# Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.



## TravelTime (Jun 24, 2020)

Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.
For 33 states, increases are noted in their seven-day average of new infections









						Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.
					

Covid-19 cases are accelerating around the country, reaching new daily highs in states including Texas and Arizona and spurring concerns about prospects for an economic and social revival.




					www.wsj.com
				








Covid-19 cases are accelerating around the country, reaching new daily highs in states including Texas and Arizona and spurring concerns about prospects for an economic and social revival.

Thirty-three states, from Oklahoma to South Carolina and Washington, had a seven-day average of new cases on Tuesday that was higher than their average during the past two weeks, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. That was the situation in 21 states at the start of the month, so the data reflect recent increases in new cases.....Click on article link about for more information.


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## Brett (Jun 24, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.
> For 33 states, increases are noted in their seven-day average of new infections
> 
> 
> ...




might as well add North Carolina to the list
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article243760267.html


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## Luanne (Jun 24, 2020)

When I look at the maps showing where cases are rising I feel like we are in a little bubble here in New Mexico.  We supposedly have a 14 days quarantine, but only for those flying in.  People can drive in from Texas and Arizona with no problems. So many Texans in the state right now.  So many Texans, not wearing masks.


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## Monykalyn (Jun 24, 2020)

Luanne said:


> When I look at the maps showing where cases are rising I feel like we are in a little bubble here in New Mexico.  We supposedly have a 14 days quarantine, but only for those flying in.  People can drive in from Texas and Arizona with no problems. So many Texans in the state right now.  So many Texans, not wearing masks.


A huge number of the Texas "spike" is from mass testing and finally reporting results of prisons-where a large majority of the new cases are coming from. That and packing plants are clusters that get counted and suddenly recorded.  As big as Texas is, with as high a prison population it's not surprising really.

But what the heck is happening in Arizona??


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## mdditt2000 (Jun 24, 2020)

Was in Scottsdale last week for vacation. I was the only person wearing a mask. I think people simply forgot about Covid. Now it’s a wake up call, hopefully AZ gets these numbers under control.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## "Roger" (Jun 24, 2020)

Texas governor might add more COVID-19 restrictions
					

"We are looking at greater restrictions," Governor Greg Abbott said Wednesday, after initially saying this would be a last resort.




					news.yahoo.com
				











						U.S. Sets Record for Daily New Cases as Virus Surges in South and West (Published 2020)
					

Public health officials in the United States reported 36,880 new cases on Wednesday. Houston’s intensive-care units are running out of available beds, the mayor said.




					www.nytimes.com


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## bluehende (Jun 24, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> A huge number of the Texas "spike" is from mass testing and finally reporting results of prisons-where a large majority of the new cases are coming from. That and packing plants are clusters that get counted and suddenly recorded.  As big as Texas is, with as high a prison population it's not surprising really.
> 
> But what the heck is happening in Arizona??


Do you have any data to back up mass testing.  If that were the case the positivity rate would go down or stay the same.  In fact it has gone from 4 to 10.4 % over the last few weeks.  Here is my source...the texas department of health.






						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					txdshs.maps.arcgis.com
				




then go to the positive rate tab at the bottom


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## Monykalyn (Jun 24, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> Texas governor might add more COVID-19 restrictions
> 
> 
> "We are looking at greater restrictions," Governor Greg Abbott said Wednesday, after initially saying this would be a last resort.
> ...











						This dashboard tracks the daily hospital capacity for general, ICU beds in the Houston area
					

As Texas continues to reopen, many areas, including the greater Houston area, have seen a slow climb in the number of new coronavirus cases reported each day and coronavirus-related hospitalizations. Since Memorial Day, the state has also seen increases in the number of people testing positive...




					www.click2houston.com
				




Hospital tracker and it actually divides covid and non-covid out -


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## Monykalyn (Jun 24, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Do you have any data to back up mass testing.  If that were the case the positivity rate would go down or stay the same.  In fact it has gone from 4 to 10.4 % over the last few weeks.  Here is my source...the texas department of health.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


yeah google it - tons of articles come up about the prison testing and that the results didn't start getting reported until late May. And that include prison staff/clusters of friends/family too.  When you read the article 3/4 of the way the reporters even have to admit the results are because of testing clusters. Doesn't mean there isn't community spread-however it IS important to know where and from which group the clusters are testing positive in high rates. If you know you have neighbors that work in prisons then you may be at increased risk in that community. I just don't get why that information isn't reported more often and maybe people would do better about following guidelines to keep community spread down. Instead it is all fear-all the time and people get TIRED of that - so you see the rebellion of no guidelines being followed.


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## bluehende (Jun 24, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> yeah google it - tons of articles come up about the prison testing and that the results didn't start getting reported until late May. And that include prison staff/clusters of friends/family too.  When you read the article 3/4 of the way the reporters even have to admit the results are because of testing clusters. Doesn't mean there isn't community spread-however it IS important to know where and from which group the clusters are testing positive in high rates. If you know you have neighbors that work in prisons then you may be at increased risk in that community. I just don't get why that information isn't reported more often and maybe people would do better about following guidelines to keep community spread down. Instead it is all fear-all the time and people get TIRED of that - so you see the rebellion of no guidelines being followed.


I posted actual department of health data.  While prisons may be a hot spot are they not cases.


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## Passepartout (Jun 24, 2020)

We hit a record number of cases today. Most ever. The Governor dropped back to 'phase III' from IV- virtually open. To- bars closed, crowd limits of 10, masks in public,  but curiously, theaters open. I don't make the rules.


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## bluehende (Jun 24, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> yeah google it - tons of articles come up about the prison testing and that the results didn't start getting reported until late May. And that include prison staff/clusters of friends/family too.  When you read the article 3/4 of the way the reporters even have to admit the results are because of testing clusters. Doesn't mean there isn't community spread-however it IS important to know where and from which group the clusters are testing positive in high rates. If you know you have neighbors that work in prisons then you may be at increased risk in that community. I just don't get why that information isn't reported more often and maybe people would do better about following guidelines to keep community spread down. Instead it is all fear-all the time and people get TIRED of that - so you see the rebellion of no guidelines being followed.


I did google it and they reported them on May 21.  How does that effect junes numbers????? Since May's numbers were pretty good for Texas it seems this is a non factor.

Please post data not google it.


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## am1 (Jun 24, 2020)

To be expected. Nice weather will not help.


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## Luanne (Jun 24, 2020)

am1 said:


> To be expected. Nice weather will not help.


We've known for a long time nice weather doesn't do anything to stop the virus. All it does is get more people out.


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## dsmrp (Jun 24, 2020)

Washington state is increasing too. Some counties are at Phase 3 of 4. The most populous one, where I am, just reached Phase 2. Another county is in our local news cause of their 2nd highest positive number of cases. 
One of their main hospitals is full up and transferring Covid cases to their sister hospital in Seattle.

We now have a governor's statewide mandate to wear masks in public, with the usual exceptions.

I took a short pause on my mask making for friends, family and patients at DD's clinic. I'm gonna gear up again


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## WinniWoman (Jun 24, 2020)

I dont get why people need so many masks. I wear the same mask over and over again. I clean it after each use. As long as I don’t lose it it will last for a long time.


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## WinniWoman (Jun 24, 2020)

Luanne said:


> We've known for a long time nice weather doesn't do anything to stop the virus. All it does is get more people out.



And being outside in fresh air and sun helps people’s physical and mental health. People can’t stay in 24 hours per day. I’ve been outside since March/April. People can be outside safely.


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## Luanne (Jun 24, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> And being outside in fresh air and sun helps people’s physical and mental health. People can’t stay in 24 hours per day. I’ve been outside since March/April. People can be outside safely.


I never said they couldn't.  I go outside regularly.


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## TravelTime (Jun 24, 2020)

If 95% of people wear masks, tens of thousands of lives could be saved, model shows

If nearly everyone wears masks in public, tens of thousands of lives could be saved during the coronavirus pandemic, an updated forecast from the University of Washington predicted.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) model, which is often cited by the White House, predicted that more than 179,000 people in the U.S. will die from COVID-19 by Oct. 1, U.S. News reported. But the model also showed the number of deaths would fall to about 146,000 if 95% of the population wore masks in public, according to KIRO.....

Read more here: 
	

			https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243781132.html?


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## TravelTime (Jun 24, 2020)

I think the main reason for the surge in cases is that people are getting together in big gatherings, at restaurants, at stores, together with family and friends, etc. without social distancing or wearing masks. When everyone was staying home, of course the virus would not spread. How could it? No one was in contact. Then the states reopened without clear guidance and boom, the cases went up because everyone thought it was safe to be social again. This is to be expected. We can’t stay home until 2021 or longer until there is a vaccine or treatment. The government needs a coordinated strategy and clear messaging and clear mandates if we are to get the cases rates back down. They are beating Covid in other countries. Other countries are reopening and cases are not soaring. Why can‘t the USA reopen safely?


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## dioxide45 (Jun 24, 2020)

Luanne said:


> When I look at the maps showing where cases are rising I feel like we are in a little bubble here in New Mexico.  We supposedly have a 14 days quarantine, but only for those flying in.  People can drive in from Texas and Arizona with no problems. So many Texans in the state right now.  So many Texans, not wearing masks.


Willing to be there are a lot of people from New Mexico not wearing masks too...


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## silentg (Jun 24, 2020)

Not being politically correct. With all the large gatherings of protesters, shouting and close contact, the Virus has spread and the age of new covid 19 cases has gone to average 33 years old. We wear masks whenever we go out.
Social distanced from everyone, and it’s not getting better. Please don’t under estimate this contagious virus.
Stay safe and healthy.


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## Luanne (Jun 24, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> Willing to be there are a lot of people from New Mexico not wearing masks too...


Sure there are.  But, our governor has mandated masks are to be worn.  We are opening up slowly.  I have personally noticed a lot of people wearing masks when I'm out.  Unfortunately many of those not wearing masks are tourists.  
My bff lives in Florida.  She is personally pretty upset with how things are being handled there and the number of people not wearing masks there.


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## bbodb1 (Jun 24, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I posted actual department of health data.  *While prisons may be a hot spot are they not cases*.



I am a bit confused on the bolded point @bluehende but if you mean prisons cases can spill over into the community at large, Arkansas is living proof of this.  Poultry processors, retirement homes and prisons are our largest source of COVID-19 cases in the state.  Once the virus enters a facility, not only does it run through the residents (or inmates) but also the staff carries the virus to the outside world.  I suspect this is the case everywhere.  And as @silentg notes below, *the timing of the protests* was idiotic and needlessly increased an already bad situation.  



Passepartout said:


> We hit a record number of cases today. Most ever. The Governor dropped back to 'phase III' from IV- virtually open. To- bars closed, crowd limits of 10, masks in public,  but curiously, theaters open. I don't make the rules.



@Passepartout - that is something our Governor Hutchinson has been asked on more than one occassion (what would it take for our state to back up a level) and his answers (to this point anyway) have been dismissive of that possibility.  I can understand not wanting to return restrictions to businesses already hurting (hemorrhaging in some cases, closed in others) but the situation in Arkansas is getting worse as we attempt to return to pre COVID-19 operating conditions.  It appears we are not alone in this trend.  

There are no easy answers here, but insisting on moving toward total reopening in the face of current developments is madness.



silentg said:


> Not being politically correct. With all the large gatherings of protesters, shouting and close contact, the Virus has spread and the age of new covid 19 cases has gone to average 33 years old. We wear masks whenever we go out.
> Social distanced from everyone, and it’s not getting better. Please don’t under estimate this contagious virus.
> Stay safe and healthy.



Protestors, rioters and looters have indeed added gasoline to the COVID-19 problem (and other problems) but I doubt those groups have any hint of introspective reflection in their skill set.


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## dsmrp (Jun 24, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I dont get why people need so many masks. I wear the same mask over and over again. I clean it after each use. As long as I don’t lose it it will last for a long time.



I'm not sure what your using to clean your mask, but we're washing ours. If I'm running errands to a several places, I'll put on a new mask at each new place I drive to.  I was using 2 masks for a long time, but recently upped to 3.  I've made at least 6-8 for DD for her workplace. I'm WFH.


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## Luanne (Jun 24, 2020)

dsmrp said:


> I'm not sure what your using to clean your mask, but we're washing ours. If I'm running errands to a several places, I'll put on a new mask at each new place I drive to.  I was using 2 masks for a long time, but recently upped to 3.  I've made at least 6-8 for DD for her workplace. I'm WFH.


We wash our masks as well.  We have 3 each and we also have disposable masks.  I used one of those when I got my hair cut and colored.


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## Luanne (Jun 24, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Protestors, rioters and looters have indeed added gasoline to the COVID-19 problem (and other problems) but I doubt those groups have any hint of introspective reflection in their skill set.


Of the protests I've seen many of those participating have been wearing masks.  Much more so than at the recent political rallies.


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## bbodb1 (Jun 24, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Of the protests I've seen many of those participating have been wearing masks.  *Much more so than at the recent political rallies*.



I will add them to my list of scorn as well - it is entirely brain dead to be holding a political rally - or any rally of any kind - at this time. 
Entirely unnecessary.  

I feel my Agent K quote coming back soon.....


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## bluehende (Jun 24, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I am a bit confused on the bolded point @bluehende but if you mean prisons cases can spill over into the community at large, Arkansas is living proof of this.  Poultry processors, retirement homes and prisons are our largest source of COVID-19 cases in the state.  Once the virus enters a facility, not only does it run through the residents (or inmates) but also the staff carries the virus to the outside world.  I suspect this is the case everywhere.  And as


  All I am saying is that a case in a prison system is no less a case than one elsewhere.  There was an implication in the post I was answering that somehow a prisoner getting the virus does not count.   If you are interested the John Oliver this week addressed this exact problem.


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## bbodb1 (Jun 24, 2020)

bluehende said:


> All I am saying is that a case in a prison system is no less a case than one elsewhere.  There was an implication in the post I was answering that somehow a prisoner getting the virus does not count.   If you are interested the John Oliver this week addressed this exact problem.


I am watching this now @bluehende - I can tell you John Oliver misrepresented / distorted / underreported what Dr. Nate Smith said about prison populations because Dr. Smith has been reminding every one continuously about how this virus easily reaches communities due to the people that work at these facilities spreading the virus.  

Nonetheless, congregate facilities of all types are potential sources for flare ups of COVID-19 and if we do not address them, they will become a major source of virus transmission.


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## bluehende (Jun 25, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I am watching this now @bluehende - I can tell you John Oliver misrepresented / distorted / underreported what Dr. Nate Smith said about prison populations because Dr. Smith has been reminding every one continuously about how this virus easily reaches communities due to the people that work at these facilities spreading the virus.
> 
> Nonetheless, congregate facilities of all types are potential sources for flare ups of COVID-19 and if we do not address them, they will become a major source of virus transmission.


Maybe his point on community spread from prisons just registered more with me, but I thought that was one of the main points.


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## easyrider (Jun 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Do you have any data to back up mass testing.  If that were the case the positivity rate would go down or stay the same.  In fact it has gone from 4 to 10.4 % over the last few weeks.  Here is my source...the texas department of health.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Our Yakima County Health Department has been covid 19 testing about 500 people each day. This testing results with between 100 - 200 positive results each day. We are still in phase 1 and starting this Friday masks will be required every where. More testing = more positive results = more restrictions.

Bill


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## TravelTime (Jun 25, 2020)

*NY, NJ and CT require travelers from states with high coronavirus rates to quarantine for two weeks*

Still, Dr. Richard Besser, former acting director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said no state has yet effectively reopened its economy safely.









						NY, NJ and CT require travelers from states with high coronavirus rates to quarantine for two weeks | CNN
					

New York, New Jersey and Connecticut issued a travel advisory Wednesday that requires people arriving from states with high coronavirus rates to quarantine for 14 days.




					www.cnn.com


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## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

dsmrp said:


> I'm not sure what your using to clean your mask, but we're washing ours. If I'm running errands to a several places, I'll put on a new mask at each new place I drive to.  I was using 2 masks for a long time, but recently upped to 3.  I've made at least 6-8 for DD for her workplace. I'm WFH.




All I do is wipe it down with soap and water (if I even do ti at all) and leave it on my dashboard for the next trip out.


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## am1 (Jun 25, 2020)

Luanne said:


> We've known for a long time nice weather doesn't do anything to stop the virus. All it does is get more people out.



Exactly it is the nice weather getting people out and together.  I try to keep my house and car windows open as much as possible.  Not easy when living in a sauna.


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## beejaybeeohio (Jun 25, 2020)

Re: Mask Cleaning
We found a UV light bulb in our basement so put our 2 N-95 masks, also discovered in the basement, under that. We found an 80% alcohol antiseptic spray at our grocery store we've been using to sanitize masks in the car between stores. We are  machine washing cloth masks. I've taken to wearing bandanas with a coffee filter folded into the triangle too.

It continues to irk me that so many are not wearing masks. For example we went to one of our favorite restaurants to dine on their patio. Reservations are not taken for the patio so we needed to go into the lobby to put our names on the waiting list and then wait outdoors to be called. Clearly posted on the entrance door were signs requiring masks to be worn INSIDE. There was even a hand sanitizer dispenser on the outer doors. But numerous folk blithely entered maskless. When we were called and led thru the restaurant to the patio, I commented to the masked hostess about the unmasked she encountered and that I was concerned for her. She emphatically agreed and said that her other job was at a hospital so there was even more risk to her and others thanks to the thoughtless.


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## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

I read this this morning: 

“Lowest reported deaths from #coronavirus on a Wednesday since before the pandemic began.“

“To be clear, in Houston, the percentage of beds occupied by COVID patients is currently 12.9%. In Austin, the percentage of beds occupied by COVID patients is 10.2%.” Carrie Williams, Texas Hospital Association.

I think there is a lot of lying going on in the press and by some government officials. Something is not right with all the conflicting info.


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## Snazzylass (Jun 25, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> But what the heck is happening in Arizona??


Beats me. LOL. Except my priest reported this was expected. We were predicted to peak in June. It's hardly "high season" for us - in some ways. We do depend on tourism, but our weather is more inviting in cooler months.
Our rules have been revised. We are required to wear masks now.


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## Brett (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I read this this morning:
> 
> “Lowest reported deaths from #coronavirus on a Wednesday since before the pandemic began.“
> 
> ...




Maybe it's your particular internet source of the "lying" press or lying  "government official"   .....

From *today's Wall Street Journal*  June 25, 2020   .... are they part of the "lying" conspiracy ?


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## Patri (Jun 25, 2020)

The wave was expected, so why are people surprised?


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## Conan (Jun 25, 2020)




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## bluehende (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I read this this morning:
> 
> “Lowest reported deaths from #coronavirus on a Wednesday since before the pandemic began.“
> 
> ...


Actually this makes perfect sense.  The lowest single day of infections was June 1.  Death is a lagging indicator that happens 3 to 5 weeks after infection.  It makes perfect sense with that lag that deaths are low right now.  The delay comes from 7 to 14 days before symptoms.  Early I heard that the normal progression if it was going south was 7 to 10 days from that until hospitalization.  Then 1 week before ICU.  Then an average of 21 days on a respirator before death.  I have not heard any news on whether this has changed but certainly you do not get the diagnosis and keel over that day.


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## Yellowfin (Jun 25, 2020)

In many cities the contact tracers were not allowed to ask those who tested positive if they had attended the protests. We will never know if the increase is due to the protests or to opening up the economy.


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## "Roger" (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I read this this morning:
> 
> “Lowest reported deaths from #coronavirus on a Wednesday since before the pandemic began.“
> 
> ...


I have never seen any of the "lying" press claim that the current death rate is high. (Perhaps I read too many liberal news media.) I have seen "concern" (note, not stated as fact) that death statistics tend to rise several weeks _after_ a surge in cases.

Occupied beds is very different from beds in the ICU or beds especially set aside for coVid 19 patients. The number of beds currently occupied in many hospitals is currently low (as often reported by the press) in that people are reluctant to go into hospitals out of fear of being exposed to patients with coVid 19.


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## normab (Jun 25, 2020)

Patri said:


> The wave was expected, so why are people surprised?



I agree.   No one predicted that the numbers would fall.  

That being said, I have been surprised at how people do not take precautions, E.g. the lack of masks that has caused our county, and several others in Florida, to mandate them.  People are acting as if it’s over.

The bad news is that the numbers are rising and some hospitals are starting to fill up.  The good news, yes there is a silver lining, is that we will reach herd immunity (assuming it exists for this disease) much sooner if folks keep up these lax practices.

It’s all the more important that those at higher risk and/or those are highly concerned about catching it, continue to follow all the guidelines, and stay at home (indoors and out) unless they have no choice.  In the end, you can only control your own behavior.


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## Yellowfin (Jun 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Actually this makes perfect sense.  The lowest single day of infections was June 1.  Death is a lagging indicator that happens 3 to 5 weeks after infection.  It makes perfect sense with that lag that deaths are low right now.  The delay comes from 7 to 14 days before symptoms.  Early I heard that the normal progression if it was going south was 7 to 10 days from that until hospitalization.  Then 1 week before ICU.  Then an average of 21 days on a respirator before death.  I have not heard any news on whether this has changed but certainly you do not get the diagnosis and keel over that day.


It is going to take time, indeed. However, do we have data that shows who got infected more recently? I read it is younger people so the deaths do not necessarily have to follow, at least not in the same proportion. The older people can take the matter in their hands, continue to isolate and stay safe.


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## "Roger" (Jun 25, 2020)

An interesting article from the Wall Street Journal about the rise in the number of cases. It is probably behind a firewall, but a couple of highlights.

The article contains graphs showing how the percentage of tests revealing positive cases is very much on the rise. The rise can be noted even when one compares the seven day versus fourteen day average. This would seem to indicate it is not just a matter of more testing. 

There is also a chart showing in which states the percentage of cases testing positive is the highest. It lists all the states that are above the current national average of 5.5%. Arizona leads the way with about 22% testing positive followed by SC, Florida, Utah, Missippee, Texas (at 12%). The surprise here for me is that California is not among the states listed. Apparently, while they currently have a very high number of cases, that is partly due to the fact that it is a very populous state.









						Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.
					

Covid-19 cases are accelerating around the country, reaching new daily highs in states including Texas and Arizona and spurring concerns about prospects for an economic and social revival.




					www.wsj.com


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## bbodb1 (Jun 25, 2020)

Conan said:


>


This is a textbook example of how to distort facts - while the data source at least acknowledges they have distorted, er adjusted, the scales, that simply is not necessary. 
Present the data - on the same scale throughout - and let the data speak on its own.


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## bbodb1 (Jun 25, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> An interesting article from the Wall Street Journal about the rise in the number of cases. It is probably behind a firewall, but a couple of highlights.
> 
> The article contains graphs showing how the percentage of tests revealing positive cases is very much on the rise. The rise can be noted even when one compares the seven day versus fourteen day average. This would seem to indicate it is not just a matter of more testing.
> 
> ...



Since no state anywhere is even remotely close to testing a significant portion of its population with a quick turnaround, in many cases, test are being administered in areas where the virus is breaking out.   Positivity rates can be nefariously impacted if a government chooses where to test with PR implications in mind.

The point here is if we want reliable data, we have to reliably test a much larger segment of the population on a regular and quick basis.


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## Cornell (Jun 25, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> This is a textbook example of how to distort facts - while the data source at least acknowledges they have distorted, er adjusted, the scales, that simply is not necessary.
> Present the data - on the same scale throughout - and let the data speak on its own.


At least they labeled the y-axes  .  So many times charts like this don't even do that.


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## "Roger" (Jun 25, 2020)

I guess we are at odds with each other. I see nothing inappropriate with the graphs that were resented. The point of the graphs was to show how the _rate_ of reported cases was increasing in the listed states. The article openly admits that the scales are different "to make the charts readable." They could have put the graphs all on the same scales, it would have revealed exactly the same thing, but most the charts would have been unreadable because one would need a magnifying glass to see some of them.

I also found this sentence interesting. "Positivity rates can be nefariously impacted _if a government chooses where to test _with PR implications in mind." (Empahsis added.) I am not aware of a government choosing where to test. At least in my state, you can get tested anywhere across the state and the government is not doing any directing.


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## Conan (Jun 25, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> This is a textbook example of how to distort facts - while the data source at least acknowledges they have distorted, er adjusted, the scales, that simply is not necessary.
> Present the data - on the same scale throughout - and let the data speak on its own.


Since the focus is on the increase in cases, the angle (slope) of the curve is more pertinent than the absolute numbers.

A better set of graphs would show # of cases per 100,000 of population, and with that a common Y-axis would be appropriate. Turns out the current average daily new cases in the leading states are mostly 12 to 20 per day per 100,000 (except Arizona at 38 per 100,000).

Oklahoma shows the biggest jump from two weeks prior; let's not speculate on how that happened.
If "protestors" were a leading source of infection I would expect a stronger showing from the states that had the biggest demonstrations.








						Tracking the coronavirus around the U.S.: See how your state is doing
					

View NPR's maps and graphics to see where COVID-19 is hitting hardest in the U.S., which state outbreaks are under control and where cases are still spreading.




					www.npr.org
				




*NEW DAILY CASES VS. 2 WEEKS AGO*

STATE1-WEEKPER 100K2-WEEK CHANGEOklahoma372 new cases/day9 per 100K284%​Florida3,756 new cases/day17 per 100K205%​Arizona2,750 new cases/day38 per 100K157%​Texas4,348 new cases/day15 per 100K156%​Idaho110 new cases/day6 per 100K134%​South Carolina1,049 new cases/day20 per 100K119%​Kansas184 new cases/day6 per 100K96%​Oregon175 new cases/day4 per 100K86%​Georgia1,336 new cases/day13 per 100K84%​Tennessee732 new cases/day11 per 100K66%​Washington441 new cases/day6 per 100K65%​Arkansas538 new cases/day18 per 100K64%​California4,732 new cases/day12 per 100K63%​Ohio620 new cases/day5 per 100K56%​Alabama679 new cases/day14 per 100K52%​Utah491 new cases/day15 per 100K45%​North Carolina1,370 new cases/day13 per 100K33%​Louisiana549 new cases/day12 per 100K33%​Mississippi398 new cases/day13 per 100K29%​


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## bluehende (Jun 25, 2020)

Yellowfin said:


> In many cities the contact tracers were not allowed to ask those who tested positive if they had attended the protests. We will never know if the increase is due to the protests or to opening up the economy.


While there is no way cases do not go up from the protests would not the biggest protest areas go up.   NY,DC, and MN  all have declining cases.  High mask usage and being outside may keep these increased infections in the noise.  Only time will tell, but in those three areas they should have started showing up last week with next week being the peak.


----------



## AJCts411 (Jun 25, 2020)

Curious. About masks.  (Yes I will wear one where mandated. ) But if everyone wears a mask but for one or two, then how are you the mask wearer endanger if masks are the answer, effective?


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## Conan (Jun 25, 2020)

AJCts411 said:


> _if everyone wears a mask but for one or two, then how are you the mask wearer endanger if masks are the answer, effective?_


What you're describing is a kind of herd immunity. If masks were 100% effective one or two (or millions for that matter) could go maskless and still be safe. Unfortunately nobody is saying masks are 100% effective--ask the families of the dead healthcare workers.

If masks reduce a person's risk of catching the virus from [purely hypothetical] 1 in 100 with no mask to 1 in 1,000 with a mask, wouldn't you want to wear a mask?


----------



## jme (Jun 25, 2020)

AJCts411 said:


> Curious. About masks.  (Yes I will wear one where mandated. ) But if everyone wears a mask but for one or two, then how are you the mask wearer endanger if masks are the answer, effective?



There have been scientific explanations ad infinitum, both online and here on TUG.
Charts, videos of aerosol/droplet spread, interviews, journal articles, CDC reports, American Medical Assoc reports,
TV ads, and much much more.

What planet are you from?

And the proof is that it's spreading exponentially upon this "Great ReOpening" strictly because
people are NOT taking it seriously. Like you, not wearing a protective mask except where it's mandated (and many not even then).
I truly hope you will just be lucky, because that'll be the only reason.

Addendum:
(I've never received an "Angry" before, but for the reasons I suppose I did, I still feel I must state the truth......so I'll wear that Angry proudly.
I have read and contemplated all of your posts on the pandemic and your disdain for wearing protective masks for nothing other than
political and personal reasons, and I'll take a disagreement from you anytime. Thank you for the opportunity to say more.
All I can say is I am angry too....probably more than you are.......angry at those who are causing more problems by exacerbating the spread
of this deadly disease when they could be more compliant. They are wantonly flaunting what science has taught us.
Statistics bear it out that this "ReOpening" has resulted in an explosion of new cases (reinforcing my original premise, by the way),
which will again cause undue catastrophic damage to the economy and to families who will lose loved ones.
For everyone not to do their part in the mitigation of this pandemic is ludicrous, and frankly, selfish. It doesn't take much effort.
Look at what happened during Spring Break in Florida by virtue of "no masks", and what is happening now.....they too "left home without it".

Not to mention what it's doing to the thousands of front-line physicians and support professionals...they are actually dying while serving others.
I don't want anything to happen to my family, to your family, or to all of our professions---mine has already been affected catastrophically.
Sorry, but at some point you must acknowledge that the "mask-wearing" is more of an issue than you gave it credit for six weeks ago.
Keep your eyes open for what I believe is happening.

My point in that post was that if one walks thru a crazy-busy intersection at rush hour and doesn't get hit, he's lucky.
Likewise, if he habitually doesn't wear a mask except in mandatory situations and doesn't get infected with, or spread, coronavirus,
again he's nothing but lucky. I was hoping he would be lucky.)


----------



## bbodb1 (Jun 25, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> I guess we are at odds with each other. I see nothing inappropriate with the graphs that were resented. The point of the graphs was to show how the _rate_ of reported cases was increasing in the listed states. The article openly admits that the scales are different "to make the charts readable." They could have put the graphs all on the same scales, it would have revealed exactly the same thing, but most the charts would have been unreadable because one would need a magnifying glass to see some of them.



I do not want to suggest we are at odds, Roger but my background experience in computer science and sociology set off alarms when seeing _how_ the data was presented.
Too many people will gloss over the supporting text in and around an article (thus missing the disclaimer about making the data more readable). 
With tools like Abode Reader, it is easy enough to zoom in/out on images if one needs a better view.   I know you did not write this article Roger, but it illustrates a lack of care in presenting data - that is something we need to avoid. 



"Roger" said:


> I also found this sentence interesting. "Positivity rates can be nefariously impacted _if a government chooses where to test _with PR implications in mind." (Empahsis added.) I am not aware of a government choosing where to test. At least in my state, you can get tested anywhere across the state and the government is not doing any directing.



In Arkansas, state government has been selecting what they call surge testing areas.  These are areas where a virus breakout is in progress and it stands to reason the positivity rate of a state's testing will increase if a state chooses to test in a hotter area (virus wise).  To illustrate this point, I am attaching a screen shot of the seven day rolling positivity rate in Arkansas (see below)...

On the three highest dates shown below, a lot of testing was done at correctional centers where there was an outbreak in progress.  When you also consider how few other tests were given throughout the state, it did not take much to significantly effect the positivity rate on those days.

The problem then (and still is) we are not testing enough.  Until state governments can rapidly and repeatedly test a significant portion of their population, these numbers can be impacted (in both directions) by where a government chooses to test.  I agree with your point that at present, most people can get tested if they want to - I am not suggesting anyone is being turned away from testing - but given the very small numbers of tests being done these days, where a government chooses to make testing even more available can markedly impact the results.   









Conan said:


> Since the focus is on the increase in cases, the angle (slope) of the curve is more pertinent than the absolute numbers.
> 
> *A better set of graphs would show # of cases per 100,000 of population, and with that a common Y-axis would be appropriate*. Turns out the current average daily new cases in the leading states are mostly 12 to 20 per day per 100,000 (except Arizona at 38 per 100,000).
> 
> ...



@Conan - yes, precisely.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jun 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Maybe his point on community spread from prisons just registered more with me, but I thought that was one of the main points.


Just to put a finishing touch on this point, I agree with a lot of what John Oliver said in regard to the danger that not just prisons but all congregate facilities pose during this COVID-19 crisis to their surrounding community (at first) and beyond there as time goes by.


----------



## klpca (Jun 25, 2020)

The mother of my friend's son-in-law is dying of covid as we speak. She was admitted to the hospital for a heart issue and was (I suppose) routinely tested. She tested positive and after just a few days is heading towards multiple organ failure. On Tuesday they said that she probably had three days to live. I haven't asked since since they are under a terrible amount of family stress. She is in her early 70's. This is in the Palm Springs area. This is the first time that the connection has been close to us. I am shocked at the speed that it is devastating her body. 

PSA: wear your mask please. It isn't a big sacrifice. Someone's life could depend on it. Why are we arguing about this? Remember the saying,  "if everyone does a little then no one has to do a lot". Wearing a mask is a "little" thing. Be a helper.


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## Yellowfin (Jun 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> While there is no way cases do not go up from the protests would not the biggest protest areas go up.   NY,DC, and MN  all have declining cases.  High mask usage and being outside may keep these increased infections in the noise.  Only time will tell, but in those three areas they should have started showing up last week with next week being the peak.


In NYC they almost had no way to go but down. But how about Los Angeles, Seattle etc that recorded a large increases in new cases and had significant protests? We also do not know  what protests practice more social distancing. Judging by pictures I have seen they were a significant factor. But how big we will never know.


----------



## bluehende (Jun 25, 2020)

Yellowfin said:


> In NYC they almost had no way to go but down. But how about Los Angeles, Seattle etc that recorded a large increases in new cases and had significant protests? We also do not know  what protests practice more social distancing. Judging by pictures I have seen they were a significant factor. But how big we will never know.



Yet NY is in fact going down.  With other big states numbers the numbers can indeed go up......way up.

Because they are opening up sooner.   We all saw the pictures from SoCal.  As for Washington there has not been that big of an increase....and lo and behold they actually have increased their testing over the last few weeks.  Below is a link to the data if you like.  How can you explain the others again?  A nice link to real data would be nice.



			https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard


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## Yellowfin (Jun 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Yet NY is in fact going down.  With other big states numbers the numbers can indeed go up......way up.
> 
> Because they are opening up sooner.   We all saw the pictures from SoCal.  As for Washington there has not been that big of an increase....and lo and behold they actually have increased their testing over the last few weeks.  Below is a link to the data if you like.  How can you explain the others again?  A nice link to real data would be nice.
> 
> ...


one thing I learned about this virus, a lot of things are not predictable or easy to explain, like trying to understand every dot in a fractal pattern.  Some areas with seemingly identical features experienced very different growth


----------



## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

Here’s another post I read by a columnist I follow:


“Los Angeles County is an epicenter of new #coronavirus cases (positive tests), causing Disneyland to delay its reopening. Which is weird, because LA County had one of strictest lockdowns in the country.

I was there last week when it was just lifted. Almost no one was out, and everyone was wearing masks. I was at LAX twice, and it was all but dead both days. Took less than 10 minutes to get through TSA. Took only 20 minutes or so to commute from LAX to Burbank and back the other way a couple of days later, which is typically unheard of. Even got to make an impromptu stop at the Rose Bowl there was so little traffic. My Uber driver told me his company's stats report they're at 20% their normal business in the county. Restaurants had no wait every day I was there.

So then why the surge? If lockdowns work and save us all, how do you explain Los Angeles County?“


----------



## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

I am also reading from people in Arizona and California that they are bringing in people with COVID from Mexico to border hospitals and they are double counting.

So any patient that’s in the hospital gets tested every day they are admitted, as well as anyone with a positive test outside the hospital gets retested and all of those are counted even if they are from the same person!

It’s all very interesting and for me the bottom line of all of this is we can analyze numbers and graphs all we want. We can politicize it all we want. We can blame other people all we want. We can state we are smarter and know more than everyone else all we want.

But none of us is in control of any of it except to care for ourselves and our families and being considerate of others when out in public. Distance if we can and wear a mask at least in buildings. Wash our hands.

The virus will be here for awhile- maybe forever for all we know despite what they say about a vaccine or treatment- but hopefully not-  and we have to deal with the rules and regulations imposed on us and the businesses  unfortunately, whether we agree with them or not. Yes- it sucks and is screwing up our lives And our plans- some more than others.

Us more humble folks don’t know what to believe and from whom so we take it as it comes.

So I say live your best life TODAY and work around this mess as much as you can. We can’t change any of it and it’s not worth arguing over it either. All we have is NOW. Carpe Diem! Don’t live in Fear! And get out when you can as much as possible!


----------



## Luanne (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I am also reading from people in Arizona and California that they are bringing in people with COVID from Mexico to border hospitals and they are double counting.


Can you provide information on this?  I am doing some checking and found an article saying where U.S. citizens who live in Mexico were being airlifted in.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/us/coronavirus-border-mexico-california-el-centro.html


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## klpca (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Here’s another post I read by a columnist I follow:
> 
> 
> “Los Angeles County is an epicenter of new #coronavirus cases (positive tests), causing Disneyland to delay its reopening. Which is weird, because LA County had one of strictest lockdowns in the country.
> ...


I'll ask my family who lives in Redondo Beach. One is an AA flight attendant as well and give you a boots on the ground report. In San Diego I'm starting to see bumper to bumper traffic on the freeway again and thing seem to be busier than even a few weeks ago. I believe that while our case count is increasing our rate of infection is holding steady around 5%, so for the most part our increase is explained by testing and not by increased spreading. Most people here seem to be trying.

Another thing that I was thinking about was how hospitals no longer allow families into see patients. I know that my Auntie who died in March died alone. Screw covid.


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## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Can you provide information on this?  I am doing some checking and found an article saying where U.S. citizens who live in Mexico were being airlifted in.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/us/coronavirus-border-mexico-california-el-centro.html



I can’t. Just people talking about it.


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## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

Another claim: The CDC now reportedly admits - and they  probably knew long before today -- 10 times more people have been infected with COVID than what has been reported (and that doesn't even count children). Which means the virus is far less lethal.


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## Luanne (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I can’t. Just people talking about it.


These days I don't tend to trust "just people talking about it" as proof of anything.  Sure, they might be some cases where this is happening, but putting a blanket statement out there with nothing to back it up just causes someone to believe it and carry on the tale.  Kind of like the game of "telephone" we used to play when we were younger.


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## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

Luanne said:


> These days I don't tend to trust "just people talking about it" as proof of anything.  Sure, they might be some cases where this is happening, but putting a blanket statement out there with nothing to back it up just causes someone to believe it and carry on the tale.  Kind of like the game of "telephone" we used to play when we were younger.



I understand. I tend to like to hear the voices of common folk on the ground and so I give them some credence.


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## CalGalTraveler (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Here’s another post I read by a columnist I follow:
> 
> 
> “Los Angeles County is an epicenter of new #coronavirus cases (positive tests), causing Disneyland to delay its reopening. Which is weird, because LA County had one of strictest lockdowns in the country.
> ...




The governor of California said that many of the new cases are due to family and extended family gatherings in homes. Graduation and birthday parties etc. I will bet that because people are "staying home" to have a party i.e. they are doing as asked, and it's family/extended family in home so attendees don't wear masks. He cited a situation where a 20 YO attended a family graduation party and infected 20 attendees.


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## pedro47 (Jun 25, 2020)

CBS Evening. NEWS now is reporting 23 millions infected by the virus.


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## Luanne (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I understand. I tend to like to hear the voices of common folk on the ground and so I give them some credence.


So, you are in New Hampshire and you are hearing the voice of common folk on the ground from California and Arizona?  Are these people you know who are telling you this, or are you reading it somewhere?  Just curious.  I mean I know what people I know tell me but I wouldn't put it out there to try and prove much of anything.


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## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

Luanne said:


> So, you are in New Hampshire and you are hearing the voice of common folk on the ground from California and Arizona?  Are these people you know who are telling you this, or are you reading it somewhere?  Just curious.  I mean I know what people I know tell me but I wouldn't put it out there to try and prove much of anything.



I’m not trying to prove anything. I am just stating things I hear about. Your article is the proof you seek of what I was hearing.


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## Luanne (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I’m not trying to prove anything. I am just stating things I hear about. Your article is the proof you seek of what I was hearing.


I guess what I assumed (and I should know better than to assume) was that Mexican citizens with COVID 19 were being brought in from Mexico to California and Arizona hospitals. Still not sure how they were being double counted.  The article I found said that U.S. citizens and green card holders were being airlifted into the U.S. I didn't see anything about double counting in that article. It did state that infection rates and cases went up in the areas where these people were brought.


----------



## Panina (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Here’s another post I read by a columnist I follow:
> 
> 
> “Los Angeles County is an epicenter of new #coronavirus cases (positive tests), causing Disneyland to delay its reopening. Which is weird, because LA County had one of strictest lockdowns in the country.
> ...


Lockdowns do not stop you from going to the grocery store, talking or going  to neighbors homes, family gatherings, etc.  
They cannot police everyone. In fact it is mostly voluntary.   If it is like my neighborhood, many not wearing masks in stores, neighbors talking to each other within inches with no masks, parties going on in neighbors homes as well as family gatherings, etc.. This happened during lockdown and is even worse now.


----------



## Luanne (Jun 25, 2020)

Panina said:


> Lockdowns do not stop you from going to the grocery store, talking or going  to neighbors homes, family gatherings, etc.
> They cannot police everyone. In fact it is mostly voluntary.   If it is like my neighborhood, many not wearing masks in stores, neighbors talking to each other within inches with no masks, parties going on in neighbors homes as well as family gatherings, etc.. This happened during lockdown and is even worse now.


My sil can't understand why we won't come over to her house for appetizers and drinks (along with at least one other couple).  She can't understand why we won't go to a dine in restaurant as they had a lovely time and a great meal last night for her birthday.  My husband can't understand why she isn't being more cautious.  I'm finding I'm getting very used to our closed in little bubble. We do get out for the necessary things.  We just limit our contact.  Most of our neighbors are doing the same.

We usually have a huge 4th of July party at our house.  Not one of our neighbors or friends have asked if we are having it this year.


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## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

Luanne said:


> My sil can't understand why we won't come over to her house for appetizers and drinks (along with at least one other couple).  She can't understand why we won't go to a dine in restaurant as they had a lovely time and a great meal last night for her birthday.  My husband can't understand why she isn't being more cautious.  I'm finding I'm getting very used to our closed in little bubble. We do get out for the necessary things.  We just limit our contact.  Most of our neighbors are doing the same.



I don’t understand it either but I respect  everyone’s level of comfort. For some people I think they are too cautious; others I think aren’t cautious enough. For me and my husband, we go for balance between the two.


----------



## Panina (Jun 25, 2020)

Luanne said:


> My sil can't understand why we won't come over to her house for appetizers and drinks (along with at least one other couple).  She can't understand why we won't go to a dine in restaurant as they had a lovely time and a great meal last night for her birthday.  My husband can't understand why she isn't being more cautious.  I'm finding I'm getting very used to our closed in little bubble. We do get out for the necessary things.  We just limit our contact.  Most of our neighbors are doing the same.
> 
> We usually have a huge 4th of July party at our house.  Not one of our neighbors or friends have asked if we are having it this year.


Wish my neighbors were being careful.  Most are not.  A party is at a neighbors house for July 4.  I was invited and am not going.  Getting the mail today I passed 8 residents.  Only one was wearing a mask plus me.  This is only the second person I ever saw since the virus started wearing a mask in our indoor mail room.  Some socialize in there too. 

I was ready to go to NYC  and the NJ shore To visit with mom.  Now now. No way I will stay locked inside an apartment or small shore home.  At home at least I have a nice backyard and can go out walking.  My mom is unhappy with Cuomo because of the new rules.  She  keeps insisting we don’t have to follow them.  I told her I can’t take that chance.


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## Luanne (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I don’t understand it either but I respect  everyone’s level of comfort. For some people I think they are too cautious; others I think aren’t cautious enough. For me and my husband, we go for balance between the two.


If you knew my dh you might understand.  I don't think he is too cautious.  He is relying on information he's getting from studies, and also from friends of his who are, or were, in the medical field.  I know he's done more research than I have and I'm fine following his lead.


----------



## WinniWoman (Jun 25, 2020)

Luanne said:


> If you knew my dh you might understand.  I don't think he is too cautious.  He is relying on information he's getting from studies, and also from friends of his who are, or were, in the medical field.  I know he's done more research than I have and I'm fine following his lead.



Again, I don’t criticize anyone’s level of comfort. Everyone has to do what they think is best for themselves and their family.

On the other side of the coin, I do not criticize people who are much less cautious than I am.

Everyone’s  level of comfort is different and I understand that.


----------



## Luanne (Jun 25, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Again, I don’t criticize anyone’s level of comfort. Everyone has to do what they think is best for themselves and their family.
> 
> On the other side of the coin, *I do not criticize people who are much less cautious than I am*.
> 
> Everyone’s  level of comfort is different and I understand that.


You are much nicer than I am then.  If I feel someone is not being cautious by ignoring social distancing, not wearing a mask to protect others (even when it is mandated) and basically being irresponsible I will criticize them.


----------



## Brett (Jun 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> You are much nicer than I am then.  If I feel someone is not being cautious by ignoring social distancing, not wearing a mask to protect others (even when it is mandated) and basically being irresponsible I will criticize them.



I don't openly criticize -  just hope the people not wearing a mask indoors or at large public gatherings do not have the coronavirus


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## dougp26364 (Jun 26, 2020)

As a hospital worker, I’ve been a little disappointed in the cavalier attitude of the majority of people when out in the stores. When outdoors and able to social distance, no problem. Even small social gatherings if they’re held outdoors don’t worry me as much. But dinner parties, birthday parties et... bother me.

I blame the media. They slammed the churches for gathering, then supported the protesters without question. They shamed a large pool party but had no issue with one man having three huge funeral services. We haven’t been able to have a service for my MIL who passed away a few weeks ago.

People notice these inconsistencies in the media, then they ignore them.


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## Brett (Jun 26, 2020)

dougp26364 said:


> As a hospital worker, I’ve been a little disappointed in the cavalier attitude of the majority of people when out in the stores. When outdoors append able to social distance, no problem. Even small social gatherings if they’re held outdoors don’t worry me as much. But dinner parties, birthday parties et... bother me.
> 
> I blame the media. They slammed the churches for gathering, then supported the protesters without question. They shamed a large pool party but had no issue with one man having three huge funeral services. We haven’t been able to have a service for my MIL who passed away a few weeks ago.
> 
> People notice these inconsistencies in the media, then they ignore them.



So one man having three funerals causes people not to wear masks indoors?

yeah, it's the "media inconsistencies"    ...  that's who we should blame   .....  nothing about leadership .....


----------



## jme (Jun 26, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> ....level of comfort. Everyone has to do what they think is best for themselves and their family.
> Everyone’s  level of comfort is different



Sorry, but this condoning of non-compliant people and their unsafe practices is exactly what is contributing to the problem 
and to the explosion of new cases. They are not just passive onlookers "who hold an opinion",
but in fact they are contributing to the spread!  "Thinking what's best for their family" is faulty thinking.
They're no different from the Florida Spring Breakers.
We must not only be vigilant to do right, but to call out those that don't. Those people do affect (and infect) us!!!
Regardless of what you think, these people are direct threats to us.....They can pass it on!!!
Didn't Jim Jones once say to his "family":
"Here, drink this Kool Aid and it'll be good for all of us..."


----------



## Snazzylass (Jun 26, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I read this this morning:
> 
> “Lowest reported deaths from #coronavirus on a Wednesday since before the pandemic began.“
> 
> ...


Agreed. Information is being taken out of context. The number of cases is NOT making the news here. Yes, we've been told to wear masks. And frankly, we are still in semi-quarantine mode. We are not fully reopened. There are lots of things I'd like to do, but places are not open.


dougp26364 said:


> As a hospital worker, I’ve been a little disappointed in the cavalier attitude of the majority of people when out in the stores. When outdoors append able to social distance, no problem. Even small social gatherings if they’re held outdoors don’t worry me as much. But dinner parties, birthday parties et... bother me.
> 
> I blame the media. They slammed the churches for gathering, then supported the protesters without question. They shamed a large pool party but had no issue with one man having three huge funeral services. We haven’t been able to have a service for my MIL who passed away a few weeks ago.
> 
> People notice these inconsistencies in the media, then they ignore them.


My deepest sympathies for your loss. I am so sorry! This was my greatest fear early on - that I would lose one of my parents and there would be no funeral. Again, I am so sorry. It's awful.


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## klpca (Jun 26, 2020)

dougp26364 said:


> We haven’t been able to have a service for my MIL who passed away a few weeks ago.


My condolences to you. It's never easy, but it's so much worse during this pandemic. Not only did my Auntie die alone in the hospital, there have been no services. She died in March! All of her siblings are in their 80's. We can't take any chances with them getting sick so it is in an indefinite holding pattern for now.

I do think that when everyone saw the protesters they just figured "why bother" and decided to get lazy or defiant about wearing a mask. My goodness, it's a stupid mask. It is definitely better than doing nothing. It is not a huge sacrifice. And the difference that we can make collectively is huge to someone else. Someone's grandma may not die from covid. We could have a funeral for my Auntie. Tuggers could take vacations. Bars and restaurant workers could go back to work. People on unemployment could go back to work. None of that is going to happen until we buckle down and get this under control. So just wear the mask and be a part of the solution. Please.


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## klpca (Jun 26, 2020)

And I know that this is spitting into the wind, but it's just not that hard to fact check things on the internet. If you have a problem with the media then just do some quick searches for source documents. There will be clues in the media reports as to what sources they are using so you can use those as a starting point then look for others. That way, when you share the information, you know that what you are saying is at least somewhat accurate. Otherwise, you are doing the same thing as the media, alluding to things, telling only half of a story, taking things out of context etc. 

My time here on the soapbox has come to an end.


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## bbodb1 (Jun 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> So one man having three funerals causes people not to wear masks indoors?
> 
> yeah, it's the "media inconsistencies"    ...  that's who we should blame   .....  nothing about leadership .....


@Brett - please strive to be the exceptional old dog.


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## Brett (Jun 26, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> @Brett - please strive to be the exceptional old dog.




I blame the media !


----------



## Brett (Jun 26, 2020)

klpca said:


> And I know that this is spitting into the wind, but it's just not that hard to fact check things on the internet. If you have a problem with the media then just do some quick searches for source documents. There will be clues in the media reports as to what sources they are using so you can use those as a starting point then look for others. That way, when you share the information, you know that what you are saying is at least somewhat accurate. Otherwise, you are doing the same thing as the media, alluding to things, telling only half of a story, taking things out of context etc.
> 
> My time here on the soapbox has come to an end.




"_There will be clues in the media reports_"

You are correct.


----------



## klpca (Jun 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> "_There will be clues in the media reports_"
> 
> You are correct.


To use as a starting point. Go ahead and fact check them. Be skeptical. Do some critical thinking. But for goodness sake, spend a couple of minutes fact checking yourself before repeating the information. Btw, this is not directed at anyone in particular. Well, except maybe my dad who uses facebook solely to disseminate his version of the "news", none of which is fact checked lol.


----------



## bluehende (Jun 26, 2020)

dougp26364 said:


> supported the protesters without question.\



I watch all three big cable network news channels.  Your premise is not correct.  There was a parade of health experts on two of the networks including interviews with Fauci warning of the dangers of protesting during a pandemic and the certainty that it will result in new cases.  The other network cannot be discussed without getting into social issues even more contentious than the pandemic.  We may quibble about how much they should have been warning but to say without question is far from the truth.


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 26, 2020)

It is my civil duty to wear a mask to protect first myself, my spouse, my family, my friends and my fellow Americans.
Why are we blaming the media? They are reporting news about Covid-19.


----------



## Passepartout (Jun 26, 2020)

If you were told you could take a medicine that would reduce your chance of catching COVID-19 by 5x? Would you take it?

There is!

That's what wearing a mask does!!!

Jim


----------



## AJCts411 (Jun 26, 2020)

jme said:


> There have been scientific explanations ad infinitum, both online and here on TUG.
> Charts, videos of aerosol/droplet spread, interviews, journal articles, CDC reports, American Medical Assoc reports,
> TV ads, and much much more.
> 
> ...




Maybe angry should read...I will wear a mask.  The empirical satistics actual prove masks to be about useless. Why? Probably because there is zero way to test one method against another.  And actually the same data says separation did not slow the spread.   Data from this world.  Not sorry fror asking questons or having a different opinion.


----------



## CanuckTravlr (Jun 26, 2020)

Wearing masks and staying isolated at home has made a difference.  Virtually every major medical expert and health statistician that I have read says exactly that, and like others, I do a lot of reading and research.

Wearing a mask when in a public setting is more about keeping others safe in case you unknowingly have the virus, than it is about preventing you from getting it.  It is a small sacrifice, but if everyone practices it, it helps prevent spread.  A very simple concept, just as limiting your circle of contacts ("bubble") and limiting unnecessary travel also helps.

There is a lot of "disinformation" out there.  There are people promoting inaccurate information for their own selfish ends in some cases.  Plus some people are looking for "facts" that will support them in their own behaviour.  Unfortunately, that disinformation and those inaccuracies are not just dangerous, but deadly!

The article below discusses the inaccuracy of the oft restated myth about Covid-19 being less deadly than the annual common flu.  We certainly heard that being trotted out regularly here in these forums, particularly in the early days, as to why a lockdown was unnecessary.  









						'Perverse logic': Don't compare the flu to COVID-19
					

Experts say COVID-19 should not be compared to seasonal influenza, citing intervention measures, differences in death tallying and simple logic.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## "Roger" (Jun 26, 2020)

AJCts411 said:


> The empirical satistics actual _*prove*_ masks to be about useless. Why? Probably _*because there is zero way to test*_ one method against another.


Huh?


----------



## WinniWoman (Jun 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> If you knew my dh you might understand.  I don't think he is too cautious.  He is relying on information he's getting from studies, and also from friends of his who are, or were, in the medical field.  I know he's done more research than I have and I'm fine following his lead.



Ironically this just popped up on my Facebook page.









						TheBlaze
					

News and entertainment for people who love America.




					www.conservativereview.com


----------



## Brett (Jun 26, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Ironically this just popped up on my Facebook page.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



but there is a reason for the rise in coronavirus in Texas and Arizona

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/14/8767...-coronavirus-cases-to-end-of-stay-at-home-ord

"Public health experts agree: *The timing of this spike reflects the state's reopening."*





https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...e-updates-us/#link-BIOWM35WWVCT7EZ5C3QKKKX6OA


----------



## bbodb1 (Jun 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> I blame the media !


Touche', @Brett !


----------



## bogey21 (Jun 26, 2020)

My CCRC in Fort Worth, TX which had just started to carefully open up has reverted back to "Lockdown" Status this time with masks mandatory.  I'm not sure anymore if I will live to see this end...

The good news is that none of our 400+ residents have been infected with the virus...

George


----------



## Cornell (Jun 26, 2020)

@bogey21 Keep the faith!  It sounds like you live in a very well-administered CCRC and that makes me happy.   Are you able to get outside at all with the reverted lockdown status?


----------



## jackio (Jun 26, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> The good news is that none of our 400+ residents have been infected with the virus...
> 
> George


\
That IS good news!


----------



## bogey21 (Jun 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @bogey21 Keep the faith!  It sounds like you live in a very well-administered CCRC and that makes me happy.   Are you able to get outside at all with the reverted lockdown status?


Those of us with cars can go when and where we please.  I'm actually surprised they allow this.  If no car, Residents are allowed to walk around the perimeter of the facility but in reality we have a better alternative.  We have a very large internal open air picnic like area which I use a lot to stretch out and get some sunshine...

George


----------



## Cornell (Jun 26, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> Those of us with cars can go when and where we please.  I'm actually surprised they allow this.  If no car, Residents are allowed to walk around the perimeter of the facility but in reality we have a better alternative.  We have a very large internal open air picnic like area which I use a lot to stretch out and get some sunshine...
> 
> George


That's wonderful.  My mother lives in a place that sounds similar to yours.  She lives in Assisted Living (no longer drives).  She had a couple of doc appointments that were fairly routine in nature outside of her CCRC in the next couple of weeks.  We were told by the director of the CCRC that if she went to those appointments she would be in a 14 day quarantine in her room.  We collectively decided to cancel those appointments.  She can currently leave her suite to walk the hallways and we don't want that physical activity be taken away.  Lots of decisions....


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> but there is a reason for the rise in coronavirus in Texas and Arizona
> 
> https://www.npr.org/2020/06/14/8767...-coronavirus-cases-to-end-of-stay-at-home-ord
> 
> ...



Both could be right. It could be a combination of spread possibilities.


----------



## Brett (Jun 26, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> Those of us with cars can go when and where we please.  I'm actually surprised they allow this.  If no car, Residents are allowed to walk around the perimeter of the facility but in reality we have a better alternative.  We have a very large internal open air picnic like area which I use a lot to stretch out and get some sunshine...
> 
> George



good
my mother is in a memory care unit and they only allow visits with supervised social distancing in the garden patio area


----------



## Brett (Jun 26, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Both could be right. It could be a combination of spread possibilities.



There probably is a "spread of possibilities"
But more to the point - (now I see my prior post has been edited ! )

Where does a person get their* news*?
Do you get your news from an opinion commentator in your Facebook "news" feed?
or  is it from WSJ, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc.
or a 24/7 news cable show

Where you get your "news" results in your version / opinion of 'truthfulness' of the news!


----------



## jme (Jun 26, 2020)

AJCts411 said:


> Maybe angry should read...I will wear a mask.  The empirical satistics actual prove masks to be about useless. Why? Probably because there is zero way to test one method against another.  And actually the same data says separation did not slow the spread.   Data from this world.  Not sorry fror asking questons or having a different opinion.



Not sure what empirical statistics you're reading, but the actual scientific research studies that are highly regarded, trusted, and recognized by stalwarts in the field of epidemiology are NOT proving masks to be useless......so frankly your conclusion is absurd.
I've seen studies that conclude just the opposite, and I personally know people who do research and guess what they do? 
They go home wearing masks.   
Try to be a front-line physician or nurse and state something like that and you'd be fired before your next sentence. 
Of course those that set out to disprove something usually do.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> There probably is a "spread of possibilities"
> But more to the point - (now I see my prior post has been edited ! )
> 
> Where does a person get their* news*?
> ...



How does one know that <any> of the sources are "truthful"?

What is the difference between today's "opinion commentator" and yesterday's "investigative journalist"?

Ever watch "His Girl Friday"? Watch the newsroom reporters take the same facts and report totally different stories, <none> of which reflect the the sum of all the facts.
(It's Public Domain - ought to be on YouTube, or some where. . . ) And that was filmed in 1940. The more things change, the more they stay the same. . .


----------



## Brett (Jun 26, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> How does one know that <any> of the sources are "truthful"?
> 
> What is the difference between today's "opinion commentator" and yesterday's "investigative journalist"?
> 
> ...



There is a difference in information coming from the Wall Street Journal that has 2,000 reporters in 85 countries
and a celebrity hollywood  lawyer with "news" in a Facebook news feed.
.
people want to believe their version of the 'news' that fits their own personal belief system.  The internet and social media has made that process much easier


----------



## Cornell (Jun 26, 2020)

October 7: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and  Fatalities
					

NOTE 9/1: DeSantis was informed late Monday that nearly 75,000 results of Quest testing data dating as far back as April would be ingested into the state’s COVID-19 data for Tuesday’s update. Source: Orlando Sentinel.    TR will update the three charts below on a daily basis without commentary...




					tallahasseereports.com


----------



## Luanne (Jun 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> October 7: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and  Fatalities
> 
> 
> NOTE 9/1: DeSantis was informed late Monday that nearly 75,000 results of Quest testing data dating as far back as April would be ingested into the state’s COVID-19 data for Tuesday’s update. Source: Orlando Sentinel.    TR will update the three charts below on a daily basis without commentary...
> ...


The comments are interesting.


----------



## bluehende (Jun 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> October 7: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and  Fatalities
> 
> 
> NOTE 9/1: DeSantis was informed late Monday that nearly 75,000 results of Quest testing data dating as far back as April would be ingested into the state’s COVID-19 data for Tuesday’s update. Source: Orlando Sentinel.    TR will update the three charts below on a daily basis without commentary...
> ...



Here are the 3 graphs.  I guess by positive they mean the graphs are going up.  Or what am I missing.  Today Fl is seeing 8942 new cases.


----------



## Luanne (Jun 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> October 7: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and  Fatalities
> 
> 
> NOTE 9/1: DeSantis was informed late Monday that nearly 75,000 results of Quest testing data dating as far back as April would be ingested into the state’s COVID-19 data for Tuesday’s update. Source: Orlando Sentinel.    TR will update the three charts below on a daily basis without commentary...
> ...


And then there is this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...ith-massive-single-day-increase/#175ce3a2bed5


----------



## Cornell (Jun 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> The comments are interesting.


Just like TUG!


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> There is a difference in information coming from the Wall Street Journal that has 2,000 reporters in 85 countries
> and a celebrity hollywood  lawyer with "news" in a Facebook news feed.
> .
> people want to believe their version of the 'news' that fits their own personal belief system.  The internet and social media has made that process much easier



You have left out "life experience". I would stack my knowledge of Micro/Molecular biology against the majority of those 2,000 WSJ reporters. (I have a degree in the subject (including epidemiology, virology, various biochemistry studies, pathological micro, microbial genetics, ect.))

Furthermore, I was born and raised in South Texas. I had a first hand seat at the cross border healthcare flows during the 1982 and 1994 peso collapses. Plus I had colleagues who lived in the Rio Grande valley and one has retired there. Going across the border (both ways) for just about anything, as day trips, is a common practice.

Finally, consider the following. Why did New York City get hit so hard initially? Could it be that the early stage hotspots in Europe, were flying into NYC? After all, NYC is a the most common arrival point into the US from Europe, is it not? Of course, if that was the case, how did the virus become so prevalent in the early European hotspots? (I leave that research as an exercise for the student.)

Does this mean I am parroting some "celebrity hollywood  lawyer" or that I had already come to the same conclusion independently, based on my early training and life experience?


----------



## bogey21 (Jun 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> My mother... had a couple of doc appointments that were fairly routine in nature outside of her CCRC in the next couple of weeks.  We were told by the director of the CCRC that if she went to those appointments she would be in a 14 day quarantine in her room.



This makes no sense to me.  Doctor Offices are probably one of the safest places one can go.   Our CCRC Drivers will take us to and bring us back from routine Doctor appointments.  There is no quarantine upon our return....

George


----------



## "Roger" (Jun 26, 2020)

I probably shouldn't be spending any time on this, but just a _very cursory_ look at some of the numbers in the Horowitz report.

Four counties are highlighted toward the beginning of the article. Two of them adjoin Mexico. The total number of cases from those two counties are 468 and 176. Go north to the next two counties listed and the total number of cases are 1,587 and 37,135 (Maricopa County, Phoenix). Apparently we are to believe a whole lot of cross border Mexicans are being taken north to the Phoenix hospitals and the governor is unaware of how these transplants are swelling the state's numbers.

The next graphic (very large) shows that half of the hospitalizations in Imperial County, California are Hispanic. (No claim that these are Mexicans who recently crossed the border, but just Hispanic.) Imperial County population 174,528, cases to date 5,192; so this illustrates how the numbers of cases in California are due to Mexicans crossing the border. Los Angeles population 3,010,232, cases to date 91,529.

Can you imagine if the NYT, the Washington Post, or the Wall Street Journal were to present statistics in this way? Wow!!


----------



## am1 (Jun 26, 2020)

Anyone else read about what a county in Oregon thought about allowing a group of people not wear masks?  How do people in office come up with these decisions and think 1 they are good and 2 that they will fly.


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 26, 2020)

Please wear your masks, it is liked bucketing up a seat belt in your, vehicle for protection.  IMHO.


----------



## Conan (Jun 26, 2020)

The case numbers in Florida are really shocking.
Lee County's case count is up 37% in 7 days.
Collier County's case count is up 26% in 7 days.

Even loan sharks don't charge more than 10 to 20 percent a week.


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 26, 2020)

Conan said:


> The case numbers in Florida are really shocking.
> Lee County's case count is up 37% in 7 days.
> Collier County's case count is up 26% in 7 days.
> 
> Even loan sharks don't charge more than 10 to 20 percent a week.


How are the cities of Miami and Orlando doing in the  Covid -19 case count?


----------



## Conan (Jun 26, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> How are the cities of Miami and Orlando doing in the  Covid -19 case count?


They fired the statistician who wanted to track those numbers, but she's been maintaining her website as a private person.





						Experience
					






					experience.arcgis.com
				



You go to County, then Local Data, and then you can look up current cases by zip code or city.
That gives you the current case numbers--Miami 16,925 cases; Orlando 5,110 cases.

She has graphs of new cases by Case Date on the Reopening Criteria tab, which also tells you whether the area you're looking at meets the criteria for reopening that the Florida Department of Health announced in June and later deleted.


----------



## Brett (Jun 26, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> You have left out "life experience". I would stack my knowledge of Micro/Molecular biology against the majority of those 2,000 WSJ reporters. (I have a degree in the subject (including epidemiology, virology, various biochemistry studies, pathological micro, microbial genetics, ect.))
> 
> Furthermore, I was born and raised in South Texas. I had a first hand seat at the cross border healthcare flows during the 1982 and 1994 peso collapses. Plus I had colleagues who lived in the Rio Grande valley and one has retired there. Going across the border (both ways) for just about anything, as day trips, is a common practice.
> Finally, consider the following. Why did New York City get hit so hard initially? Could it be that the early stage hotspots in Europe, were flying into NYC? After all, NYC is a the most common arrival point into the US from Europe, is it not? Of course, if that was the case, how did the virus become so prevalent in the early European hotspots? (I leave that research as an exercise for the student.)
> ...



probably

but maybe those 2,000 Wall Street Journal reporters have more "life experience" than you !
or maybe it's ...... objectivity ?


----------



## LMD (Jun 26, 2020)

Conan said:


> The case numbers in Florida are really shocking.
> Lee County's case count is up 37% in 7 days.
> Collier County's case count is up 26% in 7 days.
> 
> Even loan sharks don't charge more than 10 to 20 percent a week.


I live in Collier County. It's scary. We are doing a staycation at the Surf Club on Marco check in tomorrow and I am quite nervous about it. Plan on going down, checking in, cleaning like hell, going home for the night and returning on Sunday to stay the week. Hope I am not making a bad decision.


----------



## TravelTime (Jun 26, 2020)

Panina said:


> Lockdowns do not stop you from going to the grocery store, talking or going  to neighbors homes, family gatherings, etc.
> They cannot police everyone. In fact it is mostly voluntary.   If it is like my neighborhood, many not wearing masks in stores, neighbors talking to each other within inches with no masks, parties going on in neighbors homes as well as family gatherings, etc.. This happened during lockdown and is even worse now.



When we were having strict lockdowns during SIP/SAH, it did work. Everyone was staying home and only going out for essential services. Now that states are lifting the shut downs, it is no longer working. I think the SIP/SAH artificially made it seem like Covid was under control. It was a false sense of safety. Things seem to be worse now than before. Personally, I am living like we are still in SIP. 

When I read the news or read TUG or watch CNN, I feel like we are in the worst right now. The only new things we are doing is we are taking the dogs to the vet tomorrow (This is an essential service and they still do not allow customers in the vet office), and getting them groomed on Sunday. I am getting a haircut in mid July (my hairdresser is wearing a mask and so will I). I have some friends visiting on July 4th weekend but we are all staying at home (they have been wearing masks and socially distancing). I guess that is a lot more than before. Other than that, my DH and I are mainly staying home and wearing masks when we go out for essential services.

The good news is that the employees at our little market are finally wearing masks and all the customers are too. During the SIP, the employees were not wearing masks. That was probably the riskiest place we went.


----------



## TravelTime (Jun 26, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> My CCRC in Fort Worth, TX which had just started to carefully open up has reverted back to "Lockdown" Status this time with masks mandatory.  I'm not sure anymore if I will live to see this end...
> 
> The good news is that none of our 400+ residents have been infected with the virus...
> 
> George



Your statement above is sad. I hope you live to see the end of this. I enjoy your comments on TUG.


----------



## CO skier (Jun 26, 2020)

Will US politicians ever understand that the US is on the same Covid-19 path as every other country?  It will be worse or better than any given country.  The Economic Shutdown of 2020 just got us back to near Square One last March-April.  Now they (and we) are faced with the same decisions -- shutdown, again, or continue the shutdown (Hawaii) which is a one way street with no path to re-opening until there is a vaccine -- or accept the undeniable and inevitable and re-open society, with appropriate precautions, and accept the undeniable and unavoidable consequences like Sweden did from the beginning.


----------



## Yellowfin (Jun 26, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Will US politicians ever understand that the US is on the same Covid-19 path as every other country?  It will be worse or better than any given country.  The Economic Shutdown of 2020 just got us back to near Square One last March-April.  Now they (and we) are faced with the same decisions -- shutdown, again, or continue the shutdown (Hawaii) which is a one way street with no path to re-opening until there is a vaccine -- or accept the undeniable and inevitable and re-open society, with appropriate precautions, and accept the undeniable and unavoidable consequences like Sweden did from the beginning.


Back to square one in terms of the number of new cases... but many are a lot poorer and depressed


----------



## CO skier (Jun 26, 2020)

Yellowfin said:


> Back to square one in terms of the number of new cases... but many are a lot poorer and depressed


Too true.  The Economic Shutdown had predictable effects on mental health, financial health, suicides, but that mostly gets swept under the carpet because it is not measured in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths related to Covid-19.  There are no graphs for these quite significant secondary and tragic effects of poor, but politically expedient public policy.


----------



## PigsDad (Jun 26, 2020)

I thought this was an interesting and well-written article on how the spikes we are now seeing in the Southern and Western states differ from the earlier spikes in the Northeast.  Spoiler alert: more prevalent among the younger generation (which is no surprise).



			Coronavirus Surge in South and West Looks Different From North's
		


Kurt


----------



## CO skier (Jun 26, 2020)

From post #127, "... a government estimate showed that more than 20 million people in the U.S. might have contracted the virus ..."

In a country of 325 million people, that leaves 94% of the population vulnerable to the virus, even after the Economic Shutdown of 2020 that was supposed to be the "answer."  Was it worth the cost in lives and livelihoods?

Second Wave?  not hardly.  After all the shutdowns and political theatre, we are barely beginning the First Wave.  The health advisors to the President and governors must know this.  It is waaaay past time that they stop promoting the computer models that deny the inevitable, "get real" with our political leaders, and admit that continued shutdowns is not a practical "solution."


----------



## bluehende (Jun 26, 2020)

CO skier said:


> \
> 
> In a country of 325 million people, that leaves 94% of the population vulnerable to the virus, even after the *Economic Shutdown of 2020 that was supposed to be the "answer."  Was it worth the cost in lives and livelihoods?*
> 
> \



Without the shutdown we would have had more deaths probably an order of magnitude more deaths.  Our hospitals which were using convention centers to house patients would have been crushed.  With that going on how much economic activity would have been destroyed.  Imagine the fear under those conditions.  This economy was headed for problems no matter what we did.  How many people would be out and about knowing a respiratory virus is circulating and the hospital has no room for you.  Europe which has also opened up has had 4000 cases today instead of the us which had 47000 cases.  We need to be more like europe.  We have to face it.  The world has changed.  Hopefully it will be short lived with a great therapeutic or a vaccine.  Until then the world will have to learn how to deal with balancing economic activity vs lives lost, but believing that doing nothing would have left the economy humming along is just denial.


----------



## Brett (Jun 27, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Without the shutdown we would have had more deaths probably an order of magnitude more deaths.  Our hospitals which were using convention centers to house patients would have been crushed.  With that going on how much economic activity would have been destroyed.  Imagine the fear under those conditions.  This economy was headed for problems no matter what we did.  How many people would be out and about knowing a respiratory virus is circulating and the hospital has no room for you.  Europe which has also opened up has had 4000 cases today instead of the us which had 47000 cases.  We need to be more like europe.  We have to face it.  The world has changed.  Hopefully it will be short lived with a great therapeutic or a vaccine.  Until then the world will have to learn how to deal with balancing economic activity vs lives lost, but believing that doing nothing would have left the economy humming along is just denial.



yes

The Wall Street Journal interviewed COVID 19 victims in Arizona and Texas this week.   All attended nightclubs and bars

WSJ * June 27,* 2020


----------



## Conan (Jun 27, 2020)

I can’t vouch personally for the accuracy of this graph, but if true...


----------



## bbodb1 (Jun 27, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> My CCRC in Fort Worth, TX which had just started to carefully open up has reverted back to "Lockdown" Status this time with masks mandatory.  I'm not sure anymore if I will live to see this end...
> 
> The good news is that none of our 400+ residents have been infected with the virus...
> 
> George


George,

As much as anyone can be remotely, many here are here for you.  Hang in there, sir - and reach out to TUG to keep your spirits up.  
Picture yourself here.....


----------



## CO skier (Jun 29, 2020)




----------



## CO skier (Jun 29, 2020)

And from the World Health Organization:


----------



## Brett (Jun 29, 2020)

CO skier said:


> And from the World Health Organization:



June 29, 2020






June 29, 2020


----------



## DrQ (Jun 29, 2020)

CO skier said:


> View attachment 22657


The COVID related death rates and hospitalization rates are the key tracking figures.

The infection rate is useless because:

It is taking too long to get results
Only a small percentage of the population is being tested
There is no effective contact tracing done as the result of a positive test
When the hospitals become choked with C-19 patients, it amplifies the deaths due to the causes.

Or we could adopt the motto, "Work makes you free" and keep on marching.


----------



## Conan (Jun 29, 2020)

DrQ said:


> The COVID related death rates and hospitalization rates are the key tracking figures.


No doubt, but in a number of States hospitalization rates, ICU admissions, and even death rates are being suppressed.
In Florida, for example:

*Warning about ER, In-patient admissions and death information related to cases*
 "There is *no active count *of COVID-19 positive persons admitted to a hospital ER or as an in-patient in the state of Florida. 

 Therefore, any statement regarding the current trend in ER and hospital admissions _(and deaths-more on that below) _are entirenly *non-evidence based. *

The Florida Department of Health (DOH) has never provided data about the number of people _*currently *_hospitalized or in the emergency room who are COVID-19 positive. They do not provide dates for when COVID-19 persons were admitted to or discharged from the ER or as in-patients to a hospital. 

The only hospital surveillance data available to the public is the AHCA current bed availability data (see note about that data to the left) and the Florida Metrics data published by DOH every Sunday, which counts the total number of legal Florida residents who visited an ER in the state of Florida with symptoms matching the key terms of influenza and COVID-19 (reported by week).  

Additionally, *DOH does not provide the date of death for any case. *The chart on the now-disabled DOH dshboard showing resident deaths by date is just that - residents only by date of death for cases where a death certificate has been received and the date of death verified by the state. 

The CDC warns "delays in reporting a person's death to the state can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death." 

According to internal DOH records, deaths reported by DOH were reported an average 7-21 days after the COVID-19 positive person died (date from March through mid-June_, with some deaths reported as late as 44 days after death."

Source: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/  ["Notes and Warnings" tab]


----------



## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2020)

Conan said:


> No doubt, but in a number of States hospitalization rates, ICU admissions, and even death rates are being suppressed.



This is the problem predicted some time ago and which is now becoming true. We simply are not being provided the info needed to make informed decisions by the government and local hospitals. I know this is occurring in Florida and Texas (it has been widely reported in the last ~24 hours that Texas had stopped updating ICU utilization once it hit 100% on Thursday; https://apple.news/AL66K9GuUS8uMYj_98E9d9w). Which other states have stopped reporting?

If we don’t have transparent and accurate information, then we can only rely upon third party numbers which are naturally somewhat suspect. Even so, the anecdotal reports from medical professionals in the field are clear: the virus is spreading, people are sick, hospitals throughout the country are experiencing higher utilization, and the situation may get out of control. 

We must ask the hard questions...why is this information not being publicly published? Why hide it? Who benefits?

Note that in every other country (that I am aware of) the response to the virus is not political. Please let’s do our best not to force the moderators to close this thread.

For those of you in Florida and Texas, please be extra careful (in all things, not just avoiding the virus). You don’t want to go to hospital unless absolutely necessary.


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## geekette (Jun 29, 2020)

....Economic Shutdown of 2020 that was supposed to be the "answer." 

No, the shutdown was the option of last resort.   Nobody said it would stop the virus, because the virus was, is, and will be, unstoppable.  For now.  The "answers" are a combination of effective vaccine(s) and herd immunity.   Around the world.


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## CO skier (Jun 29, 2020)

DrQ said:


> The infection rate is useless


True.  But the numbers are large, which makes the measure more sensational.  That would explain why the mainstream news outlets are so focused on case count instead of a more representative measure.  There is no perfect measure, but death rate is much more representative than new reported cases, for the reasons you point out.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 29, 2020)

All I can do, and am doing, is to "fort up" - minimizing human contact, (Groceries at non-peak periods, respirator (full HEPA filtration) and gloves, let the car "bake in the sun" after grocery loads); and read all the research I can, and because of it, take the "witches brew" of OTC items and Vitamins (which I describes a few weeks ago in another post).

And I don't travel. . .


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## CPNY (Jun 29, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Of the protests I've seen many of those participating have been wearing masks.  Much more so than at the recent political rallies.


It’s debatable on whether masks work truthfully. Not a polical post or anything but a sleeve or handkerchief does not work. Neither does a surgical mask. Unless it’s a respirator mask, it’s not that effective. As fauci said, “if it makes you feel better. Sure wear a mask”

with that being said, I wear a mask, wore a mask WELL before it was mandated and will continue to wear a mask in public places.


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## DavidnRobin (Jun 29, 2020)

CPNY said:


> It’s debatable on whether masks work truthfully. Not a polical post or anything but a sleeve or handkerchief does not work. Neither does a surgical mask. Unless it’s a respirator mask, it’s not that effective. As fauci said, “if it makes you feel better. Sure wear a mask”
> 
> with that being said, I wear a mask, wore a mask WELL before it was mandated and will continue to wear a mask in public places.



Incorrect. Mask are proven to work to prevent SARS-COV-2 from being transmitted via air droplets. This is the most common means of transmission. (Fomite is secondary by far - Fomite => surface contaminated by viral particles)
I do agree that many people are wearing masks that are insufficient.
A person should not be able to blow out a flame (e.g. match) through their mask. But to state that it is not proven that masks work, or a respirator mask is needed, is blatantly false (and sounds quite political tbh).


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## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2020)

The recommendations from the CDC were updated yesterday.









						COVID-19 ARCHIVED WEBPAGE
					

This historical page is not up to date. Find the latest on COVID-19.




					www.cdc.gov
				






> CDC recommends that people wear cloth face coverings in public settings when around people outside of their household, especially when other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain.
> 
> Cloth face coverings may help prevent people who have COVID-19 from spreading the virus to others.
> 
> ...




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## Cornell (Jun 29, 2020)

Is this a new reco?  

_*Cloth face coverings should NOT be worn by children under the age of 2 or anyone who has trouble breathing, is unconscious, incapacitated, or otherwise unable to remove the mask without assistance *_


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## Luanne (Jun 29, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Is this a new reco?
> 
> _*Cloth face coverings should NOT be worn by children under the age of 2 or anyone who has trouble breathing, is unconscious, incapacitated, or otherwise unable to remove the mask without assistance *_


Sorry didn't read far enough back to see where this came from.


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## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Is this a new reco?
> 
> _*Cloth face coverings should NOT be worn by children under the age of 2 or anyone who has trouble breathing, is unconscious, incapacitated, or otherwise unable to remove the mask without assistance *_



We get it. You don’t trust the CDC because they have changed their recommendations over time...as is typical with science as new evidence is discovered. Rather than continue to discredit these recommendations, perhaps you should educate yourself on the process. Here’s a start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method


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## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Sorry didn't read far enough back to see where this came from.



If you look at the linked CDC page, you will find numerous links to studies supporting their evidence based recommendation.



> Recent Studies:
> Rothe C, Schunk M, Sothmann P, et al. Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany. The New England journal of medicine. 2020;382(10):970-971. PMID: 32003551external icon
> Zou L, Ruan F, Huang M, et al. SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients. The New England journal of medicine. 2020;382(12):1177-1179. PMID: 32074444external icon
> Pan X, Chen D, Xia Y, et al. Asymptomatic cases in a family cluster with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The Lancet Infectious diseases. 2020. PMID: 32087116external icon
> ...




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## Luanne (Jun 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> If you look at the linked CDC page, you will find numerous links to studies supporting their evidence based recommendation.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


When I first read Cornell's post I didn't know where the statement had come from.  Then I looked further up and saw it was from the CDC, along with other recommendations.


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## elaine (Jun 29, 2020)

please wear a mask. social distancing indoors without masks is (better than nothing) not nearly as effective as masks. Probably don't even need distancing with masks. And CHOOSE outdoors whenever possible.
CDC did a disservice saying no masks early on (fearing hoarding--it made zero sense). DH is in medical field--we saw that and said "WHAT??" And wore our old N95 basement construction masks in March.
Look at IHME new stats and covid predictions--astounding difference with masks.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 29, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> Incorrect. Mask are proven to work to prevent SARS-COV-2 from being transmitted via air droplets. This is the most common means of transmission. (Fomite is secondary by far - Fomite => surface contaminated by viral particles)
> I do agree that many people are wearing masks that are insufficient.
> A person should not be able to blow out a flame (e.g. match) through their mask. But to state that it is not proven that masks work, or a respirator mask is needed, is blatantly false (and sounds quite political tbh).
> 
> ...



A Respirator mask may be overkill, but in the microbiology world, there are no on/offs, merely higher and lower probabilities. Look at the number of healthcare workers who died in the last few Ebola epidemics, because they were not sufficiently paranoid. 

(I already had the HEPA respirator. I use it as protection when spraying my roses with fungicides. . . )


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## Cornell (Jun 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> We get it. You don’t trust the CDC because they have changed their recommendations over time...as is typical with science as new evidence is discovered. Rather than continue to discredit these recommendations, perhaps you should educate yourself on the process. Here’s a start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


HOly cow - such hostility.  I'm merely pointing out that it's a funny reco stating the obvious -- was meant to be light-hearted. 

I wear a  mask routinely so enough already.  The only place I don't wear one is walking my dog, riding my bike (no -- I'm not in a densely populated area), or at my gym.  OH, I don't wear one in my own home either.


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## mdditt2000 (Jun 29, 2020)

Masks should be required in public. 


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## elaine (Jun 29, 2020)

look down at trajectory thru Oct 1 for Covid if universal mask usage . According to IHME (a respected group of scientists/statisticians), "Increasing mask use to rates of 95% could reduce the number of estimated deaths due to COVID-19 substantially around the world. We estimate that increasing mask use could lead to reductions in the number of deaths by greater than 50% in many locations around the world, including..... some US states. [note: # of Covid cases is many times lower as well].








						IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org


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## pedro47 (Jun 29, 2020)

Today, I asked this couple this question in the grocery store. The couple were not wearing  masks.  . With the spike in COVID-19 virus. Which do you prefer. Wearing ?A masks in public or wearing a respirator in hospital?

They stop and start thinking. Their final answer were masks.


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## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2020)

Cornell said:


> HOly cow - such hostility.  I'm merely pointing out that it's a funny reco stating the obvious -- was meant to be light-hearted.
> 
> I wear a  mask routinely so enough already.  The only place I don't wear one is walking my dog, riding my bike (no -- I'm not in a densely populated area), or at my gym.  OH, I don't wear one in my own home either.



Wasn't meant to be hostile. However, I'm surprised you feign ignorance as to how your comments are taken by some of us after so many posts.


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## isisdave (Jun 29, 2020)

Wouldn't it be great if there were a federal health agency that would collect all the data daily, analyze it consistently, and make it available to the public and to the media?

They could require that those agencies reporting tests adhere to a common, data-rich format, and include, age, health status, reason for testing, results of any previous testing, etc.

They could call it the "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention"!  </sarcasm>

I agree with @MrQ that the most important metric is new hospitalizations, although I would like to see a distinction between "hospitalized BECAUSE OF Covid" and "hospitalized for something else but Covid positive."

And my two cents' worth on masks comes from Mother Theresa:  "We can do no great things, only small things with great love."

Here's another small thing I'm doing:  I bought 30 postcards and send one a day to various government officials.  Today's is going to the President and reads "Please re-enable the CDC, we need their help desperately."


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## elaine (Jun 29, 2020)

isisdave said:


> would collect all the data daily, analyze it consistently, and make it available to the public and to the media?


I know you're being sarcastic about the CDC, but the IHME has done just that.


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## DrQ (Jun 29, 2020)

isisdave said:


> I agree with @MrQ that the most important metric is new hospitalizations, although I would like to see a distinction between "*hospitalized BECAUSE OF Covid*" and "hospitalized for something else but Covid positive."


That was the intent of my post on that point.

It's too bad that the Govinatotors can't get together to adopt a normalized reporting model. Unfortunately, they are too busy skewing the numbers to support decisions which play to their contributors rather than the greater good.


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## Luanne (Jun 29, 2020)

DrQ said:


> That was the intent of my post on that point.
> 
> It's too bad that the Govinatotors can't get together to adopt a normalized reporting model. Unfortunately, they are too busy skewing the numbers to support decisions which play to their contributors rather than the greater good.


It's too bad we didn't have any kind of national standard for this.


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## DrQ (Jun 29, 2020)

Luanne said:


> It's too bad we didn't have any kind of national standard for this.


H L Mencken was right: "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." BOHICA


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## CPNY (Jun 29, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> Incorrect. Mask are proven to work to prevent SARS-COV-2 from being transmitted via air droplets. This is the most common means of transmission. (Fomite is secondary by far - Fomite => surface contaminated by viral particles)
> I do agree that many people are wearing masks that are insufficient.
> A person should not be able to blow out a flame (e.g. match) through their mask. But to state that it is not proven that masks work, or a respirator mask is needed, is blatantly false (and sounds quite political tbh).
> 
> ...


So you agree with me that people are wearing masks that are insufficient therefore debatable as to whether all masks (In general) work. Really wasn’t political and I stated that because I couldn’t wait to be accused of that. There are those in the medical community who will argue for and against masks. As Dr Fauci said, “it may help”. Yeah it helps,  but it’s not the end all be all. Again, I wear masks and I’m all for them because anything is better than nothing.


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## Luanne (Jun 29, 2020)

CPNY said:


> So you agree with me that people are wearing masks that are insufficient therefore debatable as to whether all masks (In general) work. Really wasn’t political and I stated that because I couldn’t wait to be accused of that. There are those in the medical community who will argue for and against masks. As Dr Fauci said, “it may help”. Yeah it helps,  but it’s not the end all be all. Again, I wear masks and I’m all for them because anything is better than nothing.


The best, and safest thing to do is to stay home.  Since that is just about impossible for most people, social distancing and wearing masks can help.


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## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2020)

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## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2020)

Bad news all over for the US.



> CDC says U.S. has 'way too much virus' to control pandemic as cases surge across country
> 
> The coronavirus is spreading too rapidly and too broadly for the U.S. to get it under control as some other countries have, Dr. Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday.
> 
> ...











						CDC says U.S. has 'way too much virus' to control pandemic as cases surge — CNBC
					

"What we have in the United States, it's hard to describe because it's so many different outbreaks," said Dr. Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the CDC.




					apple.news
				





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## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2020)

And very bad news for those of us in Los Angeles.









						L.A. County issues dire warning amid 'alarming increases' in coronavirus cases — Los Angeles Times
					

This is the scenario that L.A. County health officials most feared — that reopening would coincide with sudden jumps in coronavirus transmission.




					apple.news
				





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## davidvel (Jun 30, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> And very bad news for those of us in Los Angeles.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It will be interesting to see where the numbers go in the next 2-3 weeks, but LA has been doing well on the daily fatality rate, but there is a recent spike.  Yes, positive tests are increasing as testing ramps up to all time highs, but deaths not remotely following along.


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## TravelTime (Jun 30, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



What is the reason for the spike in the US? I am curious as to why the US is spiking but Europe did not. Some countries in Europe still have higher deaths per million than the US. It makes no sense to me why the US is different. Are deaths per million also spiking in the US? I am particularly interested in the comparison to Italy, France and UK. These countries had a worse epidemic than we did so what are they doing differently than us?


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## CO skier (Jun 30, 2020)

bluehende said:


> We have to face it.


Which is what Sweden's epidemiologist and politicians realized from the beginning, and US politicians still do not understand.

The US public policy is still focused on "containment" which ain't going to happen in a country of 325 million people -- quarantines and shutdowns are stop-gap measures and completely unsustainable.


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## TravelTime (Jun 30, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It will be interesting to see where the numbers go in the next 2-3 weeks, but LA has been doing well on the daily fatality rate, but there is a recent spike.  Yes, positive tests are increasing as testing ramps up to all time highs, but deaths not remotely following along.
> View attachment 22695



Yes, this is what I have been wondering. Are we also having a spike in death rates across the country?


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## TravelTime (Jun 30, 2020)

I was reading some funny ways to encourage mask usage. One was for a young child to shame the non-mask wearers. They could say in a loud voice something like “Why aren’t they wearing a mask? Do they want to kill me?” Another suggestion was to cough loudly when someone comes closer than within 6’ of distance from you. These were all suggested in jest but they are some great ideas!


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## jme (Jun 30, 2020)

News this morning:

*Coronavirus Cases Surging Amid Strains on Hospitals...
ICU beds in Houston filled with young...
States reverse openings, require masks...
Asymptomatic Carriers Easily Contaminate Surroundings... <<< very significant
Vegas Workers Sue Casinos Over Safety... 
WIRE: Virus Brings American Decline Out in the Open...
Those seeking tests meet long lines and delays...
Half of 'cured' patients still suffer... <<< very discouraging
LA issues dire warning... Sets New Daily Record...

Coronavirus mutation may have made virus more contagious: report*


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## pedro47 (Jun 30, 2020)

jme, your post is not good for the American population.  Is this the Rise and Fall of the United States?


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## CPNY (Jun 30, 2020)

jme said:


> News this morning:
> 
> *Coronavirus Cases Surging Amid Strains on Hospitals...
> ICU beds in Houston filled with young...
> ...


There is a Facebook group for “long haulers”. We are months in And still experiencing symptoms. Days of shortness of breath and others fine. Last week was a bad week, this week better. Tested negative for COVID yesterday (needed for Bahamas trip). I still wear a mask


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## bluehende (Jun 30, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Which is what Sweden's epidemiologist and politicians realized from the beginning, and US politicians still do not understand.
> 
> The US public policy is still focused on "containment" which ain't going to happen in a country of 325 million people -- quarantines and shutdowns are stop-gap measures and completely unsustainable.


Yet Sweden has in fact encouraged social distancing and stay at home.  They also are a country that trusts and listens to their government instead of taking pride in resisting it.  They are no wheres near herd immunity at this point and their numbers are not good with an overall death rate among the worst in Europe along with a current death rate right at the top.  Of course the comparison for sweden would be their neighbors that are orders of magnitude better at this point.  Imagine those graphs of deaths per 100,000 you posted in  post 140 and what they would look like.

How do you explain the EU with a population of446 million.  Their containment efforts have gone well.  They are reopened to the point of beyond where we are with no big rise in cases.  I agree that containment with quarantines and shutdowns are not in and of themselves a solution.  It is what happens after that.  In Europe they are actual listening to the scientists and getting the cases down to a point where they can deal with them through testing and isolation.  In Europe they find a hot spot test and quarantine those that are exposed.  The population happily complies for a variety of cultural and social reasons.  In the US we still have governors in denial while cases have increased 5 to 10 fold in a few weeks.  The science shows that wearing a mask contains the virus by as much as 80% (96% with an N95)  but in America masks have become political statements.  Below is a good article on mask wearing that gives links to studies.  In particular there is a link to a Lancet meta data analysis of transmission reduction. 

While your conclusion I fear is correct I have a very different take on the cause.  While the shutdowns and SAH orders may very possibly have been useless IMHO it is the actions we took after that caused that.  Our actions today will define the future of our numbers.

Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities.  
Attributed to Winston Churchill but may have come from an unknown Irishman









						COVID-19 and mask confusion: Separating myths from realities | COVID | UT Southwestern Medical Center
					

Wearing a mask to protect yourself and others against COVID-19 pandemic should be a no-brainer, but misinformation and mixed signals have created mask confusion. Dr. Sonja Bartolome, a specialist in lung disorders and pulmonary disease, separates the myths from the medical realities.




					utswmed.org


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## jme (Jun 30, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Yet Sweden has in fact encouraged social distancing and stay at home.  They also are a country that trusts and listens to their government instead of taking pride in resisting it.  They are no wheres near herd immunity at this point and their numbers are not good with an overall death rate among the worst in Europe along with a current death rate right at the top.  Of course the comparison for sweden would be their neighbors that are orders of magnitude better at this point.  Imagine those graphs of deaths per 100,000 you posted in  post 140 and what they would look like.
> 
> How do you explain the EU with a population of446 million.  Their containment efforts have gone well.  They are reopened to the point of beyond where we are with no big rise in cases.  I agree that containment with quarantines and shutdowns are not in and of themselves a solution.  It is what happens after that.  In Europe they are actual listening to the scientists and getting the cases down to a point where they can deal with them through testing and isolation.  In Europe they find a hot spot test and quarantine those that are exposed.  The population happily complies for a variety of cultural and social reasons.  In the US we still have governors in denial while cases have increased 5 to 10 fold in a few weeks.  The science shows that wearing a mask contains the virus by as much as 80% (96% with an N95)  but in America masks have become political statements.  Below is a good article on mask wearing that gives links to studies.  In particular there is a link to a Lancet meta data analysis of transmission reduction.
> 
> ...




Best science, research, and experience-based article I've read to date.  It blows a lot of people's "beliefs" out of the water.
It's what some of us always knew, and the author addresses it in a wonderful and comprehensive way.


----------



## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Yet Sweden has in fact encouraged social distancing and stay at home.  They also are a country that trusts and listens to their government instead of taking pride in resisting it.  They are no wheres near herd immunity at this point and their numbers are not good with an overall death rate among the worst in Europe along with a current death rate right at the top.  Of course the comparison for sweden would be their neighbors that are orders of magnitude better at this point.  Imagine those graphs of deaths per 100,000 you posted in  post 140 and what they would look like.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I am not sure I agree with the premise that Sweden is doing poorly.  Just look at this graph, the number of serious cases has been going down. The naysayers are always comparing to their neighbors forgetting that Sweden had an early spring break (mid February) and brought a lot of cases from Europe. Their neighbors had the spring breaks mid-March when travel restrictions were already in place so nobody traveled abroad. If you look at the number of cases in Sweden in March-April (most likely due to the travel in February) you will see I am right, Sweden started from a much higher base line.


*


Swedish Covid Expert Says the World Still Doesn’t Understand*



			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


----------



## geekette (Jun 30, 2020)

CPNY said:


> There is a Facebook group for “long haulers”. We are months in And still experiencing symptoms. Days of shortness of breath and others fine. Last week was a bad week, this week better. Tested negative for COVID yesterday (needed for Bahamas trip). I still wear a mask


I am so sorry.  I had indeed heard that being over it is not being over it.   I hope vestiges continue to fall away.


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## geekette (Jun 30, 2020)

I continue to wonder about mutations.  Are you better off getting west coast variety or east coast variety?  Is there now a midwest variety?

I am not sure that comparing country to country works without identifying which strain, and I'm not sure that info is going to be readily available any time soon.   I end up thinking, if I get it, will I get the mild or disastrous case?   Could it be that a 30 year old getting it in NM fares differently than had they got it in ME?  If so, do we know if the Brazil or Sweden strains are same as here?  If we know there are 2 different strains from how East vs West emerged here, will we also be dealing with the person that visited both coasts and middle America and came out with a 3rd strain??  

The mutation aspect fascinates me, yet I am far from a scientist, and simply waiting and watching for info on this.   But because of different strains, I'm not sure that state by state comparisons are reasonable, either.  Could be one state has a deadlier strain in circulation while another has the mild strain.


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## elaine (Jun 30, 2020)

I'm so upset about the debate over masks. Virtually all scientists/medical professionals say universal masks/face covering will substantially curb transmission. It's likely the ONLY way to slow Covid down--as it's not "going away" this summer like a typical flu cycle. I'm glad our Gov is a Dr. VA requires masks. Colleges require masks in the fall.
Where are the massive public service announcements--like we had in March about washing hands, etc.


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 30, 2020)

It's all starts at the Top with good leader ship. IMHO.


bluehende said:


> Yet Sweden has in fact encouraged social distancing and stay at home.  They also are a country that trusts and listens to their government instead of taking pride in resisting it.  They are no wheres near herd immunity at this point and their numbers are not good with an overall death rate among the worst in Europe along with a current death rate right at the top.  Of course the comparison for sweden would be their neighbors that are orders of magnitude better at this point.  Imagine those graphs of deaths per 100,000 you posted in  post 140 and what they would look like.
> 
> How do you explain the EU with a population of446 million.  Their containment efforts have gone well.  They are reopened to the point of beyond where we are with no big rise in cases.  I agree that containment with quarantines and shutdowns are not in and of themselves a solution.  It is what happens after that.  In Europe they are actual listening to the scientists and getting the cases down to a point where they can deal with them through testing and isolation.  In Europe they find a hot spot test and quarantine those that are exposed.  The population happily complies for a variety of cultural and social reasons.  In the US we still have governors in denial while cases have increased 5 to 10 fold in a few weeks.  The science shows that wearing a mask contains the virus by as much as 80% (96% with an N95)  but in America masks have become political statements.  Below is a good article on mask wearing that gives links to studies.  In particular there is a link to a Lancet meta data analysis of transmission reduction.
> 
> ...


----------



## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> It's all starts at the Top with good leader ship. IMHO.


you are probably referring to the governors but that would be a political comment













						U.S. states with the highest COVID rates 2022 | Statista
					

As of Dec. 2022, two U.S. states had COVID rates higher than 41 cases per 100 population. Maryland had the lowest rate of cases.




					www.statista.com


----------



## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

U.S. COVID death rate by state 2022 | Statista
					

As of December 2022, Mississippi had the highest COVID death rate in the U.S., with 439 deaths per 100,000 population. Hawaii had the lowest death rate.




					www.statista.com


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## Brett (Jun 30, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> you are probably referring to the governors but that would be a political comment



could be - or the poster could be referring to national leadership ..... but that would be political


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## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

Brett said:


> could be - or the poster could be referring to national leadership ..... but that would be political
> 
> View attachment 22719


data mining.


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## Luanne (Jun 30, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> you are probably referring to the governors but that would be a political comment
> 
> View attachment 22715
> 
> ...


No.  There should have been a federal policy.


----------



## cman (Jun 30, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Yes, this is what I have been wondering. Are we also having a spike in death rates across the country?


Death rates for the US are going down since April.


----------



## Cornell (Jun 30, 2020)

@cman Yesterday had the lowest cases of deaths in the US since the peak in April.  Death cases are often lower on Monday b/c of weekend-reporting issues, but nonetheless, it further illustrates your point.


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## CPNY (Jun 30, 2020)

I think we can all agree on one thing. Be careful and staying safe is important.


Luanne said:


> No.  There should have been a federal policy.


thats like saying there should have been a European policy. Each state is different. NY should have acted faster and more efficiently.


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## jme (Jun 30, 2020)

cman said:


> Death rates for the US are going down since April.
> 
> View attachment 22720



Very happy about that, but lest anyone say, "Wow Let's party!".....

Death is certainly the worst outcome for those infected, but there are other significant consequences to consider. 
Full recoveries are not always the case, in fact the %'s of incomplete recoveries are rising as more people recover. 
This applies to both older people and younger people. I am not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but the mindset that all is going well 
is naive, especially when the infection rate is increasing on a large scale. Few "flu's" have ever had such dire consequences.
Not to mention the strains are mutating and we are yet to understand the ramifications of that. 

This is a highly troubling fact:
*Half of 'cured' patients still suffer...*

What the Covid19 virus does to lungs is quite brutal (old & young), and other organs can also be affected, even the heart.

Has this article below already fallen on deaf ears since it was posted this morning?......
We are nowhere near the end of this pandemic. Many hoped and expected it to be over by now, but it's not, 
so we must be diligent to do what is required to reach that end. 









						COVID-19 and mask confusion: Separating myths from realities | COVID | UT Southwestern Medical Center
					

Wearing a mask to protect yourself and others against COVID-19 pandemic should be a no-brainer, but misinformation and mixed signals have created mask confusion. Dr. Sonja Bartolome, a specialist in lung disorders and pulmonary disease, separates the myths from the medical realities.




					utswmed.org


----------



## cman (Jun 30, 2020)

jme said:


> Very happy about that, but lest anyone say, "Wow Let's party!".....
> 
> Death is certainly the worst outcome for those infected, but there are other significant consequences to consider.
> Full recoveries are not always the case, in fact the %'s of incomplete recoveries are rising as more people recover.
> ...



I agree. Also factor in the fact that deaths lag infections by a few weeks. We won't see the result of the current rise in infections until the middle of July.

It's just curious to me as to why when the infection rate is soaring, deaths in even the hardest hit states are either decreasing or remain flat. Could it be that the newly infected are younger? Are doctors better able to treat it?


----------



## Luanne (Jun 30, 2020)

CPNY said:


> I think we can all agree on one thing. Be careful and staying safe is important.
> 
> thats like saying there should have been a European policy. Each state is different. NY should have acted faster and more efficiently.


I stand by my statement.


----------



## Cornell (Jun 30, 2020)

cman said:


> I agree. Also factor in the fact that deaths lag infections by a few weeks. We won't see the result of the current rise in infections until the middle of July.
> 
> It's just curious to me as to why the infection rate is soaring, deaths in even the hardest hit states are either decreasing or remain flat. Could it be that the newly infected are younger? Are doctors better able to treat it?


The median age of those infected has dropped a lot.  I believe in FL it is now 35 (don't quote me on that exact figure).


----------



## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

jme said:


> *Half of 'cured' patients still suffer...*


true, but who has never had lingering flu effects for weeks if not even months? Have we forgotten so fast?

This is from the first link below:
"Patients who survive influenza A (H7N9) virus infection are at risk of physical and psychological complications of lung injury and multi-organ dysfunction. However, there were no prospectively individualized assessments of physiological, functional and quality-of-life measures after hospital discharge. The current study aims to assess the main determinants of functional disability of these patients during the follow-up. Fifty-six influenza A (H7N9) survivors were investigated during the 2-year after discharge from the hospital. Results show interstitial change and fibrosis on pulmonary imaging remained 6 months after hospital discharge. Both ventilation and diffusion dysfunction improved, but restrictive and obstructive patterns on ventilation function test persisted throughout the follow-up period. For patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome lung functions improved faster during the first six months. Role-physical and Role-emotional domains in the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey were worse than those of a sex- and age-matched general population group. The quality of life of survivors with ARDS was lower than those with no ARDS. Our findings suggest that pulmonary function and imaging findings improved during the first 6 months especially for those with ARDS, however long-term lung disability and psychological impairment in H7N9 survivors persisted at 2 years after discharge from the hospital"









						Long term outcomes in survivors of epidemic Influenza A (H7N9) virus infection - Scientific Reports
					

Patients who survive influenza A (H7N9) virus infection are at risk of physical and psychological complications of lung injury and multi-organ dysfunction. However, there were no prospectively individualized assessments of physiological, functional and quality-of-life measures after hospital...




					www.nature.com
				












						Post-viral syndrome: Symptoms, causes, and treatment
					

Post-viral syndrome, or post-viral fatigue, refers to tiredness or weakness that lingers after a person fights off a viral infection. Learn more here.




					www.medicalnewstoday.com
				












						Long Term Health Effect of the Flu
					

The flu can have some long-term effects, like increased risk of heart attack and stroke. Find out more about long-term effects of the flu.




					www.health.com


----------



## CPNY (Jun 30, 2020)

Cornell said:


> The median age of those infected has dropped a lot.  I believe in FL it is now 35 (don't quote me on that exact figure).


Everyone is getting tested here in Florida. Not to mention, people being admitted to the hospital that would have been sent home a Month ago


----------



## Luanne (Jun 30, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Everyone is getting tested here in Florida. Not to mention, people being admitted to the hospital that would have been sent home a Month ago


Is this new?  I've been talking to my bff, who lives there, every week and she hasn't mentioned it.  I haven't talked to her yet this week though.


----------



## cman (Jun 30, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Everyone is getting tested here in Florida. *Not to mention, people being admitted to the hospital that would have been sent home a Month ago*



Is this really happening. Do you have a source.


----------



## cman (Jun 30, 2020)

Cornell said:


> The median age of those infected has dropped a lot.  I believe in FL it is now 35 (don't quote me on that exact figure).


I saw this on the Florida C19 dashboard. The real shocker was the fact that the majority of the new cases are in the 25-34 year age group.


----------



## Cornell (Jun 30, 2020)

cman said:


> I saw this on the Florida C19 dashboard. The real shocker was the fact that the majority of the new cases are in the 25-34 year age group.
> 
> View attachment 22723


I posted about this a few days ago. The case rate is very high . But hospitals have no strain on the system. Median age has plummeted which is a GOOD THING. Docs are reporting less acute cases that are in hospital and shorter stays.  The majority of people getting sick now are going to recover quickly .


----------



## Luanne (Jun 30, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I posted about this a few days ago. The case rate is very high . But hospitals have no strain on the system. Median age has plummeted which is a GOOD THING. Docs are reporting less acute cases that are in hospital and shorter stays.  *The majority of people getting sick now are going to recover quickly *.


If you changed that to "the majority of people getting sick now *may* recover quickly I would be happier. There was various articles stating that younger people may not recover as quickly as originally thought.


----------



## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

Luanne said:


> There was various articles stating that younger people may not recover as quickly as originally thought.


were those scientific studies?


----------



## Luanne (Jun 30, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> were those scientific studies?


Was there a scientific study saying *The majority of people getting sick now are going to recover quickly *? Provide one for that and I'll see what I can dig up on my statement. I know one was from Johns Hopkins.


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 30, 2020)

Luanne said:


> No.  There should have been a federal policy.


Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!.


----------



## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Was there a scientific study saying *The majority of people getting sick now are going to recover quickly *? Provide one for that and I'll see what I can dig up on my statement. I know one was from Johns Hopkins.


I did not say that but what she meant is that the average age of those sick is much lower now so they should recover quickly, it is pretty obvious if you compare with older people.  If you can now please provide the study.


----------



## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

interesting article about people who may still test positive but they are fully recovered and most likely do not spread the virus

*Positive Covid-19 tests kept a mom and baby apart for 55 days. Experts see it as a bigger testing problem*








						Positive Covid-19 tests kept a mom and baby apart for 55 days. Experts see it as a bigger testing problem
					

Positive Covid-19 tests kept a mother and baby in Montreal apart for eight weeks. Experts say the case is a sign of a bigger problem with testing.




					www.statnews.com


----------



## VacationForever (Jun 30, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> And very bad news for those of us in Los Angeles.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Sounds like we need to bag our September trip to Marriott's Newport Coast.


----------



## "Roger" (Jun 30, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Everyone is getting tested here in Florida. ...


Could you explain? 

From the Miami Herald...Testing in Florida has seen steady growth. Experts suggest it's still not enough. A recent study in Miami-Dade County found that current limited testing capacity indicates the actual infection rate is likely ten times higher. 

While I haven't counted, Florida ranks about toward the middle of the pack with regard to the number of people tested per million among the fifty states.

So, I am not sure what you are saying.


----------



## CPNY (Jun 30, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I posted about this a few days ago. The case rate is very high . But hospitals have no strain on the system. Median age has plummeted which is a GOOD THING. Docs are reporting less acute cases that are in hospital and shorter stays.  The majority of people getting sick now are going to recover quickly .



Less acute with shorter stays, which means patients presenting with symptoms they would have been sent home with a month or two ago. If I showed up to the hospital today with the same symptoms I had in March, I’d be admitted and put on oxygen. Now, those same cases are going in, getting a bed and going home. The health system collect a fat check.


----------



## Cornell (Jun 30, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Less acute with shorter stays, which means patients presenting with symptoms they would have been sent home with a month or two ago. If I showed up to the hospital today with the same symptoms I had in March, I’d be admitted and put on oxygen. Now, those same cases are going in, getting a bed and going home. The health system collect a fat check.


YUP -- and many hospitalizations  that are now listed as "a Covid hospitalization" are due to the fact that someone is in hospital who HAS Covid, they are not in the hospital BECAUSE of Covid.


----------



## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Less acute with shorter stays, which means patients presenting with symptoms they would have been sent home with a month or two ago. If I showed up to the hospital today with the same symptoms I had in March, I’d be admitted and put on oxygen. Now, those same cases are going in, getting a bed and going home. The health system collect a fat check.


The hospitals have a financial incentive to admit patients with milder symptoms since the feds are subsidizing all the Covid related treatments.


----------



## Ken555 (Jun 30, 2020)

I heard this afternoon that Los Angeles is anticipating hospital utilization at 100% next week. I’m still searching for details on this, but with the increase in cases it makes sense to me. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Luanne (Jun 30, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I did not say that but what she meant is that the average age of those sick is much lower now so they should recover quickly, it is pretty obvious if you compare with older people.  If you can now please provide the study.


So I can make a statement and have to provide proof of a _scientific study._  But others, in this case Cornell can put a statement out there.

Would you have been happier if I'd just asked her to change the words?  

And where is your scientific study proving the average age of those sick is much lower now so they should recover quickly.


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## Cornell (Jun 30, 2020)

States reported 575 US COV2 deaths today. That's the lowest Tuesday figure since Mar 24 and down from last week's 703. The 7-day avg falls to 525.


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## bluehende (Jun 30, 2020)

Cornell said:


> YUP -- and many hospitalizations  that are now listed as "a Covid hospitalization" are due to the fact that someone is in hospital who HAS Covid, they are not in the hospital BECAUSE of Covid.


Can you give a source for this,  I cannot find any reference to good hospital numbers in FL.  Also I would think a hospital would want to know if a patient has covid.  I wonder why you would see something nefarious in a DR doing a test and making a diagnosis.  What is more important is whether a patient needs to be treated different due to a diagnosed illness.  Here is the best I can find on FL.  It chronicles the increase of close to 3 fold of Emergency Department visits due to flu or covid like  illness in the 2 weeks leading up to the week of 6/15.





__





						ArcGIS Dashboards Classic
					






					fdoh.maps.arcgis.com
				






then navigate to the health metrics tab.


----------



## DannyTS (Jun 30, 2020)

One may wonder if those younger and not as severely ill had to be hospitalized at all:

"The patients are younger and not as severely ill as they were during the first wave in April, and doctors and nurses have gained valuable experience in the months-long pandemic — leading to shorter hospital stays and better outcomes "









						Younger, Less Sick Coronavirus Patients Surging Through Hospitals
					

Miami-Dade hospitals report far more beds available than beds filled with COVID patients. Still, hospital administrators and emergency room physicians say they’re concerned by the surge, and that they’ve resumed near daily meetings with state regulators




					www.govtech.com


----------



## Luanne (Jun 30, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> One may wonder if those younger and not as severely ill had to be hospitalized at all:
> 
> "The patients are younger and not as severely ill as they were during the first wave in April, and doctors and nurses have gained valuable experience in the months-long pandemic — leading to shorter hospital stays and better outcomes "
> 
> ...


Is this a scientific study.


----------



## amycurl (Jun 30, 2020)

Yes, I'm not sure that "govtech.com" is any kind of credible source. 

ICUs are filling up, based on *both* COVID-19 cases and delayed care. This fact, combined with increased cases, is not a good thing in any way, shape, or form.

And we need waaaaay more testing. And waaaay more contact tracing. Because it is in the testing, and the contact tracing, and the isolation of those that interacted with a positive person, can we ever hope to reduce the PREVENTABLE deaths from COVID-19. And the quicker we do this, the quicker we can get back to "normal." (Although, I would posit, the pandemic is showing how not-great the before "normal" was in the US, and I hope we come through this into something *better* than we were before.)


----------



## Cornell (Jun 30, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Can you give a source for this,  I cannot find any reference to good hospital numbers in FL.  Also I would think a hospital would want to know if a patient has covid.  I wonder why you would see something nefarious in a DR doing a test and making a diagnosis.  What is more important is whether a patient needs to be treated different due to a diagnosed illness.  Here is the best I can find on FL.  It chronicles the increase of close to 3 fold of Emergency Department visits due to flu or covid like  illness in the 2 weeks leading up to the week of 6/15.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"About a quarter of all patients admitted to the city’s main public hospital over the past two weeks tested positive for the coronavirus, including those who came in from car crashes, heart attacks and other problems."










						Florida’s Covid Cases Up Fivefold in 2 Weeks: ‘The Numbers Are Scary’ (Published 2020)
					

A surge in coronavirus cases has prompted officials to prohibit alcohol sales in bars and close Miami beaches for the coming holiday. But will it be enough?




					www.nytimes.com
				




I don't think it's nefarious at all to think that a dr, should be testing for C19.  Not sure why you inferred that from my comments.  Of course, all patients in a hospital should be tested for C19, no matter why they are there.  It's a contagious disease.  

I'm just trying to make the point that an increase in hospitalizations isn't necessarily b/c someone walked in saying "I'm sick with C19".  Now that the hospitals are open for elective surgeries, people going to the ER, etc, it stands to reason that patients will be admitted for other reasons and then  discovered that they have C19.  They will then be classified as a hospitalization w/C19.


----------



## bluehende (Jun 30, 2020)

]


Cornell said:


> "About a quarter of all patients admitted to the city’s main public hospital over the past two weeks tested positive for the coronavirus, including those who came in from car crashes, heart attacks and other problems."
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Nowhere in that article does it even mention hospitals inflating covid cases which was your comment I replied to.

I actually linked to data that does show that there are increases in hospitalizations due to people walking in saying "I am sick with C19"


----------



## Passepartout (Jun 30, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I heard this afternoon that Los Angeles is anticipating hospital utilization at 100% next week. I’m still searching for details on this, but with the increase in cases it makes sense to me.


I saw on CBS News that L.A. hospital beds would reach 100% next month, and that one person out of 146 in L.A. County was positive and don't know it. This is serious folks!

As I see it, we are getting blasted with such an assault of information, and without any uniform guidance, that everyone is free to cherry-pick whatever set of statistics they want to back up their own opinions and prejudices. Meanwhile people get sick and many die.


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## geist1223 (Jun 30, 2020)

Read today that where State has strict and enforced Masking Policy infection rates are going down. Where there is no Policy or Policy not enforced (Florida, Texas, California) rates are sky rocketing. When testing shows 5% or less positive it is considered under control.

By the way are you ready for the next Swine Flu coming out of guess where - China.


----------



## TravelTime (Jun 30, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Read today that where State has strict and enforced Masking Policy infection rates are going down. Where there is no Policy or Policy not enforced (Florida, Texas, California) rates are sky rocketing. When testing shows 5% or less positive it is considered under control.
> 
> By the way are you ready for the next Swine Flu coming out of guess where - China.



California has a mandatory mask policy. I think parts of Florida also have mandatory mask policies. I have friends and family in FL and my friend says masks are required in Dade and Broward counties but I could be wrong. Actually, Just heard on CNN that mask mandate is being enforced in Miami with fines.

Just some anecdotal data. Today I heard we have had about 4-5 covid cases in our small country club community. We have about 300 families living here. The first reported case has already completely recovered and her husband never tested positive. The other families are currently doing a quarantine as they recover. They did contact tracing on all cases and told us when and where they had been. We get weekly updates on the status. Our club is slowing down the reopening and requiring masks, social distancing, hand hygiene, etc.

Also, anyone in California who reports possible symptoms to their doctor is sent for Covid testing first to rule it out before looking at other possibilities. This happened to me and I tested negative, then we figured out the source of my symptoms and I am recovering now.

I have always been more concerned about death rates than cases. I always assumed that when the re-openings started, that cases would go up. I think the media should do more reporting on death rates and compare that to other countries. We might not actually be as bad off as it seems. More testing = more cases. Younger people getting sick = less deaths. Most people do not get severely ill and most recover. Many people are asymptomatic. This has not changed from the beginning of the outbreak. Only the numbers are changing.

I joined a FB group of people who have recovered from Covid. There is some positive news in that group. There was a great story yesterday of someone who has recovered, he has a positive attitude and he is challenging himself to exercise and get involved with life. Of course, I assume that this group would self select so its members would have had more serious cases than average.

I am ready to start carefully getting out of my house. This weekend, we are having some friends over for July 4th weekend. I have not seen them since Thanksgiving so this will be fun. We are just staying home and hanging out, taking walks, eating good meals and going in the pool.  I am hoping to drive down to Morgan Hill to visit some other friends as soon as they have time.

I am also looking into volunteer opportunities with CASA (Court Appointed Special Advocates). I was previously approved to volunteer but for personal reasons I did not move forward. The email said "During the pandemic, there has been an immense increase in youth who have been removed from their homes and placed in foster care due to neglect and abuse." I think the timing is right to do something meaningful for my community. I am hoping my approval is still valid so I can participate in the August training. It is being done by Zoom due to Covid. This is a very sad outcome of Covid. To me, abusing children is worse than dying from Covid.

I have been busy this week in looking on how to live my post Covid life. Nothing will be the same anymore, at least not for awhile, but I am tired of isolating at home if there are safe ways to get out.

BTW, I think we are past the mask debate. I was skeptical in the beginning when the advice first changed but I have bought into it for now. (Thanks to TUG, you guys influenced me so these threads do work!) I do not debate it anymore. Like I said in months prior, I have always worn a mask in case it helps. My blue masks finally arrived so I have a good supply now. My husband also found a package of 50 in the store. I think everyone should wear a mask. It is the right thing to do based on what we know today. I wish we had a federal mandate or a consistent state mandate in every state. I am tired of seeing massless people protesting for their rights to spread the disease. The country is in trouble and we need to work together to defeat Covid.


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## Cornell (Jun 30, 2020)

@TravelTime  You are a good person. What you are doing for CASA touches my heart


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## TravelTime (Jun 30, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @TravelTime  You are a good person. What you are doing for CASA touches my heart



Thank you! I emailed the coordinator today to see if my approval is still valid and what the next steps are. I'll let you know if I qualify.


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## Ken555 (Jun 30, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> More testing = more cases.



Nonsense.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Cornell (Jun 30, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Read today that where State has strict and enforced Masking Policy infection rates are going down. Where there is no Policy or Policy not enforced (Florida, Texas, California) rates are sky rocketing. When testing shows 5% or less positive it is considered under control.
> 
> By the way are you ready for the next Swine Flu coming out of guess where - China.


I'm not challenging you on this post, just confused -- I thought I read that CA has a statewide mask policy.  

Maybe it's new enough that the policy hasn't "kicked in".  

Hard to keep track & to make sense of it all.


----------



## TravelTime (Jun 30, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I'm not challenging you on this post, just confused -- I thought I read that CA has a statewide mask policy.
> 
> Maybe it's new enough that the policy hasn't "kicked in".
> 
> Hard to keep track & to make sense of it all.



Yes we have a mandatory mask policy in CA and more people are complying. There is very high compliance in the urban/suburban areas from what I hear and growing compliance in the semi-rural and rural areas. I think mask usage is up from before the mandate but this is just anecdotal and I do not have a study to support it.


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## TravelTime (Jun 30, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Nonsense.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



That may be so. I am a bit tired of debating this.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jun 30, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> ...I am also looking into volunteer opportunities with CASA (Court Appointed Special Advocates). I was previously approved to volunteer but for personal reasons I did not move forward. The email said "During the pandemic, there has been an immense increase in youth who have been removed from their homes and placed in foster care due to neglect and abuse." I think the timing is right to do something meaningful for my community. I am hoping my approval is still valid so I can participate in the August training. It is being done by Zoom due to Covid. This is a very sad outcome of Covid. To me, abusing children is worse than dying from Covid...



If this is the same CASA as we have around here, (and I believe it to be), high marks to you @TravelTime for doing this!  As you might recall, I work in a public school at the elementary level and the stories we both know all too well about what kids have to endure is heart breaking.  I see a steady increase in the number of kids coming from single parent homes and it is much more likely those kids are going to find trouble than kids from 2 parent households where mom and dad are both actively parenting.  To be sure, there are some single parent households doing an unbelievable job but the odds are so stacked against them.  CASA (at least in our area) advocates operate as a guide for the child through the legal system and offer perspectives to the judge about what is best for the child.  It is a hard job that (unfortunately) has a lot of demand these days.  Best of luck to you as you pursue this!


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## bluehende (Jun 30, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> California has a mandatory mask policy. I think parts of Florida also have mandatory mask policies. I have friends and family in FL and my friend says masks are required in Dade and Broward counties but I could be wrong. Actually, Just heard on CNN that mask mandate is being enforced in Miami with fines.
> 
> Just some anecdotal data. Today I heard we have had about 4-5 covid cases in our small country club community. We have about 300 families living here. The first reported case has already completely recovered and her husband never tested positive. The other families are currently doing a quarantine as they recover. They did contact tracing on all cases and told us when and where they had been. We get weekly updates on the status. Our club is slowing down the reopening and requiring masks, social distancing, hand hygiene, etc.
> 
> ...


In FL the Governor over rode local mask requirements up to june 19.  Miami put theirs in on june 23.


----------



## TravelTime (Jun 30, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> If this is the same CASA as we have around here, (and I believe it to be), high marks to you @TravelTime for doing this!  As you might recall, I work in a public school at the elementary level and the stories we both know all too well about what kids have to endure is heart breaking.  I see a steady increase in the number of kids coming from single parent homes and it is much more likely those kids are going to find trouble than kids from 2 parent households where mom and dad are both actively parenting.  To be sure, there are some single parent households doing an unbelievable job but the odds are so stacked against them.  CASA (at least in our area) advocates operate as a guide for the child through the legal system and offer perspectives to the judge about what is best for the child.  It is a hard job that (unfortunately) has a lot of demand these days.  Best of luck to you as you pursue this!



I think it is the same CASA. There are CASAs in various counties throughout the USA, from what I understand. The concept is the same but tailored to the needs of the county.


----------



## PigsDad (Jun 30, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I'm not challenging you on this post, just confused -- I thought I read that CA has a statewide mask policy.
> 
> Maybe it's new enough that the policy hasn't "kicked in".


It is only a week or two old, so that may be the case.

It is interesting looking at Colorado (my home) data.  We only had a state-wide recommendation for masks, but a few counties have issued orders.  My county issued mask orders mid-May, and looking at the current data, it is doing much better than most counties despite being one of the more populated counties.  Coincidence?  I don't think so.

Kurt


----------



## Ken555 (Jun 30, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> That may be so. I am a bit tired of debating this.



So am I. It’s just absurd to say or imply that more tests create more cases. It doesn’t work like that... we need more testing so we know more accurately how many true cases there are. Testing doesn’t create cases...

No, more testing doesn’t explain the rise of covid-19 cases in the U.S.


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/06/22/no-more-testing-doesnt-explain-rise-covid-19-cases-us/
		


WHO says record coronavirus numbers is not just because of more testing 








						WHO says record number of coronavirus cases isn't just because of more testing
					

"We do not believe that this is a testing phenomenon," Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's emergencies program, said.




					www.cnbc.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## davidvel (Jun 30, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Nonsense.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


More testing will show fewer cases than less testing?


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## Ken555 (Jun 30, 2020)

davidvel said:


> More testing will show fewer cases than less testing?



See above. That’s not the issue.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## davidvel (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> So am I. It’s just absurd to say or imply that more tests create more cases. It doesn’t work like that... we need more testing so we know more accurately how many true cases there are. Testing doesn’t create cases...
> 
> No, more testing doesn’t explain the rise of covid-19 cases in the U.S.
> 
> ...


Who said more testing *creates *more cases? Clearly, more testing will show more positive cases, unless there aren't any.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> So am I. It’s just absurd to say or imply that more tests create more cases. It doesn’t work like that... we need more testing so we know more accurately how many true cases there are. Testing doesn’t create cases...
> 
> No, more testing doesn’t explain the rise of covid-19 cases in the U.S.
> 
> ...


Do you feel like people comply with the mask order in your county ?  WE have a state-wide mask order and I feel that there is very high compliance where I live.  Certainly not all, but a large percentage of people are wearing them in stores, for instance.


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## CO skier (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> It’s just absurd to say or imply that more tests create more cases. It doesn’t work like that...


Of course it doesn't.  More tests DETECT more cases.  Which is why "new cases" is a useless measure of the effect of Covid-19.  The end result, deaths, is a "truer" measure of the effect of Covid-19.


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## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Who said more testing *creates *more cases? Clearly, more testing will show more positive cases, unless there aren't any.



When someone posts “more testing = more cases” (scroll up for the post) it’s either an incomplete thought or they mean testing creates cases. Absolutely more testing will discover more cases, but the current estimate is that we have significantly more cases than we think, as some of us postulated here months ago. I suspect you and I actually agree on how this is done.


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## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Do you feel like people comply with the mask order in your county ? WE have a state-wide mask order and I feel that there is very high compliance where I live. Certainly not all, but a large percentage of people are wearing them in stores, for instance.



I’m in Los Angeles. We have had a mask requirement since mid-May. Yes, I think most people are wearing masks.


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## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Of course it doesn't. More tests DETECT more cases. Which is why "new cases" is a useless measure of the effect of Covid-19.



It’s my understanding that the reason for testing is to confirm how prevalent the disease has spread, not that they are seeking “new cases”.


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## CO skier (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> It’s my understanding that the reason for testing is to confirm how prevalent the disease has spread, not that they are seeking “new cases”.


It is my understanding that Covid-19 testing is mostly on the order of a doctor for patients presenting Covid-19 symptoms.  It has nothing to do with the prevalence of the spread, which would be based on random testing.

If this is true, the actual infection rate or death rate could be flattened or going down while the "new positive case rate" goes up.


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## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

CO skier said:


> It is my understanding that Covid-19 testing is mostly on the order of a doctor for patients presenting Covid-19 symptoms. It has nothing to do with the prevalence of the spread, which would be based on random testing.
> 
> If this is true, the actual infection rate or death rate could be flattened or going down while the "new positive case rate" goes up.



Of course testing is important for those who believe they have C19. But the reason experts keep saying we need much more testing is because they want to know the full extent of the spread. So yes, two goals. I really didn’t think I needed to state the obvious about testing those who are sick, but I guess I should have.


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## klpca (Jul 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> California has a mandatory mask policy. I think parts of Florida also have mandatory mask policies. I have friends and family in FL and my friend says masks are required in Dade and Broward counties but I could be wrong. Actually, Just heard on CNN that mask mandate is being enforced in Miami with fines.
> 
> Just some anecdotal data. Today I heard we have had about 4-5 covid cases in our small country club community. We have about 300 families living here. The first reported case has already completely recovered and her husband never tested positive. The other families are currently doing a quarantine as they recover. They did contact tracing on all cases and told us when and where they had been. We get weekly updates on the status. Our club is slowing down the reopening and requiring masks, social distancing, hand hygiene, etc.
> 
> ...


I will be interested in seeing how being a CASA volunteer works for you. I have toyed with the idea for years but being at times and overly empathetic person, I am worried how I would react in certain situations. Please start a thread if you can when you start.


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## CO skier (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Of course testing is important for those who believe they have C19. But the reason experts keep saying we need much more testing is because they want to know the full extent of the spread. So yes, two goals. I really didn’t think I needed to state the obvious about testing those who are sick, but I guess I should have.


Nice backpedal.


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## TravelTime (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> So am I. It’s just absurd to say or imply that more tests create more cases. It doesn’t work like that... we need more testing so we know more accurately how many true cases there are. Testing doesn’t create cases...
> 
> No, more testing doesn’t explain the rise of covid-19 cases in the U.S.
> 
> ...



I did not mean to say testing creates cases. What I meant is exactly what you said. I guess I phrased it wrong.


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## TravelTime (Jul 1, 2020)

klpca said:


> I will be interested in seeing how being a CASA volunteer works for you. I have toyed with the idea for years but being at times and overly empathetic person, I am worried how I would react in certain situations. Please start a thread if you can when you start.



Yes I would love to start a thread and share what I learn and my experience. I hope I hear good news this week that I am already qualified. I really do not want to have to submit a new application.


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## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Nice backpedal.



Really? You misinterpret my post and then you don’t believe my expanded explanation. Thanks much.

FWIW, I’m fairly sure I posted on this topic over the last few months re testing. My position re the need for massive testing has been firm from the beginning of this mess. And how you can at all imply that I, or anyone here, would think it’s not important to test those who are ill is just...I don’t know what to say...quite insulting, for sure. 


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## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I did not mean to say testing creates cases. What I meant is exactly what you said. I guess I phrased it wrong.



Yes, thanks. Words are important. Choose carefully. As you can see (scroll up...) we need to be accurate here or else people jump all over. 


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## TravelTime (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yes, thanks. Words are important. Choose carefully. As you can see (scroll up...) we need to be accurate here or else people jump all over.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



Yes, I know people here are very particular about words. I am often scared to post because of this. However, I have gotten much better at phrasing things so I don't jumped on as much. In the beginning, almost everything I posted was challenged.


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## PigsDad (Jul 1, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Of course it doesn't.  More tests DETECT more cases.  Which is why "new cases" is a useless measure of the effect of Covid-19.  *The end result, deaths, is a "truer" measure of the effect of Covid-19.*


Personally, I think Covid-19 primary hospitalizations is a better indicator for the severity of the pandemic.  It is a leading indicator compared to deaths, it lets us know where we are with regard to overwhelming medical facilities (remember -- that was the main reason for the lockdowns in the first place), and to put it frankly, lessor cases that don't require hospitalizations aren't really that important in the grand scheme of things.  Not to sound cold or uncaring, but those lesser cases mostly just inconvenience lives for a bit, and don't tax our medical facilities near as much.

With that said, total number of detected cases is an important indicator on the replication rate, but we have to take other factors other that just total new cases into account when determining severity and what should be done.  For example, if there are 100K new cases, but they are all in the 20-30 age range, there may be no need for concern, whereas if those same 100K new cases are in the 70+ range, there would be major concern, simply because the data to date has shown this disease affects the elderly much more severely vs. the young by many orders of magnitude.

Kurt


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## geist1223 (Jul 1, 2020)

I know this issue has been beaten to death. But my understanding is that you test to determine the spread of Covid19. The goal is a positive rate of 5% or less, which shows the spread is being controlled.


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## Cornell (Jul 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Personally, I think Covid-19 primary hospitalizations is a better indicator for the severity of the pandemic.  It is a leading indicator compared to deaths, it lets us know where we are with regard to overwhelming medical facilities (remember -- that was the main reason for the lockdowns in the first place), and to put it frankly, lessor cases that don't require hospitalizations aren't really that important in the grand scheme of things.  Not to sound cold or uncaring, but those lesser cases mostly just inconvenience lives for a bit, and don't tax our medical facilities near as much.
> 
> With that said, total number of detected cases is an important indicator on the replication rate, but we have to take other factors other that just total new cases into account when determining severity and what should be done.  For example, if there are 100K new cases, but they are all in the 20-30 age range, there may be no need for concern, whereas if those same 100K new cases are in the 70+ range, there would be major concern, simply because the data to date has shown this disease affects the elderly much more severely vs. the young by many orders of magnitude.
> 
> Kurt


I see news sounding the alarm about hospitals in the sunbelt.  I'm extremely skeptical now of the headlines / "hooks" I read these days...Call me when any hospital or hospital system in CA, AZ, FL, etc. unilaterally decides to cancel elective procedures because of over crowding.


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## amycurl (Jul 1, 2020)

Tracking cases by county level:








						Green, Yellow, Orange Or Red? This New Tool Shows COVID-19 Risk In Your County
					

A new color-coded map, backed by a coalition of top scientists, provides a way of comparing outbreak severity across communities, down to the county level.




					www.npr.org
				



(Data compiled by Harvard Global Health scientists)

This is a way to track community spread, and to compare one community to another, esp. if you are planning on traveling, and want to assess the risk in the other community.

Note: Hawaii is the *only* state that is green in the country.

Also from Harvard, is a way to looking at how much testing is still needed state-by-state to successful mitigate, and then suppress the virus. It looks like about the half the states are no where near the level they need to be. It seems like much of the country wasted March and April SAH orders to ramp up the needed testing and contract tracing capabilities to where it really needed to be to successfully re-open, without risking having to shut down again.





						July 6, 2020 | State Testing Targets – Pandemics Explained
					






					globalepidemics.org
				




I also really like this site, which is linked to in the first NPR article. It's a way of compiling the best research available, and providing POLICY MAKERS across the country with specific metrics and goals for those metrics to inform decision-making. Data-driven decision-making is my favorite.  https://www.covidlocal.org/metrics/


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## Conan (Jul 1, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I see news sounding the alarm about hospitals in the sunbelt.  I'm extremely skeptical now of the headlines / "hooks" I read these days...Call me when any hospital or hospital system in CA, AZ, FL, etc. unilaterally decides to cancel elective procedures because of over crowding.












						Gov. Greg Abbott orders hospitals to stop elective surgeries, but local authorities want more
					

The governor's order stops procedures in Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis counties. Here's what it means.




					abc13.com


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## Cornell (Jul 1, 2020)

@Conan Thank you for sharing this.  During the height of all this (March, April), I used to listen to a weekly "community update" that an administrator from our local hospital system would provide regarding hospital rates, vent usage, etc.  It was very informative as I know zero about hospital administration.  It was such a different tone from what I was hearing in our local media.  I recognize all parties have competing agendas when communicating so it makes my brain go crazy knowing what to believe sometimes.  Nonetheless, I feel really awful for people who are gearing up for elective procedures just to get put on hold.


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## DannyTS (Jul 1, 2020)

More testing is just another unrealistic goal the media is setting. In many places, they cannot test more than the people who show up for testing, it is that simple. When so many tests are already negative, testing a bit more does not do any good from a statistical POV if it is not done randomly. We have a poll for every silly political question but we do not have a national random test every week for Covid. Somebody there does not want us to know if we are actually doing better.


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## "Roger" (Jul 1, 2020)

Here are some quotes from a _Miami Herald_ article (behind a fire wall) about hospitalizations in Miami Dade county. While info for all of Florida would me more interesting, Florida only reports hospitalizations without any specific info about how many of those hospitalizations are coVid-19 cases. I believe that Florida might be the only state to have resisted providing more specific information. They are under pressure to change that policy.

_Miami-Dade is the state's hardest hit county with more the 36,000 cases and nearly 1,000 deaths to date. On Tuesday, more that 1,200 patients with COVID-19 filled local hospital beds -- more than at any point during the pandemic. About 245 patients with the disease were in an intensive care unit and 103 needed a ventilator._​​_AHCA, which regulates hospitals, maintains a dashboard that showed less than 20% of adult ICU beds and about 22% of acute care hospital beds statewide were available on Tuesday. But the dashboard does not reflect additional ICU and patient capacity that hospitals can create by converting beds and making other changes._​​_Jackson Health System, the county's public hospital network, reported 265 total patients in the hospital with the disease on Tuesday. About 40 percent of those patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, after they had been to the hospital for another reason...Migoya [a spokesperson for the hospital] noted that every patient who tests positive must be isolated, and that hospital staff who care for them must use more costly protective gear, such as N-95 respirator masks, face shields, gowns and gloves._​
I have presented this with the belief that more info is better than less info. Rather than jumping in and saying that this phrase supports me, no, that sentence supports my point of view, can we just let everyone read what is above and make their own decisions?


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## klpca (Jul 1, 2020)

amycurl said:


> Tracking cases by county level:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks for posting this. I agree with your statement that I bolded, *Data-driven decision-making is my favorite*. . Making decisions based upon guesses, even educated guesses, can run counter to what the data will clearly show. I see this every week in my line of work (finance). You have to run the numbers because numbers don't lie. 

I'm so frustrated that everything that we did in the spring was essentially wasted effort. I think that putting the genie back in the bottle won't happen but if everyone would do the cheap and easy thing (wearing a mask) we could get this back under some sort of control much sooner. 








						Can face masks protect against COVID-19?
					

Face masks can help slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Learn about mask types, which masks to use and how to use them.




					www.mayoclinic.org
				











						Still Confused About Masks? Here’s the Science Behind How Face Masks Prevent Coronavirus
					

We talked to UCSF epidemiologist George Rutherford, MD, and infectious disease specialist Peter Chin-Hong, MD, about the CDC’s reversal on mask-wearing, the current science on how masks work, and what to consider when choosing a mask.




					www.ucsf.edu
				











						COVID-19 ARCHIVED WEBPAGE
					

This historical page is not up to date. Find the latest on COVID-19.




					www.cdc.gov


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## PigsDad (Jul 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> More testing is just another unrealistic goal the media is setting. In many places, they cannot test more than the people who show up for testing, it is that simple.


I just read that a major testing site in Denver is reducing hours due to not being able to obtain enough test kits.  It stated that with the new outbreaks in AZ, TX, CA and FL, test kits were being prioritized in those areas and we couldn't get as many here in CO.

Kurt


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## bluehende (Jul 1, 2020)

\


PigsDad said:


> I just read that a major testing site in Denver is reducing hours due to not being able to obtain enough test kits.  It stated that with the new outbreaks in AZ, TX, CA and FL, test kits were being prioritized in those areas and we couldn't get as many here in CO.
> 
> Kurt


DE is a microcosm of this.  About 3 weeks ago we went to tests for all with no order and free.  Worked well until our southern county which is a tourist beach area had a surge.  Now the northern part of the state has limited tests with very little availability for appointments now.  The tests were diverted to the beach area specifically for restaurant and bar workers.


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## DannyTS (Jul 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> I just read that a major testing site in Denver is reducing hours due to not being able to obtain enough test kits.  It stated that with the new outbreaks in AZ, TX, CA and FL, test kits were being prioritized in those areas and we couldn't get as many here in CO.
> 
> Kurt


with 19 out of 20 tests being negative, there is enough testing capacity. I think some also fake the symptoms just to get a test done, out of curiosity. Many people admitted doing that on social media but of course there is no way of knowing how many


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## jme (Jul 1, 2020)

New article today in WSJ regarding "recovered" patients still suffering:
(most of these we never hear about)









						Three Months In, These Patients Are Still Ravaged by Covid’s Fallout
					

Doctors are studying coronavirus patients who are still experiencing symptoms or aftereffects of the disease, months after infection.




					www.wsj.com


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## cman (Jul 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> with 19 out of 20 tests being negative, there is enough testing capacity.


The large labs are saying the opposite.








						A Dire Warning From COVID-19 Test Providers
					

U.S. coronavirus testing could fail again, as surging demand creates new backlogs and delays.




					www.theatlantic.com


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## davidvel (Jul 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> More testing is just another unrealistic goal the media is setting. In many places, they cannot test more than the people who show up for testing, it is that simple. When so many tests are already negative, testing a bit more does not do any good from a statistical POV if it is not done randomly. We have a poll for every silly political question but we do not have a national random test every week for Covid. Somebody there does not want us to know if we are actually doing better.


Correct. (So far) big brother has not forced random people to be tested, and testing only those who volunteer, usually with symptoms, has next to zero statistical value as to overall prevalence in the population.  Also so many positive people show little to no symptoms, with no ill effects.

Simply bean counting positive tests under the current system, then running chicken little because raw positive numbers are increasing is foolish.

Experts have said from the beginning that we can't stop the spread of this virus, only slow it down. So most if not all will get it. Now many of these experts are saying it's likely too late to even control it with any measures, as it has made it to too many people. 

At this point it would seem better off if those who have a next to 0 chance of any serious illness (those under 25), all get the illness and recover, creating a natural  buffer for those more at risk. Those at risk should stay quarantined.


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## Brett (Jul 1, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Correct. (So far) big brother has not forced random people to be tested, and testing only those who volunteer, usually with symptoms, has next to zero statistical value as to overall prevalence in the population.  Also so many positive people show little to no symptoms, with no ill effects.
> 
> Simply bean counting positive tests under the current system, then running chicken little because raw positive numbers are increasing is foolish.
> 
> ...




you say most people will eventually get the coronavirus ?

I hope I don't get it !





https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/


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## DannyTS (Jul 1, 2020)

davidvel said:


> At this point it would seem better off if those who have a next to 0 chance of any serious illness (those under 25), all get the illness and recover, creating a natural  buffer for those more at risk. Those at risk should stay quarantined.


But that would make too much sense! I would say even under 35.


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## Brett (Jul 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> But that would make too much sense! I would say even under 35.




I get it, let the young people enjoy the coronavirus high life in bars and nightclubs and quarantine the "old people" over 35 for several years

yeah, that will work


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## pedro47 (Jul 1, 2020)

The more I read about Covid-19. I feel everyone needs to be tested and this should be mandated by our federal government. 
We need to stop coronavirus now. Not tomorrow; Now... IMHO.


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## bluehende (Jul 1, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Correct. (So far) big brother has not forced random people to be tested, and testing only those who volunteer, usually with symptoms, has next to zero statistical value as to overall prevalence in the population.  Also so many positive people show little to no symptoms, with no ill effects.
> 
> Simply bean counting positive tests under the current system, then running chicken little because raw positive numbers are increasing is foolish.
> 
> ...




Let's look at that at risk population


52 million people over 65  from census estimate 2018
100 million people with high blood pressure    from heart.org
42.4 percent of americans are obese.....from cdc 2018
30 million americans have diabetes.     from the cdc
10 million americans are immunocompromised not including pregnant women    from cdc

Obesity and diabetes are high risk and just those 2 are about half the population even excluding the obvious intersection of the two.  Even trying to isolate those over 65 would be impossible without a huge new infrastructure to feed, clothe, shelter and give medical attention to those in isolation.


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## Cornell (Jul 1, 2020)

Only 3.6 percent of *Japanese* have a body mass index (BMI) over 30, which is the international standard for *obesity*, whereas 32.0 percent of Americans do. -- another reason why Japan has been more successful with C19 than the US.


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## cman (Jul 1, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Correct. (So far) big brother has not forced random people to be tested, and testing only those who volunteer, usually with symptoms, *has next to zero statistical value as to overall prevalence in the population*.  Also so many positive people show little to no symptoms, with no ill effects.
> 
> *Simply bean counting positive tests under the current system, then running chicken little because raw positive numbers are increasing is foolish.*



The purpose of the testing is to determine the positivity rate, or the percentage of those testing positive. That determines the rate of spread within the community. What's alarming is in states such as FL, TX and AZ, have increased their testing since April. When you test more people, you would expect the percentage that test positive to go down. Unfortunately, these states are seeing a huge increase in the percentage of those testing positive, indicating a rapid spread within the community. If you don't test, you don't know where you are and a driving blind. 



davidvel said:


> Experts have said from the beginning that we can't stop the spread of this virus, only slow it down. So most if not all will get it. Now many of these experts are saying it's likely too late to even control it with any measures, as it has made it to too many people.


Other countries have either stopped it or slowed the spread significantly. We botched our response right out of the starting blocks when the CDC sent those contaminated test kits to the state labs. There will be another pandemic down the road and hopefully we'll be prepared next time. Our response to this thing was pathetic. We must do better.


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## DannyTS (Jul 1, 2020)

cman said:


> The large labs are saying the opposite.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Do I have to mention these are self serving statements? 
In any case, if they test more now than before it proves previous comments that the current increase in the number of cases is most likely because they just test more and not necessarily because there are more sick people.


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## amycurl (Jul 1, 2020)

It would appear, from the raising numbers of COVID cases on vents in ICUs, that the rising community spread in many communities is correlated to "more sick people."

I understand that some people will not be swayed by data. What really saddens me are when those people are in policy-making positions. That's one of the reasons why we have a much higher death toll per 100,000 of population than many other countries.


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## klpca (Jul 1, 2020)

Let's do something meaningful and instead of arguing the fine points (over and over and over again) perhaps we can all commit to wearing a mask and helping our local area get through this trying time. Everyone will be happier once we are on the other side.


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## Cornell (Jul 1, 2020)

klpca said:


> Let's do something meaningful and instead of arguing the fine points (over and over and over again) perhaps we can all commit to wearing a mask and helping our local area get through this trying time. Everyone will be happier once we are on the other side.


Now this is a post I can really get behind.  Thank you @klpca.


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## DannyTS (Jul 1, 2020)

amycurl said:


> That's one of the reasons why we have a much higher death toll per 100,000 of population than many other countries.


Or because US has a much more diverse population in terms of income, education, color, *customs*, very dense in many areas and strongly interconnected with other countries for business and leisure.


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## geist1223 (Jul 1, 2020)

Yes when you test more you will get more positive results.  The way to look at it is % + in the test group. If you are being successful in control this % should be 5% or less +.


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## Luanne (Jul 1, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Yes when you test more you will get more positive results.  The way to look at it is % + in the test group. If you are being successful in control this % should be 5% or less +.


When you test more you get more results, both positive and negative.  The testing isn't causing COVID 19, it's only identifying those who have it.


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## TravelTime (Jul 1, 2020)

klpca said:


> Let's do something meaningful and instead of arguing the fine points (over and over and over again) perhaps we can all commit to wearing a mask and helping our local area get through this trying time. Everyone will be happier once we are on the other side.



Totally agree. In the first couple of months, it was interesting to debate the numbers and predict where this was going, compare countries, etc. Now it is getting old because things are not predictable at all. This is a new normal that not of us could have imagined. I am past debating whether it makes sense to wear a mask, does it work or not, or yell at people who don't wear a mask. I just accept we need to wear a mask for now and move on.


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## Cornell (Jul 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Totally agree. In the first couple of months, it was interesting to debate the numbers and predict where this was going, compare countries, etc. Now it is getting old because things are not predictable at all. This is a new normal that not of us could have imagined. I am past debating whether it makes sense to wear a mask, does it work or not, or yell at people who don't wear a mask. I just accept we need to wear a mask for now and move on.


Remember the good 'ol days when we discussed the OJ trial all day ?  *** sigh ***


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## Brett (Jul 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> When you test more you get more results, both positive and negative.  The testing isn't causing COVID 19, it's only identifying those who have it.



sounds reasonable


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

*Researchers and Public Health Experts unite to bring clarity to key metrics guiding coronavirus response

Harvard Global Health Institute, Harvard's Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, Rockefeller Foundation, CovidActNow, Covid-Local, CIDRAP and many others join forces, launch new COVID Risk Level map and COVID suppression guidance for policy makers and the public*









						Risk Levels - Global Epidemics
					

RISK LEVELS First published in July 2020, our Covid-19 risk levels dashboard tracks the pandemic in real time and has provided consistent information about risk levels based on daily case counts.   DASHBOARD How severe is the pandemic where you live? For questions about the dashboard, please...




					globalepidemics.org


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

The number of daily new cases of COVID-19 in Texas is now larger than it was in Italy at the worst point of the crisis. Texas has less than half the population of Italy. Death rates in Texas also increased dramatically on June 30th.









https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


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## bbodb1 (Jul 1, 2020)

klpca said:


> Let's do something meaningful and instead of arguing the fine points (over and over and over again) perhaps we can all commit to wearing a mask and helping our local area get through this trying time. Everyone will be happier once we are on the other side.


Or even better - stay home!


----------



## klpca (Jul 1, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Or even better - stay home!


We are re-quarantining. At this point it just doesn't feel safe to be out and about at all. And guess who ordered TP from Costco last night?  We are ready.


----------



## Luanne (Jul 1, 2020)

Our governor just announced a mandatory 14 day quarantine for ALL out of state visitors.

Masks are required for patrons of ALL businesses.

Phase Two openings are on hold.


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## bbodb1 (Jul 1, 2020)

On hold is the current status in Arkansas as well.  While things here were not as bad as they were portrayed by some national media outlets,  we were definitely trending in the wrong direction and needed to pause and hopefully reverse course.


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## klpca (Jul 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Our governor just announced a mandatory 14 day quarantine for ALL out of state visitors.
> 
> Masks are required for patrons of ALL businesses.
> 
> Phase Two openings are on hold.


Obscure bunco reference here. I have played in a group where one of the rules is that when you roll three ones (aces) you and your partner immediately lose ALL of your points. It is terrible - as far as bunco goes . 

I feel like we just rolled aces in the covid bunco game and I for one, am not happy about it. But here we are. 

Wear a mask.


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## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

Alabama students throwing 'COVID parties' to see who gets infected: Officials
Rising infections prompt Gov. Kay Ivy to extend 'Safer at Home' orders.









						Alabama students throwing 'COVID parties' to see who gets infected: Officials
					

Rising infections prompt Gov. Kay Ivy to extend 'Safer at Home' orders.




					abcnews.go.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Luanne (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Alabama students throwing 'COVID parties' to see who gets infected: Officials
> Rising infections prompt Gov. Kay Ivy to extend 'Safer at Home' orders.
> 
> 
> ...


I'm speechless.  Actually there are so many things I could say, but won't.


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## geekette (Jul 1, 2020)

COVID parties?  Great.  Do they play a few rounds of Russian Roulette, too?


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 1, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Remember the good 'ol days when we discussed the OJ trial all day ?  *** sigh ***



I enjoy hearing different points of view. It has been a big surprise to me how differently people think. It is good to hear a different viewpoint.

BTW, I heard from CASA today and I will be participating in the August training. Hopefully, this will be a meaningful experience and something I will enjoy in my old age. LOL


----------



## Passepartout (Jul 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I enjoy hearing different points of view. It has been a big surprise to me how differently people think. It is good to hear a different viewpoint.
> 
> BTW, I heard from CASA today and I will be participating in the August training. Hopefully, this will be a meaningful experience and something I will enjoy in my old age. LOL


My wish for you: an old age. At this stage of Covid-19, I'm thinking that the odds of much more 'old age' is at best, a crapshoot. It might happen, but already aged, and with higher risk factors, I'm not real optimistic. If this isolation continues for, say, another year, our physical and mental health as well as the economy in general is iffy.

Jim


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 1, 2020)

Congrats on CASA. As someone suggested, this should become a separate thread.

At times it has been painful, but it has been good for me to see how some people think.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I'm speechless. Actually there are so many things I could say, but won't.



I’m not surprised. Unlike the false story about Washington earlier this year, this one in Alabama appears real. Sadly, it’s not likely to be the last. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## TravelTime (Jul 1, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> My wish for you: an old age. At this stage of Covid-19, I'm thinking that the odds of much more 'old age' is at best, a crapshoot. It might happen, but already aged, and with higher risk factors, I'm not real optimistic. If this isolation continues for, say, another year, our physical and mental health as well as the economy in general is iffy.
> 
> Jim



It is depressing to think we might not have an old age. I am still optimistic that we will get through Covid and it will not kill most people. However, I am more worried about continued isolation and what it will do to mental health, relationships, jobs, the economy, and all the other non-health factors. If this goes on and on, we will all need to adjust to a new reality. I hope it goes will for everyone, I really do.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 1, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> Congrats on CASA. As someone suggested, this should become a separate thread.
> 
> At times it has been painful, but it has been good for me to see how some people think.



Yes I will start a CASA thread. I will share my experience and how others can relate. There are a lot of Tuggers who do good volunteer work and help their families and communities. It would nice to talk about how we are making the world a better place. We get too caught up in this Covid stuff when there are still ways we can make life meaningful.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 1, 2020)

geekette said:


> COVID parties?  Great.  Do they play a few rounds of Russian Roulette, too?


.that is likely referred to as the lightning round...


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Yes I will start a CASA thread.


Excellent!


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## DannyTS (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> The number of daily new cases of COVID-19 in Texas is now larger than it was in Italy at the worst point of the crisis. Texas has less than half the population of Italy. Death rates in Texas also increased dramatically on June 30th.
> 
> View attachment 22790
> 
> ...


Is there any point in comparing? The fatality rate in Italy was 8% at that time so clearly they were not testing much.


----------



## cman (Jul 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Is there any point in comparing? The fatality rate in Italy was 8% at that time so clearly they were not testing much.


Your correlation of fatality rate and testing literally makes no sense. We botched the testing, at the time of their peak their testing capability was well ahead of ours. Looking for logic in your statement, just not finding it.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I enjoy hearing different points of view. It has been a big surprise to me how differently people think. It is good to hear a different viewpoint.
> 
> BTW, I heard from CASA today and I will be participating in the August training. Hopefully, this will be a meaningful experience and something I will enjoy in my old age. LOL


YAAAAAAY.  I'm very happy about this CASA development.  They are lucky to have you. And as others have said, please keep us informed.  

I , too, like to hear differing points of view.  And to express mine - hahahahahaha - much to the dismay of others on TUG.  In all seriousness, I have come to realize that we are all approaching this with different states of mind.  

BTW, I had dinner tonight w/a friend of mine who I haven't talked with much in 6 months. I was surprised to learn during our conversation that her husband got sick with C19 back in late March.  She , nor their 3 kids, got sick.  All sharing the same house and they weren't doing anything "Chris Cuomo" style like having dad shoved in the basement.  They continued living together per usual other than washing hands more often and being a bit more mindful of cleaning.


----------



## am1 (Jul 1, 2020)

Cornell said:


> YAAAAAAY.  I'm very happy about this CASA development.  They are lucky to have you. And as others have said, please keep us informed.
> 
> I , too, like to hear differing points of view.  And to express mine - hahahahahaha - much to the dismay of others on TUG.  In all seriousness, I have come to realize that we are all approaching this with different states of mind.
> 
> BTW, I had dinner tonight w/a friend of mine who I haven't talked with much in 6 months. I was surprised to learn during our conversation that her husband got sick with C19 back in late March.  She , nor their 3 kids, got sick.  All sharing the same house and they weren't doing anything "Chris Cuomo" style like having dad shoved in the basement.  They continued living together per usual other than washing hands more often and being a bit more mindful of cleaning.



Did not get sick or did not test positive. Very different with the first one par for the course for a lot/ almost most people.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 1, 2020)

Cornell said:


> YAAAAAAY.  I'm very happy about this CASA development.  They are lucky to have you. And as others have said, please keep us informed.
> 
> I , too, like to hear differing points of view.  And to express mine - hahahahahaha - much to the dismay of others on TUG.  In all seriousness, I have come to realize that we are all approaching this with different states of mind.
> 
> BTW, I had dinner tonight w/a friend of mine who I haven't talked with much in 6 months. I was surprised to learn during our conversation that her husband got sick with C19 back in late March.  She , nor their 3 kids, got sick.  All sharing the same house and they weren't doing anything "Chris Cuomo" style like having dad shoved in the basement.  They continued living together per usual other than washing hands more often and being a bit more mindful of cleaning.



Yes, not everyone gets the virus in the same household. In our community, the first person to get covid recovered and her husband never got it. This is the same with all viruses. When I was a kid, my brother got chickpox and I did not. In February, my husband had a virus and I did not get it. This virus can be selective.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Yes, not everyone gets the virus in the same household. In our community, the first person to get covid recovered and her husband never got it. This is the same with all viruses. When I was a kid, my brother got chickpox and I did not. In February, my husband had a virus and I did not get it. This virus can be selective.



Or... they are asymptomatic.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Jul 1, 2020)

cman said:


> Your correlation of fatality rate and testing literally makes no sense. We botched the testing, at the time of their peak their testing capability was well ahead of ours. Looking for logic in your statement, just not finding it.


He was comparing new cases in Italy in March with new cases in Texas in late June (!). Do you think the Italians were testing at that time as much as they are testing in the US right now? No they weren't and that is why the new cases were not that many but they had a lot of people who died. In need for a brighter light?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 1, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Or... they are asymptomatic.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I know a doctor from NYC, she was positive, living with her husband and the two kids in a tiny apartment. She was sick, the husband and the kids never got it and they were tested several times. Given the circumstances they thought the whole family should have been sick.


----------



## klpca (Jul 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I know a doctor from NYC, she was positive, living with her husband and the two kids in a tiny apartment. She was sick, the husband and the kids never got it and they were tested several times. Given the circumstances they thought the whole family should have been sick.


And our commercial property manager's family all got it - kids through seniors. A 56 year old family member died.


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## DannyTS (Jul 1, 2020)

klpca said:


> And our commercial property manager's family all got it - kids through seniors. A 56 year old family member died.


*Are we underestimating how many people are resistant to Covid-19?*








						Are we underestimating how many people are resistant to Covid-19?
					

Scientists are racing to work out why some populations are more protected against Covid-19 than others




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Cornell (Jul 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> *Are we underestimating how many people are resistant to Covid-19?*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is really interesting. Thanks for sharing


----------



## cman (Jul 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> He was comparing new cases in Italy in March with new cases in Texas in late June (!). Do you think the Italians were testing at that time as much as they are testing in the US right now? No they weren't and that is why the new cases were not that many but they had a lot of people who died. In need for a brighter light?


I still don't get your correlation between fatality rate and testing. Are you saying that more testing decreases the fatality rate or what? How are you correlating the two?


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## Ken555 (Jul 2, 2020)

Internal Messages Reveal Crisis at Houston Hospitals as Coronavirus Cases Surge

Texas was one of the first states in the nation to ease social distancing mandates. In Houston, the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 has quadrupled since Memorial Day. “It’s time to be alarmed,” one expert said.









						Internal messages reveal crisis at Houston hospitals as cases surge — ProPublica
					

Texas was one of the first states in the nation to ease social distancing mandates. In Houston, the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 has quadrupled since Memorial Day. “It’s time to be alarmed,” one expert said.




					apple.news
				





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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

But how come that in Europe and in Canada where the measures were relaxed the number of new cases has continued to go down? Maybe the protests have played a much bigger role than thought.


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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

*Most People With Coronavirus Won’t Spread It. Why Do a Few Infect Many?









						Most People With Coronavirus Won’t Spread It. Why Do a Few Infect Many?
					

Growing evidence shows most infected people aren’t spreading the virus. But whether you become a superspreader probably depends more on circumstance than biology.




					www.nytimes.com
				



*


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## amycurl (Jul 2, 2020)

Yes, but the issue is that there is no way to determine who is a superspreader and who is not. And you can't self-determine that either. And when even otherwise-healthy, young people end up hospitalized or dead, saying "if you're at risk, take extra precautions" is not enough, either....because it's not *just* those at higher-risk that are dying.

Right now, I am taking my break between my end-of-the-week emergency management calls. In our county, the vast majority of those infected and hospitalized are now under 45. This is the time of the week that I am at my most pessimistic, because it is when I hear the hard data from the infectious disease managers and emergency managers that are providing the guidance for everyone else in the community.


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## klpca (Jul 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> *Most People With Coronavirus Won’t Spread It. Why Do a Few Infect Many?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I found this part interesting: "_Since most transmission happens only in a small number of similar situations, it may be possible to come up with smart strategies to stop them from happening. It may be possible to avoid crippling, across-the-board lockdowns by targeting the superspreading events."_
It would be nice if we could stop the spread of the virus without stopping our entire economy. We are going backwards right now.


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## SmithOp (Jul 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> But how come that in Europe and in Canada where the measures were relaxed the number of new cases has continued to go down? Maybe the protests have played a much bigger role than thought.



I doubt you can pin it on a single factor like protests. Here in southern CA fingers are pointing at folks on the beach and in bars, people exploded out of their homes recently when the restrictions were lifted, many without masks.

I monitor a few local FB chat pages and young people seem to think this whole pandemic is a conspiracy, and masks are for old folks. The demographics here on TUG are the opposite, more in my age group that are proceeding with caution and more likely to follow rules and social norms. Its an interesting dichotomy to observe.

I went to the beach last weekend, it was packed, all the parking lots full, large gatherings of people with no masks anywhere. We ended up just sitting in our car in the parking lot, had a little picnic and enjoyed the sun and cool sea breeze.

I don’t know how they socialize in EU or Canada but maybe more people are following suggestions for social distance, masks, and cleaning.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## amycurl (Jul 2, 2020)

The "superspreader" events I've seen mentioned in the literature are:
--Inside choir practice
--Weddings and funerals, where people hug and are close to each other
--Parties, esp inside, with as few as 12 or 15 people
--Bars and restaurants
--Close working conditions (meatpacking plants, open offices crammed with cubicles, etc.

Of course, those insitutions that are likely to "host" superspreader events are those that have been some of the most vocal about re-opening: churches, event halls, bars and restaurants.

The problem, as with almost everything related to this pandemic, is even when we, collectively as a US society, "know better," we are pretty terrible about "doing better," at least in the short term. This is why we're going backwards.


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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> I doubt you can pin it on a single factor like protests. Here in southern CA fingers are pointing at folks on the beach and in bars, people exploded out of their homes recently when the restrictions were lifted, many without masks.
> 
> I monitor a few local FB chat pages and young people seem to think this whole pandemic is a conspiracy, and masks are for old folks. The demographics here on TUG are the opposite, more in my age group that are proceeding with caution and more likely to follow rules and social norms. Its an interesting dichotomy to observe.
> 
> ...


I see that a lot of people in Canada are not very careful. I do not have direct knowledge about the beaches and the bars in Europe but I assume the human nature is the same everywhere, I do not think people are different in the US, Europe and Canada. This is a picture from England, it seems that it is much worse than the beaches in the US. Something else contributed to the spike in the US (besides more testing). I think the protests contributed directly and indirectly. Directly because a lot of them did not wear masks in crowded ares. Indirectly because the local officials and the media promoted them and virtually ignored the risk of infection.This made those who were suspicious that Covid had been manipulated for group or political reasons to be even more suspicious and lower the guard. How many people thought: how come I cannot go to work or church at the same time when the protests are praised by the media? A judge in NY sided with the churches vs the state exactly for this reason.














						Major incident declared after thousands flock to UK beaches in sweltering heat
					

Officials in southern England have declared a "major incident" after thousands of people flocked to local beaches.




					www.cnn.com


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## bluehende (Jul 2, 2020)

Allegheny Co. Health Officials: Spike In New Coronavirus Cases Linked To Bars, Not Protests
					

The Allegheny County Health Department says a spike in coronavirus cases in the Pittsburgh area has been linked to several bars, and not protests.




					pittsburgh.cbslocal.com


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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Allegheny Co. Health Officials: Spike In New Coronavirus Cases Linked To Bars, Not Protests
> 
> 
> The Allegheny County Health Department says a spike in coronavirus cases in the Pittsburgh area has been linked to several bars, and not protests.
> ...


In many cities  the contact tracers were NOT allowed to ask if people participated in protests. I also wonder how many who attended protests and infected would admit to that. There is no way of verifying and a lot of biases can play a role, including those of the contact tracers.


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## bluehende (Jul 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In many cities  the contact tracers were NOT allowed to ask if people participated in protests. I also wonder how many who attended protests and infected would admit to that. There is no way of verifying and a lot of biases can play a role, including those of the contact tracers.


Source for your conspiracy theory?  Since they did in fact ask.  I hardly think that if someone spends hours at a protest they would be shy in saying so.  Also please show a credible source that does link protests to infections.  As usual I supply a credible  (county department of health) and you talk straight conjecture with  no evidence.


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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Source for your conspiracy theory?  Since they did in fact ask.  I hardly think that if someone spends hours at a protest they would be shy in saying so.  Also please show a credible source that does link protests to infections.  As usual I supply a credible  (county department of health) and you talk straight conjecture with  no evidence.





These are some links:
*De Blasio Tells Covid Contract Tracers Not to Ask Positive Cases If They’ve Attended BLM Protests*









						De Blasio Tells Covid Contract Tracers Not to Ask Positive Cases If They’ve Attended BLM Protests | National Review
					

“No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest,” Avery Cohen, a spokesperson for de Blasio, said.




					www.nationalreview.com
				












						COVID-19 patients aren’t asked whether they participated in protests, doctor says
					

As protesters filled the streets in downtown Orlando in early June -- most wearing masks, some not -- questions began to circulate about whether the mass demonstrations would lead to an increase in COVID-19 cases.




					www.clickorlando.com
				




You posted a study from a small city with limited protests especially compared to those in LA, Seattle etc. As a scientist you realize that it is not representative for  the US, and it does not add credibility to your position. So you think that those that were at the riots  have any reason to volunteer that they were in those crowds? It does not make sense to me.
You like the word "conspiracy" a bit too much, I hope you do not use it for all topics, including when it comes to turkey and banana bread recipes.

I also have to point out that the average age of the protesters is low, they are very likely to have mild or no symptoms and not be tested. But of course it did not mean they could not give it to others at home, work etc and contribute that way to spreading the virus.

By the way, if the protests did not contribute to spreading the virus I am very happy. One less thing to be worried about. If that is the case, I also do not ever want to hear about terraces, pools or beaches being closed to prevent Covid.


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## bluehende (Jul 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> These are some links:
> *De Blasio Tells Covid Contract Tracers Not to Ask Positive Cases If They’ve Attended BLM Protests*
> 
> 
> ...


From Orlando article

patients are asked about their recent activity
and
don’t *specifically* ask about a patient’s participation in protests or other political activity.

Would that not mean protests   

The national review article says the same.

Just because they do not grill them on their protest activity does not mean that info is not there.

And as I have said many times.  There is no doubt that the protests increase cases.  With them being outside and  high mask usage I think this increase is minor compared to other factors.  If there is data to the contrary let me know.  The data I presented along with the fact that NY,MN, and DC all had declining cases through the time that these cases would show up is not definitive but certainly suggestive.


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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

of course you do not mention:
When asked Monday about any correlation between the racial justice rallies about two weeks ago and the recent record-high numbers, Pino (The director of the Florida Department of Health in Orange County Dr. Raul Pino) said, “I don’t think that’s a coincidence.”


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## "Roger" (Jul 2, 2020)

More than half the new cases come from four states. I never saw anything to suggest that most of the protests were in those four states.









						U.S. coronavirus cases rise by nearly 50,000 in biggest one-day spike of pandemic
					

The record follows a warning by the government's top infectious diseases expert that the number could soon double to 100,000 cases a day if Americans do not come together to take steps necessary to halt the virus' resurgent spread, such as wearing masks when unable to practice social distancing...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## bluehende (Jul 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> of course you do not mention:
> When asked Monday about any correlation between the racial justice rallies about two weeks ago and the recent record-high numbers, Pino (The director of the Florida Department of Health in Orange County Dr. Raul Pino) said, “I don’t think that’s a coincidence.”


Data please


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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Data please


I am going to simplify this. Based on everything you know, you do believe that large gatherings of people, many not wearing masks and not practicing social distancing, yelling for hours, going back to their families, friends  and their Walmart jobs  had no impact in spreading the virus.
Correct?

You also did not address my other point. By allowing and in many cases encouraging the riots  it really sent a very negative message to those that had diligently practiced social distancing, closed their businesses and churches and had made significant sacrifices for 8 weeks. What is your opinion about that? As someone said, you could go to jail for opening a store but not for looting one. Do you think that encouraged everyone to practice safety and social distancing?


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## Ken555 (Jul 2, 2020)

It seems there's a discussion (again) on the possible C19 spread due to the recent protests. I only see some of these posts but the intent is clear. 

When the protests first started I was very worried it would be the source of many superspreader events. In the last couple of weeks I no longer believe that happened. As has been already noted, the massive increase in infections appears almost everywhere in the USA, not just in those locations with protests. While there were >150 cities with protests, many were quite small.

Also, there's this:

*Black Lives Matter protests may have slowed overall spread of coronavirus in Denver and other cities, new study finds*
 
While the protests brought thousands of people together, they likely caused many more to stay home, a research team including a University of Colorado Denver professor concluded



> “We think that what’s going on is it’s the people who are not going to protest are staying away,” said Andrew Friedson, the CU-Denver professor who is one of the paper’s co-authors. “The overall effect for the entire city is more social distancing because people are avoiding the protests.”












						Black Lives Matter protests may have slowed overall spread of coronavirus in Denver and other cities, new study finds
					

As protests against racism and police violence swept across the country, drawing massive crowds into the streets amid a pandemic, public health officials worried about what the overall impact would be. Would these protests — which many health leaders said they support — also turn out to be virus...




					coloradosun.com
				




The study is linked in the article.

And this:

*Experts see little evidence that protests spread the coronavirus in U.S.    *



> If the protests had driven an explosion in cases, experts say, the jumps would have started to become apparent within two weeks — and perhaps as early as five days. But that didn’t happen in many cities with the largest protests, including New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Washington, D.C.
> 
> In what’s considered the first systematic look at the question, a team of economists determined that only one of 13 cities involved in the earliest wave of protests after Memorial Day had an increase that would fit the pattern.











						Experts see little evidence that protests spread the coronavirus in U.S.
					

Health experts say there is little evidence that the protests sparked by George Floyd’s death caused a significant increase in U.S. coronavirus infections.




					www.latimes.com
				




This article links the same study, as well.


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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

This study has a big problem. It stopped collecting data on June 20th (exactly *before* the spike) which means it missed the increase in the last couple of weeks. It cannot claim that the protests/riots have not contributed to the increase in new cases in the last 2 weeks because it simply did not look after June 20. Also the data that comes from CDC is always few days delayed so the one collected through* June 20th* refer in fact to people who got infected and tested days before. Additionally, as pointed out before, protesters are in general younger adults and less prone to severe symptoms. If they got infected, most likely they transmitted it to other people without even being tested themselves so their role in spreading the virus is only being seen now. 

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

"3.1 Our data on protests are collected from *May 25, 2020*, the day George Floyd was killed, through *June 20, 2020* from 315 U.S. cities with municipal populations estimated at 100,000 or more in 2019 (U.S. Census Bureau 2019).  "....
"Our social distancing analysis period spans the 30 days from *May 15, 2020* through *June 13, 2020* "...
"Finally, we measure county-level COVID-19 *cumulative case growth using data* from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), made public by the Kaiser Family Foundation.5 For our COVID-19 case analysis period, *May 15, 2020 through June 20, 2020* "


----------



## Brett (Jul 2, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> It seems there's a discussion (again) on the possible C19 spread due to the recent protests. I only see some of these posts but the intent is clear.
> 
> When the protests first started I was very worried it would be the source of many superspreader events. In the last couple of weeks I no longer believe that happened. As has been already noted, the massive increase in infections appears almost everywhere in the USA, not just in those locations with protests. While there were >150 cities with protests, many were quite small.
> 
> ...




yes

"There is little evidence that the protests that erupted after George Floyd’s death caused a significant increase in U.S. coronavirus infections, according to public health experts.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...f050e4-bbad-11ea-97c1-6cf116ffe26c_story.html


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## geekette (Jul 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Source for your conspiracy theory?  Since they did in fact ask.  I hardly think that if someone spends hours at a protest they would be shy in saying so.  Also please show a credible source that does link protests to infections.  As usual I supply a credible  (county department of health) and you talk straight conjecture with  no evidence.


You missed the call out on assuming that contact tracers have some bias for or against protests and would therefore change how they do that job based on that bias.  Straight up conjecture.   This is not the same as being instructed to ask, or not ask, about a certain thing. People working for a living generally do as boss says.


----------



## VacationForever (Jul 2, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Remember the good 'ol days when we discussed the OJ trial all day ?  *** sigh ***


I remember seeing OJ trial was on every TV screen at the boarding gate when I was flying into/out of US then.


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## Cornell (Jul 2, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I remember seeing OJ trial was on every TV screen at the boarding gate when I was flying into/out of US then.


I was obsessed with OJ .  I left for a guided 10-day whitewater rafting trip in BC about 2 weeks after the murders / arrest.  I was completely off the grid during this trip (remember , no cell phones, etc). As soon as our group arrived back in Vancouver, we all raced to the newspaper box to buy the paper to see what we had missed.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> You missed the call out on assuming that contact tracers have some bias for or against protests and would therefore change how they do that job based on that bias. Straight up conjecture. This is not the same as being instructed to ask, or not ask, about a certain thing. People working for a living generally do as boss says.



Wow, really? Actually, not sure why I’m surprised. If the facts don’t fit a particular theory...change the facts.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

According to the CDC, this is how the contact tracing interviews are conducted . Those interviewed are asked to tell who they have been in close contact with (less than 6 ft) for more than 15 minutes. Strangers at a protest do not qualify for this even if they French kissed you. 









						Health Departments
					

COVID-19 guidelines, tools, and resources for health departments.




					www.cdc.gov
				




*Contact Elicitation*
Identification of close contacts exposed to the virus is one of the important components of the case interview. After carefully determining the contact elicitation window, the interviewer will ask a series of questions to ensure all close contacts (within 6 feet and at least 15 minutes) are identified.


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## TravelTime (Jul 2, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I was obsessed with OJ .  I left for a guided 10-day whitewater rafting trip in BC about 2 weeks after the murders / arrest.  I was completely off the grid during this trip (remember , no cell phones, etc). As soon as our group arrived back in Vancouver, we all raced to the newspaper box to buy the paper to see what we had missed.



I still remember the day I heard about OJ killing his wife while I was getting ready to go out. It was right when it started. I thought "Gee, this will be big news." Sure enough, it was all over the media. I remember seeing the police chase of OJ. I remember the court case and following along with it. I remember when he got off as not guilty. This was really big news back in the day. It is such a shame that a hero like OJ became a monster. I stopped paying attention after he got off so I am not familiar with what happened in the appeals.

Right now, I am following Prince Harry and Meghan Markle. LOL I have always had a thing for the royal family. I was devastated when Princess Diana was killed by the media.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I still remember the day I heard about OJ killing his wife while I was getting ready to go out. It was right when it started. I thought "Gee, this will be big news." Sure enough, it was all over the media. I remember seeing the police chase of OJ. I remember the court case and following along with it. I remember when he got off as not guilty. This was really big news back in the day. It is such a shame that a hero like OJ became a monster. I stopped paying attention after he got off so I am not familiar with what happened in the appeals.
> 
> Right now, I am following Prince Harry and Meghan Markle. LOL I have always had a thing for the royal family. I was devastated when Princess Diana was killed by the media.


Laura - I think you and I could be good friends.  I, too, have a "thing" for the royal family - and I can't explain why.  It seems so shallow.  I remember exactly where I was when Princess Diana was killed as well.  

I can get you up to speed on OJ if you'd like.  Basically he's a pariah in the society / circle he wanted to be in -- and that's fine by me.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 2, 2020)

Just curious. Some of you have encouraged me to start a CASA (Court Appointed Special Advocate) thread. I am wondering what you would be interested in hearing about and whether I should start it now with an introduction of CASA? My training starts in August so I will have a lot more to say then. Next Tuesday, CASA is going to call me after they have found my old application to make sure everything is in there. I do need to get another background check, of course.


----------



## cman (Jul 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> According to the CDC, this is how the contact tracing interviews are conducted . Those interviewed are asked to tell who they have been in close contact with (less than 6 ft) for more than 15 minutes. Strangers at a protest do not qualify for this even if they French kissed you.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You must have missed this part;

_"Ask patient about any community settings where may have exposed others_

_Can include public transportation, retail, large community social event, recreational activity, and place of worship and many others_"


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I still remember the day I heard about OJ killing his wife while I was getting ready to go out. It was right when it started. I thought "Gee, this will be big news." Sure enough, it was all over the media. I remember seeing the police chase of OJ. I remember the court case and following along with it. I remember when he got off as not guilty. This was really big news back in the day. It is such a shame that a hero like OJ became a monster. I stopped paying attention after he got off so I am not familiar with what happened in the appeals.



He’s killin’ it: O.J. Simpson is now Twitter’s greatest troll    

“Hello, Twitter world, this is yours truly,” he said in his inaugural video (and every post since — that’s the showman in him, always with a catchphrase). “I got a little gettin’ even to do.”

He notes his residence as Las Vegas and currently has 915,000 followers.









						He’s killin’ it: O.J. Simpson is now Twitter’s greatest troll
					

O.J. Simpson has reinvented himself — as our greatest internet troll. The 72-year-old former athlete, actor, pitchman, felon and the monster found liable in a civil trial for the wrongful deaths of…




					nypost.com


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 2, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Laura - I think you and I could be good friends.  I, too, have a "thing" for the royal family - and I can't explain why.  It seems so shallow.  I remember exactly where I was when Princess Diana was killed as well.
> 
> I can get you up to speed on OJ if you'd like.  Basically he's a pariah in the society / circle he wanted to be in -- and that's fine by me.



Me too. I was on a scuba diving trip in Cozumel when Princess Diana was killed. We did not have access to any media so I was not aware. When I got home, the first person I saw was my grandmother. She said "Isn't it a shame what happened with the Princess." I said, "What happened?" Then my grandmother told me the story. I was horrified. I could not believe it. 

I am always sad and shocked when some of my icons die early. I was not alive when Marilyn Monroe died but I feel like I have lived through her story too. 

Yes, it sounds like we could be good friends. Maybe one day we will meet through our travels! In the meantime, you have a friend on TUG!


----------



## Brett (Jul 2, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> He’s killin’ it: O.J. Simpson is now Twitter’s greatest troll
> 
> “Hello, Twitter world, this is yours truly,” he said in his inaugural video (and every post since — that’s the showman in him, always with a catchphrase). “I got a little gettin’ even to do.”
> 
> ...



-   an old article about O J Simpson 


What does this have to do with the thread title ---   recent increase in coronavirus cases ?

or is it really about black people     .... or notable "*twitter trolls*" ...


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> -   an old article about O J Simpson
> 
> 
> What does this have to do with the thread title ---   recent increase in coronavirus cases ?
> ...



I have no idea why we are talking about OJ and Princess Diana. I am chuckling right now. I think I have coronavirus fatigue and need to talk about something else for awhile.


----------



## cman (Jul 2, 2020)

Getting back on topic. Did y'all see that Florida reported more than 10,000 cases today? The good news is that the deaths are not increasing.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> -   an old article about O J Simpson
> 
> 
> What does this have to do with the thread title ---   recent increase in coronavirus cases ?
> ...



Pay attention now. Seemed O.J. was injected into the thread a few posts ago in an amusing way.

However, if you so choose or are offended it in any manner, I can remove the post if you find it objectionable. Keep in mind though Brett, twas you that mentioned race, not me. In my book, O.J. Simpson was and still is offensive in every manner and should never have seen the light of day. I don't care if he is black, white, purple or green. Therefore, if you don't mind, stop trying to turn this around.

You have a good night though.


----------



## Brett (Jul 2, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Pay attention now. Seemed O.J. was injected into the thread a few posts ago in an amusing way.
> 
> However, if you so choose or are offended it in any manner, I can remove the post if you find it objectionable. Keep in mind though Brett, twas you that mentioned race, not me. In my book, O.J. Simpson was and still is offensive in every manner and should never have seen the light of day. I don't care if he is black, white, purple or green. Therefore, if you don't mind, stop trying to turn this around.
> 
> You have a good night though.




*LOL !*

OK ... I'm guessing you're talking twitter trolls


----------



## bluehende (Jul 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> You missed the call out on assuming that contact tracers have some bias for or against protests and would therefore change how they do that job based on that bias.  Straight up conjecture.   This is not the same as being instructed to ask, or not ask, about a certain thing. People working for a living generally do as boss says.


That call out came from a far right publication.  Even given that they admitted there was plenty of time to get that info.  Show me an internal memorandum that prohibits this question and I will believe that jurisdiction is biased.  I have a hard time assuming a profession is bias for some reason without real data.  Especially one we are relying on now for safety and opening the economy.  I am sure a contract tracer would be careful about that question.  why?

contract tracer

I am from the government.  Have you participated in any anit-government protests lately?

tracee

click


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

It is fine with me if I am the only one who questions a study that claims the increase in new cases in the last 2 weeks is not due even in part to large gatherings where people did not wear masks, stayed close to each other for hours (some for days) and spoke with loud voices. The study was based on data that was collected before June 20th (!) even if the spike was after that. The data was collected and processed by people who live in parts of the country that vote overwhelmingly a certain way and more inclined to be more sympathetic to the protests. It is fine with me if you tell me that people do not have biases or if you tell me they do not that translate into how they do their jobs.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> It is fine with me if I am the only one who questions a study that claims the increase in new cases in the last 2 weeks is not due even in part to large gatherings where people did not wear masks, stayed close to each other for hours (some for days) and spoke with loud voices. The study was based on data that was collected before June 20th (!) even if the spike was after that. The data was collected and processed by people who live in parts of the country that vote overwhelmingly a certain way and more inclined to be more sympathetic to the protests. It is fine with me if you tell me that people do not have biases or if you tell me they do not that translate into how they do their jobs.


Of course the people who see the data and do this for a living are lying and only you know the truth.  

 studying a virus for a month that has an average latency of 7 days seems about right for seeing a response.  The seven day latency comes from the paper I posted in another thread.  Or did somehow that dang virus go dormant to fool them.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Also please show a credible source that does link protests to infections.  As usual I supply a credible  (county department of health) and you talk straight conjecture with  no evidence.


I don't think he's credible, but others may: 

_LA Mayor Garcetti consulted with Dr. Barbara Ferrer, LA County's director of public health, and determined the protests were in fact contributing to the spread of the virus.

“I talked again with Dr. Ferrer about that this morning. She does think some of the spread did come from our protests," he said. "It’s not the act of protesting – that’s a great and American thing to do no matter what your opinion is… but protesting without maintaining physical distancing, without wearing your mask, without having sanitizer – we just have to be smart. Whether you’re at a protest or at your home, whether in your workplace or whether you’re out shopping, these rules don’t change.”

He added, “We do believe there is a connection, we don’t believe that everybody has been doing this safely and wherever you can, please stay at home.”_


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 2, 2020)

davidvel said:


> I don't think he's credible, but others may:
> 
> _LA Mayor Garcetti consulted with Dr. Barbara Ferrer, LA County's director of public health, and determined the protests were in fact contributing to the spread of the virus.
> 
> ...



Yes, I read more about this in the last few hours. However, the only study I’ve seen referenced so far is the one I posted earlier today.

Regardless, Garcetti has been firm in his insistence that everyone in LA wear a mask. So, this study doesn’t help him in that regard... I wouldn’t expect to hear anything other than everyone should wear a mask, etc. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Of course the people who see the data and do this for a living are lying and only you know the truth.
> 
> studying a virus for a month that has an average latency of 7 days seems about right for seeing a response.  The seven day latency comes from the paper I posted in another thread.  Or did somehow that dang virus go dormant to fool them.


You claim to have your comments driven by data and facts yet you fail a simple test by putting words in my mouth. I did not say they are lying, I said they could be biased. Do not say you did not say it because you clearly implied it.

The latency of 7 days could only explain the first transmission but those infected during the protests could transmit to others who transmitted to others and so on. Also, an average of 7 days it is not 7 days. Please quote, only if you have reliable scientific data, the number of days from the first contact until a person is no longer contagious.
Because the study only looked at the new number of cases before June 20th, it does not refer to what happens after that and to the actual surge. In this case your comment is not driven by facts and by data, it is simply a fabrication of the truth.

Your bias does prove my point that those that have it will often omit important details because they do not serve their narrative. You have it like everyone else and it is OK to admit it. It is OK.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 2, 2020)

davidvel said:


> I don't think he's credible, but others may:
> 
> _LA Mayor Garcetti consulted with Dr. Barbara Ferrer, LA County's director of public health, and determined the protests were in fact contributing to the spread of the virus.
> 
> ...


I will say for the third time today.  There is no doubt the virus was spread during these protests.  But the data and the fact that MN, DC, and NY were reporting a decline in cases for 4 weeks after the start of the protest  are real evidence.  If these spikes were due to the protests would not those 3 places be the hotspots?  The data certainly implies that the spread during these events was not a major problem.    If anybody has any evidence of real spread....not national review talking points....let me know.  I thought this was going to be a big problem and have been convinced at this point it was not.  However, no one, no where , at any time has said there was not some spread from these events.


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## cman (Jul 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> It is fine with me if I am the only one who questions a study that claims the increase in new cases in the last 2 weeks is not due even in part to large gatherings where people did not wear masks, stayed close to each other for hours (some for days) and spoke with loud voices. The study was based on data that was collected before June 20th (!) even if the spike was after that. The data was collected and processed by people who live in parts of the country that vote overwhelmingly a certain way and more inclined to be more sympathetic to the protests. It is fine with me if you tell me that people do not have biases or if you tell me they do not that translate into how they do their jobs.


So let me get this right. You make an assertion that the protests lead to the spike in C19 cases. The members of this board provide you with studies and numerous articles citing epidemiologists, doctors and public health professionals that contradict your assertion. You have yet to provide any scientific or data driven evidence to support your position, and now you're questioning the political motivations of the scientists based on their geographical location? If that's not the definition of confirmation bias, I don't know what is. 

If you have ANY factual information to support your position, please share it. We'll wait.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I will say for the third time today.  There is no doubt the virus was spread during these protests.  But the data and the fact that MN, DC, and NY were reporting a decline in cases for 4 weeks after the start of the protest  are real evidence.  If these spikes were due to the protests would not those 3 places be the hotspots?  The data certainly implies that the spread during these events was not a major problem.    If anybody has any evidence of real spread....not national review talking points....let me know.  I thought this was going to be a big problem and have been convinced at this point it was not.  However, no one, no where , at any time has said there was not some spread from these events.


I will add something to what I said above. According to the Italian study you posted in another thread,  viral clearance  ranged from 8 to 13 days so obviously your 7 day latency does not have a leg to stand on.

It is very interesting why NY, DC and MN did not report an increase. In the case of NYC it could be because a quarter had already had the virus so many people were less likely to catch it. I read somewhere that it is normal the second wave to hit states and cities that were not affected much the first round. Maybe the study is right about those other two cities, there were violent events that made a lot of other people stay inside and that reduced the virus there. But that was not the case throughout the nation.


----------



## cman (Jul 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I will add something to what I said above. According to the Italian study you posted in another thread,  viral clearance  ranged from 8 to 13 days so obviously your 7 day latency does not have a leg to stand on.
> 
> It is very interesting why NY, DC and MN did not report an increase. In the case of NYC it could be because a quarter had already had the virus so many people were less likely to catch it. I read somewhere that it is normal the second wave to hit states and cities that were not affected much the first round. Maybe the study is right about those other two cities, there were violent events that made a lot of other people stay inside and that reduced the virus there. But that was not the case throughout the nation.


I'll ask again. If you have ANY factual information to support your position, please share it. You know, the data driven scientific stuff. We'll wait.


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## DannyTS (Jul 3, 2020)

cman said:


> So let me get this right. You make an assertion that the protests lead to the spike in C19 cases. The members of this board provide you with studies and numerous articles citing epidemiologists, doctors and public health professionals that contradict your assertion. You have yet to provide any scientific or data driven evidence to support your position, and now you're questioning the political motivations of the scientists based on their geographical location? If that's not the definition of confirmation bias, I don't know what is.
> 
> If you have ANY factual information to support your position, please share it. We'll wait.


As @davidvel posted above, it looks like the mayor of Los Angeles and his director of public health Dr. Barbara Ferrer also support this point of view, you can no longer say I am the only one who does it. I suggest you take it with them from this moment.

But I also support my position with all the comments you, Ken555, Bluehende and others had made previously when you blamed  anti-lockdown protestors,  people on the beach or at a pool, any owner who dared to open the business for a possible spread.


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## Ken555 (Jul 3, 2020)

FWIW, I believe we will ultimately discover that opening up for business, before we met the minimum requirements, caused this latest first wave surge. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## cman (Jul 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> As @davidvel posted above, it looks like the mayor of Los Angeles and his director of public health Dr. Barbara Ferrer also support this point of view, you can no longer say I am the only one who does it. I suggest you take it with them from this moment.
> 
> But I also support my position with all the comments you, Ken555, Bluehende and others had made previously when you blamed  anti-lockdown protestors,  people on the beach or at a pool, any owner who dared to open the business for a possible spread.


I take that to mean that you have no factual data driven or scientific information to support your position.


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## DannyTS (Jul 3, 2020)

cman said:


> I take that to mean that you have no factual information to support your position.


What Dr Barbara Ferrer said is the most I can give you_ today_. Tomorrow she and the LA mayor will probably retract after a "public outrage"
Everything you know in terms of how this virus is transmitted does support my position  and you know it. I will not hold my breath waiting for an official study to confirm that. It would be suicidal for any university to publish such a material. Can you believe what would happen with their funding and what the students would say after a headline like "According to an UCLA study, X number of people were infected due to the protests and Y number of people are expected to die"


As I said before, if you guys think the protests did not contribute to the spread, I am very happy. It looks like we are a lot more free and we can do a lot more things than we thought before.


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## Ken555 (Jul 3, 2020)

Wow.


In Arizona, Nearly 1 In 4 Coronavirus Tests Now Comes Back Positive



> Arizona is contending with one of the worst outbreaks of any state as coronavirus cases surge again across the United States. Hospitals are bracing for a wave of seriously ill patients, and health officials are pleading with the public to wear masks and heed guidance about social distancing — even in the absence of a second stay-at-home order.
> 
> Arizona was quick to relax restrictions on businesses and reopen its economy, beginning in early May. Most new cases have come in just the past month. Maricopa County, with its Phoenix metro area, now ranks as one of the top five U.S. counties for total cases.
> 
> ...











						In Arizona, Nearly 1 In 4 Coronavirus Tests Now Comes Back Positive — NPR
					

The percentage of positive tests in Arizona is more than three times the national average, and hospital capacity has become a concern.




					apple.news
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Jul 3, 2020)

California is also not doing well now
*California’s COVID-19 Hospitalizations Up 56%; ICU Admissions Up 49%*








						California's COVID-19 Hospitalizations Up 56%; ICU Admissions Up 49%
					

In his Thursday briefing, Newsom said the state's positivity rate has gone up to 6.3% over 14 days. A chart displayed alongside the governor showed the positivity rate started at 40.8% in March and was driven down in the months since.




					losangeles.cbslocal.com


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## cman (Jul 3, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Wow.
> 
> 
> In Arizona, Nearly 1 In 4 Coronavirus Tests Now Comes Back Positive
> ...


Arizona is in serious trouble. With 24% of tests coming back positive, that means that their mitigation procedures are not working and the virus is running rampant through the community. They're rate is where New York was in the third week of March. Two weeks later, they were around 45%. I'll be watching them closely. It looks like my home state of Texas, may be headed in the same direction.


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## Ken555 (Jul 3, 2020)

> Deaths, which had declined steadily for several months, also are rising. States reported that 700 people died Thursday of covid-19 — an increase of more than 25 percent compared to the previous seven-day average.



Over the last few months, we’ve seen many opinions on how to combat C19. Some people primarily watch positive case count as a leading indicator of future hospitalizations and deaths. Others rationalize the positive count by making it seem unimportant in various ways (“everyone will get it”, “can we trust it”, etc). We get distracted by incomplete studies, news reports, half truths, and other updates. Uninformed, uneducated opinions replace the best facts we have available, and distrust of our experts increases as they fight to learn more about this disease and change recommendations.

In all cases, I don’t believe anyone has disputed the importance of the death count. Naturally, there are some who question the accuracy of the numbers, especially now that multiple states are no longer distinguishing cause of death and hiding other important info. Even with all these considerations, it was the death count that some looked to as justification for staying open for business. The death count is down, some say, as positive count numbers increase...so either the virus is no longer as damaging, or perhaps younger people being infected are better able to survive, or doctors have learned better methods of treatment to lower the death rate, or or or or. 

Today the death counts have increased. In some cases, dramatically increased. 

If you are not wearing a mask when leaving your home, do so now. Encourage others to wear a mask. Protect your families, friends, neighbors and communities. Do it now. Do not wait until you are convinced this is a real threat to people you know. If you are uncomfortable with your mask, buy a different one. If you “know better”, then do everyone else a favor and just stay home.

Many of us know people who have died from C19. One of my cousins died this week. Many of us know people who have C19 and survived, yet are uncertain of its lasting implications on their lives. Healthy, young professionals in New York who survived C19 are reporting lingering severe issues 100 days later. Be safe, protect yourself and those around you.



> Perhaps most chillingly, at the urging of doctors and advisers, state officials this week activated “crisis standards of care” protocols, which determine for hospitals which patients get ventilators and care as the system becomes overwhelmed under the crush of patients.
> 
> “I think it’s pretty obvious that we are not going in the right direction,” Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s top infectious-disease expert, said during a YouTube live stream.





> Deaths, which had declined steadily for several months, also are rising. States reported that 700 people died Thursday of covid-19 — an increase of more than 25 percent compared to the previous seven-day average.
> 
> “We are not flattening the curve right now,” Brett Giroir, the U.S. government’s coronavirus testing coordinator, said during a House hearing. “The curve is still going up.”
> 
> ...











						As coronavirus rebounds, more patients are being hospitalized and capacity is stretched — The Washington Post
					

Five states set records for hospitalizations as Texas reverses course and mandates face masks




					apple.news
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk[/quote]


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## TravelTime (Jul 3, 2020)

Now Covid is destroying families. It is worse now that we are re-opening and family members have different risk tolerance. It was easier during SIP/SAH. Now people need to decide what they are comfortable doing. Husbands and wives have different opinions. So do extended families and friends. I just live with my husband and we are on the same page. My extended family is in Florida. They are doing things I do not agree with. I am texting them telling them to be careful and follow the guidelines even at family events. This spreads in families.









						America’s Leaders Can’t Agree on Reopening Protocols. Neither Can Families.
					

The question of how to live life under shifting coronavirus precautions—parties, weddings, grandchild visits, golfing—is straining relations among friends and relatives. “Boys, you’re too close to Grandma.”




					www.wsj.com


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## Brett (Jul 3, 2020)

July 3, 2020

Confirmed coronavirus cases are rising in *40 of 50 states*

With the number of daily confirmed coronavirus cases nationwide climbing past 50,000, an alarming 36 states saw an increase in the percentage of tests coming back positive for the virus.  Arizona, California, Florida and Texas — reported a combined 25,000 new confirmed coronavirus cases Thursday as the infection curve rose in 40 of the 50 states heading into the July Fourth holiday weekend.

The surge has been blamed in part on Americans not covering their faces or following other social distancing rules as states lifted their lockdowns over the past few weeks.

*https://apnews.com/0468a60b64947879926d2a16e45c00ee?*


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## pedro47 (Jul 3, 2020)

I still feel, it is my civil duty to wear a mask to protect myself, my spouse, my family members, my friends and my fellow Americans from the coronavirus.


----------



## bogey21 (Jul 3, 2020)

Texas Governor just instituted Statewide mask requirement.  Two housekeepers in my CCRC tested positive on June 25 and are now quarantined.  So far none of our 400+ Residents have tested positive.  My guess is that it is just a matter of time until one is.  As an aside when the virus first hit months agoI cancelled housekeeping for my apartment...

George


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## pedro47 (Jul 3, 2020)

Bogey21, please stay safe and wear a mask or a face shield.


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## CPNY (Jul 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I am not sure I agree with the premise that Sweden is doing poorly.  Just look at this graph, the number of serious cases has been going down. The naysayers are always comparing to their neighbors forgetting that Sweden had an early spring break (mid February) and brought a lot of cases from Europe. Their neighbors had the spring breaks mid-March when travel restrictions were already in place so nobody traveled abroad. If you look at the number of cases in Sweden in March-April (most likely due to the travel in February) you will see I am right, Sweden started from a much higher base line.
> 
> 
> *View attachment 22699
> ...


I’m wondering if they are admitting people with more mild symptoms to get that covid check.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 3, 2020)

The experts predicted back in March, that most everyone will eventually get this highly contagious virus, and now it appears that a half to a percent of those people will die. It seems they were right in this prediction, and that is very sad.


----------



## dsmrp (Jul 3, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> FWIW, I believe we will ultimately discover that opening up for business, before we met the minimum requirements, caused this latest first wave surge.
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


+1

On another note, in medical scientific terms from my college micro days, we're talking about morbidity and mortality (M&M). 
Morbidity: the rate of incidence, or having disease or condition in the population.
Mortality: the death rate due to disease or condition.

Covid 19 has both high morbidity and mortality. Ebola OTOH, has fortunately, low morbidity but extremely high mortality.

DH and I  have read in multiple articles that one of the more recent Covid-19 mutations is more infectious. But perhaps causing fewer deaths than earlier in March-April.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/06/29/coronavirus-mutation-science/
		










						Mutated COVID-19 Viral Strain in U.S. and Europe 10 Times More Contagious than Original Strain | BioSpace
					

Researchers have found that the strains spreading so quickly in Europe and the U.S. have a mutated S “spike” protein that makes it about 10 times more infectious than the strain that originally was identified in Asia.




					www.biospace.com


----------



## davidvel (Jul 3, 2020)

dsmrp said:


> DH and I  have read in multiple articles that one of the more recent Covid-19 mutations is more infectious. But perhaps causing fewer deaths than earlier in March-April.


That's what the prior cornonavirus eventually did.


----------



## Bucky (Jul 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> The experts predicted back in March, that most everyone will eventually get this highly contagious virus, and now it appears that a half to a percent of those people will die. It seems they were right in this prediction, and that is very sad.



Say What? An expert that was right! Can’t be in this day and age.


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## bbodb1 (Jul 4, 2020)

Bucky said:


> Say What? *An expert that was right*! Can’t be in this day and age.



Well out of the thousands of them (experts), eventually one of them would be right......


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 4, 2020)

Okay, I know dissing experts has become a popular sport, but it irks me.  I take it the alternative is that you can believe whatever you want and you are just as likely to be right (with a certain smuggness that you are an advanced thinker) as anyone else. What you believe makes no diffence at all.

Let's start by differentiating two situations. In some cases, the truth is not that easy to discover and experts are well divided and at odds with each other. In that case, one can legitiately question whether one particular expert is correct or not.

On the other hand, there are situations where the vast, vast majority of experts are of one opinion, but there are a couple of experts who disagree. Suppose you had the opportunity to play Russian roulette knowing that ninety eight to ninety nine of the chambers were loaded and two were empty. A second gun has ninety-eight to ninety nine chambers empty, but two loaded. If you had to play, which gun would you choose? I really doubt that you would say one is just as good as the other.

Have the experts been wrong? In scenario one, of course. In scenario two, very, very rarely. Gamble on the mostly unloaded gun.

By the way, about Columbus. At the time, the experts (not the common public) pretty well all agreed that the Earth was spherical. Where they disagreed with Columbus was that they thought that the Earth was much bigger (about the size that it really is) than Columbus. Columbus totally lucked out in that there was a set of unknown continents between Europe and Asia. If it had not been for that, he would have died at sea for lack of supplies. (He was close to that when he hit upon land.)


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## Yellowfin (Jul 4, 2020)




----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 4, 2020)

When politics trump health concerns, it is time for some new experts.  Idiotic conclusions such as those illustrated below are just more examples of why the 'experts' aren't.









						Over 1,000 health professionals sign a letter saying, Don't shut down protests using coronavirus concerns as an excuse | CNN
					

A group of health and medical colleagues has penned an open letter to express their concern that protests around the United States could be shut down under the guise of coronavirus health concerns.   The letter -- which went on to draw more than 1,200 signatures -- focuses on techniques to...




					www.cnn.com
				












						Large protests not responsible for rise in Florida's COVID-19 cases, state health experts say
					

Research indicates large protests are not responsible for the current COVID-19 spike in Florida, or in other states experiencing a surge in new cases.




					www.fox13news.com


----------



## vacationtime1 (Jul 4, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> *When politics trump health concerns, it is time for some new experts. * Idiotic conclusions such as those illustrated below are just more examples of why the 'experts' aren't.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



When politics trump health concerns, it is time for some new politicians.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 4, 2020)

vacationtime1 said:


> When politics trump health concerns, it is time for new politicians.


I'm fine with clean sweep all around the place.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 4, 2020)

*Catastrophizing*

Catastrophizing is when someone assumes that the worst will happen. Often, it involves believing that you’re in a worse situation than you really are or exaggerating the difficulties you face.









						What is Catastrophizing? 6 Ways To Stop it
					

Catastrophizing is a way of thinking that assumes things are worse than they are or will have a far worse outcome than is realistic. Individuals who are prone to catastrophic thinking may also have other conditions such as anxiety, depression, or chronic pain. The exact cause of catastrophizing...




					www.healthline.com
				





Is this now the new normal? Are we now sure that some negative thought will spiral into an imminent disaster?

Every day we read and hear the worst case scenario. Deaths and hospitalizations are the extreme part of the spectrum of Covid-19. Yes, some people will die and some people will be hospitalized. However, based on the total rate of infection, a very small percentage of the total who may contract the virus will. Think for just a minute, the overwhelming percentage of individuals WILL NOT. Why simply focus on the worst cases? Because that's what sells paper. Because that's what sells advertising space. Day in and day out, we hear every tragic story they can find so, before we know it, a situation we’re concerned about becomes a full-blown worst-case scenario.

Sorry to tell you this but, most people who contract this virus only have a mild illness and are able to recover at home. Yes, and I shudder to tell you this but, you will probably have a dry cough, tiredness and fever or feeling feverish/chills, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, muscle pain or body aches. Try to stray from the headlines or breaking news and understand, most people, about 80%, recover from the disease without needing special treatment, and for the vast majority illness due to COVID-19 is generally minor.

So, without further ado, we will now return you to your regularly scheduled catastrophizing


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 4, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> ...So, without further ado, we will now return you to your regularly scheduled catastrophizing


...definitely in progress!


----------



## GregT (Jul 4, 2020)

There is an interesting letter (within the article) from a Texas medical group.   It's the only one of it's kind that I've seen and I'm curious if we will see more or of this is an anomaly.  Strange days...

Best,

Greg









						Why We Should Not Be Concerned About Increasing Covid-19 Cases in...
					

"That increased testing means we are discovering more young and healthy people with COVID-19 should not be surprising or alarming in the slightest. The hospitals are under financial pressure from having to mostly stop doing business for months, so they are classifying as many people as possible...




					www.aier.org


----------



## klpca (Jul 4, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> *Catastrophizing*
> 
> Catastrophizing is when someone assumes that the worst will happen. Often, it involves believing that you’re in a worse situation than you really are or exaggerating the difficulties you face.
> 
> ...


While I agree with you about the fallacy of catastrophizing (I was raised to "always prepare for the worst" but learned that preparing for the "most likely" was a better plan) when you have an underlying health condition you have to be realistic about things. I am on immunosupressants. Have been for almost 10 years, and for some reason all of the handwashing in the world didn't help me in 2019/2020. I had multiple health issues (nothing major - I just got everything going around - every darn thing including an awful case of the flu), so just on a personal level I don't want to get it. I get things more severely than the average person. We are self quarantining for the foreseeable future, because we can (financially). We are so lucky. Some have to continue working and accepting the risk that is much higher for them than the average person.

Immunocompromised people of all varieties depend on the kindness of others to stay healthy as we are affected by the behaviors of others. I want to visit with friends. I want to see my relatives. I just want my old life back. Until we get this thing under control, it is not going to happen. But if everyone would just wear an inexpensive mask when they go out and live their lives, it might happen. Plus the economy would be on the road to recovery faster. So if the motivating factor is the economy instead of helping someone who is immunocompromised so be it. I truly don't care why someone wears a mask. Be part of the solution. Wear a mask.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 4, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> *Catastrophizing*
> 
> Catastrophizing is when someone assumes that the worst will happen. Often, it involves believing that you’re in a worse situation than you really are or exaggerating the difficulties you face.
> 
> ...








WVBaker said:


> "Essentially the entire problem we are having is due to panic, not the virus," he said. "I was saying this six weeks ago. We have six deaths from the coronavirus, 18,000 from the flu. Why isn't the message, 'Get your flu vaccine?'"
> 
> Pinsky, host of "Dr. Drew After Dark," said the coronavirus impact has been milder than initially projected.
> 
> ...


----------



## cman (Jul 4, 2020)

GregT said:


> There is an interesting letter (within the article) from a Texas medical group.   It's the only one of it's kind that I've seen and I'm curious if we will see more or of this is an anomaly.  Strange days...
> 
> Best,
> 
> ...


The letter you reference is from the Managing Partner and General Counsel of that medical group. He's their lawyer. While I agree with some of the points he makes, I think epidemiologists, virologists and public health professionals are a better source of information.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 4, 2020)

One really positive development from C19, it has really curtailed people from invading my personal space, especially while waiting in lines.  

But can it cure man spreading?


----------



## davidvel (Jul 4, 2020)

Other good news from C19, money saved and justice finally served:








						Scott Erskine dies while on death row due to COVID-19
					

Erskine was sentenced to death in San Diego County on Sept. 1, 2004, for the first-degree murders of the two boys.




					www.cbs8.com


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 4, 2020)

My turn to vent ...

When I look world wide, I see where conditions have improved immensely in almost all the advanced nations with the exception of the United States. Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, (I skip over China and Russia in that, like many, I do not trust information coming out of these countries), they are all facing flare ups that are probably going to be hard to totally extinguish. Still, these nations have progressed enough thatare opening up their economies, starting to reintroduce tourism, and, without too much debate, _talking about opening up their school_s. So why are we so different?

My answer is really going to irritate some, but when I look back, we have had not just a few, but many people promoting excuses that it is not so bad. It is no worse than the flu, it is just the people crossing the border, we are doing more testing, it is because we tested in prison, etc. (Some of the other things that I might mention are too political.) While not their intention, all of this denial, by not just a few people, has left us in bad shape, much worse than any of the other advanced nations.

Rather than responding no, no, no, just open up your minds to well, maybe.

PS  Before closing, I want to add that the chart in Yellowfin's last post comes from a very credible source, The Covid Tracking Project. What I would do differently, however, is look at their entire overviews and not just one chart. The Tracking Project issues periodic assessments of the current situation. Their most recent is here. I suspect that everyone will find something that they like in this summary, but it needs to be taken as a whole.









						Analysis & updates | This Week in COVID-19 Data, July 2: Across the US, Outbreaks Are Catching Fire
					

The COVID Tracking Project collects and publishes the most complete testing data available for US states and territories.




					covidtracking.com


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 4, 2020)

Second, well not a vent, but a concern ...

Admittedly, most those currently testing positive are younger, without serious illness. Still, I think it is too early to declare a victory lap. Chicken pox, Herpes, and HIV are all viruses where people recover from the outbreak, but the viruses remain dormant in the body and often flare up later. There are some disturbing stories out there (yes, I am catastrophizing) where people are having symptoms of coVid linger and break out well over six months later. Some early reports that people were catching coVid twice were later dismissed as a single case, but flaring up later. 

This is a new disease and we really don't know if it like one of the viruses above, the cold or flu (which reoccur, but only in variants), or one time occurences. I certainly wouldn't bet the store on it being like the initial diseases that I mentioned, but it is enough of a possibility, that I am not declaring victory once someone has gotten it without serious effects.


----------



## DrQ (Jul 4, 2020)

GregT said:


> There is an interesting letter (within the article) from a Texas medical group.   It's the only one of it's kind that I've seen and I'm curious if we will see more or of this is an anomaly.  Strange days...
> 
> Best,
> 
> ...


BullShot -
From your article:
"Recall that the original idea of “flattening the curve” was not to make the virus go away but to slow the spread of infections to prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed in the short run (this was never an issue in Texas). The stay at home order for two weeks was meant to buy time for hospitals to get enough equipment and deal with patients over time rather than all at once. *The good news is the hospitals were never overrun*."​
But Hidalgo and Starr counties in Texas are at capacity and are shipping patients to other cities.









						Hidalgo County, Starr County and Valley Baptist Health System warn hospitals are at capacity
					

Hidalgo County, Starr County and the Valley Baptist Health System warned Friday that Rio Grande Valley hospitals, faced with an influx of coronavirus patients, had hit capacity.




					www.krgv.com
				




Harris county is about to go into phase 3 and unlock an additional 370 ICU beds









						Harris County coronavirus count: 1,453 new cases brings county total over 30,000
					

The total number of cases in Harris County now stands at 30,729, with 19,955 of those cases considered active and 10,398 confirmed to have recovered.




					communityimpact.com
				




The paper was written by a ultra libertarian think tank an the "medical group" they consulted is a private ER group that the charges are sky high compared to a normal hospital. They do not operate full service hospitals, just private (outside insurance network) ER's where they can skim the cream.


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Jul 4, 2020)

I know that if you agree with what I write below it will bolster your position.  If you disagree, the you will disregard.  Even so here goes.

Often you will see as a reason not to worry about Covid 19 because "it's no worse than the seasonal flu"

So I went to the CDC and worldometers.com for the fact related to the US.  In the last flu season, from the CDC, in cases of flu reported deaths from the flu were .09%.  To be clear, that isn't 9% it is less than 1%.  Please don't be insulted as you probably know how %'s work, but many people don't.

Out of all cases of Covid19 reported in the US, to date the death rate is 4.6%.  That is 51 times higher than death from flu.  If you look at another statistic, the % of closed cases that are closed because of death is 10%.  This number has moved around a lot, from a high of 21% to a low of 8%.  The actual number will only be known when this pandemic ends.  

Obviously the numbers can change when we are able to actually count all the cases, now unknown, and the number of deaths, not attributed to COVIC19.

The only person I know who contracted the disease, was a young man, healthy, rode bikes, exercised, did yoga, and ate healthy.  He became so ill he feared he was going to die.  I am so thankful he didn't.  He doesn't know how he contracted it, as he and his girlfriend ordered all food delivered, didn't go out much and when the did practice distancing and wore a mask.  He was able to work from home.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 4, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> I know that if you agree with what I write below it will bolster your position.  If you disagree, the you will disregard.  Even so here goes.
> 
> Often you will see as a reason not to worry about Covid 19 because "it's no worse than the seasonal flu"
> 
> ...


The problem with this "analysis" is the flu rate is based upon scientifically determined infections, not tests. Your numbers for C19, are for confirmed tests, which are estimated to be 10% or less of total infections. So the C19 death per infection number is probably closer to .2-.5%, or about 2-5x that of the flu. 

And no the actual number will never be known for flu or C19 unless you could test everyone for each, every season.


----------



## vacationtime1 (Jul 4, 2020)

deleted


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> The problem with this "analysis" is the flu rate is based upon scientifically determined infections, not tests. Your numbers for C19, are for confirmed tests, which are estimated to be 10% or less of total infections. So the C19 death per infection number is probably closer to .2-.5%, or about 2-5x that of the flu.
> 
> And no the actual number will never be known for flu or C19 unless you could test everyone for each, every season.



The reality is that flu deaths are as much estimated as COVID-19 deaths.


----------



## GregT (Jul 4, 2020)

GregT said:


> There is an *interesting letter (within the article)* from a Texas medical group.   It's the only one of it's kind that I've seen and I'm curious if we will see more or of this is an anomaly.  Strange days...
> 
> Best,
> 
> ...



Wow.  It is interesting how quickly someone can be on the defensive when going against the stream.

All I was doing was referencing the letter (that was written within the article) -- and yes, the article is from a Libertarian leaning group and yes, the letter was written by their General Counsel.   His concern about "becoming a target" is spot on these days -- I wonder if he regrets writing the letter (to Alex Berenson, who originally reported it).

His comments are consistent with comments from others:









						UPMC doctor sees too much focus on rising COVID-19 cases, too little on declining severity and hospitalizations
					

However, Dr. Donald Yealy and another UPMC official stressed it's no reason not to wear a mask and continue social distancing.




					www.pennlive.com
				












						Coronavirus 'has withered from an aggressive tiger to a wild cat'
					

Professor Matteo Bassetti, an infectious diseases doctor in Genoa, Italy, suggests a genetic mutation, better treatments, or smaller quantities of the virus could be reducing danger.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




To reiterate, I don't know what to believe -- and I continue to wear a mask and socially distance.   But I will continue to look for data that either confirms that things are as awful as headlines suggest or is the story more complicated?

I wish we would hear from doctors in other hot spots to see if there is a difference in patients that are presenting now, versus 90 days ago, and if the patients are responding differently.  Wouldn't that be good to know?   Shouldn't "journalists" be curious to follow this story and report on it?  Even if the answer comes out that things are as awful as we are being told, that too would be good to know.

These are strange times.

Best,

Greg


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 4, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> I know that if you agree with what I write below it will bolster your position.  If you disagree, the you will disregard.  Even so here goes.
> 
> Often you will see as a reason not to worry about Covid 19 because "it's no worse than the seasonal flu"
> 
> ...


Can you please provide the source where you found the deaths from flu were 0.09%?


----------



## klpca (Jul 4, 2020)

Cornell said:


> One really positive development from C19, it has really curtailed people from invading my personal space, especially while waiting in lines.


Yes. I would be very happy if everyone had to stay 6 feet away from me in a store - forever.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 4, 2020)

@GregT  You might enjoy @EthicalSkeptic on Twitter


----------



## nerodog (Jul 4, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I think the main reason for the surge in cases is that people are getting together in big gatherings, at restaurants, at stores, together with family and friends, etc. without social distancing or wearing masks. When everyone was staying home, of course the virus would not spread. How could it? No one was in contact. Then the states reopened without clear guidance and boom, the cases went up because everyone thought it was safe to be social again. This is to be expected. We can’t stay home until 2021 or longer until there is a vaccine or treatment. The government needs a coordinated strategy and clear messaging and clear mandates if we are to get the cases rates back down. They are beating Covid in other countries. Other countries are reopening and cases are not soaring. Why can‘t the USA reopen safely?


Well said... people have to make the effort and act like the virus is out there.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 4, 2020)

I found the earlier misleading posts about state reopening plans disquieting. If those whom I had thought were well informed (based solely on their historical posts on TUG, as I only have met a few members over the years in person) are not, then it changes my perception of the value of TUG posts significantly. So, I thought it would be worthwhile for me to look into the details of the reopening plans for at least those states which are experiencing significant increasing positive C19 numbers and a higher Rt, starting with Florida. Hopefully this summary will be valuable to you, as well.

On April 29 Florida announced their reopening plans which started on April 30. [#'s in brackets are the C19 positive case count for Florida from https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida#historical]
May 4: Phase One reopening. 16,081 tests, of which 819 were positive (5.09%) [36,897]
May 11: Phase One expansion (Palm Beach County and opened more business types (barbershops, salons, etc)). [40,982]
May 14: Phase One expansion (Miami-Dade and Broward Counties). [43,210]
End of May: certain areas were permitted to reopen restaurants with certain restrictions.
June 1: Miami-Dade reopened hotels and pools. [56,830]
June 5: Phase Two (all counties except Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach) may reopen more businesses (restaurants, bars, museums, gyms, retail stores, movie theaters, auditoriums, bowling alleys and more may operate at 50% occupancy); "personal services" businesses such as tattoos, piercings, acupencture, tanning and massage fully open with "appropriate safety guidelines". Specific local guidelines were announced in various Florida cities. Universal Orlando opens its parks. [61,488]
June 11: SeaWorld reopens [69,069]
June 19: Gov DeSantis not concerned about increasing C19 positive cases. https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...e-as-state-continues-to-see-increasing-cases/ [89.748]
June 20: Orange County (Orlando) mandates masks in public. [93,797]
June 26: Bars no longer to serve alcohol for on-site consumption (this restriction does not apply to restaurants). [122,960]
June 27: South Florida announces beaches will be closed for July 4th weekend. [132,545]
July 3: 49,177 tests, of which 9,488 were positive (19.29%) (https://rt.live/us/FL)
July 4: [190,052 as of 7/4/20 12:53pm ET]

In the two months since reopening began, the C19 positive case count has increased by over 500%. As of today, the Rt for Florida is at 1.30. And Florida is still open.

More info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida,  https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/20/timeline-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-florida/, https://rt.live/us/FL

What is Rt (or R0)? 








						What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections
					

R0 indicates how contagious a disease is. Learn how it works and the R0 values for various diseases.




					www.healthline.com
				





"Plan for Florida's Recovery: Report to Governor DeSantis from the Re-Open Florida Task Force": https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/covid19/Taskforce Report.pdf





*Takeaway: If the numbers get bad, Florida will not progress to the next phase. But...did they follow their own plan? No.*





Did this plan work? Did/do they act upon the information quickly?

Florida testing summary (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida):






*Florida testing sites could run out of supplies soon as COVID-19 case numbers rise [June 29]*


> USF doctors say ideally hundreds of thousands more people should be tested per day to get an accurate picture of where the virus is in Florida.





> TAMPA, Fla. — Almost four months into fighting the coronavirus outbreak, testing sites across Florida are falling behind.
> 
> “I think all these places having so many positive cases so quickly, we got back in the same situation that we saw earlier on in the spring, which is where we're running out of testing supplies,” Dr. Jill Roberts with the University of South Florida Public Health said.
> 
> ...



*Takeaway: insufficient testing, insufficient supplies. *

And then there's this disturbing story, which validates the concern many of us have about the accuracy of any numbers coming out of the local government:

*Trust Index: Just how many people has Florida tested for COVID-19?*
*Florida Department of Health includes coronavirus re-tests in statewide testing totals *








						Trust Index: Just how many people has Florida tested for COVID-19?
					

On Tuesday, the state’s COVID-19 dashboard reported there have been nearly 2 million “total people tested.” But that number could be misleading.




					www.news4jax.com
				









*Florida would need to triple contact tracing workforce to meet pandemic criteria*








						Florida would need to triple contact tracing workforce to meet pandemic criteria
					

Imagine being given a list of 23 people and told that you need to track down and contact every person that each of those 23 people has come into contact with in the last two weeks. Time is of the essence because those contacts may have been exposed to COVID-19.




					www.fox13news.com
				





> According to the National Association of County and City Health Officials, during a pandemic, about 30 contact tracers are needed for every 100,000 people. The latest data show there are only eight states that meet the threshold.
> 
> In order for Florida to meet the same threshold, it would need to nearly triple its workforce to around 6,500 contact tracers.



*As COVID-19 Spreads Across South Florida, Pressure Builds to Boost Contact Tracing    *








						As COVID-19 Spreads Across South Florida, Pressure Builds to Boost Contact Tracing
					

Contact tracing is like detective work that helps contain COVID-19. When someone tests positive, a contact tracer starts an investigation to find out who…




					www.wlrn.org
				




*Takeaway: Florida is not adequately prepared for contact tracing*


----------



## klpca (Jul 4, 2020)

I think that it is high time for some to stay away from all media and go straight to the source for information. I think that there is more of an issue with media headlines/talking points than the information itself. 

Maybe that is why I am not as affected. I simply do not watch network news, and rarely local news. The news shows and the talking heads don't rile me up because they don't exist in my world. I read two newspapers, one local and one national. I'm good. I can figure things out because most companies and government agencies have....websites. You can get your own information straight from the source. Stay away from blogs too, or just read them with a bit of skepticism because they are as biased as they come. Sure they are entertaining, but do you really think that someone who writes a blog is inherently smarter than you? Feel free to do your own thinking. 

Try it, you'll like it!


----------



## Brett (Jul 4, 2020)

klpca said:


> I think that it is high time for some to stay away from all media and go straight to the source for information. I think that there is more of an issue with media headlines/talking points than the information itself.
> 
> Maybe that is why I am not as affected. I simply do not watch network news, and rarely local news. The news shows and the talking heads don't rile me up because they don't exist in my world. I read two newspapers, one local and one national. I'm good. I can figure things out because most companies and government agencies have....websites. You can get your own information straight from the source. Stay away from blogs too, or just read them with a bit of skepticism because they are as biased as they come. Sure they are entertaining, but do you really think that someone who writes a blog is inherently smarter than you? Feel free to do your own thinking.
> 
> Try it, you'll like it!



I watch local and national news (NBC) and a couple of newspapers - WSJ and NYT

I don't look at the social media "blogs" and 24/7 cable shows

I don't get riled up ....


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I found the earlier misleading posts about state reopening plans disquieting. If those whom I had thought were well informed (based solely on their historical posts on TUG, as I only have met a few members over the years in person) are not, then it changes my perception of the value of TUG posts significantly. So, I thought it would be worthwhile for me to look into the details of the reopening plans for at least those states which are experiencing significant increasing positive C19 numbers and a higher Rt, starting with Florida. Hopefully this summary will be valuable to you, as well.
> 
> On April 29 Florida announced their reopening plans which started on April 30. [#'s in brackets are the C19 positive case count for Florida from https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida#historical]
> May 4: Phase One reopening. 16,081 tests, of which 819 were positive (5.09%) [36,897]
> ...


You have commented a lot about Florida, never a negative comment about how New York has managed the crisis few weeks ago. To keep things in prospective you have the statistics below. There are more people who live in Florida than in NY (by about 2 million). You can still catch up on criticizing NY but I guess we all know why you focus on certain states all the time.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 4, 2020)

klpca said:


> I think that it is high time for some to stay away from all media and go straight to the source for information. I think that there is more of an issue with media headlines/talking points than the information itself.
> 
> Maybe that is why I am not as affected. I simply do not watch network news, and rarely local news. The news shows and the talking heads don't rile me up because they don't exist in my world. I read two newspapers, one local and one national. I'm good. I can figure things out because most companies and government agencies have....websites. You can get your own information straight from the source. Stay away from blogs too, or just read them with a bit of skepticism because they are as biased as they come. Sure they are entertaining, but do you really think that someone who writes a blog is inherently smarter than you? Feel free to do your own thinking.
> 
> Try it, you'll like it!



I read info from many sources, including local governments (I quoted one in my post earlier today). Sadly, local governments are often not the best source for info any longer since they are also interpreting data. In Florida’s case, they are also not classifying certain data so it’s even harder to get accurate info. 

I think your real point is to always ask why. Find out more info. Make intelligent conclusions based on the evidence. For that, I agree completely.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Jul 4, 2020)

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 4, 2020)

deleted


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## klpca (Jul 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I read info from many sources, including local governments (I quoted one in my post earlier today). Sadly, local governments are often not the best source for info any longer since they are also interpreting data. In Florida’s case, they are also not classifying certain data so it’s even harder to get accurate info.
> 
> I think your real point is to always ask why. Find out more info. Make intelligent conclusions based on the evidence. For that, I agree completely.
> 
> ...


Our county covid site is just numbers (at least the part where I get my information). How many tested, how many positive, which zip codes, what ages etc. I wish that they were more transparent about where the community outbreaks have occurred so that I can avoid those hot spots. Is your county different? 

At any rate, yes I am just saying don't feel the need to get your news predigested. Everyone on this board is smart enough to figure out timeshare systems so no one needs to trust the media as a sole source for anything. There are other ways to get some more information than just another news show. That said, I know what I know, and I know what I *don't* know and I don't presume to know more than someone who has made their career studying epidemiology, for example. I will defer to their knowledge.

Carry on tuggers!! Of to start another thread. Come join me and let's discuss your covid drinks.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 4, 2020)

“Don’t get riled up.”

Yes, I agree. There is too much fighting over sources and what media you watch. Be chill. Smart people can sift through it all and come to reasonable conclusions. No need for so much fighting on Tug.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 4, 2020)

I was going to research Arizona, California, and Texas (with Florida these are the four hot spots right now, though I expect that to change) next but it seems this info isn't desired. So much for critical thinking on TUG! Moving on... I'll chime in if needed (ie. when I next see questionable comments), but won't spend much time on this any longer other than more news when appropriate. 

I, for one, do not accept the premise that we must learn to live with C19, especially since we had (and have, at least for the moment) the opportunity to flatten the curve, again.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I was going to research Arizona, California, and Texas (with Florida these are the four hot spots right now, though I expect that to change) next but it seems this info isn't desired. So much for critical thinking on TUG! Moving on... I'll chime in if needed (ie. when I next see questionable comments), but won't spend much time on this any longer other than more news when appropriate.
> 
> I, for one, do not accept the premise that we must learn to live with C19, especially since we had (and have, at least for the moment) the opportunity to flatten the curve, again.



Sharing info and critical thinking is fine. It is all the fighting and insulting that needs to stop.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 4, 2020)

@TravelTime ...and the condescension


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I found the earlier misleading posts about state reopening plans disquieting. If those whom I had thought were well informed (based solely on their historical posts on TUG, as I only have met a few members over the years in person) are not, then it changes my perception of the value of TUG posts significantly.



@Ken555 Here’s an example of something you could omit when you post. There is no need to insult other people in order to share helpful information and help educate us on Tug. I appreciate the data you share but not when it is preceded with this. Then I do not read what follows. I am sure you spent a lot of valuable time researching this and it is appreciated.


----------



## cman (Jul 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I was going to research Arizona, California, and Texas (with Florida these are the four hot spots right now, though I expect that to change) next but it seems this info isn't desired. So much for critical thinking on TUG! Moving on... I'll chime in if needed (ie. when I next see questionable comments), but won't spend much time on this any longer other than more news when appropriate.
> 
> I, for one, do not accept the premise that we must learn to live with C19, especially since we had (and have, at least for the moment) the opportunity to flatten the curve, again.


I appreciate the information you provide. I also appreciate the information provided by those of differing views. Please continue doing what you're doing. You're fine.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 5, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> @Ken555 Here’s an example of something you could omit when you post. There is no need to insult other people in order to share helpful information and help educate us on Tug. I appreciate the data you share but not when it is preceded with this. Then I do not read what follows. I am sure you spent a lot of valuable time researching this and it is appreciated.



I’m going to write whatever I feel is necessary. I’m sorry if you don’t like it, so feel free to block me anytime. I’m glad you appreciated some of my comments, but clearly you don’t see the insults others send my way since you haven’t corrected them. If you’re going to pretend to take the high road, at least try to do so objectively. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ken555 (Jul 5, 2020)

cman said:


> I appreciate the information you provide. I also appreciate the information provided by those of differing views. Please continue doing what you're doing. You're fine.



Thank you.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## WinniWoman (Jul 5, 2020)

People can read the posts here, but also should probably do their own research to come to their own conclusions. 

Ken- avatars can't breathe so they really don't need to wear masks. LOL! I'm teasing you!


----------



## Brett (Jul 5, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I’m going to write whatever I feel is necessary. I’m sorry if you don’t like it, so feel free to block me anytime. I’m glad you appreciated some of my comments, but clearly you don’t see the insults others send my way since you haven’t corrected them. If you’re going to pretend to take the high road, at least try to do so objectively.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



good





https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/coronavirus-myrtle-beach.html


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 5, 2020)

The modern Western societies have been built on accepting and encouraging different points of view. Now that is changing, you can be eviscerated for even asking questions. You are uninformed, misguided and probably have evil motives. Not only you do not get it, you are a bad person (you choose the wallet vs. lives narrative for example).


----------



## bluehende (Jul 5, 2020)

Hong Kong

The numbers








						Hong Kong COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Hong Kong Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




If we had reacted early and effectively like Hong Kong a city of 7.5 million we could have had numbers like these.  They had first cases about when we did and have a very dense population.  They also have experienced demonstrations.

Normalizing for population

equivalent deaths in the us would be 500 not 130000  (Hong Kong 10)

Our current 7 day average of new cases  would be 450 not over 45000 (Hong Kong 9)

While Hong Kong is probably the most extreme difference the basic premise holds for all of Asia.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 5, 2020)

key points from this interview:

++“There are already more than 50 studies that have presented results on how many people in different countries and locations have developed antibodies to the virus,”

++based on those studies he estimates that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected by COVID-19 around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases

++“Globally, the lock-down measures have increased the number of people at risk of starvation to 1.1 billion, and they are putting at risk millions of lives,”

++“For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05%-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially.”

++The vast majority of people who die with a COVID-19 label have at least one and typically many other comorbidities. This means that often they have other reasons that would lead them to death. The relative contribution of COVID-19 needs very careful audit and evaluation of medical records.









						Up to 300 Million People May Be Infected by Covid-19, Stanford Guru John Ioannidis Says
					

Leading epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University estimates that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected by COVID-19 around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases. In an interview with Greek Reporter, the Greek American scientist warns...



					usa.greekreporter.com


----------



## cman (Jul 5, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Hong Kong
> 
> The numbers
> 
> ...


Along those same lines, I like the Mongolian example. Little Mongolia had the best response in the world. To date, they've not had a single death.









						COVID Underdogs: Mongolia
					

The best COVID-19 response in the world




					medium.com


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 5, 2020)

cman said:


> Along those same lines, I like the Mongolian example. Little Mongolia had the best response in the world. To date, they've not had a single death.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


But would you really want to live as the Mongolian people do?

The fact that country A handled their response to COVID 19 better than country B has a wide variety of factors that may have influenced the effectiveness of a response that go unrecognized.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 5, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> But would you really want to live as the Mongolian people do?
> 
> The fact that country A handled their response to COVID 19 better than country B has a wide variety of factors that may have influenced the effectiveness of a response that go unrecognized.


Given that yurts are a super trendy thing these days among a certain demographic (like "glamping") , who knows?  

BTW I recommend you all check out the C19 stats for Timbuktu.  They are kicking ass.


----------



## cman (Jul 5, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> But would you really want to live as the Mongolian people do?
> 
> The fact that country A handled their response to COVID 19 better than country B has a wide variety of factors that may have influenced the effectiveness of a response that go unrecognized.



I wouldn't like to live as the Mongolian people do. However, I think we can learn some things from them and other countries with regard to pandemic response. 

I also agree that it's difficult to make a direct comparison between countries for the reasons that you mentioned. That being said, I would never have expected the USA to have one of, if not the worst responses of almost any country on Earth. Our response was abysmal from the start and we've been struggling ever since. There's going to be another one of these down the road, hopefully we're prepared next time.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 5, 2020)

cman said:


> I wouldn't like to live as the Mongolian people do. However, I think we can learn some things from them and other countries with regard to pandemic response.
> 
> I also agree that it's difficult to make a direct comparison between countries for the reasons that you mentioned. That being said, I would never have expected the USA to have one of, if not the worst responses of almost any country on Earth. Our response was abysmal from the start and we've been struggling ever since. There's going to be another one of these down the road, hopefully we're prepared next time.



Fair enough - I agree with you on this.  Just once, I would like to see our country _truly prepared_ for when a health crisis or natural disaster comes our way.  That is what government _should _be but has failed to be in my adult lifetime.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 5, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Given that yurts are a super trendy thing these days among a certain demographic (like "glamping") , who knows?
> 
> BTW I recommend you all check out the C19 stats for Timbuktu.  They are kicking ass.



As long as said yurt is at (or above) 6,000 feet in altitude, I am in!


----------



## davidvel (Jul 5, 2020)

cman said:


> That being said, I would never have expected the USA to have one of, if not the worst responses of almost any country on Earth.


What metric do you base this on? Certainly not death per population rate.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 5, 2020)

At the beginning of the pandemic, planes  did not fly from Wuhan  to any destination in China (including Hong Kong) but the Chinese government allowed them to go to Europe and the US. I am not surprised that China and HK did well with the exception of Wuhan. 


Is anyone surprised Mongolia has done well?


----------



## am1 (Jul 5, 2020)

davidvel said:


> What metric do you base this on? Certainly not death per population rate.


Problem with the USA is even if you lockdown the borders there are still millions moving between states.  I said from the start states or regions based on other criteria should have travel restrictions.  None of this 14 day home quarantine that not everyone would follow.

it does not matter how it started in a country or how it’s going but when it ends, the final numbers and the collateral damage.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 5, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> The modern Western societies have been built on accepting and encouraging different points of view. Now that is changing, you can be eviscerated for even asking questions. You are uninformed, misguided and probably have evil motives. Not only you do not get it, you are a bad person (you choose the wallet vs. lives narrative for example).


Add "science denier", "flat earther", "grandma killer", "conspiracy theorist".


----------



## GrampaTim (Jul 5, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> A huge number of the Texas "spike" is from mass testing and finally reporting results of prisons-where a large majority of the new cases are coming from. That and packing plants are clusters that get counted and suddenly recorded.  As big as Texas is, with as high a prison population it's not surprising really.
> 
> But what the heck is happening in Arizona??


We can speculate about testing numbers all day, but to me, the real key is hospitalizations.  People have to be really sick to be admitted, and even if they survive, the long term physical consequences of the disease are significant.

In Texas many hospitals are now reporting they are going into overload, and using a "rating scale" to determine who can be admitted ( most likely to survive estimate ). The same is happening in Arizona.

The spread has not been stopped, and in most cases it is where there is a disregard for the very simple social distancing guidelines. In Canada, where the guidelines are followed, July 3 showed 21 deaths to over 700 in the US reported that day. Most nations who follow the guidelines have the same results.

As we consider our vacation plans, and where we will travel, our decision is based on facilities that insist on compliance with the federal safe practices guidelines.  We simply won't travel to where they are not enforced.  We'd rather not be a statistic.


----------



## GrampaTim (Jul 5, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I am a bit confused on the bolded point @bluehende but if you mean prisons cases can spill over into the community at large, Arkansas is living proof of this.  Poultry processors, retirement homes and prisons are our largest source of COVID-19 cases in the state.  Once the virus enters a facility, not only does it run through the residents (or inmates) but also the staff carries the virus to the outside world.  I suspect this is the case everywhere.  And as @silentg notes below, *the timing of the protests* was idiotic and needlessly increased an already bad situation.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Protestors were wrong to not wear masks and social distance ( though now most do so ), but that does not legitimize others not doing it.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 5, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I’m going to write whatever I feel is necessary. I’m sorry if you don’t like it, so feel free to block me anytime. I’m glad you appreciated some of my comments, but clearly you don’t see the insults others send my way since you haven’t corrected them. If you’re going to pretend to take the high road, at least try to do so objectively.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I was just trying to share some constructive feedback. I know that there is a lot of back and forth between a few of you so it’s not only you. I definitely appreciate if you keep sharing some of your data and research. This is a comment for everyone not just you. It would also be helpful if folks present the data with an open mind. Everything is changing so quickly that what is true today could be different tomorrow. I am sure I have shared some articles that are no longer relevant today. I try to be open to the fact that I (and anyone else) could be wrong. My beliefs have evolved since March based on new information. I am not going to block you. Your comments do not bother me that much. I have never blocked anyone on Tug actually. If something annoys me, I usually just do not read it. I hope we can still be friends on Tug.


----------



## cman (Jul 5, 2020)

davidvel said:


> What metric do you base this on? Certainly not death per population rate.


The USA is only 4% of the world's population, but accounts for 26% of all C19 cases and 25% of all C19 deaths.

The thing is, our current situation is the result of a series of government blunders in the initial stages of our response that were completely preventable. The first mistake was when the CDC sent out those botched test kits to the state labs. This blunder caused a 6 week delay in testing, and blew any chance we had at containing this thing. Hell by the first of March we had tested a total of 1500 people when South Korea was testing 10,000 per day. Now the state and private labs had the capability to produce their own tests, but the bureaucracy at the FDA wouldn't let them until it was too late. 

The blunders mentioned above are just some of the reasons I find our response to C19 unacceptable. I could understand if it were an issue of funding or resources. That's not the case here, this was a lack of competence.


----------



## Clifbell (Jul 5, 2020)

I've completely adjusted my use of Timeshares as a result of Covid.  And with the cases rising, it is even more important.  I am in the process of downsizing to a cottage as part of an investment property.  This lowers my cost to about $600/month mortgage in Arizona.  I was originally planning on staying year round in Timeshares and air b'n'b's.  The fact that Timeshares closed has had me change my complete approach.  I now have downsized and will only start traveling in August.  I will carry all my own disinfectant cleaning supplies and will not have anyone "clean" my unit.  I have plenty of hand sanitizer (it is finally back in stores), masks, and gloves.  I am now going to mostly out of the way timeshares like Worldmark Marina Dunes or Arizona Pinetop.  But in between, I am going to stay in my little cottage that has a pool and a large park next to it.  Th rise in infection rate is an added complication, but something that was expected (but I am shocked at how much it has spiked).  I have see so many people in Arizona without masks and going to bars (If I need a drink, I drink at home).

I created a short video that is a summary of the post above.  It can be found at


----------



## cman (Jul 5, 2020)

Interesting TED Talk from Bill Gates. He gave this talk 5 years ago and it's an accurate description of our current situation. I like the fact that he outlines useful solutions. Skip to 04:14 if you're in a hurry.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 5, 2020)

new deaths today:


----------



## Cornell (Jul 5, 2020)

Adding to @DannyTS table above, today is the fewest C19 deaths reported since 3/23.  Yes, it's a Sunday of a holiday weekend, so the count may have an uptick tomorrow b/c of reporting lags.  But nonetheless, we continue on a downward trend with that metric.

Based on the CDC's definition of "epidemic", the CDC very well might need to call this epidemic over for the time being.


----------



## Brett (Jul 5, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Adding to @DannyTS table above, today is the fewest C19 deaths reported since 3/23.  Yes, it's a Sunday of a holiday weekend, so the count may have an uptick tomorrow b/c of reporting lags.  But nonetheless, we continue on a downward trend with that metric.
> 
> Based on the CDC's definition of "epidemic", the CDC very well might need to call this epidemic over for the time being.




That's wonderful news.
Now that the pandemic is over we don't have to wear silly masks and social distance.


I'm starting to feel so much better


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 5, 2020)

GrampaTim said:


> Protestors were wrong to not wear masks and social distance ( though now most do so ), but that does not legitimize others not doing it.


....and in other news, staying home continues to be the best prevention and yet........


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 5, 2020)

GrampaTim said:


> Protestors were wrong to not wear masks and social distance ( though now most do so ), but that does not legitimize others not doing it.



FWIW: 

*Why Are So Many N.Y.P.D. Officers Refusing to Wear Masks at Protests?*








						Why Are So Many N.Y.P.D. Officers Refusing to Wear Masks at Protests? (Published 2020)
					

Though the city is recording hundreds of new coronavirus cases each week and some officers have died, many are not heeding instructions to cover their faces.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 5, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I was just trying to share some constructive feedback. I know that there is a lot of back and forth between a few of you so it’s not only you. I definitely appreciate if you keep sharing some of your data and research. This is a comment for everyone not just you. It would also be helpful if folks present the data with an open mind. Everything is changing so quickly that what is true today could be different tomorrow. I am sure I have shared some articles that are no longer relevant today. I try to be open to the fact that I (and anyone else) could be wrong. My beliefs have evolved since March based on new information. I am not going to block you. Your comments do not bother me that much. I have never blocked anyone on Tug actually. If something annoys me, I usually just do not read it. I hope we can still be friends on Tug.



I appreciate that. I would suggest that part of the issue here is that when I (and others) post comments with links and quotes it's not uncommon for others to respond to the manner in which the post was made and not the facts. Like the one which prompted your comment. You were obviously upset about the manner of my post, and did not comment at all about the post itself. Why can't you (and others) focus on the issue and not the tone of the post?


----------



## cman (Jul 5, 2020)

Cornell said:


> BTW I recommend you all check out the C19 stats for Timbuktu.  They are kicking ass.


Sadly, you could throw a dart at a world map and chances are, any country it landed on would have a better response than ours. Canada is looking like a good place for a short vacation but they won't let us in. Tried to get into Timbuktu, but they're not taking Americans either. Guess Mexico is our only option for now.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 5, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Based on the CDC's definition of "epidemic", the CDC very well might need to call this epidemic over for the time being.



Are you sure?





__





						Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 1 - Section 11
					

Principles of Epidemiology in Public Health Practice, Third Edition An Introduction to Applied Epidemiology and Biostatistics Lesson 1 Section 11




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Luanne (Jul 5, 2020)

cman said:


> Guess Mexico is our only option for now.


Check again.  Mexico closed their border to the U.S. in at least one location.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 5, 2020)

cman said:


> Sadly, you could throw a dart at a world map and chances are, any country it landed on would have a better response than ours.


Wherever you throw a dart on a world map, chances are you are going to hit water. If you do not hit water, you are probably going to hit a country that is testing little to nothing.


----------



## cman (Jul 5, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Adding to @DannyTS table above, today is the fewest C19 deaths reported since 3/23.  Yes, it's a Sunday of a holiday weekend, so the count may have an uptick tomorrow b/c of reporting lags.  But nonetheless, we continue on a downward trend with that metric.
> 
> Based on the CDC's definition of "epidemic", the CDC very well might need to call this epidemic over for the time being.
> 
> View attachment 23041


That's funny. So, we're just going to cancel the pandemic? Guess we can


DannyTS said:


> Wherever you throw a dart on a world map, chances are you are going to hit water. If you do not hit water, you are probably going to hit a country that is testing little to nothing.


Yep. And that country will most likely have a better response than ours.


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## TravelTime (Jul 5, 2020)

I think the point might be that reported cases are rising but reported deaths are going down. @Cornell and @DannyTS is that correct?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 5, 2020)

*Low-Income American Households Suffer Inflation Shock From Virus*









						Low-Income American Households Suffer Inflation Shock From Virus
					

The coronavirus is inflicting a price shock on low income Americans that risks further driving up inequality.In a study released this week, Bloomberg Economics estimated higher grocery and housing costs for lockdown necessities meant those households whose incomes are in the bottom 10% currently...




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 5, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I think the point might be that reported cases are rising but reported deaths are going down. @Cornell and @DannyTS is that correct?


...and add to that - testing rates are increasing.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 5, 2020)

cman said:


> The first mistake was when the CDC sent out those botched test kits to the state labs.


If one wants to Monday Morning Quarterback the worldwide Covid-19 response, the "first mistake" was by the Chinese not informing the world of the new disease and instead suppressing the information received from their own doctors and scientists to avoid worldwide embarrassment as the likely source.  That was before 2020 began.

The "second mistake" was the delay in the World Health Organization declaring Covid-19 a pandemic until a month after the disease had been named.  Many conspiracy theories, but maybe the simplest explanation is the most reasonable (from Google, for those who want citations):

*"When is the last time the WHO declared a pandemic?
The last time the WHO declared a pandemic was during the 2009 H1N1 swine flu, and it triggered aggressive actions, such as millions in spending to buy vaccines. But H1N1 turned out not to be as deadly and disruptive as feared, and a lot of governments were frustrated about buying vaccines that they ended up not using and harshly criticized the WHO for its declaration. Burned by that response, the WHO got rid of the six-stage procedure that led up to it declaring an influenza pandemic."*

And for those who think the US was late to the game, there is this (from Google):

*"Common question*
*When was the coronavirus disease declared a pandemic?
On March 11, 2020 the Novel Coronavirus Disease, COVID-19, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. On March 13, 2020 a national emergency was declared in the United States concerning the COVID-19 Outbreak."*

By March, 2020, it was way too late to "contain" Covid-19 (which some public policy makers in the US still seem to believe with their "quarantines" -- poor medical policy, but good politics).  

Yes, "mistakes were made" and they should have been learning opportunities.  "Flattening the curve," was supposed to take 14 days back in March, 3 Months later the shutdown has simply taken us back to near Square One with 94% of the US population vulnerable to Covid-19 and the exact same question, "Shutdown (again, which failed to "contain" the virus) until there is a vaccine, or re-open with informed, sensible precautions and follow the path that was inevitable from the beginning, and that Sweden selected from the beginning?

"Killing the virus" ain't going to happen in the next few years, if ever.  Each county, each state, each nation will need to learn how to live with the virus while minimizing the undeniable damage and casualties.  Some will do better than others.  Politicians will play politics.

For those who like links and citations, here is one for some mindfulness going forward (and why I am continuing on with my vacations this summer with zero fear) and living life in general.  (And why I have completely tuned-out the hyper video media, which is the model Absurd).









						Panic and Pandemics: The Return of the Absurd
					

We often push thoughts of death far out of our awareness, but at the present time they unavoidably re-emerge. Can we learn something helpful from this?



					www.psychiatrictimes.com
				




*"One message is for us to never forget the fragility and brevity of life. Another message, more subtle but equally important, is that we have a duty to do our best to calm and sublimate our death fears. Recognizing this duty now seems to be an important task-one that we cannot allow ourselves to continue repressing.

Camus would likely have endorsed this approach, as his solution to the Absurd was to fully accept it – while continuing to live on – thereby achieving a transcendent form of freedom and personal meaning."*


----------



## cman (Jul 5, 2020)

delete


----------



## CO skier (Jul 6, 2020)

cman said:


> Every country got the memo at the same time. Those that acted proactively are in a better position than we are.


You need to check some facts:

Spain, Italy, USA, France shutdown at the same time mid-March.  Sweden instituted sensible precautions and did not shut down school and business.

I would rather be riding out Covid-19 in the USA (or Sweden) than many European countries that shutdown at the same time as the USA.  It is inevitable that re-opening will send any country that shutdown its society in the direction of Sweden when it re-opens.  The Keystone Cops approach of the US just increased the angst, and the ongoing and new "quarantines" just show how little the Keystone Cops have learned in the last couple of months.

Current death rate per 100,000:

*Cases and mortality by country*

COUNTRYCONFIRMEDDEATHSCASE-FATALITYDEATHS/100K POP.San Marino698426.0%124.32Belgium61,8389,77115.8%85.54Andorra855526.1%67.53United Kingdom286,41244,28315.5%66.60Spain250,54528,38511.3%60.75Italy241,41934,85414.4%57.68Sweden71,4195,4207.6%53.23France204,22229,89614.6%44.63US2,839,436129,6764.6%39.64Ireland25,5091,7416.8%35.87Netherlands50,5486,13212.1%35.59Chile291,8476,1922.1%33.06Peru299,08010,4123.5%32.55Brazil1,577,00464,2654.1%30.68Ecuador61,5354,7697.8%27.91Mexico252,16530,36612.0%24.06Canada107,1858,7328.1%23.56Switzerland32,1981,9656.1%23.07


----------



## CO skier (Jul 6, 2020)

cman said:


> delete


Factual progress.  That deserves respect.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I think the point might be that reported cases are rising but reported deaths are going down. @Cornell and @DannyTS is that correct?


Correct.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 6, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> ...and add to that - testing rates are increasing.


Without randomized testing, that does not necessarily mean much, especially since the contract tracers are now working in many cities so more people are tested and have been in contact with Covid.


----------



## jme (Jul 6, 2020)

*Anti-police demonstrations helped drive coronavirus spike, some cities now acknowledge*

Of course it did, not really news, but confirmation of what common sense told us already.
And the Grand Reopening of Florida (and other locations) has caused even more of a spike.
Whether mostly young people or not, it will still affect others outside the "young" group. 


*Governors stress 'personal responsibility'...

Virus floats in air as aerosol...

Broadway Star Dead at 41 After Long Battle...

Hospitals Sound Alarm...*


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 6, 2020)




----------



## jme (Jul 6, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> View attachment 23073




I suspect the graph will change a bit over the coming weeks. July 4th weekend seemed to be a worrisome unknown, so we'll see. 
Please be sure to post a new graph in, say, a month.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 6, 2020)

jme said:


> I suspect the graph will change a bit over the coming weeks. July 4th weekend seemed to be a worrisome unknown, so we'll see.
> Please be sure to post a new graph in, say, a month.


Didn't some also suspect that the end of the lock downs would bring a disaster of epic proportions? I just do not see it in the graph above.


----------



## klpca (Jul 6, 2020)

Pretty much everything is open (some exceptions for sure) so I am curious what folks are still arguing about. From the outside looking in, it appears to be the covid is no big deal camp vs I am going to die from this thing camp. Or are we down to arguing about "being right"? 

Right now we can't travel outside of our country. I am not, nor have I ever been worried about dying although I am concerned for the most vulnerable in our society. But continuing to constantly argue about the various covid rates does not seem to accomplish anything. Just think of the lives _and costs_ saved if we kept people healthy and out of the hospital. This should be the goal of our citizens. If people would just wear a mask (that costs $5!) we could accomplish that goal. Sometimes I think that folks just want to hold out for a vaccine (which will cost billions to develop), when the cheap mask would carry us a long way towards the goal. At any rate, I want to get back to our old lives asap. Especially here on TUG, I would love to talk travel again.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 6, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Without randomized testing, that does not necessarily mean much, especially since the contract tracers are now working in many cities so more people are tested and have been in contact with Covid.



The point I was suggesting is more testing will reveal more cases since our testing levels have still been far too small and too scattershot (which is why I have been hesitant to put much faith in the conclusions with respect to COVID-19 to date).

*We need to test more* in order to improve the confidence level in the testing we are doing.  Testing more people _*should produce*_ more accurate data.

BUT

I want to emphasize that last point in a slightly different way. 
Something that either has not been publicized (and perhaps because it has not been universally tracked) is how many unique individuals have been tested (on any level).  
For example, Arkansas has approximately 3 million citizens. 
A recent look at the COVID-19 dashboard for Arkansas indicates approx 345K tests have been run to date. 
Some will take this to mean that Arkansas has tested about 11.5% of its population. 
_*But this assumes no individual was tested more than once.  That likely is NOT true. *_
So what is the actual percentage of our population that has been tested once?  

Again, this illustrates the weakness in our data collection methods throughout the country.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

@DannyTS ”...2 more weeks”


----------



## Brett (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @DannyTS ”...2 more weeks”




Just two more weeks and this pandemic stuff will be over
Everybody can relax

_Whew !









https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/07/05/coronavirus-cases-in-florida-tops-200000/_


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 6, 2020)

CO skier said:


> If one wants to Monday Morning Quarterback the worldwide Covid-19 response, the "first mistake" was by the Chinese not informing the world of the new disease and instead suppressing the information received from their own doctors and scientists to avoid worldwide embarrassment as the likely source.  That was before 2020 began.
> 
> The "second mistake" was the delay in the World Health Organization declaring Covid-19 a pandemic until a month after the disease had been named.  Many conspiracy theories, but maybe the simplest explanation is the most reasonable (from Google, for those who want citations):
> 
> ...



Another thing it to look at such data, as contradictory and unsatisfactory as it is, that suggest courses to mitigate the severity and/or duration of the disease.

(And check your politics at the door!)

An example. There is data (Indonesia retrospective data) that imply that if one has a high Vitamin D3 titre at the time of hospitalization, the odd of dying drop dramatically.

Causitive or merely a correlation? <Shrug> Would it hurt you to treat it as causitive? No. Is there a major push for taking Vitamin D3? NO.

Why not? The usual suspects. . .


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 6, 2020)

Brett said:


> Just two more weeks and this pandemic stuff will be over
> Everybody can relax
> 
> _Whew !
> ...


Why do I sense a bit of sarcasm Brett?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 6, 2020)

Brett said:


> Just two more weeks and this pandemic stuff will be over
> Everybody can relax
> 
> _Whew !
> ...




@Cornell I know, two more weeks! I guess we all remember the headlines in May


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

norway









						Norway COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Norway Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




Schools reopened apr 20  7 day average of deaths   1 or 0 in the last week us equivalent of 35

Italy









						Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				





economy started reopening in early may
7 day average of 17 deaths a day   US equivalent  85

Us average  511 with a three day holiday included in it


----------



## jme (Jul 6, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Didn't some also suspect that the end of the lock downs would bring a disaster of epic proportions?
> *I just do not see it in the graph above.*



It's because the graph stops on July 4th. You're seeing trends, and granted, viruses in the past have followed trends as they progress,
but occasionally trends don't work out. So it's yet unknown in my book. Too many variables, including human behavior of late.
At the moment (and especially July 4th weekend, here and abroad, like London) the world is going insane 
with "no fear & no personal responsibility", and that WILL have a definite effect on that graph. 

There's been a lot of speculation and conjecture about what comes next, but no one I know can see the future.
I'm happy that you feel like you "see it", but neither you nor I know what's next.
Again, show me the new graph in a month to see if your prognostication comes true.


----------



## Sapper (Jul 6, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> An example. There is data (Indonesia retrospective data) that imply that if one has a high Vitamin D3 titre at the time of hospitalization, the odd of dying drop dramatically.
> 
> Causitive or merely a correlation? <Shrug> Would it hurt you to treat it as causitive? No. Is there a major push for taking Vitamin D3? NO.



My wife works in the medical field and one of the hats I wear at work is a systems analyst. Early on in all this (March), we (and everyone else) were looking for some kind of common trait that might connect a diverse group who have negative outcomes. It is easy to say the elderly, folks with specific chronic diseases (diabetes, high BP, etc), obese, etc. However, not all people in these categories become ill. Why?  One of the commonalities is a low vitamin D count. Our body makes it naturally, but as we age, we make less of it. We also tend to spend less time out in the sun as we get older. Folks with the specific chronic diseases tend to have low absorption rates, or take meds that state to stay out of the sun. Could it be low vitamin D count leads to a higher rate of negative outcomes?  My wife ran it by a few docs at her work in casual conversation as they were doing rounds. The result, we all take a vitamin D3 supplement now and spend more time out doors. A vitamin D supplement and spending more time outside has a low cost to benefit ratio, and the fact is it’s a good thing to do even if there were no COVID concerns. 

Though I have not seen the data you mention, it’s nice to hear there is now corroborating data.


----------



## Brett (Jul 6, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> @Cornell I know, two more weeks! I guess we all remember the headlines in May




yes, just two more weeks and everything will be back to normal

hang in there - stay healthy - _*the wait is almost over*_


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 6, 2020)

All right @Brett - how do you know there are more cases out there today as opposed to more cases being found due to increased testing?

Again, this goes back to the need for more testing....


----------



## amycurl (Jul 6, 2020)

When I inexplicably broke my hip about two and a half years ago, the *only* systemic issue they could find (and, trust me, they went full House on me trying to find something,) was low Vitamin D. (Granted, it was late December, and, no, I wasn't spending much time outdoors then.) While that didn't explain the hip at all (because my bone density was good, so it wasn't affecting calcium absorbtion,) it does mean that I've been taking mega-doses of Vitamin D for the past two and a half years (because no one's told me to stop, LOL!) I am keeping my fingers crossed that it has some other, anti-viral effects, too. We'll see.... *remains cautiously optimistic and am not, in any way, tempting the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing*


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 6, 2020)

amycurl said:


> When I inexplicably broke my hip about two and a half years ago, the *only* systemic issue they could find (and, trust me, they went full House on me trying to find something,) was low Vitamin D. (Granted, it was late December, and, no, I wasn't spending much time outdoors then.) While that didn't explain the hip at all (because my bone density was good, so it wasn't affecting calcium absorbtion,) it does mean that I've been taking mega-doses of Vitamin D for the past two and a half years (because no one's told me to stop, LOL!) I am keeping my fingers crossed that it has some other, anti-viral effects, too. We'll see.... *remains cautiously optimistic and am not, in any way, tempting the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing*


----------



## amycurl (Jul 6, 2020)

To really look at spread, look at the percentage of tests that come back positive. If you have low spread, and high testing, the percentage will come back pretty low, right? 

Arizona's testing is coming back 25% positive. That's a terrifyingly high percentage. And that kind of high percentage is closely corelated to the rise in hospitalizations that are quickly overwhelming the health care system there. 

To get off of the quarantine lists for some states, other states need to move below 10% positive testing. Many states in the South and West are well above this threshold. I think NY state is reviewing the list of other states' positivity rates every two weeks.


----------



## Brett (Jul 6, 2020)

If people would stop getting COVID tests everything would be  OK

“If you don’t test, you don’t have any cases"

  (just kidding  )

July 6, 2020





The intensive care units (ICU) at four hospitals in the Tampa area were at maximum capacity over the weekend as the number of coronavirus cases in Florida continue to spike.

Other hospitals were nearing capacity.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/505959-four-tampa-area-hospitals-at-maximum-icu-capacity


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 6, 2020)

Brett said:


> If people would stop getting COVID tests everything would be  OK
> 
> “If you don’t test, you don’t have any cases"
> 
> ...


From the article, can you please point out to the section  where it says that the additional patients are there because of C19? I do not see it.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 6, 2020)

Sapper said:


> My wife works in the medical field and one of the hats I wear at work is a systems analyst. Early on in all this (March), we (and everyone else) were looking for some kind of common trait that might connect a diverse group who have negative outcomes. It is easy to say the elderly, folks with specific chronic diseases (diabetes, high BP, etc), obese, etc. However, not all people in these categories become ill. Why?  One of the commonalities is a low vitamin D count. Our body makes it naturally, but as we age, we make less of it. We also tend to spend less time out in the sun as we get older. Folks with the specific chronic diseases tend to have low absorption rates, or take meds that state to stay out of the sun. Could it be low vitamin D count leads to a higher rate of negative outcomes?  My wife ran it by a few docs at her work in casual conversation as they were doing rounds. The result, we all take a vitamin D3 supplement now and spend more time out doors. A vitamin D supplement and spending more time outside has a low cost to benefit ratio, and the fact is it’s a good thing to do even if there were no COVID concerns.
> 
> Though I have not seen the data you mention, it’s nice to hear there is now corroborating data.



Here's some papers to read.

Overview: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/vitamin-d-covid-19/

Detail Europe: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-020-01570-8

Detail Indonesia Study:  https://emerginnova.com/patterns-of-covid19-mortality-and-vitamin-d-an-indonesian-study/

Video on Vitamin D research (non-COVID) BY UCSD (which holds an investigative drug research license with the FDA). Included because of the multiyear dose toxicity research.
https://ucsd.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=29079


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> All right @Brett - how do you know there are more cases out there today as opposed to more cases being found due to increased testing?









this is the hospitalizations due to covid in tx over time.   Sorry the screen shot did not bring the axes.  It is from the Texas DOH if you want to view the whole thing.   In the last 3 weeks the number have gone up about 4x.  If there are no new cases then this virus has become 4 times more severe while the average age infected has gone down.  I certainly hope not.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

bluehende said:


> View attachment 23083
> 
> this is the hospitalizations due to covid in tx over time.   Sorry the screen shot did not bring the axes.  It is from the Texas DOH if you want to view the whole thing.   In the last 3 weeks the number have gone up about 4x.  If there are no new cases then this virus has become 4 times more severe while the average age infected has gone down.  I certainly hope not.


define "severe" in this context


----------



## Yellowfin (Jul 6, 2020)

bluehende said:


> View attachment 23083
> 
> this is the hospitalizations due to covid in tx over time.   Sorry the screen shot did not bring the axes.  It is from the Texas DOH if you want to view the whole thing.   In the last 3 weeks the number have gone up about 4x.  If there are no new cases then this virus has become 4 times more severe while the average age infected has gone down.  I certainly hope not.


source please


----------



## Luanne (Jul 6, 2020)

Yellowfin said:


> source please


He cited the source.  It's the Texas DOH.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

Source:  https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> define "severe" in this context


Pretty obvious     hospitalization


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Pretty obvious     hospitalization


actually, not obvious.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 6, 2020)

No matter how you look at the numbers, more is not good. We likely had significantly more cases than were counted (as I and others postulated on TUG back in March). It seems silly to me to even discuss the question if there are more than we are counting...of course there are! 

15 states broke single-day coronavirus records this week



> "Right now, if you look at the number of cases, it's quite disturbing. We're setting records, practically every day, of new cases in the numbers that are reported. That clearly is not the right direction," NIAID director Anthony Fauci told medical journal JAMA on Thursday.











						23 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week — Axios
					

23 states set new highs last week for coronavirus infections recorded in a single day, according to the COVID Tracking Project (CTP) and state health departments. 15 states surpassed records from the previous week.




					apple.news
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> View attachment 23084
> 
> View attachment 23085
> 
> ...


Better make your reservation quick....they are filling up fast.

Of course now you are changing the argument.  I still stand by my statement.  If the cases ar

e the same with a 4x increase in hospitalizations we have a problem.  How do you explain that 4 times as many people are hospitalized now than a few weeks ago due to covid.  And be honest and determine how long those extra beds will last at the current trend in cases and hospitalizations.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> actually, not obvious.


It seems a bit speculative on his/her part to suggest that the virus istelf has become 4x more severe. Perhaps, due to age or geographical area, more individuals have chosen to visit a hospital.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> actually, not obvious.


Focus on a word as usual.  But no response to the fact that hospitalizations have gone up 4 fold in a few weeks.    Use whatever word you choose to define a 4 fold increase in people in the hospital.  

You posted the fl tables a few days ago.  Look at them again and you will see this pattern also exists in FL.
'


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Focus on a word as usual.  But no response to the fact that hospitalizations have gone up 4 fold in a few weeks.    Use whatever word you choose to define a 4 fold increase in people in the hospital.
> 
> You posted the fl tables a few days ago.  Look at them again and you will see this pattern also exists in FL.
> '


Will do, sir.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> It seems a bit speculative on his/her part to suggest that the virus istelf has become 4x more severe. Perhaps, due to age or geographical area, more individuals have chosen to visit a hospital.


Please read the post I replied to.  That was in response to someone asking how we know there are more cases.  My post shows that if cases are not going up (not true) then the disease has somehow managed to get 4x as many people in the hospital.  We all know that is not true.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 6, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Please read the post I replied to.  That was in response to someone asking how we know there are more cases.  My post shows that if cases are not going up (not true) then the disease has somehow managed to get 4x as many people in the hospital.  We all know that is not true.



That is true however, there's no evidence that the virus itself, which you noted has in and of itself, become "4x severe". I've seen no evidence that the virus has mutated to 4x it's original strength.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 6, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Please read the post I replied to.  That was in response to someone asking how we know there are more cases.  My post shows that if cases are not going up (not true) then the disease has somehow managed to get 4x as many people in the hospital.  We all know that is not true.


For a few weeks people were afraid to go to the hospital and a lot of treatments have been postponed. Many hospitals were empty waiting for Covid patients that did not arrive. 
While it is possible that the new hospitalizations are related to Covid, it is also possible things are just going back closer to normal and people are seeking the treatments they need. From the information provided it is impossible to tell.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 6, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> That is true however, there's no evidence that the virus itself, which you noted has in and of itself, become "4x severe". I've seen no evidence that the virus has mutated to 4x it's original strength.



How do you define "strength"? 

There is some evidence to support that it has become more infectious.

*New, more infectious strain of COVID-19 now dominates global cases of virus: study*








						New, more infectious strain of COVID-19 now dominates global cases of virus: study
					

Researchers have shown that a variation in the viral genome of COVID-19 improved its ability to infect human cells and helped it become the dominant strain circulating around the world today.




					medicalxpress.com


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> That is true however, there's no evidence that the virus itself, which you noted has in and of itself, become "4x severe". I've seen no evidence that the virus has mutated to 4x it's original strength.


There is none.  The european mutation has been shown to spread easier with actual evidence it is not more severe.  There is no evidence either way if it is actually less severe.  The early studies were very focused on seeing whether it was more severe as early data out of europe looked worse than china.


----------



## Brett (Jul 6, 2020)

*Wall Street Journal

July 6, 2020*






https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-...ght-drop-in-cases-for-july-fourth-11593954831


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

Yellowfin said:


> source please


Well as stated in the post you quoted....the Texas Department of Health.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 6, 2020)

In regards to interpretation of the numbers, could it be that we are (all) confused by what the numbers actually indicate? A friend told me about the Simpson's Paradox and how it may apply to C19 numbers, and sent me a post by a doctor which basically said (I'm paraphrasing the posts below):

In essence the USA is experiencing:
- increasing total positive cases
- increasing hospitalizations
- increasing deaths

For a time it appeared that hospitalizations were decreasing and total positive cases were flat. It would be reasonable to assume that means "young people are getting it now, not old people?", or "we've become better at treating it, so the death rate has fallen", or "we're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases". There is some truth to these conclusions since more young people getting it (for now), we have become a bit better at treating it, and we are testing more and finding more cases. But none of these conclusions explain the effect.

The C19 outbreak is not one outbreak spread evenly across the US; it is many outbreaks spread unevenly. We need to look at state and county data to understand the spread. As an example, look at AZ and TX where cases and deaths have been increasing for weeks. FL is similar (but their data is incomplete...on purpose, thank you FL). Look just at Miami and Houston, and it's worse.

This is where Simpson's paradox comes into play. "If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results". This doctor continues to say that in the coming weeks it will be horrible, as dozens of areas go through what happened in NYC earlier this year. ICUs will exceed capacity, ventilators rationed, and too many deaths.

A short (4.5 min) video on Simpson's paradox can be found at 




For just one example, let's look at Phoenix.

Phoenix, AZ (Maricopa County)




__





						Dashboard - Main Dashboard
					

Dundas BI made by Dundas Data Visualization




					phdata.maricopa.gov
				




Positive Cases
(there is an eight day reporting delay)





Hospitalizations (21 day reporting delay, so the numbers are "likely to increase")





Deaths


----------



## jme (Jul 6, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> That is true however, there's no evidence that the virus itself, which you noted has in and of itself, become "4x severe".
> *I've seen no evidence that the virus has mutated to 4x it's original strength.*




Bluehende did not say that the virus' strength was "4x more severe" as you misquoted.

There's a huge difference in being more severe and being more contagious, which is a fact.
For some reason its transmissibility is far greater now. And in fact, it's not 4X, but 10X more contagious, according to at least one report.
That explains the extremely high number number of new cases, BUT at the same time we've learned from some scientific sources
that it might be less virulent, hence the lower death rates. It makes sense.









						Mutated COVID-19 Viral Strain in U.S. and Europe 10 Times More Contagious than Original Strain | BioSpace
					

Researchers have found that the strains spreading so quickly in Europe and the U.S. have a mutated S “spike” protein that makes it about 10 times more infectious than the strain that originally was identified in Asia.




					www.biospace.com
				












						Evidence growing that Houston's main coronavirus strain is more contagious than original
					

Evidence is growing that a mutated coronavirus strain, the main one circulating in the...




					www.houstonchronicle.com
				











						What we know about mutated coronavirus strain in Houston
					

Should the public be worried? One doctor says more research still has to be done, but it's important for the community to stay informed.




					abc13.com
				






			https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/06/29/coronavirus-mutation-science/?arc404=true
		










						Mutated European strain of coronavirus more contagious but less potent
					

The coronavirus pandemic is far from over as it actively spreads across the globe. The infection toll has reached a staggering 10.84 million people since it emerged in late December 2019 in Wuhan City, China. The virus that has left the city has now spread to 188 countries and territories and...




					www.news-medical.net


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Simpson's Paradox


Same as "Yule-Simpson" Effect


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Same as "Yule-Simpson" Effect



Yes. 

Do you have any response to the post itself?


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yes.
> 
> Do you have any response to the post itself?


I have a few, but at this point keeping my thoughts to myself b/c of the man-splaining that goes on in this thread.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I have a few, but at this point keeping my thoughts to myself b/c of the man-splaining that goes on in this thread.



I certainly respect that you wish to keep your thoughts to yourself, but if you won't participate then do us the courtesy of not criticizing others, either. That includes insulting us by declaring our posts are "man-splaining" when we are simply trying to help educate our fellow TUG members.


----------



## Brett (Jul 6, 2020)

July 6  2020

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-06/california-coronavirus-outlook-worsens


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I certainly respect that you wish to keep your thoughts to yourself, but if you won't participate then do us the courtesy of not criticizing others, either. That includes insulting us by declaring our posts are "man-splaining" when we are simply trying to help educate our fellow TUG members.


will do.


----------



## jme (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I have a few, but at this point keeping my thoughts to myself b/c of the *man-splaining* that goes on in this thread.



I find that phenomenon to be quite necessary at times.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 6, 2020)

jme said:


> Bluehende did not say that the virus' strength was "4x more severe" as you misquoted.
> 
> There's a huge difference in being more severe and being more contagious, which is a fact.
> For some reason its transmissibility is far greater now. And in fact, it's not 4X, but 10X more contagious, according to at least one report.
> ...




I suppose I'll stand by my interpretation of "... _*then this virus has become 4 times more severe*_ ..." and you're free to stand by yours.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

jme said:


> I find that phenomenon to be quite necessary at times.


Yes, I've seen you demonstrate it often.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I have a few, but at this point keeping my thoughts to myself b/c of the man-splaining that goes on in this thread.


I am sure that this is aimed at me.  I respectfully ask you to reread my original post and your reply.  It certainly looked to me that you were being dismissive of the actual data and the post was intended more to annoy than elaborate.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 6, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I am sure that this is aimed at me.  I respectfully ask you to reread my original post and your reply.  It certainly looked to me that you were being dismissive of the actual data and the post was intended more to annoy than elaborate.


Actually I wasn't.  Aimed for a few people here.  There is an undercurrent of condescension in so many of the comments.  It makes having a thoughtful conversation almost impossible.

Look @ comment #56 "What planet are you from"?  That's one of several examples I could point out.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 6, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Actually I wasn't.  Aimed for a few people here.  There is an undercurrent of condescension in so many of the comments.  It makes having a thoughtful conversation almost impossible.
> 
> Look @ comment #56 "What planet are you from"?  That's one of several examples I could point out.



In all fairness, this applies to most of the frequent posters here, including you.

ETA: I note that you laughed at this post. Seems you can dish it out but don't like it when it bounces back, eh?


----------



## Passepartout (Jul 6, 2020)

Dr. Fauci said today that with the rapid increase of cases in Arizona, Texas, and Arizona, the average age of those testing positive has dropped by 20 years.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 6, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Dr. Fauci said today that with the rapid increase of cases in Arizona, Texas, and Arizona, the average age of those testing positive has dropped by 20 years.


This is really good news


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 6, 2020)

Cognative dissonance.

If the average age dropped by 20 years, but the number of severe cases (hospitalizations) are sharply rising; that implies that young people are not a "immune" as they are touted to be. . . .

This is a good thing?


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 6, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Dr. Fauci said today that with the rapid increase of cases in Arizona, Texas, and Arizona, the average age of those testing positive has dropped by 20 years.



He also said:



> "We are still knee-deep in the first wave of this. And I would say, this would not be considered a wave. It was a surge, or a resurgence of infections superimposed upon a baseline," Fauci said in Facebook Live interview with National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins.



And 



> He specifically expressed dismay over people congregating in crowds and not wearing masks and inadequate attention being paid to guidelines on reopening.
> 
> "We're going to continue to be in a lot of trouble," he said. "And there's going to be a lot of hurt if that does not stop."




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## davidvel (Jul 6, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Cognative dissonance.
> 
> If the average age dropped by 20 years, but the number of severe cases (hospitalizations) are sharply rising; that implies that young people are not a "immune" as they are touted to be. . . .


Without knowing the age of those cases, this claim/logic is unsupported.  If the average age of "severe cases (hospitalizations)" is dropping proportionately, then this would be true.  I'd be interested in seeing such comparisons in a chart.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 6, 2020)

A friend just sent me this video, which I think others may appreciate here. It’s shows why masks work, and does so with various scientific experiments. If you’re at all concerned about masks, please watch it, and if appropriate send to your family and friends.







Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Brett (Jul 6, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> He also said:
> 
> And
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



probably some people are hoping Dr. Fauci will say    - "stop the testing"  !


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 6, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Without knowing the age of those cases, this claim/logic is unsupported.  If the average age of "severe cases (hospitalizations)" is dropping proportionately, then this would be true.  I'd be interested in seeing such comparisons in a chart.



Still cognitive dissonance. Consider:

If admission went up 4X, and the previous admissions were mainly older people, and the percentages among all age groups remained the same; then the average age would have remained the same.

But the average age has dropped by 15-20 years.  Assuming that these are positive testing case, and not hospitalized cases (the most optimistic scenario), then that means that a vastly high percent of younger people have become COVID-19 positive. Even if (the most optimistic case) they get no sicker, on average, than in the past, they will still form a big bulge in hospitalized cases, simply because of the large number of positive cases in the younger demographic, as compared to the past.

To me, this is basic math. . .


----------



## davidvel (Jul 6, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Still cognitive dissonance. Consider:
> 
> If admission went up 4X, and the previous admissions were mainly older people, and the percentages among all age groups remained the same; then the average age would have remained the same.
> 
> ...


It may be math, but I haven't seen any facts supporting your assertions that:

- admissions are up 4x
-the percentages (of hospitalizations) among all age groups remained the same

And there would be no big bulge, if they are still at extremely low (<.001) hospitalization rates.

As for your continued personal comments, using the term cognitive dissonance, you should learn what terms mean before you use them to try to attack people. My beliefs and values are pretty consistent, Sir.


----------



## PigsDad (Jul 6, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Without knowing the age of those cases, this claim/logic is unsupported.  If the average age of "severe cases (hospitalizations)" is dropping proportionately, then this would be true.  I'd be interested in seeing such comparisons in a chart.


Yes, it would be interesting to see the comparisons.  Another factor that might be in play and make it harder for a simple comparison is if people are more likely to be admitted now vs. a couple months ago.  There have been a couple of articles I have seen go by that stated earlier in the pandemic, doctors were instructing those that didn't have severe symptoms to stay home and be monitored there.  Now, they stated doctors are a little more likely to advise their patients to be admitted to the hospital, since they now know better what early treatments may help their patients.  We are also seeing the length of hospital stay shorten slightly, which would make sense if people with slightly less severe cases are being admitted.

Kurt


----------



## bluehende (Jul 7, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It may be math, but I haven't seen any facts supporting your assertions that:
> 
> - admissions are up 4x
> -the percentages (of hospitalizations) among all age groups remained the same
> ...


In post 489 I posted data directly from the Texas Department of Health showing an increase of 4x in hospitalizations over the last 3 weeks.

As for your second bullet there are no numbers that show how and if the demographics of the new hospitalizations have changed.  The assumption probably comes from Governor Abbott talking about the increase in cases  is due to younger people testing positive.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 7, 2020)

Ten out of the 12 hospitals in Texas' Rio Grande Valley are now full
					

"We are now at the point of grave concern," said the CEO of one hospital system in deep South Texas as local hospitals began diverting patients away from their emergency rooms amid a crush of COVID-19 infections.




					www.texastribune.org


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 7, 2020)

Has anyone been tracking the test positivity rate?


----------



## DrQ (Jul 7, 2020)

Sapper said:


> My wife works in the medical field and one of the hats I wear at work is a systems analyst. Early on in all this (March), we (and everyone else) were looking for some kind of common trait that might connect a diverse group who have negative outcomes. It is easy to say the elderly, folks with specific chronic diseases (diabetes, high BP, etc), obese, etc. However, not all people in these categories become ill. Why?  One of the commonalities is a low vitamin D count. Our body makes it naturally, but as we age, we make less of it. We also tend to spend less time out in the sun as we get older. Folks with the specific chronic diseases tend to have low absorption rates, or take meds that state to stay out of the sun. Could it be low vitamin D count leads to a higher rate of negative outcomes?  My wife ran it by a few docs at her work in casual conversation as they were doing rounds. The result, we all take a vitamin D3 supplement now and spend more time out doors. A vitamin D supplement and spending more time outside has a low cost to benefit ratio, and the fact is it’s a good thing to do even if there were no COVID concerns.
> 
> Though I have not seen the data you mention, it’s nice to hear there is now corroborating data.


I have been hearing for a while that vitamin D deficiency was common in many of the severely ill. When you look up vitamin D dosage on Healthline:








						What Vitamin D Dosage Is Best?
					

Vitamin D is important for optimal health, but 42% of Americans are deficient. This article lets you know what dosage of vitamin D is best.




					www.healthline.com
				



"Despite its importance, roughly 42% of people in the US have a vitamin D deficiency. This number rises to a staggering 82.1% of black people and 69.2% of Hispanic people"​
This seems to be tracking with what we have been seeing with bad outcomes of COVID-19 in the younger population.

I'm convinced. I'm going to add vitamin D3 (2000 IU) to our vitamin C (1600 mg) and zinc (30 mg) supplements.


----------



## Brett (Jul 7, 2020)

DrQ said:


> I have been hearing for a while that vitamin D deficiency was common in many of the severely ill. When you look up vitamin D dosage on Healthline:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




it may also depend on your DNA

"The stretch of *six genes seems to increase the risk of severe illness from the coronavirus.*

Scientists don’t yet know why this particular segment increases the risk of severe illness from the coronavirus. But the new findings which were posted online on Friday and have not yet been published in a scientific journal, show how some clues to modern health stem from ancient history. "

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-neanderthals.html


----------



## bluehende (Jul 7, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Has anyone been tracking the test positivity rate?


With the talk of Texas   here is the Dept of Health graph


----------



## geist1223 (Jul 7, 2020)

COVID19 the gift that keeps on giving.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 7, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> People are the gift that keeps on giving.



Suggested fix...


----------



## bluehende (Jul 7, 2020)

Arizona positivity rate is the pcr test.  With a screenshot you cannot hover over and get the number for the last two weels.....they are jun 28 22%   july 5   30%


edited to add a link









						AZDHS | Epidemiology & Disease Control - Mosquito Borne
					

Working to monitor, prevent and control diseases in Arizona through education, immunization and research.




					www.azdhs.gov
				




then Lab testing button


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 7, 2020)




----------



## bluehende (Jul 7, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Has anyone been tracking the test positivity rate?


Upon farther research I came across this page that has all the testing and positivity data from the us and by state.









						Daily Testing Trends in Usa - Johns Hopkins
					

See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in Usa




					coronavirus.jhu.edu


----------



## klpca (Jul 7, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Upon farther research I came across this page that has all the testing and positivity data from the us and by state.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks for posting that. It was a fun data dive with some really interesting surprises - both high positivity and low positivity.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 7, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Upon farther research I came across this page that has all the testing and positivity data from the us and by state.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes, this is super interesting.


----------



## Fredflintstone (Jul 7, 2020)

Sapper said:


> My wife works in the medical field and one of the hats I wear at work is a systems analyst. Early on in all this (March), we (and everyone else) were looking for some kind of common trait that might connect a diverse group who have negative outcomes. It is easy to say the elderly, folks with specific chronic diseases (diabetes, high BP, etc), obese, etc. However, not all people in these categories become ill. Why? One of the commonalities is a low vitamin D count. Our body makes it naturally, but as we age, we make less of it. We also tend to spend less time out in the sun as we get older. Folks with the specific chronic diseases tend to have low absorption rates, or take meds that state to stay out of the sun. Could it be low vitamin D count leads to a higher rate of negative outcomes? My wife ran it by a few docs at her work in casual conversation as they were doing rounds. The result, we all take a vitamin D3 supplement now and spend more time out doors. A vitamin D supplement and spending more time outside has a low cost to benefit ratio, and the fact is it’s a good thing to do even if there were no COVID concerns.
> 
> Though I have not seen the data you mention, it’s nice to hear there is now corroborating data.



Funny you mention Vitamin D. About 10 years ago a Cancer specialist friend I know told me that there is a correlation between Cancer rates and low Vitamin D. It seems Vitamin D is critical to resistance to more things than just Cancer.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## davidvel (Jul 7, 2020)

Very old people cooped up indoors at death's door likely have very low vitamin d levels, and also are the most susceptible to death by C19 for reasons unrelated to vitamin d. May be correlated but no causation. 

But that won't make me stop taking vitamin d.


----------



## LMD (Jul 7, 2020)

DrQ said:


> I have been hearing for a while that vitamin D deficiency was common in many of the severely ill. When you look up vitamin D dosage on Healthline:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I too have read this in many different places. I live in FL and am low in Vit D....go figure. I have been taking 5000IU with K2 since the pandemic started along with the C and Zinc


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 7, 2020)

_Did a "Better Living Through Chemistry" convention start this week?

_


----------



## Cornell (Jul 7, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> _Did a "Better Living Through Chemistry" convention start this week?
> 
> _


(shhhhh!!  I'm working on a pretty big project at work for a vitamin manufacturer -- this discussion is giving me some job security).


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 7, 2020)

A lot of people are focusing now on the positivity rate as the latest scary statistic. But to me it just suggests that the contact tracers may be  getting better of what they do and that more people who were in contact with Covid are being sent to be tested rather than based on just symptoms that can be common for many other illnesses and conditions. 

Let's take Arizona for example. The tests are not being done randomly. A huge part of the population is not being tested so a higher positivity rate  does not mean that there are more sick people and we just do not know about it. If you are digging more and get more gold on a vein it does not mean that there is more gold outside that area. 














This is an article that discusses on June 18th the increase of contact tracing in AZ









						Arizona Gov Expands Contact Tracing in Face of Coronavirus Increase
					

Arizona Governor Doug Ducey announced Wednesday that a statewide contact tracing effort would be launched, along with other measures in response to the state's surge of COVID-19 cases.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## dayooper (Jul 7, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Funny you mention Vitamin D. About 10 years ago a Cancer specialist friend I know told me that there is a correlation between Cancer rates and low Vitamin D. It seems Vitamin D is critical to resistance to more things than just Cancer.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



There is also a correlation between vitamin D and MS. Some researchers have even linked low vitamin D in pregnant women to MS in their child.


----------



## DrQ (Jul 7, 2020)

LMD said:


> I too have read this in many different places. I live in FL and am low in Vit D....go figure. I have been taking 5000IU with K2 since the pandemic started along with the C and Zinc


I was reading and it looks as if 4000IU was the max daily dosage. I don't know how excess vitamin D is metabolized, so I decided on 2000IU so I could double to 4000IU if I wanted.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 7, 2020)

DrQ said:


> I was reading and it looks as if 4000IU was the max daily dosage. I don't know how excess vitamin D is metabolized, so I decided on 2000IU so I could double to 4000IU if I wanted.



If you have the time, watch this video.
Video on Vitamin D research (non-COVID) BY UCSD (which holds an investigative drug research license with the FDA). Included because of the multiyear dose toxicity research.
https://ucsd.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=29079

It goes into Vitamin D toxicity research. 5,000 ICUs is not a problem.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 7, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> _Did a "Better Living Through Chemistry" convention start this week?
> 
> _


That is a blast from the past from my former company.  I am not sure I would know it if my Father and Grandfather did not work for them too.  The slogan change while i was there was      The Miracles of Science.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 7, 2020)

FWIW, I’d suggest anyone considering taking larger doses of Vit D confirm with their doc. I have annual vitamin D blood test to confirm status and adjust as needed (I’ve been taking daily 3000u for a long time). If you take a multivitamin be sure to check how much is in that as well...mine has 1000u. 

I bought more vit D in March and even sent a few bottles to friends in New York who couldn’t find it affordably... Costco, of course. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## TravelTime (Jul 7, 2020)

bluehende said:


> With the talk of Texas   here is the Dept of Health graph
> 
> View attachment 23170



Wow, this is very high!


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 7, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> FWIW, I’d suggest anyone considering taking larger doses of Vit D confirm with their doc. I have annual vitamin D blood test to confirm status and adjust as needed (I’ve been taking daily 3000u for a long time). If you take a multivitamin be sure to check how much is in that as well...mine has 1000u.
> 
> I bought more vit D in March and even sent a few bottles to friends in New York who couldn’t find it affordably... Costco, of course.
> 
> ...



I'll wait for your late night commercial stating that if you call now, we'll send you an additional bottle FREE. Just pay separate shipping and handling of course.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 7, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Wow, this is very high!



A few others... and even more show disturbing trends. Hopefully these numbers will go lower as more wear masks, stop gatherings (even small birthday parties...I watched another interview with someone in hospital who was home except for a family birthday, etc).

Alabama: 12.5%
Arizona: 25.3%
California: 7.5%
Georgia: 13%
Idaho: 12%
Mississippi: 15%
Nevada: 13%
Texas: 13.8%
Florida: 18.7%
South Carolina: 16.6%

FWIW...New York: 1.1%

* 7 day moving average


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 7, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> I'll wait for your late night commercial stating that if you call now, we'll send you an additional bottle FREE. Just pay separate shipping and handling of course.



No need to wait for the commercial. If you need one just let me know. I'll send you one.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 7, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> No need to wait for the commercial. If you need one just let me know. I'll send you one.


Free Shipping?


----------



## cman (Jul 7, 2020)

bluehende said:


> View attachment 23171
> 
> Arizona positivity rate is the pcr test.  With a screenshot you cannot hover over and get the number for the last two weels.....they are jun 28 22%   july 5   30%
> 
> ...


Arizona just reported a record 117 deaths. Things aren't looking good for them.


----------



## Panina (Jul 7, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> A few others... and even more show disturbing trends. Hopefully these numbers will go lower as more wear masks, stop gatherings (even small birthday parties...I watched another interview with someone in hospital who was home except for a family birthday, etc).
> 
> Alabama: 12.5%
> Arizona: 25.3%
> ...


I am in SC.  My township the  last 7 days we had an increase of 20.8% Cases.  It was as high as 30% some days last week on a 7 day roll.  The death rate is up 18.1% the last 7 days.

This is our totals since the beginning.  Confirmed cases 562, deaths 13.  

Sometimes % is actually scarier then actual numbers.  

The good news is when I went the other day for my curbside pickup order more people were wearing mask then not, a big shift.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 7, 2020)

Panina said:


> I am in SC. My township the last 7 days we had an increase of 20.8% Cases. It was as high as 30% some days last week on a 7 day roll. The death rate is up 18.1% the last 7 days.
> 
> This is our totals since the beginning. Confirmed cases 562, deaths 13.
> 
> ...



The % is a leading indicator on future problems. Yes, the number in SC is scary. SC also has a >1 Rt, which indicates that the virus is spreading exponentially (https://rt.live/us/SC).

Please be careful.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 7, 2020)

For accuracy, according to your link SC has an Rt of 1.07 and that does not mean it is spreading exponentially but rather that the number of new cases is increasing very, very slowly.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 7, 2020)

*"Crunch Time" Arrives And... Was Everyone Wrong About The Coronavirus?*




__





						Zerohedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 7, 2020)

Or, then again, maybe people were wrong about Sweden...









						Sweden Has Become the World’s Cautionary Tale (Published 2020)
					

Its decision to carry on in the face of the pandemic has yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage — a red flag as the United States and Britain move to lift lockdowns.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## elaine (Jul 7, 2020)

I still don't understand. Why doesn't everyone just wear masks, and good ones, when inside? Social distancing likely doesn't even matter that much, likely low spread via contact. It's masks that make the difference. Whether you love/hate the govt. Who cares! One would have a hard time finding a Dr. or scientist that says masks don't matter at this point.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 7, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> Or, then again, maybe people were wrong about Sweden...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks for posting


----------



## cman (Jul 7, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> *"Crunch Time" Arrives And... Was Everyone Wrong About The Coronavirus?*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So far this country has lost 133,000 lives to this virus. Everyone wasn't wrong about the Coronavirus, just those that underestimated it and called it "the flu".


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 7, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> Or, then again, maybe people were wrong about Sweden...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Oh, Sweden, those grandma killers! Why doesn't the New York Times compare it with the New York state that had 300% more deaths per million than Sweden?

Is this how the curve was supposed to look like without a lock-down in the US?


----------



## Glynda (Jul 7, 2020)

Panina said:


> I am in SC.  My township the  last 7 days we had an increase of 20.8% Cases.  It was as high as 30% some days last week on a 7 day roll.  The death rate is up 18.1% the last 7 days.
> 
> This is our totals since the beginning.  Confirmed cases 562, deaths 13.
> 
> ...



Charleston’s City Council approved a mask mandate in all public buildings; outside if one can’t distance.  I saw almost everyone wearing one in the grocery store but very few outside, even on crowded sidewalks and in tour groups. Since I never know who or how many I am going to run into when I turn a corner walking, I wear one even outside until I get to an area I know will be quieter.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 7, 2020)

cman said:


> So far this country has lost 133,000 lives to this virus. Everyone wasn't wrong about the Coronavirus, just those that underestimated it and called it "the flu".


133,000 or 2.2 millions, which one was supposed to be?

In any case, the article has a lot of interesting information.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 7, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Oh, Sweden, those grandma killers! Why doesn't the New York Times compare it with the New York state that had 300% more deaths per million than Sweden?
> 
> Is this how the curve was supposed to look like without a lock-down in the US?
> View attachment 23218


Wait. What?  Sweden "Flattened the Curve" AND without shutting down their society.  And no rebound like in the US, which did kind of "shut down?"


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 7, 2020)

We were explained at the time how all this was going to unfold without the "shut down": 81% of the US population was going to be infected in 3 months, 2.2 million deaths. The problem is, Sweden  has proven them wrong by a factor of 15, has done a heck better than NY and this is why it is a thong in their eyes.









						Asking the Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?
					

Coronavirus and the Isolation Paradox   :ponder:   While social distancing may be required to contain the spread of the coronavirus, it may also contribute to poor health in the long run. So while physical isolation will be required for many Americans who have Covid-19 or have been exposed to...




					tugbbs.com


----------



## davidvel (Jul 7, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Oh, Sweden, those grandma killers! Why doesn't the New York Times compare it with the New York state that had 300% more deaths per million than Sweden?
> 
> Is this how the curve was supposed to look like without a lock-down in the US?
> View attachment 23218





CO skier said:


> Wait. What?  Sweden "Flattened the Curve" AND without shutting down their society.  And no rebound like in the US, which did kind of "shut down?"


Shhh...


----------



## CO skier (Jul 7, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Shhh...
> View attachment 23231


Shhhh ...?

NO!  Let's call the American Hyper-media on their exaggerations of the relative American experience.  Maybe then, the politicians will wake up to reality, instead of continuing to try to "contain" Covid-19, which has proven to be a failed public policy, at least in America.  And instead adopt a sensible public policy to truly deal with this epidemic -- open society, open schools, open businesses, with sensible precautions.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 7, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> it is a thong in their eyes.


Let me just say from experience Many years ago,  that is not a bad thing.  It was quite fun.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 7, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Let me just say from experience Many years ago,  that is not a bad thing.  It was quite fun.


lol I just noticed the typo. I will not correct it.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 8, 2020)

How did europe do it?   They  have 1/20th the daily infections  with 1/3 more population.  We lost basically 1000 people today.  Europe lost 350 with 155 coming from the UK another country that followed the US model.  Japan lost 1 person today.  And they did it with an economy that declined a lot less than ours did.  We are the only industrialized nation that seems to have to live with it.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 8, 2020)

bluehende said:


> How did europe do it?


Well, isn't THAT the bazillion dollar question scientists have been trying to answer for the last couple of months.

Let us know when you get the answer.  And I am sure every country in the world will follow the recommendation.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 8, 2020)

bluehende said:


> How did europe do it?   They  have 1/20th the daily infections  with 1/3 more population.  We lost basically 1000 people today.  Europe lost 350 with 155 coming from the UK another country that followed the US model.  Japan lost 1 person today.  And they did it with an economy that declined a lot less than ours did.  We are the only industrialized nation that seems to have to live with it.


Europe is a bit broad and a generalization. But these countries all have had more deaths per population than the US:

#Country,
OtherTotal
CasesNew
CasesTotal
DeathsNew
DeathsTotal
RecoveredActive
CasesSerious,
CriticalTot Cases/
1M popDeaths/
1M popTotal
TestsTests/
1M popPopulation1San Marino69842656020,5711,2385,729168,83833,9322Belgium62,0589,77417,12235,162275,3548431,313,064113,28711,590,6143Andorra85552800311,0656733,75048,53277,2684UK286,34944,391N/AN/A2094,21865410,777,399158,74167,892,8585Spain299,21028,392N/AN/A6176,4006075,734,599122,65246,755,1696Italy241,95634,899192,81514,242704,0025775,703,67394,33860,459,8267Sweden73,3445,447N/AN/A1037,261539520,20851,50310,100,4438France168,81029,93377,65561,2225382,5864591,384,63321,21265,276,501

That being said, we still need to see where they all end up.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 8, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Europe is a bit broad and a generalization. But these countries all have had more deaths per population than the US:
> 
> #Country,
> OtherTotal
> ...


Huh.  The US is not even on the list where I count 5 European countries out of 8.


----------



## DrQ (Jul 8, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Huh.  The US is not even on the list where I count 5 European countries out of 8.


That is because it was ordered by Deaths/1M population, US is 9th on the list at 405.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 8, 2020)

DrQ said:


> That is because it was ordered by Deaths/1M population, US is 9th on the list at 405.


And that changes the fact that there are 5 European countries out of the top 8 how?


----------



## DrQ (Jul 8, 2020)

CO skier said:


> And that changes the fact that there are 5 European countries out of the top 8 how?


As Jim Steinman wrote "2 out of three ain't bad" To counter @bluehende 


bluehende said:


> How did europe do it?


David showed that normalized for population we're doing better than, as you put it, "5 European countries out of the top 8". If you want to chase the others and add them up to your definition of "Europe", be my guest.

But then again, quoting Mr. Steinman:
"Baby we can talk all night​But that ain't getting us nowhere​I told you everything I possibly can​There's nothing left inside of here"​


----------



## jme (Jul 8, 2020)

*Risk assessment for various activities:









						Texas doctors rank activities posing greatest risks for contracting coronavirus
					

With the coronavirus spiking in a number of states, a group of Texas doctors has released a ranked list on how risky certain activities are when it comes to contracting COVID-19.




					www.foxnews.com
				



*


----------



## bluehende (Jul 8, 2020)

DrQ said:


> As Jim Steinman wrote "2 out of three ain't bad" To counter @bluehende
> 
> David showed that normalized for population we're doing better than, as you put it, "5 European countries out of the top 8". If you want to chase the others and add them up to your definition of "Europe", be my guest.
> 
> ...


I was talking about now.  I am not sure how we can quantitate a total death rate when one side has destroyed the curve and one side has enabled the curve.  This was the same argument used in march to prove that this was a lot less dangerous than the flu.  Historically arizona has done much better than ny but right now I want to be in ny with a testing positivity rate of 1% as opposed to AZ with the mid to upper 20s  

How about asia.....care to do that same analysis.  Japan for instance  their death per million is 8 compared to our 418.  China is 3.

His numbers are much more dependent on where you are in the pandemic.  I remember FL using that same argument when NY was in the soup.  Why should we do anything it is a NY problem.  How has that worked out for them.

We can talk all night but

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it 

George Santayana


----------



## bluehende (Jul 8, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Europe is a bit broad and a generalization. But these countries all have had more deaths per population than the US:
> 
> #Country,
> OtherTotal
> ...


I notice that the whole set of data is not there.  Where are the new cases?????
Here is that same data with that included.


To get to the first European country (UK at 32) the table is too large for tug.  I will stick to my statement.  Every other industrialized country is better off than we are at this point in the journey.  I know of no better metric than new cases to determine where you are right now in the outbreak  Is that not the most important thing to determine how to proceed forward.

sorry for the double of the table.


----------



## Conan (Jul 8, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Europe is a bit broad and a generalization. But these countries all have had more deaths per population than the US:
> 
> #Country,
> OtherTotal
> ...


Why would you offer a source that omits "New Cases" and "New Deaths" data?
Aren't we talking about whether/where "coronavirus cases are accelerating"? [to quote the topic heading]


----------



## Chrisky (Jul 8, 2020)

Here is the chart that shows countries.  USA is 1st, Brazil 2nd, UK is 8th and Canada 20th. 









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 126,033,763 Cases and 2,766,299 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




Someone above asked why isn’t the US doing better?  IMO there are too many factors to point to just one problem.  We have nay sayers here in my neck of the woods as well, but generally we have been following what our health experts have advised us to do.  And yes, their advise has changed, but so what.  In the course of any disease or epidemic, health professionals change their advise, and we continue to follow them.  Many communities are now voting in new bylaws to mandate everyone to wear face masks when entering any building - malls, hairdressers, barbers, large box stores etc., etc.

I wish everyone in the US luck in dealing with this pandemic.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 8, 2020)

When it comes to Europe Bluehende and others have some explaining to do rather than to ask questions. How come many European countries relaxed the measures early and opened the schools, some as early as mid-April and the apocalypse did not happen? Because we like comparisons, in the US teachers are arguing that it is not safe to go back to school in *September*.





__





						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org
				












						Schools reopening has not triggered rise in Covid-19 cases, EU ministers told
					

France’s education minister says it is more of a risk keeping children at home




					www.theguardian.com
				












						As Europe Reopens Schools, Relief Combines With Risk (Published 2020)
					

Restarting classes is central to reviving economies. But one question haunts the efforts: Just how contagious are children, and could they be the next super spreaders?




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 8, 2020)

Italy:


*Bars and restaurants *reopened on 18 May, but hosting reduced numbers of diners, with tables further apart and plastic shields to separate customers
*Hairdressers* also reopened on 18 May, as did more *shops*, *museums and libraries, *and sports teams are able to hold *group training*
*Catholic Church *masses resumed from 18 May, but with strict social distancing and wearing of face masks
*Theatres and cinemas* reopened on 15 June, but there is a strict limit of 200 people allowed inside; *nightclubs* will start reopening in July
*Schools *will not reopen until 1 September
*Gyms and swimming pools* reopened in most regions on 25 May, with strict social distancing rules, but not in Lombardy, the northern region at the epicentre of Italy's crisis
Some *tourist sites*, like the leaning Tower of Pisa, opened on 30 May
*Serie A football* returned 20 June, with amateur sports allowed from 25 June

Denmark:



*Day care centres *and *primary schools* returned on 14 April, with children attending in shifts. *Children aged 12-16* returned from 18 May
*Hairdressers, beauty and massage salons *and some other well-being services reopened on 20 April
*Professional sport* is allowed behind closed doors; *football's Super Liga* returned on 28 May
*Shopping centres *reopened on 11 May with social distancing
*Social gatherings* were first limited to 10 people - then on 8 June that was boosted to 50 under Phase 3
*Gyms and swimming pools *are also reopening under Phase 3, with social distancing
*Cafes and restaurants* reopened on 18 May, with social distancing, followed by *cinemas, theatres, museums and art galleries* on 21 May
*Borders* reopened for *tourists* from Norway, Iceland and Germany on 15 June - although border controls remain with Sweden










						Coronavirus: How lockdown is being lifted across Europe
					

As the UK alters its restrictions, how are other European countries reopening after lockdown?



					www.bbc.com


----------



## davidvel (Jul 8, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I notice that the whole set of data is not there.  Where are the new cases?????
> Here is that same data with that included.
> 
> 
> ...


I actually agree, and consistently stated that our mass lockdown has, and will have, accomplished  nothing in the long run.  Sweden shut down practically  nothing other than the most vulnerable, and I'm  confident our deaths per population will surpass them.  

Those great euro countries had all their old people on cots  in gyms to die off early. They opened up much before we have. 

As the experts have consistently said, you can't stop this virus through lockdowns, you can only spread the infections out over time.  People seem to think the experts are wrong, and that lockdowns can stop the spread.


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 8, 2020)

The southern part of Europe did just get slammed early on. At the time, there was no experience as to how to treat coVid-19, no promising drugs, no nothing. These places did lock down and as Danny notes, they are now opening up.  New York, Michigan, Washington also got slammed early. Florida wisely wouldn't let anyone from New York enter their state. (A variation of a lockdown.) Now all of these places, which got slammed for locking down, are doing much better, opening up. Ironically, NY doesn't want people travelling from Florida.

If you look back over recent posts, we see some that publish numbers that include all of their early cases and deaths with the intent of showing how bad these places are. (They locked up, look at how bad they are.) Okay, so southern Europe was really bad. The numbers prove that. But, now these European nations are doing comparitively well versus the US, so much so that they are refusing to allow American tourists to come much like NY now doesn't want visitors from Florida. (I might mention that I have a friend who lives in France who says that the lack of American tourists in her area is largely being made up for by Chinese tourists. Isn't that a kicker.)

Yes, we should look at why Europe which was so awful can now afford to open up while we are heading downhill. Just maybe it was because they locked down and did so tightly. Cetainly there has to be some explanation as to why we are going in just the opposite direction from them.


----------



## Brett (Jul 8, 2020)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

" Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

In short, Sweden suffered a vastly higher death rate while failing to collect on the expected economic gains.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 8, 2020)

davidvel said:


> I actually agree, and consistently stated that our mass lockdown has, and will have, accomplished  nothing in the long run.  Sweden shut down practically  nothing other than the most vulnerable, and I'm  confident our deaths per population will surpass them.
> 
> Those great euro countries had all their old people on cots  in gyms to die off early. They opened up much before we have.
> 
> As the experts have consistently said, you can't stop this virus through lockdowns, you can only spread the infections out over time.  People seem to think the experts are wrong, and that lockdowns can stop the spread.


great euro countries 4 months ago and great state of AZ now









						Arizona hospitals can start activating 'crisis care' standards due to COVID-19 surge
					

The state health department is reviewing recommendations for hospitals to enter crisis care mode. A number of doctors petitioned for the same Monday.



					www.azcentral.com
				




from the story

Arizona's state health director on Monday declared that hospitals could activate "crisis care standards" that guide the allocation of scarce resources to patients based on factors such as their likelihood for survival.


Activating crisis standards of care would, among other things, protect hospitals from legal liability for triaging patients, according to a set of guidelines that take into account a person's likelihood of survival, the extent of their sickness and other factors.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 8, 2020)

Here is a video with with direct quoting from the papers.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 8, 2020)

Brett said:


> View attachment 23248
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html
> 
> ...



I can find a lot of other countries, states and provinces and Sweden looks very good in comparison. The New York Times should look in its own backyard










Sweden had an additional 2% unemployment, New York state 11% (15% currently vs 3.7% in February)

Sweden lost 539 people per million to Covid, New York state lost 1660 per million.


A picture is worth a 1000 words as they say.
Sweden:





Lego store in New York:





I avoided posting pictures of NYC that look a lot worse than this.









						As shootings surge across US, police see COVID's crippling of justice system enabling crime
					

Chicago, Philadelphia, Atlanta and New York saw shootings jump over the holiday weekend.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## Old Hickory (Jul 8, 2020)

If we all had the exact same data, the reporting of it would still be different.    Journalism schools don't teach data analysis and I might suggest that those who choose a career in journalism lack the aptitude and skill to analyze data.

Honest journalists are not working for news organizations but they are citizen journalists using YouTube (like the video above) or Twitter (with links to a Vblog/blog).   The video above is 43 minutes long and it covers the data in detail.  News organizations give you a few seconds on the data so they need to feed your emotions, not inform you.  

@Ralph Sir Edward, thanks for the link.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 8, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> If we all had the exact same data, the reporting of it would still be different.    Journalism schools don't teach data analysis and I might suggest that those who choose a career in journalism lack the aptitude and skill to analyze data.
> 
> Honest journalists are not working for news organizations but they are citizen journalists using YouTube (like the video above) or Twitter (with links to a Vblog/blog).   The video above is 43 minutes long and it covers the data in detail.  News organizations give you a few seconds on the data so they need to feed your emotions, not inform you.
> 
> @Ralph Sir Edward, thanks for the link.


    Pro Bono Publico. . . .


----------



## Brett (Jul 8, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> If we all had the exact same data, the reporting of it would still be different.    Journalism schools don't teach data analysis and I might suggest that those who choose a career in journalism lack the aptitude and skill to analyze data.
> 
> Honest journalists are not working for news organizations but they are citizen journalists using YouTube (like the video above) or Twitter (with links to a Vblog/blog).   The video above is 43 minutes long and it covers the data in detail.  News organizations give you a few seconds on the data so they need to feed your emotions, not inform you.



LOL !

the  "honest"  journalists now work for twitter, facebook and other social media  ?  !!!






https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ve-counties-with-new-highs-coronavirus-cases/


----------



## Old Hickory (Jul 8, 2020)

Brett said:


> LOL !
> 
> the  "honest"  journalists now work for twitter, facebook and other social media  ?  !!!
> 
> ...



This is why I don't come here often.  Where, Brett, did I write "work for Twitter, facebook and other social media"?     Where?   My post is still up there if you want to check.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 8, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> This is why I don't come here often.  Where, Brett, did I write "work for Twitter, facebook and other social media"?     Where?   My post is still up there if you want to check.



Time for a new thread on media, professional journalists vs independents on social media (or just YouTube and Twitter...).


----------



## mark201235 (Jul 8, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> This is why I don't come here often.  Where, Brett, did I write "work for Twitter, facebook and other social media"?     Where?   My post is still up there if you want to check.



This is where the “Ignore“ function comes in handy. Although I’m not a frequent poster, I’ve been around TUG for quite a while. I’m on the site several times a day keeping up with timesharing and other topics. It hasn’t been much fun for me lately because of some members/posters seemingly posting on every thread concerning contentious issues. We are all entitled to our opinions but I can only take so much of it. I placed about a half dozen people on the ignore list last week and it has been a much more pleasurable experience navigating the site and not having to view their comments. 

Mark


----------



## Cornell (Jul 8, 2020)

For those of you who enjoy digging into this data, I found a cool interactive dashboard of FL data.  Lots of nice features. 






						Tableau Public
					






					public.tableau.com


----------



## Brett (Jul 8, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Time for a new thread on media, professional journalists vs independents on social media (or just YouTube and Twitter...).



yes,  the "vloggers" and YouTubers and twitter - home of the real "*honest*" journalists   !!!
especially Twitter .... some real truthful folks there


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 8, 2020)

Brett said:


> yes,  the "vloggers" and YouTubers and twitter - home of the real "*honest*" journalists   !!!
> especially Twitter .... some real truthful folks there


You sure love that emoji don't you, @Brett ....


----------



## Conan (Jul 8, 2020)

Cornell said:


> For those of you who enjoy digging into this data, I found a cool interactive dashboard of FL data.  Lots of nice features.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks Laura.
That's the first I've seen that tallies out-of-state residents who die in Florida. The State only reports in-state residents as Florida county deaths, so Johns Hopkins and similar sites don't include them.


----------



## cman (Jul 8, 2020)

Conan said:


> Thanks Laura.
> That's the first I've seen that tallies out-of-state residents who die in Florida. The State only reports in-state residents as Florida county deaths, so Johns Hopkins and similar sites don't include them.


I never understood Florida's practice of excluding non residents in their numbers. It always seemed shady as hell. It's like they're purposely trying to fudge the numbers. Do the other states do this?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 8, 2020)

If Florida does not report the non-residents, where is this site getting the data from?


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 8, 2020)

cman said:


> I never understood Florida's practice of excluding non residents in their numbers. It always seemed shady as hell. It's like they're purposely trying to fudge the numbers. Do the other states do this?



Not sure about other states, but it took me all of five seconds to find where this site gets its data. Of course, we should have an organized, centralized data management system for the country that has this type of data for all states (for all I know, we do and just don’t know about it).









						Florida COVID19 Case Line Data
					

Case line data for COVID-19 confirmed cases in the state of Florida, updated daily.



					open-fdoh.hub.arcgis.com
				










Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## PigsDad (Jul 9, 2020)

No surprise here...



			Tulsa health department says contact tracers 'inundated' as city hits a new single day case high
		


Kurt


----------



## CO skier (Jul 9, 2020)

cman said:


> I never understood Florida's practice of excluding non residents in their numbers. It always seemed shady as hell. It's like they're purposely trying to fudge the numbers. Do the other states do this?


What if a few thousand NY, CT, NJ residents contract Covid-19 in their home state, travel to FL and expire there.  Should their deaths be counted as part of Covid-19 FL deaths?  Does the coroner know how long any non-resident has been in the state before death?


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 9, 2020)

CO skier said:


> What if a few thousand NY, CT, NJ residents contract Covid-19 in their home state, travel to FL and expire there.  Should their deaths be counted as part of Covid-19 FL deaths?  Does the coroner know how long any non-resident has been in the state before death?



If FL is not counting the deaths for non residents, is their home state counting the death or is it going unrecorded? What is the standard practice for where the deaths should be assigned? Is it usually where they die or is it the state of residence?


----------



## CO skier (Jul 9, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> If FL is not counting the deaths for non residents, is their home state counting the death or is it going unrecorded? What is the standard practice for where the deaths should be assigned? Is it usually where they die or is it the state of residence?


I have no idea.  It is certainly another confounding factor in whatever numbers a state reports.  And what about all those spring-breakers who caught Covid-19 in FL but tested positive when they got back home?


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 9, 2020)

CO skier said:


> I have no idea.  It is certainly another confounding factor in whatever numbers a state reports.  And what about all those spring-breakers who caught Covid-19 in FL but tested positive when they got back home?



It seems to me that the best way to track these cases would be to record them wherever the testing occurred or where the death occurred, not where they caught it or what state they reside in.


----------



## Brett (Jul 9, 2020)

July 9 2020





https://ourworldindata.org



Wall Street Journal   July 9, 2020


----------



## jme (Jul 9, 2020)

*yet another article:*









						Wearing a mask cuts own risk of novel coronavirus by 65 percent, experts say
					

Health experts have stressed the importance of wearing masks to limit the possibility of infections others with COVID-19, but a range of new research now suggests they also protect the wearer, according to a report Monday.




					www.foxnews.com
				




Excerpts:
"We've learned more due to research and additional scientific evidence and now we know [that] not only wearing a mask prevents the person wearing the mask to transmit to others, but wearing the mask protects the person who's wearing it," said Dean Blumberg, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Children’s Hospital.
"So the wearer of the mask, even the standard rectangular surgical masks ... will decrease the risk of infection by the person wearing the mask by about 65 percent."
Ristenpart's lab at UC Davis has studied how people emit small droplets while breathing or talking that could carry the virus.
The pair highlighted two primary methods of transmission. The first being visible droplets a carrier expels, which are roughly one-third the size of a human hair. They said masks create an effective barrier against those types of droplets.
The second is via the aerosol particles we expel when we talk. They are about 1/100th the size of a human hair and are more difficult to defend against. He said that's because the smaller particles could still sneak through a gap in rectangular or homemade cloth masks.
“Everyone should wear a mask,” Blumberg said. “People who say, ‘I don’t believe masks work,’ are ignoring scientific evidence. It’s not a belief system. It’s like saying, ‘I don’t believe in gravity.’"

*MEANWHILE, on a VACCINE:*
*Dr. Nesheiwat: 'Great news' about Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine development*


----------



## Conan (Jul 9, 2020)

Conan said:


> Thanks Laura.
> That's the first I've seen that tallies out-of-state residents who die in Florida. The State only reports in-state residents as Florida county deaths, so Johns Hopkins and similar sites don't include them.


I believe "cases" are reported differently from "deaths."

My understanding is Florida's published aggregate death number includes non-resident deaths, but at least for Johns Hopkins purposes only resident deaths are counted at the County level. But I'm having trouble tracking down whether I'm right or wrong about that.

I did find other information about what Florida does and doesn't report:








						Data Nuances, Caveats and Pitfalls
					

Because we only use official, Florida Department of Health-published data, we are limited by the restrictions they place on the data.  Here we discuss two of the major limitations - test data and hospital/death data.




					floridacovidaction.com
				



*As to deaths:*
"DOH does not provide the date of death for any case. The chart on the now-disabled DOH dshboard showing resident deaths by date is just that – residents only by date of death for cases where a death certificate has been received and the date of death verified by the state. 

The CDC warns “delays in reporting a person’s death to the state can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.” 

According to internal DOH records, deaths reported by DOH were reported an average 7-21 days after the COVID-19 positive person died (date from March through mid-June_, with some deaths reported as late as 44 days after death."

*As to ICU use:*
"On June 22, 2020, Governor DeSantis announced that the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) would no longer report the number of occupied ICU beds as it had previously been done.

AHCA provides the hospital data you see on this page. 

Consequently, the number of available beds shown here likely includes beds that are currently occupied, but that the DeSantis administration has determined by an un-disclosed metric could be made available by removing the person occupying it."


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 9, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> If FL is not counting the deaths for non residents, is their home state counting the death or is it going unrecorded? What is the standard practice for where the deaths should be assigned? Is it usually where they die or is it the state of residence?


This situation was actually discussed in the daily updates here in Arkansas.  Dr. Nathan Smith mentioned situations like this as an issue when recording and tracking not just deaths but every thing with respect to COVID-19 tracking and tracing.  Data on cases (including, but not limited to deaths) should always be considered to be incomplete because as more facts are discovered, it may indeed change the data.  When the NW corner of the state became a hot spot, there were a fair number of cases that crossed the state borders.  Accurately attributing that data is not a simple task.   

I know we all are aware of this, but it is just a good reminder that data is never static when it comes to humans....


----------



## bluehende (Jul 9, 2020)

From florida

I hope todays reported number is an aberration.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 9, 2020)

I get the idea of 7 day moving averages is to decrease the effect of a 1 day aberration, but I am wondering if a 7 day rolling average is still too narrow. 
Might a 10 or 14 day moving average be more useful?


----------



## bluehende (Jul 9, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I get the idea of 7 day moving averages is to decrease the effect of a 1 day aberration, but I am wondering if a 7 day rolling average is still too narrow.
> Might a 10 or 14 day moving average be more useful?




The 7 day moving average is to take out daily variations in reporting.  10 day would add that back in.  Using 14 day would just delay seeing a trend while gaining little.  Of course you can just look at the bars and get a trend for yourself.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 9, 2020)

bluehende said:


> The 7 day moving average is to take out daily variations in reporting.  10 day would add that back in.  *Using 14 day would just delay seeing a trend while gaining little*.  Of course you can just look at the bars and get a trend for yourself.



I see the point about daily variations, but with some much data now available, it seems like a longer average period would be a truer representation of data that may be getting reclassified (corrected).  Oh well - just curious.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 9, 2020)

*Under pressure from scientists globally, the W.H.O. acknowledges that the virus can linger in the air indoors.*
The World Health Organization on Thursday formally acknowledged that droplets carrying the coronavirus may be airborne indoors and that people who spend long periods in crowded settings with inadequate ventilation may be at risk of becoming infected, a reversal that many scientists said was long overdue.

The agency also acknowledged unequivocally that the virus can be transmitted by people who do not have symptoms.

Apoorva Mandavilli reports on the admission, which came after a push by more than 200 experts prompted the agency to update its description of how the virus is spread. The agency now says transmission of the virus by aerosols, or tiny droplets, may have been responsible for “outbreaks of Covid-19 reported in some closed settings, such as restaurants, nightclubs, places of worship or places of work where people may be shouting, talking, or singing.”

The W.H.O. still largely emphasizes the spread of the virus by larger droplets that are coughed or inhaled, or from contact with a contaminated surface, also known as “fomite transmission.” And in a longer document on the scientific evidence, the agency still maintains that “detailed investigations of these clusters suggest that droplet and fomite transmission could also explain human-to-human transmission within these clusters.”

In addition to avoiding close contact with infected people and washing hands, people should “avoid crowded places, close-contact settings, and confined and enclosed spaces with poor ventilation,” the W.H.O. has said. It said homes and offices should ensure good ventilation.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 9, 2020)

Interesting but alarming chart in NY Times today.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 9, 2020)

As someone who is constantly promoting the value of education in math & statistics to children, this thread is a case study as to why!

2020 has more tables, graphs, charts in the history of mankind.


----------



## Brett (Jul 9, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Interesting but alarming chart in NY Times today.
> 
> View attachment 23355




I saw that graph
it's comparing state re openings and (indirectly)  how a *certain 24/7 cable news show* repeatedly hyped the "Florida model" !

July 9


----------



## Panina (Jul 9, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Interesting but alarming chart in NY Times today.
> 
> View attachment 23355


Why does this surprise anyone?   It was to be expected.  It didn’t need to be so steep of an incline just following procedures recommended.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 9, 2020)

Panina said:


> Why does this surprise anyone?   It was to be expected.  It didn’t need to be so steep of an incline just following procedures recommended.



It makes me think the shut down from March through May was a failure. We might as well have never shut down.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 9, 2020)

We need significantly more testing, and testing supplies (wasn't this supposed to have been solved months ago?).

Phoenix (inadequate testing facilities)








						The Mayor of Phoenix said she only found out the city was getting a 'significant' federal coronavirus testing site from a tweet
					

"I'm obviously deeply concerned about...the ability of our healthcare system to respond to this increase in cases," Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego said.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Los Angeles (no appointments available for testing)








						COVID-19 test appointments full this week as L.A. County grapples with increased demand, surging spread
					

The demand for coronavirus testing will likely continue to outstrip appointment availability over the next few weeks in Los Angeles County, even as officials scramble to expand capacity amid record…




					ktla.com
				




San Bernardino (cancels test appointments due to lack of supplies)








						San Bernardino County cancels hundreds of COVID-19 tests as supplies dwindle
					

The county's testing capacity dropped by about 62% in the past week.



					www.desertsun.com
				




Hawaii (shortage of testing supplies)








						Hawaii Labs Face Shortage Of COVID-19 Testing Supplies
					

A national supplier has reduced its shipments to Hawaii as it shifts focus to helping laboratories in states with more severe coronavirus outbreaks.




					www.civilbeat.org
				




Test results now take longer due to surge








						As COVID-19 testing soars, Americans are forced to wait longer for results
					

People getting coronavirus tests at health centers, pharmacies and drive-thru or walk-up sites are often waiting a week or more for their results.




					www.latimes.com
				











						Covid-19 Test Results Take Longer as Infections Rise Sharply
					

The surge in U.S. coronavirus cases and growing demand for Covid-19 tests are straining the ability of pharmacies and labs to deliver timely results to consumers, causing delays that hamper efforts to contain the virus.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## Brett (Jul 9, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> It makes me think the shut down from March through May was a failure. We might as well have never shut down.



I'm glad they shut down my mother's nursing home in March


----------



## Cornell (Jul 9, 2020)

Brett said:


> I'm glad they shut down my mother's nursing home in March


Same here -- my mom's got shut down early March. I got to see her for the first time yesterday.    I'm not a crier, but I burst into tears when I saw her.


----------



## Passepartout (Jul 9, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Same here -- my mom's got shut down early March. I got to see her for the first time yesterday.    I'm not a crier, but I burst into tears when I saw her.


 Great, Laura! I hope you were able to express your love to her.  Our 'kids' just don't seem to be able to say it enough. And it feels good.- for all of us.

Jim


----------



## Cornell (Jul 9, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Great, Laura! I hope you were able to express your love to her.  Our 'kids' just don't seem to be able to say it enough. And it feels good.- for all of us.
> 
> Jim


Oh my gosh.  I sure did -- I think she knew how I felt when I started to cry.  It surprised her because I'm not that type. She immediately said "what's wrong honey"? My mom has dementia but she's very high functioning still.  She has been watching the news so she understands what's going on societally but has been "locked up" so doesn't understand the implications with every day living.  She used to be the school board president.  When I was filling her in on what's going on with the challenges of school reopening she said "oh, thank god I never had to deal with THAT!".  

It DOES feel good.


----------



## Panina (Jul 9, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> It makes me think the shut down from March through May was a failure. We might as well have never shut down.


I think not enough was known.  It was a pause for a reset.  Life has to go on.


----------



## Panina (Jul 9, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Same here -- my mom's got shut down early March. I got to see her for the first time yesterday.    I'm not a crier, but I burst into tears when I saw her.


Fabulous news, so happy both of you got to see each other.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 9, 2020)

Panina said:


> Fabulous news, so happy both of you got to see each other.


I hope you can get to NYC soon, too, to see your own mom.  It's been too long for so many.


----------



## Panina (Jul 9, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I hope you can get to NYC soon, too, to see your own mom.  It's been too long for so many.


Our state numbers are so high I am afraid I will bring it to mom and now she doesn’t want me traveling by plane or train, keeps saying I am ok.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 9, 2020)

Panina said:


> I think not enough was known.  It was a pause for a reset.  Life has to go on.



It was done for the following reason:

1. Vain hope for containment.
2. Stretch out the the disease curve for ICU availability.
3. Hope for a new or repurposed drug(s) for a reasonable treatment. 

Results:

1. We've blown totally out of containment. There's no stopping it now. (My guess is the infection curve will peak in 1-2 months, with the death curve about 1 month later.)
2. No longer a possibility.
3. All the repurposed drug possibilites have been squashed. The only "new" drug is Remdesivir, which is only marginally effective. (According to the "gold plated" standard. According to that trial, it did not statistically improve mortality rates, and only reduces hospitalization time from an average of 14 days to 11 days, and this with a 8% rate of dropping the drug due to side effects. )

I'm tired of explaining here. I think I'll just have a Rum and Coke and let the world go to pieces. . .


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 9, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> It was done for the following reason:
> 
> 1. Vain hope for containment.
> 2. Stretch out the the disease curve for ICU availability.
> ...


Containment predictably did not work. I would add the 4th result, increase in public debt. I will let others calculate for the US but if you add the 2020 federal and provincial deficit per capita in Ontario, Canada for example, it is 11,000 CAD for every woman, man and child. For a family of 4, that is 44,000 Canadian dollars. Corporations pay taxes too but you get the idea especially since a lot of families with lower income pay little to no income so the burden will actually be higher on the rest. 

 Of course, the deficit will not be limited to 2020, next year we will talk about the same issues, I just do not expect the public budgets to look like 2019 for several years.


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 9, 2020)

Maybe I should add a word about my friend's experience in France. During the initial stages of the lockdown, if she left her apartment, she had to have ID papers with her. She would inevitably be checked out by police (not many people would be out since everyone was suppose to stay indoors), have to explain where she was going (to check that it was essential that she be out and about), and monitored that she was going where she said and headed right back.

Severe. Absolutely, but France (and most of southern Europe which was an absolute disaster) is now largely open for business.

To be honest, we never had the national will to do a full lockdown. Think of all those who said that they would not wear face masks, who felt that their freedom to congregate and do what they want was part of the American ideal. Okay, we are now paying the price. Give me liberty and give me death.


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 9, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Same here -- my mom's got shut down early March. I got to see her for the first time yesterday.    I'm not a crier, but I burst into tears when I saw her.


So glad that you could see your mother. I don't know how the facility where she is manages things, but for comparison, one of the facilities where I live has set up an outdoor area where people can meet. Only two people can meet the resident at once, social distancing has to be respected, and all parties have to be wearing face masks. Not ideal to say the least, but at least the residents can meet with their relatives or close friends.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 9, 2020)

ICU in Bergamo, Italy, finally COVID-free after 'nightmare'
					

The ICU in the main hospital in Bergamo, Italy, has declared itself COVID-free after 137 days.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 9, 2020)

People are constantly on alert by the next hot place but we also have to take into consideration that the virus will run its course. Italy, France, Spain, New York were hit by Covid first and they are doing better now. Maybe part of the population has built some immunity (25-30% in NYC)
Other countries and states have followed with a large number of cases. In two months there will undoubtedly be others on the list.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 9, 2020)

Cornell said:


> As someone who is constantly promoting the value of education in math & statistics to children, this thread is a case study as to why!
> 
> *2020 has more tables, graphs, charts in the history of mankind*.



...with lots of examples of both good and bad graphs!


----------



## Monykalyn (Jul 9, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> It makes me think the shut down from March through May was a failure. We might as well have never shut down.


 Yes and no-problem was NYC was hit so hard it induced a panic driven shutdown EVERYWHERE even when it made no sense-so some places are seeing the surge all at once NOW vs having surgical shutdowns as cases started rising. For example-would Texas and Arizona be so resistant to shutting down for a period of time NOW if they weren't already very fatigued and tired of being shut up? Interestingly enough if you follow trends/curves nearly every country that is doing better now has followed a seasonal flu pattern and curve-except USA...but those countries had cohesive messaging and leadership. Yes even Sweden. Sweden will have kids back in school this fall and no crippling fear of the virus.


Brett said:


> I'm glad they shut down my mother's nursing home in March


 Yes now that we know more about who is MOST vulnerable it helps. However we also have to take into account mental health and well being. sooner or later covid will come into nearly every care facility anyway-just hoping by then we have treatment options. 


Cornell said:


> Same here -- my mom's got shut down early March. I got to see her for the first time yesterday.    I'm not a crier, but I burst into tears when I saw her.


 Sooooo glad you got to see her!!!! Bet it did her just as much good as you!


"Roger" said:


> not many people would be out since everyone was suppose to stay indoors)


 Which we now know indoor transmission is much higher risk than outdoors. Biggest mistake (in hindsight but made common sense anyway) was shutting parks/trails/beaches etc. Sure enforce distancing and encouraging disinfecting, along with mask wearing if distancing not an option. But outdoors is STILL much less risk than indoors. I really think part of the reason we have so many disregarding recommendations now is the being told to sit down, shut up, and stay inside and the virtue signaling/shaming that occurred if you didn't listen to the shills. South Dakota didn't have the hard lockdown and SIP orders-the tribes isolated themselves and rightly so as they are vulnerable-and their numbers haven't spiked nor are bad. There is also now the distrust of any "expert" due to media soundbites not giving the nuanced answers the pros were saying. Dr Fauci did himself a HUGE disservice lying about masks not needed vs saying please leave the surgical/N95 masks for professionals who are definitely working around our sickest population, but please feel free and to make your own mask and encourage everyone to do so and diligently wear it- in other words being upfront and honest.  He may be giving sound advice but remember there is a reason he has survived so many administrations!


----------



## Cornell (Jul 9, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> So glad that you could see your mother. I don't know how the facility where she is manages things, but for comparison, one of the facilities where I live has set up an outdoor area where people can meet. Only two people can meet the resident at once, social distancing has to be respected, and all parties have to be wearing face masks. Not ideal to say the least, but at least the residents can meet with their relatives or close friends.


Yes -- a tremendous amount of "rules & regs".  It's ok - we will take what we can get.  The biggest challenge is that my mom can only have 1 visit per week.  She has 5 kids and a brother that want to visit her so that's a family issue.  Also, my daughter is 17 and only visitors 18+ are allowed in .  That's a big bummer.


----------



## Conan (Jul 9, 2020)

Larry Brilliant on How Well We Are Fighting Covid-19








						Larry Brilliant on How Well We Are Fighting Covid-19
					

Three months ago, the epidemiologist weighed in on what we must do to defeat this new threat. We went back to ask: How are we doing, and what comes next?




					www.wired.com
				




Wikipedia—Larry Brilliant








						Larry Brilliant - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## LMD (Jul 9, 2020)

DrQ said:


> I was reading and it looks as if 4000IU was the max daily dosage. I don't know how excess vitamin D is metabolized, so I decided on 2000IU so I could double to 4000IU if I wanted.


 My dosage was prescribed by my functional medicine practitioner. I think you have to measure the blood level of vitamin D and adjust the dosage to optimize the level.


----------



## amycurl (Jul 10, 2020)

For those of you who, like me, like data visualized in pretty pictures. This is a great graphic that illustrates how community spread works (and why we're seeing spikes post-"re-opening".) Shared from the Catawaba Co, NC governmental FB page. (Catawba is a fairly rural community, near the mountains in the west of NC.)

The good news from my EM calls today? The numbers of COVID cases hospitalized in the county where I work are almost half of what they were a week ago. ICUs are still near/at capacity, but mostly with other, non-COVID cases. There are less folks on ventilators, too, because they've been using other treatment options (like remdesivir.)


----------



## davidvel (Jul 10, 2020)

bluehende said:


> ICU in Bergamo, Italy, finally COVID-free after 'nightmare'
> 
> 
> The ICU in the main hospital in Bergamo, Italy, has declared itself COVID-free after 137 days.
> ...


I am sure once the US is "covid free" the death rate will be up to almost 600/M population as Italy is, but hopefully not.


----------



## Brett (Jul 10, 2020)

davidvel said:


> I am sure once the US is "covid free" the death rate will be up to almost 600/M population as Italy is, but hopefully not.



that article referred to ICU intensive care units being "covid free"
sure, when the world is free of covid 19 there will be a celebration ... (with social distancing)

July 10   2020





out of ICU beds

https://www.wkrg.com/top-stories/mi...medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark


----------



## CO skier (Jul 11, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> It seems to me that the best way to track these cases would be to record them wherever the testing occurred or where the death occurred, not where they caught it or what state they reside in.


So, a thousands spring-breakers catch Covid-19 in FL, fly home, and are tested positive for Covid-19 in their Home State.  How does it make any sense to record these cases in the Home State versus the hotspot source of FL?


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 11, 2020)

CO skier said:


> So, a thousands spring-breakers catch Covid-19 in FL, fly home, and are tested positive for Covid-19 in their Home State.  How does it make any sense to record these cases in the Home State versus the hotspot source of FL?



How would you record them in FL if they are not tested in FL?


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 11, 2020)

CO skier said:


> So, a thousands spring-breakers catch Covid-19 in FL, fly home, and are tested positive for Covid-19 in their Home State. How does it make any sense to record these cases in the Home State versus the hotspot source of FL?



Which state is providing medical care for them? How would it make sense to record the cases for a different state?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Panina (Jul 11, 2020)

CO skier said:


> So, a thousands spring-breakers catch Covid-19 in FL, fly home, and are tested positive for Covid-19 in their Home State.  How does it make any sense to record these cases in the Home State versus the hotspot source of FL?


Unfortunately this is happening all across the US.  Being state to state travel is so easy and open this will happen over and over.  A friend just went back to NJ from her home in SC, driving.  Her family could bring it back to NJ not knowing.  If her family or another then spread it wouldn’t all those cases technically be because of SC.  Just  impossible  to  keep tally of each case from state origin.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 11, 2020)

That's very true. You know the date when the symptoms first show however, contraction of the virus could have occurred any time within a 1-14 day period prior. Do you know where the person was each day of that two week period? And if multiple places, which point was the virus contracted? Good luck.


----------



## Brett (Jul 11, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> How would you record them in FL if they are not tested in FL?



probably the Florida COVID cases are from being tested in Florida

July 11 2020






https://www.foxnews.com/us/florida-hospitals-max-out-icu-coronavirus


----------



## Cornell (Jul 11, 2020)

And if you are traveling a lot , how do you even know where you specifically caught the virus ?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 11, 2020)

This is how  the Covid deaths are counted 





__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=3151129788277372


----------



## geekette (Jul 11, 2020)

Cornell said:


> And if you are traveling a lot , how do you even know where you specifically caught the virus ?


Yeah, I am glad to be past 2 weeks home, as gas pumps, rest area bathrooms, who knows....


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 11, 2020)

Cornell said:


> And if you are traveling a lot , how do you even know where you specifically caught the virus ?



You would be looking for the proverbial needle in a haystack.


----------



## geist1223 (Jul 11, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> That's very true. You know the date when the symptoms first show however, contraction of the virus could have occurred any time within a 1-14 day period prior. Do you know where the person was each day of that two week period? And if multiple places, which point was the virus contracted? Good luck.



This assumes you are not one of the 30% to 40% that are asymtomatic.  So you spread it and never know you have it.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 11, 2020)

From a Los Angeles nurse:



> I'm heading into work tonight expecting 4 out of my 4 patients to die. For my medical friends, I'm caring for 4 Covid patients all on ventilators, all on levophed/propofol drips NOT on continuous monitoring because they're not actually in an ICU (the ICU is at capacity). They're in a converted maternity unit and I'm by myself. No monitor tech, one EMT for the whole floor. If I'm not constantly in the room, I have no idea what their vitals are. I can't sit down, I can't stop at the computer station to chart. I spend an hour or two at the end of every shift trying to reconstruct some semblance of charting from scraps of paper with scribbled notes shoved into my scrub pockets. And that's only IF the oncoming nurse accepts my patients (2 of them have refused, so I have to stay after my 12 hr shift until the hospital can locate someone willing to accept responsibility for them. (It's no one's fault, we're all just trying to keep people alive) 2 of my patients have already had multiple codes, 1 has a blood pressure of 70/20 maxed out on pressors and 1 is DNR. I don't even have time to speak with the family. Some family members barely know what hospital their loved one is at. All of these patients were flown in from other overwhelmed California hospitals. I can't even take their calls because if I do, I might miss a dropping heart rate. I feel horrible about it. On Monday we will have some relief when a new group of travel nurses arrive. Until then, I'm just trying to do my best in this nightmare. No amount of "you're a hero" sentiment can ever erase the trauma of these past few days. Stay home, wear a mask, social distance. This is real and it sucks.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ken555 (Jul 11, 2020)

For those interested in charts... many perspectives on the impact on Los Angeles:



			https://corona-virus.la/sites/default/files/inline-files/Release_Daily%20Data%20Report%20Tuesday%207_7_F.pdf


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 11, 2020)

*Why it may be harder to catch COVID-19 from surfaces than we first thought*




			https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-surfaces-groceries-packages-playgrounds-1.5645602


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 11, 2020)

*Pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2: the knowns and unknowns*




__





						Pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2: the knowns and unknowns - Nature Reviews Immunology
					

Recent studies have shown T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 in 20â€“50% of unexposed individuals; it is speculated that this is due to T cell memory to common cold coronaviruses. Here, Crotty and Sette discuss the potential implications of these findings for disease severity, herd immunity and...




					www.nature.com


----------



## davidvel (Jul 12, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> From a Los Angeles nurse:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What is not mentioned is that this is generally exactly how all ICU nurses deal with ICU patients who DO NOT have COVID on a daily basis, prior to COVID outbreak, and currently, most of whom in ICU do not have COVID. Maybe not so much the anecdotes about lack of staffing, but types of patients, and outcomes the same, regardless of all the heroic intervention. 

ICU is the last place you want to be, and for many if not most that end up there, the last place they will ever be.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

*Dr. Atlas: Coronavirus surges linked mostly to protests -- and proximity to US-Mexico border*










						Dr. Atlas: Coronavirus surges linked mostly to protests -- and proximity to US-Mexico border
					

The recent surges in U.S. coronavirus cases can be traced to two key factors -- crowds of protesters and proximity to the U.S.-Mexico border, Dr. Scott Atlas, a senior fellow at The Hoover Institution, said Saturday night.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## bluehende (Jul 12, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> *Dr. Atlas: Coronavirus surges linked mostly to protests -- and proximity to US-Mexico border*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


An MRI expert from a conservative think tank in a fox news opinion piece with no data is our expert now.

It has been widely reported that border hospitals are seeing a lot of Americans crossing the border to get health care but there is no data to support the second theory.  We have been over this adnauseam.  If you have no new data lets not go through this again.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 12, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> From a Los Angeles nurse:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Touching comments. Source?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

bluehende said:


> An MRI expert from a conservative think thank in a fox news opinion piece with no data is our expert now.
> 
> It has been widely reported that border hospitals are seeing a lot of Americans crossing the border to get health care but there is no data to support the second theory.  We have been over this adnauseam.  If you have no new data lets not go through this again.



The mayor of LA and  the Director of Public Health Dr Barbara Ferrer said the same. But it must be fake news indeed, we all know that the protesters are immune to the virus.









						Los Angeles mayor admits protests caused a spike in coronavirus cases
					

During a press conference, LA Mayor Eric Garcetti admitted health officials have determined that recent protests may have contributed to a spike in coronavirus cases in the city.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				





If you had to point out that he is a conservative, you may want to do the same with all the sources you quote from either side. Unless of course it is only important when you do not agree with what they say.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 12, 2020)

bluehende said:


> An MRI expert from a conservative think tank in a fox news opinion piece with no data is our expert now.
> 
> We have been over this adnauseam.  If you have no new data lets not go through this again.


You do understand that there is no requirement to participate.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 12, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> You do understand that there is no requirement to participate.


Yet in the post right above this you are asking for a source


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Yet in the post right above this you are asking for a source


Yet you did* not* ask for the source of that same post, you accepted it as it was and you even liked it. 
It looks like requests for proof only come to the posts you do not like.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 12, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Yet in the post right above this you are asking for a source



Yes, you're absolutely correct. Simply asking for the source of such touching comments.

As for, "we have been over this adnauseam. If you have no new data lets not go through this again."

Adnauseam is such strange word and not often used, but nonetheless.  

You see, I don't care one way or another on how often a subject has been discussed. If I become bored or frustrated with it, I simply move on. Should anyone, or in this case several individuals, choose to talk about it, more power to them. I, like you, are never required to participate. Those participants are free to go through it as much as they choose. Old data, new data or no data. Should a post contain a comment from an outside source, I think we all should have a chance to visit it.

So anyway, speaking of adnauseam. I do wish to thank you though.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 12, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Yes, you're absolutely correct. Simply asking for the source of such touching comments.



[Personal comment removed.]


----------



## jme (Jul 12, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> View attachment 23073









jme said:


> *I suspect the graph will change a bit over the coming weeks. July 4th weekend seemed to be a worrisome unknown, so we'll see.
> Please be sure to post a new graph in, say, a month.*





DannyTS said:


> Didn't some also suspect that the end of the lock downs would bring a disaster of epic proportions?
> *I just do not see it in the graph above.*





jme said:


> It's because the graph stops on July 4th. You're seeing trends, and granted, viruses in the past have followed trends as they progress,
> but occasionally trends don't work out. So it's yet unknown in my book. Too many variables, including human behavior of late.
> At the moment (and especially July 4th weekend, here and abroad, like London) the world is going insane
> with "no fear & no personal responsibility", and that WILL have a definite effect on that graph.
> ...





*TODAY'S NEWS, JULY 12, 2020*:

*USA sets record for new covid cases third day in row at over 69,000...
DEATHS CLIMB AGAIN...
Long-expected turn for worse...
Doc warns will suffer 'tremendous' fatalities if no relocks...
Pandemic will last 2 years and change American way of life?
Military's cases growing at TWICE the nationwide rate...
CLAIM: Droplets can hang in air for hour...
Patient in 30s dies after attending virus party: 'I thought this was hoax'...
At fraternities, an alarming spike...
Army sending medical task force to Houston...*

It's only been 6 days since you posted that graph.
Absolutely DON'T wish to see the awful graph coming in a month, but given the changes since July 6th,
how do you "see it" shaping up now? 

Some jokingly mused that this whole ordeal would be over "in two weeks".  I didn't find that too funny.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

jme said:


> View attachment 23494
> 
> 
> It's only been 6 days since you posted that graph.
> ...



I do not have the graph yet about the coming month  but I am glad to show the updated one. I still do not see the apocalypse, if that is the question.

*

*




US is also testing a lot more than in the past so a lot more deaths are being recorded *with *Covid and from Covid.

*

*


----------



## jme (Jul 12, 2020)

@ DannyTS.......I am so hoping you are right, but afraid we'll have some rough times (and graphs) before that transpires.
I do see the slight uptick at the end of the graph, going totally against the previous trend ....hoping it's not what I think it is......


----------



## davidvel (Jul 12, 2020)

I know everyone has their view, glass half empty or full, but did anyone think we could stay locked down indefinitely, or that we would not have some upturn in cases and deaths if we began reopening?


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 12, 2020)

Tuggers have been complaining that there are too many coronavirus threads. Perhaps we could use this thread for all related posts? Maybe we could change the title so it says “Post all coronavirus information here”?


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 12, 2020)

*bluehende, *sorry you misunderstood, sent you a PM.


----------



## Brett (Jul 12, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I do not have the graph yet about the coming month  but I am glad to show the updated one. I still do not see the *apocalypse,* if that is the question.
> US is also testing a lot more than in the past so a lot more deaths are being recorded *with *Covid and from Covid.





the *apocalypse* is not here .....( yet )

July 12   2020





*https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/07/10/coronavirus-florida-cases-covid-19-latest-data-update/*


----------



## SmithOp (Jul 12, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Tuggers have been complaining that there are too many coronavirus threads. Perhaps we could use this thread for all related posts? Maybe we could change the title so it says “Post all coronavirus information here”?



Oh, you mean like this one that everyone has conveniently ignored?










						Please post all Coronavirus/Vistana discussions in this thread - thank you!
					

I've seen the thread and are in similar situation regarding cancellation of trip next month.  To-date, has anyone had an interaction with Vistana and/or been approved or denied the ability to cancel, pay the fee, but not have the Options restricted?  I understand the fee ... but if I cancel I...




					tugbbs.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


----------



## Makai Guy (Jul 12, 2020)

There has been entirely too much personal criticism directed at other posters in this thread.  I've looked at trying to weed it out, but it is so entrenched, especially when carried over into multiple quotes of previous posts,  that this is impossible without destroying the entire flow of the thread.  Our board provides the capability of having private conversations between individuals.  Please use it when you are tempted to criticize and insult each other.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 12, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Touching comments. Source?



This was publicly posted on social media by an acquaintance. 

As you know, whenever I quote an article I always always always post a link. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 12, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> Oh, you mean like this one that everyone has conveniently ignored?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That thread is for Vistana. I was thinking this thread could be for all coronavirus discussions on the data and numbers so we do not start a bunch of new threads. It is better now and I see more Tuggers talking about time sharing again but there was a point when almost every thread was about coronavirus.

Also, to everyone in the thread, please keep the criticisms and personal insults out of the discussion. It is possible to discuss/debate in a kind way.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

Brett said:


> the *apocalypse* is not here .....( yet )
> 
> July 12   2020
> 
> ...


The media likes the shock headlines but US is testing 3-4 times more now than a couple of months ago. Also the average positive is a lot younger now. The deaths chart does not support the Apocalypse mantra. 


To put things in context, so far New York registered 32400 deaths, Florida 4242. Florida registered 37 more deaths today than NY. At this pace, they need 760 days to get to where NY  is, assuming no second wave in NY.


----------



## Makai Guy (Jul 12, 2020)

Or perhaps we should just classify all Coronavirus posts not directly related to timesharing to be contentious social isses and ban them all.  BBS staff is burning out trying to ride herd on all the personal comments, political slants, battling "experts", bruised egos, intolerance of others' views, constant complaints, continual need to get in the last word, and reported posts that this topic entails.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 12, 2020)

Makai Guy said:


> Or perhaps we should just classify all Coronavirus posts not directly related to timesharing to be contentious social isses and ban them all. BBS staff is burning out trying to ride herd on all the personal comments, political slants, battling "experts", bruised egos, intolerance of others' views, constant complaints, continual need to get in the last word, and reported posts that this topic entails.



Please do not ban all C19 threads.

For myself, I read updates from many sources and yet I still gain insight into new articles and perspective from the posts on TUG. This is most especially true from those with whom I disagree. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 12, 2020)

Makai Guy said:


> Or perhaps we should just classify all Coronavirus posts not directly related to timesharing to be contentious social isses and ban them all.  BBS staff is burning out trying to ride herd on all the personal comments, political slants, battling "experts", bruised egos, intolerance of others' views, constant complaints, continual need to get in the last word, and reported posts that this topic entails.



That is a possible idea but I like reading the Coronavirus data. Sometimes I learn something new. It is a very important topic right now so I would hate for it to be off limits. I suggested that perhaps we could limit all coronavirus discussions about data and charts to this thread. Would that work better?


----------



## oneohana (Jul 12, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> From a Los Angeles nurse:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is one nurses experience. Do you know what hospital they work at? My wife is a RN and we are thankful that this is not the case at her hospital or sister hospital.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 12, 2020)

oneohana said:


> This is one nurses experience. Do you know what hospital they work at? My wife is a RN and we are thankful that this is not the case at her hospital or sister hospital.



I’m sure she would prefer it not be mentioned. Otherwise, I would have posted much more info. I thought the message alone would be sufficient to share. At this point, it’s conceivable this could have been sent from a number of hospitals in a number of cities in America. I’m reading similar horror stories out of Texas.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ken555 (Jul 12, 2020)

I found this article quite interesting and I suspect many of you will, as well, especially since this applies to many of us (as proven in this thread). 

Four Ways to Track the Spread of Coronavirus—and Why None of Them Is Perfect
Different metrics reveal different facets of the state of the pandemic









						Four ways to track the spread of coronavirus—and why none of them is perfect — The Wall Street Journal
					

No single statistic captures the full picture of the coronavirus crisis. But understanding what each one can and can’t reveal can paint a picture about pandemic’s trajectory.




					apple.news
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ken555 (Jul 12, 2020)

Spain's coronavirus antibodies study adds evidence against herd immunity



> Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.











						Spain's coronavirus antibodies study adds evidence against herd immunity — CNN
					

Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.




					apple.news
				




Lancet study: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext


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## silentg (Jul 12, 2020)

I have a Corona Virus travel related question. Have you stayed at a timeshare, hotel, campground or other vacation spot since the Corona Virus? We are thinking of going to a Holiday Inn just overnight to visit friends  moving to the Villages. My husband thinks it’s too risky, we have stayed home mostly since March except for Dr visits and social distancing very few times. If you’ve traveled just a bit, did it turn out ok?


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## Cornell (Jul 12, 2020)

silentg said:


> I have a Corona Virus travel related question. Have you stayed at a timeshare, hotel, campground or other vacation spot since the Corona Virus? We are thinking of going to a Holiday Inn just overnight to visit friends  moving to the Villages. My husband thinks it’s too risky, we have stayed home mostly since March except for Dr visits and social distancing very few times. If you’ve traveled just a bit, did it turn out ok?


I have and all good!  But full disclosure -- I am low risk.  

I think it's easy to travel , with some good planning, to avoid crowds and situations that might concern you.  Plenty of places off the beaten path that are low-key. 

For me, the change of scenery & the feeling of normalcy has done wonders for my mental health.


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Spain's coronavirus antibodies study adds evidence against herd immunity
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Very interesting thread about herd immunity started by Richard









						The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for Covid-19
					

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for Covid-19.   https://www.wired.com/story/the-tricky-math-of-herd-immunity-for-covid-19/    Richard




					tugbbs.com


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

silentg said:


> I have a Corona Virus travel related question. Have you stayed at a timeshare, hotel, campground or other vacation spot since the Corona Virus? We are thinking of going to a Holiday Inn just overnight to visit friends  moving to the Villages. My husband thinks it’s too risky, we have stayed home mostly since March except for Dr visits and social distancing very few times. If you’ve traveled just a bit, did it turn out ok?


We went for a week to a mountain resort, driving distance. We had a unit  in a small villa with a separate entrance. We biked, we hiked, we went to the pool several times and we had ample space for social distancing. Very little interaction with the reception. No mid week cleaning. We went to a restaurant once, we cooked  in the unit the rest of the time. We brought most of the food from home but we went grocery shopping once. We thought it was  not very different than staying home in terms of risk and the experience was great, we felt "alive" again.


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## oneohana (Jul 12, 2020)

silentg said:


> I have a Corona Virus travel related question. Have you stayed at a timeshare, hotel, campground or other vacation spot since the Corona Virus? We are thinking of going to a Holiday Inn just overnight to visit friends  moving to the Villages. My husband thinks it’s too risky, we have stayed home mostly since March except for Dr visits and social distancing very few times. If you’ve traveled just a bit, did it turn out ok?


We have stayed 5 weeks so far in ts and have 5 more before the summer ends. Basically we use it as our Safer at Home base. We are careful to social distance wherever we go and we are confident in our ppe. You just need to be wise. 
We mostly go locally, but have gone as far as Colorado. We drive straight through only stopping for bathroom breaks and food. When we were at Sheraton Steamboat Springs, we were the only ts people there. They allowed the workers doing the renovations to stay there, but we were the only ones in our tower. I even got an email while we were there saying that the timeshare was closed. Had to confirm with the front desk that we were allowed to stay for our second week.
My thought is that even though most things are still closed down, we see a different set of walls.


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## "Roger" (Jul 12, 2020)

Makai Guy said:


> Or perhaps we should just classify all Coronavirus posts not directly related to timesharing to be contentious social isses and ban them all.  BBS staff is burning out trying to ride herd on all the personal comments, political slants, battling "experts", bruised egos, intolerance of others' views, constant complaints, continual need to get in the last word, and reported posts that this topic entails.


Like others, I do learn from this board. It has also been good for me to see how some others think (although, I confess, at times, to being appalled). At the same time, I realize the strain it has put the moderators under (for the reasons mentioned in the quote). I really feel for you people.

My suggestion is that people only be allowed to make a single post per day on this (or some other) coronavirus thread. This would force posters to think carefully about what they think is most important and not try to endlessly argue over every little point. They would only say it once, not six times within an hour. Surprisingly, they would also learn to be more succinct. (I would guess that there will be occasions when someone posts eighteen responses to what was said the previous day, fifteen links to try and back up their point of view, ten links to new topics, etc.) It won't take long before they realize that no one will bother reading threads like that. A good English teacher will emphasize the importance of being focused and precise, not rambling.

From the moderators' point of view, this would help them make decisions. One post per day, cut and dry.

Why not give this a try? I think it would really, really help.


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## Panina (Jul 12, 2020)

Makai Guy said:


> Or perhaps we should just classify all Coronavirus posts not directly related to timesharing to be contentious social isses and ban them all.  BBS staff is burning out trying to ride herd on all the personal comments, political slants, battling "experts", bruised egos, intolerance of others' views, constant complaints, continual need to get in the last word, and reported posts that this topic entails.


I feel the articles are informative.  Please don’t let the few ruin it for the rest of us.  The few should have their posts removed or privileges revoked. Political slants and personal attacks have no place on tug.


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## TravelTime (Jul 12, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> Like others, I do learn from this board. It has also been good for me to see how some others think (although, I confess, at times, to being appalled). At the same time, I realize the strain it has put the moderators under (for the reasons mentioned in the quote). I really feel for you people.
> 
> My suggestion is that people only be allowed to make a single post per day on this (or some other) coronavirus thread. This would force posters to think carefully about what they think is most important and not try to endlessly argue over every little point. They would only say it once, not six times within an hour. Surprisingly, they would also learn to be more succinct. (I would guess that there will be occasions when someone posts eighteen responses to what was said the previous day, fifteen links to try and back up their point of view, ten links to new topics, etc.) It won't take long before they realize that no one will bother reading threads like that. A good English teacher will emphasize the importance of being focused and precise, not rambling.
> 
> ...



I agree with making the posts more succinct and precise. Also break the content into paragraphs so it is easier to read. Some of the posts are so long that I skip over them. Perhaps posters could summarize the content so those of us with a short attention span could get the main point and then decide if we want to read the rest of a long post.


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## rapmarks (Jul 12, 2020)

Not enough is said about the emotional effect the last five months have had on people
the police scanner keeps getting calls about fights breaking out at resorts and waterparks.
a ten your old local girl committed suicide.
people bicker on tug.


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## bluehende (Jul 12, 2020)

This was posted today by my cousin who is a nurse.  She was a navy nurse for 23 yrs.  She currently is taking care of her husband who was intubated over 100 days ago.  He is currently at home off the ventilator in a permanent vegetative state under hospice.  The words state my position very well.


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

bluehende said:


> This was posted today by my cousin who is a nurse.  She was a navy nurse for 23 yrs.  She currently is taking care of her husband who was intubated over 100 days ago.  He is currently at home off the ventilator in a permanent vegetative state under hospice.  The words state my position very well.
> 
> View attachment 23516


There you go, shaming others.  He caught the virus at the beginning of April? Under what circumstances when everything was shut down? What city? How careful was he at the time? What was his health condition before this happened? How old is he? Did she catch the virus as well? Who exactly is she blaming? You are sharing her point of view so you must know. 

With that being said, I wish your cousin and her husband the best, she must be going through a very hard time.


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## klpca (Jul 12, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> There you go, shaming others.  He caught the virus at the beginning of April? Under what circumstances when everything was shut down? What city? How careful was he at the time? What was his health condition before this happened? How old is he? Did she catch the virus as well? Who exactly is she blaming? You are sharing her point of view so you must know.
> 
> With that being said, I wish your cousin and her husband the best, she must be going through a very hard time.


Honestly what is your point?  Because you sound very cold hearted. Why do you need to know the details? Do you think it's a made up story? I'm honestly trying to understand. You feel that is about shaming and I'm not sure why. This is someone's thoughts and emotions after having to live through a nightmare not of their making. Do you feel the same way when someone is battling cancer and they and their caregivers are fatigued? Do they have to prove that their exhaustion and frustration are worthy? Have a bit of compassion.


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

klpca said:


> You feel that is about shaming and I'm not sure why.


Because she writes that she is carrying the weight of other's* irresponsibility*


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## klpca (Jul 12, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Because she writes that she is carrying the weight of other's* irresponsibility*


Her opinion. Not a statement of fact. Just ignore it if you don't like it.


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## amycurl (Jul 12, 2020)

I think the level of risk involved with a hotel stay is relatively low (and has been agreed to as such in many of the graphs shared here, I believe.) *However*, I would seriously look at the rate of cases in the area you want to stay and your personal vulnerability. I would note that Cornell did some of her travel to a low-population area before the recent rise in cases, to an area that had a very low case rate at the time of her travel. Danny lives in Canada, I believe, and I assume he traveled within that country, since Canada has closed their boarder with the US, precisely because their case rate and level of community spread is much lower than what we have here currently in the US.

You can look up the positivity (percentage of tests coming back positive) for the county you want to stay in. In some cases, if it is lower than the one you live in, it might be a pretty safe bet for a short stay (esp. if you can eat in the room/get takeout/eat outside somewhere/avoid long elevator rides with strangers.) Percentage of positive tests is a good (not perfect, certainly) way of tracking community spread. A great percentage is under 5%, 5-10% is pretty good, above 20% is kind of devastating (I believe AZ was at around 25% the last time I checked.) Even with a record number of positive cases yesterday, NC is back around 10%...hopefully, we'll be lower again soon.


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

klpca said:


> Her opinion. Not a statement of fact. Just ignore it of you don't like it.



The comment was posted on FB and re-posted here for that very reason, to say that "some are  carrying the weight of other's* irresponsibility", *and that was just the beginning. Bluehende wrote: "her words state my *position *as well". We are not being asked to sympathize with a family in a very difficult situation, instead  the situation  is being used to make a point IMO. If that is the case, I would like to understand more and my questions were very pertinent I believe. We can no longer make a comment without being personally attacked ("cold hearted"). Asking questions was so last century.


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## TravelTime (Jul 12, 2020)

bluehende said:


> This was posted today by my cousin who is a nurse.  She was a navy nurse for 23 yrs.  She currently is taking care of her husband who was intubated over 100 days ago.  He is currently at home off the ventilator in a permanent vegetative state under hospice.  The words state my position very well.
> 
> View attachment 23516



The writing is poor. I do not understand the point.


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

U.S. COVID death rate by state 2022 | Statista
					

As of December 2022, Mississippi had the highest COVID death rate in the U.S., with 439 deaths per 100,000 population. Hawaii had the lowest death rate.




					www.statista.com


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## TravelTime (Jul 12, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> U.S. COVID death rate by state 2022 | Statista
> 
> 
> As of December 2022, Mississippi had the highest COVID death rate in the U.S., with 439 deaths per 100,000 population. Hawaii had the lowest death rate.
> ...



How does this compare to other countries? We know that each of our states is equivalent to a country in Europe.


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## bluehende (Jul 12, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> The writing is poor. I do not understand the point.


Edited to say

the point is that your actions can have decimating consequences for someone else and other people have to pick up the pieces of the havoc you have raised.


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## klpca (Jul 12, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> The comment was posted on FB and re-posted here for that very reason, to say that "some are  carrying the weight of other's* irresponsibility", *and that was just the beginning. Bluehende wrote: "her words state my *position *as well". We are not being asked to sympathize with a family in a very difficult situation, instead  the situation  is being used to make a point IMO. If that is the case, I would like to understand more and my questions were very pertinent I believe. We can no longer make a comment without being personally attacked ("cold hearted"). Asking questions was so last century.


Well I still have no idea what your original point was. If it is that you disagree with bluehende, then so be it. If it is something else, then I just don't see it. 

We haven't dealt with covid in our house but we have spent a fair amount of time dealing with cancer. I recognized the exhaustion in that post because being the primary caregiver of someone who is chronically ill for months saps every last molecule of energy out of your body. The questions that you asked about the person who wrote the post felt very familiar - what did they do to cause this? I ran into people who, during my husband's treatment, wanted to know what his diet had been? If he drank? Was he overweight? Did he eat meat? And others felt the need to ask "is it terminal?" (PSA to anyone reading - seriously don't ever ask that question. It is definitely the worst one. Just because one wonders about something does not mean that it is an appropriate question). Truth be told, my answer to them was always the same - "Why do you ask?" After all, anyone with half a brain can easily google the answers to any medical question that they might have. Unless one is personally involved, it really isn't anyone's business. 

My husband goes in this month for his quarterly cancer check up. We are hoping for good news, and to not be exposed to covid at the lab. Here's hoping that everyone has a mask on.


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> How does this compare to other countries? We know that each of our states is equivalent to a country in Europe.


That is a good question. I do not find a comparison US states/other countries but I found this on the same site. If you combine the two, you will see that New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island are worse than Belgium that is at the top of the global list. 









						COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista
					

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.




					www.statista.com


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

klpca said:


> Well I still have no idea what your original point was. If it is that you disagree with bluehende, then so be it. If it is something else, then I just don't see it.
> 
> We haven't dealt with covid in our house but we have spent a fair amount of time dealing with cancer. I recognized the exhaustion in that post because being the primary caregiver of someone who is chronically ill for months saps every last molecule of energy out of your body. The questions that you asked about the person who wrote the post felt very familiar - what did they do to cause this? I ran into people who, during my husband's treatment, wanted to know what his diet had been? If he drank? Was he overweight? Did he eat meat? And others felt the need to ask "is it terminal?" (PSA to anyone reading - seriously don't ever ask that question. It is definitely the worst one. Just because one wonders about something does not mean that it is an appropriate question). Truth be told, my answer to them was always the same - "Why do you ask?" After all, anyone with half a brain can easily google the answers to any medical question that they might have. Unless one is personally involved, it really isn't anyone's business.
> 
> My husband goes in this month for his quarterly cancer check up. We are hoping for good news, and to not be exposed to covid at the lab. Here's hoping that everyone has a mask on.


Skillful diversion, a diversion nonetheless. I asked in a context where Bluehende seemed to believe other people are responsible for their very unfortunate situation and I am moderately curious of the circumstances.  Your situation is very different, you did not run into people and blamed them for your husband's illness, they started to ask those questions. 

By the way, when my dad passed away, a couple of his old friends he had not seen in a while asked me details that are similar to what you were asked. I found it a bit odd but it did not really bother me. I did not know how to interpret it. Were they just trying to  make conversation? These situations are always awkward regardless of what someone says. Where they trying to gather information to avoid similar mistakes? I did not really know at the time, I do not know now and I do not really care. They were old friends of my dad's and I did not suspect them of any ill intend. 

And yes, I accept your apologies for saying I am cold hearted and that I lack compassion


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

By the way @TravelTime , SWEDEN would be number 16 on a combined list, many countries and states have done much worse than them.


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## geist1223 (Jul 12, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> The comment was posted on FB and re-posted here for that very reason, to say that "some are  carrying the weight of other's* irresponsibility", *and that was just the beginning. Bluehende wrote: "her words state my *position *as well". We are not being asked to sympathize with a family in a very difficult situation, instead  the situation  is being used to make a point IMO. If that is the case, I would like to understand more and my questions were very pertinent I believe. We can no longer make a comment without being personally attacked ("cold hearted"). Asking questions was so last century.



Why did you find it essential that you post at all? You have joined my ignore list. What kind of human being are you?


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## cman (Jul 12, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> There you go, shaming others.  He caught the virus at the beginning of April? Under what circumstances when everything was shut down? What city? How careful was he at the time? What was his health condition before this happened? How old is he? Did she catch the virus as well? Who exactly is she blaming? You are sharing her point of view so you must know.
> 
> With that being said, I wish your cousin and her husband the best, she must be going through a very hard time.


That was totally uncalled for and inappropriate. The fact that you can't comprehend how it's inappropriate should concern you. But I'm sure I'm not the first person that has told you something similar. You Sir, have issues.


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## DannyTS (Jul 12, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Why did you find it essential that you post at all? *You have joined my ignore list*. *What kind of human being are you*?


And you thought it was a good idea to say something nice before that.


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## billymach4 (Jul 12, 2020)

This is just my opinion, feeling, prediction about this crisis.

The country is in a health care tailspin. At some level at the federal level either by a congressional veto proof legislative measure or Presidential order we will have to shut down hard again and remain shut. I don't see any way out of this since there is not any vaccine available.

I may be wrong but every day the data is not going in the right direction. At some point the system will break down again.


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## cman (Jul 13, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> This is just my opinion, feeling, prediction about this crisis.
> 
> The country is in a health care tailspin. At some level at the federal level either by a congressional veto proof legislative measure or Presidential order we will have to shut down hard again and remain shut. I don't see any way out of this since there is not any vaccine available.
> 
> I may be wrong but every day the data is not going in the right direction. At some point the system will break down again.


I thought the same thing, then I looked at the data a little closer. The huge spike in new cases that we saw the third week of June can be attributed to just a few counties in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California. There are more than 3,000 counties in the US, and most of the spikes that we're seeing come from about 20 of those counties. They're basically the counties that are home to the major metropolitan areas of their respective states. The rest of the country is seeing a slight rise, but nothing like the spike of the 20 counties that are driving the increase in new cases.

I guess my point is that we may be able to get a handle on this thing without a national shutdown. States may even to manage it without statewide shutdowns. Our past efforts failed due to a lack of competence. Hopefully we've learned from our mistakes and things will get better moving forward.


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## DannyTS (Jul 13, 2020)

cman said:


> That was totally uncalled for and inappropriate. The fact that you can't comprehend how it's inappropriate should concern you. But I'm sure I'm not the first person that has told you something similar. You Sir, have issues.


Yes, I have issues when somebody is trying to speculate personal problems to score cheap points. But the bigger problem I think is that some of the data I posted  is very inconvenient to your points of view (and a handful of others) . We chatted the other day about Sweden. You were very aggressive at the time, addressed me with "dude", you accused me of "manufacturing information" for saying that most of their deaths were concentrated in the nursing homes when they only had 45% in Stockholm. It was not a major point in my argument  (and the difference was not that big anyways) but your aggressive tone said it all. And you are accusing others of having issues!


Probably when you saw now that Sweden is only number 16 in the top of the worst countries/ states, that New York, New Jersey and others are doing 3 times worse you did not exactly have a soothing feeling and you decided to attack me personally about this.


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## cman (Jul 13, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Yes, I have issues when somebody is trying to speculate personal problems to score cheap points. But the bigger problem I think is that some of the data I posted  is very inconvenient to your points of view (and a handful of others) . We chatted the other day about Sweden. You were very aggressive at the time, addressed me with "dude", you accused me of "manufacturing information" for saying that most of their deaths were concentrated in the nursing homes when they only had 45% in Stockholm. It was not a major point in my argument  (and the difference was not that big anyways) but your aggressive tone said it all. And you are accusing others of having issues!
> 
> 
> Probably when you saw now that Sweden is only number 16 in the top of the worst countries/ states, that New York, New Jersey and others are doing 3 times worse you did not exactly had a soothing feeling and you decided to attack me personally about this.


I'm done with this. We have nothing further to discuss.


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## DannyTS (Jul 13, 2020)

Maybe I should post this in the Stay at Home Humor thread:

*NBC News Spent Weeks Reporting On A Contributor’s Journey Battling Coronavirus – But He Never Had It*










						NBC News Spent Weeks Reporting On A Contributor’s Journey Battling Coronavirus – But He Never Had It
					

NBC News spent weeks documenting its science contributor's battle with COVID-19, but now he says that he never had it.




					dailycaller.com


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## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

cman said:


> I thought the same thing, then I looked at the data a little closer. The huge spike in new cases that we saw the third week of June can be attributed to just a few counties in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California. There are more than 3,000 counties in the US, and most of the spikes that we're seeing come from about 20 of those counties. They're basically the counties that are home to the major metropolitan areas of their respective states. The rest of the country is seeing a slight rise, but nothing like the spike of the 20 counties that are driving the increase in new cases.
> 
> I guess my point is that we may be able to get a handle on this thing without a national shutdown. States may even to manage it without statewide shutdowns. Our past efforts failed due to a lack of competence. Hopefully we've learned from our mistakes and things will get better moving forward.


Well NY had no reported deaths yesterday. However I don't see the current leaders of the new Hot Spot states taking this as seriously as the NY, NJ, CT leadership. There is a complete poopy head leading FL.

If the Gov's of the heated states shut down now for 2 months then they will get this down. Otherwise they are leading their citizens off a cliff.


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## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

Listen up here. Answer simple question? How many of you personally know of a friend or relative that has died due to complications of COVID-19? How many of you know of a friend or relative that has contracted COVID-19? How many of you know of a friend or relative that is suffering from the after effects of COVID-19?


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## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Listen up here. Answer simple question? How many of you personally know of a friend or relative that has died due to complications of COVID-19? How many of you know of a friend or relative that has contracted COVID-19? How many of you know of a friend or relative that is suffering from the after effects of COVID-19?


I personally know of 5 or more deaths, 5 or more contracted cases, 5 or more after effects. No it is not prevalent in Bonneville County... Yet. But it will everywhere but it will change your life when it happens to you or your family or friend. Be respectful. Wear the mask. Simple way to prevent the spread. Nothing more nothing less.


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## cman (Jul 13, 2020)

Here's a little good news. There's light at the end of this tunnel.








						New York City reports zero COVID-19 deaths for first time since pandemic hit
					

New York City on Sunday reported zero new coronavirus deaths for the first time since early March, a milestone that comes as the virus spikes in other parts of the country.Preliminary health data f…




					thehill.com


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## cman (Jul 13, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Listen up here. Answer simple question? How many of you personally know of a friend or relative that has died due to complications of COVID-19? How many of you know of a friend or relative that has contracted COVID-19? How many of you know of a friend or relative that is suffering from the after effects of COVID-19?


I know of 1 that died, he was a high school classmate. I know of 4 that tested positive, all have either recovered or had only mild symptoms.


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## davidvel (Jul 13, 2020)

klpca said:


> Honestly what is your point?  Because you sound very cold hearted. Why do you need to know the details? Do you think it's a made up story? I'm honestly trying to understand. You feel that is about shaming and I'm not sure why. This is someone's thoughts and emotions after having to live through a nightmare not of their making. Do you feel the same way when someone is battling cancer and they and their caregivers are fatigued? Do they have to prove that their exhaustion and frustration are worthy? Have a bit of compassion.


I think his point, maybe not too tactfully made, is that bluehende posted about a horrible situation, her cousin's husband's dying,  as a result of contracting COVID.  (The latter point is actually unstated, but presumed from the subsequent quote.)

She then includes a post from another that she agreed with ("state(s) my position very well"), which essentially said:

- (unknown) others' irresponsibility led to his pending death (hospice);
- that (unknown) people lack social responsibility and feel justified in their carelessness, that presumably led to his pending death; 
- the efforts of (front line workers and family?) are devalued by those same careless people;
- and those same people are laughing at  (front line workers and family?) who are suffering, because those people are not experiencing the same things first hand.

So Bluhende interjected her family's situation into this public board, while agreeing with some pretty broad generalized aspersions, none of which anyone here knows have anything to do with her cousin's family's impending death.  

So my guess is DannyTS felt in some way it was an attack on him, based on his comments in this thread, and asked for some justifications or background facts as to how others (or he?) callously caused her cousin's impending death, and were laughing about all along the way. 

That's just a guess though.


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## cman (Jul 13, 2020)

More good news.








						New Zealand lifts all Covid restrictions, declaring the nation virus-free
					

PM Jacinda Ardern says she "did a little dance" as it was confirmed NZ had no active virus cases.



					www.bbc.com


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## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

cman said:


> Here's a little good news. There's light at the end of this tunnel.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Problem is no other leadership is willing to take the lead like NY, NJ, CT. The population in this area gets it. They wear masks and keep their distance. Bars are not open either. Why can't the rest of the country follow this example after NY went thru hell and back. Additionally most public gatherings are still off limits.


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## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

California, Texas, Florida will take the lead in COVID-19 cases edging out NY by end of July. That does not make me fell better at all. 









						Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
					

A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.



					www.nytimes.com


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## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

CA, TX, AZ, FL shut down hard for 3 months then I would have faith.


----------



## cman (Jul 13, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> The population Problem is no other leadership is willing to take the lead like NY, NJ, CT. in this area gets it. They wear masks and keep their distance. Bars are not open either. Why can't the rest of the country follow this example after NY went thru hell and back. Additionally most public gatherings are still off limits.


The short answer to your question is that the body count TX, FL and AZ just isn't high enough yet. When the results of the virus hit home, people will change their behavior. As of now, the increase in deaths have not followed the increase in new cases. Hopefully it stays that way, but until then, I doubt you'll see much of a change in individual behavior or a proactive political response.


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## cman (Jul 13, 2020)

This is not good news. I know Hawaii was considering opening to tourists with a negative C19 test within 72 hours of departure. There's no way I can meet that requirement in my area.
*Long delays in getting test results hobble coronavirus response*



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/long-delays-in-getting-test-results-hobble-coronavirus-response/2020/07/12/d32f7fa8-c1fe-11ea-b4f6-cb39cd8940fb_story.html


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## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

cman said:


> The short answer to your question is that the body count TX, FL and AZ just isn't high enough yet. When the results of the virus hit home, people will change their behavior. As of now, the increase in deaths have not followed the increase in new cases. Hopefully it stays that way, but until then, I doubt you'll see much of a change in individual behavior or a proactive political response.



Remember this fact. Deaths are a lagging indicator. When the health care systems get stretched and stressed the mortality will follow.


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## Ken555 (Jul 13, 2020)

cman said:


> This is not good news. I know Hawaii was considering opening to tourists with a negative C19 test within 72 hours of departure. There's no way I can meet that requirement in my area.
> *Long delays in getting test results hobble coronavirus response*
> 
> 
> ...



Yup. We *still* don’t have enough supplies. It’s friggin unbelievable.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Panina (Jul 13, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Problem is no other leadership is willing to take the lead like NY, NJ, CT. The population in this area gets it. They wear masks and keep their distance. Bars are not open either. Why can't the rest of the country follow this example after NY went thru hell and back. Additionally most public gatherings are still off limits.


I have many friends and family that live in NY.  After all they went through many are not wearing masks.


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## pedro47 (Jul 13, 2020)

Opinion, can an infective adult give a child between the ages of 5 -15 Covid-19?


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## geekette (Jul 13, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Opinion, can an infective adult give a child between the ages of 5 -15 Covid-19?


Yes.   vice versa as well.


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## Brett (Jul 13, 2020)

geekette said:


> Yes.   vice versa as well.



definitely the case with the flu virus


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## WinniWoman (Jul 13, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Listen up here. Answer simple question? How many of you personally know of a friend or relative that has died due to complications of COVID-19? How many of you know of a friend or relative that has contracted COVID-19? How many of you know of a friend or relative that is suffering from the after effects of COVID-19?



My husband's 2 cousins and their wives in Queens, NY contracted it. One wife died as she had colon cancer and it did her in.

My cousin and her husband both got it.In their 70's.  For him it was bad but he did not need to be hospitalized though he did go to the ER at first. She had it milder and being a nurse she took care of him at home. Took him awhile to recover.

Friends of ours, their son-in-law, a cop, got it and then his pregnant wife got it. Both young and recovered fine.

A neighbor's son tested positive with it- asymptomatic. Did not live with them- lived in another state but he visited and now they are being tested. The son's wife, who works at John Hopkins, did not get it - tested negative.

No lingering after effects.


----------



## beejaybeeohio (Jul 13, 2020)

silentg said:


> I have a Corona Virus travel related question. Have you stayed at a timeshare, hotel, campground or other vacation spot since the Corona Virus? We are thinking of going to a Holiday Inn just overnight to visit friends  moving to the Villages. My husband thinks it’s too risky, we have stayed home mostly since March except for Dr visits and social distancing very few times. If you’ve traveled just a bit, did it turn out ok?



We returned on 7/4 from what was to be a two-week trip. Our 1st week was at Sandcastle Village II in New Bern NC. Driving from the Cleveland area we spent a night enroute at a Hampton in Lexington VA. This hotel had stickers on the door and remote indicating it had been sanitzed. The timeshare was generally clean & bug-free but quirky & dated. We golfed, hiked and ate only at restaurants with outdoor seating.

Unfortunately, our planned 2nd week to visit DD & family in SC was aborted. My DD called while we were in the t/s to let us know that middle college-age grandson who is Type 1 had come home from his job with a fever and chills and wouldn't get covid results for several days. We decided to head home. Results were +.

Fortunately, our grandson appears over the hump. His fever never rose above 100.3 and was gone after a day. He remained very fatigued and lost his sense of taste for over a week. He will be out of quarantine tomorrow. Youngest GS, also Type 1, is -. His room is far from his brother's and their schedules were opposite. Oldest GS is living on his own. DD is awaiting test results and DSiL is checked for fever daily at his workplace. The county health dept. placed a Notice of Infection on their front door.

To return to silentg's original query, DH & I stayed at a Hampton in Wytheville VA on our way home. That hotel did not have the stickers.
As to whether to travel or not, I think, but could be wrong, that if you take the recommended precautions of masks, social distancing and frequent hand cleaning you should be ok despite FL being a current hotspot.


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## bluehende (Jul 13, 2020)

davidvel said:


> I think his point, maybe not too tactfully made, is that bluehende posted about a horrible situation, her cousin's husband's dying,  as a result of contracting COVID.  (The latter point is actually unstated, but presumed from the subsequent quote.)
> 
> She then includes a post from another that she agreed with ("state(s) my position very well"), which essentially said:
> 
> ...


I think you hit it very well.  My only slight change would be from the focus of blame to compassion for nurses in particular.  I did not want to get into a lot of details but did mention she was a nurse to try and imply that.  Almost all of her public posts have been about 2 things.  The lack of mask wearing when she is out and the admiration for the nursing staffs she has encountered.  I am sure this is due to the her being a navy nurse for 23 yrs and her current profession as a nursing professor.  Many of her posts have been about the compassion she has received from former students.  While I cannot absolutely testify to her mindset on blame I have never heard a word of that from her.


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## bbodb1 (Jul 13, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Well NY had no reported deaths yesterday. However I don't see the current leaders of the new Hot Spot states taking this as seriously as the NY, NJ, CT leadership. *There is a complete poopy head leading FL*.
> 
> If the Gov's of the heated states shut down now for 2 months then they will get this down. Otherwise they are leading their citizens off a cliff.



Well, good morning Mr. Potty Mouth!






(_and just to be clear, Billy you made me laugh this morning because I can hear a *lot* of my student's voices in my head using those exact words!) _


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## geist1223 (Jul 13, 2020)

CDC's 'best estimate' is 40 percent COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic
					

In updated guidance, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said its "best estimate" is that 40 percent of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic.




					www.foxnews.com


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## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Well, good morning Mr. Potty Mouth!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Glad it made you laugh! My fingers are restricted from typing my true feelings due to my respect for the etiquette and rules here and elsewhere on the net.


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## bbodb1 (Jul 13, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Glad it made you laugh! My fingers are restricted from typing my true feelings due to my respect for the etiquette and rules here and elsewhere on the net.



I understand. 

One thing for sure - few governors have distinguished themselves during COVID-19 but DeSantis, Cuomo, Newsom, and Ducey are likely seeing the end of their political careers.

If ever there were a time for outsiders to break into politics, this is it.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 13, 2020)

I mentioned Medcrams on Youtube before. I have been reviewing some of them this morning. (The temperature hit 100 F in my back yard at 10:17 AM this morning, so inside work!)

Here are ones to watch:

#59
#74
#83
#92
#93
#94 (most current today)

(Note: These are by a professional ER Doctor, for other medical professionals. If you have a good background in Micro/molecular Biology and Biochemistry you can follow it pretty easily. A general layperson may get confused a bit.)


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## TravelTime (Jul 13, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I understand.
> 
> One thing for sure - few governors have distinguished themselves during COVID-19 but DeSantis, Cuomo, Newsom, and Ducey are likely seeing the end of their political careers.
> 
> If ever there were a time for outsiders to break into politics, this is it.



I thought the consensus was that Cuomo has done a good job handling New York. Is that not the popular belief?


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## Brett (Jul 13, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I thought the consensus was that Cuomo has done a good job handling New York. Is that not the popular belief?



probably, but if one is of the opposite political party then Gov. Cuomo (and his brother) are not so popular


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## Ken555 (Jul 13, 2020)

Brett said:


> probably, but if one is of the opposite political party then Gov. Cuomo (and his brother) are not so popular



Most Governors failed. Not sure it’s worth debating it just yet...after all, this mess isn’t over yet. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## WVBaker (Jul 13, 2020)

Brett said:


> probably, but if one is of the opposite political party then Gov. Cuomo (and his brother) are not so popular



Deleted


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## Ken555 (Jul 13, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Is it just to difficult to not pull this into the political arena?



Obviously. But why did you quote Brett when someone else started this theme? Hmm...your bias is showing.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## jme (Jul 13, 2020)

CDC's 'best estimate' is 40 percent COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic.
A person with COVID-19 is still 'likely to infect' 2.5 other people.









						CDC's 'best estimate' is 40 percent COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic
					

In updated guidance, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said its "best estimate" is that 40 percent of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic.




					www.foxnews.com


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## bbodb1 (Jul 13, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I thought the consensus was that Cuomo has done a good job handling New York. Is that not the popular belief?


Given how New York was one of the initial COVID-19 flashpoints, it was also slow to deal with school closures, and how the state initially handled communal type settings (including putting COVID-19 patients back into those communal settings) and still has more deaths than any state - *NO *New York did not do good job.

And, by extension, Cuomo did not do a good job.


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## WVBaker (Jul 13, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Obviously. But why did you quote Brett when someone else started this theme? Hmm...your bias is showing.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



Deleted


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## WVBaker (Jul 13, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Given how New York was one of the initial COVID-19 flashpoints, it was also slow to deal with school closures, and how the state initially handled communal type settings (including putting COVID-19 patients back into those communal settings) and still has more deaths than any state - *NO *New York did not do good job.
> 
> And, by extension, Cuomo did not do a good job.


Deleted


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## Ken555 (Jul 13, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> That's quite humorous. Seems as though your bias is showing. Give it a rest and move on.



Dude, you need to learn how to be even a little objective. Your posts are now simply laughable. Criticize Brett for responding to a theme started by someone else? C’mon. At least pretend that you care about objectivity. 


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## Ken555 (Jul 13, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Bazinga !



Now you encourage more posts about politics after you criticized it? You’re a hypocrite.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## WVBaker (Jul 13, 2020)

Deleted


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## WVBaker (Jul 13, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Now you encourage more posts about politics after you criticized it? You’re a hypocrite.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



Deleted


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## Luanne (Jul 13, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Just so we are very clear Ken. Personally, Cuomo has, and continues to not care about anyone, but himself, IMHO. That has nothing to do with politics and let me add, I don't care what affiliation he is.


So, if I said the same about another person in office, that wouldn't be considered political?  Come on.


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## DannyTS (Jul 13, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Now you encourage more posts about politics after you criticized it? You’re a hypocrite.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


There is only one opinion that matters, Ken's.

If things do not go his way, the name calling starts. Why others approve and "like" such comments is rather puzzling to me but I guess this is how mob censureship works.


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## travelpager (Jul 13, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Given how New York was one of the initial COVID-19 flashpoints, it was also slow to deal with school closures, and how the state initially handled communal type settings (including putting COVID-19 patients back into those communal settings) and still has more deaths than any state - *NO *New York did not do good job.
> 
> And, by extension, Cuomo did not do a good job.



Yours is an interesting perspective. As a resident of the great state of *Texas*, I offer only that a number of my fellow citizens look upon NY's example of state leadership with absolute, unadulterated envy, even as we field emails and texts from friends around the world,_ including New York_, expressing bewilderment and alarm at the latest news ("Wasn't anyone paying attention?"). *E N V Y*, I tell you. Put that kind of "incompetence" in a bottle and I'll take a case ... if not a truckload.  Heck, for a delivery like that, I'd even consider leaving my house.


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## WVBaker (Jul 13, 2020)

Luanne said:


> So, if I said the same about another person in office, that wouldn't be considered political?  Come on.



Tell you what, if my personal opinion about Cuomo bothers you, I'll delete it. It's solely my opinion based on how a relative who happens to be a New York State Police Officer, was treated after being injured on the job. But, I wouldn't want to upset anyone, in any way who believes that opinion has anything to do with politics.


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## bbodb1 (Jul 13, 2020)

travelpager said:


> Yours is an interesting perspective. As a resident of the great state of Texas, I offer only that a number of my fellow citizens look upon NY's example of state leadership with absolute, unadulterated envy, even as we field emails and texts from friends around the world expressing bewilderment and alarm at the latest news. *E N V Y*, I tell you. Put that kind of "incompetence" in a bottle and I'll take a case ... if not a truckload.  Heck, for a delivery like that, I'd even consider leaving my house.


I am curious if you would care to provide a bit more detail as to what you perceive as envious on Cuomo 's performance.


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## Ken555 (Jul 13, 2020)

Enough!

No more posts about Governors. 

Do you want to have this thread closed? 

Just... stop. /end


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## Luanne (Jul 13, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Tell you what, if my personal opinion about Cuomo bothers you, I'll delete it. It's solely my opinion based on how a relative who happens to be a New York State Police Officer, was treated after being injured on the job. But, I wouldn't want to upset anyone, in any way who believes that opinion has anything to do with politics.


Your comment about Cuomo didn't bother me.  We are all entitled to our own opinions. Whether we choose to share them here or not is up to us.  What "bothered" me was this part:  "That has nothing to do with politics and let me add, I don't care what affiliation he is."  If I had used that same statement, this one: "Personally, Cuomo has, and continues to not care about anyone, but himself, IMHO." and used another politician, or someone in office, name I would have been accused of the statement being political.  But if you make it, it's not.


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## DannyTS (Jul 13, 2020)

The 3 states initially mentioned are responsible for 45% of all deaths in the US. Unless the comment was sarcastic, I do not understand why would be disputing anything concerning their leadership.
On the other hand California has done a very decent job if you look at the total number of deaths. I am not sure what else the governor should have done but I will leave it to those that live there and that follow it much closer than me.


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## geekette (Jul 13, 2020)

Part of the problem is that we elected politicians then somehow expected all of them to become infectious disease safety experts.  There is no consistently because there is no central plan.


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## travelpager (Jul 13, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I am curious if you would care to provide a bit more detail as to what you perceive as envious on Cuomo 's performance.



Gladly. Actions implemented at the state and local level indicate that state leadership opted to believe that the virus existed (i.e., was not a hoax) and posed a true risk to public health.  I don't necessarily speak to the speed with which actions were implemented given that (1) NY was one of several states that had to forge a regional response to a health emergency that threatened the country/world, (2) did so despite or amidst messages from national leadership that (a) understated the seriousness of the situation, (b) declined to exercise certain available options that would have facilitated the availability of PPE on a broader, faster and more affordable basis, or else (c) said, "good luck with all that, NY" and (3) I reside in a state where leadership adopted an approach quite contrary to that seen in NY - over recommendations of public health officials (and biology teachers) at every level around the world  (not just WHO - I mean folks with boots on the ground in Italy, Spain, etc.) that can be characterized as very nearly opposite to that demonstrated in New York and find the end results (in terms of public health management) are hollering for themselves, literally making headlines around the world.  Because of how I am wired, I am always trying to check my perspective and/or challenge bases for my opinions. No matter how I view the current situation, the oh-well-gambled-and-lost-win-some-lose-some angle, the nobody-tells-TX-what-to-do angle, the I-like-my-guy-and/or-the-economy-better-than-science-so-I'll-take-reopen-now-for-$500-Alex angle, the my-guy-says-this-will-all-go-away-and-evangelists-like-him-so-let's-head-thataway angle, the I-heard-the-yelling-from-officials-in-the-six-largest-counties-but-I-didn't-know-they-were-talking-to-me angle, the wow-we-made-world-news-again-today-but-I-still-think-an-in-person-state-party-convention-in-no-ICU-bed-having-Houston-is-a-good-idea angle, the no-germ-is-gonna-boss-us-around angle, I just can't make any of them work. Still wondering how the same public school district that asks kids to include 2 rolls of toilet paper on school supply list is supposed to protect a teacher workforce under orders to show up but with no extra guidance or funds from district, but apparently that's a question for another day. Just to bring all this together, I'll say that the fact that state leadership in NY managed (however imperfectly) a crisis that state leadership in TX only grudgingly acknowledges exists ... as a Thing ... EVEN NOW ... in   J U L Y  ... with infection and hospitalization rates that predict a morbidity (illness)/mortality (death) rate that ultimately will surpass that reported by New York (as well as some entire countries), is ENOUGH to make me wish for some of that leadership what New York got.   Thank you for asking. [Out of respect for the forum and its policies, I will refrain from further comment on this topic but again, really, thank you for asking._ Drops mic, tucks soapbox under arm, and fades back into obscurity._]


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 13, 2020)

New York has 25% of all deaths in the US and the gun violence is the highest we have seen in 25 years. But they have done a good job  compared to Texas that has 15 times less deaths per 100,000 people. 









						Gun Violence Spikes in N.Y.C., Intensifying Debate Over Policing (Published 2020)
					

More than a dozen people have been fatally shot, including a teenager at her college graduation party and a clothing designer who was washing his car.




					www.nytimes.com


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## geekette (Jul 13, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> New York has 25% of all deaths in the US and the gun violence is the highest we have seen in 25 years. But they have done a good job  compared to Texas that has 15 times less deaths per 100,000 people.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


so far


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## Brett (Jul 13, 2020)

geekette said:


> Part of the problem is that we elected politicians then somehow expected all of them to become infectious disease safety experts.  There is no consistently because there is no central plan.



Not many politicians are experts in the sciences or medicine so they have to rely on experts.
yes, a "central plan" would be good


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 13, 2020)

Newsom shut down CA again.









						California, New Mexico and Oregon put new restrictions on indoor activities | CNN
					

With coronavirus cases recently on the rise in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday ordered all counties to close many activities, including indoor restaurant dining.




					www.cnn.com
				




I was at the hairdresser when this was announced and they are all freaking out. They were complying with all the guidelines and they are really worried how they will make ends meet with another shutdown.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 13, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Newsom shut down CA again.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What I do not understand is why decisions are made for the whole state. It seems that the transmission is the highest at the core of the large cities. Why do they have those in the suburbs and the less densely populated areas have the same restrictions?


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Newsom shut down CA again.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





DannyTS said:


> What I do not understand is why decisions are made for the whole state. It seems that the transmission is the highest at the core of the large cities. Why do they have those in the suburbs and the less densely populated areas have the same restrictions?


Look  at my posts from yesterday.  I knew it had to be. Does not  take a genius.


----------



## geekette (Jul 13, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> What I do not understand is why decisions are made for the whole state. It seems that the transmission is the highest at the core of the large cities. Why do they have those in the suburbs and the less densely populated areas have the same restrictions?


Because people don't stay in their counties.  I'm in the corner of my county, 3 blocks to another county in one direction, a mile in another direction to another county.   I rarely get my groceries or fuel in my home county.  Further, people don't always live and work in the same county.   It's far easier to notice crossing a state border.   This really does need to be made easy for people.


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## DannyTS (Jul 13, 2020)

geekette said:


> Because people don't stay in their counties.  I'm in the corner of my county, 3 blocks to another county in one direction, a mile in another direction to another county.   I rarely get my groceries or fuel in my home county.  Further, people don't always live and work in the same county.   It's far easier to notice crossing a state border.   This really does need to be made easy for people.


I live in a suburb of a large city in Canada. We've had virtually no cases in our area even if we are 30  min to downtown that has had a fair share of Covid. Do people stay exactly in their area all the time? No, but that does not still mean that the transmission is a problem in those areas. They can design circles of risk around downtown, include or exclude what they want but closing businesses across the whole state because of just certain areas will seem very unfair to some people.

Edited to add:
There are 58 counties in California, 77% of the new cases come from just 10 counties. Even in those I am pretty sure one can find some very low risk areas.


----------



## Luanne (Jul 13, 2020)

geekette said:


> Part of the problem is that we elected politicians then somehow expected all of them to become infectious disease safety experts.  There is no consistently because there is no central plan.


I'm just one person, but I certainly didn't expect the politicians to become infectious disease safety experts. But I would have hoped they would have listened to those who are experts.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 13, 2020)

Thanks for expanding on your thoughts, @travelpager.  Don't fade back into obscurity though - I do enjoy reading the various thoughts posted here for a number of reasons but chief among them is the fact that we (as TUG'gers) are from all around the country and getting a sense of any topic from the perspective of different regions is always insightful.

Despite the adage to the contrary, this will be one crisis that no one benefits from politically (in my opinion) - it may be more accurate to identify who suffered the least political damage.  
I had hoped previous disasters (including natural and man made) had taught this country the value on being prepared for the day the next disaster came along but COVID-19 has clearly demonstrated just how unprepared we are (yet again).  

And I do not see any hopeful signs (from anywhere) addressing the lack of preparedness.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 13, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> What I do not understand is why decisions are made for the whole state. It seems that the transmission is the highest at the core of the large cities. Why do they have those in the suburbs and the less densely populated areas have the same restrictions?



I watched a little bit of Newsom's announcement but someone please verify this - I thought I understood this _*did not*_ apply to the whole state RATHER only about 34 counties in CA.  However, those 34 counties comprise about 80% of the state's population.  If that is correct, I assume the remote counties _*are not *_on the list of effected counties....


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 13, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I'm just one person, but I certainly didn't expect the politicians to become infectious disease safety experts. *But I would have hoped they would have listened to those who are experts*.



Optimist!


----------



## Luanne (Jul 13, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Optimist!


I said "hoped".  Didn't say thought or even assumed.


----------



## geekette (Jul 13, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I live in a suburb of a large city in Canada. We've had virtually no cases in our area even if we are 30  min to downtown that has had a fair share of Covid. Do people stay exactly in their area all the time? No, but that does not still mean that the transmission is a problem in those areas. They can design circles of risk around downtown, include or exclude what they want but closing businesses across the whole state because of just certain areas will seem very unfair to some people.


Yeah, but, the pandemic doesn't care about fair.  Pretty much everyone in the world had their lives affected.  "Fair" isn't really an issue right now, we're still trying to preserve life.   Areas without transmission are only that way for a while.   We are seeing that now.  States that did not have impact when WA, NY and CA did seemed to think this is no problem, yet, now have their own big and growing problem.  Our small cities with an interstate exit didn't have to wait long to get cases.   

Shutting down stuff over here and not over there only creates statewide whack-a-mole, as people go over this county border for that, back to home county, over here for that...  the more people that are moving around that don't have to be moving around (not essential workers), the less potential infectees, and way fewer vectors walking around.  

which residents are going to be up to the minute on these circles drawn around downtown?   Who would manage that?   Let alone, explain it to the residents around all those circles, why they can't do this or that, yet Joe across the street, outside of the circle, has no restrictions...   nah, has to be simpler.  trying to get precision on it would only work if everybody stayed right where they are....


----------



## travelpager (Jul 13, 2020)

silentg said:


> I have a Corona Virus travel related question. Have you stayed at a timeshare, hotel, campground or other vacation spot since the Corona Virus? We are thinking of going to a Holiday Inn just overnight to visit friends  moving to the Villages. My husband thinks it’s too risky, we have stayed home mostly since March except for Dr visits and social distancing very few times. If you’ve traveled just a bit, did it turn out ok?



My family and I just returned from a week in Colorado timeshare.  So far, so good BUT we will self-quarantine for a week (or so) before I'll allow my parents to the house. To address your question more broadly, the answer may well depend on your destination.  We had checked the relevant public health stats for the county of our destination and concluded that the trip was worth the risk if Colorado would allow us the visit. My teen sons rolled their eyes every time I pulled out my ziploc bag of Clorox wipes, hand sanitizer or box of nitrile gloves, but each wore mask and sometimes gloves (to pump gas, shop groceries, etc.) and sanitized regularly; in other words, I knew each son was at least moderately mindful. Nearly all of our activities were outdoors; we even slept with windows open. We stayed in a condo with a kitchen (no housekeeping services) at a resort where local police periodically dropped by to monitor compliance with masks and social distancing; the night before we arrived, the police "closed" (emptied") the lobby after finding too many people in too little space with not enough masks. Contrast that with our overnight stop in Amarillo, Texas, where the use of masks (2 restaurants, hotel lobby, national chain drug store) appeared to be less prevalent, or Bowie, Texas, where I was the ONLY one wearing a mask in a busy gas station/convenience store (the staff had masks hanging around their necks and everybody stared at my nitrile gloves}. Finally, note that our point of origin and return is Houston, Covid 19 Global Hotspot Extraordinaire, where many conduct themselves in a manner that should inspire confidence, many do not, and infection/hospitalization stats suggest that all bets are off.   My point is that the destination matters as much as the journey, if not more. Good luck!


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 13, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I watched a little bit of Newsom's announcement but someone please verify this - I thought I understood this _*did not*_ apply to the whole state RATHER only about 34 counties in CA.  However, those 34 counties comprise about 80% of the state's population.  If that is correct, I assume the remote counties _*are not *_on the list of effected counties....



As the coronavirus rages through California, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday that all counties across the state are required to immediately close indoor dining, bars, movie theatres, zoos and museums.

Counties on the governor’s “watch list” for troubling coronavirus trends — which now totals 30 counties where 80% of Californians live — must also shutter gyms, hair salons, places of worship, malls and non-essential offices. In the Bay Area, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Solano and Sonoma are currently on the list. But Newsom said Monday that he expects to add Alameda County within the next day.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 13, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> As the coronavirus rages through California, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday that all counties across the state are required to immediately close indoor dining, bars, movie theatres, zoos and museums.
> 
> Counties on the governor’s “watch list” for troubling coronavirus trends — which now totals 30 counties where 80% of Californians live — must also shutter gyms, hair salons, places of worship, malls and non-essential offices. In the Bay Area, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Solano and Sonoma are currently on the list. But Newsom said Monday that he expects to add Alameda County within the next day.



Thanks for that info, @TravelTime - my confusion had to do with the bolding of Placer, , Sonoma, Sutter and Yuba counties in bold - were they recent additions to the list?  My interest in Sonoma County is due to an upcoming A School for our youngest who is in the U.S. Coast Guard. I suspect I'll be paying more attention to CA news when the PCS orders come!


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 13, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Thanks for that info, @TravelTime - my confusion had to do with the bolding of Placer, , Sonoma, Sutter and Yuba counties in bold - were they recent additions to the list?  My interest in Sonoma County is due to an upcoming A School for our youngest who is in the U.S. Coast Guard. I suspect I'll be paying more attention to CA news when the PCS orders come!



I am in Placer County and we are among the 30 counties that need a full shutdown. I read that cases in Sonoma are rising and they are also on the watch list. I posted a couple articles on this link:









						California shut down again
					

Closures are back. GYMS, CHURCHES, SALONS, MORE MUST CLOSE IN LA COUNTY... Additional closures in Los Angeles and other watchlist counties]:  Fitness centers Worship services Offices for non-critical sectors Personal care services Hair salons and barbershops Indoor malls  The governor said that...




					tugbbs.com


----------



## Cornell (Jul 13, 2020)

Headlines like this make me laugh at the media


----------



## Brett (Jul 13, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> As the coronavirus rages through California, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday that all counties across the state are required to immediately close indoor dining, bars, movie theatres, zoos and museums.
> 
> Counties on the governor’s “watch list” for troubling coronavirus trends — which now totals 30 counties where 80% of Californians live — must also shutter gyms, hair salons, places of worship, malls and non-essential offices. In the Bay Area, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Solano and Sonoma are currently on the list. But Newsom said Monday that he expects to add Alameda County within the next day.



the curve has to flatten at some point ....

July 13  2020





July 13  2020


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## "Roger" (Jul 13, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Headlines like this make me laugh at the media


Sigh. The previous two days utterly smashed the Wisconsin records. The 494 refers to what was reported on Sunday. The track record for Sundays is that a lot of locations fail to report their results. Thus, the headline is trying to point out that one should not take much solace in the drop from the prior couple of days. The drop reflects the day of the week as much as any real drop in cases. So why is that bad media??

On another topic, this thread has gotten so bad that I was thinking this morning of dropping out of TUG altogether. The bickering, the political jabs when it is known that that is forbidden, the absolute need to try to dominate and repeatedly post the very same message rather than just state one's point. Looking over the last two days of posts (which came after a warning), I'm gone. Maybe in a month or two, I will reconsider, but this thread has really turned bad. So, if anyone wants to respond to this post, just so that you know, I won't see it.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 13, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I'm just one person, but I certainly didn't expect the politicians to become infectious disease safety experts. But I would have hoped they would have listened to those who are experts.


 The problem was/is - there were no experts. This was a totally new Pandemic, with no knowledge to fall back on. All you have is basic quarantine rules. They work on a small scale, but are problematic on a larger scale.


----------



## IngridN (Jul 13, 2020)

..... .....


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 13, 2020)

Johns Hopkins' dashboard: The people behind the pandemic's most visited site
					

The work of a talented skeleton crew at Johns Hopkins University has become the leading resource on coronavirus numbers for public health officials, news outlets and the public. The lives of the crew have dramatically transformed because of it.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## davidvel (Jul 13, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I watched a little bit of Newsom's announcement but someone please verify this - I thought I understood this _*did not*_ apply to the whole state RATHER only about 34 counties in CA.  However, those 34 counties comprise about 80% of the state's population.  If that is correct, I assume the remote counties _*are not *_on the list of effected counties....


This is correct, Danny is wrong.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 13, 2020)

Brett said:


> the curve has to flatten at some point ....
> 
> July 13  2020
> 
> ...


The curve, at least when this all started and all politicians agreed, was the bulge of cases needing advanced care, not the number of people testing positive (with or without symptoms).


----------



## davidvel (Jul 13, 2020)

DUPLICATE....


----------



## CO skier (Jul 14, 2020)

davidvel said:


> This is correct, Danny is wrong.


The order applies to 30 California counties:

California Governor Gavin Newsom on Monday ordered the closure of indoor businesses across the state, including restaurants, bars, wineries, movie theaters, zoos and museums as coronavirus cases continue to surge.


Newsom's announcement comes as California reported 8,460 new cases of COVID-19, according to July 11 data from the state's health department. The state now has a total of 320,804 positive cases, and 1,833 of the patients required intensive care. There have been a total of 7,017 deaths in California so far.

Newsom also imposed more stringent restrictions in 30 counties, including Los Angeles, Napa, Orange, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura. In those counties, gyms, places of worship, non-critical offices, personal care services, hair salons, barbershops and malls must close all indoor operations.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 14, 2020)

OK, honestly, I do not know if the CA governor's "orders" apply to the "whole state" or only "30 counties."  Very confusing.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 14, 2020)

CO skier said:


> OK, honestly, I do not know if the CA governor's "orders" apply to the "whole state" or only "30 counties."  Very confusing.


Well that's refreshing.


----------



## Brett (Jul 14, 2020)

" California already had closed bars and indoor dining in the most populated parts of the state, but a new order makes it statewide. Counties hardest hit by the coronavirus are seeing additional closures.

As of Monday, California had more than 326,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 7,000 total deaths, according to the *Los Angeles Times’ tracker.*

https://www.latimes.com/california/...businesses-shut-down-newsom-coronavirus-order
https://covid19.ca.gov/roadmap-counties/


----------



## WinniWoman (Jul 14, 2020)

The problem is everyone is over analyzing this thing. It is really simple if you have a simple mind like mine. The virus is here to stay until a vaccine is developed and administered to those who choose to get it. You can look at graphs and numbers and analyze until you are blue in the face - panic or relax- the fact is you have no control universally. Science or no science.

They can keep shutting down and opening up and shutting down and opening up and will get the same result eventually again. Many, if not most people will get the virus- either with symptoms or without. (OK- some will be lucky and not get it). That is the way it is. You can shame people all you want for not wearing masks and not social distancing (which is still suspect as to mass effectiveness), but people are human beings and will never 100 percent conform to all these dictates. The world will never be perfect. I generally look at that as a good thing actually.

So do we want to stay in a lock down indefinitely for a vaccine that might not ever come? If we choose that then know our lives as we knew them could be over anyway. If we open up and run with this it is just that we are going to have to face the facts of the way it will be living with the virus until it is eradicated.

This said- the main thing is to not overwhelm the hospitals and at times measures will have to be taken on a local level to help with that.

If I recall, a month into this thing back in April,  Fauci said there would probably be 200,000 deaths AFTER we flattened the curve. So I do not get why people are so surprised and in a panic about hearing about the numbers of deaths so far. It was to be expected. Sure- it's awful, but it's a pandemic and we were told this.

So I go back to my own philosophy on living my life the best I can throughout this. I am generally not scared so I go out. I socialize in very small groups- walking, boating, cocktail parties. No masks and no distancing. I have shaken hands and hugged a couple of people. My son visits us now and I hug him when I see him. I stay away from large crowds, especially indoors. I go to stores when I want to. I eat in and out at restaurants. I get my haircut. I'm going to doctors offices, got my blood drawn, going to the dentist in the fall, etc. I have no big concerns about visiting our timeshare resorts but am cautious. I go to the beach and the state parks and to the pool. I will probably take the big ship and the mail boat out onto the lake as well at some point. I have been in neighbors' cars and them in mine. I wear a mask in buildings, but not outside. My choice. Others choose not to- their choice. If you are scared to go out, don't. If you are not- go for it.

Yeah- we have to navigate through all the various states so called "orders" and decide FOR OURSELVES whether or not to travel. It's a pain.

We have to keep the economy going and people employed. It's all great to stay home and in restrictions if you have money coming into your household or are retired with pensions and SS and big savings accounts - no sweat off your back-or if you do not own a business where you have to struggle with this situation- or are living on government money and could care less, but remember others need to work and the general population needs services. It's all great and tolerable if you live in a nice big house in the suburbs or a rural area instead of a tiny apartment in a major city.

Think of the young people and what this is doing to them- all the young ages from grammar school up to those in their 30's and 40's. I personally do not believe in the government shutting down any businesses, bars, theaters - any of them. Nor churches, schools, concerts, sports, or anything else.  If owners choose to do so that is their decision, as it is their decision to operate safely during this time. But that is just me. If you don't then that is your prerogative.  No sense in debating it with me or anyone else. Neither one of us can change what is being dictated right now.

I don't care how smart you think you are. No one is "winning". We are all stuck. Let us hope and pray as we go forward,


----------



## Conan (Jul 14, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> New York ... gun violence is the highest we have seen in 25 years. But they have done a good job  compared to Texas.


It seems New York City has about the same number of homicides, year-to-date, as Houston.
New York City population 8.3 million.  Houston population 2.3 million.

Houston: 178 murders in 2020 compared to 140 in 2019.








						Murders in Houston on track to hit 5-year high
					

Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo says there is concern specifically in southeast Houston because of gangs and drug trafficking.




					abc13.com
				




New York: 166 murders through June 21, up from 134 over the same period last year








						Gun Violence Spikes in N.Y.C., Intensifying Debate Over Policing (Published 2020)
					

More than a dozen people have been fatally shot, including a teenager at her college graduation party and a clothing designer who was washing his car.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Brett (Jul 14, 2020)

Conan said:


> It seems



so the coronavirus is causing people to buy guns and kill each other  -  but only in certain areas.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 14, 2020)

@WinniWoman Your comments are truly a breath of fresh air & we are of the same mind.  

But please don't say that you have a "simple mind".  Far from it.


----------



## Brett (Jul 14, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> The problem is everyone is over analyzing this thing. It is really simple if you have a simple mind like mine. The virus is here to stay until a vaccine is developed and administered to those who choose to get it. You can look at graphs and numbers and analyze until you are blue in the face - panic or relax- the fact is you have no control universally. Science or no science.
> 
> They can keep shutting down and opening up and shutting down and opening up and will get the same result eventually again. Many, if not most people will get the virus- either with symptoms or without. (OK- some will be lucky and not get it). That is the way it is. You can shame people all you want for not wearing masks and not social distancing (which is still suspect as to mass effectiveness), but people are human beings and will never 100 percent conform to all these dictates. The world will never be perfect. I generally look at that as a good thing actually.
> 
> ...



letting each business owner of concerts, sports, restaurants, bars, etc. set their own individual coronavirus policy could cause problems.
If there are no rules or regulations then yes, some businesses could have higher profits - at the risk of others 
That's pretty much how country XXXX works


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 14, 2020)

I guess this is good news, Yesterday and the day before the number of deaths in Florida went back to the average of the previous weeks. The media continues to focus on the number of infections or on any other number that seems scary that day rather than on the number of deaths.





Sweden continues to do very well reinforcing the idea that the initial shutdown only pushed the the number of infections for few weeks but it it does not change the total number of deaths on a longer period of time.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 14, 2020)

I know all the cool kids are now bashing Anthony Fauci but here is his actual words spoken in April on how to open up safely.






Here is an article on how the US should follow Germany's lead by using testing and tracing




			https://www.washingtonpost.com/


----------



## Brett (Jul 14, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I guess this is good news, Yesterday and the day before the number of deaths in Florida went back to the average of the previous weeks. The media continues to focus on the number of infections or on any other number that seems scary that day rather than on the number of deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> Sweden continues to do very well reinforcing the idea that the initial shutdown only pushed the the number of infections for few weeks but it it does not change the total number of deaths on a longer period of time.



If only the "media" focused on coronavirus deaths than infections it would all be much better 

July 14  2020






https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53357742


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 14, 2020)

Brett said:


> If only the "media" focused on coronavirus deaths than infections it would all be much better
> 
> July 14  2020
> 
> ...


LOL you only found it on BBC.com? Did Warner Media or another organization buy BBC? By the way, many times one has to follow the European media for a more balanced prospective.

But you must be right, probably this is all the media in the US covered Yesterday . I guess we know how it works: bad news is promoted to the front line, good news is either minimized or completely ignored.


----------



## geekette (Jul 14, 2020)

My local media tells me both.  They are new numbers today.  Adding to a total.  And the pending cases (presumed COVID, but not confirmed).  And the recovered.  

If someone doesn't like what the media they are consuming is focusing on, they can certainly find other outlets.  No shortage of them.


----------



## Panina (Jul 14, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> The problem is everyone is over analyzing this thing. It is really simple if you have a simple mind like mine. The virus is here to stay until a vaccine is developed and administered to those who choose to get it. You can look at graphs and numbers and analyze until you are blue in the face - panic or relax- the fact is you have no control universally. Science or no science.
> 
> They can keep shutting down and opening up and shutting down and opening up and will get the same result eventually again. Many, if not most people will get the virus- either with symptoms or without. (OK- some will be lucky and not get it). That is the way it is. You can shame people all you want for not wearing masks and not social distancing (which is still suspect as to mass effectiveness), but people are human beings and will never 100 percent conform to all these dictates. The world will never be perfect. I generally look at that as a good thing actually.
> 
> ...


I agree everyone is over analyzing.  The whole Planet has a problem and scientists cannot agree nor do they have a way to stop it.

A country (or US state) might look like they are handling it better or worse today but that doesn’t  mean in a few weeks or days that will stay the same.

Meanwhile each of us has to make the choices that are right for us knowing the risks.


----------



## geekette (Jul 14, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> LOL you only found it on BBC.com? Did Warner Media or another organization buy BBC? By the way, many times one has to follow the European media for a more balanced prospective.
> 
> But you must be right, probably this is all the media in the US covered Yesterday . I guess we know how it works: bad news is promoted to the front line, good news is either minimized or completely ignored.


These attacks are getting old.   What are you doing to change the world in a positive way?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 14, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I know all the cool kids are now bashing Anthony Fauci but here is his actual words spoken in April on how to open up safely.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Then a few  weeks later:

*Dr. Anthony Fauci says staying closed for too long could cause ‘irreparable damage’*










						Dr. Anthony Fauci says staying closed for too long could cause 'irreparable damage'
					

"I don't want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go," he tells CNBC.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Brett (Jul 14, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> LOL you only found it on BBC.com? Did Warner Media or another organization buy BBC? By the way, many times one has to follow the European media for a more balanced prospective.
> 
> But you must be right, probably this is all the media in the US covered Yesterday . I guess we know how it works: bad news is promoted to the front line, good news is either minimized or completely ignored.



LOL !

The headlines are from the* Tampa Bay Times in Florida !*

yeah, it's all a_ media conspiracy  _

*https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/07/13/florida-counts-12624-coronavirus-infections-on-monday-35-deaths/*


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 14, 2020)

geekette said:


> What are you doing to change the world in a positive way?


Is this a philosophical question or a practical one? Is this part of a larger poll on TUGBBS or it is just about me? Are you going to ask the same question to everyone or just the ones you do not agree with?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 14, 2020)

Brett said:


> LOL !
> 
> The headlines are from the* Tampa Bay Times in Florida !*
> 
> ...


That is truly a large national news outlet! Yesterday alone it probably reached tens of millions of people!  I think what I said is obvious, news is promoted, minimized or completely ignored depending on certain factors.


----------



## Brett (Jul 14, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> That is truly a large national news outlet! Yesterday alone it probably reached tens of millions of people!  I think what I said is obvious, news is promoted, minimized or completely ignored I depending on certain factors.



tens of millions, hundreds of millions   .... but not you


----------



## cman (Jul 14, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Sweden continues to do very well reinforcing the idea that the initial shutdown only pushed the the number of infections for few weeks but it it does not change the total number of deaths on a longer period of time.



Sweden's Nordic neighbors did lock down and almost virtually eliminated deaths by the end of May. In other words, their lockdowns did change the total number of deaths.


----------



## geekette (Jul 14, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Is this a philosophical question or a practical one? Is this part of a larger poll on TUGBBS or it is just about me? Are you going to ask the same question to everyone or just the ones you do not agree with?


I'm just telling you WE HEAR YOU on your deep dislike of US media.  You've beaten that drum plenty.   If you don't like how "promotion" goes, what are you doing to solve it?  Or, do you just want to complain?


----------



## bluehende (Jul 14, 2020)

'Pushing the frontiers': Long lines for COVID tests, stressed labs delay results as demand spikes
					

COVID-19 test results are delayed a week or longer in hotspot communities, undercutting public health efforts to track, isolate and prevent spread.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 14, 2020)

cman said:


> Sweden's Nordic neighbors did lock down and almost virtually eliminated deaths by the end of May. In other words, their lockdowns did change the total number of deaths.
> 
> View attachment 23595



*Lockdowns:*

Norway -  March 12th
Denmark -  March 13th
Finland - March 16th

If you look at the chart that you posted, in *late March-early April* the number of deaths in Sweden was already few times higher than in the other countries. At that time the effect of the lockdowns in Norway, Denmark and Finland  was not a factor in their numbers. For some reasons (spring break? differences in public transit? bad luck?) Sweden started from a much higher number of infected people when they began to test aggressively late March-early April in the region.

But if you look at the trends *after* mid-April they are all declining even if Sweden was supposed to be catastrophic if you believed the initial models.

In a top of all countries and states, Sweden is number *sixteen* in terms of most deaths per 100,000 people and they actually keep on dropping in that chart because other countries and states continue to rise. This makes it difficult to assist the theory that  the lockdown was so successful in the US or in Europe and that it should be repeated.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 14, 2020)

geekette said:


> I'm just telling you WE HEAR YOU on your deep dislike of US media.  You've beaten that drum plenty.   If you don't like how "promotion" goes, what are you doing to solve it?  Or, do you just want to complain?


Few days ago somebody shared a link with archives from old newspapers and I briefly browsed through some headlines from 1933. One article was about why they did not report the bankruptcies of a large number of banks in that region. It was of public interest  but they just did not want to do it because they thought it was not in the interest of the local economy to report it. They were not making an excuse, their point was that it was for the better good, at least in their view.

I am not complaining, I am sharing. I do not dislike, I observe. Although I mentioned the European outlets, it was in this context of reporting the Covid news about US because they can be more detached when it is not about them. There is good and bad journalism everywhere like in any other profession. There is nothing to do about it, you and I are not going to change it since it has been like this from the beginning of the media in  all countries. Maybe you have suggestions in case you believe it can be improved/solved but in my opinion it is what it is.

I am not sure why people become so sensitive if media is criticized. I understand I have done it more than once but there are a million repeated comments about everything else and they did not rub people the wrong way. If you tell me a good reason, I am very open to listen. If you think it is more appropriate in a PM so that we do not bore others with this topic I am also OK with that.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 14, 2020)

CO skier said:


> OK, honestly, I do not know if the CA governor's "orders" apply to the "whole state" or only "30 counties."  Very confusing.



This is quite easy. I already posted the rules. The entire state is required to close down restaurants and some other businesses. Then there is a morre stringent order for counties on the watch list. So I think @DannyTS  was right.

—————-

California is largely closing again amid a spike in COVID-19 cases across the state, as Gov. Gavin Newsom announced statewide restrictions Monday to again halt all indoor dining and close bars, zoos and museums.

Newsom also imposed more stringent restrictions in 30 counties, including Los Angeles, Napa, Orange, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura. In those counties, gyms, places of worship, non-critical offices, personal care services, hair salons, barbershops and malls must close all indoor operations.

In addition, offices with nonessential workers in those counties must close.


----------



## beejaybeeohio (Jul 14, 2020)

bluehende said:


> 'Pushing the frontiers': Long lines for COVID tests, stressed labs delay results as demand spikes
> 
> 
> COVID-19 test results are delayed a week or longer in hotspot communities, undercutting public health efforts to track, isolate and prevent spread.
> ...



Anecdotal with an N of 1: DD was tested in the greater Charleston area a week ago b.c. middle son had C-19 and she was experiencing slight headache and slight sore throat. Her results will not be available for another 10 days. (She reports feeling fine.) Youngest gransdson went elsewhere the same day as she and got his negative results on Saturday. DSiL also negative but I don"t know when he was tested.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 14, 2020)

Interesting article about how masks protect both the wearer as well as those they come in contact with.









						Masks offer much more protection against coronavirus than many think — Los Angeles Times
					

Mask-wearing in public has become an increasingly pressing and politicized issue as the economy reopens and cases surge across the nation.




					apple.news


----------



## nerodog (Jul 14, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> The southern part of Europe did just get slammed early on. At the time, there was no experience as to how to treat coVid-19, no promising drugs, no nothing. These places did lock down and as Danny notes, they are now opening up.  New York, Michigan, Washington also got slammed early. Florida wisely wouldn't let anyone from New York enter their state. (A variation of a lockdown.) Now all of these places, which got slammed for locking down, are doing much better, opening up. Ironically, NY doesn't want people travelling from Florida.
> 
> If you look back over recent posts, we see some that publish numbers that include all of their early cases and deaths with the intent of showing how bad these places are. (They locked up, look at how bad they are.) Okay, so southern Europe was really bad. The numbers prove that. But, now these European nations are doing comparitively well versus the US, so much so that they are refusing to allow American tourists to come much like NY now doesn't want visitors from Florida. (I might mention that I have a friend who lives in France who says that the lack of American tourists in her area is largely being made up for by Chinese tourists. Isn't that a kicker.)
> 
> Yes, we should look at why Europe which was so awful can now afford to open up while we are heading downhill. Just maybe it was because they locked down and did so tightly. Cetainly there has to be some explanation as to why we are going in just the opposite direction from them.


Europe  did lock down tightly  and followed the phases. If the magic number wasnt reached, we remained in the same phase.    Right now Portugal  is having trouble  in greater Lisbon.  The rest of the country is in a different  phase.  Movie  theaters, sports arenas, bars have never opened.  No fairs, concerts.   I think it has alot to do with it. Each state has been on a different  schedule.


----------



## Glynda (Jul 14, 2020)

I enjoyed reading this Washington Post Article


*How Fauci and other experts deal with covid-19*


----------



## Luanne (Jul 14, 2020)

New York just announced four more states added to its list of those not allowed entry.  Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/go...l_mo7LZfuilitxVwjC4FknIJHs33O6cM2zfP9997hb-dM


----------



## travelpager (Jul 14, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> .
> 
> Many, if not most people will get the virus- either with symptoms or without. (OK- some will be lucky and not get it). That is the way it is. You can shame people all you want for not wearing masks and not social distancing (which is still suspect as to mass effectiveness), but people are human beings and will never 100 percent conform to all these dictates.
> 
> So I go back to my own philosophy on living my life the best I can throughout this. I am generally not scared so I go out. I socialize in very small groups- walking, boating, cocktail parties. No masks and no distancing. I have shaken hands and hugged a couple of people. My son visits us now and I hug him when I see him.



An interesting opinion, to which you are entitled, of course. The same holds true for highway speeding and covering a "regular" sneeze; 100% compliance is not realistic. The concept of speed limits strikes me as sensible; when I fail to comply, I can't claim not to understand this attempt to address public safety or that I am somehow exempt. I cover my sneezes because the behavior is too deeply ingrained as good manners and public hygiene and costs me nothing. I admit it - I cover my sneeze even when I'm alone in a room. Now, with a highly contagious airborne virus that may sideline me but kill my neighbor AND given relatively low-cost, low-risk options to help curb a very real problem that affects at least enough of us to support this thread, why not accept mild inconvenience to protect others especially given the number who are unreachable or else inclined to use the unreachable as cover?

Congratulations on the luxury of choices necessary to support your philosophy. My own philosophy is one that cannot disregard the balance between my choices and potential harm to OTHERS or consign asthmatics, hypertensives, diabetics, and other immunocompromised persons to their respective homes so I can go play however I like. Nor can I pretend that making my next-door neighbor, a 3d-grade teacher, "choose" between going to work (income, career) and staying home so as not to inadvertently infect her Type I diabetic husband, asthmatic son or her elderly mother is fair or even reasonable. Unless the very question runs counter to your philosophy, what would you choose in that situation? As the immunocompromised (MS, in remission) but longtime employee of a small business owner that caters to the public, which would you "choose": update your will and work or quit and stay home? Maybe your philosophy would dismiss each question without consideration as "her problem, not mine." If so, then I grant the consistency in logic. Party on.

I do not mean to be personal. I don't mean to debate because I doubt my ability to persuade. I mean only to express, as civilly as possible, my own frustration with a philosophy that is quite popular here in Texas. Months into watching others celebrate life, cavorting from salon to cocktail parties to family gatherings, even as area hospitalizations reach capacity and other countries reopen with greater stability, I puzzle over a worldview that so minimizes the role of personal responsibility for the individual who functions within a society comprised of other individuals. I don't know from mask shaming, but can't celebrate a person's choice to opt out of low-cost, low-risk measures to help protect the less "invincible" from real harm. Name the residual emotion whatever you like: disappointment, shame, resentment,  Fred, or Scooter. In the grand scheme of all things pandemic, my own philosophy allows me to care relatively less for the feelings of those who opt out of simple preventive measures and messaging for whatever reason ... but I wear my mask around them anyway. #yourewelcome

I sincerely wish you (all) continued good health, if only to limit the potential impact on the health of all you encounter who hope to continue productive lives despite dramatically different sets of "choices." "Public health" means that we both matter, as do our actions, even when we'd prefer to think otherwise.


----------



## Conan (Jul 14, 2020)

Brett said:


> so the coronavirus is causing people to buy guns and kill each other  -  but only in certain areas.


That's what you think I was implying? Which is why you limited your quote of my post to two words, "It seems"?

I was responding to a post that said:
"New York ... gun violence is the highest we have seen in 25 years But they have done a good job compared to Texas[?]"

I thought it would be useful to look at homicide rates in NYC versus a Texas city that has about the same number of murders and about the same year-on-year percentage increase. Houston was a good fit for absolute numbers, but adjusted for population the Houston rate is about 3.5 times that of New York.


----------



## WinniWoman (Jul 14, 2020)

travelpager said:


> An interesting opinion, to which you are entitled, of course. The same holds true for highway speeding and covering a "regular" sneeze; 100% compliance is not realistic. The concept of speed limits strikes me as sensible; when I fail to comply, I can't claim not to understand this attempt to address public safety or that I am somehow exempt. I cover my sneezes because the behavior is too deeply ingrained as good manners and public hygiene and costs me nothing. I admit it - I cover my sneeze even when I'm alone in a room. Now, with a highly contagious airborne virus that may sideline me but kill my neighbor AND given relatively low-cost, low-risk options to help curb a very real problem that affects at least enough of us to support this thread, why not accept mild inconvenience to protect others especially given the number who are unreachable or else inclined to use the unreachable as cover?
> 
> Congratulations on the luxury of choices necessary to support your philosophy. My own philosophy is one that cannot disregard the balance between my choices and potential harm to OTHERS or consign asthmatics, hypertensives, diabetics, and other immunocompromised persons to their respective homes so I can go play however I like. Nor can I pretend that making my next-door neighbor, a 3d-grade teacher, "choose" between going to work (income, career) and staying home so as not to inadvertently infect her Type I diabetic husband, asthmatic son or her elderly mother is fair or even reasonable. Unless the very question runs counter to your philosophy, what would you choose in that situation? As the immunocompromised (MS, in remission) but longtime employee of a small business owner that caters to the public, which would you "choose": update your will and work or quit and stay home? Maybe your philosophy would dismiss each question without consideration as "her problem, not mine." If so, then I grant the consistency in logic. Party on.
> 
> ...



There it is! Virtue signaling. I’m not going there. No debate from me. You’re not dragging me in. Not worth my time. No matter what, we are all in the same toilet bowl. Hope you have enough toilet paper.


----------



## Luanne (Jul 14, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> There it is! Virtue signaling. I’m not going there. No debate from me. You’re not dragging me in. Not worth my time. No matter what, we are all in the same toilet bowl. Hope you have enough toilet paper.


For someone who was not going to be dragged in, well you got dragged in.  And I know I'm guilty of this as well.  I'm really, really trying to get better at just ignoring the stuff I don't want to get dragged into.


----------



## WinniWoman (Jul 14, 2020)

Luanne said:


> For someone who was not going to be dragged in, well you got dragged in.  And I know I'm guilty of this as well.  I'm really, really trying to get better at just ignoring the stuff I don't want to get dragged into.



Yes. Luanne - you are so right about that! Lol!


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 14, 2020)

Luanne said:


> For someone who was not going to be dragged in, well you got dragged in.  And I know I'm guilty of this as well.  I'm really, really trying to get better at just ignoring the stuff I don't want to get dragged into.



Really?


----------



## travelpager (Jul 14, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> There it is! Virtue signaling. I’m not going there. No debate from me. You’re not dragging me in. Not worth my time. No matter what, we are all in the same toilet bowl. Hope you have enough toilet paper.



I do, thank you for asking! Don't know anything about virtue signaling, but I stand ready to own the label and/or behavior, whatever might remind any/every single one of us (myself included) that we are none of us alone ("no man is an island," &c.), nor can any of us cherry pick when and how we affect/impact the world we inhabit. Again, I wish us *all* good health, peace, and the sense of self/self-security necessary to reconsider one's place in the universe/Grand Toilet Bowl (either works for me) every now and then. 
P.S. I've had my wine so this post may read a bit loopy. Hope that don't cost me my halo, but then I never claimed to have one ... who knew the qualifications/standards could drop so low LOL?


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Jul 14, 2020)

Luanne said:


> For someone who was not going to be dragged in, well you got dragged in.  And I know I'm guilty of this as well.  I'm really, really trying to get better at just ignoring the stuff I don't want to get dragged into.





WinniWoman said:


> Yes. Luanne - you are so right about that! Lol!



Not my monkeys - not my circus 
Fern Modena -


----------



## SusanRN (Jul 15, 2020)

She is not virtue signalling.  She is expressing a heart-felt belief that everyone matters and everyone should care about everyone else's health.  That reflects her values -- and mine.  It's unfortunate, WinniWoman that you see it as superficial.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 15, 2020)

travelpager said:


> An interesting opinion, to which you are entitled, of course. The same holds true for highway speeding and covering a "regular" sneeze; 100% compliance is not realistic. The concept of speed limits strikes me as sensible; when I fail to comply, I can't claim not to understand this attempt to address public safety or that I am somehow exempt. I cover my sneezes because the behavior is too deeply ingrained as good manners and public hygiene and costs me nothing. I admit it - I cover my sneeze even when I'm alone in a room. Now, with a highly contagious airborne virus that may sideline me but kill my neighbor AND given relatively low-cost, low-risk options to help curb a very real problem that affects at least enough of us to support this thread, why not accept mild inconvenience to protect others especially given the number who are unreachable or else inclined to use the unreachable as cover?
> 
> *Congratulations on the luxury of choices necessary to support your philosophy. My own philosophy is one that cannot disregard the balance between my choices and potential harm to OTHERS or consign asthmatics, hypertensives, diabetics, and other immunocompromised persons to their respective homes so I can go play however I like. Nor can I pretend that making my next-door neighbor, a 3d-grade teacher, "choose" between going to work (income, career) and staying home so as not to inadvertently infect her Type I diabetic husband, asthmatic son or her elderly mother is fair or even reasonable. Unless the very question runs counter to your philosophy, what would you choose in that situation? As the immunocompromised (MS, in remission) but longtime employee of a small business owner that caters to the public, which would you "choose": update your will and work or quit and stay home? Maybe your philosophy would dismiss each question without consideration as "her problem, not mine." If so, then I grant the consistency in logic. Party on.*
> 
> ...


Masks and social distancing are only partially effective.  I am for both, but those people who are :
asthmatics, hypertensives, diabetics, and other immunocompromised persons, Type I diabetics, or elderly and the immunocompromised must act to protect themselves and not rely on the public to protect them. If these groups think they will get severely ill or die from exposure, they should hard quarantine, with aggressive disinfecting and distancing of family entering their homes, and use of medical grade PPE, even in home.


----------



## Brett (Jul 15, 2020)

Wall Street Journal

*July 15*   2020





.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 15, 2020)

travelpager said:


> I do, thank you for asking! Don't know anything about virtue signaling, but I stand ready to own the label and/or behavior, whatever might remind any/every single one of us (myself included) that we are none of us alone ("no man is an island," &c.), nor can any of us cherry pick when and how we affect/impact the world we inhabit. Again, I wish us *all* good health, peace, and the sense of self/self-security necessary to reconsider one's place in the universe/Grand Toilet Bowl (either works for me) every now and then.
> P.S. I've had my wine so this post may read a bit loopy. Hope that don't cost me my halo, but then I never claimed to have one ... who knew the qualifications/standards could drop so low LOL?


WOW


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 15, 2020)

Cornell said:


> WOW


I'll second that.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 15, 2020)

Masks again smh

from the American Lung Association









						From the Frontlines: The Truth About Masks and COVID-19
					

There is a tremendous amount of disinformation circulating regarding the use of masks to decrease transmission of COVID-19.




					www.lung.org
				






"Masks are not 100% effective, but mask wearing does decrease the risk of viral spread. Public health professionals believe that mask wearing and social distancing are the keys to controlling the first wave and diminishing or avoiding subsequent waves of the virus. Mask wearing allows us to open the economy up faster. Not wearing a mask around others only worsens the pandemic, leads to more disease, and worsens the economic effects."


----------



## Finsadbel (Jul 15, 2020)

Great article!

New virus=limited data, hence why “science” changes.

I’ve had many discussions about Dr. Fauci’s initial wavering mask policy. Don’t forget to put your argument into context with where we were in this pandemic:

“Initially there was a significant shortage of masks for frontline workers, which was why authorities were reluctant to recommend mask wearing to the general public.”

To me mask wearing is not an option. I don’t wear one because someone told me to, neither do I refuse because it “impinges on my freedom”. I wear one to protect YOU. All of this back and forth over masks is asinine. 

Look at these articles:



			Coronavirus updates: CDC chief says masks could halt outbreak in 4-6 weeks; Calif. updates testing rules; vaccine candidate shows promise
		










						Coronavirus Face Masks FAQs
					

The most recent recommendations related to prevention against the spread of COVID-19 include wearing cloth masks as an added measure of protection, particularly in areas of significant transmission.




					www.google.com
				








__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




And many more......

I’m not trying to offend anyone and by all means- mask wearing is a personal choice. But at what cost?


----------



## Bunk (Jul 15, 2020)

Here is your final Jeopardy question:What do these 2 things remind you of:










The final Jeopardy answer:  This post, which shows exponential growth in replies but which unfortunately is lasting a lot longer than the original Pong game.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 15, 2020)

Bunk said:


> Here is your final Jeopardy question:What do these 2 things remind you of:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's inconceivable to even imagine how far we've come from Pong. Do you remember spending hours playing this simple game?


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 15, 2020)

With respect to Pong, there was an Easter egg in that game (although I suspect it was very accidental).....
On the original Pong games that had a dial (turn) switch to turn the game on, if you only turned the switch about 1/2 of the way to ON (from the OFF position) - which was enough to power the game on, one side would have 2 paddles and the other 2 (or sometimes 3) paddles.  And the paddles worked!  

Super Pong!


----------



## Glynda (Jul 15, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> There it is! Virtue signaling. I’m not going there. No debate from me. You’re not dragging me in. Not worth my time. No matter what, we are all in the same toilet bowl. Hope you have enough toilet paper.



"Virtue signaling" perhaps, but I would think most would see it as just good common sense and the right thing to do for others as well as oneself.  Even if it is inconvenient and interferes with what one would prefer to be doing.


----------



## Brett (Jul 15, 2020)

Finsadbel said:


> Great article!
> 
> New virus=limited data, hence why “science” changes.
> 
> ...




the cost of wearing a mask is  $ 0  -  I got a free 'custom' pack of masks from Humana


----------



## Bunk (Jul 15, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> It's inconceivable to even imagine how far we've come from Pong. Do you remember spending hours playing this simple game?



I liked any games I could beat my son at.  I think that was only pong and Nintendo hockey .  
Do you remember the Commodore 64 games.  I remember the Oregon Trail game.  

Has anybody been to the Asheville Pinball Museum.  Missed it when we were there in October.  (Isn't it amazing how long ago anything that happened pre-Covid 19 seems)


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 15, 2020)

Bunk said:


> I liked any games I could beat my son at.  I think that was only pong and Nintendo hockey .
> Do you remember the Commodore 64 games.  I remember the Oregon Trail game.
> 
> Has anybody been to the Asheville Pinball Museum.  Missed it when we were there in October.  (Isn't it amazing how long ago anything that happened pre-Covid 19 seems)


...football on the Atari 5200 was outstanding!


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 15, 2020)

*Walmart and Sam’s Club Require Shoppers to Wear Face Coverings*

To help bring consistency across stores and clubs, we will require all shoppers to wear a face covering starting Monday, July 20. 









						A Simple Step to Help Keep You Safe: Walmart and Sam’s Club Require Shoppers to Wear Face Coverings
					

Editor’s Note: You can find the latest on our sanitation, social distancing and mask guidance here.July 15, 2020 By Dacona Smith, Chief Operating Officer, Walmart U.S., and Lance de la Rosa, Chief Operating Officer, Sam’s Club From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, our focus and priority…




					corporate.walmart.com


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 15, 2020)

Adding to @WVBaker's post above, notification of this was also made through the phone based app.


----------



## geekette (Jul 15, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> With respect to Pong, there was an Easter egg in that game (although I suspect it was very accidental).....
> On the original Pong games that had a dial (turn) switch to turn the game on, if you only turned the switch about 1/2 of the way to ON (from the OFF position) - which was enough to power the game on, one side would have 2 paddles and the other 2 (or sometimes 3) paddles.  And the paddles worked!
> 
> Super Pong!


YES!!!!   We DID find that!!!!   

Wow.  the older I get, the more I forget that I remembered...


----------



## geekette (Jul 15, 2020)

Bunk said:


> I liked any games I could beat my son at.  I think that was only pong and Nintendo hockey .
> Do you remember the Commodore 64 games.  I remember the Oregon Trail game.
> 
> Has anybody been to the Asheville Pinball Museum.  Missed it when we were there in October.  (Isn't it amazing how long ago anything that happened pre-Covid 19 seems)


THANK YOU!!!

I am planning to move to about an hour from there, was thinking recently, dang, I'm going to miss that pinball arcade up the road 2 hours ...  

You just made my day!!


----------



## travelpager (Jul 15, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Masks and social distancing are only partially effective.  I am for both, but those people who are :
> asthmatics, hypertensives, diabetics, and other immunocompromised persons, Type I diabetics, or elderly and the immunocompromised must act to protect themselves and not rely on the public to protect them. If these groups think they will get severely ill or die from exposure, they should hard quarantine, with aggressive disinfecting and distancing of family entering their homes, and use of medical grade PPE, even in home.



Thank you for your comment. I understand this position in the abstract. Still wondering how this translates in terms of the real examples cited in my post. My healthy teacher neighbor should disinfect thoroughly, check. As for the immunocompromised employee (small service-sector business storefront with reasonably supportive owner where she sells/interacts with public), she should don PPE + distancing and hope for the best or else somehow stop work pending [vaccine or whatever], correct? OK ... but if she loses her health OR income that's one less fully active consumer with dollars to support a restaurant, business or store. Does that matter? Should it matter, enough to ask/require everyone to help (vs hinder) efforts to minimize impact of virus?
Viewed from perspective of public health, your position raises questions in my mind regarding scale. Do we agree that the primary objective is to curb or halt spread of virus, even if we disagree on why or how? If so, I have two observations. First: Relative to the rubric you describe, I probably assign more value to an approach that engages, at a minimum, the support of all taxpayers/all of "the public" who are able and who would benefit from virus containment, instead of "working around" this or that person or group. If you want a bed available for your heart attack or emergency appendectomy, for example, you gotta be actively invested in stopping the spread, period. Same thing if your economy depends on consumer activity (shoppers, buyers) beyond your own. If a mask + distancing is better than nothing, to whatever degree, then I'm game.
Second: one can reasonably argue that the states/countries that have documented some level of success in stabilized infection/hospitalization rates adopted a management approach that they/I would describe as "cooperative" first but that others probably call "intrusive" first. (Both adjectives fit, by the way.) The point is that evidence based on actual practice (not theory) does not favor the "every one for him/herself" approach as the most effective or compatible with virus containment. I don't like or support all the tactics I've read about in other countries. Maybe the difference in preferences lies in one's belief in how much, as a practical matter, virus containment is work to be outsourced for others. All work is not my work. I'm not in an ER or out administering tests. I'm at home, an inconvenience I can accept in the grand scheme of things, an amendment to the social contract that underlies traffic laws and water/sewage service to my house. Whatever. Hate the virus, but I don't mind thinking about this stuff.


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 15, 2020)

*First baby reported to get coronavirus from mom in womb, study finds. Experts say cases are 'exceedingly rare.'*









						Doctors in France have found what they say is the world's first recorded case of a child contracting COVID-19 from its mother inside the womb
					

Doctors said the fetus's brain bore evidence of inflammation caused by the coronavirus, which had crossed the placenta into the baby's bloodstream.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Brett (Jul 15, 2020)

July  15  2020







The United States reported 67,400 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, a new record for cases reported in the country in a single day, according to a tally from John Hopkins University.  That marks the fourth time in eight days the U.S. has broken its record for new, confirmed cases.

https://www*.cbsnews.com/news/*coronavirus-record-cases-united-states-4th-time-8-days/


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 15, 2020)

*PASADENA TOURNAMENT OF ROSES UNABLE TO HOST 2021 ROSE PARADE ON NEW YEAR’S DAY*

With reluctance and tremendous disappointment, the Pasadena Tournament of Roses Association announces that, in accordance with Governor Newsom’s Phase IV re-opening schedule, and after thoughtful consideration of the restrictions and guidelines in place as a result of COVID-19, we are unable to host the 2021 Rose Parade.









						PASADENA TOURNAMENT OF ROSES UNABLE TO HOST 2021 ROSE PARADE ON NEW YEAR’S DAY - Tournament of Roses
					

With reluctance and tremendous disappointment, the Pasadena Tournament of Roses Association announces that, in accordance with Governor Newsom’s Phase IV re-opening schedule, and after thoughtful consideration of the restrictions and guidelines in place as a result of COVID-19, we are unable to...




					tournamentofroses.com


----------



## travelpager (Jul 15, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> There it is! Virtue signaling.



OK. I looked up the term, which was new to me (see attachments). At the risk of "virtue signaling" (again?), I have to wonder how often anyone is inclined to express publicly an opinion _for the purpose_ of demonstrating one's *weakness* of character? (shrug) Whatever and okey dokey. I will study your initial post as a model of not-virtue-signaling. There *must* be more to the magic of palatability than self-deprecation ("simple mind"?  ) and I aim to find it. Will keep the results to myself but thank you for broadening my horizons. My sons are laughing at me ("Oh no. Is this going to be like when that lady called you 'a Karen' on NextDoor? We hate when you learn new things, Mom.")  And no, I'm not "on the spectrum," just a supergeek who frequently/usually forgets to take offense, especially when a topic or idea grabs my interest.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 15, 2020)

It seems that the positivity rate was well overstated in Florida, some labs were only reporting the positive results.

*Coronavirus update: Florida labs not reporting negative test results, report says*









						Coronavirus update: Florida labs not reporting negative test results, report says
					

Incomplete reporting from some Florida laboratories resulted in errors on the state’s report on virus positivity rates, according to a central Florida news outlet.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Cornell (Jul 15, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> It seems that the positivity rate was well overstated in Florida, some labs were only reporting the positive results.
> 
> *Coronavirus update: Florida labs not reporting negative test results, report says*
> 
> ...


Queue the "conspiracy theory" comments


----------



## bluehende (Jul 15, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Queue the "conspiracy theory" comments


No just something that is not off Fox news, but from the Florida DOH


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 15, 2020)

More Covid tests more positive results;


bluehende said:


> No just something that is not off Fox news, but from the Florida DOH
> 
> View attachment 23650



Hopefully the deaths with Covid are not reported by the same  department that reported the  positivity rates.


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 15, 2020)

Honestly I don't see the officials in Florida doing anything to put quick end to this crisis. They are doomed. 

Oh and just wait for the next Hurricane to hit the State. How will the authorities deal with containing a rampant virus all  the  while opening schools and cleaning up a natural disaster.


----------



## Finsadbel (Jul 15, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> More Covid tests more positive results;
> 
> 
> Hopefully the deaths with Covid are not reported by the same department that reported the positivity rates.



Agree and disagree.

More testing will in fact produce more positive results. 

However, we have to eventually accept that weeks of disregard also produces more positive results.

Hence, more sick people equal more positive results.

Just a thought.....


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 15, 2020)

Sweden is now number 17 (16 Yesterday) in the combined list with all the states and countries ranked  by deaths /1,000,000 population. Maryland has surpassed it (slightly).


----------



## geekette (Jul 15, 2020)

Finsadbel said:


> Agree and disagree.
> 
> More testing will in fact produce more positive results.
> 
> ...


Yes.   It will be a good day when there are more negatives than positives.


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 15, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Honestly I don't see the officials in Florida doing anything to put quick end to this crisis. They are doomed.
> 
> Oh and just wait for the next Hurricane to hit the State. How will the authorities deal with containing a rampant virus all  the  while opening schools and cleaning up a natural disaster.



Yes I am full of negative comments when it comes to managing this crisis. No ill will towards the residents of FL. All of this could have been avoided. Italy and most of Europe managed to get this under control. NY, NJ, CT have it under control. The leadership of TX, AZ, FL are clueless! CA is showing common sense and making the right call.


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 15, 2020)

Finsadbel said:


> Great article!
> 
> New virus=limited data, hence why “science” changes.
> 
> ...



I have N95, and KN95 masks. We wear them to protect us. None of this cloth stuff. Yes at least wear a cloth mask if nothing else!


----------



## Yellowfin (Jul 15, 2020)

geekette said:


> Yes.   It will be a good day when there are more negatives than positives.


What do you mean by that? I do not think there has been a time with more positives than negatives


----------



## geekette (Jul 15, 2020)

Yellowfin said:


> What do you mean by that? I do not think there has been a time with more positives than negatives


I am certain that especially in the early days, most every test was positive because only sick people were being tested.   Then tests were shipped to known outbreak areas, not everywhere.   It's also going to depend on if you are talking about the nation as a whole, a state, a county.   There are far too many positives showing up.  

All I meant was, I look forward to the down trends, to everyone being able to get a test when they want a test (I could not today get a test if I wanted one, but, to qualify, I would have to be sick, the easiest qual for me to reach, so I'm ok with that), and barely a positive in huge batches.  There are too many positives per batch now.  Perhaps I didn't word precisely right.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 16, 2020)

geekette said:


> I am certain that especially in the early days, most every test was positive because only sick people were being tested.   Then tests were shipped to known outbreak areas, not everywhere.   It's also going to depend on if you are talking about the nation as a whole, a state, a county.   There are far too many positives showing up.
> 
> All I meant was, I look forward to the down trends, to everyone being able to get a test when they want a test (I could not today get a test if I wanted one, but, to qualify, I would have to be sick, the easiest qual for me to reach, so I'm ok with that), and barely a positive in huge batches.  There are too many positives per batch now.  Perhaps I didn't word precisely right.


I'm sure others will have quick access to charts and such, but your "certainty" is very misplaced.  At no time in the US were most tests positive.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 16, 2020)

T-Dot-Traveller said:


> Not my monkeys - not my circus
> Fern Modena -


Sorry. It is originally a Polish proverb:

Language: Polish
Translation: _Nie mój cyrk, nie moje malpy_
Meaning: Not my problem


----------



## cman (Jul 16, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> It seems that the positivity rate was well overstated in Florida, some labs were only reporting the positive results.



Not sure how you get "well overstated" from the article you posted. It said that some of the smaller labs had not reported the negatives. Unfortunately, the same Florida DOH responsible for providing the data to the public are the same clowns that should have caught this immediately. Florida's numbers have been shady since the beginning of this thing. For the longest they collected but refused to provide hospitalization data, they combine PCR and antigen test results, and they also count negative tests multiple times in calculating their percent positive numbers to drive down the percentage.

But the bottom line is that we know Floridas percent positive is out of control by the increasing number of new cases. If it were where it needs to be we simply wouldn't be seeing the massive increases in new infections. Here's a couple of articles on this topic;









						Florida’s hidden data skews COVID-19 test results
					

The method used to calculate the “positivity rate” — a critical measure of the coronavirus pandemic — puts more emphasis on negative tests, slanting the results in that direction.




					www.sun-sentinel.com
				












						High coronavirus positive case rate reveals flaws in Florida Department of Health report
					

For at least the past 11 days, the Florida Department of Health coronavirus report shows hundreds of laboratories are reporting 98 to 100% of COVID-19 tests are coming back positive and according to the DOH those statistics are because some private labs aren’t reporting their negative results at...




					www.clickorlando.com


----------



## rapmarks (Jul 16, 2020)

Has there been a factual analysis of the number of coronavirus cases resulting from the protests, the rioting, and the indoor rally?  was there an outbreak that can be attributed to any of these events?


----------



## Brett (Jul 16, 2020)

Wall Street Journal  
July 16  2020









As the pandemic pushes hospitals in the South and
West near capacity, the urgent need for available beds has
stranded patients in emergency rooms, scrambled ambulances
and forced patients to relocate hundreds of miles to relieve
overcrowded wards.


----------



## Conan (Jul 16, 2020)

rapmarks said:


> Has there been a factual analysis of the number of coronavirus cases resulting from the protests, the rioting, and the indoor rally?  was there an outbreak that can be attributed to any of these events?


"[W]e find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset. We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived."


			https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf
		


"The NBER is the nation's leading nonprofit economic research organization. Thirty Two Nobel Prize winners in Economics and thirteen past chairs of the President's Council of Economic Advisers have held NBER affiliations."








						About the NBER
					






					www.nber.org


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 16, 2020)

Conan said:


> "[W]e find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset. We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived."
> 
> 
> https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf
> ...


Did you really just cite an economics paper as some sort of proof the BLM protests and riots did not add to the COVID 19 transmission and spread?


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 16, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Did you really just cite an economics paper as some sort of proof the BLM protests and riots did not add to the COVID 19 transmission and spread?



It is very important to note that the research papers produced by NBER are working papers and are not peer-reviewed. In other words, the research is open to discussion and criticism. Some papers may contain bias and some could in fact be wrong. We give this source the least biased rating because the economists who are affiliated with the group come from all political affiliations. We give them a high factual reporting rating based on these papers being working papers and not stated as definitive fact. 









						National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
					

LEAST BIASED These sources have minimal bias and use very few loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or




					mediabiasfactcheck.com


----------



## bluehende (Jul 16, 2020)

Conan said:


> "[W]e find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset. We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived."
> 
> 
> https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf
> ...


Thanks for posting.  I had seen anecdotal evidence it had no effect. It is nice to see a real study.  I imagine a lot here will not accept that the data shows a small decrease in infections due to the protests.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 16, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Did you really just cite an economics paper as some sort of proof the BLM protests and riots did not add to the COVID 19 transmission and spread?


Did you read it?  It certainly isn't definitive and actually states that other factors may influence the observation that there were in fact NO increases in cases.  Papers showing something else are welcome here for scrutiny if you have any.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 16, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Did you read it?  It certainly isn't definitive and actually states that other factors may influence the observation that there were in fact NO increases in cases.  Papers showing something else are welcome here for scrutiny if you have any.


I'll be sure and check with the _*Snack Food Association *_or the _*International Union of Bricklayers & Allied Craftworkers *_for their latest thoughts...


----------



## bluehende (Jul 16, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I'll be sure and check with the _*Snack Food Association *_or the _*International Union of Bricklayers & Allied Craftworkers *_for their latest thoughts...


So no you have no data to show the opposite.  If those organizations have a research group that has a paper on this topic it is welcome here.  Or you can read the paper and have actual criticism of how they collected or analyzed their data.  I am really confused by your animosity for an economic group studying aspects of covid 19.  Is that not the biggest economic issue facing us.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

The NBER study is very interesting. It goes as far as asserting that the protests might have* lowered* the COVID transmission because people were afraid to go out due to the perceived danger. Let that sink in for a minute. We had thousands, if not tens of thousands of protesters in some cities, all gathered in limited areas downtown. Some were wearing masks, some weren't. According the the study, those people made other people stay home and that lowered the transmission but the people gathered there were not a problem  . The study does not mention that the streets had been virtually empty before the protests so who stayed home for the fear of the protests and who was going to stay home anyways? The study also ignores that some people must have lived further from the areas of protests and they had to get there by car (more than one household?) or public transit.

The bigger problem with the study though  is that according to its own admission (page 6) :
"Our data on protests are collected from May 25, 2020, the day George Floyd was killed,
*through June 20, 2020* from 315 U.S. cities with municipal populations estimated at 100,000 or
more in 2019"

As we know, it takes weeks from the moment of the initial transmission to a person and to the next and to the next is reflected in the official data. Because the data gathering stopped before June 20th 2020, the study did not actually look at the increase in number of infections due to the protests, it just claimed to do so. Why other studies did not look at the data after that? Why this study did not continue after June 20th? We all know the answer, it accomplished the goal, it was published everywhere and "fact checked". Case closed, the protests did not contribute to the increase in transmission, next!

So IMHO you guys do not have a study to show either.

The protests continue to this day so they may continue to lower the transmission of the virus!  Thank Goodness. As I said before, I am not against protests in general and this one in particular (the non-violent part of course) but the double standard between what we are told transmits the virus and what does not is striking.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 16, 2020)

From the paper...."
Furthermore, we find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset."

This is good news.!!!
We can conclude that large groups of people , that wear masks, in close confines don't reignite C19. So, let's open up the schools!  The people writing this paper are all educators.  I'm sure they'd love to return to their jobs and teaching.


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Jul 16, 2020)

I read the following article today.  I find it odd that some labs are reporting 100% positives.  How is that possible?  Skewing the numbers?  For what reason?









						Florida reported 100% positive COVID-19 tests from some labs. That's wrong, hospital system says.
					

The Lee Health hospital system says that its lab testing of potential COVID-19 cases has shown an overall positivity rate of about 18%.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## wilma (Jul 16, 2020)

Cornell said:


> From the paper...."
> Furthermore, we find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset."
> 
> This is good news.!!!
> We can conclude that large groups of people , that wear masks, in close confines don't reignite C19. So, let's open up the schools!  The people writing this paper are all educators.  I'm sure they'd love to return to their jobs and teaching.



These protests were outdoors so I suppose to do the school reopening experiment you would need to hold school outdoors.


----------



## Conan (Jul 16, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Did you really just cite an economics paper as some sort of proof the BLM protests and riots did not add to the COVID 19 transmission and spread?


I don't answer rhetorical questions.

Here's a map of black lives protests




Here's a map of cases, color-coded to show areas with the greatest increases.




I tend to focus on the Northeast because that's where I live. I don't see any correlation. Do you?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

wilma said:


> These protests were outdoors so I suppose to do the school reopening experiment you would need to hold school outdoors.


When some protests looked like this, does it even matter that they were outdoors? There was just not enough social distancing period.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 16, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> When some protests looked like this, does it even matter that they were outdoors? There was just not enough social distancing period.
> View attachment 23668


No comment on the almost universal mask usage?????


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

Conan said:


> I don't answer rhetorical questions.
> 
> Here's a map of black lives protests
> View attachment 23666
> ...


Miami  for example had  big increases  but the image you show is too large to reflect that. The area that includes Miami is in orange and not red because of the suburbs and the other smaller communities. You are not comparing apples to apples because you have Miami on one map and the Miami-Dade county on the other map. This is true for most large cities, the counties include vast areas and not just where the protests have taken place.


----------



## Brett (Jul 16, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> When some protests looked like this, does it even matter that they were outdoors? There was just not enough social distancing period.




 all those confederate statues in Florida !


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

bluehende said:


> No comment on the almost universal mask usage?????


can you define please "almost universal"?


----------



## bluehende (Jul 16, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> The study does not mention that the streets had been virtually empty before the protests so who stayed home for the fear of the protests and who was going to stay home anyways? The study also ignores that some people must have lived further from the areas of protests and they had to get there by car (more than one household?) or public transit.





DannyTS said:


> As we know, it takes weeks from the moment of the initial transmission to a person and to the next and to the next is reflected in the official data. Because the data gathering stopped before June 20th 2020, the study did not actually look at the increase in number of infections due to the protests, it just claimed to do so. Why other studies did not look at the data after that? Why this study did not continue after June 20th? We all know the answer, it accomplished the goal, it was published everywhere and "fact checked". Case closed, the protests did not contribute to the increase in transmission, next!


Both of these were discussed at length in the study.


----------



## Brett (Jul 16, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> can you define please "almost universal"?



sure
Florida Beaches "re-opening"


----------



## ilene13 (Jul 16, 2020)

[Deleted:  I know this thread is already off the rails, but political comments are not permitted on TUG.]


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

Brett said:


> sure
> Florida Beaches "re-opening"
> View attachment 23672


Your picture shows it was taken during the spring break. Was the spring break in June?


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Both of these were discussed at length in the study.


let's discuss them here


----------



## Brett (Jul 16, 2020)

ilene13 said:


> I live in Sarasota, Florida.  Our governor is a moron--he needs to shut down beaches, mandate masks and limit restaurants to take out and out door dining.  It is appalling!



some think it's all a "media hoax"

July 16  2020


----------



## ilene13 (Jul 16, 2020)

Brett said:


> some think it's all a "media hoax"
> 
> July 16  2020
> 
> View attachment 23673


 My husband is a physician on the front lines and he would tell you that it is not a hoax!!


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Queue the "conspiracy theory" comments





Brett said:


> some think it's all a "media hoax"



There you go. Your comment delayed it a little bit but such comments can only be held off for so long.


----------



## Conan (Jul 16, 2020)

This thread is rife with references to protests, riots, and the handy conflations "protests and riots" and "protests/riots."

You really think that's where a significant portion of our 3,500,000 acknowledged U.S. cases and 137,000 deaths came from?

So you get to post your favorite pictures of "protestors," but I can't mention why these protests are happening because that would be crossing the line into _politics?_


----------



## WVBaker (Jul 16, 2020)

A question to which there is no definitive answer. When or where did one become infected?

Carry on.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 16, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> I read the following article today.  I find it odd that some labs are reporting 100% positives.  How is that possible?  Skewing the numbers?  For what reason?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You read the article and came to the conclusion that labs were reporting 100% positives?

The article describes a giant cluster f_(k of data mismanagement, where the hospitals claim the state department of health misreported their testing results. 

Nothing in the article says the correct results were actually 100%.


----------



## Monykalyn (Jul 16, 2020)

Brett said:


> Wall Street Journal
> July 16  2020
> 
> View attachment 23663View attachment 23664
> ...


What are the 10 largest states by population?
*Here is a list of the top ten most populated states in the country:*

California (Population: 39,747,267)
Texas (Population: 29,087,070)
Florida (Population: 21,646,155)
New York (Population: 19,491,339)
Pennsylvania (Population: 12,813,969)
They are also the largest population states. At any given time I'd expect more hospital beds full in the largest states, so having a new illness - one without a comprehensive treatment plan yet-it stands to reason they'd have more covid hospitalizations as well. Did the article give any baseline factors? 









						Bad flu seasons test US hospitals
					

Infectious Diseases in Children | Hospitals in the United States implemented new policies based on the severe 2017-2018 influenza season, but experts agree that America’s health care systems would still be seriously challenged by another bad season.According to interviews, tight resources and...




					www.healio.com
				




Talks about flu season stretching hospitals, but good overall review of hospital and capacity.  And the funding cuts over the decades that have led to reducing hospital surge ability. But sure glad the defense budget keeps growing/s


----------



## Monykalyn (Jul 16, 2020)

Finsadbel said:


> “Initially there was a significant shortage of masks for frontline workers, which was why authorities were reluctant to recommend mask wearing to the general public.”


 So why did CLOTH face coverings suddenly become OK? And why-knowing it was a respiratory virus not recommend cloth face coverings from the start? Fauci made mistakes-like any human-but I don't get the hero worship and absolutely cannot criticize anything ever again



Conan said:


> I don't answer rhetorical questions.
> 
> Here's a map of black lives protests
> View attachment 23666
> ...


and now look at population density map...almost looks the same!


ilene13 said:


> shut down beaches


Please explain rationale and the science behind "shutting down the beaches" when the science shows LOW transmission risk outdoors, especially beaches where breezes, sunlight and space are all the things every expert agrees keeps transmission low? Shut down indoor beach bars, yes. Beaches-no rational nor scientific reason to do so.


----------



## Cornell (Jul 16, 2020)

@Monykalyn I have always wondered this about the mask reco's .  The argument that always gets tossed is that masks weren't recommended at the beginning b/c of a fear of PPE shortages.  Why couldn't our gov't officials have directed the American public to use bandanas, making masks with household fabrics (which has become a cottage industry) at the onset?


----------



## WinniWoman (Jul 16, 2020)

I can’t believe you guys are still at this! Lol!


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 16, 2020)

Stop the insanity.  Just wear a frickin mask. Preferably N95 or KN95.


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 16, 2020)

Search the news Gov of Maryland  situation is hopeless.


----------



## Finsadbel (Jul 16, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> So why did CLOTH face coverings suddenly become OK? And why-knowing it was a respiratory virus not recommend cloth face coverings from the start? Fauci made mistakes-like any human-but I don't get the hero worship and absolutely cannot criticize anything ever again
> 
> 
> and now look at population density map...almost looks the same!
> ...



My response was in reference to mask wearing in general. The main argument has always been that Fauci “made a mistake” in saying not to wear masks. If you place his statement in context with what was going on at the time, you will remember there was a shortage of surgical/N95 masks. This was created by national panic buying by individuals who thought they would be better “protected”, leaving little to none for healthcare providers. 

I am not here to argue Fauci’s intent or state of mind on masks. Neither have I partook in the “hero worship”. 

Furthermore, I am a supporter of ANY face covering. I do that based on a science based approach and evidence based practice. I was wearing face coverings PRIOR to the recommendation that cloth face coverings should be included, not that it matters.

Lastly, I’m not on here to argue politics or who said what/when. I simply stated that if you are to use a statement, use that statement IN CONTEXT. Science is ever changing and opinions will change as we learn more about the virus. So for right now, I think face coverings and social distancing are our best options - based on science.


----------



## wilma (Jul 16, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @Monykalyn I have always wondered this about the mask reco's .  The argument that always gets tossed is that masks weren't recommended at the beginning b/c of a fear of PPE shortages.  Why couldn't our gov't officials have directed the American public to use bandanas, making masks with household fabrics (which has become a cottage industry) at the onset?


Yes, govt is stupid, don't ever believe anything they say. It's a new virus and people were learning new information. Even though masks are now recommended many people still object. Next time we have a novel virus pandemic we will put you and Danny in charge and it will be perfectly run.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 16, 2020)

Instead of starting a new thread since this one has meandered a bit









						Yet another study of hydroxychloroquine just found that it doesn't work to treat the coronavirus
					

People taking the pills to treat mild cases of COVID-19 did no better than a placebo group and suffered more side effects, a new study finds.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 16, 2020)

Masks are the new seatbelt!








						Salesforce CEO says masks are like seatbelts: The government should step up and fine people who aren't wearing one
					

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff thinks masks — like seatbelts in cars — need to be part of the American way of life if the country is to overcome the coronavirus pandemic.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Instead of starting a new thread since this one has meandered a bit
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I could not find the actual study to look at the age distribution but the good news is that the death rate was 0.4% and not higher for both placebo and HCQ.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

So sad, an unnecessary death due to the initial panic that the fatality rate was thought to be ten times more than it is known now.

*Alberta father-of-two dies after 'non-essential' heart surgery postponed due to COVID-19









						Alberta father-of-two dies after 'non-essential' heart surgery postponed due to COVID-19
					

Jerry Dunham, 47, suffered a heart attack less than two months after learning his pacemaker surgery had been cancelled.




					ca.style.yahoo.com
				



*


----------



## Brett (Jul 16, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Masks are the new seatbelt!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




seat belts take away our "freedom" !
https://www.businessinsider.com/when-americans-went-to-war-against-seat-belts-2020-5


----------



## geist1223 (Jul 16, 2020)

I believe that initially the Medical Community thought Covid19 was more of a contact disease - don't touch your face, wipe everything down, etc. They have since decided it is spread more by small droplets in the air.


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 16, 2020)

Brett said:


> seat belts take away our "freedom" !
> https://www.businessinsider.com/when-americans-went-to-war-against-seat-belts-2020-5




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1283425792945459203


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 16, 2020)

so true:

"Without Sweden and a few similar outliers, it would be far easier for central planners to say, _Sure, lockdowns were harsh and destructive. But we had no choice._ "





__





						Why Sweden Succeeded in “Flattening the Curve” and New York Failed | Jon Miltimore
					

If flattening the curve was the primary goal of policymakers, Sweden was a success. New York, on the other hand, was not, despite widespread closures and strict enforcement of social distancing policies. Sweden’s approach of encouraging social distancing by giving responsibility to individuals...



					fee.org


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 16, 2020)

Latest MedCram (97) on an overview of Vitamin D. Good stuff!






Med Cram 96 is also good  on Moderna Vaccine and Ivermectin.


----------



## Finsadbel (Jul 16, 2020)

Good video and interesting research. I’ve been following some journals on this. 

Still too early to tell how/if it’s going to be effective on COVID-19.





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




And then there is this:









						Vitamin D deficiency may raise risk of getting COVID-19
					

UChicago Medicine researchers show association between untreated vitamin D deficiency and susceptibility to coronavirus infection.




					www.uchicagomedicine.org
				




From one end to the other.....


----------



## Monykalyn (Jul 16, 2020)

@Ralph Sir Edward I listened to both those today. I really like how he breaks down the research and pathophysiology of why it would work or not.  I also listen to the Osterholm update. It was really good this week on schools opening.








						Episode 16: Reopening Schools Part 1
					

In this episode, Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss considerations for reopening schools in the Fall, the concept of superspreaders and their role in the transmission of COVID-19, and recent statements regarding vaccines and masks. Email us your questions: OsterholmUpdate@umn.edu




					www.cidrap.umn.edu
				





Finsadbel said:


> My response was in reference to mask wearing in general. The main argument has always been that Fauci “made a mistake” in saying not to wear masks. If you place his statement in context with what was going on at the time, you will remember there was a shortage of surgical/N95 masks. This was created by national panic buying by individuals who thought they would be better “protected”, leaving little to none for healthcare providers.


ok STILL doesn't explain why cloth face coverings weren't good enough then...
"He also acknowledged that masks were initially not recommended to the general public so that first responders wouldn’t feel the strain of a shortage of PPE."








						Fauci: why the public wasn’t told to wear masks when the coronavirus pandemic began
					

The infectious disease expert also discussed why they are necessary.




					thehill.com
				






wilma said:


> Yes, govt is stupid, don't ever believe anything they say. It's a new virus and people were learning new information. Even though masks are now recommended many people still object. Next time we have a novel virus pandemic we will put you and Danny in charge and it will be perfectly run.


 See above. It was never about "new information" it was about misinformation.


DannyTS said:


> So sad



But Danny-it's not a covid death! The extra few million world wide who will succumb to starvation or other opportunistic diseases before this year is even out (not to mention the increase in easily preventable childhood diseases due to super delayed vaccinations around the world) just get dismissed.  
But seriously-this is why politicians need to step the heck back, get REAL experts from all areas (doctors/HCW frontline and research experts, business leaders, economists, community leaders etc) to be on a task force to guide the way forward. You cannot just have ONE aspect or the response is so lopsided there WILL be backlash/severe consequences.


----------



## travelpager (Jul 16, 2020)

Mid-pandemic, US hospitals are directed to start reporting certain Covid19-related data to HHS instead of CDC.
This worries me.  CDC will have access to HHS Protect, but I find the timing and the actual policy decision troubling at best.
I wish the vendor contract to administer the database for HHS had followed a competitive bidding process, but the "new" reporting protocol is by far the bigger issue.

[The (hyperlinked) sentence is my wording. I don't swear by the source, Modern Healthcare, but the key facts in the piece are confirmed or disproved easily enough. Reference to the no-bid vendor contract hyperlinks to a different source.]


----------



## Rolltydr (Jul 16, 2020)

Brett said:


> seat belts take away our "freedom" !
> https://www.businessinsider.com/when-americans-went-to-war-against-seat-belts-2020-5


It’s unconstitutional to save lives! That’s why there is a right to bear assault rifles!


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 16, 2020)

Coronavirus Live Updates: New Cases in the U.S. Soar to More Than 74,000, Shattering the Record
					

Two-thirds of global cases have come from the U.S., Brazil, South Africa and India. The National Security Agency said a hacking group associated with Russian intelligence was targeting health care organizations to gain intelligence about vaccines.




					www.nytimes.com
				




USA! USA! USA! Yeah! Now that's what I call Freedom! We don't need no stinkin Masks!    Beating a dead horse!


----------



## Rolltydr (Jul 16, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Coronavirus Live Updates: New Cases in the U.S. Soar to More Than 74,000, Shattering the Record
> 
> 
> Two-thirds of global cases have come from the U.S., Brazil, South Africa and India. The National Security Agency said a hacking group associated with Russian intelligence was targeting health care organizations to gain intelligence about vaccines.
> ...


How could we keep drinking the koolaid if we had to wear masks?


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 16, 2020)

Here is a good map from Harvard.









						Risk Levels - Global Epidemics
					

RISK LEVELS First published in July 2020, our Covid-19 risk levels dashboard tracks the pandemic in real time and has provided consistent information about risk levels based on daily case counts.   DASHBOARD How severe is the pandemic where you live? For questions about the dashboard, please...




					globalepidemics.org


----------



## Finsadbel (Jul 16, 2020)

@Monykalyn that’s a good question. I, like yourself, am perplexed.

I do remember quite a bit of discussion on the matter, and there still are a lot of questions on effectiveness, but I think we’ve gotten to a “better than nothing “stage.

Limiting/eliminating contagious aerosolized droplets is the goal. What we are seeing this virus do in younger/healthy patients is beyond disturbing. And even more so in the at risk population.


----------



## DeniseM (Jul 16, 2020)

I don't know why I am bothering to close this thread, but it's off the rails, again.  
I will be glad when you guys go back to work and get a life - some of you are completely obsessed with this topic.


----------

