Don't Travel if you Don't Have To

[geekette]

Great points, Matt. Time is going by in a strange fashion, it was so long ago that companies stopped optional travel, conferences cancelled, etc.

I think that for me, it's not just the plane, it's the airport. It would be impossible to not breathe in something I wish I would not have. Getting on a plane to leave is one thing, but if I am suddenly sick on Day 2, away from home, well, that's not a situation I want to put myself in, and I still have to get home, possibly miserably sick and denied passage.

 

[geekette]

enforce locking up people over 65 !!
What happens if those "old" people need to go to work ? ....

storm the gate.

so far as I know, it is "guidance". I trust someone to know what is best for them. Home workers are already in, so those that can't work from home have less other people in their midst. If you have to work, and you deem yourself healthy and likely able to survive this illness, I think it is a reasonable decision. Make the best decision for you and yours, but still, don't go if you don't have to.

I don't personally find 65 to be "old", but, in truth, I have known some "well-preserved" 65ers and some "grizzled" 65ers.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

California governor tells people over 65 to stay at home. https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241212146.html Right now it's just a recommendation, but he said they'll enforce it if need be.

In the CDC press conference that occurred today, they were talking about the two priority high risk groups. First was medical staff and first responders. We can't afford to have those people going down. The second group identified was the elderly high risk group, which was defined to be:

1. 65 or over
2. with respiratory condition
3. and temperature over 99.5.

I meet critierion 1. Up to a couple of days ago, I met condition 2, ever since we returned from a trip to Mexico in mid-Feb where both DW and I picked up a Mexican bug. Re condition three, for the last couple of weeks my temp has been varying between about 97.7 and 98.4 (my normal range). I've been in regular contact with my medical provider during this time frame, providing symptoms and getting advice. A couple of days ago suddenly my temperature started climbing, going from just above normal in the morning, to over 99 by mid-afternoon. I also started feeling a bit feverish By 9 pm that evening, my temperature had dropped back to 98.4, I was feeling wonderful, and my cough had disappeared. I was in regular messaging contact with my health care provider during this time.

Frankly, I'm trying to give them an excuse to ask me to come in for a test, because I would like some assurance, but I haven't been sick enough for them to say that I need to get tested. I don't know if should be disappointed or elated.

 

[CaliSunshine]

enforce locking up people over 65 !!
What happens if those "old" people need to go to work ? ....

Employers should let older workers take sick leave or family medical leave, during this time. In your 60s, mortality is around 4% if you get the virus. In your 70s, it goes up to 8%. That's not an acceptable risk for anyone.

 

[LannyPC]

"We want this thing to end. We don't want a lot of people getting infected.''

Uh, yeah. Who doesn't?

 

[bluehende]

I would absolutely ditch the job to save my life. I am Hard No on mass transit of any kind. I can replace the job later, I cannot replace myself.

It has been many decades since I ever felt "Had To" applied to the job. I have on occasion kept my integrity and left the job without another. I can, will, and have Said NO plenty of times. And this is so much more than taking a stand on morals, it's a life and death situation. And not just for you, but for everyone you go home to or visit.

Nobody gets to risk my life for their profit. Nobody.

I just had a conversation with my son. He is in the hardest hit area of PA and is nervous. His company has said no to working at home even though as an engineer he has access to everything at home and it would make no difference. His company has said no but a group including his boss has decided to work from home and if they are fired so be it. This has destroyed morale at the workplace as it looks very callous. It is nice to have a marketable skill with headhunters calling constantly.

 

[CaliSunshine]

In the CDC press conference that occurred today, they were talking about the two priority high risk groups. First was medical staff and first responders. We can't afford to have those people going down. The second group identified was the elderly high risk group, which was defined to be:

1. 65 or over
2. with respiratory condition
3. and temperature over 99.5.

I meet critierion 1. Up to a couple of days ago, I met condition 2, ever since we returned from a trip to Mexico in mid-Feb where both DW and I picked up a Mexican bug. Re condition three, for the last couple of weeks my temp has been varying between about 97.7 and 98.4 (my normal range). I've been in regular contact with my medical provider during this time frame, providing symptoms and getting advice. A couple of days ago suddenly my temperature started climbing, going from just above normal in the morning, to over 99 by mid-afternoon. I also started feeling a bit feverish By 9 pm that evening, my temperature had dropped back to 98.4, I was feeling wonderful, and my cough had disappeared. I was in regular messaging contact with my health care provider during this time.

Frankly, I'm trying to give them an excuse to ask me to come in for a test, because I would like some assurance, but I haven't been sick enough for them to say that I need to get tested. I don't know if should be disappointed or elated.

Yes, that's a big part of the problem. There aren't enough tests. There isn't enough testing capacity. Only the very ill and the rich and famous are getting tested. Even if you're pretty ill, they'll first test you for other things to rule them out before testing you for coronavirus.

 

[Maple_Leaf]

I just had a conversation with my son. He is in the hardest hit area of PA and is nervous. His company has said no to working at home even though as an engineer he has access to everything at home and it would make no difference. His company has said no but a group including his boss has decided to work from home and if they are fired so be it. This has destroyed morale at the workplace as it looks very callous. It is nice to have a marketable skill with headhunters calling constantly.

Sounds like your son and his co-workers should consider a new employer.

 

[geekette]

I just had a conversation with my son. He is in the hardest hit area of PA and is nervous. His company has said no to working at home even though as an engineer he has access to everything at home and it would make no difference. His company has said no but a group including his boss has decided to work from home and if they are fired so be it. This has destroyed morale at the workplace as it looks very callous. It is nice to have a marketable skill with headhunters calling constantly.

I am happy to know that others have joined the stand. Makes it far easier and will hopefully awaken corporate.

Geekette seal of approval for the protesters. They may be saving people by doing this.

 

[rapmarks]

We would like to fly north to Wisconsin by mid May. Don’t know if things will be better or worse by then.
we own a week at little Sweden that starts last weekend in May. Don’t know if I should deposit in rci, which won’t give me fair value. Funny thing is when we are there, we never see anyone else

 

[SteelerGal]

I am remote the next 2wks and homeschooling our 5 as well. Our company decided on Friday to offer remote since it was happening at other local companies, schools are closing, and concerns were ever increasing.(Btw, there was at least 1 unsubstantiated case on our campus).

 

[CaliSunshine]

SF Bay Area is putting in a shelter in place order, meaning no going out except if it's absolutely necessary. https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php Wouldn't be surprised to see this being extended to other areas or even country wide in a week.

 

[pedro47]

SF Bay Area is putting in a shelter in place order, meaning no going out except if it's absolutely necessary. https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php Wouldn't be surprised to see this being extended to other areas or even country wide in a week.

This is a Plan and an Excellent Plan with an Objective, a Mission and an Out Come Objective. This should be a National Federal Plan and should have started many weeks ago. IMHO.

 

[pedro47]

Someone, in Washington, DC needs to make a decision about this Coronavirus for all the people of the United States of America. IMHO.

 

[Brett]

Someone, in Washington, DC needs to make a decision about this Coronavirus for all the people of the United States of America. IMHO.

OK - so what would be the best and GREAT decision for all the people ?
.
.
..... please don't say everyone in the United States of America should self-quarantine for the next three months (IMHO)

 

[caribbeanqueen]

I am at the airport now waiting to fly home to hell. I went to Disney before things hit the shitter.
I fly down to Florida frequently to check on/take care of my two elderly parents, one with Alzheimers in the nursing home. I stayed to cook my father enough meals to last him 3 weeks.
I would be pretty upset if someone decided my time here was "not worth it" or careless.

Life happens. I do not think it is anyone's right to judge anyone else on their reasons for flying. My flight has very few people. Also I am not afraid of contracting the virus on the plane. I am more afraid of getting it back home.
20 people infected, 19 at home. Only 1 hospitalized.
Some say a job is not worth it. Tell that to a father who is the sole provider with children.
Of course everyone should stay home but not everyone can. It isnt black and white. Unless congress agrees to pay everyone to stay home it isnt so easy.
Many self employed will be devastated by this.
BTW that couple who flew knowingly infected should be banned from flying for life. Horrible.

 

[JanT]

I don't know that it's a "must." But, she's counting on you. However, with that said, you can't put yourself at risk either and hopefully she has a backup plan in case you can't get there.

"If you don't have to" -- how is that measured?
I made a commitment to care for my grand-daughter's two large dogs while she goes to Hawaii. Assuming she is able to travel, would my commitment to help her be a "have to" situation? I'm not unwilling, just wondering.

 

[CaliSunshine]

OK - so what would be the best and GREAT decision for all the people ?
.
.
..... please don't say everyone in the United States of America should self-quarantine for the next three months (IMHO)

If it were up to me, I would quarantine everyone in their homes for 3-4 weeks starting today. In those 3-4 weeks I would furiously test people and get test kits ready. Then, hopefully, by the end of the 3-4 weeks, most people who need to be tested will be able to get tested. For some counties and states it might be everyone in the county or state, pretty much. For some states, we can rely on contact tracing. Also quarantine everyone who's coming from abroad for 2 weeks.

If you do the quarantine early, then it can be done and over with in a relatively short amount of time. If you wait, then the numbers grow. Italy may need to quarantine for 2 or 3 months now, just because they didn't bother to do it earlier.

China dilly dallied so they had to quarantine for a little longer, maybe a month and a half, but now they're mostly done (they'll still have to quarantine visitors for 2 weeks indefinitely while the rest of us go through this). The only Apple stores still open in the world are the ones in China.

 

[geekette]

....For some states, we can rely on contact tracing.

I think we are way too late for this. People have mingled with people and then other people for weeks. It's not so easy now to know if it was someone at work, at the grocery, at the gym, at the restaurant, gas pump handle, a cough in the elevator, ... there are very few of us that have gone very few places and interacted with very few people.

 

[dioxide45]

If you're over 50 and thinking about getting on a plane, my definition of "if you don't have to" is "I will lose my job or my health if I don't get on this plane." Anything less, to be honest, I wouldn't go.

Actual, not confirmed, coronavirus cases double every 6 days. Latest estimate out of Johns Hopkins is 50K people in the US already have it. https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...tes-at-least-50000-people-have-coronavirus-in In 6 days that will 100K. In another 6 days that will be 200K. So basically in two weeks, 1 out of every thousand Americans will have Coronavirus. 1 out of a thousand is not good odds when you're on a 300 person plane.

So if you're planning on flying in 2 weeks, Don't. If you're 50 or over, Don't. If you're flying for any reason other than your job or your health, don't.

Note that the 50K is this doctor's LOW estimate. The HIGH estimate is half a million. If you like numbers, here are some more for you: https://qventus.com/blog/predicting-the-effects-of-the-covid-pandemic-on-us-health-system-capacity/

In 4 weeks we will start running out of hospital beds in this country. In 8 weeks we will run out of hospital beds in every single state in this country (some states will technically be under 100% utilization, but 90% utilization your state doesn't mean you will find a bed in your city; it might be several hours away).

That means if you get sick in a month or two, you are not guaranteed a hospital bed, you are not guaranteed a ventilator. We see this right now in Italy: old people who are on the cusp of death are not being treated because the doctors need to decide which of three patients to give the bed and ventilator to and they decide that it's better to give it to the young and healthier person because they have a higher chance of surviving and more years to live.

I actually think these "assumed" cases to a degree are fear mongering. It is of course possible since they are currently only counting those that have been tested and they would have had to have met certain criteria to be tested (more severe cases). However, it would also mean with the current 3,500 confirmed US cases that there are 46,500 cases with somewhat mild to moderate symptoms that didn't necesitate a test at all.

 

[CaliSunshine]

I actually think these "assumed" cases to a degree are fear mongering. It is of course possible since they are currently only counting those that have been tested and they would have had to have met certain criteria to be tested (more severe cases). However, it would also mean with the current 3,500 confirmed US cases that there are 46,500 cases with somewhat mild to moderate symptoms that didn't necesitate a test at all.

All of the reported cases are confirmed cases and "presumed positive" cases. Confirmed cases and "presumed positive" today for the US are at 4,661. Worse, a lot of news reports are still going with the CDC number of 3500 even though the CDC specifically states that's only cases where they've done the testing. Pretty much every epidemiologist believes that the true number of cases is a high multiple of the number of confirmed cases.

The JHU's doctor's estimate was somewhere around 15x-150x.
The Cedar Sinai team's research estimate was somewhere between 10x-100x.
The lowest I've seen is a Columbia estimate which is 6x-11x

I really hope the answer is actually less than 10x. If it's less than 10x, that means we still have a chance of containing the virus, if we do wide scale quarantine some time this week.

 

[IngridN]

California governor tells people over 65 to stay at home. https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241212146.html Right now it's just a recommendation, but he said they'll enforce it if need be.

It's now mandatory in my county! As of midnight tonight. All people, not just over 65. Everything is shutting down. Got 2 emails today from my favorite nursery. The first, this afternoon stating all they're doing and reminding people to do as they're out and about and another one referencing the order to shelter in place and stating they are closing starting tomorrow.

 

[geekette]

I actually think these "assumed" cases to a degree are fear mongering. It is of course possible since they are currently only counting those that have been tested and they would have had to have met certain criteria to be tested (more severe cases). However, it would also mean with the current 3,500 confirmed US cases that there are 46,500 cases with somewhat mild to moderate symptoms that didn't necesitate a test at all.

mmmm, maybe.

getting a test remains difficult, there are nurses benched. There are people that have no known contact with someone testing positive and no out of country travel, so no test for them. I am not sure that non-test means less severe case, only that they did not meet these 2 pieces of criteria.

 

[TravelTime]

All of the reported cases are confirmed cases and "presumed positive" cases. Confirmed cases and "presumed positive" today for the US are at 4,661. Worse, a lot of news reports are still going with the CDC number of 3500 even though the CDC specifically states that's only cases where they've done the testing. Pretty much every epidemiologist believes that the true number of cases is a high multiple of the number of confirmed cases.

The JHU's doctor's estimate was somewhere around 15x-150x.
The Cedar Sinai team's research estimate was somewhere between 10x-100x.
The lowest I've seen is a Columbia estimate which is 6x-11x

I really hope the answer is actually less than 10x. If it's less than 10x, that means we still have a chance of containing the virus, if we do wide scale quarantine some time this week.

So if the real number of cases is somewhere between 6x and 150x, wouldn't that be good news? It might mean this virus is not as deadly as the current estimates.

 

[CaliSunshine]

So if the real number of cases is somewhere between 6x and 150x, wouldn't that be good news? It might mean this virus is not as deadly as the current estimates.

Death happens even slower than testing. I personally estimate that the death rate will be something like 0.5-1.5%. South Korea has done the most extensive testing, and they currently have a death rate of around 1%, but of course even they can't guarantee they've found every single person with Coronavirus (and some of the people they found may still die).

The problem is that if we don't do quarantines, we will end up in a situation where we depend on herd immunity to stop the virus. Herd immunity starts happening somewhere at 40%-60% infections. US population is 327 million, so let's say 40% is 130 million people and 60% is 195 million. That's a lot of people to infect and a lot of people to die.