# That didn't take long



## Janette (Apr 8, 2008)

Disney just declined the RFR on our Boadwalk purchase in one week. It was a pretty good contract with banked points and our same use month.


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## SDKath (Apr 8, 2008)

Congratulations!  SO glad that it's going so fast!   

Katherine


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## timeos2 (Apr 8, 2008)

*The end may be in sight for the "can sell for what we paid' myth*

Availability of DVC time in II is noticeably increased lately. Disney is acknowledging that the older resorts can no longer be sold for full price as the time left is so different than new.  You will now start to see ROFR numbers dropping or dropped all together as DVC knows it can't resell the short timers for all that much. The value to them will be in the annual fees until they get it back when the RTU ends - for free!  Why pay for it? 

So if you are thinking about DVC points you may want to start shopping around and offering lower prices for the "old" points. You may be very pleasantly surprised at the results if purchase cost is important to you.  Of course once you buy you're saddled with those fees but you already knew that.  The resorts should stay well maintained as Disney gets to charge the big fees right until the last use year. They want them back in perfect shape!  

If you are a long term lease holder - RTU buyer this may be the very short period that will serve as your warning that the bottom is about to drop out of the illusion of price controlled resales and ROFR.  If you think you are going to sell in the next year or two better do it before the market alone sets the rate. It won't be anything close to $70 per point.  In fact DVC "old points" may become a bargain similar to Wyndham and others.  The combination of limited remaining use years, sky high fees and DVC stopping ROFR (although that only punishes buyers - it won't help you sellers one bit) means the resale value will plummet.   Buyers will still buy but only at a bargain price.

Let the fun begin!


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## riverdees05 (Apr 8, 2008)

Congratuations.  You will have fun with the grandchildren now!


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## Steamboat Bill (Apr 8, 2008)

timeos2 said:


> Availability of DVC time in II is noticeably increased lately. Disney is acknowledging that the older resorts can no longer be sold for full price as the time left is so different than new.  You will now start to see ROFR numbers dropping or dropped all together as DVC knows it can't resell the short timers for all that much.



What are you smoking?

The sightings in II are mainly studio and 1 bdr OKW/SSR. It is a RARE day on II to see a 2 bedroom BWV appear in prime time.

The RTU expiration date for the original DVC is still 2042....and that is 34 years from now and is a LONG time in timeshare years. How many people actually keep full-ownership timeshares for 34 years or more? I have not met very many people that can say that. Besides any full ownership TS will require MAJOR assessments sometime in 34 year history.

The price difference for the "old" product vs the "new" product from Disney is less than $10 per point (less than 10% discount)

I doubt DVC will stop ROFR any time soon and the prices will not drop like a rock as you can book into any new DVC at 7 month window and your points are EXACTLY the same as the brand new AKL points.




timeos2 said:


> If you are a long term lease holder - RTU buyer this may be the very short period that will serve as your warning that the bottom is about to drop out of the illusion of price controlled resales and ROFR.  If you think you are going to sell in the next year or two better do it before the market alone sets the rate. It won't be anything close to $70 per point.  In fact DVC "old points" may become a bargain similar to Wyndham and others.  The combination of limited remaining use years, sky high fees and DVC stopping ROFR (although that only punishes buyers - it won't help you sellers one bit) means the resale value will plummet.   Buyers will still buy but only at a bargain price.



ok...I am getting a headache now....The DVC Sky is NOT falling and the prices are not about to "plummet". Take it from someone that actually owns DVC since 2001.

If you want to book BWV in prime time and need an 11 month window, you have no other options than to buy there....is is still a good deal and is one of the harder DVC to get into.

Perhaps we need to make an online bet about the future of DVC and see who is more accurate in the future....any ideas?


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## timeos2 (Apr 8, 2008)

*It is all coming together*



Steamboat Bill said:


> What are you smoking?
> 
> 
> Perhaps we need to make an online bet about the future of DVC and see who is more accurate in the future....any ideas?



Bill - I started predicting the drop around 2004 within 5 years. Now it's 2008 and we're starting to see the cracks. Another couple years and the "old" points are going to be at market price as Disney knows where the value is for them.  

I didn't post that the ROFR was easily waived - the OP did. And it was for a price they thought wouldn't make it through.  Wear blinders if you want but the handwriting is on the wall. Once all support ends those still holding time they plan to sell will be stuck. If you plan to hang in until the end then it really doesn't make any difference to those buyers.   It's only those that are under the delusion that they "can sell anytime for what I paid" that are going to get burned when they try.  

As for availability there have been a bunch of 2 bedrooms in prime time seen recently - I'd NEVER seen those before.  

So if you are a die hard Disney fan and plan to use your RTU virtually forever you can safely ignore this thread.  But if you plan to sell, and especially if you think you can be made whole on your purchase price, the time to put together a plan is NOW. In another 18-24 months it is likely to be too late. 

I don't need to bet - my take on this hasn't changed in 4 years and it isn't changing now.  Except now the trends say my theory may be the correct one.   If yours is I'll certainly admit I was wrong. But Disney isn't dumb - they aren't going to buy back what they get for free if they wait.


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## Steamboat Bill (Apr 8, 2008)

timeos2 said:


> Bill - I started predicting the drop around 2004 within 5 years. Now it's 2008 and we're starting to see the cracks. Another couple years and the "old" points are going to be at market price as Disney knows where the value is for them.



Well, I may have actually beaten you to the prediction (not a hard one to make)  that the price per point of certain DVC will rise, slowly reach a peak, plateau, and start to decline. I think this will be a slow process like going up and down a 45' mountain rather than falling off a cliff like the NASDAQ in Y2K.

This was one reason I sold all my VWL points when they announces a new RTU for SSR and one day I will sell all my SSR when they announce another significant jump in the RTU for another DVC (Contemporary?). The second factor in me selling VWL was that the SSR annual dues was 50c per point less and I owned over 1,000 points. The third factor was I never used the 11 month window for my home resort, so I decided to buy the cheapest points, with the longest RTU and the lowest annual dues....SSR.

DVC points will not drop like a rock as they are able to get you into any DVC property at 7 months window and with the HUGE costs associated with going to DVC at the rack rate and the incredible taxes they charge, you can easily save 50% using DVC (at a $11pp valuation or rental rate). If you use the actual cost to members $4.50 pp average then the savings is much more dramatic.

Assuming DVC is only for families with kids, a 34 year contract still could be used by:
1 family for 10 years and sell it to family 2 for 10 years and then sell it to family 3 for 10 years and finally family 4 for 4 years. Heck, you can sell it back to the kids of family 1 after 20-25 years.

Every year into the future, the value of the DVC contract should slowly decline to zero at the end of 34 years, but remember that the cost of staying at a DVC rental via cash will probably be well over $1,000 per night for a studio in 20 years from now.

Thus, I am still very bullish on DVC, but hedge my bets by switching to a new RTU every 10-15 years or so.


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## SDKath (Apr 8, 2008)

It passed ROFR because Disney has considerably sped up the process lately (not because it was a bad deal).  

Like I said, CONGRATS and ignore those who predict doom.     You will LOOOOVVVEEEE your vacations.

As a matter of fact, Disney just announced today that they are allowing 3 and 4 day vacations through II now too!  They are the FIRST in any timeshare system to do this.   We are thrilled as we just don't have the time to keep taking these 1 week vacations (and paying the weekend air-fare)!  

Hurray for DVC.   

Katherine


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## Carl D (Apr 8, 2008)

Janette said:


> Disney just declined the RFR on our Boadwalk purchase in one week. It was a pretty good contract with banked points and our same use month.


Congratulations on your contract!


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## Carl D (Apr 8, 2008)

timeos2 said:


> Availability of DVC time in II is noticeably increased lately. Disney is acknowledging that the older resorts can no longer be sold for full price as the time left is so different than new.  You will now start to see ROFR numbers dropping or dropped all together as DVC knows it can't resell the short timers for all that much. The value to them will be in the annual fees until they get it back when the RTU ends - for free!  Why pay for it?
> 
> So if you are thinking about DVC points you may want to start shopping around and offering lower prices for the "old" points. You may be very pleasantly surprised at the results if purchase cost is important to you.  Of course once you buy you're saddled with those fees but you already knew that.  The resorts should stay well maintained as Disney gets to charge the big fees right until the last use year. They want them back in perfect shape!
> 
> ...


John, why do you come to these boards? You obviously just like to spew negativity without one thing to back up your arguement.

I do like a variety of opinions, but I don't think it's right if you're coming just to bash DVC at every turn.

Isn't there a name for that??..


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## laxmom (Apr 9, 2008)

Janette said:


> Disney just declined the RFR on our Boadwalk purchase in one week. It was a pretty good contract with banked points and our same use month.


Congrats on your contract!!  We are waiting ROFR also - we are at the one week mark.

FWIW, the negativity isn't limited to the DVC.  Way to go, Carl.  There are just some posts that are better off ignored.


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## Janette (Apr 9, 2008)

I'm a very positive person. I can get my use out of these points with no problem. I'm a child at heart and plan many trips with my grandbabies to see Mickey. There is nothing better. We stayed at Beach Club in March(with Old Key West points)  and loved being able to walk into Epcot and ride the boat to Hollywood Studios. We do what is best for us and aren't folks who wait for the balloon to burst. We bought annual passes this year and will have no problem getting our money's worth out of them. You would be surprised at how much cooking we can do in a studio. We eat at least two meals a day in the room. We drive(5 hours) so it isn't a bad trip. We still love vacationing on HHI but it is nice to get out of dodge sometimes. I think computers are just speading up the process.


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## Steamboat Bill (Apr 9, 2008)

Carl D said:


> John, why do you come to these boards? You obviously just like to spew negativity without one thing to back up your arguement.
> 
> I do like a variety of opinions, but I don't think it's right if you're coming just to bash DVC at every turn.
> 
> Isn't there a name for that??..



I like many of his posts, but he also has a ax to grind with Westgate and my be 100% justified in his disdain for that company. I feel like a lone ranger trying to defend Westgate, but my experience is only limited to Park City as I have no desire to own or visit any of their other resorts.

His overblown criticism of DVC and the RTU is a mystery to me as Disney is THE ONLY timeshare company that the average mom and pop can buy and not lose their shirt when the ink dries on the contract.

With Marriott Orlando, you immediately lose about 40-50% of your money the second you seal the deal on the contract if you buy directly from Marriott.

With Disney you only lose about 10-15% or so as the resales prices are so high. If you keep a DVC contract for more than 3 years, you are into the break-even category if you ever sell.


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## timeos2 (Apr 9, 2008)

*It's only one thing. Always has been.*



Steamboat Bill said:


> I like many of his posts, but he also has a ax to grind with Westgate and my be 100% justified in his disdain for that company. I feel like a lone ranger trying to defend Westgate, but my experience is only limited to Park City as I have no desire to own or visit any of their other resorts.
> 
> His overblown criticism of DVC and the RTU is a mystery to me as Disney is THE ONLY timeshare company that the average mom and pop can buy and not lose their shirt when the ink dries on the contract.
> 
> ...



Bill - I was a beneficiary of the value of DVC at resale so my experience in resale is a positive.  My one quibble, and it really isn't much more than that, is the very statement you make above. You won't lose your shirt - others say you'll get back your purchase price or even make money. Sure, it can happen - it did to us - but telling people that will last is foolishness. As the years dwindle the value will drop. Period. End of story. Thinking you'll get the same amount out you put in when there is 20 years left or 15 or 10 is ridiculous. I think you agree - we just differ on how far the value - speaking only of resale value - will fall.  Naturally that ignores the value of the use - but you get that with any timeshare. 

Other than that issue what you buy today and what you'll have in 2042 is likely to be exactly the same.  DVC will most likely keep things in top shape for top fees - why not it's theirs in 2043 paid for by the previous buyers. I have no problem with that. I prefer not to buy in a system that has such total control  and can name the fees they want but thats just me.  If it is a value to the buyers why not enjoy it? Just don't think that the resale price will stay at the CURRENT price as that just doesn't make any sense.   

The rest is all personal choice. We used to LOVE the Disney experience. Now we are close to despising it. That was a family trend - others will certainly have a different opinion.  Thats why there are different resorts/parks/restaurants. To each his own.


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## AwayWeGo (Apr 9, 2008)

*You're Kidding, Right ?*




Carl D said:


> John, why do you come to these boards? You obviously just like to spew negativity without one thing to back up your arguement.


_Au contraire, mon frere._ 

_timeos2_ doesn't need anybody to stick up for him or go to bat on his behalf. (But I'm not letting that stop me.)  His the voice of experience -- good & bad experience, positive _and_ negative -- which he willingly passes along to his TUG-BBS friends & acquaintances so they won't have to learn everything the hard way.  That's not "spewing negativity."  That's sharing real-world experiences. 

Sure, he can be semi-tough in relating his WestGate story, but it's all based on actual experiences he's gone through with WestGate.  "Nothing to back up your argument?"  Hardly.  The opposite is true. 

Those who have ears, let them hear. 

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## Transit (Apr 9, 2008)

I think if Disney ever unlocked the mouse gates and truly built or aquired a decent amount of T/S locations outside the parks they could blow the doors open on the T/S industry.


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## timeos2 (Apr 9, 2008)

Transit said:


> I think if Disney ever unlocked the mouse gates and truly built or aquired a decent amount of T/S locations outside the parks they could blow the doors open on the T/S industry.



I must respectfully disagree. The only thing DVC has to offer is the parks. The couple places they have gone without being within one of their park properties they have not "blown the doors off" but have been rather run of the mill at a much higher price. They seem to know where their strength is and that the market is limited. They do a great job of serving that.  As a general timeshare company, something I doubt they'd even want to be, they would be below many others that do it as their focus.


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## Transit (Apr 9, 2008)

timeos2 said:


> I must respectfully disagree. The only thing DVC has to offer is the parks. The couple places they have gone without being within one of their park properties they have not "blown the doors off" but have been rather run of the mill at a much higher price. They seem to know where their strength is and that the market is limited. They do a great job of serving that.  As a general timeshare company, something I doubt they'd even want to be, they would be below many others that do it as their focus.



The reason I believe this is  Disney's abilty to bring TS to the mainstream. There is a certain trust with Disney and mainstream travelers that others TS companies simply do not have.Their points system is supurb.Resorts in the right location would prosper. Right now it is too much of a specialty item.The existing off property resorts are not bad but with others to compliment them it would be a great all around system.


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## rickandcindy23 (Apr 9, 2008)

AwayWeGo said:


> _Au contraire, mon frere._
> 
> _timeos2_ doesn't need anybody to stick up for him or go to bat on his behalf. (But I'm not letting that stop me.)  His the voice of experience -- good & bad experience, positive _and_ negative -- which he willingly passes along to his TUG-BBS friends & acquaintances so they won't have to learn everything the hard way.  That's not "spewing negativity."  That's sharing real-world experiences.
> 
> ...



I agree completely with you, Alan, as usual.   

John's advice is well taken, but I understand how a Disney Vacation Lover would be offended, because it seems that wherever you look on these boards, someone is offended.  People love what they own, and any criticism of their resorts cuts deeply.  I think that is where Bill and Carl are coming from.  

I personally get a big kick out of John's posts.  :rofl: I am a huge Disney fan and want to purchase points ourselves, which we are probably going to do here very soon, probably by the end of June.     John's posts don't deter anyone from Disney.  The experience is extra special when staying on property.


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## DVC Mike (Apr 9, 2008)

timeos2 said:


> I must respectfully disagree. The only thing DVC has to offer is the parks. The couple places they have gone without being within one of their park properties they have not "blown the doors off" but have been rather run of the mill at a much higher price. They seem to know where their strength is and that the market is limited. They do a great job of serving that. As a general timeshare company, something I doubt they'd even want to be, they would be below many others that do it as their focus.


 
Disney is trying to make DVC seem to be more than just the parks, as evidenced in their latest TV ad which is running in Chicago, New York City, and Philadelphia. 



> Persuading new buyers that Disney Vacation Club is about more than visiting Disney's theme parks.
> 
> Sybil Woolfork, Disney Vacation Club's director of marketing, said the television commercial aims to remove one of the "key barriers" keeping potential time-share buyers from considering Disney's program.
> 
> "It really does help to dispel the myth that Disney Vacation Club is only Disney," Woolfork said.


 
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-disney0908apr09,0,1464735.story


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## Janette (Apr 9, 2008)

We have owned a non-Disney timeshare in Orlando for many years and had great times staying there. Once we experienced Disney property, we knew we wanted our grandkids to have these experiences thus points were bought. We're headed back April 26 and are staying off property. I have to admit that I'm a little sad but I know we will have a good time. I'm not offened by any opinion. Timesharing isn't for everyone and Disney is not for everyone. I appreciate all opinions in that they may help someone decide what is best in their situation.


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## capjak (Apr 9, 2008)

Value of DVC?

Supply vs demand

I own BCV and have never put an ad up to rent it but have successfully rented 3 years worth of points.  It has turned into a renting machine that I have only enjoyed once myself...I ended up having to stay at two bottom feeders in Orlando cause had 0 DVC points (Marriott and HGVC) 

I like Marriott and HGVC but the feeling at BCV is different for us.

So I'm a little crazy but when the extended th OKW another 15 years.. I was thinking boy I hope they do the same for my BCV..so I predict that they will never let them fully expire in 2042


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