# Lowest airfares found six weeks before flight, study says



## T_R_Oglodyte (Mar 5, 2012)

from the LA Times:

Lowest airfares found six weeks before flight, study says


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## PigsDad (Mar 6, 2012)

I'd be a nervous wreck if I waited until 6-weeks out!   

I am assuming this study was across all destinations and all time frames.  I wonder how different the data is when you just factor in the leisure travel vs. business travel.  Leisure travel is more likely to be a sub-set of popular destinations, and the bulk of travel on the weekends.  Business travel would be more evenly distributed and more on weekdays.  To me, that might make a big difference as to when, statistically, the airfares would be lowest.

Kurt


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## siesta (Mar 6, 2012)

I typically always book about 4 to 6 weeks out, and have always gotten great flights at high demand times with the exception of the busiest holidays.


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## jlwquilter (Mar 6, 2012)

PigsDad said:


> I'd be a nervous wreck if I waited until 6-weeks out!
> 
> Kurt



That's exactly what I thought when I saw the title. I do so much pre-planning and booking of activites that to not know for sure until 6 weeks out whether or not we were really going would give me heart failure. I get jumpy WAY before then and my DH usually has to talk me into doing what I really want to do - book that ticket with the price I can live with and not ride the emotional roller coaster I get on when I am shopping for airfare any longer than I have to. I HATE that part the worst.


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## JeffW (Mar 6, 2012)

Quoting a section:

_...found that passengers pay the lowest price, nearly 6% below the overall average fare, if they buy six weeks before their flight._

To me, for only 6% (avg) savings, I agree with others - I'd be too scared to wait that long for relatively little savings.

The finding is probably true, as ~6 weeks is probably the bend in the price curve, when prices start to go up because people are getting more desperate.

I'd be curious to see the entire price curve, from 11 months out (5? with Southwest), up to day of departure, and see how much the price compares with the average during that period.  I don't need the 6% savings it it requires waiting until 6 weeks out.  However, hopefully prices aren't 15% above average if you are buying say 3+ months out.  But who knows.

Jeff


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## presley (Mar 6, 2012)

I don't think the 6% savings would cover the cost of the Valiums to avoid the nervous breakdown of not being able to get a flight.


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## Patri (Mar 6, 2012)

And I wonder if they compared the times of departures. I bet the spots left are very early a.m. or redeye, not desirable for all trips.


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## ace2000 (Mar 6, 2012)

Wondering if someone can help me out...  I think it fits into this type of thread.  

I fly very rarely.  What is the process in getting a great deal on a flight?  Priceline or some other method?  I'm trying to keep my ticket price lower than $300.

Thanks!


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## FractionalTraveler (Mar 6, 2012)

As a top tier flyer in 2 programs, my experience is that any data used to determine this statistic is old before it even gets published.

Rates for air travel change dynamically every minute of the day based upon many factors which are outside of your control.

The reality is that deals also exist even up to 1 hour before travel time.  

People have tried to predict this just like they try to predict the stock market futures based upon historical averages of performance.

*A great deal on a flight is to pay what you can afford and you will always be happy with your choice.*


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## JeffW (Mar 6, 2012)

Priceline for hotels can he okay, as the times (checkin ~4pm, checkout ~11am) are fixed (exact hotel, and location, are variables).

However Priceline for airline tickets is a whole different beast.  Unless they changed it, and you can specify flight times, "Tues 3/6" could be a 12:05am flight, or an 11:55pm flight. (actually, I just looked on P/L - between 6a & 10p).  Plus then, who knows what you're routing will be.  There's a LOT of ugly flights out there that still qualify as legal routes.

If there's limited routes between your destinations, P/L might be viable (say, Atlanta to Key West).  But, for say maybe NYC to LAX, geez, couldn't be 50 different routings across a lot of airlines that could get you there. 

If you can handle a 16 hour swing in departure times, don't care about how long it takes to get there, or about FF miles, I guess P/L might be a valid alternative.  Unless you are saving a LOT though, I'm not sure it's worth the risk.

Jeff


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## Neesie (Mar 8, 2012)

I'm inclined to believe this, based on my recent experience.  I have both Spring Break and a 4 day Easter break coming up.  Spring Break flights were extremely high (compared to what I paid in January....another school break).  The lowest fares seemed to be six weeks out.  Now it is two weeks away and they are laughable, they are so high.  

So I attempt to take a long weekend in New Orleans, San Francisco, San Antonio, Savannah or San Diego.  Again, the fares are outrageous because now we are four weeks out.  I guess I'll stay home (sigh).


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## momeason (Mar 8, 2012)

Register what you are looking for with a service like Kayak.com. It will send you alerts when there are price changes. It works across most airlines.


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## Jennie (Mar 12, 2012)

If JetBlue Airline flies to or from your destination, you have some great options that few, if any other companies offer. 

I book early--sometimes 6 months in advance. This allows me to choose the best seats and pay what is usually a low price. However, if at any time the fare goes down, you just call JetBlue and if they can see it online, you receive a credit for the price difference. The credit remains in your TrueBlue account (quick and free to sign up for it) and can be applied toward the purchase of a future ticket. You can even authorize the credit to be applied toward the payment of a ticket for a friend or relative who is purchasing at some future date. 

After receiving the credit, you can even call in again and again if the price for the exact same flight goes lower. This often happens during one day sales. 

A few years ago, I purchased 4 tickets early for myself and family members to attend a family event. The fare went down 4 times over the next 6 months (maybe more, I may not have caught them all). And each time I called, the fare was adjusted down to the lower price. 

JetBlue sells only one way tickets. So if the price of the out-going OR returning flight goes down, each is eligible for the reduction. 

That's only one of the reasons I love this airline. They have very comfortable seats, television screens with numerous stations in front of you, plus many music options.  They also have reasonable fees for baggage check-in (first bag free), change of dates for your flight, etc...


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## MichaelColey (Mar 12, 2012)

The best way to find a low price is by setting up an alert as far in advance as possible.  There most likely WILL be sales at some point, but you never know when.  They're pretty rare 6-12 months out, but they do happen.  Sometimes they'll pop up 3-6 months out.  Sometimes 2-3 months out.  Sometimes 1-2 months out.  Rarely any closer than that, but it does happen on some routes.


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## lily28 (Mar 12, 2012)

what is the website I can check prediction for airfare (buy or wait recommendation)?  I forget the name of the web site. thanks


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## 6scoops (Mar 12, 2012)

As I've said in another post about Southwest Airlines, 6 weeks does seem to be the sweet spot for lowest air.  My husband consults  for Orbitz and this is true according to them as well.


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## MichaelColey (Mar 12, 2012)

Just as a counter-point...  6 weeks often is the sweet spot, but it's also dangerously close to the point where prices often start rising quickly...  Many fares are only valid 30, 21, 14, 10, 7 or 3 days in advance (and only while inventory in specific fare buckets remain).  That's why in the final month prices can often be WAY higher.

And as someone else mentioned, the most convenient/popular times and routes often sell out or go up quicker than the others.  While you might find a cheap flight close in, it may be 6am flight with a 4 hour layover.


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## ace2000 (Mar 12, 2012)

Thanks for the tips everyone!  I've set up an alert on kayak and we'll see what happens.  

I saw a sub-$300 flight a week ago to Baton Rouge and didn't pull the trigger.  Now, they're about $40 to $50 higher.  Hoping to see them drop down a little.


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## JeffW (Mar 12, 2012)

It's also worth noting that with fuel prices going up, airlines keep trying to push through prices increases.  I think last week there was $10 each way for one airline.  

So while you wait for the 'base' fare to go down, it might be that fuel increases offset any effective savings.  I think now a days, especially in talking about the departure date getting closer, while you might save $50, you also very well could pay $150 more.  Unless you're prepared for that, you might just take the current price, and avoid having it go up.

Jeff


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## RX8 (Mar 12, 2012)

*Don't forget to also check the airlines themselves*



ace2000 said:


> Thanks for the tips everyone!  I've set up an alert on kayak and we'll see what happens.
> 
> I saw a sub-$300 flight a week ago to Baton Rouge and didn't pull the trigger.  Now, they're about $40 to $50 higher.  Hoping to see them drop down a little.



While Kayak, Expedia and the others like them should be checked often sometimes the airlines themselves have cheaper fares.  Delta for one also allows you to cancel within 24 hours with no penalty if purchased directly from them.


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## kenie (Mar 12, 2012)

We have been watching prices for our May trip to Cancun. 
Although we live in BC, we were planning on going out of Seattle because it's usually much cheaper than from Vancouver.
We were checking prices about 3 weeks ago on Kayak we found out that Priceline had the flight from YVR for $480 all in with a pretty nice connection.
Needless to say, we jumped on that one and grabbed three tickets.
The next day, prices for that flight were back to $1100.


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## DrBopp (Mar 14, 2012)

*II Platinum Memeber*

As an II Platinum Member, I got a voucher for a companion fare. I used it and got 2 Round Trip tickets from RDU(NC) to San Francisco(SFO) for $660. I checked Priceline, Hotrwire and Southwest along with some generic travel sites and was not able to come anywhere near those prices. All trips both ways are one stop flights. Travel is slated for July 2012.

Gordon


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## TravelMamma (Mar 15, 2012)

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> from the LA Times:
> 
> Lowest airfares found six weeks before flight, study says



I booked my flights to Aruba and periodically would check them to see if I could have gotten them cheaper.  Looking at the exact flights I booked, 6 weeks before our trip, they were $1200 more than what I bought them for.  Boy, am I glad I didn't wait and do the 6 weeks out theory.  I would watch way ahead of time to get a good idea of the range they are going for and then when are at the low end of the range book them.


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## siesta (Mar 15, 2012)

DrBopp said:


> As an II Platinum Member, I got a voucher for a companion fare. I used it and got 2 Round Trip tickets from RDU(NC) to San Francisco(SFO) for $660. I checked Priceline, Hotrwire and Southwest along with some generic travel sites and was not able to come anywhere near those prices. All trips both ways are one stop flights. Travel is slated for July 2012.
> 
> Gordon


that is good to hear. I expected those companion fares to make you book the original at a high price making it not a good value,  but hopefully this is not the case with the II cert.

What restrictions come with the certificate? Where do you have to book thru?


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## DrBopp (Mar 15, 2012)

siesta said:


> that is good to hear. I expected those companion fares to make you book the original at a high price making it not a good value,  but hopefully this is not the case with the II cert.
> 
> What restrictions come with the certificate? Where do you have to book thru?



You book through their site found on the voucher. There are  no restrictions as to when you can travel other than availability, which could be limited. No refunds and changes can be made, but the cost is prohibitive. May think about trip insurance, though I haven't done it.

Gordon


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## klpca (Mar 16, 2012)

Like JetBlue, Alaska is also generous with price drops. I use Yapta to check for price drops after I purchase. They send you an email when the fare drops. I received credit twice for our Mexico flights, and once so far on our Hawaii flight. (I'm hoping for more - at 6 weeks!)


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## hefleycatz (Mar 26, 2012)

Just looked at our booked flight for LV (12 weeks out now) on southwest and our fares had went from $214. to $167.  Nice big credit in our account.   

Maybe at 6 weeks or sooner I'll see another discount.  

lee


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## siesta (Mar 26, 2012)

klpca said:


> Like JetBlue, Alaska is also generous with price drops. I use Yapta to check for price drops after I purchase. They send you an email when the fare drops. I received credit twice for our Mexico flights, and once so far on our Hawaii flight. (I'm hoping for more - at 6 weeks!)


+1 for yapta


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## easyrider (Mar 26, 2012)

PigsDad said:


> I'd be a nervous wreck if I waited until 6-weeks out!
> 
> I am assuming this study was across all destinations and all time frames.  I wonder how different the data is when you just factor in the leisure travel vs. business travel.  Leisure travel is more likely to be a sub-set of popular destinations, and the bulk of travel on the weekends.  Business travel would be more evenly distributed and more on weekdays.  To me, that might make a big difference as to when, statistically, the airfares would be lowest.
> 
> Kurt



Me Too. I just bought airfare today for next winter and was surprised at how much it had gone up. 50,000 miles per ticket + $84.00 for the cheap seats. wow  

Bill


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## Dori (Mar 26, 2012)

Lee, I'm waiting for BUF-LAS for May and the prices went up today! YIKES!. Over $500, whereas last year's fare was under $300. I am really hoping that fares go down from BUF.

Dori


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## MichaelColey (Mar 29, 2012)

I think expecting a lower rate at any ONE particular time is a losing proposition.  Fare sales happen at different times (although usually 1-3 months out), and the best ones are typically VERY short term.  If you really want to catch a low fare, you have to set up an alert and buy it as quickly as possible when the fare sale happens.

In a similar situation, I find that the lowest rental car rates are USUALLY found less than a week out.  But with rental cars, I always book as early as possible and monitor regularly.  When a lower rate comes along, I book it and cancel my previous reservation.  For our current trip, I had a two week Full Size for about $450.  I was able to drop that to $326 a couple months out.  I checked the day before our trip, and the lowest rate was about $1200.  Conventional wisdom failed (big time) there, but the strategy of regular monitoring worked great.


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## siesta (Mar 29, 2012)

MichaelColey said:


> I think expecting a lower rate at any ONE particular time is a losing proposition.  Fare sales happen at different times (although usually 1-3 months out), and the best ones are typically VERY short term.  If you really want to catch a low fare, you have to set up an alert and buy it as quickly as possible when the fare sale happens.
> 
> In a similar situation, I find that the lowest rental car rates are USUALLY found less than a week out.  But with rental cars, I always book as early as possible and monitor regularly.  When a lower rate comes along, I book it and cancel my previous reservation.  For our current trip, I had a two week Full Size for about $450.  I was able to drop that to $326 a couple months out.  I checked the day before our trip, and the lowest rate was about $1200.  Conventional wisdom failed (big time) there, but the strategy of regular monitoring worked great.


michael, if younhavent already check out autoslash.com , it basically does what you do but automatic for you.


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## MichaelColey (Mar 29, 2012)

siesta said:


> michael, if younhavent already check out autoslash.com , it basically does what you do but automatic for you.


Yep, I do use AutoSlash.com, but I seldom take their recommendations.  I can usually get better deals from coupons and contract codes I find on the web.  Also, I prefer to use National (which AutoSlash doesn't fully support), where I have Executive status.  With that status, I can reserve a mid-size and pick any vehicle from the Executive Aisle.  On our current trip ($326 for two weeks) we found a brand new Suburban (with TV screens in the back!) on the Executive Aisle.  Perfect for us.  But the AutoSlash emails do remind me to go check rates if I haven't checked them lately.


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## siesta (Mar 29, 2012)

MichaelColey said:


> Yep, I do use AutoSlash.com, but I seldom take their recommendations.  I can usually get better deals from coupons and contract codes I find on the web.  Also, I prefer to use National (which AutoSlash doesn't fully support), where I have Executive status.  With that status, I can reserve a mid-size and pick any vehicle from the Executive Aisle.  On our current trip ($326 for two weeks) we found a brand new Suburban (with TV screens in the back!) on the Executive Aisle.  Perfect for us.  But the AutoSlash emails do remind me to go check rates if I haven't checked them lately.


 I too prefer National. Emerald Aisle for me as well


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