# [ 2020 ] Predictions of Change



## WalnutBaron (Apr 14, 2020)

One thing I find fascinating about the social impact of COVID-19 is how it has accelerated changes that were already in the works. I will first say that much of what I am sharing here is my own opinion--and I'm sure there will be many who disagree with some or perhaps all of what I am forecasting below:


The shopping mall was a dinosaur. Now it's a dead one. 
The big anchor department stores that were on their last legs won't survive, with perhaps one or two exceptions (Nordstrom, for example, may make it because of their reputation for over-the-top service). We may have seen the last Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Don't get me wrong: the parade will still be there, but it may be the Amazon Thanksgiving Day Parade by next November.
The oil market is a complete mess--and not just because the wheels of industry are frozen or that people are not driving these days. One industry expert said, "The global oil industry is experiencing a shock like no other in its history. The fundamentals are horrifying." 
The collapse of the oil markets could have far-reaching geopolitical impacts, particularly on nations that have an overarching dependence on oil revenue. Think Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Mexico, even Norway. Not only is the entire world getting hit by the worldwide economic shutdown, but the countries that are oil-dependent will have a much, much longer recovery--if they recover at all.
As we know, the markets react to the future as much as they do to the present, and the future for combustion engine-driven automobiles doesn't look good. Electric vehicles will accelerate in grabbing market share, which means Ford may not survive and Tesla is beautifully-positioned.
Distance learning will accelerate and will not only threaten the massive infrastructure of colleges and universities, but will also begin to penetrate the public school system. Parents will learn that home schooling is actually possible and--though the teachers unions will resist--the public school districts will see fewer students returning when students are finally asked to come back to traditional classrooms. Even for parents who are not having a great time with the adjustment of helping their students with school projects at home now, they will be very reluctant to return their kids to school until they're absolutely convinced that it's safe.
Several restaurant chains that were on the bubble before the virus outbreak will not return. _Yahoo Finance_ reported that these chains may not survive to the end of 2020 or will be significantly pared down: Outback Steakhouse, Red Robin, Ruby Tuesday, TGIFriday's, Joe's Crab Shack, O'Charley's, and Marie Callendar's. And thousands of independent restaurants will fail simply because their guest counts--which are zero now--will very, very gradually return once shelter-in-place orders are lifted. And unlike the fast food and casual dining concepts that can adequately handle take-out orders, take out just doesn't work for the white tablecloth concepts, where dining in an elegant setting with the ambience of live music, for example, cannot be duplicated with even a very nice doggy bag.
Long commutes to work may be over, giving rise to the growth of the suburbs and reversing the Millenial trend of living in the center of major cities. People are getting pretty good at working from home, companies are realizing that productive work can happen under such circumstances, and--according to an article in yesterday's _Wall Street Journal_--the traditional office as we know it is a thing of the past. Here's a snippet:  _"__Here’s a scenario: The coronavirus goes on hiatus in late spring, and cases begin to drop. Social distancing eases. But many onetime office workers realize they have little interest in going back to the way things were. The age of the office as we know it is probably over, and the bell can’t be unrung. And there’s really no need to try. The traditional office was already fading into obsolescence. The coronavirus pandemic radically sped up the timeline. __Give people the leeway and trust to schedule their work lives around their personal lives (not the other way around), and they will discover that they tend to be more productive, more driven and happier. Organizations will learn that they benefit tremendously from losing the limitations that come with traditional office settings."_
Related to the item above, I sure wouldn't want to be owning large--or even small--office buildings right now. And the manufacturers of office furniture, office supplies, or those restaurants that cater to captive customers in major office complexes are not going to do well, even when the virus threat has subsided.
Youth sports are in for a big adjustment, especially traveling teams. Why risk your child's health just because he/she is talented athletically? Driving a child across town? Yes, possible. Putting that child on a crowded bus to travel hundreds of miles for a weekend tournament? Uh, no.
Business travel will never be the same. Will it continue once the siege of the virus is lifted? Yes. But the frequency will not. Companies are learning that virtual meetings, while not a replacement for the face-to-face meetings, are about 80% as good for about 0.5% of the cost, both in terms of money and time. This means the big hotel chains are quaking in their boots right now. Their resorts and leisure properties will eventually recover--and will have a huge burst of business when all the millions who've been cooped up for months will be chomping at the bit to take vacations. But those business properties...ouch. There will be many closures of business hotels, especially in large cities.
There will be fewer cruise lines once this is over, but those that survive will eventually thrive. Right now, cruise ships are the poster children for where not to be in the event of a pandemic. But it's amazing how short people's memories are and, though their memories will be longer after COVID-19 passes, the lure of relatively inexpensive travel, unlimited food, and myriad activities onboard will be too tempting to keep cruisers away forever.
Okay, there are some predictions. Challenge me and tell me why I'm wrong (which, in at least some cases, I undoubtedly will be).


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## TravelTime (Apr 14, 2020)

@WalnutBaron This is a very interesting list. Thank you for compiling it and throwing it out there. I am a little more optimistic that over the long run, more will return to normal. I think that many businesses will not survive long enough to see us get back to normal. I think in the short run (next 2 years or so) many people (but not all) will still be very fearful to go out and do many of the things they used to do. It will be a long, slow recovery IMO. I think your list seems appropriate for the short term as well as I could see some predictions happening longer term too. I am not convinced that distance learning for elementary and high school kids will become the norm because parents have to work and many homes do not have internet access or have spotty access. I could see an increase in online classes for college students. I could see many of the retailers you mentioned going out of business permanently. I am not sure that companies will endorse the work-from-home for the majority of their employees, mainly because many companies value collaboration and some jobs can't be done as well from home. I suspect in a couple of years that travel will return to normal, along with business travel. Businesses already use video conferencing a lot, yet they still value in person meetings. I suspect a lot of people will have Zoom PTSD and just the thought of using Zoom will give them flashbacks LOL. I agree with your prediction for the cruise industry. One thing you did not mention is how the health care field will change. I wonder if telemedicine will become more the norm.


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## rboesl (Apr 14, 2020)

That is an interesting list. But, I think it's missing a couple of items:


I think more people have gotten used to grocery shopping online and either having that delivered to the home of ready for pickup. It takes less time overall. 
A result of #1 above is that more people will continue to cook at home. Especially as people continue working from home. This will result in a slower recovery of those restaurants that decided to close rather than do takeout. In fact I expect many of those restaurants that decided to close will remain closed.
A recent trend in construction in my area was to re-purpose shopping malls, or larger empty former factory buildings into basically closed communities of housing and small retail businesses to support that housing. I expect this to continue or increase as a strategy. You may see large scale businesses start to crop up that are providing many, many, small footprint stores to these types of communities.


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## easyrider (Apr 14, 2020)

Mick Jagger, Paul McCarthy, Steven Tyler and other classic rock stars will be getting closer to 80 before concerts start back up in late 2021. 

And then there is the second and third waves of covid - 19 that could be a problemo. 

Really though, things are never the same. I'm use to it. Kind of reminds me of David Bowie Changes.






Bill


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## Patri (Apr 14, 2020)

I think Telemedicine will grow in popularity.
Education on all levels will change, including colleges. Some parents will stick with homeschooling, but the anecdotes I see online is most will be thrilled to send their kids back. During the economic slowdown, kids from private schools may actually return to public because of the cost. Charter schools will recruit students heavily. But again, parents have to be home and involved, which is difficult with fulltime jobs. Traditional schooling is going to change dramatically. It will be interesting to see how.
People have learned how much they don't HAVE to spend or do or go, so our activity habits are not going to bounce back to pre-COVID levels quickly.
Social norms (hugging, shaking hands, etc.) will probably remain at a reduced level.


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## R.J.C. (Apr 14, 2020)

WalnutBaron said:


> One thing I find fascinating about the social impact of COVID-19 is how it has accelerated changes that were already in the works. I will first say that much of what I am sharing here is my own opinion--and I'm sure there will be many who disagree with some or perhaps all of what I am forecasting below:
> 
> 
> The shopping mall was a dinosaur. Now it's a dead one.
> ...



Until an electric vehicle can go 500 miles on a charge and recharge back to full in 5 minutes the gas vehicle will still dominate.


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## CalGalTraveler (Apr 14, 2020)

@WalnutBaron I think you nailed it. Great list.

Colleges and the cost of college should significantly decline if parents don't need to pay for room/board and the students live at home. The "college experience" will be limited to one or two years on campus for lab classes, the wealthy elite, and college sport teams. Remote college student meetups and clubs will emerge in metro areas as the new "college experience."

80% of in-person business conferences are dead. Zoom meetings will dominate. Companies will save on travel costs to survive. 

I believe that public schools will resume for the reasons cited previously. But some AP classes for high school kids may be taught virtually in order to reduce cost and provide access.

Most trades will continue unless robots and drones can do more.

Agree that the parade will not be Macy's


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## WalnutBaron (Apr 14, 2020)

R.J.C. said:


> Until an electric vehicle can go 500 miles on a charge and recharge back to full in 5 minutes the gas vehicle will still dominate.


If you're driving 500 miles one way for a vacation, I agree. But if you're using your car to commute to/from work, there is no hassle with plugging in overnight when you get home. It's nothing more complicated than charging your cell phone overnight.


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## linsj (Apr 14, 2020)

WalnutBaron said:


> If you're driving 500 miles one way for a vacation, I agree. But if you're using your car to commute to/from work, there is no hassle with plugging in overnight when you get home. It's nothing more complicated than charging your cell phone overnight.



This assumes you have a place to plug in. People who live in condos and apartments don't.


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## Sapper (Apr 15, 2020)

@WalnutBaron This is an interesting list. Thank you for taking the time to put it together. I’ll respond to each under your point. 


The shopping mall was a dinosaur. Now it's a dead one. 
—-> I think the malls that were struggling to survive will be repurposed. I like the idea someone presented of small communities with a mix of small business and residential. The malls that have activities tied to them (like an ice skating rink) which draw people for other reasons will trend more upscale / luxury (Rolex vs Timex).

The big anchor department stores that were on their last legs won't survive, with perhaps one or two exceptions (Nordstrom, for example, may make it because of their reputation for over-the-top service). We may have seen the last Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Don't get me wrong: the parade will still be there, but it may be the Amazon Thanksgiving Day Parade by next November.
—-> I think the massive footprint of these stores will be reduced significantly, but the stores will remain. If for no other reason than to be a site for returns, discount sales that would be difficult to do online (one off pair of shoes that were returned), and to attempt to remain relevant in the community. 

The oil market is a complete mess--and not just because the wheels of industry are frozen or that people are not driving these days. One industry expert said, "The global oil industry is experiencing a shock like no other in its history. The fundamentals are horrifying." 
—-> I owned a baby upstream oil company at one point, so my perspective is from there (as opposed to an energy trader). The hydrocarbon energy market is experiencing a triple whammy. 1) Russia vs Saudi race for the bottom dollar to secure long term energy contracts has pushed the supply side price lower. 2) The world has been becoming more energy efficient and moving demand from hydrocarbon sources to electric, reducing demand. 3) COVID Pandemic has temporarily destroyed short term demand. The fundamentals have shifted, I would not call them horrifying... but my keeping a roof over my family’s head is no longer dependent on the price of a barrel of oil. It’s a feast and famine business cycle, always has been. I just see it taking a very long time to recover this time. 

The collapse of the oil markets could have far-reaching geopolitical impacts, particularly on nations that have an overarching dependence on oil revenue. Think Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Mexico, even Norway. Not only is the entire world getting hit by the worldwide economic shutdown, but the countries that are oil-dependent will have a much, much longer recovery--if they recover at all.
—-> Even Canada has a heavy dependence on oil. Venezuela was a hot mess even when oil prices were high, but the government heavily depended on PDVSA $$$ just to maintain a basic functionality.  With that gone, I expect they are facing collapse before countries like Mexico which have diversified there economy. There will be some geopolitical issues between neighboring countries (boarder wars) in a fight for resources, particularly in the Middle East. The UAE has long been the financial center of the Middle East, they might want to think about buying some additional military hardware and making some very public donations to their neighbors.  

As we know, the markets react to the future as much as they do to the present, and the future for combustion engine-driven automobiles doesn't look good. Electric vehicles will accelerate in grabbing market share, which means Ford may not survive and Tesla is beautifully-positioned.
—-> I’m going to disagree on this one. A big driver (pardon the pun) of electric vehicle sales is the cost of fuel. If gasoline drops in price, people will not want to have a heavy upfront capital expense for an electric vehicle. For example (a simple example, excluding interest on initial purchase, insurance, maintenance, taxes, additional equipment (charging station), or opportunity cost) gas car sales price is $50,000 / electric car sales price is $100,000. Electric fuel cost is $100 per month ($1200/yr), gasoline cost is $300 per month ($3600/yr); a fuel expense delta of $2400 per year. It would take more than 20 years to break even. Once you add back in the items I removed to make it a simple example, there is no comparison. Now, all that being said, I also believe this is going to force the electric vehicle manufacturers to compete and reduce their vehicle costs through efficiencies in design, engineering, and manufacturing. As they do this, the cost of hydrocarbons will be increasing and the math will change to the electric vehicles favor... but you are talking a decade out. Short term, Tesla will be hurting. 

Distance learning will accelerate and will not only threaten the massive infrastructure of colleges and universities, but will also begin to penetrate the public school system. Parents will learn that home schooling is actually possible and--though the teachers unions will resist--the public school districts will see fewer students returning when students are finally asked to come back to traditional classrooms. Even for parents who are not having a great time with the adjustment of helping their students with school projects at home now, they will be very reluctant to return their kids to school until they're absolutely convinced that it's safe.
—-> Too many reasons this new distance learning will not hurt K-12 public schools. Cost, infrastructure, educational barriers for the teachers, socialization of children, but most of all... parents have to work and cannot stay home to teach their kids.  The big Ivy League type universities will offer distance learning, but will be fine because the upper income families will spend the $$$$$$ to make sure their kiddos receive what they perceive as the best education possible. The city colleges and non-traditional schools will see the most dramatic changes, and the ones who make inroads now will probably be the winners in their segment. As an aside, I think this will, in the long term, cause further class segregation. You went to Harvard, your resume goes into the executive stack. You went to the city college, your resume goes into the middle management stack. 

Several restaurant chains that were on the bubble before the virus outbreak will not return. _Yahoo Finance_ reported that these chains may not survive to the end of 2020 or will be significantly pared down: Outback Steakhouse, Red Robin, Ruby Tuesday, TGIFriday's, Joe's Crab Shack, O'Charley's, and Marie Callendar's. And thousands of independent restaurants will fail simply because their guest counts--which are zero now--will very, very gradually return once shelter-in-place orders are lifted. And unlike the fast food and casual dining concepts that can adequately handle take-out orders, take out just doesn't work for the white tablecloth concepts, where dining in an elegant setting with the ambience of live music, for example, cannot be duplicated with even a very nice doggy bag.
—-> I think to survive, the stores that were borderline will shift their business model and store footprint to carry out / delivery only. However, stores from the same chain that were top performers will continue as full restaurant with seating. The overall reduction of full service restaurants will drive business to the remaining full service stores. 

Long commutes to work may be over, giving rise to the growth of the suburbs and reversing the Millenial trend of living in the center of major cities. People are getting pretty good at working from home, companies are realizing that productive work can happen under such circumstances, and--according to an article in yesterday's _Wall Street Journal_--the traditional office as we know it is a thing of the past. Here's a snippet:  _"__Here’s a scenario: The coronavirus goes on hiatus in late spring, and cases begin to drop. Social distancing eases. But many onetime office workers realize they have little interest in going back to the way things were. The age of the office as we know it is probably over, and the bell can’t be unrung. And there’s really no need to try. The traditional office was already fading into obsolescence. The coronavirus pandemic radically sped up the timeline. __Give people the leeway and trust to schedule their work lives around their personal lives (not the other way around), and they will discover that they tend to be more productive, more driven and happier. Organizations will learn that they benefit tremendously from losing the limitations that come with traditional office settings."_
—-> I have been a proponent of telecommuting for more than a decade. For the most part, I can only add to your reasons for telecommuting.  However, there are some jobs which cannot telecommute... and if you can telecommute, then possibly a beancounter will decide someone in a cheaper labor market can do your job too... then someone decides the beancounter’s job can be outsourced as well. Haha. 

Related to the item above, I sure wouldn't want to be owning large--or even small--office buildings right now. And the manufacturers of office furniture, office supplies, or those restaurants that cater to captive customers in major office complexes are not going to do well, even when the virus threat has subsided.
—-> Maybe. My guess is that the owners will do something similar to the dead mall scenario above and make it mixed use. Alternatively, if they want to move the building liability from their balance sheet, I can see them condo-ing the building... first floor commercial, second and third office, everything else residential. The former owner becomes the management company and has healthier balance sheets. 

Youth sports are in for a big adjustment, especially traveling teams. Why risk your child's health just because he/she is talented athletically? Driving a child across town? Yes, possible. Putting that child on a crowded bus to travel hundreds of miles for a weekend tournament? Uh, no.
—-> People like to compete... maybe once there is a vaccine and a well vetted medical procedure to test and fight the virus all that will return. 

Business travel will never be the same. Will it continue once the siege of the virus is lifted? Yes. But the frequency will not. Companies are learning that virtual meetings, while not a replacement for the face-to-face meetings, are about 80% as good for about 0.5% of the cost, both in terms of money and time. This means the big hotel chains are quaking in their boots right now. Their resorts and leisure properties will eventually recover--and will have a huge burst of business when all the millions who've been cooped up for months will be chomping at the bit to take vacations. But those business properties...ouch. There will be many closures of business hotels, especially in large cities.
—-> Honestly, I have no idea why this was not already happening. The company I currently work for has virtual meetings all day and night long. The simple ability for separate groups and individuals to effectively communicate and coordinate globally has put us light years ahead of the competition. It allows the company to efficiently implement changes, large and small, in minutes as opposed to months. When I was hired, I was shocked at the pace this company operates. For example, early on I suggested a design change of internal software that would allow better coordination with a third party global network.  At my former company, the meetings to discuss this and analyze cost and outcomes would have taken months... not to mention the software modifications themselves. During this meeting, my new boss (who was in a different part of this state) said that’s a good idea, hold on, brought in other individuals from around the globe to quickly analyze and coordinate this idea. It was fully implemented in less than a week. 

There will be fewer cruise lines once this is over, but those that survive will eventually thrive. Right now, cruise ships are the poster children for where not to be in the event of a pandemic. But it's amazing how short people's memories are and, though their memories will be longer after COVID-19 passes, the lure of relatively inexpensive travel, unlimited food, and myriad activities onboard will be too tempting to keep cruisers away forever.
—-> I tend to think of cruise ships as floating Petri dishes to begin with... so I’m not the target market. My guess is once a vetted vaccine and medical procedure for testing and combating the virus exist, you will see a return of the cruise ship market.  That being said, my guess is it will be a younger target market with shorter memories, and who were less impacted by COVID, that the cruise lines pursue.  

Okay, there are some predictions. Challenge me and tell me why I'm wrong (which, in at least some cases, I undoubtedly will be).

—-> I’m sure I will be incorrect on some of this as well. Time will tell. It will be fun to revisit this thread in three, five, ten years to see how this all plays out.


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## Luvtoride (Apr 15, 2020)

[mention]WalnutBaron [/mention] very interesting topic and well thought out list. I’ll add 1 or 2 other industries/ activities to your list and the very thoughtful comments already made.

-Live Sports and entertainment- I think it will be a long time before 10’s of thousands of people will pack stadiums to watch sports. As a season ticket holder for hockey which I love, I just don’t think putting myself back in that position (I’m 62 years old) is worth the “thrill”. With sports television already so awesome I think more of us will be happy to watch from home. Increased viewership = ad revenue maintained or increased will mean athlete salaries may not be impacted as those revenues already pay most of the bills for major sports. Just the fact that baseball would consider playing its season in empty stadiums in FL and AZ indicates this is a viable alternative.

As for theater and concerts, I think this will be much more impacted! I don’t know what the alternative is (despite the Elton John hosted show with performers playing from their homes was great). I don’t see the numbers of people packing theaters that make these shows and concerts financially viable returning for a long time! The mess that ticket services face with the thousands of cancelled events already will likely put most of them out of business. Like with sports, as much as I enjoyed seeing The Rolling Stones at their farewell tour at Met Life stadium last summer, I just won’t put myself in that position in the future. It’s just not worth it! 

-Delivery and pick up of EVERYTHING! Online ordering and shopping was already becoming the norm through Amazon and e commerce but the way many local businesses have adapted and offered these services has been remarkable. Unfortunately this will have an impact on the overall economy as fewer “in store/ restaurant workers” will be needed but consumers have adapted well to this type of service (vs self serve/ in person) economy. Entrepreneurs have and will continue to find ways to serve their customers remotely and those who figure it out best will thrive.
I don’t miss shopping in supermarkets and I’m happy to have the convenience of online ordering and pick up of groceries, drug store items, coffee (although this was already pretty well established with Dunkin’ Donuts and Starbucks apps). 

It is an interesting subject to give thought to as well as a way to predict the winners and losers in the economy/ stock markets going forward.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Brett (Apr 15, 2020)

WalnutBaron said:


> One thing I find fascinating about the social impact of COVID-19 is how it has accelerated changes that were already in the works. I will first say that much of what I am sharing here is my own opinion--and I'm sure there will be many who disagree with some or perhaps all of what I am forecasting below:
> 
> 
> The shopping mall was a dinosaur. Now it's a dead one.
> ...



I agree with some trends --- businesses will certainly rethink travel and restaurants with big buffets could be in trouble

The annual traditional holiday  _*Amazon *Thanksgiving Day Parade_ ....


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## WalnutBaron (Apr 15, 2020)

Sapper said:


> @WalnutBaron This is an interesting list. Thank you for taking the time to put it together. I’ll respond to each under your point.
> —-> I’m sure I will be incorrect on some of this as well. Time will tell. It will be fun to revisit this thread in three, five, ten years to see how this all plays out.


Fascinating response, Sapper. Thanks for your thoughts on this. You're right: it would be great to come back years from now and look back to see what we got right and what we totally missed--as well as the huge changes wrought by the virus that we didn't even mention here. I love the story about your current employer and their ability to act with light speed to address a new idea and new opportunity. Your example addresses something that I only lightly brushed over in my comment about changes in business travel. We tend to focus on the cost advantages of virtual meetings, but there is also a huge cost savings in _*time. *_Under the old, traditional model, an idea like yours might have prompted a series of meetings, perhaps creating the need for subsequent face-to-face meetings with other team members, meaning several people would fly in to one central location. Not only would this cost tens of thousands in travel costs, but it would be weeks in the making. With your example, the opportunity got addressed at a tiny fraction of the cost of the traditional method--at light speed. Again I will say that Marriott and Hilton and the big airlines are looking at the current and future impacts of the virus and don't like what they see. Airlines' most profitable customers are the business customers, and I just think a meaningful percentage of those customers aren't coming back.


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## WalnutBaron (Apr 15, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> [mention]WalnutBaron [/mention] very interesting topic and well thought out list. I’ll add 1 or 2 other industries/ activities to your list and the very thoughtful comments already made.
> 
> -Live Sports and entertainment- I think it will be a long time before 10’s of thousands of people will pack stadiums to watch sports. As a season ticket holder for hockey which I love, I just don’t think putting myself back in that position (I’m 62 years old) is worth the “thrill”. With sports television already so awesome I think more of us will be happy to watch from home. Increased viewership = ad revenue maintained or increased will mean athlete salaries may not be impacted as those revenues already pay most of the bills for major sports. Just the fact that baseball would consider playing its season in empty stadiums in FL and AZ indicates this is a viable alternative.
> 
> ...


Great additions, @Luvtoride . My brother-in-law lives in Manhattan, is a professional musician, and has made his living playing for Broadway shows and in orchestras at venues like the Lincoln Center, Radio City Music Hall, and Carnegie Hall. He has voiced the same concern to me: how long will it be before people willingly shoehorn themselves into small seats to see a theater or musical production? It's going to take a long time, and a very large number of the production companies and theater companies on Broadway in New York, the West End in London, and many other cities will not only suffer, but won't survive.


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## Big Matt (Apr 15, 2020)

I agree with a lot of your list, but have to weigh in on a couple of items that are related.  I agree with the other poster that until electric cars can go more than 500 miles they will not be widely sold.  The problem is that we don't have the infrastructure to handle the key problem that is: it takes a long time to charge the car battery.  I don't think people are going to buy a gas powered car just to use it for longer trips. With gas prices low, there isn't a real good cost play on electric vehicles.  Second, you say that more people are going to work from home.  I agree with that.  This is going to mean less driving, period.  I could imagine that new types of vehicles may emerge to bop around the neighborhood (maybe safer golf carts), or maybe the use of electric scooters, bikes, etc. makes a big push in the suburbs as they have in urban areas.

I also believe strongly that once a car manufacturer finds a better alternative fuel or can create quickly replaceable batteries (think about a model where you can exchange them like propane tanks), Tesla will be toast.  I'm very concerned about their manufacturing quality.

Thank you for putting so much time into your post.  It was very interesting and thought provoking.


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## CalGalTraveler (Apr 15, 2020)

Sapper said:


> As we know, the markets react to the future as much as they do to the present, and the future for combustion engine-driven automobiles doesn't look good. Electric vehicles will accelerate in grabbing market share, which means Ford may not survive and Tesla is beautifully-positioned.
> —-> I’m going to disagree on this one. A big driver (pardon the pun) of electric vehicle sales is the cost of fuel. If gasoline drops in price, people will not want to have a heavy upfront capital expense for an electric vehicle. For example (a simple example, excluding interest on initial purchase, insurance, maintenance, taxes, additional equipment (charging station), or opportunity cost) gas car sales price is $50,000 / electric car sales price is $100,000. Electric fuel cost is $100 per month ($1200/yr), gasoline cost is $300 per month ($3600/yr); a fuel expense delta of $2400 per year. It would take more than 20 years to break even. Once you add back in the items I removed to make it a simple example, there is no comparison. Now, all that being said, I also believe this is going to force the electric vehicle manufacturers to compete and reduce their vehicle costs through efficiencies in design, engineering, and manufacturing. As they do this, the cost of hydrocarbons will be increasing and the math will change to the electric vehicles favor... but you are talking a decade out. Short term, Tesla will be hurting.
> 
> 
> ...



Great comments @Sapper.  A few thoughts:

1) Electric autos: Your thoughts relative to the price of gas are interesting however your model assumes consumers pay for electricity. My DH gets free charging at work (3 hours fast charge). This is common at many workplaces in Calif. Plus we already have solar panels (sunk cost) installed on our home = free charging. Maintenance on electric is lower so there still is a cost advantage to electric if infrastructure is in place.  The price of the auto will continue to decline as more auto manufacturers have committed to retooling their plants.

2) +1 Scary thought on telecommuting. The next wave may be global outsourcing of professional jobs!

3) +1 Sports will return. Perhaps the hardest part of SIP is that there are no sports to watch. People will still want their kids to get those athletic scholarships too. The 1920s Great Gatsby parties returned after 1918 social pandemic subsided.


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## Sapper (Apr 15, 2020)

WalnutBaron said:


> Fascinating response, Sapper. Thanks for your thoughts on this. You're right: it would be great to come back years from now and look back to see what we got right and what we totally missed--as well as the huge changes wrought by the virus that we didn't even mention here. I love the story about your current employer and their ability to act with light speed to address a new idea and new opportunity. Your example addresses something that I only lightly brushed over in my comment about changes in business travel. We tend to focus on the cost advantages of virtual meetings, but there is also a huge cost savings in _*time. *_Under the old, traditional model, an idea like yours might have prompted a series of meetings, perhaps creating the need for subsequent face-to-face meetings with other team members, meaning several people would fly in to one central location. Not only would this cost tens of thousands in travel costs, but it would be weeks in the making. With your example, the opportunity got addressed almost instantaneously--all done at a tiny fraction of the cost of the traditional method at light speed. Again I will say that Marriott and Hilton and the big airlines are looking at the current and future impacts of the virus and don't like what they see. Airlines' most profitable customers are the business customers, and I just think a meaningful percentage of those customers aren't coming back.



Welcome. It’s an interesting topic, I’m glad you started the thread. 

One downside of being as interconnected as the new company is, there is no down time. Instead of working eight hours a day, I am doing twelve most days. This is because at 8AM local, the folks in Europe are winding down their day and need to discuss things. Then there is the normal “work day” here in the US, Canada, Central and South America. In the evening here, it is morning in Asia and we are communicating with the folks over there. Thank goodness we don’t really have things happening over in India or the Middle East, so there is a slow down in middle of the night and I can sleep. However, my phone makes a “clunk” sound when someone messages me in middle of the night with something they need a response to... irritating my wife and waking up the baby. We recently hired three new folks to deal with the overnight stuff so my team and I can get some sleep.  At the same time, when it is the middle of the day here in the US, and night time elsewhere, I am messaging those folks when I need a response quickly, thus disturbing them in the same way. We have all become much more conscious about prioritizing demands on others and trying not to disturb folks when it is their down time; in a business that moves at such a rapid pace, delaying hours for someone to wake up can cause systemic problems as the delay has a cascade effect delaying other operations down the line.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Apr 15, 2020)

One more trend:

Some manufacturing will return to the U.S. There will be a push to repatriate (or at least move to Mexico/other low cost on same time zone), manufacturing for critical items for health and national security such as PPE and basic industry. The government may need to subsidize cost to create even footing for businesses. Companies will continue to seek robotic solutions instead of hiring.

What is scary is that 3M was put under the defense production act for PPE only to find out that their N95 masks are made in Chinese factories.

If there is a silver lining to Covid-19. This was a wake-up call.


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## Ironwood (Apr 15, 2020)

Pro sports will change significantly if they can't fill stadiums again!


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## VacationForever (Apr 15, 2020)

Ironwood said:


> Pro sports will change significantly if they can't fill stadiums again!


... and maybe they will bring down the ridiculous pay of professional players.


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## Sapper (Apr 15, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Great comments @Sapper.  A few thoughts:
> 
> 1) Electric autos: Your thoughts relative to the price of gas are interesting however your model assumes consumers pay for electricity. My DH gets free charging at work (3 hours fast charge). This is common at many workplaces in Calif. Plus we already have have solar panels (sunk cost) installed on our home = free charging. Maintenance on electric is lower so there still is a cost advantage to electric if infrastructure is in place.  The price of the auto will continue to decline as more auto manufacturers have committed to retooling their plants.
> 
> ...



Thanks. 

1) ok, so make the electric vehicle fuel cost zero and keep the gasoline cost at $3600. Assuming the same $50k delta, the time to break even is still just shy of 14 years. At some point the cost ownership will come to equilibrium and electric vehicles will win, but I think that’s a decade out. 

2) It may be. That being said, with my current company I am seeing my value less on what I initially brought to the table (education, licenses, experience) and more of what I bring to the table on a daily basis and understanding the intricacies of how the company functions that takes a new hire months to get up to speed, and months in this company is a long time. Could they outsource my job?  Yes, absolutely. It would just be uncomfortable for them at this point. 

3) We had also just finished a world war that devastated economies in Europe, allowing for rapid economic expansion in the US.... so folks had money, and a reason to be happy to be alive. A good reason to party. As for the sports stuff, I think humans at their core love competition, sports will return... the viewing experience may be different, but it’ll all come back.


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## PigsDad (Apr 15, 2020)

I'll probably get some flak for this, but I think there is another angle to look at what will come back as before and what will be much slower or never come back:  *age*.  I tend to see that older people are the ones who are afraid of getting back to socializing or being in larger crowds, whereas younger people are less afraid of the disease (and rightfully so).

Activities that are now popular for the older generation will be much slower to make a come back.  Think symphonies, opera, plays, cruises, travel tours, etc.    And I think there will be a shift to younger people attending live sporting events -- there will still be a big demand, more driven by younger people and older people will choose to give up those season tickets.  Youth sports -- since that is more associated with younger families, that will come back in force.

The large gathering activities more popular with the younger generation will recover much quicker:  popular music concerts, theme parks, festivals and fairs, skiing, traveling to beaches and family-friendly locations, etc.  I also think restaurants that market to the younger people will be quick to recover (coffee shops, fast food, health-inspired and new cuisine, etc.).  The fine dining places, along with the more traditional "old people" places such as Denny's, Perkins, and especially any buffet places will find it harder to survive.

Schools -- younger families have to work, so their kids will still need to go to school.  As for colleges, there may be some shift toward online, but that would be more driven by those who need a lower cost option (which will be many more in the next few years as we head into a deep recession), but for those who can afford it, many will want the college experience that simply cannot be reproduced with distance learning.

Kurt


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## CalGalTraveler (Apr 15, 2020)

Sapper said:


> Thanks.
> 
> 1) ok, so make the electric vehicle fuel cost zero and keep the gasoline cost at $3600. Assuming the same $50k delta, the time to break even is still just shy of 14 years. At some point the cost ownership will come to equilibrium and electric vehicles will win, but I think that’s a decade out.



Compared to a Tesla, yes, but that's more like a Mercedes or Porsche which runs in the same range. But even the low end Tesla is $35,000. If you buy an eGolf or Chevy Bolt, they cost $25 - 40k. In fact we could have purchased a new 2019 eGolf for only $12,000 after government rebates.


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## Old Hickory (Apr 15, 2020)

The greedy corporations will find a vaccine and/or medicines for coronaviruses and it will become just another annual virus like the annual flu.   We'll get accustomed to 100,000s of deaths a year like we do today, and our lives will change little.   Oh, we may play this social distancing game for a few more months but then we'll climb back into our daily ho-hum routines and the past few months will be a distance memory.   The flyover states are going to lead the reopening of the U.S. and I see July 4th as the date that we're mostly open.   Play ball!

Today I got my reorder notification for SEC Football Championship tickets.   No way we're going to sit out the SEC football season.


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## WalnutBaron (Apr 15, 2020)

Sapper said:


> Thanks.
> 
> 1) ok, so make the electric vehicle fuel cost zero and keep the gasoline cost at $3600. Assuming the same $50k delta, the time to break even is still just shy of 14 years. At some point the cost ownership will come to equilibrium and electric vehicles will win, but I think that’s a decade out.


@Sapper : Your payback model is based on the assumption that an electric vehicle's initial cost is $100,000. A Tesla Model 3 will set you back between $40-50,000. And a Chevy Volt can be had for well under $40,000.


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## WalnutBaron (Apr 15, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> The greedy corporations will find a vaccine and/or medicines for coronaviruses and it will become just another annual virus like the annual flu.   We'll get accustomed to 100,000s of deaths a year like we do today, and our lives will change little.   Oh, we may play this social distancing game for a few more months but then we'll climb back into our daily ho-hum routines and the past few months will be a distance memory.   The flyover states are going to lead the reopening of the U.S. and I see July 4th as the date that we're mostly open.   Play ball!
> 
> Today I got my reorder notification for SEC Football Championship tickets.   No way we're going to sit out the SEC football season.


There is ample evidence that the college football season will not take place at all in 2020. Discussion now centers on holding the season beginning in February 2021 and concluding sometime in May.


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## dioxide45 (Apr 15, 2020)

I think for electric cars it will still come down to easy access to charging stations. We are in Florida and live in a condo. We have no way to charge an electric vehicle. There is a Tesla Supercharger close by, but I would have to go to it, plug in and wait. It simply isn't feasible. There isn't free charging where I work, which right now is at home. The convenience of being able to charge will be what would drive new electric car sales, though the cost delta will be another. There is no way I can even consider going out and looking to buy an electric car. For those with solar panels on their roof, or access to free or convenient chargers, it simply isn't going to happen. With petroleum prices so low right now, I don't expect much more investment to go in to electric, at least in the near term.


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## Luvtoride (Apr 15, 2020)

Kurt,
Good points on age, but god help those activities which rely on older attendees I.e broadway shows, symphonies, Billy Joel concerts, and most other “art/ culture” performances! If these have to rely on younger audiences, they will be hard pressed to make the economics work (sorry to say for your brother in law @WalnutBaron).
Same for sports and some of the travel options you mentioned unfortunately. 
Us older baby boomers have supported many of these activities/ industries (not exclusively) as we are in more of a position to use disposable income for these “discretionary” things.
Given the state of the world post pandemic I won’t want to be shoved into these close quarters with thousands of others.
Brian 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Luvtoride (Apr 15, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> The greedy corporations will find a vaccine and/or medicines for coronaviruses and it will become just another annual virus like the annual flu. We'll get accustomed to 100,000s of deaths a year like we do today, and our lives will change little. Oh, we may play this social distancing game for a few more months but then we'll climb back into our daily ho-hum routines and the past few months will be a distance memory. The flyover states are going to lead the reopening of the U.S. and I see July 4th as the date that we're mostly open. Play ball!
> 
> Today I got my reorder notification for SEC Football Championship tickets. No way we're going to sit out the SEC football season.



Old Hickory, not sure where you live but I think our attitudes of going “back to normal” in a few months may depend on where you are located.
Living in North Jersey and working in NYC I don’t see a return to old normal anytime soon. 
I know that when we have to go back to our offices in NYC I will Not get on a subway again...better get a good umbrella! 

I hope you and others can go back to enjoying College football and other sports. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## geekette (Apr 15, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> Old Hickory, not sure where you live but I think our attitudes of going “back to normal” in a few months may depend on where you are located.


Agree.  I guess I am in unimportant "fly over state" so we are still climbing the hill to peak.   We have cities that have cancelled 4th of July celebrations.   Maybe a gov will want to open, but many of the citizens will not comply.  In a choice between my money or my life, I choose my life.  
I don't see college sports happening.   We can't even see a timeline to normal because we haven't made it to full-on whacky yet.


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## Old Hickory (Apr 15, 2020)

Brian,

I agree.   And, I am an optimist.   Middle America will want to get back to normal long before the major population centers.


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## Brett (Apr 15, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> Brian,
> 
> I agree.   And, I am an optimist.   Middle America will want to get back to normal long before the major population centers.



no problem being an optimist - I'm also hoping there will be college sports this fall


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## easyrider (Apr 15, 2020)

The USA doesn't have enough lithium to actually make a car battery for mass produced cars. The world reserve of lithium is finite meaning it would eventually run out. Even though the lithium battery makes a clean running car the process to obtain the lithium is anything but green. I think that hydrogen will come out on top of the clean fuel game eventually. 

Bill


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## Bailey#1 (Apr 15, 2020)

Being from a rural area, I see a more repaid decline of small family farms.


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## chapjim (Apr 15, 2020)

R.J.C. said:


> Until an electric vehicle can go 500 miles on a charge and recharge back to full in 5 minutes the gas vehicle will still dominate.



You mean, coal-powered electric vehicle?


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## Brett (Apr 15, 2020)

easyrider said:


> The USA doesn't have enough lithium to actually make a car battery for mass produced cars. The world reserve of lithium is finite meaning it would eventually run out. Even though the lithium battery makes a clean running car the process to obtain the lithium is anything but green. I think that hydrogen will come out on top of the clean fuel game eventually.
> 
> Bill



Lithium is an element.   All elements are "finite" !
plenty of lithium  ... but yes, it can "run out" after a few hundred years

https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...ntain-the-Growth-of-the-Lithium-Ion-Battery-M


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## CalGalTraveler (Apr 15, 2020)

Prospects are not good for college football this fall. Below is an piece discussing how in-person classes may not resume until Jan 2021 and many freshman are considering a gap year. Not to mention, many unemployed parents may not have the funds to pay for tuition. On the flip side, parents of existing students can save on room and board.









						For some colleges, missing the fall semester may be just the tip of the iceberg
					

When the world of higher education emerges from the Covid-19 crisis, it won't look the same as it did when the academic year began last September, says David M. Perry.




					www.cnn.com


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## R.J.C. (Apr 15, 2020)

WalnutBaron said:


> If you're driving 500 miles one way for a vacation, I agree. But if you're using your car to commute to/from work, there is no hassle with plugging in overnight when you get home. It's nothing more complicated than charging your cell phone overnight.



I fully understand how to charge a car and did not state anything about the difficulty (or lack thereof) in charging a car. But charging takes overnight and yes I, like many people, take long distance vacations. I can't afford to drive 200 miles and then stop for a night in a hotel to recharge.


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## R.J.C. (Apr 15, 2020)

chapjim said:


> You mean, coal-powered electric vehicle?



Not sure what you mean with this statement. Electricity is created in many ways, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, water, etc.... What is your point?


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## rboesl (Apr 15, 2020)

What an amazing thread and breadth of responses. There are a few things I'd like to add/respond to:


Having a different type of vehicle to run local errands. To some degree it already exists. There are now plug-in hybrids (which I recently leased). These give you enough pure battery power for a short distance then switch over to pure hybrid when the short distance battery runs out. Recharging happens overnight without specialized 220v outlets. I've found this to be awesome. It's reduced my gas consumption by 60% and an overnight charge costs less than a $1.
Telecommuting and business meetings online has an extension that larger multi-national corporations will leverage. This can lead to design and development projects that span the globe. Projects that continue from timezone to timezone allowing for 24 hr progress rather than shutting down when the 8-10 hr day ends. The company I used to work for was already trying to implement something like this. More will realize that with the right coordination it can work. The end result would be quicker to market products and greater creativity in their development.
Certain portions of our government will change. In particular, product acquisition for those products that are common across localities. Our current crisis pointed this out and needs to change. It should result in a federal acquisition department that other local governments will purchase from. This may also extend to common services purchased as well.
Manufacturing. Many different types needs to return to the US with government incentives to make it happen. There was too much product during this crisis that wasn't manufactured here that we were dependent upon. The end result could be jobs for all those people who will need them as the economy changes as a result of this crisis.


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## b2bailey (Apr 15, 2020)

Sapper said:


> Welcome. It’s an interesting topic, I’m glad you started the thread.
> 
> One downside of being as interconnected as the new company is, there is no down time. Instead of working eight hours a day, I am doing twelve most days. This is because at 8AM local, the folks in Europe are winding down their day and need to discuss things. Then there is the normal “work day” here in the US, Canada, Central and South America. In the evening here, it is morning in Asia and we are communicating with the folks over there. Thank goodness we don’t really have things happening over in India or the Middle East, so there is a slow down in middle of the night and I can sleep. However, my phone makes a “clunk” sound when someone messages me in middle of the night with something they need a response to... irritating my wife and waking up the baby. We recently hired three new folks to deal with the overnight stuff so my team and I can get some sleep.  At the same time, when it is the middle of the day here in the US, and night time elsewhere, I am messaging those folks when I need a response quickly, thus disturbing them in the same way. We have all become much more conscious about prioritizing demands on others and trying not to disturb folks when it is their down time; in a business that moves at such a rapid pace, delaying hours for someone to wake up can cause systemic problems as the delay has a cascade effect delaying other operations down the line.


There is a setting for your phone not to make that noise unless it's a preselected number.


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## b2bailey (Apr 15, 2020)

Luvtoride said:


> Kurt,
> Good points on age, but god help those activities which rely on older attendees I.e broadway shows, symphonies, Billy Joel concerts, and most other “art/ culture” performances! If these have to rely on younger audiences, they will be hard pressed to make the economics work (sorry to say for your brother in law @WalnutBaron).
> Same for sports and some of the travel options you mentioned unfortunately.
> Us older baby boomers have supported many of these activities/ industries (not exclusively) as we are in more of a position to use disposable income for these “discretionary” things.
> ...


Reminds me of something I read today about lay-offs at Harley Davidson. Can't imagine that is a top of list item for very many.


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## Sapper (Apr 15, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Compared to a Tesla, yes, but that's more like a Mercedes or Porsche which runs in the same range. But even the low end Tesla is $35,000. If you buy an eGolf or Chevy Bolt, they cost $25 - 40k. In fact we could have purchased a new 2019 eGolf for only $12,000 after government rebates.





WalnutBaron said:


> @Sapper : Your payback model is based on the assumption that an electric vehicle's initial cost is $100,000. A Tesla Model 3 will set you back between $40-50,000. And a Chevy Volt can be had for well under $40,000.



Yes, this is true. I was basing that on what I remembered when I was looking at the vehicles. Let’s do as close to an apple to apple comparison as we can. 
Electric fuel, hydrocarbon fuel / delta:
Nissan Leaf $32k, Ford Focus $19k / $13k
eGolf $32k, gas Golf $23k / $9k
Chevy Bolt $37k, Chevy Spark $13k / $24k
Tesla model X $85k, BMW X5 $59k / $26k
Tesla model 3 $40k, Honda Accord $24k / $16k
Let’s say the current average delta is $17.6k, back to the fuel cost difference of $2400/yr = 7.3 years to BE
That’s a heck of a lot better than 20+ years, but it’s not there yet... at least for me.


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## Sapper (Apr 15, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> There is a setting for your phone not to make that noise unless it's a preselected number.


It’s an internal company texting application. If my phone “clunks” in the middle of the night, there is a problem I have to address promptly.  I do appreciate you letting me know though as I hate it when it happens.


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## TravelTime (Apr 16, 2020)

Not so sure about the work from home options and its effect on Predictions of Change.

---------

*The Lucky Stay-at-Home 37%*
Most Americans do not have the luxury of working from home.

....A newly released study called “How Many Jobs Can Be Done at Home?” reckons that 37% of all U.S. jobs can plausibly be done at home, meaning that nearly two-thirds cannot. The study’s authors, from the University of Chicago’s Becker-Friedman Institute, add that their 37% estimate is at the “upper bound of what might be feasible.”

Along with other studies, this one also finds that those in jobs that can be done from home “typically earn more.” By their calculations, for example, 37% of jobs that can be done at home account for 46% of all wages. There are also variations across cities and industries, with San Francisco and Washington having more jobs that can be done at home than, say, Fort Myers and Grand Rapids, and someone in finance more likely to be able to work from home than a construction worker.....









						Opinion | The Lucky Stay-at-Home 37%
					

Most Americans do not have the luxury of working from home.




					www.wsj.com


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## WalnutBaron (Apr 16, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Not so sure about the work from home options and its effect on Predictions of Change.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting article. Thanks for including it. I guess my interpretation, however, is different from yours. We know it won't come to that, but if even 10%--let alone 37%--of the workforce do not return to their offices when this is all over, that will have a huge impact on various industries. It will negatively affect the auto, oil, and commercial real estate industries and it will positively impact companies like Zoom and Microsoft. I never suggested that all those who are at home now will stay there--far from it. But I do believe there will be a measurable and meaningful change in work patterns, and that those changes will ripple throughout our economy. As I said in another post, I believe we will look back 20 years from now--even 50 years from now--and see a very bright line of demarcation between what life was like in February 2020 and prior compared to what was like in March 2020 and afterward.


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## dioxide45 (Apr 16, 2020)

I think that the work from home movement has been ongoing and we would have continued to see it getting more prevalent in the future. So these industries were likely to suffer in the long run. The whole COVID though has accelerated it and many may never go back in to the office. Or go back only to find out they are being asked to work from home full time.

Before this all started, I worked in an office three days a week and one from home. My team works out of many different sites across the country. So in reality, there was never a need to work in the office at all. I had two workers on my team in the same office, but in most cases their work from home days were different than mine and I rarely saw them.


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## WalnutBaron (Apr 16, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> I think that the work from home movement has been ongoing and we would have continued to see it getting more prevalent in the future. So these industries were likely to suffer in the long run. The whole COVID though has accelerated it and many may never go back in to the office. Or go back only to find out they are being asked to work from home full time.
> 
> Before this all started, I worked in an office three days a week and one from home. My team works out of many different sites across the country. So in reality, there was never a need to work in the office at all. I had two workers on my team in the same office, but in most cases their work from home days were different than mine and I rarely saw them.


Interesting anecdote and a great example of what I'm projecting. As you will note from my original post, I did not suggest that COVID-19 has started the trend toward working from home, but I do most certainly believe it will accelerate that trend.


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## PigsDad (Apr 16, 2020)

Working from home movements is nothing new, and depending on the company, has gone through many changes.  

I work for a very large IT / computing equipment manufacturer.  Since around the turn of the century, we have had a few pendulum swings on the work from home front.  We've gone from actively encouraging many people to work from home by eliminating permanent office space and going to temporary "mobile" work spaces when you are in the office, to full bore "everyone must be in the office every day", to the point where managers are given spreadsheets of their employees' daily badge swipes of the building's doors.  Later we were back to work at home if you want, and of course now everyone is forced to work at home.

Global work teams is the norm in many large corporations.  My immediate team includes just one person in the same office building as me, members in Seattle, Houston, Atlanta, New England, Florida, Ireland, The Netherlands, and India.  My manager is in Florida.  The last time I worked on a team that was even 80% co-located was probably in the late 90's.

I realize remote working is new for many people, but there are many of us who have been doing this for 20+ years and it works just fine.  Personally, I prefer to come into the office, but I really don't see any difference in my productivity when working from home.

Kurt


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## TravelTime (Apr 16, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Working from home movements is nothing new, and depending on the company, has gone through many changes.
> 
> I work for a very large IT / computing equipment manufacturer.  Since around the turn of the century, we have had a few pendulum swings on the work from home front.  We've gone from actively encouraging many people to work from home by eliminating permanent office space and going to temporary "mobile" work spaces when you are in the office, to full bore "everyone must be in the office every day", to the point where managers are given spreadsheets of their employees' daily badge swipes of the building's doors.  Later we were back to work at home if you want, and of course now everyone is forced to work at home.
> 
> ...



I agree with this. I remember about 20 years ago when the work from home trend was big and everyone wanted to work from home. I have seen the pendulum swing back and forth over the past 20 years among major employers in Silicon Valley (where I have been living). Lately it seemed like working in the office was more common. Many employees like going into the office some or most days, even when they are allowed to work from home. My DH's company Apple was very against working from home but they had given him permission to work from home two days a week so we could live in our country home for long weekends. I wonder if Apple will shift its policy. It just built a huge spaceship office complex and has so much office space. I have a friend who works in IT at Wells Fargo and she said everyone was working from home and they were trying to get people to come into the office again. Now they will probably allow them to continue working from home. I have another friend at Abbott who wanted to work from home but they wanted her to be in the office with the project teams. In fact, she has to drive 50 miles at least once a week to visit one of her teams. As I think through my friends who work in corporate America, they all go into the office (except my Wells Fargo friend). Most of my clients work in the office, although some have sometimes worked from home for convenience. However, I can definitely see in some industries and some jobs, where most of the work is done on the road anyway, that work from home makes sense and that Covid might allow some companies to downsize office space.


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## VacationForever (Apr 16, 2020)

I still remember then Yahoo-CEO Marissa Mayer took back work from home "privilege" after analyzing data that employees were not connecting into VPN when they were so-called telecommuting.


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## TravelTime (Apr 16, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I still remember then Yahoo-CEO Marissa Mayer took back work from home "privilege" after analyzing data that employees were not connecting into VPN when they were so-called telecommuting.



Yes I remember that too. It was very controversial at the time.


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## TravelTime (Apr 16, 2020)

I just heard first hand from people I know at 3 major high tech companies. The plan for these companies is to re-open slowly and in waves. Tim Cook had an all hands meeting today and they did not say what the exact plan is but it will be a slow reopening. On CNN, Zuckerberg and his wife said that is their plan too. Employees will work at home until their wave is called back. I imagine that this will be the approach in Silicon Valley in general since companies here tend to follow the leaders. I wonder what the approach will be nationwide. Will this impact work at home long term? I guess it depends on how successful this Covid experiment is.


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## VacationForever (Apr 16, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Yes I remember that too. It was very controversial at the time.


I actually chuckled because we used to work at another High Tech firm and everyone was allowed to telecommute one day a week.  Some of the more senior staff even bragged about how they would spend the day cleaning house and shopping on telecommute day.  We all knew it was true that many employees abused telecommuting but no one wanted to talk about it and Marissa Mayer had the guts to call it out and made a tough decision.


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## VacationForever (Apr 16, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I just heard first hand from people I know at 3 major high tech companies. The plan for these companies is to re-open slowly and in waves. Tim Cook had an all hands meeting today and they did not say what the exact plan is but it will be a slow reopening. On CNN, Zuckerberg and his wife said that is their plan too. Employees will work at home until their wave is called back. I imagine that this will be the approach in Silicon Valley in general since companies here tend to follow the leaders. I wonder what the approach will be nationwide. Will this impact work at home long term? I guess it depends on how successful this Covid experiment is.


It makes alot of sense.


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## rboesl (Apr 16, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I agree with this. I remember about 20 years ago when the work from home trend was big and everyone wanted to work from home. I have seen the pendulum swing back and forth over the past 20 years among major employers in Silicon Valley (where I have been living). Lately it seemed like working in the office was more common. Many employees like going into the office some or most days, even when they are allowed to work from home. My DH's company Apple was very against working from home but they had given him permission to work from home two days a week so we could live in our country home for long weekends. I wonder if Apple will shift its policy. *It just built a huge spaceship office complex and has so much office space. *I have a friend who works in IT at Wells Fargo and she said everyone was working from home and they were trying to get people to come into the office again. Now they will probably allow them to continue working from home. I have another friend at Abbott who wanted to work from home but they wanted her to be in the office with the project teams. In fact, she has to drive 50 miles at least once a week to visit one of her teams. As I think through my friends who work in corporate America, they all go into the office (except my Wells Fargo friend). Most of my clients work in the office, although some have sometimes worked from home for convenience. However, I can definitely see in some industries and some jobs, where most of the work is done on the road anyway, that work from home makes sense and that Covid might allow some companies to downsize office space.



The above hi-lited section just answered the reason why companies ask people to work in the office. It's the investment in that office space. The cost needs to be justified and proven valuable.


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## TravelTime (Apr 16, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I actually chuckled because we used to work at another High Tech firm and everyone was allowed to telecommute one day a week.  Some of the more senior staff even bragged about how they would spend the day cleaning house and shopping on telecommute day.  We all knew it was true that many employees abused telecommuting but no one wanted to talk about it and Marissa Mayer had the guts to call it out and made a tough decision.



Yes, this is well known. I know from my friends who work occasionally work from home sometimes that they think of it as a flex day. They will work but they take care of errands too. I will say that my DH is being very disciplined and he is in his home office from 7:30 or 8 am until 5 pm daily and only comes out for lunch or to walk the dogs. He had already been working from home on Fridays and Mondays so he was used to being disciplined since it started as an experiment for him when he was the only one in his organization allowed to work from home. He had to show it worked to keep the privilege.


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## TravelTime (Apr 16, 2020)

rboesl said:


> The above hi-lited section just answered the reason why companies ask people to work in the office. It's the investment in that office space. The cost needs to be justified and proven valuable.



Yes, that is what I think too. After investing multi millions in customized office space, they want/need employees to use it. But I do not think that is the only reason.


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## DannyTS (Apr 16, 2020)

I understand why people think that a lot of things will change overnight but let's all remember why they used to be the way they were: because they worked and because people enjoyed them.

1) the business travel will not go back as long as the economy is declining but it will pick up after that. Many times the meetings do not have just the purpose of exchanging information; they are organized with a sale in mind. Even if a sale is not the proper word, convincing is still very important. No matter how much people will video conference the human contact will still be very important.

2) motivation and interaction are very important and I do not see how the online schools will be the norm at any level. Online education has a mediocre reputation at best for a reason. It is not about the curriculum (they can all have access to more or less the same information), they just do not have what it takes to prepare the best students.

3) the malls and the shopping centers are  places where people like to hang out even when the online shopping is more convenient and cheaper most of the time. I have been surprised in the last few years that the mall parking lots were becoming busier and busier. 

4) the same about the restaurants. While I agree that the margins are generally slow and some if not many will not survive, others will take their place, as always.

5) telemedicine would be more popular but most doctors will agree that seeing the patient contributes a lot to the information gathering process. I am also wondering if people are more inclined to follow the doctor's orders on the phone or in person.


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## WalnutBaron (Apr 17, 2020)

Thanks for your comments. See my comments/rebuttals below:



DannyTS said:


> I understand why people think that a lot of things will change overnight but let's all remember why they used to be the way they were: because they worked and because people enjoyed them.
> 
> 1) the business travel will not go back as long as the economy is declining but it will pick up after that. Many times the meetings do not have just the purpose of exchanging information; they are organized with a sale in mind. Even if a sale is not the proper word, convincing is still very important. No matter how much people will video conference the human contact will still be very important.
> 
> ...


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## TravelTime (Apr 18, 2020)

I forgot to mention a really big change I expect: big government. I think after this crisis is over, Americans will re-think the social safety net and things like universal health care. I am a libertarian so big government is not my thing but I suspect the American appetite for socialist like programs will increase. Basically, the current multi-trillion dollar stimulus programs amount to America rushing a not very well thought out social safety net, with bipartisan support. If we can get the money “out of the air” for coronavirus, then why can’t we get the money for universal health care?


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## Big Matt (Apr 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I forgot to mention a really big change I expect: big government. I think after this crisis is over, Americans will re-think the social safety net and things like universal health care. I am a libertarian so big government is not my thing but I suspect the American appetite for socialist like programs will increase. Basically, the current multi-trillion dollar stimulus programs amount to America rushing a not very well thought out social safety net, with bipartisan support. If we can get the money “out of the air” for coronavirus, then why can’t we get the money for universal health care?


People don't want universal health care.  People didn't want Obama Care.  The one thing that makes me question my answer is the fact that we are becoming a gig economy very rapidly.  This group can't get healthcare through a company, but make good money.  We are either going to lean one way or another.  

I'm a libertarian also.


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## TravelTime (Apr 18, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> People don't want universal health care.  People didn't want Obama Care.  The one thing that makes me question my answer is the fact that we are becoming a gig economy very rapidly.  This group can't get healthcare through a company, but make good money.  We are either going to lean one way or another.
> 
> I'm a libertarian also.



I was just saying that after the crisis, people may have different feelings. I know people before did not want universal health care or ObamaCare. Frankly, I do not want it either. I like our private health care.


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## TravelTime (Apr 18, 2020)

Another possible trend to go along with working from home. It seems some companies are installing software to track productivity.









						You’re Working From Home, but Your Company Is Still Watching You
					

With millions working at home, more companies want to know how employees are spending their time.




					www.wsj.com


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## Brett (Apr 19, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I forgot to mention a really big change I expect: big government. I think after this crisis is over, Americans will re-think the social safety net and things like universal health care. I am a libertarian so big government is not my thing but I suspect the American appetite for socialist like programs will increase. Basically, the current multi-trillion dollar stimulus programs amount to America rushing a not very well thought out social safety net, with bipartisan support. If we can get the money “out of the air” for coronavirus, then why can’t we get the money for universal health care?



... why??? 
maybe because the coronavirus money is not coming "out of the air"   ! 

*https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/04/18/record-government-corporate-debt-risk-tipping-point-after-pandemic-passes/*


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## Sapper (Apr 19, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I forgot to mention a really big change I expect: big government. I think after this crisis is over, Americans will re-think the social safety net and things like universal health care. I am a libertarian so big government is not my thing but I suspect the American appetite for socialist like programs will increase. Basically, the current multi-trillion dollar stimulus programs amount to America rushing a not very well thought out social safety net, with bipartisan support. If we can get the money “out of the air” for coronavirus, then why can’t we get the money for universal health care?



Interesting you mention this. My neighbor, who grew up in Greece and lived in Paris prior to moving to the US, and I had a big discussion the other day on this topic. His standpoint is that this situation will push the American people to demand the government take a larger roll in multiple segments, ie Socialism... though he does not like that word, a rose by another name is still a rose. My standpoint is that because of the failures in government, both individuals and corporations will take on a more independent path in the future because this proves they can no longer trust the government systems.  It was an interesting discussion, neither viewpoint changed, and who knows, we may both be right... some kind of thing where the government takes on healthcare and corporations onshore critical parts of their business.


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## TravelTime (Apr 19, 2020)

Brett said:


> ... why???
> maybe because the coronavirus money is not coming "out of the air"   !
> 
> *https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/04/18/record-government-corporate-debt-risk-tipping-point-after-pandemic-passes/*



“Coming out of the air” was in quotes because I know this is not literally true. It just amazes me that the government has said we do not have money for certain things and then the money is found or borrowed or printed.


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## Fredflintstone (Apr 19, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> “Coming out of the air” was in quotes because I know this is not literally true. It just amazes me that the government has said we do not have money for certain things and then the money is found or borrowed or printed.



Actually, money does come out of thin air. This is because the FED can open up the presses anytime and just add zeroes. Here’s a good YouTube explanation on how debt just magically appears. Isn’t it funny that people fight over something that can just be printed or numbered up?








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## TravelTime (Apr 19, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Actually, money does come out of thin air. This is because the FED can open up the presses anytime and just add zeroes. Here’s a good YouTube explanation on how debt just magically appears. Isn’t it funny that people fight over something that can just be printed or numbered up?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks for posting the video. Very interesting.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Apr 19, 2020)

All I can speak of is my own personal experience.

I like ordering and later picking up groceries. I expect to do it for most groceries after the lockdown is over.  I will still go in for frozen foods and fresh foods.

Electric vs. gas cars. I don't expect to own an electric car in the reasonable future. Too limiting, and I don't have a place for a second car, don't want to pay for more insurance, and hail storms roll though here regularly. No room in the garage for a 3rd car.

I don't know about the work-from-home vs. office situation. I expect I have now retired, though I might take another contract if things worked out right. 

I will pay for my timeshares, but will I used them? Time will tell. . .


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## Luvtoride (Apr 20, 2020)

This article from Sunday’s NY Times is not so much a prediction of future effects as it is a road map of the coming year or two to emerge from this crises. A long read but very interesting nonetheless (like the fastest any mass vaccine has been produced was 4 years).

The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead








						The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead (Published 2020)
					

There will be no quick return to our previous lives, according to nearly two dozen experts. But there is hope for managing the scourge now and in the long term.




					www.nytimes.com
				





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## Brett (Apr 21, 2020)

when movie theaters and indoor concerts reopen -  buffer zones


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## Big Matt (Apr 21, 2020)

Brett, I think it's going to be more like airplanes.  Theaters can be fully cleaned between shows so that should help.  Tickets are going to be limited enough that people can spread out.  Restaurants will follow the same pattern.  

These are the little things that will last for a really long time if a vaccine isn't created.


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## Brett (Apr 21, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> Brett, I think it's going to be more like airplanes.  Theaters can be fully cleaned between shows so that should help.  Tickets are going to be limited enough that people can spread out.  Restaurants will follow the same pattern.
> 
> These are the little things that will last for a really long time if a vaccine isn't created.



yes 
but I see potential marketing in "buffer zones"


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## VacationForever (Apr 21, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Actually, money does come out of thin air. This is because the FED can open up the presses anytime and just add zeroes. Here’s a good YouTube explanation on how debt just magically appears. Isn’t it funny that people fight over something that can just be printed or numbered up?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Good luck to USD as there is no faster way to devalue currency than printing notes.


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## PigsDad (Apr 21, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Good luck to USD as there is no faster way to devalue currency than printing notes.


It's all relative.  If other countries are doing the same thing, it is less likely to devalue the USD against other currencies.

Kurt


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## VacationForever (Apr 21, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> It's all relative.  If other countries are doing the same thing, it is less likely to devalue the USD against other currencies.
> 
> Kurt


But if we are talking about printing notes to cancel out our deficit then it is definitely going to be significant devaluation of USD.  Most first world countries don't run deficits like we do.


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## TravelTime (Apr 21, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Good luck to USD as there is no faster way to devalue currency than printing notes.



Yes, that is what I thought so I was wondering why the USA would just start printing money. I have not researched the current situation so I am just going off my previous education in economics.


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## Brett (Apr 21, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Yes, that is what I thought so I was wondering why the USA would just start printing money. I have not researched the current situation so I am just going off my previous education in economics.



yes -  government printing money is bad 
government decreasing debt is good 
government spending money to save the economy .........................................................


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## MrockStar (Apr 21, 2020)

Since we abandoned the Gold standard a while ago its all bases on the good faith of the American people in the fiscal integrity of the  Federal government.


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## TravelTime (May 12, 2020)

Working for home may be the future. I was skeptical that companies would change permanently but it looks like many are considering it. I hope work from home becomes the standard.

---------

Manhattan Faces a Reckoning if Working From Home Becomes the Norm
Even after the crisis eases, companies may let workers stay home. That would affect an entire ecosystem, from transit to restaurants to shops. Not to mention the tax base.

Before the coronavirus crisis, three of New York City’s largest commercial tenants — Barclays, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley — had tens of thousands of workers in towers across Manhattan. Now, as the city wrestles with when and how to reopen, executives at all three firms have decided that it is highly unlikely that all their workers will ever return to those buildings.

The research firm Nielsen has arrived at a similar conclusion. Even after the crisis has passed, its 3,000 workers in the city will no longer need to be in the office full-time and can instead work from home most of the week.

The real estate company Halstead has 32 branches across the city and region. But its chief executive, who now conducts business over video calls, is mulling reducing its footprint.......

.....But now, as the pandemic eases its grip, companies are considering not just how to safely bring back employees, but whether all of them need to come back at all. They were forced by the crisis to figure out how to function productively with workers operating from home — and realized unexpectedly that it was not all bad.

If that’s the case, they are now wondering whether it’s worth continuing to spend as much money on Manhattan’s exorbitant commercial rents. They are also mindful that public health considerations might make the packed workplaces of the recent past less viable......









						Manhattan Faces a Reckoning if Working From Home Becomes the Norm (Published 2020)
					

Even after the crisis eases, companies may let workers stay home. That would affect an entire ecosystem, from transit to restaurants to shops. Not to mention the tax base.




					www.nytimes.com


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## MrockStar (May 12, 2020)

Urban Farming may make a comeback, like here in Detroit.


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## Miss Marty (Jun 7, 2020)

*
Predictions of Change for the people of Detroit and some other cities 

I think more people in Detroit will appreciate fast food restaurants
that have "Bullet Proof Glass" that helps to protect staff from robberies
and now will also help protect people from the spread of Coronavirus..

Google - Youtube: Detroit bullet proof glass - search
(Burger King, McDonalds, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Subway, etc)


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## Brett (Jun 7, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Working for home may be the future. I was skeptical that companies would change permanently but it looks like many are considering it. I hope work from home becomes the standard.
> 
> ---------
> 
> ...



working from home could be the new norm if it saves $$$
https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2020/06/06/working-from-home-its-now-athing/#182c6f1e5d54


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## WalnutBaron (Jun 14, 2020)

A friend of mine who sells residential real estate in San Francisco tells me that he doesn't like the trends in the local market due to a high increase in work-from-home employees who no longer are asked to commute to The City 5-6 days per week. The number of new listings has plunged, and the shorter supply of homes on the market is the only thing keeping prices at relatively similar levels pre-COVID, but once homeowners decide they can move out of SF to a less expensive area while still keeping their job and commuting only 1-2 days/week, he thinks prices will move down throughout the last half of 2020 and all of 2021.

He is also seeing rents beginning to come down for the same reason, as many are moving further away from their offices while still keeping their jobs. One of the communities benefiting from this trend, by the way, is Napa--a beautiful community a ferry boat ride away from SF, and less than 40% of the values in SF.

Definitely a phenomenon to keep an eye on.


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## Miss Marty (Jun 17, 2020)

Predictions of Change

Many people don`t have no idea how close they are to losing their history
~ Save all history books and old _encyclopedia_ with pictures and facts ~


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## Conan (Jun 17, 2020)

Miss Marty said:


> Predictions of Change
> 
> Many people don`t have no idea how close they are to losing their history
> ~ Save all history books and old _encyclopedia_ with pictures and facts ~


I’ll bite—please give an example of a fact in an old history book/encyclopedia that’s likely to be lost. Not a textbook—the middle school and high school books I learned from back then were packed with misinformation and bias.



			https://www.richmond.com/discover-richmond/happy-slaves-the-peculiar-story-of-three-virginia-school-textbooks/article_47e79d49-eac8-575d-ac9d-1c6fce52328f.amp.html


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## pedro47 (Jun 17, 2020)

Something is wrong,
1. People are unemployed as an all time high.
2. Business are closed and are going out of business.
3. Gas and food prices are going up.
4. Consumer are now required to pay a surcharge on some items because of the Covid-19 virus.
5. Covid-19 is on the rise in twelve (12) states.
6. Your pay check or retirement check are remaining the same. No pay increases. Some are taking pay reduction 10 to 30%.
7. There are no current sporting events on television or cable.
8. Automobile and home sales are down.
9. Shopping malls are now looking liked  ghost towns.


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## Country Roads (Jun 17, 2020)

I've always found that bias, much like beauty, is often in the eye of the beholder.


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## Brett (Jun 17, 2020)

Miss Marty said:


> Predictions of Change
> 
> Many people don`t have no idea how close they are to losing their history
> ~ Save all history books and old _encyclopedia_ with pictures and facts ~



History may be changing ---   or as you say "altered", not "lost".
You've posted in the eastern timeshare section about how much you dislike the removal of confederate monuments but plenty of confederate statues still remain on private church property.  And travel on down to Norfolk and Hampton Roads - confederate flags in the restaurants !
You can proudly celebrate General Robert E. Lee
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials


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## SmithOp (Jun 17, 2020)

It will be a shame to lose the English Grammar books with lessons on double negatives.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## TravelTime (Jun 17, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Something is wrong,
> 1. People are unemployed as an all time high.
> 2. Business are closed and are going out of business.
> 3. Gas and food prices are going up.
> ...



On #6, I hope paychecks remain the same. I know many people who are getting pay reductions from 10% to 30% and they are happy to still have a job.


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## Cornell (Jun 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> On #6, I hope paychecks remain the same. I know many people who are getting pay reductions from 10% to 30% and they are happy to still have a job.


Yeah, I stopped at #6.  My pay has been cut.


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## Sugarcubesea (Jun 17, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Yeah, I stopped at #6.  My pay has been cut.


Yep, mine has been cut as well.


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## PigsDad (Jun 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Yeah, I stopped at #6.  My pay has been cut.


15% cut July - October (4 months) for me.  Salary cuts ranged from 10-25%, based on job level at my company.

Kurt


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## TravelTime (Jul 16, 2021)

WalnutBaron said:


> One thing I find fascinating about the social impact of COVID-19 is how it has accelerated changes that were already in the works. I will first say that much of what I am sharing here is my own opinion--and I'm sure there will be many who disagree with some or perhaps all of what I am forecasting below:
> 
> 
> The shopping mall was a dinosaur. Now it's a dead one.
> ...



One and a half years later and the USA seems to be getting back to normal much more quickly. 
1) Travel is booming. Hotels and airlines are booked. People are booking cruises again.
2) Traffic is crazy again. June 15, the day California lifted its Covid restriction, it was like the flood gates opened.
3) People are moving back to the cities for jobs and shocked that rents are higher (of course they are going to be higher).
4) Companies are asking employees to come back to the office for work collaboration. I am wondering what is going to happen to the real estate market in the next 2 years when people realize they moved too far away from their jobs and their boss wants them back in the office.
5) Zoom fatigue is huge and can’t substitute for real life connection. Hence, I think we will see business travel making a comeback.
6) Kids lost a lot of learning and saw mental health declines so they are going back to school in person. I am glad I enrolled my kids in private school so they did not have these problems.
7) Businesses that did not go out of business are raising prices (inflation is way up). 
8) Youth sports did not go away or have any real changes. My girls did sports all year and so did many kids I know.
9) Large companies are continuing to invest in real estate. 
10) All the companies that laid off employees during Covid and having trouble re-hiring them since they moved on and the stimulus funded them. But this will all change soon and the mis-match between supply and demand will equalize at some point.

I already miss the stay at home orders when there was no traffic and you could work from home 100%. I do not miss wearing a mask during the hot weather.


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## rickandcindy23 (Jul 16, 2021)

Sounds like masks will be back for southern CA.  I hope not.  We go to Disneyland late September.


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## klpca (Jul 16, 2021)

TravelTime said:


> One and a half years later and the USA seems to be getting back to normal much more quickly.
> 1) Travel is booming. Hotels and airlines are booked. People are booking cruises again.
> 2) Traffic is crazy again. June 15, the day California lifted its Covid restriction, it was like the flood gates opened.
> 3) People are moving back to the cities for jobs and shocked that rents are higher (of course they are going to be higher).
> ...


Not only is the traffic nuts, the drivers are too. Speeding and aggressive driving like I've never seen before! 

I'm back in the small office where I work (my choice but my boss made it clear that *he* would prefer me to work there) and he is driving me crazy with the million interruptions, speaking to clients on the phone for very long, very loud conversations so I have to get up and close the door constantly,  doing webinars with his office door open etc. I usually listen to a podcast to tune the noise out but would prefer to work in a quiet environment like my home office. When I wear my earbuds my boss hates that  I don't hear him lol. My productivity is way down. 

Only one of us is happy and it's not me.


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## JeffC (Jul 16, 2021)

It’s not just drivers. Rude obnoxious behavior is rampant. At restaurants, stores and public places I see it at a level I don’t remember pre-covid. Almost every retail and restaurant establishment has a sign out for help wanted . You’d think people would see the lack of staffing and be more understanding. I think too many have been cooped up by themselves much too long.


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## TravelTime (Jul 16, 2021)

JeffC said:


> It’s not just drivers. Rude obnoxious behavior is rampant. At restaurants, stores and public places I see it at a level I don’t remember pre-covid. Almost every retail and restaurant establishment has a sign out for help wanted . You’d think people would see the lack of staffing and be more understanding. I think too many have been cooped up by themselves much too long.



I think the labor problem has to do with businesses laying off during Covid. It is hard to re-staff all at once. The stimulus and enhanced unemployment benefits did not help getting people to work either.


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## Brett (Jul 16, 2021)

TravelTime said:


> I think the labor problem has to do with businesses laying off during Covid. It is hard to re-staff all at once. The stimulus and enhanced unemployment benefits did not help getting people to work either.



one explanation for the "labor problem"

Wall Street Journal
July 9  2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/job-op...unemployed-americans-filling-them-11625823021





*Millions of Americans say they can’t find a job. Millions of employers say they can’t find workers. A reason for this mismatch is that people are leaving cities or industries where businesses need them most.*


Several factors are behind the development: Many workers moved during the pandemic and aren’t where jobs are available; many have changed their preferences, for instance pursuing remote work, having discovered the benefits of life with no commute; the economy itself shifted, leading to jobs in industries such as warehousing that aren’t in places where workers live or suit the skills they have; extended unemployment benefits and relief checks, meantime, are giving workers time to be choosy in their search for the next job.
“The labor market is a matching market where you need to choose something and be chosen by it,” said Julia Pollak, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter Inc., an online employment marketplace.

“This is not a market for shoes and pizzas. It is a very complicated market.”

A recent ZipRecruiter survey found 70% of job seekers who last worked in the leisure and hospitality industry say they are now looking for work in a different industry. In addition, 55% of job applicants want remote jobs. An April survey of U.S. workers who lost jobs in the pandemic, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, found that 30.9% didn’t want to return to their old jobs, up from 19.8% last July.
Economists call the phenomenon slowing the job market recovery “mismatch,” a disconnect between the jobs open and the people looking for work. It was the subject of intense debate inside the Federal Reserve after the 2008-2009 recession. Some Fed officials believed the economy was suffering from a skills mismatch in the form of unemployed construction, real estate and manufacturing workers who weren’t suited for jobs growing in other sectors such as


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## TravelTime (Sep 22, 2022)

Let’s revisit the predictions of change. Which changes appear to be permanent and here to stay? Which ones are going back to how there were, albeit slowly?

————————

Interesting article about how return to work mandates are starting to get workers back in the office:





__





						Loading…
					





					www.washingtonpost.com
				




The early results are in: The return to work is working.

Office occupancy hit a pandemic high over the last week according to data tracked by Kastle Systems, a security company, with 10 of the country’s top metropolitan areas seeing an average of 47.5 percent of workers swiping into offices compared with pre-pandemic levels.

That’s up more than nearly 4 percent from the week before Labor Day, when bosses drew the latest line with the push to return to offices. At the same time last year, the national average was less than 31 percent.
Wednesday of last week was the busiest yet across the country, with the national average creeping up to 54.5 percent of pre-pandemic levels, the highest since early 2020 according to Kastle.

Even so, office occupancy in the United States remains below half of what it was in 2019, according to Kastle’s data, with a growing divergence between office attendance on the coasts and elsewhere…

… “We are seeing some incremental increase in expectation for folks to get back in the workplace more often throughout the workweek,” Larson said.…

…“We had four false starts on bringing people back to the office,” said Kathy Wylde, chief executive of the Partnership for New York City, a group representing hundreds of major employers. “This feels like we’re finally putting the pandemic behind us.”…

..“We are hearing more and more that employees are recognizing that their career advancement depends on relationships and getting back to the office,” Wylde said. “We think that will continue to advance.”…

… The long term verdict on offices remains up in the air, and it’s going to take awhile to work itself out, according to Jeff Adler, vice president of the data division of Yardi, a property management software company that works with offices around the globe. The return-to-work calculus has been constantly changing for each industry, each company, Adler said, and needs are still evolving.…

… Still, “The best marquee buildings are leasing very nicely, very quickly,” Adler said. “Because if you’re going to have a place, you might as well have a good one, right?”…


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