# Downside of hh or Vero ownership?



## Jason245 (Jun 23, 2018)

In looking at the resale prices, more or less those two locations are discounted on buy in price to account for higher mf. 

That being said, is there any downside (other than reservation window limitations in orlando)?  E.g. is it really that hard to make internal exchanges to non home resort?

I am trying to understand the real challenges..does anyone have personal experience? 

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## ljmiii (Jun 23, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> That being said, is there any downside (other than reservation window limitations in Orlando)? E.g. is it really that hard to make internal exchanges to non home resort?


In a word, "Yes".  At 7 months availability at DVC's Orlando resorts other than SSR and OKW is very hit or miss and if you are looking to stay at truly peak times (e.g. Christmas or Marathon weekend) even SSR and OKW may be fully booked at 7 months.

If you know you want to stay at non-peak DVC times such as spring (not counting President's Week and the weeks before and after Easter) then it doesn't matter where you buy.  Or if you will be happy with 2-4 day stays somewhere, anywhere.  But other than that, you should buy where you want to stay.

Oh...and as for personal experience, when travelling to fit the school schedule - only able to go President's Week, Easter Week, Summer, or Christmas Vacation - our luck in getting into BLT was about 33%. So we bought at BLT to complement our BCV points.


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## Dean (Jun 23, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> In looking at the resale prices, more or less those two locations are discounted on buy in price to account for higher mf.
> 
> That being said, is there any downside (other than reservation window limitations in orlando)?  E.g. is it really that hard to make internal exchanges to non home resort?
> 
> ...


Both will be more expensive long term than SSR.  You give up the 11 month window.  Both are fine properties but IMO, buying strictly for WDW would be a bad idea.  Both also present additional risk both internal to the system (might be sold off at some point) and due to weather.  The ONLY way I'd consider either would be if I would use them a portion of the time during difficult to book times or possible for VB, if you could find a subsidized contract at a competitive price.


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## littlestar (Jun 23, 2018)

I heard the closing is more expensive for Hilton Head. I would only buy Vero or Hilton Head if I wanted some stays during peak booking times for those resorts. The risk of being shut out of Walt Disney World during certain seasons would not be worth it to me. And there is also the risk of weather related special assessments for beach properties and their maintenance fees run higher than SSR. Plus, Disney Vero and Hilton Head have the 2042 end date.


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## Dean (Jun 23, 2018)

littlestar said:


> I heard the closing is more expensive for Hilton Head. I would only buy Vero or Hilton Head if I wanted peak booking times for those resorts. The risk of being shut out of Walt Disney World during certain seasons would not be worth it to me. And there is also the risk of weather related special assessments for beach properties and their maintenance fees run higher than SSR.


SC requires a lawyer involved licensed in the state.  I believe LT Transfers does close there and if they're more expensive for SC, I haven't seen it listed that SC is more expensive with them.


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## vacationhopeful (Jun 23, 2018)

Plus, your resale vaue will always be lower at the NON-WDW resorts ... WAY less interest in owning those for me. 

And AS DEMAND with regards to future need for the earily booking windows for the Orlando area resorts ... less interest to book for just a Florida beach week in any vacation system.


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## Jason245 (Jun 23, 2018)

Dean said:


> Both will be more expensive long term than SSR.  You give up the 11 month window.  Both are fine properties but IMO, buying strictly for WDW would be a bad idea.  Both also present additional risk both internal to the system (might be sold off at some point) and due to weather.  The ONLY way I'd consider either would be if I would use them a portion of the time during difficult to book times or possible for VB, if you could find a subsidized contract at a competitive price.


I am confused about more expensive long term. . By my rough math they sell for about 30 bucks less a point and mf is about 1 to 1.50 more a point.  With a little less than 25 years left the mf difference  equals the price difference on initial buy in. 

Do you have personal experience in not being able to get dvc orlando properties at 7 month mark? E.g. if you were to look into reservation system today is there zero  3 or 4 day weekend availability at orlando except for okw and ssr or are all booked? 

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## Dean (Jun 23, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> I am confused about more expensive long term. . By my rough math they sell for about 30 bucks less a point and mf is about 1 to 1.50 more a point.  With a little less than 25 years left the mf difference  equals the price difference on initial buy in.
> 
> Do you have personal experience in not being able to get dvc orlando properties at 7 month mark? E.g. if you were to look into reservation system today is there zero  3 or 4 day weekend availability at orlando except for okw and ssr or are all booked?
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


IF you compare VB to SSR, BLT & AKV through 2041, 100 pts will cost you total around $38K total at VB, 31K at SSR, $35K at BLT and $35K at AKV.  That assumes current list prices and current dues with a 3.5% inflation on the dues.  It doesn't account for investing the difference in purchase price for any of the options.  It also doesn't account for some of the savings to be had for view types the might be cheaper but unavailable after the 11 month window.  If you buy less points and use a cheaper option you couldn't get otherwise for BLT, VGF, BWV or AKV (value only), that does make a big difference but few people do that enough to make up the difference even for AKV value.  Comparing AKV used mostly for value to SSR staying at AKV in standard you have to stay more than 2/3 of the time in value to break even or come out ahead buying AKV.  

As for the 7 month window, I have lots of experience there.  I happen to believe one can be quite successful at the 7 month window as long as they're realistic.  One will not have much options for VGC or VGF and likely won't be able to get the cheaper or specialty views at BLT, AKV (value or concierge), BWV (standard) but likely can get AKV and SSR standard at time.  Studios are also a challenge so one will often be forced to a 1 BR.  Certainly buying anything expecting to get certain options at 7 month routinely is not a workable plan.  To be satisfied at the 7 month window one has to be OK staying at AKV, SSR or OKW routinely and may have to skip over the studios in favor of 1 BR often times as well.  One will be able to get other things at times but it will likely be hit or miss.  One also has to be comfortable and proficient at using the wait list which can be limiting at best.  Season also matters, some times are busier than others and it often doesn't follow the overall demand for WDW.  For example, early Dec is likely the most difficult time to reserve overall but relatively slow for Disney in general.  

Currently at 7 months out starting 22 Jan for 4 nights (to cover a long weekend) there is fairly routinely availability other than studios.  For studios it's only AKV, SSR, OKW & BLT (Lake view).  And that's one of the slowest times.  Is it workable, IMO it is if you're truly flexible, plan at 7 months out exactly and use the wait list but there's just no reason to do it if WDW is the goal.  It's more costly long term, has more risk, and you give up an 11 month option at WDW.  But if one wants to use points routinely at HHI or VB AND at times for WDW, I think it can be very workable just more expensive.


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## rhonda (Jun 23, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> Do you have personal experience in not being able to get dvc orlando properties at 7 month mark? E.g. if you were to look into reservation system today is there zero  3 or 4 day weekend availability at orlando except for okw and ssr or are all booked?


Even those of us who own DVC at a WDW resort have a good measure of personal experience booking non-home-resort stays.  I own SSR but am competing with any/all other owners at 7-months for any reservation other than SSR/Treehouses.  Expect Studios at WDW/DL to be nearly impossible but 1BR units to be fairly easy.  If you plan on booking 1BR units across WDW properties and don't mind using the waitlist, piecing reservations together a day at time and, perhaps, having to move across resorts during your visit (a 'split stay' across resorts) ... then you should be ok.  Just don't _expect_ success every time.


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## TravelTime (Jun 24, 2018)

I own at AK, VGF and Poly. I had a trip booked at these resorts for November but we decided we wanted to go sooner. So a few weeks ago, I canceled November and was able to book 8 consecutive nights at AK 1 br SV, Boardwalk 1 br Pool/Garden View and Poly studio standard view. I was thrilled to be able to rebook and get great resort options at 2 months in. I could have gotten VGF but I thought the point cost for summer was too high so we will stay at that resort during a lower season next year.

I specifically wanted to stay at 3 resorts to experience MK, Epcot and AK parks. Since DVC moves luggage between resorts, I am thinking the split reservation will be fun and not too stressful for us, esp since we pack light. Boardwalk and I think AK had many consecutive days for the summer available. The studios are hard to get but I was flexible and wanted 1 bedrooms for me and my DH because we like a little extra space. So based on my experience, I suspect you might be able to use HH and Vero points to book at the WDW resorts. Someone told me that if you book at the last minute like I did (between 30-60 days in), it can be easier than at 7 months because lots of people cancel their plans around this time.


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## TravelTime (Jun 24, 2018)

Let me just add, I agree with buy where you want to stay. That is why I own the WDW resorts I chose. It did take me many hours to piece together my 8 night stay in the order I wanted in the unit types I wanted at the 2 month mark. I like having the 11 month booking window at my home resorts but being able to re-book as needed.


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## littlestar (Jun 24, 2018)

Keep in mind that studios book the fastest. They are a hot commodity for the point rental businesses advertised as a money saver vs booking a deluxe resort room directly through Disney. So studios can be gone at 7 months. And they are even more popular now because of the parking charges Disney started in the spring.

Next most popular are 2 bedrooms. And dead last are the one bedrooms so you will have better luck booking one bedrooms inside the 7 month window. Honestly, I am surprised that DVC has not adjusted the point charts by now to raise the studio costs and lower the 1 bedrooms. Because even SSR studios are gone for certain times of the year at 7 months.

There is a guy over on the disboards who keeps track of Walt Disney World DVC 7 month availability.


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## Jason245 (Jun 24, 2018)

So to piece together what you are telling me.. studios are hardest (I might be crazy.. but I don't want em).. 1 br are easiest  (my preference ).. and 2br are 2nd easiest(2nd preferences ). 

Also on resale pricing.   Okw is selling for around 90 a point while Vero is selling at 60..  

As an fyi.  I live 3 hours from orlando. . So I am very flexible. .with higher focus on weekends  (check in Friday night and leave Sunday or Monday )


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## chriskre (Jun 24, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> So to piece together what you are telling me.. studios are hardest (I might be crazy.. but I don't want em).. 1 br are easiest  (my preference ).. and 2br are 2nd easiest(2nd preferences ).
> 
> Also on resale pricing.   Okw is selling for around 90 a point while Vero is selling at 60..
> 
> ...



I live in FL too and since you are flexible you may want to consider
buying the Weekday select pass and staying Monday to Fridays as
points are cheaper during the week than on the weekends.
That way you will get way more trips out of your ownership and
it will be way less crowded in the parks and resorts too.  

I own at SSR and Poly.  
I have no trouble using my SSR points to stay at Vero pretty much
any time I want.  Not sure of the reverse but I would not buy in
Vero personally as it's very easy to book unless you need a cottage.
I like the oceanfront hotel rooms over the TS side so that's where
I usually stay.  Not a problem getting a room in the summer when
I want to go.  

This year I gave my points to a points broker to rent and I was shocked
at what great ressies he was able to get with 2-4 months lead time.
He booked Poly, BLT, VGF, BW and was all studios.  I don't know how
they do it but nice primo ressies with my SSR points so if you stalk the
online system you probably could too along with using the waitlist option.
That's a nice perk having the waitlist option.


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## Dean (Jun 24, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> So to piece together what you are telling me.. studios are hardest (I might be crazy.. but I don't want em).. 1 br are easiest  (my preference ).. and 2br are 2nd easiest(2nd preferences ).
> 
> Also on resale pricing.   Okw is selling for around 90 a point while Vero is selling at 60..
> 
> ...


It's still more expensive and more risk with a 2042 expiration that you could avoid.  Poor plan if WDW alone is the goal.


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## icydog (Jun 27, 2018)

I happen to LOVE Disney's Vero Beach Resort. I used to own there but sold it for a loss, the only loss I ever took with a DVC resale, because the MFs were so much higher than my OKW points at the time.

Ironically there are no listings for VB on Redweek. I love the Beach Cottages and I love the hotel Oceanfront rooms. And If you book a two bedroom lockoff you have a good chance of a great ocean view.

I would really like to reserve a May Beach Cottage-- maybe I will put in a waitlist for it. May is a great time at VB since the weather is nice, the points are significantly less than in season, and there are far fewer crowds.

Did you know that Disney's Vero Beach Resort's points are based on the, now long gone, Dodger Spring Training Schedule? Talk about short sightedness on Disney's part because now they are stuck with it.

As for buying a contract there at Vero, and you want to stay at Walt Disney World--- I always go back to the old axiom that has become a DVC mantra---*Buy where you want to stay!* If you plan on going to Walt Disney World all the time do not buy VB.

That's not to say you have to buy SSR either. Buy at whichever resort you like the best. And if you haven't stayed in the Disney Vacation Club resorts on property consider renting from an owner to get a feel for it. There are several of my past guests right here on the TUG forums who have purchased DVC interests right after renting my DVC points for their incredible Disney Vacations.


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## Commish_DVC (Aug 1, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> I am confused about more expensive long term. . By my rough math they sell for about 30 bucks less a point and mf is about 1 to 1.50 more a point.  With a little less than 25 years left the mf difference  equals the price difference on initial buy in.
> 
> Do you have personal experience in not being able to get dvc orlando properties at 7 month mark? E.g. if you were to look into reservation system today is there zero  3 or 4 day weekend availability at orlando except for okw and ssr or are all booked?
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk




I have owned a 495 VB Contract since 2013 - I have booked 2BR stays at BLT, BCV & BWV Multiple times - last week was able to get a friend a 5 night studio at BCV for end of Feb 2019.  I get a special type of joy with each WDW reservation used with my VB points as I do not subscribe to the "Buy where you want to stay Mantra"   but rather the "More points the better" strategy  
In your situation, BWV 1 BR are relatively easy to get (exclude Food/Wine period).

I think what gets lost in this discussion is the excitement at the 7 month window (it can be fun!), vs the comfort of 11 month window, the home resort "premium" you pay is quite significant to remove the uncertainty,  

Good Luck


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## Dean (Aug 1, 2018)

Commish_DVC said:


> I have owned a 495 VB Contract since 2013 - I have booked 2BR stays at BLT, BCV & BWV Multiple times - last week was able to get a friend a 5 night studio at BCV for end of Feb 2019.  I get a special type of joy with each WDW reservation used with my VB points as I do not subscribe to the "Buy where you want to stay Mantra"   but rather the "More points the better" strategy
> In your situation, BWV 1 BR are relatively easy to get (exclude Food/Wine period).
> 
> I think what gets lost in this discussion is the excitement at the 7 month window (it can be fun!), vs the comfort of 11 month window, the home resort "premium" you pay is quite significant to remove the uncertainty,
> ...


I agree with the 7 month window elation and benefit but one needs to be OK with the risks.  The problem with owning VB for WDW is it's more expensive than owning the cheaper WDW options and you give up at least having an 11 month reservation.


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## Commish_DVC (Aug 2, 2018)

Agreed, but given OP is more of a 1BR renter there is much more opportunity (and less risk) than a studio renter.    There is no real "value" resale given the current market - I bought BRV in 2018 and similar resales are bid up $20 from my purchase date.   VB is the value play - and can be tempting, especially non stripped sub $60.


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## Dean (Aug 2, 2018)

Commish_DVC said:


> Agreed, but given OP is more of a 1BR renter there is much more opportunity (and less risk) than a studio renter.    There is no real "value" resale given the current market - I bought BRV in 2018 and similar resales are bid up $20 from my purchase date.   VB is the value play - and can be tempting, especially non stripped sub $60.


It totally depends on the specific numbers of course but given dues are the largest single cost over time, there is no WDW 11 month window, VB is a 2042 expiration with essentially no chance of extension and then there's the risk of weather events; it would need to save a LOT to be a good choice simply for WDW and that essentially means a subsidized contract or an uncharacteristic price.  You need VB to be free up front to break even compared to SSR at $100 per point when you assume dues at 3.5% inflation.  Just the dues alone for VB until 2042 will be as much as SSR at $100 pp plus the dues there.  And you've still got the 7 month limitation and it still both expires in 2042 and it is worth less all along the way.  It's a great resort so if one wants to use points there AND for WDW, different answer.  And if one can find a subsidized contract the numbers are different.


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## Commish_DVC (Aug 3, 2018)

What the above may overlook is that given the same level of Investment, assume $20,000, that would translate into a 333 VB Contract @$60 vs 200 points SSR @$100, 133 or 66% more points til 2042.   The extra 133 points can be used for trips but if rented at $16 (a layup) would reduce the net effective MF below SSR.    This in my view, is a perspective that should be considered when evaluating the value of VB resale, especially a larger contract Point Cow.  

Thank You

(own BRV, OKW, VB,)


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## Dean (Aug 3, 2018)

Commish_DVC said:


> What the above may overlook is that given the same level of Investment, assume $20,000, that would translate into a 333 VB Contract @$60 vs 200 points SSR @$100, 133 or 66% more points til 2042.   The extra 133 points can be used for trips but if rented at $16 (a layup) would reduce the net effective MF below SSR.    This in my view, is a perspective that should be considered when evaluating the value of VB resale, especially a larger contract Point Cow.
> 
> Thank You
> 
> (own BRV, OKW, VB,)


If you assume investing the difference in true equity investments it reduces the difference but doesn't change the answer.  Over the life of the VB contract VB will cost more than BLT, SSR & AKV and wild be expired.  All of those others will have a remaining life AND commitment.  If you buy the extra 133 points you're just compounding the additional dues, the actual answer doesn't change at any points level a single amount on a per point basis.  If you buy those extra 133 points you end up cheaper with the 3 I calculated.  Taking current dues on 100 VB points will cost you $31266 through the 2041 assuming 3.5% inflations.  SSR will be $21487, BLT $21707, & AKV 24787 and it translates to any points size mathematically.  That's just the dues.  I used a $30 pp spread for SSR & AKV and a $65 spread for BLT, all inclusive were cheaper than VB and had the WDW advantages I mentioned above.  SSR is the same as just the dues at VB, the others are more but less total, I can give you those numbers if you want.  I did not formally calculate the invest the difference valuation for several reasons including simplicity, most wouldn't do it anyway and the underling asset would still worth the proportionate difference.  Thus to make the buy VB ONLY to use at WDW a viable option one has to either get VB for free just to break even compared to SSR, the dues have to change over the current dues (? subsidized contract at VB), inflation has to be considerably less than 3.5% or the price of SSR has to go up dramatically compared to VB by around $100 per point difference ($70 more than the numbers I used).


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## littlestar (Aug 3, 2018)

Really good breakdown of cost of resale DVC in these two articles. Scroll down to see the charts. One is for 2017 and the other 2018:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-fall-2017/

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2018/

Also, interesting comments from people below the 2018 article about a Vero purchase if you only want to own the points for 12 years or so.


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## Jason245 (Aug 4, 2018)

littlestar said:


> Really good breakdown of cost of resale DVC in these two articles. Scroll down to see the charts. One is for 2017 and the other 2018:
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-fall-2017/
> 
> ...


So sounds like the math works out for about 10 years or so.. at that point it flips.. 

All I can say is that 10 years is a long time. . And a lot can happen in that time.. all that being said in less than 2 weeks we are going to be in the longest bull market in history and when that flips opportunities might present themselves in other ways.  

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## Dean (Aug 4, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> So sounds like the math works out for about 10 years or so.. at that point it flips..
> 
> All I can say is that 10 years is a long time. . And a lot can happen in that time.. all that being said in less than 2 weeks we are going to be in the longest bull market in history and when that flips opportunities might present themselves in other ways.
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


Certainly, but given the risks, if there is a change over 10 years it's almost certainly to be against VB, possibly weather related though it's small size and location have other risks besides hurricanes.  VB also BARELY dodged a special assessment a few years ago.  The crossover actually happens after about 8 years with the assumptions I posted.


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## Commish_DVC (Aug 5, 2018)

Long winded answer to continue to base any purchase decision on 2042 expiration.  In reality that is the only difference between SSR & VB - I wouldnt want to vacation at either of them - The question was does it make sense to buy low and there are valid arguments as to why it does (even though you refuse to let that logic get presented without jumping in with a time value of money caluclation)  If someone wants DVC points cheap VB is a way to get them albeit with fully disclosed, higher carrying cost- These are emotional decisions, not always LT Financial as you can use the contract for 10 years and sell it, you can rent all of your points, depends on the individual.  I have never regretted my 496 VB Contract, gladly pay the dues and then stay at the Beach Club.


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## Dean (Aug 5, 2018)

Commish_DVC said:


> Long winded answer to continue to base any purchase decision on 2042 expiration.  In reality that is the only difference between SSR & VB - I wouldnt want to vacation at either of them - The question was does it make sense to buy low and there are valid arguments as to why it does (even though you refuse to let that logic get presented without jumping in with a time value of money caluclation)  If someone wants DVC points cheap VB is a way to get them albeit with fully disclosed, higher carrying cost- These are emotional decisions, not always LT Financial as you can use the contract for 10 years and sell it, you can rent all of your points, depends on the individual.  I have never regretted my 496 VB Contract, gladly pay the dues and then stay at the Beach Club.


Regardless it's not possible to make a valid argument that VB to simply stay at WDW makes sense financially.  That is the reality and is born out by the numbers.  If you use the buy now and resell later, the difference is even more egregious if one makes reasonable assumptions on sales price and you'd have to sell by 5 years or so AND maintain the spread of $30 in this example else the difference between the 2 is even larger.  It really isn't a VB vs SSR thing, it's a VB vs WDW thing.  Owning at VB you have no 11 month window and NO financial incentive to take the additional risk.  Now if one wants to stay at VB part of the time or can find a subsidized contract, the numbers are different.  But unless one is going to stay at VB part of the time it shouldn't be an emotional decision, else it's an irrational one.


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## Panina (Aug 5, 2018)

Sometimes current affordability can be a rational decision without contemplating years out. This is what I can afford now, I want to start going now.  The future is never known, the future assumptions are not guaranteed.  

Yes straight mathematics with many year outlook can show a reason to buy one way but that is based on today, not the exact known future.  Past does not always indicate future or others can say past is an indication of the future which is how many investors lost lots of money.


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## ljmiii (Aug 5, 2018)

I've hesitated to comment as I'm not sure how much we're helping the OP at this point. That said, I offer a pair of thoughts which may be of use.

There is no reason to assume that the maintenance fees for VB will rise at the same rate as for the WDW resorts. From 2015-2018 VB increased 0.3% each year while SSR increases were in the 3.0-5.1% range. And it may just be that I've not heard about VB's tax situation, but the assessors clearly feel a substantial hike of WDW's valuation is achievable and are working toward that goal.

But the much bigger elephant in the room with all 2042 contracts is the question of what Disney will do and thus what value will they have moving forward. My impression is that Dean places a value of $0/pt on them in 2042 but I think that is exceedingly unlikely. The question then becomes how much residual value to place on WDW points and how much will that value vary by resort?

Will Disney offer an option to buy new points to existing owners?
Will they offer discounts and if so will they be a % or fixed $/pt?
Will they offer extensions of 15-20 years sometime between 2024 and 2029?
Will they seek to reduce or expand the number of non-WDW resorts?
Will they demolish any of the resorts?

All good questions.


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## Dean (Aug 5, 2018)

ljmiii said:


> I've hesitated to comment as I'm not sure how much we're helping the OP at this point. That said, I offer a pair of thoughts which may be of use.
> 
> There is no reason to assume that the maintenance fees for VB will rise at the same rate as for the WDW resorts. From 2015-2018 VB increased 0.3% each year while SSR increases were in the 3.0-5.1% range. And it may just be that I've not heard about VB's tax situation, but the assessors clearly feel a substantial hike of WDW's valuation is achievable and are working toward that goal.
> 
> ...


IMO the long term prospect on the fees is they will rise as fast or faster simply because the resort has to be maintained no matter the rest of the economy though the last few years of any resort they should dwindle down but in a given year or 2 things will vary.  I do place a value of zero at the end in Jan, 2042 and the limited experience with OKW combined with the failed sales project there makes it unlikely to be extended even if others are.  But even if it is, it's doubtful to be in a manner that's financially feasible or that alters the issue at hand in favor of VB.  They offered OKW at $15 ($25 with a discount) years ago and the real value at the time was around $7-8 per point by my calculations and that was born out by the sales prices of the 2057 contracts there vs the 2042 ones over the following few years.  We simply don't know what will happen to the resort at the end, your guess as to what is as good as mine.  However, I think it's DRAMATICALLY unlikely to be cheap enough to reduce the overall long term cost and extremely likely to increase the overall cost of ownership there looked at in the whole for anyone that participates.  Disney has challenged the tax valuations and thus far has had some success doing so.  

The variables at VB are different than WDW, esp OKW.  The weather is a much larger risk not just for catastrophic issues but it doesn't have the transportation component.  

The extension debacle is a whole different thread but what they clearly won't do is something that makes sense for the members as a no brainer or without taking a sizable chunk for themselves, it'll certainly be expensive comparatively so if they do offer an extension.

We could certainly have a similar discussion from a $$$ standpoint between SSR, OKW, AKV, etc and it's commonly done for AKV compared to SSR.  The answer is the same financially as it is for VB unless one will buy less AKV points and use them for value rooms at least 2/3 of the times, that is the rough break even financially compared to buying SSR and using for standard view at AKV.  But the dollar spread is less than the VB vs SSR and for WDW, they do the same thing save cost and the ability to guarantee a trip at 11 months out.  There are also emotional components but they can't be qualified though they don't alter the math, they are just different.  For someone that wants to stay at VB and WDW it can be a reasonable purchase.  Before the increase to the 75 pt requirement to get perks, it was a reasonable option for that purpose in some cases.  

BTW, the answer for HHI is exactly the same and the numbers are very similar.


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## Lisa P (Aug 5, 2018)

The new DVC Riviera property's high-density construction (at least 12 stories, relatively small footprint for 300 units) lends itself to lower maintenance costs.  But unlike other high density buildings (like Bay Lake), instead of being on the monorail, it will be on the new gondola transportation system.

Does it really cost much more (in dues) for a monorail resorts to provide specialty (monorail) transport as opposed to just bus or bus/boat transportation?  Is the gondola system likely to be as costly to maintain as the monorail?  Any ideas or thoughts about dues pricing and relative value at Riviera, over time?


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## Dean (Aug 6, 2018)

Lisa P said:


> The new DVC Riviera property's high-density construction (at least 12 stories, relatively small footprint for 300 units) lends itself to lower maintenance costs.  But unlike other high density buildings (like Bay Lake), instead of being on the monorail, it will be on the new gondola transportation system.
> 
> Does it really cost much more (in dues) for a monorail resorts to provide specialty (monorail) transport as opposed to just bus or bus/boat transportation?  Is the gondola system likely to be as costly to maintain as the monorail?  Any ideas or thoughts about dues pricing and relative value at Riviera, over time?


My guess, and it's just that, is that dues will be favorable for the same reason that BLT is favorable.  High points and lower costs for the building.  Taxes will likely be less there as well.  Transportation will likely be around the same as BLT.  That's the issue that I think makes the SSR the most predictable and likely easiest controlled due to the building design and lack of interior hallways.

As I understand it each resort pays it's own proportion of it's transportation based on a formula that is designed to approximate the number of people staying at each resort affected.  Essentially they use the formula to determine the total number of people staying at each resort applicable, take that number and divide it into the total cost of the system in question or the portion assigned to that resort(s).  Then they go back to each resort, or portion of the resort for mixed use properties, and multiply that per person cost by the number of people applicable.  That way each resort pays for it's own transportation or portion thereof.  That will be easier and cleaner for the gondola than it is for the bus system.  Likely Riviera will have buses to MK and Disney Springs but they may not to DHS or EPCOT unless there's an issue with the gondola or it isn't able to keep up with volume.  It is my understanding that for closed in options like the Gondola, the resorts will pay for it in it's entirety just like YC/BC, BWV & BCV along with the Starwood resorts pay for the friendship boats.  

I know there were some issues with BWV & BCV a few years ago about this and some delved deeply into it since on the surface it seems a disproportionate cost was being applies to the DVC resorts and if you do it on a per person basis rather than per room, a higher % will go to the villas than hotels.  I don't recall the numbers assumed for each villa size/type/hotel room but IIRC it was a projection and not an actually density count (occupancy is rooms in use, density is # of people).


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## Commish_DVC (Aug 6, 2018)

You really should read how you sound - a complete know it all, with a singular point of view, but in this instance your argument is false, assumptions are wrong, and conclusions obnoxious


 it's not possible to make a valid argument that VB to simply stay at WDW makes sense financially   -   I bought VB @$39 in 2013 and I would buy more @ $60 if I didn't already have 1,325 points *Statement is WRONG*
That is the reality and is born out by the numbers.  *ALSO INCORRECT*
Owning at VB you have no 11 month window and NO financial incentive to take the additional risk.  - *THIS MAKES ZERO SENSE - HAVE 3 MARATHON WEEKEND RENTALS with VB Points - WRONG*
 Now if one wants to stay at VB part of the time or can find a subsidized contract, the numbers are different.   - *STAYING AT VB HAS ZERO TO DO WITH PURCHACE - YOU ARE BUYING DVC POINTS =  WRONG*
unless one is going to stay at VB part of the time it shouldn't be an emotional decision, else it's an irrational one. -  *WRONG & OBNOXIOUS -  Dean Determines everyone's Financial Situation ???? and state of mind???.*


Be better - Appears you like to own the conversation - OP was seeking information on VB - there are other Owners with VALID points of view that could be helpful, you clearly don't like Vero we get it -


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## Jason245 (Aug 6, 2018)

So it sounds like vb is working out for you... I think I will wait for the bubble on thr bull market to pop and then look for a way to pull trigger.   For me.. a penny not out the door on day 1 is a penny saved.  Then it just becomes a simple economic game of how much is too much for 1 night at a dvc 

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## Dean (Aug 6, 2018)

Commish_DVC said:


> You really should read how you sound - a complete know it all, with a singular point of view, but in this instance your argument is false, assumptions are wrong, and conclusions obnoxious
> 
> 
> it's not possible to make a valid argument that VB to simply stay at WDW makes sense financially   -   I bought VB @$39 in 2013 and I would buy more @ $60 if I didn't already have 1,325 points *Statement is WRONG*
> ...


We'll have to agree to disagree, you are very heavily invested in this emotionally it would appear.  The numbers don't lie, sorry.


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## Dean (Aug 6, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> So it sounds like vb is working out for you... I think I will wait for the bubble on thr bull market to pop and then look for a way to pull trigger.   For me.. a penny not out the door on day 1 is a penny saved.  Then it just becomes a simple economic game of how much is too much for 1 night at a dvc
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


The cheapest long term value is current SSR and likely to remain so assuming WDW is the goal but there are other considerations.  IMO the 7 month window is workable if one is realistic, esp for 1 BR.


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## elaine (Aug 6, 2018)

I always look for an easy exit strategy. Owning onsite WDW gives one a bigger pool of buyers and a very easy exit, likely with a profit (going by the past 10 years). I don't know that I'd count in that for VB or HHI. I own at AKV and HHI and plan to hold HHI until it expires. I could flip AKV in less than 1 week for a tidy profit--and did so with VWL 3 years ago.


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## Dean (Aug 7, 2018)

I went back and pulled the historical dues for SSR & VB.  Had one bought in 2009 at the bottom they could potentially have gotten VB for as low as around $28 per point and SSR for as low as around $48 pp, IIRC.  Had one done so and reimbursed for the 2009 dues, they would have paid $75 per point total during that 10 year span where SSR would have been $50 pp.  The savings of then around $20 pp was completely eroded after 8 years just like in my projections.  

The other thing that's been lost in this, and is likely far more important than the numbers, is that the last few years has been a different animal for the 7 month window than historically.  One pretty much has to count on staying at SSR, OKW or AKV most of the time and some of the time, not being able to get anything.  1 BR are the easiest and studios the most difficult.  IMO this is due to SSR in large part but there are other factors.  In 2009 I would have been comfortable with the 7 month choices, that's not nearly as much so now.  I do think it's still workable for some but it's not what it once was.  And those looking at DVC should know that "off season" for DVC isn't the same as it is for Disney or Orlando in general.  For example, early Dec is the most difficult reservation based on time of year for DVC.  What having a WDW option (SSR cheapest long term, BLT next) in hand is the ability to secure and lock in reservations at 11 months and guarantee the vacation.  They can then try for something else at 7 months out and wait list for more desirable options without worry.  One can do that for VB only if they're OK staying there if they don't get WDW.


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## Jason245 (Aug 7, 2018)

Dean said:


> The cheapest long term value is current SSR and likely to remain so assuming WDW is the goal but there are other considerations.  IMO the 7 month window is workable if one is realistic, esp for 1 BR.


Here is my current math (please correct where I get It wrong). All this info comes from a resale website that seems reputable  

Ssr:
Price per point 105
Mf per point 5.85
Years left 36

Vb:
Price per point 60
Mf per point 8.53
Years left 24

Based on simple math my price per point per year is 8.75 for ssr and 11.03 for Vero (difference of around 2.30 per point per year). 

Price difference is 45 per point

Number of years before cash in my pocket flips (not counting time value of money ). 

45/2.3 = 19.5

So basically I end up worse off for last 4 years of contract for a total extra cost of around 10 bucks a point.  Factor in time value of money and it drops a little lower than that. 



From my simple math it sounds like cheapest option isn't really that much cheaper if you are fine with a 2042 expiration.  

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## Dean (Aug 7, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> Here is my current math (please correct where I get It wrong). All this info comes from a resale website that seems reputable
> 
> Ssr:
> Price per point 105
> ...


Jason, I think the thing you missed, and it's actually the biggest cost is the dues escalation.  Plus you're using a $45 point spread, IMO the proper spread is more in the $30 a point range though the answers are ultimately the same until you get to a much larger spread than $45.  During that same 10 yr span, VB & SSR dues both went up just over 30% total.  When you consider that SSR was still in it's infancy early and that dues tend to go up less because everything is new AND companies tend to squeeze dues when they're in active sales, it may actually make SSR look worse than it was.  Also consider that resorts with remaining years should have value in 2042 (though there's no guarantee) so one could factor in selling in 2042 as well.  Certainly if you factor in the opportunity costs/TVM for the up front savings it does reduces the numbers some if one follows through with investing.  But the point I made above that the 7 month window going forward is not what it used to be is a big one.  Plus as I noted earlier, VB has significant weather risk as well.

VB is a fine resort and for someone who wants to stay there part of the time and at WDW part of the time, it can be a reasonable purchase if they go in with eyes wide open.  But it doesn't save money for WDW and has a LOT of negatives if that's the goal.  Even for someone looking at both, often a smaller VB contract plus a second WDW contract is often best.  I don't see the logic in paying more long term, taking more risk, having an asset worth less and hard to sell if needed and having no 11 month window if WDW is the goal when there's no real possibility of savings.  The last 2-3 years BBS have had an abundance of complaints for people that previously could get X at 7 months out and now they can't.  If there were real savings and one were OK with the risks, different answer.  If I were going to buy VB I'd scour for a subsidized contract even though it'd be more up front.  The info for HHI is essentially the same.


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## Jason245 (Aug 7, 2018)

Dean said:


> Jason, I think the thing you missed, and it's actually the biggest cost is the dues escalation.  Plus you're using a $45 point spread, IMO the proper spread is more in the $30 a point range though the answers are ultimately the same until you get to a much larger spread than $45.  During that same 10 yr span, VB & SSR dues both went up just over 30% total.  When you consider that SSR was still in it's infancy early and that dues tend to go up less because everything is new AND companies tend to squeeze dues when they're in active sales, it may actually make SSR look worse than it was.  Also consider that resorts with remaining years should have value in 2042 (though there's no guarantee) so one could factor in selling in 2042 as well.  Certainly if you factor in the opportunity costs/TVM for the up front savings it does reduces the numbers some if one follows through with investing.  But the point I made above that the 7 month window going forward is not what it used to be is a big one.  Plus as I noted earlier, VB has significant weather risk as well.
> 
> VB is a fine resort and for someone who wants to stay there part of the time and at WDW part of the time, it can be a reasonable purchase if they go in with eyes wide open.  But it doesn't save money for WDW and has a LOT of negatives if that's the goal.  Even for someone looking at both, often a smaller VB contract plus a second WDW contract is often best.  I don't see the logic in paying more long term, taking more risk, having an asset worth less and hard to sell if needed and having no 11 month window if WDW is the goal when there's no real possibility of savings.  The last 2-3 years BBS have had an abundance of complaints for people that previously could get X at 7 months out and now they can't.  If there were real savings and one were OK with the risks, different answer.  If I were going to buy VB I'd scour for a subsidized contract even though it'd be more up front.  The info for HHI is essentially the same.


I don't understand why you keep bringing up significant weather risk. .. I live in south florida and can almost guarantee you that there is insurance on that property so exposure would be limited. . Only real risk would be if they underfunded their reserves which given their structure again makes no sense. . Or am I missing something.

Also.. based on you saying 30 per point spread I assume you mean that ssr can be bought for 90 a point? Cause vb is available at 59 a point. 

As for 7 month window vs 11 month window. . That is a valid risk. 

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## littlestar (Aug 7, 2018)

elaine said:


> I always look for an easy exit strategy. Owning onsite WDW gives one a bigger pool of buyers and a very easy exit, likely with a profit (going by the past 10 years). I don't know that I'd count in that for VB or HHI. I own at AKV and HHI and plan to hold HHI until it expires. I could flip AKV in less than 1 week for a tidy profit--and did so with VWL 3 years ago.



i agree with always thinking about an exit strategy. We plan on giving our Wyndham ownerships back through Ovation within the next few years (tired of the dues) and only keeping our Marriott even platinum Grande Vista and our DVC SSR and BCV points. Five years ago I would have enjoyed stalking the DVC RAT or waitlisting, but with grandkids and soon to be school schedules I want to be able to book what I need ahead of the 7 month crowds.


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## Dean (Aug 7, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> I don't understand why you keep bringing up significant weather risk. .. I live in south florida and can almost guarantee you that there is insurance on that property so exposure would be limited. . Only real risk would be if they underfunded their reserves which given their structure again makes no sense. . Or am I missing something.
> 
> Also.. based on you saying 30 per point spread I assume you mean that ssr can be bought for 90 a point? Cause vb is available at 59 a point.
> 
> ...


I think SSR is the low to mid $90's is possible but even at the $45 a point difference it doesn't make sense from a financial standpoint for WDW.  You'll have to decide how much value to put on the weather issue, for me personally it wouldn't dissuade me if the deal otherwise made sense but here are the issues.  Sure they have insurance but it doesn't cover everything, insurance costs money paid for by dues so if insurance goes up so do the dues, plus if the resort gets wiped out, they could just close up shop, pay all expenses and divide the remaining proceeds and the owners there are out of the club.  IMO the 2 big issues are the lack of an 11 month window and the fact that it's more expensive to own there than almost anywhere else resale.  The 7 month window is not what it used to be.  With this discussion I'm reminded of buying a car where some say how much and some say how much a month.  Or like a car lease where it's more expensive overall long term but less per month.


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## Jason245 (Aug 7, 2018)

Dean said:


> I think SSR is the low to mid $90's is possible but even at the $45 a point difference it doesn't make sense from a financial standpoint for WDW.  You'll have to decide how much value to put on the weather issue, for me personally it wouldn't dissuade me if the deal otherwise made sense but here are the issues.  Sure they have insurance but it doesn't cover everything, insurance costs money paid for by dues so if insurance goes up so do the dues, plus if the resort gets wiped out, they could just close up shop, pay all expenses and divide the remaining proceeds and the owners there are out of the club.  IMO the 2 big issues are the lack of an 11 month window and the fact that it's more expensive to own there than almost anywhere else resale.  The 7 month window is not what it used to be.  With this discussion I'm reminded of buying a car where some say how much and some say how much a month.  Or like a car lease where it's more expensive overall long term but less per month.


I guess from what I see. . The benefit only comes from the back end (20 years) when my cash flow goes negative on the deal.  It just seems a little foolish pay so much money up front to save 3k in 20 years..



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## Dean (Aug 7, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> I guess from what I see. . The benefit only comes from the back end (20 years) when my cash flow goes negative on the deal.  It just seems a little foolish pay so much money up front to save 3k in 20 years..
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


Your choice of course but it's really not going to be 20 years, more like 10 or less before the crossover, about $100 per point over the life of VB not counting the value of the alternate options at that time.  And you'll have something worth less and more difficult to sell.  Let us know how it works out.


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## Panina (Aug 7, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> I guess from what I see. . The benefit only comes from the back end (20 years) when my cash flow goes negative on the deal.  It just seems a little foolish pay so much money up front to save 3k in 20 years..
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


I totally get how you see it.  We have the same back and forth on the hgvc forum on Tug .  

I love DVC and have traded in a few times.  Yes, Saratoga is what is usually available and I love it there.  I am in my 50’s and just did not see the value in buying Disney.  I also looked at VB and HH and they made more sense to me, as I like both areas, but ultimately I purchased neither.

Instead I purchased a 7000 point hgvc at a high demand affiliated on Marco Island, a float winter week for $4500.  Thru the hgvc RCI portal I can trade for two 1 bedrooms dvc units in Saratoga for a total of 6800 points.  Even paying the trade fees and the $190 Disney fee, it is still very cost effective as I didn’t pay much up front.  If at any time I can’t get DVC trades, I have a great week to use, can go to hgvc resorts, trade in interval for high end resorts or easily get rid of and reconsider DVC.


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## Jason245 (Aug 7, 2018)

Panina said:


> I totally get how you see it.  We have the same back and forth on the hgvc forum on Tug .
> 
> I love DVC and have traded in a few times.  Yes, Saratoga is what is usually available and I love it there.  I am in my 50’s and just did not see the value in buying Disney.  I also looked at VB and HH and they made more sense to me, as I like both areas, but ultimately I purchased neither.
> 
> Instead I purchased a 7000 point hgvc at a high demand affiliated on Marco Island, a float winter week for $4500.  Thru the hgvc RCI portal I can trade for two 1 bedrooms dvc units in Saratoga for a total of 6800 points.  Even paying the trade fees and the $190 Disney fee, it is still very cost effective as I didn’t pay much up front.  If at any time I can’t get DVC trades, I have a great week to use, can go to hgvc resorts, trade in interval for high end resorts or easily get rid of and reconsider DVC.


My problem is that dw doesn't want to stay at okw or ssr.. which is where this comes in.. 

Otherwise I would trade my hgvc..

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## rickandcindy23 (Aug 7, 2018)

People get awfully offended when a person disagrees with them.  Holy cow! 

Anyway, I agree with Dean that SSR is a good value right now, but if someone is cash poor on the purchase, I can see owning VB too.  

I am surprised that SSR is up in price by that much.  $100 is crazy.  We paid $60 per point just about five years ago (resale), and since then, resales have been devalued so taht you cannot even get the AP discount.  I don't understand buying Disney at all right now, with that value taken away.  I thought DVC resale values would plummet for that reason.  

I really need to talk the kids into buying some small contracts through Disney.  Maybe VB is the one that will get them the benefit without a huge purchase price PP from Disney direct.


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## Commish_DVC (Aug 7, 2018)

The flawed analysis pushed by Dean continues -   Compare with a fixed level of investment - you can buy more VB points- a VB Purchase is not about staying at Vero Beach and certainly not about booking at SSR (nothing special or difficult in getting an SSR Rez) - it is about accumulating points - points that can be rented or used.   If you have points, you have flexibility - You know what is available at 7 months? the expensive rooms which require more points and at 7 months there is zero difference between $200 points and VB points - I own at Vero Beach - my reservations have been almost exclusively BCV, BWV, Poly Bungalows, BLT - 

DVC Points are a commodity, not an equity like stock - those points can be converted back into cash with a vibrant DVC rental market - $16-$20pp, 

"The numbers don't lie, sorry"  when the analysis is biased and flawed you are apt to reach a false conclusion


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## Jason245 (Aug 7, 2018)

Commish_DVC said:


> The flawed analysis pushed by Dean continues -   Compare with a fixed level of investment - you can buy more VB points- a VB Purchase is not about staying at Vero Beach and certainly not about booking at SSR (nothing special or difficult in getting an SSR Rez) - it is about accumulating points - points that can be rented or used.   If you have points, you have flexibility - You know what is available at 7 months? the expensive rooms which require more points and at 7 months there is zero difference between $200 points and VB points - I own at Vero Beach - my reservations have been almost exclusively BCV, BWV, Poly Bungalows, BLT -
> 
> DVC Points are a commodity, not an equity like stock - those points can be converted back into cash with a vibrant DVC rental market - $16-$20pp,
> 
> "The numbers don't lie, sorry"  when the analysis is biased and flawed you are apt to reach a false conclusion


So you are aligned with my analysis?  Or is there something I am missing? 

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## Dean (Aug 7, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> So you are aligned with my analysis?  Or is there something I am missing?
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


Let me give you an idea where I come from with DVC.  I bought resale back in 1994 and by report was the first non family resale buyer when it was only OKW then simply called the DVC Vacation Club.  I've probably bought and sold approaching 100 timeshare weeks/contracts over the years.  I have been active on DVC BBS back to then starting before there was a true internet on the Prodigy Boards, boy those were brutal.  The majority of my stays are actually exchanges which can be cheaper still and not that much more risky than your current thinking but not for the faint of heart.  I do not automatically have a "Buy where you want to stay mentality" with DVC or otherwise, in fact I routinely tell people to underbuy the resort and give it a try basically taking the "Buy where you don't mind staying" approach.  This basic issue has come up over and over again through the years whether it's off site at VB/HHI/Aulani or SSR trying to stay elsewhere at WDW.  Those here that have known me for a long time on more active DVC boards can attest to these facts.  If there was real savings to be had, I'd be recommending it, there simply isn't and the 7 month approach has been increasingly aggravating for many the last few years now frequently requiring use of the wait list to be successful.  At this point a part of me is wanting you to try it simply to see for yourself what you're up against.


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## littlestar (Aug 7, 2018)

I tried to find some ROFR records for Vero on various bbs sites, but apparently nobody submits info on Vero. I would love to know what has been passing. When I run my numbers, a Vero purchase would have to be *really *cheap for it to make sense. Sounds like CommishDVC bought his Vero points extremely cheap.


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## Dean (Aug 7, 2018)

littlestar said:


> I tried to find some ROFR records for Vero on various bbs sites, but apparently nobody submits info on Vero. I would love to know what has been passing. When I run my numbers, a Vero purchase would have to be *really *cheap for it to make sense. Sounds like CommishDVC bought his Vero points extremely cheap.


$57 & $58 passed in Feb, I could not find any that were taken this calendar year.  SSR down to $91 in the last couple of months passed.  SSR taken under ROFR at $89 & $90.


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## Jason245 (Aug 7, 2018)

Dean said:


> Let me give you an idea where I come from with DVC.  I bought resale back in 1994 and by report was the first non family resale buyer when it was only OKW then simply called the DVC Vacation Club.  I've probably bought and sold approaching 100 timeshare weeks/contracts over the years.  I have been active on DVC BBS back to then starting before there was a true internet on the Prodigy Boards, boy those were brutal.  The majority of my stays are actually exchanges which can be cheaper still and not that much more risky than your current thinking but not for the faint of heart.  I do not automatically have a "Buy where you want to stay mentality" with DVC or otherwise, in fact I routinely tell people to underbuy the resort and give it a try basically taking the "Buy where you don't mind staying" approach.  This basic issue has come up over and over again through the years whether it's off site at VB/HHI/Aulani or SSR trying to stay elsewhere at WDW.  Those here that have known me for a long time on more active DVC boards can attest to these facts.  If there was real savings to be had, I'd be recommending it, there simply isn't and the 7 month approach has been increasingly aggravating for many the last few years now frequently requiring use of the wait list to be successful.  At this point a part of me is wanting you to try it simply to see for yourself what you're up against.


I guess my question is.  When you say cheaper I want to understand how much cheaper.  

My father used to drive half way across town to save 2 cents a gallon on gas, by the time he drove there and home I was pretty sure the gas burnt on the drive ate up any savings. ..and the value of his time made it negative.  

As of now I am not purchasing because the economics of dvc still confuse me (resale prices going up more than inflation as rtu remaining declines ).. 

I am preparing for this bull market to end and to goble up opportunities.. 

That being said, I still need help seeing the math that says that ssr is cheaper than Vero and by how much.  Am I running around town chasing after 2 cents or am is there a meaningful savings  (by meaningful I mean 5k plus through the 24 years left in contract ). 











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## ljmiii (Aug 7, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> My problem is that dw doesn't want to stay at okw or ssr.. which is where this comes in...
> ...Am I running around town chasing after 2 cents?
> 
> As of now I am not purchasing because the economics of dvc still confuse me (resale prices going up more than inflation as rtu remaining declines )..
> ...


The easy answer is that you are running around town chasing after 2 cents. If your DW isn't interested in OKW or SSR then VB is a waste of money. Why would you want to have to tell your wife that even though you spent $XX,000 on DVC you are once again vacationing in a resort she doesn't like? The trends that have led to the dramatic change in 7-month availability - increasing awareness of the importance of 11-month bookings and the hard 7 month window, walking reservations, Aulani/Bungalow/Cabin points, etc. - aren't going away. If you truly want to stay on property, find the best happiness/$$ of the resorts and buy it. Or rent on-property stays until your situation changes.

The economics of DVC are ridiculously simple - demand is substantially outstripping supply. Part of that is because of macro economic trends. Part of that is because WDW has become a worldwide phenomenon. And part of that is because Disney has made staying on-property increasingly more important - the issues of fastpasses, dining reservations, and transportation have all increased the 'enjoyability' spread between on and off property stays.

Lastly, Dean's analysis is highly accurate. What it can't account for is the value to you of net present dollars. If you can realistically predict your income will rise dramatically over the next 20 years as your career progresses then backloading your payments makes complete sense.


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## Panina (Aug 7, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> My problem is that dw doesn't want to stay at okw or ssr.. which is where this comes in..
> 
> Otherwise I would trade my hgvc..
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


Then you will have to put more money up front to make you DW happy.  As okw and ssr are not acceptable I would not buy VB.


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## littlestar (Aug 7, 2018)

The folks over at Mouseowners had a good discussion on a Vero purchase a few months ago:

http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/showthread.php?t=128329&highlight=vero

They talk about the hold time and the buy-in price, too.


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## Dean (Aug 8, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> I guess my question is.  When you say cheaper I want to understand how much cheaper.
> 
> My father used to drive half way across town to save 2 cents a gallon on gas, by the time he drove there and home I was pretty sure the gas burnt on the drive ate up any savings. ..and the value of his time made it negative.
> 
> ...


I'd say you are your father if you do this deal with the stated goals, it's often referred to as "penny wise and pound foolish".  Exchanging isn't normally a good plan for most people even though it's been great for me, that has changed with escalating costs and less choices, just like VB.  And you have to be OK with SSR/OKW doing so but you're saying that you are if you buy VB because at times that will be your only choices or at least that's what you can get often times then use the wait list, which is limiting.  As I noted, I've participated in DVC BBS for years including likely the longest active and largest volume and I don't think I've ever seen anyone ever argue it was a good idea to buy VB JUST for WDW because it was "cheaper" because it really isn't.  

As I see it, the 3 main issues for VB are the 7 month window, long term cost and the 2042 expiration in the order of importance IMO.  I can easily accept the 7 month window or a higher cost if there were an upside in another area and the 2042 expiration doesn't bother but it is a factor in the value.  And that VB will be worth less and more difficult to sell if you needed to isn't a big deterrent to me either because I don't think one should buy planning to sell but it's good to have choices and you'd be boxing yourself in in a number of areas where if anything went wrong in even one area it could pose a problem.  My view of buying DVC is you need to have real savings, be OK with the compromises of a timeshare, feel staying on property is worth paying a premium and be able to afford it.  The latter to me is pay cash.  Owning at OKW, SSR or VB/HH/Aulani for WDW is essentially the same as saying I'm OK with staying at SSR/OKW at least part of the time and only having the 7 mo window is saying that I'm OK with not being able to get anything part of the time and move to another time.  

As for cost, I've already laid out my view but since you asked directly, I'll go back through my thoughts an the math.  For some reason the short term costs is far more important to you than the overall costs.  To me if I'm going to put up with the aggravation of owning at VB (7 month window only), I want other benefits and/or significant savings, I want VB to be both cheaper up front AND long term by a good margin.  Presumably you don't want to stay at VB routinely which could alter the answers in many cases so the only issue is whether it's cheaper, it's not but let me try again to help you see it.  

Initially the buy in is cheaper but the dues are higher.  If you run projections on the dues with inflation you can see at what point you "break even".  If you do that at 3.5% inflation, it's during the 8th year of ownership, if you use different numbers the timing changes.  But it's not that you're kicking the can down the road very far, certainly not 20 years.  Let's say you bought today with 100 points and paid $3500 less than SSR in terms of purchase price.  Normally you'll reimburse for fees if you get the points so if you take that and just look at paying dues the next 2 years, much of the savings is already gone.  In less than 2 years you've paid 3 years of dues which equates to $800 extra even without an inflation factor so you're already down to a savings of only $2700/100 points.  Since this trend will continue you can't even invest the difference for long term investing AND pay the higher fees out of the proceeds because you'll burn through it so quickly.  You can run those numbers for yourself, I've done it at 3.5% inflation on 100 points and dues on VB cost as much as the SSR buy in plus the dues there by 2041, the last real year of ownership for the 2042 resorts.  If you look back historically over the last 8-10 years you get exactly the same answer as the projections, you can look at that yourself as well.  If it wasn't until the very end I still wouldn't suggest it but it'd be more of a consideration and more understandable why someone might risk it.  Those are facts, the question is how you personally weigh them in your decision.  

As you get near the end VB will have no resale value and many others should (no guarantees), I don't think one can make a legitimate case for an extension making sense or adding $$$ value even if it's offered.  Then every time you try to make a reservation at WDW you'll be sweating it, esp if you're not OK with SSR/OKW at your house and you may get nothing which could be even worse.  As I noted, I do believe the 7 month window is workable for some (less so now than in the past) but not if you're not OK with SSR/OKW.  But then SSR may not be a good choice there either and you're going to spend even more money in one way or another for a different resort whether it be around the same or slightly more for AKV with higher dues also or significantly more for BLT with roughly the same dues as SSR.  

There's nothing about this that sounds fun to me and I'm routinely telling people to consider SSR hoping to try everything over time but they need to be OK with SSR to make that workable.  If the reason you're looking at this is simply to get into the system with what you can afford and you couldn't for something else, you really can't afford it anyway and should wait.  If you're looking for the best value, VB isn't cost wise.  While SSR is the best dollar value, it still may not be a good choice for you depending on how set your wife is on avoiding SSR/OKW.   Since you own HGVC I'd liken it to buying at Tuscany expecting to stay at HHI every July.


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## Lisa P (Aug 8, 2018)

From a strictly $-to-$ comparison:





Pro to SSR:  Confidence in making early reservations on-property at WDW.
Pro to SSR:  Relative ease in reselling later at a WDW property with more years left on the contract.
Pro to SSR:  Lower cost overall if planning to keep it for more than 10 years.
Pro to SSR:  In 2042, there are still 12 years left on the contract so it's still worth something.

Pro to VB:  Lower cost upfront if later cash flow is expected to be much better, or you could avoid financing.
Pro to VB:  Lower cost overall if only planning to keep it for fewer than 10 years and don't want to rent.
Pro to VB:  Beachfront home resort advantage is wanted for some or most of the points usage and don't want to rent.

For someone hoping to vacation onsite at WDW for 10-25+ years, it looks like an SSR purchase might be at least $7,000 less per 100 points purchased.  This doesn't count the residual value of the contract if resold before its expiration date in 2054.  Granted, this is a very basic ledger from excel.  Hope it helps someone.


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## ljmiii (Aug 8, 2018)

Lisa P said:


> This doesn't count the residual value of the contract if resold before its expiration date...


As I said before, I fear we're not helping OP at this point...but he does seem to continue to have interest. The $64,000 question for any 2042 contract at this point is "What will the residual value be at (or around) the contract end?"

Direct points are currently $182. Compounded annually at 5% (IMHO a conservative number given Disney's history of price increases) that puts the estimated price for a 50 year contract sold in 2042 at $587/pt. So the question is, "What will Disney do for/to current owners and thus what will the value be?" They could do nothing for existing owners and the value could be $0. But it could easily be $50+/pt or $100+/pt in 2042 dollars if a 10% or 20% discount is offered to current owners. And any discount could only be valid at the owner's resort...or only at new resorts...or across the DVC system...or only to DVC 'members' but not all 'owners'.

So will 300 VB points more valuable than 200 SSR points? Who knows. But I do know that I would be very happy to buy the post-2042 'rights' to any contract for $1 a point (assuming this gave me the to right to buy into extensions/future purchases). Probably any WDW resort for $10/pt for that matter.


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## Dean (Aug 9, 2018)

Lisa I used a $30 spread and 3.5% inflation when I did it a few months ago and the crossover was 8 years.  Obviously every variable will change the numbers slightly but I don't think it possible to use reasonable numbers that give a different ultimate answer.  Certainly the quality of the contract will have an affect as well in terms of loaded vs not but for SSR or AKV it shouldn't be too difficult to find a good contract, for some resorts that can be more of an issue.

ljmiii, I don't think the total points matter because you still have the higher fees no matter how many points unlike say Bluegreen where there is an economy of scale in some situations with more points being cheaper per point.  And it did seem like they had their mind made up until the last round of posts.  And I'm curious as to their underlying motivation to save a relatively small amount up front but pay more long term for something that doesn't sound like it would work for them anyway.


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## Jason245 (Aug 9, 2018)

Lisa P said:


> From a strictly $-to-$ comparison:
> 
> View attachment 7720
> 
> ...


This is exactly what I was looking for. You are my new hero. 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


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## ljmiii (Aug 9, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> This is exactly what I was looking for.


I hate to rain on your parade but the chart is only so useful in that it assumes an inflation rate of 0%. And so while it accounts for a 3.5% annual increase in dues it is showing those payments in today's dollars. A more accurate comparison results if you use your best guesstimate of the spread between DVC dues and inflation for the annual increase.  Or if you think inflation will match DVC dues increases (which has not been true over time) you could just use constant dollars - breakeven at 12 years and over the length of the total contract - SSR is $9,100.00 + 12,937.25 = $22,037.25 and VB is $5,700 + $20,150 = $25,850.00 for a difference of $3,812.75.

But if you are looking at a 8 or 10 or 12 year timeframe the minor differences that result from picking a different inflation number will be dwarfed by potential changes in the value of the contracts. If resale prices double because direct prices have gone through the roof then SSR is $3,400 more 'right'. Or if they plummet by half because there are only 14 or so years left then VB was a $1,700 better buy. Or economic turmoil or Disney direct vs resale policy changes or hurricanes or taxes or any other number of events might affect prices and some of them will affect SSR and VB differently.

Lastly, if you are intent on buying one of SSR or VB and not a more favored resort I would suggest buying VB. That way if something goes wrong - either you find yourself unable to book a resort you want at the dates you need or something else - you can get in and out more inexpensively.


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## Dean (Aug 9, 2018)

ljmiii said:


> I hate to rain on your parade but the chart is only so useful in that it assumes an inflation rate of 0%. And so while it accounts for a 3.5% annual increase in dues it is showing those payments in today's dollars. A more accurate comparison results if you use your best guesstimate of the spread between DVC dues and inflation for the annual increase.  Or if you think inflation will match DVC dues increases (which has not been true over time) you could just use constant dollars - breakeven at 12 years and over the length of the total contract - SSR is $9,100.00 + 12,937.25 = $22,037.25 and VB is $5,700 + $20,150 = $25,850.00 for a difference of $3,812.75.
> 
> But if you are looking at a 8 or 10 or 12 year timeframe the minor differences that result from picking a different inflation number will be dwarfed by potential changes in the value of the contracts. If resale prices double because direct prices have gone through the roof then SSR is $3,400 more 'right'. Or if they plummet by half because there are only 14 or so years left then VB was a $1,700 better buy. Or economic turmoil or Disney direct vs resale policy changes or hurricanes or taxes or any other number of events might affect prices and some of them will affect SSR and VB differently.
> 
> Lastly, if you are intent on buying one of SSR or VB and not a more favored resort I would suggest buying VB. That way if something goes wrong - either you find yourself unable to book a resort you want at the dates you need or something else - you can get in and out more inexpensively.


Don't you think he'll have a more difficult time reselling VB than SSR, I do by far.


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## ljmiii (Aug 9, 2018)

Dean said:


> Don't you think he'll have a more difficult time reselling VB than SSR, I do by far.


I'm sure VB is less liquid than SSR...but I doubt OP would care if it sells in 3 months instead of 3 weeks.

Somewhat off topic...I'm in the process of selling about a third of my BCV points and got grumpy that it took 3 weeks to get a signed contract. Other contracts around the same size and price came up and disappeared in less than a week but my poor Dec use year contract had three nibbles but no bites. So yes...it might be an annoying 3 months ;-). But you never know.


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## Dean (Aug 9, 2018)

ljmiii said:


> I'm sure VB is less liquid than SSR...but I doubt OP would care if it sells in 3 months instead of 3 weeks.
> 
> Somewhat off topic...I'm in the process of selling about a third of my BCV points and got grumpy that it took 3 weeks to get a signed contract. Other contracts around the same size and price came up and disappeared in less than a week but my poor Dec use year contract had three nibbles but no bites. So yes...it WOULD be an annoying 3 months ;-).


IMO it could easily be many months and a larger discount than they got buying in even allotting for time and other variables.


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## Jason245 (Aug 10, 2018)

This chart is a good starting point.  When I make the buy decision I also layer on expected room cost for what I would pay if I didn't own.  I own the vb of hgvc. . And everyone constantly tells me that in 12 years their 5k purchase will save them money compared to what I basically took over.. that being said I use it in such a way that I get about 2x my mf in value from it... am I saving as much as they are and missing out on the cheapest option.. yup.. am I happy with my purchase you bet.. no matter what I will always be way ahead of a retail purchase. . Dvc is a whole different animal however with its own ecosystem and seems to defy most economic principles. . 

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## djohn06 (Aug 11, 2018)

If you feel comfortable renting some of your points, the maintenance fees won't matter.  The simple facts are this.  

1- You can buy twice as many points at VB for (possibly HHI) for half the amount of monorail resorts/ BWV.

2- You can rent your points out for at least twice or 2.5X the amount of the maint fee of VB or HHI by targeting specific high demand weeks outside the Thanksgiving/ Christmas window.

3- By buying twice as many points and renting them out, you will pay zero maint fees.

If you are comfortable doing this, you will have no maint fee concerns.

As far as booking, studios are tough at times, but Jan, late April, May, June and September are low travel months.  At 7 months window you have a good shot at an Epcot or monorail resort.

Feb, March, July and Aug are high point months. You have a good shot at booking a prime studio by booking right at 7 months and using the wait list.  

Most DVCers want Oct - December, so you may be limited with a studio search, but you can certainly find AKL, OKW and SSR rooms at 7-6 months with little issues.  Again, the waitlist process is great if you work it properly.  I have successfully used my HHI or AK points to get monorail or Epcot resorts to cobble together reservation during this time frame.

One bedrooms are the last to go.  If you like these, you will be able to get into a lot of resorts at 7 months.  Late April, May, June and July I have been able to book BLT, BWV, AK and BCV one bedrooms inside of 5 months.  

I've made an average of 3 trips a year for the past 3 years.

Good luck!


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## frank808 (Aug 13, 2018)

Jason245 said:


> This chart is a good starting point.  When I make the buy decision I also layer on expected room cost for what I would pay if I didn't own.  I own the vb of hgvc. . And everyone constantly tells me that in 12 years their 5k purchase will save them money compared to what I basically took over.. that being said I use it in such a way that I get about 2x my mf in value from it... am I saving as much as they are and missing out on the cheapest option.. yup.. am I happy with my purchase you bet.. no matter what I will always be way ahead of a retail purchase. . Dvc is a whole different animal however with its own ecosystem and seems to defy most economic principles. .
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


I bought into bay club over 10 years ago.  Do not regret that decision one bit considering hgvc plat units were about $2-$3 a point for 2br unit in Vegas.  It would take me 30 years of the higher maintenance fee vs lower purchase price of bay club to break even with a Vegas purchase. 

I also own dvc and I would not buy vero to replicate my hgvc bay club purchase.  The break even cost on higher maintenance fee for vero is way to short for me.  

To this day I still hold onto my multiple bay club units as they offer great value in hgvc.  Nowadays, I would not buy bay club because the purchase price of vegas plat units is $1 or less.

Just my thoughts as a hgvc, dvc and mvc owner.

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## MK15 (Aug 13, 2018)

ljmiii said:


> I hate to rain on your parade but the chart is only so useful in that it assumes an inflation rate of 0%. And so while it accounts for a 3.5% annual increase in dues it is showing those payments in today's dollars. A more accurate comparison results if you use your best guesstimate of the spread between DVC dues and inflation for the annual increase.  Or if you think inflation will match DVC dues increases (which has not been true over time) you could just use constant dollars - breakeven at 12 years and over the length of the total contract - SSR is $9,100.00 + 12,937.25 = $22,037.25 and VB is $5,700 + $20,150 = $25,850.00 for a difference of $3,812.75.
> 
> But if you are looking at a 8 or 10 or 12 year timeframe the minor differences that result from picking a different inflation number will be dwarfed by potential changes in the value of the contracts. If resale prices double because direct prices have gone through the roof then SSR is $3,400 more 'right'. Or if they plummet by half because there are only 14 or so years left then VB was a $1,700 better buy. Or economic turmoil or Disney direct vs resale policy changes or hurricanes or taxes or any other number of events might affect prices and some of them will affect SSR and VB differently.
> 
> Lastly, if you are intent on buying one of SSR or VB and not a more favored resort I would suggest buying VB. That way if something goes wrong - either you find yourself unable to book a resort you want at the dates you need or something else - you can get in and out more inexpensively.



So Inflation = 0% is a 10 year breakeven (actually sooner, you're $15 behind in 2027, $392 ahead in 2028).  Constant dollars (or incr. = inflation) is 11 years ($62 ahead, 2029).  Let's look at other inflation scenarios.

If nominal annual increases are 3.5% and long-term inflation averages 2% (net 1.5%), breakeven in 2018 dollars is 10 years ($18 ahead, 2028).  Low inflation (1%) shortens the breakeven (~9.5 years).  High inflation (4%) increases it (~11.25 years).  But all of these scenarios break even because VB MF's are so much higher than SSR.  Even 10% annual inflation (unheard of in the US in the 21st century) still breaks even in 2037.  Since realistically inflation is going to be somewhere in the low single digits, it's realistic to assume somewhere between 10 and 12 years.


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## Lisa P (Aug 15, 2018)

Lisa P said:


> Pro to SSR:  In 2042, there are still 12 years left on the contract so it's still worth something.
> ....
> This doesn't count the residual value of the contract if resold before its expiration date in 2054.





ljmiii said:


> The $64,000 question for any 2042 contract at this point is "What will the residual value be at (or around) the contract end?"


Not suggesting a specific value of a DVC contract near its end nor of an SSR contract when it only has 12 years left on it but just acknowledging that it _will have_ _some value_ in 2042 while the Vero contract will have expired.


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