# How will Canadian airlines survive?



## jabberwocky (Dec 9, 2020)

I flew into Toronto from Edmonton earlier this week with my parents.  Mid-day flight that is usually quite busy when I’ve flown in pre-covid times (even now they are running up to four flights on that route per day, down from 7-8 per day).

Our flight had 35 people on board. This was on a Airbus 321 which has a capacity of 190 people.

I have no idea how these airlines will survive. I just hope they are around for us to use all of the non-refunded credits they are holding onto!


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## moonstone (Dec 9, 2020)

Yes, things don't look very good for either WestJet or Air Canada right now.  Our oldest DS used to fly on Air Canada almost weekly for work, but has only taken 1 return flight since March. He said there were only a few people on board the return flight (YVR>YYZ), so few that the FA stood and talked to him for about an hour, since he seemed to 'know him' from being on so many of the same flights in the last few years.

We have had 3 flights from Toronto to Belize for the end of this month cancelled by WestJet in the last few months. Last week after they cancelled for the 3rd time, we called to get a refund even though we were eligible for a travel credit good for 2 years. Who knows if they'll still be flying by then?  WestJet has cancelled all of this winters flights to Belize and I've heard that Air Canada has severely cut back or cancelled all theirs as well.  We rebooked on Delta, even though  we didn't want a stop-over in the USA, but we now have no choice other than staying home for the winter.  Not very many folks are travelling and the airlines cant afford to keep flying nearly empty planes.  I think they're waiting for a Gov't bailout. 


~Diane


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## AJCts411 (Dec 11, 2020)

Rather than the government handing out tax dollars to the airlines...the expensive easy solution...ask why there is NOT any testing, per fight and upon your return, being implemented?   Now I did not say the airlines are not vital and worthy, I did not say anything about if this presents a increase in transmition rate so get off you soap boxes.  Question is why are effective reasonable alternate solutions not being allowed?  There is something in the order of 15,000 airline employees plus all the indirect ones who are being suported by tax dollars right now.  Seems testing would be a cheap alternative.


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## bogey21 (Dec 11, 2020)

I'm not for Nationalizing anything but if I were, my first choice for Nationalization  would be the airlines....

George


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## jabberwocky (Dec 23, 2020)

moonstone said:


> Yes, things don't look very good for either WestJet or Air Canada right now.  Our oldest DS used to fly on Air Canada almost weekly for work, but has only taken 1 return flight since March. He said there were only a few people on board the return flight (YVR>YYZ), so few that the FA stood and talked to him for about an hour, since he seemed to 'know him' from being on so many of the same flights in the last few years.
> 
> We have had 3 flights from Toronto to Belize for the end of this month cancelled by WestJet in the last few months. Last week after they cancelled for the 3rd time, we called to get a refund even though we were eligible for a travel credit good for 2 years. Who knows if they'll still be flying by then?  WestJet has cancelled all of this winters flights to Belize and I've heard that Air Canada has severely cut back or cancelled all theirs as well.  We rebooked on Delta, even though  we didn't want a stop-over in the USA, but we now have no choice other than staying home for the winter.  Not very many folks are travelling and the airlines cant afford to keep flying nearly empty planes.  I think they're waiting for a Gov't bailout.
> 
> ...


WestJet and Air Canada have been canceling a lot of flights. It's to the point where I'm now looking at United as my airline of choice.  I'd much rather support the Canadian airlines - they do need it, but when I have to deal with having my 10 am direct flight changed to a 1 am red-eye connecting flight, stability remains supreme.  

I'm back in Edmonton now.  Flight back was about 50% full.  I was a bit disturbed by several people (about five) getting on-board the return flight in Toronto without having proper masks that meet Transport Canada's requirements.  The gate agents are supposed to check these and not let them board, but they did anyway. The service director was disturbed by this and phoned in a complaint before we took off. The offending travelers were good about putting on replacement masks when asked.

My mom is still waiting for her surgery in Toronto - was supposed to be done on the 14th but they had to reduce the number of surgical slots at Toronto General due to covid.  She's been told it's now day-by-day, but will likely be early January now.  They don't want her to fly home due to the risks and her health condition. So my parents will be in downtown Toronto for Christmas with us joining by Facetime (which was our original plan anyway) - at least hotels are cheap right now!  I'm going to make a trip back to Toronto the first week in January to check on them.


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## dioxide45 (Dec 23, 2020)

Ultimately there is a market there (when C-19 is behind us), so they may rise from the ashes in a different form. It isn't like air travel in, to and from Canada will stop. So there will still be some Canadian airline, it may just look completely different and of course those travel funds from cancellations would be lost.


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## jabberwocky (Dec 23, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> Ultimately there is a market there (when C-19 is behind us), so they may rise from the ashes in a different form. It isn't like air travel in, to and from Canada will stop. So there will still be some Canadian airline, it may just look completely different and of course those travel funds from cancellations would be lost.


You are right that the market will always be there.  Even despite official recommendations against travel, there are significant numbers of Canadian's heading south (not just to US).  There has been some speculation that the gov't may open up the Canadian market by allowing majority ownership by non-Canadian shareholders.  It would be interesting to see if WestJet or Air Canada would merge with a US airline in that instance.  

As for those of us with travel credits - burn them as fast as you can.  They will be worthless in any sort of bankruptcy.


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## Maple_Leaf (Dec 29, 2020)

Canada is functionally carved up like a pizza pie with these interprovincial 14-day quarantine requirements choking off travel. Most cities in the Maritimes are now without reliable airline service.


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## Ironwood (Dec 29, 2020)

A friend is a senior pilot with Air Canada and nearing retirement.  I haven't seen him in months, as his wife tells us he's never been as busy, with long haul flights to China and South America...all cargo!  AC has converted several of its Boeing 767-300 extended range aircraft to pure freighters with the growth in freight from CV related demand.


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## jabberwocky (Dec 29, 2020)

Ironwood said:


> A friend is a senior pilot with Air Canada and nearing retirement.  I haven't seen him in months, as his wife tells us he's never been as busy, with long haul flights to China and South America...all cargo!  AC has converted several of its Boeing 767-300 extended range aircraft to pure freighters with the growth in freight from CV related demand.


For those pilots rated on the long-haul aircraft this is a good alternative - although I think passenger flights are still more profitable.

Are you sure it is the 767-300ER and not the 777-300ER that have been converted? A YVR to PVG (probably shortest viable cargo route) would be right at the edge of a 767 range. Forget about anything running to China from YYZ. South America I could see this working.

Of course I would be thrilled if they converted all of the 767 permanently to cargo since those are all Rouge planes!


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## bizaro86 (Dec 30, 2020)

Definitely 767-300ER. See: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/air-canada-provides-update-on-cargo-business-808486137.html

Part of it is that cargo is a lot less picky than passengers about making a fuel stop. Cargo flights from Asia to the east often stop in Alaska. 

Carrying less fuel also allows the plane to carry more of its maximum take-off weight as cargo, which is how they pay the bills.


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## Ironwood (Dec 30, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> Are you sure it is the 767-300ER and not the 777-300ER that have been converted? A YVR to PVG (probably shortest viable cargo route) would be right at the edge of a 767 range. Forget about anything running to China from YYZ. South America I could see this working.
> 
> Of course I would be thrilled if they converted all of the 767 permanently to cargo since those are all Rouge planes!



Perhaps both planes are being converted to cargo.   Here's the excerpt I saw in a piece at the beginning of the month... *Air Canada* (TSX: AC) confirmed Friday that it plans to *convert* several Boeing 767-300 Extended Range *aircraft* to pure *freighters* to take advantage of expected airfreight growth.


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## bizaro86 (Dec 30, 2020)

Ironwood said:


> Perhaps both planes are being converted to cargo.   Here's the excerpt I saw in a piece at the beginning of the month... *Air Canada* (TSX: AC) confirmed Friday that it plans to *convert* several Boeing 767-300 Extended Range *aircraft* to pure *freighters* to take advantage of expected airfreight growth.



I think because the 767 are closer to the end of their life anyway the conversion makes sense. The 777-300ER is the biggest plane they have, and in good times makes a great deal of money on flagship routes.


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