# Count Down to June 1



## billymach4 (May 1, 2010)

30 days to go.....

Been too quite round here..

I need the latest and greatest news.


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## dioxide45 (May 12, 2010)

20 days and counting.


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## jimf41 (May 12, 2010)

I haven't heard anything more about the parade if that's what you're asking about. I think it was just rumor.


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## taffy19 (May 12, 2010)

I would start counting from June 20.  Sales offices are supposedly closed on June 20 for three days and then no deeded weeks will be sold.  This is what we heard a few times while we were on Maui and I heard it not only from the sales people.


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## dioxide45 (May 12, 2010)

iconnections said:


> I would start counting from June 20.  Sales offices are supposedly closed on June 20 for three days and then no deeded weeks will be sold.  This is what we heard a few times while we were on Maui and I heard it not only from the sales people.



I thought they were closing on the 17th? So many dates thrown around, it is hard to keep track.


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## billymach4 (May 12, 2010)

*Ok Change the Calendar*

Nobody ever said what year?


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## dioxide45 (May 12, 2010)

billymach4 said:


> Nobody ever said what year?



I thought it was last year, or was it two years ago?


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## jlf58 (May 12, 2010)

lets make it interesting. Anyone want to bet it happens in June ?





dioxide45 said:


> I thought it was last year, or was it two years ago?


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## taffy19 (May 12, 2010)

dioxide45 said:


> I thought they were closing on the 17th? So many dates thrown around, it is hard to keep track.


You were right, it was the 17th so no more deeds were going to be sold after the 20th.  I didn't look it up exactly.  

Other people may have heard different dates as I read that mentioned too.  I am planning to drive by the NCV's to hear the latest scoop without an update.  We drive by there often on our way to Laguna Beach.  We drove by on Mother's Day to go for dinner.


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## GregT (May 12, 2010)

I think it happens in June, and I think the first day of "sales" will be June 21st.  Considering 7 days for Right of Rescission....therefore anything sold June 21, 22 and 23 would still be revenue in Q2 2010, after Right of Rescission has lapsed (allowing for a really big parade on June 30.)

I'll be at MOC June 12-25 and will be happy to post any specifics I learn and am really hoping this thing gets rolled out while I'm there...

Good luck to all!

Greg


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## taffy19 (May 12, 2010)

Fletch said:


> lets make it interesting. Anyone want to bet it happens in June ?


I'll bet we hear in June.


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## taffy19 (May 12, 2010)

GregT said:


> I think it happens in June, and I think the first day of "sales" will be June 21st.  Considering 7 days for Right of Rescission....therefore anything sold June 21, 22 and 23 would still be revenue in Q2 2010, after Right of Rescission has lapsed (allowing for a really big parade on June 30.)
> 
> I'll be at MOC June 12-25 and will be happy to post any specifics I learn and am really hoping this thing gets rolled out while I'm there...
> 
> ...


I wished I could be there with you.     Do you recognize this view?  I believe that it is one story below you in the lock-off unit.  We enjoyed overlooking the pool and the ocean too.  A corner unit has the best of both worlds.


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## Former Cruiser (May 13, 2010)

What are you supposed to do if you want to call during the dates they're closed to make your reservation for next year?


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## Latravel (May 13, 2010)

Just the sales offices will close, not the entire Marriott timeshare division.  I wouldn't worry.


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## Cathyb (May 13, 2010)

*Emmy-an invitation*



iconnections said:


> You were right, it was the 17th so no more deeds were going to be sold after the 20th.  I didn't look it up exactly.
> 
> Other people may have heard different dates as I read that mentioned too.  I am planning to drive by the NCV's to hear the latest scoop without an update.  We drive by there often on our way to Laguna Beach.  We drove by on Mother's Day to go for dinner.



We'll be at NCV week of 9/24 (my b-day) -- how about stopping by for lunch? Cathy and Bruce


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## Cathyb (May 13, 2010)

*Emmy*



iconnections said:


> I wished I could be there with you.     Do you recognize this view?  I believe that it is one story below you in the lock-off unit.  We enjoyed overlooking the pool and the ocean too.  A corner unit has the best of both worlds.



Great pictures!  We will be heading to our 'corner' lanai at The Whaler on June 28 and will see a slightly different view than you, but beautiful all the same.:whoopie:


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## GregT (May 13, 2010)

iconnections said:


> Do you recognize this view?  I believe that it is one story below you in the lock-off unit.



Thanks very much!!!   Lots of happy memories of that place!  That's indeed one floor below our Week 24 unit, a wonderful spot.

Thanks for posting the pictures!


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## RandR (May 13, 2010)

Fletch said:


> lets make it interesting. Anyone want to bet it happens in June ?



Fletch, do you think we could get Vegas to put a line on it?


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## taffy19 (May 13, 2010)

Cathyb said:


> We'll be at NCV week of 9/24 (my b-day) -- how about stopping by for lunch? Cathy and Bruce


Thanks, I will send you an email.


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## taffy19 (May 14, 2010)

It looks like we will get a formal announcement soon.  Any more bets that it is still only a rumor? Hang on to your wallets.  



GregT said:


> Just got this from my sales rep (thanks by the way, in case you're reading this thread!  ) forwarded on a notice he received.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## m61376 (May 14, 2010)

IF they do announce a plan mid-June and IF they charge to join, I can just imagine how happy those last minute purchasers will be who bought because they thought they were getting a bargain. Talk about changing the rules before the ink is even dry....


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## taffy19 (May 14, 2010)

How do you think the owners felt :annoyed:  who bought a timeshare at full price a week before the prices went down by *25%* as it was too late for them to rescind the contract?  We happened to be at the MOC when the 25% discount was announced.

I have a feeling that most direct buyers felt pretty upset  when they found out that they could have bought at a much lower price if they only had waited but that is life so make the best of it.  It happens all the time with other purchases too but it is a bitter pill to swallow.

I have a feeling that they will have discounts too in the future to sell their point package if people are not signing up in droves.  JMHO.  Times are tough for developers but times are tough for consumers too and certainly if you have to sell in today's market.  It's plain awful but good for someone who wants to buy today.


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## m61376 (May 14, 2010)

True- just never thought about it that way.


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## dioxide45 (May 15, 2010)

If a change does come. I wonder how they will introduce it? Will they send out mailers, or a simple e-mail? Perhaps they may not send anything at all and try to rope people in at a sales presentation. I think the latter is the most likely. They don't want you to have the opportunity to analyze a new program very much. They want you to buy on the spot with as little knowledge as possible at a sales presentation.


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## Latravel (May 15, 2010)

I bought shortly before the sale.  With the sale, you didn't get any incentive points.  I may have paid a higher price but I got lots of points that bought me my Italy trip.  I think I came out ahead so I wasn't upset at all.

I'm taking notes of all those people who said this was all a rumor.  I wonder how they'll feel after it's announced?


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## dioxide45 (May 15, 2010)

Latravel said:


> I'm taking notes of all those people who said this was all a rumor.  I wonder how they'll feel after it's announced?



At this point is is still just a rumor. Even if/when announced, all this discussion is still just that, rumor. If something is announced, I have a suspicion it will be far different than anything that has been discussed here.


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## Latravel (May 15, 2010)

dioxide45 said:


> At this point is is still just a rumor. Even if/when announced, all this discussion is still just that, rumor.



Interesting...

I hope you're right.  I like things the way they are but in the face of all these memos from Marriott personnel, I would feel silly not believing but I still hope you're right.


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## dougp26364 (May 15, 2010)

dioxide45 said:


> If a change does come. I wonder how they will introduce it? Will they send out mailers, or a simple e-mail? Perhaps they may not send anything at all and try to rope people in at a sales presentation. I think the latter is the most likely. They don't want you to have the opportunity to analyze a new program very much. They want you to buy on the spot with as little knowledge as possible at a sales presentation.



I think that at this point, we can remove the "if" and replace it with "when". A change of some sort is coming. 

How will they announce it? E-mail, phone calls, direct mail, industry announcements and on-site promotions will probably be a few of the ways.

It will be interesting if this is an offer you can think about or has to be made on the spot. Since it's just a program change I would like to think they'll allow people to think about it. It still wouldn't surprise me if they offered incentives to join now rather than think and wait.


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## Latravel (May 15, 2010)

They'll probably announce it in a similar manner as the points "upgrade".  Probably some new important announcement as soon as you log into the vacation club web site.  There may be some announcement on the Marriott website.  There's probably a large sales/public relations department in Marriott headquarters discussing the roll out and printing brochures.


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## DanCali (May 15, 2010)

iconnections said:


> I have a feeling that they will have discounts too in the future to sell their point package if people are not signing up in droves.  JMHO.  Times are tough for developers but times are tough for consumers too and certainly if you have to sell in today's market.  It's plain awful but good for someone who wants to buy today.



Just another reason not to sign up before you get a chance to digest if any new program fits your needs. 

Tell them to keep their "incentives" and if your decide the program is so good your biggest reward will be the privilege to join.


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## DanCali (May 15, 2010)

Latravel said:


> I bought shortly before the sale.  With the sale, you didn't get any incentive points.  I may have paid a higher price but I got lots of points that bought me my Italy trip.  I think I came out ahead so I wasn't upset at all.



I used to call this "mental accounting" when I taught...


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## taffy19 (May 15, 2010)

dougp26364 said:


> I think that at this point, we can remove the "if" and replace it with "when". A change of some sort is coming.
> 
> How will they announce it? E-mail, phone calls, direct mail, industry announcements and on-site promotions will probably be a few of the ways.
> 
> It will be interesting if this is an offer you can think about or has to be made on the spot. Since it's just a program change I would like to think they'll allow people to think about it. It still wouldn't surprise me if they offered incentives to join now rather than think and wait.


I believe that I heard that the *new program* will be rolled out in the fall but I am not sure if I heard it right because he was talking to another couple but this is what I overheard while on Maui. I didn't post it because I wonder what they would be doing between June and fall? Would this be the time to try to convert the present owners?  

Why is the Marriott not announcing the new system to us so that the rumors will stop? This is hurting everyone and the Marriott included as it is far from professional to let the rumors run wild like that. JMHO.


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## Latravel (May 15, 2010)

DanCali said:


> I used to call this "mental accounting" when I taught...



A very fascinating article but it was easy to justify our purchase.  We wanted to buy a unit at NCV but we'd rather have the points over the discount so we didn't buy.


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## taffy19 (May 15, 2010)

Latravel said:


> I bought shortly before the sale. With the sale, you didn't get any incentive points. I may have paid a higher price but I got lots of points that bought me my Italy trip. I think I came out ahead so I wasn't upset at all.
> 
> I'm taking notes of all those people who said this was all a rumor. I wonder how they'll feel after it's announced?


Heidi, I don't know if you are aware of the prices at the MOC for the new towers and certainly for the fixed units as a 25% reduction in price is not exactly peanuts. You could travel around the world in style for that, I am sure.

We bought long before the discount was offered but still felt bad about it too but I really felt sorry for the people who bought a week earlier so were too late to rescind the contract. Since most of them do not read TUG, they may not even realize yet how much their timeshare has depreciated. Pretty soon, it's going to be pennies on the dollar if Marriott is going to behave like another Wyndham.


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## taffy19 (May 15, 2010)

DanCali said:


> Just another reason not to sign up before you get a chance to digest if any new Tell them to keep their "incentives" and if your decide the program is so good your biggest reward will be the privilege to join.


Thanks Dan. We are not biting but I am willing to listen to the offer. 

PS. That is an interesting article.


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## Latravel (May 15, 2010)

iconnections said:


> Heidi, I don't know if you are aware of the prices at the MOC for the new towers and certainly for the fixed units as a 25% reduction in price is not exactly peanuts. You could travel around the world in style for that, I am sure.




Did you buy at MOC?  We thought it was too expensive.  We purchased at Shadow Ridge before the sale.  The sale would have saved us around $4,000without points.  With our full price purchase, we got enough points for a $16,000 vacation (with points left over) so we think we came out ahead.


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## taffy19 (May 15, 2010)

Yes, we did at pre-construction prices.  I remember that we couldn't use it the first year because it wasn't finished yet but we didn't have to pay the maintenance fee.

This March was our third visit. We love the resort but to see the price drop 25% by the developer didn't sit well with us. On the other hand, what is the difference because it had devalued anyway the moment you walk out of the office. Most people don't realize that but we do here so buying a re-sale unit is so much smarter.  

Have a look at my pictures while we saw it going up. We hope that we still can visit there often. We love Maui!


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## DanCali (May 15, 2010)

Latravel said:


> Did you buy at MOC?  We thought it was too expensive.  We purchased at Shadow Ridge before the sale.  The sale would have saved us around $4,000without points.  With our full price purchase, we got enough points for a $16,000 vacation (with points left over) so we think we came out ahead.



Like I said - mental accounting  

You can buy 500,000 Marriott points for $6250...  (although, it may take a few years or many family members to do it). Put that on a Marriott Visa and you get 506,250 points. Seems like a bargain if they are actually worth $16,000.  

At most, the points you got are worth what they would cost you to buy them from Marriott... But if you prefer to value airline tickets at $5000 a piece and hotel rooms at $1000 a night then you and your family should buy as many points from Marriott as they would let you (and from Starwood for that matter; their points are equally "valuable") !


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## Latravel (May 15, 2010)

You obviously haven't taught anything to do with math!  I'm not sure how to answer your post other than to say you should share your knowledge asap with all those people on flyertalk who work so hard to collect points. 

See previous posts on this subject.


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## jlf58 (May 15, 2010)

Your credibility is looking better and better. 
BTW
Did you hear that Tiger Woods might have cheated on his wife a time or 12 ? . Boy, do people like to start rumors or what !! 
I am with you, there is no reason to think something is happening with Marriott since they have't offically announced it, right ? Its not like there are clues or anything. They are probably closing the offces down for a big party or soemthing.Maybe it's Tiger Woods BD and they want to make him feel better so they are throwing him a party with ballons and stuff !! 





dioxide45 said:


> At this point is is still just a rumor. Even if/when announced, all this discussion is still just that, rumor. If something is announced, I have a suspicion it will be far different than anything that has been discussed here.


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## dioxide45 (May 15, 2010)

Fletch said:


> Your credibility is looking better and better.



Fletch, you were the one claiming "first hand" knowledge of a new program. My or any other doubters credibility was never in question. You have far more to lose if nothing happens than I or anyone else if Marriott does come out with something.

History speaks for a lot. This rumor has been ongoing since I joined this board many years ago. There is no more reason to believe it will happen today than it would those many other times. None of us have first hand knowledge, except perhaps you. But you have no details and just continue to feed the fire.



DanCali said:


> Just another reason not to sign up before you get a chance to digest if any new program fits your needs.
> 
> Tell them to keep their "incentives" and if your decide the program is so good your biggest reward will be the privilege to join.



I agree, if taking a "tour" don't sign up on day one. This is true with any TS purcahse. If there are incentives, just like in the past they will be there if you come back the next day or a month later.



Latravel said:


> They'll probably announce it in a similar manner as the points "upgrade".  Probably some new important announcement as soon as you log into the vacation club web site.  There may be some announcement on the Marriott website.  There's probably a large sales/public relations department in Marriott headquarters discussing the roll out and printing brochures.



I think you will see an announcement, a press release and perhaps mailers (e-mail and snail mail). BUT, I doubt you will get any of details in any correspondence. They want to get you in front of one of their expert salesman who can spin it and give you no chance to really research it and digest the numbers before signing on the dotted line. A new program won't change their tried and true sales practices.


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## DanCali (May 15, 2010)

Since the other points thread is kicking on all 5 cylinders this morning I'll digress a bit here...



Latravel said:


> You obviously haven't taught anything to do with math!



Whatever I taught was at undergraduate and graduate levels, so maybe I need help with some more elemantary stuff...

Which part did I get wrong - that 500,000 points at $12.50 per 1000 cost $6250, or that 500,000 + 6250 = 506,250?



Latravel said:


> I'm not sure how to answer your post other than to say you should share your knowledge asap with all those people on flyertalk who work so hard to collect points.
> 
> See previous posts on this subject.



Seriously - enlighten me! How can something you can buy for $6000 really be worth $16,000 without any form of "fuzzy math" or "mental accounting"?


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## PerryM (May 15, 2010)

*Pig eat pig is an economic law....*



iconnections said:


> *How do you think the owners felt :annoyed:  who bought a timeshare at full price a week before the prices went down by 25% as it was too late for them to rescind the contract?*  We happened to be at the MOC when the 25% discount was announced.
> ...



This is the Achilles Heel of timeshares - timeshares just don't work when real estate prices decline.

Personally I don't think real estate will recover and make new highs for 5 to 10 years - what will timeshares do in the mean time?

The developers should be donning their thinking caps, tightening their belts, and slashing away at the pork that oozes out of them.  Porky Pig eat your heart out.

I suspect many large timeshare organizations will run out of ideas and be snapped up by larger porkers who will then be eaten by even larger porkers.

It's pig eat pig out there right now folks.....


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## Latravel (May 15, 2010)

DanCali said:


> Since the other points thread is kicking on all 5 cylinders this morning I'll digress a bit here...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




If you knew more about points and what they could get you, you'd understand.  If you have 1/2 million points and you didn't get a vacation worth more than $6000, you have to log onto TUG more to learn some tips on how to maximize the value you get from points.  There are a few people here who are really good at the points game.

I don't have enough time (or will) to explain but there are lots of posts on the subject.


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## tlwmkw (May 15, 2010)

Many of us collect the points for free (by using the credit card and taking tours).  Those points are just as valuable as the other ones and make the cost go down, down, down (no matter what math you are using).   Anyway those free points allowed us to stay at the Marriott Grosvenor Square for a week last year in an upgraded room with free breakfast (which would have cost a couple of thousand if we had paid rack rates), plus fly over there (four of us in August which would have cost $4000).  If you stay in Eurozone cities in high end hotels you can see how the points can actually be worth a great deal.  That said I haven't traded in my week for points though with the price I paid for the MGV week I don't think it would be a mistake because the price was much lower than retail is now.

tlwmkw


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## dougp26364 (May 15, 2010)

iconnections said:


> I believe that I heard that the *new program* will be rolled out in the fall but I am not sure if I heard it right because he was talking to another couple but this is what I overheard while on Maui. I didn't post it because I wonder what they would be doing between June and fall? Would this be the time to try to convert the present owners?
> 
> Why is the Marriott not announcing the new system to us so that the rumors will stop? This is hurting everyone and the Marriott included as it is far from professional to let the rumors run wild like that. JMHO.



I really think it's only hurting those of us on TUG. While there are a lot of TUG members, we're nothing but a drop in the bucket compared to all the Marriott owners. I would almost bet that the vast majority of owners knows nothing about this past those that have been told something by the sales staff.

Marriott's not going to announce anything until all the pieces are in place. Those pieces would include being registered to sell the new product in every state and educating their sales staff on the basics of the new program and how they want them to sell it. My bet is the emphasis is more on how to sell it than how it works. Once it's announced, it's going to be up to the owners to figure out the in's and out's of the finer points that can be manipulated. 

The trend in timeshare is points based reservations. Marriott may have been the first major hotel chain to get into timeshare but they're almost the last one to the party on a points based internal reservations program. IMHO they're losing their competitive edge by not offering something as flexable as almost everyone else in the game. Marriott has a great product as it stands now but, Marriott is more interested in sales. If they feel that they're losing sales by not offering a product that competes with Hitlon, Disney, Starwood, Bluegreen, Wyndham, DRI, Shell, Festiva et.....then they're going to change. 

Weeks based exchanging is slowly becoming a thing of the past. IMO that's unfortunate but only because I've learned how to manipulate it to my advantage. On the other hand, three of our seven timeshares are currently in points based internal reservations systems. I've adapted to those systems and have learned how to manipulate those to our advantage. 

For me it's not a matter of if but when Marriott makes a change. I'm not 100% convinced the roll out will be this June but I am convinced it's coming sooner rather than later. There are enough TUG members that we'll always have an ear to the ground and hear what may be coming long before the general non-TUG member owner will. Thus, we'll debate things to death long before they happen. That's what we've seen on this subject as it's been debated for over two years. 

I'm not worried about any change Marriott might make. I am interested in what the product will look like and, based on my past experience with points and the experiece of DVC owners with that product, I'm convinced it will have it's merits and we will be more likely that not to join. But, I am worried about home resort advantage. We bought specific views and we would be very hesitant to give up the guarentee of that view if the thought crosses my mind that ANY owner will have a shot at reserving the view for which we've paid. I'm not going to be thrilled about the prospect of some ocean view owner trumping my contract where I paid extra to guarentee and ocean front view. Yes I'll have more points but, if one can borrow points or save points, it's possible that they can jump the line in any given year to reserve a unit view they didn't pay for. THAT'S what bothers me the most.

With our other points based systems, I still have a home resort advantage. I can book the unit I paid for before the others have the opportunity. On the other hand, as an example using Hilton, if I want to upgrade at my home resort to a penthouse suite, I can do that so long as they are available AFTER the home resort advantage period has expired. Most of the time I see those units available. Granted I'd have to save or borrow points to make it happen but, I can make it happen. If Marriott doesn't offer some sort of home resort window, I may be very hesitant to make a change. I like my guarentee and the certainty that goes along with it that I'll always have a particular view and unit type when I make my reservations.


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## dougp26364 (May 15, 2010)

PerryM said:


> This is the Achilles Heel of timeshares - timeshares just don't work when real estate prices decline.
> 
> Personally I don't think real estate will recover and make new highs for 5 to 10 years - what will timeshares do in the mean time?
> 
> ...



Darn Perry, for once I have to agree with you. Real estate is still in the tank and will get worse as unemployment payments start to run out. 

Timeshare is very likely to go into a consolidation phase over the next few years. We've already seen DRI assume Sunterra and amost consume Bluegreen. Westgate is looking like it's on the ropes right now. The question will be, who has the money to pig out on the fallen? Money is still tight and developers appear to have been working off revloving credit, which has long since dried up when the market for their loans bundled as junk bonds when south with the stock market. It will be an interesting period these next few years to see who falls out of the tree that's being shaken by the financial market fall out.


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## jlf58 (May 15, 2010)

I actually have nothing to lose. I told you what I knew which is the same as what 100's of other people know and that isn't going to change regardless of what they do. That said , you have been given the date, what else do you need ?
The RUMOR for years was that they would go to points, no specifice time frame or date was given. It is now here and you know that date, I am not sure why you can't connect the dots ... just sayin 




dioxide45 said:


> Fletch, you were the one claiming "first hand" knowledge of a new program. My or any other doubters credibility was never in question. You have far more to lose if nothing happens than I or anyone else if Marriott does come out with something.
> 
> History speaks for a lot. This rumor has been ongoing since I joined this board many years ago. There is no more reason to believe it will happen today than it would those many other times. None of us have first hand knowledge, except perhaps you. But you have no details and just continue to feed the fire.
> 
> ...


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## Latravel (May 16, 2010)

tlwmkw said:


> Many of us collect the points for free (by using the credit card and taking tours).  Those points are just as valuable as the other ones and make the cost go down, down, down (no matter what math you are using).   Anyway those free points allowed us to stay at the Marriott Grosvenor Square for a week last year in an upgraded room with free breakfast (which would have cost a couple of thousand if we had paid rack rates), plus fly over there (four of us in August which would have cost $4000).  If you stay in Eurozone cities in high end hotels you can see how the points can actually be worth a great deal.  That said I haven't traded in my week for points though with the price I paid for the MGV week I don't think it would be a mistake because the price was much lower than retail is now.
> 
> tlwmkw





Perfect example of the value of points...


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## PerryM (May 16, 2010)

*iPhone - iShare?*



dougp26364 said:


> Darn Perry, for once I have to agree with you. Real estate is still in the tank and will get worse as unemployment payments start to run out.
> 
> Timeshare is very likely to go into a consolidation phase over the next few years. We've already seen DRI assume Sunterra and amost consume Bluegreen. Westgate is looking like it's on the ropes right now. The question will be, who has the money to pig out on the fallen? Money is still tight and developers appear to have been working off revloving credit, which has long since dried up when the market for their loans bundled as junk bonds when south with the stock market. It will be an interesting period these next few years to see who falls out of the tree that's being shaken by the financial market fall out.



Right this very second timeshares are ripe to be knocked off by something equivalent to the iPhone - call it the iShare.

Timeshares are still the butt end of comedians and TV shows - their reputation is being tarnished everyday by all the con-artists who run 1 month old timeshare resale companies - I get at least 1 phone call, to my cell phone, each day wanting to buy my timeshares.

I still like the concept of a Destination Club but with 100% owner equity.  Basically a start up company could go out and snap up million dollar condos and sell Points of equity in them.  No 200 condo complexes need to be built - just buy dozens of fantastic bargain condos and homes and have them up and running in a month.

But we are years away from fixing the broken real estate market - hope timeshares make it...


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## DanCali (May 16, 2010)

tlwmkw said:


> Anyway those free points allowed us to stay at the Marriott Grosvenor Square for a week last year in an upgraded room with free breakfast (which would have cost a couple of thousand if we had paid rack rates



Exactly my point - who in their right mind paid rack rates? That's why you cannot say the value of points that get you a free room is equal to the rack rate...

I took Heidi's advice and found this FT thread:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/marriott-rewards/136148-whats-value-marriott-rewards-point.html

It seems the common sense valuation is $0.01 per point, but some insist they are worth much more than the actual cost to buy them from Marriott ($0.0125 per point). More power to them...


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## timeos2 (May 16, 2010)

*None so blind as those who refuse to see the truth*



DanCali said:


> Exactly my point - who in their right mind paid rack rates? That's why you cannot say the value of points that get you a free room is equal to the rack rate...
> 
> I took Heidi's advice and found this FT thread:
> 
> ...



Isn't it amazing what people can convince themselves of to fit a preconceived or desired outcome/value?  They paid too much, are getting a poor return by converting to points of declining value but manipulate the math until they can say "what a deal".  I fully understand the desire (hey, the up front money is long gone - they have to try to say they got a value somehow to appease at least themselves!) but no reasonable, non-vested outside view of this type of thing ever says its a good way to go. At best it's a way not to completely lose all value invested to minimize an even bigger loss.  

The exact same tortured logic shows up with other groups like Wyndham VIP (after the end of resale gaining access) that try to make a $35 savings in Housekeeping fees, a newspaper a day on a visit and even a points discount (nice, but not at the cost to get it!)  worth ten of thousands of dollars on upfront purchase cost from the developer. No matter how many times you can show that buying at 90% or more less and using the tens of thousands saved will pay for those "freebies" for 5 lifetimes or more they insist they are getting "a deal" or "saving" with VIP. After awhile you just have to shake your head and laugh at how a person can willingly fool themselves to justify money they spent needlessly. 

Understand we've all done it and, in those cases, we are more than willing to believe ourselves as it makes us feel much better. Unfortunately sales weasels know it too and really use it against us.


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## tlwmkw (May 16, 2010)

Dancali and timeos2,

I quoted the price of the rooms at the Marriott Grosvenor Square and I had looked for the cheapest prices for that hotel at that time on the internet using various low price web sites ( I guess I shouldn't have said rack rates- I'm sure those would have been even higher)- the cheapest I could find a room at that hotel for one night in August with the upgrades was 300 pounds a night which would have been 1800 pounds for the 6 nights which would translate to about $3240 at the exchange rate when we went.  To me that shows the value of points- if you are staying in a european city you aren't going to find many cheap hotels (unless you want to stay in a horrible place and share a bathroom).  If you use the points this way then you can get more value from them.  I'm not trying to justify the price I paid for my timeshares I'm just showing that there is some value to points (even if they have been devalued recently).  If I was trying to justify the price we paid for our MGV I would mention the six nights at the Renaissance at Seaworld that were paid with Marriott bucks when we bought, as well as free tickets to Seaworld, and a boatload of Marriott points that we received with our purchase.  The value that we got from all that has already covered the initial purchase price that we paid- now that was long ago before all the devaluations and also when buying from MVCI was  a lot cheaper.  If I was doing it now I would buy re-sale but I don't regret my direct purchase at all.

tlwmkw


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## DanCali (May 16, 2010)

tlwmkw said:


> Dancali and timeos2,
> 
> I quoted the price of the rooms at the Marriott Grosvenor Square and I had looked for the cheapest prices for that hotel at that time on the internet using various low price web sites ( I guess I shouldn't have said rack rates- I'm sure those would have been even higher)- the cheapest I could find a room at that hotel for one night in August with the upgrades was 300 pounds a night which would have been 1800 pounds for the 6 nights which would translate to about $3240 at the exchange rate when we went.  To me that shows the value of points- if you are staying in a european city you aren't going to find many cheap hotels (unless you want to stay in a horrible place and share a bathroom).  If you use the points this way then you can get more value from them.  I'm not trying to justify the price I paid for my timeshares I'm just showing that there is some value to points (even if they have been devalued recently).  If I was trying to justify the price we paid for our MGV I would mention the six nights at the Renaissance at Seaworld that were paid with Marriott bucks when we bought, as well as free tickets to Seaworld, and a boatload of Marriott points that we received with our purchase.  The value that we got from all that has already covered the initial purchase price that we paid- now that was long ago before all the devaluations and also when buying from MVCI was  a lot cheaper.  If I was doing it now I would buy re-sale but I don't regret my direct purchase at all.
> 
> tlwmkw



I too have stayed on points in Europe (e.g Westin in Venice or Hilton Cavalieri in Rome) so I know these comparisons firsthand. But I never rushed to buy points just because of this type of math, which would the the logical thing to do if you truly bought into your conclusion.

Sure, I'd prefer to stay on points at a Marriott than pay those prices at a Marriott, but if I were a paying customer, I'd never pay those prices anyway unless my company picked up the tab (and even then I'd think about it). So I'd never say the points saved me $500 a night... We've found that that brands (e.g. Best Western) are usually much nicer overseas than their locations in the U.S., are much more affordable, and usually suit our needs if we resort to hotel stays. For comparison, take a look at some of the Best Westerns in London with comparable reviews/ratings to the Marriott Grosvenor Sq. on Tripadvisor and then compare the cost.


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## timeos2 (May 16, 2010)

*You can't spend the upfront money now gone or the "savings" that don't exist*



tlwmkw said:


> Dancali and timeos2,
> 
> I quoted the price of the rooms at the Marriott Grosvenor Square and I had looked for the cheapest prices for that hotel at that time on the internet using various low price web sites ( I guess I shouldn't have said rack rates- I'm sure those would have been even higher)- the cheapest I could find a room at that hotel for one night in August with the upgrades was 300 pounds a night which would have been 1800 pounds for the 6 nights which would translate to about $3240 at the exchange rate when we went.  To me that shows the value of points- if you are staying in a european city you aren't going to find many cheap hotels (unless you want to stay in a horrible place and share a bathroom).  If you use the points this way then you can get more value from them.  I'm not trying to justify the price I paid for my timeshares I'm just showing that there is some value to points (even if they have been devalued recently).  If I was trying to justify the price we paid for our MGV I would mention the six nights at the Renaissance at Seaworld that were paid with Marriott bucks when we bought, as well as free tickets to Seaworld, and a boatload of Marriott points that we received with our purchase.  The value that we got from all that has already covered the initial purchase price that we paid- now that was long ago before all the devaluations and also when buying from MVCI was  a lot cheaper.  If I was doing it now I would buy re-sale but I don't regret my direct purchase at all.
> 
> tlwmkw



To value the points at anything other than the actual amount they can be openly purchased for $.0125 is a false valuation. A point obtained at $.15 "spends" exactly the same as one obtained for $.0125. The $.15 ones were just overpriced, not more valuable.  So figure out what you paid over resale (and use real sale prices  not asking prices as again those mean nothing) to figure out what those points cost you.  Unless it's less than $.0125 then the value, at the most, is $.0125 times however many you used. What the cost may have been if you paid cash/credit card means nothing as you are dealing in points that can be purchase for that price or less.  That doesn't mean you shouldn't be happy with what you bought - just don't kid yourself about what the points "save" you.


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## Latravel (May 17, 2010)

DanCali said:


> Exactly my point - who in their right mind paid rack rates? That's why you cannot say the value of points that get you a free room is equal to the rack rate...
> 
> I took Heidi's advice and found this FT thread:
> 
> ...



Did you really take my advice and share your opinions on points and "mental accounting" to the people of flyertalk?  I'd bet you were very quiet.


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## Latravel (May 17, 2010)

If this is the case, why is there a multi-million, maybe billion, dollar business out there regarding airline/hotel/restaurant points?  Why do people fight over points in divorces?  Why are people fanatic about collecting and reaching certain category milestones (medallion, gold, etc) if they are so useless?  If they don't "save" you anything, why are many collecting them?

Anyways, lets not divert this thread as it has nothing to do with points.


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