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DVC Resale Value

Discussion in 'Disney Vacation Club - DVC' started by RussellSun, Oct 31, 2017.

  1. RussellSun

    RussellSun TUG Member

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    I know in general timeshares go down in value and should only be purchased to use and enjoy. However, I am wondering if DVC timeshares hold their value? I noticed that the DVC resorts like VGC and Poly seem to hold their value better than off site resorts like Aulani in Hawaii, which goes against the rule that Hawaii is always more desirable than Orlando. Can folks with DVC experience shed some light on these trends?
     
  2. bendadin

    bendadin TUG Member

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    Location:
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    Resorts Owned:
    DVC AKV, BLT, POLY
    Wyndham Bonnet Creek, CWA, Panama City Beach, Grand Desert, Bali Hai, Bay Club
    GLV
    DVC has ROFR and that really keeps the resale values up there. And lately there have been some pretty sweet perks for members. I have 4 Wyndham, 2 DVC, and 1 VV, all resale and I just bought my last, a direct purchase from Disney. Even though my resales were old enough to have been grandfathered for membership cards, I wanted one direct so that we can never lose our card carrying status. Plus with each DVC member number, you can get 1 transfer either in or out, and 2 waitlists at a time. All of the resorts have different end use dates (when the resort ownership reverts back to Disney) and maintenance fees.

    The prices of resales have gotten silly. I bought AKV for $85 per point just two years ago. It is over $100 CPP lately. We also way overpaid for a 50 point BLT two years ago, and today's prices are still $35 per point higher. Aulani has higher MF (unless subsidized.) And there is never a shortage of people who are willing to pay upwards of $17 per point to rent (which Disney allows.)
     
  3. RussellSun

    RussellSun TUG Member

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    Can you explain more about the advantage of having a direct contract with DVC and how that affects your resale contracts? You mentioned that will always give you card carrying status. What does that mean and is that an advantage for your resale contracts? What does it mean that with each DVC member number, you get 1 transfer either in or out?

    I think I would use Aulani the most since we like Hawaii and the cost per point on resale market is low right now. If we were to buy direct from Disney, I would purchase Poly since we could stay on the Monorail and it reminds me most of Hawaii. How many points would you recommend on each contract. I was thinking about 100-120 on Aulani and just about 50 or so on Poly. Would that be enough to get the direct benefits?
     
  4. capjak

    capjak TUG Member

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    Some people buy resale first so that they can buy a small 25 point purchase direct from Disney. The 25 points should always have all the benefits/member perks (i.e. discount on annual pass, etc..) as long as you own it. The other vacation options outside of using for DVC stays are not worth it. Better to Rent extra DVC points out and use the cash for non DVC stays.
     
  5. Dean

    Dean TUG Member

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    DVC tends to hold it's value more than most but we're in an up market, it went down by half with the last recession and if/when the economy goes down again, so will DVC. IMO it's irrelevant to a degree though because one should not buy to resell later, it should be sunk money. Any exit strategy should be a just in cash consideration and is not worth paying more for. The more desirable and smaller options will hold their value a little better just like an OF Marriott will tend to do. One should compare to resale prices though, not retail. And the dues are just as important as the up front cost. While the RTU date shouldn't be a big deal, it will have some affect on value, esp for the 2042 resorts.

    SSR will be the best value due to a later RTU, lower dues and relatively lower up front costs. BLT is likely second in terms of value long term but will be more up front. By comparison, VB and HH will be cheaper up front and likely more long term, esp VB. Actually Aulani, if you can get a subsidized contract, should be one of the better values and it's likely worth paying more up front for that option. I think you can expect the on property and HI options to track about the same other than the 2042 resorts will slowly become cheaper in terms of $$$ as the RTU ending date is closer.

    A qualified (retail) contract gives you access to the "perks" like dining discounts, pass discounts and to special events like member cruises or park events. It also gives one the ability to trade for cash type options like cruises, ABD and hotel rooms but only using qualified points; basically always a poor value. Of course one has to have more qualified points for the cash type options because you can't use non qualified points for those options regardless.
     
    VegasBella likes this.
  6. chalee94

    chalee94 TUG Member

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    I never understand the thinking that says that there are people out there willing to pay top dollar for DVC resales but sellers would never be so tacky as to ask for that top dollar without ROFR somehow forcing their hand.

    DVC timeshares hold their value because onsite resorts at WDW are extremely in demand. Disney can charge $150+ per night for glorified Motel 6 rooms and the onsite DVC timeshares are part of that economy as they also include bus service from the airport, transportation to the parks, extra magic hours and so forth.

    If demand for WDW visits wanes, so will DVC resale prices. As long as people are willing to pay extra to stay inside the Disney bubble, resale contracts will be in demand (although this does feel like a bubble to me).
     
  7. RussellSun

    RussellSun TUG Member

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    I do not understand the benefits of buying a small DVC contract directly from Disney. What does being a card carrying Disney member really get you if you only have 25-50 Disney direct points per year? Especially since they cost $176 per point now. Seems that far outweighs a discount on an annual pass, especially if you only use an annual pass once a year. What other benefits would be worth it?
     
  8. chalee94

    chalee94 TUG Member

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    For most, I don't think there's much benefit to buying direct. For some, when you multiply the Annual Pass discount by 4 or 5 in their family, the money starts to add up (which assumes that the AP discount will continue to be there for $100+ off per pass per year). But the dining discounts and free drinks in the Epcot lounge won't really save you much money by themselves, I agree. The special events can be hard to book and access to the DVC member cruise doesn't have a lot of value for me.

    I would only consider direct if I *had* to buy at Poly or Copper Creek, since resales are limited (and, IMO, overpriced right now).
     
  9. Dean

    Dean TUG Member

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    I tend to think most will get some benefit from it. I also suspect that there will be other options in the future that will be similarly restricted. My view is that for most new to DVC that a purchase plan that includes 25 retail points is the best option even if there isn't current benefits doing so. Basically for all looking at 175 total points or greater, less so for those looking much smaller. The added cost done this way will only be around $1500. For most it should be the same resort. The other option it gives is the ability to have more flexibility in terms of the contracts available because it opens up more contracts as reasonable purchases. Plus I believe there's a good chance we'll see the minimum add on increase from 25 to 50 points OR that we'll see DVC resell ROFR points that remain restricted at under 50 points.
     
  10. chalee94

    chalee94 TUG Member

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    BTW, so as not to confuse anyone, it's free *soft drinks* only in the Epcot lounge... :)
     
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  11. RussellSun

    RussellSun TUG Member

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    Who are the best agents for buying DVC on the resale market?
     
  12. Jason245

    Jason245 TUG Review Crew: Veteran TUG Member

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    I am actually interested in this from a different perspective. . The "original" resorts expire in 2042 (25 years from now).. at what point would one expect resale prices to drop and by how much...

    For example.. boardwalk is currently selling for I think around $120 per point. . That equates to a little under $5 a use year...

    Okw is at $80 a point or a little more than $3 a use year..

    I imagine at some point (maybe within 5 years from now) prices on the older resorts are going to have to take some form of more acceleted dive or am I missing something about the rtu model. .



    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk
     
  13. Dean

    Dean TUG Member

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    Things seem to have gone up lately, I suspect they'll come down some after the first of the year but not dramatically. But just because the listings are at $120 doesn't mean they won't go for less they likely will sell for some less. But regardless, I suspect the 2042 resorts will track the others with considerations for the other parameters like location and a slow decline based on the shorter RTU. You likely won't see a fire sale and in reality it's likely they will become comparatively more expensive, or at least a lower value, as you get later in the process because contracts tend to be more stripped now than they used to be giving you less time to make up the up front loss of points and the closing costs will become a larger % of the costs. I don't think you'll see a big drop, just a slow diversion unless you see a big drop in general due to the economy or some other event. If DVC makes sense for someone, I wouldn't wait too long because lost time has value as well. I'd get truly educated then move toward a resale purchase if it makes sense. Of course it often doesn't even for those that buy in. DVC tends to be a more emotional purchase for many, even resale, than most timeshares are which often causes them to make less than stellar choices like financing, buying retail when it doesn't make sense, etc.
     
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  14. chalee94

    chalee94 TUG Member

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    I used the timeshare store:

    http://www.dvc-resales.com/dvclisting.cfm

    I'm sure there are other good options. Fidelity has some good prices but they can also have more issues as that is where Disney sends the owners who decide to sell, but who are pretty clueless about the resale process.
     
  15. chalee94

    chalee94 TUG Member

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    I'm hoping and planning to hold on till 2042 but I'll admit, if I were considering getting out, now seems like a great time (I might be able to sell at a slight profit).

    Not sure there's a historical comparison - your guess is as good as anyone's. But the contracts are definitely going to zero at some point.
     
  16. Jason245

    Jason245 TUG Review Crew: Veteran TUG Member

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    From a simple financial perspective my expectation is a straight line decline offset by inflation. . Since this isn't happening as best I can tell, I am guessing it is the emotional side of things.. all that being said, I can't seem to get the own vs rent equation to work that well from a finance standpoint (cant get a outcome that makes it a better financial decision to own)... especially when the premium on rental is only about 25 percent per point (factoring mf and buy in cost per rtu point).

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk
     
  17. Dean

    Dean TUG Member

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    It depends on how one would use it. For only DVC stays, a SSR contract (really any resale option) should roughly break even or be slightly ahead compared to a reasonably discounted moderate on cash and come out ahead of private rentals for similar options. That includes consideration for yearly dues, the Time Value of Money/Opportunity costs on the up front money and the fact one would draw down the funds over time using them for the accommodations. Obviously every change in a variable would affect the specifics but likely won't affect the principles if one makes good decisions up front and avoids HH/VB, esp VB for WDW stays. But it does represent commitment and risk. One advantage of owning is control another for some is potential access to other options, discount and events. One major advantage of renting is you can access high demand properties inside the home resort window without owning there, since few will own enough home resorts to have this same option as an owner, that can be a major advantage for some.
     
  18. Jason245

    Jason245 TUG Review Crew: Veteran TUG Member

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    The only reason I could see going with a DVC is to stay at a resort in walking distance to a park....I can only assume that the 11 month advantage is needed at those resorts (but someone here can correct me if I am wrong)

    So when I do the simple back of the napkin math it is something like this (assumes you didn't borrow money to buy this in the first place):

    $4-5/point/use year (buy in)
    ~$6/point MF

    Total "amortized" cost = $10-11/point
    Cash Rental Cost = $16/point
    Difference $5-6/point

    Difference from MF - $10/point


    Buy in cost high $5X25 = 125/point
    Buy in cost (low) $4/25 = 100/point

    Assuming no inflation or interest on money
    Number of years to break even assuming no waste and rents increase go in line with MF increases (meaning the $10 difference will hold constant when excluding MF impact) and full use every year (no points get thrown out) - 10(low)-12(high).

    a 10 year + breakeven on initial cash outlay does not make financial sense to me.

    That being said, I could see some financial sense at or under $2/year amortized ($50/point at 25 years to go)

    All of a sudden breakeven drops to 5 years or less.

    am I missing something?
     
  19. chalee94

    chalee94 TUG Member

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    Some of it depends on how certain you are that you want to go to Disney every year.

    Some of it depends on your personal control issues. When you rent, you generally have no option for refunds if you can't go due to injury/sickness/weather/jury duty/job issues, so owning allows you more control in rescheduling or even renting pts for cash if you have life issues that keep you from traveling. And while brokers like David will reimburse you if the owner that booked your stay stops paying MFs and Disney cancels your stay, that can still be a hassle as you would still need to change plans on the fly. Issues are pretty rare but it's nice to have a little more control IMO.
     
  20. Dean

    Dean TUG Member

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    Without going through the numbers too much, if you didn't include inflation, that's a fatal error. By buying you've locked in your costs on a portion of the costs so inflation will have a larger effect on rentals than owning long term in all likelihood. And it does appear to be getting more difficult to find options to rent, esp at the higher demand locations. As for availability, I think getting into Poly, BLT lake view and BWV preferred view won't be overly difficult much of the year but there will be exceptions. Owning at a location with a cheaper option can give some additional savings if one will use it regularly. For example, owning SSR and using for AKV standard will be roughly the same cost as owning AKV and using for value rooms around 2/3 of the time but it does assume you buy the lower number of points at AKV as well. As for return of up front costs, simply dividing the cost by the years really doesn't make sense IMO. I'd use a similar model for return of principle to any high risk investment, usually 10 years. 20 at the longest but less for 2042 options.

    But owning isn't for everyone, as I noted, it does give flexibility and reduce commitment by renting. Likely the worst choice here is to rent for 5-10 years then buy. I do feel that for many that are not versed in timeshares and don't have sufficient on property experience, a rental or 2 is a good investment in making a much better choice.
     
  21. icydog

    icydog TUG Review Crew: Expert TUG Member

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    Ditto to all that--And well said!
     
  22. icydog

    icydog TUG Review Crew: Expert TUG Member

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    One of the things touched on is the value of Disney Vacation Club. I bought originally in 1992 when there was only one Disney Vacation Club resort. I bought about 1200 more points throughout the years and sold them all in 2010 for a big profit. Then between 2011 and 2016 I proceeded in buying back OKW points and BCV points. The Old Key West points all have an expiration date of 2056. I am giving the 400 points I have there to my son in 2019.

    I rent out my BCV points (and the OKW points as well but for less $$) routinely and make enough money to pay the maintenance fees for all my timeshares, DVC and MVCI with a little $$ to spare. Then all the vacations I take to my Marriotts are virtually free. I have been doing this for years and years. I just think it is time to pass those 400 OKW points to my son (with a promise from me to him that I will manage them for him)
     
  23. NewbieMom

    NewbieMom Guest

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    Hoping some of you experts can help. I'm presented with the following opportunity (dilemma?):

    OKW 200 pts @ $75pp upfront $15000, 2042 exp
    Originally, I was only considering AKV and BLT. From what I've read on TUG about buying where you want to stay, I know my kids would love being at AKV and BLT is more me and the hubs. But this OKW contract is tempting me with the lower upfront costs/more pts for the same upfront cost. So if we were to buy the OKW contract and use our points toward a more expensive room at AKV or BLT, assuming the lower point value rooms are gone at the 7 month mark, would it be a wash?

    MF is about the same for OKW and AKV, $1pp or so less for BLT. But BLT is higher pp.
    Current approx pricing: AKV $100pp, BLT $140pp

    For the same upfront costs, I would get 50 points less at AKV, almost half at BLT. How much value to put on the extra 15-18 years contract? Should I just stay on track with my original plan?
     
  24. AnnieBets

    AnnieBets Guest

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    Some contracts come with last years, this years, and next years points available or already used. That will make a difference in value to you.
     
  25. Dean

    Dean TUG Member

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    IMO the years at the end have far less value but they do have some. SSR will be the best long term value, BLT second and AKV third all else the same by the time you factor in dues and inflation long term. I would not go with OKW personally unless one has a specific plan to get 3 BR part of the time, SSR is a much better $$ value. The other issue with OKW that causes me concern is how will the transition from the larger group of owners (2042) to the smaller group (2057) be handled. At the transition DVD will own likely around 60%, 50% at the least. Then they could reduce the size, use it for college housing or for rentals (or any combination). I'd consider the costs both up front and long term but I wouldn't compromise just for cost. It sounds like AKV or BLT are going to be your best choices. Of these, BLT will give you the option of the standard view there but you'll be able to get in at 7 months for much of the time for Lake View. AKV will give you the value & concierge options but anything should get you in to standard/savannah almost all of the time with good planning.
     
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