College Football Playoff Predictions!

[Clemson Fan]

And by the way, this also coincides with my prediction of the 3 out of the 4 teams making the playoffs, a couple of weeks ago. Ahem, guess I was right about that one...

Yup, the over looks like it's a winner in that one!

 

[ampaholic]

I don't know what the gang of 12 will do - but I want to see these games:

Alabama vs. FSU

Oregon vs. Ohio State (almost like a Rose Bowl)

So:

Bama
Oregon
Ohio State
FSU

 

[TUGBrian]

wonder if they switch it up to keep the bowls properly (since its the #1 team that has the choice of bowls to play in)

1. oregon
2. bama
3. fsu
4. ohio state

its a bit ridiculous to keep jumping FSU week after week with random teams...even if it is just to keep the 1-4 matchup in the sugar bowl....and Oregon absolutely hammering Arizona (their only loss of the season) was a far more impressive win to me than Alabama vs mizzou.

if it were a pure ranking (where the seeding didnt matter)...I see them voting Bama, oregon, fsu, OSU.

however it would appear they believe a bama/fsu matchup in the first round is "in the cards"...so wherever they put bama, fsu will likely sit across from them.

Id think out of all the 3 (bubble teams)...OSU would probably be the best traveling team to face oregon in pasadena.

 

[ace2000]

One conference is going to be really upset today - either the Big 12 or Big 10. If the Big 12 gets left out, it'll almost be like they decided to penalize the one without the conference championship game [I just noticed that ClemsonFan made the same point a few posts ago].

The Big 12 was the stronger conference this year than the Big 10, but on a national level, I don't think people are going to get too excited if TCU or Baylor get left out in favor of a tradition rich Ohio St. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out today.

 

[pedro47]

The dream playoff games are Alabama and Florida State., Orgeon and Ohio State or TCU for the nation title in my opinion.

 

[csxjohn]

If what teams do late in the season counts more than earlier I think OSU should replace TCU some where in the mix.

I watched 5 of the top 6 teams, couldn't get Baylor and I think OSU beating the number 2 defense in the country who also has the country's best runner 59-0 should help their cause.

Is the committee going to drop FSU another spot for squeaking by again? It would be a travesty if they do.

And how about that third sting QB starting his fist game and end up scoring 59points against an excellent D? It was a blow out but I enjoyed every minute. I kept thinking, well, they'll fall apart now, but they never did.

 

[ace2000]

John, congratulations on your Ohio St. win yesterday... they did what they had to do by dominating Wisconsin. I would've never dreamed of that scenario when we were discussing the Buckeye's chances yesterday on here.

 

[pedro47]

John, congratulations on your Ohio St. win yesterday... they did what they had to do by dominating Wisconsin. I would've never dreamed of that scenario when we were discussing the Buckeye's chances yesterday on here.

Congratulation John, Ohio State defeated a team with a third string quarterback. Ohio State should be in the final four.

 

[am1]

I am going to go with:

Bama
Oregon
FSU
OSU - 12 wins is better then 11.

I do not want 8 teams but this year there would be a clear 8 to make the playoff. Even so first 2 teams out would be the only ones to beat 1 and 2.

 

["Roger"]

A modest proposal...

Since everyone is so in love with playoffs and there is a lot of debate about the final two positions in the championship playoffs with a lot of time before they occur, why not have a separate playoff between Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, and Iowa State? The championship selection committee could use those results to better evaluate the merits of Ohio State, Florida State, Baylor and TCU and their recent wins.

Then again, if we were to go to an eight team playoff, there would be a lot of debate about the last two teams to make it into that playoff (and one of the final two teams could easily win a couple of games making those on the outside angry that they weren't given a chance). So lets go to a sixteen team playoff. That would give a team that makes it into the championship game a sixteen game season. Lots of money generated and the few players with a chance to make it into the NFL would be given better job training by experiencing what a full season in the NFL would be like.

And ...

 

[beejaybeeohio]

Hope it's the Bucks!

I was afraid of a blowout in yesterday's BIG championship game after the Bucks lost J.T. Barrett and the team had to face a top defense and an awesome running back, but never imagined the blowout would be by the Bucks!

Hope there's good news for us at 12:30 this afternoon!

 

[MULTIZ321]

Why TCU in the College Football Championship May Cost Dallas Millions - by Robert Tuchman/ SportsMoney/ Forbes.com

"In the most recent College Football Playoff Pool POOL +0.73%, Texas Christian University jumped up to the #3 ranking, placing them in tremendous position to earn a spot in the first-ever college football playoff tournament. The perennial powerhouse Ohio State Buckeyes sat on the outside of the top four looking in, despite looking dominant over the course of their last several games.

While it is true that everyone loves a good Cinderella story, the financial implications of TCU making it into this inaugural postseason tournament rather than OSU are rather significant. For both the NCAA and the city hosting the game, that particular outcome would be relatively catastrophic..."


Richard

 

[csxjohn]

Why TCU in the College Football Championship May Cost Dallas Millions - by Robert Tuchman/ SportsMoney/ Forbes.com

"In the most recent College Football Playoff Pool POOL +0.73%, Texas Christian University jumped up to the #3 ranking, placing them in tremendous position to earn a spot in the first-ever college football playoff tournament. The perennial powerhouse Ohio State Buckeyes sat on the outside of the top four looking in, despite looking dominant over the course of their last several games.

While it is true that everyone loves a good Cinderella story, the financial implications of TCU making it into this inaugural postseason tournament rather than OSU are rather significant. For both the NCAA and the city hosting the game, that particular outcome would be relatively catastrophic..."


Richard

Well, if money is the driving force behind all this as I and others have stated, OSU is a shoe-in. Yesterday's game will be all the committee needs to justify that choice.

"To have TCU in that game rather than OSU, the difference could easily be tens of millions of dollars for the host city." From the above link.

Again, if OSU does not make it I have no complaints with the committee but if you were the host city, which team would you want in the game?

 

[Elan]

A modest proposal...

Since everyone is so in love with playoffs and there is a lot of debate about the final two positions in the championship playoffs with a lot of time before they occur, why not have a separate playoff between Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, and Iowa State? The championship selection committee could use those results to better evaluate the merits of Ohio State, Florida State, Baylor and TCU and their recent wins.

Then again, if we were to go to an eight team playoff, there would be a lot of debate about the last two teams to make it into that playoff (and one of the final two teams could easily win a couple of games making those on the outside angry that they weren't given a chance). So lets go to a sixteen team playoff. That would give a team that makes it into the championship game a sixteen game season. Lots of money generated and the few players with a chance to make it into the NFL would be given better job training by experiencing what a full season in the NFL would be like.

And ...

As I've previously pointed out, at a certain field size there's little probability that the last team in will win it all. Any decent scientist would tell you that it's not difficult to determine the optimum field size, but it takes time. Since nobody wants to wait for the data to come in, we're accepting an educated guess. Science would also tell us that 4 is a poor guess. This year is not an anomaly, it is the norm. Actually, if anything, the field this year is likely more clear cut to the average casual fan than most will be.

No system is perfect. And upsets are part of CFB, so they have the capability to destroy any model, regardless of how ideal. But that doesn't mean the model can't still be improved significantly.

 

[Elan]

If anyone wants to look at a computer algorithm that is probably as unbiased as any of the well know ranking algorithms, go to

http://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html

I don't remember all of the specifics, but back in the BCS days, I looked into many of the computer models used. The Colley Matrix is (or at least used to be) unbiased in the sense that all teams start as equals. As the season progresses, when you beat teams, you acquire some of their strength, so beating a strong team gives you a larger bump than beating a weak team, and losing to a strong team isn't as penal as losing to a weak team. Every week, the entire matrix needs to be recalculated, because past results are influenced by the current week's play. Very logical.

Looking at the Colley Matrix, I have no problem with the top 8 teams being in a playoff. I think every team in Colley's top 8 has a more than trivial chance of winning 3 games against the others. I suspect, and this could be easily remedied, if true, that the teams with 13 games are getting an unfair bump/ding from their championship game wins/losses when compared to the teams with only 12 games.

To be perfectly honest, I'd be in favor of bumping the field to 8 and replacing the committee with something like an enhanced Colley. That would be a much more fair, logical, transparent and scientifically sound system.

 

[TUGBrian]

tons of folks bringing up the argument last night of:

Well when we had the BCS and only 2, you guys argued we needed 4 as there are a number of teams left out.

now that we have 4, everyone is arguing we need 8 as there are a number of teams left out....

 

[Elan]

tons of folks bringing up the argument last night of:

Well when we had the BCS and only 2, you guys argued we needed 4 as there are a number of teams left out.

now that we have 4, everyone is arguing we need 8 as there are a number of teams left out....

People that don't understand logic and statistics argue all kinds of things. Take it for what it's worth.......

 

[ace2000]

tons of folks bringing up the argument last night of:

Well when we had the BCS and only 2, you guys argued we needed 4 as there are a number of teams left out.

now that we have 4, everyone is arguing we need 8 as there are a number of teams left out....

I believed I've made that argument a couple of times in this thread.

But then again I don't understand logic and statistics and like to argue all kinds of things. Take it for what it's worth....... LOL.

 

[Elan]

I believed I've made that argument a couple of times in this thread.

But then again I don't understand logic and statistics and like to argue all kinds of things. Take it for what it's worth....... LOL.

I could argue that we should just let the committee tell us the best team and be done with it. Screw the playoffs. That doesn't make sense either.

 

[Clemson Fan]

tons of folks bringing up the argument last night of:

Well when we had the BCS and only 2, you guys argued we needed 4 as there are a number of teams left out.

now that we have 4, everyone is arguing we need 8 as there are a number of teams left out....

Yup, and people argue about the bubble teams who don't make it into the 65 team field NCAA tournament even though those teams have no chance in hell of winning it.

I just want to see good teams playing good compelling games.

 

[am1]

Yup, and people argue about the bubble teams who don't make it into the 65 team field NCAA tournament even though those teams have no chance in hell of winning it.

I just want to see good teams playing good compelling games.

I am going to say basketball is much different. Maybe not win it but remember the bottom seeds are the week conference champions and not the bubble teams.

George Mason had no business in the tourney but made it and went further then anybody thought.

 

[pedro47]

The final four
#1 Alabama vs # 4 Ohio State
#2 Oregon vs #3 Florida State

 

[ace2000]

I can live with that and I believe Oregon is the only one of those teams with any remote possibility of beating Alabama.

 

[Clemson Fan]

It's official.

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. OSU
5. Baylor
6. TCU

Sorry Big 12. Maybe if you didn't refuse to name a conference champion you could've gotten Baylor in. Baylor got screwed by their own conference IMO.

 

[Elan]

The basketball analogies are relevant. Someone's always going to bitch about being the first team left out. But until a 16 seed wins the basketball tourney, those complaints are unfounded. The lowest seed to ever win the tourney, IIRC, was a #8 'Nova. That tells anyone with a moderate amount of common sense that the field could easily be reduced to 32 teams without a high probability of screwing anyone. But 64 teams means lots more money and only cost them two more days of playing, so they stick with it.

Analogously, in CFB, if we wanted to wait for the data, perhaps it would show that no seed higher than 4 ever won the title, but I'd bet big money against it. And if it did happen, I'd argue that 4 teams was the right number. Given that we don't want to wait for data to come in, CFB should do the same thing as basketball and opt for a potentially too large of playoff field over one that's too small.