# Article: Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown



## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown
No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its economic health.
By The Editorial Board
Updated March 19, 2020 7:40 pm ET

Financial markets paused their slide Thursday, but no one should think this rolling economic calamity is over. If this government-ordered shutdown continues for much more than another week or two,* the human cost of job losses and bankruptcies will exceed what most Americans imagine*. This won’t be popular to read in some quarters, but federal and state officials need to start adjusting their anti-virus strategy now to avoid an economic recession that will dwarf the harm from 2008-2009.

The vast social-distancing project of the last 10 days or so has been necessary and has done much good. Warnings about large gatherings of more than 10 people and limiting access to nursing homes will save lives. The public has received a crucial education in hygiene and disease prevention, and even young people may get the message. With any luck, this behavior change will reduce the coronavirus spread enough that our hospitals won’t be overwhelmed with patients. Anthony Fauci, Scott Gottlieb and other disease experts are buying crucial time for government and private industry to marshal resources against the virus.

Yet the costs of this national shutdown are growing by the hour, and we don’t mean federal spending. We mean *a tsunami of economic destruction* that will cause tens of millions to lose their jobs as commerce and production simply cease. Many large companies can withstand a few weeks without revenue but that isn’t true of millions of small and mid-sized firms.

Even cash-rich businesses operate on a thin margin and can bleed through reserves in a month. First they will lay off employees and then out of necessity they will shut down. Another month like this week and the *layoffs will be measured in millions of people*...

*If GDP seems abstract, consider the human cost.* Think about the entrepreneur who has invested his life in his Memphis ribs joint only to see his customers vanish in a week. Or the retail chain of 30 stores that employs hundreds but sees no sales and must shut its doors. 

Or the recent graduate with $20,000 in student-loan debt—taken on with the encouragement of politicians—who finds herself laid off from her first job. Perhaps she can return home and live with her parents, but what if they’re laid off too? How do you measure the human cost of these crushed dreams, lives upended, or *mental-health damage* that result from the orders of federal and state governments?...

Read more here:








						Opinion | Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown
					

No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its economic health.




					www.wsj.com


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## bluehende (Mar 20, 2020)

The article is behind a paywall.  I would like to read it as it is not of my viewpoint.  The WSJ editorial board is well thought of.  This is that decision that has no good answers.  How do you balance modeled deaths vs modeled financial loss and it's accompanying health consequences.  You have to err on the human life side as financial loss can be mitigated.  This is a decision I do not want to be in the room making it.  An absolute free market system says the chips fall where they may and demand will spur a lot of new business' that arise from the ashes.  There should certainly be a cost benefit done for these decisions and I will assume which way that scale tips is very specific to ones own situation.  I will say that CNBC did an interview with a former airline CEO that was demanding a bailout for the airlines in the name of national security.  I remember this exact same person railing against the TARP bailout. How do you do nothing when the modeled deaths are in the millions under that scenario.  Especially when Italy showed us how real this is.  We also have to remember that Italy did shut down so the higher deaths only delayed the same draconian economic results.  Waiting until we are sure the models are correct is the same as doing nothing.  I do not believe the entirety of federal, state, and local officials with better info than we have  made the same decision without good reason.


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 20, 2020)

Placed in wrong thread.


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

This is written by the Editorial Board. It is not an opinion piece by one author. This is different.


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

bluehende said:


> The article is behind a paywall.  I would like to read it as it is not of my viewpoint.  The WSJ editorial board is well thought of.  This is that decision that has no good answers.  How do you balance modeled deaths vs modeled financial loss and it's accompanying health consequences.  You have to err on the human life side as financial loss can be mitigated.  This is a decision I do not want to be in the room making it.  An absolute free market system says the chips fall where they may and demand will spur a lot of new business' that arise from the ashes.  There should certainly be a cost benefit done for these decisions and I will assume which way that scale tips is very specific to ones own situation.  I will say that CNBC did an interview with a former airline CEO that was demanding a bailout for the airlines in the name of national security.  I remember this exact same person railing against the TARP bailout. How do you do nothing when the modeled deaths are in the millions under that scenario.  Especially when Italy showed us how real this is.  We also have to remember that Italy did shut down so the higher deaths only delayed the same draconian economic results.  Waiting until we are sure the models are correct is the same as doing nothing.  I do not believe the entirety of federal, state, and local officials with better info than we have  made the same decision without good reason.



I can send you the full article through a private message. They are not saying to do nothing. They are just saying that the shutdown needs to be more balanced. The article concludes by saying: America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown.


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## x3 skier (Mar 20, 2020)

I read the article earlier and agree wholeheartedly with the approach. Sooner or later there will be a recognition of the costs of keeping someone like me who is approaching 80 alive needs to be weighed against the use of those resources for the larger part of society.  I have a DNR and a living will that if it came to it would allow a ventilator or other valuable resources to be used for someone younger or more likely to have a longer and fuller life than I would have if treated.

Cheers


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## Karen G (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I can send you the full article through a private message. They are not saying to do nothing. They are just saying that the shutdown needs to be more balanced. The article concludes by saying: America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown.


And what did they say that strategy should be? It's very easy to criticize a plan but a lot harder to come up with something better.


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

Karen G said:


> And what did they say that strategy should be? It's very easy to criticize a plan but a lot harder to come up with something better.



Yes, I agree. They did not offer a solution other than saying: "America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown."

In their defense, I do not think the article was overly critical. I think it was more pragmatic and they tried to display compassion for small businesses and people who will be laid off. I think this was a needed article because it is not popular right now to think about how the economic costs could be as great, if not greater, than the actual costs of the virus.


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## Brett (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Yes, I agree. They did not offer a solution other than saying: "America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown."
> 
> In their defense, I do not think the article was overly critical. I think it was more pragmatic and they tried to display compassion for small businesses and people who will be laid off. I think this was a needed article because it is not popular right now to think about how the economic costs could be as great, if not greater, than the actual costs of the virus.



yes,  written with a business viewpoint like most WSJ opinions.
Maybe after this virus pandemic crisis is over the national response will be different,  perhaps more of a "Darwinian" approach similar to what Mexico is doing - no lockdowns or extraordinary precautions taken.


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

Brett said:


> yes,  written with a business viewpoint like most WSJ opinions.
> Maybe after this virus pandemic crisis is over the national response will be different,  perhaps more of a "Darwinian" approach similar to what Mexico is doing - no lockdowns or extraordinary precautions taken.



I doubt our country will take such a Darwinian approach. However, there must be a better way to handle a pandemic than shut down all businesses. Work at home makes sense for some companies but it destroys many businesses who can't offer this.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 20, 2020)

Brett said:


> yes,  written with a business viewpoint like most WSJ opinions.
> Maybe after this virus pandemic crisis is over the national response will be different,  perhaps more of a "Darwinian" approach similar to what Mexico is doing - no lockdowns or extraordinary precautions taken.


I can't believe Mexico's approach is going to end well.....
But, it will serve as a useful comparison. 
I do agree there is much to be learned from this and I hope we take an unbiased approach to achieving that learning.



> ..from TravelTime:
> I doubt our country will take such a Darwinian approach. However, there must be a better way to handle a pandemic than shut down all businesses. Work at home makes sense for some companies but it destroys many businesses who can't offer this.



Your point makes me wonder if you believe there is a country that has the correct (best) approach at this time.  Do you see a country with this approach?


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## Panina (Mar 20, 2020)

Many lessons will be learned.  Right now we are in the center of the moving  virus.  Easy to say what is right or wrong.  History, looking back will make it clearer what was done right and wrong.  

All I know is most of my family are in the locations that are hardest hit and I rather lose everything I own then lose them.  My financials will hurt lots as will theirs after this passes.  If anyone dies that will hurt so much more.


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I can't believe Mexico's approach is going to end well.....
> But, it will serve as a useful comparison.
> I do agree there is much to be learned from this and I hope we take an unbiased approach to achieving that learning.
> 
> ...



Germany has a low death rate. I am not sure why but it might be worth looking into what they are doing. In general, I think this is unprecedented and no one knows what to do so they are just throwing darts at the dart board. After this is over, I hope an evidence-based approach will be examined for the future.


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## bluehende (Mar 20, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I can't believe Mexico's approach is going to end well.....
> But, it will serve as a useful comparison.
> I do agree there is much to be learned from this and I hope we take an unbiased approach to achieving that learning.
> 
> ...


  I would guess Korea and Singapore.  Both relied on early detection and isolation of those infected and it worked quite well.  Alas not preparing ahead of time precluded us from that tract.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Mar 20, 2020)

In the great economic contraction that is here and getting worse, remember. 
The factories are still there.
The planes are still there.
The farms are still there.

The real question is will the people to run them still be there?

What will happen under the economic disaster is that the old owner class will get eliminated as owners (but not as people).


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## pedro47 (Mar 20, 2020)

Today is Friday evening and I just looked at the Fort Lauderdale webcam and for first time in the past thirty (30) years  there is not one cruise ship with a passengers on board. All the cruise ships are just sitting in port. A very Strange site. IMO.

Even after 9/11 cruise ships were cruising to the Carribean, in Europe, Asia and the Mediterranean.

How much is this Coronavirus costing the cruise industry, the Cities of Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, the airline industry, taxis companies, auto rental agencies, the hotels industry and restaurants just in these  three (3) cities and now included the loss revenue all around world.


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## Brett (Mar 20, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I would guess Korea and Singapore.  Both relied on early detection and isolation of those infected and it worked quite well.  Alas not preparing ahead of time precluded us from that tract.



yes, early detection is important.  It will interesting to compare country responses to this pandemic after it's "over"


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## WinniWoman (Mar 20, 2020)

Can you copy and paste this article here?


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Can you copy and paste this article here?



TUG rules say we can't copy and past an entire article on TUG. I can PM it to you.


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## Talent312 (Mar 20, 2020)

The medicine may be worse than the illness and merely the source of pain + suffering.
But sometimes, the medicine just tastes awful, but contains the cure.
I'll leave to those who are more knowledgeable than I to call this one.
.


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 20, 2020)

Early detection coupled with tracking, communication and swift reaction is important:









						Singapore Was Ready for Covid-19—Other Countries, Take Note
					

After SARS and H1N1, Singapore built a robust system for tracking and containing epidemics. South Korea, Taiwan, and others did too—here's what they learned.




					www.wired.com
				




That’s a decent article that explains why Singapore, Taiwan and a few other countries were able to flatten their curve quickly. 

We are WAY past that now unfortunately, and the pain we will experience is going to be much worse as a result, both in human and in economic loss.

That said, it’s possible we are overreacting because the predictive models we are using cannot account for a novel virus. We are seeing some scary modeling that says upwards of 60-70% of the population could be infected - but here’s the thing - the current numbers available don’t come anywhere remotely close to supporting this. I’ve seen some articles that argue that the decisions we are making are based upon modeling that is very immature and chock full of unproven assumptions. Many of the decisions we are seeing for shutting entire states down are based upon these models.

That said, we do know that social distancing is really the only tool we have to flatten the curve. There’s a part of me that wonders aloud if we should actually adopt a much more draconian 30 day ‘shelter in place’ quarantine. Deploy the national guard, lock down the entire country - snuff this out now. 

We can tolerate a 30 day pause. Give everyone payment holidays for the time period - no mortgage payments or utility payments or rent or loan payments of any kind - then send out the checks to every American adult and grant loans to businesses that are eventually forgiven if they keep paying their employees - to help tide everyone over.

Practicing moderation as this article basically argues - may actually work out much worse over the long term - as doing so may result in repeated outbreaks and repeated shutdowns over time - which will quickly become intolerable especially from an economic perspective. 

Of course this is just me thinking out loud. There are no easy answers - that much is certain.


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## WinniWoman (Mar 20, 2020)

Excellent and true article. This is so scary.


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

The New York Times also has an article on the impact of the economic crisis. Their solution is for the government to pay companies to pay employees until this subsides. Not sure how realistic this solution is. I would be interested in hearing other Tuggers' opinions.

-----

Put the Economy on Life Support
To limit mass unemployment, the government needs to provide companies with the money they are temporarily unable to earn.
By The Editorial Board

The federal government has a chance to save millions of Americans from unemployment as the coronavirus spreads, but policymakers must act decisively.

Employers, facing a revenue drought, are firing workers at a record pace. Preliminary data indicates that more people filed for unemployment benefits last week than in any previous week in the nation’s history, shattering a record set back in 1982.

The mass layoffs are depriving families of income and, what is perhaps more important in the middle of a pandemic, leaving many without health insurance, too.

The necessary solution is a grand bargain: The federal government provides the money that companies are unable to earn, and companies use the money to keep workers on the payroll...

Read more here:








						Opinion | How to Avoid Complete Economic Destruction (Published 2020)
					

To limit mass unemployment, the government needs to provide companies with the money they are temporarily unable to earn.




					www.nytimes.com


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## x3 skier (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> The New York Times also has an article on the impact of the economic crisis. Their solution is for the government to pay companies to pay employees until this subsides. Not sure how realistic this solution is. I would be interested in hearing other Tuggers' opinions.
> 
> -----
> 
> ...




Bernie Sanders for the win!

I didn’t read the actual ariticle, just the intro.

Actually, that seems sort of contrary to the guidance. Most layoffs seems to be a result of closings because of the need to observe Social Distancing. Is the NYT suggesting to keep people working as if there was no need to do that and fill up factories and restaurants and stores so everyone gets infected?  Unless it is intended to be unemployment insurance by another name where the payments go thru the company instead of the states which seems like a needless complication.

Cheers


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Bernie Sanders for the win!
> 
> Cheers



I do not get it.


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## pedro47 (Mar 20, 2020)

This is political. LOL


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> This is political. LOL



I do not think this is political. We are not discussing any political leaders or parties. This is simply a discussion of an article about the economic situation.

Update: Yes. someone mentioned Bernie Sanders and thus made this political.


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Bernie Sanders for the win!
> 
> I didn’t read the actual ariticle, just the intro.
> 
> ...



Most business closings are due to social distancing and/or Shelter at Home restrictions. This is killing businesses especially small businesses. Most experts are now recognizing that this will be devastating to small businesses and the economy.


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## x3 skier (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I do not get it.



I added some additional comments. The original was my first reaction was it sounded a bit like Democratic Socialism as advocated by Sen. Sanders. 

Cheers


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 20, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Bernie Sanders for the win!
> 
> I didn’t read the actual ariticle, just the intro.
> 
> ...



No, basically what the article is suggesting is to pay employers to keep their employees on the payroll during the shutdown that would otherwise be laid off due to the shutdown. That way the employees would keep their benefits and keep their jobs intact. This is what is now being termed as “employment insurance” as opposed to “unemployment insurance.”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Brett (Mar 20, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Bernie Sanders for the win!
> 
> I didn’t read the actual ariticle, just the intro.
> Actually, that seems sort of contrary to the guidance. Most layoffs seems to be a result of closings because of the need to observe Social Distancing. Is the NYT suggesting to keep people working as if there was no need to do that and fill up factories and restaurants and stores so everyone gets infected?  Unless it is intended to be unemployment insurance by another name where the payments go thru the company instead of the states which seems like a needless complication.
> ...



so you think Bernie Sanders favors business and not individuals in the "relief package" ?

Oh ,,, you didn't actually read the article ...   gotta be  communistic "socialism"


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> I added some additional comments. The original was my first reaction was it sounded a bit like Democratic Socialism as advocated by Sen. Sanders.
> 
> Cheers



Be careful with mentioning politicians as this makes the thread political and it could be closed.


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## x3 skier (Mar 20, 2020)

Sorry. If my comments are deleted by the Mods, I will in the future refrain from mentioning any politician. 

Thanks TravelTime for the observation 

Cheers


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## Brett (Mar 20, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> Sorry.
> 
> Cheers




apology accepted


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 20, 2020)

Brett said:


> so you think Bernie Sanders favors business and not individuals in the "relief package" ?
> 
> Oh ,,, you didn't actually read the article ... gotta be communistic "socialism"



I’d say we are more debating different economic principles than anything political. Keynesian vs Monetarist for example. We are absolutely choosing a Keynesian approach here - when the private sector pulls back - the public sector steps in with temporary spending to prevent a major economic contraction. 


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## TravelTime (Mar 20, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I’d say we are more debating different economic principles than anything political. Keynesian vs Monetarist for example. We are absolutely choosing a Keynesian approach here - when the private sector pulls back - the public sector steps in with temporary spending to prevent a major economic contraction.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Yes I agree. In general, this thread seems very reasonable even if some politicians have been mentioned.


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## Panina (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Yes I agree. In general, this thread seems very reasonable even if some politicians have been mentioned.


Whenever we start mentioning politicians, reference parties, etc, there are some that cannot stay reasonable and the thread gets closed.  Keeping it more general without referencing or attacking politicians, parties, etc is the way to go.


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## Rolltydr (Mar 20, 2020)

pedro47 said:


> Today is Friday evening and I just looked at the Fort Lauderdale webcam and for first time in the past thirty (30) years there is not one cruise ship with a passengers on board. All the cruise ships are just sitting in port. A very Strange site. IMO.
> 
> Even after 9/11 cruise ships were cruising to the Carribean, in Europe, Asia and the Mediterranean.
> 
> How much is this Coronavirus costing the cruise industry, the Cities of Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, the airline industry, taxis companies, auto rental agencies, the hotels industry and restaurants just in these three (3) cities and now included the loss revenue all around world.



A couple better questions may be, 1) how did so many people on cruise ships get the virus, 2) how did so many people with the virus get on cruise ships? Yes, it’s a shame what is/will happen to the cruise companies and their employees as a result of this, but they also have some responsibility with how lax they were. I don’t know the answers but this seems to happen over and over on cruise ships. Somehow, they need to identify their vulnerabilities and come up with a plan to mitigate them. I worked on a catastrophe response team so I know that is easier said than done, but it has to be done or you’ll always be reacting to the catastrophe instead of executing your plan.


Harry


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## T-Dot-Traveller (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> .......The article concludes by saying:.....( insert almost any country)......urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown.


  Hi TravelTime - I slightly changed your quoted from the article  - because IMO this applies to almost every country worldwide **.

Most of us drive with car insurance that is jurisdiction required - imbedded in those policies is,uninsured motorist
coverage - in case we get critically injured by someone driving without insurance . generally you or I cannot cancel that subsection - and it would be foolish anyway  as the cost is such a small amount .

Unfortunately governments worldwide did “ cancel or never thought about it “
Hospital Ventilators cost $30,000 each  / a literal penny compared to the trillions that this will cost the world .

None of us - (or our leaders ) , are willing to say or accept the following :
I would rather let people drown in their own fluids in their lungs due to Pneumonia from Covid 19
- so that restaurants and bars can stay open.

So : it is what it is ...

*************
**{ possible exceptions - S. Korea & Singapore }


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## bbodb1 (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I do not get it.


Sanders is currently advocating a government provided monthly stipend to every U.S citizen...
I believe that is the connection.

It is a different way to address a situation where we need to turn the switch off for a bit (so to speak) without harming businesses and the economy. 

Certainly worthy of consideration...


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## alwysonvac (Mar 20, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Germany has a low death rate. I am not sure why but it might be worth looking into what they are doing. In general, I think this is unprecedented and no one knows what to do so they are just throwing darts at the dart board. After this is over, I hope an evidence-based approach will be examined for the future.



From Forbes (link)

“..._.There is one major difference between Germany's Covid-19 demographic and that of the European hot zone of Italy. *The first is that the onslaught of Covid-19 arrived in the teeth of Europe's ski season, so that many Germans who initially contracted the virus did so in Italy, which is why*—*for the moment—70% of all reported cases in Germany remain among the young, or more broadly, among the not-elderly, between the ages of 20 and 50.*

The corollaries to extrapolate are that most (not all) people who ski are of average or above-average fitness, regardless of age, and that, in order to go skiing safely, there is a decided, natural fitness barrier that does exist as the skiers get older. Muscularly and in basic orthopedic terms, it's just not possible for every 70-to-90-year-old to ski. Put another way, this initial group of 'selected,' relatively fit patients in Germany were in generally decent shape, and have to a large extent survived Covid-19. 

Which brings us to the primary and most striking difference between the German patient population and that of the rest of the world: The mortality rate. Of the 14,000 cases to date, just 31 Germans have died. At this writing the most enviable German Covid-19 mortality rate stands at 0.2%, or about 40 times less than that of Italy's mortality rate. That’s a big difference. ...”_

_According to German medical professionals, and no less a medical statistician than the President of the Robert Koch Institut, Lothar Wieler, on Friday morning, March 20, *that it was simply Germany's good fortune that it simply beganamong the young. His expectation is that the infection rate will spike, heavily, as will the mortality rate, before Germany is able to flatten it. "We are at the beginning of an epidemic," he said Friday morning in Berlin. "We are all in a crisis, the size of which I never imagined. We will need as many intensive care beds as possible. I expect that the hospitals will be prepared*."_


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## b2bailey (Mar 21, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> I can't believe Mexico's approach is going to end well.....
> But, it will serve as a useful comparison.
> I do agree there is much to be learned from this and I hope we take an unbiased approach to achieving that learning.
> 
> ...



I'm actually one in favor of the hard decision the President of Mexico has made. If you consider the U.S. economic stimulus package being proposed that is meant to 'prop up ' our economy -- Mexico does not have the ability to offer such assistance to their hardest hit. In Mexico, heroic measures could save a few lives today while mass numbers die from starvation in future months. I applaud the wisdom and courage of the man.


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## b2bailey (Mar 21, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> No, basically what the article is suggesting is to pay employers to keep their employees on the payroll during the shutdown that would otherwise be laid off due to the shutdown. That way the employees would keep their benefits and keep their jobs intact. This is what is now being termed as “employment insurance” as opposed to “unemployment insurance.”
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The two benefits of paying employers, as I see it, would be 1. Pay would remain the same (Although now I 'm thinking there would need to be a maximum salary amount) 2. They would keep their health insurance.

The current plan to send checks to people -- some who don't really need it , and that would include me -- does not target the real issue. It's like they said: "Let's just throw some money at the problem and hope it helps.

(I realize I mixed Apple's and oranges above.)


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## goaliedave (Mar 21, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Yes, I agree. They did not offer a solution other than saying: "America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown."
> 
> In their defense, I do not think the article was overly critical. I think it was more pragmatic and they tried to display compassion for small businesses and people who will be laid off. I think this was a needed article because it is not popular right now to think about how the economic costs could be as great, if not greater, than the actual costs of the virus.


USA had a pandemic strategy, and an office of experts funded by govt, but it was defunded and cancelled recently lol.

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## goaliedave (Mar 21, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I would guess Korea and Singapore. Both relied on early detection and isolation of those infected and it worked quite well. Alas not preparing ahead of time precluded us from that tract.


Yup

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## Brett (Mar 21, 2020)

goaliedave said:


> USA had a pandemic strategy, and an office of experts funded by govt, but it was defunded and cancelled recently lol.



yes, the experts fired in 2018,  offices disbanded .....


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## bbodb1 (Mar 21, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I’d say we are more debating different economic principles than anything political. Keynesian vs Monetarist for example. *We are absolutely choosing a Keynesian approach here - when the private sector pulls back - the public sector steps in with temporary spending to prevent a major economic contraction*.



The bolded portion of the quote sums up (rather nicely I might add) the plan we need to have in place. 
Health and safety must come first - but in achieving that goal we cannot cripple the economy (which is also needed to survive).


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## Rolltydr (Mar 21, 2020)

Plain talk from an expert:



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/20/emily-landon-coronavirus/
		



Harry


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 21, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> The bolded portion of the quote sums up (rather nicely I might add) the plan we need to have in place.
> Health and safety must come first - but in achieving that goal we cannot cripple the economy (which is also needed to survive).



Yes, the inherent problem, and AFAIK a problem that Keynes never dealt with, is that these days we are all Keynesians all the time - meaning we run deficits constantly. The Keynesian approach requires that governments run surpluses when the private sector is booming, so that when the private sector goes into recession, the government can deficit spend and eat up the aforementioned surpluses. We already have 21+ trillion in national debt - which presents a real problem when adopting a Keynesian approach. 

Watch out for negative interest rates coming soon to the US - which is the only way to finance runaway deficit spending on social programs - just like the EU has been doing now for many years via the ECB. People look at the EU countries and the generous social programs and say we should be doing the same thing - but the reality is that the EU runs negative interest rates primarily because the social programs are not affordable nor sustainable for the governments if they have to actually pay interest on the deficits/debts. It’s a good gig when you control the ECB outright - meaning the ECB has no real independence from the political establishment like our Fed has - but it’s a huge experiment that many economists think is going to fail over in the EU - because politicians aren’t economists, yet the politicians ultimately have a good deal of control over the EU money supply. 

We certainly do live in interesting times. 


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## WVBaker (Mar 21, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I do not get it.



Insanity destroys reason, but not wit.


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## dioxide45 (Mar 21, 2020)

goaliedave said:


> USA had a pandemic strategy, and an office of experts funded by govt, but it was defunded and cancelled recently lol.
> 
> Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk





Brett said:


> yes, the experts fired in 2018,  offices disbanded .....


Interesting that this actually came out of the The Washington Post.


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/


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## Rolltydr (Mar 21, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> Interesting that this actually came out of the The Washington Post.
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/



That is an op-ed. This is an op-ed that also was in the Washington Post last week. 



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/nsc-pandemic-office-trump-closed/2020/03/13/a70de09c-6491-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html
		


Since they printed dueling op-eds, the news side of the paper which is completely separate from the opinion side, did it’s own research and printed this article.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/20/was-white-house-office-global-pandemics-eliminated/
		


Whatever was done, I think it’s safe to say the result has not been an improvement.


Harry


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## dioxide45 (Mar 21, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Whatever was done, I think it’s safe to say the result has not been an improvement.


We technically will never know since the prior structure was never put to the test since it seems it only existed between 2014 and 2018. Would we be better today if the consolidation hadn't happened. We won't really know. If COVIC-19 had happened in 2012, the same questions would be getting asked of the prior administration. It is also safe to point out that the piece put together by the "new side" isn't necessarily void of opinion.


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## Rolltydr (Mar 22, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> We technically will never know since the prior structure was never put to the test since it seems it only existed between 2014 and 2018. Would we be better today if the consolidation hadn't happened. We won't really know. If COVIC-19 had happened in 2012, the same questions would be getting asked of the prior administration. It is also safe to point out that the piece put together by the "new side" isn't necessarily void of opinion.



Can you point those out to me, please? The writer quotes opinions on booth sides of the issue. I do not see his opinion anywhere in the piece. Someone stating facts that you choose not to believe doesn’t make them an opinion. They’re still facts. He very fairly documents both sides of the issue and purposely did not draw a conclusion as to whether folding the old office into a new structure was the right thing to do or a mistake. If you see something else in that article, I would suggest you try to read it from a neutral point of view.


Harry


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## x3 skier (Mar 22, 2020)

One thing about the USA is we have a plethora of experts.  An example is the number of “talking heads” that appear on the tube or in print or the internet after any major unexpected event.

Whether the pandemic experts that were in the White House office before they were disbanded/absorbed/fired or whatever is the correct term (no opinion on what happened) would have been more capable than the others currently handling things from the White House, FEMA, NIH, CDC, etc. is a question that cannot be proven. Opinions, certainly, but not anything factual.

I suspect this will be the subject of many After Action analyses.

Cheers


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## Brett (Mar 22, 2020)

x3 skier said:


> One thing about the USA is we have a plethora of experts.  An example is the number of “talking heads” that appear on the tube or in print or the internet after any major unexpected event.
> 
> Whether the pandemic experts that were in the White House office before they were disbanded/absorbed/fired or whatever is the correct term (no opinion on what happened) would have been more capable than the others currently handling things from the White House, FEMA, NIH, CDC, etc. is a question that cannot be proven. Opinions, certainly, but not anything factual.
> 
> ...



yes, most certainly this pandemic will be subject to many "after action" reviews and assessments


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## Rolltydr (Mar 22, 2020)

Brett said:


> yes, most certainly this pandemic will be subject to many "after action" reviews and assessments



I would certainly hope so!


Harry


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## pymadore (Mar 28, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown
> No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its economic health.
> By The Editorial Board
> Updated March 19, 2020 7:40 pm ET
> ...


Bottom line: human lives are worth more than money. Please, please understand this!


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## Panina (Mar 28, 2020)

pymadore said:


> Bottom line: human lives are worth more than money. Please, please understand this!


Personally I agree.  

My question to others if you knew you would definitely lose a close family member such as a spouse, partner, parent, child, grandchild,  if all business went back to normal, would you still feel the same way?   If I am fortunate  enough that all my loved ones live through this, I know how painful it will for other families that lose their loved ones.

I am not minimizing “the human cost of job losses and bankruptcies will exceed what most Americans imagine_”, _I realize the Horrors of that too.   We can just handle one choice at a time and as the effects of the decisions happen, keep handling each problem the best we can to help all those in need.


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## pianodinosaur (Mar 28, 2020)

Honor your mother and father.


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## am1 (Mar 28, 2020)

How much money to end children hunger?  Sadly we know the cure but still every so many seconds a child dies.


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## Rolltydr (Mar 28, 2020)

am1 said:


> How much money to end children hunger? Sadly we know the cure but still every so many seconds a child dies.



Personally, I’m in favor of spending enough money to do that, too. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, a majority of our elected representatives don’t feel that is a crisis they should try and alleviate. They did feel that way about the coronavirus. We have to take what we can get, I guess.


Harry


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## TravelTime (Mar 28, 2020)

Panina said:


> Personally I agree.
> 
> My question to others if you knew you would definitely lose a close family member such as a spouse, partner, parent, child, grandchild,  if all business went back to normal, would you still feel the same way?   If I am fortunate  enough that all my loved ones live through this, I know how painful it will for other families that lose their loved ones.
> 
> I am not minimizing “the human cost of job losses and bankruptcies will exceed what most Americans imagine_”, _I realize the Horrors of that too.   We can just handle one choice at a time and as the effects of the decisions happen, keep handling each problem the best we can to help all those in need.



I am the OP of the article on this thread. I did not intend for this to be a discussion of life vs money. I was hoping for a more nuanced discussion. Personally, I agree that human life is more valuable than money. I do not want any of my loved ones to die. Let me clarify. The question for me is whether the projections of death are accurate or over estimated. Whether there will be more deaths, illness, mental health problems, alcoholism, drug use, suicides, domestic violence and other social ills from the shutdowns and resulting poverty. Is a miserable life on earth better or worse than dying? How long can we go on with a non-functioning economy? Realistically, how long can we shelter in place as a nation? How many lives are being destroyed by lay offs and bankruptciess? What will be the long term consequences of the coronavirus crisis? These are just questions to consider. I do not think it is so black and white. I do not think it is a matter of let’s either shut down the economy or we will kills millions of people. I think there is a gray area here that it is taboo to consider. Most people are making this a life or death situation. The media is not helping. They are sensationalizing this and publishing worst case scenarios. The role of public health officials is to share worst case scenarios. I am optimistic that this will not be as bad as projected. Call me naive.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Mar 28, 2020)

We don't know. That is the ultimate bottom line. There is no baseline to judge by. Even the 1918 flu was in a world with still more that 50% people the people involved in agriculture. Now is 1% or less. We are making history. Not happy history, but history none the less. . .


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## WVBaker (Mar 28, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I am the OP of the article on this thread. I did not intend for this to be a discussion of life vs money. I was hoping for a more nuanced discussion. Personally, I agree that human life is more valuable than money. I do not want any of my loved ones to die. Let me clarify. The question for me is whether the projections of death are accurate or over estimated. Whether there will be more deaths, illness, mental health problems, alcoholism, drug use, suicides, domestic violence and other social ills from the shutdowns and resulting poverty. Is a miserable life on earth better or worse than dying? How long can we go on with a non-functioning economy? Realistically, how long can we shelter in place as a nation? How many lives are being destroyed by lay offs and bankruptciess? What will be the long term consequences of the coronavirus crisis? These are just questions to consider. I do not think it is so black and white. I do not think it is a matter of let’s either shut down the economy or we will kills millions of people. I think there is a gray area here that it is taboo to consider. Most people are making this a life or death situation. The media is not helping. They are sensationalizing this and publishing worst case scenarios. The role of public health officials is to share worst case scenarios. I am optimistic that this will not be as bad as projected. Call me naive.



Optimism....is neither weak nor naive. It can be tough and pure and earned just as clearly as any brooding existential despair. A naive dream is extremely powerful.


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## travelhound (Mar 28, 2020)

I think it’s good we have had some time to prepare and plan - but this can’t go on for long or more people will die overall.  Being older we are in a higher risk group but I am willing to chance a shorter life so that future generations are not impoverished.


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## Panina (Mar 28, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I am the OP of the article on this thread. I did not intend for this to be a discussion of life vs money. I was hoping for a more nuanced discussion. Personally, I agree that human life is more valuable than money. I do not want any of my loved ones to die. Let me clarify. The question for me is whether the projections of death are accurate or over estimated. Whether there will be more deaths, illness, mental health problems, alcoholism, drug use, suicides, domestic violence and other social ills from the shutdowns and resulting poverty. Is a miserable life on earth better or worse than dying? How long can we go on with a non-functioning economy? Realistically, how long can we shelter in place as a nation? How many lives are being destroyed by lay offs and bankruptciess? What will be the long term consequences of the coronavirus crisis? These are just questions to consider. I do not think it is so black and white. I do not think it is a matter of let’s either shut down the economy or we will kills millions of people. I think there is a gray area here that it is taboo to consider. Most people are making this a life or death situation. The media is not helping. They are sensationalizing this and publishing worst case scenarios. The role of public health officials is to share worst case scenarios. I am optimistic that this will not be as bad as projected. Call me naive.


I know you are the op and my post was not actually directed to you.  You have very valid points.  You are right when you say it is not so black or white.  As you I am optimistic that this will not be as bad as projected, so others will view me as naive too.

Being so much is in the gray zone, the unknown, I just took it to the bare minimum, life or death.  We really don’t know the right answers.  No one does.  All the predictions fluctuate so wildly that they all have to be questioned.  There are no concrete answers.

I just see the medical system so overwhelmed and imo without the shutdowns I believe the medical system would collapse and the economy would tank just like it has.  I don’t see either choice being better for the economy.

With that said I am prepared to pay more taxes after this is over to help those that need it and will be more generous with donations and do whatever I can do to make it better for others.  

There are no clear answers. Our thoughts are opinions at best even though many others want to claim them as facts.  Just because one quotes a  projection from reputable sources, it still is not fact.  It is a guesstimate at best as we are now in unknown territory.


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## Rolltydr (Mar 28, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> I am the OP of the article on this thread. I did not intend for this to be a discussion of life vs money. I was hoping for a more nuanced discussion. Personally, I agree that human life is more valuable than money. I do not want any of my loved ones to die. Let me clarify. The question for me is whether the projections of death are accurate or over estimated. Whether there will be more deaths, illness, mental health problems, alcoholism, drug use, suicides, domestic violence and other social ills from the shutdowns and resulting poverty. Is a miserable life on earth better or worse than dying? How long can we go on with a non-functioning economy? Realistically, how long can we shelter in place as a nation? How many lives are being destroyed by lay offs and bankruptciess? What will be the long term consequences of the coronavirus crisis? These are just questions to consider. I do not think it is so black and white. I do not think it is a matter of let’s either shut down the economy or we will kills millions of people. I think there is a gray area here that it is taboo to consider. Most people are making this a life or death situation. The media is not helping. They are sensationalizing this and publishing worst case scenarios. The role of public health officials is to share worst case scenarios. I am optimistic that this will not be as bad as projected. Call me naive.


Obviously, we won’t know if the projections are accurate until this is over. We’re still on the front end of this pandemic, not the back end. It is going to get worse before it gets better. So, there’s no way to know how many will die. The medical experts are doing their best to give accurate projections based on the information they have and various scenarios measuring the progress, or lack thereof, in fighting the spread of the virus. Right now, we aren’t seeing a lot of success and the projections reflect that. Hopefully, in the end, you’ll be correct, but things will have to change significantly and quickly for that to happen.


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 28, 2020)

pymadore said:


> Bottom line: human lives are worth more than money. Please, please understand this!



I think the point that most are missing is that this a false choice. It’s presented as an either/or when the reality is it is both/and. We are not firing on all cylinders to get people back to work that actually can go back to work based upon real scientific evidence. Cuomo spoke at some length about this exact approach early this week. 

We are almost universally focused on testing for infection and preventative measures, meanwhile we are dealing with a virus that has an incredible transmission rate. 50% of those who catch this virus are largely asymptomatic or only have minor symptoms, 30% experience a flu-like illness and 20% end up requiring some type of hospitalization. 

There’s already a COVID-19 antibodies test available however there is no focus on ramping up what is a simple at home test that can tell people if they already have had COVID-19, have acquired immunity, and are no longer contagious. These people can return to work tomorrow, as there is little to no risk in doing so since they are no longer contagious. There is most likely already a significant and steadily growing portion of our population that falls into this bracket already given how transmissible COVID-19 is. 

We don’t have to keep the entire economy shut down if we take a more nuanced approach like this. We just aren’t solutioning this problem using all available options and resources at our collective disposal. We need a healthy mix of both preventative and restorative measures at work simultaneously. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Panina (Mar 28, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I think the point that most are missing is that this a false choice. It’s presented as an either/or when the reality is it is both/and. We are not firing on all cylinders to get people back to work that actually can go back to work based upon real scientific evidence. Cuomo spoke at some length about this exact approach early this week.
> 
> We are almost universally focused on testing for infection and preventative measures, meanwhile we are dealing with a virus that has an incredible transmission rate. 50% of those who catch this virus are largely asymptomatic or only have minor symptoms, 30% experience a flu-like illness and 20% end up requiring some type of hospitalization.
> 
> ...


Yes  an antibodies test would change the what can be done.  Until that is available widely nothing has changed.


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## Rolltydr (Mar 28, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I think the point that most are missing is that this a false choice. It’s presented as an either/or when the reality is it is both/and. We are not firing on all cylinders to get people back to work that actually can go back to work based upon real scientific evidence. Cuomo spoke at some length about this exact approach early this week.
> 
> We are almost universally focused on testing for infection and preventative measures, meanwhile we are dealing with a virus that has an incredible transmission rate. 50% of those who catch this virus are largely asymptomatic or only have minor symptoms, 30% experience a flu-like illness and 20% end up requiring some type of hospitalization.
> 
> ...



I mostly agree with you. But, the reason we are focused on testing and preventative measures is because we did not have a sufficient plan for how to handle a pandemic. I’m not making a judgment about who is at fault. There’s more than enough blame to go around. But, fundamentally, not being prepared and having a plan that could be executed from the early stages, left us in the position of reacting to events. We should have been executing a step by step plan that had been thoughtfully created based on historical data, then rehearsed, reviewed, and revised. Those are the basic steps of catastrophe planning. I have 20 years of experience in the field and that was the first thing I was taught. It’s easy to get complacent when something doesn’t happen for 10, 20, 30 years or more. But, if you don’t continue to plan, review, revise (including restocking/upgrading critical equipment), something like this will happen. You won’t be prepared, and the cost will be measured in loss of life, as well as, severe economic damage. 


Harry


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 28, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> I mostly agree with you. But, the reason we are focused on testing and preventative measures is because we did not have a sufficient plan for how to handle a pandemic. I’m not making a judgment about who is at fault. There’s more than enough blame to go around. But, fundamentally, not being prepared and having a plan that could be executed from the early stages, left us in the position of reacting to events. We should have been executing a step by step plan that had been thoughtfully created based on historical data, then rehearsed, reviewed, and revised. Those are the basic steps of catastrophe planning. I have 20 years of experience in the field and that was the first thing I was taught. It’s easy to get complacent when something doesn’t happen for 10, 20, 30 years or more. But, if you don’t continue to plan, review, revise (including restocking/upgrading critical equipment), something like this will happen. You won’t be prepared, and the cost will be measured in loss of life, as well as, severe economic damage.
> 
> 
> Harry



I’ve done BCP/DR plans for roughly 20 years as well, though admittedly within the IT sector since that is my career path. 

The reason we need to simultaneously be focused on restorative measures is precisely because we failed to focus on preventative measures when it would have paid the biggest dividends. Our patient zero occurred at almost the exact same time as South Korea, but look at their curve compared to ours - because they reacted quickly, ramped up massive testing coupled with strict quarantine and tracing. 






So, this choice for us is no longer an option. We are now left with mass social distancing as we ramp up testing capacity. Any mass quarantine will need to last for 8-10 weeks to significantly blunt the curve like South Korea has done - and we have waited long enough that even this option and length of time may not actually work well enough unfortunately. So we may need to promote mass social distancing for those most at risk for three months or more. 

If we leave our economy shut down for an entire quarter - we will inevitably experience a depression, an order of magnitude greater than the Great Depression - or what is now being called the Greater Depression in the missives I’m reading on a pretty much daily basis. I’m a finance and economics geek by education. The stuff I’m reading right now is unprecedented, and the law of unintended consequences will apply more broadly than most can imagine if we stay on pause for a long period of time. This is why it is critical that we focus on both/and solutions. As I’ve said on other forums, we can do this - we have the capacity and the talent to do both.

To be 100% clear - I don’t want ANY loss of life - I’m NOT arguing that we have to choose between money and life. I believe to the core of my being that we can choose both simultaneously using a sophisticated scientifically driven approach. I think we are selling ourselves very short by accepting anything less from our leaders and ourselves.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Rolltydr (Mar 28, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I’ve done BCP/DR plans for roughly 20 years as well, though admittedly within the IT sector since that is my career path.
> 
> The reason we need to simultaneously be focused on restorative measures is precisely because we failed to focus on preventative measures when it would have paid the biggest dividends. Our patient zero occurred at almost the exact same time as South Korea, but look at their curve compared to ours - because they reacted quickly, ramped up massive testing coupled with strict quarantine and tracing.
> 
> ...



Totally agree with you on this post. However, it will take leadership that put politics aside, on both sides of the aisle, to step up and make hard choices that may not play well to their base. We saw that this past week from both sides. What will we see this week? And, I’m sorry, but you can’t divorce this from politics! Our political leaders are the ones who have to make these decisions. 


Harry


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## Rolltydr (Mar 28, 2020)

Brett said:


> testing and recognizing the problem at the beginning is important
> unfortunately top US government leaders and a certain cable news TV show did not believe there was a problem ..... until it became a pandemic



Agree 100%.


Harry


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## dioxide45 (Mar 28, 2020)

Brett said:


> testing and recognizing the problem at the beginning is important
> unfortunately top US government leaders and a certain cable news TV show did not believe there was a problem .....  until it became a pandemic


Certain state leaders dismissed it too.


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## bbodb1 (Mar 28, 2020)

pianodinosaur said:


> Honor your mother and father.


...but they need to eat too....


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## Brett (Mar 28, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> Certain state leaders dismissed it too.



yes,  state and federal leaders .......   so who is to blame 
or maybe the virus is like the weather .....  nothing you can do about it,   just hunker down and hope for the best


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## bluehende (Mar 28, 2020)

I will state again that we cannot ignore the economic impact of this virus no matter what.  It is not a choice between the economy humming and more die or less die and we destroy the economy.  This virus was going to have a huge impact on the economy no matter what.  Imagine the reaction and fear when the dead start piling up and people realize anyone or any business can give it to them.  Does anyone think that people would be going about their everyday business humming a Disney tune with millions dying around them.  It was not the government that shut down the economy.  It was the virus.  This economy was going to shut down whether by government intervention or by fear and panic and to be honest I am not sure which scenario hurts the economy more.


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## CO skier (Mar 28, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Does anyone think that people would be going about their everyday business humming a Disney tune with millions dying around them.  It was not the government that shut down the economy.  It was the virus.  This economy was going to shut down whether by government intervention or by fear and panic and to be honest I am not sure which scenario hurts the economy more.


We may soon know the answer.  Neither the virus nor the government shut down the Swedish economy, and they have not shut down their borders.  A compare-and-contrast will be easy for the Monday morning quarterbacks when this is all over comparing the authoritarian communist China approach, to the Laissez-faire Sweden approach, to the Keystone Cops approach of the good ole USA.


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## goaliedave (Mar 28, 2020)

Brett said:


> yes, state and federal leaders ....... so who is to blame
> or maybe the virus is like the weather ..... nothing you can do about it, just hunker down and hope for the best


So sad to watch USA feds and states/cities argue... NY today claimed POTUS declared war with interstate travel restrictions idea. Meanwhile in Canada today, similar domestic restrictions put in place no issue. Gotta suck it up for 2 weeks at least.

Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk


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## bluehende (Mar 28, 2020)

CO skier said:


> We may soon know the answer.  Neither the virus nor the government shut down the Swedish economy, and they have not shut down their borders.  A compare-and-contrast will be easy for the Monday morning quarterbacks when this is all over comparing the authoritarian communist China approach, to the Laissez-faire Sweden approach, to the Keystone Cops approach of the good ole USA.




Maybe not.  Looks like they are a couple weeks behind us.











						Sweden Bans Groups Larger Than 50 In Its First Major Coronavirus Crackdown
					

The previous ban was for groups of 500. Unlike its neighbors, Sweden has kept schools, restaurants, bars and businesses open. Reports of massive after-ski parties have shocked other Scandinavians.




					www.npr.org
				




the country's Public Health Agency has issued a series of recommendations. Anyone with symptoms, as well as those over 70, are advised to stay home. People who are able to work from home are encouraged to do so, and authorities recommend against unnecessary travel both inside and outside the country.

And this about the economy which was the premise of my post.  This is also a good article on their culture too.









						Could the Swedish lifestyle help fight coronavirus?
					

Swedes are used to living alone, following rules and championing innovation. How much will these social norms help during the coronavirus crisis?




					www.bbc.com
				







Although keen to stress that coronavirus is still “dealing a really hard blow” to the economy, with bigger levels of layoffs than during the financial crisis,


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## CO skier (Mar 28, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Maybe not.  Looks like they are a couple weeks behind us.


How can any country, at this point in the worldwide exponential infection curve, be behind any other country with international airports?


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## CO skier (Mar 29, 2020)

bluehende said:


> the country's Public Health Agency has issued a series of recommendations. Anyone with symptoms, as well as those over 70, are advised to stay home. People who are able to work from home are encouraged to do so, and authorities recommend against unnecessary travel both inside and outside the country.


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## bluehende (Mar 29, 2020)

CO skier said:


> How can any country, at this point in the worldwide exponential infection curve, be behind any other country with international airports?


  Weren't we talking about country reaction


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## CO skier (Mar 29, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Weren't we talking about country reaction


I thought we were discussing the "bizarro world" opinions of country/world economic shutdowns.


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## Roger830 (Mar 29, 2020)

Here's an interesting graph when Italy's death count was 8458.
My age group 70+ is 84% of total
The age group 60+ is 95% of total

What kind of life will we have if the economy is destroyed to save some seniors that are a burden on the retirement and medical care systems?









						Italy: COVID deaths by age group 2022 | Statista
					

The distribution of COVID deaths varies by age. People aged 80-89 are the most affected in Italy. Figures are updated weekly.




					www.statista.com


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

CO skier said:


> We may soon know the answer. Neither the virus nor the government shut down the Swedish economy, and they have not shut down their borders. A compare-and-contrast will be easy for the Monday morning quarterbacks when this is all over comparing the authoritarian communist China approach, to the Laissez-faire Sweden approach, to the Keystone Cops approach of the good ole USA.



I believe Mexico has made basically the same choice as Sweden. Take it as it comes, let God sort it out, however you want to phrase it. 

I have no doubt during the aftermath we will litigate a plethora of scenarios with 20/20 hindsight as to how to better manage the next pandemic. And then in typical human fashion, given these events rarely happen, as the generations that experience such events and make the adaptations die off, we will become lax about spending time, effort and money on things that have no immediate or near term value. Such is the human condition IME. Just like we did this time given the reality of the Spanish flu pandemic 100 years ago. 

To some extent this all feels like one of those answers I’ve given when asked about marriage or having children. You are never really ready until you do it - no matter how much you prepare - and then you somehow figure out how to make it work real time when faced with inevitable adversities that life presents.


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

CO skier said:


> How can any country, at this point in the worldwide exponential infection curve, be behind any other country with international airports?



Because viruses don’t spread across the globe with the same speed and intensity into all regions at the same time, so therefore the outbreaks occur at different times in different places, as the chart below shows. Not every country reacts the same way either, and so some countries that have reacted quickly and with intention have blunted their curves (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, etc). As you can see from this chart - we are going to be worse than Italy ten days out from now - when we reach their point on the x axis:







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## WVBaker (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> Here's an interesting graph when Italy's death count was 8458.
> My age group 70+ is 84% of total
> The age group 60+ is 95% of total
> 
> ...



Just so we understand, seniors are a "burden" on the retirement and medical care systems? At just what age does someone become a "burden"?


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## Roger830 (Mar 29, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Just so we understand, seniors are a "burden" on the retirement and medical care systems? At just what age does someone become a "burden"?



Obviously there is no specific age, I talking about seniors as a group. Individually it's probably a function of one's assets and health. 

SS, medicare, state pensions are underfunded. Now massive deficit spending could lead to runaway inflation.


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## WVBaker (Mar 29, 2020)

So you're basing one's value on their "assets and health"? If they must rely on any form of assistance, government or otherwise, they're being a burden?


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## bbodb1 (Mar 29, 2020)

"Burden" is a very pejorative word.  
But it is correct in the sense the government has obligations it is supposed to fulfill to this group.  
Perhaps obligation might be a better word?  Just a thought...


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## Roger830 (Mar 29, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> So you're basing one's value on their "assets and health"? If they must rely on any form of assistance, government or otherwise, they're being a burden?



Right now in NYC health care is being rationed because of the burden seniors on putting on the system. If you want to use a different word, it's ok with me.

My 52 and 60 year old sister in law and her husband have corona, she's recovering nicely. He developed symptoms later and is doing fine. No burden.


----------



## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> Right now in NYC health care is being rationed because of the burden seniors on putting on the system. If you want to use a different word, it's ok with me.
> 
> My 52 and 60 year old sister in law and her husband have corona, she's recovering nicely. He developed symptoms later and is doing fine. No burden.



I think I get what you are saying. In Italy this type of healthcare rationing is now in full force for the 20% that require hospitalization - I’m reading anecdotal evidence that anyone over 60 years of age no longer received ventilation and is simply left to die so that younger more healthy patients have more access to ventilators. Difficult choices to say the least - but if we have to choose - save the younger patients seems to be the consensus. NYC will quickly be faced with the same decision points probably within ten days if the estimates are accurate. 

Thoughts and prayers for your sister in law and husband - glad to hear they are both recovering and coping well to date. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> "Burden" is a very pejorative word.
> But it is correct in the sense the government has obligations it is supposed to fulfill to this group.
> Perhaps obligation might be a better word? Just a thought...



It has long been know that the majority of healthcare dollars are spent on life saving and end of life care for the elderly. This came up back when Obamacare was passed and referenced as the “death panels” by certain media outlets - which was really just a reference to encouraging advance decision making with respect to end of life decisions and corresponding care costs.

I caught Michael Olsterholm on a recent Joe Rogan podcast regarding coronavirus and when Joe asked him about the high death rates for the elderly population, his answer was that statistically speaking the elderly already have the highest likelihood of death - apart from anything related to new viruses such as the coronavirus. This population segment also has the highest percentage of underlying health conditions which increase the likelihood of death for any ARDS type inducing virus such as coronavirus. It is what it is.


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## geekette (Mar 29, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> Just so we understand, seniors are a "burden" on the retirement and medical care systems? At just what age does someone become a "burden"?


Chilling, right?  don't worry, I'm sure they will lower that bar to include 20 year old disabled folks.  As soon as you can't produce profit for someone, now or in the future, bye bye.   profits over people.

gross.


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## geekette (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> Right now in NYC health care is being rationed because of the burden seniors on putting on the system. If you want to use a different word, it's ok with me.
> 
> My 52 and 60 year old sister in law and her husband have corona, she's recovering nicely. He developed symptoms later and is doing fine. No burden.


BS.

Care is being rationed because of lack of preparation for Sick People. Of all ages.


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## goaliedave (Mar 29, 2020)

geekette said:


> BS.
> 
> Care is being rationed because of lack of preparation for Sick People. Of all ages.


Agree with everything you post. Happy to know a large number like you in USA who see the issues clearly and don't get caught up in meaningless discussions of details. 

Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk


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## bluehende (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> Obviously there is no specific age, I talking about seniors as a group. Individually it's probably a function of one's assets and health.
> 
> SS, medicare, state pensions are underfunded. Now massive deficit spending could lead to runaway inflation.


  You know the old adage......stop digging.


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## Karen G (Mar 29, 2020)

Continuing to harp on what was done or not done in the past and by whom it was done or not done serves no one. Our focus should be on what can be done going forward and trying to work together to get through this unprecedented time.


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## bluehende (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> Right now in NYC health care is being rationed because of the burden seniors on putting on the system. If you want to use a different word, it's ok with me.
> 
> My 52 and 60 year old sister in law and her husband have corona, she's recovering nicely. He developed symptoms later and is doing fine. No burden.


  You gave death numbers and are now talking about burden on health system.  Look at case data and you will see that the young have more cases than the old.  The young are certainly costing us a lot to heal from this.  At least us old fogeys have the decency to die.


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## WVBaker (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> Right now in NYC health care is being rationed because of the burden seniors on putting on the system. If you want to use a different word, it's ok with me.
> 
> My 52 and 60 year old sister in law and her husband have corona, she's recovering nicely. He developed symptoms later and is doing fine. No burden.



You know what, I don't even know where to begin with your attitude and outlook. I can only offer you mine.

I think it's our duty to advocate for a system that supports them. Be it healthcare, infrastructure, housing or finance. A person can only do so much to meet their later in life needs without help. The way we treat our elders is a reflection of a society and its values. While it may vary from culture to culture and person to person, it is something that can always be improved, especially as the population share of elderly persons grows year after year. 

I'm reminded of something that Pearl S. Buck said.

_"Our society must make it right and possible for old people not to fear the young or be deserted by them, for the test of a civilization is the way that it cares for its helpless members."_

Oh yea, keep this one very important fact in mind. Your grandparents choices in life resulted in YOU! Be grateful. Look after each other.


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## goaliedave (Mar 29, 2020)

Karen G said:


> Continuing to harp on what was done or not done in the past and by whom it was done or not done serves no one. Our focus should be on what can be done going forward and trying to work together to get through this unprecedented time.


Yes. Self-isolation and physical distancing is the thing to concentrate on. Long term, study what Canada is doing and learn from it.

Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk


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## Luanne (Mar 29, 2020)

goaliedave said:


> Yes. Self-isolation and physical distancing is the thing to concentrate on. Long term, study what Canada is doing and learn from it.
> 
> Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk


Love Canada. But you guys aren't doing it perfectly either.

https://nationalpost.com/news/covid...lic-health-officials-urging-social-distancing


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## goaliedave (Mar 29, 2020)

.
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk


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## Luanne (Mar 29, 2020)

goaliedave said:


> .
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not sure if it's just my computer, but the headers are cut off so the data on your chart doesn't mean anything.


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## Karen G (Mar 29, 2020)

*Canada* is considerably *larger* than the *U.S.*, in sheer land mass, but *has* about one tenth the human *population*, some 36,983,180 compared to the US at 376,031,546. The entire *population* of *Canada* is about the same as can be found in the state of California.


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## TravelTime (Mar 29, 2020)

Human suffering is increasing rapidly. Given its collective impact, this virus could be the worst thing we will see in our lifetimes.

**********
*Coronavirus Threatens to Overwhelm Cities’ Social Safety Net *
*Jump in demand at food banks, soup kitchens; number of callers to crisis hotlines surges*
By Douglas Belkin and Kate King | Photographs by Sarah Blesener for The Wall Street Journal
March 29, 2020 5:30 am ET

The economic shutdown caused by the coronavirus is testing America’s safety net, and the people holding it aloft are feeling the strain.

In Seattle, among the first U.S. cities where the virus was detected, a flood of people have flocked to homeless shelters, slammed suicide hotlines and packed food pantries. People at the center of the rush say that the wave is only beginning to build and that already they are struggling to meet demand.

Calls to Crisis Connections, the Seattle area’s hotlines for suicide, domestic abuse and substance abuse, have jumped 25% to about 25,000 a month since the virus was first reported, said Executive Director Allie Franklin. She said she worked two graveyard shifts in recent days because there weren’t enough volunteers or staff to man the phones.

Many of the callers have never reached out for help, Ms. Franklin said. Some are isolated, unable to go to church or work or other community events and are feeling depressed. Those with addictions call to find out which treatment facilities or AA meetings are open. And laid-off workers with little savings are calling to ask where food banks are and how they work.

“We have people entering the social safety net who have never used it before,” she said. “What if this goes on for months?”









						Coronavirus Threatens to Overwhelm Cities’ Social Safety Net
					

The economic shutdown caused by the coronavirus is testing America’s safety net, and the people holding it aloft are feeling the strain.




					www.wsj.com


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

Canada most likely has certain demographic and population density advantages that will benefit your country when compared to the US, but Canada is also a couple weeks behind the US in so far as the death rates are concerned along the x axis so you are simply earlier in the curve than the US:











Canada is currently tracking along the exact same trajectory as the U.K.:






I pray your country can blunt the curve just like everyone else - but the data tells the story - Canada is about a week behind the U.K. at present. Your healthcare system will most likely also be overwhelmed by the coronavirus within the next ten days. The coronavirus doesn’t discriminate between multi-payer vs single payer healthcare systems - just ask Italy - which has a single payer system, along with most of the EU countries. 

The only countries that have done well to date are Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam (Japan appears to be doing well but the consensus is that they have a data reporting problem). They didn’t do well because of superior healthcare systems - they did well because they adopted a combination of aggressive widespread testing, social distancing, quarantining and contact tracing before the outbreaks took hold.

I pray whatever Canada is doing produces the results that we see from South Korea - blunting the curve and saving many lives in the process. 


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## geekette (Mar 29, 2020)

Karen G said:


> *Canada* is considerably *larger* than the *U.S.*, in sheer land mass, but *has* about one tenth the human *population*, some 36,983,180 compared to the US at 376,031,546. The entire *population* of *Canada* is about the same as can be found in the state of California.


I would like to say thank you for distilling this to make it relatable.


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## DrQ (Mar 29, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Human suffering is increasing rapidly. Given its collective impact, this virus could be the worst thing we will see in our lifetimes.
> 
> **********
> *Coronavirus Threatens to Overwhelm Cities’ Social Safety Net *
> ...


We may consider contributing extra to our local food banks.


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## Roger830 (Mar 29, 2020)

bluehende said:


> You gave death numbers and are now talking about burden on health system.  Look at case data and you will see that the young have more cases than the old.  The young are certainly costing us a lot to heal from this.  At least us old fogeys have the decency to die.



if you know the case numbers, publish them, nobody else has that knowledge.

My sister in law was tested and 3 days later the results came back positive. Her husband came down with the same symptoms, asked his doctor if he should be tested and he told him no, just assume that he is positive and act accordingly. That small sample indicates the actual cases are twice what has been reported. I'm assuming that it's higher. There's evidence that half infected don't have any symptoms.


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## am1 (Mar 29, 2020)

Canada is larger with a tenth of the population but most of it is concentrated along the US border.


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## DrQ (Mar 29, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> The only countries that have done well to date are Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam (Japan appears to be doing well but the consensus is that they have a data reporting problem). They didn’t do well because of superior healthcare systems - they did well because they adopted a combination of *aggressive widespread testing, social distancing, quarantining and contact tracing* before the outbreaks took hold.


In the US, until we can get the aggressive testing in place, the only tools we have are social distancing and widespread quarantining. Back in my quality improvement days ... you can't improve a process until you can measure it. Right now, I would SWAG that for every positive test we have, there are 500 in the community that have not been measured.


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## Roger830 (Mar 29, 2020)

WVBaker said:


> You know what, I don't even know where to begin with your attitude and outlook.



You're misunderstanding what I'm saying.
When I said that seniors are a burden to the system, I'm just describing the situation as I see it, not that they shouldn't receive what they are entitled to.


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> if you know the case numbers, publish them, nobody else has that knowledge.
> 
> My sister in law was tested and 3 days later the results came back positive. Her husband came down with the same symptoms, asked his doctor if he should be tested and he told him no, just assume that he is positive and act accordingly. That small sample indicates the actual cases are twice what has been reported. I'm assuming that it's higher. There's evidence that half infected don't have any symptoms.



I’m not sure exactly how we are defining case numbers, but I’m assuming we are defining the number of actual reported cases. If so, this is a dashboard that is pulling data from the Johns Hopkins database. The JH dashboard for laptops/desktops is here:





__





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
				




The mobile device version is here:





__





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					www.arcgis.com
				




This mobile device live dashboard, pulling from the same data source, I find to be most useful to easily look at to answer case related questions:









						Coronavirus Dashboard
					

Live coronavirus dashboard tracker. See data, maps, social media trends, and learn about prevention measures.




					ncov2019.live
				




Hope this helps...


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## Rolltydr (Mar 29, 2020)

Karen G said:


> Continuing to harp on what was done or not done in the past and by whom it was done or not done serves no one. Our focus should be on what can be done going forward and trying to work together to get through this unprecedented time.



In order to know what to do going forward, we have to understand what worked, and didn’t work, in the past. Right now may not be the time, but after this is over, we absolutely must do a complete review of the response so we can have a better response next time around.


Harry


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## TravelTime (Mar 29, 2020)

Another sad story of how the shutdowns are affecting poor people. It is really bad in India. These are the kinds of stories that have me asking whether the cure is worse than the disease. That relates to the other article I posted calling this a “white collar quarantine.“ Those of us who are blessed and privileged with being able to work from home, still have jobs and have savings will survive just fine with staying at home for an indefinite period of time. But millions of the world’s poor are suffering immediately. In the USA, overall we are lucky. Our pain will be nothing compared to what people in poorer countries will experience.

***********

*India’s Coronavirus Lockdown Leaves Vast Numbers Stranded and Hungry*
Millions of migrant laborers in Indian cities live and eat where they work, and the sudden shutdown of businesses has upended their lives. Anger is rising.

NEW DELHI — In one of the biggest migrations in India’s modern history, hundreds of thousands of migrant laborers have begun long journeys on foot to get home, having been rendered homeless and jobless by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

With businesses shut down in cities across the country, vast numbers of migrants — many of whom lived and ate where they worked — were suddenly without food and shelter. Soup kitchens in Delhi, the capital, have been overwhelmed.

Thousands of migrants in Delhi, including whole families, packed their pots, pans and blankets into rucksacks, some balancing children on their shoulders as they walked along interstate highways. Some planned to walk hundreds of miles. But as they reached the Delhi border, many were beaten back by the police.

“You fear the disease, living on the streets. But I fear hunger more, not corona,” said Papu, 32, who came to Delhi three weeks ago for work and was now trying to return to his home in Saharanpur in the state of Uttar Pradesh, 125 miles away.

While dozens of countries across the world are under lockdown to contain the virus’s spread, in crowded and impoverished places like India, many fear that the measures could spark social unrest. Millions of people live in Indian slums, and staying at home for three weeks — as Mr. Modi has ordered — is a daunting prospect in such places, where dozens of family members often share a few rooms.

Migrant laborers have been protesting the lockdown across India. On Saturday, thousands came out to the streets in the southern state of Kerala, saying they had not eaten in days. The authorities urged them to disperse for their own safety, but they ignored the commands.....









						India’s Coronavirus Lockdown Leaves Vast Numbers Stranded and Hungry (Published 2020)
					

The sudden shutdown of businesses has upended the lives of millions of migrant laborers in Indian cities. More than a dozen migrants have died, and anger is rising.




					www.nytimes.com


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

DrQ said:


> In the US, until we can get the aggressive testing in place, the only tools we have are social distancing and widespread quarantining. Back in my quality improvement days ... you can't improve a process until you can measure it. Right now, I would SWAG that for every positive test we have, there are 500 in the community that have not been measured.



Agree 100%. My personal management approach always been an evidence based approach and I often reference the same phrase you mention, we cannot manage what we are not measuring, except via sentiment. While sentiment is always valuable, sentiment without underlying evidence can be dangerous from a decision making perspective.

I’m pretty sure I’ve said I think we need a two pronged approach with regard to testing, so I won’t repeat myself again here. 


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

Duplicate post.


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## dioxide45 (Mar 29, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I have yet to see a state by state chart similar to this. Does anyone know if such a chart exists?


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## DrQ (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> Obviously there is no specific age, I talking about seniors as a group. Individually it's probably a function of one's assets and health.
> 
> SS, medicare, state pensions are underfunded. Now massive deficit spending could lead to runaway inflation.


First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist ... Is this how it begins?


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## Rolltydr (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> Obviously there is no specific age, I talking about seniors as a group. Individually it's probably a function of one's assets and health.
> 
> SS, medicare, state pensions are underfunded. Now massive deficit spending could lead to runaway inflation.



Could pigs fly?


Harry


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## TravelTime (Mar 29, 2020)

TravelTime said:


> Another sad story of how the shutdowns are affecting poor people. It is really bad in India. These are the kinds of stories that have me asking whether the cure is worse than the disease. That relates to the other article I posted calling this a “white collar quarantine.“ Those of us who are blessed and privileged with being able to work from home, still have jobs and have savings will survive just fine with staying at home for an indefinite period of time. But millions of the world’s poor are suffering immediately. In the USA, overall we are lucky. Our pain will be nothing compared to what people in poorer countries will experience.
> 
> ***********
> 
> ...



I just need to add one more quote from the article:
“This may have been a good decision for the wealthy, but not those of us with no money,” said Deepak Kumar, a 28-year-old truck driver, referring to the lockdown.


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> I have yet to see a state by state chart similar to this. Does anyone know if such a chart exists?



I don’t have a chart just like these by US state, I do have a HEAT map for the US:



			https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/coronavirus-map-united-states.svg?frame=webS
		


It’s all available for free here:









						Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read
					

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world




					www.ft.com
				




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## bluehende (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> if you know the case numbers, publish them, nobody else has that knowledge.
> 
> My sister in law was tested and 3 days later the results came back positive. Her husband came down with the same symptoms, asked his doctor if he should be tested and he told him no, just assume that he is positive and act accordingly. That small sample indicates the actual cases are twice what has been reported. I'm assuming that it's higher. There's evidence that half infected don't have any symptoms.


  I guess the cdc doesn't count as someone.

Here is the link already published.








						Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19
					

COVID-19 can result in severe disease, including hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit, and death, especially among older adults. Everyone can take actions, such as social distancing...




					www.cdc.gov
				








from the report


Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, start highlight36%end highlight were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged start highlight≤19end highlight years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years.

There are many more like this.  If you do not believe the CDC then feel free to google it yourself.  Of course if you just listen to the experts (ie Fauci)  they have been getting this word out now for a week to dispel the misinformation that this disease does not affect young people.  Their outcomes are better but they are still getting the disease with substantial health consequences.


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## Roger830 (Mar 29, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I’m not sure exactly how we are defining case numbers, but I’m assuming we are defining the number of actual reported cases. If so, this is a dashboard that is pulling data from the Johns Hopkins database. The JH dashboard for laptops/desktops is here:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



What good is that information? NYC is only testing those hospitalized. It's likely most people infected aren't tested.


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## dioxide45 (Mar 29, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> I don’t have a chart just like these by US state, I do have a HEAT map for the US:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I found those HEAT maps are pretty useless. If you look at NY it looks like the entire state is covered, but the circles are just a guage of how many cases. The more cases, the bigger the circle. Over half of NY cases are in and around NY city. 

My thought on the trajectory map is since many states are larger in population than many countries in the world (certainly in cases like Europe), it may be of interest to see the trajectory at a state level. Right now comparing USA to individual countries in Europe isn't necessarily accurate. Comparing all of Europe to all of the US is a better measure or comparing each country in Europe to each state in the US is a better comparison.


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## Roger830 (Mar 29, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I guess the cdc doesn't count as someone.
> 
> Here is the link already published.
> 
> ...



I don't see the point in even considering 508 cases.
I'm not talking about this anymore, forever.


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## bluehende (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> I don't see the point in even considering 508 cases.
> I'm not talking about this anymore, forever.


Again feel free to google it.  I have seen the same numbers in many reports.  I used the CDC one because of the irrefutable source.  Find one that supports your premise or stop talking about it your choice.


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## TravelTime (Mar 29, 2020)

bluehende said:


> Again feel free to google it.  I have seen the same numbers in many reports.  I used the CDC one because of the irrefutable source.  Find one that supports your premise or stop talking about it your choice.



From what I have read, you are correct that COVID-19 afflicts both young and old. In fact, an infant just died in Illinois. Death rate is higher among the old but having an underlying health condition puts people at higher risk than just age alone. CDC reported that 8 out of 10 deaths are in people over age 65. I wonder if the younger people (under 65) who die from COVID-19 have underlying conditions that make them more susceptible?









						COVID-19 and Your Health
					

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.




					www.cdc.gov


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> I found those HEAT maps are pretty useless. If you look at NY it looks like the entire state is covered, but the circles are just a guage of how many cases. The more cases, the bigger the circle. Over half of NY cases are in and around NY city.
> 
> My thought on the trajectory map is since many states are larger in population than many countries in the world (certainly in cases like Europe), it may be of interest to see the trajectory at a state level. Right now comparing USA to individual countries in Europe isn't necessarily accurate. Comparing all of Europe to all of the US is a better measure or comparing each country in Europe to each state in the US is a better comparison.



Agreed I don’t like the HEAT map that much either except in so far as showing the level of activity across the country and where we should focus resources.

There’s another chart below that shows the most impacted sub national areas:






Granted not state based, but the worst impacted states are present on this chart at least.


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## goaliedave (Mar 29, 2020)

Karen G said:


> *Canada* is considerably *larger* than the *U.S.*, in sheer land mass, but *has* about one tenth the human *population*, some 36,983,180 compared to the US at 376,031,546. The entire *population* of *Canada* is about the same as can be found in the state of California.


Correct so with 1/10 the population you would expect 1/10 the numbers of USA. Canada is obviously doing considerably better.

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## goaliedave (Mar 29, 2020)

HitchHiker71 said:


> Canada most likely has certain demographic and population density advantages that will benefit your country when compared to the US, but Canada is also a couple weeks behind the US in so far as the death rates are concerned along the x axis so you are simply earlier in the curve than the US:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Amen, thanks for prayers! Your interpretations are contrary to Canadian expert interpretations so we will only know at the end. The only thing we know is that USA will have the highest deaths per population in the end, and there will be a lot of finger pointing and conspiracy theories.

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## Panina (Mar 29, 2020)

goaliedave said:


> Correct so with 1/10 the population you would expect 1/10 the numbers of USA. Canada is obviously doing considerably better.
> 
> Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk


Time will tell. Todays numbers are not tomorrows, they are behind us.


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## goaliedave (Mar 29, 2020)

Panina said:


> Time will tell. Todays numbers are tomorrows, they are behind us.


This century's movement to "evidence-based" decision making has certainly left alot of people behind.

Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk


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## HitchHiker71 (Mar 29, 2020)

Roger830 said:


> What good is that information? NYC is only testing those hospitalized. It's likely most people infected aren't tested.



Are you kidding? Data is important. Tracking actual case reported data is critical - as it is the actuals that are used as part of algorithmic modeling calculations that the CDC publishes to provide ranges for estimated infections that you are asking about. 

You do realize that almost ALL published infectious disease data is not actual data yes? It’s based upon actual data then reverse engineered to estimate the number of infections based upon other data points such as R-naught and transmission rates just to name two. Even in countries that have very aggressive testing protocols - like South Korea - they have only tested one out of every 150 people on average. We are around one for every 900 here in the US at present - and ramping up from there. 


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## Chrispee (Mar 29, 2020)

goaliedave said:


> Correct so with 1/10 the population you would expect 1/10 the numbers of USA. Canada is obviously doing considerably better.



I think that Karen G's point was Canada has less population density which should equate to lower transmission rates.


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## Ken555 (Mar 29, 2020)

Chrispee said:


> I think that Karen G's point was Canada has less population density which should equate to lower transmission rates.



That's only accurate if Canadians are equally distant from each other. As has already been said, most Canadians live along their southern border. Think of Vancouver and Toronto density, just as two examples. Still, it does appear Vancouver was able to catch it sufficiently early to minimize exposure and mimic the South Korea results...let's hope. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...-in-its-battle-against-covid-19-bc-gets-some/


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## Chrispee (Mar 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> That's only accurate if Canadians are equally distant from each other. As has already been said, most Canadians live along their southern border. Think of Vancouver and Toronto density, just as two examples. Still, it does appear Vancouver was able to catch it sufficiently early to minimize exposure and mimic the South Korea results...let's hope. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...-in-its-battle-against-covid-19-bc-gets-some/



Right that does make sense thanks. I'm actually surprised that Vancouver has fared as well as it has thus far given the demographics.


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## dioxide45 (Mar 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> That's only accurate if Canadians are equally distant from each other. As has already been said, most Canadians live along their southern border. Think of Vancouver and Toronto density, just as two examples. Still, it does appear Vancouver was able to catch it sufficiently early to minimize exposure and mimic the South Korea results...let's hope. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...-in-its-battle-against-covid-19-bc-gets-some/


The population density of Toronto and Vancouver are about 10,000 per square mile. In New York City it is 24,000 per square mile.


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## Ken555 (Mar 29, 2020)

dioxide45 said:


> The population density of Toronto and Vancouver are about 10,000 per square mile. In New York City it is 24,000 per square mile.



I did not say they were equal. In fact, I did not mention NYC at all. 

Population density is relative. But do we really know a safe amount?


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## geekette (Mar 29, 2020)

Tracking Covid-19 cases in the US
					

Track the spread of coronavirus in the United States with maps and updates on cases and deaths.




					www.cnn.com
				




If you scroll down, you can hover over the various chart lines to see which state is which.


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## Big Matt (Mar 29, 2020)

Just to put a little more context in terms of Canada, US, and China in terms of size:
Canada - 9.98 square km
United States - 9.83 square km
China - 9.60 square km

We are splitting hairs on the size of the three.  I think we all know which one has the most people and the least.  Guess which one will have the fewest cases and deaths?  Guess which country's people travel the least per capita?


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## goaliedave (Mar 29, 2020)

Chrispee said:


> I think that Karen G's point was Canada has less population density which should equate to lower transmission rates.


Wrong... as another posted above, everyone in Canada lives on the USA border, same density as USA neighbours.

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## goaliedave (Mar 29, 2020)

Ken555 said:


> That's only accurate if Canadians are equally distant from each other. As has already been said, most Canadians live along their southern border. Think of Vancouver and Toronto density, just as two examples. Still, it does appear Vancouver was able to catch it sufficiently early to minimize exposure and mimic the South Korea results...let's hope. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...-in-its-battle-against-covid-19-bc-gets-some/


I'm from Ottawa but staying in BC until this is over. As you said, doing a great job here. Poor Quebec, had their school spring break early so lots of work to do.

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