# they can't be serious! [Ocean Watch resale]



## mlfrancis (Nov 5, 2012)

received this e-mail this morning:

_Dear Marriott’s Ocean Watch Owner; 

You are receiving this communication as a result of registering an interest to sell your ownership with our Resale Operations Department.  At this time, Marriott Vacation Club International (MVCI) is extending an offer to purchase your Gold Season, Ocean View week at Marriott’s Ocean Watch for $4,250 less $750 administrative and processing fees.  At closing, your approximate net proceeds will be $3,500*.   The first year occupancy to MVCI will be 2014.


I had it listed a few years ago but no way would I sell for this price._


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## TheTimeTraveler (Nov 5, 2012)

mlfrancis said:


> received this e-mail this morning:
> 
> _Dear Marriott’s Ocean Watch Owner;
> 
> ...


_




Remember, Marriott is out to generate revenue.  Imagine how much money they make selling these same units over and over again....




._


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## dioxide45 (Nov 5, 2012)

What do these go for on the open market? Looks like their administration fees are going up and maybe their offer prices going down? Perhaps trying to squeeze some extra revenue out?

_ETA: Perhaps the administration fee is higher because the property is in SC and they may need to have documents prepared by an in state attorney?_


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## ronparise (Nov 5, 2012)

Real Estate agents will often say..."The first offer is often your best offer"

I know that for some reason some timeshares sell for more than a few dollars, some Marriott's  among them. But you may regret not taking this sometime down the road


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## dougp26364 (Nov 5, 2012)

The only reason for accepting such an offer would be the need to get out from under the MF's. It's a good offer in that scenario in that you still get a little cash in hand and you're no longer obligated to pay MF's into infinity. Otherwise, I'd be laughing at the offer and keeping my week. 

While my Marriott weeks have that sort of value to us, I have at least one week (non-Marriott) that is likely to cost me closer to $2,000 to sell. It's a non-descript week that, even though it's done well for us, has no value on the open market. The problem is the management company has put in place a poison pill of paying $1,500 in advance maintenance/assessment fee's plus transfer fee's and then there would be closing costs I'd probably have to pay to get someone to take the week off my hands. Right now it's not worth spending $2,000 to get rid of because the MF's are so low and the exchanges we've received have been so good. Even if we never received another decent exchange, the resort is nice enough we could use it every year and the MF's are low enough they're not a concern. Thus, it's not worth selling just to sell but, if we had an offer like your Ocean Watch week, I'd jump on it like a duck on a june bug.

So whether this offer is good or bad just depends on the personal value you place on this week. Not so much it's resale value but the what-is-it-worth-to-you value. It appears to me that it's worth more than what Marriott is offering at this time.


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## FractionalTraveler (Nov 5, 2012)

I agree.  I see it as a great offer for someone who really needs the funds and does not want to continue paying MF.

Timeshares are not real estate investments nor do they appreciate in financial value.  Their value is in their usage.

When your done with the usage, sell it at the best price you can get and move on with life.

FT


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## EKniager (Nov 5, 2012)

No reason to be shocked or insulted.  Two Oceanwatch Gold weeks were purchased by a TUG'er on eBay in 2011 (or was it 2010?) for ~$3,500.  Regardless, go to Redweek or TUG Classified and see what they are being advertised for.  I have seen a few brokers asking for $7,500 for that category.  Personally, I am on the lookout to buy a Gold there for under $5K.  It's just business.


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## dougp26364 (Nov 5, 2012)

EKniager said:


> No reason to be shocked or insulted.  Two Oceanwatch Gold weeks were purchased by a TUG'er on eBay in 2011 (or was it 2010?) for ~$3,500.  Regardless, go to Redweek or TUG Classified and see what they are being advertised for.  I have seen a few brokers asking for $7,500 for that category.  Personally, I am on the lookout to buy a Gold there for under $5K.  It's just business.



Just keep in mind that the advertised price is not always what the week sells for, if it sells at all. I have seen Polo Towes weeks advertised for $10,000 and up. Those weeks often sell, when they sell, for less than $1,000 and I've seen many go for under $500. 

If you want a week for 5K, don't let the asking price stop you from making an offer........then making the same offer or lower a few weeks/months down the road when the unit hasn't moved. At first they might respond with a "They can't be serious" responce, but after they've sit on the week for another year without selling it, they might start coming around to the thought that they should've taken the offer.


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## swaits (Nov 5, 2012)

You may choose to be offended, but the reality is that this is probably not far off of market value. Good luck getting that amount anywhere else.


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## EKniager (Nov 5, 2012)

dougp26364 said:


> Just keep in mind that the advertised price is not always what the week sells for, if it sells at all. I have seen Polo Towes weeks advertised for $10,000 and up. Those weeks often sell, when they sell, for less than $1,000 and I've seen many go for under $500.
> 
> If you want a week for 5K, don't let the asking price stop you from making an offer........then making the same offer or lower a few weeks/months down the road when the unit hasn't moved. At first they might respond with a "They can't be serious" responce, but after they've sit on the week for another year without selling it, they might start coming around to the thought that they should've taken the offer.



I agree with you.  I always assume something less than "Asking" price.


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## thinze3 (Nov 5, 2012)

Marriott sent the same letter to me for my Waiohai. It was really low, but I don't think the offer is all that out of line.  I think your offer is also in line with today's market.


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## thinze3 (Nov 5, 2012)

EKniager said:


> I agree with you.  I always assume something less than "Asking" price.



Way less than asking price.


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## EKniager (Nov 5, 2012)

thinze3 said:


> Way less than asking price.



It would have to be in most cases for the economics to make sense to me, though I never assume sellers understand the current market.  If they really want to sell, they eventually figure it out.


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## larryallen (Nov 5, 2012)

It's like they are in business to make money or something!  Crazy!


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## MALC9990 (Nov 5, 2012)

larryallen said:


> It's like they are in business to make money or something!  Crazy!



Sure they are in business to make a profit and the price offered is probably realistic but $750 for admin - a little inflated in my view. What really is daylight robbery, is asking more than $10 per point for DC Trust points when a decent week at a decent resort can require 3,500 or more points. So that resale week will get recycled for 10 times what Marriott are paying for it. 

On a more reasonable gross proffit basis I'd say that means DC Trust points should be selling for about $2 to $3 per point. Would still give a profit margin that most businesses would die for providing MVCI would control their other costs.


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## mlfrancis (Nov 5, 2012)

*that's my point*



dougp26364 said:


> I'd be laughing at the offer and keeping my week.



no need to sell ... I'm keeping my week.  Marriott itself has obviously seen where the market is today for their timeshares.


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## timeos2 (Nov 5, 2012)

Nearly all resorts now average under <$5000 resale value - in fact it is closer to $1000 or less now. Specific resorts / units / use times MAY be $5000 if the stars cross just right but on average no way. And those that are at $5000 today most likely will be worth less - not more - as the years go by due to ever rising annual fees (the real cost of any timeshare. Purchase price does nothing to reduce the fees due over your ownership & why it is SO important to get the absolute lowest price possible at the resort you desire). 

My guess is that a year from now if you want to sell this offer will look very good and what you'd get then will be less.  If you are a serious seller you are best advised to consider it carefully - if you were just testing the water & intend to remain an owner just be aware that the value will never be in resale price but in whatever use / memories you get while you own.  And that your likely selling price when the day finally comes will be at or well below the number you have today.  That's just the way the market is and it isn't getting better anytime soon. 

Anyone with any timeshare ownership that thinks they are sitting on a pay day when they sell (with an extremely short list of potential exceptions  most of which none of us here own) is in for a very rude awakening when they really do try to sell.  Figure $0 and if your really lucky you'll make a few dollars - but likely it will cost you to be out as Doug mentions above. Thats the timeshare world of today & likely tomorrow as well.


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## EKniager (Nov 5, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Nearly all resorts now average under <$5000 resale value - in fact it is closer to $1000 or less now. Specific resorts / units / use times MAY be $5000 if the stars cross just right but on average no way. And those that are at $5000 today most likely will be worth less - not more - as the years go by due to ever rising annual fees (the real cost of any timeshare. Purchase price does nothing to reduce the fees due over your ownership & why it is SO important to get the absolute lowest price possible at the resort you desire).
> 
> My guess is that a year from now if you want to sell this offer will look very good and what you'd get then will be less.  If you are a serious seller you are best advised to consider it carefully - if you were just testing the water & intend to remain an owner just be aware that the value will never be in resale price but in whatever use / memories you get while you own.  And that your likely selling price when the day finally comes will be at or well below the number you have today.  That's just the way the market is and it isn't getting better anytime soon.
> 
> Anyone with any timeshare ownership that thinks they are sitting on a pay day when they sell (with an extremely short list of potential exceptions  most of which none of us here own) is in for a very rude awakening when they really do try to sell.  Figure $0 and if your really lucky you'll make a few dollars - but likely it will cost you to be out as Doug mentions above. Thats the timeshare world of today & likely tomorrow as well.



John, you are like a broken record.  This is the Marriott board and I'm willing to bet there a number of platinum weeks, like mine in Aruba, whose value and re-sale price is significantly higher than $5K.  Any property with rental demand 2-3X MF has a very attractive NPV (net present value) and will retain its value.  As the real estate market continues to recover (as well as the economy), I am also willing to bet that pricing for re-sale TS units will rise as well.  With VAC's mean target price of $49 versus its current price of $38, it appears analysts are bullish on TS profits as well.  Sure their model is a little different, but if TS sales and pricing were forecasted to be down, Canter Fitzgerald would not be considering them a BUY.  The Marriott system is a bit different from the overall average TS unit.


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## SMB1 (Nov 5, 2012)

EKniager said:


> John, you are like a broken record.  This is the Marriott board and I'm willing to bet there a number of platinum weeks, like mine in Aruba, whose value and re-sale price is significantly higher than $5K.  Any property with rental demand 2-3X MF has a very attractive NPV (net present value) and will retain its value.  As the real estate market continues to recover (as well as the economy), I am also willing to bet that pricing for re-sale TS units will rise as well.  With VAC's mean target price of $49 versus its current price of $38, it appears analysts are bullish on TS profits as well.  Sure their model is a little different, but if TS sales and pricing were forecasted to be down, Canter Fitzgerald would not be considering them a BUY.  The Marriott system is a bit different from the overall average TS unit.



I would many times agree with the "broken record" comment, but didn't view this post in that way.  I think, other than the under 5000.00 comment, this was just an objective view of the overall timeshare market at present.


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## bogey21 (Nov 5, 2012)

mlfrancis said:


> I had it listed a few years ago but no way would I sell for this price.



What you do is simply reply and tell them you are not interested.  

George


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## BocaBoy (Nov 5, 2012)

I think it is a little hard for people to have it both ways.  I frequently read here about how the MVCI timeshares are worth close to nothing and that the true market is found on EBay (which BTW I don't agree with--I view EBay as more like the foreclosure market).  Then when MVCI offers a price higher than that market, I read that it is an insulting offer.  I personally believe that MVCI's buy back offers are normally higher than what can be found elsewhere, and the ease and security of selling back to MVCI is also worth something.  It is, after all, an offer that can be either accepted or rejected.


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## SueDonJ (Nov 5, 2012)

BocaBoy said:


> I think it is a little hard for people to have it both ways.  I frequently read here about how the MVCI timeshares are worth close to nothing and that the true market is found on EBay (which BTW I don't agree with--I view EBay as more like the foreclosure market).  Then when MVCI offers a price higher than that market, I read that it is an insulting offer.  I personally believe that MVCI's buy back offers are normally higher than what can be found elsewhere, and the ease and security of selling back to MVCI is also worth something.  It is, after all, an offer that can be either accepted or rejected.



+1  I agree.


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## swaits (Nov 5, 2012)

BocaBoy said:


> (which BTW I don't agree with--I view EBay as more like the foreclosure market)



eBay is simply the most visible market.


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## mlfrancis (Nov 5, 2012)

*I'm not selling*



bogey21 said:


> What you do is simply reply and tell them you are not interested.
> 
> George



someone actually called today to follow up on the e-mail that was sent, I told them no thanks at that price.  They must be getting desperate for MOW weeks if they're being that aggressive.

I'm not interested in selling ... we were at one point, but are  moving to NC in December and will only be 2 hours from MOW - so it's a nice, easy trip for us.  And we love that resort.

I just posted the original comment to see what others were experiencing.


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## Bucky (Nov 6, 2012)

EKniager said:


> No reason to be shocked or insulted.  Two Oceanwatch Gold weeks were purchased by a TUG'er on eBay in 2011 (or was it 2010?) for ~$3,500.  Regardless, go to Redweek or TUG Classified and see what they are being advertised for.  I have seen a few brokers asking for $7,500 for that category.  Personally, I am on the lookout to buy a Gold there for under $5K.  It's just business.



That TUG'er was probably me. I paid $2500 ea for the 2 gold weeks I bought off of eBay in 2011. I'd do it again in a heartbeat. In addition to this being close to our home, the rental income that can be obtained is ridiculous compared to what we paid, regardless of what people may think. These weeks regularly rent for $2000+ during the month of Aug, thus I can rent one, if I so choose, and pay the MF for both!

MOW is the premier resort in MB and for that reason alone it will continue to draw a premium price IMO. I bought mine during what I call the "fire sale" period. People were losing their jobs left and right and needed cash just to survive, much less to have places at the beach.


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## EKniager (Nov 6, 2012)

Bucky said:


> That TUG'er was probably me. I paid $2500 ea for the 2 gold weeks I bought off of eBay in 2011. I'd do it again in a heartbeat. In addition to this being close to our home, the rental income that can be obtained is ridiculous compared to what we paid, regardless of what people may think. These weeks regularly rent for $2000+ during the month of Aug, thus I can rent one, if I so choose, and pay the MF for both!
> 
> MOW is the premier resort in MB and for that reason alone it will continue to draw a premium price IMO. I bought mine during what I call the "fire sale" period. People were losing their jobs left and right and needed cash just to survive, much less to have places at the beach.



Right on cue!  

(Pretty good "investment" for you, huh?)


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## timeos2 (Nov 6, 2012)

EKniager said:


> John, you are like a broken record.  This is the Marriott board and I'm willing to bet there a number of platinum weeks, like mine in Aruba, whose value and re-sale price is significantly higher than $5K.  Any property with rental demand 2-3X MF has a very attractive NPV (net present value) and will retain its value.  As the real estate market continues to recover (as well as the economy), I am also willing to bet that pricing for re-sale TS units will rise as well.  With VAC's mean target price of $49 versus its current price of $38, it appears analysts are bullish on TS profits as well.  Sure their model is a little different, but if TS sales and pricing were forecasted to be down, Canter Fitzgerald would not be considering them a BUY.  The Marriott system is a bit different from the overall average TS unit.



I said a few, very specific weeks are rare exceptions. Yours may be (but until you want to & actually sell you cannot really know - but your chances are far better than most). Not all weeks at your or any resort are top tier & those drag down the value overall.  So you bought well - most don't or can't (there are only so many premier weeks to sell).  

So what you state is likely true for you and backs up my original statement perfectly. MOST timeshares, even Marriott's, are worth $5000 or less. Mostly far less. The resale statistics prove it.


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## ronparise (Nov 6, 2012)

EKniager said:


> John, you are like a broken record.  This is the Marriott board and I'm willing to bet there a number of platinum weeks, like mine in Aruba, whose value and re-sale price is significantly higher than $5K.  Any property with rental demand 2-3X MF has a very attractive NPV (net present value) and will retain its value.  As the real estate market continues to recover (as well as the economy), I am also willing to bet that pricing for re-sale TS units will rise as well.  With VAC's mean target price of $49 versus its current price of $38, it appears analysts are bullish on TS profits as well.  Sure their model is a little different, but if TS sales and pricing were forecasted to be down, Canter Fitzgerald would not be considering them a BUY.  The Marriott system is a bit different from the overall average TS unit.



Just to be clear, Canter Fitzgerald  considers the stock a buy. I dont think they are recommending one way or another whether or not you should buy a timeshare week or points

The stocks of timeshare companies may be a buy because these companies have perfected a way of selling $300000 condos for in excess of a million dollars. and because they make a killing on their management contracts. None of which has anything to do with the resale value of the weeks and or points that they manage

There is no efficient resale market place for timeshares, (no mls like for other real estate and no NASDAQ or NYSE like for stocks) The closest thing we  have is ebay..a big auction market that brings buyers and sellers together. If you can get more for your timeshare than an ebay auction, consider yourself lucky, you found an uninformed buyer and were able to take advantage of his ignorance

The only monetary value a timeshare has is connected to its value as a rental property. If I can rent a comparable place for something equal to or less than my maintenance fees; my timeshare has no value. If a comparable rental will cost me more than maintenance fees ; that timeshare has value. 

John is right. the number of timeshares that are worth something more than $5000 are few and far between. I dont doubt that Marriott has more of these than most other systems, (and if you own one; lucky you) but as a percentage of the whole..I think the number is quite small


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 6, 2012)

So why are silver weeks so cheap on the resale?  A OW Silver OF sold for $1. The same GO OF is selling for $5k+. I know seasons aren't the same but it still seems OW Oct weeks are much less desired and its only 2 hours up the coast. 

Is the OW Oct weather that questionable?


I was really intrigued by the OW OF Silver but I'm still without power at night so I couldn't research in time and just passed. It would fit perfectly with my GO OF weeks but the lack for demand makes me wonder if I'm missing something. If the weather is still nice all I need to do is rent for MFs when not using. As my son gets closer to HS graduation the use of my HHI units becomes more and more a reality so I want to get the right units in line.


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## mlfrancis (Nov 6, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> its only 2 hours up the coast. Is the OW Oct weather that questionable?QUOTE]
> 
> more like 4+ hours, not 2...MB is ~2 hours north of Charleston.
> 
> ...


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## BocaBoy (Nov 6, 2012)

ronparise said:


> The *only* monetary value a timeshare has is connected to its value as a rental property. If I can rent a comparable place for something equal to or less than my maintenance fees; my timeshare has *no value*.


That is certainly an overstatement.  I am not suggesting that rental value compared to maintenance fees is not a relevant factor.  It clearly is and it is important.  But there is so much more than that.  This includes factors such as easier access to the weeks you want every year (and without the significant effort and risk of dealing with unknown third parties on your rentals), the ability to trade (don't forget XYZs) and to purchase Getaways through II, the flexibility to convert weeks to DC points, etc.  Many people also simply like the concept of vacation ownership.  Never make the mistake of thinking that all people (including fully informed people) value things the same way you do.


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## BarbS (Nov 6, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> So why are silver weeks so cheap on the resale?  A OW Silver OF sold for $1. The same GO OF is selling for $5k+. I know seasons aren't the same but it still seems OW Oct weeks are much less desired and its only 2 hours up the coast.
> 
> Is the OW Oct weather that questionable?
> 
> ...



I've never seen an OW OF silver week go for $1......and I've been looking for quite a while.  Are you sure it wasn't a Bronze week?  Silver season at OW includes the last 2 weeks in September and all of October, which IMO is much preferable to silver season at Grande Ocean or Barony because their silver seasons don't start until the first week in November.


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## timeos2 (Nov 6, 2012)

BocaBoy said:


> That is certainly an overstatement.  I am not suggesting that rental value compared to maintenance fees is not a relevant factor.  It clearly is and it is important.  But there is so much more than that.  This includes factors such as easier access to the weeks you want every year (and without the significant effort and risk of dealing with unknown third parties on your rentals), the ability to trade (don't forget XYZs) and to purchase Getaways through II, the flexibility to convert weeks to DC points, etc.  Many people also simply like the concept of vacation ownership.  Never make the mistake of thinking that all people (including fully informed people) value things the same way you do.



Al that is fine when you look at the value of paying the high fees for use each year but have virtually no imact on RESALE value as that money is only used to obtain the right to pay the fees and use the time - nothing more. No matter how much, or little, you pay to purchase the fees due from your pocket will be exactly the same. Purchase money is money lost on the total deal. Expect that you will get zero back when YOU try to sell. If you are lucky you'll get more but never ever and regardless of any brand assume that it will have a resale value. Most do NOT. 

(Yes, I know, rare exceptions exist - but even those are steadily declining in value. Assume zero value & then you can be pleased if it exceeds that expectation.)


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## BarbS (Nov 6, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Al that is fine when you look at the value of paying the high fees for use each year but have virtually no imact on RESALE value as that money is only used to obtain the right to pay the fees and use the time - nothing more. No matter how much, or little, you pay to purchase the fees due from your pocket will be exactly the same. Purchase money is money lost on the total deal. Expect that you will get zero back when YOU try to sell. If you are lucky you'll get more but never ever and regardless of any brand assume that it will have a resale value. Most do NOT.
> 
> (Yes, I know, rare exceptions exist - but even those are steadily declining in value. Assume zero value & then you can be pleased if it exceeds that expectation.)



None of the gold/platinum (and some silver) oceanfront Marriott weeks will ever be worth zero.


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## timeos2 (Nov 6, 2012)

BarbS said:


> None of the gold/platinum (and some silver) oceanfront Marriott weeks will ever be worth zero.



Cannot be said. If fees continue to rise, and they likely will, the value will eventually be gone even for the prime times. It has happened before and as resorts age they become more vulnerable. Owners age too and if a large group starts to need to sell there goes the price. 

No timeshare is safe from it. Yours may do better - or may just reach the $5000 or less point like most - but you cannot depend on anything but zero resale value. 30 years+ of timeshare history says its a fact. Ignore history at your own risk.


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## BarbS (Nov 6, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Cannot be said. If fees continue to rise, and they likely will, the value will eventually be gone even for the prime times. It has happened before and as resorts age they become more vulnerable. Owners age too and if a large group starts to need to sell there goes the price.
> 
> No timeshare is safe from it. Yours may do better - or may just reach the $5000 or less point like most - but you cannot depend on anything but zero resale value. 30 years+ of timeshare history says its a fact. Ignore history at your own risk.



I prefer to not to take any advice on Marriott timeshares from someone who does not own any Marriotts.  Are your non-Marriotts worth zero too?


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## timeos2 (Nov 6, 2012)

BarbS said:


> I prefer to not to take any advice on Marriott timeshares from someone who does not own any Marriotts.  Are your non-Marriotts worth zero too?



Don't honestly know. They may be worth $3000 -$4000 based on sales I've seen but I assume when the day comes that I'm ready to part with them it will be zero. If I get more halleluiah!  To assume they have a value is a false hope. Until the sale is finalized assume nothing and you'll never be disappointed. 

Want a gauge of value? Ask any bankruptcy attorney what ANY timeshare is worth. Any one. The answer, by the way, is ZERO. They are an extremely illiquid holding, not asset, with ongoing expenses that cannot be sold quickly for any value. 

Sorry truth hurts but owning Disney or Marriott or Hilton or Joe Blow Paradise World timeshare makes no difference. It isn't an easy nor a guaranteed sale. I don't have to own there to know that. 

I DID own Disney and, through dumb luck & hating the control they, like Marriott, have I sold for a profit. But today that same ownership would sell for a loss (from my purchase cost). Why? Because fees are up and rental values and remaining years left are down so the price is down. Glad I sold when I did. Now I'm down from 8 + weeks to 2 because renting is MUCH easier than trades and cheaper than ownership by a huge margin. Yet another reason why resale prices are on a steady march to zero.


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## ronparise (Nov 6, 2012)

BocaBoy said:


> That is certainly an overstatement.  I am not suggesting that rental value compared to maintenance fees is not a relevant factor.  It clearly is and it is important.  But there is so much more than that.  This includes factors such as easier access to the weeks you want every year (and without the significant effort and risk of dealing with unknown third parties on your rentals), the ability to trade (don't forget XYZs) and to purchase Getaways through II, the flexibility to convert weeks to DC points, etc.  Many people also simply like the concept of vacation ownership.  Never make the mistake of thinking that all people (including fully informed people) value things the same way you do.



You are  right to question my timeshare valuation formula. It is simplistic, but its also objective. Ive tried to squeeze any subjectivity out of it. And it doesnt work for the guy for whom money is no object. 

 Im not trying to compare owning a timeshare with renting a condo or hotel suite. Im using rentals to compare the dollar value of owning one timeshare against another timeshare. 

The very fact that we are both on this forum tells me that we both agree owning our vacations, secure in the knowledge we can go where we want when we want and also have the flexibility to trade out if we want is something worth paying for. The question is how much to pay (if anything)

The factors you mention are common to a lot of timeshares. so you might conclude that all timeshare are of equal value.    They dont help me calculate the value of one timeshare against another


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## ronparise (Nov 6, 2012)

BarbS said:


> I prefer to not to take any advice on Marriott timeshares from someone who does not own any Marriotts.  Are your non-Marriotts worth zero too?




There no advice been given here. only an estimate of value. 

No one is telling you to buy or sell or to do anything with that estimate

I was cleaning out the garage recently and came across  a box i thought was lost in my last move. In it were the size zero tennis shoes that my son wore 35 years ago.   The look on my wife's face when I showed her what I had found was worth a million dollars to me.  But I dont fool myself into thinking I can take that look, or the shoes, to the bank.


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## bogey21 (Nov 6, 2012)

BarbS said:


> I prefer to not to take any advice on Marriott timeshares from someone who does not own any Marriotts.



How about advice from someone who used to own 4 Marriott Weeks, 3 of which were purchased from Marriott, and who had the foresight to sell them all at an overall net profit?  That's me, and I think John is dead right.

George


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## thinze3 (Nov 7, 2012)

BarbS said:


> None of the gold/platinum (and some silver) oceanfront Marriott weeks will ever be worth zero.



I have watched Westin Ka'anapali resales for years and have seen the 'deluxe' 2BR units fall to almost zero because of the high MF's (now over $2900/yr).  The ONLY deluxe units with any value now are the OF units, and if fees keep going up higher than rental values, they too will become worthless.  

Please understand what I am saying.  WKORV is platinum 52 weeks a year and is one of the most premier timeshares in the world, and it too now has some 2BR units that are nearly worthless.  The same can happen to ANY resort.


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## hvsmith2 (Nov 7, 2012)

thinze3 said:


> I have watched Westin Ka'anapali resales for years and have seen the 'deluxe' 2BR units fall to almost zero because of the high MF's (now over $2900/yr).  The ONLY deluxe units with any value now are the OF units, and if fees keep going up higher than rental values, they too will become worthless.
> 
> Please understand what I am saying.  WKORV is platinum 52 weeks a year and is one of the most premier timeshares in the world, and it too now has some 2BR units that are nearly worthless.  The same can happen to ANY resort.



Has anyone here on TUG made an effort to objectively model the resale market for particular types of timeshare ?  I am just getting to grips myself with the factors which impact on it.  And of course wishing I had done so at the time I originally bought weeks off Marriott !

There could be some pretty interesting topics for an economics thesis in here!  Highly opaque markets, asymmetric information, properties clearly do not have the same value to all possible owners.  Individual buyers and sellers can have widely diverging needs and priorities.  Transaction costs are high.

Throw in influence from the real economy, regulation, and all kinds of factors affecting particular properties and it's a very complex area.

One thing that strikes me [with hindsight !] is that no matter what one's priorities and preferences are, it is impossible to know what will transpire over a 50 year period so it's amazing anyone buys such a product.


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## timeos2 (Nov 7, 2012)

hvsmith2 said:


> One thing that strikes me [with hindsight !] is that no matter what one's priorities and preferences are, it is impossible to know what will transpire over a 50 year period so it's amazing anyone buys such a product.



Very little timeshare would be sold - and virtually none at the super inflated prices that developers ask - if all consumers understood what they are actually buying. All sales - including even the cleanest & best such as Marriott & DVC - seriously stretch the truth and purposely distort the product to make the uninformed believe it is something it is not (such as an "investment" in a slice of real estate that will appreciate in value when they know it is overpriced by 50% or more and could NEVER increase over original purchase cost. They can't / usually won't say those words - investment or appreciation - but they twist it so that is what  the unknowing buyer walks away thinking they own. If thy don't join a group discussion like TUG then they may actually continue to believe that for years - until reality hits when THEY actually try to sell.

Sold as what it really is and the true costs reveled the purchase price and the expectations would be totally different & realistic. There would also be far fewer resorts and owners as the true market is extremely small.  That isn't the model and we're paying an unprecedented price now as owners who "bought the dream". For far too many that got the dog weeks or for which fees have become prohibitive and find there is no resale market the dream eventually becomes a nightmare. It didn't have to be that way but now it is and we have to deal with it. All timeshares are at eventual risk of having zero resale value even if they aren't there yet. The very fine Marriott's are not an exception.


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 7, 2012)

BarbS said:


> I've never seen an OW OF silver week go for $1......and I've been looking for quite a while.  Are you sure it wasn't a Bronze week?  Silver season at OW includes the last 2 weeks in September and all of October, which IMO is much preferable to silver season at Grande Ocean or Barony because their silver seasons don't start until the first week in November.



The ebay ad said fixed week 40 Oct 5 2013 check-in, which I knew was inaccurate so I assumed it meant the deed had week 40 on it which is a silver week. 

I asked for clarification and never received so maybe it was a bronze. I should have bid and when given the documentation to confirm I could have walked away if wrong. 

I think I maybe missed one here.


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## csxjohn (Nov 7, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> The ebay ad said fixed week 40 Oct 5 2013 check-in, which I knew was inaccurate so I assumed it meant the deed had week 40 on it which is a silver week.
> 
> I asked for clarification and never received so maybe it was a bronze. I should have bid and when given the documentation to confirm I could have walked away if wrong.
> 
> I think I maybe missed one here.



This appears to be accurate. A Saturday check in, week 40, 2013, is Oct 5, according to the TUG planning calendar found in the Market Place.


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## AwayWeGo (Nov 7, 2012)

*You Typed A Mouthful.*




timeos2 said:


> All sales - including even the cleanest & best such as Marriott & DVC - seriously stretch the truth and purposely distort the product to make the uninformed believe it is something it is not (such as an "investment" in a slice of real estate that will appreciate in value when they know it is overpriced by 50% or more and could NEVER increase over original purchase cost. They can't / usually won't say those words - investment or appreciation - but they twist it so that is what  the unknowing buyer walks away thinking they own.


The ability to plant ideas in the customers' minds without actually saying the exact words is a key part of the full-freight timeshare sellers' M.O. -- not just that buying a timeshare is an investment, but (for example) that owners can exchange their units whenever they want for anything shown in the pages of the I-I & RCI resort catalogs, etc.  

The full-freight sellers also point to increases in their retail selling prices as indicators of what buyers can expect for the future value of their overpriced units.  Plus, they notoriously plant the idea that by buying _now-now-now_ the full-freight customers not only beat future price increases but also lock in the cost of future vacation accommodations at today's prices -- a bald-face piece of bogusness in that acquisition costs of timeshares (high or low or in the middle, or even free) mean zippity-doodah with regard to the ever-rising annual maintenance fees that are the true cost of timeshare vacationing.

Timeshares, fun & important as they are to the likes of us TUG people, are overall so small & unimportant that the timeshare companies mostly fly under the regulatory radar.  About the only consumer protection is the mandatory cooling off period, during which the timeshare sellers hold their breath & cross their fingers while hoping the full-freight purchasers don't get wise & rescind while there's still time.  As it happens, not many buyers catch on before it's too late.  



timeos2 said:


> Sold as what it really is and the true costs reveled the purchase price and the expectations would be totally different & realistic. There would also be far fewer resorts and owners as the true market is extremely small.  That isn't the model and we're paying an unprecedented price now as owners who "bought the dream". For far too many that got the dog weeks or for which fees have become prohibitive and find there is no resale market the dream eventually becomes a nightmare. It didn't have to be that way but now it is and we have to deal with it. All timeshares are at eventual risk of having zero resale value even if they aren't there yet. The very fine Marriott's are not an exception.


Just 1 more illustration of why the timeshare biz needs to be revolutionized along the lines of Wal-Mart for developer sales & along the lines of CarMax for resales -- a sorely needed revamping that won't be happening any time soon, if ever.  

So it goes. 

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## hvsmith2 (Nov 7, 2012)

AwayWeGo said:


> The ability to plant ideas in the customers' minds without actually saying the exact words is a key part of the full-freight timeshare sellers' M.O. -- not just that buying a timeshare is an investment, but (for example) that owners can exchange their units whenever they want for anything shown in the pages of the I-I & RCI resort catalogs, etc.  -- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​



That's right ... I would say that I wasn't lied to, but I was badly misled !


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## hvsmith2 (Nov 7, 2012)

AwayWeGo said:


> in that acquisition costs of timeshares (high or low or in the middle, or even free) mean zippity-doodah with regard to the ever-rising annual maintenance fees that are the true cost of timeshare vacationing.
> -- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​[/FONT][/SIZE]



I am still puzzling over how I did not really "see" this at the time.  Again, it's not like they didn't state the information, but "mis-direction" gets the job done I suppose for the salesman.


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## Kagehitokiri2 (Nov 7, 2012)

the business model for most TS is to rip off initial buyer

in terms of theoretical model (not TS) >
maintenance costs less than lease
but you need insurance to prevent loss


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 7, 2012)

csxjohn said:


> This appears to be accurate. A Saturday check in, week 40, 2013, is Oct 5, according to the TUG planning calendar found in the Market Place.



Yes the check-in date matches for a week 40 but its obviously not a fixed week because those weren't sold at MOW except for July 4th so I assumed it was a silver.

Back to my original question, why isn't a silver MOW more in demand. 

Early Oct still must be nice in Myrtle Beach no?


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## GregT (Nov 7, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Don't honestly know. They may be worth $3000 -$4000 based on sales I've seen but I assume when the day comes that I'm ready to part with them it will be zero. If I get more halleluiah!  To assume they have a value is a false hope. Until the sale is finalized assume nothing and you'll never be disappointed.
> 
> Want a gauge of value? Ask any bankruptcy attorney what ANY timeshare is worth. Any one. The answer, by the way, is ZERO. They are an extremely illiquid holding, not asset, with ongoing expenses that cannot be sold quickly for any value.
> 
> ...



John,

We've heard your comments before repeatedly.  I'm not sure why you feel the negativity is helpful (and what did we say that solicited your repeated opinions?).

I disagree that a bankruptcy attorney will tell me that all timeshares have No value.   I do not believe my fixed Week 25 3BR at MOC is worthless.  I have no idea what it is worth, but it is worth more than $5k.  So is the Week 24.  And so is the 2BR OF.

Terry's point about declining value of Deluxe 2BR's at WKORV is a good one -- and much more insightful than repeating the same comments about how timeshares are worthless and we should just rent.

Telling us the "Truth Hurts" is a [censored] comment.   This is only your opinion.  You've made your points, let it go.   I tend to agree with you that few timeshares are worth more than $5,000 -- *but the ones that are, are owned by people on this board*.   

Why provoke them?

Best,

Greg


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## timeos2 (Nov 7, 2012)

GregT said:


> John,
> 
> We've heard your comments before repeatedly.  I'm not sure why you feel the negativity is helpful (and what did we say that solicited your repeated opinions?).
> 
> ...



Only because they perpetrate the idea that they will continue to hold value at or above $5000. The simple facts say they will not. Those weeks are not immune to the market that has been in an increasing decline. Yes they may have value today but to assume that will be true in a year or five is wishful thinking. 

As for bk value their view is anything that can't be easily sold in 60-90 days for good dollars is worthless as are holding with ongoing fees. Gee, guess what fits that?


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## AwayWeGo (Nov 7, 2012)

*I Resemble That Remark.*




GregT said:


> We've heard your comments before repeatedly.


Positive or negative is _mox nix_. 

The criteria are accuracy & relevance. 

As to the repeatedly issue, what's wrong that ?  (Nothing.)

_Full Disclosure*:*_  I repeat myself frequently -- repeatedly -- on TUG-BBS.  (There's no such thing as a new timeshare.  Buy resale & save thousands.  If their lips are moving, chances are they're fibbing.  Nothing that the timeshare companies sell at full freight is worth the money.  Razzle-dazzle & ballyhoo.  Hornswoggle & bamboozle.  Rescinda-sinda-sinda.  Etc.)  Hardly a new or original observation ever comes off my computer.  So what ?

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## csxjohn (Nov 7, 2012)

AwayWeGo said:


> Positive or negative is _mox nix_.
> 
> The criteria are accuracy & relevance.
> 
> ...



You're starting to sound like Judge Alvin 'J.P' Valkenheiser in Nothing But Trouble. (That's not a bad thing)


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## TheTimeTraveler (Nov 7, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> Yes the check-in date matches for a week 40 but its obviously not a fixed week because those weren't sold at MOW except for July 4th so I assumed it was a silver.
> 
> Back to my original question, why isn't a silver MOW more in demand.
> 
> Early Oct still must be nice in Myrtle Beach no?






One always has to worry about Hurricanes at that that time of year......




.


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## Kagehitokiri2 (Nov 7, 2012)

*timeos2*, most markets including TS have a top segment, at the very top, which represents the most luxurious segment of that market, and is completely separate from other lower level segments of the same market.


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## jont (Nov 7, 2012)

AwayWeGo said:


> Positive or negative is _mox nix_.
> 
> The criteria are accuracy & relevance.
> 
> ...



No matter how many times you say it Alan, I still find it funny, and true! :hysterical:


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## BocaBoy (Nov 7, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> .....you cannot depend on anything but zero resale value. *30 years+ of timeshare history says its a fact. *Ignore history at your own risk.



Too much of this discussion assumes the past 30 years have been the same as the last 4 years.  Until the 2008 economic meltdown the market was much different.  It may improve again in the future.  I expect that this will occur but not for a long time.  However, just for historical perspective (and not to claim it can still be done today), I have sold 3 Marriott timeshares in recent years.  All were purchased at developer prices and all were sold at a profit: Waiohai OV bought in 2007 and sold in 2010; Sabal Palms Red bought 1987 and sold in 2011; another Sabal Palms Red bought through Marriott Resales in 2001 and sold in 2009.  My point is that the resale market for MVCI timeshares changed dramatically 4 years ago.  Before that the economics were very different.


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## GregT (Nov 7, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Only because they perpetrate the idea that they will continue to hold value at or above $5000. The simple facts say they will not. Those weeks are not immune to the market that has been in an increasing decline. Yes they may have value today but to assume that will be true in a year or five is wishful thinking.
> 
> As for bk value their view is anything that can't be easily sold in 60-90 days for good dollars is worthless as are holding with ongoing fees. Gee, guess what fits that?



John,

This is your opinion, not a fact.   Your response suggests that you think it's okay to provoke Marriott owners because they disagree that their weeks are worthless. 

1) it is not wishful thinking that the good timeshares will have value in a year or five.  
2) BK attorneys dont think that things that can be sold on eBay are worthless.   

These are your opinions, not facts.  

Your dogmatic campaign against Marriott ownership  is concerning, and it is bad for the Marriott community to have a vocal moderator that is so argumentative and negative to the community.  Your basic position is thought provoking - I've agreed with that - but it has taken on the appearance of a personal agenda.   

I would suggest that we move on.  I will continue to object to your posts when i believe they are purely argumentative.   I do not understand what is motivating you, and will hope for fewer clashes in the future. 

Best,

Greg


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## hvsmith2 (Nov 8, 2012)

BocaBoy said:


> Too much of this discussion assumes the past 30 years have been the same as the last 4 years.  Until the 2008 economic meltdown the market was much different.  It may improve again in the future.  I expect that this will occur but not for a long time.  However, just for historical perspective (and not to claim it can still be done today), I have sold 3 Marriott timeshares in recent years.  All were purchased at developer prices and all were sold at a profit: Waiohai OV bought in 2007 and sold in 2010; Sabal Palms Red bought 1987 and sold in 2011; another Sabal Palms Red bought through Marriott Resales in 2001 and sold in 2009.  My point is that the resale market for MVCI timeshares changed dramatically 4 years ago.  Before that the economics were very different.



This is an interesting perspective BocaBoy - thanks for sharing.  It actually serves to make me feel less of a chump in buying my weeks in the first place, even though that does not actually help any in terms of being able to sell them !

We indeed bought in 2008 - in Spain just before an an economic hurricane blew through.  As you allude to, the economics of many markets changed incredibly at that point, and may never revert.

I also think you may well be right to say that over time, things could improve.  For myself, for example, I can't wait around to find out.  When I say "can't" there is a lot of "won't" and "don't want to " in there.  The cost of ownership is high in terms of MFs and the risk that things could get worse still.

I think of the "value" of a Marriott week as the sum of a lot of options - the option to occupy, the option to exchange, the option to lock off, the option to share the facilities with family, the option to rent or cash in for points and so on.

To some owners, these options are very valuable especially when owners are experienced & knowledgeable.  For someone like me, I don't have the time or the motivation to work the system and those possibilities are wasted.

It's absolutely apparent to me that the value of my particular week is much less in my hands than in the hands of a different owner.  That isn't a contradiction.  The actual resale value is another thing again and it's a buyers' market to put it mildly...


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## hvsmith2 (Nov 8, 2012)

GregT said:


> * {@ timeos2}*
> I would suggest that we move on.  I will continue to object to your posts when i believe they are purely argumentative.   I do not understand what is motivating you, and will hope for fewer clashes in the future.
> 
> Best,
> ...



Can I just say - as a relatively new member of the forum - that I have been very impressed by the good manners and high quality of all the content - even where there is grave disagreement.  It's a credit to the community and I daresay to conscientious forum administration and moderation.  

As people will know, this state of the world is not easy to achieve on the internet !


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## BocaBoy (Nov 8, 2012)

GregT said:


> John,
> 
> This is your opinion, not a fact.   Your response suggests that you think it's okay to provoke Marriott owners because they disagree that their weeks are worthless.
> 
> ...



I agree 100%.


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## SueDonJ (Nov 8, 2012)

A request was made for moderators to look over this thread.  IMO as the Marriott board mod, I can't see that any of the posts are against the TUG rules but I will continue to watch closely to make sure that the discussion remains both civil and centered on the topic.

However, IMO as a Marriott owner, I completely agree with Greg's thoughts here and have had similar discussions with John and others over the years.  The facts are, there are many certain Marriott Weeks which defy the premise that almost every timeshare is or will eventually be worth less than $5K.  I've found that the best way to prove that the premise may not be applicable, is to repeat just as often our own personal knowledge as Marriott owners.

IMO as both a mod and a Marriott owner I also question why John, a non-Owner, seems to bring his premise far more often to the Marriott board than to any of the others such as Starwood where there are also many Weeks which defy his premise.  I do believe that when/if anybody - but especially a TUG moderator - chooses to visit a board as a non-Owner to further a personal premise/agenda, s/he should make it very clear that s/he is sharing a personal opinion as a non-Owner.  But that's not a TUG rule which means it cannot be enforced.

As always, if you have a problem with a particular post, please click on the triangle icon over there <--- and every moderator will receive your report.


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## ronparise (Nov 8, 2012)

SueDonJ said:


> A request was made for moderators to look over this thread.  IMO as the Marriott board mod, I can't see that any of the posts are against the TUG rules but I will continue to watch closely to make sure that the discussion remains both civil and centered on the topic.
> 
> However, IMO as a Marriott owner, I completely agree with Greg's thoughts here and have had similar discussions with John and others over the years.  The facts are, there are many certain Marriott Weeks which defy the premise that almost every timeshare is or will eventually be worth less than $5K.  I've found that the best way to prove that the premise may not be applicable, is to repeat just as often our own personal knowledge as Marriott owners.
> 
> ...



Although I havent counted the times that John has said that Timeshares generally have no value, or checked to see where he has said it the most, I think that John brings his views to the Marriott board any more than any of the other boards here on TUG...

What I see is that Marriott owners generally dont care to accept the facts. and of course neither does John

To Johns point; Marriott timeshares are not worth any more than any other timeshare and almost always less than $5000 and thats a fact

To the point of several Marriott owners here;   There are people willing to pay more than $5000 and more than $1200 a year for the right to use Marriott  condos a week at a time.  While that defies all logic...thats a fact too

And if everyone is right, then there must be a business opportunity here.. Buy Marriotts on ebay and sell them on TUG


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## hvsmith2 (Nov 8, 2012)

As a Marriott owner who is looking to sell (and is definitely going to sell, for personal reasons unrelated to what I may feel/wish/hope is true "value" or "worth"), I do find all these opinions interesting and useful - thanks.

I also find the market for resales to be utterly perplexing (the more I learn, the less I understand).

I note that when I advertised my Gold 3bed for $5k, I received no enquiries at all on the marketplace here, and only 1 enquiry over at Redweek.

A possible conclusion is that these weeks are not massively undervalued at $5k from a resale perspective.

I have had some conversations with some resellers in the UK (both of whom I believe to be reputable and credible) and they differ strikingly in their assessment of the actual market - one says that $5k is the top end of sales that are happening;  the other says about $10k is easily achievable and that they have actually achieved that in the past month.

I suppose it is possible that they are both telling the truth - the lack of transparency allows for that I think.

BTW Marriott got back to me today to advise that the updated list price is $41k.  So the good news is that on paper I am actually doing better than when I bought them (LOL) - it's just unfortunate that Marriott's buy back price is not even $0 ! 

You'd think they might feel a little embarrassed by this ....


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## EKniager (Nov 8, 2012)

ronparise said:


> Although I havent counted the times that John has said that Timeshares generally have no value, or checked to see where he has said it the most, I think that John brings his views to the Marriott board any more than any of the other boards here on TUG...
> 
> What I see is that Marriott owners generally dont care to accept the facts. and of course neither does John
> 
> ...



I would suggest that they are worth... what someone is willing to pay for them.

Also, I know plenty of retired folks buying 1-2% rate CD's.  They could buy an Aruba Surf Club for $15K, pay $1,400 per year in MF's and rent for $3,000 per year for a pre-tax net of $1,600 on their $15K investment.  That looks like a better return to me.


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## ronparise (Nov 8, 2012)

EKniager said:


> I would suggest that they are worth... what someone is willing to pay for them.
> 
> Also, I know plenty of retired folks buying 1-2% rate CD's.  They could buy an Aruba Surf Club for $15K, pay $1,400 per year in MF's and rent for $3,000 per year for a pre-tax net of $1,600 on their $15K investment.  That looks like a better return to me.



10% return is a great number  compared to a 2% CD, but a terrible return in the uncertain world of vacation rentals.

Im doing exactly what you suggest.  I buy timeshares I think I can rent for twice mf...but Im doing it with timeshares that cost a whole lot less than your $15000 and even less than John's $5000 number.  a return on investment is meaningless because my cost basis is so low. I look at profit (income/expenses)


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## csxjohn (Nov 8, 2012)

ronparise said:


> 10% return is a great number  compared to a 2% CD, but a terrible return in the uncertain world of vacation rentals.
> 
> Im doing exactly what you suggest.  I buy timeshares I think I can rent for twice mf...but Im doing it with timeshares that cost a whole lot less than your $15000 and even less than John's $5000 number.  a return on investment is meaningless because my cost basis is so low. I look at profit (income/expenses)



You plan things out and use caution and you would not risk $15,000 to potentially make $1,600 gross.  One good hurricane and the rental market won't look so sweet.  You do it with bargain basement purchases and I think you're doing pretty well.  

Many of us don't have your knowledge, expertise or time.  That is why the CD is very attractive to many of us.


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 8, 2012)

If John would correct his rhetoric to say "Aside from many plat and some gold Marriott weeks..."  I would tend to agree with his comments. 

In my estimation there are over 25 Marriott plat 2 BDRM weeks that are over $5k and I believe always will be. These are mostly OF resorts and there will always be a demand for a Maui or Aruba Marriott

His failure to acknowledge that Marriott has many weeks like these that don't follow his logic is where I think he is way off base.


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 8, 2012)

csxjohn said:


> You plan things out and use caution and you would not risk $15,000 to potentially make $1,600 gross.  One good hurricane and the rental market won't look so sweet.  You do it with bargain basement purchases and I think you're doing pretty well.
> 
> Many of us don't have your knowledge, expertise or time.  That is why the CD is very attractive to many of us.



Here's the thing, with Marriott there isn't much of a risk even if you spend $15k for  Maui or Aruba 2BDRM unit. And so easy to rent for big profit simply using Redweek.

First off you can't live your life worrying about hurricanes or you're going to miss out on a lot.

Ron it would appear has a good thing going so I applaud him as well but I certainly wouldn't dismiss how easy and profitable renting select Marriotts can be.

With Marriott you have name brand recognition that translates into high demand from high paying clientele.

I speak from 10 years of experience renting easily even through the economic downturn because there will always be someone looking for a Maui Marriott 2BDRM unit or similar during prime season.

And if you bought resale in the last 5 years you're get most if not all of your money back if you needed to sell for some reason.

I bought  an EOY Maui 2BRM for $8500 3 years ago and every year 2BDRM OF for $21k 5 years ago and both have retained their value in my estimation.


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## MALC9990 (Nov 9, 2012)

hvsmith2 said:


> As a Marriott owner who is looking to sell (and is definitely going to sell, for personal reasons unrelated to what I may feel/wish/hope is true "value" or "worth"), I do find all these opinions interesting and useful - thanks.
> 
> I also find the market for resales to be utterly perplexing (the more I learn, the less I understand).
> 
> ...



I think the first thing any European owner of a Marriott Timeshare and contributor here should bear in mind is that the vast majority of contributors to this forum (Marriott) will be Americans (USA). Pretty obvious since the majority of Marriott TS properties are in the USA and Caribbean and so most owners will be American. TUG is American oriented - this is not a criticism - just a statement of fact. Sites like Redweek likewise are oriented heavily towards the US Timeshare market. 

What owners and TUG members in Europe with European resorts should remember is that we are not necessarily suffering the same issues with resale prices as are prevalent in the USA and where we do experience those problems they are less severe than in the USA. There is a big difference between the USA and Europe as far as the impact that the poor economic situation is having. if you exclude Greece what you see in Europe is not as severe in reality as perhaps it might seem. Even in Spain, where unemployment is quoted as 25% - in reality many of those in that 25% are working - just not officially working.

Vacation time entitlement in Europe is generally much greater, this has an impact. 

There are only 4 Marriott resorts in Europe - this has an impact on supply vs demand. 

The population of Europe is larger than the USA - another impact of Demand vs Supply.

If you lose your job in Europe, social security support is much more generous than is perhaps the casein the USA.

EBAY has little if any penetration of the TS resale market compared to the USA. I personally have been a user of EBAY (buying and selling) for nearly 10 years - I would not even consider selling any of my TS units on EBAY nor would I buy via EBAY (not that I need any more TS weeks).

So from my perspective, looking at EBAY and places like REDWEEK when trying to sell a European Marriott week is really only of minor interest.  EBAY is where the desperate go to sell and where the bargain hunters go to buy. As some have said here in the past - EBAY is the fire sale location for TS weeks. It seems to be where the PCC scammers go to offload weeks that someone paid them to take - which in fact they probably did not actually transfer anyway.

That a European weeks owner who probably spent in excess of $80,000 only 4 years ago should be looking at selling on Redweek and/or EBAY and not for financial reasons but because he/she finds it all too difficult to manage the TS system, is just so sad. I have spent somewhat more than that over the lifetime of my Marriott ownership and selling out is just not a consideration in any circumstance other than total financial collapse (hopeful not likely) or severe ill health impacting my ability to travel (hopefully that will not occur any time soon). TS vacations are now a major part of our life and we spend a lot of time planning vacations and get a lot of enjoyment from just doing the planning.

I don't consider my timeshares as any sort of financial investment. In my financial planning the timeshare weeks and points are valued at zero. They are included as an annual cost for MFs. Psychologically this is easier to do since they are all RTU weeks and so there is no sense of "property ownership" here. So it is not like I feel I own a slice of some real estate at all. I bought the right to use a week at a resort for a specific period of time, after which the right ends and it is finished.

So my view is that there is a different market for resale weeks at the European Marriott resorts. There is much less supply and a potential demand from across Europe where some countries economies may not be booming, they are still quite healthy e.g. Germany. The Marriott reputation for quality is global but the European supply of resale weeks is limited and the potential market is pan-European and in fact stretches to places like the middle east.

All of these factors support the market in Europe for Marriott Resales and thus prices do seem to be higher than seem to be prevalent in the USA.

So my advice to a European weeks owner looking to sell would be to ignore Redweek and EBAY - focus on finding a reliable and genuine resale agent and if Marriott do make you an offer (which might be on the cards for owners at Son Antem) then compare it to what the resale broker(s) have been saying and selling at and then make a decision.


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## hvsmith2 (Nov 9, 2012)

MALC9990 said:


> I think the first thing any European owner of a Marriott Timeshare and contributor here should bear in mind is that the vast majority of contributors to this forum (Marriott) will be Americans (USA).
> 
> etc...
> 
> .




Thanks for this really thoughtful post.


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## dioxide45 (Nov 9, 2012)

BocaBoy said:


> I think it is a little hard for people to have it both ways.  I frequently read here about how the MVCI timeshares are worth close to nothing and that the true market is found on EBay (*which BTW I don't agree with--I view EBay as more like the foreclosure market*).  Then when MVCI offers a price higher than that market, I read that it is an insulting offer.  I personally believe that MVCI's buy back offers are normally higher than what can be found elsewhere, and the ease and security of selling back to MVCI is also worth something.  It is, after all, an offer that can be either accepted or rejected.



The thing is though that often the foreclosure market sets the price for the rest of the market. If five or six homes in a neighborhood sell at a foreclosure sale, those sales often drive the price of all other homes in that area down. So in a sense Ebay helps to set a market price.

I do agree that if someone wants to sell and are truely interested in selling, accepting a Marriott buyback or resale offer is usually the best price they will get for the least effort.


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## csxjohn (Nov 9, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> Here's the thing, with Marriott there isn't much of a risk even if you spend $15k for  Maui or Aruba 2BDRM unit. And so easy to rent for big profit simply using Redweek.
> 
> First off you can't live your life worrying about hurricanes or you're going to miss out on a lot.
> 
> ...



I guess my main point was that what is easy for you and Ron to do is not as easy for others.  

I have to admit that in following Ron's adventures, I think that he is doing it right.


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## ronparise (Nov 9, 2012)

csxjohn said:


> I guess my main point was that what is easy for you and Ron to do is not as easy for others.
> 
> I have to admit that in following Ron's adventures, I think that he is doing it right.



And of course so is Joe doing it right. and its not easy....

The difference is I have to do more of it than Joe for the same results, and Joe has an exit plan. No matter what John and I might say about the value of timeshares generally, the value of the marriotts that Joe owns are holding their value (I would argue because of the rental income they generate) If and when Joe decides to sell out, he can; easily.  As I am currently organized (disorganized, my wife would say) when its time for me to sell out I will have a problem, or my heirs will. Actually its Wyndham and the hoas, that will have a problem. When the income stops flowing, so will the maintenance fees

But back to the op. The original post here is titled,    *they can't be serious! [Ocean Watch resale]*..... I think the comments have shown that they are serious. and I dont think anyone has shown that the value of the ops timeshare is worth any more than Marriott offered. Its not one of the exceptions that John acknowledges are out there.

I think this points out a truth that we are all aware of, but often forget...It doesnt matter what the market is if you are not a buyer or a seller.


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## timeos2 (Nov 9, 2012)

Great summary Ron. 

If in fact my posts appear here more often than say the Starwood and/or DVC forums (or others that somehow feel that brand is immune to the market) - where the denial rates are just as high until an individual tries to "cash in" and discovers the truth about "value" - it's because it comes up more here. I hardly ever start a thread but do monitor any "new post" and, if it meets my watch list of topics, often reply. 

The very fact that it does come up so often on this particular forum shows there is an uneasiness among the participants about what they want to believe is the resale value of their week(s).  That uncertainty is well supported by market realities. And every fees increase makes whatever resale value is there go down. Reality good people. It doesn't care what you think things are worth.

An uncle of mine used to sum it up with a great philosophy:

"When I'm buying they want top dollar but when I'm selling they want me to give it away".  Never has that idea been more applicable than in timeshares.


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## AwayWeGo (Nov 9, 2012)

*Philosophy Is As Philosophy Does -- & It's Not Just Timeshares.*




timeos2 said:


> "When I'm buying they want top dollar but when I'm selling they want me to give it away".  Never has that idea been more applicable than in timeshares.


Click here for a 1973 song parody reflecting similar philosophy as applied to agriculture & banking at the time. 

I claim no expert knowledge, but I can't avoid a suspicion that confronting the market realities of timeshare values has a more disgruntling effect on people who own at the high-end timeshares than on us peons who own _el cheapo_ resales snagged off the internet.  (Just guessing.)

_Note*:*_ The linked item contains a hyperlink that has gone defunct (because the web page migrated to another organization's servers).  Click here for the replacement updated hyperlink.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## MALC9990 (Nov 9, 2012)

*In Denial ?*

I don't think any regular contributor or even lurkers on this forum is in denial of the price that their Marriott TS week(s) would sell for on the resale market. You would have to be pretty dumb not to have got the message after a few weeks on this forum.

It is however a topic of general interest - I am sure we would all wish the resale proces would increase but it is really only when I talk with other owners who have not heard of TUG that I come across people who are unaware of the realities of the market place.

EBAY in the UK does not even have a category for timeshares under property (real estate on EBAY.COM) it is included in Holidays/accommodation as a minor category. Mostly the listing are either people or agents with a week to rent or resale brokers/agents using it as a place to advertise what they have listed on thier books to attract potential buyers.

Almost every listing is a buy it now - not even an auction listing.

So I think it is safe to say that on EBAY.CO.UK there are no desperate Marriott owners trying to sell at fire sale prices.


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## SueDonJ (Nov 9, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Great summary Ron.
> 
> If in fact my posts appear here more often than say the Starwood and/or DVC forums (or others that somehow feel that brand is immune to the market) - where the denial rates are just as high until an individual tries to "cash in" and discovers the truth about "value" - it's because it comes up more here. I hardly ever start a thread but do monitor any "new post" and, if it meets my watch list of topics, often reply.
> 
> ...



I think the reason the topic comes up so often on this board is because there are proportionally more Marriott Weeks/Owners compared to the companies represented by other boards.  It's simply a numbers game and has nothing to do with the Marriott Owners who regularly participate on this board being in denial as to the financial value of their ownerships.  As a group we know better than anyone how much value to expect on the resale markets and we're not shy about telling anyone who asks just how devalued many Marriott Weeks are.  But as a group we also know better than anyone which certain Marriott Weeks are not as severely depressed as others, and we know that there are many more of those than what a non-Owner may expect based on factors that aren't particular to Marriott Weeks.

When a new poster comes here and asks for specifics about the financial value of his/her Marriott Weeks, as both the TUG Marriott mod and a Marriott Owner I would prefer that TUGgers give that poster as accurate a picture as possible.  Blanket statements such as "no timeshare is ever worth more than $5K" and, "most can be had for $1 on eBay," are simply not helpful.  It is also not helpful when every single thread related to the question turns into the Marriott Owners having to defend against certain statements made by non-Owners which have been proven incorrect in certain instances a number of times.  What does the new poster gain from that other than total confusion?  S/he's certainly not getting an accurate answer to the question, that's for sure.  TUG certainly doesn't earn any stars for being a nice to place to visit, not when the new posters are greeted with that confusion as well as what appears to be petty bickering and agendas among the regulars.


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## suzannesimon (Nov 9, 2012)

MALC9990 said:


> I think the first thing any European owner of a Marriott Timeshare and contributor here should bear in mind is that the vast majority of contributors to this forum (Marriott) will be Americans (USA). Pretty obvious since the majority of Marriott TS properties are in the USA and Caribbean and so most owners will be American. TUG is American oriented - this is not a criticism - just a statement of fact. Sites like Redweek likewise are oriented heavily towards the US Timeshare market.
> 
> What owners and TUG members in Europe with European resorts should remember is that we are not necessarily suffering the same issues with resale prices as are prevalent in the USA and where we do experience those problems they are less severe than in the USA. There is a big difference between the USA and Europe as far as the impact that the poor economic situation is having. if you exclude Greece what you see in Europe is not as severe in reality as perhaps it might seem. Even in Spain, where unemployment is quoted as 25% - in reality many of those in that 25% are working - just not officially working.
> 
> ...




Well said.  I don't expect to make money on my timeshares, but if I can get my purchase price + maintenance fees back in market rent usage for myself or market rate rental income over the years, then I'll be happy.  I purchased 2Marriott timeshares (prime weeks) in 2008 at retail prices and I have recovered almost 1/3 of the cost.  After joining TUG, I am doing better at this.  I made some huge mistakes the first couple years trading them in II for cheaper weeks or converting them to MRP.  Now I know to use them, rent them or convert them to Destination Club points instead of trading them unless I can get a comparable property/size in the trade.  Mine are not lock-offs, so that is an option I don't have.

EBay has some great deals, but I bought a resale Hyatt on Redweek last year because it was the place I wanted and the week I wanted plus it's a lock-off.  I'm sure I paid too much, but I would have probably waited forever for it to come up on EBay.  Excellent small complexes in prime weeks/locations are not usually seen on EBay because there is a limited quantity of them.  I assume the owners have better luck on Redweek and so they don't ever show up on Ebay.

I'm thrilled with my timeshares.  I have 2 full-ownership vacation properties and I rarely go to them because I have more fun playing with the timeshares and all the options.


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## timeos2 (Nov 9, 2012)

Most of the new comers do not own any of the very limited number of times that exceed the typical maximum value. The few that may can be quizzed & the occasional exception told they currently may be lucky but it isn't likely to hold at that level long. 

The majority are looking for answers because they have already discovered the low to no value & teasing them with tempting numbers based on something they likely don't own is almost cruel. We can always say hey your one week might have more value but for the vast majority the facts are they will be lucky to find a taker and will net little or nothing of what they paid. 

Simply saying it may be a Marriott does NOT automatically change the facts of most ownerships. Denial still persists and doesn't help new comers but rather is what confuses them over why they can't get much out of any sale.


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## SueDonJ (Nov 9, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Most of the new comers do not own any of the very limited number of times that exceed the typical maximum value. The few that may can be quizzed & the occasional exception told they currently may be lucky but it isn't likely to hold at that level long.
> 
> The majority are looking for answers because they have already discovered the low to no value & teasing them with tempting numbers based on something they likely don't own is almost cruel. We can always say hey your one week might have more value but for the vast majority the facts are they will be lucky to find a taker and will net little or nothing of what they paid.
> 
> Simply saying it may be a Marriott does NOT automatically change the facts of most ownerships. Denial still persists and doesn't help new comers but rather is what confuses them over why they can't get much out of any sale.



(Not speaking as the board mod here) -

John, I'd like to propose a truce because in my experience we regulars here don't cruelly tease or tempt anyone with unrealistic expectations about the resale values of Marriott Weeks, and quite frankly I'm insulted that you think so little of our contributions to TUG.  I'm asking you to consider showing some restraint in posting your mantra to the Marriott board each and every time the resale value question shows up in your "New Posts."  Perhaps before jumping in you might give us Marriott regulars the chance to answer with personal knowledge of the particulars.  After all, this board certainly gets enough traffic that no posts are left unanswered for very long.  Once we've had a chance to share our expertise anybody, owner or not, should feel free to challenge anything posted with specifics about why we're wrong.

Otherwise I just see a never-ending conflict on this board that only serves to aggravate everyone involved while demeaning TUG, and I don't think that any of us wants that.


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## Bucky (Nov 9, 2012)

SueDonJ said:


> When a new poster comes here and asks for specifics about the financial value of his/her Marriott Weeks, as both the TUG Marriott mod and a Marriott Owner I would prefer that TUGgers give that poster as accurate a picture as possible.  Blanket statements such as "no timeshare is ever worth more than $5K" and, "most can be had for $1 on eBay," are simply not helpful.  It is also not helpful when every single thread related to the question turns into the Marriott Owners having to defend against certain statements made by non-Owners which have been proven incorrect in certain instances a number of times.  What does the new poster gain from that other than total confusion?  S/he's certainly not getting an accurate answer to the question, that's for sure.  TUG certainly doesn't earn any stars for being a nice to place to visit, not when the new posters are greeted with that confusion as well as what appears to be petty bickering and agendas among the regulars.



Very well said Sue. The petty bickering that sometimes occurs on this board is why some of us very rarely even bother to come to it, much less post on it.


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## jimf41 (Nov 9, 2012)

Bucky said:


> Very well said Sue. The petty bickering that sometimes occurs on this board is why some of us very rarely even bother to come to it, much less post on it.



I completely agree.


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## BocaBoy (Nov 9, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Most of the new comers do not own any of the very limited number of times that exceed the typical maximum value. The few that may can be quizzed & the occasional exception told they currently may be lucky but it isn't likely to hold at that level long.
> 
> The majority are looking for answers because they have already discovered the low to no value & teasing them with tempting numbers based on something they likely don't own is almost cruel. We can always say hey your one week might have more value but for the vast majority the facts are they will be lucky to find a taker and will net little or nothing of what they paid.
> 
> Simply saying it may be a Marriott does NOT automatically change the facts of most ownerships. Denial still persists and doesn't help new comers but rather is what confuses them over why they can't get much out of any sale.



It is very easy for someone to argue a tenuous position when they proudly make up any facts needed to support it.  That practice causes rejection of even the valid points made by such an approach.


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## jeff76543 (Nov 9, 2012)

+4 Sue on "Well Said".  

John, I am sure that you are following this discussion.  As a relatively new timeshare owner, through inheritance, I have learned a tremendous amount by reading the various threads/discussions on TUG.  I appreciate hearing all views, which allows me to get a broad picture of the various experiences shared by the TUG community as well as the different types of advice that each member, from his own perspective, can offer.  I include your perspective as part of this broad picture.  Nevertheless, repeating the same position over and over does not make it more true.  In my experience, it sometimes even leads to doubts about the truth of the position by causing the reader/listener to question the balanced character of the view being expressed.  There certainly are cases where continued repetition leads to the opposite of what the speaker intends -- and instead of listening to what he has to say, his audience stops listening (because they think that they have already heard what he has to say too many times already) -- unless, of course, the speaker is speaking to those who have already "converted" to his position, but except in matters of sacred doctrine, they, of course, do not need to be reminded.


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## timeos2 (Nov 9, 2012)

Unless it gets out of hand denial - unfortunately the usual case when people's assumptions especially regarding something they "invested" in (even if it isn't an investment in the normal terms) is challenged - I always try to avoid repeating within a new thread. People - especially newcomers - don't tend to read older threads or even know they exist. So mentioning what may be a verifiable if unpopular view is often needed as each new thread appears. 

This type of discourse has occurred in other areas/brands before & the eventual result was in line with the unfortunate path all timeshares have tended to take. I've also repeatedly stated that a rare few do avoid the bottom limits however that also doesn't last indefinitely & it is very unlikely any timeshare will be worth more in a year or two than it is today at resale. The nature of the product & the way it is sold & operated virtually guarantees that. The trend is nowhere but downward. Telling current or potential owners any different is misleading them. 

Own because you want it, will use it & feel the cost including fees makes it a value to you. Assuming any return or standing value is deluding yourself. That is the reality of all timeshares. 

Yes, for this thread the point has been made & debated. No need for me to say more until the next newbie inquiry comes along. Sue - I know we disagree on this & therefore I greatly appreciate your restraint. I'll try to avoid abusing it. (if I haven't already)


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## jont (Nov 9, 2012)

Thanks for your input John! Although I don't always agree with you, I appreciate you sharing your knowledge with us, even thou it is  sometimes redundant. I was taught at an early age " repition is the mother of learning" I just wished I joined tug before my retail purchases.


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 9, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Simply saying it may be a Marriott does NOT automatically change the facts of most ownerships. Denial still persists and doesn't help new comers but rather is what confuses them over why they can't get much out of any sale.



IMHO this is where John misses the mark because in fact with many Marriott plat and some gold weeks * it does change the dynamic of ownership compared to a no name. *We Marriott owners definitely pay for it but to me and most other Marriott owners its well worth it.

Some of big differences to name a few are;
The ability to sell. Almost every Marriott, even the lowest demand plat weeks and many gold weeks can be sold easily on ebay. Many no names can't even be given a way and those that can be sold sell for a fraction of what Marriotts sell for.

Many plat Marriotts and some gold weeks rent easily and for substantial profit above MF. Again no names don't nearly have the same "rentability" if that is a word.


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## timeos2 (Nov 9, 2012)

Joe - Revisit post #40. Says it all. From the trenches.


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## ronparise (Nov 9, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> IMHO this is where John misses the mark because in fact with many Marriott plat and some gold weeks * it does change the dynamic of ownership compared to a no name. *We Marriott owners definitely pay for it but to me and most other Marriott owners its well worth it.
> 
> Some of big differences to name a few are;
> The ability to sell. Almost every Marriott, even the lowest demand plat weeks and many gold weeks can be sold easily on ebay. Many no names can't even be given a way and those that can be sold sell for a fraction of what Marriotts sell for.
> ...



I dont see the difference

Everything can be sold on ebay...its just a matter of price

and many no name timeshares have  the same "rentability" (ie they can be rented at twice mf) as marriotts. This rentability derives mostly from supply  and demand, not as much as from the name over the door

that there are some timeshares like mine on the low end of the spectrum and yours at the high end,  that can be rented at a profit , doesnt change Johns point...and that is that most timeshares are worth less than $5000. and if Marriott is an exception today, dont count on that lasting


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 10, 2012)

ronparise said:


> I dont see the difference
> 
> Everything can be sold on ebay...its just a matter of price
> 
> ...



I have to respectfully disagree with your disagreement. There are many no names that can't be given away, far far more than Marriott.  And most can't rent for MF let alone at a profit. You've developed a program taking advantage of a special place during a special time from what I can see but that is a rare possibility with the no names. 

And I'm not just talking about over-developed areas. Just go to ebay and plug in Maui timeshare, Aruba timeshare, HHI timeshare and you're see many TSs listed. The only ones, with the exception of a few $1 bids, that have any interest/activity are Marriotts and a few Westin's. Do the same with rentals and you will see the listings validate my position.


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## BocaBoy (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> .....mentioning what may be a verifiable if unpopular view is often needed as each new thread appears.
> 
> This type of discourse has occurred in other areas/brands before & the eventual result was in line with the unfortunate path all timeshares have tended to take. I've also repeatedly stated that a rare few do avoid the bottom limits however that also doesn't last indefinitely & it is very unlikely any timeshare will be worth more in a year or two than it is today at resale. The nature of the product & the way it is sold & operated virtually guarantees that. The trend is nowhere but downward. Telling current or potential owners any different is misleading them.



You always try to make it seem that timeshare values have been decreasing forever.  In fact, it is only in the last four years, at least for Marriott properties.  I bought a Sabal Palms red week in 1987 at developer prices and the resale value had doubled by 2007.  Marriott Resales seldom had more than two or three of these weeks in their inventory.  The bottom fell out of the market in 2008, like all residential real estate but even harder.  Nevertheless I was still able to sell at a slight profit.  I did this with three Marriott weeks.  And these are not isolated instances.

I am not arguing that timeshares should be looked at as a sound financial investment, but the facts are not quite what you keep repeating.  Saying it over and over again and contending that these are verifiable facts does not make it true.  What is true is that the timeshare market has been in a depression for the last four years.


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## EKniager (Nov 10, 2012)

BocaBoy said:


> What is true is that the timeshare market has been in a depression for the last four years.



I'm not sure 4 years is correct.  Regardless, looking forward, the market sure is bullish for VAC!


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## BarbS (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Most of the new comers do not own any of the very limited number of times that exceed the typical maximum value. The few that may can be quizzed & the occasional exception told they currently may be lucky but it isn't likely to hold at that level long.
> 
> The majority are looking for answers because they have already discovered the low to no value & teasing them with tempting numbers based on something they likely don't own is almost cruel. We can always say hey your one week might have more value but for the vast majority the facts are they will be lucky to find a taker and will net little or nothing of what they paid.
> 
> Simply saying it may be a Marriott does NOT automatically change the facts of most ownerships. Denial still persists and doesn't help new comers but rather is what confuses them over why they can't get much out of any sale.



Aren't you being cruel by your persistent attempts to convince newcomers that they can acquire a prime oceanfront Marriott timeshare for next to nothing?  You are not helping anyone with your  teasing despite your futile and unsuccessful efforts to portray yourself as a Marriott expert.


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## csxjohn (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> ...So mentioning what may be a verifiable if unpopular view is often needed as each new thread appears...



This is very true.  It happens with another question that new posters often asks--"has anyone gotten rid of their timeshare with xyz relief company."

We all repeat the same thing that's been said hundreds of times before in that case.

Why shouldn't John repeat his opinion when this question comes up again?  

And why should he have to wait for Marriott owners to state their opinions first, as was suggested by SueDonJ?  What kind of discussion board is that?


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## ronparise (Nov 10, 2012)

MOXJO7282 said:


> I have to respectfully disagree with your disagreement. There are many no names that can't be given away, far far more than Marriott.  And most can't rent for MF let alone at a profit. You've developed a program taking advantage of a special place during a special time from what I can see but that is a rare possibility with the no names.
> 
> And I'm not just talking about over-developed areas. Just go to ebay and plug in Maui timeshare, Aruba timeshare, HHI timeshare and you're see many TSs listed. The only ones, with the exception of a few $1 bids, that have any interest/activity are Marriotts and a few Westin's. Do the same with rentals and you will see the listings validate my position.



You make my point for me (and I think Johns) 

Marriotts are the only timeshares that can be sold for any real money and there are many that can be rented at double their quite high mf... and thats odd I think.  My question as a buyer would be...why is that? Marriott will cost me $15000 and $2000 a year and the no name resort down the street $1 and $1200 a year. and there is no difference between them.  (Im not talking about superficial differences, like granite, and stainless steel. Im talking about basic stuff like they are both have 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, and they are both on the same island looking at the same ocean) .. Why the big price differential? My conclusion is that  its only the name...

That scares me and I wonder how long it can last. And is it more likely the $15000 investment will drop to $10000 or Johns mythical $5000  or is it more likeky that the $1 investment will go to $5? Ill bet a dollar against $15000 every time.

and if asked;  thats what I tell people, and if Im faced with a post like the ops post here, I comment (and heres my mistake..I keep talking and I keep commenting until Im convinced that Im understood. I havent figured out that most people dont care what I think and they certainly dont want to be told that as a timeshare buyer I wouldnt touch a Marriott because they cost so much)


By the way on this topic, regarding  valuation of the ops timeshare, I think the consensus here among owners and non owners alike is, take the money and run...$5000 is a good offer that you may never see again.


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## csxjohn (Nov 10, 2012)

ronparise said:


> ...and if asked;  thats what I tell people, and if Im faced with a post like the ops post here, I comment (and heres my mistake..I keep talking and I keep commenting until Im convinced that Im understood...



I remember a thread recently where you kept saying the same thing over and over to try to convince a poster that they were wrong in an assumption  made about a TS they were about to buy.

When they finally realized that what you were telling them was correct, they were very grateful.

So don't stop.  If you feel someone just isn't getting what you're trying to help them with, keep it coming.

Of course when you eventually lose your mind and stop giving correct advice, don't keep it coming.:ignore:

Starting with post #13 http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=78431&highlight=orleans


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## SueDonJ (Nov 10, 2012)

csxjohn said:


> ... And why should he have to wait for Marriott owners to state their opinions first, as was suggested by SueDonJ?  What kind of discussion board is that?



I suggested it as a means to bring an end to this specific situation that's been going on here for years.  It has nothing to do with "what kind" of discussion board TUG is and I hope that I made it very clear that the suggestion was offered respectfully from one longtime TUG Member to another and not in a moderator capacity.

As I've discussed with John over the years, I understand the attitude he has about timeshare resale values and actually agree that his blanket statement mantra isn't wrong or harmful in the abstract.  Where I have a problem with it is when he insists on using it here to contradict the factual info provided by Marriott Owners, in response to specific questions from newcomers to the Marriott board who are then left much more confused about what they own as well as put off by TUG.

It wasn't an order, it wasn't meant as a "get out of my backyard" directive.  It's simply an extended olive branch, now that the situation has once again gotten to the point where someone has been made frustrated enough to report the ongoing problem to TUG admin.


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 10, 2012)

ronparise said:


> My question as a buyer would be...why is that? Marriott will cost me $15000 and $2000 a year and the no name resort down the street $1 and $1200 a year. and there is no difference between them.  (Im not talking about superficial differences, like granite, and stainless steel. Im talking about basic stuff like they are both have 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, and they are both on the same island looking at the same ocean) ..
> Why the big price differential? *My conclusion is that  its only the name.*..



So you really think Marriott's are just better in name only? Is that why people pay a big premium? Is the name the only reason Marriotts are requested 10-1 in II? Have you stayed at the prime Marriotts? 

Please provide me with a comparable no-name that is similar in price, quality and location to the Maui Marriott, Aruba Surf, or any of the big 3 HHI, or Newport Coast, I could name a dozen or more Marriotts these are just the ones I know. 

I think most, but not all of course, believe Marriott does offer a superior quality and they are certainly always better located, but many say the extra cost is not worth it, not that there just as good as no-name so we have another issue we disagree on.


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## GregT (Nov 10, 2012)

ronparise said:


> Marriotts are the only timeshares that can be sold for any real money and there are many that can be rented at double their quite high mf



Ron,

This is an interesting comment and an important one.   I believe this is because of the old adage of what matters in real estate value: Location Location Location.   Kaanapali Beach.  Palm Beach.   Ski-in ski-out properties.   Hilton Head.   

These are extremely prime locations, whether it is a timeshare or a luxury resort.    These are not locations that a timeshare owner justifies in their own head -- these are locations that discriminating luxury resort providers have chosen for their high-paying guests.  Ritz Carlton is building a hotel next to the Aruba Ocean/Surf Clubs.    MOC sits between Hyatt and a Westin hotels.   These are prime locations.

In addition to prime locations, there is a business case as to why some of these timeshares hold their value better than most, _and which illustrates my frustration with the overly-broad assertion that all timeshares are (or will be soon) worthless.   _Location and cash flows matter. 

My Maui Ocean Club 2BR OF cost me $2,150 in MFs.   That's alot.  But it can be rented for $4,500 if the owner can snag a summer week (and I can -- recall that I own a Week 24 and Week 25).

Accordingly, that week has real value -- as a rental unit -- today and in the future.  It is more valuable to me than to another person, because of my fixed 24/25.

The Business Case:

Assume MFs rise at 6% per year (higher than historical, but not without precedent in the timeshare world), and the rental value increases by only 2% per year, this property will have positive cash flow for the next 20 years.  It will take 20 years until renting becomes preferable to owning.   

Using a 10% capitalization rate, *it will take until 2029 for this week to be worth $5K*.  And that's assuming annual MF increase of 6% and rent increase of 2%, and I hope for better.

This is one example in the Marriott world -- there are others (Aruba/Hilton Head).  It is misleading and a distortion to broadly state that all timeshares are (or will be soon) worthless.   And it is so sweeping it can only confuse the reader.

In my opinion, timeshares have four potential components of value:  1) Personal use, which is intangible  2) Rental value, as per above 3) as a participant in a mini-system and 4) as a trading property in an Exchange.

Scenario 1 is a personal decision -- but for me to be able to go to Hawaii every year and bring family/friends to stay OF in my 3BR -- at $2,600 in MFs per week -- is priceless. That week rents for $6,500 - $7,000.

Scenario 2 is a business decision -- pure cash flows, and expectations about future MFs and rental income.   A real estate investor will want to know Operating Income and Cap Rate.   If you want to depreciate my $20K purchase price of the MOC over 25 years (the point at which is stops making money) and assume that week will then be worthless, then it will be worth $5K in 13 years.   But if rents go up 3% instead of 2%, then it takes until 2036.  If MFs hold at 5% annual increase and not 6%, it never hits $5K in my lifetime.

Scenario 3 can carry real value here.   We see it in Starwood, where a Mandatory 2BR at WKV is worth $15,000 and a Voluntary 2BR at SDO is worth $2,000.   The Mandatory can access the Starwood mini-system and therefore provides access value to the owner.   The Voluntary has value only in that has a trading preference in II.   There is also value to Hilton's mini-system, and preferential access to their portfolio of properties.  Scenario 3 and 4 Both of these rely on continued stability in the rules to preserve value.    

I agree with the point that few timeshares are worth more than $5K, because most likely few of them pass the test of Scenario 2.   But the timeshares that do are often owned by members of this board, and *that this value proposition should not be disregarded*.

Aruba, Hilton Head, Maui are obvious properties where there is tangible demonstration of a cash flows driven valuation that is not dependent on the emotion of the buyer.   Once this point is accepted, then it becomes a debate on how quickly the economic situation of the world can deteriorate and undermine these assumptions --- and that is opinion only. 

I applaud Ron and Joe for their embracing select properties that have rental value and constructing a business to it.   Personally, I'll continue to pick off MOCs in the 20s opportunistically because I believe in the rental value -- and I like the place, so I also value Scenario 1.  If MOC 2BR OFs drop to the teens, I'm in.  

As a group, I believe Marriott owners are a very realistic group about the value of what we own -- and it appears we are good judges of it.   I don't recall seeing any advice from a Marriott owner that misled a newbie.  To the contrary, I believe the advice here is sound and sober.   And people's opinions (my own included) do not make them facts.

Best,

Greg


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## AwayWeGo (Nov 10, 2012)

*You Are Correct, Sir.*




csxjohn said:


> If you feel someone just isn't getting what you're trying to help them with, keep it coming.


That's about the size of it.

_Repetition Is The Mother Of Learning. _  Always was.  Still is. 

Any time TUG-BBS participants are offering their own views for the potential benefit of others, particularly the newbies, there's no reason to stifle oneself or hedge because of the near certainty that not everyone will agree, or that we know others hold contrasting views, or that we've already typed the same thing previously. 

Moderators & peons alike can state their views & give the reasons for those views & let the chips fall where they may. Whether it's the 1st time those views are laid out or the 99th is _mox nix_. 

Holding back because we know others see things differently will only water down the content of TUG-BBS -- the chilling effect in action. 

It is important not to try to get people's goat just for the sake of causing a fuss or generating a pointless kerfuffle.  But it is also important not to hesitate about telling it the way we see it because we don't know (or _do_ know) who's apt to take exception -- or because we've typed the same thing many times before.. 

Likewise there is no need for those who do take exception to hold back about saying so, & why -- for the 1st time or the 100th.

Thanks to the Grand Pro & the various assistant pro moderators, TUG-BBS has an outstanding track record as a place where people can disagree without being disagreeable.  

Is this a great web site or what ?

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## SueDonJ (Nov 10, 2012)

It seems to me that some may be unclear about what's happening here and why it's so frustrating to others.

There's no doubt that reasonable discourse is welcomed by any- and everyone who participates on TUG.  It's what makes the site such a welcoming and valuable asset for timeshare enthusiasts.  I don't think anybody who is frustrated wants to stifle opinions from all sides in an effort to promote a unified voice for their particular agenda here.

But when an uneducated opinion is in direct opposition to facts that are presented, how is that helpful?  That's what we're discussing here, that John repeatedly shares his blanket "no timeshare is worth blah-blah-blah" in threads in which certain timeshare values are factually known to be more than what he presents.

It would be like me trolling the Starwood board for every mention of "resale value" and insisting in every thread that Starwood is no different from any other timeshare, and every Starwood timeshare is devalued for every owner the same as any other on the resale market.  I don't own there, have not visited every resort, and do not understand the intricacies of Starwood direct v. resale or the Westin equivalent of Marriott Rewards.  So it would not be helpful for me to troll that board in such a way!  And it would be frustrating for the Starwood owners if I continued to do it anyway even after they correct me!

That's the frustration we're dealing with here.  Everybody understands that there are generalities with regard to the big-picture timeshare market.  But I have no doubt that we Marriott timeshare owners are better able than non-owners to correlate those generalities to the specifics of what we own.  We do not live in a fantasy land here; we KNOW the values we can expect.  It is insulting for someone who is not aware of the same specifics to repeatedly insist that Marriott regulars are somehow incorrectly guiding TUG newcomers.  We don't do that here, and we don't need a non-Owner's participation here to keep us from doing that.

Ugh.  It's not that we want to stifle reasonable discourse.  It's that we want our product to be presented correctly on the most valuable timeshare site that exists, and we want newcomers to the site to feel that they can trust the info that we share.

Now I'm done.


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## AwayWeGo (Nov 10, 2012)

*The System Works.  Yay.*




SueDonJ said:


> It's not that we want to stifle reasonable discourse.  It's that we want our product to be presented correctly on the most valuable timeshare site that exists, and we want newcomers to the site to feel that they can trust the info that we share.


You say it the way you see it based on the facts that you think mean the most.  

Other people say it the way they see it based on the facts that they think mean the most.

You say what's wrong with what the other people type.  The other people say what's wrong with what you type.  

You point to your specific experience as evidence of why you're right.  Other people point to a less specific or more general picture as evidence of why your experience may not be typical. 

Back & forth.  Point & counterpoint.  Synthesis & antethesis.  Rinse.  Repeat. 

As Thos. Jefferson put it, _We Are Not Afraid To Follow Truth Wherever It May Lead, Nor To Tolerate Any Error So Long As Reason Is Left Free To Combat It._

The system works.  

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## SueDonJ (Nov 10, 2012)

AwayWeGo said:


> You say it the way you see it based on the facts that you think mean the most.
> 
> Other people say it the way they see it based on the facts that they think mean the most.
> 
> ...



Respectfully, Alan, no, this system is not working.  This isn't a matter of differing objective opinions.  It's a matter of subjective facts being challenged by someone who is not knowledgeable enough about the specific topic to make the challenges.  It's a matter of valuable TUG contributors being made to feel that there is for some unknown reason a specific agenda against their contributions.

It's not reasonable and it's not productive.


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## GregT (Nov 10, 2012)

Alan,

I would have no objection to John's comments, if he were not a moderator. I agree with you that discussion and respectful debate is healthy, but when a negative opinion comes from a moderator it appears to be from a greater level of authority.   A newbie would Likely discount his negtive comments since he does not own Marriotts, but because he is a moderator it brings greater weight.

I believe John has a valid points, but I also think he's unwilling to recognize when his experience ceases being applicable.   I am a CPA, but I am an auditor not a tax expert.  Even so, I know alot about taxes but I'm not an expert.

But the mere fact that I am a CPA has caused people to solicit tax advice from me - fortunately for them I understand the boundaries of my knowledge.  It is disconcerting that John and TUG management do not acknowledge the harm that can be done to the Marriott community from not tempering controversial opinions by the moderators.

Best,

Greg


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## BocaBoy (Nov 10, 2012)

SueDonJ said:


> Respectfully, Alan, no, this system is not working.  This isn't a matter of differing objective opinions.  It's a matter of subjective facts being challenged by someone who is not knowledgeable enough about the specific topic to make the challenges.  It's a matter of valuable TUG contributors being made to feel that there is for some unknown reason a specific agenda against their contributions.
> 
> It's not reasonable and it's not productive.



I agree totally.  And what we are seeing is not just someone repeating the same position in various threads.  He repeats it over and over again in the same thread.  How many times in this thread alone?

To put this in another perspective, when I first started posting on TUG shortly after the DC program was rolled out, I was appalled by the degree of Marriott bashing that was going on in numerous threads.  I responded in several of them with a counter argument that basically said the same thing each time.  It did not take Dave M long to delete most of my posts and send me a PM saying it was being done for redundancy.  I thought he was over reaching because my posts were in different threads and the points I was responding to were also redundant, but in this case John's redundancy happens over and over again in the same thread.  Sounds like political talking points that ignore the fact checkers.


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## timeos2 (Nov 10, 2012)

Your "facts" are no more verifiable than mine. In truth there are far more certifiable cases that meet the ones I use than the few, isolated and often of the "I KNOW what its worth $$" you want to believe. 

If 5-10 select weeks of 52 are in fact worth more than average then that still leaves the majority at or below the average. Attempts to lump all prices with only the select few views/weeks/use times that might exceed the floor amount is wishful thinking and misleads those who want to think they have a value or asset they do not. DVC used to be the hotbed for that myth but now it seems to be here at Marriott. I guess the high fees make people more willing to buy into the idea - until THEY try to sell & find it isn't so easy after all. 

Everyone wants to own the special time. Very few actually do & market changes can erase even those few.


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## GregT (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Your "facts" are no more verifiable than mine. In truth there are far more certifiable cases that meet the ones I use than the few, isolated and often of the "I KNOW what its worth $$" you want to believe.
> 
> If 5-10 select weeks of 52 are in fact worth more than average then that still leaves the majority at or below the average. Attempts to lump all prices with only the select few views/weeks/use times that might exceed the floor amount is wishful thinking and misleads those who want to think they have a value or asset they do not. DVC used to be the hotbed for that myth but now it seems to be here at Marriott. I guess the high fees make people more willing to buy into the idea - until THEY try to sell & find it isn't so easy after all.
> 
> Everyone wants to own the special time. Very few actually do & market changes can erase even those few.


John, your post is more of the same. Can you please comment on the specific points I made on cash flow based valuation Thank you


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## timeos2 (Nov 10, 2012)

GregT said:


> John, your post is more of the same. Can you please comment on the specific points I made on cash flow based valuation Thank you



The majority of buyers know nothing of cash flow valuation or anything much about timeshare in general. They are looking for a nice place to vacation and, as resale buyers, expect it cheap. 

To say a super informed buyer that understands cash flow and/or rentals is the only one willing to pay top dollar limits your market even more. That miniscule segment hardly represents the norm. Thus further backing my view.


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> * If 5-10 select weeks of 52 are in fact worth more than average then that still leaves the majority at or below the average. *Attempts to lump all prices with only the select few views/weeks/use times that might exceed the floor amount is wishful thinking and misleads those who want to think they have a value or asset they do not. DVC used to be the hotbed for that myth but now it seems to be here at Marriott. I guess the high fees make people more willing to buy into the idea - until THEY try to sell & find it isn't so easy after all.
> 
> Everyone wants to own the special time. Very few actually do & market changes can erase even those few.


This is the crux of the disagreement in my mind. John acknowledges some Marriotts do not fit into his ideology so the question is it 5-10 weeks that don't, a few more or most?

Below is a list of the Marriott resorts. I contend that its much more than 10-15 weeks that don't fit John's position. If you just consider all the 2BDRM plat and gold weeks How many would sell for $5k? How many $10k? 

Doing a quick analysis, which doesn't include good knowledge of the popular ski resorts, there are at least 29 resorts that plats and golds would sell for at least $5k and of those 15 would sell for at least $10k. 

This doesn't include the many super premium weeks that sell for well over $10k or even $20k or more.

Multiple that by the number of weeks and units available at Marriott and its a helluva alot more than 10-15 weeks.


Marriott's Newport Coast® Villas
Marriott's Kauai Beach Club
Marriott's Maui Ocean Club
Marriott's Monarch
Marriott's OceanWatch Villas
Marriott's Aruba Surf Club
Marriott's Custom House
Marriott's Grande Ocean
Marriott's Canyon Villas
Marriott's Desert Springs Villas
Marriott's Desert Springs Villas
Marriott's Shadow Ridge
Marriott's Timber Lodge
Marriott's Mountain Valley Lodge
Marriott's Streamside
Marriott's BeachPlace Towers
Marriott's Crystal Shores
Marriott's Villas at Doral
Marriott's Cypress Harbour
Marriott's Grande Vista
Marriott's Harbour Lake
Marriott's Imperial Palms Villas
Marriott's Lakeshore Reserve
Marriott's Royal Palms
Marriott's Sabal Palms
Marriott's Legends Edge
Marriott's Oceana Palms
Marriott's Ocean Pointe
Marriott's Kauai Lagoons - Kalanipu'u
Marriott's Waiohai Beach Club
Marriott's Maui Ocean Club
Marriott's Ko Olina Beach Club
Marriott's Willow Ridge Lodge
Marriott's Grand Chateau
Marriott's Fairway Villas
Marriott's Barony Beach Club
Marriott's Harbour Club
Marriott's Harbour Point
Marriott's Heritage Club
Marriott's Sunset Pointe
Marriott's SurfWatch
Marriott's MountainSide
Marriott's Summit Watch
Marriott's Manor Club
Marriott's Aruba Ocean Club
Marriott's St. Kitts Beach Club
Marriott's Frenchman's Cove
Marriott's Village d'Ile-de-France
Marriott's Playa Andaluza
Marriott's Club Son Antem
Marriott's Marbella Beach Resort
Marriott's Phuket Beach Club


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## timeos2 (Nov 10, 2012)

Without having specifics I can only say including Manor club belies the accuracy of the list. The prices there tanked a couple years ago and fall below the $5000 number now on average,


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> *The majority of buyers know nothing of cash flow valuation or anything much about timeshare in general. *They are looking for a nice place to vacation and, as resale buyers, expect it cheap.
> 
> To say a super informed buyer that understands cash flow and/or rentals is the only one willing to pay top dollar limits your market even more. That miniscule segment hardly represents the norm. Thus further backing my view.



Another simple truth is Marriott is not targeting the majority of buyers. Its targeting a more higher end client who is ok with paying a little more as long as he gets what he wants, which is being at the best location, location, location with quality amenities and activities. 

To attract that clientele Marriott has to pay more to produce that better product. I'm ok with that because I think the product across the board is very good and we have figured out a way to experience the best that Marriott has to offer and still feel that way after 11+ years of ownership.


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Without having specifics I can only say including Manor club belies the accuracy of the list. The prices there tanked a couple years ago and fall below the $5000 number now on average,



The list is just of all Marriott resorts not a list of the ones I believe are still valued at $5k. My quick math consisted of a spreadsheet where I listed the resorts and had a column for Plt $5k, Plt $10k and same for Gold. That is where I came up with the 29 plat and gold weeks selling for $5k, but i can see looking at it again that I was probably conservative on that number and its probably more than 29 that would sell for more than $5k . Of course numerous Orlando and Manor Club aren't in that category but many are.


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## GregT (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> The majority of buyers know nothing of cash flow valuation or anything much about timeshare in general. They are looking for a nice place to vacation and, as resale buyers, expect it cheap.
> 
> To say a super informed buyer that understands cash flow and/or rentals is the only one willing to pay top dollar limits your market even more. That miniscule segment hardly represents the norm. Thus further backing my view.



John,

Marriott is attracting a different type of customer than you've described.    Perhaps should limit your advice to those customers, since you understand those timeshares.  And your advice would be relevant there.  

Do you understand cash-flow based valuation?   Do you (John Chase) get it?  Do you understand that an asset that can generate $2,000 per year in net income (after MFs) has some value?  And it isn't worthless?

Does that concept register with you?  

I think it does not or you would show some recognition of why some of the Marriotts have value.

Greg


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## tschwa2 (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Without having specifics I can only say including Manor club belies the accuracy of the list. The prices there tanked a couple years ago and fall below the $5000 number now on average,


 The list is all the Marriotts (my quick count was 52).  He said at least 29 had the $5000 or more resale value for at least platinum and some gold weeks.  This means that almost half are worth less than $5000 even for the best weeks.  I am not sure but doubt that any of the 29 have a resale value of $5000+ for all the units- all seasons, sizes, and views.  There are many units in the Marriott system worth less than $1000.  Probably more are worth less than $1000 than those that are worth more than $5000.  

I agree what others have said if you can easily rent a unit for 2-3 times or more than it will have a good resale value.  If it can be easily rented for 1.5 times MF's it will have some resale value.  If it can be rented for the same or less than MF's, or exchanged into easily and less expensively, or the system of using and renting is overly complicated, or outrageous transfer fees are charged when selling the resale value will be close to nothing.  Marriott's name recognition also helps rental and resale values but alone does not guarantee that any unit will have value.


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## vacationhopeful (Nov 10, 2012)

My brother is a lawyer. He went to Princeton. He does not own a Marriott nor does he know a thing about timeshares. But he has been to several timeshares that I own or exchanged into.

He does know quality and he does know people. He loved The Hilton Club, even though he slept on a rollaway cot. He comment was based on the other guests he talked to and whose conversations he listened in on. He found them to be educated, worldly, engaging, polite, sophiscated, etc. He wanted to be around them. He enjoyed talking with them.

I could see him being happy at a Marriott - not because it cost up to $75K to buy the week or up to $3400MF yearly but because it is what he enjoys and expects. Your peer group at work, your hobbies, your dining experiences, your reading habits, your travels, etc make up who you are. And who you want to associate with and expose your family to. 

Like my good old friend who had to pay tribute to the local spiritual leader to diving off his beach - found that out after the spiritual leader had guns shot over their heads while in the boat. I knew his level of travel was way too CHEAP for me to feel comfortable. You get what you pay for and expect a certain level of service and quality in what you pay for. Nor do I have to mention his 2 weeks of being interviewed by the men with short hair (Mr Smith's all) at the US embassy when he tried to get a replacement passport lost in that providence/island.


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## timeos2 (Nov 10, 2012)

GregT said:


> John,
> 
> Marriott is attracting a different type of customer than you've described.    Perhaps should limit your advice to those customers, since you understand those timeshares.  And your advice would be relevant there.
> 
> ...



Sure I get it. But I wouldn't buy as the uncontrollable - the inability of owners to impact the fees Marriott imposes & that continually rise even faster then the average t/s that can and does kill that value over time - thus to pay to buy a declining rather than appreciating item makes no sense (except for use which is a legitimate reason to own & enjoy without return expected at the end).  

Plus trying to mix the value Marriott can demand at retail & relate that price to resale by an individual is beyond mixing apples and oranges. DRI, Wastegate and many others sell for tens of thousands every week  ownerships that individuals cannot even give away.  That is reality. Retail price means nothing. It is just another lure to make buyers think they got a "deal" because tomorrow the price will be $XXX higher. It's all slick marketing at best - near scams at worst. 

I know the true believers will hold on until THEY try to sell and it falls far short of what they "know it's worth". But few want to report that so most just disappear without comment after they finally do decide to get out. Hang in and believe if it makes you feel better. Just do be sure to tell us whenever it is you do sell and exactly what you get. IF it is what you believe I'll be the first to congratulate you on your great insight & luck. But my bet will be squarely on the actual number falling far short of your now lofty expectations.   Let us know when the time comes & the expected price before you offer it. Until then you have only a feeling while my premise has thousands of actual examples every day.


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## GregT (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Sure I get it. But I wouldn't buy as the uncontrollable - the inability of owners to impact the fees Marriott imposes & that continually rise even faster then the average t/s that can and does kill that value over time - thus to pay to buy a declining rather than appreciating item makes no sense (except for use which is a legitimate reason to own & enjoy without return expected at the end).
> 
> Plus trying to mix the value Marriott can demand at retail & relate that price to resale by an individual is beyond mixing apples and oranges. DRI, Wastegate and many others sell for tens of thousands every week  ownerships that individuals cannot even give away.  That is reality. Retail price means nothing. It is just another lure to make buyers think they got a "deal" because tomorrow the price will be $XXX higher. It's all slick marketing at best - near scams at worst.
> 
> I know the true believers will hold on until THEY try to sell and it falls far short of what they "know it's worth". But few want to report that so most just disappear without comment after they finally do decide to get out. Hang in and believe if it makes you feel better. Just do be sure to tell us whenever it is you do sell and exactly what you get. IF it is what you believe I'll be the first to congratulate you on your great insight & luck. But my bet will be squarely on the actual number falling far short of your now lofty expectations.   Let us know when the time comes & the expected price before you offer it. Until then you have only a feeling while my premise has thousands of actual examples every day.



I'm not advocating buying retail -- I am providing a basis for valuing Marriott timeshares that are renting for more than their MFs.

You are providing your experience -- from other timeshare systems -- and presenting it as fact in the Marriott board.  It doesn't wash.

But you can't get away from a financial analysis, and words and thousands of examples from other systems are hollow here.   Supply and Demand means everything (and it is highly related to cash-flow based valuation).

DRI and Westgate -- the Supply is tremendous and there is little demand.  Those are worthless.  Silver Marriotts struggle -- as do many Gold and Platinums.  Those values are low or non-existent also.

But the Demand for a high demand Marriott weeks -- the ones I've talked about outstrips Supply.    

When MOC 2BR OF is worthless -- we will have more to worry about in the world than timeshare values.

Greg


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## MALC9990 (Nov 10, 2012)

I guess we all could form a self help group like Alcohol Anonymous and once a week we should all get together electronically and each admit that we are Timeshare Owners and addicted to taking great vacations. 

But seriously - as a multi week owner of Marriott weeks and Asia Pacific Club points and now an enrolled DC member I have learned so much here that my non-TUG Marriott owning friends seek me out as an adviser on all things MVCI and II. I read what John Chase and Alan Cole have to contribute and some I agree with and much I do not BUT I still enjoy and appreciate their input.

My TS weeks are not valued in hard cash but in the vacations we have enjoyed and will enjoy that we did not have before I became a TS addict. I know and accept that my weeks and points purchased from MVCI direct have a much lower monetary value than I paid for them. My consolation is that the 2 resale weeks have not depreciated too much since I bought them and that vacation value is something that I am able to share with friends and family.

I don't know if monetary values of TS weeks will rise in the future - and to be honest I don't really care at present. I might care at some point in the future but that is something over which I will not lose any sleep today.

The forum's members are probably the most well informed of Marriott owners and if we can help new members who come here with questions whatever they may be then we should do so.

I thank Sue for the work she does as moderator of this forum - a thankless task that I would not want to take on.


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 10, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Let us know when the time comes & the expected price before you offer it. Until then you have only a feeling while my premise has thousands of actual examples every day.



Why wait for Greg T to sell. Below are 2 recent ebay examples of the value of the same Marriott TSs.  And this is an ebay sale which is well documented as representing the bottom of the resale pricing range. 

2BDRM Marriott Maui OF/OV weeks will always have a value, and there are many, many units like that in the Marriott system. I have even seen an uptick in pricing on the weeks that I personally own in historical ebay sales.  

There is a chance that prime weeks will go up in price because Marriott is no longer crazy expanding like it was so the supply is now limited for full prime weeks. I'm not saying that will happen but its certainly possible.  

http://www.ebay.com/itm/190733624239?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1423.l2649

http://www.ebay.com/itm/MARRIOTT-MA...90764437731?pt=Timeshares&hash=item43b2e938e3


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## BocaBoy (Nov 11, 2012)

John Chase, other than the fact that you are a broken record with essentially one post that is repeated dozens of times like a political talking point, my biggest problem is that you do not even acknowledge that today's resale prices are largely a result of the vacation real estate depression, which has hit timeshares especially hard.  I sold my two Sabal Palms red weeks for prices in the teens as recently as two years ago, although they are probably worth less than $5K today.  Sabal Palms was Marriott's first purpose-built timeshare resort.  These types of units regularly sold (and quickly) for over $20K through Marriott Resales prior to the economic crisis.  No one really knows how soon (or even if) timeshare prices will recover or partially recover, but your argument is similar to arguing that single family home ownership is a bad deal because prices will always continue dropping, taxes and maintenance will always go up, and the vast majority of houses will sell for under $100K.  Then be sure to keep repeating the same point over and over again.


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## timeos2 (Nov 11, 2012)

Unlike true real estate (single or multiple family housing) timeshares are not a basic need. They always have been and will always be a luxury item. The timeshare market DID change - likely forever - in part because of the economic collapse and even more due to a poor operation/sales model.  Even the best are lumped in with the junk as to the average buyer it is all an option.  There are far too many good & bad for what the REAL demand is - maybe 3 or 4 times what the true very limited demand is. 

The continued "but my week(s) X are worth more" only proves that while an occasional week or two does have a slightly higher value overall, branded or not, the whole timeshare system is, fairly or not, viewed as tainted and a bad way to spend your hard earned money. We may know it can and does represent a method to obtain far better than average vacation accommodations for less but how you do that utilizing timeshares has also evolved, especially in the  past 5 years. 

Purchase / resale price has become meaningless and usually represents sunk costs you cannot expect to recover. The real cost is the ongoing fees and as those continue to climb even the ability to rent for a potential profit on the very prime times falls. That too is likely to continue if not accelerate. Applies to all weeks even the few that today are premium and may have better than average resale. It really applies to the vast majority - even those OF "specials" but in the lesser seasons - as the fees go up there too and that kills any possible resale value. Continuing to point to the 8-10 weeks out of 52 that are premium ignores the majority that aren't & they drag the whole system down. 

One note song? Perhaps - but that doesn't mean it's out of tune. it may get repetitive but remains the reality of all timesharing.  I don't like it either but that doesn't mean by saying it isn't so I can change it. Deal with it as best you can.


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## ronparise (Nov 11, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Unlike true real estate (single or multiple family housing) timeshares are not a basic need. They always have been and will always be a luxury item. The timeshare market DID change - likely forever - in part because of the economic collapse and even more due to a poor operation/sales model.  Even the best are lumped in with the junk as to the average buyer it is all an option.  There are far too many good & bad for what the REAL demand is - maybe 3 or 4 times what the true very limited demand is.
> 
> The continued "but my week(s) X are worth more" only proves that while an occasional week or two does have a slightly higher value overall, branded or not, the whole timeshare system is, fairly or not, viewed as tainted and a bad way to spend your hard earned money. We may know it can and does represent a method to obtain far better than average vacation accommodations for less but how you do that utilizing timeshares has also evolved, especially in the  past 5 years.
> 
> ...



Come on John..Just drink the kool-aid. Life is a whole lot easier when you dont have to face reality

or as my Grandmother used to say..you can lead a horse to water but you cant make him drink

You have to admit that the Marriott brand has held value (so has worldmark by the way)  That you and I think,  to count on that for the future is foolish, is just an opinion. And who knows we might be wrong


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## timeos2 (Nov 11, 2012)

I do have to wonder why reading of unrealistic expectations riles me up so much?  I mean I'm not going to be disappointed - they are. Yet it bothers me for some reason to see them set themselves up. Maybe it is best to let them dream until it occurs? Nah....


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## SueDonJ (Nov 11, 2012)

ronparise said:


> Come on John..Just drink the kool-aid. Life is a whole lot easier when you dont have to face reality
> 
> or as my Grandmother used to say..you can lead a horse to water but you cant make him drink
> 
> You have to admit that the Marriott brand has held value (so has worldmark by the way)  That you and I think,  to count on that for the future is foolish, is just an opinion. And who knows we might be wrong



Really?!?!  REALLY?!?!  "Drink the Kool-Aid?"  THAT'S what you think of all the posters here who have put in all this effort to try to explain yet again to John why his blanket statement mantra is sometimes incorrect, and then unwelcome, on this board?  Not nice, not nice at all.  There's no need to insult us by insinuating that we don't know what we're talking about, especially not when our discussion points are supported by factual known resale values.

I think it's pretty clear just who is unwilling to let go of a mantra that may not be applicable, and it's not we Marriott owners who take the time and effort to track resale values and trends of the products we own.

This thread began with a post detailing the offer made by Marriott's official Resale Operations for a specific Week and the Owner was unhappy with the offer.  MANY Marriott Owners responded with the reality that resale values for that Week had devalued just that much, and in fact the offer from Marriott Resales would probably net the Owner more than if s/he tried to sell it elsewhere or held onto it hoping for an increased resale value later.  Question asked and answered, correctly and succinctly by knowledgeable Marriott Owners.

But it couldn't stop there, oh no.  It just had to be exploited by John as an opportunity to once more come trolling in to the Marriott board and turn the discussion from a specific known resale offer to his mantra, the insinuation being that the correct info shared by Marriott Owners might be suspect.

IMO what's most frustrating about this whole merry-go-round that never seems to stop, is that John does not give one quarter to the folks who have repeatedly asked him to NOT turn threads about specific Marriott resale values into his screed against Marriott.  Not one quarter.  I can't figure out if he truly believes that he knows more about Marriott resale values than any owners, or if he just can't stand to admit to being wrong occasionally.  Whichever it is, it doesn't serve TUG's reputation well.


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## MOXJO7282 (Nov 11, 2012)

timeos2 said:


> Unlike true real estate (single or multiple family housing) timeshares are not a basic need. They always have been and will always be a luxury item. The timeshare market DID change - likely forever - in part because of the economic collapse and even more due to a poor operation/sales model.  Even the best are lumped in with the junk as to the average buyer it is all an option.  There are far too many good & bad for what the REAL demand is - maybe 3 or 4 times what the true very limited demand is.
> 
> The continued "but my week(s) X are worth more" only proves that while an occasional week or two does have a slightly higher value overall, branded or not, the whole timeshare system is, fairly or not, viewed as tainted and a bad way to spend your hard earned money. We may know it can and does represent a method to obtain far better than average vacation accommodations for less but how you do that utilizing timeshares has also evolved, especially in the  past 5 years.
> 
> ...


John,
         I pointed out 30 or more resorts with significant plat and gold weeks resale value yet you continue to say 8-10 weeks so your math doesn't add up there, but the thing that compels me more than anything to respond to your inaccuracies is that you have no credibility as a Marriott expert and I feel it necessary to offer the balance from someone who is a Marriott expert.

If you were someone like me and owned Marriotts and you talked about specific facts and resorts as I do then your credibility would be solid but its just not.


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## ronparise (Nov 11, 2012)

SueDonJ said:


> Really?!?!  REALLY?!?!  "Drink the Kool-Aid?"  THAT'S what you think of all the posters here who have put in all this effort to try to explain yet again to John why his blanket statement mantra is sometimes incorrect, and then unwelcome, on this board?  Not nice, not nice at all.  There's no need to insult us by insinuating that we don't know what we're talking about, especially not when our discussion points are supported by factual known resale values.
> 
> I think it's pretty clear just who is unwilling to let go of a mantra that may not be applicable, and it's not we Marriott owners who take the time and effort to track resale values and trends of the products we own.
> 
> ...



I understand its frustrating, Im frustrated too. I dont understand how you can continue to believe that  Marriott created something thats somehow more special than any other timeshare.  But I was suggesting as you have, that John give up and give in to you guys. No matter what he says you dont listen. Maybe thats not because you are drinking any koolaid, (maybe youve had one too many Mighty Mo's)  but this group sure looks like a cult to me. 

You might belong to a Cult if: 

 * The group displays excessively zealous and unquestioning commitment 
‪ * Questioning, doubt, and dissent are discouraged 
‪ * Mind-altering practices (such as denunciation sessions, ) are used in excess and serve to suppress doubts about the group.
‪ * The leadership dictates, sometimes in great detail, how members should think, act, and feel 
‪ * The group is elitist, claiming a special, exalted status for itself, 
‪ * The group has a polarized us-versus-them mentality, which may cause conflict with the wider society.
‪ 
‪ 
‪ 
‪ this list is taken from

Characteristics Associated with Cultic Groups - Revised

Janja Lalich, Ph.D. & Michael D. Langone, Ph.D.

‪http://www.csj.org/infoserv_cult101/checklis.htm

I edited it and abridged it for my own purposes 







our god JW Marriott
‪ 
‪


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## hvsmith2 (Nov 11, 2012)

I feel like a neutral in this disagreement.  I find my self agreeing with some of what each of the groups say.

I am a Marriott owner, having bought at retail.  I came to this forum hoping to get information and advice, and actually I have received some useful information and some helpful and well-meaning advice.

However, I must say that in some ways I am still quite confused about what the value of my weeks is.  What I mean by this is what prices have been transacted, not what "true value" is.

It has proved even harder than I thought to find out "where the market is".

The question will soon be academic for me as I will have sold all my weeks.  I will not be dwelling on the massive loss I have taken; my regret will be that I was not really able to find out what transactions are taking place.  I do wish there was a proper marketplace for timeshare resales.


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## mlfrancis (Nov 11, 2012)

*what did I unleash with this thread????*



SueDonJ said:


> This thread began with a post detailing the offer made by Marriott's official Resale Operations for a specific Week and the Owner was unhappy with the offer.



not necessarily unhappy, just surprised as Marriott has typically offered more than you see on redweek, ebay, etc.  I didn't need anyone to explain the current market to me, I certainly understand it.  I just wanted to make people aware of what Marriott is offering these days.

Sorry to all of you for a thread which has become very controversial and unpleasant.


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## amycurl (Nov 11, 2012)

> I do wish there was a proper marketplace for timeshare resales.



Don't we all. Creating a more efficient and effective marketplace for timeshare resales will be the true game-changer in the industry moving forward.


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## timeos2 (Nov 11, 2012)

amycurl said:


> Don't we all. Creating a more efficient and effective marketplace for timeshare resales will be the true game-changer in the industry moving forward.



Yes, a true key to it all.  The few markets that do exist - eBay, Redweek and a few others - are extremely small when compared to the total number of timeshares for sale.  Until a true, robust timeshare resale market somehow emerges, if ever, any price is a wild guess and no "value" can possibly be assured.


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## timeos2 (Nov 11, 2012)

hvsmith2 said:


> on the massive loss I have taken



Tells it all. When they do sell it's not what "they knew" it would be....

It's not the messenger - it IS the message.


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## swaits (Nov 11, 2012)

This is akin to the talking heads on Bloomberg or CNBC, arguing about some financial minutiae.

At the end of the day, your week is worth what someone will pay you for it. You have a very open (as in transparency and visibility) marketplace in eBay. You may find other marketplaces where you can do better or even worse.

And yes, Marriott can certainly have created something special or different. At some level, it's just timeshare. But, at another level, people may value the brand, service, locations, and accommodations differently than say Disney or Hilton or especially Joe's Rickety Shack.

That said.. an off-week at an off-property is, indeed, worthless. Only the best seasons at better properties, with lower MFs, are going to pull decent prices. That's evident no matter what market you're looking at.

Now, how long until this thread is locked? Or, should everyone say the same thing a few more times???


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## AwayWeGo (Nov 11, 2012)

*Unpleasant Is As Unpleasant Does.*




mlfrancis said:


> Sorry to all of you for a thread which has become very controversial and unpleasant.


Controversial, yes. 

Unpleasant, not so much. 

That is, throughout all the feisty back & forth people have remained courteous, respectful, polite, (mostly) patient, & (mostly) forbearing, even when faced with views they clearly find uncongenial, & even when they start to become impatient with those views.

Nobody has typed _Dear Sir You Cur_ (or words to that effect), or anything like it.

Everybody has remained mature & within civil bounds. 

I remain positively impressed that there is still no TUG orthodoxy, not even on semi-touchy issues like high-end timeshare values, whether premium brands are "worth it," ROFR, & so on.  (Lack of orthodoxy is a feature, not a bug.)

I am glad that repetitiousness is not against the TUG-BBS rules.  Otherwise the Grand Pro would have settled my hash years ago. 

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## AwayWeGo (Nov 11, 2012)

*You Typed A Mouthful.*




hvsmith2 said:


> I do wish there was a proper marketplace for timeshare resales.


Amen. 

Something like Wal-Mart for "new" sales by timeshare companies. 

Something along the lines of CarMax for resales. 

( I am not holding my breath. )

Meanwhile, it's still a jungle out there. 

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## AwayWeGo (Nov 11, 2012)

*Keep'm Coming.*




swaits said:


> Or, should everyone say the same thing a few more times?


People should type whatever they want to type as many more times as they care to keep on typing it -- just 1 of the many charms of TUG-BBS. 

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## Bucky (Nov 11, 2012)

ronparise said:


> I understand its frustrating, Im frustrated too. I dont understand how you can continue to believe that  Marriott created something thats somehow more special than any other timeshare.  But I was suggesting as you have, that John give up and give in to you guys. No matter what he says you dont listen. Maybe thats not because you are drinking any koolaid, (maybe youve had one too many Mighty Mo's)  but this group sure looks like a cult to me.
> 
> You might belong to a Cult if:
> 
> ...



Well, let's all bow down to the all knowing. Face it, anyone who has almost 3700 (!!!) posts in less than two years must have all the answers. Funny IMO how the non Marriott owners always seem to turn threads on the "Marriott Resort System" forum into trash posts.


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## DeniseM (Nov 11, 2012)

Let's take a break and cool down, folks:


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