# Asking the Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?



## TravelTime (Mar 16, 2020)

Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus? (Published 2020)
					

With “social distancing” now widely adopted nationwide, a small group of contrarians urge a more careful weighing of the harm as well as the benefits of such policies.




					www.nytimes.com


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## needvaca (Mar 16, 2020)

don't know, but is it better to be underprepared or overprepared?  
I always err on the side of overprepared- in life, work, etc.    works pretty well for me.


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## clifffaith (Mar 16, 2020)

Would be great if the answer is Yes, we did over react. Good practice for next time.


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## WinniWoman (Mar 16, 2020)

I lean towards the government has not leveled with the American people. My nurse friend said it is not true that healthy people without preexisting conditions cannot get seriously sick. She is seeing it first hand.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 16, 2020)

clifffaith said:


> Would be great if the answer is Yes, we did over react. Good practice for next time.


The problem is we won't know the answer until after the fact....


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 16, 2020)

I agree with @clifffaith

Money lost in the stock market won't matter if you are dead.

If we over-react, there is potential to eradicate or minimize the virus, then we will get out of this sooner.


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## Sea Six (Mar 16, 2020)

When I hear about what is happening in Italy and some other places, I don't think we are overreacting.  The HOARDERS are, but shame on them.  I heard the current obituary in one Italian city was 10 pages long.


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## JanT (Mar 16, 2020)

I don't know if the government is leveling with the American people or not.  What I do know is there are two articles addressing this issue in the news this morning.  I'm taking this seriously. 

In 2011, my 32 year old extremely healthy daughter contracted H1N1.  She went from healthy to being placed in a medically induced coma and on a ventilator because she could no longer breath on her own within 24 hours.  She was in ICU for 11 days on life support and 7 additional days in a regular room.  She recovered only through the grace of God and the many, many prayers said on her behalf, including prayers from so many here on TUG (I will FOREVER be grateful to those of you who prayed so fervently for her).  I will never, ever forget the horror I felt as I watched 3 other families grapple with the deaths of their loved ones from the same virus - a 26 year old, a 40 year old, and a 55 year old.  My own precious daughter fought for her life.  She did recover and has had no further illness but her doctors then told her if she ever even got so much as a sniffle that she is to get herself into a doctor immediately and inform them of what happened to her and to get started on a course of antibiotics.  I am really scared for her with this current virus.  She is taking precautions, of course but she works in the public and I pray every day that she won't be infected.  

I hope that others will take this situation seriously and recognize that even if they aren't sick, they might be carriers and someone as vulnerable as my daughter could become sick if they come in contact with her. We shouldn't panic but we have to take this seriously.









						About half of France's coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 65, health official says
					

A French health official says warnings to stay home in the coronavirus pandemic are in some cases falling on deaf ears while noting that the virus hasn't just been posing a risk to seniors.French health ministry official Jérôme Salomon said Monday that the situation is "deteriorating very...




					www.yahoo.com
				












						Some coronavirus patients are young with no underlying conditions: California doctor
					

A doctor in California says he is treating two coronavirus patients in intensive care units who are as young as 40 years old and do not have underlying conditions.




					finance.yahoo.com
				






WinniWoman said:


> I lean towards the government has not leveled with the American people. My nurse freind said it is not true that healthy people without preexisting conditions cannot get seriously sick. She is seeing it first hand.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 16, 2020)

From my perspective,  this is an issue where federal intervention needs to be at a minimum because this is NOT a one size fits all states solution. 
Governors need to lead their individual states and make clear what they need from the federal level.  In turn, the federal level needs to support the states as much as it can through out the duration of this virus. 

There are already many politicians continuing to operate in the bash the other party mode.  I hope those who do that are remembered come election time regardless of their party affiliation. 

This is one of those times when politicians need to lead instead of continuing with political business as usual.  I hope we see an increasing number of positive examples from all levels of government.


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## stmartinfan (Mar 16, 2020)

After listening to NY Gov. Cuomo's press conference today, I don't think we are over reacting.  They have been running projections based on the timing in Italy and if we don't slow down infections immediately and start getting emergency hospital beds ready now, we will be overwhelmed like Italy in a short time.  He was factual and thoughtful, but it's a grim picture if we can't slow the spread. Without more testing we don't really know how widespread it is.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 16, 2020)

Sea Six said:


> When I hear about what is happening in Italy and some other places, I don't think we are overreacting.  The HOARDERS are, but shame on them.  I heard the current obituary in one Italian city was 10 pages long.


I was wondering why things were so much worse in Italy - one reason cited is that Italy has a considerable amount of older people in its population and especially in the hardest hit areas on Italy.


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## T-Dot-Traveller (Mar 16, 2020)

Good question / for every country in the world .

answer #  1)  - if it does not matter if citizens die unnecessarily - then there is a worldwide overreaction .

OR 

answer # 2) - if it matters to you ; that a ventilator & ICU bed IS AVAILABLE -  if you or someone you care about or even know - needs one /  then there there is no over reaction . 

answer #  3) NO government worldwide wants to “ own” answer #1 / so governments  are taking necessary steps .
Not every step will be critically important - BUT no steps taken - will result in additional deaths .


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## bluehende (Mar 16, 2020)

I believe the experts.  The worst case scenario is well over a million deaths in the US.  Under that type of potential consequences I would think that everything possible is the correct course.


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## b2bailey (Mar 16, 2020)

I'm in agreement that decisions should be made at the state level, or even by county. Why should the entire country be ruled by conditions in NYC, LA and other heavily populated areas? Perhaps social distancing should be a federal mandate. But I feel the statewide edict in CA for all over 65 to stay home is extreme.


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## b2bailey (Mar 16, 2020)

T-Dot-Traveller said:


> Good question / for every country in the worl
> 
> answer # 2) - if it matters to you ; that a ventilator & ICU bed IS AVAILABLE -



I've asked this question elsewhere, but no response.

Because of #2 above, I started to wonder about seniors with end of life instructions which say "do not hook me up". How would being hospitalized with Corona virus impact?

And then started thinking of the convalescent hospital in Kirkwood WA with high mortality rate. Could it have been impacted by patients having DNR on record and readily accessible -- since those instructions are a requirement when being admitted to a care home.


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## CaliSunshine (Mar 16, 2020)

If anything, we are underreacting. At our current trajectory, we are still on track to infecting 100 million people and having 1 million people die. Those are not numbers to scare you. Those are the best guesses by epidemiologists.

Some states have been more proactive than others, but I see the next big steps as being statewide and hopefully even nationwide quarantines. What that means is that people will be mostly confined to their homes, and only allowed to go out to get groceries and to see the doctor.


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## pedro47 (Mar 16, 2020)

stmartinfan said:


> After listening to NY Gov. Cuomo's press conference today, I don't think we are over reacting.  They have been running projections based on the timing in Italy and if we don't slow down infections immediately and start getting emergency hospital beds ready now, we will be overwhelmed like Italy in a short time.  He was factual and thoughtful, but it's a grim picture if we can't slow the spread. Without more testing we don't really know how widespread it is.


I feel we are under reacting. Our federal government knew about this virus in December 2019.
Secondly, why is the US Senate on recess and not passing legislation in regard to this virus. IMHO.

This virus is a national problem.


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## DeniseM (Mar 16, 2020)

That would make a nice epitaph...


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## TravelTime (Mar 16, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> I feel we are under reacting. Our federal government knew about this virus in December 2019.
> Secondly, why is the US Senate on recess and not passing legislation in regard to this virus. IMHO.
> 
> This virus is a national problem.



As I understand, Congress is not on recess. The House worked on the weekend and the Senate is working on the bill today. It is a bad bill because it puts the burden on small businesses to front the money to pay for sick leave. I think the government should pay directly, like with unemployment insurance. I hope the Senate changes how this bill is implemented. I am worried because my business relies on employees seeing clients and with the loss of revenue, it will be hard to fund paid sick leave, even if there is some reimbursement mechanism at which time I would get reimbursed somehow.


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 16, 2020)

What I don't understand is the bill exempts the largest companies who can best afford this? Small (and large) companies will lay off employees. There is no sick pay if you are laid off. They should boost unemployment which will swell.

California (and other states) should immediately repeal AB 5 and allow gig workers so people can boost their incomes with side jobs - they will need it. Instacart is hiring...


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## WVBaker (Mar 16, 2020)

*We have learned to live with the flu, which can cause up to 80,000 deaths a year in the U.S. and between 300,000 and 650,000 worldwide. It doesn’t invoke widespread fear, dread, and hysteria. Life goes on. People go out in public, eat at restaurants, drink in bars, fly in planes, take mass transit, attend sporting events, and congregate in other large indoor settings.*

We should try to balance the public health and safety concerns with disruptions in daily activities. Quarantining individuals who have been exposed to the virus or who have underlying health risks makes sense, as does adhering to prudent measures like staying at home if you feel sick, washing your hands regularly, covering your mouth when coughing and sneezing, and avoiding large social gatherings. All of these can attenuate the spread of the virus.

But we must be measured in our actions so we don’t end up causing more lasting harm than good as we try to protect ourselves and our communities from a new — and scary — infectious disease.

Darren Schulte, M.D., is the CEO of Apixio, a health analytics company.









						The novel coronavirus is a serious threat. We need to prepare, not overreact
					

The novel #coronavirus epidemic is something like sepsis: the reaction by the media and government is likely to produce more harm to societies around the globe than the virus, possibly for many years to come.




					www.statnews.com


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## vikingsholm (Mar 16, 2020)

I read today that half of the hospitalized Covid-19 patients in France are under 60 years old, and that the virus is still active in some of the more tropical countries in Asia, so I would say that complacency isn't warranted at this point due to the widely discussed more vulnerable age profile or warmer weather being less hospitable to the virus.  Still a lot of unknowns, it seems.


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## geekette (Mar 16, 2020)

While I think the shopping mania has been overreaction, the threat is real.  We are on track to be Italy, everyone locked down, loved ones dying in our homes.   The lack of testing has shielded the true impact to date.


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## Panina (Mar 16, 2020)

I think the government is under reacting.  Slowly each day we are being told additional suggested restrictions as well as mandated restrictions.  There are still many going out to open stores that are not groceries or drug stores. 

The reality is some walk around with no symptoms.  I just saw an interview of a man who was on one of the cruises.  His wife was in a foreign hospital due to her symptoms.  He had no symptons, they decided he should come back to the US, he did  but tested positive.  She is finally home, and he is still testing positive and after being in a hospital they let him go home to self quarantined. He is getting another test this afternoon.  Through the weeks he had no symptoms, was not sick but tested positive, so my deduction is many others are out there with no symptoms but carriers of the virus.

Unless we make it mandatory for all to stay home unless going to drug store or grocery with limitations how close we can be to each other this will keep spreading.

I personally feel it is much worse in the US then we are told. There is an article here and there that younger people are getting extremely sick.

I am not panicking.  I am realistically looking at the situation and we need to over react which we as a country are still not, only doing a bit at a time.  The only way you will keep people home is if things are shut and it is mandatory.  From what they are saying 40% still are not believing it is so bad, including my other half.  No way to keep him in as long as he is not mandated to stay home.

I realize how horrible this is financially to businesses and individuals but decisions should not consider this.  Only health risks should be in the decisions.   We will deal with the financial implications later while helping others that need help now.


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 16, 2020)

@geekette @Panina  I agree. Lack of testing kits and denial have fueled the uncertainty and fear.


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## fillde (Mar 16, 2020)

Some on this thread have mentioned elected officials. What was going through the mayor of NYC's head. Working out in a public GYM this  morning. Setting a bad example.


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## Panina (Mar 16, 2020)

fillde said:


> Some on this thread have mentioned elected officials. What was going through the mayor of NYC's head. Working out in a public GYM this  morning. Setting a bad example.


He was also going to keep the NYC schools open until the teachers said were going to all call in sick.


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 16, 2020)

Maybe it's not busy when he goes? I still go to the gym early in the morning. It's my one activity out of the house. Our gym is relatively empty in the early morning. This morning I was two elipticals away from the nearest person so there is social distance. I wipe down the machine thoroughly, use sanitizer and wash my hands before and after. I am in my 50s so not quite in the worst age group.

May need to start running/walking outside if they close this down. I would have gone stir crazy on one of those quarantined cruise ships stuck to my room.


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## slip (Mar 16, 2020)

Like everything it is both, some are over reacting and some are under reacting.


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## JohnPaul (Mar 16, 2020)

Unfortunately, if we are NOT overreacting and the strict measures work and slow things way down - people will use that to prove we overreacted.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 16, 2020)

JohnPaul said:


> Unfortunately, if we are NOT overreacting and the strict measures work and slow things way down - people will use that to prove we overreacted.


That is the dual edged sword in play here, but with the plethora of statistics and projections that have been generated I would hope a case could be made where the reaction was 'just right'.....


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## Sea Six (Mar 16, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I was wondering why things were so much worse in Italy - one reason cited is that Italy has a considerable amount of older people in its population and especially in the hardest hit areas on Italy.


Today I read that the situation is so bad in Italy, as far as having room to treat everyone in the hospital, that if it gets much worse people over 80 will be turned away.


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## WinniWoman (Mar 16, 2020)

Hubby and I were down in the basement this afternoon. I finally was getting around to exercising. Then I heard our son’s voice and I literally got scared. He stopped by on his lunch break and just let himself into the house.

I yelled up the stairs for him to stay at least 6 feet away from us. He came down and he stayed about 15 minutes. He said at work so far all is as normal. He also worked Sat and Sunday at the restaurant/ brewery. He said Sat was busy. He made decent tips both days.

Anyway, before he went back to work I told him to wash his hands and after he left, I wiped down the door handles with dish detergent.

So strange to not be able to kiss or hug him. Surreal.


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## fillde (Mar 16, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Maybe it's not busy when he goes? I still go to the gym early in the morning. It's my one activity out of the house. Our gym is relatively empty in the early morning. This morning I was two elipticals away from the nearest person so there is social distance. I wipe down the machine thoroughly, use sanitizer and wash my hands before and after. I am in my 50s so not quite in the worst age group.
> 
> May need to start running/walking outside if they close this down. I would have gone stir crazy on one of those quarantined cruise ships stuck to my room.



I think it's great you are exercising(literally) your right to make your own decisions. I  think it may change soon. But my point was the leader of arguably the largest City in the World is going to a public gym.  He is not onlyexposing  himself but his Security team to the virus. And again he is setting a poor example of self isolating.


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## pedro47 (Mar 16, 2020)

Hal, I feel we have a national problem with  this Coronavirus .


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 16, 2020)

fillde said:


> I think it's great you are exercising(literally) your right to make your own decisions. I  think it may change soon. But my point was the leader of arguably the largest City in the World is going to a public gym.  He is not onlyexposing  himself but his Security team to the virus. And again he is setting a poor example of self isolating.


Agree, he was not setting the best example - well the Bay Area just went on shelter in place so I guess today was my last day at the gym for a while...this is getting real...


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## geekette (Mar 16, 2020)

JohnPaul said:


> Unfortunately, if we are NOT overreacting and the strict measures work and slow things way down - people will use that to prove we overreacted.


at least they will be alive to make this allegation.  people say things, let em.  there can be no "proof" of anything.


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## geekette (Mar 16, 2020)

fillde said:


> I think it's great you are exercising(literally) your right to make your own decisions. I  think it may change soon. But my point was the leader of arguably the largest City in the World is going to a public gym.  He is not onlyexposing  himself but his Security team to the virus. And again he is setting a poor example of self isolating.


Our elected officials are never able to self-isolate in emergencies, they drive into them.  If he has no symptoms and no known contact with a positive person, and is observing the 6 feet, I think the man should work off his stress and stay healthy because people are depending on him.

How is this worse than a crowded stage for press conferences?


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## geekette (Mar 16, 2020)

we are under restrictions - can leave home for work, food or meds.  Indiana has its first death, in the big city, and mayor declared level 1 emergency which carries travel advisory.  also today is the end of our bars, restaurants and gyms.  Museums, etc. closed last week.


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## am1 (Mar 16, 2020)

Is Wall Street overreacting?  Seems as always yes as eventually normal will happen again.  But wall street make a lot of money when stocks go up and when they go down.


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## pedro47 (Mar 16, 2020)

I agree Wall Street is over reacting to the Coronavirus. I feel Wall Street is causing people not to purchase homes, automobile, major appliances, clothes, eating out, etc.,


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## geekette (Mar 16, 2020)

Wall Street reacts, it's what it does.  The volatility is simply reflecting the uncertainty.  Of everything.  The market runs on speculation and it's not so easy to guess the future at this point.


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## Brett (Mar 16, 2020)

am1 said:


> Is Wall Street overreacting?  Seems as always yes as eventually normal will happen again.  But wall street make a lot of money when stocks go up and when they go down.





pedro47 said:


> I agree Wall Street is over reacting to the Coronavirus. I feel Wall Street is causing people not to purchase homes, automobile, major appliances, clothes, eating out, etc.,



I agree with Geekette

Whether reacting or "over"reacting stock prices are a reflection of investors valuing the economy and the revenue of large companies.    If it is indeed a bad case of investors overreacting then stock prices will go back up --- or react better --  when people buying and selling stocks think the economy will get better. ...


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## TravelTime (Mar 16, 2020)

I do not think Wall Street is over reacting. They are just reacting to what people are thinking and doing. If anyone is over reacting, it is the people and Wall Street is following suit. When and if there is light at the end of the tunnel and some positive news comes out, then the stock market will start improving. This is what happened in the past. For example, stock market started to recover in 2009, well before Main Street improved.


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## Panina (Mar 16, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I do not think Wall Street is over reacting. They are just reacting to what people are thinking and doing. If anyone is over reacting, it is the people and Wall Street is following suit. When and if there is light at the end of the tunnel and some positive news comes out, then the stock market will start improving. This is what happened in the past. For example, stock market started to recover in 2009, well before Main Street improved.


Yes and those who had money to invest were better off but many others struggled unfortunately for years.


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## pedro47 (Mar 16, 2020)

The business that will be most effective  are small business, restaurants, the airlines & cruise lines, the entertainment and sporting industries IMHO.

Thus, Wall Street will be following the fears of the American Public.

Is this a National Pandemic? The Governor of New York State; stated Yes.

This Coronavirus is not under control anywhere on planet on Earth.


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## fillde (Mar 16, 2020)

geekette said:


> How is this worse than a crowded stage for press conferences?


 Probably every official on that stage has been tested. As for the gathered media ........


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## WVBaker (Mar 16, 2020)

fillde said:


> I think it's great you are exercising(literally) your right to make your own decisions. I  think it may change soon. But my point was the leader of arguably the largest City in the World is going to a public gym.  He is not onlyexposing  himself but his Security team to the virus. And again he is setting a poor example of self isolating.


For the agents involved in protecting the President, a virus is the least of their worries.


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## geekette (Mar 16, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> The business that will be most *effective  *are small business, restaurants, the airlines & cruise lines, the entertainment and sporting industries IMHO.
> 
> Thus, Wall Street will be following the fears of the American Public.
> 
> ...


Did you mean Affected?   I think you did, and I agree.  Hammered.   I am shocked to hear there are still people on cruise ships floating around without permission to dock.  

I don't think that Wall Street follows the fears of the public, rather, public follows what Wall Street does.   Talking heads proclaim Dow up, Dow down!  people are happy or sad, depending on what that is. 

The Stock Market is actually a market of stocks, each doing their individual thing, sometimes based on careful analysis of facts of the underlying business, sometimes based on sheer guesses, very often based on fear or greed.  It is Not the economy.  It's more like a herd of guessing gamblers reacting on some news or no news.  Some investors have a really great analytical system, some bet based on talisman, some just follow the trend.   The profitability of any individual company is not necessarily reflected by their stock movement, and right now, all companies have sinking stock prices that has nothing to do with whether or not they made money today.

I would urge all to think for themselves and not let market moves tell you what to think.  but,  you know, imo.


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## Brett (Mar 16, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> For the agents involved in protecting the President, a virus is the least of their worries.



unless the secret service agents have been exposed to the virus


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## WVBaker (Mar 16, 2020)

Brett said:


> unless the secret service agents have been exposed to the virus


Not even then.


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## Brett (Mar 16, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Not even then.



not even when secret service agents have associated with a "*foreign*" virus ?


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## Rolltydr (Mar 16, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> I'm in agreement that decisions should be made at the state level, or even by county. Why should the entire country be ruled by conditions in NYC, LA and other heavily populated areas? Perhaps social distancing should be a federal mandate. But I feel the statewide edict in CA for all over 65 to stay home is extreme.



Because everybody doesn’t stay in one place. There is free movement all around the country. One can travel to many states every single day. Which state rules will the virus obey? None of them. That’s why we need a nationwide coordinated response. Otherwise, we’re wasting our time and the coronavirus will continue spreading exponentially. Unfortunately, that’s where we are today.


Harry


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## am1 (Mar 16, 2020)

Right Wall Street is lote concerned if the stock will go up or down and not underlying assets, future growth after recovery etc.  makes sense but creates its own problem.  Where they are happy to profit from.


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## VacationForever (Mar 16, 2020)

Coronavirus will continue to spread for many more months.   We are not wasting our time with "flattening the curve" by social distancing and shutdowns.  It is necessary so that fewer will die from it.


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## rboesl (Mar 16, 2020)

When this all started I thought what was happening was an overreaction. But, seeing the projections, understanding that all we're doing is testing, and considering there's no treatment, I don't think we are overreacting. In addition, I don't think there's enough coordination between Federal & State governments. A state governor shouldn't feel it necessary to publicly state in a press release what he feels he needs from the federal government. That should have already been communicated between the leaders.


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## Brett (Mar 16, 2020)

am1 said:


> Right Wall Street is lote concerned if the stock will go up or down and not underlying assets, future growth after recovery etc.  makes sense but creates its own problem.  Where they are happy to profit from.



OK, I'm not sure what you mean but yes, the stock market goes up or down


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## chapjim (Mar 16, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I lean towards the government has not leveled with the American people. My nurse friend said it is not true that healthy people without preexisting conditions cannot get seriously sick. She is seeing it first hand.



Your nurse friend's statement is undoubtedly true but I don't think anyone in the government said anything to the contrary.  If that is the case, you're making a huge leap in suspecting the government has not leveled with the American people.  The Chinese government didn't level with the Chinese people, nor with the rest of the world.

It's all about probabilities.  Younger, healthy people without certain conditions are far less likely to get seriously sick but it certainly can happen.

Older persons with certain conditions are more likely to become seriously ill but many will not.


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## chapjim (Mar 16, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> What I don't understand is the bill exempts the largest companies who can best afford this? Small (and large) companies will lay off employees. There is no sick pay if you are laid off. They should boost unemployment which will swell.
> 
> California (and other states) should immediately repeal AB 5 and allow gig workers so people can boost their incomes with side jobs - they will need it. Instacart is hiring...



The bill was changed so that companies with 50 or fewer employees are exempt.


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## chapjim (Mar 16, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> I feel we are under reacting. Our federal government knew about this virus in December 2019.
> Secondly, why is the US Senate on recess and not passing legislation in regard to this virus. IMHO.
> 
> This virus is a national problem.



The US government knew there was a virus in December 2019.  It is not accurate to say the US government knew ABOUT the virus.  The US government would have known more ABOUT the virus except the Chinese government, that unquestionably knew ABOUT the virus, tried to cover it up.


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## chapjim (Mar 16, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> The business that will be most effective  are small business, restaurants, the airlines & cruise lines, the entertainment and sporting industries IMHO.
> 
> Thus, Wall Street will be following the fears of the American Public.
> 
> ...



It is NOT a national pandemic.  National and pandemic don't go together.  Pandemic means much more widely spread than national.


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## T-Dot-Traveller (Mar 16, 2020)

Canadian Provinces have instituted similar shutdowns for similar reasons to USA states .

(ie.)- there  are only so many ventilators & ICU beds per 10 thousands residents; 
and no government wants to be known as “the next Italy”.

Most of the identified cases until the last few days were inbound travellers who reported symptoms and were tested after returning home .
Canada may be a week or two behind the USA on community transmission (IMO)

whether there is any difference in outcomes from one  jurisdiction to another will be an interesting public policy
experiment . One I wish none of has to watch unfold .


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## CO skier (Mar 17, 2020)

"Just the facts ma'am."

Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that *influenza* has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 *deaths annually* since 2010.

Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus World Map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html -- 181,00 cases, 7,100 deaths to date.

(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

There is no question public policy officials grossly overreacted to the Coronavirus outbreak.  Do we shut down the entire world economy every year when the flu breaks out?

People die from infectious diseases -- flu, Ebola, HIV, Coronavirus.

And then there is this to consider, "... no country can simply quarantine its way out of the _covid_-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. “There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus.” Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”  

It is obvious this "quarantine" has been haphazard.  Cancelling college classes and disbursing all the students -- infected, healthy, or carriers -- from a college community of low risk young people to spread the disease across the country; creating a panic that sends people to mob Costco and grocery stores to hoard goods and pass around the Coronavirus in the checkout line; pack multiple plane loads of people from various countries with raging Coronavirus outbreaks into O'Hare airport to wait for hours literally shoulder to shoulder so that all of them are exposed to the virus, and then they get on connecting flights after clearing customs to destinations across the country.

And now, after all these weeks, the Keystone Cops are starting lock-downs, which did nothing to stop the spread in China and on to the rest of the world?

So we traded the world economy for what looks like just another run-of-the-mill viral infection.  A very bad trade, imo.

“a seductive illusion of containment.”  is right.


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## klpca (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> "Just the facts ma'am."
> 
> Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that *influenza* has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 *deaths annually* since 2010.
> 
> ...


You may feel differently if you were the person on chemo or who lives on immunosupressants (that's me). I can get a flu shot and so can everyone else. But there's nothing for this virus. My friend is getting a bone marrow transplant soon (maybe - not sure if they have delayed it). This virus would kill her, but the transplant is her only hope. She is 58.

That said, the response to this has been a bungled mess and is what has caused the hysteria in my opinion. The media took the bit and ran with it and the message is disjointed and out of control.


----------



## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

....One I wish none of has to watch unfold . 

yes.   I am trying to prepare myself mentally for great sadness ahead.


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 17, 2020)

chapjim said:


> The bill was changed so that companies with 50 or fewer employees are exempt.



They are not automatically exempt. They need to apply for the exemption and show that the bill would be detrimental to surviving. I am not sure how easy this will be since I assume most small businesses will be applying.


----------



## CO skier (Mar 17, 2020)

klpca said:


> You may feel differently if you were the person on chemo or who lives on immunosupressants (that's me).


I am just presenting some facts that show how you and most of the public are being seduced by public policy officials into an illusion of containment.  The Covid-19 virus will run its course with or without ineffective "quarantines" just as it did in China and other countries.  That is what public officials are not revealing.  The Coronavirus infection is too far along the curve at this point for much flattening.

But politicians feel obligated to "do something" and do more damage than if they had just let the infection run its course with some minimal degree of "social distancing" like allowing only 1/3 the usual number of patrons into a restaurant at a time, instead of closing down the entire restaurant industry in certain cities.


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> "Just the facts ma'am."
> 
> Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that *influenza* has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 *deaths annually* since 2010.
> 
> ...



You asked: 
(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

I think the reason is because they expect the number of deaths to exponentially expand as the number of cases grow. I saw one estimate saying that one million Americans could die from Covid-19. I have no idea if this is true and it is possible the number of deaths is more like a flu in the end. At least I hope so.


----------



## klpca (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> I am just presenting some facts that show how you and most of the public are being seduced by public policy officials into an illusion of containment.  The Covid-19 virus will run its course with or without ineffective "quarantines" just as it did in China and other countries.  That is what public officials are not revealing.  The Coronavirus infection is too far along the curve at this point for much flattening.
> 
> But politicians feel obligated to "do something" and do more damage than if they had just let the infection run its course with some minimal degree of "social distancing" like allowing only 1/3 the usual number of patrons into a restaurant at a time, instead of closing down the entire restaurant industry in certain cities.


I wouldn't know - I'm staying very close to home. Restaurants aren't safe for me, or stores, or theaters etc. I'm doing all that I can. I worry about my family getting exposed at work and bringing it into the house. I'd love some reduced risk.


----------



## CO skier (Mar 17, 2020)

klpca said:


> I wouldn't know - I'm staying very close to home. Restaurants aren't safe for me, or stores, or theaters etc. I'm doing all that I can. I worry about my family getting exposed at work and bringing it into the house. I'd love some reduced risk.


That is how many at-risk people handle flu season, and that is how this infection should have been handled -- those at risk minimize their contact with others, instead of the government instituting ineffective quarantines that are too much, too late.


----------



## CaliSunshine (Mar 17, 2020)

It


CO skier said:


> "Just the facts ma'am."
> 
> Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that *influenza* has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 *deaths annually* since 2010.
> 
> ...



The way you're comparing is a bit apples to oranges. We do nothing special for the flu except vaccinate, and it causes tens of thousands of deaths a year and hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations.

If we don't do something severe (large scale quarantines) for the coronavirus 40%-60% of the country's/world's population will get it, and of those 0.5-1.5% will die, and 10%+ will need to get hospitalized.

That's a huge difference on the effects on our health system. That's a huge difference in the number of deaths.


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 17, 2020)

CaliSunshine said:


> It
> 
> 
> The way you're comparing is a bit apples to oranges. We do nothing special for the flu except vaccinate, and it causes tens of thousands of deaths a year and hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations.
> ...



I wonder if the quarantines of the large masses of people is only suppressing the problem, instead of fixing it. Will the infection rate jump back up when people start interacting again? It will be interesting to see what is happening in China as everyone starts mingling again. I have not seen much about China in the news lately.


----------



## CO skier (Mar 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> You asked:
> (Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)
> 
> I think the reason is because they expect the number of deaths to exponentially expand as the number of cases grow. I saw one estimate saying that one million Americans could die from Covid-19. I have no idea if this is true and it is possible the number of deaths is more like a flu in the end. At least I hope so.


Thanks.  I also found this (emphasis added):









						WHO declares the outbreak of the new coronavirus is a pandemic
					

There are now cases in 114 countries




					www.theverge.com
				




"A pandemic is the “worldwide spread of a *new disease*,” according to the WHO. There’s no cut-and-dry criteria for what reaches the level of pandemic and what does not, and there is no threshold of cases or deaths that triggers the definition."


The annual flu is not a new disease, so it is not declared a pandemic each year.

The World Health Organization is reluctant to declare pandemics, because it can lead to "unnecessary panic."


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I wonder if the quarantines of the large masses of people is only suppressing the problem, instead of fixing it. Will the infection rate jump back up when people start interacting again? It will be interesting to see what is happening in China as everyone starts mingling again. I have not seen much about China in the news lately.


I did see something about China today.  It was characterized as "a few cases popping up here and there".


----------



## CO skier (Mar 17, 2020)

CaliSunshine said:


> If we don't do something severe (large scale quarantines) for the coronavirus 40%-60% of the country's/world's population will get it, and of those 0.5-1.5% will die, and 10%+ will need to get hospitalized.


I would like to see the data that backs up that statement.  The Johns-Hopkins link I posted show nothing of the sort 4 months into the infection.


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## VacationForever (Mar 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I wonder if the quarantines of the large masses of people is only suppressing the problem, instead of fixing it. Will the infection rate jump back up when people start interacting again? It will be interesting to see what is happening in China as everyone starts mingling again. I have not seen much about China in the news lately.


China is already re-mingling for a month now. Not a significant increase in cases and most new cases are from people flying into China.


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## TravelTime (Mar 17, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> China is already re-mingling for a month now. Not a significant increase in cases and most new cases are from people flying into China.



That is amazing that China got it under control. This is encouraging.


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## CaliSunshine (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> I would like to see the data that backs up that statement.  The Johns-Hopkins link I posted show nothing of the sort 4 months into the infection.



Here's a good link, with links to some other good links: https://theconversation.com/the-her...is-unethical-and-potentially-dangerous-133765


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## pedro47 (Mar 17, 2020)

The federal government needs to take full control of this problem and not individuals states liked New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.

I also, feel our top medical experts needs to talk to China medical experts to exchange best practices ideas in controlling the Coronavirus. IMHO.


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## Talent312 (Mar 17, 2020)

The overreaction is due in part to irrational panic... abject fear.
Also, the need for something interesting in our mundane lives.

So, would you rather be off work for no good reason, or be sick?
Personally, I'd prefer not being sick, so I'll go with overreacting.
.


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> "... no country can simply quarantine its way out of the _covid_-19 crisis, ........
> 
> It is obvious this "quarantine" has been haphazard.  Cancelling college classes and disbursing all the students -- infected, healthy, or carriers -- from a college community of low risk young people to spread the disease across the country; creating a panic that sends people to mob Costco and grocery stores to hoard goods and pass around the Coronavirus in the checkout line; pack multiple plane loads of people from various countries with raging Coronavirus outbreaks into O'Hare airport to wait for hours literally shoulder to shoulder so that all of them are exposed to the virus, and then they get on connecting flights after clearing customs to destinations across the country.
> 
> And now, after all these weeks, the Keystone Cops are starting lock-downs, which did nothing to stop the spread in China and on to the rest of the world?



I agree -
the haphazard way colleges and universities were closed and students dispersed likely added to Covid 19 spread 
as did the O’Hare  airport debacle .

IMO - China’s lockdown of Wuhan / Hubei - probably did work to slow down rapid spreading to the rest of China 
during the traditional Chinese New Year travel time . This likely meant the rest of Chinese hospitals 
were not overwhelmed by sick patients.

Yesterday - 
A senior Canadian Goverment official was on TV saying : “ Canadians need to come home “ 
-for most snowbirds this is a poorly thought out “ plan “ 

let’s have hundreds of thousands of 70+ year olds get on planes and go through airports - so that they 
can infect each other . Then show up at hospitals in Canada that have the same limited ICU / ventilator capacity 
issues that all hospitals worldwide have .

A better plan would have been to say - if you have a stable situation / isolate in place AND 
Canada will ensure that your out of province / country private insurance will be continued until you return 
and if you exceed your out of Canada time line - there will be no requalification period to have you provincial run coverage continue .


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## DannyTS (Mar 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> That is amazing that China got it under control. This is encouraging.


actually the number of new cases in China is higher today than a month ago which shows that the panic lock-down is destroying the world economy and resolving nothing.







						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					www.arcgis.com


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## bbodb1 (Mar 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I wonder if the quarantines of the large masses of people is only suppressing the problem, instead of fixing it. Will the infection rate jump back up when people start interacting again? It will be interesting to see what is happening in China as everyone starts mingling again. I have not seen much about China in the news lately.


There is ample evidence supporting the idea that social distancing will flatten the infection curve, thus producing fewer cases in the long term and not stressing our health care system past the point of breaking.


----------



## WVBaker (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> I would like to see the data that backs up that statement.  The Johns-Hopkins link I posted show nothing of the sort 4 months into the infection.



I'm afraid data and facts have been swept aside, replaced by fear, assumptions and speculations.


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## heathpack (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> "Just the facts ma'am."
> 
> Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that *influenza* has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 *deaths annually* since 2010.
> 
> ...



Corona virus is a bigger threat than influenza for the reasons I listed in my posts in the “Whose traveling in March thread”.  It’s not a run of the mill infection.

1.  It’s more contagious
2.  It has a higher fatality rate in all age groups
3.  It’s a novel virus, meaning there’s no immunity to it in our population
4.  When people get seriously sick with it, they are sicker longer than with influenza a tie up more nursing care and ventilator days

China solved their outbreak by lockdown, which worked.  It didn’t contain the spread of disease beyond their borders, but it slowed spread enough to save many lives.  Their economy took a big hit but the people who run the economy are still alive, so they can rebuild their economy over time.

Panic buying IMO has happened because of poor leadership- mixed messages from the top levels of federal government and from irresponsible influential people minimizing the risk.

If we could rely on individuals to buy in to acting for the greater good, lockdowns could be unnecessary.  But there’s always people who know better, or won’t be told what to do.  So: lockdowns come.

How do lockdowns help?  They help slow the spread of disease so that everyone doesn’t get sick at once.  This means it’s more feasible to deliver healthcare to the sick, and we don’t lose lives that could have been saved had the healthcare system not been overwhelmed.  Slowed spread of disease also let a degree of population immunity build, at least for this season.  Which means when the lockdown is over, people can mingle more safely because perhaps 20% of folks you encounter have already had the infection and won’t pass it on.

It’s simply not logical that all these government officials are over reacting to the threat.  We are seeing dramatic containment measures being put in place by governors and mayors with all kinds of backgrounds.  None of them want to risk re-election by tanking their economy.  The fact that they have access to better information than the rest of us, and they’re making these decisions, should speak volumes.

Totally agree that the implementation of a lot of these individual measures have been inelegant to say the least.  Many times the specific way in which some measure was initially implemented made the problem worse, at least at first.  That’s a matter of preparedness and leadership.  I’d criticize the roll out of the various responses pretty heavily.  But that’s water under the bridge, if our leaders get their acts together (as they seem to be) that’s all I can ask at this point in time.


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## SmithOp (Mar 17, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> actually the number of new cases in China is higher today than a month ago which shows that the panic lock-down is destroying the world economy and resolving nothing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The data you linked doesn’t support your statement, total cases line has flattened, the lock-down is working. When the line flattens, NEW cases = 0.







Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Mar 17, 2020)

I'm "forted up" in deepest, darkest, suburbia. But with an old microbiology degree, I started "forting up" weeks ago. I may be a fool, but the next 4 weeks will tell. Besides, the panic has caused my employer to let me work from home. Bye bye 2 hour commute. . .


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## LMD (Mar 17, 2020)

I personally feel like in some areas we are underreacting. I don't understand why they haven't federally mandated closure  of certain things like bars, restaurants and gyms. There are people who still think this is a hoax. One of our local Drs commented on how frustrated she has been trying to convince people otherwise.  It is better to be safe than sorry.  We don't know what the long term health consequences are of this virus either. I think some people that "recover" will suffer chronic pulmonary issues due to changes in the lung tissue. Can you imagine what would have happened here if the US was the first to suffer from this virus rather than China? It would have been absolutely disastrous!


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## VacationForever (Mar 17, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> The overreaction is due in part to irrational panic... abject fear.
> Also, the need for something interesting in our mundane lives.
> 
> So, would you rather be off work for no good reason, or be sick?
> ...


What the world is now doing was what China was doing until they had it under control.  China locked down entire cities and had everyone stay home.  It is not panic or overreacting.


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## Sandi Bo (Mar 17, 2020)

We are asking our health care providers to risk (and some will lose) their lives.  Seeing many letters from physicians with similar messages (stay home). I haven't seen any from physicians feeling otherwise.  Here's one my daughter (a physician in Omaha) shared this morning:

From a Seattle Emergency Physician to my wonderful hometown of Omaha, NE.

I am writing to you from the medical front lines of the US epicenter of this pandemic with angst knowing what is in store for you. I am not warning you this is coming to Omaha, I’m telling you it is already there, quietly spreading amongst you. This is a sleeping giant.

Lack of testing nationwide has given people a false sense of reassurance yielding low numbers. I PROMISE you, its already at YOUR office and YOUR gym. Many are likely not feeling the symptoms yet and are going about their days thinking "I feel healthy so I'm fine".

The biggest myth about the COVID-19 pandemic is that the doctors and hospitals will be the life savers. Actually, it will be all of you as a result of the decisions you make today. Our hospital systems will be overwhelmed, resources will run out, ventilators will run short. We will not be able to adequately treat all who will be in need.
Staying home = lives saved. It is that simple. It is in your hands, not ours. As a doctor, I cannot protect my patients in Seattle, or my Omaha family from this virus, but YOU all can protect your own families and mine as well within the comfort of your own home.

Please stop comparing this to influenza.
To the young people- please stop blowing it off.
The cavalier mentality of a few will collapse all of our efforts. Thorough hand washing is good, but not good enough.
Make drastic changes to your daily lives now and get ready for the long haul.

However many proactive steps the government asks you to take, take ten more. They have been behind the game every step of the way. Consider what restrictions they place as your BARE MINIMUM. Make your goal to do better than what they ask. The greatest generation was asked to go to war....you are asked just to stay home. Please protect your families, and protect mine too. You have far more power than you know.

It’s so simple.
Stay home and save a life.


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## presley (Mar 17, 2020)

I think there is overreacting by the panic people who are let fear run their lives. 
I think there is a degree of underreacting by the government who I feel has made a lot of very bad choices, especially here in the San Diego area. We are finally getting strict, but to not test sick people in the high risk group with all of the symptoms just because someone was still able to walk around and get out was a really stupid thing to do. Hopefully, we are beyond that at this point, but that was just last week.


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## bluehende (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> "Just the facts ma'am."
> 
> Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that *influenza* has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 *deaths annually* since 2010.
> 
> ...


  The one flaw in your comparison is that one is an estimated number for a year with good data to back it up.  The other number is a to date number that changes every day.....and it does not go down.  I really hope you can do that comparison at the end of a year and get the same qualitative conclusion.

PS   I get the flu shot every year and still avoid sick people to limit my exposure.


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## pedro47 (Mar 17, 2020)

I also wish someone would limit beach excess to the general public to stop the social contacts of large crowds.


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## Rolltydr (Mar 17, 2020)

presley said:


> I think there is overreacting by the panic people who are let fear run their lives.
> I think there is a degree of underreacting by the government who I feel has made a lot of very bad choices, especially here in the San Diego area. We are finally getting strict, but to not test sick people in the high risk group with all of the symptoms just because someone was still able to walk around and get out was a really stupid thing to do. Hopefully, we are beyond that at this point, but that was just last week.


The worst case scenario if we overreact is that the economy is seriously damaged but fewer people get sick, fewer people are admitted to hospitals and fewer people die than is currently being estimated. The worst case scenario if we under react is that the economy is seriously damaged AND more people get sick, our health system is overrun with cases similar to what is happening in Italy and as many as a million people or more will die. So, bring that down to your immediate family level. You can take an action that may cause you to miss a vacation but greatly improves the odds that one or more members of your family will not get ill, potentially seriously ill, and perhaps even die. Or, you can take an action that gives you a chance to have that vacation later but exponentially increases the chance that one or more family members will get sick, perhaps be hospitalized and potentially die. It’s not that hard. I know some will say they don’t believe this and they don’t believe that and that‘s fine. But again, what is the risk if you’re correct and what is the risk if you’re wrong? None of us know for sure, but it could be your family.


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> They are not automatically exempt. They need to apply for the exemption and show that the bill would be detrimental to surviving. I am not sure how easy this will be since I assume most small businesses will be applying.


Mnuchin appears to be committed to making things fast and easy.   I think he grasps the urgency and has not created new departments to handle it, so I would think Fast And Easy.  Please go ahead and believe that until you find it isn't so.  Stress and worry are unproductive, especially since there is nothing you can do about it.


----------



## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> I also, feel our top medical experts needs to talk to China medical experts to exchange best practices ideas in controlling the Coronavirus. IMHO.


According to several doctors and experts, they are communicating across the world, trying to determine best practices, etc.


----------



## Old Hickory (Mar 17, 2020)

slip said:


> Like everything it is both, some are over reacting and some are under reacting.



Yep.   The fringes get the media's attention.


----------



## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

....None of them want to risk re-election by tanking their economy. .

some of them actually care about not losing lives.  We call them Public Servants.


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## Big Matt (Mar 17, 2020)

geekette said:


> Mnuchin appears to be committed to making things fast and easy.   I think he grasps the urgency and has not created new departments to handle it, so I would think Fast And Easy.  Please go ahead and believe that until you find it isn't so.  Stress and worry are unproductive, especially since there is nothing you can do about it.


I worry a little bit about the drastic rate cuts.  I work in the mortgage industry as a management consultant, and right now rates are so low that once lenders can handle the capacity almost everyone will refinance.  That sounds good until unemployment goes up and people can't pay their mortgages.  A simpler and more effective solution would have been to contemplate a payment holiday or deferral as with Soldiers and Sailors who are deployed.  I like the fact that Mnuchin is taking a pragmatic approach, but I think we'll need addtional measures.


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> I'm afraid data and facts have been swept aside, replaced by fear, assumptions and speculations.


we will have all the facts after this is over.   We have many unknowns.  Modelling is all that can be done.  

What facts do you think you have about how many Americans will be affected and how many will die?  How could you possibly have these facts until the death and destruction is done?

Should we all just stumble around blindly until there are facts or should we take precautions?  I'm not waiting to find out the precise number of people that died in my state.

This is A New Virus.  We have no history.  We have a few countries that went before us to try to learn from.  That's It.  Until our final count of death toll is known.  and nobody knows when that will be.

You're looking for what doesn't exist.  Good luck with that.


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## WVBaker (Mar 17, 2020)

Coronavirus and the Isolation Paradox    

While social distancing may be required to contain the spread of the coronavirus, it may also contribute to poor health in the long run. So while physical isolation will be required for many Americans who have Covid-19 or have been exposed to it, it’s important that we don’t let such measures cause social and emotional isolation, too.


----------



## Maple_Leaf (Mar 17, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> I also wish someone would limit beach excess to the general public to stop the social contacts of large crowds.


How about this guy?


----------



## vikingsholm (Mar 17, 2020)

Here is a decent description that I found, with some numerical examples, of why social isolation is being implemented:


Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.


But if social behavior cuts the replication rate to 1.25 and — due to higher health system capacity and more effective quarantining of the elderly — the case fatality rate to 0.5 percent, then after 30 days there will only be a bit more than 533,000 cases and 2,665 deaths. That loss of life would remain tragic, but more than 72,000 lives would be saved.


Here’s the catch: These measures are far more effective if implemented, well, _now_. “One of the particularly tough things about this infection is you get this delay of about a month between exposure and death,” Kucharski told me. “By the time people are taking it seriously, even if you stop transmission completely, you still likely have another three or four weeks of hospitals filling up.” In other words, you need to stop the disease before the health system is visibly overwhelmed, not after.


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## geist1223 (Mar 17, 2020)

Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.


----------



## pedro47 (Mar 17, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.



Please do not be so cold hearted. Do you know have many people would become unemployed. Let's just looked at some of the largest employers in the United States  ;Walt Disney Corp, IBM, Bank of America, Walmart, Amazon, DHL, UPS, Kroger, Target Corp, etc. I can name the top 25 employers in the United States and all would  be force to cut back on their total number of employees.
If will be a ripple effect IMHO..

Also, do you know & understand how much Congress members waste on their special projects.
Free college education for their spouses and their children is only one example.
Their hospitalization plan is the very best in the free world.


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## WVBaker (Mar 17, 2020)

vikingsholm said:


> Here is a decent description that I found, with some numerical examples, of why social isolation is being implemented:
> 
> 
> Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.
> ...



Once again, this article is basing these numbers on assumptions and not actual facts. The end result could be higher or lower. Right now, optimism or pessimism plays a vital role in anyone's outlook. Even the "experts", each with their own opinion, can't agree on what the end result will be. And as the old saying goes, opinions are like ....., well you know.


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## geist1223 (Mar 17, 2020)

Like I said let the chips fall where they may.


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## JohnPaul (Mar 17, 2020)

One thing I haven't noticed people mentioning.  It's not just the US.  It's the entire world - definition of pandemic.

We have limited numbers of people alive who remember what polio was like and what it took to limit it.  We have no one alive who remembers what the 1918 Spanish Flu was like.  I think this helps account for the concern of "over reacting".


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## pedro47 (Mar 17, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Like I said let the chips fall where they may.


Macy’s, Bloomingdales, and Nordstrom are closing all of their stores because of the Coronavirus. How many employees will be laid off.

The chips are falling.


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## bluehende (Mar 17, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Once again, this article is basing these numbers on assumptions and not actual facts. The end result could be higher or lower. Right now, optimism or pessimism plays a vital role in anyone's outlook. Even the "experts", each with their own opinion, can't agree on what the end result will be. And as the old saying goes, opinions are like ....., well you know.




You do know that the numbers you quote about the flu are also modeled and are not measured.  That model has assumptions too and believe it or not those assumptions are the exact same ones you are discounting now.


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.


No, Everyone does not want Everything.  I am a literal person, and I understand stress, but have to be annoying about harsh generalizations such as this.  I apologize for that, but I could not let that stand as some kind of grand truth.  We are all some mix of stress, fear, frustration and anger.  Please feel free to jump on me when I inappropriately pop off, because I'm sure it will happen.  We are all humans with loved ones and what we thought we had built for ourselves and our families in grave danger.

For me, airlines are critical infrastructure.  We don't need All the airlines, we don't need All the duplicative routes.  I don't think we should pick winners and losers, but we require air service.  I'd like to see consolidation, but, people smarter than me need to noodle on what to do.  I don't fly often, as little as possible, but that's my little life and my little choices.  In this world, air travel is no longer a luxury, it is a need.  

I have no idea why we would prioritize (non-American taxpaying) cruiselines or hotels.  neither are critical.  employees and owners in most industries will be hit, I don't see how these 2 are somehow more special.  I am willing to listen to arguments on why they should be prioritized.  Healthcare workers and food industries rank highest right now, imo.   Every human needs both of these.  

There is a drum beating on Capitol Hill to bail out The People.  It is recognized that we held the bag in other bailouts and we are in deep doo doo, most all of us.  Most anyone not a CEO or wealthy retired person is a big loser in this somehow.  We are early to figuring this out, but it does seem that there are lobbyists for The People.  We are that, too. contact your reps, tell them what you need.  lobby their vote on bills of great interest to you.   I think 1k to every American is a good idea right now, fast.  Less than corp welfare.  

Pretty much all of us are tumbling in some surreal blender right now, hoping to not be the hunk the blade catches.  We are smart people, we can find solutions to help each other.  Some of it is up to us as citizens, but plenty of it must come from our government, which has received payments from us for all our working lives, and after that, too, should we have anything to tax.


----------



## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Like I said let the chips fall where they may.


Or, let your voice be heard to steer the chips in the desired direction.   Congress works for you.  Or, watch chips fall and grump about it without trying to force Change.


----------



## bluehende (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> I would like to see the data that backs up that statement.  The Johns-Hopkins link I posted show nothing of the sort 4 months into the infection.


  Ask and you will receive.  Here is an academic (peer reviewed) article using standard modeling.  It is kind of hard to measure the future.  We have a lot of experience with models because of our experience with other viral outbreaks.  Here is the results.  I found this because it is being reported that this study is what changed Trump's tone.  Hard to call this a hoax with top scientists saying this.


ResultsIn the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months(Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimatedR0of 2.4, we predict 81%ofthe GBand US populationswould be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due  to the larger geographic scaleof the US, resulting in more  distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B)than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB

16 March 2020Imperial CollegeCOVID-19 Response TeamDOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482Page 7of 20

is due tothe smaller size of the country andits older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GBand 2.2 million in the US,  not  accounting  for  the potential  negative effects  of  health  systems  being  overwhelmed

That is 2.2 million deaths in the us.  As some will say it could be better and you are right.  I will counter that statistics say it could even be worse.  Now this scenario is for those that say we are over reacting.  Here is the link for those that want to follow up with the model for various scenarios.



			https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


----------



## WVBaker (Mar 17, 2020)

bluehende said:


> You do know that the numbers you quote about the flu are also modeled and are not measured.  That model has assumptions too and believe it or not those assumptions are the exact same ones you are discounting now.


We'll disagree but, thanks for the opinion.


----------



## DannyTS (Mar 17, 2020)

vikingsholm said:


> Here is a decent description that I found, with some numerical examples, of why social isolation is being implemented:
> 
> 
> Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.
> ...



Provided that of course the people who did not catch it in the first month will never catch it. The problem with that logic is that they can and probably still catch it later, by most estimates 50-60% of the population will get it anyways.


----------



## Brett (Mar 17, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Macy’s, Bloomingdales, and Nordstrom are closing all of their stores because of the Coronavirus. How many employees will be laid off.
> 
> The chips are falling.



and some will pick up chips .... or deliver


----------



## bbodb1 (Mar 17, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.


In theory, I like where your thinking is here.  
BUT do you believe these industries would sink without executives finding even more creative ways to line their pockets?  I suspect you would see a slew of M/A with golden parachutes galore....


----------



## DannyTS (Mar 17, 2020)

vikingsholm said:


> Here is a decent description that I found, with some numerical examples, of why social isolation is being implemented:
> 
> 
> Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.
> ...



Provided that of course the people who did not catch it in the first month will never catch it. The problem with that logic is that they can still catch it later, most estimates are that 50-60% of the population will have it sooner or later


----------



## VacationForever (Mar 17, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Provided that of course the people who did not catch it in the first month will never catch it. The problem with that logic is that they can still catch it later because the isolation measures cannot


But that is where vaccines come in to benefit those who have not caught it.  We need those vaccines really soon!


----------



## Rolltydr (Mar 17, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.



You sound nice. 


Harry


----------



## bluehende (Mar 17, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> We'll disagree but, thanks for the opinion.


  You do know the difference between scientific modeling and opinion right. 

ps it is not whether it agrees with you.


----------



## b2bailey (Mar 17, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Maybe it's not busy when he goes? I still go to the gym early in the morning. It's my one activity out of the house. Our gym is relatively empty in the early morning. This morning I was two elipticals away from the nearest person so there is social distance. I wipe down the machine thoroughly, use sanitizer and wash my hands before and after. I am in my 50s so not quite in the worst age group.
> 
> May need to start running/walking outside if they close this down. I would have gone stir crazy on one of those quarantined cruise ships stuck to my room.





pedro47 said:


> The federal government needs to take full control of this problem and not individuals states liked New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.
> 
> I also, feel our top medical experts needs to talk to China medical experts to exchange best practices ideas in controlling the Coronavirus. IMHO.


I disagree. The USA is such a vast array of people and places, it would be difficult to apply a one size fits all to our country.


----------



## WVBaker (Mar 17, 2020)

bluehende said:


> You do know the difference between scientific modeling and opinion right.
> 
> ps it is not whether it agrees with you.


Perhaps just a bit more than you think so, shall we continue this silly game or move on.


----------



## DannyTS (Mar 17, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> But that is where vaccines come in to benefit those who have not caught it.  We need those vaccines really soon!


I agree with you, it becomes obvious that they are slowing it down to a) prepare the hospitals have the proper equipment for everyone: medical staff and patients b) have enought testing kits available to the population c) have those vaccines.

With all the efforts though, the vaccines will not be ready soon enough though


----------



## Rolltydr (Mar 17, 2020)

bluehende said:


> You do know the difference between scientific modeling and opinion right.
> 
> ps it is not whether it agrees with you.


It’s useless trying to have a conversation with him/her. He/She can’t, or won’t, tell you why he/she thinks what he/she thinks. I came to the conclusion that someone is telling them what to think so they don’t have an answer when you try to get additional information. I finally added him/her to my Ignore list over the weekend when I had a similar, fruitless conversation.


----------



## WVBaker (Mar 17, 2020)

bluehende said:


> You do know the difference between scientific modeling and opinion right.
> 
> ps it is not whether it agrees with you.



Just an added note. I see "Rolltydr" has joined the conversation. It's a shame really, he/she wishes to continue the insults and name calling simply because another member disagrees with him/her. We don't always agree with each other or share points of view however, there was no reason for him/her resort to that level.


----------



## bbodb1 (Mar 17, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> It’s useless trying to have a conversation with him/her. He/She can’t, or won’t, tell you why he/she thinks what he/she thinks. I came to the conclusion that someone is telling them what to think so they don’t have an answer when you try to get additional information. I finally added him/her to my Ignore list over the weekend when I had a similar, fruitless conversation.


Coming from Neil Young, this is entertaining.


----------



## heathpack (Mar 17, 2020)

geekette said:


> ....None of them want to risk re-election by tanking their economy. .
> 
> some of them actually care about not losing lives.  We call them Public Servants.



Well, yeah.  That too!


----------



## Rolltydr (Mar 17, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> I disagree. The USA is such a vast array of people and places, it would be difficult to apply a one size fits all to our country.


Think of it this way: If you are a supplier of masks during an emergency when millions of masks are needed, do you want one person calling you to order masks for thousands of locations, or would you rather have those thousands of locations calling you individually? We’re not saying the federal government should make every decision. We’re saying the federal government needs to be coordinating the response so decisions can be made and actions taken more efficiently than having a free for all with every state and or municipality doing their own thing. That is chaos and slows the response time for everyone.


----------



## b2bailey (Mar 17, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Think of it this way: If you are a supplier of masks during an emergency when millions of masks are needed, do you want one person calling you to order masks for thousands of locations, or would you rather have those thousands of locations calling you individually? We’re not saying the federal government should make every decision. We’re saying the federal government needs to be coordinating the response so decisions can be made and actions taken more efficiently than having a free for all with every state and or municipality doing their own thing. That is chaos and slows the response time for everyone.


I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.

I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.

[Political content redacted]


----------



## littlestar (Mar 17, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I was wondering why things were so much worse in Italy - one reason cited is that Italy has a considerable amount of older people in its population and especially in the hardest hit areas on Italy.


Another problem that may have made this worse in Italy are the Chinese sweatshops making designer bags and textiles.  (Some factories use illegal Chinese workers and if these poor Chinese people/slave labor were ill it would be difficult to trace it).  And then you add in Italy’s older population and it is a recipe for disaster.  The New Yorker magazine had an interesting 2018 article called “The Chinese Workers Who Assemble Designer Bags in Tuscany”.   Some factories are legal and some are not.


----------



## Rolltydr (Mar 17, 2020)

[Political content redacted]


----------



## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.
> 
> I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.
> 
> [Political comment redacted]


!!   I had not known that last bit.   disgusting.

I did see they were trying to buy exclusive rights from a lab trying to develop vaccine.  lab said no, we do this for All People.


----------



## queenofthehive (Mar 17, 2020)

CO- Skier: I don’t agree with your statements at all. You frivolity towards the whole situation seems extremely irresponsible. It is extremely self centered and I do not think you have a clue to the seriousness of this situation. I hope I am wrong...


----------



## Panina (Mar 17, 2020)

Even with over reacting unless people have consequences for their actions things like this will keep happening

New Jersey woman who tested positive for coronavirus remains 'at large' after giving hospital false name, address

https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-jersey-newark-woman-coronavirus-positive-at-large-public-health-risk


----------



## b2bailey (Mar 17, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.
> 
> I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.
> 
> [Political content redacted]


Not sure what I wrote that was political. I'm pretty sure it was a statement of fact. Oh well.


----------



## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> Not sure what I wrote that was political. I'm pretty sure it was a statement of fact. Oh well.


it was about profit from tests.


----------



## 10spro (Mar 17, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.
> 
> I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.
> 
> [Political content redacted]


Whether you like Newsom or not, at least he is taking action and not trying to sugar-coat it.


----------



## Panina (Mar 18, 2020)

Interesting article, disappointed he didn’t project what happens in the US








						Coronavirus spread is slowing - Says Israeli Nobel Laureate
					

Michael Levitt praised Israel for its preventative measures. He said most people are naturally immune, and that since the infection rate in China is slowing down, "the end of the pandemic is near."




					www.jpost.com


----------



## turkel (Mar 18, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.
> 
> I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.
> 
> [Political content redacted]





10spro said:


> Whether you like Newsom or not, at least he is taking action and not trying to sugar-coat it.


His edict has no teeth. Self quarantine but but but. You can go to work, the doctor, the store and zero enforcement. More about perception than action.

 I am not saying I think self quarantine is bad but essentially it’s a request not something law enforcement is involved with, hence no real action.


----------



## CaliSunshine (Mar 18, 2020)

The bay area county stay at home is enforced by law enforcement. Probably not super heavily, but it's there.


----------



## Chrispee (Mar 18, 2020)

We have the stern government requests here in B.C. too, and my take is that they know a large percentage of the population will abide by it even though it’s not the law. I’m sure that the government knows they can’t do much to enforce, but if you can get 80% of the population to self quarantine or social distance then it’s a successful endeavour.


----------



## WalnutBaron (Mar 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus? (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> With “social distancing” now widely adopted nationwide, a small group of contrarians urge a more careful weighing of the harm as well as the benefits of such policies.
> ...


The extreme measures being taken to slow the spread of the virus is not craziness. If we don't shut down the spread of this thing, it will overwhelm the country's healthcare system almost overnight. By "flattening the curve", we can allow the healthcare facilities to treat the most afflicted over a period of months instead of days or weeks. Think of it like putting all the sick people through a funnel. The bottom of the funnel can only handle so many patients. If we pour too many into the system too fast, it doesn't treat more people--it just means that thousands will not get treatment, will not be contained or quarantined from the general populous, and a complete, uncontrolled breakout will occur.

If you think I'm overhyping this, I encourage you to read "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History" by John Barry. It is both fascinating and terrifying.

There is an excellent discussion on this topic from a thread two years ago on TUG if you're interested.


----------



## geekette (Mar 18, 2020)

Our National Guard has been called up but no information about why.

Most mayors and governors I've seen on TV are very leery about complete lockdown without being able to get food and medicine to people.  It's not feasible, especially in the very dense areas.  Further, we have critical services, food and healthcare are among them,and the people that work in those areas may have kids that need to go somewhere.

The best they can do right now is plead for the public to stay home and not let this thing keep spreading willfully.

.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward (Mar 18, 2020)

Interesting blog post. Zinc supplements, anybody?






						Antiviral drugs – antimalarials and anti HIV may be useful  « JoNova
					






					joannenova.com.au


----------



## Rolltydr (Mar 18, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> Not sure what I wrote that was political. I'm pretty sure it was a statement of fact. Oh well.



On this, I agree with you. I’ve seen much stronger political statements allowed to stand. I hope you were able to read my response before it was taken down but if not, suffice to say we are not necessarily on opposite sides, we just disagree some on tactics. Now, having said that, if we all don’t get on the same side against this virus, it is going to win. I hope that can’t be characterized as political content!


Harry


----------



## vikingsholm (Mar 21, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Provided that of course the people who did not catch it in the first month will never catch it. The problem with that logic is that they can still catch it later, most estimates are that 50-60% of the population will have it sooner or later


The idea is to flatten the curve. New York is about to find out what this means.


----------



## DannyTS (Mar 21, 2020)

vikingsholm said:


> The idea is to flatten the curve. New York is about to find out what this means.


I agree with you , the new numbers show a fatality rate around 1%, much lower than initially expected (4%). Maybe testing and proper care will bring them down even more to around 0.2%








						U.S. COVID-19 Fatality Rate Steady: About 1 Percent | National Review
					

Spikes in reported cases are disturbing, and the death count is heartbreaking. Let’s keep our eye, though, on the fatality rate.




					www.nationalreview.com


----------



## CO skier (Mar 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I saw one estimate saying that one million Americans could die from Covid-19. I have no idea if this is true and it is possible the number of deaths is more like a flu in the end. At least I hope so.


On a positive note, the doomsday modelers in the UK, at least, are walking back their predictions -- by A LOT.

500,000 predicted deaths in the UK to 20,000, and by extension to the US, 2.2 million down to 85,000, which is in the range for an seasonal flu -- and the flu has a vaccine.

This is from today's Corona virus Task Force briefing at the White House (emphasis added):

Dr. Deborah Birx: (51:35)

I’m sure many of you saw the recent report out of the UK about them adjusting completely their needs.  This is really quite important.  If you remember, that was the report that said *there would be 500,000 deaths in the UK, and 2.2 million deaths in the United States.  They have adjusted that number in the UK to 20,000, so half a million to 20,000.*  We are looking at this in great detail to understand that adjustment.

I am going to say something that is a little complicated, but I am going to say it in a way we can all understand it together.  In the model, either you have to have a large group who are asymptomatic, who have never presented for any test in order to have the kind of numbers that were predicted, to get to 60 million people infected or have six million people infected, you have to have a large group of asymptomatics. Because in no country to date have we seen an attack rate over one in a thousand. So either we’re only measuring the tip of the iceberg of the symptomatic cases, and underneath it are a large group of people.

So we’re working very hard to get that antibody test because that’s a good way to figure out who are all these people under here and do they exist? Or we have the transmission completely wrong. *So these are the things we’re looking at because the predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground in either China, South Korea or Italy. *We are about five times the size of Italy (in population).


So if we were Italy and you did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They’re not close to achieving that. So these are the kinds of things we’re trying to understand. Models are models. We’re adapting now to the react… There’s enough data now of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it’s very scary. But we don’t have data that matches that based on the experience.


----------



## am1 (Mar 26, 2020)

17 000 in one day is not a good sign of things to come.  I do not see how what is happening in the US is overreacting.  More is needed.  24 hr lockdown except for food and pharmacy.


----------



## DannyTS (Mar 26, 2020)

CO skier said:


> On a positive note, the doomsday modelers in the UK, at least, are walking back their predictions -- by A LOT.
> 
> 500,000 predicted deaths in the UK to 20,000, and by extension to the US, 2.2 million down to 85,000, which is in the range for an seasonal flu -- and the flu has a vaccine.
> 
> ...


Incredible how they could come with those "predictions" and 2 trillion dollars later it is like, woops, never mind


----------



## CO skier (Mar 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Incredible how they could come with those "predictions" and 2 trillion dollars later it is like, woops, never mind


The worst part is 2 trillion dollars in additional national debt is nowhere near what will be needed to repair the economic damage.  Shutting down the economy is one whopper of an "oops."


----------



## DannyTS (Mar 26, 2020)

CO skier said:


> The worst part is 2 trillion dollars in additional national debt is nowhere near what will be needed to repair the economic damage.  Shutting down the economy is one whopper of an "oops."


the biggest problem is that many businesses especially small will still be wiped out but because of the loans it will just be a slower death


----------



## Talent312 (Mar 26, 2020)

I sense something of an echo chamber in here.
Is anyone saying, "Whoops, let's let another 85K die?"
_... Do we have any volunteers for the front lines?_
.


----------



## bluehende (Mar 26, 2020)

CO skier said:


> On a positive note, the doomsday modelers in the UK, at least, are walking back their predictions -- by A LOT.
> 
> 500,000 predicted deaths in the UK to 20,000, and by extension to the US, 2.2 million down to 85,000, which is in the range for an seasonal flu -- and the flu has a vaccine.
> 
> ...


  Here is the study that was quoted


			https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf
		


That number of deaths is modeled when the population goes to maximum mitigation with a death number of 0.2 deaths per 100,000 per week.  Of course they imply that the rate is down from 2.2 million.  Of course there is a big difference between the worst prediction then and the best prediction now.  You cannot compare the no mitigation number from about a week ago with the most optimistic scenario today.  And the number is many areas of our country are well above that death rate now.  Also a footnote is that those lockdowns must last 300 days for this model.  The other model run was for mitigation at 1.6 deaths per 100,000 per week.  That gives a death rate of  520,000.  This model predicts that we will be somewhere in between depending on when these severe mitigation conditions are applied.  The take home from these models is that reducing contact saves lives.  Below is the exact quote form the study that does not seem to line up with what she said.    

The  accompanying  Excel  spreadsheet  gives  these  results  for  individual  countries. Our estimated impact of an unmitigated scenario in the UK and the USA for a reproduction number, R0, of 2.4 (490,000 deaths and 2,180,000 deaths respectively) closely matches theequivalent  scenarios  using  more  sophisticated  microsimulations  (510,000  and  2,200,000 deaths respectively)8. 


I wish we were told the whole truth just once.


----------



## MrockStar (Mar 26, 2020)

JanT said:


> I don't know if the government is leveling with the American people or not.  What I do know is there are two articles addressing this issue in the news this morning.  I'm taking this seriously.
> 
> In 2011, my 32 year old extremely healthy daughter contracted H1N1.  She went from healthy to being placed in a medically induced coma and on a ventilator because she could no longer breath on her own within 24 hours.  She was in ICU for 11 days on life support and 7 additional days in a regular room.  She recovered only through the grace of God and the many, many prayers said on her behalf, including prayers from so many here on TUG (I will FOREVER be grateful to those of you who prayed so fervently for her).  I will never, ever forget the horror I felt as I watched 3 other families grapple with the deaths of their loved ones from the same virus - a 26 year old, a 40 year old, and a 55 year old.  My own precious daughter fought for her life.  She did recover and has had no further illness but her doctors then told her if she ever even got so much as a sniffle that she is to get herself into a doctor immediately and inform them of what happened to her and to get started on a course of antibiotics.  I am really scared for her with this current virus.  She is taking precautions, of course but she works in the public and I pray every day that she won't be infected.
> 
> ...


JanT my heart goes out to you and your daughter, thank God she recovered. Stay safe.


----------



## MrockStar (Mar 27, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.


Except, they employ thousands of people, some are your neighbors. Also are you going to hitchhike, swim to you timeshare vacation in the Caribbean, Hawaii or Europe?


----------



## Talent312 (Mar 27, 2020)

Hey, let's keep this non-political.
You'd hope that those to whom we look for leadership would be a cut-above, but generally, they have the same head-in-the-sand attitude of the great unwashed.

.


----------



## x3 skier (Mar 27, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> I sense something of an echo chamber in here.
> Is anyone saying, "Whoops, let's let another 85K die?"
> _... Do we have any volunteers for the front lines?_
> .



Raises hand. 

I posted someplace else in the vast numbers of threads on COVID-19 that if I came down with the bug even after following all the recommended procedures, needed a ventilator and someone with a longer life expectancy than I (approaching 80 and in good health) needed one they could have it rather than I and I’ll take my chances. That’s why I have had a DNR, living will and medical POA for many years. I’ve had a great life so far, expect more but if it comes to that, let others benefit.

Just me but I know some friends of my vintage who feel the same.

Cheers


----------



## Makai Guy (Mar 27, 2020)

Bunch of politically oriented posts removed.


----------



## JanT (Mar 27, 2020)

MrockStar,

Thank you so much.  She is healthy today but I can't say I'm not worried right now.  I wonder if she is more susceptible to Coronavirus and check with her every day to make sure she is taking good care of herself and being extra cautious.  Every morning I thank God for saving her so many years ago and I tell Him if He needs to take someone and is thinking of her to please take me instead.  She is 41 with a lot of life before her and I want her to be able to live it.  I love that girl with all my heart and would gladly give my life if it meant saving her.  Again, thank you and please take care of yourself and your family!!  



MrockStar said:


> JanT my heart goes out to you and your daughter, thank God she recovered. Stay safe.


----------



## bluehende (Mar 27, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Raises hand.
> 
> I posted someplace else in the vast numbers of threads on COVID-19 that if I came down with the bug even after following all the recommended procedures, needed a ventilator and someone with a longer life expectancy than I (approaching 80 and in good health) needed one they could have it rather than I and I’ll take my chances. That’s why I have had a DNR, living will and medical POA for many years. I’ve had a great life so far, expect more but if it comes to that, let others benefit
> 
> ...


  I think intellectually we all know this.  I know I feel exactly the same as you, but (there always is a but) I would be damn miffed if everything reasonable was not done before hand to make sure this choice is not needed.  I am not willing to take my chances so an airline has a higher occupancy rate or so Biff and Buffy can have spring break.


----------



## Firepath (Mar 27, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Raises hand.
> 
> I posted someplace else in the vast numbers of threads on COVID-19 that if I came down with the bug even after following all the recommended procedures, needed a ventilator and someone with a longer life expectancy than I (approaching 80 and in good health) needed one they could have it rather than I and I’ll take my chances. That’s why I have had a DNR, living will and medical POA for many years. I’ve had a great life so far, expect more but if it comes to that, let others benefit.
> 
> ...


But when it comes down to it, and we are struggling to breathe, would do anything for a breath of air, would we really give it up? Maybe in theory, but I think the survival instinct might take over in this instance.


----------



## DannyTS (Mar 27, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> I sense something of an echo chamber in here.
> Is anyone saying, "Whoops, let's let another 85K die?"
> _... Do we have any volunteers for the front lines?_
> .


so not reciting what we are being told 24/7 on TV  is an echo chamber, right? US is spending 2 trillion dollars on the Corona virus and this is probably just the down payment. Do you know how many people die annually in the United States and around the world due to inadequate health care? Do we know how many lives can be saved with 2 trillion dollars that otherwise die from poor or complete lack of health care? 

In Britain by the way:

*As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.*









						High consequence infectious diseases (HCID)
					

Guidance and information about high consequence infectious diseases and their management in England.




					www.gov.uk


----------



## x3 skier (Mar 28, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In Britain by the way:
> 
> *As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.*
> 
> ...



I’ve sort of felt that way since this first hit the scene. Thanks for the info.

Cheers


----------



## Talent312 (Mar 28, 2020)

In the order of things, the percentage of peep seriously ill and related-deaths may be relatively low... It's certainly not going wipe out a major portion of the population... but try telling that to the peep who are afflicted or families of those who died, and would've been fine, otherwise.

Sure, it's being hyped way out of proportion. OTOH, that we were unprepared to deal with even a minor pandemic reveals the "what me worry" attitude of this generation as shallow and naive.
.


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## heathpack (Mar 28, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> so not reciting what we are being told 24/7 on TV  is an echo chamber, right? US is spending 2 trillion dollars on the Corona virus and this is probably just the down payment. Do you know how many people die annually in the United States and around the world due to inadequate health care? Do we know how many lives can be saved with 2 trillion dollars that otherwise die from poor or complete lack of health care?
> 
> In Britain by the way:
> 
> ...



This is very misleading.

First: The British epidemiologist who did the initial modeling has not suggested that COVID19 is less of a threat.  Instead, it appears the infection is MORE CONTAGIOUS than their original models assume.  This means MORE PEOPLE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INFECTED.  This means that observing their current rate of death from this disease, the think a lesser percentage of people die than they previously thought.  This results in a recalculation of the case fatality rate to be lower.  But it does NOT MEAN LESS DEATHS.  If 200 million people become infected with a CF rate of 1%, that’s 200,000 deaths.  If 750,000 people become infected with a CF rate of 2%, that’s only (???) 150,000 deaths.

Second:  A High Consequence Infectious Disease is a disease that by definition has X% lethality.  It’s a public health term.  If you figure out that more people have/get the disease than you thought, and therefore you figure out that the percentage of people who die is lower (even if the absolute number of projected deaths become higher as a result of this new understanding of higher contagiousness), then you move this disease out of the HCID category.  But this does not mean that the threat to society is reduced.

This is a bad nasty virus.  I know it’s appealing to downplay it because it’s more comfortable to believe it’s being overhyped.  But: it’s not being overhyped.

Stay the course everyone.  The high degree of contagiousness with this virus screams loudly: stay home, the hospital systems will get overwhelmed.  Do your part.  Stay strong.

And TUGGERS always stay well.


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## Rolltydr (Mar 28, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> In the order of things, the percentage of peep seriously ill and related-deaths may be relatively low... It's certainly not going wipe out a major portion of the population... but try telling that to the peep who are afflicted or families of those who died, and would've been fine, otherwise.
> 
> Sure, it's being hyped way out of proportion. OTOH, that we were unprepared to deal with even a minor pandemic reveals the "what me worry" attitude of this generation as shallow and naive.
> .


I agree with much of what you said but not sure which generation you’re referring to? The generation (mostly baby boomers)  that wasn’t prepared to deal with it, denied that it was serious and reacted very slowly? Or, the generation (mostly teenagers and twenty somethings) of beach-goers and partiers that refuse to take it seriously even now?


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## DannyTS (Mar 28, 2020)

heathpack said:


> This is very misleading.
> 
> First: The British epidemiologist who did the initial modeling has not suggested that COVID19 is less of a threat.  Instead, it appears the infection is MORE CONTAGIOUS than their original models assume.  This means MORE PEOPLE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INFECTED.  This means that observing their current rate of death from this disease, the think a lesser percentage of people die than they previously thought.  This results in a recalculation of the case fatality rate to be lower.  But it does NOT MEAN LESS DEATHS.  If 200 million people become infected with a CF rate of 1%, that’s 200,000 deaths.  If 750,000 people become infected with a CF rate of 2%, that’s only (???) 150,000 deaths.
> 
> ...


The mortality rate in Britain is 0.5% and it is probably grossly overstated because those with mild symptoms or with no symptoms do not get tested. That may put us well within the range of the normal influenza if not lower. 

Let's ignore COVID19 completely for a second? If you were given a budget of 2 trillion dollars to save lives in the United States what would you do with the money to yield the highest number of saved lives?


----------



## bbodb1 (Mar 28, 2020)

I would not put it anywhere near the current health care system as most of it would likely end up as bonuses in executive pockets..


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## DannyTS (Mar 28, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I would not put it anywhere near the current health care system as most of it would likely end up as bonuses in executive pockets..


So 2 trillion dollars would end up as bonuses in executive pockets. Hmm, I had to repeat that.

But let me play along with you, say 200 billion dollars would indeed end up as bonuses. How would you spend the rest of 1800 billion dollars to save the most lives?


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## heathpack (Mar 28, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> The mortality rate in Britain is 0.5% and it is probably grossly overstated because those with mild symptoms or with no symptoms do not get tested. That may put us well within the range of the normal influenza if not lower.
> 
> Let's ignore COVID19 completely for a second? If you were given a budget of 2 trillion dollars to save lives in the United States what would you do with the money to yield the highest number of saved lives?



Early in an epidemic you can’t understand much from preliminary numbers.  The U.K. right now has incomplete information.

Probably the best information on “true” mortality rate has come out of South Korea, where they tested widely and implemented a solid public health plan early on.  If you test a lot of people and do all the right things to mitigate deaths, you’ll probably see a 1% mortality rate like South Korea did.

But remember: doing it right means you have a lower mortality rate because once the hospitals become overwhelmed, more people die just because that can’t receive optimal care.  So the US mortality rate is likely to be higher.  Just like in the UK, though, it’s too early to say.

However if we say that we expect an 80% infection rate in the US (realistic), that 80% of 300 million people infected.   That’s 240 million people infected and with a 1% mortality rate (rosy for the US), that’s 240,000 deaths, not to mention collateral deaths from people not receiving care for other conditions due to a collapsed healthcare system.  Even with a 0.5% mortality rate, that’s still 120,000 American lives.

The cost of all this is a disaster, no matter how you cut it.  Not being prepared was a hugely expensive mistake.  But that is water under the bridge now.  We’ve got to move forward.

If this is all overblown like you feel, Danny, it will be an expensive blip because we’ll all be back to work soon enough and most of that stimulus package won’t be needed.  If it IS as bad as the people who have made careers of understanding this say, then the only way out is serious lockdown now, and implement widespread testing and targeted quarantines a la South Korea so that we can get back to work to the extent that we can.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 28, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> So 2 trillion dollars would end up as bonuses in executive pockets. Hmm, I had to repeat that.
> 
> But let me play along with you, say 200 billion dollars would indeed end up as bonuses. How would you spend the rest of 1800 billion dollars to save the most lives?


You don't think executives wouldn't find a way to try and do that?  Okay, maybe not all 2 trillion....but a lot of it.  

Seriously now.  

I think any solution to our current health care system needs to have three outcomes:
1) The innovation aspect of developing medicines, vaccines, procedures, etc must have a system in which these things can still be done. 
2) The current delivery of health care needs to change (perhaps a better term is evolve).  
3) Separating health care insurance from the workplace.

If these three outcomes could be implemented, I think the health care system could be reformed.


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## DannyTS (Mar 28, 2020)

heathpack said:


> If this is all overblown like you feel, Danny, it will be an expensive blip because we’ll all be back to work soon enough and most of that stimulus package won’t be needed.  If it IS as bad as the people who have made careers of understanding this say, then the only way out is serious lockdown now, and implement widespread testing and targeted quarantines a la South Korea so that we can get back to work to the extent that we can.



On March 16 when the 2 week self isolation recommendation started, there were 1905 new cases reported in the United States. Say we continue the containment measures at the same level (or higher in many places) and after peaking in 3 weeks,the number of new cases will start to go down and  in 2 months from now we will have 1905 new cases per day. What makes you think that those new cases will not lead to an exponential growth from that moment if the measures are relaxed? And can the measures be kept in place indefinitely until the number of new cases is zero?


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## heathpack (Mar 28, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> On March 16 when the 2 week self isolation recommendation started, there were 1905 new cases reported in the United States. Say we continue the containment measures at the same level (or higher in many places) and after peaking in 3 weeks,the number of new cases will start to go down and  in 2 months from now we will have 1905 new cases per day. What makes you think that those new cases will not lead to an exponential growth from that moment if the measures are relaxed? And can the measures be kept in place indefinitely until the number of new cases is zero?



Danny, South Korea has contained this disease with widespread testing and contact tracing, with quarantine of infected individuals and their contacts.  They did not have to lock their society down and business has continued throughout.

We have not done any of that (or at least only a tiny sliver of a percent of what it would take to be effective) so we are in a mess.  The new case rate we are seeing in the US is the result of managing it badly from a public health perspective, but it does not need to (and I would argue from an economic perspective cannot) continue to unfold in the manner in which it is.  That is the whole point of the stringent lockdown now- to buy us time to get the appropriate response in place.  Sadly you are not hearing this discussed in the public sphere, because I think that would indeed help the general population understand what is happening now and to buy into it a little better.  And yes, it worries me too that I don't hear this message coming from the federal government.  BUT if smart people are kept on the job, this is what the epidemiologists and public health experts will do even if that is not the message that we're hearing.

The only way out of this is by being smart and looking at the science.  The science really does need to be evaluated by the people with the expertise to understand it (ie public health professionals, epidemiologists and so on) and the rest of us have to listen and comply.  There is a way out of this for sure, but people have to give it a minute.

BTW, what are my qualifications for discussing this?  I'm not a public health official or an epidemiologist.  I'm a veterinarian.  We spend a boatload of time on epidemiology, population medicine, infectious diseases, and public health- perhaps 15-20% of a 4 year curriculum.  I spend two months in my clinical year just learning about "herd and flock" medicine.  Then I went on after vet school and pursued residency training in neurology and neurosurgery, which in vet med is a subspecialty of internal medicine.  So on a post-graduate level, I had to pass very challenging advance internal medicine tests before I could even try to pass my neurology and neurosurgery test.  I've participated for 25 years now in a regular intellectual exercise called 'journal club," in which a group gets together to critique the validity of the conclusions drawn in peer-reviewed publications- is the article has already been vetted by smart people but we still sit down to discuss what the data 'really' supports.  At work, 75% of what I do is urgent and emergency things.   In short, I have extensive education in population medicine (more than an MD would get) and individual medicine, plus lots of experience in reading medical information and understanding it/critiquing it.

So I'm confident when I state this is not hype, its not overblown and there is an exit strategy if we don't let politics get in the way.


----------



## bogey21 (Mar 28, 2020)

Yes.  It is over hyped and sensationalized by the media.  But what is being done is necessary in many places.  We don't need multiple NYC situations...

Note that I live in a CCRC populated with about 450 Seniors with an average age of about 85.  Many have health issues.  So far, so good as we are on almost total lock down.  No visitors unless imminent death situation; employees checked daily by medical professionals every day before they are allowed in;  meals delivered to our apartments; no group activities, etc.  What they are doing is overkill but IMO necessary.  An infection in here could spread like wildfire...

George


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## x3 skier (Mar 28, 2020)

As has been reported widely, those most at risk are those pre existing conditions and a large percentage of those who have died were such people. My wife who died some 6 years ago from COPD and other problems would have certainly been an identified victim of COVID-19 if she had still been alive and had been infected. OTHO, she may have passed the next day and never experienced COVID-19. Does this mean COVID-19 killed her or was it just something else that just existed at the time of death?

When death rates are published, how do they establish that COVID-19 was THE cause and not something that merely was present at the time of death?  For example, five elderly people in a nursing home near me died after they tested positive for COVID-19. They also were reported to have underlying health issues.  So did they die of the virus or did they die with the virus or did they die sooner because they had the virus?

This has some real affect on the actual death rate and I hope those charged with providing advice on future courses of actions like Drs. Brix and Fauci are attempting to understand. There’s a difference between a projection of 240000 deaths and 50000 deaths (which is in the range of annual flu deaths in the USA).

Cheers


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## "Roger" (Mar 28, 2020)

A follow up to Heathpack's first paragraph, see the quoted passage from the Washington Post below.

Two notes: I would not normally post an extended quote from a newspaper on TUG, but in this case the Washington Post is allowing free access to their articles on coronavirus. I would have provided a link, but the passage comes from a long series of updates and cannot be isolated.

When Heathpack says that South Korea has been doing massive testing, the last comparison I saw was, adjusted for per capita, for every person tested in the United States, South Korea has tested 139 of its citizens. They have gone from one of the early hotbeds to perhaps the most hopeful. If only we had followed a similar path.

*South Korea records more coronavirus recoveries than patients currently in treatment*
South Korea marked a new milestone on Saturday, as more coronavirus patients, 4,811 total, have been discharged than those currently undergoing treatment, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
About 4,500 people still remain in isolation and are undergoing treatment.
Cases were first confirmed in South Korea on Jan. 20, and spiked dramatically in the following months. A huge cluster was linked to a religious sect in Daegu, who got sick in February. But public health experts there say that the country has now managed to slow the tide, and achieve a 50 percent recovery rate — a significant achievement.
South Korea has been routinely held up as one of the model countries for responding to the coronavirus outbreak, and has been praised for very aggressively testing suspected patients at one of the highest rates in the world. Officials in Seoul are now preparing new guidelines to ease the megacity back into normalcy, a process that will be closely watched.


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## DannyTS (Mar 28, 2020)

heathpack said:


> Danny, South Korea has contained this disease with widespread testing and contact tracing, with quarantine of infected individuals and their contacts.  They did not have to lock their society down and business has continued throughout.
> 
> We have not done any of that (or at least only a tiny sliver of a percent of what it would take to be effective) so we are in a mess.  The new case rate we are seeing in the US is the result of managing it badly from a public health perspective, but it does not need to (and I would argue from an economic perspective cannot) continue to unfold in the manner in which it is.  That is the whole point of the stringent lockdown now- to buy us time to get the appropriate response in place.  Sadly you are not hearing this discussed in the public sphere, because I think that would indeed help the general population understand what is happening now and to buy into it a little better.  And yes, it worries me too that I don't hear this message coming from the federal government.  BUT if smart people are kept on the job, this is what the epidemiologists and public health experts will do even if that is not the message that we're hearing.
> 
> ...


I actually agree with everything you wrote.

 I just hope that when all the ventilators, PPE, the temporary care units and the test kits will be in place, we will go back to a relatively normal life while still taking precautions.


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## VacationForever (Mar 28, 2020)

It keeps getting reported high death rates in those with pre-existing health conditions.  One third of US population has high blood pressure, which is one of the high risk pre-existing conditions.  That is alot of people with one of the pre-existing conditions.   For those who think COVID-19 is overhyped, you are burying your heads in the sand.

When we discussed with our PCP on Telehealth yesterday.  He said forget about media reports of pre-existing conditions.  The seriousness of COVID-19 infection is age-based.  If you are old and you get it, you are toast and pray hard.


----------



## Maverick1963 (Mar 28, 2020)

I live in Japan and work in Tokyo. In Japan, it was possible to identify infection routes regarding the earlier cases. The newly reported cases on March 28 was about 200 against 126 mil population nationwide. We are seeing more of cases whose infection routes cannot be found. In Tokyo with 11 mil population, the new cases were like 40, 40, 60 for the past three day.  We are facing the phase where we may or may not see overshoot of infections. 

Maybe you know all of the following ...

In US, my understanding is that infection routes were not identified from the beginning.  Infections occurred and spread nationally while the big cities in New York and California are suffering more right now.  This infection pattern should be considered to be very serious and dangerous, just because it indicates the virus is traveling freely within US.

The danger of COVID19 lies in the fact that there is no medicine and no vaccine.  It take 18 months to develop vaccine.  COVID19 can spread very quickly and puts older people and those with chronic illness at a greater risk. Also young people may not show symptoms even after they are infected with COVID19.  That means those young people spread the virus unwittingly. 

These facts and nature of COVID19 are very ominous because overshoot or sudden huge surge of infections is really possible.  Hospitals can cure patients if it is only a dozen of infected cases in a serious conditions.  But if it is 100, 200 or 1,000 infections on a given day, the spread will not stop. COVID19 can completely break the healthcare system.  I saw a New York Times video posted by an ER doctor in New York.  There are 200 ER patients on a normal day.  It's 400 now. Ventilators will not be available until death makes vacancy.

Because there is no medicine for COVID19, the only preventive action is stop physical infections among people. This hurts economy very much.  Small businesses will face live or die situation.  But if we just let infections happen, there will be more casualties and we do not know how many lives will be lost.  While the state of Hawaii still has a small number of infections, Governor has called for closure of business and suspension of visitors.  Hawaii depends upon tourism and visitors from around the world. I believe the state government put the priority on stopping spread as early as possible.  Hawaii may not be able to survive if they just see spread happening.

I understand people have different feelings, depending upon where they live. However, the preventive actions should not be considered to be over-reacting even if they are extreme and harsh.  Likewise monetary support from the government is essential to prevent spread and economic crisis at the same time. Understanding such salvation is very risky and and may distort economy further after long money easing (QE), I hope government (not only US but also Japan) will distribute the support to those who really need it.  

What we can do to stop spread is --- Minimize time to go out and to meet people. Not to go to places where people gather (churches, restaurants, bars, etc.).  Wash hands.  No shake hands, no hugs, no kisses.  Rinse your mouth first and gargle.  Not to to touch your face when outside.


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## bluehende (Mar 28, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> The mortality rate in Britain is 0.5% and it is probably grossly overstated because those with mild symptoms or with no symptoms do not get tested. That may put us well within the range of the normal influenza if not lower.
> 
> Let's ignore COVID19 completely for a second? If you were given a budget of 2 trillion dollars to save lives in the United States what would you do with the money to yield the highest number of saved lives?


  Your premise seems to think there would be no impact to the economy if we let this virus just run it's course.  The modeling would suggest under those circumstances the US would have 2.2 million deaths and 150 million sick.  Do not think that the 80% that self resolve are not sick.  Many are very sick.  The cost would be astronomical in not only health care but interruption of 10's of millions off from work for weeks.  It is a very false notion that we would be happily motoring along if we let it run it's course.  Imagine the cost if the Hospitals were closed due to being completely overwhelmed and millions were dying.  The overwhelming percentage of this money going to rescue the economy would have been needed regardless.  The time for leveraging our dollars was before it hit us and there is enough blame for this to go around.  I absolutely agree with you that 2 trillion dollars would be great and would save countless lives, however that choice was made long ago and is no longer available to us.


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## Brett (Mar 28, 2020)

*Sweden has a different approach to the coronavirus*

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

"Sweden has drawn global attention with an unorthodox approach while its neighbors have imposed extensive restrictions.

Sweden has stayed open for business while other nations beyond Scandinavia have attacked the outbreak with various measures ambitious in scope and reach. Sweden’s approach has raised questions about whether it’s gambling with a disease.

Restaurants are open and people can be seen casually dining and enjoying cappuccinos. Playgrounds are full of running, screaming children. Restaurants, gyms, malls and ski slopes have thinned out but are still in use.

Sweden’s approach appeals to the public’s self-restraint and sense of responsibility, Mr. Tegnell said. “That’s the way we work in Sweden. Our whole system for communicable disease control is based on voluntary action. The immunization system is completely voluntary and there is 98 percent coverage,” he explained."


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## DannyTS (Mar 28, 2020)

Brett said:


> *Sweden has a different approach to the coronavirus*
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
> 
> ...


this is not under a paywall:









						Sweden Plots Controversial Course As Life Goes On Largely Unchanged Amid Pandemic
					

Sweden has adopted a largely "business-as-usual" approach to the coronavirus pandemic.




					www.rferl.org


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## youppi (Mar 28, 2020)

Comparing Canada and USA, it seems worst in USA at this moment (data change all the time so the following data could be not accurate).
Per million of population, USA has tested 2 time less people, has 2 times more positive test and 3 times more death  than Canada.



Source:





						COVID-19: Outbreak update - Canada.ca
					

Information for Canadians on COVID-19 (coronavirus) including current cases, risk, monitoring, COVID-19 variants and how to get updates.




					www.canada.ca
				











						The Data
					

Our most up-to-date data on COVID-19 in the US.




					covidtracking.com
				








						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
				




I didn't use this one https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


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## davidvel (Mar 28, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> It keeps getting reported high death rates in those with pre-existing health conditions.  One third of US population has high blood pressure, which is one of the high risk pre-existing conditions.  That is alot of people with one of the pre-existing conditions.   For those who think COVID-19 is overhyped, you are burying your heads in the sand.
> 
> When we discussed with our PCP on Telehealth yesterday.  He said forget about media reports of pre-existing conditions.  The seriousness of COVID-19 infection is age-based.  If you are old and you get it, you are toast and pray hard.


Not sure where your doctor is getting their (mis) information. Even for people in their 70s and 80s the death rate is under 10%, meaning over 90% of them will not die. And those #s are based on confirmed positive cases.


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## TravelTime (Mar 28, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Not sure where your doctor is getting their (mis) information. Even for people in their 70s and 80s the death rate is under 10%, meaning over 90% of them will not die. And those #s are based on confirmed positive cases.



Sanjay Gupta on CNN said the death rate for the elderly is still low. Older people can and do recover.


----------



## bluehende (Mar 28, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Not sure where your doctor is getting their (mis) information. Even for people in their 70s and 80s the death rate is under 10%, meaning over 90% of them will not die. And those #s are based on confirmed positive cases.



I would assume that the actual death rate per capita is below that even with no remediation, however we need to remember that there are 47 million people over the age of 70 in this country.


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## pedro47 (Mar 28, 2020)

Is the United States of America under or overreacting on the COVID-19???
We need to wait until the end of March 2020 and then we can compare our US data with the following countries China, Singapore, South Korea, Russia and Italy ? 

Also, by the end of March 2020, we will have some good data from the following  United States states New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, California, Washington, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Virginia, and Louisiana. Hopefully, by the end of March, all US States and territories will have received some medical supplies and equipments from our federal government..


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## x3 skier (Mar 28, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> He said forget about media reports of pre-existing conditions.  The seriousness of COVID-19 infection is age-based.  If you are old and you get it, you are toast and pray hard.



This would seem to mean that just about everyone living in a retirement home where there is a COVID-19 infection “are toast”.  No indication that this is anything like reality. I would ask the PCP for some facts or reports that back his assertion.

Cheers


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## am1 (Mar 28, 2020)

Not die yet.  But being in the icu for 2 weeks has long term affects.  Those are high death rates.  The US has not handled it well and now not sure what steps can be taken to right the ship.


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## Chrispee (Mar 28, 2020)

I can’t believe there are still people questioning if the USA is overreacting to the threat of Covid-19. Just look at an infection charts and consider the potential contributing factors and assess how US government and citizens are reacting in comparison to other countries that are further along the timeline:

ability/willingness to do testing
education level of the population as it correlates to being able to interpret statistics and make informed decisions
willingness of individual citizens to make personal sacrifices for the greater good of society
healthcare system flexible to open up beds and equipment for a large influx of patients


----------



## VacationForever (Mar 28, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Not sure where your doctor is getting their (mis) information. Even for people in their 70s and 80s the death rate is under 10%, meaning over 90% of them will not die. And those #s are based on confirmed positive cases.


Even with 10% chance you are talking about 1 in 10 will die, and some of the other 9 will have severe damage to the lungs in that the next time they get a respiratory infection recovery will also be harder.  I like my chances better by not catching it.


----------



## VacationForever (Mar 28, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> This would seem to mean that just about everyone living in a retirement home where there is a COVID-19 infection “are toast”.  No indication that this is anything like reality. I would ask the PCP for some facts or reports that back his assertion.
> 
> Cheers


Sure, look at the Washington retirement home.


----------



## WVBaker (Mar 28, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> I like my chances better by not catching it.



Absolutely however, unless you're living in a hermetically sealed device with no contact whatsoever from another human being, there's no way you can guarantee that.


----------



## bbodb1 (Mar 28, 2020)

Maybe part of the problem is the question  - are we overreacting has only two possible answers and may not be the proper question to consider.

Without jumping too far down the rabbit hole, perhaps the question we should be considering/answering is what form(s) should our reaction have taken?  What should a proper reaction have looked like?  Do we have the proper resources and preparation to respond to a similar crisis in the future?


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 28, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Maybe part of the problem is the question  - are we overreacting has only two possible answers and may not be the proper question to consider.
> 
> Without jumping too far down the rabbit hole, perhaps the question we should be considering/answering is what form(s) should our reaction have taken?  What should a proper reaction have looked like?  Do we have the proper resources and preparation to respond to a similar crisis in the future?



Yes, good questions. It is not either/or.


----------



## bbodb1 (Mar 28, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Absolutely however, unless you're living in a hermetically sealed device with no contact whatsoever from another human being, there's no way you can guarantee that.


Okay, we are going there!


----------



## b2bailey (Mar 28, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Raises hand.
> 
> I posted someplace else in the vast numbers of threads on COVID-19 that if I came down with the bug even after following all the recommended procedures, needed a ventilator and someone with a longer life expectancy than I (approaching 80 and in good health) needed one they could have it rather than I and I’ll take my chances. That’s why I have had a DNR, living will and medical POA for many years. I’ve had a great life so far, expect more but if it comes to that, let others benefit.
> 
> ...


I am guessing most of us would swap our lives for any one of our grandchildren.


----------



## b2bailey (Mar 28, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> It keeps getting reported high death rates in those with pre-existing health conditions.  One third of US population has high blood pressure, which is one of the high risk pre-existing conditions.  That is alot of people with one of the pre-existing conditions.   For those who think COVID-19 is overhyped, you are burying your heads in the sand.
> 
> When we discussed with our PCP on Telehealth yesterday.  He said forget about media reports of pre-existing conditions.  The seriousness of COVID-19 infection is age-based.  If you are old and you get it, you are toast and pray hard.


I've been thinking the only condition I have is my age. Same for my sister. After watching presentation by doctor, I realized she has age + high blood pressure + BMI  over 40 (obese). She would be in big trouble.


----------



## Panina (Mar 28, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> I've been thinking the only condition I have is my age. Same for my sister. After watching presentation by doctor, I realized she has age + high blood pressure + BMI  over 40 (obese). She would be in big trouble.


Younger, healthier people that are not high risk are also not making it.  Anyone can be in big trouble.


----------



## b2bailey (Mar 28, 2020)

Panina said:


> Younger, healthier people that are not high risk are also not making it.  Anyone can be in big trouble.


Bigger trouble.


----------



## x3 skier (Mar 28, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Sure, look at the Washington retirement home.



Have they all died?  I don’t know the rate at that facility.

There is a retirement home near where I live where five residents have died attributed to the virus, all with “underlying health issues” out of a population of a couple hundred.

My point is the PCP quoted stated that if you are elderly and contract the virus “you are toast” regardless of your general health which implies that the large majority of elderly people in the world will be dead from the virus given the contagious nature of the disease.  This seems to be a quite astounding position.

Cheers


----------



## VacationForever (Mar 28, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Have they all died?  I don’t know the rate at that facility.
> 
> There is a retirement home near where I live where five residents have died attributed to the virus, all with “underlying health issues” out of a population of a couple hundred.
> 
> ...


You want to go catch the virus and report back to us?  We don't want to try.


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 28, 2020)

Here are some stats from the CDC on the mortality rate for the elderly:


Estimated percent who died
10-27% of adults 85 years old and older
4-11% of adults 65-84 years old










						COVID-19 and Your Health
					

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## billymach4 (Mar 28, 2020)

OK Let me ask the OP as of this date? Have we over-reacted?


----------



## Brett (Mar 28, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> OK Let me ask the OP as of this date? Have we over-reacted?




I thinking the OP would say yes ..... but they originally referenced a NY Times article and their own small business


----------



## x3 skier (Mar 28, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Here are some stats from the CDC on the mortality rate for the elderly:
> 
> 
> Estimated percent who died
> ...



Seems a far cry from being toast if you become infected. Not a good thing but in my age group still a 90% probability of recovery if I become infected even if I had been taking all recommended precautions (I do).

Cheers


----------



## CO skier (Mar 28, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> I sense something of an echo chamber in here.
> Is anyone saying, "Whoops, let's let another 85K die?"
> _... Do we have any volunteers for the front lines?_
> .


That is the grave misconception of our political leaders.  Covid-19 is likely here to stay, just like the seasonal flu.  The susceptible "another 85K" will likely die from the Covid-19 complications at some (nearby) point no matter what is done.  "Flattening the curve" just stretches out the timeline by a little (and we are too far along the exponential curve for "stay-at-home" orders to affect the course of the disease).

The CDC estimate for this year's seasonal flu mortality up to mid-March is 29,000-59,000 -- and that is with a flu vaccine available.  About average, and no one has ever suggested shutting down the economy because "another 29,000 - 59,000" will die this year, and next year, and the next year after that.

No one knows if Covid-19 will "go away" in the warmer months like the seasonal flu (Covid-19 is raging in tropical climates).  What if it does not go away?  85K and more will die, no matter what is done.  What if it goes away, the economy is reopened, but it reappears seasonally, as the flu or viciously as the 1918 return of the Spanish flu?  Do we shut down the economy again next year, and the year after that, and the year after that, ... because people will predictably die?


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 28, 2020)

In this study, they are predicting 81K Americans will die from Covid-19. No one wants any deaths but this is a far cry from millions.









						Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months
					

Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United States?




					www.healthdata.org


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 28, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> OK Let me ask the OP as of this date? Have we over-reacted?



I do not know but I hope the answer is yes because that would mean there will be many fewer deaths than the worst case scenarios.


----------



## Mongoose (Mar 28, 2020)

Testing is the game changer.  The FDA just approved a new 5 minute test.  With these we can identify and isolate those that are infected and stop the spread quickly.  This should be under control in the next 4 weeks, but there will be a lot more cases and fatalities.  The good news is the projected case mortality rate has dropped from 3.4% to about 1%.  Still 10x higher than the seasonal flu but much better than the original estimate of 34X.


----------



## bluehende (Mar 29, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> In this study, they are predicting 81K Americans will die from Covid-19. No one wants any deaths but this is a far cry from millions.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


  Relevent passage from the article.

The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on *the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic*, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths. 


Like a lot of people are saying.  The death total will be big even with maximum precautions in the entire USA.  You cannot advocate there is an over reaction and then quote a paper that includes the over reaction in their death estimates.


----------



## davidvel (Mar 29, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Even with 10% chance you are talking about 1 in 10 will die, and some of the other 9 will have severe damage to the lungs in that the next time they get a respiratory infection recovery will also be harder.  I like my chances better by not catching it.


What you describe above is what I reported, and a far cry from your doctor's description that "you are toast" if you are old: 


VacationForever said:


> When we discussed with our PCP on Telehealth yesterday.  He said forget about media reports of pre-existing conditions.  The seriousness of COVID-19 infection is age-based.  If you are old and you get it, you are toast and pray hard.


I haven't seen any data supporting your contention of "severe damage to the lungs" in those that recover.


----------



## Maverick1963 (Mar 29, 2020)

'Off The Charts': Coronavirus Hot Spots Grow In Midwest
					

The spread of COVID-19 is making its way into big cities like Detroit and Chicago along with small, rural towns.




					www.huffpost.com
				




The message from Michigan Governor is very clear.


----------



## VacationForever (Mar 29, 2020)

davidvel said:


> What you describe above is what I reported, and a far cry from your doctor's description that "you are toast" if you are old:
> 
> I haven't seen any data supporting your contention of "severe damage to the lungs" in those that recover.


Did you watch the video by a doctor which was posted by a TUGger a couple of days ago?


----------



## Rolltydr (Mar 29, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Did you watch the video by a doctor which was posted by a TUGger a couple of days ago?


You’re probably going to have to narrow that down a little bit. Or better yet, post a link.


----------



## DannyTS (Mar 29, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Here are some stats from the CDC on the mortality rate for the elderly:
> 
> 
> Estimated percent who died
> ...


 I am not sure why they do not compare to the "normal" age-specific death rates. As you can see below about 13.5 % of the people 85 or over die annually for a number of reasons. Why do we have to be so shocked that 10-20% may die from Coronavirus? Who tells us if this is in addition to the normal deaths or if these people (sorry to sound cynical) were going to die anyways. I know, there is always anecdotal evidence that "healthy" people just died from the virus. But that actually happens all the time with persons that seemed to be perfectly stable and for some reasons die 2 weeks later.








__





						Products - Data Briefs - Number 355 - January 2020
					

Educational Attainment of Mothers Aged 25 and Over: United States, 2017




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## VacationForever (Mar 29, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> You’re probably going to have to narrow that down a little bit. Or better yet, post a link.


It was in one of the many COVID-19 threads posted by someone else.


----------



## Rolltydr (Mar 29, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> It was in one of the many COVID-19 threads posted by someone else.



I don’t know about @davidvel, but if you seriously want me to read or view something, you need to provide a link to it. Don’t ask me if I saw something somebody posted on one “of the many COVID-19 threads” and just expect me to go down the rabbit hole searching for a video of a doctor. Either tell us what you’re talking about or link us to what you’re talking about. If it isn’t important enough for you to search for it, why do you think it’s that important to anyone else?


----------



## VacationForever (Mar 29, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> I don’t know about @davidvel, but if you seriously want me to read or view something, you need to provide a link to it. Don’t ask me if I saw something somebody posted on one “of the many COVID-19 threads” and just expect me to go down the rabbit hole searching for a video of a doctor. Either tell us what you’re talking about or link us to what you’re talking about. If it isn’t important enough for you to search for it, why do you think it’s that important to anyone else?


If you have read the threads, it was there.   It was important enough for me that when I was reading that thread I watched the video.  If it is important to you, you can search for it.  I am not wasting my time to convince you or anyone the seriousness of COVID-19.  I came here to share what my PCP told us which is out of the goodness of my heart.  If you don't want to believe it, you can just ignore what I posted.


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 29, 2020)

Are you talking about this video of the doctor washing his groceries? Or is it another video? I have not seen another video circulating on TUG so I wonder what video you are talking about.









						A Michigan doctor advises sanitizing groceries to prevent coronavirus spread — but others say washing produce with soap is a bad idea
					

A Michigan doctor is advising people to leave their groceries outside for three days before touching them to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. If...




					www.metrotimes.com
				




Was there a doctor video saying that all older people will die from the virus?


----------



## Rolltydr (Mar 29, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> If you have read the threads, it was there. It was important enough for me that when I was reading that thread I watched the video. If it is important to you, you can search for it. I am not wasting my time to convince you or anyone the seriousness of COVID-19. I came here to share what my PCP told us which is out of the goodness of my heart. If you don't want to believe it, you can just ignore what I posted.



I’m not the one you have to convince. I know it is serious because that is what the experts have been telling us from the very beginning. I’m trying to help you make your point. If you know there is a video that will help your argument, you need to present it. You can’t give a very general description and tell people to go find it. They aren’t going to.


Harry


----------



## VacationForever (Mar 29, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Are you talking about this video of the doctor washing his groceries? Or is it another video? I have not seen another video circulating on TUG so I wonder what video you are talking about.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


No.  It was a 30-minute video made by an American Vietnamese doctor who described what happens to the lungs, and he used sponges to show the before and after of the lungs of a COVID-19 patient who developed pneumonia.


----------



## jbiza (Mar 29, 2020)

Not sure about that video you're referring to but you can check this video out:









						Doctors produce 3D view of the inside of COVID-19 patient's lungs
					

A doctor has created a virtual rendering of what the inside of a lung of a patient with the coronavirus looks like, he believes it will send a powerful message to the public.




					www.wmur.com


----------



## WalnutBaron (Mar 30, 2020)

jbiza said:


> Not sure about that video you're referring to but you can check this video out:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thank you. That video is both enlightening and frightening all at the same time. COVID-19 is nothing to mess around with. Even for those who recover, it appears there might be some permanent damage or compromised lung capacity.


----------



## jbiza (Mar 30, 2020)

WalnutBaron said:


> Thank you. That video is both enlightening and frightening all at the same time. COVID-19 is nothing to mess around with. Even for those who recover, it appears there might be some permanent damage or compromised lung capacity.




Thank you  ,  &, ALL of the TUG community for providing insightful comments, informative tips, suggestions, & even moments of levity,  that are all much needed as we all deal with COVID-19 in some form or fashion.


----------



## Old Hickory (Mar 30, 2020)

We're all in trouble it's just how much trouble.


----------



## x3 skier (Mar 31, 2020)

Something I learned early in my engineering studies over 50 years ago.

“A model is a simplification or approximation of reality and hence will not reflect all of reality. ... Box noted that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." While a model can never be "truth," a model might be ranked from very useful, to useful, to somewhat useful to, finally, essentially useless.“

Thus the wide variation in predicting what will happen. As more data is received and analyzed, models are refined and the results are modified.

Cheers


----------



## x3 skier (Mar 31, 2020)

From an interview from the Director of The Centers for Disease Control.

“At the end of the day, most of us who get this infection will recover. The majority of people do — probably 98%, almost 98.5%, 99% recover. The challenge is the older, the vulnerable, the elderly, those with significant medical conditions where this virus has shown a propensity to have a significant mortality.”

https://apple.news/AZWeq6JfQTsuAUyB5BoY4HQ

Cheers


----------



## geekette (Mar 31, 2020)

Well, sure, but that's still a lot of people that won't have a good outcome.  Look around the grocery store and pick the 2 that get a bad outcome.  Nobody knows.


----------



## Brett (Mar 31, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> From an interview from the Director of The Centers for Disease Control.
> 
> “At the end of the day, most of us who get this infection will recover. The majority of people do — probably 98%, almost 98.5%, 99% recover. The challenge is the older, the vulnerable, the elderly, those with significant medical conditions where this virus has shown a propensity to have a significant mortality.”
> 
> ...



yes, the challenge is to the older population .....  which may fit the demographic on this forum !


----------



## VacationForever (Mar 31, 2020)

Found the video by a doctor that explains how COVID-19 kills here.


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 31, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> From an interview from the Director of The Centers for Disease Control.
> 
> “At the end of the day, most of us who get this infection will recover. The majority of people do — probably 98%, almost 98.5%, 99% recover. The challenge is the older, the vulnerable, the elderly, those with significant medical conditions where this virus has shown a propensity to have a significant mortality.”
> 
> ...



If this is true, then why not just quarantine those who are most vulnerable?


----------



## Panina (Mar 31, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> If this is true, then why not just quarantine those who are most vulnerable?


Because they really aren’t sure.  Younger people with no underlining conditions are not making it.  Plus underlining conditions can be high blood pressure and being diabetic which is a large percentage of our population.


----------



## MrockStar (Mar 31, 2020)

heathpack said:


> Danny, South Korea has contained this disease with widespread testing and contact tracing, with quarantine of infected individuals and their contacts.  They did not have to lock their society down and business has continued throughout.
> 
> We have not done any of that (or at least only a tiny sliver of a percent of what it would take to be effective) so we are in a mess.  The new case rate we are seeing in the US is the result of managing it badly from a public health perspective, but it does not need to (and I would argue from an economic perspective cannot) continue to unfold in the manner in which it is.  That is the whole point of the stringent lockdown now- to buy us time to get the appropriate response in place.  Sadly you are not hearing this discussed in the public sphere, because I think that would indeed help the general population understand what is happening now and to buy into it a little better.  And yes, it worries me too that I don't hear this message coming from the federal government.  BUT if smart people are kept on the job, this is what the epidemiologists and public health experts will do even if that is not the message that we're hearing.
> 
> ...


Thank you Heathpack , glad to have your expertise here on TUG.


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 31, 2020)

Panina said:


> Because they really aren’t sure.  Younger people with no underlining conditions are not making it.  Plus underlining conditions can be high blood pressure and being diabetic which is a large percentage of our population.



Good points. I have heard that 60% of Americans have an underlying condition. But many of these conditions could be prevented if Americans would take better care of themselves.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 1, 2020)

Brett said:


> *Sweden has a different approach to the coronavirus*
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
> 
> ...


It will be interesting even though controversial to see if the heard mentality strategy gets this country through this in about a month or less.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

Panina said:


> Because they really aren’t sure.  Younger people with no underlining conditions are not making it.  Plus underlining conditions can be high blood pressure and being diabetic which is a large percentage of our population.


I am going to ask the other taboo question, do you believe all the information we are getting about this? Has anyone actually seen the medical files of those "younger people with no underlying conditions"? Or the studies about the transmission of the virus by the asymptomatic people? Do you remember few weeks ago we were told the mortality rate was 4% and now new studies tell us it is 0.6%? Is there any proof that kids can actually transmit the virus?I can go on and on about things that we have had very little confirmed information but were treated as gospel in making all this life changing decisions for millions of people. If the models prove to be wrong by a factor of 10 or a 100 even in countries that did not do any mitigation, will those who created them pay with their jobs?


----------



## CO skier (Apr 1, 2020)

geekette said:


> Well, sure, but that's still a lot of people that won't have a good outcome.  Look around the grocery store and pick the 2 that get a bad outcome.  Nobody knows.


Same could have been said during the current flu "epidemic" (with a vaccine) but why not  "pick the 2 that get a bad outcome"?

Because the "2 with the flu" does not play to media hype like the Covid-19 does.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Same could have been said during the current flu "epidemic" (with a vaccine) but why not  "pick the 2 that get a bad outcome"?
> 
> Because the "2 with the flu" does not play to media hype like the Covid-19 does.


or pick the two that will commit suicide from the financial outcome 









						More Than 10,000 Suicides Tied To Economic Crisis, Study Says
					

During the economic downturn there were more than 10,000 "excess suicides," researchers say.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## Talent312 (Apr 1, 2020)

This is nature's way of thinning the herd.
Some among us will be taken by the wolves.
.

.


----------



## Chrispee (Apr 1, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Same could have been said during the current flu "epidemic" (with a vaccine) but why not  "pick the 2 that get a bad outcome"?
> 
> Because the "2 with the flu" does not play to media hype like the Covid-19 does.



The flu is a known entity and doesn't have the potential to overwhelm the healthcare system thereby having a potential great many people die because of lack of treatment.


----------



## geist1223 (Apr 1, 2020)

First they told us not to bother with Masks. Now It is time to wear a Mask. But the N95 will probably not protect you from the virus (uh why do all first responders want them). Any other Mask will protect others from you but not you from others.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

I challenge those TUGgers with any health conditions to affirm with confidence that in an economic collapse you would get the regular treatment you need. Anybody?

Some hospitals and clinics have started to cut physicians' compensation (by 30% in some cases and this might be just the beginning) because their revenue has plummeted. I am sorry to have been right, a couple of weeks ago I asked if not more people would  suffer from the economic consequences (including illness and death) than from the virus itself if the stay at home policy continues for a long time. I am afraid everybody signed off on something much uglier than they thought.

Do you know what people advocate on the net? Not paying for rent, food, mortgage, car lease, gas, internet you name it. Explain me please how the system will work in a few months to perform even the most basic health care act. How exactly will those with some health conditions survive (not from the virus) when there will be cuts everywhere? 











						Cutbacks for some doctors and nurses as they battle on the front line - The Boston Globe
					

These financial cutbacks, coming in response to sudden shortfalls during the coronavirus outbreak, have triggered an outcry from doctors and nurses who are already working grueling shifts in demanding working conditions.




					www.bostonglobe.com


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> If this is true, then why not just quarantine those who are most vulnerable?




It is the sheer numbers.  If you just quarantine those over 70 that is 47 million people  according to the 2010 census.  And this does not include those under 70 that are also vulnerable.  Full quarantine is not easy.  Ask any nurse what that entails.  While social distancing of the over 70 crowd would certainly help it does not decrease the death rate tremendously.  If you are interested in this question the Kings College Model did model for just this scenario.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I challenge those TUGgers with any health conditions to affirm with confidence that in an economic collapse you would get the regular treatment you need. Anybody?
> 
> Some hospitals and clinics have started to cut physicians' compensation (by 30% in some cases and this might be just the beginning) because their revenue has plummeted. I am sorry to have been right, a couple of weeks ago I asked if not more people would  suffer from the economic consequences (including illness and death) than from the virus itself if the stay at home policy continues for a long time. I am afraid everybody signed off on something much uglier than they thought.
> 
> ...


  Your financial cost of healthcare is actually helped by the shutdown.  If we did not shut down hospitals would be in worse shape.

All of your costs to the economy are very real.  The cause you identify may not be.  Maybe you can convince me, but so far I have asked this question a lot.  Do you really think there would not be an effect on the economy from millions of people dying and our healthcare system completely overwhelmed and frozen.  Whether the economy is shut down by government fiat or fear the effect is the same.  The economy will come back.  There is a very valid question about how to affect the economy the least while saving the most people, but you are dead wrong if your assuming the only effect on this economy is the shutdowns.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> It is the sheer numbers.  If you just quarantine those over 70 that is 47 million people  according to the 2010 census.  And this does not include those under 70 that are also vulnerable.  Full quarantine is not easy.  Ask any nurse what that entails.  While social distancing of the over 70 crowd would certainly help it does not decrease the death rate tremendously.  If you are interested in this question the Kings College Model did model for just this scenario.


We understand that. However, if the number of new cases is not ZERO in a couple of months, what will you do in terms of mitigation since a majority of Americans can still get infected at that moment and you have already destroyed the economy that has to support the health care system?


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> We understand that. However, if the number of new cases is not ZERO in a couple of months, what will you do in terms of mitigation since a majority of Americans can still get infected at that moment and you have already destroyed the economy that has to support the health care system?


At that point we should have rapid tests that will allow for identification and isolation of those few that are infected.  See the countries that prepared and did it right.  
 I do not agree with your premise that the economy will be destroyed or could have been saved under this very real emergency.


----------



## bbodb1 (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> We understand that. However, if the number of new cases is not ZERO in a couple of months, what will you do in terms of mitigation since a majority of Americans can still get infected at that moment and you have already destroyed the economy that has to support the health care system?


I'm not sure why people continue to maintain the economy will be destroyed.   That simply isn't true.

The economy may not look the same on the other side of this crisis (and that form may not be as preferred) but the economy will continue.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> It is the sheer numbers.  If you just quarantine those over 70 that is 47 million people  according to the 2010 census.  And this does not include those under 70 that are also vulnerable.  Full quarantine is not easy.  Ask any nurse what that entails.  While social distancing of the over 70 crowd would certainly help it does not decrease the death rate tremendously.  If you are interested in this question the Kings College Model did model for just this scenario.


let's talk about numbers. SK has a population of 52 millions and only 10k have had the virus so far.
The number of new cases is lower today  than at the peak but it just does not want to go down to zero, it is virtually the same as 2 weeks ago even with all the testing and all the mitigation measures. This means that 52 million people can still get infected in the future.













						South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I'm not sure why people continue to maintain the economy will be destroyed.   That simply isn't true.
> 
> The economy may not look the same on the other side of this crisis (and that form may not be as preferred) but the economy will continue.


Are you serious? Can you say for sure you will have a job in 6 months? Tech companies for example think they are more or less immune to this. Really? Take Microsoft for example: how many annual subscriptions will be cancelled if the unemployment goes up significantly? How many new movies will be bought on Apple or Google play? Can't you just watch a free older movie when you have no money and no job? Don't you have  a paperback book in your own library that you did not read yet so you do not have to buy something new for your kindle? How is the pay per click model gonna look if companies will think there is no need to advertise since nobody is buying anyways? Who's gonna pay for thise ads? Bread a 
pasta? Egg farms? The idea of essential services and what people spend when they stay at home will be very different after 6 months of a crisis. Out of an abundance of caution I cancelled  all the tech subscriptions that were "nice to have" but that I do not actually need. I do not think I am  that unique.

If you work for the government, can you say for sure that there won't be any layoffs when the government realizes it may not be have the investors to pay for the new debt? Or that they will have to pay 5% interest?  If you work in a Walmart, what tells you that people will buy more than just food for an extended period of time and that the store will  keep everyone on the payroll?
If you are retired, can you say for sure that you will continue to receive the same benefits? In Japan 75% of the insurers went under in time because of the low interest environment. Can you say for sure your annuity will pay forever like nothing happened?


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Are you serious? Can you say for sure you will have a job in 6 months? Tech companies for example think they are more or less immune to this. Really? Take Microsoft for example: how many annual subscriptions will be cancelled if the unemployment goes up significantly? How many new movies will be bought on Apple or Google play? Can't you just watch a free older movie when you have no money and no job? Don't you have  a paperback book in your own library that you did not read yet so you do not have to buy something new for your kindle? How is the pay per click model gonna look if companies will think there is no need to advertise since nobody is buying anyways? Who's gonna pay for thise ads? Bread a
> pasta? Egg farms? The idea of essential services and what people spend when they stay at home will be very different after 6 months of a crisis. Out of an abundance of caution I cancelled  all the tech subscriptions that were "nice to have" but that I do not actually need. I do not think I am  that unique.
> 
> If you work for the government, can you say for sure that there won't be any layoffs when the government realizes it may not be have the investors to pay for the new debt? Or that they will have to pay 5% interest?  If you work in a Walmart, what tells you that people will buy more than just food for an extended period of time and that the store will  keep everyone on the payroll?
> If you are retired, can you say for sure that you will continue to receive the same benefits? In Japan 75% of the insurers went under in time because of the low interest environment. Can you say for sure your annuity will pay forever like nothing happened?


You seem to equate a recession to the economy being "destroyed".  Yes, the economy is being hurt by this.  Yes, people will lose their jobs.  But all those things happen during a recession as well.  This may very well be a deep recession, but we have always recovered from recessions and even depressions.  Many companies are going to be just fine.  You mentioned tech companies -- I work for one and guess what?  Think about everyone working from home -- we sell networking equipment, business servers and services, and there is _increased _demand for that segment now.

Running around like Chicken Little claiming the sky is falling is pointless.

Kurt


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Running around like Chicken Little claiming the sky is falling is pointless.
> 
> Kurt



This is what people are doing with regard to the coronavirus.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> You seem to equate a recession to the economy being "destroyed".  Yes, the economy is being hurt by this.  Yes, people will lose their jobs.  But all those things happen during a recession as well.  This may very well be a deep recession, but we have always recovered from recessions and even depressions.  Many companies are going to be just fine.  You mentioned tech companies -- I work for one and guess what?  Think about everyone working from home -- we sell networking equipment, business servers and services, and there is _increased _demand for that segment now.
> 
> Running around like Chicken Little claiming the sky is falling is pointless.
> 
> Kurt



You  think your company is immune now. Think at your customers and   _their_ budgets in 3 or 6 months if things continue on the same path, you may see a completely different picture than today. If what you said was true in the medium term, network companies would be up not down so for sure the markets do not think they are going to make more money.


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> You  think your company is immune now. Think at your customers and   _their_ budgets in 3 or 6 months if things continue on the same path, you may see a completely different picture than today. If what you said was true in the medium term, network companies would be up not down so for sure the markets do not think they are going to make more money.


I never stated I think my company is immune.  And by no means is my job safe.  But that is a far cry from the economy being "destroyed".  Recession does not mean that the economy is "destroyed".  Jobs will come back.  The economy will recover.  Why do you think otherwise?

Kurt


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is what people are doing with regard to the coronavirus.



And what's becoming another pandemic. The stress of waiting and wondering... will I be next.?


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> I never stated I think my company is immune.  And by no means is my job safe.  But that is a far cry from the economy being "destroyed".  Recession does not mean that the economy is "destroyed".  Jobs will come back.  The economy will recover.  Why do you think otherwise?
> 
> Kurt



Because this is not a normal recession and it is going to get much worse before it gets better. This is the worst financial crisis in 100 years, the “mother of all financial crises.” The economy will eventually “come back” but I suspect this will have long lasting economic damage. This is a financial crisis of “cataclysmic proportions.” While this may sound like Chicken Little, it is a realistic assessment and better to prepare for the worst and hope it is better. Here is a NY Times article explaining how this is different.

***********
*Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time*
Fears are growing that the worldwide economic downturn could be especially deep and lengthy, with recovery limited by continued anxiety.

The world is almost certainly ensnared in a devastating recession delivered by the coronavirus pandemic.

Now, fears are growing that the downturn could be far more punishing and long lasting than initially feared — potentially enduring into next year, and even beyond — as governments intensify restrictions on business to halt the spread of the pandemic, and as fear of the virus reconfigures the very concept of public space, impeding consumer-led economic growth.

The pandemic is above all a public health emergency. So long as human interaction remains dangerous, business cannot responsibly return to normal. And what was normal before may not be anymore. People may be less inclined to jam into crowded restaurants and concert halls even after the virus is contained.

The abrupt halt of commercial activity threatens to impose economic pain so profound and enduring in every region of the world at once that recovery could take years. The losses to companies, many already saturated with debt, risk triggering a financial crisis of cataclysmic proportions.

“I feel like the 2008 financial crisis was just a dry run for this,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a Harvard economist and co-author of a history of financial crises, “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.”

“This is already shaping up as the deepest dive on record for the global economy for over 100 years,” he said. “Everything depends on how long it lasts, but if this goes on for a long time, it’s certainly going to be the mother of all financial crises.”

The situation looks uniquely dire in developing countries, which have seen investment rush for the exits this year, sending currencies plummeting, forcing people to pay more for imported food and fuel, and threatening governments with insolvency — all of this while the pandemic itself threatens to overwhelm inadequate medical systems.

Among investors, a hopeful scenario holds currency: The recession will be painful but short-lived, giving way to a robust recovery this year. The global economy is in a temporary deep freeze, the logic goes. Once the virus is contained, enabling people to return to offices and shopping malls, life will snap back to normal. Jets will fill with families going on merely deferred vacations. Factories will resume, fulfilling saved up orders.

But even after the virus is tamed — and no one really knows when that will be — the world that emerges is likely to be choked with trouble, challenging the recovery. Mass joblessness exacts societal costs. Widespread bankruptcy could leave industry in a weakened state, depleted of investment and innovation.

Households may remain agitated and risk averse, making them prone to thrift. Some social distancing measures could remain indefinitely. Consumer spending amounts to roughly two-thirds of economic activity worldwide. If anxiety endures and people are reluctant to spend, expansion will be limited — especially as continued vigilance against the coronavirus may be required for years.

“The psychology won’t just bounce back,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, an investment research firm in London. “People have had a real shock. The recovery will be slow, and certain behavior patterns are going to change, if not forever at least for a long while.”................









						Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time (Published 2020)
					

Fears are growing that the worldwide economic downturn could be especially deep and lengthy, with recovery limited by continued anxiety.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## heathpack (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is what people are doing with regard to the coronavirus.



Really?!  Honestly I am continually stupefied by your position on this.  Now even the White House, which was previously sending out messages minimizing the threat, is telling us that without mitigation we could have expected over a million deaths.  With mitigation we "only" expect 100,000- 250,000 deaths and *still* a collapse of our health system in some areas.

How you can believe that this is being overhyped is completely beyond me.  How you can argue that to "save" small business we should pay the price of a million American lives will never make sense to me.  As others repeatedly have pointed out, the impact of no mitigation would be terrible for small business too.  Either way, the situation is dire.  Thems the facts.  Wanting different facts doesn't change the facts that we have.


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Because this is not a normal recession and it is going to get much worse before it gets better. This is the worst financial crisis in 100 years, the “mother of all financial crises.”


That's one opinion.  There are no facts, only opinions at this point as to how the economy will be affected.  I'll continue to stand by my statement that running around, yelling the sky is falling is pointless.

Kurt


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> That's one opinion.  There are no facts, only opinions at this point as to how the economy will be affected.  I'll continue to stand by my statement that running around, yelling the sky is falling is pointless.
> 
> Kurt



There are already many facts coming out daily about how the economy is being shocked into recession. I could post facts all day long. Just read the Wall Street Journal daily and you will be inundated with facts. There are more facts about the economic impact than there are about the virus itself. Right now, we mainly have opinions on how the virus will impact us. Really scary opinions and forecasts that are changing daily. I know for sure that the economic damage will be widespread. It already is. This does not mean that I am advocating profit over people. I am just saying this recession (possible depression) is already really bad and it is going to get worse.


----------



## am1 (Apr 1, 2020)

Today or tomorrow the USA will have more total cases then Spain and Italy combined?  New York/New Jersey alone will have more cases then any other country?  Thankfully parks are to be closed but the fallout of these cases will be seen in the next weeks.  Not sure why it has been taking so long but is another example for other areas to take precautions before it is too late.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

heathpack said:


> Really?!  Honestly I am continually stupefied by your position on this.  Now even the White House, which was previously sending out messages minimizing the threat, is telling us that without mitigation we could have expected over a million deaths.  With mitigation we "only" expect 100,000- 250,000 deaths and *still* a collapse of our health system in some areas.
> 
> How you can believe that this is being overhyped is completely beyond me.  How you can argue that to "save" small business we should pay the price of a million American lives will never make sense to me.  As others repeatedly have pointed out, the impact of no mitigation would be terrible for small business too.  Either way, the situation is dire.  Thems the facts.  Wanting different facts doesn't change the facts that we have.


I am also stupefied people continue to cite models that have been wrong at every step of the way.  By the way, China is back in a lockdown after relaxing measures for a while





__





						Zerohedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com
				




Can you or someone else explain to me what will happen after 2-4-6 months of mitigation in the US? What are those models saying, how many new cases and what percentage of the population can be infected from that moment? If you do not know, I do not blame you, nobody cares to explain to us what will happen.


----------



## b2bailey (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Good points. I have heard that 60% of Americans have an underlying condition. But many of these conditions could be prevented if Americans would take better care of themselves.


Originally, I thought underlying conditions were just those with prior lung conditions and age. Now I understand it includes -- high blood pressure, even when being controlled by medication; obesity (especially over 40 BMI) ; and people using CPAP machines. With those factors, many here are swept into the high risk group. I'm thinking the danger may be multiplied rather than addition.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

heathpack said:


> Really?!  Honestly I am continually stupefied by your position on this.  Now even the White House, which was previously sending out messages minimizing the threat, is telling us that without mitigation we could have expected over a million deaths.  With mitigation we "only" expect 100,000- 250,000 deaths and *still* a collapse of our health system in some areas.
> 
> How you can believe that this is being overhyped is completely beyond me.  How you can argue that to "save" small business we should pay the price of a million American lives will never make sense to me.  As others repeatedly have pointed out, the impact of no mitigation would be terrible for small business too.  Either way, the situation is dire.  Thems the facts.  Wanting different facts doesn't change the facts that we have.



I was just responding to PigDad’s statement that Danny is over reacting about the economic damage. I was just pointing out that people are doing the same thing about the virus. Most people who get the virus will have no symptoms or mild symptoms and will recover. To me, this is optimistic. Most people are reacting to the virus as if it is a death sentence. I am not saying that we won’t have many deaths. I was happy to hear it will now “only“ be 100,000 - 250,000 vs the millions they were forecasting before. I know it is still many deaths but it could have been much worse. I never argued that to “save small businesses we should pay the price of a million Americans.“ Those are your words and that is your interpretation. Frankly, it is already too late. Many business large and small are being destroyed right now. This is destroying many people’s lives. It is not about a business. It is about a family. Every time a business lays off its employees or goes bankrupt, a family is being destroyed. I just do not think we should make light of this. It is not a case of saving business vs saving lives. That decision has already been made. We are all staying home so we have chosen to save lives. I have been home for 3+ weeks, longer than most other Americans since we have been home since even before the SIP started in California. I am doing my part to stop the spread of the virus. I should be allowed to have an opinion about the financial damage of the worldwide economic shutdown. That does not mean I do not choose life. It shocks me how people misinterpret and jump to conclusions and put words in my mouth.


----------



## heathpack (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I am also stupefied people continue to cite models that have been wrong at every step of the way.  By the way, China is back in a lockdown after relaxing measures for a while
> 
> 
> 
> ...



So you are saying that you believe information coming out of the White House within the past 24 hours is incorrect and that you personally know better?


----------



## heathpack (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I was just responding to PigDad’s statement that Danny is over reacting about the economic damage. I was just pointing out that people are doing the same thing about the virus. Most people who get the virus will have no symptoms or mild symptoms and will recover. To me, this is optimistic. Most people are reacting to the virus as if it is a death sentence. I am not saying that we won’t have many deaths. I was happy to hear it will now “only“ be 100,000 - 250,000 vs the millions they were forecasting before. I know it is still many deaths but it could have been much worse. I never argued that to “save small businesses we should pay the price of a million Americans.“ Those are your words and that is your interpretation. Frankly, it is already too late. Many business large and small are being destroyed right now. This is destroying many people’s lives. It is not about a business. It is about a family. Every time a business lays off its employees or goes bankrupt, a family is being destroyed. I just do not think we should make light of this. It is not a case of saving business vs saving lives. That decision has already been made. We are all staying home so we have chosen to save lives. I have been home for 3+ weeks, longer than most other Americans since we have been home since even before the SIP started in California. I am doing my part to stop the spread of the virus. I should be allowed to have an opinion about the financial damage of the worldwide economic shutdown. That does not mean I do not choose life. It shocks me how people misinterpret and jump to conclusions and put words in my mouth.



Well I guess to me it simply does not seem like a chicken little type of reaction to lock our society down to prevent a million deaths.


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> There are already many facts coming out daily about how the economy is being shocked into recession. I could post facts all day long. Just read the Wall Street Journal daily and you will be inundated with facts. There are more facts about the economic impact than there are about the virus itself. Right now, we mainly have opinions on how the virus will impact us. Really scary opinions and forecasts that are changing daily. I know for sure that the economic damage will be widespread. It already is. This does not mean that I am advocating profit over people. I am just saying this recession (possible depression) is already really bad and it is going to get worse.


So it is a "fact" that "this is the worst financial crisis in 100 years", as you stated above?  I would argue the 1929 crash is still the worst.  Or are you saying that it is a "fact" that we will go into a 10 year depression, only to be pulled out by a world war?  That is the only way this will be worse than 1929.

Yes, there are some facts out there now, but we don't know yet how deep this will affect the economy in the end.  It is just opinion at this time.

Kurt


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

heathpack said:


> So you are saying that you believe information coming out of the White House within the past 24 hours is incorrect and that you personally know better?


If you listened Dr Fauci at the Task force press conference you realized they were as sure about those numbers as they are about the weather next September.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> So it is a "fact" that "this is the worst financial crisis in 100 years", as you stated above?  I would argue the 1929 crash is still the worst.  Or are you saying that it is a "fact" that we will go into a 10 year depression, only to be pulled out by a world war?  That is the only way this will be worse than 1929.
> 
> Yes, there are some facts out there now, but we don't know yet how deep this will affect the economy in the end.  It is just opinion at this time.
> 
> Kurt



No, I am talking about the daily facts coming out. For example, unemployment claims jumped to 3.3 million in one week. Of course, we do not know how deep the recession will be. Nor do we know how many deaths there will be. Both are unknown. We do know that there are many indicators right now that this will be one of the worst, if not the worst, economic disaster in history. The more deaths we have and the longer it takes to find a solution to the virus, the worse the economy will be. The economy will not recover until people go back to work. I can’t believe anyone would argue that this is not an economic disaster. Or that’s anyone thinks this is a normal recession. I am tired of people saying whatever news they do not like is just an opinion. In reality, all we have are opinions.


----------



## Panina (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I challenge those TUGgers with any health conditions to affirm with confidence that in an economic collapse you would get the regular treatment you need. Anybody?
> 
> Some hospitals and clinics have started to cut physicians' compensation (by 30% in some cases and this might be just the beginning) because their revenue has plummeted. I am sorry to have been right, a couple of weeks ago I asked if not more people would  suffer from the economic consequences (including illness and death) than from the virus itself if the stay at home policy continues for a long time. I am afraid everybody signed off on something much uglier than they thought.
> 
> ...


Imo unfortunately that is the same problem with either choice.  Not staying at home would collapse the economy too.  As soon as the health system became overwhelmed the results would be the same economically.  There is no definitive choice to make it ok.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

heathpack said:


> Well I guess to me it simply does not seem like a chicken little type of reaction to lock our society down to prevent a million deaths.



Most people agree with you. That is why it is taboo to even talk about economic ramifications right now. People automatically assume you are putting profits over people. This is simply not true. When this is all over, then we will be crying for all the unemployed and bankrupt but right now, most people do not care about that.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> So it is a "fact" that "this is the worst financial crisis in 100 years", as you stated above?  I would argue the 1929 crash is still the worst.  Or are you saying that it is a "fact" that we will go into a 10 year depression, only to be pulled out by a world war?  That is the only way this will be worse than 1929.
> 
> Yes, there are some facts out there now, but we don't know yet how deep this will affect the economy in the end.  It is just opinion at this time.
> 
> Kurt


There has never been a period during our lifetimes (mine at least) where everybody was asked to stay home and in consequence will only buy the strictest essentials for the next God knows how long.
*Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history*









						Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history
					

Gross domestic product is forecast to fall 9% in the first quarter followed by a stunning 34% plunge and then a 19% rebound.




					www.cnbc.com
				




Great, Goldman thinks 34% GDP decline followed by the fastest recovery in history. Except of course if these mitigation measures will be in for an indefinite amount of time which is what most believe now. Basically that 34% decline can be for few weeks or for a very, very long time.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

Panina said:


> Imo unfortunately that is the same problem with either choice.  Not staying at home would collapse the economy too.  As soon as the health system became overwhelmed the results would be the same economically.  There is no definitive choice to make it ok.


why do you think Sweden's economy will collapse 34%?


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Or are you saying that it is a "fact" that we will go into a 10 year depression, only to be pulled out by a world war?
> 
> Kurt



I never said this.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> That's one opinion.  There are no facts, only opinions at this point as to how the economy will be affected.  I'll continue to stand by my statement that running around, yelling the sky is falling is pointless.
> 
> Kurt


And the only scoreboard we have is the stock market.  And even with the big loses we have not dropped the average for a recession let alone a deep one like 2008.  We could certainly take the other side and say the government is over reacting with our money  2.5 trillion to date to save business's that did not plan for the inevitable turn down.  That position while equally arguable is as insensitive as arguing that a business is paramount.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> And the only scoreboard we have is the stock market.  And even with the big loses we have not dropped the average for a recession let alone a deep one like 2008.  We could certainly take the other side and say the government is over reacting with our money  2.5 trillion to date to save business's that did not plan for the inevitable turn down.  That position while equally arguable is as insensitive as arguing that a business is paramount.



This is not an “inevitable” down turn. This is a pandemic. Saying businesses did not plan for this is really, really insensitive.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

People seem to forget that a business is a group of people. Being insensitive toward business is being insensitive toward people. Most businesses are mom and pop shops. But even large businesses are mostly average or low income individuals. Wait until you have a loved one who loses their job during the pandemic or who goes bankrupt. Maybe then you will care more. Losing a job is like losing a family member in terms of the grief and loss people experience. I keep saying this is not about business. This is about people. BTW, in third world countries like India, people are starving and feel the immediate impact of a job loss. In the USA, we are lucky to have more resources so we are insensitive toward what is going on right now.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

I do think the government has thrown together an economic response. I am in shock that they have put together trillions of dollars in aid. In my opinion, this shows the government is really worried that the financial impact will be catastrophic. I hope that is enough but I was not too impressed with the small business portion of the packages.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

whether this is true or not I do not know but Telegraph claimed few years ago that the 

Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study 









						Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study
					

The global financial crisis may have caused an additional 500,000 cancer deaths from 2008 to 2010, according to a new study, with patients locked out of treatment because of unemployment and healthcare cuts.




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I am also stupefied people continue to cite models that have been wrong at every step of the way.  By the way, China is back in a lockdown after relaxing measures for a while
> 
> 
> 
> ...



As I have said many times that has been modeled and those models have been shared here.  Both the Kings College and Gates Foundation models have the answers you seek.  And please cite which model was wrong as you have stated .  The first hard science model was the Kings College one that is now the excepted model of the administration even though when it came out the administration claimed everything was under complete control (see Kudlow CNBC quote)    The models do not change that much.  What does change is the people quote extremes of the model but fail to give the parameters of the model they are quoting.  Saying that the prediction has changed from millions to 200k is dead wrong.  They are the extremes that were modeled from the beginning and in no way were predicting events.  Even discussions here were pointing out those predictions.  Yes they change but ignoring the best science with the best numbers available is a fools game


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> And the only scoreboard we have is the stock market.  And even with the big loses we have not dropped the average for a recession let alone a deep one like 2008.  We could certainly take the other side and say the government is over reacting with our money  2.5 trillion to date to save business's that did not plan for the inevitable turn down.  That position while equally arguable is as insensitive as arguing that a business is paramount.


Do you have any idea where the markets would be today if the Federal reserves had not bought  every type of security out there? No, the stock market is NOT the measure in this case.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> As I have said many times that has been modeled and those models have been shared here.  Both the Kings College and Gates Foundation models have the answers you seek.  And please cite which model was wrong as you have stated .  The first hard science model was the Kings College one that is now the excepted model of the administration even though when it came out the administration claimed everything was under complete control (see Kudlow CNBC quote)    The models do not change that much.  What does change is the people quote extremes of the model but fail to give the parameters of the model they are quoting.  Saying that the prediction has changed from millions to 200k is dead wrong.  They are the extremes that were modeled from the beginning and in no way were predicting events.  Even discussions here were pointing out those predictions.  Yes they change but ignoring the best science with the best numbers available is a fools game


All the models were using 3 and 4 % mortality rate at the beginning and we all know now it is not true. Coming with some very wild guesses when we had enough data at the time to question those assumption (like the mortality rate in _other_ European countries) does not seem to me like sound science and ready to base a 2 or 4 trillion dollar decision on.


----------



## "Roger" (Apr 1, 2020)

Two points:

First I might call your attention to the link found in Danny's message at the top of page 11 of this thread. He only duplicated one chart from that link. There are a number of other interesting ones. The one I found most interesting was the final one. The death rate in South Korea (I presume this has to be among those admitted to hospitals) when the outbreak was at its height: 49%. Since they have brought the outbreak under control: 3%. That gives us an idea what would happen if our hospitals were to became overwhelmed. Make of this what you want.

Secondly (and this point has been made a number of times), the economy would not be well if we just left everything "open for business." People are going to take cruises? Fly airlines? Frequent restaurants at old rates? (Business was down at restaurants in the nearest big metropolitan area to me 25% to 80% before enforced take out only. Those numbers would have been even higher if some restaurants hadn't started take out on their own.) Haircuts? (Believe it or not, one of the businesses most hard hit during any recession.) Plumbers? (See the thread where the TUGGER had to contact eleven plumbers before she could get one to come into her house.) Etc.


----------



## Panina (Apr 1, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> Two points:
> 
> First I might call your attention to the link found in Danny's message at the top of page 11 of this thread. He only duplicated one chart from that link. There are a number of other interesting ones. The one I found most interesting was the final one. The death rate in South Korea (I presume this has to be among those admitted to hospitals) when the outbreak was at its height: 49%. Since they have brought the outbreak under control: 3%. That gives us an idea what would happen if our hospitals were to became overwhelmed. Make of this what you want.
> 
> Secondly (and this point has been made a number of times), the economy would not be well if we just left everything "open for business." People are going to take cruises? Fly airlines? Frequent restaurants at old rates? (Business was down at restaurants in the nearest big metropolitan area to me 25% to 80% before enforced take out only. Those numbers would have been even higher if some restaurants hadn't started take out on their own.) Haircuts? (Believe it or not, one of the businesses most hard hit during any recession.) Plumbers? (See the thread where the TUGGER had to contact eleven plumbers before she could get one to come into her house.) Etc.


Every action has consequences.  My belief is more in line with what you are saying in this post.  Everyone can judge, for one that says this way is better another will say another way is better.  Easy to judge when you are not making the decisions nor have all the facts.  History will tell us more, the current moment will not.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> Two points:
> 
> First I might call your attention to the link found in Danny's message at the top of page 11 of this thread. He only duplicated one chart from that link. There are a number of other interesting ones. The one I found most interesting was the final one. The death rate in South Korea (I presume this has to be among those admitted to hospitals) when the outbreak was at its height: 49%. Since they have brought the outbreak under control: 3%. That gives us an idea what would happen if our hospitals were to became overwhelmed. Make of this what you want.
> 
> Secondly (and this point has been made a number of times), the economy would not be well if we just left everything "open for business." People are going to take cruises? Fly airlines? Frequent restaurants at old rates? (Business was down at restaurants in the nearest big metropolitan area to me 25% to 80% before enforced take out only. Those numbers would have been even higher if some restaurants hadn't started take out on their own.) Haircuts? (Believe it or not, one of the businesses most hard hit during any recession.) Plumbers? (See the thread where the TUGGER had to contact eleven plumbers before she could get one to come into her house.) Etc.


you are not reading that reports the right way, the mortality rate is about 1.5% in SK. By the way, on the cruise ships you have 1% even if the average age is very high.

Concerning the economy that could have been well or not, it is not a binary option. For sure some people would have not traveled for example due to personal health concerns (coronavirus related) or simply because they are more sensitive to any negative news. We have a friend who will not take a flight that has a layover |San Francisco even for an hour due to an earthquake fear. Others will never go to Mexico due to a perception of violence even where they should not be worried. . I would have probably never set foot on a cruise. But this is  NOT what we are talking about, now nobody is travelling, going to a barber is like a clandestine activity and finding a plumber... good luck as you say. O lot of small business owners would still actually work but it is virtually impossible in this environment but it did not have to be that way. Probably Sweden is again a good example, of course some business activity will be lower but not everything has to come to a standstill.


----------



## Panina (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> why do you think Sweden's economy will collapse 34%?


Looking at Sweden today cannot answer that question. Only time will tell.


----------



## Chrispee (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Most people agree with you. That is why it is taboo to even talk about economic ramifications right now. People automatically assume you are putting profits over people. This is simply not true. When this is all over, then we will be crying for all the unemployed and bankrupt but right now, most people do not care about that.



When you're running away from a pack of wolves holding a bag of porkchops, you throw a porkchop to the wolf that's closest to nipping at your heels.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

Panina said:


> Looking at Sweden today cannot answer that question. Only time will tell.


but Sweden is not exactly an irresponsible country, you know. I am sure they also made a decision based on all the available data to them at the time and have come to the conclusion it is better for them this way. If I were to bet, I would say the difference is not in the data they saw but in the restraint of the media and the people to call them "criminals" for not going the strict containment route


----------



## x3 skier (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> All the models were using 3 and 4 % mortality rate at the beginning and we all know now it is not true. Coming with some very wild guesses when we had enough data at the time to question those assumption (like the mortality rate in _other_ European countries) does not seem to me like sound science and ready to base a 2 or 4 trillion dollar decision on.



As I noted before, All models are wrong but some are useful.

Apparently since you do not believe that taking existing data from Italy and projecting the results if nothing is done which led to the prediction of 2000000 deaths was “sound science”, could you identify what “sound science” should have been used?  If there is a better model than those being used today it is not known to me.

The only way a model is the most accurate is after a measurable event has taken place. Even then, it might be correct in the resulting calculation just by chance. If we wait until the Pandemic is over, even I could construct a model that is very accurate in giving the number of deaths. The models being used have been used in other epidemics and proved very useful in helping deciding what course of action to take. Note I say useful, not totally flawless.

Cheers


----------



## geekette (Apr 1, 2020)

....Losing a job is like losing a family member in terms of the grief and loss people experience. 

BS.


----------



## dayooper (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> And the only scoreboard we have is the stock market.  And even with the big loses we have not dropped the average for a recession let alone a deep one like 2008.  We could certainly take the other side and say the government is over reacting with our money  2.5 trillion to date to save business's that did not plan for the inevitable turn down.  That position while equally arguable is as insensitive as arguing that a business is paramount.





TravelTime said:


> People seem to forget that a business is a group of people. Being insensitive toward business is being insensitive toward people. Most businesses are mom and pop shops. But even large businesses are mostly average or low income individuals. Wait until you have a loved one who loses their job during the pandemic or who goes bankrupt. Maybe then you will care more. Losing a job is like losing a family member in terms of the grief and loss people experience. I keep saying this is not about business. This is about people. BTW, in third world countries like India, people are starving and feel the immediate impact of a job loss. In the USA, we are lucky to have more resources so we are insensitive toward what is going on right now.



Hmmmm . . . A lot to unpack on this one. Would you rather have a love one lose their job and declare bankruptcy or die? We had one of my daughters friends (not a close one) and his father die a few days ago. They were 20 and late 40’s, respectively. Their mom/wife is now left alone here with no family members around. Both were healthy with no known underlying medical issues. I wonder, if the mom could decide one or the other, which choice she would choose?

With that being said, there needs to be middle ground. We are in uncharted waters here with nothing but what the US and what others countries have done and are doing as reference. We have to sift through everything that has been done, decide what works/doesn’t work and find our best path forward. Right now, we have a pandemic that we are dealing with and that, in my opinion, should be first and foremost. As we start to get a grip on what works with the pandemic, we can then tackle the economy. Things may never be the same again (or take a very long time to get back where we were). Things aren’t alway rosy and bad things happen. The only way we are going to get through this is by not getting at each others throats, utilizing the talents that we have and doing our part for the common good. 

We have models for both the pandemic and economic scenarios and should be finding ways to integrate both. We can sit here with both side screaming into the void or we can realize that we have very smart experts on both sides of the issue that can figure this out. I am not one of those experts.  I do believe the start of this discussion was very valuable and worth discussing.

@TravelTime I’m sorry I singled your comment out above, but that families situation I mentioned above has struck a nerve with me. I think about my wife or even myself in that position. The father was roughly my age and their son is obviously my daughters age so that’s very real to me. It puts a face on the statistics. I have many friends and family members who are in the health care professions. Many nurses and doctors, some in high impact areas. My cousin is a resident at the University of Michigan’s Hospital. It’s about ready to be over run. His wife shared a picture of him coming home and seeing their son through the patio door. He left to head back to work and won’t be able to be with each other for quite some time.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> As I noted before, All models are wrong but some are useful.
> 
> Apparently since you do not believe that taking existing data from Italy and projecting the results if nothing is done which led to the prediction of 2000000 deaths was “sound science”, could you identify what “sound science” should have been used?  If there is a better model than those being used today it is not known to me.
> 
> ...


As always you have to dig deeper when you use numbers to see what applies and what not. From what I read, Italy had a very different way of counting the coronavirus "victims" including testing people post mortem and even if they had actually died from something else. They could have been "asymptomatic" as far as the virus but dying from cancer but they all went to the corona column. Again, this info was available at the time and those scientists should have known. better.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Do you have any idea where the markets would be today if the Federal reserves had not bought  every type of security out there? No, the stock market is NOT the measure in this case.


No and neither do you.  And even more important is you do not know where the market will be in a few months whether they did or not.  As I have said before....the progress on the virus was going to determine that and any intervention will not change that over the long haul.  Do you also know what the effects of 2.5 trillion debt and a fed balance sheet of 10 trillion means long term for the market?  Ask boeing how that stock buyback went for them.  Everybody cheers all this QE but the bill has not been paid yet.


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 1, 2020)

I said:


> Or are you saying that it is a "fact" that we will go into a 10 year depression, only to be pulled out by a world war?





TravelTime said:


> I never said this.


You said:


> This is the worst financial crisis in 100 years, the “mother of all financial crises.”


And for it to be the worst financial crisis in 100 years, that means it is worse than the 1929 crash and the Great Depression (i.e., the worst financial crisis in 100 years right now).  So yes, your statement _did _say that.  Or was there a worse financial crisis in the last 100 years that you are referring to?

Kurt


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> No and neither do you.  And even more important is you do not know where the market will be in a few months whether they did or not.  As I have said before....the progress on the virus was going to determine that and any intervention will not change that over the long haul.  Do you also know what the effects of 2.5 trillion debt and a fed balance sheet of 10 trillion means long term for the market?  Ask boeing how that stock buyback went for them.  Everybody cheers all this QE but the bill has not been paid yet.


I actually agree  this is not paid for yet, generations to come will foot the bill with their taxes,  health care and retirements. It will also not be 2.5 trillions, this is just the down payment.


----------



## dayooper (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> As always you have to dig deeper when you use numbers to see what applies and what not. From what I read, Italy had a very different way of counting the coronavirus "victims" including testing people post mortem and even if they had actually died from something else. They could have been "asymptomatic" as far as the virus but dying from cancer but they all went to the corona column. Again, this info was available at the time and those scientists should have known. better.



They might not have been a symptomatic either. This virus just doesn’t kill the infected, it can kill those that come to a hospital for other reasons like heart attacks, strokes, car accidents or any other mortal emergency.


----------



## heathpack (Apr 1, 2020)

@dayooper words of wisdom

I think many of us who are "for" a lockdown to save lives are also "for" lifting the lockdown as soon as feasible.  Its entirely possible to worry about both the economy and people's lives and to be able to prioritize between the two.

First: lockdown which buys some time to figure out how to unlockdown
Then: Unlockdown and try to get the economy going

Its just so strange that folks seem to insist if you're "for" lockdown right now, that you can't conceive of the economic toll or that unlockdown would be preferable as soon as it can be safely accomplished.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

heathpack said:


> @dayooper words of wisdom
> 
> I think many of us who are "for" a lockdown to save lives are also "for" lifting the lockdown as soon as feasible.  Its entirely possible to worry about both the economy and people's lives and to be able to prioritize between the two.


Can you please just tell me the metric you would use to lift the lockdown? Let's take South Korea as an example. After 6 weeks of containment they have the SAME number of new cases as at the beginning (about 100 per day) . The number of new cases does not go down. What would you do in their case? What are the scientists telling us? Nothing actually.


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 1, 2020)

heathpack said:


> @dayooper words of wisdom
> 
> I think many of us who are "for" a lockdown to save lives are also "for" lifting the lockdown as soon as feasible.


Count me in that camp.  I believe the lockdown is our best bet to get this under control (note, I didn't say eliminated).  And doing a comprehensive lockdown, while very painful, is probably the best way to keep the economic damage to a minimum.

Kurt


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## Rolltydr (Apr 1, 2020)

heathpack said:


> @dayooper words of wisdom
> 
> I think many of us who are "for" a lockdown to save lives are also "for" lifting the lockdown as soon as feasible. Its entirely possible to worry about both the economy and people's lives and to be able to prioritize between the two.
> 
> ...



There are 2 facts that strongly support this view:
1. Economies recover.
2. Dead people don’t recover.


Harry


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## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

dayooper said:


> They might not have been a symptomatic either. This virus just doesn’t kill the infected, it can kill those that come to a hospital for other reasons like heart attacks, strokes, car accidents or any other mortal emergency.


This is part of the problem, nobody seems to know how many would have actually died regardless, in Italy and elsewhere. This is the perfect storm that you cannot fight or ignore, you just assume it is there and that it is bad.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Count me in that camp.  I believe the lockdown is our best bet to get this under control (note, I didn't say eliminated).  And doing a comprehensive lockdown, while very painful, is probably the best way to keep the economic damage to a minimum.
> 
> Kurt


For how long? What if the number of new cases is not ZERO in the United States in 6 months from now? What do you actually recommend now we should do then? It is a pretty simple question.


----------



## heathpack (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Can you please just tell me the metric you would use to lift the lockdown? Let's take South Korea as an example. After 6 weeks of containment they have the SAME number of new cases as at the beginning (about 100 per day) . The number of new cases does not go down. What would you do in their case? What are the scientists telling us? Nothing actually.



I posted a detailed reply to you on this exact subject here on TUG.  Possibly in this thread.  I'm not going to repeat myself.  You can search for it yourself if you would like.


----------



## x3 skier (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> As always you have to dig deeper when you use numbers to see what applies and what not. From what I read, Italy had a very different way of counting the coronavirus "victims" including testing people post mortem and even if they had actually died from something else. They could have been "asymptomatic" as far as the virus but dying from cancer but they all went to the corona column. Again, this info was available at the time and those scientists should have known. better.



I have read nowhere that this information was “available at the time”. Do you have a source?

At the rate people were dying in Italy, I’d be surprised if they were taking time to do as you say, much less reporting it. If one looks at New York now, there’s no such info about the types of differentiation in the absolute cause of death that I have seen.

All that said, I often ask if people, especially those elderly and/or with underlying conditions die WITH COVID-19 or
BECAUSE of COVID-19. It would be nice in a reporter would ask that question of the White House Task Force instead of some playing “gotcha” or other things not related to the Pandemic.  I suspect there’s no way to know given it would take an autopsy to determine that and that’s essentially impossible with the rate of deaths in the ”hot spots”.

Cheers


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## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> There are 2 facts that strongly support this view:
> 1. Economies recover.
> 2. Dead people don’t recover.
> 
> ...


there is a known fact that there is a correlation between unemployment and death. So I may argue that may happen anyway.


----------



## "Roger" (Apr 1, 2020)

The Wall Street Journal is reporting today that the number of deaths in Italy may drastically undercounted.

_"In the town of Coccaglio, an hour’s drive east of here, the local nursing home lost over a third of its residents in March. None of the 24 people who died there were tested for the new coronavirus. Nor were the 38 people who died in another nursing home in the nearby town of Lodi.

These aren’t isolated incidents...."_

Basically these deaths only made it into Italy's Coronavirus count if they had been tested.


----------



## WalnutBaron (Apr 1, 2020)

@TravelTime : I'm sorry you're coming in for a lot of criticism here, but the very title of this thread coupled with your past comments has lead people to believe that your most pressing concern right from the start of the quarantine was how it would affect your business and whether the government authorities were overreacting. In light of all that is happening, the thread title must be more than a little embarrassing. That said, I am very sorry that your business has been so deeply impacted. I hope it survives and thrives on the other side of this.

None of us knows right now how deep and severe this disaster will be. To think that it is now quite possible that more people will die in the USA from this virus than troops who died in Vietnam, the Korean War, and World War I combined is hard to fathom and speaks to the depth of what our country is facing. Couple that with the looming economic disaster, and this becomes a massive double whammy that has not been seen since The Greatest Generation lived through the Great Depression followed immediately by World War II. 

Personally, I don't see what value there is in debating whether this is the worst economic disaster in 100 years or not. The truth is there is tremendous, broad-based pain and suffering *now*, and we are only on the very front edge of what's coming. In times of crisis, it is never a good idea to rack our brains by focusing on how badly we ourselves are affected. Instead of looking inward, we need to look outward and upward. Outward to see how we can help others who are suffering--with our time (most of us have plenty of that right now!), with our dollars, and with our encouragement. Upward to pray for protection from the storm descending over us and for grace and mercy while it lasts.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> I have read nowhere that this information was “available at the time”. Do you have a source?
> 
> At the rate people were dying in Italy, I’d be surprised if they were taking time to do as you say, much less reporting it. If one looks at New York now, there’s no such info about the types of differentiation in the absolute cause of death that I have seen.
> 
> ...


sure, March 10th (although I had read that even before):
"Italy, which has aggressively tested for the virus since the start of their outbreak, including with post-mortem tests, even in those not known to have the virus."  


			https://www.thelocal.de/20200310/what-explains-the-low-coronavirus-death-rate-in-germany


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## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> The Wall Street Journal is reporting today that the number of deaths in Italy may drastically undercounted.
> 
> _"In the town of Coccaglio, an hour’s drive east of here, the local nursing home lost over a third of its residents in March. None of the 24 people who died there were tested for the new coronavirus. Nor were the 38 people who died in another nursing home in the nearby town of Lodi.
> 
> ...


Don't you actually feel the media narrative is directed to  serving one purpose? Stay the F home narrative?


----------



## dayooper (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Don't you actually feel the media narrative is directed to  serving one purpose? Stay the F home narrative?



And what narrative is that?


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> there is a known fact that there is a correlation between unemployment and death. So I may argue that may happen anyway.



What is it?


Harry


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> For how long? What if the number of new cases is not ZERO in the United States in 6 months from now? What do you actually recommend now we should do then? It is a pretty simple question.


"Under control" is not zero new cases, just as having the annual flu under control does not mean we don't have any cases or deaths.  I believe under control is when we are no longer at risk of overwhelming our medical capacities.  We are going to have many more cases and deaths -- that is a given.  It's all a balancing act and not an all or nothing (i.e. ZERO new cases).  Do you think otherwise?

Kurt


----------



## dayooper (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> sure, March 10th (although I had read that even before):
> "Italy, which has aggressively tested for the virus since the start of their outbreak, including with post-mortem tests, even in those not known to have the virus."
> 
> 
> https://www.thelocal.de/20200310/what-explains-the-low-coronavirus-death-rate-in-germany



I read the article and I guess I’m not sure what your point is. Are you saying that Italy lied about who died of the virus? Are they trying to say more people died if it than really did? Are you saying that the numbers world wide are lower that what they should be due to the fact that more people are dying from the disease than we think until they are rested post-mortem? Or are you saying that their numbers infected are lower because they were testing people post-mortem and it was coming out negative? 

I’m sure I’m missing something, here. Please explain your point.


----------



## Panina (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Can you please just tell me the metric you would use to lift the lockdown? Let's take South Korea as an example. After 6 weeks of containment they have the SAME number of new cases as at the beginning (about 100 per day) . The number of new cases does not go down. What would you do in their case? What are the scientists telling us? Nothing actually.


One would be if there are Antibody tests for the masses.  Those who had it could go back to work, volunteer if retired.  Still will be risky as we don’t know if one can get it again and be a carrier even if they don’t get it again.  Another scenario would be if they find a treatment that works for those who that are dying.   The questions are they telling us everything or what do they know that they aren’t telling us?


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> "Under control" is not zero new cases, just as having the annual flu under control does not mean we don't have any cases or death.  I believe under control is when we are no longer at risk of overwhelming our medical capacities.  We are going to have many more cases and deaths -- that is a given.  It's all a balancing act and not an all or nothing (i.e. ZERO new cases).  Do you think otherwise?
> 
> Kurt


I hope you are right and they will use your metric, it is very reasonable. 
You have just been appointed the head of the Task force 

Like @Panina  I also hope that the testing will be up to where it should be very soon and that some of the treatments will actually prove to work sooner rather than later.


----------



## needvaca (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> This is part of the problem, nobody seems to know how many would have actually died regardless, in Italy and elsewhere. This is the perfect storm that you cannot fight or ignore, you just assume it is there and that it is bad.


Yes they do. The model shows US deaths at 2-2.5m people if there had been no intervention.  
I choose intervention and life where possible


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

I now regret posting this article. It is not a good time to ask a taboo question. These are questions that can be asked later. Emotions and uncertainty are too high now.


----------



## pedro47 (Apr 1, 2020)

Are we overreacting to this crisis. No if you live in the following states PA, GA, Texas and FL. IMHO.


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## PigsDad (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> You have just been appointed the head of the Task force


No thank you!    

Kurt


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

I actually find it offensive that those who ask questions are labelled as not choosing "life over death". Not directly here but the message is pretty clear. We do not have  family, friends neighbors that are older or Immuno suppressed, right? What if we are ourselves in a potentially more dangerous due to health conditions or have loved ones in the front lines?


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I now regret posting this article. It is not a good time to ask a taboo question. These are questions that can be asked later. Emotions and uncertainty are too high now.


I think it was a good question to ask, and that many others were thinking as well.  I apologize if my emotions got the better of me at times.  We are all in this together, and this can be a very emotional time for us all.  Cheers!

Kurt


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> No thank you!
> 
> Kurt


sorry, this is not your choice


----------



## Luanne (Apr 1, 2020)

Watch this and see if you think anyone is over-reacting.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

We were discussing the pandemic at our online staff meeting today. No one wants to come back to work even if the SIP is lifted. My office is closed indefinitely. I actually prefer it this way. I do not want to be responsible for someone coming in with the virus and having to deal with the consequences of that. Right now, I much prefer having a closed office than dealing with the stress of everyone worrying and then I have to worry too. So I am choosing to keep my office closed even when we get cleared to return to work. Assuming my business still exists by then.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Watch this and see if you think anyone is over-reacting.


has he created a video about how other 100 things kill you?


----------



## dayooper (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I actually find it offensive that those who ask questions are labelled as not choosing "life over death". Not directly here but the message is pretty clear. We do not have  family, friends neighbors that are older or Immuno suppressed, right? What if we are ourselves in a potentially more dangerous due to health conditions or have loved ones in the front lines?



I completely agree with this. No one should be labeled that way. It’s way too simplistic. It also bothers me when people get labeled by their political beliefs. The names people call each other and how they think about the other side does no good.


----------



## Luanne (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> has he created a video about how other 100 things kill you?


Was that comment even necessary?  It's obvious you haven't even watched it yet.  You wouldn't have had enough time. Nice you can be so cavalier about it.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Are you serious? Can you say for sure you will have a job in 6 months? Tech companies for example think they are more or less immune to this. Really? Take Microsoft for example: how many annual subscriptions will be cancelled if the unemployment goes up significantly? How many new movies will be bought on Apple or Google play? Can't you just watch a free older movie when you have no money and no job? Don't you have  a paperback book in your own library that you did not read yet so you do not have to buy something new for your kindle? How is the pay per click model gonna look if companies will think there is no need to advertise since nobody is buying anyways? Who's gonna pay for thise ads? Bread a
> pasta? Egg farms? The idea of essential services and what people spend when they stay at home will be very different after 6 months of a crisis. Out of an abundance of caution I cancelled  all the tech subscriptions that were "nice to have" but that I do not actually need. I do not think I am  that unique.
> 
> If you work for the government, can you say for sure that there won't be any layoffs when the government realizes it may not be have the investors to pay for the new debt? Or that they will have to pay 5% interest?  If you work in a Walmart, what tells you that people will buy more than just food for an extended period of time and that the store will  keep everyone on the payroll?
> If you are retired, can you say for sure that you will continue to receive the same benefits? In Japan 75% of the insurers went under in time because of the low interest environment. Can you say for sure your annuity will pay forever like nothing happened?


These are valid questions and worthy of serious consideration. I just hope that we can leave out ALL the Politics and have a civil discussion here on TUG. Thank you for posting this thread. AL


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Don't you actually feel the media narrative is directed to  serving one purpose? Stay the F home narrative?


  Well yes because every government official (including the hoax crowd) and expert in the field is saying the same thing.  Should they not have that narrative.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 1, 2020)

dayooper said:


> Hmmmm . . . A lot to unpack on this one. Would you rather have a love one lose their job and declare bankruptcy or die? We had one of my daughters friends (not a close one) and his father die a few days ago. They were 20 and late 40’s, respectively. Their mom/wife is now left alone here with no family members around. Both were healthy with no known underlying medical issues. I wonder, if the mom could decide one or the other, which choice she would choose?
> 
> With that being said, there needs to be middle ground. We are in uncharted waters here with nothing but what the US and what others countries have done and are doing as reference. We have to sift through everything that has been done, decide what works/doesn’t work and find our best path forward. Right now, we have a pandemic that we are dealing with and that, in my opinion, should be first and foremost. As we start to get a grip on what works with the pandemic, we can then tackle the economy. Things may never be the same again (or take a very long time to get back where we were). Things aren’t alway rosy and bad things happen. The only way we are going to get through this is by not getting at each others throats, utilizing the talents that we have and doing our part for the common good.
> 
> ...


Dayouper i feel your concern and my prayers go out to you. I couldnt have formed a better response to this thread and whole heartily agree with everything you said so calmly and reasoned here. Thank you. AL from Michigan.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> These are valid questions and worthy of serious consideration. I just hope that we can leave out ALL the Politics and have a civil discussion here on TUG. Thank you for posting this thread. AL


  In the vein of this I will say what some one can do to change my mind.  Everyone knows what side I am on.

The best modeling we have says we can save 2 million lives by complete social distancing.  That was explained by the modelers as 75% reduction in social contacts, 50% reduction in work contacts, and 25% increase in familial contacts.  They gave their reason for using those numbers by citing other pandemic research on what is attainable.  So someone can show me different modeling that says we are not saving as many people by this proposed over reaction.

Second some one can convince me that the bulk of the economic hardship would not have happened anyway.  Show me a study of a population that was under the stress we are under and did not have that stress show up in economic data.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Well yes because every government official (including the hoax crowd) and expert in the field is saying the same thing.  Should they not have that narrative.


Italy has had about 13,000 death and a much higher mortality rate than most other countries  for a number of reasons. Most reports I read from Europe have claimed that Italy has actually over reported the number of deaths, and I wrote about this before. Now few N.A. media outlets are saying that some 40 cases may have not been reported (but they have no proof of that) and all of the sudden, the mortality rate should be even higher in Italy. Please allow me to be very skeptical of this type of reporting.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> In the vein of this I will say what some one can do to change my mind.  Everyone knows what side I am on.
> 
> The best modeling we have says we can save 2 million lives by complete social distancing.


Adjusted for the number of people, Sweden will then have about 65,000 coronavirus related deaths and Brasil about 1.3 millions. Let's keep those numbers in mind and see in a few months what happens.


----------



## dayooper (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Italy has had about 13,000 death and a much higher mortality rate than most other countries  for a number of reasons. Most reports I read from Europe have claimed that Italy has actually over reported the number of deaths, and I wrote about this before. Now few N.A. media outlets are saying that some 40 cases may have not been reported (but they have no proof of that) and all of the sudden, the mortality rate should be even higher in Italy. Please allow me to be very skeptical of this type of reporting.



What media outlets? I’m just curious.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

I just realized that most people commenting on this article's headline have probably not been able to read it because it is behind a paywall. The article is very well written and thoughtful. It is not advocating profits over people at all.


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## Brett (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I just realized that most people commenting on this article's headline have probably not been able to read it because it is behind a paywall. The article is very well written and thoughtful. It is not advocating profits over people at all.




true - but if one chooses to erase or manage their 'cookies" in their browser or uses a free program like CCleaner then the article can be viewed


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## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Adjusted for the number of people, Sweden will then have about 65,000 coronavirus related deaths and Brasil about 1.3 millions. Let's keep those numbers in mind and see in a few months what happens.



  Sweden is certainly social distancing as the article someone posted reported the government is asking them to and swedes do not need to be ordered as a cultural thing. 

I wonder how long Brasil will persist as there are demonstrations in the streets.  I will assume the real control will never be done.  They will certainly be late to the party so we will see when this is over by looking at death rate in the population with those that shut down early as well as those that started late.  If in the end the data shows self isolating had little effect I will do my mea culpa.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Sweden is certainly social distancing as the article someone posted reported the government is asking them to and swedes do not need to be ordered as a cultural thing.
> 
> I wonder how long Brasil will persist as there are demonstrations in the streets.  I will assume the real control will never be done.  They will certainly be late to the party so we will see when this is over by looking at death rate in the population with those that shut down early as well as those that started late.  If in the end the data shows self isolating had little effect I will do my mea culpa.


Social distancing and  closing everything down like US are  two very different approaches so I am still curious to see how these two countries are going to fare


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Social distancing and  closing everything down like US are  two very different approaches so I am still curious to see how these two countries are going to fare


If you read the kings college paper you will see you are wrong in that assumption

Here is data to back me up  while not modeling deaths it does model hospital admissions which I think we can both agree do correlate.  Social distancing saves up to 90% of hospitalizations.









						The Effectiveness of Social Distancing in Mitigating COVID-19 Spread: a modelling analysis
					

Background The novel coronavirus COVID-19 has been classified by the World Health Organisation as a pandemic due to its worldwide spread. The ability of countries to contain and control transmission is critical in the absence of a vaccine. We evaluated a range of social distancing measures to...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## Brett (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Social distancing and  closing everything down like US are  two very different approaches so I am still curious to see how these two countries are going to fare



different approaches should be reviewed
How Taiwan (the other China) responded to the coronavirus 
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-taiwan-case-study-rapid-response-containment-2020-3


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> If you read the kings college paper you will see you are wrong in that assumption
> 
> Here is data to back me up  while not modeling deaths it does model hospital admissions which I think we can both agree do correlate.  Social distancing saves up to 90% of hospitalizations.
> 
> ...



I am confused by your point. In this article, they talk about 4 different social distancing methods. Not sure what you mean by this is the data to back it up. I think Danny's point is that social distancing is not the same as a statewide or countrywide Shelter in Place mandate. SIP is much more extreme than social distancing. In California, we had social distancing first and then we moved to statewide SIP. With social distancing, businesses were still open. With SIP, everyone who could started working at home. In Sweden, people are social distancing but businesses are still open and people still eat in restaurants. They are being more careful but not to the extreme as we are in the USA.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> If you read the kings college paper you will see you are wrong in that assumption
> 
> Here is data to back me up  while not modeling deaths it does model hospital admissions which I think we can both agree do correlate.  Social distancing saves up to 90% of hospitalizations.
> 
> ...


you did not understand what I said. Social distancing is practiced by Sweden but they have not done a virtually total shutdown (that includes but is not limited to social distancing). In that context I will be very curious how Sweden will fare vs the US


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I am confused by your point. In this article, they talk about 4 different social distancing methods. Not sure what you mean by this is the data to back it up. I think Danny's point is that social distancing is not the same as a statewide or countrywide Shelter in Place mandate. SIP is much more extreme than social distancing. In California, we had social distancing first and then we moved to statewide SIP. With social distancing, businesses were still open. With SIP, everyone who could started working at home. In Sweden, people are social distancing but businesses are still open and people still eat in restaurants. They are being more careful but not to the extreme as we are in the USA.


  So again we argue semantics in the weeds.  Please show a study or model that supports your thesis.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> So again we argue semantics in the weeds.  Please show a study or model that supports your thesis.



I did not present a thesis. What are you talking about? You have a very argumentative style and jump to conclusions.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

Brett said:


> different approaches should be reviewed
> How Taiwan (the other China) responded to the coronavirus
> https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-taiwan-case-study-rapid-response-containment-2020-3


This  is an interesting article that suggests to me they had very accurate  intelligence very early (December)  that they did not share with others but acted very decisively on.  I just do not believe that all their actions were based on the report that China had some pneumonia cases, it is not logical. This is also telling me that China had known about this for longer. 

Taiwan's early approach (like monitoring people coming  from China before and after landing) would have been completely not acceptable politically in the US at the time, everyone would have accused the authorities of racial profiling. The multi layers of governments and a much more culturally diverse population also make the response less easy in the US.

Related to this I found the January 9th WHO press release about the corona virus. I do not understand why dr Fauci so vigorously defends WHO and its leadership. I am not sure how those people still have their jobs. From the press release:

*WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers. WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the information currently available.*









						WHO Statement Regarding Cluster of Pneumonia Cases in Wuhan, China
					

Chinese authorities have made a preliminary determination of a novel (or new) coronavirus, identified in a hospitalized person with pneumonia in Wuhan. Chinese investigators conducted gene sequencing of the virus, using an isolate from one positive patient sample. Preliminary identification of a...




					www.who.int


----------



## dayooper (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> you did not understand what I said. Social distancing is practiced by Sweden but they have not done a virtually total shutdown (that includes but is not limited to social distancing). In that context I will be very curious how Sweden will fare vs the US



According to world o meter: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?ref=tjournal.ru#countries

Sweden has 24 deaths per million of population while the US has 15 per million. These are updated every day and this data was taken on April 1 2020. The data is reported deaths.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

dayooper said:


> According to world o meter: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?ref=tjournal.ru#countries
> 
> Sweden has 24 deaths per million of population while the US has 15 per million. These are updated every day and this data was taken on April 1 2020. The data is reported deaths.


US has a 2 week lag in the spread of the virus so do not brag about that yet. 
Also, 15 vs 24 may not be that statistically different when you account for different methods of reporting. For sure though it is not 10 times more as others claimed would have happened in the US without the SIP


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Italy has had about 13,000 death and a much higher mortality rate than most other countries for a number of reasons. Most reports I read from Europe have claimed that Italy has actually over reported the number of deaths, and I wrote about this before. Now few N.A. media outlets are saying that some 40 cases may have not been reported (but they have no proof of that) and all of the sudden, the mortality rate should be even higher in Italy. Please allow me to be very skeptical of this type of reporting.



Please allow me to be skeptical of your reporting what you are reading in reports from Europe. I have read many reports from all over the world that the earth is flat? If you want to cite some actual sources, go for it. If you’re basically just going to say you read it on the internet, I’m out.


Harry


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## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I did not present a thesis. What are you talking about? You have a very argumentative style and jump to conclusions.


You started this thread and have made it quite clear you think the government is over reacting.  You cannot start a thread asking the taboo question and not expect some push back.


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## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Please allow me to be skeptical of your reporting what you are reading in reports from Europe. I have read many reports from all over the world that the earth is flat? If you want to cite some actual sources, go for it. If you’re basically just going to say you read it on the internet, I’m out.
> 
> 
> Harry


did you actually read the comments posted today on this thread? I posted the link earlier.


----------



## x3 skier (Apr 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I now regret posting this article. It is not a good time to ask a taboo question. These are questions that can be asked later. Emotions and uncertainty are too high now.



No need to apologize.  The discussion it engendered has been almost all reasonable and well expressed.  Differing viewpoints are always interesting and Illuminating until the final answers are known. Even then, Monday Morning Quarterbacks will always exist .

I for one am glad you started the thread.

Cheers


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> You started this thread and have made it quite clear you think the government is over reacting.  You cannot start a thread asking the taboo question and not expect some push back.


Why on Earth should this actually be a taboo question when the government is spending (so far) 2 trillion dollars on this? I do not get it


----------



## dayooper (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> US has a 2 week lag in the spread of the virus so do not brag about that yet.



I’m not bragging. You asked a question and I found the most updated answer. I take no pleasure in this entire process and I sincerely hope you don’t think I have a desire to “win.” If that’s your goal or think it’s mine, then we should stop this discussion as it won’t be productive. While I don’t agree with your opinion, I think it’s best that I try to understand your point of view. There have been points in this discussion everyone can learn from. I understand that I’m not the be all, end all on this (or any) topic. I ask questions to understand points I don’t understand or want clarification on. 

I sincerely wish we were talking about the pros and cons of the HGVC system or the whether the difference in booking windows in the new NYC bHC resorts is fair or not.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Why on Earth should this actually be a taboo question when the government is spending (so far) 2 trillion dollars on this? I do not get it


Taboo was not my word.  It is certainly not taboo but you have to expect strong feelings when discussing death and money especially in the world of the last few weeks.  I went down the rabbit hole when I kept hearing the results of modeling being taken out of context and misquoted.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

dayooper said:


> I’m not bragging. You asked a question and I found the most updated answer. I take no pleasure in this entire process and I sincerely hope you don’t think I have a desire to “win.” If that’s your goal or think it’s mine, then we should stop this discussion as it won’t be productive. While I don’t agree with your opinion, I think it’s best that I try to understand your point of view. There have been points in this discussion everyone can learn from. I understand that I’m not the be all, end all on this (or any) topic. I ask questions to understand points I don’t understand or want clarification on.
> 
> I sincerely wish we were talking about the pros and cons of the HGVC system or the whether the difference in booking windows in the new NYC bHC resorts is fair or not.


sorry, I did not mean bragging in a malicious way. But I do believe we are still early in the data especially in the US and that detail is not important at this moment. I agree with you, no one is winning in this discussions it is all grey and black


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 1, 2020)

bluehende said:


> You started this thread and have made it quite clear you think the government is over reacting.  You cannot start a thread asking the taboo question and not expect some push back.



What is ironic is that I have never actually stated that I think the government is over reacting. Someone asked me this question a couple days ago and I said I do not know but I hope so because then it means things are not as bad as projected. I started the thread to share a very interesting article with some important issues and listen to opinions of Tuggers. I do not think many people have read the article I posted because it is behind a firewall and I did not copy and paste any of it.


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## DannyTS (Apr 1, 2020)

I do hope they will get the serology tests very soon so we can know who has already had the virus and is immune now and can go back to a more normal life. Not to mention this is going to show the real picture of the mortality rate.


----------



## MrockStar (Apr 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I do hope they will get the serology tests very soon so we can know who has already had the virus and is immune now and can go back to a more normal life. Not to mention this is going to show the real picture of the mortality rate.


Me too, i think i may have already had it. So really would like to know so i can donate blood plasma to help others who may need it.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

An Open Letter from Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, to the German Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel. Professor Bhakdi calls for an urgent reassessment of the response to Covid-19 and asks the Chancellor five crucial questions. The letter is dated March 26. This is an unofficial translation; see the original letter in German as a PDF.

Open Letter
Dear Chancellor,

As Emeritus of the Johannes-Gutenberg-University in Mainz and longtime director of the Institute for Medical Microbiology, I feel obliged to critically question the far-reaching restrictions on public life that we are currently taking on ourselves in order to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

It is expressly not my intention to play down the dangers of the virus or to spread a political message. However, I feel it is my duty to make a scientific contribution to putting the current data and facts into perspective – and, in addition, to ask questions that are in danger of being lost in the heated debate.

The reason for my concern lies above all in the truly unforeseeable socio-economic consequences of the drastic containment measures which are currently being applied in large parts of Europe and which are also already being practiced on a large scale in Germany.

My wish is to discuss critically – and with the necessary foresight – the advantages and disadvantages of restricting public life and the resulting long-term effects.

To this end, I am confronted with five questions which have not been answered sufficiently so far, but which are indispensable for a balanced analysis.

I would like to ask you to comment quickly and, at the same time, appeal to the Federal Government to develop strategies that effectively protect risk groups without restricting public life across the board and sow the seeds for an even more intensive polarization of society than is already taking place.

With the utmost respect,

Prof. em. Dr. med. Sucharit Bhakdi

1. Statistics
In infectiology – founded by Robert Koch himself – a traditional distinction is made between infection and disease. An illness requires a clinical manifestation. [1] Therefore, only patients with symptoms such as fever or cough should be included in the statistics as new cases.

In other words, a new infection – as measured by the COVID-19 test – does not necessarily mean that we are dealing with a newly ill patient who needs a hospital bed. However, it is currently assumed that five percent of all infected people become seriously ill and require ventilation. Projections based on this estimate suggest that the healthcare system could be overburdened.

My question: Did the projections make a distinction between symptom-free infected people and actual, sick patients – i.e. people who develop symptoms?

2. Dangerousness
A number of coronaviruses have been circulating for a long time – largely unnoticed by the media. [2] If it should turn out that the COVID-19 virus should not be ascribed a significantly higher risk potential than the already circulating corona viruses, all countermeasures would obviously become unnecessary.

The internationally recognized International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents will soon publish a paper that addresses exactly this question. Preliminary results of the study can already be seen today and lead to the conclusion that the new virus is NOT different from traditional corona viruses in terms of dangerousness. The authors express this in the title of their paper „SARS-CoV-2: Fear versus Data“. [3]

My question: How does the current workload of intensive care units with patients with diagnosed COVID-19 compare to other coronavirus infections, and to what extent will this data be taken into account in further decision-making by the federal government? In addition: Has the above study been taken into account in the planning so far?  Here too, of course, „diagnosed“ means that the virus plays a decisive role in the patient’s state of illness, and not that previous illnesses play a greater role.

3. Dissemination
According to a report in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, not even the much-cited Robert Koch Institute knows exactly how much is tested for COVID-19. It is a fact, however, that a rapid increase in the number of cases has recently been observed in Germany as the volume of tests increases. [4]

It is therefore reasonable to suspect that the virus has already spread unnoticed in the healthy population. This would have two consequences: firstly, it would mean that the official death rate – on 26 March 2020, for example, there were 206 deaths from around 37,300 infections, or 0.55 percent [5] – is too high; and secondly, it would mean that it would hardly be possible to prevent the virus from spreading in the healthy population.

My question: Has there already been a random sample of the healthy general population to validate the real spread of the virus, or is this planned in the near future?

4. Mortality
The fear of a rise in the death rate in Germany (currently 0.55 percent) is currently the subject of particularly intense media attention. Many people are worried that it could shoot up like in Italy (10 percent) and Spain (7 percent) if action is not taken in time.

At the same time, the mistake is being made worldwide to report virus-related deaths as soon as it is established that the virus was present at the time of death – regardless of other factors. This violates a basic principle of infectiology: only when it is certain that an agent has played a significant role in the disease or death may a diagnosis be made. The Association of the Scientific Medical Societies of Germany expressly writes in its guidelines: „In addition to the cause of death, a causal chain must be stated, with the corresponding underlying disease in third place on the death certificate. Occasionally, four-linked causal chains must also be stated.“ [6]

At present there is no official information on whether, at least in retrospect, more critical analyses of medical records have been undertaken to determine how many deaths were actually caused by the virus.

My question: Has Germany simply followed this trend of a COVID-19 general suspicion? And: is it intended to continue this categorisation uncritically as in other countries? How, then, is a distinction to be made between genuine corona-related deaths and accidental virus presence at the time of death?

5. Comparability
The appalling situation in Italy is repeatedly used as a reference scenario. However, the true role of the virus in that country is completely unclear for many reasons – not only because points 3 and 4 above also apply here, but also because exceptional external factors exist which make these regions particularly vulnerable.

One of these factors is the increased air pollution in the north of Italy. According to WHO estimates, this situation, even without the virus, led to over 8,000 additional deaths per year in 2006 in the 13 largest cities in Italy alone. [7] The situation has not changed significantly since then. [8] Finally, it has also been shown that air pollution greatly increases the risk of viral lung diseases in very young and elderly people. [9]

Moreover, 27.4 percent of the particularly vulnerable population in this country live with young people, and in Spain as many as 33.5 percent. In Germany, the figure is only seven percent [10]. In addition, according to Prof. Dr. Reinhard Busse, head of the Department of Management in Health Care at the TU Berlin, Germany is significantly better equipped than Italy in terms of intensive care units – by a factor of about 2.5 [11].

My question: What efforts are being made to make the population aware of these elementary differences and to make people understand that scenarios like those in Italy or Spain are not realistic here?

References:
[1] Fachwörterbuch Infektionsschutz und Infektionsepidemiologie. Fachwörter – Definitionen – Interpretationen. Robert Koch-Institut, Berlin 2015. (abgerufen am 26.3.2020)

[2] Killerby et al., Human Coronavirus Circulation in the United States 2014–2017. J Clin Virol. 2018, 101, 52-56

[3] Roussel et al. SARS-CoV-2: Fear Versus Data. Int. J. Antimicrob. Agents 2020, 105947

[4] Charisius, H. Covid-19: Wie gut testet Deutschland? Süddeutsche Zeitung. (abgerufen am 27.3.2020)

[5] Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center. 2020. (abgerufen am 26.3.2020)

[6] S1-Leitlinie 054-001, Regeln zur Durchführung der ärztlichen Leichenschau. AWMF Online (abgerufen am 26.3.2020)

[7] Martuzzi et al. Health Impact of PM10 and Ozone in 13 Italian Cities. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe. WHOLIS number E88700 2006

[8] European Environment Agency, Air Pollution Country Fact Sheets 2019, (abgerufen am 26.3.2020)

[9] Croft et al. The Association between Respiratory Infection and Air Pollution in the Setting of Air Quality Policy and Economic Change. Ann. Am. Thorac. Soc. 2019, 16, 321–330.

[10] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Living Arrangements of Older Persons: A Report on an Expanded International Dataset (ST/ESA/SER.A/407). 2017

[11] Deutsches Ärzteblatt, Überlastung deutscher Krankenhäuser durch COVID-19 laut Experten unwahrscheinlich, (abgerufen am 26.3.2020)


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Please allow me to be skeptical of your reporting what you are reading in reports from Europe. I have read many reports from all over the world that the earth is flat? If you want to cite some actual sources, go for it. If you’re basically just going to say you read it on the internet, I’m out.
> 
> 
> Harry


please read above the Open Letter from Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi.

Castigating those that challenge models that have been developed based on very early understanding of the data is actually anti-science. I can also see the political tint in what you wrote, totally inappropriate here. Thank you.


----------



## WVBaker (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> please read above the Open Letter from Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi.
> 
> Castigating those that challenge models that have been developed based on very early understanding of the data is actually anti-science. I can also see the political tint in what you wrote, totally inappropriate here. Thank you.


Don't be offended. That's simply the proverbial pot calling the kettle black.


----------



## Rolltydr (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> please read above the Open Letter from Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi.
> 
> Castigating those that challenge models that have been developed based on very early understanding of the data is actually anti-science. I can also see the political tint in what you wrote, totally inappropriate here. Thank you.



You have spent the better part of this thread railing against the government for some of the steps taken to try and slow the spread of covid-19, but I’m being political? Please point out to me the totally inappropriate political tint in my posts so that I can more careful with my subliminal messaging in the future.


Harry


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> please read above the Open Letter from Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi.
> 
> Castigating those that challenge models that have been developed based on very early understanding of the data is actually anti-science. I can also see the political tint in what you wrote, totally inappropriate here. Thank you.



Just as an FYI Danny, even a workaday plain old veterinarian like me is well aware of all the concepts presented in that open letter.  It’s nothing particularly insightful re any infectious disease.  Absolutely our public health decision makers are well aware of all of those factors that influence the models.  They have zero motivation for choosing model inputs that are excessively bleak and also hit the economy hard.  Yet, still knowing all that stuff presented in the open letter, they for now are sticking with their current models.

As more information becomes available as the disease plays out in the US, the models, predictions, and the governmental response will be modified.  That’s how this science works.

Every time I hear someone railing about the lockdown, I suggest instead of railing against the current actions that they clamor loudly and relentlessly that they want their government to make available widespread PCR and serologic testing.  It would be way more useful towards achieving everyone’s end goal of unlockdown.


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## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> Every time I hear someone railing about the lockdown, I suggest instead of railing against the current actions that they clamor loudly and relentlessly that* they want their government to make available widespread PCR and serologic testing*.  It would be way more useful towards achieving everyone’s end goal of unlockdown.


I agree with you about this but Dr Fauci said Yesterday this is not a priority for him


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I agree with you about this but Dr Fauci said Yesterday this is not a priority for him



Well then clamor for it.  That would be a much better use of your time.  Start a FB campaign, call your congressman, rent a billboard.  

I have not heard Fauci’s specific comment or what it’s context was- if he’s scrambling to get adequate PPE, or ventilators, or to work with hospitals to prevent collapse, or spending 2 hours pe day convincing the president not to relent on the lockdown until we have better public health measures in place, or going to press conferences and defending his positions from people like you who are clamoring for an end to the lockdown before adequate public health measures are in place, or arguing with people who claim because he’s for a lockdown right now he doesn’t understand the economic impact this will have on people.  All of those things might of necessity be a priority for him personally right now, while he’s simultaneously also feeling like testing is hugely important and those wheels are in motion.  I honestly don’t know.

But I do know that if we support the concept of a successful functioning government, if we make funds available to our public health agencies, and if we as a populace comply with what is being asked of us (and not divert resources and attention to convincing people to buy in to the lockdown), then this issue will be solved.  It’s in everyone’s interests for us to do so.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> Well then clamor for it.  That would be a much better use of your time.  Start a FB campaign, call your congressman, rent a billboard.
> 
> I have not heard Fauci’s specific comment or what it’s context was- if he’s scrambling to get adequate PPE, or ventilators, or to work with hospitals to prevent collapse, or spending 2 hours pe day convincing the president not to relent on the lockdown until we have better public health measures in place, or going to press conferences and defending his positions from people like you who are clamoring for an end to the lockdown before adequate public health measures are in place, or arguing with people who claim because he’s for a lockdown right now he doesn’t understand the economic impact this will have on people.  All of those things might of necessity be a priority for him personally right now, while he’s simultaneously also feeling like testing is hugely important and those wheels are in motion.  I honestly don’t know.
> 
> But I do know that if we support the concept of a successful functioning government, if we make funds available to our public health agencies, and if we as a populace comply with what is being asked of us (and not divert resources and attention to convincing people to buy in to the lockdown), then this issue will be solved.  It’s in everyone’s interests for us to do so.



Reporter 8: (01:07:35)
Can I follow up on antibody testing please, Dr. Fauci? At what point can we as a country expect there to be a widespread antibody testing so we know exactly what we’re dealing with here, as well as other questions such as, when can people who are deemed to be healthy donate blood, for example.

Dr. Fauci: (01:07:51)
Okay, so when you talk about antibody testing, there are a couple of things that you want to do. You want to find out if someone has been infected and whether or not they’re going to ultimately wind up being protected.* Antibody testing, right now, is not the first thing on our priority.* It’s something that we need to do is testing to see if someone is infected. It is very important ultimately to be able to get a feel for what the penetrance of the infection was in society for a number of reasons. You get a better feel of what the impact has been, but also you get a better feel of what the herd immunity would be. So I can foresee in the future that, when we get the facility, which we’ll have for sure… Ultimately, you can get a test that could do this reasonably easy, and do the kind of what we call sero-surveillance study.









						Donald Trump Coronavirus Task Force Briefing Transcripts April 1
					

Donald Trump: (00:05) Thank you very much everybody. Thank you. So America continues to wage all out war to defeat the virus, this horrible, horrible virus. Yo




					www.rev.com


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

the other interesting statement Dr Fauci made, he believes that the restrictions should be lifted when the  number of new cases is ZERO. When will this happen according to the models? Not in the next year. He also stated that we are 12-18 months from having a vaccine. If you put these two together you realize what he may have in mind. 

Reporter 5: (01:03:16)
Thanks Mr. President. Question for Dr. Fauci. Looking beyond when we’re on the other side of this curve, are we looking at living with some sort of social distancing guidelines essentially until there’s treatment or a vaccine. For example, people looking forward to the summer talk about going to baseball games, going to concerts. We have political conventions over the summer. Are things like that possible or safe without a vaccine or a treatment in place?

Dr. Fauci: (01:03:44)
Yeah, I think if we get to the part of the curve that Dr. Birx showed yesterday, *when it goes down to essentially no new cases, no deaths at a period of time, I think it makes sense that you’re going to have to relax social distancing.* The one thing we hopefully would have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who’s infected, isolate them, and then do contact tracing.


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

Yes he’s is saying antibody testing is important but it’s not as important as dealing with the crisis of people actively infected now.

He, I am sure, understands available resources and where priorities lie at this exact moment.

Serologic tests are not yet available essentially.  The CDC is working on it, as are private companies.  

The public health infrastructure for widespread testing does not exist, it will have to be developed.

Yes you need to prioritize management of the crisis aspect of any problem.  Which doesn’t mean the wheels are not in motion to solve the big picture problem as well.  

The strange thing I find when interacting with you is that you seem to feel people can only have one thing in their mind, and if they prioritize X over Y that they only care about X and not Y.  Which is just not how most people work.  Most people can care about X and Y simultaneously, even if they think X is more important than Y at the present moment.


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## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> Yes he’s is saying antibody testing is important but it’s not as important as dealing with the crisis of people actively infected now.
> 
> He, I am sure, understands available resources and where priorities lie at this exact moment.
> 
> ...


Something is odd though, Dr Birx is asking for help on national TV: "and our Universities can do that by Friday". It appears to me as there are important frictions on how much of a priority  this actually is. 

Concerning your comment, if you can shorten the length of the lock down even by one week (but possibly by many) it should be a  very top priority.


Dr. Birx: (01:11:52)
And so this I think would be very reassuring to our frontline healthcare workers. And our universities can do that by Friday. So I’m putting that challenge out to them to really work on that and do that. That’s what we did in the early days. We had a ELISA’s up and running within days of having the antigen. And so this is what’s really possible. So we’re not waiting. We’re asking for help now.


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Something is odd though, Dr Birx is asking for help on national TV: "and our Universities can do that by Friday":
> 
> 
> Dr. Birx: (01:11:52)
> And so this I think would be very reassuring to our frontline healthcare workers. And our universities can do that by Friday. So I’m putting that challenge out to them to really work on that and do that. That’s what we did in the early days. We had a ELISA’s up and running within days of having the antigen. And so this is what’s really possible. So we’re not waiting. We’re asking for help now.



No idea what you’re trying to say.

Private companies are working on serologic tests, universities, the CDC.  Becton Dickinson has a bedside test ready to go, will need to mass produce it which will take a minute and it’s not the ideal test which will take longer to develop.  There’s investigation into the adequacy of serologic tests developed in other countries and whether we could get enough of those tests for use in the US.

There’s the science of developing the tests and making sure they’re accurate.
There’s the logistics of manufacturing the tests in large quantity.
There’s the logistics of obtaining the test samples and running the tests.
There’s questions as to when the tests should be run in the disease course.
There’s the logistics of tracking all of this info at a public health level and doing something sensible with the info.

The entirety of this is not a series of things that are going to happen “by Friday”.  But they are all being worked on simultaneously.  Some of the steps are of necessity sequential in nature.

I’m not sure what your belief is- because those things are happening but sick people who are actually dying now are the top priority we’re taking the completely wrong approach and ‘doing it wrong’?  That we’d be better off in the US perhaps if we put Danny himself in charge?


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## "Roger" (Apr 2, 2020)

There are two ways to test for coronavirus (both mentioned by Heathpack). I believe if you read Dr. Fauci's statement correctly (and I did look at the full transcript),_ he would really like an antibody tes_t, but at the moment this is not a priority. 

There is nothing in Dr. Fauci's statement that says that he would not like widespread testing using PCR tests which discover whether the coronavirus is currently active. The advantage of the antibody test is that it would discover if a person ever had the coronovirus even if it is not currently active. Why wouldn't that currently be a priority? My guess is that in Fauci's estimate, it is a long way in the future before we will be able to develop such a test and we need help NOW. (He does mention that with HIV, it took two years to develop an antibody test.)


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## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> No idea what you’re trying to say.
> 
> Private companies are working on serologic tests, universities, the CDC.  Becton Dickinson has a bedside test ready to go, will need to mass produce it which will take a minute and it’s not the ideal test which will take longer to develop.  There’s investigation into the adequacy of serologic tests developed in other countries and whether we could get enough of those tests for use in the US.
> 
> ...


we shall see, I have been following the media for days to see if the wheels are indeed in  motion on this but I did not see it. If hope you are right and it is being done and the media did not report it yet or maybe I just missed it.


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## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> There are two ways to test for coronavirus (both mentioned by Heathpack). I believe if you read Dr. Fauci's statement correctly (and I did look at the full transcript),_ he would really like an antibody tes_t, but at the moment this is not a priority.
> 
> There is nothing in Dr. Fauci's statement that says that he would not like widespread testing using PCR tests which discover whether the coronavirus is currently active. The advantage of the antibody test is that it would discover if a person ever had the coronovirus even if it is not currently active. Why wouldn't that currently be a priority? My guess is that in Fauci's estimate, it is a long way in the future before we will be able to develop such a test and we need help NOW. (He does mention that with HIV, it took two years to develop an antibody test.)


there is a huge difference between desire and action


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## bluehende (Apr 2, 2020)

Here is a good article on immunity.









						What Scientists Know About Immunity to the Novel Coronavirus
					

Though COVID-19 likely makes recovered patients immune, experts aren't sure how long protection lasts




					www.smithsonianmag.com


----------



## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> we shall see, I have been following the media for days to see if the wheels are indeed in  motion on this but I did not see it. If hope you are right and it is being done and the media did not report it yet or maybe I just missed it.



What could you conceivably imagine to be the motivation for people who understand these things (epidemiologists, infectious disease specialists, biomedical firms, etc) to NOT be working on these important things?  They’d rather sit and watch Rome burn vs make money, get tenure, become invaluable to their governmental agency?

The current messaging on this crisis could be better.  People are confused about aspects of this that aren’t confusing.  Even when I try to explain basic aspects of this situation to friends who know me- things like “this infection is spread in the air”- I get arguments and push back because they read something different on FB or heard something different from some sketchy source.

The truth is there is real danger in everyone thinking they’re an expert.  Everyone proclaiming (without adequate background or knowledge or information to do so) that they “know better” than someone else who actually has the expertise and qualifications to distribute a the currently best message.  There’s real danger in second guessing every revision of policy and taking that as “proof” that the initial policy was “wrong” (as opposed to “that’s the nature of the evolution of understanding of things”).

I also very much fault official government communications on this subject, I don’t think it’s solely the populace who has lost ability to think critically and weigh the relative credibility of various sources of info.  As a veterinarian every day I must control the conversation, I have to tell people what they need to know vs let them ramble and go off on a zillion tangents as to what they *think* they need to know.  There’s an art to it, and you have to indulge it somewhat, but I have to (sometimes forcefully) always bring the conversation back to the relevant info.  I would fault our governments communications as not being constantly “on message” and telling people exactly what they need to know while managing the inevitable attempts to focus on irrelevant tangents.  PS my (generally) clients love me, you can do all this very firmly but in a palatable way.


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## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Here is a good article on immunity.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


actually Dr. Birx believes you should be immune 99.9% of the time


Dr. Birx: (01:11:13)
And then finally we've reached out to the developers of the rapid test, the ones who developed it for malaria, the ones that developed them for HIV. It's exactly the same concept and process to ask them to rapidly develop these tests because I think we owe it to the frontline healthcare providers, not only to provide them RNA test, but many of them have been on the front line now for four weeks, may have become exposed. We now know there's asymptomatic. And, I think, really being able to tell them the peace of mind that would come from knowing you already were infected. *You have antibody, you're safe from reinfection 99.9% of the time. *


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> What could you conceivably imagine to be the motivation for people who understand these things (epidemiologists, infectious disease specialists, biomedical firms, etc) to NOT be working on these important things?  They’d rather sit and watch Rome burn vs make money, get tenure, become invaluable to their governmental agency?
> 
> The current messaging on this crisis could be better.  People are confused about aspects of this that aren’t confusing.  Even when I try to explain basic aspects of this situation to friends who know me- things like “this infection is spread in the air”- I get arguments and push back because they read something different on FB or heard something different from some sketchy source.
> 
> ...



According to WHO: "Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence."


			https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
		






__





						Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations
					

Scientific brief




					www.who.int
				





According to CDC: "It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."









						COVID-19 and Your Health
					

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.




					www.cdc.gov
				





These are two things that people are commonly telling others but the science does not currently support it. Maybe that will change or maybe they had different beliefs before. I have seen some preliminary studies that coronavirus may remain airborne for a few hours. WHO says: "A recent publication in the New England Journal of Medicine has evaluated virus persistence of the COVID-19 virus.10 In this experimental study, aerosols were generated using a three-jet Collison nebulizer and fed into a Goldberg drum under controlled laboratory conditions. This is a high-powered machine that does not reflect normal human cough conditions. Further, the finding of COVID-19 virus in aerosol particles up to 3 hours does not reflect a clinical setting in which aerosol-generating procedures are performed—that is, this was an experimentally induced aerosol-generating procedure."

I was watching a talk by a doctor at Cornell Weill in NYC and he stated both of the above statements as what they currently know about coronavirus / Covid 19. He said the main way you get covid-19 is through prolonged contact with someone who has it and touching your face.  He said if you keep your hands clean and do not touch your face, the chances of you getting it are very small.


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## bluehende (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> actually Dr. Birx believes you should be immune 99.9% of the time
> 
> 
> Dr. Birx: (01:11:13)
> And then finally we've reached out to the developers of the rapid test, the ones who developed it for malaria, the ones that developed them for HIV. It's exactly the same concept and process to ask them to rapidly develop these tests because I think we owe it to the frontline healthcare providers, not only to provide them RNA test, but many of them have been on the front line now for four weeks, may have become exposed. We now know there's asymptomatic. And, I think, really being able to tell them the peace of mind that would come from knowing you already were infected. *You have antibody, you're safe from reinfection 99.9% of the time. *


She also said the Kings college model had changed so excuse me if I take her opinion with a grain of salt.  And we will not go into other false claims that have come from that podium.  I would love to see long lasting immunity from a single exposure, but that is not known unless you have another source for that number I can check.


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## caribbeanqueen (Apr 2, 2020)

There needs to be an antibody test so those of us who believe we have had it but never tested can donate plasma to save others.  While I realize they have enough on their plate as it is and thinking this way is oversimplifying things, I do believe it could make a world of difference to those critically ill.
If we have to wait till there is not one single case in all of the US, most companies will be bankrupt. You will then have many dying by suicide and this will be happening as time goes on sadly.   As for China, you cannot believe anything they say. They have lied from day one.  Also, leaders from WHO, for some reason, are praising China and their efforts. Who director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus  came out early on with a press conference to the US saying he felt there was very low risk of this disease spreading here.  I knew right then and there it was a bunch of BS and common sense told us it would spread everywhere. The Chinese have held back for many months of telling anyone this disease was rampant throughout Wuhan and anyone, including doctors, who tried to sound the warning bell went missing or died. Start researching this.
I do not think models will help us really because every country is different. Italy has a more elder population and many smoke.  We will not know anything until after the fact. Hoping we can start giving those who are critical medications and plasma to save lives and cut down on the death rate.
Hope those here can discuss without fighting. This was a good question to ask and debate. On the flip side of this, the many who do contract this disease (and recover easily) will hopefully be immune if it comes around again. That is not a bad thing.   Get their plasma into those who have not and give them the antibodies.
*edited for typos.


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## Jan M. (Apr 2, 2020)

I hope heathpack will correct me if I'm wrong about this. Viruses mutate and that is fact. We all know if you've had a cold or the flu you aren't immune to ever getting another cold or case of the flu. What no one can say for certain simply because there isn't the data yet to make a definitive statement is if you've had Covid-19 whether or not it will give you immunity to the next mutated version of it.


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## am1 (Apr 2, 2020)

What will it take for China to be held liable for their under reporting and not closing the borders earlier?  Resulting in tens of thousands of lives lost and how many trillions in financial losses.


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

Jan M. said:


> I hope heathpack will correct me if I'm wrong about this. Viruses mutate and that is fact. We all know if you've had a cold or the flu you aren't immune to ever getting another cold or case of the flu. What no one can say for certain simply because there isn't the data yet to make a definitive statement is if you've had Covid-19 whether or not it will give you immunity to the next mutated version of it.



That is correct.  All viruses mutate.  Some do so very rapidly to the extent that immunologically speaking the virus is “mostly new” every season (if its a seasonal virus).  Some do so slowly and effectively the virus doesn’t change significantly over a long time, like a human lifespan.

So far they are seeing a low mutation rate in this particular version of the coronavirus (technically SARS-CV-2) which means long lasting immunity from either a vaccine or infection.

But it’s too early to know for sure.  If it turns out to have a high mutation rate like the flu virus, that’s going to be a big problemo.


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> According to WHO: "Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence."
> 
> 
> https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
> ...



There is a difference between a true airborne infection- which lives in the air and you can’t get without close contact.  Vs a droplet-spread infection which is still primarily spread via area but requires close contact.  You can also get a droplet-spread infection by touching droplets that have recently landed on a surface and then touching your face.

But absolutely 100% don’t doubt what I’m saying because I know what I’m talking about:  this coronavirus is PREDOMINATELY spread via the air.


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> There is a difference between a true airborne infection- which lives in the air and you can’t get without close contact.  Vs a droplet-spread infection which is still primarily spread via area but requires close contact.  You can also get a droplet-spread infection by touching droplets that have recently landed on a surface and then touching your face.
> 
> But absolutely 100% don’t doubt what I’m saying because I know what I’m talking about:  this coronavirus is PREDOMINATELY spread via the air.



Just out of curiosity, how do you know that this coronavirus is predominately spread via air? It is hard to accept if the experts are saying something different.


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Just out of curiosity, how do you know that this coronavirus is predominately spread via air? It is hard to accept if the experts are saying something different.



The experts are not saying something different.

You are just misunderstanding what the experts are saying.

There is an airborne infection like tuberculosis.  This coronavirus is not an airborne infection.  

But airborne infections are not the only infections spread via the air.  Some infections like this coronavirus are spread via respiratory droplets and the primary means of coming into contact with respiratory droplets is via contacting them in the air.  It’s the reason you’re told not to come within six feet of other people vs being told not to touch them.

Yes you should wash your hands because that’s a means of avoiding the virus after the respiratory droplets land on something you might touch.

But you should also stay 6 ft away from people because you don’t want the respiratory droplets in the air surrounding that person to land on your mucus membranes (nose, mouth) and cause you to become infected.

Any “expert” that says this infection can solely be avoided by hand washing should be disregarded because they don’t know what they’re talking about.


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> The experts are not saying something different.
> 
> You are just misunderstanding what the experts are saying.
> 
> ...



Okay that makes sense. But saying you can get this from the air might be misleading since it is not an airborne infection. I understand that you can get respiratory droplets from being too close to someone. That is very different than saying you can get it from the air.

You should watch the video by the doctor and see if you think he is misleading the public. It has gone viral and has over 4 million views. Click on "watch on Vimeo" and it will play.


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Okay that makes sense. But saying you can get this from the air might be misleading since it is not an airborne infection. I understand that you can get respiratory droplets from being too close to someone. That is very different than saying you can get it from the air.
> 
> You should watch the video by the doctor and see if you think he is misleading the public. It has gone viral and has over 4 million views. Click on "watch on Vimeo" and it will play.



No its not misleading.  Respiratory droplets are in the air.  You can't see them.  The only difference is in how close you must need to be to the infected person for the air to be dangerous to you.

True airborne infection: not close
Respiratory droplet infection: close

Either way IT IS THE AIR.  It is NOT "very different from getting it from the air."  Its the exact same thing as getting it from the air. Really really really it is. 

But I am done with this conversation for now.  I'm going to get some fresh air.


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> No its not misleading.  Respiratory droplets are in the air.  You can't see them.  The only difference is in how close you must need to be to the infected person for the air to be dangerous to you.
> 
> True airborne infection: not close
> Respiratory droplet infection: close
> ...



Sorry for asking but I do appreciate your detailed response. It has taught me something new. When I heard that you can get the virus from the air, I thought that meant it can live in the air for a certain amount of time and we could get it without a person present. That is why I said saying you can get it from the air seems different to me than saying you can get respiratory droplets that are in the air when you are close to a person. If it can actually live in the air for 3 hours, as the New England Journal study is saying, then it is a much more scary disease and I would assume it is more easily transmittable. I ask these questions because I am not a medical doctor or a scientist so I want to more fully understand how it is transmitted. It seems like the details matter.


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## bluehende (Apr 2, 2020)

@heathpack 


Today I saw a general media report that the academy of sciences has issued a statement that a study is coming out that  addresses this.  I will not elaborate here as I cannot verify that a statement has been made.  Since I cannot confirm this I am highly suspect but my radar went up when hearing the supposed source.

edit to say
The more I look the more I think BS


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## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> "Under control" is not zero new cases, just as having the annual flu under control does not mean we don't have any cases or deaths.  I believe under control is when we are no longer at risk of overwhelming our medical capacities.  We are going to have many more cases and deaths -- that is a given.  It's all a balancing act and not an all or nothing (i.e. ZERO new cases).  Do you think otherwise?
> 
> Kurt


just watch Dr Fauci's facial reaction when a reporter asked if they can relax the containment measures in the summer. He thinks the number of new cases has to be zero "for a while"


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

Lives are more important than jobs. But here is today's news in the NY Times. Call me "Chicken Little."

----------

*In just two weeks, 10 million jobs have vanished, shaking the foundations of the global economy. *

When the first cases of the coronavirus were reported in the United States just over a month ago, President Trump mostly dismissed the looming threat, Wall Street chugged ever upward and people set about their business with scant recognition of the calamity that lay ahead.
On Thursday, the stunning scope of the economic disaster became clearer as the Labor Department reported the loss of 10 million jobs in just two weeks. Wall Street has seemingly imploded, and the global economy has shuddered as the fallout of the pandemic reaches into every country.

Hopes for a dramatic but brief downturn followed by a quick recovery have faded, and in their place are fears that the world may be on the cusp of an economic shock unseen since the Great Depression.
The speed and scale of the job losses is without precedent. Until last month, the worst week for unemployment filings was 695,000 in 1982.

Despite the news that 6.6 million people had filed for unemployment benefits last week, the S&P 500 rose after Mr. Trump said he expected Russia and Saudi Arabia to announce oil production cuts, lifting energy stocks. Oil prices had been hammered as the pandemic all but eliminated travel and demand for energy, and a price war between Saudi and Russia had intensified the decline.

By shuttering businesses and forcing vast layoffs, the virus outbreak has in two weeks wiped out more jobs than the worst months of the 2008 financial crisis.

The impact has been global.
Almost one million Britons have applied for welfare payments in the space of two weeks. Austria has its highest unemployment rate since the end of World War II. Millions of French workers have applied for some form of subsidy even as the government embarks on an ambitious plan to keep businesses from going under.
The unemployment rate in Norway jumped to 10.4 percent from 2.3 percent at the beginning of March, and more than 800,000 Spanish workers lost their jobs in March, the highest monthly drop in modern history.


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

From the Wall Street Journal:
*Record 6.6 Million Americans Sought Unemployment Benefits Last Week *
*Coronavirus-related layoffs trigger record-setting surge in jobless-insurance claims*

A record 6.6 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week as the new coronavirus struck the U.S. economy and sent a recently booming labor market into free fall.
The large number of claims was double the 3.3 million who sought benefits two weeks ago as the U.S. shut down parts of the economy in an effort to contain the virus. Jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, provide temporary financial assistance for workers who lose their jobs.

About 6% of the U.S. labor force has filed for jobless benefits in the last two weeks, up from 0.3% at the end of February, showing the toll from the coronavirus is gripping an ever-larger share of the U.S. economy. States indicated people from an array of industries—including restaurants, retail, trade and construction—sought unemployment benefits last week.

*“The speed and magnitude of the labor market’s decline is unprecedented,” said Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG LLP. Ms. Hunter said she expected that millions more claims will be filed in the coming weeks and projects 20 million jobs will be lost. “We didn’t see this in the global financial crisis. We didn’t see this in the Great Depression. There’s been a total decimation of consumption.”*

There are several reasons why unemployment claims are likely to remain high in the coming weeks. For one, the federal rescue package signed into law last week increases the pool of workers who can tap benefits by making independent contractors and self-employed individuals eligible. Further, states have continued to tighten lockdown measures, driving more consumers to stay at home and more businesses to close their doors or limit operations.

Some Americans across the U.S. have been unable to successfully apply for unemployment insurance because an unprecedented level of claims is overwhelming state labor department websites and jamming up phone lines.
At a news conference Tuesday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, said the hard-hit state’s site to apply for unemployment benefits was crashing due to unusually high volume. “I apologize for the pain—it must be infuriating to deal with,” he said.
Still, initial claims were dramatically higher in many states last week than two weeks ago, a sign that some states are making progress in processing a deluge of applications.

In California, about 880,000 claims were filed in the week ended March 28. That was up from approximately 190,000 claims in the previous week and the greatest number filed among all states last week. Pennsylvania and New York saw the second and third highest number of claims, respectively. 
The record-setting jobless claims filed the last two weeks are unlikely to materialize in Friday’s March jobs report. The monthly unemployment report offers a more comprehensive view of the U.S. labor market, but the timing of the surveys for that data preceded the virus’s widespread impact on the economy.

A survey of households that determines the unemployment rate asked Americans if they reported to work during the week of March 8-14. Many coronavirus-related shutdowns occurred the following week, meaning the report likely will miss mass layoffs announced by restaurants, retailers, manufacturers and others because they occurred in the second half of March. 

Similarly, a survey of employers, which determines payroll figures, asks for the head count during the pay period including March 12. If a worker was paid for any portion of that period, they were on a payroll.
Renee Munholand, a theater worker who helps hang lights and audio equipment for events in Seattle, successfully filed for unemployment after the city’s concerts and corporate events ground to a halt. She received her first two unemployment checks, which totaled about $1,200, on March 24.
The money is helping, she said, enabling her to make minimum payments on credit cards, buy food and make rent. She said she is keeping her heat turned down to trim costs.
“Depending on how long this goes, it could eventually start to be crippling,” she said.

Layoffs have been particularly widespread among small businesses. Such firms operate on lower cash reserves and quickly resorted to layoffs, according to researchers at the University of North Carolina’s Kenan-Flagler Business School. They estimated that up to 6.6 million small-business employees were immediately laid off when state governments in March began mandating businesses close to contain the virus’s spread.

Employees at small businesses tend to be lower-skill workers who suffer most from layoffs, said Paige Ouimet, a finance professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s business school.
“It’s sort of a double whammy that we’re expecting the biggest layoffs to occur for the type of worker it’s going to be most painful for,” she said.
Carol Schroeder, co-owner of Orange Tree Imports, a housewares shop in Madison, Wis., laid off 20 employees last week when the store closed to comply with state orders. Among those dismissed were workers she employed for three decades.

“I told them to go apply for unemployment insurance,” she said. “We’ve paid into it for 45 years, now’s the time to use it.” She plans to seek federal loans so she can pay workers’ health insurance and said she is confident they will return when her business reopens.
The roughly $2 trillion stimulus package passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump last week is intended to help ease some of the financial pain many laid-off Americans are experiencing.
Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia earlier this week said funds to increase unemployment payments by $600 a week—more than double the existing maximum in some states—will be distributed to states this week, but he didn’t know when states would make such payments to individuals.

States say they are moving as quickly as possible to handle the sharp rise in demand for unemployment benefits. New York, Kentucky and Michigan are instructing unemployment-insurance applicants to stagger filings by day based on their last names. Many state labor departments also are reallocating or adding staff.
“The level of need for unemployment benefits right now is far beyond anything we’ve ever seen in such a short time,” said Gail Krumenauer, communications director at Oregon’s labor department.

Not all Americans who have been laid off or seen their hours reduced are eligible to receive unemployment benefits.
Kate Cavataio, 23 years old, lost her job as a physical-therapist technician in mid-March as patients started calling off scheduled therapy visits due to the coronavirus. Ms. Cavataio applied for unemployment benefits with the state of Michigan, but learned she wouldn’t be eligible because she didn’t make enough money last year.
“I was bummed, but it was just something I had to accept,” Ms. Cavataio said.
Without income from her physical-therapy work, she said, she won’t be able to apply to as many graduate schools as she had hoped.
“That greatly decreases my chances of getting in, and getting in is my dream,” she said.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

Lives are more important than mental health but the coronavirus is taking a huge toll on mental health. From the Washington Post:

———————-

Health

*Coronavirus is harming the mental health of tens of millions of people in U.S., new poll finds*

Nearly half the people in the United States feel the coronavirus crisis is harming their mental health, according to a survey published Thursday that demonstrates how the covid-19 pandemic has escalated into a nationwide psychological trauma.

The tracking poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, conducted March 25 to 30, found that 45 percent of adults say the pandemic has affected their mental health, and 19 percent say it has had a “major impact.” The rates are slightly higher among women, Hispanic adults and black adults, the survey found.

The poll makes one thing clear: If you’re scared, anxious, depressed, struggling to sleep through the night, or just on edge, you’re not alone.

“It’s a huge number,” Kathy HoganBruen, a Washington clinical psychologist specializing in anxiety disorders, said in response to the poll results. But she added, “It’s not surprising given all the other huge numbers surrounding the pandemic in terms of joblessness, and social distancing, which can equal social isolation. And people dying. People getting sick. . . . All of these big numbers are going to have an outsized impact on our mental health collectively.”

Mental health experts say it’s normal for people to be anxious and worried amid a highly disruptive health emergency that is shot through with uncertainties.

“Given the circumstances, feeling anxious is part of a normal response to what’s going on,” said Joshua Gordon, director of the National Institute of Mental Health, after reviewing the poll numbers Thursday.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-is-harming-the-mental-health-of-tens-of-millions-of-people-in-us-new-poll-finds/2020/04/02/565e6744-74ee-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

Here is a double whammy. Health care workers are getting laid off! Not so good during a virus. Good luck getting a doctor‘s appointment. Pray you do not need health care except if you have the virus!

————————

*Thousands of US medical workers furloughed, laid off as routine patient visits drop during coronavirus pandemic*

Orr joins thousands of health care workers across the nation who have been laid off, furloughed or are working reduced hours as their services are deemed nonessential and patients skip routine visits during an outbreak of COVID-19 cases, based on reporting from advocacy groups and from news stories from across the nation. 

As routine patient visits decline amid stay-at-home orders, thousands of health care professionals lack work

How many health care workers are included in the record 3.28 million Americans that filed for initial unemployment benefits last week is unknown. Specific data from the U.S. Department of Labor will be released when it reports its March unemployment numbers Friday.

*Thousands of health care workers affected*
The workers range from dentists and general surgeons to medical assistants and nurses, from allergists and dermatologists to primary care physicians and pediatricians.

By June, an estimated 60,000 family practices will close or significantly scale back, and 800,000 of their employees will be laid off, furloughed or have their hours reduced as they see a decline in business during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a HealthLandscape and American Academy of Family Physicians report released Thursday.........









						Thousands of US medical workers furloughed, laid off as routine patient visits drop during coronavirus pandemic
					

Coronavirus has led to overwhelming demand at some health care facilities. For others, it has brought business to a screeching halt.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Here is a double whammy. Health care workers are getting laid off! Not so good during a virus. Good luck getting a doctor‘s appointment. Pray you do not need health care except if you have the virus!
> 
> ————————
> 
> ...


It does not surprise me at all. As a matter of fact, I have been very consistent on this, the health of many more people will suffer from the containment (through a depreciation of the medical act) than from the virus and many more lives will be affected, possibly lost.  I just do not understand how people did not see it this way and still do not see it today.


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## x3 skier (Apr 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Lives are more important than mental health but the coronavirus is taking a huge toll on mental health. From the Washington Post:
> 
> ———————-
> 
> ...



A poll that asked individuals  if the Pandemic harmed your mental health is something I find ridiculous in the extreme. If 45% of the respondents say yes, that implies over 100 Million people have some mental health issue. I have zero doubt if they individuals were asked if they feel anxious about the Pandemic, the result would have been close to 90% yes. 

The two sentences at the end is the only things that I think is worth anything in the article. Basically, it’s completely normal to feel anxiety in this situation, not “harming the mental health”. What a ludicrous poll to conduct and then report on.

Cheers


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> It does not surprise me at all. As a matter of fact, I have been very consistent on this, the health of many more people will suffer from the containment (through a depreciation of the medical act) than from the virus. I just do not understand how people did not see it this way and still do not see it today.



Hi Danny,

I think people see it but they are prioritizing Covid-19 over other health care issues since it is reported to be more deadly.

On the bright side, I have a friend with prostate cancer. They were going to delay his surgery until May. Then they discovered the hospitals in the SF Bay Area are not as full so they called him to do the surgery next week. So if the hospitals do not get overwhelmed, perhaps critical surgeries can continue.


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## x3 skier (Apr 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Here is a double whammy. Health care workers are getting laid off! Not so good during a virus. Good luck getting a doctor‘s appointment. Pray you do not need health care except if you have the virus!
> 
> ————————
> 
> ...



Called for a Dr appointment last week and got one the next day.

Cheers


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## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Called for a Dr appointment last week and got one the next day.
> 
> Cheers


That was last week. Do you think the furloughs in the health care system have stopped today or they are going to continue?


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> A poll that asked individuals  if the Pandemic harmed your mental health is something I find ridiculous in the extreme. If 45% of the respondents say yes, that implies over 100 Million people have some mental health issue. I have zero doubt if they individuals were asked if they feel anxious about the Pandemic, the result would have been close to 90% yes.
> 
> The two sentences at the end is the only things that I think is worth anything in the article. Basically, it’s completely normal to feel anxiety in this situation, not “harming the mental health”. What a ludicrous poll to conduct and then report on.
> 
> Cheers



I would not make fun of this or poo poo it. Many people with OCD, depression, anxiety disorders and other serious mental health disorders are getting worse right now. Some are relapsing and others who never had a serious mental health disorder are getting triggered by this and having their first episodes. You can't get in person therapy right now as almost all mental health professionals are on stay at home orders. You can only get therapy by video right now. Many people do not like video therapy so they are canceling appointments while others are desperate right now and willing to do any kind of therapy.

BTW, the percentage of people who have had a mental health disorder at any time in their life is quite high so it does not surprise me that almost half of the respondents said yes. The link below has some stats on percentage with anxiety or depression in any given year. Lifetime incidence is much higher, probably double or triple. I think it does approach half of the US population but I would need to verify that. I am just remembering off the top of my head.

Then there are those who should get help but refuse and say there is nothing wrong with them - everyone else is the problem - or they are embarrassed by the stigma. I call them the "crazy" people because they do not know they have a problem but everyone around them does! LOL (Just a little humor)





__





						Facts & Statistics | Anxiety and Depression Association of America, ADAA
					

Anxiety and Depression




					adaa.org


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## x3 skier (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> That was last week. Do you think the furloughs in the health care system have stopped today or they are going to continue?



I called yesterday to report the results of the visit and treatment to the Facility and was in contact in a minute.

No idea but it appeared to be business as usual (Number of cars in the parking lot) at the Facility when I drove by today.

Cheers


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## x3 skier (Apr 2, 2020)

Duplicate


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Called for a Dr appointment last week and got one the next day.
> 
> Cheers



You were lucky! Count your blessings. A Tugger has a thread going that she can't get in to see a doctor. Plumbers are not working either. Another Tugger had a thread on that. She had to call 10 or 11 plumbers before one came out. Hope you do not have an emergency during this time. It is hit or miss as to whether you can get help.


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## x3 skier (Apr 2, 2020)

Duplicate


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## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> She also said the Kings college model had changed so excuse me if I take her opinion with a grain of salt.  And we will not go into other false claims that have come from that podium.  I would love to see long lasting immunity from a single exposure, but that is not known unless you have another source for that number I can check.


I beg your pardon? The model went from estimating 500,000 deaths to 20,000 in the UK and you say she was not right to say the model changed?


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## x3 skier (Apr 2, 2020)

Sorry for the duplicate entries,  I can’t seem to edit them out.


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## bluehende (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I beg your pardon? The model went from estimating 500,000 deaths to 20,000 in the UK and you say she was not right to say the model changed?


  I will try again.  The model was rerun and the numbers came out the same.  The idiot at the podium misquoted the maximal mitigation number from one run with the no mitigation number from the first run.  Neither numbers  changed  if you look I posted this with the exact quote from the second study.  She either lied or is incompetent.  This really bothered me because I become very optimistic and went to verify the statement and was very let down.  Please stop replying by I heard or they said.  You are distributing false information.  

Your pardon is begged.


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## x3 skier (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I beg your pardon? The model went from estimating 500,000 deaths to 20,000 in the UK and you say she was not right to say the model changed?



The model didn’t change, the inputs and assumptions changed. Thus the result changed. One input one answer, different input different answer. No idea what was actually said. 

Cgeers


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## x3 skier (Apr 2, 2020)

Duplicate


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## Rjbeach2003 (Apr 2, 2020)

People look at statistics and often pick out what support their previous position.  Changing a deeply held position is like doing a Uie in an oil tanker.  It takes a long time.  A friend on FB posted that on that particular date 110,000 people had survived the virus and were virus free.  He wanted to know why the "media" doesn't report the good news.  So I thought I would check. I went to this website, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries  to see what the numbers are.  It is updated daily.
As of today Out of 193,938 closed cases 80% 193,938 recovered.  Great news for them, but 20%, 47,192 closed because of death.  Currently there are 694,008 active cases of with 95% are rated mild and only 5% are rated serious.  What we don't know today, is how many more cases will be discovered tomorrow, and how many of the 95% will be moved to Serious.
Tomorrow there will be over 1,000,000 cases reported.  We don't know how many are unknown because of lack of testing. 

(political comments removed)

Non of us are happy staying home, but I'd rather do that than have the curve grow more than it already has.  Good luck to everyone.  That's off my chest.


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> @heathpack
> 
> 
> Today I saw a general media report that the academy of sciences has issued a statement that a study is coming out that  addresses this.  I will not elaborate here as I cannot verify that a statement has been made.  Since I cannot confirm this I am highly suspect but my radar went up when hearing the supposed source.
> ...



@bluehende, I think this report is almost certainly correct to the extent that I’m surprised it needed saying.

We’ve known for weeks that this infection is seen in people who have no known contact with a sick person.  Which means well people who are not coughing and sneezing are spreading the disease.  This is all just facts.

The implication of these facts is that the virus is spread by infected (not necessarily ill) people breathing it out, not necessarily by coughing it out or sneezing it out as was originally thought.  But even a little knowledge of infectious disease and how diseases spread would lead one to conclude very quickly once it is known that infection is commonly acquired without sick-person contact that the infection is being spread via regular breathing. 

This is part of why this virus so dangerous and easily spread.  You can’t just avoid sick people to avoid infection.  You have to avoid people entirely.  The good news is that if your life allows for avoiding people outside your household entirely, you can pretty much avoid the infection.  So: stay home with your wife for now and do nothing.  Have zero contact with anyone who is in contact with other people, because essentially you are in contact with anyone that person has been in contact with.  I envy retired people.  I personally cannot go to zero contact because I have an ethical obligation to continue working as long as I am legally allowed to do so.


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## TravelTime (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> @bluehende, I think this report is almost certainly correct to the extent that I’m surprised it needed saying.
> 
> We’ve known for weeks that this infection is seen in people who have no known contact with a sick person.  Which means well people who are not coughing and sneezing are spreading the disease.  This is all just facts.
> 
> ...



I would think veterinarians could postpone routine care and just handle emergencies and critical care, like Doctors are doing now. Or do video visits when possible. Our vet is still open but only to critical care and essential services. And they have procedures in place so no one comes into the office. We washed our dogs ourselves last week because grooming salons are closed. They got a bad haircut from me!


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## heathpack (Apr 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I would think veterinarians could postpone routine care and just handle emergencies and critical care, like Doctors are doing now. Or do video visits when possible. Our vet is still open but only to critical care and essential services. And they have procedures in place so no one comes into the office. We washed our dogs ourselves last week because grooming salons are closed. They got a bad haircut from me!


 

That is what we are doing.  However my specialty is mostly urgent and emergent things so I am still working and plan to as long as I’m able.  We defer everything we can but I still am moderately busy.  Strokes, brain tumors, paralysis, encephalitis and life threatening seizures don’t stop happening just because there’s a pandemic going on.

We could get ordered shut by the state of California to conserve medical resources and if that happened, we’d comply.  We also will get temporarily shut down if we get one human case of coronavirus amongst our staff.  Our ethics dictate that human health is prioritized over animal health.  But until that day comes, we are open treating all the urgent and emergent stuff we always treat.

Lol but thanks for the tips.  None of what you mentioned had occurred to us!


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## WVBaker (Apr 2, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> People look at statistics and often pick out what support their previous position.  Changing a deeply held position is like doing a Uie in an oil tanker.  It takes a long time.  A friend on FB posted that on that particular date 110,000 people had survived the virus and were virus free.  He wanted to know why the "media" doesn't report the good news.  So I thought I would check. I went to this website, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries  to see what the numbers are.  It is updated daily.
> As of today Out of 193,938 closed cases 80% 193,938 recovered.  Great news for them, but 20%, 47,192 closed because of death.  Currently there are 694,008 active cases of with 95% are rated mild and only 5% are rated serious.  What we don't know today, is how many more cases will be discovered tomorrow, and how many of the 95% will be moved to Serious.
> Tomorrow there will be over 1,000,000 cases reported.  We don't know how many are unknown because of lack of testing.
> 
> ...


Perhaps a review of the rules while you're unhappy at home.


----------



## Panina (Apr 2, 2020)

Nothing is fact right now except the number of confirmed cases,  the number of deaths, there is no cure and no vaccine.  Everything else are opinions based on models,  preliminary drug results, that might be right or wrong.  When all the damage is done then we will know what is but we still will not know if some scenarios were different what would have been.


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## VacationForever (Apr 2, 2020)

heathpack said:


> This is part of why this virus so dangerous and easily spread.  You can’t just avoid sick people to avoid infection.  You have to avoid people entirely.  The good news is that if your life allows for avoiding people outside your household entirely, you can pretty much avoid the infection.  So: stay home with your wife for now and do nothing.  Have zero contact with anyone who is in contact with other people, because essentially you are in contact with anyone that person has been in contact with.  I envy retired people.  I personally cannot go to zero contact because I have an ethical obligation to continue working as long as I am legally allowed to do so.



We are retired and the biggest risk is the packages that get delivered to our doorstep.  We wear gloves, take in the boxes and spray with the entire external area with Lysol sanitizer.  If the box does not contain perishables, we let it sit by the front door for another 24 hours before opening it up and then sanitize the contents.  If it holds perishables, we wait for 2 hours before opening up the box and sanitizing the contents.


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## geekette (Apr 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> That was last week. Do you think the furloughs in the health care system have stopped today or they are going to continue?


I got email today from my near hospital where all my doctors are, and I have been assured that my needs will be covered.  I cancelled my appts vs their cancelling them.  

I think it greatly depends on which workers where.  Where I live, they have put the call out for Any healthcare workers anywhere of any discipline, will waive or push through state licensing.  

We have a lot of small towns without hospitals, so the areas with hospitals are also building out extra capacity and need workers.   Any furloughed healthcare worker can be working tomorrow in NYC, and flown to the next place.  I do like that Delta will fly them around, free.


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## geekette (Apr 2, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Sorry for the duplicate entries,  I can’t seem to edit them out.


You seem to have caught a case of Ditto.


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## Talent312 (Apr 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> You seem to have caught a case of Ditto.



Is there a vaccine for that?
.


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## geekette (Apr 2, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> Is there a vaccine for that?
> .


I hope so, because untreated, it turns into Echo.


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## DannyTS (Apr 2, 2020)

A very interesting article by Sir David John Spiegelhalter OBE FRS,  a renown British statistician and  Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge

*"How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?"*









						How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?
					

An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the…




					medium.com


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## WinniWoman (Apr 2, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> We are retired and the biggest risk is the packages that get delivered to our doorstep.  We wear gloves, take in the boxes and spray with the entire external area with Lysol sanitizer.  If the box does not contain perishables, we let it sit by the front door for another 24 hours before opening it up and then sanitize the contents.  If it holds perishables, we wait for 2 hours before opening up the box and sanitizing the contents.




We don't  do any of that. Just wash our hands after we open everything. Where is everyone getting Lysol spray and sanitizer? I cannot get anything.


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## VacationForever (Apr 2, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> We don't  do any of that. Just wash our hands after we open everything. Where is everyone getting Lysol spray and sanitizer? I cannot get anything.


Back in early February I went to Home Depot looking for N95 masks but found none.  On my way out they had mountains of different types of Lysol sanitizing aerosol cans.  I bought 2 cans.  I just use them freely on packages that are delivered.

We also have lots of Clorox wipes, in to-go packet size and canisters, and Hydrogen Peroxide wipes, from days of cleaning up cat litter box area,  wiping down cabins on cruises, airplane seats and timeshare villas.  We have some individual Purell packets and 2 8-oz bottles of Purell and a very large bottle of Purell at our entry hallway.  We have always been germaphobes and now we are just germaphobes on steroids.


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## CO skier (Apr 2, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Where is everyone getting Lysol spray and sanitizer? I cannot get anything.


Do you have any bleach in the laundry room?  1 teaspoon in a cup of water makes a killer sanitizer.

I found a 750 ml bottle of Everclear at a small liquor store off the beaten path.  3/4 cup Everclear plus 1/4 cup water applied to paper towels is probably a better sanitizer for coronavirus than Lysol wipes.

I was in Home Depot a week ago.  Lots of acetone on the shelf in the paint section, because acetone has not been hyped by the media like isopropyl alcohol, Everclear, or Lysol.  3/4 cup acetone plus 1/4 cup water is a killer solution for coronavirus.  (Do not wipe painted surfaces with this solution).


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## Panina (Apr 2, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> We don't  do any of that. Just wash our hands after we open everything. Where is everyone getting Lysol spray and sanitizer? I cannot get anything.


Lysol is impossible to get.  I can’t find it anywhere.  Hand sanitizer occasionally pops up on Sams Clubs website.  

This evening I noticed Amazon is no longer selling sanitizer or gloves to customers.  They are only available to health institutions.


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## x3 skier (Apr 3, 2020)

I’m not believing anything in this thread until Detective Adrian Monk posts his thoughts  





For those of you unfamiliar, a fictional Private Detective who had an extreme case of OCD that aired on Cable TV. A good show to binge watch in these times.

Cheers


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 3, 2020)

How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?
					

An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the…




					medium.com
				




*How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?*



David Spiegelhalter
Follow
Mar 21 · 4 min read


An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the ‘normal’ risks faced by people, particularly the elderly and those with chronic health problems who are the main victims of COVID. To provide some background, I’ve had a look at how much ‘normal’ risk COVID seems to represent.
It’s always useful to remember that we’re all going to die sometime, and the rate at which we do so is faithfully recorded in the life tables provided by the Office For National Statistics.
These provide annual ‘hazards’ — that is the proportion of people of each year of age, who do not reach their next birthday. These are plotted below on a logarithmic scale, showing an early peak due to congenital diseases and birth trauma, then a minimum around age 9 or 10 (nobody in the history of humanity has been as safe as a contemporary primary school child), and then a steady increase which is remarkably linear, apart from a sad bump in late teens and early 20’s, whose cause is all too clear. This linearity on a logarithmic scale corresponds to exponential increase— the proportion of people dying each year increases at about 9%, regardless of age. So average risk of death doubles in 8 years.





Annual risk of death (hazard) for England and Wales, 2016–2018, from Office for National Statistics.
The recent report by researchers from Imperial College London provided estimates of the age-specific risks of dying following infection with coronavirus — these are shown in the Table below.





Mortality rates following Covid-19 infection for different age groups, estimated by researchers at Imperial College London
These can be superimposed on the background mortality to produce the fgure below— they are plotted at year 7 of the decade as this more accurately represents the age at which this risk, averaged over the whole decade, pertains. The agreement is remarkable, showing the Covid risk follows a similar pattern as the background risk.





The mortality risk with COVID-19 superimposed on background annual risk. (The COVID-19 risks have been plotted at the 7th year of the decade, as that more accurately represents the specific age at which the decade-average pertains).
The Table below compares the risk following infection with the background hazard later in the relevant decade (the 7th year). Their ratio, the relative risk, ranges around 0.5 to 2.





Comparson of COVID-19 risk with background mortality from life-tables. The relative risk is the ratio of the Covid-19 risk to background. When multiplied by 12, it provides the equivalent risk in terms of months of ‘normal life’.
This suggests that COVID-19 very roughly contributes a year’s worth of risk. There is a simple reality check on this figure. Every year around 600,000 people die in the UK. The Imperial College team estimates that if the virus went completely unchallenged, around 80% of people would be infected and there would be around 510,000 deaths.
So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.
It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.
Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.
_Added 26th March_
In response to requests, I have redrawn the plot on a linear scale.





The comparison between Covid-19 mortality (from Imperial group) and ‘normal’ annual mortality, plotted on a linear scale. This more clearly shows the dramatic increase with age, and the small excess risk for people in their 60s and 70s.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 3, 2020)

These numbers and the affected industries will change considerably in the next few weeks. Probably those at the bottom today will still lag for a couple of months, the government more than that. 









						Here are the industries suffering the biggest job losses in an initial look at coronavirus impact
					

CNBC studied the net change in employment by industry for March based on data from the Labor Department.




					www.cnbc.com


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## bluehende (Apr 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?
> 
> 
> An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the…
> ...




This is what I have been asking for.  Something to sink my teeth into.  

Questions

The link to the kings college model does not link to the actual study used.  Is this the unmitigated or the mitigated run?

Is there a link to the actual study quoted above.  This seems to be  only a part of the paper and the whole paper is needed for context.  In particular methods and conclusion parts are ommitted.

Observations

The kings college model cannot model if stress on the healthcare system collapsed the system.

I am curious why the one graph is put on a logarithmic scale and the other is linear.  I can get any graph to show little results by setting the axis different.

By using the term a years worth of risk in a couple weeks does not mean you are having that years risk changed.  If the health care systems fails your risk of death this year will be higher even outside of the covid risk

Discussion

I think the basic observation that the risk from Covid 19 being about the same as all other causes combined is true.  My guess is this would be consistent with unmitigated numbers used.  This data is very consistent with the estimate of 2.2 million additional deaths due to covid19 without taking health care limitations into account.  Using again the kings college model that number can be reduced by 90%.

I guess we now agree on the cost in lives and it is the millions in the us.  Now we can turn to the cost side in dollars.  I still maintain that most if not all of the damage to the economy is from the virus and not the shutdowns.

I do think it is a losing argument that an older persons life is worth less than a younger persons.  When push comes to shove the medical profession will make that decision, but never on economic terms.


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## bluehende (Apr 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> View attachment 18532
> 
> These numbers and the affected industries will change considerably in the next few weeks. Probably those at the bottom today will still lag for a couple of months, the government more than that.
> 
> ...




The overwhelming loss was in leisure and hospitality.  The control can obviously not be done but I theorize travel would be at a standstill no matter what the government response.  Unless you theorize that the millions of deaths in the US would not register on the nations psyche.  As much as the media has drawn maybe too much attention to the pandemic the reporting on the complete collapse of our medical system from an unseen virus could have been worse.


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## DannyTS (Apr 3, 2020)

bluehende said:


> This is what I have been asking for.  Something to sink my teeth into.
> 
> Questions
> 
> ...


unfortunately there is very little information about how rigorous is establishing the cause of death. I still fear that many who  die and accidentally test positive may be counted as Corona victims. I will ask the question another way: has anyone who tested positive declared dead for any other reasons? I do not know the answer to that.
I also have to note that certain health care facilities may have an incentive to mix the two together since their budgets and PPE may depend on that.

Concerning the article and your questions, you will have to contact the author directly. Have you asked the universities that produced the models to provide all the algorithms and their assumptions?


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## bluehende (Apr 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> unfortunately there is very little information about how rigorous is establishing the cause of death. I still fear that many who  die and accidentally test positive may be counted as Corona victims. I will ask the question another way: has anyone who tested positive declared dead for any other reasons? I do not know the answer to that.
> I also have to note that certain health care facilities may have an incentive to mix the two together since their budgets and PPE may depend on that.
> 
> Concerning the article and your questions, you will have to contact the author directly. Have you asked the universities that produced the models to provide all the algorithms and assumptions?


Unfortunately that will never be known.  There is a very specific way you die from this so I think the numbers will be close.  Unfortunately with a large enough sampling modeling is the best way.  Normalizing the total death rate to the normal death rate will almost certainly be the way numbers will be reported in the future.  I do not believe there is a conspiracy to elevate the death total and think implying that with no data is irresponsible at best.   I again vigorously object to you implying nefarious motives to people risking their lives to protect us without any evidence.  There are way too many people establishing cause of death for a huge conspiracy to take place.  

I did not ask for the algorithm.  I would like to see the parameters, which is in the methods.  The parameters of their model are important.  Do you not agree.  We have already had a go around on that exact same problem.  Unfortunately free reprints of papers is a thing of the past.  If I only had my old chemserve account.


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## DannyTS (Apr 3, 2020)

bluehende said:


> The overwhelming loss was in leisure and hospitality.  The control can obviously not be done but I theorize travel would be at a standstill no matter what the government response.  Unless you theorize that the millions of deaths in the US would not register on the nations psyche.  As much as the media has drawn maybe too much attention to the pandemic the reporting on the complete collapse of our medical system from an unseen virus could have been worse.



Leasure and hospitality was hit first but the waves will be felt by all industries when people stay at home and spend virtually nothing.
You assume that the leisure and hospitality had to be decimated by fear but evidence shows that people were still travelling (albeit not everyone) until travel and customs restrictions were put in place. We should not have a static view of the unemployment numbers. They will change dramatically in the following weeks. There is always a lag but a 2 trillion dollar hole (actually a multiple of that) will be shared by everyone eventually. This is just the first punch in the stomach, the one to the head comes after. Unless of course you think you can solve the problem by printing money indefinitely. Do I have to mention the role that the economic conditions had on the onset of WW2?

Those that reduce everything to "choosing life over death" are very innocent IMO  especially since there is no plan that I know of to stop this in the near future (weeks not months or over a year). I have seen no model to tell us how long this can last before the fabric of a modern society starts to tear.


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## "Roger" (Apr 3, 2020)

Just so that everyone is clear, "Leisure and hospitality" (an official category within the Department of Bureau of Labor Statistics) includes hotels, restaurants, concerts, movie theaters, spectator sports, museums, gambling facilities, art galleries, concerts , and probably a few other things. Obviously that covers a lot of workers, not just those involved with people who travel.

Moving on to opinion: The original declaration for my state (Wisconsin) was that restaurants could stay open, but had to restrict the number of patrons to fifty or half their normal capacity, whichever number was smaller. I personally favored that over the later complete closure except for take out. A lot of people still wouldn't go, but if the restaurants kept people far enough apart, I thought that this was a good compromise given how many people are employed full time or part time in the restaurant industry. Maybe something like this could be the first step in easing up.


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## dayooper (Apr 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Leasure and hospitality was hit first but the waves will be felt by all industries when people stay at home and spend virtually nothing.
> You assume that the leisure and hospitality had to be decimated by fear but evidence shows that people were still travelling (albeit not everyone) until travel and customs restrictions were put in place. We should not have a static view of the unemployment numbers. They will change dramatically in the following weeks. There is always a lag but a 2 trillion dollar hole (actually a multiple of that) will be shared by everyone eventually. This is just the first punch in the stomach, the one to the head comes after. Unless of course you think you can solve the problem by printing money indefinitely. Do I have to mention the role that the economic conditions had on the onset of WW2?
> 
> Those that reduce everything to "choosing life over death" are very innocent IMO  especially since there is no plan that I know of to stop this in the near future (weeks not months or over a year).* I have seen no model to tell us how long this can last before the fabric of a modern society starts to tear.*



The bolded part of your response is what I'd like to talk about, here. We are in unprecedented times in modern history. We really have no precedent to follow, nothing to go on. The plans we have in place now are what we have to go by. They are not the same plans we started this off with, nor are they the same that we will end with. They are what we have now. As this crisis evolves, new knowledge will come forth, new techniques will be developed and new protocols will be written. It's how engineering a solution on the fly is done. When you hear Dr. Fauci talk about what he thinks and foresees, it's what he thinks with the current our current knowledge base. New research about Covid-19 is being done as we discuss this. This will ultimately change our thinking, therefore our actions and policies. Research isn't static, if changes and new knowledge is built on the existing knowledge base. With the world researching this disease, hopefully that knowledge will come faster.


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## DannyTS (Apr 3, 2020)

dayooper said:


> The bolded part of your response is what I'd like to talk about, here. We are in unprecedented times in modern history. We really have no precedent to follow, nothing to go on. The plans we have in place now are what we have to go by. They are not the same plans we started this off with, nor are they the same that we will end with. They are what we have now. As this crisis evolves, new knowledge will come forth, new techniques will be developed and new protocols will be written. It's how engineering a solution on the fly is done. When you hear Dr. Fauci talk about what he thinks and foresees, it's what he thinks with the current our current knowledge base. New research about Covid-19 is being done as we discuss this. This will ultimately change our thinking, therefore our actions and policies. Research isn't static, if changes and new knowledge is built on the existing knowledge base. With the world researching this disease, hopefully that knowledge will come faster.



I actually agree with everything you said and my hope is exactly that our knowledge and science will move ahead and find a solution to this yet:

1) We are at least 9-12 months before a vaccine will be on the market and longer until at least the vulnerable population will be vaccinated. Abbott is probably the most advanced and according to them they hope to have it at the beginning of next year and not later than at the end of 2021. 
2) I have not seen any decisive steps towards finding out if a large part of the population has not  already have the virus so more or less immune.
3) It is virtually impossible to lower the number to zero before the vaccine is on the market so we will either accept relaxing the measures at one point before that (and risk again the number of cases to go through the roof) or keep the same measures in place until next March. 
All I see is what is happening in countries that started before like US like SK where the virus is just not going away away and it is at the same level as prior to the peak. There is no evidence or believe that it will die off anytime soon in North America.








I would like to be wrong so please tell me I am.


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## TravelTime (Apr 3, 2020)

The best way to protect yourself from Covid-19 is to do what is in your control. I think the best way is to stay healthy, exercise, don't do drugs and drink excessively, do not smoke, get your weight into a healthy range and do whatever you can to reduce your risk factors like reduce blood pressure, diabetes, etc. The next best way is being really obsessive about hand hygiene. Next is staying 6' away from other people. I think the problem with stay at home as a primary strategy is that it is not sustainable over the long run. The disease is out there and we are likely to get it at some point. I understand that the main reason for SIP is to minimize that too many people get sick at the same time and overwhelm the health care system. That makes some sense but it does not really minimize long term risk of getting it. It just delays it.

I think being healthy is the best way because even if you get it, you are a lot less likely to die. I have read that a healthy older person is more likely to recover than an unhealthy younger person. Of course, there are people who die with no risk factors. I am not minimizing that. But there is a lot in our control to protect ourselves. That to me is a positive and inspiring message. That is why I personally am not scared for myself but I do worry about others in my friend and family circle who have existing health conditions, many of which are preventable through diet and exercise. I heard that in the USA, 60% of the population have a risk factor. We are an unhealthy nation and that puts us at high risk.

Regarding the point that the economic collapse is due to the virus and not the shut downs. Of course, with the way the media has scared us, no one wants to go out anymore. This will change our collective behaviors forever. Things were already slowing down before the SIP orders. I was ready to close my office before SIP because I did not want to take the risk of someone coming in with Covid-19 and getting everyone sick. Then I would have had to close my office anyway. I was actually relieved when the government issued SIP so I did not have to seem like I was over reacting. Just the week before our SIP order, my DH thought I was over reacting and we made certain financial decisions that I did not want to make because I was already fearful of the economic damage from the virus. But he downplayed the financial risks and we moved forward with some big mistakes. Now he is more worried than me. However, I do think the poor government response at the beginning could have prevented this from getting out of control. I think SIP was a last resort because the virus had gotten so out of control and people were so scared. There have been so many mixed messages about the science behind the virus that I do not know what to believe anymore so I am just sifting through it and making my best guesses. So I can agree that the virus caused the shut downs and shut downs caused the economic collapse and it is all a self perpetuating cycle now. It is like the chicken and the egg to me. 

I do think that there is an unrealistic fear of the virus that exceeds the actual health risk. Most people who get it do not show symptoms or have mild to moderate symptoms. It is not a death sentence. To me, that is where I see the over reaction. There is a mass hysteria about getting it. People are scared of other people. Even I look at people and I have suspicious thoughts like "maybe they have it" and "don't get too close or you will get it." Like I said earlier, there are many things you can do to minimize your risk even if you do go out in public. And #1 is stay healthy and minimize underlying health conditions so you will survive if you get it.


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## dayooper (Apr 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I actually agree with everything you said and my hope is exactly that our knowledge and science will move ahead and find a solution to this yet:
> 
> 1) We are at least 9-12 months before a vaccine will be on the market and longer until at least the vulnerable population will be vaccinated. Abbott is probably the most advanced and according to them they hope to have it at the beginning of next year and not later than at the end of 2021.
> 2) I have not seen any decisive steps towards finding out if a large part of the population has not  already have the virus so more or less immune.
> ...



You are wrong!

Seriously though. I am preparing for the worst but hoping for the best. At some point when things start to quiet down and the hospitals aren’t in risk of being overburdened, the measures will be relaxed. Do I have proof or evidence? No, but that’s what’s I’m going on. The graph you showed of SK, it spiked, dropped and is settling in lower than the spike. 

These measures were put in place because people ignored or even flaunted the social distancing requests. You have mentioned Sweden many times. They are actually following the request given by their government instead staying extra long at restaurants, parting on the beach, host Coronavirus parties or doing an Instagram Coronavirus licking challenge. They don’t need the forced stay in place directives. The Swedes are doing that with being forced to.


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## MrockStar (Apr 3, 2020)

bluehende said:


> This is what I have been asking for.  Something to sink my teeth into.
> 
> Questions
> 
> ...


It's easy to be critical of others work, where's your research, bar charts ect? Still waiting. :-\


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## DannyTS (Apr 3, 2020)

dayooper said:


> You are wrong!
> 
> The graph you showed of SK, it spiked, dropped and is settling in lower than the spike.


I left the "you are wrong!" part of your comment since it is the most optimistic thing I heard today lol

Concerning SK, it settled lower that the spike, but still at the level before the spike which means it can always restart. Only 10k out of 52 millions have had the virus in SK so plenty of material left  there for the beast. I do not know if you caught earlier comments, Dr Fauci said that he was going to recommend relaxing the measures only after the number of new cases will have been zero for a while. So basically not in the next year.


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## bluehende (Apr 3, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> It's easy to be critical of others work, where's your research, bar charts ect? Still waiting. :-\


Not critical....I agreed with it if you actually read my comment.   To make it easy for you here is what I wrote.

"I think the basic observation that the risk from Covid 19 being about the same as all other causes combined is true. "

I do have questions that could have been answered by a direct link instead of an edited copy and paste to understand the methods because  I DID AGREE WITH IT.  Having questions is not being critical.  And before you claim I was being critical of the person who posted it......He copy and pasted an article that in turn had copy and pasted out of the study without a link.  I asked because I thought he might have a link that I spent 15 minutes trying to find.

Of course you could link to anything that disagrees with me and the study posted.

If you read what I have posted before you will see I have linked to studies many times.  Nice of you to be critical of me being critical when I have in fact given you what you asked for.  I  will not link to those studies for the fourth or fifth time.  Hint  Kings College and google.


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## MrockStar (Apr 3, 2020)

Ok, sorry about missing your links in previous disscussions I will be more diligent.. going forward. Please accept my apology. Sincerely. AL


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## Rolltydr (Apr 3, 2020)

Alabama governor issues stay at home order, finally!









						Gov. Kay Ivey issues stay-at-home order effective Saturday
					

Ivey had previously resisted calls for a statewide shelter-in-place order, as most states have done, including those that border Alabama.




					www.al.com
				




Governor Ivey has been resisting this step for the past couple of weeks, giving various reasons; As late as yesterday, she said Alabama wasn’t ready for a stay at home order yet because people still needed to go to work. In the press conference today, she said she learned yesterday that the number of cases is expected to spike in 2 weeks, with the order in place. There are over 1,500 confirmed cases in the state today with 38 reported deaths. Those numbers are based on very limited testing. If she had issued the order 2 weeks ago, the spike may have been this week. How many more cases and lives lost will there be in the next 2 weeks? 


Harry


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## VegasBella (Apr 3, 2020)

IMO the bottom line: If we had widespread early testing we could have not only prevented much of the negatives that have occurred and will occur, but we'd also have much more accurate prediction models. This was botched from the beginning.

Now that we are where we are, we can hope for future widespread testing that will improve models so that more informed decisions can be made by leaders. Until then, we must make due with imprecise models based on deaths and hospitalizations.

Right now in my county (Clark County, Nevada - Las Vegas area) we have 39 deaths(*) from COVID19 (statewide* there are 43 deaths). That's the total deaths since they started counting the first one on March 16, less than 3 weeks ago. To put that in perspective, in my county we had a total of 43 flu deaths from the entire flu season, which was 24 weeks long(*). March 17th is when Nevada went into virtual 'lockdown' and the Las Vegas Strip was shut down. Imagine the numbers if the Strip were still open. You don't need a fantastic model to understand that COVID19 is much more lethal than flu.


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## queenofthehive (Apr 3, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> We are retired and the biggest risk is the packages that get delivered to our doorstep. We wear gloves, take in the boxes and spray with the entire external area with Lysol sanitizer. If the box does not contain perishables, we let it sit by the front door for another 24 hours before opening it up and then sanitize the contents. If it holds perishables, we wait for 2 hours before opening up the box and sanitizing the contents.


We received a package today from Amazon and my son alerted us that the a package arrived by yelling from his room “A package is here! The bomb squad needs to report for duty!” Yes, it certainly does feel like that now...


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## DannyTS (Apr 4, 2020)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/04/coronavirus-latest-news/
		


So we are supposed to believe that there are 3500 deaths in the NY state from Coronavirus already, and none of those actually died from other causes. Since a week ago just 10k tested positive and since this virus cannot cause sudden death just in few days, we are supposed to believe the mortality rate is something over 10% in NY

This is despite that everyone has a ventilator there and the care they need. I guess that nobody does make sure the guidelines for declaring a corona virus victim are scientifically rigorous and followed and make sure those that have died from whatever they died from are not put in the same column.

For comparison, Germany has a 0.6% rate








						Coronavirus: Why Germany has such a low COVID-19 death rate
					

Germany has had around 200 coronavirus deaths despite having more than 37,000 confirmed cases of the disease.




					news.sky.com
				




Please do not tell me that Germany has tested more people because that means, to keep the proportions, that 660,000 people, not 110,000 have had coronavirus in the NY state


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## Ken555 (Apr 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/04/coronavirus-latest-news/
> 
> 
> 
> ...



No. It’s very easy to reach incorrect conclusions due to a severe failing in testing. Also, the death rate from “today” should not be compared to the confirmed cases of the same day, since there is the incubation period. Here’s another viewpoint of this concept published just a few hours ago:









						Why we're overestimating the mortality rate for COVID-19
					

A lack of adequate testing for COVID-19 means only a proportion of cases are being counted in official statistics - making it seem deadlier than it is.




					www.weforum.org
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Apr 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> No. It’s very easy to reach incorrect conclusions due to a severe failing in testing. Also, the death rate from “today” should not be compared to the confirmed cases of the same day, since there is the incubation period. Here’s another viewpoint of this concept published just a few hours ago:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Has anyone actually tried to estimate how many Americans have had the virus already? If I understand correctly, this started in China in November (first deaths reported to the WHO on December 31st) and it is hard for me to believe, given it is highly transmissible, that people did not get the virus before the travel ban to China was imposed in early February. By the way, a couple of my friends here in Canada tel me the flu they had back in January was most likely Corona but of course they have no way of knowing for sure.


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## dayooper (Apr 4, 2020)

One of the systems here in SE Michigan has 8 hospitals. This is from a friend of mine that works in the maintenance department.

We have a total of 1071 patients and 163 deaths in the 8 hospitals of the system. They are requesting another refrigerated truck like we had before. In the last 20 minutes we have had 7 pickups from funeral homes.

He thinks they are under reporting the mortality rate.

Another good friend of mine is a local surgeon. Just told us he watched the husband of a coworker die of the disease. He was 52 with no underlying issues. He says it affects some people differently than others.

Again, these are anecdotal accounts and aren’t true data. The danger is real. 





DannyTS said:


> Has anyone actually tried to estimate how many Americans have had the virus already? If I understand correctly, this started in China in November (first deaths reported to the WHO on December 31st) and it is hard for me to believe, given it is highly transmissible, that people did not get the virus before the travel ban to China was imposed in early February. By the way, a couple of my friends here in Canada tel me the flu they had back in January was most likely Corona but of course they have no way of knowing for sure.



Back to our previous conversation, these topics are being discussed and researched. If/when we find the data, hopefully we will act in a smart and thoughtful manner using the data.


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## bluehende (Apr 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/04/coronavirus-latest-news/
> 
> 
> 
> ...



And 2 weeks ago they only had 2000 cases.  There must be some huge conspiracy  SMH.  

@Ken555  don't even try.  You can not argue against a conspiracy theory.  He thinks the medical community in kahoots with government is committing a huge fraud for money.  He argues that these people would have died anyway and then posts a study showing the death rate has doubled due to corona virus to prove that point. lol


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## Ken555 (Apr 4, 2020)

bluehende said:


> And 2 weeks ago they only had 2000 cases. There must be some huge conspiracy SMH.
> 
> @Ken555 don't even try. You can not argue against a conspiracy theory. He thinks the medical community in kahoots with government is committing a huge fraud for money. He argues that these people would have died anyway and then posts a study showing the death rate has doubled due to corona virus to prove that point. lol



What? Huh?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Apr 4, 2020)

bluehende said:


> And 2 weeks ago they only had 2000 cases.  There must be some huge conspiracy  SMH.
> 
> @Ken555  don't even try.  You can not argue against a conspiracy theory.  He thinks the medical community in kahoots with government is committing a huge fraud for money.  He argues that these people would have died anyway and then posts a study showing the death rate has doubled due to corona virus to prove that point. lol


wow. You are really putting words in my mouth. To summarize what I think is that the data is all over the place and a lot of decisions are justified based on things that may not be true today and they were not true at the time the decision was made. By challenging those numbers  you can actually help  unless you think that burring your head in the sand is what everyone needs to be doing, now and forever.  You actually probably think that way. If at one point somebody questions why the mortality is so different in different parts of the world and the country (or other numbers), is that a conspiracy theory?

I have lived through several transformational events during my life, in NA and elsewhere. A lot of the numbers presented during those events  are proved to be wrong at the later time. Trust but verify. Thanks.


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## Talent312 (Apr 4, 2020)

Those who think this is a massive conspiracy are misinformed.
This is actually a dream induced by cell phones beams.
But turning off your cell phone won't help.

They're coming to take [you] away, ha-haaa
To the funny farm where life is beautiful all the time
And [you'll] be happy to see those nice young men
In their clean white coats...
_-- by Napoleon XIV (1966)_
.


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## needvaca (Apr 4, 2020)

dannyTS- I know 6 people who almost certainly have/had covid19, but couldn’t get testing. Their doctors/hospitals wouldn't allow a test because they weren’t over 65 and they weren’t struggling so bad to breathe that they would die.
So in short, I think/know the # of cases is way understated.


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## geekette (Apr 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> wow. You are really putting words in my mouth. To summarize what I think is that the data is all over the place and a lot of decisions are justified based on things that may not be true today and they were not true at the time the decision was made. By challenging those numbers  you can actually help  unless you think that burring your head in the sand is what everyone needs to be doing, now and forever.  You actually probably think that way. If at one point somebody questions why the mortality is so different in different parts of the world and the country (or other numbers), is that a conspiracy theory?
> 
> I have lived through several transformational events during my life, in NA and elsewhere. A lot of the numbers presented during those events  are proved to be wrong at the later time. Trust but verify. Thanks.


good luck verifying


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## DannyTS (Apr 4, 2020)

one more thing folks, the weather is barely starting to get a little bit better now in Eastern Canada but we are still oscillating between freezing/non freezing temperatures. Please forgive us for losing our minds a little bit faster than those that are enjoying the Sun by their pools.


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## geekette (Apr 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> one more thing folks, the weather is barely starting to get a little bit better now in Eastern Canada but we are still oscillating between freezing/non freezing temperatures. Please forgive us for losing our minds a little bit faster than those that are enjoying the Sun by their pools.


Still partially winter here.  One of my furnaces went bonkers weeks ago so I shut it off the breaker and have been hoping for at least spring.


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## b2bailey (Apr 4, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I am confused by your point. In this article, they talk about 4 different social distancing methods. Not sure what you mean by this is the data to back it up. I think Danny's point is that social distancing is not the same as a statewide or countrywide Shelter in Place mandate. SIP is much more extreme than social distancing. In California, we had social distancing first and then we moved to statewide SIP. With social distancing, businesses were still open. With SIP, everyone who could started working at home. In Sweden, people are social distancing but businesses are still open and people still eat in restaurants. They are being more careful but not to the extreme as we are in the USA.


Even now, I get confused by people who insist Shelter in Place really means House Arrest.


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## bluehende (Apr 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> wow. You are really putting words in my mouth.





DannyTS said:


> I also have to note that certain health care facilities may have an incentive to mix the two together since their budgets and PPE may depend on that.


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## TravelTime (Apr 4, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> Even now, I get confused by people who insist Shelter in Place really means House Arrest.



SIP is not house arrest. You can still walk outside and go to stores approved for essential services like grocery stores, drug stores, Home Depot and Target. I know many people are still visiting friends and family during the SIP order. No one is monitoring why people are driving or where they are going.


----------



## tompalm (Apr 4, 2020)

Well it is summer in Hawaii and south Florida where my sister lives and the virus is alive and well. Don’t think it will be back to business as usual in May when the government says it is ok. Wearing mask and staying at home will continue until a proven vaccine is out and working. My DW will never get on a cruise ship again and probably resist airplanes too.  I assume lots of other people are like that.


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## geekette (Apr 4, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> Even now, I get confused by people who insist Shelter in Place really means House Arrest.


yes.  Annoys me when people call it Lockdown.  It Isn't.  We've seen lockdown on tv in other countries.  That is not happening here.


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## DannyTS (Apr 4, 2020)

@bluehende 

You know (or you should know)  very well that this is a complicated matter.

*


			Defining Comorbidity: Implications for Understanding Health and Health Services
		

*
"In the United States, *about 80% of Medicare spending is devoted to patients with 4 or more chronic conditions, with costs increasing exponentially as the number of chronic conditions increases*.2 This realization is responsible for a growing interest on the part of practitioners and researchers in the impact of comorbidity on a range of outcomes, such as mortality, health-related quality of life, functioning, and quality of health care.3,4

*Attempts to study the impact of comorbidity are complicated by the lack of consensus about how to define and measure the concept*.3 Related constructs, such as multimorbidity, burden of disease, and frailty are often used interchangeably. *There is an emerging consensus that internationally accepted definitions are needed to move the study of this topic forward.3–**5*"

I knew you would say that. But suggesting that  in a complicate situation (and probably many are since those in the hospitals are in many case those with one or more underlying conditions) , out of convenience or maybe even feeling it is in their interest to tip the balance when establishing the cause of death is very different than what you stated : "He thinks the medical community in kahoots with government is committing a huge fraud for money."

If you think the cause of death is in general a  black or  white matter you let us know.


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (Apr 4, 2020)

from a 1918/19 ditty *

“I had a little bird
It’s name was Enza
I opened the window
In- Flew - Enza”

* courtesy of a NYT article - April 4 2020
on 1918 Philadelphia experience with the Spanish Flu


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## Ken555 (Apr 4, 2020)

needvaca said:


> dannyTS- I know 6 people who almost certainly have/had covid19, but couldn’t get testing. Their doctors/hospitals wouldn't allow a test because they weren’t over 65 and they weren’t struggling so bad to breathe that they would die.
> So in short, I think/know the # of cases is way understated.



^^THIS

I know several that had similar experiences, and just this morning my neighbor texted me that she has been ill for the last eight days. Her MD is fairly certain she has C19 but since her condition is okay, she’s being told to just stay at home, etc. She also can’t get a test.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## am1 (Apr 4, 2020)

It should be lockdown/house arrest.  We can leave for 3 hours a week to buy essentials.  Mostly food/pharmacy/banks.  It is based on last digit of ID for what hour can leave.  Women are now MWF.  Men TTS.  Sunday everything is closed.  Tomorrow will be the first try at that.  No alcohol sales or consumption for 2 weeks now with no end in sight.  Limited movement within the country as there are road blocks to make sure people have to where they want to go.  May not agree with everything but it cannot hurt.  

I can leave when I want to as I have to attend to my farms.  Cows have to eat and stay in the fence.


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## DannyTS (Apr 4, 2020)

very interesting  video about this topic


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## x3 skier (Apr 5, 2020)

This article from the Washington Post addresses the issue I have wondered about from the start. How many people die OF the virus or WITH the virus and are the virus death counts reported close to accurate. Information regarding people tested who die with the virus, people who die and are not tested and either reported or not reported and comparisons to other epidemic and pandemic death reporting. 









						Americans are almost certainly dying of COVID-19 but being left out of the official death toll — The Washington Post
					

Only people who test positive are counted.




					apple.news
				




My takeaway is my concern of inaccurate cause of death is small when compared to the total actual deaths caused by the virus that are never “verified” but are almost certainly caused or significantly hasten death. Others may draw other conclusions.  

Stay Safe and Cheers


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## Ken555 (Apr 5, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> This article from the Washington Post addresses the issue I have wondered about from the start. How many people die OF the virus or WITH the virus and are the virus death counts reported close to accurate. Information regarding people tested who die with the virus, people who die and are not tested and either reported or not reported and comparisons to other epidemic and pandemic death reporting.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Another on the same topic: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## geekette (Apr 5, 2020)

I think it would be impossible to ever have an accurate case count or death count.  Both are high.  Way too high.   Growing too fast, too, although case count growth isn't as distressing to me since much of it is due to more testing vs new spread.


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## DannyTS (Apr 5, 2020)

In its guidance, the C.D.C. instructed officials to report deaths where the patient has tested positive or, in an absence of testing, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.”

The methodology they use points to the opposite. About 85% of those that get a test are sure they have corona even if only 5% actually have it. It is interesting that the two articles that should investigate  both possibilities (underestimated/overestimated) only look at one side. I bet WP and NYT will never find any overestimated deaths because they are not looking for one.

By the way, just reading the CDC guidance, how come we do not know how many deaths are “probable” or “presumed.” from coronavirus?


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## Ken555 (Apr 5, 2020)

For every 10 coronavirus cases in Spain and Italy, one is a doctor or nurse









						For every 10 coronavirus cases in Spain and Italy, one is a doctor or nurse
					

"Colleagues have told me they feel like they are going into battle with paper shields and toy guns," said the president of the Italian Nurses Association.




					www.smh.com.au
				




Anecdotally, a MD friend on the front line in Ohio is reporting that in his area it is two for every 10 directly due to lack of PPE.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## geekette (Apr 5, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In its guidance, the C.D.C. instructed officials to report deaths where the patient has tested positive or, in an absence of testing, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.”
> 
> The methodology they use points to the opposite. About 85% of those that get a test are sure they have corona even if only 5% actually have it. It is interesting that the two articles that should investigate  both possibilities (underestimated/overestimated) only look at one side. I bet WP and NYT will never find any overestimated deaths because they are not looking for one.


Yes.   And I would think that hospitals are having to make a hash mark and move on too quickly to  be concerned with absolute accuracy.  In a crisis, things slip.  

I don't expect to be able to ever count "I think I had it, but it wasn't too bad, so I never went to a doctor".   We're also not going to know "I wasn't sure, it could have been flu" and do seek treatment, were not originally COVIN cases, but were by the time they left the place, yet, not tested for it.  

The whole thing is a big scary mess and we'll only every have approximate counts.  For one thing, once we're somewhat past this, people will get back to dying in car crashes or house fires, etc, so untested cases may never be tested to know if they ever had it.


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## geekette (Apr 5, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Anecdotally, a MD friend on the front line in Ohio is reporting that in his area it is two for every 10 directly due to lack of PPE.


This is the worst.   preventable cases.   My best to him and his staff.  I'm pulling for them.


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## vacationtime1 (Apr 5, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> . . . . About 85% of those that get a test are sure they have corona even if only 5% actually have it.



Citation please?


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## bluehende (Apr 5, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In its guidance, the C.D.C. instructed officials to report deaths where the patient has tested positive or, in an absence of testing, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.”
> 
> The methodology they use points to the opposite. About 85% of those that get a test are sure they have corona even if only 5% actually have it. It is interesting that the two articles that should investigate  both possibilities (underestimated/overestimated) only look at one side. I bet WP and NYT will never find any overestimated deaths because they are not looking for one.
> 
> By the way, just reading the CDC guidance, how come we do not know how many deaths are “probable” or “presumed.” from coronavirus?


  Yet from the actual article is this quote from the CDC

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts only deaths in which the presence of the coronavirus is confirmed in a laboratory test. “We know that it is an underestimation,” agency spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said.


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## TravelTime (Apr 5, 2020)

Another problem is that the tests give a false negative up to 30% of the time. So people are being told if they have the symptoms, to assume they have it. My employee’s husband who is a doctor at Stanford said this is what they go by.









						Even if you test negative for COVID-19, assume you have it, experts say
					

No diagnostic test is 100% accurate, but experts have still expressed concern at the accuracy of the COVID-19 tests.




					www.livescience.com


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## DannyTS (Apr 5, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> For every 10 coronavirus cases in Spain and Italy, one is a doctor or nurse
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There will be a larger number of those that work in essential services and their families. I know we will get it sooner that others.


vacationtime1 said:


> Citation please?


why, you do not have google?

This is one of the first that popped up, consistent with other articles I have seen in US and Canada.
So in South Carolina for example, 90% of the tests have come back negative. So a lot of those that would have "reasonably presumed" to have had it and died from it probably did not have it









						Officials release number of negative coronavirus tests in South Carolina
					

On Saturday, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control released the number of negative COVID-19 results it’s received from both public and private labs.




					www.wyff4.com
				





this is another one in Ontario, about 95% negative



			https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus#section-0


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## x3 skier (Apr 5, 2020)

I was certain others would have other opinions when I posted the WaPo article. OTOH I didn’t have a test for it.

Cheers


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## DannyTS (Apr 5, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> I was certain others would have other opinions when I posted the WaPo article. OTOH I didn’t have a test for it.
> 
> Cheers


this is because no matter how you slice the crisis is becoming political and used that way and it will remain like this until November 6th and probably beyond. 

I was reading someone's blog from Sweden. She was saying that the crises is treated by the media in a measured way without counting every 10 new infected or dead people.


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## x3 skier (Apr 5, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> It is interesting that the two articles that should investigate  both possibilities (underestimated/overestimated) only look at one side. I bet WP and NYT will never find any overestimated deaths because they are not looking for one



From the WaPo article. 
Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard, said there are probably some people dying with covid-19 who are not dying of covid-19. Such misattribution is a problem for any cause of death, he said, but it is a minor issue that is “swamped by the opposite problem: deaths that are caused by covid but never attributed, so the death count is underestimated.”

Also
Widdowson, the former CDC scientist, was part of a team that estimated global deaths from the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic. The World Health Organization recorded only 18,631 people with laboratory-confirmed diagnoses dying of that disease. But the pandemic probably caused 15 times as many deaths, the CDC team [concluded in 2012](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(12)70121-4/fulltext).

And finally
In addition to the 6,593 lab-confirmed deaths, CDC on Friday reported that death certificate data shows 1,150 people have died of covid-19.
The numbers differ in part because of a lag in reporting, and because the code for recording covid-19 as a cause of death was not announced until March 24, weeks after the first known case of an American dying of the disease caused by the coronavirus. Death certificate data will be part of the CDC’s new effort to estimate total covid-19 fatalities.

One could interpret the last quote as COVID -19 deaths are overstated by a factor of 5. I would not. 

Cheers


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## WVBaker (Apr 5, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> She was saying that the crises is treated by the media in a measured way without counting every 10 new infected or dead people.



Doesn't make for higher viewership and ratings here.


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## x3 skier (Apr 5, 2020)

An article from the WSJ I agree with. 









						Opinion | Was Dr. Strangelove an Epidemiologist?
					

A doctor on the frontlines of the coronavirus crisis has special permission to tell the truth.




					www.wsj.com
				




Cheers


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## TravelTime (Apr 5, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> An article from the WSJ I agree with.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



To me, this is the critical point of the article:

_“The problem here is not an inability to think clearly. It’s an unwillingness to be seen thinking clearly.“

“Let’s understand something: The point of cost-benefit analysis is not the one that launched a thousand op-eds, to trade human lives for mere dollars. Its purpose is to help us weigh different kinds of harm against each other so we can achieve our goals at the least possible cost.”_


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## Brett (Apr 5, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> To me, this is the critical point of the article:
> 
> _“The problem here is not an inability to think clearly. It’s an unwillingness to be seen thinking clearly.“
> 
> “Let’s understand something: The point of cost-benefit analysis is not the one that launched a thousand op-eds, to trade human lives for mere dollars. Its purpose is to help us weigh different kinds of harm against each other so we can achieve our goals at the least possible cost.”_



and it depends on whose cost/benefit analysis to achieve "our goals"


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## DannyTS (Apr 5, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> To me, this is the critical point of the article:
> 
> _“The problem here is not an inability to think clearly. It’s an unwillingness to be seen thinking clearly.“
> 
> “Let’s understand something: The point of cost-benefit analysis is not the one that launched a thousand op-eds, to trade human lives for mere dollars. Its purpose is to help us weigh different kinds of harm against each other so we can achieve our goals at the least possible cost.”_


I am also afraid that keeping the whole population under a glass globe for 6 or 9 months may harm the immunity system of many and cause a lot more additional casualties at future flu seasons, not to mention it increases the risk to die from many other conditions:









						The risks of social isolation
					

Evidence links perceived loneliness and social isolation with depression, poor sleep quality, impaired executive function, accelerated cognitive decline, poor cardiovascular function and impaired immunity at every stage of life.




					www.apa.org
				




*Effects of loneliness and isolation*
As demonstrated by a review of the effects of perceived social isolation across the life span, co-authored by Hawkley, loneliness can wreak havoc on an individual’s physical, mental and cognitive health (_Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B_, Vol. 370, No. 1669, 2015). Hawkley points to evidence linking perceived social isolation with adverse health consequences including depression, poor sleep quality, impaired executive function, accelerated cognitive decline, poor cardiovascular function and impaired immunity at every stage of life. In addition, a 2019 study led by Kassandra Alcaraz, PhD, MPH, a public health researcher with the American Cancer Society, analyzed data from more than 580,000 adults and found that social isolation increases the risk of premature death from every cause for every race (_American Journal of Epidemiology_, Vol. 188, No. 1, 2019). According to Alcaraz, *among black participants, social isolation doubled the risk of early death, while it increased the risk among white participants by 60 to 84 percent.*
"Our research really shows that the magnitude of risk* presented by social isolation is very similar in magnitude to that of obesity, smoking, lack of access to care and physical inactivity," *she says. In the study, investigators weighted several standard measures of social isolation, including marital status, frequency of religious service attendance, club meetings/group activities and number of close friends or relatives. They found that overall, race seemed to be a stronger predictor of social isolation than sex; white men and women were more likely to be in the least isolated category than were black men and women.

The American Cancer Society study is the largest to date on all races and genders, but previous research has provided glimpses into the harmful effects of social isolation and loneliness. A 2016 study led by Newcastle University epidemiologist Nicole Valtorta, PhD, for example, *linked loneliness to a 30 percent increase in risk of stroke or the development of coronary heart disease *(_Heart_, Vol. 102, No. 13). Valtorta notes that a lonely individual’s higher risk of ill health likely *stems from several combined factors: behavioral, biological and psychological.*

"Lacking encouragement from family or friends, those who are lonely may slide into unhealthy habits," Valtorta says. "In addition, loneliness has been found to raise levels of stress, impede sleep and, in turn, harm the body. Loneliness can also augment depression or anxiety."

Last year, researchers at the Florida State University College of Medicine also found that *loneliness is associated with a 40 percent increase in a person’s risk of dementia* (_The Journals of Gerontology: Series B_, online 2018). Led by Angelina Sutin, PhD, the study examined data on more than 12,000 U.S. adults ages 50 years and older. Participants rated their levels of loneliness and social isolation and completed a cognitive battery every two years for up to 10 years.

Among older adults in particular, loneliness is more likely to set in when an individual is dealing with functional limitations and has low family support, Hawkley says. Better self-rated health, more social interaction and less family strain reduce older adults’ feelings of loneliness, according to a study, led by Hawkley, examining data from more than 2,200 older adults (_Research on Aging_, Vol. 40, No. 4, 2018). "Even among those who started out lonely, those who were in better health and socialized with others more often had much better odds of subsequently recovering from their loneliness," she says.

A 2015 study led by Steven Cole, MD, a professor of medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles, provides additional clues as to why loneliness can harm overall health (_PNAS_, Vol. 112, No. 49, 2015). *He and his colleagues examined gene expressions in leukocytes, white blood cells that play key roles in the immune system’s response to infection.* *They found that the leukocytes of lonely participants—both humans and rhesus macaques—showed an increased expression of genes involved in inflammation and a decreased expression of genes involved in antiviral responses.*

Loneliness, it seems, can lead to long-term "fight-or-flight" stress signaling, which negatively affects immune system functioning. Simply put, people who feel lonely have less immunity and more inflammation than people who don’t.


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## geist1223 (Apr 5, 2020)

This morning on National News a Medical Expert that is involved in treating people with Covid-19 was asked about of the survival rate for those put on ventilators. The Doctor replied only about 20%.


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## TravelTime (Apr 5, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> This morning on National News a Medical Expert that is involved in treating people with Covid-19 was asked about of the survival rate for those put on ventilators. The Doctor replied only about 20%.



It seems that ventilators are not a solution but might delay dying for the lucky few who survive it. The process of going on a ventilator is very traumatic and I read that those who do survive often have PTSD. It sounds like a horrible process. I feel sorry for people who get critically ill with Covid-19 or other lung diseases.









						Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients
					

Ventilators can be lifesaving for some critically ill patients, but they're no panacea. The experience so far with COVID-19 is that the majority of patients put on ventilators don't survive.




					www.npr.org


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## x3 skier (Apr 5, 2020)

It is not given to human beings - happily for them, for otherwise life would be intolerable - to foresee or to predict to any large extent the unfolding course of events. 

                               Winston Churchill 1940.


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## TravelTime (Apr 5, 2020)

*WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE  ECONOMY
State Shutdowns Have Taken at Least a Quarter of U.S. Economy Offline
Eight in 10 U.S. counties are under lockdown orders, according to a study, and they represent nearly 96% of national output*

At least one-quarter of the U.S. economy has suddenly gone idle amid the coronavirus pandemic, an analysis conducted for The Wall Street Journal shows, an unprecedented shutdown of commerce that economists say has never occurred on such a wide scale.

The study, by the economic-analysis firm Moody’s Analytics, offers one of the most comprehensive looks yet at how much of the world’s largest economy has shut down in the past three weeks. It also analyzes counties big and small—from Manhattan to tiny Gilpin County, Colo.—to estimate how a concentration of government shutdown orders in the counties that produce a disproportionate share of the nation’s goods and services has weighed on the national picture.

While 8 in 10 U.S. counties are under lockdown orders, according to Moody’s, they represent nearly 96% of national output.
Forty-one states have ordered at least some businesses to close to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, according to Moody’s. Restaurants, universities, gyms, movie theaters, public parks, boutiques and millions of other “nonessential” businesses have shut off the lights as a result. The upshot: U.S. daily output has fallen roughly 29%, compared with the first week of March, just before the spate of closures, the analysis shows.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, doesn’t believe the 29% monthly drop in daily output will be sustained over two more months. If it did, gross domestic product would fall at a roughly 75% annual rate in the second quarter. Mr. Zandi believes many counties will reopen before the summer and projects a 30% annualized decline in second-quarter GDP.

Most economists expect output to pick back up this summer or in the fall, as states reopen and virus cases drop. But the magnitude of the drop in daily output—however long it lasts—is staggering.

Annual output fell 26% between 1929 and 1933, during the Great Depression, Commerce Department data show. Quarterly output fell almost 4% between late 2007 and mid-2009, the last recession.

*“This is a natural disaster,” Mr. Zandi said. “There’s nothing in the Great Depression that is analogous to what we’re experiencing now.”*









						WSJ News Exclusive | State Shutdowns Have Taken at Least a Quarter of U.S. Economy Offline
					

An estimated 29% of the U.S. economy has suddenly gone idle, an analysis shows, an unprecedented shutdown of commerce that economists say has never occurred on such a wide scale.




					www.wsj.com


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## DannyTS (Apr 5, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> From the WaPo article.
> Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard, said there are probably some people dying with covid-19 who are not dying of covid-19. Such misattribution is a problem for any cause of death, he said, but it is a minor issue that is “swamped by the opposite problem: deaths that are caused by covid but never attributed, so the death count is underestimated.”
> 
> Also
> ...


If you watch the video I posted earlier you will see that  very few people are actually tested for flu after they die. This is why for every person that tests positive they assume that other 79 have actually died from flu and this is how they come with the annual estimates. 






This may have been the case a couple of weeks ago with the coronavirus  but now more and more people are tested so we should assume that less and less are left out of the statistics at least those with severe symptoms. Again, 90% of the tests come back negative so it is hard to make a case they do not test enough. It is hard for me to believe that the number of people who died from Coronavirus is double though as some claim in the media. I have not seen reports that a lot of people die suddenly from this so one would wonder why those who may have died did not end up in the hospital before to be counted in the official statistics.


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## JanT (Apr 5, 2020)

I'm not sure why someone would have PTSD from it because a medical team puts them into a medically induced coma before they do it.  



TravelTime said:


> It seems that ventilators are not a solution but might delay dying for the lucky few who survive it. The process of going on a ventilator is very traumatic and I read that those who do survive often have PTSD. It sounds like a horrible process. I feel sorry for people who get critically ill with Covid-19 or other lung diseases.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Apr 5, 2020)

I don't know if I posted this before, but Rick and I may have had it around 3/1.  We came through SFO airport from Maui and were in the airport very early for our Southwest flight home the next day.  This was after our one-night stay at the Hyatt Regency near the airport. 

One week later, we both started coughing (the same exact day), and we had fevers, and I had a terrible backache, right where my lungs are located.  I also had a sore throat.  We didn't let my stepdad come over because we both felt so lousy.  He usually eats dinner with us, but we told him we had fever, and we were worried about him getting it.  He is 86, so we were protecting him. 

Weeks later, we are wondering if we had it.  It was different from a cold for me.  The pain in my back was pretty bad.


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## TravelTime (Apr 5, 2020)

JanT said:


> I'm not sure why someone would have PTSD from it because a medical team puts them into a medically induced coma before they do it.



I heard they have really bad dreams. I do not doubt that they can remember some things. The mind is a mysterious thing. There is a lot we do not know.


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## WVBaker (Apr 5, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> It seems that ventilators are not a solution but might delay dying for the lucky few who survive it. The process of going on a ventilator is very traumatic and I read that those who do survive often have PTSD. It sounds like a horrible process. I feel sorry for people who get critically ill with Covid-19 or other lung diseases.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This article notes the same problem.

*Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators*









						Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators - Physician's Weekly
					

Written by Physician's Weekly Blogger, Skeptical Scalpel Although at the time I wrote this over 33,000 people had died from COVID 19 infections worldwide, the numbers of patients dying in intensive care units and on mechanical ventilation is unknown. We have some early published data on...



					www.physiciansweekly.com
				





I agree with one of the comments made.

"Having more information may also hold clues to this seemingly high mortality rate. Age of patients, general health condition to include underlying conditions, and duration of illness before ventilation was necessary would be a good start."


Also, we must understand what the result would assuredly be if they didn't place the patient on a ventilator.


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## geekette (Apr 5, 2020)

JanT said:


> I'm not sure why someone would have PTSD from it because a medical team puts them into a medically induced coma before they do it.


Yeah, that's what I was thinking!  You don't actually know or feel it.  Once it's removed and you wake up, you totally know it was there.  Like every time I had it during surgery.


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## geekette (Apr 5, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> If you watch the video I posted earlier you will see that  very few people are actually tested for flu after they die. This is why for every person that tests positive they assume that other 79 have actually died from flu and this is how they come with the annual estimates.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There have been reports of false negatives, so I would not be quick to latch onto the 90% negative.   So many different tests out there, and I don't know what my state is using.  But still less than 20k tested.


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## TravelTime (Apr 5, 2020)

geekette said:


> Yeah, that's what I was thinking!  You don't actually know or feel it.  Once it's removed and you wake up, you totally know it was there.  Like every time I had it during surgery.



I just had a colonoscopy a few weeks ago. This is nothing compared to being on a ventilator for Covid-19. Yet I was still thinking about it afterwards and wondering what happened. I could not remember anything because they gave me drugs to make me numb. But I fell asleep and was completely out of it. For days, I kept trying to remember what happened and it bothered me that I could not remember. The doctor's report said I handled it well. But that is because I was knocked out. I did not handle it well, from my point of view. I was scared to death! From my point of view, I did not have a choice. I can imagine how this could become PTSD for more severe procedures.


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## geekette (Apr 5, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I just had a colonoscopy a few weeks ago. This is nothing compared to being on a ventilator for Covid-19. Yet I was still thinking about it afterwards and wondering what happened. I could not remember anything because they gave me drugs to make me numb. But I fell asleep and was completely out of it. For days, I kept trying to remember what happened and it bothered me that I could not remember. The doctor's report said I handled it well. But that is because I was knocked out. I did not handle it well, from my point of view. I was scared to death! From my point of view, I did not have a choice. I can imagine how this could become PTSD for more severe procedures.


I do not like to be put under.  Ever.   And now that I have had a reaction after the last 2 procedures, I will be very choosy about what I actually "need".  I can't seem to find a doctor that shares my concern about what is happening to me afterwards so I don't have much chance of figuring out why this is.   

Fear is normal.  Loss of control can be scary.   I get it.  

I don't try to remember, I know what I was there for and it seems like an instant between "count backwards" and awaking in recovery, then I'm taking inventory.  can see, check.  can wiggle toes, check.  pain vs numb, check.


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## DannyTS (Apr 5, 2020)

geekette said:


> There have been reports of false negatives, so I would not be quick to latch onto the 90% negative.   So many different tests out there, and I don't know what my state is using.  But still less than 20k tested.


there has been no study  that I know to prove that


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 5, 2020)

"Governments across Europe have begun preparations to ease the lockdowns imposed across much of the continent to contain the coronavirus pandemic, even if restrictions that have paralysed the economy are expected to remain in force for several more weeks. France, Spain, Belgium and Finland are among many countries that have set up expert committees to examine a gradual easing of stay-at-home orders for some businesses and schools while avoiding a second wave of infections that could overwhelm health services.

France, Spain, Belgium and Finland are among many countries that have set up expert committees to examine a gradual easing of stay-at-home orders for some businesses and schools while avoiding a second wave of infections that could overwhelm health services."







						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com


----------



## x3 skier (Apr 5, 2020)

Since everyone can find an article, blog, paper, video or other set of words to support their view, whatever it is, I’ve decided not to continue to participate in this thread. For the past few days, the same various opinions are repeated over and over so there’s really nothing new for me to digest. All viewpoints and information were informative and thanks to all who have contributed.

I’ll just continue in the “Geezer Holding Cell” (my house) until I obtain a full release from our Governor although I can “self parole” anytime I really need to get out. 

Stay Safe. 

Cheers


----------



## geist1223 (Apr 5, 2020)

I wonder how the Dutch Experiment will turn out?


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 5, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> I wonder how the Dutch Experiment will turn out?



"A further 253 people have been admitted to hospital overnight, a sharp drop on Saturday’s figure, although there may be a time lag, the RIVM said. The number of positive tests rose to 17,851 (+1,224). The number of hospital admissions has been declining for several days now, a fact confirmed by research carried out by Stanford University in the US."

Read more at DutchNews.nl: 








						Dutch corona hospital admissions decline, death toll rise by 115 - DutchNews.nl
					

The official death toll from coronavirus in the Netherlands climbed by 115 on Sunday, according to the daily update from public health agency RIVM. This takes the official death toll to 1,766, although the true figure is likely to be higher. Three people under the age of 50 have now died...




					www.dutchnews.nl


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 5, 2020)

Here’s an article about PTSD in ICU survivors who have been on ventilators. The article is a bit old but this shows it is not a new phenomenon. If you google the topic, you will see many articles. It seems like a double whammy. Not only do you have the physical trauma but then you get the psychological trauma. So sad.






						PTSD Symptoms Common Among ICU Survivors - 02/26/2013
					

One in three people who survived stays in an intensive care unit (ICU) and required use of a mechanical ventilator showed substantial post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms that lasted for up to two years, according to a new Johns Hopkins study of patients with acute lung injury.



					www.hopkinsmedicine.org


----------



## JanT (Apr 6, 2020)

TravelTime,

Back in 2011 my daughter contracted H1N1 and came within hours of dying.  She was placed into a medically induced coma and on a ventilator.  She was unaware of being placed on the ventilator as they did keep her in the coma but after she recovered she told me that while she was in ICU and in the coma, she could hear people talking, she knew when the doctors made incisions in her chest to release the pressure that was building up because the ventilator blew a hole in one of her lungs, etc.  So yes, she did have some recognize of things.   Even as I write this I feel the horror I felt during that time, so afraid I was going to lose her.  I thank God every day for saving her, for the millions of prayers that were said for her, including from my TUGGERs here.  



TravelTime said:


> I heard they have really bad dreams. I do not doubt that they can remember some things. The mind is a mysterious thing. There is a lot we do not know.


----------



## Big Matt (Apr 6, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I heard they have really bad dreams. I do not doubt that they can remember some things. The mind is a mysterious thing. There is a lot we do not know.


My best friend was on a ventilator for about a week due to complications from a heart attack.  His lungs were in bad shape (smoker) and they started to fill with fluid.  When he came out of the coma, he was partially in and out of reality.  He had wild dreams during his time on the ventilator and believed they were true.  The dreams involved some of his friends dying in an unauthorized dirt race track event, he thought that his brother started a company to lay fiber optic cable (his brother isn't in this business), and he was certain of other events that never happened.  He laughs it all off now, but it really messed him up for a while.  I can imagine PTSD for some without question.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 6, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> My best friend was on a ventilator for about a week due to complications from a heart attack.  His lungs were in bad shape (smoker) and they started to fill with fluid.  When he came out of the coma, he was partially in and out of reality.  He had wild dreams during his time on the ventilator and believed they were true.  The dreams involved some of his friends dying in an unauthorized dirt race track event, he thought that his brother started a company to lay fiber optic cable (his brother isn't in this business), and he was certain of other events that never happened.  He laughs it all off now, but it really messed him up for a while.  I can imagine PTSD for some without question.


  My mother was on one for about a week.  She told us  of the horrifying nightmares.  After she was off she would wake up screaming with the same nightmares.  They slowly became more infrequent until she died 15 yrs later but never completely went away.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

we commented about this last week. 
*"Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause"









						Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause | The Union Journal
					

Dr Deborah Birx, the reaction planner for the White House coronavirus job pressure, stated the government government is remaining to count the believed COVID-19 deaths, regardless of various other cou




					theunionjournal.com
				



*


----------



## Karen G (Apr 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> we commented about this last week.
> *"Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause"
> 
> 
> ...


The article is from a questionable source and sounds like whoever wrote it does not have English as their first language. Here's
what I found out about The Union Journal:  Founded in 2019, The Union Journal is an imposter news and opinion website.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> we commented about this last week.
> *"Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause"
> 
> 
> ...


  from your article

“Then you will include in those numbers some people who did have a pre-existing condition that would have caused death anyway, but that’s probably a small number,” Baden stated. 

And here from a more reliable source.









						Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll (Published 2020)
					

Inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision making have led to an undercounting of people with the coronavirus who have died, health experts say.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

Karen G said:


> The article is from a questionable source and sounds like whoever wrote it does not have English as their first language. Here's
> what I found out about The Union Journal:  Founded in 2019, The Union Journal is an imposter news and opinion website.


so that means it is not true, right

two more:









						Feds classifying all coronavirus patient deaths as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause
					

The federal government is classifying the deaths of patients infected with the coronavirus as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of any underlying health issues that could have contributed to the loss of …




					nypost.com
				












						Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause
					

The federal government is classifying the deaths of patients infected with the coronavirus as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of any underlying health issues that could have contributed to the loss of someone's life.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

Karen G said:


> The article is from a questionable source and sounds like whoever wrote it does not have English as their first language. Here's
> what I found out about The Union Journal:  Founded in 2019, The Union Journal is an imposter news and opinion website.


 or maybe this

Speaker 24: (01:37:58)
This one’s for Dr. Fauci or Dr. Birx. Can you talk about your concerns about deaths being misreported by coronavirus because of either the testing standards or how they’re characterized.

Dr. Birx: (01:38:13)
So I think in this country we’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality and I think the reporting here has been pretty straightforward over the last five to six weeks. Prior to that when there wasn’t testing in January and February, that’s a very different situation and unknown. There are other countries that if you had a preexisting condition and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem, some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. Right now we’re still recording it and the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as COVID-19 infection, the intent is right now that if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.









						Donald Trump Coronavirus Task Force Briefing April 7
					

Donald Trump and the Coronavirus Task Force held their daily press conference on April 7. Trump mentioned withholding WHO funding. Full transcript here.




					www.rev.com


----------



## Karen G (Apr 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> so that means it is not true, right


No, it means that everything you find on the internet may or may not be true. Consider the source & do your own due diligence, which it looks like you did with your other sources. 

I don’t really see that this particular topic of how the deaths are counted is such a big deal. All deaths are tragic for the families and loved ones no matter the cause. Even if someone had an underlying health condition, contracting the virus certainly contributed to their death so I don’t see the controversy.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

Karen G said:


> No, it means that everything you find on the internet may or may not be true. Consider the source & do your own due diligence, which it looks like you did with your other sources.
> 
> I don’t really see that this particular topic of how the deaths are counted is such a big deal. All deaths are tragic for the families and loved ones no matter the cause. Even if someone had an underlying health condition, contracting the virus certainly contributed to their death so I don’t see the controversy.


It is related to the topic of this post, the number is death is important because it affects policy decisions. One way you react if there are 2 million deaths, completely different if you have 80k but the number includes a lot of people who may have actually died from other causes. It is very early and we need more data but I am just surprised this was not picked up at all by 99% of the media. Remember, the day before, they were all running with the news that the number of deaths may be understated.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> It is related to the topic of this post, the number is death is important because it affects policy decisions. One way you react if there are 2 million deaths, completely different if you have 80k but the number includes a lot of people who may have actually died from other causes. It is very early and we need more data but I am just surprised this was not picked up at all by 99% of the media. Remember, the day before, they were all running with the news that the number of deaths may be understated.



I will repeat from the article YOU posted.  

“Then you will include in those numbers some people who did have a pre-existing condition that would have caused death anyway, but that’s probably a small number,” Baden stated. 

Nowhere in that article does it say it is a major problem.  Yes some will be counted that should not be and some will not be counted that should be.  There is no reason other than wanting it to be true that says there is any major over reporting of deaths.  Covid19 did not even have a medical code until Mar 16.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I will repeat from the article YOU posted.
> 
> “Then you will include in those numbers some people who did have a pre-existing condition that would have caused death anyway, but that’s probably a small number,” Baden stated.
> 
> Nowhere in that article does it say it is a major problem.  Yes some will be counted that should not be and some will not be counted that should be.  There is no reason other than wanting it to be true that says there is any major over reporting of deaths.  Covid19 did not even have a medical code until Mar 16.


The problem with what you say is that nobody ( including Dr Baden who is a Fox news contributor and did not have access to the underlying data) can state  that the number of those cases is small or large. I am not trying to say he is not a capable doctor but you really need a team of smart Google people to dig into that data, it is not a statement you can make without doing a lot of work.

It is indeed very interesting that the total number of deaths in in USA (not just Corona) does not appear to be on the rise and it actually went down from what I understand. There may be less car accidents but we will have to see how the number of deaths _caused just by illnesses_ during the last couple of weeks compare to normal times.


----------



## pedro47 (Apr 8, 2020)

Figures lie and so do the people who publish or broadcast them. IMO.


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 8, 2020)

on the vent issue:








						With ventilators running out, doctors say the machines are overused for Covid-19
					

Critical care physicians are questioning the wide use of ventilators for #Covid19, saying that a large number of patients could instead be treated with less intensive respiratory support.




					www.statnews.com


----------



## davidvel (Apr 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> It is indeed very interesting that the total number of deaths in in USA (not just Corona) does not appear to be on the rise and it actually went down from what I understand. There may be less car accidents but we will have to see *how the number of deaths caused just by illnesses during the last couple of weeks compare to normal times.*


This is precisely the question I have been asking myself, and searching for.  That being, how many more additional (marginal) deaths are there due to COVID-19 vs. prior to COVID-19.  For example, how many people actually died because of COVID-19 (generally due to pulmonary, cardio, or septic issues) during a relative time period, that would not  have died even had they not caught COVID-19, due to colds, flu, falling down, etc.?  Not sure we'll ever know this precisely, as you note, many people are not dying (in car accidents etc.), due to the shutdown/lockdown, so the raw stats won't help us.


----------



## davidvel (Apr 8, 2020)

Karen G said:


> I don’t really see that this particular topic of how the deaths are counted is such a big deal. All deaths are tragic for the families and loved ones no matter the cause. Even if someone had an underlying health condition, contracting the virus certainly contributed to their death so I don’t see the controversy.


It matters because many people's lives are being utterly devastated by the losing jobs, can't pay rent, racking up bills, contemplating bankruptcy, [millions starving] or committing suicide. (Probably not many in the TUG demographic.)

We've never done anything even remotely like this lockdown/shutdown for causes of deaths that far exceed the current estimates. U.S. "preventable" annual deaths:


Medical Malpractice - 210,000 to 448,000 ( do we require 2-3 doctors per surgery?)
Smoking - 435,000 (do we ban all smoking?)
Being overweight and obesity - 111,900  (do we lockdown overweight people, not let them eat?)
Alcohol - 85,000 (back to prohibition?)
Traffic collisions - 43,000 (no more driving?)
STDs - 20,000 (no more ?)
We could save a  lot of people if we just kept this lockdown/shutdown permanent.  Of course there are significant consequences, which is why we've not done it is a long time.

Governments have to justify what they've done (and possibly rightfully so if the numbers pan out.)  Many people don't sit blindly and question the relativity of what is happening.  That's why it all matters.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 8, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It matters because many people's lives are being utterly devastated by the losing jobs, can't pay rent, racking up bills, contemplating bankruptcy, committing suicide. (Probably not many in the TUG demographic.)
> 
> We've never done anything even remotely like this lockdown/shutdown for causes of deaths that far exceed the current estimates. U.S. "preventable" annual deaths:
> 
> ...



I agree. That was the purpose of this thread. It was just to pose the question of whether the lock downs are worth the side effects you mentioned. Many people took it to mean that lives do not matter. That is not what the article or I intended to portray. Frankly, I am still not convinced that we have had the right response but I am open to whatever the data says after the experts are able to analyze the response. Someone commented on this thread that it has already been proven that the lock downs were the right response. I am not yet convinced of that but maybe I will be with more time. I definitely think the fear of Covid-19 is out of proportion with the actual risk. And I think that unrealistic fear has led to the worldwide response.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 8, 2020)

Here’s another side effect. People in the USA are starving and the food banks can’t keep up.

————-

*‘Never Seen Anything Like It’: Cars Line Up for Miles at Food Banks*
Millions are flooding a charitable system that was never intended to handle a nationwide crisis.









						‘Never Seen Anything Like It’: Cars Line Up for Miles at Food Banks (Published 2020)
					

Millions are flooding a charitable system that was never intended to handle a nationwide crisis.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## PigsDad (Apr 8, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It matters because many people's lives are being utterly devastated by the losing jobs, can't pay rent, racking up bills, contemplating bankruptcy, committing suicide. (Probably not many in the TUG demographic.)
> 
> We've never done anything even remotely like this lockdown/shutdown for causes of deaths that far exceed the current estimates. U.S. "preventable" annual deaths:
> 
> ...


Bingo!  Well stated.  It will be interesting, when this is all over, to make a comparison of what most countries did (lockdown / shelter in place) vs. what Sweden is doing.  The initial data looks like they are getting similar results with far less damage to their economy.

Kurt


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It matters because many people's lives are being utterly devastated by the losing jobs, can't pay rent, racking up bills, contemplating bankruptcy, committing suicide. (Probably not many in the TUG demographic.)
> 
> We've never done anything even remotely like this lockdown/shutdown for causes of deaths that far exceed the current estimates. U.S. "preventable" annual deaths:
> 
> ...


you left out, probably to be politically correct, overweight and obesity - 300,000 annual deaths. I know that in many cases this is genetic but in many others it is how we chose to live and eat.


----------



## Fitts (Apr 8, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It matters because many people's lives are being utterly devastated by the losing jobs, can't pay rent, racking up bills, contemplating bankruptcy, committing suicide. (Probably not many in the TUG demographic.)
> 
> We've never done anything even remotely like this lockdown/shutdown for causes of deaths that far exceed the current estimates. U.S. "preventable" annual deaths:
> 
> ...


Thanks for the statistics. I believe that I've read that 100,000 people die annually from properly prescribed medications. I guess they would be in addition to the medical malpractice figures. I also read recently that CDC estimates that between 12,000 and 61,000 people have died annually from regular flu between 2010 and 2017. 
I don't read Dean Koontz, but I saw in a video a copy of a page from The Eye of Darkness which referred to Wuhan 400. I read elsewhere that COVID-19 was patented in Nov. 2018 and the patent is owned by the Pirbright Foundation, of which Prince Phillip (or Charles?) is a director and Bill Gates is a contributor. Interestingly, there is a quote of Prince Phillip in 1988 saying that if he could be reincarnated, he'd like to come back as a virus to contribute to depopulation. Makes you go hmmmm? Do some research if you're interested in connecting some dots.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> you left out, probably to be politically correct, overweight and obesity - 300,000 annual deaths. I know that in many cases this is genetic but in many others it is how we chose to live and eat.



He did include obesity.


----------



## Jan M. (Apr 8, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Figures lie and so do the people who publish or broadcast them. IMO.



One of the earliest lessons learned when studying probability and statistics is that, “Numbers don’t lie, but liars figure.” This phrase originated many years ago in reference to the frequent misuse of statistics and the fraudulent practices employed by those who twist data and numbers for their own purposes. Statistics are only as good as the data they are based on and the people using those numbers to their own ends.


----------



## geist1223 (Apr 8, 2020)

To paraphase Samuel Clemens: there are liars, there are damn liars,  and there are statistics.


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## geist1223 (Apr 8, 2020)

The reason for SIP and Social Distancing is not to cut down on the number of deaths or the number of people that get Convid19. It is to stretch out the time period to reduce the load on the medical community. The other theory is to go about the normal life and get a high peak quickly that goes down quickly and herd immunity eventually kicks in.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> The reason for SIP and Social Distancing is not to cut down on the number of deaths or the number of people that get Convid19. It is to stretch out the time period to reduce the load on the medical community. The other theory is to go about the normal life and get a high peak quickly that goes down quickly and herd immunity eventually kicks in.


Can you explain us how the herd immunity kicks in? After about 2 months, you have 500,000 cases in the US. How many months do you need to achieve that at the current pace of about 30k of new cases a day?

Can you please also explain why Sweden is not doing worse than other European countries despite not closing shops, bars and restaurants?


----------



## geist1223 (Apr 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Can you explain us how the herd immunity kicks in? After about 2 months, you have 500,000 cases in the US. How many months do you need to achieve that at the current pace of about 30k of new cases a day?
> 
> Can you please also explain why Sweden is not doing worse than other European countries despite not closing shops, bars and restaurants?



Once enough people get it and recover there will a herd immunitymjustmlike measles shots.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Once enough people get it and recover there will a herd immunitymjustmlike measles shots.


at this pace 10 million people will have had it in a year. How does that protect the other 320 million people?


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 8, 2020)

Herd immunity is what Sweden is doing.


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## CO skier (Apr 8, 2020)

geist1223 said:


> Once enough people get it and recover there will a herd immunitymjustmlike measles shots.


There was no "herd immunity" for measles until there was a measles vaccine.  Smallpox, too.  Many other examples.

More than 90% of the world's population has _not _been exposed to Covid-19.  Look at where the world's public policy is now with that relatively low exposure rate.  It is politically unacceptable to allow the Covid-19 infection to take the world anywhere close to "herd immunity" even on "rolling peak-and-trough" infection curves over time. There will be no "herd immunity" for Covid-19 until there is a vaccine, except maybe in Sweden a few months from now -- the jury is still out -- and the results of the experiment will be informative for the "next time."


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)




----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

the part I want to point out to starts at 19m 30s


----------



## CPNY (Apr 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> you left out, probably to be politically correct, overweight and obesity - 300,000 annual deaths. I know that in many cases this is genetic but in many others it is how we chose to live and eat.


I do see when they say “no underlying conditions” that most of the pictures of the victims would be classified as living with class 1 Obesity (BMI 30-34.99). This disease is overlooked since they are only counting the weight related conditions.

This is one of the “underlying conditions” no one is talking about. This may actually put Obesity upfront and allow it to be recognized as a disease that it truly is. It’s not only genetic, there are so many other factors. Hormones play a huge role in weight regulation. White fat cells vs brown fat cells all contribute to different hormones imbalances. White fat cells also effect inflammation and an increase in pro inflammation cytokines. They also effect the immune system. They have found most people with covid are dying due to an over active immune system and what they are calling a cytokine storm leading to inflammation and acute infiltrates in the lungs. When you talk about obesity it is so much more than eat less and move more. Which that equation absolutely rings true, there is data to suggest that it’s much more complicated. The biggest issue with obesity is we blame the person for their eating habits, which shouldn’t be the case. It’s also much more difficult for a person who loses weight to keep it off due to the body’s normal response is to replenish the fat stores, to do this the bodies hunger hormone is increased after weight loss. So when a person loses weight, they are hungrier. It’s also why when a person is 220 pounds and loses 20 to go to 200 pounds, that person has to eat less calories in their diet to maintain that weight compared to someone who was already 200 points. There is a lot of interesting things coming from the field.

as a society we need to be less critical of patients living with obesity and develop and understanding of what they may be going through. My two cents


----------



## CPNY (Apr 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> the part I want to point out to starts at 19m 30s


We have to open back up soon I hope. Things are moving in the right direction we need to start adding more non essential businesses to the list of those that can open


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 8, 2020)

CPNY said:


> We have to open back up soon I hope. Things are moving in the right direction we need to start adding more non essential businesses to the list of those that can open


Now the real circus is going to begin. I am eating chocolate and thinking: it is food but is it essential? Wait until governors will have to decide what to open up and what to keep closed. Who goes bankrupt and who will survive the economic shock. Who will have a job and who will eat crackers.


----------



## CPNY (Apr 9, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Now the real circus is going to begin. I am eating chocolate and thinking: it is food but is it essential? Wait until governors will have to decide what to open up and what to keep closed. Who goes bankrupt and who will survive the economic shock. Who will have a job and who will eat crackers.


I agree. It’s a mess. This is where I wish we shut it all down together and open it back up together. NY will open soon I hope but most other states will still be shut down. Some are committed to being shut through mid June.... there will be more damage and lasting effects than this virus. The 2008 recession directly led to an increase of 10,000 suicides. I have already heard of two suicides this week. One closer to a co worker and the best friend of my close friend so It’s already happening. We have to start thinking about long term effects of this shut down. There are some European counties that have not shut down and never had these numbers.


----------



## CO skier (Apr 9, 2020)

CPNY said:


> NY will open soon I hope but most other states will still be shut down.


Would not the epicenter of the Covid-19 outbreak in the US,  New York City, be the last place that is re-opened?  Especially when the Hamptons. et. al., refugees repopulate the city?


----------



## CPNY (Apr 9, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Would not the epicenter of the Covid-19 outbreak in the US,  New York City, be the last place that is re-opened?  Especially when the Hamptons. et. al., refugees repopulate the city?


No, you can say we may be the first. If it goes in waves. All of those people who fled then come back will be responsible if it comes back and shuts us down again. This whole thing is a mess


----------



## "Roger" (Apr 9, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> ...
> Can you please also explain why Sweden is not doing worse than other European countries despite not closing shops, bars and restaurants?


"...Although much remains unknown, there is already enough data to suggest that this laissez-faire approach constitutes a dangerous gamble with human life. There are indications that Sweden is experiencing a higher death toll than its neighbors. While the Scandinavian countries reported their first fatalities at roughly the same time, Sweden as of April 8 had 687 fatalities, Denmark 218 and Norway 93. In per capita terms, Sweden is faring clearly worse than Norway and increasingly worse than Denmark. ..."
Washington Post Article


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 9, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> "...Although much remains unknown, there is already enough data to suggest that this laissez-faire approach constitutes a dangerous gamble with human life. There are indications that Sweden is experiencing a higher death toll than its neighbors. While the Scandinavian countries reported their first fatalities at roughly the same time, Sweden as of April 8 had 687 fatalities, Denmark 218 and Norway 93. In per capita terms, Sweden is faring clearly worse than Norway and increasingly worse than Denmark. ..."
> Washington Post Article


Remember, without strong mitigation, US was supposed to have 2 million deaths, now they are talking about 65k.  The mitigation and wrecking the economy, if we believe the models, are supposed to lower the number of deaths by 30 times.

Because of that, I strongly disagree with the article and your comment. I am expecting Washington post to correct their article ASAP 

Without strong mitigation the virus was supposed to spread exponentially so Sweden was supposed to go through an apocalyptic scenario but it just does not seem to happen. As a matter of fact, they have LESS cases per million than the United States, Belgium, Denmark and Norway, all with strong mitigation measures.
In terms of deaths they rank no 2 after Belgium. The methodologies to count the Corona deaths are so different that statistically the variations may not be significant at all.

Compiled from numbers found here





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					www.arcgis.com
				



this is as of today:


----------



## dayooper (Apr 9, 2020)

Thought I would share this article from NY Times on when experts say states should be able to open up. Seems relevant to the topic.

Link

If you don’t want to read it, here are the four criteria:


Hospitals have the ability to safely treat all patients without resorting to some sort of crisis care.
A state needs to, at least be able to test at least anyone who has symptoms
The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts
There must be a sustained reduction of cases for at least 14 days in a row. 
This all seems reasonable to me.


----------



## dayooper (Apr 9, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Remember, without strong mitigation, US was supposed to have 2 million deaths, now they are talking about 65k.  The mitigation and wrecking the economy, if we believe the models, are supposed to lower the number of deaths by 30 times.
> 
> Because of that, I strongly disagree with the article and your comment. I am expecting Washington post to correct their article ASAP
> 
> ...



My only question you have is how much better do Swedes practice the requested social distancing than the US? We sucked at the request part, do the Swedes comply? If they comply, then there is no need to limit the movement. 

Also, what is their medical structure like? Can they handle the influx of patients? This may not be an apples to apples comparison (although it could be, I’m not that learned on Swedish culture and medical copacity).

Well, I guess I had more than 1 question.


----------



## "Roger" (Apr 9, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> ... As a matter of fact, they have LESS cases per million than the United States, Belgium, Denmark and Norway, all with strong mitigation measures.
> In terms of deaths they rank no 2 after Belgium. The methodologies to count the Corona deaths are so different that statistically the variations may not be significant at all.
> 
> Compiled from numbers found here
> ...


So odd. The chart that you quote shows a far higher rate of deaths per million for Sweden that the two comparable _Scandinavian_ countries. Belgium, given its location next to France is in a completely different situation. Sweden does have a lower cases per million, but how much testing have they done? Without that information, the comparison on that line is useless.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 9, 2020)

dayooper said:


> Thought I would share this article from NY Times on when experts say states should be able to open up. Seems relevant to the topic.
> 
> Link
> 
> ...



3) much easier said than done. Currently there are 30,000 news cases daily in the US. Even if the number goes down to 10k, if those people had contact with 10 people in the previous week, they would have to be able to monitor and possibly isolate 100,000 new people daily. 


from the article

*The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.*
*A robust system of contact tracing and isolation is the only thing that can prevent an outbreak and a resulting lockdown from recurring. Every time an individual tests positive, the public health infrastructure needs to be able to determine whom that person has been in close contact with, find those people, and have them go into isolation or quarantine until it’s established they aren’t infected, too.

This will be a big challenge for most areas. Other countries have relied on cellphone tracking technology to determine whom people have been near. We don’t have anything like that ready, nor is it even clear we’d allow it. The United States also doesn’t have enough people working in public health in many areas to carry out this task.*


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 9, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> So odd. The chart that you quote shows a far higher rate of deaths per million for Sweden that the two comparable _Scandinavian_ countries. Belgium, given its location next to France is in a completely different situation. Sweden does have a lower cases per million, but how much testing have they done? Without that information, the comparison on that line is useless.


As I said, the numbers are so small that they are not statistically different. But if the apocalypse had hit them, they would have A LOT more cases than everyone else and that is not the case.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 9, 2020)

Infographic: Covid-19 Could Push Half A Billion People Into Poverty
					

This chart shows additional people in poverty due to a 20% income drop caused by a Covid-19 recession*.




					www.statista.com
				




*Covid-19 Could Push Half A Billion People Into Poverty*
by Niall McCarthy, 
Apr 9, 2020

Charity group Oxfam has warned that a recession caused by Covid-19 could push an extra half a billion people into poverty - 8 percent of the world's population - unless urgent action is taken. Conducted by King’s College London and the Australian National University, the research gauged the short-term impact of containing the coronavirus on global monetary poverty based on the World Bank poverty lines of $1.90, $3.20 and $5.50 a day. Global poverty levels would increase under all three scenarios for the first time since 1990 according to the analysis with up to a decade of progress lost globally. The impact is set to be even worse in some hard-hit parts of the world such as North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East where up to 30 years of progress could be wiped out.
The most serious scenario involves a 20 percent fall in income which would result in an additional 548 million people earning less than the World Bank poverty threshold of $5.50 per day. The United Nations has warned that $2.5 trillion is needed to support developing countries during the crisis and that nearly half of all Africa's jobs could be lost. G20 ministers, The World Bank and the IMF are set to meet to discuss debt relief for poorer countries next week. Oxfam has urged them to agree to a global rescue package and mobilize the sum cited by the UN to avert a global economic collapse. Possible measures to raise the money could include the immediate cancellation of $1 trillion in debt, the IMF issuing a further $1 trillion in Special Drawing Rights, an increase in aid flows to struggling countries as well as the adoption of emergency solidarity taxes.





Niall McCarthy
Data Journalist
niall.mccarthy@statista.com+49 (40) 284 841 562


----------



## dayooper (Apr 9, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> 3) much easier said than done. Currently there are 30,000 news cases daily in the US. Even if the number goes down to 10k, if those people had contact with 10 people in the previous week, they would have to be able to monitor and possibly isolate 100,000 new people daily.
> 
> 
> from the article
> ...



This, again, goes back to my previous point about Sweden (and other countries), does our society allow for the relaxed measures? Again, when asked to social distance on their own, many in our country ignored or even flaunted the request. Can our country handle practicing the measures that are needed without the rules in place? Recent data suggests that it can’t. 

This issue isn’t simple. There are so many moving parts that I can’t even fathom figuring it out upon my own. Yes, everything you are fixating on needs to be taken into account. So do the lives of those going into the hospital for any emergency. Many countries have helped out their citizens much more than we have, but, with our current political culture, that level of help isn’t happening. (I’m not saying it is or isn’t the right path, just stating that other countries are helping their citizens more). There are MANY avenues to take. Throw in the different combinations of solutions, it’s going to take awhile to figure out.

The point of my posting the article was to show that every expert doesn’t agree with what Dr. Fauci has been saying, that there is a path to normalcy (or whatever the new normalcy will become) before a vaccine is produced.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 9, 2020)

I have not heard of any strong plan to isolate those that are the most at risk: older, overweight or people with multiple health conditions. Why  would this not be better than keeping everything closed for the foreseeable future?


----------



## Old Hickory (Apr 9, 2020)

Here is the good news.  The U.S. has decided on a strategy that is completely opposite to the strategy in Sweden. When this is all over, we'll know which worked better/best.   

Sweden is also accepting that death will happen whereas Gov. Cuomo says even one life matters.    Which one is a reality-based statement?


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 9, 2020)

dayooper said:


> My only question you have is how much better do Swedes practice the requested social distancing than the US? We sucked at the request part, do the Swedes comply? If they comply, then there is no need to limit the movement.
> 
> Also, what is their medical structure like? Can they handle the influx of patients? This may not be an apples to apples comparison (although it could be, I’m not that learned on Swedish culture and medical copacity).
> 
> Well, I guess I had more than 1 question.



From what I have read about Sweden, they are not any better than us at social distancing. They are still eating in restaurants, still going to bars, still going to work, still walking/gathering in groups. If they were better at social distancing, I think they would voluntarily not be doing these things. In another month or so, we can probably better evaluate. I have read some stories that Swedish scientists think Sweden should lock down too but the government has resisted. It is still too soon to say if the Swedish experiment will work or not.


----------



## bluehende (Apr 9, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> Here is the good news.  The U.S. has decided on a strategy that is completely opposite to the strategy in Sweden. When this is all over, we'll know which worked better/best.
> 
> Sweden is also accepting that death will happen whereas Gov. Cuomo says even one life matters.    Which one is a reality-based statement?


  I am not sure the opposite strategy is correct.  They issued a request that my understanding of Swede culture was being followed.  While the degree is certainly different I do not believe complete opposite is true.  Our state issued a request too.  It was virtually ignored.  Even after the order was given things that could have stayed open had to be shut down because people refused to follow the rules.  At this point with a quick search I can find no country that is not at least trying social distancing.


----------



## Brett (Apr 9, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> Here is the good news.  The U.S. has decided on a strategy that is completely opposite to the strategy in Sweden. When this is all over, we'll know which worked better/best.
> 
> Sweden is also accepting that death will happen whereas Gov. Cuomo says even one life matters.    Which one is a reality-based statement?



might be good (or bad) news
I'm not sure Sweden is like the US but it will be interesting when this pandemic is over to compare country responses


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 9, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> Here is the good news.  The U.S. has decided on a strategy that is completely opposite to the strategy in Sweden. When this is all over, we'll know which worked better/best.


I think people are fooled by the markets. The Fed is buying trillions of dollars of securities (including stocks and junk bonds, not just government bonds) and this is giving people a false sense of financial comfort. Also, the markets look for any sign that the economy is going to restart sooner rather than later and this sentiment is prevalent for the moment. Nobody is explaining how a 10 trillion dollar Fed balance sheet is going to work or how Americans are not going to have to pay for the additional 4 trillion dollars in new debt through social and health care program cuts.

Strategy is a very big word and totally inappropriate in this case. The have reacted in a few days (if not hours) to data that was at best poor at the time, to models that had not proved anything yet (and possibly never will). I wish those models were open source so that more people could contribute and possibly correct (or at least understand) gross exaggerations (if any). Can you please explain me how the "strategy" works in terms of timing going forward? 

As we stand now, the president is saying that we should expect to open up the economy "soon" while Dr Fauci is sending coded messages that the kids may not go back to school before September. I have not seen one single model to predict that the number of new cases in September will be any better than it is today, especially if we have a second or third wave.


----------



## dayooper (Apr 9, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> From what I have read about Sweden, they are not any better than us at social distancing. They are still eating in restaurants, still going to bars, still going to work, still walking/gathering in groups. If they were better at social distancing, I think they would voluntarily not be doing these things. In another month or so, we can probably better evaluate. I have read some stories that Swedish scientists think Sweden should lock down too but the government has resisted. It is still too soon to say if the Swedish experiment will work or not.





bluehende said:


> I am not sure the opposite strategy is correct.  They issued a request that my understanding of Swede culture was being followed.  While the degree is certainly different I do not believe complete opposite is true.  Our state issued a request too.  It was virtually ignored.  Even after the order was given things that could have stayed open had to be shut down because people refused to follow the rules.  At this point with a quick search I can find no country that is not at least trying social distancing.



And this is why discussion on this topic is so difficult. Two different anecdotal  reports on how Swedes are dealing with the request from their government, both fitting a particular side of an argument. In today’s internet world, one can find just about any article, report or opinion piece that fits any argument, sometimes from the same source!

I think I’m bowing out of this particular topic. It seems to be falling like most political topics (not saying this is political) where the opposing sides have drawn lines, dug their heels in and refuse to give an inch to the other side. People have backed themselves into a corner and it’s become more about winning than learning and thinking about the other side.

@TravelTime I appreciate the original topic. I do think it’s something we need to discuss as a society in crisis.


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 9, 2020)

dayooper said:


> And this is why discussion on this topic is so difficult. Two different anecdotal  reports on how Swedes are dealing with the request from their government, both fitting a particular side of an argument. In today’s internet world, one can find just about any article, report or opinion piece that fits any argument, sometimes from the same source!
> 
> I think I’m bowing out of this particular topic. It seems to be falling like most political topics (not saying this is political) where the opposing sides have drawn lines, dug their heels in and refuse to give an inch to the other side. People have backed themselves into a corner and it’s become more about winning than learning and thinking about the other side.
> 
> @TravelTime I appreciate the original topic. I do think it’s something we need to discuss as a society in crisis.



Thanks for your observations. I noticed this too. Just to clarify, I am not locked into a position or have a need to win. I am open to the data and analysis that come out of this when all is said and done, knowing that it will still be skewed in the future to meet people's predisposed beliefs and need to be right. I think the health experts and government leaders will learn a lot about what works and what doesn't. Hopefully, they will learn enough to prevent another health pandemic in the future.


----------



## am1 (Apr 9, 2020)

When the cases pick up Sweden will not be able to stop it.  Just like New York now.  You could have 100% stay at home now and in 2 weeks there would still be more cases from people living in the same house as someone infected.  

I feel its impossible to isolate the vulnerable because of multi-generational homes and a lot of people do not even know they are vulnerable.  I do think on small scales it could work.  Take Bonnet Creek as an example.  No one in or out of the gates.  That includes workers/guests.  Laundry done on site.  Food gets brought in somehow and sold to the guests after being disinfected. 

One positive case noticed after everyone check in and everything goes to hell.  Or only activities based on tower # for a certain area/time of day.


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## PigsDad (Apr 9, 2020)

dayooper said:


> My only question you have is how much better do Swedes practice the requested social distancing than the US? We sucked at the request part, do the Swedes comply?


Can you post any kind of data to back up the claim that people in the US are any worse at complying to the SIP orders?  I certainly haven't seen anything published about that, and my personal observation is that people are very compliant.  Of course, you can find stories on those who have violated the orders, but that is the nature of news -- they look for the outliers because that sells news stories;  an article on people complying with the orders doesn't.  Now, if you are saying that our SIP orders are more lax than other places, that may be, but I don't see a compliance issue with the rules that have been put into place (in some places, much later than others).

Kurt


----------



## youppi (Apr 9, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> So odd. The chart that you quote shows a far higher rate of deaths per million for Sweden that the two comparable _Scandinavian_ countries. Belgium, given its location next to France is in a completely different situation. Sweden does have a lower cases per million, but how much testing have they done? Without that information, the comparison on that line is useless.











						Coronavirus Update (Live): 126,033,763 Cases and 2,766,299 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## TravelTime (Apr 9, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Can you post any kind of data to back up the claim that people in the US are any worse at complying to the SIP orders?  I certainly haven't seen anything published about that, and my personal observation is that people are very compliant.  Of course, you can find stories on those who have violated the orders, but that is the nature of news -- they look for the outliers because that sells news stories;  an article on people complying with the orders doesn't.  Now, if you are saying that our SIP orders are more lax than other places, that may be, but I don't see a compliance issue with the rules that have been put into place (in some places, much later than others).
> 
> Kurt



I agree with your observations that it seems to me that most people I know in the US are practicing social distancing and following the SIP/SAH orders. We started well before our State mandated it. Even on my Facebook, where I have hundreds of friends from all over, I have not heard of a single person not following the SIP/SAH orders.

In contrast, Sweden does not have a SIP/SAH order. They have asked people to practice social distancing while keeping their economy and borders open. They have asked the at risk populations and the elderly to quarantine. I have read many articles about Sweden and they are still eating in restaurants, going to work, walking in groups, etc. Even gyms are still open. Sweden says groups must be under 50 and they only changed that at the end of March. 50 is still a lot.

IMO, it does not look like effective social distancing. This is why people are calling it the Swedish Experiment. It is a very different approach than other countries. The health officials and scientific community in Sweden are asking the government to implement shut downs so they might do so in the future. I am trying to keep my description of this as non-political as possible. I am really interested in whether the Swedish approach works or not but it is too early to tell. In a few months, we can see what happens to their case counts and number of deaths relative to the size of their population and compared to other countries similar in size. It will be interesting to learn more.

Here is an interesting link using Google data that shows which countries acted more quickly and which lagged behind with social distancing. It looks like Sweden is a laggard. I have no idea if this data is accurate but it is interesting to see and compare.

------

Some Countries Are Taking Social Distancing More Seriously Than Others
In Italy, public places are a lot quieter than before the spread of coronavirus. In Sweden, they’re busier.

Click on link here


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 9, 2020)

dayooper said:


> And this is why discussion on this topic is so difficult. Two different anecdotal  reports on how Swedes are dealing with the request from their government, both fitting a particular side of an argument. In today’s internet world, one can find just about any article, report or opinion piece that fits any argument, sometimes from the same source!
> 
> I think I’m bowing out of this particular topic. It seems to be falling like most political topics (not saying this is political) where the opposing sides have drawn lines, dug their heels in and refuse to give an inch to the other side. People have backed themselves into a corner and it’s become more about winning than learning and thinking about the other side.
> 
> @TravelTime I appreciate the original topic. I do think it’s something we need to discuss as a society in crisis.


If I am one of those you are referring to I will say "touche". I am not doing it because I want to be right (I may be wrong and I hope I am wrong) but because I notice that many of the numbers and narratives we are given are not challenged and that does not make for strong public policy. I do not see this kind of discussion political. Over 100 countries have adopted similar measures, governments at all levels and of all political stripes walk in lockstep based on the same numbers. Our prime minister in Canada is in many ways diametrical opposite to the US president but the 2 countries have very similar measures.

People are affected by this in different ways . I may not be as affected as others financially but kids staying at home for the next 5-6 months makes me very nervous, they are at the age when they need school like air. We do not have any family around to count on. I am very fearful of the long term consequences in their development.

In many ways I do understand that older  may be more anxious than I am. However, even if the odds of us dying once contacted the virus are lower, the overall chances may actually be higher for a family where one or both have to go to work (at one point), that making the isolation almost impossible; by contrast someone who is retired can carry on the isolation virtually indefinitely if he chooses to . Also, if one or both parents were to die, the consequences to a younger family with kids may be exponentially higher.

For the record, I am practicing social distancing religiously and I do not advocate for breaking it in any way while we are at it.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 9, 2020)

__





						Meet the former NYT reporter who is challenging the coronavirus narrative
					

FoxNews.com




					www.foxnews.com
				




Meet the former NYT reporter who is challenging the coronavirus narrative By Adam Shaw


----------



## Brett (Apr 9, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...



so this former NYT reporter is scared and nervous and thinks weed is beneficial for everyone ...  GREAT !


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 9, 2020)

Brett said:


> so this former NYT reporter is scared and nervous and thinks weed is beneficial for everyone ...  GREAT !


A+ for the analysis


----------



## "Roger" (Apr 9, 2020)

As an alternative model to Sweden, one might look at Ohio.

Post article

I might also mention that California has a much larger population than NY, stepped in earlier than NY and has only a small number of cases compared to NY.


----------



## Brett (Apr 9, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> As an alternative model to Sweden, one might look at Ohio.
> 
> Post article
> 
> I might also mention that California has a much larger population than NY, stepped in earlier than NY and has only a small number of cases compared to NY.



early intervention is certainly better than late intervention
but differences between states should include more than population totals -  daily travel from Europe to US appears to be a factor


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## PigsDad (Apr 9, 2020)

Brett said:


> early intervention is certainly better than late intervention
> but differences between states should include more than population totals -  daily travel from Europe to US appears to be a factor


Also population density and reliance on public transportation.  Much easier to keep distance from each other when you are not forced into using subways or busses.

Kurt


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## davidvel (Apr 9, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Also population density and reliance on public transportation.  Much easier to keep distance from each other when you are not forced into using subways or busses.
> 
> Kurt


Yes. While I'd like to commend CA over NYC, CA is nowhere remotely like NYC in terms of population density, reliance on sardine can trains, buses, and crowded vertical buildings where people travel long distances to get to. CA had a natural advantage of spread out suburbs and lack of density on any scale equivalent to NYC.

That being said, I do think our early intervention in closing public gathering places (not so much workplaces), and focus on social distancing and personal sanitization, has helped significantly.


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## "Roger" (Apr 10, 2020)

Brett said:


> early intervention is certainly better than late intervention
> but differences between states should include more than population totals -  daily travel from Europe to US appears to be a factor


This is a fair comment. There are going to be other differences between all the states, even neighboring states with similar population size.

In line with that, I should not have thrown in the comment about California vs. New York. They are so, so different. What motivated me was being impressed with how California seems to have gotten a hold of their problem even after being one of the first two states to have been hit hard. That, however, is a different topic and my comment did not belong in my earlier post.

For those who haven't read the article itself, here are the numbers.

_"Through Thursday’s report, Ohio had 5,148 positive cases and 193 deaths from covid-19, according to the COVID Tracking Project, a small group of journalists and others amassing data from public sources. The state had performed more than 53,000 tests.

In Pennsylvania, there were 16,239 cases and 309 deaths after nearly twice as many tests. Illinois has seen 15,478 cases and 462 deaths, after testing 75,000 people. Michigan, which has a smaller population than those three states, had 20,346 cases and 959 deaths after conducting the same number of tests as Ohio.

Even neighboring Indiana, which has a little more than half of Ohio’s population, has 5,943 confirmed cases and 203 deaths, despite performing only 31,000 tests. "_

One can easily question the comparison with Illinois. While Ohio has (in order of size) Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, none of these cities compares with Chicago. Overall, however, looking at all the numbers, I find that they make a very plausible case for how major and very early intervention could have helped.


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Apr 10, 2020)

I recommend this website  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  it isn't political, simply statistical.  Of course it relies on numbers available through governmental and health organization information sources.  

The key line I look at is the deaths/million population.  There were earlier comments about Sweden.  Sweden has given just over 5000 tests/million and has 86 deaths/million.  The US has given just over 7500 tests/million and has 54 deaths/million.  I have been watching this site for a couple of weeks and the US test/million has gone up significantly, as has the number of recorded deaths.

Since Sweden, and in the US Florida have taken such a laissez faire approach to social distancing it will be important to watch their numbers.  There is a big push, particularly on the right, to move to drop shutdowns and open up again.  They point to the modeling that now shows fewer expected deaths as justification.  However they seem to ignore the impact of the shutdowns in changing the modeling.  

I hate to think it, but until there is a vaccine or a sure cure for people struck with this virus, we will have a long time to face this problem.


----------



## youppi (Apr 10, 2020)

I don't think that you can't pull conclusion on the strategy of Sweden vs the strategy of USA by looking on the data stats at this moment.
Just look at the data between the two neighbor countries, Canada and USA, where both countries have the same strategy except that Canada started earlier to see a big difference in number of total cases end deaths per million.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 10, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> I recommend this website  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  it isn't political, simply statistical.  Of course it relies on numbers available through governmental and health organization information sources.
> 
> The key line I look at is the deaths/million population.  There were earlier comments about Sweden.  Sweden has given just over 5000 tests/million and has 86 deaths/million.  The US has given just over 7500 tests/million and has 54 deaths/million.  I have been watching this site for a couple of weeks and the US test/million has gone up significantly, as has the number of recorded deaths.
> 
> ...



I caution everyone that reads  too much into relatively small differences, especially in the short term, to prove success or not of any country or state. In Canada we have had a relatively uniform approach and some differences are hard to explain.
British Columbia and especially Vancouver  has a lot of Asian population and a lot of travel from that area. Yet , the numbers do not reflect an intuitively increased risk. As a matter of fact Ontario is doing significantly worse per capita than BC. Quebec was doing very well at one point and then bang, more cases than everyone else.

Also, success will be judged on a number of factors, not just on deaths in week X. Because of the more relaxed measures, you would expect Sweden to have more cases at the beginning but maybe the length to be shorter. What matters more is the total number of cases in the next 6-9 months and even after.

In Sweden I am not seeing the feared Apocalypse.. But more importantly, what we have to see in the end is yes, total number of deaths from Coronavirus but also how an economy that is not shattered to pieces can treat people's health in the long run. How many people did not cross the obesity line by staying excessively at home for prolonged periods of time? Did the suicide rate went up in the next year? How many people are not losing their mental health  being pushed to the edge of a modern society? How many more people have to live on the streets due to prolonged economic problems? How many of those that support families in other countries still have the means to do it? How will those families do without the support?


----------



## youppi (Apr 10, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I caution everyone that reads  too much into relatively small differences, especially in the short term, to prove success or not of any country or state. In Canada we have had a relatively uniform approach and some differences are hard to explain.
> British Columbia and especially Vancouver  has a lot of Asian population and a lot of travel from that area. Yet , the numbers do not reflect an intuitively increased risk. As a matter of fact Ontario is doing significantly worse per capita than BC. Quebec was doing very well at one point and then bang, more cases than everyone else.
> 
> Also, success will be judged on a number of factors, not just on deaths in week X. Because of the more relaxed measures, you would expect Sweden to have more cases at the beginning but maybe the length to be shorter. What matters more is the total number of cases in the next 6-9 months and even after.
> ...


Yes Vancouver area in BC has a big community of Chinese but Toronto area in Ontario has a bigger community of Chinese and has also the biggest community of Italian and Iranian in Canada.
China, Italy and Iran were the 3 most affected countries at the beginning and a lot of people living in the Toronto area traveled there.
So, I'm not surprise that Ontario is doing worse that BC. 
One thing that affected the Quebec is their spring break happen the first week of March before the shutdown where the other Provinces spring break happen during or after the shutdown.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 10, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I caution everyone that reads  too much into relatively small differences, especially in the short term, to prove success or not of any country or state. In Canada we have had a relatively uniform approach and some differences are hard to explain.
> British Columbia and especially Vancouver  has a lot of Asian population and a lot of travel from that area. Yet , the numbers do not reflect an intuitively increased risk. As a matter of fact Ontario is doing significantly worse per capita than BC. Quebec was doing very well at one point and then bang, more cases than everyone else.
> 
> Also, success will be judged on a number of factors, not just on deaths in week X. Because of the more relaxed measures, you would expect Sweden to have more cases at the beginning but maybe the length to be shorter. What matters more is the total number of cases in the next 6-9 months and even after.
> ...


to add to my previous comment: 
The number of airline passengers is about 2.5 times higher in Toronto than in Montreal but
Montreal has 5600 cases, Toronto 1769


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 10, 2020)

youppi said:


> One thing that affected the Quebec is their spring break happen the first week of March before the shutdown where the other Provinces spring break happen during or after the shutdown.



If you look at the airline traffic, you will see that Toronto is higher than Montreal any month of the year, any day of the month so I am not buying the spring break argument


----------



## Talent312 (Apr 10, 2020)

"There three types of lies: Lies, damn lies and statistics."

A statistic in your favor does no good, if you're on the wrong side of the numbers.
Even if only one in 200 die from something, you could be the one.
<ducking>

.


----------



## DannyTS (Apr 10, 2020)

another physician talking about the Covid 19 death certificates


----------



## Monykalyn (Apr 11, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Smoking - 435,000 (do we ban all smoking?)
> Being overweight and obesity - 111,900 (do we lockdown overweight people, not let them eat?)
> Alcohol - 85,000 (back to prohibition?)


 which ironically-puts these people at higher risk of dying from a random illness as well.


CPNY said:


> I do see when they say “no underlying conditions” that most of the pictures of the victims would be classified as living with class 1 Obesity (BMI 30-34.99). This disease is overlooked since they are only counting the weight related conditions.
> 
> This is one of the “underlying conditions” no one is talking about. This may actually put Obesity upfront and allow it to be recognized as a disease that it truly is. It’s not only genetic, there are so many other factors. Hormones play a huge role in weight regulation. White fat cells vs brown fat cells all contribute to different hormones imbalances. White fat cells also effect inflammation and an increase in pro inflammation cytokines. They also effect the immune system. They have found most people with covid are dying due to an over active immune system and what they are calling a cytokine storm leading to inflammation and acute infiltrates in the lungs. When you talk about obesity it is so much more than eat less and move more. Which that equation absolutely rings true, there is data to suggest that it’s much more complicated. The biggest issue with obesity is we blame the person for their eating habits, which shouldn’t be the case. It’s also much more difficult for a person who loses weight to keep it off due to the body’s normal response is to replenish the fat stores, to do this the bodies hunger hormone is increased after weight loss. So when a person loses weight, they are hungrier. It’s also why when a person is 220 pounds and loses 20 to go to 200 pounds, that person has to eat less calories in their diet to maintain that weight compared to someone who was already 200 points. There is a lot of interesting things coming from the field.
> 
> as a society we need to be less critical of patients living with obesity and develop and understanding of what they may be going through. My two cents


 I am a RD and this has always been fascinating to me. We've suspected that there are certain "weight points" in your life that train your brain to keep that number of fat cells. Through childhood, teens and up until early twenties. And there is also some smallish evidence that once brain is trained for your specific number of fat cells your body will do whatever it can to maintain that. Like liposuction patients will regain the weight without a ton of hard work.   I too hope we treat obesity better. Socioeconomic status also plays a HUGE role in nutrition/obesity. Obesity is an under treated disease for sure.



Old Hickory said:


> Sweden is also accepting that death will happen whereas Gov. Cuomo says even one life matters. Which one is a reality-based statement?


 Both are reality based and both are true. However we have taken to the extreme in US that no one should ever die-doctors being sued when 101 year old grandad dies. We fear death instead of accepting it is the end of the journey and inevitable. Doesn't mean we should treat ourselves well and keep healthy etc, but how often do you hear MD's discussing quality vs quantity of life even for the 95 year old frail cancer riddled in high pain patient? Especially if that patients family wants "everything done" although the patient would rather be in comfort and live less months. I'm not sure a total hands off approach is great either.


Rjbeach2003 said:


> I hate to think it, but until there is a vaccine or a sure cure for people struck with this virus, we will have a long time to face this problem.


 Probably-but again- over 7500 people die in this country daily from all causes. We will learn to live with the risk and do what we can to mitigate it while enjoying life we can. Where that point is with this virus-isn't that what we should be asking? I am glad some are thinking of this.


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## pedro47 (Apr 11, 2020)

My questions are as follows 
1. How many tourists travel to Sweden this time of the year and how many Swedes travel outside of their country to Europe, the Far East,  Canada, Asia, or the United States?

2. How many airlines and cruise ships travels to Sweden between December and March ?

You can make numbers / figures tell a story positive or negative IMO.


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## geekette (Apr 11, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> We've suspected that there are certain "weight points" in your life that train your brain to keep that number of fat cells. Through childhood, teens and up until early twenties. And there is also some smallish evidence that once brain is trained for your specific number of fat cells your body will do whatever it can to maintain that.


I think this is me.  I was a kid athlete and through no heroic methods, just staying active, I have been about the same weight all of my adult life.   I think it matters that I was never pregnant.


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## CPNY (Apr 11, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> which ironically-puts these people at higher risk of dying from a random illness as well.
> I am a RD and this has always been fascinating to me. We've suspected that there are certain "weight points" in your life that train your brain to keep that number of fat cells. Through childhood, teens and up until early twenties. And there is also some smallish evidence that once brain is trained for your specific number of fat cells your body will do whatever it can to maintain that. Like liposuction patients will regain the weight without a ton of hard work.   I too hope we treat obesity better. Socioeconomic status also plays a HUGE role in nutrition/obesity. Obesity is an under treated disease for sure.



socioeconomic, physiology, psychology, genetics etc all play a role. Yes there is the metabolic adaptation and set point theory which is why we see patients who lose weight put it back on. Correct, patients who have liposuction lose x amount of fat cells and the bodies weight is lowered. there is a reason why liposuction patients gain weight in other places. You don’t regrow fat cells. The body needs to find new places to store the energy to get back to that set point. If you you never gained weight in your ankles and there are fat cells there, then that’s where the newly stored energy is going.......  I think of this this way. You have a closet in your bedroom along with a dresser with 6 drawers where you store your clothes. If you remove 4 drawers full of clothes, you will eventually gain new clothes with new styles as time goes on. However you lost the 4 drawers to store the clothes so you have to overstuff the existing two drawers and closet....  so fat cells that were never overstuffed before are now swelling.


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## Panina (Apr 11, 2020)

New Yorkers are dying as ambulance response times surge amid coronavirus
					

Citywide, the average ambulance response time to the most life-threatening cases — cardiac arrest and choking — rose from 7:37 in February to 9:24 last month. Responses to all emergenci…




					nypost.com


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## presley (Apr 13, 2020)

Some people are still under reacting. In Bakersfield, California this weekend, there was a big party that ended up with several people being shot. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/us/bakersfield-california-shooting-stay-at-home/index.html


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## JanT (Apr 13, 2020)

Leave it to Bakersfield, CA.  And I can say that because I spent about half my youth there.  It was a totally different town then but now?  Oh my!  Doesn't surprise me at all.



presley said:


> Some people are still under reacting. In Bakersfield, California this weekend, there was a big party that ended up with several people being shot. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/us/bakersfield-california-shooting-stay-at-home/index.html


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