# What are the opportunities available in the new Marriott program?



## BocaBum99 (Jun 21, 2010)

Okay, we now have several threads about the New Marriott Points program.  We have at least the following:

1) Information thread:  What is it?

2) Pros thread:  What is good about it?

3) Cons thread: What is bad about it?

4) Vote thread: Who will be converting vs. not?

I haven't had time to review the program in detail, but we now need to have an opportunities thread.  What are the ways to leverage this program to the benefit of current and future owners.  Where can we arbitrage it?

Without having reviewed it in detail.  Here are some of potential areas would consider looking:

1) If you own lots of resale Marriott's now, it may be a good idea to pay the one time fee and upgrade all of your weeks.  You get in at a bargain base price.  You lock in the fees and you become a VIP member with added benefits.  It seems that of those who are going to do it, tend to have many weeks now.

2) I am not sure if "external" weeks means all resales or if it includes weeks bought from an authorized broker.  If authorized broker points can be converted into the program, this may be an interesting loophole.

3) Given how the points program is structured, it's a lot like the Diamond Trust where you buy points, but if you don't buy into the Club at time of transfer, then you don't have anything useful.  That is a crock.  But, what it will do over time is create a large number of Marriott points owners who will want to get rid of them and will have to sell at rock bottom price.  The opportunity is NOT to buy points from Marriott.  But, to buy them resale in a year or two.  But, even then, at the maintenance fees they want to charge, I don't even think it will be worth it at that time either.  If there is an opportunity, that will be it.

Since there appears to be no loophole for Flexchange, this program isn't very useful to me.  I doubt I'll buy into it.

At first glance, I am very surprised at this Marriott program.  It is not what I would have expected from Marriott.  It's a rather weak program.  Their product managers must see a way that they will make a ton of money on it.  

The dramatic increase in maintenance fees is very alarming.  It actually does all of us a service that Marriott set them like they did.  I expected them to subsidize the maintenance fees to start and then increase them by 10% or more per year until they were at the right level.  Either they weren't smart enough to do that, or they did and it's a lot worse than we thought.

I'll be interested in seeing how successful this program is with the market.  I'll probably go to a sales presentation to see how they pitch it.  

It is quite a stinker.


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## BocaBum99 (Jun 21, 2010)

We have to play close attention to MF/point.  There will some arbitrage opportunity here.

I believe that part of the reason why it appears that there is a Marriott point skimming conspiracy is that Marriott had a big problem in setting point levels vis-a-vis maintenance fees.

One of the biggest issues with a weeks based system is that maintenance fees are set by week and not by season.  If you give differential value for a platinum vs. a Silver week), then platinum owner end up paying more maintenance fees than Silvers.  So, in the assignment of points, that is somewhat being reflected there.

The analysis that needs to be done is comparing current resale week maintenance fees vs. points allocated for those weeks.  And, compare them to the overall program MF of $.40/point.

If the MF for across all Club inventory is $.40/point, then trading into those resorts is actually a bargain for exchangers who pay much less than that.  There is arbitrage there.  Whether or not that arbitrage is meaningful is yet to be seen.  But, the analysis needs to be done.


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## wuv pooh (Jun 21, 2010)

Currently see two opportunities and two potential benefits:

1. For each of my weeks there are now weeks that I can exchange to that are less than the points I have been allocated in the same season.  This is an arbitrage opportunity to accumulate the extra points I would need to exchange into prime weeks at other resorts.

2. Sun-Thur stays in the new system are substantially cheaper as are 1 Bd stays.  Depending on inventory, I can stretch points.  I will have to change my usage pattern.  Ex.

Spend 5 days Sun-Thur at Newport Coast
Go to San Diego for 2 days at Downtown Marriott
Return to Newport for 5 more days

Got to HHI for 5 days
Hit Williamsburg for 2 days or continue on to Orlando at a cheaper resort for another week.

Etc.

3. I can now reserve the view I want.  Previously for exchanges I was at the mercy of the resort.  It usually worked out well for me, but not always.  Now if I consider Ocean Front important I can spend the points to guarantee it.

4. I think they will have to introduce some form of Flex Change to soak up days unless they think they can rent them profitably short term.


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## RedDogSD (Jun 21, 2010)

wuv pooh said:


> Currently see two opportunities and two potential benefits:
> 
> 1. For each of my weeks there are now weeks that I can exchange to that are less than the points I have been allocated in the same season.  This is an arbitrage opportunity to accumulate the extra points I would need to exchange into prime weeks at other resorts.
> 
> ...



I think that using the Su-Th opportunity is a good way to stretch your points, but when traveling with family, it is really inconvenient to pack up and move more than once.   If I did it, I would use my points for Su-Th and use Priceline to save BIG BUCKS on the weekend stays.  The way that Marriott is using 3x as many points for weekend stays is basically Rack Rate.  

For my resort (DSV I, Red), I could use Priceline to stay at the JW Marriott on the weekend (I have done this before although I cannot guarantee that I will get the JW as there are other resorts in the area that participate) and use points to stay M-Th in a One Bedroom (we own a 2, but only need a 1) for 275 points per night (1375 for 5 days during PRIME season).  We could do this once during Prime season (1375), once during Semi Prime season (1125) and still have 700 points left which can get me 4 or 5 nights during Summer (5 if I can buy 50 points)

If I did that, I would be getting 14 or 15 nights in a 1 bedroom.  

Now, before I start talking myself into this, I realize that I currently can lock off, spend 7 nights in my 1 bedroom side (including Friday and Saturday), and also either spend 7 nights in my Studio side (paying only the Lock off fee), or pay $109 and spend second 7 nights in 1 bedroom (using an II Exchange), then I realize that I am not getting a good deal after all.  So, no thanks Marriott.  You will not be getting my money.


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## BocaBum99 (Jun 21, 2010)

wuv pooh said:


> Currently see two opportunities and two potential benefits:
> 
> 1. For each of my weeks there are now weeks that I can exchange to that are less than the points I have been allocated in the same season.  This is an arbitrage opportunity to accumulate the extra points I would need to exchange into prime weeks at other resorts.
> 
> ...



This is a good example.  You get more days usage that you would have in the past.  You are okay with any potential trade downs.  In some cases, the point values may be misaligned so that you actually get a small trade up.

I would evaluate these opportunities in two different ways and compare them..

First,  would calculate what the MF would be for the 10 nights vs. 7 nights to see if I came out ahead.

Second, I would see what an equivalent rental would cost me.

Those two data points would give me an idea if I am trading up or down from a "value" point of view. I may be trading down seasonally or size wise.  But, I could be trading up from a value point of view.


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## BocaBum99 (Jun 21, 2010)

RedDogSD said:


> I think that using the Su-Th opportunity is a good way to stretch your points, but when traveling with family, it is really inconvenient to pack up and move more than once.   If I did it, I would use my points for Su-Th and use Priceline to save BIG BUCKS on the weekend stays.  The way that Marriott is using 3x as many points for weekend stays is basically Rack Rate.
> 
> For my resort (DSV I, Red), I could use Priceline to stay at the JW Marriott on the weekend (I have done this before although I cannot guarantee that I will get the JW as there are other resorts in the area that participate) and use points to stay M-Th in a One Bedroom (we own a 2, but only need a 1) for 275 points per night (1375 for 5 days during PRIME season).  We could do this once during Prime season (1375), once during Semi Prime season (1125) and still have 700 points left which can get me 4 or 5 nights during Summer (5 if I can buy 50 points)
> 
> ...



This may be a reason for me to join.  It depends on the apples-to-apples value I receive for Sun-Thursday stays.  I don't mind staying at Ko-Olina for 3 nights during the week.  If it is cheap enough, it could be worth it.

I would wait for resale points to sell for $1/point.  5000 points at $1/point would be $5000 plus $2000 transfer fee = $7000.  With MF of $.40/point, I would need at least 20 nights in a 2br unit for this to be a great deal.  What does Ko'Olina or MOC cost for Sun-Thurs?


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## RedDogSD (Jun 21, 2010)

BocaBum99 said:


> This may be a reason for me to join.  It depends on the apples-to-apples value I receive for Sun-Thursday stays.



If I did not own a lockoff, this would make it worth it.  That is why I never bought at NCV.  I love that resort, but I prefer lock offs to get more nights/MF dollar spent.  In the new points system, it is like having a lock off if you use your larger units on Su-Thur.  You can get almost twice as many nights.  For me, with a lock off, not so much.



BocaBum99 said:


> I What does Ko'Olina or MOC cost for Sun-Thurs?



You said 2br.  I will assume you don't care about view and give you the basic cost for Garden or Island View.

MOC
As low as 600 points per night (Su-Th) during parts of Jan, Apr, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec.
As high as 825 points per night (Su-Th) during the end of the year, or 725 points per night during other prime seasons.

Ko'Olina
As low as 500 points per night, some 575 and 600 points per night times of the year, and worst case of 700 points per night during end of the year.


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## BocaBum99 (Jun 21, 2010)

RedDogSD said:


> If I did not own a lockoff, this would make it worth it.  That is why I never bought at NCV.  I love that resort, but I prefer lock offs to get more nights/MF dollar spent.  In the new points system, it is like having a lock off if you use your larger units on Su-Thur.  You can get almost twice as many nights.  For me, with a lock off, not so much.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That is very pricey if you own Trust Points.  At 500 points per night, that would be $200/night in MF for an undesirable view and $240/night for a decent view.  If they had discounted stays within 30 or 60 days, it might be worth it.

HGVC HHV Open Season is a much better deal and a much better resort.

Might be worth looking at resale conversions with Points/MF at $.25/point or less.


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## RedDogSD (Jun 21, 2010)

BocaBum99 said:


> That is very pricey if you own Trust Points.  At 500 points per night, that would be $200/night in MF for an undesirable view and $240/night for a decent view.



I never gave you any quotes for a decent view.  It is 750 to 1175 points per night for OV at MOC.

It is 625 to 875 for OV at Ko'Olina.


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## BocaBum99 (Jun 21, 2010)

RedDogSD said:


> I never gave you any quotes for a decent view.  It is 750 to 1175 points per night for OV at MOC.
> 
> It is 625 to 875 for OV at Ko'Olina.



If those are the rates, it would be worth it to me if my MF/point were about $.15.  There are many owners who have MFs in that range.  

There are some conversions that will make sense.  I am out of position on this one, so I won't be able to take advantage of a conversion.  But, others might and they might want to "gift" them out to other owners here on TUG.


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## RedDogSD (Jun 21, 2010)

BocaBum99 said:


> If those are the rates, it would be worth it to me if my MF/point were about $.15.  There are many owners who have MFs in that range.



Many?  The only really cheap one I heard about was Mountain Side at .18/point.  I did not see many .15/point ownerships although I guess I should look at the thread again.


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## BocaBum99 (Jun 21, 2010)

RedDogSD said:


> Many?  The only really cheap one I heard about was Mountain Side at .18/point.  I did not see many .15/point ownerships although I guess I should look at the thread again.



There are many owners there.  Everyone of them should consider converting.

There also seems to be a good opportunity at Timber Lodge.  I am sure there are others.  The resorts listed are just a small sampling of the total population and in that small sample, there were already 2 good options.


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## BocaBum99 (Jun 22, 2010)

Here is another potential opportunity. If Marriott allows transfer of points between accounts, it will be possible to rent those points for below MF from owners and use them at below cost.  

Not sure what their policy will be in this area, though.


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## dioxide45 (Jun 22, 2010)

BocaBum99 said:


> =
> Might be worth looking at resale conversions with Points/MF at $.25/point or less.



Currently this is not an option. If I enroll and then sell my interest, the enrollment doesn't go with the interest. Enrollment by a weeks owner is a contract between the current owner and Marriott. There is no provision currently allowing new buyers of weeks after 6/20/10 to enroll in the new exchange program.


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## BocaBum99 (Jun 23, 2010)

dioxide45 said:


> Currently this is not an option. If I enroll and then sell my interest, the enrollment doesn't go with the interest. Enrollment by a weeks owner is a contract between the current owner and Marriott. There is no provision currently allowing new buyers of weeks after 6/20/10 to enroll in the new exchange program.



I know that.  I am saying it is an opportunity for those who already own weeks with $MF/point < $.25/point.


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## jerseygirl (Jun 23, 2010)

dioxide45 said:


> Currently this is not an option. If I enroll and then sell my interest, the enrollment doesn't go with the interest. Enrollment by a weeks owner is a contract between the current owner and Marriott. There is no provision currently allowing new buyers of weeks after 6/20/10 to enroll in the new exchange program.



I'm sure a retail purchase (1000 points, 1500 points?) will get a resale in, but it's unknown at this point whether or not they will allow only one resale per 1000/1500 points.  In its earliest days, Starwood allowed you to bring in an unlimited number of resales with the smallest purchase (e.g., EOY silver week).  Over time, they added more and more restrictions.  First, it was buy any one week (even the cheapest) and bring anything in .... buy any two weeks, bring 2 in, etc.  Then, there were minimum $ amount purchases to bring one in (a "retro" in Starwood terms).  Then, as the economy tanked and sales were slow, they appeared to loosen the restrictions again but there was not enough activity reported to really get a handle on what was being allowed (and Starwood isn't exactly known for applying consistent policies!).  It will be interesting to see how this plays out with Marriott.


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## BocaBum99 (Jun 23, 2010)

jerseygirl said:


> I'm sure a retail purchase (1000 points, 1500 points?) will get a resale in, but it's unknown at this point whether or not they will allow only one resale per 1000/1500 points.  In its earliest days, Starwood allowed you to bring in an unlimited number of resales with the smallest purchase (e.g., EOY silver week).  Over time, they added more and more restrictions.  First, it was buy any one week (even the cheapest) and bring anything in .... buy any two weeks, bring 2 in, etc.  Then, there were minimum $ amount purchases to bring one in (a "retro" in Starwood terms).  Then, as the economy tanked and sales were slow, they appeared to loosen the restrictions again but there was not enough activity reported to really get a handle on what was being allowed (and Starwood isn't exactly known for applying consistent policies!).  It will be interesting to see how this plays out with Marriott.



yes, this may be a good option.  But, only if you are actually enrolling the resale week instead of trading it in for pure points.  I hope they have this option. Sounds like it's time to attend a Marriott owner update.


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## suzannesimon (Aug 4, 2010)

*Skimming Gone Temporarily?*

I just returned from a 2 week vacation.  Before I left, I checked what points I would get if I joined the points program.  I own holiday weeks at MFC and there wasn't a single Caribbean resort that I could exchange to for the same or fewer points in Week 51.  I just checked again.  An example: my 3 bedroom is worth 6250 points and to get the same week MFC is showing as 5075 points.  Am I missing something here?  I'm sure this is a temporary situation since they can change the points charged at any time, but it appears they are now giving us a "deal".


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## DanCali (Aug 4, 2010)

suzannesimon said:


> I just returned from a 2 week vacation.  Before I left, I checked what points I would get if I joined the points program.  I own holiday weeks at MFC and there wasn't a single Caribbean resort that I could exchange to for the same or fewer points in Week 51.  I just checked again.  An example: my 3 bedroom is worth 6250 points and to get the same week MFC is showing as 5075 points.  Am I missing something here?  I'm sure this is a temporary situation since they can change the points charged at any time, but it appears they are now giving us a "deal".



The points tables used to show 6700 points needed for week 51 at MFC for a 3BR. 5075 is week 51 at Waiohai in a 2BR IV... did you check the right resort?


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## suzannesimon (Aug 4, 2010)

When I clicked On "What is my week worth?"  I get 

DestinationVilla TypeVista/ViewSeasonPointsFrenchman's Cove
Inventory ID UV*0524*51*B
2BR + 2BA
Ocean Side View
PLAT PLUS-HOLIDAY
4600Frenchman's Cove
Inventory ID UV*0561*51*B
3BR + 3BA
Ocean Side View
PLAT PLUS-HOLIDAY
6250Total Points Available:10850

When I then enter MFC below to check the points needed for Dec 19-26, 3 BR, 7 nights, it says Points Required 5075.


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## suzannesimon (Aug 4, 2010)

I get it now.  The daily rate for Dec 19-23 is only 525/nt and 2 nts @  1225/nt.  On the daily rate I come out better. Cool.  I think I'll join.  The points system works better for Wk 51.


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## ral (Aug 5, 2010)

Looks like you have a real find for year 2010. 

Looking at year 2011, if you do a Friday check-in (Dec. 23, 2011 - includes Christmas day), it will cost 6700 points, a Saturday check-in (Dec. 17, 2011 - no Christmas day) will cost 4075 points, a Sunday check-in (Dec. 18, 2011 - check-out on Christmas day) will cost 5075 points. 

For year 2012, if you do a Friday check-in (Dec. 21, 2012 - includes Christmas day), it will cost 6700 points, a Saturday check-in (Dec. 22, 2012 - includes Christmas day) will cost 7000 points, a Sunday check-in (Dec. 16, 2012 - no Christmas day) will cost 5075 points.

There are many factors that enter into this particular scenario. For example, does one want to be at the destination on Christmas Day? If so, for years, 2011 and 2012, you will need at least 6700 points. If there are school aged children involved, when do they begin their winter break? 

This was only written to show an apples to apples situation with regard to weeks check-in days of Friday, Saturday, or Sunday to points check-in days that are the same. There will be various permutations to this if using different points check-in dates.


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## Herb33 (Aug 20, 2010)

We bought into the new program at the 1,000 pt level.  We're 2-week 2BR/OF owners at Ocean Pointe.  We book & occupy those weeks consecutively in May or Sep every other year.  We will most likely continue to do that.  In the alternate years we will convert one, both, or neither of our OP weeks to the NEW points.  It'll depend on how much vacation time we have and what we want to do with it.  We DO like the added flexibility of using the NEW points for shorter mid-week trips to places we enjoy but where a whole week is just too much; e.g., Boston, Orlando, Vegas, Hilton Head.  If we only use the NEW points every other year, that means we'll have at least 2,000 to work with, plus 3,875 for each OP week we choose to convert.  (BTW, that's more NEW points than required to book a 2BR/OF week at OP in May or Sep.)

Yes, yes, I know, for the green-eyeshade bottom-line purists, I'm sure there are cheaper ways to do the kinds of things we plan to do with this new level of flexibility.  But we've come to appreciate the intangibles of vacationing with MVC.  For us it's all about how WE like to plan & execute our vacations and how the experience measures up to our expectations.  After 14 years I can honestly say MVC has never let us down.  The worst vacation we've had -- the only BAD vacation we've had -- since becoming MVC owners in 1997 was the one and only time we traded outside the Marriott system.   Don't get me started on that. :annoyed: 

So ... we rolled the dice on the new program for the minimum 1,000 points.  We'll see how it works out.  But I'm not gonna lose sleep over the fine print.


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