# Shouldn't epidemiologists revisit the case of Sweden? Hasn't their approach actually worked?



## DannyTS (Jul 20, 2020)

Sweden is doing really well even if most of the media coverage would leave the impression that Sweden  has paid a steep price in human lives and that it has failed economically. Therefore the rest of the world was supposedly right to implement draconian lock-downs and other measures. Let's look at the data

1) Human lives
This is the graph that represents the C19 deaths in Sweden. The trend has been down since April and in the last week (July 12th-July 19th) the deaths have been zero or near zero.












						Bekräftade fall av covid-19 i Sverige — Folkhälsomyndigheten
					

Senaste uppdateringarna om utbrottet av coronavirussjukdom (covid-19). Sidan uppdateras dagligen med antal fall kl. 14:00 eller när statistiken är sammanställd.




					www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se
				





To visualize in relative terms the number of deaths/day, this is a comparison Sweden/NY





Let's compare Sweden with individual US states and other countries. In terms of deaths per 1,000,000 people, Sweden is actually number 17 after New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, District Of Columbia, Louisiana, Michigan, Illinois, Maryland, San Marino, Belgium, Andorra, UK, Spain, Italy. Interesting to note that DC and Rhode Island have *50% more deaths/1M population * and that New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts have *200%-300% more deaths/1M* pop than Sweden.








I know some will only want to compare Sweden to the Nordic countries but that does not fly due to early spring break in Sweden and other considerations that made Sweden start from a much higher number of infected people than their neighbors. Let's also note that unfortunately Pennsylvania will probably exceed Sweden soon in deaths/1M pop so Sweden will drop to number 18 on that list and that a lot of other countries should be on the chart doing worse than Sweden but they do not test much.

In any case, Sweden was supposed to be the funerary home of the planet but the data  does not support their critics. They have done better than many others without lock-downs and mandatory masks, with schools, restaurants, bars and businesses open. Could have they done even better? Sure, they also made mistakes along the way. Without those their situation would have been even better.

2) The economy
In Sweden the unemployment is up less than 2%  compared to an increase of 12% in New York, not to mention that there are states that are doing even worse.


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## TravelTime (Jul 20, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Sweden is doing really well even if most of the media coverage would leave the impression that Sweden  has paid a steep price in human lives and that has failed economically. Therefore the rest of the world was supposedly right to implement draconian lock-downs and other measures. Let's look a the data
> 
> 1) Human lives
> This is the graph that represents the C19 deaths in Sweden. The trend has been down since April and in the last week (July 12th-July 19th) the deaths have been zero or near zero.
> ...



I think we can compare Sweden to any other country. I do not see why people only want to compare Sweden to Nordic countries. We compare the USA to European countries and they are far away from us. I do not think it makes sense to limit who we compare based on geography only.


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## TravelTime (Jul 20, 2020)

In a Wall Street Journal article today, they reported:
Even in Sweden, which never instituted a lockdown and has suffered a high mortality rate, the number of new cases has plateaued as people observe distancing rules amid a ban of large-scale events.


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## Brett (Jul 20, 2020)

actually *Sweden has become the world's cautionary tale *- self inflicted wounds and no economic gains












https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=3


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## pedro47 (Jul 20, 2020)

The average temperature in Sweden is 71 and that is a lot lower than in the United States.


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## DannyTS (Jul 20, 2020)

Brett said:


> actually *Sweden has become the world's cautionary tale *- self inflicted wounds and no economic gains
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I already mentioned that some articles have left the impression that Sweden has done poorly but that is not the case IMO. So instead of quoting even more articles, let's discuss the merit of my post.


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## PigsDad (Jul 20, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> The average temperature in Sweden is 71 and that is a lot lower than in the United States.


What does temperature have to do with anything?

Kurt


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## pedro47 (Jul 20, 2020)

According to an expert in Washington,DC high summer temperatures was going to halt COVID-19.


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## Brett (Jul 20, 2020)

*The death toll from Sweden's outbreak is now the fifth-worst in the world, per capita. 
The country's mortality rate from the coronavirus is now 30% higher than that of the United States when adjusted for population size. *

*https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sweden-covid-coronavirus-deaths-make-sweden-example-of-how-not-to-deal-with-covid-19/*


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## SmithOp (Jul 20, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I already mentioned that some articles have left the impression that Sweden has done poorly but that is not the case IMO. So instead of quoting even more articles, let's discuss the merit of my post.



you know what they say about opinions, everybody has one and they all stink but mine.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## isisdave (Jul 20, 2020)

The reason that it's appropriate to compare the Nordic neighbors include 1) Sweden is geographically, environmentally, and anthropologically similar to them; 2) they all are rather rural, with a few very big, dense cities, 3) they in fact have similar school holidays: Sweden uses different weeks in March in different areas, Finland's and Denmark's were the week of Feb 17, Estonia's the following week; and 4) despite not having mandatory lockdown, they did have recommended sheltering fairly early on, and by local reports it was observed moderately well.

The facts are that Sweden's curve shape is good, and similar to its neighbors, but they had SEVEN times the infection and death rate.  Your arguments might hold water if that were TWICE the death rate, but it is SEVEN. Fifty percent of deaths occurred in elderly care facilities, and the 70+ age group accounted for almost 90 percent of all deaths. This really looks like "to hell with Granny," but I honestly believe that result was not anticipated. If Sweden could have controlled the disease in elder care facilities, and most of those deaths hadn't happened, it would have had rates a lot closer to those of its neighbors.

As far as economics goes, no one's crystal ball is working very well right now.  Here's an interesting article from the IMF regarding Sweden and its neighbors.

Why are we talking about this anyway? Is it to "prove" that masks and social distancing aren't important?  IMHO, the 140,000+ deaths in the US, and the shape of OUR curve, are more compelling than the shape of Sweden's.


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## Conan (Jul 20, 2020)

Here’s what my Google searching turned up:









						Has Sweden’s controversial covid-19 strategy been successful?
					

Sweden has stood out in the global pandemic by eschewing lockdown and seemingly aiming for herd immunity. Heba Habib reports that Sweden’s public was supportive of the strategy, but is now paying a heavy price.  For months Swedish public health authorities have defended their controversial...




					www.bmj.com
				






			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20039594v3.full.pdf
		










						Sweden coronavirus plan is a cruel mistake, skeptical experts say
					

Many Swedish people are happy with their country's unconventional strategy — but the nation has a vocal community of dissenters.



					www.businessinsider.com


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## PigsDad (Jul 20, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> According to an expert in Washington,DC high summer temperatures was going to halt COVID-19.


What expert was saying that?  Do you have any references?  The only people I heard saying that were politicians, not experts.

Kurt


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## tlwmkw (Jul 20, 2020)

Sweden also has a much lower rate of obesity than in this country and we know much more likely to result in hospitalization and death in the obese population ( risk is increased 12 times more the obese).

tlwmkw


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## Luanne (Jul 20, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> What expert was saying that?  Do you have any references?  The only people I heard saying that were politicians, not experts.
> 
> Kurt


I think Pedro should have put the word expert in quotes.  That would have made his statement much clearer.


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## pedro47 (Jul 20, 2020)

I’m LOL, at your post. Because, Everyone in DC are not expert’s.


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## PigsDad (Jul 20, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I think Pedro should have put the word expert in quotes.  That would have made his statement much clearer.


Ah, a little sarcasm emoji would have helped...

Kurt


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## Luanne (Jul 20, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Ah, a little sarcasm emoji would have helped...
> 
> Kurt


That would have worked also.  Which one is the right one for sarcasm?     Or something else?


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## nomoretslt (Jul 20, 2020)

Interesting info @DannyTS .  I’m of the opinion that those at risk (elderly, obese, diabetic, heart conditions) should remain at home and not risk going out.  Anyone visiting them or caring for them should take the necessary precautions around them.  This continuing shutdown in my state is severely depressing.  It is killing small businesses and where does tax revenue come from if people can’t work?  Those of us out and about should continue using common sense.  Stupid corona virus parties and massive protests where I don’t see much social distancing being practiced are contributing to the rise in cases.  The initial fear in the tri state area was overloading of hospitals.  Red Cross ship was docked in NYC and Javits  Center was turned into a care center.  Both were barely used.  I am of the thinking that the worst is over, and now we know what we are dealing with and how to be safe. Of course, I am not a doctor or an epidemiologist.  I’m just a knuckle dragging Neanderthal.


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## CPNY (Jul 20, 2020)

I remember our gov going over an animated map of the United States With images of tidal waves on every major city in the country early on in the pandemic. He was outlining that New York will be having the first wave compared to the rest of the country in each city would follow after. Each city began to shut down shortly after New York shut down without having large cases (excluding California and Seattle) Could it be possible that New York already reached herd immunity? Could this now be the delayed tidal waves the other cities are experiencing? Although New York still has not opened up some things like Gyms, New Yorkers have been congregating at parks on the street outside of bars and everyone saw the debacle at fire Island for weeks, even before phase 1 began. Since Many have said it’s “ok” to be at parks or outdoors back when NYC was still completely shut down, then how can we blame Florida for opening beaches too soon??

There have been mass protest and gatherings since the civil unrest that has taken place. New Yorkers have definitely not been 100% compliant with social distancing yet we are not experiencing any sort of increase in positive cases. just this past weekend there was thousands of non masked wearing people have been congregating on Steinway street in Astoria in queens. This isn’t an anomaly either. Let’s not forget testing was non existent for the first 3 months of the pandemic in NY. I’ve already been tested for COVID 3 times with a 4th scheduled for travel in the past 3 weeks. Let’s not forget about the complete inaccuracies being reported with testing, from false results to rumors of not only positive results for tests not taken but completely irresponsible reporting (from the very beginning).

As far as immunity there are some that suggest there may be T cell immunity which is not detectable through antibody testing. There also may be some pre-existing immunity which means this virus has been around for a long time that much we know, as research has suggested it being found in sewage water in the EU back from March 2019. What we are seeing now may not be as alarming as we think. We know more tests will yield more positive cases. I’m wondering how things would look if we kept the same measures for hospital admissions and testing now as it was in March. The picture would be completely different. I’m remaining optimistic yet maintaining social distancing


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## DannyTS (Jul 20, 2020)

@isisdave  Why should we _not_ talk about this? The lockdowns around the world sent millions of people below the poverty line, millions of people lost their jobs, many are depressed and do not see the light at the end of the tunnel, many are desperate and can cause problems the developed world has not seen in decades. Many can die globally due to health care they will no longer afford. We were told that it was the *only* solution and many argued it had to last even longer when it stopped. Some argue even now it should be reinstated if there is another spike. If anything, we should want to know *everything* about Sweden.


Now back to your main argument, if you look at countries in Europe for example, you will find extreme differences in *deaths/1 M pop* among neighbors even if all those  countries went into lock down. Geography does not seem to play a major role:
Belgium 845 vs  Luxembourg 177
Spain 608 vs Portugal 166
San Marino 1238 vs Italy 580
You can also find plenty of other states and countries that had very different rates even if they are neighbors and had similar lock down approaches. Density also did not seem to play the main role in Europe, Italy had the biggest problem in the North which is not the most dense. Also, Sweden is 88% urban.

You cannot compare Sweden just to the neighbors  but  if that is what you want you will  see that when the lockdown started to have an influence in the Nordic countries,  Sweden already had a lot more deaths per capita.

According to the CDC, there is a minimum  4 week delay (without complications) from contact to the reporting of a death




If you look when the lockdowns started: Norway - March 12th, Denmark - March 13th, Finland - March 16th you will conclude that  the lockdowns began to have an effect (again according to the CDC estimates) from April 15 forward (in red) . But that is the peak of deaths for Sweden and the other countries and it has gone downwards ever since which proves that the lack of lockdown has not been harmful in their case, *they just started from a much worse place*.














@tlwmkw higher death rates have not been observed in the United States so there is no evidence that US is more at risk as a country, maybe the great health care is a mitigating factor. Most deaths are still in the oldest population and I am not sure that part of the population is necessarily more obese.


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## Brett (Jul 20, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> @isisdave  Why should we _not_ talk about this? The lockdowns around the world sent millions of people below the poverty line, millions of people lost their jobs, many are depressed and do not see the light of the tunnel, many are desperate and can cause problems the developed world has not seen in decades. Many can die globally due to health care they will no longer afford. We were told that it was the *only* solution and many argued it had to last even longer when it stopped. Some argue even now it should be reinstated if there is another spike. If anything, we should want to know *everything* about Sweden.
> 
> 
> Now back to your main argument, if you look at countries in Europe for example, you will find extreme differences in *deaths/1 M pop* among neighbors even if all those  countries went into lock down. Geography does not seem to play a major role:
> ...




starting from a "much worse place" is no excuse !

*Skeptical experts in Sweden say its decision to have no lockdown is a terrible mistake
 that no other nation should copy*

https://www.businessinsider.com/swe...ruel-mistake-skeptical-experts-say-2020-5?amp


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## DannyTS (Jul 20, 2020)

Brett said:


> starting from a "much worse place" is no excuse !
> 
> *Skeptical experts in Sweden say its decision to have no lockdown is a terrible mistake
> that no other nation should copy*
> ...


We all know how Sweden has been treated by the media and this is why I am trying to see if there is actually another angle that has been completely ignored. You can post an article or 100, besides showing no real contribution to this thread, you are just proving my point.


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## geekette (Jul 20, 2020)

...We were told that it was the *only* solution  ...

I don't know who told you that, but I am quite interested in who said it.   I haven't heard anyone call it a solution.  Our spread was too fast, the virus was out of control.  Like is happening again.  

We saw country after country lockdown and emerge better.  We are not emerging better, I might have been one arguing for longer, or later instantiation, depending on where.  It was mentioned that lockdowns went in lockstep, which was a mistake, as it allowed the 'we don't have a problem here' to take hold in county after county in the mostly unaffected areas.   Once the wave hit their shores, they had already opened and people already thought it was over.   I personally think that is why we are continuing to see high spread.

Stopping the virus is about stopping transmission.   Until a vaccine, the best we can do is mask and stay away from each other.    Not a "solution", but the tools we have for managing the epidemic.  

I would be much more depressed battling this in the hospital than any economic damage.  If I don't live, who cares that I was employed when I died?  I'm not going to be lying there thinking, dang, I forgot to email Sheila the RFP....    By the way, there is likely to be significant damage to the finances from getting the darned virus.   We won't know for a very long time how many years of physical problems will persist, and how many of those need doctor treatment.  

I would be more scared living with blood clots than in going bk.  just me, and I stipulate to hardly being a mainstream thinker.


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## Brett (Jul 20, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> We all know how Sweden has been treated by the media and this is why I am trying to see if there is actually another angle that has been completely ignored. You can post an article or 100, besides showing no real contribution to this thread, you are just proving my point.



and your point is .....  freedom?
or  a certain "politician" doesn't like wearing masks ?
or (my guess) you don't like * "*mainstream*"* media





*https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/07/20/sweden-coronavirus-covid-19-economic-pain-black-pkg-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn*


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## DannyTS (Jul 20, 2020)

geekette said:


> ...We were told that it was the *only* solution  ...
> 
> I don't know who told you that, but I am quite interested in who said it.   I haven't heard anyone call it a solution.  Our spread was too fast, the virus was out of control.  Like is happening again.
> 
> ...


It is not about you and me or so I hope. Ironically and unexpectedly I have had a good year, one of the best of the last few. You have your faith in your hands, you can stay home and isolate as much as you want and you will NOT catch the virus. You have a choice.

The poverty line is at $1.90 a day. If you have to live with $1 a day instead of $2 a day it does not mean you have to replace steak with chicken for dinner. It means you used to have rice  and now you have nothing. They do not have a choice like you or I do. They feed their families or die. I understand that blood clots are not fun but hunger can't be fun either.


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## CPNY (Jul 20, 2020)

Brett said:


> and your point is .....  freedom?
> or  a certain "politician" doesn't like wearing masks ?
> or (my guess) you don't like * "*mainstream*"* media
> 
> ...


You should really pay for membership and support tug


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## geekette (Jul 20, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> It is not about you and me or so I hope. Ironically and unexpectedly I have had a good year, one of the best of the last few. You have your faith in your hands, you can stay home and isolate as much as you want and you will NOT catch the virus. You have a choice.
> 
> The poverty line is at $1.90 a day. If you have to live with $1 a day instead of $2 a day it does not mean you have to replace steak with chicken for dinner. It means you used to have rice  and now you have nothing. They do not have a choice like you or I do. They feed their families or die. I understand that blood clots are not fun but hunger can't be fun either.


Which is why there are food banks and many many nutrition programs and more people than ever donating.  

the pandemic is mostly not at all about me.  I lost income like many others.   Caused me to grow more food to help my neighbors.   I would prefer to assist in getting food to the needy than forcing them to virus exposure.  It's a matter of your money or your life.   One could choose money, but I choose life.  If the breadwinner dies of COVIN, the rest of family infected but alive, how does that help the family eat?


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## DannyTS (Jul 20, 2020)

geekette said:


> Which is why there are food banks and many many nutrition programs and more people than ever donating.
> 
> the pandemic is mostly not at all about me.  I lost income like many others.   Caused me to grow more food to help my neighbors.   I would prefer to assist in getting food to the needy than forcing them to virus exposure.  It's a matter of your money or your life.   One could choose money, but I choose life.  If the breadwinner dies of COVIN, the rest of family infected but alive, how does that help the family eat?


For someone in his 30's with a family to feed, the poverty is a much bigger health risk than Covid. Again, he (or she) does not have a choice like you and I.

Covid will push 71 million people under the poverty line and I do not think that those who go from $2.20 to $2 are that much better off so the situation is getting worse for a lot more. People cross the poverty line because they only have those resources at their disposal. While your efforts (and others) are laudable and they may help us feel better, they help few and don't resolve much in the real life.









						Updated estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty
					

Using the newly launched growth forecasts from the Global Economic Prospects , we can update the estimate of the pandemic on global poverty. The new growth forecasts contain two scenarios—baseline and downside—allowing us to explore...




					blogs.worldbank.org


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## Chrispee (Jul 20, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> For someone in his 30's with a family to feed, the poverty is a much bigger health risk than Covid. Again, he (or she) does not have a choice like you and I.
> 
> Covid will push 71 million people under thepoverty line and I do not thin that those that go from $2.20 to $2 are that much better off so the situation is getting worse for a lot more.



I agree with your assessment of the precarious position many North Americans are in with regards to the poverty line.

Why aren’t we having more discussions on TUG regarding the root issues with regards to why such a large percentage of the population is hovering the line; education and wage inequality.


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## DannyTS (Jul 20, 2020)

Chrispee said:


> I agree with your assessment of the precarious position many North Americans are in with regards to the poverty line.
> 
> Why aren’t we having more discussions on TUG regarding the root issues with regards to why such a large percentage of the population is hovering the line; education and wage inequality.


You are making a valid point and you can start another thread about that, I will be happy to contribute.

My previous comment was not just about US


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## geekette (Jul 20, 2020)

I don't get it, Danny.  Are you saying that no countries, and especially the poorest countries, should have taken any measures to stop the spread, and just let sickness and death come to everyone, poor or not?  And that was somehow going to be "better"?    

I definitely did not see any mention of solution-by-shutdown around the world.  Each country handled their pandemic their way.   Everyone had WHO and could pay attention or not.  

Once you get into who has a choice to do what, that's a tough hand to play on a global basis.  I am not understanding how you are weaving poverty into the Swedish experiment to extrapolate to the world, then apparently arguing that shut downs should not have occurred anywhere, but some authority somewhere said it was the solution?    Getting baffled.


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## CPNY (Jul 20, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> You have your faith in your hands, you can stay home and isolate as much as you want and you will NOT catch the virus. You have a choice.


Not that accurate. On the tail end of NY wave before herd immunity may have been achieved, the cases were coming from people staying at home.


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## DannyTS (Jul 20, 2020)

geekette said:


> I don't get it, Danny.  Are you saying that no countries, and especially the poorest countries, should have taken any measures to stop the spread, and just let sickness and death come to everyone, poor or not?  And that was somehow going to be "better"?
> 
> I definitely did not see any mention of solution-by-shutdown around the world.  Each country handled their pandemic their way.   Everyone had WHO and could pay attention or not.
> 
> Once you get into who has a choice to do what, that's a tough hand to play on a global basis.  I am not understanding how you are weaving poverty into the Swedish experiment to extrapolate to the world, then apparently arguing that shut downs should not have occurred anywhere, but some authority somewhere said it was the solution?    Getting baffled.


What US did had consequences around the world. My point is that there might have been another way and Sweden is showing that. There are lessons to be learned for future pandemics, what is past is past, we cannot turn back the time. I am not sure why you call it the Swedish experiment. The whole world has been an experiment, everybody looked at the same set of data and models (many proved erroneous) and chose one way or another. There was nothing tried, tested and true in what US or Canada or others have done.


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## Wyominguy (Jul 20, 2020)

Here is a recent chart from the CDC on how the death rate has plummeted since April in the US.


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## CPNY (Jul 20, 2020)

Wyominguy said:


> Here is a recent chart from the CDC on how the death rate has plummeted since April in the US.View attachment 23838


Sounds like NY did a terrible job to me.


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## Brett (Jul 21, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> What US did had consequences around the world. My point is that there might have been another way and Sweden is showing that. There are lessons to be learned for future pandemics, what is past is past, we cannot turn back the time. I am not sure why you call it the Swedish experiment. The whole world has been an experiment, everybody looked at the same set of data and models (many proved erroneous) and chose one way or another. There was nothing tried, tested and true in what US or Canada or others have done.



sure, there are plenty of ways to handle viruses





https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...munity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/


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## artringwald (Jul 21, 2020)

If you sort by Deaths per 1M population, Sweden ranks #7 and the USA is #10 out of 215 countries.


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## DannyTS (Jul 21, 2020)

@artringwald You can certainly compare  Panama, Ecuador, Peru, Sint Martin as well as  Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Andora, San Marino and other  _individual _European countries with  the United States and with Sweden if you  believe that it will give you the best image of what is happening.

My view is that it is worth looking at the _individual_ states in the US,  the _individual _European countries and at the rest of the world because the United States is not a monolith when it comes to managing this pandemic, not to mention the size of the population and the territory.


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## cman (Jul 21, 2020)

As @artringwald pointed out in his post, Sweden is #7 in deaths/million out of more than 200 countries. If you were to compare them to the individual states, they'd rank #17 in deaths per million. I don't see how you can call that a success.


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## Brett (Jul 21, 2020)

cman said:


> As @artringwald pointed out in his post, Sweden is #7 in deaths/million out of more than 200 countries. If you were to compare them to the individual states, they'd rank #17 in deaths per million. I don't see how you can call that a success.




not a "success"

*https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=3*


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## DannyTS (Jul 21, 2020)

cman said:


> As @artringwald pointed out in his post, Sweden is #7 in deaths/million *out of more than 200 countries*. If you were to compare them to the individual states, they'd rank #17 in deaths per million. I don't see how you can call that a success.


Iran for example is number 28 on that list  with 14,634 deaths and *278,827* total infected people. The Iranian officials estimate that *25 million* people have been infected and not 278k . WTH! I do not know if the real number is 25 millions or 20 or 10 but I do not think anyone can say with a straight face that 278,827 is the actual number.
If I understand correctly  you trust the reported numbers from countries like  Burundi, Bhutan, Togo, Mexico, Brasil, Kyrgyzstan, Zimbabwe just to name a few and for that reason you can rank success among the 200 countries on that list.

Among the countries you can trust, Sweden is doing pretty well especially since we were let to believe that they were going to be number one on that list without a lockdown. The number of deaths in Sweden is 5% of what it should have been based on the initial models.

Also let's acknowledge that the last chapter of the virus has not been written yet. The deaths in Sweden may have been close to zero in the last week but you cannot say the same about the rest of the world.









						Iran estimates it has 25 million coronavirus infections
					

Iran's president on Saturday estimated as many as 25 million Iranians could have been infected with the coronavirus since the outbreak's beginning, as he urged the public to take the pandemic seriously, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.




					www.ctvnews.ca


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## geekette (Jul 21, 2020)

....Also let's acknowledge that the last chapter of the virus has not been written yet. 

I don't think we've made it to the middle page at this point.  "Last Chapter End Date" would be a fun thing to wager on, except, I'm not sure we'll know it when it shows up, we'd know in hindsight.  

I will say April 1, 2025 for last known case resolved.


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## cman (Jul 21, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Iran for example is number 28 on that list  with 14,634 deaths and *278,827* total infected people. The Iranian officials estimate that *25 million* people have been infected and not 278k . WTH! I do not know if the real number is 25 millions or 20 or 10 but I do not think anyone can say with a straight face that 278,827 is the actual number.
> If I understand correctly  you trust the reported numbers from countries like  Burundi, Bhutan, Togo, Mexico, Brasil, Kyrgyzstan, Zimbabwe just to name a few and for that reason you can rank success among the 200 countries on that list.
> 
> Among the countries you can trust, Sweden is doing pretty well especially since we were let to believe that they were going to be number one on that list without a lockdown. The number of deaths in Sweden is 5% of what it should have been based on the initial models.
> ...


Not sure how we got on the subject of Iran. I'm just trying to understand what metric you're using that leads you to believe the Swedish approach is successful. Is it death rate? Infection rate? What?

It seems that the general consensus of most epidemiologist is that Sweden's approach was not successful. They decimated their vulnerable population and are now the pariahs of Europe. Their Nordic neighbors are now open to the rest of Europe but they don't allow Swedes in their borders.


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## DannyTS (Jul 21, 2020)

cman said:


> Not sure how we got on the subject of Iran.* I'm just trying to understand what metric you're using* that leads you to believe the Swedish approach is successful. Is it death rate? Infection rate? What?
> 
> It seems that the general consensus of most epidemiologist is that Sweden's approach was not successful. They *decimated* their vulnerable population and are now the pariahs of Europe. Their Nordic neighbors are now open to the rest of Europe but they don't allow Swedes in their borders.


You will understand if you (re)read the OP.
Concerning "*decimating"* the vulnerable population, I do not know if you realize how far fetched that statement is especially given that* Sweden* has a number of deaths per 1 million people that is *3 times lower* than *New York* and *New Jersey*. Are you saying that there are no more old people left in New York?


----------



## cman (Jul 21, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> You will understand if you (re)read the OP.
> Concerning "*decimating"* the vulnerable population, I do not know if you realize how far fetched that statement is especially given that* Sweden* has a number of deaths per 1 million people that is *3 times lower* than *New York* and *New Jersey*. Are you saying that there are no more old people left in New York?


New York and New Jersey failed to protect their vulnerable populations also. Primarily those in nursing homes. 

Now back to my earlier question. What metric are you using to reach the conclusion that Sweden's approach was successful?


----------



## grupp (Jul 21, 2020)

The reality is the Pandemic is not over and it is still too soon judge what the best course of action and whether or not this was successful, regardless of the current consensus of the epidemiologist. Sweden did admit that they didn't not do a very good job protecting the most vulnerable at the start of the pandemic, which greatly increased their death toll. I also read and interview form Swedish epidemiologist responsible for the plan and he expected the death total to be about the same in end, but in with their approach some would die sooner than following another plan. So, take that as you want, but as pointed out their daily death toll has greatly decreased. 

I do think it strange the world has basically shunned them for taking a different approach whether it is successful or not. There seems to be a lot of people hoping they fail But that seems to be way things are now days if someone has a different opinion they are attached.

What we do know is that the all the "experts" have been wrong more than they have been right and the models used of not accurately predicted anything. Also, (sorry for the political opinion) the leaders on either side in our country don't give a damn about us and are only concerned about elections and having power.  Best thing is that hopefully  we can learn from this the next time we have a pandemic things will be handled better.


----------



## artringwald (Jul 21, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> @artringwald You can certainly compare  Panama, Ecuador, Peru, Sint Martin as well as  Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Andora, San Marino and other  _individual _European countries with  the United States and with Sweden if you  believe that it will give you the best image of what is happening.
> 
> My view is that it is worth looking at the _individual_ states in the US,  the _individual _European countries and at the rest of the world because the United States is not a monolith when it comes to managing this pandemic, not to mention the size of the population and the territory.


I agree that comparing all the countries in the world is hard to do because of the amount of testing they do and how well they report the data. I remember when all this started that the whole point of shutting things down was to keep the medical system from getting overloaded. I've been tracking the COVID-19 hospital cases in my state since late March, and it looks like they've been doing a good job at opening up slowly to prevent a new peak.





It's really sad that the handling of the pandemic has become such a political issue. I wish that medical care would be balanced with economic impact, and not all one or all the other.


----------



## geekette (Jul 21, 2020)

cman said:


> New York and New Jersey failed to protect their vulnerable populations also. Primarily those in nursing homes.
> 
> Now back to my earlier question. What metric are you using to reach the conclusion that Sweden's approach was successful?


Those are not the only 2 states with a large share of deaths in the confined settings.   It has been weeks since I looked for that specific item, but we were running 30% of deaths for age 80+ overall, not senior homes only.  But, there was an awful stretch of weeks in March and April when local news reported outbreak after outbreak in these types of places in our small towns.   

My overall take away on how this went, was, failure to learn quickly.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 21, 2020)

cman said:


> New York and New Jersey failed to protect their vulnerable populations also. Primarily those in nursing homes.
> 
> Now back to my earlier question. What metric are you using to reach the conclusion that Sweden's approach was successful?


I have used from the very beginning deaths/ 1 million people.


Let's look at  Pennsylvania if you do not like to compare with the other 10 states that have been doing (a lot ) worse than Sweden in terms of deaths/1 M pop.
10 people died in Sweden in the last 10 days, 135 in Pennsylvania. Both have *virtually the same number of deaths/1M pop *but Pennsylvania has been adding a lot more new cases and deaths lately so it will probably be in a much worse place in few weeks.  According to you the epidemiologists consider Sweden a failure but CDC has praised Pennsylvania for doing "the right thing".  Why the double standard?


----------



## CPNY (Jul 21, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Iran for example is number 28 on that list  with 14,634 deaths and *278,827* total infected people. The Iranian officials estimate that *25 million* people have been infected and not 278k . WTH! I do not know if the real number is 25 millions or 20 or 10 but I do not think anyone can say with a straight face that 278,827 is the actual number.
> If I understand correctly  you trust the reported numbers from countries like  Burundi, Bhutan, Togo, Mexico, Brasil, Kyrgyzstan, Zimbabwe just to name a few and for that reason you can rank success among the 200 countries on that list.
> 
> Among the countries you can trust, Sweden is doing pretty well especially since we were let to believe that they were going to be number one on that list without a lockdown. The number of deaths in Sweden is 5% of what it should have been based on the initial models.
> ...


I’m confused, wasn’t the media showing cell phone videos of body bags piled up in Iran??? I meannnn that couldn’t have been propaganda. Everyone who died with COVID didn’t die from COVID. Yet, that’s not what the count suggests.


----------



## Roger830 (Jul 21, 2020)

Swedish economy was the least harmed in Europe 









						Sweden had one of the most relaxed COVID-19 lockdowns in the world. There's growing evidence that it helped it weather 2020's economic storm better than anywhere else.
					

Though Sweden was not immune to the pandemic's economic impact, it was the only major economy to grow in the first quarter of the year.




					markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Jul 21, 2020)

Just checked today to compare Sweden's death rate to US. Even though many Governors want to act like Sweden and do so, if our death rate as a nation was the same as Sweden's we would have 184,000+ plus deaths today or nearly 30% higher.  The governors of FL. GA, TX and AZ want to catch up with Sweden though.
The Governor of CA has admitted that he okayed opening too soon, thus CA's rise in cases.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 21, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> Just checked today to compare Sweden's death rate to US. Even though many Governors want to act like Sweden and do so, if our death rate as a nation was the same as Sweden's we would have 184,000+ plus deaths today or nearly 30% higher.  The governors of FL. GA, TX and AZ want to catch up with Sweden though.
> The Governor of CA has admitted that he okayed opening too soon, thus CA's rise in cases.



Glad to talk about US as a whole if you do not like to compare with individual states. 

In the last two weeks Sweden added 4,642 new cases (*trending down*) and  US 860,409 (*trending up*). 
In the last two weeks there have been 66 deaths  in Sweden (*trending down*),   9,895 deaths in the United States (*trending up*) . 

It ain't over till it's over. At this pace, there is no reason to believe that US is not going to get to 184,000 deaths soon. The projections show it will be there between August 24th - September 27th but I hope they are wrong.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 22, 2020)

isisdave said:


> Why are we talking about this anyway? *Is it to "prove" that masks and social distancing aren't important? *




My point is that we have at our disposal a number of tools: isolating the vulnerable, social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks etc. but also closing schools, retail and other businesses, borders and quarantine, social tracing and so on. Some of these tools have little to no social, economic and legal downside (social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks etc) but they may be highly effective. The other measures can have grave consequences and looking at what Sweden has done may not be such a terrible idea.


----------



## Brett (Jul 22, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> My point is that we have at our disposal a number of tools like: isolate the vulnerable, social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks and others but also closing schools, retail and other businesses, borders and quarantine, social tracing etc. Some of these tools have little to no social, economic and legal downsides (social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks etc) but they may be highly effective. The other measures can have grave consequences and looking at what Sweden has done may not be such a terrible idea.



right, a socialist welfare state teaches America how to "do it right"

*July 22, 2020*





*https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-projections/*


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 22, 2020)

Brett said:


> right, a socialist welfare state teaches America how to "do it right"


I do not know Brett, when I read the news about Sweden and compare with the actual data I see two different worlds. If you want to contribute to this thread you have to do a little better than showing you have access to Google search. You are only making my point that there has not been a serious discussion about this.

deaths/day in Sweden:










						Experience
					






					experience.arcgis.com


----------



## jabberwocky (Jul 22, 2020)

It looks like Sweden is pushing the envelope again...would be interesting to see if those who have recovered from diagnosed cases of Covid would now be exempt quarantine restrictions. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...immunity-can-last-half-a-year-after-infection

“Sweden’s top health authority says people who have had the novel coronavirus are likely to be immune for at least six months after being infected, whether they’ve developed antibodies or not.

In new guidance published on Tuesday, the Swedish Public Health Agency said it’s now considered safe for individuals who’ve been infected to come into contact with people in high-risk groups.

‘We don’t see cases of people falling ill twice from Covid-19,’ state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said during a press conference in Stockholm. ‘Hence, our assessment is that if you do get Covid-19 you are immune, even if you don’t develop antibodies.’”


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Jul 22, 2020)

Wyoming Guy. Curious where you got that chart.  In the last three days there have been 2000+ deaths in the US.  That chart seems to show near zero deaths in that week.  More information please


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 22, 2020)

It is possible that New York City, Sweden may have reached herd immunity already. Fingers crossed

PUBLIC HEALTH INFORMATION
*Herd Immunity Threshold Against COVID-19 May Be Lower Than Believed: Researchers*









						Herd Immunity Threshold Against COVID-19 May Be Lower Than Believed: Researchers
					

Herd immunity to COVID-19, the disease caused by the CCP virus, could be achieved with fewer people being infected than previously estimated.




					www.theepochtimes.com


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 22, 2020)

This is the actual study, not peer reviewed yet

*Abstract 
It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 is in excess of 50% for any epidemiological setting. Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses. The drop in HIT is proportional to the fraction of the population resistant only when that fraction is effectively segregated from the general population; however, when mixing is random, the drop in HIT is more precipitous. Significant reductions in expected mortality can also be observed in settings where a fraction of the population is resistant to infection. These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave. *



			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf


----------



## jabberwocky (Jul 22, 2020)

And my guess is that we’re getting close to herd immunity in many other US states as well. My guess is that we will see peaks in August with numbers starting to decline into the fall. 

I know this is completely unscientific, but if we take the roughly 400k cases in Florida and use the estimate that there are about 10X the cases out there that have not been detected then you have around 4M cases.  That is pretty close to 20% of Florida’s population.  It will be interesting to see if things start to plateau there.


----------



## Conan (Jul 23, 2020)

Bullet-points from the article cited below:
*What went well*
Mental health
Ramping up ICU beds

*What went OK*
Daily briefings ... for a while
An engaged and compliant public 
The economy

*What didn’t go so well*
PPE and availability of tests
Policy around masks 
The vulnerable elderly population 
Achieving herd immunity
Lack of tracking and data collection in schools



			https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/how-sweden-fought-coronavirus-and-what-went-wrong.html


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 23, 2020)

Conan said:


> Bullet-points from the article cited below:
> *What went well*
> Mental health
> Ramping up ICU beds
> ...



If you look at the post #60, they may have achieved herd immunity already. Time will tell, fingers crossed.  The first 3 points of what went wrong can probably be made about 90% of the planet.

In the last 2 days they did not report any deaths and "only" 15 in the last week. For comparison, California had 684 in the last 7 days or 11.69* times *more deaths per 1 M population than Sweden. 










						Experience
					






					experience.arcgis.com


----------



## Brett (Jul 23, 2020)

Conan said:


> Bullet-points from the article cited below:
> *What went well*
> Mental health
> Ramping up ICU beds
> ...



The US now has daily coronavirus briefings (again !)

And the US stock market has _*Amazon*_ and _*Tesla*_ !


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 24, 2020)

In terms of deaths/ 1 million people,  Sweden is now number 18. Delaware had a spectacular advancement to the 15th place. Pennsylvania will probably exceed Sweden next week. This is a TUG exclusive! We are getting ready for Bret to post another article that Sweden is the worst in the world  , that is OK.


----------



## Brett (Jul 24, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In terms of deaths/ 1 million people,  Sweden is now number 18. Delaware had a spectacular advancement to the 15th place. Pennsylvania will probably exceed Sweden next week. This is a TUG exclusive! We are getting ready for Bret to post another article that Sweden is the worst in the world  , that is OK.
> 
> View attachment 23976



yes -  Danny with a fixation on the socialist state Sweden      ... where people respect the federal government ....


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 24, 2020)

You can call it fixation if you will. What they did was the only honest path because they did not go into a lockdown without telling people how they would get out of the lockdown and that they would be back to square one soon after they ended it. Their way also had the most chances of long term success because it relied on the cooperation of the public rather than trying to coerce them for a long period of time.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 25, 2020)

deleted


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## grupp (Jul 29, 2020)

I thought this was a well balance article on what is currently going on in Sweden, doesn't really get into the debate on the merits of their approach to the virus. I don't believe you can draw any conclusions yet, but does give some possibly reasons for the downturn.  It does seem that the articles bashing their approach have dried up some in the last few weeks. But maybe that is because things have gone so wrong in a few areas the US, which is more interesting and has drawn attention away from them.  

I don't know if their approach was better than ours, but do find interesting to see how it works out for them. Whether it was right or wrong they chose a path that was different than the rest of the world and stuck to it despite criticism from all sides. 



			https://www.thelocal.se/20200724/why-are-swedens-coronavirus-figure-falling-so-sharply


----------



## Brett (Jul 29, 2020)

grupp said:


> I thought this was a well balance article on what is currently going on in Sweden, doesn't really get into the debate on the merits of their approach to the virus. I don't believe you can draw any conclusions yet, but does give some possibly reasons for the downturn.  It does seem that the articles bashing their approach have dried up some in the last few weeks. But maybe that is because things have gone so wrong in a few areas the US, which is more interesting and has drawn attention away from them.
> 
> I don't know if their approach was better than ours, but do find interesting to see how it works out for them. Whether it was right or wrong they chose a path that was different than the rest of the world and stuck to it despite criticism from all sides.
> 
> ...



Sweden - right or wrong -
maybe socialized government health care is better
maybe paying a 70% personal income tax is better
maybe a 25% sales tax is better
maybe having a small budget for defense spending is better

 !


----------



## grupp (Jul 29, 2020)

Brett said:


> Sweden - right or wrong -
> maybe socialized government health care is better
> maybe paying a 70% personal income tax is better
> maybe a 25% sales tax is better
> ...


Just curious, what does any of that have to do with Covid 19?


----------



## Brett (Jul 29, 2020)

grupp said:


> Just curious, what does any of that have to do with Covid 19?



some people here claim that those living in Sweden are better off than Americans  (COVID 19 and otherwise)

maybe epidemiologists .... maybe not


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 29, 2020)

Brett said:


> some people here claim that those living in Sweden are better off than Americans  (COVID 19 and otherwise)
> 
> maybe epidemiologists .... maybe not


Who are those people? Maybe you are confusing social media platforms. And again how is that related to Covid?

Regardless of the political system, virtually every country locked down at one point or another with the exception of Sweden. This is not political as much as you would like it to be. It is a pity if you think that trolling all threads with political innuendo is the way to go.


----------



## Brett (Jul 29, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Who are those people? Maybe you are confusing social media platforms. And again how is that related to Covid?
> 
> Regardless of the political system, virtually every country locked down at one point or another with the exception of Sweden. This is not political as much as you would like it to be. It is a pity if you think that trolling all threads with political innuendo is the way to go.




LOL !!!
*"if you think that trolling all threads with political innuendo is the way to go"*


----------



## tlwmkw (Jul 29, 2020)

I have watched this thread with interest. I have family members who live half the year in Sweden (they are there now). They report that while it is not locked down people are following guidelines for social distancing, hand hygiene, and are wearing masks. The swedish seem much more willing to do these things than people in this country and don't seem bothered by this or complain about doing it. I don't think any of us knows the best way to deal with this virus but it is interesting to see what different places are doing and how they are handling the situation.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 29, 2020)

*‘We see no point in wearing a face mask,’ Sweden’s top virus expert says as he touts the country’s improving COVID numbers*









						'We see no point in wearing a face mask,' Sweden's top virus expert says as he touts the country's improving COVID numbers
					

Since hitting a peak in late June, Sweden's COVID-19 infection rate has fallen sharply in recent weeks. And that’s amid an increase in testing over the period.




					fortune.com


----------



## Brett (Jul 29, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> 'We see no point in wearing a face mask,' Sweden's top virus expert says as he touts the country's improving COVID numbers
> 
> 
> Since hitting a peak in late June, Sweden's COVID-19 infection rate has fallen sharply in recent weeks. And that’s amid an increase in testing over the period.
> ...



if Sweden does it, we should all do it  ... *why stop at masks ?  !!*


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## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

Now Sweden is  21st in terms of deaths per 1 million people, it was 17th when I started this thread. I am surprised that during the testimony  for Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, nobody asked Dr. Fauci, CDC Director Redfield how they explained Sweden was doing better than many.











						Experience
					






					experience.arcgis.com
				




Deaths/day


----------



## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)

If only the _Socialist Swedes_ had Dr. Anthony Fauci





"*Maybe we should have taken some more care of each other," *

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Aug 2, 2020)

Sweden did it right.  Tell older people and those at risk to stay home, and everyone else should know there is a risk and wear a mask.  

I have immunity, Rick has immunity, we caught the virus early March, March 1st, and we had basically symptoms of minor colds.  Those were our symptoms.  We stayed home and stayed warm.  We didn't know that is what we had until we had the immunity test done.  We agree that we lucked out because our symptoms were minor, but we were in the group considered high risk, 65 years old.  But I am so healthy compared to how I was last year, and that added to my success in getting through it with just a severe backache where my lungs are.  It was so bad it hurt to lean against our leather furniture.  That was my worst symptom.  Rick had a lot of chest pain, but we weren't coughing a lot, so that was just kind of a weird thing to not be coughing and have lung pain.  

If I catch it again, I will make it through without hospitalization, I am sure.  I want to get back to my normal life again.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> If only the _Socialist Swedes_ had Dr. Anthony Fauci
> 
> 
> 
> ...



In the last 2 weeks: 16847 deaths in the US vs only 64 in Sweden. If you exclude the initial numbers from March and April (that had nothing to do with the lockdowns), Sweden has done much better than the US and certainly is doing a lot better now. Why exactly does Sweden need Dr. Fauci? I think Dr. Fauci will have to revisit soon what is happening in Sweden.


----------



## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)




----------



## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> View attachment 24410
> 
> View attachment 24411


Brett, it is not working, you are just recycling old talking points


----------



## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)




----------



## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

Brett, in your article it says that Dr Fauci has been in the government for 52 years! Is that true?


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 2, 2020)

A positive for Sweden









						Sweden, Which Never Had Lockdown, Sees COVID-19 Cases Plummet
					

The seven-day rolling average of daily new deaths in Sweden has also been declining for months.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 2, 2020)

Here is another positive article about Sweden’s strategy.









						Coronavirus: can Britain learn from the Swedish model?
					

This week’s most important piece of data for the British economy will be published not in London, but 890 miles away in Stockholm.Sweden rejected lockdown when




					www.thetimes.co.uk


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 2, 2020)

It looks like Sweden’s neighbors are being friendly again.






						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com


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## cman (Aug 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Now Sweden is  21st in terms of deaths per 1 million people, it was 17th when I started this thread. I am surprised that during the testimony  for Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, nobody asked Dr. Fauci, CDC Director Redfield how they explained Sweden was doing better than many.
> 
> View attachment 24395
> 
> ...



I'm not sure how you arrive at the conclusion that "Sweden is doing better than many". I see almost everyone doing better than Sweden.

Out of almost 200 countries on the planet. *Sweden is the 5th worst in terms of deaths/million. To me that's not doing "better than many".*

If we use your table and do include the individual states, *Sweden would be the 20th worst out of 250 jurisdictions. 20th out of 250 is not doing well.*

The rest of Europe got their deaths down in June and some of them got things under control in May. Take a look at how they compare to their Nordic neighbors;

*Heads up: The scales are different on these charts*, but you'll get the idea. The bottom line is that their neighbors had this thing under control in May and early June.


----------



## jme (Aug 2, 2020)

I've hired a driver, chartering a bus for those who wish to move to Sweden. Are you in?

To keep talking about Sweden (Sheesh already) which is totally 100% irrelevant to me, it reminds me of a famous line from
Gone With the Wind.  If memory serves, I believe Rhett Butler said, "Frankly, Danny, I don't give a damn".


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

jme said:


> I've hired a driver, chartering a bus for those who wish to move to Sweden. Are you in?
> 
> To keep talking about Sweden (Sheesh already) which is totally 100% irrelevant to me, it reminds me of a famous line from
> Gone With the Wind.  If memory serves, I believe Rhett Butler said, "Franky, Danny, I don't give a damn".



One country decided to do the opposite of what every other Western country has done. Your lack of intellectual curiosity is your problem.  You do not have to comment if you do not give a damn.
I am not in but, given that they seem to have the virus under control right now, you should consider it. Depending on where you live though, a bus may not be appropriate.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

@cman I am not sure you read the comments before, you will have some of the answers to the points you bring up.
1) not all jurisdictions are reliable and can be compared. Just to give few examples, can Iran, Brasil, Afghanistan really be included in any chart and consider their data reliable? Tanzania tested a goat, a papaya and a parrot, and they all came back Covid positive, I think they stopped testing at that point. They only have 0.5 deaths per 1 million people. Do you think it is a good idea to include it in any comparison? Iran reported 309,000 infections, their president announced they had 25 million people infected. Do you think it is a good idea to compare Iran to Sweden or any other Western country?

2) In Sweden most of the deaths occured in March and April, and  a lockdown in mid-March like most of the  world would have not prevented those deaths because the transmission must have been before March 15th (according to the CDC there is a 4 week lag, and many times a lot longer, between contact to recording a death). The reality is that their peak of deaths per day was April 15th and they went down continuously.

3) their current number of deaths is virtually zero (1-2 per day) so I can say they are doing well. As I said before, in the last 2 weeks: 16847 deaths in the US vs only 64 in Sweden.

4) do not forget that, according to the models (and those that made them and pushed for the lock downs) Sweden was supposed to have 20 times more deaths without a lock down, yet that did not happen and they are a lot better than others that (possibly) infringed into a lot of laws and civil liberties.

5) I am surprised that people are not more interested in why states that locked down and put a lot of measures in place, have a higher number of deaths per 1 million people, in some cases 50% more, 200% more and 300% more than Sweden.

6) If you look at the other Nordic countries, for whatever reason they started from a much lower base in March and April, and those numbers where not influenced by the lock downs which started in mid March.


----------



## jme (Aug 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> One country decided to do the opposite of what every other Western country has done. Your lack of curiosity is your problem.  You do not have to comment if you do not give a damn.
> I am not in but, given that they seem to have the virus under control right now, you should consider it. Depending on where you live though, a bus may not be appropriate.



My recent post was simply to compare today's new death graph (which I posted) which you "did not see coming" last month, but which I predicted.


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## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)

I've heard Sweden has government run *socialist* healthcare


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

jme said:


> My recent post was simply to compare today's new death graph (which I posted) which you "did not see coming" last month, but which I predicted.
> 
> View attachment 24420



The number of deaths is half of what it was in April. I do not think the current number of deaths is bad actually given that the number of tests is 8-10 times more than at the beginning of the pandemic, given that the more tests you do the more positives you record and eventually more deaths (whether from Covid *or just  with Covid)*, and given that you had a busy 4th of July and protests for 65 days.

Probably if you had today the same number of tests as in March-April, the current number of deaths would be 10 times less than back in the spring.


----------



## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)

jme said:


> I've hired a driver, chartering a bus for those who wish to move to Sweden. Are you in?
> 
> To keep talking about Sweden (Sheesh already) which is totally 100% irrelevant to me, it reminds me of a famous line from
> Gone With the Wind.  If memory serves, I believe Rhett Butler said, "Franky, Danny, I don't give a damn".




I'm thinking some here will take that ride on the government run socialist healthcare bus
probably love the 70% personal income tax rate and 25% sales tax
or maybe it's the powerful unions


----------



## CO skier (Aug 2, 2020)

jme said:


> If memory serves, I believe Rhett Butler said, "Franky, Danny, I don't give a damn".


Who is Franky?


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> I'm thinking some here will take that ride on the government run socialist healthcare bus
> probably love the 70% personal income tax rate and 25% sales tax
> or maybe it's the powerful unions


I live Canada and the social system and the taxation are not that far off from Sweden. If you think you are going to annoy me making those statements you are  wrong. I do not see where you found the 75% taxes in Sweden, I see they are 30-55%, more or less the same as in Canada if you are in a high marginal tax break. But if you would like to elaborate why this is very relevant  to the discussion about Covid, I am more than happy to listen.









						Sweden vs United States: Economy > Tax Facts and Stats
					

Tax rates, Constant LCU, Corporate rate, Constant LCU per capita, Individual rate and 69 More Interesting Facts and Stats



					www.nationmaster.com


----------



## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Who is Franky?



Frankenstein ?





https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sweden...den-example-of-how-not-to-deal-with-covid-19/


----------



## CO skier (Aug 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> Frankenstein ?


"That's Fronkenshteen."  And Gene Wilder does have a certain "look" that reminds me of someone ...


----------



## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)

CO skier said:


> "That's Fronkenshteen."  And Gene Wilder does have a certain "look" that reminds me of someone ...


OK


----------



## CO skier (Aug 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> OK
> View attachment 24425


Oh, please.  Sweden did not "pursue a policy of herd immunity" -- the national Swedish epidemiologist stated that from the beginning (look it up and get some facts -- instead of buying into the US fake news).

Here are 6 fake news narratives the US media perpetuates about Sweden, and you may be a victim of believing:

In the first month of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden took the same strategy as most other countries, working to “flatten the curve,” by slowing transmission so that the healthcare system could cope with the disease. However, unlike most other countries, much of Sweden’s implementation focused on voluntary and stepwise action, rather than legislation and compulsory measures, leading to considerable attention in the international media.

Six main narratives emerged in the international media reporting on Sweden during the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic: (1) Life is normal in Sweden, (2) Sweden has a herd immunity strategy, (3) Sweden is not following expert advice, (4) Sweden is not following WHO recommendations (5) the Swedish approach is failing and (6) Swedes trust the government. While these narratives are partially grounded in reality, in some media outlets, the language and examples used to frame the story distorted the accuracy of the reporting.









						Misinformation and de-contextualization: international media reporting on Sweden and COVID-19
					

In the first month of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden took the same strategy as most other countries, working to “flatten the curve,” by slowing transmission so that the healthcare system could cope with the disease. However, unlike ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




afaik, Sweden does not have any mask orders, their schools are open, and their death rate is less than more than 20 other countries -- many with mask orders and closed schools.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> OK
> 
> View attachment 24425
> View attachment 24426



I am clearly interested in what Sweden has been doing.  It is not an experiment, the whole world has been an experiment and has chosen a path never taken before (at least not in the recent history). Countries announced lockdowns without knowing what to do in 2 weeks let alone in 2 months. I am calling _that_ an experiment. 

Why are you so against Sweden though? Their strategy is clearly working. Why would you like to see them failing?


----------



## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)

Something smells in the socialist state ...


----------



## CO skier (Aug 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> Something smells in the socialist state ...
> 
> View attachment 24427
> 
> View attachment 24428


No, Mary Harris did not check her facts as depicted in post #79 of this thread -- and merely repeated the false US news narrative.

And she just made stuff up (faked), "Face masks were constantly discouraged."  

Pure baloney.  Face masks were and are not mandated.  That is the true fact.


----------



## jme (Aug 2, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> The number of deaths is half of what it was in April. I do not think the current number of deaths is bad actually given that the number of tests is 8-10 times more than at the beginning of the pandemic, given that the more tests you do the more positives you record and eventually more deaths (whether from Covid *or just  with Covid)*, and given that you had a busy 4th of July and protests for 65 days.
> Probably if you had today the same number of tests as in March-April, the current number of deaths would be 10 times less than back in the spring.



Wow, I feel sooooo much much better now. 
You truly put my mind at ease.  
Aside from the fatalities, I guess the fact that people still suffer serious health consequences long after infection (and regardless of age), 
even though they didn't die, 
like serious heart, lung, and brain damage, doesn't really count for much. Sure, they'll be just fine, no harm done, right?
Where's that graph?
Might wish to run that past them and see how they feel about that.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

jme said:


> Wow, I feel sooooo much much better now.
> You truly put my mind at ease.
> Aside from the fatalities, I guess the fact that people still suffer serious health consequences long after infection (and regardless of age),
> even though they didn't die,
> ...


When you talk about long term consequences, we realize that this is a new virus whose long term effects have not been studied, right?


----------



## CO skier (Aug 2, 2020)

jme said:


> Wow, I feel sooooo much much better now.
> You truly put my mind at ease.
> Aside from the fatalities, I guess the fact that people still suffer serious health consequences long after infection (and regardless of age),
> even though they didn't die,
> ...


... and Your solution to all that you enumerate is?


----------



## davidvel (Aug 2, 2020)

jme said:


> Wow, I feel sooooo much much better now.
> You truly put my mind at ease.
> Aside from the fatalities, I guess the fact that people still suffer serious health consequences long after infection (and regardless of age),
> even though they didn't die,
> ...


Where is the graph? I have heard that very few have these types of repercussions, but haven't seen any actual data showing the prevalence, and you don't cite to any.


----------



## jme (Aug 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> When you talk about long term consequences, we realize that this is a new virus whose long term effects have not been studied, right?



Of course,
but do you have to study it long term before you say it's bad, and sometimes tragic?
Sounds like you'd first wish to study those who've been run over by a train before making any kind of judgment.
The fact that these consequences have been noted by physicians already when examining the patients post-infection
is enough for me at this point. If they see actual physical damage present, there is damage,
and it will most likely manifest itself in some debilitating manner or another as each patient goes forward.
Regardless of the prevalence of such post-infection sequelae, I have seen Xrays which show grotesque and ravaged lungs
in recovered patients, even young ones. The truth is, a lot isn't written about those cases, but sometimes a single article will appear.

If a "recovered" Covid patient says he/she still has trouble breathing, or that their EKG has shown new abnormalities,
or that their cognitive abilities have been diminished, I believe those are serious consequences.
What it DOESN'T mean is that they're perfectly fine and in good health just because they didn't die.
Your assumption or pronouncement that they're fine because they haven't been studied longterm is naive.
I think so many people, especially the young 20 & 30-somethings who have been out partying are simply not realizing
the potential gravity of becoming infected.
It's the "No Fear" generation essentially having their knuckles rapped by these new discoveries that are showing up every day.








						Patient, 30, said ‘I thought this was a hoax’ before dying after ‘COVID party:’ Texas doctor
					

A 30-year-old coronavirus patient at a San Antonio medical center told a nurse “I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not” shortly before dying, the hospital’s top doctor said.




					www.nydailynews.com
				




*And this morning 8/3/2020: *








						Eduardo Rodriguez out for season with post-COVID-19 heart issue
					

Red Sox ace Eduardo Rodriguez will sit out the rest of the season because of a heart issue, which the team believes is related to the southpaw’s recent contraction of COVID-19.




					www.foxnews.com
				



*Doctors told Rodriguez that up to 20 percent of people who’ve been infected with COVID-19 are diagnosed with myocarditis.*
And these are not preexisting conditions, but a direct result of having contracted the virus.
Want to do a study on that? go ahead, but the doctors are telling you what's going on.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 3, 2020)

It is a classic case of antiselection where those with the most severe symptoms  who ended up in the hospital also are the most likely to report some problems afterwords. How can you draw the conclusion it is Covid who did that and how do you know they did not have conditions they had not known about? Maybe that is why they ended up in the hospital in the first place while so many others are "asymptomatic" ? It happens all the time when people "perfectly" healthy people find out for the first time they are not that healthy.

I would like to see a real study and real numbers. As @davidvel said, where is the prevalence? 5 million people have tested positive in the US and probably the real number of infected is a multiple of that. How many of those have had those "serious consequences"?


----------



## cman (Aug 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> @cman I am not sure you read the comments before, you will have some of the answers to the points you bring up.
> 1) not all jurisdictions are reliable and can be compared. Just to give few examples, can Iran, Brasil, Afghanistan really be included in any chart and consider their data reliable? Tanzania tested a goat, a papaya and a parrot, and they all came back Covid positive, I think they stopped testing at that point. They only have 0.5 deaths per 1 million people. Do you think it is a good idea to include it in any comparison? Iran reported 309,000 infections, their president announced they had 25 million people infected. Do you think it is a good idea to compare Iran to Sweden or any other Western country?



*I read the comments but still can't see how Sweden can be considered a success story. Granted, the data from all countries can't be trusted. However, if we were to come up with a list of "trusted" countries, Sweden would still be a disaster. Look through the list of countries, exclude those those who's data is questionable, and Sweden would still be at the bottom of the list. You can compare them against the EU countries, Asian countries or you can cherry pick the ones that best fit your narrative. The bottom line is that they will end up one of the worst performing countries however you choose to compare them. *


2) In Sweden most of the deaths occured in March and April, and  a lockdown in mid-March like most of the  world would have not prevented those deaths because the transmission must have been before March 15th (according to the CDC there is a 4 week lag, and many times a lot longer, between contact to recording a death). The reality is that their peak of deaths per day was April 15th and they went down continuously.
*Please see the graphs I provided on post #90. All of the Nordic countries had the most deaths in March and April. Sweden's neighbors had stopped the deaths in May. People were still dying in Sweden until they finally got this thing under control in July. Two months of additional deaths. *

3) their current number of deaths is virtually zero (1-2 per day) so I can say they are doing well. As I said before, in the last 2 weeks: 16847 deaths in the US vs only 64 in Sweden.
*I agree that they're finally doing well. However, their neighbors got there two months ago. Sweden has paid a heavy price in terms of lives for the approach they've taken. They're death rate is 12 times that of Norway, 5 times that of Denmark, and 10 times that of Finland's. I'm not seeing nothing there worth emulating.*

4) do not forget that, according to the models (and those that made them and pushed for the lock downs) Sweden was supposed to have 20 times more deaths without a lock down, yet that did not happen and they are a lot better than others that (possibly) infringed into a lot of laws and civil liberties.
*Not sure what "others" they're doing better than. I can't find a single comparative metric that would support such a conclusion. *

5) I am surprised that people are not more interested in why states that locked down and put a lot of measures in place, have a higher number of deaths per 1 million people, in some cases 50% more, 200% more and 300% more than Sweden.
*Most states, mine included, didn't fully lockdown. Worse, we didn't follow the recommended guidelines for reopening and did it at a time when the virus was spreading. TX, AZ, FL. We all did it. Now the virus is running rampant in our communities. So the answer to the question is that those states opened up too soon.*

6) If you look at the other Nordic countries, for whatever reason they started from a much lower base in March and April, and those numbers where not influenced by the lock downs which started in mid March.
*That's factually incorrect. Norway actually started with the most cases. Here's the breakdown for March 15 for the Nordic counties;

Findland:   19
Denmark:  28
Norway:    147
Sweden:     69

So, Sweden didn't start with higher numbers, Norway did. They locked down, addressed the problem and have now reopened. *

[/QUOTE]


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 3, 2020)

cman said:


> *I read the comments but still can't see how Sweden can be considered a success story. Granted, the data from all countries can't be trusted. However, if we were to come up with a list of "trusted" countries, Sweden would still be a disaster. Look through the list of countries, exclude those those who's data is questionable, and Sweden would still be at the bottom of the list. You can compare them against the EU countries, Asian countries or you can cherry pick the ones that best fit your narrative. The bottom line is that they will end up one of the worst performing countries however you choose to compare them. *
> 
> 
> 2) In Sweden most of the deaths occured in March and April, and  a lockdown in mid-March like most of the  world would have not prevented those deaths because the transmission must have been before March 15th (according to the CDC there is a 4 week lag, and many times a lot longer, between contact to recording a death). The reality is that their peak of deaths per day was April 15th and they went down continuously.
> ...


[/QUOTE]
6) If you want to see how many people were actually infected at the beginning you are incorrect because *you are looking at the least reliable number, *positive tests, especially back then  so few tests were being performed and they took a long time to be processed. If you look at the *number of Covid deaths*, you will get a much better picture. By April 15th Norway had 150 deaths, Denmark 309, Finland 72, Sweden 1500 already and those had nothing to do with the lockdowns; it will tell you that Sweden had a lot more Covid in the country when the lockdowns started.

Also, if you look at the number of  active cases in many countries and states that did lock down  it will show you that they  flattened the curve at the time (and so did Sweden!) but the number of cases started to rise at a later time again which tells you they only delayed the inevitable, they did not avoid it.



5) many states did fully lock down and what were the results? Either they did 2-3 times worse than Sweden or they are *passing* Sweden *now*. Can you please explain why Delaware and DC are doing a lot worse than Sweden if these measures were the way to go?

2),3) look at number 6 for the answer, Sweden started from a much worse position, the same like France, Italy, NY and others.


But it should not even be a competition, Sweden should be up there 20 times worse than everybody else if you were to believe the models. I also think you do not take into account the socio-economic consequences of the lockdowns. Many people are desperate and have a lot of time to burn and some will do bad things. You should be alarmed about those as well, pandemics come and go but the consequences of the lockdowns like increase violence, suicides, bankruptcies, delayed education, increased extreme poverty, mental health problems may be here to stay for years to come.









						More than 150 rounds fired during shooting outside Portland apartment
					

More than 150 rounds were fired during a shooting in a Portland neighborhood on Friday, ending the city's deadliest month since the 1980s.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Brett (Aug 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> 6) If you want to see how many people were actually infected you are incorrect because *you are looking at the least reliable number, *positive tests, especially at the beginning of the pandemic when so few tests were being performed and they took a long time to be processed. If you look at the *number of Covid deaths*, you will get a much better picture. By April 15th Norway had 150 deaths, Denmark 309, Finland 72, Sweden 1500 already and those had nothing to do with the lockdowns; it will tell you that Sweden had a lot more Covid in the country when the lockdowns started.
> 
> Also, if you look at the number of  active cases in many countries and states that did lock down  it will show you that they  flattened the curve at the time (and so did Sweden!) but the number of cases started to rise at a later time again which tells you they only delayed the inevitable, they did not avoid it.
> 5) many states did fully lock down and what were the results? Either they did 2-3 times worse than Sweden or they are *passing* Sweden *now*. Can you please explain why Delaware and DC are doing a lot worse than Sweden if these measures were the way to go?
> ...



^^ there ya go
it's the Portland protesters causing the coronavirus spike  .... yeah, that's the ticket


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 3, 2020)

Brett said:


> ^^ there ya go
> it's the Portland protesters causing the coronavirus spike  .... yeah, that's the ticket
> 
> View attachment 24461


The protests did have an influence in the spread of the virus (as Dr Fauci admitted during the Senate hearing) but I did not post the Daily Mail article for that reason, rather to point out the socio-economic consequences of the lockdowns.


----------



## Bunk (Aug 3, 2020)

There is another false narrative the US media perpetuates about Sweden, namely that Swedish is a socialist state.


----------



## Brett (Aug 3, 2020)

Bunk said:


> There is another false narrative the US media perpetuates about Sweden, namely that Swedish is a socialist state.




   the  evil US media ....  ...  was Sweden neutral during WW2 and WW1 ?


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 3, 2020)

Brett said:


> the  evil US media ....  ...  was Sweden neutral during WW2 and WW1 ?
> 
> View attachment 24462


If you are trying to dilute and weaken the arguments on the other side, you are doing a great job.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 3, 2020)

California had a serious lockdown. We were the first state to lockdown and everyone thought we were a success story. Now look at us. We had to shutdown again and we are #1 in the nation for number of cases (granted we are a big state). How do folks explain what happened in California? I think our approach has been a dismal failure.

Just saw this depressing article about the Bay Area. In some ways, the BayArea is comparable to Sweden in its progressive culture, so-called government trust and population size.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/08/02/san-francisco-coronavirus-surge/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_virussf-620pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
		


The Bay Area was supposed to be exceptional.

It was one of the first metro areas in the United States to fully shut down to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. Nearly everyone wears masks, in stores and on streets. Its progressive residents generally have been inclined to follow the rules, and there’s a high level of trust in public health officials, local governments and the fast-changing science.

But now, more than four months after the region put some of the nation’s first shelter-in-place orders in effect, the Bay Area is experiencing a surge in cases and counties are rolling back reopening plans.

The Bay Area, which consists of nine counties and nearly 8 million people, is a cautionary tale for government and health officials. Even though leaders here tried to do everything cautiously and by the book, cases still eventually spiked over a month and a half, to an average of 877 cases a day at the end of July from 217 a day in mid-June........


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 3, 2020)

jme said:


> Of course,
> but do you have to study it long term before you say it's bad, and sometimes tragic?
> Sounds like you'd first wish to study those who've been run over by a train before making any kind of judgment.
> The fact that these consequences have been noted by physicians already when examining the patients post-infection
> ...


"*The positive thing is that, after a period of exercise in our gym, most of them can recover efficiently*." (please read the article below)









						Brain fog, fatigue, breathlessness. Rehab centers set up across Europe to treat long-term effects of coronavirus | CNN
					

Professional diver Emiliano Pescarolo contracted coronavirus in March and spent 17 days in hospital in the Italian port city of Genoa before being discharged on April 10.




					www.cnn.com
				





You never answered the question: of the 5 million reported C19-positive in the US, how many have had these problems? Did you know that 10 million people in the US have severe chronic cough for example that they experience months and sometimes years after the underlying condition is gone?  Do I have to mention again that a lot of what we know now about C19 proved the early reports wrong and this may be just another media hype?


----------



## Brett (Aug 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> If you are trying to dilute and weaken the arguments on the other side, you are doing a great job.



We're on the same side   ----     Proud Patriot Americans !








*Maybe we should have taken some more care of each other,"*


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 3, 2020)

Countries making decisions will also take into account that there is still no guarantee that we will have a vaccine in the next year or ever, they may have to prepare for an approach that is sustainable in the long term. 

*WHO says there’s no ‘silver bullet’ to defeat coronavirus and ‘there might never be’*










						WHO says there's no 'silver bullet' to defeat coronavirus and 'there might never be'
					

For now, world leaders can stop new outbreaks by practicing the "basics" of public health and disease control, the WHO chief said.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## grupp (Aug 3, 2020)

Brett said:


> View attachment 24468


Yes Al Jazeera is my first stop for news as well. Did you actually listen to the interview or just cut and paste the headline?









						Sweden’s unorthodox response to COVID-19: What went wrong?
					

Health Minister Lena Hallengren discusses Sweden’s coronavirus death toll, the worst by far in Scandinavia.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Monykalyn (Aug 3, 2020)

grupp said:


> Yes Al Jazeera is my first stop for news as well. Did you actually listen to the interview or just cut and past the headline?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


perhaps the most important thing she said is the pandemic is not over.


----------



## Brett (Aug 3, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> perhaps the most important thing she said is the pandemic is not over.




the coronavirus doesn't stop for socialist countries


----------



## cman (Aug 3, 2020)

grupp said:


> Yes Al Jazeera is my first stop for news as well. Did you actually listen to the interview or just cut and paste the headline?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


She did a good job of explaining their "intentions". Unfortunately, there are no "do overs" when it comes to pandemics. It's hard for a public health official to admit that their decisions caused unnecessary deaths, even in the face of obvious data. I don't envy them, I'd never want to be in that position. But the data is pretty clear. Sweden messed up;


----------



## davidvel (Aug 3, 2020)

Brett said:


> the coronavirus doesn't stop for socialist countries
> 
> View attachment 24483


Your posts are very strange, not sure what you are trying to accomplish. Posting screen grabs from random places, without reference or underlying links is very troll-y.


----------



## VegasBella (Aug 4, 2020)

I keep seeing this thread. I am so surprised it has been able to continue without getting too political and getting shut down.
Anyway, Sweden has a higher per capita death rate than either US or Brazil. They did a terrible job and let a bunch of people die needlessly.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 4, 2020)

VegasBella said:


> I keep seeing this thread. I am so surprised it has been able to continue without getting too political and getting shut down.
> Anyway, Sweden has a higher per capita death rate than either US or Brazil. They did a terrible job and let a bunch of people die needlessly.


I am not sure people are aware, the projections are that US and Brazil will exceed the death rate per capita of Sweden in few short weeks.


----------



## CPNY (Aug 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I am not sure people are aware, the projections are that US and Brazil will exceed the death rate per capita of Sweden in few short weeks.


How can anyone really compare Sweden to The US? The US is 2084% larger in land mass and has 320M more people. I can see comparing it to downstate NY (NYC/LI) in which case NYC did much worse with tighter restrictions. Comparing the whole of Sweden to the whole of the US is like comparing pine nuts to car tires.


----------



## grupp (Aug 4, 2020)

Opinion article comparing Italy and Sweden 









						Good Covid-19 News From Italy...and Sweden
					

Good Covid-19 News From Italy...and Sweden




					www.bloombergquint.com


----------



## Brett (Aug 4, 2020)

CPNY said:


> How can anyone really compare Sweden to The US? The US is 2084% larger in land mass and has 320M more people. I can see comparing it to downstate NY (NYC/LI) in which case NYC did much worse with tighter restrictions. Comparing the whole of Sweden to the whole of the US is like comparing pine nuts to car tires.



not readily comparable    ---    and Sweden is a socialist  social welfare state


----------



## CPNY (Aug 4, 2020)

Brett said:


> not readily comparable    ---    and Sweden is a socialist  social welfare state
> 
> View attachment 24509


Yeah, nyc did a terrible job. As did MA, NJ and CT.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Your posts are very strange, not sure what you are trying to accomplish. Posting screen grabs from random places, without reference or underlying links is very troll-y.


Maybe the lounge should also be for members only.


----------



## Brett (Aug 4, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Yeah, nyc did a terrible job. As did MA, NJ and CT.



and Florida, Calf, Texas, ... and England but Sweden ....


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 4, 2020)

VegasBella said:


> I keep seeing this thread. I am so surprised it has been able to continue without getting too political and getting shut down.
> Anyway, Sweden has a higher per capita death rate than either US or Brazil. They did a terrible job and let a bunch of people die needlessly.


Somebody has been trying really hard to inject politics into this thread, probably hoping it would be shut down but he did not succeed so far.


----------



## Brett (Aug 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Somebody has been trying really hard to inject politics into this thread, probably hoping it would be shut down but he did not succeed so far.



We all hope threads won't be shut down - we are all in this pandemic together 
(socialist social welfare and non-socialist states)








*https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sweden-covid-coronavirus-deaths-make-sweden-example-of-how-not-to-deal-with-covid-19/*


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 7, 2020)

the projections are showing that starting September 9th the US will have more deaths per 100,000 people than Sweden


----------



## VegasBella (Aug 7, 2020)

Yes, I can see how the US might do the worst job in all the world. I think it's a really difficult problem to solve in a nation that's so large and diverse with a culture so steeped in personal freedom without any recent history of a seriously deadly epidemic or pandemic. Nations that are less diverse, smaller and isolated (no surprise New Zealand can handle this well) and/or have a recent memory of an epidemic (like SARS) can probably manage this better. Add in all our healthcare and political issues and yeah, USA is not gonna do very well. Hopefully, our scientists, philanthropists, and pharma industry will help even things out and keep the US from having a total health and economic melt-down.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 7, 2020)

VegasBella said:


> Yes, I can see how the US might do the worst job in all the world. I think it's a really difficult problem to solve in a nation that's so large and diverse with a culture so steeped in personal freedom without any recent history of a seriously deadly epidemic or pandemic. Nations that are less diverse, smaller and isolated (no surprise New Zealand can handle this well) and/or have a recent memory of an epidemic (like SARS) can probably manage this better. Add in all our healthcare and political issues and yeah, USA is not gonna do very well. Hopefully, our scientists, philanthropists, and pharma industry will help even things out and keep the US from having a total health and economic melt-down.


The point of the thread is not that a country is doing slightly better or worse but rather that Sweden was  supposed to be 20 times worse than the rest of the world, but it did not happen, despite not imposing a lockdown, keeping the schools open etc. Something does not make sense.


----------



## cman (Aug 7, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> The point of the thread is not that a country is doing slightly better or worse but rather that Sweden was  supposed to be 20 times worse than the rest of the world, but it did not happen, despite not imposing a lockdown, keeping the schools open etc. Something does not make sense.


Sweden is one of the worst countries in the world as far as deaths/million population. Out of 197 countries on the planet, Sweden comes in at about the fifth worst. You know this, so what's up with your fixation with Sweden. They're basically the worst performing country on the planet. Why should anyone follow their example?


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 7, 2020)

Have you checked Burkina Fasso in person and you have reached the conclusion that their numbers are solid? Should we keep it on the list or just compare with the rest of the 196 countries? You have a fixation on comparing 197 countries. Every time I look at the list, I do not trust  more than 25-30 in terms of their reporting.  You did not seem to progress from the previous comments in this thread. For whatever reason, Sweden started with a lot more cases than many other countries. Despite that and despite the lack of a lockdown, Sweden reached a peak of deaths on April 15th and it has been better and better ever since. A lockdown mid-March would have not helped concerning the deaths, most of the damage had been done since there is a lag of at least 4 weeks between contact and a reported death. You do not want to acknowledge that.

And where did you get the idea that it was the 5th worst? It is not true, probably you are looking at old articles, you should just refer to this thread for better and more updated information.

hospital in Burkina Faso


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 7, 2020)

Based on cases, USA is the 9th worst. Sweden is the 22nd worst. Singapore is worse than Sweden based on cases.

Based on deaths, USA is 10th worst and Sweden is 8th worst.

Since the majority of Sweden’s deaths were in nursing homes, I expect it will eventually fall in the death ranking, just like in the case ranking.

Source: Worldometer


----------



## TravelAmore (Aug 8, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Based on cases, USA is the 9th worst. Sweden is the 22nd worst. Singapore is worse than Sweden based on cases.
> 
> Based on deaths, USA is 10th worst and Sweden is 8th worst.
> 
> ...



From NY Times: ttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?referringSource=articleShare

From the British Medical Journal: https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376

In short, Sweden experienced more cases and death than the surrounding Scandinavian countries, and indeed most of Europe. And, early indicators show their economy has not flourished, fairing just slightly better in some industries than neighboring countries that instituted lock-down. All-in-all, not a panacea when viewed in the context of surrounding countries.

There are a few role model countries that were able to calm things down relatively quickly and have not been afraid of shutting things down again when cases spike. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Aug 8, 2020)

TravelAmore said:


> From NY Times: ttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?referringSource=articleShare
> 
> From the British Medical Journal: https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376
> 
> ...


Old articles. The unemployment increased by 2% in Sweden vs 12% in NY for example, the GDP contracted 8% Vs 31% in the US in Q2, Sweden fared quite a lot better economically than others *without borrowing trillions of dollars*. NYT was wrong at the time and never revisited the issue. The other points have been discussed extensively here, you can refer to earlier comments. Old articles do not count because things looked temporarily better for those that shut down but the inevitable happened when they opened and they did have to open sooner rather or later; this is why US is catching up with Sweden pretty fast (and will exceed the number of deaths per capita in about 4 weeks)


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## Brett (Aug 8, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Based on cases, USA is the 9th worst. Sweden is the 22nd worst. Singapore is worse than Sweden based on cases.
> 
> Based on deaths, USA is 10th worst and Sweden is 8th worst.
> 
> ...



I suppose we should follow the CDC guidelines on not traveling to socialist  social welfare state of Sweden
(except a certain Canadian)


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## DannyTS (Aug 8, 2020)

Brett said:


> I suppose we should follow the CDC guidelines on not traveling to socialist  social welfare state of Sweden
> (except a certain Canadian)
> 
> View attachment 24621


I beg to differ, United States registered 845,000 new infected people in the last two weeks, Sweden 3,393 so US has 8 times more infected people per capita.


----------



## Brett (Aug 8, 2020)

https://www.thelocal.se/20200806/it...renewed-rise-in-infections-among-young-adults


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 8, 2020)

Brett said:


> View attachment 24623
> 
> https://www.thelocal.se/20200806/it...renewed-rise-in-infections-among-young-adults
> [/QUOTE
> refer to my previous comment, 8 times less than in the US


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## TravelAmore (Aug 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Old articles. The unemployment increased by 2% in Sweden vs 12% in NY for example, the GDP contracted 8% Vs 31% in the US in Q2, Sweden fared quite a lot better economically than others *without borrowing trillions of dollars*. NYT was wrong at the time and never revisited the issue. The other points have been discussed extensively here, you can refer to earlier comments. Old articles do not count because things look temporarily better for those that shut down but the inevitable happens when they open and they do have to open sooner rather than later, this is why US is catching up with Sweden pretty fast (and will exceed the number of deaths per capita in about 4 weeks)



So your point is we should not do shutdowns in the US?
Didn’t several states do that? Didn’t the US pretty much do that in Feb & March? 

Even the countries that managed to get control early, like South Korea - which did NOT shut everything down but banned crowds, quarantined promptly w/contact tracing, and, enforced workplace distancing & masks  early (along with testing, testing, testing) and Singapore, are experiencing trouble with a second wave.

What is the new idea or point you are presenting to get better control?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## davidvel (Aug 8, 2020)

TravelAmore said:


> So your point is we should not do shutdowns in the US?
> Didn’t several states do that? Didn’t the US pretty much do that in Feb & March?
> 
> Even the countries that managed to get control early, like South Korea - which did NOT shut everything down but banned crowds, quarantined promptly w/contact tracing, and, enforced workplace distancing & masks  early (along with testing, testing, testing) and Singapore, are experiencing trouble with a second wave.
> ...


I didn't know some states never shut down. Which are those?


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 8, 2020)

TravelAmore said:


> So your point is we should not do shutdowns in the US?
> Didn’t several states do that? Didn’t the US pretty much do that in Feb & March?
> 
> Even the countries that managed to get control early, like South Korea - which did NOT shut everything down but banned crowds, quarantined promptly w/contact tracing, and, enforced workplace distancing & masks  early (along with testing, testing, testing) and Singapore, are experiencing trouble with a second wave.
> ...


I do not think it is a new idea. People have been saying it since March, including some leading scientists: isolate the ones at risk and let the others else roam more or less freely with some precautions. The amusing part was that it was labelled as fringe science even if locking down 330 million people  and printing 6 trillion dollars had never been done before and nobody explained what was going to happen after the initial 2 weeks (that became 6 actually).  IMO* that* was a fringe idea.

But I ask everyone and nobody can give me an answer: If locking down the country was the only solution (and apparently it has to be done again according to some), how come Sweden's numbers are not 20 times higher? How come the virus did not spread exponentially as we were told it was going to happen?

When I started the thread, Sweden was number 15 if you ranked  countries and states by deaths/1 million people. Currently it is number 21, in few days it will probably be 25th and in a month 28th-30th. How come?


----------



## cman (Aug 8, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> When I started the thread, Sweden was number 15 if you ranked countries and states by deaths/1 million people. Currently it is number 21, in few days it will probably be 25th...


Not sure the logic in comparing the states to other countries, but I'll play along.

By including the individual states in your list of countries we now have about 250 jurisdictions. If Sweden is the 15th, 21st or 25th worse, I don'see that as being successful. The 25th worse out of 250 is nothing to brag about. That's what most people would call a failure.

Here's where Sweden is in terms of deaths/million when compared to the other 200 countries in the world. Is this successful?





Compared to their neigbors, it gets worse.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 8, 2020)

cman said:


> Not sure the logic in comparing the states to other countries, but I'll play along.
> 
> By including the individual states in your list of countries we now have about 250 jurisdictions. If Sweden is the 15th, 21st or 25th worse, I don'see that as being successful. The 25th worse out of 250 is nothing to brag about. That's what most people would call a failure.
> 
> Here's where Sweden is in terms of deaths/million when compared to the other 200 countries in the world. Is this successful?


*1) “All these countries recommending face masks haven’t made their decisions based on new studies,” Bundgaard said in an interview in Copenhagen.*

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/face-mask-photo-op-adds-to-bewilderment-over-non-use-in-denmark

Denmark is actually  a lot closer in its approach to Sweden  than you think. Denmark opened schools in April and even now it is not recommending masks, even indoors, just in "special" situations.  You are weakening your case by talking about Denmark IMO.









						How reopened schools in Denmark keep children safely apart
					

What's it like in a school that has re-opened? Denmark and Germany show how it might look.



					www.bbc.com
				






Again,  most of their deaths in Sweden are at the beginning of the pandemic in March, April and May, and they had nothing to do with the lack of lockdowns .   If you look at the states that had a lot of cases at the beginning like NY and NJ, their deaths/day curve looks identical with Sweden and *they peaked at the same time,* even if those states entered into a lockdown. You keep on comparing Danmark and Sweden, just Sweden started from a much worse place, like NJ and NY. In the United States,  there is also almost no correlation between the states that have had the toughest lockdowns and measures and the number of deaths per capita. Most of the most relaxed jurisdictions are actually at the bottom of the list.
















2) Most countries do not have reliable data. Put on a list the ones _you _trust and I would be surprised to see more than on mine, about 25 or 30. Brasil, Mexico or Iran (and 170 others) are not at the top of your chart not because of the actual  number of cases is low.


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## Roger830 (Aug 9, 2020)

"On one key measure – percentage change in new confirmed cases over the past fortnight relative to the previous 14 days – Sweden is down more than a third. 
This contrasts with sharp rises in neighboring Denmark, Finland and Norway, along with countries such as Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.
Meanwhile, the latest data suggests Sweden is suffering less severe economic trauma than most major European nations, while it has, almost uniquely among Western countries, kept schools open. "









						Why Sweden, pilloried for refusing to lock down, may have last laugh
					

IAN BIRRELL: As infections spike again in places that locked down, where schools struggle to reopen and the economic carnage grows clearer, is it possible Sweden made the right long-term call?




					www.dailymail.co.uk


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## DeniseM (Aug 9, 2020)

Who has been to Sweden? Did you like it? Does it have timeshares?


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## TravelTime (Aug 9, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Who has been to Sweden? Did you like it? Does it have timeshares?



I was in Stockholm once. It is a very big, busy city with European charm. It is not all that different than Copenhagen or Amsterdam.


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## DeniseM (Aug 9, 2020)

A lot of people speak English, right?


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## DeniseM (Aug 9, 2020)

HAPPY HIJACK: Post one thing you know about Sweden without looking it up:  GO!


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## DeniseM (Aug 9, 2020)

1) In central California, early Swedish settlers often started dairys.


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## Brett (Aug 9, 2020)

I like* IKEA* !


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## slip (Aug 9, 2020)

One thing that I know about Sweden is that I have never been there.


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## AwayWeGo (Aug 9, 2020)

Swedish E.R. Doctor's Experience.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​


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## Country Roads (Aug 9, 2020)

Brett said:


> I like* IKEA* !


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## TravelTime (Aug 9, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> A lot of people speak English, right?



It was the one city where people would look at me and start talking to me in Swedish.


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## DeniseM (Aug 9, 2020)

Swedish meatballs are made with hamburger, rice, and gravy.


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## Brett (Aug 9, 2020)

My son visited Sweden and Norway and brought back canned reindeer meat ...... ugh


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## PcflEZFlng (Aug 9, 2020)

I've never been to Sweden but I've been to Minnesota!   Does that kinda-sorta count?


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## DannyTS (Aug 9, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> HAPPY HIJACK: Post one thing you know about Sweden without looking it up:  GO!


any publicity is good publicity


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## Brett (Aug 9, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> any publicity is good publicity



another (cannot be mentioned) person would agree with you that "any publicity is good publicity"


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## Mcjohan (Aug 9, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Swedish meatballs are made with hamburger, rice, and gravy.


Nooooo!  Meatballs are made of beef & pork, served with boiled or mashed potatoes (not rice!), lingonberry jam & cream gravy.

FYI...I’m from Sweden & I wasn’t going to get involved in this thread but when it comes to food I just have to speak up ; )


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## DeniseM (Aug 9, 2020)

Thanks, Mcjohan - I probably make an Americanize version!  We'd love your authentic recipe!


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## Ken555 (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> HAPPY HIJACK: Post one thing you know about Sweden without looking it up: GO!



Stockholm is beautiful (and the Vasa Museum is fantastic). Visit!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## CO skier (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> HAPPY HIJACK: Post one thing you know about Sweden without looking it up:  GO!


Blondes DO have more fun.


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## DeniseM (Aug 10, 2020)

Mcjohan - Can you please post your recipe for authentic Swedish meatballs?  I want to make it.


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## DannyTS (Aug 10, 2020)

Thank you Denise for contributing,  a ratio of 2 Swedish recipes/ 1 Covid comment is about right, the thread was becoming heavy for some. Maybe  the headline could be "Shouldn't epidemiologists *and chefs* revisit the case of Sweden?"

Hold your fire ladies and gentlemen, today another state may pass Sweden in terms of deaths per capita   and I will report it at that time. Do not waste delicious meatball recipes now. You can of course post them now and re-post them later. While you are at it you can also explain why since starting this thread 3 weeks ago, 5 other states passed Sweden on the same metric .


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## PigsDad (Aug 10, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Thank you Denise for contributing,  a ratio of 2 Swedish recipes/ 1 Covid comment is about right, the thread was becoming heavy for some. Maybe  the headline could be "Shouldn't epidemiologists *and chefs* revisit the case of Sweden?"


I'm finding it hilarious that those who berated me a short while ago for supposedly hijacking a different thread are now openly hijacking this thread.      

Oh, BTW, here is a good Swedish Meatball receipe:

*Meatballs:*

1/3 cup breadcrumbs
1/2 cup (125ml) milk
35 ml cream
1 large egg
1 clove minced garlic,
1/3 teaspoon salt
1/4 teaspoon EACH of black pepper and ground white pepper
1/4 teaspoon Grillkrydda OR all spice OR all purpose seasoning
1/2 of an onion, finely chopped
1 pound (500 g) ground beef (mince)
1/2 pound (250 g) ground pork (mince)
2 tablespoons fresh, finely chopped parsley
1 tablespoon butter
2 teaspoons olive oil
*Gravy Sauce (OPTIONAL):*

1/3 cup butter
1/4 cup plain / all purpose flour
250 ml (1 cup) vegetable broth (or stock)
250 ml (1 cup) beef broth (or stock)
1 cup thickened (or heavy) cream*
2 teaspoons regular soy sauce
1 teaspoon dijon mustard
Salt and pepper, to season
*INSTRUCTIONS*

In a large bowl, mix the breadcrumbs together with the milk, cream (If using), egg, garlic, salt, peppers and spice. Allow the milk to soak into the breadcrumbs for at least 10 minutes.
Once the milk has absorbed some, add in the onion, meat(s) and parsley. Mix well with your hands to combine.
Roll meat into about 24 small balls, or 16 larger balls.
Heat 1 tablespoons of butter and 2 teaspoons of oil in a pan on medium-high heat. Fry meatballs in batches of two so they don’t stew or simmer. Transfer to a warm plate and cover with foil.
Add the 1/3 cup butter to the juices in the pan to melt. Whisk in the flour until it dissolves and turns brown in colour. Pour in the broth (or stock), cream, soy sauce and dijon. Bring to a to simmer and season with salt and pepper to taste. Mix the sauce through well to combine all of the flavours together.
Continue to simmer until thickened.

*To serve:*

*Non Swedish way*: Place meatballs into the gravy in the pan and serve
*Traditional Swedish way*: Do not make the cream sauce at all. Serve meatballs over plain or stewed macaroni, plain or mashed potatoes, and lingenberry jam (optional)
*NOTES*
*Replace heavy or thickened cream with reduced fat cream if you wish to reduce calories)1) I use a mixture of ground beef and pork (mince) in may recipe, but you can use all beef is you don't have or like pork 2) To make the meatballs lower in carbs, use almond meal to replace the breadcrumbs. Also, use 1 tablespoon of cornstarch mixed with 2 tablespoons of water to replace the flour in the gravy sauce. Just add the cornstarch mixture at the end, while continuously stirring, over low heat until sauce has thickened.3) I like to grate my garlic clove with the small part of a grater. You can use minced garlic if you prefer.


Kurt


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## DeniseM (Aug 10, 2020)

Hi PigsDad - Yes, I've gone to the dark side.  My new mission in life is to hijack off the rail threads with HAPPY HAPPY posts.


----------



## PigsDad (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Hi PigsDad - Yes, I've gone to the dark side.  My new mission in life is to hijack off the rail threads with HAPPY HAPPY posts.


And setting such a good example as a moderator. 

Kurt


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## jme (Aug 10, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Thank you Denise for contributing,  a ratio of 2 Swedish recipes/ 1 Covid comment is about right, the thread was becoming heavy for some. Maybe  the headline could be "Shouldn't epidemiologists *and chefs* revisit the case of Sweden?"
> 
> Hold your fire ladies and gentlemen, today another state may pass Sweden in terms of deaths per capita   and I will report it at that time. Do not waste delicious meatball recipes now. You can of course post them now and re-post them later.
> *While you are at it you can also explain why since starting this thread 3 weeks ago, 5 other states passed Sweden on the same metric .*



That's easy........it's the meatballs.........gotta be something in there, the relationship is just too obvious.


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## Ken555 (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Hi PigsDad - Yes, I've gone to the dark side.  My new mission in life is to hijack off the rail threads with HAPPY HAPPY posts.


----------



## Brett (Aug 10, 2020)

I wish the IKEA food court was open  






https://sweden.se/society/why-swedes-are-okay-with-paying-taxes


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## DeniseM (Aug 10, 2020)

Actually, I have a lot of potates and chicken that I'd like to use tonight - does anyone have a good Instantpot recipe that uses chicken and potatoes?


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## Ken555 (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Actually, I have a lot of potates and chicken that I'd like to use tonight - does anyone have a good Instantpot recipe that uses chicken and potatoes?



This is my next instant pot chicken recipe to try (note: no potatoes): https://www.pressurecookrecipes.com/instant-pot-lemon-chicken/


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## DeniseM (Aug 10, 2020)

Thanks, Ken!  Keep them coming!  It's 100 degrees in Central, CA at dinner time, so I don't like to use the oven.


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## DeniseM (Aug 10, 2020)

Do you subscribe to that website?  Do you like it?


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## Ken555 (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Do you subscribe to that website?  Do you like it?



I like the allrecipes.com app and site, and a few others but tend to just google for whatever I'm in the mood to cook and then look at a few sites. There are several very good recipe sites I've found in the last few months (I've never cooked as much at home before this year...). This is also on my list (perhaps tonight! I'll use monkfruit instead of sugar.): https://www.365daysofcrockpot.com/instant-pot-chocolate-chip-zucchini-banana-bread/


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## Ken555 (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Do you subscribe to that website?  Do you like it?



Here's another link I have stored in my "Pandemic Recipes" list you might enjoy:








						50 Easy & Tasty Instant Pot Recipes (Beginner Friendly!) | Tested by Amy + Jacky
					

Handpicked list of Tried & True Instant Pot Recipes with Step-by-Step instructions, tips, & videos. Easy to make & delicious to eat.




					www.pressurecookrecipes.com


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## DeniseM (Aug 10, 2020)

Oh my gosh, that looks good!


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## grupp (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Thanks, Ken!  Keep them coming!  It's 100 degrees in Central, CA at dinner time, so I don't like to use the oven.


 
Just curious as to why you don't start a new discussion or is the goal just to be a PIA?


----------



## dmbrand (Aug 10, 2020)

If you find yourself in yooperland....stop in at Swedish Pantry in downtown Escanaba, MI. Love the food and atmosphere at this restaurant. From the menu......

Dinner

Traditional Swedish Dinners
Plates served with salad or vegetable and your choice of potato. Dinners served with soup or salad, your choice of potato, vegetable, bread pudding or rice pudding and slice of our homemade bread. Potato choices are Swedish fries, real mashed potatoes, baby red potatoes or baked potato. Vegetable choices are peas, carrots, creamed corn, green beans or rutabaga.

Swedish Sampler
Meatballs, potato sausage and mini potato dumpling served with rutabagas and coleslaw.
Plate $12.99 Dinner $13.99

Kottbullar
Swedish meatballs sided with lingonberries and served with choice of potato and vegetable or salad.
Plate $11.99 Dinner $13.99

Kroppkakor
Ham-stuffed potato dumplings served with vegetable, salad and lingonberries.
Plate $10.99 Dinner $12.99

Patatiskorv
Potato sausage served with vegetable, salad and lingonberries.
Plate $10.99 Dinner $12.99


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## DeniseM (Aug 10, 2020)

grupp said:


> Just curious as to why you don't start a new discussion or is the goal just to be a PIA?



I just want to share the love with all my new friends on the dark side!


----------



## Ken555 (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Oh my gosh, that looks good!



And on the topic of Sweden, the restaurant I enjoyed most in Stockholm was https://www.slingerbulten.com/ - just look at the menu!


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## jme (Aug 10, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> And on the topic of Sweden, the restaurant I enjoyed most in Stockholm was https://www.slingerbulten.com/ - just look at the menu!



Think that might be the Stockholm Syndrome playing out?


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## Mcjohan (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Mcjohan - Can you please post your recipe for authentic Swedish meatballs?  I want to make it.


The recipe posted by pigsdad is almost identical to my recipe!  Unfortunately I’m a lazy cook so I buy the packages of IKEA gravy when I go there to stock up on lingonberry jam.  The IKEA meatballs are ok, but homemade are much better.  In a pinch cranberry sauce can be used instead of lingonberry.


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## DannyTS (Aug 10, 2020)

jme said:


> That's easy........it's the meatballs.........gotta be something in there, the relationship is just too obvious.


I am not surprised you say that, this is what most people believe.


----------



## Brett (Aug 10, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I am not surprised you say that, this is what most people believe.



it's all about the meatballs 





https://sweden.se/society/why-swedes-are-okay-with-paying-taxes/


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## jme (Aug 10, 2020)

> *jme said: *That's easy........it's the meatballs.........gotta be something in there, the relationship is just too obvious.





> DannyTS said:
> I am not surprised you say that, this is what most people believe.





Brett said:


> it's all about the meatballs
> 
> View attachment 24799
> 
> https://sweden.se/society/why-swedes-are-okay-with-paying-taxes/




Can't argue with science.  Badddd strategy.


----------



## grupp (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> I just want to share the love with all my new friends on the dark side!


 
Hmm, guess I still don't get it, maybe some kind of inside joke. General, it is considered rude to do this, but maybe it is okay since you are a moderator. Wouldn't it just be easier to close the thread if you don't like it?


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 10, 2020)

grupp said:


> Hmm, guess I still don't get it, maybe some kind of inside joke. General, it is considered rude to do this, but maybe it is okay since you are a moderator. Wouldn't it just be easier to close the thread if you don't like it?



I double that. I think she should close the thread.


----------



## DeniseM (Aug 10, 2020)

grupp said:


> Hmm, guess I still don't get it, maybe some kind of inside joke. General, it is considered rude to do this, but maybe it is okay since you are a moderator. Wouldn't it just be easier to close the thread if you don't like it?


I'm trying a new strategy!  If you can't beat'em - join-em!


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## Glynda (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Who has been to Sweden? Did you like it? Does it have timeshares?


----------



## Brett (Aug 10, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I double that. I think she should close the thread.



don't you want to see my nature /  butterfly photos ?





https://sweden.se/society/why-swedes-are-okay-with-paying-taxes


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## Glynda (Aug 10, 2020)

I did like it. It was lovely. Don't know. We were there one day off a cruise ship.


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## PigsDad (Aug 10, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> I'm trying a new strategy!  If you can't beat'em - join-em!


Or you could just ignore the "offensive" threads and let those that want to continue the discussion to do so in peace.  Or are you so self-absorbed that you feel the need to be involved when you are clearly not interested in the conversation?  Seems similar to a toddler acting out for attention.

Kurt


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## PigsDad (Aug 10, 2020)

@DannyTS, I think you, as the originator of this thread, have the right to ask that it be closed for further discussion if you want to do so.  A moderator will close it for you (or at least they used to do that in more civilized times ).

Kurt


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## grupp (Aug 10, 2020)

I actually think this is an interesting topic and appreciate different points of view. Also didn’t think it got overly political or mean spirited.


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## Glynda (Aug 10, 2020)

Mcjohan said:


> The recipe posted by pigsdad is almost identical to my recipe!  Unfortunately I’m a lazy cook so I buy the packages of IKEA gravy when I go there to stock up on lingonberry jam.  The IKEA meatballs are ok, but homemade are much better.  In a pinch cranberry sauce can be used instead of lingonberry.



I've only been in one IKEA (Atlanta) but gravy at IKEA?  Really?


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## Glynda (Aug 10, 2020)

grupp said:


> Hmm, guess I still don't get it, maybe some kind of inside joke. General, it is considered rude to do this, but maybe it is okay since you are a moderator. Wouldn't it just be easier to close the thread if you don't like it?



Why? So many of us are enjoying it now!  We could post beautiful photos of our trips to Sweden, recipes, favorite shopping spots, restaurants, etc., and maybe even learn so much more!

I think the discussion of Sweden's approach to the virus has died the death of a thousand qualifications and all that's left are some  who find an article that fits their predetermined conclusion and dig their heels in.


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## Brett (Aug 10, 2020)

Glynda said:


> Why? So many of us are enjoying it now!  We could post beautiful photos of our trips to Sweden, recipes, favorite shopping spots, restaurants, etc., and maybe even learn so much more!
> 
> I think the discussion of Sweden's approach to the virus has died the death of a thousand qualifications and all that's left are some  who find an article that fits their predetermined conclusion and dig their heels in.




yep


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## PigsDad (Aug 10, 2020)

grupp said:


> I actually think this is an interesting topic and appreciate different points of view. Also didn’t think it got overly political or mean spirited.


I guess a single person decided that if she did not find the conversation interesting, no one should be allowed to continue the discussion in peace.  That is what this forum has evidently now become. 

Kurt


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## PigsDad (Aug 10, 2020)

Glynda said:


> Why? So many of us are enjoying it now!  We could post beautiful photos of our trips to Sweden, recipes, favorite shopping spots, restaurants, etc., and maybe even learn so much more!


So why not start a new thread?

Kurt


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## Brett (Aug 10, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> I guess a single person decided that if she did not find the conversation interesting, no one should be allowed to continue the discussion in peace.  That is what this forum has evidently now become.
> 
> Kurt



But do these perpetual coronavirus threads really continue in *'peace"*





https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sweden...den-example-of-how-not-to-deal-with-covid-19/


----------



## PigsDad (Aug 10, 2020)

Brett said:


> But do these perpetual coronavirus threads really continue in *'peace"*
> 
> View attachment 24812
> 
> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sweden...den-example-of-how-not-to-deal-with-covid-19/


They would if certain people would quit posting the same thing over and over again and ignore them.  

Kurt


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## Brett (Aug 10, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> They would if certain people would ignore them.
> 
> Kurt



right .....    just ignore those elephants !


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 10, 2020)

I will come back to respond to some of the comments. In the meantime, I found this article very interesting:

“We try to put measures in place that are sustainable over time, instead of jumping from extremely high level of measures to no levels at all,” Tegnell told the _Observer_. “Lifting and closing things is really detrimental to trust and will also have a lot more negative effects than keeping some kind of level of measures all the time. Opening and closing schools, for example, would be disastrous.” 

“Since we have seen how the disease is acting very much locally, it doesn’t really make sense to have measures that affect the whole country,” he said. “But on the other hand, I think it is important to have a level of measures in place nationwide.” 









						Sweden's Covid expert warns UK: opening and closing schools would be disastrous
					

State infectious disease specialist warns closing pubs and schools could be ‘disastrous in many ways’




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Glynda (Aug 10, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> So why not start a new thread?
> 
> Kurt



Because this one needs a little levity.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 11, 2020)

Unfortunately now Arizona also has more deaths per 1 million than Sweden. The good news is that the number of new cases has been going down in the last few days.


----------



## Brett (Aug 11, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Unfortunately now Arizona also has more deaths per 1 million than Sweden. The good news is that the number of new cases has been going down in the last few days.




But what about New Zealand .... are they better than Arizona and/or Sweden ?





https://www.marketwatch.com/story/n...tbreak-following-weeks-of-no-cases-2020-08-11


----------



## DeniseM (Aug 11, 2020)

Hi boys and girls - I didn't want you to feel left out!  I'm still your new best friend on the Dark Side!  TTYL! HUGS!


----------



## grupp (Aug 11, 2020)

Brett said:


> But what about New Zealand .... are they better than Arizona and/or Sweden ?
> 
> View attachment 24827
> 
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/n...tbreak-following-weeks-of-no-cases-2020-08-11



Is your point that the strict lock down didn’t work since Covid has returned and need to lock down again?


----------



## DeniseM (Aug 11, 2020)

I just went outside to do a little watering, and there was a beautiful butterfly on my Butterfly Bush!  During times like this, we have to enjoy the little things:


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 11, 2020)

DeniseM said:


> Hi boys and girls - I didn't want you to feel left out!  I'm still your new best friend on the Dark Side!  TTYL! HUGS!


Denise, we know we will always be in your heart and mind, you do not even have to mention it.


----------



## Brett (Aug 11, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Denise, we know we will always be in your heart and mind, you do not even have to mention it.





DeniseM said:


> I just went outside to do a little watering, and there was a beautiful butterfly on my Butterfly Bush!  During times like this, we have to enjoy the little things:



nice !

 tiger swallowtail butterfly


----------



## DeniseM (Aug 11, 2020)

Thanks, Brett!  I was wondering what it was!


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 11, 2020)

Brett said:


> But what about New Zealand .... are they better than Arizona and/or Sweden ?
> 
> View attachment 24827
> 
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/n...tbreak-following-weeks-of-no-cases-2020-08-11



This is shocking. Last thing I read was New Zealand had no Covid cases and was being held out as a model country. I guess this shows no countries should celebrate too soon and no countries should criticize others.


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## Conan (Aug 14, 2020)

Sweden and TUG. Can’t see one without thinking of the other.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294243540059529218


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 14, 2020)

Conan said:


> Sweden and TUG. Can’t see one without thinking of the other.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294243540059529218



While he is very distinguished, Paul Krugman is a politically-biased economist. I read his column in NYT periodically and he has some pretty far left opinions.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 15, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> While he is very distinguished, Paul Krugman is a politically-biased economist. I read his column in NYT periodically and he has some pretty far left opinions.


I think he has also been wrong more than any other economist. Those that followed his advise (hopefully nobody) would have lost a lot of money in the stock market.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 15, 2020)

*Did Sweden Accidentally Blunder into COVID-19 Herd Immunity?*










						Did Sweden Accidentally Blunder into COVID-19 Herd Immunity?
					

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Swedish government's chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, denied that his relatively permissive approach...




					reason.com


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 15, 2020)

@Conan this study is looking at the factors that contributed to the number of deaths in Sweden and concluded it has little to do with the lack of a lockdown. By the way, isn't Paul Krugman a New Yorker? Why does he not compare Sweden to New York?









						16 Possible Factors for Sweden’s High COVID Death Rate among the Nordics
					

What accounts for Sweden’s high COVID death rate among the Nordics? One factor could be Sweden’s lighter lockdown. But we suggest 15 other possible factors. Mos



					papers.ssrn.com


----------



## Brett (Aug 15, 2020)

*the idea of "folkvett" -- common sense of the people has failed*




*https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/08/13/Free-spread-of-COVID-19-in-Sweden-didnt-lead-to-herd-immunity/5131597335593*


----------



## Monykalyn (Aug 15, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> @Conan this study is looking at the factors that contributed to the number of deaths in Sweden and concluded it has little to do with the lack of a lockdown. By the way, isn't Paul Krugman a New Yorker? Why does he not compare Sweden to New York?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Isn’t the the largest percentage of cases with deaths in USA occur among nursing homes? I’d look myself but on my iPad (traveling to drop a kid off at college 1000 miles from home). My anecdotal experience is no matter how careful the staff, or how frequent the testing or even when you have enough PPE (and they have way more now than they did in April) covid will eventually strike. Of the 4 long term care homes I work with, 3 have outbreaks. One is winding down on the LTC side but now is over in assisted living side. 2 others are at the beginning, with majority of cases in the memory care unit, and have had 9 deaths past 2 weeks. The other doesn’t have a locked unit and most of the cases are mild or asymptomatic. Staff at all these places don’t have time, money or energy to go out much -if at all- on their “off” days. The majority of deaths in all places are people who were already on hospice as well. 
Hospice doesn’t mean not treat but to make choices for comfort and quality of life vs quantity. I despise the assumption  that “choosing to not treat” (like Sweden supposedly) means the patient had no choice in the matter. Perhaps Sweden is much better at managing end of life care than USA. The amount of people who think hospice means the person is left to rot in pain is appalling. Or that “choosing not to treat” means no comfort measures provided.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 15, 2020)

Brett said:


> *the idea of "folkvett" -- common sense of the people has failed*
> 
> View attachment 24917
> *https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/08/13/Free-spread-of-COVID-19-in-Sweden-didnt-lead-to-herd-immunity/5131597335593*


maybe you (or UPI) can explain why the graph looks like this if Sweden did not reach heard immunity. No lockdown, no mandatory masks, bars and restaurants open, schools open.

deaths per day


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 15, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Isn’t the the largest percentage of cases with deaths in USA occur among nursing homes? I’d look myself but on my iPad (traveling to drop a kid off at college 1000 miles from home). My anecdotal experience is no matter how careful the staff, or how frequent the testing or even when you have enough PPE (and they have way more now than they did in April) covid will eventually strike. Of the 4 long term care homes I work with, 3 have outbreaks. One is winding down on the LTC side but now is over in assisted living side. 2 others are at the beginning, with majority of cases in the memory care unit, and have had 9 deaths past 2 weeks. The other doesn’t have a locked unit and most of the cases are mild or asymptomatic. Staff at all these places don’t have time, money or energy to go out much -if at all- on their “off” days. The majority of deaths in all places are people who were already on hospice as well.
> Hospice doesn’t mean not treat but to make choices for comfort and quality of life vs quantity. I despise the assumption  that “choosing to not treat” (like Sweden supposedly) means the patient had no choice in the matter. Perhaps Sweden is much better at managing end of life care than USA. The amount of people who think hospice means the person is left to rot in pain is appalling. Or that “choosing not to treat” means no comfort measures provided.


I think the same  in Sweden and 70%  of those who died were +80, 90% were +70


----------



## Conan (Aug 15, 2020)

My apologies for triggering another deluge - - seven posts from three people in two hours.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 15, 2020)

Conan said:


> My apologies for triggering another deluge - - seven posts from three people in two hours.


Apologies accepted


----------



## Brett (Aug 15, 2020)

*https://www.thelocal.se/20200716/the-fast-track-to-your-first-swedish-job-internship-sweden-jobbspranget-tlccu*

*

*


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 15, 2020)

Brett said:


> View attachment 24923
> 
> *https://www.thelocal.se/20200716/the-fast-track-to-your-first-swedish-job-internship-sweden-jobbspranget-tlccu*
> 
> *View attachment 24924*


It continues to amaze me that these researchers still ignore that Sweden started from a lot more cases, nothing to do with the lockdown. Please refer to post #231 for details.


----------



## jabberwocky (Aug 15, 2020)

Nordic Children return to school despite rising virus rates.

This may be behind a paywall

https://on.ft.com/3iGryar

“Despite a jump in coronavirus cases among children and young adults, Nordic countries are in increasing agreement on two things: that children should be prioritised over all other age groups; and that they do not appear to spread the virus in a significant way.”


----------



## davidvel (Aug 15, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> *Hospice doesn’t mean not treat* but to make choices for comfort and quality of life vs quantity. I despise the assumption  that “choosing to not treat” (like Sweden supposedly) means the patient had no choice in the matter. Perhaps Sweden is much better at managing end of life care than USA. The amount of people who think hospice means the person is left to rot in pain is appalling. Or that “choosing not to treat” means no comfort measures provided.


Well, sort of.  The patient is choosing not to treat their ongoing condition. Once you transfer to hospice care, medicare no longer pays for treatment of your terminal illness:

_Medicare *won't *cover any of these once your hospice benefit starts:_

_*Treatment intended to cure your terminal illness and/or related conditions.* Talk with your doctor if you're thinking about getting treatment to cure your illness. As a hospice patient, you always have the right to stop hospice care at any time._
_*Prescription drugs to cure your illness* (rather than for symptom control or pain relief)._
_*Care you get as a hospital outpatient (like in an emergency room), care you get as a hospital inpatient, or ambulance transportation*, unless it's either arranged by your hospice team *or is unrelated to your terminal illness and related conditions.*_


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Aug 15, 2020)

The accepted percentage of a population that needs to either contract the flu, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc, per Johns Hopkins is between 70-90%.  so in the US between 233 and 297 million people have to be vacinated or infected for herd immunity for COVID19.  They don't know if that will apply to Covid, but since there is no vaccine at this point we have a long way to go.  Currently the death rate in the US for closed cases, either death or recovery is 6%.  So we would have between 1.4 and 1.8 million deaths.  
Maybe we ought to consider wearing a mask.  Of course the numbers might not turn out that way, but I'm not comfortable gambling.  Figures in my post come from Johns Hopkins and Worldometers.com.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 15, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> The accepted percentage of a population that needs to either contract the flu, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc, per Johns Hopkins is between 70-90%.  so in the US between 233 and 297 million people have to be vacinated or infected for herd immunity for COVID19.  They don't know if that will apply to Covid, but since there is no vaccine at this point we have a long way to go.  Currently the death rate in the US for closed cases, either death or recovery is 6%.  So we would have between 1.4 and 1.8 million deaths.
> Maybe we ought to consider wearing a mask.  Of course the numbers might not turn out that way, but I'm not comfortable gambling.  Figures in my post come from Johns Hopkins and Worldometers.com.



Have you factored in that 40% to 60% of the population may already have some immunity?


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 15, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> The accepted percentage of a population that needs to either contract the flu, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc, per Johns Hopkins is between 70-90%.  so in the US between 233 and 297 million people have to be vacinated or infected for herd immunity for COVID19.  They don't know if that will apply to Covid, but since there is no vaccine at this point we have a long way to go.  Currently the death rate in the US for closed cases, either death or recovery is 6%.  So we would have between 1.4 and 1.8 million deaths.
> Maybe we ought to consider wearing a mask.  Of course the numbers might not turn out that way, but I'm not comfortable gambling.  Figures in my post come from Johns Hopkins and Worldometers.com.


Can you provide a link for that study? It is the first time I hear 90%.


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## davidvel (Aug 16, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> The accepted percentage of a population that needs to either contract the flu, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc, per Johns Hopkins is between 70-90%.  so in the US between 233 and 297 million people have to be vacinated or infected for herd immunity for COVID19.  They don't know if that will apply to Covid, but since there is no vaccine at this point we have a long way to go.  Currently the death rate in the US for closed cases, either death or recovery is 6%.  So we would have between 1.4 and 1.8 million deaths.
> Maybe we ought to consider wearing a mask.  Of course the numbers might not turn out that way, but I'm not comfortable gambling.  Figures in my post come from Johns Hopkins and Worldometers.com.


6% may be the death rate per positive test, but the death rate per infection is certainly far less, probably more than 10x less.


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## jabberwocky (Aug 16, 2020)

davidvel said:


> 6% may be the death rate per positive test, but the death rate per infection is certainly far less, probably more than 10x less.


And keep in mind that was 6% of closed cases (which includes only deaths or marked recoveries). Some jurisdictions are not reporting recoveries - Florida being one - so these would not count as a closed case. As a result the 6% figure is grossly inflated by underestimating the denominator. 

My best guess is that when thing settle down and have better population estimates we will find the actual death rate is below 1%.  The caveat is this death rate percentage is highly age dependent and is higher for those who are older and minuscule for those under age 20.


----------



## Monykalyn (Aug 16, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> And keep in mind that was 6% of closed cases (which includes only deaths or marked recoveries). Some jurisdictions are not reporting recoveries - Florida being one - so these would not count as a closed case. As a result the 6% figure is grossly inflated by underestimating the denominator.
> 
> My best guess is that when thing settle down and have better population estimates we will find the actual death rate is below 1%.  The caveat is this death rate percentage is highly age dependent and is higher for those who are older and minuscule for those under age 20.


I like this site-can play around with it and see lots of data








						Mortality Risk of COVID-19
					

Our interactive data visualizations that show the case fatality rate in each country are updated daily.




					ourworldindata.org
				



case fatality rate in US has dropped.


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## jabberwocky (Aug 16, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I like this site-can play around with it and see lots of data
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That’s a great site. Thanks for sharing!

I was a little disturbed at how poorly Canada does by this metric. Even though we aren’t Sweden - here is the one from our local provincial authority (Alberta). We have one of the most rigorous testing regimes globally. With a population of only 4 million, they’ve managed to run over 800,000 tests involving over 650,000 individuals. Because of the high degree of testing, it’s likely that we are identifying a larger proportion of asymptotic cases. 

As of this past Friday, just over 12,000 people have tested positive since March. Out of that 1938 were older than 60 and 10,115 are under age 60.  

For those over age 60 there have been 216 deaths. This gives a fatality ratio of over 11%. This may seem high, but a large proportion of these deaths are in nursing homes (around 80% of Canadian covid deaths are nursing home related - but that is a different topic). The deaths are also “lumpy” - One nursing home facility has accounted for 29 of the deaths and an outbreak at a local hospital resulted in 11 further deaths of people already hospitalized.

For those under age 60, the picture is much rosier. There have been just 5 deaths for those under age 60 (none under age 20). This represents a fatality rate of just 0.049% (yes, the decimal is in the right place!)

I don’t mean to diminish the seriousness of the disease and I realize it’s very personal for some people, including myself (my 93 year-old grandfather is currently in a facility where they declared an outbreak on August 3).  The fact is that for younger people, the likelihood of a fatal outcome is very small. 




			https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm


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## DannyTS (Aug 16, 2020)

*History to 'vindicate Swedish COVID-19 strategy'*


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## DannyTS (Aug 16, 2020)

(free trial required)
*Sweden’s success shows the true cost of our arrogant, failed establishment*
So now we know: Sweden got it largely right, and the British establishment catastrophically wrong. Anders Tegnell, Stockholm’s epidemiologist-king, has pulled off a remarkable triple whammy: far fewer deaths per capita than Britain, a maintenance of basic freedoms and opportunities, including schooling, and, most strikingly, a recession less than half as severe as our own....









						Sweden’s success shows the true cost of our arrogant, failed establishment
					

Shocking incompetence has unnecessarily wiped billions of pounds from the UK economy




					www.telegraph.co.uk


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## cman (Aug 17, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> (free trial required)
> *Sweden’s success shows the true cost of our arrogant, failed establishment*
> So now we know: Sweden got it largely right, and the British establishment catastrophically wrong.


The lack of logic in that headline is baffling and is not supported by readily available data. The article is comparing Sweden to the UK. A more accurate assessment would be that "both" countries got it wrong. Here's a truncated chart (of about 200 countries), sorted by deaths/million. Out of approximately 200 countries, SWEDEN IS THE 8th WORST IN THE WORLD. The assertion that "Sweden got it right", is ridiculous. Sorry, but I find this, "Sweden success thing", just is not supported by the data. Sort it anyway you like. Take out the countries with questionable data, and guess what? Sweden will still suck. Facts matter, and disinformation is dangerous.

Here's a link to the site. It allows you to sort the countries by any metric you like. You can even narrow it down by continent. Choose any metric you like. Sweden is still going to be one of the worst performers. There's a lot of disinformation out there. Proceed with caution.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 128,728,806 Cases and 2,813,723 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## cman (Aug 17, 2020)

Delete. Replied to wrong post.


----------



## Conan (Aug 17, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> While he is very distinguished, Paul Krugman is a politically-biased economist. I read his column in NYT periodically and he has some pretty far left opinions.


Here's some more data. You can tell me whether it's right, center, or left-wing.




_Figure 1: COVID-19 mortality for countries in the E.U. plus Switzerland, Norway, and the U.K. expressed as the number of COVID-19-related deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Sweden is shown in red. Countries in light red have not enforced lockdowns. Countries in grey have enforced local lockdowns. Countries in black have enforced nationwide lockdowns. Death rates are from Johns Hopkins University. Lockdown policies per country are based on a report from the BBC. Green dots indicate the countries that the Newsweek article included in its comparison with Sweden._





_Figure 2: Case fatality ratio for countries in the E.U., plus Switzerland, the U.K., and Norway. Sweden is shown in red. Countries in light red have not enforced lockdowns. Countries in grey have enforced local lockdowns. Countries in black have enforced nationwide lockdowns. Mortality rates are from Johns Hopkins University. Lockdown policies per country are from the BBC. Green dots indicate the countries that the Newsweek article compared to Sweden._





_Figure 3: Evolution of the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in the countries chosen for comparison in the Newsweek article. The data were retrieved from the Github repository of the Center for System Sciences and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. Data are normalized by the population of each country and smoothed by a 7-day moving average._

Source:








						Sweden’s COVID-19 mortality is higher than in most European countries; no evidence whether or how the absence of lockdown impacted this outcome
					

An analysis of COVID-19 mortality rates shows that Sweden is one of the worst-performing countries in Europe, although Italy, Spain, and the U.K. have experienced higher rates. Countries like Sweden that did not implement lockdowns show a range of mortality rates, making it difficult to...




					healthfeedback.org


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## DannyTS (Aug 17, 2020)

Conan said:


> Here's some more data. You can tell me whether it's right, center, or left-wing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The countries in red are left, right and center on your graph.  You are proving my point, there is no correlation between lockdowns and outcome.


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## Conan (Aug 17, 2020)

Here are highlights from the current leaderboard

CountryCasesDeathsDeaths/100K popBelgium79,000​10,000​87.0​UK320,000​47,000​70.4​Spain343,000​29,000​61.2​Italy254,000​36,000​58.6​Sweden84,000​6,000​56.8​Chile386,000​11,000​55.8​US5,400,000​170,000​52.0​Brazil3,300,000​108,000​51.5​France250,000​30,000​45.4​Netherlands64,000​6,000​36.0​Canada124,000​9,000​24.5​Portugal54,000​1,800​17.3​Germany225,000​9,200​11.1​Denmark16,000​620​10.7​

Personally I would rate countries vs. their peers.

Western Europe Winners: Germany, Portugal
Western Europe Losers: Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy

Northern Europe Winners: Denmark, Netherlands
Northern Europe Loser: Sweden

Loser in a class by itself:
United States

Source:








						Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.




					coronavirus.jhu.edu


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 17, 2020)

Conan said:


> Here are highlights from the current leaderboard
> 
> CountryCasesDeathsDeaths/100K popBelgium79,000​10,000​87.0​UK320,000​47,000​70.4​Spain343,000​29,000​61.2​Italy254,000​36,000​58.6​Sweden84,000​6,000​56.8​Chile386,000​11,000​55.8​US5,400,000​170,000​52.0​Brazil3,300,000​108,000​51.5​France250,000​30,000​45.4​Netherlands64,000​6,000​36.0​Canada124,000​9,000​24.5​Portugal54,000​1,800​17.3​Germany225,000​9,200​11.1​Denmark16,000​620​10.7​
> 
> ...



All these countries have had too many deaths so how can you say some are winners? I doubt the relatives of the countries you are calling winners would agree. To me, they are all losers.

I would not say the USA is a loser in a class by itself based on the data.


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## DannyTS (Aug 17, 2020)

Conan said:


> Here are highlights from the current leaderboard
> 
> CountryCasesDeathsDeaths/100K popBelgium79,000​10,000​87.0​UK320,000​47,000​70.4​Spain343,000​29,000​61.2​Italy254,000​36,000​58.6​Sweden84,000​6,000​56.8​Chile386,000​11,000​55.8​US5,400,000​170,000​52.0​Brazil3,300,000​108,000​51.5​France250,000​30,000​45.4​Netherlands64,000​6,000​36.0​Canada124,000​9,000​24.5​Portugal54,000​1,800​17.3​Germany225,000​9,200​11.1​Denmark16,000​620​10.7​
> 
> ...


If the lockdowns are so wonderful, how do you explain that in the last month states like Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland and others have exceeded handily Sweden  in the number of _total_ deaths per capita and their numbers continue to rise? Have you compared Sweden to Connecticut, your state? How come it has 2.2 times more deaths per capita than Sweden, when Sweden was supposed to be *20 times worse *without a lockdown?

When you compare with the "pears" you will have to consider the spread of the virus in those countries _before_ the lockdowns. According to the CDC, there is a *4-8 week lag* between *contact* and a reported *death*. If you take that into account and acknowledge that most of the reported deaths in Sweden occurred at the beginning of the pandemic, you may conclude that if Sweden  had locked down mid March, it would have saved very few lives if any since most of their deaths occurred before May 15th (the peak was actually April 9th). 

People who advocate against lockdowns say they delay but do not prevent deaths. Many of the countries on your list have had recent surges, and we will have to revisit these ranks in the future. US is projected to exceed Sweden in the next few weeks and the states with the toughest measures are some of the biggest contributors to the stats.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 17, 2020)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-shutters-nightclubs-mandates-masks-as-coronavirus-case-numbers-rise-again/2020/08/17/24e5e2e4-e066-11ea-82d8-5e55d47e90ca_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_virusitaly-1045a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
		


With daily coronavirus case numbers rising, Italy on Monday imposed its first new restrictions on daily life since coming out of lockdown nearly four months ago, ordering the closure of nightclubs and mandating mask-wearing, even outdoors, in areas with nightlife.

The new measures come as Italy faces its most precarious moment of the summer. School is due to start in less than a month, Italians are moving en masse for their August holidays, and tourists are coming in from other European countries that have seen even greater increases......


----------



## grupp (Aug 17, 2020)

Conan said:


> ​
> 
> Personally I would rate countries vs. their peers.
> 
> ...



When did this become a competition? There are no winner or losers, we should be working together and learning from each other as to what worked and what we could have done better. I actually think your "Leader Board" counting the deaths like it is a golf tournament is in very bad taste.


----------



## Conan (Aug 17, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Have you compared Sweden to Connecticut, your state? How come it has 2.2 times more deaths per capita than Sweden...?


I'm not looking for an extended debate or really any debate at all.
No, I haven't compared Sweden to Connecticut, since one is a nation and the other is not.

How come Connecticut's death rate is higher than Sweden's?

1. The virus swept through our nursing homes in the early months of the outbreak. Sweden may be similar, but I think we all know what so-called skilled nursing facilities/nursing homes are like in the US where 1.7 million Americans reside.

2. At the same time, millions of travelers from Europe came into JFK airport, not to mention tens of thousands from China who were exempt from the travel ban.

3. And millions continued to commute to New York City from Connecticut and other surrounding areas.

4. But why should we have worried, since a national leader told us the virus was about to go away?
washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/28/yet-again-trump-pledges-that-coronavirus-will-simply-go-away/?


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## DannyTS (Aug 17, 2020)

Conan said:


> I'm not looking for an extended debate or really any debate at all.
> No, I haven't compared Sweden to Connecticut, since one is a nation and the other is not.
> 
> How come Connecticut's death rate is higher than Sweden's?
> ...



1) very similar, the nursing home were a big problem in Sweden at the beginning. 
2) The Swedes also like to travel and  a lot of them traveled to Europe for their spring break.
3) NYC was also in a lockdown.

But forget about the minor  distinctions, how come Sweden is not 20 times worse than it is now since they did not impose a lockdown, mandatory masks and since they kept bars, restaurants and schools open?


----------



## Ken555 (Aug 17, 2020)

Conan said:


> Loser in a class by itself:
> United States



So true.


----------



## cman (Aug 18, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> If the lockdowns are so wonderful, how do you explain that in the last month states like Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland and others have exceeded handily Sweden  in the number of _total_ deaths per capita and their numbers continue to rise? Have you compared Sweden to Connecticut, your state? How come it has 2.2 times more deaths per capita than Sweden, when Sweden was supposed to be *20 times worse *without a lockdown?
> 
> When you compare with the "pears" you will have to consider the spread of the virus in those countries _before_ the lockdowns. According to the CDC, there is a *4-8 week lag* between *contact* and a reported *death*. If you take that into account and acknowledge that most of the reported deaths in Sweden occurred at the beginning of the pandemic, you may conclude that if Sweden  had locked down mid March, it would have saved very few lives if any since most of their deaths occurred before May 15th (the peak was actually April 9th).
> 
> People who advocate against lockdowns say they delay but do not prevent deaths. Many of the countries on your list have had recent surges, and we will have to revisit these ranks in the future. US is projected to exceed Sweden in the next few weeks and the states with the toughest measures are some of the biggest contributors to the stats.



If you're trying to convince us that lockdowns are not the way to go. Sweden is the worst example you could have picked. We see their numbers and they suck. You'd be better off picking South Korea. They didn't lockdown. They have 6 deaths/million deaths, Sweden has 570 deaths/million. Sweden is close to leading the world in terms of death rate.

I'm just having a hard time following your logic. It's like you've reached a conclusion and only consider information that supports your position.

There are numerous inaccuracies in your post above. I'd hate for tuggers to take your disinformation as factual, so I'll address them tomorrow.


----------



## Brett (Aug 18, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> So true.



But what about New Zealand ?

You’ve seen what’s going on in New Zealand?
It's huge
It's a big surge 
It’s terrible. 
We don’t want that.

https://fortune.com/2020/08/18/new-zealand-covid-new-cases-origin/


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 18, 2020)

cman said:


> If you're trying to convince us that lockdowns are not the way to go. Sweden is the worst example you could have picked. We see their numbers and they suck. You'd be better off picking South Korea. They didn't lockdown. They have 6 deaths/million deaths, Sweden has 570 deaths/million. Sweden is close to leading the world in terms of death rate.
> 
> I'm just having a hard time following your logic. It's like you've reached a conclusion and only consider information that supports your position.
> 
> *There are numerous inaccuracies in your post above*. I'd hate for tuggers to take your disinformation as factual, so I'll address them tomorrow.


I look forward to your comment. And while you are at it, you can also explain why without a lockdown starting mid March the number of deaths peaked in Sweden on April 9th  , why it did not grow exponentially after that and why  it has been going down even since (currently it is virtually zero)

deaths per day Sweden


----------



## joestein (Aug 18, 2020)

I thought the point of the article was that UK and Sweden had similar COVID outcomes, but because Sweden did not lock down, their economy did not take the hit that the UK did.     The author is saying that the UK could have had the same outcome without the 22% hit to their economy.


----------



## Conan (Aug 18, 2020)

Brett said:


> But what about New Zealand ?
> 
> You’ve seen what’s going on in New Zealand?
> It's huge
> ...


I hope this is sarcasm.

New Zealand's 102-day streak of no cases has been broken by 19 new cases in the past week. 
In the US, we get 19 new cases every 20 minutes


----------



## davidvel (Aug 18, 2020)

cman said:


> If you're trying to convince us that lockdowns are not the way to go. Sweden is the worst example you could have picked. We see their numbers and they suck. You'd be better off picking South Korea. They didn't lockdown. They have 6 deaths/million deaths, Sweden has 570 deaths/million. Sweden is close to leading the world in terms of death rate.
> 
> I'm just having a hard time following your logic. It's like you've reached a conclusion and only consider information that supports your position.
> 
> There are numerous inaccuracies in your post above. I'd hate for tuggers to take your disinformation as factual, so I'll address them tomorrow.


I don't thinks Danny's adherence to the idea that maybe lockouts aren't all that they're cracked up to be, isn't that different than many posting here who believe lockups were the only way to go. Just 2 sides of the same coin.

This entire thread makes that quite evident.


----------



## cman (Aug 18, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> And while you are at it, you can also explain why without a lockdown starting mid March the number of deaths peaked in Sweden on April 9th  , why it did not grow exponentially after that and why  it has been going down even since (currently it is virtually zero)



Because of Farr's Law. Google it.


----------



## CPNY (Aug 18, 2020)

This may prove that places like NYC had the virus run through the community before and even during the shut down. Ive made that case many times yet naysayers do their naying and fear peddling. Herd immunity could have been reached a while back which is why there are no spikes in this city. It’s not social distancing measures that I can tell to. People went nuts when Florida opened beaches, when NYC park’s NEVER closed and were packed EVERY nice day during the height of the pandemic in the spring. 









						Coronavirus: Test for Covid-19 T cells immunity developed
					

The test has identified past infection even when an antibodies test is negative, scientists say.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 18, 2020)

davidvel said:


> I don't thinks Danny's adherence to the idea that maybe lockouts aren't all that they're cracked up to be, isn't that different than many posting here who believe lockups were the only way to go. Just 2 sides of the same coin.
> 
> This entire thread makes that quite evident.



This is exactly what I have been thinking. Not just in this thread but throughout TUG. Both sides are just as fanatical but only Danny gets picked on. @DannyTS presents some interesting, counter intuitive view points that are worth considering, even if people do not agree.


----------



## Pathways (Aug 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is exactly what I have been thinking. Not just in this thread but throughout TUG. Both sides are just as fanatical but only Danny gets picked on. @DannyTS presents some interested, counter intuitive view points that are worth considering, even if people do not agree.



Danny's error is he is ahead of his time. (And I believe he is correct about Sweden)

It's a slow process to where Sweden was the worst, to where they may end up being one of the best.  And the Swedish advantage (other than to each person individually) will be mostly in the educational areas, which is still hard to prove.  It will be very difficult to make a case economically, since even if Sweden never required anything to shut down, they are still tied so closely to the EU countries who did, they had a lot of things shut down due to lack of outside supplies.


----------



## cman (Aug 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is exactly what I have been thinking. Not just in this thread but throughout TUG. Both sides are just as fanatical but only Danny gets picked on. @DannyTS presents some interested, counter intuitive view points that are worth considering, even if people do not agree.


Not sure which thread you're talking about, but I don't see anyone getting "picked on". Danny started this thread and has provided a lot of data to support his position. Others have provided a wealth of information with an opposing view. This has been an informative thread. So please, let's keep on topic. Nobody is picking on anyone.


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Aug 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is exactly what I have been thinking. Not just in this thread but throughout TUG. Both sides are just as fanatical but only Danny gets picked on. @DannyTS presents some interested, counter intuitive view points that are worth considering, even if people do not agree.


I agree.  People are picking on him.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 18, 2020)

cman said:


> Not sure which thread you're talking about, but I don't see anyone getting "picked on". Danny started this thread and has provided a lot of data to support his position. Others have provided a wealth of information with an opposing view. This has been an informative thread. So please, let's keep on topic. Nobody is picking on anyone.



OMG, he is probably the most picked on Tugger. BTW, didn’t you get the news that straying off topic is now allowed on TUG? It Is the new in thing.


----------



## cman (Aug 18, 2020)

Here's an interesting quote from epidemiologist leading Sweden's C19 response;

In June, Tegnell conceded that too many citizens had died. "If we were to encounter the same disease again... I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," he said.









						Emails from Sweden's Fauci reveal discussions about now-failed plan to reach "herd immunity"
					

"I believe thousands are already infected in Sweden... it will all come to an end when so many have been infected and become therefore immune that the virus has nowhere else to go," one email read.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 18, 2020)

cman said:


> Because of Farr's Law. Google it.




I take your comments seriously but you do not even attempt to explain why in Sweden the top of the bell was on April 9th  when the number of deaths/day  peaked (3 weeks after the lockdowns started in many countries), or why the number of deaths/day has been going down ever since and why they never had a second wave. You do not attempt to explain why the amplitude of the curve is not 20 times worse, as predicted by the modelers at the beginning of the pandemic and one of the main reasons to lock down.

No sir, the Far's law only explains the shape of the curve, a bell, which I never disputed, and you do not explain anything else.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 18, 2020)

CPNY said:


> This may prove that places like NYC had the virus run through the community before and even during the shut down. Ive made that case many times yet naysayers do their naying and fear peddling. Herd immunity could have been reached a while back which is why there are no spikes in this city. It’s not social distancing measures that I can tell to. People went nuts when Florida opened beaches, when NYC park’s NEVER closed and were packed EVERY nice day during the height of the pandemic in the spring.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is very interesting and very important. We all know that you need +60% to reach herd immunity but it isn't important how you get there. Some people may have antibodies related to C19 exposure, others may have acquired T-Cell immunity during this pandemic or through previous Corona type viruses.

The fact that Sweden and NY have not had a second wave (yet) does support the idea that their overall immunity is much wider than the one that can be currently measured through antibody testing.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> OMG, he is probably the most picked on Tugger. BTW, didn’t you get the news that straying off topic is now allowed on TUG? It Is the new in thing.


Thank you and others who  supported me even when you did not agree with my comments. I have been called delusional, Chicken Little, liar, bs, dishonest,  manufacturing data etc .  Many of those derogatory comments were instantly liked by 3-4  (usually the same people). I would have stopped posting on TUG but I believe that the community is much larger than those individuals and that others may benefit from my comments as I benefit from theirs.
My main sin was posting ideas they did not agree with.


----------



## Brett (Aug 18, 2020)

Conan said:


> I hope this is sarcasm.
> 
> New Zealand's 102-day streak of no cases has been broken by 19 new cases in the past week.
> In the US, we get 19 new cases every 20 minutes



sarcasm ?

it's a direct quote by an "_unmentionable_" person yesterday ... 
google it !


----------



## Cornell (Aug 18, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Thank you and others who  supported me even when you did not agree with my comments. I have been called delusional, Chicken Little, liar, bs, manufacturing data etc .  Many of those derogatory comments were instantly liked by 3-4  (usually the same people). I would have stopped posting on TUG but I believe that the community is much larger than those individuals and that others may benefit from my comments as I benefit from theirs.
> My main sin was posting ideas they did not agree with.


I admire you for keeping on.....


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 18, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Thank you and others who  supported me even when you did not agree with my comments. I have been called delusional, Chicken Little, liar, bs, dishonest,  manufacturing data etc .  Many of those derogatory comments were instantly liked by 3-4  (usually the same people). I would have stopped posting on TUG but I believe that the community is much larger than those individuals and that others may benefit from my comments as I benefit from theirs.
> My main sin was posting ideas they did not agree with.



Keep it coming. We need to hear different viewpoints.


----------



## Ken555 (Aug 18, 2020)

@DeniseM, look, a butterfly!







Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Brett (Aug 18, 2020)

look ... another butterfly  

(Monarch)


----------



## Pathways (Aug 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I admire you for keeping on....






TravelTime said:


> We need to hear different viewpoints.



And if you don't like those viewpoints, do like an 8 yo does: take the ball and go home ==(or post meaningless pictures)


----------



## Brett (Aug 18, 2020)

Pathways said:


> And if you don't like those viewpoints, do like an 8 yo does: take the ball and go home ==(or post meaningless pictures)




right on 





*https://newsroom.uvahealth.com/2020/07/03/covid-19-deaths-in-sweden/*

*

*


----------



## Ken555 (Aug 18, 2020)

Naturally, it's way too early to know if Sweden was right or wrong. Leading indicators show it was wrong. 

From August 11, 2020:





						SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class research journals
					

Subscription and open access journals from SAGE Publishing, the world's leading independent academic publisher.




					journals.sagepub.com
				






> If we now make judgements about the first four months (so not as Sweden would wish us to do), what has happened in Sweden and the other Scandinavian countries is instructive. Table 3 lists in detail the different measures taken and their timings in Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway, while Figure 1a shows the ‘severity’ score for each country’s plans, as well as some of the data about the impact these measures had on the relevant populations. The inter-country disparities in cases of infection and mortality – with Sweden clearly having many more infections and fatalities (see Table 1 and Figure 1b); this is something that has seriously concerned the other members of the Scandinavian family.27 It is clear that not only are the rates of viral infection, hospitalisation and mortality (per million population) much higher than those seen in neighbouring Scandinavian countries, but also that the time-course of the epidemic in Sweden is different, with continued persistence of higher infection and mortality (as one is inexorably linked to the other) well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway, whose rapid lock-down measures seem to have been initially more successful in curtailing the infection surge.





> Despite the above critical remarks, there is neither justification for _schadenfreude,_ nor for Swedes to feel unduly sheepish about their _folkvett_. Lest this strategy seem like just the traditional risky Swedish exceptionalism, we in the UK would do well to remember we nearly trod the same path. Right now, despite ‘strict (but tardy) lock-down’ in the UK, and the more measured Swedish response, both countries have high seven-day averaged SARS-CoV-2 death rates when compared to other Scandinavian and European countries (see Table 1 and Figure 1). *Only once we can fully understand both the pandemic and the impact of the measures that were taken – after 1–2 years at least – can we then begin fairly to judge what was done correctly.*


----------



## Ken555 (Aug 18, 2020)

Stop Trying To Make ‘Herd Immunity’ Happen: Sweden’s Attempt At Covid-19 Herd Immunity Failed









						Stop Trying To Make ‘Herd Immunity’ Happen: Sweden’s Attempt At Covid-19 Herd Immunity Failed
					

Health authorities predicted that 40% of the Stockholm population would have had the disease and acquired antibodies by May 2020. The actual prevalence figure is around 15%.




					www.forbes.com
				






> Health authorities predicted that 40% of the Stockholm population would have had the disease and acquired antibodies by May 2020. According to the study, the actual prevalence figure is only around 15%.





> As Devi Sridhar, a professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told NPR: "Nobody wants to be part of the herd".
> 
> And that’s most likely why any attempts to reach herd immunity will fail.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 18, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Stop Trying To Make ‘Herd Immunity’ Happen: Sweden’s Attempt At Covid-19 Herd Immunity Failed


The studies you are referring to only tested for antibodies and they do not tell the whole story. Here is an article about T-cells









						Don't panic about waning coronavirus immunity: Your T cells go to bat when antibodies disappear
					

Antibodies don't tell the whole story about coronavirus immunity. Some people who've never had COVID-19 have T cells that can recognize the virus.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




And this is another one that describes immunity from other Corona viruses. *"The study, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, found that among a sample of 68 healthy adults in Germany who had not been exposed to the coronavirus, 35% had T cells in their blood that were reactive to the virus. ". *This may also explain why countries and states with similar measures have very different numbers of infected and dead people, just because exposure to past viruses was different.








						Why some people who haven't had Covid-19 might already have some immunity | CNN
					

The immune systems of some people who have not been exposed to the novel coronavirus could have some familiarity with the pathogen -- possibly helping to reduce the severity of illness if that person does get Covid-19, a new study suggests.




					www.cnn.com
				




If this is true, a country can reach herd immunity even if the antibody tests only show a prevalence much lower than 60%. I am not going to touch about the other topic you bring up, the comparison with the other Nordic countries. We already discussed it here at lenght so you can read the earlier comments. Suffice to say, when those countries locked down, Sweden already had a lot more spread in the country and a lockdown would have not changed that reality.


----------



## CPNY (Aug 19, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> This is very interesting and very important. We all know that you need +60% to reach herd immunity but it isn't important how you get there. Some people may have antibodies related to C19 exposure, others may have acquired T-Cell immunity during this pandemic or through previous Corona type viruses.
> 
> The fact that Sweden and NY have not had a second wave (yet) does support the idea that their overall immunity is much wider than the one that can be currently measured through antibody testing.


Precisely. Other states may have shut down too soon, now allowing the virus to get into the community. When they reopened they were seeing their first wave. We just happened to have testing widely available for their first wave where we didn’t in NY. Had we had that same testing availability to all New Yorkers even though the gov hotline that was set up was faulty, many were not able to be tested. If we did, NY cases would be in the millions.


----------



## Conan (Aug 19, 2020)

Yale University currently plans to reopen in full on August 31. They’re going to test every student twice a week.

“It does trouble me that many colleges out there are doing the absolute minimum, banking on the planets to align and hoping against hope that everything that could go wrong will go right. I don’t think that’s any way to treat our kids, or the staff, the custodians, the dining hall workers, the person who works at the Starbucks on Chapel Street—there’s a much broader community of people who could potentially be harmed if something were to go awry.”









						School of Public Health study says students may be able to safely return to campus
					

As the fall semester nears and universities grapple with what to expect when students return to campus, one study out of the School of Public […]




					yaledailynews.com


----------



## youppi (Aug 19, 2020)

@DannyTS While Sweden didn't officially lock down, many in the country have described a locked-down "feeling" that has eased in the summer months. 

At the start of the outbreak, only high schools and universities closed; daycare and elementary schools have been open. Businesses have also remained open, but typically at reduced hours, and restaurants have functioned at reduced capacity.

Swedes have been asked to keep their distance in public, refrain from non-essential travel, and work from home when possible. Gatherings of more than 50 people are also banned. People age 70 and over are advised to stay away from others as much as possible.

Masks were never required and aren't commonly worn.

This response hasn't changed over time, through the June surge and into today's decline, so there's no definitive explanation for the flattening, though, and experts have several theories.

"Swedes in general have changed their behavior to a great extent during the pandemic and the practice of social distancing as well as physical distancing in public places and at work has been widespread," said Maria Furberg, MD, PhD, an infectious diseases expert at Umea University Hospital in northeastern Sweden.

"During the months of March to early June, all shops were practically empty, people stopped dining with friends, and families stopped seeing even their closest relatives," Furberg told _MedPage Today_. "A lock-down could not have been more effective. Handwashing, excessive use of hand sanitizers, and staying home at the first sign of a cold became the new normal very quickly."

Mozhu Ding, PhD, an epidemiologist at the famed Karolinska Institute, said the decline is "likely to be a combination of measures taken by individuals, businesses and a widespread information campaign launched by the government."

"Even without a strict lockdown order, many businesses allowed employees to work from home, and universities are offering distance courses to the students," Ding told _MedPage Today._ "Individuals are also taking personal hygiene more seriously, as items like hand sanitizers and single-use gloves are often sold out in pharmacies and grocery stores."

Source: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 19, 2020)

youppi said:


> @DannyTS While Sweden didn't officially lock down, many in the country have described a locked-down "feeling" that has eased in the summer months.
> 
> At the start of the outbreak, only high schools and universities closed; daycare and elementary schools have been open. Businesses have also remained open, but typically at reduced hours, and restaurants have functioned at reduced capacity.
> 
> ...


I agree with most of what you said but reading the article cannot explain why all the measures they did *not* take didn't lead to an avalanche of deaths from that moment. The article was written on May 1st , took everything known at that date into account and it predicted a late May peak  of 494 deaths per day. In reality, Sweden had 40 and the number continued to go down until today.


----------



## youppi (Aug 19, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I agree with most of what you said but reading the article cannot explain why all the measures they did *not* take didn't lead to an avalanche of deaths from that moment. The article was written on May 1st , took everything known at that date into account and it predicted a late May peak  of 494 deaths per day. In reality, Sweden had 40 deaths per day on May 30th and the number continued to go down until today.


I said nothing. I just quoted a portion of the article that answer your question why Sweden is not as bad as expected. 
The key is population behavior.
Where do you see May 1st because I see July 29 ?


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Aug 19, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Can you provide a link for that study? It is the first time I hear 90%.











						Rethinking Herd Immunity and the Covid-19 Response End Game | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
					

Additional data, emerging variants, and new understandings of the disease update our earlier thinking about herd immunity for Covid-19.




					www.jhsph.edu


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 19, 2020)

youppi said:


> I said nothing. I just quoted a portion of the article that answer your question why Sweden is not as bad as expected.
> The key is population behavior.
> Where do you see May 1st because I see July 29 ?
> View attachment 25116


Correct but In the article she makes reference to another article she wrote on May 1st








						Are Stockholm's Hospitals About to Break?
					

'The situation is not improving and there are concerns of not enough PPE and health professionals'




					www.medpagetoday.com


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 19, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> Rethinking Herd Immunity and the Covid-19 Response End Game | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
> 
> 
> Additional data, emerging variants, and new understandings of the disease update our earlier thinking about herd immunity for Covid-19.
> ...


This is an old article (April 10)  and made the assumption that the virus was much more contagious than we believe now (especially with some social distancing measures). Articles I read mentioned around 60% or lower, in some cases much lower if immunity is achieved through past exposure to other viruses.


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Aug 20, 2020)

Of course it's an old article, but it deals with herd immunity in general, not specifically about COVID19.  We won't know how herd immunity is gain with regard to this for some time, perhaps years.  But since herd immunity is put forward by some, the article was important in explaining herd immunity.  I found the article below that gives a much more nuanced explanation of Sweden's approach.  Read it and see what you think.









						How Did Sweden Flatten Its Curve Without a Lockdown?
					

One expert credits a 'good-enough strategy'; others worry that it won't last




					www.medpagetoday.com


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 21, 2020)

It sounds like Europe is having a set back. It sounds like everyone is now following Sweden’s strategy because strict lockdowns have not worked.









						With Coronavirus Cases Surging, Europe Braces for New Phase in Pandemic (Published 2020)
					

Despite rules on masks and distancing, fears are growing that the end of the summer travel season will bring a wave of infections.




					www.nytimes.com
				




....._But in recent days France, Germany and Italy have experienced their highest daily case counts since the spring, and Spain finds itself in the midst of a major outbreak. Government authorities and public health officials are warning that the continent is entering a new phase in the pandemic_.....

...._This time, European leaders have largely avoided imposing widespread lockdowns, and are instead relying on measures like targeted restrictions on movement in hot spots, increased mask requirements and public health education campaigns.

Dr. Kluge said that strategy could work.

“Between the basic measures at the national level and additional targeted measures, we are in a much better position to eradicate localized viral outbreaks,” he said. “*We can manage the virus and keep the economy and the education system running*.”......_


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Aug 21, 2020)

Death rate in U.S. is going down:  .0312493639442249.  CDC.gov today:  

TOTAL CASES5,551,79344,864 New Cases*
TOTAL DEATHS173,4901,074 New Deaths*

*Compared to yesterday's data

I like Sweden's model better.  I agree with Danny.  People don't need to be rude and dismissive.  This is what caused a big rift on TUG years ago.  There are more opinions than one or two.  

I wear my mask when in public, but I won't wear one in my car or while out walking or in my yard.  I want to move on from this, but there are reasons people are holding onto this virus like it's killing young people and children.  Look at real data, real science.


----------



## Brett (Aug 21, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> Death rate in U.S. is going down:  .0312493639442249.  CDC.gov today:
> 
> TOTAL CASES5,551,79344,864 New Cases*
> TOTAL DEATHS173,4901,074 New Deaths*
> ...



yes, the Sweden "model"

where citizens love their government leaders  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Swedish citizens love to pay high taxes
Sweden enjoys universal government run health care

A true Socialist Utopia !
(and Swedish citizens don't have to wear masks ... true freedom)


----------



## Monykalyn (Aug 21, 2020)

Brett said:


> A true Socialist Utopia


Yes where people don't have to choose going bankrupt or homeless if they need medical care!
Where if you do need to go into lockdown, you don't have to worry about starvation, loss of your livelihood or homelessness! How friggin awful!!

WHY DO YOU CONTINUE TO TROLL ON THIS??? CAN YOU POSSIBLY-JUST POSSIBLY- BE A GROWNUP AND STOP THE CHILDISH CONSTANT TROLLING?


----------



## Brett (Aug 21, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Yes where people don't have to choose going bankrupt or homeless if they need medical care!
> Where if you do need to go into lockdown, you don't have to worry about starvation, loss of your livelihood or homelessness! How friggin awful!!
> 
> WHY DO YOU CONTINUE TO TROLL ON THIS??? CAN YOU POSSIBLY-JUST POSSIBLY- BE A GROWNUP AND STOP THE CHILDISH CONSTANT TROLLING?




Can *you* not face the "friggin awful" truth about government ?
if you want universal health care and high taxes ..... *vote *


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 21, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> Death rate in U.S. is going down:  .0312493639442249.  CDC.gov today:
> 
> TOTAL CASES5,551,79344,864 New Cases*
> TOTAL DEATHS173,4901,074 New Deaths*
> ...



Why do you think people are holding onto this virus? I am having trouble understanding this.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 21, 2020)

Brett said:


> Can *you* not face the "friggin awful" truth about government ?
> if you want universal health care and high taxes ..... *vote *



I have a problem with voting. My choices are higher taxes and lots of socialist programs or an unethical lying dunce.


----------



## Brett (Aug 21, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I have a problem with voting. My choices are higher taxes and lots of socialist programs or an unethical lying dunce.



.....   yeah, but starting to get


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 21, 2020)

Brett said:


> .....   yeah, but starting to get
> View attachment 25209



No names were mentioned. I am complaining about both options.

Someone was name calling me today and TUG said that was okay. They did not see it as name calling. 

Hijacking threads is now allowed.

I think TUG should be enforcing its rules.


----------



## Brett (Aug 21, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> No names were mentioned. I am complaining about both options.



I understand
but in Sweden (*topic of this thread)* there are reasons people say they love the federal government ..... 
why?
hint:  it's not about the masks !


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 21, 2020)

Brett said:


> I understand
> but in Sweden (*topic of this thread)* there are some reasons people say they love the federal government .....
> why?



I do not know. I am not in favor of a Swedish style government. However, I am interested in what will happen in the end with Sweden's covid strategy.


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## Brett (Aug 21, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I do not know. I am not in favor of a Swedish style government. However, I am interested in what will happen in the end with Sweden's covid strategy.



  the Sweden covid "strategy" may have something to do with government ....   or health care or taxes or ... Darwin ????


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## cman (Aug 21, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> I like Sweden's model better.  I agree with Danny.


I like South Korea's model better. They didn't lock down and only had 6/million deaths. Sweden has 575/million deaths. Not trying to be dismissive, but if I were going to argue against lock downs, Sweden is the last country I'd choose to hold up as an example. The best examples for how to handle a pandemic are in the Asian countries.


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## TravelTime (Aug 21, 2020)

cman said:


> I like South Korea's model better. They didn't lock down and only had 6/million deaths. Sweden has 575/million deaths. Not trying to be dismissive, but if I were going to argue against lock downs, Sweden is the last country I'd choose to hold up as an example. The best examples for how to handle a pandemic are in the Asian countries.



Yes I agree with you.


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## Ken555 (Aug 21, 2020)

I find it rather ironic that so many people over the years refer to other countries, like Sweden, and say that what works there can't work here. We're different. We're special. We're larger. We need a uniquely American solution. 

Now, some people say the opposite. Sweden has freedom, Sweden is open for business, Sweden is doing great...why can't we be more like Sweden? 

I'm not referring to any particular individuals on TUG, I'm referring to others - I'm sure we've all heard this, and sure some of those here may fall into this category, but I don't know that for certain. 

Brett has a point. Sweden has a good healthcare system and social support so that everyone receives healthcare (and more) without risking going bankrupt. We don't have that. I have little doubt that this impacts their approach to C19. 

And, as has been posted previously, Sweden has an integral sense of community which far exceeds our own. I don't see us replicating them anytime soon.


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## Ken555 (Aug 21, 2020)

cman said:


> I like South Korea's model better. They didn't lock down and only had 6/million deaths. Sweden has 575/million deaths. Not trying to be dismissive, but if I were going to argue against lock downs, Sweden is the last country I'd choose to hold up as an example. The best examples for how to handle a pandemic are in the Asian countries.



Yes! Let us also not forget Mongolia (zero deaths and only 298 total cases compared to the USA's 5,794,238).


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## Brett (Aug 21, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yes! Let us also not forget Mongolia (zero deaths and only 298 total cases compared to the USA's 5,794,238).



And let us not forget New Zealand

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-church-sarang-jeil.html


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## Ken555 (Aug 21, 2020)

Brett said:


> And let us not forget New Zealand
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-church-sarang-jeil.html



Yes! There are many countries which have done quite well. In fact, most of them have. We did the worst. 

<sarcasm>Gosh, I wonder why that is.</sarcasm>


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## TravelTime (Aug 21, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yes! There are many countries which have done quite well. In fact, most of them have. We did the worst.
> 
> <sarcasm>Gosh, I wonder why that is.</sarcasm>
> 
> ...



<sarcasm>I can think of a reason.<sarcasm>


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## davidvel (Aug 21, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I find it rather ironic that so many people over the years refer to other countries, like Sweden, and say that what works there can't work here. We're different. We're special. We're larger. We need a uniquely American solution.
> 
> Now, some people say the opposite. Sweden has freedom, Sweden is open for business, Sweden is doing great...why can't we be more like Sweden?
> 
> ...


Most people (74% of U.S. deaths) who died of COVID (65+) had free government insurance. Of the remainder,(26%), 90% of them are insured. Insurance covers COVID treatment 100%.  

On average, less than 3% of those that died did not have insurance. Of those uninsured, COVID care is to be paid by the CARES act. 

I don't track how availability of insurance did or should have had any effect on U.S. policy toward COVID.


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## Ken555 (Aug 21, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Most people (74% of U.S. deaths) who died of COVID (65+) had free government insurance. Of the remainder,(26%), 90% of them are insured. Insurance covers COVID treatment 100%.
> 
> On average, less than 3% of those that died did not have insurance. Of those uninsured, COVID care is to be paid by the CARES act.
> 
> I don't track how availability of insurance did or should have had any effect on U.S. policy toward COVID.



You missed the point. 

The question is whether or not a social safety net contributes to the actions of the citizenry during a pandemic. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## MOXJO7282 (Aug 21, 2020)

cman said:


> I like South Korea's model better. They didn't lock down and only had 6/million deaths. Sweden has 575/million deaths. Not trying to be dismissive, but if I were going to argue against lock downs, Sweden is the last country I'd choose to hold up as an example. The best examples for how to handle a pandemic are in the Asian countries.


Because Asians care about and respect society and their elders far more than Americans, whereas Americans are about individualism, where most will still respect society, but some equate that to screw everyone else its all about me.


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## MommaBear (Aug 21, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I like this site-can play around with it and see lots of data
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The way CFR is determined in this study is too simplistic. It's actually calculated by the number of cases, deaths and recovery over a period of time, as time from contracting Covid to time of either recovery or death varies significantly. 
Here's an article describing the formula to determine CFR. https://science.thewire.in/the-sciences/covid-19-pandemic-case-fatality-rate-calculation/


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## DeniseM (Aug 21, 2020)

CLOSED: I am tired of you obsessed people and the constant inappropriate posts and resulting post reporting.  Have a good weekend - get a life.


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