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Hurricane Lane

DaveNV

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2B12300A-9387-4745-8E3C-2F9FEE104B59.jpeg


This doesn’t look good. Hang on, Hawaii!

Dave
 

slip

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I just heard it looks to pass within 75 miles of Kauai.
 

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Last prog shows in may pass close to Kauai, but by then it is forecast to be downgraded to a tropical storm. Also note the "cone" shown on the chart is the range of possible paths, with the black line being the most likely forecast path based on current models. The cone is NOT the projected hurricane wind impacts.

Screen Shot 2018-08-20 at 11.08.10 PM.png
 

DaveNV

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^^^ Way better image. I got the one I posted from a cell phone post a friend made on Facebook, and it didn't blow up very well. We'll see how the Islands fare. They've had enough crazy weather for awhile.

Dave
 

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Last edited:

Chrispee

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We’re at the Waiohai right now and there’s lots of talk around the BBQs, but nothing issued by the resort just yet. Could be interesting as we’ve been here during a flash flood warning before and a lot of water passes through the property.
 

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11:00 p.m. update did not look good .... while we could still dodge the bullet ... I fully expect tomorrow to be gas station, water, electric generator, and toilet paper day .... this is when a lot of people start buying all kinds of stuff .... if you need gas for the car ... go fill up now
 

slip

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I think they are pretty uncertain at this point. They have models showing completely different outcomes.

One model does show going over Molokai. https://www.google.com/search?q=hur...AUIESgB&biw=1024&bih=698#imgrc=g5rE0kmp3JzTfM:

The yellow line seems to go over the Wavecrest. But there a ton of other lines.

We should have a better idea by tomorrow.

Yes, this is changing all the time. I posted what was saw at the time. Everyone will know more in a couple days. Stay Safe!!
 

dsmrp

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11:00 p.m. update did not look good .... while we could still dodge the bullet ... I fully expect tomorrow to be gas station, water, electric generator, and toilet paper day .... this is when a lot of people start buying all kinds of stuff .... if you need gas for the car ... go fill up now

Yup, I remember that, especially the TP rationing in the 70's when there was a long stevedores strike LOL. I better remind my brother in Honolulu about the storm.

Still with Lane pssing up on leeward side, Kona, Waikoloa, Kihei, Kaanapali, Kapolei, Waipahu, Waianae coast etc would get strongest winds, rain and tidal surges.
Hope Lane veers west west west!!!
 

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This is the most current chart with ALL models, wind cones and warnings etc....
From here: Hawaii News Now

upload_2018-8-21_10-45-33.png
 

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Hurricane Watches Issued For Hawaii And Maui Counties

upload_2018-8-21_11-53-55.png


Key Points

SUMMARY OF 11 AM ET...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 152.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii county and Maui
County.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
*Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight.
Hazards Affecting the United States or its Territories

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area on Thursday.
RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the
weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands this week. These swells will produce large and potentially
damaging surf along exposed south and west facing shorelines.

Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Hilo 26%
South Point 75%
Kailua-Kona 71%
Kahului 42%
Hana 58%
Lanai City 70%
Kaunakakai 67%
Barking Sands 55%
Honolulu 49%
Niihau 54%
upload_2018-8-21_11-54-20.png
 

slip

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Now Cat 5 hurricane, expected to weaken as approaches .... but weaking from Cat 5 ... this is not good
 

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truly hope for the best for anyone impacted by this storm on the islands! be it tugger or resident :(
 

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At Ko Olina now. Staff just put up posters asking us to get 5days of non perishable food and water. Yikes. I tried to get out tomorrow but all flights are booked. It will be interesting ...
 

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Safe travel for those returning and arriving

Airline Travel Alerts


Hawaiian Airlines
https://www.hawaiianairlines.com/alerts/travel-waiver-for-hurricane-lane

Effective immediately, guests holding tickets for travel on Hawaiian Airlines or Hawaiian Airlines codeshare flights departing to/from/within/via the State of Hawaii (LIH/HNL/OGG/JHM/MKK/LNY/ITO/KOA), from August 21, 2018 through August 26, 2018 will be permitted a one-time reservation change with waiver of change fee provided that:

  • Ticket was issued on/before August 21, 2018
  • Affected flight(s) is/are originally scheduled for travel from August 21, 2018 through August 26, 2018
  • Changes must be rebooked and ticketed to new flights no later than September 9, 2018
  • New travel must commence no later than September 9, 2018
In addition, for changes made to new flights on or before September 9, 2018, any resulting difference in fare(s) will be waived provided that change is made to the same compartment (i.e. Coach to Coach or First Class to First Class) and there is no change in origin and destination. For changes made to new flights after September 9, 2018, the change fee will be waived but applicable difference in fare will be collected.

Changes to origin and/or destination or connecting/stopover point will be permitted without change fee and are subject to applicable fare difference.

Normal refund rules will apply. There will be no waiver of any applicable cancellation fees for refundable tickets and no refunds permitted on non-refundable tickets related to this event.

All changes must be made by calling our U.S. Reservations Department at 1-800-367-5320Opens external link to page that may not meet accessibility guidelines.


Alaska Airlines
https://www.alaskaair.com/content/advisories/travel-advisories?lid=Homepage&int=AS_HomePage_Advisory

Travel To/From
Kauai (LIH)
Kona (KOA)
Maui (OGG)
Oahu (HNL)

Tickets Purchased On/Before
August 21, 2018

Original Travel Dates
August 22 - 25, 2018

Exception Policy
We will waive the change fees and the difference in the price of the ticket if the new travel is booked to or from the affected cities in the same cabin and travel is completed on or before August 30, 2018. Additional taxes may apply. You may request a refund if you choose not to travel at all. Tickets must be exchanged or refunded prior to the departure of your original flight. Rebook your flight or apply for a refund online.


Delta Airlines
https://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US/traveling-with-us/advisories/hurricane-lane.html

Hurricane Lane may impact travel to/from the following cities. Check flight status frequently for up-to-the-minute info about your flight plans, or get updates sent directly to your mobile device or by email with One-Time Flight Notification.

RESCHEDULING FLIGHTS
If you wish to cancel your trip as a result of a flight cancellation or significant delay (90 minutes or more), you are entitled to a refund for the unused portion of your ticket. Even if your flight is not canceled, you may make a one-time change to your ticket without fee if you are scheduled to travel to, from, or through the following destination(s) on Delta, Delta Connection®, or Delta-coded flights during the specified time periods listed below.

AFFECTED CITIES (TO / FROM / THROUGH)
Honolulu, HI (HNL)
Kona, HI (KOA)
Lihue, HI (LIH)
Maui, HI (OGG)
IMPACTED TRAVEL DATE(S) August 23-24, 2018

TICKET MUST BE REISSUED ON OR BEFORE August 27, 2018

REBOOKED TRAVEL MUST BEGIN NO LATER THAN August 27, 2018

American Airlines

https://www.aa.com/i18n/travel-info/travel-alerts.jsp

Hurricane Lane - Hawaii

Information current as of August 22, 2018

If you’re traveling to/through/from:
  • Honolulu, Hawaii (HNL)
  • Kona, Hawaii (KOA)
  • Kauai Island, Hawaii (LIH)
  • Kahului, Hawaii (OGG)
The change fee may be waived if you:
  • Are traveling on an American Airlines flight
  • Bought your ticket by August 20, 2018
  • Are scheduled to travel August 23 - August 24, 2018
  • Can travel August 21 - August 27, 2018
  • Don't change your origin or distination city
  • Rebook in the same cabin or pay the difference
Change your trip
If your trip is eligible, you can change it online. Here’s how:
  • Find your trip
  • If your trip is eligible, you’ll see the option to ‘change trip’ in the toolbar

United Airlines

https://www.united.com/CMS/en-us/travel/news/Pages/travelnotices.aspx?POS=US (see table further down on this page)

Hurricane Lane

Airports:
  • Hilo, HI (ITO)
  • Honolulu, Oahu, HI (HNL)
  • Kahului, Maui, HI (OGG)
  • Kailua-Kona, HI (KOA)
  • Lihue, HI (LIH)
Original travel date(s):

August 21, 2018 - August 26, 2018

Flight changes:The change fee and any difference in fare will be waived for new United flights departing on or before September 9, 2018, as long as travel is rescheduled in the originally ticketed cabin (any fare class) and between the same cities as originally ticketed.
 

taterhed

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Well....this is the latest. Not good news, but not the worst.
Positive thoughts for safe passage.
I hope the volcanoes breath will keep the storm south and keep people safe...
EP142018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_31.png

upload_2018-8-22_7-37-57.png
 

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It has strengthened to a Cat 5, but expected to weaken towards Saturday. Will cause lots of rainfall, flooding and surf damage. Going up the worst case side of Hawaii :(, following edge of high pressure from north.

Hope for high pressure to push southward.
 

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I hope the volcanoes breath will keep the storm south and keep people safe...

The Kilauea eruption has paused or ended...


HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY STATUS REPORT
U.S. Geological Survey
Tuesday, August 21, 2018, 1:06 PM HST (Tuesday, August 21, 2018, 23:06 UTC)


KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010)
19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Kīlauea summit and lower East Rift Zone

Seismicity and ground deformation are negligible at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano. On the volcano's lower East Rift Zone (LERZ), only a few ocean entries are oozing lava; laze plumes are minimal. Sulfur dioxide emission rates at both the summit and LERZ are drastically reduced; the combined rate is lower than at any time since late 2007.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) will continue to closely monitor Kīlauea's seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions for any sign of reactivation, and maintain visual surveillance of the summit and LERZ.

HVO will continue to issue daily updates and additional messages as needed. The next status report will be issued tomorrow morning unless significant changes occur.
 

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Hurricane is stronger but the models look better. EXCEPT for one by my house.

ep142018.png


At Ko Olina now. Staff just put up posters asking us to get 5days of non perishable food and water. Yikes. I tried to get out tomorrow but all flights are booked. It will be interesting ...


I think you should be ok over there. I have MKO unit in my II cart right now. But, I am thinking I better stay at my house because it will be high winds, but hopefully not devastating.

The stores started to get lines last night. If you head out for food, I would go Kapolei Foodland. If they are out of water, buy some other drinks. You should be fine.
 
Last edited:

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We have 3 grandkids staying in Lahaina now with their father. They were able to move to a hotel away from the beach. We just left our MOC first floor ocean front on Saturday. WOW.
 

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Looks better....let's hope it stays that way.

@JIMinNC I was just making an anecdotal remark.....you're correct of course.

Now, if the volcano does spontaneously erupt and push the storm away.....that would truly be a news story.
 

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.... my earlier post was yesterday’s models .... having trouble loading latest
 

JIMinNC

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Looks better....let's hope it stays that way.

@JIMinNC I was just making an anecdotal remark.....you're correct of course.

Now, if the volcano does spontaneously erupt and push the storm away.....that would truly be a news story.

I knew you were being anecdotal, just wanted to make sure that no one put too much faith in Madame Pele. She appears to be resting.
 
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