# Nice modification to the last minute rental board



## BocaBum99 (Aug 5, 2006)

I like what TUG has done with the Rentals offered vs. Rentals wanted.  Thanks for doing that.


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## boyblue (Aug 5, 2006)

BocaBum99 said:
			
		

> I like what TUG has done with the Rentals offered vs. Rentals wanted.  Thanks for doing that.



Makes a lot of sense.  Why didn't I think of that?  Wonder who suggested the change.


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## RonaldCol (Aug 5, 2006)

*Change in Vacation Patterns*

I noticed over the last two years there were increasing numbers of "want to rent ads" placed in the rental section. It was getting awfully difficult to cull out the "for rent" from the "want to rent" postings.

Methinks the general population's vacation patterns are shifting: more demand for units of timeshares.

It wouldnt surprise me at all to see a general price improvement in the resale pricing of timeshares. Of course, I have been on record as mentioning a general price increase for the last two years.


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## Kola (Aug 5, 2006)

RonaldCol said:
			
		

> Methinks the general population's vacation patterns are shifting: more demand for units of timeshares.
> 
> It wouldnt surprise me at all to see a general price improvement in the resale pricing of timeshares. Of course, I have been on record as mentioning a general price increase for the last two years.



Given that there is no reliable statistics on timeshare units sold or rented,  I wonder how did you get to conclude that there is more demand for timeshare units ? While one could identify a price trend in new units sold by developers in some, but not all, areas, IMHO it is simply impossible to know actual resale prices. I mean actual resale prices, not fictional asking prices you see on many boards. On top of that, the quality of units and amenities offered is simply not comparable. So how does one identify a demand pattern for a given timeshare unit given all the variables ?   

Kola


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## timeos2 (Aug 5, 2006)

There was an old email suggesting the change recently discovered. With the ability to create sub-forums it seemed like a logical split to make. Thanks to Doug for the follow up.


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## RonaldCol (Aug 6, 2006)

*Kola, It Looks Like I'm Going to Have to Kill You After You Read This ....*



			
				Kola said:
			
		

> Given that there is no reliable statistics on timeshare units sold or rented,  I wonder how did you get to conclude that there is more demand for timeshare units ? While one could identify a price trend in new units sold by developers in some, but not all, areas, IMHO it is simply impossible to know actual resale prices. I mean actual resale prices, not fictional asking prices you see on many boards. On top of that, the quality of units and amenities offered is simply not comparable. So how does one identify a demand pattern for a given timeshare unit given all the variables ?
> 
> Kola



I've analyzed markets using three different type of trends: long-term, intermediate, and short-term trends. I applied the same timeframes to timeshares in my analysis.

These are some of the long-term trends affecting vacationing patterns: an aging populace with discretionary income (baby-boomers are coming of age). Wherever the baby-boomers have affected the economy is where you will find demand and resulant growth, be it in demand for vacation homes or timeshare sales. (We've seen large increases in IRA accounts because baby boomers are skewed towards retirement. Greater demand for retirement income translates into more retirement planning business.) It's a growth market for vacationing opportunities.

The intermediate-trends affect vacationing patterns: weather changes and  political turmoil affect intermediate trends. There is a decided shift away from Florida for vacationing since we are now entering a period of more hurricanes in that part of the country. New Orleans will never be the same prior to Katrina. Vacationing overseas is losing it's appeal to American travellers: who wants to be possibly held hostage while riding a local bus in Beirut and having only an American passport to identify who you are? A lot of expensive vacation budgets that had been allotted to a European vacation or a vacation in Bali (an island either battered by sunamis or by radical Islamists), for example, will be spent within the borders of the United States. A $20,000 budget for vacationing in Europe goes a long, long way in the United States. In fact that $20,000 pays for a few more additional vacations in the United States. Additionally, the weak US dollar makes the US a Filene's basement of vacation travel. We got back from Vancouver last week. About 70% of the travellers in Vancouver were from Europe, and the others were from the US. You can always tell the US traveller: constantly complaining of how much it was costing them to stay there! In fact Canadian government statistics showed the US actually had a positive balance in moneys spent by travellers from Canada.

For the short-term trend, you can see what the timeshare developers are trying to do to vacationers. They're letting out the inventory of timeshare weeks to non-timeshare owners. Bad in the short-term for timeshare owners since it makes exchange inventory less, but it should push up prices both of rentals and value of exchanges. This action will also create a potential group of timeshare buyers. Think of how many of us Tuggers are recent converts to timeshares. Me? In year 2000 I owned none. In year 2006 I have more weeks to use than there are weeks in a year. Multiply that by more and more multiple timeshare owners and you will see there is demand for timeshares. Then there are those who are buying for the first time in the resale market. 

All three trends point in the direction of positive price improvements for timeshare sales. Of course, the demand will not increase significantly, although it will also increase, for one's blue week at one's favorite camp ground adjoining the Chernobyl power plant in former Russia. Garbage is garbage no matter how one disguises it. A blue week in the dead of winter won't do anything for any owner.

Now, that you've figured out how I came to my analysis, you better watch out! I'm watching you.


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## TUGBrian (Aug 6, 2006)

and all you TUG members should have something even more fun to play with here on the BBS tomorrow if things work out!


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## irish (Aug 6, 2006)

super idea. now i can get right to the actual rentals without being bogged down by the "wanteds".


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## funtime (Aug 10, 2006)

*Great for the timeshare wanted folks*

 Super idea -- I predict we will see a lot more wanted postings now that they have been separated out and a lot of happy tuggers who help each other out.  For the most part timeshare wanted is like a fantasy trip - great if it happens but usually not mandated.  Awesome! and Thanks!!


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