# Florida in January--Fifth Generation Thread



## JLB

The following is the fifth generation of my Florida in January thread.  The 4th one just seems to have disappeared.

The next post will be the post that started the 4th generation thread.  After that I will add some intervening posts to bring it up to date.


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## JLB

From here:

http://www.timeshareforums.com/showthread.php?t=62&page=1
- - - - - -
http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=137


I am starting it again, courtesy of www.tstips.com.


02-18-2005, 07:39 AM 
JLB 
Senior Member Join Date: Sep 07 2004
Posts: 324 

Daily Florida RCI Search 
Many of you know that I search RCI for Florida the next two Januarys every day I'm home. I have since RCI.com began, and I have recorded the results of the searches for SW FL for January since March 27, 2002.

Today the Florida subareas changed (from what was there yesterday), including two Ft. Myers/Sanibel/Captiva. The subareas changed two weekends ago, during the weekly Saturday night maintenace, and several were added at that time. Since yesterday the subareas have changed again.

You would have to be pretty knowledgable about Florida geography, or have a map at your side, to be able to keep up with them.

Generally speaking, the drastic reduction in availability of SW Florida resorts for January, something that occurred a couple years ago (I can document the exact time if you like) has not improved. With a top trader I am only seeing 2 for next January and 3 for January, 2007. All are lesser resorts.

To compensate, I am now searching "Resorts on the Beach" for each January, and once or twice a week "Florida", so that I can keep track of more than just SW.

Logic tells me other areas will begin to suffer shortages sooner or later.


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## JLB

http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=137


Here's the original OP for the fourth generation of this thread:

posted 05-14-2005 06:29 

Time for pruning.

Time to bring the meaningful posts over to a new thread. This is necessary because as threads get too long, the forum does not handle them well. Eventually they will be lost.

I will be pulling old stuff over, and you can, too, but here is where we started on the third generation, July 25, 2004:


Officially for RCI, SW Florida is a Subarea that begins at Englewood/Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda and goes south to Marco Island.
I have been familiar with, interested in, in love with SW Florida since going there during my previous incarnation in the 1970's. Initially my interest was in Ft. Myers Beach, but eventually branched out to include Sanibel/Captiva, Bonita Beach, Vanderbilt Beach, Naples, Marco Island, and, yes, Lehigh Acres.

In my new incarnation, we began timesharing in SW Florida, Weeks 1 and 2 each year, in the early 90's. In those days, with no RCI.com, the method of searching involved ongoing searches and relying on the word of a VC. We typically wound up with Lehigh Acres, and with one of the crappy units across the road at Lahaina Inn one week in the early 90's.

With the advent of RCI.com, a better trading week, TUG, and a dose of reality leading to semi-enlightenment, about five years ago we discovered that there are many wonderful resorts in SW FL and they really are/were available.

With RCI.com I began searching SW FL for each January I could, every day I was home. I began recording my searches on March 27, 2002, and have recorded every search since. No, I did not have a crystal ball to know that our best trading week would suddenly lose ALL trading power and I would need my documentation to present to RCI for a remedy. And I had no idea that two years later we would be concerned about prime weeks going directly to rentals.

I believe why I started recording my searches was because of TUG. There were several very nice, very informative members (most of whom seem to no longer be here) who gave advice on areas they were familiar with. As good as their advice was and as well-meaning as they appeared to be, what I found lacking was specifics, empirical data, so I adopted SW FL to study.

I sometimes say that if each of us would do this, for a Subarea we like, it would be a service to all of TUG.

So much for the idle chatter. For those of you who are viewing this for the first time, I just wanted you to be aware of the extent of time and study I have put into this. I have not yet found any simple explanations for the results.

Here's what I've seen:

January, 2004: Search began 3/27/02 with 10 resorts available. The peaks came in July and October, 2002, with 14 resorts. That would have been at 18 and 15 months out. At a year out (January, 2003) it was running 8 and 9 resorts. At six months out it was down to zero to 2.

January, 2005: Search began 3/19/03, with 11 resorts available. The peak came in June and August, 2003, and held through October, with 13 resorts. At 13 months out it was running 5-6, but at a year out it was zero to 3, and never recovered.

January, 2006: Search began 1/28/04, with 2 resorts. In 2/04, it was up to 6, but hasn't done much since. It has hit as high as 9, in June, at 19 months out, the timeframe when the previous searches began their peak. Now, in July, 2004, it has been running only 5-7 resorts.

General observations: First, there has never been any wild and radical fluctuation from one day to the next, as some might lead you to believe. It has seldom changed more than one resort in a day, often times with that one reappearing within the next two days. Several times it has gone many days, sometimes more than a month, with no change whatsoever.

Obviously, there has been a reduction in the number of resorts available. 

This was refelected in the 2005 search, when at a year out the typical surge from people Spacebanking in December and January, when fees are paid and trading power is being maximized, did not occur. It was more like what you should see at six months out, 0-3, and never rebounded.

January, 2006, is more obvious. The numbers have simply never been there.

As alarming, the resorts that are not appearing for 2006 are the better resorts. In previous years I saw an occasional Gold Crown, or RID, which I either took or referred to others. Some may remember when I posted Club Regency on Sightings, a Gold Crown I could not take because we already had another Gold Crown!!!! When we changed our plans, I did take it, since it lingered on RCI.com for quite awhile. Club Regency then appeared again and so did Charter Club of Marco and a couple on Sanibel.

But, nothing like that for 2005 or 2006.

So, there it is. The numbers are down. The quality is down. Even searching every day, starting two years out.

- - - - - -
Added 7/26: To give me and mine an alternative, and to share that with others, on March 10, 2004, I began the daily search of "Resorts on the Beach", mainly for January 2006, but also for 2005.

Amazingly, most other areas of Florida do not have the problem I see in SW FL. The Keys, of course, are tough, but I was able to snag a decent place there for Week 1, 2006, something we have always wanted to do,much likeI used to be able to do in SW.

I have seen as many as 55 choices for ROTB for 1/06 and almost as many for 1/05. Some really, really nice places.

Today there were 46 for 2006 and 43 for 2005 (Yes, even at this late date--five months out!).

Go figure!


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## JLB

07-14-2005
JLB  

Now, around 18 months out, has traditionally been a peak of availability.

Today Resorts on the Beach for January, 2007, is the highest it's been. At 56 resorts it is 10 higher than this date last month, and the highest yet. Compared with this date last year, that is actually up, from 50.

SW Florida for January, 2007, is at 7, and the highest it has been. At 18 months out in the past, on this day of the year, there have been:
2004-6
2003-12
2003-14

What is missing the last two years is the nicer resorts, which virtually never appear now. As you know I have been trying to ascertain where they have gone, and I have not.


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## JLB

08-17-2005 
JLB  

What's left in Resorts on the Beach for January, 2006, is located as follows:

Panhandle: 6~~~40% of the resorts
NE: 22~~~51% of the resorts
SE: 1~~~2% of the resorts


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## JLB

09-01-2005 
JLB  

Resorts on the Beach for January, '06, is still shrinking and for '07 still growing. For '07 there are some nice settlefors available.


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## JLB

10-02-2005  
JLB  

Resorts on the Beach for January, 2006, took a big hit this week. A little over 20% of what was there at the beginning on the week is now gone. Now it's down to 26 resorts. We're looking at three months out now.

It had been at basically the same level for several months, with just minor fluctuation.

For some reason, Resorts on the Beach for January, 2007, also took a pretty good hit the past week. It's down to 62, at 15 months out.


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## JLB

11-06-2005
JLB  


*One of My Occassional Summaries * 

All figures for SW Florida:

January, 2004--Peak availability was 14 resorts, at 18 and 16 months out. At a year out there were 7-10 available.

January, 2005--Peak was 12 resorts, at 21 months out, and 13 resorts, at 17 and 18 months out. At one year out there were only 1 or 2 available.

January, 2006--Peak was 9 resorts, at 21 months out. At a year out there were 2-5 available.

January, 2007--Peak was 9 resorts, at 21, 20 and 16 months out.

The lesser resorts, what I refer to as the normal suspects, are the ones that continue to be available. The better resorts, the GCs and RIDs are the ones that have disappeared. For January, 2004, there were GCs and RIDs on the beach available 9 times. For subsequent years just once of twice. For January, 2007, only two have been available.


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## JLB

11-30-2005  
JLB  

Here's a couple of conclusions that tend to go against the conventional wisdom.

First, there is a surge of deposits around 1-year out, to maximize trading power. I've never seen it. By one year out the availability is in a decline. The bulk of those who know they are going to deposit seem to do so at 15-20 months out.

Second, availability is highly volatile with a lot of day-to-day fluctuation. Searching early and daily, the opposite is the case. Some searches go for days, weeks, even months, with very little change.


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## JLB

12-01-2005 
JLB  

Now, a month before check-in, the less desireable areas~~~NE and Panhandle~~~are being taken.

12/8/05

Resorts on the Beach for January, 2006, was down to ten yesterday.  A week ago and for several months before that it was in the 20s and 30s.


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## JLB

Last year on 12/19/04 an amazing amount of availability suddenly appeared for the next two check-in dates, stuff that I had not seen in the previous 23 months of doing the same searches every day.  Madge said it came from a variety of sources.

on 12/16/04 I had seen only 8 resorts and on 12/19 there were 20-some.  Stuff would get taken during the day and then the next morning there was a whole lot more.  That went on until we left for our January Florida vacations.  it got as high as 50 resorts.

Im noticing that starting to happen again, nice stuff that should have been taken a long time ago, if it had appeared then, now appearing each day, for the next two check-in dates.

If you want to take a nice Florida vacation on short notice, start watching it.


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## JLB

I recently posted a summary here that I did not also post _over yonder_, so it is lost.

I had analyzed the number of Gold Crown Resorts on the Beach in SW Florida I saw early on in my study, for January, 2004, and compared it to 2005 and 2006.  It has been declining.

After the first year of searching for January, 2007, Gold Crowns in SW Florida I have only seen two, and they were taken the first day they appeared.


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## ttt

Jim-Shouldn't we expect a surge of January 2006 inventory as RCI makes available _unrentable deposits _ soon? Or has RCI done a better job this year of _marketing prime inventory_? I'm looking for a week 3 in Ft. Myers rather then use my confirmed week in Sarasota....let me know if you see anything good.


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## JLB

You're reading my mind.  (A short read)     I just came here to talk about this.

Just this week _over yonder_ we have been talking about this.  It appears that it _is_ happening again.  

http://www.timeshareforums.com/showthread.php?t=3300&page=1&pp=10

I talked about it in great detail last year between 12/19 and the day we left for Florida, coincidentally a 3-bedroom at OL for 1/1.

My mention of it here now does not do justice to the amazing amount of stuff that showed up in the 14-day window.  I was totally shocked and astounded.  In the lost thread I also had posted Madge's explanation and the explanation I got from Feedback.

Most of it was typical RCI-speak, but there was information important to owners.

First, ongoing searches end 14 days before the requested check-in date, unless the member specifically requests that it continue.  Most would not know to do that and most would give up if they don't have something two weeks before their check-in date.  Most would think that means there won't be anything. (keep in mind I am going from memory on what I was told a year ago).  

That means whatever goes into the Spacebank from whatever source will only be available to those who do a search, either on-line or through a Guide, in that 2-week period.

Secondly, Madge did mention a variety of sources like late deposits, cancellations, developer inventory, and rentals that did not get taken.  I had seen a big 14-day window for Hawaii before, because of a historically heavy last-minute cancellation rate, but not for Florida. 

In any event, stuff that I had been looking for daily for two years, and never saw, suddenly became available in the 14-day window.

The same stuff that was appearing for exchanges was also available through Extra Vacations, and that appears to be happening again also.

So, if anyone is looking for a last-minute Florida vacation, start looking.  Let's just call it the Christmas Clearance Sale.





			
				ttt said:
			
		

> Jim-Shouldn't we expect a surge of January 2006 inventory as RCI makes available _unrentable deposits _ soon? Or has RCI done a better job this year of _marketing prime inventory_? I'm looking for a week 3 in Ft. Myers rather then use my confirmed week in Sarasota....let me know if you see anything good.


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## ronandjoan

*This was a great synopsis*

Thanks Jim for this nice review - it helps us a lot


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## JLB

de nada

Anyone who needs specifics, or to be added to my daily searches of Florida, which I do for others also, let me know by email.

Together we have been able to find some very nice exchanges over the past few years.


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## JLB

JLB said:
			
		

> Let's just call it the Christmas Clearance Sale.



All of Florida for the next two weeks:

*64 Resorts have availability *


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## JLB

All of Florida for the next two weeks today:

*73 Resorts have availability *  

Some really nice stuff.


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## JLB

They're going:

*52 Resorts have availability*


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## JLB

Resorts on the Beach for January, 2006, two weeks from now, are going fast.  it is down to 9, all in the NE.

There does not appear to be a lot of extra inventory in the backroom to restock what is being taken for all of Florida for the next two weeks.

Late yesterday there were:

*48 Resorts have availability*

Since I can't look for this coming Friday any more, this morning I added another week.  Still, the total is not much higher:

*50 Resorts have availability, adding another week*

For the same period, the two Florida areas on Extra Vacations are:

*Extra Vacations:
29 Resorts have availability 
30 Resorts have availability*

Despite the fact that more resorts are not appearing, there are more desirable units within the resorts that are.


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## JLB

ROTB for 1/2006 is down to 4.

For 1/2007, a year from now, SW FL is 8 (all lesser resorts) and ROTB is 56.  ROTB peaked at 68 on 9/10/05, 16 months ahead.  That's about normal, 15-20 months.

I'm following the 14-day window for all of Florida for the rest of the year, to see what might happen.


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## JLB

*The 14-Day Window Kicks In*

I forecasted it and then gave up on it when it did not happen around the 18th or 19th.

But it kicked in today:

*Florida/Florida 12/30/05-1/16/06*
12/13/05:   24 Resorts have availability
12/14/05:   25 Resorts have availability
12/15/05:   21 Resorts have availability
12/16/05:   25 Resorts have availability
12/17/05:   27 Resorts have availability
12/18/05:   26 Resorts have availability
12/19/05:   24 Resorts have availability 
12/20/05:   17 Resorts have availability 
12/21/05:   20 Resorts have availability
12/22/05:   18 Resorts have availability
12/23/05:   16 Resorts have availability
12/24/05:   *37* Resorts have availability 

*Florida/Resorts on the Beach 12/30/05-1/16/06*
12/13/05:   9 Resorts have availability 
12/14/05:   8 Resorts have availability 
12/15/05:   4 Resorts have availability 
12/16/05:   6 Resorts have availability 
12/17/05:   4 Resorts have availability 
12/19/05:   9 Resorts have availability 
12/20/05:   8 Resorts have availability 
12/21/05:   8 Resorts have availability 
12/22/05:   8 Resorts have availability 
12/23/05:   8 Resorts have availability 
12/24/05:   *18* Resorts have availability


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## JLB

*F/F*
12/24/05:  Noon: 30 Resorts   6:00PM: 22 Resorts  
12/25/05:  8:00AM:  44 Resorts  Noon: 43  6:00PM: 35
12/26/05:  8:00AM:  26 Resorts  4:00PM:  12 Resorts

*F/ROTB*
12/24/05:   Noon:  13 Resorts   6:00 PM:  10 Resorts
12/25/05:   8:00AM:  22 Resorts  Noon:  20  6:00PM:  16
12/26/05:   8:00AM:  13 Resorts  4:00PM:  5 Resorts


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## JLB

The turn of the year has not produced any changes.  There is still a shortage of the better resorts for 2007, and now 2008.

I am engaged in a complex, lengthy and interesting discusssion with Inside Guy as to why the better resorts that I saw for 2004 and 2005 never showed up for 2006 and 2007.  I believe he said that those resorts never showed up for him in the first place, that they certainly always matched to ongoing searches.  There are many factors involved in the RCI system that only insiders are aware of.

Part of his position is that we are fortunate to be able to trade into the ones we do see, as they are very nice resorts, albeit not the upper crust, and ones that his family enjoys.  I do not disagree with that assessment as we enjoy some of the lesser SW Florida resorts also, and feel uncomfortable, not fully relaxed at some of the larger and pretentious resorts.  Conversely, our most vacationy, relaxing vacations have been st some lesser resorts.

But that does not help answer why some are no longer available.


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## JLB

I am not precluded that there is anything amiss with the reduced availabilty.

It could be something as simple as the HGVC owners wising up, realizing the least value for their January ownership would be to give it to RCI.  Take those 15 resorts out of the picture and SW Florida becomes pretty limited.

Or, it could be that RCI has improved their system, so that deposited weeks no longer escape ongoing searches, which might have been a possibility previously.

It could be that I am now seeing exactly what I should have been seeing then, or perhaps more than I have a right to be seeing ever, since no one else who has ever assisted me has ever seen more and most see much less.


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## JLB

Not much change--4 in SW for Jan. 2007 and 2 for Jan. 2008.

The failure of South Seas to reopen and it's pending sale could be a factor.  The nicer HGVC resorts could be going to folks who normally would be at South Seas.


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## JLB

*Noticeable Surge*

There was a noticeable surge this morning in availability for January, 2008, at 23 months out.  

Yesterday there were 3 for SW Florida, the most yet, and this morning there are 6.  Nothing special, still the Normal Suspects.

Yesterday there were 24 Resorts on the Beach, also the most yet, and today there are 36, a 50% overnight increase!  Some of the new ones are nicer resorts, not the normal, less-desireable stuff in the Panhandle and NE Florida.

Last night was weekly maintenance on RCI.com.


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## rapmarks

*South Seas on Captiva*

this resort is scheduled to reopen March 17.  Is anyone seeing availablility there?


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## IBCG

*"Crappy" Units at Lahaina*

  We have an ongoing RCI search for units to sleep 6 at Christmas 2006 in western Florida.  Right now we have one of the "crappy" units you refer to at the Lahaina.  Or we can take a nice unit but 2 hours further north at Siesta Key at the Calini. Since my teenager wants beach weather, am I better off with the Lahaina even though the unit is "crappy"?  How "crappy" is it?
Thanks very much,
IBCG


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## rapmarks

I don't think the weather will be a lot different, but not an expert.


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## Neesie

IBCG, are you referring to the Lahaina Resort in Ft. Myers Beach?  If so, even if it isn't rated Gold Crown or IHD my hubby and I thought it was a terrific resort with an excellent location on a beautiful beach.  

I am dying to read this thread since we vacation in Florida during January and have been for years.  But today my eyesight is limited, so I apologize if you explained the "Lahaina thing" earlier.    

JLB, I have quit depositing my January week with RCI.  My management company doesn't like me depositing more than 12 months in advance.  I have tried it a few times (after pre-paying what I estimated the AMF to be).  Obviously I was trying to get a good trade by banking early.  Now I either use it, or rent it out.  I have arranged for timeshare rentals through private owners and last minute bargain basement buys on Ebay.  I have lost faith in the "trading system" or scam.


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## IBCG

*Thanks very much for the input.*

I'm glad to hear that someone has good things to say about the Lahaina.  I was responding to a segment of this thread that referred to the "crappy" units across the street at the Lahaina, and I know ours is there.  
Thanks again,
IBCG


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## JLB

*Howdy New Folks*

and welcome to my tiny little piece of TUG.  I have been trying to keep my study of SW Florida alive here on the Florida Board for quite some time now.  This thread doesn't get a lot of comments but I can assure you that there is a sizable SW Florida contingent on TUG.

IBCG, I have already sent you my email. 

For others, we like Lahaina Inn also.  It is one of those older, smaller, cozier comfortable places that you just like to relax at, sorta like your favorite pair of shoes.  It's a great contrast to the Orlando mega-resorts, and very vacationy.

Everything on the beach side is on sand, including parking.  The unit we had in January had a most excellent sunset view.  Our first visit there was across the road.  Across the road has it's own pool and BBQ grill.

It is a sold-out resort with resales done right on site.  The welcome breakfast is served in the broker's building.

The beach is beautiful and goes forever.  It was great place to practice shots out of the sand trap and actually did improve that part of my game. The area had lots to do.

On the other hand, it's hard to beat the beach at Siesta Key.  Siesta Beach is rated #10 in the US by the Travel Channel and it is one of only two Florida beaches in the Top Ten in the entire US.  It is at or near the top in every beach rating there is.

Neesie:  Glad to have someone else who goes there in January every year.  I first went in the 70's, in my previous life, but Jenny and I have been going for two or three weeks since 1990.  This year we'll spend Christmas week with our extended family in a 3-bedroom at one of those Orlando mega resorts (along with a few thousand other tourists) and then the following week we can relax and unwind in two one bedroom units for us and friends at another of our favorite resorts along Estero/Hickory Blvd.


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## rapmarks

JLB, you are the perfect person to provide me some answers.  My duaghter decided to hopd her wedding down her, on the beach.  I am going to try to book some units to help out the housing situation.  We also have to find a place on the beach for the wedding.  I am thinking of setting the date for last half of April.  So could you give me some ideas about resorts that would be suitable, would be on the beach, and give me some idea when availability goes up. Easter is April 8 in 2007 and I was thinking some weekend after that would be appropriate.


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## JLB

Pat:

Wow!  Cool!

After mid-April and before the first of June would be the most pleasant weather-wise.  How about a sunset wedding?

But where to start?  What size party?  How many units?  Casual/beachy or upscale/glitzy?

You know some of the places I like.  They do rentals but they are not very big resorts.  Mother nature also has everything all topsy-turvy.

There's some really neat possibilities.  If you could swing it, everyone could stay at the Coconut Hyatt and the wedding party could take the motor launches across Estero Bay to the wedding, say at the beach club on Big Hickory Island.  or, what would be more appropriate than Lovers Key, maybe folks staying at Lovers Key Resort.  Then there's South Seas, Sanibel or Naples.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=beach+weddings+in+Southwest+Florida&btnG=Google+Search


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## rapmarks

Just in RCI, can't afford Hyatt and don't trade into it.  weak traders.  so tell me which resorts would be acceptable, on the beach, not on sanibel, don't want to drive an hour to get there, cross the bridge, pay tolls and parking, wait in traffic to get off island, etc.  the whole thing is Erin was promised money for the wedding with the caveat she gets to keep the "change", so she wants to spend less not more now.


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## JLB

No particular order or preference.  Lovers Key is not on a beach, but is so close to so much beach that I included it.  I did not include some that are on some undesirable beach.	


             Island Towers (#0173) RID
	4900 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931 USA 
	Phone: 239/463-5795 

	The Surf Club of Marco (#0344)  RID
	540 S. Collier Blvd. 
	Marco Island   FL   34145 USA 
	Phone: 239/642-5800 
www.hiltongrandvacations.com

	Lahaina Inn Resort (#0459)  RID
	5580 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931 USA 
	Phone: 239/463-4414 
www.lahainaresort.com

	Seawatch On-the-Beach Resort (#0601)  GC
	6550 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931  USA 
	Phone: 239/463-4469 
www.hiltongrandvacations.com

	Royal Beach Club (#0604)
	800 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931 USA 
	Phone: 239/463-9494 
www.royalbeachclub.com


	The Charter Club of Marco Beach (#0613)  GC
	700 S. Collier Blvd. 
	Marco Island   FL   34145 USA 
	Phone: 239/394-4192 
www.hiltongrandvacations.com

	Eagle's Nest Beach Resort (#0731)  GC
	410 S. Collier Blvd. 
	Marco Island   FL   34145 USA 
	Phone: 239/394-5167 
www.eaglesnestmarco.com

	Bel-Air Beach Club (#1153)  RID
	780 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931 USA 
	Phone: 239/463-7773 

 	Bonita Resort & Club (#1680) H
	26101 Hickory Blvd. 
	Bonita Beach   FL   34134 USA 
	Phone: 239/992-5198 
www.vriresorts.com

	Kahlua Beach Club (#1873)  RID
	4950 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931 USA 
	Phone: 239/463-5751 
www.kahluabeachclub.com

	Vanderbilt Beach & Harbour Club (#1882)  RID
	9301 Gulf Shore Drive 
	Naples   FL   34108 USA 
	Phone: 239/597-5098

	Gulf Pointe of Naples (#2009)  RID
	9439 Gulfshore Drive 
	Naples   FL   34108 USA 
	Phone: 239/591-3002 

	Club Regency of Marco Island (#2023)  GC
	500 S. Collier Blvd. 
	Marco Island   FL   34145 USA 
	Phone: 239/394-8197 
www.hiltongrandvacations.com

	Windward Passage Resort (#2644) H
	418 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931 USA 
	Phone: 239/463-1194 
www.vriresorts.com

	Estero Island Beach Club (#3033)  H
	1840 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931 USA 
	Phone: 239/463-6116 
www.ralresorts.com

	Beach Club I (#3275)  RID
	326 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931 USA 
	Phone: 239/463-2882 
www.vriresorts.com

	Lovers Key Beach Club & Resort (#5418)  
	8771 Estero Blvd. 
	Fort Myers Beach   FL   33931 USA 
	Phone: 239/765-1040 
www.loverskey.com


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## JLB

If you can't deposit with RCI more than 12 months ahead you might as well not.  RCI emphasizes early deposit and early exchanging, the resorts know that, and they should honor it.

The first resort with owned at let us deposit two years out, but billed every December, due Jan 1, regardless of when you deposit.  Where we own now makes you pay your fees in advance (two years), but as I have posted, they don't seem to have an accounting system that can keep track of that. (other than me of course)    



			
				Neesie said:
			
		

> JLB, I have quit depositing my January week with RCI.  My management company doesn't like me depositing more than 12 months in advance.  I have tried it a few times (after pre-paying what I estimated the AMF to be).  Obviously I was trying to get a good trade by banking early.


----------



## JLB

There are quite a few more resorts now for Jan, 2008, than there were this time last year for January, 2007.  Still, none of them are the better resorts.

If I can read my notes, all of last and this year I have only seen three Gold Crowns for Jan. 2006.

Many have told me to give up and use ongoing searches.  I have not heard from anyone who has gotten a Gold Crown on the Beach in SW Florida in January using ongoing searches either.  If there were ongoing searches, why did I see even the three I did?


----------



## JLB

Having searched SW Florida for January regularly for 9 years, I guess, almost daily for the last 6 year, and recording the results for the last 4 years, it has become very, very predictable.

Searching Resorts on the Beach for January daily for the last two years, it has become very predictable also.

Even this far out, for January, 2006, more than half (33 of 61) of the available Resorts on the Beach are in the NE or the Panhandle.  None are in the SW or the Keys.  What remains are in the SE, Tampa or Sarasota areas.

Looking at January, 2007, the NE and the Panhandle are only 15 of 48 available resorts, so the other areas are better represented further out, and get taken first.


----------



## JLB

A comment I haven't made for awhile, but that has always held true, is how little movement there is from day to day.  It is not the wildly fluctuating picture that some try to have you believe.

For my Resorts on the Beach, one now in the upper 50s and the other in the upper 40s, it seldoms fluctuates more than one resort a day.  In the last month the most either has fluctuated from one day to the next is four.

The picture I am seeing is one of very little activity, again relative to what some would have you believe.


----------



## JLB

Anyone who has read this or any of my previous threads on this topic knows that availability is not what it once was.

Here's another observation.

This week the day arrived when there is only one resort remaining for January, 2007.  That was on 3/28/06.

That made me wonder when that point arrived in previous years.

For January, 2004, which had considerable more and better resorts available throughout my search, starting 3/27/2002, the one resort left point arrived on 6/7/03.  For Jan/2005, 1/19/04 and for Jan/2006, 2/25/05.


----------



## JLB

Resort ID: 0459 LAHAINA INN RESORT 
1 4 / 4 Full 01/deleted/2007 Exchange 

A decent lesser resort. The best you can hope for any more for that timeframe.

Unit 37, ground floor, on the beach, in the building on the left in this picture (resort diagram at bottom of page):

http://www.lahainaresort.com/

PS: Some have encouraged me to use ongoing searches, including Inside Guy. I don't. If ongoing searches always match up to the decent resorts, so that those doing daily on-line searches never see stuff, why am I seeing this? Just this past week I have been told that this is a really, really tough search.

Duh!


----------



## Neesie

JLB - that's the unit I stayed in at Lahaina, except it was the upper floor.  I can't say enough nice things about it.  Or how about three more *Location, Location, Location!*


----------



## JLB

Not to be picky, but the orientation of those units, sorta facing at a SE angle, means that you cannot sit on your lanai and see the sunset.  Some of the units in that section are two bedroom, both upper and lower levels.  That would we nice.

In January we were in a ground-floor unit in the middle building and we could see the sunset just fine from our lanai.

There is a free-standing 2-bedroom unit on the beach, unit 25, that looks interesting.  I am checking them more now.


----------



## JLB

Monthly update.  

Nothing much has changed for '07.  Nothing really good has suddenly appeared.

I have been searching '08 for 3 1/2 months now.  SW FL has grown from 2 to 9, and based on past results, at 20 months out it is close to its peak.  Still no HGVCs on the beach; just the normal suspects.  I still have not booked '08.  I'm waiting for the right units to get deposited.

Resorts on the Beach has grown from 18 to 51.  There's been some nice stuff in the Sarasota/Siesta Key area.


----------



## JLB

*Wierd Stuff Today*

Wierd stuff happening today.   

First, there is a notice that RCI.com is unavailable because of maintenance, but it is available.

Resorts on the Beach searches are really strange.  For Jan, 2007, it has been running in the 50s and 60s.  Yesterday it was 57 and the day before it was 56.  It *never*, in all these years and hundreds of searches, has changed more than one or two a day.  Today it's 47!!!!  Down 10 from yesterday.   

Same for Resorts on the Beach for Jan, 2008.  It has been running upper 40s and 50s.  Yesterday it was 53.  Today it's 42.  Down 11!!!!!   

Anyone care to guess where all that stuff went overnight????


----------



## JLB

*Abracadabra*

What had disappeared yesterday, reappeared today. '07 was 58 resorts and '08 was 55.

I guess the only thing that can be said about it is that you can't trust the computers regardless of what search method you prefer.


----------



## JLB

Somewhere recently there was a discussion about my daily searching, asking how many resorts I/we need to see, etc. I did not think that since I keep lists for everything that I could explain what I mean by lesser and better resorts, what I have always seen and what I used to but no longer see, by just showing the lists.

So here they are.

What I see (The Normal Suspects), with the most likely in bold:

*Lehigh Resort Club
Charlotte Bay Resort & Club
Fishermen's Village Resort Club
Marco Resort & Club
Sea Oats Beach Club
Estero Island Beach Club
Bonita Resort & Club*Lahaina Inn
Royal Beach Club
Kahlua Beach Club
Marina Village at Snug Harbor
Sunrise Bay Resort and Club
Tropical Sands
Englewood Beach Club and Resort
Windward Passage Resort
White Sands Resort Club
Mariner’s Boathouse


What I usetacould but don't any more:

*SW Florida HGVC Resorts*

Seawatch on the Beach
The Cottages at South Seas Resort
Planatation Bay Villas at South Seas Resort
Plantation Beach Club at South Seas Resort
Plantation House at South Seas Resort
South Seas Club at South Seas Resort
The Charter Club of Marco Beach
Club Regency of Marco Island
Eagle’s Nest Beach Resort
The Surf Club Resort
Casa Ybel Resort
Hurricane House Resort
Sanibel Cottage Resort
Shell Island Beach Club
Tortuga Beach Club Resort


----------



## JLB

Actually my figures are skewed a little high.  I don't search *January*; I search 12/28 -2/1.

For this morning for example, 5 of 9 for SW FL and 15 of 52 for Resorts on the Beach for '08 are December-only dates.


----------



## JLB

And if you adjust for Dec. checkins, for 2007 there are no resorts available for January in SW FL and 12 of 59 are December-only check-ins.


----------



## JLB

This is so pronounced, the lack of activity, that I can't mention it too many times.

For SW FL for January, 2008, there have been 7, 8 or 9 resorts available every day since February 15.  That's 15 weeks!!!

The only movement appears to be a very rare deposit or when something is taken and then reappears the next day (thrown back, so to speak).

For an area that is supposedly in such great demand, the lack of movement in inventory is almost too much to believe.  Perhaps it speaks about the quality of the resorts that are available.



			
				JLB said:
			
		

> A comment I haven't made for awhile, but that has always held true, is how little movement there is from day to day.  It is not the wildly fluctuating picture that some try to have you believe.
> 
> For my Resorts on the Beach, one now in the upper 50s and the other in the upper 40s, it seldoms fluctuates more than one resort a day.  In the last month the most either has fluctuated from one day to the next is four.
> 
> The picture I am seeing is one of very little activity, again relative to what some would have you believe.


----------



## JLB

It's at the point where the number of Resorts on the Beach for January, 2007 (decreasing) is the same as the number for January, 2008 (increasing).  

52

January, 2007 maxxed at 68 in September, 2005.


----------



## JLB

Yesterday (July 17) there were no resorts available for this coming January in SW Florida.  I figured that was probably the earliest that had ever occurred.  I thought that sometime when I was not under the gun to get a new floor installed in Jenny's bathroom, instead of being on timeshare forums on the computer :wink: , I would go back and take a look.

Then this morning I remembered that I changed the start date of my January searches from January 1 to December 28 sometime during the last year, and that Lehigh has been available for 12/30 only for quite some time.

When I checked back, I saw that the first time only Lehigh was available, and only for 12/30 (nothing in January), was February 10 of this year.  That would be the earliest I ever saw nothing in SW Florida for the following January.

Which raises the question---if there is nothing to see how can you see it?


----------



## JLB

I am going to assume that the new RCI.com is still acting up.

This time it is Resorts on the Beach. For Jan/07 it has been running in the 40's and today it is 6. For Jan/08 it has been running in the 50's and today it is 2.


----------



## JLB

Having searched every day for nearly 200 days without even a hint of anything decent for SW Florida, today I bit the bullet and took a Gold Crown on Longboat Key for Jan, 2008. Since the good resorts in that area also go early and don't reappear, I thought it was best to sacrifice our favorite area for a not-so-bad area and a great resort.

We could do worse than a 1-bedroom, 2 bath Gold Crown on the Beach for January in a sub-tropical area. The 2-bath is important because we will probably share it with friends.

I also redeemed and used RCI Elite Rewards Dollars, so even though that premium is not a very good premium, it did pay for this exchange.

We can still travel to Bonita Springs/Estero to see Rapmarks and Conch Man and maybe have a birthday dinner wearing el sombrero grande.


----------



## JLB

*Pinch Me!*

When I searched this morning there was a 2-bedroom at Sandpiper Beach Club on Siesta Key, one of the settlefors I was really looking.

So I called Linda in new Brunswick and she made the switch.


----------



## JLB

The week I used to get this exchange had been a real trooper. We had become really close and I hate to see him go. 

The start date on it is 7/29/06, so I had deposited it two years ago, and started searching with it almost immediately.

At a minimum of four searches a day every day I've been home, and some days many, many more, that's way over 3000 searches!


----------



## JLB

FWIW, the Guide that did the switch, Linda in New Brunswick, was sharp and we talked awhile.  We talked about what I do to get exchanges.

She said, "That's why you get the 2-bedroom Gold Crown on Siesta Key in January!"


----------



## Neesie

I'm happy to hear that you got something; it sounds pretty nice.


----------



## JLB

Thanks. . . .


----------



## JLB

Although it could just be the glitchiness of the _new and improved _RCI.com, a phenomenon we go through with every improvement, it appears that even the less desirable areas and resorts are now being taken in Resorts on the Beach for January, 2007, now less than six months out.

45 days ago there were mid-50's available each search and this morning there are only 34, of course mostly in the NE and Panhandle.


----------



## Neesie

I just put in a request for Jan 07 and was offered The Resort on Cocoa Beach (which I didn't want because I exchanged another resort in Cocoa Beach to go somewhere else).  Then was offered the Driftwood Inn in Vero which would have been a studio; and another studio in Destin (sigh).  I'm just trying to use up a banked week before it expires.  I was offered something else in Mexico (Grand Mayan Riviera Mayan in Cancun).  Have never been to Mexico but am definitely going to check it out.  Already posted on the Mexico board.

I was really hoping to use my condo in Cocoa Beach (I didn't bank 07) and use the following week somewhere else in Florida.  We're not opposed to driving.  If we don't use our condo I'll probably list it on the last minute rentals.


----------



## JLB

On another forum someone with an ongoing search for Caribbean and SW FL beach for more than a year posted that RCI told her that they had had *zero *deposits for either area for the week she wants next Spring.


----------



## JLB

*Worse Than It Appears*

I need to mention that the lack of availaibility now is even more dire over previous years than my figures indicate.

For years the start date of my January searches was January 1, because we had business in Florida that coincided with that date. Back when I was showing 13 and 14 resorts available, that was between January 1 and February 1.

I now use December 28 as a start date, and that picks up extra availability that I did not see in earlier searches.

As an example, the 8/11/2006 search for January, 2008, shows 9 resorts, but 4 of them have only December 29 checkin available. 

So, I am now recording that as 9 resorts, when in previous years I would have recorded it as 5, and I am still seeing fewer now than previously.


----------



## JLB

In all the years I have done this study, and maintained the various generations of this thread, you may have noticed that I have not drawn any conclusions.  I have just stated observations.

I'll depart from that today.

I sense that if RCI is not careful, that if they do not do something, and something big and bold and brash, to restore the faith of their long-time members, and to restore the quality of exchanging to a level it once had, that it may be destined to be a company that only those who cannot do something else with their weeks use.  The meaning of that, obviously, is that it will be a place where owners of lessers resorts go to trade for other lesser resorts.

There are so many timeshare chains, point systems, rental options for owned weeks, etc., that owners can use instead of RCI (or II), and the word on the street and on these forums for several years has been to take your weeks and go somewhere else, that it appears that is what is happening.

On the _other_ forum, TennisWalt pointed out the Casa Ybel website, where owners can rent their January weeks for well over $2000.  That seems to be a much better option that giving them to an exchange company for a promise to provide a comparable vacation which they no longer seem to be able to do.

I know who knows for sure.


----------



## Neesie

Sad but true


----------



## JLB

I have now recorded my last 3400 searches.


----------



## bogey21

As my interest is SE Florida I have followed this thread with some (but only a little) interest for quite a while now.  I usually search SE Florida 2 years out and have just about always been well satisfied.  From the last Saturday in December 2007 for the 5 Weeks that the new RCI website gives me without a lot of effort I find 13 Resorts (some with multiple weeks)  in SE Florida.  Just for the heck of it I expanded the search to SE and SW Florida and came up with 25 available Resorts.

GEORGE


----------



## JLB

George:

I don't disagree.  Although I am not as familiar with all the resort in SE, I do see some  that appear to be very nice.

For that same search I see:

*A Total of 37 Resorts were found for FLORIDA/FL-SOUTHEAST & SOUTHWEST * 

(10 in SW and 27 in SE)

Since I added Resorts on the Beach to my daily searches, which I believe I did on March, 10, 2004, I have looked at Resorts on the Beach in all of Florida for January more than 1400 times.  I have posted some observations about areas many times.

The first to be taken are The Keys and SW, except for a few lesser resorts that linger a bit.  The Sarasota area and the SE stay available a little longer, and the nicer resorts are available at some point along the line.  (That is different from SW in that the better resorts *never* appear any more).

The last beachfront Gold Crown I saw in SW Florida was Seawatch on the Beach.  That was September 11, 2005.  Since then I have seen two Silver Crowns, Surf Club and Caribe.  Of course, those last less than a day.

I have been thinking about a really nice beachfront Gold Crown to go with the Sandpiper we got for 2008.  I'd settle for SE, but prefer SW or Sarasota.

Then, of course, the last area to be chosen is NE (and the Panhanbdle considering how few resorts there are there.)


----------



## JLB

*A New Twist--Checking On Assigned Units*

I've said that when exchanging, I search online and then call a Guide to see the specific unit that is available. Then I call the resort to find out more about the unit.

This morning there was a 2-bedroom, beachfront Gold Crown the week before another 2-bedroom beachfront Gold Crown we already have booked. The resort has two beachfront buildings and a bayside building.

I called RCI and the Guide told me it was Unit 107. When I said I would call the resort and asked them about it, he said, *"Would you like to call them together?"*
Why heck yes! Nice offer. Good service. That is what my crystal ball has been saying RCI is striving for.

Sure enough, a few seconds later I hear a lady at the resort asking him what he wants to know. She says it's on the bayside. 

So sorry, but nice effort!


----------



## JLB

I sense that SW Florida for January, 2008 (beginning 12/28/2007) is at it's peak.  It hit 11 resorts just this morning.  

The peak for both 2006 and 2007 (using Jan. 1 as a start date) was 9 each year.

At 16 (1/2) months out, it is the timeframe when availability has historically been at its peak.

Today there are 6 Silver Crowns available.  In the 200 or so searches I have already made for Jan. 2008, including today, no Gold Crowns have appeared.

There are some comfortable resorts available now, if you can settle for less than the lush models you were shown in all your timeshare sales presentations.


----------



## JLB

*You Better Check Twice*

Occassionally RCI.com has unexplained glitches.

This morning my 2007 searches were OK, about the same as they have been.

My 2008 searches had been running 12 or 13 for SW FL and 57 and 58 for Resorts on the Beach.  This morning they were 1 and 35.  I did them again just to make sure I had the right dates and areas.  Again, 1 and 35.

Then I went back to the beginning, to selecting the week to search with.  The results this time were 13 and 58, same as yesterday.

I was concerned bcause I have been doing some things that require a Guide and sometimes a Guide can screw things up.

I just noticed that the results for my 2007 searches were 1 and 35, so for some reason even when I changed the dates to search for 2008, it gave me the 2007 results again.

Normally stuff like that is human error, but I did it twice to be sure and it was the same both times.


----------



## JLB

As I mentioned somewhere along the way, the better resorts in the Sarasota area are still available, including today for January, 2008.


----------



## rickandcindy23

JLB, Which resort in Sarasota would you consider is the best?

My daughter and son-in-law want to travel to Sarasota to show his grandparents the new baby, which has not been born yet but will be 11 months old in January of 2008!   

We are going to be grandparents.  Yay!  It's about time.


----------



## JLB

After the sand-replentishment on Longboat Key, the consensus seems to favor Siesta Key, either Calini or Sandpiper.



			
				rickandcindy23 said:
			
		

> JLB, Which resort in Sarasota would you consider is the best?
> 
> My daughter and son-in-law want to travel to Sarasota to show his grandparents the new baby, which has not been born yet but will be 11 months old in January of 2008!
> 
> We are going to be grandparents.  Yay!  It's about time.


----------



## JLB

At a little less than four months out, the areas still available for Resorts on the Beach for January, 2007, are consistent with past results:

NE (Ormond, Daytona, New Smyrna)-23
Panhandle-4
Tampa-2
SE-1


----------



## JLB

At 15 months out, for January, 2008, there are now 5 resorts available in SW Florida.

At the same time for previous years, here are the figures:

'07-9
'06-7
'05-11
'04-11


----------



## JLB

*Question For Others*

Do you think the information I posted here, #78, would have more interest on the Exchanging board, because it shows declining RCI availability, or here in my SW Florida thread?

I have been told I have to pick one place or the other.


----------



## Walt

*There is an interest for members on both boards.*



			
				JLB said:
			
		

> Do you think the information I posted here, #78, would have more interest on the Exchanging board, because it shows declining RCI availability, or here in my SW Florida thread?
> 
> I have been told I have to pick one place or the other.



I think they should put a link on the Exchange Board (with a Sticky) to the Florida Board.

Walt :whoopie:


----------



## cluemeister

My opinion is to leave post #78 on this thread.  It is part of the larger, comprehensive picture of availability in SW Florida, not just a one time snapshot.

My 2¢


----------



## kjsgrammy

JLB:  What a wonderful thread!  Question:  I recently deposited a week with RCI to try and obtain a week for anytime between January thru March 2008 for Siesta Key, or Sanibel Island (with the exception of weeks 3 & 4 as we own at Sandpiper Beach Club and intend to use them).  Do you think I have any chance in obtaining?  I have ongoing search going, but so far, nothing is showing up.   Am I dreaming in thinking I will get something?  I notice from one of your previous messages that you were able to obtain an exchange for Sandpiper in January, 2008, but that you did this back in May, 2007 (if I'm remembering your correct message.)


----------



## JLB

Thanks.  It's always nice to find someone who appeciates similar stuff.  There are a few of us around here.

Since I do not rely on ongoing serches, I search for myself every morning, one of the benefits is that I can answer a question like this.  I know what resorts have shown up every day I've been home since March 27, 2002, when this became a daily routine.

A couple of others have done similar studies, so they can back me up on what I say.

In SW Florida (Charlotte Harbor on South) I have all but given up hope for ever seeing any of the better resorts during Snowbird Season (January-April).  By and large that means the HGVC resorts on Captiva, Sanibel, Marco Island, and the one on FMB (SOB).

In that timeframe you will be able to trade into one of the following:

_The Normal Suspects_
Lehigh Resort Club
Charlotte Bay Resort & Club
Fishermen's Village Resort Club
Marco Resort & Club
Sea Oats Beach Club
Estero Island Beach Club
Bonita Resort & Club
Lahaina Inn
Royal Beach Club
Kahlua Beach Club
Marina Village at Snug Harbor
Sunrise Bay Resort and Club
Tropical Sands
Englewood Beach Club and Resort
Windward Passage Resort
White Sands Resort Club
Mariner’s Boathouse

As I also search Resorts on the Beach, I can tell you that the first areas to be taken are The Keys and SW FL.  Fortunately, the Sarasota area, from Anna Maria Island and Holmes Beach down to Siesta Key is still available.  As things progress up the Gulf Coast, it will be the next major area to be affected by the escalation in real estate values experienced in the Ft. Myers to Marco Island area.  It will be the next area in which the better resorts will become unavailable for Exchange.

It is not quite as temperate as SW Florida and the Keys, but the January through April climate is better than the Panhandle or the NE.  Florida has four climate zones and the Sarasota area tends to fall between the central and the southern zone, with the lower Keys being a more temperate zone.

If you study historical temperatures, the difference between Key West and Sanibel, or even the Sarasota area, is that in January it does not cool off as much at night in Key West.  It's easy to look up at sites like weather.com or accuweather, but lows in Key West are normally in upper the 60's and in the other areas in the 50's.  The daytime highs are about the same.

For now the Sarasota are is still vailable and for 2008 I have still been seeing Sandpiper, Gulf Tides, Little Gull, and some lesser resorts on the beach, stuff like Resort 66 and Siesta Sands.  I have not seen Calini or Longboat Bay Club.  I wanted to double up on our Sandpiper week, but what has been available is 2 weeks before the week we got.

I have been going to SW Florida since the 70's, my first incarnation, so giving that up will be hard.

Hope that helps. 




			
				kjsgrammy said:
			
		

> JLB:  What a wonderful thread!  Question:  I recently deposited a week with RCI to try and obtain a week for anytime between January thru March 2008 for Siesta Key, or Sanibel Island (with the exception of weeks 3 & 4 as we own at Sandpiper Beach Club and intend to use them).  Do you think I have any chance in obtaining?  I have ongoing search going, but so far, nothing is showing up.   Am I dreaming in thinking I will get something?  I notice from one of your previous messages that you were able to obtain an exchange for Sandpiper in January, 2008, but that you did this back in May, 2007 (if I'm remembering your correct message.)


----------



## kjsgrammy

JLB:  Thanks for info.  I, too, do a daily search since depositing our week.  I've tried searching under SW Florida since reading your thread, but am not getting any responses.  Are you currently seeing anything on the Gulf side (other than the Orlando/Kissimmee area)?  I did expand my search out to start the last weekend in December as you explained in a previous post.  I'll keep searching and maybe I'll get lucky.  Luckily, I don't foresee us having to lose our week, as we are retired and can chose another week if nothing comes up for what I'm searching for in Siesta Key area.


----------



## JLB

I forgot to mention that the last date before Snowbird Season that any of us have seen the better resorts in SW Florida is December 15.  Typically it will be Club Regency on Marco or SOB on FMB, but occassionally a Sanibel resort.

By setting the starting date for 12/1/07, right now I am seeing 23 resorts in SW Florida, several on the beach, but only one being Gold Crown.  You just have to keep checking to get the better ones, and they obviously are not matching to ongoing seraches, because they are showing up.

I, and another person, have had some discussions with those who are in a position to know, and we are being told that stuff just isn't getting deposited like it used to.  Each of us have drawn our own conclusions.  I have been told several times that I am seeing everything there is to see.

For the ten weeks starting 1/1/08, I am seeing 5 resorts in SW Florida, all lesser resorts and only one on the beach.  For the Sarasota area I am seeing four resorts, all on the beach, but no Gold Crowns.

You might want to check out http://www.timeshareforums.com/forums/ because a few there search and post Sightings every day, and SW Florida is one of the areas they do.  I believe you have to have posted 15 times to be able to see Sightings on that site, but after that you can see them and there is no charge.


----------



## JLB

I used 12/1/07 as a start date and tried the Sarasota area.  Most of the Gold Crowns you would want to see are there.


----------



## talkamotta

I dont see anything about the Bradenton/Anna Marie/Longboat Bay area.  Is there good availability there during January?


----------



## JLB

When I say this, "_the Sarasota area, from Anna Maria Island and Holmes Beach down to Siesta Key_," that's the area I'm talking about.  



			
				talkamotta said:
			
		

> I dont see anything about the Bradenton/Anna Marie/Longboat Bay area.  Is there good availability there during January?


----------



## JLB

I have been searching SW Florida for January, 2008 every day for 9 months now and have not seen a Gold Crown.  The nearest ones have been on Longboat and Siesta Keys in the Sarasota area.

As far as lesser resorts in SW FL, I haven't seen many of them, either, not for Start dates in January like I used to search.  Most of the ones I've seen have been for Dec. 28 or 29 start dates.


----------



## JLB

*Settlefor*

Based on my years of daily searching, I have concluded that it is now passed the time when we would likely get a nice resort in SW FL for January, 2008.

To complete our January, 2008 plans, yesterday I _settledfor_ a resort being discussed a lot on http://www.timeshareforums.com/forums/index.php, Morritt's Grand Resort on Grand Cayman.  I would not have known about it's availability without the Sightings being reported.

PS--Two other couples have already said they would like to go with us!

(Bad links removed)


----------



## anne1125

Jim, I don't get anything with these links.

Where are you going?

Anne


----------



## JLB

Me neither.  They are Sightings links at TS4Ms, so they may be shortlived.  They were all working fine when I posted them.

Try this one, this resort has been a hot-topic on TS4Ms.


http://www.morrittsgrand.com/morrittsgrand.htm


----------



## JLB

Sightings are free and abundant on http://www.timeshareforums.com/forums/ but I forgot that you have to have 15 posts under your belt to be able to view them.  

By using links you are going there as a guest.  That's my guess.




			
				anne1125 said:
			
		

> Jim, I don't get anything with these links.
> 
> Where are you going?
> 
> Anne


----------



## JLB

Someone once said that all good things must come to an end, and people have been repeating it ever since. I don't know why because I can't think of any logical reason why all good things must come an end. Surely there must be some good things that do not come to an end.

But, I suspect my study of SW Florida in January will come to an end, and probably January, 2009 (one more year) will be the last one I document.

That would make six consecutive Januarys I studied, and I was able to document the declining availability in detail. It's probably the only empirical study of it's type.

I can't see any point in continuing it if availability does not reverse itself, because with 2009 I will have shown 4 years of declined availabity.


----------



## JLB

*A Slight Increase*

There is a bit of an increase this morning in Resorts on the Beach for January 2006.  Four more than yesterday, making the total available as high as it's been in more than two months.

Two of the new ones are Gold Crowns, not in SW or the Keys, but not in NE or the Panhandle either.

If you are interested, search for five weeks starting 12/29/06.


----------



## JLB

*Anyone Care to Join Us?*

If anyone would like to join us, we will be at Morritt's Grand Resort starting 1/5/08 and Sandpiper Beach Club on Siesta Key in the Sarasota area starting 1/12/08.

As of today, there is availability at both Morritt's resorts and in the Sarasota area.


----------



## LMD

*Marco Island*

Picked up a week this AM on-line at Club Regency for 1/12/08
Lisa


----------



## JLB

That's a keeper!  RCI?

I didn't see it this morning, so you musta already got it.  

If so, that goes against the inside information I have gotten, that resorts of that nature for that timeframe will not be available on-line because deposits, if there are any, will match to ongoing search requests.



			
				LMD said:
			
		

> Picked up a week this AM on-line at Club Regency for 1/12/08
> Lisa


----------



## LMD

*RCI*

Yes..RCI..about 7am this morning. I was very surprised to see it there.
Lisa


----------



## JLB

Yeah, the day I sleep in.   



			
				LMD said:
			
		

> Yes..RCI..about 7am this morning. I was very surprised to see it there.
> Lisa


----------



## JLB

After bouncing around in the 30s and 40s for several months, in the last nine days Resorts on the Beach for Jan, 2006, plummeted from 39 to 27.

Someone suggested that those might be going to non-timeshare owners, to travel agents.

My study over the last five years has been primarily about collecting and recording data, with few judgements being made.  In this case, however, I will opin.

At this point, at 60 days out, it is clear that what is left for the NE and the Panhandle is most likely excess inventory and that it is not going to be taken.  It doesn't bother me if at a reasonably close time period out from use date--30, 45, 60, or 90 days--exchange pool inventory is offered to non-members.  That is more common sense than controversial.

*What does bother me is when any exchange pool inventory, for any reason, is never offered to other members, but offered instead at higher prices to non-members, even if to make up for a money-losing program.  That is bad business, a breach of faith to all members, and compensating one member, say one who takes a cruise at a losing price for the exchange company, by penalizing all the other members.*


----------



## JLB

*More Strange Happenings*

ROTB for '07 was in the upper 20s and lower 30s for 13 days and then 2 days ago it was 20. Then 23 yesterday.

Today it is 30 again, but with new resorts, not the stuff that disappeared two days ago.


----------



## westrougers

*Availability SW and ROB*

Just out of curiosity, I checked availability for 5 weeks, using my SA weeks starting Jan 12/13 for 2007 and 2008.

Results show

Castleburn - 2007 - for ROB - 5 choices  SW 0
               - 2008                 6 choices  SW 0

for Durban Sands - 2007 - for ROB - 12  SW 0  (Cocoa Beach and Palm incl)
                        - 2008              -  11  SW 0

So I suspect that while DS is much better trader than Castleburn (ironically latter is GC), SW Florida is not likely possible.

BTW, we already have 4 weeks booked at excellent resorts (Vistana, Silver Lakes, FF Cypress Palms and Mizner Place) which we confirmed during the summer, so we are happy.

What are you folks trading with to get reasonably good properties in SW area?

Mike


----------



## JLB

Resorts On The Beach for '07 took another beating this week, dropping from 26 to 17.

All but two are in Ormond, Daytona or New Smyrna.


----------



## JLB

I realize that there is a lot to read and try to follow.

But the point of my 5-year, daily study is that it does not matter what you search with.  The good stuff is just no longer available.  The lesser resorts still are available.

I, and others, have had that pretty much confirmed by those in a position to know.

Why that is, why the good stuff we used to see is no longer available, has never been explained.



			
				westrougers said:
			
		

> What are you folks trading with to get reasonably good properties in SW area?
> 
> Mike


----------



## JLB

I am going to go a step further and declare why I think that is, using rules of evidence develop from many hours of watching TV legal programs.   

I don't believe there is any _real_ evidence, other than circumstantial.  No one has provided proof positive to any possibility.

First, I believe it is possible that I previously saw (online) Gold Crowns on the beach that should have matched to ongoing searches but did not because of a computer glitch.  It is believable that there might have been a momentary timeframe soon after some of them were deposited when they were visible online when they shouldn't have been.  There is plenty of real evidence that RCI's computer have been/are glitchy.

The Glitch theory is a good one in that I didn't see the good stuff very often, at most five or six times in two years of searching.

Or it could be that very rarely a number of deposits occurred at the same time and that temporarily messed up the system, much like a bulk deposit where the computers tend to read a false supply/demand situation.  

(I believe there is a possibility that early deposits are being read falsely for the opposite supply/demand reason.  They are being deposited before a demand has been created for them, so they are given reduced trading power.)

Secondly, I believe that owners of those prime weeks do not deposit them to RCI, or at least not in the numbers they once might have, that being the least value they can get for their weeks.
- - - - - -
As to those deposits being used for rentals, no one has provided a shred of evidence in this instance.  In other areas someone has always been able to find a site where prime weeks were being offered, but never SW FL in January.  Since RCI has never tried to hide their rentals it is not logical that they would in this case either.

I also dismiss the possibility that I cannot see them because of the trading power of the week I am searching with.  It may be true that I never should have had the trading power to see them and it may be true that in the future I won't have the trading power to see them, but I have and do not.  I have matched my searches to weeks that do not have a trading power stigma and I have also confirmed that I am seeing everything available, both of those several times.

A possible link to the rental issue is that it plays into the decision to not deposit these weeks with RCI, because owners of these weeks stopped getting comparable trades.



			
				JLB said:
			
		

> Why that is, why the good stuff we used to see is no longer available, has never been explained.


----------



## JLB

*The Last 30 Days Before Check-in Dates*

Another year has passed and it is now within 30 days of another search period, January 2007.  

As you might guess, what was left for Resorts on the Beach is going fast.  30 days ago there were around 30 resorts available and now there are only 11, all located in the least desirable NE FL area.

Anything decent in SW FL was gone months ago, most of 2006 being 1 or 2 lesser resorts not on the beach.


----------



## JLB

Since it's getting close to being able to search another January, today I searched two years out, 11/1/08, for five weeks.  There were 29 Resorts on the Beach, so someone, somewhere is still depositing stuff 2 years out.


----------



## JLB

*A Sudden Surge*

Today there is a little of what I have seen in the past, a sudden surge once it is within 14 days of check-in.  SW Florida starting 12/28/06 has been running on zero for some time but today there are four resorts, ones that have not recently been available (in other words, not Lehigh).


----------



## JLB

*A Faint Glimmer of Hope*

Caribe Beach Resort/Sanibel/For January, 2008  
- - - - - -
I am now searching January, 2009.  There are 14 Resorts on the Beach and most of them are NE FL.  They are the first to arrive and the last to leave.


----------



## BevL

Just a suggestion, Jim, but now that you've flipped over to '09, a new thread might be in order.  For me, it just makes it a bit easier to compare, rather than back and forth in the same thread.  But JMHO.

BTW, I've never stayed at this resort, but picked up a Fort Myers unit with an ongoing search for January, '09 today.  Details in the sightings forum.

Bev


----------



## JLB

Yeah, I see the FMB 2-bedroom and I had seen the Sightings post. I also see Caribe for '09.  Strange seeing Sanibel and not lesser resorts, although Caribe is sorta a lesser Sanibel resort.

I know what you mean by long threads.  Most people don't have the patience for them.

Those that are following this normally just look at the updates.  Every now and then I hear from someone who also loves SW FL, and read this all the way through.


----------



## JLB

*SW Florida RCI Resort Ratings*

Lovers Key Resort has gone from Gold Crown to Hospitality or nothing :annoyed:   , depending on where you look.

Eagles Nest and Surf Club have gone from Gold Crown to Silver Crown, while Club Regency has stayed at Gold Crown.

A few resorts have gone up notch.

There's not much rhyme nor reason to it (as my high school English teacher used to spit out when angry).

It must be the same method used by the OFs in our neighborhood, where favors are divvied out or withheld based on your level of suckupedness.


----------



## JLB

*RCI Finetuning the Secret Trading Power Formula*

You know, the one they keep in the vault with the secret Bush's Baked Bean formula!  

There's been a lot of talk about reduced trading power lately, and no one is announcing, with jubilation, "Wow! I can see so much more than I could with the same week last year!" My crystal ball recently said something like, "As inventory has tightened, the movement has been toward more like-for-like exchanges," a fancy way of saying, "You ain't gonna yet what ya usetacould"  

But, unless you are one of the half-dozen nit-picking, anal-retentive people who do the same searches every day, it's hard to see the subtle differences. Even I had to look hard to see it. And I'm not totally convinced of what I am seeing.

Now, normally when someone starts one of these analytical threads my brain just goes nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, the same as it does when a timeshare salesman says something like, "Hi, my name is Georgio." But, here's what I'm seeing, the differences in trading power being so subtle that they worth noting.

First, for our favorite little ugly duckling SW FL resort, our good trader can see it for 12/8 and 12/15/2007. Our lesser trader can see it for 12/8, but not for 12/15! Wow, how is that for a subtle difference!  

Of course, it has to be that way since the start date I use is 12/28, so our lesser trader will not see anything at that resort in our search frame.  

For Resorts on the Beach, for 5 weeks starting 12/20, for 2007 and 2008, our better trader sees 66 and 46. Our lesser trader sees 35 and 2.

Our lesser trader does not see resorts for 2 years out that it sees for one year out.

But, the fact that it does see somewhat acceptable settlefors for one year out gives us hope that some of those resorts will still be available a year from now for two years from now.

That is the type of sentence that makes my brain go nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah. 

In the old days (up until maybe a year ago, or maybe more recently), a deposit either saw a resort or it didn't. And if it saw a resort, your could get up to a 1-bedroom unit or you could get any size available. That's how trading power was defined.

Now it is defined by time of year (one week making a difference) or how far ahead you search (one year ahead you can see some resorts and two years ahead you cannot).

I can assume that that is to appease the owners of the better weeks, to give them the first shot at some exchanges, the problem being that many of the owners of the better weeks have already jumped ship, not being able to get like-for-like and having found something better to do with their prime deposits. That gives me hope that some of those settlefors will still be there in a year.

All of which seems to go against RCI's former emphasis on early deposit and early confirmation, what I'm seeing now, and the last few months, contradicting and discouraging both.


----------



## Neesie

JLB said:


> I realize that there is a lot to read and try to follow.
> 
> But the point of my 5-year, daily study is that it does not matter what you search with.  *The good stuff is just no longer available*.  The lesser resorts still are available.
> 
> I, and others, have had that pretty much confirmed by those in a position to know.
> 
> Why that is, why the good stuff we used to see is no longer available, has never been explained.



JLB:  "The good stuff is just no longer available" my thoughts exactly.  Which is the reason that I inquired about a trade in Mexico this year.  Hubby just needs a shot of warm weather.  I was never crazy about the idea of Mexico, myself.  But we just got back over the weekend and must say I was more than pleasantly surprised.  I may never go back to Florida again.:whoopie:


----------



## JLB

A couple of updates, m/l confirming previous conclusions from my 10 years eek:  ) of searching on rci.com.

1. For the period 8/1/06-2/6/07, for Resorts on the Beach for 5 weeks beginning 12/28/08 (or as rci says it 28-dec-2008   ), in those 180 or so searches, there was very little fluctuation from day to day. Certainly not the wild fluctuation some lead you to believe there is.

The lowest number of resorts available was 53 and the highest was 64, with never more than a couple difference from day to day.

2. In the ongoing debate over the best method to use to get a good exhange, ongoing search v. DIY (daily searches on rci.com), of which I am an advocate of the latter and apparently in the minority, I just confirmed a deluxe one-bedroom on the beach for Sanibel for 12/28/08. (No resort, just one bedroom sitting there on the beach :whoopie:  )

So, whether it is the best way or not, it is one way, demonstrating again that not all desirable resorts in high season match to an ongoing search, and that obligating a deposit, paying a fee in advance and getting it in line is not the only way to get one.


----------



## JLB

Well, the welcome packet to Caribe, for our exchange 12/28/08, arrived this week! How's that for providing ample notice?   

So I guess it's for real, that after 30 years of going to SW Florida, after timesharing to it for 15 years, after searching it on RCI.com every day I've been home for 10 years, we are actually going to stay at a Sanibel resort, on the beach, for a whole week!!!   

No, it is not one of those HGVC resorts, but it is small and intimate (26 units), has a pool, hot tub and BBQ grills! Our best friends, and folks who enjoy our forays to SW FL just as much as we do, will share it with us (or we with them). My birthday comes around during our SW FL vacation each year, and it just keeps doing that (so far). That one will be one of the significant ones, and not 16, 18, 21 or 40.  

Unless RCI changes back in the other direction, this may be our last hurrah in SW FL, but it seems so meant to be.  :whoopie:


----------



## JLB

*SW FL 14 and 45 Day Window*

It is not something I search every day, but I do often enough to be able to say that I find it strange that there never seems to be anything in the 14 or 45 day window during Snowbird season in SW FL.

Over the years there almost always is for Hawaii (even peak season), an RCI official actually pointing that out to me a few years ago, so why not SW FL?  SW FL is a popular destination for Canadians and Europeans, and for them it would be a significant trip, similar to going to Hawaii.  Surely there would be a few last minute cancellations or late deposits, from owners who could not use their weeks.

Wouldn't you think?  It's curious.  Perhaps suspicious?   

If I remember, I will add that to my daily search, to see if perhaps there is a date at the end of Snowbird season when a 14/45-day window appears.


----------



## ronandjoan

*keeping up with you*



JLB said:


> Every now and then I hear from someone who also loves SW FL, and read this all the way through.



I try to read most of what you write... --is it possible - probably not

oh, I did say TRY


----------



## JLB

For January, 2007, at 10 months out, we are already down to just one resort available, Lehigh of course.

Actually, we reached that point on Feb. 5, at 11 months out, but another lesser resort appeared February 6 and lingered until 3 days ago.
- - - - - -
Still nothing in the 45 day window, so there either are absolutely no last minute cancellations or they are going somewhere else.


----------



## JLB

I don't even do that.    



ronandjoan said:


> I try to read most of what you write


----------



## JLB

Today there are ZERO resorts available for January, 2008. That's 10 months out.

Even though I have made it easier to see something by mvoing the start date of my daily search to 12/27, adding an earlier, easier week compared to the 1/1 start date I used to use, this is the earliest that there has been nothing available anywhere in SW FL.

For other years, here's how many months out the first ZERO appeared:

'06: 6 months
'05: 7 months
'04: 2 months
'03: 5 months

For those needing the obvious to be put into words, this is just further evidence confirming all the previous evidence of dwindling availability.


http://www.timeshareforums.com/foru...-january-plus-resorts-beach-9.html#post121393


----------



## short

JLB said:


> For those needing the obvious to be put into words, this is just further evidence confirming all the previous evidence of dwindling availability.



JLB,

Forgive me for not rereading the extensive threads on this subject but have you concluded that availability is dwindling, demand is increasing or both?  I know a large number of geezers(prebabyboomers) and baby boomers that are retiring now.

Short


----------



## JLB

I don't believe availability is dwindling.  I believe it already dwindled and has reached the limit of dwindle-ability.


----------



## LMD

*Surf Club Marco 2009*

Picked up a week at Surf Club of Marco for 1/17/09 this morning about 8:30am on-line
Lisa


----------



## BevL

One or two bedroom, Lisa?  Frustrating that I have no RCI weeks left to search for a bookend week for early 2009 - II will have no inventory for a while, I think.

Bev


----------



## LMD

*2BR*

All the timeshares on Marco Beach are 2 bedroom (Surf Club, Club Regency, Charter Club) except Eagles Nest resort which has some one bedrooms in addition to the 2 bedroom units.
Lisa


----------



## JLB

Wouldn't you know.  A bajillion consecutive mornings of searching and this morning I didn't.   

Anyway, that week would not work.  We need 1/3 or 1/4/09.

But thanks, anyway.  It goes to weaken the theory that all the good stuff automatically matches to ongoing searches.  It is also Sunday, and it has often been Sunday morning when I do see stuff, after the Saturday night maintenance.

This is the way SW FL in January has been.  Nothing.  Nothing.  Nothing.  Nothing.  Nothing.   Nothing. etc. etc. etc. Something.  Nothing.  Nothing.  Nothing.  Nothing.   



LMD said:


> Picked up a week at Surf Club of Marco for 1/17/09 this morning about 8:30am on-line
> Lisa


----------



## JLB

Today, at just over 20 months out, I confirmed the last of our SW FL trip for Jan, 2009.  Another settlefor, this time venturing north of the Caloosahatchee, but getting a 2-bedroom on a nice beach.

The little resort further south that we would prefer also just showed up, but for the week before, which we have already booked.

As scarce as these have become I have learned not to blink.  You snooze, you lose.


----------



## JLB

*January, 2009*

The number for Resorts on the Beach for January, 2009 (12/27/08 start date) continues to rise, now at 50. Eventually it should peak in the 60's.

No HGVC Gold Crowns on the beach in SW FL, but there are some decent ones in some others areas.

SW FL for January, 2009, stands at 8, all settlefors, and likely at or near it's peak.


----------



## JLB

Nothing new, but I'm still searching SW and ROTB for Januarys.

SW for '09 is hanging in there at 6-7-8, still lesser resorts, and likely the peak.

ROTB for '09 is still on it's way up.


----------



## JLB

At 6 months out, the lesser resorts for ROTB for Jan., 2007, are being taken.  In the last month it has gone down from 52 to 36.


----------



## ronandjoan

*I'm still looking for 2009*

Still watching your listings, Jim, for week 1 for 2009, ROTB hopefully


----------



## JLB

For the five weeks starting 12/27/08, this morning I saw 48 ROTBs.  What are you seeing?  What are you wanting?



ronandjoan said:


> Still watching your listings, Jim, for week 1 for 2009, ROTB hopefully


----------



## JLB

At a little over five months out, the availability of Resorts on the Beach for January is consistent with previous years. Of the 35 not-so-spectacular resorts that are available, here is where they are located:

NE-25
Panhandle-5
SE-4
NW-1

The Keys and SW have not been available for several months.

2009 is holding it's own, now at 49.


----------



## JLB

In all the years I have studied this and posted about it, none of the naysayers have found any place that the inventory formerly available is going, or uncovered any nefarious plot regarding it.

That, recent comments from inside, and comments from individual owners leads me to believe that the reduction in availability is a matter of a free operation of the marketplace. As owners have become more aware of alternatives available to them, as the Internet has made conducting business with their weeks (such as renting them themselves) easier, and as the mini-systems (in this case HGVC) have become more popular, it is the major exchange companies who are losing business.

It is not as simple as it once was: Use it or give to RCI/II.


----------



## Sea Six

I decided about 15 years ago that the only way I was going to take my vacation in the place I wanted to be at the time I wanted to be there was to buy a week at a resort I would always be happy.  No more beating my head against the wall trying to make just the right trade.  And if I chose to trade from the resort I owned and didn't get what I wanted, I was still happy because I was taking my vacation at the resort I liked the best anyway.   Time sharing turned out to be a great theory, but no guarantee you could trade even your primo resort for something else you really wanted.


----------



## JLB

I'm sure I said it way back yonder somewhere, but when we got to the ugly little resort we like to trade into this year (12/30/06), we saw that the unit and week we normally get for an exchange was for sale, and reasonable.

We knew that meant we would never get it again for an exchange.

Bright and early 1/2/07, I went to the office to tell them we wanted it.  It had been sold.  Yeah, right, on Sunday, New Year's Eve day, or Monday, New Year's Day!!!!!

And, it hasn't shown up for exchange since, and won't.


----------



## Sea Six

Instead of settling for the ugly little resort, why don't you just buy time at the resort you really want to be, and not have to spend so much time searching?  I know you have been around long enough to know what you like, and you know how to find the bargains.


----------



## JLB

Over the last half-dozen years or so, those who have followed know we *prefer* the little ugly resort.

For so many reasons.

But to explain them all on the Internet would be to encourage others to desire something we desire, something which is extremely limited, and would be a masochistic move on my part.


----------



## JLB

Here is another tidbit advocating searching online yourself rather than relying on the information/disinformation from a Guide. No one will be more interested in your deposits/trading power/exchanges than yourself.

For a couple of years we have been facing a reduction in trading power, for unexplained reasons, as many have reported. I have been doing stuff to make the good last as long as it can.  

But, with our 99th and 100th Spacebank deposits this week, I can see that the inevitable is not too far off.

Today I searched with deposit 99, 100 not being available to search with yet. 99 has historically been a top trader, a Spring Break ski week, one that matched or beat all the top traders in any trading power test. It no longer is.    

If I had to rely on a Guide, and I had them continue to search for the same resorts and the same area as in the past, we would be very disappointed, again something we hear a lot. I did the same searches as always, with the same 12/27 start date, and didn't see squat, just lesser resorts in NE FL and the Panhandle.

However, by adjusting the start date back to 12/1, I am able to see the same resorts I used to see for the later, more popular dates. I can now see the resorts that we like to visit for as late as mid-December, 12/15.

Although, like the multitude of lemmings who flock to Florida as soon as the holidays are over, we would prefer January, we can make the minor adjustment by moving our winter getaway back to December.

All things considered, our purchase price, our low annual fees, etc., it still makes using RCI the best bang for our buck, also something similar to what others have been saying.

So, for now, it is not going to heck in a handbasket.  

Now all I have to do is to convince all involved what a great deal that is.


----------



## Sea Six

Except for the minor detail that winter doesn't start until 12/22 and your "winter getaway" isn't even during the winter.


----------



## JLB

Guess your smiley didn't show up.   

People tend to be influenced by their environment, yours being different winter-wise, from those referred to as Snowbirds.   

At least in December we will be able to get golf discounts and restaurant twofers.  



Sea Six said:


> Except for the minor detail that winter doesn't start until 12/22 and your "winter getaway" isn't even during the winter.


----------



## JLB

*A Good Lesson*

Now that I think about it, this is a good trading power lesson, say for newbies.

Most often we talk about what resorts can be obtained with a deposit, but there is more to it than that. 

Sometimes trading power differences show up in size of unit available, a stronger trader can get a two or three bedroom unit.

Sometimes trading power differences show up in the time of year that a deposit can get a resort. A stronger trader can get resorts all the time, even in peak season, while a weak trader can get the same resort, but only in off season.

In my particular study, for January, 2009 my strong trader can get 51 resorts and my weak trader can only get 16. But, for December, 2007, before the start of high season, the strong trader can get 68 resorts and the weak trader 54 resorts. 

They become closer to equal in off-season.

In this particular case, my deposit is a devalued peak season week. So, a high season weak trader can get better resorts in off season.

I suspect that if you try to compare it to the value in the market place, say by rental price to the public, that the trades would be very comparable. The deposit resort may rent for $1000 and it can get the off-season trade, also about a $1000 value in the market place. But it can't get the $1500/$2000 high season week.

As Inside Guy once said, thereabouts, that things tend to find their own (true) level over time, that corrections tend to be made based on the ability to collect data. He also said that those corrections perhaps occur faster because of things we say on the Internet, that people we may not want to know things find them out because of our discussions.


----------



## JLB

All good things must come to an end (really?).

Good or not, that includes my study of January availability in SW FL. When you think about it, it is amazing that we have had a top trader for as long as we have, so that I have been able to see everything available, and document it, almost every day for over five years.

Now, with our last deposit for 2009, which was our 100th deposit to RCI, it has been confirmed that our once great-trading weeks are now mediocre. The one remaining deposit is only good to search through January, 2009.

One thing that today's comparative searches did prove is the desireablilty of SW FL over other FL areas. When I adjusted back to Dec. 1, our good trader saw SW FL resorts and our medicore traders do not. So, that is an area, timeframe, or combination, that is now off limits to all but top traders.

Unfortunately, that also means that adjusting our vacation plans back to December is not going to get us where we really want to go. There's always Orlando! 

Actually, there wasn't anything left to document in my study. SW FL during Snowbird Season through RCI is a thing of the past.


----------



## theo

Re: >>  SW FL during Snowbird Season through RCI is a thing of the past.<<
=========================================================

I don't disagree. Yet, I find myself wondering if that's equally true for folks searching RCI weeks with their RCI *points*, as opposed to searching only with deposited weeks..... 

I don't claim to know, but I still wonder, presuming (perhaps incorrectly) there would be nothing "invisible" in a points search for weeks, as there clearly would be in a weeks search for weeks (due to a week's trading power limitations).


----------



## JLB

_They_ say that things will look better with a good night's sleep, or a few hours sleep, or a wrestless, fitfull few hours , and _they_ are right. Of course,_ they_ are always right. 

This morning our eunoched weeks are seeing the places we like for December, including some two bedroom units and some GCs. So, by adjusting our winter getaway from after Christmas to before Christmas, we are good to go a little while longer.


----------



## JLB

I've laid this out here for several years, so that the Points folks have had an opportunity to beat me up with their superiority, and they have not.   

That silence answers it for me.  Stuff just isn't getting depositing.  Owners, individually, have said that, and it has been confirmed semi-officially.

If only bootleg or anon would come along and say the same thing, it would be gospel.  

The last few years, the only way I have seen to trade into HGVC GCs in SW FL in January is through HGVC, and that has been very limited.  That is another point, that the majors have been losing ground to the minis.






theo said:


> I find myself wondering if that's equally true for folks searching RCI weeks with their RCI *points*, as opposed to searching only with deposited weeks.....


----------



## JLB

As to buying what we want, where we want, when we want it, in this case DW and I have decided that the risk is not worth the potential gain--something golfers learn all too well!

Recent history has shown how hurricane prone the SW FL resorts are.  There were still some minus buildings last January.

In addition, the older, comfortable SW Florida resorts are virtually screaming Special Assessment for major physical plant overhauls in the near future.

So, for now, an occasional trade in is the safe way to go.


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## JLB

Last week I posted that because of a Spirit Air/Orbitz snafu, leaving us with no plane reservations for our Morritt's Grand exchange to Grand Cayman this coming January, I cancelled it and switched to a lesser resort, but on the beach, in SW FL.

Perhaps I am one who is more amazed by the coincidences of life than others. 

As I have been reporting, there hasn't been a resort on the beach in SW FL available for January in more than 8 months. Then, exactly at the moment we needed it, there one was. Someone else also knew it was a rare find, since it disappeared and then reappeared.

Anyway, I am amazed at how often (in life) the answer to your problem(s) just suddenly appears, just when things look bleakest.


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## JLB

*Florida, November 2007*

I played around a little after my regular daily searches.

This morning there were 64 resorts available through Last Calls for November, 2007, in Florida. The normal suspects and also some very nice places.

Searching through Exchanges there were 100 resorts. Again, the normal suspects, plus more very nice places.

Absent: The Keys or anything on the beach in SW FL. The other areas were represented.


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## JLB

*SW FL For The Next Two Years*

http://www.timeshareforums.com/forums/rci-exchange-opportunities/48918-sw-fl-next-two-years.html


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## JLB

*Sudden Surge*

For the last couple of months, Resorts on the Beach for Jan, 2009, has been languishing in the upper 40's, hitting 50 once.

Suddenly it has jumped to 58, a 20% increase!

Mostly less desireable areas and resorts, but some good stuff, too.


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## JLB

It's time for my annual report on the leftovers, the last to be taken Resorts on the Beach for January (2008).

Today there are 27 available in the following areas:

NE:  20
SE:    5
Pan:  2

Not much of a surprise, except for maybe the SE, which is normally gone by now.


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## JLB

As if I have not scrutinized SW FL in January from every conceivable angle, here is another one. 

For, January, 2009, now, at 14 months out, there are 3 resorts available. None are on the beach and all are lesser resorts.

A year ago, at 14 months out for Jan. 2008, there were 6-8 resorts.

Two years ago, at 14 months out for 2007, there were 7-9 resorts.

Three years ago, at 14 months out for 2006, there were 6-8 resorts.


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## cancun dish

My comments...  Although season in Florida is Thanksgiving through Mid April the first two weeks of the year are a bit slower any where in RCI and you should see more availability as more people deposit and less people travel.

Why do we expect any weeks sitting available during this time frame?  I would expect lehigh, charlotte resort and club and some others in southwest florida to be available but, would not expect Marco and others as they should in theory be qued (spelling) to those on a wait list.

I would encourage those who want these difficult areas to either choose from what is available or take the plunge for the unseen/unknown by entering an ongoing request.  The end results might not be the same (trading power) but, at least you are in the game...


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## JLB

Hola!  Como esta?


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## JLB

A rare occasion . . . today there is the same availability in SW FL for Jan '08 and '09.  One resort each year . . . Lehigh.

Perhaps it is an eclipse, and '08 is blocking the view of '09!


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## JLB

Predictably, now in the last two months before use date, the settlefors for Resorts on the Beach for Jan., 2008, are being taken.  A month ago the totals were in the 30's.  This morning it was 16.


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## JLB

*The 14-Day Window is Wide Open*

Here's SW FL for next week check-in:

*A Total of 9 Resorts were found for FLORIDA/FLORIDA: SOUTHWEST 
*

including some really, really great stuff.

Here's hoping the window stays open another couple of weeks.


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## JLB

Today is the first day a 14-day window search is for next week, Christmas week.

The cupboard is bare.


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## JLB

Availability for SW FL in January continues to decline.  Now it is not only the better resorts, *but also the lesser resorts that are not available.*

For January, 2009, the only resort available is Lehigh.  This is the earliest the selection has been down to just Lehigh, the most available SW FL resort for January.

In past years at 13 months out I saw 10, 8, and 9 resorts available.  Those searches had a start date of Jan. 1.  I now use 12/27, to be able to see _something_, but even adding that week on the front has not helped.

Those _in the know_ will say that this is as it should be, but it wasn't always this way.  If this is as it should be, why was it not this way a year ago, or two, or three, or four, or five?

This is a serious decline, a signal that something's up.


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## JLB

*Surge in Resorts on the Beach*

12/16/07

Weekly maintenance produced a surge in Resorts on the Beach for Jan., 2008, beginning with 12/27.

Five days ago there were only 16 in all of Florida, but this morning there are 30.  The beginning check-in date is now in the magical 14-day window.

The 30 include a SW FL settlefor that credible sources recommend.

Here are the better resorts/warmer areas:

http://www.timeshareforums.com/foru...january-plus-resorts-beach-14.html#post188816


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## Neesie

I deposited my Discovery Beach, week 1 2009 week a couple days ago.  But I think it takes them a while to bank it.  The folks at my resort usually reject it, based on the fact that they haven't billed me for my 2009 week until Nov. 08!  But I over-pay last years fees plus 15% (someone give them a clue!)  We do this every year.


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## JLB

We pay two years ahead, a requirement to deposit a future week.

In the past our resort has screwed up their accounting also.  They claimed I had not paid ahead.  I sent them my records back to 1992.  For years since 2000 it included the emails involving the transactions, the credit card statements, and the deposits to RCI, all matched up.  

In addition, they will not approve a deposit unless the fee has been paid, and they had approved them all.

They eventually conceded that it would take too much effort for them to do what I had done, to try to prove I had not paid.

When I paid this year, it came up again on one of the three weeks.  When I offered to produce the same records again, they conceded.

I believe they and we both agree that we are paid up through 2009.



Neesie said:


> I deposited my Discovery Beach, week 1 2009 week a couple days ago.  But I think it takes them a while to bank it.  The folks at my resort usually reject it, based on the fact that they haven't billed me for my 2009 week until Nov. 08!  But I over-pay last years fees plus 15% (someone give them a clue!)  We do this every year.


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## JLB

Long range searches don't change much from day to day. Resorts on the Beach for Jan 2009 is around 60 and seldom changes by more than 1 or 2 resorts each day. In recent days it has been 60, 59, 58, 58, 58, 58, 59 and 59. Not many exchanges, realtively, are being booked a year or more out.

The 45-day window is more volatile. In recent days Resorts on the Beach for January 2008 has been 16, 19, 18, 21, 23, 30, 19 and 23. Almost all of what is coming and going is in the 14-day Window.  A nice Sighting for 12/22 was reported Over There for earlier this morning, and it was gone by the time I looked a couple hours later.

Despite the efforts of RCI to get people to plan earlier, it appears that human nature is what it is. As dates get close, folks take action.

*For those who are flexible, or for those who have confirmed an exchange at a lesser resort and would like to upgrade, the 14-day window can be beneficial.*


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## JLB

*Not Going to Extra Vacations*

The way some have talked about RCI the last few years, about how they do just anything they want, you would think the logical thing, the easiest thing, would be for them to offer exchange deposits as Extra Vacations. If they disrespect their members so much, and are not concerned about repercussions, it would make sense to get $800 to $1200 for a deposit for which they would only get $164 as an exchange.

Since EVs are easy to search by location in the new _search portal_, one can fairly quickly see that EVs corroborate my study of availability, or lack thereof, during Snowbird Season. Except for Greenlink in Naples, which I don't consider to be a regular timeshare resort, there are no SW FL resorts (or other prime FL beach areas) available as an EV until April 5, and then few at that time.

Most availability as an EV is late summer and hurricane season, exactly when you would expect there to be excess inventory.

Or, as the conspiracy theorists would lead us to believe, RCI is just so crafty as to lead us to believe this is the case. 

That said, all that I am saying is that the new search format offers no evidence of wrongdoing, but I still feel it is a conflict, too much of a temptation, for an exchange company to also be a rental agent. 

It's wrong because it is inherently wrong, even if there is actually no wrong being done, if that is the case.


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## JLB

Today I confirmed that I am still seeing all there is to be seen:

http://www.timeshareforums.com/forum...tml#post189586 (Would Someone Please Search . . .)


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## JLB

*14-Day Window*

Stuff's appearing that hasn't been available for the last two years:

A Total of 6 Resorts were found for FLORIDA/FLORIDA: SOUTHWEST

There's been one or zero resorts for more than three months.

Resorts on the Beach for Jan, 2007, starting next week, also got a boost today, almost doubling.  It had been 21 and 19 the last two days, then today it is 41!!!

Last night was weekly maintenance and then all this stuff was there this morning.

Makes you wonder where it's been, or where it's come from.


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## JLB

*The 14-Day Window Comes Through*

Merry Christmas!

This morning a 2-bedroom/2-bath gulffront resort down the street from the 1-bedroom/1 bath that we have for 1/5/08 became available.  Since there are four of us, 2 couples, paying another $164 to _switch_ to it is a no-brainer.

It being Christmas Day, I put it on Hold, since I will have to talk to a Guide to do the _switch_.

So, tomorrow, hopefully, our Windward Passage 1-bedroom for 1/5 should appear online.


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## JLB

Now that I have had a chance to look into it further, the switch will also improve the quality a little more than a full point, based on others' ratings of SW FL resorts.  It will move us from the bottom of the mediocre SW FL resorts, to the top of the mediocres.  There is still a gap between it and the better, HGVC Gold Crowns, but it is close to other upper-mediocre SW FL resorts that we have stayed at, and enjoyed.

It will move us from roughly 20 percentile to 60 percentile in the ratings department.


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## MILOIOWA

Congrats!


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## JLB

Now we have room for you and yours, on the sleeper sofa in the LR!   
- - - - - -
All's well.

I could tell by the sound of his voice when he answered the phone that Mark at RCI was a veteran who could easily handle our _switch_. 

He did.

He sounded genuinely apologetic that we would not get a refund of our last exchange fee and that there would be no grace period on the new exchange.

I went online and printed our new Confirmation.

I got my searcher back, healthy and robust, despite a 1-day diversion from its assigned task.

The only strange thing is that the exchange we gave back has not appeared online.




MILOIOWA said:


> Congrats!


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## JLB

*Not Too Late*

This morning I checked to see if there is any hope for those who have not diligently searched Florida in January every day for the last two years, to see if they could still go there in the next 30 days, in the event they have a serious case of cabin fever. 

The short answer is Yes. There are 67 resorts available to exchange into.

The long answer is that there are also 66 Extra Vacations and 44 Last Calls to Florida for January.

The longer answer is that, yes, some of the same resorts can be obtained by exchange, EV and LC (all three) at some time during the month and at three different prices.


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## JLB

Three days til departure, and still looking.

New stuff for both SW FL and Resorts on the Beach is still showing up in the 14-Day Window.  One in SW FL and some ROTBs not in the NE or Panhandle.

Today is one of the rare days I can search for 3 years, '08, '09 and 0-10.


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## bccash63

JLB just wanted to let you know that within the 14 day window there were two gold crown resorts that showed up just after midnight last night.  The Charter Club of Marco 1/26/08 and Sandpiper Beach Club 1/26/08 both in 2 br.
Thanx for the info on the 14 day window--also both of these were released just after midnight and today is 1/14/08 which would be 12 days--I searched on Sat night after midnight and they were not there.  Do you know if it is at exactly 14 days before check in or less than 14 days?? thanx, Dawn


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## JLB

Thanx, that means there's still hope.  Book into a lesser resort and hope to upgrade at the last minute.

We are at Sandpiper now, and will not likely be searching for it again.

But that's another story.


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## Sea Six

I see more and more hits at the Charter Club.  I'm thinking the owners are trading their weeks because of the Crystal Shores construction.


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## JLB

*Synopsis*

Being the beginning of another year, my 11th using RCI.com, let me give the Cliff Notes version, so you don't have to read the entire novel.   

I have searched SW FL for January on RCI.com since 1997.  I started recording those almost-daily searches 3/27/02.  I have recorded the daily results for January 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009.

There has been a decline in availability.

Since using January 1 as a start date produced very little, for 2007 and 2008 I used 12/27.  Much of what has been available since I started do that is, in fact, for that last December week, Week 52, and would not have been shown in the results prior to 2007.

So, *the only reason 2007, 2008 and 2009 appear to be somewhat comparable to earlier years is because of those Week 52s.*

What I am listing here is the peak availability, the largest number of resorts seen in a search, and how many months out that result was seen:

2004:  14 resorts, 18 and 15 months out
2005:  13 resorts, 19 and 17 months out
2006:  9 resorts, 21 and 19 months out
2007:  9 resorts, 21, 20, 16, and 14 months 
2008:  13 resorts, 17 months out
2009:  8 resorts, 23 and 20 months out

You can see that the larger numbers lasted longer in 2004 through 2007, and you can already see a significant decline after moving the start back to Dec. 27, between that date for 2008 and 2009.

What is not reflected by the numbers is the quality.  I can't remember the last time I saw an HGVC Gold Crown on the Beach.  I would take one if I saw one, and the last one I took was for January, 2004.

For 2010, I am using 12/1/09 as a start date, to try to beat Snowbird Season.


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## bccash63

I didn't post last Sun am but at 1:30 cst there were 2 GC w/in the 14  day window.  The Charter Club of Marco for 2/02 checkin and The Galleon Key West 2/2 check in.  Both were gone next morning. Dawn


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## JLB

We enjoyed the Galleon.  

We got it a Week 1 after I started searching Resorts on the Beach.  That year we flew into Orlando with a couple that vacations with us, got a rental car, and drove to Bonita Beach.  The following Friday we drove to Orlando and took them to the airport the next day.  We then went on to Key West, The Galleon.  The following Friday we drove to Orlando, picked up my BIL and SIL at the airport on Saturday, and drove to Ft. Myers Beach.  The following Friday we drove to Orlando, where we had a 10:30 tee time, and flew back home the next day.   

Our other Gold Crown was a Week 1 at Club Regency.  We liked it too.




bccash63 said:


> I didn't post last Sun am but at 1:30 cst there were 2 GC w/in the 14  day window.  The Charter Club of Marco for 2/02 checkin and The Galleon Key West 2/2 check in.  Both were gone next morning. Dawn


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## JLB

Perhaps a more revealing figure is the number of resorts available 12 months out.  Searching in January for the next January, there used to be quite a few resorts available each day, a low of 3 and a high of 8, but normally 4 to 6.

Now, a year out for January, 2009, there is only 1, and it is for a December check-in.  For actual January check-ins, the number has been zero for most days for some time now.

So, now, except for occasional deposits, all the depositin' and all the pickin' for next January has already been done.


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## JLB

I was looking through my records and I noticed that I cancelled a 2-bedroom at Little Gull, a fabulous place that I mini-reviewed a couple weeks ago.  Actually, I switched it to a lesser, 1-bedroom, but OK, FMB resort, to be nearer Rapmarks, so we could golf with them.

So, sometimes I switch down, for reasons besides the resort.


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## JLB

*The End Is Near!  The End Is Near!*

The end of my daily searching for SW FL in January!   

Variables have changed enough that the validity will be a little weak not long from now, whenever I _use_ the searcher I have been using since 2005.   

There is little new news to be reported, anyway, as what is done is done.

But, over the years I have spoke of the_ lesser_ resorts, those most likely to be available, available because owners in those resorts still deposit with RCI.  Of course, I could rattle off 15 or 20 resorts that fit in that category, but, in order to make it up-to-date, I am going to list the ones that actually are appearing, as they appear.

In this case, it is for January, 2010, and, because of the reduced inventory, the start date of that search is Dec. 1, 2009.  I am also using a lesser trader, but I have played around with it enough to know that it sees the lesser resorts in the lesser timeframe (before January 1).

I started this search while we were in FL this year, 1/4-1/18, and started recording the results 1/19.  Two resorts have been available every day, Marco Resort and Club & Tropical Sands.  Today a third resort appeared, Island Towers.


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## atlanticwatergate

*SW Florida Frustrated*



bccash63 said:


> JLB just wanted to let you know that within the 14 day window there were two gold crown resorts that showed up just after midnight last night.  The Charter Club of Marco 1/26/08 and Sandpiper Beach Club 1/26/08 both in 2 br.
> Thanx for the info on the 14 day window--also both of these were released just after midnight and today is 1/14/08 which would be 12 days--I searched on Sat night after midnight and they were not there.  Do you know if it is at exactly 14 days before check in or less than 14 days?? thanx, Dawn



I follow this string on and off. I have a ton of HGVC points but rarely see availability for SW FLA. I notice you (Dawn and JLB) check RCI right after Midnight correct? Is this when the load the days units?? I have an RCI/HGVC search and an RCI weeks search and I am trying to get SW FLA next month. Am I dreaming?? Any advice in my search??

Thanks


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## JLB

I am not a witching hour practitioner.  I search with my morning coffee.

Yeah, you're pretty much dreaming, but we have been seeing stuff in the 14-day window, like our switch to Bel Air Beach Club about 10 days before checkin.  Just keeping trying online.

Then toward the end of January, in that thread where someone was trying to give a deposit away, I posted stuff I saw in the 14-Day Window.

I have searched my regular search through HGVC also, a friend letting me borrow their account.  It, too, was scarce, but the time I did it I did find something when nothing was available through RCI.

HGVC is a place I feel weeks at the better SW FL resorts are being deposited, rather than RCI or II, and I doubt that many Snowbird Weeks are going to HGVC either.


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## JLB

Another of the Normal Suspects/Most Likely to Appear:  

Charlotte Bay Resort and Club, Charlotte Harbor.

Astoundingly now a Silver Crown, same as some truly oustanding resorts on Sanibel, FMB and Marco.


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## JLB

Sea Oats Beach Club


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## JLB

*Summer on the Beach*

I have also been searching Resorts on the Beach for 10 weeks starting 6/1/09, just resorts that have units allowing more than 6.  

That, too, is a tough one.

I can see how timesharing would be limited to a large family.


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## JLB

Another normal suspect:  Lahaina Inn Resort  (#0459)


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## JLB

I keep searching after booking exchanges, and _switch_ if something better shows up.

This week an 1800 sq-ft, 2-bed/2-bath, Lighthouse, on Sanibel appeared for 1/10/09.  It might be the first time I have ever seen it. 

Since there are two couples in our group, I _switched_ from a small 1-bed/1-bath on Sanibel.  We lost $119 of the first exchange fee, and, of course, had to pay another one.

Lighthouse was the only thing in that day's search and the week we gave back did not re-appear online.

So, for next January, we now have 2 2-bed/2-bath resorts, so we can accomodate whomever of two other couples cares to tag along, to enjoy the beach and golf with Rapmarks and Conchman.   

So, far, it still appears to be the last year we will be able to go in January, not being able to see stuff for January, 2010, but seeing stuff for Dec. 2009.

It's nice to get it out of the more expensive holiday travel period, for rental car and plane.


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## JLB

Another Normal Suspect:  Caribbean Beach Club


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## JLB

Another Normal Suspect:  Windward Passage Resort


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## JLB

ditto:  Fishermen's Village Resort Club  (#4851)


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## JLB

ditto:  Estero Island Beach Club


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## JLB

To show how little movement there is at two years out, these three resorts have not been taken and have been available every day.



JLB said:


> I started this search while we were in FL this year, 1/4-1/18, and started recording the results 1/19.  Two resorts have been available every day, Marco Resort and Club & Tropical Sands.  Today a third resort appeared, Island Towers.


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## JLB

Another Normal Suspect:  Sandrift Resort  (#5143)


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## JLB

*Still Making It Work For Us*

Despite the declining availability of better resorts, the reduced trading power of our deposits, the advice of ex-spirts saying the only way to get better exchanges is through ongoing searches, and the criticism of Weeks by the pundits suggesting it is an archaic, outmoded dinosaur of a system, it has come through again.  

I just snagged one of the very nice SW FL HGVC resorts on the beach through my daily online search.  Once again something we like showed up.  Since I used deposit 105 for this one, something OK has been showing up for a long, long time.

To get it I only had to adjust our vacation dates back a couple or three weeks, from peak January to less-than-peak December, a relatively minor change.

We have never paid a penny to upgrade anything to anything--Weeks to Points, Fixed to Floating, ad infinitim . . .


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