# Hundreds of earthquakes hit the Big Island. Kilauea may erupt [Eruption UPDATE]



## Passepartout (May 3, 2018)

Some 600 earthquakes have hit the Big Island in the last 3 days. It appears Kilauea may erupt soon. More here: http://wnep.com/2018/05/03/hawaiian...earthquakes-hit-island-in-less-than-72-hours/

Jim


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## controller1 (May 3, 2018)

Interesting.  However, I believe the following statement in the report is something that could be stated just about every day of the year:  However, the agency added, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory has indicated that a volcanic eruption was “possible but not imminent.”


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## vacationhopeful (May 3, 2018)

Was on the Big Island in middle of January, after the Iraq invasion and before the Desert Shield response of Operation Desert Storm. Air travel had seriously decreased and my airline travel club (TWA club?) offered a 5 or 7 night trip to Oahu with hotel for chump change ($500 for 5 nights or $700 for a 7 night stay). BUT 2 people had to travel together. Early January

My Hawaii trip partner was found on a ski life at Camelback Ski Area in the Poconos ... lift talk. His opinion was just like mine ... WHAT A DEAL! And within the weeks, off we flew to Ohau. Took an inter-island flight to see the lava flowing into the ocean (his idea or research?). Rented a car, drove over to the other side of the Big Island, parked in the "not yet covered by the lava" park lot with bathrooms (not opened) and walked out to the fissure where the lava was following out to the ocean. 15-20 minute walk ... if that. Took pictures of the lava flowing into the ocean and the steam rising. Maybe 8-10 other people were around/walking to/from ... no signs, no roped off areas, no park employees, no "boats in the water" touring.

Today, it is helicopter rides for a "FLY OVER" only ... too FAR to walk (in miles), too hot to walk that long distance due to the lava, and too dangerous on the extended & built up shelf above the lava flows, etc. Or a boat tour unless far out in the sea.

Definitely one of my most unique trips .. the trip which can not EVER be duplicated ... the one I wish digital cameras with BIG memory cards existed then. A one day flight over to the Big Island ... with some NYC guy I met on a Camelback Ski lift in the Poconos who wanted to go to Hawaii.


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## jacknsara (May 3, 2018)

Eruption Reported in Leilani Estates
http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2018/05/03/eruption-reported-in-leilani-estates/
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mohala,+Pāhoa,+HI+96778/@19.4723557,-154.9044104,16z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x79523a844f83fcf9:0xeda56c22fa887dd8!8m2!3d19.4681832!4d-154.8979087

We've stayed in Kapoho many times and are familiar with this neighborhood.  A lot of fellow Americans are about to be displaced.


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## controller1 (May 3, 2018)

Evacuations have been ordered!


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## Sandy VDH (May 4, 2018)

Mods, I opened a new thread because I could not change the title.  Can you change the title then to IS erupting instead of MAY erupt. [updated & merged]


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## Sandy VDH (May 4, 2018)

__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10155524277687014


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## SmithOp (May 4, 2018)

Just flew back from BI today, we were at VNP last week when lava was overflowing at the Kileaua overlook, quite visible I captured a short video from the spotter scopes the park rangers set up.  

It was obvious that a blowout was due downstream with lava backed up that far.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## dsmrp (May 4, 2018)

Morning news reports many local residents evacuated, lava reaching streets. Fortunately no reports of injuries.

Hope the orchid anthurium nursery  I visited on the way to VNP, fares okay.


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## DaveNV (May 4, 2018)

dsmrp said:


> Morning news reports many local residents evacuated, lava reaching streets. Fortunately no reports of injuries.
> 
> Hope the orchid anthurium nursery  I visited on the way to VNP, fares okay.



If it's Akatsuka's on Highway 11 heading down the mountain toward Hilo, it's probably fine.  The eruption is centered further southeast, in the south Pahoa area.  Leilani Estates is closer to Kalapana, an area long known for its close encounter with active lava. The two areas are about 18 miles apart, as the crow flies.

Dave


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## Henry M. (May 4, 2018)

From the USGS Volcano Hazards Program at https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/status.html



> The eruption in the Leilani Estates subdivision in the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano that began in late afternoon ended by about 6:30 p.m. HST. Lava spatter and gas bursts erupted from the fissure for about two hours, and lava spread a short distance from the fissure, less than about 10 m (33 ft).
> 
> At this time, the fissure is not erupting lava and no other fissures have erupted.
> 
> HVO geologists are working near the fissure overnight to track additional activity that may occur, and other scientists are closely tracking the volcano's overall activity.


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## Luanne (May 4, 2018)

Dh said to me last night, wasn't that the area we were considering buying into and living when we retired.


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## Sandy VDH (May 4, 2018)

*USGS reported:* A fissure about 150 m (492 ft) long erupted mostly spatter and intermittent bubble bursts for about 2 hours.


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## DaveNV (May 4, 2018)

Luanne said:


> Dh said to me last night, wasn't that the area we were considering buying into and living when we retired.



If you look at the aerial footage, there are houses scattered around, and very near to this crack. A shade too close for me, thanks.

Dave


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## jlp879 (May 4, 2018)

Bigger earthquake just hit:
http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/05/03/breaking-news/kilauea-volcano-may-2018/

Here is USGS aerial footage from yesterday's fissure eruptions:


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## jlp879 (May 4, 2018)

Fifth fissure eruption opens in Leilani Estates after latest 5.6 earthquake.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/...riggers-house-fires-as-hundreds-evacuate-area


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## Carol C (May 4, 2018)

Kileaea has erupted, and Pele is in charge once again.


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## Passepartout (May 4, 2018)

See. I told you guys yesterday. I just hedged until Madam Pele arrived.


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## easyrider (May 4, 2018)

There was a m 6.9 today near Leilani Estates. I kind of wonder if this eruption increases tourist activity to the area. I kind of want to go but not so bad that I will. One trip we were lucky enough to watch lava ooze. Lava is very mesmerizing to say the least. 

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000dyad#executive

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/...riggers-house-fires-as-hundreds-evacuate-area

Bill


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## DaveNV (May 4, 2018)

easyrider said:


> There was a m 6.9 today near Leilani Estates. I kind of wonder if this eruption increases tourist activity to the area. I kind of want to go but not so bad that I will. One trip we were lucky enough to watch lava ooze. Lava is very mesmerizing to say the least.
> 
> https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000dyad#executive
> 
> ...



The eruption isn't in the main part of the Park - it's down in an evacuated neighborhood.  Lots of sulphur dioxide in the air, which makes people dead.  Not a safe place right now.  I keep seeing pictures of a lava lake, but they never say where it is.  I wonder if it's at Halemaumau?  They also show lots of smoke and ash rising from a big crater, but again, they don't say where that it.  Very confusing.

Dave


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## easyrider (May 4, 2018)

DaveNW said:


> The eruption isn't in the main part of the Park - it's down in an evacuated neighborhood.  Lots of sulphur dioxide in the air, which makes people dead.  Not a safe place right now.  I keep seeing pictures of a lava lake, but they never say where it is.  I wonder if it's at Halemaumau?  They also show lots of smoke and ash rising from a big crater, but again, they don't say where that it.  Very confusing.
> 
> Dave



I read somewhere that there is a lava fissure in Leilani Estates about 11 miles from Hilo Town. That s2o also gets into the water supply of many of the people in subdivisions that rely on rain catch basins. One of my friends lives in the Hawaiian Paradise Park Estates and uses a covered above ground pool for their water storage. Even though it runs through a reverse osmosis machine I won't drink it.

When we saw the lava flow it was about 2003 or 2004. Pretty cool. Our last trip we saw the PuuO glow after dark. The lava had stopped flowing to the sea on this trip. I thinks there is the main lava pool and a small lava pool somewhere between the big pool and Kalapana.  

Bill


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## DaveNV (May 4, 2018)

easyrider said:


> I read somewhere that there is a lava fissure in Leilani Estates about 11 miles from Hilo Town. That s2o also gets into the water supply of many of the people in subdivisions that rely on rain catch basins. One of my friends lives in the Hawaiian Paradise Park Estates and uses a covered above ground pool for their water storage. Even though it runs through a reverse osmosis machine I won't drink it.
> 
> When we saw the lava flow it was about 2003 or 2004. Pretty cool. Our last trip we saw the PuuO glow after dark. The lava had stopped flowing to the sea on this trip. I thinks there is the main lava pool and a small lava pool somewhere between the big pool and Kalapana.
> 
> Bill



I didn't know the Sulphur Dioxide could contaminate water supplies. That's troubling.  I had property that was on a well here in the PNW that had dissolved sulphur in the water.  It was the cleanest water I've ever been around.  We had it tested numerous times, and they never found anything.  A simple charcoal filter took away the sulphur taste.  It wasn't supposed to, but it did.  Weird.

Dave


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## jehb2 (May 4, 2018)

So is it still safe to vacation in the Waikoloa area.  Is that area experiencing Any vog?


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## jacknsara (May 4, 2018)

DaveNW said:


> . .   They also show lots of smoke and ash rising from a big crater, but again, they don't say where that it.  Very confusing.
> Dave


Aloha,
I'm not completely sure what you are seeing Dave, but I think that's coming out from Pu'u O'o http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2...s-deep-hole-at-puu-oo-as-lava-moves-downrift/   Look especially starting around 18 seconds.  Imagine Crater Lake in Oregon without the water!
In an earlier post (#4) I included a google map link that zoomed in on Leilani estates just in case anyone isn't sure where the action is.
Jack


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## DaveNV (May 5, 2018)

jacknsara said:


> Aloha,
> I'm not completely sure what you are seeing Dave, but I think that's coming out from Pu'u O'o http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2...s-deep-hole-at-puu-oo-as-lava-moves-downrift/   Look especially starting around 18 seconds.  Imagine Crater Lake in Oregon without the water!
> In an earlier post (#4) I included a google map link that zoomed in on Leilani estates just in case anyone isn't sure where the action is.
> Jack



I think you're right.  The local news here shows this clip of a thick column of smoke and ash rising from a crater. A lot like what your video shows at about the :31 mark.  But then they show what appears to be the darkened floor of a crater, (night image), then lava seeps up from one edge, and spreads out in a spiderweb across the surface. It's impressive, and is what I'd imagine Halemaumau would look like.  Maybe it's the Pu'u O'o crater?

Dave


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## jlp879 (May 5, 2018)

Kīlauea volcano is currently erupting from TWO locations, from its summit crater, Halemaumau, which has erupted nonstop since 2008 and is characterized by a 10-acre glowing lava lake that rises and falls; and 11 miles east from the summit crater, at the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent in the remote East Rift Zone. Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō has erupted nonstop since 1983, and its eruptive nature was the surface lava flows that until last year one could see entering the ocean.


Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō Crater is the green triangle on this map.  





The thick column of pink ash and smoke you saw was Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō. The lava lake image you saw was most likely Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō.  It collapsed April 30.  Today the lava lake in Halemaumau Crater dropped its level by 1000 ft.  Where did that magma go?  Back down inside the earth to come out again somewhere else.  Not looking too good for Hawaii right now as that lava has to go somewhere.


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## JDHPE (May 5, 2018)

jehb2 said:


> So is it still safe to vacation in the Waikoloa area.  Is that area experiencing Any vog?



Aloha, At HGVC Waikoloa now - only felt the 5.0 and 6.9 main quakes (~10 sec long rolling), nothing else - the air seems normal...  Yes, it’s safe


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## jehb2 (May 5, 2018)

JDHPE said:


> Aloha, At HGVC Waikoloa now - only felt the 5.0 and 6.9 main quakes (~10 sec long rolling), nothing else - the air seems normal...  Yes, it’s safe



Thanks so much.


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## jlp879 (May 5, 2018)

Hawaii Volcanoes National Park closed Friday after the 6.9 earthquake.  It is closed until further notice. 

http://bigislandnow.com/2018/05/04/hvnp-closing-due-to-strong-and-damaging-earthquakes/

From the article:
Hikes were canceled and about 2,600 visitors are being evacuated from the park. Guests at Volcano House hotel and Kilauea Military Camp are being relocated. All non-emergency park employees were sent home.

A 7th and 8th fissure have erupted in Leilani Estates Saturday morning.  The 7th fissure is thought to be over 800 ft long, the most powerful one yet.  It has already consumed a house on either side of Leilani Ave.  

https://www.facebook.com/KITV4/posts/10155289535211861


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## Hawaiibarb (May 5, 2018)

The front page of the Star Advertiser, in LARGE Font is "Fear and Fire".  Very tense over there, the residents of Leilani Estates know they may lose everything.  As far as the vog is concerned, remember that that can drift a long way, so those with pulmonary problems should take care.  Lava is fountaining through the fissures in the road although the lava flow so far is not going very far.  Tough times.


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## taffy19 (May 5, 2018)

Want to know more about earthquakes and volcanoes?  This link will explain it in detail.  I watched the whole thing.  Hawaii starts on 5:20 but the explanation before and after are very interesting too.


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## jlp879 (May 5, 2018)

Here is weather animation forecasting the daily sulphur dioxide levels.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/hysplit/animate.cgi?domain=bigis&variable=so2&ftype=ensmax01


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## JIMinNC (May 5, 2018)

DaveNW said:


> The eruption isn't in the main part of the Park - it's down in an evacuated neighborhood.  Lots of sulphur dioxide in the air, which makes people dead.  Not a safe place right now.  I keep seeing pictures of a lava lake, but they never say where it is.  I wonder if it's at Halemaumau?  They also show lots of smoke and ash rising from a big crater, but again, they don't say where that it.  Very confusing.
> 
> Dave




The USGS Hawaii Volcano Observatory is the best site for info on Kilauea. For photos, look under the Multimedia menu item

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/status.html

- The lava lake that overflowed several days ago was the lava lake at Halemaumau. There were a lot of night images posted of that. That was when the lava was backing up into the crater
- Then, when the earthquakes started, the lava began heading downstream underground, and the lava lake began dropping as the magma drained out of the craters underground. As others have said, the Halemaumau lava lake level has dropped considerably
- The crater floor at Pu'u O'o collapsed as the magma retreated downstream. That is the crater where the huge smoke plumes were photographed. (I think there were some smaller plumes at HaleMaumau when rocks collapsed into the lava lake.) That collapse coincided with the big earthquake. There is now no lava activity at Pu'u O'o or in the Pu'u O'o lava fields that have been active for several decades
- At last count, there are 8 breakouts of spattering lava in the Puna area, well downstream from Pu'u O'o and Halemaumau


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## amy241 (May 6, 2018)

We were on the Big Island from April 25th through a May 2nd. We were at Volcano House Hotel for the first 2 nights and the lava lake at Halema’uma’u was rising. Park rangers had indicated that pressure was rising and they expected an eruption at any time. Volcano Village experienced a small earthquake on April 26th. The volcano erupted the day after we left. I’m actually disappointed we were not there to see it as it would have been a once in a life time experience.


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## JIMinNC (May 7, 2018)

amy241 said:


> We were on the Big Island from April 25th through a May 2nd. We were at Volcano House Hotel for the first 2 nights and the lava lake at Halema’uma’u was rising. Park rangers had indicated that pressure was rising and they expected an eruption at any time. Volcano Village experienced a small earthquake on April 26th. The volcano erupted the day after we left. I’m actually disappointed we were not there to see it as it would have been a once in a life time experience.



Probably wouldn't have been much to see, though. My understanding is the receding lava levels in the Halema’uma’u lava lake has caused some rock collapses that periodically cause some ash plumes to come up from that crater, but other than that, all of the active lava is in the area in Puna where the evacuations have taken place, so sightseers are not allowed. Some may be visible from helicopter rides, but I'm not sure if the authorities have had the FAA issue any flight restrictions over the lava fissures and breakouts. I also saw that some or all of the National Park was closed. Not sure if that is still the case or not.


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## Luanne (May 7, 2018)

JIMinNC said:


> Probably wouldn't have been much to see, though. My understanding is the receding lava levels in the Halema’uma’u lava lake has caused some rock collapses that periodically cause some ash plumes to come up from that crater, but other than that, all of the active lava is in the area in Puna where the evacuations have taken place, so sightseers are not allowed. Some may be visible from helicopter rides, but I'm not sure if the authorities have had the FAA issue any flight restrictions over the lava fissures and breakouts. I also saw that some or all of the National Park was closed. Not sure if that is still the case or not.



Hawaii National Park, Hawai‘i – Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park reopened Sunday at 3 p.m. following a sequence of large, violent earthquakes that prompted a two-day closure and evacuation of park visitors and staff last Friday.

“Our primary objective is the safety of employees, park partners and visitors,” said Park Superintendent Cindy Orlando. “The limited opening allows us to respond to new volcanic and seismic events should they occur and the closures that remain are necessary to keep people out of dangerous and unassessed areas. Visitors should expect changing conditions and be prepared for unannounced closures,” she said.

Park staff are busy assessing trails, roads and buildings in the park, and thus far, minimal damage has been reported. However, several rock slides were triggered by the 6.9-magnitude earthquake that struck Friday at 12:32 p.m. and a slew of aftershocks and smaller earthquakes that preceded it. The USGS reported 500 earthquakes have occurred in and around Kīlauea Volcano since Friday afternoon, and smaller temblors continue today.

The following areas are open: 
•The Entrance Station from Highway 11 to Jaggar Museum is open from 3 p.m. to 10 p.m.; Jaggar Museum will close at 8 p.m. (the outdoor overlook will remain open until 10 p.m.) 
•Kīlauea Visitor Center is open from 3 p.m. to 8 p.m. 
•Sulphur Banks Trail 
•Steam Vents parking lot 
•Crater Rim Trail is open from Kīlauea Overlook to Jaggar Museum only 
•The Entrance Station to the 1969 lava flow near Mauna Ulu 
•Mauna Ulu to Pu‘uhuluhulu (Nāpau Trail is closed past Pu‘uhuluhulu) 
•Escape Road from Highway 11 to Mauna Ulu 
•Mauna Loa Road from Highway 11 to the Mauna Loa Lookout and Kīpukapuaulu

Any area in the park not listed here is closed, including most trails, Nāhuku (Thurston Lava Tube), Kīlauea Iki, Devastation Trail and Pu‘u Pua‘i and Chain of Craters Road past Mauna Ulu.

Due to the hazardous and unpredictable ash plume coming from Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent, there is a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) above the vent. Aircraft (including drones) are not permitted in the TFR, which extends 3,000 feet above ground level and a two-mile radius from the vent. Relief aircraft on official flights approved by the National Park Service are the only aircraft allowed in the area.


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## fleming4 (May 8, 2018)

I know the western coast of the Big Island is far from the lava flows, but are there any air quality problems being experienced in the Kona area or along the western coast? Smoke or sulfur dioxide?
Thanks in advance.


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## jacknsara (May 8, 2018)

fleming4 said:


> I know the western coast of the Big Island is far from the lava flows, but are there any air quality problems being experienced in the Kona area or along the western coast? Smoke or sulfur dioxide?
> Thanks in advance.


Aloha,
Check out http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/index.cgi for up-to-date conditions.
Jack


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## The Haileys (May 8, 2018)

These videos are simply mind-blowing ... there's more on the vimeo page, too. 





May 6, 2018 HUGE Fissure Eruption 





May 4, 2018 Third Leilani Eruption


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## JoeVacation (May 9, 2018)

Has anyone stayed at the Waikoloa resorts since the volcano has been erupting? My wife is really allergic to sulfur and we're concerned that she'll be miserable in Waikoloa. It's still early but we're staying in late August (Kingsland) and want to know in time to cancel if necessary.


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## SmithOp (May 9, 2018)

JoeVacation said:


> Has anyone stayed at the Waikoloa resorts since the volcano has been erupting? My wife is really allergic to sulfur and we're concerned that she'll be miserable in Waikoloa. It's still early but we're staying in late August (Kingsland) and want to know in time to cancel if necessary.



I wouldn’t be concerned if you stay up in Waikoloa, North Coast, or Hilo.  The prevailing tradewinds carry the Vog across the southern end of the island, across Maui and Oahu.

We just left there the day it started and you wouldn’t even know anything was happening at the Waikoloa resort.  We were there 2 weeks and the winds either came east to west across the saddle or from the north.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## WalnutBaron (May 11, 2018)

FAA has now issued flight restrictions up to 20,000 feet above Kilauea and within a 12-mile radius.


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## WalnutBaron (May 17, 2018)

The summit of Kilauea has erupted as of about 30 minutes ago. Volcanic cloud is 30,000 feet high.


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## Avislo (May 17, 2018)

We threw in the towel the other day.  Re-booked the reservation for a different Island.


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## mj2vacation (May 17, 2018)

Hilton sent me a great deal for a preview stay at waikoloa.....

I would take advantage of it but already booked for Maui and Aulani.


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## DaveNV (May 17, 2018)

We decided it’s a bit too unstable on the Big Island right now, so I switched things to Kauai instead. Alaska Airlines was great to switch our flight home without change fees. Hawaiian Airlines website says change fees are waived, so switching our inter-island flight will be simple.

Dave


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## T_R_Oglodyte (May 17, 2018)

jlp879 said:


> The thick column of pink ash and smoke you saw was Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō. The lava lake image you saw was most likely Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō.  It collapsed April 30.  Today the lava lake in Halemaumau Crater dropped its level by 1000 ft.  Where did that magma go?  Back down inside the earth to come out again somewhere else.  Not looking too good for Hawaii right now as that lava has to go somewhere.



What has likely happened inside the mountain.  The magma is pushing up, with the main outlet at the summit crater.  But there are also side passageways that feed Pu'u O'o and the southeast rift zone.  

The side passages are constricted, so while some magma heads that direction, most of it is has been pushed toward the summit. That has maintained a higher magma level in the summit crater as compared with Pu'u O'o. Just like with a leak in a pipe, when you increase the pressure more water shoots out through the leak.  The same thing has been going on inside the mountain.  There has been a kind of stasis, with the magma level rising high enough at the main crater to increase the pressure inside the mountain sufficiently so that the magma being expelled would all go to the side outlets.  The magma level at the top has been fluctuating, but no eruptions.

But something happened inside the mountain to open the passageways to the side.  So there is less resistance to flow in that direction, which reduces the pressure inside the mountain.  So now the magma in the lake at the summit is draining back into the volcano and increasing the flow to the southwest.   The magma level will continue to drop until such as the pressure inside the mountain equilibrates at a lower level that adjusts for the altered sideflow capacity. 

If there is a surface eruption, it would likely happen if the magma level drops below the groundwater table inside the mountain. If that happens, water will start to flow into the magma chamber, where it will become superheated and lead to explosive steam eruptions.


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## jehb2 (May 18, 2018)

Avislo said:


> We threw in the towel the other day.  Re-booked the reservation for a different Island.




We we’re planning to spend half our time in Honolulu and half on the Big Island.  We decided last Sunday just to spend our entire time in Oahu.  Normally you would have little to no chance of getting something this late at HGVC in Honolulu.  This afternoon a ton of units became available at HGVC Lagoon Tower in Honolulu.  My guess is that enough people are canceling their entire Hawaiian vacation.    I know the Big Island is really hurting with all the cancellations.


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## JIMinNC (May 18, 2018)

jehb2 said:


> We we’re planning to spend half our time in Honolulu and half on the Big Island.  We decided last Sunday just to spend our entire time in Oahu.  Normally you would have little to no chance of getting something this late at HGVC in Honolulu.  This afternoon a ton of units became available at HGVC Lagoon Tower in Honolulu.  My guess is that enough people are canceling their entire Hawaiian vacation.    I know the Big Island is really hurting with all the cancellations.



As others have said, there has been little to no impact on most of the Big Island. The impacts of the lava eruptions around Pahoa are extremely localized and other past eruptions have had more serious/widespread lava impacts to the southeastern flanks of Kilauea, and to more residents, than this one. The activity at the summit is more significant than any in recent years, but even that is unlikely to have significant impacts on Waikoloa, which is over 50 air miles away with a couple of 10,000+ ft mountains in between. Obviously, nothing is impossible, but the risk of significant impact in Waikoloa from Kilauea is fairly remote. I certainly wouldn't cancel a trip to Waikoloa over that level of risk.

Part of the issue here is the video coming out of the island is fairly dramatic, so it's gotten a lot of coverage by the TV broadcast news, making it seem worse than it is. The real impacts are very localized and I suspect the people who keep their Hawaii vacations intact will have wonderful trips. The sensationalism has gotten so bad that this morning I received a news alert on my phone from one of the major international news organizations that there were "grave concerns a second Hawaii volcano was about to erupt," or something to that effect. Turns out they were reporting that the USGS has Mauna Loa rated as "Very High Threat Potential." Well, Mauna Loa has been at that threat level for *decades*, because it is still classified as an _active_ volcano_. _It hasn't erupted since 1984, and that eruption only lasted about 3 weeks. It could erupt again tomorrow...but that was also true a month ago or a year ago. Kilauea has been erupting continuously since January 1983, with a number of more intense episodes like this one mixed in, but the impacts have always been relatively localized to the immediate area. Just prior to our honeymoon in 1992, there was an elevation of lava activity and eruptive intensity, and during our trip, we were able to walk on a lava surface that was only about a couple days old (under the supervision of park rangers). It required about a 30 minute walk over rough lava fields from the end of Chain of Craters Road. We could see lava spurting into the air just a few hundred yards away as it entered the ocean. It was incredible to watch that close.

Our next Hawaii trip isn't until Feb/Mar 2019, but even if it were next week, we would not hesitate to go. The only folks who I would recommend cancel their trips would be those who were going to the Big Island for the sole/primary purpose of going to Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. I think the park could be closed for an extended time - at least until Pele settles down a little bit.


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## DaveNV (May 18, 2018)

JIMinNC said:


> Our next Hawaii trip isn't until Feb/Mar 2019, but even if it were next week, we would not hesitate to go. The only folks who I would recommend cancel their trips would be those who were going to the Big Island for the sole/primary purpose of going to Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. I think the park could be closed for an extended time - at least until Pele settles down a little bit.




And that is primarily why we changed our plans.  I've been to the BI many times, and the purpose of this trip was to explore areas of the Park we hadn't been to before.  I'm disappointed, but I'll go there another time, when things are less crazy.

Another point to consider, for those still going to the BI, is the areas of the island that are NOT closed will be more crowded due to the concentration of people who have no place else to go.  So unless yo'll stay resort-bound, be prepared for increased crowds and traffic when you go out.

Dave


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## jehb2 (May 18, 2018)

I love the Big Island.  We own 2 weeks at the Bay Club.  This past week I have spent a good deal of time looking for up to the minute updates. I’ve even been looking at live video cameras at Hapuna Beach and Kona. And checking this website frequently.  http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/hysplit/

Both my kids use inhalers.  I found myself worrying to much.  It just wasn’t worth it.


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## bizaro86 (May 18, 2018)

DaveNW said:


> And that is primarily why we changed our plans.  I've been to the BI many times, and the purpose of this trip was to explore areas of the Park we hadn't been to before.  I'm disappointed, but I'll go there another time, when things are less crazy.
> 
> Another point to consider, for those still going to the BI, is the areas of the island that are NOT closed will be more crowded due to the concentration of people who have no place else to go.  So unless yo'll stay resort-bound, be prepared for increased crowds and traffic when you go out.
> 
> Dave



I bet people cancelling their trips will offset that.


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## DaveNV (May 18, 2018)

bizaro86 said:


> I bet people cancelling their trips will offset that.



If so, I hope they have a great vacation.  They can have my spot. 

Dave


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## JIMinNC (May 19, 2018)

bizaro86 said:


> I bet people cancelling their trips will offset that.



Probably MORE than offset it. The areas that are closed are very, very limited - mainly the national park and the areas in the immediate vicinity of the active lava near Pahoa. Based on what I’ve read, I would guess 95% of the Big Island is open and business as usual.

The media sensationalism is doing a disservice to the people of Hawaii who depend on tourism for their livelihood.


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## DaveNV (May 19, 2018)

Friends in Kona posted this picture of the VOG there. Not a pretty picture.

Dave


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## artringwald (May 22, 2018)

This is the best map I've seen since the recent eruptions started.


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## klpca (May 22, 2018)

Found this last night showing air quality. You can zoom in to see a specific location.
https://www.windy.com/19.927/-155.883?so2sm,18.724,-155.808,7,m:eenaPm


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## presley (May 22, 2018)

It's so sad. I know the island relies heavily on tourism. I wouldn't go there at this time because I love to explore and I am very sensitive to the air quality. Heck, even back when air quality wasn't considered an issue, I used to think lots of the areas we visited stunk from the volcano. Of course, we all knew that this could happen at any point. 

Strange to think that we have volcanoes in California, too. I wonder what the odds are of one of them going off.


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## Passepartout (May 22, 2018)

presley said:


> Strange to think that we have volcanoes in California, too. I wonder what the odds are of one of them going off.


Probably close to 100%. It's just that nobody knows WHEN. Historically, even the massive Yellowstone volcano has erupted every 200,000 to 300,000 years, and it's been 500,000 years. It's overdue.

Jim


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## PigsDad (May 22, 2018)

artringwald said:


> This is the best map I've seen since the recent eruptions started.


Great map; thanks for posting. 

Question: with the large number of lava flows in the last 150+ years (a _very _small timeframe in the geologic world) covering a good portion of that area, why would anyone consider building a home anywhere near there?  Like building in a flood plain and then being surprised when they get flooded.  Seems shortsighted to me.

Kurt


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## VacationForever (May 22, 2018)

PigsDad said:


> Great map; thanks for posting.
> 
> Question: with the large number of lava flows in the last 150+ years (a _very _small timeframe in the geologic world) covering a good portion of that area, why would anyone consider building a home anywhere near there?  Like building in a flood plain and then being surprised when they get flooded.  Seems shortsighted to me.
> 
> Kurt


DUH!

Developer submits plan to county to build homes.  County gets $, approves development.  People buy homes because they are cheaper than homes around the other parts of the island.  Major failure by all 3 parties.


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## jpc763 (May 22, 2018)

klpca said:


> Found this last night showing air quality. You can zoom in to see a specific location.
> https://www.windy.com/19.927/-155.883?so2sm,18.724,-155.808,7,m:eenaPm


So looking at that, it appears that the air quality of Ko Olina in Oahu is pretty bad.  Any reason for that other than the direction the wind takes air pollution from Honolulu?


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## klpca (May 22, 2018)

jpc763 said:


> So looking at that, it appears that the air quality of Ko Olina in Oahu is pretty bad.  Any reason for that other than the direction the wind takes air pollution from Honolulu?


No idea. (Anything scientific is over my head sadly #beancounterproblems)  Maybe just because Honolulu is a more urban area? It's fun to scroll out and see the rest of the world.


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## Roger830 (May 22, 2018)

Air quality looks pretty bad in Ohio, PA, WV area, but fortunately no glass particles.


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## vikingsholm (May 22, 2018)

jpc763 said:


> So looking at that, it appears that the air quality of Ko Olina in Oahu is pretty bad.  Any reason for that other than the direction the wind takes air pollution from Honolulu?


We're at Ko Olina this week, Kauai Lagoons last week. Haven't noticed an air quality problem at either location.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (May 22, 2018)

jpc763 said:


> So looking at that, it appears that the air quality of Ko Olina in Oahu is pretty bad.  Any reason for that other than the direction the wind takes air pollution from Honolulu?


Honolulu in general, but more particularly Pearl Harbor, Pearl City, and Barbers Point, all of which are immediately upwind up Ko'olina.  That is the industrial area of Oahu, with the Naval Yard, Hawaii Electric's Waiau generating station, oil refineries, the island trash incinerator, among others.  Hawaii does not have natural gas, so all of the power used on the island comes from oil, which is a dirtier fuel than natural gas.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (May 22, 2018)

Roger830 said:


> Air quality looks pretty bad in Oiho, PA, WV area, but fortunately no glass particles.


When my son mowed the lawn over the weekend, we had grass particles.  Do they count?


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## CalGalTraveler (May 22, 2018)

PigsDad said:


> Great map; thanks for posting.
> 
> Question: with the large number of lava flows in the last 150+ years (a _very _small timeframe in the geologic world) covering a good portion of that area, why would anyone consider building a home anywhere near there?  Like building in a flood plain and then being surprised when they get flooded.  Seems shortsighted to me.
> 
> Kurt



Developer sells property then leaves
Government gets paid off (or favors which enrich them indirectly)
Homeowners get screwed...


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## klpca (May 22, 2018)

Hilton Waikola webcam: http://www.hiltonwaikoloavillage.com/webcams
Sheraton Kona Resort webcam: http://www.seehawaiilive.com/big-island/big-island-resorts

Seeing is believing.


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## Roger830 (May 22, 2018)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> When my son mowed the lawn over the weekend, we had grass particles.  Do they count?



They make me sneeze, my neighbor wears a mask. 
He also wears a long sleeve shirt and hat in July.


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## DaveNV (May 22, 2018)

klpca said:


> Hilton Waikola webcam: http://www.hiltonwaikoloavillage.com/webcams
> Sheraton Kona Resort webcam: http://www.seehawaiilive.com/big-island/big-island-resorts
> 
> Seeing is believing.



I have no regrets for changing my trip away from the Big Island this time around.  That Kona webcam view tells me everything I need to know.  Thanks, Katherine.

Dave


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## CalGalTraveler (May 22, 2018)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Honolulu in general, but more particularly Pearl Harbor, Pearl City, and Barbers Point, all of which are immediately upwind up Ko'olina.  That is the industrial area of Oahu, with the Naval Yard, Hawaii Electric's Waiau generating station, oil refineries, the island trash incinerator, among others.  Hawaii does not have natural gas, so all of the power used on the island comes from oil, which is a dirtier fuel than natural gas.



When we visited Honolulu last year, we noticed quite a bit of solar on roofs. This is a good location for solar and should help alleviate some of this pollution over time.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (May 22, 2018)

CalGalTraveler said:


> When we visited Honolulu last year, we noticed quite a bit of solar on roofs. This is a good location for solar and should help alleviate some of this pollution over time.


One of my sons spent his sabbatical on a fellowship with the Department of Energy, working in energy policy issues. We were talking about solar in Hawaii, and he mentioned that Hawaii is the one place in the US where installation of solar panels is justified by economics without the use any subsidies. That's because of the high cost of electricity on the Islands.


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## Luanne (May 22, 2018)

CalGalTraveler said:


> When we visited Honolulu last year, we noticed quite a bit of solar on roofs. This is a good location for solar and should help alleviate some of this pollution over time.


We also noticed a lot of solar on the roofs on Maui.


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## CalGalTraveler (May 22, 2018)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> One of my sons spent his sabbatical on a fellowship with the Department of Energy, working in energy policy issues. We were talking about solar in Hawaii, and he mentioned that Hawaii is the one place in the US where installation of solar panels is justified by economics without the use any subsidies. That's because of the high cost of electricity on the Islands.



Northern California is also justified. 90% our neighborhood has converted to solar. We love $0 electric bills and can run our air conditioner and leave the lights on all we want. We now use electric space heaters in key rooms to minimize our gas usage which has also cut our gas bill. Prior to solar we had $250+ monthly electric bills. 

When our car needs replacement we will purchase an electric vehicle.  I wasn't a big solar fan but now I am.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (May 22, 2018)

But it's


CalGalTraveler said:


> Northern California is also justified. 90% our neighborhood has converted to solar. We love $0 electric bills and can run our air conditioner and leave the lights on all we want. We now use electric space heaters in key rooms to minimize our gas usage which has also cut our gas bill. Prior to solar we had $250+ monthly electric bills.
> 
> When our car needs replacement we will purchase an electric vehicle.  I wasn't a big solar fan but now I am.


But the purchase is still subsidized.  If the subsidies were taken away the cost would no longer pencil out.

Hawaii also receives the subsidies.  But if the subsidies were removed it would still pencil out.

In order for it to pencil out without subsidies, you would have to have electric rates like those in Hawaii.


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## CalGalTraveler (May 22, 2018)

Got it. The 30% tax write-off was what got our attention and convinced us to convert. But now that we are converted, we love it.


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## artringwald (May 24, 2018)




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## jehb2 (May 27, 2018)




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## geist1223 (May 27, 2018)

Just heard on the morning news that the traditional winds may be dying down. This unfortunately would mean that most of the gases from the eruption would not be blown away from the populated areas.


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