# New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought



## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

*New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought*
A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate.









						Opinion | New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought
					

A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate.




					www.wsj.com
				




......New data support the skeptics’ view—a preliminary study by a Stanford team, released Friday. They conducted a seroprevalence study of Santa Clara County, Calif., on April 3 and 4. They studied a representative sample of 3,300 residents to test for the presence of antibodies in their blood that would show if they had previously been infected with the novel coronavirus.

The researchers found that the percentage of infections was indeed vastly larger than the roughly 1,000 known positive cases in the county at the time of the study. The preliminary results—the research will now undergo peer review—show that between 2.5% and 4.2% of county residents are estimated to have antibodies against the virus. That translates into 48,000 to 81,000 infections, 50 to 85 times as high as the number of known cases.

*That may sound scary, but it’s great news.* It suggests that the large majority of people who contract Covid-19 recover without ever knowing they were infected, and that the U.S. infection fatality rate may be more than an order of magnitude lower than authorities had assumed. Based on this seroprevalence data, the authors estimate that in Santa Clara County the true infection fatality rate is somewhere in the range of 0.12% to 0.2%—far closer to seasonal influenza than to the original, case-based estimates......

......Yet if policy makers were aware from the outset that the Covid-19 death toll would be closer to that of seasonal flu than the millions of American deaths predicted by early models dependent on inputs that now look inaccurate, would they have risked tens of millions of jobs and livelihoods? The science to support better modeling and decision making is rapidly becoming available. One hopes that it will inform better policy decisions.









						COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California
					

Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara...




					www.medrxiv.org


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## Luanne (Apr 17, 2020)

I couldn't get in to read the whole article but it looks like it's an opinion piece.  And how can someone says it's not as deadly as we thought?  How many deaths have there been so far?


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## DaveNV (Apr 17, 2020)

I can't and won't argue whether Covid-19 is as severe as flu or not.  But I do know it's deadly. This article is about a singing group up this way.  At the time of this article, it was bad enough.  But at least one additional person who was there has also died.  And this is among people who had zero symptoms at the time of their rehearsal.  So I guess my point is that it only takes once for it to kill you.









						A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead
					

The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.




					www.latimes.com
				




Dave


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## nomoretslt (Apr 17, 2020)

The problem is it’s highly contagious and those that walk around not knowing they have it end up infecting the older generation and the weaker....along with a few that don’t have any underlying conditions.

And this didn’t need to happen.  Would have been helpful to have accurate and honest information in early January.


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

Finally!  Some random sampling to test for antibodies.  We need more of this.


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

This article is good news! Why are people so upset about good news?


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This article is good news! Why are people so upset about good news?


I know the answer but don’t want to get shouted at in this group


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I couldn't get in to read the whole article but it looks like it's an opinion piece.  And how can someone says it's not as deadly as we thought?  How many deaths have there been so far?



It is an opinion piece but it is based on a scientific study at Stanford. I also provided the link for the study. Please don't dismiss science just because someone wrote an opinion piece about it. The article says that they still need to do peer review. If the death rate is lower than previously assumed, this is good news! I hope the study is right.


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## Luanne (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This article is good news! Why are people so upset about good news?


As I said, I couldn't read the entire article, it's behind a pay wall.  I saw at the top where it said "Opinion".  Maybe I'm just suspicious of opinion pieces.


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I know the answer but don’t want to get shouted at in this group



I would be interested to know why people prefer to believe all the bad news about Covid. Please share.


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## DaveNV (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This article is good news! Why are people so upset about good news?



I guess for me, it's because it isn't really that much good news.  It's like being a little bit pregnant.  If someone is at high risk for catching the virus, and if it could easily prove fatal to them if that happens, whether or not fewer people are going to die from it means little.  That anyone will die from it is still bad news - especially for that person.  People who have zero symptoms can infect others, and some of those people are going to die from that infection.  

Dave


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> I guess for me, it's because it isn't really that much good news.  It's like being a little bit pregnant.  If someone is at high risk for catching the virus, and if it could easily prove fatal to them if that happens, whether or not fewer people are going to die from it means little.  That anyone will die from it is still bad news - especially for that person.  People who have zero symptoms can infect others, and some of those people are going to die from that infection.
> 
> Dave



I get it. I know there have been many deaths. I just get excited when I read anything that says maybe this is not as bad as projected. It gives me hope.

So maybe the death rate is not as high as previously estimated, but it is still more contagious and might be affecting more people in total than the flu so we might still have a greater absolute death rate even if the percentage is the same. So it is still a scary disease. Also the symptoms are worse than the flu so that is scary too. I get there are many things different about Covid that make it feel more scary and deadly.


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## nomoretslt (Apr 17, 2020)

I’ll share.  The headline is a turnoff, especially when ones own area has been devastated with deaths...over 300 a day for days now.  Like no end in sight.  This will run its course, and as always there will be some kind of vaccine soon enough.  I really don’t want to hear how it’s not so deadly.  And opinions based on data....you know what they say about opinions.
But thanks for sharing.


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## WVBaker (Apr 17, 2020)

nomoretslt said:


> And opinions based on data....you know what they say about opinions.
> But thanks for sharing.



I would rather have opinions based on data rather than opinions for the sole reason of just having an opinion.


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

nomoretslt said:


> I’ll share.  The headline is a turnoff, especially when ones own area has been devastated with deaths...over 300 a day for days now.  Like no end in sight.  This will run its course, and as always there will be some kind of vaccine soon enough.  I really don’t want to hear how it’s not so deadly.  And opinions based on data....you know what they say about opinions.
> But thanks for sharing.



Where do you live? In New York? Here is California we have had about 1000 deaths so far and we were a state with early infections. Not good news but not as catastrophic as predicted. 300 deaths a day is a lot!


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## Talent312 (Apr 17, 2020)

Even if, ultimately, statistics show its not as bad as feared, there's still a lot of dead people who would not have died otherwise.
Try telling them. Oh, wait... They're dead. Statistics don't help them too much. <jus' saying>
.


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

Well, I read the whole article and the part that I'm happiest about is that there is reference to a study done on a random sample of n=3000 in California for COVID antibodies.  This is what we need to do -- randomized sampling for antibody testing.

Ok, I'm waiting for the "but we don't have enough tests to do that" chorus.  

Nonetheless, we don't need an entire census to get some really solid numbers to start wrapping people's brains about the true threat, so we can start opening up society again.


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Where do you live? In New York? Here is California we have had about 1000 deaths so far and we were a state with early infections. Not good news but not as catastrophic as predicted. 300 deaths a day is a lot!


NONE of the predictions have been as catastrophic as we thought.


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> Even if, ultimately, statistics show its not as bad as feared, there's still a lot of dead people who would not have died otherwise.
> Try telling them. Oh, wait... They're dead. Statistics don't help them too much. <jus' saying>
> .



There is a big difference between statistics and science and personal experience. Of course, if this affects someone personally, they do not care about the statistics and science. It is a personal catastrophe. I am not denying that. But should science and research studies stop because the results might make some people feel minimized?


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## chapjim (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> NONE of the predictions have been as catastrophic as we thought.



I'll just be happy when people start to realize that Dr. Fauci isn't the burning bush.


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## nomoretslt (Apr 17, 2020)

New Jersey, a small state, over 3,800 deaths.  We are well over souls lost on 9/11.  I am all for opening up America again, as long as people keep their nose and mouth covered, wear gloves and be sanitary.  But there will always be those who think the rules should not apply to them.


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## MrockStar (Apr 17, 2020)

I live in the Detroit metro area, 4th worst hot zone period. 60 years young, I was pretty sick with suspected CV-19 late Feb/early march self isolated missed two days off work and stayed far away from my wife who Thank God didnt get sick. SOO no hate/disparaging remarks here please. I find this news Very encouraging and makes common sense that this is/was Way more widespread earlier than anyone thought and that most of us have recovered and built up antibodies. This is good because we hopefully wont get CV-19 again and wont infect loved ones/others and WONT overload the hospitals. Plus those of use who survived this can now get back to/continue working and helping those most vulnerable in society.


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## MrockStar (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I know the answer but don’t want to get shouted at in this group


Be brave and strong.


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## chapjim (Apr 17, 2020)

nomoretslt said:


> New Jersey, a small state, over 3,800 deaths.  We are well over souls lost on 9/11.  I am all for opening up America again, as long as people keep their nose and mouth covered, wear gloves and be sanitary.  *But there will always be those who think the rules should not apply to them.*



Which is probably part of the reason for NJ's statistics.  And they mis-perceived the existential risk.


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Be brave and strong.


LOL!  Not after this week on TUG.  It's Friday afternoon.


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## Patri (Apr 17, 2020)

Luanne said:


> As I said, I couldn't read the entire article, it's behind a pay wall.  I saw at the top where it said "Opinion".  Maybe I'm just suspicious of opinion pieces.


The entire news media is opinion these days. True journalism is dead.


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## DaveNV (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> LOL!  Not after this week on TUG.  It's Friday afternoon.



Some of us are fans of yours.  Well, me anyway.  I find your opinions smart, spot-on, and well-considered.    

Dave


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## pedro47 (Apr 17, 2020)

Tell this story/article to those family members that have loss loved ones to the coronavirus and to those cruise passengers that were on Princess & Holland America cruise ships. Plus, share this opinions will all the infected coronavirus patients around the world.


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## geekette (Apr 17, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I couldn't get in to read the whole article but it looks like it's an opinion piece.  And how can someone says it's not as deadly as we thought?  How many deaths have there been so far?


Exactly!  It has killed enough people for me to consider it Deadly.  "Not As" deadly makes no difference to me.


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## geekette (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This article is good news! Why are people so upset about good news?


Because there are already over 30000 people dead here in America.  Fast.  That's pretty deadly.


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

@DaveNW You are very kind.  Thank you for that.


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## Talent312 (Apr 17, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Be brave and strong.



and have a few.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (Apr 17, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> Some of us are fans of yours.  Well, me anyway.  I find your opinions smart, spot-on, and well-considered.
> 
> Dave


I'm a fan as well.  We had one tussle (my fault), and you made me think better and more clearly.


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## geekette (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> But should science and research studies stop because the results might make some people feel minimized?


Nobody said that.  Nobody here said stop research.  Nobody.  Nobody said that.


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

I'm listening to POTUS's daily presser now.  They are discussing phase 1 antibody testing.  As far as I'm concerned this is a big YESSSSSS!!!!!!!!


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## MrockStar (Apr 17, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> and have a few.


Working right now, but I will toast you tomorrow  on my day off be safe. Health and blessings to you and your family.


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

geekette said:


> Nobody said that.  Nobody here said stop research.  Nobody.  Nobody said that.



Just do not report the research unless it says this is really deadly.


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## geekette (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Just do not report the research unless it says this is really deadly.


Who said that?  Show me.


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

geekette said:


> Who said that?  Show me.



This article has been criticized because people think it is minimizing the deaths. It is simply reporting on a study at Stanford University.


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

This is not an opinion piece.









						Coronavirus: Santa Clara County has had 50 to 85 times more cases than we knew about, Stanford estimates
					

This startling finding suggests that between 48,000 and 81,000 people were infected in Santa Clara County by early April. The results represent the first large-scale community-based prevalence stud…




					www.mercurynews.com


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## Rolltydr (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> *New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought*
> A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate.
> 
> 
> ...



BS


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> BS



Why is it BS? It is a research study at a prominent university known for superb health care.


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## Rolltydr (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I would be interested to know why people prefer to believe all the bad news about Covid. Please share.



Because we’re reading facts and data while you’re reading opinions.


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Because we’re reading facts and data while you’re reading opinions.



I posted the link to the actual research study. I also posted a journalism article, not an opinion piece. Did you read those?


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## Rolltydr (Apr 17, 2020)

nomoretslt said:


> New Jersey, a small state, over 3,800 deaths. We are well over souls lost on 9/11. I am all for opening up America again, as long as people keep their nose and mouth covered, wear gloves and be sanitary. But there will always be those who think the rules should not apply to them.



And I’ve never heard one person say that 9/11 wasn’t that bad. Have you?


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> And I’ve never heard one person say that 9/11 wasn’t that bad. Have you?



No one is saying covid is not that bad. The study simply says the death rate may not be as high as predicted. This is good news people!!!!


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## VacationForever (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> LOL!  Not after this week on TUG.  It's Friday afternoon.


Have a drink.  A drink always makes one brave, strong and sometimes stupid.


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## VacationForever (Apr 17, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> Some of us are fans of yours.  Well, me anyway.  I find your opinions smart, spot-on, and well-considered.
> 
> Dave


Me too.. i.e. a fan of Cornell.


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## Rolltydr (Apr 17, 2020)

geekette said:


> Exactly! It has killed enough people for me to consider it Deadly. "Not As" deadly makes no difference to me.



What many people fail to realize, or choose to ignore, is that many of the projections were based on doing nothing. Most states finally did something in mid-late March. They closed non-essential businesses and implemented social distancing. Of course, with 50 states, the various orders from the governors were different and a handful haven’t really done anything. So, we have a hodgepodge of orders implemented at different times and will be lifted at different times. At this time, we have no proven drugs that work well to fight the virus and we will not have a vaccine for a year or more. We don’t have enough test kits or enough people trained to professionally administer tests. Some people think because it’s spring and the weather is getting warm, the virus will magically go away. There is no proof that will happen but we can hope. 

Everybody wants things to get back to normal. So, with our hopes telling us one thing and the actual data telling us another, we are going to start opening businesses and putting people back to work, and going to the beach, and eating in restaurants, and going to the hair salon, and spending money, and it’s going to fix everything. Good luck with that.

I’ve never been more happy to be a retired introvert.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (Apr 17, 2020)

1. Personally, I don't think it's ever bad to collect more data and add it to your decision making.  (Of course that also means giving due consideration to the nature and quality of the information, not all information is created equally.)

2. I think it's important to change one's mind or modify one's thinking in response to improved information.  Just speaking, hypothetically of course, that might lead someone to say. "OMG - I might have underestimated the threat posed by a virus."  And action is taken on the basis of the new information.  And then as additional information comes in, that person might trim the other direction because the new data says that things might not be as bad as the prior data indicated.  Or the added information might indicate the need to take extra action.  Or the extra information might just make the situation more muddied.

3. One key item is to recognize that all of us, no matter how well trained we think we are or how smart we are, have confirmation biases.  The best thing that we can do is to know what our biases are and attempt to counter those biases by being more critical of information and opinions that align with our biases, and less dismissive of information and opinions that we don't agree with.  And when we clash, use that as an opportunity to hone our thinking by taking the effort to at least partly remove our bias filters.


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## pedro47 (Apr 17, 2020)

Because this study came from Stanford University one of the top research University in the United States it is an excellent paper and has merit in my book.
There are still just to many unknown factors about the coronavirus IMHO.

I just wish China would tell everyone the truth about the coronavirus. 
How it really started and how many Chinese passed away from the coronavirus?


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## T_R_Oglodyte (Apr 17, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Because this study came from Stanford University one of the top research University in the United States it is an excellent paper and has merit in my book.
> There are still just to many unknown factors about the coronavirus IMHO.


IMHO - you should not give weight to the study because it is from Stanford.  Weight should be given based on the methodology, not the institution. 

Full disclosure.  I did my post-grad work at  Stanford (Wash U St. Louis undergrad). Both excellent school. But that doesn't mean work done there doesn't need the same level of scrutiny as work completed elsewhere.  Academic elitism is pernicious formof confirmation bias.  The saga of Harlan Bretz is a wonderful example of academic snobbery in action.


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

Full disclosure... I did not go to Cornell.
It’s the name of the street I grew up on.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (Apr 17, 2020)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> 1. Personally, I don't think it's ever bad to collect more date and add it to your decision making.  (Of course that also means giving due consideration to the nature and quality of the information, not all information is created equally.)
> 
> 2. I think it's important to change one's mind or modify one's thinking in response to improved information.  Just speaking, hypothetically of course, that might lead someone to say. "OMG - I might have underestimated the threat posed by a virus."  And action is taken on the basis of the new information.  And then as additional information comes in, that person might trim the other direction because the new data sayts that things might not be as bad as the prior data indicated.  Or the added information might indicate the need to take extra action.  Or the extra information might just make the situation more muddied.
> 
> 3. One key item is to recognize that all of us, no matter how well trained we think we are or how smart we are, have confirmation biases.  The best thing that we can do is to know what our biases are and attempt to counter those biases by being more critical of information and opinions that align with our biases, and less dismissive of information and opinions that we don't agree with.  And when we clash, use that as an opportunity to hone our thinking by taking the effort to at least partly remove our bias filters.


I think I should add to the above - 

4. When you are engaged in serious decision-making, where your decisions have serious consequences, having a decision framework is critical.  You take a step back and think about the process you are going to use to make a decision.  You consider the information that you need to make a decision, why that information is important, and how sensitive that information is to your decision making.  And how you are going to qualify and vet that information before you work with it (and this is an area where I can attest from some sad personal experience, knowing and compensating for confirmation bias is crucial). 

To relate this to the current situation, having a decision-making might alert you early on to the importance of anti-body testing, but the reality is that you don't have that information available, and you determine how to proceed without information. But if that information should start to become available, you are now ready to plug it in rationally.  And most importantly, you should have already identified procedures for validating and qualifying the results.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Full disclosure... I did not go to Cornell.
> It’s the name of the street I grew up on.


I grew  up on Grand Avenue.  That doesn't mean that I think I'm grand.  I'm pretty sure my ex-employees would concur.


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

For those of you are really interested in the Stanford study that is referenced in this article, there is some detail in the Tweets from this gentlemen, 

Robert VerBruggen
@RAVerBruggen

on Twitter.  
He explains some of the detail of the sampling methodology.  

He frequently analyzes data that forms public policy and is a really interesting guy.  At least I think he is.


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## queenofthehive (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Where do you live? In New York? Here is California we have had about 1000 deaths so far and we were a state with early infections. Not good news but not as catastrophic as predicted. 300 deaths a day is a lot!


These numbers are a due to social distancing. When you open society back up you do not want to the death rate to climb like in NYC. This randomized antibody test should not give a false sense of security that all is now safe in the world. If we open up too soon some people will still be playing Russian roulette with their lives. Just because the percentage rate goes down due to more testing it does not make the virus less lethal. I also see this as a failing of not adequately testing in the beginning. If you do not test, you do not know what you are up against. You can isolate those that are positive and contain the spread. How many times have heard people that were symptomatic request for test but were denied due to their symptoms not being severe enough thus states not having adequate testing kits. I do not feel this is great news. I feel is shows  a complete lack of testing and handling in the first place. 
Randomized sampling of the antibody test so we can reopen society does not make logical sense. We must test everyone to see who is safe to go back into society or not. The more we test we will see that the death rate was not high as predicted but it is still a staggering number.


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## VacationForever (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Full disclosure... I did not go to Cornell.
> It’s the name of the street I grew up on.


... and I bet you that is your picture and you are only 16. LOL (I just know she is your daughter, unless you really still look 16. )


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> ... and I bet you that is your picture and you are only 16. LOL (I just know she is your daughter, unless you really still look 16. )


Hahahahaha That picture is me! And my daughter is now 17. She had a super fun (not really) quarantine bday with her mom.


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## TravelTime (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Hahahahaha That picture is me! And my daughter is now 17. She had a super fun (not really) quarantine bday with her mom.



I thought your name was Cornell!


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## T_R_Oglodyte (Apr 17, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> ... and I bet you that is your picture and you are only 16. LOL (I just know she is your daughter, unless you really still look 16. )


I think my picture is actually a flattering portrait - for a troglodyte.


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## R.J.C. (Apr 17, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> Even if, ultimately, statistics show its not as bad as feared, there's still a lot of dead people who would not have died otherwise.
> Try telling them. Oh, wait... They're dead. Statistics don't help them too much. <jus' saying>
> .



A lot of people die every single day from a lot of reasons. Are the ones who died from Covid-19 any more or less dead than others who died from whatever? People are acting as if we get rid of Covid-19 there won't be any more deaths in the world.


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## VacationForever (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Hahahahaha That picture is me! And my daughter is now 17. She had a super fun (not really) quarantine bday with her mom.


WOW!  You must look like sisters when you go out.  Happy Belated Birthday to your daughter.


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## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> WOW!  You must look like sisters when you go out.  Happy Belated Birthday to your daughter.


Thank you.  Her b-day is one I am sure she'll hope to forget.  Not sure if you followed her story, but she had to rush home from being a foreign exchange student from Switzerland.  Then a b-day while being quarantined.  Since then, her life has been "rudderless" -- very sad / down.  No real sense of purpose.  It's hard to watch.


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## VacationForever (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Thank you.  Her b-day is one I am sure she'll hope to forget.  Not sure if you followed her story, but she had to rush home from being a foreign exchange student from Switzerland.  Then a b-day while being quarantined.  Since then, her life has been "rudderless" -- very sad / down.  No real sense of purpose.  It's hard to watch.


Yes I did and we were all cheering for you to have her home ASAP.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (Apr 17, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> WOW!  You must look like sisters when you go out.  Happy Belated Birthday to your daughter.


Bunny trail post.  DG celebrated her sixth birthday.  We had a family Zoom birthday celebration - DG, DD, DSIL in San Diego County; DW DS3 and moi in Washington; DS1 and DDIL in Houston; and DS2 in Boulder (with a sneak appearance from DS2's SO).  It was marvelous!  As we concluded I asked why we needed to have a coronavirus isolation protocol to make something like this happen????


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## geekette (Apr 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This article has been criticized because people think it is minimizing the deaths. It is simply reporting on a study at Stanford University.


That is not the same as someone saying you should not post it.   Nobody said don't post it.


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## DaveNV (Apr 17, 2020)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> I think my picture is actually a flattering portrait - for a troglodyte.



A very happy Troglodyte. 

Dave


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## geekette (Apr 17, 2020)

queenofthehive said:


> These numbers are a due to social distancing. When you open society back up you do not want to the death rate to climb like in NYC. This randomized antibody test should not give a false sense of security that all is now safe in the world. If we open up too soon some people will still be playing Russian roulette with their lives. Just because the percentage rate goes down due to more testing it does not make the virus less lethal. I also see this as a failing of not adequately testing in the beginning. If you do not test, you do not know what you are up against. You can isolate those that are positive and contain the spread. How many times have heard people that were symptomatic request for test but were denied due to their symptoms not being severe enough thus states not having adequate testing kits. I do not feel this is great news. I feel is shows  a complete lack of testing and handling in the first place.
> Randomized sampling of the antibody test so we can reopen society does not make logical sense. We must test everyone to see who is safe to go back into society or not. The more we test we will see that the death rate was not high as predicted but it is still a staggering number.


dovetailing...

even if  ...  we have an accurate antibody test, it would still be unknown if one has true immunity or how long that immunity might last.  This is what Fauci and others have said.

there have been reports of recovered persons becoming reinfected.   I am not sure if this is true, might take more time to determine.   I would like to know more about different strains, if there really are up to 8 strains out there.  Could it be that one person could be infected by Strain A, have a mild case, recover, and then be laid out by Strain B, recover, killed by Strain C?   This is not my wheelhouse, but I am curious.  Maybe I only suffer Strain A once and never again?  Maybe Strain A recovery gives me immunity to all strains?  

Who knew we'd spend early 2020 learning all about novel coronas?


----------



## bogey21 (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> NONE of the predictions have been as catastrophic as we thought.


I watched the one hour presentation put on by the Coronavirus Task force on Friday.  It included Dr Fauci, Dr Brix, Dr Redfield and the Admiral in charge of testing.  They explained in excruciating detail how sampling works.  They acknowledged that testing is not where we need it but that we are getting there.  Then I turned on to another channel and watched a number of Governors pretty much demand testing of everyone.  I'll go with the pros...

George


----------



## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> I watched the one hour presentation put on by the Coronavirus Task force on Friday.  It included Dr Fauci, Dr Brix, Dr Redfield and the Admiral in charge of testing.  They discussed how sampling works.  Then I turned on to another channel and watched a number of Governors essentially demand testing of everyone.  I'll go with the pros...
> 
> George


I liked the Admiral today!


----------



## Pathways (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I liked the Admiral today!



Isn't it strange that we have such capable experts using every chart, graph, and statistic to back up their comments to educate us, but the networks choose not to even broadcast that part. 

And then show on their news 'tease' nutty comments made in response to someones even nuttier question. What a world!


----------



## Sea Six (Apr 17, 2020)

It may not be as deadly as some say, but it still kills.  Are you ready to go out and play with it, thinking you won't get hurt?


----------



## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

Sea Six said:


> It may not be as deadly as some say, but it still kills.  Are you ready to go out and play with it, thinking you won't get hurt?


I personally would have zero concerns about going back to my previous life... work, gym, the whole deal.


----------



## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

@Pathways ... “if it bleeds, it leads” when it comes to the news.


----------



## Sea Six (Apr 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I personally would have zero concerns about going back to my previous life... work, gym, the whole deal.


Yup, until that day when you start gasping for breath because IT GOT YOU!  Having ZERO concern is stupid.  Having just been released from the hospital, I say PAY ATTENTION.  Sure, the odds are slim, but it doesn't mean to let down all your guard, not just yet, not by a long shot.


----------



## Cornell (Apr 17, 2020)

Sea Six said:


> Yup, until that day when you start gasping for breath because IT GOT YOU!  Having ZERO concern is stupid.  Having just been released from the hospital, I say PAY ATTENTION.  Sure, the odds are slim, but it doesn't mean to let down all your guard, not just yet, not by a long shot.


No reason to shout. Given my age and that I have no co-morbidities, and all the data that I carefully follow, I feel pretty good about my situation in this. And I’m not letting down my guard. I’m not licking doorknobs. 

However, My fears regarding my job, my future, my daughter’s future, my mental health are BIG concerns to me.


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 17, 2020)

I saw that study, and others now coming online with the antibody testing. It is encouraging. To be fair I do think all the experts were saying the initial death rate would very likely be revised several times as more data is known-and they said that from the start. This is more data coming online. NO ONE said ever that NO ONE ever would die from it. We've got to get over the notion that there will be NO more deaths from it EVER again even with a vaccine. IF that ever happens it will be years/decades. Smallpox is the only thing I can think of that is eradicated.  And yeah-more still needs to be done to see how long immunity lasts etc. What these studies should give hope for is that subsequent waves will hopefully be less duration and less deaths as well. 


DaveNW said:


> if it could easily prove fatal to them if that happens


 Even the highest risk group is 15% at current numbers, the most vulnerable population is the population that will have the highest risk no matter the illness.


pedro47 said:


> Tell this story/article to those family members that have loss loved ones to the coronavirus and to those cruise passengers that were on Princess & Holland America cruise ships. Plus, share this opinions will all the infected coronavirus patients around the world.


 Strawman. Please stop. No one is saying those deaths aren't tragic. 


Rolltydr said:


> is that many of the projections were based on doing nothing.


 No actually most WERE based on some mitigation including social distancing and tracking and shut downs. It is why the Imperial college model came under such fire for it's way way way way overestimation. Upon which ALL this policy was first started. The IHME model continually moves its goal posts based on mitigation factors-but ONLY statewide, not counting what local is doing already. 


R.J.C. said:


> A lot of people die every single day from a lot of reasons. Are the ones who died from Covid-19 any more or less dead than others who died from whatever? People are acting as if we get rid of Covid-19 there won't be any more deaths in the world.


 And people are acting like we can't be "safe" until there are zero CV19 deaths anywhere in the world. This whole exercise was to slow and prevent as many as possible and keep our hospitals systems up and running and prepared (which is happening thankfully, and hopefully we DID prevent a whole bunch more deaths too), but not to get deaths to zero. 
This virus hit fast and hard and that is scary. Preparing for the worst and not getting it _is_ good news. Hospital systems were already strained from a bad flu season. Hopefully the peak is past.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 17, 2020)

Wel





T_R_Oglodyte said:


> 1. Personally, I don't think it's ever bad to collect more data and add it to your decision making.  (Of course that also means giving due consideration to the nature and quality of the information, not all information is created equally.)
> 
> 2. I think it's important to change one's mind or modify one's thinking in response to improved information.  Just speaking, hypothetically of course, that might lead someone to say. "OMG - I might have underestimated the threat posed by a virus."  And action is taken on the basis of the new information.  And then as additional information comes in, that person might trim the other direction because the new data says that things might not be as bad as the prior data indicated.  Or the added information might indicate the need to take extra action.  Or the extra information might just make the situation more muddied.
> 
> 3. One key item is to recognize that all of us, no matter how well trained we think we are or how smart we are, have confirmation biases.  The best thing that we can do is to know what our biases are and attempt to counter those biases by being more critical of information and opinions that align with our biases, and less dismissive of information and opinions that we don't agree with.  And when we clash, use that as an opportunity to hone our thinking by taking the effort to at least partly remove our bias filters.


Well said.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 17, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Isn't it strange that we have such capable experts using every chart, graph, and statistic to back up their comments to educate us, but the networks choose not to even broadcast that part.
> 
> And then show on their news 'tease' nutty comments made in response to someones even nuttier question. What a world!


Choose wisely and live long and prosper.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte (Apr 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Isn't it strange that we have such capable experts using every chart, graph, and statistic to back up their comments to educate us, but the networks choose not to even broadcast that part.
> 
> And then show on their news 'tease' nutty comments made in response to someones even nuttier question. What a world!


My "real life" story of dealing with television news. This was from about 40 years ago, when I was working in the drinking water supply program of the California Department of Health Services.  I was the lead technical person in the program related to issues of contamination of groundwater with agricultural chemicals, and the Department public affairs office had identified me as a designated background information contact for news agencies.  Which meant that while I wasn't authorized to speak for the department, I was designated to provide technical information and background to news agencies. 

We had been working for several months on a major issue, and the Sacramento Bureau office for one major television network affiliates in San Francisco started tracking the story.  I spent a significant amount of time over two to three weeks working with the person who was developing the story, as well as the Sacramento Bureau Chief who was providing oversight.  I gave them information and background, answered questions, and asked followup questions to satisfy myself that they had a good grasp of the information that was provided, what it meant, and being sure that all of their questions had been addressed.  I received much thanks from them, and they let me know they were going to run the story on their 5 pm Friday new show when it was ready to go.

So I made sure to turn in, and in one key part of the story they made a bald-faced lie.  I knew it was a lie because we had covered that ground, they had all of the backup information, we talked about the issue, etc. There was simply no doubt as to the facts of the situation. 

The following Monday I was back in Sacramento (my main office was in Berkeley), and I contacted the Bureau Chief to talk about the story.  I told him that what they broadcast wasn't true, and that they knew it wasn't true.

His response - "yeah - it wasn't true.  But the way we presented it made a better story."  This is from the mouth of the Sacramento Bureau Chief for the San Francisco network affiliate of one of the "Big Three" national networks (pre-Fox).  And the fact that they broadcast a story that they knew was factually incorrect was of no concern because the "story" was more important than the facts.

Since then I have been very cynical of anything that is produced by any media outlet of any persuasion.  They all exist to sell eyeballs, and accuracy and objectivity is secondary to viewership or clicks.


----------



## CPNY (Apr 18, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I couldn't get in to read the whole article but it looks like it's an opinion piece.  And how can someone says it's not as deadly as we thought?  How many deaths have there been so far?


We don’t know the infection rate. One thing we can’t change is Covid deaths. That is known, but infection rates may never be truly known. There could have been tens of millions possibly 100M infected without tests. The death count doesn’t change but we haven’t captured the full amount of positive cases.


----------



## davidvel (Apr 18, 2020)

Sea Six said:


> It may not be as deadly as some say, but it still kills.  Are you ready to go out and play with it, thinking you won't get hurt?


Don't people do this every day getting into cars, swimming, drinking, smoking, not wearing full ID protection when over 60?


----------



## b2bailey (Apr 18, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> I can't and won't argue whether Covid-19 is as severe as flu or not.  But I do know it's deadly. This article is about a singing group up this way.  At the time of this article, it was bad enough.  But at least one additional person who was there has also died.  And this is among people who had zero symptoms at the time of their rehearsal.  So I guess my point is that it only takes once for it to kill you.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I have read this story a few times and the piece that stands out for me is, the speed at which the people became ill. Story mentions 3, 4 and 5 days later that people had developed symptoms. Day 1, choir practice, nobody was showing any symptoms.


----------



## Chrispee (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> No reason to shout. Given my age and that I have no co-morbidities, and all the data that I carefully follow, I feel pretty good about my situation in this. And I’m not letting down my guard. I’m not licking doorknobs.
> 
> However, My fears regarding my job, my future, my daughter’s future, my mental health are BIG concerns to me.



Although I agree with you that the statistics are looking positive and it’s almost time to loosen restrictions, it needs to be remembered that most of us aren’t making these physical distancing sacrifices for ourselves. If this crisis hasn’t taught us lessons in protecting the more vulnerable and selflessness for the greater good of society then we have wasted an opportunity.


----------



## queenofthehive (Apr 18, 2020)

Chrispee said:


> Although I agree with you that the statistics are looking positive and it’s almost time to loosen restrictions, it needs to be remembered that most of us aren’t making these physical distancing sacrifices for ourselves. If this crisis hasn’t taught us lessons in protecting the more vulnerable and selflessness for the greater good of society then we have wasted an opportunity.


It appears to be Darwinism at its best.


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> No reason to shout. Given my age and that I have no co-morbidities, and all the data that I carefully follow, I feel pretty good about my situation in this. And I’m not letting down my guard. I’m not licking doorknobs.
> 
> However, My fears regarding my job, my future, my daughter’s future, my mental health are BIG concerns to me.



No doorknobs?? 

You are missing out!! 
The blue ones ( although hard to find ) are the best!!


----------



## R.J.C. (Apr 18, 2020)

Sea Six said:


> Yup, until that day when you start gasping for breath because IT GOT YOU!  Having ZERO concern is stupid.  Having just been released from the hospital, I say PAY ATTENTION.  Sure, the odds are slim, but it doesn't mean to let down all your guard, not just yet, not by a long shot.



BS. Just because you may be afraid doesn't make others who aren't afraid stupid. I too will have no worries about going back to doing things the way I used to once allowed. If it gets me, it gets me. Gotta go one day or another for whatever reason and I'm not going to live my life in fear of what may get me. You've got just a good a chance of a drunk driver taking you out as this virus.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

How deadly is the coronavirus? I’ve listed what I believe are a few key points from the article below the link. 



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/as-officials-plan-to-reopen-the-economy-a-key-unknown-remains-how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus/2020/04/17/0bd2f938-7e49-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html
		


“One telling point of comparison: One scholarly estimate finds that the 1918-1920 pandemic killed 218 out of every 100,000 people living in the world at that time. The current outbreak has been nowhere near that deadly to date, but the virus has been spreading for only a few months. In Spain, the death toll already stands at 41 out of 100,000 people; in Belgium the number is 45. In New York state, it is 63, and that number rises even higher if you consider the “probable” death toll in New York City.
So is the coronavirus as deadly? “This depends on how long this continues,” said Jason Oke, a health statistician at the University of Oxford.”

“A safe and effective vaccine could be at least a year away. That leaves “mitigation,” such as social distancing, the only currently available tool for fighting the pandemic. A newly published paper in the journal Science argues that some mitigation will probably be necessary until 2022.”

“The virus officially named SARS-CoV-2 is not only contagious and deadly, it’s also wildly unpredictable. It can kill a person or leave no mark at all. Most clinical cases are mild to moderate and people can recover at home.
Patients often see symptoms come in waves, and sometimes a patient who seems on the road to recovery will take a drastic turn for the worse. There is concern about long-term effects even among those who recover. Covid-19 is categorized as a respiratory disease, but doctors have found that it can affect many organs, including the heart, liver and kidneys.”

“Also critical is the nature, and robustness, of the national health system. For instance, Japan, where the current case fatality rate is 1.6 percent, and Singapore are reporting extremely high rates of hospitalization for coronavirus patients, at 80 percent and higher, figures that are unheard of in the United States. But this probably helps improve treatment and also reduces disease spread by isolating patients. The result is fewer deaths.”


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 18, 2020)

The problem I have with the antibody testing is a lack of double-blind testing of both known positive COVID-19 cases, and known other COVID (non 19) cases. Without that we really don't know how many "false positives" there are in the antibody testing. (Test shows COVID-19, but is actually spotting a much less virulent close "cousin" COVID virus.)

As to the lethality, here is a CDC chart of NYC "all causes" deaths for the last 20 years or so. It speaks for itself.


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

I think there is some sort of money grab also with this
If you listen or read various reports on deaths there are many that say the person died from like or from corona symptoms 
Not 100% from the virus but “ symptoms “
To me I read that as if I had a cough from a cold. Is that a corona symptom?

I’m betting it is if it blows up the hype or there’s a money grab

A person died recently that had been fighting cancer for 10 years and not doing well at all

Cause of death?  Corona


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

And another thing 

Many of the States complaining the loudest are the ones that are broke ass broke and need funding 
Sure they are more densely populated but then I would also think that a place like NYC would have gotten this mess so widely spread long before shutdowns. Therefore wouldn’t the entire city be infected and dead?


----------



## Cornell (Apr 18, 2020)

@R.J.C. You feel exactly as I do.  And just because I'm not scared doesn't mean that I'm not understanding or respecting what we have been asked in society to do.  I'm following all of the "rules".  But as soon as they say "go", I'm off an running back to living my life as I used to.  I'm just not someone who lives my life with fear and anxiety as an undercurrent.


----------



## missyrcrews (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> No reason to shout. Given my age and that I have no co-morbidities, and all the data that I carefully follow, I feel pretty good about my situation in this. And I’m not letting down my guard. I’m not licking doorknobs.
> 
> 
> However, My fears regarding my job, my future, my daughter’s future, my mental health are BIG concerns to me.



YES YES YES.

[Fixed quote to separate reply]


----------



## WinniWoman (Apr 18, 2020)

Bottom line is we many of us will get this virus no matter what. The end game- whether social distancing or using herd immunity- will be the same. The one and only reason we have been in lock down is not to overwhelm the hospitals.

Now that it has been shown that in many states the hospitals have not been overwhelmed and the numbers are low it is time for people to be free again. We cannot wait around for 2 years for a vaccine that MIGHT be developed. Remember they tried for a vaccine for the last SARS and never were able to develop one.


----------



## WinniWoman (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @R.J.C. You feel exactly as I do.  And just because I'm not scared doesn't mean that I'm not understanding or respecting what we have been asked in society to do.  I'm following all of the "rules".  But as soon as they say "go", I'm off an running back to living my life as I used to.  I'm just not someone who lives my life with fear and anxiety as an undercurrent.




Same with me and I am older. I am not just going to sit around and survive. I am going to live life and if I die earlier so be it.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I saw that study, and others now coming online with the antibody testing. It is encouraging. To be fair I do think all the experts were saying the initial death rate would very likely be revised several times as more data is known-and they said that from the start. This is more data coming online. NO ONE said ever that NO ONE ever would die from it. We've got to get over the notion that there will be NO more deaths from it EVER again even with a vaccine. IF that ever happens it will be years/decades. Smallpox is the only thing I can think of that is eradicated. And yeah-more still needs to be done to see how long immunity lasts etc. What these studies should give hope for is that subsequent waves will hopefully be less duration and less deaths as well.
> Even the highest risk group is 15% at current numbers, the most vulnerable population is the population that will have the highest risk no matter the illness.
> Strawman. Please stop. No one is saying those deaths aren't tragic.
> No actually most WERE based on some mitigation including social distancing and tracking and shut downs. It is why the Imperial college model came under such fire for it's way way way way overestimation. Upon which ALL this policy was first started. The IHME model continually moves its goal posts based on mitigation factors-but ONLY statewide, not counting what local is doing already.
> ...



I didn’t say most were based on doing nothing. I said many were based on doing nothing and that is an accurate statement.

Many - constituting or forming a large number; numerous

Most - the greatest quantity, amount, or degree; the utmost


----------



## geekette (Apr 18, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> I think there is some sort of money grab also with this
> If you listen or read various reports on deaths there are many that say the person died from like or from corona symptoms
> Not 100% from the virus but “ symptoms “
> To me I read that as if I had a cough from a cold. Is that a corona symptom?
> ...


Money grab?   How does cause of death create a money grab?  From whom?  What money?  Why?


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

geekette said:


> Money grab?   How does cause of death create a money grab?  From whom?  What money?  Why?



Watch and see
There’s always a money grab and stories already floating around that there will be one for this too

States will bitch how all the deaths devastated their financial situation and will expect the Government to pay up

I could be wrong. But highly doubt it


----------



## heathpack (Apr 18, 2020)

Well I read the full text of the PDF.  Not the abstract, the full text.

Remember this is an unreviewed early release and the final version of this paper may differ from the version we’re seeing now, once the reviewers comments are taken into account.  There’s even a possibility that the paper will be rejected for publication, if it’s thought to be seriously flawed.  That’s how the review process works.

If I were asked to review this paper (I wouldn’t be, because I have no expertise in this field- but I am regularly asked to review papers in my area of expertise, so I’m familiar with the process), here’s the major issues that I’d have and that I’d want the authors to more fully address:

1.  They state that they ran their test on 371 stored preCOVID blood samples, all of which should have tested negative.  Only 369 were negative, meaning there were 4 false positives.  That’s a 10.1% false positive rate.  (Realize this is a newly developed test and performance characteristics are unknown prior to use in this study.). If you extrapolate that to their 3300 person sample, there could 330 false positive test results in their study sample.  There were only 50 positive test results in their study population.  The number of false positives should be accounted for by their calculated test specificity- however I question the statistics they used to calculate test specificity.  They tested several groups with “known” COVID status, but most of those groups were small (~30 people) with no false positives.  In the only large sample, we see the 10.1% false negative rate.  I’d ask the authors to address and clarify this.

2.  It’s unclear to me if the new test being used in this study is testing for IgG or IgM or both.  I think it’s both, but this should be clearly stated by the authors.  It matters because IgG and IgM antibodies typically are present at different phases of infection, with IgG typically present later than IgM.  It would also be helpful for the authors to included in the discussion what is known about the kinetics of the immune responses of various immunoglobulin classes in COVID19 infection.  For example, IgM positivity is seen 3-60 days post infection and IgG positivity starting around days 7-14.  This information may be unknown but if it is, it would still be helpful to the readers understanding of the paper to include that information.  FYI these things don’t matter to the fundamental hypothesis of the paper but it is useful information that the authors have of important public health implications and could be easily addressed in a few sentences so IMO including the info is better than not including it.

3.  Sample bias.  Did the authors inadvertently recruit cases more likely to test positive than the general population?  The test subjects were recruited from FB and were not representative of the overall county demographics (more young white women, less Asians and Hispanics and elderly) and the authors attempted to correct for that statistically.  However their corrections may not have corrected adequately.  Keeping in mind that FB selects for circles of people with common interests, did information about this study’s availability get shared early and widely amongst a group that was more likely to test COVID positive- for example, groups of people who had been ill and couldn’t get tested otherwise?  Or was the study info shared widely amongst ER nurses,  hoping to learn if they were positive and didn’t need to worry as much if PPE was in short supply.  Additionally, the study was set up such that each participant could bring one child, and around 800 children were enrolled.  This means that of the 3300 people in the study, 1600 (800 children plus 800 parents) were from the same household.  This is half the study sample.  Since COVID19 is highly contagious, it would be expected that most positives would expose others in their household and if you test multiple people in a household, you would expect more positives than if you exclusively tested people from separate households if your sample was already biased towards including positives.  The authors also asked test subjects about previous COVID symptoms, so it would be nice if they included info as to the number of positive samples in the subset of study participants who had previous COVID symptoms vs the subset who didn’t report previous COVID symptoms.  Positive tests in the latter group are more relevant to the study’s conclusions (that there’s a high rate of inapparent infection) than positive tests in the former group.

Before people express exasperation that I’m not “being positive” or that I don’t want “good news,” neither of those things are revelvant to critically reading a scientific article.  The question is whether the authors’ data supports their conclusions.

I’d be quite interested to see the final peer reviewed version of this paper.  I think the authors chose a quick expedient way to recruit test subjects, which makes sense given the desire to get results out ASAP in the midst of a pandemic.  But in doing so, they may have introduced significant bias to their study.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

Harvard University study says testing needs to triple before U.S. can reopen.









						Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say (Published 2020)
					

As some governors look to ease coronavirus restrictions, public health experts say the country needs at least half a million tests per day to safely reopen.



					www.nytimes.com
				





“We need to switch from saying to people, ‘if you have mild symptoms, if you’re not feeling super sick, don’t come and stay at home,’ to ‘if you have any symptoms, you need to come in to get tested right away,’ ”


----------



## Cornell (Apr 18, 2020)

@heathpack I, too, noticed that about their recruitment sample.  It said that they weighted the data, and of course, we don't have the level of detail in their weight scheme.  Thank you for your comments -- super, super helpful & informative.


----------



## heathpack (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @heathpack I, too, noticed that about their recruitment sample.  It said that they weighted the data, and of course, we don't have the level of detail in their weight scheme.  Thank you for your comments -- super, super helpful & informative.



Well they have the data and should be able to report results for various subgroups:
Entire study population
Subgroup who report no previous COVID symptoms
Subgroup who report previous COVID symptoms with data from other household member excluded

The problem is the various subgroups are going to get too small, increasing the likelihood that the results do not achieve statistical significance


----------



## Talent312 (Apr 18, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Harvard University study says testing needs to triple before U.S. can reopen.



That ain't gonna happen, and peep have just about reached their limit of the shut-down.

Gov'nors will be under intense pressure to loosen the reigns. So, what's the reality?
The virus will stick around. Some people will get sick, some will die, and some won't.
.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 18, 2020)

@heathpack Thanks for your helpful response. Sample bias was the first thing that came to mind when I read this because who would volunteer for such a study unless you thought you may have been sick? We already know that people who wanted testing couldn't get it unless they were really sick. This may only confirm for that segment of the population.

Lastly, although I read the WSJ news pages regularly and find them well sourced, the WSJ opinion pages are full of cherry picking in support of confirmation bias or a political agenda so find many of those opinion pieces lacking credibility.

Bottom line: I hope this piece is true so we can get back to normal but too early to bet on it.


----------



## Bill4728 (Apr 18, 2020)

The big thing here is this is the "Antibody Test"  *IF* these tests (antibody tests) are accurate (and it is a big IF) and there is a much higher rate of infection / recovery in the general public. that means those many people are not likely to get sick OR spread the virus.  They no longer need to isolate themselves.   

Antibody tests for other diseases start to be positive about 1-4 weeks after you are infected. So if covid follows the same way, if you were sick a week ago the test will likely not show anything yet.  BUT in a few more weeks ??


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 18, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> I think there is some sort of money grab also with this
> If you listen or read various reports on deaths there are many that say the person died from like or from corona symptoms
> Not 100% from the virus but “ symptoms “
> To me I read that as if I had a cough from a cold. Is that a corona symptom?
> ...



The question remains, how can we make a final determination of a cause of death when in fact, there was never a complete and thorough autopsy done.

Though funeral directors are responsible for filing the certificate with the state, physicians are responsible for completing the medical portion of the certificate. Medical examiners or coroners are responsible for investigating and certifying the cause of any death that is unexpected, unexplained, or resulting from injury, poisoning, or a public health threat.


Just one study:

*Accuracy of cause of death determination without forensic autopsy examination.*

"Medical examiners and coroners commonly determine cause and manner of death without an autopsy examination. Some death certificates generated in this way may not state the correct cause and manner of death."

"The actual causes of death demonstrated a large breadth of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular disease processes, even though ischemic heart disease accounted for 62% of deaths. The presumed cause of death was completely wrong in 28% of cases. A nonnatural manner of death was present in 3% of cases. This study demonstrates that experienced forensic pathologists may generate erroneous death certificates for cases that are not autopsied."









						Accuracy of cause of death determination without forensic autopsy examination - PubMed
					

Medical examiners and coroners commonly determine cause and manner of death without an autopsy examination. Some death certificates generated in this way may not state the correct cause and manner of death. From the case files of the Department of Forensic Medicine in Sydney, Australia, the...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				





Point being, the rate of deaths attributed solely to Covid-19 may in fact, and more than likely is, simply wrong.


----------



## heathpack (Apr 18, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> @heathpack Thanks for your helpful response. Sample bias was the first thing that came to mind when I read this because who would volunteer for such a study unless you thought you may have been sick? We already know that people who wanted testing couldn't get it unless they were really sick. This may only confirm for that segment of the population.
> 
> Lastly, although I read the WSJ news pages regularly and find them well sourced, the WSJ opinion pages are full of cherry picking in support of confirmation bias or a political agenda so find many of those opinion pieces lacking in credibility.



I think there’s a real likelihood that participants in this study were more likely to have been exposed to coronavirus than the general population.  When I think about it for me personally, I would LOVE to learn I’d been exposed and have protective antibody.  It would make my life so much easier at work, I could do things more quickly and efficiently and also protect unexposed staff and colleagues from exposure.  I could go to the grocery store with impunity.  If my mother gets sick, I can fly to NY and help her out.

But I’ve had no symptoms that would make me wonder if I’d been exposed.

So.  If I could have participated in this study, would I have?  It depends.  If I had to drive 90 min round trip back and forth to Long Beach (say) to be tested and the testing was only available on a weekday that I’m working?  No.  If it was available on a weekend?  Maybe but probably not, it wouldn’t be worth my time investment for what seems to me like a small chance I’ve been infected and would get helpful info from the results. But if the test was available a mile from my house, and on a weekend day?  Yeah I’d do it.

Contrast that with what I would do if I thought I was likely exposed, based on previous or current COVID symptoms, known exposure to a COVID patient, working in a hospital etc- I’d for sure have participated in that study, because my being antibody positive feels likely to me and having the info would so so useful.

So my guess is that this study did *not* look at a random sample of Santa Clara county’s population, but instead they looked at 1. People who thought they might test positive and 2. People living physically close to sample collection locations.  Extrapolating those results too widely could result in erroneous conclusions as to seroprevalence in the county as a whole.


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Point being, the rate of deaths attributed solely to Covid-19 may in fact, and more than likely is, simply wrong



Well said.  Anytime there are taxpayer dollars being spent, any number that can be 'adjusted' to ultimately support more $$ coming will be adjusted in that favor.  Hence, our elected officials: low numbers so they can claim credit.  Everyone under that level, the higher the number, the more aid.


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## "Roger" (Apr 18, 2020)

Two further studies to try to determine how wide spread the infection is ...

NIH study

UC Berkeley study

To be honest, I am a bit surprised that both studies will involve a degree of self selection (people volunteer to be part of the study). I am sure that both the NIH and the UC Berkeley will try to control how self selection influences the results by having those actually admitted into the studies be as representative of the population as possible. (Ethnic groups will be represented in the proper proportions, smokers v. non-smokers, those living in more densely populated housing v. single family houses, etc.). The two problems are that you can only control for so many factors, and, there could be some unknown third factor that the investigators fail to consider. I don't want to suggest that these studies will be useless. They should be helpful. Conclusive? No.


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

Sea Six said:


> It may not be as deadly as some say, but it still kills.  Are you ready to go out and play with it, thinking you won't get hurt?





Cornell said:


> I personally would have zero concerns about going back to my previous life... work, gym, the whole deal.





Sea Six said:


> Yup, until that day when you start gasping for breath because IT GOT YOU!  Having ZERO concern is stupid.  Having just been released from the hospital, I say PAY ATTENTION.  Sure, the odds are slim, but it doesn't mean to let down all your guard, not just yet, not by a long shot.



It's not having zero concern about the virus itself.  It's weighing all the factors and reaching a well thought out decision.  At that point, acting on that should give you zero concern because you are ready to face whatever challenge may present itself.

My DW and I are in the higher risk group due to our age and careers.  We believed the experts early on that say eventually we all will be exposed.   Therefore, we never changed our basic habits,  Still eat out every other day.  (Required to take it home now). Frequently at the grocery and home improvement stores.  Still go on drives and visit places.  Family all came over for Easter - no pressure, their choice.  I just said the food will be on the table if they want to come.

Things I have changed:  Wash my hands more.  Mask worn at my work. We updated our will and I talked more the the person who would handle my affairs when gone.   Made it clear to all if a choice needs to be made, I would prefer no ventilator.  Again, based on the current published outcomes from those placed on a vent.  

I know the statistics say if/when I contract the virus I will probably never even know it, or mild symptoms.  But I wanted to plan for worst case basis, which then allows me to move forward with zero concerns.


----------



## caribbeanqueen (Apr 18, 2020)

I do not think being excited about positive information on less deaths than anticipated makes one uncaring about those who have passed. That is a pretty nasty statement.
I live in RI. Most who have died have been in nursing homes. We are told many deaths are Corona virus RELATED. That means they had another underlying disease and did not necessarily pass exclusively from Coronavirus but the states will get more aid depending on the amount of deaths due to the virus because it shows they need more supplies to help keep up with the deaths. No doubt about it.  It is a money maker for the states.

On another note I heard a doctor on one of the news shows say whatever amount of people are testing positive, you can at least triple that amount of people who have the antibodies. I think once testing is completed the numbers of those who have had it will be staggering. JMO


----------



## CPNY (Apr 18, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Bottom line is we many of us will get this virus no matter what. The end game- whether social distancing or using herd immunity- will be the same. The one and only reason we have been in lock down is not to overwhelm the hospitals.
> 
> Now that it has been shown that in many states the hospitals have not been overwhelmed and the numbers are low it is time for people to be free again. We cannot wait around for 2 years for a vaccine that MIGHT be developed. Remember they tried for a vaccine for the last SARS (H1N1) and never were able to develop one.


They actually stopped research on developing it because SARS never really made it out of China. Had they continued with the research to find it, we may have been in a much different situation than we are now.


----------



## caribbeanqueen (Apr 18, 2020)

Roger I emailed the NIH study hoping my husband and I could be participants in it. We were both very sick after coming off a Princess Cruise late December. The quicker we can get the antibody testing done the quicker we can get people back to work. Those who do not have the antibodies and have compromised immune systems can still self isolate till the vaccine is ready or the virus leaves.


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## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> We need to switch from saying to people, ‘if you have mild symptoms, if you’re not feeling super sick, don’t come and stay at home,’ to ‘if you have any symptoms, you need to come in to get tested right away,’ ”



That's a start but won't help a lot.  A facility close me had multiple deaths.  The experts wanted to move a group of 25 who had been separated for weeks with no symptoms to another facility.   The local people protested to stop the move.  Finally, the 'experts' thought if they tested the 25 then they might stop the protests so they could do what they wanted.  That is until 21 of the 25 tested positive. None of the group had shown ANY symptoms.  They had been individually isolated, temp checked everyday, and so on.  

And given how easy this spreads, everyone would need to be tested frequently on an ongoing basis.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> That's a start but won't help a lot. A facility close me had multiple deaths. The experts wanted to move a group of 25 who had been separated for weeks with no symptoms to another facility. The local people protested to stop the move. Finally, the 'experts' thought if they tested the 25 then they might stop the protests so they could do what they wanted. That is until 21 of the 25 tested positive. None of the group had shown ANY symptoms. They had been individually isolated, temp checked everyday, and so on.
> 
> And given how easy this spreads, everyone would need to be tested frequently on an ongoing basis.



I think their point was that is where we need to be with testing before we even start to open back up. I agree with you about the ongoing needs even after we reach that point. This is just one study I found interesting. I’m not saying it’s 100% right or wrong, just that it is a study from Harvard that I think has some validity.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 18, 2020)

One thing that I have not heard in the news:

If someone tests positive for Covid-19 with no symptoms, does that mean that they are in the early stages and will become sick a week later? or are these people infected and will recover never showing symptoms?


----------



## Cornell (Apr 18, 2020)

caribbeanqueen said:


> I do not think being excited about positive information on less deaths than anticipated makes one uncaring about those who have passed. That is a pretty nasty statement.
> I live in RI. Most who have died have been in nursing homes. We are told many deaths are Corona virus RELATED. That means they had another underlying disease and did not necessarily pass exclusively from Coronavirus but the states will get more aid depending on the amount of deaths due to the virus because it shows they need more supplies to help keep up with the deaths. No doubt about it.  It is a money maker for the states.
> 
> On another note I heard a doctor on one of the news shows say whatever amount of people are testing positive, you can at least triple that amount of people who have the antibodies. I think once testing is completed the numbers of those who have had it will be staggering. JMO


Yeah, I get a little tired of the response "You obviously don't care about life" or "You are so selfish in your thinking" when I express my opinion that I'm not panicked about this.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 18, 2020)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> My "real life" story of dealing with television news. This was from about 40 years ago, when I was working in the drinking water supply program of the California Department of Health Services.  I was the lead technical person in the program related to issues of contamination of groundwater with agricultural chemicals, and the Department public affairs office had identified me as a designated background information contact for news agencies.  Which meant that while I wasn't authorized to speak for the department, I was designated to provide technical information and background to news agencies.
> 
> We had been working for several months on a major issue, and the Sacramento Bureau office for one major television network affiliates in San Francisco started tracking the story.  I spent a significant amount of time over two to three weeks working with the person who was developing the story, as well as the Sacramento Bureau Chief who was providing oversight.  I gave them information and background, answered questions, and asked followup questions to satisfy myself that they had a good grasp of the information that was provided, what it meant, and being sure that all of their questions had been addressed.  I received much thanks from them, and they let me know they were going to run the story on their 5 pm Friday new show when it was ready to go.
> 
> ...


True Dat.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 18, 2020)

R.J.C. said:


> BS. Just because you may be afraid doesn't make others who aren't afraid stupid. I too will have no worries about going back to doing things the way I used to once allowed. If it gets me, it gets me. Gotta go one day or another for whatever reason and I'm not going to live my life in fear of what may get me. You've got just a good a chance of a drunk driver taking you out as this virus.


Or a very large Deer, there everywhere when I drive home every night at 0100 am. Yikes !!!


----------



## DaveNV (Apr 18, 2020)

I wanted to point out that comparing this pandemic to the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 is an uneven mix, at best.  That pandemic ran its course over three years, with waves of infection coming and going.  We have the full scope of how that pandemic played out.  The Covid-19 pandemic has only been on the radar for a few months.  I think it's too soon to say whether this one is as bad as that one was.  Also, we are doing things differently this time around (so far) to encourage people to try and avoid contagion.  In 1918, a lot of people were infected before they knew what was going on, and things spread faster due to the differences in how it was handled.  I don't think the total effect of current infections is known yet.  With this current virus, even though it all started in one place, it spread worldwide within just a few months.  (I think I read recently where it is now in 181 countries around the world.)

In my state, the first to have diagnosed infections in the USA, and one of the first to go into lockdown, we are still seeing new infections every day.  We now have diagnosed cases in all but one county here.  The number of cases keeps climbing, likely because there is more widespread testing.  No telling how many have or had it, without being tested.  But even without knowing how many actual cases there are, the fatality rate (for our population) is pretty staggering.  We saw our first diagnosed case in January.  The first fatality was near the end of February.  As of March 13, we'd had 37 fatalities.  As of April 16, it had climbed to 603.  That's an increase of nearly 1600% in just 34 days. If the speed of infection was truly known, if social distancing was truly working, and if people were truly staying isolated, those numbers shouldn't be increasing like that.  I'd expect after a few weeks the new case numbers should be pretty flat.  But they're not.  (Somebody educate me here - am I missing something?)

So while I'm all for life getting back to normal ASAP, I think it's foolish to move too quickly on this.  The Florida Governor who reopened the beach yesterday is courting disaster, I think.  

Dave


----------



## DaveNV (Apr 18, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> I think there is some sort of money grab also with this
> If you listen or read various reports on deaths there are many that say the person died from like or from corona symptoms
> Not 100% from the virus but “ symptoms “
> To me I read that as if I had a cough from a cold. Is that a corona symptom?
> ...




Just like with HIV, it isn't the virus that kills you. It's the things the virus causes (like pneumonia) that will do it.  In your example, if the cancer patient hadn't contracted Covid-19, they might still be alive. So yes, in this case, it wasn't cancer that killed them, it was Covid-19.

Dave


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 18, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> Just like with HIV, it isn't the virus that kills you. It's the things the virus causes (like pneumonia) that will do it.  In your example, if the cancer patient hadn't contracted Covid-19, they might still be alive. So yes, in this case, it wasn't cancer that killed them, it was Covid-19.
> 
> Dave



And just who is to say that?


----------



## PrairieGirl (Apr 18, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Remember they tried for a vaccine for the last SARS (H1N1) and never were able to develop one.



A small point of correction.  In your post it appears that you believe that the SARS virus and H1N1 (an influenza virus) are the same thing.  I do not think that is correct and believe that they are each a different virus.  And while there may be no vaccine for the SARS virus that hit in 2003 (and it probably has some numbers associated with it), there is a most certainly a vaccine for the H1N1 influenza virus.  I know, because I have had it.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 18, 2020)

Today "The Wall Street Journal, VW to Reopen Europe Plants With List of New Safety Rules". " Berlin--Volkswagen AG will restart car plants across Europe next week, offering a pandemic-era blueprint for other global manufactures that will alter workers daily lives and, at least temporarily, relegate productivity to the back seat." Finally some well thought out best safety practices that balance workers protection and the need to provide for German workers /family's much needed paydays to feed & pay the rent and provide productive dignity and hope. I sure hope governor D- Whitwere in MI  and The Big 3 Detroit automakers are considering this when the Data in MI supports reopening our State economy again. Hope springs eternal.


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## DaveNV (Apr 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> And just who is to say that?



As I interpreted it, the doctor said it. Extrapolating here: The patient had cancer and was (presumably) being treated for it.  The patient contracted Covid-19, and dies.  If they hadn't contracted it, they might still be alive.  But they're not.  If the doctor said cause of death was Covid-19, there was probably good reason. 

Dave


----------



## queenofthehive (Apr 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> And just who is to say that?


Influenza 101


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> But even without knowing how many actual cases there are, the fatality rate (for our population) is pretty staggering. We saw our first diagnosed case in January. The first fatality was near the end of February. As of March 13, we'd had 37 fatalities. As of April 16, it had climbed to 603. That's an increase of nearly 1600% in just 34 days. If the speed of infection was truly known, if social distancing was truly working, and if people were truly staying isolated, those numbers shouldn't be increasing like that. I'd expect after a few weeks the new case numbers should be pretty flat. But they're not. (Somebody educate me here - am I missing something?)
> 
> So while I'm all for life getting back to normal ASAP, I think it's foolish to move too quickly on this. The Florida Governor who reopened the beach yesterday is courting disaster, I think.



I assume you mean the increase in fatalities, not the 'fatality rate'?  The statistical fatality rate (% of pop with the virus dying) is decreasing quickly everywhere as they begin more testing and see the vast numbers who have actually had it but never knew it. 

I agree completely with you about the whole 'social distancing thing' not working. This virus is too easily spread and lives too long on pretty much all surfaces to reduce this to nothing.

That is why I say open things up now. ( location dependent- not everywhere)   As long as our health care system is not overwhelmed, let's go!.  Those who feel too at risk to be out, they can continue the isolation, certainly no one is required to be out.  

The millions who in a few weeks will be struggling for basic food and shelter will not care who is at risk.  And when your kids are hungry and the family is desperate, I doubt those folks will be concerned about 'those at risk' or those who have passed on.

I know two states with over $1B in reserves (and were adding to the reserve fund every month) who have already stated they will blow through those reserves by August.  After that (since they MUST balance their budget), financial cuts to ALL levels of government (including education) will be hard and fast.  This economy MUST open up now to try and mitigate these issues, or there may be unrest we don't want to envision.


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## WVBaker (Apr 18, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> As I interpreted it, the doctor said it. Extrapolating here: The patient had cancer and was (presumably) being treated for it.  The patient contracted Covid-19, and dies.  If they hadn't contracted it, they might still be alive.  But they're not.  If the doctor said cause of death was Covid-19, there was probably good reason.
> 
> Dave


Perhaps.


----------



## WinniWoman (Apr 18, 2020)

PrairieGirl said:


> A small point of correction.  In your post it appears that you believe that the SARS virus and H1N1 (an influenza virus) are the same thing.  I do not think that is correct and believe that they are each a different virus.  And while there may be no vaccine for the SARS virus that hit in 2003 (and it probably has some numbers associated with it), there is a most certainly a vaccine for the H1N1 influenza virus.  I know, because I have had it.




My error. I meant the last SARS and I got it confused with H1N1. Correcting.


----------



## DaveNV (Apr 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> I assume you mean the increase in fatalities, not the 'fatality rate'?  The statistical fatality rate (% of pop with the virus dying) is decreasing quickly everywhere as they begin more testing and see the vast numbers who have actually had it but never knew it.



You're correct.  My words were my clumsy way of trying to express my thought. I was looking only at the huge increase in the number of fatalities here.  The thing about the infection rates that I don't understand is that if isolation was truly flattening the curve, after a few weeks the number should be leveling out.  Maybe they are, and I just don't know how to read them? 

I think that also speaks to part of the frustration I see going on with everyone.  Everywhere I turn there is a different statistic, a different "expert," and a different way to view the situation.  People are getting sick, and some are dying.  That I fully understand.  People are going broke, and the situation is getting to a critical point for them.  I fully understand that, too.  But then I see ridiculous infighting among politicians over how resources should be used, instead of everyone pulling together to fight this.  Where is the average person supposed to turn for resolution?  It seems there is a swirling whirlpool of information, and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere but around in circles.  Being safe is important, but there comes a point where people have to be able to live.

I just want to wake up from this.

Dave


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 18, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> You're correct.  My words were my clumsy way of trying to express my thought. I was looking only at the huge increase in the number of fatalities here.  The thing about the infection rates that I don't understand is that if isolation was truly flattening the curve, after a few weeks the number should be leveling out.  Maybe they are, and I just don't know how to read them?
> 
> I think that also speaks to part of the frustration I see going on with everyone.  Everywhere I turn there is a different statistic, a different "expert," and a different way to view the situation.  People are getting sick, and some are dying.  That I fully understand.  People are going broke, and the situation is getting to a critical point for them.  I fully understand that, too.  But then I see ridiculous infighting among politicians over how resources should be used, instead of everyone pulling together to fight this.  Where is the average person supposed to turn for resolution?  It seems there is a swirling whirlpool of information, and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere but around in circles.  Being safe is important, but there comes a point where people have to be able to live.
> 
> ...



For every expert there is an equal and opposite expert.


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> The thing about the infection rates that I don't understand is that if isolation was truly flattening the curve, after a few weeks the number should be leveling out. Maybe they are, and I just don't know how to read them?



I'm not the expert, but tell me if this makes sense. 

In the beginning, all we really knew were the vents and the deaths. those were hard numbers.  Now as the testing (both kinds - infected/post) is ramping up we have a different set of numbers.  Those numbers are increasing exponentially not specifically B/C of the virus increasing, but simply B/C we now have real testing/numbers we didn't have before.  Therefore, the numbers people are still using the actual deaths as a yard stick to say things are better.  The deaths are leveling off or decreasing even as the number of infected are increasing.  IOW, the number of newly infected each week is probably leveling off or decreasing but B/C of the testing the numbers released show a huge increase.


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## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

And don't forget there is an established lag time of about two weeks.  So if the deaths are leveling off or decreasing, the other numbers should actually be going down.

Now once a treatment that works is introduced, all the numbers won't add up right again


----------



## davidvel (Apr 18, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> I wanted to point out that comparing this pandemic to the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 is an uneven mix, at best.  That pandemic ran its course over three years, with waves of infection coming and going.  We have the full scope of how that pandemic played out.  The Covid-19 pandemic has only been on the radar for a few months.  I think it's too soon to say whether this one is as bad as that one was.  Also, we are doing things differently this time around (so far) to encourage people to try and avoid contagion.  In 1918, a lot of people were infected before they knew what was going on, and things spread faster due to the differences in how it was handled.  I don't think the total effect of current infections is known yet.  With this current virus, even though it all started in one place, it spread worldwide within just a few months.  (I think I read recently where it is now in 181 countries around the world.)
> 
> In my state, the first to have diagnosed infections in the USA, and one of the first to go into lockdown, we are still seeing new infections every day.  We now have diagnosed cases in all but one county here.  The number of cases keeps climbing, likely because there is more widespread testing.  No telling how many have or had it, without being tested.  But even without knowing how many actual cases there are, the fatality rate (for our population) is pretty staggering.  We saw our first diagnosed case in January.  The first fatality was near the end of February.  As of March 13, we'd had 37 fatalities.  As of April 16, it had climbed to 603.  That's an increase of nearly 1600% in just 34 days. If the speed of infection was truly known, if social distancing was truly working, and if people were truly staying isolated, those numbers shouldn't be increasing like that.  I'd expect after a few weeks the new case numbers should be pretty flat.  But they're not.  (Somebody educate me here - am I missing something?)
> 
> ...


They also didn't have modern medicine, including ICUs and ventilators back then. Any comparison is meaningless.


----------



## davidvel (Apr 18, 2020)

PrairieGirl said:


> A small point of correction.  In your post it appears that you believe that the SARS virus and H1N1 (an influenza virus) are the same thing.  I do not think that is correct and believe that they are each a different virus.  And while there may be no vaccine for the SARS virus that hit in 2003 (and it probably has some numbers associated with it), there is a most certainly a vaccine for the H1N1 influenza virus.  I know, because I have had it.


Correct. SARS is a coronavirus and h1n1 is an influenza virus.


----------



## geekette (Apr 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> I'm not the expert, but tell me if this makes sense.
> 
> In the beginning, all we really knew were the vents and the deaths. those were hard numbers.  Now as the testing (both kinds - infected/post) is ramping up we have a different set of numbers.  Those numbers are increasing exponentially not specifically B/C of the virus increasing, but simply B/C we now have real testing/numbers we didn't have before.  Therefore, the numbers people are still using the actual deaths as a yard stick to say things are better.  The deaths are leveling off or decreasing even as the number of infected are increasing.  IOW, the number of newly infected each week is probably leveling off or decreasing but B/C of the testing the numbers released show a huge increase.


Yes.   Number of cases is rather meaningless because we will never know the true number of cases, yet it will increase as more testing occurs.  

Here, we are still only testing first responders and other essential workers.  If your maybe-case is mild, you may never get tested.  It's when people get worse and show up at the hospital that they may or may not get tested.

Hospitalizations, ventilations, deaths, those are the things that are more reliable.  When people die in private homes or other private facilities, those deaths might not get reported.  Never make it to hospitalization, ventilation, but should eventually make death statistic.   So, what is attributed to being a COVIN-19 death is a meaningful decision.  Anyone that was stable before it, I'd say died because of it.   If I were already experiencing infection after a surgery, then got this infection to push me over the edge, well, I'm not the one to make the call.  I would leave it to the ME.  

More data is always better.   Always.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 18, 2020)

This is not a randomized, double blinded study, but interesting none the less. . .









						3 French Doctors Are Using Azithromycin With Zinc to Save Lives - Gilmore Health News
					

Three French doctors tested a combination of azithromycin and zinc to treat hundreds of patients infected with the coronavirus.




					www.gilmorehealth.com
				




(Personal note - I am taking zinc supplement, D3 @ 1000 ISP units, (among other vitamins) as a prophylactic dose. . .)


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## Cornell (Apr 18, 2020)

@Pathways I’m witnessing an underground economy developing. People need money! I know of hairdressers, nail techs, and gym operators that are conducting business (and risking their licenses ) to try to stay alive. This phenomenon is just going to increase .


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## DaveNV (Apr 18, 2020)

davidvel said:


> They also didn't have modern medicine, including ICUs and ventilators back then. Any comparison is meaningless.



Nor did they have immediate global communication like today.  Different cities did things that affected other areas of the country within days.  I read about soldiers returning from Europe being put on ships close together, then loaded onto trains to travel all over the place. The explosive infection rates followed.  So in celebrating the end of WWI they actually brought the pandemic home with them.

Dave


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## geoand (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Full disclosure... I did not go to Cornell.
> It’s the name of the street I grew up on.


That made me laugh. Just to make sure my words are interpreted correctly YOU ARE A-OK with me


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Apr 18, 2020)

I haven't taken the time to read every comment, so maybe what I write has already been posted.  While not able to quote a study, I have read in a number of places that there are many deaths quite possibly caused by Covid 19, but not identified as such.  I think it will be years before the whole period can be fully explained, ie it was worse or it was better than thought at the time.
Now what we have are the statistics available.  According to the tabulation site www.worldometer.info  there have been 745,335 cases resolved worldwide.  587,666 recovered, 157,669 deaths.  So 79% recovered 21% death.   I have been checking that website daily since I saw someone link the site here a few weeks ago.  That 79/21% rate has been consistent.  

If the people who the study referenced could have been tested and included then the rate would drop.  But do we know that the study was sufficient, was it replicated anywhere?  Those are questions that need to be answered.  

Also I don't think unsupported good news is helpful, rather I like to see good news supported by facts.  There are appearances of good news, individual anecdotal stories with both good and bad news.  until then we need to stay the course and not grasp every straw that pops up.


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## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @Pathways I’m witnessing an underground economy developing. People need money! I know of hairdressers, nail techs, and gym operators that are conducting business (and risking their licenses ) to try to stay alive. This phenomenon is just going to increase .



That's funny, My wife just mentioned that to me this week.  She referenced the movie 'Shampoo' (I know, wayyyy before your time) with Warren Beatty running around with his hair dryer doing peoples hair in their homes.  (and other things, as I recall)


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 18, 2020)

The antibody/herd immunity argument which is the underlying premise of the OPs article, is premature because it is not proven that you cannot become reinfected and/or this lies dormant in your system and will re-emerge. We simply don't know enough about this horrible disease.









						South Korea’s New Coronavirus Twist: Recovered Patients Test Positive Again
					

More than 160 South Koreans have tested positive a second time for the coronavirus, a development that suggests the disease may have a longer shelf life than expected.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## DaveNV (Apr 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> For every expert there is an equal and opposite expert.



Which was precisely my point.

Dave


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

geoand said:


> That made me laugh. Just to make sure my words are interpreted correctly YOU ARE A-OK with me



Now we just need her 1st grade teachers name and first car and we can get her passwords changed


----------



## DaveNV (Apr 18, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> The antibody/herd immunity argument is premature because it is not proven that you cannot become reinfected and/or this lies dormant in your system and will re-emerge. We simply don't know enough about this horrible disease.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That was a question I brought up awhile ago.  My understanding is there are different mutations of this virus.  What is to say if you get it once that you couldn't get it again?  Just as the flu virus is different from year to year, and the flu vaccine is a best-guess from year to year, perhaps Covid-19 will follow the same path?

Dave


----------



## Sugarcubesea (Apr 18, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Working right now, but I will toast you tomorrow  on my day off be safe. Health and blessings to you and your family.



Don’t work too hard.  We had to furlough a group of our hourly employees on Friday.  We told them we will pay for all of their benefits till we bring them back.  So I’m feeling very sad that we had to furlough them but we have no raw materials left and we’ve filled our plant and warehouse fully with the parts they had been making.  All of our customers have pushed their orders to us out 160 days.  So all of our business has dropped to zero.   I’m thankful that I’m still employed and the President (who I report to) said the BOD approved for me to get a small bonus since I’ve been working around the clock securing financing and loans.  I’m so very thankful that I work for a company that is trying to ensure we come out of this mess still standing.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @Pathways I’m witnessing an underground economy developing. People need money! I know of hairdressers, nail techs, and gym operators that are conducting business (and risking their licenses ) to try to stay alive. This phenomenon is just going to increase .



People are starting to protest against the SIP/SAH and shut downs. I read about one rally where the government response was “protesting is not an essential activity.” Very funny. LOL I am seeing more and more complaints about when will this end. I think in the first month, people were patient and it was all about staying home to save lives. Now going into month 2, people are exhausted and seeing the many ramifications on their own Iives and those of their children and family members. I keep hearing we could be living under some type of SIP/SAH order until there is a vaccine. That is mind boggling.

P.S. For anyone interested in the government’s response that protesting is a non-essential activity, here is an article about what happened in Raleigh. I find this extremely humorous and scary too.









						UPDATED: 'Protesting is a non-essential activity': Raleigh police face backlash for dispersing protesters
					

The Raleigh Police Department in North Carolina is facing blowback after categorizing protesting as a "non-essential activity."




					www.washingtonexaminer.com


----------



## Sugarcubesea (Apr 18, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> Some of us are fans of yours.  Well, me anyway.  I find your opinions smart, spot-on, and well-considered.
> 
> Dave



I’m a fan of Cornell as well.


----------



## Cornell (Apr 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> People are starting to protest against the SIP/SAH and shut downs. I read about one rally where the government response was “protesting is not an essential activity.” Very funny. LOL I am seeing more and more complaints about when will this end. I think in the first month, people were patient and it was all about staying home to save lives. Now going into month 2, people are exhausted and seeing the many ramifications on their own Iives and those of their children and family members. I keep hearing we could be living under some type of SIP/SAH order until there is a vaccine. That is mind boggling.


People waiting for a vaccine  clearly have some other income stream


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> People are starting to protest against the SIP/SAH and shut downs. I read about one rally where the government response was “protesting is not an essential activity.” Very funny. LOL I am seeing more and more complaints about when will this end. I think in the first month, people were patient and it was all about staying home to save lives. Now going into month 2, people are exhausted and seeing the many ramifications on their own Iives and those of their children and family members. I keep hearing we could be living under some type of SIP/SAH order until there is a vaccine. That is mind boggling.



Agree that we cannot keep this going for more than a few months. We needed testing and PPE for more than hospital workers NOW so we can open up the economy granularly.

Why can't the Feds get more tests and PPE delivered? It has been two months. Perhaps we should put the Army Corps of Engineers and National Guard in charge of this process because they have their sh*t together and get results. Just look at how quickly they built those field hospitals. Very impressive.


----------



## VacationForever (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> People waiting for a virus clearly have some other income stream


I think you have nailed it.  When I look at the Phase 1/2/3 re-opening guidance, my husband and I will remain SIP because 1) We are retired and don't need work income 2) We are in the high risk category.  If we still have a business to run we will look at how to re-open the business and get the young and healthy back to work while the folks who are vulnerable continue to SIP.  Re-opening and SIP are not mutually exclusive.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I'm listening to POTUS's daily presser now.  They are discussing phase 1 antibody testing.  As far as I'm concerned this is a big YESSSSSS!!!!!!!!



With the exception of hearing from the scientists, I find this a big waste of time. We need results - not blaming others and excuses.  Results are all that matter right now.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 18, 2020)

Sugarcubesea said:


> Don’t work too hard.  We had to furlough a group of our hourly employees on Friday.  We told them we will pay for all of their benefits till we bring them back.  So I’m feeling very sad that we had to furlough them but we have no raw materials left and we’ve filled our plant and warehouse fully with the parts they had been making.  All of our customers have pushed their orders to us out 160 days.  So all of our business has dropped to zero.   I’m thankful that I’m still employed and the President (who I report to) said the BOD approved for me to get a small bonus since I’ve been working around the clock securing financing and loans.  I’m so very thankful that I work for a company that is trying to ensure we come out of this mess still standing.


Thank you for your vital service to America. Stay healthy and safe. AL


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> People waiting for a vaccine  clearly have some other income stream



Not even just income

My job has not been affected therefore other than places being  closed my life has not changed
But it’s the closed part that’s the suckie part
Unless someone is a total introvert who in their right mind would want to stare out their windows like animals?


----------



## Panina (Apr 18, 2020)

They are working on a vaccine.
There is no certainty that it will be successful.

Many Treatments are being tested.  So far none works for all nor proven to work.

There is no way to know how many people would have died if mitigation was not done.  We will never know.  As we open up the economy we will know if numbers go up.

Testing everyone for antibodies before opening up the economy cannot be done.  The resources needed are not in place anywhere.  There is also no certainty that if you have the antibodies you will not get it again.

Deadly as we thought?  We still don’t really know. Everything is speculation, opinion, data projections, etc.

I would love to be able to wait this out.  Logically that cannot happen.  We need to adjust the best we can and move forward as best we can, as safe as we can.  

No easy answers because we  have many questions still with no scientific answers.


----------



## capjak (Apr 18, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> With the exception of hearing from the scientists, I find this a big waste of time. We need results - not blaming others and excuses.  Results are all that matter right now.


This is what has been delivered thus far:  39.4 Million N95 Masks, 431 million hospital gloves, 10.2 million hospital Gowns, 57 million surgical masks and 500 million produced by end of April and 100 Million distributed, 10,000 ventilators to NY and others distributed to other hot spots, 3,7 million tests.  Additional ventilators manufactured (NY delivering Federal ventilators to other states as they do not need them now...thank god).   Forgot the ships delivered to each coast as well as in several cities the millitary has built hospital beds and 1,000 or so military healthcare workers to NY to help.


----------



## vacationtime1 (Apr 18, 2020)

capjak said:


> This is what has been delivered thus far:  39.4 Million N95 Masks, 431 million hospital gloves, 10.2 million hospital Gowns, 57 million surgical masks and 500 million produced by end of April and 100 Million distributed, 10,000 ventilators to NY and others distributed to other hot spots*, 3,7 million tests.*  Additional ventilators manufactured (NY delivering Federal ventilators to other states as they do not need them now...thank god).   Forgot the ships delivered to each coast as well as in several cities the millitary has built hospital beds and 1,000 or so military healthcare workers to NY to help.



Enough to test about 1% of all Americans.  A start, but we have a long way to go before we can safely re-open.


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Why can't the Feds get more tests and PPE delivered?





CalGalTraveler said:


> With the exception of hearing from the scientists, a big waste of time.



Get the answers to the first by listening to the second.  

There are plenty of tests. That was made clear at the Friday presser.  What I have been saying for some time.  Most labs have PLENTY of capacity for more tests.  In my area, anyone can get a test, just needs the Dr's order, and there still are no lines waiting for it. Only issue in some areas is the courier to take it to a lab that has the capacity.  Also, testing swabs are hard to get in some places.  Again, there are plenty, just get them to the areas which are short.  


The feds do NOTHING but mess up the supply chain.  There are only so many items that can come off an assembly line running 24/7.  Hospitals have them on order themselves through their suppliers and also with their state.  Then the FEDS mess it up by over-riding the schedule after some whiny person cries on TV saying 'please help us' and then saying 'you can't tell us what to do'.

Almost all hospitals have gone to single sources for their supplies.  (Their choice, coming back to bite them)

No shortage of PPE's anywhere that I know of in the states surrounding me.  Of course, they are on TV whining that they don't have enough, but when you drill down, you find they are purposefully conserving B/C they may only have three days worth left. The supply chain will get them there on time, if some nut at a higher level doesn't hijack the truck and send them days later to some place they have determined needs them more.  (Again, usually not based on real need, just based on TV complaining)


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

vacationtime1 said:


> We have a long way to go before we can safely re-open



The economy was not closed B/C it wasn't safe.  It was closed to 'flatten the curve' and keep our healthcare from being overwhelmed.  

Mission accomplished.  Now open things up.  All those who feel unsafe can self isolate. 

The states are moving quickly with the plans to open, because I think they know the jails can't hold all the American's who value their freedom, and will soon show it en masse.


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 18, 2020)

Protesters in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, Wyoming, New York and Virginia.

This is just the beginning.


----------



## capjak (Apr 18, 2020)

vacationtime1 said:


> Enough to test about 1% of all Americans.  A start, but we have a long way to go before we can safely re-open.


Depends on the area of the US in NY 29,000 tests per million population, over the entire US 11,000 per million (3,700,000) which is more than S.Korea that has been successful (10,500 per million people, 546,000 total tests) and Germany "opening up" on Monday (1,700,000 tests, 20,500 per million people).

Testing capacity is there to mitigate in most states but I do not have the same confidence about tracking and tracing everyone in the US.  They did it in some countries like S.Korea which is how they were successful.


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

People are not following the rules anyway 

Drive by any Walmart. Packed
Home Depot. Packed

Person taking your money with gloves and a face filter touches everything. Including the face mask and then hands you your change

How is this social distancing?


----------



## Sugarcubesea (Apr 18, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Thank you for your vital service to America. Stay healthy and safe. AL


I really need to be thanking you. As an essential worker your on the front lines.  Thank You so much.  Me I’m just a gal working in the automotive sector for the past 33 years.  I’m so thankful as I started my career at Ford when I graduated college (worst company I’ve ever worked for) and now after working for most of the big boys in the auto industry, I’m now working for the best company I’ve ever worked for.  They pay for 89% of the premiums of our benefits.  They treat me the best I’ve ever been treated as a female director in the automotive industry.  I’m hoping like hell this company survives and I can work here till I retire.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 18, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> People are not following the rules anyway
> 
> Drive by any Walmart. Packed
> Home Depot. Packed
> ...



This shows that people will do what they are allowed to do. All this talk about staying home to save lives feels self congratulatory to me. As soon as they find a loophole, people do it. However, I do think that most people are following the spirit of the SIP/SAH.


----------



## Cornell (Apr 18, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> People are not following the rules anyway
> 
> Drive by any Walmart. Packed
> Home Depot. Packed
> ...


Yeah... and rules like Gov Whitmer put in place in MI just funnel people into more tightly compact spaces within the stores. Nonsensical.


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## Sea Six (Apr 18, 2020)

It's scary when you can't breathe, other than short gasps of air.


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## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

I think this is all just a big push to get people to wash their damn selves

How do we not know that those dying are palm lickers?
Or the ones you see using the restroom and going from the can to the trough without washing their hands?

I have made ZERO changes. 
Still working. Travel all over the States for work and I’m not wearing a mask or gloves or not touching  my face. Touch touch touch
But I do as I always have. I wash my hands and shower

I do however stay back from others. Partly out of respect and partly because I’ve always stayed back some. Many people are disgusting


----------



## DaveNV (Apr 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> I'm not the expert, but tell me if this makes sense.
> 
> In the beginning, all we really knew were the vents and the deaths. those were hard numbers.  Now as the testing (both kinds - infected/post) is ramping up we have a different set of numbers.  Those numbers are increasing exponentially not specifically B/C of the virus increasing, but simply B/C we now have real testing/numbers we didn't have before.  Therefore, the numbers people are still using the actual deaths as a yard stick to say things are better.  The deaths are leveling off or decreasing even as the number of infected are increasing.  IOW, the number of newly infected each week is probably leveling off or decreasing but B/C of the testing the numbers released show a huge increase.



Yes, thanks.  It makes a lot of sense. 

Dave


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

The link below is to an article on al.com, a website that focuses on news in the state of Alabama. It is basically the current iteration of what used to be the three largest largest newspapers in the state. The article is about the plan to reopen businesses and how some of the top restaurant owners in the state feel about having people in their restaurants again before testing and PPE’s are available to protect their employees and the public. To reiterate, this is in Alabama, one of, if not the most, conservative states in the country.









						Restaurant owners call reopening in April ‘unrealistic’
					

Some restaurant owners around the state say they will not open their dining rooms earlier than April 30, regardless of whether Gov. Kay Ivey allows them to.




					www.al.com


----------



## Panina (Apr 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> The economy was not closed B/C it wasn't safe.  It was closed to 'flatten the curve' and keep our healthcare from being overwhelmed.
> 
> Mission accomplished.  Now open things up.  All those who feel unsafe can self isolate.
> 
> The states are moving quickly with the plans to open, because I think they know the jails can't hold all the American's who value their freedom, and will soon show it en masse.


Whereas I agree things need to start opening again we shouldn’t be naive to think just because the curve flattened it will stay that way.  If the masses do not take precautions we will be right back where we started.


----------



## DaveNV (Apr 18, 2020)

Panina said:


> Whereas I agree things need to start opening again we shouldn’t be naive to think just because the curve flattened it will stay that way.  If the masses do not take precautions we will be right back where we started.



I'd think even worse, since the virus is more widespread than it was a month ago. People congregating will bring it to the group from various locations. Those exposed will return to their homes and infect others there who weren't exposed previously.  It doesn't bode well.

Dave


----------



## Panina (Apr 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Protesters in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, Wyoming, New York and Virginia.
> 
> This is just the beginning.


Civil unrest is a by product of the mitigation.  Just imagine if many more had gotten sick and the medical system could not handle the virus or any other medical issues.  The protests would be too.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 18, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> The link below is to an article on al.com, a website that focuses on news in the state of Alabama. It is basically the current iteration of what used to be the three largest largest newspapers in the state. The article is about the plan to reopen businesses and how some of the top restaurant owners in the state feel about having people in their restaurants again before testing and PPE’s are available to protect their employees and the public. To reiterate, this is in Alabama, one of, if not the most, conservative states in the country.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks for posting this article. I am with the restaurant owners. Even if the government said I could re-open my office, I would not do so. My employees are not comfortable working in the office. Some have kids and the kids can‘t go to school so they need to stay home with the kids. If an employee or client got sick due to covid, it would just mean we need to shut down again. I am someone who is in favor of re-opening the economy ASAP yet I would not re-open my office if it is allowed. I would be cautious myself and wait and see when it is safe to re-open. To me, this is just good business sense.


----------



## Panina (Apr 18, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> I'd think even worse, since the virus is more widespread than it was a month ago. People congregating will bring it to the group from various locations. Those exposed will return to their homes and infect others there who weren't exposed previously.  It doesn't bode well.
> 
> Dave


I am hoping I am wrong, it might take an even more severe outbreak for more people  to take the precautions necessary.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 18, 2020)

capjak said:


> This is what has been delivered thus far:  *39.4 Million N95 Masks*, 431 million hospital gloves, 10.2 million hospital Gowns, 57 million surgical masks and 500 million produced by end of April and 100 Million distributed, 10,000 ventilators to NY and others distributed to other hot spots, 3,7 million tests.  Additional ventilators manufactured (NY delivering Federal ventilators to other states as they do not need them now...thank god).   Forgot the ships delivered to each coast as well as in several cities the millitary has built hospital beds and 1,000 or so military healthcare workers to NY to help.



I am glad the Army Corp of Engineers and military are on our side. They are impressive. They delivered what they were asked to do.

But far from a home run which is getting this country SAFELY out of SIP.

Yes a good start. The ventilators already existed in the stockpile but many didn't work because the service contracts were cut last August   Many N95s in the the stockpile were expired. At best a base hit from a bunt. These were already on hand so not a herculean effort to distribute. 39.4 million is nowhere near what is needed. California alone needs almost 200 million a month.

There is progress on ventilators with automotive but let's see results. They cannot even get enough swabs manufactured to run tests!

The much heralded "small business stimulus" -  PPP and EIDL programs are out of money and money went to big restaurant and hotel chain via a loop hole so Joe's local restaurant is SOL. Many small businesses haven't gotten money yet. What a mess!

Anyone who has been in business knows that if an executive brought these kind of results, with lots of excuses and blame game, you know what would happen...

Let's hope they can turn this around.


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> I think this is all just a big push to get people to wash their damn selves



And now you've hit on my biggest complaint of all......I can't even get my car washed!!!  Unlimited car wash plan on both cars and just look at them - pathetic!!  60 and sunny today - The wife says 'turn on the hose bibs and wash the cars'  ugh.


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> Person taking your money with gloves and a face filter touches everything. Including the face mask and then hands you your change



Most important advice yet during this pandemic:  PLEASE DO *NOT* USE CASH.  CC only.  Wipe it off when you can.  The virus is on that cash, trust me.




Gypsy65 said:


> How do we not know that those dying are palm lickers?



I hope in retrospect you might have rethought this comment, or worded it better. This thing is devastating on so many levels to many families.  Those that are in the ICU and struggling to breath and maybe followed every rule possible.  The virus infects souls from every walk of life.  People who go through all that and recover, and then go home and can't even get a real hug.  Sad


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> The article is about the plan to reopen businesses and how some of the top restaurant owners in the state feel about having people in their restaurants again before testing and PPE’s are available to protect their employees and the public



I say Mr Sessions is the  'canary' in your state.  If he feels safe enough to enter a specific eatery, I'm right behind him.


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Most important advice yet during this pandemic:  PLEASE DO *NOT* USE CASH.  CC only.  Wipe it off when you can.  The virus is on that cash, trust me.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Nope
I don’t and never have been a follower 

I don’t wish pain on anyone. Or very few. Wasn’t my point

I don’t believe everyone suffering or dying is strictly from this virus. I think there are many contributors 

And I believe. Not because I read a book but because I see daily firsthand many people are disgusting and dirty 

Now. You can believe that or not but I have seen guys in the toilet with their egg McMuffin on a napkin on the floor and then walk right on out

It’s people like this that spread and cause many illnesses 

What I will say is that we are all believing what we see on tv or hear on the radio

Sure. People don’t deserve this but many bring problems on themselves 

Another point to that is Home Depot 
Went there the other day and it was packed and the average age had to have been 70

Tell me those people aren’t bringing this on themselves


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 18, 2020)

I am in favor of lifting SIP/SAH and trying to get back to normal. However, I am supremely frustrated with people who are preaching to stay at home, yet they go out to Home Depot and other stores for non-essential items. I am really frustrated by the hypocrisy during this time.


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 18, 2020)

Panina said:


> Civil unrest is a by product of the mitigation.  Just imagine if many more had gotten sick and the medical system could not handle the virus or any other medical issues.  The protests would be too.



There's no doubt this is going to have huge economic and social impacts, and if it continues, the more likely people are going to get to the point where social action is the only move forward.

New York City, the U.S. epicenter of the COVID-19  pandemic, has seen a 75 percent increase in reports of burglaries of commercial establishments. 








						Locked-Down NYC Sees Rise in Business Burglaries; Other Offenses Down | The Crime Report
					

Burglaries of New York City commercial establishments have increased 75 percent between March 12 and March 31, but other types of crime have slowed since Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency, according to the NYPD.




					thecrimereport.org
				




We simply can't avoid social unrest. Social distancing, or even buying gloves and masks, is becoming more difficult for people running out of money. Keep in mind that unlike some other countries, the American people are not virtual wards of the state, helplessly waiting for government to take care of their every need. Right or wrong, if these shelter in place orders aren't lifted soon, people will fight back.


----------



## Big Matt (Apr 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> There's no doubt this is going to have huge economic and social impacts, and if it continues, the more likely people are going to get to the point where social action is the only move forward.
> 
> New York City, the U.S. epicenter of the COVID-19  pandemic, has seen a 75 percent increase in reports of burglaries of commercial establishments.
> 
> ...


This is spot on.  Americans are fairly smart in general even with the media feeding them garbage from the right and the left.  Here's what I know.  We were told that we needed to stay home so that we could flatten the curve, but this was to save the hospitals.  What about the vast majority of the United States WHERE THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CASES and there aren't any real pressures on the hospital systems?  People are now figuring out that we got the good old okie dokie.  The data doesn't support the original predictions.  I live in a county with about 400,000 people.  We have 413 cases so far and 8 deaths.  Our outbreaks are now mostly in long term care facilities.  Our hospitals aren't overwhelmed.  People across the country are going to start demanding answers.


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## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

Panina said:


> Civil unrest is a by product of the mitigation. Just imagine if many more had gotten sick and the medical system could not handle the virus or any other medical issues. The protests would be too.



This civil unrest is also the result of a Chief Instigator.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## R.J.C. (Apr 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @R.J.C. You feel exactly as I do.  And just because I'm not scared doesn't mean that I'm not understanding or respecting what we have been asked in society to do.  I'm following all of the "rules".  But as soon as they say "go", I'm off an running back to living my life as I used to.  I'm just not someone who lives my life with fear and anxiety as an undercurrent.



Just last night there was a crash in my county due to stupid or drunk driving. Truck crossed the center line at a high rate of speed and crashed into a van. Occupants of both vehicles dead.

So, just comparing the two:

Covid deaths - 2 (total)
Vehicle deaths - 4 (just one night)

I'll take my chances with the Juju bug.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> I say Mr Sessions is the 'canary' in your state. If he feels safe enough to enter a specific eatery, I'm right behind him.



I’d say any politician insisting on reopening businesses should be the first to visit and should personally welcome every employee and customer. If they aren’t willing to do that, shut up!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> Nope
> I don’t and never have been a follower
> 
> I don’t wish pain on anyone. Or very few. Wasn’t my point
> ...



I thiink you just showed that you are mote disgusting than the people you described. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## R.J.C. (Apr 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> That's a start but won't help a lot.  A facility close me had multiple deaths.  The experts wanted to move a group of 25 who had been separated for weeks with no symptoms to another facility.   The local people protested to stop the move.  Finally, the 'experts' thought if they tested the 25 then they might stop the protests so they could do what they wanted.  That is until 21 of the 25 tested positive. None of the group had shown ANY symptoms.  They had been individually isolated, temp checked everyday, and so on.
> 
> And given how easy this spreads, everyone would need to be tested frequently on an ongoing basis.



By your own admission, 84% had no symptoms whatsoever but were positive. Further proof how this whole thing has been blown so out of proportion.


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## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Thanks for posting this article. I am with the restaurant owners. Even if the government said I could re-open my office, I would not do so. My employees are not comfortable working in the office. Some have kids and the kids can‘t go to school so they need to stay home with the kids. If an employee or client got sick due to covid, it would just mean we need to shut down again. I am someone who is in favor of re-opening the economy ASAP yet I would not re-open my office if it is allowed. I would be cautious myself and wait and see when it is safe to re-open. To me, this is just good business sense.



Thank you for caring about your employees and clients.


----------



## Pathways (Apr 18, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> This civil unrest is also the result of a Chief Instigator.


Yes, Named 'Desperation' .  Did you see the line of cars at the Alamo Dome for food?  And it's going to get way worse before it gets better.  While I'm one of the first to talk about the 'nice cars at the food pantry', this is different.  A lot of these cars are going to be repossessed. And they will be angry, not B/C they are slackers, but B/C someone (right or wrong, we will know in a couple of years) made the decision to shut down their business. Business' that they have poured their B,S, and tears into.



R.J.C. said:


> By your own admission, 84% h........



I assume you know I said at the beginning '2 weeks OK, but any longer the cure will be worse than the disease.'


----------



## R.J.C. (Apr 18, 2020)

vacationtime1 said:


> Enough to test about 1% of all Americans.  A start, but we have a long way to go before we can safely re-open.



But you're happy to destroy the economy for about a 1% death rate (if it's even that high). Sad.

Reopen now and stop these shenanigans.


----------



## R.J.C. (Apr 18, 2020)

Sea Six said:


> It's scary when you can't breathe, other than short gasps of air.



So stay home. It's not your job to worry about me.


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> I thiink you just showed that you are mote disgusting than the people you described.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Oh ok
You must be the voice of reason then

Doubt it though

My point is that you and those like you are running with the media hype

Sure. People are dying. They die every day
A lot has to do with hygiene. Not all. But a lot

Again. If you can read. I said I’m not sure what the reason is and don’t think people should die period
But people. I’m going to add you to that group. Are gross. Dirty and disgusting 
Old. Young and everyone in between 

I shower. Twice a day. Wash my hands  regularly and guess what?  Been sick less than 4 times that I know of in the past 45 years
Not sure if I was as a toddler so my age recollection starts at about grade school and missed 1 day of work since age 18

So call me out. We can do this all night


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 18, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Agree that we cannot keep this going for more than a few months. We needed testing and PPE for more than hospital workers NOW so we can open up the economy granularly.
> 
> Why can't the Feds get more tests and PPE delivered? It has been two months. Perhaps we should put the Army Corps of Engineers and National Guard in charge of this process because they have their sh*t together and get results. Just look at how quickly they built those field hospitals. Very impressive.


Because good order and discipline combined with nuclear and biohazard ☣ required training and equipment makes us exceptionally prepared to help America in times of crisis. Thank God for the US military and National Guard.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 18, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> I’d say any politician insisting on reopening businesses should be the first to visit and should personally welcome every employee and customer. If they aren’t willing to do that, shut up!



Like this?...LOL


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 18, 2020)

heathpack said:


> I’d be quite interested to see the final peer reviewed version of this paper. I think the authors chose a quick expedient way to recruit test subjects, which makes sense given the desire to get results out ASAP in the midst of a pandemic. But in doing so, they may have introduced significant bias to their study.


 Very very good points. As more studies come along hopefully these issues are addressed-particularly the antibody type.


caribbeanqueen said:


> Roger I emailed the NIH study hoping my husband and I could be participants in it. We were both very sick after coming off a Princess Cruise late December. The quicker we can get the antibody testing done the quicker we can get people back to work. Those who do not have the antibodies and have compromised immune systems can still self isolate till the vaccine is ready or the virus leaves.


I emailed them too.  I have a question about your cruise- did they require you to be tested coming off the cruise? Or just quarantine? I think I read Diamond Princess they didn’t have testing until almost the end of the quarantine period and people didn’t want to get tested then for fear of being quarantined longer (which I totally understand).  I just think this may have been a lost opportunity to see just how fast and infectious this is in as close tot a real world but closed community.



DaveNW said:


> Where is the average person supposed to turn for resolution? It seems there is a swirling whirlpool of information, and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere but around in circles. Being safe is important, but there comes a point where people have to be able to live.
> 
> I just want to wake up from this.


 I’m sending virtual high fives, hugs and drink of choice for this. Perfect summation of the frustration I think many of us feel!


Ralph Sir Edward said:


> (Personal note - I am taking zinc supplement, D3 @ 1000 ISP units, (among other vitamins) as a prophylactic dose. . .)


 As a Dietitian- many people are borderline deficient in vitamin D! Especially as we age. 


Sugar cube sea said:


> They treat me the best I’ve ever been treated as a female director in the automotive industry. I’m hoping like hell this company survives and I can work here till I retire.


 I hope you can too! What dream to to find an employer like that! Hoping you all come through this safely!


Sea Six said:


> It's scary when you can't breathe, other than short gasps of air.


Yes it is. It is absolutely terrifying, concentrating on each breath, hoping he next one is easier.  I’m asthmatic.  Just today- getting plants for my garden, doin the distance thing, being careful etc.  some lady lights up a cigarette right on other side of plants cart.  Smoke is a sure trigger for me to have a bad attack.  Luckily I heard the click of lighter and got the heck outta there. Risk for me is EVERYWHERE. I just have to live with it. Very glad you are are on road to recovery!


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 18, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> I’d say any politician insisting on reopening businesses should be the first to visit and should personally welcome every employee and customer. If they aren’t willing to do that, shut up!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 18, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> Oh ok
> You must be the voice of reason then
> 
> Doubt it though
> ...


When you respond to an unreasonable person, you give them victory. How do you manage unreasonable people? You dismiss them. Like shadows


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 18, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Like this?...LOL
> 
> View attachment 19291



Exactly! LOL


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> When you respond to an unreasonable person, you give them victory. How do you manage unreasonable people? You dismiss them. Like shadows



True


----------



## PrairieGirl (Apr 18, 2020)

Read this today and really thought it hit the nail on the head......

*We are not in the same boat*
Something to think about... WE ARE NOT IN THE SAME BOAT ... I heard that we are all in the same boat, but it's not like that. We are in the same storm, but not in the same boat. Your ship could be shipwrecked and mine might not be. Or vice versa. 

For some, quarantine is optimal. A moment of reflection, of re-connection, easy in flip flops, with a cocktail or coffee. For others, this is a desperate financial & family crisis. For some that live alone they're facing endless loneliness. While for others it is peace, rest & time with their mother, father, sons & daughters. 

With the $600 weekly increase in unemployment some are bringing in more money to their households than they were working. Others are working more hours for less money due to pay cuts or loss in sales. 

Some families of 4 just received $3400 from the stimulus while other families of 4 saw $0. Some were concerned about getting a certain candy for Easter while others were concerned if there would be enough bread, milk and eggs for the weekend. 

Some want to go back to work because they don't qualify for unemployment and are running out of money. Others want to kill those who break the quarantine. 

Some are home spending 2-3 hours/day helping their child with online schooling while others are spending 2-3 hours/day to educate their children on top of a 10-12 hour workday. 

Some have experienced the near death of the virus, some have already lost someone from it and some are not sure if their loved ones are going to make it. Others don't believe this is a big deal. 

Some have faith in God and expect miracles during this 2020. Others say the worst is yet to come. 

So, friends, we are not in the same boat. We are going through a time when our perceptions and needs are completely different. Each of us will emerge, in our own way, from this storm. It is very important to see beyond what is seen at first glance. Not just looking, actually seeing. We are all on different ships during this storm experiencing a very different journey. 

Unknown author #DontJudgeOthers


----------



## Panina (Apr 18, 2020)

PrairieGirl said:


> Read this today and really thought it hit the nail on the head......
> 
> *We are not in the same boat*
> Something to think about... WE ARE NOT IN THE SAME BOAT ... I heard that we are all in the same boat, but it's not like that. We are in the same storm, but not in the same boat. Your ship could be shipwrecked and mine might not be. Or vice versa.
> ...


True but one ship can crash into another and both sink and then others ships come along and don’t see debris in the water and sink too.  No easy answered.  No matter which choices are made, it will be good for some but not others.  Choices need to be made what is best for most.  Others will suffer no matter what choices are made.


----------



## Big Matt (Apr 19, 2020)

I don't think we're in the same storm.  I think some places are being deluged while others have a few rain drops.  This is why the one size fits all model at the State level is a loser.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 19, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Yes, Named 'Desperation' .  .


I was actually thinking of a person. One you probably see a lot on TV.


----------



## geekette (Apr 19, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> I don't think we're in the same storm.  I think some places are being deluged while others have a few rain drops.  This is why the one size fits all model at the State level is a loser.


Yes, but, it's not like you can close county borders.  Our small towns thought they were safe and now are finding the virus is there, too.


----------



## capjak (Apr 19, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> I am glad the Army Corp of Engineers and military are on our side. They are impressive. They delivered what they were asked to do.
> 
> But far from a home run which is getting this country SAFELY out of SIP.
> 
> ...


 I was pointing out what had been done per your request.

   Also just to clarify some of your statements:

*"The ventilators already existed in the stockpile but many didn't work because the service contracts were cut last August "

*The service contract  expired in August and a new contract with a different company was authorized.   The contract with the expired contract was disputed by the legacy company delaying implementation of new contract (pre cover-19).   The new company started maintaining the ventilators in January.  Of the 14,000 ventilators the new company stated app 2,000 had yet to be maintained, they did not state that they do not work as a result.  So 10,000 ventilators still remain, if needed due to another surge, many are being shifted from state to state as needed.

Of the ventilators delivered, 170 delivered to california needed to be fixed.   They did not know why they did not work (may have been lack of service but I could not find any confirmation, only speculation.
*"Many N95s in the the stockpile were expired. At best a base hit from a bunt. These were already on hand so not a herculean effort to distribute."*
I do not know how many were expired or had rot, the reports I found indicated a small percent.   I do not know why they sat in the stockpile from 2009 until 2020 and were not replaced.  Of the 39 Million N95s most have been recently manufactured or were obtained from inventories at 3M/Honeywell etc..

I worked in biotech industry developing medical devices (infectious disease diagnostics) as well as pharmaceuticals.  The stockpile of masks, gowns etc were used during the H1N1 swine flu crisis in 2009 some were used in that crisis, what was left stayed in storage for future use.  N95 masked have been manufactured recently to replenish and use during this crisis. 

*They cannot even get enough swabs manufactured to run tests!*

As a Microbiologist having worked in diagnostics for 25 years, there are I believe only 2 or so suppliers of swabs qualified to be used for testing in the world, one is in the US.   These are not Qtip Swabs, and they are used in many health critical tests not just Covid-19.  It is quite amazing that there have been 30 Million Tests (Swabs) used over the last 8 weeks that had not been needed prior to this health crisis and still there are millions being manufactured to support testing.  
There are new tests common on line that use saliva so that will help.   Also the antibody test will use blood not a swab.

*The much heralded "small business stimulus" -  PPP and EIDL programs are out of money and money went to big restaurant and hotel chain via a loop hole so Joe's local restaurant is SOL. Many small businesses haven't gotten money yet. What a mess!*

There is a separate loan program for small business (1 to 500 employees) 377 Billion,  and Large Business (>500 employees) 500 Billion.  In addition "express loans" were required to be issued within 36 hours of application approval.  Thus far all 350 Billion has been either issued or approved to small business and more has been requested.  However congress must approve the additional taxpayer funds.

*I believe the steps/programs financial and safety wise executed by fed/state/local/healthcare private-non profit/first responders and just the general population as a whole  has never been so widespread and I feel grateful.  Thank God and I wish you the best during this stressful time!*


----------



## am1 (Apr 19, 2020)

Will the US pass Europe in the number of reported cases?  It looked that way until Russia started reporting more.  Thankfully it has mostly stated out of Africa and south east Asia or the results would be a disaster.


----------



## am1 (Apr 19, 2020)

geekette said:


> Yes, but, it's not like you can close county borders.  Our small towns thought they were safe and now are finding the virus is there, too.



Why not?  Have police checkpoints and if you are not in your correct area impound the car of give a ticket?


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 19, 2020)

am1 said:


> Why not?  Have police checkpoints and if you are not in your correct area impound the car of give a ticket?



Some areas are doing just that and it does raise some constitutional issues.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 19, 2020)

PrairieGirl said:


> Read this today and really thought it hit the nail on the head......
> 
> *We are not in the same boat*
> Something to think about... WE ARE NOT IN THE SAME BOAT ... I heard that we are all in the same boat, but it's not like that. We are in the same storm, but not in the same boat. Your ship could be shipwrecked and mine might not be. Or vice versa.
> ...



This is really good. It is very empathic and demonstrates how people are suffering in different ways. We need to care for others no matter how Covid-19 is affecting them. We do not know what other people are going through.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 19, 2020)

posted on wrong thread


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 19, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> I find this chart helpful when evaluating a source. I like how it separates opinion from news arms of major media.
> 
> Similar to a survey sample, I remove the outliers on both the left and right side. And then consider the middle columns knowing which way they bend and factoring that into my analysis. I have found excellent, factual articles on both Fox and CNN and WSJ and NYT, but disregards articles whenever it feels like it is in support of a political narrative on either side.
> 
> View attachment 19365



I generally agree with this chart. For the ones in the center, I would say NPR and Christian Science Monitor lean a bit left. Wall Street Journal definitely leans right, even their news group. I am an avid reader of New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post (where I have direct subscriptions). I read a lot of the others too through my Apple News subscription.


----------



## caribbeanqueen (Apr 21, 2020)

@Monykalyn  When we cruised it was over Christmas and barely anything was known back then.  So no testing, quarantines, nothing was going on and when I went to the hospital with my symptoms and had a negative flu and strep the doctor said it was "some type of virus." It wasn't known back then! Know how many people probably had this and had no idea? Many, many thousands.

We have two businesses. One we lease the building, one we own. The one we lease we may not reopen. Our governor is talking about months till we can open and paying rent and electric along with other bills just does not seem feasible. We will have a better idea in the next two weeks I think. Our numbers are still climbing unfortunately.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 24, 2020)

This is an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal. It is interesting and offers another unpopular but possible outcome. BTW, if the Covid death rate is lower than originally estimated, this is good news!

-----------------

*The Bearer of Good Coronavirus News*
Stanford scientist John Ioannidis finds himself under attack for questioning the prevailing wisdom about lockdowns.

Defenders of coronavirus lockdown mandates keep talking about science. “We are going to do the right thing, not judge by politics, not judge by protests, but by science,” California’s Gov. Gavin Newsom said this week. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer defended an order that, among other things, banned the sale of paint and vegetable seeds but not liquor or lottery tickets. “Each action has been informed by the best science and epidemiology counsel there is,” she wrote in an op-ed.

But scientists are almost never unanimous, and many appeals to “science” are transparently political or ideological. Consider the story of John Ioannidis, a professor at Stanford’s School of Medicine. His expertise is wide-ranging—he juggles appointments in statistics, biomedical data, prevention research and health research and policy. Google Scholar ranks him among the world’s 100 most-cited scientists. He has published more than 1,000 papers, many of them meta-analyses—reviews of other studies. Yet he’s now found himself pilloried because he dissents from the theories behind the lockdowns—because he’s looked at the data and found good news.

In a March article for Stat News, Dr. Ioannidis argued that Covid-19 is far less deadly than modelers were assuming. He considered the experience of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined Feb. 4 in Japan. Nine of 700 infected passengers and crew died. Based on the demographics of the ship’s population, Dr. Ioannidis estimated that the U.S. fatality rate could be as low as 0.025% to 0.625% and put the upper bound at 0.05% to 1%—comparable to that of seasonal flu.

“If that is the true rate,” he wrote, “locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.”.........

......Yet most criticism of the Stanford study has been aimed at defending the lockdown mandates against the implication that they’re an overreaction. “There’s some sort of mob mentality here operating that they just insist that this has to be the end of the world, and it has to be that the sky is falling. It’s attacking studies with data based on speculation and science fiction,” he says. “But dismissing real data in favor of mathematical speculation is mind-boggling.”

In part he blames the media: “We have some evidence that bad news, negative news [stories], are more attractive than positive news—they lead to more clicks, they lead to people being more engaged. And of course we know that fake news travels faster than true news. So in the current environment, unfortunately, we have generated a very heavily panic-driven, horror-driven, death-reality-show type of situation.”

The news is filled with stories of healthy young people who die of coronavirus. But Dr. Ioannidis recently published a paper with his wife, Despina Contopoulos-Ioannidis, an infectious-disease specialist at Stanford, that showed this to be a classic man-bites-dog story. The couple found that people under 65 without underlying conditions accounted for only 0.7% of coronavirus deaths in Italy and 1.8% in New York City.......










						Opinion | The Bearer of Good Coronavirus News
					

Stanford scientist John Ioannidis finds himself under attack for questioning the prevailing wisdom about lockdowns.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 24, 2020)

caribbeanqueen said:


> I went to the hospital with my symptoms and had a negative flu and strep the doctor said it was "some type of virus."


 Ah thanks for the reply! Glad you are ok too! I had a weird "viral" illness in December - neg for flu, strep etc, but couldn't breathe or stop coughing, and couldn't taste anything. My doc said my immune system was in "overdrive" and gave me steroids to slow it down.  Definitely helped with the coughing but I think I slept an average 3-4 hours a night for over a month. Just looked up serology testing near me and there is a lab that will do it-for $169.


TravelTime said:


> Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer defended an order that, among other things, banned the sale of paint and vegetable seeds but not liquor or lottery tickets. “Each action has been informed by the best science and epidemiology counsel there is,” she wrote in an op-ed


 and Gov Whitmer has loosened many of those restrictions - while extending the stay at home order-but now you can at least buy seeds. This as the number of confirmed case keep going up-so just what "science" is she following?? Of course testing is ramping up as well, but isn't the media focus on "science" and "spikes in number of cases" without also mentioning increased testing? 


TravelTime said:


> In part he blames the media:


Media amplifies everything. Social media is worse. So many idiots celebrities on twitter were really into social shaming and "stay inside". Not "stay home whenever possible" but literally "stay inside" like breathing air in your back yard was an instant death sentence. 
I read his Op-Ed awhile ago and he raised interesting points, we still don't know enough to say if this is an "over reaction" or not. Problem is we went into a lockdown as a "one size fits all" -which is OK when we don't know- but as more data becomes available then the sledgehammer needs to become a scalpel. For instance-one of the hospitals in my town built a "covid unit" to handle the surge. Not only is it sitting empty-the hospitals are no where near overwhelmed. And less than 50% of people (rough estimation on the few times I've been out) wear masks.  $1million (or more) to build something that is becoming more likely to not be used...meanwhile car lines for food grow ever longer...we've clearly flattened the curve-why are things not allowed to ease up?

I like what @PrairieGirl posted: we are NOT in the same boat. And it is important to remember some have better boats to weather the storm than others, and some have a much worse storm to survive.  It's as good an analogy as any.


----------



## davidvel (Apr 24, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal. It is interesting and offers another unpopular but possible outcome. BTW, if the Covid death rate is lower than originally estimated, this is good news!
> 
> -----------------
> 
> ...


Careful, you'll be mocked as a fool and deny-er for even posting an alternative thought.


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 24, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Careful, you'll be mocked as a fool and deny-er for even posting an alternative thought.


Always good to provoke a discussion though


----------



## easyrider (Apr 24, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This article is good news! Why are people so upset about good news?



It is very good news but........ many people have politicized and supressed this news because the models of infection were so wrong and the backlash makes the experts look like they are wrong.

It's also odd that the news reported that some one said to disinfect blood and have it reported as using Lysol instead of a FDA approve blood disinfectant like formaldehyde.  

Bill


----------



## Brett (Apr 25, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Careful, you'll be mocked as a fool and deny-er for even posting an alternative thought.





easyrider said:


> It is very good news but........ many people have politicized and supressed this news because the models of infection were so wrong and the backlash makes the experts look like they are wrong.
> It's also odd that the news reported that some one said to disinfect blood and have it reported as using Lysol instead of a FDA approve blood disinfectant like formaldehyde.
> 
> Bill




the WSJ "good news" article was marked   

 

plenty of opinions in these pandemic times  
(including using disinfectants)


----------



## bluehende (Apr 25, 2020)

easyrider said:


> It is very good news but........ many people have politicized and supressed this news because the models of infection were so wrong and the backlash makes the experts look like they are wrong.
> 
> It's also odd that the news reported that some one said to disinfect blood and have it reported as using Lysol instead of a FDA approve blood disinfectant like formaldehyde.
> 
> Bill


Suppressed  most would say maybe over hyped as I hear about this study 10 times a day.  People here saw the flaws discussed here at once.

Certainly with the testing we are doing the infection rate is certainly higher than tests show.  However to say herd immunity is close due to this study is equally as silly.  More study is certainly needed.

quoted from Science one of the most distinguished periodicals,



A California serology study of 3300 people released last week in a preprint also drew strong criticisms. The lead authors of the study, Jay Bhattacharya and Eran Bendavid, who study health policy at Stanford University, worked with colleagues to recruit the residents of Santa Clara county through ads on Facebook. Fifty antibody tests were positive—about 1.5%. But after adjusting the statistics to better reflect the county’s demographics, the researchers concluded that between 2.49% and 4.16% of the county’s residents had likely been infected. That suggests, they say, that the real number of infections was as many as 80,000. That’s more than 50 times as many as viral gene tests had confirmed and implies a low fatality rate—a reason to consider whether strict lockdowns are worthwhile, argue Bendavid and co-author John Ioannidis, who studies public health at Stanford.
On the day the preprint posted, co-author Andrew Bogan—a biotech investor with a biophysics Ph.D.—published an op-ed in _The Wall Street Journal_ asking, “If policy makers were aware from the outset that the Covid-19 death toll would be closer to that of seasonal flu … would they have risked tens of millions of jobs and livelihoods?” The op-ed did not initially disclose his role in the study.
Yet Twitter threads and blog posts outlined a litany of apparent problems with the Santa Clara study. Recruiting through Facebook likely attracted people with COVID-19–like symptoms who wanted to be tested, boosting the apparent positive rate. Because the absolute numbers of positive tests were so small, false positives may have been nearly as common as real infections. The study also had relatively few participants from low-income and minority populations, meaning the statistical adjustments the researchers made could be way off. “I think the authors of the paper owe us all an apology,” wrote Columbia University statistician and political scientist Andrew Gelman in an online commentary. The numbers “were essentially the product of a statistical error.”


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Suppressed  most would say maybe over hyped as I hear about this study 10 times a day.  People here saw the flaws discussed here at once.
> 
> Certainly with the testing we are doing the infection rate is certainly higher than tests show.  However to say herd immunity is close due to this study is equally as silly.  More study is certainly needed.
> 
> ...



It is not just California, similar studies have similar results with very high infection rates in Germany, New York, Sweden.

Sweden estimates that 20% of the population was infected, they expect to reach herd immunity in few weeks. Sweden has a population of 11,000,000 if you apply a 3% mortality rate (initially presumed)  they should have had 66,000 deaths from Covid but they had 40 times less deaths associated with the virus. Four studies point to the same conclusion, the virus is a lot less deadly. Why should we hang on to the "data" that came from China in February and March instead of listening to the new  scientific research in the United States, Germany and Sweden?









						Sweden queries basis of lockdowns as Germany keeps its guard up
					

Looser regime means Sweden is better placed to face second wave, says chief epidemiologist




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 25, 2020)

Brett said:


> the WSJ "good news" article was marked View attachment 19633
> 
> plenty of opinions in these pandemic times
> (including using disinfectants)



It seems we have reached the point in this country where many people think an opinion that agrees with them is a fact while a fact that agrees with others is an opinion.


----------



## Quilter (Apr 25, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Yes it is. It is absolutely terrifying, concentrating on each breath, hoping he next one is easier.  I’m asthmatic.  Just today- getting plants for my garden, doin the distance thing, being careful etc.  some lady lights up a cigarette right on other side of plants cart.  Smoke is a sure trigger for me to have a bad attack.  Luckily I heard the click of lighter and got the heck outta there. Risk for me is EVERYWHERE. I just have to live with it. Very glad you are are on road to recovery!



DD was born in 1987.   Was diagnosed with asthma about 3 yo.   We would use a nebulizer when she got a cold.   We called it "The Cloud".   I had her in a Ladies Room at a restaurant when I heard someone light a cigarette in the next stall.       So glad cigarette smoking has been banned in restaurants.


----------



## "Roger" (Apr 25, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> It seems we have reached the point in this country where many people think an opinion that agrees with them is a fact while a fact that agrees with others is an opinion.


Basically what you are describing is confirmation bias. People (everyone) tends to pay more attention to things that agree with their own views and less attention to anything contradictory. (T_R_Ogladyte posted about this on another thread.)  A sister of confirmation bias is the fact that people can have very good critical thinking skills when examining an opinion that they disagree with, but give their own views a complete pass. (Conspiracy theorists are a particularly good example of this.)

With regard to the role that facts play. There have been some very discouraging studies that indicate with regard to such things as religious or political views, when presented with facts (and I do mean outright facts) that contradict their views, that only makes them believe what they believe even more.

The only thing that you can do about confirmation bias (and we are all guilty of it) is be aware that it exists, read all sorts of things on both sides of an issue, and be willing to critically examine one's own views.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 25, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> ...and be willing to critically examine one's own views.


I agree and the last part is what gets most of us. I read op-ed pieces by people I don’t necessarily agree with. BUT, and it is a big BUT with me, they have to come with facts and evidence to support their opinion. I don‘t really care what anyone thinks as long as they can tell me why and support it with more than just that’s what they believe. It’s like me saying I think the Miami Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl in 2050. So? I have nothing to back up that thinking so why would anyone care what I think? I will, or I at least will try, to examine my views as long as you give me a reason to do so.


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Apr 25, 2020)

PrairieGirl said:


> Read this today and really thought it hit the nail on the head......
> 
> *We are not in the same boat*
> Something to think about... WE ARE NOT IN THE SAME BOAT ... I heard that we are all in the same boat, but it's not like that. We are in the same storm, but not in the same boat. Your ship could be shipwrecked and mine might not be. Or vice versa.
> ...


I love this.  It is so true.  We are retired and enjoy pension and Medicare (now that we are both 65, which just happened recently).  We have kids who are all devastated by this virus.  I can easily see our son losing his house, and maybe both of our sons will lose their homes.  We are frantically getting rid of stuff, in case our son and his family need to move into our home.  Our house is paid off, so we don't have to worry.


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Apr 25, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Careful, you'll be mocked as a fool and deny-er for even posting an alternative thought.


Yep, and I thought the article was spot on, so I guess that is also me.


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 25, 2020)

Quilter said:


> DD was born in 1987.   Was diagnosed with asthma about 3 yo.   We would use a nebulizer when she got a cold.   We called it "The Cloud".   I had her in a Ladies Room at a restaurant when I heard someone light a cigarette in the next stall.       So glad cigarette smoking has been banned in restaurants.


Me too! and banned on hospital grounds here. Hope your DD is doing well!


----------



## easyrider (Apr 25, 2020)

Brett said:


> the WSJ "good news" article was marked   View attachment 19633
> 
> plenty of opinions in these pandemic times
> (including using disinfectants)



What I am refering to is the studies that were recently completed in California that after testing reveals that many more people than they estimated actually had and recovered from covid 19. These two studies prove that by under reporting the cases of covid 19 and over reporting the covid 19 deaths , the reported death rate is much higher. ................. But lets keep using the CDC models, that have been proven wrong and show a very high death rate to make policy that impacts our lives. Certainly, most news outlets will keep their bias in favor of the CDC.

Then there is the hydrochoriquin zpak treatment that many doctors have used with success. The news reports that is only accedontal and is dangerous even as many people have recovered from covid 19 from the use.

Instead , the CDC and many others are pushing for a vacine. The time line for a vacine is about 12 -18 months. There are many political reasons why some groups would rather wait for the vacine instead of using a treatment.   

Bill


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 25, 2020)

Brett said:


> the WSJ "good news" article was marked   View attachment 19633
> 
> plenty of opinions in these pandemic times
> (including using disinfectants)



This is not intended just for you but I am replying to your post since it mentions this topic. This has been discussed many times on TUG.

Here is my opinion on Opinion pieces:

Just because something is mentioned in an Opinion piece does not make it an opinion. What the author writes about the study is his opinion but the study is still something that happened that is being reported on. It is possible that the study is not good or gets disputed later on or it might be supported by other studies. It is still scientific inquiry that is progressing the field, regardless of the results or whether it is mentioned in an Opinion piece. For the immunity studies, there have now been many done in Santa Clara County, Los Angeles, Germany and other places. They are getting similar results that the percentage of people with the virus is much higher than projected and the mortality rate is lower than projected. This is not yet a “fact” but with more studies, eventually science will get to the facts. I think if people dismiss an opinion article simply because it says Opinion at the top, then they are throwing the baby out with the bath water.


----------



## Quilter (Apr 25, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Me too! and banned on hospital grounds here. Hope your DD is doing well!



She is.   She grew up to be an ER and post op nurse.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 25, 2020)

If anyone else likes Bill Maher, this is an interview with Dr. David Katz who wrote the op ed in the NYT "Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?"


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 25, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> I love this.  It is so true.  We are retired and enjoy pension and Medicare (now that we are both 65, which just happened recently).  We have kids who are all devastated by this virus.  I can easily see our son losing his house, and maybe both of our sons will lose their homes.  We are frantically getting rid of stuff, in case our son and his family need to move into our home.  Our house is paid off, so we don't have to worry.



have your sons been in contact with their banks etc??

we have been involved with real estate for years and I’m thinking that one thing that banks don’t want at any price is to take a home back
Not when there is the possibility of the market getting flooded with foreclosures and the ability to re sell them to others either in the same situation or those who are holding on to their finances


----------



## Brett (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is not intended just for you but I am replying to your post since it mentions this topic. This has been discussed many times on TUG.
> 
> Here is my opinion on Opinion pieces:
> 
> Just because something is mentioned in an Opinion piece does not make it an opinion. What the author writes about the study is his opinion but the study is still something that happened that is being reported on. It is possible that the study is not good or gets disputed later on or it might be supported by other studies. It is still scientific inquiry that is progressing the field, regardless of the results or whether it is mentioned in an Opinion piece. For the immunity studies, there have now been many done in Santa Clara County, Los Angeles, Germany and other places. They are getting similar results that the percentage of people with the virus is much higher than projected and the mortality rate is lower than projected. This is not yet a “fact” but with more studies, eventually science will get to the facts. I think if people dismiss an opinion article simply because it says Opinion at the top, then they are throwing the baby out with the bath water.




My opinion on Opinion pieces:
too often someone here posts an opinion piece or a "study" claiming it's fact.  Then someone else points to another opinion that seems to show the opposite
It's fine to read them but maybe not appropriate for posting to the TUG lounge ....  but hey - *I'm certainly no moderator !!   *


----------



## x3 skier (Apr 26, 2020)

Opinions and studies are two different animals.

If the study assumptions and how it was conducted are reported accurately (usually but not always true), then the results should be considered accurate. Of course there’s always a possibility of academic fraud. This can be minimized by peer reviews and similar studies with similar results.

When someone then states what it means for a decision or applicability to a different set of circumstances, that’s an opinion.

As many have said in one way or another,
*Every man has a right to his opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts.*
— Bernard Baruch

Cheers


----------



## Maple_Leaf (Apr 26, 2020)

According to WaPo getting infected with coronavirus increases morbidity from strokes and blood clots.


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/?utm_campaign


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 26, 2020)

Maple_Leaf said:


> According to WaPo getting infected with coronavirus increases morbidity from strokes and blood clots.
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/?utm_campaign


This isn't new for infections though
From 1999








						Review: Infectious Diseases and Coagulation Disorders
					

Abstract. Infection, both bacterial and nonbacterial, may be associated with coagulation disorders, resulting in disseminated intravascular coagulation and mult




					academic.oup.com
				



Severe stress can also cause blood pressure problems-leading to clots as well. This situation is almost a perfect storm of stress/infection....
Also-thanks to alarming media headlines this struck me as ominous, and perhaps why the cases are among the younger and severe: 
"Oxley, the interventional neurologist, said one striking aspect of the cases is how long many waited before seeking emergency care."  They were afraid of contracting Covid19!


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> If anyone else likes Bill Maher, this is an interview with Dr. David Katz who wrote the op ed in the NYT "Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?"


not a huge fan of Maher but this was a pretty good interview, especially the end where he promotes healthy lifestyles. Thanks for sharing


----------



## Maple_Leaf (Apr 26, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> This isn't new for infections though


So, probably just another good reason to avoid any infections, including COVID-19.


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 26, 2020)

Maple_Leaf said:


> So, probably just another good reason to avoid any infections, including COVID-19.


Or if you do get sick to not delay diagnosis and treatment


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> not a huge fan of Maher but this was a pretty good interview, especially the end where he promotes healthy lifestyles. Thanks for sharing



The part about healthy lifestyles was rather funny. Maybe covid will scare people into eating healthy and exercising? Good luck! Heart disease, diabetes, cancer and hypertension has not worked yet.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

The other thing about opinion vs news articles. News articles can also be biased based on the headlines, the content selected for the article, who is quoted, and what part of the “facts” the reporters choose to report on.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> The part about healthy lifestyles was rather funny. Maybe covid will scare people into eating healthy and exercising? Good luck! Heart disease, diabetes, cancer and hypertension has not worked yet.


We can all do more for our health, maybe some  people should see this as a wake up call. He mentioned that you can get an immunity boost right away (hours and days) with better nutrition and exercising.


----------



## Gypsy65 (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> The part about healthy lifestyles was rather funny. Maybe covid will scare people into eating healthy and exercising? Good luck! Heart disease, diabetes, cancer and hypertension has not worked yet.



I just want to see people washing their hands on a regular basis. Especially after using a restroom
It is disgusting how many people NEVER wash
The other day I watched a guy brushing his teeth in a public restroom and set his toothbrush on the nasty wet counter

I don’t even set mine on my own counter in my own home or keep it in the bathroom


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 26, 2020)

Maple_Leaf said:


> So, probably just another good reason to avoid any infections, including COVID-19.



As there are countless ways to acquire an infection, I doubt there is anyone living that can "avoid any infections".


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 26, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> The other day I watched a guy brushing his teeth in a public restroom and set his toothbrush on the nasty wet counter


That made me gag!  I've got large supply of tooth brushes (new) as when someone gets sick the toothbrush is tossed. its tossed again when better and start a fresh one.  Mouth/gum health is underrated-especially with links to so many chronic diseases.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

This is some interesting information from Talkspace, an online therapy program. It shows how people's concerns are evolving from worry about the virus and health to finances and relationship issues due to the shut downs.

Talkspace, which connects users to therapists via video and text, says it has seen a 65% rise in demand. As the pandemic grinds on, the company is seeing people’s concerns change: Initially, many users had intense anxiety about the virus and their and their loved ones’ health, says Neil Leibowitz, the company’s chief medical officer. That has shifted to worries about finances. More recently, relationship issues have come to the fore. “People aren’t used to spending so much time together,” Dr. Leibowitz says.​


----------



## Sugarcubesea (Apr 26, 2020)

Gypsy65 said:


> have your sons been in contact with their banks etc??
> 
> we have been involved with real estate for years and I’m thinking that one thing that banks don’t want at any price is to take a home back
> Not when there is the possibility of the market getting flooded with foreclosures and the ability to re sell them to others either in the same situation or those who are holding on to their finances



RickandCindy23, I echo saying to have your kids talk to the mortgage company holding their loans... 

Back in 2008, when the Great Recession hit Michigan, by the time 2009 rolled in, my subdivision had 79 homes in bankruptcy or foreclosure... Both of my neighbors on either side of me stopped paying their mortgage in 2008 (when both spouses lost their jobs) and were not forced to move out of the homes till 2011 when the market started getting better in MI. The mortgage companies made deals with them that if they kept the house up and cut the grass, shoveled the snow, kept the utilities on  (as our sub has penalties from the city) they could stay in the house.  Both sets of neighbors came out the recession and went on to move to other states and were able to get mortgages years later.  

Mortgage lenders can not have millions of homes sitting vacant and vandalized they will most likely work out a deal.


----------



## queenofthehive (Apr 26, 2020)

“Authors owe us all an apology”: Experts doubt Stanford antibody study
					

A study estimating that there were 85 times the reported number of cases in Santa Clara County is an example of "how NOT to do statistics," experts say.




					www.salon.com


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

queenofthehive said:


> “Authors owe us all an apology”: Experts doubt Stanford antibody study
> 
> 
> A study estimating that there were 85 times the reported number of cases in Santa Clara County is an example of "how NOT to do statistics," experts say.
> ...



I read that the Stanford researchers are re-doing their study. It is too bad that their study had so many holes in it as it has hurt their credibility. Plus many people do not want these results to be true. The authors said they have been the black sheep of the research community, even before the study was released.

I suspect it might still be accurate since other locations (LA, NYC, Germany and others) that have done these types of studies have had similar results and/or even higher immunity rates. Plus all the experts are saying the virus may have been circulating in Santa Clara county as early as January, maybe sooner. It makes sense that more people in Santa Clara County may have had the virus already given what the experts are uncovering here.

This is simply an anecdotal observation. My DH works in Santa Clara County. He was really sick for 3 weeks in February. He said everyone at work was sick. He had an upper respiratory virus that could have actually been Covid. Fortunately I did not get it.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

queenofthehive said:


> “Authors owe us all an apology”: Experts doubt Stanford antibody study
> 
> 
> A study estimating that there were 85 times the reported number of cases in Santa Clara County is an example of "how NOT to do statistics," experts say.
> ...


Can these studies be improved? Probably but even if they had a 50% false positive (and salon.com has no evidence of that), we are still talking about a lot of people who already had the virus.
Governor Cuomo announced 20% infection rate in NYC, Sweden 20% as well. Are they all wrong and those that stay at home critiquing them right?

We were told to rely on science. As perfectible as these studies are, they are a lot more scientific than the data we based our initial decisions on.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is some interesting information from Talkspace, an online therapy program. It shows how people's concerns are evolving from worry about the virus and health to finances and relationship issues due to the shut downs.
> 
> Talkspace, which connects users to therapists via video and text, says it has seen a 65% rise in demand. As the pandemic grinds on, the company is seeing people’s concerns change: Initially, many users had intense anxiety about the virus and their and their loved ones’ health, says Neil Leibowitz, the company’s chief medical officer. That has shifted to worries about finances. More recently, relationship issues have come to the fore. “People aren’t used to spending so much time together,” Dr. Leibowitz says.​


Iam still working full time, away from home, however my better half is a teacher and working from home. We get along very well, but have noticed this is affecting us ad well. I need a VACATION !!!


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Iam still working full time, away from home, however my better half is a teacher and working from home. We get along very well, but have noticed this is affecting us ad well. I need a VACATION !!!



We are lucky that we have a very large home. My DH goes downstairs into the big wine cellar that we converted into his office. I work upstairs in my office. My DH takes the 3 dogs with him and only comes out for lunch and to walk the dogs. He works from 7:30 am until 5 pm consistently. So I do not really see him during the day. I like that he is home 24/7 even if I do not see him during the day. We are able to have dinner together at a decent time. I like that a lot. We get along really well and I enjoy his company. So no relationship problems for us. The SIP has actually increased my happiness in terms of having my DH close by all the time. He is the love of my life and I like having him close by, especially in these difficult times.


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 26, 2020)

Dr. Deborah Birx said that “social distancing will be with us through the summer to really ensure that we protect one another as we move through these phases.









						W.H. Coronavirus Official: Social Distancing 'Will Be With Us' Through Summer
					

Dr. Deborah Birx said, however, that she has “great hope” looking at projections for some U.S. cities.




					www.huffpost.com
				





To think the general public will continue this that long, is simply wishful thinking.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Dr. Deborah Birx said that “social distancing will be with us through the summer to really ensure that we protect one another as we move through these phases.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Social distancing is different than shut downs. I suspect many people will still try to practice social distancing when they go out. Most businesses will be putting social distancing rules in place before re-opening, if they are smart. I know I will not re-open my office after the shut downs end. But that is mostly due to liability. I do not want to get sued if one of my employees or clients gets Covid-19. If the government passes a law saying business owners are not liable for Covid-19 unless it is intentional, I might have a different opinion.


----------



## Luanne (Apr 26, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Dr. Deborah Birx said that “social distancing will be with us through the summer to really ensure that we protect one another as we move through these phases.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Or maybe the general public who care about themselves and others will.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

I would like to compare Sweden with the province of Quebec, Canada.

Quebec has had very strict rules including closed restaurants, bars, schools, parks, all non-essential businesses and has given tickets to enforce the rules when necessary. According to Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, Quebec has one of the highest rates of compliance in North America and people did stay home during the past month as requested.

Quebec has a similar climate with Sweden, a comparable population size. Both have universal health care and very strong social programs. Despite the very restrictive measures in Quebec, the numbers are not that different..



Situation in Québec

April 26th, 2020, 13:15

Confirmed cases

24 107

Negative cases

171 470

Number of hospitalizations

1 518

Number of deaths

1 515



Sweden

Confirmed cases

18640

Number of deaths

2194


----------



## VacationForever (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Social distancing is different than shut downs. I suspect many people will still try to practice social distancing when they go out. Most businesses will be putting social distancing rules in place before re-opening, if they are smart. I know I will not re-open my office after the shut downs end. But that is mostly due to liability. I do not want to get sued if one of my employees or clients gets Covid-19. If the government passes a law saying business owners are not liable for Covid-19 unless it is intentional, I might have a different opinion.


A business owner can never be too careful about liability and getting sued.  One of the "perks" of being a business owner and employer.  I would do the same if I were to be in your position.


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Or maybe the general public who care about themselves and others will.



And therein lies the problem. All one needs to do is look at the beaches that have opened. I've seen it every day in person just driving. You can look in the background at a live news story. These are the people who flaunt the science and if or when getting the virus, bring it to others. I believe it will only get worse as months go by. Obviously people question their rights being taken and the longer this goes on, more and more will also do so.


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is simply an anecdotal observation. My DH works in Santa Clara County. He was really sick for 3 weeks in February. He said everyone at work was sick. He had an upper respiratory virus that could have actually been Covid. Fortunately I did not get it.


I know the "official scientists" want to knock this, and that the sample wasn't representative-but even if only 50% are actually true that's still alot of people who had this like you said. And it means the amount of mild illness is way way higher than estimated, then the Asymptomatic should be higher as well. The "experts" tell us to rely on science-except when it goes against their dug in position. I don't know what poster put it as the politicians are now vested in being proven "right" with the lockdown and wreckage of global economy. It will be interesting the next few weeks as things slowly open up. If severe spikes don't happen the media will lose interest.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I know the "official scientists" want to knock this, and that the sample wasn't representative-but even if only 50% are actually true that's still alot of people who had this like you said. And it means the amount of mild illness is way way higher than estimated, then the Asymptomatic should be higher as well. The "experts" tell us to rely on science-except when it goes against their dug in position. I don't know what poster put it as the politicians are now vested in being proven "right" with the lockdown and wreckage of global economy. It will be interesting the next few weeks as things slowly open up. If severe spikes don't happen the media will lose interest.



We should all be hoping that when things start slowly opening up, that the covid cases and deaths do not spike significantly. That would be great news and save many lives. It is still beyond my understanding as to why the experts and many in the general public want this to be a catastrophe.


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 26, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> And therein lies the problem. All one needs to do is look at the beaches that have opened. I've seen it every day in person just driving. You can look in the background at a live news story. These are the people who flaunt the science and if or when getting the virus, bring it to others. I believe it will only get worse as months go by. Obviously people question their rights being taken and the longer this goes on, more and more will also do so.


or we could stop the virtue signaling that people who are out are "selfish" because the local government said they could. Especially as more evidence comes out how deeply flawed the original models were, and more evidence comes out that a higher percent of population has already been exposed-especially as the "models" havent bothered to update themselves with the FIRST CONFIRMED death WEEKS before the models start.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

doctors are starting to speak out more and more and question the CDC approach
Dr. Daniel W. Erickson of Bakersfield, California, is a former emergency-room physician who co-owns, with his partner Dr. Artin Massih, Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield. They are interviewed by a hostile reporter.


----------



## Luanne (Apr 26, 2020)

What is scaring the shit out of me are these reports of young people who are barely sick with COVID-19 having strokes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

And if you can't get to the Washington Post article, here is another one:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-deaths-symptoms-covid-19-heart-a9484091.html


----------



## Panina (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Social distancing is different than shut downs. I suspect many people will still try to practice social distancing when they go out. Most businesses will be putting social distancing rules in place before re-opening, if they are smart. I know I will not re-open my office after the shut downs end. But that is mostly due to liability. I do not want to get sued if one of my employees or clients gets Covid-19. If the government passes a law saying business owners are not liable for Covid-19 unless it is intentional, I might have a different opinion.


Sadly many will  not practice social distancing.  My state opened phase 1 and if the rest of the US does what I am seeing by me the numbers will rise again.  Stores are not practicing the limit allowed in stores,  in jam packed parking lots I have noticed only a few wearing  mask, in my neighborhood neighbors are not social distancing, they are within inches talking and even two resident just planned a block party early May with open buffet.  

 I just don't understand why people don't get it.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> What is scaring the shit out of me are these reports of young people who are barely sick with COVID-19 having strokes.
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
> 
> ...




I am not sure I understand your point. People die for a lot of reasons at all ages, the risk of dying is not zero at any age.  Did WP found something that we do not know or this is another scare tactic?






"Strokes can and do occur at ANY age. Nearly one fourth of strokes occur in people under the age of 65. "





						Stroke Statistics | Internet Stroke Center
					






					www.strokecenter.org


----------



## Luanne (Apr 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I am not sure I understand your point. People die for a lot of reasons at all ages, the risk of dying is not zero at any age.  Did WP found something that we do not know or this is another scare tactic?



Do I have to have a point?  This scares me.  Shows there is still a lot we don't know. Part of what scares me is that these are young people, like the ages of my daughters.  Another thing is that they weren't very sick.  Here is another article where they are indicating that COVID-19 appears to be causing the strokes.  This was from a doctor at Mt. Sinai.  And dh found an article, which I can find now where a surgeon was saying that as he was removing one clot another was forming.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Part of what scares me is that these are young people, like the ages of my daughters.  Another thing is that they weren't very sick.  Here is another article where they are indicating that COVID-19 appears to be causing the strokes.  This was from a doctor at Mt. Sinai.  And dh found an article, which I can find now where a surgeon was saying that as he was removing one clot another was forming.
> 
> https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html


on one hand we are told to listen to science. On the other hand now we have to listen to anecdotal evidence. I actually know someone who had a stroke 2 years ago, he was 43 at the time and "perfectly healthy" As I quoted before:

"Strokes can and do occur at ANY age. Nearly one fourth of strokes occur in people under the age of 65. "






						Stroke Statistics | Internet Stroke Center
					






					www.strokecenter.org


----------



## Luanne (Apr 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> on one hand we are told to listen to science. On the other hand now we have to listen to anecdotal evidence. I actually know someone who had a stroke 2 years ago, he was 43 at the time and "perfectly healthy" As I quoted before:
> 
> "Strokes can and do occur at ANY age. Nearly one fourth of strokes occur in people under the age of 65. "
> 
> ...


Forget it.  I feel like I am getting beat up every time I post something.

You can have your thoughts and data and I can have my fears and "anecdotal evidence".   I guess doctors don't qualify as scientific advice any longer.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

Doctors generally provide advice based on their clinical experience unless they have done a randomly controlled sample test or are using evidence-based findings to give advice. Doctors are just humans with a little more medical knowledge than most. There is a difference between medical professionals and scientists.


----------



## Panina (Apr 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> What is scaring the shit out of me are these reports of young people who are barely sick with COVID-19 having strokes.
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
> 
> ...


I can definitely understand your concern.  I am thinking that due to more stress because of Covid-19 other factors then just the virus are contributing to increase of strokes such as stress due to being scared, the unknown, loss of job, etc.   Add the covid-19 on top of stress related illnesses and it is just too much for the body.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

There are reports of young people with no underlying conditions dying. However, you need to look at the statistics and make sure you are looking at unbiased reports. The statistics still show that young people without underlying conditions are in the minority.


----------



## Luanne (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> There are reports of young people with no underlying conditions dying. However, you need to look at the statistics and make sure you are looking at unbiased reports. The statistics still show that young people without underlying conditions are in the minority.


Hey, it doesn't take much to make me concerned, or scared.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Forget it. I feel like I am getting beat up every time I post something.
> 
> You can have your thoughts and data and I can have my fears and "anecdotal evidence". I guess doctors don't qualify as scientific advice any longer.



Yes, they do, Luanne! It may not seem like it sometimes when so many with no medical education or experience want to drown out the experts, but, they do matter. And, I believe a big majority of us are listening to them and the factual data, not to the writers of unsubstantiated opinions.


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 26, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> And, I believe a big majority of us are listening to them and the factual data, not to the writers of unsubstantiated opinions.



And yet you continue to respond to those with opinions and if I recall, each contributor has a right to their opinion, unsubstantiated or not. Keep in mind that if one feels as though they are "getting beat up", simply ignore them or understand that when posting a viewpoint there will be differing of opinions, should others be "experts" or not.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Doctors are just humans with a little more medical knowledge than most.


The education requirements before one can become a doctor from the website Study.com:

The requirements for becoming a doctor in the U.S. may vary by specialty. In general, doctors complete a 4-year undergraduate degree program, spend 4 years in medical school, and then complete 3-7 years of residency training before they are eligible for medical licensing.

And, then once they start their residency and practice, they gain the experience along with continuing education requirements. Imho, that is substantially more, not a little more.


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Apr 26, 2020)

[/QUOTE].....To think the general public will continue this that long, is simply wishful thinking.   
[/QUOTE]

HI VH ,
Picked you to quote / not to pick on .

********

Here is my perspective as a Canadian / Ontario resident .

In Canada part of my taxes go to the healthcare system - I see myself as a part owner of that system 
and want to make sure it is still there - when I need it ( hopefully not for Covid 19).

The CEO of Ontario (premier ) wants people to stay home right now - to protect healthcare workers and other front line workers . He just raised their pay $ 4 / hr for the next few months . 
I am complying .......

If Ontario was a TIMESHARE - I would want the HOA and CEO to protect my part ownership of the resort .
If they tell people they can’t party at the pool to 3 am ; trash the hottub & other facilities ; I see it as protecting 
the value of the resort where I want to go in “2021.”

In Ontario - healthcare is a resort amenity that everyone “enjoys “ and many or most residents want to keep it that way - and are willing to make sacrifices to ensure we protect our ( personal & collective ) future needs .

***********
Not bad - timeshare ownership - Provincial / Canada Healthcare - Covid 19 - SAH request 
all in one post .

Hope a moderator likes my creative TUG focused thoughts.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> The education requirements before one can become a doctor from the website Study.com:
> 
> The requirements for becoming a doctor in the U.S. may vary by specialty. In general, doctors complete a 4-year undergraduate degree program, spend 4 years in medical school, and then complete 3-7 years of residency training before they are eligible for medical licensing.
> 
> And, then once they start their residency and practice, they gain the experience along with continuing education requirements. Imho, that is substantially more, not a little more.



Yes, doctors know more about medicine than lay people. That was not my point.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I would like to compare Sweden with the province of Quebec, Canada.
> 
> Quebec has had very strict rules including closed restaurants, bars, schools, parks, all non-essential businesses and has given tickets to enforce the rules when necessary. According to Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, Quebec has one of the highest rates of compliance in North America and people did stay home during the past month as requested.
> 
> ...



Although Sweden doesn't have restrictions, what proof is there that the citizens are not already abiding by SIP and social distancing? Perhaps they are a very self-disciplined society.

Second, Canada has a lot of Chinese immigration. There may have been more links to Wuhan bringing virus into the country than Sweden.

IMHO there could be much more behind this data to explain the difference.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 26, 2020)

Can you see how that statement may have taken away from your point? 

For some reason, many people are wanting to discount what the doctors and scientists are telling us about covid-19 and the potential treatments and vaccines that are under study. I felt that statement belittled the education, training and experience of the medical professionals that are on the front lines battling this disease. I’m glad to hear that was not your point.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Although Sweden doesn't have restrictions, what proof is there that the citizens are not already abiding by SIP and social distancing? Perhaps they are a very self-disciplined society.
> 
> Second, Canada has a lot of Chinese immigration. There may have been more links to Wuhan bringing virus into the country than Sweden.
> 
> IMHO there might is more behind this data to explain the difference.



No Sweden is not all that much better than we are at social distancing. I have read many articles and they keep threatening to shut down businesses if they do not adhere. I have seen many photos and people are not staying that far away from each other. Sweden just has a different model and philosophy.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> No Sweden is not all that much better than we are at social distancing. I have read many articles and they keep threatening to shut down businesses if they do not adhere. I have seen many photos and people are not staying that far away from each other. Sweden just has a different model and philosophy.



My point is that I would like to see more hard facts than anecdotal evidence. California is doing relatively well on SIP. However if you look at the photos of the beaches you might think no one in the entire state is abiding by SIP. Which is not true.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Can you see how that statement may have taken away from your point?
> 
> For some reason, many people are wanting to discount what the doctors and scientists are telling us about covid-19 and the potential treatments and vaccines that are under study. I felt that statement belittled the education, training and experience of the medical professionals that are on the front lines battling this disease. I’m glad to hear that was not your point.



Doctors are not mini-Gods. I work in the healthcare field and we get many referrals from doctors when they can’t figure out what is wrong with their patients. Through my experience, I have lost a bit of trust in doctors. Many patients get frustrated with their doctors when they can‘t figure out what is wrong. It makes me really frustrated because then I am stuck trying to figure it out for the doctors.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> My point is that I would like to see more hard facts than anecdotal evidence. California is doing relatively well on SIP. However if you look at the photos of the beaches you might think no one in the entire state is abiding by SiP.



Good point. Based on their social distancing rules and lack of mandatory shut downs, they are a lot more lenient than California. I assume some people are good at social distancing and some aren’t. Here in California, I think people are pretty good at social distancing and following SIP. I wish we could have had the same social distancing rules as Sweden and no business shut downs. They say Sweden is still having economic problems so many businesses are losing money too but it is something like a 28% decline vs a 65% decline in neighboring countries. (note : I am quoting these stats from memory so the exact numbers may be wrong but they are in the ballpark)


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Apr 26, 2020)

[QUOTE="CalGalTraveler, post: 2436567, member: 79547
Second, Canada has a lot of Chinese immigration. There may have been more links to Wuhan bringing virus into the country than Sweden.
IMHO there might is more behind this data to explain the difference.
[/QUOTE]

***********
Quebec has a lot of cases that are connected to nursing homes - both workers and residents .

Total Covid 19 deaths in Quebec - 1515  -  (as of April 24 2020) 
over 60% are nursing home related.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Doctors are not mini-Gods. I work in the healthcare field and we get many referrals from doctors when they can’t figure out what is wrong with their patients. Through my experience, I have lost a bit of trust in doctors. Many patients get frustrated with their doctors when they can‘t figure out what is wrong. It makes me really frustrated because then I am stuck trying to figure it out for the doctors.


I understand that point and sympathize with it. I have a nephew who had stomach cancer that was misdiagnosed for several months so I know it happens. But, I still go to a doctor with my medical problems, not some random individual in the neighborhood that is more than willing to give me his medical opinion. Doctors don’t know everything and sometimes they get it wrong. After all, as you said, they are human. But, they still know a lot more than someone who has no medical training but has lots of opinions.


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Apr 26, 2020)

[QUOTE="TravelTime, post: 2436580, member: 105071 
....I work in the healthcare field and we get many referrals from doctors when they can’tThrough my experience, I have lost a bit of trust in doctors. Many patients get frustrated with their doctors when they can‘t figure out what is wrong. It makes me really frustrated because then I am stuck trying to figure it out for the doctors.
[/QUOTE]

everyone has their Silos - some get stuck in them and can’t think beyond their limited expertise .


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> I understand that point and sympathize with it. I have a nephew who had stomach cancer that was misdiagnosed for several months so I know it happens. But, I still go to a doctor with my medical problems, not some random individual in the neighborhood that is more than willing to give me his medical opinion. Doctors don’t know everything and sometimes they get it wrong. After all, as you said, they are human. But, they still know a lot more than someone who has no medical training but has lots of opinions.



Yes I already agreed with this. I think doctors are excellent when they know what is wrong and have the specialized technical experience to solve it. Right now with Covid, many doctors do not know too much more than the rest of us. I have a patient right now with suspected Covid and his doctor can‘t provide the answers he needs about what is wrong, when he will get better, even if he really has it. My patient is very frustrated and consults with other doctors but he says no one knows. OTOH, I have had excellent surgeons for various procedures and the doctors knew exactly what to do because of their technical expertise. If something is standardized and the doctor has the training, then they are usually excellent. Now I forgot why we originally started talking about doctors. LOL


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

[QUOTE="T-Dot-Traveller, post: 2436589, member: 82356 So 
[QUOTE="CalGalTraveler, post: 2436567, member: 79547
Second, Canada has a lot of Chinese immigration. There may have been more links to Wuhan bringing virus into the country than Sweden.
IMHO there might is more behind this data to explain the difference.
[/QUOTE]

***********
Quebec has a lot of cases that are connected to nursing homes - both workers and residents .

Total Covid 19 deaths in Quebec - 1515  -  (as of April 24 2020)
over 60% are nursing home related.
[/QUOTE]
Due to French, Quebec has a very small population of Chinese descent, about 1%. For comparison, Ontario has 4%, British Columbia 10%. So it cannot be that. 
Sweden also has over 50% of the reported death in the nursing homes.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> [QUOTE="T-Dot-Traveller, post: 2436589, member: 82356 So
> [QUOTE="CalGalTraveler, post: 2436567, member: 79547
> Second, Canada has a lot of Chinese immigration. There may have been more links to Wuhan bringing virus into the country than Sweden.
> IMHO there might is more behind this data to explain the difference.




I read about half the deaths in NY are in nursing homes too.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> What is scaring the shit out of me are these reports of young people who are barely sick with COVID-19 having strokes.
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
> 
> ...



What is the entire symptom set of COVID-19? I read that autopsies of advanced fatal cases show heart damage, a build-up of iron in the lungs (probably from iron sucked out of red blood cells), and signs of blood clots in the body.

Now this may be ancedotal (not enough autopsies to be statistically relevant), however, it is consistent with the appearance of stroke cases. (What the level of existing arteriosclerosis in the victim was not described. Still, one can have a stroke from a large blood clot, without any sign of arteriosclerosis.) It is also consistent with the heart problems ascribed to hydroxychloroquinone, if given in the late stages of COVID-19. (Aggravating the existing heart damage from the COVID-19 virus, or just getting the blame. . . )

I mention this about hydroxychloroquinone, because if it is as dangerous as portrayed, why didn't these problem show up over the years? It has been used for decades for treatment of lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, with no history of large number of side effects.


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Apr 26, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Second, Canada has a lot of Chinese immigration. There may have been more links to Wuhan bringing virus into the country than Sweden.



In Ontario - some of our earliest cases. (Feb) were folks returning from the Wuhan area after visiting family.
Those folks tended to self isolate upon return & were smart enough to call the doctor / hospital  if fever symptoms 
started - rather then go and infect others .

The next group of Ontario cases tended to be people returning from family visits to Iran and Italy . Again most used caution and while those in their household may have gotten Covid 19 - community transmission was minimal,

Currently : 
Ontario Covid deaths 835  -   (April 26- 2020) Population - 14 .6 million 
Canada Covid deaths 2560   ( April 26 - 2020)  Population -  37.6 million

*******
Canada got lucky on something’s (IMO)
1) - not a lot of incoming visitors in January (winter) 
and winter tends to be a time when many people here are less social 
(  cold weather  - stay home more often & hibernate ) .

2) outgoing vacationers in Jan -Feb often go to ~ Mexico / Cuba/ Dominican Republic 
locations that were not hot zones at that point .

3) Provinces moved to restrictions before public transmission was common place here
( ie - when it was apparent NYC was a hot spot - not just China - Iran - Italy -Spain .

4 ) Provinces and Federal government are working together in a Team Canada concept -
{inspired by past Olympic successes.in certain venues .}

Canada has not done a great job preventing nursing home deaths or the spread of Covid 19 
into meat processing plants .

Testing is not yet sufficient to easily reopen closed functions . The risk to provincially run healthcare 
- IS A STRONG COUNTER BALANCE - to scientifically unqualified re-openings .


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 26, 2020)

Maybe it’s because the doctors knew the potential side effects and their patients potential risks and they either didn’t prescribe it to those patients they believed were most at risk or they prescribed lower dosages than would be required to fight covid-19.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Forget it.  I feel like I am getting beat up every time I post something.
> 
> You can have your thoughts and data and I can have my fears and "anecdotal evidence".   I guess doctors don't qualify as scientific advice any longer.




Yes I gave up too.  People claim you are in a big conspiracy with the WHO, China, CDC, almost all epidemioligists, scientists,   the government, the liberal media, hospitals, and the whole medical profession to destroy America by asking them to stay at home.    I gave up when I was accused of rooting for a big body count because I questioned that the deaths were being over reported (note conspiracy theory).


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Yes I gave up too.  People claim you are in a big conspiracy with the WHO, China, CDC, almost all epidemioligists, scientists,   the government, the liberal media, hospitals, and the whole medical profession to destroy America by asking them to stay at home.    I gave up when I was accused of rooting for a big body count because I questioned that the deaths were being over reported (note conspiracy theory).


in case you missed it:


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 26, 2020)

This cartoon reminded me of the arguments going on here:





Kurt


----------



## bluehende (Apr 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> in case you missed it:


Wow you found someone with an opinion on a talking head political show.  What does the CDC say about this topic??????  I will listen to them.  You do know he is an MD specializing in nutrition right.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 26, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Maybe it’s because the doctors knew the potential side effects and their patients potential risks and they either didn’t prescribe it to those patients they believed were most at risk or they prescribed lower dosages than would be required to fight covid-19.



If trials are being stopped for 10+% fatality rates, why wasn't that seen in lupus and rheumatoid arthritis prescriptions? And how would they know who was "at risk"? Any drug with that level of potential risk would have been banned decades ago.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

bluehende said:


> What does the CDC say about this topic??????


About what topic? There were several covered in the interview.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> About what topic? There were several covered in the interview.


Any  I will listen to them over a nutritionalist on any of them.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Any  I will listen to them over a nutritionalist on any of them.


So I assume you did not watch the interview.  
He has a very solid resume but you make him sound like a street food vendor. In case you did not know, a lot of states are relaxing the measures so up to a point CDC does concur.

You did not tell me though why you do not think that isolating the vulnerable and opening the economy for everyone else while respecting social distancing is a good idea.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> So I assume you did not watch the interview.
> He has a very solid resume but you make him sound like a street food vendor. In case you did not know, a lot of states are relaxing the measures so up to a point CDC does concur.
> 
> You did not tell me though why you do not think that isolating the vulnerable and opening the economy for everyone else while respecting social distancing is a good idea.


I watched it friday....so wrong again

and which state has had 14 days of declining numbers again.

And your next reply will be the last word.  I directed nothing to you so not sure why you had to start another argument.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 26, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I watched it friday....so wrong again
> 
> and which state has had 14 days of declining numbers again.
> 
> And your next reply will be the last word.  I directed nothing to you so not sure why you had to start another argument.


my question was: "You did not tell me though why you do not think that isolating the vulnerable and opening the economy for everyone else while respecting social distancing is a good idea."
I am unsure why telling us what you think about it is starting of an argument. 

*David L. Katz* (born 20 February 1963)[_citation needed_] is an American physician and former director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center that was founded at Griffin Hospital in Derby, Connecticut in 1998 
Previously, Katz was a clinical instructor in medicine at the Yale School of Medicine. [2]Katz formerly served as associate director for nutrition science at the Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity at Yale,[_citation needed_] following his appointment in 2005. Katz has authored over 100 scientific papers[_citation needed_] and written numerous newspaper and magazine articles, including a recurring column in O starting in March 2002 and later discontinued. In 2000, Katz founded the Integrative Medicine Center at Griffin,[_citation needed_] which ceased operating in November 2014. 
Katz received a BA degree from Dartmouth College, an MD degree from the Albert Einstein College of Medicine, and an MPH degree from Yale School of Public Health. He is board certified in preventive medicine.[7]




Alma materDartmouth College (BA, 1984)
Albert Einstein College of Medicine (MD, 1988)
Yale School of Public Health (MPH, 1993)


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Apr 27, 2020)

Parts of this thread turned into a Sunday evening Covid hot spot
LOL


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Apr 27, 2020)

T-Dot-Traveller said:


> In Ontario -........Currently :
> Ontario Covid deaths 835  -   (April 26- 2020) Population - 14 .6 million
> Canada Covid deaths 2560   ( April 26 - 2020)  Population -  37.6 million
> 
> ...



From news reports I read this evening - it appears that over 700 of Ontario’s deaths so far from Covid 19, 
have been from spread  within - nursing homes - long term care homes - senior residences .(Toronto Star articles )

Quebec has reported many deaths in similar circumstances.

British Columbia had  Canada’s first large cluster of public transmission and deaths in a seniors residence .
That event was close to 60 days ago.

Very sad


----------



## davidvel (Apr 27, 2020)

T-Dot-Traveller said:


> From news reports I read this evening - it appears that over 700 of Ontario’s deaths so far. from Covid 19
> have been from spread  within - nursing homes - long term care homes - senior residences .(Toronto Star articles )
> 
> Quebec has reported many deaths in similar circumstances.
> ...


Yes, this has been the case since this all started. Nearly all (90+%) of deaths are those who are old and some form of institutional care.


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 27, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> I mention this about hydroxychloroquinone, because if it is as dangerous as portrayed, why didn't these problem show up over the years? It has been used for decades for treatment of lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, with no history of large number of side effects.


It appears it was dosage mostly-the "trials" were shots in the dark anyway. And the RA and Lupus patients are closely monitored.

The blood clot in young people has had a paper published that was peer reviewed. It is known that illness can bring on clots anyway; the CV19 ones appear to be more alarming at this point due to how fast they form, and they are forming in BOTH veins and arteries. One of the symptoms of more severe disease is the clotting factors go nutso. It wasn't known before that this also can happen in mild cases as well. One of the articles also mentioned that at one of the hospitals the 5 (? think it was 5 patients? may have been 7) young people who had strokes also waited to seek care-due to fright over "catching" CV19.  Strokes do have a protocol for treatment and are very successful if started within a certain time period (within hours-3? 6?) so waiting to seek care may have worsened the stroke too.


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Apr 27, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Yes, this has been the case since this all started.........


prior reports did indicate outbreaks and deaths in long term care facilities in Ontario , Canada ; but if a patient was moved to a hospital and later died - it would not be specifically noted . The Toronto Star did extensive tracking and published data on Thurs. April 22 .On the weekend this data was basically confirmed by the ministry that regulates all long term care homes . Individuals information is private but the regulatory numbers would be public (sooner or later)
{ I only read this last night (Sun. April 26)}


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 27, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> If trials are being stopped for 10+% fatality rates, why wasn't that seen in lupus and rheumatoid arthritis prescriptions? And how would they know who was "at risk"? Any drug with that level of potential risk would have been banned decades ago.


And if anyone is wanting to go into the medical profession, they can save a lot of money. Instead of spending it on an 7-8 years of college and 3 years of residency, they can just come here and get expert advice from you. they don’t need no stinkin’ education and training.


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 27, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> And if anyone is wanting to go into the medical profession, they can save a lot of money. Instead of spending it on an 7-8 years of college and 3 years of residency, they can just come here and get expert advice from you. they don’t need no stinkin’ education and training.



_Sarcasm is the lowest form of humor but the highest form of flattery._
Benjamin Franklin


----------



## geist1223 (Apr 27, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> And if anyone is wanting to go into the medical profession, they can save a lot of money. Instead of spending it on an 7-8 years of college and 3 years of residency, they can just come here and get expert advice from you. they don’t need no stinkin’ education and training.



Can we knock off the personal attacks.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 27, 2020)

Yes there are way too many personal attacks on this thread by numerous posters. Stick to expressing your personal opinions in a respectful way.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 27, 2020)

For those who may be interested, I have a degree in micro/molecular biology. I have studied - virology, pathogenic microbiology, epidemiology, immunology, microbial ecology, mammalian physiology at molecular level, multiple courses in biochemistry, and histology (with a little statistics thrown in). I make a living as a computer programmer, because that paid better. I try to keep as current as I can in molecular biology -  intellectual curiosity.

I am not an M.D. and there are vast parts of medicine I have no opinion on. But on infectious diseases and their physiology, I know enough to ask meaningful questions and have opinions. And I look up the raw papers and read them. (and yes, I can read the language.)

And most importantly, I know how little we really know about COV-19, and how it attacks the human body.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 27, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> For those who may be interested, I have a degree in micro/molecular biology. I have studied - virology, pathogenic microbiology, epidemiology, immunology, microbial ecology, mammalian physiology at molecular level, multiple courses in biochemistry, and histology (with a little statistics thrown in). I make a living as a computer programmer, because that paid better. I try to keep as current as I can in molecular biology -  intellectual curiosity.
> 
> I am not an M.D. and there are vast parts of medicine I have no opinion on. But on infectious diseases and their physiology, I know enough to ask meaningful questions and have opinions. And I look up the raw papers and read them. (and yes, I can read the language.)
> 
> And most importantly, I know how little we really know about COV-19, and how it attacks the human body.


Thank you, for your intellectual honesty. You are not alone we are all slowly gathering needed data and learning best practices as we go.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 27, 2020)

Cuomo estimates that 24.7% of NYC has already had Covid 19. The number actually went up from last week when it was 21.2%


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 27, 2020)

Hi Danny, I appreciate your posts as I find them informative. But I do not think most Tuggers want to hear this stuff.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 29, 2020)

*Stocks soar after positive Gilead news on potential coronavirus treatment, Dow up 500 points*










						Stocks jump 2%, putting the S&P 500 on track for its best month since 1974
					

Stocks jumped on positive data from a potential coronavirus treatment from Gilead Sciences while investors digested a sharp drop in U.S. economic activity.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 29, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> *Stocks soar after positive Gilead news on potential coronavirus treatment, Dow up 500 points*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Tread carefully Danny. Coronavirus a/k/a Covid-19 has become a sensitive issue here. There is additional information out there regarding this treatment though.


----------



## x3 skier (Apr 29, 2020)

I notice that the Drs Erickson and Massih interview was removed from YouTube for "Violating the terms of Service". I watched it before it vanished and am clueless what terms they violated.  I thought it was an interview by reporters.

Cheers


----------



## SmithOp (Apr 29, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> I notice that the Drs Erickson and Massih interview was removed from YouTube for "Violating the terms of Service". I watched it before it vanished and am clueless what terms they violated. I thought it was an interview by reporters.
> 
> Cheers



maybe the news service the reporters work for have exclusive rights to broadcast it.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 29, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> I notice that the Drs Erickson and Massih interview was removed from YouTube for "Violating the terms of Service". I watched it before it vanished and am clueless what terms they violated.  I thought it was an interview by reporters.
> 
> Cheers


we have to listen to the medical professionals... but only those that support a certain narrative 

I


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Apr 29, 2020)

Yes, the powers that be are taking down various interviews by professionals because it doesn't fit the narrative they desire.  It's a violation of the 1st Amendment.  

But of course I know there are people who think we should all stay in our homes for 18 months.


----------



## Brett (Apr 29, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> Yes, the powers that be are taking down various interviews by professionals because it doesn't fit the narrative they desire.  It's a violation of the 1st Amendment.
> 
> But of course I know there are people who think we should all stay in our homes for 18 months.



Of course.  
If there was only some way to change the "powers that be"  .....


----------



## SmithOp (Apr 29, 2020)

Shoddy statistics and false claims: Dr. Erickson dangerously misled the public on coronavirus
					

By now, you have likely seen the viral video of two doctors in Bakersfield, California (Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi) holding their own press briefing in which they argued that COVID19 is no dead…




					thelogicofscience.com
				




Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 29, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> Shoddy statistics and false claims: Dr. Erickson dangerously misled the public on coronavirus
> 
> 
> By now, you have likely seen the viral video of two doctors in Bakersfield, California (Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi) holding their own press briefing in which they argued that COVID19 is no dead…
> ...



You can always find pros and cons opinions about a lot of things. Suffice to say, in this case, only one side is censured and the other side can control the narrative. The article you posted has a lot of holes in it but people will not be able to listen to the other side  to compare. This is the modern version of burning books.


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 29, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> You can always find pros and cons opinions about a lot of things. Suffice to say, in this case, only one side is censured and the other side can control the narrative. The article you posted has a lot of holes in it but people will not be able to listen to the other side  to compare. This is the modern version of burning books.


Simply look around you. The only side that matters is the one that fits their agenda. When you're on their stage you will play by their rules.


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 29, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> You can always find pros and cons opinions about a lot of things. Suffice to say, in this case, only one side is censured and the other side can control the narrative. The article you posted has a lot of holes in it but people will not be able to listen to the other side  to compare. This is the modern version of burning books.


"You can carry COVID for roughly 2 weeks without symptoms. So, if you are out and about, you are spreading that everywhere". That is actually wrong-it can take up to 14 days to show symptoms with most infectious 1-2 days prior and by day 5 of symptoms rapidly become less infectious-per the studies (mild/moderate). It does not mean you are highly infectious for 14 days "spreading it everywhere" And we are are acting like we are 100% infectious, 100% of the time, with NO end ever. IF we are that infectious ALL the time then it's likely that a vast majority of the population has been exposed-lockdown or not. This sight also has his own agenda he wants to push. But it IS good to hear points/counterpoints for sure!


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## Ken555 (Apr 29, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> Shoddy statistics and false claims: Dr. Erickson dangerously misled the public on coronavirus
> 
> 
> By now, you have likely seen the viral video of two doctors in Bakersfield, California (Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi) holding their own press briefing in which they argued that COVID19 is no dead…
> ...



It's nice to see a critical review of their performance. Of course, many people will believe whatever they want, evidence notwithstanding.


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## WVBaker (Apr 29, 2020)

Huckabee says YouTube must answer for pulling down doctors' video: 'Something is wrong with that'









						Huckabee says YouTube must answer for pulling down doctors' video: 'Something is wrong with that'
					

YouTube must answer for pulling down the video of two California doctors and their "selective content," former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee urged Wednesday.




					www.foxnews.com


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## DannyTS (Apr 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> It's nice to see a critical review of their performance. Of course, many people will believe whatever they want, evidence notwithstanding.


it is reassuring the article has not been banned, even if contains a long list of misinformation and half truths


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 29, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> it is reassuring the article has not been banned, even if contains a long list of misinformation and half truths



Of course they do. We still are learning about the virus and its interactions. Because of that, all discussions will contain misinformation and half-truths.

It's part of the learning curve.


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## Ken555 (Apr 29, 2020)

*Pseudoscience and COVID-19 — we’ve had enough already*
The scientific community must take up cudgels in the battle against bunk.









						Pseudoscience and COVID-19 — we’ve had enough already
					

The scientific community must take up cudgels in the battle against bunk.




					www.nature.com


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## Old Hickory (Apr 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> It's nice to see a critical review of their performance. Of course, many people will believe whatever they want, evidence notwithstanding.



Does anyone know who is providing this critical review?    The linked site is an anonymous blog.   The anonymous blogger calls himself Fallacy Man which is a moniker taken from an online (not syndicated) comic strip.   

I'm not supporting any side in this.  I'm simply curious about the source who provided a critical review of their (doctors) performance.


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## Ken555 (Apr 29, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> Does anyone know who is providing this critical review?    The linked site is an anonymous blog.   The anonymous blogger calls himself Fallacy Man which is a moniker taken from an online (not syndicated) comic strip.
> 
> I'm not supporting any side in this.  I'm simply curious about the source who provided a critical review of their (doctors) performance.



Good question. I don't, but his site has this info about him:



> *About me*
> 
> Because of the vitriol and ad hominem assaults that tend to get hurled at people who take a public stand on these issues, I am disinclined to post much in the way of person details. So I will simply summarize by stating that I have a B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. in biology, and I am currently a post-doctoral researcher at a university. I have over a decade of research experience, and I have published multiple peer-reviewed papers, served as a reviewer for many journals, and presented my research at national, professional conferences. Additionally, I have taught biology as an adjunct professor at a local college, as well as helping to teach multiple courses during my Ph.D. My research combines ecology and molecular tools (e.g., population genetics and microbiome sequencing) to address issues in wildlife conservation, particularly the conservation of reptiles and amphibians. Thus, depending on what level you were describing my research at, I could be accurately described as a herpetologist, zoologist, conservation biologist, ecologist, or population geneticist. Really though, all that you need to know about me is that I prize logical thought and a careful, rational understanding of the world around us above all else, and this blog is my attempt help people understand both logic and science.
> 
> Note: the pseudonym under which I am writing this blog (i.e., Fallacy Man) is a moniker that I adopted based on a character in the hilarious and educational online comic strip, Existential Comics.


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## DannyTS (Apr 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Good question. I don't, but his site has this info about him:


still anonymous and full of misinformation. I will take the word of 2 ER doctors with a name and a face over a comic strip character any time of the day.


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## Ken555 (Apr 29, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> still anonymous and full of misinformation. I will take the word of 2 ER doctors with a name and a face over a comic strip character any time of the day.



I’m sure you would. I tend to evaluate authenticity by other standards, such as does the argument make sense. I suppose you don’t think these ER docs vested financial interest in reopening has anything to do with their opinion?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## HitchHiker71 (Apr 29, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Cuomo estimates that 24.7% of NYC has already had Covid 19. The number actually went up from last week when it was 21.2%
> 
> 
> View attachment 19765



This data is very interesting to me when we compare it against current hospitalization and mortality rates, as compared to confirmed cases:





NYC Population:  ~8.5MM (8.4MM in 2018)

Hospitalization rate by Confirmed Cases:  25.8%
Mortality rate by Confirmed Cases:  11% (includes probable deaths)
Mortality rate by Confirmed Cases:  7.6% (excluding probable deaths)

Infections by Antibody Estimates:  2,193,000
Hospitalization rate by Antibody Estimates:  1.8%
Mortality Rate by Antibody Estimates:  0.8% (includes probable deaths)
Mortality Rate by Antibody Estimates:  0.56% (excludes probable deaths)

This was all back of the napkin math so please excuse any miscalculations. 

Granted the data is extrapolated in nature and needs to be peer reviewed and confirmed, but this type of data is paramount to forming a path forward for risk mitigation and balancing economic welfare and recovery vs safety moving forward.  The mortality rates are still 5-8x higher than the typical flu mortality rates at 0.1%, so we can't just turn everything back on overnight.  That said, the current primarily "all or nothing" lockdown approach simply isn't sustainable over the long term - so it is data like this that will allow the feds and the state government agencies to make better informed decisions as we look forward.  The data Cuomo is displaying also shows that hotspots like NYC are much further along the curve toward herd immunity than NY state as a whole, at 25.8% vs only 3.2%.  So most of the U.S. states that aren't as far along as NYC will be better equipped with data like this to determine the best paths forward.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 29, 2020)

The question is - how many false positives are actually in the antibody test results, and how random are they? We really don't know, despite claims to the contrary.

Let me give a hard number example. New York versus Florida.

Florida is slightly more populous, and has a higher percent of "at risk" populations (older people, minorities).

Yet (as of a few days ago), the death rate for Florida ascribed to COVID-19 is 5% of the death rate ascribed to COVID-19 in New York, per 100,000 residents. 

Why?

(Different measurement standards? Different weather? Different implemented quarantine standards?) 

Finding out the why would be critical to determining how, and how much to release the quarantine.


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## Old Hickory (Apr 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I tend to evaluate authenticity by other standards, such as does the argument make sense.



That's called _confirmation bias _and we all have it at times.   But it's important to know when you're being consumed by it.


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## Monykalyn (Apr 29, 2020)

I know part of the reason I'm frustrated with things is summed up in this opinion piece-We simply do NOT have the strong evidenced based leadership we truly need right now.








						We need the real CDC back, and we need it now
					

This must be a painful time for the many extraordinary career scientists who continue to work at the CDC. Real CDC leadership is absolutely essential for confronting and getting clear of this crisis.




					www.statnews.com


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 29, 2020)

Here's a near current (a few days ago) video on the blood clot aspect of COVID-19. 

It's a mid-level discussion.


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## Conan (Apr 29, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Here's a near current (a few days ago) video on the blood clot aspect of COVID-19.


Not my area, but I learned a lot first watching, then Googling.

I found an article that pulls together the "happy hypoxics" mentioned near the end of the talk--and why everyone who can get one should keep a pulse oximeter handy. Amazon link:  https://amzn.to/3bQExTY





						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org


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## DannyTS (Apr 30, 2020)

*Coronavirus crisis could lead to 18,000 more cancer deaths, experts warn*
Analysis models impact over next year of delays in getting diagnosis and treatment.











						Extra 18,000 cancer patients in England could die in next year – study
					

Analysis shows potential impact of delays in seeking diagnosis and receiving treatment




					www.theguardian.com
				





*Professor Warns Cancer Deaths Due to COVID Disruption Will Be Greater Than Deaths From Coronavirus*










						Professor Warns Cancer Deaths Due to COVID Disruption Will Be Greater Than Deaths From Coronavirus
					

400 cancers a week being missed because people are not getting hospital treatment.



					summit.news


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## DannyTS (Apr 30, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I’m sure you would. I tend to evaluate authenticity by other standards, such as does the argument make sense. I suppose you don’t think these ER docs vested financial interest in reopening has anything to do with their opinion?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


When I suggested that because of the lockdown Jeff Bezos's net worth increased by 24 billion $ and that Washington post has an obvious vested interest some did not like it. Many others may have economic, ideological or political motives for the lockdown to continue. There are a lot of counter current interests in this matter and this is why news has to circulate freely and one side should not be censored, people can make up their minds by reading both sides. 

In the end you can evaluate any way you want. But I still have to note that the 2 ER doctors have put their reputation in line and would take their medical advice any time of the day vs the anonymous blog you linked to.


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## davidvel (Apr 30, 2020)

And now Facebook is censoring pages that discuss protests, because they have decided they can't protest. It's  Orwell's 1984. Facebook and YouTube have become the Ministry of Truth.


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## SmithOp (Apr 30, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In the end you can evaluate any way you want. But I still have to note that the 2 ER doctors have put their reputation in line and would take their medical advice any time of the day vs the anonymous blog you linked to.



Ken did not link the blog, I did. I posted it because X3 Skier was wondering why the ER Doctors video was taken off YouTube.  It seemed relevant.

We are all free to evaulate using whatever facts or opinions we want to. I’m still divided between mandating SIP vs opening up and relying on Herd Immunity. I’m not opposed to opening the economy back up now May 1st, but personally because of my age and health I prefer to SIP.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## Ken555 (Apr 30, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> When I suggested that because of the lockdown Jeff Bezos's net worth increased by 24 billion $ and that Washington post has an obvious vested interest some did not like it. Many others may have economic, ideological or political motives for the lockdown to continue. There are a lot of counter current interests in this matter and this is why news has to circulate freely and one side should not be censored, people can make up their minds by reading both sides.



Only when both sides are credible. These guys from Bakersfield splashed over social media as news, and then there was almost immediate backlash from experts and more. This is not what happened when The Washington Post posted the articles you complained about. 

Instead, you complain about *any* article from The Washington Post or, if memory serves, The New York Times. Of course, the Post is an easy target and is a target by many others so it’s not surprising that you are repeating what you hear and read in certain publications.

I would suggest there is a fundamental difference between a billionaire who adds, or loses, billions on a regular basis vs two guys from Bakersfield who are probably struggling to keep their business alive. I don’t think it’s appropriate to compare the two. I’m not saying either position is good, but just that they’re hard to compare.



> In the end you can evaluate any way you want. But I still have to note that the 2 ER doctors have put their reputation in line and would take their medical advice any time of the day vs the anonymous blog you linked to.



Well, I won’t be asking you for a referral any time soon! 

And yeah, I didn’t post that anonymous article. I just commented on it. And based on my read of it, it just makes sense. Of course, I wouldn’t make any decisions based on it alone, and would want confirmation by others, since I’m not a virologist...oh, and neither are those guys from Bakersfield.


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## IngridN (Apr 30, 2020)

*ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation*
Joint Statement issued on April 27, 2020:


> The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.
> 
> COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making.





> https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-19...7iTUT-hy9R2NW4


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## DannyTS (Apr 30, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Only when both sides are credible. These guys from Bakersfield splashed over social media as news, and then there was almost immediate backlash from experts and more. This is not what happened when The Washington Post posted the articles you complained about.
> 
> Instead, you complain about *any* article from The Washington Post or, if memory serves, The New York Times. Of course, the Post is an easy target and is a target by many others so it’s not surprising that you are repeating what you hear and read in certain publications.
> 
> ...


Many WP articles have been proven false after a day, a week or a year.  It is ridiculous to choke news just because one side does not like it.

@IngridN  I am not surprised by the ACEP's statement since it has to be the official narrative and the official narrative only, right? The most troubling part of their statement is that is  referring to the doctors' presumed motivation, so the association must have been living in their heads, and must know! They are basically claiming others should not comment about this but the association itself can speculate about their motivation.
If anyone knows anything about ANY professional association and the way the decisions are taken, they rarely represent the views of all the members, rarely represent the views of a majority of their members, sometimes they do not represent the views of any members.


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## Ken555 (Apr 30, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Many WP articles have been proven false after a day, a week or a year. It is ridiculous to choke news just because one side does not like it.



Not what I said.

I think my issue with these posts is that you suggest that they may be accurate, then defend them against more reputable sources. Perhaps if you simply suggested that it’s worth reviewing another perspective you will gain more traction here. Of course, I may still laugh and ridicule absurd posts that are obviously biased, as you will, but at least then they won’t be given as fact.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Apr 30, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Not what I said.
> 
> I think my issue with these posts is that you suggest that they may be accurate, then defend them against more reputable sources. Perhaps if you simply suggested that it’s worth reviewing another perspective you will gain more traction here. Of course, I may still laugh and ridicule absurd posts that are obviously biased, as you will, but at least then they won’t be given as fact.
> 
> ...


you just cannot keep it impersonal, can you? The more reputable source, in this case was an anonymous blog. This is ridiculous.


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## Ken555 (Apr 30, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> you just cannot keep it impersonal, can you? The more reputable source, in this case was an anonymous blog. This is ridiculous.



You misquote me, then complain when I’m trying to be constructive. Whatever. 


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## Makai Guy (Apr 30, 2020)

Okay.  Gonna have to find a different thread to bicker in.


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