# Aulani - is it going to fly?



## ocdb8r (Jul 11, 2011)

Curious what the Tug community thinks of Aulani and whether or not it's going to be a Disney success?  

It's interesting to see DVC once again venturing into the non-park timeshare waters given the limited success (some might say failure) of the HHI and Vero Beach resorts.  It seems the investment at Aulani is pretty substantial and I have no doubt Disney will do its best to capitalize on Hawaiiana, a nice beachfront location, and substantial internal entertainment.  However, I'm curious if others think it's going to fly?  It seems there will be a substantial number of units built at the resort - will they succeed in selling these to regular Hawaii visitors or will they be dependent on the much more sizeable (compared to when HHI and Vero Beach were built) DVC family to take an occasional punt and head to Hawaii?  How well will the Hotel do given the competition from DVC point rentals?  

Just not sure I understand how this resort fits into the Disney big picture.


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## BocaBum99 (Jul 11, 2011)

It will be successful because it is targeting the Japanese tourist market who love to pay top dollar for a top brand.  Whatever DVC owners don't use will simply be rented to Japanese tourists for a massive profit.

Why do you think HGVC is expanding so aggressively in Waikiki?


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## ocdb8r (Jul 11, 2011)

BocaBum99 said:


> It will be successful because it is targeting the Japanese tourist market who love to pay top dollar for a top brand.  Whatever DVC owners don't use will simply be rented to Japanese tourists for a massive profit.
> 
> Why do you think HGVC is expanding so aggressively in Waikiki?



1) I think this is a bit presumptuous...it's like saying any project in Hawaii would be successful if it targets Japanese tourists.

2) Japanese tourism to Hawaii has been on the decline since 1996, a trend visible to Disney when they decided to build the resort.  Seems odd to target a declining market.

3) The earthquake and tsunami in Japan is likely to have some short to medium term effect on their tourism to the islands...is this sufficient to put a sizeable kink in Disney's plan?

I will give you that the relative strength of the yen might make things attractive, I'm just not convinced the Japanese market alone really explains Disney's thinking for this resort.

As for HGVC, I don't really see that the Grand Waikikian has paid off yet...and the recent purchase at the Beach Walk hardly seems to fit with a top dollar resort given it will be off the beach and without a very nice pool facility.

Anyhow, I didn't intend to turn this into a Japanese market debate....more interested in the overall position of the resort in the portfolio (unless everyone thinks it to address the Japanese market and I'm just way off base...)


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## bnoble (Jul 11, 2011)

I think the Japanese market is certainly a hedge, and there are components of the resort that are clearly designed for that market (e.g. the "event week" model).  

But, DVC has been marketing Aulani to US customers somewhat more aggressively too.  I view it as a "test pancake."  Disney brass has made no bones about their desire to expand "beyond the berm" of the theme parks.  The cruise line has been phenomenally successful.  The guided tour business much less so.  And, DVC has not done well beyond the berm at all.  But, that's largely because, historically, Disney has tried to build their two existing non-park resorts on the cheap---less expensive locations, an average set of amenities, etc.  

Aulani looks to be a departure from that model---Oahu might not be my first choice in Hawaii, but if you're going to be there, the Ko Olina development is not a bad choice.  And, the amenities at the resort look like they will be first class.  

If it sells domestically, then expect to see more DVC resorts in new locations.  If it doesn't, well, there is always the Japanese/rental market.  I suspect the eventual disposition of the National Harbor/Maryland property is going to hinge on how well this goes.  Should be interesting, either way.


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## BocaBum99 (Jul 11, 2011)

ocdb8r said:


> 1) I think this is a bit presumptuous...it's like saying any project in Hawaii would be successful if it targets Japanese tourists.
> 
> 2) Japanese tourism to Hawaii has been on the decline since 1996, a trend visible to Disney when they decided to build the resort.  Seems odd to target a declining market.
> 
> ...



It's presumptuous for you, a non-American living 10 time zones away knows more about the Hawaii market than someone in the business who lives here.


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## ocdb8r (Jul 11, 2011)

BocaBum99 said:


> It's presumptuous for you, a non-American living 10 time zones away knows more about the Hawaii market than someone in the business who lives here.



Wow, yet again, presumptuous.  I am American, born and raised in southern California, and lived there until 3 years ago.  I've visited 6 of the Hawaiian islands and can count more than 25 trips to the islands.  I have family who live on both the Big Island and Maui.  

I never disputed that the Japanese tourist market is significant for Hawaii.  Certainly their spend exceeds that of the average American visitor.  However, that doesn't mean that every project that targets this market is guaranteed success.  Nor does it address the reality that it is a declining market.  The 80's are over BocaBum...the Japanese are not running around buying up everything that borders the Pacific anymore.  

Regardless, thanks for the very valuable contribution to the thread.  Even had I been British, your consideration of the logic in my posts (regardless of its origins) was incredibly well thought out and useful.


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## rickandcindy23 (Jul 11, 2011)

I would love to buy some Aulani points later, when the price goes down.  Rick and I have only experienced the Waikiki area, and we are very interested in Ko Olina as a destination.

I wonder if they will sell some Mickey Mouse Hawaiian outfits for the family?  Our kids and grandkids love to dress alike when they go to Disneyworld.


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## vacationhopeful (Jul 11, 2011)

bnoble said:


> ...  I suspect the eventual disposition of the National Harbor/Maryland property is going to hinge on how well this goes.  Should be interesting, either way.



The Wyndham National Harbor resort has been booking much better lately. I have to say, that the Gaylord Conference Center and the surrounding pre-planned environment is a tourist's dream. New, clean, easy to get around, variety of dining in both price and taste, a pretty site lines as the hill descend into the harbor, etc. 

If Disney builds there, the desire of families to visit the US Capital city would have to be higher than HHI and Vero Beach - leaps and bounds higher. And it is a 8 hour drive to location for a very large segment of the US population.


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## littlestar (Jul 11, 2011)

I've read through the years in various DVC newsletters to the membership that the number one trade request for members was Hawaii, so I figure that had something to do with DVC building on Oahu. I'm sure Disney did their homework.  But, they probably certainly did not know our economy would stay this rotten or imagine the world disasters of the magnitude we've seen lately.


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## SuzanneSLO (Jul 12, 2011)

We received a flyer as Disneyland AP holders in the mail yesterday telling us that we were eligible for discounts on hotel stays at Aulani.  No other details were given unless you called.  It looks like in the short term, they are needing to fill hotel room vacancies at the resort. -- Suzanne


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## jsfletch (Jul 12, 2011)

FWIW: There is plenty of land adjacent to KoOlina that could be developed into a theme park (probably won't happen in my lifetime).
KoOlina has a harbor used for tankers, small boat harbor, etc. but might be developed to handle a Disney Cruise ship.(Again probably not in my lifetime).
Visualize a monorail from the Aulani to the harbor and on to the theme park.
Other countries (China, Aus, etc.) are picking up the Japanese slack.

http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/....html?ed=2011-07-12&s=article_du&ana=e_du_pub


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## tomandrobin (Jul 12, 2011)

The DVC units and the resort is projecting around 40-50% of the resort to the Japanese market. The earthquake and tsunami have tempered those expectations, for now. 

Overall, the resort will do well. Disney has put a alot of thought into the resort. It offers everything a vacationer could want. Hopefully, airfare won't kill off the resort or Disney doesn 't price itself out of the market.


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## ocdb8r (Jul 13, 2011)

tomandrobin said:


> The DVC units and the resort is projecting around 40-50% of the resort to the Japanese market. The earthquake and tsunami have tempered those expectations, for now.



Wow, that's a pretty high target.  Where did that come from?  Hopefully the effects of the tsumami will only be short-term, but that's a pretty aggressive long-term goal for such a large resort.



tomandrobin said:


> Overall, the resort will do well. Disney has put a alot of thought into the resort. It offers everything a vacationer could want. Hopefully, airfare won't kill off the resort or Disney doesn 't price itself out of the market.



I agree.  They seemed to have planned quite extensively and provided much more than the other two "beyond the berm" resorts.  I just wonder if it will be enough.  More specifically, I wonder if it will be enough to keep more of the sort of captive audience they are used to.  I just read Werner's review of the dining options and while they sound great, it sounds like they will be looking to command a typical Disney premium.  

I do hope the resort is successful.  I grew up with Disneyland down the street and have been a fan of the service and products provided for many years.


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## tomandrobin (Jul 13, 2011)

ocdb8r said:


> Wow, that's a pretty high target.  Where did that come from?  Hopefully the effects of the tsumami will only be short-term, but that's a pretty aggressive long-term goal for such a large resort.
> 
> 
> I agree.  They seemed to have planned quite extensively and provided much more than the other two "beyond the berm" resorts.  I just wonder if it will be enough.  More specifically, I wonder if it will be enough to keep more of the sort of captive audience they are used to.  I just read Werner's review of the dining options and while they sound great, it sounds like they will be looking to command a typical Disney premium.




Those numbers are inside sales projections (guess work). I am talking more of the DVC side, then Hotel side. But overall, Disney does expect a big Japanese presence at the resort. 

When you compare the resort to other Oahu resorts, it stacks up extremely well. Disney knew going into that location, they had to be better then both of the Marriott resorts....on their left and right.


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## DebBrown (Jul 13, 2011)

I can't speak to Disney's marketing plans but what I see is a HUGE resort in a manmade luxury area.  Ko'Olina is not a part of Hawaii that I'd choose to experience again.  Their salesmen are going to be busy for many years to come.

Deb


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## glypnirsgirl (Jul 13, 2011)

I am concerned about the location. It seems far out to me. Likely to appeal only to the Disney-philes and those people that enjoy artificial environments. It does not matter how well done in terms of being "Hawaiified" it still seems artificial to me. As a result, it lacks any kind of appeal to me.

However, my husband, the man that loves "authentic" travel adventures, is really looking forward to staying there.  Really quite shocking to me!

I think that part of the reason that it doesn't appeal to me is because of the pop-up ad that I get everytime I go to the DVC website. It has gone beyond annoying.

elaine


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## heathpack (Jul 13, 2011)

Hmm, we are headed to Aulani for a few days in Jan.  For us the appeal is that this will be a very nicely pulled-together resort, nicely decorated, with a fabulous pool/lazy river in a quiet locale.

Oahu is the cheapest/easiest Hawaiian island to get to.  If you're not wild about Waikiki and you want a modern resort, something in KoOlina is really your best option.

I am completely sure I will come back wanting 75 Aulani points, we really like Disney but are not maniacs.  I think Aulani will do well but only if Disney successfully markets to West Coasters.  It's just too far to be practical for Easterners.  Between Japan & US West coast market, I think this could be a real winner, plus provide proof-of-concept in DVC expanding beyond their own theme parks.  Personally, I think they should offer some sort of Western US special- an extra 2 or 3 dollars/point off.

We'll all see how it turns out in a few years.

H


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## ocdb8r (Jul 13, 2011)

heathpack said:


> I am completely sure I will come back wanting 75 Aulani points, we really like Disney but are not maniacs.



This is another interesting thing to me.  Unlike many of the other DVC resorts, does Aulani really lend itself to these small add-on contract sizes?  With a plethora of DVC resorts in close proximity in FL, it's easy to have a bunch of small contracts to make one longer stay.  Both CA and FL also lend themselves to short stays.  However, HI doesn't really lend itself to either of these.  

I'm curious what you'll do with only 75 points?


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## heathpack (Jul 13, 2011)

ocdb8r said:


> This is another interesting thing to me.  Unlike many of the other DVC resorts, does Aulani really lend itself to these small add-on contract sizes?  With a plethora of DVC resorts in close proximity in FL, it's easy to have a bunch of small contracts to make one longer stay.  Both CA and FL also lend themselves to short stays.  However, HI doesn't really lend itself to either of these.
> 
> I'm curious what you'll do with only 75 points?



6 nights studio ocean view every other year, as an add-on to a trip to Maui, Kauai or the Big Island.

The nice thing about Disney is you can buy these tiny slices of TS and just pay MF on your tiny slice.

H


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## Jay MA (Jul 15, 2011)

"It's interesting to see DVC once again venturing into the non-park timeshare waters given the limited success (some might say failure) of the HHI and Vero Beach resorts. "

Vero Beach is not a success- that place is always full!


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## bnoble (Jul 15, 2011)

> Vero Beach is not a success- that place is always full!



Vero was *significantly* cut back from its planned size during its development---after interests had been sold based on the original representations.  As a result, contracts purchased before the plans were scaled back pay a subsidized (lower) dues figure, to account for this.  No one will tell you the official reason why, but it's not hard to figure out.  It wasn't selling well.

Remember, occupancy is not the measure of success of a timeshare development.   Success is measured by the pace and price of sales.

In light of that, I think one can safely say that Vero was not a success.


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## MichaelColey (Jul 16, 2011)

I think it'll be a tremendous success, in far more ways than just direct sales and rentals.


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## sfwilshire (Jul 16, 2011)

bnoble said:


> Vero was *significantly* cut back from its planned size during its development---after interests had been sold based on the original representations.  As a result, contracts purchased before the plans were scaled back pay a subsidized (lower) dues figure, to account for this.  No one will tell you the official reason why, but it's not hard to figure out.  It wasn't selling well.
> 
> Remember, occupancy is not the measure of success of a timeshare development.   Success is measured by the pace and price of sales.
> 
> In light of that, I think one can safely say that Vero was not a success.



We enjoyed our two visits to Vero Beach and one to HHI, but in comparing them, I would say that HHI is in a much more popular spot. 

Vero Beach isn't close to much of anything. Even lunch out was a bit of a haul. We enjoyed the Disney activities and a relaxing week, but nobody seems too interested in going back.

HHI DVC is close to many of the island amenities. Other than not being on the beach, it is a good resort. We're not big Hilton Head fans, but if we wanted to go back, DVC would be on the list of resorts we wouldn't mind staying at.

Sheila


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