# Legacy week resales killed by Trust Points marketplace



## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

The life expectancy of legacy week resales will be measured by the birth of a Trust Points resales marketplace that is expected within the next 24-36 months.

Just as soon as this happens, resale of legacy weeks will be reduced to crumbs and prices will fall to the floor. They may be free at that point. 

Why?

1. Developer product for sale today are "Points only" based.
2. Legacy Resales will not be able to join DC
3. All future program enhancements will be Trust and DC only
4. Future resorts will be available to the Trust and DC on exchange only
5. Trust owners will get first pick on anything new
6. Strength of DC Points rental market will overcome legacy rentals in future
7. Trust points resales and rentals will be the highest value commodity
8. Points system "Exchanges" will become a reality and new usage option
9. European owners now get to play in DC further limiting Interval exchanges
10. Asian market will also have access to USA DC at some point

All the signs are there today as to where this is all headed.  After just 2 short years of DC enrollment, there are already multiple secondary markets for DC and Trust point rentals.  These rentals will only increase as more points purchases enter the consumer space.

The introduction of the DC and Trust points are the game changers.  *Within 5 years, the legacy week’s product will be relegated to the .99 cents store down the street.  Their only friend will be a crippled Interval International.*


This thread contains “forward-looking statements” which have not been confirmed and should be treated as purely speculative in nature, including statements about market trends, estimates, and assumptions including similar statements concerning anticipated future events and expectations.


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## thinze3 (Jun 28, 2012)

80% of all Marriott timeshares are already worth $.99.  Since the MF's escalate at a much faster pace than inflation and rental rates do, I can see a day at which they will all probably become a liability and not an asset.


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## Saintsfanfl (Jun 28, 2012)

thinze3 said:


> 80% of all Marriott timeshares are already worth $.99.  Since the MF's escalate at a much faster pace than inflation and rental rates do, I can see a day at which they will all probably become a liability and not an asset.



They already are a liability and not an asset. Even most of the premium weeks are selling for no more than the amount of 3 years of maintenance fees.


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## Saintsfanfl (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> The life expectancy of legacy week resales will be measured by the birth of a Trust Points resales marketplace that is expected within the next 24-36 months.
> 
> Just as soon as this happens, resale of legacy weeks will be reduced to crumbs and prices will fall to the floor. They may be free at that point.
> 
> ...



You sound like a DC points salesman. Your projection is based on Marriott not depositing excess Trust inventory into II. I don't buy it one bit. Sure for the best weeks that may be true but no way will Marriott sit on unused inventory if they can get some value for it.

Other Tuggers seem to think that Platinum prices will never be low again. I am somewhere in the middle of these contrasting forecasts.


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## chalucky (Jun 28, 2012)

Funny....I think the points are worthless


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## mstoyanov (Jun 28, 2012)

Well can you please point me where I can buy Platinum season in Aruba, Utah ski, Myrtle Beach and HHI (GO and Barony) or Maui 2BR for 3xMFs?
I will actually give you $500 bounty for any week that you can find me at these prices. Heck for most of these weeks I will give you bounty even if you find me one priced at 5xMFs.  



Saintsfanfl said:


> They already are a liability and not an asset. Even most of the premium weeks are selling for no more than the amount of 3 years of maintenance fees.


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## Saintsfanfl (Jun 28, 2012)

chalucky said:


> Funny....I think the points are worthless



No, they are less than worthless. $70k up front and $2,700 per year for enough points for Christmas week at Timber Lodge, or rent it on Redweek right now for $3,100. The difference is so ridiculous it's insane. For future new resorts there may not be a choice but on the existing and the here and now it's just silly.

Some would say the points have better value for the offseason, while this may be true it's still not comparable to other options. Yesterday I booked a getaway for a 2BR MGV for the September holiday week and it cost a total of $392. It would have cost 2,500 points.


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## Saintsfanfl (Jun 28, 2012)

mstoyanov said:


> Well can you please point me where I can buy Platinum season in Aruba, Utah ski, Myrtle Beach and HHI (GO and Barony) or Maui 2BR for 3xMFs?
> I will actually give you $500 bounty for any week that you can find me at these prices. Heck for most of these weeks I will give you bounty even if you find me one priced at 5xMFs.



Yes 3x is a bit of a stretch for those places.


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## thinze3 (Jun 28, 2012)

> Doesn't make sense if you will be able to buy a plat for .99 to use or rent, *which is why .99 on the best Plats will not happen.*




When Marriott's expensive Lahaina 2BR units get to $3500/wk for MF's (probably 6-8 years from now), and if rentals can still be had for $3500/wk, those units will essentially be worthless.

Fees can escalate very rapidly under certain conditions.  As more and more people stop paying MF's for their inferior weeks at resorts with multiple seasons, the burden get transferred to those who continue to pay their fees.

We have all been a little lucky the last couple of years because of depressed property valuations.  For example, my BeachPlace MF's have remained constant even though operational expenses have continued to climb.  The savior - lower property values, meaning lower property taxes.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

Saintsfanfl said:


> You sound like a DC points salesman. Your projection is based on Marriott not depositing excess Trust inventory into II. I don't buy it one bit. Sure for the best weeks that may be true but no way will Marriott sit on unused inventory if they can get some value for it.
> 
> Other Tuggers seem to think that Platinum prices will never be low again. I am somewhere in the middle of these contrasting forecasts.



Guess your OK with eating from the scraps that fall of the dinner table and make their way into Interval.  Others will want to sit and eat from the head of the table.

Have a look at the latest quarterly numbers on Points sales and make your own math and you will begin to see why the excess Trust inventory you will be waiting for at Interval gets less and less as the points monster called DC eats it all up before your eyes.

BTW: I'm not selling anything.  I just like to study what happens.....


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

Saintsfanfl said:


> You sound like a DC points salesman. Your projection is based on Marriott not depositing excess Trust inventory into II. I don't buy it one bit. Sure for the best weeks that may be true but no way will Marriott sit on unused inventory if they can get some value for it.
> 
> Other Tuggers seem to think that Platinum prices will never be low again. I am somewhere in the middle of these contrasting forecasts.



2. Legacy Resales will not be able to join DC - May not end up being true

We will see how many end up Joining with the cost of entry as $2395.

6. Strength of DC Points rental market will overcome legacy rentals in future - Impossible for a long time when so many points are required to book the best weeks. A 2BR for Christmas week at Timer Lodge costs 6,675 points. Do the math on that expense. Eventually when legacy is so old or mostly evaporates this will become true but not for a long while.

Your thinking process is too linear.  Why buy the points today when I can call a TUG friend who is enrolled and rent it from him for half the cost? And he can get me my reservation at 13 months out!

7. Trust points resales and rentals will be the highest value commodity - Doesn't make sense if you will be able to buy a plat for .99 to use or rent, which is why .99 on the best Plats will not happen.

Your still living in the past.  Who cares about the .99 cent Plat when the renter is looking to stay at a brand new partner resort in Italy only available from the Trust!  Who cares about the .99 cents Plat when the Trust Points renter wants 4 tickets to Walt Disney World and a nice golf package at the Faldo Golf Institute! 

*Its not what you can get today that matters!  Its what you will want in the future and can only get from DC and Trust Points that matter.*


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## gblotter (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Guess your OK with eating from the scraps that fall of the dinner table and make their way into Interval.


Puh-leze!

The predictions by the OP are pure speculation based on many future conditions that may not ever become reality.  And even if the conditions do come true, his predicted outcome is not assured by any means.

Do we really need trolls on this forum trying to stir up controversy with these provocative threads?


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

What you may feel as controversy others may find as interesting points of consideration and open for discussion.  That is one purpose of a forum.

One has to maintain an open mind if they are to accept new ideas and concepts.  This thread has no intention to promote any controversy.  It mearly represents an opinion as to factors that may influece the maketplace in the furure.  It was not written to seek anyones approval or disapproval either.

I look forward to opposing points of view!  I will certainly learn and adjust my thoughts on the subject matter as a result.  Thats valuable dialog IMHO!


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## Saintsfanfl (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Guess your OK with eating from the scraps that fall of the dinner table and make their way into Interval.  Others will want to sit and eat from the head of the table.



This sure sounds like the "I paid full developer prices because I can, and you are not worthy because you bought resale" argument. Yes, I am definitely ok with paying far less for a vacation. I would rather avoid paying commission and stockholder profits.

But after thinking more on it I hear your original point a little clearer now. I think the same thing ends up happening except the resale market will be for points instead of legacy weeks.


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## pipet (Jun 28, 2012)

Given how many people who either did not join DC or joined but are not converting to points, there are still a lot of people getting use out of legacy weeks.  While it's true that points may offer some great places to go to in the future, there are still a lot of very desirable places to go now with legacy weeks, and I don't see demand for HI, HHI, FL, and Caribbean beaches declining significantly.

It's also assumed by some that *everyone* with a half decent week joined DC.  This simply isn't true.  I have a HI week worth over 5k points but did not join.  I did not join for 3 reasons.  First, I would not save on fees but would end up paying more in annual fees than I currently do.  Waiohai, my developer week, has no lockoff & I frequently use it, and my other is only EOY.  My EOY is resale, so my entry cost was bumped to 1995, and that makes it even harder to justify; if I had an additional week, I might have considered for fee savings.  Secondly, I feel you can maximize points most by shoulder season travel or do Puck tricks with last min reservations, but with a school age child, I won't be able to do that for at least a decade.  If my situation changes, I can join for only 400 more than the original buy-in price (and if not, I'll figure out how to make the best of what I have).  The third reason for me is because even though I have a view week at my HI resort, I would NOT be able to exchange into a view week at another HI resort without borrowing from the next year in DC,  downsizing, or stealing points from my other week, so sadly, the DC offers me no value in exchanging above what I can get at II (I typically use HI for HI).  If I want to go to another Hawaiian island, I'll either do a private trade with another owner, or my week will still go in II. 

If I could take more vacation time, I would definitely consider another legacy resale week as I still see some value in the right week.  Developer priced DC points are just too pricey for what you can get for them, and resale DC points come with education fees & whatnot, and unless that changes, I'll avoid them as well.

So, there are really people that will still play in the weeks game, and as long as people do weeks, the valuable weeks at least will still have some demand.  The weeks that aren't very valuable already sell for $1 and nothing really changes there.  By keeping legacy resales out of the DC (or charging crazy fees to join/requiring a substantial DC point purchase), I think Marriott is guaranteeing that some will be in the weeks game.


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## mstoyanov (Jun 28, 2012)

I am sorry but that speculation is pure cr*p and I will explain to you why:
The only thing that can (and will) kill any product whether it is points,  weeks or any reservation currency is when maintenance fees  >= price to rent to same reservation. As of this moment DC points are almost WORTHLESS - why simple 1st they are not transferable with full benefits and 2nd it takes too much point to reserve prime reservations as in MF costs. For a lot of prime reservations cost of MFs of DC points is almost the same as what you can rent directly from week owners.
And it is not going to get better - Marriott used all kind a tricks in their sleeves to assure prime reservations availability in DC now but as more people become DC owners prime reservations (or the ones that are really worth paying point cost) will be very difficult to obtain.
Marriott had a chance to build great point system a la DVC for example - with home resort advantage and no skim. This chance is now DEAD and will not come back, they missed that opportunity and lost tons of goodwill from huge owner base.

I will give you another example from another point system (Wyndham where there is no skim). Currently 2BR fixed week in prime summer in Wyndham resorts in Newport, RI can fetch ~$5k resale on the secondary market while the equivalent Wyndham points package with even better MFs is almost free on the same market. Why - reason is simple regardless of how many Wyndham points you have you can not reserve summer week in these resort since there is no availability while fixed weeks can be easily rented above the MFs.
It is true that most fixed week in Wyndham are also worthless but that is because these weeks never had a lot of value in the first place (as in rental price was not much above MFs).

The same will be true for Marriott fixed weeks - prime weeks that rent for multiple MFs will always be valuable for as long as they can generate a good profit. DC point system starts at much worse reservation cost for prime reservations at many places so it will be difficult to compensate that with "flexibility" of the points.

"Exchange value" for timeshares is almost always much less than "use value" since "exchange value" is subject to much more easier rule changes while "use value" is almost totally dependent on (rental-MF) differential.
2 Notable exceptions to this rule are Westin Kierland in Starwood system (most value comes as most economical mandatory SVN exchanger) and Worldmark as a powerful and economic exchanger in II.



FractionalTraveler said:


> .
> 
> Just as soon as this happens, resale of legacy weeks will be reduced to crumbs and prices will fall to the floor. They may be free at that point.


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## jdunn1 (Jun 28, 2012)

It’s never my intention to be mean to anyone on these boards, but I hate when people use TUG for this very purpose.  The guy who started this thread is on a very slippery slope in my opinion.  It’s a very mean spirited post.   Why would you start a post which essentially says ’MVC week owners are losers but you know who are winners, people like me who own what you don’t’. 

This guy has posted stuff like this before and now he is starting again.  Now this post is going to be at the top of the Marriott board for a few days with lots of mean spirited jabs back and forth.  Pointless!!!


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## mstoyanov (Jun 28, 2012)

Regardless of his intentions I think it is better to kill his weak arguments with better arguments rather than trying to guess his motives.
So lets fight the ideas not the person. 



jdunn1 said:


> It’s never my intention to be mean to anyone on these boards, but I hate when people use TUG for this very purpose.  The guy who started this thread is on a very slippery slope in my opinion.  It’s a very mean spirited post.   Why would you start a post which essentially says ’MVC week owners are losers but you know who are winners, people like me who own what you don’t’.
> 
> This guy has posted stuff like this before and now he is starting again.  Now this post is going to be at the top of the Marriott board for a few days with lots of mean spirited jabs back and forth.  Pointless!!!


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## infamazz (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> This thread contains “forward-looking statements” which have not been confirmed and should be treated as purely speculative in nature, including statements about market trends, estimates, and assumptions including similar statements concerning anticipated future events and expectations.



When it comes to a public company like MVCI, employees have to make these disclaimers prior to making public statements. This is a pretty boilerplate disclosure, which leads me to believe that FractionalTraveler is actually a MVCI employee. Either that or he was just joking around.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

jdunn1 said:


> It’s never my intention to be mean to anyone on these boards, but I hate when people use TUG for this very purpose.  The guy who started this thread is on a very slippery slope in my opinion.  It’s a very mean spirited post.   Why would you start a post which essentially says ’MVC week owners are losers but you know who are winners, people like me who own what you don’t’.
> 
> This guy has posted stuff like this before and now he is starting again.  Now this post is going to be at the top of the Marriott board for a few days with lots of mean spirited jabs back and forth.  Pointless!!!



I'm sorry to hear you think I'm a mean person based upon your interpretation of my post.

I would love to hear your opinons on the merit of the 10 items presented in the post.  If you feel they warrant no merit and provide some of your reasons why, I find that valuable.

You have obviously been biased to conclude that just because someone owns something that they are trying to sell it to others (ideas, concepts, products, etc.) and that there is some deep dark motive for even posting this thread. 

Regardless, THANK YOU for posting!


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

mstoyanov said:


> Regardless of his intentions I think it is better to kill his weak arguments with better arguments rather than trying to guess his motives.
> So lets fight the ideas not the person.



++++1 You hit the nail on the head.  Thats good.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

infamazz said:


> When it comes to a public company like MVCI, employees have to make these disclaimers prior to making public statements. This is a pretty boilerplate disclosure, which leads me to believe that FractionalTraveler is actually a MVCI employee. Either that or he was just joking around.



You make me feel bad.  I thought I tailored the statement quite well.  Guess I should have tried harder to personalize it a bit more for your enjoyment.


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## pipet (Jun 28, 2012)

Wow, this post is causing more controvery that I would figure, but I think it's mostly from how *assertive* Fractional is.  Really, most of this is relatively non-controversial.



FractionalTraveler said:


> 1. Developer product for sale today are "Points only" based.
> 2. Legacy Resales will not be able to join DC
> 3. All future program enhancements will be Trust and DC only
> 5. Trust owners will get first pick on anything new
> ...


None of there are terribly controversial. Possibly there may be a way for legacy to join in the future (with the purchase of pts) but that is speculation.  I agree Marriott will eventually figure out a way for Asian markets to participate, just as Europe was added in.



FractionalTraveler said:


> 4. Future resorts will be available to the Trust and DC on exchange only


Likely to be true if there are not new purpose-built timeshares.  Anything that goes in II will be available for weeks players.  Weeks players can also rent points if they desperately want to go to that "brand new partner resort in Italy," but remember, many weeks owners will still want to go to HHI, HI, etc.



FractionalTraveler said:


> 6. Strength of DC Points rental market will overcome legacy rentals in future


I think this is 100% dependent on the cost.  In some cases, point rental is cheaper than a week rental, but in other cases a week rental is cheaper than a point rental (depends on MFs)



FractionalTraveler said:


> 7. Trust points resales and rentals will be the highest value commodity


See # 6 for rentals.  As for trust point resales, some serious changes will have to happen for these to be viable for buyers.  The education fee alone makes buying resale only an option for high point packages, and with that kind of buy in, why not purchase a beach/ski plat week on the resale market that you can use or rent for more than MFs?



FractionalTraveler said:


> 9. European owners now get to play in DC further limiting Interval exchanges


  European summer weeks in Spain were already hard to get in II, and that likely won't change significantly as these are very popular with owners.  Will DC alone change European travel patterns?

And this statement:


> call a TUG friend who is enrolled and rent it from him for half the cost? And he can get me my reservation at 13 months out!


really only applies IMO to people with legacy weeks who've joined DC *and* the MF/DC ratio is favorable.  For new DC point purchasers, renting out points at 50c/per is a HUGE loss if you factor in the massive buy in cost.

I agree with mstoyanov that's it's all about costs vs MFs.  A good look at the charts will reveal that some weeks are not economical to book with points.  If anything, the DC made these weeks more valuable on the resale market for those that want those weeks on a frequent basis.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

chalucky said:


> Funny....I think the points are worthless



We will see what happens in the next few years.  Marriott has bet their entire company on the sale and use of a points system.

What is nice about them being a public company is that they have to be transparent to a certain degree with there financial statements.  This way we can monitor performance and see if these points are really that crappy as some may stipulate.

I own trust points and they have some advantage but they also come with lots of limitations as well.


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## Saintsfanfl (Jun 28, 2012)

infamazz said:


> When it comes to a public company like MVCI, employees have to make these disclaimers prior to making public statements. This is a pretty boilerplate disclosure, which leads me to believe that FractionalTraveler is actually a MVCI employee. Either that or he was just joking around.



I agree and I don't think he is just joking around. If you notice he jumps in quite a few threads of people asking questions or needing clarifications on Marriott issues. His answers sure seems like customer service answers veiled in a cloak. He also quickly questions claims where the post describes something that is contrary to Marriott policy. He defends points as being the best and only thing worth living for and shuns the resale market. He is on here posting regularly during working hours. If he doesn't work for Marriott I would be very surprised. 

One claim of his that seemed very strange though is that he said he not only was allowed to be a day user at MGV, he also received a wrist band and a parking pass on one occasion. I had already asked on the phone but I stopped by there yesterday and asked again. According to them they do not allow day use of any kind and they never have. That would be an indication that he does not work for Marriott because if he had a special perk I don't think he would tout it here as being available for all.


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## Saintsfanfl (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> We will see what happens in the next few years.  Marriott has bet their entire company on the sale and use of a points system.
> 
> What is nice about them being a public company is that they have to be transparent to a certain degree with there financial statements.  This way we can monitor performance and see if these points are really that crappy as some may stipulate.
> 
> I own trust points and they have some advantage but they also come with lots of limitations as well.



As new resorts age, maintenance fees will go up. The longer the points system goes on the less valuable it becomes because the average "unit" age increases. Eventually you have the trust full of 20+ year old resorts. What would be the big selling point of a new resort when tens of thousands of "old" DC Point members can book there too?

The Point system was perfect for a flailing economy. When things are booming again a brand new luxury resort will have a far greater sales value by being exclusive. Marriott will eventually pull the rug from under the DC point system. Marriott didn't become a successful company by selling watered down points to resorts that nobody wants to visit. We are far from there yet but eventually it will happen.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

mstoyanov said:


> I am sorry but that speculation is pure cr*p and I will explain to you why:
> The only thing that can (and will) kill any product whether it is points,  weeks or any reservation currency is when maintenance fees  >= price to rent to same reservation. As of this moment DC points are almost WORTHLESS - why simple 1st they are not transferable with full benefits and 2nd it takes too much point to reserve prime reservations as in MF costs. For a lot of prime reservations cost of MFs of DC points is almost the same as what you can rent directly from week owners.
> And it is not going to get better - Marriott used all kind a tricks in their sleeves to assure prime reservations availability in DC now but as more people become DC owners prime reservations (or the ones that are really worth paying point cost) will be very difficult to obtain.
> Marriott had a chance to build great point system a la DVC for example - with home resort advantage and no skim. This chance is now DEAD and will not come back, they missed that opportunity and lost tons of goodwill from huge owner base.
> ...



Good argument and counter without any drama!


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

Saintsfanfl said:


> As new resorts age, maintenance fees will go up. The longer the points system goes on the less valuable it becomes because the average "unit" age increases. Eventually you have the trust full of 20+ year old resorts. What would be the big selling point of a new resort when tens of thousands of "old" DC Point members can book there too?
> 
> The Point system was perfect for a flailing economy. When things are booming again a brand new luxury resort will have a far greater sales value by being exclusive. Marriott will eventually pull the rug from under the DC point system. Marriott didn't become a successful company by selling watered down points to resorts that nobody wants to visit. We are far from there yet but eventually it will happen.



I agree!  The products being sold today (i.e. DC & Trust Points) will have to evolve into other things in order to keep the business viable.

But isn't that the same as in any other company?  Many in the business environment repeat the saying *"Innovate or Die".*

The same with people in the workplace.  You always have to maintain your training and constantly be re-inventing yourself in the business world in order to stay relevant.

It’s human nature to always be comparing the old to the new and say how great it used to be!  I'm not so sure this adage always applies.

We always say, well that week in HHI cost me X dollars and if I wanted that week now I would have to pay 5X dollars in point equivalents. So therefore the points system is flawed.

What about the 25 year old recently married couple who was never able to justify $25K spends on a full week?  They may be perfectly happy buying 1500 trust points for around $15K and get that weekend escape they were looking for.  They can always add points later as their lifestyle and financial resources allowed.  That is flexibility.

Maybe that is what the points system is about "Flexibility" and maybe it wasn't designed for legacy owners at all.

Maybe it was conceived within the reality of a post-recession world and we as legacy owners refuse to accept that reality and just want to go back to the way things used to be. Oh, that’s Human nature getting in the way again, duh....


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## hotcoffee (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> . . . Marriott has bet their entire company on the sale and use of a points system. . . .



This statement is definitely true.  They will never go back to weeks now.  All future enhancements will likely be to DC.  Of course, if the economy gets worse, it won't matter much whether you joined DC or not.


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## SueDonJ (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> ... Maybe that is what the points system is about "Flexibility" and maybe it wasn't designed for legacy owners at all.
> 
> Maybe it was conceived within the reality of a post-recession world and we as legacy owners refuse to accept that reality and just want to go back to the way things used to be. Oh, that’s Human nature getting in the way again, duh....



It was conceived years ago if you believe some of the reports made to TUG by folks who had legitimate contacts within Marriott.  It certainly wasn't developed as a knee-jerk reaction to the recession or as a business-saving measure in the post-recession world.  Disney, DVC, was a front-runner in developing and marketing a points-based timeshare program - Marriott and others had been watching from the sidelines for years while DVC proved the viability of a flexible system that folks could buy into for less than the ever-increasing costs (for both developers and Owners, btw) of new Weeks-based resorts.

I don't think it was designed to entice or satisfy every existing Weeks owner.  But I do think it was designed to be attractive to Owners of certain high-demand Weeks, because they need those Owners to participate in order to fuel the availability engine for Trust Points purchasers.


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## Saintsfanfl (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> What about the 25 year old recently married couple who was never able to justify $25K spends on a full week?  They may be perfectly happy buying 1500 trust points for around $15K and get that weekend escape they were looking for.  They can always add points later as their lifestyle and financial resources allowed.  That is flexibility. duh....



Why should they spend $15K on points when they can get a resale for free or close to it? Heck, an Ocean Pointe silver week cost little more than $1k with closing costs included and it would cost 4,225 points to book some of those silver weeks! To say it would be wiser for them to spend $15k, which could only get them a Studio for a week during low demand, than spend $1k which would get them a 2BR during high demand, shoots down any shred of credibility you had remaining (which wasn't much).

"That is flexibility" you say? No, for a recently married couple that would be stupidity (or in most cases ignorance and gullibility).

Come on man, enough already. Buying points retail only makes sense for Marriott's profitability.


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## SueDonJ (Jun 28, 2012)

Saintsfanfl said:


> Why should they spend $15K on points when they can get a resale for free or close to it? Heck, an Ocean Pointe silver week cost little more than $1k with closing costs included and it would cost 4,225 points to book some of those silver weeks! To say it would be wiser for them to spend $15k, which could only get them a Studio for a week during low demand, than spend $1k which would get them a 2BR during high demand, shoots down any shred of credibility you had remaining (which wasn't much).
> 
> "That is flexibility" you say? No, for a recently married couple that would be stupidity (or in most cases ignorance and gullibility).
> 
> Come on man, enough already. Buying points retail only makes sense for Marriott's profitability.



I agree that if the Weeks-based timeshare model works for someone's vacation needs, then picking up an external resale makes more economic sense than buying into the new Points system.  But if you consider the flexible usage options - any day check-ins, any number of nights, any available resort, smaller buy-in costs with banking and borrowing capability - then a Points system is more attractive to some people.  If that flexibility is what a Marriott buyer wants, then the direct-purchase of DC Points is at this time more "safe" than an external resale of DC Points.  Down the line that should change once we've fleshed out all the intricacies and costs associated with external Points resales, but right now IMO there are still legitimate concerns with buying Points resales.

It still all comes down to, there is no one right or wrong way to buy or use timeshares.  Take a look at all your options and then decide which system/purchase works best for you.  If your vacation budget easily absorbs the purchase, nobody can say You're Doing It Wrong.


----------



## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

Saintsfanfl said:


> Why should they spend $15K on points when they can get a resale for free or close to it? Heck, an Ocean Pointe silver week cost little more than $1k with closing costs included and it would cost 4,225 points to book some of those silver weeks! To say it would be wiser for them to spend $15k, which could only get them a Studio for a week during low demand, than spend $1k which would get them a 2BR during high demand, shoots down any shred of credibility you had remaining (which wasn't much).
> 
> "That is flexibility" you say? No, for a recently married couple that would be stupidity (or in most cases ignorance and gullibility).
> 
> Come on man, enough already. Buying points retail only makes sense for Marriott's profitability.



Your points are rational and I tend to agree except that my 22 year old daughter tells me that her generation loves and prefers to go on multiple 3-4 day max weekend trips with friends rather than spend 1 week alone where none of her friends can get the time off or can coordinate their schedules.

She constantly tells me that weeks thing is for old retired people.  Rightly or wrongly she may be echoing the current thinking of her generation.


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## sb2313 (Jun 28, 2012)

*Kids*

My wife and I are definitely your daughters generation and we couldn't disagree more. That model may work in college/right afterwards but things change as soon as kids come along. Our generation likes the week long model quite well, who wants to pack up the kids for a 3 night stay that involves any type of flight/TSA hassles, ect- not worth it(there are exceptions of course, but I'm talking on a regular basis!). In my/my friends' opinions.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

SueDonJ said:


> It was conceived years ago if you believe some of the reports made to TUG by folks who had legitimate contacts within Marriott.  It certainly wasn't developed as a knee-jerk reaction to the recession or as a business-saving measure in the post-recession world.  Disney, DVC, was a front-runner in developing and marketing a points-based timeshare program - Marriott and others had been watching from the sidelines for years while DVC proved the viability of a flexible system that folks could buy into for less than the ever-increasing costs (for both developers and Owners, btw) of new Weeks-based resorts.
> 
> I don't think it was designed to entice or satisfy every existing Weeks owner.  But I do think it was designed to be attractive to Owners of certain high-demand Weeks, because they need those Owners to participate in order to fuel the availability engine for Trust Points purchasers.



Good points on the historical perspective!  So can we sum up all this drama to people not adapting very well to change to some respect?

Others have posted about the differences between DVC points system and Marriott but if most all other major players in the marketplace have now moved to points then maybe we should spend time discussing the relative merits of each of the points systems instead of reminiscing about why someone should join or not.


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## Saintsfanfl (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Your points are rational and I tend to agree except that my 22 year old daughter tells me that her generation loves and prefers to go on multiple 3-4 day max weekend trips with friends rather than spend 1 week alone where none of her friends can get the time off or can coordinate their schedules.
> 
> She constantly tells me that weeks thing is for old retired people.  Rightly or wrongly she may be echoing the current thinking of her generation.



Who said you are required to stay for the entire legacy week? In most cases it's still cheaper than points *even if you only stay 3 or 4 days!*


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## jme (Jun 28, 2012)

jdunn1 said:


> It’s never my intention to be mean to anyone on these boards, but I hate when people use TUG for this very purpose.  The guy who started this thread is on a very slippery slope in my opinion.  It’s a very mean spirited post.   Why would you start a post which essentially says ’MVC week owners are losers but you know who are winners, people like me who own what you don’t’.
> 
> This guy has posted stuff like this before and now he is starting again.  Now this post is going to be at the top of the Marriott board for a few days with lots of mean spirited jabs back and forth.  Pointless!!!



Great points, and AGREED.

Have no fear....We legacy owners are not all idiots, and never have been. Many like me bought to "occupy" from the very beginning, so we're "out" nothing, and the future looks exactly the same as it did when we bought. The DC has only added possibilities, and has removed nothing.  The value of a week to me has not dropped to $0.99, either......in my world the value of a week's stay is still a week's stay, and actually has no monetary value associated with it at all-----it's simply "a week of vacation" that's paid for, and there's no point in my viewing it any differently.  I imagine many would love to have my weeks too, but TS.....I want them.    

I enrolled my weeks and have 17,800 legacy points available. I do know I'm never going to purchase trust points----then I WOULD be an idiot. So, good for me.  I'll still do what I want with my weeks, my legacy points, and my Rewards Points , and won't have to settle for anything inferior. There will be ways to get anywhere we want to go......new resorts or not.  I have a multitude of options, and I am delighted with what I have open to me....believe me, I won't suffer.  

And I'm not distraught over the "prognostications" of this know-it-all.  He has no clue as to what will happen. His case is a worst-case scenario, and I see it as highly suspect. So, he likes to study these things?.....yet his analysis is nothing but speculation. 

As we all know by now, the sales of DC trust points is not nearly what Marriott hoped for. Bottom line, many many (actually the majority) of Marriott legacy owners have not been affected.......They "keep on doing what they're doing"------and I'm sure they still love visiting their resorts. I talked to several other owners at Grande Ocean over the past 3 weeks during our stay, and no one seemed to be unsettled with the fact that they had no intentions of getting into the trust point system.

This doomsday mentality would have us, on the day of purchasing a new car,  wringing our hands and gnashing our teeth over the ensuing minute-by-minute depreciation of the vehicle for the following 7 years. My gosh, man, just enjoy the vehicle and forget the resale price.......it's going down no matter what. And there will be ways to get where we want to go regardless---just wait and see. 

We alone have GUARANTEED weeks we can book at resorts we love, and YOU are the ones who are trying desperately to get them. Good luck. The cost to do so just might be the equivalent of "purchasing developer" which is so scoffed at today. 

And.....If obtaining a "special package" add-on to a vacation (as described by OP in post # 11) as a result of being a DC Trust member is worth paying $45,000, then go for it. To tell the truth, I'm loving where I'm sitting. I can purchase 4 Disney tickets a lot cheaper than that. And, after paying the piper, the maintenance fees for the points are ridiculous.......it's much more absurd to me than the old buy-from-developer plan. 

I trade a week or two every year with my "play" weeks, and I'm extremely happy with the results----we have NEVER once gotten anything less than exactly what we requested, and we only submit very limited and restricted requests for the best resorts (even European), not a broad range of times and a long list of resorts. I'm confident the future won't change much for us....perhaps it will be for the better. I consider the OP's post a bunch of..........hysteria. I would list a multitude of reasons, but it wouldn't convince him anyway.... and besides, others will chime in. Even if he's right, and becomes the second coming of Nostradamus, it won't affect me one little bit. 

I accept his later post (self-described) as a means of "promoting dialogue", (and hey, that has surely happened already), but I personally think it was his way of apologizing for the Chicken Little impersonation.


----------



## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

sb2313 said:


> My wife and I are definitely your daughters generation and we couldn't disagree more. That model may work in college/right afterwards but things change as soon as kids come along. Our generation likes the week long model quite well, who wants to pack up the kids for a 3 night stay that involves any type of flight/TSA hassles, ect- not worth it(there are exceptions of course, but I'm talking on a regular basis!). In my/my friends' opinions.



I hear where your coming from but the industry data for your demographic does not support this.  The travel and trends for North American vacation goers indicate the following:

1. These days Americans are taking shorter trips -- mostly extended weekends -- and leaving a large chunk of their paid vacation days unused.

2. Americans already have fewer paid vacation days than their European counterparts

3. North American and Asian countries were at the bottom of the list, with Europeans and Latin Americans taking the most advantage of their time off.

4. Italy has the most vacation days, with the average worker there getting 42 paid days off, according to the World Tourism Organization. Next was France with 37 days, Germany with 35, Brazil at 34, the United Kingdom at 28, Canada with 26 and Korea and Japan both with 25. The United States was near the bottom of the list with the average worker getting 13 days off. 

5. But even with those 13 days off, only 57 percent of Americans take them all.

6. The average length of a leisure trip for Americans in 2012 is 3.6 days.


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## sb2313 (Jun 28, 2012)

The vacation day data by nation is nothing new, how does that really impact timeshare use? 13 days is enough for 2 full week vacations using 5 days each and then a few days leftover for whatever. Your average vacation stay data of 3.6 days is also nothing really new, that reflects the impact of hotel usage. Do you feel the timeahare market and hotel market are the same or that timeshares are going in that direction?


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

Saintsfanfl said:


> I agree and I don't think he is just joking around. If you notice he jumps in quite a few threads of people asking questions or needing clarifications on Marriott issues. His answers sure seems like customer service answers veiled in a cloak. He also quickly questions claims where the post describes something that is contrary to Marriott policy. He defends points as being the best and only thing worth living for and shuns the resale market. He is on here posting regularly during working hours. If he doesn't work for Marriott I would be very surprised.
> 
> One claim of his that seemed very strange though is that he said he not only was allowed to be a day user at MGV, he also received a wrist band and a parking pass on one occasion. I had already asked on the phone but I stopped by there yesterday and asked again. According to them they do not allow day use of any kind and they never have. That would be an indication that he does not work for Marriott because if he had a special perk I don't think he would tout it here as being available for all.



Congratulations!  You have determined that I am a male that works in customer service during your normal working hours, answers questions and tries to clarify points, doesn't like to buy anything used, and can successfully get a wristband at MGV.

That makes me a Marriott employee!:hysterical: 

Can you also guess my age, sign, and tomorrow's lotto numbers?


----------



## dioxide45 (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> The life expectancy of legacy week resales will be measured by the birth of a Trust Points resales marketplace that is expected within the next 24-36 months.



Where are you expecting this resale marketplace to form? Is Marriott starting something, or are you just expecting more resales from developer purchasers to start hitting the open market and Ebay in the next 36 months?

I started a thread a few weeks ago about resale points. It seems that legacy weeks may still be a better option for the more savvy users. For the average Joe who is sold on points when they attend a presentation but opt for an external resale, they will probably go resale points since they were sold on the virtues of the points program and told how legacy weeks were an obsolete product. That is if they can get over the outrageous fees associated with resale point purchases.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

sb2313 said:


> The vacation day data by nation is nothing new, how does that really impact timeshare use? 13 days is enough for 2 full week vacations using 5 days each and then a few days leftover for whatever. Your average vacation stay data of 3.6 days is also nothing really new, that reflects the impact of hotel usage. Do you feel the timeahare market and hotel market are the same or that timeshares are going in that direction?



You are right, but the trend also indicates most Americans don't even take half of those days available.  I don't know the breakout of hotel versus timeshare segment.  That figure quoted is just a general industry number.  It would be interesting to see the difference I agree.


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## Cmore (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> I hear where your coming from but the industry data for your demographic does not support this.  The travel and trends for North American vacation goers indicate the following:
> 
> 1. These days Americans are taking shorter trips -- mostly extended weekends -- and leaving a large chunk of their paid vacation days unused.
> 
> ...



All this generalizing and extrapolating is rather foolish IMO.  Personally, I agree with much of what JME had to say.   Fractional, I'll share an analogy that I heard long ago about the problem with "averages".

Put one foot in extremely HOT water, and the other in very cold water.  On "average" the water is warm , therefore you should be be quite comfortable...:rofl:


----------



## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> Where are you expecting this resale marketplace to form? Is Marriott starting something, or are you just expecting more resales from developer purchasers to start hitting the open market and Ebay in the next 36 months?
> 
> I started a thread a few weeks ago about resale points. It seems that legacy weeks may still be a better option for the more savvy users. For the average Joe who is sold on points when they attend a presentation but opt for an external resale, they will probably go resale points since they were sold on the virtues of the points program and told how legacy weeks were an obsolete product. That is if they can get over the outrageous fees associated with resale point purchases.



I'm expecting a Trust Points resale marketplace to develop and/or expand based upon the current sales rate of Trust points combined with the shelf-life of already purchased points since 2010.  Five years sounds feasible to me.

Regarding the resale of legacy weeks you may be right but I don't think that will significantly slow down the sale of new points.

Similar to the Lease vs. Buy argument for automobiles.  Everyone knows that Buying provides for a lower total cost of ownership but the reality is that there are numerous car manufacturers in the USA that survive and thrive on the leased car market within the luxury segment.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

Cmore said:


> All this generalizing and extrapolating is rather foolish IMO.  Personally, I agree with much of what JME had to say.   Fractional, I'll share an analogy that I heard long ago about the problem with "averages".
> 
> Put one foot in extremely HOT water, and the other in very cold water.  On "average" the water is warm , therefore you should be be quite comfortable...:rofl:



OK.  It may be foolish and comical but I think this data is used by people connected to the travel industry to adjust their sales & marketing of their products.

It might be foolish for them to ignore it!


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## billymach4 (Jun 28, 2012)

Saintsfanfl said:


> I agree and I don't think he is just joking around. If you notice he jumps in quite a few threads of people asking questions or needing clarifications on Marriott issues. His answers sure seems like customer service answers veiled in a cloak. He also quickly questions claims where the post describes something that is contrary to Marriott policy. He defends points as being the best and only thing worth living for and shuns the resale market. He is on here posting regularly during working hours. If he doesn't work for Marriott I would be very surprised.
> 
> One claim of his that seemed very strange though is that he said he not only was allowed to be a day user at MGV, he also received a wrist band and a parking pass on one occasion. I had already asked on the phone but I stopped by there yesterday and asked again. According to them they do not allow day use of any kind and they never have. That would be an indication that he does not work for Marriott because if he had a special perk I don't think he would tout it here as being available for all.



The OP splashed on the Tug Scene as a guest on Feb 29, 2012. He is quite knowledgeable in the MVCI history. Most likely has been lurking around since the beginning of time under another alias. 

Personally I find the tone of this post and thread that has been started by the OP to be on the offensive side of the aisle. 

He or she.... Has much spare time to push buttons around here. The OP knew this thread was going to be a firecraker!


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## nokaoi9 (Jun 28, 2012)

While I agree with the OP that many Americans today are taking shorter vacations than full week vacations, I more strongly agree with the posts of Saintsfanfl.

Here is my logic;

I was helping a family member with Interval International who closed on a Marriott EOY a couple months ago. With the 1BR lockoff, he was able to trade through II short stay exchange into Marriott DSVII for a 1BR unit for six nights (June 30 - July 6) and a 1BR unit for Marriott Grand Chateu (August 31 - September 6).  While undecided if they will stay the full time at both, I recommended booking to maximize their exchange.

The breakdown of numbers;

*Resale*
Maintenance Fees- ~$521
Interval Exchange Fees- $298 ($149 x 2 exchanges)
Interval Membership- $89
Cost for Resort- $499 (including closing costs)
Total- $ 1407

*With Trust Points*
6 nights at Grand Chateau in 1BR (lowest season)- 2000 points
6 nights at DSVII in 1BR (lowest season) 1250 points
Interval Membership for Marriott Owners- $165
Costs at Rollout Price- $29,900 (3250 x $9.20/pt)
Maintenance Fees- $1300 (3250 x 0.40)
Total- $31,365

I chose to enroll my week at Ko Olina just because I thought the rewards outweighed the risks involved, but I would recommend to people thinking about buying to try a resale week before buying Trust Points.  

Cheers,
J


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

billymach4 said:


> The OP splashed on the Tug Scene as a guest on Feb 29, 2012. He is quite knowledgeable in the MVCI history. Most likely has been lurking around since the beginning of time under another alias.
> 
> Personally I find the tone of this post and thread that has been started by the OP to be on the offensive side of the aisle.
> 
> He or she.... Has much spare time to push buttons around here. The OP knew this thread was going to be a firecraker!



Readers of this thread can extrapolate all sorts of offensive tones, textures, and devious incarnations but the facts are that the thread is related to resales, points marketplace, and the future of the vacation experience.

It’s amazing how some folks can take a discussion on the market and personalize it to an ownership "Us vs. Them" topic.

Is any TUG member out there a behavior Phycologist?


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## Beefnot (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Congratulations!  You have determined that I am a male that works in customer service during your normal working hours, answers questions and tries to clarify points, doesn't like to buy anything used, and can successfully get a wristband at MGV.
> 
> That makes me a Marriott employee!:hysterical:
> 
> Can you also guess my age, sign, and tomorrow's lotto numbers?



Well, either Marriott or MVCI? I say Marriott.  What's the over/under?  

When it comes right down to it, the notion of scarcity for non-points owners is probably going to be primarily a bogeyman.  There will be plenty of inventory availability in II because the points program probably ain't going gangsbusters for one, and two, Marriott will still need an outlet for moving excess inventory (and luring in suckers prospective customers).


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## Beefnot (Jun 28, 2012)

billymach4 said:


> The OP splashed on the Tug Scene as a guest on Feb 29, 2012. He is quite knowledgeable in the MVCI history. Most likely has been lurking around since the beginning of time under another alias.
> 
> Personally I find the tone of this post and thread that has been started by the OP to be on the offensive side of the aisle.
> 
> He or she.... Has much spare time to push buttons around here. The OP knew this thread was going to be a firecraker!



That's what makes TUG fun!


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## SueDonJ (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> ...  Is any TUG member out there a behavior Phycologist?



No.  We either ran that guy off or he finished his thesis, don't know which.


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## billymach4 (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Readers of this thread can extrapolate all sorts of offensive tones, textures, and devious incarnations but the facts are that the thread is related to resales, points marketplace, and the future of the vacation experience.
> 
> It’s amazing how some folks can take a discussion on the market and personalize it to an ownership "Us vs. Them" topic.
> 
> Is any TUG member out there a behavior Phycologist?



You seem to be going tooth and nail at everyone's reply. Personally I have no skin in this thread or game. Seem like it FT against the world in this thread. Have at it. I have money to earn. Bye!


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

billymach4 said:


> You seem to be going tooth and nail at everyone's reply. Personally I have no skin in this thread or game. Seem like it FT against the world in this thread. Have at it. I have money to earn. Bye!



Thanks billymach4!  Actually, I will confess you and beefnot are the reasons I login routinely.  I enjoy both of your spirited banter. 

Keep up the good work!


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## gblotter (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Thanks billymach4!  Actually, I will confess you and beefnot are the reasons I login routinely.  I enjoy both of your spirited banter.


So billymach4 and beefnot are to blame for this troll?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)


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## billymach4 (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Thanks billymach4!  Actually, I will confess you and beefnot are the reasons I login routinely.  I enjoy both of your spirited banter.
> 
> Keep up the good work!



Will do my good friend Steamboat Bill.....

or is it Fractional Traveler these days?


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## m61376 (Jun 28, 2012)

There's always the flip side to the OP's argument- while I do think that, like many people here who purchased developer weeks, the first time buyer is likely intoxicated a bit by the vacation experience and the concept of owning a piece of the rock, so to speak, and having pre-paid vacations ad infinitum is a real incentive. And, yes, the average buyer, esp. younger buyers, is easily drawn in by the concept of buying enough for a short vacation now and adding to it later, as well as not having to make any kind of a decision as to where and when, along with being able to switch size as needs dictate. In a sense, Marriott caters to and fosters those impulse buys.

However, the reality is that we live in a computer world and this is the computer generation. Ten years ago it was quite a bit harder to learn about a resale market, and required a lot more work to find out about it. Also, while only some of my generation are computer savvy, kids today are cutting their eye teeth on computers and are capable of finding info. on anything with little effort. So I think even those who are mesmerized into buying an introductory points package are largely likely to discover week ownership as well, and a simple search on Ebay easily reveals the buys out there. So it is quite possible that after the introductory points package has wetted their appetite, they'll be ripe for purchasing resale weeks. It's not hard for a newbie to figure out just how much more bang for the buck they can get with a resale week versus spending thousands on points.

And, like many of us, after a few trips here and there they may find that special place they'd like to frequently return to, and pick up a cheap resale there. Even enrolled legacy week owners may supplement their ownership with a week at a place they like to return to. I think the far better value of weeks will support the system rather than the advent of points decimating the value of weeks. To date, I think the single largest detriment to the resale market has been the economy and not the point system, and I suspect as the economy strengthens the resale market will slowly follow suit.


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## Beefnot (Jun 28, 2012)

gblotter said:


> So billymach4 and beefnot are to blame for this troll?



Oh, FT is a harmless, amusing chap.  Just recognize the angle he's coming from and don't sweat it.  Just have fun, take the bait and make debate.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

Beefnot said:


> Oh, FT is a harmless, amusing chap.  Just recognize the angle he's coming from and don't sweat it.  Just have fun, take the bait and make debate.



Funny.  Nice!


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## dioxide45 (Jun 28, 2012)

We know that there are only a little over 40,000 weeks conveyed to the trust. By all estimates that makes up a mere 5% of all weeks in the system. There are by best estimates 30% of legacy owners enrolled in the program. Of those 30%, how many are converting to points in a given year vs how many enrolled just to save on II fees? Perhaps a good guess is that 50% of enrolled owners are converting to points. So perhaps 20-25% all weeks are actually playing in points. Given that number, IMO it will be a long time before points kills legacy weeks.


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## Docklander (Jun 28, 2012)

I may be completely wrong about this (and I probably am) but isn't it the case that, unless Marriott builds new resorts, they will be reliant on their existing inventory of unsold units (plus weeks owners who exchange for points) to fulfill the points bookings? If this is correct then I don't understand how points will effectively kill off weeks.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> We know that there are only a little over 40,000 weeks conveyed to the trust. By all estimates that makes up a mere 5% of all weeks in the system. There are by best estimates 30% of legacy owners enrolled in the program. Of those 30%, how many are converting to points in a given year vs how many enrolled just to save on II fees? Perhaps a good guess is that 50% of enrolled owners are converting to points. So perhaps 20-25% all weeks are actually playing in points. Given that number, IMO it will be a long time before points kills legacy weeks.



A bit of additional information that may help correlate your numbers:

From the latest MF Trust disclosure statement: *“In 2012, it is anticipated the Trust Property that will be available for occupancy will consist of 473,393 Interests.”*

Does your analysis include the new points being consumed each quarter by sales efforts?  If so, how does that factor in if at all?

If your statements are accurate, then doesn't this make the Trust the poor folks on the block and then they need to rely on legacy exchanges for most of their reservations?

Also, if that were the case, wouldn't we expect more aggressive ROFR activity to feed the poor trust?


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## dioxide45 (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> A bit of additional information that may help correlate your numbers:
> 
> From the latest MF Trust disclosure statement: *“In 2012, it is anticipated the Trust Property that will be available for occupancy will consist of 473,393 Interests.”*



Remember an interest in the trust is a BI (Beneficial Interest) or 250 points, not a week as I suspect you are perhaps thinking? The trust consists of 137,461,250 total points. Divide that by 250 and you have 549,845 interests. That correlates closely with your number. Perhaps the difference is the unsold inventory?



> Does your analysis include the new points being consumed each quarter by sales efforts?  If so, how does that factor in if at all?



My analysis consists of all points conveyed to the trust. The trust consists of sold and unsold inventory. MVCI can't sell inventory that isn't in the trust. So I would say, yes, my analysis includes points being consumed by sales efforts.



> If your statements are accurate, then doesn't this make the Trust the poor folks on the block and then they need to rely on legacy exchanges for most of their reservations?



I know my trust numbers (points, BIs and number of weeks conveyed) for a fact. I don't however know the total number of intervals (weeks) in the entire system. Numbers I have seen reported here are in the 750,000 to 800,000 range.



> Also, if that were the case, wouldn't we expect more aggressive ROFR activity to feed the poor trust?



MVCI doesn't need the inventory in the trust except to sell. They can get their hands on weeks from other sources in order to feed the exchange company; trades for MRPs, II, or legacy conversions to meet reservation demands.


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## Cmore (Jun 28, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> A bit of additional information that may help correlate your numbers:
> 
> From the latest MF Trust disclosure statement: *“In 2012, it is anticipated the Trust Property that will be available for occupancy will consist of 473,393 Interests.”*
> 
> ...



Isn't it true that an "interest" in the DC is worth 250pts.  which if you divide the 473K worth of interests by 12  ( to have an approx value of 3K/wk)  you end up just under 40K weeks as Dioxide cites.

Your other point is exactly accurate the DC trust owners are in fact the "poor folks" on the block when it comes to reservation inventory.  Most of the inventory in the system is in "sold" weeks.  MVW/MCVI holds the under development and recently developed properties, which are certainly highly desireable and then varying amounts at most if not all the resorts in the system.  I believe Dioxide published a list of trust holdings not too long ago.

That all said, I am not a trust basher, as I am an enrolled owner and actually like the points program - it just fits our needs really well.   I just happen to think that both systems are going to work very well for their owners.  The trust needs the enrolled weeks owners to take points and turn in their inventory, it needs unenrolled weeks owners via II trades and these shared needs are going to make the whole system work out.   No doubt, MWV will judiciously be picking up resale inventory as it needs to.  I'm sure they have some modeling that is targeting their needs.   Given time because of its overall size all owners:  trust, enrolled, and weeks owners are all going to be just fine.  Sure the Trust will have the best access to the newest stuff, but it will all work its way thru the system.

So while, some of FT's points are valid others are just speculation.  With no more basis in fact than my prediction that "all owners are going to be fine."  I just happen to believe it to be so.   

FT - you are entitled to your belief's and I am entitled to mine.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> Remember an interest in the trust is a BI (Beneficial Interest) or 250 points, not a week as I suspect you are perhaps thinking? The trust consists of 137,461,250 total points. Divide that by 250 and you have 549,845 interests. That correlates closely with your number. Perhaps the difference is the unsold inventory?
> 
> Yes, I'm aware of the conversion factor.  Just wanted to reproduce the statement here exactly as it is written in the Trust documents. 1 BI = 250 Trust Points
> 
> ...



I have always seen the MR inventory as seperate.  I have been trying for a while to determine via experimentation if there is any coorelation but I haven't figured it out yet.  My gut still tells me that it doesn't mix with the MVCI stuff.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 28, 2012)

Cmore said:


> Isn't it true that an "interest" in the DC is worth 250pts.  which if you divide the 473K worth of interests by 12  ( to have an approx value of 3K/wk)  you end up just under 40K weeks as Dioxide cites.
> 
> Your other point is exactly accurate the DC trust owners are in fact the "poor folks" on the block when it comes to reservation inventory.  Most of the inventory in the system is in "sold" weeks.  MVW/MCVI holds the under development and recently developed properties, which are certainly highly desireable and then varying amounts at most if not all the resorts in the system.  I believe Dioxide published a list of trust holdings not too long ago.
> 
> ...



Your comments seem to be balanced and thought provoking.  If we can visualize this as an engine with lots of moving parts, inter-linkages, and some dependencies then knowing this we can speculate with a certain degree of confidence the level of impact on the resale marketplace.

Using a statistical model, perhaps Bayes' theorem we can infer a particular system of interpretations based upon a set of facts provided by the Points system.  Sounds interesting to perform more research.

Thanks


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## yumdrey (Jun 29, 2012)

I had to chuckle many times while I was reading this thread (or argument?).
Fractions traveler is wrong because:
1) Marriott resale weeks were plummeted almost to bottom already (since early 2010)
2) I could pick up 6 Marriott platinum weeks for $1 - $500 during the last 24 months - owners are scared of a new change (DC program) and they just want to get out of Marriott. I FULLY understand them and it is a shame of Marriott.
3) I use my weeks, so don't need DC points or partial week stay at all. And I am not the only one in Marriott system.
4) I have gotten great exchanges during the last 18 months (after DC jumped into Marriott) and don't care about II/Marriott inventory (because exchange is my least option). To satisfy Marriott owners, Marriott still needs II and needs to deposit quality weeks to hold the contract with II. That's enough said.
5) Marriott will deposit weeks to II to sell their DC points. It's symbiosis. They should dump unused weeks to II to bring more potential buyers.

franctions owners said someday, II inventory will dry up? Only in your wish! Not many Marriott owners are stupid or simple like you wish.
When Marriott/II inventory dry up, it is the end of Marriott system.

I own Hilton and Hyatt weeks.
Don't they need exchange company because they have points system? No. They still need exchange company (RCI for Hilton and II for Hyatt) even though they have pure points system, which is well much more advanced than Marriott DC.
I own WorldMark which is a true trust points system like Marriott. Don't they need exchange company? No. WorldMark can use both II and RCI to please owners more.

Marriott still needs an exchange company and will deposit bulk weeks like Hilton and Hyatt.

I own 7 Marriott Platinum weeks.
Should I join DC program? 
NEVER, no thanks.

You lost my credibility already, so I don't spend one penny to your company, not any more.
If I want to spend more money to timeshares, I would buy more Hilton weeks.


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## dioxide45 (Jun 29, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Agreed. You can see these conveyed to the Trust on a fairly routine basis at http://or.occompt.com/recorder/web/



I am very well aware of the conveyances. Why go to the Orange County Comptrollers website when Greg and I have already done all the work in this thread?


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## dioxide45 (Jun 29, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> I have always seen the MR inventory as seperate.  I have been trying for a while to determine via experimentation if there is any coorelation but I haven't figured it out yet.  My gut still tells me that it doesn't mix with the MVCI stuff.



This is from the FAQ on the my-vacationclub.com website as it pertains to enrollment in the DC program. This verbiage has been in that FAQ since the program was rolled out in June 2010.



> *Where will the inventory come from to fulfill vacation reservations within the Marriott Vacation Club Collection?*
> Inventory throughout the Marriott Vacation Club Collection will be available for reservations for Enrolled Owners via other Marriott Vacation Club Owners who enroll their weeks and elect Vacation Club Points, and non-enrolled Owners who trade their usage for Marriott Rewards points or exchange their week through membership in Interval International.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 29, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> This is from the FAQ on the my-vacationclub.com website as it pertains to enrollment in the DC program. This verbiage has been in that FAQ since the program was rolled out in June 2010.



Yes, I agree that is what the website states but my comment was related to my experimentation to verify if in fact this is happening and how does it happen.  I said that I have not found the mechanism which drives this.

Have you been able to confirm if this in fact is happening?

I have been experimenting with this statement since the beginning of the year by following certain properties and dates on both myvacationclub.com and marriott.com and have to this point found no correlation that would lead me to believe this is happening.

Take as an example the following experiment for next week for 1 night on July 4th, 2012 in Orlando.  I went to marriott.com looked at what was available and compared it to the myvacationclub website for the entire week.  

Here are my results:


1. Lakeshore Reserve: Guestroom was available on Marriott.com (MVCI No availability only July 3rd)

2. Grande Vista: Guest, 1, 2, and 3-BR are available on Marriott.com.  On vacationclub.com no availability for any unit types on July 4th.  Only available July 1,2,6,7.

3. Cyprus Harbour: Marriott.com had 2-BR units.  On Myvacationclub.com no availability for July 4th.  Available July 1,2, 6.

4. Harbour Lake: Marriott.com availability Guestroom, 1, 2-BR.  Myvacationclub.com had no availability for the guestroom, 1-BR July 6th, 2-BR only available July 1,2,5,6.

5. Royal Palms: Marriott.com has 2-Br units.  Myvacationclub.com only available July 2,5.  No availability July 4th.

6. Imperial Palms: Marriott.com has 3-BR available July 4th.  Myvactionclub.com only dates available are July 1,2,6,7.

7. Sabel Palms: Marriott.com had availability for July 4th 2-BR.  Myvacationclub.com matched July 4th and had 2,3,and 6 as well. 

*So why is all this inventory for Orlando on July 4th, 2012 not available for DC enrolled owners to book?*

I believe that it may be purely revenue based.  In other words who gets the cash for these reservations after the split between Marriott International and Marriott Vacations Worldwide?  Maybe it’s a split somehow?

There is an affiliate agreement with MVW and Marriott Rewards in place.  It would not surprise me if the revenue for MVCI units being turned in for MR points were to go directly to Marriott International and thus they get the reservation.

This would explain my comments as to why I feel they may be different and don't necessarily comingle as the myvacationclub.com website states.

It’s also interesting to mention that the statement from the website you quoted makes no mention of Trust Inventory which we all know is also a source of weeks in the exchange pool.

Interesting stuff indeed......


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 29, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> I am very well aware of the conveyances. Why go to the Orange County Comptrollers website when Greg and I have already done all the work in this thread?



Thanks.  I didn't know how often your guys stuff was being updated but it’s a nice service that’s appreciated.


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## ocdb8r (Jun 29, 2012)

There's quite a bit of interesting minutiae going back and forth that I have enjoyed reading.  For me, the big picture is this - timeshares are just one of many alternatives for vacation travel.  If it becomes an uneconomical alternative, for whatever reason, it will slowly fade away and die.

Trust points, to me, are a total waste of my vacation spend.  The upfront cost and maintenance fee for enough points for a week in Maui far exceeds the many attractive alternatives.  This is true for many prime weeks at many prime resorts.  The higher points charged for weekend stays makes it EVEN MORE true for short stays unless they happen to be midweek.  Conversion of the existing week I have into DC points occassionally makes sense, but even given the nearly non-existant initial investment and lower mf/point when I do the conversion, there are plenty of times when it just doesn't make financial sense.



FractionalTraveler said:


> Guess your OK with eating from the scraps that fall of the dinner table and make their way into Interval.  Others will want to sit and eat from the head of the table.



I am quite ok with the scraps that fall from the dinner table as the price is right for what I am looking for.  If the good scraps dry up, I look for another alternative.

Further, if you think ponying up tens of thousands of dollars in initial costs and then thousands more of maintenance costs just to be able to be first in line at the reservation que is "eating from the head of the table" in the grand scheme of vacation options, you live in a tiny world.  As many have pointed out, the weeks based system was already starting to implode on itself as a result of the outrageous maintenance costs being charged.  The trust system will obscure that for a bit, but many will begin to realise paying $1000 in maintenance fees to spend 2 or 3 weekend nights at an "asset light" converted condo project that Marriott slaps its name on, isn't really worth it.

The biggest fallacy in the premise of your initial post is that the creation of a "points" selling and exchanging market will devalue "weeks" owenerships.  What is likely to happen is that the development of a points market wipes away the all the marketing hype Marriott has slapped on the new system and all that remains is good old fashion supply and demand - which in the timeshare world there is a glut of the former and a lack of the latter.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 29, 2012)

ocdb8r said:


> There's quite a bit of interesting minutiae going back and forth that I have enjoyed reading.  For me, the big picture is this - timeshares are just one of many alternatives for vacation travel.  If it becomes an uneconomical alternative, for whatever reason, it will slowly fade away and die.
> 
> Trust points, to me, are a total waste of my vacation spend.  The upfront cost and maintenance fee for enough points for a week in Maui far exceeds the many attractive alternatives.  This is true for many prime weeks at many prime resorts.  The higher points charged for weekend stays makes it EVEN MORE true for short stays unless they happen to be midweek.  Conversion of the existing week I have into DC points occassionally makes sense, but even given the nearly non-existant initial investment and lower mf/point when I do the conversion, there are plenty of times when it just doesn't make financial sense.
> 
> ...



Thank you for the insightful perspective.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 29, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Yes, I agree that is what the website states but my comment was related to my experimentation to verify if in fact this is happening and how does it happen.  I said that I have not found the mechanism which drives this.
> 
> Have you been able to confirm if this in fact is happening?
> 
> ...



As a direct follow-up to this data I did a search for a property that has lots of units conveyed to the Trust and also ran the Marriott.com experiment.

I used Crystal Shores 2-BR as the basis of this experiment for the entire month of August 2012.

Results:

1. On Marriott.com there were units (i.e. Gulf-Front, Gulf-Side, & Gulf-View) available for reservation 30 of the 31 days of the month.  The exception was Sunday August 12th.  The average rate they were asking for was $420/night.

2. On the Myvacationclub.com website only 3 days out of the 31 were available in any view category.  Those dates were August 4, 12, and 31.

That is a huge difference in availability at this property from marriott.com and myvacationclub.com.  This property is also loaded with weeks conveyed to the Trust.

Can anyone offer an explanation as to why this huge difference?

Are all of these units really from folks converting to MR points?  I can't believe it.

If there is so much availability on Marriott.com why isn't this being moved somehow to the MVCI DC for usage?


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## jme (Jun 29, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> OK.  It may be foolish and comical but I think this data is used by people connected to the travel industry to adjust their sales & marketing of their products.
> 
> It might be foolish for them to ignore it!



how, "foolish"? we have all we need now, and also have the wherewithal to go out and buy trust points, say, within the first 24 hours we want. are we currently deficient somehow? foolish no. never foolish when it comes to NOT buying something, unless it's life or major medical insurance, or a big diamond......


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## Will33 (Jun 29, 2012)

*Potential threat to legacy weeks value*

I do see some threat to the value of my legacy weeks, since the DC program I have had more issues reserving platinum Aruba Surf at 13 months and platinum Oceanwatch at 12 months, the inventory is just not as available as it was before, I believe Marriott is controling it more, as the years go by more and more inventory will be in the trust, in the extreme case I would only be able to reserve weeks at the beginning or end of my seasons.  I am ok with competing with other weeks owners to try and get my reservations, it is a reasonably fair system, but now I feel that I must also comptete with Marriott for these weeks also and Marriott has an upper hand.  From what I have read on Tug we still don't know how Marriott reserves their inventory, if so please point me to the threads.  I have paid the 1,995 a couple of years ago to enroll my developer and resale weeks to give me more options in the future, I think it should work in the long run but their is concern on my part because it doesn't seem to be a level playing field and Marriott has the upper hand and Marriott's customer is DC points purchasers not Legacy owners.


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## jme (Jun 29, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> We know that there are only a little over 40,000 weeks conveyed to the trust. By all estimates that makes up a mere 5% of all weeks in the system. There are by best estimates 30% of legacy owners enrolled in the program. Of those 30%, how many are converting to points in a given year vs how many enrolled just to save on II fees? Perhaps a good guess is that 50% of enrolled owners are converting to points. So perhaps 20-25% all weeks are actually playing in points. Given that number, IMO it will be a long time before points kills legacy weeks.



i like those numbers.....so you've been studying too?


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## m61376 (Jun 29, 2012)

Will33 said:


> I do see some threat to the value of my legacy weeks, since the DC program I have had more issues reserving platinum Aruba Surf at 13 months and platinum Oceanwatch at 12 months, the inventory is just not as available as it was before, I believe Marriott is controling it more, as the years go by more and more inventory will be in the trust, in the extreme case I would only be able to reserve weeks at the beginning or end of my seasons.  I am ok with competing with other weeks owners to try and get my reservations, it is a reasonably fair system, but now I feel that I must also comptete with Marriott for these weeks also and Marriott has an upper hand.  From what I have read on Tug we still don't know how Marriott reserves their inventory, if so please point me to the threads.  I have paid the 1,995 a couple of years ago to enroll my developer and resale weeks to give me more options in the future, I think it should work in the long run but their is concern on my part because it doesn't seem to be a level playing field and Marriott has the upper hand and Marriott's customer is DC points purchasers not Legacy owners.


The powers that be have repeatedly stated that Marriott only reserves its fair share of each reservation period, so theoretically it shouldn't be any harder or easier to reserve than in the past. 

It may have been the week you tried to reserve or the moment you called that was an issue, because many have posted that they didn't have any issue with legacy week reservations. I know there were recent posts about July 4th successes, even Sat. arrival dates. I don't think the overall impression has been that people have had more difficulty reserving those prime weeks than in the past.


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## Cmore (Jun 29, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Your comments seem to be balanced and thought provoking.  If we can visualize this as an engine with lots of moving parts, inter-linkages, and some dependencies then knowing this we can speculate with a certain degree of confidence the level of impact on the resale marketplace.
> 
> Using a statistical model, perhaps Bayes' theorem we can infer a particular system of interpretations based upon a set of facts provided by the Points system.  Sounds interesting to perform more research.
> 
> Thanks



Actually, I think Chaos Theory is the more appropriate model.   As I am sure you are well aware, one of the main attributes is the "butterfly effect".   Two of the earliest MVCI resorts were named Monarch and Swallowtail - clearly not a coincidence.


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## dioxide45 (Jun 29, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Yes, I agree that is what the website states but my comment was related to my experimentation to verify if in fact this is happening and how does it happen.  I said that I have not found the mechanism which drives this.
> 
> Have you been able to confirm if this in fact is happening?
> 
> ...



I agree that the inventory isn't commingled. When someone trades a week for Marriott Reward points, MVCI can do several things with that actual week:


Nothing, wait until later to take that inventory.
Put it up for rent on Marriott.com
Put it in the exchange company (as the FAQ would suggest).

So if they put it on Marriott.com, you can't reserve it with points. If they put it in the DC exchange company, then you can't reserve it on Marriott.com. The inventory isn't commingled for reservations. It has to go one route or another.

My guess is that MVCI used the units traded for MR points to feed the exchange company in the early days of the DC program. Now that they can source inventory from many places, they can monetize those weeks.

Another thought with the reward points. My guess is that now MVW has to buy reward points from Marriott Rewards in much the same way Chase buys them to give as part of the Marriott Rewards Credit Card. MVW then gets any revenue (minus fees) from the rental of those units on Marriott.com.


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## MOXJO7282 (Jun 29, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> The life expectancy of legacy week resales will be measured by the birth of a Trust Points resales marketplace that is expected within the next 24-36 months.
> 
> Just as soon as this happens, resale of legacy weeks will be reduced to crumbs and prices will fall to the floor. They may be free at that point.
> 
> ...


There are so many weakness in your argument I'm not sure where to begin. See my comments in *BOLD* above

One thing I refute is somehow legacy week rentals will be hurt. In fact the opposite will be true because for me to rent a Maui Pres week for which I receive a very nice premium it costs me currently MF of $1897.  For a points owner to rent the same week he has to give all so many points at a much higher price so you're comment "After just 2 short years of DC enrollment, there are already multiple secondary markets for DC and Trust point rentals.  These rentals will only increase as more points purchases enter the consumer space." is nonsensical.


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## laurac260 (Jun 30, 2012)

This thread is amusing.  And mind numbing.  I'm a relative newbie to the timeshare world, having bought a resale week 4 years ago.  

This is what I can add from a newbie perspective:

#1, first a question, what is a "legacy" owner?

#2, we have been extremely happy coming to our home resort in platinum season on HHI at Grande Ocean. I see no need to convert to points.  I can rent it out for at least twice what I pay in maintenance fees, and either pocket the money (which I have not yet chose to do) or rent another week from someone else.  We did that last year when we needed to make a last minute change of dates.  I can rent my platinum week out and then pick up TWO weeks in a softer season for the same price, if I chose to do so.  This can be managed in just a few days time.  All for the cost of a $14.95 membership on Redweek.  

#3, If ANYONE sees a Grande Ocean resale week for only 3x the maintenance fees, (in Gold or platinum season), please feel free to call me, even at 2am!  But I suppose I will need to wait for the second one you see, because you will most likely buy the first one for yourself.  

#4, Upon checkin this past week, we were sitting in the Grande Ocean lobby waiting for our villa to be ready.  The concierge guy came up to us and exchanged pleasantries, "Hi, where you from, how long have you owned, blah blah blah, do we need reservations anywhere, etc."  I knew we were in for a sales pitch when he commented on my green eyes  .  He mentioned the points program.  I said, "I'm really not interested."  "Well, do you know about all the perks, etc."  My reply, "I frequent TUG, timeshare users group, and there's more than enough info on there."  He, "Well, the people on TUG are a nice group, but they frequently give incorrect info."  I wonder if he meant people like Dioxide, of Fractional Traveler???


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## dioxide45 (Jun 30, 2012)

laurac260 said:


> This thread is amusing.  And mind numbing.  I'm a relative newbie to the timeshare world, having bought a resale week 4 years ago.
> 
> This is what I can add from a newbie perspective:
> 
> #1, first a question, what is a "legacy" owner?



If you own a week that was purchased prior to 6/10/2012, you are considered a legacy owner. For European weeks, the date would be 6/18/2012.



> #4, Upon checkin this past week, we were sitting in the Grande Ocean lobby waiting for our villa to be ready.  The concierge guy came up to us and exchanged pleasantries, "Hi, where you from, how long have you owned, blah blah blah, do we need reservations anywhere, etc."  I knew we were in for a sales pitch when he commented on my green eyes  .  He mentioned the points program.  I said, "I'm really not interested."  "Well, do you know about all the perks, etc."  My reply, "I frequent TUG, timeshare users group, and there's more than enough info on there."  He, "Well, the people on TUG are a nice group, but they frequently give incorrect info."  I wonder if he meant people like Dioxide, of Fractional Traveler???



Yes, there is some incorrect statements provided on TUG, I know I have given out some incorrect information. However it is almost always quickly corrected. "Frequently" is not a term that would come to mind though. As a group, we probably know more about the entire program than any one sales rep.


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## m61376 (Jun 30, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> Yes, there is some incorrect statements provided on TUG, I know I have given out some incorrect information. However it is almost always quickly corrected. "Frequently" is not a term that would come to mind though. As a group, we probably know more about the entire program than any one sales rep.



And the difference is a- we're not being paid nor are we in a position that demands expertise and b- when we err, we're invariably corrected within hours if not minutes, so we rarely have the chance to leave a lingering false impression. I doubt there have been many posts that have led to people regretting spending thousands of dollars because of what one of us posted.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 30, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> There are so many weakness in your argument I'm not sure where to begin. See my comments in *BOLD* above
> 
> One thing I refute is somehow legacy week rentals will be hurt. In fact the opposite will be true because for me to rent a Maui Pres week for which I receive a very nice premium it costs me currently MF of $1897.  For a points owner to rent the same week he has to give all so many points at a much higher price so you're comment "After just 2 short years of DC enrollment, there are already multiple secondary markets for DC and Trust point rentals.  These rentals will only increase as more points purchases enter the consumer space." is nonsensical.



Thank you for your inputs.

1. Apparently many folks continue to buy direct these days as evidenced by the sales data provided by Marriott financial statements.

2. You are right; many existing owners have not joined the DC program.  Maybe even as much as 70% of the owner base.  Five years from now a NEW potential resale owner will have the option to either purchase a legacy resale at a low price or purchase resale points that may provide additional flexibility beyond the traditional legacy product offering.

3. New program enhancements in the DC will attract new customers which will gravitate to the new product lines thus steal some amount of business away from the limited legacy offering in the future.

4. I'm not aware of any new resorts at this time but I fully expect them to continue to develop new and exciting places to visit in the future.  

As to being able to rent everything, I'm not sure about this.  

What rental marketplace today allows me to rent a RC Residence in San Francisco as an example?  I only know of 3 places where I could get that rental if it were my desire.  One of those places happens to be the Marriott DC.

5. I can understand there will be no real impact at the moment but I don't think it may remain this way in the future.

6. I offer a compelling reason as to why the DC marketplace will overshadow legacy rentals:  The DC marketplace will include many more product offerings that will attract new customers and steal market share from the once prevalent weeks based product.  The DC ecosystem will continue to evolve into a more mature product offering that will at some point offer MORE options to more customers.

8. I have no data on "Points Exchanges" at the moment but I do feel that Point systems in general will be a strong vehicle in deriving more value from points than a legacy week.  I can see it 5 years down the road when a more mature point exchange marketplace develops and allows Marriott Points owners to Exchange with DVC, Hilton, Four Seasons, etc. as an example.  Now this is not anything new but as the points systems continues to develop and secondary markets mature, the benefit will eventually be derived.

9&10. I think this will be impactful in the future.  The European base was just added to the DC program.  The Asian will follow at some point.  From what I can read on TUG many of these members are very happy with this direction.


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## dioxide45 (Jun 30, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Thank you for your inputs.
> 
> 1. Apparently many folks continue to buy direct these days as evidenced by the sales data provided by Marriott financial statements.
> 
> 2. You are right; many existing owners have not joined the DC program.  Maybe even as much as 70% of the owner base.  Five years from now a NEW potential resale owner will have the option to either purchase a legacy resale at a low price or purchase resale points that may provide additional flexibility beyond the traditional legacy product offering.



I do agree that when the trust points resale market materializes, they will probably be a more in demand option than external weeks based purchases. Just look to Starwood as an example. Mandatory resorts that have the ability to use StarOptions to go to other Starwood properties through the internal network command higher resale price than those that must trade exclusively through II. In Starwood, people are still very successful trading in II, but mandatory resorts still command higher prices.

I do think that the high initiation fees of resale trust points will keep the prices stamped down somewhat, but in 5 years, this is what people will be wanting for trading purposes if they are looking for those true prime reservations.



> 3. New program enhancements in the DC will attract new customers which will gravitate to the new product lines thus steal some amount of business away from the limited legacy offering in the future.



People attending presentations now are sold on the virtues of the new points product and are told about the weaknesses of weeks. I can see where many people will want points, even given their expensive usage. Buying 2500 package would be ideal to get started and then just rent points for any additional needs.



> 4. I'm not aware of any new resorts at this time but I fully expect them to continue to develop new and exciting places to visit in the future.



I agree, though I don't think we will see it happen in this decade.



> As to being able to rent everything, I'm not sure about this.
> 
> What rental marketplace today allows me to rent a RC Residence in San Francisco as an example?  I only know of 3 places where I could get that rental if it were my desire.  One of those places happens to be the Marriott DC.
> 
> ...


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## laurac260 (Jun 30, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> If you own a week that was purchased prior to 6/10/2012, you are considered a legacy owner. For European weeks, the date would be 6/18/2012.
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, there is some incorrect statements provided on TUG, I know I have given out some incorrect information. However it is almost always quickly corrected. "Frequently" is not a term that would come to mind though. As a group, we probably know more about the entire program than any one sales rep.



Dioxide, I'm making the assumption that OP is a Marriott plant, and I'm pretty sure you are not.


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## MALC9990 (Jun 30, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Thank you for your inputs.
> 
> 
> 9&10. I think this will be impactful in the future.  The European base was just added to the DC program.  The Asian will follow at some point.  From what I can read on TUG many of these members are very happy with this direction.



As an owner in Europe who just enrolled my 5 European weeks and also an owner of 3 weeks in Phuket Beach Club and chunk of MVCIAP Asia Pacific points, I have a few comments concerning the addition of Europe to the DC exchange program and the possible future inclusion of Asian owners.

As for Europe, I appear to be in a minority in enrolling. We have been here in Sin Antem for 2 weeks now and very owner I have met and talked to wanted to talk about the DC points system after having been to their update session in the sales centre. I only me 2 other owners wh enrolled. The first Ike me had no USA weeks and was also an owner iof weeks in Phuket. he had multiple EU weeks and was hoping that his Phuket weeks would follow into the program soon. The second is an owner who already enrolled his USA weeks and was going to add his EU weeks also. Many others who own multiple weeks have decided not to join. They see nothing in it for theme. Most only have 1,2 or 3 weeks in Europe and do not feel the DC points system offers enough additional value. Those with 2 or less weeks are definitely right not to join IMHO since we are excluded from buying Trust points - not that I would ever consider adding to my portfolio now.

So I do not think there will be a sudden rush of additional European weeks available for exchange through DC points.

As for Asia it may well be the same if the only thing offered is the ability to enroll weeks and points for the DC exchange then not a big impact. What Asian points owners like me will be looking for is full access to Trust and Exchange weeks in the DC because that is what they get in the Asian Points programme.


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## MOXJO7282 (Jun 30, 2012)

Below is the math I did to validate which would have a better rental market going forward legacy weeks owners or points owners because which ever did I was going to continue my rental model with. I thought perhaps I could take two lesser weeks and convert via points to one supreme week and rent that for higher profit but what I found was it was not possible and legacy weeks had a big advantage. My math is based on a .50 per point rental fee and a 2BDRM OF at the MOC - Maui original

Someone can rent a 2BDRM OF Pres week MOC legacy week for about $3k. 

To buy points to do the same would cost you $3900 (based on .50 per point resale and 7800 Marriott requires for a weeks stay under points).

That is a pretty big spread and gives the advantage to the legacy weeks owner big time.


This is true for all the resorts I own and track.  It is why I believe it was in my best interest to stay with my model of renting my legacy weeks as opposed to converting and renting points and why legacy weeks owners have and will continue to have an advantage over those renting points.


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## dioxide45 (Jun 30, 2012)

MALC9990 said:


> As an owner in Europe who just enrolled my 5 European weeks and also an owner of 3 weeks in Phuket Beach Club and chunk of MVCIAP Asia Pacific points, I have a few comments concerning the addition of Europe to the DC exchange program and the possible future inclusion of Asian owners.
> 
> As for Europe, I appear to be in a minority in enrolling. We have been here in Sin Antem for 2 weeks now and very owner I have met and talked to wanted to talk about the DC points system after having been to their update session in the sales centre. I only me 2 other owners wh enrolled. The first Ike me had no USA weeks and was also an owner iof weeks in Phuket. he had multiple EU weeks and was hoping that his Phuket weeks would follow into the program soon. The second is an owner who already enrolled his USA weeks and was going to add his EU weeks also. Many others who own multiple weeks have decided not to join. They see nothing in it for theme. Most only have 1,2 or 3 weeks in Europe and do not feel the DC points system offers enough additional value. Those with 2 or less weeks are definitely right not to join IMHO since we are excluded from buying Trust points - not that I would ever consider adding to my portfolio now.
> 
> ...



I think DC will be a tougher sell in Europe than it was in the USA. With Europe only having four resorts, many people who own at them travel to them year after year and don't exchange Marriott to Marriott like people in the USA do. Unless they are willing to fly across the pond, exchanges within the Marriott system in Europe have very few options.


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## MALC9990 (Jun 30, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> I think DC will be a tougher sell in Europe than it was in the USA. With Europe only having four resorts, many people who own at them travel to them year after year and don't exchange Marriott to Marriott like people in the USA do. Unless they are willing to fly across the pond, exchanges within the Marriott system in Europe have very few options.



I think you underestimate our willingness to fly across the pond for vacations but the DC just does not appear to offer enough to tempt many owners away from their use of Interval for exchanges.

For my part I plan to investigate the opportunities to exchange some of my weeks for points and then look for 1 bedroom units in USA Marriott resorts in shoulder season to maximize the benefit to offset the cost of the transatlantic flights.


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## Beefnot (Jun 30, 2012)

laurac260 said:


> Dioxide, I'm making the assumption that OP is a Marriott plant, and I'm pretty sure you are not.



I believe you and I and billymach4 are the only ones who have taken the red pill.  I felt like Charlton Heston screaming "Soylent Green is people!" in that thread.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 30, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> Below is the math I did to validate which would have a better rental market going forward legacy weeks owners or points owners because which ever did I was going to continue my rental model with. I thought perhaps I could take two lesser weeks and convert via points to one supreme week and rent that for higher profit but what I found was it was not possible and legacy weeks had a big advantage. My math is based on a .50 per point rental fee and a 2BDRM OF at the MOC - Maui original
> 
> Someone can rent a 2BDRM OF Pres week MOC legacy week for about $3k.
> 
> ...



This analysis presents the business case from a purely financial point of view and as a landlord it does make a lot of sense today.

That being said, I offer some additional questions and considerations to add to this analysis for us to ponder:

1. Does this analysis assume that the future customer making this spend is of the same demographic?

2.  Are we making an assumption that the future Points consumer is actually looking for the same product as the legacy consumer has to offer from 10 years past?  Is the point’s consumer of tomorrow the same as the legacy week consumer of yesterday?

3. Are we saying that the current global economic climate shift from 2008 bears no influence our decision-making when it comes to discretionary spends today?


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## skyequeen (Jun 30, 2012)

*Enrolled owners have the best of all worlds*

TUG folks can forget that most people are not as saavy about timesharing and are not going to invest the time and energy to find out.  They won't be interested in the high finance of it.  We are at MOW now and have been talking to week and points people and the owners are the happiest.

We have 4 Platinum weeks that would cost us about $170,000 for the equivilant points, at places we like to visit.  So as enrolled owners we have the best of both worlds.  Friends who spent $30,000 for 3000 points and who are still working folks have difficulty finding what they want when they want with their points.  They would need a very large additional investment to have decent flexibility and are disappointed.

It would take a huge number of new properties available only thru the trust to erase our owner advantage.  Anything could happen in the world before that comes true.  So why get worked up about it.  Plus, we could probably rent our high-demand properties for $10,000 or more a year if so inclined, much better than than most other investments in recent years amazingly!  Then if we need them in future years we can buy or rent points at an advantageous price. Or we can just rent the unit we want.  Yes, if we want to sell our timeshares we will take a loss.  But it would be foolish to look at it that way as we'll have had the pleasure of using them for years by then.  Which could be thought of as depreciation.  There is no doubt that enrolled owners have the best of the old and new.


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## pipet (Jun 30, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Are we making an assumption that the future Points consumer is actually looking for the same product as the legacy consumer has to offer from 10 years past?  Is the point’s consumer of tomorrow the same as the legacy week consumer of yesterday?



I am not sure what you mean by this, but the "product" MOXJO7282 has is an OF week at MOC, and people will still want those weeks.  HI is _not_ ideal for short stays.  The only advantage points has IMO is to extend a vacation or get mid-week flight, but the savings in a mid-week flight is eaten up by the higher costs to rent with points.  If you simply want to extend your vacation, you can rent 2 full legacy weeks or pick up a couple of inexpensive hotel nights.

As for the point that travelers will want more short stays, then why do you need a TS at all?  Unless you are able to get a short stay for a favorable price (which is hard to do with points unless you are traveling off-season), why not just hotel it?  For 2-3 days you can live without a kitchen.  Also, most people I know who take short vacation breaks do it over the weekend, and points are much better to use Sun-Thurs, making a full-service hotel a better deal in many cases.


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## pwrshift (Jun 30, 2012)

Seems obvious to more than me that the OP has access to the MVCI sales manual.  Dumb discussion IMO.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 30, 2012)

People will always desire to go on holiday.  That is for certain.  What isn't certain is how they will chose to vacation, where they will chose to go, how long they will stay, and how much money they will spend in the future.

Where you are in your lifecycle has a great deal to do with what defines your tastes, attitude, and preferences.  What once you coveted may now be an inconvenience.  Our health, financial resources, culture, and environment also play a part in shaping our perspective on value propositions.

Saying that there will always be a market for a 69 corvette is true but as time goes on that demographic is minimized as newer products materialize and become iconic themselves and will attract a newer generation of followers.

Music is a perfect example of this in the marketplace.  Time Life publications have made a business of selling generational tunes to the millions.  They don't try to sell eighty's hits to Gen Y's (Millennials) because they know that is not their target audience.

Will the Presidents oceanfront week at MOC continue to be desirable in the future?  Possibly but to who?  President’s week is only a denotation on the US calendar.  Would Japanese, Chinese, or Latin Americans care about that week as we Americans do?


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 30, 2012)

pwrshift said:


> Seems obvious to more than me that the OP has access to the MVCI sales manual.  Dumb discussion IMO.



Your right, maybe a better sales/marketing discussion would be the rise and fall of Canada's beloved Research in Motion.

The technology company with the poorest marketing group in history.  This will be studied across Universities for years to come.

The company who for years failed to realize that what people wanted was not what they we offering and continued to produce lackluster products after another.

The market shifted, the competitors multiplied, RIM stayed the same!

They are on their death bed as we speak and it’s a crying shame because of what they once were in the marketplace.


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## GaryDouglas (Jun 30, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Your right, maybe a better sales/marketing discussion would be the rise and fall of Canada's beloved Research in Motion.
> 
> The technology company with the poorest marketing group in history. This will be studied across Universities for years to come.
> 
> ...


 
Sounds like "Kill the messenger"...


----------



## windje2000 (Jun 30, 2012)

Beefnot said:


> I believe you and I and billymach4 are the only ones who have taken the red pill.  I felt like Charlton Heston screaming "Soylent Green is people!" in that thread.



Congrats on 1,000 posts.  You're not the only ones who took the 'red pill'.


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## pipet (Jun 30, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> People will always desire to go on holiday. That is for certain. What isn't certain is how they will chose to vacation, where they will chose to go, how long they will stay, and how much money they will spend in the future.



Really????  This argument is so weak, it nearly leaves me dumbfounded.  Maybe you are speaking of eons in the future perhaps where earth is very different or the resort disappears to some cataclysmic event/hurricane, but in the recorded human history that we have, people have always desired beautiful locations by the ocean such as HI.  You SERIOUSLY think human desires will change that significantly over the lifetime of the resort??? 



FractionalTraveler said:


> Will the Presidents oceanfront week at MOC continue to be desirable in the future?  Possibly but to who?  President’s week is only a denotation on the US calendar.



FYI, Feb also is a great time for seeing whales (another thing humans have been fascinated with for the course of our history!).   The week is already in demand without needing an up-and-coming Chinese or Latin American middle class, and the Japanese already have somewhat restricted travel patterns (which occasionally will overlap with this week).   

The limitations to HI (or other top destinations) are mostly economic rather than having anything to do with people's desires.  I'd list the top 3 limitations for travel to HI as 1. the cost of plane tix 2. people getting time off work (Pres week does help US residents), and 3. the duration of the flight. We just found out what a terrible economy would do to HI: HI tourism weakened but did not implode, and some owners reduced the rental fee a little, but the desire to go was still there with people.



pwrshift said:


> Seems obvious to more than me that the OP has access to the MVCI sales manual.


  Even the sales manual would make more compelling arguments; it's the only reason I don't subscribe to the red pill.


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## MikeB2620 (Jun 30, 2012)

Since Fractional Traveler likes these exchanges amongst TUG members, maybe he would like to ante up and join. With 400+ posts you would think he would like to support the medium he uses for his discussions, rather than just being.a guest.


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## pwrshift (Jun 30, 2012)

I suspect FT is having financial difficulties, like the timeshare business.  Strange how RIM got dragged into this discussion...but while you're at it, how about AOL, Blockbuster, Palm, HP, Polaroid, Xerox, Kodak, etc.  All good history lessons.



FractionalTraveler said:


> Your right, maybe a better sales/marketing discussion would be the rise and fall of Canada's beloved Research in Motion.
> The technology company with the poorest marketing group in history.  This will be studied across Universities for years to come. The company who for years failed to realize that what people wanted was not what they we offering and continued to produce lackluster products after another. The market shifted, the competitors multiplied, RIM stayed the same! They are on their death bed as we speak and it’s a crying shame because of what they once were in the marketplace.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 30, 2012)

MikeB2620 said:


> Since Fractional Traveler likes these exchanges amongst TUG members, maybe he would like to ante up and join. With 400+ posts you would think he would like to support the medium he uses for his discussions, rather than just being.a guest.



Paid for a 3 year membership on day 1.  Got tired of e-mailing system administrators for the e-mail which contains the code to unlock.  Got no response from anyone.

Not worried about it.  When the three years are up, I'm sure someone will be diligent to remind me to pay up again.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jun 30, 2012)

pwrshift said:


> I suspect FT is having financial difficulties, like the timeshare business.  Strange how RIM got dragged into this discussion...but while you're at it, how about AOL, Blockbuster, Palm, HP, Polaroid, Xerox, Kodak, etc.  All good history lessons.



Yes, I agree these are good examples as well.


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## dioxide45 (Jun 30, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Paid for a 3 year membership on day 1.  Got tired of e-mailing system administrators for the e-mail which contains the code to unlock.  Got no response from anyone.
> 
> Not worried about it.  When the three years are up, I'm sure someone will be diligent to remind me to pay up again.



Perhaps you should read this post. No e-mailing required.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jul 1, 2012)

dioxide45 said:


> I agree that the inventory isn't commingled. When someone trades a week for Marriott Reward points, MVCI can do several things with that actual week:
> 
> 
> Nothing, wait until later to take that inventory.
> ...



Dioxide,

Another interesting piece of information related to this topic is that MVCI is actually trying to sell the inventory on both Marriott.com and on marriottvacationclub.com at the same time.

I have been able to confirm through experimentation that the same inventory is being offered for sale on both sites.  In fact I have also found the same inventory being offered on Priceline.com.

As we all know Marriott.com is targeted for anyone off the street and marriottvacationclub.com is specific to people off the street that are looking for timeshares.

Have a look at this web interface: http://www.marriottvacationclub.com/vacation-specials/package-special.shtml

This is nothing more than window dressing of the marriott.com website but filtering out the hotels so that people who get to this landing page think it’s only related to MVCI properties.  It also tries to attach a promo code ES7 to the rental reservations.  This is a standard promo code Marriott.com uses for packages.

So with that being said, I think there are a lot of games being played here with inventory in order to maximize revenue.  I would think DC enrolled owners would be pretty upset if it was found that some of this inventory is not being offered to DC members for reservations but is being redirected to other portals.  I guess it depends on the source of the inventory.  Obviously, if they own the inventory they can sell and market it any way they want but I would be pretty upset if it’s not offered first to those who have paid into a system as an owner!


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## BocaBoy (Jul 1, 2012)

laurac260 said:


> Dioxide, I'm making the assumption that OP is a Marriott plant, and I'm pretty sure you are not.


Ahh.  That "Marriott plant" charge again.  Unbelievable.


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## burg1121 (Jul 1, 2012)

I don't understand why this will hurt the weeks resale value. If I had the money to buy 50000 or 60000pts and pay the higher mfs I'd just rent were I want to go. If you believe the trust is going to be building lots of new properties then good luck. They can't finish the one's they have. If the value does go down for legacy weeks then why not buy a cheap week where you want to go. The mfs will be less, you can trade with II and if it's a sold out non trust resort Marriott will need your week to make their trust program more attractive. If the trust doesn't build more resorts they need your legacy weeks more than we need trust pts. If they continue to try to devalue the DC for weeks owners they will be hurt more than we will. So buy those cheap resale weeks the OP says are coming, with lower mfs at places you want to be and have  great vacations.


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## BocaBoy (Jul 1, 2012)

MikeB2620 said:


> Since Fractional Traveler likes these exchanges amongst TUG members, maybe he would like to ante up and join. With 400+ posts you would think he would like to support the medium he uses for his discussions, rather than just being.a guest.



This is kind of like a past discussion of ARDA-ROC dues.  Many TUGGERs refuse to contribute there and happily share the benefits from resulting legislative changes.  Many guests (like me) do not join TUG because we get everything we need without paying a membership fee.  I think these are similar decisions.  I don't understand how one can be condemned and not the other.  (I do not know your views on ARDA-ROC, so don't take this as a personal criticism.)


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## FractionalTraveler (Jul 1, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Dioxide,
> 
> Another interesting piece of information related to this topic is that MVCI is actually trying to sell the inventory on both Marriott.com and on marriottvacationclub.com at the same time.
> 
> ...



3 days to go until July 4th holiday.  Marriott.com is selling a 2-BR Gulfside reservation for Crystal Shores July 3-5, 2012 to anyone off the street for $1163.80.  

You don't need to own anything, don't need to be MR member, you don’t need to be part of DC, you don't need to buy Trust points.

Does anyone want this reservation?  You can also get it at Travelocity, Priceline, Kayak, Orbitz, Cheaptickets, and Hotelclub outlets.

*That reservation is non-existent in DC!*  The reservation is past the 3 days cancellation period so why would this reservation not be offered to DC members?  Will the unit go unused if it’s not rented at the last minute?  Is this a lost opportunity for a DC member who has paid to own and will not get the chance to use this?

If you are a DC member would this make you upset?


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## Beefnot (Jul 1, 2012)

BocaBoy said:


> Ahh.  That "Marriott plant" charge again.  Unbelievable.



He is not a "plant", that much we agree on.


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## Cmore (Jul 1, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> 3 days to go until July 4th holiday.  Marriott.com is selling a 2-BR Gulfside reservation for Crystal Shores July 3-5, 2012 to anyone off the street for $1163.80.
> 
> You don't need to own anything, don't need to be MR member, you don’t need to be part of DC, you don't need to buy Trust points.
> 
> ...



How do we know that MAR doesn't hold this week from an MR points redemption.  If so, it very likely is not a trust week and MAR can do whatever they like with it.  This is do different than owners who reserve prime weeks at their home resorts and then rent them.  It's the same thing.  I would guess MAR is very good at reserving prime rental weeks when they get weeks owners (or trust owners for that matter) choosing to take MR points for their "owned" holdings.

To me it makes perfect sense that Marriott.com and DC inventory are separate and not equal.   I am also sure they do some horse-trading upon an agreed upon basis and that doesn't mean that there is anything sinister going on.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jul 1, 2012)

Cmore said:


> How do we know that MAR doesn't hold this week from an MR points redemption.  If so, it very likely is not a trust week and MAR can do whatever they like with it.  This is do different than owners who reserve prime weeks at their home resorts and then rent them.  It's the same thing.  I would guess MAR is very good at reserving prime rental weeks when they get weeks owners (or trust owners for that matter) choosing to take MR points for their "owned" holdings.
> 
> To me it makes perfect sense that Marriott.com and DC inventory are separate and not equal.   I am also sure they do some horse-trading upon an agreed upon basis and that doesn't mean that there is anything sinister going on.



Cmore,

This reservation is not available for MR point redemption.  I do understand that if the inventory belongs to them, then they can do whatever they want but as a DC member I would have expected that DC members could have access to that reservation as well.

Also consider that we have no way of knowing if this reservation does in fact belong to them and if they are playing fairly.

I think this is slightly different from other owners reserving prime weeks for rentals.  These rental owners don't also have to feed other reservation channels as Marriott does.  Marriott has to try to balance the needs of legacy owners, DC members, and Trust point owners that’s a bit harder I think but they should be able to do this in a fair manner.

To me I understand them trying to rent it out to cover their MF and make money but as as a DC owner I think it’s also reasonable to make that reservation available to me if it hasn't been sold 1 day prior to check-in.

For sure if the reservation is not booked then they loose and DC owners also loose and I think that's not a desirable result for anyone.


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## Cmore (Jul 1, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> Cmore,
> 
> This reservation is not available for MR point redemption.  I do understand that if the inventory belongs to them, then they can do whatever they want but as a DC member I would have expected that DC members could have access to that reservation as well.
> 
> ...



Perhaps the linkage between MAR and MVW is not as tight as it could/should be.    We do have to realize that none of us have the formula to the "secret sauce" as to how they move inventory and related compensation between themselves.  

Personally, I think once time is redeemed for MR points - its free game for Marriott.com to do with what they like and nothing is owed to any T/S owner be it DC or weeks.   That said, I agree it is best for them to monetize the available time in one form or another and not leave it vacant.


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## wesley (Jul 1, 2012)

*An interesting experiment...*

Greetings Tuggers,

I just completed a mildly interesting and somewhat mind-numbing experiment on this quiet Sunday night.  By way of background, we own MOW (developer purchase in 2003 for about 20K, enrolled it in DC in 2010), and BPT EOY (bought on resale about 4 years ago for about 2K) and (drumroll please), we own 1,000 DC points.  We bought into points in 2010 for 9 dollars ea (800 bonus for purchase). They waived the week enrollment fee at the time.  We bought the flexibility/short stay argument.  And I figured "Heck, maintenance is only 400 per year, what's not to like?  Every three years or so we can take a nice vacation for a week, having paid $1,200 maintenance", so it was sorta like an EOY (except an every third year).  I realized at the time that I was paying a lot for an EOTHIRD, relative to the resale market, but we liked the "go anywhere aspect" and, as mentioned, the option of shorter stays.

We'll be in Aruba in Nov for our first use.  Couldn't get a whole week, so we reserved five nites.  Total cost for five nites is 2225 - we banked our '11 and used our 12 points (1,000 per), plus we borrowed a bit from '13...

Now to the experiment, which actually didn't work out very well.... or not like I thought.  My premise was that there was a LOT of timesharing we could do for 3,000 points in the DC system, and thus my ETHIRDYEAR logic wasn't too bad.  Well it turns out that, of the total of  2,213 weeklong stays in the VC Club points chart (all seasons, all views, all sizes), only 622 (28%) can be had for 3,000 points or less.  So we have to go to five years or so before we draw some serious "coin"  (good weeks in good seasons).  So now I'm up to 2K in  maintenance.   Much less attractive.   

So in hindsight, I wish we had bought another resale week rather than shelled out the 9K for points.  We have the $400, so it doesn't hurt each year, which is why I don't stew about it.  If I think about in value terms I get depressed, so I don't....   And we'll enjoy Aruba I'm sure...

28%  geeeezzz  I thought it would be a lot higher than that

Thanks to TUG and this great forum!!!

Wesley


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## BocaBum99 (Jul 1, 2012)

wesley said:


> Greetings Tuggers,
> 
> I just completed a mildly interesting and somewhat mind-numbing experiment on this quiet Sunday night.  By way of background, we own MOW (developer purchase in 2003 for about 20K, enrolled it in DC in 2010), and BPT EOY (bought on resale about 4 years ago for about 2K) and (drumroll please), we own 1,000 DC points.  We bought into points in 2010 for 9 dollars ea (800 bonus for purchase). They waived the week enrollment fee at the time.  We bought the flexibility/short stay argument.  And I figured "Heck, maintenance is only 400 per year, what's not to like?  Every three years or so we can take a nice vacation for a week, having paid $1,200 maintenance", so it was sorta like an EOY (except an every third year).  I realized at the time that I was paying a lot for an EOTHIRD, relative to the resale market, but we liked the "go anywhere aspect" and, as mentioned, the option of shorter stays.
> 
> ...



You figured out what I figured out before I converted.  The Marriott points system sucks.  It won't kill legacy weeks as the OP suggests.  And, it won't be any fun playing with because the rental points market is virtually non existent and the points for rent there are so high, it's cheaper to rent than to own.


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## FractionalTraveler (Jul 2, 2012)

FractionalTraveler said:


> 3 days to go until July 4th holiday.  Marriott.com is selling a 2-BR Gulfside reservation for Crystal Shores July 3-5, 2012 to anyone off the street for $1163.80.
> 
> You don't need to own anything, don't need to be MR member, you don’t need to be part of DC, you don't need to buy Trust points.
> 
> ...




28 hours to go with this experiment and it looks like someone might have booked this reservation on Marriott.com since I can't see it anymore.  Never saw it over on myvacationclub.com anyways.

Marriott hedged their bets and possibly won big with 1 day to go.


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## MOXJO7282 (Jul 2, 2012)

BocaBum99 said:


> You figured out what I figured out before I converted.  The Marriott points system sucks.  It won't kill legacy weeks as the OP suggests.  And, it won't be any fun playing with because the rental points market is virtually non existent and the points for rent there are so high, it's cheaper to rent than to own.



I actually think the points program has enhanced the value of legacy weeks, at least from the perspective I care about which is rental demand and associated income.

So far since the points program my weeks rentals have never been better. Just since this thread started a few days ago I rented two units, for 2013 already, one at maximum rental ever, my July 4th Kauai Beach Club and a Pres week Maui at close to max rental ever. The KBC I just put up a few days ago and two different people expressed interest and one took it at list. And I rented a different Maui for 2013 already as well so demand is very high.

I thought it was so ironic that here is someone saying the sky is going to fall on legacy weeks and rentals couldn't be better. Same thing was said when the points program was introduced so its just the same thing different day.


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## billymach4 (Jul 2, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> I actually think the points program has enhanced the value of legacy weeks, at least from the perspective I care about which is rental demand and associated income.
> 
> So far since the points program my weeks rentals have never been better. Just since this thread started a few days ago I rented two units, for 2013 already, one at maximum rental ever, my July 4th Kauai Beach Club and a Pres week Maui at close to max rental ever. The KBC I just put up a few days ago and two different people expressed interest and one took it at list. And I rented a different Maui for 2013 already as well so demand is very high.
> 
> I thought it was so ironic that here is someone saying the sky is going to fall on legacy weeks and rentals couldn't be better. Same thing was said when the points program was introduced so its just the same thing different day.



Joe, 

I agree with your analysis. In addition the legacy weeks will be more valuable in II as well, since the II pool will begin to dissipate.


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## dioxide45 (Jul 2, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> I actually think the points program has enhanced the value of legacy weeks, at least from the perspective I care about which is rental demand and associated income.
> 
> So far since the points program my weeks rentals have never been better. Just since this thread started a few days ago I rented two units, for 2013 already, one at maximum rental ever, my July 4th Kauai Beach Club and a Pres week Maui at close to max rental ever. The KBC I just put up a few days ago and two different people expressed interest and one took it at list. And I rented a different Maui for 2013 already as well so demand is very high.
> 
> I thought it was so ironic that here is someone saying the sky is going to fall on legacy weeks and rentals couldn't be better. Same thing was said when the points program was introduced so its just the same thing different day.



You really can't give any credence to BocaBum's comments, he bailed before giving the new program much of a chance. Bought to be able to always trade up in unit size in to prime time or rent for great prices. Probably could have still done that had he only given it the chance. Just part of the peanut gallery now.


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## Michigan Czar (Jul 2, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> I actually think the points program has enhanced the value of legacy weeks, at least from the perspective I care about which is rental demand and associated income.
> 
> So far since the points program my weeks rentals have never been better. Just since this thread started a few days ago I rented two units, for 2013 already, one at maximum rental ever, my July 4th Kauai Beach Club and a Pres week Maui at close to max rental ever. The KBC I just put up a few days ago and two different people expressed interest and one took it at list. And I rented a different Maui for 2013 already as well so demand is very high.
> 
> I thought it was so ironic that here is someone saying the sky is going to fall on legacy weeks and rentals couldn't be better. Same thing was said when the points program was introduced so its just the same thing different day.



Joe,

This has been my recent experience too, demand for my Hawaii rentals are greater than they have ever been


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## jme (Jul 2, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> I actually think the points program has enhanced the value of legacy weeks, at least from the perspective I care about which is rental demand and associated income.
> 
> So far since the points program my weeks rentals have never been better. Just since this thread started a few days ago I rented two units, for 2013 already, one at maximum rental ever, my July 4th Kauai Beach Club and a Pres week Maui at close to max rental ever. The KBC I just put up a few days ago and two different people expressed interest and one took it at list. And I rented a different Maui for 2013 already as well so demand is very high.
> 
> I thought it was so ironic that here is someone saying the sky is going to fall on legacy weeks and rentals couldn't be better. Same thing was said when the points program was introduced so its just the same thing different day.



exactly what i've been saying all along..... and the good resale weeks (best seasons, best resorts) are ticking up, not down...... slowly, but surely. in the beginning of the DC, those resale weeks were more abundant, and could be had for a deal, but more and more people now are watching, and the competition to get that deed is growing. It'll never get to where we want it to.....to the value of yesteryear, but it's still holding some value.


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