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Facebook IPO...are you going to buy?

pacodemountainside

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Lets see! Stock goes up or down! 50/50

In Vegas win or lose 50/50

Since S & P and NASDA are not adding to their stocks in near future, big jump from index funds having to buy is moot.

Earlier buyers are wanting to cash out. Another lockup expires in November!

Go with Jim!

About only time I look at is when I get e-mail saying check this out. Reminds me of the Christmas news letter rather than a card!




Are We All Braggarts Now?

Boasting Epidemic Goes Viral; Crowing Boosts Self Esteem but It's Annoying

By ELIZABETH BERNSTEIN-WSJ


Friends, family and co-workers: I think you're fabulous—just not quite as fabulous as you think you are.

Consider your Facebook status updates:


Elizabeth Bernstein on Lunch Break looks at bragging, including why do people do it and what can we do about it.
.
Best gift ever from the best husband ever.

Swam 30 minutes at a very fast time despite the large amount of Chardonnay served to me on the plane last night.

Got my first royalty check for my book!

Sunset sail. Turned into a moonlight sail. Shooting stars everywhere…Perfect.

A benign reading would be that these are just typical daily updates. But folks, this is bragging, whether you recognize it or not. And it's out of control. How did this happen?

Clearly, the Internet has given us a global audience for our bombast, and social media sites encourage it. We're all expected to be perfect all the time. The result is more people carefully stage-managing their online image.

Boasting isn't just a problem on the Internet. In a society of unrelenting competition—where reality-show contestants duke it out for the approval of aging celebrities and pastors have publicists—is it any wonder we market ourselves relentlessly?

Live Chat: Bragging in the Facebook Age
Read the full transcript of the conversation at WSJ.com/Juggle.
Vote: Have your interactions affected personal relationships?


In part, you can blame the economy. In the most competitive job market in memory, the lesson is clear: You must demonstrate—on multiple platforms—that you excel above all others.

Changes in parenting style also play a role. Nowadays, every moment—first day of school, exhausted nap in the back seat of the car—is documented. The problem is that these shared moments can easily come off as crowing about how great Mom and Dad are to have raised such an adorable kid.

We've become so accustomed to boasting that we don't even realize what we're doing. And it's harmful to our relationships because it turns people off.

So why keep it up?

"We brag because we can," says Julie Hanks, a licensed clinical social worker who has a therapy clinic in Salt Lake City. "And a lot more people are listening."


People brag for all sorts of reasons, she says: to appear worthy of attention or love or to try and cover up our deepest insecurities. To prove to ourselves that we're OK, that people from our past who said we wouldn't measure up were wrong. Or simply because we're excited when good things happen to us.

And talking about ourselves feels good. According to the results of a series of experiments conducted by Harvard University neuroscientists and published in May in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the reward areas of our brain—the same areas that respond to "primary rewards" such as food and sex—are activated when we talk about ourselves. We devote between 30% and 40% of our conversation time to doing just that, according to the study, which didn't focus on boasting specifically, but on self-disclosure.

In one experiment, the researchers offered people small amounts of money to answer questions about themselves or others. They generally were willing to forgo earnings in order to talk about themselves.

Unfortunately, some people can't seem to tell the difference between sharing positive information that others might actually want to know and flat-out crowing. Let me help: Bragging involves comparison, whether stated or implied. "It's being overbearing and showing excessive pride," says Ms. Hanks.

Often, bragging is in the eye of the beholder, as Faith McKinney found out at a church picnic one recent Sunday. The Indianapolis postal-service worker, 45, was telling an older member of her congregation about the interviews she does with celebrities for her freelance gig at a local online entertainment magazine, when her cousin—the one she donated a kidney to a few years ago—suddenly piped up: "There she goes again, dropping names."

"You could have knocked me over with a feather," says Ms. McKinney, who admits she mentions the famous people she's met at every opportunity because she feels this makes her more interesting

.
She continued her story—and even dropped a few more names, on purpose. But she felt humiliated, especially when she remembered that another relative had recently asked her why her "big head" was always in the photos of work she posted online. "If these are people who love me saying this, what am I to expect from strangers?"

According to yet-to-be-published research at Columbia University, browsing Facebook or another social media site increases our levels of narcissism as well as our self-esteem.

And while we're more likely to be modest with our friends and family in person, these are the people we most want to see our enhanced updates online, says Keith Wilcox, assistant professor of marketing at Columbia Business School, who conducted the study.

"Their opinions matter more," he says, adding that online, the usual social norms of modesty don't necessarily hold.


"It's become a phenomenon where if someone posts a status update and 500 people see it and no one objects, it must be true," says Jennifer Mirsky, 45, a digital content strategist in New York.

"But could it really be that everyone else has a husband as thoughtful as the heroes of romance novels, children who combine the brilliance of Einstein with the winning charms of Shirley Temple, and jobs packed with wall-to-wall glamorous events?"

Ms. Mirsky says her strategy is to simply hit the "like" button and move on. "You input one keystroke of indeterminate meaning to say 'hooray for you!' " she says.

So how should you deal with a braggart?

"Feel sorry for them, because they're doing this impulsive, destructive thing that won't help them in the long run," says Simine Vazire, a research psychologist and associate professor at Washington University in St. Louis. Research on self-enhancement shows that people who brag make a good first impression, but that it diminishes over time.

When Ian McKenzie, 30, a schoolteacher in Lincoln, U.K., goes out to dinner with his wife and their friends, he says, everyone soon gets around to bragging—about the gadgets and cars they own, their kids, their vacations. "I have my fill of it and start to act up," he says.

He mentions how he went to school with Prince William. (He attended St. Andrews in Scotland at the same time but never knew the prince.) Or he tells of the time he saw supermodel Kate Moss. (She got out of a car near where he was walking; he had no idea who she was until his wife clued him in.)

The reaction? "Stunned silence," he says. "Hopefully, it will bring the pudding course on quicker and there will be a rush for the door."

Write to Elizabeth Bernstein at Bonds@wsj.com or follow her column at www.facebook.com/EBernstein-WSJ
 
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Elan

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That short squeeze hasn't worked out thus far. There may be too many shares being released and too little demand to squeeze the shorts. If you are long on FB, it is advisable at this point to hedge the downside with some put options. Especially with earnings on Oct. 25th and the humongous lockup release in November. If earnings os not overwhelmingly positive, it might get UGLY.

I didn't say I was going to play it. But short squeezes are a great way to make some very quick money on equities one would have no interest in owning otherwise. I almost always check short interest on a high profile stock like this if I'm thinking about playing.
 

Ken555

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That short squeeze hasn't worked out thus far. There may be too many shares being released and too little demand to squeeze the shorts. If you are long on FB, it is advisable at this point to hedge the downside with some put options. Especially with earnings on Oct. 25th and the humongous lockup release in November. If earnings os not overwhelmingly positive, it might get UGLY.

It's not ugly already?
 

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"Roger"

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Tying in with Paco's post ...

I noticed with regard to people who bet on football, whenever they get it right, they brag about how they had it figured out (so and so would have a good matchup, so and so never does as well in cold weather, etc., etc.). Whenever they lose a bet, they say well it was a bet and that's gambling.

Put differently, all of their wins are because they outsmarted the odds makers. All of their loses are just what you would expect some of the time from making bets. Since none of their wins were luck, they must be truly unlucky to lose all of their just plain bets.

Same thing for the stock market. Whenever someone makes a good gain they will tell you that they knew this company was going to do well because (yada, yada, yada). Stock market loses ... just bad luck. Again, they must really be unlucky given that they never had a lucky gain ... all of their gains were because they were better analysts than other investors. Just their loses are a matter of (unfortunate) gambles.
 

Beefnot

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Tying in with Paco's post ...

I noticed with regard to people who bet on football, whenever they get it right, they brag about how they had it figured out (so and so would have a good matchup, so and so never does as well in cold weather, etc., etc.). Whenever they lose a bet, they say well it was a bet and that's gambling.

Put differently, all of their wins are because they outsmarted the odds makers. All of their loses are just what you would expect some of the time from making bets. Since none of their wins were luck, they must be truly unlucky to lose all of their just plain bets.

Same thing for the stock market. Whenever someone makes a good gain they will tell you that they knew this company was going to do well because (yada, yada, yada). Stock market loses ... just bad luck. Again, they must really be unlucky given that they never had a lucky gain ... all of their gains were because they were better analysts than other investors. Just their loses are a matter of (unfortunate) gambles.

Several months ago, someone asked me if he would be better off investing $500 in an ipad or a share of Apple stock (what it was trading for at the time). I told him if he was intent to invest in a depreciating asset, then at least with the ipad he has some utility to show for it. Oh how I was monumentally off the mark on that one.
 

pacodemountainside

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Read and weep!

Don't fight the tape!

Don't sell short and potentially unlimited losses. Use puts and know your maximum loss up front

He who sells what isn't hisn, must pay it back or go to prison as my college Investments prof was fond of saying!

BAILING OUT
By SHAYNDI RAICE

Peter Thiel, Facebook Inc.'s FB -3.80% earliest investor and a board member, has sold the majority of his shares in the social network, as restrictions on insider selling begin to lift.


Mr. Thiel, a partner at venture-capital firm Founders Fund, invested $500,000 in Facebook in 2004 as its first major investor when the company was valued at a mere $4.9 million.

Peter Thiel, famed venture capitalist and early investor in Facebook, sold more than 20 million shares of Facebook after his lockup expired last week. David Benoit has details on Markets Hub. Photo: Getty Images.
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Mr. Thiel has now made more than $1 billion from his Facebook investment, and he still owns stock worth about $112 million. On Monday, Facebook's shares rose 5% to $20.01.

In a filing Monday, Mr. Thiel disclosed that he sold 20.1 million Facebook shares, and distributed another 2.2 million shares to investors, as part of a selling plan known as a 10b5-1 plan that he agreed to in May. The sales leave him with about 5.6 million shares.

Mr. Thiel sold the most recent tranche of Facebook stock for an average of $19.73 a share late last week, netting him about $395.8 million. Had he sold the 20.1 million shares at the time of the IPO—when the stock price was $38—it would have been valued at $762 million.



Facebook's History


.But Mr. Thiel will still make an immense profit on his small bet. He already sold some Facebook shares before the company went public, and in the May public offering, sold 16.8 million shares for $638 million.

A Facebook spokeswoman declined to comment. A spokesman for Mr. Thiel declined to comment.

The sale comes at a sensitive time for Facebook. Last week, more than 271 million Facebook shares came onto the market after the expiration of a "lock-up period" forbidding sales by insiders. The new shares caused Facebook's stock to drop to about half the value of its IPO price.

It isn't unusual for early investors to sell their stakes in public companies, especially if the company was private for many years. Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg was loathe to take the company public, but said he did so in part to provide liquidity to employees and early investors, like Mr. Thiel.

Facebook faces more lock-up expirations in October, November and December, which will put more than 1.4 billion Facebook shares onto the market.

Mr. Thiel is a Silicon Valley veteran who founded electronic payments company PayPal in 1998 and served as its chairman and CEO before selling PayPal to eBay Inc. EBAY -1.47% for $1.5 billion in 2002. He is also the founder of hedge fund Clarium Capital Management and has invested in other social media start-ups like social games maker Zynga Inc. ZNGA +0.17% and professional networking site LinkedIn Corp. LNKD +1.81%

—Scott Thurm contributed
 

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Finally have some free time to surf forums again.

Hmmm. Looks like what I predicted to happen, happened.

Also, looks like Zynga is going down fast (and with FB valuation tied to it, thats not good)
http://arstechnica.com/business/201...ice-plummets-company-hemorrhaging-top-talent/

Additionally, Instagram is learning the hard way of making a financial deal based on stock price. 2/3rds of the price paid for Instagram was from FB shares of stock, which have dropped 30% since the deal. Whoops.
 

Beefnot

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Finally have some free time to surf forums again.

Hmmm. Looks like what I predicted to happen, happened.

Also, looks like Zynga is going down fast (and with FB valuation tied to it, thats not good)
http://arstechnica.com/business/201...ice-plummets-company-hemorrhaging-top-talent/

Additionally, Instagram is learning the hard way of making a financial deal based on stock price. 2/3rds of the price paid for Instagram was from FB shares of stock, which have dropped 30% since the deal. Whoops.

Seeing as Instagram was a $50 million company that was purchased for $1 billion, they shouldn't be complaining.
 

hypnotiq

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Shit, I think $50mil is generous. :)

I find it pretty astounding that companies are being given these ridiculous valuations given what they are "providing".
 

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Shit, I think $50mil is generous. :)

I find it pretty astounding that companies are being given these ridiculous valuations given what they are "providing".

Me as well but with the internet they instantly get a worldwide market.
 

Ken555

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FB at $18 today.
 

hypnotiq

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Down down baby...

Also the best is yet to come...
On November 14, as the biggest lock-up expires, Zuckerberg and other investors will be allowed to sell theirs, should they so choose—1.2 billion shares of the company will be made available.
 
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Beefnot

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I was planning to load the boat on put options in advance of that date, until I got walloped by Yelp's recent masssive lockup release that actually created a short squeeze. Go figure!
 

Elan

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I was planning to load the boat on put options in advance of that date, until I got walloped by Yelp's recent masssive lockup release that actually created a short squeeze. Go figure!

Funny you mention that. I was going to cite YELP's recent move as an example of how one can get toasted by short covering. I was long YELP a while back, rode it for a few months and eventually sold for about a 3% loss. Just felt it was too much risk for the potential reward. One has to have a strong stomach to play the internet stocks (FB, YELP, ZNGA, LNKD, etc).
 

pwrshift

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I'm too old to take a stake in a risky stock That doesnt pay dividends, even though it might go to $300 by next year when Twitter comes out!

Brian
 

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I'm too old to take a stake in a risky stock That doesnt pay dividends, even though it might go to $300 by next year when Twitter comes out!

Brian

It's not so much that I'm too old, it's just that it doesn't fit my strategy. Kudos to those of you who did well.
 

Beefnot

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Boy was I phenomenally wrong about FB back then. Although recently I did by some out of the money call options right before their earnings release and made about 3500% return (no typo). Had I bigger huevos and held my calls longer, I could have made 7000%.
 

MichaelColey

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Wish I would of bought when this thread was going on . Facebook went over $50 a share today .
That's a 31% increase over the past year and a half. That's nothing to sneeze at, but over the same time the Nasdaq has gone up 36%. I wouldn't consider a slightly sub-market performance during a bull market to be that desirable.
 
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