# Initial RCI Observations on a Low Value Trader



## MichaelColey (Jun 30, 2010)

I recently bought a 3BR lockout at Summer Bay in Orlando, and despite the fact that it's a low value trader, here are some observations I've made about what I can exchange into at RCI:

I split it into 1BR and 2BR units and deposited them separately, as suggested by just about everyone I talked to. The 2BR sees about 5% more inventory than the 1BR.

1) I can trade the 1BR into a 3BR at 195 different resorts worldwide. For comparison purposes, there are 327 resorts with 3BR units available as Extra Vacations and 108 of those are priced $250-$349.

2) I see a lot of good inventory for NEXT MONTH. For instance, almost all of the Hawaii inventory I see is for next month. I see inventory at 9 units (vs. 13 units Extra Vacations ranging from $450 to $2360 and none Last Call). Comparing that inventory, there are 3 that are available for exchange or Extra Vacations ($828, $1422, and $450), 6 that are exchange only, and 10 that are Extra Vacations only.

3) It looks like I can exchange the 1BR (or 2BR) side of my Summer Bay Resort for a 3BR at the same. Lots of weeks are available. (Hmm, I wonder if the 1 in 4 rule still applies since I'm an owner there?) Not that this is necessarily a good deal, as there are 12 resorts with 3+ BR units with Extra Vacations from $297.

I think I'll definitely be able to get good value out of exchanging.  (I know I've already got good value out of Extra Vacations.)


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## rapmarks (Jun 30, 2010)

why do you call this a low value trader?  I have a two bedroom gold crown, june deposits on a lake and i pull one bedroom and studios in unrated resorts.  have never seen a three bedroom resort.  when i look in Florida, usually won't see anything after Dec 15 til May.  that is a low value trader.


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## jamstew (Jun 30, 2010)

rapmarks said:


> why do you call this a low value trader?  I have a two bedroom gold crown, june deposits on a lake and i pull one bedroom and studios in unrated resorts.  have never seen a three bedroom resort.  when i look in Florida, usually won't see anything after Dec 15 til May.  that is a low value trader.



Yep, I've got one of those, too, but a silver crown. The only 2BR I can get are off-season.


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## MichaelColey (Jun 30, 2010)

LOL - I guess it depends on who I talk to.  Everyone keeps saying Orlando resorts are poor traders because there is so much inventory and mine saw less than almost everyone else who posted in the recent RCI Trade test.


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## bankr63 (Jun 30, 2010)

*Overbuilt or heavily built?*



MichaelColey said:


> LOL - I guess it depends on who I talk to.  Everyone keeps saying Orlando resorts are poor traders because there is so much inventory and mine saw less than almost everyone else who posted in the recent RCI Trade test.



What they usually say is that Orlando is overbuilt (lots of stock.) While it is very true that there is lots of stock, I'm still not convinced that Orlando isn't just heavily built (not necessarily OVER built).  And THAT doesn't necessarily indicate that all Orlando resorts are poor traders.  

Orlando is also one of the best tourism destinations in the US; so as much as there may be huge supply, there is also a relatively heavy and constant demand.  Top end resorts like DVC and HGVC are really good traders.  The demand for these locations is huge.  Some resorts don't fare as well; they were probably valued better before the market built up (demand outstripped supply).  But as the market matured, their value returned to something more reasonable.  Being a Canadian, I have no problem finding people who will cover my MF's for March break timeshare getaways as soon as I mention Disney/Orlando - so I have no problem finding demand.  

I respect what you are trying to do here.  EVERYONE who owns a timeshare suspects that they are being undervalued by II or RCI for some reason.  Once RCI starts giving a peek (albeit not too far) behind the curtain, perhaps some of the valuation will make more sense.  I suspect at that time, this board will be full of indignant posts about why resort W in location X should be worth more than resort Y in location Z.  Your Summer Bay is worth more on RCI than some think it should be worth, but RCI doesn't benefit from overvaluing it.  If they can't flip it, they don't make money, so they must have a pretty good idea of the value.  

So far I'm also happy with the trades I see and book for my Orlando TSs (3 units), and I'm happy with the MF I pay, and that's really all that matters.  If I no longer see trades I want, and/or I can no longer rent to friends and acquaintances, and/or I no longer want to ever go back to WDW :ignore: then I guess I'll dump them and try a different approach.

M Ross


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## RedDogSD (Jun 30, 2010)

One thing that you were on to Michael, and it is why I also bought in an overbuilt area is that you can easily get back into your home resort, or home area and increase your unit size.

My Vegas 2 bedroom lockoff is locked off for the best week on the TDI that I could get (weeks 16 and 17), 2011.  With those deposits, I can do exactly what I want easily.

I am going to use my Gold Membership to get 2 6 day exchanges, for 2 bedroom units for each side of my lockoff, or 2 7 day exchanges using the XYZ promotion.  Since I am going back into Vegas, there is no problem getting what I want.  I will actually go to my sister resort Tahiti Village which is nicer than mine, but mine has a $220 lower MF per year.  So, for the cost of a few exchange fees, and my very low MF, I will get 4 trips to Vegas from one ownership.  

I imagine you could do the same since you love Orlando.  Enjoy!!1


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## LLW (Jun 30, 2010)

rapmarks said:


> why do you call this a low value trader?  I have a two bedroom gold crown, june deposits on a lake and i pull one bedroom and studios in unrated resorts.  have never seen a three bedroom resort.  when i look in Florida, usually won't see anything after Dec 15 til May.  that is a low value trader.



Can't you see 2BRs and 3BRs for the next 45 days, when supposedly all trade power considerations are off? Especially those that are on Extra Vacations and Last Calls for low rents?


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## timeos2 (Jun 30, 2010)

*It is heavily built but not truly overbuilt as there is  nearly year round demand*



bankr63 said:


> What they usually say is that Orlando is overbuilt (lots of stock.) While it is very true that there is lots of stock, I'm still not convinced that Orlando isn't just heavily built (not necessarily OVER built).  And THAT doesn't necessarily indicate that all Orlando resorts are poor traders.
> 
> Orlando is also one of the best tourism destinations in the US; so as much as there may be huge supply, there is also a relatively heavy and constant demand.  Top end resorts like DVC and HGVC are really good traders.  The demand for these locations is huge.  Some resorts don't fare as well; they were probably valued better before the market built up (demand outstripped supply).  But as the market matured, their value returned to something more reasonable.  Being a Canadian, I have no problem finding people who will cover my MF's for March break timeshare getaways as soon as I mention Disney/Orlando - so I have no problem finding demand.



Very true. The blanket statement that Orlando resorts aren't good traders simply isn't the case. Like any area there are good & bad resorts and those that are high quality and/or limited in deposits tend to trade very well. 

Those that truly are over built  supply far too much inventory to the primary exchange company - such as the mega resorts like Wastegate in II, Vistana, Orange Lake, etc that are far too big thus they bury the exchange systems in far too much inventory thus low trade value. As an example the Wastegates that also trade with RCI do MUCH better trades as they get very limited deposits PLUS you get your deeded week rather than the poor value weeks that Wastegate insists on giving II (& that II in typical member negative fashion accepts!) rather than the deeded, fixed week(s) you may own there. 

The better quality resorts and/or those that have a relatively low number of deposits can do very well as traders although buying to trade rather than use the majority of the time is still a bad choice at any location in the weeks systems.  For the majority of planned usage to be at your resort with just an occasional need to trade out a good resort in Orlando can be an excellent place to own. It can get you the resort you desire in the use times you desire & avoid the hassles and costs of trying to trade in especially in the high demand summer/holiday (no school) times most people really want. While there are OK resorts or often the choice of the mega resorts even those can be tough to get the unit size and exact dates - or you have to settle for the less desirable resorts that really aren't up to the high standards most Orlando resorts are well known for.

If you want to visit Orlando regularly and with a know quality / use period as in most places you have the best access if you own where you want to go.


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## MichaelColey (Jun 30, 2010)

LLW said:


> the next 45 days, when supposedly all trade power considerations are off?


Ah, I suspected that something like that was at play, since I could see so much Hawaii inventory in July.

Quick check to see if all trading power considerations are off...

RCI Weeks members, how many total units do you see for July 2010?  (Search For a Vacation / Check-In Month July 2010)  I see 2225 available units at 512 resorts for either one of my deposits.

(I suspect that some may see more or less due to blocks - for instance, I know I wouldn't be able to see DVC since my units are in Orlando.)

[Moderators: If this type of detail shouldn't be shared outside of the private Sightings forum, feel free to take whatever action you feel is best - deleting, spliting, moving, etc.]


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## krj9999 (Jun 30, 2010)

Just to add some perspective, my strong traders see 406 and 402 resorts worldwide, respectively, with 3BR available for exchange.  Though I have no idea how many of them I'd be interested in staying at.



MichaelColey said:


> 1) I can trade the 1BR into a 3BR at 195 different resorts worldwide. For comparison purposes, there are 327 resorts with 3BR units available as Extra Vacations and 108 of those are priced $250-$349.


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## suzanne (Jun 30, 2010)

I used a studio GC Red week and see 461 resorts/2063 units for July 2010

This was a Christmas Week given 1 year out. I see on a rare occasion a 3 bedroom mostly what I see is studios or 1 bedrooms and depending on the season some 2 bedrooms.

My best friend sees 501 Resorts/ 2178 Units with a standard Southern Calif. beach summer week thats not even on the water and gets poor reviews. She sees lots of two and three bedrooms and pulls alot of Disney units.


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## AFARR (Jun 30, 2010)

*Right now I'm seeing 138k total places...with*

a 2 Br. Gold Crown  2010 Wk 37 ('red'...but in the shoulder season) on the OBX deposited about 1 1/2 mo ago.

18 resorts (55 units) of 3 Br. in July.... none listed in the US.   3 Resorts/3 Units in Hawaii (July) with 2 Br.   

5 Resorts (17 units) with 2 Br. in August for Hawaii.  

362 Resorts with 3 Br. until the limits of my search (2011+)  (187 in the US, but no Hawaii units).   I can see 8 resorts in Hawaii (269 units) with 2 Br. until the limits of the search.

For this July...I see total 464 (resorts)/2084 (units)...51 US resorts  (most of the US Resorts...about 60% in a quick skim....are Gold/Silver or Hospitality ranked resorts).


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## LLW (Jun 30, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> Ah, I suspected that something like that was at play, since I could see so much Hawaii inventory in July.
> 
> Quick check to see if all trading power considerations are off...
> 
> ...



And the quality filter - Vacation Experience Profile VEP - would still be functioning, not so much the up filter but the down filter - high quality weeks will still not be able to see the extremely low quality weeks.


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## jamstew (Jun 30, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> RCI Weeks members, how many total units do you see for July 2010?  (Search For a Vacation / Check-In Month July 2010)  I see 2225 available units at 512 resorts for either one of my deposits.



I see 2117 units in 475 resorts with my one deposit (SC 2BR lakefront week 31 in Arkansas). 976 of the units are in Mexico, and only 135 are in the US  In the US, a quick skim shows a few 2BR available in unrated resorts or off-season for the location (Palm Springs).


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## durrod (Jul 1, 2010)

Michael:

As far as I know the 1 in 4 rule does not apply to owners trading back to Summer bay. Can you see the houses at summer bay?


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## MichaelColey (Jul 1, 2010)

durrod said:


> Can you see the houses at summer bay?


I didn't check for that, but I know I was able to see Summer Bay and Summer Bay Villas.  Let me look again and see if I can see the houses...

Nope, no Houses at Summer Bay.  Just Summer Bay Resort (222 units, 1-3BR) and the Villas at Summer Bay (19 units, 2BR).


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## Carolinian (Jul 1, 2010)

Look at the amount of inventory in the system.  Compare how much Orlando is out there availible at any time versus say England, South Africa, Charleston, SC, or San Francisco.  The huge amount of inventory always availible is what screams oversupply in the timeshare system.  Then, of course, there is always the inside RCI insight of Bootleg on the matter.  Orlando owners always seem to be in denial, but facts are facts.




bankr63 said:


> What they usually say is that Orlando is overbuilt (lots of stock.) While it is very true that there is lots of stock, I'm still not convinced that Orlando isn't just heavily built (not necessarily OVER built).  And THAT doesn't necessarily indicate that all Orlando resorts are poor traders.
> 
> Orlando is also one of the best tourism destinations in the US; so as much as there may be huge supply, there is also a relatively heavy and constant demand.  Top end resorts like DVC and HGVC are really good traders.  The demand for these locations is huge.  Some resorts don't fare as well; they were probably valued better before the market built up (demand outstripped supply).  But as the market matured, their value returned to something more reasonable.  Being a Canadian, I have no problem finding people who will cover my MF's for March break timeshare getaways as soon as I mention Disney/Orlando - so I have no problem finding demand.
> 
> ...


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## timeos2 (Jul 1, 2010)

*Not a direct option - just another choice that may not fit*



Carolinian said:


> Look at the amount of inventory in the system.  Compare how much Orlando is out there availible at any time versus say England, South Africa, Charleston, SC, or San Francisco.  The huge amount of inventory always availible is what screams oversupply in the timeshare system.  Then, of course, there is always the inside RCI insight of Bootleg on the matter.  Orlando owners always seem to be in denial, but facts are facts.



As usual ignoring the fact that the desire to request England & South Africa is likely very limited as well as time, costs and location are NOT apt to appeal to someone looking to take the family to a popular destination that appeals to all of them. To some degree the same for San Francisco or Charleston, SC - certainly places US travelers want to see but NOT the repeat destination that an area like Orlando is. It is easier to fulfill the far more limited demand for areas that are very seasonal or overseas and domestic areas that lack year round attractions as they just don't have the near universal appeal as a "one size fits all" entertainment mecca's like Orlando or Las Vegas. 

Even Hawaii suffers from the high cost of travel there when compared to the drive to ability of the lower 48.  You cannot simply substitute a trip to England or Hawaii as a true option for most families that want an inexpensive trip to Williamsburg, Orlando or Las Vegas where they can load up the car and enjoy a large, upscale unit surrounded by plenty of attractions. Sure the once in a lifetime trip to England or a special stay in San Francisco might be on the radar but not as a routine. And you sure don't hear about millions of families looking to travel to South Africa or even Paris / London on a regular basis as you do for Orlando.  The shear volume of interest and ability to absorb even the incredible amount of inventory that Orlando offers shows where people find value. Not to say those other areas don't but it simply isn't an option for many and if there is one unit or 100 in England doesn't matter to the majority of families looking to see Harry Potter land or the mouse.


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## Carolinian (Jul 1, 2010)

Heck, even before moving to Europe, I had made about 5 trips to England for every one trip I had made to Orlando, all for leisure travel. And I even lived in Florida for a year, where Orlando was not that far away (Tampa Bay area).

The key to exchange value is supply and demand in the entire system not just among some subset of it.  Look at the number of resorts in South Africa, for example, and then the number of weeks availible for exchange.  Compare that to the number of resort in Orlando and the weeks availible for exchange.  Ditto England.  Heck, I have checked and found more availibility at one resort in Orlando, Vacation Village a Parkway, than in the whole of England.  England has an offseason, so being warm all year does not seem to help Orlando that much.  The Canary Islands are also warm all year, a nice place, and overbuit with timeshare.  There is also always a lot of RCI availibility there as well.

Also, I look at the large amount of inventory that RCI is offering for rent in Orlando at or below m/f, which speaks volumes.  Except for Christmas / New Years and summer, it is a better deal to just rent in Orlando from RCI instead of doing a trade whch involves m/f plus exchange fee.




timeos2 said:


> As usual ignoring the fact that the desire to request England & South Africa is likely very limited as well as time, costs and location are NOT apt to appeal to someone looking to take the family to a popular destination that appeals to all of them. To some degree the same for San Francisco or Charleston, SC - certainly places US travelers want to see but NOT the repeat destination that an area like Orlando is. It is easier to fulfill the far more limited demand for areas that are very seasonal or overseas and domestic areas that lack year round attractions as they just don't have the near universal appeal as a "one size fits all" entertainment mecca's like Orlando or Las Vegas.
> 
> Even Hawaii suffers from the high cost of travel there when compared to the drive to ability of the lower 48.  You cannot simply substitute a trip to England or Hawaii as a true option for most families that want an inexpensive trip to Williamsburg, Orlando or Las Vegas where they can load up the car and enjoy a large, upscale unit surrounded by plenty of attractions. Sure the once in a lifetime trip to England or a special stay in San Francisco might be on the radar but not as a routine. And you sure don't hear about millions of families looking to travel to South Africa or even Paris / London on a regular basis as you do for Orlando.  The shear volume of interest and ability to absorb even the incredible amount of inventory that Orlando offers shows where people find value. Not to say those other areas don't but it simply isn't an option for many and if there is one unit or 100 in England doesn't matter to the majority of families looking to see Harry Potter land or the mouse.


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## rapmarks (Jul 1, 2010)

I did a search for July using all 4 deposits:  all June 2 bedroom gold crown weeks.
for July there were 1900, I filtered it to USA, 161 units, 69 resorts, lots of studios, hotel room, one bedroom, a scattering of two bedroom, mostly last minute in Hawaii, no 3 bedrooms.  
I have a real problem getting the RCI search to function sine the change, can't get very far down the list before it blanks on me.


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## JudyS (Jul 2, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> I recently bought a 3BR lockout at Summer Bay in Orlando, and despite the fact that it's a low value trader, here are some observations I've made about what I can exchange into at RCI...


I'm curious -- why did you buy this unit if you planned to trade, and knew it was a low value trader?  Isn't the annual fee fairly high?


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## MichaelColey (Jul 2, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> I recently bought a 3BR lockout at Summer Bay in Orlando, and despite the fact that it's a low value trader





JudyS said:


> I'm curious -- why did you buy this unit if you planned to trade, and knew it was a low value trader? Isn't the annual fee fairly high?


Trading was one consideration, but not a primary one.  I bought it for several reasons:

1) Orlando is somewhere we go every year (and I can foresee us wanting to go there regularly for a long time), so we always have the option of using it.

2) While the maintenance fee is high, it is a lockoff unit so we can split it and get two exchanges.

3) To get access to RCI Extra Vacations and Last Call, which we've already seen great value from.  (This was my first timeshare purchase.)

4) The purchase price was just $1 (plus 2010 maintenance, and we got 2010 use).

5) I suspected that the trading value wasn't as bad as everyone said.  (And from my initial observations above, I think I can easily get enough value out of it that it'll be better trading it than using it.)

6) Most of the places that are supposed to be better traders have higher maintenance fees, considerably higher up front costs, and aren't places we would necessarily go (much less go every year), and you never know how long they'll continue to be good traders.

That was my thinking.  How much of it turns out to be right and how much of it turns out to be wrong remains to be seen, but I'm happy with what I've seen so far.


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## LisaH (Jul 2, 2010)

Which 2010 week did you deposit?


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## Mel (Jul 2, 2010)

Carolinian said:


> Heck, even before moving to Europe, I had made about 5 trips to England for every one trip I had made to Orlando, all for leisure travel. And I even lived in Florida for a year, where Orlando was not that far away (Tampa Bay area).


And you think your travel style should be considered average?  Based on your needs, yes it makes sense not to own in Orlando.  Based on other people's need it often DOES make sense.  I love England, have been several times, and took the kids with us.  But I don't go every year, or even every other year.  I have Been to Orlando with the family many more times than England.  When most US families look at England, they are looking at it as part of Europe.  So maybe you should consider the number of resorts in Europe, and the availability, because the appeal of ALL of Europe might be similar to the appeal (and thus demand) of Orlando among this particular demographic - and it is a large portion of RCI's US membership.  Otherwise, how would the developers sell so many Orlando weeks?    


> The key to exchange value is supply and demand in the entire system not just among some subset of it.  Look at the number of resorts in South Africa, for example, and then the number of weeks availible for exchange.  Compare that to the number of resort in Orlando and the weeks availible for exchange.  Ditto England.  Heck, I have checked and found more availibility at one resort in Orlando, Vacation Village a Parkway, than in the whole of England.  England has an offseason, so being warm all year does not seem to help Orlando that much.  The Canary Islands are also warm all year, a nice place, and overbuit with timeshare.  There is also always a lot of RCI availibility there as well.


Yes, BOTH parts - both supply AND demand.  Yes, we all know Vacation Village (most of their resorts, not just Orlando) has an oversupply.  Buy when you look at the big picture, Orlando doesn't have nearly the oversupply you suggest.  Yes, you can almost always find a week available, but are 10% or even 5% of the units always available for a given week?  Take Orange Lake - you will almost always find at least one week available for a given check in date.  But that doesn't tell you very much, just that a single week is available.  Your search results will show the same thing whether only 1 unit is available, or if 300 are available.  Given the size of the resort, I'm not suprised to find units available most weeks - particularly since there is still some developer involvements (in all 4 phases, because they take weeks back when people trade up to their current points program).


> Also, I look at the large amount of inventory that RCI is offering for rent in Orlando at or below m/f, which speaks volumes.  Except for Christmas / New Years and summer, it is a better deal to just rent in Orlando from RCI instead of doing a trade whch involves m/f plus exchange fee.


Funny, I just checked the Extra Vacations for all of orange Lake.  The cheapest week availabe in a 2BR unit (the smallest I would consider, and what I own), is renting for $850.  That's MORE than my maintenance fee.  I realize there are plenty of other resorts with units for less than $500, but since I like Orange Lake, and would rather stay there (the other places I would consider instead were even more), the cost of the other units aren't really relevant.  I bought at Orange Lake because I like to stay there when I visit Orlando - much as the OP purchased her resort for similar reasons.

The fact that our particular resorts, and a handful of others in Orlando, don't trade nearly as poorly as some would expect (while others do trade poorly), suggests that the conventional "wisdom" about Orlando is faulty.  Top weeks at top resorts trade well, and are worth owning, lousy weeks and mediocre resorts are not.  Given the size of Orange Lake as compared to Vacation Village, if it were all of Orlando was "the same" I would expect Orange Lake to be the resort with significant excess inventory.  

Obviously purchasing in Orlando isn't a smart move for everybody, but for many it does in fact make sense.    Most of us agree that some Orlando resorts are overvalued in RCI Points, but certainly RCI Points values do not reflect trade power in RCI Weeks.  If it did, there is no way I would have purchased a second 1BR unit in Panama City Beach, because those units are only worth half what my OLCC weeks get - and it's not because the OLCC weeks are overvalued; they are significantly lower than those Vacation Village units that keep sitting empty.


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## JudyS (Jul 3, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> Trading was one consideration, but not a primary one.  I bought it for several reasons:
> 
> 1) Orlando is somewhere we go every year (and I can foresee us wanting to go there regularly for a long time), so we always have the option of using it....


Thanks for your reply! I tend to buy resorts for trading (I haven't ever stayed at most of the resorts I own), but buying where you want to stay is certainly a reasonable strategy, and one that many people on TUG recommend.


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## MichaelColey (Jul 3, 2010)

JudyS said:


> I tend to buy resorts for trading (I haven't ever stayed at most of the resorts I own), but buying where you want to stay is certainly a reasonable strategy, and one that many people on TUG recommend.


If I can turn that question around to try to understand "buying to trade" better...  I see that you have a DVC property, which I would think would be a great trader.  The downside (I think) is a high upfront cost and high maintenance fees.  Can you really trade into things that are so phenomenal that it offsets those costs?  (Or are the costs not as big as I'm picturing?)


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## Carolinian (Jul 3, 2010)

The fact that different people have different travel styles is exactly the reason why the supply and demand situation in the entire system cannot be gauged from one subgroup, but has to be looked at it totality.

England is not typical of all of Europe any more than Sanibel or Key West is typical of all of Florida.  I guess you are aware that Sanibel and Key West have much better supply / demand curves than Orlando.  Indeed, if you want to look for overbuilt areas of Europe, think Canary Islands, Costa del Sol in Spain, Hungary, and Finland.

Developers sell timeshare weeks in places where the conditions make it opportune to corner suckers, not places that have great supply / demand curves.  If they looked at supply / demand curves, there would be a heck of a lot more urban timeshare.

I am glad to see you acknowledge that there are indeed ''lousy weeks'' in Orlando.  Red all year is a real sham there, just like it is in the Canaries.

In looking at oversupply, one has to look at the constant overhang in inventory.  Orlando always has a lot more weeks availible than all of England or all of South Africa, for example.  You simply cannot get away from those facts.

Vacation Village is clearly one of those developers which has done a corrupt deal with RCI Points in valuation, and that is a big reason that any published system of values at RCI creates great concern about honesty and integrity.

As to Orange Lake rentals, I had to search to find it and finally did under ''Holiday Inn Club at Orange Lake Resort'', but when I did I found 2BR rentals at East Village and West Village starting at $587.60 and 2BR rentals at North Village starting at $644.10.  As I understand it, in Florida taxes are seperate from m/f, so to really compare m/f's with other places you have to add m/f plus taxes.  I suspect that those rental costs are under m/f plus taxes for a 2BR unit, and certainly less than the m/f plus exchange fee someone would have to pay to trade in.




Mel said:


> And you think your travel style should be considered average?  Based on your needs, yes it makes sense not to own in Orlando.  Based on other people's need it often DOES make sense.  I love England, have been several times, and took the kids with us.  But I don't go every year, or even every other year.  I have Been to Orlando with the family many more times than England.  When most US families look at England, they are looking at it as part of Europe.  So maybe you should consider the number of resorts in Europe, and the availability, because the appeal of ALL of Europe might be similar to the appeal (and thus demand) of Orlando among this particular demographic - and it is a large portion of RCI's US membership.  Otherwise, how would the developers sell so many Orlando weeks?
> 
> Yes, BOTH parts - both supply AND demand.  Yes, we all know Vacation Village (most of their resorts, not just Orlando) has an oversupply.  Buy when you look at the big picture, Orlando doesn't have nearly the oversupply you suggest.  Yes, you can almost always find a week available, but are 10% or even 5% of the units always available for a given week?  Take Orange Lake - you will almost always find at least one week available for a given check in date.  But that doesn't tell you very much, just that a single week is available.  Your search results will show the same thing whether only 1 unit is available, or if 300 are available.  Given the size of the resort, I'm not suprised to find units available most weeks - particularly since there is still some developer involvements (in all 4 phases, because they take weeks back when people trade up to their current points program).
> 
> ...


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## rickandcindy23 (Jul 3, 2010)

Mel said:


> Funny, I just checked the Extra Vacations for all of orange Lake.  The cheapest week availabe in a 2BR unit (the smallest I would consider, and what I own), is renting for $850.  That's MORE than my maintenance fee.  I realize there are plenty of other resorts with units for less than $500, but since I like Orange Lake, and would rather stay there (the other places I would consider instead were even more), the cost of the other units aren't really relevant.  I bought at Orange Lake because I like to stay there when I visit Orlando - much as the OP purchased her resort for similar reasons.
> 
> The fact that our particular resorts, and a handful of others in Orlando, don't trade nearly as poorly as some would expect (while others do trade poorly), suggests that the conventional "wisdom" about Orlando is faulty.  Top weeks at top resorts trade well, and are worth owning, lousy weeks and mediocre resorts are not.  Given the size of Orange Lake as compared to Vacation Village, if it were all of Orlando was "the same" I would expect Orange Lake to be the resort with significant excess inventory.
> 
> Obviously purchasing in Orlando isn't a smart move for everybody, but for many it does in fact make sense.    Most of us agree that some Orlando resorts are overvalued in RCI Points, but certainly RCI Points values do not reflect trade power in RCI Weeks.  If it did, there is no way I would have purchased a second 1BR unit in Panama City Beach, because those units are only worth half what my OLCC weeks get - and it's not because the OLCC weeks are overvalued; they are significantly lower than those Vacation Village units that keep sitting empty.



Developers put a lot of the inventory into Extra Vacations (RCI rentals), and they determine the price, not RCI.  So Orange Lake wants that much for those weeks, then people rent them, and they are invited to a timeshare presentation and know exactly what the renter paid.  They say, "That was a bargain for the week, but here you can own and pay $300 less than what you paid."  It's all about the sale.  

Carolinian is saying that VV at P is overvalued, and why is that?  You just agreed, too.  It's overvalued because the developer is in control.  I personally don't get it, because VV at P is nothing special.  I wonder if those points will go down, when the develper is gone.


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## rickandcindy23 (Jul 3, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> If I can turn that question around to try to understand "buying to trade" better...  I see that you have a DVC property, which I would think would be a great trader.  The downside (I think) is a high upfront cost and high maintenance fees.  Can you really trade into things that are so phenomenal that it offsets those costs?  (Or are the costs not as big as I'm picturing?)



Michael, most people don't trade their DVC points, because if you love DVC, you use it.  If you cannot use it one year, you can rent it and make nearly 3 times the maintenance fees, and you can rent your points very quickly on various BBS's.  

What are you using to compare your trading power, to judge how well your week trades?  I can help you with the comparisons.


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## Twinkstarr (Jul 3, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> If I can turn that question around to try to understand "buying to trade" better...  I see that you have a DVC property, which I would think would be a great trader.  The downside (I think) is a high upfront cost and high maintenance fees.  Can you really trade into things that are so phenomenal that it offsets those costs?  (Or are the costs not as big as I'm picturing?)



I'm a DVC owner and I bought them to use. If I don't use them in a given year I bank them and add a few days or book a bigger unit.

We skipped our annual VB trip at Easter this yr(going to HI this summer). Banked my points and booked a 3br BC for spring break 2011. 

I'd rent out before  I would deposit into RCI.


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## "Roger" (Jul 3, 2010)

rickandcindy23 said:


> ...Carolinian is saying that VV at P is overvalued, and why is that?  ... I personally don't get it, because VV at P is nothing special.  I wonder if those points will go down, when the develper is gone.


Two bedroom lockouts always do better than a straight two bedroom unit because RCI treats them as two single bedroom units.  (They have to because that is how owners would deposit the two sides separately if the total points for the separate units added up to more than what they would be given for a two bedroom unit.)  Thus, if you compare a two bedroom lockout against a two bedroom unit of the same rating (GC, for example) at a nearby resort, you will find that the two bedroom lockout garners about 30% more points than what a two bedroom unit will at a neighboring resort.  (This is consistent across the country.)

I am not sure what the "correct value" of the VV at P is, but please note that Vacation Village units are deposited as a pair of one bedrooms. (The two bedroom is a pair of lockouts.)  When you take this into account, VV at P is getting quite a few less points than Orange Lake for example.  So what is the correct value?


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## MichaelColey (Jul 3, 2010)

Right, I understand that most DVC owners buy to use, but Judy said she mainly buys to trade and she lists a DVC property as one of the timeshares she owns, so I was curious to hear how that works for her.  I understand that there are many different ways to approach things.


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## rickandcindy23 (Jul 3, 2010)

The one I am sure she uses is Disney.  

I don't know what a 1 bed at VV at P should be worth, but I would stay elsewhere, and that is what most people decide, and that is why there are so many weeks in RCI Weeks.  Note: This is a mostly points resort, and I can see over 600 units in RCI Weeks, with my mediocre trader, too.  There are a lot more than 600 units, too, because there are multiples of most every week, I am sure.  

There are so many at VV at P, there aren't enough other points users to take them, and when you go on the tour at VV, they make a big issue of the fact that there are other resorts you can get with less points.  VV is higher in points.  DVC 1 bedrooms and studios start at 28.5K and 41K and go all the way up to 56K and 71K for one bedrooms.  But those are at least worthy of those points.  But that is just the opinion of a Disney nut.  :rofl:


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## Mel (Jul 4, 2010)

Carolinian said:


> The fact that different people have different travel styles is exactly the reason why the supply and demand situation in the entire system cannot be gauged from one subgroup, but has to be looked at it totality.
> 
> England is not typical of all of Europe any more than Sanibel or Key West is typical of all of Florida.  I guess you are aware that Sanibel and Key West have much better supply / demand curves than Orlando.  Indeed, if you want to look for overbuilt areas of Europe, think Canary Islands, Costa del Sol in Spain, Hungary, and Finland.
> 
> ...


 I agree that there are many resorts that are not worth my bother in Orlando - not that there are many weeks, if any that don't deserve the red designation.  The demand for Orlando, even in the "slow" season is still better than the demand for any other place in shoulder season, and you can thank Disney World for a large part of that, and Orlando itself.  For those who are not restricted to traveling during school vacations, Orlando is still a great destination in those other times, and much more bearable during those times as well.  If I didn't have kids at home who would try to disown me, I would visit Orlando each year in October, for the International Food & Wine Festival.  The parks may not be open as late, but the crowds are smaller, so the waits are shorter, and it's not as hot.  If I wasn't interested in the Food & Wine Festival, January would be a great time to visit without kids.  


> In looking at oversupply, one has to look at the constant overhang in inventory.  Orlando always has a lot more weeks availible than all of England or all of South Africa, for example.  You simply cannot get away from those facts.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I have my suspicions about both Vacation Village and BIS Kitty Hawk.  Having been to presentations ages ago at both resorts, I recall  both claimed RCI offered bonus weeks for their deposits.  Those of us familiar with RCI's workings knew that these were not in fact RCI bonus weeks, but developer bonus weeks, which came for the excess inventory they deposited to RCI.  The resort deposited excess weeks during sales, and then credited those weeks to owners as "bonus weeks."  The resort was able to claim RCI wanted your deposit badly, and RCI was able to offer other excess inventory to you as and exchange against those bonus weeks.

Now, instead of offering bonus weeks, they're offering bonus points - every time you deposit one of those weeks, you get the equivalent of points for your owned week, plus a developer excess inventory week.  In other word, RCI is in fact getting 120,000 points worth of deposits when you deposit your week, but in the form of two weeks.  The only problem is they don't want you to know about this - the developer wants you to think your week alone is worth those points.  So to keep the dirty little secret, RCI charges that same amount to exchange INTO those resorts.

I think it's interesting that it is the same resorts that touted their bonus weeks, which now have inflated points values.





> As to Orange Lake rentals, I had to search to find it and finally did under ''Holiday Inn Club at Orange Lake Resort'', but when I did I found 2BR rentals at East Village and West Village starting at $587.60 and 2BR rentals at North Village starting at $644.10.  As I understand it, in Florida taxes are seperate from m/f, so to really compare m/f's with other places you have to add m/f plus taxes.  I suspect that those rental costs are under m/f plus taxes for a 2BR unit, and certainly less than the m/f plus exchange fee someone would have to pay to trade in.


Maintenance fees at Orange Lake include the taxes, though they are a separate line item - the only line item that varies from week to week.  Peak week owners pay higher taxes, slow season owner pay lower taxes.  Fees including taxes for a mid-season week last year were about $700, and would be lower for Early December and January weeks.  The added cost of an exchange fee is precisely my point about owning there as opposed to elsewhere.  With Exchange fees approaching $200, it is only cost effective to exchange in if you have low maintenance fees, and you only want to visit once every 3+ years.  Granted, those numbers are not the same for every Orlando timeshare (Orange Lake has lower fees than more than half the Orlando Resorts), but the nicer the resort, the higher the rental fees, and the harder it is to come across an exchange.  One of the reason Orange Lake has such high numbers of deposits is the percentage of internal exchanges - unlike the floating-week resorts, Orange Lake owners have fixed weeks, and now internal exchange program, except through RCI or other exchange companies.


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## JudyS (Jul 4, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> If I can turn that question around to try to understand "buying to trade" better...  I see that you have a DVC property, which I would think would be a great trader.  The downside (I think) is a high upfront cost and high maintenance fees.  Can you really trade into things that are so phenomenal that it offsets those costs?  (Or are the costs not as big as I'm picturing?)


Ah... I NEVER trade my DVC points. I always use them myself, or rent them out. My DVC ownership is really quite different from all of my other ownerships. I bought DVC to "own a piece of the magic" and also because there are some great Disney perks for DVC owners.  Trading DVC is a terrible deal, especially now that DVC trades through RCI. The cost is way, way too high for almost anything you can get through RCI.  It's my (many) other timeshares that I trade with! (I'm ashamed to admit how many I own; I'm a true addict!)  I should have clarified.


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## MichaelColey (Jul 5, 2010)

Mel said:


> For those who are not restricted to traveling during school vacations, Orlando is still a great destination in those other times, and much more bearable during those times as well. If I didn't have kids at home who would try to disown me, I would visit Orlando each year in October, for the International Food & Wine Festival. The parks may not be open as late, but the crowds are smaller, so the waits are shorter, and it's not as hot. If I wasn't interested in the Food & Wine Festival, January would be a great time to visit without kids.


We have enjoyed going to Disney the last few years during the F&W Festival.


JudyS said:


> Ah... I NEVER trade my DVC points.


Good to hear - I wondered.  I suspect that most feel the same way, because they very rarely show up on RCI.


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## Lisa P (Jul 5, 2010)

Carolinian said:


> The key to exchange value is supply and demand in the entire system not just among some subset of it.


Exactly.  I'd suggest that the demand in the entire system by the general exchanging public for "overbuilt" popular areas _far outstrips_ the demand by a smaller subset of exchange seekers who can afford family airfare to Europe or South Africa - especially in today's worldwide tight economy.  This is the rest of the US, and the world, not the shrinking subset with the largest leisure budget.



Carolinian said:


> As to Orange Lake rentals... I found 2BR rentals at East Village and West Village starting at $587.60 and 2BR rentals at North Village starting at $644.10.


Any evaluation of this must include whether the _dates_ are suitable for the _family_ seeking it and how the individual values the certainty of being able to reserve what they want, when they want it.



Carolinian said:


> Also, I look at the large amount of inventory that RCI is offering for rent in Orlando at or below m/f, which speaks volumes.


Perhaps, it just speaks of volume.  And that volume is predominantly in older resorts or those in active developer sales.  This is perfectly fine if you don't care which resorts you try on each vacation.  Hence, the common TUG advice to rent in Orlando.  However, if a family _prefers a particular home resort for frequent return vacations, especially during prime school breaks_, it still may make perfect sense to buy where they want to stay consistently - even in general locales with heavy timeshare development.  This eliminates the uncertainty and hassle of seeking ongoing rental availability _when and where_ they prefer.  And they don't need to add any $149-$189 exchange fees.

As with so much in timesharing, the _best value_ may be determined by the individual family's usage pattern and needs.  Blanket advice against owning in Orlando (or other heavily built areas) is really not helpful.



MichaelColey said:


> I bought it for several reasons:
> 
> 1) Orlando is somewhere we go every year (and I can foresee us wanting to go there regularly for a long time), so we always have the option of using it.
> 
> 6) Most of the places that are supposed to be better traders have higher maintenance fees, considerably higher up front costs, and aren't places we would necessarily go (much less go every year), and you never know how long they'll continue to be good traders.


I get your line of thinking.  Makes sense to me.


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## Carolinian (Jul 6, 2010)

I would agree that there is a lot of demand for Orlando.  I have never disagreed with that proposition.  What you and some other Orlando owners tend to forget is the other side of the coin, SUPPLY.  Orlando is overbuilt, so even with high demand, supply outstrips demand.  The same is true in the Canary Islands - nice place, warm all year, lots of timeshare, overbuilt.

The demand in the entire system happens to include people you apparently forget: the Europeans and South Africans who are members of RCI and participate in the exchange system.  For them affording a train ticket to somewhere else in their own area is certainly cheaper than a TATL plane ticket to Orlando.  Besides, for Europeans, if they really want to see the mouse, they have Euro Disney outside Paris. Americans on the other hand have no such alternative if they want to see Europe, except those provinicial enough to be satisfied with Disney's faux Europe at Epcot or Bush's faux Europe at Bush Gardens Williamsburg.  Looking at the TOTALITY of RCI's membership, your airfare argument falls apart.




Lisa P said:


> Exactly.  I'd suggest that the demand in the entire system by the general exchanging public for "overbuilt" popular areas _far outstrips_ the demand by a smaller subset of exchange seekers who can afford family airfare to Europe or South Africa - especially in today's worldwide tight economy.  This is the rest of the US, and the world, not the shrinking subset with the largest leisure budget.
> 
> 
> Any evaluation of this must include whether the _dates_ are suitable for the _family_ seeking it and how the individual values the certainty of being able to reserve what they want, when they want it.
> ...


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## pranas (Jul 6, 2010)

I only stay at nice brand name resorts in Orlando and have always gotten a trade when I wanted one.  I have used  low traders and points to get these exchanges. I never use a lot of points either.  The only explanation for this is supply and demand.  Orlando is an inexpensive and easy exchange because there is lots of supply. I would not buy an Orlando timeshare because of this
but really would like more avalialbility in European cities.  I have to use RHC points to get these.


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## Mel (Jul 6, 2010)

Carolinian said:


> I would agree that there is a lot of demand for Orlando.  I have never disagreed with that proposition.  What you and some other Orlando owners tend to forget is the other side of the coin, SUPPLY.  Orlando is overbuilt, so even with high demand, supply outstrips demand.  The same is true in the Canary Islands - nice place, warm all year, lots of timeshare, overbuilt.
> 
> The demand in the entire system happens to include people you apparently forget: the Europeans and South Africans who are members of RCI and participate in the exchange system.  For them affording a train ticket to somewhere else in their own area is certainly cheaper than a TATL plane ticket to Orlando.  Besides, for Europeans, if they really want to see the mouse, they have Euro Disney outside Paris. Americans on the other hand have no such alternative if they want to see Europe, except those provinicial enough to be satisfied with Disney's faux Europe at Epcot or Bush's faux Europe at Bush Gardens Williamsburg.  Looking at the TOTALITY of RCI's membership, your airfare argument falls apart.


We're not forgetting those members at all.  I would venture to guess tham most RCI members in the western hemisphere tend to spend their vacations in the western hemisphere, and the same to apply to thos ein the eastern hemisphere.  Thus we must look at each independantly.  For those in the western hemisphere, the demand for Orlando outstrips everywhere else, particularly since timeshares here mostly marketed to families - either younger nuclear families, or grandparents traveling with their grandchildren or extended families.  

Now compare Orlando to the many beach areas, most of which are highly seasonal.  During the peak weeks in Orlando, it is difficult to find a trade, unless you own a good trader - not everybody can trade into a peak week in Orlando.  The same is true of the beach resorts.  But then look at the slower seasons.  While there may always be units available, the occupancy rate during the slow season is much better than in those beach areas - so the overall demand year-round is higher.   If you're going to base the capacity of a resort area on peak demand, as everybody does with the beach resorts, why shouldn't that apply to an area with year-round demand as well?

If we assume that RCI points values are valid within a given resort, and reflect the relative demand of differend weeks, then maybe we can start to compare.  If we look at DVC resorts, 9 weeks require 60% of the points required for a peak week - everything else is either 80% or peak weeks.  The rest of Orlando has those same 9 weeks at 60% plus five others in September.  All of these are rated as red weeks, but obviously "weak" red weeks.

Then if we look at BIS Duck and BIS Kitty Hawk, they have the same seasonal designations, and the same percentages week-to-week (Kitty hawk cost the same percentage more every week).  Red weeks at these resorts range from 65% of the peak points and up, White weeks 45-65%, Blue are 30-45%

Across the pond in the UK, where there aren't many points resorts to compare, I looked at Odessa Wharf, which is Red year round - ranging from 70% of the peak points to 100% within the resort.

Walton Hall is red year round - ranging up from 30% (wow!)

Haven Court, where 60% was still red, and 40% was still white.

To me, this says RCI is lookings at demand in a more broad spectrum.  Demand for January at Walton Hall is not anywhere near as high as summer, but still high enough to warant red designation.  The same applies to Orlando.  I think it also means that when RCI assigned colors, they may have given regional appeal more weight than system-wide appeal, knowing that in most cases, exchangers are going to want to vacation within their own broad regions, with an occasional exchange to other parts of the world.  Just as US members aren't as likely to want to visit Europe, since we often don't have 2-3 weeks to justify the long flight, European members aren't as likely to visit US destinations.  And when they do, they are not likely to want to visit the same resorts as US members - why spend that kind of money and time on a flight to the US to visit the beach, or ski, when similar or better options are closer to home?


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## Carolinian (Jul 6, 2010)

It does not matter if DEMAND of an area outstrips DEMAND in other areas.  What matters is if it outstrips SUPPLY in its own area.  In places like Orlando and the Canary Islands, it does.

Every broad area seems to have its overbuilt areas.  For the US market, RCI employee and TUGGER Bootleg long identified Branson, Orlando, Williamsburg, and Massanutten as those areas.  A look at the supply side in RCI's inventory shows the Canaries, Hungary, the Costa del Sol of Spain, and Finland to be those areas in Europe.  The Canaries mirror Orlando in many ways. . . warm all year, nice place, lots of demand, red all year, and even more timeshare supply than demand.

While local demand is indeed a big driver of overall demand, we cannot use tunnel vision of just that subset but must look at the totality of demand in the system.

As to beach areas, for some the slow winter period is probably roughly equivalent of hurricane season in Orlando.  As to some beach areas, Isle of Palms and Tybee Island being two that come to mind, occupancy rates are probably close to 100% yearround given how hard inventory is to find any time of the year there.  On the OBX, the resort where I served on the HOA BOD had essentially 100% occupancy from early March through Thanksgiving.

RCI Points are NOT valid within a given resort.  Overaveraging is rampant in RCI Points values because they use too few groupings of weeks.  Then there is the backroom deals that result in overpointing.  You yourself mentioned Vacation Village at Parkway in that regard.

As to color code seasonal designations, these were last updated many years ago for most if not all areas, indeed back when Crystal deHahn still ran the show.  They may have made since at one time, but not any more.  Longtime OBX timeshare reseller Marvin Beard used to talk about the early days of timesharing when it was hard to get into Orlando timeshares.  He says in those days, it was referred to as ''mouse front property''.  I guess red all year did make sense in those days.

The availibility tables which appear in some overseas versions of the RCI Directory reflecting total demand in the system compared to supply for each month of the year in each resort area is a much better indicator than rigged points numbers.  THose tables reflect yearround a much better demand over supply situation in South Africa than Orlando, for example.





Mel said:


> We're not forgetting those members at all.  I would venture to guess tham most RCI members in the western hemisphere tend to spend their vacations in the western hemisphere, and the same to apply to thos ein the eastern hemisphere.  Thus we must look at each independantly.  For those in the western hemisphere, the demand for Orlando outstrips everywhere else, particularly since timeshares here mostly marketed to families - either younger nuclear families, or grandparents traveling with their grandchildren or extended families.
> 
> Now compare Orlando to the many beach areas, most of which are highly seasonal.  During the peak weeks in Orlando, it is difficult to find a trade, unless you own a good trader - not everybody can trade into a peak week in Orlando.  The same is true of the beach resorts.  But then look at the slower seasons.  While there may always be units available, the occupancy rate during the slow season is much better than in those beach areas - so the overall demand year-round is higher.   If you're going to base the capacity of a resort area on peak demand, as everybody does with the beach resorts, why shouldn't that apply to an area with year-round demand as well?
> 
> ...


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## Lisa P (Jul 6, 2010)

Carolinian said:


> What you and some other Orlando owners tend to forget...
> 
> The demand in the entire system happens to include people you apparently forget: the Europeans and South Africans who are members of RCI and participate in the exchange system.



I don't own in FL.     Last I looked, Europeans and South Africans are also experiencing a reduction in distance and air travel due to the worldwide economic downturn too.  I haven't forgotten them.  They're fewer in numbers today.  Your perspective is valid but it's not the only valid viewpoint here.


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## brankatz (Jul 7, 2010)

Carolinian said:


> As to Orange Lake rentals, I had to search to find it and finally did under ''Holiday Inn Club at Orange Lake Resort'', but when I did I found 2BR rentals at East Village and West Village starting at $587.60 and 2BR rentals at North Village starting at $644.10.  As I understand it, in Florida taxes are seperate from m/f, so to really compare m/f's with other places you have to add m/f plus taxes.  I suspect that those rental costs are under m/f plus taxes for a 2BR unit, and certainly less than the m/f plus exchange fee someone would have to pay to trade in.



Where are you finding these deals as I would love to stay here for these prices but I checked Holiday Inn club at Orange Lake Resort and could find nothing less than 160 per night for a 2 br.  I am looking for a second week of August 14-21 and would love for you to send me a link to where I can get these prices.


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## Carolinian (Jul 7, 2010)

brankatz said:


> Where are you finding these deals as I would love to stay here for these prices but I checked Holiday Inn club at Orange Lake Resort and could find nothing less than 160 per night for a 2 br.  I am looking for a second week of August 14-21 and would love for you to send me a link to where I can get these prices.



I find the RCI rental prices on their European and North American boards are usually almost identical, but maybe you need to be looking at the RCI Europe site for this particular resort's rentals.  That's the site I access these days.


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## brankatz (Jul 7, 2010)

Just checked RCI and on the US side the only thing renting in that price range are studio's.


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## timeos2 (Jul 7, 2010)

*The demand and the desireablility favor Orlando*



brankatz said:


> Just checked RCI and on the US side the only thing renting in that price range are studio's.



It's easy to sit back & say "It's an easy/cheap trade/rental into Orlando" but a totally different situation if you want a certain resort/week/unit size / date. It's easy/cheap to get a beach side week in November too  because no one wants them (despite the overly optimistic claims of Carolinian that they are incrediby filled when you actually GO there the areas are basically shutdown except in the few prime weeks). Unlike those seasonal areas Orlando appeals to many even in the hurricane or otherwise "slow" periods - which in many cases travelors aren't even aware of - which STILL have 70% occupancy vs <30% in seasonal areas.  No matter how many times it gets repeated the desirability & thus demand for Orlando dwarfs most areas and thats what earns the red 52 week designation. Repeat the bromides all you want but you cannot just snap your fingers and trade in or rent what people want in Orlando at will. The best times book quickly and even the leftovers go for good $$. The real junk - and that can still be some resorts that would be top of the line in any other, less competitive area - can be had but the are a compromise from what most people think they will get in Orlando timeshares.  The bar is extremely high there.


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## MichaelColey (Jul 7, 2010)

timeos2 said:


> It's easy to sit back & say "It's an easy/cheap trade/rental into Orlando" but a totally different situation if you want a certain resort/week/unit size / date.


I just searched Orlando for 2BR+ units at Gold Crown resorts that are available as Extra Vacations, and I see tons of availability (24+ units) EVERY MONTH from now through December 2011.  Let me look at some specific high-demand weeks...

Nothing Christmas Week.

One unit available New Years Eve (Wyndham Bonnet Creek for $1140).

Units available every week in March and April 2011.

Units available every week in July and August 2011.

Now one observation I'm seeing is that is that there aren't a TON of units available.  For the massive number of units in Orlando, relatively few Gold Crown 2BR units are "extra".  IMHO, supply is not *much* higher than demand.


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## timeos2 (Jul 7, 2010)

*It's dollars and cents for most*



MichaelColey said:


> I just searched Orlando for 2BR+ units at Gold Crown resorts that are available as Extra Vacations, and I see tons of availability (24+ units) EVERY MONTH from now through December 2011.  Let me look at some specific high-demand weeks...
> 
> Nothing Christmas Week.
> 
> ...



So IF you plan over a YEAR ahead & pay MORE than the annual fee ($1140) you can get one week at BC. Other than that if you want Christmas week (and why that is SO popular is beyond me as the weather is iffy at best, the crowds unbearable and weeks on either side of that are actually discounted and are easy to get). What you see is that if you want the best resorts & times because that is the area you desire then, as in any other area, you own there or take your chances on an occasional visit when you stumble onto it. 

Again to say "it's easy/cheap anytime" is a fallacy despite the unquestioned massive amount of annual inventory out there. And to try to say it is somehow devalued when compared to the far less desirable majority of time that makes up the far more seasonal areas / overseas destinations is wishful thinking by those  travelers/owners. Yes there is demand for those areas but it is dwarfed by the innate desirability of a stay in Orlando as a nearly universally acceptable and relatively inexpensive trip option for most - especially that rather large group called families.  London, Paris or Orlando? 9 of 10 would opt for Orlando for cost and family interest. Those other highly prized locations are "special" type, usually extremely expensive and aren't an option for most.  Thus Orlando gets the edge despite the (hopefully slowing) propensity of developers to put their best efforts in the area they find easiest to sell & fill with willing travelers.


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## rickandcindy23 (Jul 7, 2010)

I am with you, John.  I cannot imagine going to Orlando over the holidays.  People are nuts to do that.  You cannot really even get good airfare the week before, either.  We were looking at 12/11-12/18, when Disney crowds are minimal, and we were shocked to see the airfare is crazy high for those dates from Denver, so we chose the week before that, and the airfare was much cheaper.  

You can put in a request for the holidays and probably get it.  I love weeks 1, 2 and 3, and week 49 for Orlando.  But you only get to see Osborne lights if you get there by January 4th or so.  They start lighting up for Christmas the second week of November.  That's the ideal time to go.


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## Mel (Jul 7, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> I just searched Orlando for 2BR+ units at Gold Crown resorts that are available as Extra Vacations, and I see tons of availability (24+ units) EVERY MONTH from now through December 2011.  Let me look at some specific high-demand weeks...
> 
> Nothing Christmas Week.
> 
> ...


There some Christmas weeks available:
   Our favorite resort, Vacation Village at Parkway, 2BR sleep 6 for $899.99
   Orange Lake West Village, 2BR Sleeps 8, $1149.99   
I didn't look anywhere else, but I'm sure there are a few.

As to the Weeks Carolinian is seeing as Extra Vacations at Orange Lake, there must be a different pricing structure on RCI Europe (don't really know why that would be, except that perhaps demand over there is lower than here...).  The cheapest 2BR Orange Lake week available in Extra Vacations is $849.99, which is more than $100 more than my maintenance fee.  And if you want Feb, March, June, July or August,you'll be paying more.   On the other hand, I can get a 2BR at Vacation Village for about $400 most weeks.  One would think if RCI thought they could get more for those Vacation Village weeks, they would be priced similar to the Orange Lake weeks - I guess not!


Maybe we should compare some of the rental prices for other areas between the two sites - both US and European destinations, to see if maybe there is a pattern.  Perhaps RCI really does segregate the exchange systems more than we thought.  Canadian members were often complaining how they didn't get the same benefits as US members - maybe European members are getting better rental rates than us.

I think the point about VV@Parkways lockoff units is key to their valuation - and perhaps also key to their oversupply.  I think if I were designing a point system now, I would take a few things into considerations:  

A two bedroom lockoff unit might be worth a bit more because of the ability to invite someone to join you, but lock your individual areas apart (though if you reserve as a single unit, the resort might not allow separate key codes), and also for any added unit amenities (an extra mini-kitchen in addition to the regular one - but that regular one might not really be designed to service the entire unit either).

But when balancing point assignments, I think I would give the individual 1BR (or studio) units slightly less than a traditional 1BR unit, because the lock-off feature also means a shared entry-way, and perhaps less soundproofing between the units.  If I'm exchanging into a 1BR unit, I would prefer a stond-alone unit.  

Perhaps the individual 1BR units would be given slightly lower values, but still high enough that the full unit is worth slightly more than a standard 2BR.

I suspect a large part of VV's oversupply is due to all the 1BR units.  I don't know many families that wish to exchange into a 1BR unit, yet I'm sure many VV units are deposited that way.  I know the BIS Kitty Hawk units are lock-offs too; maybe that's part of the issue with them as well.


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## bnoble (Jul 7, 2010)

> Christmas week (and why that is SO popular is beyond me





> I cannot imagine going to Orlando over the holidays



Some people with kids (i.e.: Disney's target market) still follow the quaint but antiquated custom of not pulling their kids out of school for vacations.


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## timeos2 (Jul 7, 2010)

*Why pay premium for not so certain time*



bnoble said:


> Some people with kids (i.e.: Disney's target market) still follow the quaint but antiquated custom of not pulling their kids out of school for vacations.



True - and a wise choice as well!  But picking Orlando in that specific time frame is what I don't get. If you're going to have to deal with the high demand/use times anyway why not go with a use time that is far more likely to have the weather people expect in FL. Far too often this s a period where is barely gets to a high of 60 - and lows can be near or at freezing - leading to big disappointment when a FL vacation means fun in the pool and at water parks, sun & warm temps.  To have spent the higher prices these types of peak times bring and then risk less than ideal weather as a normal part of the season just doesn't make sense to me.  

I'm willing to risk the heavily discounted times right around then if the school / family situation allows.  That can be a great. low cost time to visit and if it isn't perfect weather not much lost.  But if it's my one "big" splurge then Christmas and Orlando isn't the combo I'm going for.


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## bnoble (Jul 7, 2010)

For most people with kids, they have two main choices: Christmas, or Summer.  The weather sucks in Orlando during both of those times, but for different reasons.

We normally go down during late February/early March; the kids have a mid-winter break, and the University has its "Spring" break then.  Weather in O-town is still iffy, but you usually get at least 2-3 swimmable days during the week.  

The weeks used to be coordinated, but the school district adjusted its calendar, and the kids now have P-Week off, while I have the first or second week *after that*.  That leaves me with...Christmas and Summer.


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## Mel (Jul 7, 2010)

timeos2 said:


> True - and a wise choice as well!  But picking Orlando in that specific time frame is what I don't get. If you're going to have to deal with the high demand/use times anyway why not go with a use time that is far more likely to have the weather people expect in FL. Far too often this s a period where is barely gets to a high of 60 - and lows can be near or at freezing - leading to big disappointment when a FL vacation means fun in the pool and at water parks, sun & warm temps.  To have spent the higher prices these types of peak times bring and then risk less than ideal weather as a normal part of the season just doesn't make sense to me.
> 
> I'm willing to risk the heavily discounted times right around then if the school / family situation allows.  That can be a great. low cost time to visit and if it isn't perfect weather not much lost.  But if it's my one "big" splurge then Christmas and Orlando isn't the combo I'm going for.



I'm with you - though I skip Christmas because of the crowds, not the weather.  I think many people choose Christmas because they often have more than a full week away from school, plus the parents often get Christmas and New Year's Day off as holiday, so a week-long vacation doesn't eat us as many vacation days.  Add to that the"magic" of spending the holidays at Disney.  Plus, plenty of locals have those days off too - for those who have visited during Thanksgiving week, the impact of the locals having a holiday becomes obvious.  The days leading up to Thanksgiving are relatively slow, but the weekend following is very crowded.

If it weren't for the crowds, I could see us visiting at Christmas.  I don't care that much about swimming when we're visiting the parks - it takes time away from the parks.  Leave that for the next vacation at the beach!  

This shows precisely why Orlando has year-round appeal.  Families boost the demand during school vacations, but Disney and other area attractions have enough to offer other visitors, that they provide for plenty of demand during the rest of the year.  For us, the best time to visit would be the full week before thanksgiving (often week 46), because you get the tail end of the Food & Wine Festival, and the beginning of the Christmas celebrations, when the decorations go up.


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## "Roger" (Jul 7, 2010)

For the record, Disney World has the highest attendance Christmas week.

(For those who want to chime in "That is exactly why I won't go there then," remember  the old Yogi Berra line "No one goes there any more, it is too crowded.")


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## brankatz (Jul 7, 2010)

I actually will be going to Disney this Christmas with my 2 sons 6 and 10 not that we love fighting the crowds but not only are my kids in school but I also work in the school system. So for me the only time I can vacation is when school is on break also I will be interested to see all the festivities at Disney on Christmas. We will be at Fort Wilderness 12-18 12-25.


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## MichaelColey (Jul 7, 2010)

Count me in the group that would rather avoid the crowds rather than the weather.  I was at Disneyland six times last year.  One of those times was in January, which was great.  Decent weather (wished I had brought a jacket one day) and very small crowds.  One of the other times was during spring break (didn't even think about it!), and it was far busier.  The weather was better, but we didn't get to do as much.  This year, we went to Disneyland Paris in January.  It snowed on us.  But we were able to WALK ON virtually every ride.  My son and I rode Space Mountain three times in a row with no wait.  I have a picture of the "line" (about eight people) at It's a Small World.  My daughter and I rode Tower of Terror something like half a dozen times in a row with no wait.

We usually schedule our vacations during the off season because we have the flexibility to do so, the crowds are smaller, and the costs are usually less.


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## "Roger" (Jul 8, 2010)

brankatz said:


> I actually will be going to Disney this Christmas with my 2 sons 6 and 10 not that we love fighting the crowds but not only are my kids in school but I also work in the school system. So for me the only time I can vacation is when school is on break also I will be interested to see all the festivities at Disney on Christmas. We will be at Fort Wilderness 12-18 12-25.


The week before Christmas is not that bad.  It is the week between Christmas and New Years that has the highest attendance.


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## timeos2 (Jul 8, 2010)

"Roger" said:


> The week before Christmas is not that bad.  It is the week between Christmas and New Years that has the highest attendance.



The week before Christmas (up to the 23rd usually) is actually a great time. It is about as slow attendance as you'll find.  Then the explosion hits for a week + and goes out like a light bulb 1/1. It is amazing to see.  That week before has all the shows, lights, etc and none of the crowds. If you can do that and don't mind the rather iffy weather its a great week to use.


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## RedDogSD (Jul 9, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> I was at Disneyland six times last year.  One of those times was in January, which was great.  Decent weather (wished I had brought a jacket one day) and very small crowds.  .



You mean RELATIVELY small crowds.  Small crowds do not exist at Disneyland any longer since they allowed financing of the annual pass.  In the past, since the annual pass cost $150-$450, many familiies could not come up with that much coin in a single transaction.  Now, you can finance it for $12 - $40/month.  Everyone can afford that.  So, the place is always a zoo now.  We let our passes expire last June and that will be the end for awhile.

Knotts Berry Farm, Magic Mountain, Sea World...all of those places have empty parks during many months of the year and you can really enjoy yourself.


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## MichaelColey (Aug 9, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> 3) It looks like I can exchange the 1BR (or 2BR) side of my Summer Bay Resort for a 3BR at the same. Lots of weeks are available.


Okay, I just have to admit that I just did this with one of my 1BR deposits.  I exchanged it for a 3BR (10/12) for next Fall, checking in two weeks before our annual passes will expire.  I figure we can find some friends or family interested in going with us for the week, and then I'll try to exchange into a DVC or other nicer resort for the week before or after to make our stay two weeks.

We'll end up getting six weeks out of our annual passes (two annual two-week trips, slightly less than a year apart, plus another two week trip in the middle), then probably wait about a year before doing it again.


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## rickandcindy23 (Aug 9, 2010)

MichaelColey said:


> and then I'll try to exchange into a DVC or other nicer resort for the week before or after to make our stay two weeks.



I thought you didn't want to exchange into DVC.   I understand it, truly I do, and once you experience the ease of going in and out of the parks with their transportation, there is no going back.  Well, I shouldn't say that, because most of our exchanges are still to area resorts, particularly the Marriotts and Hiltons, and we also love Vistana Villages.  

The really annoying thing about DVC is the lack of television stations.  We have been so bored with the lack of selection.  They don't have much.  Quite a few religions channels (okay but how much can you watch?).  Disney channels galore, selling their DVC points and advertisng the parks.  ESPN channels.  Ho hum!  I think they have CNN, but not sure.... I miss my Fox News while there.  

Rick loves DVC too and wishes they would change that one thing about the resorts.  More television choices would be ideal.  

We are staying at Grand Beach next time, two weeks, and I had lots of DVC choices, but Rick said to save the RCI Points and get us some television.  :rofl: Free internet would be nice.  I wonder if they have free internet at GB?


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## MichaelColey (Aug 9, 2010)

I don't think I said I didn't want DVC, just that it wasn't worth considerably more to me.  And it wasn't more.  My cost was $270 (half of a $540 maintenance fee on a lockoff unit) + $179 (exchange fee) + $95 (Disney resort fee), or a total of $544 for the week.

If I had got the same 2BR unit renting from Disney, it would have been $6500 (rack rate), or $3900 with a 40% off disney (the best I've seen).  If I had got it as a DVC member, the maintenance fees alone would have been about $1250 (on top of about a $20k initial investment).  If I had got the week through RCI Points and value the points at a penny each, it would have been about $1300.  I don't think it would be worth any of those amounts, personally, when I could get another good quality unit for $250 - $600.

With a family of five (including a newborn), a stroller, a backpack, and a diaper bag, Disney Transportation just isn't that appealing.  We'll either drive or have a rental car.  We don't watch TV, so that downside won't affect us at all.  About the only perks we'll get from DVC will be the magic of being on site, the proximity, and possibly taking advantage of the dining plan (about $850 for a week for 2 adults and 2 kids).  We might not even do that.


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## rickandcindy23 (Aug 9, 2010)

I am a Disney nut, but I am not fond of Disney food.  Some people just love the DDP, but for us, after trying it once, it was blah.  And we were always going to a particular park, specifically to eat.  That makes eating on vacation a major priority, when actually it isn't usually a priority for us.  Know what I mean?  

We take a cooler with canned sodas with us to the parks, and we take snacks, too, so we can stay in a park longer before we get hungry for something good to eat.  Sometimes we even take sandwiches to avoid the burgers and other fast food places.  We have actually made a roast during the winter and fall trips, and then we have two dinners with it, complete with mashed potatoes and a big salad.  Then we have several sandwiches with the leftovers. We take aluminum foil with us, buy the roast and bake it all day in the oven on low, and we come back to a delicious aroma in the kitchen.  Peel a few potatoes, and 45 minutes later--dinner!  

The sandwiches are the best part.  We stop at the Disney FF places with lettuce, tomatoes, mayo and such.  We enjoy those sandwiches and potato chips much more than the burgers you buy.  We love Pecos Bills and the America Pavillion for sandwich fixin's.   

Okay, so some people will hate that we do that.:rofl: Oh, well. 

Michael, you are so much smarter than most newbies.  I think you have learned more about timeshare than most anyone else here, in that short time period.  The only one that probably matches you in timeshare savvy, and in getting it all right away, is Boca Bum.


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## MichaelColey (Aug 9, 2010)

rickandcindy23 said:


> I am a Disney nut, but I am not fond of Disney food. Some people just love the DDP, but for us, after trying it once, it was blah. And we were always going to a particular park, specifically to eat. That makes eating on vacation a major priority, when actually it isn't usually a priority for us. Know what I mean?


There are people who *don't* make eating on a vacation a major priority?  LOL.  It's always a central part of any trip we take.  If we go to Chicago, we have to have Chicago style pizza, Chicago style hot dogs, and other favorites.  Vegas is a culinary delight.  If we go to Key West, we have to have Key Lime Pie.  Boston...  Speed's Hot Dogs.  Maryland...  Crabs.  Maine...  Lobster.  Springfield, MO...  Springfield Style Cashew Chicken.  San Antonio...  Tex Mex.  Portland, OR...  Salmon.  New York...  Delis, pizza, certain street carts, and more.  Oahu...  Alan Wong's and a ton of other places.  Jamaica...  Jerk Chicken.  Italy...  Pizza, pasta, cappuccinos and pastries.  When we go to WDW (or at least this has been the case with the free dining promotion...), it's the nicer Disney restaurants.

If you're eating in the parks, I can understand why you're not impressed with the food.  Most of the food in the parks *is* blah.  Most (but not all) of the best restaurants are at the resorts.  Of the 12 dinners we have booked for our next trip, only 5 of them are in the parks (and two of those are Le Cellier).


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