# Hawaii.  Go or No Go?



## fernow (Mar 18, 2020)

Say someone had a trip planned to Hawaii mid next month.  With Ige's "stay away for 30 days" request do you go or not go.

Assume said person's schedule is not all that flexible and re-scheduling is a problem.

A request vs a ban.  So far travel is NOT banned.

Must be someone out there with such a dilemma.


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## brp (Mar 18, 2020)

Our first of two trips to Hawaii is in May (then November). Were it next month, I'd go. We're basically isolated here in Santa Clara, so my chances of acquiring and bringing with me anything like this are very slim.

Also, inasmuch as current data suggest that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity from the standpoint of community transmission, that lowers the risk further.

Cheers.


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## DaveNV (Mar 18, 2020)

Consider what you plan to do when you arrive there.  Assuming you're not sick NOW, what happens if you are exposed along the way?  Symptoms take a few days to a few weeks to appear - then what?

In Hawaii, are the bars, restaurants, luaus, historical sites, public transportation, tour companies, and whatever else open or closed? How will you spend your time if they are?  If it's a "lay on the beach" kind of vacation, are the beaches open?  Hawaii beaches tend to get pretty busy, with visitors from all over the world, where people tend to be in fairly close contact with each other. What potential viruses are they bringing with them, or carrying away?

It's your call, certainly.  And chances are, things will be fine.  The question is, are you prepared to take that chance?

Dave


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## amy241 (Mar 18, 2020)

fernow said:


> Say someone had a trip planned to Hawaii mid next month.  With Ige's "stay away for 30 days" request do you go or not go.
> 
> Assume said person's schedule is not all that flexible and re-scheduling is a problem.
> 
> ...


Yes, we were scheduled to depart on April 24th for a 37 night trip to Hawaii involving 3 islands and 7 air segments. We have cancelled. It is not in the national interest to travel at this time when there is a pandemic going on. People are dying, tourists are spreading the contagion by continuing to travel despite the warnings. It was hard to pull the plug on the trip but I had to put my own selfish interests aside and do the right thing for the nation and others. They will never get control of this unless we stay at home, maintain social isolation, etc. Domestic travel is spreading Covid-19 to others and creating community spread in new areas.

Our schedule is not flexible either. It meant the difference between being able to go versus not go. We will not be able to go as a result of the pandemic. This requires sacrifices from everyone across all walks of life. We lost $2500 in MVC timeshare fees for our lost week at Marriott Ko Olina. I got nothing (beyond a late deposit week in II that is worthless).

Additionally, there is just too much uncertainty to make travel enjoyable for the foreseeable future. What happens if you are prevented from leaving? If you get sick and are forced to be quarantined - how much enjoyment would you get out of the trip? What happens if your flights are cancelled? It is coming.

No one likes to have their trip ruined, including myself. But we will never get control of the disease if we don’t stay essentially shelter in place and not aid in the spread by traveling.

Most of the Covid-19 cases in HI have been brought in by tourists. Please heed Gov. Ige’s request to help Hawaii in this time of need.


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## 1Kflyerguy (Mar 18, 2020)

brp said:


> Our first of two trips to Hawaii is in May (then November). Were it next month, I'd go. We're basically isolated here in Santa Clara, so my chances of acquiring and bringing with me anything like this are very slim.
> 
> Also, inasmuch as current data suggest that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity from the standpoint of community transmission, that lowers the risk further.
> 
> Cheers.



We are also booked for May, i have not canceled yet but i am definitely monitoring the situation.  

Its my understanding that all the bars and restaurants are closed.  In addition they are closing the state and county parks.  Not sure if that included the beaches, but i can see that it might. 

We are in San Jose, so same shelter in place situation as you...  

Going out to eat and relax is big part of our Hawaii trips,  if everything looks to be closed,  we will cancel and hope for things to clear up. 

maybe I would safer with the heat and humidity, but i am save my airfare and timeshare points for a trip with all the activities...


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## DebBrown (Mar 18, 2020)

Cancel.  It's painful but stay in isolation for everyone's sake.


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## brp (Mar 18, 2020)

1Kflyerguy said:


> We are also booked for May, i have not canceled yet but i am definitely monitoring the situation.
> 
> Its my understanding that all the bars and restaurants are closed.  In addition they are closing the state and county parks.  Not sure if that included the beaches, but i can see that it might.



Fair point. A trip next month will very likely be takeout-only, at best. May really not make sense to go next month. 3rd week of May, fingers crossed.



1Kflyerguy said:


> We are in San Jose, so same shelter in place situation as you...
> 
> Going out to eat and relax is big part of our Hawaii trips,  if everything looks to be closed,  we will cancel and hope for things to clear up.
> 
> maybe I would safer with the heat and humidity, but i am save my airfare and timeshare points for a trip with all the activities...



For us, as mundane as it may sound, a good bit of our travel is based on maintaining status, so we'd need these flights.  And this is for 3 airlines, although the third will be mostly done with one trip in December/January). Of course, I do expect accommodations for status to come rolling out soon, so it may not matter as much.

Cheers.


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## lynne (Mar 18, 2020)

We just has our first case here on the Big Island which was brought in by a tourist.  As most native Hawaiians are a high risk group (diabetes and high blood pressure) those of us who call this island home are very aware of our impact on others and have been staying home and not socializing.  All large retail stores are closing, the restaurants are either take out only or limiting their occupancy.  If you do not have to be here, please cancel as resources are limited.  We live in one of the most remote places on the planet and if this virus moves the way it is expected on the mainland, you will wipe out an entire population of 'at risk' people.


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## Luanne (Mar 18, 2020)

Things change day by day, sometimes minute by minute.  I don't even want to post the most recent lists I've seen as they could have changed by the time I post it. 

I do know Maui County closed all public restrooms (and the beach restrooms would be included as they are public).  I also saw that some beaches, Hapuna Beach on the Big Island among them, were closing down.


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## fernow (Mar 18, 2020)

Interesting discussion, as I thought it might be.  Stay away.  15 days (about the COVID19 incubation period)?  30 days?  60 days? TBD?

Currently it is more likely that at traveler from the Mainland has TB then COVID19 but no one WANTS to place anyone else at undo risk.  Key word being "undo".

We don't actually have travel plans for next month but were in the process of planning one and was curious on peoples perspective.  The trip we were looking at was in 28 days.  Any different from the 30 day Governor's request?

People still seem to be traveling to the islands from what I can tell otherwise and certainly the argument can be made that the economic risk of a national shutdown is real while the disease risk is speculative.   Disease risk generally plays better however.

Think I will keep an eye on things for a couple of weeks and see how it all plays out.

People are fascinating creatures.


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## Luanne (Mar 18, 2020)

fernow said:


> Interesting discussion, as I thought it might be.  Stay away.  15 days (about the COVID19 incubation period)?  30 days?  60 days? TBD?
> 
> Currently it is more likely that at traveler from the Mainland has TB then COVID19 but no one WANTS to place anyone else at undo risk.  Key word being "undo".
> 
> ...


One of my concerns about traveling during this time, or even a little later is.....what will be open?  Sure, I could get someplace, but what would be open and what would there be to do?  We have a trip planned to Seattle at the end of May and I'm sure we will cancel.  It's in a hotel so those reservations can be cancelled up to the last minute.  Flights are with Alaska Airlines and currently they are not relaxing their cancel and change policy that far out. So I'm waiting.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 18, 2020)

FWIW: I started a similar thread asking questions along this line - click here for that thread,


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 19, 2020)

With large cities like Seattle and NYC realizing lack of hospital beds and supplies, my concern about Hawaii is what happens if they reach capacity and you become very ill? They are far away from help and everything would need to be flown or shipped in from the mainland.


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## TravelTime (Mar 19, 2020)

I would not go. It will not be fun with most things closed. Even though I do not have health anxiety, I would be concerned about being stuck on an airplane with other people.  Even in good times, airplanes are places where germs flow and people catch things. I am also worried about going far from home and getting quarantined somewhere. The loss of control with travel is a concern.


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## Panina (Mar 19, 2020)

Being Hawaii asked no one come we should respect that request and not go.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 19, 2020)

Why does this point:



fernow said:


> ...People are fascinating creatures.



Remind me of the old Chinese blessing/curse _May you live in interesting times...._


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## rickandcindy23 (Mar 19, 2020)

I believe Emmy and Peter are there right now.  I just emailed Emmy and may give her a call.  They stay on Maui about four weeks starting now or they may already be there.  They own at Maui Sunset, the Hyatt and Marriott's newer towers.  They are all fixed weeks, so this will hurt them, should they not be able to go.  They are mid-80's in age, so that could be keeping them home, and without the governor asking people not to come.


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## MPrince (Mar 19, 2020)

People are free to make whatever decisions they want to make. I'd just like to mention that as of today, according to the Bing COVID-19 tracker fewer than 10,000 people *worldwide* have died from COVID-19. As of three weeks ago, according to the NY Times, 20,000 people in the *USA* have died from the seasonal flu. Take from that what you will.


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## CPNY (Mar 19, 2020)

Cancel don’t be a spreader


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## Luanne (Mar 19, 2020)

MPrince said:


> People are free to make whatever decisions they want to make. I'd just like to mention that as of today, according to the Bing COVID-19 tracker fewer than 10,000 people *worldwide* have died from COVID-19. As of three weeks ago, according to the NY Times, 20,000 people in the *USA* have died from the seasonal flu. Take from that what you will.


I take from that  that both are dangerous.  I take from that that people still don't understand that there is NO vaccine for COVID-19.  It seems to spread more quickly than the flu. That's what I take from that.


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## LynnHilton (Mar 19, 2020)

Cancel.

Heed the accurate warnings of local, state and federal government: COVID-19 is a serious and deadly virus.  Social distancing.  No discretionary travel.

Risk / Reward.  The risk of contracting COVID-19 yourself (possible permanent lung damage or death), and if so then spreading COVID-19 to other people (possible permanent lung damage or death, possibly including people you love) is not worth the reward of a few days vacation in Hawaii.

Good citizenship, thinking about society as a whole and not just yourself.  Your bad choices can lead to death of others.

While you're home, watch and read reliable news sources to understand the true facts.  When you become better informed, you'll see that your original question of "recommendation vs ban" and "go or don't go" is obvious: don't go.


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## brp (Mar 19, 2020)

MPrince said:


> People are free to make whatever decisions they want to make. I'd just like to mention that as of today, according to the Bing COVID-19 tracker fewer than 10,000 people *worldwide* have died from COVID-19. As of three weeks ago, according to the NY Times, 20,000 people in the *USA* have died from the seasonal flu. Take from that what you will.



The spread dynamics and fatality rates for COVID-19 are very different. Can't compare.

Or, to look at it another way:

If we treated COVID-19 like flu, i.e. did pretty much nothing, many more than the flu would die. Or, if we did the things for flu that we are doing for COVID-19 many fewer would die.

In Italy, COVID-19 deaths increase by an order of magnitude every 8 days so far. In California, it's every 13 days. This is *not* the flu.

Cheers.


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## CanuckTravlr (Mar 19, 2020)

Sorry.  When I hear questions such as "should I go" or comments such as "Covid-19 is less deadly than the flu" I have to shake my head.  Are you guys in a total state of illusion or disbelief?  Watch the Italian short video (with English translation) "10 Days" where Italians with those same questions and comments before it got really bad in Italy, talk to the person they were 10 days before as to the advice they would give themselves from 10 days in the future.









						Italians share what they wish they'd done 10 days ago to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, from staying inside to listening to their mom's advice
					

Italy's cases of the coronavirus have skyrocketed. Some say they wish they'd stayed inside and practiced social distancing before it became mandatory.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




The response from their "future" selves is unanimous.  Stay home. Don't go out.  Don't mingle.  Don't go to bars or restaurants.  Don't travel.  Don't endanger others.  If you must go out, and only if absolutely necessary, maintain social distance (2 metres/6 feet).  Listen to the medical experts and heed their advice.  It is not about whether you might be sick or get sick.  It is whether you, even inadvertently, might make someone else sick, or worse die.  Please stop thinking just about yourselves!!


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## Harry (Mar 19, 2020)

lynne said:


> We just has our first case here on the Big Island which was brought in by a tourist.  As most native Hawaiians are a high risk group (diabetes and high blood pressure) those of us who call this island home are very aware of our impact on others and have been staying home and not socializing.  All large retail stores are closing, the restaurants are either take out only or limiting their occupancy.  If you do not have to be here, please cancel as resources are limited.  We live in one of the most remote places on the planet and if this virus moves the way it is expected on the mainland, you will wipe out an entire population of 'at risk' people.
> [/QUOTE.
> 
> This says it all!!!!


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## dayooper (Mar 19, 2020)

MPrince said:


> People are free to make whatever decisions they want to make. I'd just like to mention that as of today, according to the Bing COVID-19 tracker fewer than 10,000 people *worldwide* have died from COVID-19. As of three weeks ago, according to the NY Times, 20,000 people in the *USA* have died from the seasonal flu. Take from that what you will.



Yes they are free to make their own choices. What does that say about the person who makes choices that endanger others? Whether or not a person thinks that Covid-19 is dangerous or not, the choices some people are making are going against what their government (both sides of the political aisle now) is advising them to do. Maybe you don’t have a friend or relative with a decreased lung function, auto-immune disease or that are elderly, but most of us do.  I don’t want to lose someone because somebody makes a choice that endangers others just because they want to express their freedom of choice.

Remember, it’s a great privilege to live in this country and have the personal freedoms we do. With that privilege comes great responsibility to make the choices that not only benefit us, but don’t needlessly endanger others in the process.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 19, 2020)

dayooper said:


> ...Remember, it’s a great privilege to live in this country and have the personal freedoms we do. *With that privilege comes great responsibility to make the choices that not only benefit us, but don’t needlessly endanger others in the process*.



And that is a lesson lost on far too many people these days.  
Sigh.


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## Panina (Mar 19, 2020)

dayooper said:


> Yes they are free to make their own choices. What does that say about the person who makes choices that endanger others? Whether or not a person thinks that Covid-19 is dangerous or not, the choices some people are making are going against what their government (both sides of the political aisle now) is advising them to do. Maybe you don’t have a friend or relative with a decreased lung function, auto-immune disease or that are elderly, but most of us do.  I don’t want to lose someone because somebody makes a choice that endangers others just because they want to express their freedom of choice.
> 
> Remember, it’s a great privilege to live in this country and have the personal freedoms we do. With that privilege comes great responsibility to make the choices that not only benefit us, but don’t needlessly endanger others in the process.


Well said.  We all do have a responsibility to help in the process.


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## HGVC Lover (Mar 19, 2020)

We lived in Kona for many years and just moved to the mainland to have access to better health care because we felt it was very limited on the outer islands.  My concern would be that if you get sick from COVID-19 chances are you would have very few medical options or maybe none if the Kona, Waimea and Hilo hospitals are overwhelmed with patients which really would not take very many to do that.  If COVID-19 keeps expanding on the islands like it is on the mainland then it is only a matter of time before thousands are infected in Hawaii.  Our local friends say pretty much everything is shutting down anyway.


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## 1Kflyerguy (Mar 19, 2020)

brp said:


> For us, as mundane as it may sound, a good bit of our travel is based on maintaining status, so we'd need these flights.  And this is for 3 airlines, although the third will be mostly done with one trip in December/January). Of course, I do expect accommodations for status to come rolling out soon, so it may not matter as much.
> 
> Cheers.



I also use my vacation travel to help maintain my airline and hotel status,  so i understand that completely.

I had a number long haul business trips planned and approved, but my employer but a hold on all travel the same day i planned to book.  I will need to travel quite a bit in the 2nd half of the year if i have hope of keeping my 1K status with United.    A lot may depend on how fast the virus threat clears up, and how bad the economy gets.


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## pedro47 (Mar 19, 2020)

This is a very hard decision about traveling to Hawaii.
College and Universities are closed in Virginia. Students are taking classes online at home. My granddaughter was going to be commission an ensign in the Coast Guard in May 2020. We were going to Hawaii to celebrate her graduation and her commission as an officer. This Coronavirus has drawn a change in our objectives about traveling to Hawaii. We have secured a resort for our family vacation of ten (10) and airfare.


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## brp (Mar 19, 2020)

1Kflyerguy said:


> I also use my vacation travel to help maintain my airline and hotel status,  so i understand that completely.
> 
> I had a number long haul business trips planned and approved, but my employer but a hold on all travel the same day i planned to book.  I will need to travel quite a bit in the 2nd half of the year if i have hope of keeping my 1K status with United.    A lot may depend on how fast the virus threat clears up, and how bad the economy gets.



Our status travel is all personal. Qantas and someone else (forgot who) gave 12-month status extensions. I expect others to follow suit.

Cheers.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 19, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> This is a very hard decision about traveling to Hawaii.
> College and Universities are closed in Virginia. Students are taking classes online at home. My granddaughter was going to be commission an ensign in the Coast Guard in May 2020. We were going to Hawaii to celebrate her graduation and her commission as an officer. This Coronavirus has drawn a change in our objectives about traveling to Hawaii. We have secured a resort for our family vacation of ten (10) and airfare.


Semper Paratus to your GD, Pedro!
Our daughter is in the Coast Guard right now.


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## Panina (Mar 19, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> This is a very hard decision about traveling to Hawaii.
> College and Universities are closed in Virginia. Students are taking classes online at home. My granddaughter was going to be commission an ensign in the Coast Guard in May 2020. We were going to Hawaii to celebrate her graduation and her commission as an officer. This Coronavirus has drawn a change in our objectives about traveling to Hawaii. We have secured a resort for our family vacation of ten (10) and airfare.


If Hawaii at that times says do not come, you shouldn’t.  The last thing you want is someone in the family dies from it and your granddaughter will feel responsible.  There will be many other times to celebrate.  This is the time to follow what we are being asked to do, to make sure fewer people get sick.


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## alwysonvac (Mar 19, 2020)

HGVC Lover said:


> We lived in Kona for many years and just moved to the mainland to have access to better health care because we felt it was very limited on the outer islands.  *My concern would be that if you get sick from COVID-19 chances are you would have very few medical options or maybe none if the Kona, Waimea and Hilo hospitals are overwhelmed with patients which really would not take very many to do that.  If COVID-19 keeps expanding on the islands like it is on the mainland then it is only a matter of time before thousands are infected in Hawaii.*  Our local friends say pretty much everything is shutting down anyway.



To support what HGVC Lover shared....

From https://www.westhawaiitoday.com/202...t-gov-concerned-about-patient-surge-capacity/

_....“(ICU) beds in our regional hospitals, like Kona and Hilo, are somewhat limited, especially during the flu season and they are nonexistent in the critical access hospitals,” said Green._​​_Kona Community Hospital, Hilo Medical Center and North Hawaii Community Hospital are acute care hospitals with intensive care units. Critical care access hospitals on Hawaii Island include Ka‘u Hospital, Hale Hoola Hamakua in Honokaa and Kohala Hospital._​​_“*We do have enough resources right now to manage our own health concerns, but if there’s a large surge, I would be worried that we couldn’t keep all of our people safe and alive*,” Green said._​​_Green, providing a “ballpark” figure, estimated the number of ICU beds on Hawaii Island at somewhere between 25 and 40 with eight to 10 in Kona, 10 to 12 in Hilo and six to eight in North Hawaii._​​_But, they are not always open, ready and waiting for patients._​​_“With the need to care for everybody who already needs them for their cancers, their heart failures, renal failures and so on, there may only be, at any given time, a surge capacity of five to 10 beds,” he explained. “So, if we have 85 people infected, and they all got sick, we are in deep trouble. Or, if a cruise ship landed and we had — God help us — 200 people.”_​​
From https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...rge-of-patients-could-cripple-isle-hospitals/

_...Over 12 months Honolulu hospitals could get an estimated 93,700 coronavirus patients, requiring 3,120 beds, nearly four times the number of available beds, based on moderate estimates. That would overwhelm intensive care units that have an average 73 available beds, 9.3 times times fewer than what is needed, the data shows._​​_The state currently has 340 intensive care unit beds and 561 ventilators — machines that provide oxygen for patients unable to breathe on their own in severe respiratory distress, according to the Healthcare Association of Hawaii._​​_State officials are urging the public to distance themselves from one another to stop the rapid spread of COVID-19, warning that the health care system will collapse if too many people get sick at once. Hospitals statewide have a total of 3,069 beds, including 166 isolation rooms currently in use, and routinely run at or near capacity._​​*“Many of the hospitals are basically full right now, and there’s very little capacity right this minute so if you add even 50 more patients, you overwhelm the system,” said Dr. James Ireland, a community physician. “If you add 200 more patients in the system, there’s nowhere for them to go, and if you add more than that, they may have to decide who gets lifesaving treatment and who doesn’t.”*​


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## pedro47 (Mar 19, 2020)

Panina said:


> If Hawaii at that times says do not come, you shouldn’t.  The last thing you want is someone in the family dies from it and your granddaughter will feel responsible.  There will be many other times to celebrate.  This is the time to follow what we are being asked to do, to make sure fewer people get sick.


You sound just liked my Commander-in-Chief. She wants to cancel everything and I do not.


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## Panina (Mar 19, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> You sound just liked my Commander-in-Chief. She wants to cancel everything and I do not.


Smart commander-in-chief.  You need to take the emotion out of it.


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## tombanjo (Mar 19, 2020)

Wouldn't it be amusing to ignore the governor's warning and just show up ? That would really show them who's boss. Of course, he could make a mandatory shut down of all hotels and resorts and you could spend 3 days sleeping in an airport with no food or services until you could get a flight home. That's the freedom to do as you please.


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## chellej (Mar 19, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> This is a very hard decision about traveling to Hawaii.
> College and Universities are closed in Virginia. Students are taking classes online at home. My granddaughter was going to be commission an ensign in the Coast Guard in May 2020. We were going to Hawaii to celebrate her graduation and her commission as an officer. This Coronavirus has drawn a change in our objectives about traveling to Hawaii. We have secured a resort for our family vacation of ten (10) and airfare.





bbodb1 said:


> Semper Paratus to your GD, Pedro!
> Our daughter is in the Coast Guard right now.




Glad to see other Coastie families here.  DD graduated from OCS 2 years ago.  She is here with us now and waiting for her PCS....was supposed to have it by the 18th now they say 20th...she is anxious and also worried about getting back when her leave is up.


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## brp (Mar 19, 2020)

tombanjo said:


> Wouldn't it be amusing to ignore the governor's warning and just show up ? That would really show them who's boss. Of course, he could make a mandatory shut down of all hotels and resorts and you could spend 3 days sleeping in an airport with no food or services until you could get a flight home. That's the freedom to do as you please.



OK, so I'm not going in the next 30 days, so this is more of an academic argument. I've seen a lot of knee-jerk reaction about the pandemic and this seems to be in that realm.

What it is saying is that he doesn't want people coming from a place that has the virus to a place that already has the virus. Now, I could personally bring it in myself, true.

But I'm on shelter-in-place for another 2.5 weeks, so won;t be traveling anywhere. I do leave my hour to walk about, but am not near enough to people or things to contract the virus. When I come back, I wash my hands. So, the likelihood that I bring it in is vanishingly small. And we already know that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity. So, while I believe that I've read of one cause of community transmission in Hawaii, it's a pretty low probability even for an infected person.

So, yeah, I'm not going but, as I said, I see this request as one of a number of knee-jerk responses.

And, yeah, I know that this will not be a popular opinion here 

Cheers.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 19, 2020)

chellej said:


> Glad to see other Coastie families here.  DD graduated from OCS 2 years ago.  She is here with us now and waiting for her PCS....was supposed to have it by the 18th now they say 20th...she is anxious and also worried about getting back when her leave is up.


Best of luck to your daughter on wherever her next assignment(s) take her, Chelle!  Where is DD's next duty assignment?
@pedro47 ... same question to you too...
Our daughter is currently assigned to Atlantic City.


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## elaine (Mar 19, 2020)

No go. Lost $,lost vacation, whatever. We have to flatten the curve. It won’t be gone in 30 days.  Please do you part. No one thinks they’re a carrier or that their little cough is C-19. New study from chjna says 4 out of 5 got it from someone who didn’t know they had it.
This is something no one has seen like 1918 Spanish flu. We’re all in it together. Everyone’s actions affect others.


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## HGVC Lover (Mar 19, 2020)

brp said:


> And we already know that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity. So, while I believe that I've read of one cause of community transmission in Hawaii, it's a pretty low probability even for an infected person.




There is no confirmed research to support the above statement.  Seasonality does not constrain pandemic viruses the way it does old ones.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 19, 2020)

elaine said:


> No go. Lost $,lost vacation, whatever. We have to flatten the curve. It won’t be gone in 30 days.  Please do you part. No one thinks they’re a carrier or that their little cough is C-19.
> This is something no one has seen like 1918 Spanish flu. We’re all in it together. Everyone’s actions affect others.


We are still holding on for end of May, but.....we are getting closer to canceling as the news continues to worsen.


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## brp (Mar 19, 2020)

HGVC Lover said:


> There is no confirmed research to support the above statement.  Seasonality does not constrain pandemic viruses the way it does old ones.



This is one of many references showing exactly this:









						Impact of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Transmission of COVID-19: A Modeling Study in China and the United States
					

We aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors



					papers.ssrn.com
				




You can find a lot of others. In the end, this follows the characteristics of a coronavirus, which have been around for a long time, While the infection characteristics of COVID-19 are not well understood, the transmission characteristics should, and seem to,conform to other coronavirus strains.

Cheers.


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## elaine (Mar 19, 2020)

I also have a prime reservation for end of May. Id love to keep it, but am fully prepared to cancel if there’s any chance of continued infection, which I think will Be the case. My family vacation is about the lowest priority in my life. And that’s from a travel junkie.


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## HGVC Lover (Mar 19, 2020)

brp said:


> This is one of many references showing exactly this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I am aware of those studies but they are not regarding COVID - 19.

I also do not read right wing websites.  Aloha


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## Tamaradarann (Mar 19, 2020)

elaine said:


> I also have a prime reservation for end of May. Id love to keep it, but am fully prepared to cancel if there’s any chance of continued infection, which I think will Be the case. My family vacation is about the lowest priority in my life. And that’s from a travel junkie.



We are in Hawaii right now.  It isn't the same here as it was a month ago.  Everything is shutdown including bars and restaurants with little to do.  The beach is still there and the weather is in the 70's.  It is nice just being outside, but with little to do it is not the same.


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## brp (Mar 19, 2020)

HGVC Lover said:


> I am aware of those studies but they are not regarding COVID - 19.
> 
> I also do not read right wing websites.  Aloha



They are about COVID-19 and other coronavirus strains. This is just a new form of a coronavirus.. And you can choose to read what you choose, That doesn't change the science.

But maybe some of these are more palatable?









						Coronavirus Could Very Well Slow by the Summer
					

Evidence is emerging that warmer temperatures and higher humidity can indeed affect the disease’s spread.




					www.bloomberg.com
				











						Warmer weather could slow the spread of coronavirus—but not by much
					

Several initial analyses of transmission data suggest the pandemic could ease up in summer. But that doesn’t reduce the need for measures like social distancing.




					www.technologyreview.com
				







__





						Europe PMC
					

Europe PMC is an archive of life sciences journal literature.




					europepmc.org
				











						Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces
					

Assessment of the risks posed by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS-CoV) on surfaces requires data on survival of this virus on environmental surfaces and on how survival is affected by environmental variables, such as air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH). The...




					aem.asm.org
				





			https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/analysis-of-new-research-paper-tying-coronavirus-to-weather/703270
		


Cheers.


----------



## MrockStar (Mar 19, 2020)

Dayooper, i totally agree with what you have said. My wife who is a teacher is up at our lake cottage sheltering in place for 2.5 weeks. i will visit on the weekends. We are limiting visits to our kids as she is pregnant with our 3rd grandchild  due in May. So we all have to make sacrifices for our families and our country & fellow Americans. AL


----------



## pacman (Mar 19, 2020)

No one should be travelling right now


----------



## klpca (Mar 19, 2020)

HGVC Lover said:


> We lived in Kona for many years and just moved to the mainland to have access to better health care because we felt it was very limited on the outer islands.  My concern would be that if you get sick from COVID-19 chances are you would have very few medical options or maybe none if the Kona, Waimea and Hilo hospitals are overwhelmed with patients which really would not take very many to do that.  If COVID-19 keeps expanding on the islands like it is on the mainland then it is only a matter of time before thousands are infected in Hawaii.  Our local friends say pretty much everything is shutting down anyway.


We have actually had a stay in the ICU at the hospital in Waimea. The staff was very nice but it in no way resembled what we are used to. They are affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic (electronically) and we had an excellent stay and a good outcome, but if I recall correctly there were a total of six ICU beds. I cannot actually recommend it for a stay in Hawaii. The beds are uncomfortable and the decor looks like it hasn't been updated since the 80's (note: sarcasm  )


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 19, 2020)

Despite governor’s plea, visitors are still coming ... and crowding into eateries
					

One Utah woman said she decided to come when she couldn’t cancel her flight.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## tombanjo (Mar 20, 2020)

Plans to quarantine all arrivals for 14 days.









						The State plans to quarantine everyone coming to Hawaii for 14 days
					

Lieutenant Governor Josh Green wants to implement a 14-day quarantine for both residents and visitors coming into the islands.




					www.khon2.com
				




not sure how they can enforce this with people continuing to completely ignore  requests to distance or not arrive at all. 

yes, in 30 or 60 days things could be completely different. Hopefully, in 30 days the trajectory of infection will have peaked and been flattened by the current policies to contain it.


----------



## chellej (Mar 20, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> Best of luck to your daughter on wherever her next assignment(s) take her, Chelle!  Where is DD's next duty assignment?
> @pedro47 ... same question to you too...
> Our daughter is currently assigned to Atlantic City.




She is currently in Pensacola and is supposed to hear by today whats next....hopefully she will hear. She is hoping for Mobile because her DH has a really good job...they would each have an hour commute.


----------



## fernow (Mar 20, 2020)

Love all the discussion but certainly note a dominate point of view.  Right or wrong, we aren't going, so flamers please don't flame me.

The reason there has been a run on toilet paper is because there has been a run on toilet paper.  Think about that.  People are fascinating creatures.

Nobody on this site, including me, knows anything about this virus except what we have been told.  Maybe it is going to kill us all.  Maybe not.  But most of us will ask no questions and do what we are told.

As MPrince pointed out, about 10k deaths world wide with a disease that started late last year.  How does that fit with the rapid doubling times we have been told to expect.  How does that fit with estimates of 1.2M deaths expected in the USA in the next few months?  Wrong to ask the questions?  Better to believe?  Maybe.

In a few months we will know more but probably learn nothing.   IF is as bad as THEY say, the economic impact and human impact will be horrible.   IF it is NOT as bad as THEY say, the economic impact and human impact will be horrible.  May end up with more suicide and homicide (tied to poverty) deaths than viral deaths.

Who KNOWS?


----------



## bbodb1 (Mar 20, 2020)

fernow said:


> Love all the discussion but certainly note a dominate point of view.  Right or wrong, we aren't going, so flamers please don't flame me.
> 
> The reason there has been a run on toilet paper is because there has been a run on toilet paper.  Think about that.  People are fascinating creatures.
> 
> ...


People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals, and you know it.


----------



## brp (Mar 20, 2020)

fernow said:


> As MPrince pointed out, about 10k deaths world wide with a disease that started late last year.  How does that fit with the rapid doubling times we have been told to expect.  How does that fit with estimates of 1.2M deaths expected in the USA in the next few months?  Wrong to ask the questions?  Better to believe?  Maybe.



I can speak to this as I've been doing the analysis based on real data. Now, these are past data and, as they say, this is not a guarantee of future performance, but:

In Italy, over the course of almost a month they showed a rate of increase whereby there was a decade increase (factor of 10) every 8 days.

In the US, over about 3 weeks (since we started later), the rate was a 10-fold increase every 13 days as of yesterday. As of today, that number is closer to every 12.4 days as it has been increasing at a higher rate. With this prediction, we will exceed 1000 deaths on 29 March.

Of course, we're taking steps to mitigate this, so it won't continue. But you can see how, unchecked, this has the potential to get big fast. This is not the flu by any means, current numbers notwithstanding.



bbodb1 said:


> People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals, and you know it.



That's true as well 

Cheers.


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

fernow said:


> Love all the discussion but certainly note a dominate point of view.  Right or wrong, we aren't going, so flamers please don't flame me.
> 
> The reason there has been a run on toilet paper is because there has been a run on toilet paper.  Think about that.  People are fascinating creatures.
> 
> ...



I tend to agree with you. Right now, we know very little about the virus and its real toll but we know for sure that there will be mass human suffering due to the economic impact and mental health impact. People are already being greedy with each other and demanding that others pay for their losses. I think the way people are handling this is really extreme, as if we will all die. That is simply not going to happen. The vast majority of people who get Covid-19 show no symptoms or have mild symptoms. They have already discovered vaccines and treatments that are being tested. Humans are followers and we will follow our leaders like sheep. This was demonstrated in the Milgram Shock Experiment. See link below for a description. I think everyone is pointing to Italy as a worst case example. But what about looking at Germany where the death rate is only 0.2%. How about looking at how the Asian countries that have gotten this under control? The economic impact and mental health impact is going to hurt everyone and will last for many years. The poor are going to be hurt more than everyone else, leading to even greater income inequality. I know it is unpopular to think about the economic impacts right now but this is a cause of real human suffering as well as physical and mental health problems. We need to consider it too. Mexico is recognizing that economic problems will hurt their poor more than anyone else and that is why they have tried to keep their economy operating. Like it or not, agree or disagree, these are important considerations. I hope everyone will be fair with each other and share in the losses.






						Milgram Experiment: Summary, Results, Conclusion, & Ethics
					






					www.simplypsychology.org


----------



## Luanne (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Despite governor’s plea, visitors are still coming ... and crowding into eateries
> 
> 
> One Utah woman said she decided to come when she couldn’t cancel her flight.
> ...


I'm surprised Hawaii hasn't gone the route of many other states and shut down restaurants except for take out and delivery.


----------



## slip (Mar 20, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I'm surprised Hawaii hasn't gone the route of many other states and shut down restaurants except for take out and delivery.



It started today But some Businesses started early.


----------



## Luanne (Mar 20, 2020)

slip said:


> It started today But some Businesses started early.


Things change so fast.  One of our favorite restaurants was saying a few days ago they were still open and also doing take out.  The next day it was take out only.  One day later they were closing completely.

My nephew and his wife have a wedding venue in Missouri.  I asked my sister a few weeks ago if they had been impacted. She said no.  I was talking to her today, and oh boy have they been impacted now.  The state (or maybe it was their county) limited gatherings to 50 people.  So that impacted a lot of the weddings they were doing.  He is not offering refunds (he said if he had to refund everything he'd go out of business) but he is offering to change dates, to work with people to do smaller weddings.  Then as I was talking to my sister my brother in law came in and said the restriction was now no more than 10 at a gathering.  I hope they make it through this.


----------



## fernow (Mar 20, 2020)

brp: Are you looking at deaths or "cases"?  Cases are a less reliable number.  Hard to fake death.
IF deaths and cases have a fixed relationship, and first Italian death was mid Feb, there should be about 10k deaths if ten-fold increase every 8 days.
IF China had a similar rate, and first death occurred in mid December, there should be between 10M and 100M deaths.  I know we can't trust the Chinese data but I think 100M deaths might be hard to conceal.
California has locked down and STILL we are told over 50% of us will eventually get the disease.  So...the point of the lockdown is...?
Gotta admit that some of the info just doesn't match up.
Again, time will tell but important to ask the questions and LEARN, one way or the other, from this event.
IF nothing else, maybe the next time, and there will be a next time, we will have a better idea what to do.


----------



## Luanne (Mar 20, 2020)

fernow said:


> California has locked down and STILL we are told over 50% of us will eventually get the disease.  So...the point of the lockdown is...?


Maybe to keep 100% of the population from getting it.

Maybe to keep it from spreading to the more vulnerable population who may die from it.


----------



## tah (Mar 20, 2020)

fernow said:


> California has locked down and STILL we are told over 50% of us will eventually get the disease.  So...the point of the lockdown is...?



because if you don't lock down it may be more than 50%...


----------



## brp (Mar 20, 2020)

fernow said:


> brp: Are you looking at deaths or "cases"?  Cases are a less reliable number.  Hard to fake death.



Looking strictly at deaths because, as you say, cases are highly unreliable.

The site I'm using for data is this









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 128,728,806 Cases and 2,813,723 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




And I started in each case from then the total count reached 10 to minimize the impact of the noise in the first few. In Italy that was roughly Feb 26. Then March 5 they were over 100 and March 12 over 1000. 3400 as of yesterday, and hew curve is showing definite signs of being less-than-exponential for several days now due, likely, to their mitigation strategies. They will not be at 10K by tomorow.

US, however, is still quite exponential and the rate has increased in the past couple of days. We'll see soon (I hope) if the mitigations start to have any impact.

And again, these are only models and are really based on pre-mitigation trends.



fernow said:


> California has locked down and STILL we are told over 50% of us will eventually get the disease.  So...the point of the lockdown is...?



Actually, they issued an update saying that was a without mitigation estimate, i.e. if we kept things business as usual. They definitely expect less with mitigation. And to be clear (since these are actually defined terms), we are *not* on lockdown. This is shelter-in-place and we are allowed out for even things like taking a walk. while maintaining diostance Lockdown is far more stringent.

Cheers.


----------



## DaveNV (Mar 20, 2020)

This is from the Washington state Department of Health.  It bears on the posts just above:





So apply this nationally, and the numbers reported aren't (and can't be) exactly accurate.

Dave


----------



## brp (Mar 20, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> So apply this nationally, and the numbers reported aren't (and can't be) exactly accurate.
> 
> Dave



Indeed. That's been known for some time. South Korea probably has the best data since their testing is most extensive. And even there it's not going to be completely accurate.

Cheers.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte (Mar 20, 2020)

I figure that by the time this is over, a minimum of 50% of the world population will have picked up the virus, perhaps closer to 100%.  For the majority, they will be asymptomatic carriers.  Another large group will experience it as only a mild cough, congestion, and fever. 

But the takeaway is that we should all consider that acquiring the virus is inevitable.  What is a factor is whether your exposure might occur at a time when effective countermeasures are available.  That is one of the big items with flattening the curve - it buys time, as well as easing the strain on medical care facilities.

If there were no possibility to implement effective countermeasures, then arguably taking no measures would be more practical.  Let the v irus, hit, spread quickly, and get it over with as soon as possible, accepting the casualties as inevitable, since they would be occurring in either case. And leaving behind a population that has resistance to continuing outbreaks to the virus.


----------



## brp (Mar 20, 2020)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> If there were no possibility to implement effective countermeasures, then arguably taking no measures would be more practical.  Let the v irus, hit, spread quickly, and get it over with as soon as possible, accepting the casualties as inevitable, since they would be occurring in either case. And leaving behind a population that has resistance to continuing outbreaks to the virus.



The older/retired/at risk population, i.e. the "casualties" in your proposal are a strong and generally wealthy lobby. That's why this will never happen.

Besides, if we really did "nothing" and let it run its course, casualty numbers would likely be huge.

Cheers.


----------



## jehb2 (Mar 20, 2020)

Stomach bugs, flu, viruses, etc. spread very quickly across the islands.


----------



## JohnPaul (Mar 20, 2020)

brp said:


> And we already know that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity. So, while I believe that I've read of one cause of community transmission in Hawaii, it's a pretty low probability even for an infected person.



I'm afraid that we DO NOT KNOW that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity.  The virus is in virtually EVERY country in the world including lots of them that are hot and steamy.

(Political comment removed)


----------



## brp (Mar 20, 2020)

JohnPaul said:


> I'm afraid that we DO NOT KNOW that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity.  The virus is in virtually EVERY country in the world including lots of them that are hot and steamy.



Talking specifically about community transmission, not cases. And we have some very good science (as noted) for the impact of heat and humidity on the isolated virus on surfaces, which is how the majority  of communal transmission occurs. So, yeah, we do have a good idea about this.
Cheers.


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

brp said:


> The older/retired/at risk population, i.e. the "casualties" in your proposal are a strong and generally wealthy lobby. That's why this will never happen.
> 
> Besides, if we really did "nothing" and let it run its course, casualty numbers would likely be huge.
> 
> Cheers.



I am confused by what you mean that the "older/retired/at risk population, i.e. the "casualties" in your proposal are a strong and generally wealthy lobby." Are you saying that being wealthy is somehow protective?


----------



## brp (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I am confused by what you mean that the "older/retired/at risk population, i.e. the "casualties" in your proposal are a strong and generally wealthy lobby." Are you saying that being wealthy is somehow protective?



Nope. I'm saying that being part of a powerful lobby means that public policies, at all levels, will be impacted in your favor. Not making a value judgement, just stating the reality.

Cheers.


----------



## lynne (Mar 20, 2020)

Big Island Update:  All state beaches have already been closed, county beaches will be closed beginning tomorrow (Saturday).
2 more Covid-19 cases from tourists - PLEASE STAY HOME until this is past


----------



## alwysonvac (Mar 20, 2020)

For those who haven’t read the other COVID-19 threads....

When you hear exponential growth, they‘re referring to number of COVID-19 cases.
When you hear flatten the curve, they’re talking about reducing the number of people getting infected via social distancing. It's too late now to prevent COVID-19 from spreading in our communities, the only thing we can do is limit and slow that spread so we can save lives.
Why the hype? COVID-19 is less deadly than other large-scale outbreaks, such as of SARS, MERS and Ebola. But the infection seems to spread more easily than other diseases, including seasonal influenza and has a greater potential to overwhelm our health care system. We _basically_ have fewer tools and no natural immunity.
_“There is a fundamental difference in how flu and Covid-19 kill. Many deaths from flu are caused by secondary bacterial pneumonia and heart attacks that develop after the flu has weakened someone's resistance. With Covid-19, most deaths are caused by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which causes already-damaged lungs to fill with fluid, and makes breathing difficult. Unlike pneumonia, there is no pharmaceutical treatment for ARDS. That is why a potential shortage of ventilators is so dangerous: They are the last-ditch supportive treatment for Covid-19 while the body heals itself.”_​​

​

​

​

​
There are lots of articles. Here are a few

*Former CDC director: Covid-19 is different from flu and we must respond differently - *https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-covid-19-flu-comparison-frieden-analysis/index.html
*Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”* - https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
*They Were Infected With the Coronavirus. They Never Showed Signs *- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic.html
*What does the coronavirus do to your body? Everything to know about the infection process - *https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/03/13/what-coronavirus-does-body-covid-19-infection-process-symptoms/5009057002/
*China May Be Beating the Coronavirus, at a Painful Cost - *https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-cost.html
*Chronology: Germany and the Coronavirus - *https://berlinspectator.com/2020/02/04/chronology-germany-and-the-coronavirus/
​​


----------



## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

brp said:


> Nope. I'm saying that being part of a powerful lobby means that public policies, at all levels, will be impacted in your favor. Not making a value judgement, just stating the reality.
> 
> Cheers.



I did not realize the "older/retired/at risk population" is a wealthy lobby.


----------



## bbodb1 (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I did not realize the "older/retired/at risk population" is a wealthy lobby.


It is a powerful voting bloc....
Because they actually vote!


----------



## brp (Mar 21, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I did not realize the "older/retired/at risk population" is a wealthy lobby.


They are.

"We made a remark that the 65+ household demographic has the highest net worths – and this article fills in the details. "









						Average Net Worth by Age plus Median, Top 1%, and All Percentiles
					

Average net worth by age, plus median, top 1% and other net worth percentiles in 2020. See your rank as a percentile for your age and wealth.




					dqydj.com
				




Cheers.


----------



## brp (Mar 21, 2020)

alwysonvac said:


> For those who haven’t read the other COVID-19 threads....
> 
> When you hear exponential growth, they‘re referring to number of COVID-19 cases



Very excellent analysis, hut I singled this one out to say that, while true, it is incomplete.

The death rate is also exponential over a reasonably long time period. In the two countries I modeled (Italy and the US), the growth in the number of death is exponential. It has slowed in Italy recently (as new cases will also slow to less than exponential). but is still exponential at this time in the US.

The US death toll grows by an order of magnitude every 12.1 days and this trend has been going for about 16 days. This model predicts over 1000 deaths in the US by about March 28/29. I hope we flatten before then.

Cheers.


----------



## HGVC Lover (Mar 21, 2020)

Agree with your assessment......people are quoting antidotal studies that have to do with other types of viruses and not COVID-19.....if heat and humidity were the magic bullet that stopped COVID-19 then all of us could turn our houses into temporary saunas and problem would be solved......


----------



## Rolltydr (Mar 21, 2020)

I’m sorry but this is driving me nuts. The word is “anecdotal”, not antidotal. Antidotal is not a word. 


Harry


----------



## Talent312 (Mar 21, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> The word is “anecdotal,” not antidotal. Antidotal is not a word.



However, I'm "antidotal." I'm opposed to doting.
A person who dotes looks rather silly..._ anecdotally_.


----------



## HGVC Lover (Mar 21, 2020)

Mark Twain Quotes On Spelling:

"Anyone who can only think of one way to spell a word obviously lacks imagination."

"I have no respect for a man who can spell a word only one way."

"Never trust anyone who can’t spell a word more than one way."


----------



## brp (Mar 21, 2020)

HGVC Lover said:


> Agree with your assessment......people are quoting antidotal studies that have to do with other types of viruses and not COVID-19.....if heat and humidity were the magic bullet that stopped COVID-19 then all of us could turn our houses into temporary saunas and problem would be solved......



I was likely unclear in what I wrote. Apologies. As I said, this is specific to *communal transmission. *This is not about a cure or antidote. And, no, these are not anecdotal studies. These are scientific studies with well defined hypotheses, procedures, methods and results.

This is simply about the impact of heat and humidity on the virus _ex vivo*.* _The virus is primarily transmitted by someone infected coughing, sneezing, spitting, breathing on a surface, depositing the virus. The virus can live on different surfaces for different amounts of time (this has also been measured). An uninfected person touches the surface, gets the virus on hands, touches face  and acquires the virus. Someone infected sneezing within 3 or so feet can also cause this, but that's less common.

The studies are about that. Transmission. Now, the studies have found that the viable life of he virus during which it can infect is impacted by environmental factors. All living things are. In the case of coronaviruses, and COVID-19 (which is a coronavirus), higher heat and humidity reduce the viable life of the virus. These reports have measured this and shown the results. No anecdotes. Data.

To quite Neil deGrasse Tyson (also available on a t-shirt )

“The good thing about *science* is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.” 

Cheers.


----------



## bbodb1 (Mar 21, 2020)

If you choose not to decide you still have made a choice.

Neal Peart


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte (Mar 21, 2020)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> I figure that by the time this is over, a minimum of 50% of the world population will have picked up the virus, perhaps closer to 100%.  For the majority, they will be asymptomatic carriers.  Another large group will experience it as only a mild cough, congestion, and fever.
> 
> But the takeaway is that we should all consider that acquiring the virus is inevitable.  What is a factor is whether your exposure might occur at a time when effective countermeasures are available.  That is one of the big items with flattening the curve - it buys time, as well as easing the strain on medical care facilities.
> 
> If there were no possibility to implement effective countermeasures, then arguably taking no measures would be more practical.  Let the v irus, hit, spread quickly, and get it over with as soon as possible, accepting the casualties as inevitable, since they would be occurring in either case. And leaving behind a population that has resistance to continuing outbreaks to the virus.


Just for clarity, note that the underlined sentence is written in the subjunctive tense, condition contrary to fact.  (As when Tevye sings, "If I were a rich man".)

But since there is a possibility of implementing counter-meaures, it is prudent to slow it down as much as possible.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy (Mar 21, 2020)

They just announced a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arriving passengers.  I haven't seen an end date for that.  We are canceling our May trip.


----------



## slip (Mar 21, 2020)

1Kflyerguy said:


> They just announced a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arriving passengers.  I haven't seen an end date for that.  We are canceling our May trip.



I believe they said until further notice.


----------



## brp (Mar 22, 2020)

1Kflyerguy said:


> They just announced a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arriving passengers.  I haven't seen an end date for that.  We are canceling our May trip.






slip said:


> I believe they said until further notice.



We have a trip 3rd week of May. We're keeping it for now to see how things play out.

Cheers.


----------



## bbodb1 (Mar 22, 2020)

brp said:


> We have a trip 3rd week of May. We're keeping it for now to see how things play out.
> 
> Cheers.


We are a bit after you @brp but will likely pull the plug very soon so we can get our Wyndham points back and push them forward into the next year.  We had to use something like 400K points for our Hawaii trip.  Don't want to lose those or have those go to RCI...


----------



## brp (Mar 22, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> We are a bit after you @brp but will likely pull the plug very soon so we can get our Wyndham points back and push them forward into the next year.  We had to use something like 400K points for our Hawaii trip.  Don't want to lose those or have those go to RCI...



For us, the air is Alaska (and we're MVP Gold, so can cancel for no fee) the these are Marriott hotel points with one refundable paid night. We have until like 2 days before to cancel, although they'll likely waive fees anyway. So no reason to do anything for a while.

Cheers.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy (Mar 22, 2020)

brp said:


> For us, the air is Alaska (and we're MVP Gold, so can cancel for no fee) the these are Marriott hotel points with one refundable paid night. We have until like 2 days before to cancel, although they'll likely waive fees anyway. So no reason to do anything for a while.
> 
> Cheers.



I hope your able to go.  The mandatory quarantine order has been updated to have an end of May 20th.  We decided we were tired of the uncertainty, as potential our entire trip would be under quarantine. .  The way things are going it seems unlikely it would be a normal vacation, and we will take our chances that we visit later in the year.

Obviously this is fast changing situation, so with luck things will clear up, and they will lift the mandatory quarantine in time for you.


----------



## dsmrp (Mar 22, 2020)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> I figure that by the time this is over, a minimum of 50% of the world population will have picked up the virus, perhaps closer to 100%.  For the majority, they will be asymptomatic carriers.  Another large group will experience it as only a mild cough, congestion, and fever.
> 
> But the takeaway is that we should all consider that acquiring the virus is inevitable.  What is a factor is whether your exposure might occur at a time when effective countermeasures are available.  That is one of the big items with flattening the curve - it buys time, as well as easing the strain on medical care facilities.
> ...



Funny, I just came to a similar realization this morning before I read your post.
Until a vaccine can be developed, maybe in a year, or incidence of virus in community drops down to nil, we all have a high probability of exposure and acquiring virus.  COVID is not like influenza, but I hope like influenza its incidence will drop way down in the summer.

I've heard mention of 2nd and even 3rd waves of COVID infections.  
I'm like many others thinking we could more or less get back to some traveling in early summer.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte (Mar 22, 2020)

dsmrp said:


> Funny, I just came to a similar realization this morning before I read your post.
> Until a vaccine can be developed, maybe in a year, or incidence of virus in community drops down to nil, we all have a high probability of exposure and acquiring virus.  COVID is not like influenza, but I hope like influenza its incidence will drop way down in the summer.
> 
> I've heard mention of 2nd and even 3rd waves of COVID infections.
> I'm like many others thinking we could more or less get back to some traveling in early summer.


It's actually a straightforward outcome once the virus has spread so far that containment is no longer a viable strategy.  So now we're looking at flattening the curve.  But that means the virus will still be out there when the isolation and distancing measures are dropped.  So whenever those precautions are lifted, people who have been protected by self-distancing will now be exposed. Which means that pretty much everyone in the world is going to be exposed sooner or later.  

It seems to me that there almost inevitably will be a second wave of infections when those measures are dropped, because there will be that fresh source of people who haven't been exposed.  It will be similar to running a timeshare sales program at a resort.  If the only source of sales leads is existing timeshare owners, your sales program is going to lag because you're selling to people who have already been exposed.  But when you can tap in a new source of leads, people who haven't gained immunity from past exposures, the probability of a successful sale increases.


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## dsmrp (Mar 22, 2020)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> It's actually a straightforward outcome once the virus has spread so far that containment is no longer a viable strategy.  So now we're looking at flattening the curve.  But that means the virus will still be out there when the isolation and distancing measures are dropped.  So whenever those precautions are lifted, people who have been protected by self-distancing will now be exposed. Which means that pretty much everyone in the world is going to be exposed sooner or later.
> 
> It seems to me that there almost inevitably will be a second wave of infections when those measures are dropped, because there will be that fresh source of people who haven't been exposed.  It will be similar to running a timeshare sales program at a resort.  If the only source of sales leads is existing timeshare owners, your sales program is going to lag because you're selling to people who have already been exposed.  But when you can tap in a new source of leads, people who haven't gained immunity from past exposures, the probability of a successful sale increases.



Yes, I understand and pretty much agree.
However it sounds a little fatalistic, that for a small percentage of population:  elderly and those with high risk factors are pretty much screwed to have more severe consequences whether they contract virus now or later. That is if they can't self-isolate or quarantine until a vaccine is available.  

Personally, if I'm going to be exposed, I'd rather have it in the heat of summer.


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## brp (Mar 22, 2020)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> It's actually a straightforward outcome once the virus has spread so far that containment is no longer a viable strategy.  So now we're looking at flattening the curve.  But that means the virus will still be out there when the isolation and distancing measures are dropped.  So whenever those precautions are lifted, people who have been protected by self-distancing will now be exposed. Which means that pretty much everyone in the world is going to be exposed sooner or later.



Perhaps. But not everyone gets the flu, or other coronaviruses, so it is very possible that there are natural immunities to this. Of course, we don;t know enough yet. Still, it would be pretty bad with no controls. And, as you say, may still get bad when controls get relaxed.

Cheers.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (Mar 22, 2020)

dsmrp said:


> Yes, I understand and pretty much agree.
> However it sounds a little fatalistic, that for a small percentage of population:  elderly and those with high risk factors are pretty much screwed to have more severe consequences whether they contract virus now or later. That is if they can't self-isolate or quarantine until a vaccine is available.
> 
> Personally, if I'm going to be exposed, I'd rather have it in the heat of summer.


Not fatalistic. Delaying the onset of infection allows for counter-measures to be developed and made available.  The isolation and self-distancing measures would not be lifted until there are appropriate response provisions in place.  I would expect that when the time comes when measures are lifted, the lifting will be done in stages.  

The fatalistic option is to assume that everyone is going to get it sooner or later, deploying counter measures can't be done in any reasonable time frame, so those who are susceptible will die - it's only a question of when.  As I've posted previously, if that is the assumption then it makes the most sense to impose no measures at all, letting the virus run amok and kill those whom it is going to kill, leaving behind a world immune or resistant survivors.  That option probably ends the pandemic in a matter of several months in each locale once the virus hits.  That is the fastest track to a post-COVID-19 world.


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## GT75 (Mar 22, 2020)

If ever there was a time when someone was thinking about going "off the grid" to some remote location, now would be a great time to do that.    I do agree with the analysis behind flattening the curve (at least that is my understanding of what we are trying to do).   If you look at the two curves in @alwysonvac post #76, the people infected under each curve should be the same.   As stated, a flatten curve allows the health care system to better respond and also buys time for better treatment options (maybe dying out in the summer months or a vaccine).    Also, you will now notice that China is worried about re-infections from those coming back from outside of China (As I suspect also for South Korea).


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## dsmrp (Mar 22, 2020)

Let's hope the government can fast track development of a vaccine, or allow commercial companies to research & develop one.  I think anti-viral medications would normally take years. There's one I heard of that was partially tested for Ebola but subsequently dropped, which is being trialed.


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## ljmiii (Mar 24, 2020)

dsmrp said:


> Let's hope the government can fast track development of a vaccine...


A vaccine may be a while away but in a few short months we should have sufficient kits for the ubiquitous testing of infection and for the presence of anti-bodies.  Being able to tell in a few hours if you are contagious, have been exposed, or never been exposed to the COVID-19 coronavirus would be very, very useful.


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## brp (Mar 24, 2020)

Indeed. There is some evidence that they way in which South Korea flattened the curve so quickly was in the early abundance of testing. FOr us, that pooch has been screwed on the early side, but efforts now will help from this point forward.









						How South Korea Flattened the Curve (Published 2020)
					

The country showed that it is possible to contain the coronavirus without shutting down the economy, but experts are unsure whether its lessons can work abroad.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Cheers.


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## Talent312 (Mar 24, 2020)

The U.S. has been playing catch up from the get-go.
We're close to the edge, health-wise & economically.
One can only hope that we play it smart going forward.

I don't presume to know that that is, but I think that
whether we'll pull-back or go-over is an open question.
.


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## csodjd (Mar 24, 2020)

brp said:


> We have a trip 3rd week of May. We're keeping it for now to see how things play out.
> 
> Cheers.


Same here. Canceled my Oahu since it's just points, I'll use them next year. But my week Ocean Front at the Marriott in Maui is basically use it or lose it, and my air on American (for three) is effectively the same. So that's about $5,000. Figured I might as well wait until at least early May to decide. Maybe Hawaii will do a great job of stomping it out and by mid-May will be at least partly back to normal.


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## DaveNV (Mar 24, 2020)

csodjd said:


> Same here. Canceled my Oahu since it's just points, I'll use them next year. But my week Ocean Front at the Marriott in Maui is basically use it or lose it, and my air on American (for three) is effectively the same. So that's about $5,000. Figured I might as well wait until at least early May to decide. Maybe Hawaii will do a great job of stomping it out and by mid-May will be at least partly back to normal.



The problem is that even if Hawaii stomps it out locally, every person arriving from another area risks bringing it in with them, which will start the contamination cycle over again.  Sad to say, but I'm afraid your May trip is likely not going to happen.

Dave


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## csodjd (Mar 24, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> The problem is that even if Hawaii stomps it out locally, every person arriving from another area risks bringing it in with them, which all start the contamination cycle over again.  Sad to say, but I'm afraid your May trip is likely not going to happen.
> 
> Dave


Well, that's a good point. It's going to be a judgment call by the Hawaii governor of just if/when to relax that quarantine rule. It's still 2 months away. I'm in So. Cal. IF (big IF), people are respectful and stay put, maybe it'll be safe by then. Save for two early morning market runs, I've not been out of the house in 9 days. Wife and Daughter 13. 

On an aside, to all, note that one of the most dangerous interactions you can have is TALKING. A person without any symptoms can infect another person through the small droplets that naturally expel when you talk. Ironically, the words "Stay healthy" are particularly bad, lots of droplets expelled from the word healthy. I say this because even if you go to the market, it's best not to engage in conversation with others, including the person working the register, whom is probably < 6 ft away.


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## ljmiii (Mar 24, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> The problem is that even if Hawaii stomps it out locally, every person arriving from another area risks bringing it in with them, which all start the contamination cycle over again.  Sad to say, but I'm afraid your May trip is likely not going to happen.


I am reasonably hopeful that in two months the US will be able to routinely test for COVID-19 coronavirus infections and antibodies.

This is how quarantines are lifting in China. People in Wuhan who test negative can leave starting Apr 8th. Those who test negative can leave the rest of Hubei province starting today.


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## DaveNV (Mar 24, 2020)

ljmiii said:


> I am reasonably hopeful that in two months the US will be able to routinely test for COVID-19 coronavirus infections and antibodies.
> 
> This is how quarantines are lifting in China. People in Wuhan who test negative can leave starting Apr 8th. Those who test negative can leave the rest of Hubei province starting today.



I hope you're right, (I also have plans for late May), but it still seems like an ambitious timeline.

Dave


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## Panina (Mar 24, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> I hope you're right, (I also have plans for late May), but it still seems like an ambitious timeline.
> 
> Dave


I just don’t see it for May.


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## Finsadbel (Mar 26, 2020)

I know this has taken over this thread AND I am late in the game, but here’s my 2 cents.

As someone who has spent hours reviewing data, I would go out on a limb to say that both @brp and @alwysonvac are both correct in their respective views. 

In response to what was said earlier in the discussion about the flu being more dangerous, perhaps and perhaps not. We will not be able to do a better analysis until we are able to get a better grip on testing and treatment. Because this virus is so new I think we need to avoid discounting the seriousness of this disease and focus on protecting ourselves and those around us.

The “curve” is going to take longer to flatten if younger adults fail to see the seriousness of this disease. In the last few days a 38 year old and a 17 year old (no known health issues) have succumbed to COVID-19. With increasing numbers of Myocarditis and ARDS, anyone is at risk. 

In a previous post I put out there that individuals should be making educated decisions. I still think that’s good advice.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 26, 2020)

I have scrubbed our plans to visit Hawaii in late May / waely June sue to all the uncertainty and the fact that Wyndham has a March 31 deadline to move points to future years.


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## csodjd (Mar 26, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I have scrubbed our plans to visit Hawaii in late May / waely June sue to all the uncertainty and the fact that Wyndham has a March 31 deadline to move points to future years.


I canceled my Lagoon Tower, because arrival was before May 20. But I'm holding on hope for arrival in Maui for the Marriott May 21. Key is that 14-day quarantine. If that's extended, no point going. If it ends, then we'll decide based on the big picture at that time.


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## brp (Mar 26, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I have scrubbed our plans to visit Hawaii in late May / waely June sue to all the uncertainty and the fact that Wyndham has a March 31 deadline to move points to future years.



The only reasons I still have ours are:
1. I have some confidence that we'll actually be able to go
2. I have nothing to lose by waiting until a few days before

But my confidence is not high.

Cheers.


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## WalnutBaron (Mar 26, 2020)

dsmrp said:


> Let's hope the government can fast track development of a vaccine, or allow commercial companies to research & develop one.  I think anti-viral medications would normally take years. There's one I heard of that was partially tested for Ebola but subsequently dropped, which is being trialed.


The government is already fast-tracking development of a vaccine, and many drug companies are pursuing it. Even so, we're about a year out from having anything available and widely distributed, according to the lead story on last Sunday's _60 Minutes_ program.


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## brp (Mar 26, 2020)

WalnutBaron said:


> The government is already fast-tracking development of a vaccine, and many drug companies are pursuing it. Even so, we're about a year out from having anything available and widely distributed, according to the lead story on last Sunday's _60 Minutes_ program.



There are also tests underway with a number of existing pharmaceuticals so see if they can do anything to mitigate impacts/fatalities. If something comes out of this, deployment of those mitigations could be much sooner. But still unknown.

Cheers.


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## csodjd (Mar 26, 2020)

It is much easier to run an appropriate clinically valid test on a treatment than on a vaccine, especially where there are a lot of candidates for enrollment in the treatment trials. We can expect to see treatment results within a month or so. Vaccine trial results will certainly take a year or more. A sufficiently large number of people have to be vaccinated and tracked over time, and compared with an unvaccinated but risk-matched cohort. But even that can't occur until safety and therapeutic dose profiles are determined, which requires study of the pharmacokinetics (half life, kidney clearance, liver toxicity, etc.) among other things. It's complicated.


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## ocdb8r (Mar 26, 2020)

Thus far most of the discussions about what's next have been very binary: will this "go away" such that we return to normal soon, or by X date....or will things stay locked down as they are for much longer.  I suspect we will actually move toward a "new normal" in-between state whereby certain at risk groups are expected to continue to isolate themselves, certain low-risk groups will get back to closer to normal and those in between will be left to make a judgment call based on their own circumstances.  Once we "flatten the curve" I believe the goal will shift to having measures in place that keep it flat/under the hospital capacity line (rather than trying to further compress it).  That means an acceptance that it will continue to spread and a focus on protecting only the most vulnerable (i.e. those with an unacceptably high mortality rate).  

Based on that, I think there are a number of things coming down the pipeline quicker than the vaccine that will help:

a variety of possible treatments that could improve the mortality rate (anti-virals, biologics and other medications);
an antibody test which will identify those who have already been exposed to the virus and have developed antibodies, making them low risk at getting or transmitting the infection (even if they had no symptoms....or had symptoms but were never able to be tested for live virus) - although it's still not clear how long these antibodies remain effective, there will be an assumption that those with antibodies are likely protected for at least a year; and
more robust and widely available testing for the live virus, which will allow more targeted quarantine measures and exposure tracking.
The million dollar question is what this new normal will look like for travel.  I'm not sure any of us can predict at this time but I think there will be motivation all over the world to find a way to make travel (and tourism) possible in order to get those revenue streams flowing again.


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## brp (Mar 26, 2020)

ocdb8r said:


> Thus far most of the discussions about what's next have been very binary: will this "go away" such that we return to normal soon, or by X date....or will things stay locked down as they are for much longer.  I suspect we will actually move toward a "new normal" in-between state whereby certain at risk groups are expected to continue to isolate themselves, certain low-risk groups will get back to closer to normal and those in between will be left to make a judgment call based on their own circumstances.



Actually, based on what I've been reading (here and elsewhere), I don't think people are really talking "binary." Every ting I've read acknowledges that it will not be gone, and we can't possible isolate long enough for that to happen. I think the reality that it will still be around is pretty prevalent.

Cheers.


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## csodjd (Mar 26, 2020)

brp said:


> Actually, based on what I've been reading (here and elsewhere), I don't think people are really talking "binary." Every ting I've read acknowledges that it will not be gone, and we can't possible isolate long enough for that to happen. I think the reality that it will still be around is pretty prevalent.
> 
> Cheers.


It will be "gone" if/when there is either herd immunity or an effective vaccine (which is a form of herd immunity). But when there's a rapid "POS" test with a treatment that'll make it manageable.


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## pedro47 (Mar 26, 2020)

We have cancel our trip to Hawaii.


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## Luanne (Mar 26, 2020)

We are hoping/planning for March 2021.


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## brp (Mar 26, 2020)

csodjd said:


> It will be "gone" if/when there is either herd immunity or an effective vaccine (which is a form of herd immunity).




Or if we completely isolate for like a year 

Cheers.


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## csodjd (Mar 26, 2020)

brp said:


> Or if we completely isolate for like a year
> 
> Cheers.


I'd run out of wine well before that, so that's off the table.


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## brp (Mar 26, 2020)

csodjd said:


> I'd run out of wine well before that, so that's off the table.



I've got about 450 bottles and a number of local places to get it. Booze, at least, is just not a problem, Hell, excellent choices at CostCo and, once one outwaits the TP rush and goes later in the day, minimal crowds.

Cheers.


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## Luanne (Mar 26, 2020)

brp said:


> I've got about 450 bottles and a number of local places to get it. Booze, at least, is just not a problem, Hell, excellent choices at CostCo and, once one outwaits the TP rush and goes later in the day, minimal crowds.
> 
> Cheers.


Our local Total Wine is still running ads in the paper. Does that mean they are open?


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## 1Kflyerguy (Mar 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Our local Total Wine is still running ads in the paper. Does that mean they are open?



I think they are open, but i have not been in recently.  I know our local store was promoting curbside pickup.


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## brp (Mar 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Our local Total Wine is still running ads in the paper. Does that mean they are open?



California stores seem to be open, so that bodes well.

Cheers.


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## DaveNV (Mar 26, 2020)

brp said:


> California stores seem to be open, so that bodes well.
> 
> Cheers.



In Washington, the marijuana shops are open as well.  It's considered an essential business. 

Dave


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## Luanne (Mar 26, 2020)

brp said:


> California stores seem to be open, so that bodes well.
> 
> Cheers.


Also some wineries are doing shipments and waiving the shipping fees.


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## csodjd (Mar 26, 2020)

brp said:


> California stores seem to be open, so that bodes well.
> 
> Cheers.


I've been ordering lately from Vivino. I've compared their prices to wine.com and Costco, and they are as good or better in most cases. Using the Vivino app at Costco you can take a picture of a bottle and it will tell you their price (along with a full rating and review of the wine). Very handy. You can also take a picture of the wine list in a restaurant (if we ever get to go to one again) and will scan the wine list and rate each wine, and you can get a review of it.


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## pedro47 (Mar 26, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Our local Total Wine is still running ads in the paper. Does that mean they are open?


Total Wines is an essential employers. Liked Costco, Trader Joe’s and your state Alcohol Beverage stores. LOL.


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## Passepartout (Mar 26, 2020)

The State Liquor Stores are clearly essential (and open) here. Booze stuffs $$$ into the State coffers.  In the grocery stores the shelves are full of beer and wine. Just don't expect TP or paper towels to be available to wipe up spills.


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## brp (Mar 26, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Just don't expect TP or paper towels to be available to wipe up spills.



Sorry, who wipes up alcohol spills rather than slurping them up? Business as usual here 

On another board I have read that state liquor stores in PA are not "critical" enough to be open.

Cheers.


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## PigsDad (Mar 26, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> In Washington, the marijuana shops are open as well.  It's considered an essential business.


Same in Colorado.  The dispensaries and liquor stores were specifically listed as "essential" stores that could remain open amid the state-wide shelter in place directive.

Kurt


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## 1Kflyerguy (Mar 26, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Same in Colorado.  The dispensaries and liquor stores were specifically listed as "essential" stores that could remain open amid the state-wide shelter in place directive.
> 
> Kurt



I am not sure if all dispensaries are considered essential in California, but i know the ones licensed to sell "medical" marijuana are technically pharmacies so they are considered essential.


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## Rolltydr (Mar 26, 2020)

DaveNW said:


> In Washington, the marijuana shops are open as well. It's considered an essential business.
> 
> Dave



It should be essential in Washington! DC, I mean.


Harry


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## SmithOp (Mar 27, 2020)

Its a simple explanation, pot shops bring in huge tax revenue, ergo they are essential.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## Tamaradarann (Mar 27, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> The State Liquor Stores are clearly essential (and open) here. Booze stuffs $$$ into the State coffers.  In the grocery stores the shelves are full of beer and wine. Just don't expect TP or paper towels to be available to wipe up spills.



The main reason that the shelves are full with beer and wine is that most places require ID to get alcohol and, therefore, you can't buy it using the delivery or pick-up services that many people are using to comply with social distancing requirements.  I agree that alcohol is highly taxed so that it does bring in money to coffers.  One interesting thing about Hawaii versus NY is that Hawaii taxes food in supermarkets and NY doesn't so that Hawaii is still getting the GET on all the necessary food being bought where NY is not.


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## ljmiii (Mar 27, 2020)

An interesting article in the WSJ talked about 'essentials' around the globe. France has baguettes, Belgium frites, and the Netherlands cannabis.


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## brp (Mar 27, 2020)

Tamaradarann said:


> The main reason that the shelves are full with beer and wine is that most places require ID to get alcohol and, therefore, you can't buy it using the delivery or pick-up services that many people are using to comply with social distancing requirements.



Actually, it can be delivered. it just needs an adult to sign for it. We periodically have wine shipped with no problem.

Cheers.


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 27, 2020)

FWIW I overheard a gentleman at Trader Joes who said that he just bought toilet paper at the liquor store. I presume that makes it "essential."    

Our local ale house has added curbside grocery selling food, bleach and TP via their wholesale connections.  Of course you can also pick up your favorite ale. Prices are reasonable too - less than some of the grocery stores. Nice to support local businesses.


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## Tamaradarann (Mar 27, 2020)

brp said:


> Actually, it can be delivered. it just needs an adult to sign for it. We periodically have wine shipped with no problem.
> 
> Cheers.


We usually get our wine and beer from Sam's or Target where the shelves I am sure are full.  Both of those websites will not sell without an ID to show the checkout person.  We have gotten wine delivered before from a wine wholesaler and an adult only needed to sign on delivery.


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## dayooper (Mar 27, 2020)

Tamaradarann said:


> We usually get our wine and beer from Sam's or Target where the shelves I am sure are full.  Both of those websites will not sell without an ID to show the checkout person.  We have gotten wine delivered before from a wine wholesaler and an adult only needed to sign on delivery.



We’ve bought through Shipt from Meijer and we can buy alcohol. They take a scan of your drivers license as proof of age.


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## easyrider (Mar 27, 2020)

In Washington you can get almost any booze at Costco and a few blocks away from Costco is the pot store right in front of Winco. Both places are busy. Oddly, I have enough booze and pot stocked up to last a long time but I don't really drink, smoke or toke anymore. 

It looks like the family Hawaii trip is off for New Years. I haven't cancelled yet but odds are I will. Never was a huge fan of Waikiki anyway.

Bill


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## Roger830 (Mar 27, 2020)

Two days ago I shopped at a large package store to buy a case of Yuengling and a case Harpoon beer, I ended up with two cases of Harpoon.

There were much less than half the usual number cases. Many brands gone. Plenty of expensive 6-packs in the refrig.

Either they are reluctant to restock or beer is being stockpiled.


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## 1Kflyerguy (Mar 27, 2020)

brp said:


> Actually, it can be delivered. it just needs an adult to sign for it. We periodically have wine shipped with no problem.
> 
> Cheers.




We belong to couple of wine clubs, where the winery ships a case of wine periodically throughout the year.    I noticed the charge from Tobin James winery hit my credit card last weekend,,  had to make a quick call to have the shipment rerouted from work to my home address...   Not sure when i will be back in the office.


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## brp (Mar 27, 2020)

1Kflyerguy said:


> We belong to couple of wine clubs, where the winery ships a case of wine periodically throughout the year.    I noticed the charge from Tobin James winery hit my credit card last weekend,,  had to make a quick call to have the shipment rerouted from work to my home address...   Not sure when i will be back in the office.



We have moved all of our mail to the UPS store in the Village, so they sign for everything. We only belong to local Santa Cruz Mountains wineries where we can pick up. They can hold it for us for now. We'll be back to visit them 

Cheers.


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## Tamaradarann (Mar 28, 2020)

easyrider said:


> In Washington you can get almost any booze at Costco and a few blocks away from Costco is the pot store right in front of Winco. Both places are busy. Oddly, I have enough booze and pot stocked up to last a long time but I don't really drink, smoke or toke anymore.
> 
> It looks like the family Hawaii trip is off for New Years. I haven't cancelled yet but odds are I will. Never was a huge fan of Waikiki anyway.
> 
> Bill



If you go now you would love Waikiki now.  It is more like Molokai than what Waikiki was!!!


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