Travel Package Cost Analysis (Post 8/2018)

[StevenTing]

I finally have time to look at the new travel packages. I know many of us cashed out points for certificates and mileage. The new program isn't as good as it was previously. Below is what I came up with for both the 5 night and 7 night packages. Image also attached.

The assumptions used:

• 3 points per mile.
• Prices based off Standard cost.
• 5th night free with points.
• 5,000 bonus Miles when spending 60,000 Points (20,000 Miles)
• Packages based on MVC Owner Specials
  • https://owners.marriottvacationclub.com/timeshare/mvco/marriottRewardsOwnerSpecials

Here are the takeaways based on the numbers.

• Peak rate can enhance the value difference up to a max of 90K points for any category.
• The 5 night package saves you 10k-20k more points compared to the 7 night package.
• The greatest savings (70k points) come with a 5 night certificate package for Cat 4 and 5.
• In general, all 50k Packages have poor value compared to the individual components.
  • 5 Night 50k Package in Cat 8 cost more than the individual components.
  • 7 Night 50K package in a Cat 6, 7, 8 cost more than the individual components
  • 7 Night 100k Package in a Cat 8 is the same cost as the individual components.

 

[kds4]

Always love to see numbers crunched. So, do your conclusions mean:

You recommend a TP for peak season travel, or not?
If so, to any category or only certain ones?
Can you clarify what you mean in the 3rd bullet regarding 130k?
The 4th bullet takeaway seems to be that if you want 100k miles, you might as well go ahead and redeem a Cat 1-4 TP (assumingly because you are going to be dropping 300k points anyway)?

 

[StevenTing]

Always love to see numbers crunched. So, do your conclusions mean:

You recommend a TP for peak season travel, or not?
If so, to any category or only certain ones?
Can you clarify what you mean in the 3rd bullet regarding 130k?
The 4th bullet takeaway seems to be that if you want 100k miles, you might as well go ahead and redeem a Cat 1-4 TP (assumingly because you are going to be dropping 300k points anyway)?

I don't know if we even know what is considered Peak season yet for point stays.
Purchasing a Cat 4 or 5 Certificate with 100k miles will save you 130k points compared to purchasing miles and the rooms separately.
For Example, the 100k Miles will cost you 300,000 points plus another 100,000 points for the 5 nights for a total of 400,000 points. The package will cost you 270,000 points for a savings of 130,000 points.

For the 4th bullet, correct. 100k Miles only will cost you 300K points. The 5 night package will cost you 270k points. You save 30k points plus get a 5 night cert.

 

[kds4]

I don't know if we even know what is considered Peak season yet for point stays.
Purchasing a Cat 4 or 5 Certificate with 100k miles will save you 130k points compared to purchasing miles and the rooms separately.
For Example, the 100k Miles will cost you 300,000 points plus another 100,000 points for the 5 nights for a total of 400,000 points. The package will cost you 270,000 points for a savings of 130,000 points.

For the 4th bullet, correct. 100k Miles only will cost you 300K points. The 5 night package will cost you 270k points. You save 30k points plus get a 5 night cert.

Got it. All good stuff. Now, we'll have to wait for the peak award charts to be added (which may actually end up driving people more toward the purchase of TPs).

 

[Fasttr]

Good work Steven....your attachment was worth printing.

 

[StevenTing]

Good work Steven....your attachment was worth printing.

I just added a zip file with the Excel spreadsheet. Should make for a better print and you can double check my math.

 

[skifast]

Steven -
Appreciate all your work and insights over the years, but I believe you missed something in your analysis.
I was under the impression that when cashing in Bonvoy points for airline miles there were 5,000 bonus miles for every 60,000 points redeemed - meaning at 3:1, 60,000 points equal 20,000 miles plus 5,000 bonus miles for a total of 25,000 miles. Times 4 to get 100,000 miles would be a cost of 240,000 Bonvoy points.
This will change your analysis.

 

[StevenTing]

Steven -
Appreciate all your work and insights over the years, but I believe you missed something in your analysis.
I was under the impression that when cashing in Bonvoy points for airline miles there were 5,000 bonus miles for every 60,000 points redeemed - meaning at 3:1, 60,000 points equal 20,000 miles plus 5,000 bonus miles for a total of 25,000 miles. Times 4 to get 100,000 miles would be a cost of 240,000 Bonvoy points.
This will change your analysis.

You are right. I did forget that. I’ll factor that into my spreadsheet and graphic tomorrow. I may make a separate column as I don’t know if the bonus miles are a permanent thing. The bonus miles will make a huge difference on the 100K mileage redemption. It’ll still be significant in the 50k mileage as well.

 

[kds4]

Steven -
Appreciate all your work and insights over the years, but I believe you missed something in your analysis.
I was under the impression that when cashing in Bonvoy points for airline miles there were 5,000 bonus miles for every 60,000 points redeemed - meaning at 3:1, 60,000 points equal 20,000 miles plus 5,000 bonus miles for a total of 25,000 miles. Times 4 to get 100,000 miles would be a cost of 240,000 Bonvoy points.
This will change your analysis.

Good catch. I missed that as well.

 

[dioxide45]

I think the 5,000 mile bonus is a carry over from the SPG program. As far as I know it is permanent, but as with anything it can change.

 

[Mr. Vker]

Do we know if TP certs can be used when hotels are charging peak points or will standard awards have to be available?

 

[Big Matt]

The problem is that category 4 (and even 5) aren't great properties. The exception is going to areas that aren't travel destinations to begin with like Kansas City or Omaha, or staying at lower end brands in places like Orlando.

 

[kds4]

The problem is that category 4 (and even 5) aren't great properties. The exception is going to areas that aren't travel destinations to begin with like Kansas City or Omaha, or staying at lower end brands in places like Orlando.

Depends. There are several full-service Marriott properties in the UK and Australia that are still Cat 4 as well as a fair number of Westins. Also, 3 of the MVC resorts - Willow Ridge, Paris, and Bali Nusa Dua, are Cat 4. I stayed at the Marriott Reforma in Mexico City a few months back and it was top notch (still Cat. 4).

 

[StevenTing]

I have updated the image and the spreadsheet in my original post. I also updated my findings after factoring in the 5k bonus miles. It really changes the packages. The best value is if you're doing a Cat 4 or Cat 5 package with 100k Miles. The 5 night is slightly better than the 7 night. But overall, they really suck now.

I did not factor in the United 10% bonus on miles. I figure people can easily do the 10% calculation.

 

[Steve Fatula]

I have updated the image and the spreadsheet in my original post. I also updated my findings after factoring in the 5k bonus miles. It really changes the packages. The best value is if you're doing a Cat 4 or Cat 5 package with 100k Miles. The 5 night is slightly better than the 7 night. But overall, they really suck now.

I did not factor in the United 10% bonus on miles. I figure people can easily do the 10% calculation.

The cat5 isn't bad. The 10% United bonus doesn't really change the math, just the heading, i.e. 110k instead of 100k. 25k point savings isn't a ton, but not too awful imho. If you need the miles and were going to do just miles, it can make sense.

 

[mdurette]

Great info - I just hit 390K points for my goal of a 7 night plus 100,000 Southwest miles - category 5.

The issue I keep having is for the trip I plan on using the nights for is only 4 nights. I keep wondering if I'm better off just doing the 3 for 1 and redeem for miles and have the left over points to book individual nights. (I don't own MVC so can't take advantage of 5 night option)

Your info will help me in that decision. Thank you.

 

[StevenTing]

Great info - I just hit 390K points for my goal of a 7 night plus 100,000 Southwest miles - category 5.

The issue I keep having is for the trip I plan on using the nights for is only 4 nights. I keep wondering if I'm better off just doing the 3 for 1 and redeem for miles and have the left over points to book individual nights. (I don't own MVC so can't take advantage of 5 night option)

Your info will help me in that decision. Thank you.

In your situation, booking the individual components would save you 10K points.

However, depending on your resort, you might as well consider paying cash. Your 4 night stay pretty much negates all benefits. If you were able to book a 5 night package, that would be the way to go. If you didn't need the mileage you could probably strike a deal with another owner. You transfer them 100k points, they book a 5 Night Package with 100K miles for 310k points. They let you use the 5 night package.

In this case, you spent 100K points for 4 nights in a Cat 5 (Saving 40k Points) and the other person got 100k miles for 210k points (Saving 30k points).

 

[Quilter]

In your situation, booking the individual components would save you 10K points.

However, depending on your resort, you might as well consider paying cash. Your 4 night stay pretty much negates all benefits. If you were able to book a 5 night package, that would be the way to go. If you didn't need the mileage you could probably strike a deal with another owner. You transfer them 100k points, they book a 5 Night Package with 100K miles for 310k points. They let you use the 5 night package.

In this case, you spent 100K for 4 nights in a Cat 5 (Saving 40k Points) and the other person got 100k points for 210k points (Saving 30k points).

Hi Steven,

Great thread. Since I haven't dug into the new travel packages or looked at your spreadsheets yet I'm lost. Still it's a great thread because when I get around to looking I know it will all make sense.

You may want to edit the above post. I had to read the last sentence about 5 times to realize it should be 100k "miles" for 210k points. . . right?

 

[Big Matt]

The 5 night is slightly better than the 7 night. But overall, they really suck now.

Bingo

 

[Big Matt]

Depends. There are several full-service Marriott properties in the UK and Australia that are still Cat 4 as well as a fair number of Westins. Also, 3 of the MVC resorts - Willow Ridge, Paris, and Bali Nusa Dua, are Cat 4. I stayed at the Marriott Reforma in Mexico City a few months back and it was top notch (still Cat. 4).

Thanks for that information. I really don't have a lot of experience traveling outside of the US.

 

[Steve Fatula]

Since this was a recent thread, I came across more information that changes this analysis, from Mr Vker. See this site:

https://frequentmiler.boardingarea.com/marriott-travel-packages-in-a-peak-world-good-value/

So, this says that travel packages are a flat rate. Therefore, when a package is used during PEAK pricing, it does not require any changes or more points, so, the value becomes better. I would assume most people who buy them will likely use them during peak pricing. So, they may be of more value than we all thought.

 

[StevenTing]

The results of my analysis is still the same. I already factored in the peak pricing which can provide up to a 90k point savings compared to the individual components.

 

[Steve Fatula]

Well, 90k isn't bad, you had said they "really suck now". They are bad for sure with off season pricing. Even with standard pricing not so great, but 90k is nothing to ignore right? Why would I not use one if it saves 90k?

I guess I missed the peak column.

 

[Big Matt]

Well, 90k isn't bad, you had said they "really suck now". They are bad for sure with off season pricing. Even with standard pricing not so great, but 90k is nothing to ignore right? Why would I not use one if it saves 90k?

I guess I missed the peak column.

I agree IF you can figure out how to use the hotel part. I've found that to be somewhat difficult since I'm really used to staying in timeshares.

 

[kds4]

I agree IF you can figure out how to use the hotel part. I've found that to be somewhat difficult since I'm really used to staying in timeshares.

One option is using them at MVCI properties (ranging from Category 4 to Category 7) and paying a points upgrade charge to get the size unit you want (if larger than a studio) at 5k points per night per upgrade level from Studio to 1BR, 2BR, or even 3BR.