# Tropical Storm/Hurricane Ana



## daventrina (Oct 13, 2014)

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=TWO-C
ROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 AM HST MON OCT 13 2014

PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL 
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAVE BECOME 
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO DEEM THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 1537Z 
SSM/S AND 1359Z TRMM OVERPASSES DETECTED CURVED BANDS THAT SUPPORT 
INITIATING ADVISORIES...AS DO DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 
2.0/30 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB. THUS THE SECOND CYCLONE OF THE 2014 
SEASON HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
TWO-C. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE NAMED 
ANA.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/09 KT...WITH THE CYCLONE BEING STEERED BY A 
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A WESTWARD-MOVING CLOSED LOW ALOFT 
NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY WEST THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM 
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3 WHILE ALSO RESULTING 
IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH ALOFT PASSES BY 
TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE 
OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH DAY 3. GUIDANCE 
SPREAD INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO 
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON 
THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN CONSENSUS 
AT THAT TIME. 

INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE CAN 
BE EXPECTED...WITH SHEAR LIGHT AND WATER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY 
WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT... 
AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...MAKING THE SYSTEM A 
HURRICANE BY DAY 2...AND MAINTAINING IT AS A HURRICANE THROUGH DAY 
5. 

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS 
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 12.8N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 13.2N 143.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 13.7N 144.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 14.0N 145.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 14.1N 146.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 14.6N 149.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 16.5N 152.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 18.5N 154.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD


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## daventrina (Oct 13, 2014)

She's now Tropical Storm Ana :annoyed:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=ANA

This could make for an interesting start for our trip....

So we call Hawaiian and they want $1000 to change our flight to before the storm hits

And I'm like ... you want me to give you $1000 to save you money?

And they didn't have an answer as to how they planned to get three days of passengers on one day of airplanes


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## slip (Oct 13, 2014)

We're on Kauai now and will be watching this. We're here until 10-25-14.


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## daventrina (Oct 13, 2014)

Just upgraded to a tropical storm a bit ago...

Thunderstorm tops at 54,000 feet  not going over that...

WCPA04 PHFO 140315
WSTPAQ

KZAK SIGMET QUEBEC 1 VALID 140315/140915 PHFO-
OAKLAND OCEANIC FIR TC ANA OBS AT 0300Z N1254 W14230. CB TOP FL540 WI
100NM OF CENTER. MOV NW 06KT. INTSF. FCST 0900Z TC CENTER N1310
W14258.






TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST MON OCT 13 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER /LLCC/ OF THE CYCLONE IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAD BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED... 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER IT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF 
HOURS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS 10 TO 15 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR 
OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH HELPED WITH THE DETERMINATION THAT THE 
POSITION ESTIMATE USED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS TOO FAR TO THE 
WEST...PROMPTING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE 
RECENT IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND PHFO...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO 
A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IS GIVEN THE HAWAIIAN NAME 
ANA. 

WITH THE REPOSITIONING...INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
315/06 KT...WITH THE STORM BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND 
NORTHEAST. A WESTWARD-MOVING CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS WILL MOVE STEADILY WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS 
WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE 
SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3...WITH A 
RELATIVELY SLOW FORWARD MOTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH ALOFT PASSES BY 
TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE UPDATED 
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS THROUGH DAY 3...AND LIES 
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ALTHOUGH 
IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT BASED ON TODAY/S DEVELOPMENTS. ON 
DAYS 4 AND 5 THE GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE 
STRENGTH OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE RIDGE. THE 
UPDATED FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 
PREVIOUS...AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 
TVCN CONSENSUS. 

INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION CAN BE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR 
CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THEN REMAIN 
LIGHT. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST 
TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM 
GUIDANCE...WITH ANA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. 

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS 
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 12.9N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 13.3N 143.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 13.9N 144.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 14.2N 145.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 14.5N 146.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 15.2N 148.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 18.0N 152.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD



She's on Facebook here:
https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Honolulu.gov


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## Ann in CA (Oct 14, 2014)

We're on Maui now, and have reservations on Hawaiian for a noon flight to Kauai on Sunday the 19th. On the news tonight, they only talked about the effect it would have on the Big Island, but it would seem it could be a problem for Maui that weekend as well. 

I realize we'll have to wait to see exactly what develops, but should I be getting a back up hotel reservation on Maui for Sunday night in case we can't get out?


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## daventrina (Oct 14, 2014)

Ann in CA said:


> I realize we'll have to wait to see exactly what develops, but should I be getting a back up hotel reservation on Maui for Sunday night in case we can't get out?


We were wondering the same think in case we make the Oakland flight but not the Kona flight.
As of 11PM HST, CPHC says she isn't expected to make landfall on BI till Sunday PM

The projection from the weather underground is better than that:






The results of their model don't look as encouraging for a miss as they did last night though


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## PearlCity (Oct 15, 2014)

Latest...


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## PearlCity (Oct 15, 2014)

daventrina said:


> She's now Tropical Storm Ana :annoyed:
> 
> http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=ANA
> 
> ...


Hawaiian usually  starts to waive change fees when hurricane watches are in effect.. I haven't  heard of them waiving them for tropical storms.  wait another day or so then call back


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## daventrina (Oct 15, 2014)

Ann in CA said:


> We're on Maui now, and have reservations on Hawaiian for a noon flight to Kauai on Sunday the 19th.


Current perdiction is for a direct hit on Kauai on Sunday 

http://www.kitv.com/weather/hurricanes/tropical-storm-ana/27838608?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=kitv

The weatherunderground perdiction is not till Monday right now...
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/central-pacific/2014/Tropical-Storm-Ana?map=5day



PearlCity said:


> Hawaiian usually  starts to waive change fees when hurricane watches are in effect.. I haven't  heard of them waiving them for tropical storms.  wait another day or so then call back


Once you get to the day before ... it get difficult to exercise what few options would be left by then  and those that could have used empty seats on earlier are all now trying to squeze into what few seats there are with the other two or three days of passangers....

Here's their answer...
 Response Via Email (Reservations Supervisor)
Aloha David,

We are understand your concern.

However, we do not have any updates yet regarding change fee waivers due to Tropical Storm Anna. Kindly check our web site for any updates regarding the storm.

Please do not hesitate to contact us again.

Mahalo,
Stephanie/GLF
Hawaiian Airlines
​


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## PearlCity (Oct 15, 2014)

daventrina said:


> Current perdiction is for a direct hit on Kauai on Sunday
> 
> http://www.kitv.com/weather/hurrica...otsuite&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=kitv
> 
> ...


I know. But because  it's not a hurricane  yet they aren't  going to do anything. I don't  think any of the airlines waive change fees for a tropical storm.  Tropical storms are dime a dozen  here. The islands can recover in a couple days from those. It's the hurricanes  that wreak things.


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## daventrina (Oct 15, 2014)

PearlCity said:


> Tropical storms are dime a dozen  here. The islands can recover in a couple days from those. It's the hurricanes  that wreak things.


This is true, but is is still likely that at TS would cause flight cancellations.... The point is that those empty seats that they could have used are gone.

Seems we may get some additional data soon...
Maybe we'll get an additional 50-100 nm push west...

WTPA45 PHFO 152055
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 AM HST WED OCT 15 2014

...THE CURRENT TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR A VERY SMALL INCREASE IN SPEED. THE TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ANA JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THEN NORTHWEST NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU. THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 

_THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND ANA LATER TODAY. THE DATA FROM THESE FLIGHTS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE._
​


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## krj9999 (Oct 15, 2014)

Models are all over the place.

FYI, Hawaiian has waiver policy up now.
http://www.hawaiianairlines.com/notification/pages/detail.aspx?nid=8


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## BJRSanDiego (Oct 16, 2014)

A friend of mine is on Maui and is/was scheduled to fly over to the Big Island on Saturday.  He has been advised that the airports will be closed while the tropical storm hits (makes sense).  He is planning on staying on Maui for an extra day or two or....


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## daventrina (Oct 16, 2014)

krj9999 said:


> Models are all over the place.
> 
> FYI, Hawaiian has waiver policy up now.
> http://www.hawaiianairlines.com/notification/pages/detail.aspx?nid=8


A little late now... really can't leave in 6 hours


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## Blues (Oct 16, 2014)

PearlCity said:


> I know. But because  it's not a hurricane  yet they aren't  going to do anything. I don't  think any of the airlines waive change fees for a tropical storm.  Tropical storms are dime a dozen  here. The islands can recover in a couple days from those. It's the hurricanes  that wreak things.



Alaska has waived the fees.  We're on Maui now, and were scheduled on Alaska for OGG->OAK for Saturday, in the middle of the storm.  Today, I changed to the Thursday flight (tried for Fri, but they were booked).  Alaska was waiving change fees due to Ana. 

Bonus - I scored an upgrade to First for $100/person.  

-Bob


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## SeattleKnitChick (Oct 16, 2014)

Ugh. We're scheduled to fly from Seattle to Oahu on Saturday morning. Can't leave earlier because hubby has to work Friday. I'm really hoping this keeps slowing down and that we get to have our vacation!


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## krj9999 (Oct 16, 2014)

We're scheduled to fly into HNL Sat. afternoon.  Hoping our flight won't be affected.



SeattleKnitChick said:


> Ugh. We're scheduled to fly from Seattle to Oahu on Saturday morning. Can't leave earlier because hubby has to work Friday. I'm really hoping this keeps slowing down and that we get to have our vacation!


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## buzglyd (Oct 16, 2014)

I can top that!

I'm supposed to fly LAX to Kona tomorrow and get MARRIED on Tuesday on the Big Island.

We might have to delay for a few days.


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## taffy19 (Oct 16, 2014)

buzglyd said:


> I can top that!
> 
> I'm supposed to fly LAX to Kona tomorrow and get MARRIED on Tuesday on the Big Island.
> 
> We might have to delay for a few days.


How exciting to get married on the Big Island so hope that it all will work out for you and the weather will be back to normal for the most stunning wedding pictures on the beach.


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## daventrina (Oct 16, 2014)

buzglyd said:


> I can top that!
> I'm supposed to fly LAX to Kona tomorrow and get MARRIED on Tuesday on the Big Island.
> We might have to delay for a few days.



Based on the current weather and perdictions you should be OK with out delays.
The storm should be out of the way till Saturday (when we are supposed to arrive).

If yuo trust the WeaterhUnderground forcast, she isn't even supposed to be a hurricate till Friday evening. Some models perdict a more westerly track no change from a tropical storm.


TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST THU OCT 16 2014
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND AN EXPECTED SHORT TERM DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HWRF GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SHIPS AND LGEM DO NOT ANTICIPATE HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT AND DEPICT ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING WIND SHEAR LEADS TO WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 DESPITE INCREASINGLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES. THE RECENT OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...DELAYING HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT 
UNTIL FRIDAY. 

Storm Track Statistics
Date	Time	Lat	Lon	Wind (mph)	Pressure	Storm Type
Oct 13	2100 GMT	12.8	-143.2	35	1007	Tropical Depression
Oct 14	0300 GMT	12.9	-142.5	40	1005	Tropical Storm
Oct 14	0900 GMT	13.2	-142.9	45	1003	Tropical Storm
Oct 14	1500 GMT	13.4	-143.3	50	1000	Tropical Storm
Oct 14	2100 GMT	14.0	-144.2	65	997	Tropical Storm
Oct 15	0300 GMT	13.9	-145.2	65	996	Tropical Storm
Oct 15	0900 GMT	14.1	-146.1	70	994	Tropical Storm
Oct 15	1500 GMT	14.3	-146.5	70	994	Tropical Storm
Oct 15	2100 GMT	14.3	-147.4	70	994	Tropical Storm
Oct 16	0300 GMT	14.1	-148.4	65	998	Tropical Storm
Oct 16	0900 GMT	14.1	-149.3	60	1000	Tropical Storm
Oct 16	1500 GMT	14.1	-150.3	60	1000	Tropical Storm
​


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## SueDonJ (Oct 16, 2014)

FYI, statement on Marriott Vacation Club's Facebook page:


> We are currently monitoring Tropical Storm Ana. Our Hawaiian sites that may be affected by the storms have begun taking the appropriate precautions. As always, the safety and security of our Owners, guests and associates is a top priority. For information regarding reservations, Owners should call Owner Services at 1-800-845-4226, and all other guests should call Customer Care at 1-800-860-9384.


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## buzglyd (Oct 16, 2014)

It's supposed to make landfall Friday evening.

I would land Friday morning. 

I don't feel like sitting through two or three days of intense storms. It's nice and sunny at home. 

We are going to fly out Sunday now.

HGVC was great. They cancelled my Friday and Saturday night Open Season reservation and refunded my money.

United switched my plane tickets without a hitch.

Wedding is Tuesday so we are still on schedule minus a fishing and snorkeling trip.


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## daventrina (Oct 17, 2014)

*Not bad today...*

Kahului HI [PHOG] terminal forecast
issued on the 17th at 4:21am PDT (1121Z), valid from the 17th at 5am PDT (12Z) through the 18th at 5am PDT (12Z)
5am PDT (12Z)	wind 050° at 10 knots, visibility greater than 6 miles, 3,000 feet few, 5,000 feet broken
12:00 noon PDT (1900Z)	wind 060° at 15 knots gusting to 25 knots, visibility greater than 6 miles, 3,000 feet scattered, 5,000 feet overcast
12:00 midnight PDT (0700Z)	wind 070° at 10 knots, visibility greater than 6 miles, 3,000 feet few, 5,000 feet broken AMD LTD TO WX VIS AND WIND TIL 171600.

Winds aloft forecast based on observations taken on the 17th at 5:00am PDT
  (1200Z).  Forecast valid on the 18th at 5:00am PDT (1200Z), for use from
  11:00pm PDT (0600Z) to 11:00am PDT (1800Z).  Temperatures are negative
  above 24,000 feet.
FT  1000 1500 2000 3000    6000    9000   12000   15000   18000   24000
OGG 1015 1118 1120 1124 1225+15 1319+10 1516+06 1719+01 1720-05 1726-15
          Kahului HI [OGG]
KOA 9900 0105 9900 9900 1509+15 1520+11 1627+06 1530+00 1533-05 1731-15
          Kailua/Kona HI [KOA]
LNY           1123 1226 1319+15 1514+10 1617+06 1620+01 1312-05 1623-15
          Lanai City HI [LNY]
HNL 0919 0921 0923 1124 1219+15 1115+11 1014+06 0912+01 0910-05 0705-16
          Honolulu HI [HNL]


Winds aloft forecast based on observations taken on the 17th at 5:00am PDT
  (1200Z).  Forecast valid on the 18th at 5:00am PDT (1200Z), for use from
  11:00pm PDT (0600Z) to 11:00am PDT (1800Z).  Temperatures are negative
  above 24,000 feet.
FT  1000 1500 2000 3000    6000    9000   12000   15000   18000   24000
OGG 1015 1118 1120 1124 1225+15 1319+10 1516+06 1719+01 1720-05 1726-15
          Kahului HI [OGG]
KOA 9900 0105 9900 9900 1509+15 1520+11 1627+06 1530+00 1533-05 1731-15
          Kailua/Kona HI [KOA]
LNY           1123 1226 1319+15 1514+10 1617+06 1620+01 1312-05 1623-15
          Lanai City HI [LNY]
HNL 0919 0921 0923 1124 1219+15 1115+11 1014+06 0912+01 0910-05 0705-16
          Honolulu HI [HNL]


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## daventrina (Oct 17, 2014)

*Tropical storm ana discussion number  16*

So far ... Hawaiian is expecting to launch tomorrow morning 
...
Modest intensification is expected through tonight...with light
to moderate westerly shear preventing significant strengthening
despite water temperatures increasing along the forecast track. 
The forecast calls for ana to strengthen to a hurricane in the short
term...but the window for strengthening is still expected to close
on saturday...at least temporarily. This is due to the passing
mid-latitude trough imparting increased vertical wind shear. The
official forecast lies between the ships and lgem guidance...but is 
weaker than the icon consensus. The consensus forecast is deemed to 
be too high...as the hwf and gfdi make ana a 100 kt hurricane by day 
4...despite increasing shear. This strengthening trend occurs as ana
reaches the anomalously warm waters northwest of the main hawaiian
islands...with the variance in forecast models due to the differing
forecast shear profiles in the longer ranges.


Forecast positions and max winds

init  17/1500z 15.7n 154.2w   60 kt  70 mph
 12h  18/0000z 16.6n 155.9w   65 kt  75 mph
 24h  18/1200z 18.0n 157.5w   65 kt  75 mph
 36h  19/0000z 19.2n 158.8w   60 kt  70 mph
 48h  19/1200z 20.0n 159.7w   60 kt  70 mph
 72h  20/1200z 21.0n 162.0w   55 kt  65 mph
 96h  21/1200z 22.0n 165.0w   50 kt  60 mph
120h  22/1200z 23.5n 167.0w   50 kt  60 mph

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2pm Fri 2am Sat 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HILO           34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SOUTH POINT    34  2  13(15)   3(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)

KAILUA-KONA    34  1   7( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)

KAHULUI        34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)

HONOLULU       34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   9(21)   4(25)   1(26)   X(26)
HONOLULU       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LIHUE          34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   9(31)   1(32)   X(32)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
LIHUE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


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## Kauai Kid (Oct 17, 2014)

*Hurricane and Weather URL's*

Hurricanes:  www.nhc.noaa.gov

Weather:  www.weather.gov

Sterling


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## dioxide45 (Oct 17, 2014)

I have a question, perhaps I missed it in this thread but I coudln't find it in a quick Google search either. Why is it named "Ana"? That name does not even exist on the 2014 Pacific storm names list. You can see that list here.

At this link, Ana is the first name for 2015 in the Atlantic. Did Ana form in the Central North Pacific which Ana is on List 4?


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## daventrina (Oct 18, 2014)

dioxide45 said:


> Did Ana form in the Central North Pacific which Ana is on List 4?


Thing that is where it came from as it formed in the central region

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE PERIODICALLY OBSERVED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALL THREE FIX AGENCIES AGAIN CAME IN AT 4.0/65 KT. 
U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT TO BE 70 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 310/11 KT AS THE EXPECTED TURN TO
NORTHWEST IS UNDERWAY...THOUGH AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FOUND THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPECTED LOCATION. THE TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE STEERING
THE SYSTEM IS NUDGED EASTWARD AND WEAKENED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH. THE PRIOR DELAY IN THE TURN...PRESUMABLY
DUE TO THE LINGERING STRENGTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE...HAS LED TO A
PRONOUNCED SHIFT OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT. THE
FORECAST WAS NUDGED TO THE LEFT BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE RIGHT EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A NEW DEEP
LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF ANA AND SHOULD PUSH
THE SYSTEM BACK ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THE TURN CONTINUES TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY
DAYS 4 AND 5...ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LYING OVER AND WEST OF ANA IS MAINTAINING A WELL DEFINED
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS...BUT AS ANA
MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AXIS...IT IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS RESTRICTING OUTFLOW IN
THE WESTERN QUADRANT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL SATURDAY...AND WITH OCEAN TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WARM...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.
SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ANA
WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS TROPICAL STORM. ON DAY 5...REINTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD RELAX. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 16.9N 156.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 17.8N 157.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 18.9N 159.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 19.6N 160.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 20.1N 161.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 21.0N 164.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 22.6N 166.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 24.2N 168.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE​


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## PearlCity (Oct 18, 2014)

dioxide45 said:


> I have a question, perhaps I missed it in this thread but I coudln't find it in a quick Google search either. Why is it named "Ana"? That name does not even exist on the 2014 Pacific storm names list. You can see that list here.
> 
> At this link, Ana is the first name for 2015 in the Atlantic. Did Ana form in the Central North Pacific which Ana is on List 4?


Yes it formed in the central pacific, as such the names are Hawaiian


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## daventrina (Oct 18, 2014)

Kahului HI [PHOG]*amended*terminal forecast
issued on the 17th at*8:01pm*PDT (0301Z), valid from the 17th at*8pm*PDT (03Z) through the 18th at*5pm*PDT (24Z)

8pm*PDT (03Z)wind 060° at 15 knots gusting to 25 knots, visibility greater than 6 miles, showers in the vicinity, 1,500 feet scattered, 5,000 feet broken

10:00pm*PDT (0500Z)wind 100° at 15 knots, visibility greater than 6 miles, 3,000 feet few, 5,000 feet scattered, 10,000 feet broken

1:00pm*PDT (2000Z)wind 190° at 20 knots gusting to 30 knots, visibility greater than 6 miles, light rain showers, 2,000 feet few, 3,500 feet broken, 6,000 feet overcast

1pm*(20Z)-5pm PDT (24Z)temporarily visibility 3 miles, light rain showers, 2,500 feet broken*AMD*LTD*TO*WX*AND*WIND*1809/1816.


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## daventrina (Oct 19, 2014)

Kahululi at 11AM this am. Not too bad of a ride light rain ... and a few bumps.






Kona Reef... via DRI


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## slip (Oct 19, 2014)

Last night was pretty  windy in Kapaa. Rain wasn't too bad. Still windy this 
Morning but a little lighter and rain is sporatic. Picture is the view from our bedroom at the Pono Kai.


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## Kauai Kid (Oct 19, 2014)

Not bad.  I think the media makes it sound like the end of time so that more people will tune in.

Still beats -30F and five foot snowdrifts in Wisconsin by a long shot.

Sterling


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## slip (Oct 19, 2014)

You got that right. One thing is the unpredictability of the whole thing. That's 
Why it's best not to be traveling around and getting caught in something.


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