Interesting article by Scoop @ inside the gate

[easyrider]

http://www.insidethegate.com/2012/04/7-3-million-defaulted-‘weeks’-counting/

An interesting article. I wonder if this is the same Scoop on Tug who wrote this and other articles for "inside the gate".

Bill

 

[Carolinian]

This guy is full of fuzzy math. For one thing, he assumes that each exchange company member only owns one timeshare week. While Tuggers are not typical timeshare owners, there are certainly quite a few multiple week owners out there in timeshare land. For another, he assumes that anyone who is not an exchange company member must be dissatisfied with timesharing. He completely ignores the own-to-use timesharers, which in the local area I am most familiar with do indeed outnumber the own-to-exchange timesharers. Indeed among prime summer weeks, very few owners bother to belong to exchange companies. They bought to come to the beach every summer.

 

[ronparise]

This guy is full of fuzzy math. For one thing, he assumes that each exchange company member only owns one timeshare week. While Tuggers are not typical timeshare owners, there are certainly quite a few multiple week owners out there in timeshare land. For another, he assumes that anyone who is not an exchange company member must be dissatisfied with timesharing. He completely ignores the own-to-use timesharers, which in the local area I am most familiar with do indeed outnumber the own-to-exchange timesharers. Indeed among prime summer weeks, very few owners bother to belong to exchange companies. They bought to come to the beach every summer.

The guy admits hes full of fuzzy math and invites you to uses your own numbers. and I dont see that he assumes anyone not a member of rci is dissatisfied...Thats your spin. He simply takes rcis number of 15% dissatisfied and uses it


'
'
'
'
'
'
'





Ok did you do it...did you use your own numbers??? What are they and did you come to a different conclusion?

The conclusion the Scoop comes to is that there are a lot of timeshare intervals that have been sold, and a lot of owners and some of them will want to sell or will perhaps default


The question Im left with is what can/should they (the hoas and the developers) do about it




Do you see it any differently

 

[In The Know]

Timeshare: The gift that just keeps on giving.

Hello all, and thank you for having me on TUG. This is my first post.

I'm sure I will be pontificating ad nauseum in the coming months as to my experiences in one of the better known timeshare reseller call rooms...

But let's address the article by Scoop first:

In a meeting last year with corporate big-wigs and another TS rental and sales company, according to RCI alone, there are 7 1/2 million unwanted, unused weeks every year by timeshare owners. The party line as it were was that we should be taking advantage of this disparity. Now, that's not to mention Interval at all.

My point is, I think Scoop's numbers may be dramatically underestimated as evidenced by his article. Yes, RCI and II report that 85% are "satisfied" with their ownership, but I just look at the numbers and that's not even remotely true. I've made tens of thousands of calls and had thousands of lengthy conversations with dissatisfied timeshare owners who all had the same story: I wish I'd never bought this darned thing and now I can't use it and I know I can't get rid of it. And that's not just people that own crappy "Mom & Pop" properties. I've spoken to some Marriott Desert Springs owners, etc. that felt duped and helpless. I'd say more like 45-60% of the owners that I've talked to over the years we NOT happy about the "air" that they own. Perhaps more.

As an empathetic and ethical person I was forced to agree. In fact, I no longer work there as a result.

I am sure many of you will have a ton of questions for me and I will do my best to inform you wherever possible. Please don't ask me to name the name of the company...they have a ton of lawyers on payroll.

Forum moderators, feel free to PM me and paraphrase in your own posts if you like. I am simply not in the legal position to say everything that I would like to say, until my lawyer says the pending suit is officially underway.

I look forward to helping you good folks wade through this miserable industry.

In The Know

 

[TUGBrian]

that "85%" satisfaction rate has been used by the industry for YEARS.

afaik it stems from a "survey" they put out many many moons ago that asked ridiculously leading questions that had NOTHING to do with the resale market...but instead focused on the "experience" people had while on vacation at their timeshares.

this of course meant the overwhelming response to the survey was positive, and thus they got exactly the sort of marketing data they were looking for.

 

[Carolinian]

The guy assumes each exchange company members owns one week. We all know that assumption is simply false. I do not know, however, if there is any published average number of weeks owned by exchange company members. Second, he treats all non-members of exchange companies as not using their weeks or dissatisfied. Again we know this is false, as there are very many own-to-use members. On the OBX, own to use members outnumber those who belong to exchange companies. However, I know of no industry wide stats on the number of own to use members. Having your own set of numbers has nothing to do with whether or not you can see the flaws in this guys presentation.

The guy admits hes full of fuzzy math and invites you to uses your own numbers. and I dont see that he assumes anyone not a member of rci is dissatisfied...Thats your spin. He simply takes rcis number of 15% dissatisfied and uses it

Ok did you do it...did you use your own numbers??? What are they and did you come to a different conclusion?

The conclusion the Scoop comes to is that there are a lot of timeshare intervals that have been sold, and a lot of owners and some of them will want to sell or will perhaps default


The question Im left with is what can/should they (the hoas and the developers) do about it




Do you see it any differently

 

[Carolinian]

First, lets establish your background. You say you worked in a ''timeshare reseller call room'' but from the description of your calls you were talking to prospecitve sellers not buyers. Did you work for 1) an entity that charged people an upfront fee to list their timeshare for sale, or 2) an entity that wanted people to pay some amount, often ~$3K, to take their timeshare off of their hands, or 3) some other type of entity. If #3 please explain.

The local timeshare specialist reseller in my home area of NC does not need or use a ''call room'' to rent and sell timeshares nor do they charge the big upfront fees. There are ethical people in the biz who are succesful at it.

Hello all, and thank you for having me on TUG. This is my first post.

I'm sure I will be pontificating ad nauseum in the coming months as to my experiences in one of the better known timeshare reseller call rooms...

But let's address the article by Scoop first:

In a meeting last year with corporate big-wigs and another TS rental and sales company, according to RCI alone, there are 7 1/2 million unwanted, unused weeks every year by timeshare owners. The party line as it were was that we should be taking advantage of this disparity. Now, that's not to mention Interval at all.

My point is, I think Scoop's numbers may be dramatically underestimated as evidenced by his article. Yes, RCI and II report that 85% are "satisfied" with their ownership, but I just look at the numbers and that's not even remotely true. I've made tens of thousands of calls and had thousands of lengthy conversations with dissatisfied timeshare owners who all had the same story: I wish I'd never bought this darned thing and now I can't use it and I know I can't get rid of it. And that's not just people that own crappy "Mom & Pop" properties. I've spoken to some Marriott Desert Springs owners, etc. that felt duped and helpless. I'd say more like 45-60% of the owners that I've talked to over the years we NOT happy about the "air" that they own. Perhaps more.

As an empathetic and ethical person I was forced to agree. In fact, I no longer work there as a result.

I am sure many of you will have a ton of questions for me and I will do my best to inform you wherever possible. Please don't ask me to name the name of the company...they have a ton of lawyers on payroll.

Forum moderators, feel free to PM me and paraphrase in your own posts if you like. I am simply not in the legal position to say everything that I would like to say, until my lawyer says the pending suit is officially underway.

I look forward to helping you good folks wade through this miserable industry.

In The Know

 

[In The Know]

that "85%" satisfaction rate has been used by the industry for YEARS.

afaik it stems from a "survey" they put out many many moons ago that asked ridiculously leading questions that had NOTHING to do with the resale market...but instead focused on the "experience" people had while on vacation at their timeshares.

this of course meant the overwhelming response to the survey was positive, and thus they got exactly the sort of marketing data they were looking for.

I couldn't agree more Brian. They skewed the results for their own gain.

 

[In The Know]

The guy assumes each exchange company members owns one week. We all know that assumption is simply false. I do not know, however, if there is any published average number of weeks owned by exchange company members. Second, he treats all non-members of exchange companies as not using their weeks or dissatisfied. Again we know this is false, as there are very many own-to-use members. On the OBX, own to use members outnumber those who belong to exchange companies. However, I know of no industry wide stats on the number of own to use members. Having your own set of numbers has nothing to do with whether or not you can see the flaws in this guys presentation.

I didn't mean to say that I thought his argument was "flawed". I am simply saying that the numbers IMHO are much, much lower than the 85% reported by the exchange company.

 

[ronparise]

The guy assumes each exchange company members owns one week. We all know that assumption is simply false. I do not know, however, if there is any published average number of weeks owned by exchange company members. Second, he treats all non-members of exchange companies as not using their weeks or dissatisfied. Again we know this is false, as there are very many own-to-use members. On the OBX, own to use members outnumber those who belong to exchange companies. However, I know of no industry wide stats on the number of own to use members. Having your own set of numbers has nothing to do with whether or not you can see the flaws in this guys presentation.

The only flaw in the presentation was that he used numbers at all. His conclusions are pretty simple and dont need numbers to justify them

1) a lot of timeshares have been sold
2) a perrcentage of owners will want to or have to sell
3) and if they cant sell a percentage of the folks that want to sell will instead default

What part of this can you argue with, or do you thing the number of defaults is so low as to not be a problem?

 

[ampaholic]

The only flaw in the presentation was that he used numbers at all. His conclusions are pretty simple and dont need numbers to justify them

1) a lot of timeshares have been sold
2) a perrcentage of owners will want to or have to sell
3) and if they cant sell a percentage of the folks that want to sell will instead default

What part of this can you argue with, or do you thing the number of defaults is so low as to not be a problem?

I agree ... and so we are back to the lack of any sort of efficient marketplace. I am starting to think that the PCC buy back model for mud weeks may be the best we can hope for - in which case the HOA's had better steal a march and get ahead of the defaults with a deedback policy they can live with.

$.002 applies of course

 

[JudyS]

Hello all, and thank you for having me on TUG. This is my first post.

Hi, and welcome to TUG!

I know you don't want to say what company you worked for, but could you tell us what type of company it was? Developer, exchange company, reseller?

...In a meeting last year with corporate big-wigs and another TS rental and sales company, according to RCI alone, there are 7 1/2 million unwanted, unused weeks every year by timeshare owners. The party line as it were was that we should be taking advantage of this disparity. Now, that's not to mention Interval at all.

I don't understand. Are you saying that RCI has 7 /12 million unused deposits? That sounds very high. If that's not what you meant, what does the "7 /12 million unused weeks a year" figure refer to?

I look forward to helping you good folks wade through this miserable industry.

There are a lot of miserable timeshare owners out there right now, but we here on TUG are mostly pretty happy with our timeshares.

 

[Carolinian]

Some areas have a default problem, sometimes major. Some do not or only have a minor one. It varies. Two areas I own in did not have much of a default problem until Points Lite came along, but now those who owned to trade are getting restive. Fortunately, there is a good base of own to use members, so it is probably managible. The other area is really not seeing a default problem. Some areas have probably had a more longstanding default problem.

The only flaw in the presentation was that he used numbers at all. His conclusions are pretty simple and dont need numbers to justify them

1) a lot of timeshares have been sold
2) a perrcentage of owners will want to or have to sell
3) and if they cant sell a percentage of the folks that want to sell will instead default

What part of this can you argue with, or do you thing the number of defaults is so low as to not be a problem?

 

[In The Know]

My reply...

With respect to all on this forum, let me be clear. I did not enter into this fray with the intention of arguing with anyone. I am trying to lend you my experience in a helpful way.

I'm sure that a lot of you have years of happy timeshare use under your belts and I am not trying to paint your experiences in a negative light. Timeshare can be a great thing, as long as you're able to use and enjoy your ownership. The unfortunate thing in my experience is that a lot of folks are simply unable to use or enjoy it, and, without a realistic marketplace like this site, they end up getting stuck with it.

I know plenty of reputable resellers out there and there are some honest and ethical brokers that really do exist. Sadly, the vast majority of "resellers" are just call centers, hell-bent on the up-front fees to "market" a timeshare that will in all eventuality never get sold for the inflated prices that the unsuspecting public is led to believe. This is well documented here and elsewhere online and please forgive the digression in that case.

I worked for a reseller. Or so they said, at least. No, I have cold-called anyone and said that I had a buyer waiting for them, because that would be fraudulent and unethical, and illegal. Those kind of operations make me sick.

I have always stood by my moral compass and never overpriced anyone. In fact, I have refused to take deals where a customer wanted to resell it for what they paid for it 10 years ago, etc.

 

[theo]

"In the Know"?...who says so?

With all due respect, there is a collective few centuries worth of first hand timeshare ownership and experience among thousands of TUG members and users here. Accordingly, what exactly is it that is new or different which you purport to bring to the table (besides just "tales from the reseller call center") that isn't out on the table here already, enabling you to omnipotently answer "...a ton of questions"?

 

[ampaholic]

With respect to all on this forum, let me be clear. I did not enter into this fray with the intention of arguing with anyone. I am trying to lend you my experience in a helpful way.

I'm sure that a lot of you have years of happy timeshare use under your belts and I am not trying to paint your experiences in a negative light. Timeshare can be a great thing, as long as you're able to use and enjoy your ownership. The unfortunate thing in my experience is that a lot of folks are simply unable to use or enjoy it, and, without a realistic marketplace like this site, they end up getting stuck with it.

I know plenty of reputable resellers out there and there are some honest and ethical brokers that really do exist. Sadly, the vast majority of "resellers" are just call centers, hell-bent on the up-front fees to "market" a timeshare that will in all eventuality never get sold for the inflated prices that the unsuspecting public is led to believe. This is well documented here and elsewhere online and please forgive the digression in that case.

I worked for a reseller. Or so they said, at least. No, I have cold-called anyone and said that I had a buyer waiting for them, because that would be fraudulent and unethical, and illegal. Those kind of operations make me sick.

I have always stood by my moral compass and never overpriced anyone. In fact, I have refused to take deals where a customer wanted to resell it for what they paid for it 10 years ago, etc.

Specifics:

OK, I have a mud week at Stoneridge Resort in Blanchard Id. I want to jettison - What can you do for me?

 

[Carolinian]

So you worked in a ''pay a big upfront fee to list your week for sale'' call center?

With respect to all on this forum, let me be clear. I did not enter into this fray with the intention of arguing with anyone. I am trying to lend you my experience in a helpful way.

I'm sure that a lot of you have years of happy timeshare use under your belts and I am not trying to paint your experiences in a negative light. Timeshare can be a great thing, as long as you're able to use and enjoy your ownership. The unfortunate thing in my experience is that a lot of folks are simply unable to use or enjoy it, and, without a realistic marketplace like this site, they end up getting stuck with it.

I know plenty of reputable resellers out there and there are some honest and ethical brokers that really do exist. Sadly, the vast majority of "resellers" are just call centers, hell-bent on the up-front fees to "market" a timeshare that will in all eventuality never get sold for the inflated prices that the unsuspecting public is led to believe. This is well documented here and elsewhere online and please forgive the digression in that case.

I worked for a reseller. Or so they said, at least. No, I have cold-called anyone and said that I had a buyer waiting for them, because that would be fraudulent and unethical, and illegal. Those kind of operations make me sick.

I have always stood by my moral compass and never overpriced anyone. In fact, I have refused to take deals where a customer wanted to resell it for what they paid for it 10 years ago, etc.