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A Poll About the COVID-19 Virus

When Do You Think Things Will Get Back To Normal (you define "normal')


  • Total voters
    60
  • Poll closed .

cbyrne1174

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I don't see social distancing ending until a vaccine is made. The only way I see it ending is if one of the experimental medications drastically reduces the length of time the virus sheds in its host and significantly reduces the 14% rate of hospitalization.

If there is no medical relief, it's going to be in place until herd immunity is reached with 60%-70% infected and immune with the boomers quarantined until a vaccine is made.
 

cbyrne1174

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If you pay close attention to what Cuomo has been saying, New York is currently projecting to have about 25,000 unnecessary deaths because there aren't enough ventilators. Those deaths will all be people who are 60 and above because it's most fair to give the ventilators to the young/healthcare workers. If they follow what Italy did, first they won't allow 70+ access to a ventillator, then 60+. There's currently only enough ventilators for the projected number of people under 60. They aren't directly saying it because they don't want to create panic, but it's the sad truth. If I were 60 years old, I would currently not leave my house for ANYTHING except what I need to survive. The survival rate for a 60 year old is 95%, but that's WITH A VENTILATOR. It's probably 80% without one.

This is just like Titanic. The ship is sinking and there aren't enough life boats and soon people are going to realize it and panic is about to come. This is a lesson the world will remember for a lifetime.
 

WalnutBaron

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Because there is no vaccine--and because, unlike the flu, this virus has no known seasonality--social distancing is all we have right now to slow the thing down, let alone stop it. Expedited clinical trials are underway for a vaccine, but even with that, the soonest a vaccine could be widely available is 12-18 months from now. That is far beyond December 2020, which is why I voted for "later" as to when things finally normalize.

By the way, the economic damage will be very far-reaching. Many of the travel resorts, airline companies, cruise companies, and hotel locations we know and love will not be around by the time the dust finally settles. The world will look very different when the virus is finally defeated.
 

HitchHiker71

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I’ve written a fairly good deal about this topic on Facebook so will simply repost some of what I already wrote previously in a subsequent post to this one. Long story short, it has taken China about three months of lockdown to get things under relative control - same with South Korea. I voted for September for the US since I don’t believe we are capable of the draconian approaches used in China especially and the current behavior of a portion of our population to date is proving this to be true, so I believe it will take us longer to endure this crisis.
 

T-Dot-Traveller

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I voted Sept 2020 / but it could be like the Spanish Flu and return next year / if the virus
mutates into a deadlier version like SARS but maintains it’s ability to be infectious in individuals
who show no symptoms - we are in Mad Max-land and no one will care about the Dow Jones .
 

HitchHiker71

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When will this end?
I think the answer to your question is that our current all or nothing approach will only stay in force for about 30 days - after which we will need to deploy a much more nuanced approach as we learn more about how to proceed.

Andrew Cuomo did a very good job yesterday of explaining in some detail how we actually do what Trump is loosely referring to with regard to Easter timeframe. I would encourage everyone to watch Cuomo’s press briefing from yesterday morning.

We need a much more nuanced approach to getting people back to work - because the approach we're currently using harkens to "if you only have a hammer - everything looks like a nail." We need the newer, simpler tests that are being manufactured now that identify antibodies for people that have already had Coronavirus and are no longer contagious - basically the 80% that are asymptomatic. These are the people that can go back to work - because they are not contagious and already have immunity (hence the antibody test kits).

The overall challenge here is that we're effectively shutting down the entire economy for the 2-3% of the population that is truly vulnerable and likely to face death or serious health issues due to exposure. Hence a more nuanced approach will rapidly become necessary. The CDC is actively working on newer guidance that will deliver on what Andrew Cuomo spoke about. NYC will be on the front lines of any such approach given the population density and the need to get the city back up and running as soon as is feasible - while also ensuring no loss of life.

As Andrew Cuomo said - we can do both - preserve life while also getting people back to work that aren't at risk. As someone else said - this may mean that a subset of our population - those over age 60 and/or with known underlying health risks (high BP, cancer, lung disease, etc) will need to continue to remain under quarantine.

Even if we take a more nuanced approach - we will still take a hit economically and endure a V or U type recession - but at least we will avoid a Greater Depression type event in the process. The idea that we have to choose an either/or approach vs a both/and approach is a falsity. We can do both - we have the talent and the resources to do it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

T-Dot-Traveller

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Hitchhiker71;,
Thanks for your well written & nuanced answer .
I like it better than the trite but scary one I posted above .

I did watch the New York State governor’s news conference & think it is a starting point .

Did you notice his clothing - he was intentionally dressed as a public servant .
I hope more of our leaders - (worldwide) - accept this model and stop trying to be
political animals playing wedge politics . The economy & health of the world depends on it
 

HitchHiker71

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I voted Sept 2020 / but it could be like the Spanish Flu and return next year / if the virus
mutates into a deadlier version like SARS but maintains it’s ability to be infectious in individuals
who show no symptoms - we are in Mad Max-land and no one will care about the Dow Jones .
Well, at least from what I’ve read, there’s some good news when comparing COVID-19 to the Spanish influenza virus and other recent viruses as follows:

1. COVID-19 is not an influenza virus - it’s not in this family. It’s in the Coronavirus family - hence the name used by the media. Specifically it’s a beta coronavirus - same as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.

2. COVID-19 is actually an offshoot of the SARS virus (basically). The designation is SARS-CoV-2. The good news is it’s less lethal than SARS was, the bad news is it’s easily transmissible - it has a high contagion rate.

3. While viruses certainly mutate - this class of viruses doesn’t typically mutate quickly. It’s early so we don’t know this for certain, but this is the current assumption for now based upon the known characteristics.

4. The mortality rate is somewhere between 1-4% best estimate. So much less lethal than many other viruses - and the vast majority, roughy 80-90% of people who contract COVID-19 will have symptoms that don’t require major hospitalization. That still leaves 10-20% who do - which given the contagion rate - means this virus can and will quickly overwhelm almost any healthcare system in existence, hence the focus on quarantine and social isolation.

As you said, one of the bad parts of COVID-19 is that people can be contagious while asymptomatic or prior to showing any symptoms. This is why it spreads so quickly.

There’s other reasons to be encouraged through all of this, here’s just a few:

1. By January 7, 2020 the COVID-19 genome was mapped.

2: Several off-label drugs are in clinical trials now that may help stem the tide of the coronavirus and save lives.

3. Several vaccines are already in early clinical trials since the genome was mapped so quickly.

Without a doubt it’s going to get worse before it gets better, but it will get better, this too shall pass. In the meantime - is TUGgers should buckle down and do our part via social isolation to protect those around us.

If we do, we can flatten the curve so to speak, here’s the most recent data points in that regard:




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cbyrne1174

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Just keep in mind that if we over run the hospitals completely, a 1% death rate becomes a 14% death rate because 14% of cases require hospitalization. We do need to keep social distancing active. We need to stay isolated as to not overburden our hospitals. That's going to have to happen until a vaccine is made. No Country is completely open. Not a single Disney Park is open. I don't expect things to open soon given how contagious this virus is.
 

easyrider

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Corvid 19 has exacerbated issues regarding all assets and is a big unknown as to what happens regarding the economy. If the projections of infection of Corvid 19 are correct then the peak would be mid May. If the peak is actually mid May then the tail end of infections could be as early as fall but really, no one knows until after it happens.

Bill
 

Grammarhero

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Can we have choices for end of June and July 2020?
 

pedro47

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How can you ever forget Coronavirus, it happen in the year 2020 and in China.
 

nomoretslt

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I put April, but basing that for my area. NYC tri state metro region. I think we will reach a high peak by the weekend, and then a continual drop. Of course that all depends on whether the “youths” in the cities knock off their stupid nonsense and obey the stay at home order. Anyway that’s when I think the health issue will get back to the new normal. As for the economy, I mostly agree with the idea of older people staying home as long as they can and continue to practice social distancing, and those that can return to to work do so, but with aforesaid social distancing and better hygiene. The governor of Florida wants to put a lid on New Yorkers making a mass exodus there and is going to try and enforce a 14 day self quarantine. It’s a good idea but don’t know how that will be enforced. Lots will drive instead.

Right now we are fortunate as we are both retired. Worried about our pension fund drying up. But if the economy starts to get back to semi normal, I’m hoping things will start to look up for everyone.
 

skimeup

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Well, at least from what I’ve read, there’s some good news when comparing COVID-19 to the Spanish influenza virus and other recent viruses as follows:

1. COVID-19 is not an influenza virus - it’s not in this family. It’s in the Coronavirus family - hence the name used by the media. Specifically it’s a beta coronavirus - same as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.

2. COVID-19 is actually an offshoot of the SARS virus (basically). The designation is SARS-CoV-2. The good news is it’s less lethal than SARS was, the bad news is it’s easily transmissible - it has a high contagion rate.

3. While viruses certainly mutate - this class of viruses doesn’t typically mutate quickly. It’s early so we don’t know this for certain, but this is the current assumption for now based upon the known characteristics.

4. The mortality rate is somewhere between 1-4% best estimate. So much less lethal than many other viruses - and the vast majority, roughy 80-90% of people who contract COVID-19 will have symptoms that don’t require major hospitalization. That still leaves 10-20% who do - which given the contagion rate - means this virus can and will quickly overwhelm almost any healthcare system in existence, hence the focus on quarantine and social isolation.

As you said, one of the bad parts of COVID-19 is that people can be contagious while asymptomatic or prior to showing any symptoms. This is why it spreads so quickly.

There’s other reasons to be encouraged through all of this, here’s just a few:

1. By January 7, 2020 the COVID-19 genome was mapped.

2: Several off-label drugs are in clinical trials now that may help stem the tide of the coronavirus and save lives.

3. Several vaccines are already in early clinical trials since the genome was mapped so quickly.

Without a doubt it’s going to get worse before it gets better, but it will get better, this too shall pass. In the meantime - is TUGgers should buckle down and do our part via social isolation to protect those around us.

If we do, we can flatten the curve so to speak, here’s the most recent data points in that regard:




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I realize the graph would be tougher to display, but I sure wish I could see a linear instead of logarythmic graph. I suspect it would be more impactful to the non-mathematical sorts.
 

SmithOp

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Sobering article about the end game.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
 

TravelTime

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I think there will be a new normal. Things will not go back to being the same. I suspect people will be more concerned about viruses and there will be more social distancing over the long term. Perhaps more use of video conferencing in health care over the long term to protect health care workers and others. Hopefully more saving for emergencies (although this is unlikely since so many people live paycheck to paycheck). Some companies and industries will take a long time to recover, if ever. I think small businesses will be shattered and it may make people think twice about starting a small business. I know I am thinking of permanently downsizing to working by myself because the responsibility of employees and the overhead are too stressful. We will also have permanent economic impacts both on an individual level and on a national level. We are now trillions of dollars more in debt than before. It might mean that universal health care will become more popular but I still do not know how the country will pay for it especially now. Young people will probably struggle even more due to the economic devastation left behind from Covid-19. On the positive side, I think the government will put more funding toward infectious disease research and preparedness. I hope we will never see another crisis like this. After the 2008 Great Recession, I never thought we would see as much economic devastation but I think this crisis is much worse and will be harder to recover from.
 

Luanne

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I think more movement will happen by the end of year, but at this point I don't see us going back to "normal", at least not the normal we knew before.
 

VegasBella

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I think we won't truly 'get back to normal' for about 18 months or so. But I think there will be intermittent moments of normalcy. For instance, lockdown til end of April or May, then more normal over part of Summer, and as it resurges another lockdown... and so on until there are enough people who have had it and have immunity that the rates dramatically reduce or there's a good vaccine and people get it.
 
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