# Will this Covid spread continue to level down?



## billymach4 (May 22, 2020)

With more localities opening up, more people starting to get back to work, travel, beaches, religious gatherings. Yes these are all good things and activities that will support the economy and make us feel normal.

Unfortunately in my opinion the virus is continuing to spread in the US and will start to ramp up again.
We are starting to see the spread increase in certain locations again.

Just saying.


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## DeniseM (May 23, 2020)

Folks - This thread could go either way, please take the high road.


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## billymach4 (May 23, 2020)

Forgive me but I had to look it up.









						Take the high road
					

To take the high road is an American phrase which means to approach an endeavor or problem in a fashion that is above pettiness, to travel the moral high ground, to behave decently. The phrase




					grammarist.com
				




*Take the high road*




To *take the high road* is an American phrase which means to approach an endeavor or problem in a fashion that is above pettiness, to travel the moral high ground, to behave decently. The phrase to _take the high road _came into popular use during the American presidential campaign of 1948, Thomas Dewey claiming to _take the high road _against Truman’s campaign tactics.

take the high road
When you 'take the high road' - it means doing the right thing even if its not popular or easy.


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## b2bailey (May 23, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Forgive me but I had to look it up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Above pettiness -- perfecto.


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## pedro47 (May 23, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> Above pettiness -- perfecto.


LOL


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## Brett (May 23, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Forgive me but I had to look it up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



OK, the "high road"
pondering "doing the right thing even if it's not popular"  ............


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## geekette (May 23, 2020)

It seems inevitable that the infection will spread.   I will keep a good thought that new cases are super mild and that hospitalized persons benefit from gained treatment knowledge.   I can handle massive case detections much easier than a skyrocketing death toll.  So far we haven't hit Surgeon General's warning of 3k deaths per day.  I'd like to keep it that way.


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## Conan (May 23, 2020)

I'm sticking with "I don't know" what's in our future.

They say (absent an effective vaccine), there can't be herd immunity until at least 70% of the population has been exposed.

But it seems that the countries that did respond effectively against the initial infection (Germany, South Korea, New Zealand, Japan, Canada, Australia) are well on the way to eliminating new cases without ever getting near the 70% target. If their test and trace programs were so effective that the virus is nearly extinct locally, what will happen to their case rate when they reopen their borders?


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## Passepartout (May 23, 2020)

What had become abundantly clear now is that each of our 'personal safety' is now each of our PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. Nobody is going to make the blanket requirement that everybody stay home, everybody mask up, everybody stay away from each other. So for those of us in the highest risk group, there is little protection except what we provide ourselves. The rest can 'carry on' like there is no threat. Some will get sick, most will get well, the weak and susceptible will die. Natural selection. 

Thanks! Enjoy your church services, your restaurants, your beaches, your theme parks, and ball fields. I'm staying home until the 'ALL CLEAR- THERE'S A VACCINE OR TREATMENT! is sounded.

Jim


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## bbodb1 (May 23, 2020)

As businesses and activities reopen, there will be an increase in cases.  That is not debatable but the amount of the increase will matter greatly and that will vary geographically.

What will be interesting to observe is will an area be willing to revert to a more locked down level after trying to reopen and what will the reaction be from the citizens of that area? 

And how will the economy trend as we try to reopen  - and how will jobs be different as we learn to live with COVID 19.

In the meantime, our approach looks a lot like Jim's as we have not ventured out at all in over 2 months.  I have done all the shopping and have managed to shop at times with less crowds throughout this.  That behavior will likely continue for some time.


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## geekette (May 23, 2020)

....If their test and trace programs were so effective that the virus is nearly extinct locally, what will happen to their case rate when they reopen their borders? 

Very good question.  My memory isn't so good, but I think it was S Korea that was able to find and isolate "imported cases".   Maybe it wasn't them, but there had been a report of "we found 14 cases, they arrived from elsewhere" and quarantined them and went back to dormant case count.  Could have been Wuhan, I just don't remember, except that they did find and isolate.  Time passes strangely, I think that was weeks ago, but could have been days...

Perhaps, like other aspects of this pandemic, some countries will be better at others in this "find and confine" issue.  We have so many international airports that it's hard to imagine an expansion of TSA, or similar, to manage it for the US.  Perhaps the bigger problem will be qt of infected, or, presumed infected.  To me, that seems like an enormous effort.   Are we going to see certain "airport hotels" turn into Isolate Inns?  Hard to imagine any hotel wants to be that, even if all their staff is "presumed immune".  Will people actually do much travel if it involves 14 days of isolation?  I don't think I could do that.  

Here in Indiana, I think our cases rooted via interstate travel (many trucking companies here along with major interstates converging), but could have been intl flights.  Ours or from Chic O'Hare.   

Regardless, yeah, I have many more questions that I will simply have to be patient on knowing answers to, and am making peace with the fact that for some things, I will never get to know the answer.  I hope we continue to come up with Ideas that become Solutions.


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## Panina (May 23, 2020)

Logically to me yes they will go up.  
The question is by how much and when.  

We might get relief by the warmer weather keeping numbers down which can cause those practicing guidelines to get a false sense of security to stop thus if the resurgence occurs in the Fall it could be worse. 

The SIP was to flatten the curve, done, to have enough medical resources for those who need it.  It didn’t magically make the virus go away.

Hopefully,  with part of the population following suggested guidelines and others still staying home, the increase in numbers will still be able to be handled by the medical community.


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## x3 skier (May 23, 2020)

It clear the more you test, the more cases you find, even if some of the positives never experienced any symptoms. I myself got virus nose swab tested a couple of weeks ago with negative results. One statistic I have never seen (haven't really looked for either) is the situation of asymptomatic persons who then test positive for the virus or have the antibodies showing they had the virus.  

Another statistic I've not seen is the rate of Hospitalization of those tested positive by age grouping.

I'm sure these statistics are out there somewhere but I haven't really searched since its not really going to affect my behavior. Frankly, if I'm going to spend the rest of the years I have in my house or risk the potential of catching the virus, I'm going out with the recommended precautions.

Cheers


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## T-Dot-Traveller (May 23, 2020)

I will start with Canada - realizing that is also a large country (with provincially run health care .)

For the future good of society - “shut down “ was implemented to prevent the overwhelming of hospitals (as was occurring in Italy and then NYC ) Capacity was added to hospitals by cancelling all elective surgeries-  this would include things like very needed knee replacements etc. etc.

Some things (that in hindsight) should have been done in Canada at once , were missed .
Prioritizing PPE to Nursing homes and meat processing plants .
1)approx. 80% ofCanadian  deaths from Covid 19 are connected to Long Term Care / Nursing Home / Assisted Living Facilities .
2) meat processing has had significant infection hot spots .

I think the big picture answers will come from more testing and more contact tracing .

A couple of prior  examples of eventual “ containment resolution “ without a vaccine are :
1 ) AIDS
2 )Lyme Disease ( ticks bite transmissions )

***********

There will always be the need have rules to protect society
and the need for individual freedom to make choices .

A Timeshare ownership and the HOA works similarly .

Protect yourself & protect others - be responsible


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## bbodb1 (May 23, 2020)

But to be fair, @T-Dot-Traveller , wouldn't you agree the two prior example containment resolution diseases you mention are almost exclusively avoidable whereas COVID 19 is not?


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## bluehende (May 23, 2020)

Panina said:


> Logically to me yes they will go up.
> The question is by how much and when.
> 
> We might get relief by the warmer weather keeping numbers down which can cause those practicing guidelines to get a false sense of security to stop thus if the resurgence occurs in the Fall it could be worse.
> ...




This is where I am.  With some of the population still SAH and with a lot of people social distancing while out it will help keep the spread down.  Also seasonal effects should help some too.  My guess is we will see steady to a slow rise in cases.  Nothing to react too except for a few local bad outbreaks.  My worry is this gives us a false sense of security and in the fall we have a big problem that resistance to mitigating moves makes much worse.


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## bbodb1 (May 23, 2020)

Stories like this one are likely to be more frequent in the coming days and weeks:









						Hair stylist worked while symptomatic, exposed clients to virus
					

Health officials were tracking down 91 people who were potentially exposed to determine if they've developed COVID-19.




					www.nbcnews.com


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## normab (May 23, 2020)

I think it depends where you live.  The US is so large that many of our states are Larger than some countries.   So clearly some states may have more of an uptick than others.  

Since no one on this earth can really predict the future, it’s anyone’s educated guess.    My educated guess is that it will not come back with a vengeance. I believe we are heading toward our own version of herd immunity.   

 But that an a buck will get you anything you want at Dollar Tree.


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## PigsDad (May 23, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> It clear the more you test, the more cases you find, even if some of the positives never experienced any symptoms.


Absolutely.  The number of positive cases is correlated to the number of total tests, so just looking at the total number of positive test results is not a great measure, IMO.



> Another statistic I've not seen is the rate of Hospitalization of those tested positive by age grouping.



I much prefer hospitalization rate as an indicator of how we are or are not doing against CV-19.  Hospitalization rate is a good indicator of serious cases, and is not dependent on the testing rate or total number of tests being administered.

Here's the good news:  *Hospitalization rates have been declining for several weeks now. * Here is a graph, straight from the CDC, which demonstrates this (and I think is exactly what you are looking for, @x3 skier):





Source:  https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html
You can make some adjustments to view / filter the data on several age bands.  On that page, there is a link to another CDC page where you can break down the hospitalization rates by race and underlying medical conditions as well.

Looking at this data I don't see any spikes yet, even though several states have relaxed their SIP orders for a couple of weeks.  It may be too soon, but hopefully the downward trend continues.

Kurt


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## b2bailey (May 23, 2020)

geekette said:


> It seems inevitable that the infection will spread.   I will keep a good thought that new cases are super mild and that hospitalized persons benefit from gained treatment knowledge.   I can handle massive case detections much easier than a skyrocketing death toll.  So far we haven't hit Surgeon General's warning of 3k deaths per day.  I'd like to keep it that way.


" Benefit from gained treatment knowledge. "
This is definitely a reason to be hopeful.


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## b2bailey (May 23, 2020)

Panina said:


> Logically to me yes they will go up.
> The question is by how much and when.
> 
> We might get relief by the warmer weather keeping numbers down which can cause those practicing guidelines to get a false sense of security to stop thus if the resurgence occurs in the Fall it could be worse.
> ...


I'm confused by any mention of warm weather being helpful to combat virus. If true, how to explain Brazil?


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## b2bailey (May 23, 2020)

T-Dot-Traveller said:


> I will start with Canada - realizing that is also a large country (with provincially run health care .)
> 
> For the future good of society - “shut down “ was implemented to prevent the overwhelming of hospitals (as was occurring in Italy and then NYC ) Capacity was added to hospitals by cancelling all elective surgeries-  this would include things like very needed knee replacements etc. etc.
> 
> ...


Wow -- 80% in Canada? I hadn't seen that figure.


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## geekette (May 23, 2020)

b2bailey said:


> " Benefit from gained treatment knowledge. "
> This is definitely a reason to be hopeful.


The one thing I know I would do is ask to be flipped onto my stomach before resorting to intubation.  I think Italy discovered that (not sure, but since I followed Italy fairly closely, I guess them; also where I saw the phenomenal bubble-headed alternative to unconscious intubation - let's try bubbles here! )


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## beejaybeeohio (May 23, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> I much prefer hospitalization rate as an indicator of how we are or are not doing against CV-19.  Hospitalization rate is a good indicator of serious cases, and is not dependent on the testing rate or total number of tests being administered.
> 
> Here's the good news:  *Hospitalization rates have been declining for several weeks now. *
> Kurt



I agree with your preference. In addition, I would like information delineated by nursing home cases/deaths, prison cases/deaths and meat packing plants cases/deaths.


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## Monykalyn (May 23, 2020)

Agr


beejaybeeohio said:


> I agree with your preference. In addition, I would like information delineated by nursing home cases/deaths, prison cases/deaths and meat packing plants cases/deaths.


agree-especially as risk of infection/severity clearly goes up with prolonged close contact. I’ll bet now that casual brief contacts have low transmission risk. I’d also like to know how often “mild” or “asymptomatic” spread results in a severe case requiring hospitalization.


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## Cornell (May 23, 2020)

A cool visual made in Tableau


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## Brett (May 23, 2020)

Cornell said:


> A cool visual made in Tableau




I'm thinking the "*cool*" visual is a little misleading,  *population density* is different - just like voting ! 

statistical maps can  li   .. mislead  .... ....  - wow   - most of the country doesn't have a coronavrius problem !!


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## Cornell (May 23, 2020)

@Brett I don't think it's misleading at all -- *that's that whole point of the map*.


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## Brett (May 23, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @Brett I don't think it's misleading at all -- *that's that whole point of the map*.




riiigghhhtt
the virus is not a problem in *almost all* of the country ... 
(according to your map)

but I suppose one could say ... what is the purpose of your map  (from a *statistics* perspective)


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## Conan (May 23, 2020)

The map demonstrates deaths per acre. 
Similar to those maps that show how many acres voted for candidate A versus candidate B.


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## geekette (May 23, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I’d also like to know how often “mild” or “asymptomatic” spread results in a severe case requiring hospitalization.


Yes.   Wondering same thing as regards "second pass".   

I am hoping to find out that if a person can be re-infected, that it is always a milder case than whatever they had originally.  My fingers will have to be crossed for a really long time and hoping it isn't the other way around, second time  you get it being worse.


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## Brett (May 23, 2020)

Conan said:


> The map demonstrates deaths per acre.
> Similar to those maps that show how many acres voted for candidate A versus candidate B.




correct 
 land acres don't vote and deaths per acre for a virus may not be a relevant statistic


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## geekette (May 23, 2020)

Brett said:


> correct
> land acres don't vote and deaths per acre for a virus may not be a relevant statistic


I am at 0 deaths for this 1.5 acres.  My neighbor next door is also at 0 deaths for his 1.5 ac.  Nobody is living on the other side of me, so another 0 for 1.5 ac.  and so on for our neighborhood so far.


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## b2bailey (May 23, 2020)

geekette said:


> I am at 0 deaths for this 1.5 acres.  My neighbor next door is also at 0 deaths for his 1.5 ac.  Nobody is living on the other side of me, so another 0 for 1.5 ac.  and so on for our neighborhood so far.


And that's a good thing, no matter what color it is.


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## Conan (May 24, 2020)

100,000 deaths in 2,000,000,000 acres. 
Only 1 death in 20,000 acres. 
USA!!  USA!!


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## pedro47 (May 24, 2020)

May I ask this  one question?   What is going to happen on New Year's  Eve around the world on January 1, 2021? 

What will Time Square in New York City look liked, or London, or Paris, or Moscow,  or Tokyo,  South Africa, or Brazil.  COVID-19 you have created one huge problem on earth. IMHO.


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## b2bailey (May 24, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> May I ask this  one question?   What is going to happen on New Year's  Eve around the world on January 1, 2021?
> 
> What will Time Square in New York City look liked, or London, or Paris, or Moscow,  or Tokyo,  South Africa, or Brazil.  COVID-19 you have created one huge problem on earth. IMHO.


Gosh, I certainly haven't been thinking that far in the future. And I would never have been a part of such large gatherings. But a good point of how we will be affected in the future. I was planning a trip to New York, and won't go if there are no Broadway shows to be seen.


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## Conan (May 24, 2020)

Apropos of Broadway shows (not to mention normal day-to-day activities), ask yourself when you will feel safe enough to use a public toilet.








						Fear Of Public Restrooms Prompts Creative Solutions As Some Businesses Reopen
					

Some people are afraid to use potentially germ-filled public restrooms as stay-at-home restrictions begin lifting. That's boosting sales of products that offer creative alternatives.




					www.npr.org


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## bbodb1 (May 24, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> May I ask this  one question?   What is going to happen on New Year's  Eve around the world on January 1, 2021?
> 
> What will Time Square in New York City look liked, or London, or Paris, or Moscow,  or Tokyo,  South Africa, or Brazil.  COVID-19 you have created one huge problem on earth. IMHO.



Two thoughts emerge: 

What _*will*_ those cities look like on 1/1/21?

- and -  

What _*should *_those cities look like on 1/1/21?


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## bbodb1 (May 24, 2020)

Conan said:


> Apropos of Broadway shows (not to mention normal day-to-day activities), ask yourself when you will feel safe enough to use a public toilet.


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## Talent312 (May 24, 2020)

It's the thinning of the herd...
A certain level of loss is acceptable to the pack.
The trick is not to be one caught by the wolves.
If you are, it matters not which acreage you occupy.
.


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## davidvel (May 24, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> It's the thinning of the herd...
> A certain level of loss is acceptable to the pack.
> The trick is not to be one caught by the wolves.
> If you are, it matters not which acreage you occupy.
> .


But it does matter to most. In Wyoming there is one wolf, in NY there are 10 million.


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## davidvel (May 24, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @Brett I don't think it's misleading at all -- *that's that whole point of the map*.


Exactly. Most of the country doesn't have a coronavirus problem, unless you consider a few hundred deaths from a virus a problem. (Which we've never panicked about before.)


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## jme (May 24, 2020)

Dr. Birx: 'Critically important' that people wear masks as states reopen amid higher than expected death tolls
					

White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx warned that even though states are beginning to reopen, with some beaches being made available to the public over Memorial Day weekend, that people must still maintain social distancing precautions and wear masks where appropriate.




					www.foxnews.com


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## davidvel (May 24, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> But to be fair, @T-Dot-Traveller , wouldn't you agree the two prior example containment resolution diseases you mention are almost exclusively avoidable whereas COVID 19 is not?


Avoidable? No more avoidable than COVID19, probably less so.


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## billymach4 (May 24, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Two thoughts emerge:
> 
> What _*will*_ those cities look like on 1/1/21?
> 
> ...




I can make an accurate prediction. There will not be any crowds in Times Square on 12/31/2020.


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## PamMo (May 24, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Stories like this one are likely to be more frequent in the coming days and weeks:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Another stylist at the salon has tested positive so far. I suspect more will follow.   Our county health commissioner looks absolutely miserable in his news conferences.


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## Monykalyn (May 24, 2020)

So far, no other positive case connected to the stylist has been confirmed, but the county is nonetheless facing "a glut of cases," Goddard said. 
Update: Just the one other stylist so far --so how is he saying "a glut of cases" and they were both masked (supposedly)-and if masking is the end-all be-all of stopping this virus shouldn't everyone else be negative? kidding!
I do see how if SEVERE cases ramp up then systems are overwhelmed but the vast majority aren't severe, we have an EMPTY entire floor devoted to the "surge" of severe CV19 cases (still waiting) at just one of the local hospitals (we have 2). We have adequate PPE for the hospitals (Nursing homes are rationing but that's another story).

Also MO was one that was lumping antibody testing and active infection testing together (per CDC rules in reporting) and have recently stopped, and have also recently stopped counting multiple tests for same person (like a paramedic that gets tested several times)-although I truly don't know why that matters-so he's tested 4 times and negative 4 times? A third change Saturday in the state’s reporting showed confirmed COVID-19 cases in Missouri starting on Feb. 2 — more than a month earlier than the virus was previously reported to have hit the state.  
--So if/when? numbers change drastically can't be sure what the reason is. --this is my town FWIW 

The working while sick...yeah shouldn't happen. But if you've got bills and it takes a day or two to get results back-not excusing but I bet we see this alot...


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## Conan (May 24, 2020)

davidvel said:


> In Wyoming there is one wolf, in NY there are 10 million.



I just now wasted half an hour trying to find similar sentiments expressed after 9/11. Something about how more Americans die from traffic accidents every month, or why worry about terrorism if you're not in New York or D.C., or if there are no tall buildings in your town.

The nearest I got was Coulter calling 9/11 widows "witches." I was sure I'd find something nasty from Louis Farrakhan, but "Nation of Islam Responds to Attacks on America*" *was disappointingly sympathetic. 

Maybe something from Timeshare Users Group in 2001? Probably not....


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## Panina (May 24, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Update: Just the one other stylist so far --so how is he saying "a glut of cases" and they were both masked (supposedly)-and if masking is the end-all be-all of stopping this virus shouldn't everyone else be negative? kidding!
> I


All kidding aside I would bet my money that the masks were not always worn Or not worn properly.   I could see them being taken off when mixing dyes in a separate area, bathrooms, breakrooms, and elsewhere just to get a breathe of air.

I recently went to the bank for an appointment where all employees were supposed to wear masks.  It was their policy that they were telling customers.  One pulled it off right in front of me.  I saw another not cover his nose.  Why bother?


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## Brett (May 24, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Exactly. Most of the country doesn't have a coronavirus problem, unless you consider a few hundred deaths from a virus a problem. (Which we've never panicked about before.)



well shoot, then what's all the fuss ...
maybe this coronavirus pandemic thing is a bad dream or a hoax perpetrated on unpanicked Americans
ya think?     ,


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## Brett (May 24, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> I can make an accurate prediction. There will not be any crowds in Times Square on 12/31/2020.



I would not bet against you


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## davidvel (May 24, 2020)

Brett said:


> well shoot, then what's all the fuss ...
> maybe this coronavirus pandemic thing is a bad dream or a hoax perpetrated on unpanicked Americans
> ya think?     ,


No, that's silly.  

When more than half the deaths are in only 3 states, and half the states have less than 500 deaths, yes, most of the country has fared very well against this contagion. Hopefully we have learned from mistakes in those densely packed states and institutions, and the numbers can remain relatively low for most of the country .


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## Conan (May 24, 2020)

I also hope the numbers can remain relatively low in the rest of the country, but early reports aren’t great.


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/24/coronavirus-rural-america-outbreaks/


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## Brett (May 24, 2020)

davidvel said:


> No, that's silly.
> 
> When more than half the deaths are in only 3 states, and half the states have less than 500 deaths, yes, most of the country has fared very well against this contagion. Hopefully we have learned from mistakes in those densely packed states and institutions, and the numbers can remain relatively low for most of the country .



yes, most of the coronavirus deaths are in populated states and most people infected survived, indeed most of us "fared very well" during the pandemic ..................... so to speak


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## Monykalyn (May 24, 2020)

Panina said:


> All kidding aside I would bet my money that the masks were not always worn Or not worn properly. I could see them being taken off when mixing dyes in a separate area, bathrooms, breakrooms, and elsewhere just to get a breathe of air.


I'd bet you are correct. And therein lies the problem with the masking situation: there wasn't a cohesive comprehensive information program on what type (if homemade), how to wear, why, how to take on/off , why fit is important etc..  No wonder people are confused with varying compliance.


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## Rolltydr (May 24, 2020)

Brett said:


> yes, most of the coronavirus deaths are in populated states and most people infected survived, indeed most of us "fared very well" during the pandemic ..................... so to speak
> 
> View attachment 21290


A map, with context. So, more people get Covid19, and die from it, in cities where the most people live? And, somehow, this shows it’s not really a serious problem? Smdh!


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## Monykalyn (May 24, 2020)

Conan said:


> I also hope the numbers can remain relatively low in the rest of the country, but early reports aren’t great.
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/24/coronavirus-rural-america-outbreaks/


paywall
looking up the rural counties in random sampling with both hard hit urban and mostly rural...well the trackers I've looked at don't show overwhelming. Of course you go from one case to 2 and it's a 100% increase  In a county of 2700 people this is not an overwhelming amount.


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## TravelTime (May 24, 2020)

This story is making big news









						Pool party at Lake of the Ozarks in Missouri shows people crowding closely together
					

Video posted by a reporter shows partiers crowded together in a pool at the Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri, this Memorial Day weekend.




					www.cnn.com


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## fillde (May 24, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This story is making big news
> 
> 
> 
> ...




San Francisco.
https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/memorial-day-weekend-draws-big-crowds-to-san-francisco-parks/


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## Cornell (May 24, 2020)

Man Not Sure He Can Take Another 6 Weeks Of Barely Following CDC Guidelines
					

ST. LOUIS—Following more than a month of halfhearted adherence to guidelines put in place to combat Covid-19, local man Luke Bradley confirmed Friday that he was unsure if he could take another six weeks of barely adopting practices recommended by the Centers for Disease Control. “I honestly...




					local.theonion.com
				




(And yes, this is satire)


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## PigsDad (May 24, 2020)

fillde said:


> San Francisco.
> https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/memorial-day-weekend-draws-big-crowds-to-san-francisco-parks/
> View attachment 21293


I don't know -- that picture doesn't look that bad to me.  First off, it's outside so that is a lower risk.  Second, it looks like most groups are staying 6+ feet apart from other groups.  And third, all the individual groups are small, most less than 5 people each.

The pictures of the pool party mentioned above are much, much worse.

Kurt


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## billymach4 (May 24, 2020)

The pool bar is just plain ignorance.


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## T-Dot-Traveller (May 25, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> May I ask this  one question?   What is going to happen on New Year's  Eve around the world on January 1, 2021?
> 
> What will Time Square in New York City look liked, or London, or Paris, or Moscow,  or Tokyo,  South Africa, or Brazil.  COVID-19 you have created one huge problem on earth. IMHO.


We are likely going to do what we did last year . Watch TV & fall asleep,


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## spirits (May 25, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I'd bet you are correct. And therein lies the problem with the masking situation: there wasn't a cohesive comprehensive information program on what type (if homemade), how to wear, why, how to take on/off , why fit is important etc..  No wonder people are confused with varying compliance.


I just read an article where they are saying that the test of masks was only started in 2003 after the SAR's outbreak....and the result of the testing was only completed last year.  This is all new and as the virus moves across the world, the science is playing catchup.  Please err on the side of caution.


----------



## fillde (May 25, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> I don't know -- that picture doesn't look that bad to me.
> Kurt


Personally, I like to to keep a 5-6 distance to prevent exposure to potentially an asymptomatic person. I’m not being judge-mental. Just cautious.


----------



## Brett (May 25, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This story is making big news
> 
> 
> 
> ...






fillde said:


> Personally, I like to to keep a 5-6 distance to prevent exposure to potentially an asymptomatic person. I’m not being judge-mental. Just cautious.



sounds reasonable

unlike these beach goers yesterday


----------



## beejaybeeohio (May 25, 2020)

Back to the MO hairdressers....
Contact tracing will be so helpful in understanding better the transmission of C-19. Reportedly in the first case both stylist and clients wore masks. That stylist was symptomatic throughout her working days. It will be enlightening to learn how many customers contracted C-19 and whether they were asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, required hospitalization, required ventilators. Wouldn't it be great if no patron contracted the virus? 

And re: the partiers....
Here in Ohio I've driven by some restaurants and been able to see how busy the patios are. IMHO just a glance shows me that social distancing is moot.


----------



## Panina (May 25, 2020)

beejaybeeohio said:


> Back to the MO hairdressers....
> Contact tracing will be so helpful in understanding better the transmission of C-19. Reportedly in the first case both stylist and clients wore masks. That stylist was symptomatic throughout her working days. It will be enlightening to learn how many customers contracted C-19 and whether they were asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, required hospitalization, required ventilators. Wouldn't it be great if no patron contracted the virus?
> 
> And re: the partiers....
> Here in Ohio I've driven by some restaurants and been able to see how busy the patios are. IMHO just a glance shows me that social distancing is moot.



Customer that went to this salon said this in this article
“ Chase visited the Great Clips in Springfield on May 17, where he saw all customers were wearing masks, but some stylists who were not. He added that the stylist who cut his hair was not wearing gloves. Health officials previously stated that both stylists, as well as all their clients, wore masks”









						Customer speaks out on possible coronavirus exposure at Missouri hair salon
					

A customer who was potentially exposed to the coronavirus at a Great Clips in Missouri is speaking out after two hairstylists at the barbershop reportedly worked with COVID-19 symptoms before testing positive for the virus.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Monykalyn (May 25, 2020)

Panina said:


> Customer that went to this salon said this in this article
> “ Chase visited the Great Clips in Springfield on May 17, where he saw all customers were wearing masks, but some stylists who were not. He added that the stylist who cut his hair was not wearing gloves. Health officials previously stated that both stylists, as well as all their clients, wore masks”
> 
> 
> ...





beejaybeeohio said:


> Back to the MO hairdressers....
> Contact tracing will be so helpful in understanding better the transmission of C-19. Reportedly in the first case both stylist and clients wore masks. That stylist was symptomatic throughout her working days. It will be enlightening to learn how many customers contracted C-19 and whether they were asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, required hospitalization, required ventilators. Wouldn't it be great if no patron contracted the virus?
> 
> And re: the partiers....
> Here in Ohio I've driven by some restaurants and been able to see how busy the patios are. IMHO just a glance shows me that social distancing is moot.


And the stories are so inconsistent-one positively states "worked while positive" like they knew, one states one stylist worked with symptoms then another article both worked with symptoms, not a single actual identifiable fact: Did they have symptoms and when, who did they talk to about symptoms, WHAT were there symptoms (I live here and allergies have been BAD this spring!!). WHEN did the positive test come back and where they told to NOT work while tests pending? Was the 2nd stylist tested because of "symptoms" or because exposure and then found positive? I didn't get a test when I had the symptoms but NO fever in Urgent care a week ago (plus I had the congestion from allergies). Seriously I am sick of media making stuff up as they go without facts and letting the pitchforks come out. And the glove thing- whatevs.
And that stupid bar-those swim up bars are just GROSS anyway bleh.  I am surprised they didn't limit capacity at all; they are huge money makers and too many of the fun resorts around there have installed them now-so instead of a nice lake view while listening to a reggae band while watching the sunset you get drunk parties. We quit going to so many of our favorites for this reason.


----------



## Cornell (May 25, 2020)

@Monykalyn Could not agree w/you more about media making things up as they go .  About 6 weeks ago, a teenager died in our school district.  Terrible.  The parents told the district he died from C19.  Then the school district sent an email out to all families which this was mentioned.  Panic ensued , further scaring parents into the idea that school is not safe and that children are vulnerable.  Later on , the family informed that the student died from other causes.


----------



## DeniseM (May 25, 2020)

Cornell - Your post above has nothing to do with the "media making  things up," or the  topic of this thread.  Your post says that the family made a mistake and that the school district fulfilled their mandatory obligation to inform parents that there was a serious illness in the school.

Please stop interjecting your socially contentious opinions into every thread possible.


> TUG POSTING RULES: Avoid posting about politics, religion, or *contentious social issues*. Unless directly related to timesharing, such discussions are prohibited in these forums, including TUG Lounge. We've been down that road before, it was ugly, and we are not going there again.


----------



## DeniseM (May 25, 2020)

Everyone:  Some of you have found the high road to be too high - try harder.


> Post #2 in this thread: Folks - This thread could go either way, please take the high road.


----------



## billymach4 (May 25, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Forgive me but I had to look it up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Just a reminder as Denise is trying to maintain some decorum here. I appreciate the courteous content.


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (May 25, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> With more localities opening up, more people starting to get back to work, travel, beaches, religious gatherings. Yes these are all good things and activities that will support the economy and make us feel normal.
> 
> Unfortunately in my opinion the virus is continuing to spread in the US and will start to ramp up again.
> We are starting to see the spread increase in certain locations again.
> ...


Hi billymach4

As I understand it - a reduction in overall transmission rate requires that in macro numbers - for each 100 people infected fewer than 100 get the virus from the first group .

Whereas if 100 infected people become 200 become 400 / become 800 - pretty soon you have a really big problem . 

So “levelling down” requires  preventing enough transmission that the number falls in each subsequent transmission cycle .

preventing transmission of a virus that spreads from asymptomatic carriers requires more than good luck .


----------



## Panina (May 27, 2020)

This line is the article “ Experts estimate that 25% to 75% of coronavirus infections may be asymptomatic” surprised me.  The lower end I have heard before, the higher end not.









						Health experts warn “silent spreaders” a bigger risk as U.S. reopens — Los Angeles Times
					

There’s increasing concern that people infected with COVID-19 who show no signs of illness are playing a large role in the transmission of COVID-19.




					apple.news


----------



## Bunk (May 27, 2020)

> https://nypost.com/2020/05/25/viral-video-shows-nyc-store-mob-screaming-at-woman-without-mask/


Here's hoping it levels down quickly.  When I first saw this video, I thought it was part of a science fiction movie.  When I looked again, thanks to my TUG education, my next thoughts were that it is not healthy to yell because that could actually spread the virus, and it is not healthy to ignore social distancing in order to yell at someone. When I looked again, I noticed the irony  that the guy on the left of the screen with his baseball cap backwards had his mask down but still seemed to be yelling at the lady both before and after he raised the mask to cover his mouth.


----------



## PigsDad (May 27, 2020)

Panina said:


> This line is the article “ Experts estimate that 25% to 75% of coronavirus infections may be asymptomatic” surprised me.  The lower end I have heard before, the higher end not.


Interesting.  I had the exact opposite reaction.  I had heard several references of up to 80% asymptomatic, and was surprised by the 25% number.

Kurt


----------



## davidvel (May 27, 2020)

Panina said:


> This line is the article “ Experts estimate that 25% to 75% of coronavirus infections may be asymptomatic” surprised me.  The lower end I have heard before, the higher end not.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I just heard on news radio about the new study that found the 80% number.


----------



## Panina (May 27, 2020)

davidvel said:


> I just heard on news radio about the new study that found the 80% number.


Did they say where? Or how they came to 80%?


----------



## davidvel (May 27, 2020)

Panina said:


> Did they say where? Or how they came to 80%?


Apparently a cruise to Antarctica.
_All of the 217 people who remained on board were tested for COVID-19. More than half (59 percent) tested positive, but just 19 percent of those patients had symptoms. The other 81 percent were symptom-free. _

NBC Story


----------



## Panina (May 27, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Apparently a cruise to Antarctica.
> _All of the 217 people who remained on board were tested for COVID-19. More than half (59 percent) tested positive, but just 19 percent of those patients had symptoms. The other 81 percent were symptom-free. _
> 
> NBC Story


Wow, that now confirms theories of why it spreads so easily, high % asymptomatic.  I am also reading more and more about the masks reducing the spread with asymptomatic people too but numbers vary from 50% to 80%.  No article says how they came up with those numbers.  Seems more knowledge is emerging which is good.  Just read also Virginia made it mandatory to wear masks indoors due to rising numbers.


----------



## Sandy VDH (May 27, 2020)

Yes, that is why testing everyone, whether symptomatic or symptom free has to be improved.  It is the ones that have it and don't know that I am most worried about.


----------



## Panina (May 28, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Apparently a cruise to Antarctica.
> _All of the 217 people who remained on board were tested for COVID-19. More than half (59 percent) tested positive, but just 19 percent of those patients had symptoms. The other 81 percent were symptom-free. _
> 
> NBC Story


Another article on the subject








						Coronavirus study shows 81% aboard cruise ship were asymptomatic, raising concerns on lifting lockdown
					

A new study has revealed that more than 80 percent of passengers and crew members on a cruise ship that contracted COVID-19 were asymptomatic.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Blues (May 28, 2020)

Wisconsin Sees Highest Single Day Rise in Coronavirus Cases and Deaths Since Outbreak Began

This is almost exactly two weeks after the Wisconsin Supreme Court invalidated the state's SIP order, and residents packed the local bars.


----------



## Ken555 (May 28, 2020)

Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.









						Bad state data hides coronavirus threat as Trump pushes reopening — POLITICO
					

Test counts inflated, death tolls deflated, metrics shifted.




					apple.news
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## isisdave (May 28, 2020)

https://www.the-hospitalist.org/hos...rsal-testing-many-covid-19-pregnant-women-are and also a pre-paper at nejm.org

Tested all 215 women arriving to deliver babies at a NYC hospital over two weeks March-April.
33 were positive (14%), of these 29 (88% of the 33) had no symptoms.


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## Panina (May 28, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Whether it is true or not, the truth will come out.   We live in a free nation, hospitals, staff, etc will speak up.


----------



## geekette (May 28, 2020)

Blues said:


> This is almost exactly two weeks after the Wisconsin Supreme Court invalidated the state's SIP order, and residents packed the local bars.


I wondered.   Time passes so strangely, I can't keep track anymore.   Thank you for passing along the expected, yet horrible, info.


----------



## geekette (May 28, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.


Yes.  Kerfuffle is the kindest term I can attach to the mishandling of data.


----------



## geekette (May 28, 2020)

Panina said:


> Whether it is true or not, the truth will come out.   We live in a free nation, hospitals, staff, etc will speak up.


It's not really going to be up to them.  They only know the patients they saw, and which they shepherded to the door, or, were with at expiration.  I believe it is going to be the coroners and boards of health that get this together.  I do agree, the truth will come out.  Anyone intentionally hiding or changing data should face consequences.   Accidents are a different matter.  Crap happens, especially during stressful emergencies.  Willfully misleading, however, is unacceptable.


----------



## bbodb1 (May 28, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


While I understand the point you are making here, it would have been ideal for the CDC to define and publish THE standards with respect to COVID 19 data in order to ensure data consistency, quality and validity.


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## easyrider (May 28, 2020)

Yes, covid 19 reported infection rates will trend downward. When we look at European countries that are about three weeks ahead of the USA regarding covid 19 we can see this happening.

Even though the reported infection rates are decreasing in the USA, the probability of a second wave this September is a topic that many scientist and doctors agree on. If the second wave is bad there would likely be a third wave. 

Regarding real number statistics on covid 19 mortality , to me it looks like about an average of 20% of those that end up in the hospital with covid 19 actually die. The rate has been decreasing. 

Interesting is that covid 19 will likely take about 2.5 years or longer to "burn out". Also interesting is a vaccine should be available by the time covid 19 "burns out".  

Bill

https://www.businessinsider.com/second-wave-of-coronavirus-infections-may-peak-in-fall-2020-5









						COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review
					

The week’s key data, narrative interpretations, & visualizations.




					www.cdc.gov


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## Ken555 (May 28, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> While I understand the point you are making here, it would have been ideal for the CDC to define and publish THE standards with respect to COVID 19 data in order to ensure data consistency, quality and validity.



We are so far from any definition of ideal that I can’t blame any one institution, but when politicians get involved with defining what counts as a death and instruct coroners not to release data (Georgia) then I can only surmise we are in a world of hurt.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## geekette (May 28, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> While I understand the point you are making here, it would have been ideal for the CDC to define and publish THE standards with respect to COVID 19 data in order to ensure data consistency, quality and validity.


Yes.   We are without widespread standards.   States are not reporting the same way, making any consolidation a bowl of apples and oranges with some bananas thrown in.  Bad data is worse than no data.  

Each of us could go to a different website and get different "answers", even if all say data is current as of right now.  It's a wild west.  Just more preventable mistakes.


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (May 28, 2020)

We can grab hold of stories on a daily basis and get more optimistic or pessimistic.  I prefer to think in terms of what my family and I do, and think through the risks of various activities.

I am feeling comfortable walking, and moving past people in a wide arc, bike riding doing the same, though I ride much less on bike and walking only trails, as there are clumps of people.  I ride in the bike lanes next to streets.  We do get togethers with small number of people sitting at least 6 feet apart, outdoors. We get take out and groceries, wearing masks.

Activities we won't consider for some time are, going to casinos, going to bars, inside, eating in at restaurants, getting haircuts,etc.

There was a piece of information/advice going around during the AIDs epidemic.  If you have sex with someone, you are having sex with everyone your partner has had sex with and so on.  I was safe, in a committed marriage.  Now that advice is of even greater value because you have more contact with people than you probably ever had sex with.


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (May 28, 2020)

I wanted to write this separately.  The states with the lowest per capita death rate per million, are Hawaii-12, Alaska-14, Montana-16 and Wyoming-26.

My observation for the low rates are Hawaii-14 day quarantine, Alaska-isolation, Montana-isolation, Wyoming the same.  During the beginning and growth of the virus impact, Hawaii would normally have millions of visitors, but the quarantine cut that number to thousands.  Alaska, Montana and Wyoming have many fewer visitors during that same time period.  

Yellowstone, Glacier Park and other areas are opening up, and expecting, hoping for many tourists from other parts of the country.  We will have to see what happens to cases/acre in the Fall.


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## easyrider (May 28, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Even if the numbers are totally wrong the conclusions are usually right regarding the numbers. The reason is because there is a best case scenario and a worse case scenario. Somewhere in-between is where we end up. 

Bill


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## Ken555 (May 28, 2020)

easyrider said:


> Even if the numbers are totally wrong the conclusions are usually right regarding the numbers. The reason is because there is a best case scenario and a worse case scenario. Somewhere in-between is where we end up.
> 
> Bill



Sorry, there’s no excuse for not having accurate numbers. This shouldn’t be a guess based on best or worse case scenarios.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## easyrider (May 28, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Sorry, there’s no excuse for not having accurate numbers. This shouldn’t be a guess based on best or worse case scenarios.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



How can there be accurate numbers and why does there there need to be an excuse ? 

The best numbers known would be hospital information, imo. There is a know number of deaths and a known number of recoveries. Using these numbers the mortality rate is about 20% of those who are admitted to hospitals with covid 19. This is some what accurate. If a person believed the numbers false then these numbers would still represent a range of best and worse case senarios. 

All other numbers are data used to determine an estimate only. 

Bill


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## Ken555 (May 28, 2020)

easyrider said:


> How can there be accurate numbers and why does there there need to be an excuse ?
> 
> The best numbers known would be hospital information, imo. There is a know number of deaths and a known number of recoveries. Using these numbers the mortality rate is about 20% of those who are admitted to hospitals with covid 19. This is some what accurate. If a person believed the numbers false then these numbers would still represent a range of best and worse case senarios.
> 
> ...



Did you read the article I posted? If not, please do so.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## easyrider (May 28, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Did you read the article I posted? If not, please do so.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



Yes, I did. For the article to be true a person would need to believe that doctors are falsifying information. I don't think they are as there isn't any reason for doctors to do this. 

But for kicks and giggles, lets assume they are manipulating the data. It can only be manipulated to a certain extent when comparing hospital mortality to hospital admissions to get a percentage. If they under count or over count it doesn't mater as the real percentage is based on mortality over admissions. 

I don't consider Politico a reliable science type media. We all know why people use media like this to support their opinion. Maybe using the CDC numbers is better in this situation, imo. 









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.




					www.cdc.gov
				




Bill


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## Ken555 (May 28, 2020)

easyrider said:


> Yes, I did. For the article to be true a person would need to believe that doctors are falsifying information. I don't think they are as there isn't any reason for doctors to do this.
> 
> But for kicks and giggles, lets assume they are manipulating the data. It can only be manipulated to a certain extent when comparing hospital mortality to hospital admissions to get a percentage. If they under count or over count it doesn't mater as the real percentage is based on mortality over admissions.
> 
> ...



I’m sure we will see more articles like this in the coming weeks. Watch for it and don’t be surprised. You know, for kicks and giggles. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Monykalyn (May 28, 2020)

Blues said:


> Wisconsin Sees Highest Single Day Rise in Coronavirus Cases and Deaths Since Outbreak Began
> 
> This is almost exactly two weeks after the Wisconsin Supreme Court invalidated the state's SIP order, and residents packed the local bars.


 And yet...hmmm-reading beyond the headlines the state also recorded a record number of tests. Last time they recorded >500 confirmed cases they tested 6000, this time that would be over 10,000. Quite a different picture than what a click baity headline proclaims. 


easyrider said:


> September is a topic that many scientist and doctors agree on. If the second wave is bad there would likely be a third wave.


No not all scientists agree. And studies now coming out that asymptomatic may not be anywhere near as infectious as the first alarmists thought.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html 
the weekly rates for Georgia-the state where cases and hospitals were to be overwhelmed after the governor started opening things up in April. There is a lag time in reporting - yet the trend is sharply down..._which was the goal of the lockdown._ Let's not continually move the goalposts of no more cases or even no more "spikes" of cases with the (also stated goal) of more testing.


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## bbodb1 (May 28, 2020)

The point though @easyrider is a lack of a reporting standard allows inconsistent data to be created  - in my mind, that is a problem that should not exist.  

How are deaths related to COVID 19 being classified and counted?  This standard should be uniform throughout the country, yet that does not seem to be the case.  Without meaning to be morbid, are all the deaths in NYC COVID 19 related?  With the backlog in the coroner's office, how can we know this?


----------



## Panina (May 28, 2020)

This is a new observation.  Maybe older folks are following guidelines more then the young?








						Half of coronavirus cases in Washington state are under the age of 40
					

The coronavirus is moving from older to younger residents in Washington state. Half of the confirmed cases in Washington by early May are under the age of 40, marking a significant shift from the e…




					nypost.com


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## easyrider (May 28, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> And yet...hmmm-reading beyond the headlines the state also recorded a record number of tests. Last time they recorded >500 confirmed cases they tested 6000, this time that would be over 10,000. Quite a different picture than what a click baity headline proclaims.



Yes, test are finally available. The reason test were not available is because of FDA regulations that were recently relaxed by executive order. Many companies had tests available but the red tape prevented these tests. Currently, our health department has been testing many people and the result is many people test positive. So many that our county has the highest positive infection rate on the west coast with about 90 deaths. 

Yesterday I read that there were 250 more positive tests with no deaths for days. I think this will be the trend with testing. 

Bill


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## easyrider (May 28, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> The point though @easyrider is a lack of a reporting standard allows inconsistent data to be created  - in my mind, that is a problem that should not exist.
> 
> How are deaths related to COVID 19 being classified and counted?  This standard should be uniform throughout the country, yet that does not seem to be the case.  Without meaning to be morbid, are all the deaths in NYC COVID 19 related?  With the backlog in the coroner's office, how can we know this?



I agree but that isn't how they keep count. The FDA has a form that allows cause of death to be counted as covid 19 when the patient presents with symptoms. Even if the non-tested causes of death with covid 19 symptoms were not used in the statistics there would still remain a very large number of covid 19 deaths in the hospitals. I think the mortality rate in hospital cases is about 20% and declining. 

Bill


----------



## easyrider (May 28, 2020)

Panina said:


> This is a new observation.  Maybe older folks are following guidelines more then the young?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This is because of the age of essential workers, which in our state includes farm workers. The testing for covid 19 in our county especially includes farm workers and many do test positive. I don't see the social gatherings with young people being the reason why our rate is the highest on the west coast. It is because our county and state is very agriculturally aligned.  

Bill


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## pedro47 (May 29, 2020)

I feel the key to reopening and traveling will be in the hand of Orlando,FL. , New York City and Las Vegas.
If New York City, Vegas , Orlando Disney and Orlando Universal can set a good example for social distancing with large  crowds. The spread of Covid 19 Will truly begins to level down.


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## billymach4 (Jul 3, 2020)

Wow I looked back at the date I started this thread. May 22, 2020. The country was looking good. Cases were trending down.
Then on May 25, 2020 the George Floyd incident set off a firestorm. 

Since then the Northeast states have at least got a hold of the spread. 

Unfortunately the rest of the country has not been able to control the spread.  Very disappointed at the segment of the US population that just can't adjust their behavior.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 3, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Very disappointed at the segment of the US population that just can't adjust their behavior.



There's quite a lot to be disappointed about, not just one particular segment.


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## am1 (Jul 3, 2020)

Cases will continue to rise but locals can get a handle on it.  Places in Asia, then Europe, New York is doing well.  But the next hotspot can break out at any moment or return where people start to relax.  If you are okay with people getting infected and dying then do not worry but if not take your precautions.  If you are not doing your part you are for a certain percentage of people dying.  It’s really that easy.  Birthday parties, vacations, protests do not matter to COVID 19.  Any contact with others makes it worse for all of us but especially the most vulnerable based on age and resources.


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## geist1223 (Jul 4, 2020)

I will not comment concerning what I think because then this thread would get shut down for going political.


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## CO skier (Jul 4, 2020)

When will "experts" stop candy-coating this epidemic and fooling people it can be "contained" in the US?  "Experts" led us (and public policy makers) to believe a 14-day shutdown was the "answer."  2.5 MONTHS later the shutdown meant nothing and we are again facing the same decisions from 2.5 MONTHS ago -- more daily cases than ever.  

It is waaaay past time to acknowledge the inevitable; shutdowns and unenforceable "quarantines" of the healthy are a failed public policy.  94% of the US population is still vulnerable to Covid-19.  (That is something the flatten-the-curve "experts" did not inform the politicians and public.  What happens after we "flatten-the-curve?  Hint:  There will be a Spike to the pre-shutdown, inevitable infection curve.)   Take reasonable precautions, preserve something of the economy like Sweden did, and accept the fact there is an undeniable mortality rate.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 4, 2020)

CO skier said:


> When will "experts" stop candy-coating this epidemic and fooling people it can be "contained" in the US? "Experts" led us (and public policy makers) to believe a 14-day shutdown was the "answer." 2.5 MONTHS later the shutdown meant nothing and we are again facing the same decisions from 2.5 MONTHS ago -- more daily cases than ever.
> 
> It is waaaay past time to acknowledge the inevitable; shutdowns and unenforceable "quarantines" of the healthy are a failed public policy. 94% of the US population is still vulnerable to Covid-19. (That is something the flatten-the-curve "experts" did not inform the politicians and public. What happens after we "flatten-the-curve? Hint: There will be a Spike to the pre-shutdown, inevitable infection curve.) Take reasonable precautions, preserve something of the economy like Sweden did, and accept the fact there is an undeniable mortality rate.



The majority of states did not follow their own minimum guidelines for reopening. We did not follow the recommendations, so don’t even pretend that we did! Your statement is simply laughable.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## CO skier (Jul 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> The majority of states did not follow their own minimum guidelines for reopening.


The majority of states DID follow the recommendation to shutdown.  Where did that get them?  Back to near Square One.  And we are seeing the effects of opening society.  So don't even pretend to believe shutdowns got us anywhere.  94% of the US population has not been exposed to Covid-19.  Yes, they will eventually catch Covid-19.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 4, 2020)

CO skier said:


> The majority of states DID follow the recommendation to shutdown. Where did that get them? Back to near Square One. And we are seeing the effects of opening society. So don't even pretend to believe shutdowns got us anywhere.



False. The majority of states started to follow the recommendations and then reopened before they met them. This info is everywhere...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## CO skier (Jul 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> False. The majority of states started to follow the recommendations and then reopened before they met them. This info is everywhere...


So, the shutdowns got them nowhere.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 4, 2020)

CO skier said:


> So, the shutdowns got them nowhere.



Glad to see you are no longer posting fake news. 

Ask yourself why the states reopened without meeting their own requirements.


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----------



## Bucky (Jul 4, 2020)

Not going to get better quick when we listen to politicians instead of infectious disease experts. It’s distressing to see them undermined and disregarded at every turn. It used to be we listened to our experts! Not so much anymore. CDC used to be the gold standard.now they have been made irrelevant. It’s a shame. This could have been brought under control quickly if everyone would have cooperated.


----------



## DavidnRobin (Jul 4, 2020)

Apples to Apples
(Approximately the same population number)


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## bbodb1 (Jul 4, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> Apples to Apples
> (Approximately the same population number)
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Are the testing rates similar?
If so, then I would agree with the produce analogy.


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Jul 4, 2020)

Someone posted that we should be following the Swedish model.  My question is, have you looked at the results of the Swedish model in Sweden.  If we had followed the Swedish method we would have 177,000+ deaths in the US, rather than the current 132,000+ deaths.  Somehow that doesn't work for me.  

One of the major problems in the US is by leaving each state to determine their own guidelines and rules, we have 50 different models.  Some states have been quite strict, Hawaii jumps to the front, and others have been cavalier, FL, TX and AZ come to mind.  

There continues to be no national strategy and probably won't be one for about 7 more months.  Leaders lead, in either a positive manner or a negative manner.  But which ever way they go they will have followers.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 4, 2020)

am1 said:


> Cases will continue to rise but locals can get a handle on it.  Places in Asia, then Europe, New York is doing well.  But the next hotspot can break out at any moment or return where people start to relax.  If you are okay with people getting infected and dying then do not worry but if not take your precautions.  If you are not doing your part you are for a certain percentage of people dying.  It’s really that easy.  Birthday parties, vacations, protests do not matter to COVID 19.  Any contact with others makes it worse for all of us but especially the most vulnerable based on age and resources.


New York "doing well" is questionable as NY still has the highest new deaths of any state.  

But if people think they are "doing well" at the moment, they did not "do well" at all.   We can't forget all those bodies piled up in trailers. The most vulnerable, who were going to die from C19, likely have died.  

CA, FLA, AZ and TX have a lot of catching up to do:

USATotalNewDeaths/StateDeathsDeaths1M popNew Jersey15,250171,717New York32,215241,656Connecticut4,3351,216Massachusetts8,1491,182Arizona1,80517248Florida3,70317172California6,314160Texas2,62190


----------



## davidvel (Jul 4, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> Someone posted that we should be following the Swedish model.  My question is, have you looked at the results of the Swedish model in Sweden.  If we had followed the Swedish method we would have 177,000+ deaths in the US, rather than the current 132,000+ deaths.  Somehow that doesn't work for me.
> 
> One of the major problems in the US is by leaving each state to determine their own guidelines and rules, we have 50 different models.  Some states have been quite strict, Hawaii jumps to the front, and others have been cavalier, FL, TX and AZ come to mind.
> 
> There continues to be no national strategy and probably won't be one for about 7 more months.  Leaders lead, in either a positive manner or a negative manner.  But which ever way they go they will have followers.


I'd place a wager that the US will surpass, if not come close, to Sweden's death per population rate.

#CountryNew DeathsDeaths/1M pop7Sweden5379USA145399


----------



## bluehende (Jul 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> New York "doing well" is questionable as NY still has the highest new deaths of any state.
> 
> But if people think they are "doing well" at the moment, they did not "do well" at all.   We can't forget all those bodies piled up in trailers. The most vulnerable, who were going to die from C19, likely have died.
> 
> ...


At this point I think we all owe NY and Boston a debt of gratitude.   It is not good to be the first to deal with a novel virus.  At this point the knowledge gained from their pain has given us a lot of tools to deal with this disease.  If NY and Boston were to have the same problem today they would deal with it much better.  Even if the nightmare that we all basically will get it over time comes to be I think we can all agree we want it later.  IMHO your chances of survival are significantly higher now than in March.  Every month we stay healthy before getting this is important.


----------



## am1 (Jul 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> New York "doing well" is questionable as NY still has the highest new deaths of any state.
> 
> But if people think they are "doing well" at the moment, they did not "do well" at all.   We can't forget all those bodies piled up in trailers. The most vulnerable, who were going to die from C19, likely have died.
> 
> ...



Deaths trail new cases.  Compared to before New York is doing well.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 5, 2020)

am1 said:


> Deaths trail new cases.  Compared to before New York is doing well.


Deaths trail new cases nationwide right now. Nothing particular to NY.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 6, 2020)

bluehende said:


> At this point I think we all owe NY and Boston a debt of gratitude.   It is not good to be the first to deal with a novel virus.  At this point the knowledge gained from their pain has given us a lot of tools to deal with this disease.


Such as?

Because I do not see any "tools" other than "pauses" in the failed shutdowns and unenforceable "quarantines" being used as tools.


----------



## easyrider (Jul 6, 2020)

Recently, there is talk of herd immunity being very close or already happening. 

Bill














						The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19
					

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it's calculated.




					www.quantamagazine.org


----------



## CO skier (Jul 6, 2020)

I did not bother to watch the video.  Sweden is the country closest to some kind of "herd immunity" by a few months, yet they are nowhere close to achieving it.  There is no simple path to beating Covid-19.


----------



## Brett (Jul 6, 2020)

bluehende said:


> At this point I think we all owe NY and Boston a debt of gratitude.   It is not good to be the first to deal with a novel virus.  At this point the knowledge gained from their pain has given us a lot of tools to deal with this disease.  If NY and Boston were to have the same problem today they would deal with it much better.  Even if the nightmare that we all basically will get it over time comes to be I think we can all agree we want it later.  IMHO your chances of survival are significantly higher now than in March.  Every month we stay healthy before getting this is important.



yes

Wall Street Journal  Monday July 6 2020


----------



## bluehende (Jul 6, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Such as?
> 
> Because I do not see any "tools" other than "pauses" in the failed shutdowns and unenforceable "quarantines" being used as tools.


How about the delayed usage of respirators and longer use of higher rates of oxygen.  How about the fact the patients are now moved on their stomach instead of the back.  How about remdesivir,  All of these things were learned in NY and Boston.  But of course focus on the word "tools" instead of what I said. You conflated number of cases with survivability of a case.  Those are 2 very different issues.  Of course if you want to talk the other issue, a mask is not a hammer but the virus may beg to differ.









						Respiratory Support in COVID-19 Patients, with a Focus on Resource-Limited Settings
					

The ongoing novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is threatening the global human population, including in countries with resource-limited health facilities. Severe bilateral pneumonia is the main feature of severe COVID-19, and adequate ventilatory support is crucial for patient...




					www.ajtmh.org


----------



## "Roger" (Jul 6, 2020)

easyrider said:


> Recently, there is talk of herd immunity being very close or already happening.











						Study shows Spain far from having 'herd immunity' to virus
					

A second round of random testing in Spain for antibodies to the new coronavirus indicates that a third of those infected do not develop symptoms, Spanish health authorities said Thursday.




					medicalxpress.com


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 6, 2020)

Re herd immunity, this report was just published today.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study



> The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas. Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic. These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave.





			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext
		



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## billymach4 (Jul 11, 2020)

This is just my opinion, feeling, prediction about this crisis. 

The country is in a health care tailspin. At some level at the federal level either by a congressional veto proof legislative measure or Presidential order we will have to shut down hard again and remain shut. I don't see any way out of this since there is not any vaccine available. 

I may be wrong but every day the data is not going in the right direction. At some point the system will break down again.


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## cman (Jul 12, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> This is just my opinion, feeling, prediction about this crisis.
> 
> The country is in a health care tailspin. At some level at the federal level either by a congressional veto proof legislative measure or Presidential order we will have to shut down hard again and remain shut. I don't see any way out of this since there is not any vaccine available.
> 
> I may be wrong but every day the data is not going in the right direction. At some point the system will break down again.


Wish I could disagree with you, but I think you are spot on.


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 13, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> This is just my opinion, feeling, prediction about this crisis.
> 
> The country is in a health care tailspin. At some level at the federal level either by a congressional veto proof legislative measure or Presidential order we will have to shut down hard again and remain shut. I don't see any way out of this since there is not any vaccine available.
> 
> I may be wrong but every day the data is not going in the right direction. At some point the system will break down again.



Well this was just yesterday. So sorry for those in California that are losing their jobs and livelihood.


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## Rocknie (Jul 18, 2020)

By wearing a mask EVERYWHERE in public we would slow the spread of coronavirus!  Until that is done numbers will continue to climb!


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## billymach4 (Jul 18, 2020)

Rocknie said:


> By wearing a mask EVERYWHERE in public we would slow the spread of coronavirus!  Until that is done numbers will continue to climb!


Spot on! We have a winner!


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## pedro47 (Jul 18, 2020)

The temperatures in Virginia for the past seven (7) days have average over 91 degrees and the coronavirus have risen  every day.  It’s have been Hot and very Humid


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## bbodb1 (Jul 18, 2020)

Rocknie said:


> By wearing a mask EVERYWHERE in public we would slow the spread of coronavirus!  Until that is done numbers will continue to climb!



_And by staying home, you drop the spread even further and faster..._


----------



## pedro47 (Jul 18, 2020)

I liked the OP topics of this thread.

Will This Covid Spread Continue To Level Down ?

Have I miss something about COVID-19 and the continuing spike of this coronavirus in the United States.?

Please wear a mask, wash your hands and practice social distancing.

Please Stay Home.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 18, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> I liked the OP topics of this thread.
> 
> Will This Covid Spread Continue To Level Down ?
> 
> ...



Did you see this post? 








						What we’ve learned about how to catch — or avoid — covid-19
					

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-weve-learned-about-how-to-catch--or-avoid--covid-19/2020/07/17/08a964bc-c6ca-11ea-b037-f9711f89ee46_story.html?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-b-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans  CAN JUST breathing the air get you infected with the...




					tugbbs.com


----------



## am1 (Jul 18, 2020)

There is a path to bearing COVID.  Well other then no contento t with others but that is not possible logistically and by people not caring. What I have not seen talked about is what a cure or first a vaccine is worth to company that comes up with it?  Obviously to the world as a whole it’s priceless.  

How long is everyone willing or can wait it out?  Financially a lot have very few options but a lot do not really know what poor is.  Hopefully as little as possible end up there.  

How many lives are people willing to lose?


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## rjp123 (Jul 18, 2020)

As an American abroad, it is very sad to see how the politicians have politicized the pandemic at the expense of citizens. This is so wrong. Unfortunately I don't see this situation improving.

To my immediate family who still lives in the US, I've suggested they get out (they fortunately can). They are making their plans now to temporarily leave.

Wear a mask when out, stay at home and isolate. The virus is no joke - regardless of age. My wife's a PhD in Toxicology and this thing is insidious for all and dangerous for many (regardless of age).

It's not 100% about death.  Many of those who survive have significant health issues afterwards, some of which will impact them for life. 

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## Glynda (Jul 18, 2020)

rjp123 said:


> As an American abroad, it is very sad to see how the politicians have politicized the pandemic at the expense of citizens. This is so wrong. Unfortunately I don't see this situation improving.
> 
> To my immediate family who still lives in the US, I've suggested they get out (they fortunately can). They are making their plans now to temporarily leave.
> 
> ...



That's what most here arguing the statistics, shut-downs, and masks are ignoring. It's not just about life or death. It's also about possibly of never being the same again!


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## rjp123 (Jul 18, 2020)

And wear a mask - not to protect yourself, but to protect others. Be a good human. 

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## DavidnRobin (Jul 19, 2020)

Some (Scientists among us) may find this interesting.
@DeniseM - this is an offshoot of the previous publication dealing with the factors (mainly immune related) that lead to serious issues with CV.
Goes to the reasons why some get sicker than others.









						The trinity of COVID-19: immunity, inflammation and intervention - Nature Reviews Immunology
					

In the short time since SARS-CoV-2 infections emerged in humans, much has been learned about the immunological processes that underlie the clinical manifestation of COVID-19. Here, the authors provide an overview of the pathophysiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and discuss potential therapeutic...




					www.nature.com
				





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## DeniseM (Jul 19, 2020)

Thanks, Dave - science and rational thought are welcome here.


----------



## Miss Marty (Jul 19, 2020)

*Will this Covid spread continue to level down? Not in Florida*


Florida reported 12,523 new cases of the coronavirus on Saturday, marking the fifth consecutive day the hot-spot state reported more than 10,000 cases, according to the state's health department. 
The state has reported more than 11,865 cases of the coronavirus on average over the past seven days, up 28.85% compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.









						'We need to close down' — Florida reports more than 10,000 new virus cases for fifth day
					

Over the past seven days, the median age of newly infected people in Florida was above 40, according to the state's health department.




					www.cnbc.com


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## Ken555 (Jul 20, 2020)

‘Our little town is hurting right now.’ Prayers sought as COVID cluster hits rural KS









						‘Our little town is hurting right now.’ Prayers sought as COVID cluster hits rural KS — The Kansas City Star
					

Logan, Kansas, with a large aging population, is dealing with the stark reality that no place is immune from COVID-19. Now, its nursing home has become ground zero in the battle to stop the spread.




					apple.news
				





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## Ken555 (Jul 23, 2020)

Additional actions needed, state warns, or ‘cases are expected to continue to rise rapidly’









						Additional actions needed, state warns, or 'cases are expected to continue to rise rapidly' - Alaska Public Media
					

The state stepped up warnings about Alaska's spike in COVID-19 cases in its weekly summary Tuesday, saying that without more compliance with masking and social distancing, the case count will continue to rise quickly.




					www.alaskapublic.org
				





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## geekette (Jul 23, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Additional actions needed, state warns, or ‘cases are expected to continue to rise rapidly’
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Crap, I thought Alaska had it controlled.


----------



## Brett (Jul 23, 2020)

geekette said:


> Crap, I thought Alaska had it controlled.



it's probably those Alaska reality TV show people

But Florida took a dip yesterday 



July 23  2020


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## Ken555 (Jul 23, 2020)

geekette said:


> Crap, I thought Alaska had it controlled.



Why would Alaska be any different? In fact, I’m kind of surprised it wasn’t an issue earlier. 


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## geekette (Jul 23, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Why would Alaska be any different? In fact, I’m kind of surprised it wasn’t an issue earlier.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Just going from tv graphics, they had been, er, 'lightly impacted.'   Very little in the way of dense population.   

I do recall, early on, I think it was their gov, thinking no problem here, then, it was in their state and he changed his tune.  

I agree, anywhere with people is going to get impacted.  It takes time to know when and how many and exactly where, but this crap isn't going to stop until it stops finding susceptible humans.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 24, 2020)

This is how much he believes in masks


----------



## bluehende (Jul 24, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> This is how much he believes in masks
> View attachment 23986


Or maybe he just put down his water


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 24, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Or maybe he just put down his water



Some people are just too super-critical. It's really far-fetched for any of us to have enough info to criticize him based on his outstanding career record.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 24, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Some people are just too super-critical. It's really far-fetched for any of us to have enough info to criticize him based on his outstanding career record.


And the kind of crap like above leads to this









						Fauci Says ‘Serious Threats’ Have Been Made Against His Family Over Coronavirus Response
					

“I mean, really? Is this the United States of America?”




					www.forbes.com


----------



## Luanne (Jul 24, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Or maybe he just put down his water


Yeah, sounds like someone didn't bother to read the article and explanation, just posted a picture.  Isn't that how rumors get started.


----------



## rjp123 (Jul 24, 2020)

Wish we could downvote posts. 

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## Ken555 (Jul 24, 2020)

rjp123 said:


> Wish we could downvote posts.
> 
> Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk



Yes, wish we could. I would then get tired with all the clicking.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 24, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Or maybe he just put down his water



He was sitting close to his buddy, they probably had direct physical contact multiple times. That alone should be troubling to you, there is nothing accidental or temporary about that, he *chose *to be next to his friend and not 6 ft apart even though the stadium was empty.

In one picture he was talking to his friend, their heads were probably 1 ft apart. They were enjoying the conversation and Dr. Fauci was not wearing a mask. If there was any noise on the stadium at the time, he was probably shouting. His hands were occupied with his phone, he was probably taking a video. Clearly, he was not drinking water during that conversation or while taking the video. In the other picture his hands show a comfortable continuous pose rather than a transition between putting the bottle down and the mask back up. 

The fact that none of you guys find that wrong when he is the one who is supposed to set an example speaks volumes about how one sided comments can be.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 24, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I do not see a bottle of water in his hands in either pictures. How long does it take to put down a bottle of water? You notice his hands, they suggest it may be one of his favorite positions of watching games not a transition to put the bottle down.   Besides, isn't that the excuse everyone makes at Costco for wearing the mask down?
> 
> View attachment 23987


google it....he has a statement and a water bottle inches from his hand.  Of course maybe people could get a life and not try to find anything to try and belittle a man who has given his life to protecting people.  Of course we cannot mention where all this animosity is coming from without the normal suspects calling us political.  

And now back to thread's purpose

today's numbers


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## DannyTS (Jul 24, 2020)

bluehende said:


> google it....he has a statement and a water bottle inches from his hand.  Of course maybe people could get a life and not try to find anything to try and belittle a man who has given his life to protecting people.  Of course we cannot mention where all this animosity is coming from without the normal suspects calling us political.



In the interview he said "I took it down, I took a sip of water, I put it back down". His statement is very problematic because it is clearly false. Then he said he was tested the day before and he was negative. Really Mr. Fauci? There are a lot of false negatives. How you know that you were not one of them? How about your friend? What if he was infected? You would put your wife and the institution you work for in danger. The double standard  is glaring.

He looks pretty good for someone who sacrificed so much.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 24, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In the interview he said "I took it down, I took a sip of water, I put it back up". His statement is very problematic because it is clearly false. Then he said he was tested the day before and he was negative. Really Mr. Fauci? There are a lot of false negatives. How you know that you were not one of them? How about your friend? What if he was infected? You would have taken to your wife and put in danger the institution you work for. The double standard  is glaring.
> 
> He looks pretty good for someone who sacrificed so much.


I remember all that outrage you had over this.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 24, 2020)

bluehende said:


> google it....he has a statement and a water bottle inches from his hand.  Of course maybe people could get a life and not try to find anything to try and belittle a man who has given his life to protecting people.  Of course we cannot mention where all this animosity is coming from without the normal suspects calling us political.
> 
> And now back to thread's purpose
> 
> ...



Yes. It's amazing that some people feel the need to disparage others in such a manner. Of course, since this is about water... I can think of at least one person who has trouble with drinking...


----------



## PcflEZFlng (Jul 24, 2020)

Danny, you're in Canada. We don't need your "help."


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 24, 2020)

PcflEZFlng said:


> Danny, you're in Canada. We don't need your "help."


I think you need all the help you can get


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 24, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yes. It's amazing that some people feel the need to disparage others in such a manner. Of course, since this is about water... I can think of at least one person who has trouble with drinking...


"Disparaging others".... "trouble with drinking".... OK, can you please tell us the person you had in mind?


----------



## rjp123 (Jul 24, 2020)

Just go away, you're making us Canadians look bad. 

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## billymach4 (Jul 24, 2020)

Ladies and Gents please keep this post on topic. Lay off of Dr. Anthony Fauci he is not the enemy.
Remember we are taking the high road


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 24, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Ladies and Gents please keep this post on topic. Lay off of Fauci he is not the enemy.



Exactly. Sadly, it fits a certain perspective to not trust the scientists, the WHO, the CDC...or the numbers...or the classification of the deaths. I think it’s time for me to reread 1984.


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## geekette (Jul 24, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Ladies and Gents please keep this post on topic. Lay off of Dr. Anthony Fauci he is not the enemy.
> Remember we are taking the high road


Thank you.  Dr Fauci and his family are getting death threats already.   Very gross chapter in history.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 24, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I remember all that outrage you had over this.
> 
> View attachment 23990


I am glad you "remember" because I said there should be no political rallies, including demonstrations, until Covid is over. These people should have worn masks once they got there but they should have not been there in the first place. But I guess I can say that they were just drinking water  
By the way, a study showed that they did not contribute to the spread the virus but that is another story.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 24, 2020)

rjp123 said:


> Just go away, you're making us Canadians look bad.
> 
> Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk


I thought we Canadians embraced diversity of opinion. Telling people you do not agree with to go away would not exactly make too many Canadians proud.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 25, 2020)

Going back to the main topic, today Delaware has passed Sweden in the number of deaths/ 1 million people.


----------



## cman (Jul 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Going back to the main topic, today Delaware has passed Sweden in the number of deaths/ 1 million people.


Get off this obsession with Sweden. Want to look at a country that didn't shut down and managed to control the virus? Look to Asia. Taiwan did it, Vietnam did it, numerous others did it also. Sweden's numbers are some of the worst on the planet. Comparing them to American states borders on the ridiculous because damn near ever state in America also sucks. Cherry picking states, to compare against another country is not logical, a waste of time, and is pointless.


----------



## geekette (Jul 25, 2020)

The OP, May 22

"...
Unfortunately in my opinion the virus is continuing to spread in the US and will start to ramp up again.
We are starting to see the spread increase in certain locations again. "

Correct.  Devastating 2 months.  In the US.  About the US.  No level down.

I don't remember who had overflowing ICU's back then, but it's happening now.  I think it was a small town in southern Texas that is to the point of sending home people that have less chance of survival.  Might be happening elsewhere, too, just the article I happened across.  Possibly dozens like it.


----------



## CPNY (Jul 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Or maybe he just put down his water


Then like the rest of us he should put his mask back up, not turn into the face of someone else and laugh and talk. Optics.....Gov Cuomo same thing, the guy hardly wears a mask.


----------



## CPNY (Jul 25, 2020)

cman said:


> Get off this obsession with Sweden. Want to look at a country that didn't shut down and managed to control the virus? Look to Asia. Taiwan did it, Vietnam did it, numerous others did it also. Sweden's numbers are some of the worst on the planet. Comparing them to American states borders on the ridiculous because damn near ever state in America also sucks. Cherry picking states, to compare against another country is not logical, a waste of time, and is pointless.


People there wear masks daily sick or not. In Vietnam they all cover their faces to protect from the sun to keep a light complexion. It’s about status. They cover everything, faces, heads, arms, legs to keep light. A tan says that you “work in the fields” hmm maybe masks work? I prefer masks. People can keep their stank to themselves


----------



## jme (Jul 25, 2020)

Today's new items re Coronavirus pandemic:






						Young, healthy adults with mild COVID-19 also take weeks to recover - CDC
					

HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/RECOVERY:Young, healthy adults with mild COVID-19 also take weeks to recover - CDC




					news.trust.org
				




*VIRUS USA: More than 1,000 deaths for fourth day in row...

Virus Jumps 26 Feet...









						Homemade coronavirus face masks should be two or three layers to stop spread of virus, study finds
					

Homemade cloth face masks of two or three layers are more effective against coronavirus, according to researchers in Australia.




					www.foxnews.com
				



*


----------



## Brett (Jul 25, 2020)

This coronavirus thing will level down any day now

July 25,  2020


----------



## bluehende (Jul 25, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Then like the rest of us he should put his mask back up, not turn into the face of someone else and laugh and talk. Optics.....Gov Cuomo same thing, the guy hardly wears a mask.


I believe he was.  A still picture cannot tell you what he is doing.  Also he says that the person was in his circle.  But as I said this kind of demonization has led to death threats to him and his family.    I hope neither of us has to face the type of scrutiny that taking a drink of water in the mid atlantic in late july is analyzed to death.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 25, 2020)

Worth reading in full, in my opinion.

—-

A Vaccine Reality Check
So much hope is riding on a breakthrough, but a vaccine is only the beginning of the end.









						A Vaccine Reality Check — The Atlantic
					

So much hope is riding on a breakthrough, but a vaccine is only the beginning of the end.




					apple.news
				





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## DannyTS (Jul 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I believe he was.  A still picture cannot tell you what he is doing.  Also he says that the person was in his circle.  But as I said this kind of demonization has led to death threats to him and his family.    I hope neither of us has to face the type of scrutiny that taking a drink of water in the mid atlantic in late july is analyzed to death.


How many of *you* would sit *that close* to anybody? Who is John who was sitting with Dr Fauci? Is there a new CDC guidance that people should not wear masks when talking 1 ft away from a  friend or even be that close to anyone who is not in the same household?

No, he was not just drinking water, he was talking at a distance that is considered unsafe with someone from another  household who was not even supposed to sit that close to him. He was taking a video. He was enjoying the game without a mask.

Can you name a public figure that has NOT received death threats? Has that stopped people (including contributors to this thread) from criticizing them?


----------



## bluehende (Jul 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> How many of *you* would sit *that close* to anybody? Who is John who was sitting with Dr Fauci? Is there a new CDC guidance that people should not wear masks when talking 1 ft away from a  friend or even be that close to anyone who is not in the same household?
> 
> No, he was not just drinking water, he was talking at a distance that is considered unsafe with someone from another  household who was not even supposed to sit that close to him. He was taking a video. He was enjoying the game without a mask.
> 
> Can you name a public figure that has NOT received death threats? Has that stopped people (including contributors to this thread) from criticizing them?



see title of thread.


----------



## SmithOp (Jul 25, 2020)

I’m far more interested in how he was able to attend a baseball game, executive priviledge?

All I saw at the Dodgers game were a lot of cardboard cutouts! It was battle of the gingers with the Giants pitching Carrottops little brother against GOT Turner for the Dodgers.


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## bluehende (Jul 25, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> I’m far more interested in how he was able to attend a baseball game, executive priviledge?
> 
> All I saw at the Dodgers game were a lot of cardboard cutouts! It was battle of the gingers with the Giants pitching Carrottops little brother against GOT Turner for the Dodgers.
> 
> ...


He threw out the first pitch.  Now if you want to criticize his pitch you have a valid point.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> see title of thread.


In case it is not clear, I was responding to your comment. But do you know why what Dr Fauci did is extremely relevant to this thread?  Because for four months people have been asked to give up their jobs, bankrupt their businesses, default on their mortgages, delay their surgeries, not see their loved ones, lock themselves at home, give up their kids' education for a while, just to name a few.

And what have they seen? The scientist from the London Imperial College visiting his mistress while the whole country was in shutdown at his recommendation. Chris Cuomo going out , talking to contractors *while he had Covid*. Andrew Cuomo, rarely wearing masks. Mayors and governors travelling freely with their families while others were in a shutdown. Protests being encouraged for political reasons. Dr Fauci being caught without a mask and basically lying about what actually happened. The list is endless. The hypocrisy and the double standard are appalling and have done nothing to make people more cooperative. The rules for a barber and for Dr Fauci are clearly different.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In case it is not clear, I was responding to your comment. But do you know why what Dr Fauci did is extremely relevant to this thread?  Because for four months people have been asked to give up their jobs, bankrupt their businesses, default on their mortgages, delay their surgeries, not see their loved ones, lock themselves at home, give up their kids' education for a while, just to name a few.
> 
> And what have they seen? The scientist from the London Imperial College visiting his mistress while the whole country was in shutdown at his recommendation. Chris Cuomo going out , talking to contractors *while he had Covid*. Andrew Cuomo, rarely wearing masks. Mayors and governors travelling freely with their families while others were in a shutdown. Protests being encouraged for political reasons. Dr Fauci being caught without a mask and basically lying about what actually happened. The list is endless. The hypocrisy and the double standard are appalling and have done nothing to make people more cooperative. The rules for a barber and for Dr Fauci are clearly different.



Dr Fauci treating ebola patients in 2015


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 25, 2020)

This is what doctors do. Yet, what he did at the game, and lying about it was wrong despite your attempt to whitewash it. One thing he says in interviews, another thing he does in real life:



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/how-fauci-5-other-health-specialists-deal-with-covid-19-risks-in-their-everyday-lives/2020/07/02/d4665ed6-b6fb-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html
		


*Q:* When and where do you wear a mask?
*Anthony S. Fauci, *director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases*:* It dominates everything I do. The only time I don’t wear one is when I am alone, when I am home with my wife, or when I am speaking in public —* provided there is 6 feet between me and the people to whom I am speaking*


----------



## bluehende (Jul 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> This is what doctors do. Yet, what he did at the game, and lying about it was wrong despite your attempt to whitewash it. One thing he says in interviews, another thing he does in real life:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Dr Fauci receiving the Medal of Freedom from President Bush


----------



## tschwa2 (Jul 25, 2020)

Unfortunately we have been going back up in Maryland after more than a more than a month of decreases.  In terms of ICU beds we hit a high of 1700 in early May and then dropped down to the high 300's until 2 weeks ago and now we are ticking up almost every day and are at 544 today.   It is harder to get a test. I guess because of more demand.  This time last month I got a test when the testing rate was around 14,000 per day.  I had my results in 4 days.  Now the testing rate is a little over 22,000 with some days in the 30,000 but it now takes about 8 days to get the results.


----------



## krj9999 (Jul 25, 2020)

Dr. Fauci responds to 'mischievous' criticism after he was photographed with mask off at Nationals game
					

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said Friday that criticism of a photo in which he has his face mask partially down is "sort of mischievous."




					www.foxnews.com
				






DannyTS said:


> This is what doctors do. Yet, what he did at the game, and lying about it was wrong despite your attempt to whitewash it. One thing he says in interviews, another thing he does in real life:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 25, 2020)

krj9999 said:


> Dr. Fauci responds to 'mischievous' criticism after he was photographed with mask off at Nationals game
> 
> 
> National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said Friday that criticism of a photo in which he has his face mask partially down is "sort of mischievous."
> ...


the pictures do not lie


----------



## geekette (Jul 25, 2020)

...Yet, what he did at the game, and lying about it was wrong despite your attempt to whitewash it. One thing he says in interviews, another thing he does in real life: 
...

Yes, even Dr Fauci is not perfect.   He had to remove his mask to drink water.   He is a mortal like the rest of us.   Someone got a photo of him without his mask up, so that somehow proves he does not walk his talk?  Just him, his wife, and good friend in the stands.  He's in his portable bubble.  What is the problem?  

To conclude that he was lying is a reach.  A terrible, grotesque reach.   Of all the people in the world talking smack, this is the guy you land this particular punch on??

Are you looking for him to be fired or what?  What is his terrible crime here?  

And, what the heck does it matter?  


Can we please get back to being mad at the virus?


----------



## bluehende (Jul 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> the pictures do not lie







__





						Anthony S. Fauci Awarded the Highest Honor of the Association of American Physicians
					

Immunologist and AIDS researcher Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), has been awarded the 2007 George M. Kober Medal of the Association of American Physicians (AAP) for his outstanding...




					www.nih.gov


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## DannyTS (Jul 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I hope you realize, when somebody has occupied the same seat for 45 years... you have to be a good politician for that even if you do not actually belong to any party. But pictures do not lie, your attempt to whitewash him in this case only attracts more attention to the contrast between his statements and actions. I could argue that his wife was also not far enough from that person to take her mask down.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I hope you realize, when somebody has occupied the same seat for 45 years... you have to be a good politician for that even if you do not actually belong to any party. But pictures do not lie, your attempt to whitewash him in this case only attracts more attention to the contrast between his statements and actions.
> 
> View attachment 24041
> 
> View attachment 24040











						IDSA Statement in Support of Anthony Fauci, M.D., FIDSA
					






					www.idsociety.org


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> IDSA Statement in Support of Anthony Fauci, M.D., FIDSA
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I am going to let this go, I think everyone has more than enough information about Dr. Fauci wearing or not wearing a mask and lying or not lying about it.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> I am going to let this go, I think anyone has more than enough information about Dr. Fauci wearing or not wearing a mask and lying or not lying about it.











						Scientists as heroes: Let's keep that image in the public eye
					

Science prizes can help focus the attention of investors, corporations, educators, and politicians on the cutting edge of science — and they can keep scientists in the public eye.




					www.statnews.com


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## SmithOp (Jul 25, 2020)

bluehende said:


> He threw out the first pitch. Now if you want to criticize his pitch you have a valid point.



Didnt see it.

So they can let people cram into an airplane for 5 hrs and fly but not sell any seats at an open air stadium, makes no sense, they could sell 10% of the seats and be less crowded than a coast to coast flight.


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## Ken555 (Jul 25, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> Didnt see it.
> 
> So they can let people cram into an airplane for 5 hrs and fly but not sell any seats at an open air stadium, makes no sense, they could sell 10% of the seats and be less crowded than a coast to coast flight.
> 
> ...



What part of this entire mess since January has made sense?


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## billymach4 (Jul 26, 2020)

Air Travel is somewhat of a necessity. Sports is more of an entertainment issue. Think of Sports as an Amenity.


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## bluehende (Jul 26, 2020)

SmithOp said:


> Didnt see it.
> 
> So they can let people cram into an airplane for 5 hrs and fly but not sell any seats at an open air stadium, makes no sense, they could sell 10% of the seats and be less crowded than a coast to coast flight.
> 
> ...


I am guessing it is more the economics of this situation.  The infrastructure to bring fans in is expensive.  Unless they can get a lot of fans in it is not worth the risk.  Their biggest revenue is tv and this year the ratings will be very high.


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 26, 2020)

I am just a regular person. Does not take a genius to figure this out.








						US tops 1,000 coronavirus deaths 4 days in a row as experts urge the country to shut down | CNN
					

As more Covid-19 records get broken, debates on whether to send kids back to school or to shut down the economy again are coming to a head.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 26, 2020)

They defied health rules for a storybook San Francisco wedding. The virus didn’t spare them.









						They defied health rules for a storybook wedding. The virus didn’t spare them. — San Francisco Chronicle
					

The doors were locked. Rows of pews were taped off. The guests were arriving, as instructed, from an underground parking garage through a back door that led to the church interior.




					apple.news
				





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## Luanne (Jul 26, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> They defied health rules for a storybook San Francisco wedding. The virus didn’t spare them.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Couldn't read the whole story without a subscription.  I'm guessing it didn't end well.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Couldn't read the whole story without a subscription. I'm guessing it didn't end well.



Yup. The newlywed couple and at least eight others contracted C19. The church had posted signs that there should not be gatherings, yet they had the wedding with guests arriving via a back entrance. The city had a tip and sent someone to instruct them to move it outside. 

I’m sure similar events are happening elsewhere. My neighbor emailed me this morning that they are hosting a birthday party (off site) tonight...and I’m not surprised, since they are classic examples of Karen and Kevin...but it’s infuriating. They are why we cannot control this epidemic. And yes, it violates local guidelines on gatherings. 


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## Luanne (Jul 26, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yup. The newlywed couple and at least eight others contracted C19. The church had posted signs that there should be gatherings, yet they had the wedding with guests arriving via a back entrance. The city had a tip and sent someone to instruct them to move it outside.
> 
> I’m sure similar events are happening elsewhere. My neighbor emailed me this morning that they are hosting a birthday party (off site) tonight...and I’m not surprised, since they are classic examples of Karen and Kevin...but it’s infuriating. They are why we cannot control this epidemic. And yes, it violates local guidelines on gatherings.
> 
> ...


Oh I'm sure it's happening as well.

A friend of mine has assumed the position of co-president in an organization I'm active in.  I have stepped back from a board position, but still get called on for advice and input.  We have been meeting via Zoom but my friend decided she doesn't like meeting like that and wants to have a board meeting in person.  She asked me if we could meet at the park.  I reminded her that we are still prohibited from having gatherings over 5 people.  Also there are several other board members (one married to a doctor) who are adamant about not meeting in person.  My friend finally backed down, but left to her own devices I'm sure she could have called an in person meeting.


----------



## Brett (Jul 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Couldn't read the whole story without a subscription.  I'm guessing it didn't end well.


[Reproduction of entire copyrighted articles is not permitted by copyright law.  Please review the section of the forum's Posting Rules dealing with copyrighted materials.]


----------



## Luanne (Jul 26, 2020)

@Brett thanks for posting the whole article.

I think people just don't think.  Or think "it won't happen to me".  Or think "I don't want my [whatever] spoiled.

A friend of mine posted some pictures of a wedding shower she attended.  Someone posted asking where the masks were. She responded that everyone wore masks in, but took them off to eat. From the pictures I saw they must have been eating the entire time, even when they were playing games, etc., as I saw NO masks in any of the pictures posted.


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## Ken555 (Jul 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I think people just don't think. Or think "it won't happen to me". Or think "I don't want my [whatever] spoiled.



Yes. Actually, I think it’s more of “those rules don’t apply to me, they only apply to everyone else”.


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## CPNY (Jul 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In case it is not clear, I was responding to your comment. But do you know why what Dr Fauci did is extremely relevant to this thread?  Because for four months people have been asked to give up their jobs, bankrupt their businesses, default on their mortgages, delay their surgeries, not see their loved ones, lock themselves at home, give up their kids' education for a while, just to name a few.
> 
> And what have they seen? The scientist from the London Imperial College visiting his mistress while the whole country was in shutdown at his recommendation. Chris Cuomo going out , talking to contractors *while he had Covid*. Andrew Cuomo, rarely wearing masks. Mayors and governors travelling freely with their families while others were in a shutdown. Protests being encouraged for political reasons. Dr Fauci being caught without a mask and basically lying about what actually happened. The list is endless. The hypocrisy and the double standard are appalling and have done nothing to make people more cooperative. The rules for a barber and for Dr Fauci are clearly different.


Couldn’t agree more.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Because for four months people have been asked to give up their jobs, bankrupt their businesses, default on their mortgages, delay their surgeries, not see their loved ones, lock themselves at home, give up their kids' education for a while, just to name a few.
> 
> And what have they seen? The scientist from the London Imperial College visiting his mistress while the whole country was in shutdown at his recommendation. Chris Cuomo going out , talking to contractors *while he had Covid*. Andrew Cuomo, rarely wearing masks. Mayors and governors travelling freely with their families while others were in a shutdown. Protests being encouraged for political reasons. Dr Fauci being caught without a mask and basically lying about what actually happened. The list is endless. The hypocrisy and the double standard are appalling and have done nothing to make people more cooperative. The rules for a barber and for Dr Fauci are clearly different.


Meanwhile in Sweden, there is none of this angst and duplicities, because the national epidemiologist was honest with the politicians and citizenry from the beginning.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 26, 2020)

Sweden's lax COVID-19 response caused too many deaths, country's top epidemiologist says
					

The country should have done more, he says.




					www.livescience.com
				




title

*Sweden's lax COVID-19 response caused too many deaths, country's top epidemiologist says*


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 26, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Sweden's lax COVID-19 response caused too many deaths, country's top epidemiologist says
> 
> 
> The country should have done more, he says.
> ...



Yeah, but it’s okay because he was honest and didn’t have political or practical reasons to say not to wear a mask... 

ETA: leadership starts at the top. What message are Americans receiving by that not-so-consistent influence in regards to masks, safety, and Clorox?


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## CO skier (Jul 26, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Sweden's lax COVID-19 response caused too many deaths, country's top epidemiologist says
> 
> 
> The country should have done more, he says.
> ...


And every other country "should have done more", too (with months of hindsight).

Sweden's death rate is not "Off the charts" as models in March predicted.  Sweden did not "overload" their ICU beds and other "catastrophes" predicted by the "models." in March.

Sweden took a HUGE chance by not shutting down their society.  Sure, "mistakes were made" (what country cannot say that).  More and more, the statistics from Sweden show how ineffective a societal shutdown is in the face of a pandemic.

As US states or countries emerge from "shutdown" they are exposed to the same exponential curve of infection Sweden accepted from the beginning.

So shutdown until there is a WIDELY available vaccine, or accept what Sweden accepted from the beginning?  Those are the current choices.

What we see, instead, in the US is flip-flop measures by Keystone Cops who are advised by "experts" who do not understand what the "experts" in Sweden understood from the beginning.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 26, 2020)

Sweden's controversial anti-lockdown strategy resulted in a high death toll and no real economic gain, data shows
					

"They literally gained nothing," an economist told The New York Times. "It's a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains."




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 26, 2020)

CO skier said:


> And every other country "should have done more", too (with months of hindsight).


I read the article at the time. It was the  statement of an honest man. Virtually the only one who said that mistakes were also made. He was referring to protecting better the vulnerable, not about the overall strategy. The media though took what they needed from that interview and crucified him.


----------



## DavidnRobin (Jul 26, 2020)

Another interesting read on current vaccines.



			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.17.20140533v1.full.pdf
		


Synopsis for @DeniseM
Of the early COVID19 vaccine results, it looks like only the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine generates clear CD8+ T cell immunity. Anti SARSCoV2 CD8 T cell responses are likely to be particularly important part of immunity- but also particularly hard to generate. Is this an Spike epitope issue? Are these early vaccine efforts hampered in CD8 T cell response because immunization is limited to Spike (eg vs N)? Unfortunate that the Oxford/AZ vaccine didn't profile T cells as completely as BioNTech/Pfizer did.


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## DannyTS (Jul 26, 2020)

@bluehende Sweden was served a bad hand, look at the high number of cases and deaths in March and early April and those would have not been prevented by a shutdown. That was the peak though, the number of deaths has been going down ever since so their strategy seems to be working






						Experience
					






					experience.arcgis.com
				




DEATHS/DAY


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 26, 2020)

I still do not know a single person who has gotten Covid. I keep expecting someone I know to come down with it given how contagious it is. My sister in law is a nurse. My nephew is a firefighter. One of my brothers is not that careful and he is taking his three kids to Texas for camping (flying from Florida). I would not advise that but he is stubborn and we think he does not believe Covid is real. The riskiest thing I have done is get my haircut a week ago and I am still healthy. Also a pool contractor came by to give us a bid on resurfacing the pool and then later last week we met him at a couple houses to look at some pools with the materials installed. We have been allowing our house cleaners to continue cleaning every 3 weeks. She comes with a crew of 2 or 3. So far, they have been fine too. Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?


----------



## bluehende (Jul 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> @bluehende Sweden was served a bad hand, look at the high number of cases and deaths in March and early April and those would have not been prevented by a shutdown. That was the peak though, the number of deaths has been going down ever since so their strategy seems to be working
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yet all of their neighbors that surround them did fine.  Seems to be a self inflicted wound to me


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 26, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Yet all of their neighbors that surround them did fine.  Seems to be a self inflicted wound to me


We discussed this before, didn't we? The neighbors started from a much lower number of cases in March, and that had also had nothing to do with the shutdown. Let's move on.


----------



## geekette (Jul 26, 2020)

....So shutdown until there is a WIDELY available vaccine, or accept what Sweden accepted from the beginning?  Those are the current choices. 

No, there are many more choices than that.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 26, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Sweden's controversial anti-lockdown strategy resulted in a high death toll and no real economic gain, data shows
> 
> 
> "They literally gained nothing," an economist told The New York Times. "It's a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains."
> ...


you posted an older article. The tune is changing concerning the economy as well.

*Sweden had one of the most relaxed COVID-19 lockdowns in the world. There's growing evidence that it helped it weather 2020's economic storm better than anywhere else.









						Sweden had one of the most relaxed COVID-19 lockdowns in the world. There's growing evidence that it helped it weather 2020's economic storm better than anywhere else.
					

Though Sweden was not immune to the pandemic's economic impact, it was the only major economy to grow in the first quarter of the year.




					markets.businessinsider.com
				



*


----------



## CO skier (Jul 26, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Sweden's controversial anti-lockdown strategy resulted in a high death toll and no real economic gain, data shows
> 
> 
> "They literally gained nothing," an economist told The New York Times. "It's a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains."
> ...


Oh, the New York Times.  Where are the Eye-Roll Emojis?


----------



## Luanne (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?


I don't know anyone personally.  But maybe that is because our family and friends are all being as cautious as we are.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

geekette said:


> ....So shutdown until there is a WIDELY available vaccine, or accept what Sweden accepted from the beginning?  Those are the current choices.
> 
> No, there are many more choices than that.


If you look at the number of deaths, you will see that in Sweden most have occurred right at the beginning and that a shutdown mid-March would have not prevented them. What Sweden did was the most rational decision in my opinion because it included more cooperation and less coercion, it is a strategy that is sustainable in the long run and it did not rely on a vaccine that may or may not happen. They also did not have to lie to the population by omitting that after the end of the shutdown the country would be back to square one. The social and economic costs were minimized as well. I do not know if you are concerned at all with the increased lack of safety in some American cities, there is a relationship with the prolonged lockdowns and rise in unemployment. 

In the United States the cost has been _15 million dollars for every person who died_  and there is no evidence that life has actually been saved thought the lock downs, especially in the long run. The money I mentioned was just in the first round of stimulus at the federal level but the actual amount is a multiple of that number.


----------



## geekette (Jul 27, 2020)

....there is no evidence that life has actually been saved thought the lock downs, especially in the long run.

Right.  You can't count the millions of us that haven't died or been infected as proof of anything.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 27, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yup. The newlywed couple and at least eight others contracted C19. The church had posted signs that there should not be gatherings, yet they had the wedding with guests arriving via a back entrance. The city had a tip and sent someone to instruct them to move it outside.
> 
> I’m sure similar events are happening elsewhere. My neighbor emailed me this morning that they are hosting a birthday party (off site) tonight...and I’m not surprised, since they are classic examples of Karen and Kevin...but it’s infuriating. They are why we cannot control this epidemic. And yes, it violates local guidelines on gatherings.
> 
> ...


Any serious illness or death?


----------



## jabberwocky (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?


Nope. I have not met anyone or even heard about anyone in my network that has gotten it (this is a pretty broad network covering much of Canada and the US, part of China, The UK and extensive family connections in Switzerland and Germany). 

I do know of three people close to me who have had cancer treatments delayed and sadly two individuals who committed suicide since March. Unfortunately they aren’t counted as part of the collateral damage from the pandemic.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Any serious illness or death?



Over 652,000 deaths so far. Shouldn’t that be enough of a warning to stop gatherings?


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## bluehende (Jul 27, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Oh, the New York Times.  Where are the Eye-Roll Emojis?


hmmmm  yet the article is from the business insider.  Wonder where that hate of the NY times comes from that even a passing mention in a business insider article gets such a visceral reaction.

Or maybe you could actually address the article.  Or these credentials of that economist

Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington 

The *Peterson Institute for International Economics* (*PIIE*), previously known as the *Institute for International Economics* (*IIE*), is a non-partisan, non-profit think tank focused on international economics, based in Washington, D.C. It was founded by C. Fred Bergsten in 1981 and is currently led by Adam S. Posen. The institute conducts research, provides policy recommendations, and publishes books/articles on a wide range of topics related to international economics.

According to the _2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report_ (Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, University of Pennsylvania), PIIE was number 20 (of 150) in the "Top Think Tanks Worldwide" and number 13 (of 60) in the "Top Think Tanks in the United States".[2]


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

geekette said:


> ....there is no evidence that life has actually been saved thought the lock downs, especially in the long run.
> 
> Right.  You can't count the millions of us that haven't died or been infected as proof of anything.


Based on the models, Sweden was supposed to have 20 times more deaths but they didn't. In Sweden  most deaths are frontloaded, those people would have not been saved by a lockdown starting mid March. They had 2-3 times less deaths per capita than NY, Massachusetts or Connecticut that had lockdowns. Lockdowns only delay the number of deaths but they do not change the total outcome because once you lift them (and you have to eventually) you are back to square one.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I don't know anyone personally.  But maybe that is because our family and friends are all being as cautious as we are.


Maybe that is evidence number 1 that we can keep ourselves safe and we do not need lockdowns.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

bluehende said:


> hmmmm  yet the article is from the business insider.  Wonder where that hate of the NY times comes from that even a passing mention in a business insider article gets such a visceral reaction.
> 
> Or maybe you could actually address the article.  Or these credentials of that economist
> 
> ...


Regardless who published it initially (the NYT was indeed the most quoted at the time) as I pointed out, Business Insider published another article that Sweden has fared much better than anyone else in Europe in terms of economy: "There's growing evidence that it helped it weather 2020's economic storm better than anywhere else". 

One comment about think tanks. Let me be skeptical that there is no political taint in* any* of those based in Washington.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 27, 2020)

bluehende said:


> hmmmm  yet the article is from the business insider.  Wonder where that hate of the NY times comes from that even a passing mention in a business insider article gets such a visceral reaction.
> 
> Or maybe you could actually address the article.  Or these credentials of that economist
> 
> ...



Given what is going on at the NY Times these days, I have no trust in anything they publish. 
That mistrust extends to _*all*_ of what is referred to these days as the media.


----------



## Brett (Jul 27, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Based on the models, Sweden was supposed to have 20 times more deaths but they didn't. In Sweden  most deaths are frontloaded, those people would have not been saved by a lockdown starting mid March. They had 2-3 times less deaths per capita than NY, Massachusetts or Connecticut that had lockdowns. Lockdowns only delay the number of deaths but they do not change the total outcome because once you lift them (and you have to eventually) you are back to square one.



wow - still obsessed with Sweden 

Socialized government healthcare   70% personal income tax rate -  25% sales tax
where people respect the federal government

*You must love Bernie !*


----------



## Glynda (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I still do not know a single person who has gotten Covid. I keep expecting someone I know to come down with it given how contagious it is. My sister in law is a nurse. My nephew is a firefighter. One of my brothers is not that careful and he is taking his three kids to Texas for camping (flying from Florida). I would not advise that but he is stubborn and we think he does not believe Covid is real. The riskiest thing I have done is get my haircut a week ago and I am still healthy. Also a pool contractor came by to give us a bid on resurfacing the pool and then later last week we met him at a couple houses to look at some pools with the materials installed. We have been allowing our house cleaners to continue cleaning every 3 weeks. She comes with a crew of 2 or 3. So far, they have been fine too. Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?


I didn’t until last week. A friend of my mother, who would pick her up and bring her home from bridge and who also visited her at our house, died after two weeks on a respirator and her husband also has it.  Sad story. She and her husband had long planned to scale back and move into an indepedent house at the Presbyterian Home in Summerville. Their house sold quickly and they moved in and two weeks later she was taken to the ER, put immediately into the ICU on a respirator. She had no underlying conditions except age. Then we learned that neighbors around the corner both have it as do other members of their extended family who gathered together in Myrtle Beach for vacation. The church a few blocks from us that my mother used to attend, upon last hearing, had 4 test positive. All of this has me tightening back up on staying in place.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

Brett said:


> wow - still obsessed with Sweden
> 
> Socialized government healthcare   70% personal income tax rate -  25% sales tax
> where people respect the federal government
> ...


Classical political comment Brett™ .

If you had followed the thread, others brought back Sweden into the mix. You have used the words "fixation" and "obsession". They are not necessarily nice words and they are probably meant as an attack (keep on going!) but  I truly do not understand why Sweden is not studied more in this context. I guess nobody is interested in really finding out what is going on there at this moment. On one side of the spectrum, people want more lockdowns so why look at something that contradicts your theory? On the other side it would be an admission that the initial lockdown might have not been necessary or at least not for that long so better keep the cover on than admit you might have been wrong at the time.


----------



## Brett (Jul 27, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Classical political comment Brett™ .
> 
> If you had followed the thread, others brought back Sweden into the mix. You have used the words "fixation" and "obsession". They are not necessarily nice words and they are probably meant as an attack (keep on going!) but  I truly do not understand why Sweden is not studied more in this context. I guess nobody is interested in really finding out what is going on there at this moment. On one side of the spectrum, people want more lockdowns so why look at something that contradicts your theory? On the other side it would be an admission that the initial lockdown might have not been necessary or at least not for that long so better keep the cover on than admit you might have been wrong at the time.



repeated posts about Sweden?
I'd call it obsessed and fixated.    Admit it - you love Sweden with their 70% personal income tax, 25% sales tax and* federal government run healthcare*

It's Almost Heaven !


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

Brett said:


> repeated posts about Sweden?
> I'd call it obsessed and fixated. Admit it - you love Sweden with their 70% personal income tax, 25% sales tax and* federal government run healthcare*
> 
> It's Almost Heaven !



He’s still posting about Sweden! Wow. Glad I don’t see those posts. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## geekette (Jul 27, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> He’s still posting about Sweden! Wow. Glad I don’t see those posts.


Sometimes I peek.


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I still do not know a single person who has gotten Covid. I keep expecting someone I know to come down with it given how contagious it is. My sister in law is a nurse. My nephew is a firefighter. One of my brothers is not that careful and he is taking his three kids to Texas for camping (flying from Florida). I would not advise that but he is stubborn and we think he does not believe Covid is real. The riskiest thing I have done is get my haircut a week ago and I am still healthy. Also a pool contractor came by to give us a bid on resurfacing the pool and then later last week we met him at a couple houses to look at some pools with the materials installed. We have been allowing our house cleaners to continue cleaning every 3 weeks. She comes with a crew of 2 or 3. So far, they have been fine too. Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?


Cha Ching Just heard of another person that got it!
 You are in the minority


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Cha Ching Just heard of another person that got it!
> You are in the minority



Yeah, I know a few. I'm don't understand this curiosity from those who don't know anyone... it's almost as if they don't believe it's true. Say it ain't so.


----------



## Luanne (Jul 27, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yeah, I know a few. I'm don't understand this curiosity from those who don't know anyone... it's almost as if they don't believe it's true. Say it ain't so.


As I've said I don't know anyone in my inner circle. But I have two friends who have had parents die from it.  I read the reports.  I know it's true.  I just think that those in my circle of family and friends are all being cautious.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

geekette said:


> Sometimes I peek.


Fire away guys, I totally deserve it. I clearly did not meet the quota of posts and comments about barbers and weddings that did not respect the social distancing. There is no limit on those, we just can't have enough of them! Sweden on the other hand clearly gives stomach aches to some people, we should not talk about it.


----------



## DavidnRobin (Jul 27, 2020)

Within 1 degree - I directly know of 3 people that have/had Covid (1 died)
Within 2 degrees - at least 12 people with 4 deaths (known about).
Mostly Latinx (essential workers or within-home transfer)

This does not even account for my former colleagues (mainly Healthcare workers) that have seen 100s, if not 1000s by now.

We personally live in a compliant bubble and plan to for as long as necessary. We are treating this like HIV/AIDS that is spread by Air-Droplets or Fomite. Viruses rarely just disappear. Naive areas will soon see these embers/flames of outbreaks - just a matter of time since we never had real compliance from the outset and have lost control.

@Ken555 - you are right. It has that tone, huh? Next it will be some people defending Plandemic, or the virus was created as a Chinese bioweapon (actually put forth by Fox as Real News). 
Or has that already happened w/o being removed? I have blocked a few Tuggers as I can no longer stand their nonsense (and ignorance).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 27, 2020)

_BaconNumber has become CovidNumber ????_


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 27, 2020)

FWIW: One of the principals at the school I work at is currently on 14 day isolation after contracting the virus.  
How this plays out when the school year starts just got a bit more intriguing.....


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 27, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yeah, I know a few. I'm don't understand this curiosity from those who don't know anyone... it's almost as if they don't believe it's true. Say it ain't so.



That’s a big assumption to say I do not believe Covid is true. People on TUG ask all kind of silly questions and no one passes judgment on them for asking. It was just a question. Stop reading so much into things.

I liked @Luanne’s response. She said maybe those of us who do not know anyone are just more careful and our friends and family are too. That would be a good explanation to me.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> That’s a big assumption to say I do not believe Covid is true. People on TUG ask all kind of silly questions and no one passes judgment on them for asking. It was just a question. Stop reading so much into things.
> 
> I liked @Luanne’s response. She said maybe those of us who do not know anyone are just more careful and our friends and family are too. That would be a good explanation to me.



Where did I say you don't believe it? Sounds like you're a little sensitive on this topic...perhaps I hit a nerve?

As for "reading so much into things", well, this particular point has been made on social media for at least a few weeks to damaging results. I'm not surprised it's on TUG now. Coincidence? Sure, it's possible.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> That’s a big assumption to say I do not believe Covid is true. People on TUG ask all kind of silly questions and no one passes judgment on them for asking. It was just a question. Stop reading so much into things.


A lot of the data was clearly exaggerated at the beginning or just wrong.  Fatality rate  was 6-8%. Transmission  was 6. There were going to be 2.2 million deaths. Transmission through grocery bags. You dared to ask questions and you were labelled  a conspiracy theory peddler (and apparently that practice has not gone away) even if those were very valid questions questions. I think it shows less who has been right or  wrong  and more how we see people around us and talk about them.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 27, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Where did I say you don't believe it? Sounds like you're a little sensitive on this topic...perhaps I hit a nerve?
> 
> As for "reading so much into things", well, this particular point has been made on social media for at least a few weeks to damaging results. I'm not surprised it's on TUG now. Coincidence? Sure, it's possible.



You said it in the post I replied to. You said “I'm don't understand this curiosity from those who don't know anyone... it's almost as if they don't believe it's true. Say it ain't so.” So I replied saying it isn’t so. I do not know what you are talking about when you say this point has been made on social media for the last few weeks to damaging results. I have no idea what you are talking about. This is the only place I hear anything about Covid. I do not go on social media to read or talk about Covid.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> You said it in the post I replied to. You said “I'm don't understand this curiosity from those who don't know anyone... it's almost as if they don't believe it's true. Say it ain't so.” So I replied saying it isn’t so. I do not know what you are talking about when you say this point has been made on social media for the last few weeks to damaging results. I have no idea what you are talking about. This is the only place I hear anything about Covid. I do not go on social media to read or talk about Covid.



I was referring generally to the issue that there are many (on social media) who have questioned the legitimacy of C19 by asking "do you know anyone who has had it?", etc.


----------



## bluehende (Jul 27, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Given what is going on at the NY Times these days, I have no trust in anything they publish.
> That mistrust extends to _*all*_ of what is referred to these days as the media.


What is going on??????????


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

bluehende said:


> What is going on??????????



*








						Resignation Letter — Bari Weiss
					






					www.bariweiss.com
				



*


----------



## Country Roads (Jul 27, 2020)

The people with hidden immunity against Covid-19?

While the latest research suggests that antibodies against Covid-19 could be lost in just three months, a new hope has appeared on the horizon: the enigmatic T cell.

When researchers tested blood samples taken years before the pandemic started, they found T cells which were specifically tailored to detect proteins on the surface of Covid-19









						The people with hidden immunity against Covid-19
					

While the latest research suggests that antibodies against Covid-19 could be lost in just three months, a new hope has appeared on the horizon: the enigmatic T cell.




					www.bbc.com


----------



## Brett (Jul 27, 2020)

bluehende said:


> What is going on??????????




people taking vacation ?  (suddenly)

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_News_controversies*


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 27, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I was referring generally to the issue that there are many (on social media) who have questioned the legitimacy of C19 by asking "do you know anyone who has had it?", etc.



How do you know they are questioning the legitimacy by asking that question? Maybe they were just curious like me. I am still shocked that no one close to me in my family, friend or employee circle or my husband’s company has come down with Covid.


----------



## Rolltydr (Jul 27, 2020)

One of their right wing columnists that delight in suggesting, or outright saying, that liberals are snowflakes, quit a couple of weeks ago whining that she was being mistreated because she is conservative. I haven’t noticed any difference in the reporting and I read it daily.


----------



## bbodb1 (Jul 27, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> One of their right wing columnists that delight in suggesting, or outright saying, that liberals are snowflakes, quit a couple of weeks ago whining that she was being mistreated. I haven’t noticed any difference in the reporting and I read it daily.



And if you believe this is the way that went down, I have some ocean front property in Arizona for you.....


----------



## geekette (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> How do you know they are questioning the legitimacy by asking that question? Maybe they were just curious like me. I am still shocked that no one close to me in my family, friend or employee circle or my husband’s company has come down with Covid.


I am definitely not shocked that none in my close comport have it.  My employed friends have been working from home for months.  I am not close with any essential workers.  the people I know with pre-existing conditions are staying put and not taking risks.  It would be more shocking if my seriously-hunkered-down-aunt got it as it would have to slide under the door.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> How do you know they are questioning the legitimacy by asking that question? Maybe they were just curious like me. I am still shocked that no one close to me in my family, friend or employee circle or my husband’s company has come down with Covid.



The answer to this question would force the mods to close this thread. If you're really interested, you should be able to find the answer.

However, to answer your second question... there are now ~4.4 million cases in the US (assuming you trust the numbers now that they are politically influenced and not being sent from the CDC...which is another topic altogether) and ~330 million people in the US so just ~1.47% positive.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 27, 2020)

geekette said:


> I am definitely not shocked that none in my close comport have it.  My employed friends have been working from home for months.  I am not close with any essential workers.  the people I know with pre-existing conditions are staying put and not taking risks.  It would be more shocking if my seriously-hunkered-down-aunt got it as it would have to slide under the door.



I am shocked because several of my family members are essential workers. Also I am shocked because no one stays home 100%. Everyone has gone out for something like groceries, doctor's appointments and other things. Supposedly many of the people who get it were staying home. A while back Andrew Cuomo said he was shocked because in a study of people admitted to the hospital, the majority said they were mainly staying home. So I assumed at some point, I would know many people who got it that were mainly staying home. Unless you stay home 100% and get no deliveries, there is always a chance you can get it. Given how contagious it is, I would assume more people would have it by now.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 27, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> The answer to this question would force the mods to close this thread. If you're really interested, you should be able to find the answer.
> 
> However, to answer your second question... there are now ~4.4 million cases in the US (assuming you trust the numbers now that they are politically influenced and not being sent from the CDC...which is another topic altogether) and ~330 million people in the US so just ~1.47% positive.



4.4 million cases sounds like a lot but when you say it is only 1.47% of the population, then it is not that many.


----------



## Brett (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> 4.4 million cases sounds like a lot but when you say it is only 1.47% of the population, then it is not that many.



not that many unless you're one of those hit hard by the virus or died
One of our family friends was on a Nile cruise in Feb and got the coronvirus and was in the hospital for a week


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I am shocked because several of my family members are essential workers. Also I am shocked because no one stays home 100%. Everyone has gone out for something like groceries, doctor's appointments and other things. Supposedly many of the people who get it were staying home. A while back Andrew Cuomo said he was shocked because in a study of people admitted to the hospital, the majority said they were mainly staying home. So I assumed at some point, I would know many people who got it that were mainly staying home. Unless you stay home 100% and get no deliveries, there is always a chance you can get it. Given how contagious it is, I would assume more people would have it by now.



Yes, what we've discussed on TUG and I've read elsewhere is that most spread seems to be occurring within households. I don't believe there has been confirmation that anyone caught it from a delivery yet (if so, I haven't seen it and am very interested so if anyone has please post a link). 

Many, if not most, people are staying home and/or are very careful when outside. The articles we see about unsafe activities are typically the exemption (at least, I hope so, but honestly...I'm not sure).


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> 4.4 million cases sounds like a lot but when you say it is only 1.47% of the population, then it is not that many.



That's not correct. Many other countries have zero or almost zero cases. We are still experiencing ~62,000 new cases *every day* (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html). That's many tons of cases... *every day*.


----------



## Luanne (Jul 27, 2020)

Brett said:


> not that many unless you're one of those hit hard by the virus or died
> One of our family friends was on a Nile cruise in Feb and got the coronvirus and was in the hospital for a week


I have some one off instances.  The husband of a woman I worked with years ago was one of the passengers on one of the cruise ships that got hit early on.  It was the Coral Princess.  he died at a Miami hospital after waiting four hours to be transferred off the ship.  She also got the virus, was hospitalized, but recovered.


----------



## Rolltydr (Jul 27, 2020)

geekette said:


> I am definitely not shocked that none in my close comport have it.  My employed friends have been working from home for months.  I am not close with any essential workers.  the people I know with pre-existing conditions are staying put and not taking risks.  It would be more shocking if my seriously-hunkered-down-aunt got it as it would have to slide under the door.


We were notified today that my wife’s brother has tested positive. They think he contracted it at work from his boss who tested positive earlier. Her brother was being very careful, staying in his office as much as possible and always wearing a mask when he had to go out.  He started having a cough last week and has had a very slight fever a couple of times. He threw up over the weekend but he has gastric problems and they don’t think that is related. He says he’s feeling pretty good and he has been quarantined in one part of the house for several days. This is the first person we actually know who has tested positive. I don’t expect it to be the last.


----------



## geekette (Jul 27, 2020)

....Given how contagious it is, I would assume more people would have it by now. 

Much of this depends on how prevalent the virus is in the community, and community compliance with the mask, wash hands, distance, limit trips out thing.   If your essential worker folks are doing their part to keep themselves safe, they may either be effective at that, or virus not that prevalent in their community, or not that prevalent at their job or job is doing a great job on protecting their people.  

honestly, I think some of it is a crapshoot.  We can't see it, we can have it and not know it...  

I'm glad your essential worker friends/family are healthy!


----------



## geekette (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> 4.4 million cases sounds like a lot but when you say it is only 1.47% of the population, then it is not that many.


4.4    That We Know Of...


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## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

geekette said:


> 4.4    That We Know Of...



Yeah, I didn't really want to go there. But I absolutely agree. The actual number is likely much, much higher.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

Brett said:


> not that many unless you're one of those hit hard by the virus or died
> One of our family friends was on a Nile cruise in Feb and got the coronvirus and was in the hospital for a week


Where was your friend tested/hospitalized in February?


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 27, 2020)

geekette said:


> ....Given how contagious it is, I would assume more people would have it by now.
> 
> Much of this depends on how prevalent the virus is in the community, and community compliance with the mask, wash hands, distance, limit trips out thing.   If your essential worker folks are doing their part to keep themselves safe, they may either be effective at that, or virus not that prevalent in their community, or not that prevalent at their job or job is doing a great job on protecting their people.
> 
> ...



My family is in Miami, a hotspot for the virus. One of my brothers is not very careful and he initially thought the virus was a hoax. We have all been concerned about how he goes about his day with his three kids. He has decided to fly them all to Texas to go camping. Why does he not just drive somewhere north and find a campground? None of us in the family understand. I am surprised he has not caught anything yet. My father was keeping his distance from my brother and the kids but I heard they had a birthday party for my father in June and they all met with no masks and no social distancing. That bothered me but what can I do.


----------



## DannyTS (Jul 27, 2020)

geekette said:


> 4.4    That We Know Of...


Another conspiracy theory lol


----------



## am1 (Jul 27, 2020)

geekette said:


> 4.4    That We Know Of...



So far.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 27, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> The answer to this question would force the mods to close this thread. If you're really interested, you should be able to find the answer.
> 
> However, to answer your second question... there are now ~4.4 million cases in the US (assuming you trust the numbers now that they are politically influenced and not being sent from the CDC...which is another topic altogether) and ~330 million people in the US so just ~1.47% positive.


It seems you are implying that only 4.4 million (1.47% of pop) have had COVID. This is wholly inaccurate. This is just how many people have tested positive, not how many are/were positive.  The current average positive tests/test are around 8%.  Most people who test are still those with symptoms. I'd bet total positive levels exceed 15%.


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 27, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It seems you are implying that only 4.4 million (1.47% of pop) have had COVID. This is wholly inaccurate. This is just how many people have tested positive, not how many are/were positive.  The current average positive tests/test are around 8%.  Most people who test are still those with symptoms. I'd bet total positive levels exceed 15%.



So how many people have had Covid since this started in Jan/Feb?


----------



## Luanne (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> So how many people have had Covid since this started in Jan/Feb?


Worldwide?

U.S.?

Your home state?

You should be able to find all of those numbers.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It seems you are implying that only 4.4 million (1.47% of pop) have had COVID. This is wholly inaccurate. This is just how many people have tested positive, not how many are/were positive. The current average positive tests/test are around 8%. Most people who test are still those with symptoms. I'd bet total positive levels exceed 15%.



We’ve had this discussion. See my follow up post above, as well. 

I posted in March I thought the actual count was around 50x that of the reported numbers. That’s obviously changed since then, but it’s clearly higher than the reported count. 

We need to give each other a bit more credit before jumping to conclusions. And yeah, I’m sometimes guilty of that, too.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## TravelTime (Jul 27, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Worldwide?
> 
> U.S.?
> 
> ...



USA. I was asking because @davidvel said the number was higher than the reported 4.4 million. I was wondering if he was getting different numbers than @Ken555.


----------



## Ken555 (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> USA. I was asking because @davidvel said the number was higher than the reported 4.4 million. I was wondering if he was getting different numbers than @Ken555.



The link from the CDC I posted earlier shows 4.2 million. Another site I use shows 4.4. I’m sure others will show different numbers. 

The real question is not the positive test total but rather how many are actually positive. That we don’t know, but can certainly guess, and it’s absolutely higher than the positive test count.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 27, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yeah, I know a few. I'm don't understand this curiosity from those who don't know anyone... it's almost as if they don't believe it's true. Say it ain't so.p


What's worse is when you know personally of more than one person that has died from Covid


----------



## easyrider (Jul 27, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> What's worse is when you know personally of more than one person that has died from Covid



So far, a few people we know have passed away from covid 19 complications. They were all over 80 and all of them were in a nursing home for other problems.

In past years, a few older people we know would pass away from a flu or pneumonia. Not this year though. All old people passed away from covid 19.

Bill


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 27, 2020)

easyrider said:


> So far, a few people we know have passed away from covid 19 complications. They were all over 80 and all of them were in a nursing home for other problems.
> 
> In past years, a few older people we know would pass away from a flu or pneumonia. Not this year though. All old people passed away from covid 19.
> 
> Bill


2 of the individuals were in their 50's (57 cousin) the other not exactly sure. One was in his 60's the others Nursing home types. This shit is no joke.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> So how many people have had Covid since this started in Jan/Feb?


In the US, my guess would be about 50 million. I base this on my presumption that the fatality rate is around .003%, the deaths are about 150K, and the testing numbers leading me to believe that about 15% of the country has had it.


----------



## billymach4 (Jul 28, 2020)

davidvel said:


> In the US, my guess would be about 50 million. I base this on my presumption that the fatality rate is around .003%, the deaths are about 150K, and the testing numbers leading me to believe that about 15% of the country has had it.


Since your guess is seat of pants, off the cuff.... clearly it's totally wrong.


----------



## davidvel (Jul 28, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Since your guess is seat of pants, off the cuff.... clearly it's totally wrong.


We'll only find out in about 2 years, or never.


----------



## CO skier (Jul 28, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> So how many people have had Covid since this started in Jan/Feb?





davidvel said:


> In the US, my guess would be about 50 million. I base this on my presumption that the fatality rate is around .003%, the deaths are about 150K, and the testing numbers leading me to believe that about 15% of the country has had it.





billymach4 said:


> Since your guess is seat of pants, off the cuff.... clearly it's totally wrong.


Estimates from "experts" online puts it at about 23 million at the end of June, so maybe 10% of the US population by now.

Yes, all the shutdowns and "quarantines" over the last 4 months still leaves 90% of the US population vulnerable to the Covid-19 virus.

I do not recall any "expert" explaining in March that this is where we would be in late July.  I think the "experts" were just kicking the can down the road and hoping for a summer season remission like the flu.

The US is really no better off now than in March.  That is what 3 trillion dollars bought.


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## Ken555 (Jul 28, 2020)

CO skier said:


> I do not recall any "expert" explaining in March that this is where we would be in late July. I think the "experts" were just kicking the can down the road and hoping for a summer season remission like the flu.



Actually, I think the experts expected the country to honor the stay at home directive. And, that we should only reopen when the numbers allowed it, and go back to home when and if numbers increased. But no, we reopened without honoring the plan. The “experts” had nothing to do with this colossal leadership failure. Had we let the “experts” dictate our actions, it’s likely that many people would not, and will not, needlessly die.



> The US is really no better off now than in March. That is what 3 trillion dollars bought.



Yup. And the “experts” are not at fault for this historically exceptional failure. 

If we really want to stop the spread, we know exactly what to do. We all stay home...or at least 80-90% of us. And when the R0 is down to ~0.5 the spread will stop fairly quickly. But we are not strong enough to be this restrictive. And instead many tens of thousands more will die.

Stop blaming the “experts”. Blame those who are truly responsible.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## CO skier (Jul 28, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Actually, I think the experts expected the country to honor the stay at home directive.


Which we largely did for the 14 days initially presented, and then the "30 Days to Slow the Spread" and then 2 weeks beyond that, while politicians kicked the can down the road.

Then it became undeniable that Covid-19 could not be "contained" and the economy could not be shutdown until there was a vaccine.

And that is where we are now, essentially back at where we were in March; 90% of the US population vulnerable to Covid-19 now, instead of 94-96% in March.


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## Brett (Jul 28, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Which we largely did for the 14 days initially presented, and then the "30 Days to Slow the Spread" and then 2 weeks beyond that, while politicians kicked the can down the road.
> 
> Then it became undeniable that Covid-19 could not be "contained" and the economy could not be shutdown until there was a vaccine.
> 
> And that is where we are now, essentially back at where we were in March; 90% of the US population vulnerable to Covid-19 now, instead of 94-96% in March.




always blaming the "experts" 

if only there were leadership at the national level   .............  ( like other countries )


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## bluehende (Jul 28, 2020)

davidvel said:


> In the US, my guess would be about 50 million. I base this on my presumption that the fatality rate is around .003%, the deaths are about 150K, and the testing numbers leading me to believe that about 15% of the country has had it.


Hard to justify the fatality rate when NJ already has already had .178% of their entire population die.


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## DannyTS (Jul 28, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Hard to justify the fatality rate when NJ already has already had .178% of their entire population die.


Does that include the motorcycle accidents?


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## geekette (Jul 28, 2020)

davidvel said:


> We'll only find out in about 2 years, or never.


My money is on Never.


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## grupp (Jul 28, 2020)

CO skier said:


> I do not recall any "expert" explaining in March that this is where we would be in late July.  I think the "experts" were just kicking the can down the road and hoping for a summer season remission like the flu.



Although they never really came out in said it, we may be right were some of the experts thought we would be at this point. They originally said that this is not going away until we reach heard immunity or have an effective vaccine, neither of which were ever going to happen in 2-3 months. I believe the first  estimates on heard immunity was around 60%. The original reason for the stay at home orders were to "flatten the curve" not to erratic the virus. This would spread out the number of sick people and not overwhelm our health care system. Somewhere along the way things seem to change and we began to expect some type of different result, which is not realistic in my opinion. 

We may have succeeded somewhat in that goal, although there are several areas currently going through some tough times, most of the country currently has manageable numbers. Currently, the % of deaths are down as we understand who is most at risk and seem to be a better job of protecting those people and hopefully that trend will continue. 

As a society we can't stay locked down indefinitely, although people that are in high risk categories may have no choice. No matter what we do, this is not going away anytime soon and people are going to continue to get sick and sadly some will die. Hopefully, we can find a way to work together and make our way through this as best we can. Usually, tragedies such as this bring us together as a nation, but this one has divided us in many ways and there is plenty of blame to go around as to why that is the case.


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## Ken555 (Jul 28, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Which we largely did for the 14 days initially presented, and then the "30 Days to Slow the Spread" and then 2 weeks beyond that, while politicians kicked the can down the road.
> 
> Then it became undeniable that Covid-19 could not be "contained" and the economy could not be shutdown until there was a vaccine.
> 
> And that is where we are now, essentially back at where we were in March; 90% of the US population vulnerable to Covid-19 now, instead of 94-96% in March.



Your response indicates you didn’t comprehend my post.

We can lower the transmission rate. We simply don’t have the will to do so, which almost every other country has done.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## CO skier (Jul 29, 2020)

grupp said:


> Although they never really came out in said it,


Yes, that is the problem in the USA versus Sweden, which did "really came out and said it" from the beginning.


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## CO skier (Jul 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Your response indicates you didn’t comprehend my post.


One of many times.


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## jme (Jul 29, 2020)

Today's item:

*STUDY: 78% of survivors have heart damage...*


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## WinniWoman (Jul 29, 2020)

jme said:


> Today's item:
> 
> *STUDY: 78% of survivors have heart damage...*



A study of 100 people they gave MRI’s to? Yeah- ok.


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## silentg (Jul 29, 2020)

The latest I hear is, if everyone washes hands, wear a mask, social distance , we can be much lower in cases.


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## Luanne (Jul 29, 2020)

silentg said:


> The latest I hear is, if everyone washes hands, wear a mask, social distance , we can be much lower in cases.


I hear that as well.  The problem is, not everyone will do that.


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## Ken555 (Jul 29, 2020)

silentg said:


> The latest I hear is, if everyone washes hands, wear a mask, social distance , we can be much lower in cases.



It’s so simple... and we are utterly failing at this. It’s a huge indictment on our society, especially when compared to other countries. Every day I’m reading the news (and certain comments on TUG) and just shaking my head in disbelief. This has nothing to do with anyone’s opinion...our numbers are rising so much that those who lead are so scared of the numbers that they are now hiding the info! It’s just a shameful time we are living through in America. Very depressing.


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## silentg (Jul 29, 2020)

Signs should read no shoes,no shirt, no mask, no service, simple


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## Luanne (Jul 29, 2020)

silentg said:


> Signs should read no shoes,no shirt, no mask, no service, simple


They do.  And still people refuse to wear masks, and some throw tantrums, pull guns, or do other disgusting things.


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## Passepartout (Jul 29, 2020)

I just came home from my semi-annual function test and meeting with my pulmonologist. The good news, my progressive lung disease is better, I'm back to where I tested in 2014! WooHoo! So I asked if I should consider a Covid diagnosis a death sentence. He said, "Absolutely not!" If I present at the FIRST evidence of symptoms, I'd have an 85% chance of walking out. Not a walk-in-the-park, but survivable. He said the numbers we see on TV every night undercount the 'real' number of infections by between 4X & 10X. For each person diagnosed as positive, there arre spouses, children, siblings and kids in the household as well as an 'orbit' of friends and acquaintances we all have who have been exposed and may be contagious while being asymptomatic and untested.

The meeting with the doc- Our ONLY pulmonologist- made me feel hopeful, but also encouraged to cover, mask, wash hands and live life as protected as possible.

Jim


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## silentg (Jul 29, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> I just came home from my semi-annual function test and meeting with my pulmonologist. The good news, my progressive lung disease is better, I'm back to where I tested in 2014! WooHoo! So I asked if I should consider a Covid diagnosis a death sentence. He said, "Absolutely not!" If I present at the FIRST evidence of symptoms, I'd have an 85% chance of walking out. Not a walk-in-the-park, but survivable. He said the numbers we see on TV every night undercount the 'real' number of infections by between 4X & 10X. For each person diagnosed as positive, there arre spouses, children, siblings and kids in the household as well as an 'orbit' of friends and acquaintances we all have who have been exposed and may be contagious while being asymptomatic and untested.
> 
> The meeting with the doc- Our ONLY pulmonologist- made me feel hopeful, but also encouraged to cover, mask, wash hands and live life as protected as possible.
> 
> Jim


Common sense is a disappearing thing. Stay safe and healthy. Glad you got a good report from pulmonologist!


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## billymach4 (Jul 29, 2020)

Jim, much to my disappointment and surprise I keep hearing of friends and acquaintances getting COVID in and around Bonneville county and the Lab employees. Including the INL director in charge of the INL. Keep safe. I am sure you will.


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## easyrider (Jul 29, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> Jim, much to my disappointment and surprise I keep hearing of friends and acquaintances getting COVID in and around Bonneville county and the Lab employees. Including the INL director in charge of the INL. Keep safe. I am sure you will.



Don't worry too much. I know over 100+ people that have tested positive for covid 19 and a few that actually had symptoms. The people that had symptoms had a range from flu to loosing their sense of taste and smell. My mom had it in the nursing home she seems to stuck in. She is about 85 and has recovered. 

This is our county case count as of today. Pretty much every one that has passed away from covid in our area had pre-existing conditions with some exceptions in the 30 - 60 ranges. We are still in phase 1. 

Bill

*Updated July 29, 2020 at  4:10 pm*




*Age Range**Case Count* *Percentage**Deceased *0-19136513%020-29227922%130-39193519%3 40-49162816%950-59143514%1460-698448%2670-794414%5280+3984%89*TOTAL*10,325*100%**194*


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## billymach4 (Jul 29, 2020)

easyrider said:


> Don't worry too much. I know over 100+ people that have tested positive for covid 19 and a few that actually had symptoms. The people that had symptoms had a range from flu to loosing their sense of taste and smell. My mom had it in the nursing home she seems to stuck in. She is about 85 and has recovered.
> 
> This is our county case count as of today. Pretty much every one that has passed away from covid in our area had pre-existing conditions with some exceptions in the 30 - 60 ranges. We are still in phase 1.
> 
> ...


DW is severely immune deficient.  Take IV immunoglobulin subcutaneously weekly.  Her body can't manufacture immunity. That's our dilemma.


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## Passepartout (Jul 29, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> DW is severely immune deficient.  Take IV immunoglobulin subcutaneously weekly.  Her body can't manufacture immunity. That's our dilemma.


Wishing Dana all the very best! You guys take good care!


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## easyrider (Jul 29, 2020)

billymach4 said:


> DW is severely immune deficient.  Take IV immunoglobulin subcutaneously weekly.  Her body can't manufacture immunity. That's our dilemma.



Yup, that is a problemo. What do you do ? Is it just avoiding every one ?

Bill


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## DavidnRobin (Aug 1, 2020)

Excellent news article from UCSF on Covid mechanisms that is well written and relatively easy to understand — even @DeniseM 
(Certainly better that The Cell article that I linked previously)
Bottom-Line: ACE2 receptors continue to look like a culprit for disease progression
(btw - looks like IL-6 targeted therapies were a bust...)





__





						We thought it was just a respiratory virus. We were wrong.
					

COVID-19’s effects on the body are much more complex (and potentially destructive) than that, UCSF doctors say.




					www.universityofcalifornia.edu
				





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## jme (Aug 2, 2020)

*FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW GRAPHS*:
A month ago someone on TUG (not naming names) saw that deaths were down (in his graph) and predicted that they would stay down. 
I disagreed and said "show me a graph in a month"......well here it is.
We're in a mess, and it's only getting worse.....People are not adhering to safe practices, and that is the reason.


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## billymach4 (Aug 2, 2020)

jme said:


> *FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW GRAPHS*:
> A month ago someone on TUG (not naming names) saw that deaths were down (in his graph) and predicted that they would stay down.
> I disagreed and said "show me a graph in a month"......well here it is.
> We're in a mess, and it's only getting worse.....People are not adhering to safe practices, and that is the reason.
> ...


Covid Deaths are a lagging always a lagging indicator!


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## Ken555 (Aug 2, 2020)

For those who still think masks only provide partial, or no, protection, please watch this video. It’s somewhat entertaining, so many of you may enjoy it.







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## DannyTS (Aug 2, 2020)

jme said:


> View attachment 24394


how do you explain this:








						Shouldn't epidemiologists revisit the case of Sweden? Hasn't their approach actually worked?
					

I have watched this thread with interest. I have family members who live half the year in Sweden (they are there now). They report that while it is not locked down people are following guidelines for social distancing, hand hygiene, and are wearing masks. The swedish seem much more willing to do...




					tugbbs.com


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## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/health/coronavirus-children-camp.html


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## rapmarks (Aug 2, 2020)

I don’t see an end because everyone is making exceptions.
at our club in Florida, people going to the bar and grill are pulling in chairs and visiting because everyone in our community is careful and therefore safe. (Our community has almost 1000 homes)
in Wisconsin , I have two places to pick up food one quarter mile from my house.  Neither will bring it out to the car.  In both, people are lined up shoulder to shoulder at the bar, and a lot of these people are tourists staying at the timeshare. A lot of them are my neighbors. In one, the waitstaff is mask free,  they all feel it is perfectly safe.

I noticed the golfing members keep having tournaments. They play and then gather for drinks.maybe 24 people, not wearing masks.  One of them helps the community distribute food to the needy and many other helpful activities. The point is so much exposure!
I have socialized with my family. My sons family isolates, my daughter and her children isolate.  However her boyfriend doesn’t believe in Covid.  So I don’t visit very much.


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## am1 (Aug 2, 2020)

Makes me happy I can almost live in my own world and come I. Contact with very few people while still doing what I enjoy.  In a 1000 home community no one is safe of interacting and everyone thinks their safe.


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## Cornell (Aug 2, 2020)

rapmarks said:


> I don’t see an end because everyone is making exceptions.
> at our club in Florida, people going to the bar and grill are pulling in chairs and visiting because everyone in our community is careful and therefore safe. (Our community has almost 1000 homes)
> in Wisconsin , I have two places to pick up food one quarter mile from my house.  Neither will bring it out to the car.  In both, people are lined up shoulder to shoulder at the bar, and a lot of these people are tourists staying at the timeshare. A lot of them are my neighbors. In one, the waitstaff is mask free,  they all feel it is perfectly safe.
> 
> ...


What do you think is going to happen the mask order in Wisconsin?  You think the courts will overturn? Lots of interesting politics up there.


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## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)

*Florida heads toward 500,000 COVID-19 cases; 62 more deaths reported*

August 2   2020

*

*

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0200802-o46a62nj2fbnrglkcffspuigui-story.html

but it might be leveling down ....


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## rapmarks (Aug 2, 2020)

Cornell said:


> What do you think is going to happen the mask order in Wisconsin?  You think the courts will overturn? Lots of interesting politics up there.


The deciding judge had been voted out of office when the vote occurred. The new judge took office August 1 so it probably won’t be overturned. However, I don’t see a lot of mask wearers, I don’t think it will change, and police have already said they will not enforce


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## Cornell (Aug 2, 2020)

rapmarks said:


> The deciding judge had been voted out of office when the vote occurred. The new judge took office August 1 so it probably won’t be overturned. However, I don’t see a lot of mask wearers, I don’t think it will change, and police have already said they will not enforce


Good update... thank you


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## rapmarks (Aug 2, 2020)

A couple of weeks ago, the general manager of Noah’s Ark was let go .  he had written a letter to county board on Noah’s ark letterhead against mask ordinance, calling masks the sign of the beast.  noahs ark closed Friday after two workers tested positive for Covid


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## PigsDad (Aug 2, 2020)

rapmarks said:


> A couple of weeks ago, the general manager of Noah’s Ark was let go .  he had written a letter to county board on Noah’s ark letterhead against mask ordinance, calling masks the sign of the beast.  noahs ark closed Friday after two workers tested positive for Covid


You can't fix stupid.   

Kurt


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## Rolltydr (Aug 2, 2020)

rapmarks said:


> A couple of weeks ago, the general manager of Noah’s Ark was let go .  he had written a letter to county board on Noah’s ark letterhead against mask ordinance, calling masks the sign of the beast.  noahs ark closed Friday after two workers tested positive for Covid


Were there a lot of people in 1941-1945 that thought WW2 was a hoax? I just don’t get it and I guess I should stop wasting my time thinking about it.


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## Rolltydr (Aug 2, 2020)

Not a hoax.








						Bill Montgomery, co-founder of Turning Point USA, dies
					

Montgomery was praised for his devotion to his friends and TPUSA




					www.foxnews.com
				












						Pro-Trump youth group TPUSA deleted a tweet mocking protective masks after its cofounder died of the coronavirus
					

The tweet, a meme mocking "leftists" for advocating protective masks, was posted the same day Bill Montgomery's death was announced.




					www.businessinsider.com


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## Brett (Aug 2, 2020)

rapmarks said:


> A couple of weeks ago, the general manager of Noah’s Ark was let go .  he had written a letter to county board on Noah’s ark letterhead against mask ordinance, calling masks the sign of the beast.  noahs ark closed Friday after two workers tested positive for Covid



In Virginia some people consider wearing a mask a sign of the "beast' 

*https://wset.com/news/local/local-pastor-weighs-in-on-controversial-sign-outside-neighboring-church*


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## Conan (Aug 3, 2020)

Ed Yong's comprehensive article on how we got here:

"The United States has correctly castigated China for its duplicity and the WHO for its laxity—but the U.S. has also failed the international community."
....
"As the coronavirus established itself in the U.S., it found a nation through which it could spread easily, without being detected. For years, Pardis Sabeti, a virologist at the Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT, has been trying to create a surveillance network that would allow hospitals in every major U.S. city to quickly track new viruses through genetic sequencing. Had that network existed, once Chinese scientists published SARS‑CoV‑2’s genome on January 11, every American hospital would have been able to develop its own diagnostic test in preparation for the virus’s arrival. 'I spent a lot of time trying to convince many funders to fund it,' Sabeti told me. 'I never got anywhere.'”








						How the Pandemic Defeated America
					

A virus has brought the world’s most powerful country to its knees.




					www.theatlantic.com


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## TravelTime (Aug 3, 2020)

Conan said:


> Ed Yong's comprehensive article on how we got here:
> 
> "The United States has correctly castigated China for its duplicity and the WHO for its laxity—but the U.S. has also failed the international community."
> ....
> ...



I just saw this article. Its first paragraph sums up my thoughts exactly.

_How did it come to this? A *virus a thousand times smaller than a dust mote* has humbled and humiliated the planet’s most powerful nation. America has failed to protect its people, leaving them with illness and financial ruin. It has lost its status as a global leader. It has careened between inaction and ineptitude. The breadth and magnitude of its errors are difficult, in the moment, to truly fathom._


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## Panina (Aug 3, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I just saw this article. It’s first paragraph sums up my thoughts exactly.
> 
> _How did it come to this? A *virus a thousand times smaller than a dust mote* has humbled and humiliated the planet’s most powerful nation. America has failed to protect its people, leaving them with illness and financial ruin. It has lost its status as a global leader. It has careened between inaction and ineptitude. The breadth and magnitude of its errors are difficult, in the moment, to truly fathom._


Eliminate  “most powerful nation” , replace ” THE WORLD where it says America,  etc, etc, etc. 

 It amazes me how both sides here on TUG are politicizing this.  It is a world pandemic. Unless everyone locks themselves in, never leaving  home, it will spread.  and then how do you get food to people?  Medical care? Etc.? The more people, the more open borders like our states, the more spread.  We are a democracy, you can’t force people to do what they don’t want to, even if it is smart.  Easy to blame nation,  governments, politicians, everyone else.  

Those who complain should offer an alternative solution that works. Oh there isn’t one.


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## TravelTime (Aug 3, 2020)

The article described many of the things we could have done to reduce and/or eliminate the virus had we acted early. This outcome did not have to happen. Instead our government minimized the virus and set a bad example by not wearing masks. The USA is doing much worse than it should be. 4% world population but 25% of covid cases. It is not only the USA that botched its response but there were many things this country did wrong from the beginning that would have changed the outcome. I do not think it is political to complain about the government‘s response to Covid. We already know all of this. I am just venting.


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## Karen G (Aug 3, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> We already know all of this. I am just venting.


14 pages of venting is about enough, I think. 

THE END


----------

