# [2008] Newport Coast Villas Resale Prices Falling



## Dewnay (Oct 15, 2008)

I've been following the eBay auctions for NCV. An annual Platinum week sold today for $12,600 and another sold on Oct. 6 for $11,901.

If Marriott is truly not exercising ROFR anymore, this is a huge drop from the $17K-$18K prices that I was seeing only a few months ago.

Am I correct in thinking that this freefall will continue if Marriott does not reinstate their exercise of ROFR?

D.


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## dioxide45 (Oct 15, 2008)

Dewnay said:


> I've been following the eBay auctions for NCV. An annual Platinum week sold today for $12,600 and another sold on Oct. 6 for $11,901.
> 
> If Marriott is truly not exercising ROFR anymore, this is a huge drop from the $17K-$18K prices that I was seeing only a few months ago.
> 
> ...



The price is driven by supply and demand not ROFR. There are the same number if not more weeks available on the resale market but there is a far smaller demand in today's market which would drive prices down. Marriott not exercising ROFR will make that great price even better because you get to actually buy at that price.


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## jerseyfinn (Oct 15, 2008)

Folks who are desperate to sell now and not later are gonna create their own momentum which pushes prices downwards ( on top of the bad economy/market). Don't read more than that into what's going on. It's a bad market at the moment, plain and simple. Patient sellers will set a price which is 60% or more of current developer prices for a gold or platinum week and they will sit there and wait it out. I've got an Ocean Pointe week up for sale. I'm getting mostly scam responses but also a few inquiries from brokers who are fishing around for a low-ball price.  I'm not biting as I've set my price and I will patiently wait things out. Worst case scenerio is that I'll have to get off my butt next March and go to Ocean Pointe. I'm also listed with Marriott resales. I'm not expecting miracles, but as the Rolling Stones say, _time is on my side_.  

Keep in mind that E-Bay is a free-for-all market. One can not predict what any TS will really fetch there because the market depends upon a finite number of bidders.  A lot of bidders might help to push the price up . . . it's partly a matter of timing. But it is definitely a buyers market at the moment and as *dioxide *suggests, there are some bargains to be had.

As to ROFR. It's in your purchase contract when you buy.  ROFR has *always* been contingent upon the words "may exercise" ROFR. It's always been an option ( not a promise or obligation ) for Marriott to exercise. Presently, in this rancid economy, Marriott is allowing some weeks that it has tended to exercise ROFR to pass by. It's just the other side of "may", no more , no less. Looks like smart business to me at the moment. But when this economy settles down ( months to a few years ), those words "may" could be interpreted differently again by Marriott.

These times are a good reminder ( warning?) to folks that timeshare was, is, and will always be about destination travel. One purchases, plans, and utilizes timeshare with this in mind. Those MFs may weigh heavy upon some in this tough economy, but when you're sitting on the beach at your resort, you're temporarily removed from the tough times we all face. Just got back from Spain and we're still satisfied owners.  It'll be a while before the economy takes away the lustre of our trip.

Hang in there.

Barry


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## cp73 (Oct 15, 2008)

Dewnay said:


> If Marriott is truly not exercising ROFR anymore, this is a huge drop from the $17K-$18K prices that I was seeing only a few months ago.
> Am I correct in thinking that this freefall will continue if Marriott does not reinstate their exercise of ROFR?
> D.



Even if Marriott did exercise their ROFR that wont impact the final selling price. It will only change who the end purchaser is. Marriott is overloaded now with inventory they can't sell. Don't count on this changing for a while. When economic times are tough the travel/leisure industy is always hard hit.


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## MOXJO7282 (Oct 15, 2008)

Dewnay said:


> I've been following the eBay auctions for NCV. An annual Platinum week sold today for $12,600 and another sold on Oct. 6 for $11,901.
> 
> If Marriott is truly not exercising ROFR anymore, this is a huge drop from the $17K-$18K prices that I was seeing only a few months ago.
> 
> ...



I don't believe these got past the reserve, did they? If not, technically they weren't sales. The lowest that I seen pass reserve lately is $13999.

Ebay to me is not a great indicator of the average sale price, so i don't know how much stock you can put in the ebay sales.

Regards.
Joe


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## vacationtime1 (Oct 15, 2008)

MOXJO7282 said:


> I don't believe these got past the reserve, did they? If not, technically they weren't sales. The lowest that I seen pass reserve lately is $13999.
> 
> Ebay to me is not a great indicator of the average sale price, so i don't know how much stock you can put in the ebay sales.
> 
> ...



No reserve; here's the link:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=350106678141&ssPageName=STRK:MEWA:IT&ih=022

I agree that the price is about 25% lower than NCV sold for six months ago.  It may be that the seller has no choice but to sell at any price (loss of job, death, divorce, etc.).  But a sale at this price exacerbates the apparent freefall in prices, and Marriott's non-exercise of ROFR does the same.


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## Dewnay (Oct 15, 2008)

vacationtime1 said:


> No reserve; here's the link:
> 
> http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=350106678141&ssPageName=STRK:MEWA:IT&ih=022
> 
> I agree that the price is about 25% lower than NCV sold for six months ago.  It may be that the seller has no choice but to sell at any price (loss of job, death, divorce, etc.).  But a sale at this price exacerbates the apparent freefall in prices, and Marriott's non-exercise of ROFR does the same.



Here's the other one. It also had no reserve:

http://cgi.ebay.com/MARRIOTT-NEWPOR...39:1|66:2|65:13|240:1318&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14


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## Green Eyed Hapa (Oct 15, 2008)

Ok, so I'm confused. I check NCV sales too on ebay. I type in Newport Coast Villas under "all categories" and the current inventory , including rentals and sales comes up. Then I go to the left side of the screen and go to "completed Listings", type in my ebay act. info and the recently completed transactions pop up. I just did this and rental and sales from Oct. 6 - Oct 13 came up.

Below is the ONLY recent sale/non-sale (Reserve Not Met) on Oct. 13th:

MARRIOTT'S NEWPORT COAST VILLAS CALIFORNIA TIMESHARE(Reserve not met)
2Bd/2Ba Annual Platinum! II Premier Ocean/Beach Resort 
View similar active items | Sell one like this  26 Bids $12,099.00
$15,199.00  Oct-13 19:00 [/COLOR]

Ther were also 2 SOLD rentals on Oct. 5th & 6th.

Where did you go to find these other sales?

Thanks.


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## dioxide45 (Oct 15, 2008)

greeneyeshapa@gmail.com said:


> Ok, so I'm confused. I check NCV sales too on ebay. I type in Newport Coast Villas under "all categories" and the current inventory , including rentals and sales comes up. Then I go to the left side of the screen and go to "completed Listings", type in my ebay act. info and the recently completed transactions pop up. I just did this and rental and sales from Oct. 6 - Oct 13 came up.
> 
> Below is the ONLY recent sale/non-sale (Reserve Not Met) on Oct. 13th:
> 
> ...



I see them by searching for Marriott as the keyword in the Real Estate category and completed listings.


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## JimIg23 (Oct 15, 2008)

Great time to buy.  I would not sell now unless it was an emergency.  Same advise I would give someone considering buying or selling a home.  I think prices will go back up.


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## tombo (Oct 15, 2008)

Here are a couple of ads to watch or bid on for NCV.

http://cgi.ebay.com/MARRIOTTS-NEWPO...39:1|66:2|65:12|240:1309&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14

http://cgi.ebay.com/MARRIOTT-NEWPOR...39:1|66:2|65:12|240:1318&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14

http://cgi.ebay.com/MARRIOTT-NEWPOR...39:1|66:2|65:12|240:1318&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14


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## Dewnay (Oct 15, 2008)

greeneyeshapa@gmail.com said:


> Ok, so I'm confused. I check NCV sales too on ebay. I type in Newport Coast Villas under "all categories" and the current inventory , including rentals and sales comes up. Then I go to the left side of the screen and go to "completed Listings", type in my ebay act. info and the recently completed transactions pop up. I just did this and rental and sales from Oct. 6 - Oct 13 came up.
> 
> Below is the ONLY recent sale/non-sale (Reserve Not Met) on Oct. 13th:
> 
> ...



Search using the keywords: Marriott* Newport Coast

Then click on "Completed Listings" on the left side of the page.

The asterisk (*) is a wildcard for searches that picks up Marriott, Marriott's, and Marriotts


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## camachinist (Dec 11, 2008)

There's a new ad on Redweek for fixed week 26 (July 4th week) for 16.5K asking. Same seller also has week 52 for 13.5K. Broker is TransAction Realty.

IIRC, developer on July 4 is 40K. Also, both weeks allow for floating reservations in Platinum season, if the owner so desires.

Can it go any lower? 

Pat


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## CaliDave (Dec 11, 2008)

camachinist said:


> Can it go any lower?
> 
> Pat



I said the same thing about Citibank, Goldman Sachs, GE --- all great companies..  down , down  down..

I wouldn't buy a house right now, much less an expensive timeshare. 

I'd look at housing in 6-9 months (at least in California) and timeshares will be depressed for years to come. Heck, resale timeshares were depressed in the good times


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## myip (Dec 11, 2008)

camachinist said:


> There's a new ad on Redweek for fixed week 26 (July 4th week) for 16.5K asking. Same seller also has week 52 for 13.5K. Broker is TransAction Realty.
> 
> IIRC, developer on July 4 is 40K. Also, both weeks allow for floating reservations in Platinum season, if the owner so desires.
> 
> ...


I am tempted to buy but I can't justify another timeshare and worry it will go down further.


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## camachinist (Dec 11, 2008)

> I wouldn't buy a house right now, much less an expensive timeshare.



Generally I would agree, but markets can be very specific. The REO my wife picked up cost us 1/3 of what it sold for in 2005 (actual sale) and only has needed minor cosmetic work. IMO, in our market, as these REO's sit longer and longer, they'll deteriorate (and I've actually seen this, due to system failures/vandalism/theft, while we've been looking) and the selection process will become more difficult.

I think, again market-specific, NCV is pretty close to bottomed out, save for a complete economic failure. As long as "normal" folks like myself can still afford MF's and people continue to take conus vacations, SoCal will remain a popular landing spot and, nearly surely, there will be no new timeshares built in the Newport/OC area now, preserving NCV's value (at the obviously depreciated state it's currently at).

Time will tell


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## dougp26364 (Dec 11, 2008)

dioxide45 said:


> The price is driven by supply and demand not ROFR. There are the same number if not more weeks available on the resale market but there is a far smaller demand in today's market which would drive prices down. Marriott not exercising ROFR will make that great price even better because you get to actually buy at that price.




I  strange sort of way I agree with you. Since Marriott is no longer participateing in the resale market, the largest buyer of resale units isn't there anymore. Thus, supply is now higher than demand and prices have fallen. You're no longer having to compete with Marriott as a buyer and now is a great time to buy another week resale if you're so inclined. It's not the lack of ROFR that's causing prices to fall. It's the lack of someone (or a corporation) willing to compete for those units on the resale market that has driven the price down.


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## Cathyb (Dec 11, 2008)

Wasn't there some rumble about timeshares being built across the street at that new development?


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## Bill4728 (Dec 11, 2008)

Cathyb said:


> Wasn't there some rumble about timeshares being built across the street at that new development?


Pelican Hill is the golf course across the street from NCV. they have built a very nice club house that has a nice restaurant. Also they have built some condo like units which they are renting out. 

I didn't think they were doing TS.


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## Kokonut (Dec 13, 2008)

camachinist said:


> There's a new ad on Redweek for fixed week 26 (July 4th week) for 16.5K asking.



I'm surprised to see a Platinum Plus available for that price. When I called the Sales Office at Newport Coast in October, they had no fixed week 26 units available. My guess is that it would be snatched up by ROFR to be used for inventory.

Kokonut


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## Kokonut (Dec 16, 2008)

camachinist said:


> There's a new ad on Redweek for fixed week 26 (July 4th week) for 16.5K asking. Same seller also has week 52 for 13.5K. Broker is TransAction Realty.
> 
> IIRC, developer on July 4 is 40K. Also, both weeks allow for floating reservations in Platinum season, if the owner so desires.
> 
> ...



These two weeks are now showing as "Sale Pending" on TransAction Realty's website. They sold in less than a week. I wonder what they went for.


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## jaym (Dec 17, 2008)

jerseyfinn said:


> These times are a good reminder ( warning?) to folks that timeshare was, is, and will always be about destination travel. One purchases, plans, and utilizes timeshare with this in mind. Those MFs may weigh heavy upon some in this tough economy, but when you're sitting on the beach at your resort, you're temporarily removed from the tough times we all face. Just got back from Spain and we're still satisfied owners.  It'll be a while before the economy takes away the lustre of our trip.
> Barry



Excellent point made about the reality of timeshare ownership. Like many other things, purchase decisions should be made after careful consideration regarding available resources, and the continued ability to maintain it.
If you can make the MF payments, afford travel expenses (i.e., flights, dining expenditures, entertainment), TS offers a wonderful "escape" from mundane and burdensome routines in our lives. Also, if you consider trade benefits and include things such as II member discounts, etc. owning a TS can buffer rising or undiscounted resort room rates. (ex. II exchange MSU using MMC home resort trade)
I know my family and I enjoy the trips and will cut back elsewhere to cover the travel expenses and MFs in our budget. Hope we all get through the tough times now and those ahead. Happy trails...


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## Dewnay (Jan 23, 2009)

*Newport Coast Villas Resale Prices Rising*

This Platinum NCV sold on eBay tonight for *$17,814*!

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110338426089


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## Zac495 (Jan 23, 2009)

JimIg23 said:


> Great time to buy.  I would not sell now unless it was an emergency.  Same advise I would give someone considering buying or selling a home.  I think prices will go back up.



Agreed. I have my units listed, but will not sell for less than my bottom line. I will wait it out. I believe the units will go back up in price (may be 3 years) but I'm not throwing away thousands. Now, if I were sure I never wanted to vacation again, that would be an entirely different story...


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## pwrshift (Jan 23, 2009)

Dewnay said:


> This Platinum NCV sold on eBay tonight for *$17,814*!
> 
> http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110338426089


 
When I bought a week in Canyon Villas 2-years early on pre-construction in 2002 for about $17k incl. a half million MR points, the sales rep said he could sell me a week at NCV for just under $20k with the same number of points ... and then I could then book two prime weeks in a row 13 months ahead and travel the world in style on the million MR points. I probably would have bought NCV as well, had I not bought Manor Club Sequel the prev. year which came with another half million points. So MCV is still my orphan. 

Those low pre-construction prices didn't last long but original buyers who picked them up haven't done too badly with resale prices, especially considering the value of those huge MR incentives at the time. Properly spent, those MR points would have bought classy travel 'value' near or more than the cost of the TS. One has only to look at the thread on those who cashed in their MR points for some wonderful upcoming trips they planned for this year before the Jan15/09 devaluation.

I guess what I'm saying is that the resale prices today of NCV is less than what original buyers paid, but the MR incentives more than made up that shortfall. Good timing. Those who purchased more recently didn't do as well expecially if they have to sell during economic pressure, perhaps just to get out from the annual MF obligation.

I'm with those who say 'hang on to them' and enjoy them. Nothing wrong with having to take a beachfront holiday in March if your unit doesn't sell -- someday it will. As an original buyer at BeachPlace I was offered pre-construction plat weeks with MR points at Ocean Pointe for $13k - still kick myself for not buying. 

With or without MR points, most of us purchased our TS for personal family use, to enjoy for many years and to pass on to our kids. That's priceless as long as you continue to enjoy what you already own. With snow piled up taller than my car on the streets here, I can't wait to get to my Fort Lauderdale ocean view balcony for 4 weeks from mid Feb., as I have done for years without ever regretting my purchase.

Rather than buying another TS right now it might be time to buy MAR stock with your disposable cash ... it sells for $17 a share (up from $12 in Nov08), pays 2% dividend, and might get back to $35 in a year or two. Most of its TS owners like owning a Marriott, the company is well run and positioned, and has survived good and bad times. Here's part of Bill Marriott's blog back in November:



> _"I've experienced eight downturns in my 52 years in business and we've always come out of them stronger and more competitive than when the trouble began."
> 
> "We're doing what we can to contain costs, keep our loyal customers and attract new ones. This will help preserve jobs for our people, which is a top priority for me and for all of us. We are anxious to support the communities where we operate. Our hotels generate thousands of jobs, millions of dollars in wages and tax receipts that the local governments need to pay for schools, police and fire departments. We're all connected and we're all in this together.
> 
> ...


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## MOXJO7282 (Jan 23, 2009)

Dewnay said:


> This Platinum NCV sold on eBay tonight for *$17,814*!
> 
> http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110338426089



This is a total aberration, as 2 others recently sold at $12500 and $13600, and that has been the price point on ebay for some time.  The difference with this one is the great 2009 summer week associated with it. 

That is the biggest mistake people make when selling a TS, not getting a good week to sell with it. I know I'll pay more, if a good week comes with it. When I purchase resale, I don't even want the week if none is assigned, because one downside of buying resale, is you usually get a bad first year week, because that is all that is left, by time you are the owner and you can request a week yourself. 

Taking all of these sales together and I think it does sugest pricing has stabilized because I bought my 3 NCVs for $16k, $14,7K, and $13.7 before the recession exploded and pricing fell to the $12.5-$13.5 range and has since leveled off, so that to me is a good sign.


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## Bill4728 (Jan 23, 2009)

MOXJO7282 said:


> That is the biggest mistake people make when selling a TS, not getting a good week to sell with it. I know I'll pay more, if a good week comes with it. When I purchase resale, I don't even want the week if none is assigned, because one downside of buying resale, is you usually get a bad first year week, because that is all that is left, by time you are the owner and you can request a week yourself.


Either sell with a good week already reserved or just sell with the note that your use begins the next year. (therefore the buyer would owe no MFs for this year)


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## m61376 (Jan 23, 2009)

Joe- What I've noticed over the last few weeks is that a month or two ago prices really seem to have plummeted more and that the last several Ebay auctions have a higher price point in general. The 17K is the highest I've noticed, but there have been a few in the 13 and 14K range, which would have been considered high. Obviously, there have been too few sales even on Ebay to characterize this as a trend, but it did hit me as being a bit curious.


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## fraser921 (Jan 25, 2009)

No one has money and their 401 ks are down 50 %..cash is tight and prices are in a free fall. I dont expect marriot to match anything

This obviouslyis a good time for a buyer with money and patience


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## MOXJO7282 (Jan 25, 2009)

fraser921 said:


> No one has money and their 401 ks are down 50 %..cash is tight and prices are in a free fall. I dont expect marriot to match anything
> 
> This obviouslyis a good time for a buyer with money and patience



What I am seeing is some prime Marriotts aren't in a free fall. I don't expect Marriott to match either.

Let's see what happens now that it appears Monday's business new is really bad.


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## scoccermom (Aug 30, 2013)

NCV Platinum prices have risen to 8 to 9K.  I think it may be still near the bottom.  I know we aren't supposed to look at timeshares as investments but does anyone know of one that actually appreciated?  Say it was bought at a resale price of 5K and went up to 10K?  Just curious.


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## DanCali (Sep 1, 2013)

scoccermom said:


> NCV Platinum prices have risen to 8 to 9K.  I think it may be still near the bottom.  I know we aren't supposed to look at timeshares as investments but does anyone know of one that actually appreciated?  Say it was bought at a resale price of 5K and went up to 10K?  Just curious.




I wouldn't count on appreciation but rental prices do provide a floor for the resale value. This is at least how I'd think of it as an "investment":

If you can buy a Platinum week at NCV for $10K (rounding numbers), you can reserve a summer week and rent it out for about $2200. That's a $1200 profit over the maintenance fees (+ taxes) of roughly $1000. So that $1200 profit is a 12% return on your $10K "investment" - that's not bad return these days. That's assuming you can actually reserve a summer week, but I've managed to do it 4 years in a row, pre- and post-DC, so it is doable.

Lower resale prices increase that 12% return so there is a limit to how much prices can go down since people will pay for a 12% return these days. Not to mention that, as recently as May, Marriott was offering owners $7300 for Platinum weeks (technically $6800 after a $500 processing fee) so you'd think a retail buyer would pay more than Marriott...

As for your question if I know of anyone who bought for $5K and it appreciated to $10K - not exactly, but I did buy my Starwood weeks 5 years ago significantly below eBay prices (it was a 5-figure price so it was meaningful) so I could probably still sell them for a profit today. I just got lucky with relatively uninformed or somewhat desperate sellers at the bottom of the recession.


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## scoccermom (Sep 2, 2013)

So if the ROI goes up wouldn't the price also go up?  Say you got the week and it rents and gives you a 12% return and two years later rents increase and your return is now $16%...wouldn't prices then follow by rising?


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## MOXJO7282 (Sep 2, 2013)

From what I can see on ebay over the last year or so and in my experience successfully renting these units  since 2008, is resale price all in is somewhere around $8500 and rental profit about $950.

The great thing about NCV is the demand for summer weeks is tremendous so that profit has been very consistent. We were there this past July for the first time and just loved the resort and the area so much its definitely going to be a place we will always own for these reasons.


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## DanCali (Sep 3, 2013)

scoccermom said:


> So if the ROI goes up wouldn't the price also go up?  Say you got the week and it rents and gives you a 12% return and two years later rents increase and your return is now $16%...wouldn't prices then follow by rising?



If rental prices increase that typically compensates for higher MFs so rental profits don't necessarily go up. 

More generally MFs going up is a huge barrier for prices going up, because when MFs are as high as rental prices, a timeshare becomes pretty cheap or worthless on the resale market.

But like Joe said - I have found rental prices to be very consistent (I price on the low end and get 15+ inquiries for each ad, most of which just offer my asking price) and MFs very stable at this resort.


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## camachinist (Sep 3, 2013)

IME, having rented NCV consistently in both seasons since 2004, rental prices are pretty flat, meaning they haven't appeared to track inflation/MF's that closely . IOW, looking at past rental receipts, I was renting July/August platinum for 2200-2300 back in 2004 and that's typical, or less, these days.  

If anything, Easter/Spring Break weeks have bloomed a bit in rental income and, considering how cheap Gold weeks go for these days, can be a better rental prospect than Platinum, considering rents versus maintenance fees/RE taxes versus prevailing resale pricing. 

I recently saw an annual Gold week sell on eBay for 3250 and absolutely zero people were interested in mine on Redweek for 5K when I test-marketed this season earlier this year. 3-4K was the typical offer. At that rate, currently seeing 1600-2000 for Easter weeks, at current MF's, that's a pretty good ROI. Since I bought developer, I'm not interested in selling, though perhaps in buying resale, but it's always nice to see what interest is really out there. Most of it was from brokers, based on the two test marketings I've done over the last couple years. 

I recently played chicken with an early September Platinum and couldn't shake it loose for even 1100, so it went to II. First time in a long time I failed to market but, then again, I also failed to secure a good reservation, so the market punished me, correctly. That underscores one factor limiting NCV Platinum resale prices, that being the brutally short desirable Platinum season, versus the deeded season. If anything would depress the prices/limit them from rising, IMO that would be it.


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