# Direct Disney purchase value increasing with time?



## simon.fisher.2 (Mar 4, 2014)

Hello All!

My fiance and I are members of DVC with 160 points at AKV (resale). After some considerable thinking, we want to be on the monorail route and will likely sell our AKV contract and purchase a BLT contract.

Being huge fans of Disney, we want to purchase some more points and have about 320 points. We are not sure where we want to purchase the additional 160 points at. 

I have considered purchasing points directly through Disney when the polynesian DVC villas open up. 

My question is this - Will the value of a direct Disney DVC contract improve in future years to the point that I will wish I had gone direct vs. resale?

My thought are this... my fiance and I put it on our "bucket list" to visit all of the disney parks. I figured in the future we can use points towards properties outside the US. 

I was looking at rooms in Paris and Tokyo with points and it is OUTRAGEOUS.. I don't think it is worthwhile to use points for anything other than booking direct resorts at disney world/land... 

I can't imagine using points for a cruise or even any of the other Disney resorts.. so I remain convinced that resale is the ONLY way to go..

I was hoping some of the ever so wise "Tug" members could help either confirm my thoughts.. or make a strong case that a direct Disney contract is only going to improve in value.. 

Thanks!


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## capjak (Mar 4, 2014)

Resale will be less expensive than direct now and in the future. As some of the older resorts get closer to expiration I would think there value will go down as well.  Disney will continue to raise price and/or require more points to stay at new resorts but in the end I believe resale will always be a better value.  Now if you want the poly DVC you may have to wait several years for a resale.


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## M&M (Mar 5, 2014)

simon.fisher.2 said:


> Hello All!
> 
> *After some considerable thinking, we want to be on the monorail route and will likely sell our AKV contract and purchase a BLT contract*.
> 
> ...



I Agree with the bolded points above. If I were you, I'd purchase at BLT as the # points needed and resale prices aren't nearly as high as VGF & Poly are/will be.
If you want to cruise or vacation somewhere else, you'll get more value from renting out your points (around $12/point is typical) and using the cash to purchase ranther than trying to use your points anyway.


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## DisneyDenis (Mar 5, 2014)

No matter what, resale for BLT is the way to go. If you will ALWAYS be staying either at BLT or Poly for the monorail, then sell AKV and buy into BLT. Remember there will be at least a 10% commission on the sell side and closing costs on the buy side. Your benefit will be the 11 month booking window and cheaper (standard view) options available then and not at 7 months. During high periods (Xmas and NYE weeks) this will be important. Your dues will be somewhat less for at least the next several years until BLT catches up. BLT has a high dues increase acceleration factor.

Poly is another matter. Extremely savvy DVCers - at least one TUG member (not me) that I know - have bought some direct but mostly resale, done renting of some of the points putting the money toward their entire dues bill. In essence carrying thousands of points and having all their membership fees paid. 

They have sold one or more contracts at a nice profit and turned around to buy VGF DIRECT from Disney. They are DVC Masters. The reasons for their purchase at VGF are the same as yours for buying direct at Poly. Availability of a resale whose NET cost is significantly less than direct (at a reduced DVC owner cost during pre-sale) will be many years away. During that time they can stay at the more reasonable rooms (Standard View Studio - Sleeping 5 not 4). It is expected that point inflation will make Poly VERY expensive to book, but availability of the cheapest is a major advantage. 

In addition Disney will probably have fixed weeks for the Poly like VGF and Aulani. This option will be RARE on the resale market and almost match the price direct in my opinion when resale is available.  If you can and want to vacation during the same time of year, you will really want this option even with the slightly higher point cost. You can of course convert that fixed week to regular points, but having the Poly guaranteed to you at week 48/49 (low cost Xmas time) or 51/52 (Xmas - New Years time) can be priceless.

Good Luck !!!
Denis


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## stanleyu (Mar 5, 2014)

As to your question about direct sale points being worth more: Worth more how? The only dollar value is what you can get in resale. If you buy direct and later put your points up for sale, whoever buys them will be buying resale points, as you would be reselling them. So at that point they are exactly the same value as if you had bought them resale in the first place. The only way direct buy points have more value is if you plan to use them for non-Disney exchanges -- something that most experienced users will tell you never to do.


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## rfc0001 (Mar 5, 2014)

DisneyDenis said:


> No matter what, resale for BLT is the way to go. If you will ALWAYS be staying either at BLT or Poly for the monorail, then sell AKV & buy into BLT. Remember there will be at least a 10% commission on the sell side & closing costs on the buy side. Your benefit will be the 11 month booking window & cheaper (standard view) options available then & not at 7 months. During high periods (Xmas & NYE weeks) this will be important. Your dues will be somewhat less for at least the next several years until BLT catches up. BLT has a high dues increase acceleration factor.


Just to add-been a while since I crunched all the numbers on *all* available DVC resales (last May), but at that time BLT was the best *value* (not CPP). SSR was second best value, & *much* cheaper CPP so more affordable. I calculate value based on total price (upfront cost plus estimated maintenance fees over life of contract) divided by total points a contract will generate over it's life (which vary by resort)-so total cost per total points. If you want the absolute best value or want the longest duration before expiration BLT is the way to go, & has the benefit it is a MK resort, on the monorail, on the lake, etc. If upfront affordability is more of an issue, & length of contract is less important, SSR is the way to go. We own SSR & have been been able to book every room type & resort at 7 month window for Aulani, VGF, AKV, VWL, BLT, etc.-even at prime time like Spring Break, so no real benefit to buying at a particular resort unless it's worth the extra sleep at night to get the resort you want. VGF availability is fine at 7 mos-Studio Lake views go fast as do all MK studios right at 7months (on the day)-so you have to be right at 7 months, but if you do, it's not a problem. Poly will likely be the exception to this, where it will sell out inside of 11 months, so may be worth owning if that is a must.


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## stoler527 (Mar 6, 2014)

I wouldn't sell and rebuy somewhere else without trying out the prospective resort first.

Since you are already owners, there is no hurry. At the seven month window, get a monorail resort and try it out. Then try another one. Better yet, try for a split stay at two different resorts. This will let you know where you want to buy.

A large part of a Disney vacation is the Kool-aid. I feel it at some resorts and not at others. There is no good way to tell without staying at the resort.

We bought SSR sight unseen because we loved OKW, but wanted a longer contract. Since there were so many similarities, we were sure we would love SSR. For us, OKW had Kool-aid and SSR did not. 

Since there are costs involved in buying and selling, take your time and try out existing resorts before purchasing. Even for Poly, if you wait you could try it out after opening.


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## JimMIA (Mar 6, 2014)

rfc0001 said:


> Just to add-been a while since I crunched all the numbers on *all* available DVC resales (last May), but at that time BLT was the best *value* (not CPP). SSR was second best value, & *much* cheaper CPP so more affordable. I calculate value based on total price (upfront cost plus estimated maintenance fees over life of contract) divided by total points a contract will generate over it's life (which vary by resort)-so total cost per total points. If you want the absolute best value or want the longest duration before expiration BLT is the way to go, & has the benefit it is a MK resort, on the monorail, on the lake, etc. If upfront affordability is more of an issue, & length of contract is less important, SSR is the way to go. We own SSR & have been been able to book every room type & resort at 7 month window for Aulani, VGF, AKV, VWL, BLT, etc.-even at prime time like Spring Break, so no real benefit to buying at a particular resort unless it's worth the extra sleep at night to get the resort you want. VGF availability is fine at 7 mos-Studio Lake views go fast as do all MK studios right at 7months (on the day)-so you have to be right at 7 months, but if you do, it's not a problem. Poly will likely be the exception to this, where it will sell out inside of 11 months, so may be worth owning if that is a must.


There are many ways to crunch the numbers.  

Personally, I think it is a mistake to assume ownership for the full length of the contract.  I have no idea what I'll be doing 30-50 years from now, so I would not make assumptions based on that time period.  

I prefer a much shorter timeframe, like 10-15 years, assuming a recovery of about 30-40% of the average resale price.  In other words, if BLT is currently going for $130 direct and about $95 resale, I'd assume recovering $28-$38 per point net-net when I sell in 10-15 years.  Needless to say, that changes the math quite a bit.  _(Obviously, my assumptions are as arbitrary as anyone else's.  Just offering another point of view.)_

The other caution I would offer in number-crunching is that MFs tend to be artificially low at the inception of sales and often accelerate rapidly once the resort is sold out.  Comparing BLT with SSR, for example, in the six years of BLT's existance, its MFs have increased at almost double the rate of SSR's.  BLT has gone from $3.67 to $4.78 ($1.11 increase) in six years; SSR has gone from $4.34 to $4.91 ($.57 increase).  

Also, if you look at the MFs for those resorts co-located with Disney deluxe hotels, you will see that they tend to range higher than the standalone, condo-style resorts like SSR and OKW.  So while a new resort may initially have lower dues, I would expect the hotel resorts to eventually be somewhat higher than the standalones because they have more infrastructure and overhead.  If you look at BCV, BWV and VWL compared to SSR and OKW, you'll see what I mean.


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## rfc0001 (Mar 7, 2014)

JimMIA said:


> There are many ways to crunch the numbers.
> 
> Personally, I think it is a mistake to assume ownership for the full length of the contract. I have no idea what I'll be doing 30-50 years from now, so I would not make assumptions based on that time period.
> 
> ...


The comparison I'm talking about is value per year so regardless of years of ownership -- something worth $10/year vs. $9/year is still a better value for the 5 years you own it and the still worth more for the remaining years left on it when you go to resell it, which affects resale -- value is value regardless of who the owner is (you or a future owner). MFs do consistently go up over time, but they remain relatively higher or lower relative to the particular resort's cost structure. For example, for all the resorts expiring in 2042, the MFs range from $5.34/pt (OKW) to $7.41/pt (VB); likewise for all resorts expiring n 2060-2061, MFs range from $4.50/pt (BLT) to $6.25/pt (AHV). Within these groups, the relative cost will remain pretty constant (VB and AHV will always be highest since they are beach properties with more amenities).


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## JudyS (Mar 8, 2014)

stanleyu said:


> As to your question about direct sale points being worth more: Worth more how? The only dollar value is what you can get in resale. If you buy direct and later put your points up for sale, whoever buys them will be buying resale points, as you would be reselling them. So at that point they are exactly the same value as if you had bought them resale in the first place. The only way direct buy points have more value is if you plan to use them for non-Disney exchanges -- something that most experienced users will tell you never to do.


+1!

I really see no advantage to buying direct from Disney, giving the prices they are charging.


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## littlestar (Mar 8, 2014)

I see no advantage of purchasing direct with the high prices compared to resale.  The only exception might be a _small_ add-on say of 25 points to an existing contract.  Sometimes those are hard to find in your use year. 

One thing to keep in mind, as you get older you might find your tastes change.  When we first bought DVC in 2002, we only wanted to stay at the DVC's close to a park.  Well, fast forward to now and we like staying at the DVC's that sit on golf courses with plenty of green space (OKW and SSR).


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## stoler527 (Mar 8, 2014)

littlestar said:


> One thing to keep in mind, as you get older you might find your tastes change.  When we first bought DVC in 2002, we only wanted to stay at the DVC's close to a park.  Well, fast forward to now and we like staying at the DVC's that sit on golf courses with plenty of green space (OKW and SSR).



We find that we are spending less and less time in the parks. We don't like the new fast pass system that makes you schedule everything. As we have owned longer, we have been on all the rides lots of times. We still enjoy dining in different places and wandering around EPCOT. We have recently started to make trips to Universal which we thought we would never do. We even have a reservation for Hilton head for this year.

We now like OKW for the ambiance and AKV for the animals.

The conclusion for us is that it doesn't matter where we own. As we change, we can still make the system work for us. Now if you want to go christmas week or stay in value situations, that is a different story.


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## DisneyDenis (Mar 10, 2014)

I am 64 years old and still feel a excitement over a new Poly DVC. I will be very seriously considering a small purchase direct there - even with point inflation. 

My guess-timate is that the pre-opening DVC member discounted price will be $150 pp. I am also thinking that the studios will be 5 person occupancy with a Murphy bed for #5.

The new Poly DVC will be only Studios and "Grand Villas" (really 2 bedrooms) over the water.

I have BWV and SSR points, both resale. I am aware that the most optimal use of my DVC would be to use my "cheap" SSR points to stay at Poly. However, I see demand for those studios to be thru the roof and difficult to get at the 7 month booking window when I would want to go in December.


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## glypnirsgirl (Mar 10, 2014)

I bought direct from the developer twice. First, OKW in 1994. Then, SSR in November, 2004. 

When I bought the SSR contract, I bought 200 points, but essentially got 600 points (for the first year). I did that by buying a December contract in November. Because the resort was more than a year old, I got the prior year's points (2002), the current  years points (2003) and then the next month, December, I got that year's points as well.

Because of that anomaly, I was much better off buying direct from the developer --- I rented out all 600 points and recouped more than $6000 of my investment for one year of maintenance fees.

Except for some strange anomaly, you are always better off buying resale. But it is important to consider if an anomaly is available.

elaine


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## stanleyu (Mar 10, 2014)

DisneyDenis said:


> I am 64 years old and still feel a excitement over a new Poly DVC. I will be very seriously considering a small purchase direct there - even with point inflation.
> 
> My guess-timate is that the pre-opening DVC member discounted price will be $150 pp. I am also thinking that the studios will be 5 person occupancy with a Murphy bed for #5.
> 
> ...



If you want to get an idea of what the demand will be for the Poly DVC, go look at the Grand Floridian.


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## DisneyDenis (Mar 10, 2014)

stanleyu said:


> If you want to get an idea of what the demand will be for the Poly DVC, go look at the Grand Floridian.



I'm thinking Studio availability will be far, far worse... I am only interested in the Studios and there will only be Studios and "Grand Villas" (really a 2 bedroom with what will be Grand Villa points).  No real one or two bedrooms especially in terms of points (just my speculation)!!  Some people might take 2 Studios instead of the Grand Villa - again my guess is that points difference between a studio and GV is usually 5 times and more and it will be kept at that factor at the Poly. So, GVs will be taken by the rich and famous or for special occasions (weddings?, anniversaries?, etc.)

My guess is that my choice for a week's stay will be (with point inflation) during the cheapest time (Adventure Season Dec 1 - 14) is
150 - Std view Studio  (20% increase over VGF) - sleeps 5
178 - Lake view Studio (20% increase over VGF) - sleeps 5
989 - Grand Villa        (20% increase over VGF) - sleeps 9

With those point numbers Studios will go FAST.


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## jlf58 (Mar 10, 2014)

that's one opinion  



DisneyDenis said:


> I am 64 years old and still feel a excitement over a new Poly DVC. I will be very seriously considering a small purchase direct there - even with point inflation.
> 
> My guess-timate is that the pre-opening DVC member discounted price will be $150 pp. I am also thinking that the studios will be 5 person occupancy with a Murphy bed for #5.
> 
> ...


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## rfc0001 (Mar 11, 2014)

DisneyDenis said:


> The new Poly DVC will be only Studios and "Grand Villas" (really 2 bedrooms) over the water.


What do you mean by this? BLT and VGF both have lake view studios and grand villas.


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## rhonda (Mar 11, 2014)

rfc0001 said:


> What do you mean by this? BLT and VGF both have lake view studios and grand villas.


I believe the reference was attempting to say there are no known plans for 1BR and 2BR units to be built at the new Poly DVC.  The plans, as released/leaked so far, indicate the construction will only offer Studio units (in the larger buildings) and the "over water GVs."


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## DisneyDenis (Mar 11, 2014)

Thank You Rhonda !!!

That's exactly what I meant...  No middle ground... No one or two bedrooms.
Just "low" point cost and very high.  I am presuming the lower cost studios will go very fast.  In addition 2 lodges of "hotel rooms" will also be gone - converted to those DVC studios, reducing "regular non-DVC" inventory at the Poly. This should increase demand for the Studios by "cash" direct to Disney customers.

My point: only owning anywhere else in DVC will make it almost impossible to book at the Poly DVC at 7 months. I strongly feel you will have to own there. The ONLY way to own in the first year or two is Direct from DVD.


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## Beefnot (Mar 11, 2014)

DisneyDenis said:


> Thank You Rhonda !!!
> 
> That's exactly what I meant... No middle ground... No one or two bedrooms.
> Just "low" point cost and very high. I am presuming the lower cost studios will go very fast. In addition 2 lodges of "hotel rooms" will also be gone - converted to those DVC studios, reducing "regular non-DVC" inventory at the Poly. This should increase demand for the Studios by "cash" direct to Disney customers.
> ...


 

Do you think it will sell out immediately?  If not, wouldn't it be some time before there would be no availability at 7 mos?


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## rhonda (Mar 11, 2014)

Beefnot said:


> Do you think it will sell out immediately?  If not, wouldn't it be some time before there would be no availability at 7 mos?


Disney matches, to some extent, the release of inventory to DVC owners to match sales.  That is to say, if only 25% of the units have been sold, then only 25% of the units are offered to DVC owners/members.  The remaining units might be used for cash rentals through Disney's Central Reservation Office or other purposes.


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## rickandcindy23 (Mar 11, 2014)

Steamboat Bill used to be good for breaking down the numbers.  I miss his analysis of retail vs. resale DVC.  

He talked about the same thing Elaine covered.  If you can get last year's points, this year's points, and next year's points, and you pay only next year's fees, then you rent your usage through David's Rentals for $11 per point, you can take $22 per point off the top of that retail price.  

But here is my deal with DVC: If I sell my points, I am going to get less because they take away a few of the perks, like using the points for cruises, and there are a few other things I probably wouldn't miss anyway.  But DVC taints the value of the points by taking away privileges of retail.  So DVC does not appeal to me as a retail purchase for that reason.  I don't like the game, and I thought DVC was not into that game, but they are.  So if I am going to lose that value in reselling my points, I am not going to pay more retail.  Rick says that makes no sense, but it really does, when you think about it.  

Rick wants to buy GF points.  He loves everything about GF, and I do too, but I am not willing to pay through the nose for the points.  I would rather buy VGC points myself.  I would love to stay at VGC every trip to CA.


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## stanleyu (Mar 11, 2014)

The one thing I've noticed while lurking around the DVC site is that the lowest end studio units - the ones with the least number of points required - seem to always go first. So I can see why they would make the Poly almost all studios. If you need a 2BR unit just get two side-by-side studios.


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## rhonda (Mar 11, 2014)

stanleyu said:


> If you need a 2BR unit just get two side-by-side studios.


But that doesn't give you the kitchen, the living room, the jetted tub, the in-room laundry, the king bed, etc.


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## simon.fisher.2 (Mar 11, 2014)

Thank you all for your feedback. It seems pretty clear that we will stick with resale. I figure we will just buy another contract at BLT for about 320 points and sell our 160 at AKV. 

So the one question I am still wondering is... Will Disney keep adding benefits to their direct purchases that will only provide more value in the future? Such as additional resorts or membership benefits. Say for example, DVC will include free admission for the duration of your stay if you purchase direct and resale wont get that benefit. (while I dont think this will EVER happen, but is just and example) I don't see it happening without Disney "Grandfathering" current resale contracts.. but I could be wrong.. 

Thoughts?


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## Beefnot (Mar 11, 2014)

The more value they add to retail purchases (or alternatively strip from resale purchases), I wonder if it will widen the disparity between retail and resale prices. Like driving off the lot in your brand new Jag, just don't pick up a Kelley Blue Book...


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## scootr5 (Mar 11, 2014)

Beefnot said:


> The more value they add to retail purchases (or alternatively strip from resale purchases), I wonder if it will widen the disparity between retail and resale prices. Like driving off the lot in your brand new Jag, just don't pick up a Kelley Blue Book...



Take a look at Wyndham to see how well that works.....


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## DisneyDenis (Mar 12, 2014)

rickandcindy23 said:


> But here is my deal with DVC: If I sell my points, I am going to get less because they take away a few of the perks, like using the points for cruises, and there are a few other things I probably wouldn't miss anyway.  But DVC taints the value of the points by taking away privileges of retail.  So DVC does not appeal to me as a retail purchase for that reason.  I don't like the game, and I thought DVC was not into that game, but they are.



DVC only took away the extremely expensive options, eg, Disney Adventure, Cruises, Disney Collection, etc. They did us a favor.  Numerous people have analyzed this up the yazoo. Rent the points, then use that rental cash to do cruises, etc. Much cheaper. DVC for DVC stays is the most optimal use of points by far !!!


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## DisneyDenis (Mar 12, 2014)

Beefnot said:


> The more value they add to retail purchases (or alternatively strip from resale purchases), I wonder if it will widen the disparity between retail and resale prices. Like driving off the lot in your brand new Jag, just don't pick up a Kelley Blue Book...



As long as you can stay in any DVC resorts with any DVC points, I do not see resale prices dropping yet ...

Other factors like the economy and DVC resorts getting close to their end dates will be a much bigger factor in my opinion.


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