# Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery



## TravelTime (May 1, 2020)

Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery
					

Covid-19 is not going away, a  new report on the coronavirus pandemic says. The report from CIDRAP predicts 18 months to two more years of Covid-19 cases and deaths.




					www.cnn.com


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## Ken555 (May 1, 2020)

Yup. 



> Lipsitch and Osterholm both said they are surprised by the decisions many states are making to lift restrictions aimed at controlling the spread of the virus.
> 
> "I think it's an experiment. It's an experiment that likely will cost lives, especially in places that do it without careful controls to try to figure out when to try to slow things down again," Lipsitch said.
> Plus, he said, some states are choosing to lift restrictions when they have more new infections than they had when they decided to impose the restrictions.
> ...


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## DannyTS (May 1, 2020)

Now the World Health Organization is saying that Sweden may be a model to be followed in the future and we should learn from their experience

*



*


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## Luanne (May 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Now the World Health Organization is saying that Sweden may be a model to be followed in the future and we should learn from their experience
> 
> *
> 
> ...


I'm still confused as to whether Sweden is a good example, or a bad one.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/swede...inInKp8oglchbM5Gdv4S7n4207WrvCvqz_1bIq8FaF88U


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## DannyTS (May 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I'm still confused as to whether Sweden is a good example, or a bad one.
> 
> https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/swede...inInKp8oglchbM5Gdv4S7n4207WrvCvqz_1bIq8FaF88U


Quebec, Canada has very similar numbers despite very draconian measures and despite the fact that, according to Google, the population has obeyed the SIP more than about everyone in North America


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## DannyTS (May 1, 2020)

I would like to add that it seems difficult to make a clear comparison between countries and states, a lot seems to be based on luck rather than on the measures taken. Canada has had a rather uniform approach. Yet, Ontario is doing a lot better than Quebec despite the larger Asian population and the higher number of travelers.


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## MrockStar (May 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I'm still confused as to whether Sweden is a good example, or a bad one.
> 
> https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/swede...inInKp8oglchbM5Gdv4S7n4207WrvCvqz_1bIq8FaF88U


We should have a pretty good idea by the end of this month. We shall see, more to follow.


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## MrockStar (May 1, 2020)

Some of this differences can be attributed to population density per square mile, public transportation Busses (Detroit, New York, New Orleans) and Subways/Trains ( New York, Chicago) and population makeup, minorities, elderlyand  heath risks.


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## PigsDad (May 1, 2020)

Copying Ken's quoted text from his post above:


> Lipsitch and Osterholm both *said they are surprised by the decisions many states are making to lift restrictions* aimed at controlling the spread of the virus.
> 
> "I think it's an experiment. It's an experiment that likely will cost lives, especially in places that do it without careful controls to try to figure out when to try to slow things down again," Lipsitch said.
> Plus, he said, some states are choosing to lift restrictions when they have more new infections than they had when they decided to impose the restrictions.
> ...


It still baffles me as to why people are surprised that states are lifting restrictions.  Think back a couple of months:  what was the main reason for putting in the SIP restrictions in the first place?  It was to "flatten the curve" so that medical facilities would not be overwhelmed, and the states that are lifting some restrictions have now accomplished that.  There has not been any cases in the US where medical service was denied to a CV-19 patient due to facilities being overwhelmed.

Flattening the curve does not change the area under the curve (i.e., the number of people who are exposed to the virus).  It simply lengthens out the curve.  To put it another way, it just changes the date of when one will get exposed.  For those who really don't want any chance of being exposed, then they can certainly lock themselves in their home and close off all contact with the outside world until a vaccine or cure is found.  But for anyone else, it makes no sense to continue strict SIP policies since eventually, we will all be exposed one way or another.  CV-19 is here, and it doesn't magically go away if we SIP forever.  People need to work to pay rent, put food on the table, etc.  We can be smart and take precautions, but restricting people from making a living cannot go on forever.

Kurt


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## stmartinfan (May 1, 2020)

Osterholm is from my state and he's a real expert with lots of history in public health issues.   He has been saying from the beginning that we will be facing the virus likely for years, until a vaccine is found or enough people are exposed to have the transmission stop.  If he's concerned about lifting restrictions it's likely because of the risk still of surging so high in a short time to overwhelm health care  the lack of testing to try to control surges.


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## cman (May 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> There has not been any cases in the US where medical service was denied to a CV-19 patient due to facilities being overwhelmed.



The flaw in your logic is that it omits the fact that SIP "is" the reason that our healthcare system was not overwhelmed. Had we not instituted these practices, we'd be in the same position as Spain and Italy. Don't get me wrong. I'm all for opening things up. I just want to make sure we have the healthcare infrastructure in place ,and do it in a safe and cautious manner. If you think things are bad now, watch what happens if we open up prematurely. If we screw this up, there are no "do-overs".


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## PigsDad (May 1, 2020)

cman said:


> The flaw in your logic is that it omits the fact that SIP "is" the reason that our healthcare system was not overwhelmed. Had we not instituted these practices, we'd be in the same position as Spain and Italy. Don't get me wrong. I'm all for opening things up. I just want to make sure we have the healthcare infrastructure in place and do it in a safe and cautious manner. If you think things are bad now, watch what happens if we open up prematurely.


But the states that are opening up are doing so in small ways; they're not removing all restrictions at once.  Doing it this way allows them to reevaluate if they do start to see a rise in cases and adjust to that.  Denmark started opening schools two weeks ago and their cases are still declining, so there is precedence for relaxing restrictions after the cases have peaked out.

Most of the hospitals and medical facilities were nowhere near being overwhelmed in the states starting to relax the restrictions.  Even the states that delayed and were some of the last to put in restrictions did not have any issues with facilities being overwhelmed, so your logic that SIP was the only reason our healthcare system was not overwhelmed in those states is suspect, to say the least.  At some point, SIP will cost more lives than it will save, due to economic and mental effects -- it is not viable as a long-term "solution".

Kurt


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## WVBaker (May 1, 2020)

cman said:


> I just want to make sure we have the healthcare infrastructure in place ,and do it in a safe and cautious manner.



I doubt we can ever have the healthcare infrastructure in place to meet the need, whatever that may be. Even prior to this virus you would be surprised at the number of emergency rooms and trauma centers, on any given day, that are on by-pass and patients need to be transported to the next available facility, no matter how far away. It would take a great amount of construction to have that needed healthcare infrastructure available.

Also, who is to decide what defines, "a safe and cautious manner"? You have 50 states that can't agree on that now.


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## Luanne (May 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> But the states that are opening up are doing so in small ways; they're not removing all restrictions at once.  Doing it this way allows them to reevaluate if they do start to see a rise in cases and adjust to that.  Denmark started opening schools two weeks ago and their cases are still declining, so there is precedence for relaxing restrictions after the cases have peaked out.
> 
> Most of the hospitals and medical facilities were nowhere near being overwhelmed in the states starting to relax the restrictions.  Even the states that delayed and were some of the last to put in restrictions did not have any issues with facilities being overwhelmed, so your logic that SIP was the only reason our healthcare system was not overwhelmed in those states is suspect, to say the least.  At some point, SIP will cost more lives than it will save, due to economic and mental effects -- it is not viable as a long-term "solution".
> 
> Kurt


I'm assuming by medical facilities not being overwhelmed you mean there were sufficient beds to handle patients?  I'm wondering about the reports of insufficient PPE and ventilators.  I know there was talk of needing to "split" the ventilators. Did that ever come to pass, or was it a "just in case".  Even if there were enough beds the lack of PPE and other things needed to treat people would, to me at least, mean facilities were overwhelmed.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

cman said:


> The flaw in your logic is that it omits the fact that SIP "is" the reason that our healthcare system was not overwhelmed



Not a flaw in his logic at all - that is precisely what he said.  SIP was to reduce stress on our healthcare.  It worked.  Now open things up.  Yes, you can do it in stages. and yes, subject to change if cases/deaths spike so much they could overwhelm hospitals.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I know there was talk of needing to "split" the ventilators. Did that ever come to pass, or was it a "just in case".


Splitting a vent in two has always been taught.  During this crisis, they taught how to use one vent for four.  And I'm not aware of any cases where they even needed to put two on a vent.


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## cbyrne1174 (May 1, 2020)

I always thought the whole point of the lock down was to prevent as many people from dying as possible before the drug trials could finish. Now that the trials are coming to an end, they're probably just going to open things up, keep the rate from being exponential (flatten the curve) and let people get infected until herd immunity is reached. If they can find a drug that they can prescribe BEFORE hospitalization occurs that drastically lowers the hospitalization rate, only those who are already close to dying anyways will die from the infection. 

People need to prepare themselves to be infected. If you are "obese", but not "morbidly obese", you have plenty of time to drop enough pounds safely to land in the "overweight" category and improve your chances to fight it off.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> reports of insufficient PPE



This was an issue in certain areas.  (Millions of masks in storage were found to have rotten elastic that broke.)

The vast % of masks are manufactured in China. When the virus hit there, the Chinese government would not allow them to be shipped as they needed them for domestic facilities.  (Just like we do).   The 30% made here  (mostly by 3M) was just not enough, even with 3M putting backup equipment into service and running shifts 24/7.

No place in the four states around me had any issues with PPE.  They were still conserving though, as they never knew when the next shipment was going to arrive.


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## isisdave (May 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> At some point, SIP will cost more lives than it will save, due to economic and mental effects -.


That's a guess. There have been some economic projections that show the opposite, although I think the inputs and assumpptions to all these models are too speculative to believe.

Flattening the curve doesn't guarantee that the area under it [the number of cases] stays the same. It could be bigger, it could be smaller.

There are other reasons for flattening, besides avoiding overload of the health system. These are largely matters of increased time, including giving more time for researchers to study the disease and its victims, possibly coming up with new or improved treatment modalities that will reduce the risk of death or serious complications; more time to come up with one or more vaccines; more time to graduate or train more health care workers; even more time for mortuaries in NYC to arrange more storage, if you saw the news yesterday. Health care workers not having to work so intensely will probably keep them healthier and less likely to catch the disease themselves.

We don't know how or even if herd immunity will work, because we don't yet have a good understanding of whether a person is immune once recovered or not. We don't know if it depends on how high an antibody level you get, and whether, on a scale of 1-100, you need a 95 or just a 12. We don't know how long any such immunity would last, and whether it depends on the antibody count. We don't know if the virus will mutate, and whether, if it does, any immunity you have will apply to the new version. Extra time will help researchers answer these questions, and consider how to go forward if it turns out badly: that there is little immunity, or it doesn't last long, or the virus mutates into a worse version.

Some old or unhealthy folks will die of other, more ordinary, quicker, gentler, less terrifying problems, many at home with their familes, and not alone in a hospital.

Even if the number of deaths is inevitably the same, there's more time for grandbabies to meet their grandparents; more time to right old wrongs and settle feuds and misunderstanding. I'll bet others are making good use of this extra time.

Herd immunity without a vaccine is not a solution for Covid-19, any more than it is for mumps. There's an explanation here, but generally the summary is that would still be WAY too many people sick and dead.

I too am anxious to get out and resume having fun.  I think those of us who are 70 have at least as much wish not to waste time as those half our age. But just because Solution A is not great, doesn't mean that Solution B has to be better.  Solution C, as yet unimagined, might be. Any safe way forward before an effective vaccine involves much more testing, and a contact tracing plan. We all should be asking our leaders why, five months into this, we're not awash in testing materials, kits, and results. And PPE -- where the hell is it?


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## geekette (May 1, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Some of this differences can be attributed to population density per square mile, public transportation Busses (Detroit, New York, New Orleans) and Subways/Trains ( New York, Chicago) and population makeup, minorities, elderlyand  heath risks.


and industries.


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## MrockStar (May 1, 2020)

geekette said:


> and industries.


True Dat, Heathcare workers are carrying the heaviest load and risking thier heath the most because of viral loads.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

cbyrne1174 said:


> I always thought the whole point of the lock down was to prevent as many people from dying as possible before the drug trials could finish



This is the first time I have ever heard of this.  They said from the beginning, 70% of the population WILL be exposed, and the SIP was just to slow the rate of infection to not overwhelm the hospitals.  The assumption has always been no magic treatment, and no vaccine until two years out at a minimum.

COULD there be a treatment? COULD there be a vaccine in 1 year?  Anythings possible, but if either one happens, it will be a historic first against a virus like this.

Politicians always tout the 'to keep them from dying' mantra to help justify what they were doing.  The medical experts never used it that way.  For them, it was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed to give the medical staff the best odds on saving lives. 

Turns out, even in NY they never were overwhelmed with the need for vents.  Of course, the shortage of medical staff has been literally a 'killer' in some hospitals.  Medical residents who had never before seen a vent, used youtube to try to learn how to operate them.  The stories some of them are telling about how they set them up wrong with no supervision which literally caused the deaths of some patients.  So sad.  And these heroes are having nightmares from guilt.


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## isisdave (May 1, 2020)

That was my point. In the beginning all we had was "try to slow it down while we think a little." Of course there will be new and better treatment. And Oxford has been tinkering with a generic coronavirus vaccine "for decades," so it might take a lot less than 2 years to tweak it to this one. They've said they're about to start manufacturing it, even before end of tests, as they have a high degree of confidence and hope to have 100 million doses ready when it is approved. (This sounds pretty risky to me, but it illustrates that we haven't yet heard every good idea or encouraging bit of news.)

Off topic, but one of the reasons I like TUG so much is that no one shouts over your ideas. We have time to read and consider them before replying.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

isisdave said:


> There are other reasons for flattening, besides avoiding overload of the health system. These are largely matters of increased time, including giving more time for researchers to study the disease and its victims, possibly coming up with new or improved treatment modalities that will reduce the risk of death or serious complications; more time to come up with one or more vaccines; more time to graduate or train more health care workers;



You are SPOT ON!.  These are all great additional reasons to 'flatten the curve'



isisdave said:


> We all should be asking our leaders why, five months into this, we're not awash in testing materials, kits, and results. And PPE -- where the hell is it?



Actually, a little searching about the industries, (and specifically the companies doing this work) and the answers are pretty easy to find. And the answers are generally pretty straight forward.  These companies are working around the clock, but it still takes times.  Just remember, for the past 30+ years the #1 complaint in our country was the cost of healthcare.  So every company out there has been operating as lean as possible.

(Remember, no politician would ever actually say 'they are doing the best they can'.  Only lay blame.)


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

isisdave said:


> They've said they're about to start manufacturing it, even before end of tests, as they have a high degree of confidence and hope to have 100 million doses ready when it is approved. (This sounds pretty risky to me, but it illustrates that we haven't yet heard every good idea or encouraging bit of news.)



There are actually three that I am aware of (probably more) that are already gearing up to manufacture.  But FOLLOW THE MONEY!  You better believe they are counting on a pot of gold if they are successful, and I'm willing to bet even if they fail they will be fully reimbursed.


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## stmartinfan (May 1, 2020)

I thought I recalled Bill Gates planning to have this foundation provide money to build plants for the manufacture of at least 6 vaccines when they go into trials, with the idea that not all will be successful in the trials, but that there will be infrastructure in place to quickly most to manufacturing for those that do work - even if that means some of the factories will never be used.


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## cman (May 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> But the states that are opening up are doing so in small ways; they're not removing all restrictions at once.  Doing it this way allows them to reevaluate if they do start to see a rise in cases and adjust to that.


Some of the states are opening in the responsible manner that you describe. Others are not. Some of them are opening even though they're infection rate is increasing! In order to responsibly release SIP restrictions requires an effective testing and contact tracing plan. Without that, there's no hope of containing an outbreak.



PigsDad said:


> Denmark started opening schools two weeks ago and their cases are still declining, so there is precedence for relaxing restrictions after the cases have peaked out.



Denmark has a population of 5.7 million. I live in the DFW area with a population of 7.6 million. Now think of the other USA metro areas. Think that's an accurate comparison?




PigsDad said:


> Most of the hospitals and medical facilities were nowhere near being overwhelmed in the states starting to relax the restrictions.  Even the states that delayed and were some of the last to put in restrictions did not have any issues with facilities being overwhelmed, so your logic that SIP was the only reason our healthcare system was not overwhelmed in those states is suspect, to say the least.  At some point, SIP will cost more lives than it will save, due to economic and mental effects -- it is not viable as a long-term "solution".



So, let's think this through. If SIP wasn't the reason our healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed, what was? We've got 60K+ dead in two months with well over a million confirmed cases. If not SIP, what prevented our healthcare system from being overwhelmed? Luck?

[/QUOTE]


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## Ken555 (May 1, 2020)

Let's not forget the multiple waves which hit during the 1918 pandemic and the potential for a similar path this year.


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## cman (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Not a flaw in his logic at all - that is precisely what he said.  SIP was to reduce stress on our healthcare.  It worked.  Now open things up.  Yes, you can do it in stages. and yes, subject to change if cases/deaths spike so much they could overwhelm hospitals.



The flaw in "your" logic is in thinking that "it worked", and we can just move on. Remember, there is neither a vaccine, nor treatment for this thing. It's going to be with us for a while. Opening things back up is possible, but it requires things like, adequate testing, and contact tracing. Your suggestion to, "Now open things up", is not the smart move.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

cman said:


> Remember, there is neither a vaccine, nor treatment for this thing



And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.



cman said:


> Your suggestion to, "Now open things up", is not the smart move



Maybe not, time will tell.  

Our state today announced:  All travel restrictions lifted today, malls at 50% starting Monday, churches OK as of the 8th, restaurants and Bars at 50% starting on the 8th.  Movie theaters and pools on the 24th,  and so on.  Essentially everything open July 4th including fairs.  (Social distancing still encouraged)


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## Luanne (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Remind me not to visit your state any time soon.


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## cman (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good luck. Hope all works out for you guys.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Remind me not to visit your state any time soon



No issue - but about ten other states are right with us, and another 15-20 are a week behind.  (Those are the ones I know about.)

(In an effort to be accurate, there are three counties in the state that are delaying things for 7-10 days because their numbers were higher)


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## Luanne (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> No issue - but about ten other states are right with us, and another 15-20 are a week behind.  (Those are the ones I know about.)
> 
> (In an effort to be accurate, there are three counties in the state that are delaying things for 7-10 days because their numbers were higher)


New Mexico is just starting to open up.  Golf courses (golfers only, no restaurant, no retail), gun stores by appointment only, pet grooming and boarding.  So NO restaurants, except carry out, no salons, no 4th of July anything, no movies, no pools.  

Everything for summer, all of the major markets and festivals have already been cancelled.  It will be very quiet here this summer.


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## elaine (May 1, 2020)

it’s hard for those in areas not significantly affected to stay closed. If I was 40 and needed to support a family, I’d feel the same.
but, being almost 60 and having asthma, I’m lowering my risk for the next few months: I’ll drive my car to work vs commuter train, telework more, wear a mask/glove shopping and dr office, no movie theater and probably no restaurants. I’ll cut my own hair for the next few months. I’ll watch church online.
the biggest concern is my mom in a retirementCenter. I had planned to see her every 2-3 months to go over bills, check in her,visit. Don’t know when it’ll be safe for that.
Strangely, golf courses stayed open in VA. I read that people drove down from N.J. to play.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

cman said:


> "Now open things up", is not the smart move.



Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Texas open up their restaurants and retail already today? (With some restrictions, of course).

And New Mexico newspapers say restaurants with restrictions there within two weeks.


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## Luanne (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Texas open up their restaurants and retail already today? (With some restrictions, of course).
> 
> And New Mexico newspapers say restaurants with restrictions there within two weeks.


Which New Mexico newspapers?  Haven't heard anything.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Which New Mexico newspapers?  Haven't heard anything.



Sante Fe New Mexican, I think was quoted. The other I don't remember (I hope that's a real news outlet, and not some fake website)


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## Luanne (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Sante Fe New Mexican, I think was quoted. The other I don't remember (I hope that's a real news outlet, and not some fake website)


Interesting.  That's the paper we get and I  don't remember seeing anything.  They're still talking about additional restaurants that are opening for take out.

I'm trying to find any reference to any statement about restaurants opening up in a few weeks and can't find anything.


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## MrockStar (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Ken555 said:


> Let's not forget the multiple waves which hit during the 1918 pandemic and the potential for a similar path this year.
> 
> View attachment 19960


Would you Please same the same chart for the 1968/1969 Hong Hong Flu Pandemic which I lived through where we didnt SHUT anything down here.


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## MrockStar (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Please tell me which state your in so i can plan my summer vacation there so i can ESCAPE the draconian lock down here in Michigan. Thanks.


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## geoand (May 1, 2020)

I’m surprised over all the expert opinions


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## rapmarks (May 1, 2020)

I heard this report on the news tonight. Being over 70, doesn’t leave me me hopeful


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Please tell me which state your in so i can plan my summer vacation there so i can ESCAPE the draconian lock down here in Michigan. Thanks.



What, you don't agree it's way too dangerous to head upstate to open up your cottage?

Wonder what the Yooper's are saying.


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## MrockStar (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> What, you don't agree it's way too dangerous to head upstate to open up your cottage?
> 
> Wonder what the Yooper's are saying.


Iam going there tonight, of course no stoping and i packed my cooler. Pluse Kyacing is now allowed there so all is good.


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## PigsDad (May 1, 2020)

@isisdave -- thank you for your response.  You raised some great questions and I agree that there are still many unknowns out there.

I just wanted to comment on one thing you mentioned:



isisdave said:


> I too am anxious to get out and resume having fun.


I'm probably overracting, but that wording kind of struck a nerve with me.  I get the feeling that many who think we need to keep the SIP orders in place for an extended time believe that the reason those of us who are in favor of starting to relax those orders is because we want to get back to "having fun".  Even though I am personally in a good position financially and am healthy, "having fun" is not the driving reason I advocate to start loosening the restrictions.  I am _truly concerned_ that so many of our fellow Americans are out of a job and will be facing unsurmountable financial hurdles if the economy does not start opening up soon.  That is why I advocate for reasonable steps to start the economy back up.

Kurt


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Interesting.  That's the paper we get and I  don't remember seeing anything.  They're still talking about additional restaurants that are opening for take out.
> 
> I'm trying to find any reference to any statement about restaurants opening up in a few weeks and can't find anything.



Quick online search at Sante Fe-New Mexican found this:  "Lujan Grisham said that if people continue to stay away from one another, practice safe pandemic hygiene and limit travel outside the home, restaurants, gyms, salons and other services could begin to open at a limited capacity as soon as mid-May "

My guess is that's the quote that was used, but they changed the 'mid-May' to May 15th in the U.S. summary I was reading.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Iam going there tonight, of course no stoping and i packed my cooler. Pluse Kyacing is now allowed there so all is good.



The important thing is, if I owned a cottage in MI, I could go there no problem.  It was just off limits to MICHIGAN owners


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## Luanne (May 1, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Quick online search at Sante Fe-New Mexican found this:  "Lujan Grisham said that if people continue to stay away from one another, practice safe pandemic hygiene and limit travel outside the home, restaurants, gyms, salons and other services could begin to open at a limited capacity as soon as mid-May "
> 
> My guess is that's the quote that was used, but they changed the 'mid-May' to May 15th in the U.S. summary I was reading.


I'll take a look.  The Albuquerque newspaper was talking about how they might start opening but stated there was no date.  That was from an article the end of April.

Found the article.  I guess we'll have to see how we do and whether those additional businesses will open.  I've heard the gym I go to has no plans to open any time soon.


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## PigsDad (May 1, 2020)

cman said:


> Denmark has a population of 5.7 million. I live in the DFW area with a population of 7.6 million. Now think of the other USA metro areas. Think that's an accurate comparison?


There are *29 states* with a *total population* of less than 5.7 million, so _yes_, I do believe that is an appropriate comparison in a conversation about certain states relaxing their SIP orders.  And I would venture to guess that most if not all of those states have a _lower _population density than Denmark.

Kurt


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Even though I am personally in a good position financially and am healthy, "having fun" is not the driving reason I advocate to start loosening the restrictions. I am _truly concerned_ that so many of our fellow Americans are out of a job and will be facing unsurmountable financial hurdles if the economy does not start opening up soon. That is why I advocate for reasonable steps to start the economy back up.



Amen!!   My timeshare stuff may have taken a permanent bath, but so what. I will be dead and gone (no matter the cause) before some of the bills come due for what we are doing to this country.  Our kids and grand kids will pay dearly for this in ways they simply cannot comprehend.


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## Pathways (May 1, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> I am _truly concerned_ that so many of our fellow Americans are out of a job



My parents generation was sent by their leaders into battle knowing over 50% would be killed. For our freedom.  Today our leaders are sending millions into unemployment and taking away our freedom. For what?  My dad (CBI Vet from WWII) must be turning in his grave that we are willingly giving up our freedom.

And please, don't take my attitude as one size fits all, as NY and select other areas absolutely needed to take some drastic actions.  But for* most* of the country, after two weeks it was time to get rolling.


----------



## Cornell (May 2, 2020)

Pathways said:


> My parents generation was sent by their leaders into battle knowing over 50% would be killed. For our freedom.  Today our leaders are sending millions into unemployment and taking away our freedom. For what?  My dad (CBI Vet from WWII) must be turning in his grave that we are willingly giving up our freedom.
> 
> And please, don't take my attitude as one size fits all, as NY and select other areas absolutely needed to take some drastic actions.  But for* most* of the country, after two weeks it was time to get rolling.


Seriously -- AMEN.  If my dad were alive, he would be fit to be tied.


----------



## SteelerGal (May 2, 2020)

IMHO, the working poor shouldn’t have to be the guinea pigs because many States do not want to update their Unemployment Systems.  Yes, if you are furloughed you are struggling, however for others to ignore that the working poor now have to go back to work and be 
burdened w/ the possibility of contracting Covid-19 ia short sighted.(Yes, I have family in several hotspots throughout the US and AA)


----------



## Brett (May 2, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery
> 
> 
> Covid-19 is not going away, a  new report on the coronavirus pandemic says. The report from CIDRAP predicts 18 months to two more years of Covid-19 cases and deaths.
> ...




Two more years !

I'm glad the COVID 19 vaccine is just around the corner and no one has to worry about this


----------



## massachu (May 2, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> @isisdave -- thank you for your response.  You raised some great questions and I agree that there are still many unknowns out there.
> 
> I just wanted to comment on one thing you mentioned:
> 
> ...


Can we really save timesharing in hopes of supporting its services staff? What is the global projection for the timeshare industry? I’m apprehensive.  Another forum contributor remarked that driving to a remote cabin in rural Michigan seemed relatively inviting.  Owning a timeshare today has new hidden expenses. My timeshare is closed indefinitely, projects unestimated expenses, has fired service staff, closed indefinitely, anticipates some unplanned sanitization protocols and equipment when it opens, and will lose supporting revenue from rental of units, all of which projects to higher maintenance fees. If I am typical, I have enough concerns at home about how to get groceries safely in an area I know, and the prospects of taking an airplane trip to a timeshare exchange location with spotty services today is almost as unappealing as a cruise ship getaway.  Charity begins closer to home. I’m grateful to be able to work from home and for the postman who brings my mail through rain and snow and pandemic. I gave my USPS postman a grocery-store gift card. Zoom stock is going up for a reason and Netflix offers virtual escapes.


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## geekette (May 2, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Interesting.  That's the paper we get and I  don't remember seeing anything.  They're still talking about additional restaurants that are opening for take out.
> 
> I'm trying to find any reference to any statement about restaurants opening up in a few weeks and can't find anything.


Listen to your governor, that's the official source.  

My mayor has different restrictions for us, so check on that official also.  It seems that even states that are not opening, have put a plan out.


----------



## Luanne (May 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> Listen to your governor, that's the official source.
> 
> My mayor has different restrictions for us, so check on that official also.  It seems that even states that are not opening, have put a plan out.


What our governor has said is that more businesses "might" open in a few weeks. That depends on what happens now.   I usually listen to her briefings, but missed the last one. Basically that is what the newspaper said. Not that restaurants WILL open, but depending on how things go they MIGHT.


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## Pathways (May 2, 2020)

Luanne said:


> What our governor has said is that more businesses "might" open in a few weeks. That depends on what happens now. I usually listen to her briefings, but missed the last one. Basically that is what the newspaper said. Not that restaurants WILL open, but depending on how things go they MIGHT.



When a politician says 'might', that means 'let's see how many people protest my idea so I can change it if need be.'  And if there is not a lot of blow-back, then 'let's go ahead and do this'.  It might not even have been mentioned during the presser, her staff may have 'leaked' the quote just to get the reaction later.

Even with the 'opening' plan of our state, the governor did not tip his hand until minutes before the news conference. 

Georgia's governor jumped out on his own and took all the heat.   Now everybody else's plan looks tame compared to his.


----------



## TravelTime (May 2, 2020)

I think California may end up with the longest shelter in place order in the country. We started before everyone else in mid March and we are now extended until the end of May. That is about 2.5 months with no change or very little change in the restrictions. Our state has had some protests and some people have found workarounds to keep their businesses open in person (like hairdressers) but, for the most part, I think Californians are complying. The big tech companies in California are going to be very careful and slow about re-opening offices.


----------



## Luanne (May 2, 2020)

Pathways said:


> When a politician says 'might', that means 'let's see how many people protest my idea so I can change it if need be.'  And if there is not a lot of blow-back, then 'let's go ahead and do this'.  It might not even have been mentioned during the presser, her staff may have 'leaked' the quote just to get the reaction later.
> 
> Even with the 'opening' plan of our state, the governor did not tip his hand until minutes before the news conference.
> 
> Georgia's governor jumped out on his own and took all the heat.   Now everybody else's plan looks tame compared to his.


But what you did was take a "might" statement and turn it into this, which was not what was said:

And New Mexico newspapers say restaurants with restrictions there within two weeks.


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## Pathways (May 2, 2020)

I just look at the numerous sites that have national charts comparing the different states.  Seldom do I drill down to find where they got their info.  In this case I did, since I got the feeling from you (someone who is actually there) that your state was a long way from opening.  While we can parse the actual words, I agree that the chart I looked at took some liberties with the statement.  (shocker there!)

It appears there are some regions in NM that are really struggling.  I would guess they will see even more restrictions.  But get ready, with TX and CO reopening my money says NM will not be far behind.  (again, certain areas excepted)

Same here.  While the state is opening we have a couple of counties where things are bad.  One rural county that employs thousands at a pork packing plant has over 1200 cases.  The living arrangements of many of the workers there just does not help slow the spread.  Thankfully, most are young, - only 2 deaths, and very few need hospital care.


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## WVBaker (May 2, 2020)

*New Mexico takes more drastic measures against virus hotspot*

Invoking provisions of the state Riot Control Act, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham ordered residents of Gallup to remain home except for emergencies and blocked roads leading in and out of town to nonessential travel and any vehicles carrying more than two people.  









						New Mexico takes more drastic measures against virus hotspot
					

Invoking provisions of the state Riot Control Act, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham ordered residents of Gallup to remain home except for emergencies.




					www.aol.com
				




If you have AOL you can read the article.

_O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave?  _


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## MrockStar (May 2, 2020)

Remember 1967 Detriot? Sounds familiar.


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## "Roger" (May 2, 2020)

Pathways said:


> ...It appears there are some regions in NM that are really struggling....


I have a friend making gowns and masks for people in the Navaho nation. Their infection rate is higher than NYC.


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## Luanne (May 2, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> *New Mexico takes more drastic measures against virus hotspot*
> 
> Invoking provisions of the state Riot Control Act, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham ordered residents of Gallup to remain home except for emergencies and blocked roads leading in and out of town to nonessential travel and any vehicles carrying more than two people.
> 
> ...


When you read this article please note that it was the former mayor, and current mayor of Gallup that asked, or really begged, the governor to issue the shut down. They have been hit extremely hard.

I was able to read this article even though I don't have an aol account. But if you can't get to it, here is the article in the Santa Fe New Mexican.

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/n...cle_44fe5b78-8bd5-11ea-9238-ab1671f854dc.html


----------



## Luanne (May 2, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> I have a friend making gowns and masks for people in the Navaho nation. Their infection rate is higher than NYC.


I have a friend who is making masks as well. I wondered if it might be the same person, but my friend isn't making gowns.  She is also selling masks and is using that money to buy more supplies. She and her mom have a table covering business and are using the napkins to make the masks.


----------



## isisdave (May 2, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> @isisdave -- thank you for your response.  You raised some great questions and I agree that there are still many unknowns out there.
> 
> I just wanted to comment on one thing you mentioned:
> 
> ...



Oh, I agree with you too Kurt. But I'm retired, and our "normal" life is travel and discovery, not employment, so I was just personalizing my desire. Our son works at  Lowe's and I can't believe he hasn't caught it yet; his spouse is in hospitality and currently on furlough. They were about to buy a house, so we all hope things get back to stability asap.


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (May 2, 2020)

There is a lot of talk about approaches to confronting virus.  Someone earlier is thankful that a vaccine is just around the corner.  I guess I think 12-18 months isn't just around the corner.

Anyway I decided to look at stats from two similarly sized countries with different approaches and see how the numbers compare.

Sweden, whose citizens are only encouraged to distance and Portugal where stay at home orders have been in place.

Starting from February 15 to March 15 Sweden had 1050 cases, Portugal 448 cases.  March 15-April 15 Sweden 11927, Portugal 18841, April 15-April 30, Sweden 21,092, Portugal 24987.

So in the beginning Sweden had a lower growth rate than Portugal, but with the advent of controls in Portugal and few in Sweden the gap has closed dramatically, with Sweden's curve continuing to rise and Portugals flattening.  Since April 15 Portugal's increase in cases is about 6,000 and Sweden's 9,000.  

Additionally Portugal has probably found more cases because they have tested nearly 42,000/million and Sweden about 12,000/million.  BTW Portugal's testing per million is over twice as much as here in the US.

South Korea though looks the best as they closed down everything with under 11,000 cased and 215 deaths, total.


----------



## WVBaker (May 2, 2020)

Our public health officials have long been using fear and calculation. The individuals we elect, write intrusive laws that sit on the books, waiting to be invoked by the next microorganism to catch the public's attention. Those laws include a nearly unlimited power to quarantine people suspected of exposure to infectious diseases and then bill them for the confinement.

Keep in mind though, they are subject to fear also. The fear of being voted out of office by panic-stricken constituents looking for officials to do something. They have the an instinct to exploit a crisis and soothe the fearful by making efforts, even counterproductive ones, to assure the public that everything will be just fine.

We have faced many a crises before and the COVID-19 pandemic panic will also pass, hopefully with a minimum of illness and death. It will however, leave behind a residue of laws, spending, and precedents for future government actions that won't depart in its wake.


----------



## Brett (May 2, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Our public health officials have long been using fear and calculation. The individuals we elect, write intrusive laws that sit on the books, waiting to be invoked by the next microorganism to catch the public's attention. Those laws include a nearly unlimited power to quarantine people suspected of exposure to infectious diseases and then bill them for the confinement.
> 
> Keep in mind though, they are subject to fear also. The fear of being voted out of office by panic-stricken constituents looking for officials to do something. They have the an instinct to exploit a crisis and soothe the fearful by making efforts, even counterproductive ones, to assure the public that everything will be just fine.
> 
> We have faced many a crises before and the COVID-19 pandemic panic will also pass, hopefully with a minimum of illness and death. It will however, leave behind a residue of laws, spending, and precedents for future government actions that won't depart in its wake.



I'm not so sure health officials are using "fear" -  most seem to be just stating the medical facts.
but "panic-stricken" constituents may vote politicians that "exploit a crisis" out of office ! 
and it's certainly true that the pandemic is leaving a residue of government spending


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## Luanne (May 2, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Seriously -- AMEN.  If my dad were alive, he would be fit to be tied.


I think if my father, who fought in WWII was alive today he'd want his family safe and protected.

We all have our own bias on this.


----------



## cman (May 2, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Texas open up their restaurants and retail already today? (With some restrictions, of course).
> 
> And New Mexico newspapers say restaurants with restrictions there within two weeks.


You are correct. Texas did ease some restrictions this past Friday. But there are so many caveats, that you wouldn't notice this from a full lock-down. Restaurants can open at 50% capacity, but few can make a profit at that level so most have remained closed. Barber shop, salons and gyms are still closed. Retail stores are only allowed to provide curbside service, but they lack customers. So, not much has changed in Texas. 

The good news is that our governor, is listening to the experts, realizes what needs to be in place before moving forward with reopening, and is taking active steps to ensure everything is in place before we open things up. Testing capacity and contact tracing ability are the things we need before we open the floodgates. As of now, our testing capacity is one of the worst in the nation, but we're working on improving it.


----------



## Cornell (May 2, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I think if my father, who fought in WWII was alive today he'd want his family safe and protected.
> 
> We all have our own bias on this.


Yes we do and that’s what makes the world interesting


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## cman (May 2, 2020)

Pathways said:


> My parents generation was sent by their leaders into battle knowing over 50% would be killed. For our freedom.



Dude, that's a little over dramatic. Nobody's asking us to send our children into battle. They're just asking that we shelter in place, and only travel when it's essential. Our parents would not be whining about this the way that some of you are. Given the choice between going to war, and sheltering in place, it would be an easy decision for them.

This thing is not close to being over. I'd advise you to man up, prepare for this to last a while, and get used to your new reality.


----------



## Pathways (May 2, 2020)

cman said:


> This thing is not close to being over. I'd advise you to man up, prepare for this to last a while, and get used to your new reality



Agree 100%.  Based on the medical 'experts', this virus will never go away.  I won't put it quite as bluntly as you, but yes, you can stay home if you want for the next two plus years, or just get used to the new reality.  Social distancing in public is here to stay, masks, fewer tables in restaurants, and so on.

I will never second guess those who choose to stay sheltered, I think each person needs to follow what they feel is best for them.  That's what freedom is all about.


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## Pathways (May 2, 2020)

cman said:


> Nobody's asking us to send our children into battle



Actually, I stole some of my comments directly from a group of 85+ yo men talking at a local senior facility.  They are not allowed to leave their rooms, but still have chat available.  They are very vocal with the comparisons. (A number of covid deaths there has not seemed to change their opinion)


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## cman (May 3, 2020)

Pathways said:


> I will never second guess those who choose to stay sheltered, I think each person needs to follow what they feel is best for them. That's what freedom is all about.



It's not about doing, "what's best for them", it's about doing what's best for our country. SIP is as much about the protection of others as it about self preservation. Expand your thinking and try taking a more altruistic view.


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## MrockStar (May 3, 2020)

better plus up the bread   and soup lines it's going to be a long two years.


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## CO skier (May 3, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> better plus up the bread   and soup lines it's going to be a long two years.


What do you mean?  Have you not heard?  Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve have re-defined economics.  Just drop 3 trillion dollars from helicopters, then more trillions as needed.

There will be no Great Depression II, there will be no Great Recession II.

Yeah, right.  We will see.  People! look around you.  The economy is at a standstill for 8 weeks with little relief in sight.  "Re-openings" have little to offer for months.

How can this not result in mega-soup-lines?

Can we start talking about flattening the negative economic curve that is a greater threat to American society than what is proving to be just another viral curve?


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## Sandi Bo (May 3, 2020)

I sure do appreciate the opinions I can read here on TUG, and the ability for "all sides" to contribute. 

My thoughts are we need to figure out how to live with this (while at the time we are social distancing). Until we have a vaccine, and it's going to be a while, things cannot go back to normal (unless we are willing to sacrifice many lives). I plan to continue to be extremely cautious, even though Nebraska is opening some things up on May 4th. I won't be at the beauty parlor or eating out or shopping for anything more than I have to. We may relax our social distancing slightly, but we will limit who we socialize with (other immediate family that we know are also being careful).

I am frustrated that here we are, months into this and we still have PPE shortages, crappy testing availability, we're still trying to figure out exactly how this virus spreads (is it air borne or droplet, how long does it live), and inconsistent enforcement of practices to reduce the spread.

I am still sewing masks for the local hospital, yet read in the paper we have ample supply. The hospitals preserve the PPE, at least partially because the CDC has lowered the standards - our healthcare providers are wearing the same masks, all day, for several days. Gowns used to be changed between patient rooms, now are worn until they have to be changed. Hospital beds are available because we've cancelled all elective surgery (that's any non-emergency surgery, including for cancer, just sounds nicer to say elective). 

I am concerned about the economic repercussions of all this, money doesn't come out of thin air. Worried about those without jobs and what the next months/year or two will bring. But I don't think this is 'just another viral curve'. Talk to health care professionals, they are seeing first hand how awful this virus is. We can't just pretend it's not there, that's incredibly unfair to the health care professionals who will have to continue to risk their lives until things are under control.


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## MrockStar (May 3, 2020)

cman said:


> Dude, that's a little over dramatic. Nobody's asking us to send our children into battle. They're just asking that we shelter in place, and only travel when it's essential. Our parents would not be whining about this the way that some of you are. Given the choice between going to war, and sheltering in place, it would be an easy decision for them.
> 
> This thing is not close to being over. I'd advise you to man up, prepare for this to last a while, and get used to your new reality.


That's the same thing they said to the small farmers when the Communists took control of their farms and "Get used to your new reality" Only in Russian of course. :-\


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## WVBaker (May 3, 2020)

cman said:


> It's not about doing, "what's best for them", it's about doing what's best for our country. SIP is as much about the protection of others as it about self preservation. Expand your thinking and try taking a more altruistic view.



Perhaps those clamoring for shelter in place restrictions should lock themselves in their own homes and stop trying to impose more government control over what everyone else is doing. Many in our workforce don't have the luxury of clocking in on their laptops at home. I find myself not fearing the coronavirus, but fearing the freedoms we have lost and will continue to lose, in determining how to handle the virus. Both economic freedoms, as well as, civil liberties. For those who are not willing to face this attacker, let them shelter in place. But for the less fearful who don't wish to cower in their homes, open up the country, which should have never been shut down.

Many people are losing their jobs and their health insurance, and many are not able to pay the rent. And all of this is being done because "medical experts" say we will be better off if we do it. Many of us recall "The Reagan Revolution". It argued that the government gets in the way of the "magic of the free market," and that when we allow those with capital to do what they want, we all live better. Many may remember the term "nanny state" to describe government as a force that thinks it knows better than we do about how we should live, and it argues that we're better off without its interventions. This view of freedom insists that we are free from social forces that limit our human development.

With these shelter-in-place orders, the government deprives us of our freedom to go out, socialize, and work as we want, with the alleged aim of reducing the spread of the virus, and thereby possibly increasing the likelihood we each will have the freedom to continue living. Call it selfish if you wish, but understand this. I will never "expand" my thinking to agree with what you see as right. As President Roosevelt once said, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”


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## Cornell (May 3, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Perhaps those clamoring for shelter in place restrictions should lock themselves in their own homes and stop trying to impose more government control over what everyone else is doing. Many in our workforce don't have the luxury of clocking in on their laptops at home. I find myself not fearing the coronavirus, but fearing the freedoms we have lost and will continue to lose, in determining how to handle the virus. Both economic freedoms, as well as, civil liberties. For those who are not willing to face this attacker, let them shelter in place. But for the less fearful who don't wish to cower in their homes, open up the country, which should have never been shut down.
> 
> Many people are losing their jobs and their health insurance, and many are not able to pay the rent. And all of this is being done because "medical experts" say we will be better off if we do it.  [Some of the more political comment redacted]
> 
> ...


I could not agree with you more.  [Comment about moderation redacted]


----------



## Cornell (May 3, 2020)

@WVBaker  Building on this a bit...

Where I live, I belong to several suburban Facebook groups. I have watched the discussions morph , as the weeks have gone on along these lines:

People angry that there were groups playing in the park, so call the police on them
People angry that kids using playground equipment
People upset that they saw people going to the store to purchase only a handful of items (clearly a" non-essential trip")
Anger at seeing children at the grocery store
Neighbors upset b/c they saw someone next door who didn't live at that household
Anger at those who aren't wearing masks
Now it's anger at grocery store shoppers that aren't following the arrows in the correct up/down configuration in the store.

In my observation, the people not following "all fo the rules" are the minority of the population.  The vast majority are doing the best they can , with the realities of their own personal lives, with this entire thing.  

Getting angry / upset at this minority seems like a waste of energy and emotion -- as there will always be some who aren't going to comply.  Let it go.


----------



## WVBaker (May 3, 2020)

Brett said:


> Lol !!
> many of the people who say they are deprived of "freedom" wear a certain hat


Well, well, well, Bret, always a pleasure. Another thoroughly thought out, informative post I see. I'm sure the "report" button is calling out to you.


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## Cornell (May 3, 2020)

I'm going to share some personal things about my life with TUG.  I do this b/c it offers up a different perspective on some of the fear & anxiety that people are suffering from right now, including me. I offer this up not to garner sympathy or pity, but to  "Expand your thinking and try taking a more altruistic view."

During the '08  recession by husband at the time lost his job.  My daughter was young   (preschool).  That began a nightmare, downward spiral at our house.  My husband was at home all of the time.  Became a raging , out-of-control, abusive addict.  I lived the type of life where I had a duffel bag packed & ready to go (hidden under my bed b/c I had to hide from my ex) for me and my daughter -- in case we needed to flee in the middle of the night.  I also had a key to my neighbor's house so we had somewhere safe to go if needed.  I  had my daughter's passport hidden from my ex - that's how scary it was.

I share this because back then , I did my best to shield my daughter (and me) by leaving the house.  I tried to preserve some level of normalcy and safety by going to parks, museums, the library, the pool, going out on errands etc.  I'm now really bothered now with  current situation b/c people living like this have nowhere to escape to.  I cannot imagine how I would have survived if conditions were like that for me in '08 era.  I barely survived as it was.

Fast forward, I got an order of protection.  I am divorced.  I have sole custody of my daughter.  Zero child support.  And I've had no help from family (eg grandparents, siblings) to help with caring for my daughter over these years while I have worked full time and tried to rebuild my life.

So far, I've been working my usual job.  But sure enough on Friday layoffs were announced.  I'm safe for now.  But it's starting.  The anxiety of losing my job (as the sole provider) is off-the-charts.

So please have altruistic views on this topic that go beyond disease prevention.  There is a lot more at play here.


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## Brett (May 3, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Well, well, well, Bret, always a pleasure. Another thoroughly thought out, informative post I see. I'm sure the "report" button is calling out to you.



as to you too my sartorial friend


----------



## Panina (May 3, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I'm going to share some personal things about my life with TUG.  I do this b/c it offers up a different perspective on some of the fear & anxiety that people are suffering from right now, including me. I offer this up not to garner sympathy or pity, but to  "Expand your thinking and try taking a more altruistic view."
> 
> During the '08  recession by husband at the time lost his job.  My daughter was young   (preschool).  That began a nightmare, downward spiral at our house.  My husband was at home all of the time.  Became a raging , out-of-control, abusive addict.  I lived the type of life where I had a duffel bag packed & ready to go (hidden under my bed b/c I had to hide from my ex) for me and my daughter -- in case we needed to flee in the middle of the night.  I also had a key to my neighbor's house so we had somewhere safe to go if needed.  I  had my daughter's passport hidden from my ex - that's how scary it was.
> 
> ...



Thank you for sharing.  I know how hard it is to open up like you just did.  Your openness might do more good then you realize giving someone else hope that things can change,

Our life experiences definitely have an impact on how we deal with the situation we are in now.  The path you took to safety and building a new life shows you are a survivor and look at the whole picture.  

I definitely think it is time to get back to work, even though I know it could cause more deaths, as there needs to be a balance as life exists for the time being.

I do believe we can go back to work and have more outdoor activities and a better lifestyle then locking ourselves in our homes and still limit the spread by doing simple things, such as wearing masks, respecting each other’s space and having good hygiene.  

The problem I see now is how lax many are following these simple precautions putting living life better in jeopardy for the many.   The few can make it harder for the rest of us later on.


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## Cornell (May 3, 2020)

Panina said:


> Thank you for sharing.  I know how hard it is to open up like you just did.  Your openness might do more good then you realize giving someone else hope that things can change,
> 
> Our life experiences definitely have an impact on how we deal with the situation we are in now.  The path you took to safety and building a new life shows you are a survivor and look at the whole picture.
> 
> ...


Panina - thank you.  I hope I recall this correctly, but I believe you are a widow.  My dear sister became a widow at a young age very suddenly.  I see her very concerned about masks, precautions, etc.  And I know she has fear / concerns about how someone's world can be up-ended w/medical issues or worse, loss of life w/no warning.  It's really hard for everyone.  When I find myself bristling at things, I try (not always successfully!) to understand the thought processes and life experiences that we bring into this.  It's a continual , daily process that I find I need to remind myself of every day.


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## pedro47 (May 3, 2020)

I deleted my post because some of the above posts touch my heart.
Because I experienced the pain and suffering first hands with many close friends.


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## Big Matt (May 3, 2020)

I find it interesting that experts are everywhere.  The problem is that they are essentially weather reporters.  They can prognosticate and don't get penalized when their forecasts are incorrect.  They are guessing with informed information.  There is no predictive model that forecasts new things very well.  That's where we are.  My biggest pet peeve is that everything is all or nothing.  There's no in between.  The problem is that most of it is "in between".  Politically, I'm a Libertarian so I'm happy that the states are in charge of the decisions for the most part.  Now it is starting to flow down to the municipalities.  What makes sense in New York City may not be a fit for small town USA.


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## Panina (May 3, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Panina - thank you.  I hope I recall this correctly, but I believe you are a widow.  My dear sister became a widow at a young age very suddenly.  I see her very concerned about masks, precautions, etc.  And I know she has fear / concerns about how someone's world can be up-ended w/medical issues or worse, loss of life w/no warning.  It's really hard for everyone.  When I find myself bristling at things, I try (not always successfully!) to understand the thought processes and life experiences that we bring into this.  It's a continual , daily process that I find I need to remind myself of every day.


Yes I lost my husband young.  It shaped me tremendously with my outlook. It also made me stronger and independent.  

What really has a big impact on my views with this virus are the stories I heard from my dad about their survival during WWII and how he perceived life afterwards.  He was very selective and heroic in the path he took.  He saw the big picture.  He always said it is easier to find solutions if you open your eyes and see it from every angle.  To me that is not all or nothing, it is a collective gathering of facts and finding a compromise in solutions.


----------



## Cornell (May 3, 2020)

@Panina My sister , too, is strong & independent.  She has helped me though my own struggles greatly.  In fact I'm meeting up with her soon halfway between our homes.  To take a walk & enjoy the sun.


----------



## Pathways (May 3, 2020)

Sandi Bo said:


> Talk to health care professionals, they are seeing first hand how awful this virus is. We can't just pretend it's not there, that's incredibly unfair to the health care professionals who will have to continue to risk their lives until things are under control.



My DW and I both work in healthcare.  She is the one who has experienced the passing of people close to her. (and staff infected)  We are both 'at-risk' due to our age, and myself b/c of a previous health issue.  Most of our friends and a few relatives work in/around healthcare.  None of us has missed a day of work (in fact she usually works a couple of hours even on her 'day off') or a paycheck, knock on wood.

I have two friends who left their positions b/c they were too concerned about the exposure and taking it home.  I just got back the results of my second test. (still neg.)

But we all see the pain of those unemployed who will lose their transportation and their home/apartment as soon as the moratorium on evictions is over.
The elderly my wife works with talk about the great depression b/c they or their parents lived it. They are scared for their children and grandchildren economically more than they are of the virus.

Despite all of the above, virtually everyone I know is vocal against the shutdown.  This is a huge country.  Certain areas MUST respond with action like we have taken.  But in other areas it is way past time.  Most of us agreed with the first two weeks.  But as we learn more about how this virus works, we adjust and move on.  If the death rate was 15 or 20% of the population, we would take a different tact.



Sandi Bo said:


> I plan to continue to be extremely cautious, even though Nebraska is opening some things up on May 4th. I won't be at the beauty parlor or eating out or shopping for anything more than I have to. We may relax our social distancing slightly, but we will limit who we socialize with (other immediate family that we know are also being careful).



Even though the consensus here in flyover country is we need to move on, I have yet to hear anyone who wasn't respectful and supportive to those who choose to shelter. It's a personal decision that should be driven by our own research, knowledge, and circumstances.  (Or at least it should be)


----------



## WVBaker (May 3, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I'm going to share some personal things about my life with TUG.  I do this b/c it offers up a different perspective on some of the fear & anxiety that people are suffering from right now, including me. I offer this up not to garner sympathy or pity, but to  "Expand your thinking and try taking a more altruistic view."
> 
> During the '08  recession by husband at the time lost his job.  My daughter was young   (preschool).  That began a nightmare, downward spiral at our house.  My husband was at home all of the time.  Became a raging , out-of-control, abusive addict.  I lived the type of life where I had a duffel bag packed & ready to go (hidden under my bed b/c I had to hide from my ex) for me and my daughter -- in case we needed to flee in the middle of the night.  I also had a key to my neighbor's house so we had somewhere safe to go if needed.  I  had my daughter's passport hidden from my ex - that's how scary it was.
> 
> ...



Words of advice I was once given. Divorce isn't such a tragedy. A tragedy is staying in an unhappy marriage and teaching your children the wrong things about love.

The ever enduring Fred Rogers once wrote, _"For a couple with young children, divorce seldom comes as a "solution" to stress, only as a way to end one form of pain and accept another." _


----------



## rickandcindy23 (May 3, 2020)

Pathways said:


> My parents generation was sent by their leaders into battle knowing over 50% would be killed. For our freedom.  Today our leaders are sending millions into unemployment and taking away our freedom. For what?  My dad (CBI Vet from WWII) must be turning in his grave that we are willingly giving up our freedom.
> 
> And please, don't take my attitude as one size fits all, as NY and select other areas absolutely needed to take some drastic actions.  But for* most* of the country, after two weeks it was time to get rolling.


I agree.  My dad and his brothers and one brother-in-law all fought in WWII, and he went willingly.  All 7 of them volunteered.  My maternal grandpa fought in WWI and then WWII.  

Those two generations would not believe what is going on today.

People are being arrested for not wearing masks in some places. People are being arrested for being on the beach, sitting on the sand, isolated from others. Much of the country is out of work.

I don't care about my vacations as much as I care that we get our country back before this supposed pandemic.

We visited with our granddaughter yesterday for her birthday, and we had a nice dinner together.  We kept the group at 9, according to the state's restrictions, but we were hugging and loving our grankids, which we haven't been able to do. 

Anyway, our daughter-in-law has friend who is a nurse, and she is working at Swedish Hospital here near us, and she is in the ER.  The only patients that they have for Covid-19 are elderly or morbidly obese.   She has not seen a young person of healthy weight in her ER.


----------



## MrockStar (May 3, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I'm going to share some personal things about my life with TUG.  I do this b/c it offers up a different perspective on some of the fear & anxiety that people are suffering from right now, including me. I offer this up not to garner sympathy or pity, but to  "Expand your thinking and try taking a more altruistic view."
> 
> During the '08  recession by husband at the time lost his job.  My daughter was young   (preschool).  That began a nightmare, downward spiral at our house.  My husband was at home all of the time.  Became a raging , out-of-control, abusive addict.  I lived the type of life where I had a duffel bag packed & ready to go (hidden under my bed b/c I had to hide from my ex) for me and my daughter -- in case we needed to flee in the middle of the night.  I also had a key to my neighbor's house so we had somewhere safe to go if needed.  I  had my daughter's passport hidden from my ex - that's how scary it was.
> 
> ...


My, thoughts and prayers go out to you and your daughter. What a positive any strong  example you are setting for her.


----------



## TravelTime (May 3, 2020)

Safety Advice for Reopening: How to Reduce Your Risks as Coronavirus Lockdowns Ease
As businesses reopen, we asked public-health experts for guidance on venturing out









						Safety Advice for Reopening: How to Reduce Your Risks as Coronavirus Lockdowns Ease — The Wall Street Journal
					

As businesses reopen, we asked public-health experts for guidance on venturing out.




					apple.news


----------



## MrockStar (May 3, 2020)

Pathways said:


> My DW and I both work in healthcare.  She is the one who has experienced the passing of people close to her. (and staff infected)  We are both 'at-risk' due to our age, and myself b/c of a previous health issue.  Most of our friends and a few relatives work in/around healthcare.  None of us has missed a day of work (in fact she usually works a couple of hours even on her 'day off') or a paycheck, knock on wood.
> 
> I have two friends who left their positions b/c they were too concerned about the exposure and taking it home.  I just got back the results of my second test. (still neg.)
> 
> ...


My great grand parents and grandmother and her 5 sisters all lived through the great depression It shaped thier whole lives in a profound and positive way. I learned alot from them and try to live my lifestyle that reflects that and carry it out with my family and friends.


----------



## davidvel (May 3, 2020)

It's much easier for someone who is retired, with no need to go out to earn a living and support their family (feed them, have a roof over their head) to tell others to stay home and shut down the world.  All while ignoring that there are so many things that cause as many deaths or more every year that we don't shut down the world for.


----------



## Luanne (May 3, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It's much easier for someone who is retired, with no need to go out to earn a living and support their family (feed them, have a roof over their head) to tell others to stay home and shut down the world.  All while ignoring that there are so many things that cause as many deaths or more every year that we don't shut down the world for.


It's probably also "easier" for those on the front line, the health care workers, those who are working face to face as essential workers to tell others to stay home and shut down.


----------



## DannyTS (May 3, 2020)

Luanne said:


> It's probably also "easier" for those on the front line, the health care workers, those who are working face to face as essential workers to tell others to stay home and shut down.


The health care workers have a very diverse opinion about this because they know the economy cannot be shut down forever and still have a health care system that functions. 
Other essential workers are asking why they have to risk their health every day and put their families in danger while others claim they cannot go back to work until everything is "100% safe" and still collect a paycheck for staying home (not referring to the retired people of course)


----------



## WVBaker (May 3, 2020)

[political]


----------



## Brett (May 3, 2020)

[political]


----------



## WVBaker (May 3, 2020)

[quote of deleted post]


----------



## DannyTS (May 3, 2020)

A lot of states will have to issue bonds or lay off hundreds of thousands of people to get by.

*California Governor: Expect Budget Gap in ‘Tens of Billions’*






__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Brett (May 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> A lot of states will have to issue bonds or lay off hundreds of thousands of people to get by.
> *California Governor: Expect Budget Gap in ‘Tens of Billions’*
> 
> 
> ...



yes, for sure ----  there's going to be plenty of "*budget      .       .gaps*" for many years   -  *federal *and state


----------



## TravelTime (May 3, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> A lot of states will have to issue bonds or lay off hundreds of thousands of people to get by.
> 
> *California Governor: Expect Budget Gap in ‘Tens of Billions’*
> 
> ...



Or get rid of the generous California pensions.


----------



## Brett (May 3, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Or get rid of the generous California pensions.



That would certainly help

But then those (lost) pension holders would want generous apple stock options !


----------



## TravelTime (May 3, 2020)

In the end, one way or another, everyone will be paying with their pocketbooks for the shutdowns. Not saying the shutdowns should not happen but I do not want to hear whining later when we need to cut back.


----------



## Panina (May 3, 2020)

davidvel said:


> It's much easier for someone who is retired, with no need to go out to earn a living and support their family (feed them, have a roof over their head) to tell others to stay home and shut down the world.  All while ignoring that there are so many things that cause as many deaths or more every year that we don't shut down the world for.





Luanne said:


> It's probably also "easier" for those on the front line, the health care workers, those who are working face to face as essential workers to tell others to stay home and shut down.


This is not easy for anyone.  Each of us has a part to act responsibly and unselfishly imo.  It doesn’t have to be all or nothing.  There needs to be a balance. Just because things open doesn’t mean the risk is lower.  It means we want to move the economy in the safest way possible as the risk continues.  

So why is it a problem for many that don’t want to do their part and wear a mask?  keep their distance?  The more I read the more I am convinced it helps.


----------



## Brett (May 3, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> In the end, one way or another, everyone will be paying with their pocketbooks for the shutdowns. Not saying the shutdowns should not happen but I do not want to hear whining later when we need to cut back.



yes, everyone will be paying with their pocketbooks now and in the future
There will probably be some whining ....


----------



## Cornell (May 3, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Words of advice I was once given. Divorce isn't such a tragedy. A tragedy is staying in an unhappy marriage and teaching your children the wrong things about love.
> 
> The ever enduring Fred Rogers once wrote, _"For a couple with young children, divorce seldom comes as a "solution" to stress, only as a way to end one form of pain and accept another." _


Thank you for your kind & thoughtful words.  My daughter & I have a very special relationship b/c we have been through so, so , so much together.  That's the beauty in all of this.  Our life is very peaceful.  The chaotic & scary times are now starting to feel like an old memory.


----------



## Monykalyn (May 3, 2020)

As with any new strain of virus pandemics don't go away quietly. The estimated deaths from the first year of H1N1 ended up being estimated much higher. I guess because it was "just" the flu people don't think of it as deadly. AND that one targeted younger people -my oldest-at the time immunocompromised-got it. She is fine-but there were no calls to shut down the country... CV19 appears to be easier to transmit/spread-but it is still too early to calculate actual mortality rate as we are only capturing a fraction of the cases. Heck CDC even upped their death tally of the bad flu season a couple years ago to over 80K-and the bulk of flu season is 3-4 months, and that is WITH a vaccine and treatments. Over the course of a couple years it won't be surprising to see numbers (cases/fatalities) go up. What will be interesting is when good serology tests come online (and there are a few with high specificity and accuracy) just how far this has spread. 



Luanne said:


> lack of PPE and other things needed to treat people would, to me at least, mean facilities were overwhelmed.


 Absolutely! PPE is/was a huge concern. And this really needs to be addressed. 


isisdave said:


> We all should be asking our leaders why, five months into this, we're not awash in testing materials, kits, and results. And PPE -- where the hell is it?


 THis this this this!! Protest by writing/calling/tweeting/whatever you want to do asking this question over and over and over. Do not accept vague answers. Hound your local news to do the same. 


Pathways said:


> Actually, I stole some of my comments directly from a group of 85+ yo men talking at a local senior facility.  They are not allowed to leave their rooms, but still have chat available.  They are very vocal with the comparisons. (A number of covid deaths there has not seemed to change their opinion)


 yeah no one stopped to ask them-as we locked them away and took away all their daily pleasures (communal meals, activities, outings) if they wanted this, especially if it is going to last months and months (a possibility if states are slow to move through the phases).


Cornell said:


> So far, I've been working my usual job. But sure enough on Friday layoffs were announced. I'm safe for now. But it's starting. The anxiety of losing my job (as the sole provider) is off-the-charts.


 I can't imagine this stress-but you are clearly a survivor. Hopefully the job stays in place.


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## TravelTime (May 3, 2020)

When people start whining, we can just say at least you are alive.


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## Monykalyn (May 3, 2020)

Panina said:


> This is not easy for anyone. Each of us has a part to act responsibly and unselfishly imo. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing. There needs to be a balance. Just because things open doesn’t mean the risk is lower. It means we want to move the economy in the safest way possible as the risk continues.
> 
> So why is it a problem for many that don’t want to do their part and wear a mask? keep their distance? The more I read the more I am convinced it helps.


Just a counterpoint here-there really isn't evidence for the cloth home made masks to stop anything at all...and limited on surgical/medical grade masks.








						COMMENTARY: Masks-for-all for COVID-19 not based on sound data
					

The evidence does not conclusively favor using masks, whether homemade or surgical, to protect against the disease.




					www.cidrap.umn.edu
				











						Advice on the use of masks in the community, during home care and in healthcare settings in the context of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
					

Interim guidance




					www.who.int


----------



## Panina (May 3, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Just a counterpoint here-there really isn't evidence for the cloth home made masks to stop anything at all...and limited on surgical/medical grade masks.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If someone coughs or sneezes it has to stop some of the transmission. Some protection is better then none.  It is a shame everyone that wants one can’t get a 95.  It is sad we have to wear inferior products.


----------



## Cornell (May 3, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Just a counterpoint here-there really isn't evidence for the cloth home made masks to stop anything at all...and limited on surgical/medical grade masks.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is really interesting. And confusing. So much conflicting advice.

Given that it’s not definitive, why do you think “mask laws” are being put in place?


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## TravelTime (May 3, 2020)

Cornell said:


> This is really interesting. And confusing. So much conflicting advice.
> 
> Given that it’s not definitive, why do you think “mask laws” are being put in place?



I think the experts and medical doctors feel helpless about what to do so they are recommending everything they can think of, regardless of sound evidence that it works. It is like when grandma used to tell me to gargle with lemon juice or eat chicken soup.


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## Panina (May 3, 2020)

Cornell said:


> This is really interesting. And confusing. So much conflicting advice.
> 
> Given that it’s not definitive, why do you think “mask laws” are being put in place?


For every article that say nothing definite you will find others that believe the opposite.

Because something is not definite should we assume it doesn’t help?

Your commuting on a bus .  The person next to you has a strong sneeze, you feel wetness hit you.  Having the mask on, the sneeze of that person would probably not reach you.  You having a mask on, would it give you some protection?  What if later on we find out definitely  that the mask would have decreased transmission.  Do we have more more to gain if we wear the mask or do we have more to lose if we don’t?  With so much unknown, the best educated guesses need to be made.


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## Panina (May 3, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I think the experts and medical doctors feel helpless about what to do so they are recommending everything they can think of, regardless of sound evidence that it works. It is like when grandma used to tell me to gargle with lemon juice or eat chicken soup.


And now there are studies that show chicken soup helps.


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## DannyTS (May 3, 2020)

Bill Maher interviewes New York Times columnist and MSNBC contributor Bret Stephens






(I though I posted this earlier but it seems I did not)


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## Ken555 (May 3, 2020)

As a reminder...

We still don’t have enough PPE.

There are concerns we won’t have enough meds.

We are still in the first wave, yet I keep hearing people talk about the next wave.

In most regions of the US we are doing well and have a Rt of less than 1.0. However, these states have a Rt of >1: Iowa, New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Dakota, Kansas, Minnesota, and Nebraska (see https://rt.live for current info). Of course, the concern about opening up is to do it in a manner which keeps the Rt <1 and as it increases then SIP orders will need to be given yet again. We are entering the dance part of the hammer and dance phase of the pandemic.

We should also keep in mind that African Americans and Native Americans have been disproportionately impacted by C19. For example, in Chicago 32% of the infected are African American yet 67% of the dead in the city are black. As we consider opening up, we should be aware that certain segments of our country are adversely impacted much more so than others.

I don’t know anyone talking about waiting until this is 100% contained before opening up, so not sure why this thread is referencing that as a supposed standard. Most Governors, if not all, have published their requirements for opening up. Whether you agree with them or not is a different matter altogether.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ken555 (May 3, 2020)

Panina said:


> And now there are studies that show chicken soup helps.



Chicken soup *always* helps. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (May 3, 2020)

I have read that intelligence reports say that one of the reasons why China did not tell the world the truth about the virus was because they wanted to stock up on PPEs before everyone else.


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## rapmarks (May 3, 2020)

I have made plane reservations to fly north on May 23.  I vacillate , should I stay or should I go.  I see my husband deteriorating with no socialization.  Up north we can play a few holes of golf, on our own cart.  Our course here is closed for renovations.  We can see three of our grandsons.  My daughter is having a rough time working from home with three youngsters And no help.  
It is probably better not to fly north and come back in the fall. But,   I believe it will be our last trip north,  my husband won’t be traveling much anymore.  it is our fiftieth anniversary this summer.  No thought now of getting the family together.  I can handle shelter in place.  It has relieved a lot of caregiver stress.  Just not sure what I should do.  One thing I know, if a hurricane came through while we were here, I would have a very difficult time evacuating.


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## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> In most regions of the US we are doing well and have a Rt of less than 1.0. However, these states have a Rt of >1: Iowa, New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Dakota, Kansas, Minnesota, and Nebraska (see https://rt.live for current info). Of course, the concern about opening up is to do it in a manner which keeps the Rt <1 and as it increases then SIP orders will need to be given yet again. We are entering the dance part of the hammer and dance phase of the pandemic.



Thank you for posting this. What is interesting is that the SIP did not change the slope of the decrease of Rt. It had started well before the shelter order. Hover over all the graphs in your link to see what I mean.









						Rt COVID-19
					

Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.



					rt.live


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## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

In some cases, the large decrease took place before the SIP and it plateaued after that. It really seems it did not accomplish anything for Florida for example


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## TravelTime (May 4, 2020)

In Florida, as I understand, people started to shelter in place at least 2 weeks before the state mandate. I just read an article about Florida in the Wall Street Journal. The article says the going out behavior of Floridians decreased by 50% to 80% before the SIP/SAH order. I am from Florida and my family all live there. They have been sheltering in place as long as I have.


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## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> In Florida, as I understand, people started to shelter in place at least 2 weeks before the state mandate. I just read an article about Florida in the Wall Street Journal. The article says the going out behavior of Floridians decreased by 50% to 80% before the SIP/SAH order. I am from Florida and my family all live there. They have been sheltering in place as long as I have.


You are right and that is true for many other places, it shows that people can act responsibly without being obliged to do it.


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

It is absolutely disingenuous to suggest that SIP had no impact. I won’t even engage on the question, and I’m sure most of us know better. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## davidvel (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> It is absolutely disingenuous to suggest that SIP had no impact. I won’t even engage on the question, and I’m sure most of us know better.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Any "absolute" science, data, facts, to back this up? Maybe "most of" you can opine.

Maybe SIP (aka house arrest) led to more people forced to be around those who are infected consistently and caused more deaths (pure speculation)?


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Any "absolute" science, data, facts, to back this up? Maybe "most of" you can opine.
> 
> Maybe SIP (aka house arrest) led to more people forced to be around those who are infected consistently and caused more deaths (pure speculation)?



Maybe.

Maybe is a great word.

Maybe SIP did nothing.

Maybe SIP did everything.

Maybe SIP helped us limit and extend the infection, and death, rate so that our hospitals didn’t get overburdened.

Maybe the virus was not going to exponentially expand if we did nothing, though science and past experiences indicate otherwise.

Maybe people saw the danger of infection and stayed home, thus limiting the potential number of people for the virus to infect.

Maybe governments saw that staying at home was a good concept, since limiting the number of people potentially exposed limits the spread of the virus. Perhaps they even read history and saw the same action was successful in 1918.

Maybe those same governments read the next chapter of the 1918 Spanish Flu that the second wave, after reopening the economy, was worse than the first wave. Or maybe not.

Maybe we would relish the flattening of the infection rate and realize that without a vaccine we are still at risk of infection, so we should take the time to increase our supplies of PPE, tests, medicines, and more prior to the next wave.

Maybe SIP (which is not “house arrest” since you are allowed to go to doctors, grocery, etc) simply reinforced common sense...which was to limit the number of exposed people to the virus. 

Maybe SIP is just one tool used against a pandemic, and that not any one action will solve this crisis.

Maybe one day we will agree that wearing masks in public is our way of protecting each other and is an inherent responsibility of the freedoms we enjoy in America. 

Maybe we can all find “experts” to reinforce our own opinion, though obviously not all would be correct. Confirmation bias, indeed. 

Maybe one day.

Maybe.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## rapmarks (May 4, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> In Florida, as I understand, people started to shelter in place at least 2 weeks before the state mandate. I just read an article about Florida in the Wall Street Journal. The article says the going out behavior of Floridians decreased by 50% to 80% before the SIP/SAH order. I am from Florida and my family all live there. They have been sheltering in place as long as I have.


Correct, everything shut down mid March. The last thing we attended was the second week of March.


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## geekette (May 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Any "absolute" science, data, facts, to back this up? Maybe "most of" you can opine.
> 
> Maybe SIP (aka house arrest) led to more people forced to be around those who are infected consistently and caused more deaths (pure speculation)?


House arrest????    Perhaps you have the US confused with other countries, which did not allow their citizens to move about freely.  

We have no non-stay-at-home data because that is not the path we chose.   We can see that the virus did spread exponentially before this guidance, and not so much spread after.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> It is absolutely disingenuous to suggest that SIP had no impact. I won’t even engage on the question, and I’m sure most of us know better.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


You can write more than a sentence without a personal attack, can't you?


----------



## WVBaker (May 4, 2020)

geekette said:


> House arrest????    Perhaps you have the US confused with other countries, which did not allow their citizens to move about freely.
> 
> We have no non-stay-at-home data because that is not the path we chose.   We can see that the virus did spread exponentially before this guidance, and not so much spread after.



We all define freedom differently.


----------



## geekette (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> You can write more than a sentence without a personal attack, can't you?


what personal attack?  Using the word disingenous?  that's a personal attack?  seems to me that your post of accusing personal attack was more of a personal attack.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

geekette said:


> We can see that the virus did spread exponentially before this guidance, and not so much spread after.


Can you please argue why the number of deaths in Sweden has not grown "exponentially" as some had predicted. In fact they are doing better than many other countries (and worse than others) and they announced that 25% of the population may be immune already.


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## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

geekette said:


> what personal attack?  Using the word disingenous?  that's a personal attack?  seems to me that your post of accusing personal attack was more of a personal attack.


I know if I told my wife she was disingenuous it would not go very well. How about "absolutely disingenuous"
Isn't disingenuous a softer way of saying someone is dishonest?


----------



## geekette (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Can you please argue why the number of death in Sweden has not grown "exponentially" as some had predicted. In fact they are doing better than many other countries (and worse than others) and they announced that 25% of the population may be immune already.


No, I won't argue anything about Sweden.  I do not know what state(s) it is similar to, I don't know if their general health is comparable to our generally unhealthy population.

You can argue Sweden.


----------



## Old Hickory (May 4, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> We all define freedom differently.



As did the Tories/Loyalists.    

(I'm just trying to have some fun here)


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

geekette said:


> No, I won't argue anything about Sweden.  I do not know what state(s) it is similar to, I don't know if their general health is comparable to our generally unhealthy population.
> 
> You can argue Sweden.



+1 Sweden is very different than the U.S.  It is a country with huge government safety nets and medical care for all.

Swedish citizens who become ill know that the government will take care of them both financially and medically. Not happening in the USA.

As a result, trust with its citizens is very different than the U.S. Perhaps this trust results in more compliance with government guidelines without needing to put such restrictions into law.


----------



## "Roger" (May 4, 2020)

Personally, I am just not ready to declare Sweden a success. The numbers, at present, are not good. Deaths per 1m people:

Sweden 274

versus its neighbors which have at least somewhat similar cultures

Denmark 85
Norway 39
Finland 43

I've seen posts suggesting we should compare Sweden with Quebec and Portugal. Well if you are allowed to pick a country anywhere in the world, why not the Czech Republic, same geographic size and same population density, but a total lock  down country:

Czech Republic 23

(Personally, I don't consider that a good comparison as opposed to the other Scandinavian countries. I am just trying to show, with the whole world available, one can cherry pick.)

I am not about to declare Sweden a failure. Despite some denials, they are trying for herd immunity and it might work, just too early to tell. Finally, here is a medical size that I often consult for other reasons with its evaluation of the Swedish experiment.

webmd

PS: Like others, I don't like some of the endless back and forth that develops on some threads. I have stated what I thought might be useful and will leave it at that until there are new developments.


----------



## WVBaker (May 4, 2020)

Not everyone is happy with Sedens heathcare system.  

Swedes enjoy world-class healthcare—when they get it








						Swedes enjoy world-class healthcare—when they get it
					

Asia Nader didn't know whether to worry more about being diagnosed with a hole in her heart at the age of 21, or having to wait a year for Swedish doctors to fix it.




					medicalxpress.com
				




Covid-19 in Sweden: “We are suffering the full extent of our broken healthcare system”




__





						Covid-19 in Sweden: “We are suffering the full extent of our broken healthcare system” - International Viewpoint - online socialist magazine
					

The Guardian reports: A petition signed by more than 2,000 doctors, scientists, and professors last week – including the chairman of the Nobel Foundation, Prof Carl-Henrik Heldin – called on the government to introduce more stringent containment measures. “We're not testing enough, we're not...



					www.internationalviewpoint.org


----------



## isisdave (May 4, 2020)

Sweden reports about 5-9 times as many deaths as its Nordic neighbors, per 100,000 population. We'll have to see at the wrap-up after this mess what the final tally is, and what particular part of society had to pay the price in each country.

Sweden's death total today is about 2800 and Portugal's is 1007; they each have about 10 million people. Finland's is 252, and they're about 5.5 million. The August 4 predictions for Sweden and Portugal (which I don't put much stock in, too far out) are 17337 vs 1023. That's pretty remarkable; it suggest Portugal has hit the plateau.  See https://covid19.healthdata.org/portugal -- hope it's true but skeptical of this one too.

All the forecasts presume continuation of SIP, which is weakening almost everywhere in Europe.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

I do not know why people compare Sweden just to other Nordic countries in Europe. Sweden also has close numbers with the province of Quebec, Canada and it shares many similarities in terms of population, density and health care system. Also if you look at Quebec and Ontario, Quebec is doing much worse even if they shared a common SIP  approach (in some ways Quebec's was tougher actually)

But the point in talking about Sweden is to show that even if their situation was a bit worse than some countries (and better than others'), for sure it is not the gloom and doom that some had expected if those models were right. Another important element is that Sweden, if their estimates are correct and they are indeed at 25% immunization, they are half way through this pandemic already, something we cannot say about the rest of the world.


----------



## Old Hickory (May 4, 2020)

Hooray for the Swedes because they will provide a great lesson for the future!    It's my hope they succeed.


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)




----------



## cman (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Can you please argue why the number of deaths in Sweden has not grown "exponentially" as some had predicted. In fact they are doing better than many other countries (and worse than others) and they announced that 25% of the population may be immune already.


Sweden isn't doing that well when compared with its neighboring countries;


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> View attachment 20112


is anyone serious in comparing Lebanon with the United States?

Also, the graphs are misleading IMO, these are the current ones for Sweden, for sure not an exponential growth.









						Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> is anyone serious in comparing Lebanon with the United States?
> 
> Also, the graphs are misleading IMO, these are the current ones for Sweden, for sure not an exponential growth.



You’re misinterpreting the graph.


----------



## davidvel (May 4, 2020)

isisdave said:


> Sweden reports about 5-9 times as many deaths as its Nordic neighbors, per 100,000 population. We'll have to see at the wrap-up after this mess what the final tally is, and what particular part of society had to pay the price in each country.
> 
> Sweden's death total today is about 2800 and Portugal's is 1007; they each have about 10 million people. Finland's is 252, and they're about 5.5 million. The August 4 predictions for Sweden and Portugal (which I don't put much stock in, too far out) are 17337 vs 1023. That's pretty remarkable; it suggest Portugal has hit the plateau.  See https://covid19.healthdata.org/portugal -- hope it's true but skeptical of this one too.
> 
> All the forecasts presume continuation of SIP, which is weakening almost everywhere in Europe.


Yes, if everyone were locked up indefinitely, it would peter out in a few weeks. When the Portuguese start heading out they may have as accomplished  little and start back at square one, at an enormous cost.  Smart distancing, sanitizing, strictly quarantining the ill and other reasonable precautions are what's  needed, not lock downs.


----------



## Cornell (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> View attachment 20112


why isn't China's data / curve on here?


----------



## WVBaker (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> This is a report from FEMA and the CDC, based on a document from the government. This isn’t a partisan issue.



The name "Trump" sounds like fingernails across the chalkboard to you doesn't it.   Let's try to find links that doesn't name names shall we? That way there can be no debate as to whether it's political or not.


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

Cornell said:


> why isn't China's data / curve on here?



Ask Harvard. The link and source are on the image.


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Let's try to find links that doesn't name names shall we? That way there can be no debate as to whether it's political or not.



Perhaps the same message from a conservative source? Of course, this news is all over right now so you will likely find it almost everywhere. Take your pick.









						Internal CDC Models Project 3,000 Daily COVID Deaths by June 1 | National Review
					

There are currently over 1,100,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. and close to 68,000 deaths, with 19,000 deaths in New York City alone.




					www.nationalreview.com
				




*



			Internal CDC Models Project 3,000 Daily COVID Deaths by June 1
		
Click to expand...

*


> The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is projecting the U.S. coronavirus daily death toll to reach about 3,000 people by June 1, with 200,000 new cases per day by the same date, the New York Times reported on Monday.


----------



## WVBaker (May 4, 2020)

Ken, I for one couldn't care less. I even enjoy a little wrangling, however the moderators, as you can see above, prefer that it not take place. Posts of less political definition have been deleted.


----------



## cman (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> is anyone serious in comparing Lebanon with the United States?
> 
> Also, the graphs are misleading IMO, these are the current ones for Sweden, for sure not an exponential growth.
> 
> ...


Dude, Sweden has 10 times the deaths of Norway and Findland, and 5 times the deaths of Denmark. Again, Sweden is probably not the example we want to follow. Unless you want to increase our death rate by a factor of 10.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Perhaps the same message from a conservative source? Of course, this news is all over right now so you will likely find it almost everywhere. Take your pick.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Since the number of deaths is* a lagging indicator* this may be a sign that the SIP did *not* work.

After 6 weeks, one  would expect the number of new cases to be really low and the number of deaths to go down dramatically.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

cman said:


> Dude, they have 10 times the deaths of Norway and Findland and 5 times the deaths of Denmark. Again, Sweden is probably not the example we want to follow. Unless you want to increase our death rate by a factor of 10.


They also have a larger population. Also they report the number of people who died _with_ Covid not _from_ Covid, you have to take that into account. Most of their  deaths are concentrated in the nursing homes, a sign we should all do a better job in protecting those at high risk while letting everyone else earn a living.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

@DannyTS  So my takeaway from your argument is that the USA should become like Sweden, a society that allows for liberal coronavirus approaches so those that can work are able to do so. When they get sick they can fall back on Sweden's big government healthcare and welfare safety net.


----------



## cman (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> They also have a larger population. Also they report the number of people who died _with_ Covid not _from_ Covid, you have to take that into account. Most of their  deaths are concentrated in the nursing homes, a sign we should all do a better job in protecting those at high risk while letting everyone else earn a living.


It sounds like you've fixated on an idea and are cherry picking and manufacturing information to support your position. I did see a news report that attributed a third of Sweden's deaths to nursing homes. I have not seen a report that "most" of their deaths were in senior care facilities. If you have a source, please share. But the bottom line is that Sweden is not doing as well as their neighbors. So say the facts.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> @DannyTS  So my takeaway from your argument is that the USA should become like Sweden, a society that allows for liberal coronavirus approaches so those that can work are able to do so. When they get sick they can fall back on Sweden's big government healthcare and welfare safety net.


As a Canadian I have no problem with this concept in the short, medium or long term. But I thought the treatment was already covered for all those with Covid in the United States, unless something changed.
In any case, I am not aware of any person who have died _with_ Covid in the US due to a lack of treatment.









						Trump says ALL uninsured people will get free coronavirus treatment
					

Donald Trump announced  the government will pay for coronavirus treatments for those without insurance by using funds from the $2.2 trillion economic aid package the president signed into law last week.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> As a Canadian I have no problem with this concept in the short, medium or long term. But I thought the treatment was already covered for all those with Covid in the United States, unless something changed.
> In any case, I am not aware of any person who have died _with_ Covid in the US due to a lack of treatment.
> 
> 
> ...



There are many in the U.S. who are not covered by healthcare. Hospitals are declaring bankruptcy due to patients that are not covered by insurance overwhelming the system. If the government was bailing them out, I am certain hospitals would not be declaring bankruptcy.

Many are dying in their homes because they cannot afford to go to a healthcare facility due to lack of insurance. Want to play Covid roulette? e.g. What if you go to the ER, run up $10k+ fees in tests, prescriptions and care (yes an ER visit without insurance will run this much) and you find out later it was the flu and not Covid-19? Congratulations, you don't have Covid but you are now stuck with a $10k bill...

The U.S. is also providing insufficient coverage for people who lose their jobs. The system is so backlogged they cannot get the payments out to small businesses and claimants. Big companies claimed much the funds designated for small businesses due to loopholes and there is not enough to go around.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

cman said:


> It sounds like you've fixated on an idea and are cherry picking and manufacturing information to support your position. I did see a news report that attributed a third of Sweden's deaths to nursing homes. I have not seen a report that "most" of their deaths were in senior care facilities. If you have a source, please share. But the bottom line is that Sweden is not doing as well as their neighbors. So say the facts.


I do not know why we keep on conveniently compare Sweden just to the other Nordic countries. From what I read, Sweden's spring break was mid-February and a lot of people went to Italy, Spain, France and Portugal for warmer weather. This for sure contributed to the outbreak, possibly much more than the lack of SIP


Winter holiday 2019Middle-Sweden: Gävleborg, Dalarnes, Örebro, Uppsala,Värmland, Västmanland11-02-201915-02-201907









						School Holidays Sweden ⋆ Schoolholidays Europe
					

In Sweden there are slight differences in the school holiday dates per region or city. There is no difference between primary or secondary education. Most Swedish school holidays are determined centrally by the government. Only in case of the winter holiday and the Easter holidays there are...




					www.schoolholidayseurope.eu
				




by contrast, Norway normally has the spring break in April, but of course travel to Europe was already restricted by that time


Easter holidays 201915-04-201922-04-201916 - 17









						School Holidays Norway ⋆ Schoolholidays Europe
					

The Norwegian summer holiday is approximately from June 24 to August 12. The construction industry is closed in the last three weeks of July. Norway also spread the school holidays over different regions. School Holidays Norway 2019 The following dates are expected for Norway in 2019, as far as...




					www.schoolholidayseurope.eu


----------



## TravelTime (May 4, 2020)

The US healthcare system is in trouble.

******

Historic financial decline hits doctors, dentists and hospitals — despite covid-19 — threatening overall economy

Even as the novel coronavirus pandemic draws attention and resources to the nation’s doctors and hospitals, the health-care industry is suffering a historic collapse in business that is emerging as one of the most powerful forces hurting the U.S. economy and a threat to a potential recovery.

The widespread economic shutdown deployed to reduce transmission of the coronavirus hit hospitals and health-care providers with particular force as they prepared to face the pandemic.

Most elective surgeries nationwide were postponed beginning in mid-March. Dentists offices were closed. Physicians stopped seeing all but the sickest patients in their offices. Stay-at-home orders didn’t just prevent people from dining in restaurants — they led people to avoid medical services, too, amid concerns about the virus’s disease, covid-19. More than 200 hospitals, including Children’s National Hospital in Washington, have furloughed workers, according to a tally by Becker’s Hospital Review......



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/04/financial-distress-among-doctors-hospitals-despite-covid-19-weighs-heavily-economy/


----------



## Luanne (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> In any case, I am not aware of any person who have died _with_ Covid in the US due to a lack of treatment.


Those cases exist.

Here is one:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...om-admittance-tpi-composites-newt/3065169001/


----------



## Cornell (May 4, 2020)

@TravelTime I asked our HR department if we are going to get any type of refund on our dental insurance premiums given that most of us won't be able to use the benefits of our insurance this year (2 exams / cleanings).  I was told NOPE.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> There are many in the U.S. who are not covered by healthcare. Hospitals are declaring bankruptcy due to patients that are not covered by insurance overwhelming the system. If the government was bailing them out, I am certain hospitals would not be declaring bankruptcy.


From what I know, this is not accurate. Hospitals have cancelled all non-urgent procedures waiting for a tsunami  of Covid patients than never came. A lot of people did not go the the doctor's or to the hospital due to the fear of being infected. The 2 means that the hospitals have lost a lot of money and they had to reduce hours and fire staff.


----------



## Luanne (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> From what I know, this is not accurate. Hospitals have cancelled all non-urgent procedures waiting for a tsunami  of Covid patients than never came. A lot of people did not go the the doctor's or to the hospital due to the fear of being infected. The 2 means that the hospitals have lost a lot of money and they had to reduce hours and fire staff.


You said you are Canadian right?  How much do you really know about the U.S. healthcare system?


----------



## TravelTime (May 4, 2020)

Another big health care problem.

******

The coronavirus pandemic is pushing America into a mental health crisis
Anxiety and depression are rising. The U.S. is ill-prepared, with some clinics already on the brink of collapse.

Three months into the coronavirus pandemic, America is on the verge of another health crisis, with daily doses of death, isolation and fear generating widespread psychological trauma.

Federal agencies and experts warn that a historic wave of mental health problems is approaching: depression, substance abuse, post-traumatic stress disorder and suicide.

Just as the initial coronavirus outbreak caught hospitals unprepared, the country’s mental health system — vastly underfunded, fragmented and difficult to access before the pandemic — is even less prepared to handle this coming surge.......



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/04/mental-health-coronavirus/


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

The tsunami of seriously sick uninsured patients showing up in ER, plus the ban on profitable elective procedures is placing undue burden on hospitals.

Elective procedures were stopped to reduce the burden on PPE, ventilators and beds. If these items were in sufficient supply this would not have happened.  The government is not bailing out hospitals for this tsunami.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Those cases exist.
> 
> Here is one:
> 
> https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...om-admittance-tpi-composites-newt/3065169001/


I do not find anywhere in the article that it is due to lack of insurance and this is what we were talking about.  Unfortunately cases like this happen all the time with a lot of other conditions when people are not taken seriously and they later die.


----------



## Cornell (May 4, 2020)

@TravelTime  I saw in my local suburban newspaper that police "nuisance calls" have gone up 300+% since this whole thing started.  Another by-product / problem.

And....I've heard concerns of other health problems w/kids b/c they are all falling behind on vaccinations.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Another big health care problem.
> 
> ******
> 
> ...



This is where I hope we can see some disruptive innovation in telehealth and electronic monitoring applications without all the FDA red tape. Items from zoom therapy appointments to sensors that can remind and track medication compliance, symptom check-ins and control would be a cost effective and broader way to get care to those that cannot access it today.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

More than 8.5% of the U.S. population is uninsured. That's about 25.5 - 27 million people! Mostly working poor who earn too much to receive government aid, or are in state that doesn't offer expanded medicaid, or cannot afford insurance. They call this the "healthcare gap."









						Key Facts about the Uninsured Population
					

This issue brief describes trends in health coverage prior to the pandemic, examines the characteristics of the uninsured population in 2019, and summarizes the access and financial implications of…




					www.kff.org


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Elective procedures were stopped to reduce the burden on PPE, ventilators and beds. If these items were in sufficient supply this would not have happened.


to avoid getting into Federal and State politics, this is happening in Canada. I am sure though one can find similar examples in the States. 









						Why the emergency departments look empty amid a viral outbreak
					

Several emergency room doctors report relatively quiet ERs these days -- likely due to the fact people have curtailed routine visits that can be addressed by virtual or in-person consults with their family doctor, and the fact widespread isolation has cut opportunities for sports injuries...




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## geekette (May 4, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> There are many in the U.S. who are not covered by healthcare. Hospitals are declaring bankruptcy due to patients that are not covered by insurance overwhelming the system. If the government was bailing them out, I am certain hospitals would not be declaring bankruptcy.
> 
> Many are dying in their homes because they cannot afford to go to a healthcare facility due to lack of insurance. Want to play Covid roulette? e.g. What if you go to the ER, run up $10k+ fees in tests, prescriptions and care (yes an ER visit without insurance will run this much) and you find out later it was the flu and not Covid-19? Congratulations, you don't have Covid but you are now stuck with a $10k bill...
> 
> The U.S. is also providing insufficient coverage for people who lose their jobs to pay bills. The system is so backlogged they cannot get the payments out to small businesses and claimants. Big companies claimed much the funds designated for small businesses due to loopholes and there is not enough to go around.



There are reports of people returning home to die after being rejected by ER.  It is not true that everyone is getting treatment when they show up for it.  

There is absolutely no assurance that US is covering treatment, but are apparently covering testing in some cases (might depend on test vendor, or your state, or your employer, or postmortem...?)


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

@DannyTS Sure, I am certain this is happening at some hospitals not in hot zones. Like Canada, the U.S. is a big country with many variations.

If you removed the ban on elective procedures, the fear of catching Covid doesn't go away though. In addition, we simply don't have enough PPE for the service providers, first responders and nursing homes that need it. This supply problem must be addressed first before we can spare PPE for elective procedures. (I certainly wouldn't want to go for an elective procedure until I was certain they had the proper PPE to protect from catching Covid)

I just heard a Gates view that we could improve the supply of swabs if the FDA lowered the standard from just one factory in Maine and China.  It seems this is a problem with overly restrictive requirements that could be addressed. If GM and Ford can figure out how to manufacture ventilators, then certainly some US or Canadian companies can figure out how manufacture sterile QTips without having to rely on China.


----------



## TravelTime (May 4, 2020)

This article is related to the topic of this thread.

**********
California reopening would start slow, not be complete for a year or longer, expert estimates.
Robert Kim-Farley, infectious disease expert, says Stage 4 of Gov. Newsom’s reopening plan for California may not be implemented until mid to late 2021.









						California reopening would start slow, not be complete for a year or longer, expert estimates — Los Angeles Times
					

Robert Kim-Farley, infectious disease expert, says Stage 4 of Gov. Newsom's reopening plan for California may not be implemented until mid to late 2021.




					apple.news


----------



## PigsDad (May 4, 2020)

Cornell said:


> why isn't China's data / curve on here?


I don't know if I would trust any data from China regarding the pandemic these days, so it would be useless to include it, IMO.  Maybe the authors were thinking the same thing?

Kurt


----------



## bnoble (May 4, 2020)

> The new coronavirus is likely to keep spreading for at least another 18 months to two years



I've come to a similar conclusion, and am starting to make plans to defer almost all travel at least into 2021, if not beyond. There is no appetite in the US to perform the testing, tracing and isolation necessary to any other outcome. So, if I want my family to be in the 30-40%, it is going to be on us.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Trump says ALL uninsured people will get free coronavirus treatment
> 
> 
> Donald Trump announced  the government will pay for coronavirus treatments for those without insurance by using funds from the $2.2 trillion economic aid package the president signed into law last week.
> ...




FWIW @WVBaker You missed this one. Perhaps you were away at lunch? Relying on you.


----------



## davidvel (May 4, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Those cases exist.
> 
> Here is one:
> 
> https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...om-admittance-tpi-composites-newt/3065169001/


The article says the couple had insurance, and nothing suggests they were turned away for financial reasons. Just poor medical decisions.


----------



## Luanne (May 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> The article says the couple had insurance, and nothing suggests they were turned away for financial reasons. Just poor medical decisions.


I was responding to this statement:  "In any case, I am not aware of any person who have died _with_ Covid in the US due to a lack of treatment." That particular statement said nothing about insurance. If that was the topic (hard to tell in these threads) I missed it.


----------



## davidvel (May 4, 2020)

geekette said:


> There are reports of people returning home to die after being rejected by ER.  It is not true that everyone is getting treatment when they show up for it.
> 
> There is absolutely no assurance that US is covering treatment, but are apparently covering testing in some cases (might depend on test vendor, or your state, or your employer, or postmortem...?)


Can you cite a source that these are due to lack of insurance as opposed to medical decision making?

ERs cannot turn someone away for financial reasons.


----------



## davidvel (May 4, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I was responding to this statement:  "In any case, I am not aware of any person who have died _with_ Covid in the US due to a lack of treatment." That particular statement said nothing about insurance. If that was the topic (hard to tell in these threads) I missed it.


You are focusing on that particular statement and ignoring the point of his comments.  You were responding to the post that said "*But I thought the treatment was already covered for all those with Covid in the United States*, unless something changed.
In any case, I am not aware of any person who have died _with_ Covid in the US due to a lack of treatment."

DannyTS was talking about people not being treated for financial/insurance reasons, not because the doctors thought they weren't sick enough to be admitted, which is an entirely different thing.


----------



## Luanne (May 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> You are focusing on that particular statement and ignoring the point of his comments.  You were responding to the post that said "*But I thought the treatment was already covered for all those with Covid in the United States*, unless something changed.
> In any case, I am not aware of any person who have died _with_ Covid in the US due to a lack of treatment."
> 
> DannyTS was talking about people not being treated for financial/insurance reasons, not because the doctors thought they weren't sick enough to be admitted, which is an entirely different thing.


Fine.  I was wrong.  End of it.


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

BTW... the test may be covered, but still need to pay for treatment even if insured.

_"Thanks to lawmakers, coronavirus tests are now free for all Americans. But if you do test positive for COVID-19 and require treatment, the hospital bills could easily cost Americans tens of thousands of dollars, even if you have insurance." _









						Uninsured Americans could be facing nearly $75,000 in medical bills if hospitalized for coronavirus
					

Thanks to lawmakers, coronavirus tests are now free for all Americans. But if you do test positive for COVID-19 and require treatment, the hospital bills could easily cost Americans tens of thousands of dollars.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## VacationForever (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> From what I know, this is not accurate. Hospitals have cancelled all non-urgent procedures waiting for a tsunami  of Covid patients than never came. A lot of people did not go the the doctor's or to the hospital due to the fear of being infected. The 2 means that the hospitals have lost a lot of money and they had to reduce hours and fire staff.


It is true for me as I cancelled my 2 specialist May appointments because of fear of being infected even though they wanted to see me in person.  It is a double whammy for doctors and hospital systems.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

Luanne said:


> You said you are Canadian right?  How much do you really know about the U.S. healthcare system?



You have to know, some of us do have internet here in the igloos .


----------



## Luanne (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> You have to know, some of us do have internet here in the igloos .


Really.  My daughter spent quite a few years in BC in school.  She said they were just learning to use stone tablets.

Part of my question was because I have several Canadian friends who just love to post articles about how horrible things are in the U.S.  We know it and it doesn't help to have our face rubbed in it by our neighbors to the north.


----------



## Cornell (May 4, 2020)

So.....my friend here in Illinois owns a hair salon. Health department called her and told her that they "recommend" not booking any hair appointments before July.  So, the writing is on the wall here.


----------



## TravelTime (May 4, 2020)

Personally, given we have great health insurance, I think the US healthcare system is fabulous. I think I would prefer it over a universal health care system run by the government. My concern with universal health care would be rationing and long waits to get appointments. I do not know how many countries ration their health care but it seems like I read about that a lot. Also hear about long wait times for appointments. OTOH, if I did not have private insurance, I am sure I would prefer a government-run system over nothing. I wonder how I will like Medicare when I turn 65. I am somewhat worried it will be hard to find providers. Many people buy supplemental insurance with Medicare and need to upgrade from the basic plan in order to get good care. I see Medicare as our version of universal health care for older folks. At some point, we will have no choice but to go on Medicare when we can no longer get private health insurance through my DH’s job. Maybe some of you who are older can share a little about how Medicare actually works?


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Really.  My daughter spent quite a few years in BC in school.  She said they were just learning to use stone tablets.
> 
> Part of my question was because I have several Canadian friends who just love to post articles about how horrible things are in the U.S.  We know it and it doesn't help to have our face rubbed in it by our neighbors to the north.


On a serious note, I am always willing to learn and obviously I do not know as much about the American health care system as some of you but I do know a little bit. I am also following several private American and Canadian FB groups for the health care professionals and their families and I understand a little bit what is going on.


----------



## WVBaker (May 4, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> FWIW @WVBaker You missed this one. Perhaps you were away at lunch? Relying on you.



Good eye. I have little doubt our moderators will stamp this "*DELETED*".


----------



## Luanne (May 4, 2020)

Cornell said:


> So.....my friend here in Illinois owns a hair salon. Health department called her and told her that they "recommend" not booking any hair appointments before July.  So, the writing is on the wall here.


I talked to someone here today who said he hairdresser told her salons won't open until June 1.  Haven't seen or heard anything official. But being that our stay at home order doesn't end until May 15 that sounds about right.  I can't imagine that spas, salons, gyms and tattoo parlors are going to be in the second wave of openings.


----------



## Luanne (May 4, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Personally, given we have great health insurance, I think the US healthcare system is fabulous. I think I would prefer it over a universal health care system run by the government. My concern with universal health care would be rationing and long waits to get appointments. I do not know how many countries ration their health care but it seems like I read about that a lot. Also hear about long wait times for appointments. OTOH, if I did not have private insurance, I am sure I would prefer a government-run system over nothing. I wonder how I will like Medicare when I turn 65. I am somewhat worried it will be hard to find providers. Many people buy supplemental insurance with Medicare and need to upgrade from the basic plan in order to get good care. I see Medicare as our version of universal health care for older folks. At some point, we will have no choice but to go on Medicare when we can no longer get private health insurance through my DH’s job. Maybe some of you who are older can share a little about how Medicare actually works?


If you can afford great healthcare, or if it is provided by your employer or through Medicare, then yeah, it's pretty good.  But it's NOT affordable for many people.  I know folks who have opted to go without insurance and just hope nothing happens to them.  One couple I know doesn't have insurance, but did take it out for their son. Good thing as the son just had an emergency appendectomy.

I've seen the hospital bills that have been submitted to our insurance companies and Medicare.  They are insane.

You need to do some research into Medicare, before you become eligible.  Much of what you've said isn't true for most people  For example, we've had no problems finding providers.  We do have a supplemental plan, we didn't "upgrade" whatever that means.


----------



## Cornell (May 4, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I talked to someone here today who said he hairdresser told her salons won't open until June 1.  Haven't seen or heard anything official. But being that our stay at home order doesn't end until May 15 that sounds about right.  I can't imagine that spas, salons, gyms and tattoo parlors are going to be in the second wave of openings.


Will any of these businesses still be in business come July?


----------



## Luanne (May 4, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Will any of these businesses still be in business come July?


Yes.  

Some of them have gotten Payroll Protection or Small Business Loans.  Employees are getting unemployment.  The gym I go to was able to pay all of their regular employees for at least two months and they are now trying to figure how they are going to re-open (it won't be June 1).  The place I go for facials is selling product currently.  I talked to the owner and she said they're doing okay and her landlord offered not to charge rent. She declined as she said she had enough put aside.  My hairdresser declined being paid ahead as he said he learned back when he was in his 30's that he needed to have money put aside.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> BTW... the test may be covered, but still need to pay for treatment even if insured.
> 
> _"Thanks to lawmakers, coronavirus tests are now free for all Americans. But if you do test positive for COVID-19 and require treatment, the hospital bills could easily cost Americans tens of thousands of dollars, even if you have insurance." _
> 
> ...


Still not sure about that: “Hospitals are going to treat uninsured patients the same way they would treat any other patient. Their ability to pay is not going to be taken into account,” said Molly Smith, vice president of the coverage and state issues forum at the American Hospital Association.









						How uninsured patients can get help during COVID-19 pandemic
					

States, advocacy organizations and health care professionals are taking steps to ensure that the uninsured can still get testing and treatment in order to help slow the spread of the disease, but that hasn’t dissipated the confusion and worry that many may be feeling as case numbers rise across...




					www.pbs.org


----------



## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Still not sure about that: “Hospitals are going to treat uninsured patients the same way they would treat any other patient. Their ability to pay is not going to be taken into account,” said Molly Smith, vice president of the coverage and state issues forum at the American Hospital Association.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Exactly right. This is why hospitals are going bankrupt. Anyone who shows up in an ER [at least in California and other states too] is required to be treated. Many uninsured end up declaring bankruptcy so they don't have to pay the bill. The hospital is stuck with it. On the flip side the hospitals charge exhorbitant non-negotiated rates so an aspirin is $1000.


----------



## WVBaker (May 4, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> On the flip side the hospitals charge exhorbitant non-negotiated rates so an aspirin is $1000.



And it's generic. Not even Bayer.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> And it's generic. Not even Bayer.


Bayer is $1500


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

"Gov. Gavin Newsom says reopening will begin this week"









						Coronavirus updates: These California businesses can reopen this week, and these can’t
					

The Los Angeles Times will provide around-the-clock updates on COVID-19 from across Southern California and around the world.Tracking the coronavirus in California: latest numbers | Support our journalism with a subscriptionHave a question about coronavirus? Send us your questions here. | You also…




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Luanne (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> "Gov. Gavin Newsom says reopening will begin this week"
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Very limited, except in a couple of counties that for some reason have opened sooner.

The openings are to retail business that can offer curbside pickup.


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (May 4, 2020)

I think there are a few things we that have been shown:

Covid-19 is far more dangerous than SARS, because while with those who have SARS the death rate is much higher, it is only transmitted when one is symptomatic, where as Covid 19, can be transmitted when one is asymptomatic, which can be up to 14 days.

Covid-19 is more dangerous and can kill more people than the seasonal flu,  nearly 70,000 as of today where the CDC range for the flu  in the 19-20 season was 29-60,000.  Covid has only been killing people in the US for about 3 months,, that we know of.

We weren't prepared on a national level for any kind of pandemic, no coherent policy no ready stockpile etc, even though there were plenty of cries from the scientists who spend their life studying and working in this field. 

We can't, as laymen(women) here on TUG offer anything other than our opinions since I don't think anyone is an expert in the field or knew much about pandemics prior to February 1.


----------



## Panina (May 4, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> It is true for me as I cancelled my 2 specialist May appointments because of fear of being infected even though they wanted to see me in person.  It is a double whammy for doctors and hospital systems.


I have chosen to go on my two doctor appointments.  One is to check again my retina from the bleeder/appt 2 weeks ago, the other because there is a lesion on my thigh that needs to be checked out.  

This virus will be around for awhile.  Waiting it out to go to doctors appointments might reduce your risk for getting the virus but then you can get something worse.  I don’t want to risk losing my sight in my eye or having a cancer lesion that ends up killing me.


----------



## Cornell (May 4, 2020)

Wait, what?  I'm not an expert on infectious disease?  

In all seriousness, my brain feels like it's going to explode sometimes trying to keep up with all of the info that is available on the topic.  I should just probably go back to watching The Real Housewives and call it a day.


----------



## TravelTime (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> "Gov. Gavin Newsom says reopening will begin this week"
> 
> 
> 
> ...



California is going to open very slowly. We are under SIP until the end of May. I have heard we will have 4 phases and it will take into 2021 for a full opening. Many people will remain working at home for awhile. Many companies in Silicon Valley will allow their office workers to continue working from home.


----------



## Panina (May 4, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Personally, given we have great health insurance, I think the US healthcare system is fabulous. I think I would prefer it over a universal health care system run by the government. My concern with universal health care would be rationing and long waits to get appointments. I do not know how many countries ration their health care but it seems like I read about that a lot. Also hear about long wait times for appointments. OTOH, if I did not have private insurance, I am sure I would prefer a government-run system over nothing. I wonder how I will like Medicare when I turn 65. I am somewhat worried it will be hard to find providers. Many people buy supplemental insurance with Medicare and need to upgrade from the basic plan in order to get good care. I see Medicare as our version of universal health care for older folks. At some point, we will have no choice but to go on Medicare when we can no longer get private health insurance through my DH’s job. Maybe some of you who are older can share a little about how Medicare actually works?


My mom is on Medicare and purchases a secondary private policy that covers the 20% Medicare doesn’t.

My moms coverage is great, never had an issue.  I have alway had my mom take the plain Medicare program, never letting her join a HMO type Medicare program.  The reason, she has choice and can go to the doctors and specialists she chooses, not the ones that are in the group plans.


----------



## Panina (May 4, 2020)

SC, all the stores are opened in my area and today they are allowing restaurants to serve outdoors.  I called an order into my local bakery to order my gluten free birthday cake and I was told business is good.  I was happy to hear that for a local business.

Now, holding my breathe to see where our numbers are in 4 weeks.  I am hoping it stays steady, knowing no way it will disappear and praying a huge spike doesn’t occur.


----------



## Brett (May 4, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Personally, given we have great health insurance, I think the US healthcare system is fabulous. I think I would prefer it over a universal health care system run by the government. My concern with universal health care would be rationing and long waits to get appointments. I do not know how many countries ration their health care but it seems like I read about that a lot. Also hear about long wait times for appointments. OTOH, if I did not have private insurance, I am sure I would prefer a government-run system over nothing. I wonder how I will like Medicare when I turn 65. I am somewhat worried it will be hard to find providers. Many people buy supplemental insurance with Medicare and need to upgrade from the basic plan in order to get good care. I see Medicare as our version of universal health care for older folks. At some point, we will have no choice but to go on Medicare when we can no longer get private health insurance through my DH’s job. Maybe some of you who are older can share a little about how Medicare actually works?



The US healthcare system is indeed fabulous for those with that have health insurance through a company that covers it's employees  -- for others ..... not so much
I'm glad I'm on Medicare


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> Covid-19 is more dangerous and can kill more people than the seasonal flu, nearly 70,000 as of today where the CDC range for the flu in the 19-20 season was 29-60,000. Covid has only been killing people in the US for about 3 months,, that we know of.



No. The flu range you reference is based on calculated totals. We need to be comparing apples to apples; death totals to death totals. Actual flu deaths are much, much less than the CDC estimates as shown in previous posts. 



> The annual flu mortality figures published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are estimates produced by plugging laboratory-confirmed deaths into a mathematical model that attempts to correct for undercounting. Covid-19 death figures represent a literal count of people who have either tested positive for the virus or whose diagnosis was based on meeting certain clinical and epidemiological criteria.



For comparison, as of a few days ago:







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## CalGalTraveler (May 4, 2020)

Once we get the supply chain rolling, sufficient PPE for everyone, testing in place, and businesses reconfigured to support social distancing and masks, a lot should open up. IMO masks and social distancing will go a long way if everyone in public spaces complies.  Large gatherings and crowded public transport will still be challenged.


----------



## WVBaker (May 4, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> I think there are a few things we that have been shown:
> 
> Covid-19 is far more dangerous than SARS, because while with those who have SARS the death rate is much higher, it is only transmitted when one is symptomatic, where as Covid 19, can be transmitted when one is asymptomatic, which can be up to 14 days.
> 
> ...



I can't think of even one nation that was prepared for this pandemic, regardless of how many scientists there were.

Now, should you wish to discuss your last line and this isn't deleted sometime during the night, we can proceed. Something tells me though, by the last comment in and of itself, you've crossed a dangerous line. One that the moderators are not fond of it seems. As for me though and it remains, I'm game.


----------



## davidvel (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> No. The flu range you reference is based on calculated totals. We need to be comparing apples to apples; death totals to death totals. Actual flu deaths are much, much less than the CDC estimates as shown in previous posts.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is because Flu deaths are not tracked like COVID-19 deaths. For the last month at least, all hospitalized patients with sever respiratory symptoms are being tested. Here's what CDC says about flu testing and modeling:

_CDC does not know the exact number of flu illnesses, flu-associated hospitalizations, or flu-associated deaths in adults for several reasons:

First, many people who become sick with flu will recover in a few days to less than two weeks and may not seek medical care.  For people who do seek medical care, most are not tested because the test results usually do not change how you are treated.

Second, people may seek medical care later in their illness when seasonal flu can no longer be detected from respiratory samples. Sensitive flu tests are only likely to detect flu if performed within a week after onset of illness. In addition, some commonly used tests to diagnose flu in clinical settings are not highly sensitive and can provide false negative results (i.e. they miss true flu infections.)

Third, states are not required to report to CDC individual seasonal flu cases or hospitalizations for people of any age; and are only required to report deaths only for children less than 18 years of age. Additionally many seasonal flu-related deaths occur one or two weeks after a person’s initial infection, either because the person may develop a secondary bacterial co-infection (such as bacterial pneumonia) or because seasonal flu can aggravate an existing chronic illness (such as congestive heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease).  Therefore, seasonal flu is infrequently listed on death certificates of people who die from flu-related complications.

For these reasons, surveillance data may drastically underrepresent the true burden of flu in the U.S. To gain a better understanding of the actual burden of flu CDC and other public health agencies in the U.S. and other countries use statistical models to estimate the annual number of seasonal flu-related cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. CDC Source here._

Personally, I trust the CDC has fairly accurate models as they have been doing it a long time.  But I think the modeling will get tripped up this year due to COVID and many deaths being possibly co-related, or excluded from flu if tested positive for COVID.


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> Personally, I trust the CDC has fairly accurate models as they have been doing it a long time.



I would normally agree with you but if we are comparing actual C19 deaths against a mathematical estimate of flu deaths, then something is wrong. The actual flu deaths on the graph I posted are also from the CDC. 

I am sadly convinced that the actual deaths from C19 will ultimately be a lot higher than the numbers we have been seeing of late.


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## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> I can't think of even one nation that was prepared for this pandemic, regardless of how many scientists there were.



Taiwan.


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## MrockStar (May 4, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> I can't think of even one nation that was prepared for this pandemic, regardless of how many scientists there were.
> 
> Now, should you wish to discuss your last line and this isn't deleted sometime during the night, we can proceed. Something tells me though, by the last comment in and of itself, you've crossed a dangerous line. One that the moderators are not fond of it seems. As for me though and it remains, I'm game.


Mongolia seems to be doing pretty well.


----------



## davidvel (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> I would normally agree with you but if we are comparing actual C19 deaths against a mathematical estimate of flu deaths, then something is wrong. The actual flu deaths on the graph I posted are also from the CDC.
> 
> I am sadly convinced that the actual deaths from C19 will ultimately be a lot higher than the numbers we have been seeing of late.
> 
> ...


I agree, but if we are comparing actual flu tested deaths with actual covid testing deaths, then something is wrong there as well.  The testing regimens (and % of respiratory deaths tested) are not comparable at all.


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> I agree, but if we are comparing actual flu tested deaths with actual covid testing deaths, then something is wrong there as well. The testing regimens (and % of respiratory deaths tested) are not comparable at all.



It’s definitely not perfect, which is why I think we will ultimately learn the numbers are quite different than we think they are now.


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## Panina (May 4, 2020)

My head is spinning.  All these articles, charts, statistics, etc. and the reality is we are only guessing.  In the future, not now, we will be able to really know what worked and what didn’t.  Meanwhile the best assumption is to do what might be helpful to control the spread.


----------



## Ken555 (May 4, 2020)

France’s first Covid-19 case 'dates back to December', flu retest shows









						France’s first Covid-19 case 'dates back to December', flu retest shows
					

A doctor in the Paris region says one of his patients who was diagnosed with pneumonia in December was, in fact, infected with Covid-19. The report, which is due to be published in detail this week,…




					www.rfi.fr
				





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## Panina (May 4, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> France’s first Covid-19 case 'dates back to December', flu retest shows
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Doesn’t surprise me.  What I am curious about did this person also test positive for the flu?


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

davidvel said:


> This is because Flu deaths are not tracked like COVID-19 deaths. For the last month at least, all hospitalized patients with sever respiratory symptoms are being tested. Here's what CDC says about flu testing and modeling:
> 
> _CDC does not know the exact number of flu illnesses, flu-associated hospitalizations, or flu-associated deaths in adults for several reasons:
> 
> ...



Every time I try to make sense of the numbers there a lot of things I do not understand. The number of flu death estimates not only vary a lot from year to year (normal), they also change based on the method they use. The previous estimates were 3000 to 49,000, now they estimate 12,000 to 79,000. Given that the estimations seem so imprecise and that they may change again, how can we say Covid is *or* isn't like the flu? We also know the number of flu tests is a small fraction of the number of Covid tests so the flu numbers may not capture more than a tiny fraction of the reality. 

"The previous range used to describe influenza-related deaths, from 3,000 to 49,000, was based on data from 30 influenza seasons from 1976 through 2007 used in a statistical model (1). The range described in the tables above, 12,000 to 79,000, is based on data from the 2010-2011 through 2017-2018 influenza seasons using a different mathematical model. "





__





						Frequently Asked Questions about Estimated Flu Burden | CDC
					

Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Cornell (May 4, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Every time I try to make sense of the numbers there a lot of things I do not understand. The number of flu death estimates not only vary a lot from year to year (normal), they also change based on the method they use. The previous estimates were 3000 to 49,000, now they estimate 12,000 to 79,000. Given that the estimations seem so imprecise and that they may change again, how can we say Covid is *or* isn't like the flu? We also know the number of flu tests is a small fraction of the number of Covid tests so the flu numbers may not capture more than a tiny fraction of the reality.
> 
> "The previous range used to describe influenza-related deaths, from 3,000 to 49,000, was based on data from 30 influenza seasons from 1976 through 2007 used in a statistical model (1). The range described in the tables above, 12,000 to 79,000, is based on data from the 2010-2011 through 2017-2018 influenza seasons using a different mathematical model. "
> 
> ...


Agreed. I was just looking at the latest CDC model that estimates 3k COVID deaths per day at 6/1. I have so many questions and confusion about it that I’m just throwing up up hands and saying “I give up”.


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

Panina said:


> Doesn’t surprise me.  What I am curious about did this person also test positive for the flu?


He tested negative for the flu. Also, the guy only traveled in August 2019 so he must have gotten it in France so he was not the first case. The outbreak must have started in France mid-December at the latest. 


"One sample was positive taken from a 42 year old man born in Algeria, who lived in France for many years, and worked as a fishmonger," the team wrote. "His last trip was in Algeria during August 2019."

The man had not been to China, and one of his children had also been sick, also, the team reported.









						French doctors say they found a COVID-19 patient from December
					

Doctors at a Paris hospital say they've found evidence that one patient admitted in December was infected with COVID-19.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## DannyTS (May 4, 2020)

*"This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic."*









						Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic
					

This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the...




					www.medrxiv.org
				






			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1.full.pdf


----------



## T-Dot-Traveller (May 5, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> *"This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic."*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I am not a scientist - but the comments section to the article gives counterbalance to some  of the authors
assumptions .

Personally - my assumption is that many countries doing social distancing to full lockdowns - did so to prevent the overwhelming and possibly collapse of their medical systems . Lowering the death rate is a tangential reward.

I also assume that in WW II - USA /  Pacific War - military terms we are currently in early to mid 1942 .
January was December 6/- everyone was asleep - even though “signs were everywhere”
Feb & March were Dec. 7 - the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor

early to mid 1942 - was not a time to go back to “partying & normalacy “: / there was a war to win and
sacrifices were required .

Just an opinion .


----------



## DannyTS (May 5, 2020)

cman said:


> It sounds like you've fixated on an idea and are cherry picking and manufacturing information to support your position. I did see a news report that attributed a third of Sweden's deaths to nursing homes. I have not seen a report that "most" of their deaths were in senior care facilities.



I did see reports before that over 50% of the deaths in Sweden were in nursing homes, I just do not find them now. Maybe I was wrong but I do not think so, I remember reading about this few weeks ago. The current data is *44.8%* of all people who died with Covid in Stockholm were living in a senior care facility. "Manufacturing information" is a very strong statement IMO, especially in an environment where what we read today may be invalidated tomorrow. Maybe I should have said "half" or a "a good proportion" but the reality is that a lot of those that died in Sweden did live in a nursing home.

"Of 1,406 people who have died in the Stockholm region from covid-19, 630 people have been sampled at a SÄBO." (Google translation)



			https://www.sll.se/verksamhet/halsa-och-vard/nyheter-halsa-och-vard/2020/04/30-april-lagesrapport-om-arbetet-med-det-n


----------



## Brett (May 5, 2020)

T-Dot-Traveller said:


> I am not a scientist - but the comments section to the article gives counterbalance to some  of the authors
> assumptions .
> 
> Personally - my assumption is that many countries doing social distancing to full lockdowns - did so to prevent the overwhelming and possibly collapse of their medical systems . Lowering the death rate is a tangential reward.
> ...



 in WW2 chronology we're only at 1942


----------



## Monykalyn (May 5, 2020)

Cornell said:


> This is really interesting. And confusing. So much conflicting advice.
> 
> Given that it’s not definitive, why do you think “mask laws” are being put in place?


 Makes one feel like they are "doing something"-and that may have a positive effect too.  I haven't looked up the study that showed surgical masks for OR teams doesn't reduce infection post-op; wondering how they determined that? Sometimes we do stuff just because "it's always done that way" and it takes a huge huge huge amount of time and evidence to slooooowly turn that ship. At the very least I hope we do get more and much better studies on masks and effectiveness. We need good PPE and evidence backing up what works and works well.   Catching the large "snot droplets" (I grossed myself out just typing that lol) is great-but if the filtration part of catching the super small particles doesn't work, then it's almost pointless to wear a face covering at all-and I can see how it would be worse: at least using a tissues, turning your head to not be directed at people around you and using your hand holding the tissues tight to your face your hand also acts as an impervious physical barrier. Of course that also means super good hand sanitizing should take place. Judging by the run on hand sanitizer and soap this apparently was not taking place before 


Ken555 said:


> France’s first Covid-19 case 'dates back to December', flu retest shows
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting-was just watching a news blurb about Cambridge scientists doing a genetic tracing analysis (or something like that??) that shows the virus may have been circulating in southern China (Not Wuhan) since September.  Which makes me wonder if we are in the Second wave now.  Also if the virus is starting to mutate like SARS-1 to become much less deadly (like the very preliminary finding in Arizona)


----------



## Ken555 (May 5, 2020)

> If you look at the country minus NY, from April 25 to May 1, cases have GROWN from 24,322 to 28,437. So outside of NY, positive cases are increasing by 17% per week. Even if case growth doesn’t go up, that would put us over 50,000 new cases every day outside of NY by Memorial Day.





> Covid-19 hasn’t stopped being infectious just because we’ve socially isolated. Nothing magic happened while we were home.
> 
> Pick a part of the country that hasn’t done social distancing in April, prisons. The Bureau of Prisons just tested 2,000 prisoners and found 70% tested positive. In addition to being ashamed, we should be warned. The virus has gone nowhere. It is waiting us out.





> The point here isn’t that May will be bad. That’s up to us, not our politicians. The point is we won’t really know until June.











						Relaxing All Social Distancing Behaviors Now Is a Huge Mistake
					

The consequences of our actions in May won’t be felt until June




					medium.com
				





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## pedro47 (May 5, 2020)

This is one wish, that I pray that all the experts are wrong. I am sick of the coronavirus and social distancing.


----------



## TravelTime (May 5, 2020)

A new paper by MIT researchers says that targeted lockdowns minimize deaths and economic losses.



			https://www.nber.org/papers/w27102.pdf
		


A few findings from the study:

For the same economic cost (24.3% decline in GDP), optimal semi–targeted or fully-targeted policies reduce mortality from 1.83% to 0.71% (thus, saving 2.7 million lives) relative to optimal uniform policies. 

Overall, targeted policies that are combined with measures that reduce interactions between groups and increase testing and isolation of the infected can minimize both economic losses and deaths in our model.


----------



## Pathways (May 5, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> This phenomenological study





DannyTS said:


> reports before that over 50% of the deaths in Sweden





Monykalyn said:


> news blurb about Cambridge scientists





TravelTime said:


> A new paper by MIT researchers



No matter what side of the fence we all see this lock down, I think we can all agree that there is currently 0 % unemployment with  'academics' who write papers.


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## DannyTS (May 5, 2020)

Pathways said:


> No matter what side of the fence we all see this lock down, I think we can all agree that there is currently 0 % unemployment with  'academics' who write papers.


I agree, they may even get a bonus for working overtime. They will contradict themselves in a week but that is OK, they can claim they worked overtime again


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## MrockStar (May 5, 2020)

Pathways said:


> No matter what side of the fence we all see this lock down, I think we can all agree that there is currently 0 % unemployment with  'academics' who write papers.


Ad reporters and Politicians to the list.


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## Pathways (May 5, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Politicians



Not going to touch that one!



MrockStar said:


> reporters



Actually many reporters (print) are out of work.  Our major metro paper is down to I think TWO sports reporters, and a lot of the beat reporters are laid off. They have absolutely NO ad revenue coming in.

Even the TV stations are laying off.  They had a BANNER year going with all the political ad buys.  Now - nothing

There are so many freelance 'reporters' out there doing content for free, (and it's worth even less) that no one wants to pay someone a salary to write.


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## MrockStar (May 5, 2020)

Pathways said:


> Not going to touch that one!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I worked at a news paper for 13 years Maintenance, (Press, sorters conveyors) so yes understand that since ALL sports where canceled that it Affected sports writers and reporters and i feel bad for them and their family so no slights there intentionally.


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## Brett (May 6, 2020)

MrockStar said:


> Ad reporters and Politicians to the list.



actually the pandemic is bad for newspapers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/life...6f54a8-7818-11ea-9bee-c5bf9d2e3288_story.html

and it could be bad for some "politicians" !


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## DannyTS (May 6, 2020)

when you are WP and you are owned by Jeff Bezos you do not have to worry about that.


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## DannyTS (May 6, 2020)

The lockdown rules are not for everyone: "A British scientist who worked with the government on its coronavirus response resigned from his advisory role Tuesday after a media report said he defied lockdown measures by letting a woman visit him on two occasions. Neil Ferguson, a professor at Imperial College in London, stepped down from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the body that advises the government in emergencies.  "

*








						UK scientist who pushed coronavirus restrictions resigns after reportedly meeting married lover
					

A British scientist who worked with the government on its coronavirus response resigned from his advisory role Tuesday after a report said he defied lockdown measures by letting a woman visit him on two occasions.




					www.foxnews.com
				



*


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## DannyTS (May 6, 2020)

[Quote of deleted post removed]
No, I did not mean that, I am sure many if not most journalists [at the Washington Post] are hard working,  smart and honest. But I had to note that they are not starving during Covid 19, it is impossible to judge things exactly the same as a journalist who may be on unemployment soon due to this situation. Of course the WP also has an editorial bias, that has to be taken into account as well.


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## Monykalyn (May 6, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> A new paper by MIT researchers says that targeted lockdowns minimize deaths and economic losses.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting and I think is incorporated in the "phases of opening"? However-while I completely agree with doing what we can to minimize illness/death in the "old" group-has anyone asked or done a poll just among that group if they want to be "locked down until a vaccine available" if that means 2 years of NOT seeing family?? It's very easy for an armchair executive to say 'keep them safe' and quite another to actually LIVE in perpetual lockdown (or what may seem like it to the 99 year old who can no longer see her great grandkids etc). Please note I am in NO way saying "let the old be killed off" - rather we need to be considerate of their feelings and needs and wants as well. I can say anecdotally I have many residents who are about to rebel and demand to see family -in person-soon.


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## davidvel (May 6, 2020)

Thanks all for raising socially contentious  and political issues. You can't help yourself can you?


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## PigsDad (May 6, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Interesting and I think is incorporated in the "phases of opening"? However-while I completely agree with doing what we can to minimize illness/death in the "old" group-has anyone asked or done a poll just among that group if they want to be "locked down until a vaccine available" if that means 2 years of NOT seeing family?? It's very easy for an armchair executive to say 'keep them safe' and quite another to actually LIVE in perpetual lockdown (or what may seem like it to the 99 year old who can no longer see her great grandkids etc). Please note I am in NO way saying "let the old be killed off" - rather we need to be considerate of their feelings and needs and wants as well. I can say anecdotally I have many residents who are about to rebel and demand to see family -in person-soon.


That is a good question.  For a good percentage of people who are 75+ years old, two years _*is *_the rest of their life.

Kurt


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## Brett (May 6, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Interesting and I think is incorporated in the "phases of opening"? However-while I completely agree with doing what we can to minimize illness/death in the "old" group-has anyone asked or done a poll just among that group if they want to be "locked down until a vaccine available" if that means 2 years of NOT seeing family?? It's very easy for an armchair executive to say 'keep them safe' and quite another to actually LIVE in perpetual lockdown (or what may seem like it to the 99 year old who can no longer see her great grandkids etc). Please note I am in NO way saying "let the old be killed off" - rather we need to be considerate of their feelings and needs and wants as well. I can say anecdotally I have many residents who are about to rebel and demand to see family -in person-soon.



well, you can. 
grandchildren can see grandpa from 6 feet away outside the nursing home door  (or thru a window)
We plan to do that with my 99 year old mother in an assisted living facility


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## Monykalyn (May 6, 2020)

Brett said:


> well, you can.
> grandchildren can see grandpa from 6 feet away outside the nursing home door  (or thru a window)
> We plan to do that with my 99 year old mother in an assisted living facility


And some are definitely doing that. I have one home that a parade of the therapuetic dogs do a "parade" outside the windows too. And the residents do enjoy that for sure!! But it doesn't replace an actual touch.  You know they did studies on babies in orphanges-perfectly fed, and physical needs met, but never held and cuddled and those babies didn't do as well or had severe emotional issues. Why would we expect our 99 year old grandmother would be ok with no human touch for years? It is literally built into our brains for health.


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## Ken555 (May 6, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> And some are definitely doing that. I have one home that a parade of the therapuetic dogs do a "parade" outside the windows too. And the residents do enjoy that for sure!! But it doesn't replace an actual touch. You know they did studies on babies in orphanges-perfectly fed, and physical needs met, but never held and cuddled and those babies didn't do as well or had severe emotional issues. Why would we expect our 99 year old grandmother would be ok with no human touch for years? It is literally built into our brains for health.



Yes. I see a lot of complaints about the inability to touch or get within social distancing of others. I’m still waiting to read a solution which will protect everyone involved in such circumstances short of a vaccine. Anyone?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## WVBaker (May 6, 2020)

PPE


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## Brett (May 6, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> And some are definitely doing that. I have one home that a parade of the therapuetic dogs do a "parade" outside the windows too. And the residents do enjoy that for sure!! But it doesn't replace an actual touch.  You know they did studies on babies in orphanges-perfectly fed, and physical needs met, but never held and cuddled and those babies didn't do as well or had severe emotional issues. Why would we expect our 99 year old grandmother would be ok with no human touch for years? It is literally built into our brains for health.



I'm not sure if my mother has suffered this past month without family "human touch" but if that goes on for several years, yes, it could be a problem
We've done the "FaceTime"app every week,  we'll see if the 6' distance meeting helps


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## davidvel (May 6, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> Yes. I see a lot of complaints about the inability to touch or get within social distancing of others. I’m still waiting to read a solution which will protect everyone involved in such circumstances short of a vaccine. Anyone?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


You asked:


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## DannyTS (May 6, 2020)

new interview with Dr Erickson... before youtube deletes it


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## Ken555 (May 6, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> What I do know is that a lot of doctors have started to question the official narrative. If you do not believe me look around you and see that many governors (both D &R) are slowly opening the country despite of what we were told 2-3 weeks ago.



Since when did politicians always act in accordance with accepted science or medical recommendations?

Don’t reach any conclusions about certain states opening up as validation of these fringe concepts. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Brett (May 6, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> new interview with Dr Erickson... before youtube deletes it



oh yes
click on the youtube symbol in the video and find out *who uploads* this video !!!!

google the person -  wikipedia !


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## DannyTS (May 6, 2020)

Millions predicted to develop tuberculosis as result of Covid-19 lockdown 
With attention focused on coronavirus, undiagnosed and untreated TB cases will cause 1.4 million to die, research suggests










						Millions predicted to develop tuberculosis as result of Covid-19 lockdown
					

Undiagnosed and untreated cases will cause 1.4 million to die of the disease as all the world’s eyes are on the coronavirus response




					www.theguardian.com


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## Panina (May 6, 2020)

I have logically tried to think this out.  This is how I see it, real simple.

  We have a virus that can kill many more people

  We do not have a vaccine or treatment for all and really cannot be 100% sure they will come or when.

  Our economy cannot wait for the vaccine or treatment.

  Extending sip got the numbers lower but once removed the cases will go up. The virus did not go away. 

  The government asking us to wear masks, maintain distance, not gather and wash hand often are precautions that many are not following nor can we    Police them to.

  The reality is we have to live with this risk the best way we can, this is how life will be for now.

  Each of us has a choice on following guidelines, which stores we will go to and if we will take care of our health physically (eg, going to doctors, outdoor for walks, etc) and mentally.

  So much is still not known. Most information out there are educated guesses. History will let us know what was right and what was wrong.

There is still a possibility the health system will get overwhelmed in certain areas.


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## Brett (May 6, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Millions predicted to develop tuberculosis as result of Covid-19 lockdown
> With attention focused on coronavirus, undiagnosed and untreated TB cases will cause 1.4 million to die, research suggests
> 
> 
> ...



worldwide "millions" and millions will die a horrible tuberculosis death ...
..............  in the USA  .....  how many this year?

"We don’t have a vaccine for TB,   we don’t have a vaccine for HIV,   we don’t have a vaccine for malaria and out of all this, TB is the oldest. So why this reaction? I think because we are living in a world of idiots. "


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## Panina (May 7, 2020)

66 percent of the state's new coronavirus patients were sheltering in place at home before seeking medical attention 









						Cuomo surprised most NY coronavirus hospitalizations are people who stayed at home
					

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced on Wednesday that 66 percent of the state's new coronavirus patients were sheltering in place at home before seeking medical attention.




					www.foxnews.com


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## VacationForever (May 7, 2020)

Brett said:


> worldwide "millions" and millions will die a horrible tuberculosis death ...
> ..............  in the USA  .....  how many this year?
> 
> "We don’t have a vaccine for TB,   we don’t have a vaccine for HIV,   we don’t have a vaccine for malaria and out of all this, TB is the oldest. So why this reaction? I think because we are living in a world of idiots. "


We have a vaccine for TB, and it is called BCG.  Many countries innoculate children as part of standard mandatory childhood vaccinations.  Once a person has BCG, the Mantoux test will show positive for antibodies.  But protection against TB wanes through time.  It can be retaken to boost antibodies in the system.


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## DannyTS (May 7, 2020)

deleted


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## DannyTS (May 7, 2020)

why is the number of deaths so high in th UK?








						Zerohedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com


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## Brett (May 7, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> why is the number of deaths so high in th UK?



probably due to:

- government inaction
- testing delays
- delays in starting lockdowns
- underlying health conditions - smoking, age, etc

*https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths*
*https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11394866/why-coronavirus-death-rate-uk-high-compared-europe/*


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## DannyTS (May 7, 2020)

Brett said:


> probably due to:
> 
> - government inaction
> - testing delays
> ...


like that frail 98 year old whose family was surprised to see she was a covid "victim"


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## Brett (May 7, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> like that frail 98 year old whose family was surprised to see she was a covid "victim"



it's a HUGE conspiracy


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## DannyTS (May 7, 2020)

@Brett  I encourage you to become a member of TUG if you enjoy it, it is not expensive, 15$ per year, 30$ for 3 years


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## Brett (May 7, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> @Brett  I encourage you to become a member of TUG if you enjoy it, it is not expensive, 15$ per year, 30$ for 3 years



I might    ....   I rent timeshares, not own
being a TUG member automatically bumps up a few IQ points .... right ?


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## DannyTS (May 7, 2020)

Brett said:


> I might    ....   I rent timeshares, not own
> being a TUG member automatically bumps up a few IQ points .... right ?


You got it


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## DannyTS (May 7, 2020)

An interesting point of view from doctor JOHN MANDROLA, MD.










						Can We Discuss  Flatten-the-Curve in COVID19? My Eight  Assertions
					

On Telehealth, an older couple asked me a tough question about COVID19. They asked whether this virus would either be gone or less dangerous in 6 months to a year. It was a curious question. I repl…



					www.drjohnm.org


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## Monykalyn (May 8, 2020)

Brett said:


> we'll see if the 6' distance meeting helps


Oh I really hope it does Bet she is looking forward to that too.


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## Ken555 (May 8, 2020)

This short video is very interesting. It shows an example of how interconnected we are by following mobile phones from one beach in Florida...worth a minute of your time to watch.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1242628347034767361

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## MrockStar (May 8, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> This short video is very interesting. It shows an example of how interconnected we are by following mobile phones from one beach in Florida...worth a minute of your time to watch.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1242628347034767361
> ...


Big brother is watching !@#$%


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## dsmrp (May 9, 2020)

A re-quote from my nurse manager friend:

"The end of stay-at-home orders doesn't mean the pandemic is over. It means they currently have room for you in the ICU."


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## dsmrp (May 9, 2020)

Hospitals want to get back to regular business too. Generally most have spent a lot of $$ gearing & setting up for COVID. Elective surgery, which was put on hold,  is a significant part of their revenue. Like other businesses, some may not survive.


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