T_R_Oglodyte
TUG Lifetime Member
Today's press release from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the outfit that prepares projections of caseloads, deaths, and ventilator requirements for use by health personnel:
www.healthdata.org
Some "highlights":
New COVID-19 forecasts for Europe: Italy & Spain have passed the peak of their epidemics; UK, early in its epidemic, faces a fast-mounting death toll | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
New COVID-19 estimates find that, among European nations, the peak daily death rate from the pandemic will occur during the third week of April, with the pandemic spreading from Southern Europe.
www.healthdata.org
Some "highlights":
- New COVID-19 estimates find that, among European nations, the peak daily death rate from the pandemic will occur during the third week of April, with the pandemic spreading from Southern Europe.
- approximately 151,680 people will die during what researchers are calling the “first wave” of the pandemic. By comparison, the US is expected to face 81,766 deaths, according to forecasts released on Sunday by IHME.
- “It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States.”
- The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for hospital resources well in excess of what is available. For example, peak demand in the UK is expected to total 102,794 hospital beds needed compared to 17,765 available, 24,544 ICU beds compared to 799 ICU beds available, and 20,862 ventilators needed (with data currently unavailable on ventilators available).
- Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”
- Murray cautioned that easing these precautions too soon during “the first wave” of the pandemic could lead to new rounds of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. He defines the end of this “wave” as a ratio of 0.3 deaths per 1 million people. IHME’s projections assume that social distancing measures, if not currently implemented, will be implemented within one week.