# A Mysterious Virus in Central China Has Infected Dozens, Raising Fears of a New Epidemic. Here's What to Know



## MULTIZ321

A Mysterious Virus in Centra] China Has Infected Dozens, Raising Fears of a New Epidemic. Here's What to Know.










						A Second Travel-Related Case of Coronavirus Has Been Confirmed in the U.S
					

The death toll from the virus has risen to 26




					time.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

China's Sars-like illness worries health experts.










						China's Sars-like illness worries health experts
					

China’s viral pneumonia outbreak may have jumped species barrier, raising fears of pandemic




					www.theguardian.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Six more people have come down with China's mystery virus.










						Six more people have come down with China's mystery virus
					

China’s mystery pneumonia is continuing its spread, with a further six confirmed cases of the illness now being reported in Hong Kong. The illness, which has been traced to the Chinese city of Wuhan, is believed to have originated in or around the seafood markets there, though it’s still unclear...




					bgr.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

China virus outbreak connected with single seafood market not spreading elsewhere: WHO.










						China virus outbreak connected with single seafood market not spreading elsewhere: WHO - National | Globalnews.ca
					

The WHO says no cases have been reported elsewhere in China or internationally.




					globalnews.ca
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

VIRAL PLAGUE Mystery deadly virus that causes lung lesions has 'infected hundreds' and
sweeping China and Japan, scientists warn.










						Mystery killer virus that causes lung lesions has 'infected hundreds'
					

HUNDREDS of people have been infected by a mystery virus sweeping China and Japan, scientists warned today. The SARS-like virus that causes lung lesions has already killed two people and is spreadi…




					www.thesun.co.uk
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'










						New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
					

The virus emerged in December, two people have died and it has been detected in three countries.




					www.bbc.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

China Reports New Cases of Deadly Virus, Adding
to Outbreak Concerns.










						China Reports New Cases of Deadly Virus, Adding to Outbreak Concerns
					

The spread of the pneumonialike illness comes ahead of Lunar New Year, when hundreds of millions of people in China will travel.




					www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

China to step up countermeasures as virus outbreak grows.










						China to step up countermeasures as virus outbreak grows
					

China will step up efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan ahead of...




					www.reuters.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus spreads to Beijing as China confirms 139 new cases.










						Coronavirus spreads to Beijing as China confirms 139 new cases
					

Two new cases confirmed in Chinese capital and one in southern Guangdong province amid fears of virus spreading over lunar new year




					www.theguardian.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

VIRUS STRIKES British tourist fighting for life in Thailand feared to be first western victim of
mystery Chinese coronavirus.










						Brit fighting for life in Thailand is feared to be first Chinese virus victim
					

A UK tourist fighting for his life in Thailand is feared to be the first western victim of the Chinese flu-like coronavirus. Ash Shorley, 32, was rushed to hospital in Phuket after a pneumonia-styl…




					www.thesun.co.uk
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

What We Know About China's New Coronavirus.










						What We Know About China’s New Coronavirus
					

A respiratory illness has killed at least three people in China and sickened more than 200. Cases have also been reported in Japan, South Korea and Thailand.




					www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

The Wuhan Pneumonia Crisis Highlights the
Danger in China's Opaque Way of Doing Things.










						Wuhan Outbreak Highlights Danger of China's Opaque System
					

Downplaying the spread of a deadly new virus is a dangerous strategy




					time.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Human-to-human transmission of coionavirus in
China confirmed.










						Human-to-human transmission of coronavirus in China confirmed
					

For weeks officials had reported the number of cases to be "at least 41," but since then the number has risen to over 200.




					www.foxnews.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

China coronavirus: WHO to hold emergency meeting as Sars-like virus spreads in Asia.










						China coronavirus: WHO to hold emergency meeting as virus spreads in Asia
					

Committee will decide whether to declare outbreak an international public health emergency – a rare move only used for the gravest epidemics.




					www.scmp.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

New Virus Kills Sixth Person After Human-to- Human Transmission Confirmed.










						New Virus Kills Sixth Person After Human-to-Human Transmission Confirmed
					

Health officials in China have confirmed that a mysterious new virus which originated in the city of Wuhan can be transmitted from human-to-human, not just from animals to humans. The news comes after a sixth person has died from the virus and at least 15 health care workers have been infected...




					gizmodo.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

First Wuhan Coronavirus Patient Identified in the United States.










						First Wuhan Coronavirus Patient Identified in the United States
					

A person in Washington State is infected with a new respiratory virus. The outbreak began at a market in China and now has spread to at least four other countries.




					www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Wuhan: The London-sized city where the virus began.










						Wuhan: The London-sized city where the virus began
					

It may not be as famous as Beijing or Shanghai, but Wuhan is a huge city with global connections.




					www.bbc.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Chinese city at epicentre of coronavirus outbreak put on lockdown.










						Chinese city at epicentre of coronavirus outbreak put on lockdown
					

The city at the centre of a mystery virus sweeping through China and beyond has been put on lockdown as authorities battle to contain this fast-moving outbreak.




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

How Does Wuhan Coronavirus Compare With MERS, SARS And The Common Cold?










						How Does Wuhan Coronavirus Compare With MERS, SARS And The Common Cold?
					

The virus that has emerged in China is part of a family known as coronaviruses. Here's how some of the best-known coronaviruses compare with this newly identified member of the viral family.




					www.npr.org
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

'This time I'm scared': SARS virologist warns Wuhan virusfar worse, as China locks down second city.










						Wuhan virus death toll rises to 26 as China moves to restrict travel in more cities
					

Authorities in China have halted public transport and imposed hardening states of urban lockdown on more than 25 million people in seven cities




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

These Pictures Give A Glimpse Of What It's Like Inside The Chinese City On Lockdown That's At The Center Of The Coronavirus Outbreak.










						These Pictures Give A Glimpse Of What It's Like Inside The Chinese City On Lockdown That's At The Center Of The Coronavirus Outbreak
					

Wuhan, home to 11 million people, is on lockdown.




					www.buzzfeed.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Massachusetts Department of Public llealth issues coronavirus outbreak advisory to health care
providers.



Richard 









						State DPH issues coronavirus advisory to health care providers
					

Risk here called ‘low’ but healthcare facilities told to isolated any patients with suspected exposures.




					www.masslive.com


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## MULTIZ321

State Department issues travel advisory, urges Americans to reconsider travel to China as
coronavirus spreads.










						CDC issues level 3 health warning for coronavirus, advises against nonessential travel to Wuhan, China
					

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday escalated its health warning to a level 3 as the coronavirus continues to spread, recommending that passengers to avoid all nonessential travel to Wuhan, China.




					www.cnbc.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

FIVE UK patients are tested for coronavirus: Suspected victims in Scotland and Northern Ireland are taken into isolation after returning from Wuhan with flu-like symptoms as Health Secretary is urged to order checks on passengers on ALL flights
from China.










						Coronavirus fears in Scotland as two Chinese patients in hospital
					

Tests have so far failed to rule out coronavirus. The patients - who are in isolation - are being treated at Glasgow's Queen Elizabeth University Hospital.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

World airports taking precaution after China virus ourbreak.









						World airports taking precautions after China virus ourbreak
					

Airports around the world have begun taking precautions to deal with an anticipated influx of Chinese tourists taking Lunar New Year holidays, just as the outbreak of a pneumonia-like virus in China has prompted officials there to take drastic measures to prevent its spread.



					www.ctvnews.ca
				



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Richard


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## Panina

Sadly people could land and not have symptoms yet thus still spread it.


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## moonstone

The following is in the news here in Belize today.  It's really spreading.  








						Yucatan with a confirmed case of coronavirus
					

MERIDA Yucatán – Yesterday, while President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was reporting a possible case of coronavirus in Tamaulipas, in this city of Mérida, a woman had tested positive for HKU…




					www.theyucatantimes.com
				




~Diane


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## clifffaith

Panina said:


> Sadly people could land and not have symptoms yet thus still spread it.



I believe the one (as of yesterday) American case presented himself at a hospital and immediately let them know where he'd been and that he had suspicious symptoms so they could isolate him. I'm sure they're checking to see where he was between the airport and showing up at the hospital. Makes me think he wanted to come home to US medical care rather than being stuck in a foreign country -- especially after they shut that city down and all the US reporters were getting out in the middle of the night.


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## MULTIZ321

Chinese Airlines Told to Provide Free Cancellations on Domestic Flights.










						Chinese Airlines Told to Provide Free Cancellations on Domestic Flights - Caixin Global
					

Chinese Airlines Told to Provide Free Cancellations on Domestic Flights



					www.caixinglobal.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Chinese city at center of virus outbreak is major crossroads.










						Chinese city at center of virus outbreak is major crossroads
					

The city of Wuhan is one of China's largest industrial hubs and a major crossroads. The capital of Hubei province has 11 million people and is under an unprecedented, open-ended lockdown to try to...




					apnews.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

New Coronavirus From China Spreads in 6 Countries, 2 More Suspect it.









						New Coronavirus From China Spreads In 6 Countries, 2 More Suspect It
					

More than 800 persons have been inflicted with the new 2019-nCoV Coronavirus and 25 have lost their lives so far, according to Chinese officials




					www.entrepreneur.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Disney closes Shanghai park as deadly coronavirus spreads.










						Disney closes Shanghai park as deadly coronavirus spreads
					

Disney is closing down its Shanghai resort over the lucrative Lunar New Year holiday, amid growing fears over the deadly Wuhan coronavirus.




					www.cnn.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

US State Department issues 'Do not Travel' advisory for Wuhan, China, amid coronavirus outbreak.










						Coronavirus: US says 'do not travel' to Wuhan, China, as airlines issue waivers, add safeguards
					

The State Department issued a special warning for Wuhan, China, the source of the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, a second case has been confirmed.



					www.usatoday.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

China Hurriedly Building Quarantine Center in
Effort To Contain Wuhan Virus.










						China Hurriedly Building Quarantine Center In Effort To Contain Wuhan Virus
					

Hundreds of workers were told to get the center near the city of Wuhan built in under a week as authorities cope with the new viral pneumonia that has killed 26 people and infected 876 others.




					www.npr.org
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Wuhan, China, is scrambling to build a hospital in just 6 days to treat coronavirus patients its health system gets overwhelmed.










						Wuhan, China, is scrambling to build a hospital in just 6 days to treat coronavirus patients as its health system gets overwhelmed
					

Wuhan is in lockdown over the deadly virus, and doctors say existing hospitals are severely overwhelmed.




					www.insider.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

2nd IJ.S. Case Of Coronavirus Hint At Virus' Spread.










						2nd U.S. Case Of Coronavirus Hints At Virus’ Spread
					

The new U.S. patient is in Chicago, and recently traveled to Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have started.



					www.forbes.com
				



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Richard


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## CPNY

It’s getting bad! Dead bodies in the hallways of hospitals. Why do they have to eat bat soup?! Chicken and pork isn’t good enough?!  My lord. Now we all suffer. It’s in the US and will grow. Anyone ever see Last man on earth? It’s happening. Someone call Dustin Hoffman and Cuba Gooding JR cause we are having an outbreak.


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## andre10056

I would think that people at greatest risk in the US are college students.  Their schools are filled with students from mainland China who just returned to school after going home over the winter semester break.


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## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus outbreak: doctor in Wuhan hospital dies as arm medics flown in.










						Coronavirus outbreak: doctor in Wuhan hospital dies as army medics flown in
					

Liang Wudong, 62, died after treating patients in Wuhan amid signs that health workers are struggling to cope with the outbreak




					www.theguardian.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

'T'hree coronavirus cases confirmed in France, first in Europe.










						Three coronavirus cases confirmed in France, first in Europe
					

Three cases of the coronavirus have been "confirmed" in France, the first in Europe, officials said Friday.




					www.jacarandafm.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Factbox: The latest on the coronavirus spreading in China and beyond.










						Factbox: The latest on the coronavirus spreading in China and beyond
					

An outbreak of a new coronavirus that began in the central Chinese city of Wuhan...




					uk.reuters.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

US prepares to evacuate all 1,000 of its citizens and diplomats from Wuhan.










						US prepares to evacuate its citizens and diplomats from Wuhan
					

The US government is arranging a charter flight on Sunday to bring its citizens and diplomats back from  Wuhan - the Chinese city where the coronavirus outbreak originated.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Canada prepares for the new coronavirus as the
death toll in China keeps rising.










						Canada prepares for the new coronavirus
					

TORONTO - As the new coronavirus claims more lives in China, health authorities in this country are trying to reassure Canadians that plans and procedures are in place to protect them. While no cases have yet been confirmed in Canada, Dr. Peter Donnelly, with Public Health Ontario, said Friday...




					www.winnipegfreepress.com
				



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Richard


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## clifffaith

andre10056 said:


> I would think that people at greatest risk in the US are college students.  Their schools are filled with students from mainland China who just returned to school after going home over the winter semester break.



I was perfectly happy not to play cards with our Italian friends this week as they were welcoming their Chinese high school students back from Christmas break. I wondered how many families also hosting students had health concerns, in addition to families just sending their kids to school with newly arrived from China kids.


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## moonstone

MULTIZ321 said:


> Canada prepares for the new coronavirus as the
> death toll in China keeps rising.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada prepares for the new coronavirus
> 
> 
> TORONTO - As the new coronavirus claims more lives in China, health authorities in this country are trying to reassure Canadians that plans and procedures are in place to protect them. While no cases have yet been confirmed in Canada, Dr. Peter Donnelly, with Public Health Ontario, said Friday...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.winnipegfreepress.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> Richard



A confirmed case now in Toronto!  Why was this man allowed out of the isolation zone (Wuhan) and able to board a plane for Toronto (or anywhere)?  I read in one news report that a passenger on the plane tweeted Canadian Immigration as soon as the plane landed in Toronto to say that a sick passenger was on the flight from China needs to be checked when they go through customs. 









						First 'presumptive' Canadian case of coronavirus confirmed in Toronto
					

The first “presumptive positive” Canadian case of the coronavirus, which has led to the death of at least 41 people in China, has been confirmed in Toronto, Ontario health authorities say.



					toronto.ctvnews.ca
				





~Diane


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## MULTIZ321

Seven China's nationals hospitalized from hotel in Moscow.










						Seven China’s nationals hospitalized from hotel in Moscow
					

They have been diagnosed with high fever, the agency’s source says




					tass.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Here's what you need to know about Canada's first
'presumptive' coronavirus case.










						Here’s what you need to know about Canada’s first ‘presumptive’ coronavirus case  | Globalnews.ca
					

Public health officials say the risk of an outbreak remains low and that the health care system is working as planned.




					globalnews.ca
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

American trapped at tne epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak says she's angry and scared.










						American trapped at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak says she's angry and scared | CNN
					

A US citizen trapped at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China described her fear of living in a city that's cut off from the rest of the country by transport restrictions.




					www.cnn.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

The WHO held off on declaring the Wuhan
coronavirus a g]obal health emergency. Here's why.




			https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/26/who-held-off-declaring-wuhan-coronavirus-global-health-emergency-heres-why/
		



Richard


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## moonstone

Infection can spread before a person shows any symptoms. 








						5 US coronavirus cases now confirmed; infection can spread before symptoms show
					

A fifth U.S. case of the new coronavirus that has killed more than 50 people in China has been confirmed in Southern California.



					www.usatoday.com
				



Now that is scary! 

~Diane


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## Carol C

Guess who is booked for a bucket-list tour of China next month? It all started with a Groupon I bought last April. Obviously I am not going, and I lost $, and I will not get $ back. I knew in my gut around New Years this coronavirus could be bad, and my travel companion/friend, a retired nurse, said I was worrying about nothing. I don't have the leisure time to be stuck in a quarantine upon my return from China to LAX...and then I would have to face another screening in ATL before returning home. I have always been a timeshare or independent traveler and never used a travel agency before. This was the first and last time I would book a trip of this scale via Groupon and an un-tested travel agency. Money down the drain, but I think my life is worth more than $1500.


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## MULTIZ321

Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally.










						Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally
					

Description of earliest cases suggests outbreak began elsewhere




					www.sciencemag.org
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Incredible footage shows China's 1,000-bed coronavirus hospital starting to take shape after just FOUR DAYS of construction as the nation rushes to build three MORE.










						China's 1,000-bed coronavirus hospital takes shape after four days
					

Chinese authorities have ordered four construction companies to toil through the Chinese New Year holiday to complete the six-acre medical centre in Wuhan's Caidian District in a week.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

GROUND ZERO Killer coronavirus outbreak DID start at food market selling koalas, snakes, rats and
wolf cubs, tests confirm.










						Killer coronavirus outbreak DID start at food market selling koalas, snakes, rats and wolf cubs, tests confirm
					

THE killer coronavirus outbreak DID start at a food market in Wuhan where snakes, rats, beavers, wolf cubs and even koalas are regularly slaughtered to order. Experts from the Chinese Centre for Di…




					www.thesun.co.uk
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

An Update on China's ''Six- Day Hospital Build" to Tackle Coronavirus in Wuhan.










						An Update on China's "Six-Day Hospital Build" to Tackle Coronavirus in Wuhan   - Core77
					

It's remarkable that you can speed up footage of humans building things in a group, and it totally resembles insect behavior: That's footage of construction workers in Wuhan, racing to build a 25,000-square-meter (270,000-square-foot) hospital to handle the sudden rise in Coronavirus-infected...




					www.core77.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Trump administration expands screening for
coronavirus to 20 US airports.










						Trump administration expands screening for coronavirus to 20 US airports
					

Health Secretary Alex Azar warned that the coronavirus raging across mainland China is a "potentially very serious public health threat."




					www.cnbc.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Americans Trapped in Wuhan Aren't Angry at the Chinese Government. They're Angry at Their Own.










						Why Americans Trapped in Wuhan Are Angry at the U.S. Government
					

As the deadly coronavirus continues to spread, they feel abandoned by their own.




					time.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Surgical Masks to Prevent Coronavirus? Not So Fast.










						Surgical Masks to Prevent Coronavirus? Not So Fast
					

With the news of the coronavirus spreading and confirmed cases in the United States, people are buying up surgical masks. Experts say you don't need them.




					www.fatherly.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Americans evacuated from virus-hit China set to land home as death toll soars to 132.










						Americans evacuated from virus-hit China set to land home
					

The plane landed in Alaska from Wuhan, China, the center of the coronavirus outbreak.




					www.nbcnews.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus hits cruise lines: 'Every lost voyage' could cost $4 million in revenue.










						Coronavirus hits cruise lines: 'Every lost voyage' could cost $4 million in revenue
					

The exponential spread of the coronavirus is upending the travel industry with cruise operators being hit particularly hard.




					finance.yahoo.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

How the coronavirus is being felt across Canada from the chilly waters off B.C. to companies in
Toronto.










						How the coronavirus is being felt across Canada — from the chilly waters off B.C. to companies in Toronto
					

As the number of those killed and infected increases, everything from oyster sales to air travel to the production of the superalloys has been affected




					business.financialpost.com
				



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Richard


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## pedro47

Just reported there is a lady on a cruise ship in Italy. That has been reported with the coronavirus symptoms .


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## MULTIZ321

Article: How the coronavirus outbreak is affecting travel.










						How the coronavirus outbreak is affecting travel
					

Two major US airlines have suspended some flight routes to China.




					www.vox.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Carnival Reports Suspected Coronavirus on One of lts Ships.










						Carnival Reports Suspected Coronavirus on One of Its Ships
					

Carnival drops after a report says one of its cruise ships in Europe is being investigated for potential cases of coronavirus on board.




					www.thestreet.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

6,000 passengers stuck on cruise ship in Italy over
coronavirus fears.










						6,000 passengers stuck on cruise ship in Italy over coronavirus fears
					

Huge liner remains on lockdown though preliminary tests on two passengers suggest they are not carrying virus




					www.theguardian.com
				



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Richard


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## 1Kflyerguy

Carol C said:


> Guess who is booked for a bucket-list tour of China next month? It all started with a Groupon I bought last April. Obviously I am not going, and I lost $, and I will not get $ back. I knew in my gut around New Years this coronavirus could be bad, and my travel companion/friend, a retired nurse, said I was worrying about nothing. I don't have the leisure time to be stuck in a quarantine upon my return from China to LAX...and then I would have to face another screening in ATL before returning home. I have always been a timeshare or independent traveler and never used a travel agency before. This was the first and last time I would book a trip of this scale via Groupon and an un-tested travel agency. Money down the drain, but I think my life is worth more than $1500.



Did you happen to buy travel insurance?

My company has banned all travel to China.

As of today many airlines are either canceling all flights or severely restricting their schedules.


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## VacationForever

My husband and I have decided to cancel non-essential upcoming trips which involve travelling with others in a confined space like an airplane or cruise ship.  While we may be overly paranoid but that is our position.  We have cancelled 2 cruises and a trip to Ko Olina in April.  While we bought travel insurance we won't be able to claim against the insurance since we have not been forced into the cancellations.


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## MULTIZ321

Listen: World Health Organization declares coronavirus a global public health emergency.










						Listen to World Health Organization declares coronavirus a global public health emergency | Audioburst
					

Aired on KNX 1070 NEWSRADIO: right now though the World Health Organization has declared the outbreak of the new virus from China a global emergency this after the numbe




					search.audioburst.com
				



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Richard


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## lily28

I booked flight on Hainan airline going to China using both flight network internet travel agency and chase portal on 1/18/2020.  I called yesterday to both travel agencies and able to get full refund back without penalty.  I did pay using sapphire reserve, I figure i can potentially make claim using chase travel insurance if I have to cancel. 
I read that the Chinese airline are allowing cancellation without penalty while us based airline allow change and cancellation for travel to 2/28/20 for Beijing and Shanghai and for Wuhan 3/30/20. so depend which airline you are using. 
If your travel agency doesn’t allow cancellation now, then maybe wait and see. If the situation get worse and travel is banned, you can then ask for refund


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## Panina

VacationForever said:


> My husband and I have decided to cancel non-essential upcoming trips which involve travelling with others in a confined space like an airplane or cruise ship.  While we may be overly paranoid but that is our position.  We have cancelled 2 cruises and a trip to Ko Olina in April.  While we bought travel insurance we won't be able to claim against the insurance since we have not been forced into the cancellations.


I agree, last time I traveled with others I got the flu.  I am still concerned about getting it again, a different strain.  Add the new virus just adds to the concern.

Where  I am still traveling, I also don’t want to do traveling with others in confined spaces.  I am suppose to go to DVC soon and now have another reservation for Marco Island for the same week.  Haven’t convinced my other half yet, he thinks I am nuts and wants to go to Disney.  I just think, less people, less touching, less chance to get sick.  Yes it only takes one other person to make me sick and they can be in Marco Island but somehow it makes me feel better to go to Marco Island, maybe because I like it better.


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## VacationForever

Panina said:


> I agree, last time I traveled with others I got the flu.  I am still concerned about getting it again, a different strain.  Add the new virus just adds to the concern.
> 
> Where  I am still traveling, I also don’t want to do traveling with others in confined spaces.  I am suppose to go to DVC soon and now have another reservation for Marco Island for the same week.  Haven’t convinced my other half yet, he thinks I am nuts and wants to go to Disney.  I just think, less people, less touching, less chance to get sick.  Yes it only takes one other person to make me sick and they can be in Marco Island but somehow it makes me feel better to go to Marco Island, maybe because I like it better.



I think DVC is germy in general.  Marco Island should be alot safer, presumably that you will drive there.  We have been in Palm Desert, CA for the past 12 days.  It is a driving trip.


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## MULTIZ321

American Airlines pilots sue to force cancellation of all flights to China as coronavirus spreads.










						Pilots just sued American Airlines to force a halt to China flights
					

The union is telling American pilots to refuse to fly to China, too




					www.theverge.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Italy suspends all China flights after coronavirus cases confirmed.










						Italy suspends all China flights after coronavirus cases confirmed
					

ROME, Italy - The Italian government said Thursday it was suspending all flights between Italy and China after doctors confirmed two Chinese tourists had tested positive for the coronavirus.




					news.abs-cbn.com
				



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Richard


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## VacationForever

Travel to/from world's second largest economy is being cut off.  This will surely affect the stock market as businesses will be severely impacted.  Hang on for the ride.


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## Synergy

I have to admit, I have let myself get a bit antsy since our day trip to Honolulu and Pearl Harbor.  So many people wearing face masks at the airport, and a fair number at the memorial.  After that, I've been way too cognizant of things I usually don't notice at all.  I find myself wishing I could recognize languages.  Or that I knew what language they speak in Wuhan.   I am young(ish) and healthy, but I find myself worrying anyway =/


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## mdurette

There is a news story going around our area about a local guy that has been working in China that is trying to get home to avoid this.    I read the posts on the FB local news article.   So many are commenting they don't want him to return, just in case he has it.   Poor guy will probably walk around the local grocery store and people will run!

I was looking around the CDC website and noticed a section for airline instructions.    Basically it said if they believe a person to be ill.   Try to separate them from others (6 feet) and assign only 1 FA to care for them.    Wonder who is the unlucky FA that gets to do that!

Disney Cruise Line just issued a statement that if you have been in or flew through China within the last 14 days, you will not be able to board one of their ships.


----------



## WVBaker

MULTIZ321 said:


> GROUND ZERO Killer coronavirus outbreak DID start at food market selling koalas, snakes, rats and
> wolf cubs, tests confirm.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Killer coronavirus outbreak DID start at food market selling koalas, snakes, rats and wolf cubs, tests confirm
> 
> 
> THE killer coronavirus outbreak DID start at a food market in Wuhan where snakes, rats, beavers, wolf cubs and even koalas are regularly slaughtered to order. Experts from the Chinese Centre for Di…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thesun.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Richard



And somehow we found Iguanas strange to eat?   

Now we have this as well.

The new coronavirus is believed to have emerged from illegally traded wildlife at a seafood market in Wuhan. Although bats have been named in recent research from China as a possible source of the virus, bat soup is not particularly commonplace in the country and the investigations into its exact origins continue.









						China coronavirus: Misinformation spreads online about origin and scale
					

The outbreak of the new coronavirus has led to the spread of misleading videos and conspiracy theories online



					www.bbc.com


----------



## easyrider

WVBaker said:


> And somehow we found Iguanas strange to eat?
> 
> Now we have this as well.
> 
> The new coronavirus is believed to have emerged from illegally traded wildlife at a seafood market in Wuhan. Although bats have been named in recent research from China as a possible source of the virus, bat soup is not particularly commonplace in the country and the investigations into its exact origins continue.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China coronavirus: Misinformation spreads online about origin and scale
> 
> 
> The outbreak of the new coronavirus has led to the spread of misleading videos and conspiracy theories online
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



How does a person order bat and when you do order bat does it come with flies ? 

Bill


----------



## jabberwocky

Synergy said:


> I have to admit, I have let myself get a bit antsy since our day trip to Honolulu and Pearl Harbor.  So many people wearing face masks at the airport, and a fair number at the memorial.  After that, I've been way too cognizant of things I usually don't notice at all.  I find myself wishing I could recognize languages.  Or that I knew what language they speak in Wuhan.   I am young(ish) and healthy, but I find myself worrying anyway =/


I’m not sure what language has to do with transmission of the virus. I haven’t been to Wuhan but I’m pretty sure they speak Mandarin (along with just about everyone else in Mainland China ).


----------



## VacationForever

Synergy said:


> I have to admit, I have let myself get a bit antsy since our day trip to Honolulu and Pearl Harbor.  So many people wearing face masks at the airport, and a fair number at the memorial.  After that, I've been way too cognizant of things I usually don't notice at all.  I find myself wishing I could recognize languages.  Or that I knew what language they speak in Wuhan.   I am young(ish) and healthy, but I find myself worrying anyway =/


There are more than 200 dialects spoken in China and they do not sound anything like one another.  A person from one dialect group does not understand someone from another dialect group.  So even amongst Chinese, they are unable to understand another dialect, let alone identify where they are from.  Mandarin is the official language which is taught in school but outside of Beijing, Chinese do not speak Mandarin amongst themselves.


----------



## VacationForever

jabberwocky said:


> I’m not sure what language has to do with transmission of the virus. I haven’t been to Wuhan but I’m pretty sure they speak Mandarin (along with just about everyone else in Mainland China ).


Not true at all. See my post above.


----------



## jabberwocky

VacationForever said:


> There are more than 200 dialects spoken in China and they do not sound anything like one another.  A person from one dialect group does not understand someone from another dialect group.  So even amongst Chinese, they are unable to understand another dialect, let alone identify where they are from.  Mandarin is the official language which is taught in school but outside of Beijing, Chinese do not speak Mandarin amongst themselves.


Hmmmm...I do know there are different dialects but Mandarin is widely used outside of Beijing between native Chinese - or at least that has been my general observation in the larger urban centers like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing etc.

Just for the record I’m a guy whose grandparents came from Europe. I do go over for work about five to six times per year (my trip next week is cancelled  ). I only speak a tiny bit of Mandarin (enough to get by in a restaurant).I do notice the differences in how easy it is to follow some conversations Between native Chinese speakers in different cities (I find the more northern parts easier to understand) but it is still largely Mandarin they are using.


----------



## VacationForever

jabberwocky said:


> Hmmmm...I do know there are different dialects but Mandarin is widely used outside of Beijing between native Chinese - or at least that has been my general observation in the larger urban centers like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing etc.
> 
> Just for the record I’m a guy whose grandparents came from Europe. I do go over for work about five to six times per year (my trip next week is cancelled  ). I only speak a tiny bit of Mandarin (enough to get by in a restaurant).I do notice the differences in how easy it is to follow some conversations Between native Chinese speakers in different cities (I find the more northern parts easier to understand) but it is still largely Mandarin they are using.


Chinese knows how to communicate in Mandarin if needed as they learn it in school.  Outside of Beijing, Mandarin is not generally spoken unless they have to for work or as a conduit between dialect groups.  Try listening to someone in say, Shanghai.  The language sounds as different as Korean and in fact it is hard to tell them apart.

People in Shenzhen speak Cantonese, which is the same in Hong Kong and Guangzhou.  But when you go outside of Guangzhou, there are many other dialects within Canton, which are all dissimilar.


----------



## Synergy

I am hopeless with languages - I read Spanish quite well, but I can't tell which 'flavor' of Spanish is being spoken when I'm conversing or listening - this after a lifetime of living in Florida.  I assumed (you know what assuming does!) that a skilled soul would be able to recognize the Wuhan 'flavor' whether that is a language or a dialect.  

Regardless, they're telling people they don't have any legitimate reason to be concerned unless they've been in close contact with travelers from Wuhan.  I'm sure we are fine - we haven't been in close contact with anyone but each other - but a sea of masks at an airport is disconcerting just the same.


----------



## WVBaker

easyrider said:


> How does a person order bat and when you do order bat does it come with flies ?
> 
> Bill


I will never have to consider that option.


----------



## MULTIZ321

SCIENTISTS SAW CORONAVIRUS COMING THEY HAVE BEEN WARNING US FOR DECADES.










						Scientists have been warning us about coronavirus for years
					

"We’ve been raising the flag on them for 15 years."




					www.inverse.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

China Then And Now: Why Coronavirus is A Bigger Threat To Global Economy Than Previous
Outbreaks.










						China Then And Now: Why Coronavirus Is A Bigger Threat To Global Economy Than Previous Outbreaks
					

China's economy is bigger and more intertwined with the U.S than ever before.



					www.forbes.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Wuhan Coronavirus 'Super-Spreaders' Could Be Wildcards.










						Wuhan Coronavirus ‘Super-Spreaders’ Could Be Wildcards
					

Tracking the spread of disease requires precision and math. But super-spreaders, who transmit germs faster and further than other patients, can confound the model.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


----------



## VacationForever

Synergy said:


> I am hopeless with languages - I read Spanish quite well, but I can't tell which 'flavor' of Spanish is being spoken when I'm conversing or listening - this after a lifetime of living in Florida.  I assumed (you know what assuming does!) that a skilled soul would be able to recognize the Wuhan 'flavor' whether that is a language or a dialect.
> 
> Regardless, they're telling people they don't have any legitimate reason to be concerned unless they've been in close contact with travelers from Wuhan.  I'm sure we are fine - we haven't been in close contact with anyone but each other - but a sea of masks at an airport is disconcerting just the same.


The problem with Chinese dialects in China is that they are really individual languages using the same written form.  There is no flavor, just separate languages in which are entirely foreign languages to someone who speaks a different Chinese dialect.


----------



## MULTIZ321

A medical-surveillance system that China implemented after SARS led officials to discover the novel coronavirus within I week - here's
how it works.










						A medical-surveillance system that China implemented after SARS led officials to discover the novel coronavirus within 1 week — here's how it works
					

An online database allows doctors to upload information on infectious diseases in real time, which is how they detected this coronavirus so quickly.




					www.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

New Wuhan hospital ready in 10 days, Chinese army to oversee.










						New Wuhan hospital ready in 10 days, Chinese army to oversee
					

Some 1,400 military medics will treat patients at the 1,000-bed hospital, dubbed 'Fire God Mountain', which will receive its first patients on Monday.People in the city of 11 million people, which has been under quarantine for more than a week, have complained of waiting hours in line to see a...




					www.livemint.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## clifffaith

Earlier this week something was said on one of the news broadcasts that sent me to Wkipedia to read up on the Spanish Flu in 1918 (turns out it got labeled Spanish because everyone other than Spain was under news blackouts because they were at war, so Spain mentioned it in writing first and got stuck with it). Very sobering reading about disease spread in a time when the fastest mode of travel was by ship. Oh, I just remembered why I went to Wiki. We were watching Lester report the newest outbreak news and I said to Cliff "if this isn't The Big One, sooner or later it will happen". That made me want to find info on 1918.


----------



## Firepath

I wonder if this is related to the Coronavirus dogs are vaccinated against. Hmm, a market with dogs....


----------



## MULTIZ321

clifffaith said:


> Earlier this week something was said on one of the news broadcasts that sent me to Wkipedia to read up on the Spanish Flu in 1918 (turns out it got labeled Spanish because everyone other than Spain was under news blackouts because they were at war, so Spain mentioned it in writing first and got stuck with it). Very sobering reading about disease spread in a time when the fastest mode of travel was by ship. Oh, I just remembered why I went to Wiki. We were watching Lester report the newest outbreak news and I said to Cliff "if this isn't The Big One, sooner or later it will happen". That made me want to find info on 1918.


Hi Faith,

My maternal grandmother lost young twins in the 1918 Flu Pandemic. If you are interested in learning more, a good book on the subject is:
"Flu: The Story Of The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus that Caused it" by Gina Kolata.


Richard


----------



## Panina

clifffaith said:


> Earlier this week something was said on one of the news broadcasts that sent me to Wkipedia to read up on the Spanish Flu in 1918 (turns out it got labeled Spanish because everyone other than Spain was under news blackouts because they were at war, so Spain mentioned it in writing first and got stuck with it). Very sobering reading about disease spread in a time when the fastest mode of travel was by ship. Oh, I just remembered why I went to Wiki. We were watching Lester report the newest outbreak news and I said to Cliff "if this isn't The Big One, sooner or later it will happen". That made me want to find info on 1918.


It has been happening before our eyes.  Since October the CDC estimates there have been 10,000 to 25,000 deaths due to the flu.  At any time the strain can mutate  and cause many more deaths.  The Coronavirus has scared us because of how fast it is spreading. What we really don’t know is how long ago China knew about it and kept it a secret.  








						Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates
					

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## MULTIZ321

No, You Won't Catch The New Coronavirus Via
packages Or Mail From China.










						No, You Won't Catch The New Coronavirus Via Packages Or Mail From China
					

Experts in infectious disease say viruses like the novel coronavirus don't survive long on surfaces. And there's no evidence from similar outbreaks that anyone got infected by handling a package.




					www.npr.org
				



.


Richard


----------



## VacationForever

Panina said:


> The Coronavirus has scared us because of how fast it is spreading. What we really don’t know is how long ago China knew about it and kept it a secret.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates
> 
> 
> CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov


With the speed of how quickly this thing is spreading, there is no way it happened before it was first reported.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Built in 10 days, China's virus hospital takes lst patients.










						Built in 10 days, China's virus hospital takes 1st patients
					

BEIJING (AP) — The first patients arrived Monday at a 1,000-bed hospital built in 10 days as part of China's sweeping efforts to fight a new virus that is causing global alarm.  Huoshenshan...




					apnews.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Carol C

VacationForever said:


> Travel to/from world's second largest economy is being cut off.  This will surely affect the stock market as businesses will be severely impacted.  Hang on for the ride.



Stock market? More like "shock market". Big losses in the Asian markets already. I also predict travel companies, hotel chains, RCI/WYN, airlines...all are going to have sales to entice folks to travel. It's slow season right now...then this virus is hitting big-time and still a mystery. Btw, I am promised to get my $$ back...they are sorting it out. My China visa might not be refunded. And meanwhile...my fave cousin is married to a 92 year old man from Taiwan who just had his birthday January 26, and their daughter bought Stan a roundtrip ticket to fly back to see family and friends for lunar New Year. Egads...now I am so worried about him and them! He's traveling alone and the airports supply wheelchairs and help, but what happens if he arrives back in SFO and so much as sneezes or coughs? They might quarantine him! It's not something I would want to do even at my age, to be stuck in quarantine somewhere. At age 92, well...I am hoping for the best, but frankly there's no way I would have gone. To each his own!


----------



## MULTIZ321

A construction expert broke down how China built an emergency hospital to treat Wuhan coronavirus
patients in just 10 days.










						A construction expert broke down how China built an emergency hospital to treat Wuhan coronavirus patients in just 10 days
					

The Huoshenshan hospital was modeled on the blueprints of a medical facility in Beijing, which was set to help tackle the SARS epidemic in 2003.




					www.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

This is the difference between a pandemic and an epidemic as coronavirus has now reached 27 countries.










						This is the difference between a pandemic and an epidemic as coronavirus has now reached 27 countries
					






					www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Passepartout

The Chinese doctor who raised the alarm on a 'Mysterious new Virus' in Wuhan, China has died from the disease. Age 41. R.I.P.








						Wuhan hospital announces death of whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang | CNN
					

Li Wenliang, the Chinese whistleblower doctor who warned the public of a potential "SARS-like" disease in December 2019, has died, according to Wuhan Central Hospital. The confirmation follows a series of conflicting statements about his condition from the hospital and Chinese state media outlets.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## Panina

Passepartout said:


> The Chinese doctor who raised the alarm on a 'Mysterious new Virus' in Wuhan, China has died from the disease. Age 41. R.I.P.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wuhan hospital announces death of whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang | CNN
> 
> 
> Li Wenliang, the Chinese whistleblower doctor who warned the public of a potential "SARS-like" disease in December 2019, has died, according to Wuhan Central Hospital. The confirmation follows a series of conflicting statements about his condition from the hospital and Chinese state media outlets.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edition.cnn.com


I hope he was given the best help available and wasn’t silenced.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus kills Chinese whistleblower doctor.










						Coronavirus kills Chinese whistleblower doctor
					

The hospital in Wuhan treating Li Wenliang confirms his death after a day of confused reports.




					www.bbc.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

China's unprecedented quarantine of 11 million people in Wuhan is 2 weeks old. llere's what it is like in the isolated city.










						China's unprecedented quarantine of 11 million people in Wuhan is 2 weeks old. Here's what it's like in the isolated city.
					

Being sprayed with disinfectant in the street, making memes, and getting regular temperature checks are parts of daily life in Wuhan.




					www.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus on track to kill more people than Sars,
experts say.










						Coronavirus on track to kill more people than Sars, experts say
					

The new contagion may be far less deadly than severe acute respiratory syndrome but it has already infected more than four times as many people.




					www.scmp.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus: No change to recommended quarantine despite study suggesting 24-day
incubation period, says WHO.










						Coronavirus: No change to recommended quarantine despite study suggesting 24-day incubation period, says WHO
					

SINGAPORE - The World Health Organisation (WHO) is not currently considering a change to its recommended 14-day quarantine period, despite new research by a team of Chinese scientists that has suggested the new coronavirus could have a long incubation period of up to 24 days.. Read more at...




					www.straitstimes.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Africa has been spared so far from coronavirus. Why?.










						Africa has been spared so far from coronavirus. Why? | DW | 14.02.2020
					

Some 24 countries apart from China have registered cases of the coronavirus, now officially named Covid-19. None of them are in Africa, despite the increasingly tight links between the two regions. DW explores why.




					m.dw.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus spreads in 3 main ways: This one worries the CDC most.










						Coronavirus Spreads In 3 Main Ways: This One Worries The CDC Most
					

As the number of cases of coronavirus COVID-19 grows worldwide, the US CDC has detailed the primary ways in which the SARS-like illness could be…




					www.slashgear.com
				





Richard


----------



## Panina

Interesting in this article
”CDC has focused on surveillance to track cases and containment strategies to slow possible progression of the virus in the United States. Slowing progression gives more time for researchers to work on developing and testing a vaccine and antiviral drugs for this novel coronavirus. Currently, there is no known cure for the virus.”

"The containment phase is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year,"

CDC director: Novel coronavirus 'is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year'








						CDC director: Novel coronavirus 'is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year'
					

As an outbreak of a novel coronavirus has swept through Hubei province, China, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been preparing for its worst case scenario -- a widespread outbreak of illnesses in the United States.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## MULTIZ321

France announces lst death of virus patient outside Asia.










						France announces 1st death of virus patient outside Asia
					

PARIS (AP) — France on Saturday reported the first death outside Asia of a person infected with the new virus from China, an 80-year-old Chinese tourist who two French hospitals initially turned...




					apnews.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

US coronavirus patient who was 'world's first'  treated with experimental Gilead drug 'remdesivir' and recovered.










						US coronavirus patient was ‘world’s first’ treated with experimental drug
					

Doctors administered experimental antiviral Gilead drug to man who showed signs of developing pneumonia. The patient's fever went away the day after treatment, and he began feeling better.




					www.scmp.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Unusual COVID-19 cases discovered in Henan, infection sources unknown, showing strong contagiosity.







						Unusual COVID-19 cases discovered in Henan, infection sources unknown, showing strong contagiosity - Global Times
					






					www.globaltimes.cn
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Virus Kills Chinese Film Director and Family in Wuhan.










						Virus Kills Chinese Film Director and Family in Wuhan
					

A Chinese film director and his entire family have died from the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. Chang Kai, a film director and an external communications officer at a Hu…




					variety.com
				





Richard


----------



## caribbeanqueen

We have a friend who travels to China frequently. He says this is much worse than China is letting on, so much so that he is considering quitting his job.  The CDC came out when this first came to light and said they did not see this spreading much in the US.  I hear other reports stating it will be a pandemic and they see it spreading as much as the flu here and we will need a vaccine as described above.  While I am not one to panic or not vacation due to this, I also am not ignorant enough to believe this could not continue to spread faster and kill many more which could possibly change my thinking in the future.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus latest: First infection detected in Africa.










						Coronavirus latest: First infection detected in Africa
					

Updates on the respiratory illness that has infected tens of thousands of people.




					www.nature.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

"The disruption is enormous." Coronavirus epidemic snarls science worldwide.










						“The disruption is enormous.” Coronavirus epidemic snarls science worldwide
					

Experiments lost as labs remain closed; scientific meetings canceled or postponed




					www.sciencemag.org
				



.


Richard


----------



## Fredflintstone

Panina said:


> It has been happening before our eyes. Since October the CDC estimates there have been 10,000 to 25,000 deaths due to the flu. At any time the strain can mutate and cause many more deaths. The Coronavirus has scared us because of how fast it is spreading. What we really don’t know is how long ago China knew about it and kept it a secret.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates
> 
> 
> CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov



The cynical part of me wonders whether these viruses are a “no fingers pointed” way to control population. I used to have a contact in China who asserted The Chinese government was trying to find ways to get their population under control and they were seriously considering unleashing a virus to do the job. Hmmmm. I certainly hope not. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus: Wuhan hospital boss Liu Zhiming dies after infection.










						Coronavirus: Wuhan hospital boss Liu Zhiming dies after infection
					

Hospital boss 'sacrificed' in battle against the deadly virus.




					www.nzherald.co.nz
				



.


Richard


----------



## Panina

Fredflintstone said:


> The cynical part of me wonders whether these viruses are a “no fingers pointed” way to control population. I used to have a contact in China who asserted The Chinese government was trying to find ways to get their population under control and they were seriously considering unleashing a virus to do the job. Hmmmm. I certainly hope not.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


We will never know the real numbers, the how’s or why’s from China.  As it take hold in the US and Canada we will find out more, the real statistics and how it spreads and what can be done.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Chinese Media Declares Hospital Director Dead
From COVID-19, Then Alive, Then Dead Again.










						Chinese Media Declares Hospital Director Dead From COVID-19, Then Alive, Then Dead Again
					

Liu Zhiming, the 51-year-old director of Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan, China, died at 10:54 AM local time Tuesday morning after being infected with  coronavirus, according to the Wuhan Health Commission. Multiple Chinese state media outlets like the People’s Daily and Global Times reported Liu’s...




					gizmodo.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Singapore unveils multi-billion dollar package to weather virus 










						Singapore plans biggest budget deficit in years to meet virus threat By Reuters
					

Singapore plans biggest budget deficit in years to meet virus threat




					m.investing.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

How coronavirus patients live inside a sports center-turned-hospital in Wuhan.










						How coronavirus patients live inside a sports center-turned-hospital in Wuhan
					

Chinese coronavirus patients have been resting and others exercising at a sports center-turned-temporary hospital in the epicenter city of Wuhan.




					nypost.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

The three mistakes the Chinese government has
made in its mishandling of the coronavirus crisis.










						Coronavirus crisis: the three mistakes the Chinese government has made
					

Even though the Sars disaster demonstrated the need for greater openness, China has made the same mistakes in the current crisis while expecting a different outcome. Wuhan’s decision to suppress the bad news was particularly dire.




					www.scmp.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Covid-19: Two more patients have recovered, seven
still receiving treatment.










						Covid-19: Two more patients have recovered, seven still receiving treatment
					

PUTRAJAYA (Feb 19): The number of fully-recovered Covid-19 patients has increased to 15 after two more confirmed cases were given a clean bill of health and discharged from the Sungai Buloh Hospital today.Health Minister Datuk Seri Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad said the two cases were the 17th and 18th...




					www.theedgemarkets.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Health officials are using lessons from past
outbreaks to fight coronavirus.










						Health officials are using lessons from past outbreaks to fight coronavirus
					

When a deadly virus arrives in the U.S., health officials follow a road map.




					www.cbsnews.com
				





Richard


----------



## pedro47

This post is off topics for a moment. 

There could be a positive side of COVID-19. This virus could force some major and small American employers in China; to come back to the United States and employ American workers in their factories.  IMHO.


----------



## MULTIZ321

The Wide-Ranging Ways In Which The Coronavirus
Is Hurting Global Business.










						The Wide-Ranging Ways In Which The Coronavirus Is Hurting Global Business
					

Some factories are beginning to reopen, but labor shortages continue. In a recent poll of U.S. companies by Shanghai's American Chamber of Commerce, 78% said they lack staff to resume full production.




					www.npr.org
				



.


Richard 
.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Film Crew Stranded in China Releases Footage of a City Plagued by Coronavirus - Watch.










						Film Crew Stranded in China Releases Footage of a City Plagued by Coronavirus — Watch
					

The short film “Wuhan: The Long Night” has gone viral with millions of views on China’s social media platform Weibo.




					www.indiewire.com
				





Richard


----------



## pedro47

Strange questions. What are the major manufacturers and employers in this China province; Second part of questions what are the items imported to the United States of America.  What are the name of United States ports these import items are shipped to  ???


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus patient who left hospital following a full recovery and immediately went into self-isolation tests POSITIVE 10 days later.










						Coronavirus patient tests positive again 10 days into self-isolation
					

Chinese state media said the person was discharged from a hospital in Chengdu. Experts suspected that doctors had not given the patient accurate virus tests before declaring his recovery.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				



.


Richard


----------



## Passepartout

(*Speculation)* I wonder how long it will be before TUG re-routes ALL *Coronavirus* (Covid-19) and related travel cancellations, delays, possible quarantines, self-quarantines, etc. etc. etc. into it's own forum. 'Bout time, don'tcha think? 200,000 flight cancellations, whole continent cruise cancellations, people, including leading doctors dying of the disease is more than just inconvenience. Maybe after timeshare resorts become affected? It's a matter of time. Think about it.

Jim


----------



## MULTIZ321

WHO concerned about coronavirus cases with no clear link.










						WHO concerned about coronavirus cases with no clear epidemiological link
					

The World Health Organization (WHO) is concerned about the number of coronavirus...




					in.reuters.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Cargo convoy departs to China carrying medical supplies donated by Qatar Airways for Coronavirus
relief.










						Cargo convoy departs to China carrying medical supplies donated by Qatar Airways for Coronavirus relief
					

Five Qatar Airways Cargo freighters departed to China on February 21, 2020 carrying approximately 300 tons of medical supplies donated by the airline to support Cornavirus relief efforts. The five …




					worldairlinenews.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

A day-by-day breakdown of coronavirus symptoms shows how the disease, COVID-19, goes from
bad to worse.










						A day-by-day breakdown of coronavirus symptoms shows how the disease, COVID-19, goes from bad to worse
					

The first symptom is typically a fever. By day five, patients may have difficulty breathing. By day 10, some are admitted to the ICU.




					www.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus incubation could be as long as 27 days, Chinese provincial government says.










						Coronavirus incubation could be as long as 27 days, Chinese provincial government says
					

A 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus b...




					www.reuters.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## CalGalTraveler

Just learned that the US bound flight that was departing just prior to ours was delayed because it had a person who tested positive for Coronavirus (I am not sure how they figure this out).  We had to certify that we had not visited China within 14 days prior to boarding our flight.

Very few people in major airports or cities wearing masks. We packed N95 masks but did not use them. Washed hands and applied sanitizer frequently. Also wiped down surfaces at airport lounges and plane seats we touched. So far so good.


----------



## MULTIZ321

New COVID-19 drugs approved for fast and accurate diagnosis: China's top epidemiologist.







						New COVID-19 drugs approved for fast and accurate diagnosis: China's top epidemiologist - Global Times
					






					www.globaltimes.cn
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

China's early warning system didn't work on.
covid-19. Here's the story.




			https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/24/chinas-early-warning-system-didnt-work-covid-19-heres-story/
		



Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Study says coronavirus did not originate in Wuhan seafood market.










						Study says coronavirus did not originate in Wuhan seafood market
					

Genomic analysis of 93 samples of the novel coronavirus suggests that it did not originate in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, according to a group of Chinese scientists.




					www.inkstonenews.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

UNMC involved in first clinical trial for drug to fight
coronavirus.










						UNMC involved in first clinical trial for drug to fight coronavirus
					

A clinical trial for a drug to fight the coronavirus (COVID-19) has begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha.




					www.klkntv.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## caribbeanqueen

Thank you for posting all this information Richard!


----------



## pedro47

MULTIZ321 said:


> UNMC involved in first clinical trial for drug to fight
> coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UNMC involved in first clinical trial for drug to fight coronavirus
> 
> 
> A clinical trial for a drug to fight the coronavirus (COVID-19) has begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.klkntv.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard


Let's pray that this new clinical drug worked for world population.


----------



## MULTIZ321

A new coronavirus test in Singapore is providing
clues about how the outbreak spreads.










						A new coronavirus test in Singapore is providing clues about how outbreak spreads
					

The test is establishing links between cases in the city-state.




					fortune.com
				





Richard


----------



## Maple_Leaf

Our 5th case in Ontario just got confirmed, a woman with a travel history to Iran.









						New COVID-19 case confirmed in Toronto, 5th case in Ontario  | Globalnews.ca
					

A woman who recently travelled to Iran has been confirmed as the newest presumptive case of COVID-19 in Toronto, health officials confirmed.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## b2bailey

caribbeanqueen said:


> Thank you for posting all this information Richard!


Agree. Had been thinking the same.


----------



## b2bailey

pedro47 said:


> Let's pray that this new clinical drug worked for world population.


Did anyone else notice the mention of 'medicine to treat' in Iran news?


----------



## MULTIZ321

Hipsters beware: CDC warns that facial hair can be hazardous during coronavirus outbreak.










						Hipsters beware: CDC warns that facial hair can be hazardous during coronavirus outbreak
					

You might want to reconsider those mutton chops.




					www.fastcompany.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## pedro47

Brazil just reported a COVID-19 case now every continent have a case of this virus.


----------



## mdurette

pedro47 said:


> Could not open link. Lysol or Clorox, what is the final answer?



This Lysol link also sent my antivirus spinning and froze desktop.   Richard, you may want to remove.


----------



## MULTIZ321

mdurette said:


> This Lysol link also sent my antivirus spinning and froze desktop.   Richard, you may want to remove.


I ASKED THE MODERATORS TO REMOVE THE POST.  THANKS FOR THE HEADS UP


----------



## Karen G

MULTIZ321 said:


> I ASKED THE MODERATORS TO REMOVE THE POST.  THANKS FOR THE HEADS UP


It has been deleted.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Karen G said:


> It has been deleted.


Thanks Karen.

For those interested, I posted a new link in the new Home Preparedness Thread in the Lounge. It worked ok for me, so I think it should work ok for other Tuuggers.

Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus: Japanese tour guide who met Wuhan travellers again tests positive 










						Japan tour guide who met Wuhan travellers tests positive for virus again
					

The Osaka woman was declared virus-free on February 6, but again tested positive on February 19 after feeling throat and chest pain




					www.scmp.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Maple_Leaf

Maple_Leaf said:


> Our 5th case in Ontario just got confirmed, a woman with a travel history to Iran.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New COVID-19 case confirmed in Toronto, 5th case in Ontario  | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> A woman who recently travelled to Iran has been confirmed as the newest presumptive case of COVID-19 in Toronto, health officials confirmed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


Our 6th case in Ontario is this lady's husband.  I feel badly for him but the good news is the virus is still traceable in Canada to visitors to China or Iran.


----------



## Maple_Leaf

Japan to close schools nationwide in March.








						Japan to close schools nationwide to control spread of coronavirus
					

Japan now has more than 890 cases of the coronavirus, including 705 from a quarantined cruise ship.




					nypost.com


----------



## clifffaith

NBC Nightly News just reported that a Hong Kong patient's dog tested positive. Now that has me freaked out!


----------



## MULTIZ321

Explainer: Coronavirus Reappears in Discharged 
Patients, Raising Questions in Containment Fight 




			https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-02-28/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight
		

.


Richard


----------



## moonstone

Now Mexico has it's first confirmed cases.  https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/mexico-confirms-cases-coronavirus-69280468
So far no cases here in Belize (next door to Mexico) which I am surprised given the number of Chinese people here and all their families travelling back and forth. 

~Diane


----------



## MULTIZ321

Here's how coronavirus could become a pandemic-and why it matters.










						Coronavirus is officially a pandemic. Here's why that matters.
					

The World Health Organization has finally labeled COVID-19 as a pandemic, but does it change anything or is it just semantics?




					www.nationalgeographic.com
				





Richard


----------



## Maple_Leaf

Ontario has another case that is ominous. The patient travelled to Egypt. Egypt currently doesn't report a single coronavirus case. The Big Kahuna there declares Egypt is free of coronavirus.


			Ontario confirms eighth coronavirus case; man had travelled to Egypt
		









						Cairo contacts Paris, Ontario on coronavirus cases coming from Egypt
					

The Ministry of Health said that Egypt has not recorded currently any cases with the disease or even carrying the virus.




					www.egypttoday.com
				











						PM inspects quarantine at Hurghada Airport, confirms Egypt is free of coronavirus
					

Prime Minister Mustafa Madouli inspected the quarantine at Hurghada Airport on Saturday during his tour at the International Hurghada Airport.




					www.egypttoday.com
				



But whoops...while we weren't looking it appears Egypt got a Valentine's Day present.








						Egypt confirms coronavirus case, the first in Africa
					

The country’s health ministry says the affected person is a ‘foreigner’ who is hospitalised and in isolation.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## pedro47

I am not surprised by the confirmed coronavirus outbreak in Egypt, unless things have change this one country could surpass China in confirm coronavirus cases in the future. 
I pray that this virus never comes in contact with the general population in Egypt.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus: more than half of patients had no fever during hospital admission, study reveals.










						More than half of Covid-19 patients had no fever during hospital admission, study reveals
					

Chinese University respiratory medicine expert David Hui says social distancing should be continued to contain the coronavirus epidemic.




					www.scmp.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

No children under 10 appear to have died from the coronavirus, even though kids have been infected.










						No children under 10 appear to have died from the coronavirus, even though kids have been infected
					

Children under 10 represent about 1% of novel coronavirus cases, and it appears and no one in that age group has died from the condition.




					www.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## geist1223

MULTIZ321 said:


> No children under 10 appear to have died from the coronavirus, even though kids have been infected.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No children under 10 appear to have died from the coronavirus, even though kids have been infected
> 
> 
> Children under 10 represent about 1% of novel coronavirus cases, and it appears and no one in that age group has died from the condition.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard



Behind a pay/join wall.


----------



## Maple_Leaf

The Daily Mail reports an astonishing level of incompetence at that nursing home in Kirkland, Washington.  It sounds just awful.








						Worried families blast care home where one man died from coronavirus
					

Bonnie Holstad (left) said her calls to Life Care Center (right) in KIrkland, Washington state, have gone unanswered as she is desperate for news that her husband Ken is okay.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				



And somehow the fire brigade has allowed itself to be exposed to the virus and is currently in quarantine.  What a mess.








						Two dozen first responders quarantined for possible coronavirus
					

Two dozen emergency workers are off the job as they are being monitored for possible exposure to the coronavirus.




					www.kiro7.com


----------



## MULTIZ321

geist1223 said:


> Behind a pay/join wall.


I'm surprised.  Article was not behind a paywall for me.

Richard


----------



## VacationForever

I think the new protocol should be that all first responders and all medical personnel need to be masked up.  I haven't see an advisory from CDC about this.


----------



## WVBaker

Five Reasons You Don't Need to Panic About the COVID-19 Coronavirus

1. The number of cases in China is already falling significantly.
2. The vast majority of cases are mild, and the death rate is likely lower than reported.
3. Only one out of every 1,000 people in Hubei Province has contracted the coronavirus.
4. There have been no reported deaths in young children.
5. The world already survived another pandemic just ten years ago.









						Five Reasons You Don't Need to Panic About the COVID-19 Coronavirus | RealClearScience
					

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (causing the disease COVID-19) that emerged in Wuhan, China back in December 2019 is now spreading globally and has now been declared a pandemic by the World Health...




					www.realclearscience.com
				





We need to understand that panic does have dire consequences. Dire consequences caused by all the hysteria in exaggerated reports by the mainstream media, hoping for 
nothing more than mass viewers and higher ratings.


----------



## mdurette

WVBaker said:


> Five Reasons You Don't Need to Panic About the COVID-19 Coronavirus



Personally...I'm not at a stage as panic.  I'm at a stage of it's on my mind and whatever I can do deal with the possibility should be considered.

Simple things like washing hands should be 20 seconds.   I have recently determined I'm about a 7 second kinda gal.    So, I will pay attention and improve......


----------



## MULTIZ321

Who is getting sick, and how sick? A breakdown of
coronavirus risk by demographic factors.










						Who is getting sick, and how sick? A breakdown of coronavirus risk by demographic factors
					

The new coronavirus is not an equal-opportunity killer. Here's what research has shown about who might be most at risk.




					www.statnews.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

COVID-19: Canadian scientists at forefront of global response to coronavirus.










						COVID-19: Canadian scientists at forefront of global response to coronavirus - National | Globalnews.ca
					

The potential for a worldwide pandemic has kept scientists in Canada at the ready and placed them at the forefront of the global response to the outbreak of the new coronavirus, several prominent researchers say.




					globalnews.ca
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

First coronavirus death reported in California; US toll hits 11.










						Coronavirus: Virus-stricken cruise ship returns to California, former passenger dies
					

With several sick passengers and crew members, the vessel will be delayed along the coast while U.S. Centers for Disease Control health officials fly tests to the ship and screen passengers for the…




					www.mercurynews.com
				





Richard


----------



## CPNY

NY hospital employees banned from traveling or having meetings more than 25 people. It’s most likely worse than we think


----------



## Panina

CPNY said:


> NY hospital employees banned from traveling or having meetings more than 25 people. It’s most likely worse than we think


At this point I assume there are thousands of us, who have it  or had it and don’t know. For every case diagnosed there are many more that get no symptoms or minor symptoms and are not diagnosed.


----------



## CPNY

Panina said:


> At this point I assume there are thousands of us, who have it  or had it and don’t know. For every case diagnosed there are many more that get no symptoms or minor symptoms and are not diagnosed.


I completely agree with you!! Passed few days had a cough and I started taking vitamin C and it’s gone now


----------



## VacationForever

The issue is that many of us are older and have various underlying health issues and as such, have higher risk of dying from coronavirus, with the underlying condition as a primary cause of death.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Everything You Need to Know About Coronavirus Vaccines.










						Everything You Need to Know About Coronavirus Vaccines
					

As Covid-19 spreads, the pressure is on for drugmakers to get a vaccine to market. But it's not that easy.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

How Many People Have Died From Coronavirus? The Mortality Rate is Complicated.










						If You’re Wondering How Deadly Coronavirus Is, Here’s What To Know
					

Heading into March, at least 3,200 people have died from coronavirus globally. And while keeping track of this news might feel like the type of thing you don't want to think about at all, let alone study or track, know that these numbers only tell…




					www.bustle.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## geist1223

Patti was reading on Rueters today that it appears there has been at least 1 mutation of the Coronavirus.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Scientists say they've identified 2 strains of COVID- 19.










						Scientists say they've identified 2 strains of COVID-19
					

Scientists from China say they have identified two strains of novel coronavirus that are causing the COVID-19 outbreak.




					abcnews.go.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

These charts show who is most vulnerable to COVID-19.










						These charts show who is most vulnerable to COVID-19
					

There are still many unknowns, but our best source of information right now is China, as the place with the most cases and therefore the most data. We can look to them for some glimpse of what might be in store for the rest of the world.




					www.popsci.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Who's Most At Risk for Coronavirus? Why Certain
People Are Vulnerable to Complications.










						Here’s Why Certain People Face More Serious COVID-19 Illness Than Others
					

Anyone can contract COVID-19, but high-risk groups are vulnerable to complications.




					www.prevention.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Here's What We Know So Far About Whether Pets Can Get COVID-19.










						Here's What We Know So Far About Whether Pets Can Get COVID-19
					

The coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2 is pulling off new tricks seemingly every day. Experts in Hong Kong say there’s clear evidence the virus can cross over from humans to dogs and possibly other pets. But they don’t suspect the virus causes serious disease in dogs, nor that dogs are spreading...




					gizmodo.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Why are patients who recover from coronavirus testing positive again.










						Why are patients who recover from coronavirus testing positive again?
					

Scientists are trying to understand mysterious 'double positives.'




					fortune.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

The results are in, COVID-19 spreads through poop.










						The results are in, COVID-19 spreads through poop
					

Nasty.




					sea.mashable.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Kids Can Get Covid-19. They Just Don't Get That Sick.










						Kids Can Get Covid-19. They Just Don't Get That Sick
					

New data suggests that children aren’t immune to the new coronavirus. That could have huge implications for efforts to contain local outbreaks.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

What went wrong with the coronavirus tests in the
U.S.




			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/what-went-wrong-with-the-coronavirus-tests/2020/03/07/915f5dea-5d82-11ea-b29b-9db42f7803a7_story.html
		

.


Richard


----------



## GetawaysRus

Vox: Why new diseases keep appearing in China.





I haven't been following this thread closely, so I'm hoping this is not a repeat post.  That's an interesting video, if you have a few minutes to watch it.

I have been following the news, and what I don't understand is: where are the calls from world health officials and world governments to convince countries to shut down these wet markets?  This is costing the world dearly in lives, angst, scarce health care resources, and economic activity.  This happened before with SARS, it is happening now with Covid-19, and it will happen again in the future unless there are changes.  Diseases can move around the world quickly, much more quickly than our ability to respond.  Prevention seems of key importance.


----------



## MULTIZ321

People 'shed' high levels of coronavirus, study finds, but most are likely not infectious after recovery begins.










						People 'shed' high levels of coronavirus, study finds, but most are likely not infectious after recovery begins
					

People "shed" high levels of coronavirus early on after being infected, a new study finds, but most are likely not infectious after their recovery begins.




					www.statnews.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Latest news from Monday's World Health Organization briefing.










						Latest COVID-19 news from Monday's WHO briefing
					

What to know from today's COVID19 press briefing.




					www.weforum.org
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid's
coronavirus site used by millions.










						Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid’s coronavirus site used by millions
					

A self-taught computer maven from Seattle, Avi Schiffmann uses web scraping technology to accurately report on developing pandemic, while fighting misinformation and panic




					www.timesofisrael.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## jabberwocky

This might be behind a paywall- but provides a reality check. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...-the-coronavirus-does-not-register-as-a-dire/


----------



## b2bailey

MULTIZ321 said:


> Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid's
> coronavirus site used by millions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid’s coronavirus site used by millions
> 
> 
> A self-taught computer maven from Seattle, Avi Schiffmann uses web scraping technology to accurately report on developing pandemic, while fighting misinformation and panic
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.timesofisrael.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard


A.M.A.Z.I.N.G


----------



## Panina

MULTIZ321 said:


> Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid's
> coronavirus site used by millions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid’s coronavirus site used by millions
> 
> 
> A self-taught computer maven from Seattle, Avi Schiffmann uses web scraping technology to accurately report on developing pandemic, while fighting misinformation and panic
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.timesofisrael.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard


Best numbers site I have seen yet


----------



## pedro47

Are there any new data on what is happening in China?


----------



## Ken555

MULTIZ321 said:


> Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid's
> coronavirus site used by millions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid’s coronavirus site used by millions
> 
> 
> A self-taught computer maven from Seattle, Avi Schiffmann uses web scraping technology to accurately report on developing pandemic, while fighting misinformation and panic
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.timesofisrael.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard



Great site. I also use this one: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


----------



## MULTIZ321

Scientists figure out how new coronavirus breaks into human cells.










						Scientists figure out how new coronavirus breaks into human cells
					

It could aid in drug development.




					www.livescience.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

'We're behind the curve ': U.S. hospitals confront the challenges of large-scale coronavirus testing.











						‘We're behind the curve’: U.S. hospitals confront the challenges of large-scale coronavirus testing
					

A microbiologist overseeing testing at a major Michigan hospital system laments preventable delays




					www.sciencemag.org
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Article: The Fastest Supercomputer on Earth Is Being Deployed Against Coronavirus - ExtremeTech.










						The Fastest Supercomputer on Earth Is Being Deployed Against Coronavirus - ExtremeTech
					

The world's most powerful supercomputer is being dedicated to hunting down a treatment for coronavirus as Covid-19 cases continue to rise.




					www.extremetech.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Here's how long the coronavirus can live in the air and on packages.










						Here’s how long the coronavirus can live in the air and on packages
					

The virus prefers steel and plastic, materials commonly found in hospitals and homes.




					www.technologyreview.com
				





Richard


----------



## CanuckTravlr

World Health Organization today officially declares the Covid-19 coronavirus a pandemic.









						COVID-19 is a pandemic: World Health Organization
					

The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic and urged aggressive action from all countries to fight it, as U.S. stocks plunged into bear market territory and several American cities joined global counterparts in banning large gatherings.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## CPNY

CanuckTravlr said:


> World Health Organization today officially declares the Covid-19 coronavirus a pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 is a pandemic: World Health Organization
> 
> 
> The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic and urged aggressive action from all countries to fight it, as U.S. stocks plunged into bear market territory and several American cities joined global counterparts in banning large gatherings.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


So many already have this. They aren’t testing here. They are just telling you to stay home if you have symptoms because ya know it could be allergies, a cold or The flu. I think we have gotten to this point where we are so numb to the outside world and nothing can happen here so we have all become complacent. So the sentiment is don’t go to the dr or hospital unless you’re really bad and can’t breathe. They either don’t have enough tests or don’t want the numbers to go up. Either way, 80% of the cases are mild and resolve on their own. If they actually tested everyone there would be MILLIONS with positive results. It’s the same with the flu. If you’re elderly you should be worried. People are saying that kids aren’t getting this. Maybe they are but they are asymptomatic so they won’t be tested.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

Ivy league cancelling all spring sports. Will other leagues follow if they include hard hit areas? e.g. Pac-12 Washington









						Ivy League decides to cancel all spring sports
					

The Ivy League has decided to cancel all spring sports in the face of coronavirus.




					www.espn.com


----------



## CanuckTravlr

And now the NBA has stepped up to the plate (sorry for the baseball analogy) and suspended the rest of the season after tonight and until further notice.  That is an example of leadership that many would be wise to follow.  This is potentially the worst health crisis in a century, since the 1918 flu pandemic.  I am impressed.

And on a different front, Tom Hanks and his wife have just announced that they are in self quarantine in Australia after testing positive for Covid-19.  And so it begins. The seriousness of this pandemic is starting to hit close to home.  Eventually we will all likely be affected in some way.  Everyone please exercise caution and good hygiene and try to stay safe.  We will not be travelling other than locally now for at least 9 months.  And we may have to cancel our December and January trips to Florida and the Caribbean if things continue to worsen.


----------



## MULTIZ321

How does the coronavirus test work? 5 questions
answered.










						How does the coronavirus test work? 5 questions answered
					

A molecular biologist explains who should get tested, how the tests work and what the US government is doing to make tests available during a rapidly changing crisis.




					theconversation.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## CPNY

This is insane. Thanks China


----------



## MULTIZ321

Why the U.S. is so far behind on coronavirus testing.










						Why the U.S. is so far behind on coronavirus testing
					

We're still way behind other countries.




					www.axios.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## alwysonvac

Sorry if this was posted before.


----------



## MULTIZ321

FDA approves automated coronavirus test.










						FDA approves automated coronavirus test
					

First commercially available test can be used to screen thousands of patients per day, its developer says.




					www.cbsnews.com
				






Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Canadian scientists make COVID-19 research
breakthrough, isolating virus.










						Canadian scientists make COVID-19 research breakthrough, isolating virus
					

A group of Canadian scientists has successfully isolated and grown copies of the novel coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, paving the way for a potential vaccine.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				



.


Richard


----------



## Rolltydr

MULTIZ321 said:


> Canadian scientists make COVID-19 research
> breakthrough, isolating virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian scientists make COVID-19 research breakthrough, isolating virus
> 
> 
> A group of Canadian scientists has successfully isolated and grown copies of the novel coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, paving the way for a potential vaccine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard



Will we be saved by Canadians? Let’s hope so!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

More Gallows Humor - 
[deleted - incredibly bad taste. I don't know what I was thinking.]


----------



## MULTIZ321

Chinese businessman to donate 500,000 test kits and I million masks to the U.S.










						Chinese businessman to donate 500,000 test kits and 1 million masks to the U.S.
					

Jack Ma’s businesses have already sourced and donated supplies to other countries being hit by the virus, including Japan, Korea, Italy, Iran and Spain.




					www.politico.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## CanuckTravlr

Rolltydr said:


> Will we be saved by Canadians? Let’s hope so!
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Happy to help out any way we can.  Wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last time.  Let's keep our fingers crossed!!


----------



## VacationForever

MULTIZ321 said:


> Chinese businessman to donate 500,000 test kits and I million masks to the U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chinese businessman to donate 500,000 test kits and 1 million masks to the U.S.
> 
> 
> Jack Ma’s businesses have already sourced and donated supplies to other countries being hit by the virus, including Japan, Korea, Italy, Iran and Spain.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard


We can use these.  I hope the Chinese government does not bump him off, coming off threat by the Chinese government to withhold drugs from us.


----------



## b2bailey

MULTIZ321 said:


> Chinese businessman to donate 500,000 test kits and I million masks to the U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chinese businessman to donate 500,000 test kits and 1 million masks to the U.S.
> 
> 
> Jack Ma’s businesses have already sourced and donated supplies to other countries being hit by the virus, including Japan, Korea, Italy, Iran and Spain.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard


let me guess...
Trump will tell the shipping company to "return to sender"


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus Symptoms: Defining Mild, Moderate
And Severe.










						Coronavirus Symptoms: Defining Mild, Moderate And Severe
					

These designations are often used to describe a patient's COVID-19 symptoms. At this stage of the outbreak, there aren't standard definitions but there are preliminary guidelines.




					www.npr.org
				



.

Richard


----------



## easyrider

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> More Gallows Humor - this from my college days



Always look on the bright side of life ..........................


----------



## alwysonvac

Italy’s coronavirus crisis could be America’s
					

"Get ready!" doctors in Italy warn.




					www.vox.com
				












						Italy’s Health Care System Groans Under Coronavirus — a Warning to the World (Published 2020)
					

In less than three weeks, the virus has overloaded hospitals in northern Italy, offering a glimpse of what countries face if they cannot slow the contagion.




					www.nytimes.com
				












						Medical workers at the frontlines of the coronavirus outbreak in Italy are working days on end as the disease continues to grip the country
					

This week, the entire country of Italy went under an unprecedented lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19.




					www.businessinsider.com
				












						Special Report: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics
					

In Italy, millions are locked down and more than 1,000 people have died from the coronavirus. In South Korea, hit by the disease at about the same time, only a few thousand are quarantined and 67 people have died. As the virus courses through the world, the story of two...




					www.reuters.com


----------



## alwysonvac

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths (Published 2020)
					

Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Talent312

MULTIZ321 said:


> Chinese businessman to donate 500,000 test kits and I million masks to the U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chinese businessman to donate 500,000 test kits and 1 million masks to the U.S.
> 
> 
> Jack Ma’s businesses have already sourced and donated supplies to other countries being hit by the virus, including Japan, Korea, Italy, Iran and Spain.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .



Won't that hurt U.S. manufacturing? Can we impose tariffs on that?
.


----------



## Miss Marty

*
ABC News - 45 minute video

Coronavirus: How the deadly epidemic 
sparked a global emergency | Four Corners


----------



## MULTIZ321

How Roche's new coronavirus test sped its way to FDA authorization 









						How Roche's new coronavirus test sped its way to FDA authorization
					

Roche has the first commercially available diagnostic test to treat coronavirus and COVID-19. Here's how that happened.




					fortune.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

This Coronavirus is Unlike Anything in Our Lifetime, and We Have to Stop Comparing it to the Flu.










						This Coronavirus Is Unlike Anything in Our Lifetime, and We Have to Stop Comparing It to the Flu — ProPublica
					

Longtime health reporter Charles Ornstein says that comparing the novel coronavirus to the flu is dangerously inaccurate. Not one public health expert he trusts has called that comparison valid. Here’s why.




					www.propublica.org
				



.


Richard


----------



## GetawaysRus

An interesting article for those who aren't afraid of a little chemistry.  This explains why soap works so well against the virus.









						How soap absolutely annihilates the coronavirus
					

You’re not just washing viruses down the drain. Soap destroys the coronavirus, a chemistry professor explains.




					www.vox.com


----------



## pedro47

Just watch Fort Lauderdale webcam of the beach crowd on a portions of  Fort Lauderdale Beach ocean front.    Looks liked the tourists and locals have never heard of the Coronavirus because the beach is crowded.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Unlikely to die of COVID-19 - but likely to pass it on: young people's vital role in fighting coronavirus.










						Why the young need to take more care over COVID-19 - for the sake of the elderly
					

Socially active young adults are likely to have only mild symptoms and could be major carriers of the virus to older and more vulnerable people.




					www.weforum.org
				





Richard


----------



## Glynda

pedro47 said:


> Just watch Fort Lauderdale webcam of the beach crowd on a portions of  Fort Lauderdale Beach ocean front.    Looks liked the tourists and locals have never heard of the Coronavirus because the beach is crowded.



Charleston is crawling with them too. Spring Breaker's.


----------



## MULTIZ321

The race to find a coronavirus treatment: One
strategy might be just weeks away, scientists say.










						The race to find a coronavirus treatment: One strategy might be just weeks away, scientists say
					

Researchers are already suggesting strategies that may help treat thousands of coronavirus patients. One could be just weeks away.



					www.usatoday.com
				





Richard


----------



## Conan

"We are pretty sure, based on the data from Wuhan, China, that about eighty per cent of deaths occur in those aged sixty or over, whereas less than one in a thousand occurred in children under twenty."








						How Epidemiologists Understand the Novel Coronavirus
					

The epidemiologist Justin Lessler discusses how our understanding of the pandemic has improved, what we can learn from different governments’ responses, and why older adults seem to be more at risk of serious illness.




					www.newyorker.com


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

GetawaysRus said:


> An interesting article for those who aren't afraid of a little chemistry.  This explains why soap works so well against the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How soap absolutely annihilates the coronavirus
> 
> 
> You’re not just washing viruses down the drain. Soap destroys the coronavirus, a chemistry professor explains.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vox.com


A good article and there is a simple enhancement (which I have posted about other times on TUG concerning grease and oil removal). 

Apply some thick, low water content liquid soap (such as liquid dishwash detergent) to your hands.  Do not wet your hands before applying the soap.  Apply the liquid soap as is and scrub with it.  If it fells sticky so much the better.  Only add some water if the soap or detergent is so stiff that you can't get it to spread, and then only apply water in tiny amounts to to decrease the viscosity.  And work that in very well.  

Then add a small amount of water to begin loosen the detergent.   You should start to see some sudsing beginning to occur at this stage.  Then added water incrementally until you can feel your hands starting to clean. Finally proceed to a full rinse. 

**********

If you want a chemistry explanation, what  you are doing is first creating an oi-based fluid on your hands, in which particles that are lipohiles (compatible with grease and oil) are dissolved into a oily fluid base with the detergent as the carrying fluid, and any water present is tied up by the detergent.  After those materials are dissolved, as you add water incrementally, the solution base switches from an oil-base to a water base, where the oil and grease particles are now tied up by the detergent.  Continued water rinsing then removes everything.  

IMHO - it is the best way to get oil and grease off  your hands.  I do it all the time when my hands get greasy.  And as the article describes, it's also quite effective against microbes.

*****

If you haven't done this, give it a try. Start with an ordinary liquid dish washing detergent - for sinks not dishwasher.  Put few drops on your hands, and begin working it in.  Add a few *drops* of water if you need to thin it.  *Drops, and only a few,* just to be able to get it to spread.  Work that thoroughly, then add small amountsof water progressively, continuing to scrub. You will reach a state where the stuff on  your hands will start accepting water almost instantly - that's the point where the solution on  your hands converts from being based on water instead being oil-based. 

Continue rinsing, and then note how palpably cleaner your hands feel after going through this routine.


----------



## MULTIZ321

High-Risk People Are Urging Social Distancing To Stop The Coronavirus, And It's Heartbreaking.










						17 High-Risk People You Should Think About The Next Time You Consider Not Social Distancing
					

"I don’t want to die."




					www.buzzfeed.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Ken555

Fauci: ‘If it looks like you’re overreacting, you’re probably doing the right thing’
					

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci said Sunday that it was better to err on the side of caution in coronavirus mitigation, even if the steps take…




					thehill.com
				






> National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci said Sunday that it was better to err on the side of caution in coronavirus mitigation, even if the steps taken appear to be an overreaction.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CPNY

Ken555 said:


> Fauci: ‘If it looks like you’re overreacting, you’re probably doing the right thing’
> 
> 
> National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci said Sunday that it was better to err on the side of caution in coronavirus mitigation, even if the steps take…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thehill.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Absolutely! I’ve been over reacting to this for the last two weeks and I’m glad I did. I had my picking of Costco essentials and didn’t have to fight with the boards of people. I’ll be ahead of the wave. I could use a replenishment in two weeks but I will go this week when the crowds are hopefully less since everyone just stocked up. People need to stay home and take this seriously.


----------



## Ken555

CPNY said:


> Absolutely! I’ve been over reacting to this for the last two weeks and I’m glad I did. I had my picking of Costco essentials and didn’t have to fight with the boards of people. I’ll be ahead of the wave. I could use a replenishment in two weeks but I will go this week when the crowds are hopefully less since everyone just stocked up. People need to stay home and take this seriously.



I suggest https://sameday.costco.com instead of going yourself especially if you or those with you are in a risk category. I stopped going to the market a week ago, but am ordering for delivery when needed. 

Another point... my doctor confirmed that a pneumonia shot may help and he immediately issued a prescription for me. This is typically for those 60+ (I’m much younger and he didn’t hesitate). I may get this today, since every day increases the spread so today will be safer than tomorrow. If this applies to you as well, you may want to contact your doctor to inquire of it’s appropriate for you.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CPNY

Ken555 said:


> I suggest https://sameday.costco.com instead of going yourself especially if you or those with you are in a risk category. I stopped going to the market a week ago, but am ordering for delivery when needed.
> 
> Another point... my doctor confirmed that a pneumonia shot may help and he immediately issued a prescription for me. This is typically for those 60+ (I’m much younger and he didn’t hesitate). I may get this today, since every day increases the spread so today will be safer than tomorrow. If this applies to you as well, you may want to contact your doctor to inquire of it’s appropriate for you.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Good idea. I’m also much younger than 60+ but everyone is at risk so I may think about getting that shot. Thanks for the link. I wonder if they will Deliver in nyc. I’ve been home for a week and a half since I had symptoms and difficulty breathing which got better yesterday. Still coughing so I still don’t want to leave the dwelling. My symptoms were all there but very mild and in line with how they have been described for other mild symptom confirmed cases. At the time there were no tests readily available so I was directed to stay home and if symptoms worsened to then come in. Thankfully I got Better from whatver it was. I’d almost hope it was covid19 just so hopefully I have built up some immunity to the virus. However, even with this there are reports of re infections so it’s best if I just stay home.


----------



## Ken555

CPNY said:


> Good idea. I’m also much younger than 60+ but everyone is at risk so I may think about getting that shot. Thanks for the link. I wonder if they will Deliver in nyc. I’ve been home for a week and a half since I had symptoms and difficulty breathing which got better yesterday. Still coughing so I still don’t want to leave the dwelling. My symptoms were all there but very mild and in line with how they have been described for other mild symptom confirmed cases. At the time there were no tests readily available so I was directed to stay home and if symptoms worsened to then come in. Thankfully I got Better from whatver it was. I’d almost hope it was covid19 just so hopefully I have built up some immunity to the virus. However, even with this there are reports of re infections so it’s best if I just stay home.



I feel for all my friends in New York, many of whom are older and fall into risk categories and yet have still been going out to shop. They are going to the local market early in the morning thinking that will help, and it may, but I have been encouraging everyone to order delivery. Of course, there’s a moral issue with asking and paying others to risk themselves on our behalf, but I can only hope these individuals are careful and know the risks. 

As for New York... it’s everywhere. https://nypost.com/2020/03/15/new-y...theyve-been-exposed-to-coronavirus-officials/

I’m now planning on washing *everything* I receive carefully. Last week I started wiping boxes before opening them (I was using wipes, but may switch to chlorox with bleach). I’m of the opinion a little more inconvenience is not a problem, I’m just trying to delay being infected as long as possible in the hope that when I do have it there is a treatment available or, at best, a vaccine.

I’m in Los Angeles, and very glad our Mayor imposed restrictions last night on restaurants, gyms, movie theaters, etc. It’s all about slowing the curve.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CPNY

Ken555 said:


> I suggest https://sameday.costco.com instead of going yourself especially if you or those with you are in a risk category. I stopped going to the market a week ago, but am ordering for delivery when needed.
> 
> Another point... my doctor confirmed that a pneumonia shot may help and he immediately issued a prescription for me. This is typically for those 60+ (I’m much younger and he didn’t hesitate). I may get this today, since every day increases the spread so today will be safer than tomorrow. If this applies to you as well, you may want to contact your doctor to inquire of it’s appropriate for you.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


THANK YOU! Just placed an order for delivery on Saturday 3-5 with everything I would have purchased anyway. Hopefully it’s all in stock for the order but this saves me from going into that mess in Harlem.

I agree on slowing the curve... it’s why I’ve been home and telling everyone I know to stay home. I have been too vocal on social media for others to STAY TF HOME!! I feel for the elderly with underlying conditions. But we’ve seen young and healthy also affected. Glad NYC finally enacted the same measures. No more gatherings, no more bars, clubs etc. I just hope this is over soon. Life is going to disrupted but hopefully we get ahead of this. This virus will change our social interactions. Gyms are closed as well, looks like I may have to buy some weights on amazon today. I haven’t been to the gym in two weeks any and probably where I got symptoms from.


----------



## Ken555

CPNY said:


> THANK YOU! Just placed an order for delivery on Saturday 3-5 with everything I would have purchased anyway. Hopefully it’s all in stock for the order but this saves me from going into that mess in Harlem.



Expect they won’t have it all. They didn’t for me. However, the shopper texted me constantly and offered alternatives, and even sent me a pic showing empty shelves and an option. I even added additional items I thought of while she was in store.

On other news, I just received a text from the City of LA with a link to this: https://www.lamayor.org/mayor-garce...-slow-spread-novel-coronavirus-protect-public


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CPNY

Ken555 said:


> Expect they won’t have it all. They didn’t for me. However, the shopper texted me constantly and offered alternatives, and even sent me a pic showing empty shelves and an option. I even added additional items I thought of while she was in store.
> 
> On other news, I just received a text from the City of LA with a link to this: https://www.lamayor.org/mayor-garce...-slow-spread-novel-coronavirus-protect-public
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Just updated my last post. Our gov is on the news now announcing more measures. People need to stay home! I’m using this time to eat lots of chicken breast and edamame spaghetti. Maybe do some home cardio now that I’m feeling better and take the opportunity to eat right.


----------



## Ken555

CPNY said:


> THANK YOU! Just placed an order for delivery on Saturday 3-5 with everything I would have purchased anyway. Hopefully it’s all in stock for the order but this saves me from going into that mess in Harlem.
> 
> I agree on slowing the curve... it’s why I’ve been home and telling everyone I know to stay home. I have been too vocal on social media for others to STAY TF HOME!! I feel for the elderly with underlying conditions. But we’ve seen young and healthy also affected. Glad NYC finally enacted the same measures. No more gatherings, no more bars, clubs etc. I just hope this is over soon. Life is going to disrupted but hopefully we get ahead of this. This virus will change our social interactions. Gyms are closed as well, looks like I may have to buy some weights on amazon today. I haven’t been to the gym in two weeks any and probably where I got symptoms from.



Yes... https://staythefuckhome.com

I ordered an exercise bike last night for delivery tomorrow. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CPNY

Ken555 said:


> Yes... https://staythefuckhome.com
> 
> I ordered an exercise bike last night for delivery tomorrow.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Yup! That’s my go to website I’ve been passing around all over social media.


----------



## MULTIZ321

In France more than half of coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 60, suggesting it's not just the elderly at risk.










						In France, more than half of coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 60, suggesting it's not just the elderly at risk
					

The number of seriously ill coronavirus patients under 60 in France is out of kilter with the theory that younger people are less at risk.




					www.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Rolltydr

Ken555 said:


> Yes... https://staythefuckhome.com
> 
> I ordered an exercise bike last night for delivery tomorrow.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I’m walking outside in my neighborhood instead of going to the gym. I got back about 30 minutes ago after an hour walk. It is officially spring here with pollen everywhere. Now, my allergies are going wild! Where are the masks? I need one to even go outside!


----------



## Ken555

Rolltydr said:


> I’m walking outside in my neighborhood instead of going to the gym. I got back about 30 minutes ago after an hour walk. It is officially spring here with pollen everywhere. Now, my allergies are going wild! Where are the masks? I need one to even go outside!



Yes, walking outside is preferable for those who can. My allergies have also been impacted and the changing weather here hasn’t helped.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CPNY

Ken555 said:


> Yes, walking outside is preferable for those who can. My allergies have also been impacted and the changing weather here hasn’t helped.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I was thinking about that today. Going to have more people rubbing their eyes due to allergies.


----------



## pedro47

Sometimes I liked to play the Devil Advocate.  Is this a way to reduce the world wide growing senior citizen population?????????

The major risk population age group are 60 and older.


----------



## VacationForever

Ken555 said:


> I feel for all my friends in New York, many of whom are older and fall into risk categories and yet have still been going out to shop. They are going to the local market early in the morning thinking that will help, and it may, but I have been encouraging everyone to order delivery. Of course, there’s a moral issue with asking and paying others to risk themselves on our behalf, but I can only hope these individuals are careful and know the risks.
> 
> As for New York... it’s everywhere. https://nypost.com/2020/03/15/new-y...theyve-been-exposed-to-coronavirus-officials/
> 
> I’m now planning on washing *everything* I receive carefully. Last week I started wiping boxes before opening them (I was using wipes, but may switch to chlorox with bleach). I’m of the opinion a little more inconvenience is not a problem, I’m just trying to delay being infected as long as possible in the hope that when I do have it there is a treatment available or, at best, a vaccine.
> 
> I’m in Los Angeles, and very glad our Mayor imposed restrictions last night on restaurants, gyms, movie theaters, etc. It’s all about slowing the curve.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


We bought Lysol spray and we have been spraying outside of the delivery boxes and leave them by the inside of our entry way for 24 hours before opening them up.  Coronavirus is supposed to live on cardbox paper material for up to 24 hours.


----------



## geist1223

pedro47 said:


> Sometimes I liked to play the Devil Advocate.  Is this a way to reduce the world wide growing senior citizen population?????????
> 
> The major risk population age group are 60 and older.



Or perhaps the homeless population.


----------



## Panina

Breakdown of the first 48 deaths in the US, mostly the elderly 








						Older or Unhealthy: The first 48 U.S. coronavirus deaths in detail
					

Early American fatalities of the coronavirus are mostly elderly or suffering from health issues.




					justthenews.com


----------



## Ken555

10 Days Later: What Italians Wish They Had Known
					

Quarantined Italians record messages to themselves 10 days ago, when the pandemic hadn’t yet killed 1,809 people and infected more than 24,000 across the country.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Panina

Coronavirus: How to protect your mental health https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51873799


----------



## MULTIZ321

FDA Approves the First Commercial Coronavirus Tests in the US 









						FDA Approves the First Commercial Coronavirus Tests in the US
					

Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche and medical-device maker Thermo Fisher collectively have nearly 2 million tests available, with more to come.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


----------



## BagsArePacked

Ken555 said:


> 10 Days Later: What Italians Wish They Had Known
> 
> 
> Quarantined Italians record messages to themselves 10 days ago, when the pandemic hadn’t yet killed 1,809 people and infected more than 24,000 across the country.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theatlantic.com




Thank you Ken.  I enjoyed it and will share with young people around me.  Interesting articles too.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Here's The Difference Between Coronavirus And COVID-19.







						HuffPost is now a part of Verizon Media
					






					www.huffingtonpost.co.uk
				



.


Richard


----------



## pedro47

New theory from China, the USA brought this Coronavirus to China in October 2019 during a sporting event.


----------



## MULTIZ321

New study of COVID-19 patient's immune response could inform future treatment.










						New study of COVID-19 patient’s immune response could inform future treatment – TechCrunch
					

A new study published in science journal Nature Medicine (via Bloomberg) examines the case of a patient who contracted COVID-19 in Wuhan and fell ill in Melbourne, Australia could provide a more comprehensive view of how and why certain people react to the virus more seriously than others. The pati…




					techcrunch.com
				





Richard


----------



## Ken555

Melbourne scientists make major coronavirus breakthrough






						No Cookies | Herald Sun
					

No Cookies




					www.heraldsun.com.au
				






> Melbourne scientists have discovered how the human body overcomes coronavirus in a global breakthrough hoped to fast-track treatments, vaccines and even identify those at risk of dying.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321

Ken555 said:


> Melbourne scientists make major coronavirus breakthrough
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No Cookies | Herald Sun
> 
> 
> No Cookies
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.heraldsun.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Hi Ken,

Your link no longer works, so I've updated the story.

'Very exciting': Melbourne researchers make major COVID-19 coronavirus breakthrough.










						'Very exciting': Melbourne researchers make major COVID-19 coronavirus breakthrough - 3AW
					

A team of Melbourne scientists believe they’ve discovered how the human body overcomes the COVID-19 coronavirus. The team of Doherty Institute researchers has, for the first time, mapped the way a patient’s immune system responds to the virus. It’s hoped the world-first breakthrough will...




					www.3aw.com.au
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Researchers discovered how the body kills the coronavirus.










						Researchers discovered how the body kills the coronavirus
					

Research from Australia determined that the immune system’s response to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 disease is similar to a reaction to the flu in mild-to-moderate cases. Their findings can be used to accelerate the development of a vaccine and treatments, as well as...




					bgr.com
				





Richard


----------



## Conan

pedro47 said:


> New theory from China, the USA brought this Coronavirus to China in October 2019 during a sporting event.


...and surreptitiously seeded it in a wet market where meat, poultry, and seafood are sold alongside live animals for consumption.


----------



## Maple_Leaf

pedro47 said:


> New theory from China, the USA brought this Coronavirus to China in October 2019 during a sporting event.


Come on China, you can come up with a better story than that.


----------



## pedro47

Dr. Oz, stated  this Coronavirus comes from bats in China.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Japanese flu drug appears 'effective' in
coronavirus treatment in Chinese clinical trials.










						Japanese flu drug appears ‘effective’ in coronavirus treatment in Chinese clinical trials – TechCrunch
					

Based on results of clinical trials conducted with affected patients in both Wuhan and Shenzhen by Chinese medical authorities, Japanese-made flu drug favipiravir (also known as Avigan) has been shown to be effective in both reducing the duration of the COVID-19 virus in patients and to have improv…




					techcrunch.com
				





Richard


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller

Richard - thank you for continuing to add to this thread . 
Not is it only a source of information but it will one day be a interesting TUG read of how this unfolded


----------



## Conan

Coronavirus: Will US be ready in the weeks ahead? 








						Coronavirus: Will US be ready in the weeks ahead?
					

Cases are on the rise, but have yet to peak. We ask experts how prepared the country is to handle the outbreak.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## MULTIZ321

One chart shows different countries' current
coronavirus death rates, based on the known number of cases and deaths.










						One chart shows different countries' current coronavirus death rates, based on the known number of cases and deaths
					

A country's coronavirus death rate can depend on how widely it's testing people. As of Wednesday, March 18, Italy's death rate was the highest.




					www.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Why Covid-19 is worse than the flu, in one chart.










						Why Covid-19 is worse than the flu, in one chart
					

It’s more contagious, more deadly (particularly for older people), and it has a greater potential to overwhelm our health care system.




					www.vox.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Rolltydr

MULTIZ321 said:


> Why Covid-19 is worse than the flu, in one chart.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why Covid-19 is worse than the flu, in one chart
> 
> 
> It’s more contagious, more deadly (particularly for older people), and it has a greater potential to overwhelm our health care system.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vox.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard



Thanks, Richard. Very eye-opening chart.


Harry


----------



## alwysonvac

From the CDC - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w#F1_down

_As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States, with reports increasing to 500 or more cases per day beginning March 14 (Figure 1). Among 2,449 patients with known age, 6% were aged ≥85, 25% were aged 65–84 years, 18% each were aged 55–64 years and 45–54 years, and 29% were aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). Only 5% of cases occurred in persons aged 0–19 years.

Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 26% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤9 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table).

Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table).

Among 44 cases with known outcome, 15 (34%) deaths were reported among adults aged ≥85 years, 20 (46%) among adults aged 65–84 years, and nine (20%) among adults aged 20–64 years. Case-fatality percentages increased with increasing age, from no deaths reported among persons aged ≤19 years to highest percentages (10%–27%) among adults aged ≥85 years (Table) (Figure 2)._


----------



## pedro47

Please tell young people between the ages  of 20 to 54 they are more vulnerable
to Coronavirus then first report by the CDC.

Please college students stop partying during spring break on the beaches of Florida and Alabama.

Remember, many of you will be flying home on commercial airlines or riding commercial buses, or car poolings and you maybe carrying the Coronavirus homes to your parents and other friends. IMHO.


----------



## pedro47

geist1223 said:


> Or perhaps the homeless population.


Interesting comments, are or have the homeless population being impacted in China, South Korea, Europe or the United States by the Coronavirus?

This homeless population do not always have soap and water do wash their hands and their body parts. IMO.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

I read that LA is trying to sequester hotels and RV parks to give exposed but not ill homeless (and those stuck traveling who have no place to go) off the street. below is an RV park on the beach where they will house some of these people.









						Dockweiler Beach RV Park Used as Temporary Housing in Response to COVID-19
					

The RV park is one of several locations.




					spectrumnews1.com


----------



## rickandcindy23

Three deaths in Colorado, two were in Colorado Springs/ El Paso County.  I hope this slows down a lot in Colorado.  The snow is flying, so people might stay home and stay warm.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Younger adults are large percentage of coronavirus 
hospitalizations in United States, according to new 
CDC data 




			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/
		



Richard


----------



## caribbeanqueen

I am pretty sure my daughter and family have/had it. My grandchildren were sick for 48 hours. My daughter is on day 9 of a fever and has flu like symptoms. Her doctor told her she had the flu but wouldn't see her nor gave her the swab to confirm it was the flu.
 I told her to call him right back today and tell him that she wanted to be tested and his reply was they did not have enough test kits and we're only testing the critically ill so she is confined in her home and does not have confirmation whether she has the flu or Corona virus. 
Hoping this Malaria drug has some positive effects.


----------



## pedro47

According to former Labor Secretary Robert Reich up to seven (7) million in the restaurant industry could be laid off from the Coronavirus.


----------



## MULTIZ321

French study finds anti-malarial and antibiotic 
combo could reduce COVID-19 duration 










						French study finds anti-malarial and antibiotic combo could reduce COVID-19 duration
					

A new study whose results were published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents has found early evidence that the combination of hydroxychloroquine, a popular anti-malaria drug known under the trade name Plaqenuil, and antibiotic azithromycin (aka Zithromax or Azithrocin) could be...




					techcrunch.com
				





Richard


----------



## "Roger"

I have taken that anti-malarial drug a number of times. It would be nice if it made me immune to COVID-19, but I am sure that is wishful thinking.


----------



## MULTIZ321

See why keeping groups small can save lives in the era of COVID-19.










						See why keeping groups small can save lives in the era of COVID-19
					

The risk of exposing people in a group to the coronavirus goes up exponentially with event size, modeling work suggests.




					www.nationalgeographic.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Chloroquine May Fight Covid-19-and Silicon Valley's Into it.










						Chloroquine May Fight Covid-19—and Silicon Valley’s Into It
					

The old malaria drug is getting used against the coronavirus. Tech enthusiasts are abuzz. One missing step: clinical trials.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Want a coronavirus test? If you have symptoms, you can order one for $135 starting Monday.




			https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241344866.html
		

.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

New blood tests for antibodies could show true scale of coronavirus pandemic.










						New blood tests for antibodies could show true scale of coronavirus pandemic
					

Large-scale testing of populations should reveal those who cleared virus without knowing they were infected




					www.sciencemag.org
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

99% of people who died from COVID-19 in Italy
had other illnesses, according to Italian officials.










						99% of people who died from COVID-19 in Italy had other illnesses, according to Italian officials
					

New numbers from Italy suggest preexisting health conditions matter a lot




					www.deseret.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

How Fast Does a Virus Spread? Let's Do the Math.










						How Fast Does a Virus Spread? Let’s Do the Math
					

Infectious diseases grow exponentially, not linearly. The number of cases seems small—until they're not, and then it's too late.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

MULTIZ321 said:


> Chloroquine May Fight Covid-19-and Silicon Valley's Into it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chloroquine May Fight Covid-19—and Silicon Valley’s Into It
> 
> 
> The old malaria drug is getting used against the coronavirus. Tech enthusiasts are abuzz. One missing step: clinical trials.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wired.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Richard


Chinese Doctors Pulled Back on Trump-Backed Coronavirus Drug Due to Deadly Overdose Fears.










						Chinese Doctors Pulled Back on Trump-Backed Coronavirus Drug Due to Deadly Overdose Fears
					

On Thursday, Trump said chloroquine is “not going to kill anybody.” It turns out that researchers in Wuhan found that not to be true.




					www.thedailybeast.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus origins: genome analysis suggests two viruses may have combined.










						Coronavirus origins: genome analysis suggests two viruses may have combined
					

Scientists have been trying to understand the origin of COVID-19 and the virus that causes it: SARS-CoV-2.




					www.weforum.org
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Nvidia makes its GPU-powered genome
sequencing tool available free to those
studying COVID-19.










						Nvidia makes its GPU-powered genome sequencing tool available free to those studying COVID-19
					

Nvidia is making its Parabricks tool available for free for 90 days (with the possibility of extension, depending on needs) to any researcher currently working on any effort to combat the ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic and spread of COVID-19. The tool is a GPU-accelerated genome analysis...




					techcrunch.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

The World's Most Powerful Supercomputer Has Entered the Fight Against Coronavirus.




			https://onezero.medium.com/the-worlds-most-powerful-supercomputer-has-entered-the-fight-against-coronavirus-3e98c4d67459
		

.


Richard


----------



## Conan

Why the Coronavirus Has Been So Successful
Ed Yong
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/


----------



## MULTIZ321

Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Are Growing Faster in The United States Than Any Other Country in The World.










						Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Are Growing Faster In The United States Than Any Other Country In The World
					

As coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads across the globe, each country hopes that it has the ability to slow its growth in their own country.




					www.forbes.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Ken555

The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who warned of pandemic in 2006, says we can beat the novel coronavirus—but first, we need lots more testing.









						The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
					

Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who warned of pandemic in 2006, says we can beat the novel coronavirus—but first, we need lots more testing.




					www.wired.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

From Facebook:



> A shared essay from Josh Lerner, MD written after the CDC loosened personal protective equipment guidelines for all healthcare workers who are on the front lines fighting to keep you and your family members alive while risking their own health in the process:
> 
> “In one of the most vivid scenes in the HBO miniseries "Chernobyl" (among many vivid scenes), soldiers dressed in leather smocks ran out into radioactive areas to literally shovel radioactive material out of harm's way. Horrifically under-protected, they suited up anyway. In another scene, soldiers fashioned genital protection from scrap metal out of desperation while being sent to other hazardous areas.
> 
> Please don't tell me that in the richest country in the world in the 21st century, I'm supposed to work in a fictionalized Soviet-era disaster zone and fashion my own face mask out of cloth because other Americans hoard supplies for personal use and so-called leaders sit around in meetings hearing themselves talk. I ran to a bedside the other day to intubate a crashing, likely COVID, patient. Two respiratory therapists and two nurses were already at the bedside. That's 5 N95s masks, 5 gowns, 5 face shields and 10 gloves for one patient at one time. I saw probably 15-20 patients that shift, if we are going to start rationing supplies, what percentage should I wear precautions for?
> 
> Make no mistake, the CDC is loosening these guidelines because our country is not prepared. Loosening guidelines increases healthcare workers' risk but the decision is done to allow us to keep working, not to keep us safe. It is done for the public benefit - so I can continue to work no matter the personal cost to me or my family (and my healthcare family). Sending healthcare workers to the front line asking them to cover their face with a bandana is akin to sending a soldier to the front line in a t-shirt and flip flops.
> 
> I don't want talk. I don't want assurances. I want action. I want boxes of N95s piling up, donated from the people who hoarded them. I want non-clinical administrators in the hospital lining up in the ER asking if they can stock shelves to make sure that when I need to rush into a room, the drawer of PPE equipment I open isn't empty. I want them showing up in the ER asking "how can I help" instead of offering shallow "plans" conceived by someone who has spent far too long in an ivory tower and not long enough in the trenches. Maybe they should actually step foot in the trenches.
> 
> I want billion-dollar companies like 3M halting all production of any product that isn't PPE to focus on PPE manufacturing. I want a company like Amazon, with its logistics mastery (it can drop a package to your door less than 24 hours after ordering it), halting its 2-day delivery of 12 reams of toilet paper to whoever is willing to pay the most in order to help get the available PPE supply distributed fast and efficiently in a manner that gets the necessary materials to my brothers and sisters in arms who need them.
> 
> I want Proctor and Gamble, and the makers of other soaps and detergents, stepping up too. We need detergent to clean scrubs, hospital linens and gowns. We need disinfecting wipes to clean desk and computer surfaces. What about plastics manufacturers? Plastic gowns aren't some high-tech device, they are long shirts/smocks...made out of plastic. Get on it. Face shields are just clear plastic. Nitrile gloves? Yeah, they are pretty much just gloves...made from something that isn't apparently Latex. Let's go. Money talks in this country. Executive millionaires, why don't you spend a few bucks to buy back some of these masks from the hoarders, and drop them off at the nearest hospital.
> 
> I love biotechnology and research but we need to divert viral culture media for COVID testing and research. We need biotechnology manufacturing ready and able to ramp up if and when treatments or vaccines are developed. Our Botox supply isn't critical, but our antibiotic supply is. We need to be able to make more plastic ET tubes, not more silicon breast implants.
> 
> Let's see all that. Then we can all talk about how we played our part in this fight. Netflix and chill is not enough while my family, friends and colleagues are out there fighting. Our country won two world wars because the entire country mobilized. We out-produced and we out-manufactured while our soldiers out-fought the enemy. We need to do that again because make no mistake, we are at war, healthcare workers are your soldiers, and the war has just begun.”
> 
> -Josh Lerner, MD.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321

The story behind 'flatten thecurve,' the defining chart ol the coronavirus.










						The story behind ‘flatten the curve,’ the defining chart of the coronavirus
					

Clear. Approachable. Actionable. Perfect.




					www.fastcompany.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

What Happens During A COVID-19 Test.










						What Happens During A COVID-19 Test
					

The six steps involved in testing a Covid-19 sample.




					www.bloombergquint.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Might The Experimental Drug Remdesivir Work
Against COVID-19?










						Might The Experimental Drug Remdesivir Work Against COVID-19?
					

It's too soon to know if the antiviral compound tested in 2014 as a potential Ebola treatment will hobble the coronavirus. Lab tests show promise, but studies in people with COVID-19 have only begun.




					www.npr.org
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Google releases Coronavirus website and makes big changes to COVID-19 search.










						Google releases Coronavirus website and makes big changes to COVID-19 search
					

The new Google COVID-19 website provides important information and resources a glance




					www.tomsguide.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus Test: What You Need to Know.










						Coronavirus Test: What You Need to Know
					

As more and more people are concerned about catching or spreading COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, many want to be tested.




					www.hopkinsmedicine.org
				



.


Richard


----------



## clifffaith

rickandcindy23 said:


> Three deaths in Colorado, two were in Colorado Springs/ El Paso County.  I hope this slows down a lot in Colorado.  The snow is flying, so people might stay home and stay warm.



Article in LA Times today says that Mexican upper classes who ski in Vail every year took CV home with them. Something like half (11/22 or so) of the cases in one particular area trace back to ski vacationers.


----------



## jpc763

clifffaith said:


> Article in LA Times today says that Mexican upper classes who ski in Vail every year took CV home with them. Something like half (11/22 or so) of the cases in one particular area trace back to ski vacationers.


Eagle County in Colorado (which is home to Vail and Beaver Creek ski resorts) is deemed a state "Hot Spot".  It is one of the most affected counties in the state, second only to Denver County. Eagle County has 55000 residents while Denver County has 620000 residents.  Here is an article about it.









						An Unexpected COVID-19 Hotspot Emerges In The Colorado Rockies
					

It was 2 a.m. on Sunday, March 8th and Bill Brueck couldn’t sleep. The 45-year-old father of two, from the snowy town of Minturn, Colorado, had a cough, body aches, chest congestion and a fever.



					talkingpointsmemo.com


----------



## "Roger"

The boldface below is the title of an animated article in the Washington Post. I made the boldface into a clickable link. Unfortunately, I think there will be a firewall that will prevent the link from working. If you do have access to the Washington Post, I _*highly*_ recommend this piece. (The NY Times has dropped its firewall to all articles on the coronavirus, so there is a outside chance that the link will work for everybody if the Washington Post followed suit.)

*Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”*


----------



## Panina

"Roger" said:


> The boldface below is the title of an animated article in the Washington Post. I made the boldface into a clickable link. Unfortunately, I think there will be a firewall that will prevent the link from working. If you do have access to the Washington Post, I _*highly*_ recommend this piece. (The NY Times has dropped its firewall to all articles on the coronavirus, so there is a outside chance that the link will work for everybody if the Washington Post followed suit.)
> 
> *Why outbreaks like coronavirus
> spread exponentially, and
> how to “flatten the curve”*


There is no firewall.  It is the best visualization to understand why we are being told to stay home.


----------



## CO skier

Anyone who understands exponential curves know the difference is made in the early part of the curve -- save $10,000 and put it to work in your early 20s makes a huge difference versus putting $10,000 to work in your late 50s, early 60s.

With regard to Covid-19, we are at the "60s" in the exponential curve -- way too late to make a significant difference in the outcome.  Shutdowns 6-8 weeks ago might have "flattened the curve" "somewhat" (still most definitely not worth the cost in economic damage); shutdowns now does little to affect the ultimate infection and death rate curves (but it makes good politics) and destroys the economy for no good reason in the process.

Politicians are realizing their folly; they kept the Canadian and Mexico borders open for trade.  Too little, too late.


----------



## Ken555

CO skier said:


> Anyone who understands exponential curves know the difference is made in the early part of the curve -- save $10,000 and put it to work in your early 20s makes a huge difference versus putting $10,000 to work in your late 50s, early 60s.
> 
> With regard to Covid-19, we are at the "60s" in the exponential curve -- way too late to make a significant difference in the outcome. Shutdowns 6-8 weeks ago might have "flattened the curve" "somewhat" (still most definitely not worth the cost in economic damage); shutdowns now does little to affect the ultimate infection and death rate curves (but it makes good politics) and destroys the economy for no good reason in the process.
> 
> Politicians are realizing their folly; they kept the Canadian and Mexico borders open for trade. Too little, too late.



Please. Let’s not discuss this particular aspect of what might have been until this is all over. This is just too raw right now.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## CO skier

Ken555 said:


> Please. Let’s not discuss this particular aspect of what might have been until this is all over. This is just too raw right now.


This is not a "what might have been."  This is real time, and if sensible people do not realize the die has been cast regarding the outcome of Covid-19 and pressure politicians to reopen the economy while there is a sliver of a chance, we are doubly doomed -- medically and economically.


----------



## Conan

*How The Virus Got Out*
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...irus-spread.html?referringSource=articleShare

In New York Times interactive style.


----------



## Ken555

Chancellor Merkel’s address to Germany, with English subtitles. Worth watching.







Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## mpizza

Thank you for sharing!

Maria


----------



## caribbeanqueen

I believe my husband and I both had Covid19 back in early January. At the time we had no idea of course. We came back from our Christmas Princess Cruise on a Sunday, the 28th and flew home the 29th which was a Monday. Wednesday I started with a headache that became fierce and strong by Friday. By Sunday I had fever, body aches, chills, dry cough and a bad sinus infection.  My husband started with upper respiratory symptoms with wheezing and rattling.  I ended up in the ER by Monday morning feeling awful and they thought for sure I had the flu. Negative flu and strep test. I was given a steroid for the horrible sinus infection and amoxycillan for the virus. It lasted 6 weeks. My friend who was on the same cruise came down with bad bronchitis and a sinus infection.  
I spoke with an ER doctor I am friendly with (I worked at the community hospital till last year when I retired due to having to visit my elderly parents so often) about our symptoms back in January. He believes I did have it and says he saw a big rise in patients coming in with flu like symptoms but tested negative for flu and bronchitis with symptoms lasting much longer and medications not reducing the illness in the usual timely fashion.  Both he and a cardiologist I know believe this virus has been here much longer than people realize.  This started in September in China but they kept it quiet until it spread so much they could no longer contain the information coming out. The doctor said think of all the people who flew in and out of China for over 4 months not knowing this disease was spreading over there.  

Thankfully the FDA has just approved the use of the combination of the Malaria drug and Zpac together to fight this, especially with patients who become critical. This will make a huge difference.
Sadly not everyone is practicing social distancing so this will continue to spread for months, not weeks until people smarten up.

Our state is saying they will run out of money in weeks. This will be catastrophic to states, towns, businesses all across the globe.  I do not know how the governments will be able to help everyone.  
Thank you to everyone posting articles, very informative. Stay safe and stay healthy!


----------



## Ken555

This is yet another good example of why social distancing helps.



			https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif
		



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## b2bailey

Ken555 said:


> This is yet another good example of why social distancing helps.
> 
> https://thespino/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Best illustration I have seen this far.


----------



## b2bailey

"Roger" said:


> The boldface below is the title of an animated article in the Washington Post. I made the boldface into a clickable link. Unfortunately, I think there will be a firewall that will prevent the link from working. If you do have access to the Washington Post, I _*highly*_ recommend this piece. (The NY Times has dropped its firewall to all articles on the coronavirus, so there is a outside chance that the link will work for everybody if the Washington Post followed suit.)
> 
> *Why outbreaks like coronavirus
> spread exponentially, and
> how to “flatten the curve”*


Did people miss the part that said "moderate social distancing will outperform attempts at quarantine?"


----------



## Ken555

b2bailey said:


> Best illustration I have seen this far.



Yes, I agree. I also think it’s important to stress that even though it’s already here, social distancing will prevent it from infecting more of us at once. Just because we didn’t act early enough (though we could have... yet another discussion for another time) doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do our best to slow the spread now. Lives over money. Let the scientists have the time they need to create a worthwhile treatment and hopefully a vaccine. Until then, I’m staying home.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

This is another good simple presentation on the virus and why just washing your hands helps.









						GIFNG
					

Best GIFs from around the web



					www.gifng.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## CPNY

Ken555 said:


> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Amazing. I sat to eat tonight and prayed thanking God for everything I am blessed with during this time.


----------



## JanT

I think we all need to just be thankful for our blessings right now.  I'm trying to focus on that in the brief moments when I become frustrated that we're not going to be able to sell our house this year and travel as we'd planned.  In the scheme of things that's just a minor blip in our lives.  So, I am grateful for our tremendous blessings and I spend a lot of time in prayer asking God to protect my daughter who got H1N1 in 2011 and almost died from it.  I just want her to remain healthy.  I'll give up whatever I have to for that.



CPNY said:


> Amazing. I sat to eat tonight and prayed thanking God for everything I am blessed with during this time.


----------



## CPNY

JanT said:


> I think we all need to just be thankful for our blessings right now.  I'm trying to focus on that in the brief moments when I become frustrated that we're not going to be able to sell our house this year and travel as we'd planned.  In the scheme of things that's just a minor blip in our lives.  So, I am grateful for our tremendous blessings and I spend a lot of time in prayer asking God to protect my daughter who got H1N1 in 2011 and almost died from it.  I just want her to remain healthy.  I'll give up whatever I have to for that.


Very true. I had a free Europe trip, a music festival that is impossible to get tickets for and a wedding in Italy. I’m not complaining one bit. I’m focused on not watching people pass from this virus. I want to emerge quickly. We cannot afford to be shut down for months so we have to do our part to make sure we don’t let this get out of hand


----------



## pedro47

IMHO, the Governor of New York , just gave the best speech on the Coronavirus, He gave his plans, objectives, missions and the State of New York missions to curtail this Coronavirus.

He did not involved the word ”I” in his speech.

We must do social distances and still her spiritual love.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

CPNY said:


> Very true. I had a free Europe trip, a music festival that is impossible to get tickets for and a wedding in Italy. I’m not complaining one bit. I’m focused on not watching people pass from this virus. I want to emerge quickly. We cannot afford to be shut down for months so we have to do our part to make sure we don’t let this get out of hand


I'm on kind of a mission to clear up a common misconception.  "Flattening the curve" means prolonging the epidemic.  The fastest way through the pandemic is to take no precautions whatsoever, even to encourage people to intermingle, so the virus spreads as quickly as possible and runs it's course through the population as quickly as possible.  That leads to the fastest way of having a population on earth that is immune and resistant to the virus. That is also the course that results in the most deaths.  Essentially, it's the Spanish flue redux, because during that pandemic there weren't control options.

If we can't afford to be shut down for months, then we are on the wrong course.


----------



## b2bailey

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> I'm on kind of a mission to clear up a common misconception.  "Flattening the curve" means prolonging the epidemic.  The fastest way through the pandemic is to take no precautions whatsoever, even to encourage people to intermingle, so the virus spreads as quickly as possible and runs it's course through the population as quickly as possible.  That leads to the fastest way of having a population on earth that is immune and resistant to the virus. That is also the course that results in the most deaths.  Essentially, it's the Spanish flue redux, because during that pandemic there weren't control options.
> 
> If we can't afford to be shut down for months, then we are on the wrong course.


There is a small part of me that agrees with you. Just watched an interview (on major network) of post middle age woman artist. Her sole source of income is the sale of goods at art shows, festivals, etc. All have been cancelled. She cannot collect unemployment, her name will not be on the list to receive a $1,000 magic check. What is she to do?


----------



## CPNY

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> I'm on kind of a mission to clear up a common misconception.  "Flattening the curve" means prolonging the epidemic.  The fastest way through the pandemic is to take no precautions whatsoever, even to encourage people to intermingle, so the virus spreads as quickly as possible and runs it's course through the population as quickly as possible.  That leads to the fastest way of having a population on earth that is immune and resistant to the virus. That is also the course that results in the most deaths.  Essentially, it's the Spanish flue redux, because during that pandemic there weren't control options.
> 
> If we can't afford to be shut down for months, then we are on the wrong course.


Or we can prolong it to less severe cases, and fee space in our health systems it will result in less death. Swine flu was around a very long time but we didn’t hear about it. The world didn’t stop. I think I’m already positive for it anyway.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

CPNY said:


> Or we can prolong it to less severe cases, and fee space in our health systems it will result in less death. Swine flu was around a very long time but we didn’t hear about it. The world didn’t stop. I think I’m already positive for it anyway.


That's what flattening the curve is about.  It is prolonging the epidemic to be able to provide more health care to the most severely affected, and also possibly develop and deploy countermeasures before everyone is exposed. But that absolutely comes with a cost - the cost being prolonged shutdown.  And I wonder about the ability of governments to actually be able to make all of the financial commitments that are being made.  Where is the money going to come from if the economy is shut down and taxes aren't being paid.  Who is going to buy government debt if there isn't confidence in the ability of the government to repay that debt?


----------



## moonstone

We left Belize on Saturday and there were no confirmed cases. The first positive test came back today. A woman in her 30s who flew in from California last Thursday. I guess she doesn't know what 'shelter in place' means! We talked to quite a few expats who were going to ride it out in Belize thinking it would be safe there. Now the Belizean officials are tracking down everybody who sat near her on the small plane from the airport to San Pedro and then was near her at her hotel. 

-Diane


----------



## Ken555

From my FB feed this morning: 



> Please check my math and assumptions. On average it takes 18 days from Covid19 detection to death. This morning there were 473 deaths attributed to C19. Assuming 3.5% death rate, that implies that on March 4 there were around 13,500 cases. However, on March 4 it was reported USA had 138 confirmed. In round numbers that is a 100x delta between estimate and reality. Using the current confirmed case count of 41,000 that implies an actual case count of 4.1 Million.
> 
> STAY HOME




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ken555

This article is very informative re food safety. I’ve read some of this info separately but this puts it all in one place:









						Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide
					

Questions about COVID-19 and food safety, answered.




					www.seriouseats.com
				





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## MULTIZ321

FDA approves rapid coronavirus test that gives
results in 45 minutes.










						FDA approves rapid coronavirus test that gives results in 45 minutes
					

It goes without saying that coronavirus testing is one of the key weapons for fighting the COVID-19 outbreak, and the FDA just approved a quick …




					bgr.com
				





Richard


----------



## WVBaker

Ken555 said:


> From my FB feed this morning:



What would be the source for these figures?

According to the latest numbers, the total confirmed cases in the U.S. is 40,961 with 485 total deaths, which brings the percentage to 1.8%, not 3.5%.






						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					www.arcgis.com


----------



## "Roger"

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> I'm on kind of a mission to clear up a common misconception.  "Flattening the curve" means prolonging the epidemic.  The fastest way through the pandemic is to take no precautions whatsoever, even to encourage people to intermingle, so the virus spreads as quickly as possible and runs it's course through the population as quickly as possible.  That leads to the fastest way of having a population on earth that is immune and resistant to the virus. That is also the course that results in the most deaths.  Essentially, it's the Spanish flue redux, because during that pandemic there weren't control options.
> 
> If we can't afford to be shut down for months, then we are on the wrong course.


Even if you wanted to ignore the virus and take the hit, you might get a partial return to normalcy, but not a total return. Even before any state restrictions, TUGGERS were saying "I'm not going on a cruise." "I am not flying." Restaurant business was already way down before the mandatory restrictions. Etc. Etc. Etc. Even without any lockdowns or whatever, there would still be lots of layoffs and damage to the economy.

We (the United States) have been way behind on having testing available (no comment). I would think that the best hope for a partial return to normalcy would be to follow the South Korean and Japanese models of massive testing with quarantines for those testing positive. This does not stop the virus, but has helped slow it down in countries that were hard hit early. This would allow for at least some return to normalcy earlier. 

PS - Sporting events - no go. Even if leagues were to hold games in empty stadiums just for TV coverage, what happens when a reserve team member of the Seattle Seahawks (hitting below the belt) tests positive? The team goes on a two week self quarantine. Kind of screws up the season schedule.


----------



## Ken555

WVBaker said:


> What would be the source for these figures?
> 
> According to the latest numbers, the total confirmed cases in the U.S. is 40,961 with 485 total deaths, which brings the percentage to 1.8%, not 3.5%.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ArcGIS Dashboards
> 
> 
> ArcGIS Dashboards
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.arcgis.com



Yes, but sadly that's not the way to calculate the result.



> Death rate is really only accurate way after the fact. In real time we need to consider the ratio of New Cases 18 days prior to today relative to the dead count today,.   In china they determined a 3.4% overall death rate in the hardest hit areas overall I believe.


----------



## WVBaker

Ken555 said:


> Yes, but sadly that's not the way to calculate the result.


And once again, your source?


----------



## Ken555

WVBaker said:


> And once again, your source?



Run the numbers yourself. This is objective and public info. I obtained this from a friend who is updating his own calculations based on public info.

Simply use the death totals from today and the number of cases from 18 days ago. Obviously, this is a rather fluid calculation as numbers and averages are changing. Of course, we can't be certain of the exact China numbers yet (there are a number of conflicting reports). But, simply dividing the total number of deaths and cases of "today" is not accurate due to the incubation period (and even that period is rapidly changing as the reports are now coming in from more sources).


----------



## WVBaker

I would prefer to base my numbers on facts without manipulation to reach a conclusion. But hey, thanks for the opinion.


----------



## Ken555

WVBaker said:


> I would prefer to base my numbers on facts without manipulation to reach a conclusion. But hey, thanks for the opinion.



1. find the death numbers from today.
2. determine the average incubation period (based on the info my friend had, all public, it was 18 days but this is changing rapidly)
3. look up the number of cases from x days ago (x = average incubation period)
4. divide death total from today by x

There's nothing secret or manipulative here.

On the flip side, perhaps you should try defending your claim that simply dividing today's death total by today's number of cases is accurate. Good luck with that.


----------



## MULTIZ321

MULTIZ321 said:


> FDA approves rapid coronavirus test that gives
> results in 45 minutes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FDA approves rapid coronavirus test that gives results in 45 minutes
> 
> 
> It goes without saying that coronavirus testing is one of the key weapons for fighting the COVID-19 outbreak, and the FDA just approved a quick …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> bgr.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Richard



Newly approved novel coronavirus test gives 
results in 45 minutes 









						Newly approved novel coronavirus test gives results in 45 minutes
					

It’s only for hospitals




					www.theverge.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## GetawaysRus

A bit confusing, but the author appears to say that this change in policy is a good thing.









						Gilead revises access to remdesivir for COVID-19 amid surge in demand
					

Gilead Sciences said it cannot accept new compassionate use requests for its investigational antiviral remdesivir due to “overwhelming demand” from physicians hoping to repurpose the drug as a potential therapy for patients with COVID-19, but there are still ways to get access to the medication...




					www.healio.com


----------



## MULTIZ321

Is The Math Too Hard For People To Understand COVID-19 Coronavirus?










						Is The Math Too Hard For People To Understand COVID-19 Coronavirus?
					

Is some of the skepticism about COVID-19 Coronavirus because the math is too hard?




					www.forbes.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## CO skier

MULTIZ321 said:


> Is The Math Too Hard For People To Understand COVID-19 Coronavirus?


To my mind, world leaders, and state governors especially, do not understand exponential curves (it is waaaaay too late on the Covid-19 exponential infection curves for a "15-day program" or "stay-at-homes" to have much effect versus just letting the virus run its course in a functioning, socially-distanced economy.  There is no stopping the virus from running its course at this point in time).

And they must have missed the history course on the Great Depression, because that is what the current shutdowns are engineering.

We are in uncharted waters, economically speaking.  To think the economy will quickly "bounce back" (let alone "better than ever") even with trillion dollar handouts that put only $3,000-4,000, or so, in the hands of consumers and small businesses is Fantasy Island thinking.

"Once the fantasy begins, you must see it through."


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Though I have significant differences from Governor Inslee in Washington, I do respect how he has been listening to and taking advice from technical people.  The measures that he has introduced have seemed to me to practical in rational response to the issues involved.  

We'll see how it plays out.  But it seems to me that he has rolled out measures as needed (if anything, a bit too slowly but he was still ahead of most of the rest of the US), while also steering clear of overreacting (maintaining social distancing instead of going into full self-quarantine mode).


----------



## Ken555

This is the best explanation I’ve seen yet on why social distancing is so important. Please watch.


‘This Is The Only Way Forward. This Virus Is Unforgiving’: Epidemiologist Backs Order To Stay Home During Coronavirus Outbreak









						'This Is The Only Way Forward. This Virus Is Unforgiving': Epidemiologist Backs Order To Stay Home During Coronavirus Outbreak
					

"This is the only way forward," said Dr. Emily Landon, lead epidemiologist at University of Chicago Medicine. "This virus is unforgiving. It spreads before you even know you've caught it, and it tricks you into believing that it's nothing more than a little influenza."




					chicago.cbslocal.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CO skier

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> We'll see how it plays out.


Look at how it is playing out in New York City.  At today's Coronavirus Task Force Team briefing, it was mentioned that Covid-19 must have been circulating throughout that community for at least 6 weeks.  It will be 4 weeks, at least, before the mitigation effects of the recent lockdown have any noticeable effect on the exponential infection curve.  The infection curve may peak and decline in the meantime as a result of the natural progression of the disease.  Which would mean the lockdown had little effect on the ultimate outcome of total infections and casualties, but catastrophic effects on the economy.


----------



## CPNY

GetawaysRus said:


> A bit confusing, but the author appears to say that this change in policy is a good thing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gilead revises access to remdesivir for COVID-19 amid surge in demand
> 
> 
> Gilead Sciences said it cannot accept new compassionate use requests for its investigational antiviral remdesivir due to “overwhelming demand” from physicians hoping to repurpose the drug as a potential therapy for patients with COVID-19, but there are still ways to get access to the medication...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.healio.com


I assume it’s what we are seeing currently with Hydro-Chloroquine. Everyone from nurse practitioners, Doctors, to Dentists are ordering large quantities or at least trying to order the Malaria drug for what ifs for them or their family and friends. Once again, the human race being extremely selfish and hoarding medications for what ifs that may never come. They will sit on the medication and it will expire with no need for it. Rather than allow health systems to stock pile the drug IF it is actually working so they can give it to the appropriate patients. so what I’m reading with this article is the company is suspending Dr. X from applying for the drug for compassionate use.....basically trying for patients that may get better in their own. So to eliminate the any issues with supply issues, they are holding back for most at risk patients: pregnant women, children under 18 and critically ill patients.

in short, Gilead is not letting everyone come in and frantically buy up all the toilet paper. They are holding it back for the little old lady who’s standing there outside the crowd with nothing in her hand.


----------



## CPNY

CO skier said:


> Look at how it is playing out in New York City.  At today's Coronavirus Task Force Team briefing, it was mentioned that Covid-19 must have been circulating throughout that community for at least 6 weeks.  It will be 4 weeks, at least, before the mitigation effects of the recent lockdown have any noticeable effect on the exponential infection curve.  The infection curve may peak and decline in the meantime as a result of the natural progression of the disease.  Which would mean the lockdown had little effect on the ultimate outcome of total infections and casualties, but catastrophic effects on the economy.


AT LEAST!! I had symptoms begin Feb 28th and still having chest pain, cough and breathing issues (just happened this passed week) all symptoms in the first week and a half then cough, then this past week and a half of breathing difficulties. This thing can last a while!


----------



## CPNY

Oh wow! I fear this isn’t going anywhere for a long time! It will be spread and passed around for a long time. Scary. 17 days 









						CDC says coronavirus RNA found in Princess Cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after passengers left
					

Traces of the coronavirus were found up to 17 days after passengers disembarked the Diamond Princess cruise ship, surviving far longer on surfaces than previous research has shown, according to new data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

CPNY said:


> AT LEAST!! I had symptoms begin Feb 28th and still having chest pain, cough and breathing issues (just happened this passed week) all symptoms in the first week and a half then cough, then this past week and a half of breathing difficulties. This thing can last a while!


If you like historic precedent,, it strikes me that this is similar to the Spanish flu pandemic, but not quite as lethal.  The Spanish flue killed about 3% of the world population, and COVID-19 doesn't seems about one order of magnitude less lethal.


----------



## CO skier

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> If you like historic precedent,, it strikes me that this is similar to the Spanish flu pandemic, but not quite as lethal.  The Spanish flue killed about 3% of the world population, and COVID-19 doesn't seems about one order of magnitude less lethal.


Which makes it a run-of-the-mill virus.  But world leaders sacrificed the economy as a result of the (media?) hysteria that made the virus political?


----------



## Panina

CO skier said:


> Which makes it a run-of-the-mill virus.  But world leaders sacrificed the economy as a result of the (media?) hysteria that made the virus political?


Possibly but you can look at it both ways.  

If the collapse of the healthcare systems occur because they can’t handle the volume, many more deaths will occur then if it doesn’t collapse versus the economy being sacrificed for awhile.  If the healthcare system collapses not only will more coronavirus patients die, so will many others as the system will not be able to help them, heart attacks, strokes, cancer, people needing emergency services,  etc.  Either way not a good choice.  

I personally choose to minimize risk to life and keep the Healthcare systems from collapsing because if they do the economy will still have major issues.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

CO skier said:


> Which makes it a run-of-the-mill virus.  But world leaders sacrificed the economy as a result of the (media?) hysteria that made the virus political?


It's certainly valid to ask to whether the cure is worse than the disease?

And I would say that public health officials are not the proper people to ask that question.  That's like asking the American Society of Civil Engineers (of whom I am a Lifetime Member) whether the USA needs to increase its investment in infrastructure.  You will get an informed an answer, but it won't be an objective answer. 

That's a tricky question. Where is the trade-off between letting more people die and increased economic disruption?


----------



## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Where is the trade-off between letting more people die and increased economic disruption?



It is quite saddening to see this question even being asked and discussed openly by elected and appointed members of government. Government exists to serve its citizens, and this question admits the desire by some to alleviate economic hardship in exchange for people dying. This is a time where actions speak louder than words.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

CPNY said:


> AT LEAST!! I had symptoms begin Feb 28th and still having chest pain, cough and breathing issues (just happened this passed week) all symptoms in the first week and a half then cough, then this past week and a half of breathing difficulties. This thing can last a while!



Hope you feel better soon!


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----------



## MULTIZ321

Abbott Shipping Thousands Of Coronavirus Test Kits.










						Abbott Shipping Thousands Of Coronavirus Test Kits
					

The FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization for the tests.




					patch.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Ken555

Interesting and cheap design to protect health care workers. Anyone here know a manufacturer who might assist?






						Aerosol Block
					






					www.aerosolblock.org
				






> pWith the ongoing global outbreak of COVID-19, many infected patients develop respiratory failure requiring endotracheal intubation. Since COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and aerosol, healthcare providers who are intubating these patients are at high risk of contracting this deadly virus during the intubation process.




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----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> It is quite saddening to see this question even being asked and discussed openly by elected and appointed members of government. Government exists to serve its citizens, and this question admits the desire by some to alleviate economic hardship in exchange for people dying. This is a time where actions speak louder than words.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


But it's a question that needs to be considered.

The current world population is 7.7 billion people.  Implementing COVID-19 response actions is clearly degrading the world economic system.  Suppose that the disruptions to the international economy result in a world economy that can only support 5 billion people. (That roughly equates to a 33% decrease in world economic output, which doesn't seem unreasonable to mre under current conditions.)

Would a decrease in world population of 2.7 billion people (largely due to starvation, pestilence, and disease) be a worthwhile tradeoff to implement COVID-19 protective measures? If such a scenario played out, where would those deaths occur, and shouldn't those countries be afforded a strong voice in the global response?

We can't just stick our head in the sand and not ask those questions because they are uncomfortable questions to ask. I would also submit that it's both unfair and inappropriate to ask public health officials to answer those questions.  Those questions get to public policy, which means that our elected officials are the ones who need to make those decisions.

*********

At some point it's entirely reasonable to ask whether the cure is worse than the disease.  And we need to consider that question on a global scale.  What might be a small price for us might be a devastating impact someplace else.


----------



## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> But it's a question that needs to be considered.



I disagree. This topic is counterproductive and inherently defeatist.


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----------



## CalGalTraveler

We are taking these drastic measures to slow down the pandemic because there is a lack respirator and supply capacity in the healthcare system. As discussed this is devastating the economy. What we are hoping to avoid is unnecessary death because of lack of access to respirators resulting in draconian life and death decisions.  Despite these efforts, it is expected that large portions of the population will get Covid-19 over time. Some will die regardless.

I keep wondering: what if the government had these healthcare supplies stockpiled similar to the national oil reserve? Would we be undergoing such drastic measures to shut down our economy? Of course certain populations such as the elderly would still need to socially distance. But I don't think it would have to be everyone.

We can't change the past, but perhaps pulling out all stops to manufacture this healthcare capacity quickly will remove the current restrictions sooner.  It's not a perfect solution but it could help segments of the country get working again. Some manufacturing workers could get back on the job building respirators and medical supplies. And unlike looking for a vaccine, it is something we can control now.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> I disagree. This topic is counterproductive and inherently defeatist.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


And I disagree. Being proactive, which to me is the opposite of defeatist, means asking all question,  looking at all options and considerations, and determining the best path forward based on a full and best analysis of information at the time a decision is required.   But the best path forward cannot be determined if the possibility of certain hypotheses are excluded from consideration arbitrarily or by fiat.   That's like trying to develop a cosmic model of the solar system in which it is not allowable to have the Earth as the center of the solar system because anything else would be counterproductive and would undercut the faith of the masses.

Defeatism occurs when one blithely accepts certain outcomes as inevitable or preordained, or when a course of action is decided upon, and that course of action is overwhelmed by an option that was not socially acceptable to consider, leaving the leaders almost impotent to respond to the new reality.  Such as a government that initially denies the existence of corona virus outbreak, and then finds itself inundated by the consequences of its inaction.


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller

pedro47 said:


> IMHO, the Governor of New York , just gave the best speech on the Coronavirus, He gave his plans, objectives, missions and the State of New York missions to curtail this Coronavirus.


RE: Governor of New York State
I listen to his brother interview him on CNN last night ( Mon March 23)
[added - watching again / Tues 11 am - New York State press conference .]

The question was asked - “what did you miss as you started planning” - ( my paraphrase )
The answer from the governor - Ventilator availability ( as a key bottleneck) - ( my paraphrase )

I think he is doing a good job being honest / and dealing with a healthcare tsunami that he knows will hit - cause many deaths - and do a lot of economic damage .

**************
The questions now being asked in this thread are valid - IMO .

*************
In a worldwide context - if North America saves 1,000,000  of “ us “ / and 35,000,000 of “them”starve to death
elsewhere in the world . - are we simply acting like the wealthy person on the Titanic - who saved himself .

***************
We will shortly see in real time (in North America) how this plays out -  Mexico .

This week - the President of México was still urging people to go out to a restaurant & spend money .
8% of Mexico’s economy is tourism - and for internal tourism - the two weeks on either side Easter Sunday are key -Semana Santa & Pascua -weeks that mean beach  resorts & resort towns are 110 % full of Mexican Nationals spending money . For the beach vendor living day to day it is a key time to gain a small nest to tide one through .
IMO- Obrador was hoping the Covid 19  tsunami would hit Mexico after the Easter Holidays .
It is a high wire act with no parachute - that may or may not work .
Mexico and its government  has been “ willing to tolerate “ a significant collateral damage death rate per year
in (mostly)  non tourist areas - of which most of us are aware .
How the current Mexican Government response to Covid 19 plays out is unknown .
We all will get to witness the results of Mexican Gov /  Covid 19  over the coming weeks and months .

******
Keep washing your hands


----------



## CPNY

T-Dot-Traveller said:


> RE: Governor of New York State
> I listen to his brother interview him on CNN last night ( Mon March 23)
> 
> The question was asked - “what did you miss as you started planning” - ( my paraphrase )
> The answer from the governor - Ventilator availability ( as a key bottleneck) - ( my paraphrase )
> 
> I think he is doing a good job being honest / and dealing with a healthcare tsunami that he knows will hit - cause many deaths - and do a lot of economic damage .
> 
> **************
> The questions now being asked in this thread are valid - IMO .
> 
> *************
> In a worldwide context - if North America saves 1,000,000  of “ us “ / and 35,000,000 of “them”starve to death
> elsewhere in the world . - are we simply acting like the wealthy person on the Titanic - who saved himself .
> 
> ***************
> We will shortly see in real time (in North America) how this plays out -  Mexico .
> 
> This week - the President of México was still urging people to go out to a restaurant & spend money .
> 8% of Mexico’s economy is tourism - and for internal tourism - the 2 weeks on either side Easter are key -
> Pasqua & Semana Santa weeks mean beach  resorts & resort towns are 110 % full of Mexican Nationals spending money . For the beach vendor living day to day it is a key time to gain a small nest to tide one through .
> IMO- he was hoping the Covid 19  tsunami would hit Mexico after the Easter Holidays .
> It is a high wire act with no parachute - that may or may not work .
> Mexico and its government  has been “ willing to tolerate “ a significant collateral damage death rate per year
> in (mostly)  non tourist areas - of which most of us are aware .
> How the current Mexican Government response to Covid 19 plays out is unknown .
> We all will get to witness the results of Mexican Gov /  Covid 19  over the coming weeks and months .
> 
> ******
> Keep washing your hands


Back in 2015 NYS was given a report that they were 18,000 respirators short in case of a pandemic. They chose to not spend the money on needed respirators and necessary equipment. That was a big big mis step. The threat of pandemics has been warned for decades. Even more so since the last SARS/MERS/Swine Flu outbreaks. Cuomo is doing well with this, with his clear direction. Our mayor, not so much at all. I just keep hoping and praying we have gotten ahead of the curve. Ahead enough to save lives and have more time to get PPE to those who need it!


----------



## "Roger"

As long as we are taking the possibility of opening up the economy seriously, I would be totally against it until a few intermediate goals were reached.

We currently have only about 350,000 testing kits available with a million promised soon. I don't want to get into the blame game about these numbers, but suggest that we should not open up the economy until there is a massive increase (far beyond one million) test kits available. Then, at least, people could be tested frequently and isolated if necessary. This would help slow down the spread of the coronovirus even in a more open economy.

In a similar vein, there should be enough N95 masks for health care workers before accepting more coronovirus patients for the sake of the economy.

Ventilators? (Trickier in that you don't just need ventilators, but people trained to use them.) 
************
Then there are the questions of what opening up the economy would mean.

Will large gatherings be allowed? Sports, but not symphony concerts? (The idea that the latter would at all be considered important was the subject of a sarcastic comment lately.) Church services?

Will people be encouraged to go to restaurants? (I am not sure that I heard this correctly, but 15% of the people employed either work either at restaurants or at restaurants as a second job.) What happens when people don't come?

Similar questions can be asked about the airline industry, hotels, and cruise ships.

I am sure that there are lots of other questions that can be asked about what it would mean to open up the economy.
*****************
A third area of discussion would be given a shortage of ventilators, who gets them. Not nice to say (but then again the whole topic of opening up the economy and sacrificing a lot of lives is not the most delicate topic), I am part of the more at risk population simply because of my age. At the same time, I know that I am far more healthy than many people that I see in the supermarkets who age wise are under sixty. Smokers? Very touchy, the extremely obese? I can tell you that from having taught a course in medical ethics, discussion of these sorts of issues were the most heated of any during the semester and that was in the confines of a classroom which is a fairly safe area for open discussion. I shutter at the prospect of a more for real discussion as policies are made.


----------



## GetawaysRus

Here is a medical news article about hydroxychloroquine (also called Plaquenil) written for rheumatologists.  Understand that this is NOT a scientific article from a peer-reviewed medical journal.  Think of this as a newspaper for rheumatologists.  But it will bring you more up to date on the science:









						Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19? Experts discuss its promise, risks amid reports of shortages
					

Late last week, President Donald Trump sent shockwaves through the medical industry when he announced in a press conference that the FDA had approved the anti-malarial hydroxychloroquine to treat patients infected with coronavirus. The president added that doctors would be able to prescribe the...




					www.healio.com
				




I did read the French study a few days ago (it took a couple of clicks to get to it from a link posted here on TUG), and I agree that it is a flawed study.  There were a number of patients who were not included in the final analysis.  Essentially, the authors wrote "a bunch of our patients couldn't tolerate this drug because of side effects or, oops, they got really sick or died.  So we excluded them from the final analysis.  And if we exclude those individuals, wow, our results are really great!"  Sorry, but I don't think you get to exclude dead people or treatment failures from your analysis.

One more thing that no one seems to be talking about.  The usual dose of Plaquenil for rheumatoid arthritis or lupus is 200 mg twice daily.  In the French study, the dosage was 200 mg three times daily.  I saw no comment in the French paper about side effects of hydroxychloroquine or the hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combo other than those comments that they had to drop some people from their analysis because they could not tolerate the drug or got severely ill or died.


----------



## AJCts411

CalGalTraveler said:


> We are taking these drastic measures to slow down the pandemic because there is a lack respirator and supply capacity in the healthcare system. As discussed this is devastating the economy. What we are hoping to avoid is unnecessary death because of lack of access to respirators resulting in draconian life and death decisions.  Despite these efforts, it is expected that large portions of the population will get Covid-19 over time. Some will die regardless.
> 
> I keep wondering: what if the government had these healthcare supplies stockpiled similar to the national oil reserve? Would we be undergoing such drastic measures to shut down our economy? Of course certain populations such as the elderly would still need to socially distance. But I don't think it would have to be everyone.
> 
> We can't change the past, but perhaps pulling out all stops to manufacture this healthcare capacity quickly will remove the current restrictions sooner.  It's not a perfect solution but it could help segments of the country get working again. Some manufacturing workers could get back on the job building respirators and medical supplies. And unlike looking for a vaccine, it is something we can control now.



I think we all are relying on the "government" all far too much.  What should the Government stock, what crystal ball should they use?  Multiple experts will have multiple answers.  The left will and this the right will want that.   Being able to respond in the best way on a specific day is al lwe can ask. The rest, we as individuals need to take responsibility for being prepared in at least a minimal way. Disinfectants, a few masks, some dry goods, necessities of life for 30 days. Stocked over a period of time to counter the hoarding we see.    Who can foresee what we need to counter the next unknown threat?   I am 100% positive the "governments" crystal ball is as good as yours.   There is a positive...it is the private sector, manufacturing, that is jumping in and solving supply issues, with the "government" getting out of the way with forgoing certain regulations and red tape.


----------



## Glynda

moonstone said:


> We left Belize on Saturday and there were no confirmed cases. The first positive test came back today. A woman in her 30s who flew in from California last Thursday. I guess she doesn't know what 'shelter in place' means! We talked to quite a few expats who were going to ride it out in Belize thinking it would be safe there. Now the Belizean officials are tracking down everybody who sat near her on the small plane from the airport to San Pedro and then was near her at her hotel.
> 
> -Diane



It almost seems as if warmer countries have fewer cases.  Or is this a virus moving from North to South?


----------



## queenofthehive

What kind of society have we become when we refuse to protect human life? Very disappointing indeed...


----------



## Ken555

When You Die of the Coronavirus, You Die Alone
Containing a pandemic means keeping visitors out of the I.C.U. 
My patients will suffer in solitary confinement.









						Opinion | I’m on the Front Lines. I Have No Plan for This. (Published 2020)
					

We’re not allowing visitors in the I.C.U. My patients will suffer in solitary confinement.




					www.nytimes.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321

As coronavirus pandemic worsens, Elon Musk makes good on ventilator promise.










						As coronavirus pandemic worsens, Elon Musk makes good on ventilator promise
					

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk made good on his promise to deliver ventilators to aid in the coronavirus pandemic, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday.




					www.foxnews.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

This is the reason why the spread of Coronavirus is so rapid.










						This is the reason why the spread of Coronavirus is so rapid
					

Research into infection looks at the time it takes for symptoms to appear in two people with the virus: the person who infects another, and the infected second person.




					www.weforum.org
				





Richard


----------



## CalGalTraveler

AJCts411 said:


> I think we all are relying on the "government" all far too much.  What should the Government stock, what crystal ball should they use?  Multiple experts will have multiple answers.  The left will and this the right will want that.   Being able to respond in the best way on a specific day is al lwe can ask. The rest, we as individuals need to take responsibility for being prepared in at least a minimal way. Disinfectants, a few masks, some dry goods, necessities of life for 30 days. Stocked over a period of time to counter the hoarding we see.    Who can foresee what we need to counter the next unknown threat?   I am 100% positive the "governments" crystal ball is as good as yours.   There is a positive...it is the private sector, manufacturing, that is jumping in and solving supply issues, with the "government" getting out of the way with forgoing certain regulations and red tape.



I am all for private enterprise and avoiding red tape. However there can be government identification of manufacturers, tax incentives and coordination to get the ventilators to the places that need it the most quickly. Right now it is every health care system for themselves and this is driving up prices and inconsistencies as to where the supplies go. The most well funded healthcare systems can pay the highest price. This may not get the supplies to poorer health systems which may need it more.

While I agree that the vast majority were underprepared at home, taking your argument to the extreme, should we all buy ventilators and HPE for each of our family members and stockpile them for ourselves in our home for the next pandemic? Hint: this mindset that the government won't help is what's driving to people to panic and stockpile at stores.


----------



## Fredflintstone

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> But it's a question that needs to be considered.
> 
> The current world population is 7.7 billion people. Implementing COVID-19 response actions is clearly degrading the world economic system. Suppose that the disruptions to the international economy result in a world economy that can only support 5 billion people. (That roughly equates to a 33% decrease in world economic output, which doesn't seem unreasonable to mre under current conditions.)
> 
> Would a decrease in world population of 2.7 billion people (largely due to starvation, pestilence, and disease) be a worthwhile tradeoff to implement COVID-19 protective measures? If such a scenario played out, where would those deaths occur, and shouldn't those countries be afforded a strong voice in the global response?
> 
> We can't just stick our head in the sand and not ask those questions because they are uncomfortable questions to ask. I would also submit that it's both unfair and inappropriate to ask public health officials to answer those questions. Those questions get to public policy, which means that our elected officials are the ones who need to make those decisions.
> 
> *********
> 
> At some point it's entirely reasonable to ask whether the cure is worse than the disease. And we need to consider that question on a global scale. What might be a small price for us might be a devastating impact someplace else.



I am not sure if you are alluding to the death rate may improve the world better being able to handle the population or not.

Here’s the way I look at it.

1. Human beings are priceless. We have an obligation to do whatever is necessary to save anyone and everyone. Yes, deaths will occur but that doesn’t absolve our responsibility to attempt to mitigate death.
2. With technology and advancements, we can clearly support the global population. Studies have shown for quite some time that the reason why we have disparity is because of greed and sometimes corruption, not lack of resources.

I look at economic systems as secondary to human life. In the end, we will be fine and that’s with the current population numbers. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321

The Promising Math Behind 'Flattening the Curve'









						The Promising Math Behind ‘Flattening the Curve’
					

Infectious diseases spread exponentially, yes, but only in the beginning. Thank God.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


----------



## Ken555

From a friend who works for UNHCR:



> I’m on a conference call about COVID-19 in Colombia. WHO/PAHO has been presenting.
> One fact that stood out for me: Worldwide, it took 67 days to reach 100k confirmed cases; it took another 11 days to reach 200k cases; and it took only another 4 days to reach 300k cases!
> The exponential transmission rate is really scary.


----------



## b2bailey

T-Dot-Traveller said:


> RE: Governor of New York State
> 
> ...
> The question was asked - “what did you miss as you started planning” - ( my paraphrase )
> The answer from the governor - Ventilator availability
> 
> **************
> The questions now being asked in this thread are valid - IMO .
> 
> *************
> In a worldwide context - if North America saves 1,000,000  of “ us “ / and 35,000,000 of “them”starve to death
> elsewhere in the world . - are we simply acting like the wealthy person on the Titanic - who saved himself .
> 
> ******
> Keep washing your hands



 I think each of the below could evolve into a thread of it's own.
1. Ventilator supply
2. Freedom to speak openly on TUG threads
3. Death by disease or starvation

1. I was happy to hear Cuomo suggest that Ventilators could be forwarded on to other areas in need. I had started to imagine storehouse of them piling up and rusting away. (Kind of like the mothballs fleet in Benecia, CA )
2. I prefer that all people feel free to express their point of view, even if it is different from my own. I get uneasy when there is a 'shaming' by some posters.
3. There is an interesting recent interview of Bill Gates and he used the word 'rich' country to point out differences in options available. I respect President of Mexico for his stance for his country. I'm only sorry the border is closed. I had a timeshare reservation in Mazatlan starting next week and I was looking forward to a timeout there.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Johns Hopkins' coronavirus- tracking map now shows COVID-19 cases by city, county.




			https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2020/03/24/johnshopkins-coronavirus-tracking-map-now-shows.html
		

.


Richard


----------



## TravelTime

b2bailey said:


> I think each of the below could evolve into a thread of it's own.
> 1. Ventilator supply
> 2. Freedom to speak openly on TUG threads
> 3. Death by disease or starvation
> 
> 1. I was happy to hear Cuomo suggest that Ventilators could be forwarded on to other areas in need. I had started to imagine storehouse of them piling up and rusting away. (Kind of like the mothballs fleet in Benecia, CA )
> 2. I prefer that all people feel free to express their point of view, even if it is different from my own. I get uneasy when there is a 'shaming' by some posters.
> 3. There is an interesting recent interview of Bill Gates and he used the word 'rich' country to point out differences in options available. I respect President of Mexico for his stance for his country. I'm only sorry the border is closed. I had a timeshare reservation in Mazatlan starting next week and I was looking forward to a timeout there.



I agree with point 2. There is a lot of shaming going on right now.

On point 3, here is an interesting article on the impact of economic crisis on poorer nations.









						In World’s Most Vulnerable Countries, the Pandemic Rivals the 2008 Crisis (Published 2020)
					

As capital flees emerging markets, those countries are absorbing the most potent economic shocks of the coronavirus outbreak.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Panina

b2bailey said:


> I think each of the below could evolve into a thread of it's own.
> 2. Freedom to speak openly on TUG threads
> 
> 2. I prefer that all people feel free to express their point of view, even if it is different from my own. I get uneasy when there is a 'shaming' by some posters.





TravelTime said:


> I agree with point 2. There is a lot of shaming going on right now.



Two sayings come to mind...

When you judge another
you do not define them
you define yourself

and

People are quick to judge others faults
but never quick to point out their own


----------



## TravelTime

Panina said:


> Two sayings come to mind...
> 
> When you judge another
> you do not define them
> you define yourself
> 
> and
> 
> People are quick to judge others faults
> but never quick to point out their own



Good points. I think the shaming right now is because everyone is scared and anxious. We are in a global panic. I will give people the benefit of the doubt and assume they are judging others because they are scared themselves. It is easier to lash out at others when you are scared. Anger and judgment often underlie the emotion of fear.


----------



## Ken555

TravelTime said:


> Good points. I think the shaming right now is because everyone is scared and anxious. We are in a global panic. I will give people the benefit of the doubt and assume they are judging others because they are scared themselves. It is easier to lash out at others when you are scared. Anger and judgment often underlie the emotion of fear.



Everyone should be scared of the potential of C19. And I find the discussion re allowing people to die in exchange for saving money anathema to my core beliefs. The approach to that discussion so far is almost scientific in its cruelty and reminiscent to other historical events I would rather not name at this time.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321

This is the amount of time you are highly contagious when you have Coronavirus.










						This is the amount of time you are highly contagious when you have Coronavirus
					

A new study has located the approximate length of time that subjects with coronavirus remain highly contagious.




					www.theladders.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## TravelTime

Ken555 said:


> Everyone should be scared of the potential of C19. And I find the discussion re allowing people to die in exchange for saving money anathema to my core beliefs. The approach to that discussion so far is almost scientific in its cruelty and reminiscent to other historical events I would rather not name at this time.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I never said we should allow others to die. I have not seen a discussion on Tug stating this. I think whenever a discussion comes up regarding economics and Covid-19 comes up, people who are fearful right away jump to the conclusion that someone is saying we want mass casualties. That is simply not true. We all want this to end with as little misery and death as possible. No one wants to see any deaths. I do not recall anyone saying we should allow other people to die to save money. The argument has been that the economic fallout will create its own kind of misery and possibly death, especially among the poor.  *There is a lot of science to back this up.* Rich people and rich nations will likely survive very well.

We are in a global panic right now and everyone is fearful of something bad happening to them and their loved ones. This is understandable. Life and health always comes first in our nation. That is why so many people are willingly staying home to try to flatten the curve. I have been housebound by choice well before it was mandatory. I was thinking of closing my office before it was mandatory in my state. Many of us will sacrifice earnings to protect the lives of others. *The point is we should be able to discuss topics without being shamed or told the discussion is not scientific just because you do not like the topic.*


----------



## MULTIZ321

Think you're too young to be hospitalized by
coronavirus? This chart shows why you're wrong.










						Think you’re too young to be hospitalized by coronavirus? This chart shows why you’re wrong.
					

Of the more than 500 people known to be hospitalized in the US from the novel coronavirus, 18% were 45-54 years and 20% were aged 20-44 years.




					www.weforum.org
				





Richard


----------



## Panina

Ken555 said:


> Everyone should be scared of the potential of C19. And I find the discussion re allowing people to die in exchange for saving money anathema to my core beliefs. The approach to that discussion so far is almost scientific in its cruelty and reminiscent to other historical events I would rather not name at this time.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I don’t get it either and find it a horrible precedent to set, a Pandora’s box of abuses that has excuses. I don’t really find many here on tug saying that but do see it in watching some media.

Plus as I said before, lots of other things would occur, imo  a much higher death rate, nothing to do with coronavirus, due to a collapsed Health system.  Now if the Health system collapses does anyone really think the economy will stay good?


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

But at some point it's a question that needs to be considered.  As I posted, what if you have solid information, developed from the economic community, that the disruptions being created to the economic system will result in a 33% decline in world food supply, which would literally lead to the starvation death of about 2 billion people.  

That's a Hobson's choice, and if you want to avoid having to make that decision you *must* ask the question. Otherwise the choice might be thrust upon you unprepared and unaware. which would make the outcome that much worse.


----------



## b2bailey

Ken555 said:


> Everyone should be scared of the potential of C19. And I find the discussion re allowing people to die in exchange for saving money anathema to my core beliefs. The approach to that discussion so far is almost scientific in its cruelty and reminiscent to other historical events I would rather not name at this time.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Okay, you stepped into the ring on this one.
THIS is exactly what I am referring to. Is there a way to tell us your position without slinging a veiled or implied insult towards anyone who does not share your opinion?


----------



## Panina

TravelTime said:


> I never said we should allow others to die. I have not seen a discussion on Tug stating this. I think whenever a discussion comes up regarding economics and Covid-19 comes up, people who are fearful right away jump to the conclusion that someone is saying we want mass casualties. That is simply not true. We all want this to end with as little misery and death as possible. No one wants to see any deaths. I do not recall anyone saying we should allow other people to die to save money. The argument has been that the economic fallout will create its own kind of misery and possibly death, especially among the poor.  *There is a lot of science to back this up.* Rich people and rich nations will likely survive very well.
> 
> We are in a global panic right now and everyone is fearful of something bad happening to them and their loved ones. This is understandable. Life and health always comes first in our nation. That is why so many people are willingly staying home to try to flatten the curve. I have been housebound by choice well before it was mandatory. I was thinking of closing my office before it was mandatory in my state. Many of us will sacrifice earnings to protect the lives of others. *The point is we should be able to discuss topics without being shamed or told the discussion is not scientific just because you do not like the topic.*




I do agree to everyones right to discuss topics and to voice their opinions (as long as we follow tug rules).

I am sorry that what you have been saying has been at times twisted, just not right.

I have had my own issues that I posted on tug and where almost all responses were helpful whether they agreed with me or not, a few seemed like I was being judged because of how I responded, in a way shaming me.  I know the posters that made me feel that way probably didn’t have that intent.  I consider them my friends.  It is just so many are trying to cope and opinions are just being stated more as fact then opinion.  

We will all get through this together.


----------



## b2bailey

Personally, I enjoy hearing thoughts different from my own, as long as I'm not made to feel that others think I'm a lunatic for feeling the way I do. I've actually had times in my life when another's opinion influenced me to reconsider my own long held opinion. It was never a result of someone resorting to name-calling (of course not naming names, just inferring).


----------



## TravelTime

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> But at some point it's a question that needs to be considered.  As I posted, what if you have solid information, developed from the economic community, that the disruptions being created to the economic system will result in a 33% decline in world food supply, which would literally lead to the starvation death of about 2 billion people.
> 
> That's a Hobson's choice, and if you want to avoid having to make that decision you *must* ask the question. Otherwise the choice might be thrust upon you unprepared and unaware. which would make the outcome that much worse.



I understand that you are just raising questions. It is very likely that many people will starve or die from other means - other than the coronavirus - from an economic crisis. I do not understand why people find thinking about this to be amoral. To the contrary, I think it is very moral to consider all sides of the policy decisions being made. What helps one person could be hurting another person. China, South Korea and other nations got this under control relatively quickly and with minimal deaths, all things considered. It could have been much worse in China. It would be nice if we could save everyone but death is a fact of life. Probably the one we least want to think about. I am lucky that illness and death don't drag me into excessive worry and fear. It has never been my hot button. I am more worried about living a miserable life on earth. To me, that is worse than death. I know, because I have lived through great misery and unthinkable trauma. I would not wish it on anyone.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

IMHO...Strong pros and cons debating an issue are fine. Personal attacks on other TUG members is not acceptable.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

A long but well articulated article on why flattening the curve is important.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56


----------



## MULTIZ321

New coronavirus test with results in 45 minutes exceeds expectations, Rutgers says.










						New coronavirus test with results in 45 minutes exceeds expectations, Rutgers says
					

The test, developed by Cepheid, is being evaluated by Rutgers experts before its planned roll-out next week.




					www.nj.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## TravelTime

MULTIZ321 said:


> New coronavirus test with results in 45 minutes exceeds expectations, Rutgers says.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New coronavirus test with results in 45 minutes exceeds expectations, Rutgers says
> 
> 
> The test, developed by Cepheid, is being evaluated by Rutgers experts before its planned roll-out next week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nj.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> 
> Richard



UC Davis, where my doctor is located, emailed me today and they said they now have a test where they can get in-house rapid testing results. I was pleasantly surprised. I did not realize tests would be available so quickly and that could get fast results.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

CalGalTraveler said:


> A long but well articulated article on why flattening the curve is important.
> 
> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56


An excellent article.  That a put a new framework on a lot of things I have been thinking - and  posting - about.


----------



## dioxide45

CalGalTraveler said:


> IMHO...Strong pros and cons debating an issue are fine. Personal attacks on other TUG members is not acceptable.


Personal attacks should be reported using the Report link on the post.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

CalGalTraveler said:


> A long but well articulated article on why flattening the curve is important.
> 
> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56





T_R_Oglodyte said:


> An excellent article.  That a put a new framework on a lot of things I have been thinking - and  posting - about.


And that being said, recognize that the writer is not a virologist or medical professional.  He's really more of an aggregator.  Some of the information that the presents about mutation doesn't track fully with the assessment of virus mutation that has been presented by virologists who are specialized in the field.  Most particularly, the discussions that I have read state that the changes in genetic code that have occurred are straightforward and common, have not altered the fundamental characteristics of the virus, and virus that is found in the Europe and the US is essentially the same as what was found in Wuhan. 

A similar degree of caution might be appropriate in his analysis of the effects of control measures.  There are people who are expert in modeling the spread and movement of infectious diseases, and his presentation might not fully jibe with what they are saying.  Dan Klein at the Institute for Disease Modeling expects to have an update this week on the effectiveness of the social distancing and stay-at-home measures implemented in King and Snohomish counties in Washington. Since Washington was the first state to begin to implement controls, that will probably be the first good assessment of the effectiveness of measures that have been undertaken here.

But that's somewhat of a nit in an otherwise excellent interesting and informative review article.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus treatment other than vaccines may be available soon.











						Coronavirus treatment other than vaccines may be available soon
					

Vaccine expected to take 12 to 18 months, other therapies likely available much sooner, scientists say




					m.jpost.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## caribbeanqueen

I hope anything I have ever said or will say would never hurt another's feelings or make them feel shamed. If so it is certainly not my intention.
Having an opinion is one thing, trying to make others with a differing opinion feel shamed is unacceptable.  Everyone is entitled to their feelings.

I worked in healthcare for years and I am so lucky to have doctors to confer with and one who is very friendly with a biologist who has been researching everything to do with this virus and is very intuned with what is going on and also talking with specialists in the field regarding the virus. So many good things coming out including new medications that stop this virus in its tracks very quickly. This will save many lives!
Unfortunately there are cases of people disregarding the stay at home as much as you can rule, many of them young adults and teenagers.
We cannot control them but we can control what we do ourselves. If you stay at home and six feet apart when out grocery shopping, etc you should be fine. This virus needs to run its course and then die out. If it has nowhere to go it will end.
I do agree we need to reopen but have to be careful it is not too soon. There are many medical people surrounding our President who are giving him sound advice.  No one wants a reopening that will overload the hospitals or cause more deaths. Again, with this new medication, there will hopefully be no more deaths or as few as absolutely possible.  We cannot be shut down forever.  

Most who contract the virus recuperate at home and are fine. There are so many who have not even been tested. 
 I feel very bad for those who have so much fear and anxiety. I have a neighbor who is hysterical over it.  I have had anxiety over other issues and realize how paralyzing it can be.  It is going to be ok. So many things coming out now to help us. This will end and life will go back to normal, just hope it is sooner rather than later.  Prayers for all to stay healthy.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Vir Biotechnology reports early progress in antibody treatment for Covid-19 









						Vir Biotechnology reports early progress in antibody treatment for Covid-19
					

Vir Biotechnology, a San Francisco-based biotechnology firm, said laboratory testing showed two of its antibody drugs appeared to neutralize the coronavirus that causes Covid-19.




					www.statnews.com
				





Richard


----------



## Monykalyn

CPNY said:


> Oh wow! I fear this isn’t going anywhere for a long time! It will be spread and passed around for a long time. Scary. 17 days
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CDC says coronavirus RNA found in Princess Cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after passengers left
> 
> 
> Traces of the coronavirus were found up to 17 days after passengers disembarked the Diamond Princess cruise ship, surviving far longer on surfaces than previous research has shown, according to new data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com


Buried in the article is that experts have zero idea if the virus was still able to infect people. Detecting genetic remnants is not equal to transmission.  

In looking at the numbers aboard the ships-~7400 total passenger and crew between the 2 ships, 800 infected (in close spaces but presumably decent sanitation) and 10 total deaths. Quite a different rate, however 2/3 of Grand princess passenger declined to be tested. This is frustrating to me-should be mandatory to be released. Having a closed case study could have added to the numbers in a different way and gave a better idea of asymptomatic exposure/contagiousness.  Major screw up of government NOT having tests available. 

Remember too with the growth of cases is due to more widespread testing, and those with most severe symptoms get tested first.

Really really really need the serology testing to see how widespread this virus has been. We could already be past peak and not know it.  at least flu seems to continue to be decreasing now.  

This also looks interesting-if can get ramped up and actually works in New York: https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-source-for-potential-new-covid-19-drugs-blood-serum/

I find this site better than the Johns Hopkins one for tracking. 








						Coronavirus Update (Live): 128,728,806 Cases and 2,813,723 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## jpc763

I agree with your assessment of the article.  I really think it is a great step towards understanding.

The US (mostly at the state level) has taken a lot of steps towards the suppression approach but the key one that we are way behind on is testing and truly understanding how big the problem already is here.  Every time I go out to the store, I could be infected and not even know it.  I then am possibly infecting everyone I come in contact with.  Testing and monitoring is a gap we really need to fill to truly understand what the next step is in this fight.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Study behind updated FDA guidance shows
self-swab tests are as effective as those done
by clinicians.










						Study behind updated FDA guidance shows self-swab tests are as effective as those done by clinicians
					

Earlier this week, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that it would be updating its guidance to allow self-swab tests for COVID-19, in which a patient collects a sample from their own nose for a health professional to test. On Wednesday, UnitedHealth Group revealed the results...




					techcrunch.com
				





Richard


----------



## alwysonvac

New York hospitals battle coronavirus as hundreds of patients flood in: 'We must not break'
					

"This coronavirus pandemic is worse than working in West Africa during Ebola," said one doctor.




					www.cnbc.com
				




_*Hospitals in New York City now have more than 2,800 patients with the coronavirus, straining their existing capacity.*_

_Many of those patients are at Smith’s hospital or in other New York-Presbyterian facilities around the Big Apple.

Smith said in his letter that admissions of patients for COVID-19 to his hospital system have continued increasing by about 10% percent each day.

A nurse at Columbia University Medical Center in upper Manhattan said several hundreds of patients there alone had the coronavirus.

*About 20% of the hospital’s coronavirus patients are in intensive care units, according to Smith’s letter.*_

*And 80% of ICU patients require ventilators, which are in extremely short supply in New York state, the epicenter for the pandemic in the United States.*

_“Consult a compound-interest calculator to get a sense how quickly we are approaching infrastructure capacity limits,” Smith wrote.

*“We are scheduling very urgent cases in 3 ORs (operating rooms) each day, with 2 rooms for true emergencies.”*

*New York state has more than 30,800 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with more than 5,000 more cases reported Tuesday. New York City alone has more than 17,850 cases, although most of those people are not hospitalized.*

*Dr. Craig Spencer, who works as an emergency room doctor at Columbia University Medical Center, warned that patient “case numbers are increasing on a daily basis and soon our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.”*

“At the rate that we’re putting people on ventilators, at some hospitals one to two per hour, the simple math shows it’s only a matter of time until we run out,” Spencer said during an interview on NBC’s “TODAY Show.”_


----------



## alwysonvac

'That's when all hell broke loose': Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals | CNN
					

"We ended up getting our first positive patients -- and that's when all hell broke loose," said one New York City doctor.




					www.cnn.com
				




_*In New York City, plans are also underway to build emergency hospitals and backfill other hospitals with 1,000 beds in the Javits Center, *according to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. In addition, thousands of doctors and nurses, who are either retired or no longer see patients, have signed up as a "surge health care force," Cuomo said Wednesday._
_
There are simultaneous effort to procure ventilators for the most severe patients. According to Cuomo, New York has procured 7,000 ventilators in addition to 4,000 already on hand, and the White House said Tuesday that the state would receive two shipments of 2,000 machines this week from the national stockpile. But the state needs 30,000, Cuomo said. 
_
_*The Strategic National Stockpile said Wednesday that it held approximately 16,660 ventilators before the coronavirus response, and ventilators have been deployed over the past few days.*_


----------



## CPNY

MULTIZ321 said:


> Think you're too young to be hospitalized by
> coronavirus? This chart shows why you're wrong.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Think you’re too young to be hospitalized by coronavirus? This chart shows why you’re wrong.
> 
> 
> Of the more than 500 people known to be hospitalized in the US from the novel coronavirus, 18% were 45-54 years and 20% were aged 20-44 years.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.weforum.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Richard


You don’t even know when you’re out of the woods. Both doctors I spoke with yesterday both told me that even though my symptoms first presented with GI effects Feb 28th I’m still not out of the woods. X ray shows inflammation in and on the lungs. If breathing worsens I’m to head to ICU immediately. I’m a lot freaked out right now.


----------



## VacationForever

CPNY said:


> You don’t even know when you’re out of the woods. Both doctors I spoke with yesterday both told me that even though my symptoms first presented with GI effects Feb 28th I’m still not out of the woods. X ray shows inflammation in and on the lungs. If breathing worsens I’m to head to ICU immediately. I’m a lot freaked out right now.


Have they given you any medications, like the Malaria drug?


----------



## Panina

CPNY said:


> You don’t even know when you’re out of the woods. Both doctors I spoke with yesterday both told me that even though my symptoms first presented with GI effects Feb 28th I’m still not out of the woods. X ray shows inflammation in and on the lungs. If breathing worsens I’m to head to ICU immediately. I’m a lot freaked out right now.



Were you ever tested?
If you have bronchitis it takes awhile to get better.  My cousin had most of your symptoms and was sick on and off for two months in NYC.  She is doing good now.  She actually went to the doctor and tested negative for the flu and because she never had a fever she didn’t have the test.  There are so many different viruses and flus still active, one of the reasons doctors in offices didn’t notice the coronavirus was spreading.  By the amount of tests done  in NY versus confirmed coronavirus, we can see many other people have something else.


----------



## CPNY

Panina said:


> Were you ever tested?
> If you have bronchitis it takes awhile to get better.  My cousin had most of your symptoms and was sick on and off for two months in NYC.  She is doing good now.  She actually went to the doctor and tested negative for the flu and because she never had a fever she didn’t have the test.  There are so many different viruses and flus still active, one of the reasons doctors in offices didn’t notice the coronavirus was spreading.  By the amount of tests done  in NY versus confirmed coronavirus, we can see many other people have something else.


X-ray showed Lung walls have inflammation. I also had every covid symptoms for a week 3.5 weeks ago, literally almost every symptom. They ruled out bronchitis, neg for flu and no signs of pneumonia. It’s Been two weeks of shortness of breath and last three days of chest pain. Both doctors have said they won’t test me because I’m not a health care worker. They stopped testing “regular” people unless you’re going to be admitted to the hospital. They are stuck on the fever as a marker to get a test, the state is running behind what the doctors are saying on who should be tested. I get the feeling they don’t want a large number of positive cases. Both looked at me and said we have no doubt it’s corona so go home and isolate and was just told if breathing worsens to get to pulmonary ICU to be admitted immediately. Do not go to the ER. I filled out NY STATE online form to be called for a test, still no phone call.

everyone around here has it. getting a test two weeks ago was fairly easy if you had a cough or fever. They went strict again. The numbers spiked but deaths aren’t spiking yet thank god. Hopefully they won’t.


----------



## Panina

CPNY said:


> X-ray showed Lung walls have inflammation. I also had every covid symptoms for a week 3.5 weeks ago, literally almost every symptom. They ruled out bronchitis, neg for flu and no signs of pneumonia. It’s Been two weeks of shortness of breath and last three days of chest pain. Both doctors have said they won’t test me because I’m not a health care worker. They stopped testing “regular” people unless you’re going to be admitted to the hospital. They are stuck on the fever as a marker to get a test, the state is running behind what the doctors are saying on who should be tested. I get the feeling they don’t want a large number of positive cases. Both looked at me and said we have no doubt it’s corona so go home and isolate and was just told if breathing worsens to get to pulmonary ICU to be admitted immediately. Do not go to the ER. I filled out NY STATE online form to be called for a test, still no phone call.
> 
> everyone around here has it. getting a test two weeks ago was fairly easy if you had a cough or fever. They went strict again. The numbers spiked but deaths aren’t spiking yet thank god. Hopefully they won’t.


They are doing thousands of test in NY everyday some Positive some negative.  I can’t believe these doctors they are all healthcare workers.  If it was me I would be calling to try and follow  up on  the online form you filled out.  Being you have it for weeks and no fever hopefully if you have it it is just the lingering effects and you are on the road to recovery.  Flu tests also have many false negatives.  My thoughts and prayers will be with you to recover sooner rather then later.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Panina said:


> They are doing thousands of test in NY everyday some Positive some negative.  I can’t believe these doctors they are all healthcare workers.  If it was me I would be calling to try and follow  up on  the online form you filled out.  Being you have it for weeks and no fever hopefully if you have it it is just the lingering effects and you are on the road to recovery.  Flu tests also have many false negatives.  My thoughts and prayers will be with you to recover sooner rather then later.


I would order a home-self test that are now available to order.

Richard


----------



## Panina

CPNY said:


> X-ray showed Lung walls have inflammation. I also had every covid symptoms for a week 3.5 weeks ago, literally almost every symptom. They ruled out bronchitis, neg for flu and no signs of pneumonia. It’s Been two weeks of shortness of breath and last three days of chest pain. Both doctors have said they won’t test me because I’m not a health care worker. They stopped testing “regular” people unless you’re going to be admitted to the hospital. They are stuck on the fever as a marker to get a test, the state is running behind what the doctors are saying on who should be tested. I get the feeling they don’t want a large number of positive cases. Both looked at me and said we have no doubt it’s corona so go home and isolate and was just told if breathing worsens to get to pulmonary ICU to be admitted immediately. Do not go to the ER. I filled out NY STATE online form to be called for a test, still no phone call.
> 
> everyone around here has it. getting a test two weeks ago was fairly easy if you had a cough or fever. They went strict again. The numbers spiked but deaths aren’t spiking yet thank god. Hopefully they won’t.


Just read this, seems it is the same near me too.  Seems the Criteria getting the test has changed.  Mind boggling.








						NC woman with symptoms stunned by reaction after she called COVID-19 hotline
					

Sabrina Granados was having trouble breathing, along with a fever. Plus, she worked in the same area as someone who had already tested positive for COVID-19. With her symptoms getting worse and her doctor's office closed, she called the state's COVID-19 hotline and was shocked by what she was told.




					abc11.com


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Just a note I have received from some of my contacts who work in the northern end of Guatemala.  To add some perspective

The school we support has been shut down and gone to distance learning.  This wasn't that big of a jump, as the school has been using distance learning to bring instruction into some of the remoter villages, where it is infeasible to bus students into the academy.

Meantime, the buses which had been transporting students are now carrying food.  There is concern the government will shut that down, as they have almost all other forms of public transportation.

The shutdown of public transportation now results in people having to walk miles just to reach food markets if they don't live in one of the larger towns.  Also almost all food is sold in public markets, not in grocery stores.  On market day the markets are crowded. Here is a photo of one part of the market in Chichicastenanga on a market day in January 2011.  This is actually a relatively uncrowded part of the market. On the other side of that wall to the left the people in the aisles are packed together, and to get through you put two hands together in front of you like you are doing a breast stroke, insert them between people, and push them aside so you can get through.   Social distancing anyone?






Needless to say, there is very little critical care infrastructure in hospitals.  It's almost certain to explode in the region.  Most of the population in this region is indigenous Mayan, who have been the target of genocide programs for years.  So it's likely that the government will be completely indifferent to what happens here as the situation in Guate City or the tourism engines of Antigua and Atitlan will certainly consume whatever scant resources there are.

Meanwhile, next door in Nicaragua the government is actually encouraging people to get out and mingle and join in political rallies and demonstrations.  I have heard of one NGO observer who has suggested this may be a cynical ploy by the government to kill off the infirm and elderly, as a way of reducing health care costs.

And this is a third world respirator, out in the countryside:





In much of the third world "flattening the curve" really isn't a strategy.  It's going to be herd immunity, because there isn't any other realistic option.


----------



## chapjim

Delete


----------



## chapjim

GetawaysRus said:


> Here is a medical news article about hydroxychloroquine (also called Plaquenil) written for rheumatologists.  Understand that this is NOT a scientific article from a peer-reviewed medical journal.  Think of this as a newspaper for rheumatologists.  But it will bring you more up to date on the science:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19? Experts discuss its promise, risks amid reports of shortages
> 
> 
> Late last week, President Donald Trump sent shockwaves through the medical industry when he announced in a press conference that the FDA had approved the anti-malarial hydroxychloroquine to treat patients infected with coronavirus. The president added that doctors would be able to prescribe the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.healio.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I did read the French study a few days ago (it took a couple of clicks to get to it from a link posted here on TUG), and I agree that it is a flawed study.  There were a number of patients who were not included in the final analysis.  Essentially, the authors wrote "a bunch of our patients couldn't tolerate this drug because of side effects or, oops, they got really sick or died.  So we excluded them from the final analysis.  And if we exclude those individuals, wow, our results are really great!"  Sorry, but I don't think you get to exclude dead people or treatment failures from your analysis.
> 
> One more thing that no one seems to be talking about.  The usual dose of Plaquenil for rheumatoid arthritis or lupus is 200 mg twice daily.  In the French study, the dosage was 200 mg three times daily.  I saw no comment in the French paper about side effects of hydroxychloroquine or the hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combo other than those comments that they had to drop some people from their analysis because they could not tolerate the drug or got severely ill or died.



Years ago, then-Mayor Marion Barry said, "Outside of the killings, Washington, DC is one of the safest cities in the country." 

It's all about fudging the data.


----------



## CPNY

VacationForever said:


> Have they given you any medications, like the Malaria drug?


No, they gave me inhalers and said if it gets worse get to hospital. I’m fine now actually it’s just shortness of breath and the inflammation that’s worrisome. I will be fine I know it. So many people in this city have it. Two of my friends just got it and they have been inside just going to get food at the market once or twice and they picked it up. For me I was congested with the thickest mucus of my life, diarrhea, nausea, fever, aches, painful watery eyes almost like a pink eye, sore throat, cough, Back and joint aches. I’m relatively healthy and take vitamins and started working out again a month before my symptoms. After the GI stuff the first few days the sore throat, chills and fever only lasted a day when I started taking A LOT of vitamin C. Aches and cough lasted a few days. Then just a cough for another few days with congestion then The shortness of breath came and hasn’t left yet. When I had the chest pain I decided I needed to speak to someone. For the duration and symptoms I feel blessed I didn’t have it worse. I can’t imagine some of the stories I’m hearing/reading


Panina said:


> They are doing thousands of test in NY everyday some Positive some negative.  I can’t believe these doctors they are all healthcare workers.  If it was me I would be calling to try and follow  up on  the online form you filled out.  Being you have it for weeks and no fever hopefully if you have it it is just the lingering effects and you are on the road to recovery.  Flu tests also have many false negatives.  My thoughts and prayers will be with you to recover sooner rather then later.


They were doing much more tests last week. I know two other people who also are waiting for “call backs” to schedule testing. My sister in law is a physician at NYU and she won’t be tested even though she was directly exposed but is asymptomatic. She tried getting me tested, because I don’t have a fever currently the direction is stay home. If you have to be admitted we will then test you. I’m actually fine now. All of the symptoms were 3.5 weeks ago and lasted a week and half. The last two weeks have been dry cough and shortness of breath with chest pain coming the last few days. I feel fine like I said, just the shortness of breath and chest pain which is scarier than all the other symptoms. I asked the doctor after a month shouldn’t I be on my way out of it? They responded with its serious because we don’t know about this virus and people respond differently. I’m supposed to monitor my breathing and if it changes get to the hospital without delay. The chest X-ray showed inflammation which is alarming to them but I’m optimistic but still have concerns. Being in nyc, there are many sick with this.


----------



## Ken555

CPNY said:


> No, they gave me inhalers and said if it gets worse get to hospital. I’m fine now actually it’s just shortness of breath and the inflammation that’s worrisome. I will be fine I know it. So many people in this city have it. Two of my friends just got it and they have been inside just going to get food at the market once or twice and they picked it up. For me I was congested with the thickest mucus of my life, diarrhea, nausea, fever, aches, painful watery eyes almost like a pink eye, sore throat, cough, Back and joint aches. I’m relatively healthy and take vitamins and started working out again a month before my symptoms. After the GI stuff the first few days the sore throat, chills and fever only lasted a day when I started taking A LOT of vitamin C. Aches and cough lasted a few days. Then just a cough for another few days with congestion then The shortness of breath came and hasn’t left yet. When I had the chest pain I decided I needed to speak to someone. For the duration and symptoms I feel blessed I didn’t have it worse. I can’t imagine some of the stories I’m hearing/reading
> 
> They were doing much more tests last week. I know two other people who also are waiting for “call backs” to schedule testing. My sister in law is a physician at NYU and she won’t be tested even though she was directly exposed but is asymptomatic. She tried getting me tested, because I don’t have a fever currently the direction is stay home. If you have to be admitted we will then test you. I’m actually fine now. All of the symptoms were 3.5 weeks ago and lasted a week and half. The last two weeks have been dry cough and shortness of breath with chest pain coming the last few days. I feel fine like I said, just the shortness of breath and chest pain which is scarier than all the other symptoms. I asked the doctor after a month shouldn’t I be on my way out of it? They responded with its serious because we don’t know about this virus and people respond differently. I’m supposed to monitor my breathing and if it changes get to the hospital without delay. The chest X-ray showed inflammation which is alarming to them but I’m optimistic but still have concerns. Being in nyc, there are many sick with this.



Stay positive! Drink lots of liquids, etc. 

How’s your family?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CPNY

Ken555 said:


> Stay positive! Drink lots of liquids, etc.
> 
> How’s your family?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Thank you! I have been drinking a lot and taking a lot of vitamin C. Funny thing is I’ve been checking in on them like a hawk and I’ve been the one sick, go figure. I live alone so I’m not infecting anyone. I have also been stocked up so self isolating has been easy.


----------



## Panina

CPNY said:


> Thank you! I have been drinking a lot and taking a lot of vitamin C. Funny thing is I’ve been checking in on them like a hawk and I’ve been the one sick, go figure. I live alone so I’m not infecting anyone. I have also been stocked up so self isolating has been easy.


I feel for you.  Self isolating is hard with company.  I can imagine how hard it is by yourself being sick.


----------



## Tia

CPNY hoping you'll soon be feeling better


----------



## Panina

could this be what gets enough respirators? 









						Israeli innovation to produce hundreds of automatic respirators a day
					

As respirators have become essential to deal with the complications of the coronavirus, the Israeli Air Force, Microsoft Israel R&D, and others have found a solution to avoid future shortages




					www.jpost.com


----------



## MULTIZ321

Vexing questions about COVID-19 scientists still can't answer.










						Vexing questions about COVID-19 scientists still can't answer
					

While scientists and physicians are learning more about the novel coronavirus every day, there is still much that we don't know about the pandemic.   We compiled several of the murkier questions about the disease with the intention of updating them when more data become available.




					m.chron.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## CPNY

Panina said:


> I feel for you.  Self isolating is hard with company.  I can imagine how hard it is by yourself being sick.


It’s quite easy. I enjoy it to be honest


----------



## Panina

CPNY said:


> It’s quite easy. I enjoy it to be honest


I would prefer that right now too.


----------



## alwysonvac

Wow 









						‘They Need Us': Cuomo Urges Strength as NY Cases Near 46K, More Than 600 Dead
					

New York continues to see its infection trajectory rise unabated, with cases soaring to nearly 46,000 and deaths surpassing 600 by Friday evening, as Gov. Andrew Cuomo and NYC announced nearly 7,000 new positives by the end of the day. COVID-19 has, in two weeks, claimed more lives in New York...




					www.nbcnewyork.com
				



​_The Javits Center operation -- the 1,000-bed project developed by the state and the four 250-bed FEMA-run and staffed areas -- will be fully operational by Monday, Cuomo said Friday. As he told personnel, "*You built a hospital in a week*." The Manhattan center will house non COVID-19 patients to help take some of the non-viral loud off the shoulders of hospitals. _​​_*Cuomo is looking into four new potential sites for temporary hospitals as well: Brooklyn Cruise Terminal, the Aqueduct Racetrack facility in Queens, CUNY Staten Island, and the NY Expo Center in the Bronx. Each would have 1,000 beds.* Cuomo said he would ask Trump to authorize the plan later Friday. The governor said Friday he was suspending all non-essential construction in the state, though declined to give specifics. Presumably, work on hospital infrastructure continues._​​_There are a number of FEMA-run field hospitals going up in New Jersey as well, including one at the sprawling Meadowlands complex just across the river._​​



New York Governor Andrew Cuomo made an emotional speech to the National Guard on Friday, thanking them for converting the Jacob K. Javits Center in Manhattan into a hospital.​


----------



## caribbeanqueen

CPNY please feel better soon and keep us posted.
Thinking of you.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

@CPNY sending you good wishes for a fast recovery. On the positive note, you might be able to travel sooner than the rest of us if it proves that you have immunity...think of all the great travel deals...and no crowds!


----------



## CPNY

CalGalTraveler said:


> @CPNY sending you good wishes for a fast recovery. On the positive note, you might be able to travel sooner than the rest of us if it proves that you have immunity...think of all the great travel deals...and no crowds!


For once I would welcome the crowds! That would mean this whole thing would be behind us lol. Thank you for the wishes. Had a rough one today where shortness of breath lead to a panic attack and more shortness of breath and chest pain. I just reached out to a local hospital because they are collecting blood serum to begin antibody treatment. Hopefully I’ll qualify and learn a few things and help others. After reading and hearing stories of others with this, I had an extremely mild case it’s just lasting a month at this point since first symptom, possibly longer since other symptoms may have been so mild.


----------



## terrygee

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> That's what flattening the curve is about.  It is prolonging the epidemic to be able to provide more health care to the most severely affected, and also possibly develop and deploy countermeasures before everyone is exposed. But that absolutely comes with a cost - the cost being prolonged shutdown.  And I wonder about the ability of governments to actually be able to make all of the financial commitments that are being made.  Where is the money going to come from if the economy is shut down and taxes aren't being paid.  *Who is going to buy government debt if there isn't confidence in the ability of the government to repay that debt?*


*The Federal Reserve will buy ALL the debt as bonds using money it creates out of.. nothing.*
How cool is that?
(Look at a dollar bill.)


----------



## Maple_Leaf

CPNY said:


> I just reached out to a local hospital because they are collecting blood serum to begin antibody treatment. Hopefully I’ll qualify and learn a few things and help others.


What a great attitude! Good luck and we're all rooting for you!


----------



## CPNY

Maple_Leaf said:


> What a great attitude! Good luck and we're all rooting for you!


Thank you much!


----------



## alwysonvac

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2020-03-26/us-coronavirus-deaths-hospital-demands-likely-to-hit-peak-in-mid-april-study
		

​_....Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle used data on confirmed deaths from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, from the World Health Organization, local and national governments; state-level hospital capacity data; and observed use data from select locations to create a model that forecasts "deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the U.S. over the next four months."..._​​_...The researchers also predicted a total of 81,114 deaths over the next four months from COVID-19, exceeding 2,300 deaths daily nationwide by the week of April 12 – the same week President Donald Trump has suggested reopening the country to business. They estimate deaths will likely drop to fewer than 10 per day between May 31 and June 6, though drops in daily death rates to less than 0.3 per million by state varied from the first half of May to July 1...._​


----------



## Conan

*Why Iceland’s approach to coronavirus testing may be better than America’s*
"By screening healthy as well as sick people, say scientists, Iceland and [the country’s prized biopharma company deCODE Genetics] have assembled a far more accurate picture of COVID-19. And the results are sobering. “The virus had a much, much wider spread in the community than we would have assumed, based on the screening of high-risk people,” deCODE’s founder and CEO Kári Stefánsson told _Fortune_ by phone from his office in Reykjavík on Wednesday. As of Thursday, 737 have tested positive, or roughly 6.3% of all people tested in the country. Of those, 15 are in hospitals, two of them in intensive care. The rest—many of whom are asymptomatic—have been ordered to self-quarantine."








						Why Iceland may have the best approach to coronavirus testing
					

Random testing could be helping the country's public-health authorities contain COVID-19.




					fortune.com


----------



## dioxide45

Conan said:


> *Why Iceland’s approach to coronavirus testing may be better than America’s*
> "By screening healthy as well as sick people, say scientists, Iceland and [the country’s prized biopharma company deCODE Genetics] have assembled a far more accurate picture of COVID-19. And the results are sobering. “The virus had a much, much wider spread in the community than we would have assumed, based on the screening of high-risk people,” deCODE’s founder and CEO Kári Stefánsson told _Fortune_ by phone from his office in Reykjavík on Wednesday. As of Thursday, 737 have tested positive, or roughly 6.3% of all people tested in the country. Of those, 15 are in hospitals, two of them in intensive care. The rest—many of whom are asymptomatic—have been ordered to self-quarantine."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why Iceland may have the best approach to coronavirus testing
> 
> 
> Random testing could be helping the country's public-health authorities contain COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fortune.com


Certainly an option, the problem is that Iceland has less than 400,000 residents. The issue for the US is getting the test kits and supplies to do this type mass testing. It isn't just the kits but also the additional supplies and chemicals to perform the testing.

I agree that it would be the better way to go. Those that are sick need to quarantine, those that are not can go about their lives but with social distancing still in place. We also need antibody testing. Those that come back as immune to the virus (because they had it previously) can go about their normal lives. Testing 325,000,000 people vs 400,000 is not easy to accomplish. An additional problem will be telling all the different people apart and keeping the positive but asymptomatic people under quarantine.


----------



## Conan

True, but Iceland has tested at least 14,000 people so far in that population of 400,000.
For comparison, the State of New Jersey has tested about 28,000 people, so twice as many as Iceland. But New Jersey's population is about 9 million = 22 Icelands.








						N.J. coronavirus cases spike to 8,825 with 108 deaths. Officials announce 1,982 new positive tests, marking another big 24-hour surge.
					

Gov. Phil Murphy on Friday gave the latest update on how the virus continues to spread across the Garden State.




					www.nj.com


----------



## MULTIZ321

Have coronavirus and can't smell? Harvard scientists explain why.










						Have coronavirus and can’t smell? Harvard scientists explain why
					

Some coronavirus sufferers lose their ability to smell and taste, Harvard Medical School researchers found.Doctors around the world are reporting anecdotal Covid-19 cases in which patients have experienced an abrupt and unexplained total or partial loss of smell and taste




					www.livemint.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

The New Science Being Used to Fast-Track a Coronavirus Vaccine.









						The New Science Being Used to Fast-Track a Coronavirus Vaccine
					

As of this writing, the fast-spreading COVID-19 has already infected about half a million worldwide, and has killed over 22,000 patients.




					www.thedailybeast.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Ken555

The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.
As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.









						The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed. (Published 2020)
					

As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.




					www.nytimes.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

How they flattened the curve during the 1918 Spanish Flu
					

Social distancing isn’t a new idea—it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked.




					www.nationalgeographic.com
				






> In 2007, two studies published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sought to understand how responses influenced the disease’s spread in different cities. By comparing fatality rates, timing, and public health interventions, they found death rates were around 50 percent lower in cities that implemented preventative measures early on, versus those that did so late or not at all. The most effective efforts had simultaneously closed schools, churches, and theaters, and banned public gatherings. This allowed time for vaccine development and lessened the strain on health care systems.
> 
> The studies reached another important conclusion: That relaxing intervention measures too early could cause an otherwise stabilized city to relapse. St. Louis, for example, was so emboldened by its low death rate that the city lifted restrictions on public gatherings less than two months after the outbreak began. A rash of new cases soon followed. Of the cities that kept interventions in place, none experienced a second wave of high death rates.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## simon63

*Blood from people who recover from coronavirus could provide a treatment*


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/27/coronavirus-serum-plasma-treatment/


----------



## Conan

[redacted] Local leaders faced confusion and chaos as cases piled up.


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/03/29/coronavirus-local-officials-response/


----------



## fillde

Many unsung hero's working during this crisis. They supply the good's that keep us going.  
Workers at Amazon’s Staten Island warehouse plan to strike Monday and demand that the facility be shut down and cleaned after one staffer there tested positive for the coronavirus. 








						Amazon workers at Staten Island warehouse to stage walkout over coronavirus
					

Workers at Amazon’s Staten Island warehouse plan to strike Monday and demand that the facility be shut down and cleaned after one staffer there tested positive for the coronavirus. Some 200 employe…




					nypost.com


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller

chapjim said:


> Years ago, then-Mayor Marion Barry said, "Outside of the killings, Washington, DC is one of the safest cities .....
> It's all about fudging the data.



as a correlation - Deaths via motor vehicle accidents are likely way down worldwide this past week / month.

Maybe that his how the count in China was arrived - 
Covid 19 deaths + / - drop in vehicle deaths = total .

IMO - the data on deaths worldwide is a function of testing worldwide .
Some jurisdictions are only reporting deaths as Covid 19 related ; if the patient was a prior positive test .


----------



## WVBaker

T-Dot-Traveller said:


> as a correlation - Deaths via motor vehicle accidents are likely way down worldwide this past week / month.
> 
> Maybe that his how the count in China was arrived -
> Covid 19 deaths + / - drop in vehicle deaths = total .
> 
> IMO - the data on deaths worldwide is a function of testing worldwide .
> Some jurisdictions are only reporting deaths as Covid 19 related ; if the patient was a prior positive test .


Marion Berry had a way with words.


----------



## WVBaker

Conan said:


> [redacted] Local leaders faced confusion and chaos as cases piled up.
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/03/29/coronavirus-local-officials-response/



Given the fact that it's behind a paywall and even with the political underlying directed at Trump and his administration, we can continue this should 
we be allowed to.

What say you?


----------



## Conan

WVBaker said:


> What say you?


Sorry about the paywall. Here are a few excerpts corresponding to the headline.
*[redacted]Local leaders faced confusion and chaos as cases piled up.*
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/03/29/coronavirus-local-officials-response/


> *Texas*
> Over several weeks in January, [Kyle Coleman, an emergency management coordinator] followed the outbreak of the novel coronavirus: the first death reported in China on Jan. 11, the spread to Thailand and Japan, and then the first U.S. case in Washington state confirmed on Jan. 21.
> 
> The next day, President Trump, in an interview on CNBC, assured the public: “We have it totally under control.”
> 
> But Coleman thought it was only a matter of time before it arrived in Bexar County, home to nearly 2 million residents, including those in the city of San Antonio. So on Jan. 23, Coleman purchased another 25,000 respirator masks.
> ....
> Coleman’s decision to order more masks while they were still available would prove critical. His action was part of a patchwork mobilization by some local emergency management and public health officials to fight the virus even as Trump publicly downplayed its emerging threat.





> *Chicago*
> With seven reported infections in the United States by [January 31], Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar declared a public health emergency [that same day], and Trump announced strict travel restrictions, barring most foreign visitors coming from China. He also imposed the nation’s first mandatory quarantine in 50 years.
> ....
> Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot was caught off guard. The directive came with little guidance. Where were local governments supposed to quarantine the travelers? What would they do if someone refused to quarantine? Who was going to pay for the resources needed to quarantine people?





> *San Francisco*
> [More than three weeks later,] Trump continued to reassure the public that there was little to worry about. On Feb. 24, he tweeted, “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA.”
> 
> But [Grant Colfax, the director of the city’s public health department] and his public health staff in San Francisco were seeing something else when they studied the “curves” of the pandemic — graphs showing how many cases were reported in other regions over time.
> ....
> By the end of [a February 24] meeting , [San Francisco Mayor London Breed] was convinced. They needed to declare a state of emergency so that they could tap into state and federal funds and supplies, and redeploy city employees. The next day, San Francisco became one of the first major cities in the United States to do so, after Santa Clara and San Diego counties did earlier in the month.
> 
> It would take another 17 days, as the virus infected people in nearly every state, before Trump declared a national emergency.


----------



## Ken555

WVBaker said:


> Given the fact that it's behind a paywall and even with the political underlying directed at Trump and his administration, we can continue this should
> we be allowed to.
> 
> What say you?



You might say this about many other articles about current events. Other than raw numbers of cases, infected, how to protect, etc everything is political due to the actions (or inaction) of government officials. This is a global health emergency and government response is inherently important. I would hope we may continue to post such articles and discuss the facts, as long as we don’t have highly partisan statements or opinions. 

I read this article, and the Post is allowing their C19 articles free to all who register. If you hadn’t registered, please do so. 

This article is actually quite chilling. They interviewed many local officials about specific situations they faced since January and their reactions, including events in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida. This is likely not the article you think it is based on the title.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## clifffaith

From today's Los Angeles Times

COLUMN ONE
By Kurtis Lee reporting from cameron, ariz.

Lisa Robbins runs the generator attached to her family’s mobile home for just a few hours most mornings. With no electricity, it provides heat in this rural high-desert stretch of the Navajo Nation where overnight temperatures often linger in the low 30s this time of year.
Robbins first started hearing the whispers earlier this month — the fever, that sickness, something called coronavirus — but most people in this town of about 900 didn’t seem too worried. It was far off, neighbors told her, a world away in the big cities.
So, Robbins, who rarely has access to the internet or TV news, continued with her daily routine, which includes helping her mother, who sometimes suffers from side effects of a surgery years ago to remove a cancerous stomach tumor.
Then came the bang on her door and a stark warning from local leaders.
“They told us to stay inside … don’t come out because people could die,” Robbins said one evening last week. “It hit us so fast, no one knows what to do.”
Here on the largest Native American reservation, one that spans portions of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah, politicians and health officials are mounting a frantic effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus. The impact could be especially devastating, officials fear, in an extremely rural area larger than West Virginia, with roughly 175,000 residents and only four inpatient hospitals.
The first confirmed case of the coronavirus on the reservation came on March 17, but just days later, the Navajo Nation announced that the number had jumped to nearly 115. With limited testing, many fear the number of people infected could be far higher.
Already, two Navajo have died from COVID-19, which was believed to have been spread at an evangelical church rally March 7 in Chilchinbeto, Ariz., in the northern portion of the reservation, about 90 miles northeast of Cameron. There were local reports that one pastor was coughing as he delivered a sermon.
Congregants greeted one another with handshakes and hugs and packed together to hear pastors from around the Navajo Nation. Some pastors who live off the reservation also spoke after traveling hundreds of miles to attend.
Days later, many attendees began suffering fevers and dry coughs. Loved ones offered treatment, exposing themselves to the virus. It spread quickly.
“Navajo residents are panicking as these numbers rise,” said Jonathan Nez, president of the Navajo Nation. “We need a lot of help fast from the federal government.”
Nez issued a stay-at-home order last week, but communicating and implementing such an edict can prove difficult.
Many residents, like Robbins, live in remote areas of the reservation where you can drive for miles and see nothing but towering junipers dotting red-rock mesas. Others live in cities like Flagstaff and Phoenix, where the virus is spreading, and travel several hours to the reservation to visit family and worship. Some Navajo don’t have running water, making it complicated to carry out the best prevention method: frequent hand-washing.
And even when news of guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began to circulate, many here have remained wary, because of a long-standing distrust of the federal government and a painful history of loss from earlier epidemics brought in from the outside world.
During the 2009 outbreak of H1N1 flu, also known as swine flu, the death rate for Native Americans who contracted the disease was four times that of all other racial and ethnic groups combined, according to a study by the National Institutes of Health. Underlying health conditions contributed to the disparity.
For Robbins, 21, news of the devastating new virus has triggered a heightened sense of anxiety.
She worries for her mother and for her own weakened immune system — the result of having been born without a thyroid. And she worries too for so many other friends and loved ones here on the reservation who also have some underlying health condition.
“Then add this coronavirus,” she said. “We are scared.”
Ethel Branch, a former attorney general for the Navajo Nation who lives an hour away in Flagstaff, recently started a GoFundMe page, soliciting food donations for the most vulnerable people on the reservation.
To fight the pandemic, Branch said, it’s crucial that people can get supplies delivered directly to their homes so they don’t have to travel into towns like Cameron and cram into small general stores.
So far, hundreds of families have received food baskets, including flour, beans, rice and Tylenol, Branch said, adding that the coronavirus could be especially dangerous for low-income families with health problems, such as diabetes, a side effect from uranium mining in the area.
“We have to all do our part,” Branch said, “because who knows if the government support will do anything.”
The newly adopted $2-trillion stimulus package includes $8 billion for Native American tribes. Roughly $1 billion is allocated for the Indian Health Service, a notoriously underfunded federal agency that oversees healthcare on reservations. Many here are skeptical about whether any of the money will arrive, or how much it would help. Nez expressed concern that the federal government is forcing individual tribes to apply for their share of the $8 billion.
On the Navajo Nation, it’s not uncommon for elders to talk about the introduction of diseases into Native American communities over the generations — a vow to never forget the privations and suffering that indigenous communities have had to endure.
As early as the 16th century, white European settlers brought smallpox and measles into Native communities, and in the 1860s the U.S. government drove Navajo from the buttes here in the Southwest and marched them to Fort Sumner, N.M., where they were imprisoned, as part of a forced journey known as the Long Walk. In that era, thousands of Native people died of diseases like measles.
During the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918, nearly 2,000 Navajo died, and in April 1993, the hantavirus outbreak devastated the Four Corners area. Carried in deer mice droppings, the virus was at times known as the Navajo flu.
There were 24 reported cases in the area — 14 of which were Navajo. In total, 12 people died.
Jonah Yellowman, 67, a spiritual leader from the northern area of the Navajo Nation, remembers the hantavirus vividly. Yellowman said he is now boiling sage and juniper and drinking it as a tea, to help combat respiratory ailments.
“Sage specifically helps the lungs,” Yellowman said on a recent afternoon. “It’s strong, it can offer healing.”
Yellowman lives in a single-level home with no running water and relies on 5-gallon jugs he fills at a nearby well. In addition to washing his hands, he must use the water for cooking and bathing.
“You have to ration it out, especially now,” Yellowman said, noting he tries to wash his hands more often than usual.
These days he urges his family and friends to stay home and monitor the situation as closely as possible. Talk by phone. Crack car windows and speak from a distance. Stay updated, he tells them.
Like Yellowman, Shanna Yazzie, a Cameron resident, has no running water or electricity. A wood-burning stove heats the living room of the home she shares with her mother and two children.
At least once a month, Yazzie visits family and takes her children to orthodontist appointments in Phoenix, about 200 miles south, and stocks up on supplies at Costco. In early March, she made the trek and was stunned by the crowds at the store.
“That’s when I really realized something was up and this was bad,” Yazzie said. Initially, she’d heard some people on the reservation joking that Navajo natives couldn’t get the coronavirus.
“Quickly we’re realizing that’s not the case,” she said.
Yazzie bought two cases of water — the maximum allowed per person — and drove home from Phoenix. The entire time, she asked her 10-year-old son to check the news on his phone as best he could and peppered him with questions: Did he want to stay home from school tomorrow? Soon, schools were shuttered, so the decision was made for them.
Then she had a heart-to-heart conversation with her 79-year-old mother, who wasn’t sure what to make of the reports on the news. Her mother, Yazzie said, still wanted to go to the local Burger King for coffee, where she and her friends gather many weekdays.
Now, the family stays inside. Every few days Yazzie runs to the local convenience store for snacks. They play board games and read books.
“It’s just not worth it to leave and get sick,” she said, “but being out here, supplies are limited.”
On a recent morning, outside a desolate restaurant off Highway 89, a lone car idled in the lot. The owner had run inside to grab a to-go breakfast. Normally, this highway buzzes with tourists headed to the Grand Canyon, but on this day it was silent save for a few barking dogs at a nearby trailer.
Eventually, Billy Huskie pulled up in his pickup truck and headed inside for a breakfast sandwich. Huskie, who chops cedar and juniper for a living, said the pandemic had a put a damper on business, and he expressed frustration with younger people — both on and off the reservation. They’re making it worse by not staying home and being isolated with family, he said.
“They’re being selfish,” Huskie said. “And this is hurting businesses and livelihoods.”
A gust of wind tore through the parking lot, and the man who was driving the idling car flung open the restaurant door and turned to Huskie.
“I’m out of here, man,” he said.
“Be safe, be careful,” Huskie responded, offering a closed-fist salute.
“I don’t go around anybody,” the man said, flashing a grin. “I’ll be good to go. I have nature.”


----------



## MULTIZ321

'PANDEMIC' SCIENTIST SAYS HIS TEAM HAS DISCOVERED POTENTIAL CURE FOR COVID-19.










						'Pandemic' scientist says his team has discovered potential cure for COVID-19
					

Dr. Jacob Glanville's team took antibodies used to neutralize SARS and used technology in their lab to adapt them to recognize COVID-19.




					www.wzzm13.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## pedro47

We just need Hope  & Pray now in our great country . IMHO


----------



## MULTIZ321

The coronavirus outbreak won't peak in every state
at once.










						The coronavirus outbreak won't peak in every state at once
					

That means some states have extra time to prepare.




					www.axios.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

COVID-19 mapped: Azure-powered tool IDs the most vulnerable populations.










						COVID-19 mapped: Azure-powered tool IDs the most vulnerable populations
					

A data-derived tool for healthcare providers and community leaders to identify populations likely to experience severe outcomes once infected.




					www.zdnet.com
				





Richard


----------



## Ken555

This article starts on a positive note, then reality sets in. Essentially it says that while it looks okay since we have utterly failed at early and comprehensive testing (and which is still a major problem), none of the models can be relied upon.


Social distancing may have helped California slow the virus and avoid New York’s fate









						Social distancing may have helped California slow the virus and avoid New York’s fate — Los Angeles Times
					

The coronavirus continues to spread rapidly in the Bay Area and Seattle, but so far at a rate slower than in the country’s other hot spots such as New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Louisiana.




					apple.news
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

“Sailors Do Not Need to Die”: A Navy Captain Begs for Help as Coronavirus Spreads on His Ship









						A Navy captain begs for help as coronavirus spreads on his ship
					

COVID-19 is overwhelming a US aircraft carrier.




					www.motherjones.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## MULTIZ321

An antibody "cure" for COVID-19? Scientist thinks his team may have one.










						An antibody "cure" for COVID-19? Scientist thinks his team may have one
					

Patience.




					hotair.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

A New Coronavirus Test Can Accurately Diagnose People Without Symptoms.










						A New Coronavirus Test Can Accurately Diagnose People Without Symptoms
					

One of the most talked about issues to come out of the coronavirus pandemic has been testing. Why is it so hard to get a COVID-19 test? How accurate are they, really? Why does it take so long to get results?




					www.refinery29.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## caribbeanqueen

I would love to be tested for antibodies and give my plasma to someone who needs it. They need to get this serology test out to the public ASAP so we can save more lives.


----------



## Ken555

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus testing: How some countries got
ahead of the rest.










						Coronavirus testing: how some countries got ahead of the rest
					

Germany was quick to see the threat while South Korea took an aggressive approach




					www.theguardian.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Panina

Ken555 said:


> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


An allergy sufferer for years, I get sore throat.  Allergies to pet dander, molds, dust and pollen can cause a sore throat. The problem may be complicated by postnasal drip, which can irritate and inflame the throat.


----------



## Blues

Panina said:


> An allergy sufferer for years, I get sore throat.  Allergies to pet dander, molds, dust and pollen can cause a sore throat. The problem may be complicated by postnasal drip, which can irritate and inflame the throat.



Thanks for saying that, Panina.  As a lifetime allergy sufferer, I often get a sore throat.  I was going to reply exactly as you did.


----------



## MULTIZ321

DOCTORS EXPLAIN WHY COVID-19 ANTIBODY TESTS COULD BE A TURNING POINT IN 
COMBATTING THE VIRUS 










						Doctors Explain Everything You Need To Know About COVID-19 Antibody Tests
					

Antibody testing has a lot of potential...but there are some issues, too.




					www.wellandgood.com
				





Richard


----------



## fillde

Checked my horoscope today:


----------



## dioxide45

fillde said:


> Checked my horoscope today:
> View attachment 18562
> View attachment 18562


Exactly. Any horoscope that indicates you will find that special someone today is lying.


----------



## JanT

Panina,

Another thank you for posting this.  I have chronic allergies (year 'round), take Xyzal, and use Nasonex every day.  My throat is sore on most days.  In addition, I'll argue with the person who put that chart together because quite frequently I have body aches caused by my allergies when they are really bad.



Panina said:


> An allergy sufferer for years, I get sore throat.  Allergies to pet dander, molds, dust and pollen can cause a sore throat. The problem may be complicated by postnasal drip, which can irritate and inflame the throat.


----------



## MULTIZ321

How the Novel Coronavirus Originated in Bats, and Why That's Actually Pretty Common.










						How the Novel Coronavirus Likely Originated in Bats, and Why That’s Actually Pretty Common
					

This isn’t the first time this has happened.




					www.prevention.com
				




Richard


----------



## WVBaker

MULTIZ321 said:


> How the Novel Coronavirus Originated in Bats, and Why That's Actually Pretty Common.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How the Novel Coronavirus Likely Originated in Bats, and Why That’s Actually Pretty Common
> 
> 
> This isn’t the first time this has happened.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.prevention.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Richard



Bats are not to blame for coronavirus. Humans are.








						Bats are not to blame for coronavirus. Humans are
					

Reclusive, nocturnal, numerous -- bats are a possible source of the coronavirus. Yet some scientists concur they are not to blame for the transfer of the disease that's changing daily life -- humans are.




					www.cnn.com
				




So much for Andrew Cunningham, a Professor of Wildlife Epidemiology at the Zoological Society of London and his, "zoonotic spillover" or transfer theory.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless*.
*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.










						Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless*
					

*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.




					fivethirtyeight.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Chinese medical experts share knowledge of
effective drugs against COVID-19 with U.S. Doctors.




			http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/05/c_138949456.htm
		

.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus 'Achilles' heel' may have been found, experts say.










						Coronavirus 'Achilles' heel' may have been found, experts say
					

The coronavirus pandemic has ravaged the majority of the world, upending nearly every facet of life, as researchers race to find a cure. However, a newly published study suggests researchers may have found what's been described as its "Achilles heel."




					www.foxnews.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Antibodies in the blood of  COVID-19 survivors know how to beat coronavirus and researchers are already testing new treatments that harness them.










						Antibodies in the blood of COVID-19 survivors know how to beat coronavirus – and researchers are already testing new treatments that harness them
					

Before a vaccine is available to teach your immune system to ward off the coronavirus, maybe you can directly use molecules that have already fought it in other people.




					theconversation.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of COVID-19 but being left out of the official count
					

The fast-spreading novel coronavirus is almost certainly killing Americans who are not included in the nation's growing death toll, according to public health experts and government officials involved in the tally. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts...




					www.seattletimes.com


----------



## Panina

Makes me think what if it gets in our food supply, chickens, cows, etc?

A tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York City has tested positive for the coronavirus, in what may be the first confirmed case of an animal being infected with the virus in the U.S.

https://www.foxnews.com/science/tiger-bronx-zoo-coronavirus


----------



## Ken555

Social distancing works. Watch this short video to see the results so far.







Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> Social distancing works. Watch this short video to see the results so far.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Interesting but probably meaningless if he's just using published numbers of cases.  Because we did not do and are not doing mass testing testing we do not know what the true number of cases was in the past or what it is now.  

There is another, simpler explanation for his decline in the growth rate.  Initially there were a lot of people who had COVID-19 and weren't identified because we weren't looking for it.  When we started looking for it, of course we looked first at people who looked like they might have it.  That means that you are going to have a high hit rate.  And when you've only been looking for it sporadically, and they you start looking for it diligently, the percentage increases in cases is naturally going to be quite high. To the extent you start playing catch-up, your rate of increase in cases will naturally go down, even if there has been no change in the infection rate.  

Now what he is saying might very well be true, but I don't think you can draw that inference from the data he appears to be working.  Garbage data in means garbage results out.  And until we start to implement mass testing we simply cannot measure the effectiveness of social distances.  

The people who are doing epidemic modeling needs to address these same factors, and if you look at the error bands on their estimates, you can see the ranges of uncertainty.


----------



## Ken555

Stanford study for all to participate.









						Stanford Medicine National Daily Health Survey for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
					

Your involvement in the Daily Health Survey will hopefully help save lives. As a country, we are all in this together!




					med.stanford.edu
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Interesting but probably meaningless if he's just using published numbers of cases. Because we did not do and are not doing mass testing testing we do not know what the true number of cases was in the past or what it is now.
> 
> There is another, simpler explanation for his decline in the growth rate. Initially there were a lot of people who had COVID-19 and weren't identified because we weren't looking for it. When we started looking for it, of course we looked first at people who looked like they might have it. That means that you are going to have a high hit rate. And when you've only been looking for it sporadically, and they you start looking for it diligently, the percentage increases in cases is naturally going to be quite high. To the extent you start playing catch-up, your rate of increase in cases will naturally go down, even if there has been no change in the infection rate.
> 
> Now what he is saying might very well be true, but I don't think you can draw that inference from the data he appears to be working. Garbage data in means garbage results out. And until we start to implement mass testing we simply cannot measure the effectiveness of social distances.
> 
> The people who are doing epidemic modeling needs to address these same factors, and if you look at the error bands on their estimates, you can see the ranges of uncertainty.



This is the author daily update: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19-update-april-4-data-alain-chesnais/

You should be able to find more of his posts there, which may answer some of your questions.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> This is the author daily update: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19-update-april-4-data-alain-chesnais/
> 
> You should be able to find more of his posts there, which may answer some of your questions.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Doesn't change my thinking. He's still using garbage data.

A couple of weeks ago I started a thread related to effects of social distancing, in which I posited that it appeared that social distancing was having a positive impact in the state of Washington.  The data looked promising, some people questioned the data. 

As it turned, I was completely mistaken and what I had noted was a data artifact.  Plus, as others pointed out, the data I was using was suspect at its root. And all of the information I have picked up since that time simply reinforces to me the folly of what I was doing when I posted. 

Posting bluntly, this strikes me as a more sophisticated redux of what I had jumped on before.  But the principleremains.  He is working with garbage data, and there is no indication of how he might be refining the data to tease something useful out of the data.  He's also working in a field that appears to me to be, at the best, on the periphery of his field of expertise.  

Now that's not fatal; I've been working data set often enough to know that often someone outside of the field can provide a new an alternate way of looking at information that enhances the understanding. But I don't see that here.  He's simply rehashing numbers that have been used by individuals more conversant in the field than he is, but he isn't incorporating their uncertainty parameters.


----------



## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Doesn't change my thinking. He's still using garbage data.
> 
> A couple of weeks ago I started a thread related to effects of social distancing, in which I posited that it appeared that social distancing was having a positive impact in the state of Washington. The data looked promising, some people questioned the data.
> 
> As it turned, I was completely mistaken and what I had noted was a data artifact. Plus, as others pointed out, the data I was using was suspect at its root. And all of the information I have picked up since that time simply reinforces to me the folly of what I was looking.
> 
> Posting bluntly, this strikes me as a more sophisticated redux of what I had jumped on before. But the principal remains. He is working with garbage data, and there is no indication of how he might be refining the data to tease something useful out of the data. He's also working in a field that appears to me to be, at the best, on the periphery of his field of expertise. Now that's not fatal; I've been working data set often enough to know that often someone outside of the field can provide a new an alternate way of looking at information that enhances the understanding.
> 
> But I don't see that here. He's simply rehashing numbers that have been used by individuals more conversant in the field than he is, but he isn't incorporating their uncertainty parameters.



I have posted multiple times that it is all about the data. Whether or not it is garbage is something else. Good night.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555




----------



## MULTIZ321

A second potential COVID-19 vaccine, backed by Bill and Melinda Gates, is entering human testing.










						A second potential COVID-19 vaccine, backed by Bill and Melinda Gates, is entering human testing
					

A new COVID-19 vaccine candidate is entering Phase 1 clinical human testing today, after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accepted an application from Inovio Pharmaceuticals under the regulator’s Investigational New Drug program. Inovio plans to inject its first volunteer test subject...




					techcrunch.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Nurses must be protected from abuse during coronavirus pandemic: WHO, nursing groups 










						Nurses must be protected from abuse during coronavirus pandemic: WHO, nursing groups
					

Authorities must protect nurses and other health workers from harassment and attacks compounding the already heavy toll they are paying in the pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) and top nursing officials said on Tuesday.




					www.reuters.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321

Antiparasitic drug lvermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours 









						Antiparasitic drug Ivermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours
					

Around the world, scientists race to develop a vaccine or treatment against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Now, a team of researchers has found that a drug already available around the world can kill the coronavirus...




					www.news-medical.net
				




Richard


----------



## RX8

Every time this January thread pops up that states “infected dozens“ it brings back memories of something that seems so long ago yet is only a few months. I am amazed, shocked and scared as to the speed and global impact that this little virus has accomplished.


----------



## Panina

RX8 said:


> Every time this January thread pops up that states “infected dozens“ it brings back memories of something that seems so long ago yet is only a few months. I am amazed, shocked and scared as to the speed and global impact that this little virus has accomplished.


I am amazed too.  It is mind blowing.  It has an exponential growth factor that some have estimated that one person gives it to  2 1/2 people. With exponential growth numbers explode.

For simplicity to show exponential growth factor, let’s take a penny, .01 and  double the growth each day.

day 1 = .01
day 2 = .02,
day 3 = .04
day 5 = .08
day 6 = .16
day 7 = .32
day 8 = .64
day 9 = 1.28
day 10 = 2.56
day 11 = 5.12
day 12 = 10.24
day 13 = 20.48
day 14 = 40.96
day 15 = 81.92
day 16 = 163.84
day 17 = 327.68
day 18 = 655.36
day 19 = 1310.72
day 20 = 2621.44
day 21 = 5242.88
day 22 = 10485.76
day 23 = 20971.52
day 24 = 41943.04
day 25 = 83,886.08
day 26 = 167772.16
day 27 = 335544.32
day 28 = 671088.64
day 29 = 1342177.28
day 30 = 2684354.56
day 29 = 5368709.12
day 30 = 10737418.20

Article explaining it further.








						Coronavirus is spreading so quickly that our brains can't keep up. Experts explain why.
					

Exponential growth has a technical meaning that will help you understand why the coronavirus is spreading so quickly and how its course may be altered



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## Ken555

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities





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						Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities - Gothamist
					

Gothamist is a non-profit local newsroom, powered by WNYC.




					gothamist.com
				





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## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities
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> Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities - Gothamist
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An article in the Seattle Times recently made the same point.  We're only counting cases deaths that occur while someone is directly under care.  There certainly are many more cases and deaths that never get counted.  

That also gets compounded by the desires of many government officials to under-report.  The numbers from China, for example, are way out of sync with what we are seeing in North America and Europe, where we know that we are undercounting.  The China numbers might be off by order of magnitude, and the number of funeral urns that they have acquired suggest a vastly higher death toll than what they have reported.


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## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> An article in the Seattle Times recently made the same point. We're only counting cases deaths that occur while someone is directly under care. There certainly are many more cases and deaths that never get counted.
> 
> That also gets compounded by the desires of many government officials to under-report. The numbers from China, for example, are way out of sync with what we are seeing in North America and Europe, where we know that we are undercounting. The China numbers might be off by order of magnitude, and the number of funeral urns that they have acquired suggest a vastly higher death toll than what they have reported.



Yes, this was predicted a month or more ago. It’s now coming true.


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## Ken555

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/new-zealand-isnt-just-flattening-the-curve-its-squashing-it/
		




> It took only 10 days for signs that the approach here — “elimination” rather than the “containment” goal of the United States and other Western countries — is working.




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## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/new-zealand-isnt-just-flattening-the-curve-its-squashing-it/


New Zealand isn't alone.  Isolated island regions, where effective controls can be placed on visitors, are doing the same.  It's likely that Hawaii may have similar success.  

The problem those countries are going to face is that they are will have a vulnerable population, and sooner or later the virus will arrive.  If no vaccine has been available they will then have another outbreak to deal with.


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## Ken555

Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word — Los Angeles Times
					

As hospitals battle the coronavirus, they're baffled as the Trump administration seizes hard-to-stock medical supplies.




					apple.news
				




Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word
As hospitals battle the coronavirus, they’re baffled as the Trump administration seizes hard-to-stock medical supplies.


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## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> New Zealand isn't alone. Isolated island regions, where effective controls can be placed on visitors, are doing the same. It's likely that Hawaii may have similar success.
> 
> The problem those countries are going to face is that they are will have a vulnerable population, and sooner or later the virus will arrive. If no vaccine has been available they will then have another outbreak to deal with.



I’d pay well to be in New Zealand right now, and I’m sure lots of others would, too. Sure, nothing is perfect but wouldn’t you rather be in a country that has locked down sufficiently to eradicate it within your borders? This also provides them time to relax restrictions while scientists create a vaccine etc. I’m really not sure how anyone would interpret NZ’s plan to be bad.


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## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> I’d pay well to be in New Zealand right now, and I’m sure lots of others would, too. Sure, nothing is perfect but wouldn’t you rather be in a country that has locked down sufficiently to eradicate it within your borders? This also provides them time to relax restrictions while scientists create a vaccine etc. I’m really not sure how anyone would interpret NZ’s plan to be bad.
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> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I didn't mean to imply their plans were bad.  I'm just pointing out the price of success now continued vigilance.  If they drop their guard it will come roaring back in their community. 

Development of a vaccine is critical.  That's how we were able to beat smallpox.  And when dropped our guard with smallpox, it mounted a comeback.


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## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> I didn't mean to imply their plans were bad. I'm just pointing out the price of success now continued vigilance. If they drop their guard it will come roaring back in their community.
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> Development of a vaccine is critical. That's how we were able to beat smallpox. And when dropped our guard with smallpox, it mounted a comeback.



Yes. It’s good to repeat that message over and over, because there will be people who insist they return to the way it was as soon as this first wave is over. Trust the scientists and no one else. No one else.


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## Conan

*Coronavirus State-By-State Projections: When Will Each State Peak?*
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...f-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak#allstates

Someone please explain to me how, absent an effective vaccine, cases can end at a given date, as they supposedly already ended in China.


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## T_R_Oglodyte

Conan said:


> *Coronavirus State-By-State Projections: When Will Each State Peak?*
> https://www.npr.org/sections/health...f-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak#allstates
> 
> Someone please explain to me how, absent an effective vaccine, cases can end at a given date, as they supposedly already ended in China.


The numbers come from the IHME web site. They have an explanation of background and assumptions.  

The spread of a virus is related to how easily it's transmitted.  As immunity is built in a population, opportunities for the virus to transmit, and the ease of transmission goes down.  For example, let's say that inherently one person will typically transmit the virus to five other people.  So at the the start you have explosive growth.  But as resistance builds in the population, the virus can't find targets and so the ease of transmission goes down.  In my example, when 80% of the population becomes resistant, the effective transmission has now gone from five to one - that's because of the five who could have received the virus initially, four of them are now immune.

When the virus transmission factor drops below one, the epidemic subsides, because people are now gaining immunity faster than the virus is being transmitted.  That doesn't mean that everyone has resistance or that the virus has ceased to exist.  It just means that the epidemic is waning.  We see this often with flu.  A new type of flu develops and is widely transmitted.  Existing vaccines have little or no effectiveness.  The flu rages for a season, then dies out, even though there are still many people who have not become sick, because it's transmission rate declines (due to acquired immunity in the population, viral mutation, or changing weather conditions that inhibit virus spread).

However, the IHME estimates are based on continued implementation of measures such as social distancing.  And those measures are factored into the estimate of the transmission factor.  So as soon as those restrictions are lifted, the transmission factor will go up, and there will be an increase in cases until enough population gains resistance to bring the transmission factor back below one again.  

When a particular area lifts it's restrictions, the curves will change, but that is not considered in the IMHE predictions.


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## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> The numbers come from the IHME web site. They have an explanation of background and assumptions.
> 
> The spread of a virus is related to how easily it's transmitted. As immunity is built in a population, opportunities for the virus to transmit, and the ease of transmission goes down. For example, let's say that inherently one person will typically transmit the virus to five other people. So at the the start you have explosive growth. But as resistance builds in the population, the virus can't find targets and so the ease of transmission goes down. In my example, when 80% of the population becomes resistant, the effective transmission has now gone from five to one - that's because of the five who could have received the virus initially, four of them are now immune.
> 
> When the virus transmission factor drops below one, the epidemic subsides, because people are now gaining immunity faster than the virus is being transmitted. That doesn't mean that everyone has resistance or that the virus has ceased to exist. It just means that the epidemic is waning. We see this often with flu. A new type of flu develops and is widely transmitted. Existing vaccines have little or no effectiveness. The flu rages for a season, then dies out, even though there are still many people who have not become sick, because it's transmission rate declines (due to acquired immunity in the population, viral mutation, or changing weather conditions that inhibit virus spread).
> 
> However, the IHME estimates are based on continued implementation of measures such as social distancing. And those measures are factored into the estimate of the transmission factor. So as soon as those restrictions are lifted, the transmission factor will go up, and there will be an increase in cases until enough population gains resistance to bring the transmission factor back below one again.
> 
> When a particular area lifts it's restrictions, the curves will change, but that is not considered in the IMHE predictions.



A key missing variable is the length of immunity, if it exists (though the experts believe so), which we just don’t know yet. Herd immunity will be how we get out of this tunnel fastest, and we will still desperately need a vaccine or other more permanent treatment.


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## WVBaker

Ken555 said:


> Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word — Los Angeles Times
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> As hospitals battle the coronavirus, they're baffled as the Trump administration seizes hard-to-stock medical supplies.
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> Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word
> As hospitals battle the coronavirus, they’re baffled as the Trump administration seizes hard-to-stock medical supplies.
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> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



It's like the medical profession determining who should be treated first. High-transmission areas were prioritized that are also preparing for the coronavirus, and allocations were based on population, not on quantities requested.


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## Conan

*This breathing technique may help coronavirus patients feel better*
A British doctor — identified by The Times as Dr. Sarfaraz Munshi from Queen’s Hospital in London — demonstrated the exercise in a YouTube video that's received almost 2 million views since Friday.








						This breathing technique may help coronavirus patients feel better
					

The idea is to get the lower part of a person’s lungs to expand so that any mucus that’s collecting there can be dislodged and coughed out.




					www.today.com
				




Looks legitimate and is probably worth practicing even if as far as you know you're uninfected.

Also it's consistent with Chris Cuomo's advice and experience.


			Chris Cuomo: Here's the secret to kicking this virus


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## JudyH

MULTIZ321 said:


> Antiparasitic drug lvermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours
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> Antiparasitic drug Ivermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours
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> Around the world, scientists race to develop a vaccine or treatment against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Now, a team of researchers has found that a drug already available around the world can kill the coronavirus...
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We have always used this on our horses


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## MULTIZ321

For survivors of severe COVID-19, beating the virus is just the beginning.










						For survivors of severe COVID-19, beating the virus is just the beginning
					

Illness and disability loom after weeks on a ventilator




					www.sciencemag.org
				



.


Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Why Does Covid-19 Make Some People So Sick? Ask Their DNA.










						Why Does Covid-19 Make Some People So Sick? Ask Their DNA
					

Consumer genomics company 23andMe wants to mine its database of millions of customers for clues to why the virus hits some people harder than others.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Why Covid-19 is so effective in attacking the body.










						Why Covid-19 is so effective in attacking the body
					

COVID-19 starts out in the lungs like the common cold coronaviruses, but then causes havoc with the immune system that can lead to long-term lung damage or death.




					www.inverse.com
				



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Richard


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## Monykalyn

MULTIZ321 said:


> Antiparasitic drug lvermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours
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> Antiparasitic drug Ivermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours
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> Around the world, scientists race to develop a vaccine or treatment against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Now, a team of researchers has found that a drug already available around the world can kill the coronavirus...
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JudyH said:


> We have always used this on our horses


 I was gonna say-anyone with livestock probably has this on hand. I have it for my backyard chickens if they need to be wormed (if wazine doesn't work)


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## pedro47

I hope this Antiparasitic drug work or any treatment drug works to stop and kill this virus. I want to get out of the house and enjoy living again; without  wearing a mask.

That city in China is open after 11 weeks.


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## MULTIZ321

Israeli COVID-19 treatment shows 100% survival rate - preliminary data.










						Israeli COVID-19 treatment shows 100% survival rate - preliminary data
					

Not only have all the patients survived, according to Pluristem, but four of them showed improvement in respiratory parameters.




					m.jpost.com
				



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Richard


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## Ken555

WVBaker said:


> It's like the medical profession determining who should be treated first. High-transmission areas were prioritized that are also preparing for the coronavirus, and allocations were based on population, not on quantities requested.



You’re making an unfounded assumption. What is most annoying to the front line who see these life saving protective gear taken is the lack of communication from those doing so. If if is, as you assume and I hope, for reallocation to more critical areas, then there is no excuse for not making that clear to all involved. Perhaps they did so and it didn’t make the article, so I’m definitely hoping that’s the case.


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## Ken555

Interesting case study.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/funeral-birthday-party-hugs-covid-19/
		



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## MULTIZ321

There are THREE distinct strains of the novel coronavirus in the world and the virus 'may be mutating to thrive in different immune systems'










						There are THREE separate types of coronavirus
					

Methods used to trace the prehistoric migration of ancient humans was adapted by researchers at the University of Cambridge to track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

In the Race for Coronavirus Drugs, This Scientist Urges a Slower Pace.










						In the Race for Coronavirus Drugs, This Scientist Urges a Slower Pace
					

Taking an experimental drug can be worse than taking nothing at all, warns Dr. Andre Kalil: “You are treating emotion.”




					www.nytimes.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

Test for antibodies against novel coronavirus
developed at Stanford Medicine.










						Test for antibodies against novel coronavirus developed at Stanford Medicine
					

The new test screens for antibodies to the virus in plasma, the liquid in blood, to provide information about a person’s immune response to an infection.




					med.stanford.edu
				



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Richard


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## b2bailey

MULTIZ321 said:


> For survivors of severe COVID-19, beating the virus is just the beginning.
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> For survivors of severe COVID-19, beating the virus is just the beginning
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Wow. Reading this brings to mind the expression about winning the battle and losing the war.


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## GetawaysRus

A remdesivir study was published yesterday.  Remdesivir is an experimental drug (not FDA approved) from Gilead that was initially developed for possible treatment of Ebola.  This is a technical article intended for physicians.  The article appeared in the New England Journal of Medicine, which is one of the premier medical journals.



			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016
		


I'll only make a few comments.
1. By now we are all used to seeing Dr. Fauci on TV talking about the value of controlled studies.  This is *NOT* a controlled study.  It is simply a case series and, because it is not controlled, cannot be considered firm proof of drug efficacy.  For it to have been a controlled study, you would have needed a control group of similar patients (matched so far as possible according to things such as age, sex, pre-existing health, severity of disease, etc.) who did not receive the drug.  Then, at the end of the study period, you would compare outcomes in the treated group versus the untreated group.  But with people dying, that would have been very cold-blooded and difficult to justify ethically.
2. However, the authors are able to compare their results to other uncontrolled case series that have been published and, in general, the outcomes with remdesivir appear superior.  This is not a wonder drug, however.  There is still a 13% mortality rate, but this is a lower mortality rate than the studies they compare to.  The authors also try to make the case that the patients in this series were more seriously ill than some of the other case series they compare to.  If that is true, that makes the lower mortality rate more impressive.
3. The cohort of treated patients only included those with disease severe enough to meet specific criteria.  So this study says nothing about treatment for milder forms of Covid-19.  That is in contrast to hydroxychloroquine, which has been so widely discussed in the media.  There is talk about whether hydroxychloroquine might be useful for prophylaxis (to prevent infection) or for milder cases of disease.  Remdesivir is administered intravenously, so it is very unlikely to be an outpatient treatment.  Hydroxychloroquine is a  pill.
4. I find it very interesting that patients had to agree not to use other investigational drugs for Covid-19.  Let's use HIV as an analogy, which is another viral infection, and I'll let Google tell you about HIV treatment:
_Most people who are getting treated for HIV take 3 or more *drugs*. This is called combination therapy or "the cocktail." It also has a longer name: *antiretroviral* therapy (ART) or *highly active antiretroviral therapy* (HAART). Combination therapy is the most effective treatment for HIV.  Apr 9, 2019_
So this makes me wonder if doctors will move toward combination therapy for treatment of severe cases of Covid-19.  This article doesn't speak to that.


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## MULTIZ321

Coronavirus vaccine may Be ready By September, says Oxford scientist I The Times of Israel.










						Coronavirus vaccine may be ready by September, says Oxford scientist
					

British vaccinologist says trials set to begin in two weeks




					www.timesofisrael.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321

The Real Reason Veterinarians Gave a Tiger a Covid-19 Test.










						The Real Reason Veterinarians Gave a Tiger a Covid-19 Test
					

It’s hard for humans in New York City to get a test for the coronavirus. So when a Bronx Zoo tiger tested positive for Covid-19, it invited some questions.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


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## Rolltydr

Boris Johnson released from hospital, thanks immigrants for saving his life!

“Johnson thanked the NHS doctors and nurses who cared for him. He cited the lifesaving care of “Jenny from New Zealand” and “Luis from Portugal,” who he said “stood by my bedside for 48 hours when things could have gone either way” and monitored his oxygen levels.
“I have seen the personal courage not just of the doctors and nurses but of everyone, the cleaners, the cooks, the health care workers of every description, physios, radiographers, pharmacists, who have kept coming to work, kept putting themselves in harm’s way, kept risking this deadly virus,” he said.”



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/boris-johnson-discharged-from-hospital-wont-go-back-to-work-right-away/2020/04/12/e040402e-7cc6-11ea-84c2-0792d8591911_story.html
		



Harry


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## Panina

Coronavirus: Why has the virus hit African Americans so hard? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52245690


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## DannyTS

now you can play with your own Coronavirus model lol! .







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						Epidemic Calculator
					





					gabgoh.github.io


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## queenofthehive

Panina said:


> Coronavirus: Why has the virus hit African Americans so hard? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52245690


Might also have to with ones ability to make vitamin D. Darker skin has a harder time producing vitamin D versus lighter skin. I would be interested to see if scientists have looked at this theory.


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## MULTIZ321

If you think you had coronavirus, a new study might give you your answer.










						If you think you had coronavirus, a new study might give you your answer
					

To date, more than 557,000 people in the U.S. have knowingly tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. A new study, however, is looking to find out how many Americans have COVID-19 but, have not been detected yet.




					www.foxnews.com
				



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Richard


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## MULTIZ321

''THE GOAL IS TO STOP THE VIRUS DEAD IN ITS TRACKS BEFORE IT STOPS US.''










						Beyond hydroxychloroquine: 6 other drugs that could treat Covid-19
					

There's no approved treatment for coronavirus, but scientists are quickly working to exploit the virus' weak spots. Here's how far we've come in a short time.




					www.inverse.com
				



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Richard


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## Panina

MULTIZ321 said:


> If you think you had coronavirus, a new study might give you your answer.
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> If you think you had coronavirus, a new study might give you your answer
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I sent an email to participate.  My guess, my odds of getting selected will be very low.  I think lots of people will volunteer.  Kind of like winning a lotto.


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## b2bailey

I just sent email also. No other instructions were given on info they wan t, so a bit unclear. Did you feel that way also?


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## Panina

b2bailey said:


> I just sent email also. No other instructions were given on info they wan t, so a bit unclear. Did you feel that way also?


Yes unclear.  I put my contact info, my sex and age.


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## Ken555

We are still woefully behind on testing, and it now shows in the stats.


A New Statistic Reveals Why America’s COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat
Few figures tell you anything useful about how the coronavirus has spread through the U.S. Here’s one that does.









						Few statistics tell us anything useful about COVID’s spread in America. This one does. — The Atlantic
					

Few figures tell you anything useful about how the coronavirus has spread through the U.S. Here’s one that does.




					apple.news
				





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## Conan

Ken555 said:


> A New Statistic Reveals Why America’s COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat


"America’s 20 percent positivity rate is disquieting. The U.S. did almost 25 times as many tests on April 15 as on March 15, yet both the daily positive rate and the overall positive rate went up in that month. If the U.S. were a jar of 330 million jelly beans, then over the course of the outbreak, the health-care system has reached in with a bigger and bigger scoop. But every day, 20 percent of the beans it pulls out are positive for COVID-19. If the outbreak were indeed under control, then we would expect more testing—that is, a larger scoop—to yield a smaller and smaller proportion of positives. So far, that hasn’t happened."


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> We are still woefully behind on testing, and it now shows in the stats.
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> A New Statistic Reveals Why America’s COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat
> Few figures tell you anything useful about how the coronavirus has spread through the U.S. Here’s one that does.
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> Few statistics tell us anything useful about COVID’s spread in America. This one does. — The Atlantic
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> Few figures tell you anything useful about how the coronavirus has spread through the U.S. Here’s one that does.
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if the virus has had a higher penetration than though, that is a good thing, it means it is much less scary than people thought. It also means that less people will catch it and transmit it _in the future_.


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## queenofthehive

Ken555 said:


> We are still woefully behind on testing, and it now shows in the stats.
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> A New Statistic Reveals Why America’s COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat
> Few figures tell you anything useful about how the coronavirus has spread through the U.S. Here’s one that does.
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> Few statistics tell us anything useful about COVID’s spread in America. This one does. — The Atlantic
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Yes, sadly we are paying the price for lack of testing. We must ramp up testing. Test, trace, isolate is the only way to fight this disease right now. We must test all and continue to do so as we have people who are asymptomatic that are continuing to spread this disease unknowingly. We must isolate these people as well to help fight the spread. It is like we are trying to shovel snow in a blizzard.


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## DannyTS

in the meantime, the market is reacting to any positive news
*Stocks are set to rally on hope for an effective coronavirus treatment, Dow futures rise 700 points*









						Dow jumps 700 points on hope for a coronavirus treatment, closes at highest level since March
					

Stocks surged after a report said a Gilead Sciences drug was showing effectiveness in treating the coronavirus.




					www.cnbc.com


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## queenofthehive

DannyTS said:


> if the virus has had a higher penetration than though, that is a good thing, it means it is much less scary than people thought. It also means that less people will catch it and transmit it _in the future_.


It also means, if we tested more  in the beginning we could of saved more lives. We could of isolated more of the infected and slowed the spread.


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## DannyTS

queenofthehive said:


> It also means, if we tested more  in the beginning we could of saved more lives. We could of isolated more of the infected and slowed the spread.



I am sure you are referring to the governors and mayors in the most affected states and cities


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## "Roger"

DannyTS said:


> I am sure you are referring to the governors and mayors in the most affected states and cities


???  Despite assurances to the contrary, months ago when governors or mayors might have been able to act, tests were not available. As we get ready for the next phase, success depends upon tracing and testing and nothing approaching an adequate number of tests is still available. That is what frustrates many of us.


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## DannyTS

"Roger" said:


> ???  Despite assurances to the contrary, months ago when governors or mayors might have been able to act, tests were not available. As we get ready for the next phase, success depends upon tracing and testing and nothing approaching an adequate number of tests is still available. That is what frustrates many of us.


??? Many tests, if not all , are produced by private companies. I would like to see the orders  the governors and  mayors placed in January and  February.


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## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> ??? Many tests, if not all , are produced by private companies. I would like to see the orders the governors and mayors placed in January and February.



Danny, our leaders said we would have four million tests within a week over a month ago and they still haven’t provided that many tests. Perhaps you should ask for those orders first, eh?


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Danny, our leaders said we would have four million tests within a week over a month ago and they still haven’t provided that many tests. Perhaps you should ask for those orders first, eh?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


So the four millions tests were in addition to what the mayors and governors had already ordered in January and February? Or you are telling me that they ordered none?

I think the statement about the 4 million tests belongs to Dr Fauci so they will have to hold him accountable for that.


----------



## "Roger"

Report on what went wrong

There has been a sudden attempt to rewrite history.


----------



## DannyTS

.


----------



## WVBaker

"Roger" said:


> Report on what went wrong
> 
> There has been a sudden attempt to rewrite history.



"Roger" give up the repeated denunciation of the administration. You know what the end result is going to be. You hand pick the articles that condemn the current administrations handling of this situation, post the links and scurry off hoping no questions will be asked. Read the rules once again and if there's a problem understanding, just ask.


----------



## "Roger"

Actually I was busy reading the articles that Danny linked to (and since deleted). They pretty much said the same thing as the article that I linked to with some other supporting details.


----------



## DannyTS

"Roger" said:


> Actually I was busy reading the articles that Danny linked to (and since deleted). They pretty much said the same thing as the article that I linked to with some other supporting details.


No, by posting the link I was actually making the case that the articles posted by this journalist are political in nature. I deleted it because I thought it was too political to make that argument and I did not want to go there. I agree with WVBaker


----------



## TravelTime

At least we do not live in China, Russia or North Korea and get stuck with those governments. I much prefer our screwed up system.


----------



## VacationForever

It is very interesting that US/CDC/WHO earlier had dismissed that the virus came from a lab based on analysis of the virus.  Now they have decided that it did come from a lab in Wuhan.  I wonder what can the rest of the countries do about it.


----------



## TravelTime

VacationForever said:


> It is very interesting that US/CDC/WHO earlier had dismissed that the virus came from a lab based on analysis of the virus.  Now they have decided that it did come from a lab in Wuhan.  I wonder what can the rest of the countries do about it.



I thought the lab idea was dismissed.


----------



## VacationForever

TravelTime said:


> I thought the lab idea was dismissed.


It was and it came back alive these past 2 days.


----------



## TravelTime

VacationForever said:


> It was and it came back alive these past 2 days.



Okay, I just googled it and it looks like they are investigating the idea but no conclusions have been made yet.









						US explores possibility that coronavirus spread started in Chinese lab, not a market
					

US intelligence and national security officials say the United States government is looking into the possibility that the novel coronavirus spread from a Chinese laboratory rather than a market, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who caution it is premature to draw any...




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> I think the statement about the 4 million tests belongs to Dr Fauci so they will have to hold him accountable for that.



Pence, not Fauci. So easy to make that mistake. And yes, let's hold him accountable.



			https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-10/millions-of-coronavirus-test-kits-available-soon-pence-says-as-us-cases-top-700
		




> "Over a million tests have been distributed," Pence said, and "before the end of this week, another 4 million tests will be distributed.".


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Pence, not Fauci. So easy to make that mistake. And yes, let's hold him accountable.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-10/millions-of-coronavirus-test-kits-available-soon-pence-says-as-us-cases-top-700


Pence  merely repeated what Dr Fauci said a couple of days before but you do not have a problem with Fauci so you just say Pence. 









						About 4M coronavirus tests available by end of next week, White House expert says
					

Around 4 million coronavirus tests will be available by the end of next week, a White House expert said on Sunday. White House coronavirus task force expert Dr. Anthony Fauci admitted on NBC’…




					nypost.com
				




Also, as I understand it, you need more than one probe for one test so they might have referred to that. But I hope you realize, whomever gave them the information, they were aggregating what the private sector was telling them they could produce at the time.


----------



## DannyTS

this would be really big if it proves to be true in California and other parts of the US

*Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers*










						Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers
					

The researchers claim their findings suggest that between 48,000 and 81,000 people in Santa Clara County had been infected with COVID-19 by April 1, while the total number of confirmed cases was less than 1,000.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> Pence merely repeated what Dr Fauci said a couple of days before but you do not have a problem with Fauci so you just say Pence.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> About 4M coronavirus tests available by end of next week, White House expert says
> 
> 
> Around 4 million coronavirus tests will be available by the end of next week, a White House expert said on Sunday. White House coronavirus task force expert Dr. Anthony Fauci admitted on NBC’…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also, as I understand it, you need more than one probe for one test so they might have referred to that. But I hope you realize, whomever gave them the information, they were aggregating what the private sector was telling them they could produce at the time.



Danny, you make erroneous assumptions. Constantly. 

I would hold anyone responsible for their failures. I don’t care who they are. If Fauci said it, fine. If Pence said it, fine. If it was the private sector, fine. 

However, I do know Fauci is not responsible for the supply chain and cannot order companies to produce tests the way the executive can. So how about we agree that the buck should stop there? But then, the executive doesn’t seem to be taking any responsibility (if you want, I’ll find multiple references to that quote but I’m sure you know it).


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321

Here's How Covid-19 Immunity Compares to Other Diseases.










						Here’s How Covid-19 Immunity Compares to Other Diseases
					

To stop the pandemic, it is critical to know how our immune system's antibodies fight the coronavirus. This is what science can tell us so far.




					www.wired.com
				





Richard


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Danny, you make erroneous assumptions. Constantly.
> 
> I would hold anyone responsible for their failures. I don’t care who they are. If Fauci said it, fine. If Pence said it, fine. If it was the private sector, fine.
> 
> However, I do know Fauci is not responsible for the supply chain and cannot order companies to produce tests the way the executive can. So how about we agree that the buck should stop there? But then, the executive doesn’t seem to be taking any responsibility (if you want, I’ll find multiple references to that quote but I’m sure you know it).
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I agree with you, it was a statement that should not have been made. I am just amazed how people try to find this kind of errors, possibly honest mistakes, and try to skewer those that have probably work 16 hours a day to solve the problem while seeing no fault at the other levels of the government.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> I agree with you, it was a statement that should not have been made. I am just amazed how people try to find this kind of errors, possibly honest mistakes, and try to skewer those that have probably work 16 hours a day to solve the problem while seeing no fault at the other levels of the government.



Yes, absolutely. 

There are already revisionists rewriting history...and we should all know better. Triple check independent sources, don’t post or believe the first thing you see, etc. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Yes, absolutely.
> 
> There are already revisionists rewriting history...and we should all know better. Triple check independent sources, don’t post or believe the first thing you see, etc.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I hope you did not forget where we started. Or did you? 

I just do not see how those that critique one level of the government does not see fault to any of the 50 governors; I can only interpret that view as political. I frankly find your statements ridiculous: revisionist history, erroneous  etc. I will find easily 100 untrue statements and exaggerations by ANY politician including your favorite, if you have one. This was not the point but you chose to peddle on it because you not like the idea of shared responsibility even if it is obvious.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> I hope you did not forget where we started. Or did you?
> 
> I just do not see how those that critique one level of the government does not see fault to any of the 50 governors; I can only interpret that view as political. I frankly find your statements ridiculous: revisionist history, erroneous etc. I will find easily 100 untrue statements and exaggerations by ANY politician including your favorite, if you have one. This was not the point but you chose to peddle on it because you not like the idea of shared responsibility even if it is obvious.



How did you conclude based on my recent posts that I don’t approve of shared responsibility? I just wrote about holding whomever is responsible for the test failure accountable, and you somehow think I don’t blame others? There’s enough blame to go around to all in this mess, regardless of political party. However, it’s just patently obvious to many where we are severely lacking in leadership. 

As for revisionist history...it’s not I who started that nonsense. I’m just making it clear that we see it happening. And not just on TUG, but in many places. 

Though I do admit to be more apt to respond to your posts because I find your emphasis on the economic aspects of this disaster to be completely heartless. 


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Though I do admit to be more apt to respond to your posts because I find your emphasis on the economic aspects of this disaster to be completely heartless.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Half of the globe is borrowing money from the IMF to respond to the economic collapse and these countries did not have money to begin with.

I personally find YOUR view to the response to the crisis completely heartless and unidirectional, my view is that a response that is not measured will bring MORE deaths and more suffering than the virus itself. How would you feel if I said you did not care about the people who may commit suicide, not have food to put on the table, not have the money to pay for medicine in the USA and around the globe as a consequence of the economic collapse?


----------



## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> this would be really big if it proves to be true in California and other parts of the US
> 
> *Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers
> 
> 
> The researchers claim their findings suggest that between 48,000 and 81,000 people in Santa Clara County had been infected with COVID-19 by April 1, while the total number of confirmed cases was less than 1,000.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com



This was in Wall Street Journal today too. It is big news if it proves to be true. But many people do not want to hear that Covid could be less deadly than originally projected.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> Half of the globe is borrowing money from the IMF to respond to the economic collapse and these countries did not have money to begin with.
> 
> I personally find YOUR view to the response to the crisis completely heartless and unidirectional, my view is that a response that is not measured will bring MORE deaths and more suffering than the virus itself. How would you feel if I said you did not care about the people who may commit suicide, not have food to put on the table, not have the money to pay for medicine in the USA and around the globe as a consequence of the economic collapse?



I do believe that constantly referring to the economic impact, obvious to most of us, takes away from the importance of saving lives. That is my only priority right now, and it is rather obvious that the ramifications of this pandemic are much more widespread than just those who sadly become infected.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## TravelTime

Ken555 said:


> I do believe that constantly referring to the economic impact, obvious to most of us, takes away from the importance of saving lives. That is my only priority right now, and it is rather obvious that the ramifications of this pandemic are much more widespread than just those who sadly become infected.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I think it is obvious to most of us too that many people are dying from the virus. But that does not minimize other kinds of suffering. We really can‘t judge and compare suffering. For some people, suicide is preferable to living, or they would not do it. How are we to judge?


----------



## Ken555

TravelTime said:


> I think it is obvious to most of us too that many people are dying from the virus. But that does not minimize other kinds of suffering. We really can‘t judge and compare suffering. For some people, suicide is preferable to living, or they would not do it. How are we to judge?



Yes, but who said anything about judging? I know many are working on the ramifications of the lockdown, and it’s clearly not sufficient. We know that. Focusing on the economic aspects over the medical is misplaced, in my opinion, and there are some who continue to mention it as if simply opening up is going to solve anything other than flood our hospitals.


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## DavidnRobin

Just another attempt to normalize two things that are not equivalent. For what reason? Who knows?
Sad perspective that is unfortunately too common these days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Yes, but who said anything about judging? I know many are working on the ramifications of the lockdown, and it’s clearly not sufficient. We know that. Focusing on the economic aspects over the medical is misplaced, in my opinion, and there are some who continue to mention it as if simply opening up is going to solve anything other than flood our hospitals.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


you really have to brush up on studies about the correlation between income and health. If income of a certain % of the population is destroyed, higher mortality rate follows. Not immediately but it eventually may be higher than what the virus kills today. I actually find the "lives or the economy" statements rather selfish if they come from people who are well off or without any risk of falling into the lower brackets. 

"A similar continuous relation between income and mortality has been shown in Canada. 16 The relative measure means that as you move from the top income to the $30,000–$50,000 range, mortality is multiplied about 1.6 times. As you move down two further categories, to the $15,000–$20,000 range, it is multiplied by about 1.9 again, to give three times higher mortality than is true for the group with the highest income. But this approximately constant relative increase must correspond to an increasing mortality disadvantage if measured on an absolute scale. To illustrate, suppose that the annual mortality rates in the three income categories just described were 1 percent, 1.6 percent, and 3 percent, respectively. The increase in mortality in going from the richest to the $30,000–$50,000 range is 0.6 percent per year. The further increase in going down to the $15,000–$20,000 range is 1.4 percent—more than twice as great."



			https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.21.2.31


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> you really have to brush up on studies about the correlation between income and health. If income of a certain % of the population is destroyed, higher mortality rate follows. Not immediately but it eventually may be higher than what the virus kills today. I actually find the "lives or the economy" statements rather selfish if they come from people who are well off or without any risk of falling into the lower brackets.
> 
> "A similar continuous relation between income and mortality has been shown in Canada. 16 The relative measure means that as you move from the top income to the $30,000–$50,000 range, mortality is multiplied about 1.6 times. As you move down two further categories, to the $15,000–$20,000 range, it is multiplied by about 1.9 again, to give three times higher mortality than is true for the group with the highest income. But this approximately constant relative increase must correspond to an increasing mortality disadvantage if measured on an absolute scale. To illustrate, suppose that the annual mortality rates in the three income categories just described were 1 percent, 1.6 percent, and 3 percent, respectively. The increase in mortality in going from the richest to the $30,000–$50,000 range is 0.6 percent per year. The further increase in going down to the $15,000–$20,000 range is 1.4 percent—more than twice as great."
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.21.2.31



Stop lecturing me, it won’t work. I’m not going to engage with you again about this issue. Sorry I bothered. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Stop lecturing me, it won’t work. I’m not going to engage with you again about this issue. Sorry I bothered.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I totally get it, why would you engage in a conversation if it  does not reinforce your convictions?









						The American dream may help the poorest among us live longer. Here's why
					

Americans living in counties with more opportunities to get ahead live longer than those living where it's most difficult to improve their lot in life.




					www.latimes.com
				





"For Americans who live in communities where prospects for economic advancement are scant, life is not only bleak — it’s shorter too.

New research has found that people who live in counties with more opportunities to improve their lot in life can expect to live longer than those who live in counties where it’s virtually impossible to get ahead.

The “longevity gap” between rich and poor Americans is already well known. Once they reach the age of 40, American men with household incomes in the top 25% can expect to live 45 more years, on average. But 40-year-old men in the bottom 25% have an average life expectancy of just 36 years.

The gap for women is smaller, but still significant. A typical 40-year-old woman in a high-income household can expect to reach the age of 87. That’s 5½ years longer than her counterpart at the other end of the economic spectrum.

But that’s not the whole story.

The new analysis of U.S. counties links greater social mobility to a smaller longevity gap, as well as a lack of social mobility to a bigger life expectancy gap. In fact, differences in Americans’ ability to climb the economic ladder helped account for roughly 20% of the disparity in the length of life, according to the study published this week in JAMA Internal Medicine.

The findings offer novel evidence that the vitality of the communities in which we live can make a difference in our health and longevity. In places where jobs are scarce, education is poor and and longevity. In places where jobs are scarce, education is poor and ambition is dimmed, residents who should be in the prime of life are more prone to physical and mental illnesses, and are less likely to quit unhealthy habits or seek the help they need to improve their condition. 
The result: shorter lifespans. 
“The findings underscore the importance of both opportunity and hope,” said Dr. Anand Parekh, chief medical director of the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center. “We are just starting to realize as a healthcare community how important emotional well-being is to overall health,” added Parekh, who was not involved in the new research.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> I do believe that constantly referring to the economic impact, obvious to most of us, takes away from the importance of saving lives.


Are you willing to consider the possibility that doing everything we can to save lives now might cause more deaths down the road?  Or is that a question that you regard as impermissible to consider in current decision making?

Because if that is not possible, then it seems to me that it would be impossible for you to engage in any kind of dialog with someone who shares a different opinion on this matter. As much as they might reach out to you and address your concerns, you will be unable to reach out to them in kind.

Or have I misunderstood your situation?


----------



## queenofthehive

DannyTS said:


> I am sure you are referring to the governors and mayors in the most affected states and cities


No, I am referring to all states. This disease hits everywhere. We need to make sure we catch the flare ups in areas as to not overwhelm the hospitals.   Rural towns are most susceptible  to this as they are not as well equipped as the larger urban hospitals . Hospitals still do not have enough PPE not mention money, equipment or staff.


----------



## MULTIZ321

Scientists tap CRISPR's search-and-detect skills to
create a rapid Covid-19 test.










						Scientists tap CRISPR's search-and-detect skills to create a rapid Covid-19 test
					

Scientists at UCSF and Mammoth Biosciences are racing to develop a CRISPR-based test that could be used to quickly identify #Covid19 infections.




					www.statnews.com
				





Richard


----------



## CalGalTraveler

I hope our state puts an enforceable 14 day quarantine in place for anyone from a state or locality that hasn't been abiding by SIP or opens up prematurely. The last thing we need is to extend our timeline and impact our healthcare services because others who don't respect SIP infect those in our state.

If you feel it is okay to open up in your state, then that is your right and you will live with the consequences. But don't travel and impact those of us who are trying to knock this thing down, respect our health care workers, and save lives. 

P.S. the chart below is from Dr Ho, from Columbia University who discovered treatment for HIV and is working on a Covid-19 treatment.


----------



## DannyTS

CalGalTraveler said:


> I hope our state puts an enforceable 14 day quarantine in place for anyone from a state or locality that hasn't been abiding by SIP or opens up prematurely. The last thing we need is to extend our timeline and impact our healthcare services because others who don't respect SIP reinfect those in our state.
> 
> If you feel it is okay to open up in your state, then that is your right and you will live with the consequences. But don't travel and impact those of us who are trying to knock this thing down and save lives.
> 
> 
> View attachment 19267


Most of the "flattening the curve" models I have seen circulating on the internet are without any scale for any of the two axis. This one is no better and additionally it does not explain why the black line is the way it is and why *the black line does not influence at all the purple line*. It is very easy to draw "models" like this without any numbers, how can they be hold accountable? Is this a scientific model where each line is a different state or a  city (can we know which ones) or they were just drawn  on a Saturday morning on a napkin?


----------



## CalGalTraveler

Don't over complicate this. It's very simple. The more people that become exposed to others that are infected, the more people that become ill.  This virus has no way to spread unless people are in contact with those who are infected.

What the chart below from Johns Hopkins says per capita:  For each human contact, you have a greater chance of contracting Coronavirus in Sioux City, South Dakota or other midwestern counties in dark red, than in California because you have a greater likelihood of coming into contact with someone who is infected.


----------



## DannyTS

There is nothing simple about this. If you are so sure that after 2-3 months of draconian measures will be zero new cases in the USA please let me know but the evidence coming from South Korea, China etc show that's not the case so we will have to learn to live with some sort of reduced mitigation measures sooner rather than later.

What you also suggest is to punish citizens of a state not based on the numbers of active cases but rather than on measures that are subjective. Would you rather have someone visiting California from New York or South Dakota?


----------



## CalGalTraveler

@DannyTS See the chart in my post above which you may have overlooked. No, I would not want someone from South Dakota or NY visiting California right now based on the odds of coming into contact with someone who is infected. Below is a per capita chart by state. There is no broad-based testing from the Feds to know who is a spreader, who is immune to avoid SIP like South Korea did. Lack of testing is what is preventing opening up the country because we cannot get granular info and must resort to old fashioned "draconian" mass population methods such as SIP.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

Broad based testing is how S. Korea avoided SIP for all but school children. The real question is what is holding up testing in the US so we can open up the country again?









						South Korea's foreign minister explains how the country contained COVID-19
					

South Korea had seemed on the brink of a coronavirus catastrophe – but it has turned the tide, as Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha explains.




					www.weforum.org


----------



## DannyTS

good news (partially) 

*Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer*










						Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer
					

Preliminary results from government lab experiments show that the coronavirus does not survive long under high-temperature, high-humidity conditions, and is quickly destroyed by sunlight, providing evidence from controlled tests of what scientists believed — but had not yet proved — to be true.




					ca.yahoo.com


----------



## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Are you willing to consider the possibility that doing everything we can to save lives now might cause more deaths down the road? Or is that a question that you regard as impermissible to consider in current decision making?
> 
> Because if that is not possible, then it seems to me that it would be impossible for you to engage in any kind of dialog with someone who shares a different opinion on this matter. As much as they might reach out to you and address your concerns, you will be unable to reach out to them in kind.
> 
> Or have I misunderstood your situation?



This question is certainly valid, and I’ve acknowledged it. However, the context has been with emphasis on the economy. Should you phrase the question in regards to the other issues, then from my perspective it’s worth discussion. However, there is a certain segment of the country which is being told to reopen the economy for partisan reasons and the economic argument is inherent in it, so any discussion about an economy opening prior to having sufficient testing (we are still the lowest country testing as a %, from what I’ve seen), etc is a problem. This is an area where I trust the scientists over politicians...

I am very concerned about the ramifications of stay at home restrictions, as I am about the continued high utilization of hospital beds since there will be many who die because they can’t get the help they need in time, or in safety. Stopping the stay at home before we have sufficient testing, tracing and more is simply asking for this virus to spread more, which will fill hospitals again, etc. 

I am having this conversation with friends, and we have discussed it at length. I’ve also read many articles on this issue, including the ones Danny posted (one from my home paper, no less), so this is not new to me.

Keep in mind the same discussion occurred in 1918 and some areas opened up too early when they thought it was contained (or almost over) with deleterious outcomes. We should learn from history.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS

It is not clear to me if  bulling the governors who want to gradually and (hopefully) safely open businesses in their states is due to the the fear of  what would happen to the people of that state, fear of what impact it  will have to the people of other states or simply because some  politicians are afraid that other models of dealing with this may work as well and this will  damage their own image if people think they should have taken another route that worked. There is always perceived safety for the politicians and bureaucrats when they do what everyone else is doing.  Those that do not align should be ridiculed and crushed.


----------



## TravelTime

CalGalTraveler said:


> I hope our state puts an enforceable 14 day quarantine in place for anyone from a state or locality that hasn't been abiding by SIP or opens up prematurely. The last thing we need is to extend our timeline and impact our healthcare services because others who don't respect SIP infect those in our state.
> 
> If you feel it is okay to open up in your state, then that is your right and you will live with the consequences. But don't travel and impact those of us who are trying to knock this thing down, respect our health care workers, and save lives.
> 
> P.S. the chart below is from Dr Ho, from Columbia University who discovered treatment for HIV and is working on a Covid-19 treatment.
> 
> 
> View attachment 19267



Good idea but I do not think California can monitor and enforce where people come from. IMO, California has not been all that strict. Currently, I am living in a semi-rural area with not a lot of traffic on normal days so when I go out, things still seem normal. I still see crowded parking lots at grocery stores, Home Depot and Target. Most restaurants are still open for take out. See long lines at fast food restaurants. No one at our local market was wearing masks and people were coming within 6’ of each other. My office is in the Bay Area and I work with many clients who live in the BayArea. I hear they are still traveling to visit loved ones. My employees have gone back to our office to pick up supplies. It is not like California is on a strict quarantine.


----------



## TravelTime

CalGalTraveler said:


> @DannyTS See the chart in my post above which you may have overlooked. No, I would not want someone from South Dakota or NY visiting California right now based on the odds of coming into contact with someone who is infected. Below is a per capita chart by state. There is no broad-based testing from the Feds to know who is a spreader, who is immune to avoid SIP like South Korea did. Lack of testing is what is preventing opening up the country because we cannot get granular info and must resort to old fashioned "draconian" mass population methods such as SIP.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 19272



Based on this chart, I would not want Californians coming into my state. California is still one of the most affected states.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

@TravelTime It's better than other states. However the U.S. is worse than any other country on the planet so it is all relative.

I have heard Tuggers assuming that Americans will be able to travel internationally once things die down. It is possible that other countries will not want anyone from the U.S. entering their country potentially infecting their citizens.


----------



## TravelTime

CalGalTraveler said:


> @TravelTime It's better than other states. However the U.S. is worse than any other country on the planet so it is all relative.
> 
> I have heard Tuggers assuming that Americans will be able to travel internationally once things die down. It is possible that other countries will not want anyone from the U.S. entering their country potentially infecting their citizens.



I do not think we will be able to travel internationally when they lift SIP/SAH. I agree that many countries and even the State of Hawaii will not want people from the US mainland to visit. California is doing better than other states, especially per capita, but we still have some of the worst number of total cases and deaths. We have an epicenter in Santa Clara County. It is nothing like New York, New Jersey or Michigan but still high. New York is really the problem!


----------



## Ken555

TravelTime said:


> New York is really the problem!



And South Dakota and Florida and Louisiana and Alabama... 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS

CalGalTraveler said:


> @DannyTS See the chart in my post above which you may have overlooked. No, I would not want someone from South Dakota or NY visiting California right now based on the odds of coming into contact with someone who is infected. Below is a per capita chart by state. There is no broad-based testing from the Feds to know who is a spreader, who is immune to avoid SIP like South Korea did. Lack of testing is what is preventing opening up the country because we cannot get granular info and must resort to old fashioned "draconian" mass population methods such as SIP.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 19272



according to John Hopkins, California has 1037 deaths, South Dakota 7. 
Adjusted for the population, California has 4 times more deaths than SD









						COVID-19 United States Cases by County - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

Johns Hopkins U.S. County Level COVID-19 Tracking Map




					coronavirus.jhu.edu


----------



## TravelTime

Ken555 said:


> And South Dakota and Florida and Louisiana and Alabama...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I did not mean to imply that other states are not a problem. I was just stressing New York because half of cases and deaths are there. New York has a disproportionately huge percentage of total cases and deaths in the USA.


----------



## Ken555

TravelTime said:


> I did not mean to imply that other states are not a problem. I was just stressing New York because half of cases and deaths are there. New York has a disproportionately huge percentage of total cases and deaths in the USA.



Yes, that is correct. Thanks.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> according to John Hopkins, California has 1037 deaths, South Dakota 7.
> Adjusted for the population, California has 4 times more deaths than SD
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 United States Cases by County - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
> 
> 
> Johns Hopkins U.S. County Level COVID-19 Tracking Map
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coronavirus.jhu.edu



Danny, 

Please look up the % increase over the last week of those tested and infected in South Dakota.

Ken


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS

CalGalTraveler said:


> @TravelTime It's better than other states. However the U.S. is worse than any other country on the planet so it is all relative.
> 
> I have heard Tuggers assuming that Americans will be able to travel internationally once things die down. It is possible that other countries will not want anyone from the U.S. entering their country potentially infecting their citizens.


You are probably not adjusting for the population:









						Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.




					coronavirus.jhu.edu


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Danny,
> 
> Please look up the % increase over the last week of those tested and infected in South Dakota.
> 
> Ken
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


they had an outbreak at a pork facility, everyone knows that. Essential service, many immigrants working there, the factory would have not been closed anyways. We have the same problem in Canada, it seems to be the nature of the business and less to do with the measures imposed by the state/province authorities.


----------



## Conan

DannyTS said:


> Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
> 
> 
> How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coronavirus.jhu.edu
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 19287


Let's make a note to check this again in a couple of months when US cases hopefully are on the downslope


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> they had an outbreak at a pork facility, everyone knows that. Essential services, many immigrants working there, the factory would have not been closed anyways. We have the same problem in Canada, it seems to be the nature of the business and less to do with the measures imposed by the state/province authorities.



Yes, but are you assuming that otherwise it’s okay there? They still don’t have stay at home restrictions. It’s not rocket science to predict where it’s going there. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

> An average of 146,000 people per day have been tested for the coronavirus nationally so far this month, according to the COVID Tracking Project, which on Friday reported 3.6 million total tests across the country. To reopen the United States by mid-May, the number of daily tests performed between now and then should be 500,000 to 700,000, according to the Harvard estimates.
> 
> That level of testing is necessary to identify the majority of people who are infected and isolate them from people who are healthy, according to the researchers. About 20 percent of those tested so far were positive for the virus, a rate that the researchers say is too high.











						Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say (Published 2020)
					

As some governors look to ease coronavirus restrictions, public health experts say the country needs at least half a million tests per day to safely reopen.



					www.nytimes.com
				





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----------



## CalGalTraveler

DannyTS said:


> according to John Hopkins, California has 1037 deaths, South Dakota 7.
> Adjusted for the population, California has 4 times more deaths than SD
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 United States Cases by County - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
> 
> 
> Johns Hopkins U.S. County Level COVID-19 Tracking Map
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coronavirus.jhu.edu



Although tragic, dead people cannot infect me and death rates takes this off topic. It's the people who are alive and may spread the virus to others. The virus has spread well beyond the plant and it was noted at businesses, family and town per the local newspaper.

On a per capita basis, a person from Sioux City has a higher odds of having come into contact with the infection and could spread it.


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> As some governors look to ease coronavirus restrictions, public health experts say the country needs at least half a million tests per day to safely reopen.
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


you have to watch what Dr Fauci said Friday about testing ( 33m40s)


----------



## TravelTime

CalGalTraveler said:


> Although tragic, dead people cannot infect me. It's the people who are alive and may spread the virus to others. The virus has spread well beyond the plant and it was noted at businesses, family and town per the local newspaper.
> 
> On a per capita basis, the person from Sioux City has a higher odds of having come into contact with the infection.



Dead people may spread the virus. One of my employee’s husbands is an embalmer. He was just sick for 3 weeks after working on a Covid positive case.


----------



## DannyTS

CalGalTraveler said:


> Although tragic, dead people cannot infect me. It's the people who are alive and may spread the virus to others. The virus has spread well beyond the plant and it was noted at businesses, family and town per the local newspaper.
> 
> On a per capita basis, the person from Sioux City has a higher odds of having come into contact with the infection.


you probably wanted to compare Sioux city with Los Angeles for example, not with California.

You probably missed the news, the Bay area may have an infection rate 85 times higher than reported so the comfort you may have from the numbers you see in California may be misplaced.

*Antibody study suggests Covid-19 could be far more prevalent in the Bay Area than official numbers suggest*










						Antibody study suggests Covid-19 could be far more prevalent in the Bay Area than official numbers suggest
					

Researchers from Stanford University shared the results of a large-scale community test, and estimate that between 2.5% and 4.2% of the population of Santa Clara County may have antibodies.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## CalGalTraveler

@DannyTS If you look at the per capita chart below compare the lighter color of LA to the dark color of Sioux Falls, SD and other U.S. hotspots. Also note the lighter colors of the Bay Area. This is about odds. 

Re: Bay Area potentially having more cases, what is not to say the same prevalence is in South Dakota as the Bay Area? Just because it is not measured, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It could all be relative.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> you have to watch what Dr Fauci said Friday about testing ( 33m40s)



Thanks - I hadn't seen that yet. It's a good reminder of what's going on and everyone should watch (that section). It also doesn't contradict the NYT article I posted.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

TravelTime said:


> Dead people may spread the virus. One of my employee’s husbands is an embalmer. He was just sick for 3 weeks after working on a Covid positive case.



My point is that dead people don't travel to other states spreading it to others.


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Thanks - I hadn't seen that yet. It's a good reminder of what's going on and everyone should watch (that section). It also doesn't contradict the NYT article I posted.


I watch almost everything Dr Fauci and Dr Birks say at the Task forced conferences (and skip the rest). It is a good source of unbiased and fresh information, without the media spin. 

It is actually very different from what the NYT is saying, Dr Fauci is saying that they are confident in the steps they are taking.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> I watch almost everything Dr Fauci and Dr Birks say at the Task forced conferences (and skip the rest). It is a good source of unbiased and fresh information, without the media spin.
> 
> It is actually very different from what the NYT is saying, Dr Fauci is saying that they are confident in the steps they are taking.



I would not be surprised to find that both are valid and correct. The NYT is talking about the number of tests primarily, not the type of test as Fauci is referring to. I didn't hear Fauci say we need less tests, did you?


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> I would not be surprised to find that both are valid and correct. The NYT is talking about the number of tests primarily, not the type of test as Fauci is referring to. I didn't hear Fauci say we need less tests, did you?


I do not think there is a person in the whole universe that says that less tests are needed. 

But both Dr Fauci and Dr Birx point out they are very comfortable with the path they are taking. NYT makes the availability of 3 times more testing a condition to reopen parts of the country. Of course, if they had 3 times more tests they would ask for 9 times more.


----------



## Rolltydr

DannyTS said:


> I do not think there is a person in the whole universe that says that less tests are needed.
> 
> But both Dr Fauci and Dr Birx point out they are very comfortable with the path they are taking. NYT makes the availability of 3 times more testing a condition to reopen parts of the country. Of course, if they had 3 times more tests they would ask for 9 times more.



Please be accurate. The NYT didn’t say anything. They reported what the Harvard study said.


----------



## DannyTS

Rolltydr said:


> Please be accurate. The NYT didn’t say anything. They reported what the Harvard study said.


I am not sure about it. You read the quotes, the scientists do not say that. I will have to read the study. I do not believe the scientists at the Harvard university can make rather easy mistakes like not taking into account the specificity of a state, or a city.

For example, according to the article,  New York only has to go from 118 to 150 (almost there in terms of testing and they can open!)




But Ohio needs 7 times more tests






Even funnier, Rhode Island is good already. Hello, have they opened yet?


----------



## Jan M.

This is from a friend of one of my former employees. 

"No matter what party you are, and no matter what you believe about the virus, some say from a market, some from a lab in China, there is ONE theory that all scientists seem to agree on: This all began with ONE SINGLE PERSON NOT USING SOCIAL DISTANCING after getting sick! ONE PERSON CAUSED EVERY HARDSHIP YOU NOW SEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Reminder----- YOU are one person, What will you do??????????????????????"

And that one person had no idea what they were unintentionally spreading.


----------



## TravelTime

Jan M. said:


> This is from a friend of one of my former employees.
> 
> "No matter what party you are, and no matter what you believe about the virus, some say from a market, some from a lab in China, there is ONE theory that all scientists seem to agree on: This all began with ONE SINGLE PERSON NOT USING SOCIAL DISTANCING after getting sick! ONE PERSON CAUSED EVERY HARDSHIP YOU NOW SEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Reminder----- YOU are one person, What will you do??????????????????????"
> 
> And that one person had no idea what they were unintentionally spreading.



So should we be pissed off at all the people who got Covid because it is likely they spread it before they know they had it?


----------



## Ken555

I want my death to make you angry
					

If I die, I don’t want to be remembered as a hero. I want my death to make you angry too. I want you to politicize my death. I want you to use it at fuel...



					mnnurses.org
				






> What is it like being a nurse in a pandemic? Every day I bounce through the stages of grief like a pinball. The ricochet and whiplash leaves my soul tired and bruised.




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----------



## CalGalTraveler

Another reason why we need testing and PPE...and lots of it. STAT

No matter how you slice it there are almost 2000 Americans dying per day right now. That's 60,000 deaths a MONTH if this trend continues. Medical workers are working around the clock to manage the surge of patients. Can't put lipstick on that pig.


----------



## DannyTS

Jan M. said:


> This is from a friend of one of my former employees.
> 
> "No matter what party you are, and no matter what you believe about the virus, some say from a market, some from a lab in China, there is ONE theory that all scientists seem to agree on: This all began with ONE SINGLE PERSON NOT USING SOCIAL DISTANCING after getting sick! ONE PERSON CAUSED EVERY HARDSHIP YOU NOW SEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Reminder----- YOU are one person, What will you do??????????????????????"
> 
> And that one person had no idea what they were unintentionally spreading.


That, and corroborated the possibility that a lot more people may actually have it would also mean the resistance is futile. 

What troubles me is that they had this lab in a city with 10 million people. What is next, nuclear experiments in urban areas?


----------



## Panina

Jan M. said:


> This is from a friend of one of my former employees.
> 
> "No matter what party you are, and no matter what you believe about the virus, some say from a market, some from a lab in China, there is ONE theory that all scientists seem to agree on: This all began with ONE SINGLE PERSON NOT USING SOCIAL DISTANCING after getting sick! ONE PERSON CAUSED EVERY HARDSHIP YOU NOW SEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Reminder----- YOU are one person, What will you do??????????????????????"
> 
> And that one person had no idea what they were unintentionally spreading.


Simplistic and realistic.  One person not taking all precautions can spread to many.


----------



## Panina

TravelTime said:


> So should we be pissed off at all the people who got Covid because it is likely they spread it before they know they had it?


No, but now that we know you can spread it before you know it,  we can be pissed off at those who do not take proper precautions.


----------



## Jan M.

Jan M. said:


> This is from a friend of one of my former employees.
> 
> "No matter what party you are, and no matter what you believe about the virus, some say from a market, some from a lab in China, there is ONE theory that all scientists seem to agree on: This all began with ONE SINGLE PERSON NOT USING SOCIAL DISTANCING after getting sick! ONE PERSON CAUSED EVERY HARDSHIP YOU NOW SEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Reminder----- YOU are one person, What will you do??????????????????????"
> 
> And that one person had no idea what they were unintentionally spreading.





TravelTime said:


> So should we be pissed off at all the people who got Covid because it is likely they spread it before they know they had it?



Huh! How in the world did you get that out of what William said that I posted? Or did you mean to reply to Panina's post?


----------



## DannyTS

CalGalTraveler said:


> @DannyTS If you look at the per capita chart below compare the lighter color of LA to the dark color of Sioux Falls, SD and other U.S. hotspots. Also note the lighter colors of the Bay Area. This is about odds.
> 
> Re: Bay Area potentially having more cases, what is not to say the same prevalence is in South Dakota as the Bay Area? Just because it is not measured, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It could all be relative.


Well, maybe it is just to early to celebrate and for any county and state to lecture others:

*L.A. County reports 81 new coronavirus deaths, highest one-day total by far*

Los Angeles County on Saturday reported 81 new deaths related to COVID-19, the county’s highest one-day death toll from the disease by far.

The county also announced 642 additional coronavirus cases Saturday. Long Beach, which has its own health department, reported an additional death and 30 new cases Saturday, for a total of 12,051 cases and 577 deaths in L.A. County.









						Coronavirus In L.A. County: Death Count Slows, But Toll Is Likely Underreported – Updated
					

UPDATED, 1:15 PM: Los Angeles County saw 68 more coronavirus-related deaths during the past 24 hours, local health officials said Thursday. That’s two more deaths than the 66 reported on Tues…




					deadline.com


----------



## DannyTS

"Mayor Bill de Blasio wants New Yorkers to rat out their fellow citizens who are not following social distancing orders during the coronavirus pandemic by taking a photo of the violators with their cell phones and texting it to the city"









						Bill de Blasio urges locals to SNITCH on those not social distancing
					

Mayor Bill de Blasio wants New Yorkers to rat out their fellow citizens who are not following social distancing orders by taking a photo of the violators with their cell phones and texting it to the city.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## VacationForever

DannyTS said:


> "Mayor Bill de Blasio wants New Yorkers to rat out their fellow citizens who are not following social distancing orders during the coronavirus pandemic by taking a photo of the violators with their cell phones and texting it to the city"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bill de Blasio urges locals to SNITCH on those not social distancing
> 
> 
> Mayor Bill de Blasio wants New Yorkers to rat out their fellow citizens who are not following social distancing orders by taking a photo of the violators with their cell phones and texting it to the city.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk


So Mayor Blasio has decided to turn NYC into a Communist city.  That's what the Communists in China told everyone to do.  The result is what you now see in China, to each his/her own and families mean nothing because they were told to snitch on everyone including parents and children.


----------



## TravelTime

Jan M. said:


> Huh! How in the world did you get that out of what William said that I posted? Or did you mean to reply to Panina's post?



I meant that only people who have covid can spread it. The only people we know for sure who have it are those who get sick or get tested and have a positive diagnosis. So we can be pretty sure that anyone who has it probably has spread it to someone else. Otherwise, it would not spread. It does not spread among non positive people (unless it is a false negative of course).


----------



## CalGalTraveler

@DannyTS To clarify my point, this is simple math. The odds of being in contact with an infected person if you meet someone from one of these locations.

Here are the figures as of today (including your latest):

LA County              *113* cases per 100k population
Santa Clara Co         *97*  cases per 100k  (Bay Area)
Alameda Co            * 69*  cases per 100k  (Bay Area)
Minnihaha County *683* cases per 100k   (Sioux Falls, SD)
Miami Dade          * 333* cases per 100k
Cook County         * 390 *cases per 100k









						Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
					

A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.



					www.nytimes.com
				




By way of example: If you were required to choose between sitting by one of two people on a plane. Which seat has better odds of avoiding Covid-19?

*Seat A)* next to someone from Sioux Falls, SD
or
*Seat B)* next to someone from LA County.

Which would you pick?  If you pick Seat A then you have almost a 7x chance of contracting Covid-19 by sitting next to someone from Sioux Falls instead of sitting by the person from LA County. Simple odds.

Did you know that Sioux City is considered the biggest hot spot in the USA right now?

Yes LA has a lot of cases but it is a massive pond with many uninfected fish.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> Well, maybe it is just to early to celebrate and for any county and state to lecture others:
> 
> *L.A. County reports 81 new coronavirus deaths, highest one-day total by far*
> 
> Los Angeles County on Saturday reported 81 new deaths related to COVID-19, the county’s highest one-day death toll from the disease by far.
> 
> The county also announced 642 additional coronavirus cases Saturday. Long Beach, which has its own health department, reported an additional death and 30 new cases Saturday, for a total of 12,051 cases and 577 deaths in L.A. County.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus In L.A. County: Death Count Slows, But Toll Is Likely Underreported – Updated
> 
> 
> UPDATED, 1:15 PM: Los Angeles County saw 68 more coronavirus-related deaths during the past 24 hours, local health officials said Thursday. That’s two more deaths than the 66 reported on Tues…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> deadline.com



We knew the curve ahead of time, and that’s why our Mayor closed the city early. Of course there are deaths now, but it’s less than it would have been had we not closed. But you know this, so not sure why you didn’t include this salient fact... 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## TravelTime

Jan M. said:


> This is from a friend of one of my former employees.
> 
> "No matter what party you are, and no matter what you believe about the virus, some say from a market, some from a lab in China, there is ONE theory that all scientists seem to agree on: This all began with ONE SINGLE PERSON NOT USING SOCIAL DISTANCING after getting sick! ONE PERSON CAUSED EVERY HARDSHIP YOU NOW SEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Reminder----- YOU are one person, What will you do??????????????????????"
> 
> And that one person had no idea what they were unintentionally spreading.



What bothers me about this post is that it is blaming and judgmental. It sounds like this person is lecturing and yelling at people to whip them into shape. Why all the caps, exclamation points and question marks. I certainly hope this person is staying home and not having any contact with anyone if he/she is going to lecture others. Personally, if someone has the urge to lecture others, I would prefer to see helpful posts that simply state what you need to do to be healthy and safe such as the CDC guidelines. I DO NOT NEED TO BE YELLED AT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL PRETTY ANNOYING ISN’T IT?????????????????


----------



## Jan M.

TravelTime said:


> What bothers me about this post is that it is blaming and judgmental. It sounds like this person is lecturing and yelling at people to whip them into shape. Why all the caps, exclamation points and question marks. I certainly hope this person is staying home and not having any contact with anyone if he/she is going to lecture others. Personally, if someone has the urge to lecture others, I would prefer to see helpful posts that simply state what you need to do to be healthy and safe such as the CDC guidelines. I DO NOT NEED TO BE YELLED AT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL PRETTY ANNOYING ISN’T IT?????????????????



Wow talk about judgemental and lecturing. I know that was not his intent but it clearly is yours and in an extremely offensive manner. Do you twist everything to your own agenda? I directly quoted what the person sent without editing it for our group. Sorry if you find caps and punctuation irritating.


----------



## TravelTime

Jan M. said:


> Wow talk about judgemental and lecturing. I know that was not his intent but it clearly is yours and in an extremely offensive manner. Do you twist everything to your own agenda? I directly quoted what the person sent without editing it for our group. Sorry if you find caps and punctuation irritating.
> 
> View attachment 19318



Now you know how your post made me feel. It was very judgmental and lecturing. I stand by that. I was simply asking people to be more helpful instead of lecturing. This post feels like another lecture. I am so tired of all the lectures and social distancing police on social media. It gets irritating after awhile. I am sorry you were offended by my post. I added the caps, exclamation points and question marks to make the point. I guess it worked. It is strange to be called judgmental for pointing out that someone else is judgmental. So now you are judging me for judging the post. So I find your response to be judgmental.


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> We knew the curve ahead of time, and that’s why our Mayor closed the city early. Of course there are deaths now, but it’s less than it would have been had we not closed. But you know this, so not sure why you didn’t include this salient fact...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk





CalGalTraveler said:


> @DannyTS This is simple math. The odds of being in contact with an infected person if you meet someone from one of these locations.
> 
> Here are the figures as of today (including your latest):
> 
> LA County              *113* cases per 100k population
> Santa Clara Co         *97*  cases per 100k  (Bay Area)
> Alameda Co            * 69*  cases per 100k  (Bay Area)
> Minnihaha County *683* cases per 100k   (Sioux Falls, SD)
> Miami Dade          * 333* cases per 100k
> Cook County         * 390 *cases per 100k
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
> 
> 
> A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> By way of example: If you were required to choose between sitting by one of two people on a plane. Which seat has better odds of avoiding Covid-19?
> 
> *Seat A)* next to someone from Sioux Falls, SD
> or
> *Seat B)* next to someone from LA County.
> 
> Which would you pick?  If you pick Seat A then you have almost a 7x chance of contracting Covid-19 by sitting next to someone from Sioux Falls instead of sitting by the person from LA County. Simple odds.
> 
> Did you know that Sioux City is considered the biggest hot spot in the USA right now?
> 
> Yes LA has a lot of cases but it is a massive pond with many uninfected fish.


In this context of covid 19 I would rather sit next to someone from South Dakota that does not work at the pork plant (or a relative)  than from someone from  California

 First of all, California has one of the lowest rates of testing in the US, 50% lower thank SD. As the Standford study said, the infection rate in some parts of California may be up to 85 times higher than officially recognized. 

As you chose to cherry pick the county, the problem in SD seems to revolve around that pork plant. Am I saying that the rest of the population is completely safe? No, but that pork plant is a complete anomaly and in statistics you always want to eliminate those. 

There is something about the meat plants that make them ideal for the virus to spread but it does not tell me a lot about the rest of the population. 



			https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article242055776.html
		


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cargill-deena-hinshaw-covid-19-1.5536916



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/meat-packing-covid-1.5533574
		




			https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article242055776.html


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> In this context of covid 19 I would rather sit next to someone from South Dakota that does not work at the pork plant (or a relative) than from someone from California
> 
> First of all, California has one of the lowest rates of testing in the US, 50% lower thank SD. As the Standford study said, the infection rate in some parts of California may be up to 85 times higher than officially recognized.
> 
> As you chose to cherry pick the county, the problem in SD seems to revolve around that pork plant. Am I saying that the rest of the population is completely safe? No, but that pork plant is a complete anomaly and in statistics you always want to eliminate those.
> 
> There is something about the meat plants that make them ideal for the virus to spread but it does not tell me a lot about the rest of the population.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article242055776.html
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cargill-deena-hinshaw-covid-19-1.5536916
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/meat-packing-covid-1.5533574
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article242055776.html



By the same logic, I’d rather sit next to someone who has been self isolated for the last month. How far do you want to take this? Time for reasonable discussion again, I think. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## b2bailey

queenofthehive said:


> It also means, if we tested more  in the beginning we could of saved more lives. We could of isolated more of the infected and slowed the spread.


Coulda, shoulda, woulda is rarely a helpful plan for moving forward.


----------



## Ken555

b2bailey said:


> Coulda, shoulda, woulda is rarely a helpful plan for moving forward.



No, it’s not. But, it is a useful bit of info in determining what to do next time, or in other areas that may not be as hard hit. Clearly we didn’t learn from past experiences or else this wouldn’t have impacted us as hard as it did. Or do you reach some other conclusion?


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## Panina

b2bailey said:


> Coulda, shoulda, woulda is rarely a helpful plan for moving forward.


That is the problem that creates paralysis of moving forward, the blame game.  Today and tomorrow is what we have control of. The past shows errors made. Those can be analyzed later why the errors were made.  Today we have to plan on how to minimize the devastation Going forward


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## b2bailey

Ken555 said:


> No, it’s not. But, it is a useful bit of info in determining what to do next time, or in other areas that may not be as hard hit. Clearly we didn’t learn from past experiences or else this wouldn’t have impacted us as hard as it did. Or do you reach some other conclusion?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I believe there will be a time, somewhere in the future, when it will be appropriate to ask -- what could have been done differently/better.
To bring up that topic now is like looking in your rear view mirror instead of watching the stop light turn red.


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## Ken555

b2bailey said:


> I believe there will be a time, somewhere in the future, when it will be appropriate to ask -- what could have been done differently/better.
> To bring up that topic now is like looking in your rear view mirror instead of watching the stop light turn red.



I disagree, we can do more than one thing at a time... For too many years we have heard the refrain, now is not the time. Yet, we never seem to return to it in future and act upon the lessons learned. Sure, a formal investigation is likely to occur in future, but there’s little reason for us not to discuss it now. It’s pertinent, valid, and impactful on both how we address the current crisis (so we don’t repeat mistakes...which are still happening) and because we need to know the facts. If not now, when? 


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## CalGalTraveler

@DannyTS  So these meat packing workers never leave the plant? Those employees have families, they shop at local businesses and grocery stores, their kids attend school. The local paper has reported many businesses with infection. *Their own mayor asked to close down the town - not just the meat plant. *The CDC identified the town as the #1 USA hot spot for the growth of Covid-19 and sent a strike team to investigate.

I have tried to share how the odds work and why the CDC is so concerned but you continue to ignore and cherry pick data points to suit your arguments. We will agree to disagree.  Let's move on.


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## Panina

Ken555 said:


> I disagree, we can do more than one thing at a time... For too many years we have heard the refrain, now is not the time. Yet, we never seem to return to it in future and act upon the lessons learned. Sure, a formal investigation is likely to occur in future, but there’s little reason for us not to discuss it now. It’s pertinent, valid, and impactful on both how we address the current crisis (so we don’t repeat mistakes...which are still happening) and because we need to know the facts. If not now, when?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Whereas you have a valid point, the reality is the right now we in a horrible situation with an unknown path to successfully stay ahead of it.   The data we are gathering now might help us navigate and might not.  The data provided to us initially was wrong and the trust the world had in another country was wrong too.  Later we can deal with the how so much was ignored.. Now we have to take all energy and  create a path to contain this beast.


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## queenofthehive

b2bailey said:


> Coulda, shoulda, woulda is rarely a helpful plan for moving forward.


We still need to test, trace and isolate. I have been saying that over and over.


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## DannyTS

Social Distancing
*Sweden Says Controversial Covid-19 Strategy Is Proving Effective*


"Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist"







			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


----------



## Ken555

The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model”



> The government did not consciously design a Swedish model for confronting the pandemic based on trust in the population’s ingrained sense of civic responsibility. Rather, actions were shaped by bureaucrats and then defended after the fact as a testament to Swedish virtue.





> It is too soon for a full reckoning of the effects of the “Swedish model.” The COVID-19 death rate is nine times higher than in Finland, nearly five times higher than in Norway, and more than twice as high as in Denmark. To some degree, the numbers might reflect Sweden’s much larger immigrant population, but the stark disparities with its Nordic neighbors are nonetheless striking. Denmark, Norway, and Finland all imposed rigid lockdown policies early on, with strong, active political leadership.











						The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model” | by Hans Bergstrom - Project Syndicate
					

Hans Bergstrom explains why the country adopted a lethally misguided approach to COVID-19, resulting in a high death toll.




					www.project-syndicate.org
				





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## TravelTime

Ken555 said:


> The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model” | by Hans Bergstrom - Project Syndicate
> 
> 
> Hans Bergstrom explains why the country adopted a lethally misguided approach to COVID-19, resulting in a high death toll.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.project-syndicate.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



It is really too soon to say whether the Swedish model is working or not. However, if their case rate is about the same as the USA in the end, it will cause people to question why we shut down the economy for similar results. From what I have seen so far, their case rate is not much different and it beats Switzerland and Belgium, which are similar in size and way beats Italy and France. Death rate in influenced by many factors including how much testing has been done as well as age of population so that might not be a great way to compare. BTW, Europe is starting to open their economies after just a month of SIP/SAH. Denmark opened schools. Germany and Spain are opening some businesses. I think this is aggressive and I suspect the USA will go slower.


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model” | by Hans Bergstrom - Project Syndicate
> 
> 
> Hans Bergstrom explains why the country adopted a lethally misguided approach to COVID-19, resulting in a high death toll.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.project-syndicate.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


A lot of people would like them to fail. Who would want  a successful story that is against the main stream?

Yet, they are continuing on the same path. They are not stupid, uneducated or uninformed. They  have  strong social values, you can not make of case they do not care about people, young or old. They have universal health care. Their Healthy life expectancy is 4 years higher than in the US. 

When bashing Sweden, media do not seem to fathom yet that they are supposed to have more casualties at the beginning but less afterwards because more people would have acquired immunity. What matters more is total number of deaths *when this is over* not a snapshot of day 5 or 25. What also matters is if the health care system is not overwhelmed. And theirs does not appear to be despite what we were led to believe.  We shall see who laughs last. The article looks at numbers that are not important in this context to come to a predictable view. Among others, the death rate is so all over the place between countries, states and cities, registering the cause of death so ambiguous, that is hardly a measure of success or lack off.

I spoke today with someone from Goteborg and, for what is worth,  he was very happy with the approach of the government and according to him most of the population supports it.


----------



## Ken555

What some here seem to be missing is not the method or relative success of a particular country’s results, but the manner in which those decisions are reached. Are they successful in spite of their actions or because of them? Etc.


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> What some here seem to be missing is not the method or relative success of a particular country’s results, but the manner in which those decisions are reached. Are they successful in spite of their actions or because of them? Etc.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Very profound. In this context, what do you think about NY having one third of all cases in the United States.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> Very profound. In this context, what do you think about NY having one third of all cases in the United States.



I’ve already posted my opinion of New York. In sum, they’ve done some things correct and some things not, like most places. What is really concerning are those places doing almost nothing, like South Dakota.


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> I’ve already posted my opinion of New York. In sum, they’ve done some things correct and some things not, like most places. What is really concerning are those places doing almost nothing, like South Dakota.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


What has NY  not done correctly?


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> What has NY not done correctly?



Really? They delayed their state wide stay at home. Even a few days would have made a difference. 

Since you’re asking about NY, I assume you’re going to tell everyone what other jurisdictions did right and wrong as well, right? I suggest you start with DC.


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## Ken555

In Pursuit of PPE



			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2010025
		



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## DannyTS

very interesting interviews with 2 doctors


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## Ken555

PPE problems are a global issue. From Canada:









						Coronavirus: Edmonton doctor speaks out about personal protective equipment — Global News
					

An Edmonton doctor said she's anxious about going to work because of the personal protective equipment she is being given. The province maintains the masks are safe. Nicole Stillger reports.




					apple.news
				





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## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> A lot of people would like them to fail. Who would want  a successful story that is against the main stream?
> 
> Yet, they are continuing on the same path. They are not stupid, uneducated or uninformed. They  have  strong social values, you can not make of case they do not care about people, young or old. They have universal health care. Their Healthy life expectancy is 4 years higher than in the US.
> 
> When bashing Sweden, media do not seem to fathom yet that they are supposed to have more casualties at the beginning but less afterwards because more people would have acquired immunity. What matters more is total number of deaths *when this is over* not a snapshot of day 5 or 25. What also matters is if the health care system is not overwhelmed. And theirs does not appear to be despite what we were led to believe.  We shall see who laughs last. The article looks at numbers that are not important in this context to come to a predictable view. Among others, the death rate is so all over the place between countries, states and cities, registering the cause of death so ambiguous, that is hardly a measure of success or lack off.
> 
> I spoke today with someone from Goteborg and, for what is worth,  he was very happy with the approach of the government and according to him most of the population supports it.



Taiwan is doing very well. They have low cases and few deaths with 24 million people. They have been aggressive with their actions but they never shut down their economy. They might be a better to look at than Sweden.


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## Ken555

TravelTime said:


> Taiwan is doing very well. They have low cases and few deaths with 24 million people. They have been aggressive with their actions but they never shut down their economy. They might be a better to look at than Sweden.



There are very good reasons why Taiwan did so well, as compared to the rest of us. In brief they took it seriously, were prepared, immediately took action, pursued rapid testing, and watched their borders. By every metric, we failed in comparison and, worse, we politicized it. This is undoubtedly one of the, if not the, largest preventable failure in American history.



			https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-response-who-intl-hnk/index.html
		


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## TravelTime

Ken555 said:


> There are very good reasons why Taiwan did so well, as compared to the rest of us. In brief they took it seriously, were prepared, immediately took action, pursued rapid testing, and watched their borders. By every metric, we failed in comparison and, worse, we politicized it. This is undoubtedly one of the, if not the, largest preventable failure in American history.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-response-who-intl-hnk/index.html
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



Yes they did a lot right. They took over 100 actions to control the virus and they did not order its population to shelter in place or shut down schools, restaurants, stores and other businesses. As a result, Taiwan’s economy is not experiencing the same economic damage as countries under lockdown. They tried to warn the world early on and no one listened.

Here’s a list of all the actions they took. They were on top of this and did not listen to China when China was denying what was going on.



			https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/content_public/journal/jama/938448/jvp200035supp1_prod.pdf?Expires=2147483647&Signature=TqblGVjLDNbIm~4rscGM6Kak6iN4m-ONWtogkLG9v5u0T8oTnjDAsf0B3Sl~6V9LeiazowKyVJz~dh2TbO0-N8-GUFskmeC2n-DyD4xca4Oa-Miam9C9qRWAsaGmzCRgNqijPm~mg9JxwJz~B~p~jE7bIuFCo2lDcB-tlTBhmYAn~G2YHam62R07XVpPMkTclEPWs2wu8MXXTz0DnGaY3YF7HkvbtBz~9XHa7123ODS0G2ydZy8HTcF5ry7gOAylQHdU5LHWQftqnNRu3T-kBXzAMfvofohuaJyuujaP5rNb7Rm7u1uqwNbmBcmGBm~H47-6RG5cUL-oHFdv7jc1sA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA


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## Ken555

TravelTime said:


> Yes they did a lot right. They took over 100 actions to control the virus and they did not order its population to shelter in place or shut down schools, restaurants, stores and other businesses. As a result, Taiwan’s economy is not experiencing the same economic damage as countries under lockdown. They tried to warn the world early on and no one listened.



Exactly. We could have had a similar path had we listened to the experts early on, etc. It is extremely frustrating to see others do the right actions while we have people who not only didn’t believe it was real but actively worked to misinform.


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## TravelTime

Ken555 said:


> Exactly. We could have had a similar path had we listened to the experts early on, etc. It is extremely frustrating to see others do the right actions while we have people who not only didn’t believe it was real but actively worked to misinform.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I agree. I am feeling very angry when I read about how Taiwan tried to warn the world and everyone ignored them. They are not allowed to be a member of WHO due to China. Taiwan did everything right and had we taken similar measures, all of this could have been avoided in the US. Now we have more cases and deaths than anyone else with no end in sight and a destroyed economy. It really makes me angry!


----------



## VacationForever

Taiwan is a small country/much lower population when compared with US.  Hard to draw a parallel.  Also do not forget one party ruler is very different from 2 parties ruling the country.  Then you have Fed and State.  In a country like Taiwan, Singapore and S. Korea, it is much easier to execute without opposition.


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## Ken555

VacationForever said:


> Taiwan is a small country/much lower population when compared with US. Hard to draw a parallel. Also do not forget one party ruler is very different from 2 parties ruling the country. Then you have Fed and State. In a country like Taiwan, Singapore and S. Korea, it is much easier to execute without opposition.



I’m sorry, but these are just excuses. 

We could have been prepared. We were prepared for previous infections...as recently as <10 years ago. It was also completely predictable, so there’s really no excuse for not being prepared. We know where we failed. This was an epic fail, one for the history books. 

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## Ken555

Genetic tracing 'barcode' is rapidly revealing COVID-19's journey and evolution
					

Drexel University researchers have reported a method to quickly identify and label mutated versions of the virus that causes COVID-19. Their preliminary analysis, using information from a global database of genetic information gleaned from coronavirus testing, suggests that there are at least...




					phys.org
				






> Drexel University researchers have reported a method to quickly identify and label mutated versions of the virus that causes COVID-19. Their preliminary analysis, using information from a global database of genetic information gleaned from coronavirus testing, suggests that there are at least six to 10 slightly different versions of the virus infecting people in America, some of which are either the same as, or have subsequently evolved from, strains directly from Asia, while others are the same as those found in Europe.









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## DannyTS

"THE SUBWAYS SEEDED THE MASSIVE CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMIC IN NEW YORK CITY "

"Irony Along Eighth Avenue The Metropolitan Transit Authority’s decision to cut back its train service to accommodate the reduced demand may have indeed helped to shore up the agency’s financial position, but it most likely accelerated the spread of coronavirus throughout the city. That’s because the resulting reduction in train service tended to maintain passenger density, the key factor driving viral propagation{...} T*he agency’s decision to convert multiple express lines into local service only enhanced the risk of contagion* (Goldbaum 2020). *How ironic it is that the preferred policy would have been to run even more express lines.* We have not seen any public data on the incremental cost of the agency’s decision to begin to disinfect subway cars twice daily. Still, it is natural to inquire why the cars weren’t disinfected every time they emptied out of passengers at both ends of the line. The press has recently reported a significant number of coronavirus infections and deaths among front-line MTA workers. As of April 10, 2020, there were 50 deaths among 1,900 workers who had tested positive (Guse and Rayman 2020). Tragically, the counts of infected and fallen workers have continued to grow. By April 16, the MTA had reported 68 deaths among more than 2,400 subway and bus employees who had tested positive. “Another 4,400 are on home quarantine and thousands more are calling out sick.” (Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) 2020a) Data from TWU Local 100 indicate that the agency has 40,000 front-line transit workers (TWU Local 100 2019). That would imply a cumulative incidence of infection equal to 600 per 10,000, more than three times the rate of 180 per 10,000 reported in East Elmhurst (zip code 11370), the most affected hotspot in Figures 4 and 5 above. While the MTA announced on April 15 that it would begin its own testing of symptomatic employees, the agency’s workers had previously been directed to find tests on their own accord. “Nor has [the agency] offered any theories as to why the transit division’s workforce is suffering such losses.” (Rubinstein 2020) It is hard to imagine any plausible explanation for these workers’ losses except that their place of work was the principal source of their coronavirus infections. How ironic it is that unfathomable tragedy of these frontline workers turns out to be the clincher that transports us from correlation to causation. "



			http://web.mit.edu/jeffrey/harris/HarrisJE_WP2_COVID19_NYC_13-Apr-2020.pdf
		


It is interesting to underline the difference between NYC and other large metropolitan areas. This is an article about LA:

"LA Metro, the Los Angeles rail and bus transit system, is the third most comprehensive system in the entire USA, according to a study by the University of Minnesota.  Local online magazine _LAist_ describes it as technically the “best accessible” transit system in the country, while the city's integrated bus system is “robust” and “incredibly extensive”.

Yet, in a metropolitan area of 13m people, only about 360,000 people use rail on an average weekday, and just 855,000 ride the bus. To put this into context, in New York, with a population of 20m, approximately 5m ride the subway on an average weekday"



			The Los Angeles metro is great – so why aren’t people using it? | CityMetric


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## VacationForever

Ken555 said:


> I’m sorry, but these are just excuses.
> 
> We could have been prepared. We were prepared for previous infections...as recently as <10 years ago. It was also completely predictable, so there’s really no excuse for not being prepared. We know where we failed. This was an epic fail, one for the history books.
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


These countries can throw people in jail for violations and no one will protest. No one argues with their government's decisions or actions.  Try that it in US and we will have civil unrest.  In the US both parties are at each other's throats and then there is the news media. Freedom in US comes at a cost.


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## CalGalTraveler

Why the LA metro isn't great? It's because it doesn't go anywhere you want to go. Have anyone tried to get to UCLA on it? or from Westwood to the main train station or to LAX? It doesn't exist.

Despite the downsides, the NYC subway system is amazing. $2.75 will take you anywhere on the system. Stations on nearly every corner. The station agents are helpful and friendly (at least to me). When this is all over I will gladly ride it again.


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## Ken555

VacationForever said:


> These countries can throw people in jail for violations and no one will protest. No one argues with their government's decisions or actions. Try that it in US we will have civil unrest. In the US both parties are at each other's throats and then there is the news media. Freedom in US comes at a cost.



That has nothing to do with my earlier comments. Preparation would not impact freedom on any level and, in fact, extend it since stay at home orders would not have been needed and/or lessened. 


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## Ken555

CalGalTraveler said:


> Why isn't the LA metro great? It's because it doesn't go anywhere you want to go. Have anyone tried to get to UCLA on it? or from Westwood to the main train station or to LAX? It doesn't exist.
> 
> Despite the downsides, the NYC subway system is amazing. $2.75 will take you anywhere on the system. Stations and nearly every corner. The station agents are helpful and friendly (at least to me). When this is all over I will gladly ride it again.



Yeah, any article comparing NYC to LA re public transit that does not emphatically state that NYC is more usable simply isn’t to be trusted.

(But when the purple line is done Westwood will become accessible!)

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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Yeah, any article comparing NYC to LA re public transit that does not emphatically state that NYC is more usable simply isn’t to be trusted.
> 
> (But when the purple line is done Westwood will become accessible!)
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Regardless if you trust the article of not, it seems that many cities like LA might have escaped a big surge simply because their transit system is less used not because of their visionary actions. For sure NY closing many lines was a terrible idea in hindsight especially since a large percentage of the population depends on the public system.


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> That has nothing to do with my earlier comments. Preparation would not impact freedom on any level and, in fact, extend it since stay at home orders would not have been needed and/or lessened.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


If you were allowed to use that name on TUG, it would probably be on all your comments.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> If you were allowed to use that name on TUG, it would probably be on all your comments.



I’m not surprised you continue to deflect from my valid points. You push a theme and then when someone posts contrary facts, with links, you change the discussion. Now you try to make fun of a serious issue. I suspect you know better, as do others here who are now silent (or else they simply are tired of this thread, since we are all exhausted of this issue and for good reason...yet the problems remain and hopefully one day we may make improvements). 

Regardless, I hope we all can agree that we were not prepared and that we must do better for the next one. We know what must be done. As others have said, Taiwan did it by simply taking the risk of infection seriously.


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> I’m not surprised you continue to deflect from my valid points. You push a theme and then when someone posts contrary facts, with links, you change the discussion. Now you try to make fun of a serious issue. I suspect you know better, as do others here who are now silent (or else they simply are tired of this thread, since we are all exhausted of this issue and for good reason...yet the problems remain and hopefully one day we may make improvements).
> 
> Regardless, I hope we all can agree that we were not prepared and that we must do better for the next one. We know what must be done. As others have said, Taiwan did it by simply taking the risk of infection seriously.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


We can all agree nobody was prepared, on virtually all countries and most of the provinces, counties, states, cities. I am not trying to make fun of a serious matter, it is just that there are some that are not able to abstain to make it a political problem.

I think we can all agree this crises would be better managed going forward if we left politics out of it.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> We can all agree nobody was prepared, on virtually all countries and most of the provinces, counties, states, cities. I am not trying to make fun of a serious matter, it is just that there are some that are not able to abstain to make it a political problem.
> 
> I think we can all agree this crises would be better managed going forward if we left politics out of it.



I’m not so sure we can say that about Taiwan. From what I’ve read they were quite prepared since they took it seriously after they were hit with SARS. It may have helped that that experience wasn’t too long ago, as well. We may in fact do better for the next 10-30 years but then complacency will likely set in and we will again have politicians who say things like those departments aren’t doing any good and just cost money, etc etc. History shows this type of event repeatedly, and it doesn’t surprise me to see it happen here. 

And yes, of course, if politics were left out of it we would be much more productive. But then, this is true for most things.


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## pchung6

Ken555 said:


> I’m not so sure we can say that about Taiwan. From what I’ve read they were quite prepared since they took it seriously after they were hit with SARS. It may have helped that that experience wasn’t too long ago, as well.



It is probably Taiwan doesn't trust anything from China.  Another reason is probably because they are only country excluded by WHO.


----------



## Ken555

pchung6 said:


> It is probably Taiwan doesn't trust anything from China.  Another reason is probably because they are only country excluded by WHO.



So you think that because they aren't a direct member of WHO they increased their internal monitoring and preparation? From what I've read they have contact, though not direct and not as fast as other members (obviously this is not ideal). Other than possibly monitoring, I don't see how being a member would impact their level of preparation.


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> So you think that because they aren't a direct member of WHO they increased their internal monitoring and preparation? From what I've read they have contact, though not direct and not as fast as other members (obviously this is not ideal). Other than possibly monitoring, I don't see how being a member would impact their level of preparation.



From what I read, Taiwan had very good intelligence very early (December 2019). Distrusting China certainly played a role. Possibly not being part of WHO helped as well since a lot of countries relied on the official statements coming from WHO that proved to be nothing more than copy/paste from Chinese statements.


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## Panina

DannyTS said:


> From what I read, Taiwan had very good intelligence very early (December 2019).


And no one listened to them.


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## DannyTS

Panina said:


> And no one listened to them.


I do not think they shared that intelligence with the rest of the world.


----------



## Panina

DannyTS said:


> I do not think they shared that intelligence with the rest of the world. That is why it is called intelligence.


I do recall hearing they shared the information in December.  I cannot remember where I heard it or with whom they shared.  You would think if their intelligence picked it up others should have too,


----------



## DannyTS

Panina said:


> I do recall hearing they shared the information in December.  I cannot remember where I heard it or with whom they shared.  You would think if their intelligence picked it up others should have too,



Actually they did share it with WHO:

"The self-governing island’s officials have confirmed a previous report by the Financial Times claiming the WHO failed to pass on Taiwan’s warning about the contagious pathogen Covid-19 at the end of December. The warning was issued after cadres in Wuhan vehemently repudiated claims that a mysterious form of pneumonia was spreading among the city’s residents. They decreed that New Year celebrations and annual municipal conferences would proceed as scheduled. "









						WHO ‘refused to act’ on Taiwan’s virus alert
					

The Taiwanese government has said it sounded the alarm at the end of last year about possible human-to-human transmission of a new coronavirus when it first started to strike people down in the cen…




					asiatimes.com


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## pchung6

They shared the intelligent with WHO as below, but WHO decided to ignore this information.  If WHO listened and at least pass on the information to the world, things might at least be better now.


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## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> I do not think they shared that intelligence with the rest of the world. That is why it is called intelligence.



They did try to share information with the world but it was ignored. President Tsai just wrote an op ed in Time magazine and she said she wants to help the world. I wonder how many countries are taking her up on it now?









						President of Taiwan: How My Country Prevented a Major Outbreak of COVID-19
					

Here’s what the rest of the world can learn from Taiwan




					time.com


----------



## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> They did try to share information with the world but it was ignored. President Tsai just wrote an op ed in Time magazine and she said she wants to help the world. I wonder how many countries are taking her up on it now?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> President of Taiwan: How My Country Prevented a Major Outbreak of COVID-19
> 
> 
> Here’s what the rest of the world can learn from Taiwan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> time.com


I am more interested in what they told the world at the time


----------



## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> I am more interested in what they told the world at the time



Others have posted about that. You can google it. I know you like Fox News. Here is a link from Fox News (not my preferred info source).









						Taiwan releases December email to WHO showing unheeded warning about coronavirus
					

The World Health Organization (WHO) is under fire after Taiwan released the contents of a December email inquiring about the person to person spread of COVID-19, saying it was instead ignored by WHO and denied adequate information to fight the virus.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Ken555

C19 Timeline (this is obviously subject to change as new info is released):









						Timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020 - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> In the _Financial Times_ of March 20, 2020, "Taiwan said its doctors had heard from mainland colleagues that medical staff were getting ill—a sign of human-to-human transmission. Taipei officials said they reported this to both International Health Regulations (IHR), a WHO framework for the exchange of epidemic prevention and response data between 196 countries, and Chinese health authorities on December 31."[43].  According to Reuters, Taiwan's Centres for Disease Control chief Chou Jih-haw said that it has written to the WHO and China on 31 December, asking for information about the virus outbreak in Wuhan, including whether there were human-to-human transmissions. Chou claimed WHO confirmed the UN body had received the letter but did not respond to it.[44] WHO denied the organization ignored Taiwan's warning, stating "There was no mention in this mail of human-to-human transmission" in the communication from Taiwan.[45] Taiwan admitted the email did "not state directly and conclusively that there had been human-to-human transmission" and argued it had "strongly hinted" at the possibility[46] so that WHO staff "could discern from this wording that there was a real possibility". According to Taiwanese authorities, since "in China, the term 'atypical pneumonia' is commonly used to refer to SARS", the WHO should have inferred that human-to-human transmission was probable, especially since patients were being isolated for treatment, as was noted in their message.[47]


----------



## TravelTime

I think it is not too late to learn from the lessons of Taiwan on how to prevent a virus from spreading. Many of their actions could still be implemented in other countries now. If we ignored them before, I hope we will take up President Tsai’s invitation now to learn from Taiwan’s experience.


----------



## DannyTS

A simple email to WHO asking for information does not convince me that they did everything they could to alert the world.


----------



## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> A simple email to WHO asking for information does not convince me that they did everything they could to alert the world.



They did not really know for sure what was going on that early. I am grateful they tried to alert WHO. It was not their responsibility to alert anyone about their suspicions and no one believed them anyway. In hindsight, they were right but no one believed them or refused to believe them. We know that Taiwan is a very controversial “country” due to not being recognized as a country due to China’s claim on them. What else could they have done when they were not even sure what was going on yet? At least they took action in their own country to prevent the spread and it worked. Now they are offering to help others. This is great, IMO.


----------



## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> They did not really know for sure what was going on that early. I am grateful they tried to alert WHO. We know that Taiwan is a very controversial “country” due to not being recognized as a country due to China’s claim on them. What else could they have done when they were not even sure what was going on yet? At least they took action in their own country to prevent the spread and it worked. Now they are offering to help others. This is great, IMO.


I will try to find the article that said they had intelligence mid-December about what was going on in China. An organization like WHO probably receives thousands of emails a day. Who knows who read or did not read that email? Especially because of their status, probably WHO did not have any "obligation" to respond. Frankly, we also do not know what other communication they had with WHO prior to this, if they were considered a serious partner or not. I am not saying they are not, but of course politics play a role in every relationship with these kinds of organizations.

My point is if they knew for a fact that there was a serious problem that could lead to a million deaths worldwide, they could have done a lot more to alert the globe. They could have written an op ed in the Time at the time not now, they could have been on every channel in every corner of the world. 

In any case, your are right, we can all learn from their experience


----------



## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> I will try to find the article that said they had intelligence mid-December about what was going on in China. An organization like WHO probably receives thousands of emails a day. Who knows who read or did not read that email? Especially because of their status, probably WHO did not have any "obligation" to respond. Frankly, we also do not know what other communication they had with WHO prior to this, if they were considered a serious partner or not. I am not saying they are not, but of course politics play a role in every relationship with these kinds of organizations.
> 
> My point is if they knew for a fact that there was a serious problem that could lead to a million deaths worldwide, they could have done a lot more to alert the globe. They could have written an op ed in the Time at the time not now, they could have been on every channel in every corner of the world.
> 
> In any case, your are right, we can all learn from their experience



If you read the article, they did not know for a fact but they tried to warn based on suspicions. It was not their responsibility to warn anyone based on suspicions. They are not a member of WHO. It was political because of China. No one wanted to take Taiwan seriously because it would enrage China. Regardless, they tried. This is beside the point anyway. The point is that Taiwan had an excellent response for their own country that worked. I am just saying we should learn from Taiwan now. I am glad you agree we can learn from their response. That is all that matters now.

PS. If Taiwan had intelligence in mid December that China was hiding something, then let’s be even more pissed off at China and not blame the messenger for alerting us as early as they thought was reasonable.

PSS. Taiwan first took action in their own country on Dec 31, 2019. They sent the email to WHO around that time. You can’t expect them to warn the WHO before they actually had enough intelligence to suspect it was a real threat in their own country.


----------



## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> If you read the article, they did not know for a fact but they tried to warn based on suspicions. It was not their responsibility to warn anyone based on suspicions. They are not a member of WHO. It was political because of China. No one wanted to take Taiwan seriously because it would enrage China. Regardless, they tried. This is beside the point anyway. The point is that Taiwan had an excellent response for their own country that worked. I am just saying we should learn from Taiwan now. I am glad you agree we can learn from their response. That is all that matters now.
> 
> PS, If Taiwan had intelligence in mid December that China was hiding something, then let’s be even more pissed off at China and not blame the messenger for alerting us as early as they thought was reasonable.


Read the email, sent on New Year's eve, and you will see why it was easy to be lost in an ocean of modern information. I am not saying it should have been ignored but if this is all they did, sorry, not enough.


This was the email we are talking about:

"News resources today indicate that at least seven atypical pneumonia cases were reported in
Wuhan, CHINA. Their health authorities replied to the media that the cases were believed not
SARS; however the samples are still under examination, and cases have been isolated for
treatment.
I would greatly appreciate it if you have relevant information to share with us.
Thank you very much in advance for your attention to this matter.
Best Regards,"


----------



## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> Read the email, sent on New Year's eve, and you will see why it was easy to be lost in an ocean of modern information. I am not saying it should have been ignored but if this is all they did, sorry, not enough.
> 
> 
> This was the email we are talking about:
> 
> "News resources today indicate that at least seven atypical pneumonia cases were reported in
> Wuhan, CHINA. Their health authorities replied to the media that the cases were believed not
> SARS; however the samples are still under examination, and cases have been isolated for
> treatment.
> I would greatly appreciate it if you have relevant information to share with us.
> Thank you very much in advance for your attention to this matter.
> Best Regards,"



Danny, my friend, we should not be arguing about whether they sent an email or whether it was enough. The point is it was not Taiwan’s responsibility to act on suspicions. Now, we just need to learn from their experience.


----------



## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> Danny, we should not be arguing about whether they sent an email or whether it was enough. The point is it was not Taiwan’s responsibility to act on suspicions. Now, we just need to learn from their experience.


. 
OK, steering the topic: Taiwan is using electronic monitoring for 55,000 people under home quarantine. 
Is this to be applied in the US, to be expanded to everyone with a smart phone, to be used just when you travel, not to be used at all? Thoughts.


----------



## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> .
> OK, steering the topic: Taiwan is using electronic monitoring for 55,000 people under home quarantine.
> Is this to be applied in the US, to be expanded to everyone with a smart phone, to be used just when you travel, not to be used at all? Thoughts.



This is a great question. Thank you Danny for posing it. This brings up privacy concerns for me. But then we need to weigh privacy against public health. This is a tough one. I am guessing in the USA, it should probably be voluntary and we should get permission from those who are being monitored that it is okay to do.


----------



## Panina

DannyTS said:


> .
> OK, steering the topic: Taiwan is using electronic monitoring for 55,000 people under home quarantine.
> Is this to be applied in the US, to be expanded to everyone with a smart phone, to be used just when you travel, not to be used at all? Thoughts.


That will never happen in the US.  Lawsuits would happen immediately and it would become a political hot topic.


----------



## pchung6

DannyTS said:


> OK, steering the topic: Taiwan is using electronic monitoring for 55,000 people under home quarantine.
> Is this to be applied in the US, to be expanded to everyone with a smart phone, to be used just when you travel, not to be used at all? Thoughts.



I'm pretty sure we all already gave up our privacy over to google, facebook, amazon, etc. You ok with your privacy for commercial use, but not for public health?


----------



## CalGalTraveler

FYI...most people don't know it but Google has been tracking location for thousands of people for years via their cell phone. Open Google Maps and click on your timeline. It is legal because it is embedded in their terms of service.

If you haven't opted out it will show every place you visited domestically and internationally on each day (except for a some Asian countries which must have been blocked). It was eerie when I first found mine which showed every place I traveled since 2015 from dropping my kids off at school to traveling to Europe, Hawaii and beyond. I still opt in because it is the best way to track my business mileage. MileIQ misses a lot of business miles. I decided that I have nothing to hide about where I've been.


----------



## DannyTS

pchung6 said:


> I'm pretty sure we all already gave up our privacy over to google, facebook, amazon, etc. You ok with your privacy for commercial use, but not for public health?


It is different. If Apple misuses your private information, you are a filthy rich man (or woman).  When the bureaucracy misuses your information... well, it happens.


----------



## DannyTS

CalGalTraveler said:


> FYI...most people don't know it but Google has been tracking location for thousands of people for years via their cell phone. Open Google Maps and click on your timeline. It is legal because it is embedded in their terms of service.
> 
> If you haven't opted out it will show every place you visited domestically and internationally on each day (except for a some Asian countries which must have been blocked). It was eerie when I first found mine which showed every place I traveled since 2015. I still keep it on though because it is the best way to track my business mileage. MileIQ misses a lot of business miles. I decided that I have nothing to hide about where I've been.


you mean, you can see your own information, this is very different.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

DannyTS said:


> you mean, you can see your own information, this is very different.



Good point. But similar to Facebook I would be surprised if their lawyers didn't embed approval to use your personal info into their terms of service.


----------



## DannyTS

CalGalTraveler said:


> Good point. But similar to Facebook I am sure their lawyers embedded approval to use your personal info into their terms of service.


I know it is specifically banned in Europe


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## CalGalTraveler

Perhaps it is, but aren't we are talking about tracking Covid exposure in the USA?  I wouldn't mind having it on so I could be told if I came into contact with someone infected. I don't need to know their name but the location or time would be helpful.

BTW...Although Google Maps is pretty good, it still doesn't get it right all the time and definitely not accurate inside buildings other than to say you are an address.  They would have to use a different technology because it would not help someone in NYC who works in a high rise.


----------



## DannyTS

CalGalTraveler said:


> Perhaps it is, but aren't we are talking about tracking Covid exposure in the USA?  I wouldn't mind having it on so I could be told if I came into contact with someone infected. I don't need to know their name but the location or time would be helpful.


I will let others smarter than me debate this. I would be all for it if it is very limited in time, cannot be extended (for absolutely no reason), and if any privacy violation is punished by many years in jail.


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## CalGalTraveler

The other issue might be if one is infected, what incentive does one have to keep it on without being cast as an untouchable? That's the part where HIPPA privacy lawyers may get involved. It also might be very easy to "forget" their phone at home.


----------



## pchung6

DannyTS said:


> It is different. If Apple misuses your private information, you are a filthy rich man (or woman).  When the bureaucracy misuses your information... well, it happens.


If you are being quarantined and they want to track your location to protect the major public health only during your quarantine period, I don't see anything wrong with it. You don't have to agree and you have the choice to just leave the country immediately, right? 

Same thing with Apple, if you don't click "I Accept", your choice is to use something else.


----------



## DannyTS

pchung6 said:


> If you are being quarantined and they want to track your location to protect the major public health only during your quarantine period, I don't see anything wrong with it. You don't have to agree and you have the choice to just leave the country immediately, right?
> 
> Same thing with Apple, if you don't click "I Accept", your choice is to use something else.


what do you mean leave the country if you do not agree?


----------



## Ken555

> The Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles County could be up to 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.











						Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than reported cases
					

Global health officials question if antibody testing can accurately determine whether a person has any immunity to the disease.




					www.cnbc.com
				




It’s still too early in the testing (this is the result of only 863 tests) but this is about where I thought it was over a month ago (which I shared here), and why I’m still at home.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than reported cases
> 
> 
> Global health officials question if antibody testing can accurately determine whether a person has any immunity to the disease.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It’s still too early in the testing (this is the result of only 863 tests) but this is about where I thought it was over a month ago (which I shared here), and why I’m still at home.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


this also means that the actual mortality rate might be like the flu


----------



## Ken555

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020
					

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020




					wwwnc.cdc.gov
				






> From January 26 through February 10, 2020, an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVD-19) affected 10 persons from 3 families (families A–C) who had eaten at the same air-conditioned restaurant in Guangzhou, China. One of the families had just traveled from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. We performed a detailed investigation that linked these 10 cases together. Our study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> this also means that the actual mortality rate might be like the flu





			https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronavirus-leading-cause-death/?arc404=true


----------



## WVBaker

What are 'COVID toes?

What doctors said is most interesting about "COVID toes" is that they  appear in COVID-19 patients who don’t exhibit any other symptoms. Similarly, the loss of taste and smell was found to be associated with COVID-19 among otherwise asymptomatic patients by the American Academy of Otolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery and ENT UK in late March.









						What are 'COVID toes'? Doctors discover symptom of coronavirus mostly seen in kids
					

Doctors say what's most interesting about 'COVID toes' is that it seems to appear in coronavirus patients who don’t exhibit any symptoms.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## PigsDad

Ken555 said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronavirus-leading-cause-death/?arc404=true


I believe DannyTS was referring to the mortality *rate* of those infected, not pure numbers.  Since CV-19 is much more contagious than influenza, of course there are more deaths associated w/ CV-19.  But the mortality rate, given some of the new findings, could very well be close to that of influenza.  The article you referenced just speaks to the total number of deaths and nothing of mortality rates.

Kurt


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronavirus-leading-cause-death/?arc404=true



This is a very lucrative situation for the Washington Post's owner. Just saying. 

We will have to see more data, would you be surprised to see less cancer deaths than normal? What would explain that?


----------



## DannyTS

I guess we do not need any other tests, all we will do for the foreseeable future is Covid tests









						Quest, which has conducted 800,000 COVID-19 tests, to furlough some workers
					

Shares of Quest Diagnostics Inc. undefined were up 1.6% in pre-market trading on Tuesday after the diagnostics company said Monday it will let go of...




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## DannyTS

another point of view


----------



## TravelTime

Ken555 said:


> Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than reported cases
> 
> 
> Global health officials question if antibody testing can accurately determine whether a person has any immunity to the disease.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It’s still too early in the testing (this is the result of only 863 tests) but this is about where I thought it was over a month ago (which I shared here), and why I’m still at home.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



These results are very similar to the Stanford study done in Santa Clara County.


----------



## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> another point of view



Yes, the health care sector is struggling with the loss of elective surgeries and other government deemed non-essential services. I am in the health care sector and we had to close our office. We are trying to survive with telehealth sessions but many people do not like video appointments and calls for new clients have declined significantly. Mayo Clinic is furloughing, reducing salaries for remaining employees and stopping 401K matching for the rest of this year. There have been many articles over the past several weeks about how Covid-19 is hurting the health care sector and workers are getting laid off. Many doctors, dentists, therapists and others may not survive this crisis and for sure they are all hurting financially.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> Do you have an idea how many people who died last year were tested for influenza?







__





						Diagnosing Flu | CDC
					

About tests for diagnosing flu - CDC




					www.cdc.gov
				






> *Will my health care provider test me for flu if I have flu-like symptoms?*
> 
> Not necessarily. Most people with flu symptoms are not tested because the test results usually do not change how you are treated.
> 
> Your health care provider may diagnose you with flu based on your symptoms and their clinical judgment or they may choose to use an influenza diagnostic test. During an outbreak of respiratory illness, testing for flu can help determine if flu viruses are the cause of the outbreak. Flu testing can also be helpful for some people with suspected flu who are pregnant or have a weakened immune system, and for whom a diagnosis of flu can help their doctor make decisions about their care.


----------



## DannyTS

77,000 flu tests a year. 4 million covid tests so far in the US. Do you think you have a higher chance to be recorded as dying from flu or from covid? @DavidnRobin @Ken555


----------



## Ken555

TravelTime said:


> BTW, Washington Post is one of the best media in the country. Why would anyone try to discredit them?



Great question. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Karen G

A number of posts have been deleted and you all know why. Please take your discussions of a political nature to  private conversations if you wish to continue arguing and lecturing each other.


----------



## DannyTS

will others follow?

*Manitoba premier taking pay reduction as he looks for public-sector cuts during pandemic*
*Social Sharing

Brian Pallister says he is forgoing 25% of his base salary, which equals about 10% of total annual pay*
Dana Hatherly · CBC News · Posted: Apr 21, 2020 1:55 PM CT | Last Updated: 2 hours ago





Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister said Tuesday he is taking a 25 per cent cut in his base salary during the pandemic. After previously announced deductions and factoring in his extra pay, the cut to the premier's base salary announced Tuesday works out to about 9.8 per cent of the premier's total pay. (Jeff Stapleton/CBC)
51
 comments
Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister is taking a pay reduction of just under 10 per cent of his total pay, as he pushes for cuts in the province's public sector.
During a news conference on Tuesday, Pallister said he is forgoing 25 per cent of his $94,513 base salary as a member of the legislature while the COVID-19 pandemic continues.
Part of his pay reduction announced Tuesday — about seven per cent — is a previously announced wage freeze that Pallister and all other legislature members have accepted since 2016 on their base pay.




			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/pallister-pay-cut-pandemic-1.5539984


----------



## Ken555

FEDERAL DOCUMENTS: MORE THAN 300,000 LIKELY TO DIE IF RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED



> Federal health officials estimated in early April that more than 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 if all social distancing measures are abandoned, and later estimates pushed the possible death toll even higher, according to documents obtained by the Center for Public Integrity. Some outside experts say even that grim outlook may be too optimistic.











						Federal documents: more than 300,000 likely to die if restrictions are lifted
					

This article was published in partnership with NPR. Federal health officials estimated in early April that more than 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 if all social distancing measures are abandoned, and later estimates pushed the possible death toll even higher, according to documents...




					publicintegrity.org
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CO skier

Ken555 said:


> FEDERAL DOCUMENTS: MORE THAN 300,000 LIKELY TO DIE IF RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Federal documents: more than 300,000 likely to die if restrictions are lifted
> 
> 
> This article was published in partnership with NPR. Federal health officials estimated in early April that more than 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 if all social distancing measures are abandoned, and later estimates pushed the possible death toll even higher, according to documents...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> publicintegrity.org


Yeah, and 6 weeks ago, "models" predicted 1-2 million would die in the USA by now.  The real-life experience in Sweden suggests otherwise.


----------



## pedro47

The state of Missouri is suing China for causing the Coronavirus.


----------



## WVBaker

DannyTS said:


> 77,000 flu tests a year. 4 million covid tests so far in the US. Do you think you have a higher chance to be recorded as dying from flu or from covid? @DavidnRobin @Ken555


Given the current state of affairs, it seems no matter what you die from.... it's Covid-19!


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> FEDERAL DOCUMENTS: MORE THAN 300,000 LIKELY TO DIE IF RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Federal documents: more than 300,000 likely to die if restrictions are lifted
> 
> 
> This article was published in partnership with NPR. Federal health officials estimated in early April that more than 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 if all social distancing measures are abandoned, and later estimates pushed the possible death toll even higher, according to documents...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> publicintegrity.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


From the article:

"Federal health officials estimated in early April that more than 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19* if all social distancing measures are abandoned*, and later estimates pushed the possible death toll even higher, according to documents obtained by the Center for Public Integrity.  "


Who said that ALL social distancing measures should be abandoned? What is the purpose of this article?


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> From the article:
> 
> "Federal health officials estimated in early April that more than 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19* if all social distancing measures are abandoned*, and later estimates pushed the possible death toll even higher, according to documents obtained by the Center for Public Integrity. "
> 
> 
> Who said that ALL social distancing measures should be abandoned? What is the purpose of this article?



Just a few paragraphs later...



> The documents outline a range of scenarios for how bad the coronavirus crisis could get, without taking into account continued efforts to tamp it down. This type of model offers a baseline against which to weigh mitigation efforts. The documents say they don’t aim to predict the exact course of the pandemic, but rather to help government officials plan.



Many are calling for more transparency, and this is one of the first reports I’ve seen regarding the details of the models officials are using to make decisions. I would hope such transparency would be a goal for all of us.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## TravelTime

Coronavirus roundup: Did first Santa Clara County Covid-19 deaths happen a month earlier?



			https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/04/22/coronavirus-roundup-did-first-santa-clara-county.html?iana=hpmvp_sjo_news_headline


----------



## eschjw

The first known Covid-19 related death in America has now been confirmed as happening on Feb 6th in Santa Clara County, 23 days earlier than the previous known confirmed death in Washington State on Feb 29th. The confirmation of this death has only been made possible because the medical examiner sent an autopsy sample to the CDC.  There was very limited testing available at that time. Many Covid-19 related deaths have yet to be added to the total and many never will be because there is no sample to test.

The true mortality rate of this virus is probably much less than my home county which as of today stands as 12 deaths out of 124 confirmed cases.  Widespread testing, with an appointment and no doctor referral needed, just became available this week. There is a 24 hour turnaround on these tests and they are done in a lab set up in our county at Baylor school.

There are probably many people walking around with Covid-19 who don't even know that they have the disease. My WAG on the the real mortality rate is 1% or less nationwide and an infection rate much higher than previously estimated. While some people  joke about deaths being falsely attributed to the virus, I fail to see the humor.


----------



## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Many are calling for more transparency, and this is one of the first reports I’ve seen regarding the details of the models officials are using to make decisions. I would hope such transparency would be a goal for all of us.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



They disclosed several times the models they are following, I am surprised the author does not mention that. What we do not know yet is the data and all the assumptions all those models were using. I wish those organizations were more transparent about that.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

This will hopefully get the testing we need soon in SF Bay Area to remove SIP. It sounds like they will offer antibody tests as soon as they determine which tests are reliable.









						Bay Area coronavirus testing to soar with new Kaiser lab under construction
					

Kaiser Permanente, one of Northern California’s largest health care providers, is...




					www.sfchronicle.com
				




(I hope this is not behind a paywall.)


----------



## Blues

CalGalTraveler said:


> (I hope this is not behind a paywall.)



It is.


----------



## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> They disclosed several times the models they are following, I am surprised the author does not mention that. What we do not know yet is the data and all the assumptions all those models were using. I wish those organizations were more transparent about that.



Yes. They referenced the models they used, but did not disclose details. If you have details on this, please post it. 

Note this is from a non-partisan organization that had to go to some extremes to even get this info, since it was not originally publicly available. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## CalGalTraveler

Blues said:


> It is.


Sorry it is behind a paywall. I cannot copy verbatim but here is a summary:

Kaiser Permanente which is one of Northern California's largest health care providers is building a $14 million lab in Berkeley which will boost the system's coronavirus testing capability from about 1,200 tests a day to 5000 in early June.

- Kaiser serves 4.5 million members in N. Calif.

- If they can get ahold of more swabs and reagents that capacity could increase to 10,000 tests per day. Statewide about 14,500 tests are run a day.

- This will enable Kaiser to test more Kaiser patients without symptoms.  Which should help with widespread testing and contact tracing which could ease SIP requirements in the Bay Area.

- The lab will support Roche systems which can provide results in 24 hours.  Kaiser is also using Cepheid 45-minute tests in a few labs but not in medical offices because it has received too few test kits from Cepheid.

- Antibody testing is also planned but Kaiser is waiting for tests with better accuracy to be developed.


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## DannyTS

*There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns*
Comparing US states shows there is no relationship between lockdowns and lower Covid-19 deaths.

Full article on spiked-online.com


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## Ken555

> Spiked is owned by Spiked Limited, which is a company owned by Frank Furedi and Jennie Bristow. Funding has come from the Charles Koch Foundation and currently revenue is generated through donations and onsite advertising.



All I need to know.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> All I need to know.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


all you need to know?


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## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> all you need to know?



Yup. See the quote. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Yup. See the quote.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


if you do not agree with the article you are welcome to comment.


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## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> if you do not agree with the article you are welcome to comment.



I have zero interest in reading any publication sponsored by the Koch family.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS

When I pointed out that Washington post is owned by Jeff Bezos you did not like it. To be clear, I have a slight positive bias when it comes to Mr Bezos but I think it is fair to say that people can be influenced by their own wallets. Amazon is making a lot of money during this crises and his net worth increased 24 billion dollars since the world went into shutdown. Others may have as well so better one gets informed from more than one source (or one side of it). Read below an article in CNBC "Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks". Why Washington Post (and not only) was not interested in this story?


We may have all missed this:

*Covid antibody test in German town shows 15 per cent infection rate*










						Covid antibody test in German town shows 15 per cent infection rate | The Spectator
					

This morning we have some data giving a little more insight into the great unknown of the coronavirus pandemic: just how widely among the population has SARS-CoV-2 – the virus which causes Covid-19 – spread among the general population.    A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomised...




					www.spectator.co.uk


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## DannyTS

*Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks*

“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday[...]

Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus, and that “in a few weeks’ time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we’re seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more"










						Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks
					

Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible when the coronavirus hit. Now, it says its strategy appears to be working.




					www.cnbc.com


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## Maple_Leaf

CO skier said:


> Yeah, and 6 weeks ago, "models" predicted 1-2 million would die in the USA by now.  The real-life experience in Sweden suggests otherwise.


Sweden is an interesting control group to compare and contrast with the locked-down countries.








						The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy
					

Anders Tegnell talks to Nature about the nation’s ‘trust-based’ approach to tackling the pandemic.




					www.nature.com


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## Rolltydr

Ken555 said:


> I have zero interest in reading any publication sponsored by the Koch family.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I agree. Doesn’t that also make the post political since their purpose is to influence politicians?


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## Ken555

Maple_Leaf said:


> Sweden is an interesting control group to compare and contrast with the locked-down countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy
> 
> 
> Anders Tegnell talks to Nature about the nation’s ‘trust-based’ approach to tackling the pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nature.com



once again...









						A Mysterious Virus in Central China Has Infected Dozens, Raising Fears of a New Epidemic. Here's What to Know
					

Social Distancing Sweden Says Controversial Covid-19 Strategy Is Proving Effective   "Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist"...




					tugbbs.com


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## eschjw

Maple_Leaf said:


> Sweden is an interesting control group to compare and contrast with the locked-down countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy
> 
> 
> Anders Tegnell talks to Nature about the nation’s ‘trust-based’ approach to tackling the pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nature.com



Yes it will be interesting to see the final result. As the doctor said, while there will be more infections and deaths per capita than neighboring countries, they hoping for a higher degree of herd immunity as a result. How well this will work and how long that immunity might last is at best a wild guess at this point. He also admits that they underestimated the issues at care homes. Sweden, instead of locking down, is using *nudging* to drive home the need for their citizens to act in a socially responsible manner,

If you are interested in nudging, let point you to a book that I own called* Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness by Richard H. Thaler*. This is one of these "soft science" theories derided by many, but as a college sociology graduate, I find to be fascinating and quite simple. In fact much of what I learned in college sociology is just common sense.


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## Maple_Leaf

eschjw said:


> Sweden, instead of locking down, is using *nudging* to drive home the need for their citizens to act in a socially responsible manner,


ABC has an article describing in additional detail what Sweden is doing and the impact on life there.








						What life is really like in Sweden amid the coronavirus pandemic: Reporter's notebook
					






					abcnews.go.com


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## Ken555

Maple_Leaf said:


> ABC has an article describing in additional detail what Sweden is doing and the impact on life there.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What life is really like in Sweden amid the coronavirus pandemic: Reporter's notebook
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com



not much info here... but this was the best takeaway for me:



> Whatever the truth, there are a whole set of complex variables that mean it would be very hard for other countries to just "do what Sweden is doing." And they may, of course, have got it all completely wrong.


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## Ken555

In sickest COVID-19 patients, underlying conditions are common, large study finds









						In sickest COVID-19 patients, underlying conditions are common, large study finds — NBC News
					

High blood pressure, obesity and diabetes are risk factors for severe cases.




					apple.news
				






> People with obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure are at greater risk for complications from the coronavirus, according to a large study of patients hospitalized with the illness it causes.
> 
> The findings, published Wednesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association, confirm what physicians nationwide have noted anecdotally.


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## DannyTS

Maple_Leaf said:


> ABC has an article describing in additional detail what Sweden is doing and the impact on life there.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What life is really like in Sweden amid the coronavirus pandemic: Reporter's notebook
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com


the media uses the word "controversial" for any approach that is more relaxed while still based on the recommendation of the local scientists. I have to point out that all approaches are actually controversial including those that want everything shut down for months.


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## Maple_Leaf

eschjw said:


> Sweden, instead of locking down, is using *nudging* to drive home the need for their citizens to act in a socially responsible manner,


It looks like Sweden and Denmark are trying to nudge their film industries.








						Sweden And Denmark Set To Resume Film And TV Production Under New Coronavirus Guidelines
					

Sweden and Denmark are set to resume film and TV production with the recent curation of new industry guidelines.




					www.forbes.com


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## Ken555

Now that I’ve read an article showing that a recent poll only has 12% in favor of opening up the country soon, I’m going to stop worrying and stop responding to each of the economy first influenced posts in this thread. It seems most people do have some common sense after all, and we won’t (hopefully) go down the path of utilitarianism. Have a good and safe day, all!


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> It seems most people do have some common sense after all


it is not the first time your comments are less than flattering to those that do not agree with you.


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## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> it is not the first time your comments are less than flattering to those that do not agree with you.



How else would you interpret a poll that results in a 12% approval? No, don’t bother answering...this is rhetorical.


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> How else would you interpret a poll that results in a 12% approval? No, don’t bother answering...this is rhetorical.


I could tell you but that may sound condescending.


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## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> I could tell you but that may sound condescending.



You’ve already apologized once to me via PM for your posts and said you often post too quickly. I suspect that’s happening again. Please just stop.


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> You’ve already apologized once to me via PM for your posts and said you often post too quickly. I suspect that’s happening again. Please just stop.


I was trying to be nice, but when you post that only those that view the same like you have common sense.... 

Additionally, good manners, if they exist, should keep PMs private. Thank you. Talking about PMs and because you opened the door, you did not apologize so I am not sure who is supposed to be the bad person here.


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## Ken555

DannyTS said:


> I was trying to be nice, but when you post that only those that view the same like you have common sense....
> 
> Additionally, good manners, if they exist, should keep PMs private. Thank you. Talking about PMs and because you opened the door, you did not apologize so I am not sure who is supposed to be the bad person here.



Danny,

When 12% are in favor of something, that should tell you that those 12% may not be thinking correctly. Of course, the minority may be correct after all, but the likelihood is poor of that being the result. 

As for our PMs, I said nothing to apologize for...you did, you mentioned it, and you were sorry for it. I accepted it in good grace and we had a nice conversation. Your assumption that I should apologize is misplaced.

I will not reply to any further posts on this topic.


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## DannyTS

Colorado is also cracking the door

*Colorado’s new safer-at-home phase is not a grand reopening, Gov. Jared Polis says*
*Governor also says that extending stay-at-home order wouldn’t have made difference in severity of outbreak*










						Colorado’s new safer-at-home phase is not a grand reopening, Gov. Jared Polis says
					

State modeling showed that another two to four weeks under the stay-at-home mandate that expires Sunday wouldn’t cause a peak in COVID-19 patients to be any less severe, Polis said.




					www.denverpost.com


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## CO skier

Ken555 said:


> When 12% are in favor of something, that should tell you that those 12% may not be thinking correctly. Of course, the minority may be correct after all, but the likelihood is poor of that being the result.


*May 10, 1940: GERMANY INVADES WESTERN EUROPE*
The German Army invaded the Netherlands, Belgium, and France.

Q.  Do you think the United States should declare war on Germany and send our army and navy abroad to fight?

Gallup, May 18-23, 1940

7% responded "Yes"; 93% responded "No"


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## pedro47

I have deleted my post to reduce conflict.


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## DannyTS

Ken555 said:


> Danny,
> 
> When 12% are in favor of something, that should tell you that those 12% may not be thinking correctly. Of course, the minority may be correct after all, but the likelihood is poor of that being the result.
> 
> As for our PMs, I said nothing to apologize for...you did, you mentioned it, and you were sorry for it. I accepted it in good grace and we had a nice conversation. Your assumption that I should apologize is misplaced.
> 
> I will not reply to any further posts on this topic.


It is rare that only one side makes mistakes. Anyway, subject closed.

First one would have to see the questions. If the questions are like "do you think some or most measures should be in place if the situation does not improve?" I would probably be one of the 88%. The thing is, I do believe that a smart opening of the economy  is preferable to everybody hiding under the bed for the next 6 months and then what?

Secondly, 99% of the media is seeding  fear and panic. From this prospective I am surprised any poll about this is not 99%.

Can you please post the article or the details of the poll?


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## Ken555

CO skier said:


> *May 10, 1940: GERMANY INVADES WESTERN EUROPE*
> The German Army invaded the Netherlands, Belgium, and France.
> 
> Q.  Do you think the United States should declare war on Germany and send our army and navy abroad to fight?
> 
> Gallup, May 18-23, 1940
> 
> 7% responded "Yes"; 93% responded "No"



In all fairness, please aggregate all polls and post the result of how many (as a %) that were in the significant minority (<25%) ultimately resulted as being recognized correct. I think we all know the rarity of such results.

We all know of exceptions, and I even thought of the exact example you posted as I was drafting my earlier post. It's really a shame that we need to qualify everything we post in order to avoid this type of response. Or, are you really suggesting that we should let the (significant) minority among us make decisions for all? (If you do, please start a different thread, as that would be an interesting conversation all by itself...).


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## Rolltydr

pedro47 said:


> Richard, I need your help . There was a speech during today’s Presidential Washington DC Conference. A speaker gave a speech of *hope.
> He stated sunlight killed the Covid virus. Isopropyl alcohol  and Bleach Killed the Covid virus on surfaces. Do you know how I can find this text speech .
> It was given between 6:10 - 6:25pm today
> Richard, can you find and posts his remarks?
> Thanks for your help.*


Haven’t we known this? Isn’t that why I can no longer find those items in the store? Well, except for the sunlight. There hasn’t been much of that here today, either. :-(


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## Ken555

pedro47 said:


> Richard, I need your help . There was a speech during today’s Presidential Washington DC Conference. A speaker gave a speech of *hope.
> He stated sunlight killed the Covid virus. Isopropyl alcohol  and Bleach Killed the Covid virus on surfaces. Do you know how I can find this text speech .
> It was given between 6:10 - 6:25pm today
> Richard, can you find and posts his remarks?
> Thanks for your help.*



Has there been new reports on the claim sunlight kills C19? The latest I can find quickly online is from ~6 days ago:









						Coronavirus FAQs: Can Sunlight Kill The Virus? How Risky Is An Elevator Ride?
					

In this week's installment, we also look at how to handle that inevitable moment — you need a plumber or electrician or another repair person to come to your home.




					www.npr.org
				






> "Right now, there is no data on whether the UVA rays of the sun can inactivate this coronavirus," says Leon. However, research on SARS, another coronavirus closely related to the one causing the current pandemic, found that exposing that virus to UVA light for 15 minutes did nothing to reduce its infectivity, Leon says.



And, the WHO says sunlight does not kill it.









						COVID-19 Mythbusters – World Health Organization
					

Highlighting some of the misinformation circulating on COVID-19




					www.who.int


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## DannyTS

*Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer*










						Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer
					

Preliminary results from government lab experiments show that the coronavirus does not survive long under high-temperature, high-humidity conditions, and is quickly destroyed by sunlight, providing evidence from controlled tests of what scientists believed — but had not yet proved — to be true.




					news.yahoo.com


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## CO skier

Ken555 said:


> We all know of exceptions, and I even thought of the exact example you posted as I was drafting my earlier post.


It seems you want to "play both sides."

It does not matter.  Opnion polls are just a measure of mob thinking at any given point in time.  The majority opinion has nothing to do with what is "right" or "wrong" or "the truth."


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## pedro47

I have deleted my post to reduce conflict.
Good night.


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## Ken555

CO skier said:


> It seems you want to "play both sides."



Not at all. I simply mentioned that there are exceptions, and that I thought of the one you referenced (after all, it's likely one of the most famous of polls...).



> It does not matter.  Opnion polls are just a measure of mob thinking at any given point in time.  The majority opinion has nothing to do with what is "right" or "wrong" or "the truth."



If it did not matter, you would not have replied.


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## eschjw

Ken555 and DannyTS please don't burn up this thread with childish back and forth discussions between the two of you. If you feel offended, just PM each other and express those feelings. Both of you have provided useful information at times. Please continue to do so. This thread is a very useful resource for me.  Thanks, Joe Esch


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## Ken555

eschjw said:


> Ken555 and DannyTS please don't burn up this thread with childish back and forth discussions between the two of you. If you feel offended, just PM each other and express those feelings. Both of you have provided useful information at times. Please continue to do so. This thread is a very useful resource for me.  Thanks, Joe Esch



I've tried to stop the conversation repeatedly, but I refuse to let extremist perspectives stand as the last word. If no one else will comment, then I feel compelled to do so. If you consider this childish, I am sorry. I consider it essential.


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## Ken555

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS

Nearly All Patients Hospitalized With Covid-19 Had Chronic Health Issues, Study Finds (Published 2020)
					

Only 6 percent of patients at one New York area health system had no chronic conditions. Hypertension, obesity and diabetes were common.




					www.nytimes.com


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## Makai Guy

pedro47 said:


> I have deleted my post to reduce conflict.
> Good night.


THANK YOU, THANK YOU. THANK YOU!

Since others have not followed suit, this harangue has gone on long enough.  We're done here.


----------

