Tourism in Tanzania, Covid edition

[cman]

4 articles, all about politics. 100% Ken.
Have a little bit of fun my friend, this is a travel forum!

LOL. If you want to be taken seriously, posting YouTube videos as your source is probably not the best way to go about it. If you're suggesting that Tanzania's response is an example to be followed, I'd suggest you just move there.

 

[DannyTS]

LOL. If you want to be taken seriously, posting YouTube videos as your source is probably not the best way to go about it. If you're suggesting that Tanzania's response is an example to be followed, I'd suggest you just move there.

The videos show an unfiltered reality as opposed to media articles written in most cases from abroad. Those articles repeat the same talking points and use the same scary tactics we are well accustomed to. Especially in this context, a video of a wedding shows a lot about how people live, their (lack of) fear of Covid, how healthy and happy they are, how they interact etc.

By the way, your comments are missed on the other thread lol if you want be taken seriously.

Study shows that PCR tests with 35 cycles or more have an accuracy below 3%, meaning up to 97% of positive results could be false positives.

Source please, I would love to see that. Maybe they changed it too;) I would expecially be interested to compare with the new language from the WHO to see if we are talking about the same thing: "Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR...

tugbbs.com

 

[1Kflyerguy]

I have been to Tanzania on Safari. Its not a place i would choose to visit during the current situation.

Even if Pandemic really does stops at their borders, i just would not feel comfortable.

 

[Ken555]

I have been to Tanzania on Safari. Its not a place i would choose to visit during the current situation.

Even if Pandemic really does stops at their borders, i just would not feel comfortable.

This is the sentiment I have heard from friends who used to live there. I just find it difficult to believe that anyone can accept it’s safe there given the outlandish nonsense and policies from its government. It is improbable that the covid infection rate in Tanzania is so low compared to its neighbors that it’s safe to be there.


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[DannyTS]

This is the sentiment I have heard from friends who used to live there. I just find it difficult to believe that anyone can accept it’s safe there given the outlandish nonsense and policies from its government. It is improbable that the covid infection rate in Tanzania is so low compared to its neighbors that it’s safe to be there.


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I thought you were a science guy, I now see you are talking about "sentiment"

I also encourage you to look at the other thread to see why the number of cases you hear of may not be what you think

Study shows that PCR tests with 35 cycles or more have an accuracy below 3%, meaning up to 97% of positive results could be false positives.

Source please, I would love to see that. Maybe they changed it too;) I would expecially be interested to compare with the new language from the WHO to see if we are talking about the same thing: "Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR...

tugbbs.com

 

[DannyTS]

still not mayhem in Tanzania

 

["Roger"]

Boots on the ground...

This is what the US Embassy has with regard to Tanzania (updated 2/10/21):

Highlights:

There has been a significant increase in the number of COVID-19 cases reported by individuals to the U.S. Embassy since January 2021.
The Department of State’s current travel advisory level for Tanzania is Level 3 – Reconsider Travel.
The Tanzanian government has not released aggregate numbers on COVID-19 cases or deaths since April 2020.
Healthcare facilities in Tanzania can become quickly overwhelmed in a healthcare crisis. Limited hospital capacity throughout Tanzania could result in life-threatening delays for emergency medical care.

 

[DannyTS]

Boots on the ground...

This is what the US Embassy has with regard to Tanzania (updated 2/10/21):

Highlights:

There has been a significant increase in the number of COVID-19 cases reported by individuals to the U.S. Embassy since January 2021.
The Department of State’s current travel advisory level for Tanzania is Level 3 – Reconsider Travel.
The Tanzanian government has not released aggregate numbers on COVID-19 cases or deaths since April 2020.
Healthcare facilities in Tanzania can become quickly overwhelmed in a healthcare crisis. Limited hospital capacity throughout Tanzania could result in life-threatening delays for emergency medical care.

It sounds very scientific Why since January 2021? They stopped testing and the mitigation measures last APRIL so if they had problems we would have seen them already a long time ago. What are the odds this is not the same bogeyman tactic we have seen in the last 12 months?

 

[Ken555]

Covid-19 Crisis Grows in Tanzania as President Rejects Risks

Tanzania’s main hospitals have been swamped by patients displaying coronavirus symptoms, intensive-care units are full and funeral masses have become daily occurrences.

www.bloomberg.com

Tanzania’s main hospitals have been swamped by patients displaying coronavirus symptoms, intensive-care units are full and funeral masses have become daily occurrences.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[DannyTS]

Covid-19 Crisis Grows in Tanzania as President Rejects Risks

Tanzania’s main hospitals have been swamped by patients displaying coronavirus symptoms, intensive-care units are full and funeral masses have become daily occurrences.

www.bloomberg.com

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Typical journalism done from the distance without proof. Why now 12 months after the pandemic started? Funny how as soon as the social media talks about no problems in Tanzania, the mainstream media starts to report sudden increases of cases lol. It is not just Tanzania, most countries in Africa continue the social life more or less unobstructed: Ghana, Nigeria etc. This is an Indian wedding in Kenya.

 

[DannyTS]

Nigerian wedding

 

[Monykalyn]

I assume the responses will be to blame those who contracted the virus. Some how they contracted it even with all the strict lockdowns in place.

It is ALWAYS easier to bash "bad people" than to admit it's bad policy...

a failure in that people have been asked to do things they just can’t do, so then they don’t comply and it’s a failure

I think this kinda sums up the whole thing, and why frustration is growing so fast now. And then the people bashing begins (have seen it MANY times here just on TUG-the "bad" people eating out, the "bad people" wanting schools OPEN as there is now evidence covid IS NOT spread by schools. And not all areas of the country are experiencing the same thing either. Our hospitals-even at their absolute peak-were never "overwhelmed". They used the time of the initial "lockdown" to do what was recommended-ramp up capability. The extra capability did help, but at no time were they ever even full of covid patients. This time of year ALL hospitals usually have some surge capacity being used just due to seasonal nature of respiratory illness, more broken hips from falls, MI's from shoveling snow etc.

We can bash people all we want but you cannot have public policy without taking into account how the public acts

Yeah over the people bashing. Because the FB is representative of the WHOLE area of course!!

I have zero tolerance for anyone who advocates for us to reopen when our hospitals are overflowing

Where are hospitals overflowing? If talking CA-why weren't schools open last spring/early fall when clearly hospitals were ok?

This is what the US Embassy has with regard to Tanzania (updated 2/10/21):

Tanzania's president is a nutcase-however the US EMbassy has been reporting nearly the exact same thing since last June!
Going by countries around Tanzania-seems there was a rise-and wow-same peak within a month of nearly every other country around the world. This is interesting as I just listened to a podcast on this-from a scientist speculating (yes speculation but was hoping as more sequencing done to find more info) that the virus may have built in genetic code that allowed nearly identical variants show up in multi areas around the world at nearly the same time, and that the viral curve is also coded in-IOW-NPI may have an impact on how many cases/deaths but the curve was going to be there no matter what. As for nearly no influenza this year-there is also the theory of "viral dominance"-SARS-Cov 2 is the predominant virus and others fade due to that.

 

[Ken555]

Where are hospitals overflowing? If talking CA-why weren't schools open last spring/early fall when clearly hospitals were ok?

Oh, please. Time to expand your selective reading list.

 

[DannyTS]

Oh, please. Time to expand your selective reading list.

Yes please, you tell us more about that. Weren't the hospitals "on the brink of the collapse" (forgetting of course that in 2017 hospitals in California were setting up tents to treat the flu patients) but just in few weeks the number of new cases is now miraculously down 60%?

 

[Brett]

Yes please, you tell us more about that. Weren't the hospitals "on the brink of the collapse" (forgetting of course that in 2017 hospitals in California were setting up tents to treat the flu patients) but just in few weeks the number of new cases is now miraculously down 60%?

I'm thinking in the US it's not a "miracle" but something something to do with vaccines .....

 

[DannyTS]

I'm thinking in the US it's not a "miracle" but something something to do with vaccines .....


View attachment 32418

I am glad if you are right, it would mean we possibly do not need 85% vaccinations to get to herd immunity as the scientists/politicians said at one point. The problem with your comment though: in Canada the number of new cases is also down 70% and the peak was also around January 6th. We only vaccinated 3% of the population. Coincidence or not, here the hospitals were also on the brink of a collapse, we were told. The second problem with your comment: the number of people vaccinated in the States was not enough to make a dent in the first 2-3 weeks but still the number of cases was going down like a stone.

 

[DannyTS]

@Brett I also find it odd that Canada and many states that are very different (like Georgia, Florida, NY etc) all had their peak at the same time, almost to the day.

 

["Roger"]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/tanzania-coronavirus-magufuli/2021/02/17/896e64cc-7123-11eb-8651-6d3091eac63f_story.html

Tanzania’s president recently rejected any need for coronavirus vaccines, instead promoting herbal cures. He claims the nation of 60 million has been “covid-free” since he presided over three days of national prayer in June.​

​

Mark Mwandosya, a former minister in the president’s ruling party, knows that is not true.​

Over the past month, Mwandosya has turned his social media feeds into a stream of mini-obituaries. Fifteen of his family members and close friends have died. As he rattled off their names, he said he could not prove any of them had coronavirus, because the government has limited testing almost entirely to travelers. But the stories all go the same way.​

Etc. etc.

... and in connection with Danny's photo of Zanzibar apparently indicating how safe it is there...

The facts, however, are beginning to pile up. On Wednesday, Seif Sharif Hamad, 77, the most prominent politician on the island of Zanzibar, was pronounced dead at a hospital a little more than two weeks after his party announced that he, his wife, and several aides had tested positive for coronavirus.​

 

[DannyTS]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/tanzania-coronavirus-magufuli/2021/02/17/896e64cc-7123-11eb-8651-6d3091eac63f_story.html

Tanzania’s president recently rejected any need for coronavirus vaccines, instead promoting herbal cures. He claims the nation of 60 million has been “covid-free” since he presided over three days of national prayer in June.​

​

Mark Mwandosya, a former minister in the president’s ruling party, knows that is not true.​

Over the past month, Mwandosya has turned his social media feeds into a stream of mini-obituaries. Fifteen of his family members and close friends have died. As he rattled off their names, he said he could not prove any of them had coronavirus, because the government has limited testing almost entirely to travelers. But the stories all go the same way.​

Etc. etc.

... and in connection with Danny's photo of Zanzibar apparently indicating how safe it is there...

The facts, however, are beginning to pile up. On Wednesday, Seif Sharif Hamad, 77, the most prominent politician on the island of Zanzibar, was pronounced dead at a hospital a little more than two weeks after his party announced that he, his wife, and several aides had tested positive for coronavirus.​

I trust people more than the politicians, active or retired. If we were to take WP at face value, the problems in Tanzania have started now, 12-15 months after Covid. That does not makes sense, especially when you look at India that had its Covid peak in September and now the cases are down 80%. Of course the experts are speculating that India might have reached herd immunity.

 

[DannyTS]

As I said before, it is not just Tanzania. Africa is literally laughing at what is happening in the West. For different reasons China too and of course China is playing the long game.

 

["Roger"]

I don't know how Danny decided that Africa is literally laughing at the west. The Washington Post article does say that life in Tanzania is going on pretty much as normal. Okay. On the other hand, to take one more quote from the article....

Earlier this week, the health minister of Oman, which shares a long history with Tanzania, announced that 18 percent of travelers from Tanzania had tested positive on arrival in Oman, well above any other country’s figures. On Tuesday, Oman released a new list of countries from which certain passengers were allowed to enter, and Tanzania was not on it. [Bold Face added]​

​

Fortunately, no Tuggers are going to be reading his posts and think to themselves maybe we should go to Tanzania for a nice get away.

​

 

[DannyTS]

I don't know how Danny decided that Africa is literally laughing at the west. The Washington Post article does say that life in Tanzania is going on pretty much as normal. Okay. On the other hand, to take one more quote from the article....

Earlier this week, the health minister of Oman, which shares a long history with Tanzania, announced that 18 percent of travelers from Tanzania had tested positive on arrival in Oman, well above any other country’s figures. On Tuesday, Oman released a new list of countries from which certain passengers were allowed to enter, and Tanzania was not on it. [Bold Face added]​

​

Fortunately, no Tuggers are going to be reading his posts and think to themselves maybe we should go to Tanzania for a nice get away.

​

What is the number of PCR amplifications used to determine the so called positives? If it is like everywhere else 40 times, thank you that is not reliable. If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. I did not start this thread to say that the virus does not exist but to draw attention that its effects may be grossly exaggerated. I do not care what the president of Tanzania states but rather how people live and how they feel. This is Nigeria again

 

[DannyTS]

and this is another one in Nigeria

 

["Roger"]

I'm not sure how a picture of Africans dancing shows that covid testing in Oman was necessarily inaccurate. As far as covid in Africa, I suspect the numbers are not totally huge, but are higher than reported. (There are articles explaining why Africa has not been hit as hard as more northern countries.) Here is an article that was published in the British Medical Journal just yesterday that found that 15% to 20% of the deaths in a hospital in Zambia last summer were traceable to covid.

Impact of COVID-19 in Africa 'vastly underestimated' warn researchers

The impact of COVID-19 in Africa has been vastly underestimated, warn researchers in a study published by The BMJ today.

medicalxpress.com

Anticipating Danny's response, he will want to suggest that this is all due to (not a maybe, but due to) the use of the inaccurate PCR tests, probably using too many repetitions. Here is a USAToday fact checker published a week ago on claims that the use of PCR tests are unreliable.

Fact check: Post distorts WHO's COVID-19 PCR testing guidelines

A Facebook post falsely claims WHO has changed its guidance on PCR testing and that asymptomatic individuals will no longer count as COVID-19 cases.

www.usatoday.com

While the article mentioned a lot of social media claims to that effect, the tests are in fact accurate. If anything, they underestimate the number of false negatives, not false positives. A high number of repetitions does not produce false positives, but is useful in estimating how infectious the disease is. The article does admit that the test procedures need to be strictly adhered to. So I guess the new out is that the lab technicians in Oman and Zambia are necessarily incompetent. Personally, I would find such a claim insulting.

 

[DannyTS]

I'm not sure how a picture of Africans dancing shows that covid testing in Oman was necessarily inaccurate. As far as covid in Africa, I suspect the numbers are not totally huge, but are higher than reported. (There are articles explaining why Africa has not been hit as hard as more northern countries.) Here is an article that was published in the British Medical Journal just yesterday that found that 15% to 20% of the deaths in a hospital in Zambia last summer were traceable to covid.

Impact of COVID-19 in Africa 'vastly underestimated' warn researchers

The impact of COVID-19 in Africa has been vastly underestimated, warn researchers in a study published by The BMJ today.

medicalxpress.com

Anticipating Danny's response, he will want to suggest that this is all due to (not a maybe, but due to) the use of the inaccurate PCR tests, probably using too many repetitions. Here is a USAToday fact checker published a week ago on claims that the use of PCR tests are unreliable.

Fact check: Post distorts WHO's COVID-19 PCR testing guidelines

A Facebook post falsely claims WHO has changed its guidance on PCR testing and that asymptomatic individuals will no longer count as COVID-19 cases.

www.usatoday.com

While the article mentioned a lot of social media claims to that effect, the tests are in fact accurate. If anything, they underestimate the number of false negatives, not false positives. A high number of repetitions does not produce false positives, but is useful in estimating how infectious the disease is. The article does admit that the test procedures need to be strictly adhered to. So I guess the new out is that the lab technicians in Oman and Zambia are necessarily incompetent. Personally, I would find such a claim insulting.

1) 20% of people who died in Zambia "could be traced to Covid" this is exactly the problem with journalism and with the "research" that does not pass the smell test but it is published by medical journals. The article you mention states that "COVID-19 deaths occurred across a wider age spectrum than reported elsewhere and were concentrated among people aged under 65, including an unexpectedly high number of deaths in children." The article completely ignores the fact that we know, most Covid deaths occur in people over 65. The fact that they tested positive only proves that they did not die of Covid, they just tested positive which is exactly the testing/reporting problem we have had in the West. Of course there is no attempt to compare with other hospitals, historical data, just the allegation is enough, at least to some.

From the same article you posted: alcohol misuse - 17% of Covid deaths. How can they say that with a straight face?

2) "Africans dancing" sounds a little bit demeaning although probably not intended. My point in posting all these videos is that life preservation is a basic instinct and I cannot imagine all these communities seeing people dying around them and still continuing to organize weddings, baptisms and parties. People are no stupid and if they see a black mamba they will know to stay away. It is just not creadible after a year of Covid that these communities have been ravaged by Covid and they would not act accordingly.

3) I do not know where your comment about the lab technicians in Oman or Zambia is coming from. Labs all over the world work within the same WHO guidance. The problem I have is not with where the test is coming from but rather the methodology we have used for a year. You state that a high number of amplifications is useful in estimating how infectious a disease is. There are reports that somebody can test positive a very long time after being completely recovered. The problem with your statement is that WHO and the CDC do NOT want you to know the number of amplifications. Why?

4) Here is a good starting point as a prerequisite in talking about PCR tests.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926410/Understanding_Cycle_Threshold__Ct__in_SARS-CoV-2_RT-PCR_.pdf