# Future values of european currencies after breakup of euro



## Carolinian (Dec 17, 2011)

This projection of the values of currencies of individual countreis in Europe after the breakup of the euro is interesting:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...tes-could-collapse-after-a-Euro-break-up.html


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## pedro47 (Dec 17, 2011)

Looking at this graph the U S Dollars should be stronger next year in Europe with more purchasing power?


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## Timeshare Von (Dec 17, 2011)

With a trip planned for Ireland in April/May 2012, I'm just hoping it won't adversely affect our finances for the trip!


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## Carolinian (Dec 18, 2011)

Since this graph is from a major British newspaper, the values are given in British pence, but the article attached says they are calculating the pound itself somewhat reduced against the US dollar.  For 2012, they calculate a reduced value for all component countries of the euro, and even by 2016 only Germany sees its currency rise to its present equivalent agaisnt the pound.  If there projections are correct, the coming years will be a good time to travel to Europe for Americans.


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## Blues (Dec 19, 2011)

Well, I calculate today's value (fluctuates by the minute) at 83.8 pence per Euro.  The chart shows the countries that will recover to above that point as: Austria, Finland, Germany, and Netherlands.

Still, your point is very well taken.  It does indeed look like it will be a good several years to travel to Europe.  I'm looking forward to our trip to England and Scotland next summer.  Of course, I was foolish enough to get my niece to buy me some pounds when she was there, to lock in $1.60.  Oh well, I didn't get very many; just enough to tide me over when I first arrive.

One thing that mystifies me -- if they're calculating that the aggregate value of the currencies right now is somewhere south of 70 pence, what's propping up the Euro right now?

-Bob


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## Passepartout (Dec 19, 2011)

Blues said:


> It does indeed look like it will be a good several years to travel to Europe.  I'm looking forward to our trip to England and Scotland next summer.  Of course, I was foolish enough to get my niece to buy me some pounds when she was there, to lock in $1.60.
> -Bob



I bought some Euros as 'seed money' or to have some pre-ATM spending money for a future trip last Summer. Iirc, the exchange was about $1.40 each. Oh well, sometimes even the best laid plans go awry.

Jim


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## Carolinian (Dec 20, 2011)

There has been some discussion of Chinese purchases on the open market that have kept the euro from falling as much as it should have by now.  There is a limit to how much the Chinese have an appetite for, and when they stop, that is unlikely to be a publicized event like other triggering events would be.

Sometimes hidden factors can impact currency values as much as those which are in the open.  A good example is in the runup to the introduction of the euros when all the component currencies were tied together in the exchange rate mechanism but physical euros were not yet issued.  To the great surprise of most economists, the values of all the component currencies started dropping significantly against the dollar even though their fundamentals at the time were significantly better than the dollar. They were scratching their heads for the reason, until _The Economist_ magazine figured it out, that there were massive flows of money from two unrecorded sources, ''mattress money'' and ''suitcase money''.  The former reflected the savings of eastern Europeans who did not trust banks and so hid their savings around their homes, while the latter reflected money from criminal enterprises that could not be put in banks as that might require explanations so was kept in suitcases.  There were two main currencies for both of these types of money, US dollars and German marks.  Criminals could not exactly put their money in banks to have it converted at the time of the currency change and needed to get out of marks and into dollars in increments to avoid calling attention to themselves.  Eastern Europeans had sour experiences with currency changes and were afraid their marks would be worthless if they waited too long.  So this massive, off the books, conversion of marks to dollars raised the value of the dollar against all currencies tied to the mark in the exchange rate mechanism.  Incidentally, there was also a prediction that the euro when introduced would largely replace the dollar in many parts of the world for suitcase money since the printing of 500 euro and 200 euro banknotes made carrying large sums of illicit money much easier than the dollar which had the 100 as the largest denomination in circulation.




Blues said:


> Well, I calculate today's value (fluctuates by the minute) at 83.8 pence per Euro.  The chart shows the countries that will recover to above that point as: Austria, Finland, Germany, and Netherlands.
> 
> Still, your point is very well taken.  It does indeed look like it will be a good several years to travel to Europe.  I'm looking forward to our trip to England and Scotland next summer.  Of course, I was foolish enough to get my niece to buy me some pounds when she was there, to lock in $1.60.  Oh well, I didn't get very many; just enough to tide me over when I first arrive.
> 
> ...


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## Blues (Dec 20, 2011)

Thanks for the history lesson!  Great explanation.

-Bob


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## Ireland'sCall (Dec 20, 2011)

Timeshare Von said:


> With a trip planned for Ireland in April/May 2012, I'm just hoping it won't adversely affect our finances for the trip!


 I think you will do really well on the exchange ...enjoy  !.Feel free to contact me should you need any local advice,
Regards 
G


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## Timeshare Von (Dec 23, 2011)

Ireland'sCall said:


> I think you will do really well on the exchange ...enjoy  !.Feel free to contact me should you need any local advice,
> Regards
> G



Thanks G . . . I'm sure as the time comes closer I may have some questions.

Von


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## Laurie (Dec 24, 2011)

Advice for those of us who returned from our last European trip with some unspent Euros, unconcerned because we always like to have some on hand for the next trip? Exchange them for $ now? Where?


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## Carol C (Dec 24, 2011)

Laurie said:


> Advice for those of us who returned from our last European trip with some unspent Euros, unconcerned because we always like to have some on hand for the next trip? Exchange them for $ now? Where?



I have about 130 euros I'm thinking of hiding under my mattress,  Laurie. Just in case the US dollar crashes first...ya never know!


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## Passepartout (Dec 24, 2011)

Laurie said:


> Advice for those of us who returned from our last European trip with some unspent Euros, unconcerned because we always like to have some on hand for the next trip? Exchange them for $ now? Where?



Quick! Book a trip to Europe and spend 'em! 

Jim


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## Carolinian (Dec 25, 2011)

With the rates you get for exchange in the US, it is probably not worth trying to exchange them.

I saw a description of the US dollar as ''the least sick horse in line at the glue factory''.  Still, I prefer to keep funds in Norwegian kronor.  As long as the Swiss are taking active measures to keep the franc from rising against the euro, it may not be the choice it once was, but I am holding on to my francs as the fundamentals there mean that is one currency that is never going to fall off the cliff.  The fundamentals of the loony, the Canadian dollar are also much better than its US counterpart, but the loony is considered a ''commodity currency'' like the Oz dollar and can rise and fall with the commodity markets. I like buying loonies when they have about completed a commodity-related downswing, and holding them long term.


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## Blues (Jan 1, 2012)

Laurie and CarolC - our trip will also take us through Paris for a couple of days, and I haven't pre-purchased any Euros.  I'd be happy to buy a small amount (100-200 Euros) at today's exchange rate (say, $1.30), if you can figure a secure way to send them.  Perhaps just insured US Mail?  Please send email or PM if interested.

Hmmm, maybe we should open up the TUG currency exchange?   

-Bob


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