# Overdeveloped Timeshare Regions



## SiquePupi (Jun 26, 2011)

I am reading that it is always easier to get exchanges or deals in the overdeveloped areas, But it is hard to search where those areas are. Could you guys help identify some of these areas. The 2 most obvious ones that I found were:

Orlando & Plam Springs


----------



## sfwilshire (Jun 26, 2011)

Branson. Williamsburg (but still hard to get in the summer).

Sheila


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte (Jun 26, 2011)

Las Vegas
any of the primary tourist locales in Mexico


----------



## Ridewithme38 (Jun 26, 2011)

it seems like there is always a rental available for hawaii available...almost anywhere i look...

Is that a sign of being overdeveloped?


----------



## DeniseM (Jun 26, 2011)

No - it's a sign the Hawaii timeshares rent for a lot of $$$.  (I rent my Maui week for $3,600 - 2012 is already rented.)

Try searching for a Hawaii exchange - that is where you will see limited availability.


----------



## SiquePupi (Jun 26, 2011)

sfwilshire said:


> Branson. Williamsburg (but still hard to get in the summer).
> 
> Sheila



Are both hard to get in the summer or just Williamsburg?


----------



## tschwa2 (Jun 26, 2011)

Massanutten 
the desert in summer
the mountains in spring 
atlantic coast in the winter
Pennsylvania Poconos


----------



## Mel (Jun 26, 2011)

Overdeveloped is in the eyes of the beholder.  Most of these areas have high availability during some parts of the year - but that is true of most timeshare destinations.

Look for an area with seasonal demand, and look for availability in the slower seasons. 

Some ski resorts are nice in summer for other reasons, but have good availability in spring and fall, when there are few activities (and families with school-age kids don't travel).

Northern beach areas in winter.

Many areas October to early December, when kids across the county (and world) are in school.  

I question whether these are really deals though, because the demand is lower for a reason - they are less desirable times to travel, and even if the weather is nice, in some places many of the amenities and activities are shut down.


----------



## dioxide45 (Jun 26, 2011)

tschwa2 said:


> Massanutten
> the desert in summer
> the mountains in spring
> atlantic coast in the winter
> Pennsylvania Poconos



They can't really be overdeveloped for only parts of the year. You can't tear units down for parts of the year and rebuild them for others. If availability is persistent even during peak travel times, then it is over developed. Atlantic coast in summer is hard to get in to, mountains in ski season are hard to get. Even Orlando at Christmas and Easter isn't always a lock.

If any area wa truely over developed then developers wouldn't build more resorts there.


----------



## akp (Jun 26, 2011)

*Branson*

I think branson MO is probably considered heavily- or over- developed.


----------



## MichaelColey (Jun 26, 2011)

The areas generally considered overbuilt are Orlando, Branson, Las Vegas, Mexico and the Canary Islands. Even though an area may be overbuilt, there will still be some resorts that are very tough to get into and some times of the year where availability is very scarce.


----------



## hjtug (Jun 27, 2011)

dioxide45 said:


> If availability is persistent even during peak travel times, then it is over developed.



I would also consider it to be overdeveloped if good quality timeshares can't make a decent profit annually because of too numerous vacancies during non-peak times.  




> If any area wa truely over developed then developers wouldn't build more resorts there.



Developers have made mistakes.


----------



## dougp26364 (Jun 27, 2011)

I often find the term overdeveloped as being over rated. I own 6 weeks in "overdeveloped" locations but, if you know what you're doing they still trade very well. Even in well developed locations such as Las Vegas, Branson, Williamsburg or Orlando, a high demand resort and a popular week will always be in demand.


----------



## SiquePupi (Jun 27, 2011)

Mel said:


> Some ski resorts are nice in summer for other reasons, but have good availability in spring and fall, when there are few activities (and families with school-age kids don't travel).



I think that is more the definition of High-Med-Low demand seasons rather than over developed, as opposed to Orlando in the summer which is still fairly easy to get because of the fact that it is overdeveloped.


----------



## SiquePupi (Jun 27, 2011)

dougp26364 said:


> I often find the term overdeveloped as being over rated. I own 6 weeks in "overdeveloped" locations but, if you know what you're doing they still trade very well. Even in well developed locations such as Las Vegas, Branson, Williamsburg or Orlando, a high demand resort and a popular week will always be in demand.



This is a great point as far as trade value for someone owning in these areas; however aren't they still fairly easy to trade into a good resort as long as you are not too picky about getting the best of the best?


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte (Jun 27, 2011)

dioxide45 said:


> If any area wa truely over developed then developers wouldn't build more resorts there.


"Overdeveloped" to a developer means "not enough buyers".  Whether or not there is a glut of rooms available for exchange is irrelevant.


----------



## pedro47 (Jun 27, 2011)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> "Overdeveloped" to a developer means "not enough buyers".  Whether or not there is a glut of rooms available for exchange is irrelevant.



I like this definition better.  Try to exchange into Williamsburg,Branson, or Orlando from the end of May to end of August in a decent resort.   You are out of luck.


----------



## Ridewithme38 (Jun 27, 2011)

pedro47 said:


> I like this definition better.  Try to exchange into Williamsburg,Branson, or Orlando from the end of May to end of August in a decent resort.   You are out of luck.



See this is why i thought Hawaii, with Flight costs the way they are...people just aren't traveling there like they used to...you can find a rental (or exchange) at pretty much any time of the year...the high end rentals still rent i'm sure...But i'd bet alot of the mid-range and lower level resorts...never fill up


----------



## Millisara (Jun 27, 2011)

Is it bad to buy in an "overdeveloped " timeshare development.  I have a unit at Massanutten and considering to buy resale of one more. Should I just hold off and rent?  I went to a presentation recently and the salesperson and manager 'said' that they will be starting to lease units  instead of deeding lifetown ownership beginning in July.


----------



## CapriciousC (Jun 27, 2011)

Ridewithme38 said:


> See this is why i thought Hawaii, with Flight costs the way they are...people just aren't traveling there like they used to...you can find a rental (or exchange) at pretty much any time of the year...the high end rentals still rent i'm sure...But i'd bet alot of the mid-range and lower level resorts...never fill up



We were at Marriott's Waiohai 3 weeks ago and they were at 98% capacity.  Based on the crowds everywhere we went on Kauai and Maui, it didn't seem like travel to Hawaii was suffering that much.  Of course, I can't speak for all the resorts, but it seemed that this trip we encountered more crowds than any other trip we've taken there in the last 10 years.

We travel to Orlando five to six times a year for long weekends, and have never had trouble renting at the Marriott timeshares there, and for very reasonable rates.  Easter, summer, Thanksgiving, Christmas - we've always been able to find good deals on 2-bedrooms, even at the last minute.  

I would assume that availability for exchanging differs from availability for renting, though - does anyone know if they allocate the number of units available differently?


----------



## dougp26364 (Jun 27, 2011)

SiquePupi said:


> This is a great point as far as trade value for someone owning in these areas; however aren't they still fairly easy to trade into a good resort as long as you are not too picky about getting the best of the best?



So long as a person isn't to picky about the resort or it's location, then yes, they're usually relatively easy to get into. If you must have something like a Hilton, Marriott, Hyatt, Disney or other top name, those aren't so easy to get. 

I find that during peak demand times, the choices can be far fewer in markets that we consider saturated. For instance, I can almost always find some availability in Branson, MO but, in the summer months getting a two bedroom Marriott Willowridge Lodge can be difficult. Keeping in mind that I'm looking at online inventory. If I put in an exchange request, it might not be as difficult as I'm assuming.


----------



## am1 (Jun 27, 2011)

Developers will build at places where they will sell their units to people already on vacation.  Also places where the land is cheap and so is construction.  

Orlando does not need another timeshare but that does not mean they will stop building them there.


----------



## dougp26364 (Jun 27, 2011)

Millisara said:


> Is it bad to buy in an "overdeveloped " timeshare development.  I have a unit at Massanutten and considering to buy resale of one more. Should I just hold off and rent?  I went to a presentation recently and the salesperson and manager 'said' that they will be starting to lease units  instead of deeding lifetown ownership beginning in July.



If you're buying to use then it's a matter of opinion. If you're buying to exchange, I think I'd rather own somewhere with high demand and less availability. 

At this moment in time renting often looks better than owning. In years past one could argue the opposite was true. What will the future hold? That's anyone's guess. 

The issue right now with owning is MF's. If more owners default, those remaining must pick up the tab or default themselves. Once you own the week, you're stuck with it unless someone else is willing to take it from you. 

On the other hand, I don't think you'll ever see prices any cheaper as there are more people wanting to bail out at any price, even if they have to give the timeshare away and pay all transfer fee's. This is why PCC can come into a town and tell owners to give them upwards of $3,000 and they'll take their timeshare off their hands.........if it doesn't have a lein against it.


----------



## dougp26364 (Jun 27, 2011)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> "Overdeveloped" to a developer means "not enough buyers".  Whether or not there is a glut of rooms available for exchange is irrelevant.





pedro47 said:


> I like this definition better.  Try to exchange into Williamsburg,Branson, or Orlando from the end of May to end of August in a decent resort.   You are out of luck.



Maybe we should use the term "exchange saturated" rather than over developed?


----------



## timeos2 (Jun 27, 2011)

dougp26364 said:


> So long as a person isn't to picky about the resort or it's location, then yes, they're usually relatively easy to get into. If you must have something like a Hilton, Marriott, Hyatt, Disney or other top name, those aren't so easy to get.
> 
> I find that during peak demand times, the choices can be far fewer in markets that we consider saturated. For instance, I can almost always find some availability in Branson, MO but, in the summer months getting a two bedroom Marriott Willowridge Lodge can be difficult. Keeping in mind that I'm looking at online inventory. If I put in an exchange request, it might not be as difficult as I'm assuming.



Virtually anywhere where there is a WestgateWastegate you can be fairly sure that cheap rentals / sales will be available as they will have either overbuilt in their resort or sold to many many people that never should have bought and want desperately to get out or get a few bucks in rental.


----------



## Dave*H (Jun 27, 2011)

timeos2 said:


> Virtually anywhere where there is a WestgateWastegate you can be fairly sure that cheap rentals / sales will be available as they will have either overbuilt in their resort or sold to many many people that never should have bought and want desperately to get out or get a few bucks in rental.


I would think Park City would be the exception.  What about the 2 in Miami?


----------



## MichaelColey (Jun 27, 2011)

dougp26364 said:


> If you're buying to use then it's a matter of opinion. If you're buying to exchange, I think I'd rather own somewhere with high demand and less availability.


Sometimes that works.  Sometimes it doesn't.  Consider NYC, for instance.  There's high demand and very little availability (only four timeshares that I know of).  MFs are typically around $2k/year, and even if you get 60 TPU, that's over $30 per TPU.  A good lockout (split into two units) of a prime summer week in an "overdeveloped" area can get you a similar number of TPUs for a third of the annual MFs.


----------



## sfwilshire (Jun 28, 2011)

SiquePupi said:


> Are both hard to get in the summer or just Williamsburg?



I never watched Branson, so I can't really say.

Sheila


----------



## dougp26364 (Jun 28, 2011)

MichaelColey said:


> Sometimes that works.  Sometimes it doesn't.  Consider NYC, for instance.  There's high demand and very little availability (only four timeshares that I know of).  MFs are typically around $2k/year, and even if you get 60 TPU, that's over $30 per TPU.  A good lockout (split into two units) of a prime summer week in an "overdeveloped" area can get you a similar number of TPUs for a third of the annual MFs.



Good point.


----------



## dougp26364 (Jun 28, 2011)

SiquePupi said:


> Are both hard to get in the summer or just Williamsburg?





sfwilshire said:


> I never watched Branson, so I can't really say.
> 
> Sheila



With Branson it depends on how far out your willing to book. From 10 to 12 months in advance there's usually decent availability. 6 to 9 months not so much and less than 6 months in advance you'll be limited as to quality and size of units. 

But, that's just what I see online. Online, you're seeing the left overs that haven't been matched to exchange requests. If a person were to put in an exchange request, it would be matched without the general public seeing the match. So availability for both Williamsburg and Branson could be better than what we can see online. 

Generally speaking, if you can see availability online, then there is more supply than there is demand. Thus, a saturated exchange market or, over developed. Many of the places listed fit that bill because we can typically see those exchanges online, meaning there wasn't great enough demand to match them to requests that have been made. Greater supply than exchanger requests or demand.

I own one Branson week that I regularly exchange. In fact, we've only stayed there once since buying the week. It's at a resort with no amenities on site. It's a lower rated resort and it's a one bedroom unit. 

Still, by booking a high demand summer week I can still get nice exchanges. We've exchanged into a 2 bedroom summer week at Lake Tahoe and Breckenridge. We've also exchanged back into Branson, moving up in resort quality and size of unit but exchanging into shoulder season (fall/winter) using a higher demand summer week.

For us this works but, we understand that we're not going to get a presidents week at a popular ski resort or a NYE week in Las Vegas or any sort of higher demand week at top resorts in Hawaii with this particular ownership. We feel that we're doing good trading up into nicer resorts during shoulder seasons rather than trying to trade for a unit the same size or smaller into higher demand times. 

You really need to ask yourself, what do you expect to get for exchanges if exchanges are what you're looking for. Are you willing to except smaller units than what you own to get into higher end resorts during higher demand times? Are you willing to travel during shoulder season or off season to stay in higher end resorts and maybe trade up in size? If you buy cheap and you buy in well devloped area's, you'll do fine up to a point. If you're expecting to use that week for the highest demand times, you're likely to be disappointed.

FWIW, these are the exchanges we've made with our Branson 1 bedroom unit.

Grand Regency Resort at Thousand Hills 
GTO
Unit: G211E (1 bedroom)
Week: 22 Sat, June 02, 2012
Sat, June 09, 2012 

Confirmed To: 
 Grand Timber Lodge • GTR
Unit: 2BEDB (2 bedrooms)
Week:  Sun, June ( I don't wish to post exact dates online for a future reservation)

----------------------------------------------
 Grand Regency Resort at Thousand Hills 
GTO
Unit: G211E (1 bedroom)
Week: 22 Sat, June 04, 2011
Sat, June 11, 2011 

Confirmed To: 
 Grand Lodge on Peak 7 • GP7
Unit: 2BEDA (2 bedrooms)
Week:  Sat, September, 2011  (another future reservation which I don't want to post exact dates online)   

----------------------------------------------- 
Grand Regency Resort at Thousand Hills 
GTO
Unit: G211E (1 bedroom)
Week: 22 Sat, May 29, 2010
Sat, June 05, 2010

 The Ridge Tahoe • RGT
Unit: 2BED (2 bedrooms)
Week: 30 Sat, July 24, 2010 
Sat, July 31, 2010   

----------------------------------------------
Grand Regency Resort at Thousand Hills 
GTO
Unit: G113B (1 bedroom)
Week: 28 Sat, July 11, 2009
Sat, July 18, 2009 

 Marriott's Willow Ridge Lodge • MHB
Unit: DTOGV (Efficiency)
Week: 49 Thu, December 04, 2008 
Thu, December 11, 2008   

----------------------------------------------
Grand Regency Resort at Thousand Hills 
GTO
Unit: G221E (1 bedroom)
Week: 51 Sat, December 20, 2008
Sat, December 27, 2008

 Marriott's Willow Ridge Lodge • MHB
Unit: DTOVI (2 bedrooms)
Week: 49 Thu, December 04, 2008 
Thu, December 11, 2008


---------------------------------------------
Grand Regency Resort at Thousand Hills 
GTO
Unit: G131B (1 bedroom)
Week: 28 Sat, July 14, 2007
Sat, July 21, 2007 

 The Suites at Fall Creek • SPF
Unit: UUU2 (2 bedrooms)
Week: 15 Fri, April 11, 2008 
Fri, April 18, 2008


----------



## MichaelColey (Jun 28, 2011)

For Branson (like most "overdeveloped" areas), if you divide the resorts into three groups:

1) The Best of the Best - These are hard to find any time of the year and virtually impossible in peak times.  (I've had an ongoing search for one particular resort ANYTIME in the summer, for almost a year.  Not a single match.)
2) The Rest of the Best - These are fairly easy to get in non-peak times with enough advance planning and flexibility.  During peak times, they sometimes pop up but disappear quickly.  (For instance, there is only one of my "top 10" Branson resorts that has a single 2BR unit available between now and 9/30.  One resort has several units next summer.)
3) Everything Else - These are very easy to get in non-peak times with advance planning.  Last minute availability during prime times is hit and miss.  (For instance, there is NOTHING available in Branson in July, but plenty in August.)


----------



## dougp26364 (Jun 28, 2011)

MichaelColey said:


> For Branson (like most "overdeveloped" areas), if you divide the resorts into three groups:
> 
> 1) The Best of the Best - These are hard to find any time of the year and virtually impossible in peak times.  (I've had an ongoing search for one particular resort ANYTIME in the summer, for almost a year.  Not a single match.)
> 2) The Rest of the Best - These are fairly easy to get in non-peak times with enough advance planning and flexibility.  During peak times, they sometimes pop up but disappear quickly.  (For instance, there is only one of my "top 10" Branson resorts that has a single 2BR unit available between now and 9/30.  One resort has several units next summer.)
> 3) Everything Else - These are very easy to get in non-peak times with advance planning.  Last minute availability during prime times is hit and miss.  (For instance, there is NOTHING available in Branson in July, but plenty in August.)



I guess it would be important to know which exchange company your using and what you're using to search. 

For instance, one reason we dropped our RCI account was lack of availability for Branson, even in shoulder season using a relatively high value HGVC week. 

I.I. appears to have better availability and, we've never had any problems getting a top rated resort in the Spring or Fall. Summer is a little more difficult but not impossible. But you also have to consider that we were typically searching with Marriott weeks and those weeks generally have pretty decent exchange power.

As it stands now, we own two weeks in Branson and can easily do internal exchanges using our Diamond Resorts ownership. So I don't search as much for availability. Most of our trips now are weekend trips reserving through DRI for a few nights rather than an entire week. Every other year we use our ownership at French Quarter to stay for a full week and, we can always use our week at Grand Regency anytime we decide we can't get a decent enough exchange to warrent paying the exchange fee.


----------



## dougp26364 (Jun 28, 2011)

Ran a quick check using our 1 bedroom Polo Towers Sept week to see what I.I. would show online.

For 2011, nothing in June or July but decent availability for studio and 1 bedroom units for the last two weeks of August. This is rather short notice for a popular summer family destination. The very top resorts had no availability

I also looked for 2012 and there is very strong availability across the board from studio units to 2 bedroom units and from the lowest resorts to the top brand resorts. July seems to be the toughest month to exchange into even though I.I.'s trade index indicates week 22 is the highest demand/lowest availability. 

While I've never had an issue with phantom inventory with I.I., I didn't go through the booking process to be certain what I saw was indeed available for exchange. I have read others who have had issues with phantom inventory when they saw an exchange they wanted to book.


----------



## Ridewithme38 (Jun 28, 2011)

dougp26364 said:


> Ran a quick check using our 1 bedroom Polo Towers Sept week to see what I.I. would show online.
> 
> For 2011, nothing in June or July but decent availability for studio and 1 bedroom units for the last two weeks of August. This is rather short notice for a popular summer family destination. The very top resorts had no availability



I only have access to the RCI Extra Vacations and Last Call...But for Branson i see

July:

Wyndham Branson at the Meadows (#3294)	
1 Bedroom 4 (2) Mini Fri 15-Jul-2011 Fri 22-Jul-2011 USD 849.99	 
1 Bedroom 4 (2) Mini Fri 22-Jul-2011 Fri 29-Jul-2011 USD 849.99

The Falls Village (#3641)	
1 Bedroom 4 (4) Full Fri 01-Jul-2011 Fri 08-Jul-2011 USD 296.99

AugustFeeling too lazy to post them all)

11 Resorts (68 available units)


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 8, 2011)

Overbuilt is actually objective rather than subjective, and is based on constant availibility yearround or close to yearround. It is all based on numbers.

Bootleg who had access to RCI's computers as an RCI employee, always listed four areas in the US as overbuilt:
Orlando
Branson
Williamsburg
Massanutten

In Europe, I would add:
Canary Islands
Costa del Sol in Spain
Hungary
Finland

On the old TimeshareBeat / Street Talk sites, which were used mainly by people in the timeshare industry rather than by timeshare members, the issue of being overbuilt was discussed from time to time, and Orlando and Branson were always accepted as being the biggest examples of being overbuilt.  The interesting discussion was of areas that were becoming overbuilt, and Las Vegas was one that there was a lot of agreement fell into that category.  Some argued that Hawaii was too, but others disagreed.  What I liked about discussions there was that timeshare professionals did not get defensive on this subject based on where they worked, unlike some timeshare members who do tend to get defensive based on where they own.





Mel said:


> Overdeveloped is in the eyes of the beholder.  Most of these areas have high availability during some parts of the year - but that is true of most timeshare destinations.
> 
> Look for an area with seasonal demand, and look for availability in the slower seasons.
> 
> ...


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 8, 2011)

MichaelColey said:


> Sometimes that works.  Sometimes it doesn't.  Consider NYC, for instance.  There's high demand and very little availability (only four timeshares that I know of).  MFs are typically around $2k/year, and even if you get 60 TPU, that's over $30 per TPU.  A good lockout (split into two units) of a prime summer week in an "overdeveloped" area can get you a similar number of TPUs for a third of the annual MFs.



. . . but the fact that they are given similar numbers is proof positive of the corruption of the Points Lite valuation system.


----------



## timeos2 (Jul 8, 2011)

MichaelColey said:


> For Branson (like most "overdeveloped" areas), if you divide the resorts into three groups:
> 
> 1) The Best of the Best - These are hard to find any time of the year and virtually impossible in peak times.  (I've had an ongoing search for one particular resort ANYTIME in the summer, for almost a year.  Not a single match.)
> 2) The Rest of the Best - These are fairly easy to get in non-peak times with enough advance planning and flexibility.  During peak times, they sometimes pop up but disappear quickly.  (For instance, there is only one of my "top 10" Branson resorts that has a single 2BR unit available between now and 9/30.  One resort has several units next summer.)
> 3) Everything Else - These are very easy to get in non-peak times with advance planning.  Last minute availability during prime times is hit and miss.  (For instance, there is NOTHING available in Branson in July, but plenty in August.)



 As always there is a group that wants everyone to think that an area like Branson, Las Vegas or Orlando are so packed with resorts that it is a given you can get time there virtually on demand. As mentioned here that is never the case. Despite tons of inventory deposited if you want a specific resort or time you have to act in a timely way. If you don't care where or when you visit then things are much easier but still you can't wait too long or you'll be left with nothing.  Orlando and for the most part Las Vegas has year round demand while other "overbuilt areas" do have seasonality that means there tend to be units during those times that may go unclaimed.  If you don't mind off season stays those are out there virtually on demand at even the best  resorts.

Don't fall for the overbuilt line. If you want a top resort at the best times you have to reserve early or own the use rights. Otherwise you may be able to get a unit but the date, size and resort will be whatever leftover there is not what most people really want. That may be good enough but it is never a gimme in any area no matter how "overbuilt" it may be declared. The reason those areas get so many resorts and credits/points assigned is that people want to go there not to some off season area no matter how nice the resort or the in season times may be.


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 8, 2011)

The key is not how many are deposited.  It is how many are sitting online in availibility.  As has been posted before, the availibility at ONE resort in Orlando is usually roughly equal to the availibility of all 180+ resorts in the entire country of South Africa *combined*.

It is also just a matter of what people think.  They can look online at the numbers and *know*.  Or in Bootleg's case, he could take a long experience of looking online everyday at work at RCI for what their computers showed him.  

Even with the cult around DVC, there is inventory online much of the time, and that is certainly the group of Orlando resorts with the best supply / demand curve.  Compare that with London, for example, where there is never any online availibility *any* time of the year. Or with some other parts of southern England where inventory only rarely shows up any time of the year.





timeos2 said:


> As always there is a group that wants everyone to think that an area like Branson, Las Vegas or Orlando are so packed with resorts that it is a given you can get time there virtually on demand. As mentioned here that is never the case. Despite tons of inventory deposited if you want a specific resort or time you have to act in a timely way. If you don't care where or when you visit then things are much easier but still you can't wait too long or you'll be left with nothing.  Orlando and for the most part Las Vegas has year round demand while other "overbuilt areas" do have seasonality that means there tend to be units during those times that may go unclaimed.  If you don't mind off season stays those are out there virtually on demand at even the best  resorts.
> 
> Don't fall for the overbuilt line. If you want a top resort at the best times you have to reserve early or own the use rights. Otherwise you may be able to get a unit but the date, size and resort will be whatever leftover there is not what most people really want. That may be good enough but it is never a gimme in any area no matter how "overbuilt" it may be declared. The reason those areas get so many resorts and credits/points assigned is that people want to go there not to some off season area no matter how nice the resort or the in season times may be.


----------



## timeos2 (Jul 8, 2011)

Carolinian said:


> The key is not how many are deposited.  It is how many are sitting online in availibility.  As has been posted before, the availibility at ONE resort in Orlando is usually roughly equal to the availibility of all 180+ resorts in the entire country of South Africa *combined*.
> 
> It is also just a matter of what people think.  They can look online at the numbers and *know*.  Or in Bootleg's case, he could take a long experience of looking online everyday at work at RCI for what their computers showed him.
> 
> Even with the cult around DVC, there is inventory online much of the time, and that is certainly the group of Orlando resorts with the best supply / demand curve.  Compare that with London, for example, where there is never any online availibility *any* time of the year. Or with some other parts of southern England where inventory only rarely shows up any time of the year.



I hope you know I appreciate your input & sharing your vast timeshare knowledge but I do suggest it js time to retire Bootleg & kther sources that now date back well over 5 years plus. Things have changed dramatically since then not only in timeshare but the economy & exchange companies /systems as to make 5+ year old facts outdated and probably changed.  As a reference they may hold some value but the days of them reflecting current status are long gone. Like yesterdays newspaper they have very limited application now.


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 8, 2011)

The same huge constant glut of inventory from the same places still sits in the spacebank, so the facts do not seem to have changed.  Wishful thinking does not make it so.




timeos2 said:


> I hope you know I appreciate your input & sharing your vast timeshare knowledge but I do suggest it js time to retire Bootleg & kther sources that now date back well over 5 years plus. Things have changed dramatically since then not only in timeshare but the economy & exchange companies /systems as to make 5+ year old facts outdated and probably changed.  As a reference they may hold some value but the days of them reflecting current status are long gone. Like yesterdays newspaper they have very limited application now.


----------



## Mel (Jul 8, 2011)

You have to consider what comprises that "glut" of inventory.

Is it mostly at one resort?  If so, does that mean the whole area is in oversupply, or that one resort?

What size are the rooms that are available?  Are they the typical size most people want?  Look at Kissimmee (Orlando area) with 4465 units available.  If you want to travel with 5 or more people, that drops to 2525 (and that still might be a 1BR unit.  If you want 3BR, it drops to 205 units over the next 2 years - hardly always available.  And more than 12% of the Kissimmee units are at one particular resort - 10% are 1BR units that sleep 4 at that resort. 

The combination of location, unit size and date is far more important than whether anyone considers a particular location overdeveloped.  That combination drives demand.  Christmas in Orlando is always going to out-trade November on the beach, even if that beach only has one small timeshare resort.


----------



## AwayWeGo (Jul 8, 2011)

*Glut.*

What the Orlando-Kissimmee area has is a year-round glut of vacationers of all ages. 

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


----------



## ampaholic (Jul 8, 2011)

AwayWeGo said:


> What the Orlando-Kissimmee area has is a year-round glut of vacationers of all ages.
> 
> -- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​



Heck, most of Florida has vacationers of one sort or another.

Another factor (you know who) doesn't acknowledge is that the brains behind Marriott, Wyndham, Starwood, Hilton, Hyatt, Disney and others are _*ALL*_ in favor of having plenty of units available in the area.

With that many brainiacs in favor - who am I to oppose?

Go Florida!


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 9, 2011)

What you neglect to point out is that 3BR's are not very common anywhere.

And, again, the contrast is with a place like London where you never see even a studio online for any time of the year.




Mel said:


> You have to consider what comprises that "glut" of inventory.
> 
> Is it mostly at one resort?  If so, does that mean the whole area is in oversupply, or that one resort?
> 
> ...


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 9, 2011)

AwayWeGo said:


> What the Orlando-Kissimmee area has is a year-round glut of vacationers of all ages.
> 
> -- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​



Oversupply of timeshare is based on TWO factors, supply AND demand.  Looking only at the demand factor tells nothing.  Orlando does have a very large demand, but an even larger supply, and therein lies the rub.

As to yearround vacationing, have you ever heard of hurricane season????????  And although some adults do seem to go to the mouse on their own, the biggest draw is from parents taking their children, and when children are in school, that also impacts the number of vacationers visiting the mouse.


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 9, 2011)

Well, no one has contended that all of Florida is overbuilt, just Orlando.

Indeed the supply / demand curves for places like Sanibel / Captiva and the Keys seem  to be some of the strongest in the industry.

And of course, developers build based on the demographics of tour flow, and young families going to see the mouse is a great demograhic for tour flows.  Their motive is making sales not building timeshares where there is a demand for exchanges.




ampaholic said:


> Heck, most of Florida has vacationers of one sort or another.
> 
> Another factor (you know who) doesn't acknowledge is that the brains behind Marriott, Wyndham, Starwood, Hilton, Hyatt, Disney and others are _*ALL*_ in favor of having plenty of units available in the area.
> 
> ...


----------



## ampaholic (Jul 9, 2011)

Carolinian said:


> -snip-
> And of course, developers build based on the demographics of tour flow, and young families going to see the mouse is a great demograhic for tour flows.  Their motive is making sales not building timeshares where there is a demand for exchanges.



I agree the developers are after sales first and they build what will sell - but if you chum the water for sharks, even the sea gulls will be attracted (try it).

What I mean is VV@P HOA benefits from mouse-land to the same degree as the developer does. No mouse-land = no exchanges.


----------



## AwayWeGo (Jul 9, 2011)

*The HOA Is The Developer & The Developer Is The HOA.  (So It Goes.)*




ampaholic said:


> VV@P HOA benefits from mouse-land to the same degree as the developer does.


At Vacation Village At Parkway, the HOA & the developer are effectively both the same.  

It will be a long time -- if ever -- before the regular walking-around unit owners of Vacation Village At Parkway wrest control of the HOA away from the timeshare company. 

_Full Disclosure*:*_  We bought two _-- 2 --_ dinky eBay triennial points units at Vacation Village At Parkway recently (for next to nothing).   

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


----------



## ampaholic (Jul 9, 2011)

AwayWeGo said:


> At Vacation Village At Parkway, the HOA & the developer are effectively both the same.
> 
> It will be a long time -- if ever -- before the regular walking-around unit owners of Vacation Village At Parkway wrest control of the HOA away from the timeshare company.
> 
> ...



Hahaha - good one Alan -  

Let me rephrase so you and others don't *miss* my real point:

The HOA of Cypress Pointe on Lake Buena Vista benefit from mouse-land to the same degree as does the developer at either Cypress Pointe or VV@P as do the walking around owners at either Cypress Point or VV@P.

Just about anyone in the "lodging business" in any way in central Florida benefits from mouse-land.

Mouse-land is the engine that drives the level of "HAPPY" and keeps it pegged right where it is for all involved even slightly in the "lodging business".

I also own two timeshares in Orlando including one of those dinky triennials at VV@P (full disclosure)


----------



## timeos2 (Jul 9, 2011)

Here is an interesting report on occupancy in the Orlando area. As you can see timeshare is the strongest segment in occupancy but not daily rate. An average of nearly 70% year round for all timeshares - good and bad. That is an incredible number for 100% of the year. Truly a non-seasonal demand that doesn't exist in many areas.  

As for hurricane season most people aren't too savvy about that.  They seldom think about a hurricane as a possibility when they book. The September low period is due far more to schools being in session everywhere rather than the possibility of a hurricane occurring. The odds are in the favor of those who think it can't or won't happen. It is a disruption when it does occur but even that is limited to a few weeks.  Overall it isn't the factor that perhaps it should be.


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 9, 2011)

ampaholic said:


> I agree the developers are after sales first and they build what will sell - but if you chum the water for sharks, even the sea gulls will be attracted (try it).
> 
> What I mean is VV@P HOA benefits from mouse-land to the same degree as the developer does. No mouse-land = no exchanges.



Developers do not even consider exchanges when they decide where to build.  It is all about tour flow.  What they sell these days is the exchange program, and the location of the resort really does not matter.  Orlando is the ideal tour flow because it is young families.  An area that attracts primarily retirees would have a much less attractive demograhic for timeshare developers.

And if VV@P even has an HOA it is firmly under developer control.


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 9, 2011)

Less than 70% occupancy yearround is really not that impressive.  There are lots of places that blow that number away.  Without even leaving Florida, two of them would be Sanibel / Captiva and the Keys.

And how much of that occupancy is generating by cheap RCI cash rentals and cut rate points lite deals?

When compared to rare resorts with close to 100% occupancy, and without any cut rate deals, it is clear that Orlando is way overpointed as to points lite awarded for deposit.




timeos2 said:


> Here is an interesting report on occupancy in the Orlando area. As you can see timeshare is the strongest segment in occupancy but not daily rate. An average of nearly 70% year round for all timeshares - good and bad. That is an incredible number for 100% of the year. Truly a non-seasonal demand that doesn't exist in many areas.
> 
> As for hurricane season most people aren't too savvy about that.  They seldom think about a hurricane as a possibility when they book. The September low period is due far more to schools being in session everywhere rather than the possibility of a hurricane occurring. The odds are in the favor of those who think it can't or won't happen. It is a disruption when it does occur but even that is limited to a few weeks.  Overall it isn't the factor that perhaps it should be.


----------



## timeos2 (Jul 9, 2011)

Carolinian said:


> Less than 70% occupancy yearround is really not that impressive.  There are lots of places that blow that number away.  Without even leaving Florida, two of them would be Sanibel / Captiva and the Keys.
> 
> And how much of that occupancy is generating by cheap RCI cash rentals and cut rate points lite deals?
> 
> When compared to rare resorts with close to 100% occupancy, and without any cut rate deals, it is clear that Orlando is way overpointed as to points lite awarded for deposit.



What is the year round average for most beach areas? Other seasonal areas? No where near 70% I can say with certainty.  

There are areas in Fl that have tremendous demand and occupancy as you mention but even most of those have periods where it's not uncommon to find plenty of empty units.  The straight line, nearly year round use of and demand for Orlando - due mostly to the theme parks - virtually stands alone. It's a big reason why the values are where they are.  

Cheap RCI/II and other rentals are not unique to Orlando. In fact there are other areas where they likely make up far more of the total like Branson, Hilton Head, Williamsburg and others.  There are incredible amounts of inexpensive rentals 9 months a year in those areas despite far less overall inventory.


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 10, 2011)

I guess my perspective is mostly from the OBX.  We had essentially full (other than the occaisional own to use member who for some reason could not use his week that year) from Spring Break in March through Thanksgiving, and enough occupancy in the remaining winter period, that yearround occupancy would be well over 70%.

And of course, if you are looking at places like London, Paris, Venice, New York, San Francisco, Vienna, Florence, Charleston, etc. you are looking at real close to 100%.  






timeos2 said:


> What is the year round average for most beach areas? Other seasonal areas? No where near 70% I can say with certainty.
> 
> There are areas in Fl that have tremendous demand and occupancy as you mention but even most of those have periods where it's not uncommon to find plenty of empty units.  The straight line, nearly year round use of and demand for Orlando - due mostly to the theme parks - virtually stands alone. It's a big reason why the values are where they are.
> 
> Cheap RCI/II and other rentals are not unique to Orlando. In fact there are other areas where they likely make up far more of the total like Branson, Hilton Head, Williamsburg and others.  There are incredible amounts of inexpensive rentals 9 months a year in those areas despite far less overall inventory.


----------



## timeos2 (Jul 10, 2011)

Carolinian said:


> I guess my perspective is mostly from the OBX.  We had essentially full (other than the occaisional own to use member who for some reason could not use his week that year) from Spring Break in March through Thanksgiving, and enough occupancy in the remaining winter period, that yearround occupancy would be well over 70%.
> 
> And of course, if you are looking at places like London, Paris, Venice, New York, San Francisco, Vienna, Florence, Charleston, etc. you are looking at real close to 100%.



OBX or any other seasonal beach area over 70%? Lets see a report that says that with any authoritive back up.  You are kidding yourself if you really believe  that.


----------



## Carolinian (Jul 10, 2011)

timeos2 said:


> OBX or any other seasonal beach area over 70%? Lets see a report that says that with any authoritive back up.  You are kidding yourself if you really believe  that.



Actually, I believe what I see.  The resort at which I served on the HOA board had a week by week usage log, which showed whether each unit was used by the owner, rented, exchanged or vacant and the name of the occupant.  I am well aware as to the usage at my resort.

As to other resorts in the area, I just have the info from managers or board members.  I did not look at any records, but I have no reason to disbeleive them.  This is just the beachfront resorts in the central OBX.  The dynamics at Duck or at the off the beach resorts at Kitty Hawk may be somewhat different.  Anecdotally, one reason I have to beleive them is the difficulty of finding vacant units for board members during the annual meetings in the Fall. Four, and at times five HOA's worked together to find vacant units for board meetings for our board members.  Two of these resorts including mine had annual meetings in October and November, and I cannot ever remember between five resorts when they were able to find units for the entire board. Frequently it was only the HOA president who got a timeshare unit and the others had to make do with hotel rooms.  Even that could be tricky.  One year, while I was First VP, we had a new manager who kept hoping too late that units would come through, and of course they did not, so she had to scramble at the last minute to reserve hotel rooms.  All the close by hotels were booked solid, so I ended up at a hotel 6 or 7 miles down the beach for that annual meeting and following board meeting.  We always had a board meeting in mid January because that was one time when we could reliably count on having a unit availible for all board members, although that often took using units at more than one resort.

One thing you might not be aware of is that Fall is the main fishing season on the OBX.  I am not a fisherman myself, but we had many members who were, and we had substantially fewer own to exchang members in the Fall than in the Spring.  Fall was higher for own to use membership than any time but summer. We had a fair number of members from Florida, and they were mostly fishemen who owned to use during the Fall.   Fall is when fishing is at its peak on the OBX, and our Florida members said the OBX fishing easily topped that in their own state.  From what I have been told, that has something to do with the Gulf Stream and Labrador Current meeting off of Cape Hatteras.

The occupancy rate also has to do with the fact that it has been well over a decade since any developer was marketing oceanfront timeshares on the OBX.  The price of oceanfront land is simply too high for any new oceanfront timeshare development.  So, it is largely a supply issue.  Unlike mouse front Orlando, there is simply no more OBX oceanfront timeshare being built and it has been a while since any new supply was added.  Since the last big hurricane, two oceanfront timeshares have bit the dust, due to a combination of a former developer trying to crash them and a sticky fingered management company (same one on the latter for both resorts) playing games with insurance proceeds, and that has further decreased supply.  The only developer still selling is BIS-Kitty Hawk, which is a drive-to-the-beach resort.  Peppertree Equivest had purchased a site for a new timeshare on the OBX before it got into financial trouble and that land was sold at the courthouse door, but that site was way off the beach.  After that Fairfield opened a sales offce and was trying to find a site for a new timeshare, but found nothing oceanfront and even struck out on finding a suitable off the beach site.

The supply side of the equation on the OBX is very much the opposite of that in Orlando.


----------



## vckempson (Jul 10, 2011)

timeos2 said:


> OBX or any other seasonal beach area over 70%? Lets see a report that says that with any authoritive back up.  You are kidding yourself if you really believe  that.



If they are 100% occupied from March thru November, (just assuming, ok) and they had 0% occupancy the other 3 months, that's an average of 75% occupancy right there.  Let's say they were 90% for only 6 months and 50% average for the other six months, then that still works out to an overall 70% occupancy.  

That's not too much of a stretch, to me.


----------

