# Hawaii Visitor traffic down 14%



## Kauai Kid (Apr 21, 2008)

Maui newspaper stated that visitor traffic to the Hawaiian Island was down 14% because of the bankruptcy of ATA and Aloha.  (didn't mention a recession as a possible cause too)

I didn't realize that 90% of Hawaii's economy is based on tourism.

That said, the Maui Schooner didn't have any vacancies during the two weeks we were there.

Sterling


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## LisaRex (Apr 21, 2008)

I think the price of fuel is the indirect cause of the tourism decline.  It caused ATA and Aloha to go out of business and is keeping the fares everywhere high.  Two years ago we could fly our family of 4 to Hawaii for $2400 if we were diligent about searching for sales and being flexible. This year, had we not had a lot of SkyMiles and gotten 3 seats for free, it would have costed us $4400.  Add hotel on top of that and it's priced out a lot of families.


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## rifleman69 (Apr 21, 2008)

Discretionary income cuts out a lot of vacation time, especially to a place where you can't drive to.   (Taking a cruise or a ship is pretty much out of the question for most).


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## BocaBum99 (Apr 21, 2008)

Is this over the past 2 weeks?


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## ricoba (Apr 21, 2008)

BocaBum99 said:


> Is this over the past 2 weeks?




Here is the article from Maui News online.


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## UWSurfer (Apr 21, 2008)

BocaBum99 said:


> Is this over the past 2 weeks?



From the article:  Compared to the same period last year, officials say arrivals from the Mainland, including visitors and island residents, dropped 14.3 percent in the first two weeks of April.


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## BocaBum99 (Apr 21, 2008)

UWSurfer said:


> From the article:  Compared to the same period last year, officials say arrivals from the Mainland, including visitors and island residents, dropped 14.3 percent in the first two weeks of April.



Since Aloha and ATA represented about 15% of mainland traffic, that makes sense. 

The question is whether or not that capacity lost will be replaced by other carriers either domestic or international.  And, how much fuel costs will keep ticket prices high enough to keep travelers away into the summer months.


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## BocaBum99 (Apr 21, 2008)

ricoba said:


> Here is the article from Maui News online.




I just read the article.  It said that 2 carriers were planning on adding 30% of the lost capacity in the near term.  We'll see if other carriers make up the gap.


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## dougp26364 (Apr 21, 2008)

It's possible that this drop is due in direct relation to the bankrupcty of these two airlines. Remember, none of the other airlines were required by federal law to pick up the slack and put those with tickets on the bankrupt airlines in their empty seats. That means a lot of people were just out the cost of expensive airline tickets. I can see a large percentage of those not being able to find an affordable alternative way to get there. If they had booked refundable hotel accomadations, I can see them canceling those and just taking a vacation they can drive to or even just staying home. The entire decline probably can't be blamed on the sudden loss of two airlines but a large portion could be.


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## Icarus (Apr 21, 2008)

BocaBum99 said:


> Since Aloha and ATA represented about 15% of mainland traffic, that makes sense.



That's 15% of capacity, not 15% of the actual traffic. But the loss of the capacity is what's driving up the airfare.

Actual traffic carried by ATA and Aloha was much less than 15% according to another article I read over the weekend.

-David


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## BocaBum99 (Apr 21, 2008)

Icarus said:


> That's 15% of capacity, not 15% of the actual traffic. But the loss of the capacity is what's driving up the airfare.
> 
> Actual traffic carried by ATA and Aloha was much less than 15% according to another article I read over the weekend.
> 
> -David



Your right.  I was assuming that all carriers had about the same capacity utilization. That was a bad assumption.


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## sdtugger (Apr 21, 2008)

*I think it will get much worse*

The impact from the last 2 weeks is primarily the impact from losing two carriers and 15% of capacity.  However, the impact of the increase in prices will not be fully felt until those that purchased cheaper tickets prior to the Aloha/ATA shutdowns use their tickets.

For example, we've decided to skip one of our HI trips early next year because the fares basically doubled for us.  As a result, we'll be vacationing somewhere in the lower 48 next spring.  The loss of Aloha/ATA removes much of the pressure to keep fares low for all carriers.  That combined with the price of fuel is very likely to keep the fares high for some time.

As a result, fewer folks will fly to HI and no amount of advertising is going to dramatically change that.  Even the addition of more mainline flights (Delta and Alaska) may not help much if they aren't priced closer to the old Aloha/ATA model.

Too bad for us, but that is the current market.  The real loser will be the tourist economy in HI.


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## BocaBum99 (Apr 21, 2008)

sdtugger said:


> The impact from the last 2 weeks is primarily the impact from losing two carriers and 15% of capacity.  However, the impact of the increase in prices will not be fully felt until those that purchased cheaper tickets prior to the Aloha/ATA shutdowns use their tickets.
> 
> For example, we've decided to skip one of our HI trips early next year because the fares basically doubled for us.  As a result, we'll be vacationing somewhere in the lower 48 next spring.  The loss of Aloha/ATA removes much of the pressure to keep fares low for all carriers.  That combined with the price of fuel is very likely to keep the fares high for some time.
> 
> ...



The great unknown is international traffic.  The Japanese love Hawaii.  With the dollar so weak against the yen, how much will international traffic pick up at the same time domestic US traffic is decreasing?


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## coupon_casey (Apr 21, 2008)

it seems this might be a good time for people to go to HI that don't normally get to on trades. If more regulars trade out then there will be more available for trading in.


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## SuzanneSLO (Apr 23, 2008)

UWSurfer said:


> From the article:  Compared to the same period last year, officials say arrivals from the Mainland, including visitors and island residents, dropped 14.3 percent in the first two weeks of April.



It is probably also very significant that last year Easter was April 8, so those 2 weeks in April were prime Spring Break weeks (especially for many California schools). This year, Easter was early and prime Spring Break weeks were already over by the end of March.

A drop in traffic was expected at this time even before the Aloha and ATA bankruptcies.  AA runs a 767 from LAX direct to Maui from Christmas thru Spring Break and then switches back to a 757.  The switch this year was on April 6.

-- Suzanne


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## Kauai Kid (Apr 23, 2008)

Saw on the evening news where cruise ships are adding fuel surcharges.

Wonder what Boeing's Dreamliner miles/gallon figure is.

My immediate thought is go less frequently but stay longer since airfare is such a considerable part of the cost of the vacation.

Sterling


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## Icarus (Apr 23, 2008)

Kauai Kid said:


> Wonder what Boeing's Dreamliner miles/gallon figure is.



From memory?

IIRC, it's at least 20% more fuel efficient per passenger mile than anything flying today. Of course, at this point, that's just a prediction based on simulations. They won't know the real number until they actually start flying it in real world conditions.

That's one of the big reasons it's been very successful in pre-sales and will be very successful once production starts.

At least until somebody else comes along with something even more fuel efficient than the 787.

-David


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## gstepic (Apr 24, 2008)

*Glad i bought my ticket in December*

We booked about as earlier as we could with US Air, the same flight now is about $300 more expensive. I have never had experience with this carrier so hope they don't pull any tricks like canceling the flight and making us book at the current rates. I booked through Expedia if that makes any difference.

What the increased prices mean to me is I will have to work extra hard at trying to make some extra income. I am hooked on Hawaii so not much is going to keep me away. Only 175 days to our next visit.

Gary

PS: I have been staying away from this forum because it is torture for me right now! Trying not to think about the trip until it gets closer, not doing a good job of that today though!


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## cgeidl (Apr 30, 2008)

*Lots of Hawaii Tmeshares*

I believe the way the economy is going with less discretionary income and higher plane costs there will be many more timeshares. We go every year for about a month and visit two or three islands but now will go every 18 months to two years.
I have doubts whether when the capacity expnds that fares will go down much.My wife and I are retired military and we may try to go space available from Travis AFB for 43.20 each way but there are often delays and change of mission.We were going to England and ended up in germany once.


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## Kauai Kid (Apr 30, 2008)

gstepic said:


> We booked about as earlier as we could with US Air, the same flight now is about $300 more expensive. I have never had experience with this carrier so hope they don't pull any tricks like canceling the flight and making us book at the current rates. I booked through Expedia if that makes any difference.
> 
> What the increased prices mean to me is I will have to work extra hard at trying to make some extra income. I am hooked on Hawaii so not much is going to keep me away. Only 175 days to our next visit.
> 
> ...




Todays business section had an article about US Air and United tying the knot.  According to Consumer Reports US Air has the most unhappy customers.   I had a flite attendant on US Air coming back from Hawaii almost throw a 1/2 oz bag of pretzels at me when I asked for MORE PLEASE. 

Sterling


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## Mimi (May 5, 2008)

*VOG is a real threat on the B.I.*

Looks like the ongoing vog problem is having a severe affect on the health of plants and people currently on the Big Island. Now that it has hit the national news, it may affect tourism.  http://news.aol.com/story/_a/vog-ki...9990001?icid=1615988631x1201622379x1200302596


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## Quimby4 (May 6, 2008)

We are at the Westin Kaanapali Villas North and it is definetly quieter then it was in Sept. 06.  I can see restaruants are slower, there seems to be more advertising.  The positive is that there are plenty of pool chairs and we got a great room.  I do worry about the economy of Hawaii being so dependent on tourism.  We have cancelled future plans to HI based on the current outrageous airfare prices...we'll have to see how it plays out.


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## rifleman69 (May 6, 2008)

Got back from 10 or so days on Kauai...we never had to wait for anything.   It was much slower than August when we usually go, only packed restaurant was Duke's last Friday night.   But it's not like there wasn't anyone there either...although the Princeville golf courses were COMPLETELY DEAD.


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## daventrina (May 6, 2008)

LisaRex said:


> ...It caused ATA and Aloha to go out of business ....


ATA went under because they lost a government contract that they were using go cover losses in their scheduled service.


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