# US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear



## DrQ (Jul 28, 2022)

*US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear*








						US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear
					

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession. The decline that the Commerce Department reported Thursday in the gross domestic product — the...




					apnews.com


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## MrockStar (Jul 28, 2022)

Bummer.


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## SmithOp (Jul 28, 2022)

The horse has left the barn, it's already a recession.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


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## GetawaysRus (Jul 28, 2022)

They must have known about this a few days ago. That would explain why Yellen opened her mouth to try to change the definition of what is considered a recession.

In addition to the horse leaving the barn, the inflation genie got out of its bottle a number of months ago. It's difficult to get that genie back into the bottle.


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## bluehende (Jul 28, 2022)

Here is a good source to defining what a recession is.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/what-is-a-recession/

*Official Recession Definition*
During a recession, the economy struggles, people lose work, companies make fewer sales and the country’s overall economic output declines. The point where the economy officially falls into a recession depends on a variety of factors.

In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the authority that defines the starting and ending dates of U.S. recessions. NBER has its own definition of what constitutes a recession, namely “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”


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## MrockStar (Jul 28, 2022)

More new word definitions nonsense !


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## bluehende (Jul 28, 2022)

MrockStar said:


> More new word definitions nonsense !


1974 and 1978 is new.  That was when those two entities defined a recession.


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## Rolltydr (Jul 28, 2022)

THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!  The markets aren’t going to like this news at all! Let’s take a look.



Oh, wait.


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## Tia (Jul 28, 2022)

Google the word recession ->
''a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
"the country is in the depths of a recession"  ''


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## Rolltydr (Jul 28, 2022)

Tia said:


> Google the word recession ->
> ''a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
> "the country is in the depths of a recession"  ''


An awful lot of people want this to be true. Sad.


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## DrQ (Jul 28, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!  The markets aren’t going to like this news at all! Let’s take a look.
> View attachment 61153
> Oh, wait.


Wall Street is betting on the upcoming misery of the general population.


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## DrQ (Jul 28, 2022)

Biggest Winners And Losers From The Fed's Interest Rate Hike | Bankrate
					

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates by 0.75 percentage point, following its Nov. 1-2 meeting, bumping the fed funds rate to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent.



					www.bankrate.com


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## Rolltydr (Jul 28, 2022)

DrQ said:


> Wall Street is betting on the upcoming misery of the general population.


Upcoming? It seems about half the population has been miserable for years, is miserable now, and intends to stay miserable! They complain about the economy, regardless of the numbers at any given time. They want to be miserable and nobody’s gonna stop them!


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## MrockStar (Jul 28, 2022)

Yup ask the 850 7-11  corporate workers who where layed off this week if they think the current recession is responsible for their layoff.


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## DrQ (Jul 28, 2022)

Tech Layoffs: US Startups And Tech Companies With Job Cuts In 2022
					

Tech layoffs in 2022 have included cuts at Netflix, Better, Fast and other U.S. tech companies. We track all the notable tech and startup layoffs of 2022.




					news.crunchbase.com
				



.









						These Are Some Of The Tech Companies That Have Paused Hiring
					

We’ve rounded up some of the tech companies that have said they’d slow down or put a freeze on hiring amid the market downturn.




					news.crunchbase.com
				












						'It was devastating': Inside the 'bloodbath' at 7-Eleven, where nearly 900 corporate jobs were just cut
					

"People were crying and shocked — people who were total superstars last year," one employee said. "Stellar people were getting laid off."




					www.businessinsider.com
				






			https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/26/nearly-half-of-americans-fall-deeper-in-debt-as-inflation-boosts-costs.html


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## Rolltydr (Jul 28, 2022)

Misery loves company.


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## DrQ (Jul 28, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> Misery loves company.


I'm glad things are going well for you. Circumstances are favorable for my family too, but that does not make me myopic to hard working people out there suffering now.


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## PigsDad (Jul 29, 2022)

Saying that we aren't in a recession is just pure political manipulation.  Let's call a duck a duck -- we are in a recession by definition.  Every recession is different, and this one is characterized by an unusually low unemployment rate and high inflation, but it is a recession none the less.

I'm experienced enough that I no longer "fear" a recession.  It is a natural economic cycle and if you spend your time looking at the opportunities a recession may present vs. fearing it, you can come out much stronger on the other side.  But that wouldn't sell news stories, so we have all of these "recession fear" stories in the media.

Kurt


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## Rolltydr (Jul 29, 2022)

Stocks rally to cap a winning week, major averages post best month since 2020 — CNBC
					

The three major averages posted their best month since 2020 as investors looked past inflation and recession concerns.




					stocks.apple.com
				




There’s good economic news and bad economic news, as there always has been and always will be.


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## Rolltydr (Jul 29, 2022)

DrQ said:


> I'm glad things are going well for you. Circumstances are favorable for my family too, but that does not make me myopic to hard working people out there suffering now.


 I care about the people who are having a rough time. I don’t care about the people who are doing pretty well but are complaining anyway to make political points that support their positions. History shows us that bad economic times happen under both parties and good economic times happen under both parties. That’s why they call them *economic cycles*.

I‘m not accusing you of doing that because you post some very good information and make valid points. Some others, however, just complain, complain, complain, and make subtle little references that expose their true intent. I try to make sure they end up on my Ignore list.


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## Brett (Jul 29, 2022)

With a strong job market and unemployment at a 50 year low the Wall Street Journal calls this a 'strange' recession

https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-economy-unemployment-jobs-11656947596


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## TravelTime (Jul 29, 2022)

The concept of the Anxious Index is interesting:

*The Anxious Index*
….There is one caveat: Professional economists are almost always late in recognizing the start of a recession. Why? They are making judgments based on delayed data, and, like other human beings, they are susceptible to irrational optimism.

Historically, when economic forecasters have said that the odds of a near-term recession are at least 30 percent, it means that a recession is actually more likely than not. I’ve referred to that number in the past as the Anxious Index. What is it now? About 44 percent, according to the most recent Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters. The Anxious Index is flashing red…..










						The Big Economic Question
					

It is not whether the U.S. is in a recession. It’s whether the economy will soon worsen.




					www.nytimes.com


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## DrQ (Jul 29, 2022)

Brett said:


> With a strong job market and unemployment at a 50 year low the Wall Street Journal calls this a 'strange' recession


With the layoffs in the tech sector, that "strong job market" may be for low paying jobs with little or no benefits.


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## DrQ (Jul 29, 2022)

*Key Fed inflation measure hits new 40-year high of 6.8% as shrinking economy puts new pressure on central bank's plan to raise interest rates*








						Key Fed inflation measure hits new 40-year high of 6.8%
					

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index soared 6.8 percent in the 12 months through June, the biggest increase since January 1982 and a jump from May's reading of 6.3 percent.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 29, 2022)

Brett said:


> With a strong job market and unemployment at a 50 year low the Wall Street Journal calls this a 'strange' recession
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-economy-unemployment-jobs-11656947596



Employment is a trailing indicator - it always has been. It trails on the way down and trails on the way back up. Perhaps you remember the period from 2010 to 2014 (or so) the "jobless recovery"?


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## Rolltydr (Jul 29, 2022)

DrQ said:


> With the layoffs in the tech sector, that "strong job market" may be for low paying jobs with little or no benefits.


Do you acknowledge any good news, such as in the last 2 articles that Brett and I linked to? I do acknowledge there is bad news, such as rising food costs, decreased production numbers, etc. How about it? Can you post some positive news?


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## DrQ (Jul 29, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> Do you acknowledge any good news, such as in the last 2 articles that Brett and I linked to? I do acknowledge there is bad news, such as rising food costs, decreased production numbers, etc. How about it? Can you post some positive news?


I only see one link from @Brett  in this thread behind a paywall and almost a month ago before the tech job layoffs.

This is the time to look for bargains to place in your portfolio, there is no question. BUT, when you look at how many families are living paycheck to paycheck with little or no savings, they will have little opportunity to take advantage of this time.









						Survey: Majority Of US Households Uneasy With Level Of Emergency Savings | Bankrate
					

Fewer U.S. adults report having no savings at all, but more households have seen their emergency account balances decline than rise in the past year.



					www.bankrate.com
				











						Report: 36% of Consumers Earning $250K+ Now Live Paycheck-to-Paycheck
					

New Reality Check: The Paycheck-To-Paycheck Report: The High Earners Edition examines the finances of high-income U.S. consumers living paycheck to paycheck.




					www.pymnts.com
				





			https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/more-than-half-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-amid-inflation.html
		

*Credit card balances contribute to financial vulnerability*​Those struggling to afford their day-to-day lifestyle tend to rely more on credit cards and carry a higher monthly balance, making them financially vulnerable, the survey said.​Overall, credit card balances rose year over year, reaching $841 billion in the first three months of 2022, according to a separate report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.​Raising interest rates to combat inflation will put more pressure on this population.

Also, some businesses will borrow money to make payroll while waiting for accounts payable to clear. The increase in interest will cut into profit and will affect salaries further magnifying inflation.


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## Rolltydr (Jul 29, 2022)

DrQ said:


> I only see one link from @Brett  in this thread behind a paywall and almost a month ago before the tech job layoffs.
> 
> This is the time to look for bargains to place in your portfolio, there is no question. BUT, when you look at how many families are living paycheck to paycheck with little or no savings, they will have little opportunity to take advantage of this time.
> 
> ...


Hmm. And, yet, you stated above that you are doing well. If the whole economy is collapsing as your constant posts of bad news would indicate, how are you still doing okay? 

The truth is, there are tens of millions of people who are doing well, right there along with you. There are also tens of millions of people who are struggling and living paycheck to paycheck. There are tens of millions who are somewhere in between. Can you name a time in our countries’ history when that has not been the case? 

 What would you do to change the current economic trends so that you could post positive numbers and feel good about the economy? And, remember, this is an economics discussion, because:

*Avoid posting about politics, religion, or contentious social issues*



> Unless directly related to timesharing, such discussions are prohibited in these forums, including TUG Lounge. We've been down that road before, it was ugly, and we are not going there again.


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## Rolltydr (Jul 29, 2022)

S&P 500, Nasdaq register biggest monthly gains since 2020 — Reuters
					

U.S. stocks added to their recent rally on Friday after upbeat forecasts from Apple and Amazon.com, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their biggest monthly percentage gains since 2020.




					stocks.apple.com


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## GetawaysRus (Jul 29, 2022)

One of the few recent upsides to the current economy is that the interest rate at many of the online banks we use has been moving up. For years, we were getting a paltry return on our cash savings. But I noticed today (as I was transferring funds out of Chase because Chase pays me peanuts) that one of our online savings accounts is now up to 2% APY. Others are at 1.25%, and I suspect these may rise after the Fed's .75% rate increase this past week.

The increased interest doesn't cover inflation, but it is at least partial relief.


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## DrQ (Jul 29, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> Hmm. And, yet, you stated above that you are doing well. If the whole economy is collapsing as your constant posts of bad news would indicate, *how are you still doing okay?*
> 
> The truth is, there are tens of millions of people who are doing well, right there along with you. There are also tens of millions of people who are struggling and living paycheck to paycheck. There are tens of millions who are somewhere in between. Can you name a time in our countries’ history when that has not been the case?


There is an old saying: "I'd rather be lucky than good any day."  My only smart move was made when I was 18 and decided to get my college degree in engineering. I have always been in technology.

I was in CADD/CAM so when my job of 13 years was downsized, I moved into IT. When 2007 hit, I was working for a company which had a lock on software which could spot mortgage fraud. I worked solidly through that downturn.

We knew people in church who were in mid level management that found themselves unemployed at 50 and were effectively retired. These were good hard working people who were wiped out and found themselves working in fast food, delivery and whatever to hold on to their house, maybe.

I was laid off in my early 60's but was able to find a job, which would not be the case in today's market. In the last 30 days, the unsolicited requests for resume submissions have dried up. We have savings to wait out the market and I'm at an age where I could apply for Social Security.



Rolltydr said:


> What would you do to change the current economic trends so that you could post positive numbers and feel good about the economy? And, remember, this is an economics discussion...


There is *nothing* that I can do. There is really nothing politicians can do.

Remember, when Ford started paying a living wage (actually it was James Couzens) and provided stability for their workforce and we emerged from the Gilded Age. Make no mistake, the "new" gig-economy is just a new face on Piece Work. The establishment of a fair wage allowed for the establishment of a strong middle class which also acted as a consumer class.

Since the 1990's the middle class has been under attack from globalization.


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## MrockStar (Jul 29, 2022)

Yup.


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## DrQ (Jul 29, 2022)

*Walmart Hawks Refurbished Goods to Inflation-Squeezed Shoppers*








						Walmart Hawks Refurbished Goods to Inflation-Squeezed Shoppers -  BNN Bloomberg
					

Walmart Inc. has a new sales pitch for consumers contending with soaring prices: Buy used goods.




					www.bnnbloomberg.ca


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## Rolltydr (Jul 29, 2022)

We have very similar backgrounds. I also had a career in IT. I, however, was not laid off and didn’t have to find a job in my 60’s, at least not yet. My wife and I both come from very poor families in rural Alabama. We worked hard and were successful, despite neither of us having a college degree. DW worked as a civil service employee before becoming a federal law enforcement officer in her mid-thirties. She retired at 57, the mandatory retirement age at that time because of the physical requirements of the job. I worked in IT for a large company and was fortunate enough to retire at 58. I turn 68 in October and am just now considering SS, but will try to hold off until 70.

There are millions of others out there just like us. I agree with you that there is nothing we can do to “fix it” I also agree there is nothing the politicians can do. I’m a firm believer they can do nothing to help, but they can certainly do harm if they try too hard. I’d much rather they stay out of it and let the cycles do what they will. Most of us can ride out the bad times and we should help those less fortunate than us as much as possible.

As you can tell, I’m very opinionated, and I’m glad to share my opinions when anyone asks or when someone pushes my buttons. I used to watch a specific TV news network that leans my way. I finally realized that I was angry and negative most of the time because what I was watching was feeding that to me. I went cold turkey on tv news and instead searched for sources that only published good news. My demeanor improved tremendously and I’m a lot happier, and more positive, than I used to be. That’s why it bothers me when I see anyone posting only negative news and opinions. I know everything isn’t rosy and that some are hurting. I also know there are companies that are doing well. There are entrepreneurs who have taken opportunities to follow their dreams the last couple of years and leave low paying jobs that they hated. It’s showing signs of slowing down, but so many people, including me, took advantage of the equity they had built in their home to purchase a new home in a new location where they want to live. i now enjoy looking for the good news rather than sitting back and letting the news networks force-feed me their 24/7 bad news. I will acknowledge the negative news, but, I refuse to dwell on it.

i do disagree with your last point. Globalization isn’t attacking anything. With your history in IT, you know how technology has brought the world closer together. It has moved faster than we humans have been able to adjust and plan for it. It will take us time, but we will figure it out, if we can keep the politicians out of the way, and the world will be a better place. People who are hurting need help, regardless of their geography. Technology means that we can know someone who lives in another country just as well as we know someone who lives down the street. Why should we focus on helping one but not the other?

.


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## timsi (Jul 29, 2022)

Two negative quarters when the real wages are down significantly ,  the participation rate is lower than pre-Covid and the prices are up 7  or 8%, this is not an enthusiastic endorsement of how things are going.


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## DrQ (Jul 29, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> We have very similar backgrounds. I also had a career in IT. I, however, was not laid off and didn’t have to find a job in my 60’s, at least not yet. My wife and I both come from very poor families in rural Alabama. We worked hard and were successful, despite neither of us having a college degree. DW worked as a civil service employee before becoming a federal law enforcement officer in her mid-thirties. She retired at 57, the mandatory retirement age at that time because of the physical requirements of the job. I worked in IT for a large company and was fortunate enough to retire at 58. I turn 68 in October and am just now considering SS, but will try to hold off until 70.



Do yourself a favor a read about James Couzens:




__





						Independent man: the life of Senator James Couzens - Wayne State University Digital Collections
					





					digital.library.wayne.edu
				




Then google Bath Township in Michigan and you will see what an extraordinary man he was. It's not the politics, it's the character of the people.


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## DrQ (Jul 30, 2022)

*BANK OF AMERICA MEMO, REVEALED: “WE HOPE” CONDITIONS FOR AMERICAN WORKERS WILL GET WORSE*
*The financial behemoth privately fears that regular people have too much leverage.*








						Bank of America Memo, Revealed: “We Hope” Conditions for American Workers Will Get Worse
					

The financial behemoth privately fears that regular people have too much leverage.




					theintercept.com


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Jul 30, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> Hmm. And, yet, you stated above that you are doing well. If the whole economy is collapsing as your constant posts of bad news would indicate, how are you still doing okay?
> 
> The truth is, there are tens of millions of people who are doing well, right there along with you. There are also tens of millions of people who are struggling and living paycheck to paycheck. There are tens of millions who are somewhere in between. Can you name a time in our countries’ history when that has not been the case?
> 
> ...


If I may point out, current economic environments have an outsized impact on the timeshare resale market. . .


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## Rolltydr (Jul 30, 2022)

DrQ said:


> Do yourself a favor a read about James Couzens:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I would actually prefer to have a conversation about your views and why you think globalization is bad. In your own words. When someone starts a sentence by telling me, “Do yourself a favor…”, it negates anything they suggest. It’s similar to how the word *but *negates anything you said prior, “*do yourself a favor*” negates anything you say after. It’s very condescending, in my opinion.

Although I am a product of the Alabama education system, I can read and I did google Mr. Couzens. He sounds like a very interesting person and was very successful. He was also very kind in donating money to rebuild the school after the massacre. In the context of this discussion about the economy and globalization, what is your point in wanting me to read about him?

*Edited to clarify ending question.


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## Carolinian (Jul 30, 2022)

SmithOp said:


> The horse has left the barn, it's already a recession.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk



Yeah, it amazing how some are trying to change the definition.  A recession has always been defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth.  Unfortunately, that has arrived.

It was amusing that Wikipedia was feverishly at work trying to change the definition on their site and barring anyone else from changing it back to the longstanding definition.


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## Brett (Jul 30, 2022)

Carolinian said:


> Yeah, it amazing how some are trying to change the definition.  A recession has always been defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth.  Unfortunately, that has arrived.
> 
> It was amusing that Wikipedia was feverishly at work trying to change the definition on their site and barring anyone else from changing it back to the longstanding definition.



amusing ---  but still a strange "recession"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-economy-unemployment-jobs-11656947596


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## Rolltydr (Aug 3, 2022)

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/dow-futures-gain-slightly-after-the-three-major-averages-notched-a-second-day-of-losses.html
		



Actually, the Dow is up 400+ at this moment, based on strong economic data and earnings.


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## Rolltydr (Aug 3, 2022)

Ford’s U.S. Sales Climbed 37% in July From Prior Year’s Slump — The Wall Street Journal
					

Auto maker says increase came as industrywide U.S. sales dropped 11% in July




					stocks.apple.com


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## PigsDad (Aug 3, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/dow-futures-gain-slightly-after-the-three-major-averages-notched-a-second-day-of-losses.html
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Rolltydr said:


> Ford’s U.S. Sales Climbed 37% in July From Prior Year’s Slump — The Wall Street Journal
> 
> 
> Auto maker says increase came as industrywide U.S. sales dropped 11% in July
> ...


Great news, but neither of these negates the fact that the US had a negative GDP for two quarters in a row, which is by all historical accounts the definition of a recession.  These reports might indicate that this will be a short recession, but we are in a recession none the less.  We can all hope it is short.

Kurt


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## Rolltydr (Aug 10, 2022)

Some good economic news linked below. Also, gas was $3.55/gal at Costco in St. Augustine this afternoon and  DW actually saw gas as low as $3.19/gal in Georgia today.









						Price hikes took a breather in July, fueling hopes that inflation has peaked
					

Rising inflation poses a growing challenge for the Federal Reserve, which has committed to reining in soaring prices while trying to avoid plunging the economy into a recession.




					www.cnn.com
				












						Stocks Rally After Encouraging Inflation Data — The Wall Street Journal
					

Report on prices spurs bets the Fed won’t need to raise short-term interest rates as high as previously anticipated




					stocks.apple.com
				












						Stocks soar, S&P 500 hits highest level in three months after key report shows slowdown in inflation — CNBC
					

Investors eyed the July consumer price index report Wednesday, which came in lighter than expected.




					stocks.apple.com


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## MrockStar (Aug 10, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> Some good economic news linked below. Also, gas was $3.55/gal at Costco in St. Augustine this afternoon and  DW actually saw gas as low as $3.19/gal in Georgia today.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It wont last very long. Enjoy it while we can.


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## geist1223 (Aug 10, 2022)

Why are we celebrating? The inflation rate was still 8.5%. I guess that is better than 9.1%. No reason to celebrate.


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## bluehende (Aug 10, 2022)

geist1223 said:


> Why are we celebrating? The inflation rate was still 8.5%. I guess that is better than 9.1%. No reason to celebrate.


Because it was zero for the last 30 days.


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## MrockStar (Aug 10, 2022)

Not at the grocery store.


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## bluehende (Aug 10, 2022)

MrockStar said:


> Not at the grocery store.


Yes some things go up and some come down....that is how zero works.


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## Rolltydr (Aug 10, 2022)

bluehende said:


> Because it was zero for the last 30 days.


Thanks for responding. He’s on my ignore list so I, fortunately, didn’t see his unhappy response to the good news. Why do people want to be miserable?


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## bluehende (Aug 10, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> Thanks for responding. He’s on my ignore list so I, fortunately, didn’t see his unhappy response to the good news. Why do people want to be miserable?


Political reasons.


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## MrockStar (Aug 10, 2022)

bluehende said:


> Yes some things go up and some come down....that is how zero works.


New math?


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## bluehende (Aug 10, 2022)

MrockStar said:


> New math?


Non denial math.


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## MrockStar (Aug 10, 2022)

Ok keep drinking that Kool-Aid.


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## emeryjre (Aug 10, 2022)

It is easy to get wrapped up in bad news.  Many of the price spikes occurring over the last 12 months have subsided.  

But I have heard very little about the drop in gas prices, lumber prices, mortgage rates.  I have heard very little about no change in food prices in the last 2 months if I listen to certain segments of the news.

I monitor my financial news from non political sources and am not at all surprised by the good news on price stability.  

Certain segments of news broadcasters want us to believe the worst to help with the midterm elections.  OK, I understand that and do not allow that to cloud my financial decisions.

I want facts in my life.  I do not want fiction.  I do not know any good investors/traders that make their decisions on emotions.  And I know a few.


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## bluehende (Aug 10, 2022)

MrockStar said:


> Ok keep drinking that Kool-Aid.


So gas prices did not go down in July fueling the decrease in inflation just like when they went up they fueled the rise in inflation.....man did I fall for that hook, line and sinker.

PS they have already dropped in August by about 10% here or am I being fooled again.


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## timsi (Aug 10, 2022)

bluehende said:


> Yes some things go up and some come down....that is how zero works.


So 11 months ago something was 100 dollars, a month ago it was 108  and  this month it is still 108. Hurray!


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## bluehende (Aug 10, 2022)

timsi said:


> So 11 months ago something was 100 dollars, a month ago it was 108  and  this month it is still 108. Hurray!


And one month ago things cost 100 and today they cost 100.....hurrah.

Why is it so hard to admit that the report was good news.  No one is saying that it negates 12 months of bad numbers but denying that inflation was zero over the last month is not great news is just ludicrous.  If the July numbers negated all of that it would mean our economy is in deep trouble.  Who would want that?


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## timsi (Aug 10, 2022)

bluehende said:


> And one month ago things cost 100 and today they cost 100.....hurrah.
> 
> Why is it so hard to admit that the report was good news.  No one is saying that it negates 12 months of bad numbers but denying that inflation was zero over the last month is not great news is just ludicrous.


Because most people do not make  8 or 9 % more than a year ago so the fact that the prices did not go up in the last month is not a time for celebration since the prices are still a lot higher relative to income.


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## bluehende (Aug 10, 2022)

timsi said:


> Because most people do not make  8 or 9 % more than a year ago so the fact that the prices did not go up in the last month is not a time for celebration since the prices are still a lot higher relative to income.


And have been for about 50 years now.  And absolutely yes.  The fact that inflation has peaked and should continue to come down is absolutely reason to celebrate.  The markets seemed to agree with me today.  How can you stand on the position that inflation is horrible but no inflation last month is somehow not significant.


----------



## easyrider (Aug 10, 2022)

This is a different type of recession. It has been good for us personally because of inflation but I have noticed it has been hard on many. 

Bill


----------



## timsi (Aug 11, 2022)

bluehende said:


> And have been for about 50 years now.  And absolutely yes.  The fact that inflation has peaked and should continue to come down is absolutely reason to celebrate.  The markets seemed to agree with me today.  How can you stand on the position that inflation is horrible but no inflation last month is somehow not significant.


Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from July 2021 to July 2022. The inflation is the highest in 50 years. No, it has not been like this for 50 years now. 
Maybe the inflation is peaking, who knows, a month is not a trend. But at what price, we have had 2 negative quarters so far and the Fed had to be rather aggressive in raising interest rates, trillions of dollars lost in the equity and the bond markets.


----------



## AnnaS (Aug 11, 2022)

Gas is averaging where I live around $4.49 - has it gone down a bit (40/50 cents)?  Yes and happy but hopefully it keeps going down.  Still way too high.  

Prices at the grocery store - crazy.  Even sale prices are high.  I hope they go down too.

Bad news sells/gets viewers attention (for many).  I don't need to watch the news to know what I am paying at the pump or at the store.  

I love good news/positive stories too.  Wish there was more of it.  Right now - this little bit of good news is giving some hope but not fast enough.  We make adjustments and are in for the ride.


----------



## Superchief (Aug 11, 2022)

timsi said:


> So 11 months ago something was 100 dollars, a month ago it was 108  and  this month it is still 108. Hurray!


And two years ago it was 90! I haven't seen anything except gas go down recently, including food, building materials, or home supplies. Having my driveway sealed costs double what it did 3 years ago.  I'll start celebrating when food and energy are only 10% higher than they were two years ago. When gas went up to almost $5, I predicted it would go back down to under $4 right before the elections. Hmmm!


----------



## Brett (Aug 11, 2022)

easyrider said:


> This is a different type of recession. It has been good for us personally because of inflation but I have noticed it has been hard on many.
> 
> Bill




"good" recession,  ---   "bad" recession -    but still not a "monster" recession 

The Nasdaq Composite Is Back in a Bull Market
The technology-focused index is up 20% from its low in mid-June
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-08-10-2022-11660116855


----------



## Rolltydr (Aug 11, 2022)

timsi said:


> Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from July 2021 to July 2022. The inflation is the highest in 50 years. No, it has not been like this for 50 years now.
> Maybe the inflation is peaking, who knows, a month is not a trend. But at what price, we have had 2 negative quarters so far and the Fed had to be rather aggressive in raising interest rates, trillions of dollars lost in the equity and the bond markets.


The only people who lost actually anything in the market are the ones who cashed out. As Brett’s post above shows, the market is bouncing back. My portfolio has increased quite nicely the past month or so.


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## bluehende (Aug 11, 2022)

timsi said:


> Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from July 2021 to July 2022. The inflation is the highest in 50 years. No, it has not been like this for 50 years now.
> Maybe the inflation is peaking, who knows, a month is not a trend. But at what price, we have had 2 negative quarters so far and the Fed had to be rather aggressive in raising interest rates, trillions of dollars lost in the equity and the bond markets.


I started working in 1972.  Trust me the average worker has been losing income since then.


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## bluehende (Aug 11, 2022)

Superchief said:


> And two years ago it was 90! I haven't seen anything except gas go down recently, including food, building materials, or home supplies. Having my driveway sealed costs double what it did 3 years ago.  I'll start celebrating when food and energy are only 10% higher than they were two years ago. When gas went up to almost $5, I predicted it would go back down to under $4 right before the elections. Hmmm!


Some that I saw that is actually in the report.

new cars
apparel
airline tickets

A little over 2 yrs ago oil futures were negative.  Do you really want to go there again.  In this case a pandemic destroying demand for oil.  That is one of the reasons we have huge increases now.  Low gas prices usually indicate real problems in the economy that are killing demand.





__





						Loading…
					





					www.cnbc.com
				




A historic drop occurred on April 20,  when the price of West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by almost 300%, trading at around negative $37 per barrel. 

The price of oil has steadily recovered, jumping by nearly 90% in May and registered the best month on record for WTI. However, the petroleum industry is still reeling from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Major companies like Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips have announced deep production cuts and Whiting Petroleum in April became the first major company in the industry to file for bankruptcy protection.




The crash in demand for oil that followed the pandemic played a major role in the move to negative prices. “At the trough, we probably saw demand in April bottom out down 30%. So we’ve never seen anything like this certainly in the last 40 years since world oil markets have developed,” said Severin Borenstein, a professor of business at the University of California, Berkeley.


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## bluehende (Aug 11, 2022)

timsi said:


> But at what price, we have had 2 negative quarters so far


Let's talk about this.  The main reason for the negative quarters is imports and declining government spending.  Here is a balanced article if you want to see why we had 2 quarters of negative growth.  I note you again ignore that the 4th quarter of 2021 growth was 6.9% annually.  I get it inflation has to be yearly but gdp growth is quarterly.  Wonder why?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-first-quarter-51651096830

The drop-off in the first quarter was led by a surge in imports, which count as a subtraction in the calculation of GDP and jumped to a record high in March as Americans began buying more goods from overseas. That reflects in part what Adams called a huge backlog of ships waiting to be unloaded in U.S. ports at the end of 2021 that were not ultimately delivered until the first quarter of 2022. 

yearly numbers as reported





__





						Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
					

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on...




					www.bea.gov
				





*Current‑dollar GDP* increased 7.8 percent at an annual rate, or $465.1 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $24.85 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP increased 6.6 percent, or $383.9 billion (tables 1 and 3).


And a good one from AP that shows the negative growth is all from the correction of inflation in q2.









						US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear
					

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession. The decline that the Commerce Department reported Thursday in the gross domestic product — the...




					apnews.com
				




Before accounting for surging prices, the economy actually grew at a 7.8% annual pace in the April-June quarter. But inflation wiped out that gain and then some and produced a negative GDP number.

And despite widespread pay raises, prices are surging faster than wages. In June, average hourly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, slid 3.6% from a year earlier, the 15th straight year-over-year drop.


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## emeryjre (Aug 11, 2022)

Bluehende,

I appreciate your analysis of the economy in a factual manner. 

If people want to see the world in a negative light, they will.  There are plenty of newstainment people ready and willing to feed the dark side of the human personality.

I know one thing.  I can only control how I react to the steady flow of information.   

emeryjre


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## Superchief (Aug 11, 2022)

bluehende said:


> I started working in 1972.  Trust me the average worker has been losing income since then.


Everyone except for top executives. The ratio of executive pay over avg worker pay is obscene.

I also want to add athletes, entertainers, and politicians to the 'gain' list.


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## Superchief (Aug 11, 2022)

bluehende said:


> Some that I saw that is actually in the report.
> 
> new cars
> apparel
> ...


Gas prices were relatively low in 2019 when the economy was very strong. However, I agree that the increase in US production created greater supply that decreased oil prices and set the industry up for the crash caused by the pandemic. I think more could have been done to encourage US production to stabilize prices more quickly. I'd like to see prices stabilize at about $3 per gallon. This is high enough to discourage people from buying gas guzzling vehicles, but low enough to to be affordable to consumers and shippers. 








						U.S.: gas prices by year 1990-2021 | Statista
					

In 2021, customers at U.S.




					www.statista.com


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## bluehende (Aug 11, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Gas prices were relatively low in 2019 when the economy was very strong. However, I agree that the increase in US production created greater supply that decreased oil prices and set the industry up for the crash caused by the pandemic. I think more could have been done to encourage US production to stabilize prices more quickly. I'd like to see prices stabilize at about $3 per gallon. This is high enough to discourage people from buying gas guzzling vehicles, but low enough to to be affordable to consumers and shippers.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


  I agree that around 3 bucks would be pretty neutral right now.  Oil though is a market and somehow I think interfering with this would be a mistake.  As in any cyclical market enjoy the good times and prepare for the bad.  As a consumer the economy was down and gas prices were low.  Now the other side of that cycle is here.  At some point in the future it will go the other way.  Russian oil will make it back on the market and with projections of record us output next year supply will increase.  My personal opinion is we give enough subsidies.  Below is worldwide.









						Energy subsidies – Topics - IEA
					

Explore analysis, reports, news and events about Energy subsidies




					www.iea.org
				




But subsidies stormed back in 2021 to USD 440 billion -- almost back to 2018 levels – as energy prices and use rebounded, and as policy makers were hesitant to continue reforming subsidy schemes during such an uncertain economic recovery.


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## geist1223 (Aug 11, 2022)

If I read CNN correctly it was mostly the the drop in Gas that caused the decline but that mainly geoce4y store items continue to go up.


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## emeryjre (Aug 11, 2022)

Here is an interesting article on Oil Prices from 2010 to 2019.

From the Wall Street Journal News Section.  Not an Op-ed

I will past the article link at the end.  The information I posted is from the article.

The article says that the fracking industry lost 300 Billion dollars from 2010 to 2019.

The growth in production was fueled by investors that LOST ALL THEIR INVESTMENT during this time period.

 Thank the hedge funds, insurance companies, stockholders, individual investors, etc. etc. for the lower oil prices prior to the pandemic.

******
The shale boom transformed the U.S. from a net importer to a net exporter of petroleum and gas. Investors motivated by low interest rates plowed into fracking, and they triggered a gusher: The U.S. became the world’s top oil producer, surpassing Saudi Arabia. U.S. oil prices fell from about $78 a barrel to $58 from 2010 to 2020, lowering gasoline prices.
One shale producer that initially benefited was Bonanza Creek Energy, which attracted hundreds of millions of dollars from Wall Street investors. Between 2012 and 2019, the company roughly doubled its oil and gas production from about 12,000 barrels a day to nearly 24,000 barrels a day. But the Colorado driller burned through so much cash that it was forced to declare bankruptcy.

The same problems rolled across the industry, as many companies drew on gushers of cash to drill as much as possible with little regard to profitability. Many shale wells turned out to be less productive and more expensive than predicted, and the industry lost $300 billion more in cash than it made between 2010 and 2020, according to accounting firm Deloitte. Those losses soured investors, who began fleeing the sector. That raised oil companies’ borrowing costs and shrunk their budgets.
The result is that shale companies and investors are being cautious now. They aren’t producing enough energy to keep pace with rising demand, even as they now reap large profits from high commodity prices. Most shale-company budgets are still below prepandemic levels, and their spending will only equate to a 3% increase in production next year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

******

I have a subscription to WSJ and this is supposed to be a free link.  If it does not work.  complain to them, not to me.  
It is a long read.  









						America’s New Energy Crisis
					

How did this happen, and what will it take to fix it?




					www.wsj.com


----------



## easyrider (Aug 11, 2022)

Brett said:


> "good" recession,  ---   "bad" recession -    but still not a "monster" recession
> 
> The Nasdaq Composite Is Back in a Bull Market
> The technology-focused index is up 20% from its low in mid-June
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-08-10-2022-11660116855



It is a very bad recession with all markets and most assets having a hard time. I can't see how sugar coating the S&P down 20% , Nasdaq down 30% and DOW down 15% in the first half of the year is realistic. So far this year, most stock portfolios were hit with losses. I read the actual losses to retirement portfolios was over three trillion in the first half of the year. If you add an inflation factor to these loses it could actually be an additional 600 billion of loss. 

Most of this could have been avoided. Governmental interference in global business will be the reason everything tanks, imo.   

Bill


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## Superchief (Aug 11, 2022)

bluehende said:


> I agree that around 3 bucks would be pretty neutral right now.  Oil though is a market and somehow I think interfering with this would be a mistake.  As in any cyclical market enjoy the good times and prepare for the bad.  As a consumer the economy was down and gas prices were low.  Now the other side of that cycle is here.  At some point in the future it will go the other way.  Russian oil will make it back on the market and with projections of record us output next year supply will increase.  My personal opinion is we give enough subsidies.  Below is worldwide.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I guess we were lucky to have low oil prices in 2019 when the economy was very strong prior to Covid. I'm still a supporter of being able to produce our own energy sources so we won't be reliant on other countries, especially our enemies. That is my major concern with EV's. 
I agree that big oil shouldn't be getting large subsidies, but some of the regulations for production need to be eased. A lot of new drilling is being delayed by local protests and the long approval process for drilling permits. I also have concerns with the big subsidies being given to green energy. A lot of companies have received or are waiting to receive large subsidies without producing anything that really works. I remember Solendra a few years ago, and there were others like them. Look at the problems that Rivian and Workhorse have had producing trucks that work. I'm sure both received large subsidies.


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## emeryjre (Aug 11, 2022)

What regulations would you like to see eased.  

Could you find the story that shows that Rivian received subsidies?  I must have missed it.

How about the Tesla subsidy.  That seems to have worked out.


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## emeryjre (Aug 11, 2022)

Personally, I think we should be drilling off the coast of Floridia in the Gulf of Mexico.  Plenty of proven reserves, close to the markets in the gulf.  Good income tax structure for the workers.

Wait, we can't drill of the coast of Florida.  Wonder who did that??









						Trump bans oil drilling off coast of Southern states, likens himself to Teddy Roosevelt
					

President Trump on Tuesday banned oil drilling off the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina — dramatically expanding a more narrow expiring moratorium covering Florida’s Gulf Coast. …




					nypost.com


----------



## Superchief (Aug 11, 2022)

emeryjre said:


> What regulations would you like to see eased.
> 
> Could you find the story that shows that Rivian received subsidies?  I must have missed it.
> 
> How about the Tesla subsidy.  That seems to have worked out.











						White House Blocks Oil Drilling Expansion In Alaska | OilPrice.com
					

The Biden administration has blocked the expansion of oil and gas drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, effectively limiting land available for drilling to half of the reserve’s territory




					oilprice.com
				











						Biden cancels offshore oil lease sales in Gulf Coast, Alaska
					

The Biden administration says it is canceling three oil and gas lease sales scheduled in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Alaska




					abcnews.go.com


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## emeryjre (Aug 11, 2022)

Superchief said:


> White House Blocks Oil Drilling Expansion In Alaska | OilPrice.com
> 
> 
> The Biden administration has blocked the expansion of oil and gas drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, effectively limiting land available for drilling to half of the reserve’s territory
> ...


I agree with you about Alaska.  You do realize that they are restricting the size of the area available for drilling, not the entire area.

I also understand that there are plenty of leases sold but not being used around the country.

What about Rivian susidies??

Any comment on the Tesla subsidy and loan repayment


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## Brett (Aug 11, 2022)

easyrider said:


> It is a very bad recession with all markets and most assets having a hard time. I can't see how sugar coating the S&P down 20% , Nasdaq down 30% and DOW down 15% in the first half of the year is realistic. So far this year, most stock portfolios were hit with losses. I read the actual losses to retirement portfolios was over three trillion in the first half of the year. If you add an inflation factor to these loses it could actually be an additional 600 billion of loss.
> 
> Most of this could have been avoided. Governmental interference in global business will be the reason everything tanks, imo.
> 
> Bill




Bill, --   Nasdaq is now up over 20%   ... but sure. that "monster" recession could still happen.

But *you* enjoyed *your* stimulating no-collateral "government interference" PPP loan, --- enjoy that forgiveness 

https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/s...protection-loan-restaurant-worker-aid.303394/

(maybe you don't need ivermectin  )


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## Superchief (Aug 11, 2022)

emeryjre said:


> I agree with you about Alaska.  You do realize that they are restricting the size of the area available for drilling, not the entire area.
> 
> I also understand that there are plenty of leases sold but not being used around the country.
> 
> ...


Georgia provided Rivian with major subsidies to build a plant there. I couldn't find anything yet about federal subsidies, but we don't yet know what companies will get lots of money from the Inflation Inflammation Act. 








						Georgia sets $1.5B in aid for electric vehicle maker Rivian - ET Auto
					

That would be, by far, the largest incentive package Georgia has ever offered to a company and would be the 15th largest incentive package any America..




					auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com


----------



## Superchief (Aug 11, 2022)

emeryjre said:


> I agree with you about Alaska.  You do realize that they are restricting the size of the area available for drilling, not the entire area.
> 
> I also understand that there are plenty of leases sold but not being used around the country.
> 
> ...


Tesla subsidy has paid off, but many others haven't. Millions went to Solentra with nothing to show for it.  I don't disagree that the government should provide incentives for new technology, but they need to be selective and not just hand out trillions like its monopoly money. There needs to be better reporting of where the money went and how it was used. GM took all of the bailout money but still closed plants and didn't pay it back. There also should not be any subsidies to companies that benefit family members or friends of members of congress. 

Regarding the leases not being used, I can't find any evidence that is the case. However, several interviews I've seen with oil industry analysts indicated that getting drilling permits is the problem. New government requirements have delayed drill permit approval by six months to a year. There are also several permits stuck in litigation by the green police.


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## bluehende (Aug 11, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Tesla subsidy has paid off, but many others haven't. Millions went to Solentra with nothing to show for it.  I don't disagree that the government should provide incentives for new technology, but they need to be selective and not just hand out trillions like its monopoly money. There needs to be better reporting of where the money went and how it was used. GM took all of the bailout money but still closed plants and didn't pay it back. There also should not be any subsidies to companies that benefit family members or friends of members of congress.
> 
> Regarding the leases not being used, I can't find any evidence that is the case. However, several interviews I've seen with oil industry analysts indicated that getting drilling permits is the problem. New government requirements have delayed drill permit approval by six months to a year. There are also several permits stuck in litigation by the green police.


This was in an article YOU posted.

Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said last month that the oil and gas industry is “set” with the amount of drilling permits at its disposal. She defended Biden administration actions to scale down federal leasing, saying that industry has about 9,000 permits that have been approved but are not being used.


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## easyrider (Aug 12, 2022)

Brett said:


> Bill, --   Nasdaq is now up over 20%   ... but sure. that "monster" recession could still happen.
> 
> But *you* enjoyed *your* stimulating no-collateral "government interference" PPP loan, --- enjoy that forgiveness
> 
> ...



I don't get what the PPP has to do with the recession ? If anything, these SBA loans and stimulus spending increased the money supply to the benefit of the markets. You kind of act cavalier about the economy and markets. Can you explain why ? Most people are shitting bricks about their retirement fund losses and you seem to think these losses are not a concern. What is it that you actually know ?

Bill


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## Superchief (Aug 12, 2022)

bluehende said:


> This was in an article YOU posted.
> 
> Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said last month that the oil and gas industry is “set” with the amount of drilling permits at its disposal. She defended Biden administration actions to scale down federal leasing, saying that industry has about 9,000 permits that have been approved but are not being used.


The facts don't support anything she says says. Many of those leases are in areas that aren't worth the expense. She also doesn't mention that the drill permits aren't being approved and issued due to new government requirements.


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## Brett (Aug 12, 2022)

easyrider said:


> I don't get what the PPP has to do with the recession ? If anything, these SBA loans and stimulus spending increased the money supply to the benefit of the markets. You kind of act cavalier about the economy and markets. Can you explain why ? Most people are shitting bricks about their retirement fund losses and you seem to think these losses are not a concern. What is it that you actually know ?
> 
> Bill




LOL

Your own federal government forgiveness loans are "beneficial" to the economy

But other people's government loans are  _ "Government Interference to Business" and "everything tanks"  _!


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## Rolltydr (Aug 12, 2022)

Dow closes up 400 points, S&P 500 rises for fourth straight week — CNBC
					

Stocks rose on Friday, cementing a fourth straight winning week for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.




					stocks.apple.com


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## easyrider (Aug 12, 2022)

Brett said:


> Bill, -- Nasdaq is now up over 20% ... but sure. that "monster" recession could still happen.



I'm not sure you get this even though you should but here is the math. A person had $100,000 in Nasdaq and lost 20% and the earnings for six months. They now have $80,000 and no earnings for six months. They gain 20% in a single month which is $16,000 so they are back to $96,000 with no gains for the year. Using a 20 year average for he Nasdaq the lost gains would have totaled about $750 a month or $4500 in those six months. If you add an inflation factor the loss increases at least 5% or $475 a month for six months or $2850. The total loss is about $11,350 even with a 20% gain at month seven.



Brett said:


> Your own federal government forgiveness loans are "beneficial" to the economy
> 
> But other people's government loans are _ "Government Interference to Business" and "everything tanks" _!



That is what you think, not what I think. Maybe you can explain it a bit. I think loans increase the money supply and has nothing to do with government interference to business on a global scale tanking the world economy. Obstacles to the food and energy supply will increase the dependance on cheap fuel and poor countries will starve is what I think.

Bill


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## Rolltydr (Aug 12, 2022)

easyrider said:


> I'm not sure you get this even though you should but here is the math. A person had $100,000 in Nasdaq and lost 20% and the earnings for six months. They now have $80,000 and no earnings for six months. They gain 20% in a single month which is $16,000 so they are back to $96,000 with no gains for the year. Using a 20 year average for he Nasdaq the lost gains would have totaled about $750 a month or $4500 in those six months. If you add an inflation factor the loss increases at least 5% or $475 a month for six months or $2850. The total loss is about $11,350 even with a 20% gain at month seven.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Those “losses” would be as of today if someone actually sold all of their stock today. If not, they haven’t lost anything, except maybe some sleep. They would have been much worse 4 weeks ago or 4 months ago. It has the potential to be much better 4 weeks from now, four months from now, etc.  In 2008-2009, I “lost” about 20% of my portfolio, on paper. By the time I retired in 2013, I had gained about 40% from my low. In fact, it recovered so well, I was able to retire 3 years before I had planned to. So, those who had to sell, lost from their paper highs from a year or so ago. Those who chose to sell instead of riding it out, lost due to their impatience and/or anxiety. Those who are still in, and can remain in for a while, will recoup their “paper losses” and have substantial gains over the long term. That long-term market trend line doesn’t lie.


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## easyrider (Aug 12, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> Those “losses” would be as of today if someone actually sold all of their stock today. If not, they haven’t lost anything, except maybe some sleep. They would have been much worse 4 weeks ago or 4 months ago. It has the potential to be much better 4 weeks from now, four months from now, etc.  In 2008-2009, I “lost” about 20% of my portfolio, on paper. By the time I retired in 2013, I had gained about 40% from my low. In fact, it recovered so well, I was able to retire 3 years before I had planned to. So, those who had to sell, lost from their paper highs from a year or so ago. Those who chose to sell instead of riding it out, lost due to their impatience and/or anxiety. Those who are still in, and can remain in for a while, will recoup their “paper losses” and have substantial gains over the long term. That long-term market trend line doesn’t lie.



I agree that the long term trends don't lie. A long term gain doesn't erase a short term loss unless you have enough time. At 70 it might be optimistic to think you are still a long term investor, imo.

Bill


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## bluehende (Aug 12, 2022)

easyrider said:


> I agree that the long term trends don't lie. A long term gain doesn't erase a short term gain unless you have enough time. At 70 it might be optimistic to think you are still a long term investor, imo.
> 
> Bill


Maybe not

Life Expectancy Tables

AgeLife Expectancy-MaleLife Expectancy-Female6815.7818.116915.0917.3370*14.40**16.57*7113.7315.82


----------



## easyrider (Aug 12, 2022)

bluehende said:


> Maybe not
> 
> Life Expectancy Tables
> 
> AgeLife Expectancy-MaleLife Expectancy-Female6815.7818.116915.0917.3370*14.40**16.57*7113.7315.82



You made my day Mr Blue. I guess I should hop on the optimist train. 

Bill


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## timsi (Aug 12, 2022)

"Taken together, the numbers are reason for at least a little optimism. But it’s probably wise to put exuberance on hold.

The consumer price index is still up 8.5% from a year ago, while the producer price index has surged 9.8% during the same period."





__





						Loading…
					





					www.cnbc.com


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## Rolltydr (Aug 12, 2022)

A little pessimism and a little optimism, that’s all I ask. It’s the all pessimism that I can’t take. Everything isn’t bad. The economy isn’t in the toilet. The sky is not falling. 
Yes, gas is higher than it was a year ago. It is also cheaper than it was 2 months ago. The CPI is up 8.5% over a year ago. Also, it did not rise last month. The markets are down from their all-time highs of a year or so ago. They are also up for the last 4 weeks. Give the whole story, not just the bad stuff.


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## easyrider (Aug 12, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> A little pessimism and a little optimism, that’s all I ask. It’s the all pessimism that I can’t take. Everything isn’t bad. The economy isn’t in the toilet. The sky is not falling.
> Yes, gas is higher than it was a year ago. It is also cheaper than it was 2 months ago. The CPI is up 8.5% over a year ago. Also, it did not rise last month. The markets are down from their all-time highs of a year or so ago. They are also up for the last 4 weeks. Give the whole story, not just the bad stuff.



I get it. This is one reason I stopped watching the news for the most part. 

Bill


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## gln60 (Aug 12, 2022)

I will add one more observation…posts on the ECONOMY always turn political ..the same as the COVID forum….and it appears that the same posters get political on both topics…imho


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## emeryjre (Aug 12, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Georgia provided Rivian with major subsidies to build a plant there. I couldn't find anything yet about federal subsidies, but we don't yet know what companies will get lots of money from the Inflation Inflammation Act.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Rivian has received no federal money from the program loaning money to Tesla.  The Georgia loan is not something I am familiar with.  I know that Rivian has Amazon and Ford as shareholders.  It's odds of survival are low IMHO.


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## emeryjre (Aug 12, 2022)

Superchief, 

  If you are anxious to see drilling happen, I can put you in touch with a variety of people that have leases, equipment, and employees lined up.  All they need is capital.  

  If you are interested let me know.  I assume you would meet the accredited investor standards. 

  I will warn you, this is not their first time on the beach.  They were part of the drilling operations that lost the 300 billion for investors between 2010 and 2019.


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## Brett (Aug 13, 2022)

gln60 said:


> I will add one more observation…posts on the ECONOMY always turn political ..the same as the COVID forum….and it appears that the same posters get political on both topics…imho




absolutely shocking !


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## Rolltydr (Aug 13, 2022)

Explainer: Why gas prices are falling
					

U.S. consumers are breathing a bit easier now that gasoline prices have come down from record levels, but pump prices are still high, and the two-month slide could be nearing an end. The nationwide average price for a gallon of gas dropped to $3.99  on Thursday, according to AAA.




					apnews.com


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## timsi (Aug 22, 2022)

bluehende said:


> I started working in 1972.  Trust me the average worker has been losing income since then.


Very slowly, not almost 4% per year.


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## Superchief (Aug 22, 2022)

Dow falls 643 points, S&P 500, Nasdaq lose summer rally steam ahead of Jackson Hole conference
					

Fed is expected to outline its economic policy going forward at Jackson Hole symposium later this week. Investors are skittish about the uncertainty



					www.usatoday.com
				




Who knows what will come next.


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## MrockStar (Aug 22, 2022)

Bummer.


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## timsi (Aug 23, 2022)

*"One chart shows exactly why inflation is making everyone so miserable"*










						One chart shows exactly why inflation is making everyone so miserable
					

Average hourly earnings in the US may be higher than a year ago, but the growth rate isn't keeping up with inflation.




					www.businessinsider.com


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## Rolltydr (Aug 23, 2022)

I, for one, am not miserble, so the headline is inaccurate or misleading.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Aug 23, 2022)

Interesting tidbit - this morning the Euro fell below the dollar. Not by much - .9939, but that's something I'd never seen before.


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## bluehende (Aug 23, 2022)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Interesting tidbit - this morning the Euro fell below the dollar. Not by much - .9939, but that's something I'd never seen before.


Does that not mean that the US economy is seen as doing quite well?  Your currency falls on inflation expectations and economic issues.  This looks like a rational development with the latest indication that inflation is falling in the US.  I do not follow EU expectations.


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## PigsDad (Aug 23, 2022)

bluehende said:


> Does that not mean that the US economy is seen as doing quite well?  Your currency falls on inflation expectations and economic issues.  This looks like a rational development with the latest indication that inflation is falling in the US.  I do not follow EU expectations.


Not necessarily that the US economy is doing well (after all, the US is still in a technical recession), but more that EU's inflation rate is higher than our inflation rate, therefore the Euro providing less buying power so USD is rising against it.  Other factors as well, of course, but this is the driving factor at the moment.

Kurt


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Aug 23, 2022)

bluehende said:


> Does that not mean that the US economy is seen as doing quite well?  Your currency falls on inflation expectations and economic issues.  This looks like a rational development with the latest indication that inflation is falling in the US.  I do not follow EU expectations.


I suspect it the old saw - "it's (the USD) the best looking horse in the glue factory. . . "


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## Superchief (Aug 23, 2022)

PigsDad said:


> Not necessarily that the US economy is doing well (after all, the US is still in a technical recession), but more that EU's inflation rate is higher than our inflation rate, therefore the Euro providing less buying power so USD is rising against it.  Other factors as well, of course, but this is the driving factor at the moment.
> 
> Kurt


From what I've been reading, Europe is a great example of moving too quickly away from coal and nuclear power generation prior to green energy sources being ready. I hope the US learns from them.


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## FTEddie (Aug 23, 2022)

Think that losing Natural Gas flows from Russia might be a contributing factor in energy issues


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## DrQ (Sep 20, 2022)

Rolltydr said:


> I, for one, am not miserble, so the headline is inaccurate or misleading.


On August 22nd Wapo:




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					www.washingtonpost.com
				



The Dow Jones industrial average finished the day at *33,063*, down 643 points, or 1.9 percent. The broader S&P 500 shed 2.1 percent to close just shy of *4,138*, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq erased 2.5 percent to end trading at just over *12,381*.
After a down day.

Today's numbers:
Dow: 30,706.23
S&P: 3,855.93
Nasdaq 11,425.05

I think that qualifies as sinking.


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## TravelTime (Sep 20, 2022)

DrQ said:


> On August 22nd Wapo:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I am not worried for people with significant investments who can ride the wave like in the 2008 recession.


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## DrQ (Sep 20, 2022)

TravelTime said:


> I am not worried for people with significant investments who can ride the wave like in the 2008 recession.


Probably correct, but between that and the tightening Fed rate, the cash squeeze will be affecting new homeowners who have bought into a raising market and now may find themselves underwater in a mortgage with sinking values and rising interest rates. Add Credit Card debt and some people will be hurting.








						Most voters say their incomes are falling behind the cost of living
					

Grocery store prices rose 13.5 percent in the year to August - meaning for an unlucky few that the cost of keeping a pantry filled exceeds monthly mortgage repayments.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


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## pedro47 (Sep 20, 2022)

Are all the U.S. dollars & U.S. weapons sent to fight the war in Europe & Asia included in the cost of inflation?


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## Superchief (Sep 20, 2022)

DrQ said:


> On August 22nd Wapo:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The DOW closing avg on 1/20/21 and this was during COVID. I would say we are in a down market and it is getting worse. Feds will likely raise interest rates again.
"The closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) on January 20, 2021 was* $31,186.20*.


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## MrockStar (Sep 20, 2022)

Ouch.


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## geist1223 (Sep 21, 2022)

Because of all the Arms we have shipped to Ukraine the weapon manufacture companies should be working over time to back fill.


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## TravelTime (Sep 21, 2022)

DrQ said:


> Probably correct, but between that and the tightening Fed rate, the cash squeeze will be affecting new homeowners who have bought into a raising market and now may find themselves underwater in a mortgage with sinking values and rising interest rates. Add Credit Card debt and some people will be hurting.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yes I think you are right. If home values sink enough, we may buy a second home for the future since I would like to move out of state eventually. But we would probably want to see a 30% decrease and that seems unlikely. Otherwise, we will wait until when we retire since no reason to sink money now into an over priced home.


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## TravelTime (Sep 21, 2022)

Our investments have fallen but our pure stock is still worth more than 1 year ago. If it holds steady, then I do not worry for ourselves. But others are suffering who have mutual funds, retirement savings/investments they need now, people in the market for new homes or people with no investments as well as low income workers who are seeing no real increase in their salary due to inflation. Gosh, I think that covers almost everyone!


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## Superchief (Sep 21, 2022)

TravelTime said:


> Our investments have fallen but our pure stock is still worth more than 1 year ago. If it holds steady, then I do not worry for ourselves. But others are suffering who have mutual funds, retirement savings/investments they need now, people in the market for new homes or people with no investments as well as low income workers who are seeing no real increase in their salary due to inflation. Gosh, I think that covers almost everyone!


I think retirees are suffering a lot this year. The last few years the COLA for social security has been much lower than the rate of inflation for food, health care,, housing, and energy. The values of most people's retirement account have been lowered substantially, so we all have to reduce our distributions. Our local property taxes have also increased due to levy increases and higher assessments. Our property tax for a median priced home in our area is now $700 per month, higher than anywhere we've lived (and it's not deductible). I may have to go back to work in order to keep my timeshares.


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## TravelTime (Sep 21, 2022)

How the Fed’s Rate Increase Will Hit Americans’ Monthly Budgets
					

The slow burn of rising interest rates raises the cost of car loans, mortgages and credit cards.




					www.wsj.com
				




The Federal Reserve raised rates another 0.75 percentage point Wednesday, as part of its continuing effort to stamp out stubbornly high inflation. Americans are only beginning to feel the full impact of these moves...

..Before the Fed’s move, the average fixed rate on a 30-year mortgage recently rose to 6.02%, from 4.16% the week of March 17, and additional rate increases would likely push mortgage rates even higher...

..Individual dealerships and lenders can charge different amounts for a new loan, but the average APR on a five-year loan steadily increased over the past six months from 3.98% to 5.07%, according to Bankrate...

..The average annual percentage rate on a credit card increased from around 16.17% in early March to more than 18% in September..


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## TravelTime (Sep 21, 2022)

Superchief said:


> I think retirees are suffering a lot this year. The last few years the COLA for social security has been much lower than the rate of inflation for food, health care,, housing, and energy. The values of most people's retirement account have been lowered substantially, so we all have to reduce our distributions. Our local property taxes have also increased due to levy increases and higher assessments. Our property tax for a median priced home in our area is now $700 per month, higher than anywhere we've lived (and it's not deductible). I may have to go back to work in order to keep my timeshares.



We have property taxes on just our primary home of close to $20,000! And we have a lot with a special assessment for roads bringing that to $20K. We have been trying to sell the lot for 8 years. Between state income tax, federal income tax, property taxes and sales tax, it might be 60% of disposable income. So we should just do early retirement and give away the lot. I am ready to give it away.


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## rapmarks (Sep 21, 2022)

I always weathered these market drops, unfortunately with my husband passing, cost basis is adjusted to his date of death on many holdings, and if they go back to what we paid for them, we will owe capital gains tax.


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## DrQ (Sep 21, 2022)

rapmarks said:


> I always weathered these market drops, unfortunately with my husband passing, cost basis is adjusted to his date of death on many holdings, and if they go back to what we paid for them, we will owe capital gains tax.


Ouch! Are you working with a good CPA?


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## TravelTime (Sep 22, 2022)

Great article on the history of how Volcker tamed inflation 40+ years ago.





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					www.nytimes.com
				




The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates again is hardly a positive development for anyone with a job, a business or an investment in the stock or bond market.

But it isn’t a great shock, either.

This is all about curbing inflation, which is running at 8.3 percent annually, near its highest rate in 40 years. On Wednesday, the Fed raised the short-term federal funds rate for a third consecutive time, to 3.25 percent, and said it would keep increasing it.

“We believe a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain later on,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said. He acknowledged that the Fed’s rate increases would raise unemployment and slow the economy.

The outlook is gloomy, but it has been worse before. The last time severe inflation tested the mettle of the Federal Reserve was the era of Paul A. Volcker, who became Fed chair in August 1979, when inflation was already 11 percent and still rising. He managed to bring it below 4 percent by 1983, but at the cost of two recessions, sky-high unemployment and horrendous volatility in financial markets.

How the Fed grappled with inflation then, and struggled for several years to bring it under control, provides clues about what we are facing today.

Briefly put, buckle up. How long the turbulence will last, I can’t say. But note this: In Mr. Volcker’s time, when it seemed that the pain would go on forever, there was a quick and remarkable improvement.

The Volcker era started as a rough time for the economy and ended as a prosperous one. By the time Mr. Volcker stepped down in August 1987, the Fed had vanquished inflation ……

…….The Fed pivot in 1982 had a startling payoff in financial markets.

As early as August 1982, policymakers at the central bank were discussing whether it was time to loosen financial conditions. Word trickled to traders, interest rates fell and the previously lackluster S&P 500 started to rise. It gained nearly 15 percent for the year and kept going. That was the start of a bull market that continued for 40 years.

In 1982, the conditions that set off rampant optimism in the stock market didn’t happen overnight. The Volcker-led Fed had to correct itself repeatedly while responding to major crises at home and abroad. It took years of pain to reach the point at which it made sense to pivot, and for businesses to start rehiring workers and for traders to go all-in on risky assets.

Today, the Fed is again engaging in a grand experiment, even as Russia’s war in Ukraine, the lingering pandemic and political crises in the United States and around the globe are endangering millions of people….

….The best I can say is that it would be wise to prepare for bad times but to plan and invest for prosperity over the long haul.

But I would try to stay invested in both the stock and bond markets permanently. The Volcker era demonstrates that when the moment has at last come, sea changes in financial markets can occur in the blink of an eye.


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## Superchief (Sep 22, 2022)

I think these interest rate increases will be much more devastating than they were then. Inflation has been stable for several years and consumers have run up more debt. A major cause of inflation is the forceful and expensive green energy movement and the restrictions and wasteful spending associated with it. If the government really wants to address inflation, they need to quit spending money wastefully and recognize that moving away from fossil fuels to new technology before its ready is exacerbating an already bad situation.


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## TravelTime (Sep 22, 2022)

Superchief said:


> I think these interest rate increases will be much more devastating than they were then. Inflation has been stable for several years and consumers have run up more debt. A major cause of inflation is the forceful and expensive green energy movement and the restrictions and wasteful spending associated with it. If the government really wants to address inflation, they need to quit spending money wastefully and recognize that moving away from fossil fuels to new technology before its ready is exacerbating an already bad situation.



That is exactly what I think. I was confused when the government labeled their green spending package as an inflation reducing program. It seemed to be more government spending. Does anyone get this?


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## Superchief (Sep 22, 2022)

TravelTime said:


> That is exactly what I think. I was confused when the government labeled their green spending packing as an inflation reducing program. It seemed to be more government spending. Does anyone get this?


I call it the Inflation Inflammation Act. I'm not aware of any economic theory that recommends more spending to reduce inflation.


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## DrQ (Sep 25, 2022)

The Great Bond Bubble Is ‘Poof, Gone’ in Worst Year Since 1949
					

(Bloomberg) -- Week by week, the bond-market crash just keeps getting worse and there’s no clear end in sight.Most Read from BloombergBank of England Says Paper Banknotes Only Good for One More WeekThe Great Bond Bubble Is ‘Poof, Gone’ in Worst Year Since 1949‘Read Putin More Often and...




					finance.yahoo.com


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## DrQ (Sep 25, 2022)

*The beatings will continue until morale improves:*




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					www.usnews.com


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## DrQ (Sep 26, 2022)

*How margin calls came to threaten Europe's energy firms*








						Explainer: How margin calls came to threaten Europe's energy firms
					

Soaring power and gas prices have rocked energy companies across Europe, forcing utilities and traders to secure extra funds from governments and banks to cover margin call requirements.




					www.reuters.com
				




With energy trades (speculators) so out of balance, this could be the European version of the 2008 housing collapse we saw here. The margin calls are going  to further dry up capital.


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## DrQ (Sep 26, 2022)

*Asian shares mixed after Dow falls into bear market*








						Asian shares mixed after Dow falls into bear market
					

Stocks were mixed in Asia on Tuesday after closing broadly lower on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell into what’s known as a bear market.  Tokyo, Sydney and Shanghai advanced while Hong Kong and Seoul declined.




					apnews.com


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## MrockStar (Sep 30, 2022)

Its official we now really are in a recession. Bummer.


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## gln60 (Sep 30, 2022)

MrockStar said:


> Its official we now really are in a recession. Bummer.


I mean really folks…….is ANYONE SURPRISED??


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## MrockStar (Sep 30, 2022)

NOPE. We need a major balanced budget amendment.


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## gln60 (Sep 30, 2022)

100% correct….but it will never ever happen..especially in the near future.


MrockStar said:


> NOPE. We need a major balanced budget amendment.


.


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## DrQ (Oct 4, 2022)

*Ocean freight orders are signaling a big drop in consumer demand*

U.S. shippers are seeing a 20% drop in ocean freight orders.
The declines include machinery, household products, industrial products and some apparel.
Ocean carriers are canceling as much as 50% of sailings to rebalance vessel capacity to demand.
Freight prices on one key route from Asia to the West Coast are now down more than 80% from last year.





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					www.cnbc.com


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## MrockStar (Oct 4, 2022)

I guess  its really here now, unfortunately:-(


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## PigsDad (Oct 4, 2022)

MrockStar said:


> I guess  its really here now, unfortunately:-(


It has been for a few months now.  Some just had their heads in the sand wishing it wasn't here.

Kurt


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Oct 4, 2022)

This is a very bullish bear market. I spent a lot of time watching talking heads in Hawaii (I was sick and nothing better to do), and basically all I heard was , "it may go down in the next few months, but if you buy now, you will make a lot of money over then next 3-5 years. That's not what you heard at the bottom in 2002 and 2009. OTOH, this is a bullish period in the seasonalities. So I expect (and my opinion is worth exactly what you paid for it), a short term rally, like this past summer, followed by another leg down.

Bad news is good news right now, with the pro's hoping for an interest rate drop.


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## Superchief (Oct 4, 2022)

Gas is back up to $4 in Cincinnati, up .60 in past five days. This will fuel inflation causing another rate increase resulting in deeper recession. This doesn't need to happen if the correct policies are implemented.


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## dago (Oct 4, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Gas is back up to $4 in Cincinnati, up .60 in past five days. This will fuel inflation causing another rate increase resulting in deeper recession. This doesn't need to happen if the correct policies are implemented.


Time to buy an EV. But make sure you pay cash. You don't want any debt.  LOL.


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## SmithOp (Oct 4, 2022)

I'd gladly pay $4 a gal. it's up to $6 in CA.

Sent from my Lenovo 10e using Tapatalk


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## MrockStar (Oct 4, 2022)

dago said:


> Time to buy an EV. But make sure you pay cash. You don't want any debt.  LOL.


No thanks, my car has been paid for for six years. Gas is way cheaper than new EV car payments.


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## dago (Oct 4, 2022)

MrockStar said:


> No thanks, my car has been paid for for six years. Gas is way cheaper than new EV car payments.


Should I have added the word "sarcasm" to my post?


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## MrockStar (Oct 4, 2022)

dago said:


> Should I have added the word "sarcasm" to my post?


Yes, or the wink  emogee.


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## DrQ (Oct 4, 2022)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Bad news is good news right now, with the pro's hoping for an interest rate drop.


Suffering on Main Street is good news on Wall Street


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## MrockStar (Oct 4, 2022)

DrQ said:


> Suffering on Main Street is good news on Wall Street


We dont live on wall street.  :-\


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## VacationForever (Oct 4, 2022)

If I must digress... Remember Occupy Wall Street?  A movement which really had no impact on Wall Street.


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## emeryjre (Oct 4, 2022)

We will see fluctuations in interest rates.   At this point in time, we would like to see a slowdown in the rate of increase in interest rates as set by the Federal Reserve Board.  If the next meeting of the FRB results in a 1/2 percentage rate increase, that would mean the FRB feels that inflation is declining.  Reducing inflation is the current goal of the Federal Reserve Board.  The FRB is not likely to decrease rates soon.


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## emeryjre (Oct 4, 2022)

double post by accident


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## dago (Oct 4, 2022)

MrockStar said:


> Yes, or the wink  emogee.


OKAY - I thought the LOL was enough


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## dago (Oct 4, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Gas is back up to $4 in Cincinnati, up .60 in past five days. This will fuel inflation causing another rate increase resulting in deeper recession. This doesn't need to happen if the correct policies are implemented.


$4 in the Cleveland area also


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## MrockStar (Oct 4, 2022)

MI, 4.19$


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## Brett (Oct 5, 2022)

VacationForever said:


> If I must digress... Remember Occupy Wall Street?  A movement which really had no impact on Wall Street.




I remember  the "street" flattened those protesters


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## SmithOp (Oct 5, 2022)

Brett said:


> I remember the "street" flattened those protesters
> 
> View attachment 66145


Last night was a slow night for TV so I watched the FBI shows, there are three in a row now. On the FBI International show was an occupy group in Spain called Eat The Rich. The best scene was at the end when the leader of the group tried to hit on the FBI agent, she told him "not interested, you are only in it for clicks on your social media and to hit on impressionable young women" Boom, shot down in flames, great writing.

They've come a long way from the old Efrem Zimbalist Jr shows of my youth.

Sent from my Lenovo 10e using Tapatalk


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## TravelTime (Oct 5, 2022)

Superchief said:


> Gas is back up to $4 in Cincinnati, up .60 in past five days. This will fuel inflation causing another rate increase resulting in deeper recession. This doesn't need to happen if the correct policies are implemented.



Gas where we live in CA is approaching $7. The government actions were short term. Things are sinking again. The stock market is much worse.

I read an article in WSJ that said companies are cutting back on hiring and more people are going back to work. Let’s see where unemployment goes in the next few years.

Employment cutbacks, sinking stock market, high interest rates, high inflation…not looking good.


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## Superchief (Oct 5, 2022)

OPEC is cutting daily production by 2 million barrels today. Expect things to get a lot worse until more federal lands are opened up for drilling and the permits are expedited. Our oil reserves are now at 40 year lows, and may be needed if Russia carries through on its threats.


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## MrockStar (Oct 5, 2022)

Ouch, I was hoping for some good news  today.


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## Superchief (Oct 5, 2022)

MrockStar said:


> Ouch, I was hoping for some good news  today.


Now that Russia is part of OPEC, we better make every effort to increase domestic production and start removing the barriers that are currently in place.


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## DrQ (Oct 6, 2022)

*The Fed's reverse repo use just hit a fresh record of $2.4 trillion — why that's one of the clearest 'bad signs' for the market*
The volatile market has investors playing it safe.




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					moneywise.com


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## DrQ (Oct 6, 2022)

Breakingviews - The end of cheap money reveals global debt problem
					

The global financial crisis of 2008 was supposed to have taught the world the dangers of excessive debt. But borrowing has shot up since then. The debt of governments, companies and households was 195% of global GDP in 2007, according to the International Monetary Fund. By the end of 2020 it had...




					www.reuters.com


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## DrQ (Oct 6, 2022)

*Wall Street drops as the Fed pounds rate hike drum*
(Reuters) -Wall Street's major indexes slid further on Thursday as concerns mounted ahead of closely watched monthly nonfarm payrolls numbers that the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate stance will lead to a recession.

Before dropping further, markets briefly took comfort from data that showed an increase in weekly jobless claims as it raised hopes the Fed could ease the steady rate hikes it has been implementing since March - the fastest and highest in decades.

The equity market has been slow to acknowledge a consistent message from Fed officials that rates will go higher for longer until the pace of inflation is clearly slowing.




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					www.fidelity.com


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## rapmarks (Oct 7, 2022)

VacationForever said:


> Smells, looks and reads like a very politically bias post.


When I read the posts on next door I swear that some people would ask a first responder their party affiliation, and turn them away if not the party of choice


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## VacationForever (Oct 7, 2022)

rapmarks said:


> When I read the posts on next door I swear that some people would ask a first responder their party affiliation, and turn them away if not the party of choice


Yep, a few things to never get into discussion - religion and politics.


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