I think the answer to your question is that our current all or nothing approach will only stay in force for about 30 days - after which we will need to deploy a much more nuanced approach as we learn more about how to proceed.When will this end?
Well, at least from what I’ve read, there’s some good news when comparing COVID-19 to the Spanish influenza virus and other recent viruses as follows:I voted Sept 2020 / but it could be like the Spanish Flu and return next year / if the virus
mutates into a deadlier version like SARS but maintains it’s ability to be infectious in individuals
who show no symptoms - we are in Mad Max-land and no one will care about the Dow Jones .
I realize the graph would be tougher to display, but I sure wish I could see a linear instead of logarythmic graph. I suspect it would be more impactful to the non-mathematical sorts.Well, at least from what I’ve read, there’s some good news when comparing COVID-19 to the Spanish influenza virus and other recent viruses as follows:
1. COVID-19 is not an influenza virus - it’s not in this family. It’s in the Coronavirus family - hence the name used by the media. Specifically it’s a beta coronavirus - same as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.
2. COVID-19 is actually an offshoot of the SARS virus (basically). The designation is SARS-CoV-2. The good news is it’s less lethal than SARS was, the bad news is it’s easily transmissible - it has a high contagion rate.
3. While viruses certainly mutate - this class of viruses doesn’t typically mutate quickly. It’s early so we don’t know this for certain, but this is the current assumption for now based upon the known characteristics.
4. The mortality rate is somewhere between 1-4% best estimate. So much less lethal than many other viruses - and the vast majority, roughy 80-90% of people who contract COVID-19 will have symptoms that don’t require major hospitalization. That still leaves 10-20% who do - which given the contagion rate - means this virus can and will quickly overwhelm almost any healthcare system in existence, hence the focus on quarantine and social isolation.
As you said, one of the bad parts of COVID-19 is that people can be contagious while asymptomatic or prior to showing any symptoms. This is why it spreads so quickly.
There’s other reasons to be encouraged through all of this, here’s just a few:
1. By January 7, 2020 the COVID-19 genome was mapped.
2: Several off-label drugs are in clinical trials now that may help stem the tide of the coronavirus and save lives.
3. Several vaccines are already in early clinical trials since the genome was mapped so quickly.
Without a doubt it’s going to get worse before it gets better, but it will get better, this too shall pass. In the meantime - is TUGgers should buckle down and do our part via social isolation to protect those around us.
If we do, we can flatten the curve so to speak, here’s the most recent data points in that regard:
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