# Are you delaying those plane ticket purchases in hopes of falling fares?



## Dave M (Oct 16, 2007)

From an article related to Delta's earnings release that will appear in tomorrow's Wall Street Journal:





> Though high oil prices continue to hammer the industry, capacity reductions and solid travel demand have enabled domestic airlines to boost fares and profitability.


That's a theme that has often been discussed on this forum lately and isn't likely to change soon. Waiting for fares to return to lower levels of prior years is likely to be a futile wait.

With reduced capacity and high demand for air travel, the airlines have been able to successfully increase ticket prices by significant amounts on many routes, especially for holiday travel. 

Still, there will surely be pockets of slightly lower fares occasionally, such as Southwest's new sale for travel between October 26 and February 13.


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## x3 skier (Oct 16, 2007)

AA just raised fares $5-$10 on most routes. If the others go along, it will stick, if not, it sure isn't going any lower!

Cheers


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## camachinist (Oct 16, 2007)

I predict fare sales domestically... international will be tighter...

Pat


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## falmouth3 (Oct 16, 2007)

Pat, I hope you're right.  I really don't want to spend $1100 on my United ticket to KOA.

Sue


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## Dave M (Oct 16, 2007)

Sue -

I'm not sure we both interpreted Pat's comment in the same way. I interpreted his comment as meaning that fare sales are likely to be _less_ generous (and perhaps less frequent) than in the past. If that was his intent, I agree.


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## BassAngler (Oct 16, 2007)

I have noticed an increase from Bangor, ME to Orlando. Typically I book my flights for April/May in December/Jan. time frame. Well, I booked them yesterday via Portland because our new carrier, Allegiant Airlines promised $99 flights to and from Orlando. That lasted about a month and now the cheapest ticket is $124 each way. I chose to grab the flights out of Portland on AirTran at the $99 rate figuring they can only really go up from there.


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## camachinist (Oct 16, 2007)

Using historical data from canned routes I use for domestic and international mileage runs, I predict fare sale fares to be 10-15% higher on those routes, with international leading the pack. 

That said, on some routes, I'm seeing par or even reductions in fares over a year ago, absent sales, likely due to some incursions by LLC's like VX's new service.

Overall, cherry-picking the best fares will be more difficult, IMO.

Pat


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## bigrick (Oct 17, 2007)

I miss the good ol' years immediately after 9/11 when airfare was cheap.  I certainly don't want another attack here but I do miss those fares.

As some airlines boost their fares, maybe there'll be a bigger pool of travellers for LCCs.  Competition always seems to lower prices.


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## Carolinian (Oct 17, 2007)

On this side of the pond, the European LCC's are still pumping out the great fares.  I picked up tickets to Rome a couple of weeks ago on Wizz Air with free air fare, just pay the taxes and fees.  Ryanair had one even better, with absolutely free tickets, not even charging for taxes and fees, but the routes and dates were more limited so I did not find anything I could use.


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## spatenfloot (Oct 17, 2007)

Since I use Southwest, I book flights right away. I can always rebook later if the price goes down or there is a DING sale and get a credit for the difference.


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## Pat H (Oct 17, 2007)

Carolinian said:


> On this side of the pond, the European LCC's are still pumping out the great fares.  I picked up tickets to Rome a couple of weeks ago on Wizz Air with free air fare, just pay the taxes and fees.  Ryanair had one even better, with absolutely free tickets, not even charging for taxes and fees, but the routes and dates were more limited so I did not find anything I could use.



Steve, are you now living in Europe?


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## Carolinian (Oct 18, 2007)

Pat H said:


> Steve, are you now living in Europe?



Yes, I took a position with an NGO in eastern Europe in August.


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## Carolinian (Oct 18, 2007)

*Another rock bottom fare in Europe*

I just received an email from Germanwings announcing a special with a fare of zero euros, just pay taxes and fees, and 100,000 seats on offer between October and February at that price.  They fly some places that are useful for me, so I will see if I can nab some zero fares I can use.


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## Pat H (Oct 18, 2007)

Carolinian said:


> Yes, I took a position with an NGO in eastern Europe in August.



An NGO would be??????


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## Dave M (Oct 18, 2007)

NGO = non-governmental organization


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## thinze3 (Oct 18, 2007)

I just booked flights to Mexico (PVR) yesterday for next March. I have watched these prices and others for about three weeks hoping for some sort of discount or price drop. No Luck. I had to pay $665/person RT.

This is way more than originally budgeted. I agree that prices will continue to rise.

This flight was available for 35K miles coach or 60K miles business class if I were a bit more flexible. Makes me believe that as soon as I become an empty nester, my Marriott Rewards Points are going to become more valuable.


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## Bruce W (Oct 18, 2007)

*EWR to MCO May 2008*

Anyone going to see the mouse in May 2008, Continental has flights from Newark to Orlando for $138 plus taxes, non stop.

Won't find any lower than that.


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## bobcat (Oct 18, 2007)

Bruce W said:


> Anyone going to see the mouse in May 2008, Continental has flights from Newark to Orlando for $138 plus taxes, non stop.
> 
> Won't find any lower than that.



Oil hit almost 90 a barrel today. The fares will go up big time.


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## camachinist (Oct 18, 2007)

I'm seeing new fares with huge dumps that should be loading in the GDS as I write this. Example: SEA-MCO for 104+ (145 all-in); yes, that's round trip from Seattle to Orlando Florida 

Many other examples abound. We just got done with a round of sub 300.00 HNL fares from many points east and now this. Mileage runner heaven 

Pat


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## John Cummings (Oct 19, 2007)

No, I do not wait at all. I purchase my tickets when I feel like it regardless of the price. I purchased our tickets for next April from LAX to Cancun about a month ago. I wanted to make sure that I could get first class on Alaska airlines which I did.


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## Jwerking (Oct 21, 2007)

Carolinian said:


> Yes, I took a position with an NGO in eastern Europe in August.



Wow, that is ultimately awesome, Carolinian.  A bit different from the Research Triangle, huh?  Gosh, I would love to do something like that - I really enjoyed my 3 month work exchange to the UK.  Werr you required to have language fluency in the native language?


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## falmouth3 (Oct 21, 2007)

I've been looking for a super inexpensive trip just to get a few miles added to my ff account to get over a mileage threshold.  I've been checking e-fares, those low last minute flights on weekends to get those miles.  I've been seeing $75 each way trips from Manchester to Phila. on US Airways.  This morning I was playing around with some options and found $49 fares so I'm doing a quick turnaround in Nov.  I don't understand why that fare was so low, but I grabbed it. 

Gets me my 1K status on United because of their partnership.   

Sue


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## bogey21 (Oct 21, 2007)

I decide what I'm willing to pay for a particular trip.  Example: I'll pay $200 for DFW-FLL-DFW.  If I see it for that price or lower,  I buy it.  If it never shows up at say $200 - $210, I just cancel the trip and move on to the next one.  Rarely happens, but when  it does I just add up what I didn't spend for air, car, lodging, parking, etc.  I figure this is money in the bank for my next trip.  On rare occasions I will lose RCI Exchange fee and value of Points lost or MF of my Week.  Bottom line is that I will not pay an airline more than I think a flight is worth.  

Last time I had to cancel a trip was Myrtle Beach earlier this year when sum of Airfare and Car Rental exceeded my limit using Charlotte, Myrtle Beach and Raleigh Durham airports.  Cost me a  $396 MF but I didn't spend aprx $500 for sum of air, car, parking, etc. Maybe next year. Who knows?

GEORGE


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## joestein (Oct 21, 2007)

Bruce W said:


> Anyone going to see the mouse in May 2008, Continental has flights from Newark to Orlando for $138 plus taxes, non stop.
> 
> Won't find any lower than that.



YES YOU WILL!!!!!

We are also going to see the mouse in May 2008.  But we will be spending a few nights afterwards at my parent's house in Delray Beach, so we will return from Ft. Lauderdale.

This morning I booked EWR to MCO for $89/person and the return flight from FLL for $69/person with Continental.

The entire round trip for my family (4 total) came to $715 including taxes!

Joe


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## gsturtz (Oct 21, 2007)

It sounds like y'all are in violent agreement.  

One way from FL =$69 ($138 RT)= _*lowest rate *_(+ taxes and fees)

Since Inbound is $89, RT=$158

Looks like $138 is the lowest!


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## Carol C (Oct 21, 2007)

I'm waiting and watching for a reasonable fare to Europe this coming summer. I keep thinking if oil hits $100/barrel all bets will be off with airfares, international and domestic. With the euro at an alltime high against the US dollar, it all adds up to European vacations looking like luxury trips. If I do make it to Europe it may be my last such trip for a long time.


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## Carolinian (Oct 22, 2007)

Jwerking said:


> Wow, that is ultimately awesome, Carolinian.  A bit different from the Research Triangle, huh?  Gosh, I would love to do something like that - I really enjoyed my 3 month work exchange to the UK.  Werr you required to have language fluency in the native language?



No, all of my local staff are fluent in English, so they can translate when needed.


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## joestein (Oct 22, 2007)

gsturtz said:


> It sounds like y'all are in violent agreement.
> 
> One way from FL =$69 ($138 RT)= _*lowest rate *_(+ taxes and fees)
> 
> ...



I took his message to be $138 each way, not round trip, but I could be wrong.

I price Continental earlier this week and the prices roundtrip were over $400 per person.  I thought I was very lucky to get this price.

Joe


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## Bruce W (Oct 22, 2007)

*$138*

$138 was for round trip, should have been clearer.   By the way, I searched my dates using Your Itinerary and got $128!!!!!.

The day before the $138 came up, I also saw almost $400 RT.


Bruce W


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## gsturtz (Oct 22, 2007)

we should have a Forum similar to sightings for airfare.  I'm dreading $4k+ for DW & kids VA to HI in July.  If anyone sees a $138 RT, PM Me!


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## Carolinian (Oct 23, 2007)

What will really bring some of these fares down to earth is getting some European LCC's or at least their style of operating into the US market, and that is already starting.  Virgin America is already off the ground.  An even cheaper LCC, RyanAir, is planning to go into trans-Atlantic operations and the business channels on this side of the pond have reported that they are also in the planning stages of a US domestic airline.  Obviously they will have to work around the foreign ownership rules as Branson did with Virgin America.


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## silverfox82 (Oct 23, 2007)

A few months ago a friend asked to get her a price on AA JFK/SXM nonstop, sat to sat. Price was low $500's with tax. Next day went up $70, next week another $50. today $791.60. I think if you see a price you can live with, buy it and don't have remorse if it goes down.


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## Dave M (Oct 23, 2007)

I agree. LCCs could result in lower U.S. fares - eventually. But not right away - at least not for most trips.

Here, from today's Wall Street Journal, are some excerpts from a story on higher U.S. airfares.

Regarding the year's remaining holiday seasons:





> Ticket sellers say smart consumers bought early for Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday trips this year. Now, prices are up, and the number of open seats is down. Spurred by higher fuel prices, many airlines have boosted fares in recent weeks. And with some big airlines still cutting domestic capacity and demand for tickets running high, especially to beach destinations, the availability of cheap holiday seats has dwindled, experts says.


Regarding available seats versus demand:





> ...on the whole, capacity is up only slightly, and not growing as fast as demand. For the first seven months of the year, airline capacity, measured in available seat-miles, was up 2.8%, but passenger traffic was up 3.3% as more seats were filled.... That's allowed airlines to boost fares and stay profitable amid rising oil prices.


And, as the title of this thread asks, should you wait to buy those tickets?





> "This is the first time we've ever seen people booking so early," says Amy Ziff, Travelocity's travel analyst. "People are definitely onto the fact that travel costs more and you have to buy early to get a seat."


And...





> ...it's not just the winter holiday period. Steve Cosgrove, president of Dynamic Travel & Cruises Inc., says he's now seeing double the volume at his Southlake, Texas, travel agency for trips for spring and summer of 2008, compared with the same period last year.


Draw your own conclusions, but don't take too long doing it if you have tickets you need to buy!


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## TerriJ (Oct 23, 2007)

Because it is for our 25th anniversary, I went ahead and booked Hawaii tickets for next June.  It makes me nervous to wait and think they might be even more expensive.


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## Carolinian (Oct 26, 2007)

Another issue that can sometimes hurt in waiting is that all of the seats in the lower fare classes may be sold and even if the airline announces a lower fare for those fare classes, there may be no seats left in those classes on the days you want.  All airlines have multiple fare classes of coach seats, all at different prices and with different restrictions.

As to seats selling out, I have been looking at tickets for family members on airlines I usually don't look at for myself because of ff miles issues, and was surprised at how many flights on trans-Atlantic LCC Iceland Air were already sold out, at least on the routes I looked at, for February and March.  I also encountered some flights on Air France that were sold out for some days in that period.  Flights are usually wide open for that period.


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## falmouth3 (Oct 26, 2007)

*airfare to Phoenix*

I needed an airfare on United to PHX in Sept. 2008.  These are the fares that I found for the same round trip flights:
Sunday  $325
Monday  $387
Tuesday $305 - I put a hold on it
Wed.      $487 - I booked the $305 fare
Thurs and Fri - $447

The flights are basically empty so I found the price fluctuation really interesting.  It's not load factors changing the prices.

Sue


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## Myrtle (Oct 30, 2007)

*Anyone watching fares to Florence Italy?*

Hi, Have plans for a first time trip to Italy in Aug. 08. Flying from Denver is pricey, UA has a flight through Germany that is great time wise at 12 hours.  Other lines I've checked go up to 16 hours or so. I've been seeing fares of $1600 and more for coach which seems very expensive.  Can any of you tell what would be a reasonable fare?   If 1600 is the going rate I will just bite the bullet and book.
Thanks in advance,
Myrtle


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## camachinist (Oct 30, 2007)

Got any frequent flyer miles? You could burn 25K r/t DEN-IAD and fly Iberia or TAP for about 500.00 less. Not a bad burn.

Or, if you can get to NYC:



> Routing Details
> Search: 	Departing NYC on 08/20/08 for FCO
> Fare basis code WFLYAB
> Flying LT
> ...



Or, call a consolidator 

Pat


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## Jimster (Oct 31, 2007)

*florence*

You might also consider flying into Pisa.  Delta services Pisa and its not that far from Pisa to Florence-an easy train ride.


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## Myrtle (Oct 31, 2007)

*Thanks for Italy airfare tips*

Both of you had good ideas and I will start looking at alternative airports.  Was hoping to use my ff miles for business class upgrades so may have to pay full fare coach to get that done.  Our ultimate destination is Chianti so will have to take a train from Florence anyway which makes Pisa a good alternative.


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## winger (Oct 31, 2007)

camachinist said:


> ...
> 
> Or, call a consolidator
> 
> Pat


 What is a 'consolidator'?


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## Dave M (Oct 31, 2007)

A consolidator is essentially a travel agency that specializes in buying seats from airlines - typically seats that might not otherwise be occupied - at huge discounts and selling them to the public at prices that are discounted to rates that are lower than what you can find through the airline or Internet search sites.

The advantage is the lower fare.

The disadvantages are several, but include the fact that the tickets are typically non-refundable and non-changeable. That means if your flight is today and you have a problem that delays you until tomorrow, your ticket is worthless. In contrast, if you had purchased your ticket from the airline or an authorized seller (e.g., Orbitz or Travelocity), you could cancel today's flight and, paying a change fee, use the value of that ticket for another trip. Typically, consolidator tickets don't earn frequent flyer miles. In some cases, you can't reserve a seat in advance, meaning that you might well get stuck in a middle seat.

You can often find consolidator ads in the Travel section of big-city Sunday newspapers. They are usually very small ads – often only an inch or two high - with very, very low prices. Also, if you use the word *consolidator* as a Google search term, you’ll get hits for a number of such agencies.


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## Carolinian (Oct 31, 2007)

Whether consolidator tickets earn air miles depends on the airline, and that is one of the few areas that US-based carriers are better than their European competitors.  I have bought quite a few consolidator tickets from several different consolidators for flights across the pond on NW and DL and never had a problem getting my ff miles.  If in doubt, ask the consolidator if the ticket will earn miles.


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## Dave M (Oct 31, 2007)

Adding....

Priceline and Hotwire are two well-known examples of consolidators.


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## brp (Oct 31, 2007)

Carolinian said:


> Whether consolidator tickets earn air miles depends on the airline, and that is one of the few areas that US-based carriers are better than their European competitors.  I have bought quite a few consolidator tickets from several different consolidators for flights across the pond on NW and DL and never had a problem getting my ff miles.  If in doubt, ask the consolidator if the ticket will earn miles.



Be careful with this. On some airlines the rules for earning miles are quite arcane...on the order of "tickets booked in this class earn miles unless between these destinations while this other class as the following, partially overlapping set of restrictions." It is possible that, even with the best of intentions, any individual at the consolidator company may not know the answer.

Cheers.


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## winger (Oct 31, 2007)

Am I correct in assuming that consolidators won't be having much inventory for summer weeks to/from Hawaii, or any other popular destinations/times?


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## Dave M (Oct 31, 2007)

Not necessarily. If you're willing to take the risks associated with consolidator tickets, go ahead and try. 

Start with Hotwire and Priceline - today. You aren't committed unless and until you accept their offer. Before using either, it's best to study how the systems work at www.BiddingforTravel.com and www.BetterBidding.com


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## Carolinian (Oct 31, 2007)

brp said:


> Be careful with this. On some airlines the rules for earning miles are quite arcane...on the order of "tickets booked in this class earn miles unless between these destinations while this other class as the following, partially overlapping set of restrictions." It is possible that, even with the best of intentions, any individual at the consolidator company may not know the answer.
> 
> Cheers.



To be certain, simply ask the consolidator what fare class the tickets will be, and then look on the carriers website to see if that fare class is entitled to miles.  With the fares classes sold on most US carriers by consolidators, they are so entitled, but the safest thing is to 1) ask  and 2) check.

Many of the European carriers in the last couple of years have not only cut miles on consolidator tickets, but often on many of the cheaper fare classes sold by the airline itself.

I suppose one could stretch the definition of consolidator to include Priceline and Hotwire, but they are not what I would consider a traditional consolidator.


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## Carolinian (Oct 31, 2007)

winger said:


> Am I correct in assuming that consolidators won't be having much inventory for summer weeks to/from Hawaii, or any other popular destinations/times?




Traditional consolidators deal mostly in international tickets rather than domestic tickets.  For those, you might need to use an operator like Hotwire or Priceline.

For trans-Atlantic tickets, I have found that consolidators generally saved you the most money in shoulder season - spring and fall.  In summer, they had tickets availible but the savings over the airline were minimal.  They had tickets in winter season, but airline sale fares then often beat the consolidator price.  Only if there was not an airline sale on in winter did consolidators save you money.


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## Ann-Marie (Oct 31, 2007)

We are also going to visit Mickey in May.  I have seen $197 R/T from LGA.  Anything lower than that is connecting.  Those who got the really low fares from Newark, are they nonstop?


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