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Tourism down?

Discussion in 'Mexico Timesharing' started by hurnik, Apr 2, 2019.

  1. hurnik

    hurnik TUG Member

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    https://www.flyertalk.com/articles/mexico-doesnt-want-to-advertise-to-tourists-any-longer.html

    I'm mostly interested to see if others observations are the same as this articles in that:

    Tourism is down (less people), especially around spring break time (I think that mostly happened already). I personally don't see lower attendance at Spring break being a bad thing (one of the reasons I've historically avoided anywhere during spring break is the amount of people--LOL).

    I don't wish to get into the politics part of the above, but am mostly interested in:

    1) If visitors are down, I wonder if places like Vidanta will adjust their fees accordingly (although none of us really have any way of knowing if their visitors are down, and it's possible with the Cirque stuff going on, they will offset any losses with local/nationals visiting instead).

    2) Will this mean there will be better deals for those of us who wish to travel to Mexico?
     
  2. Karen G

    Karen G Moderator

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    Thank you for that! As a gentle reminder to anyone else who wishes to comment on this topic, no politics, please.
     
  3. Eric B

    Eric B TUG Member

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    It's interesting to see that the article you linked to merely provides generalizations without any sort of data to back them up. I did a quick search and found some info on what the trends really are (e.g., at https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/tourist-arrivals). No idea how good the data is or what their predictions are based upon, but at least it's something. My personal experience with making reservations for next February at Vidanta is that it's still just as difficult as it's been in the past. Couldn't say anything about the Spring break season, though, because that's not my thing, either. Bottom line to me seems to be that there has been a slight decrease in tourist numbers in Mexico recently, which I believe would continue despite the projected increase on the trading economics site I found if there is a recession happening, and the yield curve is still inverted (economics is what I'm looking at, not politics, but feel free to edit this if you need to). There also appears to be a lot of high end resort construction going on. If there is a recession, I could see better deals resulting through folks wanting to get out of existing upper tier RTU resorts in Mexico (e.g., the Monte Cristo Estates one that @whitewater just gave away), but I don't think the new high end ones will get much less expensive because they are being marketed to people that are more recession-proof.
     
  4. jlp879

    jlp879 TUG Review Crew: Expert TUG Member

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  5. DannyTS

    DannyTS TUG Member

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    "The predictions for 2019 indicate a 5.8 percent increase in international tourist arrivals and a 4.3 percent jump in spending. In total, tourism contributes 8.7 percent of Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP).

    Torruco Marques spoke about Mexico’s rise to become the sixth most visited country in the world, with tourism numbers climbing last year by 3.4 percent to a record-breaking 39.3 million foreign visitors."

    https://www.travelpulse.com/news/de...5-million-international-visitors-in-2019.html
     
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  6. holdaer

    holdaer TUG Member

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    If tourism is down, why is airfare sky high? I used to get RT from Houston to anywhere in Mexico for around $300. Now, I’m looking to find anything below $500.
     
  7. DannyTS

    DannyTS TUG Member

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  8. T-Dot-Traveller

    T-Dot-Traveller TUG Member

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    In my opinion - Vidanta and other Mexican resorts are at full capacity from Christmas to Easter
    as Eric says “Feb is just as difficult “

    It is hard to grow above 100% full . If there are any increases in deals - they will be in the other
    8 months . There are good deals for those months already ........
     
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  9. PamMo

    PamMo Tug Review Crew: Rookie TUG Member

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    The FlyerTalk article was poorly written. The writer gave vague, grossly misleading and inaccurate reasons for the imminent demise of tourism in Mexico. Cancun's numbers might be down a bit from their highs, but Mexico had a record-setting 41.4 million international tourists in 2018 (up 5.5% from 2017). Los Cabos had a spate of drug-related violent crime in 2017, which hit local tourism hard. Law enforcement was stepped up, and tourists flooded back in 2018. So far, 2019 numbers look even better.

    The end of the Tourism Council is worrisome to some, but the plan is to make the tourist industry take on more of the cost for international advertising. The CPTM's budget will be shifted to targeted tourism projects. The verdict is out on how/whether that will work.

    Here's a different take on the Flyer Talk article's "crisis" in Mexico tourism.

    https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/government-unveils-six-year-tourism-strategy/

    https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/international-tourist-numbers-up-5-5-last-year/
     
  10. moonstone

    moonstone TUG Member

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    We just flew out of the Cancun airport yesterday and there was a large display of the construction of their new Terminal 4. The displays had many charts showing the steadily increasing number of tourists flying into Cancun in the past few (cant remember the number of years on the chart) as well as the number of flights and airlines using the airport.

    We have friends and family who will not go to Mexico (any part) any more due to the increased violence there.


    ~Diane
     
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  11. T-Dot-Traveller

    T-Dot-Traveller TUG Member

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    - and they probably don’t visit Toronto either .
    < even though it is the centre of the universe >
    LOL

    **********

    We moved to Canada in mid 1990 , and rented , while looking to buy . That suburban home was about a kilometre from where a teenager was kidnaped & later killed in June 1991 by an infamous Canadian serial killer .

    People used to ask whether St. Louis Missouri / our previous home - was safe .

    My feeling about “safety” is - ANXIETY IS THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL .

    That said - if someone does not feel comfortable vacationing in a location - then it’s their
    opinion that matters to them . Anything you or I say is unlikely to change that opinion.
    .
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2019
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  12. TravelTime

    TravelTime TUG Member

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    Tourist industry declares crisis for lack of marketing, US tourism decline
    Major decline forecast in tourism GDP growth


    The Mexican tourism industry is in crisis due to a lack of marketing and insecurity, the president of the National Tourism Business Council (CNET) said yesterday.

    Speaking at a tourism forum in Mexico City, Pablo Azcárraga warned that the government’s decision to disband the Tourism Promotion Council (CPTM) and high levels of violent crime will cause tourism GDP growth to slow to 1.6% from 3%.

    Hotels have suffered a 15% decline in profits in the first quarter of 2019, he said, because they have had to lower their rates to maintain occupancy levels...

    Read more here: https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/to...il&utm_term=0_f1536a3787-daa80c8b61-349557009
     
  13. MoPops

    MoPops Guest

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    It was very crowded when we were there in Feb. I was surprised at how crowded it was.
    (RM).
    Thx
     
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  14. hurnik

    hurnik TUG Member

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    Thanks all. I, too, am leaning towards the FT article being a "doom and gloom" without much basis for fact. I'd think that by mid-year the "facts" or numbers would give a good indication. Barring any unforseen global downturn in the economy or "swine flu" outbreak.
     
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  15. DannyTS

    DannyTS TUG Member

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    This could be politically motivated. So April 1st he knew already that the Q1 hotel profits were down ? This kind of aggregate numbers for a whole industry come months later. I assume that at best he relies on anecdotal evidence. Talking about anecdotal evidence, we were in Cancun in March, I asked a cab driver how the business was this season. He told me that it was significantly better than the year before, he thought it was because we had such a cold winter in Eastern US and Canada!
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2019
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  16. T-Dot-Traveller

    T-Dot-Traveller TUG Member

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    a cold long winter will do it .

    April 3 - nighttime lows in Winnipeg are still below freezing / Minneapolis isn’t much warmer .

    I am still using my “lightest “winter coat in Ontario .
    (have 3 - warm - warmer - thickest / don’t own a Canada goose one though)
     
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  17. TravelTime

    TravelTime TUG Member

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  18. Carol C

    Carol C TUG Lifetime Member

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    Mexico for the most part is safe...except for some border towns where immigrants are being walled off. I think Acupulco has a bit of extortion type crime...not good for locals who have to pay the bribes...but for tourists it should be ok. Just don't go out on your own after dark looking for a drink or two, and keep your Rolex and flashy jewelry in the safe in your resort.
     
  19. louisianab

    louisianab TUG Member

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    Was in Cancun last week. Planes were full to and from Chicago. Terminal 4 was busier than it was last year at similar time in my opinion.
     
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  20. easyrider

    easyrider TUG Review Crew: Expert TUG Member

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    Tourism in Mexico is kind of interesting because geographically there are different demographics traveling to certain areas in certain times of year. Some areas of Mexico are mostly visited by vacationing Mexican's during the Mexican Holidays. Other areas have more International visitors. These areas are often fairly close to each other.

    Interesting is that Mexican's are more likely to be victimized in their own country while on vacation. Tourism is likely down regarding Mexican's vacationing in unusual areas of Mexico. I spoke with a guy in Mazatlan who said his family would only go to the local beaches because of safety and costs. That kind of makes sense. He also said that with the new toll road opened to Durango that more people have been coming to Mazatlan from that area.

    From what I noticed is that people from my area that travel to Mexico once usually like it so much they do it again and again.

    Bill
     
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  21. mav

    mav TUG Member

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    I am here in Cancun now, and it definitely appears to be down. Plane landed 3pm Saturday, breezed thru passport control and customs. The very nice workers there had already pulled our luggage out and it was waiting for us. Resort not as busy at all like it used to be. It's really sad, as the people are so nice, beautiful water and beach, great food.
     
  22. DannyTS

    DannyTS TUG Member

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    the customs waiting time in Cancun is supposed to be shorter than before, they added custom officers in February 2019

    https://www.riviera-maya-news.com/a...t-cancun-airport-shorten-wait-times/2019.html

    What resort are you staying at? We were at Westin Lagunamar in March and it was at full capacity.
    As a tourist though (completely selfish here), for better service and prices, i prefer the resorts to be slightly less busy.
     
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  23. PamMo

    PamMo Tug Review Crew: Rookie TUG Member

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    Perhaps tourism in Cancun has gone down, but anectodally, we spent last month in Cabo and it was definitely busier than in past years. The restaurants and bars were busy, the fishing charters streamed past Land's End every morning (I counted more than 200 boats heading out to their fishing grounds before 8am on my first morning there), tour vans/buses were full and running everywhere, whale watching and sunset cruises were numerous and packed with people (many years we've seen just a few boats, with few passengers), and cruise ships (up to three a day in the bay) were flooding the marina with tourists and their dollars. When we left, several American and Delta flights were oversold, and they needed so many seats that the offers were $700 and $800 with overnight stays in all-inclusive resort in San Jose.

    We're in Puerto Vallarta now for Semana Santa, and our resort is packed!
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2019
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  24. T-Dot-Traveller

    T-Dot-Traveller TUG Member

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    Enjoy the atmosphere of Mexican Holiday Season .

    We had the opportunity to be at the Mayan Palace PV - Marina for Semana Santa
    twice - really enjoyed it .

    IMO - during Mexican Holiday Weeks - the suite occupancy levels for families are more of a suggestion .
     
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  25. mav

    mav TUG Member

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    Sorry, just saw this, I am at the Royal Islander, and it's as lovely as ever. Tradewinds is still at the Caribbean, thank heavens. I WAYYY over ate at the Italian buffet at the Royal Sands :( oh, will I ever learn :(.
    Last year and this year most of the guests here the week we are, are from Mexico City, and other parts of Mexico, rather then the U.S.A.
     

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