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U.S. Births Dip to 30-Year Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

TravelTime

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Your post reflects the new (current) normal. People all have to take a position on everything that happens. Are you for it or against it? Are you red or blue? Are you conservative or progressive? Did you update your facebook picture with the the newest cause? (because if you didn't, that means you're against it!)

Facts are no longer important, it's all about what side you are on or what your point is. Richard posts lots of articles to give (hopefully) facts and perspective on things happening in the world that you may not have seen in the finely screened regular news. I often have beefs with some slanted headlines, but I appreciate his posts that allow us to delve deeper into things we hadn't considered.

This is the first post that I have seen from Richard. It was not news to me. I stay up to date in what is happening and know the facts vs "fake news." I am well aware of which countries are below and above replacement rate. It is sad to me that we need "Richard" to post for us. We should be sophisticated and educated enough to know these things already. I read widely so this was not news to me. It is sad to me that most people do not read reputable media and they get their news on Facebook and through news alerts on their phones. I pay and subscribe to many reputable news sources - of various political slants. But even then, I need to use my brain to figure out what are facts vs propaganda.
 
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Carol C

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Okay at the risk of getting political...I think the phrase financially stable is often in the eye of the beholder. Besides bad luck and bad market timing can change overnight the stability of a family. Isn't there a President that went through several bankruptcies?
 

Carol C

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Quick question...does China still limit the number of kids a couple can have? I wonder if population control allowed them to become an economic powerhouse over a few short decades. Btw I am not for government decree of the size of a family...just wondering if it worked out for China economically. After all kids do cost families...and governments...money if you're gonna raise them to be productive. Comments?
 

am1

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Quick question...does China still limit the number of kids a couple can have? I wonder if population control allowed them to become an economic powerhouse over a few short decades. Btw I am not for government decree of the size of a family...just wondering if it worked out for China economically. After all kids do cost families...and governments...money if you're gonna raise them to be productive. Comments?

Not sure but just read about how Chinese men need to import a bride or pay dearly for one while a lot have given up on getting married.
 

TravelTime

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China abandoned the one child rule. It was a disaster. Now they have too many unmarried men and girls are a premium. You can’t even adopt from China anymore unless the child has major physical issues. China is also having a replacement problem since their “one child” concept was so successfully ingrained into the culture. Now China is trying to encourage people to have more children. Lower population growth tends to be bad economically and China is recognizing that. BTW, many countries in Asia are economically successful and they did not have a one child rule. Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea are all economic powerhouses, just smaller countries so they do not rank as high for total GDP but rank very high for GDP per capita. Taiwan’s economy is the same as Germany’s in GDP, believe it or not. Taiwan and Germany are tied at #20.
 
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"Roger"

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China eased its one child policy in 2013 and dropped it in 2015. Many of the children from the one child policy, however, are now choosing to have only one child. In part, this is from a desire to concentrate their economic resources on a single child (much like what they themselves experienced) and in part because their parents who supported them are now living longer and are in need of support themselves. China's current birth rate is still well below replacement rate (about 1.7 with 2.1 the replacement rate). Given the longer life spans due to better economics and better medical care, China has an expanding elderly population. (China is not alone is facing this difficulty, although from a personal perspective, I do not consider is a difficulty. I'm all for older people living longer, or, at least, some older people.)

Book recommendation: Young China. Excellent read.
 

davidvel

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This is the first post that I have seen from Richard. It was not news to me. I stay up to date in what is happening and know the facts vs "fake news." I am well aware of which countries are below and above replacement rate. It is sad to me that we need "Richard" to post for us. We should be sophisticated and educated enough to know these things already. I read widely so this was not news to me. It is sad to me that most people do not read reputable media and they get their news on Facebook and through news alerts on their phones. I pay and subscribe to many reputable news sources - of various political slants. But even then, I need to use my brain to figure out what are facts vs propaganda.
I am glad you are well versed on replacement rate. I sure am not. Not everyone is as sophisticated or educated as everyone else, but I see no propaganda in this article and it was news to me. Your argument about us "needing" these posts is a straw man.

I generally agree that too many people stop at the headline, and many articles are fluff and filler, if not intentionally slanted. I have pointed this out in some of Richard's links previously. But in general, his links are to unique and interesting articles, and I don't think he posts for political reasons.

This being a first and unfavorable experience with these types of posts from Richard, you should definitely stay out of the Lounge or you'll see a few of these a day. :doh:
 

TravelTime

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I am glad you are well versed on replacement rate. I sure am not. Not everyone is as sophisticated or educated as everyone else, but I see no propaganda in this article and it was news to me. Your argument about us "needing" these posts is a straw man.

I generally agree that too many people stop at the headline, and many articles are fluff and filler, if not intentionally slanted. I have pointed this out in some of Richard's links previously. But in general, his links are to unique and interesting articles, and I don't think he posts for political reasons.

This being a first and unfavorable experience with these types of posts from Richard, you should definitely stay out of the Lounge or you'll see a few of these a day. :doh:

Actually, maybe my comments were misinterpreted. I liked Richard's post. I was just confused as to why he posted it without any comments. To me, the population replacement problem is a very important issue that affects economics and the environment - both pro and con. I did not know Richard is a "rock star" on TUG. Now I know and in the future I will understand why he is posting. LOL :cheer:
 

silentg

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Ironically, I agree. Older middle class to rich people should be willing to give up their social security check to solve this problem. It is sad to me that many of my well-off friends are locked into getting their SS check so they can finance vacation. I would happily give up my SS check to make the government solvent, assuming we can get a well run government.
The so called Older Middle Class to Rich People? We have contributed to Social Security all of our working lives. That money is ours. The government should never tap into that money.( they already have). If we put the same money in a bank it would be there for us to use. Social Security is a big factor in our retirement plans. Not a vacation fund !
Silentg
 

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The so called Older Middle Class to Rich People? We have contributed to Social Security all of our working lives. That money is ours. The government should never tap into that money.( they already have). If we put the same money in a bank it would be there for us to use. Social Security is a big factor in our retirement plans. Not a vacation fund !
Silentg

Thats not how social security works. You have to share what you contributed with others. I do not agree with it and have opted out of that and cpp.
 

turkel

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You can't opt out of paying into social security.

You can,however, work in a profession that doesn't pay into social security i.e. State and government employees.

Top earners pay the most into SS but percentage wise compared to their salaries receive less than lower income workers.

I see nothing wrong with receiving SS and using it for vacations or however one wants when a lifetime of payments have been payed in.

On the fertility issue the first thought that comes to mind as an experienced Infertility nurse is this: keep you kids and grandkids out of the Jacuzzi it cooks their reproductive organs. My DH is forever telling me to mind my own business when the little ones come into the Jacuzzi..... I just can't stand to see it, especially the little boys. I liken it to boiling their b...s, those organs have no protection. Off my soap box now.
 

Passepartout

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We seem to have several issues here, all bundled into one thread! Amazing!

Richard reads widely, and shares topics he feels are worthy of sharing. Some with commentary, but most just attributed to sources where found.

Low birth rate. Interesting. People choose the correct size of their own family based on many things, including both fertility, and if able to choose, their confidence in the world they perceive their offspring will experience in their lifetimes. 'Nuff said on that.

Social Security. One important 'leg' of the 3 legged support system most of us rely on in retirement. Think of it as a retirement annuity, worth from several hundreds of thousands of dollars to close to a million if one had to pay for such an annuity on the private market. And nobody says you can't spend the income on whatever you want. Rent & utilities, candy, boats & cars, or timeshare travel.

So be it. Soapbox mode: OFF.

Jim
 

turkel

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Ironically, I agree. Older middle class to rich people should be willing to give up their social security check to solve this problem. It is sad to me that many of my well-off friends are locked into getting their SS check so they can finance vacation. I would happily give up my SS check to make the government solvent, assuming we can get a well run government.

Nobody?
 

klpca

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PigsDad

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Older middle class to rich people should be willing to give up their social security check to solve this problem. It is sad to me that many of my well-off friends are locked into getting their SS check so they can finance vacation. I would happily give up my SS check to make the government solvent, assuming we can get a well run government.
For anyone who want to put their money where their mouth is, I say go for it:

Can you donate money to the federal government?

Kurt
 

TravelTime

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For anyone who want to put their money where their mouth is, I say go for it:

Can you donate money to the federal government?

Kurt

That would be a waste! LOL Better to donate to Bill Gates Foundation LOL again!

But since I did make the comment about giving up SS, I would be okay with that if everyone did it and the government could come up with a 401K program where the money you put in is actually earmarked for you. Frankly, by the time I reach the age to collect SS, there probably won't be any money left anyway. The SS website already says by 2030, people will only be getting 75% of their expected benefit. And it will probably go down even more as we reach retirement age. So we have not factored SS into our retirement plans.

I was exaggerating about people using SS for vacations. I do not really care how people use their money. This is not a hot button issue for me, other than those of us who have been contributing our entire working life will probably end up with nothing. But since they cap the max you can get anyway, it is not all the useful to high earners. But it is critical to low income folks and the many Americans without retirement savings.

We plan to save our SS checks, if we get any, for our children to fund their non-existent retirement. There will certainly be no SS for our kids and grandkids.
 
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Passepartout

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We plan to save our SS checks, if we get any, for our children to fund their non-existent retirement. There will certainly be no SS for our kids and grandkids.
They don't cut physical checks anymore (long term). It's all distributed by bank transfer. And as long as your kids and grands pay their FICA tax, there will be Social Security. Even at the worst doom and gloom predictions of nothing being done to extend SS's payouts, they will last at current levels into the 2030's. A fairly painless extension of the withholding into higher learning Americans, and/or extending the age people start collecting it will add decades to the full payouts.

A better plan is to make sure your kids and grands earn enough to 'feather their own nests'. Education gives them such a guarantee.
 

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Not exactly. I have paid In to both. Not sure how one opts out of cpp while still earning in Canada. Maybe a few years before I hit 65 I will start paying into one or both again to up my quotas With the least time value of money invested.

am1 is in Canada.
 
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