College Football Playoff Predictions!

[Clemson Fan]

So my wife, who watches most games, but isn't a CFB fanatic like me, asked me last night (after the games had concluded) "So in the BCS system, who would have been playing in the championship game?".

I was thinking almost certainly FSU would have been #1 based on being undefeated, and there would have been a lot of gnashing over whether Oregon or Alabama would be #2. Given the predominant SEC bias that's existed in similar previous scenarios, it's hard to imagine that the title game wouldn't be FSU v Bama. Anyone see it otherwise?

Yup, that's exactly right!

The committee really changed how a poll was done with allowing for so much fluidity. It wasn't until AFTER the committee began to drop FSU that the other polls followed suit and did the same thing. Without that, I'm convinced FSU would've finished #1 in the polls and Alabama would've been #2.

 

[Clemson Fan]

Just an observation:

Over the last 2 years...

Alabama is 0-2 in their bowl games against OSU and OU

Clemson is 2-0 in their bowl games against OU and OSU

 

[am1]

Because of the amount of time off between games and other factors winning or losing a bowl does not justify if team deserved a better spot. With every game there is a winner and loser. Do people really think the SEC West is as bad as they have played in the bowl games? Is ohio state really a better team than Alabama?

How does catching a deflected hail mary pass with no time left on the clock mean one team is better than the other?

It is just that winning and losing is the best we have to go with and is why people watch the games and not a scrimmage. College Football is unpredictable and that is what makes it great.

 

[Clemson Fan]

Give Nick Saban a month to prepare and...what? He now 8-8 in bowl games!

 

[am1]

Give Nick Saban a month to prepare and...what? He now 8-8 in bowl games!

I would take his record over anyone elses.

 

[Elan]

Yup, that's exactly right!

The committee really changed how a poll was done with allowing for so much fluidity. It wasn't until AFTER the committee began to drop FSU that the other polls followed suit and did the same thing. Without that, I'm convinced FSU would've finished #1 in the polls and Alabama would've been #2.

Unlike you, I find the committee approach only marginally more palatable than the grossly biased "pick an SEC team and one other" BCS era system.

But it is a small step forward. If nothing else, it increases the likelihood that a team will have to beat 2 different schemes to win it all. Imagine having to shut down the triple option in the semi-final, and then getting 10 days to prepare for the run-and-shoot or the pistol.

 

[Elan]

Because of the amount of time off between games and other factors winning or losing a bowl does not justify if team deserved a better spot. With every game there is a winner and loser. Do people really think the SEC West is as bad as they have played in the bowl games? Is ohio state really a better team than Alabama?

How does catching a deflected hail mary pass with no time left on the clock mean one team is better than the other?

It is just that winning and losing is the best we have to go with and is why people watch the games and not a scrimmage. College Football is unpredictable and that is what makes it great.

Well which is it?

Your claim all along has been that the SEC is so great based presumably on 7 select bowl game wins, but now, because the SEC west got hammered in bowls, bowl games are insignificant and flukish in nature? Sorry, but you can't have it both ways. I pointed out before that the largest recent data set says that the SEC wins about 53% of the time when playing OOC games against comparable opponents. That data is more representative of the relative strength of the conference than any stand alone bowl data. The SEC is slightly better than average. Nothing more.

And yes, I do think OSU is better than Bama. Go look a the box score. OSU outgained the Tide by 130 yards, which will typically translate into roughly 7-10 points score differential all else equal. Well, turnovers were even, penalties were even and so was TOP. There weren't any overly flukish plays, so why wouldn't everyone conclude OSU was better. Had OSU been able to punch their first few posessions in for TD's instead of FG's, it likely would have been a route. The best team won.

 

[am1]

The SEC has been the best conference the last 10 years, not just because of winning the national championship that they have but by getting invited to the dance as many times as they have. Has any conference been better in any measurable way?

Winning or losing the last game of the year does not determine how good or bad a team is but doing it that many times in a row is a statement of dominance.

This year which conference played in the most big games and the pressure that goes with that?

It is likely the tide is changing or at least evening out.

 

[Elan]

The SEC has been the best conference the last 10 years, not just because of winning the national championship that they have but by getting invited to the dance as many times as they have. Has any conference been better in any measurable way?

Winning or losing the last game of the year does not determine how good or bad a team is but doing it that many times in a row is a statement of dominance.

This year which conference played in the most big games and the pressure that goes with that?

It is likely the tide is changing or at least evening out.

Have you considered a job at ESPiN?

 

[Clemson Fan]

I would take his record over anyone elses.

Saban is a great coach! I would take him over most others.

However, he does meticulously manipulate his schedule to give himself either a bye week or a cupcake team the week before any what he considers highly challenging games. He does whatever he can to give himself whatever advantage he can. There's nothing wrong with that and I commend him for it. That's what a great college coach should do!

It is a myth though that he's unbeatable and can shut anybody down given a month to prepare. In fact, when things are as equal as they can be across the board (neutral site, same amount of time to prepare, relatively evenly matched opponent, etc.), he's just a very pedestrian 8-8.

I think that's why he couldn't really succeed in the NFL. In the NFL you can't influence and tip the competitive balance in your favor like you can in college.

 

[pedro47]

Ohio State or Oregon.I am going to pick the Team that starts with the letter "O."

 

[csxjohn]

If TCU was "picked" over OSU then you would be shedding those same "crocodile" tears!

BTW, for the record I think the committee got it right!

Not a chance, you haven't been paying attention.

I really thought that OSU losing to lowly VAT then losing their QB just before the Big 10 conference game they would not have been considered and I've stated before that I'd be fine with that. That's what the committee is supposed to do, consider all the circumstances.

I think the thrashing of a pretty good Wisconsin team got them in even with the third string QB in there for the up coming semi final game.

No tears at all if TCU or Baylor got in ahead of us, I don't fret over things I can't control. What got me going was all the renewed crying from the TCU fans after their wonderful bowl game win, somehow pointing to that win as proof that they should have been in and not OSU.

After OSU couldn't score a touchdown on two first and goals, had an interception and fumble that resulted in 14 pts for Bama I was getting ready to write that I didn't think we needed the committee or the playoffs, the number one and two were going to be playing anyhow. The coach even tried to give the game away with a pass on the first down of the last series when running out the clock was more important than a long play.

 

[Clemson Fan]

Not a chance, you haven't been paying attention.

I really thought that OSU losing to lowly VAT then losing their QB just before the Big 10 conference game they would not have been considered and I've stated before that I'd be fine with that. That's what the committee is supposed to do, consider all the circumstances.

I think the thrashing of a pretty good Wisconsin team got them in even with the third string QB in there for the up coming semi final game.

No tears at all if TCU or Baylor got in ahead of us, I don't fret over things I can't control. What got me going was all the renewed crying from the TCU fans after their wonderful bowl game win, somehow pointing to that win as proof that they should have been in and not OSU.

After OSU couldn't score a touchdown on two first and goals, had an interception and fumble that resulted in 14 pts for Bama I was getting ready to write that I didn't think we needed the committee or the playoffs, the number one and two were going to be playing anyhow. The coach even tried to give the game away with a pass on the first down of the last series when running out the clock was more important than a long play.

OK, not you then.

However, I can guarantee you that the collective OSU fan base would of been no different then the TCU fan base had TCU been picked over OSU!

 

[Clemson Fan]

Ohio State or Oregon.I am going to pick the Team that starts with the letter "O."

I'll be rooting for da local boy dun good Marcus!

 

[laurac260]

Not a chance, you haven't been paying attention.

I really thought that OSU losing to lowly VAT then losing their QB just before the Big 10 conference game they would not have been considered and I've stated before that I'd be fine with that. That's what the committee is supposed to do, consider all the circumstances.

I think the thrashing of a pretty good Wisconsin team got them in even with the third string QB in there for the up coming semi final game.

No tears at all if TCU or Baylor got in ahead of us, I don't fret over things I can't control. What got me going was all the renewed crying from the TCU fans after their wonderful bowl game win, somehow pointing to that win as proof that they should have been in and not OSU.

After OSU couldn't score a touchdown on two first and goals, had an interception and fumble that resulted in 14 pts for Bama I was getting ready to write that I didn't think we needed the committee or the playoffs, the number one and two were going to be playing anyhow. The coach even tried to give the game away with a pass on the first down of the last series when running out the clock was more important than a long play.

Ha, you missed the very FIRST blunder, the first play of the game, where the Bucks left a live ball to sit in THEIR end zone, just waiting for some random Buckeye to pick it up and do a touchdown dance. My husband pointed that out to me immediately. The sportscasters caught up to it sometime during the 2nd quarter. I just wrote it off, no one seemed to notice (including us). Imagine if Bama HAD scored on that hail mary, or otherwise managed to beat us by a touchdown. We would all been saying the "if only's". Did I think OSU was ready for primetime last night? NOOO. I did not. I was very apprehensive when I found out we were going to the Sugar Bowl, and am feeling equally apprehensive about going to the big game. But no one asked me my opinion before they picked the teams. I held my breath, rooted for my team, kept my trash talking to myself (I didn't have enough confidence to do any), and silently prayed that we COULD beat 'bama, cuz everyone said we COULDN'T. And guess what? We did.

I am nothing but impressed with Cardale. He took awhile to settle in, and his nerves may have gotten the better of him in the 4th, but all in all, all things considered, I thought he stepped up to the plate and delivered more than anyone could expect, given his lack of a seasons preparation. So, as far as I am concerned, the naysayers can shut up now. Let's see what happens on the 12th, and may the best team win.

 

[am1]

OK, not you then.

However, I can guarantee you that the collective OSU fan base would of been no different then the TCU fan base had TCU been picked over OSU!

I would say would have been worse. Even by what other OSU homers have said on this thread.

For me OSU made their statement game and became the true champion of their conference.

The BIG XII decided to hurt one of their long time members in trying to increase the chance of getting one team in.

 

[laurac260]

um…nevermind, it's not worth it.

 

[Talent312]

As a fan of the SEC, I'm prepared to admit that several teams cam up short and the overall bowl results were mediocre at best...

The Western Division did not live up to the hype. Alabama, two Mississippi's, Auburn & LSU all lost. OTOH, the "weaker" Eastern Division held it's own with wins by Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri & Tennessee. For now, I'll concur with those who say that the other conferences have teams that can play as well... a few, anyway.
.

 

[SunSand]

Since the Big Ten Network is affiliated with FOX, and the Pac 12 is an independent, ESPN might be forced to be unbiased. The hype has ended.

 

[pedro47]

I'll be rooting for da local boy dun good Marcus!

Last year the QB from Clemson was from the 757 telephone area code Hampton Roads Virginia. I am waiting for this football season for the Clemson Tigers to play the new VA Tech and the new "The University of Virginia" football teams in 2015.

Did VA Tech defeat Ohio State last year ?

 

[csxjohn]

Ha, you missed the very FIRST blunder, ....

Oh, I did not miss it, I was going crazy over here while it was live. I saw the Bama player heading toward the ball and nonchalantly pick it up at the same time I was screaming at the OSU player to dive for the ball. (The players, coaches, refs, and announcers never listen to me through the TV set.

I didn't put it in that post, I couldn't get it worded right but I was sitting here bemoaning the fact that it could have been 7-0 with no or very little time off the clock.

What I did not know is that in college ball, once the ball lands in the end zone untouched, it is a dead ball. I thought maybe the announcer got it wrong but I've been doing some reading and it looks like in 1972 this rule was changed. In the NFL, I believe, it's still a live ball until downed by someone or goes out of bounds.

As the play was going on my wife just scratched her head and asked "how do you know theses things.? When you've been watching football for over 60 years you pick up a few things out of the ordinary.

 

[csxjohn]

OK, not you then.

However, I can guarantee you that the collective OSU fan base would of been no different then the TCU fan base had TCU been picked over OSU!

Around my area, at least, there was a sigh of relief when the final standings came out. Many of us didn't expect us to be in but that big win against Wisc gave us hope. I did hear commentary that the Big 12's failure to name a champion probably hurt both co-champions during he selection process.

As someone already mentioned it's back to the Big 10 against the Pac 12 like the Rose Bowls of old. I'm lovin' it.

Once again, I don't think the team from Ohio can win but I hope they do.

 

[csxjohn]

Have you considered a job at ESPiN?

Good one!

I wish we had "like" buttons on this forum, I think this post would have gotten a few.

 

[MULTIZ321]

Oregon Football Players Chant "No Means No" After Beating FSU

Oregon Players Should Be Celebrated, Not Punished for Chanting "No Means No!" - by Rebecca Leber/ Sports/ New Republic.com

"Several University of Oregon football players used their brief moment in the spotlight Thursday, after routing Florida State 59-20 in a College Football Playoff semifinal, to simultaneously mock the Seminoles' racist war chant and taunt losing quarterback Jameis Winston over rape allegations against him..."


Richard

 

[Elan]

Here's a good read on the upcoming NFL playoff expansion. The article details the mathematical breakdown and implications of adding more teams to the NFL playoffs, and echoes a lot of what I've posted here regarding CFB playoff expansion. The part regarding an "accidental champion" is particularly interesting as it pertains to college football.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/201...nclude-14-16-teams-various-seeding-strategies

I think it's pretty clear that if 14 teams is a near optimal number in a 32 team league that plays 16 regular season games, that 4 is woefully inadequate for a 124 team "league" that plays 12 regular season games.

From the article:

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Paine, a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight.com, published research earlier this year suggesting that a 16-team format would increase the randomness of champions far more than a move to 14 teams. In a more recent post in conjunction with this story, Paine used Elo ratings as a measure of team quality to examine the impact of playoff expansion.

Similar results emerged: If the NFL wants a playoff "tournament," where the championship odds of all seeded teams are as close as possible, it should expand the postseason to 16 games. If it wants to provide incentive to finish with a conference-best record and guide the top seeds to the Super Bowl, it should stop expansion at 14.

"Based on my research, 14 teams really does appear to be the sweet spot between letting teams settle it on the field and putting the better team in position to succeed," Paine said.
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