The car industry's electric upheaval claims another 10,000 jobs

[MULTIZ321]

The car industry's electric upheaval claims another 10,000 jobs.


https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject....ess/daimler-job-cuts-electric-cars/index.html.


Richard

 

[HitchHiker71]

This is only the beginning. If you want to learn more about the coming energy and transportation revolutions, watch this hour long video. Worth everyone’s time on multiple levels, from what to buy, where to invest, and more:

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[MULTIZ321]

Carmakers Announced 20,000 Layoffs in a Week as Electric Shift Upends Industry. And It's Going to Get Worse.


https://fortune.com/2019/12/04/daim...unced-layoffs-electric-shift-upends-industry/


Richard

 

[MULTIZ321]

Electric vehicles pose a major threat to autoworkers' jobs.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/04/business/electric-car-job-threat/


Richard

 

[dougp26364]

This isn’t the first, nor will it be the last shift in the work force. It’s getting more difficult with each generation to choose a career that will last a lifetime. I wonder what the percentage is of workers entering the workforce today that will face job elimination and retraining in their lifetime? I went thru it myself when insurance sales moved from offices filled with agents to the computer age and buying insurance direct online. Travel agents were affected the same way. It was a VERY tough time to go thru. I was lucky that I was still young enough to make a change and had family support to lean on when my income was down.

 

[PigsDad]

Also in the news: manufacturers of buggy whips have laid off all their employees.

Kurt

 

[klpca]

I found an article that I read a few years ago and found interesting. It was about the rise and fall of the whaling industry and how it was affected by changing technology and the rise of the petroleum industry. There are some fascinating parallels. https://www.theatlantic.com/busines...all-of-us-whaling-an-innovation-story/253355/ The article is from the Atlantic and they have limited viewing (5 articles per month) so depending on your reading habits and subscriptions, it could be behind a paywall.

 

[bogey21]

I can't imagine electric cars taking off until (1) there are more convenient easy to find charging stations; (2) batteries are developed that hold their charges longer; and (3) batteries are developed that can be charged in a whole lot less time...

George

 

[WVBaker]

Sometimes we hate change and love it at the same time, yet it's the only thing that has brought progress. What we really want is for things to remain the same but get better.

 

[klpca]

I can't imagine electric cars taking off until (1) there are more convenient easy to find charging stations; (2) batteries are developed that hold their charges longer; and (3) batteries are developed that can be charged in a whole lot less time...

George

We know a lot of people that drive electric cars. You just charge them in your garage at night, and there are quite a few charging stations in our area - at the bank, and large employers etc. It definitely requires more planning if you are driving long distances but a lot of people use them for daily drivers and have a conventional car for long drives. Mini is coming out with one this spring and I am seriously considering it. We have solar so the energy is essentially free for us, and my daily drive is <30 miles round trip. Seems like a no brainer with the rebates, but I am going to wait to drive it to make a decision. I would happily drive my current Mini for a few more years.

 

[SmithOp]

I dont think electric cars are all the blame here on loss of auto worker jobs. Its robotic automation of the assembly lines also reducing workers. The electric motor/batteries are just the power train, someone/something has to assemble the body and chassis just like gas powered vehicles.


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[Wyominguy]

And today GM announced a new plant in Ohio that will employ 1600 workers. https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...nture-lordstown-batteries-lg-chem/2610738001/ I also read last month that Daimler (parent of Mercedes/Benz) will not be doing further research into internal combustion engines, only electric. Things are shifting toward EV's but I am still not sold until they can drive 500 miles on a charge, charge in 10 minutes, and not lose power in -20 weather.

Neil

 

[WVBaker]

Or a really, really long extension cord.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Time for the fossil fuel industry to go. Clean up the planet. Stop reliance on foreign oil and lobbying interests.

We now have an EV charged with solar on our home. My DH gets free charging at work too. We save about $2400 per year per vehicle not buying gas. We don't need PG&E either because our home is self sufficent - may get a Tesla battery wall if the shut-offs continue. Can't start a forest fire if you don't need power lines anymore.

My DH went to his first gas station in over 3 months with our older gas car. It felt odd. Will never buy another gasoline vehicle. Range will come in a few years. Lots of fast charging stations popping up in our area. Many retailers adding these stations as a draw to get customers to visit their shops.

Besides, EVs are zippy and pick up speed very quickly. Gasoline cars now feel sluggish - even our BMW. Once you drive one you never want to go back. Having access to commuter lanes during rush hour a plus. Shaves 45 minutes off my commute.

 

[WinniWoman]

Harder to use in rural areas, though.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Harder to use in rural areas, though.

Range will not be an issue in 3- 5 years. The auto makers would not be making such dramatic shifts and investments in retooling if they didn't see a tipping point.

BTW...a few years ago I would have written EVs and solar off as hippy dippy "off-grid" stuff. As a business type, I was very skeptical but made the switch based on economics of saving money on our electric and gas bills. Now after realizing the value of a new way of doing this, I am among the converted.

I can complain all day about California government overreach. However the California incentives to move to clean energy have been a model for forward-thinking policy that not only will contribute to clean air, but will reduce our reliance on foreign oil, and need for fire-producing power lines.

It also ensures greater energy security. Without a large power grid, there is little for hackers to attack.

 

[chemteach]

I love my electric vehicle!! I had one previously with 80 miles range - and I often had range anxiety. My Bolt has 240 miles - and I have yet to have any anxiety. I love never going to a gas station! Of course, I wouldn't want to take it on a summer driving trip - but I can rent a car for that if I need to.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

I love my electric vehicle!! I had one previously with 80 miles range - and I often had range anxiety. My Bolt has 240 miles - and I have yet to have any anxiety. I love never going to a gas station! Of course, I wouldn't want to take it on a summer driving trip - but I can rent a car for that if I need to.

Funny you mention rentals. As our cars age, we were considering renting a vehicle to drive on a long distance trip vs. using our own. So if you have your EV for daily commuting where the miles are known, then perhaps renting a gas vehicle for longer range makes sense vs. owning. Auto insurance, auto repairs, and liability have gotten so expensive. We spent thousands in the past 3 years keeping our gas vehicles running. The EVs don't require much. Although the batteries turn into a brick in about 8 years...so need to replace more often.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Funny you mention rentals. As our cars age, we were considering renting a vehicle to drive on a long distance trip vs. using our own. So if you have your EV for daily commuting where the miles are known, then perhaps renting a gas vehicle for longer range makes sense vs. owning. Auto insurance, auto repairs, and liability have gotten so expensive. We spent thousands in the past 3 years keeping our gas vehicles running. The EVs don't require much. Although the batteries turn into a brick in about 8 years...so need to replace more often.

The current battery packs will last about 500k miles from Tesla. It is expected that the battery packs used in the Cybertruck and potentially even as soon as the Model Y will be 1MM mile packs. The statistical average lifespan of ICE powered vehicles is about 150k miles on average.

The auto industry will look completely different in ten years time. Just watch the SEBA YouTube video I linked to above. His data driven analysis is spot on and is based on disruption in the energy sector. 20 years out almost all of us will have solar powering 100% of our homes and vehicles. Solar is already at 3 cents per KWH and falling. No other fossil based fuel can compete at double that price even. It’s simply a matter of time until the entire vehicle fleet converts over to electric. And we won’t buy new cars like we do today. If the average person drives 20k miles per year, which is statistically much higher than what most people drive, on a 1MM mile battery pack one electric vehicle can in theory last you 50 years. That’s a lifetime. Think about what this will mean for the automotive industry in the future. We probably saw peak vehicle sales in 2016, it’s downhill from here given the longevity of electric vehicles which have less than 10% of the moving parts compared to ICE vehicles.

While I’m not in love with the looks of the Cybertruck, I suspect it will change by the time it gets to production, and I’ve already put a deposit down. Just look at the pent up demand that Tesla has shown for electric vehicles. ICE vehicles are dead men walking, sorry to say.


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[CalGalTraveler]

@HitchHiker71 Thanks for sharing the video. Although I am only halfway through, it is very good!

 

[Brett]

Article in the WSJ today - Electric Cars Are Here. Buyers Aren't

"To date, the customer’s appetite for big trucks and SUVs running on cheap
gasoline has ruled the market. The roar of an engine and the convenience of a
gas station have won out over regulators and environmentalists telling us the world will melt if we don’t go electric."


"as of 2019, electric vehicles cost more than their gasoline counterparts,
are cumbersome to charge and sell fewer in the U.S. than the Toyota Camry."

"Hype for electric cars persists even as car makers lose money on them.
For instance, amid $4-a-gallon gasoline earlier in the decade, General Motors
predicted it would have 500,000 electric cars on the road by 2017. It missed badly."

 

[bogey21]

Stop reliance on foreign oil.

Foreign oil? I thought the US was an exporter of oil...

Also, what happens to all the gasoline powered cars traded in as people buy electric cars. My guess is that their value goes down and they are bought (and driven) by low income people...

George

 

[WVBaker]

Also, what happens to all the gasoline powered cars traded in as people buy electric cars. My guess is that their value goes down and they are bought (and driven) by low income people...

George

Or perhaps one day they transition into classics that only high income people can afford.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Foreign oil? I thought the US was an exporter of oil...

Also, what happens to all the gasoline powered cars traded in as people buy electric cars. My guess is that their value goes down and they are bought (and driven) by low income people...

George

Currently net imports are at 11%. Was higher. A decline in dependence has come at a cost. Ask people in Oklahoma about their quality of life with earthquakes caused by fracking.

ICE cars will be around during transition and I don't believe they the will entirely go away. There are rural cases and long distance cases where ICE is superior. Horses as transportation didn't go away overnight either. But with gasoline currently at $4+ per gallon, that's not sustainable for low income to buy ICE cars if the economics hold steady.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Or perhaps one day they transition into classics that only high income people can afford.

LOL, that's what happened to horses...they became expensive barn queens, just like classic cars became garage queens.