It depends on how one would use it. For only DVC stays, a SSR contract (really any resale option) should roughly break even or be slightly ahead compared to a reasonably discounted moderate on cash and come out ahead of private rentals for similar options. That includes consideration for yearly dues, the Time Value of Money/Opportunity costs on the up front money and the fact one would draw down the funds over time using them for the accommodations. Obviously every change in a variable would affect the specifics but likely won't affect the principles if one makes good decisions up front and avoids HH/VB, esp VB for WDW stays. But it does represent commitment and risk. One advantage of owning is control another for some is potential access to other options, discount and events. One major advantage of renting is you can access high demand properties inside the home resort window without owning there, since few will own enough home resorts to have this same option as an owner, that can be a major advantage for some.
The only reason I could see going with a DVC is to stay at a resort in walking distance to a park....I can only assume that the 11 month advantage is needed at those resorts (but someone here can correct me if I am wrong)
So when I do the simple back of the napkin math it is something like this (assumes you didn't borrow money to buy this in the first place):
$4-5/point/use year (buy in)
~$6/point MF
Total "amortized" cost = $10-11/point
Cash Rental Cost = $16/point
Difference $5-6/point
Difference from MF - $10/point
Buy in cost high $5X25 = 125/point
Buy in cost (low) $4/25 = 100/point
Assuming no inflation or interest on money
Number of years to break even assuming no waste and rents increase go in line with MF increases (meaning the $10 difference will hold constant when excluding MF impact) and full use every year (no points get thrown out) - 10(low)-12(high).
a 10 year + breakeven on initial cash outlay does not make financial sense to me.
That being said, I could see some financial sense at or under $2/year amortized ($50/point at 25 years to go)
All of a sudden breakeven drops to 5 years or less.
am I missing something?