# Anyone making 'sell everything' market moves?



## Passepartout (Aug 24, 2015)

With the current stock market dive, is anybody panicking? I am positioned pretty defensively, but still it's unnerving to see the precipitous decline. I really don't want to sit and watch another 2007-style drop in assets, waiting for it to reverse direction.

Jim


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## SMHarman (Aug 24, 2015)

Advice After Stock Market Drop: Take Some Deep Breaths, Don’t Do a Thing http://nyti.ms/1JyWI0f

This should not be age dependent advice because your portfolio mix of equity and cash and bonds and social security annuity was already proper. 

My biggest grumble in this is I put my entire August 1 paycheck into my 401k to catch up post tax refund and that took a hit. 

Sent from my LT26i using Tapatalk


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## x3 skier (Aug 24, 2015)

Not me. Whatever is left after the continuing mandatory withdrawals of my IRA's and 401k's after I go are for the kids. It's sort of a lottery for them in addition to my life insurance. 

With my pension, SS and LTC Insurance, I don't need it so I let it ride. Did that back in the last drop and no big deal since it pretty well balanced as it is. 

Cheers


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## csxjohn (Aug 24, 2015)

I've been waiting for a temporary drop so I can move some from my 401K to my Roth IRA so it can rebound tax free.


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## am1 (Aug 24, 2015)

Only have a few stocks.  Almost needed to sell them in May to make a purchase but did not need to.  Could have sold in June or July to make another purchase but never pull the trigger.  Regretting that now.


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## PigsDad (Aug 24, 2015)

Two words:  buying opportunity.

There are some stocks and sectors that have been beat up lately and I personally will be looking at some entry points.  Energy stocks are of particular interest to me right now -- they have lost a lot of value, and the dividend rates at current prices are very tempting.  Oil will not stay this low for a long time, IMO.

I am guessing I have a longer-term timeframe than most people here (I have no need to tap my portfolios for 10+ years), so I'm sure my focus is a bit different than others.

Kurt


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## WinniWoman (Aug 24, 2015)

I have a lot of stock and bond mutual funds and ETF's- mostly in IRA's, my 401k and a brokerage account. I am 59 and hubby is 61. We both still work. 

I think it is awful how people our age have to worry about this crap. Makes me sick to my stomach. Years ago (I know- that was then- this is now) people had pensions and CD's/savings accounts were earning big interest. Those are now non-existent for the majority of people. 

Now- there are no choices of where to put your money to beat inflation and be protected at the same time. You are forced into investing in the stock market. I had been buying I-Bonds monthly- but even those are now earning a negative interest rate so I have stopped that.

I really don't know what to do. I have no pension. Hubby's private pension was cut off at the knees (he has been at job 17 years, so doesn't have a big one anyway as it is-can't live on it). Our IRA's and brokerage accounts are in a multitude of investments (with the same financial company at least). It is mind boggling to me where I would even start if I had to liquidate each and every one of them and then where to put all THAT money! . In 2008 I liquidated at the lowest point in the market- after holding on for so long- but I "broke". We lost so much money and had to start over and wait so long for the market to come back up. I don't think I can take this again. We have done well considering, and with the help of a small inheritance also, which is invested in stock and bond mutual funds in a beneficiary IRA. Now what?


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## "Roger" (Aug 24, 2015)

Let me see... If I had invested right after the market was down 1000, I would be up 2.5% right now.  Then again, if I had invested over the weekend (bottom fishing), I would be down 2.5% (presuming that I did not panic and sell at down 1000 in which case I would be down 5%). Then again, the market might well turn up/down again as the day progresses.  Anticipating that, I should buy/sell right now. Of course, if I sold five days ago, and put the money in bonds, the experts say that I would lose money given that the bond market is likely to fall as interest rates go up. Still ...

Diversify, invest for the long run, and hope for the best. No guarantees.


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## WinniWoman (Aug 24, 2015)

The FED said today they are going to hold off on raising the interest rates yet again. FOX News just preempted all their regular programming to report on this.  This might not be the BIG crash, but I still think down the line we will be in for it BIG TIME- a depression- we are still in recession as it is. UGH!


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## bnoble (Aug 24, 2015)

No panic here.  Continuing with monthly investments and periodic rebalancing.


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## Passepartout (Aug 24, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> we are still in recession as it is. UGH!



Really? Markets (even today) nearly triple 2007-8 lows? Gas lower than in 2 decades. What recession?

The cure: Stop watching Fox.


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## PigsDad (Aug 24, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> ... *we are still in recession *as it is. UGH!


No, we are not.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

Kurt


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## taterhed (Aug 24, 2015)

Winston Churchill said it best...


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## Beaglemom3 (Aug 24, 2015)

I have been in the market since 1983 and have ridden out every correction, recession and the near-depression of recent memory.


I am glad I did as I did _very, very well  _(because of riding out the storms), but as I am 63 now, I don't have the luxury of time to make up "losses" as I did once.  I say "losses" as I have lost some profit this month, but when I look back to see how my stocks have rebounded since 2007, it puts things back into a proper perspective.

My primary residence is paid for (i.e., a roof over my head), I have a few bucks in the bank, two great professions to fall back on (if needed), the love of my life (with 3 secure/great income streams), decent health, food in the refrigerator and some rental income.


I am a blessed person.

-


-


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## ace2000 (Aug 24, 2015)

Passepartout said:


> What recession?
> 
> The cure: Stop watching Fox.



Ahem...  or another cure is to stop reading these panic-driven doom and gloom threads started here on TUG...


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## Sugarcubesea (Aug 24, 2015)

PigsDad said:


> Two words:  buying opportunity.
> 
> There are some stocks and sectors that have been beat up lately and I personally will be looking at some entry points.  Energy stocks are of particular interest to me right now -- they have lost a lot of value, and the dividend rates at current prices are very tempting.  Oil will not stay this low for a long time, IMO.
> 
> ...



I’m kind of in the same boat as you, I will not need to tap into these funds for 15 years as I have a bit of time till I can retire.


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## am1 (Aug 24, 2015)

There are other investment options then stocks, cds, bonds.  Maybe not as simple but may be safer then the options above.  Or maybe international stocks are better for you.  A lot of currencies are on sale at the moment compared to the high us dollar.





mpumilia said:


> I have a lot of stock and bond mutual funds and ETF's- mostly in IRA's, my 401k and a brokerage account. I am 59 and hubby is 61. We both still work.
> 
> I think it is awful how people our age have to worry about this crap. Makes me sick to my stomach. Years ago (I know- that was then- this is now) people had pensions and CD's/savings accounts were earning big interest. Those are now non-existent for the majority of people.
> 
> ...


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## bogey21 (Aug 24, 2015)

Since I funded them, I manage my kids IRAs.  About 6 months ago I pulled them 100% out of stocks and parked their money in Short Duration Bond Funds.  I intend to swap them back into stocks when the funds I pulled them out of are selling at 10% to 15% less than I sold them for.

George

PS My only assets are a couple of race horses and about $20k in gold and silver coins.


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## Sugarcubesea (Aug 24, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> The FED said today they are going to hold off on raising the interest rates yet again. FOX News just preempted all their regular programming to report on this.  This might not be the BIG crash, but I still think down the line we will be in for it BIG TIME- a depression- we are still in recession as it is. UGH!



I live in the Car Capitol state and back in 2008 when everyone else was experiencing a recession we were in a full blown depression in our state.  We live in a nice sub with 78 homes and by 2010 we had 56 of those 78 homes in different stages of foreclosure. All of my neighbors either work for Ford, GM, Fiat/Chrysler or one of the Big Tier 1 automotive suppliers, when both members of the household lost their jobs and our unemployment rate was higher than any other state, no one could find jobs and they let there houses go.

Both of my neighbors on either side of me had to declare bankruptcy, as their emergency savings depleted after two years of unemployment. One of my neighbors, lived in their house for over 2 years before the bank took it back and then they moved to Texas. My husband and 30 of his employees lost their job all on the same day when Ford decided to outsource their entire department to India. Thankfully I was able to hang onto my job and we were able to save our house from the fate of our neighbors.  It took my hubby 2 years to find a full time direct hire opportunity.  We had a 2 year emergency savings and blew thru that in the 2 years hubby was unemployed.

During this time, I learned how to be even more resourceful and due diligent with my money then I had before and I’m still saving today for the next big one… I truly hope I never have to go thru another horrible depression like myself and my state went thru in 2008 to 2012.


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## Sugarcubesea (Aug 24, 2015)

Passepartout said:


> Really? Markets (even today) nearly triple 2007-8 lows? Gas lower than in 2 decades. What recession?
> 
> The cure: Stop watching Fox.



It depends what state you live in….


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## geekette (Aug 24, 2015)

Holding firm and waiting for bargains as this is likely just the beginning.  I don't sell, I only ever add.  Like Kurt, I'm not retired yet, but if I were already retired, still wouldn't be selling at lows, would instead still be looking forward to Sept, when many many companies pay me dividends, and will do so regardless of sh price.  I needed this downturn to scoop up more, cheap, and put my retirement "for sure" within 10 years vs "maybe" 10, maybe 15...

Rock on with the fire sale, how low can we go....

"sell everything" is advice no one should heed.


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## WinniWoman (Aug 24, 2015)

Passepartout said:


> Really? Markets (even today) nearly triple 2007-8 lows? Gas lower than in 2 decades. What recession?
> 
> The cure: Stop watching Fox.


]


I am going by first hand experience. Sure- the market was up.'But- salaries- including mine- have been stagnant. No raises in years. (and I'm in healthcare-one of the better sectors). Real estate in our area- down. Young people can't afford to buy homes because of college debt- college costs absurd! Food prices- crazy.
Rent prices outrageous. Limited number of jobs. No interest on savings accounts.

I don't know- I don't see a great economy. President Obama said himself when he was running- that low gas/oil prices meant the economy wasn't doing well. Well... we know how gas and oil prices are doing right now...

PS- I am not watching FOX NEWS. I am at work and heard a radio person state that.


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## taterhed (Aug 24, 2015)

Woooo Wait!
 The market is almost even and climbing!!!

 Let's all run out and buy expensive champagne on our credit cards!!!


 Uh oh, wait....it might be dropping again.  Take it back, take it back!


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## WinniWoman (Aug 24, 2015)

am1 said:


> There are other investment options then stocks, cds, bonds.  Maybe not as simple but may be safer then the options above.  Or maybe international stocks are better for you.  A lot of currencies are on sale at the moment compared to the high us dollar.



I have international currency and international stock and bond funds as well. I am pretty well diversified although I admit I am not sure what all the percentages are.


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## WinniWoman (Aug 24, 2015)

Sugarcubesea said:


> I live in the Car Capitol state and back in 2008 when everyone else was experiencing a recession we were in a full blown depression in our state.  We live in a nice sub with 78 homes and by 2010 we had 56 of those 78 homes in different stages of foreclosure. All of my neighbors either work for Ford, GM, Fiat/Chrysler or one of the Big Tier 1 automotive suppliers, when both members of the household lost their jobs and our unemployment rate was higher than any other state, no one could find jobs and they let there houses go.
> 
> Both of my neighbors on either side of me had to declare bankruptcy, as their emergency savings depleted after two years of unemployment. One of my neighbors, lived in their house for over 2 years before the bank took it back and then they moved to Texas. My husband and 30 of his employees lost their job all on the same day when Ford decided to outsource their entire department to India. Thankfully I was able to hang onto my job and we were able to save our house from the fate of our neighbors.  It took my hubby 2 years to find a full time direct hire opportunity.  We had a 2 year emergency savings and blew thru that in the 2 years hubby was unemployed.
> 
> During this time, I learned how to be even more resourceful and due diligent with my money then I had before and I’m still saving today for the next big one… I truly hope I never have to go thru another horrible depression like myself and my state went thru in 2008 to 2012.



Wow. You really lived it. Scary stuff. There are quite a few of abandoned/empty homes around our neighborhood.  If you are lucky enough to have a job-you still have no security. We keep putting money into cash as well- trying to build up to 3 years worth of living expenses. House is paid off quite a while now, but our school and property taxes are ridiculously high because we live in good old NY- the welfare state- where a big portion of property taxes goes to Medicaid. And the school taxes- heaven knows what they do with that money! Amazing how other states can have decent schools with barely any taxes on property owners.:annoyed:


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## Beaglemom3 (Aug 24, 2015)

taterhed said:


> Woooo Wait!
> The market is almost even and climbing!!!
> 
> Let's all run out and buy expensive champagne on our credit cards!!!
> ...



  Hell, yes ! 

  I'm putting all my cash into timeshare futures !

  What could go wrong ?

-


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## Ironwood (Aug 24, 2015)

There was an incredible half-day buying opportunity this morning.  The Dow was down 1100 points shortly after the open.  One financial ETF on my watch list opened 27% down and within 20 minutes was only down 5%.  I just watched it, and everything else on my trading screen and missed the opportunity.  I just didn't have the balls to go all in in this sort of turmoil, but that's how traders make their money.  Volatility is their friend.  
Missed opportunity is the story of my trading!


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## raygo123 (Aug 24, 2015)

Timeshare futures! What great idea wish I thought of that

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk


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## Passepartout (Aug 24, 2015)

I know the feeling. Opportunity knocks- I complain about the noise.


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## easyrider (Aug 24, 2015)

Last week on Monday we sold most of our stock. I haven't even consider owning a mutual fund since 2006 or so. The reason we sold were the market indicators were looking bad. The DJT is way off. Trucking and exports are way off. 


http://www.dat.com/resources/trendlines

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/13/us...rts-fall-off-chart-cass-inttra-ocean-freight/

Many stocks were and are nearing the death cross. The dow has accomplished this death cross last week Tuesday and foreign markets have been tanking.

For us it made sense to bail out and pursue other investments. We have been looking for something for a while and decided on a 27 kw solar system that provides a 25%+ roi and with incentives is paid off in 4 years. This also comes with a 30% federal tax credit. 

Also, this year, long term capital gains are capped at 15%. 

Bill


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## pedro47 (Aug 24, 2015)

bnoble said:


> No panic here.  Continuing with monthly investments and periodic rebalancing.



Ditto. I am going to hold and wait on the Chinese market  to recover.


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## vacationhopeful (Aug 24, 2015)

easyrider;1796027...... We have been looking for something for a while and decided on a 27 kw solar system that provides a 25%+ roi and with incentives is paid off in 4 years. This also comes with a 30% federal tax credit. 

Also said:
			
		

> Bill ... did a 10KW system about 10 years ago. 50% state grant, lousy tax credits at the time (15%) .... BUT great SRECs paying $650 per each Kilowatt sent back onto the grid.
> 
> SRECs down to $140 each (make 13 per year) plus FREE electric for my roost.
> 
> No taxes on SRECs ... no taxes on FREE electric ... AM HAPPY CAMPER!


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## normab (Aug 24, 2015)

Holding firm.  Mostly in dividend stocks.  If the market continues to correct I may buy more.

Also have some mutual funds in one 401k and a previously rolled over IRA.  Not sure I will keep them permanently as they seem to swing more when the market is turbulent.  Too many people get scared and take their money out when they need to stay put...


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## SMHarman (Aug 24, 2015)

normab said:


> Holding firm.  Mostly in dividend stocks.  If the market continues to correct I may buy more.
> 
> Also have some mutual funds in one 401k and a previously rolled over IRA.  Not sure I will keep them permanently as they seem to swing more when the market is turbulent.  Too many people get scared and take their money out when they need to stay put...


And then how do you time the re-entry?!

If you sold last Thursday and reinvested this AM you would be doing well but who knew that. 

Sent from my LT26i using Tapatalk


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## geekette (Aug 24, 2015)

SMHarman said:


> And then how do you time the re-entry?!


Best part of not selling:  not having to figure out when to get back in.
Topped only by The True Best Part of not selling:  enjoyed run-up.  

Only bad part about not selling:  it will take a very serious and prolonged downturn to average down in many of my holdings bought in the past 4-5 yrs.  Many are still quite above 100% return.   Not such a bad problem to have, but takes a lot longer to become a buyer.


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## Ironwood (Aug 24, 2015)

geekette said:


> Best part of not selling:  not having to figure out when to get back in.
> Topped only by The True Best Part of not selling:  enjoyed run-up.
> 
> Only bad part about not selling:  it will take a very serious and prolonged downturn to average down in many of my holdings bought in the past 4-5 yrs.  Many are still quite above 100% return.   Not such a bad problem to have, but takes a lot longer to become a buyer.



It's easy to sell, but much more difficult to time re-entry.  There was a brief golden opportunity to make quick money this morning, but markets could well turn south again by the end of the day.   So, it's not for the faint of heart, or those of us that can't afford to loose what they've got.


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## geekette (Aug 24, 2015)

Ironwood said:


> It's easy to sell, but much more difficult to time re-entry.  There was a brief golden opportunity to make quick money this morning, but markets could well turn south again by the end of the day.   So, it's not for the faint of heart, or those of us that can't afford to loose what they've got.



For me, it's easy - I own what I want to own, no reason to sell to buy back later.  I am definitely one that cannot afford to lose anything, it's taken way too long to get what I have!!   I don't need an absolute bottom to buy, I just need good value.  

I save on broker fees and stress by owning quality companies I don't ever have to sell.  Sure, maybe some day one of my companies might go bust, but it doesn't need an entire market correction to blow itself up and would show signs of deterioration in advance of BOOM.  

Really, how many of the companies with suddenly lower priced stock are doomed?


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## MichaelColey (Aug 24, 2015)

When the masses are panic selling, that's when the smart investors are loading up.

This may or may not be the bottom, but I'm in for the long run.


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## easyrider (Aug 24, 2015)

I have my doubts about this event being a good time to buy on the drops. The only reason the markets in the US didn't do a complete tanking today was due to the "plunge protection team" getting involved, imo. 

Todays point movements looked very manipulated to me. While I was watching, I had to wonder how the heck can the points move so freakishly fast up and down near closing.  

Bill


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## cgeidl (Aug 24, 2015)

*Rolling stock loss*

Almost all our investments except real estate are in stocks via ETF"S now. I have a rolling stock loss of 5% on them and if they go down 5% from their high they sell. Almost all have sold. I had this in the 2008 turndown at 10 % and sold. The problem is when to get back in. As soon as I see the Asian markets rise I will reinvest. With China having problems with growth- theirs still is 4 or 5 % and I don't think will be down much longer . might be oversold today.
I like ETF"S as costs are low and unlike mutual funds you can sell in the middle of the day. ETF"S will be getting a larger share of the market as more people understand them and more articles are written.
We have been retired almost 20 years and live comfortably from our real estate rental. retirement pensions and social security and do not need to withdraw from our stocks. When it goes down we are losing our children's inheritance and charity contributions.When it goes up it is quite the opposite. 
We have been very fortunate and built and sold three homes in the San Francisco Bay which had gone up rapidly in value.


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## x3 skier (Aug 24, 2015)

easyrider said:


> I have my doubts about this event being a good time to buy on the drops. The only reason the markets in the US didn't do a complete tanking today was due to the "plunge protection team" getting involved, imo.
> 
> Todays point movements looked very manipulated to me. While I was watching, I had to wonder how the heck can the points move so freakishly fast up and down near closing.
> 
> Bill



Most trading is done by algorithms. Almost Zero to do with the real value of an enterprise and everything to do with making money by trading. I focus on dividend paying stocks so a return is based on making money and distributing it, not ups and downs of stock price. You can't beat the high speed computer based trading. 

Cheers


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## Talent312 (Aug 24, 2015)

Yeah, let's sell it all, like lemmings, and lock in the losses... NOT.
But as others say, over the long haul, this too shall pass.

I did see all our contributions + gains for 2015 wiped out... too bad, so sad.
But I was already 55% in bonds + bond funds, which has softened the blow.
At least w-individual bonds, you will get your $$ back if you hold to maturity.

.


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## easyrider (Aug 24, 2015)

x3 skier said:


> Most trading is done by algorithms. Almost Zero to do with the real value of an enterprise and everything to do with making money by trading. I focus on dividend paying stocks so a return is based on making money and distributing it, not ups and downs of stock price. You can't beat the high speed computer based trading.
> 
> Cheers



These freakish up and down point movement were likely caused by the 1200 times trading was halted today.  

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/24/inv...elloff-circuit-breakers-1200-times/index.html

Bill


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## MuranoJo (Aug 24, 2015)

I didn't even look to see what's happened to our investments today.
Luckily, our broker advised us some time ago to keep ~5 years' cash in my IRA (to supplement things like pension and SS).   According to him, based on long-term history, the 5 years would likely tide you over any major crashes.

At times, I've thought that's too conservative, but it definitely does give you some peace in times like today.


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## Icc5 (Aug 25, 2015)

*Interesting Ride*

Feel lucky because I planned well years ago in advance.  Yes, lost a ton the last few days (on paper) but even those were just off my gains.  Sitting where things are unless I see something cheap to buy.
House is paid for, decent pension, decent savings, quality stock holdings.
I sit back and tell my wife how many thousand we gained or lost on paper more of a game in my mind then real.  Learned almost 40 years ago to not worry and just let things ride as long as you feel you own/invest in the best companies.
After 2008 we went down almost 300,000 and it all came back plus more.  It might be a bumpy ride but we still get to where we are headed.


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## am1 (Aug 25, 2015)

Why do people feel the gains or losses are just on paper until you sell.  By selling you lock in a loss or a gain but they are still very much real even if you do not sell.  It does make the losses easier to take but they are still losses even if it was from your earlier gains.  

I do feel this is a good way to think for non liquid assets but for stocks it is a way for the heavy traders to take billions from us without us getting upset.


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## geekette (Aug 25, 2015)

am1 said:


> Why do people feel the gains or losses are just on paper until you sell.  By selling you lock in a loss or a gain but they are still very much real even if you do not sell.  It does make the losses easier to take but they are still losses even if it was from your earlier gains.
> 
> I do feel this is a good way to think for non liquid assets but for stocks it is a way for the heavy traders to take billions from us without us getting upset.



Because it is just paper, point in time.  Pick any 2 goal posts of time to determine whether you have a gain or loss.  How meaningful is that??  Are you down from March or from buying 5 years ago or from a week ago?

Consider buying 100 shs of Stock X at any price.  Price goes up, you have 100 shs, price goes down, you have 100 shs.  Where is the loss??

Only by selling those 100 shs do you make anything "real".  Everything else is just normal market gyrations usually having nothing to do with the quality of the company you own, and not stealing shs from you.  Adding, maybe, via dividend reinvestment.

I have super long haul mindset, these things are very easy for me to tune out with decades of experience.  Being a dividend investor, market bottoms are welcomed because for me, more shares = better, no matter the price.


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## am1 (Aug 25, 2015)

I understand all that you are saying.  But a $50 000 loss on "paper" or for "real" is still $50 000.

I do believe it is to the heavy traders advantage for us to brush off paper losses. 

I am against government control but would be for a way for stocks to be valued based on the company being traded and not on how one can make money buying and selling shares.  Not sure if it is possible and a large portion would be  against it.  Possibly very high capital gains on short term trades or not allowing capital losses on short term trades.  



geekette said:


> Because it is just paper, point in time.  Pick any 2 goal posts of time to determine whether you have a gain or loss.  How meaningful is that??  Are you down from March or from buying 5 years ago or from a week ago?
> 
> Consider buying 100 shs of Stock X at any price.  Price goes up, you have 100 shs, price goes down, you have 100 shs.  Where is the loss??
> 
> ...


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## WinniWoman (Aug 25, 2015)

I think the problem arises when you HAVE to sell- like if you are using the money for your retirement income. Can't live just on Social Security. Think of the people who only have one social security check and live in a state like NY or California!

The other issue is- it is possible for stocks./mutual funds to go to "0". Then what?


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## x3 skier (Aug 25, 2015)

easyrider said:


> These freakish up and down point movement were likely caused by the 1200 times trading was halted today.
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/24/inv...elloff-circuit-breakers-1200-times/index.html
> 
> Bill



Cause or effect? The halts are to prevent the type of gyrations caused by rapid trading.

As I suggested, the advent of rapid trading via high speed computers makes things like this happen and leads to lots of money for the high speed trading firms to the detriment of others. 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/historic-profits-for-high-frequency-trading-firm-today-1440446251

Sorry but to read the whole article you have to have a subscription but the teaser gives the gist of the story. 

Cheers


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## cgeidl (Aug 25, 2015)

*Bought back last weeks shares this morning*

When Europe rose and with the FED announcement I bought back the ETF's sold last week. Gained between 3 to 6 % on the number of shares bought back. No tax effect as in IRA's .No matter if the market goes up or down from here we are that percentage ahead.
Doesn't always work as sometimes stocks are sold at your stop loss and immediately come back and you miss.
Also big tax effects if not in tax sheltered accounts.
If the market goes down again past the rolling stock loss point I will sell again.
The year the market really tumbled the losses were only 10 % or so versus 40 to 50% if just staying in the market.
I have kept one mutual fund since 1983 with an initial $2000 investment. It went up to $35,000 back to $15000 then up to $53,000 and now back to$48,000. The buy and hold plan which many have and is good for long horizons historically.
No one knows. By the end of the day the FED may say Irrational exuberance and another crash could come.


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## ace2000 (Aug 25, 2015)

LOL - I might be in the minority here, but I think we all would appreciate it much more, if the financial geniuses on this thread would post their financial tips and wisdom beforehand rather than after the fact.


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## Beaglemom3 (Aug 25, 2015)

ace2000 said:


> LOL - I might be in the minority here, but I think we all would appreciate it much more, if the financial geniuses on this thread would post their financial tips and wisdom beforehand rather than after the fact.



Well, allrighty then,

Buy low.

Sell high.


-


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## bogey21 (Aug 25, 2015)

ace2000 said:


> LOL - I might be in the minority here, but I think we all would appreciate it much more, if the financial geniuses on this thread would post their financial tips and wisdom beforehand rather than after the fact.


  OK here it is.  The two small portfolios I manage are 100% in Low Duration Bond Funds.  They will only go back into stocks when I can buy 15% lower than where I sold.  I am accumulating gold and silver coins on a dollar averaging basis.  I own 2 race horses and am profitable with them this year even though my 2 yo has not made it to the races yet.

George


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## SMHarman (Aug 25, 2015)

am1 said:


> I understand all that you are saying.  But a $50 000 loss on "paper" or for "real" is still $50 000.
> 
> I do believe it is to the heavy traders advantage for us to brush off paper losses.
> 
> I am against government control but would be for a way for stocks to be valued based on the company being traded and not on how one can make money buying and selling shares.  Not sure if it is possible and a large portion would be  against it.  Possibly very high capital gains on short term trades or not allowing capital losses on short term trades.


But it depends what that loss was and on your timing of the need for the cash tied up in the investment. 

If you were sitting on a paper loss in Spring 2009 and held that loss is now gone and in greater gain territory. 

I put a 5k lump sum in my 401k on August 1. That's now $4500 but I don't need it for 20 years so it is a paper loss. 

Remember you can take a margin loan instead of liquidate on a security portfolio if you had a short term cash need today. You continue to own the security so it can recover in the future. Another reason it can be considered a paper loss. 


mpumilia said:


> I think the problem arises when you HAVE to sell- like if you are using the money for your retirement income. Can't live just on Social Security. Think of the people who only have one social security check and live in a state like NY or California!
> 
> The other issue is- it is possible for stocks./mutual funds to go to "0". Then what?


And if your portfolio is properly balanced then this should be less of a concern. Further as highlighted above a margin loan may be a short term solution. 

Is it possible for stocks or mutual fund to go to zero. No not really. Every company represented in the fund would need to declare bankrupt and the costs of those bankruptcy be greater than the assets. Even Bear Stearns shareholders got $10 a share. Your SandP500 ETF would need all the 500 companies their to fail. 

Ultimately the fundamentals will kick in that a company has assets and cashflow and that generates a value just like a govie bond. 

Sent from my LT26i using Tapatalk


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## SMHarman (Aug 25, 2015)

ace2000 said:


> LOL - I might be in the minority here, but I think we all would appreciate it much more, if the financial geniuses on this thread would post their financial tips and wisdom beforehand rather than after the fact.


Depends on your age really.  Those working should have 3-6 mo living expenses in cash. You can count unemployment payments in that cash balance. 

Then invest in diverse funds / etfs with low running costs. 

Trickle money in so market timing is less a concern for you (monthly contributions to 401k)  

Keep track of where your money is and revisit every 6 month's. 

Sent from my LT26i using Tapatalk


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## am1 (Aug 25, 2015)

To me a paper loss is still a loss.  Maybe not the day to day stuff as that is normal but when there are drops.  A long term outlook helps as there is chance of recovery.  How much is a $50 000 paper loss today cost is 30 years.  A lot more then $50 000 especially when those same stocks you own are now on sale for $50 000 less allowing you to purchase more shares.  

I purchased 610 shares of CPA at 84.72 on July 14.  Prior to that I had a buy in for goog at $516 but the stock only came down to $517 before going to the moon.  Today cpa hit a 52 week low of $50.30.  A loss of $34.42 a share or $21000 of my $50000 investment.  The $50 000 I will have to pay taxes on as well.  If I bought cpa today I could get almost 1000 shares.  390 shares difference is a real loss for ever.  In 30 years that is a huge loss even if it is only on "paper".

Most people cannot avoid losses in a changing market so it is easier to not worry about the losses but they still exist.


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## easyrider (Aug 25, 2015)

I agree. If you lose it on paper it might mean you didn't have the wherewithal to keep track of it. Selling has its own strategies because of taxes and potential losses.  

This recent point drop just seems like its loaded to me. The reason I say this is because of the global imploding markets and currencies, imploding commodity prices and hidden inflation. There are many other issues that affect our economy. Stock market being computerized and manipulated may be a good thing but it does seem to make movement of points too fast and uncontrollable at times. 

Like the half full boxes of cereal at the stores ,stocks have lost ground due to inflation.  Cumulative inflation in the last 15 years is 38%. Since 2007 this inflation is about 15%. 

Anyway, hopefully for those still in, the market will be back in shape when you need your funds. Good Luck !!

Bill


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## geekette (Aug 25, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> I think the problem arises when you HAVE to sell- like if you are using the money for your retirement income. Can't live just on Social Security. Think of the people who only have one social security check and live in a state like NY or California!
> 
> The other issue is- it is possible for stocks./mutual funds to go to "0". Then what?



hasn't happened to me in over 25 years, I'll let you know.  Meanwhile, why put yourself in a position where you have to sell anything?  I'm single, no pension.  One ss check and my life savings is all there is.  Persons needing to sell assets to live should not have them in the stock market.  Greed makes people do foolish things, tho, which is what hurt so many in 2008, thinking Up was the only direction, playing fast and loose, not securing the money they needed to live on ...  and now they work instead of retire, having sold at the bottom from fear of losing all of it.

A company going to 0 is possible, but if one actually pays attention to what they own, they should see this coming.  How many companies went to 0 this year?  I actually don't know, I can't think of any, somebody can think of some?

Inability to increase sales, decreasing earnings, dividend cuts/suspensions, ...  warning signs, usually quarter after quarter of no improvement ...  it's not very often that a going concern vaporizes overnight.  Diversification spreads your risk.  If you own 30 companies and one goes blukey, you still have 29 companies.  

Buying quality companies shields you from much of this risk as well.  If you buy a company that is nearly insolvent, well, why do that when you can get AAA+ rated company in same industry??


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## geekette (Aug 25, 2015)

ace2000 said:


> LOL - I might be in the minority here, but I think we all would appreciate it much more, if the financial geniuses on this thread would post their financial tips and wisdom beforehand rather than after the fact.



not a genius, but have never lost money investing:  buy quality dividend payers when they are at good value, tune out the noise, collect your quarterly payments.  Simple as that.


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## geekette (Aug 25, 2015)

am1 said:


> I understand all that you are saying.  But a $50 000 loss on "paper" or for "real" is still $50 000.
> 
> I do believe it is to the heavy traders advantage for us to brush off paper losses.
> 
> I am against government control but would be for a way for stocks to be valued based on the company being traded and not on how one can make money buying and selling shares.  Not sure if it is possible and a large portion would be  against it.  Possibly very high capital gains on short term trades or not allowing capital losses on short term trades.



It's all about forward earnings, which is unknowable.  There is not a way to give a present value to the unknowable, and so stock market by necessity runs by speculation.

The "loss" thing - I also don't spend time thinking about what my house or car is worth from day to day.  It's pointless unless I want to sell.   I can't get myself in a tizzy thinking "I have 100k loss on my home today!" and then months later have a celebration:  "I am up 100k on my home today!"   It's pointless.  What I *Could Sell* something for means nothing unless I Actually Sell It and Realize the gain or loss.

We're all different, I just don't bother troubling myself with stuff like this, just like I don't sell all my stocks to re-buy same companies later.  Rather pointless for me, might make sense for  you.


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## geekette (Aug 25, 2015)

am1 said:


> To me a paper loss is still a loss.  Maybe not the day to day stuff as that is normal but when there are drops.  A long term outlook helps as there is chance of recovery.  How much is a $50 000 paper loss today cost is 30 years.  A lot more then $50 000 especially when those same stocks you own are now on sale for $50 000 less allowing you to purchase more shares.
> 
> I purchased 610 shares of CPA at 84.72 on July 14.  Prior to that I had a buy in for goog at $516 but the stock only came down to $517 before going to the moon.  Today cpa hit a 52 week low of $50.30.  A loss of $34.42 a share or $21000 of my $50000 investment.  The $50 000 I will have to pay taxes on as well.  If I bought cpa today I could get almost 1000 shares.  390 shares difference is a real loss for ever.  In 30 years that is a huge loss even if it is only on "paper".
> 
> Most people cannot avoid losses in a changing market so it is easier to not worry about the losses but they still exist.



Sure, but since market bounces around every day the exchanges are open, I am winning and losing all day , every day.  I don't have time to care about that!


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## am1 (Aug 25, 2015)

geekette said:


> The "loss" thing - I also don't spend time thinking about what my house or car is worth from day to day.  It's pointless unless I want to sell.   I can't get myself in a tizzy thinking "I have 100k loss on my home today!" and then months later have a celebration:  "I am up 100k on my home today!"   It's pointless.  What I *Could Sell* something for means nothing unless I Actually Sell It and Realize the gain or loss.



A house or car are different as there is more attachment and the assets are non-liquid.


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## geekette (Aug 25, 2015)

am1 said:


> A house or car are different as there is more attachment and the assets are non-liquid.



Yes, different in many ways, I just don't have any other "major assets" I can compare life savings to??  

Car is liquid, I can sell it at Carmax tonight after work for whatever they'll give me for it.


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## am1 (Aug 25, 2015)

geekette said:


> Yes, different in many ways, I just don't have any other "major assets" I can compare life savings to??
> 
> Car is liquid, I can sell it at Carmax tonight after work for whatever they'll give me for it.



If your car is an investment and the fees are low and you can rebuy it whenever you want I would agree they are similar.


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## irish (Aug 25, 2015)

okay, here's MY problem, i read this thread all the way thru and have NO idea what anyone said....


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## taterhed (Aug 25, 2015)

ace2000 said:


> LOL - I might be in the minority here, but I think we all would appreciate it much more, if the financial geniuses on this thread would post their financial tips and wisdom beforehand rather than after the fact.





Beaglemom3 said:


> Well, allrighty then,
> 
> Buy low.
> 
> ...





bogey21 said:


> OK here it is. The two small portfolios I manage are 100% in Low Duration Bond Funds. They will only go back into stocks when I can buy 15% lower than where I sold. I am accumulating gold and silver coins on a dollar averaging basis. I own 2 race horses and am profitable with them this year even though my 2 yo has not made it to the races yet.
> 
> George




 Sure.  Here's my long-term investment financial advice--before (and after) the fact (hint, you've heard it before):

 Build a diversified, risk-appropriate (for age) portfolio and:

 step 1 turn off the TV
 step 2 turn off the radio
 step 3 move away from the ipad/computer/cellphone

 step 4  go take a walk--so you'll live long enough to enjoy your investments

 come back in 10 years and see where it's at.

 jm2c


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## SmithOp (Aug 25, 2015)

ace2000 said:


> LOL - I might be in the minority here, but I think we all would appreciate it much more, if the financial geniuses on this thread would post their financial tips and wisdom beforehand rather than after the fact.




All my 401k is in Target Date funds, set for 2025 when I'll be 70 and have to start RMDs.  Set it and forget it, I let the real geniuses figure it out for me.


Sent from my iPad using the strange new version of Tapatalk


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## chriskre (Aug 25, 2015)

I try not to panic and watch too much TV.
I still have 15 years until full retirement age so hopefully what I lose this month will be back up by then and hopefully more.  

I'm a bit of a don't put all your eggs in one basket gal though, I have a self directed IRA that owns real estate cause at least if the stock market went to hell in a hand basket at least I'd have my rentals.  
You always need someplace to live.


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## WinniWoman (Aug 25, 2015)

geekette said:


> hasn't happened to me in over 25 years, I'll let you know.  Meanwhile, why put yourself in a position where you have to sell anything?  I'm single, no pension.  One ss check and my life savings is all there is.  Persons needing to sell assets to live should not have them in the stock market.  Greed makes people do foolish things, tho, which is what hurt so many in 2008, thinking Up was the only direction, playing fast and loose, not securing the money they needed to live on ...  and now they work instead of retire, having sold at the bottom from fear of losing all of it.
> 
> A company going to 0 is possible, but if one actually pays attention to what they own, they should see this coming.  How many companies went to 0 this year?  I actually don't know, I can't think of any, somebody can think of some?
> 
> ...




What happens if you have medical bills? Home repairs? Car repairs? You have to take the money from somewhere. If you are retired (aka not working) you can't pay for that with just a SS check. Plus- you have to take minimal distributions at age 70 1/2 from your retirement accounts. If the market tanks just at that time- well...not a good thing. You need to keep money in stocks and bonds and mutual funds because there is no other way to beat inflation or have your money last until you die. Savings accounts are paying out 0%. You must live in a very cheap area and have very little expenses. That's great for you, but I don't see that for most people. Lots of people lost everything during the depression.


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## easyrider (Aug 25, 2015)

Does anyone think that it is strange that the dow settled to 15,666 ? I know that the odds of this number coming up are the same as any other number coming up, but what the hey. 

Bill


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## CO skier (Aug 25, 2015)

easyrider said:


> Does anyone think that it is strange that the dow settled to 15,666 ? I know that the odds of this number coming up are the same as any other number coming up, but what the hey.
> 
> Bill



On 8/8/1988 the odometer on my 1979 CJ-7 Jeep passed through 88888.8.  What are the chances of something like that happening?

Some numerological coincidences are just amazing.

Didn't the S&P 500 index bottom at 666 in March 2009?


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## easyrider (Aug 25, 2015)

The 666 bottom of 09. I guess we will see if the 15,*666* holds a bottom tomorrow.



> On 8/8/1988 the odometer on my 1979 CJ-7 Jeep passed through 88888.8. What are the chances of something like that happening?



It happens all the time I guess.  Especially back in the day with a buzz on. 

Bill


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## dioxide45 (Aug 25, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> What happens if you have medical bills? Home repairs? Car repairs? You have to take the money from somewhere. If you are retired (aka not working) you can't pay for that with just a SS check. Plus- you have to take minimal distributions at age 70 1/2 from your retirement accounts. If the market tanks just at that time- well...not a good thing. You need to keep money in stocks and bonds and mutual funds because there is no other way to beat inflation or have your money last until you die. Savings accounts are paying out 0%. You must live in a very cheap area and have very little expenses. That's great for you, but I don't see that for most people. Lots of people lost everything during the depression.



But at age 70 1/2 you shouldn't be 100% in stocks. If you need the money in the next 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks. When you start drawing from retirement, I am not sure that beating inflation is the top concern. If someone is 70 1/5 they are then also eligible for medicare, so medical bills should be mitigated some. 

If you can survive on a SS check and perhaps a pension, by all means keep the funds in stocks, but if you are now having to pull money from retirement funds, it shouldn't have all been in stocks. Also, one should be withdrawing those assets that you aren't going to take hit on (cash, savings, money market)

Those that stayed the course from 2008 and continued to dollar cost average and didn't pull anything out fared extremely well since then. I would suspect that even those taking minimum distributions are still much farther ahead now than if they had taken it all out at the bottom of the market.


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## WinniWoman (Aug 25, 2015)

dioxide45 said:


> But at age 70 1/2 you shouldn't be 100% in stocks. If you need the money in the next 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks. When you start drawing from retirement, I am not sure that beating inflation is the top concern. If someone is 70 1/5 they are then also eligible for medicare, so medical bills should be mitigated some.
> 
> If you can survive on a SS check and perhaps a pension, by all means keep the funds in stocks, but if you are now having to pull money from retirement funds, it shouldn't have all been in stocks. Also, one should be withdrawing those assets that you aren't going to take hit on (cash, savings, money market)
> 
> Those that stayed the course from 2008 and continued to dollar cost average and didn't pull anything out fared extremely well since then. I would suspect that even those taking minimum distributions are still much farther ahead now than if they had taken it all out at the bottom of the market.



Agree- not ALL in stocks-of course not, but most IRA money should be in stocks and bonds (which also go down) (I use mutual funds and ETFs)- and sure- some cash, too-it has to last 20 or 30 years depending on when you retire and your health, etc.! Unless you have so many millions of dollars you don't need it to grow and keep up with prices, etc. But- the thing is how to know when you can exchange some of those stock and bond mutual funds into a money market within the IRA to get ready for the distribution. And- how do you know how much of the money you will need in 5 or 10 years? You don't need all of it in 5 or 10 years hopefully. How much do you need in 15 years? 20 years? That is something I will have to work on. I am less than 10 years away from retirement, but I have felt the need to keep IRA money in mutual funds to make up for the two previous hits we took in the past crashes. And, we continue to contribute to Roth IRA's in mutual funds. Most of our cash is outside our IRA's.

As for Medicare- it doesn't cover everything. You have to pay for the supplemental insurance and then you still have big copays, prescription bills possibly, etc. And- who knows what other things you have to pay for out of pocket, depending on how sick you are.


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## geekette (Aug 25, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> What happens if you have medical bills? Home repairs? Car repairs? You have to take the money from somewhere. If you are retired (aka not working) you can't pay for that with just a SS check. Plus- you have to take minimal distributions at age 70 1/2 from your retirement accounts. If the market tanks just at that time- well...not a good thing. You need to keep money in stocks and bonds and mutual funds because there is no other way to beat inflation or have your money last until you die. Savings accounts are paying out 0%. You must live in a very cheap area and have very little expenses. That's great for you, but I don't see that for most people. Lots of people lost everything during the depression.



Dividends, my friend.  I will be living like a widow or orphan on quarterly payments from solid companies bought long ago and recently and hopefully again soon.  I hold the shares, they pay me.  While they pay me, I hold the shares vs selling.  Hold long enough to accumulate a lot of shares at various prices, when/if you sell, you can control your gain/loss.

You are wise to know that inflation is the beast at your door, and have determined how to be ahead of it.  ETFs and mutual funds are fine, but it's rather "a risk pool" while direct stock ownership puts you in control, not the masses that buy and sell at bad times and management that does what fund management must.  I'm tethered to them for current 401k, but no chain elsewhere, I can invest how I like.

I realize that not everyone wants to own companies outright, for completely valid reasons, in which case, low fee funds are perfectly fine.   There is still the sell problem, however, plus you cannot count on nor predict your next dividend size nor anticipate gains in December.  

For the unexpected whatever (I have an old house and a nasty run of repairs the past 2 years), there should already be cash put back as "emergency".   Aggressive as I am, even I would not enter retirement without at least 2 years of living expenses cash sitting around in good ole bank account.  I plan to accumulate at least one year of dividends within every investment account as extra cushion or reinvest if not needed.  It's pretty easy to switch divs to cash vs reinvest but I so far reinvest all back into payer.  Dividend compounding is a very powerful thing.  

RMDs, you can take those at any time thru the year, you don't have to cash in on market bottom day.  I probably will have $ sent from cash portion of IRA to my checking account monthly.  The cash will replenish itself from div payments.  No selling stocks.

Or, I could pick a really low market day in which to transfer an entire stock position from tax shelter to taxable investment account.  Note, I do not have to liquidate.  I believe I get stepped-up basis as well, not sure on that/rules may change.  On a down day, the value is lower, the taxes are lower.  I may have to take value out of IRA, but I don't have to spend the money, I can keep it invested until I do need it.  Sure, divs or sale now a taxable event, but no forced hand.

~~
I do in fact live in middle America, we are not high cost of living.  This also means that my salary is appropriate to where I live, but would be peanuts elsewhere, or King's Ransom in smaller town.  One of the most severe problems with our tax code is what I refer to as Regional Punishment.  40k in Midwest does not go as far on either coast.   There is not near enough cost of living indexing to fed numbers.

It is probably another 10 years to retirement so I have a paycheck and stashing away funds as I can, I am not living on dividends yet, but I am on track for them to more than replace my salary.


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## am1 (Aug 25, 2015)

Dividend stocks would help with taking payments at 70 and a half.  My guess is retirement accounts should me the most aggressive or with dividend stocks to avoid the tax hit every month or quarter if they were outside retirement accounts.  

My hope is to be so far off what I actually need that I do not need to worry.  Also have my two sons involved where they can manage my investments and possibly accept some of the risk so I do not need to stay very much cash on hand.   

I have not owned or looked at mutual funds for over 10 years.  Have the fees increased as less people are buying or decreased as costs have gone down?  Are they less liquid then before and have returns decreased along with popularity?


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## geekette (Aug 25, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> Agree- not ALL in stocks-of course not, but most IRA money should be in stocks and bonds (which also go down) (I use mutual funds and ETFs)- and sure- some cash, too-it has to last 20 or 30 years depending on when you retire and your health, etc.! Unless you have so many millions of dollars you don't need it to grow and keep up with prices, etc. But- the thing is how to know when you can exchange some of those stock and bond mutual funds into a money market within the IRA to get ready for the distribution. And- how do you know how much of the money you will need in 5 or 10 years? You don't need all of it in 5 or 10 years hopefully. How much do you need in 15 years? 20 years? That is something I will have to work on. I am less than 10 years away from retirement, but I have felt the need to keep IRA money in mutual funds to make up for the two previous hits we took in the past crashes. And, we continue to contribute to Roth IRA's in mutual funds. Most of our cash is outside our IRA's.
> 
> As for Medicare- it doesn't cover everything. You have to pay for the supplemental insurance and then you still have big copays, prescription bills possibly, etc. And- who knows what other things you have to pay for out of pocket, depending on how sick you are.



If you are eligible for HSA (Health Savings Account), start one immediately.  You must have a high deductible med plan to be eligible (check IRS pubs for details).   It's kind of like IRA for healthcare.  Very low ceiling on contributions (like 3200/yr?), use it immediately like credit card to pay med bills (copay, scrips, hospital bill, whatever....)  OR , I am paying for current bills out of pocket and letting the HSA ride.  I also am very fortunate to have an employer putting in half the annual contrib limit, the other half comes from me from each paycheck, pre-tax, like 401k.  

If I run into financial trouble, I can reimburse myself for med bills I paid myself, putting money instantly into my hands.  Immediately as in writing myself a check and depositing it.  After a certain age (it wasn't the standard 59.5...?) you can use the money for any purpose.  Until then, it has to be health-related.    this is not the same as FSA, which requires same-year depletion.  This is portable like 401k (mine have both been thru employer but one can simply open one like an IRA,  HSA Bank for example).

~~

when to go to cash is not ever going to have a pat answer, but when retirement is closer, it will be significantly easier to estimate expenses.  I don't spend any time thinking about it right now as the numbers are unknowable.   I'm not even sure what state I'll live in!

Were I in funds, I would dollar cost average out, maybe quarterly.  Possibly you could automate 1% sale every 3 months and just let it spend down.  You could use that money to ladder cds, which maybe will have some value in another decade.  

If I end up with millions, yep, it'll be a lot easier!


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## geekette (Aug 25, 2015)

am1 said:


> Dividend stocks would help with taking payments at 70 and a half.  My guess is retirement accounts should me the most aggressive or with dividend stocks to avoid the tax hit every month or quarter if they were outside retirement accounts.
> 
> My hope is to be so far off what I actually need that I do not need to worry.  Also have my two sons involved where they can manage my investments and possibly accept some of the risk so I do not need to stay very much cash on hand.
> 
> I have not owned or looked at mutual funds for over 10 years.  Have the fees increased as less people are buying or decreased as costs have gone down?  Are they less liquid then before and have returns decreased along with popularity?



ETFs are everywhere now, they are lower expense than MFs but incur trading fees (the Exchange Traded part).  Like MFs, there is an etf for every taste, sector, inclination, and like funds, one must actually read the prospectus to know what they're doing.  

Index ETFs are generally the best an investor can do to incur low fees and reasonably good performance since there isn't much human intervention.  I owned SDY for a few years in my rollover 401k until I could diversify completely and it ran middle of the pack among bluechips.  I don't otherwise follow them, can't even tell you what wacko funds are in my 401k, I picked an index fund that doesn't charge an "asset fee" (first 401k I've had with that nasty monthly extraction!)


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## SMHarman (Aug 25, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> Agree- not ALL in stocks-of course not, but most IRA money should be in stocks and bonds (which also go down) (I use mutual funds and ETFs)- and sure- some cash, too-it has to last 20 or 30 years depending on when you retire and your health, etc.! Unless you have so many millions of dollars you don't need it to grow and keep up with prices, etc. But- the thing is how to know when you can exchange some of those stock and bond mutual funds into a money market within the IRA to get ready for the distribution. And- how do you know how much of the money you will need in 5 or 10 years? You don't need all of it in 5 or 10 years hopefully. How much do you need in 15 years? 20 years? That is something I will have to work on. I am less than 10 years away from retirement, but I have felt the need to keep IRA money in mutual funds to make up for the two previous hits we took in the past crashes. And, we continue to contribute to Roth IRA's in mutual funds. Most of our cash is outside our IRA's.
> 
> As for Medicare- it doesn't cover everything. You have to pay for the supplemental insurance and then you still have big copays, prescription bills possibly, etc. And- who knows what other things you have to pay for out of pocket, depending on how sick you are.


That's the bit you keep in cash. 

Sent from my LT26i using Tapatalk


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## am1 (Aug 25, 2015)

geekette said:


> ETFs are everywhere now, they are lower expense than MFs but incur trading fees (the Exchange Traded part).  Like MFs, there is an etf for every taste, sector, inclination, and like funds, one must actually read the prospectus to know what they're doing.
> 
> Index ETFs are generally the best an investor can do to incur low fees and reasonably good performance since there isn't much human intervention.  I owned SDY for a few years in my rollover 401k until I could diversify completely and it ran middle of the pack among bluechips.  I don't otherwise follow them, can't even tell you what wacko funds are in my 401k, I picked an index fund that doesn't charge an "asset fee" (first 401k I've had with that nasty monthly extraction!)



Yes I do not even know why MFs still exist and that in itself would worry me if I owned one but I guess some people are still happy with them and that is why they are offered.  Possible people have a lot of gains they do not want to pay taxes on just yet.


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## capjak (Aug 25, 2015)

am1 said:


> Yes I do not even know why MFs still exist and that in itself would worry me if I owned one but I guess some people are still happy with them and that is why they are offered.  Possible people have a lot of gains they do not want to pay taxes on just yet.



ETFs are great except when there is a "Flash Crash" like yesterday, rare but it is a reminder that they are so complex that even computers can not set the price correctly sometimes.  Mutual Funds do not have this issue as the price is set at the end of the day.


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## MULTIZ321 (Aug 25, 2015)

Signs, Long Unheeded, Now Point to Risks in U.S. Economy - by Landon Thomas Jr./ Business/ DealBook/ International New York Times/ The New York Times/ nytimes.com

"As investors scramble to make sense of the wild market swings in recent days, a number of financial experts argue that, for more than a year now, signs pointing to an equity crisis were there for all to see.

The data points range from the obvious to the obscure, encompassing stock market and credit bubbles in China, the strength of the dollar relative to emerging market currencies, a commodity rout and a sudden halt to global earnings growth.

While it would have been impossible to predict the precise timing of the last week’s downturn, this array of economic and financial indicators led to an inescapable conclusion, these analysts say: The United States economy would only be able to avoid for so long the deflationary forces that have taken root in China..."





 Awaiting the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Credit Justin Lane/European Pressphoto Agency 


Richard


----------



## WinniWoman (Aug 26, 2015)

*"If you are eligible for HSA (Health Savings Account), start one immediately. You must have a high deductible med plan to be eligible (check IRS pubs for details). It's kind of like IRA for healthcare. Very low ceiling on contributions (like 3200/yr?), use it immediately like credit card to pay med bills (copay, scrips, hospital bill, whatever....) OR , I am paying for current bills out of pocket and letting the HSA ride. I also am very fortunate to have an employer putting in half the annual contrib limit, the other half comes from me from each paycheck, pre-tax, like 401k." 
*
Oh, yes! We have a HSA and put the max in. Have health insurance through hubby and his employer also kicks in a little bonus money (just a few hundred dollars) if you partake in wellness activities, like getting a screening, health coaching, etc. Not too much in there and we do have to use it for medical expenses- including dental- but- hey- every little bit helps! And it's age 65 that you can take the money out for any type of expense without penalty- but you do still have to pay taxes on it if it is not for medical.


----------



## WinniWoman (Aug 26, 2015)

*"Or, I could pick a really low market day in which to transfer an entire stock position from tax shelter to taxable investment account. Note, I do not have to liquidate. I believe I get stepped-up basis as well, not sure on that/rules may change. On a down day, the value is lower, the taxes are lower. I may have to take value out of IRA, but I don't have to spend the money, I can keep it invested until I do need it. Sure, divs or sale now a taxable event, but no forced hand."*
[/B]
Really? I didn't know you didn't have to liquidate. Are you sure? I thought if you had - let's say- a mutual fund in an IRA- and wanted to put it in a taxable account that you had to sell it first. Good idea if this is possible.

*"RMDs, you can take those at any time thru the year, you don't have to cash in on market bottom day. I probably will have $ sent from cash portion of IRA to my checking account monthly. The cash will replenish itself from div payments. No selling stocks.*

*"Were I in funds, I would dollar cost average out, maybe quarterly. Possibly you could automate 1% sale every 3 months and just let it spend down. You could use that money to ladder cds, which maybe will have some value in another decade."*

This is also an excellent idea- dollar cost averaging out. Thanks, Geekette- your posts are very helpful!


----------



## WinniWoman (Aug 26, 2015)

am1 said:


> Dividend stocks would help with taking payments at 70 and a half.  My guess is retirement accounts should me the most aggressive or with dividend stocks to avoid the tax hit every month or quarter if they were outside retirement accounts.
> 
> My hope is to be so far off what I actually need that I do not need to worry.  Also have my two sons involved where they can manage my investments and possibly accept some of the risk so I do not need to stay very much cash on hand.
> 
> I have not owned or looked at mutual funds for over 10 years.  Have the fees increased as less people are buying or decreased as costs have gone down?  Are they less liquid then before and have returns decreased along with popularity?



I only have no-load mutual funds and ETF's, so expenses are low. Returns on some are average to high- others not so much. Depends which ones you have like everything else. They have always been easy to liquidate- although you get the closing price at the end of the day when you sell, as opposed to ETF's which trade like stocks. I work during the day (in a car) and I can't be tracking stocks and buying and selling stocks as needed, so mutual funds are much easier as you let the manager handle all that and get more broad diversification.


----------



## WinniWoman (Aug 26, 2015)

*(first 401k I've had with that nasty monthly extraction!) *

I hate that monthly fee coming out of my 401k! What a rip-off!!! Drives me nuts every time I get my statement! That's one reason why I only put in 5% to get the employer match and put the rest in my Roth IRA.


----------



## pedro47 (Aug 26, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> *(first 401k I've had with that nasty monthly extraction!) *
> 
> I hate that monthly fee coming out of my 401k! What a rip-off!!! Drives me nuts every time I get my statement! That's one reason why I only put in 5% to get the employer match and put the rest in my Roth IRA.



ROTH IRA is the best way to invest in my personal opinion. This is an outstanding move by you.


----------



## Talent312 (Aug 26, 2015)

I only track the value of my portfolio when it's rising - I like good news. 
When it goes down, I prefer to ignore it. :ignore:

Each month, I check my chosen MF's + ETF's against a watch list for each category. I use a self-made formula to generate a ranking for each that involves Zack's + M* ratings, 1-3-5 yr. averages, standard deviations, and expense ratios. Only if one performs poorly against others over time do I think about selling and trading up.
.


----------



## geekette (Aug 26, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> *"Or, I could pick a really low market day in which to transfer an entire stock position from tax shelter to taxable investment account. Note, I do not have to liquidate. I believe I get stepped-up basis as well, not sure on that/rules may change. On a down day, the value is lower, the taxes are lower. I may have to take value out of IRA, but I don't have to spend the money, I can keep it invested until I do need it. Sure, divs or sale now a taxable event, but no forced hand."*
> [/B]
> Really? I didn't know you didn't have to liquidate. Are you sure? I thought if you had - let's say- a mutual fund in an IRA- and wanted to put it in a taxable account that you had to sell it first. Good idea if this is possible.
> 
> ...


Very glad to be helpful!!  Money is important stuff, ditching the rat race is important, too!   I strive to give myself the most options possible since the future has so many unknowns.

On the position transfer, I know it's possible with stocks, I know it's possible with my broker who holds my Roth, my rollover IRA and my taxable portfolios.  For mutual fund/etf, I'm not sure.  There may be rules covering those that don't apply to stocks.  Call your broker and then call a different one to see if same answers!  But in theory, # shs should be all anyone cares about, not where you hold them.  They may not move fractional shs (I had that issue with a transfer agent when wanting to transfer from joint to just me at divorce, and simply sold the fractional part off).


----------



## PigsDad (Aug 26, 2015)

Talent312 said:


> I only track the value of my portfolio when it's rising - I like good news.
> When it goes down, I prefer to ignore it. :ignore:


Ha!  That's *exactly *what I do! :rofl:  

Has worked so far, so why change? 

Kurt


----------



## PigsDad (Aug 26, 2015)

pedro47 said:


> ROTH IRA is the best way to invest in my personal opinion. This is an outstanding move by you.


Because ROTH contributions are not tax deductible, it really depends on what you think your personal tax rate is now vs. what you think it will be when you retire.  If you think your current tax rate will be higher, then traditional 401k contributions are the way to go.  However, most people will have a lower tax rate in retirement so one should really think about their choices.

Personally, right now both my wife and I are pulling in a good salary so our marginal tax rate is pretty high, and I can't imagine it will be this high in retirement given what we estimate we will need draw from our tax deferred accounts in retirement.  Getting that tax deduction now means we can put even more into our retirements accounts and other savings.

*mpumilia*:  I'm surprised you are choosing ROTH over additional deductible 401k contributions, as you are always reminding us about your high taxes in NY.  If you plan to move to a lower-tax area in retirement, you are unnecessarily paying more taxes now vs. retirement, I would think (but I certainly could be wrong -- I don't know your exact situation).  I would at least talk to a tax advisor to see what would be best for you at this time.

With all of that said, I think it is great to have some ROTH retirement funds just to hedge against outrageous tax rates in retirement.  I personally first max out my deductible 401k contributions first, and then contribute to my ROTH IRA (via a yearly conversion from traditional IRA contributions due to limits, but that is another topic).

Kurt


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## x3 skier (Aug 26, 2015)

RMD's are a real annoyance to me since I don't want or need them. I understand why they exist but it doesn't make me any happier. 

One of my retirement accounts (401k) is set up for the monthly amount and the other (IRA) I take periodically when I think the timing is right like earlier this year when I took the entire RMD. The 401k is set up with only two options, one lump sum or monthly while the IRA allows withdrawal of the RMD amount in a total lump sum, any amount anytime or monthly. I could transfer the 401k to the IRA for maximum flexibility but I like the 401k options and fees and if I could, I'd transfer the IRA into the 401k but that's prohibited by the terms of the 401k.

Cheers


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## Beaglemom3 (Aug 26, 2015)

PigsDad said:


> Ha!  That's *exactly *what I do! :rofl:
> 
> Has worked so far, so why change?
> 
> Kurt



Me, too !

I can't handle bad reality.   


-


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## geekette (Aug 26, 2015)

Interesting article about index funds. 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3468296-the-hidden-danger-of-index-funds


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## WinniWoman (Aug 26, 2015)

*"mpumilia: I'm surprised you are choosing ROTH over additional deductible 401k contributions, as you are always reminding us about your high taxes in NY. If you plan to move to a lower-tax area in retirement, you are unnecessarily paying more taxes now vs. retirement, I would think (but I certainly could be wrong -- I don't know your exact situation). I would at least talk to a tax advisor to see what would be best for you at this time.

With all of that said, I think it is great to have some ROTH retirement funds just to hedge against outrageous tax rates in retirement. I personally first max out my deductible 401k contributions first, and then contribute to my ROTH IRA (via a yearly conversion from traditional IRA contributions due to limits, but that is another topic).
"*
We do have traditional IRA's as well. But we like the idea of tax-free withdrawals, although we plan to take money from our Traditional IRA's and 401k's first. In the event we end up leaving earth before we tap the Roth's our son won't have to pay taxes on the money in there that he inherits. Plus, we are not sure if we will be able to move- major social/local issues going on in our community-  home values down/market at a halt. We would love to move to New Hampshire where our son currently lives, but who knows what will happen? The worse part in NYS is the property and school taxes, but New Hampshire also has high property taxes (a bit lower than NY). And real estate is expensive there- we would probably rent if anything. No state income (except on interest/dividends over $5000)or sales tax there, no tax on SS (NY also does not tax SS) which is good.But again- a lot to consider and not sure how anything will play out. I definitely don't want to move far away from the only child we have, even if it means not living in a cheap area.


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## KauaiMark (Aug 26, 2015)

*Dividend investor's buying opportunity...*



Passepartout said:


> ..., is anybody panicking?
> Jim



No panic here but when these big events come around, I look to add to the stuff I'm already into.

...Mark


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## SMHarman (Aug 26, 2015)

PigsDad said:


> Ha!  That's *exactly *what I do! :rofl:
> 
> Has worked so far, so why change?
> 
> Kurt





pedro47 said:


> ROTH IRA is the best way to invest in my personal opinion. This is an outstanding move by you.





PigsDad said:


> Because ROTH contributions are not tax deductible, it really depends on what you think your personal tax rate is now vs. what you think it will be when you retire.  If you think your current tax rate will be higher, then traditional 401k contributions are the way to go.  However, most people will have a lower tax rate in retirement so one should really think about their choices.
> 
> Personally, right now both my wife and I are pulling in a good salary so our marginal tax rate is pretty high, and I can't imagine it will be this high in retirement given what we estimate we will need draw from our tax deferred accounts in retirement.  Getting that tax deduction now means we can put even more into our retirements accounts and other savings.
> 
> ...


What pigs dad said. We had a long debate about this on tug a while back. 

Most seem to obfuscate the current tax on a Roth and only focus on the future tax on a traditional 401k. Personally I feel the dollar saved now and allowed to compound for the future is better than the free dollar in the future. 

Sent from my LT26i using Tapatalk


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## PigsDad (Aug 26, 2015)

KauaiMark said:


> No panic here but when these big events come around, I look to add to the stuff I'm already into.



Fully agree.  Oil / energy stocks' dividends are looking very tempting now.  Stocks in some companies that have 10-20+ year history of increasing dividends are paying over 7% right now.  Very tempting.  If you believe oil will eventually recover w/o major damage to these companies (forcing dividend cuts), this is a good opportunity, IMO.

Kurt


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## geekette (Aug 26, 2015)

mpumilia said:


> *"If you are eligible for HSA (Health Savings Account), start one immediately. You must have a high deductible med plan to be eligible (check IRS pubs for details). It's kind of like IRA for healthcare. Very low ceiling on contributions (like 3200/yr?), use it immediately like credit card to pay med bills (copay, scrips, hospital bill, whatever....) OR , I am paying for current bills out of pocket and letting the HSA ride. I also am very fortunate to have an employer putting in half the annual contrib limit, the other half comes from me from each paycheck, pre-tax, like 401k."
> *
> Oh, yes! We have a HSA and put the max in. Have health insurance through hubby and his employer also kicks in a little bonus money (just a few hundred dollars) if you partake in wellness activities, like getting a screening, health coaching, etc. Not too much in there and we do have to use it for medical expenses- including dental- but- hey- every little bit helps! And it's age 65 that you can take the money out for any type of expense without penalty- but you do still have to pay taxes on it if it is not for medical.


You do still have to pay taxes, this is true, but remember it was pretax  and has tax-deferred growth -- eventually there has to be tax.  Better deal than not having HSA, and any contribution not coming from my pocket is welcome!


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## geekette (Aug 26, 2015)

SMHarman said:


> What pigs dad said. We had a long debate about this on tug a while back.
> 
> Most seem to obfuscate the current tax on a Roth and only focus on the future tax on a traditional 401k. Personally I feel the dollar saved now and allowed to compound for the future is better than the free dollar in the future.


If memory serves, someone did the math and it comes out pretty much the same, just depends on whether you prefer early tax or late tax.  I'm of the "not until I have to" camp but of course contribute to a Roth, and will so long as I'm eligible.


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## geekette (Aug 26, 2015)

KauaiMark said:


> No panic here but when these big events come around, I look to add to the stuff I'm already into.
> 
> ...Mark



Yes, I like the opportunity to average down while getting better yield.


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## geekette (Aug 26, 2015)

*RMD simulation*

http://seekingalpha.com/article/346...ng-required-minimum-distributions-from-an-ira

This article shows a comparison of fixed income vs equity ETFS.  Hopefully can help a few people noodle out a plan for themselves.


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## Mister Sir (Aug 26, 2015)

As a recovering amateur wanna-be day trader, I try to avoid market news. I'll check my quarterly reports when they come in and remember that I'm in it for the long haul.


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## Ironwood (Aug 27, 2015)

Mister Sir said:


> As a recovering amateur wanna-be day trader, I try to avoid market news. I'll check my quarterly reports when they come in and remember that I'm in it for the long haul.



Unless your portfolio is just mad money, you really need to review it more often than quarterly or you'll be in for a rude awakening one day!

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j...vKOIBw&usg=AFQjCNHskxtFp_UEoABeQ4j9FQ324jrCrg


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## Beaglemom3 (Aug 27, 2015)

We're not in a safe place yet, but I was able to peek at my accounts today.

Lost 3.4% since last Friday , although the mutual funds won't settle until tomorrow. Had been down about 18.5 % before the "rally", but I know a rally isn't a rebound or recovery. Choppy, unchartered waters ahead. 

I am going to move about a 1/3 of it into cash for a while. May let it ride or reinvest on another drop. Not sure.

I've held AAPL, NFLIX and GOOG for several years and FB for a few. I will hold those and the health/pharma mutual funds and let them ride.

These are interesting times and this is my plan. I've been in the market since 1983 and have always ridden things out.

-


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## Talent312 (Aug 27, 2015)

Being 55% in fixed income has been a nice cushion.
... which is appropriate, given our ages + time horizon.

As of now, I'm off a net (less additions) of .6% YTD (1% annualized).
It seems that my picks held up well against like-kind in my watchlists.
So, I'm not crying in my beer.
.


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## am1 (Aug 27, 2015)

Talent312 said:


> Being 55% in fixed income has been a nice cushion.
> ... which is appropriate, given our ages + time horizon.
> 
> As of now, I'm off a net (less additions) of .6% YTD (1% annualized).
> ...



Could be a good time to reorganize your portfolio.


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## Talent312 (Aug 27, 2015)

am1 said:


> Could be a good time to reorganize your portfolio.



BT, DT... Happy with what I got.
"It seems that my picks held up well against like-kind in my watchlists."
.


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## am1 (Aug 27, 2015)

Talent312 said:


> BT, DT... Happy with what I got.
> "It seems that my picks held up well against like-kind in my watchlists."
> .



Yes that is great.  I wish I was in your situation (investment wise) but I would adjust my holdings my hopefully to hopefully catch the upswing.


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## Elan (Aug 27, 2015)

My 401k dropped about 10% from where it was prior to the free fall.  With the last two days trading, I'm now off about 5% from prior level.  I have been thinking about going a bit more conservative for some time now.  Will evaluate with some overlay charts when things settle.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk


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## Passepartout (Aug 27, 2015)

I'm still In positive territory for the year, and made almost $4,000 today. Worry? Not me. I SAID I was defensively positioned.

Jim


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## Beaglemom3 (Aug 27, 2015)

I made up a goodly amount of "losses" yesterday and today, but did not make money.  Still, am relieved to have come back up some. 

At 63, I am being a lot more cautious than in the past. 

"Retreating" to more of a cash position than before and the rest in long held & good performing stocks and healthcare/pharma mutual funds (spread the risk) during this time of volatility. I have no oil stocks, but am holding Cheniere and OGS/One Gas for a while longer. Bought them a few years ago, don't have a lot of shares in them, though.

I liken the recent and current volatility to living in an active earthquake zone.
You get the warning tremblers, then the "big one" (or two) and then the aftershocks for a while. I'm going to a "safe place" for a long while.

The swings are troubling


0


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## am1 (Aug 27, 2015)

I will keep buying in to the market with whatever money I have.  Probably convert some to CDN stocks as the dollar is low.  

A short term play until I can purchase something that offers higher returns then the stock market with less ups and downs.


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## easyrider (Aug 28, 2015)

The fed said they are considering raising interest rates. It might be time to set the stop loss.

Bill


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## geekette (Aug 28, 2015)

easyrider said:


> The fed said they are considering raising interest rates. It might be time to set the stop loss.
> 
> Bill



Or get ready to buy more on new panic downturn.  Higher interest rate is highly unlikely to push any of my companies into bankruptcy.

Regardless, I'll believe the higher rates are happening when they finally show up!


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## lizap (Aug 28, 2015)

The market is expecting higher rates, so I see little to no effect on a .25% hike..




easyrider said:


> The fed said they are considering raising interest rates. It might be time to set the stop loss.
> 
> Bill


----------



## Ironwood (Aug 28, 2015)

easyrider said:


> The fed said they are considering raising interest rates. It might be time to set the stop loss.
> 
> Bill[/QUOTE
> 
> ...


----------



## geekette (Aug 28, 2015)

Ironwood said:


> easyrider said:
> 
> 
> > The fed said they are considering raising interest rates. It might be time to set the stop loss.
> ...


----------



## WinniWoman (Aug 28, 2015)

Ironwood said:


> easyrider said:
> 
> 
> > The fed said they are considering raising interest rates. It might be time to set the stop loss.
> ...


----------



## traveldaddy (Aug 30, 2015)

I would never want to encourage someone to deviate from executing on a well thought out plan.

This is an interesting weekly commentary that some might find valuable:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150831.htm

May everyone's returns meet their NEEDS (as opposed to wants) going forward. 

Regards.

Craig


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## bogey21 (Aug 30, 2015)

If anyone cares, note that Silver is on sale.  I just bought a bunch of 2015 1 oz .9999 silver Mexican Libertads for a little over $19 each.

George


----------



## tompalm (Aug 30, 2015)

This is a trader's market for day or swing trading (3-8 days). Either go long and forget about it, or trade using technical analysis. A stop loss should be set right below the 200 day line. I got worried in May and thought a sell off was coming. We sold out and went to cash and have been on the sidelines. I did buy SH or short the index a week ago only to hold it for one day and got out because I didn't expect this sell off to be so strong. I just bought SH again on Friday at 3:45 p.m. EST, but not very much. If the market is down at 9 a.m. tomorrow, I will be buying more. It might only be a 1-5 day trade, depending on technical analysis and watching for a reversal candle. Friday was a doji candle, showing the market should reverse. But no guarantee on that. 

Most newsletters I follow suggest the market will be higher at the end of the year.  The consensus is the Fed, the Chinese government and ECB will step in to support the market. But they will not be able to keep doing that much longer. 

Right now, it looks like the market might go down and test the low we just put in last week and consolidate before going lower or higher.  The futures are down 164 points for tomorrow.  I hope we just put in a higher low and not sell off like last week. Standby for another volatile week. It is not looking good right now.


----------



## tompalm (Aug 30, 2015)

bogey21 said:


> If anyone cares, note that Silver is on sale.  I just bought a bunch of 2015 1 oz .9999 silver Mexican Libertads for a little over $19 each.
> 
> George



I have been thinking that for over a year and have been in SLV, SLW,GDX and others just to stop out and take a small loss. But, Gold, oil and other commodities are making their way higher. I started buying gold miners recently and also hold SA and NG. Silver is looking really good too. Thanks for the post. Lots of newsletters are recommending gold right now and silver should follow. West Texas Intermediate oil should hold in the $40s or higher, but that is a crap shoot. The refiners are doing well, but the fraking companies like EOG have taken a lot of damage. If you like to gamble, that is a good area, but otherwise avoid energy for now.  If the Fed raises rates, the dollar should go higher and commodities should go lower. So anything mentioned above might be on sale at better prices later.


----------



## tompalm (Aug 30, 2015)

am1 said:


> I will keep buying in to the market with whatever money I have.  Probably convert some to CDN stocks as the dollar is low.
> 
> A short term play until I can purchase something that offers higher returns then the stock market with less ups and downs.



If you have 20 years left to work, dollar cost average works great. When you get close to retirement, the priority should be on safe investments and not take another loss like the market did in 2008. A good timing tool or program is Sector Surfer. It will send an email to you when to go to cash. But the market might already be down 20 percent when you get that. The advantage is you avoid going down 50 percent and it will tell you when it is time to buy back in. This worked great in 2008. It also sent a signal in 2011 that didn't help anyone because the market only went down 20 percent and a couple months later started back up. At that time, another email was sent telling everyone to buy. Here is a video and link to the home page if interested. Cost about $10 per month. 

http://youtu.be/8Q9fspvOhSc

http://www.sumgrowth.com/default.aspx


----------



## tompalm (Aug 30, 2015)

easyrider said:


> Last week on Monday we sold most of our stock. I haven't even consider owning a mutual fund since 2006 or so. The reason we sold were the market indicators were looking bad. The DJT is way off. Trucking and exports are way off.
> 
> 
> http://www.dat.com/resources/trendlines
> ...



Solar is a fantastic investment. I am getting better than 30 percent return in Hawaii and have seen lots of people doing better than that. I just can't believe how many people don't buy solar. I was a consultant for solar for two years and told all my neighbors about it. Only about 20 percent of them got it and the rest of them never understood the investment opportunity.  Most roofs around my house are still empty today. 

The point is, investments should be broad based in different areas, Real estate, stocks, solar or anything else that saves money. Some people just go to cash or their local bank and never invest.


----------



## am1 (Aug 30, 2015)

Yes the timeframe of needing the money makes a big difference to invest in.  I am hoping my investment in stocks is for the short term.  I prefer to invest in other assets.  

I own part of a teak tree company which has a very long term outlook.  No one take this as advice to do the same as there are some very bad investments in this arena.  I am interested in rental properties and raw land but it takes a long time to get the capital together.  That is where stocks come in.  Very easy to get in and out.  

Stocks are easy but I do think people would be better off investing in other assets.  Corporations have a lot of overhead and insider trading.  But the mindset is stocks and bonds as a lot of people are supported by it.

My next house will have solar.  



tompalm said:


> If you have 20 years left to work, dollar cost average works great. When you get close to retirement, the priority should be on safe investments and not take another loss like the market did in 2008. A good timing tool or program is Sector Surfer. It will send an email to you when to go to cash. But the market might already be down 20 percent when you get that. The advantage is you avoid going down 50 percent and it will tell you when it is time to buy back in. This worked great in 2008. It also sent a signal in 2011 that didn't help anyone because the market only went down 20 percent and a couple months later started back up. At that time, another email was sent telling everyone to buy. Here is a video and link to the home page if interested. Cost about $10 per month.
> 
> http://youtu.be/8Q9fspvOhSc
> 
> http://www.sumgrowth.com/default.aspx


----------



## geekette (Aug 31, 2015)

am1 said:


> Yes the timeframe of needing the money makes a big difference to invest in.  I am hoping my investment in stocks is for the short term.  I prefer to invest in other assets.
> 
> I own part of a teak tree company which has a very long term outlook.  No one take this as advice to do the same as there are some very bad investments in this arena.  I am interested in rental properties and raw land but it takes a long time to get the capital together.  That is where stocks come in.  Very easy to get in and out.
> 
> ...



Diversity is good, along with the general caution of invest only in what you  understand, beware speculative businesses (not necessarily Avoid, just perform your due diligence).  Indeed, stocks are very easy to buy without heavy minimums nor large broker fees, not too difficult to buy bonds but bond funds very easy to buy.  For treasuries, treasurydirect.gov lets you cut out middleman.

I personally want no part of real estate beyond my home (I'm not suited to it), so I buy REITs and let someone else be front lines.  I only have them in retirement accounts, bringing up another point of hold your assets in the correct type of account.  For example, tax exempt munis don't belong in your tax shelters, but TIPS do.  Stocks can go anywhere, just understand taxation of divs and gains/losses, a gentle reminder for anything you own!  

One REIT I like, Realty Income Corp (ticker O) is "the monthly dividend company" and I happen to be partial to getting paid as frequently as possible.  

As a previous poster said, I do not want to discourage anyone from their well-thought-out-plan.  Mine is to stay the course with quality div paying stocks until the end of life and let my heirs continue to benefit from quarterly payments.  I'll chuck the dayjob when monthly divs are higher than paycheck (possibly 7 years, more like 10 based on conservative projections).  

I expect that sounds way too risky to most folks but it is entirely suitable to me and keeps market watching, agonizing decisions and fees to a minimum.  I own over 70 companies at this point, some held for over 20 years.  Probably they won't all last my lifetime but I expect that and would sell a company whose earnings fail to continue increasing.  It is less work to own an ETF but less profitable and less control.  Wanting control, I'll put the time and effort in to be able to project my quarterly income per company and own only the companies I want to own.  I'm buy and hold (so far) but that does include monitoring.

I am not one that will depart stocks before/at/in retirement although I will hold more cash starting one year before retirement.  

I would recommend reading Lowell Miller's The Single Best Investment for anyone interested in owning stocks.   It is an easy read with great concepts and I believe first appeared in the late 90s.  free pdf: http://www.mhinvest.com/files/pdf/SBI_Single_Best_Investment_Miller.pdf


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## Fern Modena (Aug 31, 2015)

I've owned 100 shares in Carnival for about six years or so. Bought them at 29. I bought them partly cause of the benefits. They were only paying 25 cents a quarter in dividends (now 35 cents), BUT they had great stockholder benefits, available on Carnival, Princess, Holland America, Costa, Cunard, and other related Carnival brands around the world. If I book a 7 day cruise, I get $100. shipboard credit as a stockholder. If I book a 14 day cruise, it goes up to $250. I manage to get at least a long and a weekly cruise most years, so that's a pretty good benefit. 

The stock opened over 49 today. Its 52 week high, a couple months ago, was 54. I feel like I'm still in good position.

Fern


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## SMHarman (Aug 31, 2015)

I used to own BA for flight discounts. Now IAG

Sent from my LT26i using Tapatalk


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## x3 skier (Aug 31, 2015)

The only individual stock I own is P&G. It started as an inheritance from my grandfather many, many years ago. Through the Dividend Reivestment Program, stock splits, dollar cost averaging and growth it has grown to a nice chunk of change for my grandkids. 

The rest of my investments are in diversified low cost mutual stock and bond funds.

Cheers


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## easyrider (Sep 1, 2015)

The death cross pattern has shown up with many dow components. The dow has had the death cross this year when the 50 day moving average crossed the 100 day moving average , then again when the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average and it looks like the 50 day moving average will cross the 300 day moving average very soon.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investo...o-and-verizon-suffering-from-the-death-cross/

Septembers have had more than its shares of market drops because portfolio of  managers cleaning up their investments after labor day.

Bill


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## MichaelColey (Sep 1, 2015)

Fern Modena said:


> I've owned 100 shares in Carnival for about six years or so. Bought them at 29. I bought them partly cause of the benefits. They were only paying 25 cents a quarter in dividends (now 35 cents), BUT they had great stockholder benefits, available on Carnival, Princess, Holland America, Costa, Cunard, and other related Carnival brands around the world. If I book a 7 day cruise, I get $100. shipboard credit as a stockholder. If I book a 14 day cruise, it goes up to $250. I manage to get at least a long and a weekly cruise most years, so that's a pretty good benefit.





SMHarman said:


> I used to own BA for flight discounts.



Any other stocks with good stockholder benefits?  I've seen old lists, but it seems that most stockholder perks have been removed for most companies.


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## dmharris (Sep 5, 2015)

Got this from USB the other day:

"China's growth model is clearly transitioning
away from infrastructure spending and more towards
consumer spending and services. This shift is proving to be
bumpy but it needn't derail the US expansion. US exports to
China are less than 1% of GDP. As a reminder, the US
economy is largely driven by US consumer spending, which
remains on solid footing (the job market continues to grow,
consumer balance sheets are in the best shape in years, and
lower gasoline prices are a positive).
• Markets will likely remain choppy until there is more evidence
that China will avoid a "hard landing" and the US expansion
remains on track."


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## Jason245 (Sep 5, 2015)

Passepartout said:


> With the current stock market dive, is anybody panicking? I am positioned pretty defensively, but still it's unnerving to see the precipitous decline. I really don't want to sit and watch another 2007-style drop in assets, waiting for it to reverse direction.
> 
> Jim


Look at market cap to gdp and shiller pe ratio. .also look at amount of margin in market. 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


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## tompalm (Sep 5, 2015)

Good info here that I agree with. It looks like another 2011. 

http://sumgrowth.com/downloads/PostCrashBehavior.pdf


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## Ironwood (Sep 17, 2015)

Another good example this afternoon of how you can get hurt with 'stop loss orders'!  The Fed held firm on rates at the 2 pm announcement.....but traders with their finger on the 'sell button' took US indices down sharply just as the announcement was made for markets to fully rebound within a few minutes.  Many investors with fairly tight stops would have been whipsawed out!  I do use stop losses on specific stocks or rare occasions, and fortunately I wasn't stopped out of anything today!
Have a look at the charts for the Dow and S & P for today's trading.  One image says it all!
Just a word to the wise!


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## Talent312 (Sep 17, 2015)

For what it's worth: Raymond James is bullish on world markets over the next 20 years. They believe that demand for consumer goods in China, India and Brazil will put large multinationals in the drivers' seat over the long-haul.

_Note:_ I am not affiliated with Raymond James... Just heard an employee say it.

I remain 55% in bonds, as I am near retirement and my tolerance for turbulence is not what it used to be.


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## codersteve (Sep 18, 2015)

indices charts look ugly, bear flagging, I would wait and sit out until dust settles.


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