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[2020] A little stock market sense

letsgobobby

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Do not want to deal with the government and all their regulations and jerks who think they know it all. Happy just where I am and if I can help others not to get crushed with a system I devised for myself, it makes the world a better place. Because if everyone's ships don't rise, revolution is around the corner

Plus the is no reason for people to buy a hedge fund when they can do it themselves.
you are a legend in your own mind with a following of one :)
 

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Another thing I do that will freak out the know-it-all snobs who sit on Mt. Olympus looking down at the rest of us peons. I gladly and enjoy playing the game of catching a falling knife.

That means as a stock or ETF falls, I continue to buy it as it falls. We are constantly told by the experts not to do it. As usual I ignore them and do it and I get excellent results in the end.

Before commission free trades and fractional trades, it was harder to do. But now it is much easier to do.
 

Brett

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Another thing I do that will freak out the know-it-all snobs who sit on Mt. Olympus looking down at the rest of us peons. I gladly and enjoy playing the game of catching a falling knife.

That means as a stock or ETF falls, I continue to buy it as it falls. We are constantly told by the experts not to do it. As usual I ignore them and do it and I get excellent results in the end.

Before commission free trades and fractional trades, it was harder to do. But now it is much easier to do.

Keep grabbing those falling knives!
But seriously, you should be running your own mutual fund or sell your "system" and make the big bucks

'
fnd_1 (1) (1).jpg

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html
 
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Keep grabbing those falling knives!
But seriously, you should be running your own mutual fund or sell your "system" and make the big bucks

'
View attachment 105335
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html
That would mean I would have to deal with the government, lawyers, accountants and people who cannot control their spending. No thank you. I am perfectly content with my simple life and earning my 10-11% average per year over the long term and not deal with any of them. Plus, this is a simple concept that people can do for themselves and do not need me once they understand it and I am glad to share it.

But once again you are stuck with the idea that no one can beat the market. Never was my goal. The goal was to match the market without the rollercoaster ride and it can be done if you own the whole market as slices and not a pie over a bull and bear cycle. Just simple common sense that an 8th grader should understand when explain to them as a pizza pie.
 

GetawaysRus

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This may not help anybody with their investing, but I read an article recently with an interesting concept.

We'd all love to be in the market when it's rising, but then get out before it drops. The clock is counting down to the next selloff. But unfortunately, "the clock has no hands."

Cinderella could watch the clock. She knew that the deadline was midnight.

For investors, if you are hoping to watch the clock count down and exit before your investments turn into pumpkins, you're out of luck. The stock market "clock" has no hands.

If you are interested, here's a link to the full article. The section I'm mentioning is part way through the piece.

 

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Keep grabbing those falling knives!
But seriously, you should be running your own mutual fund or sell your "system" and make the big bucks

'
View attachment 105335
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html
I cannot read the article. Does it mention that they compared risk adjusted returns? The indexes have also been beaten the hedge funds because the hedge funds hedge their risk like I do.

With futures looking bad, it looks like tomorrow at 9:30 I will take 5 minutes out of my day to rotate my pizza taking profits from the bears to buy the bulls. Then the bulls come back, I will rotate the pizza again and take the profits from the bulls to buy the bears.
 

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It was a good day especially when I took profits from my Bitcoin Bear as Bitcoin was falling and parked them into my Bitcoin bull. Then watched Bitcoin rally. When Bitcoin rallied after the election I was taking the profits and parked them into the Bitcoin bear which went up this morning then fell in the afternoon.

I only had to do one rotation of the pizza today. I say profits. I only take profits. I always stay invested in an investment with a baseline. Sell if it goes over that baseline. Buy if it goes below. Don't give a damn about share price. Only care about market value
 

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Today is another example how the elite know it all snobs have no common sense or are so narcissistic that they have to complicate things with complex wording, math and trading so that you think they are smarter than you.

They do not understand how I make money when I have a bull and bear. That it evens itself out. Yeah, they are right, for the first minute then one pulls away.

Today the bull PLTR was up 23.99%. The bear PLTD was down 23.88%. A small gain of 0.11%. I did a little better of 0.16%. I pulled the 23.99 % profit and split it. Half into the PLTD and half into the treasury floating rate which is my safety net and paying over 4%.

I do not match the market during a bull market because of this but I do match it by increasing my safety net and dividends. Then when there is a bear market, I just pass it by and have the safety net and dividends to take advantage of the fire sale. Thus how I beat the market over a bull and bear cycle.

Not hard for people to do for themselves and once again it takes 5 minutes a day after you spent a few hours setting up your portfolio.
 

letsgobobby

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Today is another example how the elite know it all snobs have no common sense or are so narcissistic that they have to complicate things with complex wording, math and trading so that you think they are smarter than you.

They do not understand how I make money when I have a bull and bear. That it evens itself out. Yeah, they are right, for the first minute then one pulls away.

Today the bull PLTR was up 23.99%. The bear PLTD was down 23.88%. A small gain of 0.11%. I did a little better of 0.16%. I pulled the 23.99 % profit and split it. Half into the PLTD and half into the treasury floating rate which is my safety net and paying over 4%.

I do not match the market during a bull market because of this but I do match it by increasing my safety net and dividends. Then when there is a bear market, I just pass it by and have the safety net and dividends to take advantage of the fire sale. Thus how I beat the market over a bull and bear cycle.

Not hard for people to do for themselves and once again it takes 5 minutes a day after you spent a few hours setting up your portfolio.
i don't watch saturday night live but I do come to this thread for my weekly dose of comedy.
 

Brett

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Enjoy your laugh because I will have the last laugh over someone who thinks it is funny to share how to diversify to protect yourself.

Enjoy your last laugh - Diversify !!
(but not with rotating pizzas and falling knives ;))


.


van.jpg




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i don't watch saturday night live but I do come to this thread for my weekly dose of comedy.
Someone like this makes it so much EASIER during stock market crashes NOT TO FEEL GUILTY when others are watching their lives destroyed and I am still standing and growing
 

PigsDad

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Why work so hard? Just buy VOO and forget about it.
Oh, you just don't understand. This renter guy (girl?) is so much smarter than the rest of us. Even much smarter than 99% of professional fund managers, because s/he claims to consistently beat the market. I've wondered why s/he is not a multi-billionaire by now, as anyone who can do that along with a little leverage absolutely should be in at least the top 100 richest people on the planet. Seems like renter is slumming, hanging around with the rest of us knuckle-draggers. ;)

Kurt
 

VacationForever

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Oh, you just don't understand. This renter guy (girl?) is so much smarter than the rest of us. Even much smarter than 99% of professional fund managers, because s/he claims to consistently beat the market. I've wondered why s/he is not a multi-billionaire by now, as anyone who can do that along with a little leverage absolutely should be in at least the top 100 richest people on the planet. Seems like renter is slumming, hanging around with the rest of us knuckle-draggers. ;)

Kurt
He has never claimed to beat the market if you read what he posted earlier (not the last post). He sleeps better at night by not having all the gains the rest of us who buy S&P 500 index funds. He cannot stomach large drops as he thinks his life will be destroyed.
 
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letsgobobby

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He has never claimed to beat the market if you read what he posted earlier (not the last post). He sleeps better at night by not having all the gains the rest of us who buy S&P 500 index funds. He cannot stomach large drops as he thinks his life will be destroyed.
all he has to do his publish his audited data and someone might pay him attention. as it is he's just the thread mascot. or court jester.
 

jabberwocky

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Today is another example how the elite know it all snobs have no common sense or are so narcissistic that they have to complicate things with complex wording, math and trading so that you think they are smarter than you.

They do not understand how I make money when I have a bull and bear. That it evens itself out. Yeah, they are right, for the first minute then one pulls away.

Today the bull PLTR was up 23.99%. The bear PLTD was down 23.88%. A small gain of 0.11%. I did a little better of 0.16%. I pulled the 23.99 % profit and split it. Half into the PLTD and half into the treasury floating rate which is my safety net and paying over 4%.

I do not match the market during a bull market because of this but I do match it by increasing my safety net and dividends. Then when there is a bear market, I just pass it by and have the safety net and dividends to take advantage of the fire sale. Thus how I beat the market over a bull and bear cycle.

Not hard for people to do for themselves and once again it takes 5 minutes a day after you spent a few hours setting up your portfolio.
Yawn - you’re picking up nickles in front of a steamroller. It works for awhile - until it doesn’t and you’re giving away a big chunk of returns in the form of trading fees.

Either own the index or be prepared to do some deep fundamental analysis and then buy and hold. I bought into PLTR a couple of years ago when it got ridiculously cheap and it looked like the world was getting more dangerous (the technology and military applications are pretty amazing).

My cost basis is $7.63/share. I’ve now sold a bunch in the last week so my position is now down to a measly 350 shares (was 1500 when I bought in). With your method I would have likely missed returns of over 1000%. Problem is I now need to figure out where to put the cash.
 

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Why work so hard? Just buy VOO and forget about it.
Because you have to take the rollercoaster ride. I can match that over a Bull and Bear cycle without the rollercoaster ride and always have something up and all it takes is 5 minutes a day. I can spend 5 minutes on my life savings
 

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r
He has never claimed to beat the market if you read what he posted earlier (not the last post). He sleeps better at night by not having all the gains the rest of us who buy S&P 500 index funds. He cannot stomach large drops as he thinks his life will be destroyed.
You are correct but when a market crash comes, I will pass the index funds and beat the market over a bull and bear cycle. There are plenty of examples of people who had their life destroyed because of market crashes.
 

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Yawn - you’re picking up nickles in front of a steamroller. It works for awhile - until it doesn’t and you’re giving away a big chunk of returns in the form of trading fees.

Either own the index or be prepared to do some deep fundamental analysis and then buy and hold. I bought into PLTR a couple of years ago when it got ridiculously cheap and it looked like the world was getting more dangerous (the technology and military applications are pretty amazing).

My cost basis is $7.63/share. I’ve now sold a bunch in the last week so my position is now down to a measly 350 shares (was 1500 when I bought in). With your method I would have likely missed returns of over 1000%. Problem is I now need to figure out where to put the cash.
Good for you. But thanks, but no thanks, not for me. All I want is a steady 10% return so I am willing to not gamble and willing to give up 1000% gains when 10% gains work for me.
 

ScoopKona

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There are plenty of examples of people who had their life destroyed because of market crashes.

Or people who have the crap luck hit the age when they can start pulling equity just after a crash. "Wait for the rebound" only works so often in a lifetime.

During the housing bubble, circa 2003, my friends were pressuring me to join them purchasing multiple houses with stated-income, interest-only loans. "You just have to hold for five years and you'll DOUBLE YOUR MONEY! Just sign your name really, really large!" (The "sign your name really, really large" bit is a direct quote from one of my friends. My wife and I still say that to each other when suggesting something we know is foolhardy.)

Five years later, they lost everything and I was still on track. Same basic premise.
 

Brett

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You are correct but when a market crash comes, I will pass the index funds and beat the market over a bull and bear cycle. There are plenty of examples of people who had their life destroyed because of market crashes.
Because you have to take the rollercoaster ride. I can match that over a Bull and Bear cycle without the rollercoaster ride and always have something up and all it takes is 5 minutes a day. I can spend 5 minutes on my life savings
Good for you. But thanks, but no thanks, not for me. All I want is a steady 10% return so I am willing to not gamble and willing to give up 1000% gains when 10% gains work for me.


In a (hypothetical) 60/40 investment portfolio the 40% in fixed income (bonds and CD's) offsets the riskier 60% in the stock market to avoid the "rollercoaster"

return.jpg

https://corporate.vanguard.com/cont...global-60-40-portfolio-steady-as-it-goes.html
 

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Oh, you just don't understand. This renter guy (girl?) is so much smarter than the rest of us. Even much smarter than 99% of professional fund managers, because s/he claims to consistently beat the market. I've wondered why s/he is not a multi-billionaire by now, as anyone who can do that along with a little leverage absolutely should be in at least the top 100 richest people on the planet. Seems like renter is slumming, hanging around with the rest of us knuckle-draggers. ;)

Kurt
Obviously smarter than you if you do not understand owning everything with equal amounts is not thinking your smarter than everyone else. It is knowing you're not smarter than others so protecting your ass while growing at the same time.

Also, smarter than you if you do not understand matching or beating the market over a bull and bear cycle means. Common sense says that if you trail the market in a bull and beat it in a bear you will match it or beat it in the long run. Knowing that if you drop 50% you need 100% to get back to even makes it work.

What I am is more curious than you. I was curious what happens if you divide the pie into slices and rotate it so you are selling the hot slices and buying the cold slices. Guess what? It works. Then what I was curious if you expand the pie to include treasuries, bears, commodities and foreign. Guess what? It still works over a bull and bear cycle.

It works a lot better than a 60/40 which did not provide the protection many thought they were going to have and it matches an index without the rollercoaster ride.

So, if you cannot understand this simple concept that a 8th grader should understand, I guess I am smarter than you.
 
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