# [2020] A little stock market sense



## CO skier (Mar 12, 2020)

There are a few running stock market threads.  None of them mention a long term perspective, so here is a 20-year, long term chart 1999-present covering three Fed-induced bubbles and one idea:

The chart shows the dotcom bubble of 2000 and the housing bubble of 2008 -- and the super-duper bubble we are in now.  Really, just look at the chart and use common sense!

This is not investment advice, but from one Tugger to another, anyone close to retirement or in retirement should look at this chart and consider how much they want to have invested in the current stock market (super-duper bubble) environment and the ramifications if the selloff reaches the 50% level.  (The top of long term support on the chart is 1500 -- more than a 50% decline from the 2020 market top.  If this market bubble bottoms where the other bubbles did that would be in the range of S&P 500 at 700.  Sure, everyone laughed at S&P 700 in 2000 and 2007, but it happened.)

Sell now to protect your retirement and reinvest at much lower levels.  ymmv


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## Brett (Mar 12, 2020)

CO skier said:


> There are a few running stock market threads.  None of them mention a long term perspective, so here is a 20-year, long term chart 1999-present covering three Fed-induced bubbles and one idea:
> 
> The chart shows the dotcom bubble of 2000 and the housing bubble of 2008 -- and the super-duper bubble we are in now.  Really, just look at the chart and use common sense!
> 
> ...



OK, so you believe the stock market will keep going lower and now is the time to sell 
Not sure that's a good long term strategy but    ......  YMMV


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## bogey21 (Mar 12, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Anyone close to retirement or in retirement should look at this chart and consider how much they want to have invested in the current stock market...



I made the decision when I retired.  My answer was zero.  Foregoing appreciation was immaterial.  Avoiding the mental anguish from market gyrations was paramount.   I am still happy with my decision...


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 12, 2020)

I think what the OP is getting at is about capital preservation. If anyone is at or near retirement age - capital preservation is important. Most baby boomers have may too much portfolio exposure in stocks vs other hedged investments. Therefore if we enter a secular bear market - their portfolios suffer significant capital degradation which can be dangerous. Anyone at or close to retirement, especially if you will be reliant on your capital for income, should have no more than 30% market exposure. Even if you are not reliant on your portfolio for income, I would not exceed 50% exposure. Of course this is just my opinion. 

My portfolio is hedged fairly well right now - I exited stocks early last week on Tuesday except for a couple allocations in income funds which also focus on capital preservation. I’m still down about 3-4% at present - but that’s a helluva lot better than 28%. I will then buy back in when we see the volatility indexes ratchet down and start seeing a more steady trend that the fundamentals are heading in the right direction. 

I’ve got friends who are more risk tolerant who bought into FAZ at the same time I got out, and are up well over 50% due to the market drops. Sigh...


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## Brett (Mar 12, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I think what the OP is getting at is about capital preservation. If anyone is at or near retirement age - capital preservation is important. Most baby boomers have may too much portfolio exposure in stocks vs other hedged investments. Therefore if we enter a secular bear market - their portfolios suffer significant capital degradation which can be dangerous. Anyone at or close to retirement, especially if you will be reliant on your capital for income, should have no more than 30% market exposure. Even if you are not reliant on your portfolio for income, I would not exceed 50% exposure. Of course this is just my opinion.
> 
> My portfolio is hedged fairly well right now - I exited stocks early last week on Tuesday except for a couple allocations in income funds which also focus on capital preservation. I’m still down about 3-4% at present - but that’s a helluva lot better than 28%. I will then buy back in when we see the volatility indexes ratchet down and start seeing a more steady trend that the fundamentals are heading in the right direction.
> 
> ...



those with amazing clairvoyant foresight to "exit stocks" in the week before the "secular bear" market occurs are in a good position


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## OutSkiing (Mar 12, 2020)

Look at the chart below and use your common sense. Over time, the market continues its upward trajectory.  Because Co Skier's chart starts on 1/1999, it miss-leads by implying the market was 'flat' up until this recent bull market that began in 2009. In fact there has been constant upward movement in fits and spurts.

Sir John Templeton's famous saying was the 4 most expensive words in the English language are "this time Its different".  Sitting on the sidelines for 20+ years of retirement could cause your nest egg to be worth significantly less in inflated dollars.

Bob


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 12, 2020)

Brett said:


> those with amazing clairvoyant foresight to "exit stocks" in the week before the "secular bear" market occurs are in a good position



I’ve managed to do this twice over the past 20 years - but I spend a TON of time on market analytics and it’s what I went to school to learn how to do (finance, economics and securities analysis). Ironically I work in technology now and finance and economics is my hobby. The most valuable commodity that I know of is information. Chance favors the prepared mind IME. 

I didn’t call the bottom last time (Great Recession) but was within a 10% margin which is plenty good enough for me. 

Wall Street will tell you - never time the market and always be invested - and then everyone on the street does the exact opposite to make real money. Don’t believe everything you hear - oftentimes what we are told is to give advantage to those who need the rest of us to “buy and hold” so that they can short the markets and make serious money on the way down. This is exactly how guys like Bloomberg and many others on the street made billions during down markets. 

Read the book BullsEye Investing by John Mauldin - it will challenge a lot of the commonly accepted assumptions regarding what most people are told to do with regard to investing best practices. It certainly did for me many years ago. 


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## Brett (Mar 12, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I’ve managed to do this twice over the past 20 years - but I spend a TON of time on market analytics and it’s what I went to school to learn how to do (finance, economics and securities analysis). Ironically I work in technology now and finance and economics is my hobby. The most valuable commodity that I know of is information. Chance favors the prepared mind IME.
> 
> I didn’t call the bottom last time (Great Recession) but was within a 10% margin which is plenty good enough for me.
> Wall Street will tell you - never time the market and always be invested - and then everyone on the street does the exact opposite to make real money. Don’t believe everything you hear - oftentimes what we are told is to give advantage to those who need the rest of us to “buy and hold” so that they can short the markets and make serious money on the way down. This is exactly how guys like Bloomberg and many others on the street made billions during down markets.
> ...



so ironic -  with your hobby skills you could make millions (billions?)  as a hedge fund manager !

So you believe Michael Bloomberg made his billions* timing and shorting the markets *and not with Bloomberg Financial
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/11/heres-why-mike-bloomberg-is-so-rich.html


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 12, 2020)

OutSkiing said:


> Look at the chart below and use your common sense. Over time, the market continues its upward trajectory. Because Co Skier's chart starts on 1/1999, it miss-leads by implying the market was 'flat' up until this recent bull market that began in 2009. In fact there has been constant upward movement in fits and spurts.
> 
> Sir John Templeton's famous saying was the 4 most expensive words in the English language are "this time Its different". Sitting on the sidelines for 20+ years of retirement could cause your nest egg to be worth significantly less in inflated dollars.
> 
> ...



Actually the chart you showed makes the point with regard to secular bull and secular bear markets. Not to be confused with the commonly termed bull and bear markets that we hear on the news shows. A secular market analysis has to do with PE ratios over time. The average cycle is about 20 years on average but it can vary. Secular bear markets are characterized by volatility and by declining macro PE ratios during the time period - PE ratios start out very high and decline to lows during the defined time period. Secular bull markets are characterized by upward PE ratios from low high.

Let’s look at the chart you shared with this in mind:






From 1910-1929 - the roaring 20’s as they were known - secular bull market.

1930-1950 - secular bear market 
1950-1965 - secular bull market 
1965-1980 - secular bear market 
1980-2000 - secular bull market 
2000-2010 - secular bear market
2010-???? - secular bull market

The last couple of decades don’t fit the pattern - but then again we had a major financial crisis and with the massive bailout by the Fed and massive QE we artificially propped up the markets and have caused bubbles to form that are unprecedented in history. So the pattens may change as a result. Past performance does not always predict future performance.

That said, we are near all time high PE ratios prior to the start of this latest shock. Why do secular markets matter? Because many people don’t really have a 40+ year investment horizon. Many realistically have 20 good years for their investments. Say you did what you were told and exercised “buy and hold” primarily in stocks from 1965-1985 - what was your total return over that 20 year time period? Zero. Same with pretty much all of the secular bear market time periods listed above. 

So while the street will say it’s best to always be invested, and they will say that historically the market returns 10% per annum over the long term, and technically that may be true, the data teaches us that the timing and duration of your investments as it relates to secular markets is very important. Especially if you have a limited duration during which your retirement savings is invested in the stock markets. 

If you are investing at the start of a secular bull market - buy and hold is everyone’s friend and index funds work best. If you are investing at the start of a secular bear market then buy and hold doesn’t work and index funds do not work well. Zero returns is often the result during secular bear markets since PE ratios are declining during that period of time. Therefore capital preservation during secular bear markets is especially important. 

How can we validate that this all has some truth to it? Look at what accredited investors can access. One of the major advantages of hedge funds is that, unlike most mutual funds, hedge funds can employ leverage, shorts, options, really anything, and can go to 100% cash without any oversight. Mutual funds always must have a certain amount of their capital invested and can only invest based on the fund charter. This is in part why the rich get richer and the poor stay poor. The rich have accredited investor status and literally have access to hedged investments that the vast majority of normal investors cannot ever use. So when normal investors are losing money in a secular bear market, hedge funds are making money. In this respect, at least based upon my experience - there are two Americas out there - especially when it comes to investments. 


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 12, 2020)

Brett said:


> so ironic - with your hobby skills you could make millions (billions?) as a hedge fund manager !
> 
> So you believe Michael Bloomberg made his billions* timing and shorting the markets *and not with Bloomberg Financial
> https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/11/heres-why-mike-bloomberg-is-so-rich.html



Ask anyone who actually works on the street how Bloomberg practically doubled his net worth during the Great Recession - he built a financial software empire and sure that’s a part of why he has done well. He also used that complex software to short the hell out of the market in 2008 - and made billions via shadow banking. He’s worth far more than whatever Forbes estimates - it’s just hidden. You have no idea how much wealth is out there that was created with shadow banking and investing over the past 20 years and is “off book” and hidden in offshore accounts and investments.


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## Brett (Mar 12, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> Actually the chart you showed makes the point with regard to secular bull and secular bear markets. Not to be confused with the commonly termed bull and bear markets that we hear on the news shows. A secular market analysis has to do with PE ratios over time. The average cycle is about 20 years on average but it can vary. Secular bear markets are characterized by volatility and by declining macro PE ratios during the time period - PE ratios start out very high and decline to lows during the defined time period. Secular bull markets are characterized by upward PE ratios from low high.
> 
> Let’s look at the chart you shared with this in mind:
> 
> ...



I guess it's all about getting "accredited" investor status and investing at the *end *of a "secular bear market" .... aka "shadow banking"
So that's how the *B*illionaires make their billions


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 12, 2020)

Brett said:


> I guess it's all about getting "accredited" investor status and investing at the *end *of a "secular bear market" .... aka "shadow banking"
> So that's how the *B*illionaires make their billions



I value information and education, and sharing what I’ve learned. If you don’t like what I’m sharing, please move on and refrain from the backhanded compliments as they add zero value to these threads. 


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## Brett (Mar 12, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I value information and education, and sharing what I’ve learned. If you don’t like what I’m sharing, please move on and refrain from the backhanded compliments as they add zero value to these threads.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



OK ... I'll continue to be a non-accredited, secular 'buy and hold' investor
(with periodic rebalancing from equities to fixed income)


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 12, 2020)

Brett said:


> OK ... I'll continue to be a non-accredited, secular 'buy and hold' investor
> (with periodic rebalancing from equities to fixed income)



Sounds good - to each his own I always say. One persons trash is another persons treasure. Just because something works for you doesn’t mean it works for everyone else, because investors have different risk tolerances. 

I’m glad to hear you are using rebalancing from equities into fixed income funds. That is a wise practice - but chances are it won’t work very well in a secular bear market - because unless you are a stock picking genius - and are willing to time the markets to capture equity capital appreciation at market highs and rebalance into fixed income - playing on the volatility that characterizes secular bear markets - then your approach won’t work. If you are actually doing this - then you are timing the markets as well - just in a different manner.

If you would like to actually provide a factual response that argues against what I’ve said - please feel free to do so. I’ve done the math, I clearly outlined that during secular bear markets the net return on equities (indexes) is zero - and the chart clearly shows that at various time periods throughout market history this is 100% accurate - anyone can see it. When you take into account inflation - it’s actually less than zero. 

What I do isn’t for everyone, I wouldn’t recommend it for everyone either. But many people on the street do this every day - that’s how Wall Street has created such large amounts of wealth over time, especially the investment houses. 

Do you think Warren Buffett, the king of long term value investing, solely employs buy and hold? Look at how much cash BH is sitting on right now compared to ten years ago - because the market is overvalued - BH dumped the majority of their holdings and took profits over the past several year years, and he’s waiting to buy back in once PE ratios come back to earth. My style is similar to how Warren Buffett invests. So I ask, what is your issue? 


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## Brett (Mar 12, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> Sounds good - to each his own I always say. One persons trash is another persons treasure. Just because something works for you doesn’t mean it works for everyone else, because investors have different risk tolerances.
> 
> I’m glad to hear you are using rebalancing from equities into fixed income funds. That is a wise practice - but chances are it won’t work very well in a secular bear market - because unless you are a stock picking genius - and are willing to time the markets to capture equity capital appreciation at market highs and rebalance into fixed income - playing on the volatility that characterizes secular bear markets - then your approach won’t work. If you are actually doing this - then you are timing the markets as well - just in a different manner.
> 
> ...



hey, you're the king of timing the market, -  selling right before the downturns, buying before the upturns and making loads of $$ - congratz
I'm just a lowly buy and hold long term investor - that's all
(with periodically rebalancing from equities to fixed income)


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## CO skier (Mar 12, 2020)

OutSkiing said:


> Look at the chart below and use your common sense. Over time, the market continues its upward trajectory.  Because Co Skier's chart starts on 1/1999, it miss-leads by implying the market was 'flat' up until this recent bull market that began in 2009. In fact there has been constant upward movement in fits and spurts.
> 
> Sir John Templeton's famous saying was the 4 most expensive words in the English language are "this time Its different".  Sitting on the sidelines for 20+ years of retirement could cause your nest egg to be worth significantly less in inflated dollars.
> 
> Bob


You completely missed the point of my post.  My point is that "this time is the same as 2000 and 2008."  Sell high, buy low.  It is not difficult to see this for the current situation looking at a long term chart.  Those who are at or near retirement should preserve the excellent gains they have enjoyed, and not wait for the S&P to drop to 1500 or 700.

There is also something wrong with the data for the chart you posted.  I distinctly remember the S&P 500 bottoming at 666 (for coincidental, unrelated reasons) in March, 2009.  The graph you posted shows the S&P 500 bottoming out in the 900-ish area.


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## CO skier (Mar 12, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> One of the major advantages of hedge funds is that, unlike most mutual funds, hedge funds can employ leverage, shorts, options, really anything, and can go to 100% cash without any oversight.


Educated, individual investors enjoy the same privileges.    

I sold everything with a click of a button, then dollar cost averaged into QID over two days.  Sold the QID today at the click of a button for a 39% gain in less than two weeks -- no reason to get greedy.  Now I will sit in cash until this selloff reaches the 40% mark, and start to dollar cost average back into the market for the upside swing.  If the market does not sell off to the 40% level, I will get back into the market when it moves upward 10% on low volatility from the lows.  Mutual funds do not have that luxury.


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 12, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Educated, individual investors enjoy the same privileges.



Yes they do - that’s what I’ve done as well. It would be nice to have access to a hedge fund with a good manager that could do this on my behalf though. 

I lost a bit two Monday’s ago - but otherwise I’m on the sidelines waiting. By sidelines I don’t mean cash - I’m actually holding an absolute return fund with a good track record. 

I could change my mind based upon market research and changes in the leading and lagging indicators, but at the present time I’m of the mind that until we see Q1 2020 GDP advance estimates, I will remain on the sidelines. I suspect advance GDP estimates will come in lower across the globe, along with the continued proliferation of COVID-19, makes for continued downward overall market trends Ofer the next few months. I’m sure we will continue to see volatile market swings largely based upon the news cycles day to day and week to week in the interim. 


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## OutSkiing (Mar 13, 2020)

CO skier said:


> My point is that "this time is the same as 2000 and 2008." Sell high, buy low.


Got it.  I thought you were advocating to 'sell out of stocks and never return'.  I think a buy and hold investor would be better off waiting for a market recovery. It would be a huge mistake to miss out on the rebound of a V shaped recovery if you've already followed it this far down.


CO skier said:


> I sold everything with a click of a button, then dollar cost averaged into QID over two days.


You can dollar cost average over two days?  What is the frequency of buys when you do that? Can you cancel out of your remaining buys if things turn south (or north as the case may be). You must have been pretty confident of a continued drop.


CO skier said:


> Sold the QID today at the click of a button for a 39% gain in less than two weeks -- no reason to get greedy.


So you do think the market could bounce back quickly.


CO skier said:


> Now I will sit in cash until this selloff reaches the 40% mark, and start to dollar cost average back into the market for the upside swing.  If the market does not sell off to the 40% level, I will get back into the market when it moves upward 10% on low volatility from the lows.  Mutual funds do not have that luxury.


Neither do funds managed by a money manager, where most of mine is. It's tempting to be more more self sufficient though I worry I would not be watching the market closely enough.

Bob


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## OutSkiing (Mar 13, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> A secular market analysis has to do with PE ratios over time.


I see what you are saying and agree that hedge funds and sharp investors can work around what you call a 'secular bear' market in ways that outperform the buy and hold strategy during those periods.

I have also read just about every book that Ken Fisher has written and tend to trust his thinking. He has 'debunked' the widely held and intuitive belief that low PE ratios are a value and buying stocks with high PE ratios is 'expensive'. He literally cannot find a correlation that says buying stocks (or in markets) with low PE ratios leads to higher returns than buying those with high PE ratios.  He has also similarly 'debunked' the theory that there are secular bear markets.  Also, he has shown evidence that investors who attempt to 'work the market' tend to earn on average a lower return than the market as a whole.

Interesting stuff.

Bob


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## easyrider (Mar 14, 2020)

I think Exon was a good deal this morning. It might go lower but geezy peezy, its over 50% lower than the 52 week high. I was thinking about Royal Caribbean. Maybe by Tuesday if I'm bored. 

Bill


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## geekette (Mar 14, 2020)

easyrider said:


> I think Exon was a good deal this morning. It might go lower but geezy peezy, its over 50% lower than the 52 week high. I was thinking about Royal Caribbean. Maybe by Tuesday if I'm bored.
> 
> Bill


RCL will likely be a good buy.  Cruising may take a hit for a while, but so many people love cruising that I don't see permanent harm to the company.  Not sure what, if anything, they are doing for idled employees.  I hope they have committed to paying them through this, especially the contract workers.


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## Big Matt (Mar 14, 2020)

Is Warren Buffet selling?


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## Brett (Mar 14, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> Is Warren Buffet selling?



maybe ... does it matter?
*https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/22/5-reasons-warren-buffett-didnt-beat-the-market-ove.aspx*


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## bogey21 (Mar 14, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I value information and education, and sharing what I’ve learned. If you don’t like what I’m sharing, please move on and refrain from the backhanded compliments as they add zero value to these threads.



IMO your opinions. positions or whatever one wants to call them are a heck of a lot more right than wrong.  I used to be heavily involved in markets/investing but since I retired 20 years ago it has passed me by.  I live in a CCRC where most of my fellow residents are between 80 and 100 years old.  Most have more a lot money than they need.  When they ask me for investment advice I usually (there are exceptions) tell them if I were in their shoes I would have everything in a FDIC Insured CDs regardless of their rate of return or, for those who don't trust Banks, in Low Duration Bond Funds or sometimes in GNMA Pass Throughs.  Most of the time my advice is based on their understanding what I am talking about.  For the record when I retired I had the option of a large lump sum or monthly Pension payments (essentially and annuity) for life with a Survivor Benefit for my ex-wife.  I chose the annuity and am happy I did...

George


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## CO skier (Mar 15, 2020)

OutSkiing said:


> Got it.  I thought you were advocating to 'sell out of stocks and never return'.


"Sell now to protect your retirement and reinvest at much lower levels. "  That is an important point that I included in my original post.



OutSkiing said:


> You can dollar cost average over two days?  What is the frequency of buys when you do that? Can you cancel out of your remaining buys if things turn south (or north as the case may be). You must have been pretty confident of a continued drop.


I have three accounts.  The bulk of my retirement savings is in a self-directed IRA rollover of various employer 401Ks over the years; a Roth IRA; a basic brokerage account.  When the Nasdaq 100 crossed below the 10-day average on February 21, I sold them all at 3 p.m. Mountain Time, when it looked like it would close below the 10-day average.  I invested 50% of the rollover IRA into QID at 15:42:03 for $19.9999/share.

On February 25 at 11:22:32, my QID limit order for the other 50% of the rollover account filled at $22.0999.  I entered the order because it looked like there was legs to the downside.  I was confident enough that the market was headed lower, but I know there are never guarantees.

I intended to buy more QID over the next and following day using the other two accounts, but the market moved too fast, and I did not want to chase it.  They remained in cash the whole time.



OutSkiing said:


> So you do think the market could bounce back quickly.


The current market is waaaay overdue for a short-covering bounce, and especially from these support levels.  Which is why I did not hesitate to sell into the oversold conditions of a one-day, 10% sell off (20% gain for me).  Plus, a 39% gain in a few weeks is a once in a lifetime trade; it will only happen to the downside.  I am a firm believer in the old Wall Street adage that, "Bulls make money, Bears make money; Pigs get slaughtered."

A 10% bounce happened yesterday (Friday), but it looked like a hit job in the last hour from the Plunge Protection Team.  I have no confidence in the sustainability.  It looked like a gift to sell out for those who were burned by the Thursday sell off.

Bounce back to new highs?  Not for years.


We are living through unprecedented times.  There were no grocery store buying panics in the 2008 financial crisis.  I think we will see in this current bear market, a 14% sell off in one day that triggers a second-in-the-day timeout for stock trading.  With the news feed over this weekend, it may happen on Monday.  The US government is step-wise shutting down the American economy.  If the Mexico and Canadian borders close, that would also likely trigger a massive sell off.  This is no time to have any money at risk to the long side in the stock market, especially considering how overpriced it STILL is.  jmo, and that is how I am protecting my retirement.

The economic impact and financial panic will be 1,000 times worse than the Corona virus disease.


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 15, 2020)

OutSkiing said:


> I see what you are saying and agree that hedge funds and sharp investors can work around what you call a 'secular bear' market in ways that outperform the buy and hold strategy during those periods.
> 
> I have also read just about every book that Ken Fisher has written and tend to trust his thinking. He has 'debunked' the widely held and intuitive belief that low PE ratios are a value and buying stocks with high PE ratios is 'expensive'. He literally cannot find a correlation that says buying stocks (or in markets) with low PE ratios leads to higher returns than buying those with high PE ratios. He has also similarly 'debunked' the theory that there are secular bear markets. Also, he has shown evidence that investors who attempt to 'work the market' tend to earn on average a lower return than the market as a whole.
> 
> ...



I like some of Fisher’s work as well, and very much agree with what you’ve written here with respect to purchasing individual equities based upon either low or high PE ratios. I’m referring to the overall average PE ratio of the entire market - that is what secular market analytics are about. This can be easily observed by the metrics. 






I would never recommend attempting to time the market as a general rule.


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 15, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> Is Warren Buffet selling?



Warren Buffett does most of his buying and selling via Berkshire-Hathaway. BH is sitting on a huge pile of cash since there aren’t much worthwhile value investments out there. Here’s a chart that shows BH’s cash holdings up through 2016, it’s even higher now, purported to be over 130B as of late last year. 







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## bluehende (Mar 15, 2020)

CO skier said:


> "Sell now to protect your retirement and reinvest at much lower levels. "  That is an important point that I included in my original post.
> 
> 
> I have three accounts.  The bulk of my retirement savings is in a self-directed IRA rollover of various employer 401Ks over the years; a Roth IRA; a basic brokerage account.  When the Nasdaq 100 crossed below the 10-day average on February 21, I sold them all at 3 p.m. Mountain Time, when it looked like it would close below the 10-day average.  I invested 50% of the rollover IRA into QID at 15:42:03 for $19.9999/share.
> ...



I am with you on the action Friday and even made a small bet.  With normal portfolio moves I went into this under invested in stocks.   Twice in the last two weeks my thoughts of the market retracing half of a move has allowed me to buy and then sell at a 5 to 6 % profit.  After fridays sell I am actually less invested than before the fall.    I have this quandry of wanting to move money into the market while believing we still have quite a bit of downside to go.  I know over the years I make good decisions but many times indecision has cost me much more than I make.  The news is bound to be bad for a while but the markets are a leading indicator.  If these decisions were easy we would all be a lot wealthier than we are.


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## Big Matt (Mar 15, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> Warren Buffett does most of his buying and selling via Berkshire-Hathaway. BH is sitting on a huge pile of cash since there aren’t much worthwhile value investments out there. Here’s a chart that shows BH’s cash holdings up through 2016, it’s even higher now, purported to be over 130B as of late last year.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They were just offering to buy back shares when the B shares were at 227.  I think he knows he owns a great portfolio right now. My only concern (and it is small) is that he's exposed a little in the airline industry.


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 15, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> They were just offering to buy back shares when the B shares were at 227. I think he knows he owns a great portfolio right now. My only concern (and it is small) is that he's exposed a little in the airline industry.



Warren is legendary for “buying on the dip” when the fundamentals look strong long term. I suspect that while we will probably see a cyclical business recession brought on by both the supply and resulting demand side shocks due to COVID-19, that looking longer term the airlines and travel industry will eventually recover - so if anything BH will acquire shares on the way down or somewhere close to the bottom and then enjoy the ride back up. BH has done the same thing several times when we have seen precipitous market drops like we are seeing now. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## bluehende (Mar 15, 2020)

After the fed announcement the futures went limit down.  At this point there is no way to know what the damage will be at at open.  Does anybody but me think the FED looks panicked.  Right now lower rates to borrow will not influence a whole lot of demand.  I wish they had saved the bullets for when the enemy can be hit.


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## Brett (Mar 16, 2020)

bluehende said:


> After the fed announcement the futures went limit down.  At this point there is no way to know what the damage will be at at open.  Does anybody but me think the FED looks panicked.  Right now lower rates to borrow will not influence a whole lot of demand.  I wish they had saved the bullets for when the enemy can be hit.



yes, there's only so much the Federal Reserve can do when interest rates are at 0%


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## MULTIZ321 (Mar 16, 2020)

Cash is King in The Time Of Coronavirus.










						Cash Is King In The Time Of Coronavirus
					

Investors are rushing into money market funds and corporations have tapped their credit lines.




					www.forbes.com
				



.


Richard


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## Brett (Nov 24, 2020)

DOW soars past 30,000 -  stocks are in record high territory

*https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-nov-24-2020*


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## PigsDad (Nov 24, 2020)

From a post on March 14, 2020:


CO skier said:


> *Bounce back to new highs?  Not for years.*


Well, I for one am glad your prediction did not come to fruition.  

I'm also glad I have been fully invested in the market. 

This all just strengthens my belief that no one can really predict what the markets are going to do in the short or even medium term.

Kurt


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## bbodb1 (Nov 24, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> From a post on March 14, 2020:
> 
> Well, I for one am glad your prediction did not come to fruition.
> 
> ...


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## jabberwocky (Nov 24, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> This all just strengthens my belief that no one can really predict what the markets are going to do in the short or even medium term.


I predict they will go up and down.  If you don't need the money from your investments in the near term and can sleep at night knowing you should be fine.  Unless you are a pro, worrying about daily prices is a fool's game and will generally lead to overreactions.

As the saying goes, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

Sorry - just couldn't resist that one.


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## VacationForever (Nov 24, 2020)

Our investments are professionally managed and we were watching what the company was doing with our investments during the Mar downturn period and we could see them shifting out of fixed income and into equities the whole time.  Maybe they really knew what they were doing because they were the pros or maybe they got lucky but we never second guessed their actions.


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## davidvel (Nov 24, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Our investments are professionally managed and we were watching what the company was doing with our investments during the Mar downturn period and we could see them shifting out of fixed income and into equities the whole time.  Maybe they really knew what they were doing because they were the pros or maybe they got lucky but we never second guessed their actions.


It's no secret that when the market is down, and especially when it crashes big like in March, you pour money in if you want to make a lot of dough. Those that put all they had in at DOW 18,000-19,000 are feeling pretty good right now.


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## Brett (Nov 25, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Our investments are professionally managed and we were watching what the company was doing with our investments during the Mar downturn period and we could see them shifting out of fixed income and into equities the whole time.  Maybe they really knew what they were doing because they were the pros or maybe they got lucky but we never second guessed their actions.



maybe - but most "experts" have said a buy-and-hold strategy and not trying to time the market is best for investors

*https://www.wsj.com/articles/dow-30000-covid-economy-market-buy-and-hold-11606238819*


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## davidvel (Nov 25, 2020)

Brett said:


> maybe - but most "experts" have said a buy-and-hold strategy and not trying to time the market is best for investors
> 
> *https://www.wsj.com/articles/dow-30000-covid-economy-market-buy-and-hold-11606238819*


In general, that's true for the casual investor, but 11,000 point "dips" in the Dow have to be exploited. If it happens and you  say "Nope, don't want to time the market, I'll just keep dollar cost averaging," you are a foolish investor.


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## jabberwocky (Nov 25, 2020)

Even buy-and-hold investors should periodically rebalance.  Just choose one or two random dates per year well in advance (For our retirement accounts that I don't manage, I use a random date +/- 10 days from both my birthday and my wife's which are around 6 months apart).  This way you sell-high and buy-low without having to worry about timing the market.


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## davidvel (Nov 25, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> Even buy-and-hold investors should periodically rebalance.  Just choose one or two random dates per year well in advance (For our retirement accounts that I don't manage, I use a random date +/- 10 days from both my birthday and my wife's which are around 6 months apart) [and do what?].  This way you sell-high and buy-low without having to worry about timing the market.


I'm lost. What do you do every 6 months to ensure you sell high and buy low? (The correct answer will make you a billionaire.)


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## jabberwocky (Nov 25, 2020)

davidvel said:


> I'm lost. What do you do every 6 months to ensure you sell high and buy low? (The correct answer will make you a billionaire.)


A simple rebalance.  My target in our retirement funds is 80% equities (split between three different ETFs) and 15% fixed income and 5% real estate (all ETFs).  If the equity portion would rise, a portion would be sold and invested in areas that have not done as well.  It essentially forces you to sell when things have gone up, and buy when they've gone down.  You're not trying to time the market and get out at the peak or buy-in at the very bottom (and no - it won't make you a billionaire), but it does ensure things don't get out of wack.


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## Brett (Nov 25, 2020)

davidvel said:


> In general, that's true for the casual investor, but 11,000 point "dips" in the Dow have to be exploited. If it happens and you  say "Nope, don't want to time the market, I'll just keep dollar cost averaging," you are a foolish investor.



The Dow dropping 11,000 points is a serious drop!
But like the article indicates, the investor that doesn't try to time the market almost always does better


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## Brett (Nov 25, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> A simple rebalance.  My target in our retirement funds is 80% equities (split between three different ETFs) and 15% fixed income and 5% real estate (all ETFs).  If the equity portion would rise, a portion would be sold and invested in areas that have not done as well.  It essentially forces you to sell when things have gone up, and buy when they've gone down.  You're not trying to time the market and get out at the peak or buy-in at the very bottom (and no - it won't make you a billionaire), but it does ensure things don't get out of wack.



sounds like a good plan for tax deferred accounts (401k, IRA's etc)  - along with age related adjustments
taxable accounts require a similar re-balancing


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## geekette (Nov 25, 2020)

davidvel said:


> In general, that's true for the casual investor, but 11,000 point "dips" in the Dow have to be exploited. If it happens and you  say "Nope, don't want to time the market, I'll just keep dollar cost averaging," you are a foolish investor.


It is foolish to assume that dollar cost averaging doesn't catch bottoms and that dca investors have the money available at drop time. 

Just because you feel that something has to be exploited does not make it foolish not to.  Dow is 30 stocks.   Hardly a bellweather for me.


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## geekette (Nov 25, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> Even buy-and-hold investors should periodically rebalance.  Just choose one or two random dates per year well in advance (For our retirement accounts that I don't manage, I use a random date +/- 10 days from both my birthday and my wife's which are around 6 months apart).  This way you sell-high and buy-low without having to worry about timing the market.


I'm a no on this.  Rebalancing is a concept born from brokers to benefit brokers.   No way I am selling my winners twice a year.   Definitely not a "should" for my portfolios, but others are free to churn theirs at will.


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## TravelTime (Nov 25, 2020)

geekette said:


> It is foolish to assume that dollar cost averaging doesn't catch bottoms and that dca investors have the money available at drop time.
> 
> Just because you feel that something has to be exploited does not make it foolish not to.  Dow is 30 stocks.   Hardly a bellweather for me.



Totally agree with you!


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## geekette (Nov 25, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> A simple rebalance.  My target in our retirement funds is 80% equities (split between three different ETFs) and 15% fixed income and 5% real estate (all ETFs).  If the equity portion would rise, a portion would be sold and invested in areas that have not done as well.  It essentially forces you to sell when things have gone up, and buy when they've gone down.  You're not trying to time the market and get out at the peak or buy-in at the very bottom (and no - it won't make you a billionaire), but it does ensure things don't get out of wack.


Selling winners to buy losers does not at all ensure things don't get out of whack, because things get whacked by cutting the legs out from under the best horses in your stable to buy tired nags with some hope they will get better.


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## Brett (Nov 25, 2020)

geekette said:


> Selling winners to buy losers does not at all ensure things don't get out of whack, because things get whacked by cutting the legs out from under the best horses in your stable to buy tired nags with some hope they will get better.




sometimes it's difficult to predict the future of "tired nags" and thoroughbreds
10 or 15 years ago people thought General Electric was a good stock for earnings growth and it would be very foolish to buy Tesla  (or Amazon!)


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## davidvel (Nov 25, 2020)

geekette said:


> It is foolish to assume that dollar cost averaging doesn't catch bottoms and that dca investors have the money available at drop time.
> 
> Just because you feel that something has to be exploited does not make it foolish not to.  Dow is 30 stocks.   Hardly a bellweather for me.





Brett said:


> The Dow dropping 11,000 points is a serious drop!
> But like the article indicates, the investor that doesn't try to time the market almost always does better
> 
> View attachment 29019



If you don't have the $$ of course you can't buy. Never said DCA was bad, just that it is not the only way to invest. When the DOW fell below 20,000 we scrounged up every dollar in savings we had and bought lots of equities. (These are long term 10+ year investments. )

I guess we were stupid for doing so. SPOILER: We're happy we did.


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## geekette (Nov 25, 2020)

davidvel said:


> If you don't have the $$ of course you can't buy. Never said DCA was bad, just that it is not the only way to invest. When the DOW fell below 20,000 we scrounged up every dollar in savings we had and bought lots of equities. (These are long term 10+ year investments. )
> 
> I guess we were stupid for doing so. SPOILER: We're happy we did.


I called no one stupid nor foolish.


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## geekette (Nov 25, 2020)

Brett said:


> sometimes it's difficult to predict the future of "tired nags" and thoroughbreds
> 10 or 15 years ago people thought General Electric was a good stock for earnings growth and it would be very foolish to buy Tesla  (or Amazon!)


Agree, nobody knows the future.  This is partly why I am buy n hold, capturing the different cycles of a company's life.  Most any company that will endure 50-100 years will have good and bad times and stock price will reflect what investors think about those situations.   Anyone that gave GE a serious look could have seen they were going in deep in areas beyond their expertise.   Diversification is not automatically a good thing.    Research is always a good thing.  We will each interpret that research differently.    GE's demise was no secret, if one sought data.


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## DrQ (Nov 25, 2020)

geekette said:


> I'm a no on this.  Rebalancing is a concept born from brokers to benefit brokers.   No way I am selling my winners twice a year.   Definitely not a "should" for my portfolios, but others are free to churn theirs at will.


Not necessarily, I pay our FA based off the value of the portfolio, not the trades (which are no cost to us). We rebalance looking ahead to market trends.


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## Brett (Nov 25, 2020)

davidvel said:


> If you don't have the $$ of course you can't buy. Never said DCA was bad, just that it is not the only way to invest. When the DOW fell below 20,000 we scrounged up every dollar in savings we had and bought lots of equities. (These are long term 10+ year investments. )
> 
> I guess we were stupid for doing so. SPOILER: We're happy we did.



Great ! 
anyone that can predict the stock market should be very very happy.

But for others (not so clairvoyant) a diversified low cost stock index fund is recommended.
And rebalancing from stocks to fixed income as one gets older is also recommended  ...


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## jimf41 (Nov 25, 2020)

My dad was a broker on Wall Street all his life. He was there for the '29 crash. He made a lot of money, I mean serious money. He taught me two things about investing in stocks. 

First, Buy low sell high
Second, If you're not down here on the "street" don't play this game.


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## jabberwocky (Nov 25, 2020)

geekette said:


> Selling winners to buy losers does not at all ensure things don't get out of whack, because things get whacked by cutting the legs out from under the best horses in your stable to buy tired nags with some hope they will get better.


If you have a portfolio approach (I used ETF's in our retirement fund) that shouldn't be a huge concern since you're not selling completely out of the position.  It's more of a "trim" that you're making.  I'm willing to give up a bit of the upside to avoid a much larger potential downside.

Now in my taxable trading account, I'm willing to take a view on specific names.  I'm more of a contrarian so I was more than happy to load up on equities back in March/April and started selling put options since the premiums were getting quite juicy.


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## DannyTS (Nov 25, 2020)

I will tell you the "guaranteed" way of calling the bottom. When CNN and other media outlets tell you that the sky is falling wait 3 weeks then buy with both hands


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## Brett (Nov 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I will tell you the "guaranteed" way of calling the bottom. When CNN and other media outlets tell you that the sky is falling wait 3 weeks then buy with both hands



Another "_guaranteed"_ way is when a FoxNews tweeter says the economy will collapse  - immediately buy with both hands  !


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## geekette (Nov 25, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> If you have a portfolio approach (I used ETF's in our retirement fund) that shouldn't be a huge concern since you're not selling completely out of the position.  It's more of a "trim" that you're making.  I'm willing to give up a bit of the upside to avoid a much larger potential downside.
> 
> Now in my taxable trading account, I'm willing to take a view on specific names.  I'm more of a contrarian so I was more than happy to load up on equities back in March/April and started selling put options since the premiums were getting quite juicy.


I don't think in terms of "avoiding downside."  I simply want more shares of good companies, so even trimming runs counter to my mission.  Think of me as a builder, each position building themselves with divs when I'm not adding to them.

My risk is the company goes kaput, vs stock price depression.  By adding to a position over decades, the downside price issue becomes moot.   For me, LMT would have to sink below $80 to get near where I started for loss on the position.  Since I've owned, it has been great div raises and massive price run up.  I'm not in a situation where it has been tempting to sell at 100 or 200 or 300 or 400.   I'm getting fat on juicy divs and vast price appreciation should I ever care to have the dough instead.   I'm 55, could be that divs alone from this one position pays all of my monthly bills before I'm 65.   For price run up, an extreme good example in my portfolio.  They don't all quadruple in price and share significant profits with me like this one.   They could indeed have a BA experience and price cuts in half and dividend goes away.   I'd wait them out, just like I am waiting out my much smaller BA position.

Since I'm not an ETF person, these are company-by-company decisions.   It's easy for me, since I began the buy n hold habit in my 20s.  I don't get itchy to sell or run What If scenarios through my head based on stock price up, stock price down.   I do consider the What Ifs when there is a material change to the company since I am more about long term company success (so they share increasing dividends with me) than market noise.


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## geekette (Nov 25, 2020)

DrQ said:


> Not necessarily, I pay our FA based off the value of the portfolio, not the trades (which are no cost to us). We rebalance looking ahead to market trends.


Yes, AUM is a different matter.   Rebalancing as a thing came about to get some profit from accounts just sitting there.   It was probably great money right up until fees finally stopped.  Early trading fees were much much higher long ago.   It was good money to scare people from stocks to bonds.  

Today, rebalancing is embraced as risk reduction, such as in your case.  While I don't personally subscribe to it, I can understand how asset shifts over time give people peace of mind.   Yes, stocks are the riskiest of investments (and best potential long haul reward).  However, put into context, there is a spectrum.   P&G is hardly a "lose everything you have in it" type of investment risk.   Sure, if they hit the big skids, shareholders are last.   I can live with that risk easier than I could stomach going from PG shares to their bonds.  I personally do not need the 'almost certainly a sure thing' bond return and will take the far-from-guarantee path.  

Tax strategies are also a consideration, and rebalancing can definitely play a role there.  Anyone needing to take money out most certainly has an eye towards where to take it from and what that means to the overall.   I would say that I would be in favor of shifting things around when something forces a change (like withdrawal or sudden life change) but I would not ever rebalance on some schedule for sake of rebalance.


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## bogey21 (Nov 25, 2020)

You can rebalance a gold and silver portfolio similarly, selling gold and buying silver when the number of ozs of silver to buy one oz of gold gets high then reversing the process when the ratio goes the other way...

George


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## davidvel (Nov 26, 2020)

geekette said:


> I called no one stupid nor foolish.


Who said you did?


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## davidvel (Nov 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> Great !
> anyone that can predict the stock market should be very very happy.
> 
> But for others (not so clairvoyant) a diversified low cost stock index fund is recommended.
> And rebalancing from stocks to fixed income as one gets older is also recommended  ...


If one (especially holding for long term) needs a crystal ball to figure out if they should invest deeply in a market that has fallen from 30,000 to 18,500 in 30 days (60+%), then there is no help for them.


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## PigsDad (Nov 26, 2020)

davidvel said:


> If one (especially holding for long term) needs a crystal ball to figure out if they should invest deeply in a market that has fallen from 30,000 to 18,500 in 30 days (60+%), then there is no help for them.


Absolutely agree, but psychologically I can see why many may hesitate when all we see in the media at that time are stories about how we're all doomed / the world is ending.  At those times, you have to admit it takes courage and faith to draw down on your nice, safe cash reserves / emergency funds and throw it into what looks like a sinking ship on fire.  

Since most people don't have a lot of extra cash sitting around, I certainly don't fault those who can't / aren't willing to take that jump.  After all, when things tank so extremely fast like that, they are probably thinking their jobs aren't very secure (not unfounded fear), so preserving cash looks a whole lot better to them vs. investing.

Kurt


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## Brett (Nov 26, 2020)

geekette said:


> Yes, AUM is a different matter.   Rebalancing as a thing came about to get some profit from accounts just sitting there.   It was probably great money right up until fees finally stopped.  Early trading fees were much much higher long ago.   It was good money to scare people from stocks to bonds.
> 
> Today, rebalancing is embraced as risk reduction, such as in your case.  While I don't personally subscribe to it, I can understand how asset shifts over time give people peace of mind.   Yes, stocks are the riskiest of investments (and best potential long haul reward).  However, put into context, there is a spectrum.   P&G is hardly a "lose everything you have in it" type of investment risk.   Sure, if they hit the big skids, shareholders are last.   I can live with that risk easier than I could stomach going from PG shares to their bonds.  I personally do not need the 'almost certainly a sure thing' bond return and will take the far-from-guarantee path.
> 
> Tax strategies are also a consideration, and rebalancing can definitely play a role there.  Anyone needing to take money out most certainly has an eye towards where to take it from and what that means to the overall.   I would say that I would be in favor of shifting things around when something forces a change (like withdrawal or sudden life change) but I would not ever rebalance on some schedule for sake of rebalance.




For me rebalancing means slowly reducing risk and volatility as one gets older, especially past the age of 70.


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## geekette (Nov 26, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Who said you did?


.... I guess we were stupid for doing so. SPOILER: We're happy we did. 

seemed like insinuation.


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## geekette (Nov 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> For me rebalancing means slowly reducing risk and volatility as one gets older, especially past the age of 70.


Yes, and I think "slowly" is the key, vs twice a year or more frequently (starts to feel like churn).   With trade fees gone, I'm sure rebalancing for those in brokerages is much more palatable.  

Frankly, everyone has their own ideas on how to go about all of this, and it matters whether one is trying to leave money to others.  I do my own thing that is largely untethered from 'conventional wisdom' but the plan I hatched in my 20s is working, so I don't expect to change as I age.   I would be categorized as an aggressive investor, based on my always 95%+ equities, but it's hard to feel "aggressive" when I have old stodgies like PG.   For me, they key is the longevity of the companies I invest in.   If I don't think a company will outlive me, I am not a buyer of their shares.


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## VacationForever (Nov 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> For me rebalancing means slowly reducing risk and volatility as one gets older, especially past the age of 70.


I don't get the rebalancing as one gets older.  One cannot predict if they will live to 75 or 100.  If you go with "safer" fixed income investments and you live to 100, you may run out of money by doing so.  No matter what age I am, I would prefer to go with a 70-25-5 equity-fixed income-cash mix, or at the minimum 65-30-5.  I just logged into my investment account and it is currently showing 70.81-25.75-3.44.


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## geekette (Nov 26, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I don't get the rebalancing as one gets older.  One cannot predict if they will live to 75 or 100.  If you live to go with "safer" fixed income investments and you live to 100, you may run out of money by doing so.  No matter what age I am, I would prefer to go with a 70-25-5 equity-fixed income-cash mix, or at the minimum 65-30-5.  I just logged into my investment account and it is currently showing 70.81-25.75-3.44.


Yes, I feel that my biggest risk is outliving my money.   Many of my relatives reached late 90s and some crossed the century mark.    I need that long term average 12% return that is only possible with stocks.


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## bogey21 (Nov 26, 2020)

geekette said:


> Yes, I feel that my biggest risk is outliving my money.



This is why I accepted an annuity with a 50% Survivor benefit for my 20 year younger ex-wife instead of a lump sum when I retired at age 65 twenty one years ago.  I have never regretted my choice...

George


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Nov 26, 2020)

To me, investing is a big tent, a lot like a casino. The advantage is that you can't get thrown out for "counting cards". OTOH, each game in the casino is different, and what may work for one game won't work for another game. The same with investing.

Can you time the market successfully? Yes, depending on the scale, and what you define as successfully.
Can you buy for long term dividends? Yes, assuming you have the cash flow to invest on a long term basis.
Can you make lots of money in growth stocks? Yes, if 1.) you can pick the winners before everybody else thinks they are winners. and 2.) You realize no growth stock remains a growth stock forever, which means at some point you have to get out, and buy another winner.

and, Yes there are other games that you can play.

But each of the games mention above have totally different rules and methods. You can play one or more than one. Your choice, your responsibility.

Recently, I bought some MO for the long term portfolio. A stock that everybody loathes, but. . . . 9% dividend, and 55 dividend bumps in the last 52 years, including one this year.


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## Brett (Nov 26, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I don't get the rebalancing as one gets older.  One cannot predict if they will live to 75 or 100.  If you live to go with "safer" fixed income investments and you live to 100, you may run out of money by doing so.  No matter what age I am, I would prefer to go with a 70-25-5 equity-fixed income-cash mix, or at the minimum 65-30-5.  I just logged into my investment account and it is currently showing 70.81-25.75-3.44.



The conventional wisdom is to be heavily invested in equities  (90 - 100%) early in life and then shift to fixed income later for a more predictable and reliable income stream.
It's a different risk factor for each individual.    Sure, it's possible to run out of money with any asset class unless you have a guaranteed annuity.  
I'm also around 70% equities but looking to make the nest egg more reliable  - annuities, bonds, CD's, etc.


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## VacationForever (Nov 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> The conventional wisdom is to be heavily invested in equities  (90 - 100%) early in life and then shift to fixed income later for a more predictable and reliable income stream.
> It's a different risk factor for each individual.    Sure, it's possible to run out of money with any asset class unless you have a guaranteed annuity.
> I'm also around 70% equities but looking to make the nest egg more reliable  - annuities, bonds, CD's, etc.


I did pull out about 15% of our investments when we retired and turned that into deferred income annuities that will start paying me in 2 years time from today.   I did not count that in my mix, but I should.  Based on that, we should go with 80% equities in our managed accounts.


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## geekette (Nov 26, 2020)

... Recently, I bought some MO for the long term portfolio. A stock that everybody loathes, but. . . . 9% dividend, and 55 dividend bumps in the last 52 years, including one this year. 

Not everybody loathes it.   Many long haul div investors like it a lot.   

...Can you buy for long term dividends? Yes, assuming you have the cash flow to invest on a long term basis. 

Decades of DCA through working years.   Compounding dividends are the secret sauce, adding to the pot whether or not the investor is adding.  Perfect for a Roth.


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## TravelTime (Nov 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> sometimes it's difficult to predict the future of "tired nags" and thoroughbreds
> 10 or 15 years ago people thought General Electric was a good stock for earnings growth and it would be very foolish to buy Tesla  (or Amazon!)



Apple used to be a tired nag 15 years ago,


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## Luvtoride (Nov 26, 2020)

DrQ said:


> Not necessarily, I pay our FA based off the value of the portfolio, not the trades (which are no cost to us). We rebalance looking ahead to market trends.



I’m with you Dr Q. I don’t have the time (not yet retired) or the knowledge to efficiently/ strategically allocate and invest my portfolio so I pay a Financial Advisor to do it. We discuss all aspects of the strategies and they are based on our risk tolerance. I feel very comfortable with this approach and know that the price I pay is worth the piece of mind for professional management and very good advice. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## PigsDad (Nov 26, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> This is why I accepted an annuity with a 50% Survivor benefit for my 20 year younger ex-wife instead of a lump sum when I retired at age 65 twenty one years ago.  I have never regretted my choice...


Yes, but what was the effective return on your annuity when you bought it?  I'll bet anything it was a heck of a lot higher then than what is available now, with interest rates so low.  If you had to buy the same annuity today, would you have had the principle needed to produce the same income?  Most likely not. 

Today's investment environment is very different, so while annuities certainly can provide a secure, stable income, most people need higher returns in order to not run out of money in their retirement.  Annuities can still be included as a portion of a retirement portfolio, but I think few today can go your route of 100% annuities like you did 20-30 years ago.

Kurt


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## DrQ (Nov 26, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> I’m with you Dr Q. I don’t have the time (not yet retired) or the knowledge to efficiently/ strategically allocate and invest my portfolio so I pay a Financial Advisor to do it. We discuss all aspects of the strategies and they are based on our risk tolerance. I feel very comfortable with this approach and know that the price I pay is worth the piece of mind for professional management and very good advice.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Unfortunately, it took a couple years to find a FA who was worth a damn.


----------



## bogey21 (Nov 26, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Yes, but what was the effective return on your annuity when you bought it?  I'll bet anything it was a heck of a lot higher then than what is available now, with interest rates so low.  If you had to buy the same annuity today, would you have had the principle needed to produce the same income?  Most likely not.



Truth is I have no idea and didn't really care.  What incented me to take the annuity was a guaranteed 3% annual cumulative COLA.  After 20 years the COLA payment I received last January 1st was 60% of my base pension.  Next January 1st I will receive a payment equal to 63% of my annual pension.  I have no earthly idea how to factor that into calculating an effective rate of return...

George


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Nov 26, 2020)

geekette said:


> ... Recently, I bought some MO for the long term portfolio. A stock that everybody loathes, but. . . . 9% dividend, and 55 dividend bumps in the last 52 years, including one this year.
> 
> Not everybody loathes it.   Many long haul div investors like it a lot.
> 
> ...



Which is where mine is in. (Roth) Of course ALL my financial investments are in a Roth. . . .


----------



## VacationForever (Nov 27, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Yes, but what was the effective return on your annuity when you bought it?  I'll bet anything it was a heck of a lot higher then than what is available now, with interest rates so low.  If you had to buy the same annuity today, would you have had the principle needed to produce the same income?  Most likely not.
> 
> Today's investment environment is very different, so while annuities certainly can provide a secure, stable income, most people need higher returns in order to not run out of money in their retirement.  Annuities can still be included as a portion of a retirement portfolio, but I think few today can go your route of 100% annuities like you did 20-30 years ago.
> 
> Kurt


I did luck out when I bought my annuities 4 years ago.  A highly rated company was paying 50% more than their competitors and I jumped on the purchase.  3 months later their quotes dropped back to where other companies were paying.  Their payout is nowhere near what Bogey21's but it is not bad in the current 0 interest rate environment.


----------



## Brett (Jan 2, 2021)

"U.S. stocks landed at record-setting year-end levels after a wild 2020 that veered from a bear market to new record highs"






https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-surge-in-crazy-year-for-financial-markets-11609497000

I hope it's not a giant financial bubble waiting to burst ....


----------



## bogey21 (Jan 2, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> I did pull out about 15% of our investments when we retired and turned that into deferred income annuities that will start paying me in 2 years time from today.   I did not count that in my mix, but I should.  Based on that, we should go with 80% equities in our managed accounts.


I love your strategy particularly the deferred annuities.  The only thing I would do different is add some gold and Bitcoin (but not at today's price) and maybe reduce the 80% equities as time rolls on...

George


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## Luvtoride (Jan 2, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> I love your strategy particularly the deferred annuities. The only thing I would do different is add some gold and Bitcoin (but not at today's price) and maybe reduce the 80% equities as time rolls on...
> 
> George



George, I agree with you on Bitcoin/ cryptocurrency. Maybe on a bit of a pullback but I think it’s going to continue to rise as others have noted here. I just bought Grayscale BTC Trust this week and am glad to finally have some exposure there. 

Also, check out a stock called RIOT, A cryptocurrency mining company. Fascinating stuff that will continue to prosper as these currencies become more mainstream and continue to rise. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## bogey21 (Jan 2, 2021)

The spread between the Grayscale Trust and Bitcoin is pretty wide...

I'm about 50-50 between Gold and Silver.  Right now I think Gold is a better buy...

George


----------



## bbodb1 (Jan 2, 2021)

Say what you will about President Trump (and I know several here have plenty to say), but the stock market has prospered during his presidency.  That is a fact. 
Now to what extent President Trump's policies and decisions may (or may not) have impacted market performance - that is another question entirely. 

But with the change in administration pending, the markets are likely to be a bit unsettled for a bit.  
Let's see what happens assuming the elect is dropped from President Elect Biden.  

And let's be very clear about this - my comments are made from the FINANCIAL MARKET performance point of view exclusively.  
I'd support George McGovern for President if his policies would make financial markets happy......


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## Talent312 (Jan 2, 2021)

In the next few months, I'll be pulling about 10% out of our portfolio.
I'll be using it for major home improvement projects with a 1:1 value.

So, in one sense, I'm converting a liquid equity to an illiquid equity.
But at least, it's one I get to live in it for the duration.
,


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## bogey21 (Jan 2, 2021)

Increases in the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Houses tell me a lot of people are worried about the long term effect of the Government's deficit spending and the Federal Reserve's debt purchase activities.  All I can say is be nimble.  Who know how the market will react long term to all of this...

George


----------



## bbodb1 (Jan 2, 2021)

Talent312 said:


> In the next few months, I'll be pulling about 10% out of our portfolio.
> I'll be using it for major home improvement projects with a 1:1 value.
> 
> So, in one sense, I'm converting a liquid equity to an illiquid equity.
> ...


I certainly hope your illiquid equity is a solid one!    Unless (of course) your home improvement project is a pool - which would exist in both states....


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jan 2, 2021)

bbodb1 said:


> I certainly hope your illiquid equity is a solid one!    Unless (of course) your home improvement project is a pool - which would exist in both states....



Which state will you have to pay the taxes to?


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## VacationForever (Jan 2, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> Increases in the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Houses tell me a lot of people are worried about the long term effect of the Government's deficit spending and the Federal Reserve's debt purchase activities.  All I can say is be nimble.  Who know how the market will react long term to all of this...
> 
> George


I won't touch Bitcoin with a 10-foot stick.  It is not "real" money and has no real worth.  It is about as tangible as ether.


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## HitchHiker71 (Jan 2, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> Increases in the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Houses tell me a lot of people are worried about the long term effect of the Government's deficit spending and the Federal Reserve's debt purchase activities. All I can say is be nimble. Who know how the market will react long term to all of this...
> 
> George



Agreed - I actually think the days of the Fed greenback are numbered - just a question of how and when at this point. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## HitchHiker71 (Jan 2, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> I won't touch Bitcoin with a 10-foot stick. It is not "real" money and has no real worth. It is about as tangible as ether.



Just wait until the world moves away from the Fed greenback as the world reserve currency and QE is no longer possible - then we will see just how worthless the greenback is in reality. 

At that point, cryptocurrency is likely to be worth far more than it is today and the greenback will likely cease to exist as we know it for all intents and purposes. When the Fed literally creates trillions of Fed dollars out of thin air via QE to monetize runaway national government spending, and is endlessly increasing the money supply over time in the process, what is the difference between the ether cryptocurrency and the Fed dollar?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## bnoble (Jan 2, 2021)

To badly misquote Churchill: "The US dollar is the worst form of currency, except for all the others."


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## easyrider (Jan 2, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> Increases in the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Houses tell me a lot of people are worried about the long term effect of the Government's deficit spending and the Federal Reserve's debt purchase activities.  All I can say is be nimble.  Who know how the market will react long term to all of this...
> 
> George



I'm not a fan of the uninsured cryto's because of the ability of others to hack and steal it. Every year you read about multiple thefts of billions of dollars of these. When the most sensitive and protected cpu systems in the USA can be hacked what chance does a person with a $1000 cpu on a shared system have ? 

Bill


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## HitchHiker71 (Jan 2, 2021)

bnoble said:


> To badly misquote Churchill: "The US dollar is the worst form of currency, except for all the others."



An excerpt from the linked article below from back in 2019:

“Meanwhile, Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney proposed in a speech on Aug. 23 at the Kansas City Fed’s annual summit in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that central bankers around the globe could coordinate to issue a digital “Synthetic Hegemonic Currency” to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. He suggested that such a tool could eliminate problems that have resulted from the U.S. dollar’s serving that purpose, from erratic capital flows in emerging-market economies to an overvaluation of the greenback that can suppress American exports.”









						Why the coming recession could force the Federal Reserve to swap greenbacks for digital dollars
					

Paper bank notes are being upgraded for a digital future around the world.




					www.marketwatch.com
				




It’s not a matter of if, it’s a question of when. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jan 2, 2021)

HitchHiker71 said:


> An excerpt from the linked article below from back in 2019:
> 
> “Meanwhile, Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney proposed in a speech on Aug. 23 at the Kansas City Fed’s annual summit in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that central bankers around the globe could coordinate to issue a digital “Synthetic Hegemonic Currency” to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. He suggested that such a tool could eliminate problems that have resulted from the U.S. dollar’s serving that purpose, from erratic capital flows in emerging-market economies to an overvaluation of the greenback that can suppress American exports.”
> 
> ...



And the black market will trade in gold/silver. There will always be a market for invisibility. Cash serves it now, despite all the Federal regulation to try and stop it, but when cash disappears, metals will, once again, take over. . . .


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## bnoble (Jan 2, 2021)

HitchHiker71 said:


> It’s not a matter of if, it’s a question of when.


I've never once regretted betting that predictions of the form "We'll just reinvent the world" take at least twice as long as the person making the prediction suggests.

As a related aside, I thought this article gave a very plausible explanation for what is going on. Short version: money that the well-to-do can't spend on vacations has to go somewhere.








						Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery (Published 2021)
					

It wasn’t just the Fed or the stimulus. The rise in savings among white-collar workers created a tide lifting nearly all financial assets.




					www.nytimes.com


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## Brett (Jan 2, 2021)

bnoble said:


> I've never once regretted betting that predictions of the form "We'll just reinvent the world" take at least twice as long as the person making the prediction suggests.
> 
> As a related aside, I thought this article gave a very plausible explanation for what is going on. Short version: money that the well-to-do can't spend on vacations has to go somewhere.
> 
> ...



that's part of it.  government loan programs to businesses and stimulus money,  increasing tax breaks for corporations and shareholders, efficiency in tele-commuting.
Plenty of explanations.


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## jabberwocky (Jan 3, 2021)

easyrider said:


> I'm not a fan of the uninsured cryto's because of the ability of others to hack and steal it. Every year you read about multiple thefts of billions of dollars of these. When the most sensitive and protected cpu systems in the USA can be hacked what chance does a person with a $1000 cpu on a shared system have ?
> 
> Bill


The thefts you typically read about are cryptos being stored with an exchange. Security on an exchange is only as good as the weakest link in their system (usually a human).

In theory, if you treat your Bitcoin properly and in its own wallet that you control, it should not be possible to steal your bitcoins without you letting someone know your private key (just like you should never let anyone know the PIN for your bank card). Your private keys should not be stored online or in any system connected to the internet (mine reside on a couple of encrypted USB drives - two copies made for backup purposes and stored separately from each other).

It’s okay to buy Bitcoin on an exchange, but you really should move it to your own personal wallet that you alone control. They are free to set up and can be done  in seconds. If an exchange won’t allow you to transfer out to your own wallet, then you need a different exchange.

As an aside, with BTC prices going up I decided to turn my Antminer S9 back on (I shut it down in May after the halving occurred since it became cheaper to buy BTC on an exchange at that point).


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## Brett (Jan 4, 2021)

Lessons From a Crazy Year In Financial Markets

*https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-a-crazy-year-in-financial-markets-11609410602*

   Markets don’t perfectly reflect the economy

    It pays not to try to time the markets

    Forecasts are just forecasts

    The tech trade is only getting bigger


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## Ironwood (Jan 4, 2021)

There is usually a little buying early in the new year as portfolio managers buy things they didn't want showing up on Dec 31 portfolio summaries, but watch out as sentiment can change on a dime!  And I think that will happen early this year.  I'm more invested than I probably should be, and I can get out fairly quickly if I have to, but not if we have a day with the DOW opening down 1000 and the S & P down 300.


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## rapmarks (Jan 4, 2021)

I have a lot of money in cash right now.  I will reinvest after January 6 and a few days after Inauguration Day.


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## dioxide45 (Jan 4, 2021)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> And the black market will trade in gold/silver. There will always be a market for invisibility. Cash serves it now, despite all the Federal regulation to try and stop it, but when cash disappears, metals will, once again, take over. . . .


Will you ever be able to go and buy something with a lump of gold or silver? Can I walk into a Costco one day with some gold and buy some toilet paper? I doubt it. Currency is only worth what other people think it is and perhaps the labor that goes into creating it. In the past, the value of the dollar was backed by gold. Now it is backed by nothing. Even in times of armageddon, what would I need with gold or silver. I want something from someone else, I need to be able to give them something of value they would want. Perhaps that is labor or something else of barter, but I doubt it will be gold or silver.


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## bogey21 (Jan 4, 2021)

dioxide45 said:


> Will you ever be able to go and buy something with a lump of gold or silver?



The answer is most likely "No".  On the other hand when I sell to the gold and silver dealers I use locally they pay me in cold hard cash that theoretically I can buy things with.  This is why I keep my gold and silver in small units, 1/10 oz for gold and 1 oz for silver...

George


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## davidvel (Jan 4, 2021)

Brett said:


> Lessons From a Crazy Year In Financial Markets
> 
> *https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-a-crazy-year-in-financial-markets-11609410602*
> 
> ...


Is there a graph that a t shows how much more you would have made if you invested x amount on the 5 and 10th worst days? That would help better compare whether one should "time" the market.


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## geekette (Jan 4, 2021)

davidvel said:


> Is there a graph that a t shows how much more you would have made if you invested x amount on the 5 and 10th worst days? That would help better compare whether one should "time" the market.


There are such things around, but, it still remains a look back with forward being a crapshoot for us all.

While I would stipulate that it is not impossible to be successful in market timing strategies, it could be very difficult to do it reliably, since 'the market' is not reliable.   The ideal of rock bottom buy and tip top sell is elusive for most mere mortals, but diligent homework could get a person close.   Most people, if they really tried, could buy "low enough" and sell "high enough" to decide for themselves that 'market timing' works, at least on whatever timeframe they used.   

I do not embrace it as a strategy and never will.   However, holding long term generally bakes the Higher into things.  Not always, it depends on when you take the readings, and on the success of the company.    One doesn't have to be decades-long patient but it sure doesn't hurt.


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## Brett (Jan 4, 2021)

davidvel said:


> Is there a graph that a t shows how much more you would have made if you invested x amount on the 5 and 10th worst days? That would help better compare whether one should "time" the market.



The first column on the graph would be the same (fully invested all the time). 
Of course missing the worst days of the stock market would increase the yield and investing an amount on the exact worst day and selling on the exact best day would also be a winning ticket


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## easyrider (Jan 4, 2021)

dioxide45 said:


> In the past, the value of the dollar was backed by gold. Now it is backed by nothing.



The USD is supported by many things. The value of gold is that gold is a tangible storage mechanism of wealth that keeps up with inflation and increases in value over time. 

The reason why the USD will always be the fiat currency and has nothing to do with how many USD's are printed or the value of the USD. The main reason is that weapons, gold, oil, technology and commodities are mainly priced with USD's throughout the world. I doubt that will change anytime soon. The U.S. $100 note is the most sought out currency in existence in the world. Over 80% of all USD's are $100 notes.

Bill


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jan 4, 2021)

dioxide45 said:


> Will you ever be able to go and buy something with a lump of gold or silver? Can I walk into a Costco one day with some gold and buy some toilet paper? I doubt it. Currency is only worth what other people think it is and perhaps the labor that goes into creating it. In the past, the value of the dollar was backed by gold. Now it is backed by nothing. Even in times of armageddon, what would I need with gold or silver. I want something from someone else, I need to be able to give them something of value they would want. Perhaps that is labor or something else of barter, but I doubt it will be gold or silver.



First off, I said the black market, not the white market. 

Consider. Are stocks money? How about Bonds? Real estate?  Old Masters etchings? All of them have value, and can be exchanged (with varying levels of liquidity), for "money".

What I am saying, for transactions that are currently being paid for "under the table" in cash, will not be "under the table" in some form of digital currency (because there is NO "under the table" with digital currency - everything has an audit trail). When cash goes away "under the table" will not go away, as long as there is an economic incentive for such transactions. There will be a new medium of exchange for such transactions, something with a history of invisiblity, and of maintaining value over time, and a relatively low exchange transaction cost. That will be metals.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jan 4, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> The answer is most likely "No".  On the other hand when I sell to the gold and silver dealers I use locally they pay me in cold hard cash that theoretically I can buy things with.  This is why I keep my gold and silver in small units, 1/10 oz for gold and 1 oz for silver...
> 
> George


George, I have found that gold 1/4 oz has a much better exchange rate that 1/10 oz, without much more value. (12% vs. 25%). I have also found better bid/ask spreads with 90% "junk" silver. But to each his/her own. . .


----------



## bogey21 (Jan 4, 2021)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> George, I have found that gold 1/4 oz has a much better exchange rate that 1/10 oz, without much more value. (12% vs. 25%). I have also found better bid/ask spreads with 90% "junk" silver. But to each his/her own. . .


All my silver are 1 oz .999 mint condition coins.  I am thinking about adding some common date Morgans to my stache...

George


----------



## CO skier (Jan 4, 2021)

PigsDad said:


> From a post on March 14, 2020:
> 
> Well, I for one am glad your prediction did not come to fruition.
> 
> ...



I think it was Yogi Berra who was attributed to famously saying, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

One of the benefits of market timing is that it takes much of the emotion and angst out of investing.  Who could have predicted the Fed would pump 3 TRILLION dollars into the economy (where much of it made its way into mutual funds)?  After the Fed action the markets stabilized, and when it did at a level more than 10% above the lows, I exercised the plan posted on March 12th and bought back into QQQ with the click of a button on April 9th.  Buying into the market at the time went against my instincts, but market timing requires discipline.



CO skier said:


> I sold everything with a click of a button, then dollar cost averaged into QID over two days.  Sold the QID today at the click of a button for a 39% gain in less than two weeks -- no reason to get greedy.  Now I will sit in cash until this selloff reaches the 40% mark, and start to dollar cost average back into the market for the upside swing.  If the market does not sell off to the 40% level, I will get back into the market when it moves upward 10% on low volatility from the lows.  Mutual funds do not have that luxury.


----------



## CO skier (Jan 5, 2021)

Brett said:


> Lessons From a Crazy Year In Financial Markets
> 
> *https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-a-crazy-year-in-financial-markets-11609410602*
> 
> ...


I remember first seeing a bar chart about "missing the best days of the stock market" in 1994, when the company I was working for transferred the 401K plan management to Vanguard Funds.  Even as a 30-something, I could see the fallacy in the chart, because it is distorted.  It was much like a timeshare presentation where only positives are presented.  So I raised my hand and asked, "What would the returns have been if the worst 5 and worst 10 days had been avoided?  He did not have an answer, because that side of the same coin would have supported the idea of timing the market to avoid the worst days.

If someone is interested in exploring this idea some more, Google "missing best 10 stock market days fallacy."

Nevertheless, I thought it would be interesting to see how my 4 round trip market timing trades this year compared to the 5 best and worst days of 2020.  I was double-short for the fourth worst day (March 9) and closed out the QID position on the 2nd worst day (March 12) for a 39% gain.  I opened a double-short position on the 3rd worst day (Sep. 3) and still held it for the 5th worst day (Sep. 8) and the 5th best day (Nov. 4) closing out the position on Dec. 1 for a -15% return (market timing does not guarantee a winning trade every time).

I was in cash for the worst day of the year (March 16th), the best day of the year (March 13th), the second best day (March 24), the fourth best day (March 17th) and the third best day of the year (April 6th) .

So I was in cash and completely missed 4 out of the 5 best days of the year and was on the wrong side of the market for the fifth, yet my 4 trades yielded returns of:

+6.6% QQQ
+39%  QID
+43%  QQQ
-15%  QID
and the current QQQ position has a 4% return

for a compound annual return in 2020 of 91.1%

This year was by far the best year since I started timing the market in 2008.  Many years there are no trades.  I have never calculated each year to determine how much more I have due to market timing, but it must easily be 3-4 times versus if I had stuck with "buy and hold for the long term."  Nothing wrong with that strategy, but I knew too many "buy and holders" who sold out at the worst times in 2008 and swore off the stock market for good.  Much like people who get burned by a timeshare purchase and think they are scams.


----------



## Brett (Jan 5, 2021)

CO skier said:


> I remember first seeing a bar chart about "missing the best days of the stock market" in 1994, when the company I was working for transferred the 401K plan management to Vanguard Funds.  Even as a 30-something, I could see the fallacy in the chart, because it is distorted.  It was much like a timeshare presentation where only positives are presented.  So I raised my hand and asked, "What would the returns have been if the worst 5 and worst 10 days had been avoided?  He did not have an answer, because that side of the same coin would have supported the idea of timing the market to avoid the worst days.
> 
> If someone is interested in exploring this idea some more, Google "missing best 10 stock market days fallacy."
> 
> ...




OK
Maybe you should consider starting your own actively managed mutual fund , make billions instead of measly millions.  seriously

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimwan...market-timing-is-for-suckers/?sh=4bd681d249d8
https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/timing-the-stock-market-never-ends-well-2020-6
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ck-market-look-at-this-chart-first-2017-12-08


----------



## geekette (Jan 5, 2021)

CO skier said:


> One of the benefits of market timing is that it takes much of the emotion and angst out of investing.  .... Buying into the market at the time went against my instincts, but market timing requires discipline.


I think that for most people, market timing ADDS emotion and angst.   Fretting on the way down, greedy impatience on the way up ...  

I'm with you on emotionless investing.  Makes it tons easier, regardless of strategy.   I do think that having a strategy and sticking with it is key.


----------



## geekette (Jan 5, 2021)

....Nothing wrong with that strategy, but I knew too many "buy and holders" who sold out at the worst times in 2008 and swore off the stock market for good.   

That's not buy and hold.   I am buy and hold, haven't sold anything, been buying for over 30 years.


----------



## PigsDad (Jan 5, 2021)

geekette said:


> ....Nothing wrong with that strategy, but I knew too many "buy and holders" who sold out at the worst times in 2008 and swore off the stock market for good.
> 
> That's not buy and hold.   I am buy and hold, haven't sold anything, been buying for over 30 years.


I agree -- that is not buy and hold.  That is buy and panic sell.  Completely different.

And @CO skier, what are you doing hanging around here?  If your system can give you the consistent gains that you claim, you could use those talents to become the richest person in the world in a few years.  Seriously.  I'd be the first to invest in your managed fund.

Kurt


----------



## geekette (Jan 5, 2021)

PigsDad said:


> I agree -- that is not buy and hold.  That is buy and panic sell.  Completely different.
> 
> And @CO skier, what are you doing hanging around here?  If your system can give you the consistent gains that you claim, you could use those talents to become the richest person in the world in a few years.  Seriously.  I'd be the first to invest in your managed fund.
> 
> Kurt


Funny, once upon a time, I wanted to be a fund manager.   I settled on making my own "mutual funds" for benefit of self.   

For years, I tried to get an investment club going.  The holdings there would have been a mutual fund of sorts.   I think my biggest problem would be finding others with mindset of buy-hold-reinvest divvies long term, especially since my 20s are long gone.   No worries, it has been fun to be a solo investor, accountable to my own self interest.


----------



## GetawaysRus (Jan 5, 2021)

This fellow offers a free newsletter.  Here's this week's issue with his commentary on the stock market:

Technically Speaking: S&P 500 - Trading At Historical Extremes - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

Much of the issue is devoted to traditional stock market valuation.

For the technically inclined, notice that his S&P500 charts are data from Dec 31.  He uses different moving averages on the different S&P500 charts in the article.  The first chart uses 20 and 200 days, the next uses 52 and 200, and the third uses 12 and 48 days. 

Also, he is using different MACD histogram settings on the various charts in the article than the defaults.  On StreetSmart Edge (from Schwab), I believe the defaults are 12, 26, and 9.  MACD (and the MACD histogram) is going to look a little different depending on the settings you select for the chart.  So he shows the MACD histogram to the good (green).  Using 12, 26, and 9 it turns out that I see it just a little in the red.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jan 5, 2021)

Re: CO skier.

"No captain, no crew. Nobody's neck but your own." - Robert A. Heinlein - _Space Jockey_ 

Not everybody wants to work for other people, no matter how much money is offered. They may not want the responsibility. I know I don't! 
Besides, beyond a certain point, money doesn't matter. As James Garner said in _The Wheeler Dealers_ - "Wheeling and dealing isn't about the money. Money is just how you keep score."


----------



## Breezy52 (Jan 5, 2021)

As to the QID,  you can make really good money buying & selling but really watch carefully.  Some watch the 20 day Moving Average. 

Does anyone have educated opinions on the u.s. dollar tanking?  That's been bothering me lately.


----------



## easyrider (Jan 5, 2021)

Breezy52 said:


> As to the QID,  you can make really good money buying & selling but really watch carefully.  Some watch the 20 day Moving Average.
> 
> Does anyone have educated opinions on the u.s. dollar tanking?  That's been bothering me lately.



I read that Citigroup expects the USD to be down 20% in 2021 which is good for precious metal , real estate and other commodities.

Bill


----------



## DannyTS (Jan 5, 2021)

Has anyone calculated the odds of missing *only* the best 5 or 10 days of the last 20 years?


----------



## Brett (Jan 6, 2021)

GetawaysRus said:


> This fellow offers a free newsletter.  Here's this week's issue with his commentary on the stock market:
> 
> Technically Speaking: S&P 500 - Trading At Historical Extremes - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)
> 
> ...



that first chart of the S&P 500 vs EPS is scary ...


----------



## Ironwood (Jan 7, 2021)

...and despite the storming of the capital yesterday, the market continues to roar upwards.  A complete disconnect to the realities of 2020 and the first week of the new year.  This could continue for a while, as the market typically climbs a wall of worry before tumbling down.   Watch out this spring!


----------



## VacationForever (Jan 7, 2021)

Ironwood said:


> ...and despite the storming of the capital yesterday, the market continues to roar upwards.  A complete disconnect to the realities of 2020 and the first week of the new year.  This could continue for a while, as the market typically climbs a wall of worry before tumbling down.   Watch out this spring!


Mm.. we bought a new home, closing next week and are taking a small mortgage on it because we could not resist 2.75% fixed interest rate.  We have been debating each day if we should just sell our investments while the market is up and forget about the mortgage.


----------



## PigsDad (Jan 7, 2021)

Ironwood said:


> ...and despite the storming of the capital yesterday, the market continues to roar upwards.  A complete disconnect to the realities of 2020 and the first week of the new year.  This could continue for a while, as the market typically climbs a wall of worry before tumbling down.   Watch out this spring!


But one has to ask:  will the actions of yesterday affect corporate earnings?  If not, it shouldn't affect the stock market.  The market is forward-looking, and can certainly see that the current president will be out of the office in 13 days.  Given the recent market moves, many think that will be good for many companies.

Kurt


----------



## bluehende (Jan 7, 2021)

PigsDad said:


> But one has to ask:  will the actions of yesterday affect corporate earnings?  If not, it shouldn't affect the stock market.  The market is forward-looking, and can certainly see that the current president will be out of the office in 13 days.  Given the recent market moves, many think that will be good for many companies.
> 
> Kurt


My only explanation that makes sense is that after the events of yesterday a lot of very conciliatory speeches were made from some congressional firebrands.  I am guessing the markets feel there will be much more bipartisanship in the future.  Time will tell.


----------



## PigsDad (Jan 7, 2021)

bluehende said:


> My only explanation that makes sense is that after the events of yesterday a lot of very conciliatory speeches were made from some congressional firebrands.  I am guessing the markets feel there will be much more bipartisanship in the future.  Time will tell.


One can hope.

Kurt


----------



## Brett (Jan 7, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> Mm.. we bought a new home, closing next week and are taking a small mortgage on it because we could not resist 2.75% fixed interest rate.  We have been debating each day if we should just sell our investments while the market is up and forget about the mortgage.



compare the equivalent rates of return and the source of your funds.    If it's a 10 year mortgage loan and the 10 year bond rate is around 2.75%  then pulling money from fixed investments could work.   If you're selling stocks then that would lower your investment risk but may involve paying additional taxes.


----------



## VacationForever (Jan 7, 2021)

Brett said:


> compare the equivalent rates of return and the source of your funds.    If it's a 10 year mortgage loan and the 10 year bond rate is around 2.75%  then pulling money from fixed investments could work.   If you're selling stocks then that would lower your investment risk but may involve paying additional taxes.


10-year treasury rate is about 1%.  It is a matter of whether we believe the recent run-up is due for a correction and start of a bear market for several years.


----------



## bogey21 (Jan 7, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> All my silver are 1 oz .999 mint condition coins.  I am thinking about adding some common date Morgans to my stache...


Update - Just for the heck of it I bought 10 nice looking common date Morgan and 10 common date Peace Dollars yesterday.  Both contain roughly 77% silver.  If anyone cares I paid $27 for the Morgans and $26 for the Peace Dollars.  Total cost was $530.  I have no idea if those prices are reasonable or not.  If I find them cheaper I may buy more....

George


----------



## TravelTime (Jan 7, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> Mm.. we bought a new home, closing next week and are taking a small mortgage on it because we could not resist 2.75% fixed interest rate.  We have been debating each day if we should just sell our investments while the market is up and forget about the mortgage.



I would stay diversified. Small mortgage and stick with investments. Best thing over the long term.


----------



## VacationForever (Jan 7, 2021)

TravelTime said:


> I would stay diversified. Small mortgage and stick with investments. Best thing over the long term.


Pretty much that is what we are doing. We just got off the phone with my FA and he said our portfolio went up 4% over the past 2 days and the painful part about applying for a mortgage is over.  His words were that we had taken the enema so why not to just go through with it.


----------



## Brett (Jan 7, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> 10-year treasury rate is about 1%.  It is a matter of whether we believe the recent run-up is due for a correction and start of a bear market for several years.





For me that financial decision should *not* be a matter of whether the stock market will be a "correction" or 'bear market' or a "run up" in several years.

It's more about matching retirement financial objectives with specific asset category 'return on investments".


----------



## HitchHiker71 (Jan 7, 2021)

PigsDad said:


> But one has to ask: will the actions of yesterday affect corporate earnings? If not, it shouldn't affect the stock market. The market is forward-looking, and can certainly see that the current president will be out of the office in 13 days. Given the recent market moves, many think that will be good for many companies.
> 
> Kurt



Indeed. The democratic senate majority also means that the likelihood of federal spending on COVID related relief is also much higher. They are already talking about $2000 checks in February 2021. Additional stimulus results in more consumer spending which translates to sustained earnings. 

Tesla has risen 10% this week due to ratings upgrades and general consensus of better BEV tax incentives that Schumer has talked about for the past two years. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## VacationForever (Jan 7, 2021)

Brett said:


> For me that financial decision should *not* be a matter of whether the stock market will be a "correction" or 'bear market' or a "run up" in several years.
> 
> It's more about matching retirement financial objectives with specific asset category 'return on investments".


I am not sure what you mean.  Our annual target/estimated investment growth is much higher than the mortgage interest rate, if that is what you mean.  We just do not like to take on a debt even though we can well afford it.


----------



## GetawaysRus (Jan 7, 2021)

bluehende said:


> My only explanation that makes sense is that after the events of yesterday a lot of very conciliatory speeches were made from some congressional firebrands.  I am guessing the markets feel there will be much more bipartisanship in the future.  Time will tell.



I think the stock market senses stimulus.  That's crack cocaine for the stock market.  With the Democrats in control, the likelihood of a trillion dollar or multi-trillion stimulus bill is much greater.

Oops.  I see that as I was typing this, HitchHiker71 posted essentially the same thought.

The big question in my mind: how effective will a large stimulus bill be to stimulate the economy?  Will consumers spend all that cash or will they save some of it?  Obama's "shovel ready jobs" were a bit of a bust, and I do have major doubts about the effectiveness of politicians in delivering helpful stimulus.  Where there are politicians, I smell pork.


----------



## Brett (Jan 8, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> I am not sure what you mean.  Our annual target/estimated investment growth is much higher than the mortgage interest rate, if that is what you mean.  We just do not like to take on a debt even though we can well afford it.




no, that's not what I mean, everyone hopes that their retirement assets increase at a higher rate.  
But it sounds like you are doing what is best for your situation.  A mortgage loan reduces future investment risk and you won't have to worry (much) about the stock market going up or down.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jan 8, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> Update - Just for the heck of it I bought 10 nice looking common date Morgan and 10 common date Peace Dollars yesterday.  Both contain roughly 77% silver.  If anyone cares I paid $27 for the Morgans and $26 for the Peace Dollars.  Total cost was $530.  I have no idea if those prices are reasonable or not.  If I find them cheaper I may buy more....
> 
> George


That works out to about $33/ounce. Silver quarters (pre-64) currently run about $28/$29 an ounce. But they aren't big. . .  (I bought a few(3) 1 ounce Britannias a few days ago @ $30/oz. The new ones (2021) have a hologram carve into them. . . .Nifty.)


----------



## VacationForever (Jan 8, 2021)

Brett said:


> no, that's not what I mean, everyone hopes that their retirement assets increase at a higher rate.
> But it sounds like you are doing what is best for your situation.  A mortgage loan reduces future investment risk and you won't have to worry (much) about the stock market going up or down.


I see it as reverse of what you have written here.  Paying cash and not having a loan reduces future investment risk. Money once spent is done.  But the amount is so small that there is no right or wrong.


----------



## Ironwood (Jan 8, 2021)

Anyone buying bitcoin?  I dabbled briefly a year ago and got out with a small loss as it tumbled just a couple of days after purchase.  Haven't been back, but just increased my holding in a gold streamer this morning on the bullion sell off!


----------



## Brett (Jan 8, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> I see it as reverse of what you have written here.  Paying cash and not having a loan reduces future investment risk. Money once spent is done.  But the amount is so small that there is no right or wrong.




Maybe we view risk differently.    My viewpoint on investment risk for that type of financial decision also depends on the source of the cash to buy an asset.  (among other things)
An example -  say a person has all their retirement money invested in bitcoins and Tesla stock and wants to buy a house.
Should they sell the Tesla stock and bitcoins and buy the house with the proceeds or should they get a bank mortgage.    Would that decision differ if all their retirement savings were invested in cash or CD'S ?
Has their overall retirement assets 'risk' changed?


----------



## geekette (Jan 8, 2021)

Brett said:


> Maybe we view risk differently.    My viewpoint on investment risk also depends on the source of the cash to buy an asset.  (among other things)
> An example -  say a person has all their retirement money invested in bitcoins and Tesla stock and wants to buy a house.
> Should they sell the Tesla stock and bitcoins and buy the house with the proceeds or should they get a bank mortgage.    Would that decision differ if all their retirement savings were invested in cash or CD'S ?
> Has their overall retirement assets 'risk' changed?


I don't count source of funding as part of any given "risk" to an investment.    It would most every time come from cash vs selling something else.   I invest for long haul vs liquidation on demand. 

Opportunity cost is a different process for me, and would be part of funding decisions.

I don't generally devote a lot of headspace to "risk" since I am already seen as some super aggressive risk taker for being most all in stocks.   I find it to be a sleepy income builder vs a sleep disturber, so my ideas on risk pertain to my life with "risky behavior" that has been quite rewarding, no losses.   Risk mitigation for me is to own a lot of companies across many industries; most companies very old with a long history of rewarding shareholders.   Good old diversification. 

Someone waist deep into Tesla and bitcoin is certainly living more wildly than I am, someone tucked into cash and CDs is hopefully past the "more than enough" in savings territory and content with minuscule growth.    I'm in between, not needing to shoot for the stars, yet, not in a situation where I'm confident of not outliving my money.   Running background all this time is the only risk I worry about:  becoming old and poor.   My strategy provides monthly income from multiple sources.   If the income is not sufficient, I could sell shares.  Best of both worlds.

I never found it risky to have income from just one source, my job, so I am actually living less risk by getting paid from dozens of companies.   Zero guarantees.   Pandemic forcing closing of many businesses is probably the closest I'll have ever come to the biggest risk of them all:  overnight vaporization of most all American commerce.   I own biggies, tho, so no whammies visited my portfolios.   In fact, they are oddly juiced.   I'm not one that finds it risky to look at a toppy, sloppy market.   Sure, probably more price volatility, consolidations in some industries, etc.  But stock price is not a risk for me like it might be for a one-stock portfolio or "need money for something else" investor.   Could be decades or never before I look at price for selling.    That could be called risk tolerance but it's just normal for me.


----------



## Luvtoride (Jan 8, 2021)

Ironwood said:


> Anyone buying bitcoin?  I dabbled briefly a year ago and got out with a small loss as it tumbled just a couple of days after purchase.  Haven't been back, but just increased my holding in a gold streamer this morning on the bullion sell off!



 Ironwood, from previous discussions here I have "dipped my toe" into Bitcoin by buying shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and RIOT, a bitcoin mining company.  With the surge in Bitcoin prices the past couple of weeks, both of these investments are up bigtime since i bought.  I figured its a way to "play" the cryptocurrency market without the cost or risk of owning the coins directly (and certainly not at $40,000/ coin).


----------



## bogey21 (Jan 8, 2021)

You can't avoid risk.  There is risk in everything.  With cash you have inflation risk.  With a pension you have counterparty risk.  With stocks, market risk.  With bonds, CDs ect there is interest rate risk, and on and on.  All one can do is manage these risks best they can...

George


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## Brett (Jan 9, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> You can't avoid risk.  There is risk in everything.  With cash you have inflation risk.  With a pension you have counterparty risk.  With stocks, market risk.  With bonds, CDs ect there is interest rate risk, and on and on.  All one can do is manage these risks best they can...
> 
> George



 For sure


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## rapmarks (Jan 9, 2021)

A few years ago we saw a relative who has extreme political views.   He advised us to buy gold and silver coins, bury them in several locations, keep some in our home so  that when those that observed us buying these coins came to steal them they would not kill us.
 I asked him if he had shared his burial locations  with anyone in case something happened to him he said yes.  
He is expecting a massive crash that is planned by the Chinese.  we will then dig up our coins and use them to purchase necessities.    
He recently shared a long intricately plotted plan by certain politicians to declare martial law on Wednesday January 6 to overturn the election.


----------



## Luvtoride (Jan 9, 2021)

rapmarks said:


> A few years ago we saw a relative who has extreme political views.   He advised us to buy gold and silver coins, bury them in several locations, keep some in our home so  that when those that observed us buying these coins came to steal them they would not kill us.
> I asked him if he had shared his burial locations  with anyone in case something happened to him he said yes.
> He is expecting a massive crash that is planned by the Chinese.  we will then dig up our coins and use them to purchase necessities.
> He recently shared a long intricately plotted plan by certain politicians to declare martial law on Wednesday January 6 to overturn the election.


‍‍ Reminds me of Cousin Eddie in Las Vegas Vacation


----------



## tompalm (Jan 9, 2021)

New ETFs based on momentum. They change holdings every month. Check out WIZ and DUDE





__





						Leave-Merlyn
					

SectorSurfer levels the playing field with Wall Street by putting the high performance momentum algorithms in your hands. Its True Sector Rotation algorithm holds only the trend leader during bull markets, and its StormGuard algorithm protects and grows your assets during bear markets.




					sumgrowth.com


----------



## Brett (Jan 10, 2021)

Luvtoride said:


> ‍♂‍♂ Reminds me of Cousin Eddie in Las Vegas Vacation



and the actor that played Cousin Eddie


----------



## VacationForever (Jan 10, 2021)

rapmarks said:


> A few years ago we saw a relative who has extreme political views.   He advised us to buy gold and silver coins, bury them in several locations, keep some in our home so  that when those that observed us buying these coins came to steal them they would not kill us.
> I asked him if he had shared his burial locations  with anyone in case something happened to him he said yes.
> He is expecting a massive crash that is planned by the Chinese.  we will then dig up our coins and use them to purchase necessities.
> He recently shared a long intricately plotted plan by certain politicians to declare martial law on Wednesday January 6 to overturn the election.


I know someone who is similar to your relative but his behavior does not have anything to do with politics.  He is paranoid about Uncle Sam watching all his moves.  He does not have a bank account and buries his money in his backyard.


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## rapmarks (Jan 10, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> I know someone who is similar to your relative but his behavior does not have anything to do with politics.  He is paranoid about Uncle Sam watching all his moves.  He does not have a bank account and buries his money in his backyard.


Mine us paranoid about Uncle Sam too


----------



## HitchHiker71 (Jan 10, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> I know someone who is similar to your relative but his behavior does not have anything to do with politics. He is paranoid about Uncle Sam watching all his moves. He does not have a bank account and buries his money in his backyard.



I tend to lump this type into the preppers category, though admittedly there are various sub-categories. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Talent312 (Jan 11, 2021)

All I know is that the market's been on a tear lately.
So, I'm taking some profits to stash ammo for the next correction.


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## tompalm (Jan 13, 2021)

https://mcusercontent.com/9413e262dc27f05659e3d74bd/files/f07a0c02-6308-4340-9acd-b67b773ae238/DUDE_and_BOB_Press_Release.pdf
		


BOB or Best in Breed will be out soon, maybe Feb 1.  I plan to buy both DUDE and BOB with any extra cash I have every month. I own WIZ and it is up 28 percent for one year and it holds 20 percent bonds.  So it is conservative compared to DUDE.  BOB is supposed to be in the middle, less aggressive than DUDE but more than WIZ. 

When the trend turns down, all of them go to bonds, gold or cash and later will buy back in when the trend turns up.  In the long term, they will outperform the market.  Great for non retirement accounts and easy to stay long.


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## Brett (Jan 13, 2021)

tompalm said:


> https://mcusercontent.com/9413e262dc27f05659e3d74bd/files/f07a0c02-6308-4340-9acd-b67b773ae238/DUDE_and_BOB_Press_Release.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> ...



sector surfer momentum fund  "DUDE"

This mutual fund tries to determine whether the stock market is going up or down and then invests to maximize returns
It will be interesting to see the long term results ....


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jan 13, 2021)

Brett said:


> sector surfer momentum fund  "DUDE"
> 
> This mutual fund tries to determine whether the stock market is going up or down and then invests to maximize returns
> It will be interesting to see the long term results ....



We'll see if they can "jazz the glass" or "pearl" their list. . .


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## PeterS (Jan 13, 2021)

tompalm said:


> https://mcusercontent.com/9413e262dc27f05659e3d74bd/files/f07a0c02-6308-4340-9acd-b67b773ae238/DUDE_and_BOB_Press_Release.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Interesting topic... A couple questions... Why would you say "Great for non retirement accounts and easy to stay long"?
It looks like the conservative stance and the ability to shift in market drops would work well in retirement accounts.
Also I tried to find info on fees for these (if any) and can't find them listed. Any info on that?
Thanks, PeterS


----------



## GetawaysRus (Jan 13, 2021)

PeterS said:


> Also I tried to find info on fees for these (if any) and can't find them listed. Any info on that?
> Thanks, PeterS



I find that etfdb.com is a good source for basic info on ETFs.  Currently, though, I only see data there on WIZ, which has an expense ratio of 0.95%.

As an aside, there is also a useful site for closed end mutual funds: cefconnect.com


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## tompalm (Jan 13, 2021)

Fees on all are around one percent.  But if you are beating the index, by 10 percent or more and taking less risk, I don’t care about fees. They move to bonds, gold or cash when the trend turns down. That happens about 10-15 percent from the top, but it is better to be out then and not ride out a 30-50 correction.  It does a 1035 exchange when it moves to other sectors, so no tax to pay until you sell.  That is why I recommend these for non-retirement accounts.


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## tompalm (Jan 13, 2021)

Good source for scanning best stocks or ETFs. I went overboard on clean energy ETFs about six months ago. I just picked the best SCTR and they all did well. Selling some right now, but still hold six ETFs like TAN, PBW, QCLN, SMOG, FAN, etc....  These are good for retirement accounts because I trade a lot. 









						SCTR Reports | StockCharts.com
					

SCTR reports for large, mid and small cap stocks, US ETFs, Dow Jones industries, Toronto, London and India stocks




					stockcharts.com


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## tompalm (Jan 13, 2021)

https://merlynetfs.com/bob/
		




			https://merlynetfs.com/dude/
		




			https://merlynetfs.com/wiz/


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## GetawaysRus (Jan 13, 2021)

Everybody wants to get into the act.

Here's another risk management ETF that I just read about, the Global X Adaptive U.S. Risk Management ETF (ONOF).









						Global X Deepens Core Suite with Risk Management ETF, ‘ONOF’
					

Global X ETFs, the New York-based provider of ETFs, announced the Global X Adaptive U.S. Risk Management ETF (ONOF).




					etfdb.com


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## Brett (Jan 13, 2021)

GetawaysRus said:


> Everybody wants to get into the act.
> 
> Here's another risk management ETF that I just read about, the Global X Adaptive U.S. Risk Management ETF (ONOF).
> 
> ...



yes, everybody wants to get in on the "act"

*https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffetts-latest-challenger-will-fizzle-like-the-rest-11610204581*

"Fund managers are often compared with dart-throwing monkeys. That might be too flattering for those who get the most attention. Hot funds’ performance is often worse than random on the downside"


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## Luvtoride (Jan 13, 2021)

Brett said:


> yes, everybody wants to get in on the "act"
> 
> *https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffetts-latest-challenger-will-fizzle-like-the-rest-11610204581*
> 
> "Fund managers are often compared with dart-throwing monkeys. That might be too flattering for those who get the most attention. Hot funds’ performance is often worse than random on the downside"



Brett, I saw that article in the WSJ. I had bought ARKK ETF in a October at $103. It has done quite well closing about $141 today. Will it (she the manager) stand the test of time in performance...who knows? I thought the strategy made sense and I liked the holdings.

I’m looking for a good ETF that focuses on the electric Vehicle market. There are so many players and angles to invest in from...battery makers, lithium miners, charging stations and the manufacturers and parts suppliers. 
I’ve seen a couple out there but nothing that really impressed me. 
Any ideas? 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Brett (Jan 14, 2021)

Luvtoride said:


> Brett, I saw that article in the WSJ. I had bought ARKK ETF in a October at $103. It has done quite well closing about $141 today. Will it (she the manager) stand the test of time in performance...who knows? I thought the strategy made sense and I liked the holdings.
> 
> I’m looking for a good ETF that focuses on the electric Vehicle market. There are so many players and angles to invest in from...battery makers, lithium miners, charging stations and the manufacturers and parts suppliers.
> I’ve seen a couple out there but nothing that really impressed me.
> ...



sorry, I do not have any stock market tips


Except large cap stock index funds (ETF) for the long term.   
and maybe some mid and small cap and international funds for diversification


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## rapmarks (Jan 14, 2021)

I dumped a lot of my mutual funds and some other investments in October for two reasons. Election fears and tax efficiency.  Some mutual funds throw off huge capital gain distributions but the total value remains the same.  I am saving a big amount on taxes this year


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Jan 14, 2021)

I had no idea the Dow was climbing like this.  I just checked current numbers.  I am thinking of closing our Roths to use for MF's for the next few years.  We put some of our Roth money into an annuity years ago and won't touch that for a long time.  

I don't really care to learn a lot about our investments, Rick listens to the advice of our former pastor who is a Primerica advisor.  Primerica is kind of a multi-level marketing company because he pushed to get us to sign up, kind of like Amway, and I told him to stop asking us because we have enough on our plate.  Pushed our son into trying it and he failed because he cannot sell anything.


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## PigsDad (Jan 14, 2021)

rapmarks said:


> I dumped a lot of my mutual funds and some other investments in October for two reasons. Election fears and tax efficiency.  Some mutual funds throw off huge capital gain distributions but the total value remains the same.  I am saving a big amount on taxes this year


Did you reinvest the proceeds back into the market immediately after you sold?  If not, you have missed a market rise of 10% since October.  And don't you now have to pay tax on the capital gains of what you sold?  Not seeing where you saved yourself anything, but I could be wrong.

Kurt


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## rapmarks (Jan 14, 2021)

PigsDad said:


> Did you reinvest the proceeds back into the market immediately after you sold?  If not, you have missed a market rise of 10% since October.  And don't you now have to pay tax on the capital gains of what you sold?  Not seeing where you saved yourself anything, but I could be wrong.
> 
> Kurt


No i  know I missed a 10 per cent rise but the fund was a big loser, so I took a giant winner a year early and balanced them.   I figure there will be another drop and I can get back in then.


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## Brett (Apr 2, 2021)

Stock market at new record highs





hope it continues going up .......................


----------



## easyrider (Apr 2, 2021)

More like "Buoyed by the Federal Treasury" imo. 

Bill


----------



## PamMo (Apr 2, 2021)

I expected a surge post-Covid, but equities are at an all-time high, housing markets are on fire, digital currency and "art" have blown into the stratosphere, SPAC's are picking up any companies that have a pulse... DH just asked me to pick a night to share a good bottle of scotch and decide where we want to put some cash.


----------



## VacationForever (Apr 2, 2021)

For most part, we do not need to tap into our investments besides RMD each year.  We just had our money manager liquidate $100K to pay for remodeling of our new home.  Other than that, I don't worry about whether the market goes up or down.


----------



## Talent312 (Apr 3, 2021)

Call me a happy-camper.
I pulled $50K for a new kitchen in 2019, and the market covered my tracks.
This year, I'll pull another 50K for a sunroom, mostly w-gains made to date. 

Although I'm 50-50 bonds to stock, w-interest rates so low these days,
where else can peep put their $$.
.


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## rapmarks (Apr 3, 2021)

PamMo said:


> I expected a surge post-Covid, but equities are at an all-time high, housing markets are on fire, digital currency and "art" have blown into the stratosphere, SPAC's are picking up any companies that have a pulse... DH just asked me to pick a night to share a good bottle of scotch and decide where we want to put some cash.


Let me know where to put that cash. Been sitting on mine since October


----------



## bbodb1 (Apr 3, 2021)

Talent312 said:


> Call me a happy-camper....



@Talent312 - Hello, Happy-Camper!


----------



## bogey21 (Apr 3, 2021)

rapmarks said:


> Let me know where to put that cash. Been sitting on mine since October


Either Short Term Bank CDs or Low Duration Bond Funds.  You won't get much in the way of interest but you won't be locked in when rates ultimately go up...

George


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## Luvtoride (Apr 10, 2021)

rapmarks said:


> Let me know where to put that cash. Been sitting on mine since October



Please don’t all jump on me, but you should look at cryptocurrency. I don’t mean just Bitcoin but there are several others to invest in as well. My wife and I have started moving some idle cash into these “coins” and several are up over 50% in a couple of weeks. Start learning about this area... you’ll be glad you did! 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Fried_shrimp (Apr 10, 2021)

Luvtoride said:


> Please don’t all jump on me, but you should look at cryptocurrency. I don’t mean just Bitcoin but there are several others to invest in as well. My wife and I have started moving some idle cash into these “coins” and several are up over 50% in a couple of weeks. Start learning about this area... you’ll be glad you did!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Cryptocurrency is also a product that has no actual substance. I have looked at it and it is purely a speculative market that bounces with the wind for no real reason which is why I wouldn't touch that stuff with a 10 ft pole.


----------



## bbodb1 (Apr 10, 2021)

Fried_shrimp said:


> Cryptocurrency is also a product that has no actual substance. I have looked at it and it is purely a speculative market that bounces with the wind for no real reason which is why I wouldn't touch that stuff with a 10 ft pole.


Just to add to that, I recall the derivatives market from some years ago.  While the stock market (at times) is not for the fainthearted, investing in weird or obscure markets would ratchet things up on the old nerve-o-meter to (previously unreachable) heights of anxiety.  No thanks from here too...


----------



## am1 (Apr 10, 2021)

Luvtoride said:


> Please don’t all jump on me, but you should look at cryptocurrency. I don’t mean just Bitcoin but there are several others to invest in as well. My wife and I have started moving some idle cash into these “coins” and several are up over 50% in a couple of weeks. Start learning about this area... you’ll be glad you did!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I would rather invest it in Las Vegas.  Which I don’t do.


----------



## HitchHiker71 (Apr 10, 2021)

Luvtoride said:


> Please don’t all jump on me, but you should look at cryptocurrency. I don’t mean just Bitcoin but there are several others to invest in as well. My wife and I have started moving some idle cash into these “coins” and several are up over 50% in a couple of weeks. Start learning about this area... you’ll be glad you did!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Cryptocurrency speculation is not for the faint of heart. Unless you really understand what crypto is really all about - the democratization of currency and the tokenization of digital assets - all to promote the DeFi movement - then I would recommend buying into a crypto ETF. Here’s one article on a few recommended crypto ETFs:









						5 Best Crypto ETFs RIght Now • [List & Prices] • Benzinga
					

Trading cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum can be risky for traders new to investing. Consider investing in crypto ETFs.




					www.benzinga.com
				




There are significant tax consequences and risks - apart from the arbitrage aspect itself - to holding cryptocurrency coins directly. If you didn’t notice the line at the top of the IRS 1040 form that appeared a couple years ago:

“At any time during 2020, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?”

If so, welcome to form 8949. Every sale transaction is a capital gains taxable event:









						How to Report Crypto on Tax Forms 8949 and 1040
					

In this five-step guide, we outline how to report cryptocurrency on taxes and file crypto tax forms, such as Form 8949.




					tokentax.co
				




You also have to recognize that holding coins means you are then committing to maintaining a software wallet at a minimum - which involves public and private keys for security - and potentially a hardware wallet if holding any significant amount of cryptocurrency. Many folks do not understand the criticality of wallets in the digital world - and oftentimes are targets of hackers who want to steal your coins. Quite a few folks also simply lose their security keys - after which it is difficult if not impossible to recover your wallet - meaning the coins are lost forever. Fully 20-% of Bitcoins are likely forever lost for this very reason:









						Lost Bitcoin: 3.7 million Bitcoin are probably gone forever - Decrypt
					

Around 20% of currently minted Bitcoin are gone forever: Here's where they went.




					decrypt.co
				




I actually hold two types of cryptocurrency - ETH and ADA - directly in wallets. But I’ve studied cryptocurrency for years and understand the value proposition as it relates to the increasing limitations, debt, trade and reserve challenges that are plaguing fiat currencies, and particularly the USD, across the globe. Most folks have little to no understanding of what is happening behind the scenes globally with DeFi and why cryptocurrencies are emerging as nextgen solutions for currency overall. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## HitchHiker71 (Apr 10, 2021)

Fried_shrimp said:


> Cryptocurrency is also a product that has no actual substance. I have looked at it and it is purely a speculative market that bounces with the wind for no real reason which is why I wouldn't touch that stuff with a 10 ft pole.



Same with fiat currencies really - fundamentally any fiat currency has no actual substance either - other than the confidence placed in them by the people - which if anyone hasn’t noticed - the mass devaluation of fiat currencies is an ongoing global problem. Many central banks are attempting to bring their own digital currencies to market as a result - finally recognizing the DeFi movement - but I don’t believe the future will require centralized currency models - and therefore the democratization of currency vis crypto is well under way. 

Watch over the next few years as several third world countries formally adopt cryptocurrency platforms as their national currencies - and then watch as the legacy fiat currencies start to lose grasp, confidence and value on the currency markets - just how quickly things may change. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## HitchHiker71 (Apr 10, 2021)

bbodb1 said:


> Just to add to that, I recall the derivatives market from some years ago. While the stock market (at times) is not for the fainthearted, investing in weird or obscure markets would ratchet things up on the old nerve-o-meter to (previously unreachable) heights of anxiety. No thanks from here too...



Right now it’s definitely not for the faint of heart - that much is certain. Even if we assume that the democratization of currency is a certainty moving forward via the DeFi movement - that still means only a lucky few cryptocurrencies are likely to survive long term. I’ve got my guesses in place - but at the end of the day it’s anyone’s guess as to which digital currencies will emerge as winners in the DeFi wars to come. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## bogey21 (Apr 10, 2021)

For those interested in Crypto but without the knowledge or resources to buy it directly in wallets I recommend the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust  (GBTC is the stock symbol) rather than one of the ETFs (other than the new on on the Toronto Stock Exchange).  I say this because as best as I can tell all of the ETFs available in the US are a portfolio of stocks involved with crypto but don't own crypto directly...

On the other hand the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust owns only Bitcoin.  It operates much like a Closed End Mutual Fund in that it trades on supply and demand for its shares not the Net Asset Value of the Bitcoin in its portfolio.  Last I looked GBTC was trading at about an 8% discount to the value of the Bitcoin it holds.  The way you tell if the share price of GBTC is trading at a discount or a premium to the underlying value of one share of the Trust is to divide the price of Bitcoin by 1054 and compare your answer to what a share of GBTC is selling for.  Example:  If Bitcoin is trading at $60,000.  $60,000 divided by 1054 is  $56.92.  Compare this to the price of one share of GBTC to see how much discount or premium GBTC is to Bitcoin itself...

George


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## HitchHiker71 (Apr 10, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> For those interested in Crypto but without the knowledge or resources to buy it directly in wallets I recommend the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC is the stock symbol) rather than one of the ETFs (other than the new on on the Toronto Stock Exchange). I say this because as best as I can tell all of the ETFs available in the US are a portfolio of stocks involved with crypto but don't own crypto directly...
> 
> On the other hand the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust owns only Bitcoin. It operates much like a Closed End Mutual Fund in that it trades on supply and demand for its shares not the Net Asset Value of the Bitcoin in its portfolio. Last I looked GBTC was trading at about an 8% discount to the value of the Bitcoin it holds. The way you tell if the share price of GBTC is trading at a discount or a premium to the underlying value of one share of the Trust is to divide the price of Bitcoin by 1054 and compare your answer to what a share of GBTC is selling for. Example: If Bitcoin is trading at $60,000. $60,000 divided by 1054 is $56.92. Compare this to the price of one share of GBTC to see how much discount or premium GBTC is to Bitcoin itself...
> 
> George



The only issue I have with this approach is that the growth we are likely to see in cryptocurrency is not going to be limited to BTC. So by investing in the Grayscale trust you are exposing yourself to only one of over 2000 cryptocurrencies. But I agree that Grayscale is a good option for anyone who wants portfolio exposure to BTC.

For those who aren’t aware, BTC (Bitcoin) is a 1st generation cryptocurrency. It has inherent limits and does not have any capability to process smart contracts like the newer 2nd/3rd gen cryptocurrencies like ETH or ADA. BTC is also still a POW crypto (mining only) - with no plans to move toward a POS model via a major code fork at present - though it is expected that at some point BTC2 will become a reality. For these reasons, BTC is seen as the equivalent of gold in the current crypto world. It’s a digital store of value in other words. It has a lifetime maximum of 21mm coins in the current blockchain. Therefore, it will never be used as a democratized cryptocurrency engine. 

Most of the future growth opportunities in crypto are more likely to be tied to cryptocurrencies that can process smart contracts that deliver tokenization of digital assets. 

The problem with native crypto ETFs here in the US is that the SEC has not yet approved any ETF to hold actual crypto directly. There are ETFs in Europe and Canada that are on the exchanges, but not here yet:









						Bitcoin ETF: Definition, How It Works, and How to Invest
					

A Bitcoin ETF is like a mutual fund, but the intent is to track Bitcoin's price and trade on an exchange. Learn about these new types of ETFs.




					www.investopedia.com
				




So the best one can do here in the US, as Bogey21 mentioned, is to hold an ETF that has stakes in companies that hold native crypto. Hopefully we will see approval of native crypto ETFs here in the US in 2021 - after which we will likely see demand skyrocket - which will mean major valuation spikes especially for the more established and capable cryptocurrencies.

We are already starting to see some really large companies like Apple and Tesla take BTC as a direct form of payment. The prevalence of cryptocurrencies as real mediums of payment will only increase in the months and years ahead. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 11, 2021)

Tap This Little-Known Fixed Income Stream For 6.6% Yields.










						Tap This Little-Known Fixed Income Stream For 6.6% Yields
					

The market isn’t doing fixed-income investors any favors right now.




					www.forbes.com
				



.


Richard


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## Brett (Apr 11, 2021)

HitchHiker71 said:


> The only issue I have with this approach is that the growth we are likely to see in cryptocurrency is not going to be limited to BTC. So by investing in the Grayscale trust you are exposing yourself to only one of over 2000 cryptocurrencies. But I agree that Grayscale is a good option for anyone who wants portfolio exposure to BTC.
> 
> For those who aren’t aware, BTC (Bitcoin) is a 1st generation cryptocurrency. It has inherent limits and does not have any capability to process smart contracts like the newer 2nd/3rd gen cryptocurrencies like ETH or ADA. BTC is also still a POW crypto (mining only) - with no plans to move toward a POS model via a major code fork at present - though it is expected that at some point BTC2 will become a reality. For these reasons, BTC is seen as the equivalent of gold in the current crypto world. It’s a digital store of value in other words. It has a lifetime maximum of 21mm coins in the current blockchain. Therefore, it will never be used as a democratized cryptocurrency engine.
> 
> ...




China has already implemented their 'digital' yuan

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-...urrency-a-first-for-major-economy-11617634118

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/chinas-digital-yuan-what-is-it-and-how-does-it-work.html


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## HitchHiker71 (Apr 11, 2021)

Brett said:


> China has already implemented their 'digital' yuan
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-...urrency-a-first-for-major-economy-11617634118
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/chinas-digital-yuan-what-is-it-and-how-does-it-work.html



Yep, I’ve been tracking that as well. Many Asian countries are embracing digital currency:









						Digital currencies are the future in Asia | East Asia Forum
					

Asian countries need to embrace digital payment technologies or they risk being left in the monetary dark ages




					www.eastasiaforum.org
				




The way I see it - the calculated bet looking into the future is on companies that are offering up products and solutions that democratize their segment. This includes currency. For the past 80 years we have built solutions for certain segments of our society that embraced a centralized model. Then the internet came along - which itself is a democratized solution - the great equalizer - providing unlimited data sources and capabilities to everyone with access. As of Jan 2021 - 60% of the worlds population has internet access, and 93% of that access is via mobile devices:









						Internet and social media users in the world 2022 | Statista
					

How many people use the internet in 2022? Several billions of the people who have access to the internet are social media users.




					www.statista.com
				




As an aside, for anyone wondering why the new Club Wyndham website caters to mobile devices - this is the answer. 

As access to the internet continues to grow - more and more industry segments will pursue democratization efforts. This includes areas of our economy that for the past 80+ years have largely embraced a more centralized model. Areas such as energy, transportation, currency, banking, immigration, suffrage, and the list goes on. For those of us who have lived through much of the past 80 years - this all sounds out of this world - but is more likely to happen than to not happen. Those who are investing with this in mind - stand to make a ton of money in the process. 

Need some evidence? Look at the growth in cryptocurrencies. Look at the growth of Tesla - who is focused on democratization of energy and transportation - and soon to come - HVAC (yet another segment). It’s a brave new world out there folks - invest with that in mind. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 12, 2021)

Bitcoin: China Has Launched a Digital Yuan. And it Will Change Everything.










						Bitcoin: China Has Launched a Digital Yuan. And it Will Change Everything
					

When the dust settles, and China and the U.S. and its allies battle it out for control of the supreme digital payment platform, Bitcoin holders will be left holding the bag. Here's why.




					seekingalpha.com
				



.


Richard


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## Luvtoride (Apr 13, 2021)

Hitchhiker and Bogey,
Very well said on your various posts above explaining the workings, use and adoption of Cryptocurrency around the world.

I don’t think that any explanation here will convince someone to invest in this area but for the curious it should lead to further research and understanding about these changes coming to the world economy.

Another example of this is how PayPal and MasterCard among other big payment processors are adopting Bitcoin in order to “offer” it as a payment option to vendors using their services. Making Bitcoin into a more easily accepted form of payment will hasten its wider adoption into the mainstream.

On my recent vacation in Aruba, one restaurant accepted Bitcoin for payment. Although it might end up being the most expensive breakfast I’ll ever buy (when the value of Bitcoin increases multiple times in the future) it was well worth the experience to use my Bitcoin wallet to pay for something in an easy, fast and secure transaction. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## SmithOp (Apr 13, 2021)

Big day tomorrow, anyone buying Coinbase?


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## Brett (Apr 14, 2021)

SmithOp said:


> Big day tomorrow, anyone buying Coinbase?



Not me,  I believe in block chain technology but COIN as an investment ---  maybe a very small % of one's portfolio allocated for 'speculation'
I imagine it will be a wild ride


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 14, 2021)

Today is the biggest day yet for the crypto world.










						Today is the biggest day yet for the crypto world
					

Your five-minute guide to what's happening in tech this Wednesday, from the stakes facing Coinbase's direct listing to a new bill designed to curb the power of NDAs.




					www.protocol.com
				



.


Richard


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 14, 2021)

Coinbase shares open at $381 On Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.










						Coinbase valued at close to $100 billion in its Nasdaq debut
					

Coinbase held its direct listing on the Nasdaq on Wednesday, luring public market investors who've been waiting to get into the cryptocurrency exchange.




					www.cnbc.com
				



.


Richard


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 14, 2021)

A NYC real-estate titan who learned about crypto from his teenage son has secured $6 billion in gold to back a new digital token.










						A NYC real-estate titan who learned about crypto from his teenage son has secured $6 billion in gold to back a new digital token
					

Real estate mogul Kent Swig. Courtesy of Kent Swig   Real estate mogul Kent Swig has landed $6 billion in gold reserves to back a new cryptocurr...




					markets.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


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## HitchHiker71 (Apr 14, 2021)

SmithOp said:


> Big day tomorrow, anyone buying Coinbase?



I’m not buying on the initial frenzy - I’ve got this on my watch list and will track it moving forward. More interesting to me was the recent Binance announcement for tokenizing stock:









						Binance Launches Tesla Stock Token - Decrypt
					

The crypto exchange has launched zero-commission, tradable stock tokens, the first of which is Tesla.




					decrypt.co
				




Possible replacement for traditional exchanges?


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 14, 2021)

Coinbase Closes First Day of Trading Down 14% From Debut Price - Decrypt.










						Coinbase Closes First Day of Trading Down 14% From Debut Price - Decrypt
					

The price of Coinbase stock slipped on its first day of public trading—after starting the day at $381 a share, $COIN fell to $328.




					decrypt.co
				



.


Richard


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 14, 2021)

Brian Armstrong, Coinbase's CEO, is now one of the richest people on Earth.










						Brian Armstrong, Coinbase's CEO, is now one of the richest people on Earth
					

The billionaires club got bigger Wednesday with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joining the coveted coven.




					www.cnn.com
				





Richard


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## SmithOp (Apr 15, 2021)

Brett said:


> Not me, I believe in block chain technology but COIN as an investment --- maybe a very small % of one's portfolio allocated for 'speculation'
> I imagine it will be a wild ride



I had some mad money sitting in cash so I put in a limit order for 50 shares @$340, it finally got there late in the day. If it runs up to $500 I have a sell order to recover my cost and just play a few shares with house money.

I expect it will be a wild ride but I like the play, I don’t understand enough about crypto but there is money to be made on the transaction processing. Its like timeshares, the exchange companies exist on fees.


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## PigsDad (Apr 15, 2021)

Here's an opinion piece that predicts the market may still continue to rise significantly (30%!) this year:









						'Enjoy this ride' — Wharton's Jeremy Siegel says stock market could go up 30% before boom ends
					

"We're not in the ninth inning here. We're more like in the third inning," longtime stock bull Jeremy Siegel told CNBC.




					www.cnbc.com
				




Kurt


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## bogey21 (Apr 15, 2021)

SmithOp said:


> Big day tomorrow, anyone buying Coinbase?


Currently I own no stocks but have a Day Order in as I post this to buy Coinbase at $320...

George

Update - My order was filled.  Later I had second thoughts and sold at a samll profit.  I think I will let the dust settle before buying again...


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 15, 2021)

Mark Cuban says bitcoin is far from its market top: 'The opportunity for it to go much higher certainly exists'










						Mark Cuban says bitcoin is far from its market top: 'The opportunity for it to go much higher certainly exists'
					

Bitcoin hit a record high on Wednesday in anticipation of Coinbase's direct listing. According to Mark Cuban, this isn't the peak for the cryptocurrency, but it's still volatile.




					www.cnbc.com
				



.


Richard


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## joestein (Apr 15, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> Mark Cuban says bitcoin is far from its market top: 'The opportunity for it to go much higher certainly exists'
> 
> 
> 
> ...



An article about a bunch of people who have a vested interest in bitcoin rising, talking in maybes and possibilities about how much bitcoin will rise.   What a shock.


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## Brett (Apr 16, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> Mark Cuban says bitcoin is far from its market top: 'The opportunity for it to go much higher certainly exists'
> 
> 
> 
> ...



bitcoin could go higher .....or it could go lower.   
 that's some advice !

" those wary of bitcoin say it’s too speculative, volatile and risky to invest in. There also could be future regulation by the government. The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, for example, found that about 74% of respondents think bitcoin is in a bubble."


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## HitchHiker71 (Apr 16, 2021)

Brett said:


> bitcoin could go higher .....or it could go lower.
> that's some advice !
> 
> " those wary of bitcoin say it’s too speculative, volatile and risky to invest in. There also could be future regulation by the government. The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, for example, found that about 74% of respondents think bitcoin is in a bubble."



The challenge most people don’t understand with respect to government regulation is that it’s not possible by traditional standards. It’s like saying the government will regulate internet commerce. How? The internet is not centralized - it’s a distributed network that literally exists almost everywhere. Same with cryptocurrencies, it’s a democratized and distributed blockchain that exists everywhere worldwide now - the entire ledger for the blockchain is electronically distributed and held by various coin stakeholders worldwide.  Blockchain technology was built to decentralize finance by design (hence the defi term often associated with crypto). The best the government could do is to tax cryptocurrency transactions.

The third generation cryptocurrencies like Cardano are offering up governance capabilities to encourage nation states to consider adopting digital currencies as national currencies. It is rumored that at least one African nation will soon announce adoption of Cardano as their national currency platform - in part to better reach the unbanked. Democratization of digital currencies like this will likely help third world nations to compete against traditional first world nations that still embrace their own fiat currencies. Fiat currencies are the dial up internet modems of times past, digital currencies are the broadband internet connections that are the future. Just a question of when, not if. The day of the USD as the world reserve currency are numbered IMHO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 16, 2021)

Dogecoin spikes 300% in a week, stoking fears of a cryptocurrency bubble.










						Dogecoin spikes 300% in a week, stoking fears of a cryptocurrency bubble
					

Defying all odds, dogecoin is now worth $34 billion, and its price has risen by a whopping 300% in the last seven days.




					www.cnbc.com
				



.


Richard


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 16, 2021)

Jim Cramer bought bitcoin when it was worth $12,000 - and said he recently sold half his 'phony' portfolio to pay off a mortgage.










						Jim Cramer bought bitcoin when it was worth $12,000 - and said he recently sold half his 'phony' portfolio to pay off a mortgage
					

CNBC 'Mad Money' host, Jim Cramer. Brad Barket/Getty Images   CNBC 'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer used bitcoin profits to pay off a mortgage. He sa...




					markets.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 16, 2021)

HitchHiker71 said:


> The challenge most people don’t understand with respect to government regulation is that it’s not possible by traditional standards. It’s like saying the government will regulate internet commerce. How? The internet is not centralized - it’s a distributed network that literally exists almost everywhere. Same with cryptocurrencies, it’s a democratized and distributed blockchain that exists everywhere worldwide now - the entire ledger for the blockchain is electronically distributed and held by various coin stakeholders worldwide.  Blockchain technology was built to decentralize finance by design (hence the defi term often associated with crypto). The best the government could do is to tax cryptocurrency transactions.
> 
> The third generation cryptocurrencies like Cardano are offering up governance capabilities to encourage nation states to consider adopting digital currencies as national currencies. It is rumored that at least one African nation will soon announce adoption of Cardano as their national currency platform - in part to better reach the unbanked. Democratization of digital currencies like this will likely help third world nations to compete against traditional first world nations that still embrace their own fiat currencies. Fiat currencies are the dial up internet modems of times past, digital currencies are the broadband internet connections that are the future. Just a question of when, not if. The day of the USD as the world reserve currency are numbered IMHO.
> 
> ...



Cryptocurrencies are every bit as much "fiat" as the current national currencies. The difference is the instead of the "full faith and credit in the government" of a national currency, cryptocurrencies are backed by the "full faith that people will value an algorithm over everything else". 

I guess I just don't have that faith.


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## rapmarks (Apr 16, 2021)

Back in early 2000 I made  some stock market decisions that I came to regret.  After that, I let my financial advisor run his ideas by me.  I did buy QQQ and Verisign when low to my credit.


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 16, 2021)

It's okay if you're still confused about Coinbase Let us explain why it matters now.




			https://www.fastcompany.com/90626194/its-okay-if-youre-still-confused-about-coinbase-let-us-explain-why-it-matters-now?partner=rss&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss+fastcompany&utm_content=rss
		

.


Richard


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## HitchHiker71 (Apr 16, 2021)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Cryptocurrencies are every bit as much "fiat" as the current national currencies. The difference is the instead of the "full faith and credit in the government" of a national currency, cryptocurrencies are backed by the "full faith that people will value an algorithm over everything else".
> 
> I guess I just don't have that faith.



That’s not entirely accurate. The difference between the current fiat currencies and crypto is that a central bank doesn’t control the ledger. The cryptocurrency ledger is written and maintained cia a distributed model via the blockchain technology. The blockchain is not hackable and cannot be altered once recorded into the electronic ledger via mining (POW) or once staked (POS). The ledger cannot therefore be manipulated by any central bank to devalue the currency or manipulate the currency like many governments, ours included, do today. The government is supposed to represent the people. The cryptocurrencies are decentralized and are maintained by people either mining or staking the currencies to the blockchain via electronic ledger transactions. Crypto is all about putting the power where it really belongs - with the people - not with national governments that are prone to corruption and politics. Our government has managed to run up a 28+TT dollar debt and rising. I have little to no faith in any national government entity that has managed finances and fiat currencies so badly over time. I have faith in the people, and my faith ends there. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Brett (Apr 16, 2021)

HitchHiker71 said:


> That’s not entirely accurate. The difference between the current fiat currencies and crypto is that a central bank doesn’t control the ledger. The cryptocurrency ledger is written and maintained cia a distributed model via the blockchain technology. The blockchain is not hackable and cannot be altered once recorded into the electronic ledger via mining (POW) or once staked (POS). The ledger cannot therefore be manipulated by any central bank to devalue the currency or manipulate the currency like many governments, ours included, so today. The government is supposed to represent the people. The cryptocurrencies are decentralized and are maintained by people either mining or staking the currencies to the blockchain via electronic ledger transactions. Crypto is all about putting the power where it really belongs - with the people - not with national governments that are prone to corruption and politics. Our government has managed to run up a 28+TT dollar debt and rising. I have little to no faith in any national government entity that has managed finances and fiat currencies so badly over time. I have faith in the people, and my faith ends there.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



true -   but a majority of the people has to believe the crypto currency is better than their government's currency and the crypto currency is readily and easily acceptable as a medium of exchange.   
When that occurs it is similar to gold or other precious metals


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 16, 2021)

HitchHiker71 said:


> That’s not entirely accurate. The difference between the current fiat currencies and crypto is that a central bank doesn’t control the ledger. The cryptocurrency ledger is written and maintained cia a distributed model via the blockchain technology. The blockchain is not hackable and cannot be altered once recorded into the electronic ledger via mining (POW) or once staked (POS). The ledger cannot therefore be manipulated by any central bank to devalue the currency or manipulate the currency like many governments, ours included, so today. The government is supposed to represent the people. The cryptocurrencies are decentralized and are maintained by people either mining or staking the currencies to the blockchain via electronic ledger transactions. Crypto is all about putting the power where it really belongs - with the people - not with national governments that are prone to corruption and politics. Our government has managed to run up a 28+TT dollar debt and rising. I have little to no faith in any national government entity that has managed finances and fiat currencies so badly over time. I have faith in the people, and my faith ends there.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


 What happened to the bitcoins hacked from MT Gox? Or any of the other bitcoin exchanges? Since they had the block chain technology, why weren't they tracked down as stolen property? That's my take on bitcoin security. 

I first heard of bitcoin in 2009 at around $1 per bitcoin. I felt the security was dodgy, inasmuch as there was no way to stop stolen coins from being used (and no end of hackers trying to get them.).


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## MULTIZ321 (Apr 16, 2021)

These are the 10 best-performing cryptocurrencies so far in 2021 - and one is up more than 8,000%










						These are the 10 best-performing cryptocurrencies so far in 2021 - and one is up more than 8,000%
					

Lucas Jackson/Reuters  Cryptocurrencies have been on a tear so far in 2021, with bitcoin up more than 100% year-to-date.The Coinbase direct lis...




					markets.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


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## HitchHiker71 (Apr 16, 2021)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> What happened to the bitcoins hacked from MT Gox? Or any of the other bitcoin exchanges? Since they had the block chain technology, why weren't they tracked down as stolen property? That's my take on bitcoin security.
> 
> I first heard of bitcoin in 2009 at around $1 per bitcoin. I felt the security was dodgy, inasmuch as there was no way to stop stolen coins from being used (and no end of hackers trying to get them.).



MT Gox was an exchange that went bankrupt way back in 2011 - ten years ago - a lifetime ago in technology terms. The coins were stolen from a hacked wallet held by the exchange - and the exchange itself was hacked to facilitate false transactions. The blockchain and electronic ledger itself was never hacked. The exchange was obviously using a software wallet that could be hacked.

That said, the exchanges even today need improvement. This is where regulation would help - much like the SEC regulates the market exchanges today that are also private sector entities. 

It’s not much different than if someone steals your actual physical wallet today - if that happens then you’ll lose your money - whether fiat currency or credit cards or cryptocurrency. If you don’t secure your money properly, it’s likely to be stolen. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 16, 2021)

Dogecoin is on a run, has escaped the yard, and is headed to the moon.










						Dogecoin is on a run, has escaped the yard, and is headed to the moon
					

The joke’s over and the money’s real




					www.theverge.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 16, 2021)

HitchHiker71 said:


> MT Gox was an exchange that went bankrupt way back in 2011 - ten years ago - a lifetime ago in technology terms. The coins were stolen from a hacked wallet held by the exchange - and the exchange itself was hacked to facilitate false transactions. The blockchain and electronic ledger itself was never hacked. The exchange was obviously using a software wallet that could be hacked.
> 
> That said, the exchanges even today need improvement. This is where regulation would help - much like the SEC regulates the market exchanges today that are also private sector entities.
> 
> ...



But the point of block chain is an unhackable audit trail. So any stolen property should have been easily identified. It was not. That is why I have no confidence in the cryptocurrency concept. It lacks security. What good is an audit trail that isn't used? 

To use your physical wallet example. If every bit of money in it had a unique serial number (and it does), and every time a piece of money was automatically checked when it was exchanged (which it isn't - today); then what good would it do the person who stole it? The money couldn't be used for anything but starting a fire. Cryptocurrencies are supposed to work that way, but they don't.

But in the end, security aside, cryptocurrencies only have value because people <believe> they have value. They have no other utility otherwise. You can't do anything with them, they have no physical existence. You can at least burn paper money for warmth. Even tulips has uses. . .


----------



## Brett (Apr 17, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> Dogecoin is on a run, has escaped the yard, and is headed to the moon.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Put a leash on that dog coin !


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 17, 2021)

Dogecoin Price Plunges to $0.27, Halting
 Impressive Rally - Decrypt.











						Dogecoin Price Plunges to $0.27, Halting Impressive Rally - Decrypt
					

Dogecoin was up almost 400% since last weekend. It has begun to decline today, dropping 25% in the space of a few hours.




					decrypt.co
				



.


Richard


----------



## HitchHiker71 (Apr 17, 2021)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> But the point of block chain is an unhackable audit trail. So any stolen property should have been easily identified. It was not. That is why I have no confidence in the cryptocurrency concept. It lacks security. What good is an audit trail that isn't used?
> 
> To use your physical wallet example. If every bit of money in it had a unique serial number (and it does), and every time a piece of money was automatically checked when it was exchanged (which it isn't - today); then what good would it do the person who stole it? The money couldn't be used for anything but starting a fire. Cryptocurrencies are supposed to work that way, but they don't.



You’re conflating the problems experienced ten years ago with one of the first cryptocurrencies that did not yet have the auditing capabilities built into the blockchain like modern gen2/gen3 cryptocurrencies that have these functions inbuilt to their blockchains. 



> But in the end, security aside, cryptocurrencies only have value because people  they have value.



You can say the exact same thing about fiat currencies.



> They have no other utility otherwise. You can't do anything with them, they have no physical existence. You can at least burn paper money for warmth. Even tulips has uses. . .



This is not an accurate statement either. Do you understand what smart contract capable cryptocurrencies are being used for today? Forget about Bitcoin - it’s a dinosaur compared to Ethereum and Cardano for example. Bitcoin isn’t capable of smart contracts and likely never will be unless and until they fork Bitcoin into BTC2.









						A Dive Into Smart Contracts and DeFi | CoinMarketCap
					

Contributor: smart contracts are essential to the decentralized finance space. What exactly are they?




					coinmarketcap.com
				




When we begin to understand the defi movement and how important smart contracts are to eliminate middle men and enable automated transfer of goods and services directly from buyer to seller - we can begin to see why defi is all but inevitable - even if it’s in its relative infancy today. There was a time when fiat currencies were crazy talk - when all currencies were tied to precious metals - but that time has come and gone and here we are with mass adoption of fiat currencies having become the norm. Cryptocurrencies are simply the next evolution of currency in the modern world. 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 18, 2021)

Bitcoin Price Falls $8K to 3-Week Low, Altcoins Crash - CoinDesk.










						Bitcoin Price Falls $8K to 3-Week Low, Altcoins Crash - CoinDesk
					

Bitcoin nosedived to a three-week low of $52,148 during Sunday's Asian hours.




					www.coindesk.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 18, 2021)

Silicon Valley 'Super Angel ' Investor Ron Conway Says Crypto Economy is the Next Multitrillion Dollar Opportunity - Market:s and Prices Bit:coin News.










						Silicon Valley 'Super Angel' Investor Ron Conway Says Crypto Economy Is the Next Multitrillion Dollar Opportunity – Markets and Prices Bitcoin News
					

Famed Silicon Valley "super angel" investor Ron Conway sees the crypto economy as the next multitrillion-dollar opportunity in innovation. The Silicon Valley legend likens Coinbase to Google after the company's IPO via a direct listing on Nasdaq.




					news.bitcoin.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 18, 2021)

Bitcoin plummets more than 10% to less than $55,000 in its biggest drop in months, just days after reaching a record $64,800.










						Bitcoin plummets more than 10% to less than $55,000 in its biggest drop in months, just days after reaching a record $64,800
					

Bitcoin reached a low of $51,300 after it dropped more than $7,000 in a single hour, before recovering slightly. It hit nearly $65,000 in the week.




					www.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 18, 2021)

What Could Have Caused Bitcoin to Flash Crash On Sunday?










						What Could Have Caused Bitcoin to Flash Crash On Sunday?
					

Bitcoin saw a dramatic $10,000 flash crash early on Sunday morning. Triggering over $10 billion in liquidations over the last 24 hours. What could have caused the drop?




					finance.yahoo.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## bogey21 (Apr 18, 2021)

Can't wait until tomorrow morning to see where GBTC and COIN open.  I am out of both as of last Friday and may jump back in at the right price...

George

Update:  I did jump back into GBTC at a price well less than where I sold.  Still hoping for COIN to go lower...


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 19, 2021)

Bitcoin suffers flash crash following week of crypto hype.










						Bitcoin suffers flash crash following week of crypto hype
					

After a hype-filled week for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin experienced a flash crash over the weekend, plunging nearly 14% in less than an hour, from about $59,000 to $51,000, on Saturday night before rebounding. Other popular cryptocurrencies including ethereum and Dogecoin also fell dramatically...




					www.cnn.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 19, 2021)

US SEC Expected to Impose 'Fair Amount' of Regulation on Cryptocurrencies, Says Former
 Chairman.










						US SEC Expected to Impose 'Fair Amount' of Regulation on Cryptocurrencies, Says Former Chairman – Regulation Bitcoin News
					

Former SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt says that he expects a "fair amount" of crypto regulation coming from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) following the confirmation of the new chairman.




					news.bitcoin.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 19, 2021)

Fisker is The Future That Will Make Investors
 Incredibly Rich And Quickly Generate Over 1000% in
 Gains. (NASDAQ:AAPL)







						Stock Picks, Stock Market Investing
					






					seekingalpha.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 22, 2021)

Billion-Dollar Rug Pull? Turkish Bitcoin Exchange
 Goes Dark - Decrypt










						Billion-Dollar Rug Pull? Turkish Bitcoin Exchange Goes Dark - Decrypt
					

Turkish cryptocurrency exchange Thodex abruptly halted trading this morning without prior notice, locking up the funds of its 391,000 active traders.




					decrypt.co
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 24, 2021)

What you need to know about Ethereum's chances of hitting $2600 again.










						What you need to know about Ethereum’s chances of hitting $2600 again
					

Despite the bloodbath in the wider altcoin market, Ethereum HODLers are persevering through the price drop. In fact, at the time of writing, the concentration by large HODLers was found to be at 41%, with the same suggesting that there is the likelihood that the price may soon rally higher to...




					ambcrypto.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 24, 2021)

How to buy SafeMoon the new crypto craze touted as the next Dogecoin.










						How to buy SafeMoon — the new crypto craze touted as the next Dogecoin
					

We answer your questions: what is SafeMoon, how to buy SafeMoon and where to buy SafeMoon




					www.laptopmag.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Brett (Apr 25, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> Fisker is The Future That Will Make Investors
> Incredibly Rich And Quickly Generate Over 1000% in
> Gains. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
> 
> ...



Fisker investors will become "incredibly rich"   ............. or get "hammered"
https://www.barrons.com/articles/sell-ev-stoc-fisker-now-goldman-sachs-explains-why-51619105340?


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 25, 2021)

Paypal CEO Dan Schulman: Cryptocurrency is the Real Deal. And the Superapps Are Coming.










						Paypal CEO Talks Cryptocurrency And The Rise Of Super Apps
					

The pandemic spiked demand for digital payments.




					time.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 25, 2021)

Crypto Exchange Founder Disappears with $2 Billion.










						Crypto Exchange Founder Disappears with $2 Billion
					

Gimme all your Dogecoins




					www.tomshardware.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 26, 2021)

New federal regulations could spur cryptocurrency crash.










						New federal regulations could spur cryptocurrency crash
					

Ask Wall Street’s C-suite types about cryptocurrencies, and they all admit they’re getting   into them one way or another. But keep asking questions, and they’ll tell you something else, too: the m…




					nypost.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 26, 2021)

Bitcoin cheat sheet: Everything professionals need to know.










						Bitcoin cheat sheet: Everything professionals need to know
					

If you're curious about the original decentralized cryptocurrency, here's what you need to know about Bitcoin, including why the price of a bitcoin keeps climbing.




					www.techrepublic.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 27, 2021)

Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrenc exchange, is launching an NFT marketplace.










						Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, is launching an NFT marketplace
					

NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, are a type of digital asset designed to represent ownership of rare virtual items.




					www.cnbc.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## bogey21 (Apr 27, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> Can't wait until tomorrow morning to see where GBTC and COIN open.  I am out of both as of last Friday and may jump back in at the right price...
> 
> George
> 
> ...


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 27, 2021)

Gemini's Crypto Mastercard Set to Be Unwrapped This Summer.










						Gemini’s Crypto Mastercard Set to Be Unwrapped This Summer - Decrypt
					

Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, led by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is prepping a Mastercard credit card with Bitcoin rewards.




					decrypt.co
				



.


Richard


----------



## Brett (Apr 27, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> Gemini's Crypto Mastercard Set to Be Unwrapped This Summer.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



So the 'real' founders of Facebook now are jumping into crypto coins

And yet I'm still not swimming in the crypto pool  ..


----------



## VacationForever (Apr 27, 2021)

Brett said:


> So the 'real' founders of Facebook now are jumping into crypto coins
> 
> And yet I'm still not swimming in the crypto pool  ..


Me neither.


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 27, 2021)

Ethereum Hits Record Price as Potential Supply Crunch Looms.










						Ethereum Hits Record Price as Potential Supply Crunch Looms - Decrypt
					

Ethereum has rebounded from its price dip last week, once again setting a new all-time high above $2,600 per coin.




					decrypt.co
				



.


Richard


----------



## Luvtoride (Apr 28, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> Me neither.



Jump right in…the waters fine! 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## VacationForever (Apr 28, 2021)

Luvtoride said:


> Jump right in…the waters fine!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


No, thank you!   It is too speculative for my appetite.  I want to sleep well at night and I also want to continue to enjoy the good life which I already have.


----------



## Luvtoride (Apr 28, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> No, thank you!  It is too speculative for my appetite. I want to sleep well at night and I also want to continue to enjoy the good life which I already have.



LOL as we both write in the middle of the night, not being able to sleep! 

Investing in Cryptocurrency is absolutely not impacting my current lifestyle or my retirement accounts. I believe that learning about this “new” asset class and understanding the way it is and will be used in the future is critical to where the world of finance is going. As you get into it, the prospects are endless and the science is fascinating. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## VacationForever (Apr 28, 2021)

Luvtoride said:


> LOL as we both write in the middle of the night, not being able to sleep!
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I am in Hawaii this week so it was not my middle of the night.


----------



## Luvtoride (Apr 28, 2021)

Haha, good for you. I’m at Marriott’s Ocean Pointe in Singer Island, FL, on vacation. This is hopefully what retirement will be more of for both of us! 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 29, 2021)

Government and industry to combat ransomware with Bitcoin regulation.










						Government and industry to combat ransomware with Bitcoin regulation
					

Government and industry officials confronting an epidemic of ransomware are eyeing cryptocurrency regulation as a way to combat the scourge.




					venturebeat.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 29, 2021)

WILL ETHEREUM OVERTAKE BITCOIN IN 2021? HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW.










						Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2021? Here's what you need to know
					

Over the last few years, Bitcoin, the golden child of the cryptosphere, has seen wide popularity and acceptance as a store of value, while Ether – the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain – has held steady in second place.




					www.inverse.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 29, 2021)

Bitcoin, Tesla, Ethereum: When should you take profits on your biggest investing winners?










						Bitcoin, Tesla, Ethereum: When should you take profits on your biggest investing winners?
					

5 questions every investor should ask about their best performing investments.




					fortune.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 29, 2021)

$3.6 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Friday Hire's What That Means.










						$3.6 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Friday. Here's What That Means - Decrypt
					

About $3.6 billion in Bitcoin options are due to expire Friday, giving options holders their last chance to either buy or sell.




					decrypt.co
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 30, 2021)

There's more to cryptocurrency than Bitcoin: 5 other digital coins to consider.











						There's more to cryptocurrency than Bitcoin: 5 other digital coins to consider
					

Dogecoin has a superfan in Elon Musk, Ripple premined billions of XRP coins and Tether is a bridge between physical money and cryptocurrencies.




					www.techrepublic.com
				





Richard


----------



## Luvtoride (Apr 30, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> There's more to cryptocurrency than Bitcoin: 5 other digital coins to consider.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good article Richard. There are many others too. All should be learning about these cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. If not for investment purposes than at least for understanding how commerce is changing and will be quite different in the future.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Brett (May 1, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> There's more to cryptocurrency than Bitcoin: 5 other digital coins to consider.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



there are now over 5,000 cryptocurrencies in 'circulation'.  anyone can create a cryptocurrency !


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 1, 2021)

3 analysts explain why ether will surpass bitcoin as the leading cryptocurrency.










						3 analysts explain why ether will surpass bitcoin as the leading cryptocurrency
					

Mastercard and BNY Mellon warmed to bitcoin on Thursday, supporting XRP, ether and other cryptocurrencies Yuriko Nakao/Getty Images   Bitcoin ha...




					markets.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 1, 2021)

Bitcoin is following this price prediction model 'with
 astonishing precision'.










						Bitcoin is following this price prediction model ‘with astonishing precision’
					

Stock-to-flow model suggests bitcoin is still only trading at a fraction of its next major peak




					www.independent.co.uk
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 2, 2021)

No. I NFL Draft Pick Trevor Lawrence Puts His Signing Bonus in Cryptocurrencies, Estimated Worth $24 Million.










						No. 1 NFL Draft Pick Trevor Lawrence Puts His Signing Bonus in Cryptocurrencies, Estimated Worth $24 Million – Featured Bitcoin News
					

No. 1 NFL Draft Pick Trevor Lawrence has reportedly converted his entire signing bonus to cryptocurrencies via crypto firm Blockfolio. Lawrence is the top overall pick in the 2021 National Football League. His signing bonus is estimated to be around $24 million.




					news.bitcoin.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 3, 2021)

Ethereum hits $3,000 for the first time, now larger than Bank of America.










						Ethereum hits $3,000 for the first time, now larger than Bank of America
					

The Ether is out of the ether as the digital currency crosses the $3,000 mark for the first time.




					cointelegraph.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 3, 2021)

EBay CEO Hints at Crypto Payments, NFT Sales - CoinDesk.










						EBay CEO Hints at Crypto Payments, NFT Sales - CoinDesk
					

E-commerce giant eBay is looking at crypto as a payments option, CEO Jamie Iannone told CNBC Monday, though details are sparse.




					www.coindesk.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 4, 2021)

Ethereum Soars to New All-Time High Above $3,500 - Decrypt.










						Ethereum Soars to New All-Time High Above $3,500 - Decrypt
					

The price of Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has surged to hit a new all-time high above $3,500.




					decrypt.co
				



.


Richard


----------



## geekette (May 4, 2021)

Luvtoride said:


> Good article Richard. There are many others too. All should be learning about these cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. If not for investment purposes than at least for understanding how commerce is changing and will be quite different in the future.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I'll have to disagree as I don't think Everyone needs to know all about this.  I don't think it's a big deal that commerce changes over time.   People adjust without having to study for years beforehand.   There didn't used to be ecommerce, either, and I don't recall people without home computers needing to hurry up and get one to figure out ebay before it existed.    People are all over shopping from home now.    Change happens, people adapt, or stay their course (Mom still carries a checkbook and cash, has never carried a debit card and has exactly one credit card for emergencies).

Folks that have an interest can dive right in and read up and invest and so forth.  But since I have no horse in that race, nor plan to enter it, I'll keep on my merry way of barely being a consumer with zero concerns to overnight nullification of my cash and credit.   It's simply not interesting to me so I'll spend my time on things that do interest me.   I am an investor, but not in currency of any kind.   not my thing, won't be my thing.    

I do still wish for success for those that are trying to stay on top of it all and rolling money in.   May you roll more money out!


----------



## geekette (May 4, 2021)

VacationForever said:


> No, thank you!   It is too speculative for my appetite.  I want to sleep well at night and I also want to continue to enjoy the good life which I already have.


There is much to be said for staying in your lane.


----------



## Brett (May 4, 2021)

geekette said:


> I'll have to disagree as I don't think Everyone needs to know all about this.  I don't think it's a big deal that commerce changes over time.   People adjust without having to study for years beforehand.   There didn't used to be ecommerce, either, and I don't recall people without home computers needing to hurry up and get one to figure out ebay before it existed.    People are all over shopping from home now.    Change happens, people adapt, or stay their course (Mom still carries a checkbook and cash, has never carried a debit card and has exactly one credit card for emergencies).
> 
> Folks that have an interest can dive right in and read up and invest and so forth.  But since I have no horse in that race, nor plan to enter it, I'll keep on my merry way of barely being a consumer with zero concerns to overnight nullification of my cash and credit.   It's simply not interesting to me so I'll spend my time on things that do interest me.   I am an investor, but not in currency of any kind.   not my thing, won't be my thing.
> 
> I do still wish for success for those that are trying to stay on top of it all and rolling money in.   May you roll more money out!



yes for cryptocurrency 
but blockchain technology is increasingly being used in commercial applications


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 5, 2021)

How To Earn Free Bitcoin On All Your Purchases Instead Of Cash Back.










						How To Earn Free Bitcoin On All Your Purchases Instead Of Cash Back
					

There's an easier, less stressful way to invest in cryptocurrency: accumulate free Bitcoin on every credit card purchase. Here's how.




					wealthgang.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 5, 2021)

Ethereum price prediction: Ethereum reached $3,500, starts to consolidate in preparation for a
 retracement?










						Ethereum price prediction: Ethereum reached $3,500, starts to consolidate in preparation for a retracement? | Cryptopolitan
					

Today’s Ethereum price prediction is bearish as the previous bullish market momentum has slowed down, indicating exhaustion.




					www.cryptopolitan.com
				





Richard


----------



## Brett (May 5, 2021)

Tiger King's Carole Baskin is starting her own bitcoin cryptocurrency

every celebrity will eventually have a crypto coin !

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/05/entertainment/*tiger-king-carole-baskin-crypto-coin*/index.html

*'Tiger King' star Carole Baskin launches cat-themed crypto coin*


----------



## Icc5 (May 5, 2021)

I'll stay fully invested and live off pension,social security,dividends, municipal bonds and in another 2 years have to take from my IRA.  While doing this I also have money sitting at almost no interest so if/when the market drops I can invest even more.  House has been paid off for years.  In the meantime we will keep cruising,timesharing and enjoying our vacations.  No problem for us even if the market collapsed and I've tried covering all basis for years.
Along with everything else our kids and grandaughter should end up with nice inheritances from us.  Hopefully they all will be doing well and this will just make living easier on them and they can enjoy life as we have.


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 6, 2021)

This crypto claims to solve bitcoin's biggest problem.










						This crypto claims to solve bitcoin's biggest problem
					

Bitcoin may be the king of cryptocurrencies, but it's facing an environmental backlash over the energy-intensive technology underpinning it.




					www.cnn.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 6, 2021)

Dogecoin's merge mining profitability has flipped Litecoin by over 200%










						Dogecoin's merge mining profitability has flipped Litecoin by over 200%
					

With the recent price rally, Dogecoin's block rewards may no longer be considered as byproducts of merge mining on Litecoin




					www.theblockcrypto.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 6, 2021)

5 Tax Tips Every Cryptocurrency Investor Needs to Know Now.










						5 Tax Tips Every Cryptocurrency Investor Needs to Know Now
					

Growing interest and investment in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can create tax-reporting challenges for entrepreneurs and small investors. But you can avoid unnecessary taxes and get tax benefits by taking proper steps.




					www.entrepreneur.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 8, 2021)

Understanding Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum And Future of Cryptocurrency.




			Understanding Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum And Future of Cryptocurrency
		

.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 8, 2021)

Cryptocurrency is coming to Vegas: Heres what you need to know.










						Cryptocurrency is coming to Vegas: Here’s what you need to know - The Points Guy
					

Cryptocurrencies are headed to Vegas. On Thursday, Resorts World Las Vegas announced a partnership with Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange and custodian. The




					thepointsguy.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Brett (May 8, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> This crypto claims to solve bitcoin's biggest problem.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





MULTIZ321 said:


> This crypto claims to solve bitcoin's biggest problem.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





MULTIZ321 said:


> This crypto claims to solve bitcoin's biggest problem.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





MULTIZ321 said:


> This crypto claims to solve bitcoin's biggest problem.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





MULTIZ321 said:


> This crypto claims to solve bitcoin's biggest problem.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





MULTIZ321 said:


> Ethereum price prediction: Ethereum reached $3,500, starts to consolidate in preparation for a
> retracement?
> 
> 
> ...





MULTIZ321 said:


> This crypto claims to solve bitcoin's biggest problem.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




note:  cryptocurrency is *not* the stock market


----------



## PigsDad (May 8, 2021)

Brett said:


> note:  cryptocurrency is *not* the stock market


Correct.  Perhaps someone needs to start a new thread dedicated to cryptocurrency.  Or just rename this thread since for the last several pages, every post has been regarding cryptocurrency.

Kurt


----------



## GetawaysRus (May 11, 2021)

This fellow publishes a weekly stock market commentary that I've been following for several months. He can get technical at times, but this week's issue is easy to read.









						Technically Speaking: If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?
					

"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?" As a "contrarian" investor, it is usually when "everyone" is talking about an event; it doesn't happen.




					realinvestmentadvice.com


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (May 19, 2021)

HitchHiker71 said:


> You’re conflating the problems experienced ten years ago with one of the first cryptocurrencies that did not yet have the auditing capabilities built into the blockchain like modern gen2/gen3 cryptocurrencies that have these functions inbuilt to their blockchains.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Crypto's are down 20-40 percent in the last 24 hours. That is <not> a store of value. More like a crapshoot. . .


----------



## Ironwood (May 19, 2021)

Today's activity is a heads up!  The party is over....perhaps until late fall!


----------



## bogey21 (May 19, 2021)

Ironwood said:


> Today's activity is a heads up!  The party is over....perhaps until late fall!


I bought a small amount of Ethereum this morning via the Grayscale Ethereum Trust when Ethereum hit $2,440.  Not really a major investment but rather a small quantity just to maintain my interest...

George


----------



## ccwu (May 19, 2021)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Crypto's are down 20-40 percent in the last 24 hours. That is  a store of value. More like a crapshoot. . .



Agree. The currencies usually are backed by government. US currencies issued by US treasury and backed by US government. Wonder what value or asset backed crypto. Just the faith? No wonder Chinese government ban crypto for any institutional investment. I personally think any one can invent a coin out from thin air and set it to speculate. It is a BIG scam. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jun 1, 2021)

Why Wait? Get Paid Dividends Every Month (Or Week)










						Why Wait? Get Paid Dividends Every Month (Or Week)
					

Investors can't control that S&P 500 dividends are shrinking. But they at least control a bit in how often they get paid with ETFs.




					www.investors.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## bogey21 (Jun 1, 2021)

I just bought a small amount of PAXG at paxos.com.  It runs on the Ethereum blockchain.  The G in the symbol stands for gold and one's investment is backed by gold in a London vault.  It seems perfect for someone who wants to own gold but is not currently interested in physical gold.  A nice feature is that you have the right to ask for physical delivery of your gold if you later change your mind.  I bought a small amount as a learning experience believing that you never really understand something until you put a few dollars at risk and monitor it...

George

PS For those who are aware of my effort to own no physical assets at my demise let me point out that this foray is in my Son's name...


----------



## tombanjo (Jun 1, 2021)

*Redeem* for Physical: You may *redeem* for a Physical *gold* bar by initiating a sell request through the Paxos wallet dashboard on the PAX *Gold* page. For *redemption* of *PAXG* into *Gold* Bars, you *will* need to have a minimum of 430 *PAXG* plus fees given that London Good Delivery *gold* bars range from 370-430oz 

At current price, that is a minimum investment of $819,580

They charge for the stamps they stick on the bar to mail it to you too.


----------



## bogey21 (Jun 1, 2021)

tombanjo said:


> At current price, *that is a minimum investment of $819,580*



I guess I have a way to go as I opened the account with only a couple thousand dollars.  I don't know about the stamps but they did charge me $5 to transfer money from my Bank into my Account.  But cut me some slack.   Remember I said that I opened the account to learn how the whole thing works...

George


----------



## tombanjo (Jun 1, 2021)

I am joking a bit, but the fine print makes the sizzle of "convert to actual gold" a bit tarnished. They do try and tout their low fees, though for low volumes it is 2% coming and going. If they really really REALLY have instant conversions, people can take advantage of swings, but you need to be in the big boy groups to really lower the fees to take advantage of that.


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jun 8, 2021)

Don't Miss These 12 Dividend Stocks That Pay Monthly Dividends.










						Don't Miss These 12 Dividend Stocks That Pay Monthly Dividends | Benzinga
					

By, Bob Ciura  Most dividend stocks made payments to shareholders on a quarterly basis. But not all companies pay quarter...




					www.benzinga.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Brett (Jun 9, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> Don't Miss These 12 Dividend Stocks That Pay Monthly Dividends.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



yes, REIT's can pay good monthly dividends

But they can also suddenly drop in value and stay down !


----------



## Brett (Aug 14, 2021)

Dow and S&P 500 close at record levels


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u...it-for-weekly-jobless-claims-data-11628762454


----------



## ccwu (Aug 14, 2021)

Brett said:


> yes, REIT's can pay good monthly dividends
> 
> But they can also suddenly drop in value and stay down !
> 
> ...



The REIT dropped during pandemic was because the federal moratorium let renters stay and not paying rent. The landlord can skip and lengthen the mortgage payment. I had a big lost at the time, but instead of panic, I bought double or triple the REIT. I treat it as annuity. They still paying good dividend. So just ignore the principle price drop and continue collecting the dividend. Now the REIT triple last years price. I am collecting a few thousand dollar dividends plus enjoy the price triple. When the moratorium lift, the REIT should be good. They usually don’t fluctuate before the pandemic. My investment is rated most aggressive. I use REIT as a cushion to the fluctuation of market in the past. They are one of my favorite. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Brett (Aug 15, 2021)

ccwu said:


> The REIT dropped during pandemic was because the federal moratorium let renters stay and not paying rent. The landlord can skip and lengthen the mortgage payment. I had a big lost at the time, but instead of panic, I bought double or triple the REIT. I treat it as annuity. They still paying good dividend. So just ignore the principle price drop and continue collecting the dividend. Now the REIT triple last years price. I am collecting a few thousand dollar dividends plus enjoy the price triple. When the moratorium lift, the REIT should be good. They usually don’t fluctuate before the pandemic. My investment is rated most aggressive. I use REIT as a cushion to the fluctuation of market in the past. They are one of my favorite.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Residential REITs did better last year than those holding commercial property.   I also use REIT's for the dividends and diversification

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortgages-real-estate/10/real-estate-investment-trust-reit.asp


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Aug 17, 2021)

11 Stocks More Than Double Your Money The
 Fastest.










						11 Stocks More Than Double Your Money The Fastest
					

You just doubled your money on S&P 500 stocks from the Covid-19 rally. That's great — but it's nothing compared to some stocks.




					www.investors.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Brett (Aug 17, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> 11 Stocks More Than Double Your Money The
> Fastest.
> 
> 
> ...




_"11 S&P 500 companies including health care leader Moderna (MRNA) plus consumer discretionary plays Caesars Entertainment (CZR) and Tesla (TSLA), jumped more than 400% from the 2020 low. If you held $10,000 of Moderna at the bottom, it would be worth $140,708, or 1,307%, more now."_

not sure these _*hot*_ stocks are going to keep doubling in value


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Aug 20, 2021)

5 High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Must-Buys
 Right Now.










						5 High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Must-Buys Right Now
					

Wall Street has entered a troublesome stretch and an array of factors are impacting the market. Thus, it's wise to invest in dividend players like Vector Group (VGR) & Redwood Trust (RWT) now.




					www.zacks.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Brett (Aug 21, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> 5 High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Must-Buys
> Right Now.
> 
> 
> ...



sorry,  those actively managed investment funds are not a  "must buy" for me  .... they are still down over 10 years !


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Sep 22, 2021)

Hedge Funds Dump Stocks: Move to These 5 Big
 Dividend Winners Now.










						Hedge Funds Dump Stocks: Move to These 5 Big Dividend Winners Now – 24/7 Wall St.
					

Hedge fund managers are getting more defensive, and it is probably high-time individual investors do as well. These five stocks come with reliable dividends, are not overextended and are rated Buy at major Wall Street firms. They look like great picks for the rest of 2021 and beyond.




					247wallst.com
				





Richard


----------



## bogey21 (Sep 22, 2021)

Sold my shares of Grayscale Ethereum Trust at a profit and bought more PaxG (gold) a couple days ago.  I see Ethereum declining in the near term and believe gold is near a low.  This sure beats going to a casino...

George

PS - Just bought some Cardano.  I think it is the next Ethereum...


----------



## pedro47 (Sep 23, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> 5 Tax Tips Every Cryptocurrency Investor Needs to Know Now.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Wow! very interesting.


----------



## pedro47 (Sep 23, 2021)

MULTIZ321 said:


> Hedge Funds Dump Stocks: Move to These 5 Big
> Dividend Winners Now.
> 
> 
> ...


This is an excellent stock moved.


----------



## Brett (Sep 25, 2021)

bogey21 said:


> Sold my shares of Grayscale Ethereum Trust at a profit and bought more PaxG (gold) a couple days ago.  I see Ethereum declining in the near term and believe gold is near a low.  This sure beats going to a casino...
> 
> George
> 
> PS - Just bought some Cardano.  I think it is the next Ethereum...



SEC Chairman Doesn’t See Long Term Viability for Cryptocurrencies

https://sports.yahoo.com/sec-chairman-doesn-t-see-023447389.html

"The Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) says he doesn’t see cryptocurrencies lasting long.
At a virtual event hosted by the Washington Post, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler compared cryptocurrencies to past financial movements. He said the thousands of digital currencies are like the so-called wildcat banking era of 1837-63 in the U.S.. During this time in history there was no federal bank regulation and banks sometimes issued their own currencies.


----------



## bogey21 (Sep 25, 2021)

Brett said:


> The Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) says he doesn’t see cryptocurrencies lasting long.
> At a virtual event hosted by the Washington Post, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler compared cryptocurrencies to past financial movements. He said the thousands of digital currencies are like the so-called wildcat banking era of 1837-63 in the U.S.. During this time in history there was no federal bank regulation and banks sometimes issued their own currencies.



Pretty much agree with what he says.  There are many (maybe most) cryptos that are and will always be worth less than penny stocks.  These will more than likely disappear.  On the other hand there are a number that will survive and thrive....

George


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Sep 26, 2021)

I'm a financial planner, and there are 3 investing mistakes I wish people would stop making.









						I'm a financial planner, and there are 3 investing mistakes I wish people would stop making
					

Financial planner Chloe A. Moore says clients often get into investing without having the basics covered first, like a 401(k) and an emergency fund.




					www.businessinsider.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Sep 29, 2021)

Interest Rates Are Rising Fast: Buy These 5 Big
 Dividend-Paying Banks Now.










						Interest Rates Are Rising Fast: Buy These 5 Big Dividend-Paying Banks Now – 24/7 Wall St.
					

With the prospect for rising interest rates, Jefferies is positive on the banking industry and has five top dividend-paying stocks rated Buy that are really value plays when compared to the very overbought and pricey stocks market as a whole.




					247wallst.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Oct 21, 2021)

7 Best ETFs for Rising Interest Rates : Kiplinger.










						7 Best ETFs for Rising Interest Rates | Kiplinger
					

Investors have plenty of tools to combat higher bond yields. Here are seven of the best ETFs to head off interest-rate risk.



					www.kiplinger.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Brett (Oct 22, 2021)

S&P 500 Hits Record High Amid Upbeat Earnings
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergei...pbeat-third-quarter-earnings/?sh=29c4668f17e6


----------



## Brett (Dec 24, 2021)

Another record year for the stock market  --  when will it end


----------



## pedro47 (Dec 24, 2021)

The official stock market for the year ends 12/31/2021 @ 4:00PM.


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Dec 30, 2021)

4 Top REITS to Buy Before the New Year










						4 Top REITs to Buy Before the New Year
					

The ongoing economic recovery has benefited real estate investment trusts (REITs) because the value of their underlying real estate assets has increased. And while the expected increase in interest rates...




					www.entrepreneur.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Dec 30, 2021)

5 Top-Ranked ETFs That Outperformed Wall Street
 in 2021










						5 Top-Ranked ETFs That Outperformed Wall Street in 2021
					

Let's look at some top-ranked ETFs that have outpaced the Wall Street rally this year and are up at least 40%.




					www.entrepreneur.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jan 4, 2022)

The Dangerous Investing Mistake That's on the Rise










						You Need To Avoid This Investment Mistake: It's Dangerous!
					

Money expert Clark Howard likens buying on margin to gambling. He thinks that a reckoning is coming for leveraged investors.




					clark.com
				





Richard


----------



## Luvtoride (Jan 5, 2022)

Brett said:


> Another record year for the stock market  --  when will it end


End?  I hope never.  I moved a lot of my retirement money into S&P indexed vehicles about 17 months ago.  I'm up almost 50% since then...much better than in the strategy funds much of it was in.  
Yes, there will be bumps and declines along the way, but long-term its still the place to be!  
Good luck!


----------



## PigsDad (Jan 5, 2022)

Luvtoride said:


> End?  I hope never.


In the long term, it has never ended.

Kurt


----------



## bogey21 (Jan 5, 2022)

bogey21 said:


> Sold my shares of Grayscale Ethereum Trust at a profit and bought more PaxG (gold) a couple days ago.  I see Ethereum declining in the near term and believe gold is near a low.  This sure beats going to a casino...
> 
> George
> 
> PS - Just bought some Cardano.  I think it is the next Ethereum...


PPS - Sometime back I sold the Cardano and bought Solana which I now like better


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jan 20, 2022)

Top Wall Street Strategist Says Smart Money Is 
Buying Big Dividend REITs: 5 Top Picks 










						Top Wall Street Strategist Says Smart Money Is Buying Big Dividend REITs: 5 Top Picks – 24/7 Wall St.
					

A well-respected analyst notes that real estate investment trusts are underweight by fund managers for now. Growth and income investors may want to consider these five stocks with dependable and generous distributions.




					247wallst.com
				





Richard


----------



## CO skier (Jan 27, 2022)

An interesting (and scary) chart that was published on November 9, 2021 comparing the 2000 dotcom bubble to the 2021 Covid-19 Fed induced $7 trillion bubble.  The Nasdaq 100 closed today at 14,173 after a wild ride

If 2021 rhymes with the 2000 dotcom bubble, the Nasdaq will be in a general downtrend (with a few notable bear market rallies on the way down) until 2025, and find a market bottom in the 5,000-6,000 range.


----------



## Brett (Jan 27, 2022)

Seniors May Have Too Much in Stocks

https://www.wsj.com/articles/older-...ocks-how-to-check-if-its-too-much-11643215304

A suddenly sliding stock market is sending a wake-up call to older Americans that maybe they shouldn’t invest like they used to. Many are likely to ignore that call.

Thanks to a long bull market that surprisingly rose and rose through the pandemic, plus more than a decade of low yields for bonds, older Americans have a lot of money in the stock market. Data from Fidelity Investments’ 20.4 million 401(k) investors shows that almost 40% of 401(k) investors age 60 to 69 hold about 67% or more of their portfolios in stocks. Among retail clients at Vanguard Group between ages 65 and 74, 17% have 98% or more of their portfolios in stocks.
Among retail clients at Vanguard Group between ages 65 and 74, 17% have 98% or more of their portfolios in stocks. The heavy allocation to stocks breaks with the conventional wisdom, which calls for moving from stock heavy portfolios when you are younger to a more balanced stock-andbond mix in retirement. The goal is to reduce the effects of a bear market when taking withdrawals, a combination that can deplete a nest egg. Older investors’ decision 

Rebalancing, or periodically skimming profits from winners and plowing the proceeds into losers, can help you stick to your desired stock allocation. Only about half of individual investors bother with rebalancing on a regular basis, according to Vanguard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jan 27, 2022)

The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Long Live 33/33/33. 
Kiplinger 










						The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Long Live 33/33/33.
					

A portfolio of stocks and bonds used to be the gold standard, but it just doesn’t cut it anymore. It’s time to throw some alternative investments into the mix.




					www.kiplinger.com
				





Richard


----------



## Icc5 (Jan 27, 2022)

Always have been a buy and hold person.  Have enjoyed the dividends of what I own and never dealt with gold,crypto or any of that.  Hold some bonds that I bought about 6 months ago just to diversify.  We also own our house which has been paid off for years.  The only stock I've ever sold is what we were forced to when the company we worked for was sold.  Still have my original purchase of BAC which I bought in 1970.  My portfolio is about triple what I paid for it and I've pulled out about $22,000 a year in dividends for the past 30 years or so.
Hadn't purchased any more stock for years until today I decided on 1,000 shares of Ford after I heard they probably will be the only EV truck maker for at least 2 years and they are best setup to run 2nd to Tesla in EV cars in general.  Nowadays the stock market is just a game to me as my two kids will inherit it along with the house and other finances we own.  Haven't needed to touch anything as we live pretty dam good off pensions,social security,dividends,interest and interest from tax free bonds.
Bart


----------



## TravelTime (Jan 27, 2022)

I am glad the meme stock craze might be over. It bothered me that newbies were defying financial common sense and bragging about it. Someone I know bought into a meme stock and it has gone from 28 mid last year to 2 today. It looked really good on the way up but that was short lived. I hope he sold before it lost all its value.


----------



## Brett (Jan 28, 2022)

TravelTime said:


> I am glad the meme stock craze might be over. It bothered me that newbies were defying financial common sense and bragging about it. Someone I know bought into a meme stock and it has gone from 28 mid last year to 2 today. It looked really good on the way up but that was short lived. I hope he sold before it lost all its value.



yes,  meme stocks like GameStop might be over but there's still crypto-currency


----------



## bogey21 (Jan 28, 2022)

One of the best decisions I ever made was 21 years ago when I retired.  I had the choice with my Pension to take a very large lump sum or monthly payments for the rest of my life (with half of my monthly payment for my 20 year younger ex-wife when I die).  Thank God I took the monthly payments,  Knowing me, if I had taken the lump sum, I'd be a pauper today...

George


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Feb 13, 2022)

These Are The Ten Best Performing Real Estate 
Funds 










						These Are The Ten Best Performing Real Estate Funds
					

A real estate fund is a sector fund that primarily invests in the securities issued by companies that invest in real estate projects. Such funds can directly invest in real...




					www.entrepreneur.com
				



.


Richard


----------



## Brett (Feb 23, 2022)

The stock market is now in "correction" territory
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...ment-of-troops-to-eastern-ukraine-11645524955


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Feb 23, 2022)

A bear market is coming, and with it ways to make 
money not seen in 40 years, says this strategist 










						A bear market is coming, and with it ways to make money not seen in 40 years, says this strategist
					

Our call of the day from newsletter editor Jon Wolfenbarger says the evidence is piling up for a bear market. He's got ideas on how to profit.




					www.marketwatch.com
				





Richard


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 23, 2022)

Brett said:


> The stock market is now in "correction" territory
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...ment-of-troops-to-eastern-ukraine-11645524955


A correction now and then is a good thing.  Opportunity awaits!

Kurt


----------



## CO skier (Feb 23, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> A correction now and then is a good thing.  Opportunity awaits!
> 
> Kurt


Opportunity awaits only for the market timers who sold high to raise the cash needed for the "opportunity" to reinvest at lower, maybe much lower prices.

The "buy-and-hold" investor, by definition, has only the amount of their next (comparatively very small) regular contribution to take advantage of any selloff opportunities.


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 23, 2022)

CO skier said:


> Opportunity awaits only for the market timers who sold high to raise the cash needed for the "opportunity" to reinvest at lower, maybe much lower prices.
> 
> The "buy-and-hold" investor, by definition, has only the amount of their next (comparatively very small) regular contribution to take advantage of any selloff opportunities.


I consider myself a buy-and-hold investor, but I always have some extra funds waiting for market dips.  Has worked well for me.

Kurt


----------



## CO skier (Feb 23, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> I consider myself a buy-and-hold investor, but I always have some extra funds waiting for market dips.  Has worked well for me.
> 
> Kurt


Wouldn't you have put those extra funds to work on some previous dip?  How much of a dip is enough to deploy any extra funds?  Did you take advantage of the "opportunity" two weeks ago?  Did you take advantage of the "opportunity" today, now that "the market" is in "correction territory" from the market top?

Let us all know when "opportunity" arrives!


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 23, 2022)

CO skier said:


> Wouldn't you have put those extra funds to work on some previous dip?  How much of a dip is enough to deploy any extra funds?  Did you take advantage of the "opportunity" two weeks ago?  Did you take advantage of the "opportunity" today, now that "the market" is in "correction territory" from the market top?
> 
> Let us all know when "opportunity" arrives!


I don't deploy all of my savings directly to investments with each paycheck.  And yes, I actually bought some yesterday and today, thanks for asking.  Will my guess be right?  Who knows, but I'm generally happy when putting in a little extra on local lows.

Also, if you are a strict dollar cost average investor, analysis has shown that a more volatile market is better in the long run than a steadily increasing market.

Kurt


----------



## CO skier (Feb 24, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> I don't deploy all of my savings directly to investments with each paycheck.  And yes, I actually bought some yesterday and today, thanks for asking.  Will my guess be right?  Who knows, but I'm generally happy when putting in a little extra on local lows.
> 
> Also, if you are a strict dollar cost average investor, analysis has shown that a more volatile market is better in the long run than a steadily increasing market.
> 
> Kurt


So you are a buy-and-hold investor with a little market timing on the side?

You are buying now, but you posted "opportunity awaits"?

It is all very confusing.


----------



## easyrider (Feb 24, 2022)

The way things are going I have a feeling the market is about to tank. Gold and silver prices are going up which often indicates stocks are heading down. 

Bill

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-markets-unravel-putin-launches-military-operation


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Feb 24, 2022)

What Is the Graham Number? 










						Graham Number
					

The Graham Number is a way to find the upper limit of what you should pay for a stock. Learn more about how to find the Graham Number and use it in your investing.




					www.thebalance.com
				





Richard


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 24, 2022)

CO skier said:


> So you are a buy-and-hold investor with a little market timing on the side?


Sort of, but since I am in accumulation mode, I don't try to sell on the local highs so that is why I consider myself mostly a buy-and-hold investor.  So basically just try a little market timing on the dips only.  My idea of a market timer is someone who tries to time the market on both sells and buys.



> You are buying now, but you posted "opportunity awaits"?
> 
> It is all very confusing.


I don't know where an absolute bottom will be but I just buy on larger dips.  I feel like there will be more dips coming, hence the "opportunity awaits" comment.  Of course, I could be wrong, who knows?  Not very confusing to me, at least.

Kurt


----------



## pedro47 (Feb 24, 2022)

Sound liked that Ukrainian situation is going to causes more lower prices in the stock market. IMHO.


----------



## easyrider (Feb 24, 2022)

pedro47 said:


> Sound liked that Ukrainian situation is going to causes more lower prices in the stock market. IMHO.



I was up early watching the futures tank. I bet you are right. 

Bill


----------



## Tia (Feb 24, 2022)

The headlines I see are 'Russia launches  full-scale war against Ukraine'



pedro47 said:


> Sound liked that Ukrainian situation is going to causes more lower prices in the stock market. IMHO.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Feb 24, 2022)

Sold my short NASDAQ EFT yesterday. I'm waiting for the next bounce up to re-establish my short position. Holding my dividend stocks -  they were bought for cashflow. Dividend is secure for the next few years, anyways.


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 25, 2022)

Warren Buffett has warned against hoarding cash, gold, or bitcoin during wars — and touted stocks as the safest long-term bet
					

The billionaire investor said he'd buy stocks even if World War III were coming and noted that the value of money typically falls during conflicts.




					markets.businessinsider.com
				




Kurt


----------



## easyrider (Feb 25, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> Warren Buffett has warned against hoarding cash, gold, or bitcoin during wars — and touted stocks as the safest long-term bet
> 
> 
> The billionaire investor said he'd buy stocks even if World War III were coming and noted that the value of money typically falls during conflicts.
> ...



That is interesting. I would be wary of crypto's because of the possibility of government sponsored hacking. Dollars seem to do ok in times of war because it is the world currency for now anyway. The problem with dollars is inflation. Gold prices do well in times of war. Back in the Iran conflict gold went up over 125% in value so there could be an upside with gold again. Gold has started moving up. US stocks often loose value in war times. This war could cause stocks to loose value faster and longer because of other weaknesses in the world economy or maybe the fed will be able to balance and print and keep equities rising. 

Warren says to stay invested in businesses but many businesses are having problems globally. Could Warren be wrong ? 

Bill


----------



## bogey21 (Feb 25, 2022)

easyrider said:


> That is interesting. I would be wary of crypto's because of the possibility of government sponsored hacking. Dollars seem to do ok in times of war because it is the world currency for now anyway. The problem with dollars is inflation.



I cleaned out my small investment portfolio a while back including a small foray into crypto.  I gave my Son about $40k of gold and silver coins to put in his larger gun safe and just put a small amount back into crypto by buying shares in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.  It is like a closed end mutual fund that holds only Bitcoin.  What I like is that it sells at a 25% discount to spot Bitcoin...

George


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 25, 2022)

easyrider said:


> Could Warren be wrong ?


He could be, but how many people do you know that have gotten rich going against Warren's advice?

Kurt


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Feb 25, 2022)

Buffet is in the situation where he can't sell. If he unloaded his portfolio, it would cause a bear market all by itself.

There are advantages for being small.


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 25, 2022)

nm


----------



## easyrider (Feb 25, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> He could be, but how many people do you know that have gotten rich going against Warren's advice?
> 
> Kurt



Warren's investments could loose 50% of their value and he would still be in the top 5 of wealthiest people in the USA. When everyday people are older and loose 50% value of their investments they would need to play the long run scenario which is proven to work if there is enough time. So if you have more time than money it makes sense to stay invested, imo. If you have more money than time it might not, imo. 

Bill


----------



## Talent312 (Feb 25, 2022)

With all the death and destruction, I hate to say it, but...
Six months from now, Ukraine will be in the rear view mirror.
We'll have said our good-byes, and moved on to the next crisis.
And yes, the market will be higher.


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 25, 2022)

easyrider said:


> Warren's investments could loose 50% of their value and he would still be in the top 5 of wealthiest people in the USA. When everyday people are older and loose 50% value of their investments they would need to play the long run scenario which is proven to work if there is enough time. So if you have more time than money it makes sense to stay invested, imo. If you have more money than time it might not, imo.


Yes, as one gets older it is probably a good plan to be more conservative in your investments, but not sure why any of that pertained to the question about going against Warren's advice.     And what does Warren's age have to do with whether or not his investing advice is sound?  Very confusing.

Now, if you think moving investments to Gold or other commodities are considered "safer" (as you seemed to indicate in your earlier post, unless I was reading it wrong), well then I strongly disagree.

Kurt


----------



## easyrider (Feb 25, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> Yes, as one gets older it is probably a good plan to be more conservative in your investments, but not sure why any of that pertained to the question about going against Warren's advice.     And what does Warren's age have to do with whether or not his investing advice is sound?  Very confusing.
> 
> Now, if you think moving investments to Gold or other commodities are considered "safer" (as you seemed to indicate in your earlier post, unless I was reading it wrong), well then I strongly disagree.
> 
> Kurt



Warren is in it for the long run and if he lost half his portfolio value it wouldn't change his lifestyle. Most investors would have to make changes in their lifestyle if they loose even 10% of their portfolio value at retirement age. 

Precious metals are safer but they are not an investment. I wonder why you think they are. 

Bill


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 25, 2022)

easyrider said:


> Warren is in it for the long run and if he lost half his portfolio value it wouldn't change his lifestyle.


Warren invests for his fund, not himself.  He is well aware that the buyers of his fund are his customers -- do you honestly believe he would be ok with his fund dropping 50%?  He would be perfectly fine taking a hit like that for his personal investments, but his personal situation does not drive his investment decisions for his fund.  I wonder why you would think that.



> Most investors would have to make changes in their lifestyle if they loose even 10% of their portfolio value at retirement age.


Certainly, like I said earlier, of course everyone should change their investment mix as they get closer to retirement.  But again, what does that have anything to do with Warren's current *market advice*?  Do you think that I was saying everyone should invest 100% of their investments in the market or even in his fund?  His advice is not appropriate for an overall retiree's portfolio -- what I was saying (going back to my original post that you replied to) is that I don't know many people who have gotten rich going against his *market advice*.

Hopefully, that is a little more clear.

Kurt


----------



## easyrider (Feb 25, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> Warren invests for his fund, not himself.  He is well aware that the buyers of his fund are his customers -- do you honestly believe he would be ok with his fund dropping 50%?  He would be perfectly fine taking a hit like that for his personal investments, but his personal situation does not drive his investment decisions for his fund.  I wonder why you would think that.
> 
> 
> Certainly, like I said earlier, of course everyone should change their investment mix as they get closer to retirement.  But again, what does that have anything to do with Warren's current *market *advice?  Do you think that I was saying everyone should invest 100% of their investments in the market or even in his fund?  Again, very confused.
> ...



I said Warren could loose half his portfolio and still be rich. Do you think otherwise ? I never even implied all of the silly things you are posting. 

Warren's market advice from your linked articles basically says to ride it out. What do you think the article says ?

Bill


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 25, 2022)

easyrider said:


> I said Warren could loose half his portfolio and still be rich. Do you think otherwise ? I never even implied all of the silly things you are posting.


So why, when replying to my remark about how I think going against Warren's advice is a bad idea, did you reply with:

"Warren's investments could loose 50% of their value and he would still be in the top 5 of wealthiest people in the USA. When everyday people are older and loose 50% value of their investments they would need to play the long run scenario which is proven to work if there is enough time."​
What did that statement have to do with going against Warren's advice?  Or did you just purposefully take a left turn in the conversation to throw people off?

Ok, I give up, you win (whatever point you think you were trying to make).  Continuing this line of thought is pointless to me.

Kurt


----------



## easyrider (Feb 25, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> So why, when replying to my remark about how I think going against Warren's advice is a bad idea, did you reply with:
> 
> "Warren's investments could loose 50% of their value and he would still be in the top 5 of wealthiest people in the USA. When everyday people are older and loose 50% value of their investments they would need to play the long run scenario which is proven to work if there is enough time."​
> What did that statement have to do with going against Warren's advice?  Or did you just purposefully take a left turn in the conversation to throw people off?
> ...



Do you really think Warren's advice applies to everyone ? I don't.  At some point a person should adjust to a lower risk portfolio, imo. The number I used is just random to illustrate that Warren is not an average person with average wealth and that a person like him can afford to loose a good portion of his portfolio where an every day man can't. I thought this point was obvious. 

Bill


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 25, 2022)

easyrider said:


> Do you really think Warren's advice applies to everyone ?


Please point out where I said that Warren's advice applies to everyone.

Please, I'll wait.

Kurt


----------



## easyrider (Feb 25, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> Please point out where I said that Warren's advice applies to everyone.
> 
> Please, I'll wait.
> 
> Kurt



You will be waiting forever.

Bill


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 25, 2022)

easyrider said:


> You will be waiting forever.


That's what I thought.  Just another one of your nonsense posts.

Kurt


----------



## easyrider (Feb 25, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> That's what I thought.  Just another one of your nonsense posts.
> 
> Kurt



Boy oh boy, you certainly waited a long time to get that off your chest. If you didn't want to talk about Warren why did you post the link ? Is it that the recent escalation of hostilities with Russia and China, along with a historically large world debt bubble have you worried about your paper investments ? Don't worry, just keep doing what Warren and Charlie do and things will be fine if your on that path already. 

Bill


----------



## PigsDad (Feb 26, 2022)

easyrider said:


> Boy oh boy, you certainly waited a long time to get that off your chest.


You were actually waiting for me to reply?      Sorry to disappoint, I have a life outside of this board, but thanks for the laugh!  Now go back to promoting some wackadoodle conspiracy theory over on the Covid forum -- at least there you provide some entertainment.

Kurt


----------



## easyrider (Feb 26, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> I have a life outside of this board



So do I but is only 8 degrees out.

Bill


----------



## easyrider (Feb 28, 2022)

Interesting is some investors watch market patterns and notice that some of the signals in market movement repeat. One pattern is the 55 day rule to predict market downturns. While this doesn't always predict the exact date of a down turn a couple notable down turns have been at the 55 day mark or with in the 55 day mark of a market high. Tomorrow is one of those days that is exactly 55 days out from a market high on Jan 4 meaning Feb 28 is 55 days. 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...tock-market-amid-ukraine-invasion-01645716759

*Market Insight: The 55-day rule*
_*Most people don’t realize that the Crash of 1929 and the Crash of 1987 both occurred exactly 55 calendar days after the stock market had topped. All prices in this article are closing prices on the day being referenced.

1929: The peak in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.51% was reached on Sept. 3, when it closed at 381.17, and 55 calendar days after Sept. 3 was (Monday) 
Oct. 28. That was the exact date of the Crash of 1929, with the Dow down 40.58 points, or 13.5%.

1987: The Dow topped out at 2722.42 on Aug. 25, and 55 calendar days later was (Monday) Oct. 19 when the Dow collapsed 507.99 points, or 22.6% in one day!
This year, the Dow topped out on Jan. 4. And 55 days later is Monday (!) Feb. 28.*_

*In both 1929 and 1987, there was a sharp market decline in the week preceding the Crash, so that is something else to watch for. These Crashes just didn’t appear out of thin air.*


----------



## PigsDad (Mar 2, 2022)

What a wild ride the last several days, right?!?

Kurt


----------



## Brett (Mar 3, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> What a wild ride the last several days, right?!?
> 
> Kurt



right, there's volatility in the stock market.  
I'm just riding it out.   Got plenty in fixed income - bonds, CD's, etc


----------



## bogey21 (Mar 3, 2022)

Back when I ran a large S&L we had one branch in an area populated with super Seniors (ages 75-90).  At the time they all lived off their CD portfolios which at the time paid between 6% and 7½%.  I've always wondered how they managed during the last 5-10 years or so...

George


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 3, 2022)

I started investing our excess cash in a new account with Fidelity called the tax managed account (TMA). The goal is to match the market returns while producing tax harvesting “losses” to offset income. I was skeptical about this but it seems to work. The “losses” are called tax harvesting and they are paper losses from the way Fidelity trades in the account. Before we had this excess cash in mutual funds and we were paying taxes on earnings within the mutual funds even though we never sold any. In the last 4 months of 2021 (when we started this strategy), the tax harvesting came out to $26,000. That is a huge tax savings for us in just 4 months. I just moved a bunch more of our cash funds into the TMA. I am guessing the tax harvesting will be about $100,000 this year and the account with grow or recede depending on how the market does. But this is exactly what would have happened with the mutual funds but we would have paid taxes on sales vs having tax harvesting on sales.


----------



## Brett (Mar 4, 2022)

TravelTime said:


> I started investing our excess cash in a new account with Fidelity called the tax managed account (TMA). The goal is to match the market returns while producing tax harvesting “losses” to offset income. I was skeptical about this but it seems to work. The “losses” are called tax harvesting and they are paper losses from the way Fidelity trades in the account. Before we had this excess cash in mutual funds and we were paying taxes on earnings within the mutual funds even though we never sold any. In the last 4 months of 2021 (when we started this strategy), the tax harvesting came out to $26,000. That is a huge tax savings for us in just 4 months. I just moved a bunch more of our cash funds into the TMA. I am guessing the tax harvesting will be about $100,000 this year and the account with grow or recede depending on how the market does. But this is exactly what would have happened with the mutual funds but we would have paid taxes on sales vs having tax harvesting on sales.



I'm skeptical of a mutual fund that is primarily for "tax loss harvesting" -- passive index funds are already tax efficient (if you don't sell)


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 4, 2022)

Brett said:


> I'm skeptical of a mutual fund that is primarily for "tax loss harvesting" -- passive index funds are already tax efficient (if you don't sell)



Well, I will see how it does over time. The goal is not only to be tax efficient. The goal is to trade in such a way as to generate tax loss harvesting to have losses to deduct against income. In the past, even with tax efficient mutual funds, we were paying taxes on the trades within the mutual funds. That amounted to tens of thousands of dollars every year that we had to record as income even though we never sold any mutual funds. These mutual funds were investments outside of our retirement accounts. 

The new account is more like a tax efficient ETF. It is called a tax managed US equity index fund. All the stocks are outside of mutual funds but it acts like an index fund or tax efficient ETF that matches the market plus generating tax loss harvesting. I had never heard of this until my financial adviser told me. The fee is lower than we were paying on mutual funds. Maybe it will not be great but it is worth a year or two to see. If it ends up losing against the market, I will consider a tax efficient ETF. For investments outside of retirement funds, ETFs are more tax efficient than mutual funds.









						What Is the Difference Between an ETF and a Mutual Fund?
					

Both mutual funds and ETFs hold portfolios of stocks and/or bonds. However, if you are considering an ETF or mutual fund, you'll need to know the differences between the two.




					www.investopedia.com
				









						Fidelity Tax-Managed US Equity Index Strategy | Fidelity
					

Fidelity Tax-Managed US Equity Index Strategy is a separately managed account (SMA) that seeks to pursue the long-term growth potential of US large-cap stocks and deliver enhanced after-tax returns.



					www.fidelity.com


----------



## PigsDad (Mar 4, 2022)

TravelTime said:


> Well, I will see how it does over time. The goal is not only to be tax efficient. The goal is to trade in such a way as to generate tax loss harvesting to have losses to deduct against income. In the past, even with tax efficient mutual funds, we were paying taxes on the trades within the mutual funds. That amounted to tens of thousands of dollars every year that we had to record as income even though we never sold any mutual funds. These mutual funds were investments outside of our retirement accounts.
> 
> The new account is more like a tax efficient ETF. It is called a tax managed US equity index fund. All the stocks are outside of mutual funds but it acts like an index fund or tax efficient ETF that matches the market plus generating tax loss harvesting. I had never heard of this until my financial adviser told me. The fee is lower than we were paying on mutual funds. Maybe it will not be great but it is worth a year or two to see. If it ends up losing against the market, I will consider a tax efficient ETF. For investments outside of retirement funds, ETFs are more tax efficient than mutual funds.
> 
> ...


It does look interesting.  So effectively it is creating tax losses while you own it (resulting in lowered cost basis), but you would realize the normal gains, plus the gains you got over the course of owning it that produced those losses, when it comes time to sell it.  Then those gains will be long-term gains, _and _if you never sold it and passed it on to heirs, the basis would be reset which would be a big windfall for the beneficiary.  

Kurt


----------



## pedro47 (Mar 5, 2022)

TravelTime said:


> Well, I will see how it does over time. The goal is not only to be tax efficient. The goal is to trade in such a way as to generate tax loss harvesting to have losses to deduct against income. In the past, even with tax efficient mutual funds, we were paying taxes on the trades within the mutual funds. That amounted to tens of thousands of dollars every year that we had to record as income even though we never sold any mutual funds. These mutual funds were investments outside of our retirement accounts.
> 
> The new account is more like a tax efficient ETF. It is called a tax managed US equity index fund. All the stocks are outside of mutual funds but it acts like an index fund or tax efficient ETF that matches the market plus generating tax loss harvesting. I had never heard of this until my financial adviser told me. The fee is lower than we were paying on mutual funds. Maybe it will not be great but it is worth a year or two to see. If it ends up losing against the market, I will consider a tax efficient ETF. For investments outside of retirement funds, ETFs are more tax efficient than mutual funds.
> 
> ...


Thanks for sharing your information. I totally understand what you are saying.


----------



## CO skier (Mar 7, 2022)

The Nasdaq 100 index closed in bear market territory today (down 20% from the peak in November), and erasing all the gains made in 2021.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Mar 7, 2022)

CO skier said:


> The Nasdaq 100 index closed in bear market territory today (down 20% from the peak in November), and erasing all the gains made in 2021.



My short NASDAQ 100 ETF is looking fine. . .


----------



## CO skier (Mar 8, 2022)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> My short NASDAQ 100 ETF is looking fine. . .


The 2X Inverse ETF (QID) has been a wild ride.  When QQQ bounces 10 points off the lowest intra-day level, I will close out my QID position (for a fine gain in a down market), because it does not count until a position is sold.


----------



## CO skier (Mar 8, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> I don't know where an absolute bottom will be but I just buy on larger dips.  I feel like there will be more dips coming, hence the "opportunity awaits" comment.  Of course, I could be wrong, who knows?  Not very confusing to me, at least.
> 
> Kurt


If you feel "more dips are coming" why are you (did you) buying now?  That is what is confusing.


----------



## easyrider (Mar 8, 2022)

Crypto's look like they will be hit with an executive order this week. I'm not sure what this actually does to crypto prices but government interference probably isn't good.

Bill









						Biden to order studies on regulating, issuing cryptocurrency -source
					

U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to sign a long-awaited executive order this week directing the Justice Department, Treasury and other agencies to study the legal and economic ramifications of creating a U.S. central bank digital currency, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday.




					www.reuters.com
				




*The Biden order, likely to come on Wednesday, comes amid heightened concern about the use of cryptocurrencies by Russian elites to circumvent Western sanctions that have cut Russia off from large portions of the global economy, and moves by China and other economies to create their own cryptocurrencies.*


----------



## CO skier (Mar 8, 2022)

easyrider said:


> Crypto's look like they will be hit with an executive order this week.


It will be a "nothing burger".


----------



## easyrider (Mar 8, 2022)

CO skier said:


> If you feel "more dips are coming" why are you (did you) buying now?  That is what is confusing.



Kurt's is an investor that is in it for the long haul and actually that seems to be a sound investment strategy. Traders are sitting on cash waiting for the nut and that seems to work in times like now.

Bill


----------



## easyrider (Mar 8, 2022)

CO skier said:


> It will be a "nothing burger".



What is your thought on this ? I think the only thing they can't regulate is wallet to wallet transactions but they can force coinbase to disclose transactions and identities. They could also restrict the internet lines because of National Security. That would be a cryto problem.

Bill


----------



## CO skier (Mar 8, 2022)

easyrider said:


> Kurt's is an investor that is in it for the long haul and actually that seems to be a sound investment strategy. Traders are sitting on cash waiting for the nut and that seems to work in times like now.
> 
> Bill


My comments were not directed to you for a response.


----------



## PigsDad (Mar 8, 2022)

CO skier said:


> If you feel "more dips are coming" why are you (did you) buying now?  That is what is confusing.


Simple -- because I am not an oracle.  If I had perfect knowledge of the future, I wouldn't be hanging around here, I'd be on my private island living the good life.  Still don't understand why you find that confusing.   

Kurt


----------



## CO skier (Mar 8, 2022)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> My short NASDAQ 100 ETF is looking fine. . .


And just like that, I am stopped out of my leveraged short position.


----------



## easyrider (Mar 8, 2022)

CO skier said:


> My comments were not directed to you for a response.



So what.

bill


----------



## easyrider (Mar 11, 2022)

Was anyone watching nickel ? It looks like a short squeeze. Trading was halted. I was going to get in on this but I'm unfamiliar with buying nickel and there are too many etf's so I passed. 

Bill

file:///C:/Users/easys/Downloads/TRADING%2022%20057%20NICKEL%20MARKET%20UPDATE_.pdf


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Mar 22, 2022)

8 Top Analyst 'Rock Solid' Dividend Stocks to Buy Now for Growth, Dependable Income and Safety










						8 Top Analyst ‘Rock Solid’ Dividend Stocks to Buy Now for Growth, Dependable Income and Safety – 24/7 Wall St.
					

Analysts at Jefferies have a dividend playbook for the rest of 2022. They consider these eight blue-chip stock picks in a variety of sectors to have "rock solid" dividends that are unlikely to be cut or lowered.




					247wallst.com
				





Richard


----------



## PigsDad (Mar 22, 2022)

MULTIZ321 said:


> 8 Top Analyst 'Rock Solid' Dividend Stocks to Buy Now for Growth, Dependable Income and Safety


Interesting.  I directly own shares of 6 of the 8 already.

Kurt


----------



## Brett (Mar 23, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> Interesting.  I directly own shares of 6 of the 8 already.
> 
> Kurt



And those with large cap index funds own them indirectly


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Mar 23, 2022)

The stock market hit its COVID low 2 years ago
today --- How the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fared










						The stock market hit its COVID low 2 years ago today. Here's how its performance since then stacks up.
					

Stocks stumbled in early 2022, but the S&P 500 has more than doubled since the March 23, 2020, pandemic bottom — its best 2-year rolling performance since...




					www.marketwatch.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 7, 2022)

Wells Fargo Sees a $1.5 Trillion Opportunity for
Fintech Companies; These 2 Stocks Are Set to Benefit










						Wells Fargo Sees a $1.5 Trillion Opportunity for Fintech Companies; These 2 Stocks Are Set to Benefit
					

The digital revolution has changed the world in just the last decade and a half, spawning new technologies, new ways of using technologies, and bringing old businesses...




					www.tipranks.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 8, 2022)

5 best dividend stocks you can count on in 2022










						5 best dividend stocks you can count on in 2022
					

Regular dividend increases over a long period of time and solid company fundamentals can not be beaten when it comes to dividend investing.




					finbold.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 20, 2022)

Dividend Aristocrat stocks can help you keep ahead of inflation.These 15 take top prizes for raising
payouts.










						Dividend Aristocrat stocks can help you keep ahead of inflation. These 15 take top prizes for raising payouts.
					

Companies that have raised dividends the most over the past 10 years have tended to outperform the broader market — by a lot.




					www.marketwatch.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 27, 2022)

7 Highest-Yielding 'Strong Buy' REITs Offer Huge
Dividends and Inflation Protection










						7 Highest-Yielding ‘Strong Buy’ REITs Offer Huge Dividends and Inflation Protection – 24/7 Wall St.
					

One of the best assets that most investors are underweighted on is real estate. These seven top real estate investment trust stocks are Buy-rated, pay very secure and big dividends, and act as a hedge against inflation.




					247wallst.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Apr 29, 2022)

A Guide to the 10 Most-Popular Dividend ETEs










						A Guide to the 10 Most-Popular Dividend ETFs
					

The dividend stocks tend to outperform during volatile markets and can reduce the volatility of a portfolio.




					www.zacks.com
				





Richard


----------



## Brett (Apr 30, 2022)

yesterday was stock market ugly day 

shoulda bought those house and apartment  REITs


----------



## easyrider (May 19, 2022)

Brett said:


> yesterday was stock market ugly day
> 
> shoulda bought those house and apartment  REITs
> 
> ...



What did you think of yesterday ? I saw this chart that compares this year with 1929. 

Bill


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (May 19, 2022)

DIVE! DIVE! DIVE! Rig for deep submergence. . .


----------



## Brett (May 20, 2022)

Should have bought energy stocks


WSJ 
 5/20/2022

_"energy stocks like Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips have climbed more than 40% this year"





_


----------



## MULTIZ321 (May 23, 2022)

These Are The Top 8 Stocks To Own In A Bear
Market










						These Are The Top 8 Stocks To Own In A Bear Market
					

The dreaded S&P 500 bear is nearly here. But don't think you need to hibernate.




					www.investors.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jun 4, 2022)

Biggest Opportunity Of The Year: 3 High Growth Dividend Stocks To Buy Now










						3 High Growth Dividend Stocks To Buy Now
					

The market could be on the verge of going a lot higher. Many high quality stocks are still trading at bargain prices. See 3 great buys here.




					seekingalpha.com
				




Might be behind a paywall or requirement of free registration

Richard


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 13, 2022)

Cryptos getting hammered again.

Bitcoin below 24K.


----------



## Ironwood (Jun 13, 2022)

There is little meaningful technical support until 20,000.  Peter Schiff says 'from a combined market cap of $3 trillion, cryptos are down to $1 trillion, and the loss of that last trillion will be the most painful'!


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 13, 2022)

MULTIZ321 said:


> These Are The Top 8 Stocks To Own In A Bear
> Market
> 
> 
> ...


very interesting list of stocks to own


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 13, 2022)

Brett said:


> Should have bought energy stocks
> 
> 
> WSJ
> ...


Dominion Resources have never loss one penney in a recission.


----------



## Superchief (Jun 13, 2022)

Since our members of congress are allowed to use their insider information to buy/sell stock, I wish there was a way for us to track their trading activity. A lot of them have gotten rich that way over the years. I find it maddening that I can't buy or sell stock if I know my company is getting to launch a new product, but they can do it when they know a bill will be passed that will benefit/hurt a company or industry. 

This bear market will be challenging because so many industries that typically do well are being impacted by supply and transportation issues, as well as an uncertain regulatory environment. I thought railroads would benefit, but they are also suffering from employee shortages and bad management decisions by recent management changes.


----------



## easyrider (Jun 14, 2022)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Cryptos getting hammered again.
> 
> Bitcoin below 24K.



I read crypto trading was halted today at Binance for three hours. I wonder where they end up by Friday. 

Bill


----------



## Brett (Jun 14, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Since our members of congress are allowed to use their insider information to buy/sell stock, I wish there was a way for us to track their trading activity. A lot of them have gotten rich that way over the years. I find it maddening that I can't buy or sell stock if I know my company is getting to launch a new product, but they can do it when they know a bill will be passed that will benefit/hurt a company or industry.
> 
> This bear market will be challenging because so many industries that typically do well are being impacted by supply and transportation issues, as well as an uncertain regulatory environment. I thought railroads would benefit, but they are also suffering from employee shortages and bad management decisions by recent management changes.




actually congress, senators and government employees are prohibited to trade on inside information - but some have advantages 

https://www.congressionalinstitute.org/2018/08/16/can-members-of-congress-engage-in-insider-trading/


----------



## Brett (Jun 14, 2022)

bears running down the "street"


----------



## Superchief (Jun 14, 2022)

Brett said:


> actually congress, senators and government employees are prohibited to trade on inside information - but some have advantages
> 
> https://www.congressionalinstitute.org/2018/08/16/can-members-of-congress-engage-in-insider-trading/


Evidently, they are able to work around these restrictions. Politicians' families from both parties have greatly benefited from having access to information not available to the general public. They not only can learn about upcoming legislation, but they can influence it. Evidently the previous legislation left some loopholes and a more strict bill is currently in the House waiting for approval. Many in congress get very wealthy from their investments while in office. This example is regarding Nancy Pelosi's husband, but there are also several Republicans who have done similar things. As long as they are still able to invest large sums in the market, monitoring their activity should help us make better informed investments. 








						Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul, buys Tesla stock worth $2.2M
					

On March 17, Paul Pelosi, a venture capitalist, purchased 2,500 shares of Tesla stock by exercising 25 call options at a $500 strike price




					nypost.com
				











						Fact check: Nancy Pelosi's husband's investments unrelated to Joe Biden's executive order
					

The claim that Nancy Pelosi invested $1 million in Tesla based on insider information is unsupported.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## Brett (Jun 14, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Evidently, they are able to work around these restrictions. Politicians' families from both parties have greatly benefited from having access to information not available to the general public. They not only can learn about upcoming legislation, but they can influence it. Evidently the previous legislation left some loopholes and a more strict bill is currently in the House waiting for approval. Many in congress get very wealthy from their investments while in office. This example is regarding Nancy Pelosi's husband, but there are also several Republicans who have done similar things. As long as they are still able to invest large sums in the market, monitoring their activity should help us make better informed investments.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Elon Musk didn't give Nancy Pelosi secret company inside information!   And that Tesla stock bought in March, 2022 is now worth $ ______

Congress, senators, presidents,  you, me, and Martha Stewart are all subject to same insider trading laws. The difference is members of congress, senators, etc. have to report all their stock purchases and sales.  and their spouse's stock purchases and sales.   it's  "monitoring".     You and I only report stock sales to the IRS once a year.
  Of course, many people think congress and senators and presidents and supreme court justices (and their relatives) shouldn't own any stocks.


https://www.congressionalinstitute.org/2018/08/16/can-members-of-congress-engage-in-insider-trading/


----------



## Rolltydr (Jun 14, 2022)

Brett said:


> Elon Musk didn't give Nancy Pelosi secret company inside information!   And that Tesla stock bought in March, 2022 is now worth $ ______
> 
> Congress, senators, presidents,  you, me, and Martha Stewart are all subject to same insider trading laws. The difference is members of congress, senators, etc. have to report all their stock purchases and sales.  and their spouse's stock purchases and sales.   it's  "monitoring".     You and I only report stock sales to the IRS once a year.
> Of course, many people think congress and senators and presidents and supreme court justices (and their relatives) shouldn't own any stocks.
> ...


Again, I love facts! Thank you, Brett.


----------



## PigsDad (Jun 14, 2022)

This is one of my favorite ongoing threads here on TUG, so a respectful request:  let's try to keep any hint of politics out of the discussions, so this thread does not get locked.  Some of the last few posts are borderline.

Kurt


----------



## Superchief (Jun 14, 2022)

Brett said:


> The difference is members of congress, senators, etc. have to report all their stock purchases and sales.  and their spouse's stock purchases and sales.   it's  "monitoring".     You and I only report stock sales to the IRS once a year.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.congressionalinstitute.org/2018/08/16/can-members-of-congress-engage-in-insider-trading/


Is this information available to the public similar to insider trading? It could be helpful when making investment decisions. If you can't beat them, join them.


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jun 14, 2022)

Got an IRA? Here's How to Use the Bear Market to Your Advantage










						Got an IRA? Here's How to Use the Bear Market to Your Advantage
					

You're effectively slashing your tax obligation.




					money.com
				





Richard


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Jun 15, 2022)

Anyone dollar cost averaging into the market on this dip? I just picked up some solid performers. Small amount so low risk. Will continue to dollar cost average if dips lower.

Also any ideas where to invest excess cash especially in brokerage IRAs? I am not seeing savings rates increase significantly with inflation yet.


----------



## PigsDad (Jun 15, 2022)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Anyone dollar cost averaging into the market on this dip?


Yep, I just did some additional purchases yesterday.

Kurt


----------



## PigsDad (Jun 15, 2022)

I found this interview with Bill Gates interesting.  He is not a fan of crypto or NFTs.  I tend to agree with his comments here:



			https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/bill-gates-says-crypto-and-nfts-are-based-on-greater-fool-theory.html
		


Kurt


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Jun 15, 2022)

I completely missed the crypto and NFT craze and never put any money there. In hindsight that's a good thing. 

Still holding investments in Internet and Tech. Those will come back.


----------



## DrQ (Jun 15, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> Yep, I just did some additional purchases yesterday.
> 
> Kurt


I think that's called, "Trying to catch a falling knife"

I'm going to wait until the market bottoms out.


----------



## bluehende (Jun 15, 2022)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Anyone dollar cost averaging into the market on this dip? I just picked up some solid performers. Small amount so low risk. Will continue to dollar cost average if dips lower.
> 
> Also any ideas where to invest excess cash especially in brokerage IRAs? I am not seeing savings rates increase significantly with inflation yet.


Yes.

I bought a little qqq when they were down 10%.  I doubled the buy at 20% down.  I doubled again around the last bottom.  My goal is to become overinvested again if it is down 50%.  I will start buying a little of the russell 2k etf the next time I buy also.  I am a little underinvested right now.  In my 401k I have done the same thing with their mutual funds being a little more conservative.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Jun 15, 2022)

Problem is that you never know when it is at the bottom until it is too late - and then it is like chasing a runaway train! I still work so don't have time to track the market all the time.  I like @bluehende approach. Good hedge.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 15, 2022)

DrQ said:


> I think that's called, "Trying to catch a falling knife"
> 
> I'm going to wait until the market bottoms out.


Under the W. . .


----------



## PigsDad (Jun 15, 2022)

DrQ said:


> I think that's called, "Trying to catch a falling knife"
> 
> I'm going to wait until the market bottoms out.


And how do you know when the bottom is?

Kurt


----------



## bluehende (Jun 15, 2022)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Problem is that you never know when it is at the bottom until it is too late - and then it is like chasing a runaway train! I still work so don't have time to track the market all the time.  I like @bluehende approach. Good hedge.


Like any system it has it's drawbacks.  When markets are hitting lows you look like a genius, when they are hitting highs you look foolish.  I thought I was a genius until I started feathering out in DEC 2016.  That money being out of the market cost me about 20% at the highs with a blended rate.  Now it looks smart again.  I also do not get completely out or as of 2016 completely in.  Rule of thumb for me is about 50% in stocks.  I actually believe 60%.  I never go below that although with the decline in value I am now close to that even with considerable buying.  I am still rooting for more losses so I can get more in.  I will put pretty big buys in at 35% down and 40% down.  In my mind there is no way that we not hit new highs sometime in the next decade(normal is 3 to 5 yrs) which gives a good return.  If you are young I would ignore any fluctuation and ride it.  Even this painful one.  Take it from someone who was in a big hole during 2009 2008 bear market while fully invested.


----------



## DrQ (Jun 15, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> And how do you know when the bottom is?
> 
> Kurt


With inflation predicted to be with us into 2023 and with possible stagflation, I see the waters as pretty choppy still. The market is expecting a 75 basis point increase and will probably rally on that news, but I don't really see anything encouraging.

My FA is looking for bargains in certain sectors, but for the most part, we're standing pat.

I'm still maxing out my 401k deductions just because I can't adjust those quickly. If I could, I would have suspended them and back loaded them when the market was low, but it takes 2-4 weeks to make adjustments, so I will just have to settle for $ cost averaging into conservative choices and then rebalance later.


----------



## ScoopKona (Jun 15, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> And how do you know when the bottom is?



Simple. See what the average American is doing. And do the opposite.

Are they buying stock? Buying houses using interest-only, stated-income loans? Sell.

Are they running from the markets? Buy. 

Are they dropping off their record collection at Goodwill because "records are worthless?" Buy.

Are they buying every scrap of vinyl available because "records are hot again?" Sell their old records back to them.

Are they snapping up crypto and gold? Stay away.

Are they dumping crypto and gold? Stay far away.

Are they buying fake art? Buy real art.

Buying up comic books, basketball shoes and sports memorabilia as investment vehicles? Breathe a sigh of relief and rid yourself of that non-performing, easily-ruined crap.



Most investment is driven by FOMO. By the time FOMO affects the average investor, the market has already adjusted past them. Any time I see any FOMO going on, I do the opposite of what they're doing. It's worked out fairly well for me.


----------



## DrQ (Jun 16, 2022)

MARKETS
*Dow falls 800 points, tumbling below 30,000 to the lowest level in more than a year*


			https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
		


The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled below the key 30,000 level on Thursday as investors worried the Federal Reserve’s more aggressive approach toward inflation would bring the economy into a recession.​​The Dow had rallied on Wednesday after the Fed announced its largest rate hike since 1994, but reversed those gains and then some on Thursday, tumbling to the lowest level since January 2021.​


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 16, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> And how do you know when the bottom is?
> 
> Kurt


Under the W. . .


----------



## DrQ (Jun 16, 2022)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Under the W. . .


You record is skipping - hit the needle and go to In - N - Out Burger


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 16, 2022)

DrQ said:


> You record is skipping - hit the needle and go to In - N - Out Burger


Prefer Whataburger. I'm pointing out the classic bottoming chart pattern, for those interested in knowing when the market bottom is reached. (The W patttern). Also if the Fed is squeezing then bear market will continue. It only turns bull after the Fed has started easing (which hasn't happened yet.)

Market timing 101. . .


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jun 17, 2022)

Dividend Stocks and Your Roth IRA










						Dividend Stocks and Your Roth IRA
					

You may already know that a Roth IRA is a fantastic retirement savings vehicle. But what about putting dividend stocks in a Roth IRA? Let's find out why you might want to go that route and which stocks to consider.




					www.marketbeat.com
				





Richard


----------



## Brett (Jun 17, 2022)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Prefer Whataburger. I'm pointing out the classic bottoming chart pattern, for those interested in knowing when the market bottom is reached. (The W patttern). Also if the Fed is squeezing then bear market will continue. It only turns bull after the Fed has started easing (which hasn't happened yet.)
> 
> Market timing 101. . .




Please let us know when the stock market has finally reached the "classic" W bottom  --- then we can start loading up on stocks again


----------



## Icc5 (Jun 17, 2022)

Where have I gone in the market with my buy and hold of my individual stocks?   The Dow is down 19% which is exactly where I currently sit.  I buy a mix of stocks after watching them for a long time and individually have some in many sectors but the bulk of money is in about 8 of the 20 I own because those have gained the most over the years.  Most our dividend payers which is what I really like and over the 50 or so years have kept me going over the years without panicking during bad times.
Seperately both my wife and I have our IRA'S and ROTH'S mostly in funds,money market,etc. and I try not to worry about the Ira's as they too have fallen and it is almost time for me to have to start drawing because of my age.  Luckily my wife has about 6 years for hers to recover.
In 2008 we dropped about 50% in my individual stocks but my dividends payouts increased and from my low of 2008 to now I'm just about at double and that's with me adding 4 stocks with 2 of those down from my original cost and 2 that are about double my original cost.  Don't ask me why but I usually buy 1,000 shares at a time and normally look at stocks in around the $25 per share range.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 17, 2022)

Brett said:


> Please let us know when the stock market has finally reached the "classic" W bottom  --- then we can start loading up on stocks again


I'm not a registered investment advisor.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Jun 18, 2022)

Bitcoin is now below $19,000.


----------



## DrQ (Jun 19, 2022)

*Top economist Mohamed El-Erian says the everything bubble is over. It’s a paradigm shift away from a ‘silly’ artificial economic world.*








						Top economist Mohamed El-Erian says the everything bubble is over. It’s a paradigm shift away from a ‘silly’ artificial economic world
					

'We are exiting that regime, and it’s going to be bumpy,' said the famous Fed watcher Mohamed El-Erian of the world where central banks let the money flow




					fortune.com


----------



## Brett (Jun 19, 2022)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Bitcoin is now below $19,000.



could drop below $18,000


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jun 20, 2022)

NOBL: Dividend Aristocrats ETF, Outstanding Dividend Growth Track Record, Cheap Valuation










						NOBL ETF: Outstanding Dividend Growth, Cheap Valuation
					

NOBL ETF invests in Dividend Aristocrats, stocks with decades-long track records of dividend growth. Read why I think NOBL is a investment opportunity & a buy.




					seekingalpha.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jun 25, 2022)

The Retiree's Dividend Portfolio: John's May Update: Oil Stocks Serve As Hedge Against Volatility










						Retiree's Dividend Portfolio Update: Oil As Volatility Hedge
					

John's Traditional IRA had a balance of $374.7K as of May 31. Check out how much dividend income John's retirement accounts generated for May.




					seekingalpha.com
				





Richard


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 25, 2022)

Brett said:


> Please let us know when the stock market has finally reached the "classic" W bottom  --- then we can start loading up on stocks again


Now is the time to invest in stocks, while the prices are low.


----------



## Superchief (Jun 25, 2022)

pedro47 said:


> Now is the time to invest in stocks, while the prices are low.


I don't think it has reached bottom. The rapid increase in interest rates will send the country into recession and increase federal debt. Too many people have high credit card debt and the increased rates will make it difficult for them to pay the higher gas, food, housing, and utility costs. School districts and other government agencies will also be asking for higher taxes to pay the increased costs for gas and payroll costs. I hate to see our maintenance fee increases for next year. I predict a two year recession, depending on whether government policies are changed.


----------



## VacationForever (Jun 25, 2022)

I have a "note" that matures on June 29 and will end up with a chunk of money.  Still chewing on whether to keep the money as cash or to invest in a dividend / value etf.


----------



## Rolltydr (Jun 25, 2022)

Superchief said:


> I don't think it has reached bottom. The rapid increase in interest rates will send the country into recession and increase federal debt. Too many people have high credit card debt and the increased rates will make it difficult for them to pay the higher gas, food, housing, and utility costs. School districts and other government agencies will also be asking for higher taxes to pay the increased costs for gas and payroll costs. I hate to see our maintenance fee increases for next year. I predict a two year recession, depending on whether government policies are changed.


I foresee the stock market rebounding and doubling over the next 2 years. Recession, schmecession? Unemployment is extremely low at 3.6% and wages are increasing. More people working means more people paying taxes to support schools and government agencies so they can educate our kids and take care of our poor, sick and elderly citizens. Gas prices are down here .15/gal this week. The sky is not falling.


----------



## Superchief (Jun 25, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> I foresee the stock market rebounding and doubling over the next 2 years. Recession, schmecession? Unemployment is extremely low at 3.6% and wages are increasing. More people working means more people paying taxes to support schools and government agencies so they can educate our kids and take care of our poor, sick and elderly citizens. Gas prices are down here .15/gal this week. The sky is not falling.


I guess we will see over the next two years. I hope you are right and I'm wrong but there are just too many economic issues to overcome at this time. Full employment doesn't help when expenses outpace income. A lot of successful restaurants in my area are closing because of their rapidly increasing costs and difficulty in hiring and keeping good people.


----------



## VacationForever (Jun 25, 2022)

... it's complicated.


----------



## PigsDad (Jun 25, 2022)

Superchief said:


> I don't think it has reached bottom. The rapid increase in interest rates will send the country into recession and increase federal debt. Too many people have high credit card debt and the increased rates will make it difficult for them to pay the higher gas, food, housing, and utility costs. School districts and other government agencies will also be asking for higher taxes to pay the increased costs for gas and payroll costs. I hate to see our maintenance fee increases for next year. I predict a two year recession, depending on whether government policies are changed.


The question is how much of the upcoming recession is already priced into the current stock market?  As we all know, the stock market is driven by futures, and most stock traders have been predicting an upcoming recession so the 20-30% drop (depending on the sector) we have already seen has been driven by that news.  I think a big question is how fast can we get inflation under control -- if it takes longer than the economists are currently predicting, then that will certainly have a negative pressure on the stock market.  The stock market tends to recover long before the actual recession is over.

As you mentioned, changes to government policies can certainly make a big difference -- excellent point.

Of course, if I knew all of these answers, I'd be much, much richer and I wouldn't be hanging around with all of you common folk.   

Kurt


----------



## Brett (Jun 26, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> I foresee the stock market rebounding and doubling over the next 2 years. Recession, schmecession? Unemployment is extremely low at 3.6% and wages are increasing. More people working means more people paying taxes to support schools and government agencies so they can educate our kids and take care of our poor, sick and elderly citizens. Gas prices are down here .15/gal this week. The sky is not falling.



The stock market is a reflection of future public company earnings so if employment and revenue holds then the "correction / bear" downturn could be temporary.
(or not)
But I don't think stock prices will double over the next 2 years.  maybe in the next 15 or 20 years ...


----------



## Rolltydr (Jun 26, 2022)

My post was meant to be “tongue in cheek”. I have no idea what the stock market, or the overall economy, is going to look like in 2 years. I was simply rebutting other posters who are into the gloom and doom predictions who have very strong opinions and very few facts. I simply sprinkled in a couple of facts with my uneducated opinions.


----------



## Superchief (Jun 26, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> The question is how much of the upcoming recession is already priced into the current stock market?  As we all know, the stock market is driven by futures, and most stock traders have been predicting an upcoming recession so the 20-30% drop (depending on the sector) we have already seen has been driven by that news.  I think a big question is how fast can we get inflation under control -- if it takes longer than the economists are currently predicting, then that will certainly have a negative pressure on the stock market.  The stock market tends to recover long before the actual recession is over.
> 
> As you mentioned, changes to government policies can certainly make a big difference -- excellent point.
> 
> ...


I think the stock market has been overvalued for some time because people don't have other alternatives to grow their savings safely. The gap between the interest rates we pay versus the rates we earn has never been greater. I recall during the high inflation time in the early eighties, I had CD's and GIC's earning 13-17% while my mortgage was 13.5% variable rate. CD and cash funds were only paying .5% during the last several years while credit card interest was typically 15%+ and mortgage 3-4%. It will be interesting to see how fast and how high the savings interest rates increase with the recent changes. More people will convert from stocks to safe, interest earning alternatives. 

There are a few things that are different today than in previous situations in which interest rates were utilized to curb inflation.

Federal debt is at an all-time high due to high spending for Covid and other pet government projects. It has been several administrations since we've seen any true effort to balance the budgets. The higher interest rates will increase the money needed just to pay the interest on the debt, compounding the problem.
Credit card debt is a lot higher than it was in the 80's. Middle class households are now faced with increased interest rates in addition to higher living costs. Where will this money come from? Will these households be willing to cut back on non-essentials like Doordash, streaming services, Amazon, and streaming service spending? 
The issue with product supply will still drive inflation higher on essential things because people have no alternatives. Therefore demand will not likely go down significantly enough to reduce the prices unless the supply issues are resolved. Some corporations have also increased their profit margins using supply issues as an excuse, but it will be difficult to continue to get by with this, so their profits will decline.    
Housing has reached a tipping point. Low interest rates over the last few years have resulted in the real estate market becoming overvalued in many areas. Most home buyers are more concerned with their monthly expense rather than purchase price. They will have to downsize their expectations in order to accommodate the increased interest expense. This is in direct conflict with the dramatic increase in building materials, so I expect new home sales to decline. The move to more remote workers will also significantly impact the demand for corporate offices. Vacancy rates will continue to rise in many cities, impacting local business income and tax revenue.
State, local, and property taxes continue to increase and require a greater portion of personal income. Has anyone experienced a decrease in property tax? My property taxes have doubled in the past five years and now are over $800 per month for a house below median market value. Local governments are quick to increase assessments as home values go up, but very slow to reduce them when they go down. 
No matter how you look at it, a rapid forced conversion to green energy sources creates additional inflationary pressure. Affordable and effective technology need to be available prior to forcing conversion. This impacts consumers, businesses, and government agencies. Uncertainty regarding regulatory environment and viability of the technology create uncertainty in all industries that can be impacted by these changes. I hope the government will work together to develop viable long-term and achievable plans in order to stabilize the current and future economy.


----------



## CO skier (Jun 26, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Federal debt is at an all-time high due to high spending for Covid and other pet government projects. It has been several administrations since we've seen any true effort to balance the budgets. The higher interest rates will increase the money needed just to pay the interest on the debt, compounding the problem.


No, because the debt is in US Treasuries with a fixed interest rate for the term of the instrument.  The price of the bond will decrease as interest rates rise, but the interest rate does not rise.  The money to service this debt is constant in a rising or decreasing interest rate environment.

The increasing interest rates will affect only new debt.


----------



## Superchief (Jun 27, 2022)

CO skier said:


> No, because the debt is in US Treasuries with a fixed interest rate for the term of the instrument.  The price of the bond will decrease as interest rates rise, but the interest rate does not rise.  The money to service this debt is constant in a rising or decreasing interest rate environment.
> 
> The increasing interest rates will affect only new debt.


I was referring to the new debt, since we know that spending won't decrease in the near future. The bottom line is there will likely be a significant increase in federal debt interest expenses over the next few years unless significant efforts are made to reduce spending that isn't funded by revenue. A recession will also reduce the tax revenue received.


----------



## bluehende (Jun 27, 2022)

Are we selling 30 yr bonds again.  I know W stopped selling them and went to shorter maturities to make the debt payment look better.  I will point out it is not only new debt  but also maturing debt that needs to be sold.  We are not retiring that.  If most of our debt is in short maturities we will see the effect of higher interest rates quite quickly over all our debt.


----------



## emeryjre (Jun 27, 2022)

I am a believer in the Stock Market.  I am also a believer in Business Cycles.  

The business cycle is currently pointed down because of a shortages.  This gives us inflation.

IMHO this current period of inflation is being caused by too much money chasing too few goods.

The too few goods is a function of 1.)  China shutdowns, 2.) War in Ukraine, 3.) NIMBY issues in US.  4.) Drought.  Not necessarily in that order.

As we try and transition to a different energy mix, the country is stymied by legal challenges to mining lithium and new power lines, 

The problem of sufficient energy is exacerbated by shutting down legacy electrical generation before there are "clean" replacements.

We are unable to obtain lumber because of restrictions on harvesting on Federal lands.  

Food costs will be increasing in the near future as the impact of fields not planted because of no water, trees not watered, grain locked up in war areas.

The economy will recover, but I am not a believer in a short term business cycle recovery at this point.  

Adjustments will be made over time to relieve these problems, but not in the short run.

I am following the path of shorting hard rallies and buying hard selloffs, but not putting money to work in the stock market on a long term basis.


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 27, 2022)

The only bright spot in our economy right now, the price of a gallon of gasoline is coming slowly.


----------



## emeryjre (Jun 27, 2022)

Oil prices, (using the NYMEX  Crude Oil Futures Contract) Symbol CL, was up to $120+ area in Mid June.  Then fell later in the month to around $102.  Gas prices have been following down,
Today 6/27 the August contract is back up to around 110.  I don't expect gas prices to keep falling.

China has arranged to buy all the oil that Russia will supply caused the price drop.  

Now we need to see the OPEC+ start cheating on their quotas and pump more than their allocation to keep Oil prices down.   Pray that none of the major refineries have a serious accident.


----------



## easyrider (Jun 27, 2022)

Many are predicting a monster recession is on the way within the next two years. It seems like the mid 70's all over again. In the mid 70's the market tanked and the Blue Chips led the way out. That is what will likely happen again, imo.

Bill


----------



## Brett (Jun 27, 2022)

easyrider said:


> Many are predicting a monster recession is on the way within the next two years. It seems like the mid 70's all over again. In the mid 70's the market tanked and the Blue Chips led the way out. That is what will likely happen again, imo.
> 
> Bill




Yes, there might be a "monster" recession this year or there could be "strong returns" this year

(but you've been "predicting" a "monster" stock market downturn for many years  )



June 23, 2022
*The stock market is poised for a strong 2nd half of 2022 as the US economy avoids a recession and inflation gets cut in half, JPMorgan says*
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-avoid-recession-inflation-cut-in-half-2022-6


----------



## VacationForever (Jun 27, 2022)

Brett said:


> Yes, there might be a "monster" recession this year or there could be "strong returns" this year
> 
> (but you've been "predicting" a "monster" stock market downturn for many years  )
> 
> ...


For every analyst who says stock market is going bear for another 2 years, there is another who says that it is going to recover later this year.  For anyone who guesses it right and acts on it, will be richly rewarded.


----------



## Brett (Jun 27, 2022)

VacationForever said:


> For every analyst who says stock market is going bear for another 2 years, there is another who says that it is going to recover later this year.  For anyone who guesses it right and acts on it, will be richly rewarded.



true


----------



## emeryjre (Jun 27, 2022)

If you are ready to throw in the towel on the need for people to consume, then you can plan on a major recession.  
Consumption of goods is what drives the economy.  If people are not able to get the goods they want, they will be upset and irritated at whatever the reason is for not being able to get the goods. Some how, somebody will find a way to get them the goods and assuage the irritation.


----------



## Rolltydr (Jun 27, 2022)

VacationForever said:


> For every analyst who says stock market is going bear for another 2 years, there is another who says that it is going to recover later this year.  For anyone who guesses it right and acts on it, will be richly rewarded.


In other words,


----------



## ScoopKona (Jun 27, 2022)

It's easy to separate the people who believe in the Austrian School of Economics from the rational any time markets get like this. The zealots from the von Mises "Institute" aren't just expecting the bottom to fall out of the world economy, they're praying for it. "Please god, let us go back the the gold standard and absolute monarchies. Please. Please. Please."


----------



## emeryjre (Jun 27, 2022)

ScoopKona said:


> It's easy to separate the people who believe in the Austrian School of Economics from the rational any time markets get like this. The zealots from the von Mises "Institute" aren't just expecting the bottom to fall out of the world economy, they're praying for it. "Please god, let us go back the the gold standard and absolute monarchies. Please. Please. Please."


The prayer has changed from absolute monarchies to absolute dictators.  Every thing else has stayed the same.


----------



## DrQ (Jun 28, 2022)

The thing is this: We are in an effective recession. For the last two quarters the country's economic growth has not outpaced inflation.

People are saying that we are HEADING into recession, we are already THERE.


----------



## Brett (Jun 28, 2022)

DrQ said:


> The thing is this: We are in an effective recession. For the last two quarters the country's economic growth has not outpaced inflation.
> 
> People are saying that we are HEADING into recession, we are already THERE.



OK, in the next few months we will know if the GDP has declined for several quarters and unemployment numbers start going up significantly


----------



## easyrider (Jun 28, 2022)

Brett said:


> Yes, there might be a "monster" recession this year or there could be "strong returns" this year
> 
> (but you've been "predicting" a "monster" stock market downturn for many years  )
> 
> ...



In recent years I had thought recoverable down turns, not a monster recession that takes out half the value of the market. The main reasons I think this, is that there has been an unprecedented loss of small businesses recently which will affect many goods, services and employment, cost for goods have increased dramatically and consumers are not spending. Also, many big businesses such as auto makers, home builders , banks and agriculture are having problems.

I think the last economic cycle peaked a while back but stayed viable through loose Federal Reserve open market operations and the plunge protection team. Currently the Fed is tightening the money supply, huge companies are defaulting on loans, Russia defaulted on it's foreign debt loan, hedge funds were liquidating equities and the market is down about 20% this year and we have many other supply problems which create food and energy insecurity.

If you look at actions instead of words, it looks like it will take a total reversal of many policies to change course. The path we are on looks like two plus years of decline and a declining trough for who knows how long. These thoughts are based on the conservative economic opinions that I agree with.

Brett, it seems you have a progressive economic opinion. Can you explain the reasons ?

Bill


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jun 29, 2022)

How To Read Stock Charts: Lessons From
Lululemon, Nvidia And More










						How To Read Stock Charts: Lessons From Lululemon, Nvidia And More
					

See how to read stock charts with lessons from Nvidia, Amazon, Lululemon and more.




					www.investors.com
				





Richard


----------



## emeryjre (Jun 29, 2022)

Big day for oil prices tomorrow.  Opec + meeting 

_By Myra P. Saefong MarketWatch
6/29/2022 02:46:52 PM_







Oil futures ended lower on Wednesday, pulling back after posting three consecutive gains, ahead of a meeting of key oil producers Thursday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together known as OPEC+, are expected to confirm an existing agreement to boost production in August. The loss in oil prices came despite data from the Energy Information Administration which revealed declines in U.S. crude inventories in each of the past two weeks. West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery fell $1.98, or 1.8%, to settle at $109.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


----------



## emeryjre (Jun 30, 2022)

OPEC+ announcement.  Increasing output will help keep oil prices down.  Refineries running at highest capacity levels in last 30 years.

Oil prices fall as demand destruction concerns prevail after OPEC+ pledge to boost output as expected (msn.com)


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jul 2, 2022)

5 Relatively Safe And Cheap Dividend Stocks To Invest In (July 2022)










						5 Relatively Safe And Cheap Dividend Stocks To Invest In (July 2022)
					

It's always a good idea to keep your wish list ready. How about a list of 5 cos. that are large-cap, safe, dividend-paying, and discounted? Click here.




					seekingalpha.com
				





Richard


----------



## Tia (Jul 4, 2022)

It's been 40 years since last significant oil refinery was built in USA. 1976. (Maybe this has been mentioned already? ) 

Seems people drive much more then 40 years ago . No mass transit subway/trains where i live/visit family.




emeryjre said:


> OPEC+ announcement.  Increasing output will help keep oil prices down.  Refineries running at highest capacity levels in last 30 years.
> 
> Oil prices fall as demand destruction concerns prevail after OPEC+ pledge to boost output as expected (msn.com)


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jul 4, 2022)

T'he Top Dividend Aristocrats by Yield










						The Top Dividend Aristocrats by Yield - NerdWallet
					

Dividend aristocrats are stocks that raise their dividends every year. Here’s an overview of how to invest in them.




					www.nerdwallet.com
				





Richard


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## Brett (Jul 5, 2022)

If the U.S. Is in a Recession, It’s a Very Strange One

https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-economy-unemployment-jobs-11656947596

Economic output is down but the job market is strong, unlike in previous recessions

_"Something highly unusual is happening. Economic output fell in the first quarter and signs suggest it did so again in the second. Yet the job market showed little sign of faltering during the first half of the year. The jobless rate fell from 4% last December to 3.6% in May. It is the latest strange twist in the odd trajectory of the pandemic economy, and a riddle for those contemplating a recession. If the U.S. is in or near one, it doesn’t yet look like any other on record."

"this might be a situation in which other indicators point to recession but the job market doesn’t, or it lags behind atypically for several months. “We are going to have a very unusual conflict between the employment numbers and the output numbers for a while,” 

Though corporate profits are slowing, he said, corporate profit margins are exceptionally high _


----------



## DrQ (Jul 6, 2022)

*Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again*

The closely watched Treasury yield curve is sending a warning that the economy may be falling or has already fallen into recession.
The curve between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year yield has become inverted, meaning the 2-year is now higher than the 10-year.
“There’s something afoot in investor sentiment that is difficult to ignore, given the inversion is occurring with 10-year yields below 3%,” said one bond market strategist.



			https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/05/bonds-flash-recession-warning-light-as-key-part-of-the-yield-curve-inverts-again.html


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jul 6, 2022)

DIVB: Combining Dividend And Buybacks










						DIVB: Combining Dividend And Buybacks (BATS:DIVB)
					

DIVB holds a portfolio based on dividends and buybacks. Read why valuation and quality metrics look better than the benchmark.




					seekingalpha.com
				





Richard


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 6, 2022)

Brett said:


> If the U.S. Is in a Recession, It’s a Very Strange One
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-economy-unemployment-jobs-11656947596
> 
> ...


 Employment is always a trailing indicator.


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jul 8, 2022)

Dividend payments are headed for a record this year despite a possible recession. How to play it




			https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/dividend-payments-are-headed-for-a-record-this-year-how-to-play-it.html
		



Richard


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## MULTIZ321 (Jul 8, 2022)

My Top 15 High Growth Dividend Stocks For July 2022










						My Top 15 High Growth Dividend Stocks For July 2022
					

In June, equities dropped across the board but my watchlist performed better. What are my top 15 dividend growth stocks for July? Click here to find out.




					seekingalpha.com
				





Richard


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jul 9, 2022)

Don't Be A Landlord, Buy REITs









						Don't Be A Landlord, Buy REITs
					

Being a landlord is hard work and capital intensive. There is an easier and less capital-intensive way to get great income from real estate. Read more here.




					seekingalpha.com
				





Richard


----------



## dago (Jul 9, 2022)

I was a landlord for about 20 years before I retired. The added income was great but overall, a giant PIA. I sold my rental properties when I retired cuz I didn't want the headaches anymore.  
REITS are a better alternative, but you don't get as many tax breaks as you would as a landlord, IMO. 
I do not have any REITS in my portfolio. I guess I wanted to get out of the landlord business entirely. LOL.


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Jul 11, 2022)

The 7 Highest- Yielding Dividend Kings to Buy Now and Hold Forever










						The 7 Highest-Yielding Dividend Kings to Buy Now and Hold Forever – 24/7 Wall St.
					

Investors seeking dividend dependability may be drawn to the Dividend Kings, those companies that have raised their dividends for at least 50 consecutive years. These are the seven highest-yielding Dividend Kings, and they may be the way to go for the next year or longer.




					247wallst.com
				





Richard


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## Superchief (Jul 16, 2022)

What are the Pelosi's buying? I am following investments of key members of Congress to get some tips on what stocks to buy or sell. Here are some recent major investments.








						Nancy Pelosi's husband just invested millions in 4 mega-cap tech stocks, including Apple and Amazon
					

The stock purchases come as Pelosi's wife and the House of Representatives work on anti-trust legislation designed to regulate tech monopolies.




					markets.businessinsider.com
				




Congress is currently working on a bill that includes major incentives to Intel and other chip makers. Ohio and Columbus already are providing Intel millions of dollars of tax incentives to build a plant near Columbus, but they are also looking for large federal grants. I'm in favor of encouraging more companies to expand production in the US, but how much is fair? They will make a lot of profit from these facilities and local communities will need to spend a lot to increase infrastructure and expand schools.


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## Brett (Aug 11, 2022)

The Nasdaq Composite Is Back in a Bull Market

The technology-focused index is up 20% from its low in mid-June
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-08-10-2022-11660116855


----------



## PigsDad (Aug 11, 2022)

From the same article:





It's great that we are on an upward trend, but we still have quite a ways to go to recover from the losses of this year.

Kurt


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## jabberwocky (Aug 12, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> From the same article:
> 
> View attachment 62275
> 
> ...


Yeah - we’ll just ignore that 30%+ plunge and the fact we’re still down about 20% since the start of the year…


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## Brett (Aug 12, 2022)

jabberwocky said:


> Yeah - we’ll just ignore that 30%+ plunge and the fact we’re still down about 20% since the start of the year…



maybe it's time to sell stocks and get survivalist gear


----------



## Rolltydr (Aug 12, 2022)

Brett said:


> maybe it's time to sell stocks and get survivalist gear
> 
> View attachment 62302


Apparently, you’re going to need to explain the concept of the trend line. Some people don’t get it. They seem to think it should go from 30% down to 30% up in a single session.


----------



## jabberwocky (Aug 12, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> Apparently, you’re going to need to explain the concept of the trend line. Some people don’t get it. They seem to think it should go from 30% down to 30% up in a single session.


Nope. I just find it funny when we ignore downside risk on the basis of a two month chart.

And just so people understand, if you have a 30% drop the market would have to increase over 42% just to get back to where you previously were.

Buying and holding with periodic rebalancing is the way to go IMO. Trying to time the market is a fools errand and buying because the trend line is moving that way is a quick way to lose money.


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## jabberwocky (Aug 12, 2022)

Brett said:


> maybe it's time to sell stocks and get survivalist gear
> 
> View attachment 62302


You never struck me as the survivalist type, but you can do what you want. I did increase my stock holdings a bit over the past few months as part of a reallocation between cash and stocks (I took my bond allocation to zero awhile back since the downside risk didn’t compensate for the upside risk).


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## Rolltydr (Aug 12, 2022)

jabberwocky said:


> Nope. I just find it funny when we ignore downside risk on the basis of a two month chart.


And just as funny, or foolish, to ignore the upside benefits. I like balanced reporting, not always doom and gloom, nor pie in the sky.


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Aug 16, 2022)

Ken Nuss: One Annuity May Pay More Than Twice as Much as Another Similar One




			https://www.newsmax.com/finance/kennuss/fixed-rate-annuity-payout-retirement-savings-income/2022/08/15/id/1083169/
		



Richard


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## easyrider (Sep 22, 2022)

My bet is markets begin to crash on Monday 9-26 or Tuesday 9-27. 

Bill


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## pedro47 (Sep 22, 2022)

easyrider said:


> My bet is markets begin to crash on Monday 9-26 or Tuesday 9-27.
> 
> Bill


This time I pray you are wrong.


----------



## Talent312 (Sep 22, 2022)

I'm putting a bit of $$ in "I-Bonds" for intermediate needs and stability.
At my age, stability is becoming more important.

That said, most of my $$ is remains in various stock ETF's.
They may have taken a beating, but the bear market won't last forever.
.


----------



## #1 Cowboys Fan (Sep 22, 2022)

easyrider said:


> My bet is markets begin to crash on Monday 9-26 or Tuesday 9-27.
> 
> Bill



Just curious, why one of those two particular days----not tomorrow, or after those two days?

And, your definition of 'crash' ?

p.s.  I too think we are headed down, but that's less definitive than your guess.


----------



## easyrider (Sep 22, 2022)

#1 Cowboys Fan said:


> Just curious, why one of those two particular days----not tomorrow, or after those two days?
> 
> And, your definition of 'crash' ?
> 
> p.s.  I too think we are headed down, but that's less definitive than your guess.



Sept 17, 2001 sell off. Sept 29, 2008 sell off. Sept 18, 2015 sell off. Sept 27 , 2022 ???? . All of these dates are about seven years apart and fall on Rosh Hashanah. It seems like an interesting trend and probably means nothing but things are lining up for sell off, imo. It might as well be on Rosh Hashanah.

Bill


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## PigsDad (Sep 23, 2022)

September does have a history of being a harsh month in the equities market.  October as well.  

Kurt


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## CO skier (Sep 23, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> From the same article:
> 
> View attachment 62275
> 
> ...


Then there is today, when that 20% bear market rally has gone bust, beginning August 16 -- five days after you posted the chart -- and the Nasdaq Composite it now back down to 11,000.


----------



## Talent312 (Sep 23, 2022)

From BankRate.com
"... the average bear market since 1929 has resulted in a roughly 37 percent decline in the S&P 500 and it has taken an average of 344 days, or nearly a year, for the market to reach its bear market bottom... The average duration from peak to trough would mean the market could bottom in mid-December 2022, based on its peak of January 3, 2022."


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## pedro47 (Sep 23, 2022)

Right now those I Bonds investments are looking very good.


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## Brett (Sep 23, 2022)

The S&P 500 Stock Market index has gone back to 2021 levels - _ finally a little stock market sense !_


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## pedro47 (Sep 23, 2022)

Brett said:


> The S&P 500 Stock Market index has gone back to 2021 levels - _ finally a little stock market sense !_


In the words of my financial advisor it is only a paper loss.


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## HitchHiker71 (Sep 23, 2022)

Talent312 said:


> I'm putting a bit of $$ in "I-Bonds" for intermediate needs and stability.
> At my age, stability is becoming more important.
> 
> That said, most of my $$ is remains in various stock ETF's.
> ...



This one may last longer than most anticipate when we consider the asset bubbles that exist due to cheap money from artificially low interest rates since 2008. Equity, debt, commodity and real estate markets are mostly in bubble territory still. The average bear market sees stock markets fall by 35-40% - we are at half that for most of the equity indices right now. 

Markets can sometimes remain irrational longer than most investors can stay liquid. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Sep 23, 2022)

When the Fed stops squeezing and starts easing, it's time to buy back in.


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## Talent312 (Sep 23, 2022)

As much as it pains me, a bit of retrenchment (or claw-back) seems only natural. 
I've had three negative years in the last 15 years (2008, 2015 & 2018)...
$$-wise, this has been the worst, but percentage-wise, it's about average, for me.
.


----------



## CO skier (Sep 23, 2022)

HitchHiker71 said:


> This one may last longer than most anticipate when we consider the asset bubbles that exist due to cheap money from artificially low interest rates since 2008. Equity, debt, commodity and real estate markets are mostly in bubble territory still. The average bear market sees stock markets fall by 35-40% - we are at half that for most of the equity indices right now.


That would be about right if the markets "revert to the mean" (Historic Trend Line).  I think the Fed will not jump-in with trillions to keep it from happening this time, as it did in 2020.  The Fed has a bloated balance sheet that needs to be unwound.


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## TravelTime (Sep 23, 2022)

Fed fund rate at 3% has resulted in mortgage rates of 6%. So if Fed raises fed fund rate to 4%, which is likely, I guess that could mean mortgages rate go to 8%. This is bad news for folks used to 4% fixed rate mortgages and those who switched to 4% five year adjustable mortgages that will come due eventually.

———————




			https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/23/stock-markets-fed-rate-hike/
		


… “The Fed’s continued balancing act between restoring price stability in exchange for economic pain has roiled the markets as hopes for a soft landing are quickly fading,” said Nicole Tanenbaum, partner and chief investment strategist at Chequers Financial Management. “Monetary policy is a blunt instrument, and investors are rightly concerned that the Fed may go too far too quickly before it is able to accurately assess the effects of its policy on the economy.”…

… The full weight of the Fed’s actions since March — pushing a key interest rate up by 3 percentage points already, with more increases still to come — may not be felt until later this year or next. But financial markets are taking in the central bank’s promise and sending alarms back out — making clear that no matter how many times Fed officials say they’re going to do whatever they can to crush inflation, the idea still roils Wall Street.…

… Analysts say the drop is not only about the Fed’s moves so far, but also about further tightening ahead, and the growing likelihood that the Fed cannot get inflation down without causing a recession. …

… Major market indexes are down significantly for the year so far, though the long bull market that lasted until recently means they’re still up more than 30 percent over the last five years.…

… The Fed’s benchmark interest rate now sits between 3 percent and 3.25 percent, and officials expect it to cross 4 percent by the end of the year, well into what is considered restrictive.

That rate does not directly control rates for mortgages and other loans. But it influences how much banks and other financial institutions pay to borrow, which helps drive loan pricing more broadly. And crucially, the Fed’s own communications — be it remarks from Fed officials or policymakers’ economic projections — are key to shaping financial conditions, and getting the markets to start pricing in rates hikes that are still to come...

… But it’s likely to take some time to see the full effects of changing financial conditions on inflation…


----------



## pedro47 (Sep 23, 2022)

S & P 500 stocks have been good the past 20 years. I guess it is time for a correction.


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## CO skier (Oct 1, 2022)

Dow suffers worst month since March 2020 | CNN Business

There is a saying on Wall Street, "Don't fight the Fed."  When the Fed injected $7 trillions in 2020 it was "Buy, Buy, Buy and Buy the Dips".  Now the Fed is unwinding some of that $7 trillion and aggressively raising interest rates.  Does anyone need a flashing red light "Sell, Sell, Sell and Sell the Rallies?"

Anyone who is holding stocks at this point in time is "Fighting the Fed".

Timing the market is not that difficult.


----------



## Brett (Oct 1, 2022)

CO skier said:


> Dow suffers worst month since March 2020 | CNN Business
> 
> There is a saying on Wall Street, "Don't fight the Fed."  When the Fed injected $7 trillions in 2020 it was "Buy, Buy, Buy and Buy the Dips".  Now the Fed is unwinding some of that $7 trillion and aggressively raising interest rates.  Does anyone need a flashing red light "Sell, Sell, Sell and Sell the Rallies?"
> 
> ...




I think timing the market *is *difficult.
And holding a % of investments in diversified stock index funds is not "fighting the fed"


----------



## DrQ (Oct 1, 2022)

CO skier said:


> Anyone who is holding stocks at this point in time is "Fighting the Fed".
> 
> Timing the market is not that difficult.


If you are holding on quality stocks generating dividends, selling now just turns paper losses into real losses.


----------



## CO skier (Oct 2, 2022)

DrQ said:


> If you are holding on quality stocks generating dividends, selling now just turns paper losses into real losses.


Thanks to the Fed $7 trillion juicing of the ecomony in 2020, some of which found its way to juicing the stock market for almost 2 years, anyone who sells now locks in a gain plus dividends versus the bubble levels of 2020 when this thread started.  It should be obvious the Fed is not riding to the rescue this time around.

So, what "losses" are you referring to?


----------



## CO skier (Oct 2, 2022)

Brett said:


> And holding a % of investments in diversified stock index funds is not "fighting the fed"


Clearly, you do not understand the meaning of the phrase.  What "diversified stock index fund" is not down substantially from the beginning of the year, or over the last month (substantially), or over the last week?


----------



## Brett (Oct 2, 2022)

CO skier said:


> Clearly, you do not understand the meaning of the phrase.  What "diversified stock index fund" is not down substantially from the beginning of the year, or over the last month (substantially), or over the last week?



Clearly you are not a "buy and hold" investor!    but hey, maybe you are the next warren buffett

Why timing the stock market is a bad idea
https://www.chase.com/personal/inve...cle/why-timing-the-stock-market-is-a-bad-idea


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## Superchief (Oct 2, 2022)

I think there are much better ways to reduce inflation without these significant increases in interest rates that ruin everyone's finances. This administration can cut back on wasteful spending and open up the energy market, both of which are the primary drivers of this out of control inflation. The Feds actions will cause a major recession in addition increasing the federal deficit. Many restaurants and small businesses will go bankrupt because people can't afford to go out to eat. The Inflation Inflammation Act also eliminates accelerated depreciation deductions for corporations, so they won't be buying new equipment. It makes me wonder whether anyone in government understands basic economics.


----------



## bluehende (Oct 2, 2022)

Superchief said:


> The Inflation Inflammation Act also eliminates depreciation deductions for corporations


Reference to this.  It sounds highly unlikely that I would hear of the biggest change to business tax law ever on tug.


----------



## Superchief (Oct 2, 2022)

bluehende said:


> Reference to this.  It sounds highly unlikely that I would hear of the biggest change to business tax law ever on tug.


It's a shame that you no longer can learn about these types of things through traditional media.


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## bluehende (Oct 2, 2022)

Superchief said:


> It's a shame that you no longer can learn about these types of things through traditional media.


Again....REFERENCE.  It is hard for me to believe business would be quiet about this no matter how many attacks on media you throw out there.

I assume you  mean the minimum tax.  It far from outlaws depreciation.  I will provide the actual congressional analysis...a reference.  Even if you pay a minimum tax that tax carries forward as a credit and depreciation is not mentioned.



			https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47202
		



A credit for additional minimum tax could be carried over to future years to offset regular tax when that tax is higher.


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## Brett (Oct 2, 2022)

Superchief said:


> It's a shame that you no longer can learn about these types of things through traditional media.




Actually one can learn about taxes in the "traditional" media but misinforation is prevalent in the "non-traditional" media

(hint: accelerated depreciation is still allowed)


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## Superchief (Oct 2, 2022)

IT is a very complex issue, but the net result is that corporations will be paying much higher taxes unless they are in one of the 'chosen' industries. Guess who really pays these additional taxes, consumers when they buy the products. Therefore more inflation. 









						The Inflation Reduction Act, Accelerated Depreciation, and the Balance Sheet Tax: An Analysis
					






					trainersadda.com


----------



## DrQ (Oct 3, 2022)

Credit Suisse Is in Deep Trouble - TheStreet
					

The Swiss banking giant is embroiled in a succession of financial scandals that now threaten its future.




					www.thestreet.com


----------



## MULTIZ321 (Oct 8, 2022)

5 Relatively Safe And Cheap Dividend Stocks To Invest In October 2022










						5 Relatively Safe & Cheap Dividend Stocks To Invest In - Oct. 2022
					

This article is part of our monthly series where we scan the entire universe of ~7,500 stocks that are listed on U.S. exchanges. See our 5 picks for Oct. 2022.




					seekingalpha.com
				





Richard


----------



## HitchHiker71 (Oct 8, 2022)

DrQ said:


> If you are holding on quality stocks generating dividends, selling now just turns paper losses into real losses.



Tax loss harvesting may make good sense in these cases. Check with your investment advisor as always - but realizing the losses and then reinvesting later may make for good tax planning. 









						How Tax-Loss Harvesting Works for Average Investors
					

Tax-loss harvesting lowers current federal taxes by deliberately incurring capital losses to offset taxes owed on capital gains or personal income.




					www.investopedia.com
				





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## HitchHiker71 (Oct 8, 2022)

Superchief said:


> I think there are much better ways to reduce inflation without these significant increases in interest rates that ruin everyone's finances. This administration can cut back on wasteful spending and open up the energy market, both of which are the primary drivers of this out of control inflation. The Feds actions will cause a major recession in addition increasing the federal deficit. Many restaurants and small businesses will go bankrupt because people can't afford to go out to eat. The Inflation Inflammation Act also eliminates accelerated depreciation deductions for corporations, so they won't be buying new equipment. It makes me wonder whether anyone in government understands basic economics.



Continuing to hold interest rates artificially low is what got us into all of this in the first place. Are you actually recommending we continue down the same destructive path? That makes zero sense IMHO. Experiencing the short term pain of a recession is much better than the corrosive long term effects of stagflation. By far. 

That said - I absolutely agree that the Inflation Reduction Act is a joke as it relates to taming inflation. Deficit overspending by further inflating the money supply is what has at least in part caused this inflation problem in the first place. Passing yet another huge spending bill doesn’t help - this is economics 101 conceptually yet we keep doing it repeatedly. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## dago (Oct 8, 2022)

HitchHiker71 said:


> Continuing to hold interest rates artificially low is what got us into all of this in the first place.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


i agree. The Fed should have started increasing rates a lot sooner than they did. IMO.


----------



## PigsDad (Oct 8, 2022)

HitchHiker71 said:


> That said - I absolutely agree that the Inflation Reduction Act is a joke as it relates to taming inflation. Deficit overspending by further inflating the money supply is what has at least in part caused this inflation problem in the first place. Passing yet another huge spending bill doesn’t help - this is economics 101 conceptually yet we keep doing it repeatedly.


If you are on the receiving end of the new/expanded programs in the Inflation Reduction Act, then it probably "reduces" inflation for you (but is paid for by other taxpayers).  

Kurt


----------



## HitchHiker71 (Oct 8, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> If you are on the receiving end of the new/expanded programs in the Inflation Reduction Act, then it probably "reduces" inflation for you (but is paid for by other taxpayers).
> 
> Kurt



Agreed. Many people seem to be under the impression that interest rate increases are the primary cause of equity market deleveraging and asset bubble deflationary events. While rising interest rates don’t help - it is the suspension of QE that occurred earlier this year - coupled with the Fed deleveraging their balance sheets that are causing the market deleveraging events. QE causes asset bubbles to form - there is no stopping the deleveraging events from occurring now that QE has stopped and the Fed balance sheet is starting to shrink (finally). 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Superchief (Oct 8, 2022)

HitchHiker71 said:


> Continuing to hold interest rates artificially low is what got us into all of this in the first place. Are you actually recommending we continue down the same destructive path? That makes zero sense IMHO. Experiencing the short term pain of a recession is much better than the corrosive long term effects of stagflation. By far.
> 
> That said - I absolutely agree that the Inflation Reduction Act is a joke as it relates to taming inflation. Deficit overspending by further inflating the money supply is what has at least in part caused this inflation problem in the first place. Passing yet another huge spending bill doesn’t help - this is economics 101 conceptually yet we keep doing it repeatedly.
> 
> ...


I agree that interest rates were kept artificially low for a long time and the stock market was overvalued partially due to that. However, I think the Fed is increasing the rates too much and too fast and will put many people in a difficult situation. It will be difficult for anyone to pay off credit card debt at these higher rates and the housing market will be hit pretty hard. A key driver of inflation today is energy costs and these can only be reduced if barriers are removed to increasing domestic production. Product shortages are another problem that won't be helped much by higher rates.


----------



## Superchief (Oct 8, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> If you are on the receiving end of the new/expanded programs in the Inflation Reduction Act, then it probably "reduces" inflation for you (but is paid for by other taxpayers).
> 
> Kurt


Who is going to vote against Santa Klaus?


----------



## dago (Oct 8, 2022)

Superchief said:


> I agree that interest rates were kept artificially low for a long time and the stock market was overvalued partially due to that. However, I think the Fed is increasing the rates too much and too fast and will put many people in a difficult situation. It will be difficult for anyone to pay off credit card debt at these higher rates and the housing market will be hit pretty hard. A key driver of inflation today is energy costs and these can only be reduced if barriers are removed to increasing domestic production. Product shortages are another problem that won't be helped much by higher rates.


Yes, but if the fed had started increasing rates a lot earlier, they possibly would not have had to do it at this fast pace. They could have done small increases slowly rather than high increases fast. Just an opinion. I don't claim to be an expert in economics.


----------



## HitchHiker71 (Oct 8, 2022)

Superchief said:


> I agree that interest rates were kept artificially low for a long time and the stock market was overvalued partially due to that. However, I think the Fed is increasing the rates too much and too fast and will put many people in a difficult situation. It will be difficult for anyone to pay off credit card debt at these higher rates and the housing market will be hit pretty hard. A key driver of inflation today is energy costs and these can only be reduced if barriers are removed to increasing domestic production. Product shortages are another problem that won't be helped much by higher rates.



While I understand your concerns - the Fed has but two mandates. One, price stability (low inflation), and two, maximum employment - in that order. Every other data point is outside of their mandate and doesn’t factor in. 

The Fed is being mild compared to the last time we saw stagflation under Volcker. If we were to go by history - the Fed would be raising rates inline with headline inflation - or around 8-9%. As it stands - the Fed is indicating they will raise rates to roughly half of that measure or 4.25-4.5% - perhaps as high as 5% and then pause. They are also taking this approach because their leading indicators for headline price inflation show annualized rates falling to 4.5-5% in March/April of next year - which is why they are gliding toward roughly that fed funds rate at around the same point in time. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## rapmarks (Oct 8, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Who is going to vote against Santa Klaus?


Florida  Congressmen voted against the bill that contained hurricane relief for Florida


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## Superchief (Oct 9, 2022)

rapmarks said:


> Florida  Congressmen voted against the bill that contained hurricane relief for Florida


Perhaps they don't believe in Santa Klaus and realize someone has to pay for all those presents.


----------



## TravelTime (Oct 10, 2022)

*Nobel Economics PrizeEx-Fed Chair Bernanke Among Winners for Work on Financial Crises*









						Nobel Economics Prize: Ex-Fed Chair Bernanke Among Winners for Work on Financial Crises
					

Ben S. Bernanke, the former Federal Reserve chair, and the economists Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig were awarded for research on banks and “how society deals with financial crises.”




					www.nytimes.com
				




Ben S. Bernanke, the former chair of the Federal Reserve, on Monday won a Nobel Memorial Prize in economics for his research into banks and financial crises — work he was able to draw on in real time while fighting the worst downturn America had faced since the Great Depression.

Mr. Bernanke became Fed chair in 2006, shortly before U.S. house prices ended their breakneck ascent and began an unexpected and devastating decline. As the housing market cooled, overextended borrowers fell behind and defaulted on their mortgages, and a pile of risky mortgage debt that had been sliced, diced and parceled out across big banks and the broader financial system began to drag down institutions and break the gears of finance.

Mr. Bernanke, who received a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and who taught at Princeton University before coming to the Fed as a governor in 2002, drew upon his research about the Great Depression to try to stem the fallout. He worked with colleagues to set up emergency programs that backstopped various markets on the brink of collapse, from short-term business debt to securitized loans. And alongside the Treasury Department, he used the Fed’s powers to enable bailouts for bank and insurance company portfolios.

Mr. Bernanke’s track record on the crisis included controversy. The Fed and Treasury Department allowed Lehman Brothers to fail, which Mr. Bernanke has said he and his colleagues believed was their only option. Some critics have since argued that the investment bank could and should have been saved. The ripple effects of that failure worsened the downturn, which lasted from 2007 to 2009 in the United States and sent activity tumbling around the world.

But the Fed acted aggressively to try to resuscitate the economy. Under Mr. Bernanke’s watch, it began to implement bond-buying policies in which it purchased huge amounts of government-backed debt to lower long-term interest rates. It also pushed toward greater transparency, beginning to hold quarterly news conferences (which now accompany every rate-setting meeting) and formally adopting an inflation target of 2 percent.

Mr. Bernanke left the Fed in 2014 and he is now a distinguished senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He won the Nobel for his work on financial crises, including a 1983 paperthat broke ground in explaining that bank failures propagate downturns and aren’t simply a side effect of them.


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## easyrider (Oct 11, 2022)

I think this next year may be the year of massive global debt forgiveness via corporate bankruptcy. Very likely a war in 2023 as well. This is because 2023 is a Jubalee Year and of how intertwined the global economy is. It will be different than those of the past because of technology so it could be better or worse but likely faster. If 1973 is an indicator then it might be an entire monetary shift similar to the collapse of the Brenton Wood system on the way. OR it could be business as usual with the fiat system which only works when other countries agree that it works. 

The other possibility is things go well but things are lining up to not so well, imo.

Bill


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## Brett (Oct 12, 2022)

easyrider said:


> I think this next year may be the year of massive global debt forgiveness via corporate bankruptcy. Very likely a war in 2023 as well. This is because 2023 is a Jubalee Year and of how intertwined the global economy is. It will be different than those of the past because of technology so it could be better or worse but likely faster. If 1973 is an indicator then it might be an entire monetary shift similar to the collapse of the Brenton Wood system on the way. OR it could be business as usual with the fiat system which only works when other countries agree that it works.
> 
> The other possibility is things go well but things are lining up to not so well, imo.
> 
> Bill



wars, collapses. bankruptcies, "Jubalee Year"  OR "things go well" next year   

.


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## easyrider (Oct 12, 2022)

I'm wondering how the rest of the week goes and haven't really thought too much about next year. It could be another bad cpi report tomorrow causing another dip is what I'm watching. That and paypal, lol. It was interesting to see paypal's stock tank yesterday after their terms of service included fines for misinformation. It could have been Elon Musk's tweet that caused the sell off even after paypal claimed that the tos wouldn't include the misinformation clause. Maybe Friday's deal.

Bill


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## DrQ (Oct 31, 2022)

*Swiss National Bank loses nearly $143 billion in first nine months*








						Swiss National Bank loses nearly $143 billion in first nine months
					

ZURICH (Reuters) -The Swiss National Bank lost 142.2 billion Swiss francs  ($142.60 billion) in the first nine months of 2022, it said on Monday, as rising interest rates and the stronger Swiss franc slashed the value of the central bank's foreign investments.  The loss - the largest in the...




					finance.yahoo.com


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## DrQ (Oct 31, 2022)

*IRS: Growing gap between U.S. income taxes owed and paid*








						IRS: Growing gap between U.S. income taxes owed and paid
					

WASHINGTON — The amount of income tax money owed but not paid to the IRS is projected to grow, the agency said Friday.




					www.columbian.com


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## DrQ (Nov 3, 2022)

*Shipping giant Maersk warns 'dark clouds' on the horizon mean consumer buying will falter, threatening global economy*

Shipping giant Maersk warned 'dark clouds' threaten the global economy as container demand slows.
The Ukraine war and high inflation are weighing on consumer purchasing power, its CEO said Wednesday.
Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, expects a more volatile business environment ahead.









						Shipping giant Maersk warns 'dark clouds' on the horizon mean consumer buying will falter, threatening global economy
					

Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, pointed to high inflation and the Ukraine war as it said it expects consumer buying power to falter.




					markets.businessinsider.com


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## Brett (Nov 8, 2022)

The author of the classic ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ still believes the markets are hard for any individual to beat.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/burton-malkiel-random-walk-wall-street-indexing-11667510020

_"Dr. Malkiel, 90 years old, still says index investing beats other approaches, and he has half a century of additional data to bolster his case 

The essential part of efficient markets: that there are no arbitrage opportunities, no easy way to make money, without taking on a good deal of risk. The result is that markets become very, very hard for any investor to beat. Only a handful of outliers, like Warren Buffett, have done it consistently, and even they flag sooner or later. 
It’s almost impossible to predict who will succeed going forward. Buffett himself recommends indexing.


WSJ: And you still believe indexing is the best way for people to invest in stocks?

DR. MALKIEL: Oh, without doubt, because it works. Each year about two-thirds of active managers underperform the index, and those who outperform in one year are not the same as those who outperform in the next. S&P does something called Spiva, in which they compare the S&P indexes with active managers. And what it shows is that over a 10-year period, roughly 90% of domestic stock funds, for example, are outperformed by the index. 

Malkiel advocates indexing, dollar-cost averaging and diversification, but makes mincemeat of such practices as technical analysis, ESG and ‘smart beta.’ So it might surprise some investors
that he does buy individual stocks. ‘I’ve always liked gambling; it’s fun. So yes, I buy individual stocks.’ but my retirement accounts are 100% indexed. "_


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## MULTIZ321 (Nov 9, 2022)

American Tower And Crown Castle: Pick Up A Cell Tower REIT While It's In The Bargain Bin










						American Tower And Crown Castle: Pick Up A Cell Tower REIT While It's In Bargain Bin
					

American Tower and Crown Castle both suffered large losses in 2022. Shares are down over 25% and 35% YTD, respectively. Read more here.




					seekingalpha.com
				





Richard


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## MULTIZ321 (Nov 9, 2022)

This Dividend Aristocrat With A 7% Yield ls A Real Buy Low Opportunity










						This Dividend Aristocrat With A 7% Yield Is A Real Buy Low Opportunity - Dividend Strategists
					

VF Corporation, which has increased its dividend annually for nearly 50 years, is on sale.




					www.thestreet.com
				





Richard


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## CO skier (Nov 9, 2022)

MULTIZ321 said:


> This Dividend Aristocrat With A 7% Yield ls A Real Buy Low Opportunity


"Dividend Aristocrats"

"Nifty Fifty"

"Past performance is no guarantee of future success"

*"A high dividend yield for a short period of time is meaningless if it cannot be maintained. Prior to this disclosure, V.F. was losing money and paying out 183% of its earnings, with no free cash flow being produced. It would be impossible to keep paying out dividends that are so high compared to earnings and still have no free cash flow."*

That is a lesson I learned investing in some "Dividend Aristocrat" bank stocks in 2008, just before they slashed their dividends.  I sold when each reached a 10% loss.  Good thing, because the stock prices bottomed at much lower prices in 2009.

This article strikes me as a classic "pump and dump" piece.  I would not touch this stock with a ten foot pole (or a $10 bill).

VF Corp. stock price closed at $26.90 today.  Anyone want to predict where it will be a year from now?  Let us revisit it then as a significant data point for the "Dividend Aristocrats."


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## easyrider (Nov 9, 2022)

CO skier said:


> "Dividend Aristocrats"
> 
> "Nifty Fifty"
> 
> ...



I had Washington Mutual on the advice of a financial advisor and we didn't get out in time. When I complained he told me he personally lost over $700,000 on Wa Mu and I was lucky to have got out when I did. After that I pulled out of stocks for the most part and bought real estate. I think there will be another buying opportunity regarding property like in 2008 within a couple of years if not sooner.

Bill


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## Brett (Nov 11, 2022)

Dow Jones Soars 1,200 Points On Inflation Report
https://www.investors.com/market-tr...report-why-market-rally-may-have-room-to-run/

Stock prices surged and bond yields dropped sharply Thursday as traders welcomed signs of ebbing price pressures. Investors are hoping that easing inflation means the Fed might not have to
raise interest rates as high as previously feared.

U.S. government bond yields marked their steepest one-day declines in more than a decade Thursday after fresh data showed inflation fell more in October than Wall Street expected.


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## Superchief (Nov 11, 2022)

I hope energy prices don't start driving up inflation again. Diesel is in short supply, the oil reserve utilization will stop after November, and no barriers have been removed for increased US oil production. I expect gas prices to start increasing in the near future and shipping costs will continue to rise. Russia is also becoming more influential in OPEC policies, so don't expect any help there.


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## MULTIZ321 (Nov 25, 2022)

[Deleted - included in the article is an investment solicitation.]


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## MULTIZ321 (Dec 16, 2022)

How Dividend Growth Investing Works










						How Dividend Growth Investing Works - Dividend Strategists
					

The basic dividend growth approach is simple: accumulate excellent dividend-growth stocks and reinvest the dividends as they come in.




					www.thestreet.com
				





Richard


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## dago (Dec 16, 2022)

Been doing that for years


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