Sherpa:
I was taking a look at your spreadsheet where you calculate the effective cost per night for each club, and I think you overstate the opportunity cost portion of the cost.
1. I think the opportunity cost should only take into account the refundable portion of the initial fee. It should really only represent the investment gains lost because that refundable membership deposit is tied up in the fund. The non-refundable portion is an upfront fee that can not be recovered, so there are no investment gains to be lost on this fee. Additionally, clubs whose members can redeem their membership deposits as a percentage of the current membership fee (like Ultimate Resort) should not have any opportunity costs, as long as the current membership fee has increased at the same rate as the cost of capital.
2. The opportunity cost that you calculate is in future dollars. A dollar ten years in the future is worth significantly less today. To put everything in the same basis, you need to convert that value to current dollars using the cost of capital, or the appropriate discount rate.
Making these two adjustments, which I believe are correct, reduces the effective cost per night by 30-40% for each of the clubs. Let me know what you think.
FYI, I just joined Exclusive Resorts at the Affiliate level and am on the 60-day waiting list. Before making my decision I calculated the cost per night on my own and came up with dramatically lower numbers than Sherpa or the Helium Report, so I wanted to confirm why my numbers were so different. At the Affiliate level I calculated the cost per night to be around $1,500 over 15 years at a 6% cost of capital (Sherpa calculates $2,557). I chose Exclusive Resorts basically believe there is safety in numbers. Because of its size, I think there is much lower risk that the club will go under than other smaller clubs. The properties and locations also appealed to my wife and me more than the other clubs. I will let everyone know what I think after I make my first trip.