Large DVC Annual Dues Increase for 2019

[TravelTime]

I think that you have a very solid point. On the other hand, i have seen at least 10-15 DVC listings on Ebay in the last 2-3 weeks. And I expect the prices on ebay to be cheaper for any timeshare because buyers have to factor in the additional risk. Many Ebay sellers seem to be brokers that do a decent job (although lacking in communication) but the reality is that there is little info on who they are. Maybe Tuggers know a bit more in general but what about the random buyer? Who would send thousands of dollars to a seller they know nothing about?

You should start a post about purchasing on eBay. I am suspicious of any eBay listings that are for a timeshare that sellers could easily sell at a much higher price. Some of the eBay listings for DVC are asking the normal resale price. Others appear to be from distressed buyers yet I am noticing those prices are getting bid up to almost the normal resale price range. Like Panina, I would not buy a timeshare on eBay that costs more than a few dollars due to the risks involved. However, many people buy timeshares on eBay all the time. If it is a really good deal, you could turn around and resell it for thousands more the next day (after closing that is).

 

[TravelTime]

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Timeshare-and-250-Annual-Points-at-Disney-s-Animal-Kingdom-Villas/183550871918?_trkparms=aid=111001&algo=REC.SEED&ao=1&asc=20160908131621&meid=1452c360feab47a299cc7033640a34c4&pid=100678&rk=4&rkt=4&sd=143046976365&itm=183550871918&_trksid=p2481888.c100678.m3607&_trkparms=pageci:5c7adf4a-fd99-11e8-8c7d-74dbd180f750|parentrq:9f85594a1670a9c454b6237fffef1217|iid:1

This listing has gone from $1000 to $19,700 in one day and it still has 29 days more to go. When you add in the unusable banked and borrowed points plus additional late fees that were charged on 12/1 and will continue to be charged until closing, this is not such a good deal for eBay. This is now approaching well into the $24,000+ range with closing costs and delinquent payments and 2019 MFs. I am also noticing there are two buyers that appear to be on automatic bidding. There are contracts for sale by the reputable brokers asking as low as $97 per point for AK. This one is now approaching that price per point. So now my question is, what kind of buyer would buy something so expensive on eBay? Who are those two bidders competing against each other with auto bidding?

 

[TravelTime]

I'm still not seeing the % for the other resorts including those with buy backs listed but it really doesn't matter because it really doesn't answer the question at hand, which is based on price.

I see what you mean that he summarized the 4 top resorts with buybacks in a mini table with percentages but left off the others. He included the total volume for all the resorts with buybacks but no percentages for the resorts with the smallest number of buybacks. I guess if someone wants this data, you could email him and ask him to include it. This is the only data I have ever seen published by someone with DVC data available. I would take it as directional and not as a solid answer. He does a cumulative annual report at some point so that might be more helpful since looking at one month has so few buybacks that the percentages for the low volume resorts may be meaningless in any given month. I am assuming that is why he did not include all the resorts in his mini table.

Here is a link to his blog that includes his monthly reports on ROFR and average sales prices. I did not realize how cheap points are at HHI and Old Key West.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/category/buying-dvc/

 

[DannyTS]

one thing is for sure, the magic will stop and the resale prices will come back to reality if DVC stops this aggresive ROFR policy. Most companies exercise RoFR with the idea of maximizing profit per each week bought back. MVC could not care less about the resale prices. DVC seems to promote the idea that their timeshares go up in value but that may change one day. i will continue to monitor ebay. The fact that i have seen several cheap sales and that there has been a dvc ebay market for at least 10 years tell me that there is more to the story

 

[TravelTime]

one thing is for sure, the magic will stop and the resale prices will come back to reality if DVC stops this aggresive ROFR policy. Most companies exercise RoFR with the idea of maximizing profit per each week bought back. MVC could not care less about the resale prices. DVC seems to promote the idea that their timeshares go up in value but that may change one day. i will continue to monitor ebay. The fact that i have seen several cheap sales and that there has been a dvc ebay market for at least 10 years tell me that there is more to the story

DVC does not have an aggressive ROFR policy. They rarely exercise ROFR as shown by the data posted by DVCResaleMarket.com. When you buy through DVC direct, they do not talk about resale value at all. This is absolutely not part of their sales pitch. In fact, DVC is very non-aggressive in my experience. I have bought DVC direct and resale. Personally, I did not mind paying more to buy direct if the purchase was for small contracts or if the delta was not significant in my mind. There were some nice benefits that I valued when I bought from DVC direct. DVC promotes buying direct so they do not ever talk about resale. I mentioned resale to my salesman and he stayed quiet.

The Magic will not stop unless you hate Mickey and friends. You seem to hate the Mouse. I hated the Mouse when I purchased DVC but now I love him. Those characters just get under you skin and make you feel young again. I am even planning to go on an adult group trip to DVC in 2020. There are so many Disney fanatics. It is almost cult like.

Disney as a brand has been around for almost 100 years in all different types of products. The timeshare component is almost 30 years old.

All timeshares are a resale disaster for owners. That is why TUG exists.

To me, the DVC buy in cost is high but the MFs are low.

When there is another recession, I assume all timeshare resale prices will go down as owners dump them.

There is a lot for sale now on DVCResaleMarket.com. I have never seen so many for sale as this year.

But think about it, only a small percentage of the timeshare universe buys resale and the majority of DVC owners buy direct.

I hate the process of buying resale. I have been waiting for about 2 months now for a simple Vistana purchase to close. I found out today there is a deed problem. Resale is a pain in the you know where. It is great for saving money but unless the delta is big, it is not worth it.

I do not think you can predict failure based on a few months in time. I do not know why you want to do this, anyway. If anything, I see more trouble coming for Mexico. I would worry more about that.

 

[TravelTime]

I am done with posting in this thread. It is time for me to tune out.

Hoping the Mouse will bring some Magic to the people who enjoy it.

 

[Dean]

I see what you mean that he summarized the 4 top resorts with buybacks in a mini table with percentages but left off the others. He included the total volume for all the resorts with buybacks but no percentages for the resorts with the smallest number of buybacks. I guess if someone wants this data, you could email him and ask him to include it. This is the only data I have ever seen published by someone with DVC data available. I would take it as directional and not as a solid answer. He does a cumulative annual report at some point so that might be more helpful since looking at one month has so few buybacks that the percentages for the low volume resorts may be meaningless in any given month. I am assuming that is why he did not include all the resorts in his mini table.

Here is a link to his blog that includes his monthly reports on ROFR and average sales prices. I did not realize how cheap points are at HHI and Old Key West.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/category/buying-dvc/

Options like DIS ROFR thread's and ROFR.net will give you better data from a price standpoint. I would never recommend anyone buy based on the odds of passing ROFR, that's a disaster looking to happen and a recipe for a retail purchase in many cases.

 

[DannyTS]

DVC does not have an aggressive ROFR policy. They rarely exercise ROFR as shown by the data posted by DVCResaleMarket.com. When you buy through DVC direct, they do not talk about resale value at all. This is absolutely not part of their sales pitch. In fact, DVC is very non-aggressive in my experience. I have bought DVC direct and resale. Personally, I did not mind paying more to buy direct if the purchase was for small contracts or if the delta was not significant in my mind. There were some nice benefits that I valued when I bought from DVC direct. DVC promotes buying direct so they do not ever talk about resale. I mentioned resale to my salesman and he stayed quiet.

The Magic will not stop unless you hate Mickey and friends. You seem to hate the Mouse. I hated the Mouse when I purchased DVC but now I love him. Those characters just get under you skin and make you feel young again. I am even planning to go on an adult group trip to DVC in 2020. There are so many Disney fanatics. It is almost cult like.

Disney as a brand has been around for almost 100 years in all different types of products. The timeshare component is almost 30 years old.

All timeshares are a resale disaster for owners. That is why TUG exists.

To me, the DVC buy in cost is high but the MFs are low.

When there is another recession, I assume all timeshare resale prices will go down as owners dump them.

There is a lot for sale now on DVCResaleMarket.com. I have never seen so many for sale as this year.

But think about it, only a small percentage of the timeshare universe buys resale and the majority of DVC owners buy direct.

I hate the process of buying resale. I have been waiting for about 2 months now for a simple Vistana purchase to close. I found out today there is a deed problem. Resale is a pain in the you know where. It is great for saving money but unless the delta is big, it is not worth it.

I do not think you can predict failure based on a few months in time. I do not know why you want to do this, anyway. If anything, I see more trouble coming for Mexico. I would worry more about that.

Let's not forget where all this started, an important increase in MF. And a question whether this is going to impact the resale prices. You are confirming that there are more listings than you have seen before. Several contracts have been sold for much less than expected on Ebay. On DVCResaleMarket.com there are 109 listings that reduced the price and 39 that show the banner "reduced again". There is your answer why Ebay listings. It is not a matter of love or hate Mickey as you put it, the choice is not binary. By the way, most sales are through developer at any other major brand and, according to anecdotal evidence discussed on Tug, at least 90% of the owners bought direct. That does not mean that the resale prices are not where they are. I think that 95% of the resale prices are at zero or negative value. Platinum in quality resorts has value but there are limits and the price is highly influenced by ROFR. This is all I am saying.

 

[Dean]

Let's not forget where all this started, an important increase in MF. And a question whether this is going to impact the resale prices. You are confirming that there are more listings than you have seen before. Several contracts have been sold for much less than expected. It is not a matter of love or hate Mickey as you put it, the choice is not binary. By the way, most sales are through developer at any other major brands and, according to anecdotal evidence discussed on Tug, at least 90% of the owners bought direct. That does not mean that the resale prices are not where they are. I think that 95% of the resale prices are at zero or negative value. Platinum in quality resorts have some value but there are limits and the price is highly influenced by ROFR. This is all I am saying.

Historically DVC prices have been propped up by ROFR about 50% of the time or less and the rest driven by the market. Currently it's likely more the market and not ROFR prices. Timeshare represent risk in terms of the dues and they will go up even in a recession. ROFR doesn't offer any protection, if anything, it is a problem for the seller. But what it does is prevent the fire sales and keep people guessing. DVC has already proven that the limitation on dues increases and reallocation limits aren't a true protection for the buyer as there's always next year.

 

[DannyTS]

Historically DVC prices have been propped up by ROFR about 50% of the time or less and the rest driven by the market. Currently it's likely more the market and not ROFR prices.

I am not disputing what you say because there is just not enough information.
In general though, a big buyer can influence the prices on a continuous manner even if it represents a small percentage of the total transactions and even if the buys are not done all the time. I would give 2 examples relatively easy to understand from the recent history: corporate stock buybacks and the QE programs by the Federal reserves.

 

[bnoble]

I am not disputing what you say because there is just not enough information.

Yes there is: go back and look at the collection of ROFR threads on DISboards. There was a significant period during the economic downturn when almost nothing was taken via ROFR.

 

[frank808]

Yes there is: go back and look at the collection of ROFR threads on DISboards. There was a significant period during the economic downturn when almost nothing was taken via ROFR.

2008-2009 for buyers, I called it "The Golden Age".

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[Dean]

I am not disputing what you say because there is just not enough information.
In general though, a big buyer can influence the prices on a continuous manner even if it represents a small percentage of the total transactions and even if the buys are not done all the time. I would give 2 examples relatively easy to understand from the recent history: corporate stock buybacks and the QE programs by the Federal reserves.

I've been following resales to some degree or the other for over 20 years. The reality is that no one has the true data because DVD doesn't share it. What I posted was my Gestalt for where things have been over time. Clearly there have been times when ROFR propped up prices and times when they didn't. Now is one where they don't in general terms but they do control fire sales. No single buyer is going to be able to influence prices, not enough volume. But a broker can and frankly, I personally feel one has to the point of refusing listings that were below what they felt was the "norm".

Yes there is: go back and look at the collection of ROFR threads on DISboards. There was a significant period during the economic downturn when almost nothing was taken via ROFR.

Prices went to half of what they were a year or 2 before. HH went for under $30 at times and SSR down to $40 or so.

 

[Pathways]

DVC does not have an aggressive ROFR policy

I respectfully disagree with this. DVC's pockets are so deep, except during times of extreme downturn, I would venture to say DVC never purposefully lets a sale go through with a price point dramatically lower than the general market. When they do, I would bet it's because of the size of the contract, or terms of the deal.

But a broker can and frankly, I personally feel one has to the point of refusing listings that were below what they felt was the "norm".

I could not agree more with this statement. I have experience with five of the main sellers, and while I would not share specifics publicly, there are certain ones I would not buy from, and certain ones I would not sell through, all based on their pricing.

A broker's job is to maximize the price for the seller. If the broker does enough volume, they can (and I believe do) refuse to list for lower prices. One listing like that can lower the value for every other listing they have. On the other hand, if the volume is lower, the broker may price all the contracts lower, thereby selling quickly. They hope the quick sale data will get someone to list with them with the promise of a quick turnaround.

Yes, I realize the above (high/low volume) is the exact opposite of free market norms, but I believe it is true based on my own experience. Ex: I wanted to make offers on more than one contract with a certain broker. ($6-10 below asking) They refused, saying they knew it would sell at the listed price if not above. Yet three weeks later, the listings were still there.

 

[Lisa P]

To me, the DVC buy in cost is high but the MFs are low.

For us, they are both too high for value received vs. (both onsite and offsite) alternatives. The high MFs were the reason we sold ours. We don't hate Disney at all, we just see the value of DVC differently.

 

[bnoble]

2008-2009 for buyers, I called it "The Golden Age".

From Maelström: "You are not the first to pass this way, nor shall you be the last."

 

[frank808]

Yes there is: go back and look at the collection of ROFR threads on DISboards. There was a significant period during the economic downturn when almost nothing was taken via ROFR.

Even in the depths of the recession (2009), dvc exercised rofr. DVC did not exercise rofr with okw at $32 and ssr at $40. I was able to purchase a few contracts at these properties for those prices. DVC did not let a VGC pass at $50 a point that I tried to purchase. This was when everyone was reporting that DVC was not using rofr. They were exercising but on a much more selective scale from my experiences.

Sent from my SM-T217S using Tapatalk

 

[DannyTS]

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Timeshare-and-250-Annual-Points-at-Disney-s-Animal-Kingdom-Villas/183550871918?_trkparms=aid=111001&algo=REC.SEED&ao=1&asc=20160908131621&meid=1452c360feab47a299cc7033640a34c4&pid=100678&rk=4&rkt=4&sd=143046976365&itm=183550871918&_trksid=p2481888.c100678.m3607&_trkparms=pageci:5c7adf4a-fd99-11e8-8c7d-74dbd180f750|parentrq:9f85594a1670a9c454b6237fffef1217|iid:1

This listing has gone from $1000 to $19,700 in one day and it still has 29 days more to go. When you add in the unusable banked and borrowed points plus additional late fees that were charged on 12/1 and will continue to be charged until closing, this is not such a good deal for eBay. This is now approaching well into the $24,000+ range with closing costs and delinquent payments and 2019 MFs. I am also noticing there are two buyers that appear to be on automatic bidding. There are contracts for sale by the reputable brokers asking as low as $97 per point for AK. This one is now approaching that price per point. So now my question is, what kind of buyer would buy something so expensive on eBay? Who are those two bidders competing against each other with auto bidding?

as i wrote before, the prices can be all over the place, somebody won today an auction for 180 points for $3400

 

[TravelTime]

as i wrote before, the prices can be all over the place, somebody won today an auction for 180 points for $3400

View attachment 9445

Yes, we already discussed this and some possible explanations. Why are you obsessed with this?

 

[Panina]

as i wrote before, the prices can be all over the place, somebody won today an auction for 180 points for $3400

View attachment 9445

What it goes for and what passes rofr are two different things. Show me one that gets past rofr and then we can assume things are changing.

 

[TravelTime]

It would be super helpful to research these closed DVC listings and find out if they are legitimate. Then let us know in advance when you find some great DVC deals so we can bid on it. Posting closed auction is not helpful and it could be misleading people into thinking we can get deals like this. I tried bidding on a DVC listing on eBay and I got outbid almost immediately and all of a sudden the price jumped and came close to the normal resale price. The 2 buyers who outbid me were both on auto bidding. The listings are still available waiting for more bids but now it is too expensive to purchase on eBay so I stopped bidding. I thought the entire thing was very odd. If you find another incredible eBay deal, let us know in advance so we can bid.

 

[DannyTS]

Then let us know in advance when you find some great DVC deals so we can bid on it.

Nobody can tell in advance the great DVC deals for the same reason you stated: most people bid in the last minute or so what may seem to be a great deal in advance can prove to be a terrible deal five minutes later. Many people are on auto bidding, it saves time.

The other points you and Panina make are very true. We do not know whether the seller is not a scammer, and if he is not, if they are going to pass ROFR.

Concerning the seller, tra3213, I do not find anything on TUG about him, a red flag. Google does not reveal much more, except this

http://timeshare-traveler.blog/tag/tra3213/

I have a suspicion now that he might be a scammer and that this page is also related to him somehow. I hope i am wrong for those that may have won his auctions.

 

[TravelTime]

Nobody can tell in advance the great DVC deals for the same reason you stated: most people bid in the last minute or so what may seem to be a great deal in advance can prove to be a terrible deal five minutes later. Many people are on auto bidding, it saves time.

The other points you and Panina make are very true. We do not know whether the seller is not a scammer, and if he is not, if they are going to pass ROFR.

Concerning the seller, tra3213, I do not find anything on TUG about him, a red flag. Google does not reveal much more, except this

http://timeshare-traveler.blog/tag/tra3213/

I have a suspicion now that he might be a scammer and that this page is also related to him somehow. I hope i am wrong for those that may have won his auctions.

If you can post the starting bids for low cost DVC deals, that would be helpful. Then we can bid and see what happens.

 

[DannyTS]

If you can post the starting bids for low cost DVC deals, that would be helpful. Then we can bid and see what happens.

i believe it is against the Tug rules to post live listings. You can create your own watch lists in ebay though

 

[Dean]

Nobody can tell in advance the great DVC deals for the same reason you stated: most people bid in the last minute or so what may seem to be a great deal in advance can prove to be a terrible deal five minutes later. Many people are on auto bidding, it saves time.

The other points you and Panina make are very true. We do not know whether the seller is not a scammer, and if he is not, if they are going to pass ROFR.

Concerning the seller, tra3213, I do not find anything on TUG about him, a red flag. Google does not reveal much more, except this

http://timeshare-traveler.blog/tag/tra3213/

I have a suspicion now that he might be a scammer and that this page is also related to him somehow. I hope i am wrong for those that may have won his auctions.

I'd suggest you investigate the general level DVC ROFR is occurring at, you should be able to get within a fe $$$. Then bid on a auction below that with a seller you're comfortable with. Ebay has quite a few protections but there is still risk. Worst case scenario is you lose the deal to ROFR and have to wait a month or 2 to get our money back. I've bought a number of timeshares on ebay over the years but not DVC. Historically the prices for DVC on ebay haven't been a savings. You might get a good price that will slip by, more likely you'll lose it ROFR unless it's a bankruptcy or foreclosure. Even if you get that great price, it might take 4-5 months to close in some cases. I get the sense you're trying to nail jello to the wall. To make sure you don't over bid or lose out, snipe it, it'll only cost you if you win.