• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 30 years!

    Join Tens of Thousands of other Owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered 24 hours a day!
  • TUG started 30 years ago in October 1993 as a group of regular Timeshare owners just like you!

    Read about our 30th anniversary: Happy 30th Birthday TUG!
  • TUG has a YouTube Channel to produce weekly short informative videos on popular Timeshare topics!

    Free memberships for every 50 subscribers!

    Visit TUG on Youtube!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $21,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $21 Million dollars
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free!

    60,000+ subscribing owners! A weekly recap of the best Timeshare resort reviews and the most popular topics discussed by owners!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    All T-shirt options here!
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

¿Hawaii with Both Jabs of Vaccine?

Kevsdad

TUG Member
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Messages
22
Reaction score
19
Points
213
Location
Sacramento, CA
I agree with your and csodjd's thinking here. However, on that same theme there is one thing that does bother when I hear Doctor's on TV rave about the JNJ vaccine preventing you from getting "really" sick 100% of the time with 1 shot although it is only say 65% effective in preventing you from geting the coronavirus. That would mean that if people get the JNJ vaccine they still have about a 1 in 3 chance of still getting the coronavirus, and although it would be a mild case and they wouldn't need to be hospitalized they certainly could spread it to others. So while the JNJ does reduce the hospitalizations it may not help in attaining herd ammunity!

I don’t think they still have a 1 in 3 chance of still getting COVID with JNJ. With zero vaccines less than 10% had tested positive.
Between people who’ve already had COVID (Which I believe is much higher than reported positive tests), vaccinations and the fact that some people just don’t get it if exposed, I’m hoping we will approach herd immunity in a few months.
 

Dean

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
9,909
Reaction score
3,583
Points
648
I don’t think they still have a 1 in 3 chance of still getting COVID with JNJ. With zero vaccines less than 10% had tested positive.
Between people who’ve already had COVID (Which I believe is much higher than reported positive tests), vaccinations and the fact that some people just don’t get it if exposed, I’m hoping we will approach herd immunity in a few months.
One of the problems is that the disease doesn't cause the same level of antibody response as the vaccine and thus likely isn't good long term protection.
 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
2,334
Reaction score
1,986
Points
274
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
The current vaccines, while very effective, are not foolproof. Both of the current vaccines are around 95% protective from getting severe disease but you can still contract and pass on the virus and if you're one of the 5% not protected, you can still get server disease.
I'm not sure that's correct. I believe the J&J vaccine is currently 100% effective at preventing hospitalization and death. And Israel has shown Pfizer to be highly effective at preventing infection and transmission. "The Israeli study also showed that Pfizer's vaccine was 90% effective at preventing people from passing on the virus, after two doses." https://www.businessinsider.com/pfi...accine-94-effective-israel-study-trial-2021-2

Moreover, if you and me are both vaccinated, the risk is almost zero. The 94% effective rate of preventing disease was from an environment where nobody was vaccinated. What is the effectiveness of the vaccine if 40% of the people you encounter are themselves vaccinated?

At some point in the not too distant future the greatest risk of COVID will be the risk of getting into a car accident driving to get your vaccination.
 

Tamaradarann

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2006
Messages
3,368
Reaction score
1,297
Points
548
Location
Honolulu, HI
Resorts Owned
HGVC South Beach, HGVC Las Vegas, HGVC Las Vegas on the Strip, HGVC Sea World, Misner Place
I don’t think they still have a 1 in 3 chance of still getting COVID with JNJ. With zero vaccines less than 10% had tested positive.
Between people who’ve already had COVID (Which I believe is much higher than reported positive tests), vaccinations and the fact that some people just don’t get it if exposed, I’m hoping we will approach herd immunity in a few months.

I am hoping we will approach herd immunity by summer. However, my point is that the Doctor's on TV have been praising the JNJ one shot vaccine since it is 100% in preventing serious illness which is great for the person that gets the shot since they are protected against serious illness. However, the reduced prevention of catching the coronavirus of the JNJ vaccine versus the 2 shot vaccines leaves something to be desired in the quest for the move to herd immunity since if a JNJ vaccinated person does get the coronavirus they can still spread it to others. They may even have a greater chance of spreading the virus to others since if they don't feel very ill they may continue to circulate in the public rather than staying home in bed or in a hospital.
 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
2,334
Reaction score
1,986
Points
274
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
I agree with your and csodjd's thinking here. However, on that same theme there is one thing that does bother when I hear Doctor's on TV rave about the JNJ vaccine preventing you from getting "really" sick 100% of the time with 1 shot although it is only say 65% effective in preventing you from geting the coronavirus. That would mean that if people get the JNJ vaccine they still have about a 1 in 3 chance of still getting the coronavirus, and although it would be a mild case and they wouldn't need to be hospitalized they certainly could spread it to others. So while the JNJ does reduce the hospitalizations it may not help in attaining herd ammunity!
Not exactly. It means you would have a 1 in 3 chance of getting COVID -- IF -- you were sufficiently exposed to it by a person that is contagious. But MOST people in the world, or the market, are not contagious with COVID at any given time, and, as more people get vaccinated, even fewer are contagious. So your chances of getting COVID are hugely reduced AND if you do get it there is almost no risk of it being a serious illness.
 

Dean

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
9,909
Reaction score
3,583
Points
648
I'm not sure that's correct. I believe the J&J vaccine is currently 100% effective at preventing hospitalization and death. And Israel has shown Pfizer to be highly effective at preventing infection and transmission. "The Israeli study also showed that Pfizer's vaccine was 90% effective at preventing people from passing on the virus, after two doses." https://www.businessinsider.com/pfi...accine-94-effective-israel-study-trial-2021-2

Moreover, if you and me are both vaccinated, the risk is almost zero. The 94% effective rate of preventing disease was from an environment where nobody was vaccinated. What is the effectiveness of the vaccine if 40% of the people you encounter are themselves vaccinated?

At some point in the not too distant future the greatest risk of COVID will be the risk of getting into a car accident driving to get your vaccination.
The currently listed efficacy is 72% in United States, 64% in South Africa, 61% in Latin America for J & J. Certainly the risks will diminish but I think we're looking at next year, possibly mid year, before we get to the point of herd immunity in the US. Since Pfizer is approved down to 16 and Moderna to 18, that leaves out enough to make herd immunity extremely difficult until we start vaccinating those that are younger. But we are moving in the right direction, we did almost 700 vaccines at our clinic today.
 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
2,334
Reaction score
1,986
Points
274
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
The currently listed efficacy is 72% in United States, 64% in South Africa, 61% in Latin America for J & J. Certainly the risks will diminish but I think we're looking at next year, possibly mid year, before we get to the point of herd immunity in the US. Since Pfizer is approved down to 16 and Moderna to 18, that leaves out enough to make herd immunity extremely difficult until we start vaccinating those that are younger. But we are moving in the right direction, we did almost 700 vaccines at our clinic today.
It is far more complex than that. Efficacy is not a single data point. There were multiple efficacy endpoints in the study of the J&J vaccine. So when you quote an “efficacy” it depends on what endpoint you are referring to. It peaked at over 85% in the secondary endpoints. But was 100% effective at preventing death and at preventing medical intervention, as defined in the study.

You many be right about herd immunity, but herd immunity is not, to me, a concern because that means reaching the point where those that choose NOT to be vaccinated obtain protection because enough people were vaccinated. I’m more concerned about protection for those that choose to protect themselves, and those relatively few that don’t have a choice. Frankly, I don’t have a lot of empathy or patience for those that choose to “take the risk.” Moreover, I don’t think we should shut down businesses or economies to protect those that choose not to protect themselves. We’ve all borne great sacrifice the past 12 months to try and protect one another. Now that there is a vaccine available, it’s time to carefully reopen things.
 

Attachments

  • VRBPAC-02.26.21-Meeting-Briefing-Document-FDA.pdf
    979.7 KB · Views: 1

Dean

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
9,909
Reaction score
3,583
Points
648
It is far more complex than that. Efficacy is not a single data point. There were multiple efficacy endpoints in the study of the J&J vaccine. So when you quote an “efficacy” it depends on what endpoint you are referring to. It peaked at over 85% in the secondary endpoints. But was 100% effective at preventing death and at preventing medical intervention, as defined in the study.

You many be right about herd immunity, but herd immunity is not, to me, a concern because that means reaching the point where those that choose NOT to be vaccinated obtain protection because enough people were vaccinated. I’m more concerned about protection for those that choose to protect themselves, and those relatively few that don’t have a choice. Frankly, I don’t have a lot of empathy or patience for those that choose to “take the risk.” Moreover, I don’t think we should shut down businesses or economies to protect those that choose not to protect themselves. We’ve all borne great sacrifice the past 12 months to try and protect one another. Now that there is a vaccine available, it’s time to carefully reopen things.
Certainly it's complex, far too complex to pinpoint here and the answers will change over time. I do agree that I'm less concerned about those that decide to take the risk though I still care for them as well, but that assumes that everyone has had the vaccine and that everyone who's had the vaccine is protected which is clearly not going to be the case. Herd immunity will reduce the risk dramatically for those that can't be vaccinated, haven't yet had the opportunity or decide not to accept it for whatever reason. Personally I've never felt we should shut everything down because I'm as or more concerned about the economics as I am the medical but I know everyone has their set points on the balance between those 2 issues.
 

controller1

TUG Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2017
Messages
3,042
Reaction score
1,940
Points
298
Location
Tulsa
Resorts Owned
Westin KORVN OF
Westin Nanea OF
Westin FLEX
The current vaccines, while very effective, are not foolproof. Both of the current vaccines are around 95% protective from getting severe disease but you can still contract and pass on the virus and if you're one of the 5% not protected, you can still get server disease. Thus we have to get to the level of herd immunity to be effective in true control and that appears to be somewhere in the range of 80% vaccinated.

As for those that can't get the vaccine, that pool is very small. The only true contraindication for the vaccine is an allergic reaction to the vaccine or one of it's components. This will be an extremely small number of people and will be mostly those that gone one dose and thus have the potential for protection even then.

I think it is going to take some time for the U.S. to get to 80% vaccinated. In our state only 40% of people of color are opting to get the vaccine. If that percentage holds it will be difficult to reach 80% vaccinated for the population as a whole.
 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
2,334
Reaction score
1,986
Points
274
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
I think it is going to take some time for the U.S. to get to 80% vaccinated. In our state only 40% of people of color are opting to get the vaccine. If that percentage holds it will be difficult to reach 80% vaccinated for the population as a whole.
We may never get to 80%, nor do we necessarily need to. We need to get there with the vulnerable -- over 70, diabetic, etc. Doubt we get anywhere near 80% that with flu, and it kills 10's of thousands every year. I think the reasonable goal is to get COVID suppressed to where it is no worse or riskier than flu for most people. Between vaccines and treatments we should be there in months, not years. There may be thousands that die every year from COVID. That's unfortunate, but it's life and many of those will die because they CHOSE not to avail themselves of a vaccine. I suspect without the extreme mitigation efforts we'd have lost several million to COVID. That justified the extreme measures. But that risk is now gone. By June or July COVID will just another virus physicians have to consider in a sick patient. It will not be the disease killing millions it was in 2020.

Now it's time to get back to visiting Hawaii....
 

bobpark56

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2008
Messages
1,694
Reaction score
375
Points
444
Location
Gibsonia, PA (just north of Pittsburgh)
Resorts Owned
Westin Lagunamar, Westin Aventuras, Marriott Grande Vista, Sandos Caracol, Festiva, Diamond Resorts (Hawaii Collection)
We got our first shot yesterday and believe in getting vacinated so we don't get the virus.
The better reason for getting the vaccine is so that you don't pass it on to others. That's how to defeat a pandemic.
 

dougp26364

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
14,481
Reaction score
3,155
Points
698
Location
Kansas
Resorts Owned
Marriott Grand Chateau
Marriott Shadow Ridge
Marriott Ocean Pointe
Marriott Destination Club Points
Hilton Grand Vacation Club Las Vegas Blvd
Grand Colorado on Peak 8
Spinnaker French Quarter Resort Branson
Wearing masks, social distancing, and frequent hand washing/sanitizer has about wiped out the Flu this year in the USA.

Maybe....maybe not

There is a theory about competing viruses and how they tend to not overlap. The example given was how rhinovirus dies out/down as influenza cases begin to rise. The concern is that this new virus may replace the seasonal flu if I understand the discussion correctly.

Full disclosure, I haven’t actually had the opportunity to read any of the studies, only a few blurbs from semi-reliable sources. But I find the theory interesting.
 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
2,334
Reaction score
1,986
Points
274
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
The better reason for getting the vaccine is so that you don't pass it on to others. That's how to defeat a pandemic.
They are both very good reasons to get the vaccine!

There's one more good reason. I can tell you that, for myself, now fully vaccinated, it makes going out, taking the mask off to eat, engaging with people, etc., less stressful. I flew this past week for work, rented a car, went to restaurants, stayed in a hotel, and spent 8 hours a day in a conference room (everyone was masked)... and never had any concern that I was taking any particular risk.
 

Dean

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
9,909
Reaction score
3,583
Points
648
I think it is going to take some time for the U.S. to get to 80% vaccinated. In our state only 40% of people of color are opting to get the vaccine. If that percentage holds it will be difficult to reach 80% vaccinated for the population as a whole.
There are several roadblocks to getting to the level of herd immunity including this issue, age approved to vaccinate and vaccine availability. I do think we'll eventually get there and that those who are reluctant will come around or at least a percentage of them. I suspect at some point that some employers will make it a condition of employment and could even see some making it a condition of participation (including schools). But I also think there will be other encouragements such as the ability to fly/travel or other activities without testing if vaccinated. Also realize that even when medications or vaccines are fully approved there are often issues that come up later that were not discovered through several years of study. While I agree with the process, we've certainly rushed these vaccines out and allowed their use without the usual stringent study requirements. We'll be learning new things about this disease and the vaccine for decades.
 

Tamaradarann

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2006
Messages
3,368
Reaction score
1,297
Points
548
Location
Honolulu, HI
Resorts Owned
HGVC South Beach, HGVC Las Vegas, HGVC Las Vegas on the Strip, HGVC Sea World, Misner Place
The better reason for getting the vaccine is so that you don't pass it on to others. That's how to defeat a pandemic.

In my 5:21 post today I expressed thoughts about the JNJ vaccine that are in concert with this post here.
 

gdrj

Guest
Joined
Mar 9, 2019
Messages
92
Reaction score
31
Points
28
I was using the word “inconvenience” in a broad way, to include bars closed, schools closed, indoor dining restricted or closed, required testing to travel, quarantines, inability to have in-person activities (like court trials, board meetings, etc), and even being required to wear a mask to see your doctor, or fly 12 hours. Broadly, when we had no ability to prevent disease, we needed to do these things to protect ourselves and others. It was, IMO, a moral responsibility. However, when we DO have the ability to prevent disease, I do not believe we have amoral responsibility to protect those that CHOOSE not to avail themselves of the ability to prevent disease.

That’s not to say you may CHOOSE to wear a mask, or socially distance, if you want to. I’m speaking of legal requirements to do so. If you own a retail business and WANT to reduce capacity, that’s fine. But you should not be required to do so because some people refuse to be vaccinated.

The question was not directed to “right now,” it was directed to that time when all that want to be vaccinated have been or had the opportunity to be vaccinated. My guess is that’s early summer.

I also base my view on the understanding and belief that the tools now available — the three vaccines approved in the US — are 100% effective at eliminating death and hospitalization from COVID. In other words, they effective diminish the seriousness of COVID and make it, in the WORST case, akin to but even less risk than the flu. So if you are unfortunate and fall in the 5% that still get COVID, it’ll be annoying and not much more.

I also base it on the belief — which is actually pretty strongly held — that the vaccines do largely eliminate transmission. I think the evidence is increasingly convincing (in particular out of Israel) that that’s the case.

I hope you enjoy your trip. I think having been vaccinated you’ll be able to make that trip with FAR less stress or concern. If you’re like me, you’ll probably wear your mask, and be thinking, man, I’m fully vaccinated, I sure wish I didn’t have to do this. I no longer have any fear of COVID, either getting it or giving it to another. Let’s all get vaccinated and get back to the messed up world we’re all used to.

Thank you for the thoughtful response. I hope that the vaccines do end up showing more than 3 months of protection. I also appreciate that it will take time for everyone to get vaccinated. I personally, even with being vaccinated, will probably still be hesitant to go into overly crowded restaurants etc., for some time.
 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
2,334
Reaction score
1,986
Points
274
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
Thank you for the thoughtful response. I hope that the vaccines do end up showing more than 3 months of protection. I also appreciate that it will take time for everyone to get vaccinated. I personally, even with being vaccinated, will probably still be hesitant to go into overly crowded restaurants etc., for some time.
Well, unless you're reveling in spring break in Florida, I expect the ramp up in restaurants to be gradual and it may be a very long time before they feel (or are) packed like they used to be. Like lots of things, I think we'll get 80% back quickly, but that last 20% will take time.

That said, we had to wait for a table at Dukes in Waikiki on a nothing special mid-week day a few weeks ago, so it wasn't like it was empty. We're headed back March 27, and our plane shows as essentially full (I think there were a couple of seats still available), as is our return flight two weeks later. Our flights were perhaps half full a few weeks ago. So I'll be very curious to see how crowded Waikiki and Maui are in the Spring Break time period compared with later Jan/early Feb., especially considering there are few visitors from Japan or S. Korea since they have to quarantine when they return home.
 
Top