# With the stock market plunging. . .



## Passepartout (Mar 9, 2020)

My annuities sure look good.  They make a great hedge, and stability. Right now with the all-around instability and uncertainty of the future, I'm glad I have 'em. Sure, it's not the majority part of my holding, there's stocks, International, bonds, some gold and some real estate, but those checks that jut keep on coming every month are sure nice.


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## Talent312 (Mar 9, 2020)

There's a whole 'nother thread dealing with market volatility anxiety.
As you say, those of us with pensions (type of annuity), have it made in the shade.
Even though our nest eggs may drop a ton, I don't need it before the come-back.
.


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## dioxide45 (Mar 9, 2020)

For those that sail Carnival brands (they have other brands other than Carnival ships for those Carnival haters out there), it is a good time to buy their stock for the $100 OBC shareholder deal.


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## klpca (Mar 9, 2020)

We did our own hedge awhile ago and moved some of our investments into rental property. None of them declined in value this week.



dioxide45 said:


> For those that sail Carnival brands (they have other brands other than Carnival ships for those Carnival haters out there), it is a good time to buy their stock for the $100 OBC shareholder deal.



Do you know if Carnival is the only brand that offers OBC?


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## dioxide45 (Mar 9, 2020)

klpca said:


> We did our own hedge awhile ago and moved some of our investments into rental property. None of them declined in value this week.
> 
> 
> 
> Do you know if Carnival is the only brand that offers OBC?


It seems that they do;









						Cruise Line Stock Perks and Shareholder Benefits
					

It is refreshing that the cruise industry continues to maintain investor benefits in the form of onboard credit. We've got the rundown of the benefits offered per cruise line, how to get the stocks, plus how and when to snag the credit.




					www.cruisecritic.com


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## klpca (Mar 9, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> It seems that they do;
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks!


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## VacationForever (Mar 10, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> My annuities sure look good.  They make a great hedge, and stability. Right now with the all-around instability and uncertainty of the future, I'm glad I have 'em. Sure, it's not the majority part of my holding, there's stocks, International, bonds, some gold and some real estate, but those checks that jut keep on coming every month are sure nice.


Amen.  Moved all of my IRA into deferred fixed income annuity 4 years ago and they will start paying in another 3 years.  We are still subject to my husband's RMD, but we can deal with that fluctuation.


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## Panina (Mar 10, 2020)

I always said leave in the stock market what you can afford to live without.   

I remember when growing up, savings accounts had high interest and many seniors lived off that interest.  As interest rates went down so did their income.  I learned from that.


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## davidvel (Mar 10, 2020)

N


Passepartout said:


> My annuities sure look good.  They make a great hedge, and stability. Right now with the all-around instability and uncertainty of the future, I'm glad I have 'em. Sure, it's not the majority part of my holding, there's stocks, International, bonds, some gold and some real estate, but those checks that jut keep on coming every month are sure nice.


You don't mention when you bought them or what  your earnings are. Our stock portfolio, even with the recent slide, is up over 50% in the last 5 years. Once the market recovers for this recent correction, I'm hopeful we'll be up even more.


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## pedro47 (Mar 10, 2020)

klpca said:


> We did our own hedge awhile ago and moved some of our investments into rental property. None of them declined in value this week.
> 
> 
> 
> Do you know if Carnival is the only brand that offers OBC?


Royal Caribbean Cruise  (Royal Carribean, Celebrity, Azmara) offer OBC to stock holders


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## Passepartout (Mar 10, 2020)

davidvel said:


> You don't mention when you bought them or what  your earnings are. Our stock portfolio, even with the recent slide, is up over 50% in the last 5 years. Once the market recovers for this recent correction, I'm hopeful we'll be up even more.


I bought a couple of immediate annuities back in 2006ish. They locked in at 7% payout until I'm 98. I get about $1100/mo. So far I live on that and SS. Like you, my market holdings have grown nicely for 8+ years and now I'm faced with RMD's. The market is doing it's gyrations, and it has zero effect on my lifestyle or sleep.


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## geekette (Mar 10, 2020)

dividends keep getting paid, another raise announced.   Far to go to see much red in my portfolio,  I had a few that were red before all this started.   I continue to reinvest dividends.   I can be happy in any kind of market, but scooping low now can make a powerful difference down the road.   I own a lot of companies and I don't expect to lose any dividends nor companies, but I could. 

The key for me is to not be reliant on any one company or sector.  I own across the basic material, manufacturing, distribution, product, and point of sale for some industries (food, I own the whole way on food, but I don't have any restaurants so I won't be hammered by people not eating out, and buoyed by people buying groceries and thank you Costco shoppers).  Big ole conglomerates like MMM aren't likely to be impaired severely long term.

I like to think of it as trading one paycheck from one company for multiple paychecks from multiple companies.  I live in an at will state so my jobs have always been subject to whims of office axe.  It's not so different, just more eggs in more baskets.


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## bogey21 (Mar 10, 2020)

The best financial move I ever made was when I retired 20 years ago.  I passed up a large lump sum and opted for the annuity with a cumulative 3% annual cost of living kicker.  The peace of mind it brought me has been a big time plus...

George


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## dagger1 (Mar 10, 2020)

People are now seeing first hand the value of having annuities (or a pension) as one leg of a “four legged” retirement stool (the other three, for me, being Social Security; Stocks/Bonds (dividends/interest);  and a good single malt Scotch.


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## VacationForever (Mar 10, 2020)

For us annuities is one of 5 legs.  2 Social Security, 1 RMD (managed accounts), 1 annuity and the last one is managed taxable accounts of stocks/bonds/etc which will go to the estate.  We only need the first 4 to live on.


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## AJCts411 (Mar 10, 2020)

Always best to buy at the bottom of a cycle, as they say...but not sure this is the bottom yet.   I rolled the dice (only 5K ), looking for a 16% return in 10-12 months.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 10, 2020)

AJCts411 said:


> Always best to buy at the bottom of a cycle, as they say...but not sure this is the bottom yet. I rolled the dice (only 5K ), looking for a 16% return in 10-12 months.



My FA did a bunch of puts in early February which have proven to be a god send. He said he saw “cracks” in the economy and wanted to hedge. Now, he is starting to think on buying calls.

Boy, finding a great FA is like finding a gold mine.

So far, I have only lost 1.3 percent of my net worth. Lucky, as I think we are at 20 percent from the highs.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 10, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> For us annuities is one of 5 legs. 2 Social Security, 1 RMD (managed accounts), 1 annuity and the last one is managed taxable accounts of stocks/bonds/etc which will go to the estate. We only need the first 4 to live on.



Curious. Do you know the average Social Security monthly payment? I hear it’s higher than Canada.

In Canada, the CPP is about 1 k a month depending on how many years you contributed and whether you made over 50 k a year to max out the payment.

We do have guaranteed income supplement but you have to be under the low income cutoff to get that. Plus, there is Old Age Security. The maximum if you are under the low income cutoff is about 2 k a month. 


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## VacationForever (Mar 10, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Curious. Do you know the average Social Security monthly payment? I hear it’s higher than Canada.
> 
> In Canada, the CPP is about 1 k a month depending on how many years you contributed and whether you made over 50 k a year to max out the payment.
> 
> ...


In the US it varies with how much you have earned / contributed and it takes the highest 35 years of contributions.

Social Security pays out an average of about $1450 per month.  Someone who has contributed the maximum for 35 years and delay collecting until 70 years old will get about $3700 per month.  If someone contributed very little it can be something like $700 per month.  I think if one is poor, there are other sources of help available - food stamps, low income housing etc, but it is a struggle for them.


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## isisdave (Mar 10, 2020)

A Canadian will soon amplify here, but there is CPP (like an IRA; you have to contribute) and also OAS (like our SS except entirely funded by taxes). The latter is currently CDN613 per month if you lived 40 years in Canada. And of course, medical care is free.


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## Brett (Mar 10, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> My annuities sure look good.  They make a great hedge, and stability. Right now with the all-around instability and uncertainty of the future, I'm glad I have 'em. Sure, it's not the majority part of my holding, there's stocks, International, bonds, some gold and some real estate, but those checks that jut keep on coming every month are sure nice.



yes, people with good pensions don't worry much about the stock market. 
And those with pensions and stock investments held over 30 years have done especially well.  My 99 year old mother is an example - she has good pensions that cover her living expenses and she is sitting on a $2.5 million stock portfolio even after the recent "correction".  My parents never saved anything during their working lives!


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## easyrider (Mar 10, 2020)

My wife signed up for SS at 62. Her first check was deposited into our bank account last January. We were in Mexico and we do check our accounts occasionally on trips but not usually. We used the atm at a grocery store so we could buy some art. Since using the atm at a grocery store isn't our norm we check the account and couldn't figure out why we had more funds that we thought. We finally figured it out. It was that first ss check. 

We got out of mutual funds in 2009 and I only trade occasionally. I learned that I don't like day trading, lol. 

We did add more rental units. The real estate j curve hit shortly after we bought and the values of all the real estate went up. Real estate sales were hot in the last few years. Rents also increased but so did taxes and insurance. Hard to say what will happen next with real estate but one certainty is there isn't any more in the city. What is there is there.   

Bill


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## WinniWoman (Mar 10, 2020)

For us at this point I am glad we did not get around to investing hubby's lump sum pension, which is currently sitting in a Treasury Money Market Fund in a rollover IRA brokerage sweep account,  or do a 401K rollover, as that is in a Stable Value Fund with just a little exposure to company stock.

Not collecting SS either, so what makes me the most nervous is - yes, the accounts that have gone down that are in stock mutual funds- though just around 35%- and of course, the cash we keep withdrawing to live on and to fix up the house. 

Not having a regular paycheck coming in does feel very unsettling.


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## bogey21 (Mar 10, 2020)

Be thankful.  You are in better shape than many....

George


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## Talent312 (Mar 10, 2020)

_I look at this way:_
The market is increasing my ratio of bonds to stock.
Something, I've been wanting to do, just not this way.

I think we're about half-way through this roller-coaster.
And the 360 deg. inversion is coming up.
.
.


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## Icc5 (Mar 10, 2020)

Both my wife and I have pensions from being Retail Clerks in the groceries business with 42 and 43 years in.  We've always saved,with 401k's and Roth's.  I had several stocks before we got married and most are dividend payers.  The stock portfolio is a decent amount.  Recently I inherited some money and decided to put it in bonds that are both state and federal tax exempt and I draw SS from retiring 7 years ago at 62.
Yes, luck has played a part as our pensions are much better then what people earn now.  We did give up higher wages for years so more money went into the pension plan.  Some of my stocks turned out way better then I could have ever dreamed.  Because of the above we've been able to do whatever we want plus help our kids.  It also helped that we paid off our house about 20 years ago.
We feel blessed and lucky we each bought our first houses right after college before Silicon Valley became what it is today.  Hard savings and lots of overtime even while going to college full time has made a huge difference for today.  I gave up my time and freedom then to have a better life today.
Don't so much feel it's bragging but I am proud of what we have accomplished.  I only hope my kids realize the sacrifices to make life better for them too.
Bart


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## CO skier (Mar 11, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> I think we're about half-way through this roller-coaster.


Do you mean time-wise?  No way will this market be setting new highs within the next few months.

Or do you mean percentage-wise?  Then why hang on for the next 20% loss?


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## cgeidl (Mar 11, 2020)

klpca said:


> We did our own hedge awhile ago and moved some of our investments into rental property. None of them declined in value this week.
> 
> 
> 
> Do you know if Carnival is the only brand that offers OBC?


We also own rental property and it is effected by a dropping stock market as some buyers may have lost their down payment for purchasing a home.


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## klpca (Mar 11, 2020)

cgeidl said:


> We also own rental property and it is effected by a dropping stock market as some buyers may have lost their down payment for purchasing a home.


Sure there could be a short term cash flow issue for a buyer that could bust up a sale, or a long term loss of value if the whole economy tanks, but the day to day volatility just isn't there. At any rate the rentals are a buy and hold for us and we are comfortable and familiar with the general location so it's a nice hedge.


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## Talent312 (Mar 11, 2020)

CO skier said:


> [About being 'half-way thru the roller-coaster]...
> Do you mean time-wise?  No way will this market be setting new highs within the next few months.
> Or do you mean percentage-wise?  Then why hang on for the next 20% loss?



I mean volatility-wise... I think things will return to normal ups+downs in about two weeks.
Drop a stone in a pond and the waves emanating are largest at the center, less so on shore.
That is, absent more high winds...  _which I 'spose is possible_. For now, I'm along for the ride.

.


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## dagger1 (Mar 11, 2020)

cgeidl said:


> We also own rental property and it is effected by a dropping stock market as some buyers may have lost their down payment for purchasing a home.


And may lose their jobs as well....


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## dagger1 (Mar 11, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> My annuities sure look good.  They make a great hedge, and stability. Right now with the all-around instability and uncertainty of the future, I'm glad I have 'em. Sure, it's not the majority part of my holding, there's stocks, International, bonds, some gold and some real estate, but those checks that jut keep on coming every month are sure nice.


This market correction is making Kenneth Fisher (Fisher Investments), a major Annuity detractor look really bad right now.  Folks with annuities (and/or pensions) plus Social Security are sleeping much better than those who rely on dividends/interest/stock sales to supplement their Social Security.


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## geekette (Mar 11, 2020)

Icc5 said:


> Both my wife and I have pensions from being Retail Clerks in the groceries business with 42 and 43 years in.  ...


I was apparently early in the generation that didn't have much chance of complete career in one place.  My dad did over 40 years all for one mega corp, wondered what was wrong with me early on.  Well done!   I am glad that you had a long run in a good place that is looking after your old age.   I wish this anecdote weren't so rare.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 11, 2020)

geekette said:


> I was apparently early in the generation that didn't have much chance of complete career in one place. My dad did over 40 years all for one mega corp, wondered what was wrong with me early on. Well done! I am glad that you had a long run in a good place that is looking after your old age. I wish this anecdote weren't so rare.



WYND down to 28 and change. Just bought some more up. They are caught in the travel downturn. However, what WYND has is locked in, paying owners who have to travel and spend if they don’t want to let their points or benefits evaporate. Plus, RCI is raking it in with higher fees.

Hmmm. I wonder if MFs are going up to offshoot the reduced rental revenues?

If we go much lower, we will be in a bear market. That’s the time I will sock in all excess cash. My FA did puts in early February so my losses are just 4.6 percent so far.


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## DancingWaters (Mar 11, 2020)

Passpartout,
May I ask how much money you had to invest to receive that much money every month?  Also, who did,you get your annunity with?   Unfortunately, I left my pension in the stock market because it I drew it I wouldn’t get much of my SS which I haven’t started drawing yet.   I was letting it grow and wanted to start an annuity outside my pension so it didn’t affect my SS.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 11, 2020)

dagger1 said:


> This market correction is making Kenneth Fisher (Fisher Investments), a major Annuity detractor look really bad right now. Folks with annuities (and/or pensions) plus Social Security are sleeping much better than those who rely on dividends/interest/stock sales to supplement their Social Security.



That’s why it’s good to have excess cash when markets are stable. That way, you can ride it out. Usually, the worst bear markets in history (except the depression) last 2 years max. Then you make it all back plus some if you are indexing.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 11, 2020)

cgeidl said:


> We also own rental property and it is effected by a dropping stock market as some buyers may have lost their down payment for purchasing a home.



Property values will be an interesting question. Although, mortgage rates are low and might get lower, the unemployment rate could climb (although right now unemployment is at record lows). This means possibly fewer folks able to buy and as a result, house prices drop.

Not sure how this will go. Could be either way.


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## klpca (Mar 11, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Property values will be an interesting question. Although, mortgage rates are low and might get lower, the unemployment rate could climb (although right now unemployment is at record lows). This means possibly fewer folks able to buy and as a result, house prices drop.
> 
> Not sure how this will go. Could be either way.
> 
> ...


Which is why there is nothing more important than knowing and understanding your market. Not all markets are created equal.


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## Passepartout (Mar 11, 2020)

DancingWaters said:


> Passpartout,
> May I ask how much money you had to invest to receive that much money every month?  Also, who did,you get your annunity with?


It doesn't matter what I bought in with (you can extrapolate if you care to), Such payouts are no longer available. Suffice it to say it was money I didn't have other plans for or needs of at the time. I simply got lucky with the timing. It was through Prudential, and the product was called 'Highest Daily Income 7' as I recall. It was sold through a broker (financial advisor) who I suppose made a few shekels on the sale and maybe annually, though I don't know. I don't begrudge his working on a commission.  I suppose that had I invested the same amounts into the 'right' mutual funds, or individual shares, I might have done better, but wouldn't be sleeping nearly as well with the roller-coaster ride the market is going through now.


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## VacationForever (Mar 11, 2020)

DancingWaters said:


> Passpartout,
> May I ask how much money you had to invest to receive that much money every month?  Also, who did,you get your annunity with?   Unfortunately, I left my pension in the stock market because it I drew it I wouldn’t get much of my SS which I haven’t started drawing yet.   I was letting it grow and wanted to start an annuity outside my pension so it didn’t affect my SS.


Since interest rates have been very low, it has not been a good time to buy immediate annuities, i.e. payout immediately.  You ought to look at deferred fixed income annuities, where it pays alot more due to the insurer having time to grow the investments and gains in mortality credits.  Mortality credits is like good old tontine.  The last person standing gets all the money when the rest die. Also the nature of fixed income annuities is that there is no backend commission paid each year out of the investment.  The broker gets an initial 7% upon sale of fixed income annuity, which comes out of the investment, something which you don't see from the quotes.  You don't pay it but the insurer pays the broker.

I have 2 term deferred fixed income annuities.  One pays $2820 per month when I turn 60 and the other pays $3800 per month when I turn 70, running on until I am 85.  I don't worry about what happens at 85, I have other money to live on.  Also, if I die, my beneficiaries continue to get the payment for the rest of the 25 years.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 11, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Since interest rates have been very low, it has not been a good time to buy immediate annuities, i.e. payout immediately. You ought to look at deferred fixed income annuities, where it pays alot more due to the insurer having time to grow the investments and gains in mortality credits. Mortality credits is like good old tontine. The last person standing gets all the money when the rest die. Also the nature of fixed income annuities is that there is no backend commission paid each year out of the investment. The broker gets an initial 7% upon sale of fixed income annuity, which comes out of the investment, something which you don't see from the quotes. You don't pay it but the insurer pays the broker.
> 
> I have 2 term deferred fixed income annuities. One pays $2820 per month when I turn 60 and the other pays $3800 per month when I turn 70, running on until I am 85. I don't worry about what happens at 85, I have other money to live on. Also, if I die, my beneficiaries continue to get the payment for the rest of the 25 years.



I am up for adoption. 


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## geekette (Mar 11, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Since interest rates have been very low, it has not been a good time to buy immediate annuities, i.e. payout immediately.  You ought to look at deferred fixed income annuities, where it pays alot more due to the insurer having time to grow the investments and gains in mortality credits.  Mortality credits is like good old tontine.  The last person standing gets all the money when the rest die. Also the nature of fixed income annuities is that there is no backend commission paid each year out of the investment.  The broker gets an initial 7% upon sale of fixed income annuity, which comes out of the investment, something which you don't see from the quotes.  You don't pay it but the insurer pays the broker.
> 
> I have 2 term deferred fixed income annuities.  One pays $2820 per month when I turn 60 and the other pays $3800 per month when I turn 70, running on until I am 85.  I don't worry about what happens at 85, I have other money to live on.  Also, if I die, my beneficiaries continue to get the payment for the rest of the 25 years.


I like the stagger start, and knowing at 85 you are still financially sound, and that none of it is "lost money" if you don't make length of payout.   Nice planning!


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## VacationForever (Mar 11, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I am up for adoption.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I am up for adoption too - eyeing that CND 8.9M!


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 11, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I am up for adoption too - eyeing that CND 8.9M!



8.35 after today....that’s ok. In for long haul.

I remember in 2008 and 2009, I was scraping to load up and boy did that pay off. This one is different. Unlike 2008 where there was fraud and mismanagement leading to the downturn, this one is virus related but the banking system is solid. Here’s a violatity sheet. Over the long haul in scenarios like we have now, things get stronger in the end (within a year or 2 at most).




View attachment market-volatility-sheet.pdf


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## Panina (Mar 11, 2020)

dagger1 said:


> This market correction is making Kenneth Fisher (Fisher Investments), a major Annuity detractor look really bad right now.  Folks with annuities (and/or pensions) plus Social Security are sleeping much better than those who rely on dividends/interest/stock sales to supplement their Social Security.


This isn’t a market correction due to normal conditions.  This is because of a pandemic virus and fear that industries  will not meet numbers because of lost business which just funnels down to the economy.

Unlike past market corrections that took a long time to go back up imo once everything goes back to normal, virus risk decreases and businesses get back to normal it will go back up.


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## dagger1 (Mar 11, 2020)

Panina said:


> This isn’t a market correction due to normal conditions.  This is because of a pandemic virus and fear that industries  will not meet numbers because of lost business which just funnels down to the economy.
> 
> Unlike past market corrections that took a long time to go back up imo once everything goes back to normal, virus risk decreases and businesses get back to normal it will go back up.


I think you are right.  At least I hope so.  The point is that for those with SS plus pensions (annuities), they get “paychecks” every month.  They sleep easier because they are not relying on stock dividends/sales to supplement their SS.  They can wait months/years for the market to recover (which it will).  If corporations continue to pay dividends, even better, they can just continue to reinvest these dividends at extremely low stock prices.


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## dagger1 (Mar 11, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> That’s why it’s good to have excess cash when markets are stable. That way, you can ride it out. Usually, the worst bear markets in history (except the depression) last 2 years max. Then you make it all back plus some if you are indexing.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Having cash on hand is definitely always a good idea.  Annuities supplement Social Security (so this cash can be invested at near market lows) and you can enjoy long bear markets without being forced to liquidate positions (at market lows) for living expenses.  I would never advocate annuities as a great investment strategy anymore than I would advocate Social Security as an investment strategy.  But they provide great retirement security.


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## Panina (Mar 11, 2020)

dagger1 said:


> I think you are right.  At least I hope so.  The point is that for those with SS plus pensions (annuities), they get “paychecks” every month.  They sleep easier because they are not relying on stock dividends/sales to supplement their SS.  They can wait months/years for the market to recover (which it will).  If corporations continue to pay dividends, even better, they can just continue to reinvest these dividends at extremely low stock prices.


Finance 101 is don’t keep your money invested in one type of investment.  Unfortunately many do not pay attention to that.  As you get closer to retirement or if retired most of your savings should not be in the stock markets imo.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 11, 2020)

Panina said:


> Finance 101 is don’t keep your money invested in one type of investment. Unfortunately many do not pay attention to that. As you get closer to retirement or if retired most of your savings should not be in the stock markets imo.



I think you should be in stocks because the interest rates are so low. Actually, the interest rates are so low your money doesn’t keep up with inflation.

However, as you near retirement, liquidate some of your portfolio to meet 2 years into a cash account. That way, you aren’t stuck and have to sell in bad times.

Younger folks can have less cash and more investments. Cash though is nice for when stocks get cheap.

I certainly would say differently if rates were at the 20 percent level like they were in 1982. I loved those long gone days as I am a saver.

You are bang on about diversifying. 


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## Brett (Mar 11, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I think you should be in stocks because the interest rates are so low. Actually, the interest rates are so low your money doesn’t keep up with inflation.
> 
> However, as you near retirement, liquidate some of your portfolio to meet 2 years into a cash account. That way, you aren’t stuck and have to sell in bad times.
> 
> ...




I agree,  in retirement still keep a sizable percentage of retirement assets in a diversified low cost index fund stock portfolio ... but keep some $$ in cash and bonds and CD's for those market "corrections"


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## Panina (Mar 11, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I think you should be in stocks because the interest rates are so low. Actually, the interest rates are so low your money doesn’t keep up with inflation.
> 
> However, as you near retirement, liquidate some of your portfolio to meet 2 years into a cash account. That way, you aren’t stuck and have to sell in bad times.
> 
> ...


I have money in stocks but can afford to wait for them to go up again.  I will just not do the extras I was planning on doing such as building a deck or finishing my basement.   I will also shift some fixed money into them as they go down. 

I hesitate saying this because many will suffer because of this virus to pay their bills but being realistic, for those that can ride this downturn there is an opportunity to be better off financially. 

For our younger Tugger....  Put all you are allowed to in your IRAs and 401ks.  I did.  Friends say I am so lucky I  could retire early.  I wasn’t lucky.  I worked three jobs and saved while they were blowing their money.  I am not rich  but saving and investing in my younger years afforded me the opportunity to retire early and to be comfortable.  I do not have to worry about paying my bills now.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 11, 2020)

Panina said:


> I have money in stocks but can afford to wait for them to go up again. I will just not do the extras I was planning on doing such as building a deck or finishing my basement. I will also shift some fixed money into them as they go down.
> 
> I hesitate saying this because many will suffer because of this virus to pay their bills but being realistic, for those that can ride this downturn there is an opportunity to be better off financially.
> 
> For our younger Tugger.... Put all you are allowed to in your IRAs and 401ks. I did. Friends say I am so lucky I could retire early. I wasn’t lucky. I worked three jobs and saved while they were blowing their money. I am not rich but saving and investing in my younger years afforded me the opportunity to retire early and to be comfortable. I do not have to worry about paying my bills now.



Great advice!

Live BELOW your means. Save monthly and automatically. Max out those retirement accounts. The earlier you do it, the better you will be in retirement. @Panina is a smart lady (and a hard working one to boot!)


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## DancingWaters (Mar 11, 2020)

I had my money into a diversified account with 44% bonds.   I changed it to a more conservative account today in hopes of slowing down the loss.    We have sold 2 rentals this month and hope to close on both soon.  Any good SAFE tips on where to put $300,000?


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 11, 2020)

DancingWaters said:


> I had my money into a diversified account with 44% bonds. I changed it to a more conservative account today in hopes of slowing down the loss. We have sold 2 rentals this month and hope to close on both soon. Any good SAFE tips on where to put $300,000?



Oh my. Your diversified account was best IMO. I think this is just a blip. In a bit it will solve itself out. It least past epidemic scares turned out that way.

Maybe look around and find a money market account. Investment accounts I find are best.









						Best Money Market Mutual Funds Of 2022
					

A money market fund is an excellent option if you’re looking for a safe, short-term, and liquid vehicle to park your cash. These mutual funds are designed to provide low costs, great liquidity and very low risk.  Don’t confuse money market mutual funds with money market accounts (MMAs), which bank




					www.forbes.com
				





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## bluehende (Mar 11, 2020)

DancingWaters said:


> I had my money into a diversified account with 44% bonds.   I changed it to a more conservative account today in hopes of slowing down the loss.    We have sold 2 rentals this month and hope to close on both soon.  Any good SAFE tips on where to put $300,000?



real estate


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## DancingWaters (Mar 11, 2020)

Great Idea!!!   That’s the type of income we want to replace and my husband won’t have to plunge one toilet to earn it!!!   They were tremendous income producers


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## CO skier (Mar 11, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> I mean volatility-wise... I think things will return to normal ups+downs in about two weeks.
> Drop a stone in a pond and the waves emanating are largest at the center, less so on shore.
> That is, absent more high winds...  _which I 'spose is possible_. For now, I'm along for the ride.
> 
> .


Not sure that volatility-wise means anything.  The volatility of the Q4 2008 stock market morphed into a low-volatility, slow grind much lower into Q1 2009, until the market bottomed in March, 2009.


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## Talent312 (Mar 11, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Not sure that volatility-wise means anything.  The volatility of the Q4 2008 stock market morphed into a low-volatility, slow grind much lower into Q1 2009, until the market bottomed in March, 2009.


True... My metaphor about a roller coaster says nothing about the outcome.


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## dagger1 (Mar 12, 2020)

There’s always excellent, common sense advice here on TUG.  And really great folks!


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## geekette (Mar 12, 2020)

DancingWaters said:


> I had my money into a diversified account with 44% bonds.   I changed it to a more conservative account today in hopes of slowing down the loss.    We have sold 2 rentals this month and hope to close on both soon.  Any good SAFE tips on where to put $300,000?


congrats on your sales!  

I would first stop by my credit union to see what they have going on.  I might play some of the bank games, like collect $600 for keeping a balance of X for 3 months...   Keep under FDIC coverage.   I'd otherwise go money market, probably the one attached to my brokerage but check rates locally and national    (bankrate.com)    

CDs aren't going to move for a while and were already low.   I don't see the point of locking money up there.   Treasuries and TIPS, just not feeling it.  Money market, sure money on your money.   Go with the one that compounds the most frequently.  Daily better than weekly better than monthly.  Then the one most convenient to get your money out of without generating fees.

Good luck!


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## Brett (Mar 12, 2020)

DancingWaters said:


> I had my money into a diversified account with 44% bonds.   I changed it to a more conservative account today in hopes of slowing down the loss.    We have sold 2 rentals this month and hope to close on both soon.  Any good SAFE tips on where to put $300,000?



good SAFE tips ?
wait until the stock market is at the absolute lowest point .....  then buy


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 12, 2020)

Brett said:


> good SAFE tips ?
> wait until the stock market is at the absolute lowest point ..... then buy



I wish I knew where the bottom is. I suppose wait until at least 3 up days? I would think the bottom is when the virus issue is solved.


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## geekette (Mar 12, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I wish I knew where the bottom is. I suppose wait until at least 3 up days? I would think the bottom is when the virus issue is solved.


I am not much for trying to call it, but my gut is that the bottom is 3 weeks after we hit peak virus.   There is going to be more fear, more uncertainty, we haven't bottomed.  Last I looked, most of my companies hadn't dipped below their 52 week low yet.  

If I were deploying cash, I would do so every week.


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## DancingWaters (Mar 12, 2020)

Thank you,  we are excited for a new adventure other than rental property.   We have a condo at Lake Erie that we have been too busy to use much.   Sometimes, we think we would like to flip a condo at the lake and make a quick sale.  We still have real estate interests in our blood!   Thank you on tips for the $$$ from out sales.  We have a FA but you know what they would want to do with it and we just need some time to invest wisely


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 12, 2020)

geekette said:


> I am not much for trying to call it, but my gut is that the bottom is 3 weeks after we hit peak virus. There is going to be more fear, more uncertainty, we haven't bottomed. Last I looked, most of my companies hadn't dipped below their 52 week low yet.
> 
> If I were deploying cash, I would do so every week.



Dollar cost averaging is always smart. It takes the emotions out of the equation. I have 2 FAs handle the bulk and I only manage 250 k. You know, I worry more about the 250 k than the bulk because I manage it . 


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## geekette (Mar 13, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Dollar cost averaging is always smart. It takes the emotions out of the equation. I have 2 FAs handle the bulk and I only manage 250 k. You know, I worry more about the 250 k than the bulk because I manage it .
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


The way I look at it is, I got myself this far, and if it all somehow goes POOF, I'll be ok.  I'm not a rules-follower, I do my own thing, and got interested back in 8th grade.  I am mostly immune to fear and greed as I am in it to float my old butt to the finish line, not to maximize every dime or have more than someone else.  I am in it for the businesses, not the market.  I'm an owner, not a trader.   I don't play What If games, I make a decision and I Do That.    I had to choose between Lowe's and HD.  I chose HD and have not looked at how Lowe's has done because I don't care, I own HD, and it has done great.   I don't have emotions tied up in it and it actually puzzles me that people do, but I think I have a different mindset and relationship with money.  It's just not The Thing for me.   I don't measure myself by it.  

With each company I buy, I ask myself if I believe it can live at least 50 years.  I only sloughed off on that twice, to buy some specs, last of the money to be deployed after filling portfolio with titans. Mixed results on that, so admonished self for breaking my own rules and moved on.  I could lose half my companies and still be fine.  These crashes haven't cost me anything, I still have all the shares I had.  

People can talk about being wiped out or capital destruction or whatnot but that's just talk.  I own companies that continue doing business.  I'm not interested in "playing" the stock market but don't care what other people do.  When I want to play with money, I go to the casino and leave when my "to play" money is gone from my pocket, and hopefully my "winning" pocket is bulging.  It has never made sense to me that "you'll lose everything in the stock market" as that is clearly not true, but it is very easy to Lose Everything in a casino very quickly.


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## Passepartout (Mar 13, 2020)

I have lightened my exposure to equities and am hanging onto the income producing bonds. I feel that we haven't reached a 'bottom' yet, and when we start getting some more positive news- like available testing and possibly treatment, it'll recover quickly and I'll be well positioned to dollar-cost-average back into equities, but for now, my sleep is worth more than the possible gain I might miss.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 13, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> I have lightened my exposure to equities and am hanging onto the income producing bonds. I feel that we haven't reached a 'bottom' yet, and when we start getting some more positive news- like available testing and possibly treatment, it'll recover quickly and I'll be well positioned to dollar-cost-average back into equities, but for now, my sleep is worth more than the possible gain I might miss.



Agree. 

Bulls make money
Bears make money
Pigs get slaughtered. 


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## VacationForever (Mar 13, 2020)

As I have mentioned that our investments are managed, not by us.  I looked at the activities history and see that they are selling bonds ETF etc and picking up stocks related positions.  I guess they are making use of the crash to pick up lower price stocks, or to position back to stock-fixed income ratio.  Since we don't need withdrawals until another year out, except RMD, we are not worried about what our portfolio looks like.


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## Talent312 (Mar 13, 2020)

We were 50-50 bonds to stock before the recent troubles.
I haven't had the guts to look recently.
I check in again, in about 2 weeks, to see where we stand.


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## VacationForever (Mar 13, 2020)

Right now we are down 14 percent from end of 2019.  Our FA sent us a material prepared by the firm about the current state of the stock market.  Nothing that we don't know already.  I am glad that I decided to buy deferred income annuities 4 years ago to hedge our bets.  Unfortunately we made a couple of large purchases end of last year and this year.  Our cash in the bank is supposed to last until 2022 but now our next withdraw will need to happen middle of next year.  It is not huge dollars but still, we don't like to sell when the market is down.  We figure by then things should have been stablized.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 13, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Right now we are down 14 percent from end of 2019. Our FA sent us a material prepared by the firm about the current state of the stock market. Nothing that we don't know already. I am glad that I decided to buy deferred income annuities 4 years ago to hedge our bets. Unfortunately we made a couple of large purchases this end of last year and this year. Our cash in the bank is supposed to last until 2022 but now our next withdraw will need to happen middle of next year. It is not huge dollars but still, we don't like to sell when the market is down. We figure by then things should have been stablized.



I notice the Dow surge while President Trump was speaking. It ended at 1950 points up. I see a vaccine or treatment very soon that will end the crisis. Red tape was eliminated so that will speed things up considerably. Hang tight. I still see this as a blip. It may take 2 quarters to sift out but in the end I think your accounts will be in fine shape. 


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## Rjbeach2003 (Mar 13, 2020)

My wife and I are fortunate to each have SS and State retirement.  Our IRA's and other funds are invested in a diverse portfolio by a qualified money manager.  With the few stocks owned outside that, they are and were buy and hold.  One B of A over the past 20 years has ranged from a high of $50 or so to a low of $ to today around $20, with a high this year of $30+.  I'm glad I don't have to count on IRA for constant income.  Everything is fixed, with CofLiving adjustments.


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## Bucky (Mar 14, 2020)

We bailed after the big drop Thursday. Even though we had a balanced portfolio the volatility finally got to us. We will get back in, just like we did when the last major volatility ended (during the Mueller investigation). Made great money on that move. Market dropped 10% giving us a great buying opportunity again.

I feel the same way about this volatility. There will be another great buying opportunity, I just don’t see it happening in the short term. Bad enough that it’s an election year which can rattle markets now we have a major pandemic that most of us have never seen before. I think the next buying opportunity will be when an antidote for Covid-19 is announced or some other type of major positive announcement.

Until then we will probably remain in cash, just in case. Would rather miss some of the eventual bounce than continue to play the up and down game and watch all of our previous gains disappear. Everything will smooth out again someday, just hope it’s in my lifetime.


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## geekette (Mar 14, 2020)

19 divs in so far this month.  No cuts, no suspensions.  Value isn't down enough for concern, most haven't even dropped below 52 week low, which is in most cases higher than the highs in past years!  Will I have 19 payments between June 1 and June 13?  I don't know, but I'm not changing anything.  I haven't lost a company yet and don't expect it in 2020, but nobody knows what can't be known, so I'll sit tight.  I own a lot of consumer staples, and we know nobody is going without TP or food and I'm pretty sure that Clorox will come through unscathed.


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## Brett (Mar 14, 2020)

Hopefully in a few months all this social distancing will work and everything will be back to normal


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## Passepartout (Mar 16, 2020)

Well, that ol' 7% immediate annuity I bought all those years ago suddenly looks PLUMB WONDERFUL!


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## VacationForever (Mar 16, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Well, that ol' 7% immediate annuity I bought all those years ago suddenly looks PLUMB WONDERFUL!


I have to wait 2.5 more years to see the first payment from my purchase.  Still, I am feeling pretty good about it.


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## Brett (Mar 16, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Well, that ol' 7% immediate annuity I bought all those years ago suddenly looks PLUMB WONDERFUL!



maybe, the stock market is back to where it was at June 2017   ..... so many years ago


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## Passepartout (Mar 16, 2020)

Brett said:


> maybe, the stock market is back to where it was at June 2017   ..... so many years ago


I was in the equities market until last Thursday. So I guess I didn't miss much. But right now the monthly income is welcome in these uneasy times.


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## bluehende (Mar 16, 2020)

Brett said:


> maybe, the stock market is back to where it was at June 2017   ..... so many years ago




You sent me to the charting software.  Actually the last time it was this low  (at the close today) was the week of feb 6 2017.   One interesting thing is the last week it was below these levels for the whole week was a week before a bigly crowd in DC.  Since I have been bored at home I have used the volatility to try my hand at  short term trading.  So far I am 3 for 3 with assuming we would retrace half of the day before's loss or gain.  I am annoyed that I missed half the move today when I panicked mid day and took my 6 %.  I am set up long for tomorrow.  My guess is it will not be as much fun when the pattern breaks.

edited to say I used the dow for this and thanks to boeing it probably looks the worst.

Sorry to keep editing but charts can keep me busy for a long time.  The SPY was right where it is in june 2017.  It briefly went lower than present levels in dec 2018 right before christmas.  For those chartists this looks like a perfect retest of those dec 2018 lows as long as it holds 233


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## dagger1 (Mar 16, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Well, that ol' 7% immediate annuity I bought all those years ago suddenly looks PLUMB WONDERFUL!


I will say it again, all those annuity haters are really quiet right now....


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## Passepartout (Mar 16, 2020)

dagger1 said:


> I will say it again, all those annuity haters are really quiet right now....


I just wish I felt as good about other life matters right now as I do about my annuities.


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## am1 (Mar 16, 2020)

dagger1 said:


> I will say it again, all those annuity haters are really quiet right now....



Who is backing the annuities?


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## VacationForever (Mar 16, 2020)

am1 said:


> Who is backing the annuities?


Insurance companies sell annuities and they invest in safer investments, and never in equities, hence the low rate of returns on annuities.  They invest mainly in bonds and the rate of returns is tied very closely to long term bond rates.  Buyers also get higher returns from mortality credits, i.e. some will die off and never get back what they put in.


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

dagger1 said:


> I will say it again, all those annuity haters are really quiet right now....


no hater here.   

I don't like (trust)  insurance companies, and I don't like that annuity sales are often packed with extra fees or confusing fine print.  I don't like that the annuity is forever tied to the health of that insurance company.

That said, there are some great products sold by some solid companies.  

They aren't for me, but I understand why people like them.  I can't fault someone for wanting a (nearly) sure thing.  It would be hard for me to hand over a chunk of money to lock in, so I respect annuity owners for being able to do that.

I don't ever HA HA HA to annuity holders when equities are flying high, but note that I am not boo hoo hoo over my equities, either.  I own a lot of companies and I understand the risks.  Some of my companies might not make it to the other side of the "coronacession", but I've owned stock for over 30 years so I'm far from panic-stricken.  I don't sell and I haven't lost any yet.  Maybe this time, maybe not.


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## Brett (Mar 17, 2020)

dagger1 said:


> I will say it again, all those annuity haters are really quiet right now....



the "haters" who hold stocks probably also invest in fixed income - bonds, cds, preferred stock, real estate, etc
and some pension "annuities" are invested in stocks - e.g. Calpers


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## WinniWoman (Mar 17, 2020)

I think if annuities work for people - great. And the lucky people who have pensions that they can actually live on. For me and my husband, Social Security is the annuity and the pension all in one and we are holding off collecting as long as we can.


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## bogey21 (Mar 17, 2020)

The primary risk one has with an annuity or Pension is the financial condition of the entity making the monthly payments.  The biggest problem is the potential that the financial condition of these entities can change over time meaning that the financial condition of the entity obligated to send you monthly payments may deteriorate from what it was when you made your decision to buy an annuity or accept monthly payments for your Pension instead of taking a lump sum...

Having said this I am happy I took my Pension as an annuity...

George


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## dagger1 (Mar 17, 2020)

am1 said:


> Who is backing the annuities?





geekette said:


> no hater here.
> 
> I don't like (trust)  insurance companies, and I don't like that annuity sales are often packed with extra fees or confusing fine print.  I don't like that the annuity is forever tied to the health of that insurance company.
> 
> ...


Totally agree with you.  One leg (of our 4 legged retirement stool) is stocks/bonds (corporate and municipal)/mutual funds.  The Social Security leg and Annuity leg provide (together) more than enough for our day to day expenses.  Market fluctuations in the investment leg are of minor significance, because this portfolio will go to our children and grandchildren.  This is not to say that we enjoy seeing a 15-25% decline in the value of this portfolio, but it doesn’t effect our day to day lives.
I have never and would never call an annuity an investment (nor is social security an investment).  It is a self purchased pension, providing all the benefits so apparent right now with all of this stock turmoil.


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

dagger1 said:


> I have never and would never call an annuity an investment (nor is social security an investment).  It is a *self purchased pension*, providing all the benefits so apparent right now with all of this stock turmoil.


Great terminology!


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## Passepartout (Mar 17, 2020)

geekette said:


> Great terminology!


This is precisely what it is. It's just one part of the whole retirement package- not the ONLY part.


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## dagger1 (Mar 17, 2020)

Also, it might be interesting to see how many insurance companies have defaulted on their contractual payments (I think it’s close if not zero) over the last 200 years.  Insurance companies all reinsure with each other.  Not to say it couldn’t happen, but highly unlikely.  Compared to stock values falling and dividend cuts and/or elimination, annuities are extremely secure.  That’s why they can’t provide the gains or other upsides of a stock/bond/mutual fund portfolio.  They are an insurance product meant to provide a secure retirement, nothing more.
And it also amazes me that some find it hard to pay the upfront 6-8% commission (which is actually largely paid by the insurance company if the annuity is held the standard ten years); but have no problem paying 1/2 -1-1/2% of their investment portfolio PER YEAR to their mutual fund/brokerage company/investment manager.  As the portfolio grows, so does the annual fee because it’s a percentage of the gross portfolio.  Even 1/2% per year over 20 years is a 10% taking.  And these fees never stop...


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> This is precisely what it is. It's just one part of the whole retirement package- not the ONLY part.


Or, no part.

I am 401k generation, no pension, just my savings and SS, but anchored by paid off home where I could live off the land if necessary.  I'd hate to take a roommate, but I could.   

I could not possibly part with lump sum for an annuity.  I need liquidity, that's cash and stocks.  Two-legged stools are what most folks GenX and on will have.   I don't imagine folks younger than me will be interested in paying big sums to insurance companies for a promise, as too many of us have seen promises vaporize.  My money where I can see it matters more.   Plenty of us know that it won't be possible to have more than enough to fund retirement, it's not a realistic goal, workers are being left behind, the lower on the rung you are, the worse it is.  Work till you die is the new reality.


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

dagger1 said:


> Also, it might be interesting to see how many insurance companies have defaulted on their contractual payments (I think it’s close if not zero) over the last 200 years.  Insurance companies all reinsure with each other.  Not to say it couldn’t happen, but highly unlikely.  Compared to stock values falling and dividend cuts and/or elimination, annuities are extremely secure.  That’s why they can’t provide the gains or other upsides of a stock/bond/mutual fund portfolio.  They are an insurance product meant to provide a secure retirement, nothing more.
> And it also amazes me that some find it hard to pay the upfront 6-8% commission (which is actually largely paid by the insurance company if the annuity is held the standard ten years); but have no problem paying 1/2 -1-1/2% of their investment portfolio PER YEAR to their mutual fund/brokerage company/investment manager.  As the portfolio grows, so does the annual fee because it’s a percentage of the gross portfolio.  Even 1/2% per year over 20 years is a 10% taking.  And these fees never stop...


Exactly why I own stocks directly, and now no fee to buy or sell.  I have always been significantly fee averse. My plan was always to keep as much of my money as possible.  

My sister has someone manage her money, they take 2% every year.  ouch,


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## dagger1 (Mar 17, 2020)

geekette said:


> Exactly why I own stocks directly, and now no fee to buy or sell.  I have always been significantly fee averse. My plan was always to keep as much of my money as possible.
> 
> My sister has someone manage her money, they take 2% every year.  ouch,


6-8% up front looks pretty good compared to the 2% a year fee.  Especially since the annuity commission is paid by the insurance company.  Of course if you cash out an annuity before the contractually agreed upon term, you can take a big hit.
It’s also very interesting to read about the way brokerage companies make money in self directed accounts, even with zero trade commissions.  They still get paid when buying or selling...


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## Brett (Mar 18, 2020)

ugh ... another ugly day on the "street"


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## Panina (Mar 18, 2020)

Brett said:


> ugh ... another ugly day on the "street"
> 
> View attachment 18065


Imo It will get uglier, My guess is  right under 16000.  Hope I am wrong, and it gets better, for many it will be disastrous short term.  Planning on moving assets then.


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## DavidnRobin (Mar 18, 2020)

How low will the Dow Jones go?

Any guesses?
Might as well have fun with it while 30-40% of the Equity market has gone ‘poof’.

^DJIA Closing value:
My guess -
16,300


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 18, 2020)

Panina said:


> Imo It will get uglier, My guess is right under 16000. Hope I am wrong, and it gets better, for many it will be disastrous short term. Planning on moving assets then.



Sadly, I think you might be right. I suppose it all depends in truly how bad this problem is. They are sure treating it like an apocalyptic problem. Shutting everything down for months could make this a depression and if that happens, we could see 2009 Dow. The problem here is governments, corporations and individuals went debt crazy which means few bullets to address the problem, individuals one pay check from doom and risk of financial collapse as defaults skyrocket.

I never thought a virus could potentially destroy our economies. 

I was lucky in one way, my FAs did put 40 percent of my holdings in early February based on them seeing cracks in the economy (not because of this virus) which has kept the losses at 15 percent. I am now glad they did that even though it’s still a train wreck.

I still see in 5 years, it will recover if one is well diversified. 

The travel industry is in real hurt. Hilton is shutting down many hotels. I can see major pops in MFs to try to survive if this keeps going.

With oil at 20 bux a barrel, Canada is really in a world of hurt. Economic collapse is a real possibility as we are in debt and rely on natural resources that are either collapsing in price or not needed as manufacturing is stopping. Plus, governments are injecting money we don’t have to try to mitigate the collapse. I can see the US recovering better because of its huge, diversified economy. 


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## Rolltydr (Mar 18, 2020)

Brett said:


> ugh ... another ugly day on the "street"
> 
> View attachment 18065



Not taking any chances, huh, Brett? 


Harry


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## Brett (Mar 18, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Not taking any chances, huh, Brett?
> 
> 
> Harry



I take 'chances' every day !
.
But I've been moving $$ from low cost index funds to fixed income each month since Nov 2016
I didn't know how it would end .....   just gotta be prepared


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## Rolltydr (Mar 18, 2020)

Brett said:


> I take 'chances' every day !
> .
> But I've been moving $$ from low cost index funds to fixed income each month since Nov 2016
> I didn't know how it would end .....   just gotta be prepared


So true. You never know when it all might be erased!


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## bogey21 (Mar 18, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> With oil at 20 bux a barrel, Canada is really in a world of hurt.



As are the "frackers".  My Son works in the Permian Basin.  I gather from what he tells me is that the big guys with plenty of cash and little debt have stopped drilling.  The small Independents who are leveraged with a lot of debt have to keep drilling to pay their debt service.  To realize any profitability at all they negotiate lower fees from the Service Companies (where my Son works) who have an incentive to work with them to keep from having to lay off their crews.  In short everyone is sharing the pain...

George


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## Panina (Mar 18, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Sadly, I think you might be right. I suppose it all depends in truly how bad this problem is. They are sure treating it like an apocalyptic problem. Shutting everything down for months could make this a depression and if that happens, we could see 2009 Dow. The problem here is governments, corporations and individuals went debt crazy which means few bullets to address the problem, individuals one pay check from doom and risk of financial collapse as defaults skyrocket.
> 
> I never thought a virus could potentially destroy our economies.
> 
> ...


I don’t think it will take five years, Imo two years at the most.  One year to start seeing good progress.  I do agree US will recover better.  I can see that infrastructure package occurring.  What’s another trillion dollars to the debt at this point.  Now if that isn’t dealt with in the next five years that could be the cause of a real collapse.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 18, 2020)

Panina said:


> I don’t think it will take five years, Imo two years at the most. One year to start seeing good progress. I do agree US will recover better. I can see that infrastructure package occurring. What’s another trillion dollars to the debt at this point. Now if that isn’t dealt with in the next five years that could be the cause of a real collapse.



2 years is typical like 2000-2001 or 2008-2009. However, this one seems more damaging to me. Businesses are being forced to shut down versus businesses operate in a slower environment. I suppose if this is no more than 60 days, it may recover in 2 years. However, I have been getting reports that this could last 6 months to one year at the outset. If that happens, the economic damage is incalculable. 


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## Passepartout (Mar 18, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> As are the "frackers".  My Son works in the Permian Basin.  I gather from what he tells me is that the big guys with plenty of cash and little debt have stopped drilling.  The small Independents who are leveraged with a lot of debt have to keep drilling to pay their debt service.


The tanking of the fuel price has messed up my favorite sector which is the electric cars. Nothing would help them as much as $5.00+ gasoline. But it's a segment I have no control of. So be it. For the last half a year, we've only been buying about 15 to 20 gallons of gas a month.

Jim


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## Luvtoride (Mar 18, 2020)

We’re meeting with our FA tomw night ( was arranged late Feb just as all hell was breaking loose). He said he has some good ideas for us that we will like. We are fortunate that we are about 3 years away from retirement and both have pensions. Will be interesting to get his perspective and thoughts on how far this sets us back (if at all) from the rosy picture we had seen last month. Keeping my fingers crossed. 
BTW, I wouldn’t sell a thing right now and lock in these losses. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Panina (Mar 18, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> 2 years is typical like 2000-2001 or 2008-2009. However, this one seems more damaging to me. Businesses are being forced to shut down versus businesses operate in a slower environment. I suppose if this is no more than 60 days, it may recover in 2 years. However, I have been getting reports that this could last 6 months to one year at the outset. If that happens, the economic damage is incalculable.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Yes more damaging but once over the mindset will be different then those years.  This didn’t happen because of bad times, which is a major difference.  There will be many businesses that close because of this but there will be others that take advantage of the demand and they will take their place.  We will talk two years after this ends and see.  

I am optimistic.  I will compare it to a surgery I had to have that many experience depression after it.  I worried about that prior to it and my doctor said “you will wake up and say it is gone and you will be relieved and will be fine”.  I was fine in 19 days when most took 3-4 months to recover.  I believe when the High risk of this virus is past us, the relief will have us all striving to quickly get back to better times.


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## TravelTime (Mar 18, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> 2 years is typical like 2000-2001 or 2008-2009. However, this one seems more damaging to me. Businesses are being forced to shut down versus businesses operate in a slower environment. I suppose if this is no more than 60 days, it may recover in 2 years. However, I have been getting reports that this could last 6 months to one year at the outset. If that happens, the economic damage is incalculable.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I agree. This seems much worse than previous recessions. I think this could turn into a depression. Everyone is getting hit. Businesses have started layoffs already. Everything is shut down. How can an economy survive this for very long?


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 18, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> We’re meeting with our FA tomw night ( was arranged late Feb just as all hell was breaking loose). He said he has some good ideas for us that we will like. We are fortunate that we are about 3 years away from retirement and both have pensions. Will be interesting to get his perspective and thoughts on how far this sets us back (if at all) from the rosy picture we had seen last month. Keeping my fingers crossed.
> BTW, I wouldn’t sell a thing right now and lock in these losses.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I agree. I wouldn’t take the losses either. This will pass at some point. 

My lesson here is when some strange disease hits the media, I watch the markets carefully and when I see 1 k or more drops in a day, I sell and wait a bit.

Frankly, I never in my wildest imagination would think a virus would inflict this much damage. If I saw something like the plague coming and people were dropping in droves, I would think different. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Panina (Mar 18, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I agree. I wouldn’t take the losses either. This will pass at some point.
> 
> My lesson here is when some strange disease hits the media, I watch the markets carefully and when I see 1 k or more drops in a day, I sell and wait a bit.
> 
> ...


People are acting like this will go on until we are all gone.  I think the TP buying frenzy was the clue to sell.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 18, 2020)

Panina said:


> People are acting like this will go on until we are all gone. I think the TP buying frenzy was the clue to sell.



I suppose even though it’s a respiratory illness primarily. 

Ok, stocks fluctuate past 1 k Dow, TP and hand sanitizer frenzy...sell ASAP. 


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## Panina (Mar 18, 2020)

Now this can make it worse and longer to recover








						Coronavirus: Asian nations face second wave of imported cases
					

There is growing concern that people returning home as borders close could bring the virus with them.



					www.bbc.com


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 19, 2020)

Panina said:


> Now this can make it worse and longer to recover
> 
> 
> 
> ...



You know, when I see this unfolding, the advice Dave Ramsey provides gets even more powerful. That being

Get out of debt
Live below your means
Save, save, save
Have 6 months emergency cash.


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## Panina (Mar 19, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> You know, when I see this unfolding, the advice Dave Ramsey provides gets even more powerful. That being
> 
> Get out of debt
> Live below your means
> ...


Unfortunately most don’t follow that advice even if they have the income to do it.


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## Brett (Mar 19, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> You know, when I see this unfolding, the advice Dave Ramsey provides gets even more powerful. That being
> 
> Get out of debt
> Live below your means
> ...




I'm not sure I would follow all of Dave Ramsey's recommendations !
*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Ramsey*

for sure,  minimum debt, having emergency cash and living "below your means" is sound advice


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## mjm1 (Mar 19, 2020)

Dave Ramsey offers a lot of good advice, but not everything. Ironically, he recommends never own a timeshare. One of the timeshare exit companies advertises on his radio show too. That’s another topic.

Best regards.

Mike


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## dagger1 (Mar 19, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> As are the "frackers".  My Son works in the Permian Basin.  I gather from what he tells me is that the big guys with plenty of cash and little debt have stopped drilling.  The small Independents who are leveraged with a lot of debt have to keep drilling to pay their debt service.  To realize any profitability at all they negotiate lower fees from the Service Companies (where my Son works) who have an incentive to work with them to keep from having to lay off their crews.  In short everyone is sharing the pain...
> 
> George


Oilfield service companies are getting creamed right now.  Check out Halliburton at $4.50/share and Schlumberger at $12/share....  These are fire sale prices.  Those little independent oil companies with huge debt can’t service it with $24 bbl oil.  They are paying to drill.  And the drilling is the cheap part. The completion (fracking) is where the real expense is...


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## Brett (Mar 20, 2020)

another brutal day / week on the "street"

... worse than 2008  ....


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 20, 2020)

Brett said:


> another brutal day / week on the "street"
> 
> ... worse than 2008 ....
> 
> View attachment 18119



I hope business shutdowns don’t last or this thing will ️️️


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Panina (Mar 20, 2020)

Brett said:


> another brutal day / week on the "street"
> 
> ... worse than 2008  ....
> 
> View attachment 18119


Yep and hold on, as the numbers go up in the US many brutal days might follow .


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## Brett (Mar 20, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I hope business shutdowns don’t last or this thing will ️️️
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk




yes,  I hope there won't be "Hoovervilles" like in 1930
but (of course) they won't be called 'hoovervilles'  .......


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## geekette (Mar 20, 2020)

Boeing cut its dividend, suspends buybacks, and both CEO and Chairman will forgo pay this year.

Stock price off a cliff.

I've owned it since mid 2010, holding.  It's not into loss territory for me yet, since I bought so long ago, so much cheaper, but will still hold.  

My first div loss of The Pandemic Era.


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## Brett (Mar 20, 2020)

geekette said:


> Boeing cut its dividend, suspends buybacks, and both CEO and Chairman will forgo pay this year.
> 
> Stock price off a cliff.
> 
> ...



and it probably won't be your last dividend lost in the "Pandemic Era"   -  Ford and other companies are suspending quarterly dividends


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## geekette (Mar 20, 2020)

Brett said:


> and it probably won't be your last dividend lost in the "Pandemic Era"   -  Ford and other companies are suspending quarterly dividends


Yep, just wasn't sure where it would start!   Not like Boeing problems were new, surprised it took so long.  It's fine, I have plenty of time for it to right itself.

I have never invested in auto companies nor airlines.  I like owning food and consumer staples, utilities, railroads.  I am intentionally light in retail, COST and HD are it.  Both remain open, both will likely remain open.


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## Bucky (Mar 21, 2020)

I just don’t understand the buy & hold philosophy during this churn and burn period! I went to total cash on 3/12. A day late but thats ok. In my opinion better than holding and watching everything we had worked so hard over the years just going so low that we would never get it back in our lifetime. We are not out forever, just until the world stabilizes in some manner again. The market will come back again some day and i will end up not buying at the bottom but will still be able to catch a nice ride up again.


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## Brett (Mar 21, 2020)

Bucky said:


> I just don’t understand the buy & hold philosophy during this churn and burn period! I went to total cash on 3/12. A day late but thats ok. In my opinion better than holding and watching everything we had worked so hard over the years just going so low that we would never get it back in our lifetime. We are not out forever, just until the world stabilizes in some manner again. The market will come back again some day and i will end up not buying at the bottom but will still be able to catch a nice ride up again.



You are indeed clairvoyant in being able to time the stock market ups and downs.   and "catching a nice ride up"
Many people (myself included) do not have those abilities 

Probably why people without those predictive powers hold a mix of stock index funds, bonds, and other fixed income.
And maybe a little RE investments thrown in - like fast appreciating timeshares


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## pedro47 (Mar 21, 2020)

Even with a mixture of stocks index funds, bonds and other fixed income things are not looking good,
Our RMD for 2020 is not looking are that bright IMO.


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## geekette (Mar 21, 2020)

Bucky said:


> I just don’t understand the buy & hold philosophy during this churn and burn period! I went to total cash on 3/12. A day late but thats ok. In my opinion better than holding and watching everything we had worked so hard over the years just going so low that we would never get it back in our lifetime. We are not out forever, just until the world stabilizes in some manner again. The market will come back again some day and i will end up not buying at the bottom but will still be able to catch a nice ride up again.


If you aren't out forever, why are  you out?

I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago.  None of my companies have gone bankrupt.  You can believe the "never get it back in our lifetime" but I would question why you think that.   I don't actually believe that this is the end of the road for Boeing, that they will cease operations and next year will not exist.   My cost per sh is still lower than this sunk price.  

I'm an investor, I am invested.  Buy and hold is not a philosophy, it's a tactic that supports my long hold dividend reinvestment strategy.  My strategy and tactics have not changed because they have worked for me through all kinds of markets.  It's ok if you don't understand it.  I don't understand selling at a loss.  

It's not a major concern that this one company in my portfolio has stopped the dividend for a while.  Sometimes that is the right thing to do.  I'm not sure Boeing was fully punished for the Max but it's getting the belt now.

Case by case, company by company, they'll do what they need to do to survive.  Vioxx didn't wipe out Merck, one of my first companies.  Baby powder hasn't wiped out JNJ.    

When we emerge from this, I will still have as many shares as before.   What exactly should I be worried about?  Share price?  That bounces around daily in normal times.


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## Brett (Mar 21, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Even with a mixture of stocks index funds, bonds and other fixed income things are not looking good,
> Our RMD for 2020 is not looking are that bright IMO.



yes,  depends on the mix
If one believes this is a major depression that will take 20 years to recover and you're 90 years old then holding a significant majority of your financial assets in CDs and high quality bonds (or pensions)  is advised


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## Rolltydr (Mar 21, 2020)

geekette said:


> If you aren't out forever, why are you out?
> 
> I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago. None of my companies have gone bankrupt. You can believe the "never get it back in our lifetime" but I would question why you think that. I don't actually believe that this is the end of the road for Boeing, that they will cease operations and next year will not exist. My cost per sh is still lower than this sunk price.
> 
> ...



Healthy perspective. Especially for your mental health!


Harry


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## bogey21 (Mar 21, 2020)

geekette said:


> I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago.  None of my companies have gone bankrupt...  When we emerge from this, I will still have as many shares as before.   What exactly should I be worried about?  Share price?  That bounces around daily in normal times.



Historically you are dead right.  I'm not sure this situation may not be the exception to the rule...

George


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## Icc5 (Mar 21, 2020)

Bucky said:


> I just don’t understand the buy & hold philosophy during this churn and burn period! I went to total cash on 3/12. A day late but thats ok. In my opinion better than holding and watching everything we had worked so hard over the years just going so low that we would never get it back in our lifetime. We are not out forever, just until the world stabilizes in some manner again. The market will come back again some day and i will end up not buying at the bottom but will still be able to catch a nice ride up again.


Most of my holdings I bought when they were very low and I'm in most for the divided.  Luckily I don't need the money because of other investments I can sit and wait.  Our kids will come out great when I pass on.  When the market dropped so much in 2008 I went down to about 50% but within a few years I was about a third higher then when it started.  Following my way up to now at least I've always prospered both on paper from holding and in my pocket from dividends.  Also with the dividends I've done well enough to invest in other things such as tax free bonds.
Bart


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## geekette (Mar 21, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> Historically you are dead right.  I'm not sure this situation may not be the exception to the rule...
> 
> George


The big freak out is premature.  Most all of my companies are still priced higher than their 52 week low.  I own a lot of food, we know people are eating.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 21, 2020)

geekette said:


> If you aren't out forever, why are you out?
> 
> I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago. None of my companies have gone bankrupt. You can believe the "never get it back in our lifetime" but I would question why you think that. I don't actually believe that this is the end of the road for Boeing, that they will cease operations and next year will not exist. My cost per sh is still lower than this sunk price.
> 
> ...



I agree. One of my FAs showed me the history of crisis.

View attachment market-volatility-sheet.pdf

I must say this one is a doozy. The trend is sheer panic, sellathon, shake out weak holders, resume upward trend. Fear can be an enemy. Selling is further triggered by margin calls too

On that note, we forget people make money in the way down on shorts and puts. The blips you see up (some call it dead cat bounce) are folks covering their positions.

My FAs just do some puts in early February as a hedge so losses are controlled right now at 12 percent.

Frankly, I am adding more gradually as I see a big pop at some point. Initially, this was not a financial problem. Saying that, if we stay shut down and quarantined, it could end up the way.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Bucky (Mar 22, 2020)

Brett said:


> You are indeed clairvoyant in being able to time the stock market ups and downs.   and "catching a nice ride up"
> Many people (myself included) do not have those abilities
> 
> Probably why people without those predictive powers hold a mix of stock index funds, bonds, and other fixed income.
> And maybe a little RE investments thrown in - like fast appreciating timeshares



Not clairvoyant by any means. It’s not about timing the market. It’s just about buy low and sell high. Like I’ve said before there are no fundamentals in play right now. It’s all being news driven. The news is all negative right now. When there is an antidote or at least a treatment announced, the market will stabilize again. Another trigger may be when we see the daily numbers in Italy start to make a turn. For me to just sit around knowing what’s going on and not take flight to safety, just makes absolutely no sense. The market will be there when this is all over and I will get back n at that time. For the present I am protecting myself the best I can. Good luck to everyone.



geekette said:


> If you aren't out forever, why are  you out?
> 
> I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago.  None of my companies have gone bankrupt.  You can believe the "never get it back in our lifetime" but I would question why you think that.   I don't actually believe that this is the end of the road for Boeing, that they will cease operations and next year will not exist.   My cost per sh is still lower than this sunk price.
> 
> ...



Its really quite simple. We are 70 year olds and I have severe heart disease. In the 10 days that we have been cash only our investments would have lost another 12%. Being all cash prevented that. The market is not going to bounce straight up to where it was. In fact, it may never get back to that level again, at least in my lifetime. When it does stabilize I will get back in. I wont catch the bottom. I wouldn’t even try. I want to see a turn around and a confirmation before I even start nibbling again.

We Obviously have two different goals during this mess, which is just fine. But, people have to do what they are comfortable with and I’m not comfortable knowing, or at least having a strong fact based basis that the market will continue to spiral down for the time being, with leaving our money in the market.

Now, in the short term let’s hope there are no glitches with electronic trading only starting tomorrow.


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## Brett (Mar 22, 2020)

Bucky said:


> Not clairvoyant by any means. It’s not about timing the market. It’s just about buy low and sell high. Like I’ve said before there are no fundamentals in play right now. It’s all being news driven. The news is all negative right now. When there is an antidote or at least a treatment announced, the market will stabilize again. Another trigger may be when we see the daily numbers in Italy start to make a turn. For me to just sit around knowing what’s going on and not take flight to safety, just makes absolutely no sense. The market will be there when this is all over and I will get back n at that time. For the present I am protecting myself the best I can. Good luck to everyone.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




OK, it's not about market timing but having the ability to pick the highs and lows and "catching the ride" back up when it's obvious
yes, being 100% invested in cash right now is a very good thing for you


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## geekette (Mar 22, 2020)

I completely agree that everyone has their own deal going on.   If corona doesn't get me, I do expect to live another 40 years.  I generally only invest in companies that I expect to outlive me.  Time will tell if I got that right on some, none or all accounts.  Since there is nobody but me depending on my savings, I am comfortable with what others view as extreme risk.  I've been poor before, I'll manage no matter how this comes out.


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## Bucky (Mar 22, 2020)

geekette said:


> I completely agree that everyone has their own deal going on.   If corona doesn't get me, I do expect to live another 40 years.  I generally only invest in companies that I expect to outlive me.  Time will tell if I got that right on some, none or all accounts.  Since there is nobody but me depending on my savings, I am comfortable with what others view as extreme risk.  I've been poor before, I'll manage no matter how this comes out.



Totally agree with you. While I bailed for the time being, I have not recommended that to our 43 yr old daughter. She has been diligently investing to her 401k every payday. After 20 years with a great company match, she has managed to grow a good size portfolio. She has at least another 20 years to continue to grow it and recoup short term losses when they happen.


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## pedro47 (Mar 22, 2020)

Future Tax Question: IRA Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) are based upon your balance on December 31 of the previous year. That would mean your RMD balances  on December 31,2019.

IMO, all balances would be higher for tax year 2019; before the stock market tank. Is this correct or am I wrong in my thinking.

Will Congress offers to make some RMD adjustments for tax year 2019?

No political answers .*Please....*


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## VacationForever (Mar 22, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Future Tax Question: IRA Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) are based upon your balance on December 31 of the previous year. That would mean your RMD balances  on December 31,2019.
> 
> IMO, all balances would be higher for tax year 2019; before the stock market tank. Is this correct or am I wrong in my thinking.
> 
> No political answers.


Yes.  This year you have to pull your RMD, calculated based on Dec 31 2019 ending balance in all of your IRA.

If you turn 70.5 years this year, you can defer RMD until March 31, 2021 based on Dec 2019 balance, and if you do this you will need to take a second RMD based on Dec 2020 balance by Dec 2021, i.e. 2 RMD withdrawals in 2021.


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## Passepartout (Mar 22, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Future Tax Question: IRA Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) are based upon your balance on December 31 of the previous year. That would mean your RMD balances  on December 31,2019.
> 
> IMO, all balances would be higher for tax year 2019; before the stock market tank. Is this correct or am I wrong in my thinking.
> 
> ...


Good question. And one that for which there isn't an answer. Maybe write your reprsentatives and express that in fairness it should be brought up. This would take congressional law changing. This will have to be addressed when- and only when the immediate crisis has passed. I can assure you that nothing will be done while the economic, social, and pandemic is still ramping up.

Jim


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## pedro47 (Mar 22, 2020)

Thanks. ...I am going asked my FA and Vanguard this same question


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## geekette (Mar 22, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Thanks. ...I am going asked my FA and Vanguard this same question


I don't think they will change it and don't think they should change it.

Why would you want to be forced to remove more?   Don't lobby for that change.


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## Ken555 (Mar 22, 2020)

Another IRA question... for those that need to, it would be nice of the government to relax the current early withdrawal penalty from IRAs. Doubt it will happen, but I suppose it’s possible.


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## Luvtoride (Mar 22, 2020)

My bank just sent out a note stating that they will waive any CD early withdrawal penalties due to the financial impact of Covid-19. Obviously a small gesture but a good PR idea. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## VacationForever (Mar 22, 2020)

geekette said:


> I don't think they will change it and don't think they should change it.
> 
> Why would you want to be forced to remove more?   Don't lobby for that change.


I think he is thinking of asking to recalculate based on reduced amount, not more.  In 2009, RMD was deferred for a year because of the recession.


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## TravelTime (Mar 22, 2020)

Brett said:


> OK, it's not about market timing but having the ability to pick the highs and lows and "catching the ride" back up when it's obvious
> yes, being 100% invested in cash right now is a very good thing for you



This is market timing.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 22, 2020)

One thing we haven’t discussed when it comes to the market is even though the Fed and Treasury is trying everything possible to avoid a crash (which does not seem to be working), couldn’t all these demands for rescue cash potentially crash the government?

Actually, governments all over the world are getting lamb basted with bail out demands. This one is making the 2008 financial crash look like a play school party.

I suppose time will tell. I do see so many risks on so many levels here.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## pedro47 (Mar 22, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I think he is thinking of asking to recalculate based on reduced amount, not more.  In 2008, RMD was deferred for a year because of the recession.



Thanks you, that is what I was asking ?


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## VacationForever (Mar 22, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Thanks you, that is what I was asking ?


Info about the 2008/2009 deferral for a year is found here:




__





						Waiver of Required Minimum Distribution for 2009 - The New Retirement Dictionary
					

Denise Appleby, CISP, CRC, CRPS, CRSP, APA.




					retirementdictionary.com


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## Brett (Mar 22, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is market timing.




indeed it is.
some people believe they have the ability to pick the low and high points in the stock market and jump back in at the "right time"
They wish us long term "buy and holders" good luck

maybe we will need luck .... but I also periodically transfer money from equities to fixed income to mitigate that luck


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## geekette (Mar 22, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Another IRA question... for those that need to, it would be nice of the government to relax the current early withdrawal penalty from IRAs. Doubt it will happen, but I suppose it’s possible.


This is being discussed.   

There were already exceptions, including "for certain medical expenses", but we need it Lifted.


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## geekette (Mar 22, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I think he is thinking of asking to recalculate based on reduced amount, not more.  In 2009, RMD was deferred for a year because of the recession.


While I didn't know that, since I'm underage enough to have not noticed it, I think defer is quite different from recalc.   We are early in the year so I could see deferment being reasonable.   I don't see recalculation as workable.  As Of is a moving target, who gets to pick that date?


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## easyrider (Mar 22, 2020)

Tomorrow is going to be a bad morning. It might be better by close if the stimulus bill gets passed but because it didn't pass today tomorrow morning might be very bad.

Bill









						Stock Futures Got Crushed After the Senate Failed to Pass a Coronavirus Aid Package
					

The U.S. Senate failed to pass a trillion-dollar aid bill to combat coronavirus. Stock futures hit “limit down” as soon as they opened.




					www.barrons.com


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## VacationForever (Mar 22, 2020)

geekette said:


> While I didn't know that, since I'm underage enough to have not noticed it, I think defer is quite different from recalc.   We are early in the year so I could see deferment being reasonable.   I don't see recalculation as workable.  As Of is a moving target, who gets to pick that date?


Agree.  Recalculating won't work.


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 22, 2020)

I cannot bear to look anymore. I am glad we were not over-invested in the stock market. We were at about 57% stock to cash/bond 43%. Now that ratio has likely flipped but with a smaller total.   I am optimistic this will come back in 2 years. We are targeted to retire for a few more years so hope it will recover.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 22, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> I cannot bear to look anymore. I am glad we were not over-invested in the stock market. We were at about 57% stock to cash/bond 43%. Now that ratio has likely flipped but with a smaller total.  I am optimistic this will come back in 2 years. We are targeted to retire for a few more years so hope it will recover.



I am sorry you are losing your hard earned money when you expect to retire in the next couple of years. I still believe this situation will be solved in record time. This is because literally the world is working on it. Someone somewhere will find an answer. Once that happens, everything will Rocket up. Why? The panic caused things to rocket down. We are in serious oversold territory. 

You may be  now but soon will be  when a solution is found.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## dioxide45 (Mar 22, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> I cannot bear to look anymore. I am glad we were not over-invested in the stock market. We were at about 57% stock to cash/bond 43%. Now that ratio has likely flipped but with a smaller total.   I am optimistic this will come back in 2 years. We are targeted to retire for a few more years so hope it will recover.


I still haven't looked at our 401Ks. Not planning to, bu curiosity may get the best of me. We still have at least 20+ years to retirement, but it may still be hard to make it all back even in that long of a period of time. Of course, we will continue regular contributions through our pay, so IF the market goes back up, at least those will earn a return.


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## geekette (Mar 22, 2020)

I haven't looked at portfolio value, only transactions.  Like a bad day at work, it's nice to log in and see "who paid me today?"   I also compared price to 52 wk highs/lows to see that we really haven't slid much.

Back in record time?  well, any time we are back is a record, since this hasn't happened before.  

Rocket up?  yeah, I don't know about that.   It's gonna be what it's gonna be.


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## VacationForever (Mar 22, 2020)

I refuse to look at my portfolio.  If recovery takes 2 years, so be it.  Even if it takes 10 years, it is what it is.  We are just glad that my husband's RMD is the only thing in play as we do not need to dip into the overall portfolio other than maybe 50K over the next 2 years as we had some unplanned expenditure last year. We will survive this.


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## Luvtoride (Mar 22, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I refuse to look at my portfolio. If recovery takes 2 years, so be it. Even if it takes 10 years, it is what it is. We are just glad that my husband's RMD is the only thing in play as we do not need to dip into the overall portfolio other than maybe 50K over the next 2 years as we had some unplanned expenditure last year. We will survive this.



I hear you, it is hard to look. We had a call with our Financial Advisor yesterday (he hasn’t directed our current holdings) and I felt like I had to look at our 401k and IRA’s. although it hurt it wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be. I still have about 3 years until my planned retirement (my wife retired from the Healthcare field 7 months ago...luckily). I still feel confident that we will recover and We will redeploy some of our assets into insurance products (annuities) that will protect us from future market dives like this while giving up some upside potential. I’m just glad it happened now while we’re in the midst of planning our retirement. It is a sobering “real life” example of what can happen. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 22, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> I hear you, it is hard to look. We had a call with our Financial Advisor yesterday (he hasn’t directed our current holdings) and I felt like I had to look at our 401k and IRA’s. although it hurt it wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be. I still have about 3 years until my planned retirement (my wife retired from the Healthcare field 7 months ago...luckily). I still feel confident that we will recover and We will redeploy some of our assets into insurance products (annuities) that will protect us from future market dives like this while giving up some upside potential. I’m just glad it happened now while we’re in the midst of planning our retirement. It is a sobering “real life” example of what can happen.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



The one thing about life I love is it’s always full of challenges. Never boring. This is just another challenge.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## VacationForever (Mar 22, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> I hear you, it is hard to look. We had a call with our Financial Advisor yesterday (he hasn’t directed our current holdings) and I felt like I had to look at our 401k and IRA’s. although it hurt it wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be. I still have about 3 years until my planned retirement (my wife retired from the Healthcare field 7 months ago...luckily). I still feel confident that we will recover and We will redeploy some of our assets into insurance products (annuities) that will protect us from future market dives like this while giving up some upside potential. I’m just glad it happened now while we’re in the midst of planning our retirement. It is a sobering “real life” example of what can happen.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Good thinking on annuities.

When our FA advisor reached out to us last couple of weeks, I told him that my purchase of deferred fixed income annuities using all of my IRA in 2016 was done so that we did not put all eggs into one basket.  We had zero regrets when market kept going up, and now we are looking like geniuses.  Diversification is the key.


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## bogey21 (Mar 22, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> We will redeploy some of our assets into insurance products (annuities) that will protect us from future market dives like this while giving up some upside potential.



I have always been a big fan or annuities.  Everything I own is an annuity (Pension) but because of low interest rates I suspect they are a bad buy today...

George


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 22, 2020)

I was big on automatic stop loss triggers a few years ago because I didn't want to go through the roller coaster dives of 2001 and 2008 again. Ended up cashing out early during volatility in the early 2008 recovery so didn't set them again. Wish I had done so. Oh well, it will come back in time. We will be fine.

Two pundits that I respect say this will pass and the markets will rise again in the next 12 - 24 months.

Bear in mind that the 1918 pandemic preceded the roaring 20s


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 22, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> I was big on automatic stop loss triggers a few years ago because I didn't want to go through the roller coaster dives of 2001 and 2008 again. Ended up cashing out early during volatility in the early 2008 recovery so didn't set them again. Wish I had done so. Oh well it will come back in time. Two pundits that I respect say this will pass and the markets will rise again in the next 12 - 24 months.
> 
> Bear in mind that the 1918 pandemic preceded the roaring 20s.



Yes, one of my earlier posts showed the history of virus or disease scares. Mind you, I don’t think businesses were forced to close.

Although I see the travel industry badly hurt, I do see them getting bailed out. We can not afford to have (especially airlines) these core industries to fail. The bailouts they receive should tide them over and prepare for them to explode once this is over. 

I see timeshare companies fairing better than the traditional hotel systems. This is because they still get cash from owners. I assume owners will be able to extend their benefits until they can travel again. This will equate to an explosion of owners returning and spending money at the resorts. After all, they have been cooped up and will be yearning to spread their wings. 


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## SmithOp (Mar 22, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Bear in mind that the 1918 pandemic preceded the roaring 20s



People forget there was a US recession 1920-21 under President Harding, hang on for the ride.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## Brett (Mar 23, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> People forget there was a US recession 1920-21 under President Harding, hang on for the ride.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro




well, that's reassuring
1921 recession and 1918 pandemic before the GREAT Depression         .


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## pedro47 (Mar 23, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> People forget there was a US recession 1920-21 under President Harding, hang on for the ride.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro



We are hanging on for the ride.


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## pedro47 (Mar 23, 2020)

I feel the cruise lines industry will be the hardest industry to recover financially because  no future passengers   wants to be confined on a cruise ship for days out to sea or not knowing when  they are going home again. IMO.


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## Bucky (Mar 23, 2020)

easyrider said:


> Tomorrow is going to be a bad morning. It might be better by close if the stimulus bill gets passed but because it didn't pass today tomorrow morning might be very bad.
> 
> Bill
> 
> ...



Could do a 180 before the day is over though. The vote was party line which Unfortuneately is how everything is under this administration. The Republicans were heavy on bailing out businesses. The Democrats are heavy on bailing out individuals. I think they will come together very soon to pass something. The Democrats want to win the election this fall and they cannot afford to look like the bad guys on this.


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## Brett (Mar 23, 2020)

Bucky said:


> Could do a 180 before the day is over though. The vote was party line which Unfortuneately is how everything is under this administration. The Republicans were heavy on bailing out businesses. The Democrats are heavy on bailing out individuals. I think they will come together very soon to pass something. The Democrats want to win the election this fall and they cannot afford to look like the bad guys on this.



Or it could go 360 for another brutal day on the 'street'


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## Rolltydr (Mar 23, 2020)

Bucky said:


> The Democrats want to win the election this fall and they cannot afford to look like the bad guys on this.


I’m pretty sure this is true of the republicans, too. At some point, I wish both sides would put the nation’s interest above their own naked political interest. I know it will probably never happen but one can hope.


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## easyrider (Mar 23, 2020)

Bucky said:


> Could do a 180 before the day is over though. The vote was party line which Unfortuneately is how everything is under this administration. The Republicans were heavy on bailing out businesses. The Democrats are heavy on bailing out individuals. I think they will come together very soon to pass something. The Democrats want to win the election this fall and they cannot afford to look like the bad guys on this.



We are walking a thin line here regarding the *NO POLITICS ON TUG* dealio. 

Hopefully things will sort out sooner than later. I think this market plunge and new quarantine hurts everyone in some ways but really hurts young families the most. My youngest son has a mortgage and all the bills of owning a house, he is off work for a month if not longer, his wife is a waitress at a closed restaurant and this is the situation of many people in their thirties.

Anyway, lets try to keep politics out of this thread because that would close it very fast.

Thanks

Bill


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## Bucky (Mar 23, 2020)

Brett said:


> Or it could go 360 for another brutal day on the 'street'



Spot on. Actually turned green for awhile until the second vote on the stimulus was negative. My prediction is it gets passed tonight and the market gaps up in the morning. Or, they don’t and we stay put! 



Rolltydr said:


> I’m pretty sure this is true of the republicans, too. At some point, I wish both sides would put the nation’s interest above their own naked political interest. I know it will probably never happen but one can hope.



Agreed 100% but that’s not going to happen with this administration. Maybe if we can get one party to win everything, but not until then IMO. Sad days from when I grew up.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 23, 2020)

I still can’t get my head around the money needed to sustain things. Perhaps, I need to think in terms that this is just play money and all the government has to do is add some zeros in a computer and voila. 


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## Bucky (Mar 23, 2020)

easyrider said:


> We are walking a thin line here regarding the *NO POLITICS ON TUG* dealio.
> 
> Hopefully things will sort out sooner than later. I think this market plunge and new quarantine hurts everyone in some ways but really hurts young families the most. My youngest son has a mortgage and all the bills of owning a house, he is off work for a month if not longer, his wife is a waitress at a closed restaurant and this is the situation of many people in their thirties.
> 
> ...



Discussing almost anything nowadays almost always brings politics into the discussion, especially a financial thread which is being driven by everyday current events. I believe as long as we live in a glass house we shouldn’t throw rocks but to expect us to not play with them at all is a stretch!


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 23, 2020)

Yes, unfortunately, governments have and do play a role in the markets because of how unprecedented this situation is.

I was reading back on past financial crisis and no where, so far, have I found a time when businesses just shut down. Can anyone find a time when this has happened?

Moving forward after covid 19, I wonder what would be in place to limit the damage to the markets? It is possible that a virus like this one comes again and hopefully we will be better prepared.

I do feel sorry for the many folks who rely on an income and will experience hardship over what’s happening. One thing I remember when my grandpa said when I was very little was that a depression taught him to always save a bit bit more emergencies. Maybe a situation like this will reinforce that thought....even if it is only 25 dollars a month.


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## Rolltydr (Mar 23, 2020)

Bucky said:


> Spot on. Actually turned green for awhile until the second vote on the stimulus was negative. My prediction is it gets passed tonight and the market gaps up in the morning. Or, they don’t and we stay put!
> 
> 
> 
> Agreed 100% but that’s not going to happen with this administration. Maybe if we can get one party to win everything, but not until then IMO. Sad days from when I grew up.



Yep, I’m old enough to remember when they would go out to dinner and drinks together. Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill were good friends. It’s ridiculous how they act now.


Harry


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## Rolltydr (Mar 23, 2020)

I’m keeping my comments non-partisan which I think is the problem. A pox on both their houses.


Harry


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## dioxide45 (Mar 23, 2020)

Bucky said:


> Discussing almost anything nowadays almost always brings politics into the discussion,


It certainly doesn't have to be that way.


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## easyrider (Mar 23, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Maybe a situation like this will reinforce that thought....even if it is only 25 dollars a month.



Most of the people I worked with when I started out in the construction trades were old union guys that remembered the Great Depression. They said that to really be thankful for a job was to not have a job. These guys had a work motto about being thankful for their jobs. Besides teaching me the trades they also taught me to be grateful for our jobs. I guess that is where we are heading now.

Bill


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## bogey21 (Mar 23, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I still can’t get my head around the money needed to sustain things. Perhaps, I need to think in terms that this is just play money and all the government has to do is add some zeros in a computer and voila.



The day is going to come when interest rates get back to historic norms at which time some 25% to 50% of the Government's revenue will be needed to service the debt.  Maybe not in my lifetime, but it will happen...

George


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## Brett (Mar 23, 2020)

easyrider said:


> We are walking a thin line here regarding the *NO POLITICS ON TUG* dealio.
> 
> Hopefully things will sort out sooner than later. I think this market plunge and new quarantine hurts everyone in some ways but really hurts young families the most. My youngest son has a mortgage and all the bills of owning a house, he is off work for a month if not longer, his wife is a waitress at a closed restaurant and this is the situation of many people in their thirties.
> 
> ...



OK, no politics
stock markets plunged again today   ....  the "_*plunger"*_ is getting quite a workout lately
hope it doesn't break


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## bluehende (Mar 23, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> The day is going to come when interest rates get back to historic norms at which time some 25% to 50% of the Government's revenue will be needed to service the debt.  Maybe not in my lifetime, but it will happen...
> 
> George


  With all this stimulus being funded by debt that the rate is determined by open markets it could be closer than you think.  No one knows how we will come out of this.


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## Icc5 (Mar 23, 2020)

Icc5 said:


> Both my wife and I have pensions from being Retail Clerks in the groceries business with 42 and 43 years in.  We've always saved,with 401k's and Roth's.  I had several stocks before we got married and most are dividend payers.  The stock portfolio is a decent amount.  Recently I inherited some money and decided to put it in bonds that are both state and federal tax exempt and I draw SS from retiring 7 years ago at 62.
> Yes, luck has played a part as our pensions are much better then what people earn now.  We did give up higher wages for years so more money went into the pension plan.  Some of my stocks turned out way better then I could have ever dreamed.  Because of the above we've been able to do whatever we want plus help our kids.  It also helped that we paid off our house about 20 years ago.
> We feel blessed and lucky we each bought our first houses right after college before Silicon Valley became what it is today.  Hard savings and lots of overtime even while going to college full time has made a huge difference for today.  I gave up my time and freedom then to have a better life today.
> Don't so much feel it's bragging but I am proud of what we have accomplished.  I only hope my kids realize the sacrifices to make life better for them too.
> Bart


On my stock fund it currently is running about the same as the DOW, down about 35%.  Haven't even looked at our Roth's or 401k's.  I'll just wait for those statements to come.  So far only one of the companies I'm invested in has stopped their dividend.  Just sticking with things as at least up to now I've never had to dip into any of it.  Only time will tell.


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## pedro47 (Mar 24, 2020)

Today was an overall good day for the stock market. Can it continue?


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## dioxide45 (Mar 24, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Today was an overall good day for the stock market. Can it continue?


Perhaps. The problem is the market is being swayed by politics right now. So anything can happen.


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## VacationForever (Mar 24, 2020)

I finally logged in.  We are "only" down 22%, and it will take 28% increase to get back to where we were...  in the meantime, we hope we have seen the bottom.


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## vikingsholm (Mar 24, 2020)

Here is an interesting article about the normal path of the past few bear market crashes and aftermath recoveries, and if this one roughly follows the past few, what to expect:



			https://seekingalpha.com/article/4333870-technically-speaking-one-thing-playing-bear-market-rally
		


This website contains writeups by many different authors, most of whom are involved professionally in the market one way or another. On any given day, you'll find a wide range of opinions and perspectives that vary and contradict each other greatly. The reader comments on these articles are often useful too, as many of them are laymen, but seem to be active investors who follow the market.

This article that I linked is one that I would put some belief in normally. Typically, markets don't bounce back immediately from a crash scenario, but have a short but sharp relief rally, followed by more gradual down movement, then recover at different paces in the long run depending on what caused the drop initially. This market was already overextended and especially with corporate debt, so was just waiting for the pin to pop it. Coronavirus was a sharper than usual pin.

However, the amount and types of QE being rolled out by the Fed and the stimulus from Congress are rather unprecedented, so that throws a definite curveball into the discussion. As do the unknowns with how well we will follow social distancing nationally, how that will impact recovery from the virus, and whether any medical treatments will surface in the shorter term that actually have an impact. So it's really anybody's guess as to what may happen, though I do believe that patterns of behavior in the market tend to rhyme, though not repeat.

Here are a few other factors that I've come across in my readings the past few days, some of which aren't too surprising, and others that may be:

- All assets including normal safe harbors were being sold during the crash, often to cover margin in other areas or raise needed cash. So stocks, bonds, and precious metals all sold off.

- Long bonds/treasuries would normally have seen their interest rates go down as people fled to them for safety. But the market for them was strange and illiquid, and the demand did not raise to the point where the interest rates were going down, instead they went up. I read that it actually got to a somewhat dangerous point where the Fed had to jump in with far more than normal purchases of treasuries to stabilize the market. Just repeating what I read here - I don't work in this field, to know enough for sure.

- There were some very technical articles I read by traders and analysts from wall street firms, but didn't really understand. But the gist was that things got pretty out of control for even the professionals with the speed of the drop, and a lot of the extreme measures that the Fed took were considered pretty necessary and important to stabilize things in the short term.

- While there may be a pullback from today's upward jolt, there is also a quarter end rebalancing that will take place at the end of March. Since many funds sold off stocks during the crash this month, there may be a batch of repurchasing of stock that will boost the market towards the end of the month too.

One other thing being posited is that all the QE and money spraying will likely lead to precious metals becoming a more favored safe haven again (after the recent sell off). I took a speculative position a few days ago anticipating this, and I expect it will go on for awhile, as gold and silver caught some large bids the past few days.


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## Brett (Mar 24, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> Perhaps. The problem is the market is being swayed by politics right now. So anything can happen.




the stock market is swayed by unemployment numbers, forecast of company earnings and revenue, interest rates, inflation rate,  tax rates, emotions, government debt, and
yes ................ _ "politics"_


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## Rolltydr (Mar 24, 2020)

Explainer: Trump has little power to restart U.S. economy
					

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he wants the U.S. economy to reopen by Easter Sunday, April 12, despite the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus in some U.S. states and a rising death toll from the disease.




					www.reuters.com


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## Luvtoride (Mar 24, 2020)

Vikings,
Very good analysis. I’ve been reading a lot these days too and agree with much of what you stated. There will definitely be winners out of all this as some great companies have been sold off and will undoubtedly recover. Rather than trying to pick individual companies stocks I’m looking at moving money into a couple of good mutual funds where the professionals can do that better than I and diversify the portfolio. Much better chance for success I think.
Good luck to all. Hang on for the ride, it’s a long way from being over! 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## pedro47 (Mar 24, 2020)

It is coming to take Many, many years before the stock market return IMHO.


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## geekette (Mar 24, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> It is coming to take Many, many years before the stock market return IMHO.


Returns from what?  Most companies aren't even below their 52 week low!


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## VacationForever (Mar 24, 2020)

geekette said:


> Returns from what?  Most companies aren't even below their 52 week low!


??? Stock indices are almost back to 2016 level.


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## geekette (Mar 24, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> ??? Stock indices are almost back to 2016 level.


Indexes are not companies.  Look at Companies, not aggregations.


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## bogey21 (Mar 24, 2020)

Icc5 said:


> Both my wife and I have pensions from being Retail Clerks in the groceries business with 42 and 43 years in...  We did give up higher wages for years so more money went into the pension plan.



I too have a good pension and I (and others who retired with me) also gave up higher wages to get it.  In our case we agreed to significantly lower wage increases (like 1%)  for about 8 years in exchange for enhanced pensions...

George


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## dioxide45 (Mar 24, 2020)

geekette said:


> Indexes are not companies.  Look at Companies, not aggregations.


Don't companies make up indexes? So if looking at certain few companies, those may not be below their 52 week low. However overall more would have to be under than are over if the indexes are under.


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## Brett (Mar 24, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> Don't companies make up indexes? So if looking at certain few companies, those may not be below their 52 week low. However overall more would have to be under than are over if the indexes are under.




right, obviously most companies are below their 52 week low's


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## bluehende (Mar 24, 2020)

Brett said:


> right, obviously most companies are below their 52 week low's


  By definition it is hard to be below your current 52 week low.  Now compare the price now to the 52 week low that would have been reported 2 weeks ago and you would be hard pressed to find many that are not below that.  I assume a couple may be thriving for some specific reason.  I am very dubious of the latest rally.  It looks like a classic bear trap.  Most of the biggest days come in the midst of a bear market.  I bought protection today for my QQQ positions by buying the SQQQ.  I will take that protection off if the market retraces 50% of todays gain.  At this time I do not have a target on the upset to remove it.   You can guess what my weakness in trading is.  Yep limiting my loss when the market goes against me.


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## geekette (Mar 24, 2020)

oop, yep, that could certainly be true by now, but I was looking periodically as the sinking was happening, including 2 weeks ago, but apparently not on the bloodiest day, whichever that was.  I'm a long holder and unconcerned by the "paint em all with doom brush" the fear factor is bringing.  

A year ago SO was $52, today it's $49.  PG was $101 a year ago, today $103.  KMB was $121 4/5/19, today is $117.    These are not significant changes.  

The earnings reports will be of more interest to me than stock price.


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## Brett (Mar 25, 2020)

geekette said:


> oop, yep, that could certainly be true by now, but I was looking periodically as the sinking was happening, including 2 weeks ago, but apparently not on the bloodiest day, whichever that was.  I'm a long holder and unconcerned by the "paint em all with doom brush" the fear factor is bringing.
> 
> A year ago SO was $52, today it's $49.  PG was $101 a year ago, today $103.  KMB was $121 4/5/19, today is $117.    These are not significant changes.
> 
> The earnings reports will be of more interest to me than stock price.



*your* stocks may have done well these past few weeks but the average over the past year ....


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## Bucky (Mar 25, 2020)

It is what it is!

i must admit that I did get back in today but not because I think we have reached the bottom. Don’t think we will see the bottom until the numbers turn. When there are fewer cases and deaths worldwide on a daily basis then the market will stabilize IMO. 

I invested in about 10 different mutuals, basically the same ones I was in prior to bailing. Much easier for me to pick sectors than individual stocks. It worked very well for us in the past so I see no reason to change.

Now that the stimulus has been agreed to I wouldn’t be surprised to see it down today. The old adage buy on the rumor and sell on the news could come into play. From 5:30 this morning to 7:00 I’ve seen the futures go from +700 to -25!


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## geekette (Mar 25, 2020)

Brett said:


> *your* stocks may have done well these past few weeks but the average over the past year ....
> 
> View attachment 18236



Ok, but how are you over 5 or 10 years?   The fall is from a very high mountain.  Companies were making record profits, most everything was bid up well into overvalued territory. 

A short term investor may have been wiped out but the long term investors are still solid.

Part of the reason I don't buy funds is that herd mentality moves them.   It's co-ownership, where demands to sell force the manager's hand when they don't have the cash to satisfy all the sellers.   Since I stay put, no co-owner forcing my hand, I don't have to lock in losses and have to "get back" anything.  Still same number of shares.  In most cases, same dividend.


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## Ironwood (Mar 25, 2020)

Nice bounce yesterday, hopefully off the bottom, but the next few weeks will tell.  I was cheering one stock in my retirement account up 22% at the close, then looked at the chart only to realize it's still 50% off it's peak 6 weeks ago and I'm still well underwater on this one.....it's going to be a long way back on some of my holdings.


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## PigsDad (Mar 25, 2020)

Bucky said:


> Now that the stimulus has been agreed to I wouldn’t be surprised to see it down today. The old adage buy on the rumor and sell on the news could come into play. From 5:30 this morning to 7:00 I’ve seen the futures go from +700 to -25!


That was my prediction as well, but with the Dow being up over 1,100 right now, I'm glad we were both wrong!

Kurt


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## Passepartout (Mar 25, 2020)

Another TUGger described the bounce as a 'Bear Trap'. I'm still comfortably bathing in the cash pond.


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## PigsDad (Mar 25, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Another TUGger described the bounce as a 'Bear Trap'. I'm still comfortably bathing in the cash pond.


Could very well be.  I wouldn't be surprised at a 15K Dow in the near future.  Hope I'm wrong, but...

Kurt


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## easyrider (Mar 25, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Could very well be.  I wouldn't be surprised at a 15K Dow in the near future.  Hope I'm wrong, but...
> 
> Kurt



I was listening to Harry Dent saying the market will be toast and because of demographics it will take decades for it to return. Harry also says real estate every where will tank as boomers die off. Kind of interesting. I don't totally agree with Harry but I do agree with Richard on many things.


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## T-Dot-Traveller (Mar 25, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Another TUGger described the bounce as a 'Bear Trap'. I'm still comfortably bathing in the cash pond.



remember too  - the “dead cat bounce “ is coming .

******
when the news described the market as “cratering “ the other day - I figured the current 
generation of market news writers were combing old headlines for new / old descriptive verbs .


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## Luvtoride (Mar 26, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> My FA did a bunch of puts in early February which have proven to be a god send. He said he saw “cracks” in the economy and wanted to hedge. Now, he is starting to think on buying calls.
> 
> Boy, finding a great FA is like finding a gold mine.
> 
> ...



Fred,
Interestingly, I looked at my Merrill Lynch account today which also includes a total “NET Worth” section based on inputting all of your “other assets” and liabilities so you see a total picture. 

For the 3 months thru yesterday that figure is down about 11.5% (not as bad as I thought).
I then did the compare for 12 months. I’m basically at break even from where I was at 4/1/19. Now granted that Includes new money that went in, primarily 401k contributions and matches from our employers but I was very surprised. The huge “growth” which we had experienced until last month was all “paper gains” as these are paper losses now. 

There is definitely some hope for optimism for a good climb back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 26, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> Fred,
> Interestingly, I looked at my Merrill Lynch account today which also includes a total “NET Worth” section based on inputting all of your “other assets” and liabilities so you see a total picture.
> 
> For the 3 months thru yesterday that figure is down about 11.5% (not as bad as I thought).
> ...



I think so. We are in day 3 of a rise and that’s with a 3.2 million job claims number. It’s kind of like TP. Panic always makes things worse and people overdue things. BTW, the purchase of TP has subsided.

I knew the US government would step in. I knew the economy was well before this. I know the world researchers are on it. They will find a solution. We know from other nations, this thing does subside (numbers down in China). 

Frankly, the only people who got smoked were those on margin.
They were forced to sell causing a blip down.

That is not to say though that we still may have market turbulence here and there. However, once the weak holders are out and shares are in stronger hands, and this issues subsides, I think we are in for huge gains. I just think you have to stomach the violatility.

In short, I’ve been buying when panic is the highest and I think, over the long haul, it will pay off nicely. 


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## pedro47 (Mar 26, 2020)

The American economy and the stock market were doing very well. Until an atomic bomb was drop in China called the Coronavirus . The mushroom now have spread over the world and to 144 countries.


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## Brett (Mar 26, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I think so. We are in day 3 of a rise and that’s with a 3.2 million job claims number. It’s kind of like TP. Panic always makes things worse and people overdue things. BTW, the purchase of TP has subsided.
> 
> I knew the US government would step in. I knew the economy was well before this. I know the world researchers are on it. They will find a solution. We know from other nations, this thing does subside (numbers down in China).
> 
> ...




OK, so you are expecting HUGE stock market gains ... at some point in the future.
Please tell us a day or two before the HUGE gains occur  ....  much thx


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## pedro47 (Mar 26, 2020)

This is the time to put politics aside and for Congress do the right thing for people of the whole United States of America.


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## Brett (Mar 26, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> This is the time to put politics aside and for Congress do the right thing for people of the whole United States of America.




 I suppose it depends on your definition of the "right thing for the people"


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## VacationForever (Mar 26, 2020)

Please don't go there and get this thread shut down.


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## Brett (Mar 26, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Please don't go there and get this thread shut down.




I'm not sure where you think it's going. 
This thread is about whether one believes the stock market is going up or down in the near future. 
or a buying opportunity ... or keep the cash


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## VacationForever (Mar 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> I'm not sure where you think it's going.
> This thread is about whether one believes the stock market is going up or down in the near future.
> or a buying opportunity ... or keep the cash


You know you have been bad "I suppose it depends on your definition of the "right thing for the people"  "


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## Brett (Mar 26, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> You know you have been bad "I suppose it depends on your definition of the "right thing for the people"  "



  the "right thing"  ???? 
I honestly don't know what the poster thought was the "right thing" and it's relation to the stock market


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## PigsDad (Mar 26, 2020)

easyrider said:


> Harry also says real estate every where will tank *as boomers die off*.


Was this just the natural, long term die off of the boomers as they age out, or was he saying there would be a significant die off just due to COVID-19?  Just curious.

Kurt


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## PigsDad (Mar 26, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I think so. We are in day 3 of a rise and that’s with a 3.2 million job claims number. It’s kind of like TP. Panic always makes things worse and people overdue things. BTW, the purchase of TP has subsided.


TP is still very scarce around here, but it can be found first thing as stores open up for a little while usually.  However, haven't see basic staples like canned veggies, soup, flour, sugar, rice and bean on any shelf for the last couple of weeks.



> I knew the US government would step in. I knew the economy was well before this. I know the world researchers are on it. They will find a solution. We know from other nations, this thing does subside (numbers down in China).
> 
> Frankly, the only people who got smoked were those on margin.
> They were forced to sell causing a blip down.
> ...


I don't know about huge gains, as I think this struck a deep blow to the economy and it is going to be slow to recover.  But recover it will; just a matter of how long it will take.

I continue with my automatic investments, but I haven't stepped up those as, frankly, I'm keeping a larger emergency cash fund.  I think that is a prudent plan for me.

Kurt


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## davidvel (Mar 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> OK, so you are expecting HUGE stock market gains ... at some point in the future.
> Please tell us a day or two before the HUGE gains occur  ....  much thx


Time will tell if it hit bottom.  If it did, for those who continued to buy as it fell, those gains are coming now. If not, those huge gains will come later, but surely they will.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 26, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> TP is still very scarce around here, but it can be found first thing as stores open up for a little while usually. However, haven't see basic staples like canned veggies, soup, flour, sugar, rice and bean on any shelf for the last couple of weeks.
> 
> 
> I don't know about huge gains, as I think this struck a deep blow to the economy and it is going to be slow to recover. But recover it will; just a matter of how long it will take.
> ...



Having Emergency cash is always smart, Kurt. That way, you aren’t forced to sell anything cheap. Heaven knows, we don’t want anyone forced to pawn their watch or wedding ring for 5 bucks.

Frankly, it’s debt that kills folks. The sooner one is free of debt, the better. 


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## VacationForever (Mar 26, 2020)

We have decided to make use of the RMD waiver provision in the stimulus bill.  However we still need to sell something by mid-year to cover what would have been the RMD withdrawal.  No one knows what the market will do in the coming months.


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## Ironwood (Mar 26, 2020)

These past three days may be a dead cat bounce, only time will tell, but 20-30% up from Mondays close in some sectors is welcome.  I just sold two holdings near the high for the day to sell into the rally....still well below B/E on both, so I will look to buy back in lower on the next sell off....or shift into something else.  You have to be nimble in this, and that's easier said than done.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 26, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> We have decided to make use of the RMD waiver provision in the stimulus bill. However we still need to sell something by mid-year to cover what would have been the RMD withdrawal. No one knows what the market will do in the coming months.



True. It takes time to repair the damage. How long is anyone’s guess. I’m sorry you have to liquidate anything. 

I have been reading about the impacts in Las Vegas. I find, sadly, Vegas is very badly hurt when the economy has shocks. The layoffs there are going to be brutal. That said, on a financial front, this may be the time to buy up properties after the full impact happens. Vegas is always one place that recovers nicely when economies turn around.


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## easyrider (Mar 26, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Was this just the natural, long term die off of the boomers as they age out, or was he saying there would be a significant die off just due to COVID-19?  Just curious.
> 
> Kurt



His assumption is that the boomers have been dying off and since they are a huge group, with many in the group owning property, property prices will decline as the boomers sell off their properties creating a housing surplus. He also thinks stocks are heading down and it will take decades for prices to come back to the highs. Basically, Harry says it is time to sell your house and stocks. The one thing with Harry Dent is he is a writer as much as he is a financial "expert". Many of the things he says are to sell books, imo. Same goes for Robert Kiyosaki in some ways.

Bill


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## pittle (Mar 26, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> We have decided to make use of the RMD waiver provision in the stimulus bill.  However we still need to sell something by mid-year to cover what would have been the RMD withdrawal.  No one knows what the market will do in the coming months.


We have already taken our RMD out for this year - plus some extra because the markets were really up in January.

We have enough emergency cash in a safe to keep us going for quite a while.  For several years, we have both gotten extra money out of the ATM to build that fund - so it is mostly in 20"s, but we do have smaller bills.  As hubs says, if someone does not have change for a $20, we will be OK with no change, but how many folks will have change for a $50 or $100 bill in a crisis? (Actually, at the first of the year I counted it and we took some back to the bank to put into our savings account - we had way too much just sitting at home!)

In 2016, we made the decision to stop going out to eat weekly, buy fewer clothes, and take fewer (but longer) vacations.   We still did 6-8 weeks a year, but just went fewer times to save on airfare. All the money not spent on these things was put into the savings account.  We also took out more than the RMD, paid taxes on it and added that to the savings account. This account now has 2 years of monthly expenses in it. So, now we can just sit it out and wait and see how it goes.  

But, I will say that it was a shame that we did not start doing this until we were close to 70.  We just kept the money in the IRA or bank accounts.  After watching the natural disasters and how people did not have cash to pay for things when they had to evacuate, we decided that we needed to have some cash available.  I'm glad that we have it now.


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## Luvtoride (Mar 26, 2020)

Phyllis, I understand the need for having available funds for living so you don't need to liquidate investments during down markets like this, but where is the need for CASH in the safe coming from?  There is no issue with getting cash from banks and most folks don't even use cash much anymore....they use debit cards or credit cards that are paid off in full each month.  I think we are a long way off from the banks and financial system being that precarious that the banks and the FDIC insurance would be at risk.  Have you had a financial advisor helping you to structure your assets in a way to avoid selling in a crisis or paying more than you should in taxes?


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## Brett (Mar 26, 2020)

pittle said:


> We have already taken our RMD out for this year - plus some extra because the markets were really up in January.
> 
> We have enough emergency cash in a safe to keep us going for quite a while.  For several years, we have both gotten extra money out of the ATM to build that fund - so it is mostly in 20"s, but we do have smaller bills.  As hubs says, if someone does not have change for a $20, we will be OK with no change, but how many folks will have change for a $50 or $100 bill in a crisis? (Actually, at the first of the year I counted it and we took some back to the bank to put into our savings account - we had way too much just sitting at home!)
> 
> ...



I would also question the need for physical paper cash.  Do you think that the financial system will collapse and ATM's and credit cards won't work?
I carry almost no paper cash, I pay everything online or through credit cards


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## easyrider (Mar 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> I would also question the need for physical paper cash.  Do you think that the financial system will collapse and ATM's and credit cards won't work?
> I carry almost no paper cash, I pay everything online or through credit cards



I don't use much cash either but usually keep some around. I like air miles so we use our credit card. The kids in our family all use venmo. I haven't tried this yet but I think its about time.

Bill


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> I would also question the need for physical paper cash. Do you think that the financial system will collapse and ATM's and credit cards won't work?
> I carry almost no paper cash, I pay everything online or through credit cards



No, I don’t think the financial system will crash BUT I am not sure about inflation/deflation. With all this borrowing going on worldwide to prop up the economy, something has got to give. 


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## pittle (Mar 26, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> Phyllis, I understand the need for having available funds for living so you don't need to liquidate investments during down markets like this, but where is the need for CASH in the safe coming from?  There is no issue with getting cash from banks and most folks don't even use cash much anymore....they use debit cards or credit cards that are paid off in full each month.  I think we are a long way off from the banks and financial system being that precarious that the banks and the FDIC insurance would be at risk.  Have you had a financial advisor helping you to structure your assets in a way to avoid selling in a crisis or paying more than you should in taxes?



I am not worried about the financial institutions being that precarious either.  We have been retired for 18 & 20 years living off of savings and IRA. Our guy is awesome.

I use ATM and credit cards a lot, but when I have to spend real cash, I think about it more.   It is so easy to spend more than you plan to when using the cards.  Some months, I am surprised at how much the two of us have spent when that bills come in.

Before we started  a specific Savings Account, hubs started collecting cash because he had specific things that he knew that we would need for - things like new tires, car repairs, grandson's graduation, etc.   He just did not want to pay for those things with a CC, he started saving cash.  The cash could be deposited in the bank when we needed to spend it.  He got so that he liked having some cash available.

We lived in Tornado Alley for 30+ years and when things get blown away in one part of town, all the power is off everywhere so no ATM's work.  Once when the power lines broke from ice storm - hubs was able to buy a generator with cash (from the safe) at a farm store that had no power either. The manager had opened because they did know how to make a sales transactions without the cash register.


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## DavidnRobin (Mar 26, 2020)

The stock market is only one part of the Economy. Most Americans are not directly invested in the stock market. Those with wealth are involved in the stock market with the wealthiest more involved. People who own TimeShares are also more likely to be invested in the stock market since many had the finances that allowed them to buy TSs (hopefully).

Things like GDP, Inflation, USD Value, and Deficit/Debt are also part (gauges) of the Economy.

The economy is not working well for the jobless, homeless, in debt, or living paycheck to paycheck (etc.)


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 26, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> The stock market is only one part of the Economy. Most Americans are not directly invested in the stock market. Those with wealth are involved in the stock market with the wealthiest more involved. People who own TimeShares are also more likely to be invested in the stock market since many had the finances that allowed them to buy TSs (hopefully).
> 
> Things like GDP, Inflation, USD Value, and Deficit/Debt are also part (gauges) of the Economy.
> 
> ...



I dont think the economy has ever worked well for the jobless, homeless, in debt or living paycheque to paycheque. That’s why we have a class structure where it’s hard to move up the ranks...


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 26, 2020)

So far I’m glad I bought a further 5 k shares of WYND at 15.00 even on the dip. Just adding to my dividends for vacation.

So far, purchased

3500 at 36.75
1500 at 27.50
5000 at 15 even

Dividends currently at .50 a quarter. They may temporarily go down but I see a rise.

Price now at around 25 a share.

Still see this as a great, long term investment and dividends paying for the vacations. 


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## pedro47 (Mar 26, 2020)

Now is the time to purchase quality stocks for long term investments. IMO.


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## Brett (Mar 26, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Now is the time to purchase quality stocks for long term investments. IMO.




OK ... assuming one doesn't have to sell quality stocks to obtain the cash to purchase other quality stocks


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## VacationForever (Mar 26, 2020)

We just got off a phone call with our FA.  We had emailed him earlier today to stop RMD distribution for the rest of the year and how we will need to liquidate a small amount from a taxable account in the second half of the year.  He is bullish about stock market recovery in the 2nd half of this year.  Time will tell.


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## rickandcindy23 (Mar 26, 2020)

I would like to see credit card interest rates decrease, as a result of this poor economy.  I would like to see them lower the rates from 22% to about 5% for people who owe money and cannot get caught up.  This isn't a position I am in, but I see it as a major roadblock for many low-middle income people.


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## Brett (Mar 26, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> I would like to see credit card interest rates decrease, as a result of this poor economy.  I would like to see them lower the rates from 22% to about 5% for people who owe money and cannot get caught up.  This isn't a position I am in, but I see it as a major roadblock for many low-middle income people.




Low interest rates are good for borrowers but most credit card interest rates are not like CD's, bond or mortgage rates.
most credit card rates are not directly dependent on short term market interest rates


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## dioxide45 (Mar 26, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> I would like to see credit card interest rates decrease, as a result of this poor economy.  I would like to see them lower the rates from 22% to about 5% for people who owe money and cannot get caught up.  This isn't a position I am in, but I see it as a major roadblock for many low-middle income people.


Most people likely have flexible rate credit cards, meaning they move with the fed funds rate. The fed funds rate was as high as 2.5% in December 2019 and 2.25% in mid 2019. It is now down to 0%-0.25%. So those with flexible rate cards have seen a decrease of 2%-2.5% in their rate. Of course, no where close to the 5% you mention.


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## DavidnRobin (Mar 26, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I dont think the economy has ever worked well for the jobless, homeless, in debt or living paycheque to paycheque. That’s why we have a class structure where it’s hard to move up the ranks...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I don’t disagree - I was commenting that the economy is more than just the stock market. Income inequality is also currently at the highest mark in modern history.

btw - the overall economy was strong in 2016, and the stock market from during the previous administration was similar (%-wise) to the current administration prior to Covid.









						Stock Market Performance by President
					

This interactive chart shows the running percentage gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by Presidential term.  Each series begins with the closing value of the month of inauguration and runs to the closing value of the last month of the term.  The y-axis shows the total percentage increase...




					www.macrotrends.net
				




And the previous admin had a reduction of unemployment from 10% to 4.5%, whereas the current admin went from 4.5% to 3.5%. (approximately)









						Unemployment rate in the U.S. 2021 | Statista
					

In 1990, the unemployment rate of the United States stood at 5.6 percent.




					www.statista.com
				




Then there is the Federal Deficit/Debt...









						U.S. Budget Deficit by President
					

Here are the budget deficits for each president back to Woodrow Wilson. Obama had the highest dollar increase, but Wilson had the biggest percentage rise.




					www.thebalance.com
				












						US Debt by President: Dollar and Percentage
					

Depending on how you measure it, different presidents have added to the national debt. Check out how the national debt has increased by year and president.




					www.thebalance.com
				




These are facts - not rhetoric.


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## Brett (Mar 26, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> I don’t disagree - I was commenting that the economy is more than just the stock market. Income inequality is also currently at the highest mark in modern history.
> 
> btw - the overall economy was strong in 2016, and the stock market from during the previous administration was similar (%-wise) to the current administration prior to Covid.
> 
> ...




I get it.
But on this timeshare website you cannot indicate "which president had the most federal debt"
or which president that had the "best stock market performance"

or probably even say that the economy is more than the "stock market"   ......
sorry, that isn't allowed here -  TUG rules:   potentially socially contentious issues -


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## TravelTime (Mar 26, 2020)

The Wall Street Journal says we just entered a new bull market! LOL It makes a good headline. Maybe people will read news like this and jump back in, making it a self fulfilling prophecy. Personally, I am least worried about the stock market and most worried about the unemployment rates, businesses going bankrupt and how so many people will be defaulting on rent, mortgages, etc. The complete shut down of the economy will cause a possible depression. The stock market will start coming back once the virus stabilizes and well before the worst is over. By 2009, the stock market was already climbing even though the worst of the Great Recession was not over for several years after that.

--------

Dow Escapes Bear Market With a 6% Rally
The blue-chip index is now up 20% from its low, qualifying as a new bull market
By Caitlin McCabe, Anna Hirtenstein and Chong Koh Ping
Updated March 26, 2020 5:31 pm ET

U.S. stocks soared Thursday as the government came closer to approving a $2 trillion stimulus package to combat the coronavirus pandemic, capping a three-day rally that has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average into a bull market.

The Dow industrials finished the day up 1351.62 points, or 6.4%, to close at 22,552.17. The jump ends an 11-trading day bear market for the index—the shortest in history for the Dow—which reached its bear-market low just three days ago.

The rapid plunge out of, and then back into, a bull market underscores just how volatile U.S. stocks have become as the coronavirus pandemic ripples through the economy. The Dow industrials are still down 21% for the year, despite also climbing 21% in the last three days—the largest three-day percentage gain for the index since 1931.....

Read more here:








						Dow Rallies 6.4% After Stimulus Vote
					

The Dow industrials rose more than 1,300 points, putting it 20% above its recent low and back into bull-market territory, despite unemployment claims soaring in a fresh sign of the economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic.




					www.wsj.com


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## Brett (Mar 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> The Wall Street Journal says we just entered a new bull market! LOL It makes a good headline. Maybe people may read news like this and jump back in, making it a self fulfilling prophecy. Personally, I am least worried about the stock market and most worried about the unemployment rates, businesses going bankrupt and how so many people will be defaulting on rent, mortgages, etc. The complete shut down of the economy will cause a possible depression. The stock market will start coming back once the virus stabilizes and well before the worst is over. By 2009, the stock market was already climbing even though the worst of the Great Recession was not over for several years after that.
> 
> --------
> 
> ...




GREAT news !
I look forward to the raging bull market rally


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## Luvtoride (Mar 26, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> I would like to see credit card interest rates decrease, as a result of this poor economy.  I would like to see them lower the rates from 22% to about 5% for people who owe money and cannot get caught up.  This isn't a position I am in, but I see it as a major roadblock for many low-middle income people.


As "nice" a gesture as that is, it just won't happen.  I believe the only relief that some of these companies may provide is elimination of late payment charges and some interest charges to those who can't pay their bills due to financial hardship of losing jobs and income during this time.


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## Fredflintstone (Mar 26, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> As "nice" a gesture as that is, it just won't happen. I believe the only relief that some of these companies may provide is elimination of late payment charges and some interest charges to those who can't pay their bills due to financial hardship of losing jobs and income during this time.



I agree. The profit on the interest rate is too large to give up.

I can certainly see why some think the unemployment numbers are concerning. It was 3.2 million in just one week. Sadly, this will end up being a domino effect as this dragged on. Our economy is so interdependent. If one fails, many suffer like the suppliers and those servicing the failed business. I know new industries will come to the rescue somewhat like delivery services. I think Walmart and Amazon are hiring now. However, those jobs are low paying and dead end. 


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## davidvel (Mar 26, 2020)

Ironwood said:


> These past three days may be a dead cat bounce, only time will tell, but 20-30% up from Mondays close in some sectors is welcome.  I just sold two holdings near the high for the day to sell into the rally....still well below B/E on both, so I will look to buy back in lower on the next sell off....or shift into something else.  You have to be nimble in this, and that's easier said than done.


When you say breakeven are you talking from the top of the market (DOW 30K), or what you bought in for? I can't imagine you bought all (or much of) your stock in February.


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## Brett (Mar 31, 2020)

The stock market, previously described as a "twitching corpse" is showing some signs of life in the past couple of days


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## Ken555 (Mar 31, 2020)

Brett said:


> The stock market, previously described as a "twitching corpse" is showing some signs of life in the past couple of days
> 
> 
> View attachment 18420



My opinion is that it will take another giant hit when the reality of 100,000 deaths in the US is realized. But of course, the market is based on perception so I could be wrong.


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## Chrispee (Mar 31, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> My opinion is that it will take another giant hit when the reality of 100,000 deaths in the US is realized. But of course, the market is based on perception so I could be wrong.



I agree wholeheartedly.  When the US starts seeing the healthcare system overwhelmed and people dying due to lack of equipment and capacity the markets will take another plunge.  That spike in deaths should be short-lived, but it's coming.


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## geekette (Mar 31, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> My opinion is that it will take another giant hit when the reality of 100,000 deaths in the US is realized. But of course, the market is based on perception so I could be wrong.


I agree with you completely.  The market runs on fear and greed.  The fear will be enormous as reality continues to unfold.  

While I of course wish no one harm, there will be big wigs at massive companies impacted in that giant number.  That will double whammy perception of that company and others.


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## Brett (Mar 31, 2020)

Lot of negativity going on


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## Brett (Jun 5, 2020)

now a couple of months later ....




https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

“The stock market is amoral; always has been,”

"The market is focused, as always, on one paramount concern: profit."

"the stock market is ignoring a great deal and anticipating a better future."


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## davidvel (Jun 5, 2020)

Looking back at some of the fortune telling in this thread confirms why I'd  never go to a fortune teller.


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## queenofthehive (Jun 5, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Looking back at some of the fortune telling in this thread confirms why I'd  never go to a fortune teller.


I blame the press. Fear mongers they are....


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## Icc5 (Jun 5, 2020)

Right now I'm only down about $80,000 from our all time highs (on paper,haven't bought or sold recently) which includes investment account,2x 401'ks and 2 Roth's.  Not bad since at one point they were down almost $800,000.


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## bbodb1 (Jun 5, 2020)

Icc5 said:


> Right now I'm only down about $80,000 from our all time highs (on paper,haven't bought or sold recently) which includes investment account,2x 401'ks and 2 Roth's.  Not bad since at one point they were down almost $800,000.


While I only look at our investments periodically, on my last check I believe all of our accounts were back to within 1 to 2 percentage points of flipping from negative for the CY to positive for the CY.


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## PigsDad (Jun 5, 2020)

Brett said:


> “The stock market is amoral; always has been,”
> 
> "The market is focused, as always, on one paramount concern: profit."
> 
> "the stock market is ignoring a great deal and anticipating a better future."


Since the stock market is a forward-looking indicator, these quotes make sense to me.



davidvel said:


> Looking back at some of the fortune telling in this thread confirms why I'd  never go to a fortune teller.


Yep, I'll admit my prediction of DJIA bottoming out around 15-16K was off by quite a bit (thankfully!).

Overall, I am only down about 8% from my high early this year.  That's not bad, considering I am 95+% in equities.  Now we will see if there is another correction of this rally before the end of the year.

Kurt


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## Luvtoride (Jun 6, 2020)

It has certainly been quite a ride which NO ONE predicted bouncing back this fast by 2Q.

My 401k is within 2.5% of its high this year (albeit with add’l contributions and employer match). 

Some mutual funds I bought near the low in March are up 25% since then as of yesterday’s close. 

We’re meeting with our Financial Advisor on Monday (arranged quite a while ago) to review his recommendation for our retirement financial plan (we’ve been working with him for months to get to this point). Will be interesting to see how he wants to position our assets for future market volatility based on our risk tolerance (moderate). Will keep you posted.


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## TravelTime (Jun 6, 2020)

Our main portfolio has now passed its pre Covid high. I haven‘t checked our 401Ks and other holdings but I assume they have come close to recovering by now.

The government released a positive jobs report today. It seems like the economy is already recovering and had the biggest job gain in many years (given that it is measured by the last two most terrible months in history). Unless we have a second Covid wave, the worst could be behind us. Maybe the economy will fix itself but if not more stimulus programs will be coming (they are talking about another $3 trillion in stimulus). The stock market recovered first because it always leads the main street recovery, sometimes by years. So things are looking much better now economically but I still think we have a long economic recovery ahead of us. Hopefully the government can put better policies in place so that a second Covid wave does not require mass shutdowns again.

I was always against the mass shutdowns. It was like a sledgehammer approach. I thought we should have had targeted shut downs, mass testing, quarantine the sick and most vulnerable, social distancing for all, and contact tracing (and hopefully a vaccine and treatments are on the horizon). I am fine with wearing a mask even though I am skeptical that masks work.

I am excited to follow the per capita testing data by country. The USA is testing more per capita than many Asian countries, Germany, Canada and New Zealand, and the USA is not too far behind Australia, Singapore and the major European countries. Maybe in Covid wave 2, we won’t need mass shut downs again and the economy will continue to recover. I hope the government learned from Covid wave 1.

I must say that the federal small business loan program has been a savior for my business. For that, I am very grateful. After 2.5 months of near economic destruction, we are finally seeing an uptick in business even though we are still shut down and all employees are still working from home.

I pray there will not be a Covid wave 2 of mass illness and death and we will not need to do another massive shut down.


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## Brett (Jun 6, 2020)

My stock portfolio is back to pre-pandemic levels  

still periodically re-balancing from equities to fixed income


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## bbodb1 (Jun 6, 2020)

Brett said:


> My stock portfolio is back to pre-pandemic levels
> 
> still periodically re-balancing from equities to fixed income


Along the lines you mention @Brett several months ago, our financial advisor recommended rebalancing our portfolio ahead of the uncertainty that usually occurs around a presidential election. That action was done and in light of events since then, it turned out to be a stroke of good luck.
Your point made me think about when it might be safe to resume an approach leaning more toward equities - and wondering if that day has already come given the market's performance of late.


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## Brett (Jun 6, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Along the lines you mention @Brett several months ago, our financial advisor recommended rebalancing our portfolio ahead of the uncertainty that usually occurs around a presidential election. That action was done and in light of events since then, it turned out to be a stroke of good luck.
> Your point made me think about when it might be safe to resume an approach leaning more toward equities - and wondering if that day has already come given the market's performance of late.




My re-balancing from stock index funds to fixed income for an optimum "risk-reward ratio" is *age related*
- not predicting the up or down direction of the stock market

*https://www.fool.com/investing/how-and-when-you-should-rebalance-your-portfolio.aspx*


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## Patri (Jun 6, 2020)

I am smiling after my monthly report, opened yesterday with baited breath.


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## am1 (Jun 6, 2020)

Way overvalued with the uncertainty.  Not out of the woods yet with the virus.


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## rickandcindy23 (Jun 6, 2020)

Patri said:


> I am smiling after my monthly report, opened yesterday with baited breath.


Good news for all of us.  Our Roths and Rick's 401K haven't lost as we assumed they would.  I was also hesitant to look.  We may have to take some out to pay MF's next year, and we have had very few vacations.  Three cancelled, so far.  I assume our late August to Maui will also not happen.


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## Snazzylass (Jun 6, 2020)

am1 said:


> Way overvalued with the uncertainty.  Not out of the woods yet with the virus.


Um, agreed. Overvalued translate to very fragile. All the government propping up has just kicked the can down the road, in my opinion.


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## bluehende (Jun 6, 2020)

One of the things kicking around in my head is how much of valuation is due to no other options.  Yesterday we had a cd mature and the new rate would have been 0.25%.  With no place to stash cash other than cash it props up the market.  I am in the very over valued camp and only made 1 small buy near the bottom.  If you only knew where that bottom was.  That buy was pushed out 3% below the current levels.  Like others my accounts are very near that old high.  I am shocked but this is not the first time the markets have fooled me.


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## Brett (Jun 6, 2020)

am1 said:


> Way overvalued with the uncertainty.  Not out of the woods yet with the virus.





Snazzylass said:


> Um, agreed. Overvalued translate to very fragile. All the government propping up has just kicked the can down the road, in my opinion.




Most stocks are still down this year, some by 20% or more.    The total stock market includes Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc.  that are up significantly
WSJ  June 6


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## bogey21 (Jun 6, 2020)

I think taking the annuity (Pension with COLA) rather than a lump sum when I retired 21 years ago has added 5 years to my life expectancy.  I know me.  Living with the rational or unrational (you make the call) gyrations in the stock market would have affected my health...

George


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## VacationForever (Jun 6, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> I think taking the annuity (Pension with COLA) rather than a lump sum when I retired 21 years ago has added 5 years to my life expectancy.  I know me.  Living with the rational or unrational (you make the call) gyrations in the stock market would have affected my health...
> 
> George


There was a study which showed that people with a decent size pension tend be happier and they live longer because the stress of worrying about 
where their retirement income is going to come from is removed.  They also strive to live longer to keep getting paid...


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## Brett (Jun 24, 2020)

The stock market is* setting new record highs* !      (tech stocks, not industrials or manufacturing)

in today's Wall Street Journal -

"The divergence in the performance of the major U.S. stock indexes this year is the widest in more than a decade. *A surge in big technology stocks has helped the Nasdaq Composite rally 13% in 2020,* while the Dow Jones Industrial Average of *blue-chip stocks is down 8.3%*.
The stay-at-home practices adopted to help slow the spread of the virus have accelerated digital trends that have benefited many big tech stocks. Shares of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook have rallied this year, led by Amazon’s 50% advance.  Other industries haven’t kept up. "


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