College Football Playoff Predictions!

[Elan]

I just want to see good teams playing good compelling games.

Me too. I'd trade the stupid conference championship games or an early season body bag game for another round of playoffs in a heartbeat.

 

[TUGBrian]

It's official.

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. OSU
5. Baylor
6. TCU

Sorry Big 12. Maybe if you didn't refuse to name a conference champion you could've gotten Baylor in. Baylor got screwed by their own conference IMO.

think it had more to do with their out of conference schedule than anything.

although I find it amusing that noone mentions one word about alabamas out of conference cupcake schedule.

 

[Elan]

I have no idea whether the committee got it right or not, but what's their justification for dropping a team that wins 55-3 from 3 to 6? What a joke of a process............

 

[TUGBrian]

the discussion was that the other teams all won a championship game, and played a much better (ie non cupcake) team saturday...thus they dropped.

 

[Elan]

the discussion was that the other teams all won a championship game, and played a much better (ie non cupcake) team saturday...thus they dropped.

So then clearly one should be prescient enough to schedule the better teams in your conference for the end of the season. :hysterical:

 

[TUGBrian]

its the non conference games that were pathetic...

 

[am1]

FSU and OSU got a conference championship boost and a 12th win.

Oklahoma losing hurts the big XII and helped FSU.

TCU had no reason to be at number 3 last week just weakens the process.

In basketball it is very easy to play more games and a few games are played at the same arena. Try that in football and it will not work.

The solution is to keep to 4. Have the BIG XII have a conference championship game or at least name a champion and I am sure we can all agree that teams need to boost their OOC schedules. I would do away with 1A games counting towards bowl eligibility to start. A university should not send their athletes in to get embarrassed for a payday. That also would mean less bowl games which is a good thing.

 

[Elan]

its the non conference games that were pathetic...

Perhaps, but TCU's "cupcake" game Saturday was a conference game.

 

[Clemson Fan]

I have no idea whether the committee got it right or not, but what's their justification for dropping a team that wins 55-3 from 3 to 6? What a joke of a process............

I like the fluidity of it. The previous polls used to be so rigid that they would only drop a team if they lost. It made those preseason polls way more important then they should've been. Now at least they seem to be weighing a lot more variables. TCU rose to #3 because their resume was more complete at the time then Baylor's. Once Baylor completed their resume of beating a very good KSU team (something that TCU already had on their resume), then the head to head came into play and they jumped TCU which I thought they would. If OSU won by say less then a TD, then I think Baylor would've gotten the 4th spot.

People were screaming how the committee put themselves in a bind by putting TCU #3 last week because they thought how could they drop them after they were pretty sure to beat a bad ISU team. That logic was based on how the AP poll used to operate which as we've seen no longer applicable.

 

[TUGBrian]

samford, minn, and smu werent however. that said, I put those same 3 cupcakes on the same level as alabamas 3 "bye weeks" as well.

just seems the discussion of strength of schedule and non-conference opponents only applies to non sec schools when discussing them.

It also clearly shows that teams should "front weight" their games....as its super obvious a team can have a bad loss, but erase its meaning by playing well the rest of the season provided the loss comes early enough.

 

[Elan]

Anyone can spin this any way they want, and I'm not saying that the committee got the 4 teams wrong. But the process is flawed. I can't imagine how TCU feels after getting promoted to the 3rd slot, blowing out a team on Saturday and waking up to find out they've been passed by a team that gets massive credit for blowing out a team that lost to 5-7 Northwestern. TCU's lone loss was a questionable loss to the 5th best team in the nation. Did the committee tell Bowlsby up front that not playing a 13th game was going to ream his conference? It all reeks, IMO.

 

[TUGBrian]

I myself couldnt swallow putting TCU in and leaving baylor out for the sole purpose of head to head.

if there are any valid metrics of being able to determine team A is better than team B...playing each other has to be at the top.

 

[ampaholic]

I like the fluidity of it. The previous polls used to be so rigid that they would only drop a team if they lost. It made those preseason polls way more important then they should've been. Now at least they seem to be weighing a lot more variables. TCU rose to #3 because their resume was more complete at the time then Baylor's. Once Baylor completed their resume of beating a very good KSU team (something that TCU already had on their resume), then the head to head came into play and they jumped TCU which I thought they would. If OSU won by say less then a TD, then I think Baylor would've gotten the 4th spot.

People were screaming how the committee put themselves in a bind by putting TCU #3 last week because they thought how could they drop them after they were pretty sure to beat a bad ISU team. That logic was based on how the AP poll used to operate which as we've seen no longer applicable.

I agree - it is a new age with the committee being able to judge in real time rather than standings being sort of cast in stone like the old BCS was.

I think Brian will get to stop whining about this whole thing on Jan 1st when his Noles play some real competition.

 

[am1]

If Baylor and TCU played in a defacto conference championship(or co championship) game yesterday I think that winner would have got in.

 

[TUGBrian]

im sure folks will still find a way to downplay the victory if its yet another close FSU win.

 

[Elan]

I agree - it is a new age with the committee being able to judge in real time rather than standings being sort of cast in stone like the old BCS was.

So then, are you saying that "eye test" is the determining factor? In other words, we don't care that you got beat by a crappy team in an early season game, you look like one of the 4 best teams right now? Mind you, I'm ok with that. But if that's the case, why not say that at the outset? And why rank the teams during the course of the season, if the only thing that matters is how they're playing at the end?

 

["Roger"]

.... they've been passed by a team that gets massive credit for blowing out a team that lost to 5-7 Northwestern....

I'm not saying that Ohio State should be in, but the accomplishment of beating Wisconsin by a score of 59 to 0 is better than what you give them credit for. They shut out a team that was averaging 37 points a game and held a running back averaging something close to eight yards a carry to 2.9 yard a carry. Wisconsin's yardage total of 258 compares with a season average of 482. Admittedly Wisconsin did not have the strongest schedule, but I bet at least three of their prior opponents will be in bowl games.

Also, if you want to pick on the fact that Ohio State's opponent lost to a 5 and 7 Northwestern team, you might then note (as Brian is more than willing to) that Alabama (ranked number 1) LOST (as opposed to beat by the score of 59 to 0) to a team that got blown out (30 to 0) by a 6 and 6 Arkansas team. Transitivity is not a property that applies to sports.

**********

I doubt that the playoffs will be expanded. College teams can only play so many games, so controversy will always be part of the post season.

Giving up the bunny games to shorten the non-bowl game season is not feasible. First of all, every school would then have a shortened season which would destroy the economics of football for the non bowl teams. (Not enough games to pay for the high cost of football.) Also, the major powers want to play enough bunny games to ensure some sort of bowl appearance during their mediocre seasons.

 

[Elan]

Also, if you want to pick on the fact that Ohio State's opponent lost to a 5 and 7 Northwestern team, you might then note (as Brian is more than willing to) that Alabama (ranked number 1) LOST (as opposed to beat by the score of 59 to 0) to a team that got blown out (30 to 0) by a 6 and 6 Arkansas team. Transitivity is not a property that applies to sports.

**********

I doubt that the playoffs will be expanded. College teams can only play so many games, so controversy will always be part of the post season.

Giving up the bunny games to shorten the non-bowl game season is not feasible. First of all, every school would then have a shortened season which would destroy the economics of football for the non bowl teams. (Not enough games to pay for the high cost of football.) Also, the major powers want to play enough bunny games to ensure some sort of bowl appearance during their mediocre seasons.

I'm not big on transitivity. But I'm also not big on margin of victory. I don't think running up the score is appropriate in any sport. A 28-0 victory over Wisconsin with the associated stats tells me just as much as 59-0 or whatever.

I bet the playoffs do expand. There's too much money in it for it not to happen. It may take a while, and as I said previously, it might not happen until the CFB powers have assured that all of the playoff revenue flows their way, but I bet it happens. The one thing that may prevent it is if they form 4 mega-conferences and just take the 4 winners, but that's a long shot as well. TV drives college football. And TV is always looking for content. CFB playoffs are great content.

The big schools don't care if the FCS schools wither. Hell, they don't even care about the G5 schools. The B12 would have a playoff spot today if they'd invited BYU and BSU in the last round of realignment, but they're more interested in splitting their money by as small of number as possible than they are about forming a stronger conference. In that sense, serves them right for getting screwed out of a playoff spot.

 

[ampaholic]

I'm not big on transitivity. But I'm also not big on margin of victory. I don't think running up the score is appropriate in any sport. A 28-0 victory over Wisconsin with the associated stats tells me just as much as 59-0 or whatever.

That is a silly notion - it was 30-0 at half time. Are you suggesting the Buckeyes should have let the Badgers back in the game by intentionally playing worse in the second half?

What if they did and the Badgers came back to win 34-30?

It is up to the Badgers to STOP the attack - I NEVER want to see a "mercy rule" in football.

------- And finally - you should realize - it's JUST a game -----------

"If you can't run with the big dogs - STAY on the porch"

 

[Elan]

That is a silly notion - it was 30-0 at half time. Are you suggesting the Buckeyes should have let the Badgers back in the game by intentionally playing worse in the second half?

What if they did and the Badgers came back to win 34-30?

It is up to the Badgers to STOP the attack - I NEVER want to see a "mercy rule" in football.

"If you can't run with the big dogs - STAY on the porch"

That wasn't the point. The point is that OSU seemingly got extra credit for such a lop sided victory, which encourages teams in the playoff hunt to run up the score. Just like the BCS system did before it attempted to de-emphasize margin of victory. The fact is OSU beat a decent team by a comfortable margin -- the game was never in doubt. That's all anyone should need to know. The committee referred to it as "game control".

 

[Clemson Fan]

I was wrong about Clemson getting the Orange Bowl over GT. I didn't know that the Orange Bowl selection was also tied into the committee. The Orange Bowl selection was locked into the next highest ranked ACC team by the committee. It hasn't been that way in the past and the Orange Bowl selection committee had more leeway in the past.

Oh well, their game against Oklahoma should be a good one.

 

[csxjohn]

I listened to the committee chairman after the selections were announce and some of what he said is that the Big 12 determined that TCU and Baylor are co-champions and that was put in the equation.

What that told me was that the conference hurt both teams chances my not naming One True Champion.

Having one less game than the others also hurt them.
As someone said earlier, 12 wins is better than 11.

I will personally take credit for helping OSU win yesterday, I did not bet on the game. Had I bet on OSU I'm pretty sure the score would have been reversed. I doubt they'll give me any credit though.

 

[kwilson]

Being a long time Duck fan I am gratified that no one is questioning their right to be in this playoff. Having been outmuscled in the past they have worked hard to bulk up for this season playoffs.We WILL pop the FSU bubble!

 

[csxjohn]

Being a long time Duck fan I am gratified that no one is questioning their right to be in this playoff. Having been outmuscled in the past they have worked hard to bulk up for this season playoffs.We WILL pop the FSU bubble!

I'm looking forward to seeing Oregon play Ohio State, they were the best looking teams this past week end.

Of the 5 games I watched, Oregon is the one I thought was the best out of all of them and I think everyone here acknowledges they belong near the top, hence no negative comments about them.

 

[Clemson Fan]

I'm looking forward to seeing Oregon play Ohio State, they were the best looking teams this past week end.

Of the 5 games I watched, Oregon is the one I thought was the best out of all of them and I think everyone here acknowledges they belong near the top, hence no negative comments about them.

My only negative comment is that we've seen this dance before from Oregon and they've always been disappointing in the end. Out of the 4 playoff teams, Oregon is actually the one I'll be rooting for.

I'll actually be rooting for your Buckeyes against Alabama, but I have a feeling that 59-0 victory is going to look like fools gold in the end and they'll get rolled by Alabama.