# Tourism to Return?



## csodjd (Apr 8, 2020)

As I understand it, the 14-day quarantine rule ends May 20. Southwest just updated flight schedules and the following is being reported: 

_Southwest now plans to revive daily Oakland-Maui flights on May 21, followed by a restoration of San Jose-Honolulu and Sacramento-Honolulu service on June 7. The airline will also add a new California-Hawaii route on June 7, kicking off daily flights from San Diego to Honolulu. _

I wonder if other airlines will start to resume service May 21? Just in time for the Memorial Weekend? What restrictions will there be on the Islands?


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## CalGalTraveler (Apr 8, 2020)

Not sure about what will be open, however, the key question is do YOU want to risk it? Even though the peak may have passed, if you haven't tested positive for Covid-19 and have some form of immunity, or if no proven off-label treatments exist, you or your family are still vulnerable.

May/June seems early to see results of off-label drug or plasma trials.  Although I haven't had the heart to cancel our Kingsland visit in June, the prospects are poor no matter what's open/not open.


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## vacationtime1 (Apr 8, 2020)

I wouldn't be buying non-refundable airline tickets, hotels, or rental cars for a trip to Hawaii this May.

California isn't supposed to have its "peak" number of Covid-19 cases until mid-May; why would anyone think they should get on an airplane for a non-essential vacation at that exact time?


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## csodjd (Apr 8, 2020)

vacationtime1 said:


> I wouldn't be buying non-refundable airline tickets, hotels, or rental cars for a trip to Hawaii this May.
> 
> California isn't supposed to have its "peak" number of Covid-19 cases until mid-May; why would anyone think they should get on an airplane for a non-essential vacation at that exact time?


Actually, the latest models show California resource use peaks in five days, will only need 6 hospital beds in the entire state for COVID by May 23 and zero by May 30, and deaths/day will hit 0 by May 16. That means very few new cases by early May since mortality lags 1-2 weeks behind infection. Hawaii is ahead of CA on all those measures.









						IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org
				




It would seem that by May 20 for Hawaii there is no tourist safer than one from CA, and no place safer for someone in CA to go than Hawaii. The drive to/from the airport is probably more dangerous than COVID by May 20.


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## Miss Marty (Apr 8, 2020)

Social Distancing

Air LInes should limit how many people fly on their planes during/after Covid-19
Passengers would likely be in full support of: removing the middle seats !


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## jpc763 (Apr 8, 2020)

csodjd said:


> As I understand it, the 14-day quarantine rule ends May 20.


Where did you see May 20?  Only thing I have been able to find is "until further notice".


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## bnoble (Apr 8, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Actually, the latest models show California resource use peaks in five days, will only need 6 hospital beds in the entire state for COVID by May 23 and zero by May 30, and deaths/day will hit 0 by May 16.


This is only true if a lot of things that haven't happened yet happen. From that site's FAQ:

*



			Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?
		
Click to expand...

*


> Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.


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## DaveNV (Apr 8, 2020)

The thing to consider is that even if the peak has passed, it just means the next day, the rate of infection will be lower than it was the day before.  The virus is still just as deadly, just that a fewer number of cases will be new.  Those people who catch it will be just as sick, and just as vulnerable.  The peak of infections only refers to the number of cases, nothing more.

Don't get in a rush, or you could easily become a statistic.

Dave


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## Luanne (Apr 8, 2020)

Just the perspective of my dh.  He's not planning to do ANY travel through the end of this year.  We are in the age bracket that needs to be careful, and he has some health issues.  So I'm supporting him on this as it's more for peace of mind.


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## slip (Apr 8, 2020)

The Hawaii Lieutenant Governor said yesterday that there was going to be an announcement today. Don’t know what it is though.

These restrictions are going to be eased at sometime and it will happen all over. Some hard decisions are going to have to be made with when they are going to happen.

After the restrictions are lifted people will make decisions on what they are going to do. I for one, will not tell anyone what they should do. These decisions are theirs to make.


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## csodjd (Apr 8, 2020)

slip said:


> The Hawaii Lieutenant Governor said yesterday that there was going to be an announcement today. Don’t know what it is though.
> 
> These restrictions are going to be eased at sometime and it will happen all over. Some hard decisions are going to have to be made with when they are going to happen.
> 
> After the restrictions are lifted people will make decisions on what they are going to do. I for one, will not tell anyone what they should do. These decisions are theirs to make.


I'd expect that they will relax restrictions within Hawaii well before they relax restrictions on tourists entering Hawaii. So that's what I'd expect to hear first... that in a week or so they'll start to allow those in Hawaii to start getting back to normal, while maintaining their isolation from others.


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## PigsDad (Apr 8, 2020)

Miss Marty said:


> Social Distancing
> 
> Air LInes should limit how many people fly on their planes during/after Covid-19
> Passengers would likely be in full support of: removing the middle seats !


So you are also in favor of a 33% price increase for all tickets, right?  Hint:  not going to happen.

Kurt


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## csodjd (Apr 8, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> So you are also in favor of a 33% price increase for all tickets, right?  Hint:  not going to happen.
> 
> Kurt


Demand for first class may skyrocket.


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## PigsDad (Apr 8, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Demand for first class may skyrocket.


Given that we are headed into what looks like a big recession, I don't see demand for luxury first class tickets increasing anytime soon.

Kurt


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## vacationtime1 (Apr 8, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Given that we are headed into what looks like a big recession, I don't see demand for luxury first class tickets increasing anytime soon.
> 
> Kurt



Recessions don't affect every economic class evenly.  This one will be devastating to small business owners (especially in travel and hospitality), blue collar workers, and people living paycheck to paycheck. 

Retirees will not be as affected -- and they purchase a disproportionate share of first class, non-business travel.  People with jobs where they can work remotely will also suffer less economic impact.

I don't want to downplay the pain that is resulting, but we know it is not being borne equally.


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## PigsDad (Apr 8, 2020)

vacationtime1 said:


> Recessions don't affect every economic class evenly.


Of course they don't affect everyone evenly, but I don't see the demand for first class tickets "skyrocketing" as was suggested in the post I was replying to.  Do you?

Kurt


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## TravelTime (Apr 8, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Of course they don't affect everyone evenly, but I don't see the demand for first class tickets "skyrocketing" as was suggested in the post I was replying to.  Do you?
> 
> Kurt



Demand for luxury goods usually go down during a recession. Many rich people are affected too. Not sure why there is a belief that rich people are insulated from recessions. Many are and many are not.

——-

*Virus impact on fashion and luxury to be ‘worse than recession’*
Sales forecast to drop by a third as lockdowns cut deeper than feared
Financial Times

The hit to fashion and luxury sales from coronavirus is expected to be much harder than previously feared, as a decade of growth comes to a crushing halt. Revenues are expected to plunge between 25 per cent and 35 per cent this year as a direct result of store closures owing to coronavirus lockdowns, according to the Boston Consulting Group. The impact on fashion and luxury — a category that includes apparel and accessories, watches and jewellery, and perfumes and cosmetics — is expected be more severe this year than the recession a decade ago, with total sales dropping between $450bn to $650bn from 2019 levels. The outlook is far bleaker than the firm suggested in late February, when it estimated sales for the year would decline by about 15 per cent. That was before the virus took hold in Europe and the US and was declared a pandemic.


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## Luanne (Apr 8, 2020)

I just got an email that our home resort Maui Lea at Maui Hill in Kihei, Maui is closing down for the month of May.


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## slip (Apr 8, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I just got an email that our home resort Maui Lea at Maui Hill in Kihei, Maui is closing down for the month of May.



It was just reported today, that there was a large cluster of positive tests at a hospital on Maui. It said the cluster of 15 and that the positives could have been in contact with between 300 to 500 people.


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## Luanne (Apr 8, 2020)

@slip thanks.


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## controller1 (Apr 8, 2020)

jpc763 said:


> Where did you see May 20?  Only thing I have been able to find is "until further notice".



Here is the May 20th date:  https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-cont...ementary-Proclamation-for-COVID-19-signed.pdf


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## csodjd (Apr 9, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Given that we are headed into what looks like a big recession, I don't see demand for luxury first class tickets increasing anytime soon.
> 
> Kurt


I was being facetious. That said, as others have said, plenty of people do just fine. I can tell you that in 2008-2010 where I live, good luck getting a table for dinner at Mastros without reservations!


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## csodjd (Apr 9, 2020)

slip said:


> It was just reported today, that there was a large cluster of positive tests at a hospital on Maui. It said the cluster of 15 and that the positives could have been in contact with between 300 to 500 people.


That was actually in mid-March. They were tested and isolated. 









						Lack of proper protocols at Maui hospital may have contributed to COVID-19 cluster
					

At least 15 health care workers at the facility have tested positive.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


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## slip (Apr 9, 2020)

Lack of proper protocols at Maui hospital may have contributed to COVID-19 cluster
					

At least 15 health care workers at the facility have tested positive.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				



[/QUOTE]

I


csodjd said:


> That was actually in mid-March. They were tested and isolated.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It was just reported today. That’s why the article mentions that the Mayor was asked about a coverup.


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## NTP66 (Apr 9, 2020)

Article said:
			
		

> On top of that, Anderson stated the hospital wasn’t providing staff with enough personal protective equipment.
> 
> “I’ve had contact with a number of people in the hospital who essentially said PPE was being rationed," he said.



Unfortunately, this is similar to many health systems across the US, even today.

As for returning to the islands, I've spoken with multiple AA reps over the last week or so, and they expect AA to move forward with cancelling flights through June, as well. Personally, I wouldn't be comfortable visiting until we see how the downward slope is all over. Just because some states will be getting over their peaks soon doesn't mean it should be a free for all. We can't waste the work we've done staying home by immediately going back to normal, IMO. I canceled our June trip and will either try and rent somebody else's unit in the summer of 2021, or just wait until my next usage year (2022).


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## tompalm (Apr 10, 2020)

A friend of mine is a pilot for Hawaiian and said that he is off until July when Hawaiian plans to start normal operations. They might have flights in June, but not a full schedule. Also, if the virus is still alive and being spread, don‘t expect normal flight ops to start in July. Schools in Hawaii will not start until fall and that is only if no community virus infections have been transmitted in four weeks. Don’t make any plans more than a couple weeks in advance and you know for certain that restrictions have been lifted.


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## csodjd (Apr 10, 2020)

tompalm said:


> A friend of mine is a pilot for Hawaiian and said that he is off until July when Hawaiian plans to start normal operations. They might have flights in June, but not a full schedule. Also, if the virus is still alive and being spread, don‘t expect normal flight ops to start in July. Schools in Hawaii will not start until fall and that is only if no community virus infections have been transmitted in four weeks. Don’t make any plans more than a couple weeks in advance and you know for certain that restrictions have been lifted.


Yet Hawaiian is playing coy with cancellations. I used their "Chat" to try and cancel a couple of reservations and get a refund for flight HA 41, LAX-OGG, on May 22. The flight does not appear on their schedule anymore, so I assumed it was canceled. I was told no, it's not canceled, it's still scheduled to go, they just aren't selling any more tickets for the flight. HA. I called BS. They just wanted me to cancel so they didn't have to refund. Sooner or later they will have to admit the flight is canceled.


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## b2bailey (Apr 10, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Actually, the latest models show California resource use peaks in five days, will only need 6 hospital beds in the entire state for COVID by May 23 and zero by May 30, and deaths/day will hit 0 by May 16. That means very few new cases by early May since mortality lags 1-2 weeks behind infection. Hawaii is ahead of CA on all those measures.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hadn't seen this before, but 6 sickbeds in the entire state? That seems near impossible.


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## NTP66 (Apr 10, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Yet Hawaiian is playing coy with cancellations. I used their "Chat" to try and cancel a couple of reservations and get a refund for flight HA 41, LAX-OGG, on May 22. The flight does not appear on their schedule anymore, so I assumed it was canceled. I was told no, it's not canceled, it's still scheduled to go, they just aren't selling any more tickets for the flight. HA. I called BS. They just wanted me to cancel so they didn't have to refund. Sooner or later they will have to admit the flight is canceled.


It'll most likely be cancelled, but you can always HUCA to get a different CSR. I saw this mentioned earlier this week here: https://beatofhawaii.com/wait-to-get-your-refund-and-maybe-more-hawaii-flights-cancelled/


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## csodjd (Apr 10, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> Hadn't seen this before, but 6 sickbeds in the entire state? That seems near impossible.


Well, remember that 80% have no complications, so extrapolating backward that means only about 40-50 new cases, meaning community spread almost gone. Assumes continuing excellent compliance with masks and distancing, of course.


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## TravelTime (Apr 10, 2020)

csodjd said:


> I was being facetious. That said, as others have said, plenty of people do just fine. I can tell you that in 2008-2010 where I live, good luck getting a table for dinner at Mastros without reservations!



Many people will do just fine now as in 2008-2010. Even though I am worried about my small business, I am not especially worried about us personally. We have plenty of savings to shelter us during this recession. But anything can happen. The next surprise could be just around the corner. So I have lost my nativity regarding that life can be secure.


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## csodjd (Apr 10, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Many people will do just fine now as in 2008-2010. Even though I am worried about my small business, I am not especially worried about us personally. We have plenty of savings to shelter us during this recession. *But anything can happen. The next surprise could be just around the corner. So I have lost my nativity regarding that life can be secure.*


Sounds like the start to a good insurance company commercial.


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## TravelTime (Apr 10, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Sounds like the start to a good insurance company commercial.



Ha, ha, LOL. Yes I agree it would be a good insurance commercial, assuming we can get Covid-19 insurance!


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## csodjd (Apr 10, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Ha, ha, LOL. Yes I agree it would be a good insurance commercial, assuming we can get Covid-19 insurance!


You can be pretty certain that if you could have, you won't be able to anymore. I wonder if Travel Insurance will be impacted or change their policies as a result of this.


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## Luanne (Apr 10, 2020)

csodjd said:


> You can be pretty certain that if you could have, you won't be able to anymore. I wonder if Travel Insurance will be impacted or change their policies as a result of this.


I thought I heard they already were.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christ...us-has-changed-travel-insurance/#66a8c3731664


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## csodjd (Apr 10, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I thought I heard they already were.
> 
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/christ...us-has-changed-travel-insurance/#66a8c3731664


Well, that certainly addresses the question. But if they don't cover anything, they also shoot themselves in the foot, other than to prey on the unsuspecting. Because my wife has a condition that could prevent us from taking a trip I've started buying insurance for expensive trips. I've looked at the policies and they have "pre-existing condition" exclusions. But they define a pre-existing condition in a non-intuitive way. As I understand it, they refer to conditions for which you obtained medical care in the days before the trip. Or they have useless limits, like this in Allianz:

_Trip Cancellation Coverage You have to cancel your trip before you depart. Pre-existing Medical Condition Limit: Claims for trip cancellation due to a pre-existing medical condition can be covered up to the maximum trip cancellation benefit limit, not to exceed $200.00. Conditions apply._

Then they define pre-existing condition:

_An injury, illness, or medical condition that, within the 120 days prior to and including the purchase date of this certificate: 
1. Caused a person to seek medical examination, diagnosis, care, or treatment by a doctor;
2. Presented symptoms; or
3. Required a person to take medication prescribed by a doctor (unless the condition or symptoms are controlled by that prescription, and the prescription has not changed).
The illness, injury, or medical condition does not need to be formally diagnosed in order to be considered a pre-existing medical condition._

So if you have a heart attack a week before your trip, sorry, only $200 of coverage.


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## Kapolei (Apr 10, 2020)

tompalm said:


> A friend of mine is a pilot for Hawaiian and said that he is off until July when Hawaiian plans to start normal operations. They might have flights in June, but not a full schedule. Also, if the virus is still alive and being spread, don‘t expect normal flight ops to start in July. Schools in Hawaii will not start until fall and that is only if no community virus infections have been transmitted in four weeks. Don’t make any plans more than a couple weeks in advance and you know for certain that restrictions have been lifted.



Thanks for the information.  Maybe this is off topic, but I would be interested in learning more about the aircraft and the pilots. What is the protocol when an aircraft is sitting for an extended period of time.  What are the flight training issues?   Maybe this will be too short of a pause to make a difference.   My understanding is that this equipment and the pilots are designed to be continually flying and not sitting on the ground.


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## geist1223 (Apr 10, 2020)

Because FAA Regulations and the length of time the Pilots have all been off they are all going you have to do some training flights before they fly passengers again.


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## Kapolei (Apr 11, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Because FAA Regulations and the length of time the Pilots have all been off they are all going you have to do some training flights before they fly passengers again.



I am thinking that veteran pilots that fly across the pacific will probably be just fine financially and skill wise.  Maybe this is a nice break.  Newer pilots on the mainland flying smaller aircraft might have a harder time financially.  And they will miss out on the daily flights.  As far as the aircraft, maybe a lot of service will get done earlier than required.  Or are the aircraft just parked under some kind of mothball protocol?


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## SmithOp (Apr 11, 2020)

Kapolei said:


> I am thinking that veteran pilots that fly across the pacific will probably be just fine financially and skill wise. Maybe this is a nice break. Newer pilots on the mainland flying smaller aircraft might have a harder time financially. And they will miss out on the daily flights. As far as the aircraft, maybe a lot of service will get done earlier than required. Or are the aircraft just parked under some kind of mothball protocol?












						Keeping our Parked Planes in Flying Shape
					

As the only major Hawai‘i-based airline, with over 90 years of service to our community, images of our fleet on the ground and not in the sky serve as a powerful daily reminder of the severity of this crisis.




					www.hawaiianairlines.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## JIMinNC (Apr 11, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Well, remember that 80% have no complications, so extrapolating backward that means only about 40-50 new cases, meaning community spread almost gone. Assumes continuing excellent compliance with masks and distancing, of course.



Be careful with putting too much weight on the models. Just as they initially overestimated the increase in cases/deaths on the way up, they also appear to be overestimating the rate at which the infections and deaths will wane. The IMHE model that came our a day or two ago predicted that deaths in Italy would be 335 on April 10 and 281 on April 11. Actual numbers were 570 on the 10th and 619 on the 11th. They predict Italy deaths to fall to zero in early May. Seems incomprehensible to me. Hope they are right, but I have my doubts.


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## csodjd (Apr 11, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> Be careful with putting too much weight on the models. Just as they initially overestimated the increase in cases/deaths on the way up, they also appear to be overestimating the rate at which the infections and deaths will wane. The IMHE model that came our a day or two ago predicted that deaths in Italy would be 335 on April 10 and 281 on April 11. Actual numbers were 570 on the 10th and 619 on the 11th. They predict Italy deaths to fall to zero in early May. Seems incomprehensible to me. Hope they are right, but I have my doubts.


We have to be sure to look at the shaded areas as they represent, in effect, the margin of error or range. So far the models have been very accurate within those ranges.


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## JIMinNC (Apr 11, 2020)

csodjd said:


> We have to be sure to look at the shaded areas as they represent, in effect, the margin of error or range. So far the models have been very accurate within those ranges.



But at least in Italy, even their high-low ranges are off and the actuals are outside the bounds of their range:

April 10 - predicted 335 (range 211-522) Actual: 570
April 11 - predicted 281 (range 177-439) Actual: 619
April 12 - predicted 242 (range 154-380) Actual: TBD

Obviously the 10th actual wasn't all that far off from the high limit, but the 11th was way off. Maybe the 11th will prove to be an aberration and over the next few days actuals will fall in line, but the story out of Italy is not as positive as it was a few days ago. Saturday's death toll there was the highest since April 6 and the almost 4700 new cases was the highest since April 4. I haven't seen any regional breakdowns from Italy, but I'm wondering if Lombardy and Veneto are declining, but those declines are now being offset by new hot spots in other parts of the country.


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## Kapolei (Apr 11, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> Keeping our Parked Planes in Flying Shape
> 
> 
> As the only major Hawai‘i-based airline, with over 90 years of service to our community, images of our fleet on the ground and not in the sky serve as a powerful daily reminder of the severity of this crisis.
> ...



Excellent job by their management and their PR department for letting us know what is happening.  Makes the customer feel safe and connected to their operations.


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## lynne (Apr 11, 2020)

Kim shuts down vacation rentals: Proclamation signed Friday declares STVRs ‘nonessential.’ - West Hawaii Today
					

Mayor Harry Kim signed an emergency rule Friday shutting down transient vacation rentals for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic emergency.




					www.westhawaiitoday.com
				




FYI - I think the onslaught of 'intended residents' is what prompted this decision.


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## Kapolei (Apr 11, 2020)

lynne said:


> Kim shuts down vacation rentals: Proclamation signed Friday declares STVRs ‘nonessential.’ - West Hawaii Today
> 
> 
> Mayor Harry Kim signed an emergency rule Friday shutting down transient vacation rentals for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic emergency.
> ...



There was a news report of a broker finding long term rentals for wealthy New Yorkers on Maui.


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## csodjd (Apr 11, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> But at least in Italy, even their high-low ranges are off and the actuals are outside the bounds of their range:
> 
> April 10 - predicted 335 (range 211-522) Actual: 570
> April 11 - predicted 281 (range 177-439) Actual: 619
> ...


Since you enjoy digging down into the details, be sure you look at this: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates which explains a lot of what they are doing and how they adapt to try and increase accuracy.


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## bbodb1 (Apr 12, 2020)

_If we can jump ahead for a moment to a time when air travel is open for business as usual (or something pretty close to that)...._

I wonder what the status will be of a good number of attractions we wanted to patronize during our planned vacation to Hawaii (for example, boat excursions, van tours, etc).  Not only would one suspect that some of them will be out of business but even when they do resume operations, it cannot be business as usual due to increased awareness of social distancing.  

And what will happen to their pricing?  The perception of Hawaii attraction pricing (_from the perspective of someone who has never been there) _was/is prices seemed extraordinarily high.  But if attraction capacities are reduced to maintain social distancing, it seems likely prices will (at best) remain where they are and may even increase.  

Is it reasonable to assume the pull of Hawaii is going to lessen (at least for a period of time) because costs will be out of reach for a greater number of people?


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## HudsHut (Apr 12, 2020)

controller1 said:


> Here is the May 20th date:  https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-cont...ementary-Proclamation-for-COVID-19-signed.pdf



I see a "Third Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 21, 2020 and a "Fourth Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 31, 2020, where the date in last paragraph reverts to April 30, 2020.

"I FURTHER DECLARE that  the  disaster  emergency  relief  period  shall continue through April 30, 2020, unless terminated or extended by a separate proclamation, whichever shall occur first."









						2020 COVID19
					






					dod.hawaii.gov
				




Does that mean that April 30, 2020 is currently the quarantine end date?


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## csodjd (Apr 12, 2020)

HudsHut said:


> I see a "Third Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 21, 2020 and a "Fourth Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 31, 2020, where the date in last paragraph reverts to April 30, 2020.
> 
> "I FURTHER DECLARE that  the  disaster  emergency  relief  period  shall continue through April 30, 2020, unless terminated or extended by a separate proclamation, whichever shall occur first."
> 
> ...


Given that they had 21 new cases yesterday, even if it is, it seems quite unlikely to hold. The airlines certainly think it'll be a lot longer before people can start traveling to Hawaii.


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## HudsHut (Apr 12, 2020)

csodjd:
I appreciate your starting this thread, as I checked our Southwest account, and they had cancelled our end of May flights. (We had already cancelled our accommodations, but had not yet cancelled the flights.) As far as I can tell, they didn't send any notification.
I was just puzzled by the Second Supplementary Proclamation having the May 20, 2020 date, and the Third and Fourth ones having the April 30, 2020 end date. I do realize they can supplement the proclamation, and lengthen the date again, at any time.


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## csodjd (Apr 12, 2020)

HudsHut said:


> csodjd:
> I appreciate your starting this thread, as I checked our Southwest account, and they had cancelled our end of May flights. (We had already cancelled our accommodations, but had not yet cancelled the flights.) As far as I can tell, they didn't send any notification.
> I was just puzzled by the Second Supplementary Proclamation having the May 20, 2020 date, and the Third and Fourth ones having the April 30, 2020 end date. I do realize they can supplement the proclamation, and lengthen the date again, at any time.


Who knows. Maybe they got some heat about being too conservative given Hawaii's real need for tourism, so they decided to leave more of a crack in the door. Either way, I suspect Hawaii is going to protect those in Hawaii first and foremost, and not introduce new risk from mainland or Asia tourism until they are really confident it won't create a second wave once they have the first wave tamped down. But they appear to have had 21 new cases in Hawaii yesterday... so they're not there yet.


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## Fredflintstone (Apr 12, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Who knows. Maybe they got some heat about being too conservative given Hawaii's real need for tourism, so they decided to leave more of a crack in the door. Either way, I suspect Hawaii is going to protect those in Hawaii first and foremost, and not introduce new risk from mainland or Asia tourism until they are really confident it won't create a second wave once they have the first wave tamped down. But they appear to have had 21 new cases in Hawaii yesterday... so they're not there yet.



It’s sure a delicate balance in Hawaii. My friends who live in Hawaii live simply due to the high costs of living. Many of them have multiple streams of income. They sell on eBay, etsy, do youtube, blog and work in the hospitality industry overall.

The problem I see in Hawaii is that folks overall can’t survive a long time shutting down the hospitality industry. Saying that, the military is huge in Hawaii and that will remain. It’s frankly their saving grace.

Economy or health....what a difficult choice! I have Hawaii booked still in December. I haven’t cancelled yet. I hope I don’t need too. However, I do respect the locales and if they choose to remain closed due to health, I will understand. 

I pray for my friends in Hawaii that they can hold the financial fort long enough for this to clear. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## geist1223 (Apr 12, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> _If we can jump ahead for a moment to a time when air travel is open for business as usual (or something pretty close to that)...._
> 
> I wonder what the status will be of a good number of attractions we wanted to patronize during our planned vacation to Hawaii (for example, boat excursions, van tours, etc).  Not only would one suspect that some of them will be out of business but even when they do resume operations, it cannot be business as usual due to increased awareness of social distancing.
> 
> ...



Our draw to Hawaii is not all the expensive activities. We snorkel from the Beach, we hike a lot, etc.


----------



## Luanne (Apr 12, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Our draw to Hawaii is not all the expensive activities. We snorkel from the Beach, we hike a lot, etc.


Us too. But we also go out to eat alot, take whale watch tours, many things that currently are restricted.


----------



## controller1 (Apr 12, 2020)

HudsHut said:


> I see a "Third Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 21, 2020 and a "Fourth Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 31, 2020, where the date in last paragraph reverts to April 30, 2020.
> 
> "I FURTHER DECLARE that  the  disaster  emergency  relief  period  shall continue through April 30, 2020, unless terminated or extended by a separate proclamation, whichever shall occur first."
> 
> ...



No it does not mean that the 14-day quarantine provision expires on April 30. Each of the Second, Third and Fourth Supplemental Proclamations addresses something different. Even though they are all COVID-19 related they do not address the same _specific_ subject and therefore the Second Supplementary Proclamation does not revert to an April 30, 2020, expiration.

Second supplementary proclamation addresses 14-day quarantine and currently expires May 20, 2020.

Third supplementary proclamation addresses stay-at-home and business closures and currently expires April 30, 2020.

Fourth supplementary proclamation addresses inter-island travel and currently expires April 30, 2020.


----------



## JIMinNC (Apr 13, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Since you enjoy digging down into the details, be sure you look at this: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates which explains a lot of what they are doing and how they adapt to try and increase accuracy.



Just to update, the trend in Italy headed back in the right direction today, with 431 lost souls. Still outside of the worst-case prediction from Saturday's IMHE model, but closer to their high-end projection. I think they plan to release an updated projection model on Monday, so we'll see how it changes. I've added the April 13 projection from Friday below, so we can see how it changes in the new model. I'm focusing on Italy as a validator of the model since that is probably the country that has been at this the longest with the most reliable data (vs. China with data that may be less reliable), so may be the best proxy for how well the model does in projecting the USA, including states like Hawaii:

April 10 - predicted 335 (range 211-522) Actual: 570
April 11 - predicted 281 (range 177-439) Actual: 619
April 12 - predicted 242 (range 154-380) Actual: 431
April 13 - predicted 207 (range 135-326) Actual TBD


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## Tamaradarann (Apr 13, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Our draw to Hawaii is not all the expensive activities. We snorkel from the Beach, we hike a lot, etc.



We have been to Hawaii for more than 1000 nights over the last 12 years.  We have done the expensive touristy stuff years ago.  However, the things we do and love are shutdown.  We love to walk the beach.  We love going to the symphony and the many small live theater productions.  We love just walking around people watching on Kalakaua.  We love to go to street for inexpensive dinners.  We love to meet up with friends for dinner at restaurants.  We love to go to Breweries and Beer Fests.  We like to walk to Target, Sam's, and Walmart for food without restrictions, masks, gloves, the worry about being contaiminated by other people.  Hawaii is not Hawaii for us right now.  Hopefully we can go back and it will be great again.


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## Maple_Leaf (Apr 13, 2020)

controller1 said:


> No it does not mean that the 14-day quarantine provision expires on April 30. Each of the Second, Third and Fourth Supplemental Proclamations addresses something different. Even though they are all COVID-19 related they do not address the same _specific_ subject and therefore the Second Supplementary Proclamation does not revert to an April 30, 2020, expiration.
> 
> Second supplementary proclamation addresses 14-day quarantine and currently expires May 20, 2020.
> 
> ...


These are just sunset clauses, subject to change based on how actual events unfold. If the proclamations didn't have these sunset clauses the local Chamber of Commerce heads would explode.


----------



## controller1 (Apr 13, 2020)

Maple_Leaf said:


> These are just sunset clauses, subject to change based on how actual events unfold. If the proclamations didn't have these sunset clauses the local Chamber of Commerce heads would explode.



Correct which is why I used the words "currently expires on" hoping everyone would realized "currently" means subject to change!


----------



## csodjd (Apr 13, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Economy or health....what a difficult choice! I have Hawaii booked still in December. I haven’t cancelled yet. I hope I don’t need too. However, I do respect the locales and if they choose to remain closed due to health, I will understand.


Very speculative at this point, but it may depend more on where you are coming from and/or testing than anything else. 

That said, I can imagine a scenario where people flying into Hawaii from anywhere outside Hawaii must submit to a two tests upon arrival: antibody (blood prick with near instant results), and if negative, virus (rapid, 15 min or less). If positive for antibodies or negative for virus... go enjoy yourself. If positive for virus, either return to where you came from or mask and 14 days confinement to your room. They would strongly encourage everyone to receive both tests within 24 hours of departure to Hawaii so people would know what to expect when they arrive and are tested and don't end up disappointed. This presumes good quick testing is readily available, but it seems that (i) will be the case in the not too distant future and (ii) will be necessary for any kind of economic recovery anywhere. The tests would be administered by Hawaii health officials at the airport -- just like going through customs when you fly into the US from outside the US.


----------



## controller1 (Apr 13, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Very speculative at this point, but it may depend more on where you are coming from and/or testing than anything else.



I can't imagine but only in a worst case scenario would a December Hawaii trip be speculative as of today. If it is truly speculative, the economy will not recover for a decade or more as the Hawaiian tourism economy cannot survive the current scenario for that long a time.


----------



## csodjd (Apr 13, 2020)

controller1 said:


> I can't imagine but only in a worst case scenario would a December Hawaii trip be speculative as of today. If it is truly speculative, the economy will not recover for a decade or more as the Hawaiian tourism economy cannot survive the current scenario for that long a time.


I meant speculative as to whether it will matter where you are coming from, not when they will open up. That too is speculative, but I agree it will be long before December. I think June/July is more likely. But the process they'll adopt is speculative.


----------



## JIMinNC (Apr 13, 2020)

I wish I was as optimistic as you guys about next winter. I consider the odds our Jan/Feb 2021 Hawaii trip will happen to be 50-50 at best. I do think it will be a long, long time before the tourism economy recovers. It would seem that basic life has to be able to return to at least a semi-normal state before state governments will want to open themselves up to an influx of tourists. No one seems to think the virus is going away, so it will likely still be with us next winter. Hope I’m wrong.


----------



## bnoble (Apr 13, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> I wish I was as optimistic as you guys about next winter. I consider the odds our Jan/Feb 2021 Hawaii trip will happen to be 50-50 at best.


We have a late December/early January trip planned, and I have similar odds on that.


----------



## csodjd (Apr 13, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> I wish I was as optimistic as you guys about next winter. I consider the odds our Jan/Feb 2021 Hawaii trip will happen to be 50-50 at best. I do think it will be a long, long time before the tourism economy recovers. It would seem that basic life has to be able to return to at least a semi-normal state before state governments will want to open themselves up to an influx of tourists. No one seems to think the virus is going away, so it will likely still be with us next winter. Hope I’m wrong.


I've developed a plan that would protect and insulate Hawaii and allow it to open entirely and without restrictions. Probably has holes, but here goes.... 

It starts with Hawaii being clean - no new cases on any island for at least two weeks. It assumes availability of rapid tests for antibodies (near instant) and for virus (15 min or less). I think those are both around the corner. From there, it's pretty simple and easy. 

All departures for Hawaii are handled like customs similar to when you arrive in the US from outside the US. That is, you must be individually evaluated. There would be a charge of, say, $25/person to fund this. Before boarding a plane everyone receives a rapid antibody test. If positive they check their luggage and head off for a vacation. If negative they then receive a virus test. If negative they check their luggage and head off for a vacation. They are not immune, but also not infected. If positive for virus they can't board the flight, nor can anyone in their traveling party (family unit, etc.) because those people were exposed and could go positive soon.  All testing is done by Hawaii health authorities.

Travelers would be encouraged to self-test before heading to the airport so they aren't surprised or disappointed, but the self-tests don't come into play. Must pass the Hawaii health authority tests.

This would also work for Disney, football games, etc. It would slow entry so you'd have to arrive ahead, but once a vaccine is out you could WAIVE testing by showing you were vaccinated at least X days prior (whatever the immunity ramp up is).


----------



## controller1 (Apr 13, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> It would seem that basic life has to be able to return to at least a semi-normal state before state governments will want to open themselves up to an influx of tourists.



When you look at the above sentence it is quite ironic for Hawaii and other tourist-heavy economies. A normal basic life or even a semi-normal basic life in Hawaii is one dominated by tourism which is the economic driver. Something like which comes first, the chicken or the egg...


----------



## JIMinNC (Apr 13, 2020)

csodjd said:


> I've developed a plan that would protect and insulate Hawaii and allow it to open entirely and without restrictions. Probably has holes, but here goes....
> 
> It starts with Hawaii being clean - no new cases on any island for at least two weeks. It assumes availability of rapid tests for antibodies (near instant) and for virus (15 min or less). I think those are both around the corner. From there, it's pretty simple and easy.
> 
> ...



I think, in concept, that approach could work, but there would seem to be two big challenges - throughput and availability of tests. The time it would take to administer these tests to a plane load of people (or a 70k seat stadium or Disney) would be more than anything experienced in most customs environments. Just the lines it could create could become a virus spread risk. There is also the elephant in the room with this whole "massively expanded testing" approach - with literally every country in the world trying to surge the availability of testing to allow some return of their economies, do we have enough manufacturing capacity in the world to quickly produce enough for the whole world in any kind of a reasonable time frame? Obviously any quantity is possible given enough time, but you can't stand up a new factory overnight.



controller1 said:


> When you look at the above sentence it is quite ironic for Hawaii and other tourist-heavy economies. A normal basic life or even a semi-normal basic life in Hawaii is one dominated by tourism which is the economic driver. Something like which comes first, the chicken or the egg...



And that is the irony of the situation we find ourselves in. Very much a chicken or the egg scenario. There has also always been a love-hate relationship in tourist areas between locals and tourists. The locals love the economic impact of the tourists, but don't like the traffic, congestion, competition for resources, etc. On Hilton Head Island in SC, vocal locals there have been demanding that the town council not only ban short-term rentals, but also have asked them to ban non-full-time-resident property owners from using their second homes until there is a tested and proven vaccine. They've also asked that the single bridge onto the island be closed to non-full-time residents, allowing only full-time residents and workers on the island until further notice. So far the town council has followed the lead of the governor and has not implemented the more stringent restrictions, but the locals there are in an uproar and have resorted to putting nasty notes and threats on cars with out-of-state license plates.


----------



## bnoble (Apr 13, 2020)

controller1 said:


> Something like which comes first, the chicken or the egg...


I'm not sure it is so intractable. Dead people can't benefit from tourism income.


----------



## csodjd (Apr 13, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> I think, in concept, that approach could work, but there would seem to be two big challenges - throughput and availability of tests. The time it would take to administer these tests to a plane load of people (or a 70k seat stadium or Disney) would be more than anything experienced in most customs environments. Just the lines it could create could become a virus spread risk. There is also the elephant in the room with this whole "massively expanded testing" approach - with literally every country in the world trying to surge the availability of testing to allow some return of their economies, do we have enough manufacturing capacity in the world to quickly produce enough for the whole world in any kind of a reasonable time frame? Obviously any quantity is possible given enough time, but you can't stand up a new factory overnight.


It's always relatively easy to say why something won't work, but progress occurs when people say how they will make something work. Yes, it would take time. Arrive at the airport early. Arrive too late to get tested, you don't go. Problem solved. 

Massively expanded testing is a precondition to any low-risk recovery and reopening. Each country needs to take responsibility for making tests for their people. Do we have enough manufacturing capacity? If not, create more. We'll need it whether it is the NFL, Disney, Hawaii, Las Vegas, or your hair salon. Some said you can't make a hospital virtually overnight. Apparently you can. Make enough tests and we won't need all those people making respirators.


----------



## JIMinNC (Apr 13, 2020)

csodjd said:


> It's always relatively easy to say why something won't work, but progress occurs when people say how they will make something work. Yes, it would take time. Arrive at the airport early. Arrive too late to get tested, you don't go. Problem solved.
> 
> Massively expanded testing is a precondition to any low-risk recovery and reopening. Each country needs to take responsibility for making tests for their people. Do we have enough manufacturing capacity? If not, create more. We'll need it whether it is the NFL, Disney, Hawaii, Las Vegas, or your hair salon. Some said you can't make a hospital virtually overnight. Apparently you can. Make enough tests and we won't need all those people making respirators.



I absolutely agree it can be done, my main question is how long will it take? - both for prescreening before entry/flight and manufacturing the capacity to do that.

Would you have to arrive at the airport two or three hours earlier than we have in the past? - meaning arrive 4-5 hours before flight? Would it take 3-4 hours to enter a stadium? How long will it take to increase the test manufacturing capacity? Months? Years? I have no idea for any of that, it just seems like an enormous challenge to do rapidly.


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## csodjd (Apr 13, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> I absolutely agree it can be done, my main question is how long will it take? - both for prescreening before entry/flight and manufacturing the capacity to do that.
> 
> Would you have to arrive at the airport two or three hours earlier than we have in the past? - meaning arrive 4-5 hours before flight? Would it take 3-4 hours to enter a stadium? How long will it take to increase the test manufacturing capacity? Months? Years? I have no idea for any of that, it just seems like an enormous challenge to do rapidly.


It might be. But alternatives? Have to start somewhere. It may be a royal PIA initially, and gradually get better. But it is -A- way to get open safely. Football games? Maybe limit to only 10,000 fans initially. 

I know this. If I'm sitting on an airplane I'd like to know the people sitting behind me and on my row were tested and are either immune or proven not currently infected. Add a face covering and it's probably reasonably safe.


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## NTP66 (Apr 13, 2020)

Royal PITA beats rolling the dice and doing nothing, for me. I’m willing to do whatever it takes.


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## Kapolei (Apr 13, 2020)

Any extended restrictions on arrivals will affect Hawaii residents equally.  We are not going to be able to go anywhere without going through the same restrictions as everyone else when we return.


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## csodjd (Apr 13, 2020)

Kapolei said:


> Any extended restrictions on arrivals will affect Hawaii residents equally.  We are not going to be able to go anywhere without going through the same restrictions as everyone else when we return.


Yes. Anyone can bring the virus back to the islands. So, everyone heading into Hawaii needs to be virus free. That's why the place to test is before boarding a flight headed to Hawaii. Though, if you are a resident at least you have a place/home where you can quarantine for two weeks.


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## Kapolei (Apr 13, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Yes. Anyone can bring the virus back to the islands. So, everyone heading into Hawaii needs to be virus free. That's why the place to test is before boarding a flight headed to Hawaii. Though, if you are a resident *at least you have a place/home where you can quarantine for two weeks.*



This is true.  But that won't help much if you have a office to go to upon return.


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## Fredflintstone (Apr 13, 2020)

You may be right about pre screen tests. Boy, would that slow things down. It would deter people from travelling in the first place. Too much hassle. Maybe we return to car travel and avoid islands where a plane is required? 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Kapolei (Apr 14, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> You may be right about pre screen tests. Boy, would that slow things down. It would deter people from travelling in the first place. Too much hassle. Maybe we return to car travel and avoid islands where a plane is required?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



There are lot of different types of travelers.  The person in Canada who comes to Hawaii every January for several weeks is not likely to be deterred.  If Hawaii ends up being safer than most destinations that will be a highly marketable feature.  Remember, Hawaii’s original charm came from being a place that wasn’t easy to get too.


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## JIMinNC (Apr 14, 2020)

csodjd said:


> It might be. But alternatives? Have to start somewhere. It may be a royal PIA initially, and gradually get better. But it is -A- way to get open safely. Football games? Maybe limit to only 10,000 fans initially.
> 
> I know this. If I'm sitting on an airplane I'd like to know the people sitting behind me and on my row were tested and are either immune or proven not currently infected. Add a face covering and it's probably reasonably safe.



Interestingly, NBC News just did an interview with the CDC Director, Dr. Robert Redfield, talking about the topic of antibody testing we've been discussing. They didn't talk about travel screening, but the interview does give a lot of insight into how they see the tests being used over the next year or so.

NBC Interview with Dr. Robert Redfield

Sounds like for the next year or so, they see it primarily as a way to screen healthcare workers for possible immunity and to help employers structure their workforce to get basic production restarted in the months ahead. Also he seemed to allude to some statistical serology studies across the population over the next year to try to get a feel for the breadth of the spread that may have been undetected. To my read, it doesn't sound like screening travelers is likely to be a high priority for the available tests. I've included the link above, but here are a couple key quotes:

*NBC News:* Is there anything to antibody testing on an individual level? For those who want to go get that test to know if they can go back to work, is there any benefit to the individual? Or is antibody testing just a broad public health benefit?

*Redfield: *In certain circumstances it can have a benefit to the individual, for example, health care workers. It may help hospitals, if they look at the next wave, which I believe we will have in late fall or winter, they may be able to identify a group of health care professionals that are no longer likely to be susceptible. That may have impact on how the health care system can take care of coronavirus-specific individuals. I suspect hospitals will begin to look at having coronavirus-specific areas, if not hospitals, for next year. And coronavirus-specific nursing homes. It would obviously be useful in nursing homes to have health care professionals who are immune.

I think there is this assumption that it may accelerate confidence in some individuals in returning [to work] as though I'm immune, but I really think its major role is going to be in more of a public health role and the impact that it has, as we try to develop some alternative care delivery mechanisms to be available for fall and winter, when in fact we will probably have additional coronavirus infections.

*NBC News: *What's your prediction for when might we expect accurate large-scale antibody testing?

*Redfield:* I think the serology surveys are going to give us a better understanding of the differential disease penetration that occurred in different populations. For example, in younger individuals versus older individuals and individuals with pre-existing conditions, those without them. We'll have all of that crystallized, I think pretty well, over the next several months.

But that still won't answer the key question you asked me: Is the immune response protective or not? I think that's going to take us, pretty much, through the next year to be able to understand what the protection is, and how long we can see that last will probably take years for that to happen. The first serology tests have already been approved by the FDA. There's a number of other tests that are available, that are being validated. I think we'll see more large company serology tests be available in the weeks ahead.

Then it will just depend on what is really the strategic way that this test should be used. I think you will see it used in certain circumstances to help certain companies make decisions about back to work, particularly in the critical infrastructure. We really want to have a critical workforce that is going to be potentially immune to this same situation that is very likely. The virus is very likely to come back very significantly in the next coronavirus season, which will happen next December, January, February. I think that we will be much more prepared for it as it comes back a second time.

*NBC News: *So would the antibody tests be reserved for people like our health care workers who might need it most?

*Redfield:* I think the availability of the test for antibodies will become quite available.There will be employers that will want to have some knowledge, as they plan for 2021. It's definitely going to be aggressively employed in public health so we can do public health planning. But I do think it will be available for individual doctors and individual people to make a judgment about whether they want to know their antibody status.


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## csodjd (Apr 14, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> Sounds like for the next year or so, they see it primarily as a way to screen healthcare workers for possible immunity and to help employers structure their workforce to get basic production restarted in the months ahead. Also he seemed to allude to some statistical serology studies across the population over the next year to try to get a feel for the breadth of the spread that may have been undetected. To my read, it doesn't sound like screening travelers is likely to be a high priority for the available tests. I've included the link above, but here are a couple key quotes:


It may not be articulated, but it remains essential to travel by air or train, and to the financial recovery of airlines and tourism -- which is a major industry, not a trivial side show. Nevada, Hawaii, Florida, New York, these states (among others) need air, need travel, need tourism.


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## csodjd (Apr 14, 2020)

Apparently I'm not alone in my thinking. The Lt. Gov. of Hawaii says if you don't show antibodies you may need to show you don't have the virus based on a test within 48 hours of departure and that this may be the key to reopening tourism in Hawaii. 









						Antibody testing may play key role in reopening tourism to Hawaii
					

A new blood test that reveals who’s immune to the coronavirus will likely play a key role in the state’s plan to allow visitors to return to Hawaii.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


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## JIMinNC (Apr 14, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Apparently I'm not alone in my thinking. The Lt. Gov. of Hawaii says if you don't show antibodies you may need to show you don't have the virus based on a test within 48 hours of departure and that this may be the key to reopening tourism in Hawaii.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Interesting. For such an approach to work for discretionary travel, both types of testing (virus testing and antibody) would seem to have to be readily available to anyone on fairly short notice. Hard to see that happening any time soon based on where we are now. We have come a long way on testing, but still a long, long way to go to be able to scale to where you could go to any local CVS or Walgreens and get a test. It would seem that kind of ubiquitous availability would be a prerequisite for a discretionary use like travel.


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## csodjd (Apr 14, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> Interesting. For such an approach to work for discretionary travel, both types of testing (virus testing and antibody) would seem to have to be readily available to anyone on fairly short notice. Hard to see that happening any time soon based on where we are now. We have come a long way on testing, but still a long, long way to go to be able to scale to where you could go to any local CVS or Walgreens and get a test. It would seem that kind of ubiquitous availability would be a prerequisite for a discretionary use like travel.


Yes, pretty much. I can imagine an antibody test working much like an at-home pregnancy test. Tests for virus are more complex because a swab will always be needed to get "up to date" infection data (it can take days before it shows up in blood) so that requires a more skilled person to get a reliable test. 

Nonetheless, it seems that's what's going to be needed before a place like Hawaii can safely reopen to tourists.


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## cali-gal (Apr 15, 2020)

Kapolei said:


> Excellent job by their management and their PR department for letting us know what is happening.  Makes the customer feel safe and connected to their operations.


Except they are lying to their customers about their flights still operating.  They aren't and won't be in the short term, but they aren't willing to give customers their money back. That doesn't make me feel very connected,  just upset and frustrated.


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## NTP66 (Apr 15, 2020)

cali-gal said:


> They aren't and won't be in the short term, but they aren't willing to give customers their money back. That doesn't make me feel very connected, just upset and frustrated.


They're not the only ones doing that, which is why the DOT had to order airlines to pay full cash refunds to those affected.


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## csodjd (Apr 17, 2020)

Univ of Washington's new projections just came out, and they now include an important new data point, one that bodes very well for Hawaii. Here is the new graph:





Note the new section, "Containment Strategy." And the comment that in Hawaii it can begin after May 4. Moving into a containment strategy is a huge move toward being able to open up. It means they feel Hawaii can contain anyone infected and prevent spread. 

Now they need to be able to apply that to tourists. That's where I say they should require a test for active infection before boarding a flight. Mixture of on-the-island containment with _Emirates_ Airline testing strategy.


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## pedro47 (Apr 18, 2020)

Tourism around the world will take years to return at the level of  2018-2019 in the cruise industry,  hospitality industry and the entertainment  industries including Disney and Universal theme parks.

Now in the professional sport arena & the colleges arena : liked the NFL, NBA, MBL and the NCAA football and basketball they are safe. After one month, fans will return /folk to their pro and college stadiums.

However, if a second round of the coronavirus should kicked up. We are in big trouble in tourism and everything else. IMHO.


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## burg1121 (Apr 18, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> However, if a second round of the coronavirus should kicked up. We are in big trouble in tourism and everything else. IMHO



Don't think it's if but when maybe it never leaves. This is the new normal. We will adjust and travel regardless. Read the new Stanford University study on how many of us probably have it.








						Stanford antibody study estimates COVID-19 infected 50 to 85 times more people than testing identified in Santa Clara County
					

In the weeks since the coronavirus outbreak has squelched daily life in America, researchers have struggled to assess the true spread of the virus. But initial results from a Northern California st…




					ktla.com


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## csodjd (Apr 18, 2020)

burg1121 said:


> Don't think it's if but when maybe it never leaves. This is the new normal. We will adjust and travel regardless. Read the new Stanford University study on how many of us probably have it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting study, but take it with at least one grain of salt. The group tested were responding to an ad asking for people to be tested. So, it was not a random sample. The sample self-selected. That means a likely inherent bias. People that were sick and wonder if that sickness was COVID, for instance, would be more likely to volunteer to be tested than someone that's not been sick. So, even the authors caution that that's a flaw in the study that may have resulted in a higher positive than a random selection would have generated. Of course, it's also one community, and the nature of any highly contagious infection is community spread. So by itself it doesn't tell us much about a different community. We'll get that when other communities do the same study and see if they get the same results, with the ultimate testing being random so that the tested group is a true random cross-section of the community being tested.


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## JIMinNC (Apr 18, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Now in the professional sport arena & the colleges arena : liked the NFL, NBA, MBL and the NCAA football and basketball they are safe. After one month, fans will return /folk to their pro and college stadiums.



I personally think stadiums full of people for sports or concerts will be one of the last things to be allowed to come back. I suspect NBA, MLB, NFL, and maybe NCAA will follow the lead of the PGA and play at some point for TV only, without fans.


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## burg1121 (Apr 18, 2020)

Personally I take just about everything about this with a grain of salt. Every day it seems like what was true yesterday has changed today. None of the data is correct until you have an accurate count on who was infected. Without knowing that everything else is flawed. But life will be back.


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## csodjd (Apr 19, 2020)

burg1121 said:


> Personally I take just about everything about this with a grain of salt. Every day it seems like what was true yesterday has changed today. None of the data is correct until you have an accurate count on who was infected. Without knowing that everything else is flawed. But life will be back.


As they are fond of saying, all models are wrong, but some are helpful.


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## burg1121 (Apr 19, 2020)

How true.


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## Rjbeach2003 (Apr 19, 2020)

Simply put we can't relax until there is a vaccine.  In the meantime, in order to resume some semblance of normalcy, we need widespread testing, far more than the 11000/1,000,00 of today and anit-body testing.  Until then it's a crap shoot.


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## PigsDad (Apr 19, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> Simply put we can't relax until there is a vaccine.


Simply put, if we can't relax orders until there is a vaccine in 1-2 years, there will be nothing left for us to return to.  

Kurt


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## csodjd (Apr 19, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Simply put, if we can't relax orders until there is a vaccine in 1-2 years, there will be nothing left for us to return to.
> 
> Kurt


Ventura County, which is immediately north of Los Angeles, just revised their Public Health Order to allow golf courses to open, subject to a bunch of rules. No carts. No pins. Cups inverted or otherwise designed to not require hands to enter the cup. Six-feet between players. Etc. 

We are hoping the pin issue can be addressed like this:


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## Luanne (Apr 19, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Simply put, if we can't relax orders until there is a vaccine in 1-2 years, there will be nothing left for us to return to.
> 
> Kurt


There is a difference between what @Rjbeach2003 said "Simply put we can't relax until there is a vaccine." and what you said.  Relaxing and relaxing order are different, at least the way I read it.  I may not be personally able to relax until there is a vaccine in place, but that doesn't mean that our governor can't relax the orders currently in place, once there is more testing available. Once again it goes back to what we are personally comfortable with and where we are (not physically but mentally, health wise, etc.)


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## burg1121 (Apr 20, 2020)

We need to protect the vulnerable and let the rest of the country get back to work. If you have to wait 1 to 2 years civil unrest will make the virus seem like the flu. Desperate people tend to do desperate things.


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## csodjd (Apr 20, 2020)

burg1121 said:


> We need to protect the vulnerable and let the rest of the country get back to work. If you have to wait 1 to 2 years civil unrest will make the virus seem like the flu. Desperate people tend to do desperate things.


I agree, with a caveat. That caveat is that before the country goes back to work, we have to have the ability to test, trace, and isolate new infections so that we don't create uncontrolled community spread a second time. If you're feeling sick you get tested. If you are positive you are contact traced and anyone testing positive is also isolated and their contacts are traced. Repeat. That ends that outbreak in its tracks, and allows us to go on. It is fundamental epidemiology. It is what public health departments do with sexually transmitted disease all the time, just on a bigger scale.


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## Tamaradarann (Apr 20, 2020)

csodjd said:


> I agree, with a caveat. That caveat is that before the country goes back to work, we have to have the ability to test, trace, and isolate new infections so that we don't create uncontrolled community spread a second time. If you're feeling sick you get tested. If you are positive you are contact traced and anyone testing positive is also isolated and their contacts are traced. Repeat. That ends that outbreak in its tracks, and allows us to go on. It is fundamental epidemiology. It is what public health departments do with sexually transmitted disease all the time, just on a bigger scale.



I agree with this in theory.  In practice I have concerns with the application.  Statements by health authorities going back to the beginning of the spread of the virus emphasized that elderly and those with respirator conditions are the most vulnerable.  While that is true, it gave the younger more healthy individuals the feeling that they didn't need to worry about the serverity of this virus.   They thought that even if that got the virus the symtoms would be mild.  Many of those people continued to socialize, not wearing masks or gloves, not worry about washing their hands or using disinfectants all the time like the elderly and most vulnerable did.   I believe that this type of impression allowed the virus to spread more in the US than in China and Korea which probably didn't give the younger good health people a "pass".  I  still see information on TV that the elderly and those with respirator or heart conditions need to take precautions and stay away from other people and wash their hands frequently to stay safe.  

If things are opened up those younger and in good health will most probably go back to socializing and conducting their lives like before the virus started to spread.  If the do get infected they may have mild symtoms and not get tested but could infect others.  Therefore, the others that they infect will not be traced.  So they will infect others and the virus will spread.


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## csodjd (Apr 20, 2020)

So here is some data JUST released out of a USC/Los Angeles study. They tested about 863 adults using a highly accurate antibody serology test. It was a fairly random sample except that the sample was adjusted to match the demographics of Los Angeles County in terms of race and ethnicity. Currently LA County reports about 14,000 cases.

The study shows 4.1% tested positive for COVID antibodies. MOE about +/-1%. About 6% male, 2% female. This equates to about 300,000 adults, about 35x the currently reported LA total (which tests for active infection), have been exposed to or had the virus. Many reported symptoms in the study, but they cannot opine on whether those symptoms were from COVID or not since it could have been a cold, flu, etc., no way to know.

Early conclusions are that the mortality rate is notably lower than presumed, and about 96% of adults are still vulnerable (without opining on whether the 4% is immune or not). Any hope that there is a level of herd immunity is wishful thinking and there is still a good sized risk of resurgence of we pull back too soon.

P.S. Georgia just announced they are pulling back almost all restrictions. Restaurants, tattoo, message parlors, hair and nail, gyms, bowling allies, etc, all opening in Georgia on Friday and the Governor said local ordinances cannot block the openings. I guess now we have a living LAB to see what happens if/when you remove restrictions.


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## Tamaradarann (Apr 20, 2020)

csodjd said:


> So here is some data JUST released out of a USC/Los Angeles study. They tested about 863 adults using a highly accurate antibody serology test. It was a fairly random sample except that the sample was adjusted to match the demographics of Los Angeles County in terms of race and ethnicity. Currently LA County reports about 14,000 cases.
> 
> The study shows 4.1% tested positive for COVID antibodies. MOE about +/-1%. About 6% male, 2% female. This equates to about 300,000 adults, about 35x the currently reported LA total (which tests for active infection), have been exposed to or had the virus. Many reported symptoms in the study, but they cannot opine on whether those symptoms were from COVID or not since it could have been a cold, flu, etc., no way to know.
> 
> ...


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## MrockStar (Apr 20, 2020)

Sweedon





csodjd said:


> So here is some data JUST released out of a USC/Los Angeles study. They tested about 863 adults using a highly accurate antibody serology test. It was a fairly random sample except that the sample was adjusted to match the demographics of Los Angeles County in terms of race and ethnicity. Currently LA County reports about 14,000 cases.
> 
> The study shows 4.1% tested positive for COVID antibodies. MOE about +/-1%. About 6% male, 2% female. This equates to about 300,000 adults, about 35x the currently reported LA total (which tests for active infection), have been exposed to or had the virus. Many reported symptoms in the study, but they cannot opine on whether those symptoms were from COVID or not since it could have been a cold, flu, etc., no way to know.
> 
> ...


Sweden is a much larger living Lab and will produce a lot of very important and valuable data for world scientists.


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## csodjd (Apr 20, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Sweedon
> Sweden is a much larger living Lab and will produce a lot of very important and valuable data for world scientists.


Maybe. But maybe not. The two neighbors honkered down hard and early (Norway and Finland). That may offer Sweden a measure of help. Also, geography plays a role, as does the number of people bringing infection into the community. All of that to say that communities and countries can differ considerably. 

It will be interesting to watch and see what happens in Georgia 2-4 weeks from today. Will they have a big spike? Epidemiology would say yes.


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## csodjd (Apr 20, 2020)

Tamaradarann said:


> I read the information you reported from the USC/LA study with interest.  The fact that the mortality rate is much lower than presumed is great news for all.  Furhtermore, since NY State has had so many reported cases if 35X the number reported can be projected then a great number of New Yorkers could have the antibodies which is great news for where we live when they open up New York State


They said this about the mortality rate. Classic double edged sword. On one hand, rate as a percentage is lower. On the other hand, a lot of people have died with only a 4% infection rate, which means if that rate reaches 40% you're looking at 10x the number of fatalities we have now. I think they would have preferred to find 10 or 15% antibody positive. 

NY needs a similar study done. Things like the NY mass transit system may have led to a much higher contagion rate and maybe they get to 10%. Don't know until it is studied.


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## Tamaradarann (Apr 20, 2020)

csodjd said:


> They said this about the mortality rate. Classic double edged sword. On one hand, rate as a percentage is lower. On the other hand, a lot of people have died with only a 4% infection rate, which means if that rate reaches 40% you're looking at 10x the number of fatalities we have now. I think they would have preferred to find 10 or 15% antibody positive.
> 
> NY needs a similar study done. Things like the NY mass transit system may have led to a much higher contagion rate and maybe they get to 10%. Don't know until it is studied.



So LA County has around about 14,000 confirmed cases and around 700 deaths for approximately a 5% death rate which is pretty high.  Since the study showed a 4% infection rate which calculates out to about 300,000 people have been really infected the death rate is about .25% which is much lower and much better.  If the infection rate does reach 40% that would mean about 7000 deaths which is certainly not desirable.  Therefore, a certain degree of social distancing until a vacine is developed would be prudent.

NY City has about 140,000 confirmed cases and about 10,000 deaths which is a high 7% death rate.  However, if the actual number of people who have been infected is 35X confirmed cases as LA then about 50% of all New Yorkers have been infected.


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## csodjd (Apr 21, 2020)

Tamaradarann said:


> So LA County has around about 14,000 confirmed cases and around 700 deaths for approximately a 5% death rate which is pretty high.  Since the study showed a 4% infection rate which calculates out to about 300,000 people have been really infected the death rate is about .25% which is much lower and much better.  If the infection rate does reach 40% that would mean about 7000 deaths which is certainly not desirable.  Therefore, a certain degree of social distancing until a vacine is developed would be prudent.
> 
> NY City has about 140,000 confirmed cases and about 10,000 deaths which is a high 7% death rate.  However, if the actual number of people who have been infected is 35X confirmed cases as LA then about 50% of all New Yorkers have been infected.


Death rates, especially where numbers are smaller, can be very misleading. Get one or two bad retirement homes and you can throw the curve terribly. For instance, if you look at Hawaii's recent new case numbers it can look bad, but if you recognize that there were two large outbreaks, the McDonalds on the big Island and the hospital (of all places) in Maui, you realize that without those, almost no new cases in Hawaii in a week or so. 

My guess is NY, because of factors like the transit system, and elevators, probably has a notably higher infection rate than more dispersed, drive yourself everywhere, Los Angeles. I'm not sure you can extrapolate Los Angeles to NY. Very different landscapes in terms of disease transmission. The NY subways were like sitting in a petri dish.


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## Tamaradarann (Apr 21, 2020)

I totally agree that New York has a much higher infection rate!  If the numbers that I threw out are correct the 50% of all New Yorkers having been infected is a very high infection rate and would translate to about 4 million people in NYC.  That being said:  In February when I was in Hawaii I had a bad cough, which I usual do get with a cold.  I went to the Straub Clinic but was NOT tested for the virus.  They prescribed an antibiotic and cough medicine and I recovered in about a week and stopped coughing.  Could I have had the virus?  If in fact the number of people with the antibodies is 35X those that have been tested and are positive then perhaps alot of people have had a very mild case of the virus and have the antibodies.  To me that is very good news.


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## csodjd (Apr 21, 2020)

Tamaradarann said:


> I totally agree that New York has a much higher infection rate!  If the numbers that I threw out are correct the 50% of all New Yorkers having been infected is a very high infection rate and would translate to about 4 million people in NYC.  That being said:  In February when I was in Hawaii I had a bad cough, which I usual do get with a cold.  I went to the Straub Clinic but was NOT tested for the virus.  They prescribed an antibiotic and cough medicine and I recovered in about a week and stopped coughing.  Could I have had the virus?  If in fact the number of people with the antibodies is 35X those that have been tested and are positive then perhaps alot of people have had a very mild case of the virus and have the antibodies.  To me that is very good news.


The more people that HAVE the antibodies, the better it is, to be sure. Having antibodies is the clinical equivalent of sheltering in place or being vaccinated. You can't get it and you can't give it to anyone. (Assuming there is immunity for at least a period of time, as there likely is.) But the Los Angeles study suggests that about 95-96% do NOT have antibodies. So there is a long way to go.


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## burg1121 (Apr 21, 2020)

First off they don't know the severity of the virus. I think it's interesting that so many decisions are made on incomplete data. The country of Sweden didn't close down and they aren't all dying in the streets. At some point the public will realize our government officials are still bound by bill of rights and the constitution.


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## Luanne (Apr 21, 2020)

burg1121 said:


> First off they don't know the severity of the virus. I think it's interesting that so many decisions are made on incomplete data. The country of Sweden didn't close down and they aren't all dying in the streets. At some point the public will realize our government officials are still bound by bill of rights and the constitution.


Sweden may not be doing as well as you think.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handled-coronavirus-differently-2020-4


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## csodjd (Apr 21, 2020)

burg1121 said:


> First off they don't know the severity of the virus. I think it's interesting that so many decisions are made on incomplete data. The country of Sweden didn't close down and they aren't all dying in the streets. At some point the public will realize our government officials are still bound by bill of rights and the constitution.


What role or even duty does the government have in protecting the health and safety of the American people from an epidemic? 

It is instructional to compare Sweden to Finland, neighbors of about the same populations. SO FAR, about 1600 deaths in Sweden and 100 in Finland. Assume for every death there are likely a handful of people that were very sick, survived, but will experience significant morbidity as a result (damage to lungs, heart, psychy, etc.). 

Also, be mindful that Sweden has not peaked according to the latest models, and is looking at this. Note the shortage of beds and ICU beds expected in the next week or so. One might say that it is interesting how many opinions are formed on incomplete data.


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## JIMinNC (Apr 21, 2020)

csodjd said:


> What role or even duty does the government have in protecting the health and safety of the American people from an epidemic?
> 
> It is instructional to compare Sweden to Finland, neighbors of about the same populations. SO FAR, about 1600 deaths in Sweden and 100 in Finland. Assume for every death there are likely a handful of people that were very sick, survived, but will experience significant morbidity as a result (damage to lungs, heart, psychy, etc.).
> 
> ...



Those available bed and available ICU numbers seem really low for the *entire country* of Sweden. That can't be right. Sweden has 10 million people.


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## csodjd (Apr 21, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> Those available bed and available ICU numbers seem really low for the *entire country* of Sweden. That can't be right. Sweden has 10 million people.


Well, do remember that COVID doesn't stop all the other things that put people in the hospital. Those numbers take into account all possible beds less all beds in use from all causes, including COVID. There's no reason to believe their factual data is wrong. The Worldometer says they have 13000 "active" cases right now. No doubt many are filling hospital beds and that's over and above normal levels.


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## JIMinNC (Apr 21, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Well, do remember that COVID doesn't stop all the other things that put people in the hospital. Those numbers take into account all possible beds less all beds in use from all causes, including COVID. There's no reason to believe their factual data is wrong. The Worldometer says they have 13000 "active" cases right now. No doubt many are filling hospital beds and that's over and above normal levels.



Yeah, you're right, I just looked at their FAQs and they confirmed that is beds *estimated* *available* for COVID after considering other hospitalizations. But they also say they do not update these counts in real time and they are a point in time estimate and do not reflect current conditions on the ground. I haven't seen any reporting that their hospitals are yet being over loaded, but their approach certainly offers a laboratory into what would happen if economic considerations are weighed more heavily than they are being weighed in most the rest of the world. It's a risky approach, but if their case-counts do start to drop over the next 2-3 weeks and they don't overload their system, they may look like geniuses. If things blow up there, then they'll look like fools.


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## lynne (Apr 21, 2020)

Don't expect the airlines to resume flights to the islands anytime soon.   I am sure the other airlines currently flying here will also request route cuts.  DOT is allowing these cuts through September of this year.









						Why DOT Just Approved Major Route Cuts For Alaska and Hawaiian
					

Major change from DOT to impact Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines Hawaii flights, perhaps others.



					beatofhawaii.com


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## Tamaradarann (Apr 21, 2020)

csodjd said:


> The more people that HAVE the antibodies, the better it is, to be sure. Having antibodies is the clinical equivalent of sheltering in place or being vaccinated. You can't get it and you can't give it to anyone. (Assuming there is immunity for at least a period of time, as there likely is.) But the Los Angeles study suggests that about 95-96% do NOT have antibodies. So there is a long way to go.



However, since New York has had so many more cases most probably many more people do have antibodies.  In fact, as contray as it may seem this summer when the projections of the Univesity of Washington say that the hospitalizations will be close to zero all over the United States if Hawaii opens up for visitors those from New York will be the safest to allow to come.


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## MrockStar (Apr 21, 2020)

JIMinNC said:


> Yeah, you're right, I just looked at their FAQs and they confirmed that is beds *estimated* *available* for COVID after considering other hospitalizations. But they also say they do not update these counts in real time and they are a point in time estimate and do not reflect current conditions on the ground. I haven't seen any reporting that their hospitals are yet being over loaded, but their approach certainly offers a laboratory into what would happen if economic considerations are weighed more heavily than they are being weighed in most the rest of the world. It's a risky approach, but if their case-counts do start to drop over the next 2-3 weeks and they don't overload their system, they may look like geniuses. If things blow up there, then they'll look like fools.


Two weeks notice !!!


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## csodjd (Apr 21, 2020)

Tamaradarann said:


> However, since New York has had so many more cases most probably many more people do have antibodies.  In fact, as contray as it may seem this summer when the projections of the Univesity of Washington say that the hospitalizations will be close to zero all over the United States if Hawaii opens up for visitors those from New York will be the safest to allow to come.


Maybe? But they'd also be most likely to be infected and asymptomatic.


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## Tamaradarann (Apr 22, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Maybe? But they'd also be most likely to be infected and asymptomatic.


That could be possible and likely right now.  However, if the hospitalizations are down to zero that would mean that the virus is not in the community spread phase and is not actively being circulated like right now.   If additional safety was desired a quick exam going over whether the passenger had the disease and if not do they have symptoms right now.  If the passenger wasn't already confirmed to have the disease a corona virus test could be required but I believe that the results take longer to obtain and would need to be previously done.


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## csodjd (Apr 22, 2020)

Tamaradarann said:


> That could be possible and likely right now.  However, if the hospitalizations are down to zero that would mean that the virus is not in the community spread phase and is not actively being circulated like right now.   If additional safety was desired a quick exam going over whether the passenger had the disease and if not do they have symptoms right now.  If the passenger wasn't already confirmed to have the disease a corona virus test could be required but I believe that the results take longer to obtain and would need to be previously done.


I think the concept will be, if someone gets sick in Hawaii, they'll be able to rapidly test them. If positive, they'll be able to contract trace and test everyone they were in pretty close contact with and isolate those people. 

The primary risk will not be community spread, it will be that we'll go to Hawaii, come into contact with someone, get infected, and end up in quarantine for our trip (and even unable to leave and incur costs, hassles, etc., if we get sick). That risk can be minimized if you are positive for antibodies, or if they do testing for infection before flying to Hawaii or immediately upon arrival.


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## Tamaradarann (Apr 22, 2020)

csodjd said:


> I think the concept will be, if someone gets sick in Hawaii, they'll be able to rapidly test them. If positive, they'll be able to contract trace and test everyone they were in pretty close contact with and isolate those people.
> 
> The primary risk will not be community spread, it will be that we'll go to Hawaii, come into contact with someone, get infected, and end up in quarantine for our trip (and even unable to leave and incur costs, hassles, etc., if we get sick). That risk can be minimized if you are positive for antibodies, or if they do testing for infection before flying to Hawaii or immediately upon arrival.



My comment about community spread not being a concern was with respect to the safety for Hawaii of letting in perspective travellers Hawaii from New York to Hawaii if hospitalizations were zero or close to zero in New York.  In view of the study done by USC/LA that found that many people have been exposed and have had the disease without significant symptoms waiting to test people who are sick with signifant symptoms may not prevent the spread of this disease.


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