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Should we be worried that the Lagunamar availability will dry up upon the MVC integration?

DannyTS

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from the Marriott Vacations Worldwide Investor Day Presentation-October 4
https://livestream.com/ICENYSE2/marriottwebcast

(2:08:36 webcast):

“Beach and Caribbean resorts run at almost capacity, so we are constantly trying to add flags in these types of markets. Our recent transaction of ILG includes assets in Mexico in locations like Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta and Cancun. Mexico has consistently been one of the top destinations where our owners exchange outside of our system. Therefore, our near-term development strategy leverage these assets in the acquisition to help satisfy our owner demand cost effectively”
 
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vacationtime1

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I wouldn't not be concerned in the least.

First, what MVC integration? And if so, how many years away is it?

Next, Lagunamar is an easy exchange (Interval or StarOption); that suggests overcapacity, not a shortage.

Finally, didn't Westin just open a second project in Cancun?
 

mjm1

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No, I don't see that happening. We won't know how MVC owners will access Vistana inventory, or vice-versa, until they release the program, but as has been discussed in other threads about a layover program or whatever they come up with, they won't circumvent the VSN internal exchange rules to satisfy demand from MVC owners. The same goes for providing Vistana owners access to high demand MVC resorts. To do otherwise would alienate a large portion of the overall owners, which would not be good for business. Time will tell.

Best regards.

Mike
 

DannyTS

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I wouldn't not be concerned in the least.

First, what MVC integration? And if so, how many years away is it?

Next, Lagunamar is an easy exchange (Interval or StarOption); that suggests overcapacity, not a shortage.

Finally, didn't Westin just open a second project in Cancun?

Have you checked the post in the Marriott section? They are ready to announce a point conversion system between MVC, Westin VC and Sheraton VC as early as mid to late 2020. I am not sure if you can sustain with numbers the overcapacity statement, Laguanamar has an average occupancy of 92-93% which suggests it runs at full capacity most of the peak months. Finally, Westin Cancun is no match for Westin Lagunamar in terms of location, pools, views (half of Westin Cancun is on the lagoon side). I have not heard anyone who, given the choice, would spend his points there. Not that it is not a nice resort I imagine.

So if you think Lagunamar, at 93% average occupancy displays signs of overcapacity, well... I want to keep it this way. But my fear is that this is going to change.


upload_2019-10-4_18-5-0.png
 
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vacationtime1

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Have you been reading the post in the Marriott section? They are ready to announce a point conversion system between MVC, Westin VC and Sheraton VC as early as mid to late 2020. I am not sure if you can sustain with numbers the overcapacity statement, Laguanamar has an average occupancy of 92-93% which suggests it runs at full capacity most of the peak months. Finally, Westin Cancun is no match for Westin Lagunamar in terms of location, pools, views (half of Westin Cancun is on the lagoon side). I have not heard anyone who, given the choice, would spend his points there. Not that it is not a nice resort I imagine.

So if you think Lagunamar, at 93% average occupancy displays signs of overcapacity, well... I want to keep it this way. But my fear is that this is going to change.


View attachment 14461

I have read JIMinNC's posts.

I have no concerns about Lagunamar occupancy. Compare current availability at Lagunamar (easy to get, whether by StarOptions, Interval, or Getaways -- and there is only one resort there right now) to Maui (where prime season availability is a challenge and there are six properties). You are very focused on Lagunamar but the bigger crowds are attracted to Maui (and other locations).

If they start some kind of integrated program in 2020 (read: 2021 or 2022), unless enrollment is free, it will be about 2025 by the time there is a critical mass.

Reading between the lines, they know where they want to go (common currency) but haven't figured out how to get there.
 

DannyTS

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I have read JiminNC's posts.

I have no concerns about Lagunamar occupancy. Compare current availability at Lagunamar (easy to get, whether by StarOptions, Interval, or Getaways -- and there is only one resort there right now) to Maui (where prime season availability is a challenge and there are six properties). You are very focused on Lagunamar but the bigger crowds are attracted to Maui (and other locations).

If they start some kind of integrated program in 2020 (read: 2021 or 2022), unless enrollment is free, it will be about 2025 by the time there is a critical mass.

Reading between the lines, they know where they want to go (common currency) but haven't figured out how to get there.

I see your point but I am talking about the future not the past. Besides, most of the Interval inventory you are talking about is shoulder season. Out of curiosity, what is the average occupancy rate at WKV or the other non-Hawaii Vistana resorts? I am not going to compare Mexico with Hawaii because no location compares with Hawaii.
 
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dioxide45

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You can't get much higher than 92% capacity. That means that they are probably renting a lot of inventory on Marriott.com or dumping stuff in II. You may see II weeks dry up and not as many getaways before you see StarOption inventory dwindle. I suspect they will heavily promote this property and offer promo packages to current MVCI owners. So you may see a lot of hotel (Marriott.com) inventory go that route. They will ultimately sell Aventuras to those guests. That in turn may make it harder to book at Lagunamar because they can sell the Cancun down the street while promising Lagunamar.
 

CalGalTraveler

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I was considering buying more SO points to gain access to Lagunamar and a few other Vistana resorts. Just found studios and 1 bdrms on Expedia for about the cost of maint. fee in mid-December. Since rentals provide an increasing portion of MVC revenue, I am expecting this trend to continue and to see more rental availability.

If we consistently needed a 2 bdrm in Cancun (we don't), it would make more sense to purchase.
 

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I think they can only do an overlay program with inventory they are able to secure. This would mean unsold weeks at Lagunamar they own, or weeks that they could obtain by enticing owners to enter into some sort of exchange into a new club. It is going to get more and more difficult to manage all these pools. Think, sold inventory, Aventuras, unsold inventory for rent through Marriott, and this new hybrid overlay.

markus
 

DannyTS

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I was considering buying more SO points to gain access to Lagunamar and a few other Vistana resorts. Just found studios and 1 bdrms on Expedia for about the cost of maint. fee in mid-December. Since rentals provide an increasing portion of MVC revenue, I am expecting this trend to continue and to see more rental availability.

If we consistently needed a 2 bdrm in Cancun (we don't), it would make more sense to purchase.
What dates and prices are you referring to? You also have to go to the end to include taxes. Mid December is still low season by the way. I looked on Expedia briefly and they are 2-3 times the maintenance fees.
49 and 50, January and May are great times to go to Lagunamar using Staroptions.
Concerning MVC renting more units, they can only rent what they own so I am not sure that there will be any more inventory coming from them.
 
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