# Stock Market: Anybody Selling?



## Passepartout (Feb 27, 2020)

Might be too late, but my accounts have been pretty defensive anyway. There have been losses, but nowhere close to the averages.

Jim


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## #1 Cowboys Fan (Feb 27, 2020)

I was thinking of posting something; figured someone would.

I am positioned conservatively, and plan to change that later.

Now, I'll wait until the dust settles with what's going on.

I have done a TERRIBLE job of timing the market over the last dozen years-----maybe I'll do better THIS time---haha!!


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## bizaro86 (Feb 27, 2020)

I've been taking cash and adding to stock positions in quality companies. Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett's company) has huge cash balances and is very conservatively positioned. A selloff probably helps them because they can use their cash on new investments.


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## Bucky (Feb 27, 2020)

Been waiting to buy the dip. When it finally bottoms I’m ready.


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## easyrider (Feb 27, 2020)

I think 3m will do well. MMM. I went to Home Depot for some things I needed for a project and all of the respirators were gone. 

Bill


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## GetawaysRus (Feb 27, 2020)

This market isn't fun, but I bought some today.

I'm generally fairly conservative and have a significant number of tax-free muni bonds in my state (California). Bond yields have gotten so low that I haven't been able to find any attractive bonds in months. More and more of my bonds are getting called. In a "normal" market, I would just reinvest in new bonds, but not now. So cash has been piling up.

So I've been looking at alternatives to bonds, and I've had a few closed end funds on my radar that pay decent monthly dividends.  These got creamed today.  I bought one at a yield of 7.3% and another at a yield of 7.5%. Also, if you follow CEFs, I was able to purchase at a reasonable discount compared to their historic averages. I'm planning to just hold these and reinvest the dividends so that they compound over time. Even if the market keeps going down, I'm happy with those yields (if they hold long term...) and would possibly buy more.

It's helpful that trade commissions are now zero at so many brokerages. It makes it less costly to dollar average in.

I don't think I will adjust my overall investment allocation.  I can't time the market either. Hold on tight and ride the wave...


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## bizaro86 (Feb 27, 2020)

Bucky said:


> Been waiting to buy the dip. When it finally bottoms I’m ready.



How will you know it's bottomed?


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## VacationForever (Feb 27, 2020)

Nope, other than my husband's RMD which comes as a monthly payment.  Since our money managers keep about 5% of the investment as cash, they can use that for RMD each month.  I made the decision long ago to always keep a chunk of cash in a savings account so we never need to liquidate in a down market should we need money.


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## bbodb1 (Feb 27, 2020)

*Sell golden April at 142!*


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## bbodb1 (Feb 27, 2020)

On a more useful note, I will channel REO Speedwagon and:


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## bluehende (Feb 27, 2020)

I sold a couple weeks ago and did nibble back in today with some roth cash.  Bought qqq on the close.  Interesting that it took 2 1/2 minutes to fill a market order.  I cann't complain as it was 1/2 percent lower on close than when I put in the order.  MERS and SARS both took the market down 12 % right about where we are.

I expected to buy tomorrow, but this looked like a pretty good blowoff


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## GetawaysRus (Feb 27, 2020)

bizaro86 said:


> How will you know it's bottomed?


This is one of the 2 things that I would like TUGgers to clue me in on. After all, TUGgers seem to know everything.

The other: the location of the fountain of youth.


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## Rolltydr (Feb 27, 2020)

Passepartout said:


> Might be too late, but my accounts have been pretty defensive anyway. There have been losses, but nowhere close to the averages.
> 
> Jim


I got out of the equities market a few years ago so I’m somewhat protected from the worst of the volatility. I‘m retired now and I hate for those close to retirement see their savings lose this much value. And I just saw that the medical experts now have to run any information they want to provide the public through Pence’s office. So now, your hurricane tracking and deadly virus information must come from a politician, not the meteorologists or medical professionals. Feel better?


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## easyrider (Feb 27, 2020)

bizaro86 said:


> How will you know it's bottomed?



I think its called algorithm trading. Supposedly the Dow should have topped out at near 30,000 but politics and corona virus has caused the top. It was a good ride.

Bill


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## Brett (Feb 27, 2020)

Bucky said:


> Been waiting to buy the dip. When it finally bottoms I’m ready.



Please let us know a (few days before) the stock market finally hits bottom


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## Brett (Feb 27, 2020)

easyrider said:


> I think its called algorithm trading. Supposedly the Dow should have topped out at near 30,000 but politics and corona virus has caused the top. It was a good ride.
> 
> Bill



I heard the stock market was supposed to top out at 50,000
a real shame that only "politics", algorithms and a virus determines stock prices


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## pittle (Feb 27, 2020)

We took this year's withdrawal from our IRA in early January when the markets were high and even some extra a few weeks later in a big surge. We moved it all into a savings account that we take a monthly withdrawal from. Right now we have just a little less in the IRA, than we did in February 2019, but have enough money in savings for close to 2 years living expenses (after taxes were paid). So, now we can just wait it out.  In the 18 years we have been living on our investments, there have been peaks and valleys and we survived.


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## bnoble (Feb 27, 2020)

I’m 15 to 20 years from retirement. Maybe more. I continue to buy index funds via automatic deduction, and continue to recycle the statements unopened.


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## artringwald (Feb 27, 2020)

If Covid-19 starts spreading in the US, I'll wait until it stops before buying. Otherwise, I'll wait until a week can go by without the SP500 going down,


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## CalGalTraveler (Feb 27, 2020)

For those who read the Wall St. Journal, there is an interesting article today about how large funds must sell and smaller investors don't. (Note: unfortunately it's behind a subscriber wall).









						The Pros Have to Sell Stocks Now. You Don’t.
					

When markets crumple, the culprits usually aren’t the smallest investors, but the biggest.




					www.wsj.com
				




BTW...I would expect that drug companies, surgical mask makers, and in-home items such as Netflix, Zoom (video conferencing), and exercise equipment would fare well in this new economy.


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## Brett (Feb 27, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> For those who read the Wall St. Journal, there is an interesting article today about how large funds must sell and smaller investors don't. (Note: unfortunately it's behind a subscriber wall).
> 
> 
> 
> ...



right, some pros (institutions) have to sell, you don't - unless you need the money now


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## GetawaysRus (Feb 27, 2020)

easyrider said:


> I think its called algorithm trading.
> Bill


I do think that computer algorithms  and computerized trading contribute to some of these major swings we see, both up and down.

Basically, whenever I find myself thinking " What the hel... is going on with the stock market," I assume it's computers doing it.

But I try to look on the bright side. At least it's not aliens controlling the stock market ( or is it??).


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## Brett (Feb 27, 2020)

GetawaysRus said:


> I do think that computer algorithms  and computerized trading contribute to some of these major swings we see, both up and down.
> 
> Basically, whenever I find myself thinking " What the hel... is going on with the stock market," I assume it's computers doing it.
> 
> But I try to look on the bright side. At least it's not aliens controlling the stock market ( or is it??).



yes, look on the bright side of things
Aliens (extraterrestrial or across border) are probably not controlling the stock market


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## bbodb1 (Feb 27, 2020)

DCA continues to be my friend.....


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 27, 2020)

bbodb1 said:


> DCA continues to be my friend.....



Me too. Consistent monthly saving over the long haul wins the race. Get rich slowly.


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## easyrider (Feb 27, 2020)

Brett said:


> I heard the stock market was supposed to top out at 50,000
> a real shame that only "politics", algorithms and a virus determines stock prices



The algorithm going around last fall was a Dow 30,000 top. We didn't get that top because politics and the corona virus will soon affect GDP. For the most part it's GDP that affects price.

Bill


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## easyrider (Feb 27, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Me too. Consistent monthly saving over the long haul wins the race. Get rich slowly.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



DCA seems to work only if the products you buy are up when you need it. It doesn't protect your product price at all. I know many people that had problems retiring in the 2008 drop that contributed every paycheck to their retirement funds. I guess DCA works if you keep your eyes open near retirement. Most of my friends are about to retire and they watch their portfolios hard.

I read today that the VIX was now over 39 and VIX forcast is going up. A VIX of 12 is low, a VIX of 20 is high, a VIX in between 12 and 20 is normal. Based on VIX it seems like it's time to check the tomatoes. 

Bill


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## VacationForever (Feb 27, 2020)

Hence we put part of our investments into deferred income annuities.  We get paid the same regardless how the market performs.


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## pedro47 (Feb 27, 2020)

Now is the time to buy.


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 27, 2020)

easyrider said:


> DCA seems to work only if the products you buy are up when you need it. It doesn't protect your product price at all. I know many people that had problems retiring in the 2008 drop that contributed every paycheck to their retirement funds. I guess DCA works if you keep your eyes open near retirement. Most of my friends are about to retire and they watch their portfolios hard.
> 
> I read today that the VIX was now over 39 and VIX forcast is going up. A VIX of 12 is low, a VIX of 20 is high, a VIX in between 12 and 20 is normal. Based on VIX it seems like it's time to check the tomatoes.
> 
> Bill



I hear you.

Here’s my case. I have been saving no less than 500 a month since I was 20. Some years I saved 5 k a month. I have a team now of excellent advisors at 2 main banks who deal fully with it. I found once I hit over 1 MM, that’s when the great service started. Before that, I just put the money into 4 mutual funds, that being, growth, balanced, aggressive growth and international. Today, the strategies they employ are much more complicated.

I am 55 now.

Result? Today’s total is 8.9 MM. yes, down 102 k. I’m not worried.

Still, time and get rich slowly has worked for me in up and down markets. Currently, I am still putting in 4 k a month.

In 2008, I still weathered the storm. Yes, it was rough but in the end all come up better than ever.

I suppose those near retirement hovers around 1 M may be more concerned though.

Thanks for the VIX. I learned something new today 




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## Fredflintstone (Feb 27, 2020)

BTW, here is a recent article on the VIX from seekingalpha I thought you would enjoy. It mirrors your views @easyrider.




			https://seekingalpha.com/article/4327839-easy-vix-when-will-be-safe-to-go-back-in-water
		



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## geekette (Feb 28, 2020)

easyrider said:


> I think 3m will do well. MMM. I went to Home Depot for some things I needed for a project and all of the respirators were gone.
> 
> Bill


HD just announced 10% dividend hike.  I've owned them since 2010 and what an amazing run, both in share price and div raises.  MMM is one of my most favorite companies ever. Not ever selling them.


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## geekette (Feb 28, 2020)

GetawaysRus said:


> This is one of the 2 things that I would like TUGgers to clue me in on. After all, TUGgers seem to know everything.
> 
> The other: the location of the fountain of youth.


Ah, Tuggers are indeed a wise bunch, however, nobody knows where the bottom is until after it happens.

FOY, still looking ...


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## geekette (Feb 28, 2020)

I am long term buy and hold div investor.  Nothing has changed.  Since I own individual companies, and a lot of them, no significant change to portfolio value.  Down market does help my div dollars buy more shares, so, I keep doing what I do.  If I needed money, I could take the dividends in cash.  If I needed A LOT OF MONEY, I could sell shares and still profit.  This is the real value of long term holdings, I have share prices from the 90s onward, most prices today are well more than where I bought.   

Meanwhile, market price does not impact company earnings.  Dividends keep getting paid, div raises keep being announced.  Plenty of raises in the past many months past 10%.   Taking my money out would be my foregoing making more money on my money.  

It's about well more than stock price for me.  Prices sinking is actually a big help to me.  I may already be retired and not sweating this at all.


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## emoneybug (Feb 28, 2020)

Yep keep on buying until we get past 50 then each year move a % to safer investments.


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## turkel (Feb 28, 2020)

I was a buyer. Still 7 years away from access to my 401 k. I usually check my balance daily. After the first down day I stopped looking, but I will continue to add and no plans to sell. Lost 50% in 2008 good times since than. Keeping with the plan.


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## PigsDad (Feb 28, 2020)

Not changing anything here -- will continue with the twice-monthly buys in our 401k's.  We did our 2020 funding of our IRAs in January but held off investing those funds then because I was waiting for a dip in the market.  Invested a good portion of those funds today.  We're still at least 8-10 years from needing to tap any retirement savings, so not worried.

Kurt


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## Brett (Feb 28, 2020)

there were some stock market winners this week


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## CalGalTraveler (Feb 28, 2020)

LOL Clorox and pizza delivery of course!


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## Big Matt (Feb 28, 2020)

This is a great opportunity to buy.  Basically the market has been riding high on earnings projections.  We will see when Q1 earnings come out how much of a real hit there is.  3-6 months from now we should be back to where we were a week ago.


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## CalGalTraveler (Feb 28, 2020)

I do think the market will rebound but I give it more than 3 - 6 months. Prob more like 1 - 2 years until this settles down.


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

People still making money on shorts and puts. Actually just learned my financial advisors have puts bought in January. So, they said I could Actually make money while the blood letting continues.

I’m such a dummy when it comes to financial. That’s why I hire folks who know what they are doing.


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## CalGalTraveler (Feb 28, 2020)

CNBC yesterday said that the U.S. economy has largely been growing because of consumer confidence and spend. Manufacturing has not seen much growth.  If consumers are staying home, they will not be spending on travel, restaurants and if they are not going out they don't need new clothes etc.. People's portfolios have taken a significant hit over the past few days. People could get laid off as consumer demand softens and economic pundits are discussing recession. This could hurt economic growth for a while.


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## Brett (Feb 28, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I hear you.
> 
> Here’s my case. I have been saving no less than 500 a month since I was 20. Some years I saved 5 k a month. I have a team now of excellent advisors at 2 main banks who deal fully with it. I found once I hit over 1 MM, that’s when the great service started. Before that, I just put the money into 4 mutual funds, that being, growth, balanced, aggressive growth and international. Today, the strategies they employ are much more complicated.
> 
> ...



I think if I had $9 million I'd just cash in and retire. .......  wait, I'm already retired. 
Then I'd get winter and summer retirement places


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

Brett said:


> I think if I had $9 million I'd just cash in and retire. ....... wait, I'm already retired.
> Then I'd get winter and summer retirement places



Lol. I am moving to part time in April. 

Call it strange. I was raised very poor and gave always had a fear of being poor again. So, I keep building. My advisors think I should spend but I just can’t get myself to do it. Time to see a shrink? 


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## Rolltydr (Feb 28, 2020)

Or just share with some of us. We’ll be glad to help you out! 


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Or just share with some of us. We’ll be glad to help you out!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Awww, but that’s in CDN funds. I’d be a lot poorer if I convert to USD. 


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## bogey21 (Feb 28, 2020)

One of the best decisions I ever made was taking the Annuity (monthly Pension payments) rather than a lump sum when I retired 20 some years ago.  Flippantly I will say that not worrying about the market has added years to my life...

George


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

The beautiful thing about the US and Canada Is almost everyone can retire a millionaire if they start saving early, are consistent and think long haul.

Where I kick myself is I didn’t take advantage of the housing crisis and buy homes in the US in 2009. I have friends who did. They bought beautiful foreclosed homes in Vegas and California and have made a killing if they sold them. Palm Springs is little Canada and many Canadians have made a fortune on their properties.

I just have a modest home and now a cheap retreat located literally 300 feet from the US border. I still feel blessed.


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## 1Kflyerguy (Feb 28, 2020)

No changes to my portfolio.  I do check the value frequently, probably at least weekly.     I have to 10 to 12 years to retirement, so while i like it better when the market goes up, not too worried just yet.  

At this point a recession with lots of layoffs in the tech world would be a bigger concern for me than market volatility.


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

bogey21 said:


> One of the best decisions I ever made was taking the Annuity (monthly Pension payments) rather than a lump sum when I retired 20 some years ago. Flippantly I will say that not worrying about the market has added years to my life...
> 
> George



That was smart. Kind of like a pension plan. I did that for mom and dad years ago. Dad has since passed but I’m glad mom has steady income. I always said that my mom and dad will be set up so they don’t have to live poor anymore.

I think I will set up a foundation at some point and give bursaries to those kids who were raised poor and want to get out. I am looking into that now. 


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

1Kflyerguy said:


> No changes to my portfolio. I do check the value frequently, probably at least weekly. I have to 10 to 12 years to retirement, so while i like it better when the market goes up, not too worried just yet.
> 
> At this point a recession with lots of layoffs in the tech world would be a bigger concern for me than market volatility.



Yes, stay the course. You will get there in the end. 


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## Rolltydr (Feb 28, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Awww, but that’s in CDN funds. I’d be a lot poorer if I convert to USD.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



Yeah, we’ve been thinking of moving to Canada. If it just wasn’t so dang cold! Might be worth it to escape the chaos though. I’ll check back with you later this year. 


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## CO skier (Feb 28, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> This is a great opportunity to buy.  Basically the market has been riding high on earnings projections.  We will see when Q1 earnings come out how much of a real hit there is.  3-6 months from now we should be back to where we were a week ago.





CalGalTraveler said:


> I do think the market will rebound but I give it more than 3 - 6 months. Prob more like 1 - 2 years until this settles down.


Here is a chart I put together because I have not seen this comparison on any of the media outlets.  SPY is the Exchange Traded Fund that roughly tracks the unmanaged S&P 500 Index.

September 1, 2000 – January 30, 2002

August 11, 2008 – December 30, 2009

February 19, 2020 -- February 28, 2020

There were quite a few false "V-shaped recoveries" on the way to the bottom when the recoveries really began.  Something to think about before jumping back into this market or selectively "buying the dips."

The chart includes the approx. current SPY value of 290.

I am solidly in the "months to recover" camp, and from lows well below current levels.  We shall see.  If I remember, maybe I will update the chart from time to time during the year to see when/if the market returns to setting records.


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## VacationForever (Feb 28, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Awww, but that’s in CDN funds. I’d be a lot poorer if I convert to USD.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Still... USD 6.6M.  You can share and still retire.


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## tompalm (Feb 28, 2020)

Sold in January and watched my funds go up 3-4 percent after I sold.  I was in technology and growth and now, they are all down a lot from where I sold.  I started buying in yesterday and it looks like that was too early. I still have 80 percent cash and regret buying anything. I think we will see a bounce soon. If the market is like the 2018 sell off in Jan-March, it will take a few months for the market to settle down. The bottom might be another 10 percent lower from here, but I don’t think it will go that low. It difficult to call a bottom and best to not make any moves right now. The VIX hit 49 today and coming back down. So the professional traders are starting to be less negative and that is a positive sign the market is ready for a bounce. But, until earnings come out in March, expect more volatility.


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Yeah, we’ve been thinking of moving to Canada. If it just wasn’t so dang cold! Might be worth it to escape the chaos though. I’ll check back with you later this year.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Actually 55 degrees today. Yes canada can get cold BUT where i live we get chinooks so temps can go from minus 20 to 50 plus within hours. Usually get 3 weeks of bitter cold then all is tolerable at 40 to 55 degrees. Summers here are awesome. Not to hot or cold. Between 70 to 90 degrees. 


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

VacationForever said:


> Still... USD 6.6M. You can share and still retire.



Yup. If i can create a legacy and pull many kids out of poverty, i will say life well served. 


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## rapmarks (Feb 28, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Yup. If i can create a legacy and pull many kids out of poverty, i will say life well served.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


A fellow I taught with, single, a great guy, everyone in his family financially sound, wants to amass at least a million to endow scholarships for the students at the school where we taught.  A great guy.


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

tompalm said:


> Sold in January and watched my funds go up 3-4 percent after I sold. I was in technology and growth and now, they are all down a lot from where I sold. I started buying in yesterday and it looks like that was too early. I still have 80 percent cash and regret buying anything. I think we will see a bounce soon. If the market is like the 2018 sell off in Jan-March, it will take a few months for the market to settle down. The bottom might be another 10 percent lower from here, but I don’t think it will go that low. It difficult to call a bottom and best to not make any moves right now. The VIX hit 49 today and coming back down. So the professional traders are starting to be less negative and that is a positive sign the market is ready for a bounce. But, until earnings come out in March, expect more volatility.



Your timing couldnt be better. I know from my advisors that they saw cracks about a month ago so they loaded up on puts and shorts. I guess if you are dumb on investing simply tag on those who know what they are doing 


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## Rolltydr (Feb 28, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Actually 55 degrees today. Yes canada can get cold BUT where i live we get chinooks so temps can go from minus 20 to 50 plus within hours. Usually get 3 weeks of bitter cold then all is tolerable at 40 to 55 degrees. Summers here are awesome. Not to hot or cold. Between 70 to 90 degrees.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


What a coincidence. It is 55 degrees here right now. I’m sure I could handle the winter up there at least as well as I handle the summers here. I hate it when it gets into the 90’s and triple digits and it’s pretty much that way May-September. It sucks!


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## CalGalTraveler (Feb 28, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Here is a chart I put together because I have not seen this comparison on any of the media outlets.  SPY is the Exchange Traded Fund that roughly tracks the unmanaged S&P 500 Index.
> 
> September 1, 2000 – January 30, 2002
> 
> ...



Interesting chart. If I read this correctly:

2000 dip still wasn't on clear path to recovery after 1 year 4 months.

2008 dip was well onto recovery after 1 year 4 months

2020 dip is small in comparison which either leaves much more room to drop (with V recoveries to the bottom) or this will be a correction with short recovery. (who knows?)


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

rapmarks said:


> A fellow I taught with, single, a great guy, everyone in his family financially sound, wants to amass at least a million to endow scholarships for the students at the school where we taught. A great guy.



Only my belief but I believe one is blessed because God knows you will help others greatly at some point. There are a lot of great, wealthy folks out there. Just looking at the Bill and Melinda Foundation and the large number of giving pledges will tell one that. Nothing is more satisfying when you see your help made a life changing difference for someone else. It’s what makes living rich in my view.


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## CO skier (Feb 28, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Interesting chart. If I read this correctly:
> 
> 2000 dip still wasn't on clear path to recovery after 1 year 4 months.
> 
> ...


The 2020 dip appears small because it is only a little over a week of data.  The selloff from last Friday to yesterday does hold the record for the least amount of days to a 10% correction.  I would not characterize that as a small dip.

Yesterday, Goldman Sachs issued a report suggesting no growth in S&P companies' earnings for the rest of this year.  Today, Barclay's issued a report suggesting negative 2% "growth" in S&P 500 earnings and lowered the end of year S&P 500 target from 3300 to 3000.  The S&P closed just under 3000 yesterday.  If this proves true, much lower stock prices may be expected over the next few months, and a return to record highs is easily more than a year away.









						Barclays cuts S&P 500 2020 target, says it's 'too early to buy the dip'
					

"The repercussions of the shock to the Chinese economy that has already happened to the rest of the world will not be insignificant," the strategist said.




					www.cnbc.com
				




This week's selloff takes the stock market back only to the levels at the beginning of December, 2019 when 2020 earnings growth was rosy.

Both the 2000 and 2008 bear markets reached more than a 25% decline from the starting top in the chart.  That would put the indexes 15% below current levels sometime during the next 6 -8 months, if this decline rhymes with the other two.

It will be interesting.


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## caribbeanqueen (Feb 28, 2020)

No staying the course. This wont last forever. Once things bottom out there should be many buying. When will that be? Watch the business stations and they will help guide you.


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

The thing that might add fuel to the fire on this market is margin calls. Those people who borrowed to the nines could receive quite a haircut if they don’t or can’t cover.


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## Talent312 (Feb 28, 2020)

I'm gonna use the ignore-for-a-month strategy, with one exception:
I may sell a couple of bonds and invest the proceeds in cheap stocks.
.


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## Fredflintstone (Feb 28, 2020)

Talent312 said:


> I'm gonna use the ignore-for-a-month strategy, with one exception:
> I may sell a couple of bonds and invest the proceeds in cheap stocks.
> .



That’s a good plan. You could also look at shorting or puts if you see this prolonged.

I think we were due for this. Almost 30 k DOW is high. Things just kept going up with no correction. My advisors say you need correction to shake out weak holders thus strengthening the stocks.


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## geekette (Feb 28, 2020)

easyrider said:


> The algorithm going around last fall was a Dow 30,000 top. We didn't get that top because politics and the corona virus will soon affect GDP. *For the most part it's GDP that affects price.*
> 
> Bill


I don't think so but I'd sure listen to an explanation.  

Dow is a mere 30 stocks, and not quite the intended basket it began as.   Nonetheless, each of those 30 would have to be affected by the GDP, and how would that happen?  How does GDP affect the purchase of P&G products, say diapers and food products?  If I need toothpaste, I'm buying some.  I'm not doing without.  I'm not checking GDP before I buy, and most likely, there will be ample supply of toothpaste.  

The market runs on investor speculation.  people get spooked, pull money out, demand for Stock X drops, price of Stock X drops.  Usually having nothing to do with profitability of Company X underlying Stock X.  The big run up was the reverse - oh boy, times are good, get into the market!  keep buying stuff so earnings of companies remain high!  Get more, the party is still going!

Fear and greed have much to do with where the Dow sits.  It is investors that move supply and demand.   My selling 10 shares of PG does nothing.   Fidelity selling 10000000 shares could send the price down.  Then the herd finds out that oh no, PG is dropping!  I'd better sell now!   On and on it goes, feeding on fears and confidences, up and down, forever more.


----------



## easyrider (Feb 28, 2020)

geekette said:


> I don't think so but I'd sure listen to an explanation.



Lower GDP indicates that businesses are spending less. Here is an Investopedia link.

Bill









						How the Stock Market Affects GDP
					

Stock markets can affect gross domestic product (GDP) since market rallies and corrections impact consumer confidence, which drives spending and GDP.




					www.investopedia.com
				




The *stock market's impact* on *GDP* is less discussed than the *effect* of *GDP* on the *stock market*. When *GDP* rises, corporate earnings increase, which makes it bullish for *stocks*. The inverse occurs when *GDP* falls, leading to less spending by businesses and consumers, which drives the markets lower .


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## geekette (Feb 28, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I guess if you are dumb on investing simply tag on those who know what they are doing


I would definitely advise against doing that!   If you don't understand what you own and why, it's not going to end well.   If you mean, "let someone that understands do it for you" then I agree.   I am advising against Copy Catting.  My sister doesn't understand, doesn't Want to understand, so someone manages her money.  No problem whatsoever with that.  She sleeps well at night and they get paid to keep her on track and calm.  

If one is "dumb" on investing, there are remedies.  Study.  It is possible to understand, and one does not have to be brilliant nor financial whiz.   Time consuming, tho, so I'd say next best is simply buy index funds and stay there.   Don't buy a fund of funds, it adds layers of expenses and prevents ability to see what's in it.  There are so many good funds, there is no reason to buy a packet of them when you can do that yourself.  

When you open the hood of many funds, you'll see the same big names the DIY stock owner has.   A person that has owned funds for years and thinks, maybe I want to own a company directly, can get great ideas by just looking at the holdings of the top funds and understanding what a company does, how it makes its money, what its risks are.   I am a proponent of learn by doing.  Buy a few shares, see what happens over 6 months or a year.  Just don't tell yourself that a mistake makes you a bad investor.  I have made mistakes, and I will make more.  Learning from mistakes is the key.  Just like with everything else.

Used to be, a person wasn't necessarily an investor, but those days are gone.  Pensions are gone, replaced by 401ks.  If you need better than bank and CD rates, you're probably an investor.   I understand bonds, just don't buy them.   I am better suited to risks and rewards of equities.   My biggest piece of advice is to understand what you own.   It does not have to be mind-numbing probing into every nook and cranny, unless that is the only way to comfort in owning.


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## geekette (Feb 28, 2020)

easyrider said:


> Lower GDP indicates that businesses are spending less. Here is an Investopedia link.
> 
> Bill
> 
> ...


Excellent explanation!  I'm not quite onboard with it, but a great explanation.  

Most companies and consumers do not check GDP nor stock market before making purchases.  There are a lot of independent moving parts, and consumers are the biggest wildcard.  GDP rises because of measured increase in output.   Output does not automatically sink when stock market does but would on less business spending (leading to less output) which may be due to less consumer spending, but with less goods available, there would inevitably be less consumer spending.   It would be difficult for me to believe that companies make business decisions based on where their stock is.   For example, would Some Company suddenly stop work on their new production facility because the stock market is headed down this week? I don't think so.  Maybe some do, but not how I'd CEO it.  In fact, failure to finish that facility could indeed sink your stock price on investor fears, regardless of facts of the matter (maybe the fact is that we are manufacturing Coronavirus help NOW in existing factory and it makes sense to throw capital at that and hold off on the new place, which could be resumed after all oars rowing to Corona help).  

I get that this is a chicken and egg convo but I generally rely on the econ and fi classes back in the day.    So I believe that GDP is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator.  Overall none of it will change what I'm doing but a fascinating thought experiment.


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## geekette (Feb 28, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> I think we were due for this. *Almost 30 k DOW is high.*


Yes.  Dow crossing 10k many years ago had at one time thought to be unheard of, impossible to ever occur.  Geeks scrambled where their number fields did not accept 10k.   

The market was overvalued, we were due for a correction of some sort, but not sure we'll make it to correction (haven't paid attention to actual numbers).  Could be after however long on Corona-related market fade we'll be right back to up up up, big ole smiles and positivity from market players.


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## Brett (Feb 28, 2020)

geekette said:


> Excellent explanation!  I'm not quite onboard with it, but a great explanation.
> 
> Most companies and consumers do not check GDP nor stock market before making purchases.  There are a lot of independent moving parts, and consumers are the biggest wildcard.  GDP rises because of measured increase in output.   Output does not automatically sink when stock market does but would on less business spending (leading to less output) which may be due to less consumer spending, but with less goods available, there would inevitably be less consumer spending.   It would be difficult for me to believe that companies make business decisions based on where their stock is.   For example, would Some Company suddenly stop work on their new production facility because the stock market is headed down this week? I don't think so.  Maybe some do, but not how I'd CEO it.  In fact, failure to finish that facility could indeed sink your stock price on investor fears, regardless of facts of the matter (maybe the fact is that we are manufacturing Coronavirus help NOW in existing factory and it makes sense to throw capital at that and hold off on the new place, which could be resumed after all oars rowing to Corona help).
> 
> I get that this is a chicken and egg convo but I generally rely on the econ and fi classes back in the day.    So I believe that GDP is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator.  Overall none of it will change what I'm doing but a fascinating thought experiment.



of course GDP is a lagging indicator
The forecast of company earnings, sales, dividends, tax rates, interest rates, etc determines stock prices
The* fear* of lower company earnings in the future .....


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## CO skier (Feb 28, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> 2008 dip was well onto recovery after 1 year 4 month.


The graph I posted was for only the 2008 waterfall portion of the 2007-2009 decline when things finally took a major turn for the worse.  The stock market decline started in the fall of 2007 at higher levels.  It took four years for indexes and buy-and-hold investors to regain the 2007 market levels.

There is a graph in this linked article from 2009 that nicely summarizes the gyrations and four bull traps that led up to the 2008 waterfall.





__





						S&P500 Chart: Wild Market Swings 2007-2009
					

See what stocks top hedge funds are investing in. Coverage of SEC filings (13D, 13G, 13F, Form 4), hedge fund letters & buyside conferences




					www.marketfolly.com


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## DrQ (Feb 29, 2020)

Last Fall, we readjusted most of our investments with a new advisor. We kept a fairly conservative position as our new advisor was of a similar mind as I that the market was overbought. We were prepared for this and went bargain hunting for equities which are high quality.

We also readjusted our Roth's to be more equity heavy.


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## Icc5 (Feb 29, 2020)

Held everything and continued buying after 2008 and at peak of this market had almost doubled plus received dividends from all except 2 of the companies stock I hold.  I hold 19 different stocks and 2 have had a hard time with one of those looking up in the future.  Everyone at work kept pleading with me to sell.  So glad I'm my own person.  Now this portfolio is what I have had for years.  My broker watches our 401's,Roth's, and some other investments but my stock Portfolio I handle.  Over the years just dividends alone have paid me about 400% over my original investments.


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## Big Matt (Mar 1, 2020)

I've been reading a lot of posts and am convinced that most people really don't understand the dynamics of what is going on here.  There is a virus that is causing panic.  The virus is new and people are dying, but it's like the flu or common cold, and not something like HIV.   According to the CDC, about 26 million people have had the flu this season with 14,000 deaths.  The occurrences dwarf the Coronavirus (86,000 cases give or take), but the deaths are adding up with the Coronavirus faster than with the flu so people are freaking out.  The news loves it, and they can show propaganda film clips of the "poor" Chinese.  

This is NOT something that impacts most companies directly or even moderately in an indirect manner.  With that said, there is a huge run on surgical masks and clorox wipes for no apparent reason. 

In a few months it will be old news and people will be talking about something else.  

Back to the stock market.  This WILL impact earnings in companies who have supply chain issues related to China and other countries who have trouble keeping factories running and shipping goods.  The travel industry is going to take it in the seat for sure.  What about the rest of the companies?  Why are they falling too.  The reason why is that most trading is done electronically based on predetermined points to sell (or buy).  Once the predetermined points hit the selling starts.  Companies drop because the overall market drops, not necessarily because their company is flawed or has something really wrong.  

Stay the course, and keep buying.


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## Brett (Mar 1, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> I've been reading a lot of posts and am convinced that most people really don't understand the dynamics of what is going on here.  There is a virus that is causing panic.  The virus is new and people are dying, but it's like the flu or common cold, and not something like HIV.   According to the CDC, about 26 million people have had the flu this season with 14,000 deaths.  The occurrences dwarf the Coronavirus (86,000 cases give or take), but the deaths are adding up with the Coronavirus faster than with the flu so people are freaking out.  The news loves it, and they can show propaganda film clips of the "poor" Chinese.
> 
> This is NOT something that impacts most companies directly or even moderately in an indirect manner.  With that said, there is a huge run on surgical masks and clorox wipes for no apparent reason.
> 
> ...




OK - so this is a *GREAT* buying opportunity for the stock market and tomorrow everyone should be in a buying mode
but just don't buy companies that are having trouble with their factories and have supply chain issues from China ...
it's all about understanding the "dynamics"  .........    yeah,  got it


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## Rolltydr (Mar 1, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> I've been reading a lot of posts and am convinced that most people really don't understand the dynamics of what is going on here.  There is a virus that is causing panic.  The virus is new and people are dying, but it's like the flu or common cold, and not something like HIV.   According to the CDC, about 26 million people have had the flu this season with 14,000 deaths.  The occurrences dwarf the Coronavirus (86,000 cases give or take), but the deaths are adding up with the Coronavirus faster than with the flu so people are freaking out.  The news loves it, and they can show propaganda film clips of the "poor" Chinese.
> 
> This is NOT something that impacts most companies directly or even moderately in an indirect manner.  With that said, there is a huge run on surgical masks and clorox wipes for no apparent reason.
> 
> ...


Mind telling us your medical background, Matt? Oh, and also, what do you mean by “poor” Chinese?


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## bogey21 (Mar 1, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> The reason why is that most trading is done electronically based on predetermined points to sell (or buy).  Once the predetermined points hit the selling starts.



I could be dead wrong but I think $0 commissions add to the volatility which may have an impact market moves...

George


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## Chrispee (Mar 1, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> I've been reading a lot of posts and am convinced that most people really don't understand the dynamics of what is going on here.  There is a virus that is causing panic.  The virus is new and people are dying, but it's like the flu..."



So a disease that you admit is similar to the flu is developing but you don't see the need for concern?  It's interesting to me that people compare COVID-19 to the flu in one breath, and then dismiss the media coverage in the next breath.  Sure we can agree that the flu kills way more people currently and is a bigger concern statistically, but don't you acknowledge that this coronavirus is out of the bag and likely to spread given the trajectory of the past month?  A new disease with the potential to kill as many as the current flu is a big deal.


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 1, 2020)

May be too late to sell now but may sell a portion this summer once this subsides and the markets calm and edge upward as a hedge in case market follows the 1918 pandemic pattern below. Then buy back into the market next winter when prices decline again.




Source: CDC website on 1918 Pandemic


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## GetawaysRus (Mar 2, 2020)

Here are 2 stats that I find interesting.  I'm not a chartist or a quant, but I do periodically look at a few stock market valuation indicators to get a sense of where stocks are trading.  That is, as an amateur investor, I'm trying to decipher whether the stock market is fairly valued, overvalued (meaning it's time to be cautious), or undervalued (it's time to be more aggressive).  

These include (1) the Shiller PE (also called the CAPE10) and (2) total stock market capitalization to GDP (also called the "Buffet indicator").  The general notions behind these indicators are:
1. Shiller PE - investors should not be willing to pay too much (too high a price) for stocks relative to the earnings of the underlying companies.  The Shiller PE uses inflation adjusted earnings over the past 10 years.
2. Stock market cap to GDP - The total value of all stocks on the stock market should in general track what's happening with the GDP. 

For Shiller PE, look at:




__





						Shiller PE Ratio
					

Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 31.10, a change of -0.05 from previous market close.



					www.multpl.com
				











						Shiller PE Ratio: Where Are We with Market Valuations?
					

Shiller PE is used to measure the overall valuation and predict the potential returns of the stock market.




					www.gurufocus.com
				




And for stock market cap to GDP look at:








						Buffett Indicator: The percent of total market cap relative to Gross National Product?
					

The percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the US Gross National Product is used to measure the overall valuation and predict the potential returns of the stock market.




					www.gurufocus.com
				




On those last two charts, you can click to change the graph to display year to date, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, or all.

Over the past few years, these two indicators have generally been saying that the stock market is overvalued compared to historical means.

What I find interesting about both these indicators as of today:
1. We've had a sudden, huge decline in stocks.  I initially thought this might have dropped an overvalued market so much that it might be back in fair value territory.  But if you look at the graphs, both the Shiller PE and the stock market cap to GDP are still well above historic means.
2. You can use both the Shiller PE and the stock market cap to GDP to guesstimate the future return of the stock market (assuming that the market should follow its historical patterns).  As of today, despite the huge decline, both of these indicators are still predicting a negative future return in the stock market (-1.1% for the Schiller PE and -2.1% for the stock market cap to GDP).


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## CO skier (Mar 2, 2020)

GetawaysRus said:


> 1. We've had a sudden, huge decline in stocks.  I initially thought this might have dropped an overvalued market so much that it might be back in fair value territory.  But if you look at the graphs, both the Shiller PE and the stock market cap to GDP are still well above historic means.


The chart of forward looking Price/Earnings is telling the same story.  Last week's selloff took the market down to the "somewhat reasonable" P/E of last October.







The overvalued, bubble stock market since 2018 is obvious.  (The Average S&P 500 P/E is 13-15).  Does anyone doubt the Economic effects of the factory shutdowns, cancelled travel plans and events, and general biological-financial-election uncertainty will negatively effect earnings, thereby taking the P/E further lower than the rosy outlook of the last year, and take the stock market with it?  Companies cannot even estimate these effects for their reporting the end of this month.

Does anyone seriously think that after this waterfall selloff that popped the latest bubble, that investors will suddenly return to their irrational exuberance and even approach the market price records this year?  I am not betting on it.  I am betting on prices 10% lower from these levels within the next six months.  But that is just me, and not any sort of investment advice.


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## easyrider (Mar 2, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Does anyone seriously think that after this waterfall selloff that popped the latest bubble, that investors will suddenly return to their irrational exuberance and even approach the market price records this year? I am not betting on it. I am betting on prices 10% lower from these levels within the next six months. But that is just me, and not any sort of investment advice.



I'm betting on a dead cat bounce.

Bill


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## CO skier (Mar 2, 2020)

easyrider said:


> I'm betting on a dead cat bounce.
> 
> Bill


Probably a few before the bottom is reached and a few more on the way up to new highs - over one or two years.


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## Brett (Mar 2, 2020)

it's time to jump back in !


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## Bucky (Mar 2, 2020)

LOL. That lasted not long! Future now down 100+ at 7am EST. Too early to get back in. Not trying to catch the bottom can save one a whole lot of money! Wouldn’t even think about this until there is an announcement of an imminent treatment or cure for coronavirus.


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## joestein (Mar 2, 2020)

I am looking to buy.   I would like to buy Royal Carribean.  I am just waiting for it to bottom out.   It was $135 before the Virus hit the market.    The yield on the dividend is now almost 4%.   It is $77 pre-market and I think it might be headed even farther down.

Joe


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## Big Matt (Mar 2, 2020)

Brett said:


> OK - so this is a *GREAT* buying opportunity for the stock market and tomorrow everyone should be in a buying mode
> but just don't buy companies that are having trouble with their factories and have supply chain issues from China ...
> it's all about understanding the "dynamics"  .........    yeah,  got it


Yes, that's correct.  I didn't say buy tomorrow or simply buy.  What I'm saying is that there is a sell off due to concerns over the virus and most companies aren't impacted to the degree that their value has suffered.  Company fundamentals haven't changed.


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## Big Matt (Mar 2, 2020)

Rolltydr said:


> Mind telling us your medical background, Matt? Oh, and also, what do you mean by “poor” Chinese?


I have no medical background.  I just read the CDC web site to get factual information.  The quotes about the Chinese being poor is a play on words...poor in terms of I feel sorry for them, but at the same time, their economy is red hot (not poor).


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## Big Matt (Mar 2, 2020)

easyrider said:


> I'm betting on a dead cat bounce.
> 
> Bill


Bill, what's the dead cat in terms of your analogy?  The entire market?


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## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

joestein said:


> I am looking to buy.   I would like to buy Royal Carribean.  I am just waiting for it to bottom out.   It was $135 before the Virus hit the market.    The yield on the dividend is now almost 4%.   It is $77 pre-market and I think it might be headed even farther down.
> 
> Joe


Do they still offer a discount if you're a shareholder?  I think it's 100 shs.


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## Ironwood (Mar 2, 2020)

If we get a rate cut sooner than later, that will help bolster the market.


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## joestein (Mar 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> Do they still offer a discount if you're a shareholder?  I think it's 100 shs.



No idea, but as we cruise on them all the time (two cruises scheduled for later this year), that would be nice.


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## Passepartout (Mar 2, 2020)

Looks like a buying opportunity to me.


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## GetawaysRus (Mar 2, 2020)

CO skier said:


> The chart of forward looking Price/Earnings is telling the same story.  Last week's selloff took the market down to the "somewhat reasonable" P/E of last October.
> 
> View attachment 17636



That's another interesting chart to follow.  Do you mind telling us where you get it, or is this premium content that requires a paid subscription?


----------



## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

joestein said:


> No idea, but as we cruise on them all the time (two cruises scheduled for later this year), that would be nice.


I think discount is small, like $100 OBC, but, a hunnerd bucks is a hunnerd bucks. If div pays gratuities, ownership brings rewards!

Enjoy your cruises!  I like cruising, A LOT, just haven't made it back.   RCL had a W. Carrib out of Galveston I was really interested in, back before Costa Maya got wrecked (so many years ago!).   Gees, I need to think about that again.   You have inadvertently nudged me, thanks!


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## bluehende (Mar 2, 2020)

This might be a good way to look at it.  Picking a bottom or a top is just luck.  Saying that there has never been a time where it was a mistake to buy stocks.  Look at the worst declines and realize if you bought at the high before the plunge if you have 10 to 20 years it was not a mistake and you are happy that you bought.  Near time you may lose a bit of sleep but over the long haul you have been happy.  Unless you think this is the end of civilization as we know it you now have a chance to make a good decision at a 12% additional discount.


----------



## CO skier (Mar 2, 2020)

GetawaysRus said:


> That's another interesting chart to follow.  Do you mind telling us where you get it, or is this premium content that requires a paid subscription?











						Investors Cast Wary Eye on Market Open With Bad News Piling Up
					

(Bloomberg) -- The first U.S. coronavirus death. Signs the disease is squeezing China’s economy. A possible outbreak in Washington State. Trading may have stopped, but the drumbeat of alarming headlines hasn’t. That’s making investors anxious about what happens when markets reopen.While considerable




					finance.yahoo.com
				




This was just one of the interesting articles I read on the internet over the weekend.  MarketWatch, CNBC, MSN, Seeking Alpha.

More interesting charts here:



			https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stockmktperatio.pdf


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## Julian926 (Mar 2, 2020)

Anyone waiting for Tesla to drop back to the $500's?


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## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> This might be a good way to look at it.  Picking a bottom or a top is just luck.  Saying that there has never been a time where it was a mistake to buy stocks.  Look at the worst declines and realize if you bought at the high before the plunge if you have 10 to 20 years it was not a mistake and you are happy that you bought.  Near time you may lose a bit of sleep but over the long haul you have been happy.  Unless you think this is the end of civilization as we know it you now have a chance to make a good decision at a 12% additional discount.


I completely align with this.    I understand that some might think I'm nuts, always 90%+ equities, but, I am on the boring big old company end of things so not as "aggressive" as it seems.  Over time, the market's trajectory is up.   Over time, a company that is quality will go up.  Not every company is quality.   Quality is not a given constant through the life of a company, either.  Every company faces risks, and over time, some of that risk is obsolescence.   Example, GE was a star, now people hate it.  Since I'm not living off that dividend, and didn't buy the company until the beat down started, it's a long hold worth having in my portfolio.  

I also don't think there is a bad time to buy stock.  My divs keep rolling, I did not stop reinvestment in a high market and not stopping it in a low market.   Probably because I am not a seller, I don't get bunched up on market lows.   Even in, say, 30 years, when I might be a seller, still not worried about a low market.  With so many shares gained via reinvestment, just for owning the stock for decades, I'll have a choice of which lots to liquidate to accommodate the gain/loss/net out that I need.   Someone that feels they bought too high a few months ago may feel better in a few years when they see that stock price much higher.   Meanwhile, enjoy the dividend, if it pays one.  

I have long believed that my only true risk is the total annihilation overnight of every industry.   Since I deem that risk so low as to not be thought worthy, I sleep well at night, and always have.   I will not be a flavor-of-the-month buyer, ever, and not suited to FANG, either.   

Good luck to all!


----------



## Fredflintstone (Mar 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> I completely align with this. I understand that some might think I'm nuts, always 90%+ equities, but, I am on the boring big old company end of things so not as "aggressive" as it seems. Over time, the market's trajectory is up. Over time, a company that is quality will go up. Not every company is quality. Quality is not a given constant through the life of a company, either. Every company faces risks, and over time, some of that risk is obsolescence. Example, GE was a star, now people hate it. Since I'm not living off that dividend, and didn't buy the company until the beat down started, it's a long hold worth having in my portfolio.
> 
> I also don't think there is a bad time to buy stock. My divs keep rolling, I did not stop reinvestment in a high market and not stopping it in a low market. Probably because I am not a seller, I don't get bunched up on market lows. Even in, say, 30 years, when I might be a seller, still not worried about a low market. With so many shares gained via reinvestment, just for owning the stock for decades, I'll have a choice of which lots to liquidate to accommodate the gain/loss/net out that I need. Someone that feels they bought too high a few months ago may feel better in a few years when they see that stock price much higher. Meanwhile, enjoy the dividend, if it pays one.
> 
> ...



Warren Buffett and you could be best friends with that line of thought....and, I think, Berkshire Hathaway has done extremely well with this thinking. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

Fredflintstone said:


> Warren Buffett and you could be best friends with that line of thought....and, I think, Berkshire Hathaway has done extremely well with this thinking.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Yes, many point out that Berk Hath doesn't pay a dividend, but WB sure likes to Get a dividend!  Same mindset on favorite length of time to hold = Forever!

I respect his advice to the masses to just buy ETFs.   I think those with emotions tied up in money should heed it.   Those of us that don't get freaked out on market moves nor believe "you'll lose every nickel in the stock market!" are better wired for DIY.   I like that WB is just a regular guy.  He is out there saying, Look, I'm not brilliant!   Would that all fi types would be so down to earth vs trying to get people believe that only they can do well in the stock market.     To my knowledge, Warren has never ever done fear-mongering.  What an honorable, decent man.


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## easyrider (Mar 2, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> Bill, what's the dead cat in terms of your analogy?  The entire market?



No, most people are investors investing for the long haul. Traders look for the quick nut. A dead cat bounce is basically when a stock drops fast and recovers fast but is expected to drop again. This can happen by the minute and money can be lost especially without stop loss in place. 

We got out of market investments in 2009 and bought more rentals. The results are good, imo.

Bill


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## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

easyrider said:


> No, most people are investors investing for the long haul. Traders look for the quick nut. A dead cat bounce is basically when a stock drops fast and recovers fast but is expected to drop again. This can happen by the minute and money can be lost especially without stop loss in place.
> 
> We got out of market investments in 2009 and bought more rentals. The results are good, imo.
> 
> Bill


Rentals - homes or apartment buildings?

Do you manage all yourself, or, how hard was it to find Quality property management?


----------



## CalGalTraveler (Mar 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> I have long believed that my only *true risk is the total annihilation overnight* of every industry.   Since I deem that risk so low as to not be thought worthy, I sleep well at night, and always have.   I will not be a flavor-of-the-month buyer, ever, and not suited to FANG, either.
> 
> Good luck to all!



Disruptive innovation is a true risk for many companies today and not a low risk with new technologies emerging. Clayton Christensen's classic book, "The Innovators Dilemma" defines the problem well.  

FYI...we are fans of market-wide index ETFs over mutual funds to spread this risk and sell off/or buy ETFs when we can hit a peak/low during the day.


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## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> Disruptive innovation is a true risk for many companies today and not a low risk with new technologies emerging. Clayton Christensen's classic book, "The Innovators Dilemma" defines the problem well.
> 
> FYI...we are fans of market-wide index ETFs over mutual funds to spread this risk and sell off/or buy ETFs when we can hit a peak/low during the day.


Had not read that book, will add it to library request I'm putting in later today for other stuff.  Thanks!   

The thing I like about old companies is that they have had to adapt over and over again.   Rate of change is faster today than when first robots entered industrial use. 

Do I understand you to say that you daytrade ETFs?   OR, mainly hold but when there is a reason to sell or buy, you do it?   I can respect any decisive investor, no matter their strategy or tactics.   You have piqued my interest if you are in and out of ETFs frequently.  Would you care to elaborate on your strategy and tactics?  Everyone has their own deal going on, but if I'm hearing you how I think I'm hearing you, I have not run across your scenario before and it interests me.


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> Had not read that book, will add it to library request I'm putting in later today for other stuff.  Thanks!
> 
> The thing I like about old companies is that they have had to adapt over and over again.   Rate of change is faster today than when first robots entered industrial use.
> 
> Do I understand you to say that you daytrade ETFs?   OR, mainly hold but when there is a reason to sell or buy, you do it?   I can respect any decisive investor, no matter their strategy or tactics.   You have piqued my interest if you are in and out of ETFs frequently.  Would you care to elaborate on your strategy and tactics?  Everyone has their own deal going on, but if I'm hearing you how I think I'm hearing you, I have not run across your scenario before and it interests me.


I like your approach on dividends. I have been accumulating some dividend focused Index ETFs from Vanguard (VHYAX) and SPYDR (SPYD) to spread the disruption risk of one company failing. Because of high dividends, these ETFs also have historically less volatility than pure S&P 500 funds.

No day trading - too busy for that and I would probably fare miserably. Just paring the portfolio periodically based on market conditions and our exposure. I try to dollar-cost average on low market points every month. (buy low/sell high) Don't always hit it right but better than blindly picking a set day of the month on autopilot; over time should have positive effect.


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## Big Matt (Mar 2, 2020)

easyrider said:


> No, most people are investors investing for the long haul. Traders look for the quick nut. A dead cat bounce is basically when a stock drops fast and recovers fast but is expected to drop again. This can happen by the minute and money can be lost especially without stop loss in place.
> 
> We got out of market investments in 2009 and bought more rentals. The results are good, imo.
> 
> Bill


Thanks.  I know what the dead cat bounce is......even a dead cat will bounce when dropped from high enough.  I was just curious about what cats.  Your example would be one where the trader would buy and then quickly sell to gain a little profit even if the company is on the way out.


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## Big Matt (Mar 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> I completely align with this.    I understand that some might think I'm nuts, always 90%+ equities, but, I am on the boring big old company end of things so not as "aggressive" as it seems.  Over time, the market's trajectory is up.   Over time, a company that is quality will go up.  Not every company is quality.   Quality is not a given constant through the life of a company, either.  Every company faces risks, and over time, some of that risk is obsolescence.   Example, GE was a star, now people hate it.  Since I'm not living off that dividend, and didn't buy the company until the beat down started, it's a long hold worth having in my portfolio.
> 
> I also don't think there is a bad time to buy stock.  My divs keep rolling, I did not stop reinvestment in a high market and not stopping it in a low market.   Probably because I am not a seller, I don't get bunched up on market lows.   Even in, say, 30 years, when I might be a seller, still not worried about a low market.  With so many shares gained via reinvestment, just for owning the stock for decades, I'll have a choice of which lots to liquidate to accommodate the gain/loss/net out that I need.   Someone that feels they bought too high a few months ago may feel better in a few years when they see that stock price much higher.   Meanwhile, enjoy the dividend, if it pays one.
> 
> ...


You and I have the same investment strategy.  My portfolio is loaded with equities and a hand full of tax free bonds.  I think some people confuse this strategy with being diversified.  I don't want to be diversified.  I just want to own great companies that pay a solid dividend.  People need to remember that blue chip stocks change as the times change.  Nobody would have owned Amazon 20 years ago, but you have to have it today (or at least I think you do).  The equivalent stocks of yesterday are today's tech companies.  

Kodak = Facebook (content) and Apple (product)
Xerox = Microsoft (onedrive) or Apple (iCloud)
ATT = Google (infrastructure) and Apple (products)
Sears = Amazon


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## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

Big Matt said:


> You and I have the same investment strategy.  My portfolio is loaded with equities and a hand full of tax free bonds.  I think some people confuse this strategy with being diversified.  I don't want to be diversified. * I just want to own great companies that pay a solid dividend.*  People need to remember that blue chip stocks change as the times change.  Nobody would have owned Amazon 20 years ago, but you have to have it today (or at least I think you do).  The equivalent stocks of yesterday are today's tech companies.
> 
> Kodak = Facebook (content) and Apple (product)
> Xerox = Microsoft (onedrive) or Apple (iCloud)
> ...


Excellent post, showing that, indeed, Times Change!

bold part is exactly my deal.


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## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

CalGalTraveler said:


> I like your approach on dividends. I have been accumulating some dividend focused Index ETFs from Vanguard (VHYAX) and SPYDR (SPYD) to spread the disruption risk of one company failing. Because of high dividends, these ETFs also have historically less volatility than pure S&P 500 funds.
> 
> No day trading - too busy for that and I would probably fare miserably. Just paring the portfolio periodically based on market conditions and our exposure. I try to dollar-cost average on low market points every month. (buy low/sell high) Don't always hit it right but better than blindly picking a set day of the month; over time should have positive effect.


Ok, normal decent investor.  Glad to hear that!   DCA is my long time friend, too, same reasons - can't hit a moving target Just Right.  Will probably DCA on the way out, too, when/if that time comes, and IF I actually sell.  RMD 16 years from now, so, firm plans Later.  Like I started this in my 20s, Sock It Away Until Further Notice!


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## Ironwood (Mar 2, 2020)

Julian926 said:


> Anyone waiting for Tesla to drop back to the $500's?


As I write this its up $60 to $728.  I was stopped out early last week and only suffered half the fall.  But be very careful.  It's still trading in the stratosphere, way beyond any fundamentals.  Should it tumble again, the charts suggest there is a little support at $500, a little t $400 and more substantial support at $350.....but that's a long way down from where it is now.  It's a concept stock and you can make some real money chasing TSLA, but be careful and use tight stops.


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## amycurl (Mar 2, 2020)

To quote TLC, _"don't go chasing waterfalls...."_


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## CalGalTraveler (Mar 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> Ok, normal decent investor.  Glad to hear that!   DCA is my long time friend, too, same reasons - can't hit a moving target Just Right.  Will probably DCA on the way out, too, when/if that time comes, and IF I actually sell.  RMD 16 years from now, so, firm plans Later.  Like I started this in my 20s, Sock It Away Until Further Notice!



That's exactly what we did to exit. Used modified DCA at periodic intervals on the way out over the past several years to pay for college expenses. If we had listened to the financial pundits and sold 5 years worth of stock to cover college expense upfront before the kids left high school, we would have left a lot of money on the table. Of course market conditions could have been different but we also had cash savings to hedge for a year or so if the markets went sideways. YMMV.


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## Julian926 (Mar 2, 2020)

Ironwood said:


> As I write this its up $60 to $728.  I was stopped out early last week and only suffered half the fall.  But be very careful.  It's still trading in the stratosphere, way beyond any fundamentals.  Should it tumble again, the charts suggest there is a little support at $500, a little t $400 and more substantial support at $350.....but that's a long way down from where it is now.  It's a concept stock and you can make some real money chasing TSLA, but be careful and use tight stops.



No doubt. It is a long way down to $350.  But like you said, it may come down to fundamentals some day.  A market downturn could certainly cause people to scrutinize, especially at their balance sheet.  I do believe, though, this could be a huge disrupter in the energy space and I would be long on Tesla because they're not just a car company.  Energy storage could be huge, who knows. 

I'd be curious how Model Y is going to affect the stock this year.


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## easyrider (Mar 2, 2020)

geekette said:


> Rentals - homes or apartment buildings?
> 
> Do you manage all yourself, or, how hard was it to find Quality property management?



A mix of everything including commercial property. My wife is a professional property manager. I was a general contractor. We do have on site managers that have been with us for decades. Since 2009 I like single family residences the best because they are easy to finance, sell, rent and manage. I'm all about easy these days.

Bill


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## pianodinosaur (Mar 2, 2020)

The cover of that best selling “The Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy” says it all.  Don’t Panic!


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## DancingWaters (Mar 2, 2020)

Geekette,
We have had rentals for 30 years and have just started selling them.  30 years ago, we usually just broke even, but after 30 years they have been a GREAT income.  We are 65 and my husband is tired of doing the work
on them and worrying about them.  We did 90% of the work, managing and the finances ourselves.  It has put 3 kids through private colleges, 3 weddings and 3 down payments on our kids first homes.  We worked extremely hard over the past 30 years.   Just this week we have sold 2 duplexes. We have 1 duplex left to put on the market this summer.   One duplex sold at a full price offer and the other one at 97% asking price.  We bought them brand new, and therefore had few big repairs until the last few years.  We knew we were going to be replacing big ticket items soon and chose to just sell.  We would do it all over again!!


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## bluehende (Mar 2, 2020)

bluehende said:


> I sold a couple weeks ago and did nibble back in today with some roth cash.  Bought qqq on the close.  Interesting that it took 2 1/2 minutes to fill a market order.  I cann't complain as it was 1/2 percent lower on close than when I put in the order.  MERS and SARS both took the market down 12 % right about where we are.
> 
> I expected to buy tomorrow, but this looked like a pretty good blowoff




I actually sold it today.  hard not to bounce when you make 5% in 2 days,


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## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

DancingWaters said:


> Geekette,
> We have had rentals for 30 years and have just started selling them.  30 years ago, we usually just broke even, but after 30 years they have been a GREAT income.  We are 65 and my husband is tired of doing the work
> on them and worrying about them.  We did 90% of the work, managing and the finances ourselves.  It has put 3 kids through private colleges, 3 weddings and 3 down payments on our kids first homes.  We worked extremely hard over the past 30 years.   Just this week we have sold 2 duplexes. We have 1 duplex left to put on the market this summer.   One duplex sold at a full price offer and the other one at 97% asking price.  We bought them brand new, and therefore had few big repairs until the last few years.  We knew we were going to be replacing big ticket items soon and chose to just sell.  We would do it all over again!!


Wow, outstanding!

I'm glad you did so well with it!   Massive amount of work, massive amount of rewards.  Good on you!!!!


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## geekette (Mar 2, 2020)

easyrider said:


> A mix of everything including commercial property. My wife is a professional property manager. I was a general contractor. We do have on site managers that have been with us for decades. Since 2009 I like single family residences the best because they are easy to finance, sell, rent and manage. I'm all about easy these days.
> 
> Bill


Wow, what a natural choice for your fields!!!   Glad to hear long term managers, I knew they had to exist.  Easy - yeah, I kind of always thought dealing with a property I didn't live in would be extra work I didn't want, or extra expense I didn't want.  And tenants.  I just didn't wanna....  

I would not be well-suited to it, but, I like successful real estate investor stories.


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## Ironwood (Mar 3, 2020)

Julian926 said:


> No doubt. It is a long way down to $350.  But like you said, it may come down to fundamentals some day.  A market downturn could certainly cause people to scrutinize, especially at their balance sheet.  I do believe, though, this could be a huge disrupter in the energy space and I would be long on Tesla because they're not just a car company.  Energy storage could be huge, who knows.
> 
> I'd be curious how Model Y is going to affect the stock this year.


Tesla has bounced all over the place this morning like the market with the announced Fed rate cut.  Rather than buy 
TSLA directly, I'm going to buy an ETF with a substantial TSLA holding, so that I have exposure, but I'll let a portfolio manager decide when to hold and when to fold.  Google ETF's with TSLA and you'll get a ranking of them with the percentage TSLA holding, then assess the merits of each relative to performance, issuer, fees etc.


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## DrQ (Mar 3, 2020)

joestein said:


> I am looking to buy.   I would like to buy Royal Carribean.  I am just waiting for it to bottom out.   It was $135 before the Virus hit the market.    The yield on the dividend is now almost 4%.   It is $77 pre-market and I think it might be headed even farther down.
> 
> Joe


Given the cruise industry's issue with containing Norovirus, I think there will be much better buying opportunities with cruise line stocks. This is going to be a disaster for them.


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## CO skier (Mar 3, 2020)

The Federal Reserve panicked today with a 50 basis cut in the Fed Funds rate.  Really?  They could not wait two weeks for the scheduled meeting and at least appear they are not panicked?

If that is not the ultimate "sell signal," then what is?


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## CO skier (Mar 4, 2020)

Look at the "1 Year" column post-Intermeeting Rate Cut in this article.

When the Fed "steps on the gas" with an emergency intermeeting rate cut of 0.50% or more, there is a reason, and the stock market does not do well for the next year, at least.









						Here’s what history says about stock-market performance in past instances when the Fed delivers an emergency interest-rate cut
					

The Federal Reserve delivered a rare emergency interest-rate cut to Wall Street on Tuesday in an attempt to curtail economic damage from the coronavirus...




					www.marketwatch.com
				




Investing is all about risk management.  Buy-and-hold has no risk management.  Everyone is a buy-hold investor when market just keeps climbing (pre-2000, pre-2007, pre-2020).  Too many erstwhile buy-and-hold investors find that they do not have the stomach for the inevitable 20%, 30%, 50% market declines -- and they sell out at the worst times.

There are still better than average returns over the past 10 years for lucky buy-and-hold investors to book by selling out now.  Or investors can bail-out when they reach their max-pain levels 10, 20, 30, 40, 50%  below today's closing prices (not saying this sell off will reach 50% -- no one knows).

I held on through the 1987 market selloff and ultimate panic, but that was because I was just starting out in investing.  I swore I would never leave myself exposed to such a sell off again, and that is how I invest.

Selling out 100% in tax deferred accounts, with no immediate tax (IRAs and 401Ks) on the accumulated capital gains (or ever with Roth IRAs) is the only way I can achieve my goal.

And inverse and leveraged inverse Exchange Traded Notes have revolutionized my investing, and returns.


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## geekette (Mar 4, 2020)

I dispute that true buy and hold investors would be selling now, nor that everyone starts as buy n hold, I think few do, I think most people have at least a hazy exit plan and never intended to hold over decades.  I also don't think investing is "all about" risk management.  That's ok, different perspectives is what makes a market.   There is no one true correct way to invest, we each do as we feel serves our goals.  

I am true buy and hold, sitting firm.  Zero risk management plan because I don't need one.   I would be a buyer if I had the dough to do so, but I don't leave investable cash sitting around.   No way I would sell out to cash at any time, so this is a nonevent for me.  The ups and downs over the 30 years has not scared me, I haven't lost any money.   Sure, my 401k had a temporary sink back in 2008, but it was temporary.  Here again, it's unlikely any of my companies will be squashed out of existence.  Dividends keep coming in, and locking in juicy yields at reinvest.     More shares per pay now is helpful to me as it just further amps what next quarter pay will be.


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## Ralph Sir Edward (Mar 4, 2020)

The global recession is not coming - it's already here. The data reporting has just not caught up yet. (As usual). Example, China reported an 80% drop is new car sales in Feb. Think of the supply chain that affects.

Dividends can be cut, just like they can be raised.


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## Brett (Mar 4, 2020)

Count me in with the buy and hold diversified low cost index funds over the last 40 years.   And I'll stay holding even if it's now a "global recession".      Didn't sell in 2008 or any other market decline years.    But as I get older I periodically re-balance from equities to less risky bonds and income producing assets.


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## geekette (Mar 4, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> The global recession is not coming - it's already here. The data reporting has just not caught up yet. (As usual). Example, China reported an 80% drop is new car sales in Feb. Think of the supply chain that affects.
> 
> Dividends can be cut, just like they can be raised.


Sure, dividends can be cut.   If earnings and profits get squeezed, they may.   Still not selling shares.   Looking at how few quality companies cut divs in 2008, that's just another fear I'll ignore and absorb whatever reality comes.  Temporary issues are not a long term concern for me.  After all, even after a div cut, and reinvestment of that first lower div payment, the march upward per div pay begins again.


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## Ironwood (Mar 4, 2020)

Incredible market swings yesterday.....do I sell into strength this morning.....but I'm not back to cost on the two investments I made shortly after the open yesterday.   I need a trading bot!


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## VacationForever (Mar 4, 2020)

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> The global recession is not coming - it's already here. The data reporting has just not caught up yet. (As usual). Example, China reported an 80% drop is new car sales in Feb. Think of the supply chain that affects.
> 
> Dividends can be cut, just like they can be raised.


Duh.  Feb was in the middle of their coronavirus lockdown where most stayed at home, whether mandated or voluntarily.  My former staff in Shanghai told me a week ago that in Shanghai life had resumed and people were moving freely within Shanghai again.


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## CO skier (Mar 16, 2020)

Here is an up-to-today update to the homemade chart in post #54.

Anyone thinking now is the time to buy some beaten down stocks may want to review the parallels of this market to 2008, and think twice.

Stock futures are up about 3.4% at this moment, but it should be obvious this sell-off can go on for quite some time.


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## Bucky (Mar 17, 2020)

One thing I learned the hard way when I was day trading many years ago was to pay attention to the analogy of “don‘t try to catch a falling knife”. Went all cash a few days ago and glad I did. When I see positive news start to come out, which there is none happening right now, I will start to nibble some. Don’t think we will see that bounce until we see a directional change in the number of Covid-19 cases like China is experiencing right now. The market is totally news driven right now. I’m definitely a buy and hold type of investor but to just watch everything we've gained over the last several years disappear would be irresponsible on my part. I have protected everything we have by going all cash. I can always find new show ponies when the time is ripe. Now is not that time, yet!


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## Brett (Mar 17, 2020)

CO skier said:


> Here is an up-to-today update to the homemade chart in post #54.
> 
> Anyone thinking now is the time to buy some beaten down stocks may want to review the parallels of this market to 2008, and think twice.
> 
> Stock futures are up about 3.4% at this moment, but it should be obvious this sell-off can go on for quite some time.




yesterday was bad


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## WinniWoman (Mar 17, 2020)

In 2008/2009, I waited too long before I sold and lost a lot of money. In fact, it is still coming off my taxes.  Right now I am frozen with fear and I have done nothing with our money. I think the country will go into a depression. 

I have an appt with our FA today. I am also worried about our son's money which, since he is 32 years old is 100% in stocks within one of those retirement date geared mutual funds. He pays no attention to it or his IRA money because it is just "not his thing".


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## Brett (Mar 17, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> In 2008/2009, I waited too long before I sold and lost a lot of money. In fact, it is still coming off my taxes.  Right now I am frozen with fear and I have done nothing with our money. I think the country will go into a depression.
> 
> I have an appt with our FA today. I am also worried about our son's money which, since he is 32 years old is 100% in stocks within one of those retirement date geared mutual funds. He pays no attention to it or his IRA money because it is just "not his thing".



if it's a target date type fund from Vanguard or Schwab in a 401k that might be a good thing (being young and not doing anything)


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## Panina (Mar 17, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> In 2008/2009, I waited too long before I sold and lost a lot of money. In fact, it is still coming off my taxes.  Right now I am frozen with fear and I have done nothing with our money. I think the country will go into a depression.
> 
> I have an appt with our FA today. I am also worried about our son's money which, since he is 32 years old is 100% in stocks within one of those retirement date geared mutual funds. He pays no attention to it or his IRA money because it is just "not his thing".


Imo it will be a recession not a depression and short term.  Businesses will close and people will be unemployed but when this passes the demand for products and services will be back in demand.  The businesses that financially weathered it will be strong due to demand , and the demand for products that were not produced in our country will start new businesses in our country driving employment up again.  

I looked at all my investments today and some took a big hit, others did not.  Whereas I thought I would move things around I didn’t,  it wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be.  Now trying to figure out if I should take my liquidity and buy stocks. There is a good possibility they will go lower when the test numbers show the real numbers of those that are sick.


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

Panina said:


> Imo it will be a recession not a depression and short term.  Businesses will close and people will be unemployed but when this passes the demand for products and services will be back in demand.  The businesses that financially weathered it will be strong due to demand , and the demand for products that were not produced in our country will start new businesses in our country driving employment up again.
> 
> I looked at all my investments today and some took a big hit, others did not.  Whereas I thought I would move things around I didn’t,  it wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be.  Now trying to figure out if I should take my liquidity and buy stocks. There is a good possibility they will go lower when the test numbers show the real numbers of those that are sick.


Invest in TP.   You know the demand is there.   PG and KMB.  They make a lot of other things that consumers will not stop buying.  Alcohol would normally be recession-proof, but not sure it's easy to get now, depending on state/laws/closures.


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> In 2008/2009, I waited too long before I sold and lost a lot of money. In fact, it is still coming off my taxes.  Right now I am frozen with fear and I have done nothing with our money. I think the country will go into a depression.
> 
> I have an appt with our FA today. I am also worried about our son's money which, since he is 32 years old is 100% in stocks within one of those retirement date geared mutual funds. He pays no attention to it or his IRA money because it is just "not his thing".


oooof, too bad you sold instead of hanging on.  You would have been well-rewarded over this past decade.


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## WinniWoman (Mar 17, 2020)

Spoke to our FA today. He has such a calm and down to earth manner and I felt much better afterwards. He feels we should just stay as we are as we have large cash positions. He mentioned we could afford to be opportunistic with stock purchases- being stocks are lower right now- but certainly did not need to be and could leave our money in cash if it makes us feel better, which it does. He said bond funds have probably run their course so even those can be sold for cash (maybe CD's) but we can leave those alone as well.

I happened to go on line today and saw that big negative number on my home page, but am ignoring it. We are only like 35% stock mutual funds anyway. Still- when they go down the number is huge. At least to me it is.

Once I get a better handle on our monthly budget he will assist with that. I am very close and have a general idea. I am keeping a spread sheet like I always have done. Just that we do not have numbers for some of the bills yet, like the water bill and taxes and average electric and propane and so forth since we are just at the beginning of the year. Plus we have been withdrawing a lot of money for things needed in the house but that will stop drastically soon- or at least temporarily. He will also help with advice for complying with declared income for my ACA health plan.  I also need to call our accountant and see if they can send me a PDF file of our tax returns so I can forward it to the FA so he can see it. If not, I suppose I can scan the hard copy and email it him.

We obviously are not spending money on entertainment or eating out or traveling.  Not that we did that much before anyway. We are frugal and cautious mostly- but not totally- anyway. We are spending a lot of money on food and will be spending more so I can get our little freezer full. I can't believe how much it can hold! Glad we purchased it.

Anyway, speaking to the FA eased my worries. He even said he though our son being oblivious to his money in this case was probably a good thing. LOL!


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## geekette (Mar 17, 2020)

My one suggestion, aside from not logging in, is don't pay attention to the red numbers.  That is short term, which is not your bag.  Look at total account value.  Then think about what size that number was 20 years ago.  And imagine its size 20 years from now.

Then log off, feel smug, and go do something that makes you feel smart and fulfilled.


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## WinniWoman (Mar 17, 2020)

geekette said:


> My one suggestion, aside from not logging in, is don't pay attention to the red numbers.  That is short term, which is not your bag.  Look at total account value.  Then think about what size that number was 20 years ago.  And imagine its size 20 years from now.
> 
> Then log off, feel smug, and go do something that makes you feel smart and fulfilled.



I just realized something though. The FA does not have the recent total accurate numbers of our after tax cash accounts.  I have to send him an email
Tomorrow to give him the most recent numbers because we went through a lot of money since we sold our home back in Sept with The rental house and moving and closing expenses, etc. and now with withdrawing our monthly expenses and home project money from our savings since January.

I am surprised he didn’t ask for them.Hmmm....


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## artringwald (Mar 17, 2020)

I believe that re-balancing regularly is the best way to buy low and sell high. I retired in March of 2008, before the bubble burst. I picked 4 or 5 Vanguard funds and kept selling what was higher and buying what was lower. In spite of the 2008 bubble bursting, and the current plummet, my APY as of tonight has been 5.8%. If I had put it all in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the APY would have been 5.4%. Either way, stocks have earned so much more than any stable value investment could have. Of course, re-balancing doesn't work if you have to take any money out while stocks are down. It's a long term strategy.


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## Brett (Mar 18, 2020)

WinniWoman said:


> Spoke to our FA today. He has such a calm and down to earth manner and I felt much better afterwards. He feels we should just stay as we are as we have large cash positions. He mentioned we could afford to be opportunistic with stock purchases- being stocks are lower right now- but certainly did not need to be and could leave our money in cash if it makes us feel better, which it does. He said bond funds have probably run their course so even those can be sold for cash (maybe CD's) but we can leave those alone as well.
> 
> I happened to go on line today and saw that big negative number on my home page, but am ignoring it. We are only like 35% stock mutual funds anyway. Still- when they go down the number is huge. At least to me it is.
> 
> ...



keep calm and carry on
having large cash positions during pandemic times is good


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## CO skier (Apr 21, 2020)

An up-to-the-minute comparison of the 2000 and 2008 selloffs compared to 2020.  No one knows where the market is headed in this volatile environment, but it looks like the short-covering, Covid-19 relief rally may be ending and the risk is to the downside over the near term.  For anyone who may have been distressed when the market was 34% below the 2020 peak a month ago, now would be as good a time as any to lighten up on stock positions, then buy-in later at lower prices.


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