# New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly



## TravelTime (Aug 24, 2020)

New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly
					

Blanket business shutdowns—which the U.S. never tried before this pandemic—led to a deep recession. Economists and health experts say there may be a better way.




					www.wsj.com
				




*New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly*
Blanket business shutdowns—which the U.S. never tried before this pandemic—led to a deep recession. Economists and health experts say there may be a better way.

In response to the novel and deadly coronavirus, many governments deployed draconian tactics never used in modern times: severe and broad restrictions on daily activity that helped send the world into its deepest peacetime slump since the Great Depression.

The equivalent of 400 million jobs have been lost world-wide, 13 million in the U.S. alone. Global output is on track to fall 5% this year, far worse than during the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Despite this steep price, few policy makers felt they had a choice, seeing the economic crisis as a side effect of the health crisis. They ordered nonessential businesses closed and told people to stay home, all without the extensive analysis of benefits and risks that usually precedes a new medical treatment.

There wasn’t time to gather that sort of evidence: Faced with a poorly understood and rapidly spreading pathogen, they prioritized saving lives.

Five months later, the evidence suggests lockdowns were an overly blunt and economically costly tool. They are politically difficult to keep in place for long enough to stamp out the virus. The evidence also points to alternative strategies that could slow the spread of the epidemic at much less cost. As cases flare up throughout the U.S., some experts are urging policy makers to pursue these more targeted restrictions and interventions rather than another crippling round of lockdowns.

“We’re on the cusp of an economic catastrophe,” said James Stock, a Harvard University economist who, with Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina and others, is modeling how to avoid a surge in deaths without a deeply damaging lockdown. “We can avoid the worst of that catastrophe by being disciplined,” Mr. Stock said......

........Dr. Mina of Harvard said the U.S. at the outset could have chosen to prioritize the economy, as Sweden did, and accept the deaths, or it could have chosen to fully prioritize health by staying locked down until new infections were so low that testing and tracing could control new outbreaks, as some northeastern states such as Rhode Island did.

Most of the U.S. did neither. The result was “a complete disaster. We’re harming the economy, waffling back and forth between what is right, what is wrong with a slow drift of companies closing their doors for good,” Dr. Mina said.

The experience of the past five months suggests the need for an alternative: Rather than lockdowns, using only those measures proven to maximize lives saved while minimizing economic and social disruption. “Emphasize the reopening of the highest economic benefit, lowest risk endeavors,” said Dr. Mina.

Social distancing policies, for instance, can take into account widely varying risks by age. The virus is especially deadly for the elderly. Nursing homes account for 0.6% of the population but 45% of Covid fatalities, says the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, a conservative-leaning think tank. Better isolating those residents would have saved many lives at little economic cost, it says.

By contrast, fewer children have died this year from Covid-19 than from flu. And studies in Sweden, where most schools stayed open, and the Netherlands, where they reopened in May, found teachers at no greater risk than the overall population. This suggests reopening schools outside of hot spots, with protective measures, shouldn’t worsen the epidemic, while alleviating the toll on working parents and on children.

If schools don’t reopen until next January, McKinsey & Co. estimates, low-income children will have lost a year of education, which it says translates into 4% lower lifetime earnings.

.....*Dr. Mina’s and Mr. Stock’s team has designed a “smart” reopening plan based on contact frequency and vulnerability of five demographic groups and 66 economic sectors. It assumes most businesses reopen using industry guidelines on physical distancing, hygiene and working from home; schools reopen; masks are required; and churches, indoor sports venues and bars stay closed.*

They estimated in June that this would result in 335,000 fewer U.S. deaths by the end of this year than if all restrictions were immediately lifted. But they say the plan also would leave economic output 10% higher than if a second round of lockdowns were imposed.

“If you use all these measures, it leaves lots of room for the economy to reopen with a very small number of deaths,” Mr. Stock said. “Economic shutdowns are a blunt and very costly tool.”......


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## Conan (Aug 24, 2020)

They're with the Brookings Institute
*Updated August 4, 2020*
Brookings continues to closely monitor the increase in COVID-19 cases and other institutional responses to the virus. Accordingly, Brookings staff will continue *mandatory telework* through at least January 4, 2021. Brookings leadership will continue to monitor the situation and regularly evaluate the need for continued telework beyond that date.








						Coronavirus (COVID-19) Guidance
					

Updated August 4, 2020 Brookings continues to closely monitor the increase in COVID-19 cases and other institutional responses to the virus. Accordingly, Brookings staff will continue mandatory tel…




					www.brookings.edu


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## DannyTS (Aug 24, 2020)

since they mention Sweden in the article

*Sweden Has Developed Herd Immunity After Refusing to Lock Down, Experts Claim*








						Sweden Has Developed Herd Immunity, Experts Claim. Others Point to its High Fatality Rate.
					

Sweden has seen 5,810 deaths from Covid-19, which is much more than its neighbors so the approach has come with a cost.




					www.barrons.com


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## TravelTime (Aug 24, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> since they mention Sweden in the article
> 
> *Sweden Has Developed Herd Immunity After Refusing to Lock Down, Experts Claim*
> 
> ...



Be careful. You could get this thread closed by mentioning Sweden.


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## Cornell (Aug 24, 2020)

@TravelTime @DannyTS 

Let's just refer to "that country" as Sverige  so no one knows what we are REALLY talking about.


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## DannyTS (Aug 24, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Be careful. You could get this thread closed by mentioning Sweden.





Cornell said:


> @TravelTime @DannyTS
> 
> Let's just refer to "that country" as Sverige  so no one knows what we are REALLY talking about.



LOL


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## Monykalyn (Aug 24, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> all without the extensive analysis of benefits and risks that usually precedes a new medical treatment


 I get there wasn't time time to fully evaluate but the media has refused to allow ANY dissenting voices until very recently. 


TravelTime said:


> They are politically difficult to keep in place for long enough to stamp out the virus.


 and they don't work. Long enough to "work" could mean years.  


TravelTime said:


> Better isolating those residents would have saved many lives at little economic cost, it says.


 Anecdotally-Covid is going through my nursing homes now-after all the lockdowns, masking mandates have been in place way prior to coming into the nursing homes, homes still under strict visitor guidelines etc.  I just don't think you can "hide" from the virus. The surrounding communities have mask mandates as well, and low community spread with the specific areas with low %positivity rate as well 

@DannyTS --I find the comparisons interesting. No one wants to talk about how once virus hits a saturation point the curve drops no matter the mitigations in place...just that some mitigations result in asymptomatic cases and therefore much lower deaths.


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## DannyTS (Aug 24, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @TravelTime @DannyTS
> 
> Let's just refer to "that country" as Sverige  so no one knows what we are REALLY talking about.


What if I call it "the first country that reached herd immunity"? That is probably worse I imagine.


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## bluehende (Aug 24, 2020)

from the study discussed

businesses remain open under CDC guidelines but strict precautions outside work are reimposed, 

That would go over well.


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## Cornell (Aug 24, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly
> 
> 
> Blanket business shutdowns—which the U.S. never tried before this pandemic—led to a deep recession. Economists and health experts say there may be a better way.
> ...


My edit to the headline:

This thinking isn't NEW. 

*New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly*


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## Big Matt (Aug 24, 2020)

My take on this is fairly simple.  We've learned a lot across the globe from this mess.  I just hope we understand that more precise risk mitigation techniques are required, at least in the United States.  Right now it appears that entities such as school systems, colleges, etc. are more concerned with having outbreaks and the negative media consequences than working towards some type of model that works for them.  Blunt instruments versus practical solutions.  I look at pro sports as good examples.  Looks like the bubble model works and the one used by Baseball is evolving.  Why not take some chances with the bubble model on college campuses?  Maybe too hard with public grammar schools, but if kids don't have it and the parents don't have it, then maybe avoid a family vacation, and things like birthday parties and Halloween.  Simple compromises.


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## TravelTime (Aug 24, 2020)

Cornell said:


> My edit to the headline:
> 
> This thinking isn't NEW.
> 
> *New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly*



I agree it is not new as some of us having been saying this since Covid started. But we were contrarians back in the day. LOL


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## TravelTime (Aug 24, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> My take on this is fairly simple.  We've learned a lot across the globe from this mess.  I just hope we understand that more precise risk mitigation techniques are required, at least in the United States.  Right now it appears that entities such as school systems, colleges, etc. are more concerned with having outbreaks and the negative media consequences than working towards some type of model that works for them.  Blunt instruments versus practical solutions.  I look at pro sports as good examples.  Looks like the bubble model works and the one used by Baseball is evolving.  Why not take some chances with the bubble model on college campuses?  Maybe too hard with public grammar schools, but if kids don't have it and the parents don't have it, then maybe avoid a family vacation, and things like birthday parties and Halloween.  Simple compromises.



This is what I was thinking about for schools. If the families all agree to limit their activities and travels, then school should be fairly low risk.


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## Chrisky (Aug 24, 2020)

“ Maybe too hard with public grammar schools, but if kids don't have it and the parents don't have it, then maybe avoid a family vacation, and things like birthday parties and Halloween”
That seems all very fine and dandy. But how do you know the kids don’t have it, and the parents don’t have it?  
In a perfect world everyone would do everything possible to avoid getting infected and to be mindful of their friends, family and whomever they come in contact with. 
But we can all read about the people who simply do not care about anyone else but themselves. 
They are bored and just want to have parties, get together with masses of friends. I know I am just generalizing here, but what is more important, opening up businesses, or the lives of hundreds of thousands of people?  It is not just the people dying but many survivors are left with life long health complications, do they not matter?  
Too many people just cannot seem to understand how serious this is. Too many people do not understand what hardship really is. So we all have to be very careful for awhile yet, yes it is hard, yes we miss our large gatherings. I am sorry, but my comment is “suck it up”, stop whining and think of what is good for everyone. 
Sorry about the rant, but I am truly fed up with a lot of people, not just in the US but in my country as well.


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## VegasBella (Aug 24, 2020)

"Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate. This is the dilemma we face, but it should not stop us from doing what we can to prepare. We need to reach out to everyone with words that inform, but not inflame. We need to encourage everyone to prepare, but not panic." — Michael O. Leavitt, 2007


People still refuse to wear masks. 

And there aren’t enough tests (and certainly not enough rapid tests) to do bubbles for universities. 

Lockdowns are hard and blunt, yes. But since we didn’t prepare appropriately lockdowns were the only sure methods to prevent uncontrolled spread. Most places eased up lockdowns ASAP and then re-instituted them if cases/hospitalizations/deaths spiked. 

How didn’t we prepare? Here’s how: hospitals didn’t get enough masks or tests, governments didn’t get enough masks or tests, they waited forever to beef up contact tracing teams and tools, etc etc). 

Sweden killed a lot of people. And there’s no reason to think ‘it’s over’ or ‘they achieved herd immunity.’ That’s fiction. We won’t know the real scope of the damage for many months. Sweden is simply declaring victory without evidence of true victory. Case rates can rise and fall for various reasons, a trend downward doesn’t preclude a future trend upward. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Aug 24, 2020)

Chrisky said:


> “ Maybe too hard with public grammar schools, but if kids don't have it and the parents don't have it, then maybe avoid a family vacation, and things like birthday parties and Halloween”
> That seems all very fine and dandy. But how do you know the kids don’t have it, and the parents don’t have it?
> In a perfect world everyone would do everything possible to avoid getting infected and to be mindful of their friends, family and whomever they come in contact with.
> But we can all read about the people who simply do not care about anyone else but themselves.
> ...


What if they have it, they stay home for few days, and they come back when they are feeling better? As long as you protect the most vulnerable, one should not afraid of it.


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## TravelTime (Aug 24, 2020)

Chrisky said:


> “ Maybe too hard with public grammar schools, but if kids don't have it and the parents don't have it, then maybe avoid a family vacation, and things like birthday parties and Halloween”
> That seems all very fine and dandy. But how do you know the kids don’t have it, and the parents don’t have it?
> In a perfect world everyone would do everything possible to avoid getting infected and to be mindful of their friends, family and whomever they come in contact with.
> But we can all read about the people who simply do not care about anyone else but themselves.
> ...



What do you think of that UI girl who got Covid and took a bus knowing she had Covid?

A lot of Tuggers are traveling now. What do you think of that?


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## Chrisky (Aug 24, 2020)

“What if they have it, they stay home for few days, and they come back when they are feeling better? 
As long as you protect the most vulnerable, one should not afraid of it.”
If you have it, and you test positive, you do not stay home for a few days, you stay home for 14 days, and you are retested, and if you are negative, then you can go out, of course always wearing your mask! 


« What do you think of that UI girl who got Covid and took a bus knowing she had Covid?
A lot of Tuggers are traveling now. What do you think of that?« 

I apologize, I do not know what UI is, but if she took a bus  knowing she had covid, if she  is tested and still tests positive, she should be fined. There is no excuse for pretending ignorance. 

Travelling?  Depends on where they are travelling, how many people are travelling, where are they travelling to and what are the restrictions where they will be vacationing.


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## TravelTime (Aug 24, 2020)

Chrisky said:


> “ Maybe too hard with public grammar schools, but if kids don't have it and the parents don't have it, then maybe avoid a family vacation, and things like birthday parties and Halloween”
> That seems all very fine and dandy. But how do you know the kids don’t have it, and the parents don’t have it?
> In a perfect world everyone would do everything possible to avoid getting infected and to be mindful of their friends, family and whomever they come in contact with.
> But we can all read about the people who simply do not care about anyone else but themselves.
> ...



What do you think about the schools that are re-opening with a Covid plan and safety precautions in place?


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## Big Matt (Aug 24, 2020)

Chrisky said:


> “ Maybe too hard with public grammar schools, but if kids don't have it and the parents don't have it, then maybe avoid a family vacation, and things like birthday parties and Halloween”
> That seems all very fine and dandy. But how do you know the kids don’t have it, and the parents don’t have it?


Testing?


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## am1 (Aug 24, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> What do you think of that UI girl who got Covid and took a bus knowing she had Covid?
> 
> A lot of Tuggers are traveling now. What do you think of that?


Jail and fines.  Very simple.  Cut and dry.


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## geekette (Aug 24, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> Testing?


I can't get "any reason or no reason" testing.   I would expect few areas do.  It doesn't sound to me like schools are doing testing, but requesting kids get tested.


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## isisdave (Aug 24, 2020)

Six months now, and everything depends on quick, intensive, and available testing, which somehow we still do not have.
Beyond that, effective contact tracing.
And someone in charge of it all.


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## Cornell (Aug 24, 2020)

CDC no longer recommends asymptomatic testing













						Healthcare Workers
					

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.




					www.cdc.gov


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## DannyTS (Aug 24, 2020)

*Save Yourself: Stop Believing in Lockdown*










						Save Yourself: Stop Believing in Lockdown
					

"As Voltaire wrote during the Enlightenment — when society still had time away from the screen to reflect on philosophy, morality, and fundamental truth — 'those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.'" ~ Stacey Rudin




					www.aier.org


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## Monykalyn (Aug 24, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> What do you think of that UI girl who got Covid and took a bus knowing she had Covid?
> 
> A lot of Tuggers are traveling now. What do you think of that?











						'I just can't do this': UI student who tested positive for COVID-19 recounts school response
					

Annie Gaughan's account went viral on social media this week. It began as a long thread posted to Instagram but migrated across platforms.



					www.press-citizen.com
				




This story? My gosh what that poor kid went through! NO WAY do I blame her as it seemed to be a very last resort. 
And NO jail time, fines etc are NOT WHAT YOU DO!!  Sorry not sorry-do NOT want to live in a police/state/country!!! Nothing is 100% black and white


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## am1 (Aug 24, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> 'I just can't do this': UI student who tested positive for COVID-19 recounts school response
> 
> 
> Annie Gaughan's account went viral on social media this week. It began as a long thread posted to Instagram but migrated across platforms.
> ...



And the people on the bus for 3.5 hours?  There is a reason why it keeps spreading.  Her issue seems to be with her university.  No need to keep spreading it. Hopefully she recovers, no one gets infected from her poor choices and gets to a university that is willing to do more.


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## Passepartout (Aug 24, 2020)

Look. These comments simply make my eyes glaze over. This disease is out there. There is no cure. There is no vaccine. We know how to protect others, but not how to protect ourselves. Not completely. So DO WHAT YOU KNOW WILL PROTECT OTHERS! To do otherwise is simply irresponsible. Questions?

Jim


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## DannyTS (Aug 24, 2020)

VegasBella said:


> "Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate. This is the dilemma we face, but it should not stop us from doing what we can to prepare. We need to reach out to everyone with words that inform, but not inflame. We need to encourage everyone to prepare, but not panic." — Michael O. Leavitt, 2007
> 
> 
> People still refuse to wear masks.
> ...


no, Sweden did not killed a lot of people. They registered the peak of deaths on April 9th, 3 weeks after many countries started a lockdown. Those deaths would have not been avoided by a lockdown, CDC states that there is a 4 week lag between contact and  a reported death (and in many cases a lot longer). Sweden has a lower rate of deaths per capita than a lot of states.


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## CPNY (Aug 24, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Look. These comments simply make my eyes glaze over. This disease is out there. There is no cure. There is no vaccine. We know how to protect others, but not how to protect ourselves. Not completely. So DO WHAT YOU KNOW WILL PROTECT OTHERS! To do otherwise is simply irresponsible. Questions?
> 
> Jim


It’s interesting that SARS Cov 2 was found in the dead bodies of Chinese miners that came across bats in a cave back in 2012. It’s been around much longer that previously thought. I agree though, we need to take precautions, but we can do so while opening and staying open.


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## cman (Aug 24, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Sweden has a lower rate of deaths per capita than a lot of states.


Fact: Sweden has more deaths per capita than most countries on the planet. Now, if you want to look at countries that avoided lock downs and contained the virus, you need to look to Asia. South Korea would be a good place to start.


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## cman (Aug 24, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> What if I call it "the first country that reached herd immunity"? That is probably worse I imagine.


Disinformation Alert: Sweden has not reached heard immunity. They're not anywhere close.


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## bluehende (Aug 25, 2020)

CPNY said:


> It’s interesting that SARS Cov 2 was found in the dead bodies of Chinese miners that came across bats in a cave back in 2012. It’s been around much longer that previously thought. I agree though, we need to take precautions, but we can do so while opening and staying open.


It would be if true.  The article you posted claimed that because the miners died of flu like symptoms it was Cov 2.  By that logic the 1918 pandemic was caused by it too.  It was hogwash.


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## jabberwocky (Aug 25, 2020)

cman said:


> Fact: Sweden has more deaths per capita than most countries on the planet. Now, if you want to look at countries that avoided lock downs and contained the virus, you need to look to Asia. South Korea would be a good place to start.


South Korea is facing a new surge. They just closed down schools in Seoul today. From the Financial Times:



> Schools and kindergartens in Seoul have been forced to close and move their classes online as the South Korean government ratchets up measures in response to a worsening resurgence in coronavirus transmission across the country.
> 
> The move is the latest in a series of actions in the past week to reinstate social distancing measures across the country, including restricting travel in and out of the capital and mandating people wear masks while in public in the city.
> 
> The Korea Centers for Disease Control on Tuesday reported 280 new confirmed Covid-19 infections, marking nearly 3,200 new cases reported over the past 12 days in what is the country’s worst coronavirus emergency in six months.


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## cman (Aug 25, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> South Korea is facing a new surge. They just closed down schools in Seoul today. From the Financial Times:


But they're doing a lot better than Sweden (6/miillion deaths vs Sweden's 575/million). So is Laos, Taiwan and Vietnam. They are experiencing a surge in cases, but the difference between them and us, is that they have effective procedures in place to deal with such a surge.


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## "Roger" (Aug 25, 2020)

As my eyes glaze over, trying to offer at least a fresh perspective (inspired but certainly not authorized by Danny).

Given the choice, where would you liked to have or would like to live in the future? Your choices are

a. Canada (which went through not a perfect, but a lock down better respected than what we have seen in the US).
b. Florida (where the goal was complete openness, admittedly somewhat spoiled by some local governments which imposed lock downs not authorized by the state).
c. Canada in the past, but then move to Florida sometime in the future.

Assume whatever you want about collective immunity. (That it exists and is fairly easily obtainable, that no state or nation is anywhere near achieving it, that we just don't know about it yet.)


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## DannyTS (Aug 25, 2020)

cman said:


> Disinformation Alert: Sweden has not reached heard immunity. They're not anywhere close.


Fact: cman cannot explain why Sweden had the peak of deaths on April 9th and why the deaths per day are virtually zero now if they did not reach herd immunity.

deaths/day Sweden




Fact: experts said that Sweden has reached herd immunity, you have to debate this with them not with me








						Sweden Has Developed Herd Immunity, Experts Claim. Others Point to its High Fatality Rate.
					

Sweden has seen 5,810 deaths from Covid-19, which is much more than its neighbors so the approach has come with a cost.




					www.barrons.com
				




Most likely a fact: some people see red when they hear the word Sweden


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## Cornell (Aug 25, 2020)

@DannyTS 

You meant to say “ Sverige”


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## Brett (Aug 25, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> As my eyes glaze over, trying to offer at least a fresh perspective (inspired but certainly not authorized by Danny).
> 
> Given the choice, where would you liked to have or would like to live in the future? Your choices are
> 
> ...



But what about *New Zealand* ?

(and the *big surge*)

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/watch/coronavirus-new-zealand


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## DannyTS (Aug 25, 2020)

cman said:


> Fact: Sweden has more deaths per capita than most countries on the planet. Now, if you want to look at countries that avoided lock downs and contained the virus, you need to look to Asia. South Korea would be a good place to start.


Fact: Many states and countries have a (much) bigger number of deaths per 1 million despite their lockdowns:





Fact: In Sweden most deaths occured in March,April and early May and those would have not been avoided by a lockdown in mid-March. Like New York, Sweden just had more infection at the beginning. CDC explained that there is a 4-8 week lag between the contact with an infected person and a reported death so please explain how a lockdown would have lowered the number significantly, even if lockdowns _were_ effective.

Fact: most countries have very unreliable data and that makes the comparison with Sweden difficult. Iran for example reported *363,000 infections* to date but their officials stated they had around *25 million infections*. How do you compare the two? 

Projections: US will exceed Sweden in the number of deaths/million in the next couple of weeks (probably sooner the way it is going). Other countries would also exceed Sweden in the next few weeks and months.

Fact: you will see no correlation between the states with the most stringent measures and the number of deaths/million

Fact: If you look state by state, the number of cases *started to trend down* *before* the lockdowns and *started to trend up* *before* the end of the lockdowns which puts further pressure on those who claim lockdowns are effective.


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## DannyTS (Aug 25, 2020)

Cornell said:


> @DannyTS
> 
> You meant to say “ Sverige”


lol I meant Sverige


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## Monykalyn (Aug 25, 2020)

am1 said:


> And the people on the bus for 3.5 hours?  There is a reason why it keeps spreading.  Her issue seems to be with her university.  No need to keep spreading it. Hopefully she recovers, no one gets infected from her poor choices and gets to a university that is willing to do more.


I am curious as to what you think she should have done? Stay in a filthy room? by herself with inadequate food and sanitation-possibly leading to a secondary lethal infection? Wait days longer in her room with her roommate? Walk home? What?
The reason it keeps spreading is because it is tiny tiny tiny particles and highly infectious. We could stay in a hermetically sealed bubble for 6 months and still find case 6 months later - see Korea, new Zealand etc. The virus will be there until no more wood to burn, and even then it's gonna find sticks to keep a low burn on. People who think we will ever get to zero cases are not facing reality. Reality is CFR is dropping and continuing to drop.
I am disappointed that the first responders didn't insist on her coming with them when they saw the living situation.
Doesn't say how many were on that bus with her. If all wore masks the risk is minimal. She was alone, the school had NO support, her parents were in a CDC high risk category-she had to make a choice out of a plethora of BAD choices. No I do NOT blame her. I blame the situation that only led to POOR choices.


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## Chrisky (Aug 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> *Save Yourself: Stop Believing in Lockdown*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What‽. ??  Sweden again!! 
It shows in the above post that I gave it a thumbs up.  That was a mistake, sorry.
☹


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## am1 (Aug 25, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I am curious as to what you think she should have done? Stay in a filthy room? by herself with inadequate food and sanitation-possibly leading to a secondary lethal infection? Wait days longer in her room with her roommate? Walk home? What?
> The reason it keeps spreading is because it is tiny tiny tiny particles and highly infectious. We could stay in a hermetically sealed bubble for 6 months and still find case 6 months later - see Korea, new Zealand etc. The virus will be there until no more wood to burn, and even then it's gonna find sticks to keep a low burn on. People who think we will ever get to zero cases are not facing reality. Reality is CFR is dropping and continuing to drop.
> I am disappointed that the first responders didn't insist on her coming with them when they saw the living situation.
> Doesn't say how many were on that bus with her. If all wore masks the risk is minimal. She was alone, the school had NO support, her parents were in a CDC high risk category-she had to make a choice out of a plethora of BAD choices. No I do NOT blame her. I blame the situation that only led to POOR choices.



But her and your choice keeps the cycle going.  Puts other people at risk.  In Iowa is using public transportation against the law if you know you are infected?  Did she inform the bus company she was infected so they could take proper measures to keep other safe? 

Getting together like they did the first day of college was a bad decision as well.  College should have had people quaratine in their dorms first before mingling.


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## DannyTS (Aug 25, 2020)

Chrisky said:


> What‽. ??  Sweden again!!
> It shows in the above post that I gave it a thumbs up.  That was a mistake, sorry.
> ☹


What do you mean by "Sweden again"? You cannot discuss the efficiency of a lockdown  without looking at  countries that did not lock down. Sweden is a good example because it has reliable data and because it has been widely covered so we know a lot about their Covid related measures.


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## Cornell (Aug 25, 2020)

The student from Univ of Iowa is featured in this story mid summer.  Her statement implies that she's not totally naive as to what the "rules and regs" are regarding Covid .

*Some students don’t have any other option but to bring their parents who work. UI first-year Annie Gaughan, who is from Park Ridge, said her parents are both teachers who will have to be back in person the week after move-in. They plan to move her within a 24-hour period, Gaughan said, so they can avoid the quarantine.*









						Students coming to the UI from Chicago share concerns about required travel quarantine
					

Some University of Iowa students from Illinois are worried about how Chicago’s mandatory quarantine on travelers will affect the people who plan to help them move to Iowa City. The Chicago Department of Health Commissioner Allison Arwady issued an Emergency Travel Order on July 2, requiring...




					dailyiowan.com


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 25, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> As my eyes glaze over, trying to offer at least a fresh perspective (inspired but certainly not authorized by Danny).
> 
> Given the choice, where would you liked to have or would like to live in the future? Your choices are
> 
> ...



Not sure what the purpose of this question is. I would choose Florida. I have no desire to live in Canada. I am from South Florida and my family lives there. Everyone I know in Florida is safe and healthy.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Fact: Many states and countries have a (much) bigger number of deaths per 1 million despite their lockdowns:
> 
> View attachment 25391
> 
> ...



I wonder if there is a way to look at deaths per million excluding nursing homes and essential workers. I think this would be a more accurate look at how states and countries are doing since this would reflect how the average person in a non-high risk category is doing.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 25, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I am curious as to what you think she should have done? Stay in a filthy room? by herself with inadequate food and sanitation-possibly leading to a secondary lethal infection? Wait days longer in her room with her roommate? Walk home? What?
> The reason it keeps spreading is because it is tiny tiny tiny particles and highly infectious. We could stay in a hermetically sealed bubble for 6 months and still find case 6 months later - see Korea, new Zealand etc. The virus will be there until no more wood to burn, and even then it's gonna find sticks to keep a low burn on. People who think we will ever get to zero cases are not facing reality. Reality is CFR is dropping and continuing to drop.
> I am disappointed that the first responders didn't insist on her coming with them when they saw the living situation.
> Doesn't say how many were on that bus with her. If all wore masks the risk is minimal. She was alone, the school had NO support, her parents were in a CDC high risk category-she had to make a choice out of a plethora of BAD choices. No I do NOT blame her. I blame the situation that only led to POOR choices.



We are all making assumptions based on one news article. We do not have the facts.


----------



## rapmarks (Aug 25, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I am curious as to what you think she should have done? Stay in a filthy room? by herself with inadequate food and sanitation-possibly leading to a secondary lethal infection? Wait days longer in her room with her roommate? Walk home? What?
> The reason it keeps spreading is because it is tiny tiny tiny particles and highly infectious. We could stay in a hermetically sealed bubble for 6 months and still find case 6 months later - see Korea, new Zealand etc. The virus will be there until no more wood to burn, and even then it's gonna find sticks to keep a low burn on. People who think we will ever get to zero cases are not facing reality. Reality is CFR is dropping and continuing to drop.
> I am disappointed that the first responders didn't insist on her coming with them when they saw the living situation.
> Doesn't say how many were on that bus with her. If all wore masks the risk is minimal. She was alone, the school had NO support, her parents were in a CDC high risk category-she had to make a choice out of a plethora of BAD choices. No I do NOT blame her. I blame the situation that only led to POOR choices.


What I missed is if she was going to go stay in a hotel, why take a long bus ride to a Chicago hotel. Why not go to a  nearby hotel


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## DannyTS (Aug 25, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> We are all making assumptions based on one news article. We do not have the facts.


With that article, somebody  managed to derail the thread pretty well. What that girl did is not_ that_ important.


----------



## am1 (Aug 25, 2020)

rapmarks said:


> What I missed is if she was going to go stay in a hotel, why take a long bus ride to a Chicago hotel. Why not go to a  nearby hotel



The $5 question.


----------



## "Roger" (Aug 25, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Not sure what the purpose of this question is. I would choose Florida. I have no desire to live in Canada. I am from South Florida and my family lives there. Everyone I know in Florida is safe and healthy.


You did miss the point. (Sorry) It had nothing to do with which location you find more desirable. It was a question about one's preference for lock down versus the hope for community immunity put in more familiar terms. Would you have preferred to have lived in Florida and taken your chances on the high number of hospitalizations and deaths that they have experienced so that you might reach community immunity, or, in Canada which has had a far lower number of hospitalizations and deaths but might be much further away from any community immunity. The note after the three choices is an acknowledgement that how strongly you believe that Sweden Florida is actually approaching community immunity would affect your choice

My own preference would be Canada, but maybe I am also being influenced by outside factors also (apart from my age which puts me into a higher risk category). I have had two trips outside of the United States cancelled already and fear that my wife and my plans to visit where we spent our honeymoon on our fiftieth anniversary will also be cancelled. Being stuck in the United States has been the pits.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 25, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> You did miss the point. (Sorry) It had nothing to do with which location you find more desirable. It was a question about one's preference for lock down versus the hope for community immunity put in more familiar terms. Would you have preferred to have lived in Florida and taken your chances on the high number of hospitalizations and deaths that they have experienced so that you might reach community immunity, or, in Canada which has had a far lower number of hospitalizations and deaths but might be much further away from any community immunity. The note after the three choices is an acknowledgement that how strongly you believe that Sweden Florida is actually approaching community immunity would affect your choice
> 
> My own preference would be Canada, but maybe I am also being influenced by outside factors also (apart from my age which puts me into a higher risk category). I have had two trips outside of the United States cancelled already and fear that my wife and my plans to visit where we spent our honeymoon on our fiftieth anniversary will also be cancelled. Being stuck in the United States has been the pits.


Everything else being equal, I would prefer to live where they already had more infections in the past since those with low infection rates are more vulnerable in the future.









						Parts of London and New York have already achieved 'substantial' immunity, Harvard epidemiologists say
					

Parts of London and New York have already achieved “substantial” immunity, with the threshold lower than previously thought, scientists have told the Telegraph. The results of recent antibody testing has led experts to predict that some areas might be better insulated from any second surge of...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 25, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> You did miss the point. (Sorry) It had nothing to do with which location you find more desirable. It was a question about one's preference for lock down versus the hope for community immunity put in more familiar terms. Would you have preferred to have lived in Florida and taken your chances on the high number of hospitalizations and deaths that they have experienced so that you might reach community immunity, or, in Canada which has had a far lower number of hospitalizations and deaths but might be much further away from any community immunity. The note after the three choices is an acknowledgement that how strongly you believe that Sweden Florida is actually approaching community immunity would affect your choice
> 
> My own preference would be Canada, but maybe I am also being influenced by outside factors also (apart from my age which puts me into a higher risk category). I have had two trips outside of the United States cancelled already and fear that my wife and my plans to visit where we spent our honeymoon on our fiftieth anniversary will also be cancelled. Being stuck in the United States has been the pits.



I suspected that you were asking this to get an idea of how risk averse we are since you mention something about immunity was but it was not clear to me. I answered the question based on my assessment of risk so I said I would prefer Florida. My family lives there and so far no one has gotten sick or died that we know and several family members are essential workers. I do not see living in FL as a big risk if you follow safety guidelines. Immunity does not affect my choice.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 25, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Everything else being equal, I would prefer to live where they already had more infections in the past since those with low infection rates are more vulnerable in the future.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good point. I would not hypothetically choose where to live based on Covid.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 25, 2020)

*We could ‘beat’ COVID-19 before a vaccine is ready*








						We could ‘beat’ COVID-19 before a vaccine is ready
					

Is a vaccine the only way to return to normal after COVID-19? New research into the virus suggests not — that the infection rate may drop to tiny levels before then. Since the spring, scientists h…




					nypost.com


----------



## geekette (Aug 25, 2020)

am1 said:


> But her and your choice keeps the cycle going.  Puts other people at risk.  In Iowa is using public transportation against the law if you know you are infected?  Did she inform the bus company she was infected so they could take proper measures to keep other safe?
> 
> Getting together like they did the first day of college was a bad decision as well.  College should have had people quaratine in their dorms first before mingling.


The college told her to not even tell her parents she tested positive.  I doubt they would have encouraged her to tell anyone.  

College did not undertake these ideas of yours.  Students moved freely.  It sounds like most were masked.  That is not perfect protection.

How do you quarantine in a dorm with shared bathrooms and eating facilities and pretend there is no chance of spread?  enclosed building, sharing air.  

Do you really think that dorm quarantine would have solved anything?


----------



## geekette (Aug 25, 2020)

rapmarks said:


> What I missed is if she was going to go stay in a hotel, why take a long bus ride to a Chicago hotel. Why not go to a  nearby hotel


I think she was trying to get nearer her parents.   The only people that would visit or pay her hospital bills, if it came to that.  She was sick, and wanted to go home, and couldn't really do that, either.   Not sure how the college student was going to pay hotel bill, either.  I would have needed Dad to bail me out or run up big credit debt.

I don't know, tho, just throwing a guess out there.


----------



## am1 (Aug 25, 2020)

That was the college trying to protect their image.  That should have no bearing on her getting on a bus exposing others.  No doubt she has beef and maybe a case against University of Iowa. The strength coach walked away with 1.1 million plus benefits after being accused of bias behavior.  

Yes more measures could have been taken in regards to people from all over coming to campus. This will happen at all universities and already students are being sent home or at least kicked off campus. A true disaster that was just waiting to happen.  Her parents and her should have thought her being infected was a possibility or getting infected while on campus.


----------



## Cornell (Aug 25, 2020)

I have an alternative story to share.  Just talked to a good friend of mine.  Her son voluntarily took a covid test 2 days before he left for college.  Negative.  Got to campus and had to get tested again as part of the mass-testing that colleges are doing.  He tested postiive.  Told he had to quarantine on campus at some "covid dorm" for 14 days .  He had his dad come pick him up to take him home to quarantine instead.  Got home and took a rapid covid test once he got there:  negative.  Lots of false positives on these tests and they have big ramifications on people. 

CDC is currently NOT recommending testing of asymptotic  people.


----------



## geekette (Aug 25, 2020)

....Her parents and her should have thought her being infected was a possibility or getting infected while on campus. 

And?   Believed administrators that they had a plan in case that happened?   Did they understand that infection would mean unsanitary dorm with very strange meals (cold rice?  does anyone eat that except my dog?) and exactly 36 oz of water per day?  Were they told that their young daughter might have to walk across campus by herself in the middle of the night with all her provisions for 14 days and no help?  Did they know that their daughter would be pressured to not tell them she was infected?  Was that all part of the upfront college plan conveyed to them before she agreed to go to campus?   

I agree, if you are planning to go somewhere with lots of people, risk of infection is pretty high, mask or not.   

to me, the infected college student ended up in a desperate situation.  Desperate people do desperate things.   she is hardly the lone superspreader of the nation....


----------



## jabberwocky (Aug 25, 2020)

"Roger" said:


> My own preference would be Canada, but maybe I am also being influenced by outside factors also (apart from my age which puts me into a higher risk category). I have had two trips outside of the United States cancelled already and fear that my wife and my plans to visit where we spent our honeymoon on our fiftieth anniversary will also be cancelled. Being stuck in the United States has been the pits.



“Canada” is a pretty big country is very decentralized - I would argue much more than the US in the sense that the provinces run the show when it comes to healthcare and public health orders. Each of these provinces has had very different approaches and the federal government has had no real involvement. Some did complete lockdowns and even banned non-residents from coming into the province. Others have been much more relaxed and had a very broad definition of essential services and hardly locked down. 

Some provinces had a huge amount of cases with corresponding deaths (although around 80% are nursing homes in Canada). Others are just seeing the first wave come through. 

Our metro area is a current hotspot and it is getting worse. The city has a bit over one million people, but our active cases per 100,000 is higher than Florida currently is in some pockets.  The New York Times lists Florida at around 124/100k. The sub-zone of the city where my parents live is at 149/100k.  The average for the city as a whole is around 98/100k.  Despite this, there are 22 hospitalized cases in the city, three of which are ICU.  No one seems to be panicking even though we’re headed in the wrong direction and arguably worse than many parts of the US.

So why are we so smug in thinking we’re so much better than the US is?  If you ask me where I would prefer to live right now, I would say Florida.  Being stuck in Canada has been the pits.


----------



## am1 (Aug 25, 2020)

geekette said:


> ....Her parents and her should have thought her being infected was a possibility or getting infected while on campus.
> 
> And?   Believed administrators that they had a plan in case that happened?   Did they understand that infection would mean unsanitary dorm with very strange meals (cold rice?  does anyone eat that except my dog?) and exactly 36 oz of water per day?  Were they told that their young daughter might have to walk across campus by herself in the middle of the night with all her provisions for 14 days and no help?  Did they know that their daughter would be pressured to not tell them she was infected?  Was that all part of the upfront college plan conveyed to them before she agreed to go to campus?
> 
> ...



That is an issue between her, her parents and the university.  Did they call beforehand and ask what the protocol was?  Desperate people go to jail as well.  Probably on a higher basis then non desperate people. Non of that should have bearing on exposing others to covid over a 3.5 bus trip.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 25, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> “Canada” is a pretty big country is very decentralized - I would argue much more than the US in the sense that the provinces run the show when it comes to healthcare and public health orders. Each of these provinces has had very different approaches and the federal government has had no real involvement. Some did complete lockdowns and even banned non-residents from coming into the province. Others have been much more relaxed and had a very broad definition of essential services and hardly locked down.
> 
> Some provinces had a huge amount of cases with corresponding deaths (although around 80% are nursing homes in Canada). Others are just seeing the first wave come through.
> 
> ...



Lots of people are moving to Florida right now. It can’t be that bad.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 25, 2020)

Sad story about a little boy who struggles with online learning.









						A mother captured an emotional photo of her son crying in virtual class to show difficulties of distance learning during pandemic — CNN
					

When her son returned to virtual learning last week, Jana Coombs saw him struggling.




					apple.news


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 25, 2020)

These mental health statistics are scary.









						Coronavirus Today: The COVID blues — Los Angeles Times
					

Our special-edition newsletter breaks down the latest coronavirus news, including the severe impact the pandemic is having on Californians' mental health.




					apple.news
				




In late July, more than 41% of adults in the U.S. reported levels of worry and sadness typically associated with an anxiety or major depressive disorder, according to survey data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. At the same time last year, that figure was just 11%.

The numbers were worse in California — where 44% reported those high levels of anxiety and depression — as well as in other states in the West and South, where coronavirus cases surged in the summer. The pattern suggests anxiety levels may rise alongside the spread of the virus. Time will tell whether reducing the virus' spread also helps reduce mental health issues.

Californians with lower incomes also reported higher levels of anxiety or depression in the survey. And perhaps surprisingly, younger Californians expressed far more anxiety and depression than older Californians, even though people in older age groups are far more likely to fall severely ill from the virus. While 73% of Californians between 18 and 29 said they were "not being able to stop or control worrying," just 42% of those over 80 agreed with that statement. The results echo those of another recent survey that found elevated levels of mental health challenges among Americans, particularly young adults.


----------



## Cornell (Aug 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Sad story about a little boy who struggles with online learning.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I posted this on another thread and was told to stop whining .


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I posted this on another thread and was told to stop whining .



I must have missed your post. You and I have a lot of empathy for children.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I posted this on another thread and was told to stop whining .



BTW did you notice the mental health stats in the article I just posted? 73% of Californians between 18 and 29 said they were "not being able to stop or control worrying." These stats are scary.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 26, 2020)

-


----------



## PigsDad (Aug 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> BTW did you notice the mental health stats in the article I just posted? 73% of Californians between 18 and 29 said they were "not being able to stop or control worrying." These stats are scary.


It doesn't surprise me that the young are being adversely affected in large numbers/percentages.  That group is probably the group that is hit hardest by the economic impact -- more likely to be working in the service businesses that have been shutdown across the board, more likely to have less savings to cushion any financial impact, more likely to be unemployed, etc.  

Far too often we see people brush off the economic impact of this pandemic as unimportant, and that is mostly by people who are more at risk of the disease due to age and are definitely more financially stable.  I've even witnessed this older, more financially stable group of people stating that it is _immoral _to compare the economic impact to the medical impact that this pandemic is causing.  That is also scary, IMO.

Kurt


----------



## Cornell (Aug 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> And perhaps surprisingly, younger Californians expressed far more anxiety and depression than older Californians, even though people in older age groups are far more likely to fall severely ill from the virus.


This completely echoes the Franklin Templeton / Gallup / Dynata survey that was done last month which shows that the levels of anxiety about C19 are hugely disproportional when it comes to age cohort.

My belief is that if this had happened pre-internet, we wouldn't be in the mess we are now.


----------



## Brett (Aug 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> This completely echoes the Franklin Templeton / Gallup / Dynata survey that was done last month which shows that the levels of anxiety about C19 are hugely disproportional when it comes to age cohort.
> 
> My belief is that if this had happened pre-internet, we wouldn't be in the mess we are now.



for sure if the pandemic happened pre-internet you wouldn't have so many people working from home and remote learning, etc. and reacting to social media like twitter 

if by "mess" you mean people getting sick and dying, that would be the same or more

but if you mean by the  big "mess" we wouldn't be in now  ......


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 26, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> BTW did you notice the mental health stats in the article I just posted? 73% of Californians between 18 and 29 said they were "not being able to stop or control worrying." These stats are scary.


The current approach to  quarantine the healthy to protect the sick does not make a lot of sense for the younger people so it is very hard for them to feel a sense of unity. Someone who is not at risk, graduated with a boatload of debt, got married and has children that have to be fed and educated may not understand why he has to default on his mortgage to "save" grandma who can actually save herself by staying home for a few months (who will do it anyway). Grandma on the other hand does not even know what is going on. If you read the Franklyn Templeton survey, the death rate of young people is misunderstood by 40 times (people think it is 40 times higher than in reality)! So grandma thinks they are all in this together while the young family cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel and calls it BS.


----------



## caribbeanqueen (Aug 26, 2020)

Cornell, not sure about that. Suicides, drug abuse, mental health are all way up due to this virus and the shut down. You could argue the media hyping it up more helped with anxiety and worry but I believe the shut down has caused the majority of these upticks. It is worse than anyone can imagine.
Businesses are tanking, the economy is so bad one wonders how long it will take to come back.  There is so much more to this. 
In RI it just came out their numbers were skewed 10% higher.  Most deaths are elderly and many are said to have died from Covid but you now have to wonder who really died from it? My mom is in a nursing home in Florida that has had 30 deaths. Her roommate was one of the first to get it yet she did not thankfully.  Masks and social distance DO WORK.  Now you have the young adults and teens hanging out in big groups with no masks. They are the ones bringing up many of the bumps in cases.  
FWIW I  worked in the healthcare field for years and feel perfectly safe going out and about anywhere as long as I can wear a mask if I am around too many people, in the stores, etc. I never wear a mask outside but also I have not been in any type of group setting except a beach where everyone was distanced quite a bit. I wore my mask getting on and off the beach.  I think the shut downs are not needed. Distancing and wearing a mask are all that is needed.  I do believe in herd immunity and keeping the elderly and those with compromised immune systems home and safe.  JMO


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## WVBaker (Aug 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> My belief is that if this had happened pre-internet, we wouldn't be in the mess we are now.



The internet plays such an important role in our daily lives in both good and bad ways. In ways we're not even aware of. When we look at the number of individuals suspected of having C-19, do we verify the positivity rate of those cases? I've watched the numbers for Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C. over the past few weeks and noted that when reported, you may have perhaps several hundreds of cases reported however, the positivity rate for those numbers is only a small percentage. Perhaps only 3 to 5 percent. We keep hearing of the large number of those returning to school, coming down with C-19 but, within those reports, is this the actual tested and verified numbers? Do we even know to look for that information or do we just stop?

Just as a side note regarding the internet. When we have the constant changing of suspected symptoms, not only on the internet but news reports, how does that play on each of us?

A very good piece on how hearing those symptoms every day and every night.

"Suzanne O’Sullivan is a neurologist specializing in epilepsy who practices in London. Many of her patients suffer from so-called conversion disorders: somatic symptoms caused by psychological distress that defy ready diagnosis by medical tests or physical examination. “They are medical disorders like no others,” O’Sullivan writes. “They obey no rules. They can affect any part of the body…. Almost any symptom we can imagine can become real when we are in distress.”

"...., I still found myself, desperate for time, deeply resenting these patients’ requests for attention. “Psychiatric disorders manifesting as physical disease are at the very bottom of that pile,” O’Sullivan notes. “They are the charlatans of illnesses. We laugh at them.”

"How easily we accept…different facets of laughter. It is a physical display of emotion, its mechanism is ill-understood, it is not always under our voluntary control, it affects our whole body, it stops our breathing and speeds up our heart, it serves a purpose, it releases tension and communicates feelings. Laughter is the ultimate psychosomatic symptom."

Sick But Not Sick
The mind is one of the most powerful generators of bodily symptoms.









						Sick But Not Sick | Jerome Groopman
					

Suzanne O’Sullivan is a neurologist specializing in epilepsy who practices in London. Many of her patients suffer from so-called conversion disorders: somatic symptoms caused by psychological distress that defy ready diagnosis by medical tests or physical examination. “They are medical disorders...




					getpocket.com


----------



## grupp (Aug 26, 2020)

There are a lot of health issues that will result from the hard lockdowns that we will never be able to measure. Using myself as an example, once our Governor allowed some things to open, I needed to go to my Dr to for am annual check up in mid-June in order to refill my blood pressure medication. During the appointment I mention I had a few spots on my face and was  wondering if it was anything to be concerned about. She said nothing appeared to be very alarming, but recommending an appointment with a Dermatologist since I have very fair skin and am sun sensitive. They were not taking in person appointments until July and thought it might be good time to schedule something once they open.

I called to schedule my appointment and was given the option of virtual appointment in a few days or in person in late July. I decided to go for the virtual appointment. Found out the spots on my skin were pre-cancer and easily treated, but wanted me to come in to look at another spot on the side of my face. During the call I as an afterthought I also had them look at at a spot on top of my head my wife had noticed and they believed it to be an age spot and again nothing that appears to be a concern. The Dr said her office would contact me to schedule an appointment when the opened in a few weeks to treat my pre-cancer and look closer at the spot on face and the top of my head. 

July comes and never receive a call for the follow up appointment. I was busy with work an probably let it go longer than I should have and finally decided to follow up mid-July. Due the backlog from the lockdown the next available appointment was now the end of November. I was little frustrated, not because I had any concerns, but that they hadn't followed through and contacted me for the appointment and now I was looking at another 4 months. I asked the scheduler to send a note to the Dr and see if she could find a way to fit me in since they had dropped the ball on scheduling my follow up, which they were able to do and I got in last week.  The Dr did apologize for them not calling to schedule my appointment, but said when they reopened on July 1, things were crazy with them trying to get organized and everyone trying to get in for an appointment.

Turns out the spot on the top of my head was not an age spot but is nodular melanoma, which is the most aggressive form. While  nodular melanoma only is about 15-25% of melanoma diagnoses it caused about half the deaths. From what I have read, it can, it can become fatal within months of diagnosis. As one article I read put it, this type of melanoma spreads in weeks and months not months and years. Fortunately mine is in the early stages and am having it removed next week. When my Dr called to give me news she said 4 o 5 times how lucky I was I came in when I did.

From what I understand, the 5 yr survival rate for my T1A  nodular melanoma is around 98% or maybe slightly less since it is on my scalp. If it had progressed to stage 3 the survival rate goes down to around around 65% and stage 4 goes down to 25%. 

Sorry for the long post, but my point is that these hard lockdowns have unintended consequences that are not easily measured or even noticed. There will be missed diagnosis and treatment of health issues that are not related to the virus it self. If my State had not reopened for in person appointments when they did, my prognosis may have been quite different and I am sure there are many who will not be as fortunate as me.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 26, 2020)

grupp said:


> There are a lot of health issues that will result from the hard lockdowns that we will never be able to measure. Using myself as an example, once our Governor allowed some things to open, I needed to go to my Dr to for am annual check up in mid-June in order to refill my blood pressure medication. During the appointment I mention I had a few spots on my face and was  wondering if it was anything to be concerned about. She said nothing appeared to be very alarming, but recommending an appointment with a Dermatologist since I have very fair skin and am sun sensitive. They were not taking in person appointments until July and thought it might be good time to schedule something once they open.
> 
> I called to schedule my appointment and was given the option of virtual appointment in a few days or in person in late July. I decided to go for the virtual appointment. Found out the spots on my skin were pre-cancer and easily treated, but wanted me to come in to look at another spot on the side of my face. During the call I as an afterthought I also had them look at at a spot on top of my head my wife had noticed and they believed it to be an age spot and again nothing that appears to be a concern. The Dr said her office would contact me to schedule an appointment when the opened in a few weeks to treat my pre-cancer and look closer at the spot on face and the top of my head.
> 
> ...



I am glad you got in when you did. I hope you will be okay.


----------



## DavidnRobin (Aug 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> CDC no longer recommends asymptomatic testing
> 
> View attachment 25363
> 
> ...



As a Scientist (retired) in the field of disease modeling for years - I was extremely surprised and sad to see this.
Without testing, there is no way to accurately determine the asymptomatic rates (as they carry SARS-CoV-2 up to 40%), and people do not know if they are carriers or if they have come into contact with carriers...) as long as testing asymptomatic people doesn’t impact testing positives (that no longer exists). Not to test makes no sense scientifically.

I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries.









						C.D.C. Now Says People Without Covid-19 Symptoms Do Not Need Testing (Published 2020)
					

The revision prompted confusion and alarm from experts, who called the move “potentially dangerous.”




					www.nytimes.com
				




Interesting as I was writing this - the following should showed up on our local far-left fake news outlet (sarcasm).






and Danny - no need to respond - you’ve been muted for a while...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS (Aug 26, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> As a Scientist (retired) in the field of disease modeling for years - I was extremely surprised and sad to see this.
> Without testing, there is no way to accurately determine the asymptomatic rates (as they carry SARS-CoV-2 up to 40%), and people do not know if they are carriers or if they have come into contact with carriers...) as long as testing asymptomatic people doesn’t impact testing positives (that no longer exists). Not to test makes no sense scientifically.
> 
> I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries.
> ...


It is follow the science but only when you agree with them, I know.


----------



## jabberwocky (Aug 26, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> As a Scientist (retired) in the field of disease modeling for years - I was extremely surprised and sad to see this.
> Without testing, there is no way to accurately determine the asymptomatic rates (as they carry SARS-CoV-2 up to 40%), and people do not know if they are carriers or if they have come into contact with carriers...) as long as testing asymptomatic people doesn’t impact testing positives (that no longer exists). Not to test makes no sense scientifically.


You're defining science a bit too narrowly - behavioral scientists may have a different view.  If your sole objective in testing is to determine asymptomatic rates, then of course you want to test as many people as possible.  Actually, you would probably want to do it as simultaneously as possible with a large non-biased sample.  What Hong Kong is doing right now with testing nearly their whole population in seven days is a good example of this. I'm a big proponent of testing and contact tracing as I believe they are critical to containing the spread of the disease.

There is also an alternative hypothesis for why you would not recommend the widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals: people do stupid things.  There is a large proportion of people who after they have been cleared for covid may decide that they can engage in risky behaviors because they are "virus-free".  This would be a problem if the test doesn't have good enough specificity to avoid false negatives or if they pick it up shortly after the test is done.  There are legitimate reasons for asymptomatic people to get a test (required for work, high-risk group, travel).  As far as I know, there is no prohibition on asymptomatic individuals getting a test and capacity seems to be sufficient in most places.  That is very different from actively recommending everyone gets tested.


----------



## davidvel (Aug 26, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> You're defining science a bit too narrowly - behavioral scientists may have a different view. pointsIf your sole objective in testing is to determine asymptomatic rates, then of course you want to test as many people as possible.  Actually, you would probably want to do it as simultaneously as possible with a large non-biased sample.  What Hong Kong is doing right now with testing nearly their whole population in seven days is a good example of this. I'm a big proponent of testing and contact tracing as I believe they are critical to containing the spread of the disease.
> 
> There is also an alternative hypothesis for why you would not recommend the widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals: people do stupid things.  There is a large proportion of people who after they have been cleared for covid may decide that they can engage in risky behaviors because they are "virus-free".  This would be a problem if the test doesn't have good enough specificity to avoid false negatives or if they pick it up shortly after the test is done.  There are legitimate reasons for asymptomatic people to get a test (required for work, high-risk group, travel).  As far as I know, there is no prohibition on asymptomatic individuals getting a test and capacity seems to be sufficient in most places.  That is very different from actively recommending everyone gets tested.


There may be lots of objectives for testing various ways, but how you test certainly impacts public viewpoints and governmental policy.  The more you test symptomatic cases, and the fewer asymptomatic are tested, the higher the rates of positive tests you will see. Many governments are using these rates to shut down people and businesses.


----------



## WVBaker (Aug 26, 2020)

*"Avoid posting about politics, religion, or contentious social issues"*


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 26, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> And now...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


this is probably an attempt to get the thread closed by the administrators. I hope they will see it for what it is. By the way, the article is probably a case of "she said he said" like we have seen so many in the past. In the article:

But Dr. Giroir denied that politics were involved.

“There was no weight on the scales by the (removed),” he said, referring to (removed), the secretary of health and human services. “This was a product produced by the scientific and medical people that was discussed extensively at the task force.”

note: I removed the names myself


----------



## PigsDad (Aug 26, 2020)

davidvel said:


> There may be lots of objectives for testing various ways, but how you test certainly impacts public viewpoints and governmental policy.  *The more you test symptomatic cases, and the fewer asymptomatic are tested, the higher the rates of positive tests you will see. *Many governments are using these rates to shut down people and businesses.


I think a lot of people don't take this into consideration when looking at the positive test rates that are published.  It makes no sense to use the positive test percentage for any kind of analysis or decision making unless they are _only _using data from the testing of a random sample of people.

Kurt


----------



## Cornell (Aug 26, 2020)

Isn't anyone concerned about false positives with mass testing of asymptotic  people ?  And the implications they can cause?   I know I am.


----------



## Rjbeach2003 (Aug 26, 2020)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview
					

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.




					www.webmd.com
				












						Sweden embraced herd immunity, while the U.K. abandoned the idea — so why do they both have high COVID-19 fatality rates?
					

‘Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sight,’ according to an analysis in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.




					www.marketwatch.com
				












						Sweden is developing herd immunity, some of the country’s experts claim, but the figures say otherwise
					

Sweden has an overall COVID-related death rate of 57.12 per 100,000, which is the ninth highest in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University




					www.marketwatch.com
				












						Stop Trying To Make ‘Herd Immunity’ Happen: Sweden’s Attempt At Covid-19 Herd Immunity Failed
					

Health authorities predicted that 40% of the Stockholm population would have had the disease and acquired antibodies by May 2020. The actual prevalence figure is around 15%.




					www.forbes.com
				




These are just four links to stories on herd immunity in that country across the water from Denmark, and sharing a border with Finland and Norway.  It looks like there is no definitive answer.  If it pleases you to believe in Herd Immunity or not.  Note Marketwatch had articles 3 days apart with opposing headlines.  
However I defer to the world's leading scientists on herd immunity and pandemics that post here.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 26, 2020)

Rjbeach2003 said:


> Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview
> 
> 
> COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.
> ...


There is no law I know that states that the virus has to spread equally among neighboring countries (even those with identical measures) and that that's the only comparison that matters. Have you noticed that *none* of those "leading scientists" mentions the most obvious fact, that Sweden's number of deaths has been virtually zero for a month? I also have to point out that many scientists have a vested interest in Sweden's failure, Sweden's success would mean they have been wrong about a lot of things concerning this pandemic.

deaths/day Sweden


----------



## Brett (Aug 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> Isn't anyone concerned about false positives with mass testing of asymptotic  people ?  And the implications they can cause?   I know I am.



it's on the news tonight -





https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...top-stories_virus-cdc-330p:homepage/story-ans


----------



## Cornell (Aug 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> it's on the news tonight -
> 
> View attachment 25478
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...top-stories_virus-cdc-330p:homepage/story-ans


I can’t read this bc of the paywall so not sure how this addresses my question.


----------



## Brett (Aug 26, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I can’t read this bc of the paywall so not sure how this addresses my question.



the first two paragraphs

"An abrupt shift this week in government testing guidelines for Americans exposed to the novel coronavirus was directed by the White House coronavirus task force, surprising and *dismaying many public health experts.*

The new guidance, introduced this week without any announcement in a posting on the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, eliminated advice that everyone exposed to the virus through close contact with an infected individual get tested to find out whether they are positive, regardless of whether they have symptoms.
Several leading infectious-disease experts say they feared the change will increase public confusion and further spread of the disease. The CDC estimates that 40 percent of those infected with the coronavirus have no symptoms but may spread it to other people."

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...lines-could-lead-to-less-testing-experts-fear


----------



## Cornell (Aug 26, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA


I'm worried about the politicizing of our children's educations.


----------



## Brett (Aug 26, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> As a Scientist (retired) in the field of disease modeling for years - I was extremely surprised and sad to see this.
> Without testing, there is no way to accurately determine the asymptomatic rates (as they carry SARS-CoV-2 up to 40%), and people do not know if they are carriers or if they have come into contact with carriers...) as long as testing asymptomatic people doesn’t impact testing positives (that no longer exists). Not to test makes no sense scientifically.
> 
> I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries.
> ...



*"I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries."*

That ship has already sailed .....


----------



## WVBaker (Aug 26, 2020)

Brett said:


> *"I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries."*
> 
> That ship has already sailed .....



"_Worrying is like a rocking chair, it gives you something to do, but it gets you nowhere_."  
Glenn Turner


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 26, 2020)

*Lockdown-free Brazilian city ‘reaches herd immunity’ as coronavirus cases suddenly fall *










						Lockdown-free Brazilian city ‘reaches herd immunity’ as virus cases fall
					

A CITY in Brazil which did not lockdown may have reached herd immunity, experts have said. Manaus, in the Amazon, has seen a dramatic fall in coronavirus cases and deaths since hitting 3,300 fatali…




					www.thesun.co.uk


----------



## davidvel (Aug 26, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> *Lockdown-free Brazilian city ‘reaches herd immunity’ as coronavirus cases suddenly fall *
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If my math is right, they have a death per population rate of .165% vs. .061% for the US, or about 2.75x as many deaths per population.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 26, 2020)

davidvel said:


> If my math is right, they have a death per population rate of .165% vs. .061% for the US, or about 2.75x as many deaths per population.


Their death rate is terrible. Probably they did not protect the population at risk, they are an example of what not to do. I posted the article because it seems to be another strong  indication that we do not need 60-70% to reach herd immunity with this virus.


----------



## DavidnRobin (Aug 27, 2020)

Here you go - knowledge is good.
Free and Open to public.









						New Subject Offering: "COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 and the Pandemic"
					

In Fall 2020, all MIT students and the general public are welcome to join Professors Richard Young and Facundo Batista as they discuss the science of the pandemic during this new class.




					biology.mit.edu
				




Syllabus:





Enjoy.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 27, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> Here you go - knowledge is good.
> Free and Open to public.
> 
> 
> ...


They are off for a good start. Dr. Bruce Walker began the project back in March with money from China Evergrande Group owned by one of the richest men in China and with strong connections to the ruling party. I wonder how they got the money so fast. Prior engagements? Why did they need 115 million dollars? That is 1.4 million dollars for every scientist in the project.










						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org
				




I am curious if they are going to begin the course by acknowledging that the initial models were dead wrong.


----------



## WinniWoman (Aug 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I suspected that you were asking this to get an idea of how risk averse we are since you mention something about immunity was but it was not clear to me. I answered the question based on my assessment of risk so I said I would prefer Florida. My family lives there and so far no one has gotten sick or died that we know and several family members are essential workers. I do not see living in FL as a big risk if you follow safety guidelines. Immunity does not affect my choice.



I know a ton of people in Florida and none thankfully have gotten COVID and some are older folks. We are ruining younger people’s lives and businesses with this lockdown stuff instead of just the vulnerable being the ones to be isolated. Oh wait, I’m 64-  Nope not isolating  myself either by choice if I can help it. I’d move wherever I wanted to despite COVID numbers. Ok it helps I don’t like urban areas. And mask up only in places I need to go to where they are required- but only IF required. So I would move wherever there are the least restrictions or no restrictions IF I ever were to move again which I don’t see doing. NH has had less restrictions than other places but for me still too many.


----------



## bluehende (Aug 27, 2020)

DavidnRobin said:


> Here you go - knowledge is good.
> Free and Open to public.
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks for posting


----------



## rapmarks (Aug 27, 2020)

Spoke to health professional today in  Wisconsin who reiterated that wearing masks has lowered the incidence of Covid in Wisconsin. The mask mandate went into effect august 1


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 27, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> I know a ton of people in Florida and none thankfully have gotten COVID and some are older folks. We are ruining younger people’s lives and businesses with this lockdown stuff instead of just the vulnerable being the ones to be isolated. Oh wait, I’m 64-  Nope not isolating  myself either by choice if I can help it. I’d move wherever I wanted to despite COVID numbers. Ok it helps I don’t like urban areas. And mask up only in places I need to go to where they are required- but only IF required. So I would move wherever there are the least restrictions or no restrictions IF I ever were to move again which I don’t see doing. NH has had less restrictions than other places but for me still too many.



Covid is a short term issue. I hope the people who are making permanent moves are moving places they can stay long term. A lot of people are moving to the suburbs and rural places but I wonder what will happen if/when their jobs call them back. For example, Amazon and Apple are renting more office space in NYC. I suspect the WFH will not last forever.


----------



## WinniWoman (Aug 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Covid is a short term issue. I hope the people who are making permanent moves are moving places they can stay long term. A lot of people are moving to the suburbs and rural places but I wonder what will happen if/when their jobs call them back. For example, Amazon and Apple are renting more office space in NYC. I suspect the WFH will not last forever.



Totally agree. We saw this in NY after 9/11. And people buying McMansions in the burbs and rural areas, only to lose their jobs or  suddenly realize that long commute was to hard to handle. And the country lifestyle did not have the conveniences they were used to. Then selling or foreclosing on their homes they paid way too much money for in the first place, though to them at the time they were “ bargains”.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 27, 2020)

Sweden continues to relax the measures:

*Swedish Health Agency approves limited soccer crowds*










						Swedish Health Agency approves limited soccer crowds | SaltWire
					

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Swedish concert goers and soccer fans can be allowed back in venues from October after the country's Health Agency accepted a ...




					www.theguardian.pe.ca


----------



## Chrispee (Aug 27, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Totally agree. We saw this in NY after 9/11. And people buying McMansions in the burbs and rural areas, only to lose their jobs or  suddenly realize that long commute was to hard to handle. And the country lifestyle did not have the conveniences they were used to. Then selling or foreclosing on their homes they paid way too much money for in the first place, though to them at the time they were “ bargains”.



Not to diminish its significance, but 9/11 was an acute event that killed 2977 people in a short defined time span. Coronavirus has killed 833,173 (Worldometers) people as I post this and it is an ongoing event with no resolution in sight. IMO the two aren’t anywhere near comparable when predicting long term societal and behavioural changes.


----------



## Brett (Aug 27, 2020)

*Norway to allow companies to send staff home



*
https://www.thelocal.no/20200813/norway-to-allow-companies-to-send-staff-home-until-next-year


----------



## Big Matt (Aug 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Covid is a short term issue. I hope the people who are making permanent moves are moving places they can stay long term. A lot of people are moving to the suburbs and rural places but I wonder what will happen if/when their jobs call them back. For example, Amazon and Apple are renting more office space in NYC. I suspect the WFH will not last forever.


This is going to be prolonged.  Companies will not require people to come back to the office for a really long time.  It is near impossible to socially distance in most office environments.  In big metro areas with high rise buildings you can't cram people into elevators.  In Manhattan, people aren't going to take the subway to work in droves like before.  The liability for a company who mandates workers on site isn't worth the trouble.  I see the short term issue going out approximately 3 years and by then the norm has changed.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 27, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> This is going to be prolonged.  Companies will not require people to come back to the office for a really long time.  It is near impossible to socially distance in most office environments.  In big metro areas with high rise buildings you can't cram people into elevators.  In Manhattan, people aren't going to take the subway to work in droves like before.  The liability for a company who mandates workers on site isn't worth the trouble.  I see the short term issue going out approximately 3 years and by then the norm has changed.



I hope you are right. I prefer the work from home situation. I hope it never returns to normal.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 27, 2020)

At the same time, big tech companies are moving in. 









						Facebook Bets Big on Future of N.Y.C., and Offices, With New Lease (Published 2020)
					

Despite the pandemic, the social media giant leased all the office space in the former main post office at Penn Station in Midtown.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 27, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> At the same time, big tech companies are moving in.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



A lot of companies are expanding in NYC now. Amazon and Apple just expanded too. I suspect the WFH is short term and they will call employees back to the office. Otherwise, why are they expanding office space?

My employees want to go back to the office. The homes in the Bay Area are small and they do not have a separate space to work. The clients want to come back to the office too. I am the one saying no, not yet.


----------



## jabberwocky (Aug 27, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Otherwise, why are they expanding office space?


Social distancing?


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 27, 2020)

jabberwocky said:


> Social distancing?



If they are expanding for social distancing, then they will be calling employees back to work in the office.


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Aug 27, 2020)

To allow companies to send staff home?  Way different economy.


----------



## PigsDad (Aug 28, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> This is going to be prolonged.  Companies will not require people to come back to the office for a really long time.  It is near impossible to socially distance in most office environments.  In big metro areas with high rise buildings you can't cram people into elevators.  In Manhattan, people aren't going to take the subway to work in droves like before.  The liability for a company who mandates workers on site isn't worth the trouble.  I see the short term issue going out approximately 3 years and by then the norm has changed.


I work for a fairly large (60K+ employees), global high tech company, and they have a three phase plan for reintroducing employees back to the office.  20%, 50% and 100%.  We are currently not even in phase 1 yet, and their latest estimate is for phase 3 to be sometime next summer.  They have also said that even after the offices are fully open, they will not force anyone to come back to the office if they wish to remain working from home.

Kurt


----------



## Big Matt (Aug 28, 2020)

Office space and social distancing........can't put everyone in a bullpen.  No more huddle rooms.  Can't hold big presentations in theater like rooms with everyone crammed in.  Plus, now everyone will have to wear masks.  Many companies are investing in monitors that you have to wear to facilitate contact tracing.  Sounds surreal.

One company I work with told me that they are now at 150 square feet per employee and need to get to 250 in order to socially distance.  These are realities.


----------



## Old Hickory (Aug 28, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> This is going to be prolonged.  Companies will not require people to come back to the office for a really long time.  It is near impossible to socially distance in most office environments.  In big metro areas with high rise buildings you can't cram people into elevators.  In Manhattan, people aren't going to take the subway to work in droves like before.  The liability for a company who mandates workers on site isn't worth the trouble.  I see the short term issue going out approximately 3 years and by then the norm has changed.



 3 years?   I could see how some cities will never recover but it won't be due to the virus.


----------



## Big Matt (Aug 29, 2020)

Old Hickory said:


> 3 years?   I could see how some cities will never recover but it won't be due to the virus.


Not sure what you are talking about.  I never said anything about cities and econonomic recovery.  My initial quote was in response to whether companies are going to require people to go back to the office.  I think companies in services industries will be fine with mostly remote workers on a go forward basis.  

Now if you want me to give you my take on commercial real estate and the values there, we can start another conversation.  I think you know where my head is from my posts.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 29, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> Not sure what you are talking about.  I never said anything about cities and econonomic recovery.  My initial quote was in response to whether companies are going to require people to go back to the office.  I think companies in services industries will be fine with mostly remote workers on a go forward basis.
> 
> Now if you want me to give you my take on commercial real estate and the values there, we can start another conversation.  I think you know where my head is from my posts.



I think it is going to be an uneven recovery. Winners and losers, as usual. It will take years if not forever for some individuals and businesses to recover while others are getting richer during Covid. I am in the lucky half.


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Aug 31, 2020)

__





						COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
					

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities.  Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.




					www.cdc.gov
				




*Comorbidities*
_Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities,_ 


 Click here to download. 

Bottomline: If a person is old or has underlying health problems, Covid can tip the scale against you.  But if you are healthy and young, Covid deaths are rare.  Just like pneumonia.  If you get pneumonia and are obese or old, you are more likely to die of pneumonia (or flu, for that matter).


----------



## MommaBear (Aug 31, 2020)

Too true, but with a mortality rate of 3.1%  and a morbidity rate of 30% (morbidity indicating ongoing post infection complications, duration obviously unknown).. If 80% of Americans need to get the disease to obtain herd immunity and 3% of that 80% die, that's 8 million dead.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 31, 2020)

MommaBear said:


> Too true, but with a mortality rate of 3.1%  and a morbidity rate of 30% (morbidity indicating ongoing post infection complications, duration obviously unknown).. If 80% of Americans need to get the disease to obtain herd immunity and 3% of that 80% die, that's 8 million dead.


parts of the world that did not close down, did not make masks mandatory, kept schools and restaurants open show that the numbers you mentioned are way off. Sweden's deaths are virtually zero currently, this suggests they are close to herd immunity. The total number of deaths is not 247,000 but about 50 times lower


----------



## Brett (Aug 31, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> parts of the world that did not close down, did not make masks mandatory, kept schools and restaurants open show that the numbers you mentioned are way off. Sweden's deaths are virtually zero currently, this suggests they are close to herd immunity. The total number of deaths is not 247,000 but about 50 times lower



*Sweden Shouldn’t Be America’s Pandemic Model*
*The Swedes aren’t close to reaching herd immunity. We need to continue to contain the virus spread.*

_*Wall Street Journal  *_*August 30, 2020*

*https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweden-shouldnt-be-americas-pandemic-model-11598822005*


----------



## rickandcindy23 (Aug 31, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I'm worried about the politicizing of our children's educations.


Yes, since my granddaughter in kindergarten hasn't been able to meet any of her classmates in person.  She is such a social girl; meanwhile, my other granddaughter is in pre-K at a Lutheran school, and she is truly enjoying her preschool experience.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 31, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> There is no law I know that states that the virus has to spread equally among neighboring countries (even those with identical measures) and that that's the only comparison that matters. Have you noticed that *none* of those "leading scientists" mentions the most obvious fact, that Sweden's number of deaths has been virtually zero for a month? I also have to point out that many scientists have a vested interest in Sweden's failure, Sweden's success would mean they have been wrong about a lot of things concerning this pandemic.
> 
> deaths/day Sweden
> 
> View attachment 25475



I agree. Not sure why people think countries near each other should perform similarly for Covid. Are USA, Canada and Mexico performing similarly?

In education, bordering countries in Scandinavia do not perform similarly. Apparently countries in Scandinavia have many differences.



			https://www.oecd.org/pisa/PISA-results_ENGLISH.png


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 31, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I agree. Not sure why people think countries near each other should perform similarly for Covid. Are USA, Canada and Mexico performing similarly?
> 
> In education, bordering countries in Scandinavia do not perform similarly. Apparently countries in Scandinavia have many differences.
> 
> ...


Exactly! In  Canada, the provinces have had a very similar approaches and they all locked down in March  yet the numbers are very different from one province to another.


----------



## DannyTS (Aug 31, 2020)

Brett said:


> *Sweden Shouldn’t Be America’s Pandemic Model*
> *The Swedes aren’t close to reaching herd immunity. We need to continue to contain the virus spread.*
> 
> _*Wall Street Journal  *_*August 30, 2020*
> ...


Maybe then you will explain to us why their numbers keep on going down if they did not reach herd immunity.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 31, 2020)

This is scary. I have never seen a video like this. I would worry the guy will come back and do something really bad.









						Anti-Masker Goes on Crazy Tirade at Alaskan Walmart — TMZ
					

An Alaskan who refused to wear a mask at his local Walmart didn't go quietly ... he left the building practically kicking and screaming -- and it's absolutely bonkers.




					apple.news


----------



## cman (Aug 31, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> This is scary. I have never seen a video like this. I would worry the guy will come back and do something really bad.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I've seen several videos like this. My guess is that in this case, it's not about ideology, it's a mental health issue.


----------



## TravelTime (Aug 31, 2020)

cman said:


> I've seen several videos like this. My guess is that in this case, it's not about ideology, it's a mental health issue.



That is what I was thinking too.


----------



## WVBaker (Sep 1, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> That is what I was thinking too.



"_Insanity - a perfectly rational adjustment to an insane world_."
R. D. Laing


----------



## MommaBear (Sep 1, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> parts of the world that did not close down, did not make masks mandatory, kept schools and restaurants open show that the numbers you mentioned are way off. Sweden's deaths are virtually zero currently, this suggests they are close to herd immunity. The total number of deaths is not 247,000 but about 50 times lower


Sweden is 7th in the world in deaths per million population. They've actually not done very well. They chose not to flatten the curve, so they look good now, but the overall picture isn't great


----------



## TravelTime (Sep 17, 2020)

Alzheimer’s patients are dying from the effects of isolation.

————

*Pandemic isolation has killed thousands of Alzheimer’s patients while families watch from afar*

If only Dan Goerke could hold his wife’s hand.

Maybe she would talk again. Maybe she would look at him and smile as she used to. Maybe she would eat and stop wasting away.

Since the pandemic began, Goerke’s wife, Denise — 63 years old and afflicted with Alzheimer’s disease — had declined dramatically. Left alone in her nursing home, she had lost 16 pounds, could not form the simplest words, no longer responded to the voices of her children.

In recent weeks, she had stopped recognizing even the man she loved.

Goerke, 61, could tell the isolation was killing his wife, and there was nothing he could do but watch. “Every day it gets a little worse,” he said. “We’ve lost months, maybe years of her already.”

Beyond the staggering U.S. deaths caused directly by the novel coronavirus, more than 134,200 people have died from Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia since March. That is 13,200 more U.S. deaths caused by dementia than expected, compared with previous years, according to an analysis of federal data by The Washington Post.....




			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/16/coronavirus-dementia-alzheimers-deaths/?arc404=true


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## Monykalyn (Sep 17, 2020)

DannyTS said:


> Maybe then you will explain to us why their numbers keep on going down if they did not reach herd immunity.


Well USA was under the "excess deaths" average since aug 23, negative on Aug 30 (LESS deaths than average) but the news isn't spouting that now are they?
Just fed up with March-covid thinking when it's SIX months later and people refuse to update their thinking in regards to public policy....


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## Brett (Sep 17, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Well USA was under the "excess deaths" average since aug 23, negative on Aug 30 (LESS deaths than average) but the news isn't spouting that now are they?
> Just fed up with March-covid thinking when it's SIX months later and people refuse to update their thinking in regards to public policy....



the news media is now "spouting" ....   herd _mentality_


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## PigsDad (Sep 17, 2020)

Brett said:


> the news media is now "spouting" ....   herd _mentality_


No, only one moron is saying that, AFAIK.

Kurt


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## Monykalyn (Sep 18, 2020)

Brett said:


> the news media is now "spouting" ....   herd _mentality_


I _think_ you are mostly joking, but there is a large element of truth there...If something doesn't fit the current narrative...thankfully more junk is finally be called out (that ridiculous "analysis" of 'cost; and 'cases' of Sturgis rally comes to mind where it got blasted from all sides)


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## rapmarks (Sep 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Alzheimer’s patients are dying from the effects of isolation.
> 
> ————
> 
> ...


I am in a lot of virtual caregiver groups, and I cannot tell you the grief the spouses are going through because of this situation.  Plus, i see deterioration in my husband because of the lack of socialization.  I am keeping him at home as long as I can.


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## rickandcindy23 (Sep 18, 2020)

The herd mentality was a misspeak, but I wish people would actually start thinking that way--toward herd immunity.  There are other costs to isolation and loss of income and lack of social activities than just the damage Covid can do.  

I believe my mother-in-law would be alive today, had she not felt such total isolation.  Her routine was disrupted, and she thrived on going to her hair dresser, doing her own shopping, getting her nails done, going to the Elks' Lodge for lunch 3-4 days a week and for baseball games.  She was active for a 92-year-old.  She was tired of watching Hallmark movies every single day.  

By the time she could go and get her hair done again, she was more tired and depression set in.  She told us she was really just shocked that the world went this way.  At 92, she had never seen anything like this.  It was (to her) more terrifying than WWII because she was old and felt she couldn't do anything about her situation.  When she was 16, she went to work in a saw mill during WWII.  She felt powerful.  She felt powerless during this virus.  

We were worried about her mood and talked to her daily and delivered her groceries every week, but we were cautious not to hug her or kiss her during our visits.  The last time we saw her, she gave us big hugs.  I know she was feeling her mortality.


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## Monykalyn (Sep 18, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Beyond the staggering U.S. deaths caused directly by the novel coronavirus, more than 134,200 people have died from Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia since March. That is 13,200 more U.S. deaths caused by dementia than expected, compared with previous years, according to an analysis of federal data by The Washington Post.....


"Many of the deaths are likely undiagnosed cases of coronavirus, experts say, while others are likely due to indirect effects from the pandemic — hospitals being overrun or care being delayed."  I dispute the "undiagnosed" claims of CV-there ARE still other causes of illness out there! But we now want to blame covid for EVERYTHING. And the BS line about hospitals overrun-the media is absolutely stuck and 100% convinced this is true-it is NOT. The hospitals that had harder hit areas had surge beds available-whether they USED them or not. ALL hospitals have ability to surge and a plan for it. Despite what the media wants the people to believe-surge capacity is used a lot more often than just with CV (hurricanes, major trauma events, tornados, and flu season)
But just this week - I had 3 people who had lived at home and were doing well prior to March admitted to long term rehab facility-all had depression, weight loss and increased falls that led to hip fractures. They are now much more at risk statistically to die within the next year. The families did what they could, but take away what gives you joy (holding grandkids, going out for meals, shopping with friends)...we never ever gave these folks a _choice_ if they prefer to die in isolation of loneliness or take a chance with a virus-that is NOT lethal to vast majority of population. Been saying that since this lockdown dragged past a couple months.
Thankfully the NH are starting to get the rapid testing equipment.  Hope that means visitors will follow soon. Most of my NH have started allowing limited capacity communal dining (halls rotate meals to keep distance available), and patio visits with all parties masked and limited number of family members, and have for past month-6 weeks. Already seeing an improvement in weights too.


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## Monykalyn (Sep 18, 2020)

rickandcindy23 said:


> I believe my mother-in-law would be alive today, had she not felt such total isolation


I know I've said this before but I am so sorry you and she had to go through this.  You aren't alone unfortunately. I've been attacked on these boards for saying we should allow families/patients to make this choice, NOT have it imposed upon them, and too look at the i_mpact as a whole _of lockdown etc.  Someone in their 80's+ has lived through more than this current situation and they may not have the 2 years it takes to be "safe" again. (Good GAwd have I come to despise the word "safe"  )


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## SueDonJ (Sep 18, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> "Many of the deaths are likely undiagnosed cases of coronavirus, experts say, while others are likely due to indirect effects from the pandemic — hospitals being overrun or care being delayed."  I dispute the "undiagnosed" claims of CV-there ARE still other causes of illness out there! But we now want to blame covid for EVERYTHING. And the BS line about hospitals overrun-the media is absolutely stuck and 100% convinced this is true-it is NOT. The hospitals that had harder hit areas had surge beds available-whether they USED them or not. ALL hospitals have ability to surge and a plan for it. Despite what the media wants the people to believe-surge capacity is used a lot more often than just with CV (hurricanes, major trauma events, tornados, and flu season) ...



I appreciate your viewpoint but feel a need to point out that the people I love who are being overworked directly on the front lines in caregiver positions, at Boston-area hospitals and nursing homes, have good reason to dispute what you claim so aggressively. As only one point of contention, "surge capacity" as far as the number of beds is useless if there is not a national plan in place during a nationwide pandemic to route staffing and supplies to hardest-hit areas in order to actually use those beds.


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## Cornell (Sep 18, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> I know I've said this before but I am so sorry you and she had to go through this.  You aren't alone unfortunately. I've been attacked on these boards for saying we should allow families/patients to make this choice, NOT have it imposed upon them, and too look at the i_mpact as a whole _of lockdown etc. Someone in their 80's+ has lived through more than this current situation and they may not have the 2 years it takes to be "safe" again. (Good GAwd have I come to despise the word "safe"  )


I'm going to speak to this.  My 87 YO mom lives in an assisted living facility.  She has mild dementia. We now 6 months into this and the "metrics" for her area are very good.  AT this point, my mother is allowed *ONE *single half hour visit per week--- In an space that is about as conducive for a visit as a prison visit.  There are all kinds of nonsensical rules attached too: for instance, my 17 YO daughter cannot visit (needs to be 18+ even though there are teenage workers at the facility).  Only two people allowed to visit at a time and they must be from the same household.  So my sister cannot visit w/her own daughter b/c they don't live together.  Additionally, the facility is banning visits from people who live in "hot states" .  Two of my sisters live in hot states so they can't visit my mom.  We are increasingly concerned that we won't be able to spend Thanksgiving w/my mother this year.  Family is all my mom has left.  We are discussing legal action w/an elder care attorney b/c this is ridiculous.  My mom pays $100,000 a year to live there....so this is a supposedly "great place".   Oh - and she still isn't allowed to have her hair done.  It's been 6 months since that has happened.  She deserves dignity.


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## bluehende (Sep 18, 2020)

To get to herd immunity we would need about 2 million to die.  Any volunteers?  And how long will that immunity last?  That herd may need to be thinned over and over again.


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## CPNY (Sep 18, 2020)

Cornell said:


> I'm going to speak to this.  My 87 YO mom lives in an assisted living facility.  She has mild dementia. We now 6 months into this and the "metrics" for her area are very good.  AT this point, my mother is allowed *ONE *single half hour visit per week--- In an space that is about as conducive for a visit as a prison visit.  There are all kinds of nonsensical rules attached too: for instance, my 17 YO daughter cannot visit (needs to be 18+ even though there are teenage workers at the facility).  Only two people allowed to visit at a time and they must be from the same household.  So my sister cannot visit w/her own daughter b/c they don't live together.  Additionally, the facility is banning visits from people who live in "hot states" .  Two of my sisters live in hot states so they can't visit my mom.  We are increasingly concerned that we won't be able to spend Thanksgiving w/my mother this year.  Family is all my mom has left.  We are discussing legal action w/an elder care attorney b/c this is ridiculous.  My mom pays $100,000 a year to live there....so this is a supposedly "great place".   Oh - and she still isn't allowed to have her hair done.  It's been 6 months since that has happened.  She deserves dignity.


That’s terrible I’m so sorry to hear this. You’re right, she deserves dignity and deserves to be around family.

While visiting my mother This weekend she said she was in need of a vacation this year. She’s 75, works full time (we force her too..... jk, she retired, got bored and then got a job working from home and enjoys it). For this reason I am risking taking my mother to Aruba or Bahamas for thanksgiving week. Since This is the alternating year my brothers are with their in-laws (blessed that our family is big these days), I thought it would be better to take her away and spend quality time with her than go to a house with 20+ people. We can socially distance on a beach or by a pool. She’s really excited. My brothers and I may have went a bit overboard in trying to protect her through quarantine it’s like we became over bearing parents.

take legal action and demand to be able to spend time with your mom. There aren’t many years left for any of us these days.


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## DannyTS (Sep 18, 2020)

bluehende said:


> To get to herd immunity we would need about 2 million to die.  Any volunteers?  And how long will that immunity last?  That herd may need to be thinned over and over again.


Not true


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## CPNY (Sep 18, 2020)

bluehende said:


> To get to herd immunity we would need about 2 million to die.  Any volunteers?  And how long will that immunity last?  That herd may need to be thinned over and over again.


How do we really know?? Is that based off current numbers assuming that only those who tested positive had the virus? How do we really know when it was in the community? Well, in NYC it was in the community WELL before March. Antibody testing is unreliable. My doctor just tested positive for antibodies again after months prior testing positive then multiple negative tests.

the testing, reporting, and media have made information disseminated inaccurate and inconsistent. Who really knows at this point. NYC May have already reached herd immunity


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## Brett (Sep 18, 2020)

bluehende said:


> To get to herd immunity we would need about 2 million to die.  Any volunteers?  And how long will that immunity last?  That herd may need to be thinned over and over again.



I think nursing homes were involuntarily subjected to herd immunity. 
I'm trying not to volunteer and take one for "herd"


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## CPNY (Sep 18, 2020)

Brett said:


> I think nursing homes were involuntarily subjected to herd immunity.
> I'm trying not to volunteer and take one for "herd"


Thanks to places like NY and NJ I agree


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## PigsDad (Sep 18, 2020)

bluehende said:


> To get to herd immunity we would need about *2 million* to die.  Any volunteers?  And how long will that immunity last?  That herd may need to be thinned over and over again.


Can you let us know how you came up with that number?

Kurt


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## Brett (Sep 18, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Thanks to places like NY and NJ I agree





PigsDad said:


> Can you let us know how you came up with that number?
> 
> Kurt




the thinning of the "herd"
Only the best and strongest survive for a more prosperous nation !






*https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88401*


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## PigsDad (Sep 18, 2020)

A whole lot of assumptions in that article.  And even with all of those assumptions, it doesn't come close to 2 million.

So if people can get re-infected, what good does a vaccine do?  With all these worst-case assumptions, seems like the end game is that we all going to die from Covid, right?    

Kurt


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## Monykalyn (Sep 18, 2020)

SueDonJ said:


> I appreciate your viewpoint but feel a need to point out that the people I love who are being overworked directly on the front lines in caregiver positions, at Boston-area hospitals and nursing homes, have good reason to dispute what you claim so aggressively. As only one point of contention, "surge capacity" as far as the number of beds is useless if there is not a national plan in place during a nationwide pandemic to route staffing and supplies to hardest-hit areas in order to actually use those beds.


Need for a national plan? Absolutely. But it is NOT true that every state/city/area was NYC like media wants to portray. Those hit hardest were still able to handle it-did NOT say it was easy or that couldn't have been done better. HOWEVER this continued BS about "not overrunning hospitals" or the "Virus is rampant and will KILL you NOW" has also got to stop as people are NOT seeking care or preventative care for MONTHS now. The toll of this will take years to sort out, and will likely be far more costly (in human lives and suffering) than what covid has done. This is coming from multiple experts who have predicted global food insecurity/starvation/diseases will all drastically increase. heck even prominent physicians here are saying they are very worried about measles and TB making a big impact. Every time yet another article says "hospitals were overrun" like it was common place everywhere someone will think "at least I didn't contribute to that" by forgoing care they needed.


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## tschwa2 (Sep 18, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> A whole lot of assumptions in that article.  And even with all of those assumptions, it doesn't come close to 2 million.
> 
> So if people can get re-infected, what good does a vaccine do?  With all these worst-case assumptions, seems like the end game is that we all going to die from Covid, right?
> 
> Kurt


well we get a new flu vaccine every year because of mutations.  It's a new virus and it will probably be 10+ years of research before we have a really good handle on it. Every week scientist have more data to go on.

within a year or so we might be back to closer to normal, but even with a relatively effective vaccine we won't be back to the old normal.


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## Monykalyn (Sep 18, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> A whole lot of assumptions in that article.  And even with all of those assumptions, it doesn't come close to 2 million.
> 
> So if people can get re-infected, what good does a vaccine do?  With all these worst-case assumptions, seems like the end game is that we all going to die from Covid, right?
> 
> Kurt


And a horrible obvious slant. Of COURSE we want herd immunity-whether through vaccine/natural etc that IS the end goal. To paint "herd immunity" as bad is willfully promoting an agenda. No one is advocating "let 'er rip" but let's face facts-in many places that has already happened, with vaccines it will now be easier to get to community level immunity. And to continue to insist on comparing sweden to ONLY other Nordic countries is also willfully cherry picking. Loss of credibility when you cannot see ALL aspects of something.


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## SueDonJ (Sep 18, 2020)

Monykalyn said:


> Need for a national plan? Absolutely. But it is NOT true that every state/city/area was NYC like media wants to portray. Those hit hardest were still able to handle it-did NOT say it was easy or that couldn't have been done better. HOWEVER this continued BS about "not overrunning hospitals" or the "Virus is rampant and will KILL you NOW" has also got to stop as people are NOT seeking care or preventative care for MONTHS now. The toll of this will take years to sort out, and will likely be far more costly (in human lives and suffering) than what covid has done. This is coming from multiple experts who have predicted global food insecurity/starvation/diseases will all drastically increase. heck even prominent physicians here are saying they are very worried about measles and TB making a big impact. Every time yet another article says "hospitals were overrun" like it was common place everywhere someone will think "at least I didn't contribute to that" by forgoing care they needed.



Nothing I said was meant to infer that I think every area is/was impacted to the same extent as the one with which I'm familiar. Whatever media you're watching/hearing that's telling you every state has been dealing with the exact same scenario, you might want to listen to something different. Here, the results of not having a national plan overseen at the federal level meant that when the supplies/staffing needed to be supplemented to cover the disaster-level emergency, not enough help was provided. Here, as much as it's acknowledged that the shutdown effects are hurting patients/residents in longterm care facilities, it's not been acknowledged at all that the caregivers are going to be dealing with PTSD issues for years to come. Here, hospital staff are being left to their own coping devices and let's be honest, no training or job experience in the last hundred years has prepared overworked and underpaid medical/support staff for the nightmare they've been facing every damned day since late February. Whatever you call, "handling it," I call being forced to shut off your brain and just do your job today so that the next shift can do theirs. Whatever damage you think is being done to people who have put off their own medical care for fear of contracting COVID, I think the damage being done to frontline caregivers is far worse because we're forcing them to forge on as if this is normal and they don't deserve aid coming to their rescue.

All of this is just so damned sad. If in hindsight we're learning that some areas of the country did not need the most extreme reaction, so be it. Far better to overreact than what has been an utterly disastrous under-reaction, beginning with ridiculing the science-based and commonsense directives in the name of some ridiculously politicized "personal freedom" crusade, continuing through forcing the individual states to compete against each other for necessary supplies, and resulting in the numbers now being counted - or discounted - based on whether states are red or blue.

"Put on a mask. Wash your hands. Realize that you can be a carrier and not show symptoms, so limit your group activities and travel only when necessary. Recognize that where the numbers dictate, we will have to shut down." If only we'd had a unified response based on science and compassion with our leaders acting as examples, rather than whatever this shitshow is that has brought us to the point where despite all the experts' warnings we allowed the virus to get out of control but we also allowed ourselves to be convinced that responding to it appropriately is an infringement on our civil liberties ... it's mind-numbingly infuriating.


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## WVBaker (Sep 18, 2020)

SueDonJ said:


> All of this is just so damned sad. If in hindsight we're learning that some areas of the country did not need the most extreme reaction, so be it. Far better to overreact than what has been an utterly disastrous under-reaction, beginning with ridiculing the science-based and commonsense directives in the name of some ridiculously politicized "personal freedom" crusade, continuing through forcing the individual states to compete against each other for necessary supplies, and resulting in the numbers now being counted - or discounted - based on whether states are red or blue.



That's quite the passionate, albeit I think a bit political, comment. Can you offer any proof as to the "necessary supplies" or would it be simply a personal indictment?


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## Luanne (Sep 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> That's quite the passionate, albeit I think a bit political, comment. Can you offer any proof as to the "necessary supplies" or would it be simply a personal indictment?


Since everyone seems to distrust the media these days you will probably not take this as "proof".  What type of proof would you accept?



			https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2020-04-07/states-compete-in-global-jungle-for-personal-protective-equipment-amid-coronavirus


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## WVBaker (Sep 18, 2020)

Luanne said:


> Since everyone seems to distrust the media these days you will probably not take this as "proof".  What type of proof would you accept?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2020-04-07/states-compete-in-global-jungle-for-personal-protective-equipment-amid-coronavirus



It's an interesting opinion piece by Andrew Soergel however, it's blatantly political and clearly leaning in one direction.

If possible, find direct, non-political and definitive proof of the accusations. If not, I think we can both agree it's nothing more than an attempt to push one's own agenda, regardless of that agenda.


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## Luanne (Sep 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> It's an interesting opinion piece by Andrew Soergel however, it's blatantly political and clearly leaning in one direction.
> 
> If possible, find direct, non-political and definitive proof of the accusations. If not, I think we can both agree it's nothing more than an attempt to push one's own agenda, regardless of that agenda.


I'll ask again, what would you consider a direct, non-politcal source for definitive proof.  And maybe I should ask you to provide this showing that this is just pushing one's own agenda.  In other words proof that this wasn't happening.  I remember hearing statements from our governor, among others, about how they were having to compete for equipment.


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## WVBaker (Sep 18, 2020)

Luanne said:


> I'll ask again, what would you consider a direct, non-politcal source for definitive proof.  And maybe I should ask you to provide this showing that this is just pushing one's own agenda.  In other words proof that this wasn't happening.  I remember hearing statements from our governor, among others, about how they were having to compete for equipment.




Perhaps any documents indicating the reason for the delivery of those, "necessary supplies", was in fact, as the writer claimed, "based on whether states are red or blue". I wasn't the one claiming the reason for the deliveries, which I think we can both agree is simply, personal opinion and nothing more. Which of course is fine however, don't present it as fact. We all have our opinions which should clearly be presented and noted as just that, opinions. 

Keep in mind, speculation is nothing more than speculation and not facts.

I should also add, by claiming any decision was based on, "whether states are red or blue", is purely political and as such, perhaps it's best that we not drift into that arena any further. Be my guest if you choose to do so though.


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## SueDonJ (Sep 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> That's quite the passionate, albeit I think a bit political, comment. Can you offer any proof as to the "necessary supplies" or would it be simply a personal indictment?



Several governors shared their own experiences with trying to gather PPE, ventilators, etc with one or two even mentioning that they resorted to eBay. If you're more comfortable with questioning the media outlets who told those stories or with the governors' honesty than you are with questioning why they may have been put in that position, there's nothing I or anyone else could say to convince you that maybe your agenda needs some examining.

Aside from that I'm relying on the reports from my loved ones who have been on the front lines: my son who is a nursing home administrator and had to reach desperation before the state was finally able to muster National Guard resources on a limited (but admittedly much-welcomed) basis, my daughter-in-law who is a nurse and was re-assigned to a COVID floor in a major Boston-area hospital, my sister who is a nurse assigned to a COVID floor in a major hospital in Boston's Longwood medical district and says nothing in her 40+years career could have prepared her for the experience, my son-in-law who works for a medical staffing firm and says in his office they all know that nothing in the firm's history has required this level of engagement, my daughter who's a teacher and like all the others had to be thrown into the virtual learning environment with literally no advance knowledge ... I also have several friends in the medical field who've related some of their frustrations and sadness.

Granted, I live where there is a very large concentration of medical facilities including major hospitals and research centers so it's more common than not to know people who are on the front lines. Whether it's believable or not, none of the people I know in those positions are thinking in terms of politics; they're just trying to keep their heads on straight dealing with the nightmare they're living. And although you can probably read my political leanings, and I certainly rant and rave about them on twitter, I don't talk with them in terms of politics. They don't need to hear this crap - their lives are already impacted far too much by it.


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## SueDonJ (Sep 18, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Perhaps any documents indicating the reason for the delivery of those, "necessary supplies", was in fact, as the writer claimed, "based on whether states are red or blue". I wasn't the one claiming the reason for the deliveries, which I think we can both agree is simply, personal opinion and nothing more. Which of course is fine however, don't present it as fact. We all have our opinions which should clearly be presented and noted as just that, opinions.
> 
> Keep in mind, speculation is nothing more than speculation and not facts.
> 
> I should also add, by claiming any decision was based on, "whether states are red or blue", is purely political and as such, perhaps it's best that we not drift into that arena any further. Be my guest if you choose to do so though.



I didn't say that supply deliveries were based on whether states are red or blue. I said the numbers are being counted - or discounted - according to whether states are red or blue. That happened just the other day at the top level of the federal government so if you care to verify it, the quote is easily found with a simple google search.


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## bluehende (Sep 18, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> Can you let us know how you came up with that number?
> 
> Kurt


The very good modeling from the university of cambridge.


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## bluehende (Sep 18, 2020)

CPNY said:


> How do we really know?? Is that based off current numbers assuming that only those who tested positive had the virus? How do we really know when it was in the community? Well, in NYC it was in the community WELL before March. Antibody testing is unreliable. My doctor just tested positive for antibodies again after months prior testing positive then multiple negative tests.
> 
> the testing, reporting, and media have made information disseminated inaccurate and inconsistent. Who really knows at this point. NYC May have already reached herd immunity


So you volunteer to be the next death in NYC.  If they are completely immune you are safe right.

And again all the herders ignore the fact we have no idea how long it will last.  Other corona virus immunity does not last long.  Pretty risky bet that it will be different this time.

PS   Herd immunity is a term that was coined because vaccines get there.  There has never been a disease eliminated by herd immunity without one.


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## bluehende (Sep 18, 2020)

PigsDad said:


> A whole lot of assumptions in that article.  And even with all of those assumptions, it doesn't come close to 2 million.
> 
> So if people can get re-infected, what good does a vaccine do?  With all these worst-case assumptions, seems like the end game is that we all going to die from Covid, right?
> 
> Kurt


Maybe it's like the flu shot.  They give them every year.


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## CPNY (Sep 18, 2020)

bluehende said:


> *So you volunteer to be the next death in NYC. *



That’s just a terrible thing to say to someone............. especially since I had it and experienced severe effects for months. You should be ashamed of yourself. Very very sad. Telling someone who suffered pretty badly with the virus “to be the next death” to prove your point is pretty low.


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## davidvel (Sep 18, 2020)

Brett said:


> the thinning of the "herd"
> Only the best and strongest survive for a more prosperous nation !
> 
> 
> ...


The .65% (actually now believed to be more like .4-.5%) is the OVERALL presumed case acquired death rate.  But that includes all ages, including the most vulnerable that die at much higher rates than the overall number. 

What if those 213 million going forward are mostly very young with significantly lower death rates (as the vulnerable continue to shelter), maybe closer to .1%?  Then the total deaths would be about 220,000 - 250,000.


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## DeniseM (Sep 18, 2020)

This thread has been closed - before you start another controversial thread, think twice, and then don't do it.


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