# [Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]



## geist1223

*THREAD CLOSED:* *A new thread has been started here: https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/n...-c-19-hawaii-when-will-hawaii-re-open.309304/*

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To day I got an email from Kilauea Military Camp on the BI saying they are accepting Reservations that start on June,1 2020.


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## csodjd

I'd buy a refundable ticket.


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## Luanne

The 15 days quarantine for those coming to Hawaii ends June 1.  That is unless the governor decides to extend it.  I wonder how much of the islands will be open that soon.


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## missmarie

I'm a scaredy cat about being exposed to germs on the plan. Might not be logical...


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## csodjd

Latest news from Hawaii:

Gov. David Ige announced the plan in a news conference at the state Capitol, saying Hawaii has successfully flattened the curve of coronavirus cases and now it’s time to focus on getting people back to work.

“We believe our community has the conditions to move into this next phase," he said, adding that “if you are going to patronize any of these businesses, we would encourage you to then return home because you are safer at home.”

The governor didn’t elaborate on how the state would beef up testing and contact tracing as more people venture into the community. Ige did stress that workers and customers need to follow social distancing guidelines — separating themselves by at least 6 feet — avoid gatherings, and wear cloth face masks.

And he added that he might need to reinstitute some orders if the number of COVID-19 cases begins to rise dramatically. “We do anticipate that there would be an increase in the number of cases and we definitely will be monitoring that,” he said. “We ask everyone to maintain their social distancing activities."

Businesses allowed to reopen Thursday include:

Shopping malls and retailers
Non-food agricultural companies, including florists
Astronomical observatories
Pet grooming services
Health care and social assistance, including elective surgery
Nonprofits that were previously not considered “essential”
Wholesale businesses


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## Pathways

csodjd said:


> Gov. David Ige announced the plan in a news conference at the state Capitol, saying Hawaii has successfully flattened the curve of coronavirus cases and now it’s time to focus on getting people back to work.



Shocked, but a smart move.  He's got to get everything on the islands open to see how well/long they can function financially without the tourists.


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## cybernaut

I wouldn’t bet on coming here. The local politicians seem to be trying to outdo themselves on the amount of control they have over people. On Kauai we haven’t had a new coronavirus case in 30 days and have no active active cases. Yet, we are still under lockdown; have to wear face masks; cannot walk on the beach; restaurants are closed; etc. In addition, there are no incoming flights from the mainland - so there is almost no possibility of contracting the virus. 

Under this environment of fear and control, it is very unlikely they will be welcoming visitors anytime soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## csodjd

Luanne said:


> The 15 days quarantine for those coming to Hawaii ends June 1.  That is unless the governor decides to extend it.  I wonder how much of the islands will be open that soon.


14-day. I'd expect it to be extended. They are not ready for opening the doors to tourists.


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## csodjd

Side note: Hawaiian Airlines just suspended almost all flights from the mainland through May 31. Just one flight daily from Seattle, LA, and SF to Honolulu. Previously they had only suspended through May 20.


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## Kapolei

I expect most things to open by June. But I don’t expect tourism to be back this summer unless there are some breakthroughs on the medical side.  The mainland isn’t getting better.  I wish we could open up to arrivals from a few select states, but I think it is an all or none situation.


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## csodjd

Pathways said:


> Shocked, but a smart move.  He's got to get everything on the islands open to see how well/long they can function financially without the tourists.


Hawaii is all but COVID free, and it may even be free. It DOES have some people still coming in, however, and so that's a continuing risk, albeit relatively small given the numbers. Nonetheless, they should be able to open up over the month of May so that by June 1 they are at a "new normal" for residents, and with enough time behind them to know if they have been successful at doing it without causing new spread. Then they can start looking at plans/options for reintroducing tourists. I can imagine a scenario where hotels are allowed to open at not more than 50% capacity, for instance, or maybe even one-third capacity. Perhaps combined with a requirement of a negative PCR test within 48 hours of departure, and fever screening upon arrival. Required mask use in hotels. Social distancing outside. Who knows. They have plenty of smart people to figure out how to do it with the least risk/burden.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Hawaii is all but COVID free, and it may even be free. It DOES have some people still coming in, however, and so that's a continuing risk, albeit relatively small given the numbers. Nonetheless, they should be able to open up over the month of May so that by June 1 they are at a "new normal" for residents, and with enough time behind them to know if they have been successful at doing it without causing new spread. Then they can start looking at plans/options for reintroducing tourists. I can imagine a scenario where hotels are allowed to open at not more than 50% capacity, for instance, or maybe even one-third capacity. Perhaps combined with a requirement of a negative PCR test within 48 hours of departure, and fever screening upon arrival. Required mask use in hotels. Social distancing outside. Who knows. They have plenty of smart people to figure out how to do it with the least risk/burden.



Some interesting thoughts; I will give my reaction.   I totally agree with the preboard testing to prevent people with the desease from boarding, contaiminating other passengers and crew, and bring the virus to Hawaii.  I believe that the fever screening upon arrival is too late.  

If masks use and social distancing is still necessary clearly Honolulu can't have anywhere near the numbers of tourists and can't conduct many of the activities that are typical for us during our stays.  Perhaps other areas of Hawaii could.  

If hotels would only be allowed to open at 50% capacity or so would that also be applicable to timesharing?  If so I believe that some resorts have or will have over booked their capacity.  How would that be handled?


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## DaveNV

Tamaradarann said:


> I totally agree with the preboard testing to prevent people with the desease from boarding, contaiminating other passengers and crew, and bring the virus to Hawaii.  I believe that the fever screening upon arrival is too late.



And what about all those visitors coming to Hawaii from other countries?  Would they be as vigilant in advance of air travel? I suspect not.

Dave


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## JIMinNC

csodjd said:


> Perhaps combined with a requirement of a negative PCR test within 48 hours of departure, and fever screening upon arrival.



The thing that concerns me about a negative PCR test requirement is given the limitations on testing capacity and the fact that everything I've read says it's not going to be easy to ramp up testing to just do the necessary screening and contact tracing for regular medical/public health purposes, I have a hard time seeing how we could allocate the limited testing capacity to discretionary travel any time soon. Hawaii would seem to have to convince every state to include "pending travel to Hawaii" as a valid reason to approve a test for a traveler that has no other symptoms.


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## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> The thing that concerns me about a negative PCR test requirement is given the limitations on testing capacity and the fact that everything I've read says it's not going to be easy to ramp up testing to just do the necessary screening and contact tracing for regular medical/public health purposes, I have a hard time seeing how we could allocate the limited testing capacity to discretionary travel any time soon. Hawaii would seem to have to convince every state to include "pending travel to Hawaii" as a valid reason to approve a test for a traveler that has no other symptoms.








						ID NOW™ COVID-19
					

The ID NOW™ COVID-19 assay is now available for use on the ID NOW platform under U.S. Food and Drug Administration Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). The ID NOW™ COVID-19 rapid test delivers high-quality molecular positive results in as little as 5 minutes, targeting the coronavirus (COVID-19)...




					www.alere.com
				




There is fast testing now available. I presume/hope that by mid-late summer there will be no problems obtaining a test for the presence or absence of viral RNA in a sample, and that the results will be quick.


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## csodjd

DaveNW said:


> And what about all those visitors coming to Hawaii from other countries?  Would they be as vigilant in advance of air travel? I suspect not.
> 
> Dave


Hawaii is going to have to use their judgment and require that the origin country satisfy their requirements. But just as you cannot board the flight from another country without a passport, they can easily add without a certification issued within 48 hours of a negative test.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Some interesting thoughts; I will give my reaction.   I totally agree with the preboard testing to prevent people with the desease from boarding, contaiminating other passengers and crew, and bring the virus to Hawaii.  I believe that the fever screening upon arrival is too late.
> 
> If masks use and social distancing is still necessary clearly Honolulu can't have anywhere near the numbers of tourists and can't conduct many of the activities that are typical for us during our stays.  Perhaps other areas of Hawaii could.
> 
> If hotels would only be allowed to open at 50% capacity or so would that also be applicable to timesharing?  If so I believe that some resorts have or will have over booked their capacity.  How would that be handled?


As for the fever screening, it's just a second level which can catch a few that are tested negative, but have a fever. They get quarantined and retested. 

I see masking and social distancing as a one or the other proposition. If you are more than six feet, your chance of infecting someone are very small, especially if you don't cough or sneeze at them. The mask is needed if you come within six feet to reduce your chance of infecting someone. In the confines of Honolulu, masking will likely be required for a while, though on the beach and in other spacious places probably not. Other locations in Hawaii are easier for social distancing. 

Of course there are issues of rental cars, taxis, etc. But all can be thought through and addressed. But it's not going to be the same experience, not until there is a widespread vaccine in use. It's just not going to be the same. 

I would think the 50% (or whatever) capacity would apply to any multi-use/multi-owner short-term stay facility. Hotels, motels, timeshares, VRBO rentals, etc. Hotels can address it however they want. First come first serve. Priority based on status. Owners before non-owners. Etc.


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## MOXJO7282

It will be interesting to see what they decide because it's likely Hawaii will get to no new cases and have that for weeks but likely will remain closed. So they will be watching the rest of the country and will make their decision on how the rest of the country is doing I think. The other thing is you can keep foreigners out and that would reduce traffic fairly significantly I would think.


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## csodjd

MOXJO7282 said:


> It will be interesting to see what they decide because it's likely Hawaii will get to no new cases and have that for weeks but likely will remain closed. So they will be watching the rest of the country and will make their decision on how the rest of the country is doing I think. The other thing is you can keep foreigners out and that would reduce traffic fairly significantly I would think.


If you keep people flying from outside the US out, you probably achieve a 50% or so reduction. But, it may also be that some of those countries will be safer than some of the US States, which is sad.


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## geist1223

csodjd said:


> If you keep people flying from outside the US out, you probably achieve a 50% or so reduction. But, it may also be that some of those countries will be safer than some of the US States, which is sad.



Like New Zealand and Australia.


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## PigsDad

A


geist1223 said:


> Like New Zealand and Australia.


And Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea...

Kurt


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## Tamaradarann

DaveNW said:


> And what about all those visitors coming to Hawaii from other countries?  Would they be as vigilant in advance of air travel? I suspect not.
> 
> Dave



Perhaps there needs to be a certifcation by a medical professional to be given to the passenger to get on the plane and to check into your hotel or timeshare just as you need to show a driver license or passport.


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## gdrj

csodjd said:


> If you keep people flying from outside the US out, you probably achieve a 50% or so reduction. But, it may also be that some of those countries will be safer than some of the US States, which is sad.



I beleive I heard in one of the press conference when they start flying again it will be
1-inter-island first
2-Domestic
3-Some time after that International


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## easyrider

It looks like Hawaii will likely extend the travel quarantine. I really don't blame them one bit because the reality is Hawaii has very limited medical resources which could be easily over burdened because of one infected tourist at the wrong place at the right time.

Bill









						Hawai‘i Senate COVID-19 Committee Reports Travel Quarantine Will Likely be Extended | Maui Now
					

The Hawai‘i State Senate Special Committee on COVID-19 discussed CARES Act aid, the likely extension of the 14-day travel quarantine, and increased costs associated with airport operations amid the ongoing pandemic.




					mauinow.com


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## csodjd

easyrider said:


> It looks like Hawaii will likely extend the travel quarantine. I really don't blame them one bit because the reality is Hawaii has very limited medical resources which could be easily over burdened because of one infected tourist at the wrong place at the right time.
> 
> Bill


I don't blame them, currently, but for a very different reason. I don't blame them because they don't yet have in place the necessary systems, protocols, etc., to provide adequate protection against new community spread. With testing of incoming people, testing of symptomatic people, and contact tracing -- none of which was available when the virus first showed up -- Hawaii has more than adequate medical resources and would NOT be over burdened (they didn't overwhelm their resources even when they did not have any of those things). 

It is not about the medical resources. It is about the ability to minimize risk and contain/prevent community spread.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I don't blame them, currently, but for a very different reason. I don't blame them because they don't yet have in place the necessary systems, protocols, etc., to provide adequate protection against new community spread. With testing of incoming people, testing of symptomatic people, and contact tracing -- none of which was available when the virus first showed up -- Hawaii has more than adequate medical resources and would NOT be over burdened (they didn't overwhelm their resources even when they did not have any of those things).
> 
> It is not about the medical resources. It is about the ability to minimize risk and contain/prevent community spread.



I understand your point that it is essential to have the necessary systems, protocols etc in place,  however, the bottom line in the end is that Hawaii would not have adequate medical resources if the took off the quarantine and opened up May 15th.   

If Hawaii took off the quarantine and opened up May 15th without the necessary systems, protocols etc. many people would be coming to the island very shortly.  Some would be bring the virus.  In awhile there would be community spread in addtion to more people coming with the virus.  The medical resources could be overwhelmed.  They didn't overwhelm their medical resources when they did not have those things because Governor Ige put the 14 day quarantine in place and in effect stopped the tourists from coming!


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I understand your point that it is essential to have the necessary systems, protocols etc in place,  however, the bottom line in the end is that Hawaii would not have adequate medical resources if the took off the quarantine and opened up May 15th.
> 
> If Hawaii took off the quarantine and opened up May 15th without the necessary systems, protocols etc. many people would be coming to the island very shortly.  Some would be bring the virus.  In awhile there would be community spread in addtion to more people coming with the virus.  The medical resources could be overwhelmed.  They didn't overwhelm their medical resources when they did not have those things because Governor Ige put the 14 day quarantine in place and in effect stopped the tourists from coming!


By the time tourists stopped arriving in Hawaii in March there was wildly out of control community spread already underway. Today, with what we know, with social distancing, less crowding, face coverings, and capable testing, the risk is exponentially less than it was the day he put the quarantine in place on March 21 when restaurants were packed, airplanes were packed, etc. On March 20, how many tourists do you think were IN Hawaii carrying the virus, and spreading it unknowingly? Hundreds, I'm sure, if not thousands, assuming in the prior 7 days about 200,000 came into Hawaii.

Of course I'm certainly not advocating opening anything without a plan in place to mitigate risk. But Hawaii cannot wait until risk is mitigated to zero. It should wait until the risk is mitigated to a manageable level. There is probably no state in the Country in a better position to do that than Hawaii, even with its relatively small medical care capabilities. Even if some come in with the virus due to, say, false negative testing, as would likely happen, the use of face masks, hand sanitizing, touch-surface sanitizing, social distancing, limited eat-in restaurants, and other very basic steps would virtually eliminate spread. R0 would be way < 1.0. Add tracing and testing and there would be NO meaningful spread, save for that caused by carelessness and rule-breaking.


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## lynne

That is all well and good, however people are not social distancing as required and are currently breakin the stay at home order.  Why do you think that visitors would comply with the social distancing protocol when on vacation?  Two very recent examples?









						HFD Rescues Injured Hiker From Waipio Valley Despite Darkness | Big Island Now
					

It was the second time over the weekend HFD conducted a helicopter rescue for a hiker disobeying Hawai‘i’s mandatory stay-at-home order due to the COVID-19 pandemic.




					bigislandnow.com
				











						HFD Rescues Ill Hiker | Big Island Now
					

The Hawai‘i Fire Department on Sunday rescued a hiker who fell ill in the wilderness.




					bigislandnow.com


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## amy241

lynne said:


> That is all well and good, however people are not social distancing as required and are currently breakin the stay at home order.  Why do you think that visitors would comply with the social distancing protocol when on vacation?  Two very recent examples?
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> HFD Rescues Injured Hiker From Waipio Valley Despite Darkness | Big Island Now
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Both of these stories involve residents not tourists so not really examples but it could have easily been tourists.


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## lynne

amy241 said:


> Both of these stories involve residents not tourists so not really examples but it could have easily been tourists.


You are correct Amy, these were residents.  My point was that residents are not adhering to the stay at home order so how can we expect visitors to comply when they are on vacation and only here for a limited time.


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## amy241

lynne said:


> You are correct Amy, these were residents.  My point was that residents are not adhering to the stay at home order so how can we expect visitors to comply when they are on vacation and only here for a limited time.



I hear you! That’s a very good point. Not everyone feels inclined to follow rules.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> By the time tourists stopped arriving in Hawaii in March there was wildly out of control community spread already underway. Today, with what we know, with social distancing, less crowding, face coverings, and capable testing, the risk is exponentially less than it was the day he put the quarantine in place on March 21 when restaurants were packed, airplanes were packed, etc. On March 20, how many tourists do you think were IN Hawaii carrying the virus, and spreading it unknowingly? Hundreds, I'm sure, if not thousands, assuming in the prior 7 days about 200,000 came into Hawaii.
> 
> Of course I'm certainly not advocating opening anything without a plan in place to mitigate risk. But Hawaii cannot wait until risk is mitigated to zero. It should wait until the risk is mitigated to a manageable level. There is probably no state in the Country in a better position to do that than Hawaii, even with its relatively small medical care capabilities. Even if some come in with the virus due to, say, false negative testing, as would likely happen, the use of face masks, hand sanitizing, touch-surface sanitizing, social distancing, limited eat-in restaurants, and other very basic steps would virtually eliminate spread. R0 would be way < 1.0. Add tracing and testing and there would be NO meaningful spread, save for that caused by carelessness and rule-breaking.



We were in the Lagoon Tower on March 21st and had reservations until May 2.  Even though not yet in effect the 14 day quanantine was annouced and plane travel and the numbe of tourist in Hawaii was already reduced due to the virus concerns all over the world.  There were 76 confirmed cases to date at that time.  There was some, but very little community spread at that time.  Social distancing was already ordered.  The Hale Koa was closed.  They had already closed 4 of the buildings at the Hilton Hawaiian Village.  Even though we wanted to stay and felt staying would be safer than flying back to NY they told us that the census of guests at the Hilton Hawaiian Village very low and in a week we were going to be the only ones left so they felt they were going to close.  No new guests were checking in.  The streets were already comparently very empty, restaurants only had take out, the beaches were closed, many of the stores on Kalakaua and the Mall were closed.  We knew the quarantine would prevent most tourists from coming in and it was going to get worse.  We left on the second to last direct flight to NY.  

There is great pent up desire to get back to normal.  Hawaii has always been a prime vacation destination and if the 14 day quarantine is lifted there will be alot of people coming in.  No one knows how many cases will be brought.  At this time the Governor does not want to take that chance.  I wouldn't either.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> There was some, but very little community spread at that time.


I believe there may have been little DETECTED or recognized community spread. But it is not credible that the community spread started only AFTER tourists stopped coming and quarantine's started. Think about it. The seeds of the virus were already there, being spread completely undetected. You're not accounting for the roughly two-week incubation or the roughly 50% asymptomatic cases. The community spread was WELL underway by mid-March, just as it was everywhere else. It's like throwing a big handfuls of seeds out in into a field and saying there's nothing growing there. It's growing, you just don't know until things start springing up two weeks later.


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## csodjd

lynne said:


> That is all well and good, however people are not social distancing as required and are currently breakin the stay at home order.  Why do you think that visitors would comply with the social distancing protocol when on vacation?  Two very recent examples?
> 
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> HFD Rescues Injured Hiker From Waipio Valley Despite Darkness | Big Island Now
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> HFD Rescues Ill Hiker | Big Island Now
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> bigislandnow.com


There will always be rule breakers. But just because someone got within six feet doesn't mean pow, you're infected. None of this occurs in a vacuum. It's part of a system. If Hawaii requires a test for infection either the day of departure or upon arrival, right there, at that first step, you've probably eliminated most of the new active infection. Not all. But most. They also can limit the number coming in each day, from the 30k typical, to maybe 2500 visitors. Then you have face coverings and social distancing. Taken together, the risk of spreading infection is now, in this scenario, quite small. Very few infections come in, and hopefully those few are not in the rule-breaking group. But, at the backend, you also have tracing and isolation that can easily contain any spread.

I would submit that with testing as a condition of arriving, masks, social distancing, eliminating crowed spaces, increased sanitizing of touch surfaces, and active tracing Hawaii will have FAR FAR less risk or infection or spread than they had in March.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I believe there may have been little DETECTED or recognized community spread. But it is not credible that the community spread started only AFTER tourists stopped coming and quarantine's started. Think about it. The seeds of the virus were already there, being spread completely undetected. You're not accounting for the roughly two-week incubation or the roughly 50% asymptomatic cases. The community spread was WELL underway by mid-March, just as it was everywhere else. It's like throwing a big handfuls of seeds out in into a field and saying there's nothing growing there. It's growing, you just don't know until things start springing up two weeks later.



I agree with most of your thoughts here.   I also agree with much of what you say in the next post about the need for testing, sanitation, masks, social distancing.  I believe that Hawaii needs to stay closed and keep the 14 day quarantine at the present time.  Where we disagree is:

- At this time they don't have a testing system in place for all incoming passengers.  I believe it needs to be before allincoming flights.
- Once the 14 day quarantine requirement is lifted the number of visitors will exceed 2500.  In fact once school is out it may return to close to 30K.
- People are getting tired of wearing masks.  The number that will not wear them could be significant particularly on a hot sunny beach.
- With so few people in Waikiki at present it is easy to social distance.  As the number of tourist increases significantly social distancing will decrease.
- With the nunber of people coming into Hawaii now it would be easy to do do testing and tracing of those that are symptomatic and since there are so few cases the chances of spread are minimum.   However, once the number of tourist increases significantly this will not be a manageable effort and the amount of spread will be greater.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> - At this time they don't have a testing system in place for all incoming passengers. I believe it needs to be before all incoming flights.
> - Once the 14 day quarantine requirement is lifted the number of visitors will exceed 2500. In fact once school is out it may return to close to 30K.
> - People are getting tired of wearing masks. The number that will not wear them could be significant particularly on a hot sunny beach.
> - With so few people in Waikiki at present it is easy to social distance. As the number of tourist increases significantly social distancing will decrease.
> - With the nunber of people coming into Hawaii now it would be easy to do do testing and tracing of those that are symptomatic and since there are so few cases the chances of spread are minimum. However, once the number of tourist increases significantly this will not be a manageable effort and the amount of spread will be greater.


We don't disagree on the first point at all. I just said that they need to be working on that now so it is ready when the time comes. 
On the second point, if allowed, yes, you are correct. My suggestion is that the state can exercise some control over that because there's only one way in, air. So they can limit the number of arriving flights as they ramp up the ability to handle incoming tourists. 
On wearing masks, it's less or not necessary where you are six feet from anyone. The six-foot distance and the masks are to achieve the same purpose -- keep virus from leaving you and reaching someone else. (Masks also keep you from leaving virus on tables, etc.). If you're on the beach, 10 feet from the next social group, a mask does nothing. If you're in a line waiting to pick up food, a mask does help. So there will need to be some thought about it. That said, a lot of people will wear masks. We should not be unwilling to move ahead because of the risk of rule breakers. That's basically letting them win. 
On your next point, the difficulties of social distancing, you have to step back to the starting premise (and this applies to masks also). That premise is that there are very few people coming in that are in fact infected -- because they've all been tested. Assuming 5% of people are unknowingly infected, a number probably well above reality, and assuming a 15% false negative rate, that's .75%. If 2500 people are coming in, that's not many infected people, less than 20, and they are spread around Hawaii. The risk then of infection because there are SOME instances of inadequate social distancing or not wearing a mask is quite small. 

And that brings us to your final point, the only one we really disagree on. I disagree and I think ALL the data supports my view. We need only look at Hawaii in early March, when the first orders were going into place. At that time 30,000/day were coming in from around the world unchecked, there was virus across the state, unknown infected people, community spread, asymptomatic people, no testing at all, and no treatment protocols. It was the wild west. And the state managed it quite well. Very few died. The hospital system was never overrun. Compare that to now, where there is testing, we know a lot, soon we'll have tracing apps, etc. (One country is having restaurants ask patrons to provide their name and contact info so that IF tracing is needed, they can be easily contacted. Clever idea.) You are making a supposition for which there is no factual support, no evidence, and is contrary to the recent experience. I believe the state has demonstrated it can MANAGE a known enemy.


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## csodjd

This is from an article today in Hawaii News Now:

 By  HNN Staff |  May 11, 2020 at 2:22 PM HST - Updated May 11 at 8:40 PM 
***

“At some point, we have to accept risk, and we have to accept the fact that people will become infected,” said Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hara, the state’s incident commander for coronavirus response. “We need to try to push it to the threshold of what our healthcare system can handle without exceeding the ICU and the ventilator capacity.” ... “If we let the economy go the way it’s going, I feel there could be significant civil unrest that could lead to civil disobedience and, in the worst case civil disturbance and rioting,” Maj. Gen. Hara said.

It is an important point. Hawaii cannot be made and kept COVID free, at least not without total irreparable economic destruction. You cannot tax the residents enough to make up for the lost tourism revenue to governmental operations. And the residents cannot circulate enough money among themselves to support an economy. They need tourism. That means they must accept risk. I'm not sure they need to "push it to the threshold." But they also cannot wait until they can ensure a virus free society, because that's an unattainable goal. This virus exists. Just like TB, AIDS, and a bunch of other illnesses. They should open slowly so they can manage infection as they go. But that "opening" must cross into tourism, and not stop at that step just because it means the virus will be back. Yes, it will be back. But this time the state is ready for it.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> This is from an article today in Hawaii News Now:
> 
> By  HNN Staff |  May 11, 2020 at 2:22 PM HST - Updated May 11 at 8:40 PM
> ***
> 
> “At some point, we have to accept risk, and we have to accept the fact that people will become infected,” said Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hara, the state’s incident commander for coronavirus response. “We need to try to push it to the threshold of what our healthcare system can handle without exceeding the ICU and the ventilator capacity.” ... “If we let the economy go the way it’s going, I feel there could be significant civil unrest that could lead to civil disobedience and, in the worst case civil disturbance and rioting,” Maj. Gen. Hara said.
> 
> It is an important point. Hawaii cannot be made and kept COVID free, at least not without total irreparable economic destruction. You cannot tax the residents enough to make up for the lost tourism revenue to governmental operations. And the residents cannot circulate enough money among themselves to support an economy. They need tourism. That means they must accept risk. I'm not sure they need to "push it to the threshold." But they also cannot wait until they can ensure a virus free society, because that's an unattainable goal. This virus exists. Just like TB, AIDS, and a bunch of other illnesses. They should open slowly so they can manage infection as they go. But that "opening" must cross into tourism, and not stop at that step just because it means the virus will be back. Yes, it will be back. But this time the state is ready for it.



I agree with you and Major General Hara, Hawaii must be opened up soon.   Hawaii needs tourists to have a viable economy.  I've stated that before on this thread.  For me the most important protection point is testing and getting results before getting on the plane.  If that can be done I am in total support of Hawaii opening.  Since I don't think that masks, social distancing, and tracing will work once thousands of visitors come each day and I wouldn't rely on those methods to control the spread of infection.

I believe that rather than trying to limit the number of visitors that come each day the limiting crtieria should be the number of passengers that can be tested with results before getting on the plane.  I believe that would prevent the spread effectively enough to allow Hawaii to start the opening process.  I feel it is really important economically for Hawaii to be open by summer when the prime vacation period in the US starts which is about a month from now.


----------



## lynne

Gov. Ige does not believe that there will be civil unrest in the state








						Gov. Ige: Civil unrest unlikely - West Hawaii Today
					

Gov. David Ige said Monday he doesn’t think Hawaii’s current economic crisis in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to civil unrest.




					www.westhawaiitoday.com
				




As some suggested that Hawaii limit the number of planes/visitors, they simply cannot as the FAA has jurisdiction and not the state of Hawaii.
Josh Green is introducing a plan to bring tourism back but it will be based on testing prior to getting on an aircraft.   








						Green Announces ‘Travel With Aloha’ Program | Big Island Now
					

Lieutenant Governor Josh Green on Monday announced his “Travel With Aloha” initiative, which proposes all those who want to travel to Hawai‘i receive a rapid turnaround test for COVID-19.




					bigislandnow.com


----------



## slip

The Lt. Governor has hinted that restruants and Salons may be able to open by 05-25. 

I don’t see all travel opening for summer unless things change very quickly. We may get more information once inter-island travel is opened but they have been closed lipped on that also.


----------



## csodjd

Testing before getting on the plane has obvious and numerous advantages. The disadvantage is that Hawaii does not then have actual control over it. Using Austria as an example, they are doing it themselves upon arrival. If you pass their test, you're free to go. If you do not, you must fly back or quarantine.

But it can all be handled much like passports. You don't get on a plane to the US without showing your passport, and you then do so again in customs when you arrive. There is a model there that can be adapted to testing.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> The Lt. Governor has hinted that restruants and Salons may be able to open by 05-25.
> 
> I don’t see all travel opening for summer unless things change very quickly. We may get more information once inter-island travel is opened but they have been closed lipped on that also.


Seems to me the easy thing is to leave the 14-day quarantine order in place, and create exceptions to it. For instance, if you are tested within 24 hours of arrival and have a properly issued (not sure what that is) certification of negative result, the quarantine would not apply. Or, perhaps, Hawaii can empower "at home" testing services that are state-authorized. Everyone is subject to quarantine until they are tested at their location and given an all clear.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> Seems to me the easy thing is to leave the 14-day quarantine order in place, and create exceptions to it. For instance, if you are tested within 24 hours of arrival and have a properly issued (not sure what that is) certification of negative result, the quarantine would not apply. Or, perhaps, Hawaii can empower "at home" testing services that are state-authorized. Everyone is subject to quarantine until they are tested at their location and given an all clear.



They have a lot of things to think about and the only thing we can do is wait and see what they come up with and decide on.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> They have a lot of things to think about and the only thing we can do is wait and see what they come up with and decide on.


That is true. It would be nice, perhaps comforting, for those in charge, the Governor, Mayors, etc., to at least acknowledge they know they need to get there and are working on how to make that happen. So far, from what I've read/seen, they are largely if not entirely ignoring in their public statements the tourism part of the recovery equation.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> That is true. It would be nice, perhaps comforting, for those in charge, the Governor, Mayors, etc., to at least acknowledge they know they need to get there and are working on how to make that happen. So far, from what I've read/seen, they are largely if not entirely ignoring in their public statements the tourism part of the recovery equation.



I listen to the Governor’s and the Honolulu Mayors press conferences everyday as part of my job and they both being very vague.

The Lt. Governor has hinted that Salons and Restaurants May be able to open on 05-25 but that was not official.


----------



## GaryDouglas

I heard that HI will make an announcement tomorrow, Thursday.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Seems to me the easy thing is to leave the 14-day quarantine order in place, and create exceptions to it. For instance, if you are tested within 24 hours of arrival and have a properly issued (not sure what that is) certification of negative result, the quarantine would not apply. Or, perhaps, Hawaii can empower "at home" testing services that are state-authorized. Everyone is subject to quarantine until they are tested at their location and given an all clear.


You typically get a lab report when you have a lab test to say you are positive or negative for something or the value and if that is within the normal range.  The lab report should be sufficient to have the quarantine not apply.  However, the labs would need to be on board with giving you and e-mailing you the results quickly so that you could board your plane if it is done before boarding which is the preferred method to avoid virus spread. 

If it is done after you arrive it would allow you to be released from quarantine if it is negative, but if it is positive a major problem would be created tracking all the people you came in contact with at the airports, on the plane, and since you arrived.  Not smart at all.

Furthermore, I would take a page from what Hawaii did when they let people disembark from the ship in Honolulu that was contaminated with the virus.  They escorted all the passengers by a special bus to the airport and put them on a plane to go away.  If they don't insist on everyone be tested with a negative result before they get on a plane to Hawaii, when they get off the plane if they don't have a lab certificate they are escorted to their accomodations for the 14 day quarantine so they don't start to contaminate others in Hawaii if they have the virus.


----------



## csodjd

GaryDouglas said:


> I heard that HI will make an announcement tomorrow, Thursday.


I read this morning in a Newsweek interview that they are looking at testing before flying to the Island and are working on a proposed calendar for reopening for tourism based on the ability get that done. It seemed a bit overly hopeful because he said people would be tested at home before the come to the airport, but that's obviously not an ability that exists right now. And for many places you cannot get tested unless you "qualify" based on various criteria. (LA County now allows anyone to get tested that wants it, but that's the rare exception I believe.) So a more robust testing capability would be needed -- which wasn't helped with the report of the Abbott Lab quick test system possibly having a very high false negative problem.


----------



## amy241

Mandatory quarantine was extended through June yesterday - so Hawaii will not re-open in June.









						Hawaii’s economy is reopening, but tourism remains on lockdown
					

Hawaii’s low COVID-19 infection and mortality rates have increased calls to start reopening the state’s economy — but support to restart tourism is still mixed.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## csodjd

amy241 said:


> Mandatory quarantine was extended through June yesterday - so Hawaii will not re-open in June.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii’s economy is reopening, but tourism remains on lockdown
> 
> 
> Hawaii’s low COVID-19 infection and mortality rates have increased calls to start reopening the state’s economy — but support to restart tourism is still mixed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com


That seems expected. The hope is that by JULY they'll have some plans underway where they can start making exceptions to the quarantines. That now gives them a solid six weeks to figure things out. Even if tourists are not coming in during July, my guess is they'll have the plans and schedule by then. They kind of have to.


----------



## bnoble

amy241 said:


> Mandatory quarantine was extended through June yesterday - so Hawaii will not re-open in June.


I think only Kauai has extended...at least so far.


----------



## csodjd

amy241 said:


> Mandatory quarantine was extended through June yesterday - so Hawaii will not re-open in June.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii’s economy is reopening, but tourism remains on lockdown
> 
> 
> Hawaii’s low COVID-19 infection and mortality rates have increased calls to start reopening the state’s economy — but support to restart tourism is still mixed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com


The article, BTW, says only Kauai was extended to end of June. The State has not done that yet. Seems likely they will though.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> On wearing masks, it's less or not necessary where you are six feet from anyone. The six-foot distance and the masks are to achieve the same purpose -- keep virus from leaving you and reaching someone else. (Masks also keep you from leaving virus on tables, etc.).



Do you have links to support this belief? 

For reference:


> “As far as face masks versus social distancing by at least 6 feet, the face masks do not replace social distancing,” said Peter Gulick, an infectious disease specialist and professor of medicine at Michigan State University.











						No, Face Masks Do Not Replace Social Distancing. Here's Why.
					

Follow this expert advice when it comes to protection measures during the coronavirus pandemic.




					www.huffpost.com


----------



## slip

Yes, the article only mentioned Kauai extending see below. We may find out today for the rest of the state.

Kauai Mayor Derek S.K. Kawakami signed an emergency rule Wednesday to extend the mandatory 14-day self-quarantine for incoming passengers to Kauai through June. Ige hasn’t indicated if he’ll extend the state’s quarantine past May 31, but did approve Kawakami’s request.


----------



## TXTortoise

Hawai‘i Tourism Now: Lt. Gov. Josh Green Answers Questions About the Future of Hawai‘i’s Tourism Industry | Maui Now
					

Hawai’i Lieutenant Governor Josh Green sits down with Pacific Media Group COO and MauiNow director, Jack Dugan to answer questions regarding tourism’s role in Hawai’i’s economy, future and the laid-off residents of the state. Hawai’i has the lowest mortality rates in the nation and has flattened...




					mauinow.com
				




Based on the above linked video between Hawaii Tourism Now and the Lt. Governor, I'd make plans based on the belief that mainland travel will require a negative test within X days of departure or be subject to quarantine on the islands.  It sounds like they would focus on getting non-tourist activities up and running, then address mainland travel with pre-test.

Reading in a lot between the lines, but with the fall/winter being their big concern at this point, I'd not be optimistic about vacation travel before October...unless a pre-test process is successfully tested by Aug/Sep.  And requirements could easily vary by island, with Kauai being the most at risk with minimal medical infrastructure.


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> Do you have links to support this belief?
> 
> For reference:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No, Face Masks Do Not Replace Social Distancing. Here's Why.
> 
> 
> Follow this expert advice when it comes to protection measures during the coronavirus pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.huffpost.com


That is correct. I misspoke in the sense that in terms of you infecting someone else, both serve that purpose. But a face mask will not adequately protect you from being infected by another person that coughs or sneezes and you're nearby. If you read the article you posted, what it basically says is that the 6ft distance is what you need. The mask is nice, but it is the 6ft distance that is the key to prevent you from getting infected. The inference is that if you maintain the 6ft distance, the mask isn't essential or necessary, but the converse is not true.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

I would gladly get tested prior to travel.  I have already done the antibody test, but that is not the test they will be looking for. I think the main challenge to requiring a clear test result prior to travel is testing capacity.  From what i hear on the news, there is still a shortage of test for people that think they are sick.  I have to think people wanting to go on vacation or travel for business will have pretty low priority for testing.

That ultimately means Hawaii will have to wait for the other states to get things in order before they can open back up.


----------



## csodjd

1Kflyerguy said:


> I would gladly get tested prior to travel.  I have already done the antibody test, but that is not the test they will be looking for. I think the main challenge to requiring a clear test result prior to travel is testing capacity.  From what i hear on the news, there is still a shortage of test for people that think they are sick.  I have to think people wanting to go on vacation or travel for business will have pretty low priority for testing.
> 
> That ultimately means Hawaii will have to wait for the other states to get things in order before they can open back up.


Not only would I gladly get tested, I'd be thrilled if everyone on the plane HAD to get tested before they got on. I'll bet the flight attendants would like that even more.

Yes, there do appear to be shortages. But that's evolving and changing. Los Angeles is now offering free tests for anyone that wants one. Just go online and sign up. And saying people going on vacation is low priority may be missing some important points. People going on vacation puts bodies on airplanes, generates tax revenue and helps Hawaii recover. It's not trivial.


----------



## lprstn

Just announced yesterday extended until JUNE 30, 2020...


----------



## Luanne

lprstn said:


> Just announced yesterday extended until JUNE 30, 2020...


The announcement yesterday was just for Kauai.  There was an announcement today that extended it for the entire state.


----------



## slip

It’s official now for the whole state.


----------



## Tamaradarann

lprstn said:


> Just announced yesterday extended until JUNE 30, 2020...



That means that the Hospitality Industry will need to hold up on implementing any plans to prepare to reopen (Bringing back staff, training staff, cleaning all facilities) Representives of that industry said they would need upto 60 days to do that.  Therefore, that basically kills the prime summer travel season for Hawaii.  For a number of months I have been thinking that while the virus has hurt Hawaii tourist sector at least May and June are not prime months like July and August when schools are closed.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> That means that the Hospitality Industry will need to hold up on implementing any plans to prepare to reopen (Bringing back staff, training staff, cleaning all facilities) Representives of that industry said they would need upto 60 days to do that.  Therefore, that basically kills the prime summer travel season for Hawaii.  For a number of months I have been thinking that while the virus has hurt Hawaii tourist sector at least May and June are not prime months like July and August when schools are closed.


It may take "up to 60 days" across the board, but I suspect some facilities, especially those like the Hilton's and Marriott's of the world, can get operational much quicker. I'm expecting a timeline that starts opening to tourism from the US in perhaps August, September at the latest. Aug 1 still allows another 2 1/2 months to eliminate any virus on the islands, train contact tracers, gets businesses open (with the "new normal" implemented), and, most importantly, get pre-flight testing requirements and protocols in place. 

Putting some perspective on that timeline of 2 1/2 months, remember that this entire "event" is about 2 1/2  months old. It seems like forever, but it's really happened very, very, fast. On Feb 29 it was Hawaii as usual. June 30 sounds like they've extended the orders forever. That's six weeks. Our sense of time has gotten distorted.


----------



## bnoble

csodjd said:


> most importantly, get pre-flight testing requirements and protocols in place.


I agree that this is the most important part. It's also the part over which Hawaii has the least control...so maybe not easy?


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> It may take "up to 60 days" across the board, but I suspect some facilities, especially those like the Hilton's and Marriott's of the world, can get operational much quicker. I'm expecting a timeline that starts opening to tourism from the US in perhaps August, September at the latest. Aug 1 still allows another 2 1/2 months to eliminate any virus on the islands, train contact tracers, gets businesses open (with the "new normal" implemented), and, most importantly, get pre-flight testing requirements and protocols in place.
> 
> Putting some perspective on that timeline of 2 1/2 months, remember that this entire "event" is about 2 1/2  months old. It seems like forever, but it's really happened very, very, fast. On Feb 29 it was Hawaii as usual. June 30 sounds like they've extended the orders forever. That's six weeks. Our sense of time has gotten distorted.



I agree with you except on one point.  Governor Ige didn't say give a thumbs up to eliminating the 14 day quarantine on July 1 or August 1 or September 1 so the timeline for resorts and hotels to sell and book nights and tourists to reserve nights and book airline tickets can't start in earnest.  In addition there is the concern over when things do open up what will happen so far as the spread.  Will my family consider it safe enough to go.   

I am a Professional Operations Manager give me a deadline or a commencement date so I can plan and work toward that date.  Without that I am lost on how to optimize the use of my resources to accomplish the goal.

From a personal perspective I am having a difficult time booking the timeshare nights I want since I am dealing with 3 perspective start dates Mid September, Mid November and early January.  Which is it???  Please tell me know so I can cancel the ones I don't need and use the points for the one that is it.  If I am having these problems for just one small family one can only imagine what the managers of resorts, conventions, and tours are going through where it involves perhaps thousand of people and a great deal of money.


----------



## csodjd

bnoble said:


> I agree that this is the most important part. It's also the part over which Hawaii has the least control...so maybe not easy?


Well, if the reporting is correct, they have already asked the FAA for permission. The control rests with their authority over the planes and passengers. If they say nobody can get off the plane if they have not been tested, and they work with the airlines to enable the testing to demonstrated as part of boarding, they can make it happen. It is in everyone's best interest. There's really no opposition side. Those airlines WANT badly to have airplanes full of people flying to Hawaii. If they have to check for tests to make it happen, they'll check for tests.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I agree with you except on one point. Governor Ige didn't say give a thumbs up to eliminating the 14 day quarantine on July 1 or August 1 or September 1 so the timeline for resorts and hotels to sell and book nights and tourists to reserve nights and book airline tickets can't start in earnest. In addition there is the concern over when things do open up what will happen so far as the spread. Will my family consider it safe enough to go.


They can have their plans in place, just waiting for when the Governor does give the thumbs up. Of course, I didn't say he DID give any thumbs up for any date. I just think, myself, that August is possible and by September likely. It is certainly not in the best interests of Hawaii to delay tourism solely for the sake of delay. I believe if they CAN be ready, they WILL be ready. Hawaii has one case reported today, none yesterday (for the 2nd time in the week). I believe the Big Island and Kauai have no known cases. It's not gone, but it may well be gone by the end of May. Now allow TWO more months for time to prep, get testing rules in place, get tracers trained, etc., and be prepared for the START of tourism (limited start) come August. It's just a hopeful prediction.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> They can have their plans in place, just waiting for when the Governor does give the thumbs up. Of course, I didn't say he DID give any thumbs up for any date. I just think, myself, that August is possible and by September likely. It is certainly not in the best interests of Hawaii to delay tourism solely for the sake of delay. I believe if they CAN be ready, they WILL be ready. Hawaii has one case reported today, none yesterday (for the 2nd time in the week). I believe the Big Island and Kauai have no known cases. It's not gone, but it may well be gone by the end of May. Now allow TWO more months for time to prep, get testing rules in place, get tracers trained, etc., and be prepared for the START of tourism (limited start) come August. It's just a hopeful prediction.



Since these Hotel/Timeshare operations are not mine I can't comment on the details and who needs to be involved with the planning.   I am most familiar with the Hilton Hawaiian Village as a guest so I will speak from my knowledge of their operation.   The plan needs to involve many people and services some of whom are in budgets, accounting, ordering, payroll, receiving, housekeeping, maintenance, grounds keeping, engineering, security, dining/food services, entertainment, pool maintenance, activities, concierge, information technology, front desk, resort managers, bellmen, doormen, valets, business office/post office, unions.   There may be others that I can't think of but to fill a sufficient number of rooms in the future perhaps tours need to start booking since they work months/seasons/years ahead.  

Also, at the Hilton Hawaiian Village Sales/Promotions is perhaps one of the most important elements of their operation and it funds the concierge services.

While some of these may be later in the planning process than others they all need to have a seat at the table to voice their thoughts and assure that everyone is involved in the plan to make the operation open up to standards.  While some discussion can be done between top management staff, if top management doesn't have reports, fine details of how things work, and what is needed in each area to move forward they can't function.  There are so many people needed to be involved to provide those details to top management that they would need to practically open with a skeleton crew on a trial basis without guests.  Are they going to pay for that to happen without some type of commited start date?  HGVC is a private corporation now, top management has to answer to a Board and ultimately to Stock Holders.  Prudent informed decisions need to be made not "wild ass guesses"


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Since these Hotel/Timeshare operations are not mine I can't comment on the details and who needs to be involved with the planning.   I am most familiar with the Hilton Hawaiian Village as a guest so I will speak from my knowledge of their operation.   The plan needs to involve many people and services some of whom are in budgets, accounting, ordering, payroll, receiving, housekeeping, maintenance, grounds keeping, engineering, security, dining/food services, entertainment, pool maintenance, activities, concierge, information technology, front desk, resort managers, bellmen, doormen, valets, business office/post office, unions.   There may be others that I can't think of but to fill a sufficient number of rooms in the future perhaps tours need to start booking since they work months/seasons/years ahead.
> 
> Also, at the Hilton Hawaiian Village Sales/Promotions is perhaps one of the most important elements of their operation and it funds the concierge services.
> 
> While some of these may be later in the planning process than others they all need to have a seat at the table to voice their thoughts and assure that everyone is involved in the plan to make the operation open up to standards.  While some discussion can be done between top management staff, if top management doesn't have reports, fine details of how things work, and what is needed in each area to move forward they can't function.  There are so many people needed to be involved to provide those details to top management that they would need to practically open with a skeleton crew on a trial basis without guests.  Are they going to pay for that to happen without some type of commited start date?  HGVC is a private corporation now, top management has to answer to a Board and ultimately to Stock Holders.  Prudent informed decisions need to be made not "wild ass guesses"


No doubt about it. But, every day that passes that they COULD be open and are not, it is costing them a lot of money. So it is their JOB to work with those that make the calls and to know when they need to be ready to open. It is their job to alert their department managers to have their opening plans and procedures ready when they get word that they'll be opening. Making excuses is not an effective strategy. 

My guess it that by the time HHV is ready to open, HGV will have opened a dozen, or dozens, of their timeshare facilities around the world. They aren't rookies. I don't know the number, but I have to believe they can be ready to go on 30 days notice, and I have no doubt the Governor of Hawaii will give them at least that much time, probably quite a bit more.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> No doubt about it. But, every day that passes that they COULD be open and are not, it is costing them a lot of money. So it is their JOB to work with those that make the calls and to know when they need to be ready to open. It is their job to alert their department managers to have their opening plans and procedures ready when they get word that they'll be opening. Making excuses is not an effective strategy.
> 
> My guess it that by the time HHV is ready to open, HGV will have opened a dozen, or dozens, of their timeshare facilities around the world. They aren't rookies. I don't know the number, but I have to believe they can be ready to go on 30 days notice, and I have no doubt the Governor of Hawaii will give them at least that much time, probably quite a bit more.



We know alot of the HHV management and personel from the Grand Vacation Club General Manager on down to many of the first line workers.  I know they are not rookies and I know they will do the best the can with the time available.  I am sure they have had some plans in place since they closed.  However, they need to start getting deliveries and some additional items that they haven't had to stock or stock in large quatities before.  In Hawaii deliveries are always a concern since all bulk items come by barge.  Starting up again after months of not operating is a challenge.  A challenge made more difficult by the Governor not yet giving a starting date for tourists to come without enduring a quarantine.  After this exercise going back and forth with you about this subject I am now of the belief that they should give themselves a start date of sometime in June or July 1.  As I mentioned previously they need to have a trial opening with a skeleton crew.  Perhaps they should open one timeshare building and one hotel building with the appropriate amount of trained staff.  If only locals book and those tourists that arrive who are willing to deal with the 24 day quarantine so be it.  They are at least open and can scale up from there.


----------



## slip

Tamaradarann said:


> We know alot of the HHV management and personel from the Grand Vacation Club General Manager on down to many of the first line workers.  I know they are not rookies and I know they will do the best the can with the time available.  I am sure they have had some plans in place since they closed.  However, they need to start getting deliveries and some additional items that they haven't had to stock or stock in large quatities before.  In Hawaii deliveries are always a concern since all bulk items come by barge.  Starting up again after months of not operating is a challenge.  A challenge made more difficult by the Governor not yet giving a starting date for tourists to come without enduring a quarantine.  After this exercise going back and forth with you about this subject I am now of the belief that they should give themselves a start date of sometime in June or July 1.  As I mentioned previously they need to have a trial opening with a skeleton crew.  Perhaps they should open one timeshare building and one hotel building with the appropriate amount of trained staff.  If only locals book and those tourists that arrive who are willing to deal with the 24 day quarantine so be it.  They are at least open and can scale up from there.



I think that will happen. If they open inter-island flights first that will give them a slow opening. I’m sure they have plans for re-opening in place.

I see the Governor allowed sunbathing and sitting on the beach starting this Saturday. I may take a walk down to Waikiki Beach on Saturday or Sunday to see how many people get out there. Masks and Social distancing is mandatory.


----------



## cman

slip said:


> I may take a walk down to Waikiki Beach on Saturday or Sunday to see how many people get out there.


If you do make it down there, please take a few pics and share with us. Stay safe.


----------



## slip

cman said:


> If you do make it down there, please take a few pics and share with us. Stay safe.



Will do.


----------



## DEROS

Just learn today that Mayor Caldwell (Honolulu) and Mayor Kawakami (Kauai) has extended the stay at home order until end of June.  This includes the 14 day visitor quarantine extending to end of June.  Governor Ige is thinking of following suit and making it a State wide directive.  The good news for locals is that more services will open up this weekend, so there will be more people exempted from the stay at home order.  I hope this doesn't stop the large firework shows, like the one on Magic Island.


----------



## Tamaradarann

slip said:


> I think that will happen. If they open inter-island flights first that will give them a slow opening. I’m sure they have plans for re-opening in place.
> 
> I see the Governor allowed sunbathing and sitting on the beach starting this Saturday. I may take a walk down to Waikiki Beach on Saturday or Sunday to see how many people get out there. Masks and Social distancing is mandatory.



I just looked at the HGVC website for the Hilton Hawaiian Village and owners have the ability to reserve nights at all the resorts starting June 18th.  There is lots of availability including Lagoon Tower which usually sells out first.  So perhaps they are starting the slow opening like I suggested June 18th.  It looks like they would be opening all the timeshare buildings which seems like alot of investment with the 14 day quarantine still in place.  Perhaps they know something we don't know.


----------



## gdrj

I have a couple issues, some are selfish, so doesnt mean they are realistic.

1- Tests- There is a lack of availability of tests in many areas.  Without A national testing system it will be difficult if not impossible to have a reliable testing process. Tests false negatives are still too high.  We can reduce risk but it cant be eliminated in a free society.

2- Come out with a timeline, even if its tentative. This would allow businesses the opportunity to plan and prepare.  If tentatively 8/1 is when hotels/timeshares are going to be allowed to open, allow them to have some staff prior with a detailed plan on how they will keep staff safe while they make adjustments to resorts etc.  Dont  tell them they can open 8/1 or 9/1 and give them a weeks notice.


----------



## rickandcindy23

I booked two one bedrooms at Marriott's Maui Ocean Club for late August-early September because they were just sitting online.  Put them on eplus retrade.  I hope the quarantine is lifted by then.  Rick and I would love a trip to Maui, and airfare on SW is super cheap and easily cancellable.  Here we come, Maui.  Woohoo!  Our daughter wants later July on Maui before school starts.  I am working on it for her.  There are some incredible opportunities just sitting online, and I think she would love MMO too.  Very good opportunities, and with eplus, I can always switch to Orlando, if I need to.  Ongoing searches in for late July.


----------



## controller1

rickandcindy23 said:


> I booked two one bedrooms at Marriott's Maui Ocean Club for late August-early September because they were just sitting online.  Put them on eplus retrade.  I hope the quarantine is lifted by then.  Rick and I would love a trip to Maui, and airfare on SW is super cheap and easily cancellable.  Here we come, Maui.  Woohoo!  Our daughter wants later July on Maui before school starts.  I am working on it for her.  There are some incredible opportunities just sitting online, and I think she would love MMO too.  Very good opportunities, and with eplus, I can always switch to Orlando, if I need to.  Ongoing searches in for late July.



We also have two weeks oceanfront at the Westin Ka'anapali Ocean Resort Villas North in late September/early October. Of course we won't go if the two weeks are to be spent in quarantine. Good flights and decent rental car price. I hope Maui is somewhat open then.


----------



## pedro47

Thanks.


----------



## csodjd

gdrj said:


> I have a couple issues, some are selfish, so doesnt mean they are realistic.
> 
> 1- Tests- There is a lack of availability of tests in many areas.  Without A national testing system it will be difficult if not impossible to have a reliable testing process. Tests false negatives are still too high.  We can reduce risk but it cant be eliminated in a free society.
> 
> 2- Come out with a timeline, even if its tentative. This would allow businesses the opportunity to plan and prepare.  If tentatively 8/1 is when hotels/timeshares are going to be allowed to open, allow them to have some staff prior with a detailed plan on how they will keep staff safe while they make adjustments to resorts etc.  Dont  tell them they can open 8/1 or 9/1 and give them a weeks notice.


Nothing selfish there. But forget a "national testing system." Trump has made clear that's not happening. So it's up to the states, but, in terms tourism and Hawaii, since there's only one way in, it's up to Hawaii in coordination with the airlines. But yes, false negatives need to be down to an ordinary level, < 5% for sure, hopefully well below that. LA County has been allowing anyone to get tested that wants one. They reported yesterday they are getting an 11% positive on their testing. One might guess that those choosing to get tested are bent toward those feeling more at risk of being infected, so if a random group were tested perhaps 5% or so would be positive, certainly less than 10%, possibly less than 5%. So if you have a 1% false negative rate, it would take many hundreds of people (1% of 5%) before there is one that slips by. That's reducing, but not eliminating, risk.


----------



## cybernaut

There is a strong attitude here in Kauai not to reopen for tourism until it is totally safe. Unfortunately, this fear has carried over to daily life for locals as well. We have had no new cases for over 30 days, no active cases and no deaths. Yet, we are still under lockdown. I don’t know where they think a new infection could come from.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


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## Ralph Sir Edward

Difficult decisions. Perhaps the most difficult problem is the air travel. I am in self-decided lockdown here at home. Say I could do the Hawaii 14 day lockdown, and then enjoy my vacation after. The real risk is that pesky air travel. 8 hours in a HEPA filtration mask? Ye gods!

And what about the person before you where you are staying in lockdown? Burn your weeks to get past the incubation period where you are staying?

I have 4 weeks. To do all the above would take more than that, inorder to have an actual vacation. And would there be anything open. . . .


----------



## Tamaradarann

gdrj said:


> I have a couple issues, some are selfish, so doesnt mean they are realistic.
> 
> 1- Tests- There is a lack of availability of tests in many areas.  Without A national testing system it will be difficult if not impossible to have a reliable testing process. Tests false negatives are still too high.  We can reduce risk but it cant be eliminated in a free society.
> 
> 2- Come out with a timeline, even if its tentative. This would allow businesses the opportunity to plan and prepare.  If tentatively 8/1 is when hotels/timeshares are going to be allowed to open, allow them to have some staff prior with a detailed plan on how they will keep staff safe while they make adjustments to resorts etc.  Dont  tell them they can open 8/1 or 9/1 and give them a weeks notice.



I don't believe that hotels/timeshares can't open.  There have been posts on TUG of members vacationing in timeshares in Hawaii.   However, the 14 quarantine is the issue.  With a 14 day quarantine few tourists come to Hawaii so it is not cost effective to open.  

I agree with you that the Governor of Hawaii should provide a timeline so that businesses can plan and prepare.  Since there isn't any clue from the Governor is why I mentioned a few posts ago that HGVC should have a trial opening at the Hilton Hawaiian Village of one timeshare building and on hotel building; the Hilton Hawaiian Village has 8 major buildings.  This morning I saw that the HGVC website indicates that all the 4 Timeshare Buildings are accepting reservations as of June 18 so perhaps that is their thinking.


----------



## JIMinNC

gdrj said:


> 1- Tests- There is a lack of availability of tests in many areas.  Without A national testing system it will be difficult if not impossible to have a reliable testing process. Tests false negatives are still too high.  We can reduce risk but it cant be eliminated in a free society.



Everyone talks about a "national" testing system, but the tests have to be administered locally and the closer the test lab or the testing machine is to the point of patient contact, the quicker the results can be received. So, I'm not sure that a national "system" is the panacea everyone seems to think it is. National solutions tend to be one size fits all and in a country as big as ours, that often has poor results. The bigger you get, the more difficult to manage and bureaucratic an organization becomes. That's why most local and state governments tend to be more nimble than the federal government. While I think the federal government could probably do things a lot better to accelerate the bulk production of the tests and the materials needed to create more capacity, ultimately, it seems to me that the testing has to be managed and administered at the lowest level possible to ensure quick, actionable results. The testing needs in a rural area might be very different than a big city with a huge public transit system. The testing needs for travel to Hawaii might be very different than the testing needs for travel to Florida or South Carolina. Additionally, if I were the CEO of a company and wanted to proactively test all of my workers on some regular basis, the last thing I would want to do is rely on the government to do it for me. I would want to control that myself so that I can get the results rapidly when I need them. Beyond making sure that we are pulling out all the stops to create the tests and materials needed, I'm having difficulty seeing a practical role for the federal government in managing a testing program.


----------



## slip

gdrj said:


> I have a couple issues, some are selfish, so doesnt mean they are realistic.
> 
> 1- Tests- There is a lack of availability of tests in many areas.  Without A national testing system it will be difficult if not impossible to have a reliable testing process. Tests false negatives are still too high.  We can reduce risk but it cant be eliminated in a free society.
> 
> 2- Come out with a timeline, even if its tentative. This would allow businesses the opportunity to plan and prepare.  If tentatively 8/1 is when hotels/timeshares are going to be allowed to open, allow them to have some staff prior with a detailed plan on how they will keep staff safe while they make adjustments to resorts etc.  Dont  tell them they can open 8/1 or 9/1 and give them a weeks notice.



The Governor is working with all the industries involved. They are just not announcing the information from the discussions until decisions are made.


----------



## csodjd

I listened to an interesting and informative Q&A with the Mayor of Maui County today. His take home points are as follows. Tourism must return, the island cannot survive without it. They made the mistake in the past of allowing quantity to overwhelm quality. They view this event as a way to change their trajectory, and focus on quality tourism -- people that come for longer times, stay and spend more money, etc. -- rather than quantity. He sees perhaps a 50% reduction in the number of available rental cars, reducing traffic considerably. He prefers timeshare owners because they tend to stay longer, come frequently, and care more as an owner, over hotel guests. So they are looking at how they can reopen with fewer people that stay and spend more. 

As for what it takes to reopen, that wasn't that complicated. He said they need to do their best to keep sick people from arriving, so testing at departure, and quick testing and isolation of anyone that gets sick to prevent any clusters from breaking out. They can handle the sick person here and there, they just don't want that person having the time to spread it to 15 others. So they are looking at reduced numbers of people in gatherings, at restaurants, etc.


----------



## bnoble

csodjd said:


> They made the mistake in the past of allowing quantity to overwhelm quality. They view this event as a way to change their trajectory, and focus on quality tourism -- people that come for longer times, stay and spend more money, etc. -- rather than quantity. He sees perhaps a 50% reduction in the number of available rental cars, reducing traffic considerably.


This echos a high-level tourism official (from Oahu?) maybe six weeks ago. It sounds likely that there will be a concerted effort.

I happen to like this idea, but I also recognize that this means my own trips will become more expensive. Cutting the rental car fleet in half doesn't just suddenly convince people not to come---the rise in prices of rental cars will contribute to that. There will be other examples--maybe a change in how TAT is applied, charged on a per-stay basis rather than a per-night basis, but also increasing it; perhaps increases in landing/departure fees at the airport. There will be others too.

Again, I think this is a great idea, but I am sure there will be plenty of grumbling when it comes time to implement it.


----------



## slip

cman said:


> If you do make it down there, please take a few pics and share with us. Stay safe.



Just got back from my walk to Waikiki beach. It only took me about 5 minutes to walk there since there is no traffic. I didn’t have to wait for the lights. This is a link to a short video I put on YouTube. I’ll add the pictures in another post.


----------



## cman

slip said:


> Just got back from my walk to Waikiki beach. It only took me about 5 minutes to walk there since there is no traffic. I didn’t have to wait for the lights. This is a link to a short video I put on YouTube. I’ll add the pictures in another post.


Thank you so much for posting that video.


----------



## slip

I walked down the beach a little and got another view. They are doing some work with some rocks further down the beach. These were taken at about 5:30pm.


----------



## slip

I took a couple on my way to and in the International Marketplace. It’s quicker for me to walk through that to get to the beach.


----------



## cman

slip said:


> I walked down the beach a little and got another view. They are doing some work with some rocks further down the beach. These were taken at about 5:30pm.
> 
> View attachment 20767View attachment 20768View attachment 20769View attachment 20770View attachment 20771View attachment 20772View attachment 20773View attachment 20774View attachment 20775View attachment 20776View attachment 20777View attachment 20778View attachment 20779View attachment 20780View attachment 20781View attachment 20782View attachment 20783View attachment 20784View attachment 20785


Neither the beach or streets are crowded. Are Hawaiians enjoying their time alone with their island? Just curious, what's the sentiment?  Oh, and thank you so much for the pictures. Please keep them coming.


----------



## slip

I had to do Duke better justice and lightened him up so you could see him.


----------



## slip

cman said:


> Neither the beach or streets are crowded. Are Hawaiians enjoying their time alone with their island? Just curious, what's the sentiment?  Oh, and thank you so much for the pictures. Please keep them coming.



I do know a few Native Hawaiians and many locals and it is a mix. Some would keep it this way and others want to get back to work and are worried about the economy. No scientific poll just what I get from the people I know and talk to.


----------



## DEROS

slip said:


> I do know a few Native Hawaiians and many locals and it is a mix. Some would keep it this way and others want to get back to work and are worried about the economy. No scientific poll just what I get from the people I know and talk to.



Living in Hawaii.....  We are enjoying the open beaches and open roads without tourist but also understand that it can't last.  It is like going on vacation.  Having a blast, but eventually it has to come to an end.  Unless you are in the economic group that can live the dream, eventually money will run out, forcing you back to work.  In Hawaii, tourism is still the number 1 industry.


----------



## Tamaradarann

slip said:


> Just got back from my walk to Waikiki beach. It only took me about 5 minutes to walk there since there is no traffic. I didn’t have to wait for the lights. This is a link to a short video I put on YouTube. I’ll add the pictures in another post.



Great pictures, thank you for posting them.  We miss being there.  When I am there I walk from the Hilton Hawaiian Village to the Duke Statue every morning sometimes all the way to Queens Beach.  Where were these pictures taken?  Just kidding, it doesn't look like Waikiki.  

I can see some people enjoying the area without tourists.  We have come to Waikiki for over 1000 nights in the last 12 years because we like the way it normally is and hope it can return to that soon.


----------



## DaveNV

These pictures of empty beaches and no crowds reminds me so much of what it was like when I was in high school there in the late 1960s.  I lived in Kailua, and would ride to work in downtown Honolulu with my Dad.  I'd head for the Waikiki area to hang out for the day, then meet Dad at the end of his workday and ride home.  It made for some awesome summer days.  I'd arrive at the beach around 8:00 or so, and it was like these images - few people up and about.  It was a magical time that has been gone a long time.

When I didn't go to town with my Dad, I'd often walk to Kailua Beach to hang out for the day - snorkeling, body surfing, seeing my friends.  There were many, many times I was the only person on the beach.

I can fully understand Slip's comment about Locals who would like the emptiness to stay. Not practical, of course, but very reminiscent of the old days.

Dave


----------



## Tamaradarann

DaveNW said:


> These pictures of empty beaches and no crowds reminds me so much of what it was like when I was in high school there in the late 1960s.  I lived in Kailua, and would ride to work in downtown Honolulu with my Dad.  I'd head for the Waikiki area to hang out for the day, then meet Dad at the end of his workday and ride home.  It made for some awesome summer days.  I'd arrive at the beach around 8:00 or so, and it was like these images - few people up and about.  It was a magical time that has been gone a long time.
> 
> When I didn't go to town with my Dad, I'd often walk to Kailua Beach to hang out for the day - snorkeling, body surfing, seeing my friends.  There were many, many times I was the only person on the beach.
> 
> I can fully understand Slip's comment about Locals who would like the emptiness to stay. Not practical, of course, but very reminiscent of the old days.
> 
> Dave



I was just thinking that what we really miss is not all the crowding as a result of tourists.  It could be alot less crowded and still very enjoyable for us.  What we miss is just walking down the beach or down Kalakaua without a mask and without worrying about social distancing.  We miss being able to go the the Honolulu Museum of Art to see the art, movies, shows, an opening dinners.  We miss the Blaisdell concerts.  We miss the live plays and musicals at the small theaters.  We miss the street festivals.  We miss riding the bus to and from events without worrying about wearing masks and sitting near people.  We miss riding elevators without masks and worrying about social distancing.

We hope it will return to the way it was.  Perhaps our hopes will never come to fruition.  That is a most depressing thought.


----------



## csodjd

DaveNW said:


> These pictures of empty beaches and no crowds reminds me so much of what it was like when I was in high school there in the late 1960s.  I lived in Kailua, and would ride to work in downtown Honolulu with my Dad.  I'd head for the Waikiki area to hang out for the day, then meet Dad at the end of his workday and ride home.  It made for some awesome summer days.  I'd arrive at the beach around 8:00 or so, and it was like these images - few people up and about.  It was a magical time that has been gone a long time.
> 
> When I didn't go to town with my Dad, I'd often walk to Kailua Beach to hang out for the day - snorkeling, body surfing, seeing my friends.  There were many, many times I was the only person on the beach.
> 
> I can fully understand Slip's comment about Locals who would like the emptiness to stay. Not practical, of course, but very reminiscent of the old days.
> 
> Dave


The impact is not unique to Hawaii. I live in Los Angeles. We're more or less traffic free. Reminds me of the '84 Olympics.


----------



## csodjd

DaveNW said:


> I can fully understand Slip's comment about Locals who would like the emptiness to stay. Not practical, of course, but very reminiscent of the old days.
> 
> Dave


Well, if the powers-that-be pull off what they are talking about, tourists will return, but in lower volume. A bit of the best of both worlds if they are able to thread that needle.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Well, if the powers-that-be pull off what they are talking about, tourists will return, but in lower volume. A bit of the best of both worlds if they are able to thread that needle.



OK, please explain what they are talking about that will open up to tourists light?


----------



## CalGalTraveler

csodjd said:


> I listened to an interesting and informative Q&A with the Mayor of Maui County today. His take home points are as follows. Tourism must return, the island cannot survive without it. They made the mistake in the past of allowing quantity to overwhelm quality. They view this event as a way to change their trajectory, and focus on quality tourism -- people that come for longer times, stay and spend more money, etc. -- rather than quantity. He sees perhaps a 50% reduction in the number of available rental cars, reducing traffic considerably. He prefers timeshare owners because they tend to stay longer, come frequently, and care more as an owner, over hotel guests. So they are looking at how they can reopen with fewer people that stay and spend more.



Wow. This comment by the Mayor of Maui county surprises me. In the past Maui County has been very anti-timeshare. There is a lawsuit between the Westin Kaanapali's and Maui County about the discrimination in taxation level for timeshares.  Westin prevailed but it is still not completely over. There has been local opposition to the new HGVC Maui which has delayed development in Kihei too.

Is this a single person's opinion? or have attitudes toward timeshares changed with Covid?

P.S. If true, I agree with the Mayor because the impacts are less than throngs of tourists visiting for 3 days on a multi-island package who drive all over the island generating traffic, buying cheap souvenirs, consuming plastic utensils, plates, crowding beaches, and dropping garbage everywhere that the county must pick up.

Budget travelers may not spend as much as everyone thinks either. A timeshare owner eating out every night at places like Dukes, or buying mai tais during sunset at the Westin, will support far more than the budget tourist hanging out all day at the beach (free) buying a burrito at takeout counters and eating on the beach or in their rental car.


----------



## DeniseM

> OK, please explain what they are talking about that will open up to tourists light?



There have been statements made that Hawaii would like to have half as  many tourists that spend twice as much money.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

DeniseM said:


> There have been statements made that Hawaii would like to have half as  many tourists that spend twice as much money.



I am sure many would like that, as it would mean less congestion and hopefully not killing the economy.   It may be challenging to achieve, but i wish them luck.


----------



## geoand

Just finished reading the entire thread. Nothing posted that convinced me to go to Hawaii in the near future. We have been to the Islands each year since 1995 from 2 week stays to 5 weeks. I am fine not going. I am surprised as to how cautious I have become. DW attributes this change in me from the fall I took in September. Fell from top of hill into an area covered with lava stones size of my head & larger. Ended up shearing my coller bone from left shoulder


----------



## amy241

geoand said:


> Just finished reading the entire thread. Nothing posted that convinced me to go to Hawaii in the near future. We have been to the Islands each year since 1995 from 2 week stays to 5 weeks. I am fine not going. I am surprised as to how cautious I have become. DW attributes this change in me from the fall I took in September. Fell from top of hill into an area covered with lava stones size of my head & larger. Ended up shearing my coller bone from left shoulder



It sounds like you are lucky to have survived the fall.


----------



## cman

DeniseM said:


> There have been statements made that Hawaii would like to have half as  many tourists that spend twice as much money.


Here's a link to the interview where the mayor made those comments. It's an interesting Q&A.








						Hawai‘i Tourism Now: Maui Mayor Michael Victorino Responds to Questions About Maui’s Tourism Industry | Maui Now
					

Maui Mayor Michael Victorino sits down with Pacific Media Group COO and MauiNow director, Jack Dugan to answer questions regarding tourism’s role in Maui’s economic future and its residents. The Mayor highlighted the integral role tourism plays on Maui’s hospitality-based economy. “Right now...




					mauinow.com


----------



## csodjd

CalGalTraveler said:


> P.S. If true, I agree with the Mayor because the impacts are less than throngs of tourists visiting for 3 days on a multi-island package who drive all over the island generating traffic, buying cheap souvenirs, consuming plastic utensils, plates, crowding beaches, and dropping garbage everywhere that the county must pick up.
> 
> Budget travelers may not spend as much as everyone thinks either. A timeshare owner eating out every night at places like Dukes, or buying mai tais during sunset at the Westin, will support far more than the budget tourist hanging out all day at the beach (free) buying a burrito at takeout counters and eating on the beach or in their rental car.


I think that's very true. TS owners are regulars. They know their way around, they stay for a week or more. They are affluent enough to have disposable money to spend on a timeshare purchase and annual MF. They hit the tourists spots, once or twice, but then they've been there and done that. I've noticed that TS owners also tend to patronize the "local" restaurants more because they get to know the area better. I view TS owners as becoming more like short-term residents than tourists.


----------



## TravelTime

slip said:


> Just got back from my walk to Waikiki beach. It only took me about 5 minutes to walk there since there is no traffic. I didn’t have to wait for the lights. This is a link to a short video I put on YouTube. I’ll add the pictures in another post.



It looks like a day in paradise! Thanks for posting.


----------



## TravelTime

With Tuggers reminiscing about how Hawaii and LA were like many years ago, it made me recall fondly how Miami was like in the 1970s and early 1980s before it became cool to visit. I remember when I was a child and my family would stay at the Art Deco hotels in South Beach during the summer. Back then, it was a cheap local family vacation. The hotels were not renovated. Only locals visited in the hot summer. In the mid 1980s, when we had the Mariel boat lift, Miami Beach became dangerous. Then no one would go to South Beach. Along the way, by the late 1980s, investors started discovering Miami and there were a few underground clubs in South Beach that I would visit with my boyfriend when I was in college. But we were always careful because the crime rate was high. In 1988, I left Miami to go to business school in NYC. I went back to Miami briefly to live from 1996 to 2000. Then left again for a better job. I was shocked that while I was away, Miami and Miami Beach had a complete transformation. By the mid to late 2000s, Miami was now a hip place with celebrities and an active LGBTQ scene. Real estate prices went through the roof. That was not the Miami I grew up in. But when people now ask where did I grow up, and I say Miami, they assume I had some wild and crazy life. LOL   I really miss the good old days in Miami when we had close to no tourism and it was an affordable place to live. I do not live in Miami now and I really do not like it now. It is too crowded and the lifestyle is too materialistic and shallow for my taste. Miami is a lot like LA. I lived in LA for a year and the values of today’s Miami are a lot like LA.


----------



## luv_maui

cman said:


> Here's a link to the interview where the mayor made those comments. It's an interesting Q&A.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawai‘i Tourism Now: Maui Mayor Michael Victorino Responds to Questions About Maui’s Tourism Industry | Maui Now
> 
> 
> Maui Mayor Michael Victorino sits down with Pacific Media Group COO and MauiNow director, Jack Dugan to answer questions regarding tourism’s role in Maui’s economic future and its residents. The Mayor highlighted the integral role tourism plays on Maui’s hospitality-based economy. “Right now...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mauinow.com


I’m not sure what the new norm will be nor what it means for quality vs quantity, but 6mo.-1yr to get some tourism back will be a tough long road for Maui.


----------



## DaveNV

geoand said:


> Ended up shearing my coller bone from left shoulder



If it had been a slightly different fall, they could have called you a "crack head."  (Sorry, couldn't resist. )

Dave


----------



## DaveNV

I don't think it's realistic for Hawaii to try and change how tourism there is accomplished.  There are millions of tourists from Japan and China who visit every year, and they tend to come in groups and stay in hotels.  Many of those same hotels are owned by Japanese and Chinese companies.  I don't see how they can swerve the visiting public away from that and into a timeshare-like vacation.  People want instant gratification, daily maid service, hula lessons on the lawn, and fireworks shows on Friday nights.

As to the number of tourists being cut down, again, I think it's a bit late to try and do that.  When I lived on Oahu back in the day, they were complaining that at any given time on any given day, even at the highest-occupancy times of the year, there were more than 3000 empty hotel rooms in Waikiki.  They were even putting up welfare families in empty hotel rooms because there wasn't enough low rent housing to go around.  There are many more hotel rooms now, in much larger hotels.  Is the occupancy rate still leaving many empty rooms?  Are they going to lock off half the rooms and tell those hotels they can't rent them out?  Are they going to reduce occupancy permits?  That'd be a fast lawsuit, I'm sure.

It's a ponderous question, since Hawaii serves so many different kinds of tourists.  I don't see how they can do it.  Raising prices and reducing the number of rental cars will only force more congestion on buses and taxis.    

Dave


----------



## slip

DaveNW said:


> I don't think it's realistic for Hawaii to try and change how tourism there is accomplished.  There are millions of tourists from Japan and China who visit every year, and they tend to come in groups and stay in hotels.  Many of those same hotels are owned by Japanese and Chinese companies.  I don't see how they can swerve the visiting public away from that and into a timeshare-like vacation.  People want instant gratification, daily maid service, hula lessons on the lawn, and fireworks shows on Friday nights.
> 
> As to the number of tourists being cut down, again, I think it's a bit late to try and do that.  When I lived on Oahu back in the day, they were complaining that at any given time on any given day, even at the highest-occupancy times of the year, there were more than 3000 empty hotel rooms in Waikiki.  They were even putting up welfare families in empty hotel rooms because there wasn't enough low rent housing to go around.  There are many more hotel rooms now, in much larger hotels.  Is the occupancy rate still leaving many empty rooms?  Are they going to lock off half the rooms and tell those hotels they can't rent them out?  Are they going to reduce occupancy permits?  That'd be a fast lawsuit, I'm sure.
> 
> It's a ponderous question, since Hawaii serves so many different kinds of tourists.  I don't see how they can do it.  Raising prices and reducing the number of rental cars will only force more congestion on buses and taxis.
> 
> Dave



I don’t see how it’s possible either.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> I don’t see how it’s possible either.


I do. I wouldn't underestimate the power of a determined government. The power to tax, to permit, to regulate. Occupancy limits. Lots of tools at their disposal. Consider London/Heathrow, for instance. They added a substantial tax to flights years ago specifically to reduce the number of people flying through the airport (for environmental reasons I believe). Hawaii has already shown a willingness and ability to impose short-stay taxes and fees. And, now, perhaps more than ever before, they can justify the need for tourist-paid taxes.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> I do. I wouldn't underestimate the power of a determined government. The power to tax, to permit, to regulate. Occupancy limits. Lots of tools at their disposal. Consider London/Heathrow, for instance. They added a substantial tax to flights years ago specifically to reduce the number of people flying through the airport (for environmental reasons I believe). Hawaii has already shown a willingness and ability to impose short-stay taxes and fees. And, now, perhaps more than ever before, they can justify the need for tourist-paid taxes.



I still don’t see it happening.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> You're right, it doesn't - the state legislature just voted on the funding on Friday, so I suspect that there are a lot of details to hammer out before they implement this plan. What interested me is that this is the method that they are going to use to screen incoming passengers.  Even though the article says that it could potentially be up and running in 2 months, my predictions is that it will take them at least 4 months, maybe 6.  YMMV
> 
> Also - the governor's comprehensive plan which was mentioned in the article is supposed to be released soon, and one would expect it to provide more details.


It's encouraging that they are starting to talk about tourism. It may be a while off, at least it's starting to be a topic. I suspect they will have to engage and partner with the airlines. They have a common goal, and I'm sure the airlines would be happy to work with the state in testing protocols to get people flying again. I hope the plan, when it arrives, will have target dates, even if they are not guaranteed. I'm not a fan of thermal screening though. That's going to miss too many. Heck, just take 2-3 Tylenol an hour before landing. I'd be happy to pay a $200 "surcharge" for a test either before arriving at the airport or when I get there, just to know that everyone on the plane was also tested, and almost everyone arriving in Hawaii is virus free. And I'd be happy to pay a 5% hotel tax to fund governmental and healthcare operations. If I can't afford an extra $50 on every $1000 I spend, then I can't afford to vacation in Hawaii.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Well, if the powers-that-be pull off what they are talking about, tourists will return, but in lower volume. A bit of the best of both worlds if they are able to thread that needle.



Without question even if the 14 quarantine ended June 1, initally tourist are going to return in lower volume than before the virus crisis.  People all over the world have been effected negatively by this virus either by becoming ill and dying, becoming ill a being disabled for a number of weeks, being unemployed or underemployed and losing wealth or being in debt, having to spend money on things that they ordinarily would not have spent money on to deal with the virus, having a great deal of anxiety about becoming ill or having family members becoming ill.
Many people are not going to be traveling for a while due to the virus.  The powers that be in Hawaii do not need to work hard to thread that needle they can drive a car through it.  As far as long term that is something that we must wait and see.  I have no opinions on that at all.


----------



## pedro47

Opinions , we have booked the last week in June and the first week in July. Should we cancel our Hawaiian vacation plans?


----------



## bnoble

I would. The quarantine order extends through June.


----------



## pedro47

bnoble said:


> I would. The quarantine order extends through June.


Thanks you.


----------



## oneohana

DeniseM said:


> There have been statements made that Hawaii would like to have half as  many tourists that spend twice as much money.


I guess that rules out ts owners.
My friend's parents owned the jewelry store at the Marriott in Kaanapali, they said that hotel guests spent way more money. Once they converted to timeshares, most of their business was from changing the resort worker's watch batteries. They let them stay because at least it was a store that was open and not another empty space.


----------



## slip

pedro47 said:


> Opinions , we have booked the last week in June and the first week in July. Should we cancel our Hawaiian vacation plans?



Yes, at this point you can go ahead and cancel. I just don’t see mainland visitors by then. I was hoping for inter-island to open up during that same period but I still don’t know if that will happen.


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## pedro47

Everything have been cancel .


----------



## Steve Fatula

DaveNW said:


> I don't think it's realistic for Hawaii to try and change how tourism there is accomplished.  There are millions of tourists from Japan and China who visit every year, and they tend to come in groups and stay in hotels.  Many of those same hotels are owned by Japanese and Chinese companies.  I don't see how they can swerve the visiting public away from that and into a timeshare-like vacation.  People want instant gratification, daily maid service, hula lessons on the lawn, and fireworks shows on Friday nights.
> 
> As to the number of tourists being cut down, again, I think it's a bit late to try and do that.  When I lived on Oahu back in the day, they were complaining that at any given time on any given day, even at the highest-occupancy times of the year, there were more than 3000 empty hotel rooms in Waikiki.  They were even putting up welfare families in empty hotel rooms because there wasn't enough low rent housing to go around.  There are many more hotel rooms now, in much larger hotels.  Is the occupancy rate still leaving many empty rooms?  Are they going to lock off half the rooms and tell those hotels they can't rent them out?  Are they going to reduce occupancy permits?  That'd be a fast lawsuit, I'm sure.
> 
> It's a ponderous question, since Hawaii serves so many different kinds of tourists.  I don't see how they can do it.  Raising prices and reducing the number of rental cars will only force more congestion on buses and taxis.
> 
> Dave



How 'bout 150% hotel tax, that does not apply to timeshares? Or whatever other tax one could apply to hotels only? There's got to be ways to only tax certain businesses or otherwise levy fees, perhaps an annual permit that's super expensive, monthly inspections, name it. Maybe there will be lawsuits, that doesn't mean it can't or even shouldn't be done. 

Half the customers with same revenue sounds like a very worthy goal to me if you are trying to not only protect your state from viruses and health issues, but also overuse, etc.


----------



## Tucsonadventurer

In the interview he said it could be 6 months to a year before they open. He doesn't want to reopen and then have to close again. We booked for the month of Jan but will everything can be canceled if need be


----------



## CalGalTraveler

I could envision Maui and Kauai enacting some restrictions. I don't see how it could work for Honolulu economy. Big business for Asian and Australian tourists flying into Honolulu to shop the outlet stores. Also destination weddings.


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## csodjd

Steve Fatula said:


> How 'bout 150% hotel tax, that does not apply to timeshares? Or whatever other tax one could apply to hotels only? There's got to be ways to only tax certain businesses or otherwise levy fees, perhaps an annual permit that's super expensive, monthly inspections, name it. Maybe there will be lawsuits, that doesn't mean it can't or even shouldn't be done.
> 
> Half the customers with same revenue sounds like a very worthy goal to me if you are trying to not only protect your state from viruses and health issues, but also overuse, etc.


An easy start is a tax that applies to any stay of 5 (or whatever) nights or less. Another would be a tax on visitors from a foreign country. The idea is make it more expensive to come, which will result in fewer visitors. In San Francisco restaurants have a "benefits" tax that they add to the bills to pay for healthcare benefits for their employees. Hawaii could impose a "benefits" tax that generates revenue that they can then use for the benefit of residents.


----------



## csodjd

Tucsonadventurer said:


> In the interview he said it could be 6 months to a year before they open. He doesn't want to reopen and then have to close again. We booked for the month of Jan but will everything can be canceled if need be


That may be wishful thinking. I cannot imagine that you can put all those hotels in mothballs for a year and expect there to be employees ready to go when they decide to open. They'll have long earlier been forced into different jobsor moved back to the mainland or wherever. That's not even considering whether an airline like Hawaiian would even exist in a year, or most of the restaurants that cater to tourists.


----------



## controller1

Governor Ige has extended the 14-day quarantine to June 30 along with other restrictions already in place.  https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-cont...lamation-for-COVID-19-distribution-signed.pdf


----------



## gdrj

For arguments sake lets say they they remove 14 day quarantine end of June.  July 1 no quarantine.  Would the people who showed up on June 29th, be Released from quarantine as of July 1?

I dont think I’ve seen anything about hotels/timeshares timetable yet, or what parameters will be required.


----------



## DeniseM

It's very unlikely to be July 1. On Friday, the state legislature approved funding to install fever montoring equipment at the Hawaii airports, and the earliest it could potentially be ready is in 2 months.  I don't think they will eliminate the 14 day quarantine until that monitoring process is up and running reliably.


----------



## Tamaradarann

gdrj said:


> For arguments sake lets say they they remove 14 day quarantine end of June.  July 1 no quarantine.  Would the people who showed up on June 29th, be Released from quarantine as of July 1?
> 
> I dont think I’ve seen anything about hotels/timeshares timetable yet, or what parameters will be required.



I don't think there has been any decree about hotels/timeshares at all.  Since the beginning I believe that hotels/timeshares have been considered a shelter for either the shelter in place directive or the 14 day quarantine requirement.  Remaining in Hotel rooms and timeshare apartments are not a desease spreading threat.  Leaving them is.


----------



## Tamaradarann

DeniseM said:


> It's very unlikely to be July 1. On Friday, the state legislature approved funding to install fever montoring equipment at the Hawaii airports, and the earliest it could potentially be ready is in 2 months.  I don't think they will eliminate the 14 day quarantine until that monitoring process is up and running reliably.



I totally agree with you that the will NOT lift the 14 day quarantine as a July 1 and they are waiting for some type of relyable monitoring for incoming people to the island to be put in place.  However, I am wondering why Governor Ige hasn't even set a date for moving to Stage 3 of the opening up of businesses to the local people.  Perhaps that will be July 1.


----------



## jtp1947

gdrj said:


> For arguments sake lets say they they remove 14 day quarantine end of June.  July 1 no quarantine.  Would the people who showed up on June 29th, be Released from quarantine as of July 1?
> 
> This from frank808:
> Yes if you arrive on June 30 you have 14 day quarantine and persons arriving July 1 or later would be quarantine free. That is how the state treated the quarantine when first issued in March. This arriving the day before were fine and those arriving 12 hours later would be subject to 14 day quarantine.


----------



## DeniseM

> However, I am wondering why Governor Ige hasn't even set a date for moving to Stage 3 of the opening up of businesses to the local people. Perhaps that will be July 1.



The article says that between each stage of the plan, there will be a 14 day evaluation period to make sure that there is not an increase in Coronavirus infections.  If there is an increase, then more restrictive steps may have to be put back into place.  Because of that, I don't think they can say exactly when the next stage will begin.  My guest is that the State Gov. doesn't want to be locked into a date, because some people would insist on moving forward on that date, even if Coronavirus situation doesn't support it.


----------



## beachlynn

csodjd said:


> I listened to an interesting and informative Q&A with the Mayor of Maui County today. His take home points are as follows. Tourism must return, the island cannot survive without it. They made the mistake in the past of allowing quantity to overwhelm quality. They view this event as a way to change their trajectory, and focus on quality tourism -- people that come for longer times, stay and spend more money, etc. -- rather than quantity. He sees perhaps a 50% reduction in the number of available rental cars, reducing traffic considerably. He prefers timeshare owners because they tend to stay longer, come frequently, and care more as an owner, over hotel guests. So they are looking at how they can reopen with fewer people that stay and spend more.
> 
> As for what it takes to reopen, that wasn't that complicated. He said they need to do their best to keep sick people from arriving, so testing at departure, and quick testing and isolation of anyone that gets sick to prevent any clusters from breaking out. They can handle the sick person here and there, they just don't want that person having the time to spread it to 15 others. So they are looking at reduced numbers of people in gatherings, at restaurants, etc.


How exactly does he plan to put "quality over quantity" into action? It seems difficult and subjective. How does he decide if someone is quality?


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> The article says that between each stage of the plan, there will be a 14 day evaluation period to make sure that there is not an increase in Coronavirus infections.  If there is an increase, then more restrictive steps may have to be put back into place.  Because of that, I don't think they can say exactly when the next stage will begin.  My guest is that the State Gov. doesn't want to be locked into a date, because some people would insist on moving forward on that date, even if Coronavirus situation doesn't support it.


It is indeed an odd policy currently where they have virtually zero infections. No new ones statewide yesterday. The only two in recent days were residents arriving from the mainland, and, of course, they had to be quarantined. So what are they "evaluating" for 14 days I wonder? At this point they have the best infection situation and control in the US. June will just be more of May... any new cases will have arrived from a flight in, and since all arriving have to be quarantined, spread is almost impossible (except within the home of the arriving person).


----------



## csodjd

beachlynn said:


> How exactly does he plan to put "quality over quantity" into action? It seems difficult and subjective. How does he decide if someone is quality?


By "quality" I think they just mean will or does spend more. I suspect they have great data on spending with profiles of who spends, where they come from, how long they stay, where they stay, etc. I'm sure they know the "buyers" (tourists) of their "products" (tourism) well. Using that kind of data they can adjust marketing, taxes, etc., to encourage what they want and discourage what they don't.


----------



## csodjd

I hope he's not setting aside the concept of learning to live with and contain COVID as an unaccepable option and providing policy only with the goal of not having it at all. Most every state, and more and more countries (see, e.g., Italy) are accepting that going forward the infection will exist and they are learning to live with it, making policy and taking reasonable steps to prevent it from getting out of control. Hawaii, because of their strong actions, is probably better positioned to do that today than any other state.


----------



## Cornell

So.....This is a picture of my niece in Waikiki.  She is a professional dancer and also a full time student at Columbia in NYC.  She teaches Pilates to all the upper east side ladies to support herself while going through school.  Once her college classes moved online and NYC became a tough place to live, she networked and found someone who rented her a cheap apartment in Hawaii.  

She has moved there for the time being (and yes, she quarantined for 14 days upon her arrival) and is finishing up her Columbia coursework while teaching online Pilates classes.  She's living her best life.  She's a vegan and has been going on and on about how wonderful the farmers markets are in Hawaii.


----------



## capjak

Makes me wonder how the economy is surviving there?

Flu related deaths in Hawaii: 174 Pediatric deaths associated with Flu and 400 adults 

Total 17 deaths thus far from Covid-19




			https://health.hawaii.gov/docd/files/2018/03/FLU_Influenza_Surveillance.pdf


----------



## beachlynn

csodjd said:


> By "quality" I think they just mean will or does spend more. I suspect they have great data on spending with profiles of who spends, where they come from, how long they stay, where they stay, etc. I'm sure they know the "buyers" (tourists) of their "products" (tourism) well. Using that kind of data they can adjust marketing, taxes, etc., to encourage what they want and discourage what they don't.


I know what the Mayor means by 'quality" but there doesn't seem to be any practical way to quantify and regulate that. I mean does he think people are going to show their W2 and bring their receipts from their previous stay before they can book a vacation? And for people implying that tourists who save up their money for their special trip to Hawai'i are all bumpkins who trash the island are ignorant. [redacted] People who litter come in all shapes, sizes and bank accounts.  Don't even get me going on the people in their fancy sports cars flicking cigarette butts.
I have been to Maui as young 22 yr old bride in the early 80's for a week long honeymoon because that is what was gifted to us. It was a darling condo in Maui, the Kula Kane which is still there.  We were clean, we spent the money we had saved up and loved it.  We have rented a luxury home and are still the same people we were in the 80's. Please don't paint people with a broad brush.  It isn't fair.


----------



## bnoble

beachlynn said:


> How exactly does he plan to put "quality over quantity" into action?


By enacting policy mechanisms that attempt to encourage the type of visitor they want, and discourage the type of visitor they don't. For example, if they wanted to encourage longer stays, they could change the form of TAT (or add a new lodging tax) that charged a non-trival amount on a _per-stay_ basis, not a _per-night_ basis.


----------



## bnoble

csodjd said:


> Most every state, and more and more countries (see, e.g., Italy) are accepting that going forward the infection will exist and they are learning to live with it,


Partly that's because those states/countries couldn't easily seal off their land borders to others and/or it's just too late. Hawaii doesn't have either of those problems. It might not be the choice I'd hope for as potential visitors, but I can't say that it's irrational.


----------



## csodjd

bnoble said:


> Partly that's because those states/countries couldn't easily seal off their land borders to others and/or it's just too late. Hawaii doesn't have either of those problems. It might not be the choice I'd hope for as potential visitors, but I can't say that it's irrational.


I'd say definitely not irrational in March/April. 

But, today is not March 1. Today we know much about transmission. We know symptoms. We have testing. We are aware of asymptomatic spread. We are wearing face coverings. We are socially distancing. And, Hawaii is almost, if not entirely, free of infection. Notably, even before ANY of those things, with unrestricted tourism, Hawaii handled it perhaps better than any other state in terms of deaths, cases, etc. They never ran out of beds or ventilators. They had the lowest per capita death rate in the United States and only Montana has fewer cases per capita. Hawaii defended against the virus DESPITE tens of thousands of tourists from across the world coming in during Jan, Feb, and March -- with NO mitigation measures in place, and a LOT of undiagnosed disease out there. So, basically, Hawaii won.

My point is, what was very rationale then may not be rational in July or August. At some point it is no longer rational. Fear is not a good policy driver. Perhaps if there were not a significant downside it might be. But at some point the economic injury to the PEOPLE that live and work there becomes irreparable.

To play a mind game, let's assume there are no more new cases in Hawaii during the remainder of May. And let's assume that continues into mid-June, almost 30 days from now. No cases. Under that hypothetical, would it THEN be irrational to say Hawaii needs to continue to have essentially sealed borders (the impact of 14-day quarantine) to tourists? 

On the flip side, Hawaii could mandate hotels/timeshares could open to 30% capacity and require all visitors to certify that the got tested within 2 days of departure, and require that proof of a negative test be shown upon arrival. They can impose restrictions on dine-in locations and at other "high risk" locations. No big gatherings. They may get some active cases -- but 10 or 15 are manageable. The alternative is to wait until vaccination and require proof of vaccination before they open up. That's an economic disaster.


----------



## amy241

csodjd said:


> I'd say definitely not irrational in March/April.
> 
> But, today is not March 1. Today we know much about transmission. We know symptoms. We have testing. We are aware of asymptomatic spread. We are wearing face coverings. We are socially distancing. And, Hawaii is almost, if not entirely, free of infection. Notably, even before ANY of those things, with unrestricted tourism, Hawaii handled it perhaps better than any other state in terms of deaths, cases, etc. They never ran out of beds or ventilators. They had the lowest per capita death rate in the United States and only Montana has fewer cases per capita. Hawaii defended against the virus DESPITE tens of thousands of tourists from across the world coming in during Jan, Feb, and March -- with NO mitigation measures in place, and a LOT of undiagnosed disease out there. So, basically, Hawaii won.
> 
> My point is, what was very rationale then may not be rational in July or August. At some point it is no longer rational. Fear is not a good policy driver. Perhaps if there were not a significant downside it might be. But at some point the economic injury to the PEOPLE that live and work there becomes irreparable.
> 
> To play a mind game, let's assume there are no more new cases in Hawaii during the remainder of May. And let's assume that continues into mid-June, almost 30 days from now. No cases. Under that hypothetical, would it THEN be irrational to say Hawaii needs to continue to have essentially sealed borders (the impact of 14-day quarantine) to tourists?
> 
> On the flip side, Hawaii could mandate hotels/timeshares could open to 30% capacity and require all visitors to certify that the got tested within 2 days of departure, and require that proof of a negative test be shown upon arrival. They can impose restrictions on dine-in locations and at other "high risk" locations. No big gatherings. They may get some active cases -- but 10 or 15 are manageable. The alternative is to wait until vaccination and require proof of vaccination before they open up. That's an economic disaster.



Many timeshare owners are legacy weeks owners (as I am) who have a vested property right in their week (as opposed to a Right to Use in a points program). If a resort opens up and allows only 30% occupancy, what happens to those owners with an actual property interest who do not get to use their property due to the occupancy cap and have now been deprived of that property without due process of law? I see some issues here as a lawyer.


----------



## DeniseM

*Multiple posts have been moved to this thread from the Hawaii Travel News Updates thread.

Clarification:  My goal is to keep that thread uncluttered so that the latest travel news doesn't get buried in discussions.


----------



## csodjd

amy241 said:


> Many timeshare owners are legacy weeks owners (as I am) who have a vested property right in their week (as opposed to a Right to Use in a points program). If a resort opens up and allows only 30% occupancy, what happens to those owners with an actual property interest who do not get to use their property due to the occupancy cap and have now been deprived of that property without due process of law? I see some issues here as a lawyer.


Well the easy answer is, the government would say, it's up to the TS entity to deal with that. They aren't infringing on anyone's rights. They are issuing a public health order. Moreover, unless you have a fixed week, your vested property right is not a right to any given week, just to a week in a year. I suspect the TS entities could "do the math" and meet the demand and ensure you get your week, though it may not be the week you want. But that's just like today. I'd love to pick my week at the MOC, but I have to try and grab it at 6:00am 12 months to the day or its gone. So I don't see any "taking" issues. No more so than red flagging a dangerous building.


----------



## Luanne

amy241 said:


> Many timeshare owners are legacy weeks owners (as I am) who have a vested property right in their week (as opposed to a Right to Use in a points program). If a resort opens up and allows only 30% occupancy, what happens to those owners with an actual property interest who do not get to use their property due to the occupancy cap and have now been deprived of that property without due process of law? I see some issues here as a lawyer.


The resort I own on Maui has fixed weeks.  They shut down for the entire month of May.  They suggested that owners bank their weeks with one of the exchange companies.  I'm sure the trade company they work with the most, Trading Places Maui, is scrambling to find other weeks for owners.


----------



## csodjd

beachlynn said:


> there doesn't seem to be any practical way to quantify and regulate that.


Sure there is. It doesn't mean only a person with X net worth can come. All the need to do is move the needle. If today, say (pure hypothetical) their data shows that  25% of tourists spend on average $500/day or more, they can make a huge change by turning that into 40% that spend on average $500/day. You make it more expensive to stay in Hawaii and the needle will move. It may require a lot of art (and luck) to find the sweet spot. But it's very doable if that's what they want to do. Consider this: like London/Heathrow has done, imagine if they add a substantial tax (say 25%) on all flights arriving or departing. That alone would move the needle by making the trip too expensive for many (imagine the ordinary family of 4 or 5).


----------



## luv_maui

Just got an email from Lahaina Grill cancelling my dinner reservations for 7/30/2020.  Now I really wonder if the quarantine will be lifted by 7/24/2020.  We usually have dinner our last night at Lahaina Grill.  Now I’m wondering if I should cancel my II exchange outside 60 days, so I can find a replacement as opposed to being limited within only 60 days.


----------



## csodjd

luv_maui said:


> Just got an email from Lahaina Grill cancelling my dinner reservations for 7/30/2020.  Now I really wonder if the quarantine will be lifted by 7/24/2020.  We usually have dinner our last night at Lahaina Grill.  Now I’m wondering if I should cancel my II exchange outside 60 days, so I can find a replacement as opposed to being limited within only 60 days.


I think it's really hard to EXPECT to be able to go there before August. There's a maybe out there, but also a probably not. I've got November reservations, for a wedding, and I'm still in the optimistically hoping stage, but not yet confident enough to say I'm expecting to be able to go. 

However, in contrast, I will be going to Pinehurt, North Carolina, in early August for 11 days to play two golf tournaments. My only concern is on the food side. To ensure the safest possible flights I booked first class, window, first row. That ought to be about the minimum exposure to anyone (especially if the other seat is empty as it currently is). But I do expect that infection rate will be WAY down by August. IHMI projects about 75 active infections statewide by then. 

There is a point where reason has to trump fear. By August I think I'm probably more likely to have a serious or fatal car accident driving to the airport than I am to end up with a serious or fatal COVID infection.


----------



## slip

luv_maui said:


> Just got an email from Lahaina Grill cancelling my dinner reservations for 7/30/2020.  Now I really wonder if the quarantine will be lifted by 7/24/2020.  We usually have dinner our last night at Lahaina Grill.  Now I’m wondering if I should cancel my II exchange outside 60 days, so I can find a replacement as opposed to being limited within only 60 days.



FWIW, I think you may as well cancel. I don’t see it happening in July.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> Sure there is. It doesn't mean only a person with X net worth can come. All the need to do is move the needle. If today, say (pure hypothetical) their data shows that  25% of tourists spend on average $500/day or more, they can make a huge change by turning that into 40% that spend on average $500/day. You make it more expensive to stay in Hawaii and the needle will move. It may require a lot of art (and luck) to find the sweet spot. But it's very doable if that's what they want to do. Consider this: like London/Heathrow has done, imagine if they add a substantial tax (say 25%) on all flights arriving or departing. That alone would move the needle by making the trip too expensive for many (imagine the ordinary family of 4 or 5).



These things you are bringing up would only limit the numbers. They mentioned low numbers that spend more. They will not be able to pick those people who spend more.


Plus finding that sweet spot you talk about could take a lot of time. Something many of these businesses won’t have. Even more so the longer the restrictions are in place.

I don’t see that working at all. We’ll just have to wait and see if they try to change anything.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> These things you are bringing up would only limit the numbers. They mentioned low numbers that spend more. They will not be able to pick those people who spend more.
> 
> 
> Plus finding that sweet spot you talk about could take a lot of time. Something many of these businesses won’t have. Even more so the longer the restrictions are in place.
> 
> I don’t see that working at all. We’ll just have to wait and see if they try to change anything.


I too think time is important. No clear evidence that the Governor agrees with us. Hopefully he knows much better than us what they can and cannot handle. 

But I disagree that what I suggested would ONLY limit the numbers. When it is more costly, you get people that can better afford it. You don't see a lot of people on a tight budget eating and staying at the Four Seasons. Or at the Lodge at Pebble Beach. I'd think of it this way. Imagine the passengers on two cruises. One is a regular cruise. The other, same ship, same itinerary, but with the bottom three room classes closed and empty. I believe in the latter you'd have fewer people and the average net worth of the passengers would be higher. Similarly, if it costs more to go to Hawaii, it just removes those for whom that is just too expensive.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> To ensure the safest possible flights I booked first class, window, first row. That ought to be about the minimum exposure to anyone (especially if the other seat is empty as it currently is).


If there is a curtain or partition between FC and Coach, I would think the last row of FC seems to me to be the lowest potential exposure.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> I too think time is important. No clear evidence that the Governor agrees with us. Hopefully he knows much better than us what they can and cannot handle.
> 
> But I disagree that what I suggested would ONLY limit the numbers. When it is more costly, you get people that can better afford it. You don't see a lot of people on a tight budget eating and staying at the Four Seasons. Or at the Lodge at Pebble Beach. I'd think of it this way. Imagine the passengers on two cruises. One is a regular cruise. The other, same ship, same itinerary, but with the bottom three room classes closed and empty. I believe in the latter you'd have fewer people and the average net worth of the passengers would be higher. Similarly, if it costs more to go to Hawaii, it just removes those for whom that is just too expensive.



Curious...and what do you say to the mid-tier and lower hotels and resorts that won’t be able to attract anyone in this scenario? How does this help their businesses?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> Curious...and what do you say to the mid-tier and lower hotels and resorts that won’t be able to attract anyone in this scenario? How does this help their businesses?
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Well, I think that problem/issue is broader than just those hotels. It extends to all the businesses that cater to the budget traveler and not the "Four Seasons" traveler. But all I can say is, this is what Hawaii (especially Maui it seems) is choosing for its direction going forward. You and I are not making that choice. If I had my choice I'd have half as many tourists at half the price (then I'd stay twice as long).  

All I'm saying is that if that's the direction they want to go -- and everything that's coming out of the public statements about restarting tourism seems to indicate that IS the direction they want to go -- they can probably pull it off. Others don't think they can. And maybe they can't in the long run. But it seems they're going to try. And given the impact of COVID on the state and county budgets, adding taxes directed at tourists seems like a really easy place for them to start their budget recovery AND move in the direction they want to go.


----------



## slip

Ken555 said:


> Curious...and what do you say to the mid-tier and lower hotels and resorts that won’t be able to attract anyone in this scenario? How does this help their businesses?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



That’s what I was thinking and what about all the ones that would be empty now.

Also know a lot of people who have money and many of them are frugal anddon’t spend money.

csodjd
I’m just not buying that it’s a viable option. We’ll agree to disagree.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> Well, I think that problem/issue is broader than just those hotels. It extends to all the businesses that cater to the budget traveler and not the "Four Seasons" traveler. But all I can say is, this is what Hawaii (especially Maui it seems) is choosing for its direction going forward. You and I are not making that choice. If I had my choice I'd have half as many tourists at half the price (then I'd stay twice as long).
> 
> All I'm saying is that if that's the direction they want to go -- and everything that's coming out of the public statements about restarting tourism seems to indicate that IS the direction they want to go -- they can probably pull it off. Others don't think they can. And maybe they can't in the long run. But it seems they're going to try. And given the impact of COVID on the state and county budgets, adding taxes directed at tourists seems like a really easy place for them to start their budget recovery AND move in the direction they want to go.



Well, I haven’t read nor watched everything out of Hawaii recently, but I didn’t see anything specific about how they intend to make this happen. You and others here seem to be assuming they will do it via a tax or something similar. Sure, that’s possible. I just doubt it.

I just don’t see it happening fairly without accommodating all businesses, and as you mention that’s more than just the mid-tier and lower hotels.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ken555

Also, if Hawaii did impose a significant tax or surcharge on visitors I can see bad press for years. It’s exactly the wrong message to send during a crisis. This is a time to be inclusive, not exclusive. Perhaps a lottery system or something similar... and if they are going to force businesses to operate for a long time at about half capacity (?) then those businesses would, I assume, need to receive additional support from other sources.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## linsj

slip said:


> That’s what I was thinking and what about all the ones that would be empty now.
> 
> Also know a lot of people who have money and many of them are frugal anddon’t spend money.
> 
> csodjd
> I’m just not buying that it’s a viable option. We’ll agree to disagree.



And some of us don't have much money but have learned to play the points and miles and gift card game well. I can do 5-star travel on a 2-star budget, especially in Hawaii. In fact, I can spend two weeks on Oahu for less money than I'd spend at home.


----------



## csodjd

linsj said:


> And some of us don't have much money but have learned to play the points and miles and gift card game well. I can do 5-star travel on a 2-star budget, especially in Hawaii. In fact, I can spend two weeks on Oahu for less money than I'd spend at home.


As I commented earlier, they don't have to eliminate the budget traveler, they just have to move the needle such that they increase the spender and decrease the budget traveler. For some reason people here think that this is an all-or-nothing proposition. That the idea they are floating requires only big spenders come to Hawaii. That's silly and reflects a weak understanding of macro economics. All they have to do is shift the percentages. Maybe today 10% of tourists spend more than $1000/day when they are in Hawaii and 20% spend less than $200/day (just a hypothetical, I have no idea the numbers). Change that to 20%. and 10% and you have altered the economic landscape, increased government revenue, increased revenue to businesses, etc. You've accomplished a huge change. 

But, whatever. I'm only responding to what politicians in Hawaii have said publicly several times they intend to pursue in their reopening. Some think they can succeed, others don't. I really don't care one way or the other. I'm much more interested in WHEN they open than whether they are going to try and change the demographics of their tourism industry.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward

Can the Hawaiian Government force an "up-market" change to tourism? The answer is yes.
Will it best serve the interests of existing Hawaiian residents? That is unknown.

How to do it? State level taxes. (It is a truism that tourist are easy to tax. They can't vote.) What sort of taxes?
Per head arrival taxes for airlines.
Much higher hotel taxes.
Much higher rental taxes on cars. (With lower taxes on people who can prove residency.)

Do I like any of these possibilities? No, but that doesn't make them impossible, or even unlikely.
Use the money to encourage other non-tourism industries. 

Note: This will drive low end tourist businesses into insolvency. But, I suspect, that is already happening. How excess buildings will be repurposed is unknown at this stage.

Will this end the Hawaiian economy? Short term yes, long term is unknown.

High end tourism will not be discouraged, most likely it will be encouraged. Being able to afford to go to Hawaii will once again become a status symbol.
An example is Switzerland. A very rich small country with both a long standing tourist industry, and a thriving ex-pat scene. But, believe me, it isn't cheap to go there, or to live there as an ex-pat.
Hawaii might try to model themselves after Switzerland, with tropical beaches instead of mountains.

Would it work. Who knows?


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward

An add-on that probably would not be thought of in the government taxing process.

Make the taxes "spendable" on local consumable purchases. 

Look at it this way. I go to Hawaii as a tourist. I am being charged $1,500 in taxes for the privilege. I get to Hawaii and am given a debit card with that $1,500 in taxes. I can spend it at any place in Hawaii, for things like food, local entertainment, and any other tourist related businesses in Hawaii. It expires at the end of the trip. You use it or lose it. (Don't spend it, it reverts to the state government.)

Provides a free market incentive to spend in Hawaii, and "cuts out the middleman" of government incentives.; while at the same time provides businesses incentives to meet the tourist needs (the best restaurants get the most business, ect.)

(How much do I get? Well, what are the added taxes mentioned in my previous post. They have to be paid in advance, so that is where you get the number. . .)


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## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> That is not the plan: the Hawaii State Legislature approved the funding for testing equipment to be installed in Hawaii airports last week, and that was posted in this thread a few days ago. They can implement Hawaii airport testing fairly quickly, but, it's not practical to require pre-flight testing at this point in time, because it would require all other states and countries with flights to Hawaii, to agree to it.
> 
> Also - the governor has already clearly stated that he doesn't expect to open tourism this summer, and that it will be the last step.  There is no mystery here.  But maybe you are just holding onto the hope that something will happen to open Hawaii this summer, and probably a lot of people are.  I think it's very unlikely, and the most prudent thing to do (if you are still holding reservations) it so start working on cancelling, and not wait too long.


I don't know if it is "the plan" or not, but the Lt. Gov. said it just last week. 

"Hawaii’s lieutenant governor and a member of its congressional delegation on Wednesday floated the idea of COVID-19 testing for any arriving air passenger *prior to travel* as a condition to reopen the tourism industry." 

And they didn't stop there. "U.S. Rep. Ed Case, a Hawaii Democrat, went a step further, sending a letter to Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Steve Dickson, seeking the agency’s 'cooperation in confirming Hawaii’s ability to impose and enforce conditions on air travel to Hawaii which are critical to ensuring (a) the health of Hawaii’s residents and visitors and (b) the safe recovery of Hawaii’s economy and in particular our travel and tourism industry. This could include requiring testing of all intended passengers (including crew) on any direct air travel to Hawaii before boarding,' Case wrote. 'Such testing could include at least fever testing and, as available, on-site rapid COVID-19 testing, as now required by international airlines such as Emirates on some flights.'”









						‘Travel with aloha’: COVID-19 testing floated for visitors arriving by air - West Hawaii Today
					

Hawaii’s lieutenant governor and a member of its congressional delegation on Wednesday floated the idea of COVID-19 testing for any arriving air passenger prior to travel as a condition to reopen the tourism industry.




					www.westhawaiitoday.com


----------



## beachlynn

csodjd said:


> Sure there is. It doesn't mean only a person with X net worth can come. All the need to do is move the needle. If today, say (pure hypothetical) their data shows that  25% of tourists spend on average $500/day or more, they can make a huge change by turning that into 40% that spend on average $500/day. You make it more expensive to stay in Hawaii and the needle will move. It may require a lot of art (and luck) to find the sweet spot. But it's very doable if that's what they want to do. Consider this: like London/Heathrow has done, imagine if they add a substantial tax (say 25%) on all flights arriving or departing. That alone would move the needle by making the trip too expensive for many (imagine the ordinary family of 4 or 5).


That seems pretty fantastical and wishful thinking. How do you tell businesses, when they are allowed to open up, that they need to move their prices up? It is called free Market. Sure maybe an airport can add a tax or the gov make the VAT tax higher but I would imagine the Hotel industry would push back or even sue. We know back in during the Recession that the ridiculous Maui Mayor put an unreasonable property tax on Timeshares, specifically Westin, which has been reversed and is winding it's way through the appeal process I believe.
If I own a little surf shop or a restaurant and I want to give reasonable prices then how is someone in the Maui Gov going to tell me what I need to charge? Everybody can't be Merriman's or Mama's. Also, locals go to restaurants and stores so you are taking a certain population of locals who may not make a ton of money and price them out of some businesses. It is really sad that you think it is a good idea that families couldn't save up for the trip of a lifetime. Nobody has any idea if that family is spending $500 a day vs say a Timeshare owner or VRBO renter who just sits on the beach and hits Costco and consumes very little in terms of restaurant or activities and shopping. I own 2 weeks in Hawaii and the Gov of Maui hasn't a clue what I spend.


----------



## jabberwocky

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Can the Hawaiian Government force an "up-market" change to tourism? The answer is yes.
> Will it best serve the interests of existing Hawaiian residents? That is unknown.
> 
> How to do it? State level taxes. (It is a truism that tourist are easy to tax. They can't vote.) What sort of taxes?
> Per head arrival taxes for airlines.
> Much higher hotel taxes.
> Much higher rental taxes on cars. (With lower taxes on people who can prove residency.)
> 
> High end tourism will not be discouraged, most likely it will be encouraged. Being able to afford to go to Hawaii will once again become a status symbol.
> An example is Switzerland. A very rich small country with both a long standing tourist industry, and a thriving ex-pat scene. But, believe me, it isn't cheap to go there, or to live there as an ex-pat.
> Hawaii might try to model themselves after Switzerland, with tropical beaches instead of mountains.
> 
> Would it work. Who knows?



The only problem with this line of thinking is that Switzerland generally has some of the lowest taxes globablly.  If I lived in my home canton of Zurich my taxes would be 1/5 of what I pay here in Canada.  Relative to the rest of Europe the VAT is very low and tourists/non-residents can get it refunded for larger purchases they are taking out of the country (very handy if you are buying a watch or handbag).

Increasing taxes on tourists will not help draw more tourists unless those increased taxes are used to make the island experience better (think better beaches, roads, attractive shopping areas, low crime) for those tourists - otherwise it is just a deadweight loss.  As a marketing professor I know says - the best way to signal quality for consumers is to consistently increase your price but at the same time increase the perceived value they receive.


----------



## csodjd

beachlynn said:


> That seems pretty fantastical and wishful thinking. How do you tell businesses, when they are allowed to open up, that they need to move their prices up? It is called free Market. Sure maybe an airport can add a tax or the gov make the VAT tax higher but I would imagine the Hotel industry would push back or even sue. We know back in during the Recession that the ridiculous Maui Mayor put an unreasonable property tax on Timeshares, specifically Westin, which has been reversed and is winding it's way through the appeal process I believe.
> If I own a little surf shop or a restaurant and I want to give reasonable prices then how is someone in the Maui Gov going to tell me what I need to charge? Everybody can't be Merriman's or Mama's. Also, locals go to restaurants and stores so you are taking a certain population of locals who may not make a ton of money and price them out of some businesses. It is really sad that you think it is a good idea that families couldn't save up for the trip of a lifetime. Nobody has any idea if that family is spending $500 a day vs say a Timeshare owner or VRBO renter who just sits on the beach and hits Costco and consumes very little in terms of restaurant or activities and shopping. I own 2 weeks in Hawaii and the Gov of Maui hasn't a clue what I spend.


All I'm hearing is that you're unfamiliar with statistics and data modeling, and equally unfamiliar with how governments use their taxing and fee powers to influence conduct. It's really, really, not hard to influence the behavior of tourists without harming, and even benefiting, residents.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> There is information in what is stated, and information in what is chosen NOT to be stated. That he views a plan not addressing tourism to be a plan to reopen Hawaii (how can a state be reopened when its largest industry is not included?) tells us all something about his thoughts about tourism generally. When thinking as a tourist about future planning, I see it almost as informative that he didn't see it necessary to even address tourism in his plan as if he had, especially since you can allow salons and barber shops to open on a lot shorter notice and ramp-up time than you can tourism. If anyone is planning July, or August, or possibly even September, I think the Governor's Q&A and his plan, and the decision not to address tourism in it, is "travel news" and that it tells you not to get your hopes up too much.



I agree with you that is why I stated in this forum before that a date should have been set for the ending of the 14 day quarantine for the tourists.  Vacation planning does take time and trips to Hawaii are expensive so more planning is involved than many other vacations.  Furthermore, July and August are prime vacation months for people with school children and those employed at school such as teachers.  If those summer vacation dollars are not spent in Hawaii in July or August they will not be spent in Hawaii this year.  They either will be spent somewhere else or they will be saved for next year.


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## LannyPC

csodjd said:


> a plan not addressing tourism to be a plan to reopen Hawaii (how can a state be reopened when its largest industry is not included?)



This is what I've been wondering.  Many businesses in HI depend primarily on tourist dollars.  I'm assuming that these businesses right now are seriously hurting and some are on the verge of going under.  I was just wondering if any of these businesses are screaming to someway, somehow ease or lift these restrictions on incoming travelers so as to support their businesses.  Has anyone heard such outcry from such business owners?

Disclaimer: I'm not stirring a debate as to when these restrictions should end or what the government should do about it.  I'm asking if anyone has heard any outcry from such business owners to quickly get these restrictions eased or lifted.


----------



## DEROS

If anyone was coming to Oahu for 4th of July fireworks at Ala Moana Beach Park/Magic Island, it was announced today it will be cancelled.

I look forward to this every year since Hawaii outlawed fireworks.  I guess this will be one quiet 4th of July.  Naw....  Who am I kidding.  Illegal fireworks will sky rocket in Oahu this year.


----------



## slip

DEROS said:


> If anyone was coming to Oahu for 4th of July fireworks at Ala Moana Beach Park/Magic Island, it was announced today it will be cancelled.
> 
> I look forward to this every year since Hawaii outlawed fireworks.  I guess this will be one quiet 4th of July.  Naw....  Who am I kidding.  Illegal fireworks will sky rocket in Oahu this year.



I was surprised how much I saw for New Years. It was awesome.


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## amy241

Social media proves a powerful tool in cracking down on quarantine violators
					

State lawmakers are pushing for tougher enforcement of the 14-day traveler quarantine, which has been extended through June 30.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## Tamaradarann

beachlynn said:


> That seems pretty fantastical and wishful thinking. How do you tell businesses, when they are allowed to open up, that they need to move their prices up? It is called free Market. Sure maybe an airport can add a tax or the gov make the VAT tax higher but I would imagine the Hotel industry would push back or even sue. We know back in during the Recession that the ridiculous Maui Mayor put an unreasonable property tax on Timeshares, specifically Westin, which has been reversed and is winding it's way through the appeal process I believe.
> If I own a little surf shop or a restaurant and I want to give reasonable prices then how is someone in the Maui Gov going to tell me what I need to charge? Everybody can't be Merriman's or Mama's. Also, locals go to restaurants and stores so you are taking a certain population of locals who may not make a ton of money and price them out of some businesses. It is really sad that you think it is a good idea that families couldn't save up for the trip of a lifetime. Nobody has any idea if that family is spending $500 a day vs say a Timeshare owner or VRBO renter who just sits on the beach and hits Costco and consumes very little in terms of restaurant or activities and shopping. I own 2 weeks in Hawaii and the Gov of Maui hasn't a clue what I spend.



I agree with alot of the thinking here on the high end tourist.  Timeshare owners are NOT high spending tourists.  Since their accomdations are already paid for with maintenance and have kitchens in the units they usually eat many of their meals in the timeshare and save a considerable amount on restaurants for food as well as alcohol, I know we do.  I believe that a great deal of the first tourists to Hawaii will be timeshare owners.  VRBO renters are also low spending but at least they are paying something per night, although lower than hotels, for their accommodations.

The tourist to Maui may be somewhat higher income than the other islands so that increasing the cost to go there may be able to fly successfully.  I know that Hawaii news usually says that the room rate in Maui is higher than the other islands.  

Hotel rooms are certainly one of the major costs of travel to Hawaii so that raising taxes on those could attract a higher spending tourist and additional income/tourist.  However, in addition to the timeshare and VRBO lower spender we know a good deal of seniors who rent apartments in Hawaii at a very low cost/night.  Those people will continue to be low spender tourists.  

Another thought is that many of the high end tourists, particularly in Honolulu are Japanese.  Is travel to Hawaii going to be opened up internationally?


----------



## Tamaradarann

slip said:


> I was surprised how much I saw for New Years. It was awesome.



We were there on New Year's Eve and the fireworks at the Duke's Statue were great.  It was great before social distancing came into effect otherwise they would have had to arrest most of Waikiki and 1/2 of Honolulu.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Hotel rooms are certainly one of the major costs of travel to Hawaii so that raising taxes on those could attract a higher spending tourist and additional income/tourist. However, in addition to the timeshare and VRBO lower spender we know a good deal of seniors who rent apartments in Hawaii at a very low cost/night. Those people will continue to be low spender tourists.


Again (and again), they don't need to eliminate low spend tourists to achieve their goal, they only need to shift the numbers so that they have MORE higher spending and FEWER low spending tourists. It's not an all-or-nothing proposition. Hawaii has a LOT of tourists at any given time. Just creating a pressure that leads to 5% more high spenders and 5% fewer low spenders, changes the dynamics. Add in that every spender must spend a bit more -- very easily done with an airport tax -- and the Hawaii government can affect a very significant change in the tourism socioeconomic demographics. 

I think the easier way to understand is just a change in the *mentality *of the Hawaiian government toward tourists. In the past they didn't want to construct barriers to tourism out of fear it would reduce the number of tourists and hurt the economy. Instead they may decide they are okay with reducing the number of tourists if they can at least maintain their revenue goals from tourism. Again, just a landing tax would do that. 

If any of you fly much to Europe you will appreciate the efforts often made to avoid London in order to not have to pay the airport tax at Heathrow. I have four flights, all business class, scheduled to Europe, two where my destination is London. None go to London, however. I saved several thousand dollars -- all in taxes imposed at Heathrow -- by flying to Paris, then taking a commuter to London.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I agree with you that is why I stated in this forum before that a date should have been set for the ending of the 14 day quarantine for the tourists.


Agree. At least a target, and then updating it as time passes and confidence goes up, or down, that the target will be met. However, I suspect that the 14-day quarantine will not go away, possibly until there is a vaccine -- they will just create exceptions to it or ways to avoid it, such as satisfactory proof you are not infected.


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## 1Kflyerguy

Things are moving on the testing prior to flight idea.   I saw on the news last night that the Federal Government is considering have the TSA check check temperatures before all flights.   In addition it looks like Hawaii has at least some level of approval from the White House to require a negative test prior to travel.









						How to restart tourism? Lawmakers push the idea of requiring negative COVID-19 tests
					

There is broad consensus that pre-flight testing is the only way to revive Hawaii’s tourism industry while keeping the virus out.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				




I like the both ideas.  Air travel is considered risky by many, so performing some type of testing for all flights not just Hawaii would potentially slow the spread, and would certainly help improve the public confidence.  I traveled around Asia during the SARs outbreak and remember having to go though thermal screening to exit the plane in Singapore, as well as when entering some of my suppliers factory.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> Again (and again), they don't need to eliminate low spend tourists to achieve their goal, they only need to shift the numbers so that they have MORE higher spending and FEWER low spending tourists. It's not an all-or-nothing proposition. Hawaii has a LOT of tourists at any given time. Just creating a pressure that leads to 5% more high spenders and 5% fewer low spenders, changes the dynamics. Add in that every spender must spend a bit more -- very easily done with an airport tax -- and the Hawaii government can affect a very significant change in the tourism socioeconomic demographics.
> 
> I think the easier way to understand is just a change in the *mentality *of the Hawaiian government toward tourists. In the past they didn't want to construct barriers to tourism out of fear it would reduce the number of tourists and hurt the economy. Instead they may decide they are okay with reducing the number of tourists if they can at least maintain their revenue goals from tourism. Again, just a landing tax would do that.
> 
> If any of you fly much to Europe you will appreciate the efforts often made to avoid London in order to not have to pay the airport tax at Heathrow. I have four flights, all business class, scheduled to Europe, two where my destination is London. None go to London, however. I saved several thousand dollars -- all in taxes imposed at Heathrow -- by flying to Paris, then taking a commuter to London.



If a person pays the airport tax that is no guarantee that they are higher spenders.

Also, You had mentioned before the Maui mayor was talking a 50% reduction in rental cars. The 5 to 10% shift you are talking about will not cover that.


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## amy241

[Please note - this is just Bob McDermott's _proposal_ - it hasn't be approved by the Gov. or state legislature. DeniseM]

I received an email from Go Visit Hawaii today that stated:

*Proposed process for reopening Hawaii’s tourism*
In a 23-page document, Making Hawaii Safe For Travel, presented by Representative Bob Mcdermott, the following _*proposed*_ *framework *outlines the process. Note we’ve bolded some of the text that we feel is most relevant for Hawaii tourists:

1) Governor David Ige must petition the Federal Government to require all Hawaii bound passengers be tested within 72 hours prior to arrival. Until then we will implement the following steps.

2) Request *ALL travelers be tested up to 72 hours prior to their departure to Hawaii*. Travelers can *get a rapid test and have the negative results electronically transmitted to the airline with an identifying record number*. Travelers that test positive shall receive a full refund of airfare and not travel to Hawaii.

3) All travelers receive a *temperature screen* and board the airplane with negative COVID-19 test results bound for Hawaii.

4) While we cannot legally mandate testing nor infringe one’s right to travel, we can ensure travelers are aware of *the consequences of not being tested prior to arrival. We shall inform travelers they have a final chance to obtain a COVID-19 test at the airport or they will quarantine for 14 days*. Testing at the airport will be cumbersome and could take up to 12 hours. If the traveler tests positive, they will be quarantined.

5) The first preference is for travelers to be tested prior to departing for Hawaii but back up airport testing will be available for those who arrive without being tested. The National Guard shall oversee this effort. We suggest they use Abbott Rapid test machines. A sufficient quantity (100 Machines @ 4 tests per hour/ 400 *24 = 9600 per day capacity) should be available within 30 to 60 days to meet the residual demand of arrivals who are not already tested.

6) National Guard shall assist in the enforcement of the quarantine of ALL non-tested or positive testing arrivals. Quarantine must be strict as outlined in our letters to the Governor (attached) and must include returning Hawaii residents. The state shall designate a safe location for the quarantine. We suggest that this be run by MG Hara and the National Guard. Gov. Ige said the 14 Day-Quarantine was a huge success. It was a success in the sense of keeping visitors away, but in tracking visitors and returning residents, it has proven unenforceable and ultimately useless.

7) In addition to predeparture testing, the airline shall ensure *travel declaration forms are submitted, accurate and verified*. This is *critical in case contact tracing is required*. The Department of Health (DOH) shall oversee the contact tracing efforts when needed.

8) *Visitors shall be tested every seven calendar days by a local testing facility approved by the DOH during their stay*.

9) To ensure the safety of airport, airline and travel-related employees *all departures require testing*.

10) All *visitor industry employees shall be tested once a week*. Testing shall be free to employees and coordinated by the employer and respective labor groups.

Once again, please note that this is in proposal form at the moment.

*What’s next?*
From a legislative standpoint, we aren’t privy to those details, but it’s clear that *Governor Ige and other Hawaii lawmakers will need to approve such measures*. The Governor has indicated that he wants a screening process.

Obviously, *many logistics will need to be ironed out* before these recommendations can be implemented. Not the least of these issues is the current lack of available testing. Some have suggested that travelers can simply go to their local CVS or Walgreens and obtain a rapid test. Those tests aren’t easily procured at the moment. COVID testing at Walgreens is only available in 16 states, while CVS COVID testing is available in just eight states. So, the *capacity for testing will really need to ramp up*. Also, the qualifications for testing will need to be expanded so that travelers to Hawaii can have access to them.

*It’s not a perfect plan*
Clearly, this plan is not without flaws. For example, getting a negative test 72 or even 48 hours before flying to Hawaii does not insure that you won’t get the virus.

This proposed plan is also not an ideal situation, but it could possibly be the solution to allow tourism while providing a level of protection to Hawaii’s citizens.


----------



## amy241

#8 requiring a tourist to be tested every 7 days while in Hawaii seems a little extreme. Are they requiring their own residents to be tested every 7 days?


----------



## amy241

The problem with rapid testing at both Walgreens and CVS (besides the fact that it is unavailable in many states) is that it requires prescreening for symptoms in order to test. That makes it unlikely that the average healthy tourist could even get tested at either pharmacy. Both pharmacies offer testing in Florida where I live - because I checked their websites - but it is limited to those presenting symptoms.


----------



## csodjd

amy241 said:


> The problem with rapid testing at both Walgreens and CVS (besides the fact that it is unavailable in many states) is that it requires prescreening for symptoms in order to test. That makes it unlikely that the average healthy tourist could even get tested at either pharmacy. Both pharmacies offer testing in Florida where I live - because I checked their websites - but it is limited to those presenting symptoms.


That varies by region. In Los Angeles anyone can get a test, no prescreening required. As testing becomes more available I'd expect many or most places to allow anyone to get tested.


----------



## csodjd

amy241 said:


> #8 requiring a tourist to be tested every 7 days while in Hawaii seems a little extreme. Are they requiring their own residents to be tested every 7 days?


Agree. That's the one that jumped out at me as difficult to make happen. That, and testing on departure. That seems unnecessary and could create massive delays. If it takes up to 12 hours to get tested and results on arrival one might guess the same could happen leaving. 

But the concept of tested before you fly and if you don't, wait at the airport on arrival to get tested, or have a required quarantine at a sight managed by the state, is a workable solution. Combined with a temperature and symptoms screen, you will filter out most infection.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> If a person pays the airport tax that is no guarantee that they are higher spenders.
> 
> Also, You had mentioned before the Maui mayor was talking a 50% reduction in rental cars. The 5 to 10% shift you are talking about will not cover that.


As to the first point, of course it isn't a guarantee. It is a pressure gradient, not a filter. There's no guarantee a person walking into Nordstrum's is a big spender or has lots of money. The person could be virtually broke. But, if you're choosing whose inheritance you want, you'd probably choose the Nordstrum's shopper over TJ Maxx. As the cost goes up, you gradually change who will/can pay it. Again, and again, it's not an all-or-nothing. But someone willing and able to spend $1000 for a coach fare is MORE LIKELY to be a spender than someone only willing or able to spend $400. 

As to the second, that's an even easier one. If they limit the licensing of cars they will simply force tourists into other modes of transportation. Shuttle service, etc.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

I am glad to finally see a proposed plan.  This does however seem pretty ambitious to me.  

From what i hear it not that easy to get tested in all states.  While the country offers free testing in my area, i imagine tests for travel won't be offered for free, and in fact will require you to visit a a commercial lab.    

The idea that the labs would then transmit the data electronically to the airline will require new software connections for the labs and airlines.  

Also while its nice to get your airfare refunded,  lots of times the car rental, and accommodations may incur a substantial penalty or loss if you cancel at the last minute...


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> As to the first point, of course it isn't a guarantee. It is a pressure gradient, not a filter. There's no guarantee a person walking into Nordstrum's is a big spender or has lots of money. The person could be virtually broke. But, if you're choosing whose inheritance you want, you'd probably choose the Nordstrum's shopper over TJ Maxx. As the cost goes up, you gradually change who will/can pay it. Again, and again, it's not an all-or-nothing. But someone willing and able to spend $1000 for a coach fare is MORE LIKELY to be a spender than someone only willing or able to spend $400.
> 
> As to the second, that's an even easier one. If they limit the licensing of cars they will simply force tourists into other modes of transportation. Shuttle service, etc.



Just don’t see any of that working. It would take forever to fine tune what you are describing.

We’ll just see how things play out.


----------



## csodjd

Story this morning. They appear to emphasize that pre-flight testing is the key and that the White House has approved that, but not much additional detail.









						How to restart tourism? Lawmakers push the idea of requiring negative COVID-19 tests
					

There is broad consensus that pre-flight testing is the only way to revive Hawaii’s tourism industry while keeping the virus out.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Again (and again), they don't need to eliminate low spend tourists to achieve their goal, they only need to shift the numbers so that they have MORE higher spending and FEWER low spending tourists. It's not an all-or-nothing proposition. Hawaii has a LOT of tourists at any given time. Just creating a pressure that leads to 5% more high spenders and 5% fewer low spenders, changes the dynamics. Add in that every spender must spend a bit more -- very easily done with an airport tax -- and the Hawaii government can affect a very significant change in the tourism socioeconomic demographics.
> 
> I think the easier way to understand is just a change in the *mentality *of the Hawaiian government toward tourists. In the past they didn't want to construct barriers to tourism out of fear it would reduce the number of tourists and hurt the economy. Instead they may decide they are okay with reducing the number of tourists if they can at least maintain their revenue goals from tourism. Again, just a landing tax would do that.
> 
> If any of you fly much to Europe you will appreciate the efforts often made to avoid London in order to not have to pay the airport tax at Heathrow. I have four flights, all business class, scheduled to Europe, two where my destination is London. None go to London, however. I saved several thousand dollars -- all in taxes imposed at Heathrow -- by flying to Paris, then taking a commuter to London.



I thought I heard that the Maui Mayor wanted to cut the number of tourists by 50% and increase the spending of the remaining tourists to make up the difference.  That is a fantasy.  You get the big income dollars from lots of tourists.  Particularly now when some people have been burdened with lower income and I believe all of us have had extra expenditures and/or spent extra dollars for the same items due to this virus this is the wrong time to make any move to reduce tourists.  In the for seeable future Hawaii needs all the tourists who spend as much as they can until they get back to a pre-coronavirus state.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I thought I heard that the Maui Mayor wanted to cut the number of tourists by 50% and increase the spending of the remaining tourists to make up the difference.  That is a fantasy.  You get the big income dollars from lots of tourists.  Particularly now when some people have been burdened with lower income and I believe all of us have had extra expenditures and/or spent extra dollars for the same items due to this virus this is the wrong time to make any move to reduce tourists.  In the for seeable future Hawaii needs all the tourists who spend as much as they can until they get back to a pre-coronavirus state.


I don't recall 50% except in a mention of reducing rental cars. I do recall many mentions of trying to reduce the number of tourists and increase the amount spent, sometimes referred to as reducing quantity and increasing quality.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I don't recall 50% except in a mention of reducing rental cars. I do recall many mentions of trying to reduce the number of tourists and increase the amount spent, sometimes referred to as reducing quantity and increasing quality.



The usual number of tourist comiing to Hawaii is about 30,000/day.  Right now it is less than 1,000/day.  If Hawaii does not increase the number of tourists by a very large number they will continue to be in a bad economic situation.  That should be their focus; while trying to keep the number of coronavirus cases very low.  Putting obstacles other than limiting the spread of the virus in tourists coming is the worst thing they could do now.

In addition to the Maui Mayor's fallacy of keeping the income up while reducing the number of tourists, reducing the rental cars on Maui will reduce the number of tourists and also reduce the income since the rental car is a significant expenditure of tourists and almost everyone that goes to Maui uses a car to get around.  It is not Honolulu.

As I mentioned before the Maui Mayor's liking the timeshare people is contrary to his efforts to boost tourist expenditures while reducing the number of tourist since Timeshare people eat many meals in their unit since they have a kitchen so they save monty on resturants.  That is another reason that you need a rental car to shop for food for your kitchen.

One last thought on the coronavirus social distancing and tourist expenditures.  We spend a couple of thousand dollars everytime we go to Hawaii on Theatres.  Small live performances at the Diamond Head, Manoa Valley, Brad Powell Theatre, Arts at Marks Garage, Kumu Kahua Theatre, Blue Note, One King Arts Theatre, as well as the Doris Duke Theatre and the Blaisdale Concert Hall for Symphonies and other performances.  If social distancing is still the order of the day they would not be able to survice with every third seat being full.  That will be a few thousand less that we will spend in Hawaii when we are there.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> The usual number of tourist comiing to Hawaii is about 30,000/day.  Right now it is less than 1,000/day.  If Hawaii does not increase the number of tourists by a very large number they will continue to be in a bad economic situation.  That should be their focus; while trying to keep the number of coronavirus cases very low.  Putting obstacles other than limiting the spread of the virus in tourists coming is the worst thing they could do now.
> 
> In addition to the Maui Mayor's fallacy of keeping the income up while reducing the number of tourists, reducing the rental cars on Maui will reduce the number of tourists and also reduce the income since the rental car is a significant expenditure of tourists and almost everyone that goes to Maui uses a car to get around.  It is not Honolulu.
> 
> As I mentioned before the Maui Mayor's liking the timeshare people is contrary to his efforts to boost tourist expenditures while reducing the number of tourist since Timeshare people eat many meals in their unit since they have a kitchen so they save monty on resturants.  That is another reason that you need a rental car to shop for food for your kitchen.
> 
> One last thought on the coronavirus social distancing and tourist expenditures.  We spend a couple of thousand dollars everytime we go to Hawaii on Theatres.  Small live performances at the Diamond Head, Manoa Valley, Brad Powell Theatre, Arts at Marks Garage, Kumu Kahua Theatre, Blue Note, One King Arts Theatre, as well as the Doris Duke Theatre and the Blaisdale Concert Hall for Symphonies and other performances.  If social distancing is still the order of the day they would not be able to survice with every third seat being full.  That will be a few thousand less that we will spend in Hawaii when we are there.


Like many others, they have a lot of work and figuring out to do when it comes to things like going to the theater. 

I know there is a perception that the TS owner spends less because they have the benefits of the kitchen. And I'm sure that's true to an extent. But, it sure doesn't feel that way. I seem to spend PLENTY of money on food (and the frequent mai tai). To some extent it may be at Costco or the market instead of a restaurant, but the TS owners are more like residents in those respects and spend money at local places that the honeymoon couple doesn't visit. 

Your comments about the car in Maui made me laugh, because I JUST, immediately before coming on here, reserved a car for a week in Maui in November. Great price though... $381 all in for a Mustang convertible.  Now I just hope we'll be going.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Like many others, they have a lot of work and figuring out to do when it comes to things like going to the theater.
> 
> I know there is a perception that the TS owner spends less because they have the benefits of the kitchen. And I'm sure that's true to an extent. But, it sure doesn't feel that way. I seem to spend PLENTY of money on food (and the frequent mai tai). To some extent it may be at Costco or the market instead of a restaurant, but the TS owners are more like residents in those respects and spend money at local places that the honeymoon couple doesn't visit.
> 
> Your comments about the car in Maui made me laugh, because I JUST, immediately before coming on here, reserved a car for a week in Maui in November. Great price though... $381 all in for a Mustang convertible.  Now I just hope we'll be going.



Since we have been timeshare travelling we save a great deal of money eating all of our breakfasts, lunches, and about 1/2 our dinners in the unit.  When we do go out to dinner we eat salad in the room and usually have a couple of drinks before going to out to dinner if we are going to drink.  We don't drink and drive that is why we love to be in Honolulu since we walk or take the bus to dinner.   That saves about 1/2 the cost of a dinner out.  Seniors ride for $1 with a Medicare Card but we don't pay at all since we get a senior monthly or annual bus pass). Our one weakness is not the frequent mai tai it is the microbrews at breweries.  We do partake of those about once a week.  You can't beat a strong 10% alcohol IPA or Coconut Stout on tap.

As far a shopping you have it right to go to Costco.  Since we don't have a car in Honolulu we walk to Sam's.  Our weekly trip with our duffle bags is to Target, Walmart, and Sam's all in or right next to the Ala Moana Mall to fill up on groceries.  The prices are great.   You need to stay away from the supermarkets as much as possible since their prices are about double the Continental United States prices.  We do walk to Food Pantry on Hobron for a tomato or two and a head of lettuce if we run out during the week.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Since we have been timeshare travelling we save a great deal of money eating all of our breakfasts, lunches, and about 1/2 our dinners in the unit.


We are similar, perhaps somewhat less than that, but being undisciplined as we are, largely view those savings as freeing up money to spend on something else. I'm also a rather avid golfer and always spend one to two thousand on golf when I'm there.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Tamaradarann said:


> As I mentioned before the Maui Mayor's liking the timeshare people is contrary to his efforts to boost tourist expenditures while reducing the number of tourist since Timeshare people eat many meals in their unit since they have a kitchen so they save money on restaurants.  That is another reason that you need a rental car to shop for food for your kitchen.



I don't think the Mayor said timeshare people necessarily spend more money.  He said that timeshare people tend to be repeat visitors and typically show respect for islands and the local culture.  Since they visit frequently many consider the islands a second home.

My take away from this interview and some of the other comments by public officials is that Hawaii would like to attract a higher quality visitor.  Their is more to being a quality visitor than how much you spend.  I think it also your attitude and the way you behave while there.


----------



## HeidingOut

[Deleted:  Political/Socially contentious posts are not permitted on TUG.]

*Avoid posting about politics, religion, or contentious social issues Unless directly related to timesharing, such discussions are prohibited in these forums, including TUG Lounge. We've been down that road before, it was ugly, and we are not going there again.*


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> We are similar, perhaps somewhat less than that, but being undisciplined as we are, largely view those savings as freeing up money to spend on something else. I'm also a rather avid golfer and always spend one to two thousand on golf when I'm there.



Well my husband and I don't budget we get what we want and do what we want within limits for the best price or least cost.  We have stayed in Hawaii from 3-4 months since we retired in 2009.  Without timeshares we couldn't have afforded to do that.  We also couldn't have afforded to do that if we rented a car, shopped at the grocery stores, took Taxis or Ubers, ate out more than a few times a week.  

My husband also golfed quite a bit when he was younger.  He always raves about when he was a kid how he played the Black Course at Bethpage State Park on Long Island which has held the US Open for $2.  He hasn't played in Hawaii.


----------



## bnoble

HeidingOut said:


> I'm not trying to stir trouble here.


If you have to say this as your lead sentence, chances are that sentence is wrong.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Well my husband and I don't budget we get what we want and do what we want within limits for the best price or least cost.  We have stayed in Hawaii from 3-4 months since we retired in 2009.  Without timeshares we couldn't have afforded to do that.  We also couldn't have afforded to do that if we rented a car, shopped at the grocery stores, took Taxis or Ubers, ate out more than a few times a week.
> 
> My husband also golfed quite a bit when he was younger.  He always raves about when he was a kid how he played the Black Course at Bethpage State Park on Long Island which has held the US Open for $2.  He hasn't played in Hawaii.


Oahu has one of the best public courses in the Country. https://www.koolaugolfclub.com/ Not Bethpage or Torry Pines, but really a great course to play. You can buy a 3-round package for $330. That's less than one round cost me at Waialae, which, other than being in great condition, I found to be a pretty ordinary course.


----------



## rickandcindy23

Ka'anapali Beach Club is open 6/1.  I just found that out from some people who are supposed to go 7/3-7/17.  They are willing to go to Maui, if they don't have to quarantine.


----------



## slip

rickandcindy23 said:


> Ka'anapali Beach Club is open 6/1.  I just found that out from some people who are supposed to go 7/3-7/17.  They are willing to go to Maui, if they don't have to quarantine.



From the way the governor is talking July doesn’t sound good.


----------



## csodjd

rickandcindy23 said:


> Ka'anapali Beach Club is open 6/1.  I just found that out from some people who are supposed to go 7/3-7/17.  They are willing to go to Maui, if they don't have to quarantine.


That's a big if. I suspect a LOT of people are "willing" to go to Maui if they don't have to quarantine.


----------



## beachlynn

Tamaradarann said:


> I agree with alot of the thinking here on the high end tourist.  Timeshare owners are NOT high spending tourists.  Since their accomdations are already paid for with maintenance and have kitchens in the units they usually eat many of their meals in the timeshare and save a considerable amount on restaurants for food as well as alcohol, I know we do.  I believe that a great deal of the first tourists to Hawaii will be timeshare owners.  VRBO renters are also low spending but at least they are paying something per night, although lower than hotels, for their accommodations.
> 
> The tourist to Maui may be somewhat higher income than the other islands so that increasing the cost to go there may be able to fly successfully.  I know that Hawaii news usually says that the room rate in Maui is higher than the other islands.
> 
> Hotel rooms are certainly one of the major costs of travel to Hawaii so that raising taxes on those could attract a higher spending tourist and additional income/tourist.  However, in addition to the timeshare and VRBO lower spender we know a good deal of seniors who rent apartments in Hawaii at a very low cost/night.  Those people will continue to be low spender tourists.
> 
> Another thought is that many of the high end tourists, particularly in Honolulu are Japanese.  Is travel to Hawaii going to be opened up internationally?


Tell that to my credit card.  We spend a lot. Golf, Fishing, Whale Watching, Spa treatments, restaurants. I think TS owners are split. I sure see a lot of people dressed up to go to dinner. Even if we cook a meal in we go to Farmers Markets and local grocery stores. One could also say that some of the really high maintenance fees are used to pay locals workers to work on the properties.  I can't wait to get over there, when it is fully open of course, to go to our favorite places.


----------



## controller1

beachlynn said:


> Tell that to my credit card.  We spend a lot. Golf, Fishing, Whale Watching, Spa treatments, restaurants. I think TS owners are split. I sure see a lot of people dressed up to go to dinner. Even if we cook a meal in we go to Farmers Markets and local grocery stores. One could also say that some of the really high maintenance fees are used to pay locals workers to work on the properties.  I can't wait to get over there, when it is fully open of course, to go to our favorite places.



I agree all TS owners are not the type who cook most meals in their villas and are self-sufficient. We cook about 50% of our lunches and only about 20% of our dinners. We purchase drinks and food at the pool and will go on at least two catamaran trips over a two-week period. We also rent cabanas, beach chairs/umbrellas, will have a spa treatment or two and purchase groceries. In a two-week period we will spend on Maui at least 1.5x our annual maintenance fees. AND we do this twice a year.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

controller1 said:


> I agree all TS owners are not the type who cook most meals in their villas and are self-sufficient. We cook about 50% of our lunches and only about 20% of our dinners. We purchase drinks and food at the pool and will go on at least two catamaran trips over a two-week period. We also rent cabanas, beach chairs/umbrellas, will have a spa treatment or two and purchase groceries. In a two-week period we will spend on Maui at least 1.5x our annual maintenance fees. AND we do this twice a year.



We are pretty similar.  I almost always fix breakfast in the room,  but otherwise, we eat out quite a bit.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

When we are in Hawaii we cook most of our meals in.  Our time in Hawaii is usually a multi-generation family time, and the process of planning and preparing meals, especially dinner, is a social activity.  involving preparation of beverages, grilling meat, preparing salads, etc.  We enjoy all sitting around a table, and letting the meal go as long as wanted, in a relaxed and informal atmosphere.  

That being said, we generally do spend at least two nights having a dinner at a restaurant, and will often do takeout once or twice - usually when we've been doing a long-activity and it's getting too late to do a full meal preparation.


----------



## Luanne

When we are in Hawaii we cook breakfast in most of the time.  This is after we take our morning walk to get coffee.  We go out to breakfast a few times, like after a whale watch.  We alternate eating lunches and dinners out.


----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> When we are in Hawaii we cook breakfast in most of the time.  This is after we take our morning walk to get coffee.  We go out to breakfast a few times, like after a whale watch.  We alternate eating lunches and dinners out.


Breakfast is in the room about 5x per week, and lunch is about 50-50. We always cook 2-3 dinners each week, and eat out other nights. The simple fact is, some of those nice dinners out, expensive as they may be, are also some of the most memorable times. Sunset dinners at a nice restaurant overlooking the ocean is one of the reasons we GO to Hawaii.


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> Breakfast is in the room about 5x per week, and lunch is about 50-50. We always cook 2-3 dinners each week, and eat out other nights. The simple fact is, some of those nice dinners out, expensive as they may be, are also some of the most memorable times. Sunset dinners at a nice restaurant overlooking the ocean is one of the reasons we GO to Hawaii.


Two words:  fresh fish


----------



## Tamaradarann

beachlynn said:


> Tell that to my credit card.  We spend a lot. Golf, Fishing, Whale Watching, Spa treatments, restaurants. I think TS owners are split. I sure see a lot of people dressed up to go to dinner. Even if we cook a meal in we go to Farmers Markets and local grocery stores. One could also say that some of the really high maintenance fees are used to pay locals workers to work on the properties.  I can't wait to get over there, when it is fully open of course, to go to our favorite places.



Since we stay in Hawaii for 3-5 months every winter we could only afford to do it by economizing as we do at home When Timesharing.  We eat all of our breakfasts, lunches(or pack a lunch to eat out), and about 1/2 our dinners in the unit.  When we do go out to dinner we eat salad and have a couple of drinks in the unit before going to out to dinner.  That saves about 1/2 the cost of a dinner out.  We don't rent a car so we walk or take the bus when we go out.  Seniors ride for $1 with a Medicare Card but we don't pay at all since we get a senior monthly or annual bus pass.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Since we stay in Hawaii for 3-5 months every winter we could only afford to do it by economizing as we do at home When Timesharing.  We eat all of our breakfasts, lunches(or pack a lunch to eat out), and about 1/2 our dinners in the unit.  When we do go out to dinner we eat salad and have a couple of drinks in the unit before going to out to dinner.  That saves about 1/2 the cost of a dinner out.  We don't rent a car so we walk or take the bus when we go out.  Seniors ride for $1 with a Medicare Card but we don't pay at all since we get a senior monthly or annual bus pass.


I'd love to hear how you arrange the 3-5 months. Is that all TS? I've thought about a leasehold. Or maybe just buying some cheap points. I have about 24,000 Hilton points, and another 2BR Marriott week that can be 2 weeks. But I'm curious about how you make the 3-5 months happen.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I'd love to hear how you arrange the 3-5 months. Is that all TS? I've thought about a leasehold. Or maybe just buying some cheap points. I have about 24,000 Hilton points, and another 2BR Marriott week that can be 2 weeks. But I'm curious about how you make the 3-5 months happen.



Well we have 34,600 HGVC points and 86,500 RCI points, and usually over 1,000,000 Hilton Honors Points.  We have never paid for nights on the 4 main Hawaiian Islands but have hopped over to Molokai and Lanai for a few nights in between.  We had also had built up probably a years worth of points from the previous year when we started doing this in 2009.

We mostly stay in Studios in Honolulu using HGVC points, but have booked RCI weeks in a Studios and 1 BRs on all 4 Hawaiian Islands.  As you know Studios are only 2200 points a week during   Platinum Season.  At times we have used the Hilton Honors Points for a few nights to get us to the next timeshare reservation.  

However, recently we have been borrowing from the next year since as I have mentioned before that we now own a Leasehold Unit at the Wailana that we are currently renting.  It is right across the street from the Hilton Hawaiian Village so location wise it is the same as being in the HHV.  We had planned on moving in this fall until this coronavirus fiasco turned the plan into an unknown future.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward

Tamaradarann said:


> Well we have 34,600 HGVC points and 86,500 RCI points, and usually over 1,000,000 Hilton Honors Points.  We have never paid for nights on the 4 main Hawaiian Islands but have hopped over to Molokai and Lanai for a few nights in between.  We had also had built up probably a years worth of points from the previous year when we started doing this in 2009.
> 
> We mostly stay in Studios in Honolulu using HGVC points, but have booked RCI weeks in a Studios and 1 BRs on all 4 Hawaiian Islands.  As you know Studios are only 2200 points a week during   Platinum Season.  At times we have used the Hilton Honors Points for a few nights to get us to the next timeshare reservation.
> 
> However, recently we have been borrowing from the next year since as I have mentioned before that we now own a Leasehold Unit at the Wailana that we are currently renting.  It is right across the street from the Hilton Hawaiian Village so location wise it is the same as being in the HHV.  We had planned on moving in this fall until this coronavirus fiasco turned the plan into an unknown future.



How did you handle mail?


----------



## controller1

Tamaradarann said:


> Since we stay in Hawaii for 3-5 months every winter we could only afford to do it by economizing as we do at home When Timesharing.  We eat all of our breakfasts, lunches(or pack a lunch to eat out), and about 1/2 our dinners in the unit.  When we do go out to dinner we eat salad and have a couple of drinks in the unit before going to out to dinner.  That saves about 1/2 the cost of a dinner out.  We don't rent a car so we walk or take the bus when we go out.  Seniors ride for $1 with a Medicare Card but we don't pay at all since we get a senior monthly or annual bus pass.




That works for you but what some of us are saying is your previous statement (shown below) is NOT true since you made it as a universal statement.




Tamaradarann said:


> Timeshare owners are NOT high spending tourists.


----------



## Kapolei




----------



## gdrj

I did watch one of the press conferences or listen to one of the mayors radio interviews and I’m not sure the mayor has a clear vision of how to get where he wants to be.  I did hear him say they want people who are here for longer periods of time (2 weeks +) vs. shor t trips.  I did not hear him say anything about time share visitors NOT being welcome, though I may have missed it.  I took it more as Air BNB and VRBO etc as not being the guests they are striving for.  

As far as reducing rental cars, from a traffic stand point that make sense, BUT tourist still need to get to resorts, so Vans/busses with multiple traveling parties Bringing guests helps social distancing how?  There are two different issues. COVID-19 and tourism saturation.  Hawaii created the tourism over population.They approved, hotels, timeshares AirBNB etc. 

limiting rental cars will not encourage spending, it will encourage guests to not go out.


----------



## Tamaradarann

controller1 said:


> That works for you but what some of us are saying is your previous statement (shown below) is NOT true since you made it as a universal statement.



You are correct, people can spend as much as they want when they are timesharing.  I was pointing out some of the financial benefits that attracts many peope to timesharing and that attracted me to timesharing.  I personally don't know anyone that does not take advantage of those financial benefits.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> How did you handle mail?



Our adult Son stays home in our house and forwards it about once a month or so.  We pay all of our bills automatically.


----------



## bnoble

gdrj said:


> limiting rental cars will not encourage spending, it will encourage guests to not go out.



I see it a little differently. Limiting cars is about discouraging the visitors that they seem to be talking about wanting fewer of. 

Limiting rental cars drives up the price of an individual car. If you are staying in a resort destination (one of the Hilton complexes, Ko Olina, etc.) you can probably do without a car and maybe book a day trip or two, and given the price of parking maybe you already were. But, if you are in an e.g. AirBnB/VRBO well, that just drives up the price of your overall vacation. Maybe some people think twice about going at that point.


----------



## Tamaradarann

bnoble said:


> I see it a little differently. Limiting cars is about discouraging the visitors that they seem to be talking about wanting fewer of.
> 
> Limiting rental cars drives up the price of an individual car. If you are staying in a resort destination (one of the Hilton complexes, Ko Olina, etc.) you can probably do without a car and maybe book a day trip or two, and given the price of parking maybe you already were. But, if you are in an e.g. AirBnB/VRBO well, that just drives up the price of your overall vacation. Maybe some people think twice about going at that point.



Everywhere in Hawaii but Honolulu limiting cars will reduce the number of tourist that come.  The only place in Hawaii that you can be without a car comfortably is Honolulu.  Otherwise almost all people need and get a rental car to fully enjoy their vacation. 

Since they have a shuttle going around Waikoloa you could conceivably do it at the 4 Hilton Resorts on the Island of Hawaii but we have never done that.  Also, getting to and from the airport to the Waikoloa resorts is an expensive cab or Uber ride and if you are going to go to Costco, Target or Walmart to get inexpensive groceries it is another expensive round trip cab or Uber ride.  Taking a cab or Uber to the supermarket on the hill where the prices are more expensive than the big box stores is reasonably.  Otherwise you are relegated to taking the shuttle to the specialty supermarket in the Queens Shopping Plaza which has high pricing like whole foods before it was reborn.


----------



## Ken555

This is silly. There’s no way the majority of Hawaii visitors will enjoy their time without a rental car.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Tamaradarann

gdrj said:


> I did watch one of the press conferences or listen to one of the mayors radio interviews and I’m not sure the mayor has a clear vision of how to get where he wants to be.  I did hear him say they want people who are here for longer periods of time (2 weeks +) vs. shor t trips.  I did not hear him say anything about time share visitors NOT being welcome, though I may have missed it.  I took it more as Air BNB and VRBO etc as not being the guests they are striving for.
> 
> As far as reducing rental cars, from a traffic stand point that make sense, BUT tourist still need to get to resorts, so Vans/busses with multiple traveling parties Bringing guests helps social distancing how?  There are two different issues. COVID-19 and tourism saturation.  Hawaii created the tourism over population.They approved, hotels, timeshares AirBNB etc.
> 
> limiting rental cars will not encourage spending, it will encourage guests to not go out.



That is an interesting thought that the Air BNB and VRBO tourists are the ones they are trying to prohibit.  Well they have been trying to crack down on those before the virus since many of them evade the taxes.  Stiffening that enforcement might be good.  However, there are Hawaii residents as well as non-Hawaii residents that own those Air BNB and VRBO operations so they would be hurting the pocketbooks of some of the residents of Hawaii.  

I do agree that limiting the rental cars will encourage guests not to go out, and the only way it will increase spending is by tourists using more cabs, Uber, and Lyft.


----------



## csodjd

bnoble said:


> I see it a little differently. Limiting cars is about discouraging the visitors that they seem to be talking about wanting fewer of.
> 
> Limiting rental cars drives up the price of an individual car. If you are staying in a resort destination (one of the Hilton complexes, Ko Olina, etc.) you can probably do without a car and maybe book a day trip or two, and given the price of parking maybe you already were. But, if you are in an e.g. AirBnB/VRBO well, that just drives up the price of your overall vacation. Maybe some people think twice about going at that point.


I might be simplistic here, but the impression I got with respect to the desire to reduce rental cars wasn't about reducing the NUMBER of tourists, it was about reducing the IMPACT of tourists by reducing traffic and parking and congestion. Yes, a car is helpful. But if, for instance, they develop good effective shuttles between hotels and Lahaina, for instance, perhaps the congestion there can be significantly reduced by people coming for dinner or shopping or whatever by shuttle instead of their rental car. I don't think their plan is to leave people stranded. I think it is to replace the dependence on rental cars with friendlier alternatives.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

I think that many heavily tourist-impacted locales, not just Hawaii (e.g., Venice), will use this as an opportunity to modify or reconfigure tourism activities.  

Time will show how well the succeed, and what trade-offs they are willing to make.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I might be simplistic here, but the impression I got with respect to the desire to reduce rental cars wasn't about reducing the NUMBER of tourists, it was about reducing the IMPACT of tourists by reducing traffic and parking and congestion. Yes, a car is helpful. But if, for instance, they develop good effective shuttles between hotels and Lahaina, for instance, perhaps the congestion there can be significantly reduced by people coming for dinner or shopping or whatever by shuttle instead of their rental car. I don't think their plan is to leave people stranded. I think it is to replace the dependence on rental cars with friendlier alternatives.



That would be great but how would it be paid for?   Providing a free shuttle service costs money which Maui and Hawaii doesn't have any of after this virus has ruined their economy.  Honolulu has an excellent bus system which is usually very utilized.  However, before we left in late March buses were riding empty or with 1 or 2 people on it due to the virus.  Will people go back to buses in Honolulu like before?  We usually ride them all the time when we are there, however, we are skepical about riding them when we go back.


----------



## MOXJO7282

I'm hopeful but also believe that things will largely go back to normal at some point.  Not sure when though.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Well we have 34,600 HGVC points and 86,500 RCI points, and usually over 1,000,000 Hilton Honors Points.  We have never paid for nights on the 4 main Hawaiian Islands but have hopped over to Molokai and Lanai for a few nights in between.  We had also had built up probably a years worth of points from the previous year when we started doing this in 2009.
> 
> We mostly stay in Studios in Honolulu using HGVC points, but have booked RCI weeks in a Studios and 1 BRs on all 4 Hawaiian Islands.  As you know Studios are only 2200 points a week during   Platinum Season.  At times we have used the Hilton Honors Points for a few nights to get us to the next timeshare reservation.
> 
> However, recently we have been borrowing from the next year since as I have mentioned before that we now own a Leasehold Unit at the Wailana that we are currently renting.  It is right across the street from the Hilton Hawaiian Village so location wise it is the same as being in the HHV.  We had planned on moving in this fall until this coronavirus fiasco turned the plan into an unknown future.


I guess I could probably pull much of that off, and at least stay 2 - 2 1/2 months. But there may be an insurmountable obstacle that whenever I think about staying a long time I'm forgetting about. My dogs. Can't exactly show up at the Lagoon Tower with three dogs in tow.


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## NTP66

beachlynn said:


> Tell that to my credit card.  We spend a lot.


Same here. I don't go on vacation to keep the same mundane routine that I do at home, cooking my own meals, etc. I also disagree that timeshare owners and VRBO/AirBNB are anything alike, really. The latter are much more likely to spend far less on their overall vacation, IME.

I canceled our big trip for June, which gutted me, as we were bringing our family along so that my wife and I could renew our vows. The second a vaccine is available, I'll plan a return trip to Maui without hesitation.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I guess I could probably pull much of that off, and at least stay 2 - 2 1/2 months. But there may be an insurmountable obstacle that whenever I think about staying a long time I'm forgetting about. My dogs. Can't exactly show up at the Lagoon Tower with three dogs in tow.



Having animals is certainly a negative for travelling or more specifically traveling long term.  When we started travelling to hawaii for the winter we had a cat which our adult Son took care of at our house since he lived home.  However, a cat is easier than a dog.  If you have someone related or a good friend who loves your dogs and will take care of them when you are away that would work.  I say loves your dogs because watching after dogs for months has to be a love situation since it is quite a commitment.


----------



## Tamaradarann

NTP66 said:


> Same here. I don't go on vacation to keep the same mundane routine that I do at home, cooking my own meals, etc. I also disagree that timeshare owners and VRBO/AirBNB are anything alike, really. The latter are much more likely to spend far less on their overall vacation, IME.
> 
> I don't cook meals or clean up the kitchen, my husband does that.  We stay so long that we could not afford to spend money on restaurants for Breakfast, Lunch and Dinner everyday.  However, being in Honolulu is very different than being home so that our day is certainly NOT the same mundane routine.
> 
> I agree with you that Timeshare Owners and VRBO/Air BNB are not alike. My previous comment, restated below, gives some of my thoughts on VRBO/AirBNB's. Particularly now when Hotels will be desparate for tourists to stay in business, pay taxes and reemploy people as well as timehares that will be desparate for tourists to stay viable, pay taxes, and reemployee people.
> 
> "That is an interesting thought that the Air BNB and VRBO tourists are the ones they are trying to prohibit. Well they have been trying to crack down on those before the virus since many of them evade the taxes. Stiffening that enforcement might be good."


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Having animals is certainly a negative for travelling or more specifically traveling long term.  When we started travelling to hawaii for the winter we had a cat which our adult Son took care of at our house since he lived home.  However, a cat is easier than a dog.  If you have someone related or a good friend who loves your dogs and will take care of them when you are away that would work.  I say loves your dogs because watching after dogs for months has to be a love situation since it is quite a commitment.


Especially since we are picking up an 8wk old Golden Retriever on Wednesday.


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## critterchick

Tamaradarann said:


> Having animals is certainly a negative for travelling or more specifically traveling long term.  When we started travelling to hawaii for the winter we had a cat which our adult Son took care of at our house since he lived home.  However, a cat is easier than a dog.  If you have someone related or a good friend who loves your dogs and will take care of them when you are away that would work.  I say loves your dogs because watching after dogs for months has to be a love situation since it is quite a commitment.



We have managed to be away for up to a month (2 dogs and 5 cats at home) because our petsitter is a goddess.  She moves in for the duration, will sometimes take the dogs to her place overnight if she has something going on there and it's generally a seamless process. But we've had two cats have to be euthanized while we were gone, and that was horrible for her and for us. We're sending her to Kauai for a week once travel is relatively normal again. It was supposed to be in October but, with none of her clients travelling, she can't afford the incidentals (we're providing the lodging and airfare).


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## Tamaradarann

critterchick said:


> We have managed to be away for up to a month (2 dogs and 5 cats at home) because our petsitter is a goddess.  She moves in for the duration, will sometimes take the dogs to her place overnight if she has something going on there and it's generally a seamless process. But we've had two cats have to be euthanized while we were gone, and that was horrible for her and for us. We're sending her to Kauai for a week once travel is relatively normal again. It was supposed to be in October but, with none of her clients travelling, she can't afford the incidentals (we're providing the lodging and airfare).



Wow, 2 Dogs and 5 cats that you don't own for a month and had to euthanize 2 of the cats.  That is a nice thank you sending her to Kauai for a month with airfair and some cash to cover her incidentals.


----------



## csodjd

critterchick said:


> We have managed to be away for up to a month (2 dogs and 5 cats at home) because our petsitter is a goddess.  She moves in for the duration, will sometimes take the dogs to her place overnight if she has something going on there and it's generally a seamless process. But we've had two cats have to be euthanized while we were gone, and that was horrible for her and for us. We're sending her to Kauai for a week once travel is relatively normal again. It was supposed to be in October but, with none of her clients travelling, she can't afford the incidentals (we're providing the lodging and airfare).


I had a beloved dog (5 yo English Setter) collapse while I was in Yosemite with my wife and daughter. Will on a horse ride I had to give the okay to a surgeon to put him down. Not a fun trip to Yosemite. 

We too have a pet sitter. A wonderful sweat young college student. 3 dogs and a cat. We give her $70/day to stay at hour house and take care of them.


----------



## slip

I am going to post this here since it is nothing confirmed but this blog is by a tour business owner on Oahu that I have been following for quite a few years.  He also has a podcast.

This does have a timeline that does fit the vague talk by Governor Ige.

https://www.hawaiijeepandspecialtytours.com/post/pandemic-in-paradise


----------



## Yellowfin

This is why it is so complicated:









						Where stakeholders stand on pre-flight COVID testing
					

HONOLULU (KHON2) — Requiring COVID testing prior to boarding flights to Hawaii could help reopen safe travel for visitors and locals. But key hurdles are blocking the pre-test efforts. Always…




					www.khon2.com


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## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> This is why it is so complicated:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Where stakeholders stand on pre-flight COVID testing
> 
> 
> HONOLULU (KHON2) — Requiring COVID testing prior to boarding flights to Hawaii could help reopen safe travel for visitors and locals. But key hurdles are blocking the pre-test efforts. Always…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.khon2.com


The opinion of the AG's office aside, I see nothing there that's complicated. The article bounces around making it SEEM complicated. But it isn't necessary to make testing before boarding a flight a legal requirement or a requirement at all. It should be entirely voluntary. Nobody HAS to be tested. But, if you're not, you must quarantine upon arrival. That's a powerful incentive to choose to be tested. Hawaii offers you two opportunities to be tested and avoid quarantine. Before you fly over, and upon arrival. In the former, you control timing, who does it, and you KNOW your outcome before you step on the plane. It would be pretty stupid to not take that opportunity. But if you choose not to, you get a second chance when you arrive. There would be voluntary testing available at the airport. You must quarantine until the results are in. If you are positive, 14-days. If negative, your quarantine ends. And, of course, if you choose not to be tested at either opportunity, 14-days. 

That's not complex. It is entirely voluntary. It requires only modification to the public health orders, not the passage of any new laws. It doesn't require the airlines to do anything. But since the airlines have a strong economic incentive for people to feel safe going to Hawaii, they have every reason to help Hawaii carry out their system.


----------



## JanT

Interesting blog post.  I'm not sure why but I feel slightly offended at it's tone.  The nice thing about it is I've been to Hawaii - several times -and don't need to go back.  I'd love to and I don't mind being responsible, don't mind being tested, etc.  More than willing to do those things.  But, I do mind basically being told that tourists will eventually be allowed back but only if they're willing to spend a lot of money.  We've pumped our fair share of money into Hawaii when we go there and have done so willingly, not because we feel like our arm is being twisted to do so.   Hawaii may be off the table for us for a long time (or forever).  I don't know, maybe I just got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning.



slip said:


> I am going to post this here since it is nothing confirmed but this blog is by a tour business owner on Oahu that I have been following for quite a few years.  He also has a podcast.
> 
> This does have a timeline that does fit the vague talk by Governor Ige.
> 
> https://www.hawaiijeepandspecialtytours.com/post/pandemic-in-paradise


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## NTP66

I didn't care for the tone, either. That said, we spend plenty in Maui and will continue to do so. Just have to ignore comments like that.


----------



## slip

Yes, part of the blog post does echo some of the talk, I believe it was Maui’s Mayor was saying. I really don’t believe that is possible and I was more interested in the timeline. That sounds like the timeline I was thinking while listening to the Governors talks. We’ll see if it turns out to be close.


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## 1Kflyerguy

Thanks for sharing.  The timeline seems reasonable, but will see if this actually comes to pass.  I can see the appeal of changing the nature of tourism, but i wonder if they can really pull that off quickly...


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> The opinion of the AG's office aside, I see nothing there that's complicated. The article bounces around making it SEEM complicated. But it isn't necessary to make testing before boarding a flight a legal requirement or a requirement at all. It should be entirely voluntary. Nobody HAS to be tested. But, if you're not, you must quarantine upon arrival. That's a powerful incentive to choose to be tested. Hawaii offers you two opportunities to be tested and avoid quarantine. Before you fly over, and upon arrival. In the former, you control timing, who does it, and you KNOW your outcome before you step on the plane. It would be pretty stupid to not take that opportunity. But if you choose not to, you get a second chance when you arrive. There would be voluntary testing available at the airport. You must quarantine until the results are in. If you are positive, 14-days. If negative, your quarantine ends. And, of course, if you choose not to be tested at either opportunity, 14-days.
> 
> That's not complex. It is entirely voluntary. It requires only modification to the public health orders, not the passage of any new laws. It doesn't require the airlines to do anything. But since the airlines have a strong economic incentive for people to feel safe going to Hawaii, they have every reason to help Hawaii carry out their system.



I think you lay out an excellent plan and I would endorse it if I was the Governor.   If would certainly get me ready for our September trip to Honolulu.  

However, after reading your plan I read what the Governor, Attorney General, and Director of the Department of Health said and my husband and I are ready to scrap our September plans and start to focus on a possible mid November trip.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I think you lay out an excellent plan and I would endorse it if I was the Governor.   If would certainly get me ready for our September trip to Honolulu.
> 
> However, after reading your plan I read what the Governor, Attorney General, and Director of the Department of Health said and my husband and I are ready to scrap our September plans and start to focus on a possible mid November trip.


I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet. There's going to be a lot of pressure on government officials to be careful, but not paranoid. This entire crisis is now about 3 months old. September is still another 3+ months away. We all have a time distortion because it feels like this has been going on forever. But it's really "only" been 3 months. I can't imagine that if all the rest of, really, mostly of the world is back operating and allowing tourists in, that Hawaii will still be saying no given the enormous detrimental impact it has and will have on so many Hawaiians. Remember that the Federal unemployment bonus money ends at the end of July. At that point a lot of people will start getting rather desperate. Seems to me a Sept target date is being very conservative and allowing a lot of time, especially given that Hawaii has as little problem as any state in the US. 

My step-daughter is scheduled to get married there in November. Our only concern is the allowable size of a gathering. Not terribly concerned that we won't be able to go without quarantine.


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## DeniseM

I think that the primary event that has to come to pass is getting the equipment installed in the airports to monitor travelers as they arrive.  The state spokesperson said it will take a minimum of 2 months, but since the funding was just approved 10 days ago, that sounds like an "aspirational" statement.  

*Before the pandemic, I have never heard "aspirational" used this way but it seems to be a new pet word.  If you read between the lines, I think it refers to a goal that is unrealistic.  (I'm talking about the use of the word "aspirational" - not the equipment installation.)


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## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> I think that the primary event that has to come to pass is getting the equipment installed in the airports to monitor travelers as they arrive.  The state spokesperson said it will take a minimum of 2 months, but since the funding was just approved 10 days ago, that sounds like an "aspirational" statement.
> 
> *Before the pandemic, I have never heard "aspirational" used this way but it seems to be a new pet word.  If you read between the lines, I think it refers to a goal that is unrealistic.  (I'm talking about the use of the word "aspirational" - not the equipment installation.)


You may be correct, but they sure got that thermal imaging equipment operational at various airports quickly back in March. Heck, they can easily check an entire airplane's passengers one at a time with a modern forehead device before the first bags show up in the baggage claim area if they need to. So I hope that's not an excuse for delaying the process.

[Removed, because some people may take it as political.]


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## MOXJO7282

So how does an island like St Thomas open June 1st and Hawaii stays closed? I have to believe ST Thomas is as much or more vulnerable than Maui but they are ready to open to visitors.  If the trends continue I have to believe Hawaii will have to open back up in July or face pressures to do so if these other islands open up without consequences.


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## DeniseM

St. Thomas is not in the US and may have more risk tolerance.  Also - do 30K people per day land on St. Thomas?  (I really don't know.)


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## MOXJO7282

DeniseM said:


> St. Thomas is not in the US and may have more risk tolerance.  Also - do 30K people per day land on St. Thomas?  (I really don't know.)


Its a US territory with a less than stellar healthcare and smaller so couldn't have 30k but they're not waiting for a testing as is no other location.


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## DeniseM

I honestly didn't know it was a US Territory - thank you for clarifying.

*Now that I think about it, I did know this at one time, but I lost that brain cell.


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## Ken555

MOXJO7282 said:


> So how does an island like St Thomas open June 1st and Hawaii stays closed? I have to believe ST Thomas is as much or more vulnerable than Maui but they are ready to open to visitors. If the trends continue I have to believe Hawaii will have to open back up in July or face pressures to do so if these other islands open up without consequences.



This should be expected when we don’t have a national plan. Local government tolerances are different for many reasons.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ken555

csodjd said:


> I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet. There's going to be a lot of pressure on government officials to be careful, but not paranoid. This entire crisis is now about 3 months old. September is still another 3+ months away. We all have a time distortion because it feels like this has been going on forever. But it's really "only" been 3 months. I can't imagine that if all the rest of, really, mostly of the world is back operating and allowing tourists in, that Hawaii will still be saying no given the enormous detrimental impact it has and will have on so many Hawaiians. Remember that the Federal unemployment bonus money ends at the end of July. At that point a lot of people will start getting rather desperate. Seems to me a Sept target date is being very conservative and allowing a lot of time, especially given that Hawaii has as little problem as any state in the US.
> 
> My step-daughter is scheduled to get married there in November. Our only concern is the allowable size of a gathering. Not terribly concerned that we won't be able to go without quarantine.



We are so off topic... but since Denise hasn’t moved this yet I’ll respond. (@DeniseM?)

There’s a big difference between wanting to reopen and being able to do so safely. And if we have a second wave (which it seems most experts seem to anticipate) then Hawaii needs to be prepared for the eventual spread even with mitigation efforts like quarantine and pre-flight testing. I’m hopeful their efforts will contain any imported infection, but they must be prepared for it...both in terms of supplies, staff, and hospital beds but also that their visitors and residents understand this possible outcome.

It is distressing that so many believe financial concerns will push them to open. 

For myself, I’m still not planning on traveling anywhere anytime soon. I’m barely leaving home as it is, tho unlike many (it seems) on TUG I’m in an urban area and the risk is doubtless higher for me than others here.

I did just check WKORV availability for January as I would enjoy planning a trip then, and it is available, but I suspect that may still be too soon to travel (for me).


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## klpca

JanT said:


> Interesting blog post.  I'm not sure why but I feel slightly offended at it's tone.  The nice thing about it is I've been to Hawaii - several times -and don't need to go back.  I'd love to and I don't mind being responsible, don't mind being tested, etc.  More than willing to do those things.  But, I do mind basically being told that tourists will eventually be allowed back but only if they're willing to spend a lot of money.  We've pumped our fair share of money into Hawaii when we go there and have done so willingly, not because we feel like our arm is being twisted to do so.   Hawaii may be off the table for us for a long time (or forever).  I don't know, maybe I just got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning.


I totally agree with you. My family has been on the islands since forever (back to Hawaiian "royalty" on my paternal grandmothers side) and I have relatives there who are very active in the Hawaiian sovereignty movement, so I have heard many discussions over the years. I absolutely respect the culture and do my best to understand, but I will always be who I am, someone who was born and raised in California. I take after my mom's side of the family in coloring so I don't look Hawaiian. But because I look haole and sound haole (i.e. no pidgin), I have been treated as a haole tourist a few times. We have been given incorrect directions when asking for help, and have been challenged while hiking on public property. It's not me honestly - I try so hard to be polite and respectful but we have had the misfortune of running in to some rude folks while visiting. My dad who looks very Hawaiian even had a little run in of his own last time he visited family on the Big Island. He had told me that I was too sensitive before, but now believes me when I tell him that things have changed. 

I think that unless someone is in the tourism business, us visitors are seen simply as intruders. I will still visit to see family but articles like this are not isolated. They are giving me pause about being a tourist on the islands. I don't honestly think that I am the target of this post, but it sticks in my craw that I have to vacation in a certain way that is culturally appropriate and spend a certain amount of money in order to vacation? What if my entire plan is to snorkel, hike, and eat at home? If I want culture, I am just going to go to uncle's house, talk story, and sing Hawaiian songs while he plays his ukulele. Maybe I will go bring flowers to my family's grave sites. I don't want to feel guilty about the way that we choose to travel. We will never, and have never been, big tour bus folks. I always read a book or two on Hawaiian culture before each visit (I do this no matter which place we visit - I want to understand where people are coming from) but I am sure that I have fallen short of the "spend" that they want me to reach, so I guess that I am not welcome anymore? Who in the world would want to visit some place where they feel unwelcome? There's a big world out there to explore and I guess that we will plan to visit some different places for vacations.


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## MOXJO7282

I'm really not advocating for premature opening and I'm someone who likes to play it safe so I'm really just thinking out loud that if a island like STT thinks its OK to open then maybe Hawaii will follow. I had a trip planned for STT June 28th that I moved to Dec.  but I have alot invested in Maui so hope everything goes back to normal for the safety of the island inhabitants but for our future as well.  I really do think it will and maybe sooner than we think. Let's hope.


----------



## Ken555

MOXJO7282 said:


> I'm really not advocating for premature opening and I'm someone who likes to play it safe so I'm really just thinking out loud that if a island like STT thinks its OK to open then maybe Hawaii will follow. I had a trip planned for STT June 28th that I moved to Dec. but I have alot invested in Maui so hope everything goes back to normal for the safety of the island inhabitants but for our future as well. I really do think it will and maybe sooner than we think. Let's hope.



I absolutely agree that I hope it will be better sooner. Sadly, too many are overly optimistic (not just on TUG). I’d prefer more realistic estimates, honestly, rather than the “next month” type announcements we saw from the cruise lines and other hospitality companies. I lose faith in these companies when it’s clear they just don’t know what they’re doing and aren’t being honest or not educating themselves on a realistic outcome (this is also true for governments). This is off topic so please move it to a different thread.


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## DeniseM

> We are so off topic... but since Denise hasn’t moved this yet I’ll respond. (@DeniseM?)



This has become an all-purpose Hawaii/C-19 thread, so everything goes, as long as you take the high road and avoid the politics and soapbox.  Since there is so much random stuff, I actually prefer keeping it in one thread.

Also:  Just as Tuggers have a wide range of perspectives, so do people living in Hawaii, so please don't make this an "us vs them" thing.  I don't see how that can be helpful.

I doubt if Hawaii cares what other islands are doing - their top priority is keeping their own citizens safe.  YMMV


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## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> There’s a big difference between wanting to reopen and being able to do so safely. And if we have a second wave (which it seems most experts seem to anticipate) then Hawaii needs to be prepared for the eventual spread even with mitigation efforts like quarantine and pre-flight testing. I’m hopeful their efforts will contain any imported infection, but they must be prepared for it...both in terms of supplies, staff, and hospital beds but also that their visitors and residents understand this possible outcome.


This is true. However, they were completely unprepared for it back in Feb/Mar, had completely undetected infections coming onto the islands, and weathered the storm quite well. This time around they know a lot more about their enemy and the challenge it presents, they have tools available they didn't have before (like testing!), and they know what works for minimizing spread (masks, social distancing, washing hands, sanitizer, etc.). It seems to me that even if they were to open the flood gates June 1 and allow ANYONE in (not advocating that, just making a point), just as they were doing on March 15 (they didn't start shutting down business until about March 18), they would have less problems than they had in March and April if only because everyone knows more now. (I believe they initiated the 14-day quarantine on about March 22.)

So, now, if you add pre-flight testing so that the positives are removed from the flood of tourists coming in, you will have MUCH less infection arriving than you had arriving on March 15. Combined with the fact that there is no doubt the number coming will be dramatically reduced just due to fear (estimates are it will be several years before Hawaii has all of its tourists coming back), plus all the knowledge we all have today (asymptomatic spread, testing, benefits of masks and a 6' distance), the results would be way better than it was in March/April, and Hawaii was probably the best in the Country even back then.

All of that leads me to believe Hawaii is not giving itself enough credit, and is understating it's ability to handle the result of tourists/tourism. In hindsight, it appears they were quite well prepared for what came in the first wave before they even knew it was coming, and so this next wave cannot be as bad or as problematic and they are surely prepared for it.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> This is true. However, they were completely unprepared for it back in Feb/Mar, had completely undetected infections coming onto the islands, and weathered the storm quite well. This time around they know a lot more about their enemy and the challenge it presents, they have tools available they didn't have before (like testing!), and they know what works for minimizing spread (masks, social distancing, washing hands, sanitizer, etc.). It seems to me that even if they were to open the flood gates June 1 and allow ANYONE in (not advocating that, just making a point), just as they were doing on March 15 (they didn't start shutting down business until about March 18), they would have less problems than they had in March and April if only because everyone knows more now. (I believe they initiated the 14-day quarantine on about March 22.)
> 
> So, now, if you add pre-flight testing so that the positives are removed from the flood of tourists coming in, you will have MUCH less infection arriving than you had arriving on March 15. Combined with the fact that there is no doubt the number coming will be dramatically reduced just due to fear (estimates are it will be several years before Hawaii has all of its tourists coming back), plus all the knowledge we all have today (asymptomatic spread, testing, benefits of masks and a 6' distance), the results would be way better than it was in March/April, and Hawaii was probably the best in the Country even back then.
> 
> All of that leads me to believe Hawaii is not giving itself enough credit, and is understating it's ability to handle the result of tourists/tourism. In hindsight, it appears they were quite well prepared for what came in the first wave before they even knew it was coming, and so this next wave cannot be as bad or as problematic and they are surely prepared for it.



You are overly optimistic. Hopeful, but optimistic. Given everything that has happened in recent months I am naturally pessimistic. We should all be more pessimistic, and then rejoice when things get better. This optimism can get us all in trouble, if expectations continue to be set too high.


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## csodjd

klpca said:


> I totally agree with you. My family has been on the islands since forever (back to Hawaiian royalty on my paternal grandmothers side) and I have relatives there who are very active in the Hawaiian sovereignty movement, so I have heard many discussions over the years. I absolutely respect the culture and do my best to understand, but I will always be who I am, someone who was born and raised in California. I take after my mom's side of the family in coloring so I don't look Hawaiian. But because I look haole and sound haole (i.e. no pidgin), I have been treated as a haole tourist a few times. We have been given incorrect directions when asking for help, and have been challenged while hiking on public property. It's not me honestly - I try so hard to be polite and respectful but we have had the misfortune of running in to some rude folks while visiting. My dad who looks very Hawaiian even had a little run in of his own last time he visited family on the Big Island. He had told me that I was too sensitive before, but now believes me when I tell him that things have changed.
> 
> I think that unless someone is in the tourism business, us visitors are seen simply as intruders. I will still visit to see family but articles like this are not isolated. They are giving me pause about being a tourist on the islands. I don't honestly think that I am the target of this post, but it sticks in my craw that I have to vacation in a certain way that is culturally appropriate and spend a certain amount of money in order to vacation? What if my entire plan is to snorkel, hike, and eat at home? If I want culture, I am just going to go to uncle's house, talk story, and sing Hawaiian songs while he plays his ukulele. Maybe I will go bring flowers to my family's grave sites. I don't want to feel guilty about the way that we choose to travel. We will never, and have never been, big tour bus folks. I always read a book or two on Hawaiian culture before each visit (I do this no matter which place we visit - I want to understand where people are coming from) but I am sure that I have fallen short of the "spend" that they want me to reach, so I guess that I am not welcome anymore? Who in the world would want to visit some place where they feel unwelcome? There's a big world out there to explore and I guess that we will plan to visit some different places for vacations.


We have been fortunate I guess, but we've always had good relations with the Hawaiians/residents we've dealt with. We don't try and act like we are not tourists or like we're something we are not. We show respect, throw out the trash, and enjoy talking to locals to learn about their experiences, recommendations, etc. I've always found them polite, if we were. That's not to doubt what you've experienced, and maybe we're just to naive to realize we've been put down.


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> You are overly optimistic. Hopeful, but optimistic. Given everything that has happened in recent months I am naturally pessimistic. We should all be more pessimistic, and then rejoice when things get better. This optimism can get us all in trouble, if expectations continue to be set too high.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I'm not naturally pessimistic. Optimistic, but not dumb. I always leave myself a plan B, and make as much lemonade as I can out of every lemon. What else can you do? I can only control what I can control. No reason to get too angry over what I can't control.

I've booked two weeks in late October-early November. I think we'll be able to go. I know it will be different, though I don't know just how yet. But as long as I can play some golf, drink coffee on the balcony as the sun rises, and drink mai tais as it sets, how bad can it really be?


----------



## klpca

csodjd said:


> We have been fortunate I guess, but we've always had good relations with the Hawaiians/residents we've dealt with. We don't try and act like we are not tourists or like we're something we are not. We show respect, throw out the trash, and enjoy talking to locals to learn about their experiences, recommendations, etc. I've always found them polite, if we were. That's not to doubt what you've experienced, and maybe we're just to naive to realize we've been put down.


True. I totally know when we are getting the stink eye (you know, because my family does it too, lol). Btw, this has only happened in the past 5 years or so and to be truthful it's only been directed at us three times, and we've been visiting since the early 80's. But it was very surprising when it occurred. We travel all over the world and if you met my husband you would understand why we have good experiences everywhere that we visit - he's very social, fun to talk to, and genuinely relates well to everyone. He's a warm person and I have never met anyone who didn't like him. I'm pretty social myself but I am not in the same league as my husband. At this point in our travels, I would say that we have found this experience to be unique to Hawaii, and it's recent. We have adjusted. We live in San Diego and tourists definitely change everything about our local places in the summer. Luckily things go back to normal in the fall, unlike Hawaii which has a 365 day tourist cycle. Sharing your limited space on a daily basis wears you down. It will be interesting to see how things shake out on the islands with respect to tourism. If things double in cost in order to limit the number of visitors, we will just have to visit elsewhere because it's already an expensive trip as it is between airfare, rental cars, and lodging.


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## csodjd

Here is a discussion with some pertinent information. They point out that Hawaii has or will have the second highest unemployment rate in the country because of the ~250,000 people in the tourism industry, and they discuss how if all goes as expected, it will be 2025 before Hawaii returns to 2019 levels of tourism. Between the lines, that means opening for tourism in, say, September is only going to result in a small fraction of the normal tourist volume. I believe they estimate about 1 million tourists the remainder of the year - roughly what they get per month normally.









						WATCH ‘This is Now’: Scammers launch attacks on unemployment systems
					

Watch “This is Now” live from the HNN Digital Center weekdays on Hawaii News Now’s platforms online and on mobile.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


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## Yellowfin

It seems they may first open in July for travelers from Japan, New Zealand and Australia. 









						Lt. Gov. Josh Green hopes to reopen Hawaii’s tourism industry by July
					

After two days with no new coronavirus cases statewide, some people are anxious to restart the tourism industry.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


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## amy241

Yellowfin said:


> It seems they may first open in July for travelers from Japan, New Zealand and Australia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lt. Gov. Josh Green hopes to reopen Hawaii’s tourism industry by July
> 
> 
> After two days with no new coronavirus cases statewide, some people are anxious to restart the tourism industry.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com



I find it disappointing that they exclude their own countrymen.


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## Ken555

csodjd said:


> I'm not naturally pessimistic. Optimistic, but not dumb. I always leave myself a plan B, and make as much lemonade as I can out of every lemon. What else can you do? I can only control what I can control. No reason to get too angry over what I can't control.
> 
> I've booked two weeks in late October-early November. I think we'll be able to go. I know it will be different, though I don't know just how yet. But as long as I can play some golf, drink coffee on the balcony as the sun rises, and drink mai tais as it sets, how bad can it really be?



It may not seem it, but I’m the same as you. However, I see so many posts (here and elsewhere) of people *believing* the company/government timelines and then being crushed when it’s clear they were wrong. I’d rather see some realistic timelines that truly minimize risk of transmission, and I don’t see them yet. 

I’ve already missed a big trip to Australia, and am planning on canceling a big trip to Japan, and likely a shorter one to Europe in Nov. Based on all the pics, news and reports from/by the airlines, there’s absolutely no way I want to fly. I don’t trust any of the airlines to minimize risk, regardless of what they promise. And, those pics of recent TSA lines yesterday are just scary. I’m happy staying home right now and setting my expectations accordingly. Sure, if thing improve faster than I expect I will be thrilled to travel. In addition to already booked cruises for next year, not to mention FCCs I have for next year and another ~10 weeks or so of timeshares since I didn’t use many this year, I could probably travel for half of 2021 if it was safe (but no, I don’t expect to).


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> It may not seem it, but I’m the same as you. However, I see so many posts (here and elsewhere) of people *believing* the company/government timelines and then being crushed when it’s clear they were wrong. I’d rather see some realistic timelines that truly minimize risk of transmission, and I don’t see them yet.
> 
> I’ve already missed a big trip to Australia, and am planning on canceling a big trip to Japan, and likely a shorter one to Europe in Nov. Based on all the pics, news and reports from/by the airlines, there’s absolutely no way I want to fly. I don’t trust any of the airlines to minimize risk, regardless of what they promise. And, those pics of recent TSA lines yesterday are just scary. I’m happy staying home right now and setting my expectations accordingly. Sure, if thing improve faster than I expect I will be thrilled to travel. In addition to already booked cruises for next year, not to mention FCCs I have for next year and another ~10 weeks or so of timeshares since I didn’t use many this year, I could probably travel for half of 2021 if it was safe (but no, I don’t expect to).
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I'm heading to Pinehurst NC via Charlotte from LA in August for two golf tournaments. Still scheduled to go to England for a golf tournament in late September, but consider that a 50-50 at best. Haven't canceled the air yet though. However, flying in First, window seat, front row (still debating if front row or back row of first class is best). Not thrilled about a mask on the flight, but it is what it is. Canceling the Danube river cruise and week in Ireland though and rescheduling for June 2021. Plan to be in Oahu in late October, Maui in November, and both again in March/April. 

I feel like, at this time, we have a lot of information and while cannot entirely guarantee not becoming infected, it's largely up to me at this point because I know what needs to be done. I know to assume everyone has it, so don't shake hands. Don't stand 2 feet way from the person I'm talking to. Wipe things down. Wash hands. Avoid crowds. Avoid lines. Wear glasses. (That's one people don't think about.) I no longer think becoming infected is out of my control. If it happens it's most likely from my failure.


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## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> It seems they may first open in July for travelers from Japan, New Zealand and Australia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lt. Gov. Josh Green hopes to reopen Hawaii’s tourism industry by July
> 
> 
> After two days with no new coronavirus cases statewide, some people are anxious to restart the tourism industry.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com


Isn't that the same Lt. Gov. that the Governor has removed from the tourism committee or groups dealing with tourism? I don't have a finger on the pulse of Hawaii politics, but I get the sense that the Gov. and Lt. Gov. are often NOT on the same page.


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## Ken555

csodjd said:


> I feel like, at this time, we have a lot of information and while cannot entirely guarantee not becoming infected, it's largely up to me at this point because I know what needs to be done. I know to assume everyone has it, so don't shake hands. Don't stand 2 feet way from the person I'm talking to. Wipe things down. Wash hands. Avoid crowds. Avoid lines. Wear glasses. (That's one people don't think about.) I no longer think becoming infected is out of my control. If it happens it's most likely from my failure.



We have very different opinions re what can be done. What would you do if your flight is full? What if the TSA line is backed up and people aren’t keeping social distance? (And not two feet...even six feet is just the minimum we should adhere to, and when discussing this topic with experts they’re quick to say that this is just a recommendation and that greater distance is preferred). What if some people near you won’t wear masks? 

This is not in your control.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> We have very different opinions re what can be done. What would you do if your flight is full? What if the TSA line is backed up and people aren’t keeping social distance? (And not two feet...even six feet is just the minimum we should adhere to, and when discussing this topic with experts they’re quick to say that this is just a recommendation and that greater distance is preferred). What if some people near you won’t wear masks?
> 
> This is not in your control.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I think we're likely to see some changes in air travel going forward.  Specifically, greater demand for first class and additional seating options in coach that create greater distances.  

Frontier tried to create a surcharge for seating with distancing, and got slammed so hard they had to drop it.  IMHO - they just did it the wrong way.  Instead of creating is an option on any given flight, what they should have done is to make the entire coach section distanced seating on specified flights, and set the coach fare for that flight accordingly.  Close to the same outcome, but the optics are better. 

I expect there will be greater demand for first class seating.  I'm seeing this on some flights that I track.  Coach fares are way down, but FC fares haven't budged an iota.  If that holds up, we will likely see airlines expanding first class seating.  Or creating a new class of seating that has FC space but not FC amenities.  

I can see airlines installing partitions between each row of seats.


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## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> We have very different opinions re what can be done. What would you do if your flight is full? What if the TSA line is backed up and people aren’t keeping social distance? (And not two feet...even six feet is just the minimum we should adhere to, and when discussing this topic with experts they’re quick to say that this is just a recommendation and that greater distance is preferred). What if some people near you won’t wear masks?
> 
> This is not in your control.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Doubt it will be full, but if so, they'll all be behind me. That's why first, front row, window. My exposure is limited to one or two people, one to my left and one behind me. I have and use CLEAR so I don't wait in the TSA line. Masks are required on the flight. I think I can largely stay away from someone not wearing a mask. (However, if I have a mask and glasses, and wash/sanitize my hands, my risk is greatly reduced if not eliminated.) 

Latest info from CDC and others is that while COVID is very contagious, but not that easily spread. It takes more than a moment of contact. 

I spent many years treating AIDS patients in the late '80's and '90's. I was never worried about getting AIDS, because I knew what I was dealing with and could protect myself. What I I worried about was getting TB by having a seemingly healthy patient cough on me. That I worried about.


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## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> Doubt it will be full, but if so, they'll all be behind me. That's why first, front row, window. My exposure is limited to one or two people, one to my left and one behind me. I have and use CLEAR so I don't wait in the TSA line. Masks are required on the flight. I think I can largely stay away from someone not wearing a mask. (However, if I have a mask and glasses, and wash/sanitize my hands, my risk is greatly reduced if not eliminated.)


 You might want to consider last row of first class.  Because behind you will be the curtain between Coach and FC.  That's the seating that I'm emphasizing for my flights that haven't yet been cancelled.


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## Ken555

csodjd said:


> Doubt it will be full, but if so, they'll all be behind me. That's why first, front row, window. My exposure is limited to one or two people, one to my left and one behind me. I have and use CLEAR so I don't wait in the TSA line. Masks are required on the flight. I think I can largely stay away from someone not wearing a mask. (However, if I have a mask and glasses, and wash/sanitize my hands, my risk is greatly reduced if not eliminated.)
> 
> Latest info from CDC and others is that while COVID is very contagious, but not that easily spread. It takes more than a moment of contact.
> 
> I spent many years treating AIDS patients in the late '80's and '90's. I was never worried about getting AIDS, because I knew what I was dealing with and could protect myself. What I I worried about was getting TB by having a seemingly healthy patient cough on me. That I worried about.



Most of us here have pre check. Still, I’ve been in those lines where people are as rude as ever...

A friend flew from Miami to LA a few days ago and had a mask and a face shield (which I think may be better than glasses, unless you have goggles...and it sounds like you would know better than I). Still, he went into quarantine upon arrival for two weeks.

I would only fly soon if I had the entire row to myself and purchased the row in front and behind (or was in the first/last row). 

I don’t make plans based on the latest non peer reviewed reports. I’ll wait until there is consensus. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## gdrj

The Governor saying there is no timetable is not helpful for the State, the economy, or tourism.  There ought to be tentative dates so workers and employers can be planning for reopening, with a caveat of “subject to change”.

If the State truly has no timetable it doesn't speak well for their recovery or their preparedness for opening up the economy.  Training of staff, reopening and adjusting of facilities takes time. Review of supply chains and restocking of restaurants as well all take time.  Hawaii shouldnt just announce a week ahead of time they way they did with hair dressers.  If there is a detailed plan it will give comfort and assurances to employees as well as employers.  The longer the uncertainty the more jobs that wont comeback, bankruptcy, lack of financing and foreclosure on hotels will follow.


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## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> You might want to consider last row of first class.  Because behind you will be the curtain between Coach and FC.  That's the seating that I'm emphasizing for my flights that haven't yet been cancelled.


That was my internal debate. First row -- basically no exposure or contact with anyone getting on the plane. Last row -- nobody behind me to cough/sneeze my direction. I was reading tonight how because the seats are tall they are a fairly good barrier to droplets. Seems to me that's true if someone sneezes straight ahead or down, not so much up, though people don't really sneeze up, do they?


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## csodjd

gdrj said:


> The Governor saying there is no timetable is not helpful for the State, the economy, or tourism.  There ought to be tentative dates so workers and employers can be planning for reopening, with a caveat of “subject to change”.
> 
> If the State truly has no timetable it doesn't speak well for their recovery or their preparedness for opening up the economy.  Training of staff, reopening and adjusting of facilities takes time. Review of supply chains and restocking of restaurants as well all take time.  Hawaii shouldnt just announce a week ahead of time they way they did with hair dressers.  If there is a detailed plan it will give comfort and assurances to employees as well as employers.  The longer the uncertainty the more jobs that wont comeback, bankruptcy, lack of financing and foreclosure on hotels will follow.


I agree. A target date, a goal. Not stated as a certainty, but the date they are working toward. Setting goals is the key to most success. No different here. There's no sense of urgency if there's no date by which it ought to get done, and no accountability, even to oneself.


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## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> I would only fly soon if I had the entire row to myself and purchased the row in front and behind (or was in the first/last row).


Putting aside that obviously nobody is going to do that (they might as well charter a private plane), is the reason for being worried about the row in front of you a paranoia, or is there a good reason I can't think of? And same for your row across the aisle? What is the reasoning there?

I really do think we have to interject some sense of pragmatism and reality and not allow unfettered fear to control us. Reasonable is the target. If we assume that 10% of the entire US population is CURRENTLY infectious -- which is probably an outrageously high assumption, at least 10x reality, given the nationally declining rate of new infections -- that means 90% are not. More likely 99% are not. If we assume about 70% of those that ARE infected have symptoms, that means about 30% of 10%, or 3 in 100, may be traveling. More likely it is 30% of 1%, or 1 in every 300. If I have "close" contact to perhaps 2 or 3 people, and they are wearing a mask, I'd consider my risk to be near zero. Probably about the risk of dying in my car on the way to the airport. But even if the 2 or 3 people are not wearing a mask, its still very unlikely any of them are infectious. And, even in the quite remote chance I was infected, there's a 30% chance I'll never even know, and an 80+% chance I'll just have a bad flu.

This is not February. Today we have working knowledge. Testing. Reduced transmission from masks and social distancing. Awareness of symptoms. And a declining number of cases (nationally).

Yes, there is risk. But I stand by my view that I largely control that low risk at this point. If I allowed fear to regulate me, I'd never fly. That is a risk I have NO control over.


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## Ken555

csodjd said:


> Putting aside that obviously nobody is going to do that (they might as well charter a private plane), is the reason for being worried about the row in front of you a paranoia, or is there a good reason I can't think of?



I’ve had people in front stand and talk, etc. Don’t want that.



> And same for your row across the aisle? What is the reasoning there?



Nope, didn’t say that. Only one side.



> I really do think we have to interject some sense of pragmatism and reality and not allow unfettered fear to control us.[etc]



Unfettered fear is a different beast entirely.



> This is not February. Today we have working knowledge. Testing. Reduced transmission from masks and social distancing. Awareness of symptoms. And a declining number of cases (nationally).



Um...yeah, no. We may be aware and abide by social distancing and wearing masks, but not everyone does. We have a vocal minority on TUG that seem to advocate this by their statements, thank goodness this isn’t prevalent. But it does make the news. 



> Yes, there is risk. But I stand by my view that I largely control that low risk at this point. If I allowed fear to regulate me, I'd never fly. That is a risk I have NO control over.



It’s not an all or nothing proposition, and I certainly didn’t mean that there was...give me a little credit, eh? Bottom line you can’t control the factors you mention on a plane, and there are others that come into play as well which can cause inadvertent violation. But if you’re comfortable, go for it. I’m not there, and I won’t be until we have much more standardized regulations, trust in the travel industry (there’s no way I would trust an airline company for my health beyond operating the plane itself, nor a cruise line, etc), and significant progress toward containment.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## cman

Y'all, I'm just going to let Hawaii do what "they" think is what's best for them. Correct me if I'm wrong, but from where I sit, Hawaiians are better prepared to decide "their" fate than I am. Just sayin...They know what the unemployment rate is, they know the economic damage they'll likely suffer. They know. So, I guess what I'm saying, is that the reminders of the consequences comes off as a little condescending (you know if you need to hear this). Not sure what the sentiment is on the islands right now, but my guess is that "my" vacation is not a top priority. Neither is yours.


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## gdrj

cman said:


> Y'all, I'm just going to let Hawaii do what "they" think is what's best for them. Correct me if I'm wrong, but from where I sit, Hawaiians are better prepared to decide "their" fate than I am. Just sayin...They know what the unemployment rate is, they know the economic damage they'll likely suffer. They know. So, I guess what I'm saying, is that the reminders of the consequences comes off as a little condescending (you know if you need to hear this). Not sure what the sentiment is on the islands right now, but my guess is that "my" vacation is not a top priority. Neither is yours.



When there is no timetable, when Lt Gov is saying something different than Governor, when Governor announces 1 thing and Mayors are unaware and Governor has to clarify his announcement 24 hours later, when elected officials encouraged tourism growth and now want to reduce it, when there does not seem to be a realistic plan, when they say testing may be required BUT  tests are not readily available. I would say the elected officials are not prepared to decide their fate.  

The State has thus far relied on temporary Federal $ to help support its People.  Is my vacation a priority to them, absolutely not. However the longer they go without a strategy being communicated to their citizens and to businesses the longer the economic impact.  Vacations obviously impact tourism.  For Hawaii the lead time in planning is much longer. May people including myself have made adjustments to our plans and will be spending $$ elsewhere. Airlines, hotels, restaurants, car rentals, UBER, jewelry stores, clothing, gift shops, tours, grocery stores, ABC stores that all employ Hawaiians will suffer.  The businesses will not need as many employees.   The sooner they communicate a plan the quicker the economy restarts.


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## csodjd

gdrj said:


> Is my vacation a priority to them, absolutely not.


It should be though, because your dollars into their economy are important.


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## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> I’ve had people in front stand and talk, etc. Don’t want that.
> 
> Nope, didn’t say that. Only one side.
> 
> Unfettered fear is a different beast entirely.
> 
> Um...yeah, no. We may be aware and abide by social distancing and wearing masks, but not everyone does. We have a vocal minority on TUG that seem to advocate this by their statements, thank goodness this isn’t prevalent. But it does make the news.
> 
> It’s not an all or nothing proposition, and I certainly didn’t mean that there was...give me a little credit, eh? Bottom line you can’t control the factors you mention on a plane, and there are others that come into play as well which can cause inadvertent violation. But if you’re comfortable, go for it. I’m not there, and I won’t be until we have much more standardized regulations, trust in the travel industry (there’s no way I would trust an airline company for my health beyond operating the plane itself, nor a cruise line, etc), and significant progress toward containment.
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


There is plenty of room for different people to have different risk/benefit views, and different levels of fear or concern. I think you are entirely right to want to avoid travel or flying, because it makes you uncomfortable right now. I'm less uncomfortable. I feel I can adequately protect myself now and, in fact, will NOW probably be much safer on a plane than I was a year ago when I did NOTHING to avoid infection from others and anyone could have anything OTHER than COVID and spread it to me.


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## csodjd

cman said:


> Y'all, I'm just going to let Hawaii do what "they" think is what's best for them. Correct me if I'm wrong, but from where I sit, Hawaiians are better prepared to decide "their" fate than I am. Just sayin...They know what the unemployment rate is, they know the economic damage they'll likely suffer. They know. So, I guess what I'm saying, is that the reminders of the consequences comes off as a little condescending (you know if you need to hear this). Not sure what the sentiment is on the islands right now, but my guess is that "my" vacation is not a top priority. Neither is yours.


I get what you are saying, but trusting government to do what is best is, well, not always a good idea. Government is capable of remarkable failures of judgment at times.

I think there is a distinction to be made between "Hawaiians" and "Hawaiian government." The opinions and needs of the former should drive the latter, not the other way around. Sometimes governments forget who is the dog and who is the tail. Remember, OUR vacations keep about a quarter-million Hawaiians employed. I'll bet our vacations are a top priority to many of them! I think it is important for government officials to feel the need, the pressure, from those affected -- for the unemployed to openly express their need and desire to become employed as quickly as possible, and for the travelers to openly express that they WANT to come and are ready to do so when given the opportunity. That's what drives governments to act.


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## Yellowfin

I also wonder how many other people and businesses depend on the money spent by visitors even if they are not counted directly in the tourism industry.


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## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> I also wonder how many other people and businesses depend on the money spent by visitors even if they are not counted directly in the tourism industry.


Well, I did lose some money to a couple of local guys playing golf in "The Game" in Maui last year.  

That aside, I'm not sure the details are that important because the big picture isn't really debatable. Hawaii and a lot of its residents depend heavily or entirely on tourism dollars. They need to bring tourism back safely, but also without unnecessary delay.


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## slip

csodjd said:


> but also without unnecessary delay.



This thread is like most about the virus. People go back and forth but it all comes down to how you define the last piece of your statement above and in this instance it doesn’t matter. It’s up to Governor Ige. We can only wait and see what he decides.


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## Yellowfin

With the new CDC data showing that the fatality rate is actually around 0.2-0.3%, Hawaii may have a harder time to justify extending the measures for much longer. 





__





						New CDC data on COVID-19
					

MONTREAL, May 25, 2020 /CNW Telbec/ - The national American agency in charge of public health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC...




					markets.businessinsider.com


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## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> With the new CDC data showing that the fatality rate is actually around 0.2-0.3%, Hawaii may have a harder time to justify extending the measures for much longer.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New CDC data on COVID-19
> 
> 
> MONTREAL, May 25, 2020 /CNW Telbec/ - The national American agency in charge of public health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> markets.businessinsider.com


Yes, but to be fair to Hawaii, I think the issues is more about medical capacity than fatality rate. One way to be sure the fatality rate goes way up is to have more really sick people than you have beds and ventilators for.


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## Ken555

csodjd said:


> There is plenty of room for different people to have different risk/benefit views, and different levels of fear or concern. I think you are entirely right to want to avoid travel or flying, because it makes you uncomfortable right now. I'm less uncomfortable. I feel I can adequately protect myself now and, in fact, will NOW probably be much safer on a plane than I was a year ago when I did NOTHING to avoid infection from others and anyone could have anything OTHER than COVID and spread it to me.



Perhaps. For ~10 years when traveling I’ve been carrying disinfectant wipes and always wiping down the tray table, arm rests, headrest, seatbelt, screen and air vent. Not uncommonly, my neighbor would see me doing this and I would offer them one, too. I’ve done the same on trains. Many years ago I read a study that showed airplane tray tables were “disgusting”. 

Airlines don’t properly clean their planes. So, now that we have a pandemic suddenly we are going to trust them to do so? Perhaps. I think many businesses that only gave courtesy attention to cleaning (much more so to the marketing of their cleaning than the cleaning itself) will do better now out of necessity since so many of us will be watching much more closely. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## cybernaut

Unfortunately, there is a strong undercurrent here among locals that they are glad to see the tourist gone and they don't want them back. Also, they would like to keep short term rentals illegal. 

They feel that they have their island back and would like to see the rentals convert to long term housing. The state and local governments are playing to this group and are in no hurry resume tourism. They preach safety, but there are almost no remaining cases here. We are not even allowed to travel inter-island.









						Lee Cataluna: Focus on getting better rather than getting back
					

Some people are saying — carefully, as though bracing for blowback — that Hawaii is actually greatly improved with so few tourists here crowding every little corner of the islands and pushing their way around.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## lynne

cybernaut said:


> Unfortunately, there is a strong undercurrent here among locals that they are glad to see the tourist gone and they don't want them back. Also, they would like to keep short term rentals illegal.
> 
> They feel that they have their island back and would like to see the rentals convert to long term housing. The state and local governments are playing to this group and are in no hurry resume tourism. They preach safety, but there are almost no remaining cases here. We are not even allowed to travel inter-island.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lee Cataluna: Focus on getting better rather than getting back
> 
> 
> Some people are saying — carefully, as though bracing for blowback — that Hawaii is actually greatly improved with so few tourists here crowding every little corner of the islands and pushing their way around.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com


I am one of those locals who lives in a community where there are a number of illegal short term rentals.  These are very large homes with pools and in some instances tennis courts that cater to groups of 12 or more.  When visitors come into our neighborhood with 4 vehicles and have a party till you drop attitude, it makes living here intolerable.  The noise level and basic disregard for being in a neighborhood where people live here full time is not what we expected when we moved here.  

There are vacation rentals that are specifically in resort areas that are legal and it is spelled out in the association's cc&r's that vacation rentals are allowed with the proper licensing.    These rentals are set up for visitors and should be open again when tourism opens up again.  Even now, there are vacation rentals being habitated during the ban as non-essential so that can give you an idea of how some people feel about protecting the residents of the state during this time.

The majority of the people who are renting illegally, purchased these properties as second homes and do not live here.  They make quite a bit of income off these large homes and care for our neighborhood about as much as the large groups of people renting.  They are in it for the money.  I am not sad to see these rentals shut down for good.

I look forward to having visitors back but they should be in legal dwellings and not 'work around' the laws.  There are many ways to check if the vacation rental that someone wants to book is legal.


----------



## DeniseM

Folks - If you want this thread to stay open, please avoid the "soap boxing."


----------



## DeniseM

BTW:  I love all of the aspirational propositions in this thread for opening Hawaii to tourism, but my money's on Hawaii not opening until they have the monitoring equipment installed in the airports.  I know that's not what you want to hear - but it's the logical conclusion.  YMMV


----------



## slip

DeniseM said:


> BTW:  I love all of the aspirational propositions in this thread for opening Hawaii to tourism, but my money's on Hawaii not opening until they have the monitoring equipment installed in the airports.  I know that's not what you want to hear - but it's the logical conclusion.  YMMV



That’s certainly what it seems like. Hopefully, we will hear more as that approaches. It sounds like they are trying to make that happen in September but they aren’t committing yet.

I heard Mayor Caldwell say yesterday that he thought Oahu could open up to inter-island flights in early June but he didn’t want to speak for the other Mayors. That would be a good first hurdle and get some planes in the air again.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> That’s certainly what it seems like. Hopefully, we will hear more as that approaches. It sounds like they are trying to make that happen in September but they aren’t committing yet.
> 
> I heard Mayor Caldwell say yesterday that he thought Oahu could open up to inter-island flights in early June but he didn’t want to speak for the other Mayors. That would be a good first hurdle and get some planes in the air again.


As a Californian that just visits Hawaii, it's hard for me to understand any restrictions on travel between islands at this point. It baffles me a bit as to what they are looking for before allowing that inasmuch as there hasn't been a case anywhere in Hawaii in several days (about 4). Seems they could eliminate that quarantine on a moment's notice.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> BTW:  I love all of the aspirational propositions in this thread for opening Hawaii to tourism, but my money's on Hawaii not opening until they have the monitoring equipment installed in the airports.  I know that's not what you want to hear - but it's the logical conclusion.  YMMV


It's not so much any disagreement with that, along with pre-flight testing. It's more the lack of any communication from those in charge about when they hope to have that done, or that they are even working on it. 

It's pretty clear hotels, etc., will need at least 30, and as much as 60 days notice to be ready to open. If it will take 60 days to get the airport how they want it, it would not be a bad thing for anyone to say, this is what we're doing, here's the timeline we hope to move forward on, and we think we should be able to start seeing some tourism by X if nothing unexpected happens. If X were Sept 1, that's 90+ days, and it gives everyone, including hotels that need 60 days or so, a working date, even if it's not a date-certain.


----------



## DeniseM

Hmmm - 10 days ago the State Legislature voted to spend $37 million on airport testing and said it would take AT LEAST 2 months - that seems pretty clear to me.  At this point in time, it seems like it would be premature to announce a date, since I doubt if the equipment has even landed on island yet.  YMMV


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> As a Californian that just visits Hawaii, it's hard for me to understand any restrictions on travel between islands at this point. It baffles me a bit as to what they are looking for before allowing that inasmuch as there hasn't been a case anywhere in Hawaii in several days (about 4). Seems they could eliminate that quarantine on a moment's notice.



People can argue that all they want but it won’t change that we have to wait for the Governor to lift the restrictions. they have vaguely mentioned July so this statement yesterday by the Mayor does make it seem that things are changing and fairly quickly. Sounds like I may be able to get a haircut this weekend if I can find an opening.


----------



## DeniseM

A change in topic, but interesting:








						Promoter, alcohol vendor under investigation after large, illegal beach parties broken up on Oahu
					

The Honolulu Liquor Commission and law enforcement agencies are investigating two businesses that may have organized and profited from massive parties that violated COVID-19 emergency rules, liquor, and permitting laws, over Memorial Day weekend at Waimea Bay Beach Park and Kaena Point State Park.




					www.staradvertiser.com
				




Cut to the chase:  The "promoter and vendor" were not licensed to sell alcohol and had no event permit, and they were *military personnel, as were many of the participants.  I suspect they are in trouble with both Hawaii and the military.  OUCH!

*They used their Schofield barracks address as ther LLC business address! 

*IMNSHO - this kind of behavior is why Hawaii is taking it slow.

*It will be interesting to see if any new C-19 cases come out of these beach parties.


----------



## Yellowfin

It is unclear to me how testing can be accomplished upon landing without creating huge crowds on the airport. To me it makes more sense to demand testing 2-3 days before departure and only ask those that do not have a valid certificate to be tested in Hawaii.


----------



## slip

Yellowfin said:


> It is unclear to me how testing can be accomplished upon landing without creating huge crowds on the airport. To me it makes more sense to demand testing 2-3 days before departure and only ask those that do not have a valid certificate to be tested in Hawaii.



I believe I heard that to be a part of the plan but still in a non-committal way.


----------



## DeniseM

> It is unclear to me how testing can be accomplished upon landing without creating huge crowds on the airport.


Per the previously posted article - the sophisticated scanners will be at each gate and they will automatically scan you as you walk through the gate, so there should be no more line than usual.



> To me it makes more sense to demand testing 2-3 days before departure and only ask those that do not have a valid certificate to be tested in Hawaii.


Per the previously posted article - Hawaii is already pursueing this, but how do you "demand," testing before departure when you have people coming from all over the world.  There has to be someone in authority at the other end who agrees to it, pays for it, implements it, and monitors it.


----------



## tshd

csodjd said:


> There is plenty of room for different people to have different risk/benefit views, and different levels of fear or concern. I think you are entirely right to want to avoid travel or flying, because it makes you uncomfortable right now. I'm less uncomfortable. I feel I can adequately protect myself now and, in fact, will NOW probably be much safer on a plane than I was a year ago when I did NOTHING to avoid infection from others and anyone could have anything OTHER than COVID and spread it to me.


It would make me chuckle to know you live in OC and that Ken is in LA


----------



## csodjd

tshd said:


> It would make me chuckle to know you live in OC and that Ken is in LA


Nope, not OC. On the northern border of LA County. An hour drive from OC without traffic, about 2.5 hr most of the time.


----------



## Ken555

tshd said:


> It would make me chuckle to know you live in OC and that Ken is in LA



Seriously off topic... but this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. And OC isn’t what you think it is any longer... 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ken555

csodjd said:


> Nope, not OC. On the northern border of LA County.



Ha! In that case, we are likely (almost) neighbors. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> Per the previously posted article - the sophisticated scanners will be at each gate and they will automatically scan you as you walk through the gate, so there should be no more line than usual.
> 
> 
> Per the previously posted article - Hawaii is already pursueing this, but how do you "demand," testing before departure when you have people coming from all over the world.  There has to be someone in authority at the other end who agrees to it, pays for it, implements it, and monitors it.


You don't really have to "demand" it. You just make it the ticket to avoiding quarantine. Granted there could be enforcement problems as the number of tourists increases, but that's still the answer. Come to Hawaii with proof of a negative test, proceed to enjoy your vacation. Come without it, and either get tested at the airport, or be placed in quarantine.


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## 1Kflyerguy

DeniseM said:


> Per the previously posted article - the sophisticated scanners will be at each gate and they will automatically scan you as you walk through the gate, so there should be no more line than usual.
> 
> 
> Per the previously posted article - Hawaii is already pursueing this, but how do you "demand," testing before departure when you have people coming from all over the world.  There has to be someone in authority at the other end who agrees to it, pays for it, implements it, and monitors it.



Agreed ! Its much easier to control things in your own state..  One of the articles i read mentioned d that Hawaii wanted the testing done in advance, with the result transmitted electronically to the airline.  That sound great,  but i don't even know where i would go for that kind of testing.  My country offers the testing for free to residents, but i do not see "wanting to vacation in Hawaii" as one of the eligibility criteria .....  The private lab i use for most of my routine medical lab work does not covid testing,  instead they refer you to free service....

Before testing in advance works, they need the infrastructure to actually do that..


----------



## dyi27308

In my opinion, the overseeing agency would have to be at the Federal Level.  TSA for domestic travel and Customs and Border patrol for international. Something similar to TSA precheck or Global entry. Just me 2 cents


----------



## DeniseM

> You don't really have to "demand" it. You just make it the ticket to avoiding quarantine. Granted there could be enforcement problems as the number of tourists increases, but that's still the answer. Come to Hawaii with proof of a negative test, proceed to enjoy your vacation. Come without it, and either get tested at the airport, or be placed in quarantine.



On one hand, some posters in this forum are requesting a quick open for Hawaii, but then they are proposing solutions which are not doable at this time.  You can't have it both ways.


----------



## tshd

csodjd said:


> As a Californian that just visits Hawaii, it's hard for me to understand any restrictions on travel between islands at this point. It baffles me a bit as to what they are looking for before allowing that inasmuch as there hasn't been a case anywhere in Hawaii in several days (about 4). Seems they could eliminate that quarantine on a moment's notice.


I'm thinking that an issue with allowing inter-island travel has somewhat to do with the logistics of tracking people.  What if someone flies from the mainland non-stop to Maui, stays overnight and flies out the following day to Lihue via HNL.  Will there be the manpower to check every passenger arriving on an inter-island flight to verify how long they've been in the state?  How would someone prove this? What if the person flying in from the mainland lives on Kauai and is just trying to avoid the quarantine? Sadly there are folks who will go to lengths to avoid rules and those folks make things harder on everyone else.


Ken555 said:


> Seriously off topic... but this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. And OC isn’t what you think it is any longer...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Yeah sorry abou


Ken555 said:


> Seriously off topic... but this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. And OC isn’t what you think it is any longer...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Yeah, sorry about that; it went that direction with the discussion of flying tolerance


----------



## jabberwocky

DeniseM said:


> Per the previously posted article - the sophisticated scanners will be at each gate and they will automatically scan you as you walk through the gate, so there should be no more line than usual.



Anyone who has entered Hong Kong over the past several years has gone through something similar.  Temperature checks are standard both at the airport and land border crossings.


----------



## Ken555

jabberwocky said:


> Anyone who has entered Hong Kong over the past several years has gone through something similar. Temperature checks are standard both at the airport and land border crossings.



Not when I flew into HK. No checks at all.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## cman

jabberwocky said:


> Anyone who has entered Hong Kong over the past several years has gone through something similar.  Temperature checks are standard both at the airport and land border crossings.


Problem with the scanners it that they only detect those that are already symptomatic, i.e. contagious. They may offer some element of protection, but it's nothing in comparison to testing. Hawaii just doesn't have the testing capacity that they need in order to safely open up. No matter how you slice it, all roads lead through testing.


----------



## jabberwocky

Ken555 said:


> Not when I flew into HK. No checks at all.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



You may not have seen them - but they are there


----------



## jabberwocky

cman said:


> Problem with the scanners it that they only detect those that are already symptomatic, i.e. contagious. They may offer some element of protection, but it's nothing in comparison to testing. Hawaii just doesn't have the testing capacity that they need in order to safely open up. No matter how you slice it, all roads lead through testing.



I realize it's not settled as to what stage a person becomes contagious.  But it's not guaranteed that you would test postive if you are asymptomatic either.  Testing, temperature checks, contact tracing apps and even just asking questions are simply screening devices.  Temperature checks can be done on a massive scale, are not intrusive and can be implemented relatively quickly and inexpensively.  

While it may make us feel good, testing everyone will not be feasible long run and doesn't make sense for travelers coming from low risk areas (which I would note most of the US mainland is not at this point).


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> You don't really have to "demand" it. You just make it the ticket to avoiding quarantine. Granted there could be enforcement problems as the number of tourists increases, but that's still the answer. Come to Hawaii with proof of a negative test, proceed to enjoy your vacation. Come without it, and either get tested at the airport, or be placed in quarantine.


Hawaii does not have the ability to ban travel to the state.  That would be interference in interstate commerce.  Like every other state, they do have power to regulate the behavior of people once they enter the state, including quarantine.  So when travelers arrive, what they can do is decide whom they can allow to enter without quarantine, and who needs to quarantine. Any testing/scanning program will be built around that. 

If were in their situation, I think I would be looking to identify testing entities whose results are considered acceptable.  I would also be thinking through some protocols.  Is it an virus test or antibody test, and how would my response differ?  How recent does the test have to be - and that will likely be different if it's an antibody or a virus presence test.  What's the probability that it might be a false negative or positive, and under what circumstances should multiple test results be required to address the false postive/negative scenarios?

These are not easy questions and will require some time to set up and vet.  But since Hawaii has elected to control COVID by isolation and quarantine techniques, those are critical questions to answer.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

jabberwocky said:


> You may not have seen them - but they are there



I don't doubt that!

I definitely remember very visual checks in Hong Kong and Singapore during previous outbreaks like SARs and bird flu.


----------



## Tucsonadventurer

The governor wants to open by July for Japan, Australia and New Zealand as they are lowest in cases.


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## Ken555

jabberwocky said:


> You may not have seen them - but they are there



Perhaps. Just watched a video about this, but I certainly didn’t see anything.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Ralph Sir Edward

I hate to be a spoilsport, but has anyone considered the crowds waiting for flights in airports?


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## Yellowfin

DeniseM said:


> Per the previously posted article - the sophisticated scanners will be at each gate and they will automatically scan you as you walk through the gate, so there should be no more line than usual.


 I must have missed that. I think a scanner can only check the temperature (that can be easily lowered with Advil) not whether a person is Covid-19 positive or not. The only way to determine it with a reasonable degree of certainty (70-80%?) is through a test and this can take a lot of time. 
This is an article about the accuracy of the tests








						Questions about COVID-19 test accuracy raised across the testing spectrum
					

Diagnostic tests are no longer in short supply, but questions about their accuracy are growing.




					www.nbcnews.com


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## DeniseM

> The governor wants to open by July for Japan, Australia and New Zealand as they are lowest in cases.


Do you have a citation for that?


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## DeniseM

> I must have missed that. I think a scanner can only check the temperature (that can be easily lowered with Advil) not whether a person is Covid-19 positive or not. The only way to determine it with a reasonable degree of certainty (70-80%?) is through a test and this can take a lot of time.
> This is an article about the accuracy of the tests


Of course, but the current state plan is the scanners at every gate. There may be details out there about them, but I haven't seen them.  I know it's some kind of imaging system.


----------



## Yellowfin

DeniseM said:


> Do you have a citation for that?











						Hawaii Reopening To Tourists Targeted For July
					

Lt. Gov. Josh Green says he hopes to reopen the state’s tourism industry by July. That would include having people tested for the virus beforehand.




					www.traveloffpath.com


----------



## Yellowfin

DeniseM said:


> Of course, but the current state plan is the scanners at every gate. There may be details out there about them, but I haven't seen them.  I know it's some kind of imaging system.





			https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/05/11/thermal-scanners-are-latest-technology-being-deployed-detect-coronavirus-they-dont-really-work/


----------



## DeniseM

OK.... but is that what Hawaii is using?


----------



## Yellowfin

DeniseM said:


> OK.... but is that what Hawaii is using?


there is no scanner I am aware of that detects COVID. You need to swab someone deep his nose and process the sample. This takes a long time (not to mention decontamination after each tested person) and is not proper for an airport where you have a constant flow of people.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> On one hand, some posters in this forum are requesting a quick open for Hawaii, but then they are proposing solutions which are not doable at this time.  You can't have it both ways.


Not sure if you're directing that swipe at me or not, but if so, it's badly misplaced. The only thing I've advocating for the government to do is lay out a play with a target timeline. That timeline would account for what is and is not "doable." And YOUR opinion that something isn't "doable" doesn't make it so. Where there is a will there is often a way, especially when there is money to be made. Perhaps you don't think so, but I believe in 3 months they can get a lot done, and a lot can change, if leadership is capable and up to the task.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> there is no scanner I am aware of that detects COVID. You need to swab someone deep his nose and process the sample. This takes a long time (not to mention decontamination after each tested person) and is not proper for an airport where you have a constant flow of people.


It's certainly not ideal in an airport. But if people know they need a test within 72 hours of departure, that's a different thing all together. Moreover, if the issues/problems with the Abbott ID NOW rapid test are resolved -- which is likely in my opinion -- you'll have a test that produces a complete result in 15 min or less. Abbott says, "We're currently manufacturing 50,000 tests per day, plan to increase ID NOW manufacturing capacity to 2 million tests a month by June and are working to expand beyond that." 









						Abbott Releases Interim Clinical Study Data on ID NOW COVID-19 Rapid Test Showing Strong Agreement to Lab-Based Molecular PCR Tests
					

Abbott (NYSE: ABT) announced today an interim analysis of an ongoing multi-site clinical study in urgent care clinics that indicates its ID NOW COVID-19 rapid test is showing strong agreement to...




					abbott.mediaroom.com
				












						Demand Surges For Abbott Labs Rapid Coronavirus Test As New Data Support Accuracy
					

Demand for Abbott Laboratories rapid test for Covid-19 continues to surge while the U.S. Food and Drug Administration reviews a small number of false negative reports and more data comes out to support the diagnostic’s accuracy.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Hawaii does not have the ability to ban travel to the state.  That would be interference in interstate commerce.  Like every other state, they do have power to regulate the behavior of people once they enter the state, including quarantine.  So when travelers arrive, what they can do is decide whom they can allow to enter without quarantine, and who needs to quarantine. Any testing/scanning program will be built around that.
> 
> If were in their situation, I think I would be looking to identify testing entities whose results are considered acceptable.  I would also be thinking through some protocols.  Is it an virus test or antibody test, and how would my response differ?  How recent does the test have to be - and that will likely be different if it's an antibody or a virus presence test.  What's the probability that it might be a false negative or positive, and under what circumstances should multiple test results be required to address the false postive/negative scenarios?
> 
> These are not easy questions and will require some time to set up and vet.  But since Hawaii has elected to control COVID by isolation and quarantine techniques, those are critical questions to answer.


It's not an interstate commerce issue. It's actually the Privileges and Immunities Clause. But the point is correct. 

Antibody test has no relevance at this point and isn't worth discussing. The only test that matters is for virus.


----------



## DeniseM

> Perhaps you don't think so, but I believe in 3 months they can get a lot done, and a lot can change, if leadership is capable and up to the task.


  I agree - I thought from you other posts that you wanted them to open much earlier, like this summer.

RE:  Timeline - the Govt. spokesman said that the earliest they can have the equipment installed is 2 mos.  There's your preliminary timeline.  Since they may not even have the equpment yet, publishing a detailed timeline now, would be premature, but once they get started and see how the installation goes, I'm confident that they will release more info to the public.  YMMV


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> It is unclear to me how testing can be accomplished upon landing without creating huge crowds on the airport. To me it makes more sense to demand testing 2-3 days before departure and only ask those that do not have a valid certificate to be tested in Hawaii.


No doubt, if the only testing were upon arrival, that would be a challenge. But I believe the suggestion I read (Lt. Gov. I believe) was that people could choose, get tested within 3 days before leaving, or wait at the airport for up to 12 hours to get tested upon arrival. Or quarantine. I suspect few would opt for the latter two. Not a lot of upsides.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> Hmmm - 10 days ago the State Legislature voted to spend $37 million on airport testing and said it would take AT LEAST 2 months - that seems pretty clear to me.  At this point in time, it seems like it would be premature to announce a date, since I doubt if the equipment has even landed on island yet.  YMMV


Sure, but "at least 2 months" from when? That certainly covers and largely rules out June and July. No surprise there. But does that suggest that they COULD be ready as early as August if they act promptly? The point is simply that it's not clear, based on public statements, what their timeline is. And statements like that suggest that if they move along with a sense of urgency, they can be ready sooner (2-3 months) rather than later.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> I agree - I thought from you other posts that you wanted them to open much earlier, like this summer.
> 
> RE:  Timeline - the Govt. spokesman said that the earliest they can have the equipment installed is 2 mos.  There's your preliminary timeline.  Since they may not even have the equpment yet, publishing a detailed timeline now, would be premature, but once they get started and see how the installation goes, I'm confident that they will release more info to the public.  YMMV


I'd love for them to be able to open this summer, but that seems a bridge too far with respect to tourism and people coming from outside Hawaii. I've never said I EXPECTED that they'd be open this summer. I've thought at all times about Sept. 1 is a realistic goal, possibly August (that was before they said they wanted thermal scanners). The infrastructure for the paperwork, procedures, quarantine set up, etc., takes some time. But, again, assuming it takes about 60 days for the hotels to be ready, it would be nice if they give a 60-day heads up.

I don't personally put a lot of faith in the temperature scanners. If you do actual testing and people that test positive don't come the scanners will pick up mostly people with colds and other non-COVID causes of fever. Lots of false positives there. Testing is the key. Having a fever doesn't mean you have COVID. Not having a fever also doesn't mean you don't have COVID.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Seems like the Lt Governor is more open to opening up travel than the Governor:









						Lt. Gov. Green says Hawaii slow to reopen parts of economy
					

With the flattest COVID-19 curve in the nation, Lt. Gov. Josh Green said Wednesday that Hawaii should have reopened interisland travel and limited business activity “10 days ago.”




					www.staradvertiser.com
				




Personally i am probably in line with the Lt. Gov on this.. But then that easy for me to say sitting in the safety of my home office..


----------



## lynne

Southwest Air will be resuming flights in July:









						Southwest Hawaii Stiffens Competition: 11 New Daily Flights Exposed
					

Lastest news on Southwest schedules and fares. Some routes continue to have great deals for summer. Find out more in today's post.



					beatofhawaii.com


----------



## slip

lynne said:


> Southwest Air will be resuming flights in July:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Southwest Hawaii Stiffens Competition: 11 New Daily Flights Exposed
> 
> 
> Lastest news on Southwest schedules and fares. Some routes continue to have great deals for summer. Find out more in today's post.
> 
> 
> 
> beatofhawaii.com



I just got that email too.


----------



## gdrj

Governor said today that he is extending 14 day quarantine past June 30.  No specifics have been released. https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...s-outline-latest-steps-reopen-hawaiis-economy

He is single handedly destroying the States economy.  I cant see, based on the available information, why this decision is being made, and there is no timetable on opening. 

To be clear I am a proponent of social distancing, wearing masks, etc., but at some point you have to stop hiding under the bed.


----------



## luv_maui

I got optimistic after seeing Southwest‘s supposedly resumption’s of flights in July.  But now with quarantine to be extended, I wonder if Southwest will now back off once the extension dates are known.


----------



## amy241

I find the comments to this article are more interesting than the article itself. A number of people are very upset that Hawaii would open up to other countries ahead of US states which it is a part of:









						As Desperation Ensues, Hawaiian Airlines Speaks on Restarting Tourism Now
					

Hawaii-bound travelers for later in 2020 and beyond increasingly frustrated and in need of answers.



					beatofhawaii.com


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> Assuming...
> 
> And yet they don’t define the “new normal”.
> 
> More importantly, it seems they are aware that
> 
> *So I hope they really are prepared for this.*
> 
> It’s still way too early to know how they really will implement tourist visits.
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I'm curious on the view of an admitted pessimist... 

Keeping in mind that we'll no doubt have: 

some kind of testing
social distancing
face masks 
hand washing
hand and facility sanitizing
no buffets and other risky serving
reduced restaurant capacities and safety protocols
limited groups/crowds, and, finally,
perhaps only 15-20% the number of tourists that were coming in February and early March
what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?

There is a complete loss of perspective by so many it shocks me. And I'm not cavalier at all. But, really, with 30,000 tourists per DAY coming in from all over the world in February and into March, with no testing at all, no extra efforts at sanitation or hand washing, no contact tracing, and no mitigation efforts whatsoever, not even a clue there was a contagious disease that spreads without symptoms, the entire state of Hawaii had fewer than 700 cases in 3 months, and only 17 fatalities. Again, for perspective, what was the reduction in auto fatalities during the shutdown? (https://hidot.hawaii.gov/highways/safe-communites/ There were 17 in Jan-Feb. April 4. Don't have May yet. It may be that COVID saved as many lives as it took.) 

If I was betting the OVER/UNDER on number of cases in October - December, I'd put the number at perhaps 300 and I'd take the under.


----------



## Kapolei

csodjd said:


> I'm curious on the view of an admitted pessimist...
> 
> Keeping in mind that we'll no doubt have:
> 
> some kind of testing
> social distancing
> face masks
> hand washing
> hand and facility sanitizing
> no buffets and other risky serving
> reduced restaurant capacities and safety protocols
> limited groups/crowds, and, finally,
> perhaps only 15-20% the number of tourists that were coming in February and early March
> what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?
> 
> There is a complete loss of perspective by so many it shocks me. And I'm not cavalier at all. But, really, with 30,000 tourists per DAY coming in from all over the world in February and into March, with no testing at all, no extra efforts at sanitation or hand washing, no contact tracing, and no mitigation efforts whatsoever, not even a clue there was a contagious disease that spreads without symptoms, the entire state of Hawaii had fewer than 700 cases in 3 months, and only 17 fatalities. Again, for perspective, what was the reduction in auto fatalities during the shutdown? (https://hidot.hawaii.gov/highways/safe-communites/ There were 17 in Jan-Feb. April 4. Don't have May yet. It may be that COVID saved as many lives as it took.)
> 
> If I was betting the OVER/UNDER on number of cases in October - December, I'd put the number at perhaps 300 and I'd take the under.



There is virtually no virus right now.  I think it is possible that the actual number is zero on Kauai.  There is also no rioting or social strife.  Hawaii is a paradise right now.  If residents can tighten their belts and weather the financial storm, Hawaii could be a very highly prized destination —- a gold nugget.  I think there are solid reasons to maintain this status even at a high price.  And if it is hard to get here, people will want it even more.


----------



## amycurl

Re: temperature checks. Dr. Ohl, the infectious disease specialist at Wake Forest University, referred to this method of screening for COVID as “perhaps providing some mental health benefit.” In other words, installing these would be very expensive public health theater.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Yellowfin

News about the pilot project to allow Japanese visitors first. I'd be curious to know if the hotels are thrilled about the idea  to reopen but have a 10-15% occupancy, they may still bleed money. The same for other businesses. I am sure those that own timeshares in Hawaii are not going to be thrilled about this. So you have paid maintenance fees (and local taxes) for years and you are told that someone from Japan will be allowed but not you.









						Hawaii explores ‘travel bubble’ with Japan amid tourism collapse
					

A pilot “travel bubble” with Japan that allows for relaxed travel restrictions between the two destinations might be a way for Hawaii tourism to start coming back from the 99.5% plunge that it took in April.




					www.staradvertiser.com
				












						Proposed pilot travel program between Japan, Hawaii could be quarantine-free
					

The 14-day quarantine rule is not exactly welcoming tourists to our islands, but a proposed pilot program may change that. When and how does Hawaii re-open its tourism industry? It’s an issue…




					www.khon2.com
				





It seems that the 14 day quarantine will be extended beyond June. Probably Denise is right, the islands will not reopen before September-October. 









						Hawaii governor to extend traveler quarantine past June
					

HONOLULU (AP) — Hawaii Gov. David Ige on Thursday said he would extend the state’s 14-day quarantine requirement for travelers arriving in the state beyond June 30.




					www.mercurynews.com


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I'm curious on the view of an admitted pessimist...
> 
> Keeping in mind that we'll no doubt have:
> 
> some kind of testing
> social distancing
> face masks
> hand washing
> hand and facility sanitizing
> no buffets and other risky serving
> reduced restaurant capacities and safety protocols
> limited groups/crowds, and, finally,
> perhaps only 15-20% the number of tourists that were coming in February and early March
> what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?
> 
> There is a complete loss of perspective by so many it shocks me. And I'm not cavalier at all. But, really, with 30,000 tourists per DAY coming in from all over the world in February and into March, with no testing at all, no extra efforts at sanitation or hand washing, no contact tracing, and no mitigation efforts whatsoever, not even a clue there was a contagious disease that spreads without symptoms, the entire state of Hawaii had fewer than 700 cases in 3 months, and only 17 fatalities. Again, for perspective, what was the reduction in auto fatalities during the shutdown? (https://hidot.hawaii.gov/highways/safe-communites/ There were 17 in Jan-Feb. April 4. Don't have May yet. It may be that COVID saved as many lives as it took.)
> 
> If I was betting the OVER/UNDER on number of cases in October - December, I'd put the number at perhaps 300 and I'd take the under.



Specific timing of when tourists stopped coming to Hawaii is a key factor here.  In March the numbers of people coming to Hawaii already started to go down significantly.  By March 21st when we decided to leave the Hilton Hawaiian Village(the largest accomodations complex in Hawaii) four of the 8 buildings had already closed, the Hale Koa had already closed, and the HGVC top management at the HHV advised us the in another week or so we would be the only ones left in the timeshares so they were going to close.  The museums and theatres that we frequent had cancelled all shows.  Bars were closed and restaurants were only doing take out.  Social distancing was already in place for awhile.  Honolulu like we know it was already closed up.  Exactly when the timeshare and hotel guest count started to go down I didn't keep track of but it didn't happen in one or two days. 

The virus at this time was not full blown in the rest of the United States.  New York, the center of the virus in the US only had a couple of cases in February and didn't start to really go up until late March.  The threat from outside of Hawaii is much greater than in February and early March.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> The virus at this time was not full blown in the rest of the United States. New York, the center of the virus in the US only had a couple of cases in February and didn't start to really go up until late March. The threat from outside of Hawaii is much greater than in February and early March.


This is where I disagree. The KNOWN threat, yes. But if you think there were only "a couple of cases in February" in the US, you're fooling yourself. There were probably thousands or tens of thousands. I suspect some of the "flu" and "pneumonia" deaths in January and February were in fact COVID. But we had no test for COVID, and almost no medical understanding of it, at that time. Given the lengthy incubation time, the amount of asymptomatic infection and spread, and lower mortality rate than first thought, I believe history will show a very different story. With a 0.5% mortality rate you need 200 cases to get a single death. With a 30-60 day lag between initial infection -> incubation -> hospitalization -> death, you have many 1000's of infections before you record that very first death.  Now add exponential growth with an R0 of 1.9, and, those 1000's of patients with it before the first death, and you have an out of control wildfire of spread before the first patient died.

That's the epidemiological reality.

So my point is, by the time in March when numbers were dropping, COVID was all over Hawaii, hidden by the lack of testing, knowledge, and mortality, and spreading freely until the mitigation/shut down began mid-Month.

Now, in Oct or whenever tourism returns, it returns with testing, social distancing, masks, hand washing, and, importantly due to testing, a lower volume of inflow of infected people. And, critically, the R0 will be well below 1.0 due to the elimination of the high-risk activities, masks and distancing, eliminating exponential spread, and making containment relatively easy compared with an R0 of almost 2.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?



Much of my concern has to do with an inability to trust the vendors to provide a clean environment for travel. Airports, planes, car rental, hotels/timeshares, restaurants, uber/Lyft, etc. I’m not there yet.

Also, did I write that they would have a “bigger Covid problem”? Hmm...

I also have no rush to travel. I’m not out to prove my resilience against a known virus for which we have no vaccine. Some of you seem to have this need to get out there as soon as possible...that’s not me. I had several months of travel booked for this year I will be canceling and at this point I have zero regrets doing so. I’m just hoping I will be able to travel comfortably in 2021, and I’m not optimistic.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

Yellowfin said:


> News about the pilot project to allow Japanese visitors first. I'd be curious to know if the hotels are thrilled about the idea to reopen but have a 10-15% occupancy, they may still bleed money. The same for other businesses. I am sure those that own timeshares in Hawaii are not going to be thrilled about this. So you have paid maintenance fees (and local taxes) for years and you are told that someone from Japan will be allowed but not you.



It makes perfect sense to restrict access to those regions which have successfully flattened the curve, reduced the Rt rate significantly, and testing in sufficient numbers. The continental US has not done that, so not sure why anyone would think they should be admitted before, or with, others that have done so. I applaud Hawaii for even considering such an option, since I’m sure they realize how that may appear to the rest of the country.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Yellowfin

Ken555 said:


> It makes perfect sense to restrict access to those regions which have successfully flattened the curve, reduced the Rt rate significantly, and testing in sufficient numbers. The continental US has not done that, so not sure why anyone would think they should be admitted before, or with, others that have done so. I applaud Hawaii for even considering such an option, since I’m sure they realize how that may appear to the rest of the country.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


maybe but there is no guarantee that Japan will not have a second wave








						Jump in virus cases sparks fear of 2nd wave in Japan
					

Infections rise in cities including Tokyo just days after end of nationwide state of emergency - Anadolu Agency




					www.aa.com.tr


----------



## SmithOp

amy241 said:


> I find the comments to this article are more interesting than the article itself. A number of people are very upset that Hawaii would open up to other countries ahead of US states which it is a part of:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As Desperation Ensues, Hawaiian Airlines Speaks on Restarting Tourism Now
> 
> 
> Hawaii-bound travelers for later in 2020 and beyond increasingly frustrated and in need of answers.
> 
> 
> 
> beatofhawaii.com



Yes, those comments reflect the ignorance of the people posting them.

Hawaii absolutely has the right to impose rules about who can visit and the conditions of the visit, it has nothing to do with being part of US. They should read up on States Rights.

US citizens dont have blanket rights to travel to any state without conditions.  Try bringing fruit into California, or buy some weed here and drive it across state line to a state that has not legalized it yet.  I know it happens, but its illegal nonetheless.  

I know its going to come up next month when the idiots start shooting off illegal fireworks here in CA, they bring them in from other States or Mexico.  Its like a war zone around here 4th of July, it makes me laugh because the city puts out Zero Tolerance message signs on all the streets at the city limit signs, does no good and no enforcement occurs.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> I'm curious on the view of an admitted pessimist...
> 
> Keeping in mind that we'll no doubt have:
> 
> some kind of testing
> social distancing
> face masks
> hand washing
> hand and facility sanitizing
> no buffets and other risky serving
> reduced restaurant capacities and safety protocols
> limited groups/crowds, and, finally,
> perhaps only 15-20% the number of tourists that were coming in February and early March
> what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?
> 
> There is a complete loss of perspective by so many it shocks me. And I'm not cavalier at all. But, really, with 30,000 tourists per DAY coming in from all over the world in February and into March, with no testing at all, no extra efforts at sanitation or hand washing, no contact tracing, and no mitigation efforts whatsoever, not even a clue there was a contagious disease that spreads without symptoms, the entire state of Hawaii had fewer than 700 cases in 3 months, and only 17 fatalities. Again, for perspective, what was the reduction in auto fatalities during the shutdown? (https://hidot.hawaii.gov/highways/safe-communites/ There were 17 in Jan-Feb. April 4. Don't have May yet. It may be that COVID saved as many lives as it took.)
> 
> If I was betting the OVER/UNDER on number of cases in October - December, I'd put the number at perhaps 300 and I'd take the under.





Kapolei said:


> There is virtually no virus right now.  I think it is possible that the actual number is zero on Kauai.  There is also no rioting or social strife.  Hawaii is a paradise right now.  If residents can tighten their belts and weather the financial storm, Hawaii could be a very highly prized destination —- a gold nugget.  I think there are solid reasons to maintain this status even at a high price.  And if it is hard to get here, people will want it even more.





Tamaradarann said:


> Specific timing of when tourists stopped coming to Hawaii is a key factor here.  In March the numbers of people coming to Hawaii already started to go down significantly.  By March 21st when we decided to leave the Hilton Hawaiian Village(the largest accomodations complex in Hawaii) four of the 8 buildings had already closed, the Hale Koa had already closed, and the HGVC top management at the HHV advised us the in another week or so we would be the only ones left in the timeshares so they were going to close.  The museums and theatres that we frequent had cancelled all shows.  Bars were closed and restaurants were only doing take out.  Social distancing was already in place for awhile.  Honolulu like we know it was already closed up.  Exactly when the timeshare and hotel guest count started to go down I didn't keep track of but it didn't happen in one or two days.
> 
> The virus at this time was not full blown in the rest of the United States.  New York, the center of the virus in the US only had a couple of cases in February and didn't start to really go up until late March.  The threat from outside of Hawaii is much greater than in February and early March.





csodjd said:


> This is where I disagree. The KNOWN threat, yes. But if you think there were only "a couple of cases in February" in the US, you're fooling yourself. There were probably thousands or tens of thousands. I suspect some of the "flu" and "pneumonia" deaths in January and February were in fact COVID. But we had no test for COVID, and almost no medical understanding of it, at that time. Given the lengthy incubation time, the amount of asymptomatic infection and spread, and lower mortality rate than first thought, I believe history will show a very different story. With a 0.5% mortality rate you need 200 cases to get a single death. With a 30-60 day lag between initial infection -> incubation -> hospitalization -> death, you have many 1000's of infections before you record that very first death.  Now add exponential growth with an R0 of 1.9, and, those 1000's of patients with it before the first death, and you have an out of control wildfire of spread before the first patient died.
> 
> That's the epidemiological reality.
> 
> So my point is, by the time in March when numbers were dropping, COVID was all over Hawaii, hidden by the lack of testing, knowledge, and mortality, and spreading freely until the mitigation/shut down began mid-Month.
> 
> Now, in Oct or whenever tourism returns, it returns with testing, social distancing, masks, hand washing, and, importantly due to testing, a lower volume of inflow of infected people. And, critically, the R0 will be well below 1.0 due to the elimination of the high-risk activities, masks and distancing, eliminating exponential spread, and making containment relatively easy compared with an R0 of almost 2.





Ken555 said:


> Much of my concern has to do with an inability to trust the vendors to provide a clean environment for travel. Airports, planes, car rental, hotels/timeshares, restaurants, uber/Lyft, etc. I’m not there yet.
> 
> Also, did I write that they would have a “bigger Covid problem”? Hmm...
> 
> I also have no rush to travel. I’m not out to prove my resilience against a known virus for which we have no vaccine. Some of you seem to have this need to get out there as soon as possible...that’s not me. I had several months of travel booked for this year I will be canceling and at this point I have zero regrets doing so. I’m just hoping I will be able to travel comfortably in 2021, and I’m not optimistic.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


In my opinion, the posts quoted above contain opinion and hypothesis, and do not belong in this thread related to FACTUAL status only. They should be moved to the other Hawaii reopening thread. And this post deleted as well to keep this thread clean on point.


----------



## Luanne

SmithOp said:


> I know its going to come up next month when the idiots start shooting off illegal fireworks here in CA, they bring them in from other States or Mexico.  Its like a war zone around here 4th of July, it makes me laugh because the city puts out Zero Tolerance message signs on all the streets at the city limit signs, does no good and no enforcement occurs.
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


I'm going to take this off topic, but when we lived in California we could buy legal fireworks in the county next to us.  They were legal to buy, and to set off.  So no one had to go to another state or Mexico to get the "Safe and Sane" fireworks. And for awhile you could get firecrackers in Chinatown (San Francisco).


----------



## beachlynn

A few thoughts. This is all just chatter at this point. We don't know when opening will happen. The gov over there probably doesn't either. 2 weeks ago the LA county Rep said it would likely be the end of July before LA opened. People lost their mind because it was 2 1/2 months away. One thing that we know about Covid is that it is new and everything has changed about it pretty frequently. Well, lo and behold LA County opened up most things this last Tues evening and LA city followed the next day knowing they would be losing out on many tax $$. Hawaii has done a good job of limiting infection so who knows what 2 weeks or month will bring.
Don't we hope that Gov Ige and local officials have been working on the logistics of opening all of this time? I wouldn't think they would be just waiting to work on options after they decide to open up. It is obviously in their best interests and those of their citizens to do it relatively quickly, efficiently and of course safely.
What if someone has a fever and it is not Covid related or contagious? Are they refused entry. My dad was just traveling and got a sore on his leg and it got infected so based on a temp only check he would be refused entry which wouldn't be fair.
The testing is going to open up a bucket of worms.  What if as testing gets more sophisticated somebody tested positive but had immunity and wasn't contagious and they were turned away. I've heard that it is possible that people can test positive a 2nd time but they aren't contagious because they are shedding dead virus cells. Until testing gets really refined it would be hard to discern the risk. It would be devastating to have a paid for vacation that you couldn't cancel at the last minute. I can see people say that they can't take that risk so they will chose another place to spend their vacation dollars. I know there are plenty of people who live there would be happy about that but there are many others who would not.  I own 2 timeshares and I picked Hawaii because I love it. I'm not excited about going to somewhere else but I might if I have to worry that at the airport I might get turned away and lose money because I can't cancel in a timely manner.


----------



## Ken555

Yellowfin said:


> maybe but there is no guarantee that Japan will not have a second wave
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Jump in virus cases sparks fear of 2nd wave in Japan
> 
> 
> Infections rise in cities including Tokyo just days after end of nationwide state of emergency - Anadolu Agency
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aa.com.tr



There’s no guarantee anyplace won’t have a second wave! 

Given the current situation, it makes sense they may be included with any travel arrangement. This is similar to New Zealand and Australia, I believe, and other regions. 

Not sure why this is a surprise that Hawaii wants to remain COVID-free.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> Much of my concern has to do with an inability to trust the vendors to provide a clean environment for travel. Airports, planes, car rental, hotels/timeshares, restaurants, uber/Lyft, etc. I’m not there yet.


Well, you may be correct, but they're going to be providing a cleaner environment than they were before COVID, even if it's imperfect. And they are very motivated to do so.


----------



## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> In my opinion, the posts quoted above contain opinion and hypothesis, and do not belong in this thread related to FACTUAL status only. They should be moved to the other Hawaii reopening thread. And this post deleted as well to keep this thread clean on point.



I absolutely agree. It’s too easy to just respond... move this discussion.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> In my opinion, the posts quoted above contain opinion and hypothesis, and do not belong in this thread related to FACTUAL status only. They should be moved to the other Hawaii reopening thread. And this post deleted as well to keep this thread clean on point.


I agree. I thought I was in the other thread and didn't realize this was the factual updates only thread. Too bad it doesn't show that detail at the bottom, only the top.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> Well, you may be correct, but they're going to be providing a cleaner environment than they were before COVID, even if it's imperfect. And they are very motivated to do so.



You keep writing the same thing over and over. You asked a question of me and I responded. I didn’t say you had to agree with it.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> There’s no guarantee anyplace won’t have a second wave!
> 
> Given the current situation, it makes sense they may be included with any travel arrangement. This is similar to New Zealand and Australia, I believe, and other regions.
> 
> Not sure why this is a surprise that Hawaii wants to remain COVID-free.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Sheltering in place wasn't sold to the public as a way of stopping the virus.  It was sold as "flattening the curve", so that health care facilities would not be overwhelmed. 

Even if we can effectively trace contacts and quarantine, it will not cease to exist.  There will be flareups and outbreaks.

What will happen is that through some combination of vaccines of some degree of effectiveness, a degree of herd immunity, and natural selection, the threat posed by the COVID-19 will decline to what is considered by the population to be an acceptable level of risk, switching COVID-19 from "pandemic disease" to "endemic disease".  That almost certainly will be a social decision, not a medical decision, because the medical establishment will break conservative and will warn of continuing hazards, and growing numbers of people will simply ignore the warnings and get on with life. 

People who are in vulnerable groups will need to take special precautions, much as already currently happens with people who have had organ transplants.

I suppose that sounds pessimistic, but I don't see any reason why this pandemic should be considered to somehow be different from other pandemics.


----------



## Ken555

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Sheltering in place wasn't sold to the public as a way of stopping the virus.  It was sold as "flattening the curve", so that health care facilities would not be overwhelmed.



Even so, that doesn't mean that conditions or goals won't change. Nor does it mean that it is incumbent upon Hawaii to open up and welcome visitors from areas where the virus is still spreading.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

I am becoming a lot less confident that our fall trip to Hawaii will happen...  will be watching the calendar closely to avoid missing any cancelation deadlines


----------



## Yellowfin

Ken555 said:


> Even so, that doesn't mean that conditions or goals won't change. Nor does it mean that it is incumbent upon Hawaii to open up and welcome visitors from areas where the virus is still spreading.


like Japan


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Ken555 said:


> Even so, that doesn't mean that conditions or goals won't change. Nor does it mean that it is incumbent upon Hawaii to open up and welcome visitors from areas where the virus is still spreading.


Agreed.

And those of us who have sat through timeshare sales presentations are quite familiar with being persuaded to do something under one set of conditions, only to have those conditions unilaterally altered later.

Often, it makes people feel they have been duped, and occasionally that feeling affects their subsequent behavior. Might even make them a bit cantankerous.


----------



## DavidnRobin

1Kflyerguy said:


> I am becoming a lot less confident that our fall trip to Hawaii will happen... will be watching the calendar closely to avoid missing any cancelation deadlines



IMO IMO IMO

I sympathize- we have mid-Sept reservation WKORV OFD (expensive SOs if cancelled).

If I were King of Hawaii, I would require all people entering to have a certificate of a validated COVID-19 assay that shows negative result within 7 days of arrival.
Along with Temp Check (mask, questionnaire, etc) and standard Social Distance practices.

I am at a loss why they do not coordinate and implement this ASAP.
We are certainly prepared to do this.

Other island countries are requiring C-19 testing.  I have friend that works in Singapore, and this is being required to return from US.

This is doable as the tests are becoming more readily available.

HELLO HAWAII - ARE YOU LISTENING!!!???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

Yellowfin said:


> like Japan



Of course. Why are you fixated on Japan?


----------



## luv_maui

I will second that!



DavidnRobin said:


> IMO IMO IMO
> 
> I sympathize- we have mid-Sept reservation WKORV OFD (expensive SOs if cancelled).
> 
> If I were King of Hawaii, I would require all people entering to have a certificate of a validated COVID-19 assay that shows negative result within 7 days of arrival.
> Along with Temp Check (mask, questionnaire, etc) and standard Social Distance practices.
> 
> I am at a loss why they do not coordinate and implement this ASAP.
> We are certainly prepared to do this.
> 
> Other island countries are requiring C-19 testing.  I have friend that works in Singapore, and this is being required to return from US.
> 
> This is doable as the tests are becoming more readily available.
> 
> HELLO HAWAII - ARE YOU LISTENING!!!???
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
> I’m 100% on board with this.  Maybe(?) they are working on this hopefully?


----------



## Kapolei

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> In *my* *opinion*, the posts quoted above contain opinion and hypothesis, and do not belong in this thread related to FACTUAL status only. They should be moved to the other Hawaii reopening thread. And this post deleted as well to keep this thread clean on point.




This is the fact based thread.  You shouldn’t be offering an opinion here.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Kapolei said:


> This is the fact based thread.  You shouldn’t be offering an opinion here.


Touché.


----------



## csodjd

Kapolei said:


> This is the fact based thread.  You shouldn’t be offering an opinion here.


It is a fact that it is T_R_Oglodyte's opinion.


----------



## gdrj

Ken555 said:


> It makes perfect sense to restrict access to those regions which have successfully flattened the curve, reduced the Rt rate significantly, and testing in sufficient numbers. The continental US has not done that, so not sure why anyone would think they should be admitted before, or with, others that have done so. I applaud Hawaii for even considering such an option, since I’m sure they realize how that may appear to the rest of the country.
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



To what end? Hawaii may want to limit travelers from mainland but  as their economy continues to crash, small businesses unfortunately close up, unemployment stays high, and homelessness grows they will have their hands out seeking Federal money, from those mainland taxpayers.


----------



## Luanne

gdrj said:


> To what end? Hawaii may want to limit travelers from mainland but  as their economy continues to crash, small businesses unfortunately close up, unemployment stays high, and homelessness grows they will have their hands out seeking Federal money, from those mainland taxpayers.


Hawaii will have their hands out for Federal money, *just like every other state.* And from your post it sounds like you assume they don't pay any federal taxes.


----------



## csodjd

gdrj said:


> To what end? Hawaii may want to limit travelers from mainland but  as their economy continues to crash, small businesses unfortunately close up, unemployment stays high, and homelessness grows they will have their hands out seeking Federal money, from those mainland taxpayers.


I believe it was the Mayor of Maui (not certain) that said the other day that the tourism-unemployed ought to start looking for a different line of work, and was suggesting they might look at working for the state or federal government. His feeling was that in the best of worlds most of them are not going to be needed in 2020.


----------



## Monica808

I'm a teacher living out here in Maui with my husband and daughter. And we see how quiet things are out here now and the need for things to open back up soon. If anyone out there is going to loose out on their week or time out there due to the quarantine and you would like to donate it to us we would be appreciative for the opportunity to get out of our house for a bit.


----------



## Yellowfin

Is this a first on TUG, somebody asking for a free week of vacation? I personally find this request slightly offensive.


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## amycurl

No, not at all. But I am interested in the number of new, non-member TUGgers posting in this thread...hmm....


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## Tamaradarann

Yellowfin said:


> Is this a first on TUG, somebody asking for a free week of vacation? I personally find this request slightly offensive.



What I find offensive is that the people are asking for the free week that the current owners of the week won't use due to the 14 day quarantine that the requestors government imposed.


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## vol_90

Tamaradarann said:


> What I find offensive is that the people are asking for the free week that the current owners of the week won't use due to the 14 day quarantine that the requestors government imposed.


Why find it offensive?  Ignore if you don't like it.  I have given away free weeks on TUG that I could not use and happy to know someone will make use of them.  Relax!!  No issues with someone asking. This is a message Board.….


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## Yellowfin

IMO it is offensive because someone is trying to benefit from the current situation, because a lot of owners have lost their businesses and jobs and they cannot use the weeks they are paying for. Also because the person is asking for a free week, is not offering any kind of compensation. It is one thing to give something for free, a totally different thing to ask for it.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Yellowfin said:


> IMO it is offensive because someone is trying to benefit from the current situation, because a lot of owners have lost their businesses and jobs and they cannot use the weeks they are paying for. Also because the person is asking for a free week, is not offering any kind of compensation. It is one thing to give something for free, a totally different thing to ask for it.



"IMO it is offensive because someone is trying to benefit from the current situation",  I agree but more specifically my point specifically is that the current 14 day quarantine situation in Hawaii makes travel there prohibitive.   While I don't disagree with the 14 day quarantine until a testing system can be established, the person asking for the free week is a citizen of the Government that has implemented the 14 day quarantine.  While the requestor is NOT the Government of Hawaii the requestor most probably is in favor of the Government's actions  and the benefit of keeping safe.  IMO this is in the same mode of a company making a shortage of product that people need and then charging alot more for the product because it is so scarce.


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## amy241

Yellowfin said:


> IMO it is offensive because someone is trying to benefit from the current situation, because a lot of owners have lost their businesses and jobs and they cannot use the weeks they are paying for. Also because the person is asking for a free week, is not offering any kind of compensation. It is one thing to give something for free, a totally different thing to ask for it.



A lot of owners are also prohibited from using their units due to the 14 day quarantine which creates a huge disincentive for traveling there in the first place.  We have been upset about it because we bought in at the Marriott Ko Olina in 2019 with usage to begin in 2020. We paid $10,500 for the week and about $2500 in MFs in January. We are all in it for about $13,000 at this point and haven’t even been able to use one day there yet. The quarantine effectively negates our ability to use the unit - even if the resort was open which I am not even sure of at this point. We would actually go and do the 14 day quarantine off site at a hotel since we are retired but I can’t count on hotels even being open to stay at. No hotels are going to open to allow a few guests to stay who may actually be willing to put the 14 days in isolation just to be able to enjoy the rest of their stay. Under these circumstances, I can’t make use of our week there. I think we would have to spend 14 days in a private vacation rental to be able to resume our plans.


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## Yellowfin

amy241 said:


> A lot of owners are also prohibited from using their units due to the 14 day quarantine which creates a huge disincentive for traveling there in the first place.  We have been upset about it because we bought in at the Marriott Ko Olina in 2019 with usage to begin in 2020. We paid $10,500 for the week and about $2500 in MFs in January. We are all in it for about $13,000 at this point and haven’t even been able to use one day there yet. The quarantine effectively negates our ability to use the unit - even if the resort was open which I am not even sure of at this point. We would actually go and do the 14 day quarantine off site at a hotel since we are retired but I can’t count on hotels even being open to stay at. No hotels are going to open to allow a few guests to stay who may actually be willing to put the 14 days in isolation just to be able to enjoy the rest of their stay. Under these circumstances, I can’t make use of our week there. I think we would have to spend 14 days in a private vacation rental to be able to resume our plans.


.
Be optimistic, the local government will reimburse the property  taxes for the months they keep the islands closed.


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## T_R_Oglodyte

amy241 said:


> A lot of owners are also prohibited from using their units due to the 14 day quarantine which creates a huge disincentive for traveling there in the first place.  We have been upset about it because we bought in at the Marriott Ko Olina in 2019 with usage to begin in 2020. We paid $10,500 for the week and about $2500 in MFs in January. We are all in it for about $13,000 at this point and haven’t even been able to use one day there yet. The quarantine effectively negates our ability to use the unit - even if the resort was open which I am not even sure of at this point. We would actually go and do the 14 day quarantine off site at a hotel since we are retired but I can’t count on hotels even being open to stay at. No hotels are going to open to allow a few guests to stay who may actually be willing to put the 14 days in isolation just to be able to enjoy the rest of their stay. Under these circumstances, I can’t make use of our week there. I think we would have to spend 14 days in a private vacation rental to be able to resume our plans.


Actually, there are hotels that are open and are accommodating people during quarantine.  That's the impetus behind the requirement that hotels room keys that are for single use only.  The key works to go into quarantine.  If you break quarantine you need to go to the front desk to get back into your room.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Yellowfin said:


> .
> Be optimistic, the local government will reimburse the property  taxes for the months they keep the islands closed.



Ok, I wasn't going to go there but this post made me do it.  First of all I need to mention that I own a Condo on Oahu so I pay property taxes to the Hawaii Government whether I go there or not.  I also own many timeshares, while they are not in Hawaii, I have spent over 1000 nights there so I have many dollars in TAT as well as sales taxes for everything I buy there during those trips.

Since the Hawaii Governments have been receiving a great reduction in revenue due to the coronavirus they may have to raise taxes.  It will be a real slap in the face to timeshare owners and exchangers if they levy tax increases primarily on timeshare real estate taxes and TAT since their logic is that they didn't travel to Hawaii in 2020 and didn't pay the TAT and sales taxes that they would have if they came to Hawaii!!


----------



## Yellowfin

Tamaradarann said:


> Ok, I wasn't going to go there but this post made me do it.  First of all I need to mention that I own a Condo on Oahu so I pay property taxes to the Hawaii Government whether I go there or not.  I also own many timeshares, while they are not in Hawaii, I have spent over 1000 nights there so I have many dollars in TAT as well as sales taxes for everything I buy there during those trips.
> 
> Since the Hawaii Governments have been receiving a great reduction in revenue due to the coronavirus they may have to raise taxes.  It will be a real slap in the face to timeshare owners and exchangers if they levy tax increases primarily on timeshare real estate taxes and TAT since their logic is that they didn't travel to Hawaii in 2020 and didn't pay the TAT and sales taxes that they would have if they came to Hawaii!!


I do not disagree with most of what what you said, taxes can go up and in the long run we can expect that in many places, not just Hawaii.

But I would like to make a distinction between usage and access. If I have an internet subscription, I will have to pay whether I use it or not. But the moment the coverage stops in my area for an extended period of time due to the fault of the company, I would expect a refund for that period.


----------



## amy241

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Actually, there are hotels that are open and are accommodating people during quarantine.  That's the impetus behind the requirement that hotels room keys that are for single use only.  The key works to go into quarantine.  If you break quarantine you need to go to the front desk to get back into your room.



This is interesting as I had not realized any hotels were actually open right now - I thought most of the quarantine violators were in illegal short term rentals from what I have been reading. We had a 37 day trip planned departing April 24th that we had to cancel, holding first class seats on Hawaiian Air and visiting 3 different islands so we had island hops ticketed as well. Hawaiian Air would not refund so we pushed the trip forward and it is now departing November 22nd. We are thinking of adding 14 days to the front end of the trip as we are not sure a quarantine will be lifted even as late as November - but that will involve change fees to 2 separate sets of tickets as we are on JetBlue from FLL-PHX and Hawaiian Air from PHX-HNL. We are booked in the Hale Koa for the first 10 nights in HNL but I don’t think they are open presently so who knows if they will be open in November. It is hard to know what to do with so much uncertainty.

Does anyone know which hotels are presently open in Waikiki?


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## T_R_Oglodyte

amy241 said:


> Does anyone know which hotels are presently open in Waikiki?


I would try Googling something such as "hotels open in Waikiki during quarantine".  You might also do a search using a site such as Expedia or Kayak for the dates you are interested in.  If a hotel is closed it wouldn't come up as available.


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## Tamaradarann

Yellowfin said:


> I do not disagree with most of what what you said, taxes can go up and in the long run we can expect that in many places, not just Hawaii.
> 
> But I would like to make a distinction between usage and access. If I have an internet subscription, I will have to pay whether I use it or not. But the moment the coverage stops in my area for an extended period of time due to the fault of the company, I would expect a refund for that period.



There is no question that taxes will be going up in the furture.  Local, State as well as Federal Taxes.  However, my point about the timeshare real estate taxes and the TAT is that Hawaii already taxes timeshares at a higher real estate rate than other condominiums and Hawaii is the only state in the United States that levies a TAT Transient Accomodations Tax.  Therefore, if they increase those taxes disproportionately it would be adding insult to injury since not only did the Hawaii Government implement a 14 day quarantine to discourage(in reality prevent) tourists from coming, since tourists didn't come they didn't pay the TAT and GET(sales taxes) that they normally do to support Hawaii they need to make up their deficit by socking it to timeshares.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> I do not disagree with most of what what you said, taxes can go up and in the long run we can expect that in many places, not just Hawaii.
> 
> But I would like to make a distinction between usage and access. If I have an internet subscription, I will have to pay whether I use it or not. But the moment the coverage stops in my area for an extended period of time due to the fault of the company, I would expect a refund for that period.


That's a Pandora's box. What happens if there is a hurricane and the government shuts down everything including the airports for several days. Or if there is a volcano eruption that blocks access to some hotels or timeshares? Or a big earthquake and, say, Lagoon Tower is badly damaged and the government deems it unsafe. Who has assumed the risk of those kind of events? Certainly the government hasn't made any promises. Doesn't the OWNER assume the risk?


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## lynne

Tamaradarann said:


> There is no question that taxes will be going up in the furture.  Local, State as well as Federal Taxes.  However, my point about the timeshare real estate taxes and the TAT is that Hawaii already taxes timeshares at a higher real estate rate than other condominiums and Hawaii is the only state in the United States that levies a TAT Transient Accomodations Tax.  Therefore, if they increase those taxes disproportionately it would be adding insult to injury since not only did the Hawaii Government implement a 14 day quarantine to discourage(in reality prevent) tourists from coming, since tourists didn't come they didn't pay the TAT and GET(sales taxes) that they normally do to support Hawaii they need to make up their deficit by socking it to timeshares.


Just to clarify a bit, the TAT is assessed at the same rate for all properties rented for 180 days or less.  This tax is currently 10.25% for all rental accommodations.  The GET for rental properties as well as all goods and services are 4.5% with the exception that Maui did not include the additional .5% surcharge. 

Property taxes are an entirely different structure where they are assessed by county and within county, by type of property.   There is no difference in Oahu, Kauai and Hawaii County between timeshares and hotel/resort rates.   Maui is the only county to assign a special category for timeshare property tax rates differentiating it from Hotel/Resort.   

Hawai’i County Tax Rates Fiscal Year Beginning July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020
Tax Rate Per $1,000 Net Taxable Building / Tax Rate Per $1000 Net Taxable Land

PROPERTY CLASS   
0 Affordable Rental Housing  $6.15   /    $6.15
1 Residential                          $11.10   / $11.10
2 Apartment                          $11.70   / $11.70
3 Commercial                        $10.70   / $10.70
4 Industrial                            $10.70   / $10.70
5 Agricultural and Native Forest  $9.35     /   $9.35
6 Conservation                      $11.55  /  $11.55
7 Hotel/Resort                       $11.55   / $11.55
9 Homeowner                         $6.15    /  $6.15


HONOLULU COUNTY OAHU PROPERTY TAX RATES

July 2019-June 2020
(Amount of Tax Per $1000 of Net Taxable Value)Residential$3.50Hotel and Resort*$13.90*Commercial$12.40Industrial$12.40Agricultural$5.70Preservation$5.70Public Service$0.00Residential A – Tier 1
(Applied to the net taxable value of the property up to $1,000,000)$4.50Residential A – Tier 2
(Applied to the net taxable value of the property in excess of $1,000,000)*$10.50*Vacant Agricultural$8.50




*2019 – 2020 Maui Property Tax Rates*
The 2019 – 2020 Maui Property Tax Rates have been released.  There was a slight increase in rates for many of the classifications from the previous year.
These real property tax rates are shown per $1000 of net taxable assessed valuation.  The rates shown below are effective July 1, 2019, thru June 30, 2020.
The Residential Tax Rate is  $5.60
The Apartment Tax Rate is  $6.31
The Commercial Tax Rate is  $7.39
The Industrial Tax Rate is  $7.48
The Agricultural Tax Rate is  $5.94
The Conservation Tax Rate is  $6.43
The Hotel and Resort Tax Rate is  $11.00
The Time Share Tax Rate is  $14.40
The Homeowner Tax Rate is  $2.90
The Commercialized Residential Rate is $4.60
The Short Term Rental Rate is $10.75

*2019 Tax Rates Kauai*

_(Per $1,000 Net Assessed Valuation)_*Tax Rate*Homestead$ 3.05Residential$ 6.05Residential Investor$ 8.05Vacation Rental$ 9.85Hotel and Resort$10.85Commercial$ 8.10Commercialized Home Use$ 5.05Industrial$ 8.10Agricultural$ 6.75Conservation$ 6.75


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## jacknsara

Monica808 said:


> I'm a teacher living out here in Maui with my husband and daughter. And we see how quiet things are out here now and the need for things to open back up soon. If anyone out there is going to loose out on their week or time out there due to the quarantine and you would like to donate it to us we would be appreciative for the opportunity to get out of our house for a bit.


Aloha,
Perhaps this request is an opportunity to discuss a larger issue.  Most or all of us are impacted by covid-19; I have no special sympathy for Hawaiian locals who are not descendants of subjects (citizens) of the Hawaiian Kingdom (for more on what that means, seach youtube for “dr keanu sai” e.g. 



).  President Clinton and the U.S. Congress apologized to those Hawaiians for the illegal U.S. overthrow (



).  While Dr. Sai presents well-researched logical and legal arguments that Hawaii remains illegally occupied territory, I see no pragmatic chance that the Hawaiian Kingdom will re-emerge with independence.   However, the resentment is likely to fester from generation to generation.
For those descendants of subjects who provide assurance of responsibility for preserving timeshare facilities, why not allow them use of otherwise vacant capacity during the quarantine period.  Why not extend such a measure of good will.  I don’t expect it to result in any of those folks changing their minds.  Whether they like it or not, they are Americans, but they suffer in Hawaii as many minorities do on the mainland.  As long as they don’t damage timeshare property, why not share some aloha?
I would also extend the same consideration to the extended ohana of the resort staffs who are impacted by current conditions (e.g. layoffs).
Jack


----------



## Luanne

Monica808 said:


> I'm a teacher living out here in Maui with my husband and daughter. And we see how quiet things are out here now and the need for things to open back up soon. If anyone out there is going to *loose* out on their week or time out there due to the quarantine and you would like to donate it to us we would be appreciative for the opportunity to get out of our house for a bit.


Okay, I'll admit this is picky, but as a teacher I would think you would know the proper use of "loose" vs "lose".  Just call me the grammar, or spelling, police.


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## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> IMO it is offensive because someone is trying to benefit from the current situation, because a lot of owners have lost their businesses and jobs and they cannot use the weeks they are paying for. Also because the person is asking for a free week, is not offering any kind of compensation. It is one thing to give something for free, a totally different thing to ask for it.


If I had a week going to waste I'd be happy to let someone that could get some use out of it use it. A nice bottle of wine for thank you would be compensation enough.


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## Tamaradarann

lynne said:


> Just to clarify a bit, the TAT is assessed at the same rate for all properties rented for 180 days or less.  This tax is currently 10.25% for all rental accommodations.  The GET for rental properties as well as all goods and services are 4.5% with the exception that Maui did not include the additional .5% surcharge.
> 
> Property taxes are an entirely different structure where they are assessed by county and within county, by type of property.   There is no difference in Oahu, Kauai and Hawaii County between timeshares and hotel/resort rates.   Maui is the only county to assign a special category for timeshare property tax rates differentiating it from Hotel/Resort.
> 
> Hawai’i County Tax Rates Fiscal Year Beginning July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020
> Tax Rate Per $1,000 Net Taxable Building / Tax Rate Per $1000 Net Taxable Land
> 
> PROPERTY CLASS
> 0 Affordable Rental Housing  $6.15   /    $6.15
> 1 Residential                          $11.10   / $11.10
> 2 Apartment                          $11.70   / $11.70
> 3 Commercial                        $10.70   / $10.70
> 4 Industrial                            $10.70   / $10.70
> 5 Agricultural and Native Forest  $9.35     /   $9.35
> 6 Conservation                      $11.55  /  $11.55
> 7 Hotel/Resort                       $11.55   / $11.55
> 9 Homeowner                         $6.15    /  $6.15
> 
> 
> HONOLULU COUNTY OAHU PROPERTY TAX RATES
> 
> July 2019-June 2020
> (Amount of Tax Per $1000 of Net Taxable Value)Residential$3.50Hotel and Resort*$13.90*Commercial$12.40Industrial$12.40Agricultural$5.70Preservation$5.70Public Service$0.00Residential A – Tier 1
> (Applied to the net taxable value of the property up to $1,000,000)$4.50Residential A – Tier 2
> (Applied to the net taxable value of the property in excess of $1,000,000)*$10.50*Vacant Agricultural$8.50
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *2019 – 2020 Maui Property Tax Rates*
> The 2019 – 2020 Maui Property Tax Rates have been released.  There was a slight increase in rates for many of the classifications from the previous year.
> These real property tax rates are shown per $1000 of net taxable assessed valuation.  The rates shown below are effective July 1, 2019, thru June 30, 2020.
> The Residential Tax Rate is  $5.60
> The Apartment Tax Rate is  $6.31
> The Commercial Tax Rate is  $7.39
> The Industrial Tax Rate is  $7.48
> The Agricultural Tax Rate is  $5.94
> The Conservation Tax Rate is  $6.43
> The Hotel and Resort Tax Rate is  $11.00
> The Time Share Tax Rate is  $14.40
> The Homeowner Tax Rate is  $2.90
> The Commercialized Residential Rate is $4.60
> The Short Term Rental Rate is $10.75
> 
> *2019 Tax Rates Kauai*
> 
> _(Per $1,000 Net Assessed Valuation)_*Tax Rate*Homestead$ 3.05Residential$ 6.05Residential Investor$ 8.05Vacation Rental$ 9.85Hotel and Resort$10.85Commercial$ 8.10Commercialized Home Use$ 5.05Industrial$ 8.10Agricultural$ 6.75Conservation$ 6.75



Thanks for the clarification, your details support my points.  The property taxes are already higher for timeshares and hotels than for homeowner properties.  Therefore, increasing those already higher property taxes on timeshares and hotels disproportionately more than homeowner properties due to the lost revenue due to the coronavirus after implementing a 14 day quarantine which discouraged(really prevented) owners from using the timeshare property that they pay property taxes on would be adding insult to injury.  

In addition, timeshares stays in other states do not incur a TAT Transient Accomodation Tax for each night one stays as we do in Hawaii.  Again increasing that tax after implementing a 14 day quarantine due to the lost revenue due to the coronavirus after implementing a 14 day quarantine which discouraged(really prevented) timeshare stays disproportionately more than other taxes would be adding insult to injury.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Thanks for the clarification, your details support my points. The property taxes are already higher for timeshares and hotels than for homeowner properties. Therefore, increasing those already higher property taxes on timeshares and hotels disproportionately more than homeowner properties due to the lost revenue due to the coronavirus after implementing a 14 day quarantine which discouraged(really prevented) owners from using the timeshare property that they pay property taxes on would be adding insult to injury.


That's true. However, if you're going to raise taxes, as a politician, do you raise taxes on those that vote, or on those that cannot vote?


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## DavidnRobin

PLEASE SEE TITLE OF THREAD.
perhaps take your arguments/opinions to another thread - especially the TUG newbies.

To that end...
HI should implement C-19 testing protocol for those arriving in HI.
(e.g. certificate of testing within so many days of arrival). I’d be surprised if this isn’t happening (hopefully it is being planned)
As an island state - they can do this.
Some countries are doing this for C-19 already.

For years travelers have to show immunization certification for certain diseases - so this would be similar.

If you are living on HI - you should be contacting your Legislators about this.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## DeniseM

Regarding gifting your timeshare to a Hawaiian resident:  My experience is that most resorts do not want people checking in, and many are sending letters to owners discouraging them from coming, even if they have a reservation.  Some, like the Hilton Hawaiian Village, are closing down for a period of time. Also, most resorts have closed down their amenities, so even if a local resident was staying there, the pools, restaurants, etc are closed to them.  So I think there could be issues with gifting your week to a stranger.  YMMV

* I have gifted my timeshares to strangers before, but not under such difficult circumstances.


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## slip

Pools and restaurants will be opening June 5th with restrictions. I think it will be important for inter-island flights to start without the quarantine. That will open up some hotels and timeshares.


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## csodjd

slip said:


> Pools and restaurants will be opening June 5th with restrictions. I think it will be important for inter-island flights to start without the quarantine. That will open up some hotels and timeshares.


There's a bit of a chicken-egg problem. Your post made me wonder, what does Hilton Hawaiian Village say/allow right now? So I logged in and this is the message for my "upcoming" (October) reservation:





The ** part was the notable part. I have to assume it would take them at least 30 days to open once they decide to do so, perhaps more. 

Then I put in some dates. The system shows nothing before July 1, but starting July 1 it will ALLOW me to book a room at any of their Hawaii timeshare properties. It has the same message, but no other information that I can find.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> That's true. However, if you're going to raise taxes, as a politician, do you raise taxes on those that vote, or on those that cannot vote?



I totally understand the politics and agree with what you are saying if taken as an isolated statement without context.   However, the direction of this discussion took started with Monica 808, who lives in Maui, asking if anyone has a week that they would be losing due to the coronavirus and would like to donate it to her and her family.  There were comments made pro and con on doing it.

I mentioned that I found the request offensive in view of the fact that a prime reason that the owner of a timeshare would not be using their timeshare and would be losing it would be because Monica 808's Government imposed a 14 day quarantine so that tourists would not come to Hawaii.  So now she was asking to benefit from that retriction implement by her Government. 

Yellowfin then made a comment that perhaps the local government would remimburse taxes for the months that they are keeping the islands closed to tourist with the quarantine.

That assertion, which I am sure won't happen, prompted me to make the comment that if the Hawaii Government raised property taxes more on timeshares and hotels than on other properties due to the lost revenue from the corona virus it would be adding insult to injury after implementing the 14 day quarentine which prevented people from using their timeshares.


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## Monica808

Sorry I did not intend to offend anyone with my post and I am truly sorry if I did. But some resorts are still open with reduced work force and I have talked to a few people that are still working at some of them. Everyone says the same thing that  we need guest/owners to return asap. They need rooms filled to keep jobs.


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## Tamaradarann

Monica808 said:


> Sorry I did not intend to offend anyone with my post and I am truly sorry if I did. But some resorts are still open with reduced work force and I have talked to a few people that are still working at some of them. Everyone says the same thing that  we need guest/owners to return asap. They need rooms filled to keep jobs.



Please don't take my being offended by your post personally it wasn't meant to be a personal attack.  I wanted to express a sentiment that the Government and people of Hawaii need to be sensitive to visitors, and since this is a timeshare group specifically timeshare owners, that have been prevented from using their ownership that they paid taxes and maintenance fees for when they contemplate raising taxes to cover the revenue shortfall due to the coronavirus.  Governor Ige correctly protected the citizens of Hawaii by implementing the 14 day quarantine which, in practical terms, prevented tourists from coming.  That has injured many timeshare owners and tourists.  Taking advantage of the effects of the 14 day quarantine or penalizing the timeshare owners or tourists with raising taxes disproportionately due to the effects of the 14 day quarantine is adding insult to injury.  

Timeshare owners and tourists do want to return to Hawaii.  Lifting the 14 day quarantine is the key to filling those rooms so people keep or get back their jobs.  Doing it smartly is the challenge.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I totally understand the politics and agree with what you are saying if taken as an isolated statement without context.   However, the direction of this discussion took started with Monica 808, who lives in Maui, asking if anyone has a week that they would be losing due to the coronavirus and would like to donate it to her and her family.  There were comments made pro and con on doing it.
> 
> I mentioned that I found the request offensive in view of the fact that a prime reason that the owner of a timeshare would not be using their timeshare and would be losing it would be because Monica 808's Government imposed a 14 day quarantine so that tourists would not come to Hawaii.  So now she was asking to benefit from that retriction implement by her Government.
> 
> Yellowfin then made a comment that perhaps the local government would remimburse taxes for the months that they are keeping the islands closed to tourist with the quarantine.
> 
> That assertion, which I am sure won't happen, prompted me to make the comment that if the Hawaii Government raised property taxes more on timeshares and hotels than on other properties due to the lost revenue from the corona virus it would be adding insult to injury after implementing the 14 day quarentine which prevented people from using their timeshares.


I guess that begs the question. Let's assume that Monica808 wasn't a Hawaii resident, she was just someone who had cleared the 14-day quarantine and was in Hawaii, and would be thrilled if she could stay another week if someone had an unusable place and didn't mind her using it. Is it the fact that she's a Hawaii resident, and therefore it is "her Government" that imposed the quarantine that makes a difference? 

I might also ask, to the extent any of us own timeshares in Hawaii, it's it "our" government too? We depend on that government quite a bit, to provide fire and police, pave roads, ensure safe restaurants, maintain beaches, etc.


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## Tucsonadventurer

There are quite a few Hawaii resorts under Accommodation certificates so that would be an inexpensive way to quarantine. Sounds horrid to me but there are some for most of the islands. I was surprised to see them.


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## amy241

Tucsonadventurer said:


> There are quite a few Hawaii resorts under Accommodation certificates so that would be an inexpensive way to quarantine. Sounds horrid to me but there are some for most of the islands. I was surprised to see them.



It is doubtful you could get 2 consecutive weeks at the same resort in the same unit — anything short of that would be a quarantine violation. You can’t go change your room or the resort in the middle of the 14 days.


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## Henry M.

I don't feel there was anything wrong in posting an interest to take a week if someone couldn't use it otherwise. As a matter of fact, I find it a good idea to pursue giving someone local my week if I were not able to use it or otherwise rent it. It would be a lot better than letting it go to waste. Thanks to Monica, I'll be thinking about that option if I'm ever in that position.

Monica's suggestion is no different than someone else's, a while back, that proposed giving unused Staroptions away to a charity. In the current situation, a charity would have as much of a hard time getting a benefit out of Staroptions as any other out-of-state guest, so local use is a better alternative.


----------



## Tucsonadventurer

amy241 said:


> It is doubtful you could get 2 consecutive weeks at the same resort in the same unit — anything short of that would be a quarantine violation. You can’t go change your room or the resort in the middle of the 14 days.


We have 5 or 6 certificates so it is possible .I wouldnt want to do it, but am just surprised to see them posted. We are hoping to visit in Jan and Feb but have all refundable reservations in case.


----------



## Yellowfin

Tamaradarann said:


> There is no question that taxes will be going up in the furture.  Local, State as well as Federal Taxes.  However, my point about the timeshare real estate taxes and the TAT is that Hawaii already taxes timeshares at a higher real estate rate than other condominiums and Hawaii is the only state in the United States that levies a TAT Transient Accomodations Tax.  Therefore, if they increase those taxes disproportionately it would be adding insult to injury since not only did the Hawaii Government implement a 14 day quarantine to discourage(in reality prevent) tourists from coming, since tourists didn't come they didn't pay the TAT and GET(sales taxes) that they normally do to support Hawaii they need to make up their deficit by socking it to timeshares.


Furloughs are not off the table. It would be tragic for many families, especially those where one parent working in tourism or other services had already lost the job. 









						HGEA says the state could still furlough workers to make up lost revenue
					

“The talk of furloughs is nothing but demoralizing for our workers and workforce.”




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## echino

Another annoying development: all my craigslist timeshare rental ads for Hawaii get promptly flagged and removed. That did not happen before the virus. The dates are in December 2020 and in 2021, so I don't think it violates anything? Who goes flagging craigslist postings indiscriminately, Hawaii locals?


----------



## amy241

echino said:


> Another annoying development: all my craigslist timeshare rental ads for Hawaii get promptly flagged and removed. That did not happen before the virus. The dates are in December 2020 and in 2021, so I don't think it violates anything? Who goes flagging craigslist postings indiscriminately, Hawaii locals?



Many locals definitely seem proactive in limiting tourism right now so you may be right that they are flagging your ads. That speaks to well organized opposition to tourism if true. They are especially active and organized as it relates to quarantine violators. The article gives the link to their (closed) Facebook group,  Hawaii Quarantine Kapu Breakers.









						Breaking Quarantine In Hawaii? A Citizens' Group Is Watching
					

The group, seeing gaps in enforcement, has helped state and local investigators track down scofflaw tourists.




					www.civilbeat.org


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> "*Gov. David Ige is expected to announce the lifting of the interisland quarantine this afternoon, he said on the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s COVID-19 Care Conversation. * Interisland travelers, however, will undergo health screenings, a temperature scan and paperwork on their travel history, residence, and where they will be staying on the island “so we can know where you came from and where you traveled to” and make sure that “no one has traveled to out of state and visited any of the other communities where the virus has actively been circulated.”
> 
> "On reopening trans-Pacific travel, Ige said authorities will focus on communities with low virus incidence first, including New Zealand and Australia “as first candidates that we would be interested in,” and “obviously from an economic perspective, Japan and South Korea.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gov. David Ige to lift 14-day interisland travel quarantine on June 16
> 
> 
> Gov. David Ige is lifting the 14-day interisland travel quarantine for Hawaii residents on June 16 to allow families to “reconnect with one another” and restore the local economy amid the coronavirus pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com


That's a discouraging and troubling comment by the Governor. He's inclined to allow non-American tourism before American. But there is huge variation in the US, even among Counties. There are 10 counties in California, for instance, with a combined total of 31 cases at all, and 25 counties with zero new cases and 9 more with 2 or 1 new case reported. And the "economic perspective" is very interesting, because that seems to suggest there's room to compromise risk for money. I'm biased, but I think a US State should find a way to allow Americans in first.


----------



## gdrj

Luanne said:


> Hawaii will have their hands out for Federal money, *just like every other state.* And from your post it sounds like you assume they don't pay any federal taxes.



No I dont assume they dont pay any taxes.  My point (though maybe not clear), is if the Governor is going to keep tourist out longer than needed, large parts of the economy which rely on tourism will remain shuttered causing economic chaos.  Hawaii is the 6th highest State dependent on Federal tax dollars.  A State cant just shut down their State and than come to the US taxpayers and say we need your help.  Decisions by the Governor has consequences, and he shouldnt expect to be bailed out.  When Hawaiian AIr, the largest employer has to layoff everyone or shut down for good it is a problem.  To say there is no timetable on reopening is irresponsible. To not communicate to travel industry or to the tourist will just cause further delays in a rebound.  Hawaii travel typically takes longer to plan. So as he piddles away time tourist make other plans for the Fall and those dollars wont just come back which means when tourism opens up hotels, restaurants, tour operators wont need as much staff IF they even reopen.  For some hotels it will be better to stay closed than operate without mainland tourists


----------



## rickandcindy23

echino said:


> Another annoying development: all my craigslist timeshare rental ads for Hawaii get promptly flagged and removed. That did not happen before the virus. The dates are in December 2020 and in 2021, so I don't think it violates anything? Who goes flagging craigslist postings indiscriminately, Hawaii locals?


All it takes is one person to decide your ads are offensive or just plain competition for their properties.  Surprisingly, a lot of the Hawaii residents have rental homes and condos they rent until paid for, then they move into that property after many years of paying that mortgage down or off completely.  

I have had my ads taken down in Orlando, Branson, Myrtle Beach.  People do not like competition.   I would keep putting them back up.


----------



## BagsArePacked

echino said:


> Another annoying development: all my craigslist timeshare rental ads for Hawaii get promptly flagged and removed. That did not happen before the virus. The dates are in December 2020 and in 2021, so I don't think it violates anything? Who goes flagging craigslist postings indiscriminately, Hawaii locals?



My experience with Craigslist is that bots will flag posts that appear to be spam and frequent reposts, posts that are cross-listed, or contain very similar information.  Maybe change it up a bit and give it a few days.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I guess that begs the question. Let's assume that Monica808 wasn't a Hawaii resident, she was just someone who had cleared the 14-day quarantine and was in Hawaii, and would be thrilled if she could stay another week if someone had an unusable place and didn't mind her using it. Is it the fact that she's a Hawaii resident, and therefore it is "her Government" that imposed the quarantine that makes a difference?
> 
> I might also ask, to the extent any of us own timeshares in Hawaii, it's it "our" government too? We depend on that government quite a bit, to provide fire and police, pave roads, ensure safe restaurants, maintain beaches, etc.



Yes it is because she is a Hawaii resident and CAN VOTE in Hawaii elections, therefore, it is HER GOVERNMENT which she has a voice in.  She would be taking advantage of the results of the 14 day quarantine on timeshare owners that her elected officials have implemented and are continue to implement.   

csodjd, this is accord with your previous quote on this thread,  "That's true. However, if you're going to raise taxes, as a politician, do you raise taxes on those that vote, or on those that cannot vote?"

Furthermore, the real message of my posts are that if the Hawaii Government covers their revenue deficit unproportionally on the backs of timeshare owners and tourists it would be adding insult to injury since the deficit was and is being expanded due to the 14 day quarantine.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Yes it is because she is a Hawaii resident and CAN VOTE in Hawaii elections, therefore, it is HER GOVERNMENT which she has a voice in.  She would be taking advantage of the results of the 14 day quarantine on timeshare owners that her elected officials have implemented and are continue to implement.
> 
> csodjd, this is accord with your previous quote on this thread,  "That's true. However, if you're going to raise taxes, as a politician, do you raise taxes on those that vote, or on those that cannot vote?"
> 
> Furthermore, the real message of my posts are that if the Hawaii Government covers their revenue deficit unproportionally on the backs of timeshare owners and tourists it would be adding insult to injury since the deficit was and is being expanded due to the 14 day quarantine.


I don't necessarily disagree with your premise, but as a practical matter, raising taxes on the ones that cannot afford it or pay it isn't very productive, or a path to reelection. Taxing things like flights into Hawaii, as they do in London, would be more effective and less controversial to voters, even if viewed by TS owners as unfair.


----------



## Yellowfin

In potential model for Hawaii, Alaska won’t require quarantine for visitors who get tested
					

They’ll be asked to provide the results when they land.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> In potential model for Hawaii, Alaska won’t require quarantine for visitors who get tested
> 
> 
> They’ll be asked to provide the results when they land.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com


That's the model that seems best. And on the backend they shore up their ability to trace and isolate any new infection that slips through.


----------



## Yellowfin

csodjd said:


> That's the model that seems best. And on the backend they shore up their ability to trace and isolate any new infection that slips through.


Lt. Gov. Josh Green : “Right now I’m still waiting on some of the details like how they’re going to get testing." 
Why do they need to wait for the details from Alaska in order to implement their own plan?


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> Lt. Gov. Josh Green : “Right now I’m still waiting on some of the details like how they’re going to get testing."
> Why do they need to wait for the details from Alaska in order to implement their own plan?


It's always nice when you can see what's working well and what's not, and not having to reinvent the wheel on the details. While the testing before flying is seemingly pretty straight forward (though there may be detail issues, like does it matter the test method used, or who performed it, or what if you have two tests and get different results, do you have to disclose ALL tests taken, etc.), testing upon arrival requires some infrastructure, and enforcing a quarantine also has challenges once tourists are allowed in.


----------



## Yellowfin

csodjd said:


> It's always nice when you can see what's working well and what's not, and not having to reinvent the wheel on the details. While the testing before flying is seemingly pretty straight forward (though there may be detail issues, like does it matter the test method used, or who performed it, or what if you have two tests and get different results, do you have to disclose ALL tests taken, etc.), testing upon arrival requires some infrastructure, and enforcing a quarantine also has challenges once tourists are allowed in.


It is also possible that the Lt. Gov. cannot convince others without first showing them proof that it is a viable solution.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> It is also possible that the Lt. Gov. cannot convince others without first showing them proof that it is a viable solution.


True. Hopefully it goes well, or he may convince them of the wrong thing.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I don't necessarily disagree with your premise, but as a practical matter, raising taxes on the ones that cannot afford it or pay it isn't very productive, or a path to reelection. Taxing things like flights into Hawaii, as they do in London, would be more effective and less controversial to voters, even if viewed by TS owners as unfair.



I don't have a problem with raising taxes on flights into Hawaii since everyone tourists as well as locals that travel would need to pay it.  What I would object to is raising property taxes on timeshares and hotels disproportionately higher to cover the revenue shortfall which was made worst by the 14 day quarantine on incoming travellers to the islands, and the TAT which locals who have benefited from the 14 day quarantine don't pay.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I don't have a problem with raising taxes on flights into Hawaii since everyone tourists as well as locals that travel would need to pay it.  What I would object to is raising property taxes on timeshares and hotels disproportionately higher to cover the revenue shortfall which was made worst by the 14 day quarantine on incoming travellers to the islands, and the TAT which locals who have benefited from the 14 day quarantine don't pay.


I'm not sure I see much distinction between taxing flights and taxing the location the people flying stay in. Flights tax each visitor a single amount irrespective of length of stay. Taxing hotels and timeshares taxes each family/visitor unit based on length of stay, or, in the case of timeshares, since that goes into MF, based on ownership type. That's all more form than substance.


----------



## Yellowfin

I am wondering if companies would  not reevaluate their long term plans in Hawaii given they may perceive the current developments not very business friendly.


----------



## cerralee

Well it looks like my grandson won’t be visiting with us this summer. We were hoping that travel back into Hawaii wouldn’t involve a quarantine period by July. Since it’s been extended till the end of June and who knows how long after it looks like the trip is a no go.  My daughter was planning on booking one ways in and getting the return sometime in July. She would be going back and then be able to work as she would be having grandma and grandpa providing childcare. The 14 day quarantine issue and how long it’s going to stay in play messes any planning up big time. He was really looking forward to this trip. He has a very small outside area and enjoys all things grandpa and grandma so much. He spent the last two summers with us and it’s all he’s talked about since he left last summer. He stays about eight weeks.  Hoping they come out with a testing option so something can be salvaged.


----------



## Yellowfin

one of the problems with  most Covid tests available to the public is that the results come back in few days. CVS for example mentions of their website that the results come back "typically" in 2-4 days. If, as expected, Hawaii demands a  test taken 3 days or less before the departure, the results may not come back in time for the trip


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> I am wondering if companies would  not reevaluate their long term plans in Hawaii given they may perceive the current developments not very business friendly.


Maybe, but the bigger threat I see is that if Hawaii is unwilling or unable to bring back tourism pretty quickly and get people working there may be many Hawaiians forced to leave the state and go where they can find a job, or simply find a job outside the tourism industry. Either way it can result in the tourism industry unable to find employees.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> one of the problems with  most Covid tests available to the public is that the results come back in few days. CVS for example mentions of their website that the results come back "typically" in 2-4 days. If, as expected, Hawaii demands a  test taken 3 days or less before the departure, the results may not come back in time for the trip


My daughter was tested last week at an urgent care in Los Angeles. Not the free County testing, we paid cash for it. Test was done Wednesday morning (nasopharynx swab). They promised results by Friday. They made it, barely... she got the results about 4:30pm on Friday. IF we were flying to Hawaii on Saturday, that would have been very stressful not knowing if we could go until late Friday.

However, if the Abbott rapid test shores itself up and produces good results, that gives an answer in 15 min or less (5 min for positive, 15 min for negative). That test/device is really the key.


----------



## Yellowfin

csodjd said:


> My daughter was tested last week at an urgent care in Los Angeles. Not the free County testing, we paid cash for it. Test was done Wednesday morning (nasopharynx swab). They promised results by Friday. They made it, barely... she got the results about 4:30pm on Friday. IF we were flying to Hawaii on Saturday, that would have been very stressful not knowing if we could go until late Friday.
> 
> However, if the Abbott rapid test shores itself up and produces good results, that gives an answer in 15 min or less (5 min for positive, 15 min for negative). That test/device is really the key.


Imagine if you fly Sunday or Monday, if they do not give the results during the weekend (I do not know if that is the case), it may be even more stressful.


----------



## Ken555

Too much speculation.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Yellowfin

no, we are simply discussing the problems they have to overcome.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I'm not sure I see much distinction between taxing flights and taxing the location the people flying stay in. Flights tax each visitor a single amount irrespective of length of stay. Taxing hotels and timeshares taxes each family/visitor unit based on length of stay, or, in the case of timeshares, since that goes into MF, based on ownership type. That's all more form than substance.



The issue is with raising timeshare and hotel property taxes disproportionately higher than other properties to make up the revenue deficit that has been exacerbated by the 14 day quarantine which has discouraged (if not in reality prevented) timeshare owners from using their property or raising the TAT disproportionately which is a tax that only timeshare and hotel occupants pay.   I feel that that would be adding insult to injury to do that.   

Taxing the flights to the islands is a tax that both visitors as well as residents that travel would pay.  

By the way it just came to me a few hours ago that I have advocating not raising the property taxes on timeshares and hotels and the TAT on timeshare and hotel stays for the benefit of other owners and tourists.   I don't own any timeshares in Hawaii and now that I own a condo in Waikiki so I wouldn't be spending extra on property taxes or TAT.  Therefore, I will leave this battle for others to fight or advocate for or against.  If they double the property tax and TAT on timeshare stays I won't be paying it, you will.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> The issue is with raising timeshare and hotel property taxes disproportionately higher than other properties to make up the revenue deficit that has been exacerbated by the 14 day quarantine which has discouraged (if not in reality prevented) timeshare owners from using their property or raising the TAT disproportionately which is a tax that only timeshare and hotel occupants pay.   I feel that that would be adding insult to injury to do that.
> 
> Taxing the flights to the islands is a tax that both visitors as well as residents that travel would pay.
> 
> By the way it just came to me a few hours ago that I have advocating not raising the property taxes on timeshares and hotels and the TAT on timeshare and hotel stays for the benefit of other owners and tourists.   I don't own any timeshares in Hawaii and now that I own a condo in Waikiki so I wouldn't be spending extra on property taxes or TAT.  Therefore, I will leave this battle for others to fight or advocate for or against.  If they double the property tax and TAT on timeshare stays I won't be paying it, you will.


All I know is that they need to start trying to bring tourism dollars back to the islands before unemployment money runs out and all their tourism industry employees are forced to leave Hawaii to find a job.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> All I know is that they need to start trying to bring tourism dollars back to the islands before unemployment money runs out and all their tourism industry employees are forced to leave Hawaii to find a job.



On that we totally agree.  I believe that testing of incoming arrivals is the major hang up right now.  I have been saying for months now that they should be shooting for July 1 to remove the 14 day quarantine to take advantage of the summer vacation peak vacation season.  I don't think they are on that page.  Perhaps they are focusing on a September 1 for a softer tourist opening with mostly adults.  We are still booked for both a late September and November return to Honolulu.  However, as summer starts with the 14 day quarantine still in place, we are looking more favorably on a November return.  I do have a concern about a fall resurgence of the virus around the world which may disturb a November plan.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> On that we totally agree.  I believe that testing of incoming arrivals is the major hang up right now.  I have been saying for months now that they should be shooting for July 1 to remove the 14 day quarantine to take advantage of the summer vacation peak vacation season.  I don't think they are on that page.  Perhaps they are focusing on a September 1 for a softer tourist opening with mostly adults.  We are still booked for both a late September and November return to Honolulu.  However, as summer starts with the 14 day quarantine still in place, we are looking more favorably on a November return.  I do have a concern about a fall resurgence of the virus around the world which may disturb a November plan.


I was looking at some data yesterday. Based on the Univ. of Washington data, Hawaii LEADS all states with the lowest per capita case rate and lowest per capita death rate. And that's despite about 30,000 people per day coming into the state throughout February and into early March. 

That to me suggests that Hawaii is not a particularly welcome environment for the Coronavirus, making spread more difficult. Warm weather. Lots of sun. Lots of outdoor activities and fewer large-scale indoor ones. The evidence shows that it becomes much easier to become infected when you are indoors and an infected person is filling the air with virus, creating a sufficient load to spread the infection. Same situation outdoors and the air doesn't have enough virus to create infection. They say, for instance, driving with a window open greatly reduces the risk of becoming infected by a contagious passenger compared with the windows closed. Hawaii is, in many ways, one big car with the windows open. 

I've got reservations starting Oct. 26, with a wedding to attend Nov. 7 in Maui. My best GUESS is that we'll be able to go to Hawaii, but there will be limits still in place on the size of gatherings and the wedding will have to be moved, again.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I was looking at some data yesterday. Based on the Univ. of Washington data, Hawaii LEADS all states with the lowest per capita case rate and lowest per capita death rate. And that's despite about 30,000 people per day coming into the state throughout February and into early March.
> 
> That to me suggests that Hawaii is not a particularly welcome environment for the Coronavirus, making spread more difficult. Warm weather. Lots of sun. Lots of outdoor activities and fewer large-scale indoor ones. The evidence shows that it becomes much easier to become infected when you are indoors and an infected person is filling the air with virus, creating a sufficient load to spread the infection. Same situation outdoors and the air doesn't have enough virus to create infection. They say, for instance, driving with a window open greatly reduces the risk of becoming infected by a contagious passenger compared with the windows closed. Hawaii is, in many ways, one big car with the windows open.
> 
> I've got reservations starting Oct. 26, with a wedding to attend Nov. 7 in Maui. My best GUESS is that we'll be able to go to Hawaii, but there will be limits still in place on the size of gatherings and the wedding will have to be moved, again.



That is some interesting thought about open air events.  We do go a few open air events and restaurants.  However, almost all of the live theaters, as well as the Doris Duke Theatre at the Honolulu Museum of Art;, the Blaisdale Concert Hall, Arena, and Exhibition Hall; and the Blue Note are indoor venues.  Also two of our favorite outdoor restauants closed in early 2020 Gordon Biersch and Bubba Gumps.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> That to me suggests that Hawaii is not a particularly welcome environment for the Coronavirus, making spread more difficult. Warm weather. Lots of sun. Lots of outdoor activities and fewer large-scale indoor ones.


A possible hypothesis.  To test that hypothesis Hawaii data should be compared with data from similar locales. 

Or  you could look at a country that has the appropriate diversity in climate.  Perhaps a country such as Ecuador, where COVID-19 is ravaging sunny and warm Guayaquil, with the bodies of victims literally rotting in the streets, while colder and temperate Quito is much less affected. 

I'm not saying you are incorrect.  What I am saying is the drawing inferences of this type require examining more than one example.  The typical process for doing this is to see a case such as Hawaii, develop a hypothesis based on the example, then identify other examples to test the hypothesis.


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> A possible hypothesis.  To test that hypothesis Hawaii data should be compared with data from similar locales.
> 
> Or  you could look at a country that has the appropriate diversity in climate.  Perhaps a country such as Ecuador, where COVID-19 is ravaging sunny and warm Guayaquil, with the bodies of victims literally rotting in the streets, while colder and temperate Quito is much less affected.
> 
> I'm not saying you are incorrect.  What I am saying is the drawing inferences of this type require examining more than one example.  The typical process for doing this is to see a case such as Hawaii, develop a hypothesis based on the example, then identify other examples to test the hypothesis.


Yes, I do understand science, data analysis, and epidemiology. (And no, you cannot compare it to an entirely different socio-economic environment, or a different standard of living. THAT is apples to oranges. And, yes, there are many confounding variables.) But all you're speaking of is the explanation for the data. I don't really care much about that in this context. The explanation I gave is entirely speculative to be sure. Nonetheless, whether it is due to space aliens guarding the Hawaiian islands, the color of the street signs, or something else, the fact is, Hawaii has had the lowest per capita infection rate and death rate in the United States. And given it's tourism and resulting relatively high exposure risk as a result, SOMETHING has resulted in less infection there than Wyoming, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, and all the other states, including those with relatively low population densities. A reasonable inference then is that, with reasonable protective/mitigating measures, it will likely remain one of the, if not the, safest places even when tourism returns.

Or, put another way, from a tourists standpoint, all other things being equal, I'd be more comfortable going to Hawaii on vacation than Charlotte, or New York, or almost anywhere else in the US.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> That is some interesting thought about open air events.  We do go a few open air events and restaurants.  However, almost all of the live theaters, as well as the Doris Duke Theatre at the Honolulu Museum of Art;, the Blaisdale Concert Hall, Arena, and Exhibition Hall; and the Blue Note are indoor venues.  Also two of our favorite outdoor restauants closed in early 2020 Gordon Biersch and Bubba Gumps.


Here is some info on the topic. The key is the dilution of the virus, keeping the viral exposure down.









						Op-ed: How to protect from coronavirus in your car
					

Keeping your car windows open a crack is an easy way to minimize the risk of COVID-19 transmission when you’re driving, according to experts from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. COVID-19…




					www.hsph.harvard.edu


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> The explanation I gave is entirely speculative to be sure.



Yup.



> Nonetheless, whether it is due to space aliens guarding the Hawaiian islands […]






Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> Yup.
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


You see my point. Putting aside the issues related to GETTING to Hawaii, inasmuch as Hawaii had the lowest case and death rates, and certainly had FAR more people pouring in from all over the world than Montana, North Dakota, and Idaho and the others like them had in February and early March, there is --something-- about Hawaii other than the exposure to infected people that resulted in the virus not spreading like it did in any other state in the US and therefore it's probably the safest place in the US to be even after tourism opens up.


----------



## Yellowfin

Travelers confused, uncertain about Alaska testing requirement
					

Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s announcement May 29 that Alaska will require COVID-19 tests for incoming travelers set the phones ringing at the Denali Lakeview Inn in Healy.




					www.alaskajournal.com


----------



## Yellowfin

Hawaii Tourism Finished? HTA Chief about to escape to Colorado - Hawaii News Online | Independent | Trusted
					

Hawaii News : Local with a global view with a focus on the Hawaii Travel and Tourism world.




					hawaiinews.online


----------



## PigsDad

"There’s simply no light at the end of the tunnel, they said."









						The Pandemic Is Proving Too Much For Some Big Island Businesses
					

Kona is emerging from weeks of being shutdown but already the business landscape is looking different.




					www.civilbeat.org
				




Kurt


----------



## Tamaradarann

Yellowfin said:


> Travelers confused, uncertain about Alaska testing requirement
> 
> 
> Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s announcement May 29 that Alaska will require COVID-19 tests for incoming travelers set the phones ringing at the Denali Lakeview Inn in Healy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.alaskajournal.com



This article is saying that Alaska is already doing what Hawaii is proposing to open up tourism to those outside of Hawaii.  I believe this can work except that there needs to be more teeth and enforcement in the 14 day quarantine.  There have been cases of people violating the quarantine with only a few visitors coming each day.  If the 14 quarantine is lifted for those that test negative for the virus, thousands will start to come each day it will be impossible to keep track of those that MUST be quarantined and there will be even more violators.

Perhaps Hawaii needs to establish a 14 day QUARANTINE AREA(would need to be on Oahu) that those that insist on coming without a negative test will be escorted to.   The Convention Center?  This doesn't need to be nice comfortable accomodations and it can charge for food and delivery service that will need to be brought in. (There are plenty of people who need jobs that can assist with the food delivery service.   Just like the existing 14 day quarantine it is not meant to encourage but to discourage people coming without a negative test. 
When we were on Oahu in March there was a ship that had the virus.   People were taken off the ship taht didn't have the virus and were escorted by private bus to the airport and put on a plane to go away.


----------



## Yellowfin

It appears to me that Hawaii's success in dealing with the virus may be its worst enemy in re-opening the islands for tourism. If their goal is to keep the virus to a minimum, it can be done with some measures in place. But in the absence of a stated goal, from their statements it seems  they want to eradicate the virus completely and never get it back and that  may be an impossible task since testing is not 100% accurate and it does not detect those that may catch the virus on the way to Hawaii. It is far more likely to catch the virus on the airport or on a plane than in your own home.


----------



## Yellowfin

Governor declines to set a date for reopening Hawaii tourism
					

In a candid, one-on-one interview with Hawaii News Now, Ige talked about why he’s holding off on setting any dates for rebooting tourism and why he expects foreign travelers may be coming here first.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## trexmdr

I think the problem will be getting people to come back to Hawaii because of the costs. 
my wife is from Japan so we go often as well as Maui where I own a Westin timeshare. I read that tourism in japan dropped 99% due to their own restrictions. They Meaning the government are contemplating picking up half the cost of travel and accommodations to stimulate tourism.
 I have a family of four. It’s already expensive enough for us to go from Los Angeles. If prices of air fare go up we just won’t go. Add all sorts of health checks and medical restrictions and I’ll just drive up the coast. 
if more people feel this way especially Asian visitors then tourism may be in for a tough time for a while.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

trexmdr said:


> I think the problem will be getting people to come back to Hawaii because of the costs.
> my wife is from Japan so we go often as well as Maui where I own a Westin timeshare. I read that tourism in japan dropped 99% due to their own restrictions. They Meaning the government are contemplating picking up half the cost of travel and accommodations to stimulate tourism.
> I have a family of four. It’s already expensive enough for us to go from Los Angeles. If prices of air fare go up we just won’t go. Add all sorts of health checks and medical restrictions and I’ll just drive up the coast.
> if more people feel this way especially Asian visitors then tourism may be in for a tough time for a while.


That sounds like what it was like when I was a boy, when airfare was so expensive that only "rich" people could fly.  So for everybody else, going away on vacation meant loading people in the car and heading somewhere within driving distance.  

My parents packed the six of us (M, D, four kids) into a 1954 Chevy Bel-Air.   Three in the front seat, three in the back seat, and about one-fourth of the back seat was packed with supplies.  Traveled from Minnesota to almost all of the National Parks in the Rocky Mountans.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Yellowfin said:


> Governor declines to set a date for reopening Hawaii tourism
> 
> 
> In a candid, one-on-one interview with Hawaii News Now, Ige talked about why he’s holding off on setting any dates for rebooting tourism and why he expects foreign travelers may be coming here first.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com




Interesting interview,  I suspect the pressure to reopen will grow as the economic problems grow.  My bet is there will be more federal stimulus, but i less certain about when and what that looks like.  
With the Hawaii state government is talking about employee furloughs to cut costs, and the expanded unemployment ending at the end of July, pressure will definitely build.  

I can understand why they may not want to set fixed dates or reopening,  but many states setup a plan based hitting certain milestones.  So far i have not seen something like that for Hawaii.


----------



## Ken555

1Kflyerguy said:


> Interesting interview, I suspect the pressure to reopen will grow as the economic problems grow. My bet is there will be more federal stimulus, but i less certain about when and what that looks like.
> With the Hawaii state government is talking about employee furloughs to cut costs, and the expanded unemployment ending at the end of July, pressure will definitely build.
> 
> I can understand why they may not want to set fixed dates or reopening, but many states setup a plan based hitting certain milestones. So far i have not seen something like that for Hawaii.



I agree. Hawaii’s standards may simply be based on requirements for other regions to meet in order to visit. This interview implies, as does earlier reports, that opening up will be based on the relative risk of importing the virus. So far, California and many other areas of the country would not likely meet any such standard while Japan, New Zealand, and others would. This makes sense to me. Obviously, the financial impact for the closure/quarantine is huge.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Yellowfin

I would be curious to know what the potential Japanese visitors think about travelling. On one hand, they may perceive Hawaii as low risk. On the other hand, the population in Japan is older and I assume they will not jump in the first plane to Hawaii since there is still a risk, especially on the airports and in the air. If the number of visitors does not reach a critical mass, it may not be sufficient for a lot of businesses to be profitable.


----------



## Ken555

Yellowfin said:


> I would be curious to know what the potential Japanese visitors think about travelling. On one hand, they may perceive Hawaii as low risk. On the other hand, the population in Japan is older and I assume they will not jump in the first plane to Hawaii since there is still a risk, especially on the airports and in the air. If the number of visitors does not reach a critical mass, it may not be sufficient for a lot of businesses to be profitable.



I don’t know why you focus only on Japan (you’ve done this in several posts) but... it’s not just Japan. I think everyone recognizes that anything less than a complete opening to all regions will result in financial hardship for Hawaii. Short of welcoming regions with continuing significant daily infection rates, what would you suggest?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Yellowfin

They have mentioned Japan in every interview I listened to. They think it may be an ideal country to start with because it brings 30% of the revenue with just 20% of the visitors. But because   75% of the population in Japan is over 65, they may not get the number of "safe" tourists they are hoping for in order to make a difference to the local businesses.


----------



## Ken555

This is relevant. 



			https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/4166/2020-01-29-hawaii-visitor-statistics-released-for-december-2019.pdf
		



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward

If I may slide slightly off-topic, expect a restdential real estate crash in Hawaii over the next 12+ months. If residents leave, thay can't take their homes with them. . . .


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Yellowfin said:


> They have mentioned Japan in every interview I listened to. They think it may be an ideal country to start with because it brings 30% of the revenue with just 20% of the visitors. But because   75% of the population in Japan is over 65, they may not get the number of "safe" tourists they are hoping for in order to make a difference to the local businesses.



Japan is the second largest market for Hawaii, after mainland US.

Currently Japan imposes a 14 day quarantine on people arriving from the US.  I think for Hawaii's travel bubble plan to work they would have convince Japan to drop that requirement, or shift to a selective quarantine.  Not sure how easy or difficult that might be,    All of the other "travel bubbles" they keep referring to are between countries, not between  specific cities or regions..


----------



## Tamaradarann

trexmdr said:


> I think the problem will be getting people to come back to Hawaii because of the costs.
> my wife is from Japan so we go often as well as Maui where I own a Westin timeshare. I read that tourism in japan dropped 99% due to their own restrictions. They Meaning the government are contemplating picking up half the cost of travel and accommodations to stimulate tourism.
> I have a family of four. It’s already expensive enough for us to go from Los Angeles. If prices of air fare go up we just won’t go. Add all sorts of health checks and medical restrictions and I’ll just drive up the coast.
> if more people feel this way especially Asian visitors then tourism may be in for a tough time for a while.



I don't think that the cost will be much more expensive to go to Hawaii than in the past unless the Government foolishly decides to raise the taxes that tourists primarily pay excessively.  However, if Hawaii doesn't provide some end date on the 14 day quarantine people will start to spend their money in other locations.  People usually plan vacations they don't decide a week before, lets go to Hawaii.  I think Hawaii has already lost the peak summer vacation period.  Next will be the peak Christmas/Winter period.  Hawaii relies on tourist dollars.  However, tourists can go other places for their summer vacations, their winter vacations, and all of their vacations.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> It appears to me that Hawaii's success in dealing with the virus may be its worst enemy in re-opening the islands for tourism. If their goal is to keep the virus to a minimum, it can be done with some measures in place. But in the absence of a stated goal, from their statements it seems  they want to eradicate the virus completely and never get it back and that  may be an impossible task since testing is not 100% accurate and it does not detect those that may catch the virus on the way to Hawaii. It is far more likely to catch the virus on the airport or on a plane than in your own home.


This article sort of speaks to that. 









						Las Vegas and Orlando are welcoming back tourists. Some ask: Why not Hawaii?
					

There’s no timetable for reopening the state's no. 1 industry, frustrating local businesses and unemployed workers.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				




What still confuses me is why there would be such concern that they can't handle a theoretical 300 cases/day, and why they think that number is even plausible. 

When they had 30,000 people per day coming in untested in February and into March, do they think they didn't have 300 cases coming in then? The health system handled it quite well. And that was before social distancing, masks, sanitizers, etc.

And they are NOT going to have anywhere near that 30k number coming in daily when they reopen, plus those coming will have some level, probably a high level, of screening (likely both testing and temperature checks) before entering. I don't care where you started your trip from, if you must get through pre-flight testing and temperature checks on arrival, it's fairly unlikely you'll be infected. Certainly less likely than in early March.

We forget that in the peak of the pandemic random surveillance testing in high-risk areas like NYC, LA, and Santa Clara only found ~5% (or less) were infected. So if 5% are infected (50 in 1000), and of that 5%, testing is 90% effective, that means very few travelers (5 in 1000) arriving would be infected. If 10,000 come in daily, that means 50 coming in. However, because infection rates appear to be notably higher in and among lower income individuals and those in elder care facilities, the true numbers would be far less than that. Not too many $35k/year workers are traveling to Hawaii this fall/winter!


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I don't think that the cost will be much more expensive to go to Hawaii than in the past unless the Government foolishly decides to raise the taxes that tourists primarily pay excessively.  However, if Hawaii doesn't provide some end date on the 14 day quarantine people will start to spend their money in other locations.  People usually plan vacations they don't decide a week before, lets go to Hawaii.  I think Hawaii has already lost the peak summer vacation period.  Next will be the peak Christmas/Winter period.  Hawaii relies on tourist dollars.  However, tourists can go other places for their summer vacations, their winter vacations, and all of their vacations.


With Vegas and Orlando/Disney opening up, that's a real concern. Even many of those that love Hawaii will say, well, we'll do that next year because they simply cannot make plans yet for Hawaii since Hawaii isn't giving people any ability to schedule a trip.


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> I agree. Hawaii’s standards may simply be based on requirements for other regions to meet in order to visit. This interview implies, as does earlier reports, that opening up will be based on the relative risk of importing the virus. So far, California and many other areas of the country would not likely meet any such standard while Japan, New Zealand, and others would. This makes sense to me. Obviously, the financial impact for the closure/quarantine is huge.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Seems to me it's hard and lends itself to easy miscalculation to rely on broad numbers based on new cases. First, there is the obvious: new cases is in significant part a function of testing. Hospitalizations is a better measure of relative risk as that's independent of testing. Second, infection risk is not evenly spread among a population. The highest risk people - elder care facilities and low wage workers, are also very unlikely to be traveling to Hawaii in 2020. And then, of course, there is population/per capita measures. The ENTIRE population of NZ (one of my favorite countries in the world BTW) is half of the city of Los Angeles. 

And then there is one last thing that I hope they'll consider. Hawaii is part of America. I think they should bend over backwards to do the best they can for Americans. The idea that they will welcome in those from foreign countries but not those from America is, to me, troubling. Hawaii received about $4B in COVID relief money from the Federal government. They are getting about $21M for testing. Would be nice to use that to test American's. An analysis of 2010 data showed that Hawaii received the 4th most amount of Federal funding of all states per capita relative to the amount paid in. 

So, even though it may be more challenging, I believe Hawaii should be trying to figure out how to get American's into Hawaii.


----------



## amy241

csodjd said:


> Seems to me it's hard and lends itself to easy miscalculation to rely on broad numbers based on new cases. First, there is the obvious: new cases is in significant part a function of testing. Hospitalizations is a better measure of relative risk as that's independent of testing. Second, infection risk is not evenly spread among a population. The highest risk people - elder care facilities and low wage workers, are also very unlikely to be traveling to Hawaii in 2020. And then, of course, there is population/per capita measures. The ENTIRE population of NZ (one of my favorite countries in the world BTW) is half of the city of Los Angeles.
> 
> And then there is one last thing that I hope they'll consider. Hawaii is part of America. I think they should bend over backwards to do the best they can for Americans. The idea that they will welcome in those from foreign countries but not those from America is, to me, troubling. Hawaii received about $4B in COVID relief money from the Federal government. They are getting about $21M for testing. Would be nice to use that to test American's. An analysis of 2010 data showed that Hawaii received the 4th most amount of Federal funding of all states per capita relative to the amount paid in.
> 
> So, even though it may be more challenging, I believe Hawaii should be trying to figure out how to get American's into Hawaii.


It troubles me too that they would not create a way for Americans to travel to Hawaii. And you wouldn’t believe the public comments on articles on Beat of Hawaii on this issue. Many people are simply outraged that they are not putting a plan into place to allow Americans to travel there and would instead give priority to Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Korea.









						Hawaii Public Relations Nightmare as Media Frenzy Fuels Unrest
					

Global news outlets raise big concerns for Hawaii visitors.



					beatofhawaii.com
				












						Hawaii Visitors and Residents Whipsaw in 1,000 Comments
					

Hawaii still on a wild ride.



					beatofhawaii.com


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> Seems to me it's hard and lends itself to easy miscalculation to rely on broad numbers based on new cases. First, there is the obvious: new cases is in significant part a function of testing. Hospitalizations is a better measure of relative risk as that's independent of testing. Second, infection risk is not evenly spread among a population. The highest risk people - elder care facilities and low wage workers, are also very unlikely to be traveling to Hawaii in 2020. And then, of course, there is population/per capita measures. The ENTIRE population of NZ (one of my favorite countries in the world BTW) is half of the city of Los Angeles.
> 
> And then there is one last thing that I hope they'll consider. Hawaii is part of America. I think they should bend over backwards to do the best they can for Americans. The idea that they will welcome in those from foreign countries but not those from America is, to me, troubling. Hawaii received about $4B in COVID relief money from the Federal government. They are getting about $21M for testing. Would be nice to use that to test American's. An analysis of 2010 data showed that Hawaii received the 4th most amount of Federal funding of all states per capita relative to the amount paid in.
> 
> So, even though it may be more challenging, I believe Hawaii should be trying to figure out how to get American's into Hawaii.


As we are now seeing in the State of Washington, the decision about when to end control measures is a political decision, not a scientific decision.  As I have posted previously, the pandemic will not end when medical professionals decide its over. It will end when as a society says we've had enough and we are willing to live with the whatever the risks are. 

It's interesting the decision is being made, though, not by the "right-wing" red state governments.  It's being made on the other side of the political spectrum, with George Floyd actions.  Which seems to have put the blue state political leaders into a conundrum, leading them to decide that maybe social distancing isn't so necessary after all.


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> As we are now seeing in the State of Washington, the decision about when to end control measures is a political decision, not a scientific decision.  As I have posted previously, the pandemic will not end when medical professionals decide its over. It will end when as a society says we've had enough and we are willing to live with the whatever the risks are.
> 
> It's interesting the decision is being made, though, not by the "right-wing" red state governments.  It's being made on the other side of the political spectrum, with George Floyd actions.  Which seems to have put the blue state political leaders into a conundrum, leading them to decide that maybe social distancing isn't so necessary after all.


Well, as a medical professional, I'd say its way too early to know the impact of the lack of social distancing over the past couple of weeks. There's a bit of data, as the number of new cases has skyrocketed in a few states like Florida, Texas and Arizona, and some harder to recognize ones like Arkansas. But the meaningful measure will be hospitalizations, and that lags 10-25 days behind infection. My guess is that there won't be a big spike in that because the people being infected are not the high risk groups (elderly), and health care workers are better protected now. But, we'll see.

The good news is that hospitals and health care workers are far better prepared today than they were in March. When a new infection arrives, leaders (medical and political) need to risk over-reaction because they don't know what they are dealing with, and err on the side of safety is necessary. Nobody knew back then that about 1/3 of cases were asymptomatic. Nursing homes were entirely unprepared. Etc. Not so today.

I don't think the Gov. of Hawaii is making a political decision to favor NZ, Aus, Japan and SK. It is an (imo unnecessary and inappropriate) extremely conservative decision based on science and health, but not necessarily based on the fact that June/July is not March/April. I believe we can generally open up business, etc., because of what we know today, not because the virus is gone.


----------



## PigsDad

csodjd said:


> What still confuses me is why there would be such concern that they can't handle a theoretical 300 cases/day, and why they think that number is even plausible.
> 
> When they had 30,000 people per day coming in untested in February and into March, do they think they didn't have 300 cases coming in then? The health system handled it quite well. And that was before social distancing, masks, sanitizers, etc.
> 
> And they are NOT going to have anywhere near that 30k number coming in daily when they reopen, plus those coming will have some level, probably a high level, of screening (likely both testing and temperature checks) before entering. I don't care where you started your trip from, if you must get through pre-flight testing and temperature checks on arrival, it's fairly unlikely you'll be infected. Certainly less likely than in early March.
> 
> We forget that in the peak of the pandemic random surveillance testing in high-risk areas like NYC, LA, and Santa Clara only found ~5% (or less) were infected. So if 5% are infected (50 in 1000), and of that 5%, testing is 90% effective, that means very few travelers (5 in 1000) arriving would be infected. If 10,000 come in daily, that means 50 coming in. However, because infection rates appear to be notably higher in and among lower income individuals and those in elder care facilities, the true numbers would be far less than that. Not too many $35k/year workers are traveling to Hawaii this fall/winter!


Somewhere along the line, for many of those in authority (and many on TUG as well), the narrative for the shutdowns changed from the prevention of overwhelming the medical system to preventing any CV-19 transmission at all.  Hawaii is the most extreme example of that mind shift.  And as expected, most of those calling for continued shutdowns are older, more financially secure, and generally not in the workforce.  You don't see / hear too many 20- or 30-somethings supporting the continuation of the shutdowns / restrictions.

Kurt


----------



## Yellowfin

Forget about visitors, the pace of opening the businesses is so slow, one would wonder what is the science behind it. They just announced that the restaurants on O'ahu will be allowed to open in 2 weeks. Why two weeks and not one? What difference does it make from a health care point of view? Probably none since they have so few cases. But if you are a business struggling to stay afloat, every additional day must feel like an eternity.


----------



## slip

Yellowfin said:


> Forget about visitors, the pace of opening the businesses is so slow, one would wonder what is the science behind it. They just announced that the restaurants on O'ahu will be allowed to open in 2 weeks. Why two weeks and not one? What difference does it make from a health care point of view? Probably none since they have so few cases. But if you are a business struggling to stay afloat, every additional day must feel like an eternity.



Restaurants open today on Oahu but they announced it about two weeks ago.


----------



## Yellowfin

slip said:


> Restaurants open today on Oahu but they announced it about two weeks ago.


correct, I meant bars, sorry about that.








						Cheers: Bars on O'ahu re-open
					






					www.kitv.com


----------



## DeniseM

Here's is something that I don't see anyone factoring in:  You know who is eager to jump on a plane and go to Hawaii ASAP?  *Risk Takers*.  People who are less concerned about the Coronavirus, and may be cavalier about taking any precautions against catching it - or passing it.  I don't want to sit next to that person on the plane.  YMMV


----------



## Tamaradarann

Yellowfin said:


> Forget about visitors, the pace of opening the businesses is so slow, one would wonder what is the science behind it. They just announced that the restaurants on O'ahu will be allowed to open in 2 weeks. Why two weeks and not one? What difference does it make from a health care point of view? Probably none since they have so few cases. But if you are a business struggling to stay afloat, every additional day must feel like an eternity.



I agree it seems that since the existing people in Hawaii have really no virus that you could open everything up for them right now.  The real challenge is going to be when you add tourists in droves when you no longer have the 14 day quarantine.  It seems to me that if you opened up everything right now for the existing people perhaps the number of cases and hospitalizations would go up in single didgit numbers.  So why not do it NOW.

However, unless you have very strict rules and efficient testing when you remove the 14 day quarantine and have thousands of tourists a day coming in the number of cases will go up in double didgit numbers or perhaps even triple didgit numbers.  I concur with the caution  on the removal of the 14 day quarantine, but I don't see dragging on opening up for the existing Hawaii population.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

The 4 Planned Phases Of Hawaii Restarting Tourism - Your Mileage May Vary
					

We’ve written before about how cautious Hawaii has been in allowing tourism to start back up. With just 653 confirmed cases of COVID-19, they tie, at 17, with Montana and…




					yourmileagemayvary.net


----------



## PigsDad

DeniseM said:


> Here's is something that I don't see anyone factoring in:  You know who is eager to jump on a plane and go to Hawaii ASAP?  *Risk Takers*.


That's one opinion.  Another is that it is the *logical thinkers* who do not get caught up in the irrational fear.  The health risk to a younger (<40) person is insignificant, and on the order of the health risk of driving to the airport.

Kurt


----------



## DeniseM

Call it whatever you want:  IMNSHO, the first visitors to visit Hawaii may have a higher incidence of C-19, because they may not feel that they are at risk to get the Coronavirus, and therefore, may not have been taking precautions before their trip.


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## Yellowfin

One can also make the opposite argument.  The islands are virtually C-19 free  at this moment so better to travel now before more visitors can bring more risk.


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## DeniseM

I'm not worried about catching it from someone who lives in Hawaii - I'm worried about sitting next to PigsDad on the plane!


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## T_R_Oglodyte

DeniseM said:


> Here's is something that I don't see anyone factoring in:  You know who is eager to jump on a plane and go to Hawaii ASAP?  *Risk Takers*.  People who are less concerned about the Coronavirus, and may be cavalier about taking any precautions against catching it - or passing it.  I don't want to sit next to that person on the plane.  YMMV


I'm not sure I would agree with that at all Denise.  I offer myself as a counter example.  I am definitely in the cautious crowd - not obsessively so.  But definitely adhering to protocols to minimize potential exposure.  And when we resume travel, Hawaii is the FIRST place we would head to.  And that's in large measure because Hawaii would be a low risk destination.  And I would feel even more comfortable, knowing that I would not be bringing the virus with me.  I feel incredibly more nervous about our MX travel reservations next Feb as compared with Hawaii in August.

****************

But I think the whole thing is breaking down anyway, at least on the mainland.  Until recently it was the so-called red staters and right-wingers who were generally decried for not practicing social distancing.  Now the George Floyd demonstrations have swmped things like Memorial Day at Lake of the Ozarks by orders of magnitude.  

We now have medical professionals saying that social distancing isn't necessary during the George Floyd demonstrations.  I think it's going to be very hard for government and medical professionals to say that the right of assembly is suspended except in circumstances where we concur with the politics.









						After months of pleading for social distancing, health officials support protests. Seattle Black Lives Matter warns of dangers
					

Infectious disease experts at the University of Washington say the protests are "vital to the national public health." The local branch of Black Lives Matter is being far more cautious, and has published a safety guide for protesters.




					www.seattletimes.com


----------



## DeniseM

I also think Hawaii is a very safe destination (at least for now), but personally, I wouldn't consider leaving the country.  However, even with a safe destination, I'm quite concerned about the spread of C-19 on airplanes.  It's going to be really interesting to see what happens when travel opens up, but we will wait and see how things go, before we get on another airplane.  YMMV


----------



## Yellowfin

Then the question is will you ever travel again? Even if you wait for a vaccine, it is never effective on everyone and you will not know if you are immune or not. Not to mention, we may have something else to worry about at that time.


----------



## DeniseM

I would not get on an airplane _under the current conditions_, so only time will tell.  However, we own a vacation home in another state that we can drive to, so we do have that option.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

DeniseM said:


> However, even with a safe destination, I'm quite concerned about the spread of C-19 on airplanes.


I would be particularly worried if the plane carried passengers who just spent a week in social gatherings, with people tightly packed together, screaming, shouting, hyperventilating, and doing all manner of other activities that have been identified with superspreader events, except all of these events have been occurring on a massive scale.  If the risks are as great has have been painted by medical professionals, over the next three to four weeks we should see a surge in corona virus cases that will make March and April look like child's play.

That is if the risks are as great as we have been told they are. If the outbreak doesn't occur, the credibility of the case for protective measures ought to collapse. And if it does occur then officials can say, "We told you so."


----------



## DeniseM

Hawaii coronavirus cases rise by 9 to total 664; tally includes 3 older infections, officials say
					

Hawaii Department of Health officials said today that the state’s tally of coronavirus cases has risen to 664, up nine, including three older infections that had not been counted previously.




					www.staradvertiser.com
				




There are 5 new cases on Oahu, which is a bit of an increase, and no new cases on the other islands.  I wonder if any of the new cases were at the unscanctioned beach parties last weekend? I also wonder of the military bases are included in the totals?


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> Here's is something that I don't see anyone factoring in:  You know who is eager to jump on a plane and go to Hawaii ASAP?  *Risk Takers*.  People who are less concerned about the Coronavirus, and may be cavalier about taking any precautions against catching it - or passing it.  I don't want to sit next to that person on the plane.  YMMV


I think that's true about people that say they won't wear a mask, and I've advised many of my clients that they don't want to have those people as patients because they are the ones least likely to be taking precautions generally, and pose the greatest risk. 

I'm not sure that extrapolates to people that will take a COVID test and fly for 6 or more hours with a face mask. Those are people simply believing that, with proper care and precautions, the risk is not substantial and that it's too easy to allow fear to become irrational. I believe in caution and care. But not in allowing fear to control me. If I did, the fear of terrorism alone would stop me from traveling.


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> I would be particularly worried if the plane carried passengers who just spent a week in social gatherings, with people tightly packed together, screaming, shouting, hyperventilating, and doing all manner of other activities that have been identified with superspreader events, except all of these events have been occurring on a massive scale.  If the risks are as great has have been painted by medical professionals, over the next three to four weeks we should see a surge in corona virus cases that will make March and April look like child's play.
> 
> That is if the risks are as great as we have been told they are. If the outbreak doesn't occur, the credibility of the case for protective measures ought to collapse. And if it does occur then officials can say, "We told you so."


I believe it is more complex than that, because those engaging in that behavior are also on the low risk side of the spectrum for complications and hospitalization from COVID. They are generally younger, for one thing, and that alone will offer considerable protection. 

That said, it appears we ARE seeing a surge of considerable note in several states. See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and note Texas, Florida, Arizona, Michigan (can that data be correct, 5300 new cases today?, Arkansas, and a few other states). Wednesday, 20k new cases in the US. Yesterday, 22k. Today, 28k so far. Is that the beginning of a new wave of cases? We're now 2 weeks out from Memorial weekend.


----------



## slip

DeniseM said:


> Hawaii coronavirus cases rise by 9 to total 664; tally includes 3 older infections, officials say
> 
> 
> Hawaii Department of Health officials said today that the state’s tally of coronavirus cases has risen to 664, up nine, including three older infections that had not been counted previously.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There are 5 new cases on Oahu, which is a bit of an increase, and no new cases on the other islands.  I wonder if any of the new cases were at the unscanctioned beach parties last weekend? I also wonder of the military bases are included in the totals?



The military bases are not included in the totals. Also, in the past when there were clusters, they usually said where the clusters were from on the island.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> I also think Hawaii is a very safe destination (at least for now), but personally, I wouldn't consider leaving the country.  However, even with a safe destination, I'm quite concerned about the spread of C-19 on airplanes.  It's going to be really interesting to see what happens when travel opens up, but we will wait and see how things go, before we get on another airplane.  YMMV
> 
> View attachment 21713


I'm scheduled to fly in August. Chose to pay for First, even though my status would likely get me upgraded from economy, because I wanted to be sure and to have a window seat. I see possibly two people, one next to me and one behind me, that would be potential spreaders. I don't view that as high risk. I did read that it is best to keep your air flow on max, which blows airborne virus straight to the ground. Also, airplanes I believe operate with negative pressure, so the air is actually quite clean.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> Also, airplanes I believe operate with negative pressure, so the air is actually quite clean.


Minor nit - cabins are positive pressure (otherwise the passengers would asphyxiate).  But the point is the same - they are positively vented, by HEPA-filtered air being  pumped into the cabin.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> I believe it is more complex than that, because those engaging in that behavior are also on the low risk side of the spectrum for complications and hospitalization from COVID. They are generally younger, for one thing, and that alone will offer considerable protection.


They might be on the low side for complications, but wouldn't they still be carriers and transmitters?  And perhaps even more lethal because they wouldn't know they were carriers and wouldn't take precautions to prevent infecting others.


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> They might be on the low side for complications, but wouldn't they still be carriers and transmitters?  And perhaps even more lethal because they wouldn't know they were carriers and wouldn't take precautions to prevent infecting others.


What I was referring to was what might show up in the data as a result of protests and parties at the pool. Because "new cases" is not a reliable measure since it is dependent on testing (and the risk that politics is resulting in under reporting as is reported in Florida and Georgia), the best data for an outbreak is hospitalizations. But, if the exposure is not across a normal spectrum of the community, that too may under count because young infected people are less likely to require hospitalization than an older person. I was not referring at all to the risk of infection from them. Only looking at data to determine the impact of careless behavior during protests and in locations like we all saw in the Ozarks.

That said, no, not more "lethal." Lethal is not a function of the nature of the person that infects you. We know it is a function of the health and physiology of the person being infected. Diabetic? Suppressed or hyperactive immune system? Obese? Age.

But I believe, myself, that outcome is also related to the viral load at time of infection. I believe the reason so many seemingly healthy health care providers were infected and got sick was the high viral load of their initial infection which overwhelmed their otherwise healthy immune system, allowing the infection to "win." That is, the immune system was too far behind and could not control the viral replication. I believe many (all?) of the asymptomatic cases arise where the person was infected but with a sufficiently small viral load that their immune system was able to get out in front of and suppress the infection before the virus replication was sufficient to cause symptoms. Those with weak immune systems or comorbidities (especially vascular related) could handle less initial viral load. But, that's my theory. So, under my theory, to protect ourselves, we not only want to try and avoid infected people, but we also want to minimize viral load even if there are infected people around. For instance, being outdoors or in open spaces -- much less virus density in the air. Talking instead of yelling or singing -- much less virus density in the air. In an airplane, keep your vent on high -- that will greatly reduce the ability of virus buildup in the air around you. Small area with poor ventilation -- lots of virus accumulation in the air, and high risk of exposure to large viral load.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> What I was referring to was what might show up in the data as a result of protests and parties at the pool. Because "new cases" is not a reliable measure since it is dependent on testing (and the risk that politics is resulting in under reporting as is reported in Florida and Georgia), the best data for an outbreak is hospitalizations. But, if the exposure is not across a normal spectrum of the community, that too may under count because young infected people are less likely to require hospitalization than an older person. I was not referring at all to the risk of infection from them. Only looking at data to determine the impact of careless behavior during protests and in locations like we all saw in the Ozarks.
> 
> That said, no, not more "lethal." Lethal is not a function of the nature of the person that infects you. We know it is a function of the health and physiology of the person being infected. Diabetic? Suppressed or hyperactive immune system? Obese? Age.
> 
> But I believe, myself, that outcome is also related to the viral load at time of infection. I believe the reason so many seemingly healthy health care providers were infected and got sick was the high viral load of their initial infection which overwhelmed their otherwise healthy immune system, allowing the infection to "win." That is, the immune system was too far behind and could not control the viral replication. I believe many (all?) of the asymptomatic cases arise where the person was infected but with a sufficiently small viral load that their immune system was able to get out in front of and suppress the infection before the virus replication was sufficient to cause symptoms. Those with weak immune systems or comorbidities (especially vascular related) could handle less initial viral load. But, that's my theory. So, under my theory, to protect ourselves, we not only want to try and avoid infected people, but we also want to minimize viral load even if there are infected people around. For instance, being outdoors or in open spaces -- much less virus density in the air. Talking instead of yelling or singing -- much less virus density in the air. In an airplane, keep your vent on high -- that will greatly reduce the ability of virus buildup in the air around you. Small area with poor ventilation -- lots of virus accumulation in the air, and high risk of exposure to large viral load.


Good points.  So if the transmission is through carriers who don't require hospitalization (or even detection), allowing a couple of cycles, increasing hospitalizations would likely appear in about four to six weeks.


----------



## JIMinNC

DeniseM said:


> Here's is something that I don't see anyone factoring in:  You know who is eager to jump on a plane and go to Hawaii ASAP?  *Risk Takers*.  People who are less concerned about the Coronavirus, and may be cavalier about taking any precautions against catching it - or passing it.  I don't want to sit next to that person on the plane.  YMMV





PigsDad said:


> That's one opinion.  Another is that it is the *logical thinkers* who do not get caught up in the irrational fear.  The health risk to a younger (<40) person is insignificant, and on the order of the health risk of driving to the airport.
> 
> Kurt



Even for those of us who are somewhat older, the sheer numbers - like those discussed by @csodjd in post #460 above - show that the probability of any one person contacting the virus on trip to Hawaii is relatively low. It's not zero, of course, so there is *some* risk, but I don't see deciding to fly somewhere makes someone a big risk taker given the real probabilities involved here. A significant percentage of the confirmed cases, and an even more significant percentage of the deaths worldwide have come from 1) nursing and elder care facilities, 2) high density lower income housing, 3) high density workplaces like meat processing facilities, 4) healthcare workers, and other similar situations where people live or work in close proximity. If you are not involved in settings like those, the risk of contracting the virus is even less than the raw stats might indicate. I have read nothing about major outbreaks tied to air travel (isolated cases yes, but major outbreaks have not been traced there as far as I have been able to find). So it doesn't seem to me that someone has to be a big risk taker to evaluate the numbers objectively and then conclude that travel is an acceptable, reasonable risk.


----------



## JIMinNC

csodjd said:


> But I believe, myself, that outcome is also related to the viral load at time of infection. I believe the reason so many seemingly healthy health care providers were infected and got sick was the high viral load of their initial infection which overwhelmed their otherwise healthy immune system, allowing the infection to "win." That is, the immune system was too far behind and could not control the viral replication. I believe many (all?) of the asymptomatic cases arise where the person was infected but with a sufficiently small viral load that their immune system was able to get out in front of and suppress the infection before the virus replication was sufficient to cause symptoms. Those with weak immune systems or comorbidities (especially vascular related) could handle less initial viral load. But, that's my theory. So, under my theory, to protect ourselves, we not only want to try and avoid infected people, but we also want to minimize viral load even if there are infected people around. For instance, being outdoors or in open spaces -- much less virus density in the air. Talking instead of yelling or singing -- much less virus density in the air. In an airplane, keep your vent on high -- that will greatly reduce the ability of virus buildup in the air around you. Small area with poor ventilation -- lots of virus accumulation in the air, and high risk of exposure to large viral load.



I've often wondered about just this very point myself. Could the amount of virus each person is exposed to be a key variable that determines how severely they are impacted? Taking it one step further, if exposure does indeed result in some level of future immunity, did we make a mistake by keeping people completely locked down and thus limiting the number of people that get those low dose infections, thus leaving more people susceptible to more serious infection in the future?


----------



## PigsDad

JIMinNC said:


> I've often wondered about just this very point myself. Could the amount of virus each person is exposed to be a key variable that determines how severely they are impacted? Taking it one step further, if exposure does indeed result in some level of future immunity, did we make a mistake by keeping people completely locked down and thus limiting the number of people that get those low dose infections, thus leaving more people susceptible to more serious infection in the future?


I read a couple of articles (sorry, don't have references right now) that were theorizing the same basic concept that you and @csodjd mentioned regarding viral load and its affect on contracting CV-19 and the severity of a resulting infection (or of even getting an infection).  Very interesting, and correlates with how many other infections caused by viruses "work", for lack of a better word.  I would even take it a little step further beyond the last question you raised in this post:  are people who are getting low dose exposures to CV-19 developing a level of immunity to the infection?  Isn't that the basic concept behind vaccines?  I'm sure all of this is being looked at and tested, and it will be interesting when the studies come out with verified results.

Kurt


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> I've often wondered about just this very point myself. Could the amount of virus each person is exposed to be a key variable that determines how severely they are impacted? Taking it one step further, if exposure does indeed result in some level of future immunity, did we make a mistake by keeping people completely locked down and thus limiting the number of people that get those low dose infections, thus leaving more people susceptible to more serious infection in the future?


That raises a veritable pandora's box of uncertainties, which starts with the question, is the immunity dose-dependent? Do you get more immunity (longer, or stronger) from more disease? The goal of a vaccine is to impart a known immunity, both in terms of how long it lasts and how complete it protects you. They can titrate and experiment with vaccines to find the best outcome. But if you're looking for natural immunity, if it is dose-dependent, that's problematic. You have all kinds of degrees of immunity and nobody knows what they have or don't have. 

I'm no immunologist, and it's been many years since I had my course in immunology. I can deal intellectually with the concept of viral load as it relates to pathological response. But how that then relates to immunity is beyond my reach. It's just fraught with uncertainty.


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Good points.  So if the transmission is through carriers who don't require hospitalization (or even detection), allowing a couple of cycles, increasing hospitalizations would likely appear in about four to six weeks.


Give or take. About 10 or so days to symptoms. Typically another 5-15 before they require hospitalization.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> Even for those of us who are somewhat older, the sheer numbers - like those discussed by @csodjd in post #460 above - show that the probability of any one person contacting the virus on trip to Hawaii is relatively low. It's not zero, of course, so there is *some* risk, but I don't see deciding to fly somewhere makes someone a big risk taker given the real probabilities involved here. A significant percentage of the confirmed cases, and an even more significant percentage of the deaths worldwide have come from 1) nursing and elder care facilities, 2) high density lower income housing, 3) high density workplaces like meat processing facilities, 4) healthcare workers, and other similar situations where people live or work in close proximity. If you are not involved in settings like those, the risk of contracting the virus is even less than the raw stats might indicate. I have read nothing about major outbreaks tied to air travel (isolated cases yes, but major outbreaks have not been traced there as far as I have been able to find). So it doesn't seem to me that someone has to be a big risk taker to evaluate the numbers objectively and then conclude that travel is an acceptable, reasonable risk.


Or put more simply -- though there were many infected people flying all over the place, we've not heard of any airplanes full of people catching it, or even of significant clusters (10 people near a sick person or something like that). But the tracing on that would be difficult, so not hearing of it doesn't mean it hasn't happened.


----------



## Yellowfin

DeniseM said:


> Hawaii coronavirus cases rise by 9 to total 664; tally includes 3 older infections, officials say
> 
> 
> Hawaii Department of Health officials said today that the state’s tally of coronavirus cases has risen to 664, up nine, including three older infections that had not been counted previously.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There are 5 new cases on Oahu, which is a bit of an increase, and no new cases on the other islands.  I wonder if any of the new cases were at the unscanctioned beach parties last weekend? I also wonder of the military bases are included in the totals?


Most likely they are not related to those parties since it takes much longer from the transmission until the data becomes public.


----------



## Yellowfin

It seems that the virus is becoming less prevalent in the United States, not just in Italy. I think Hawaii will have to take this into consideration. 

“All signs that we have available right now show that this virus is less prevalent than it was weeks ago,” said Dr. Donald Yealy, the chair of emergency medicine at UPMC.

Yealy further said, among people who test positive, “the total amount of the virus the patient has is much less than in the earlier stages of the pandemic.”

“We see all of this as evidence that COVID-19 cases are less severe than when this first started,” he said. 

“Your risk of getting into a car accident if you go back and forth across the turnpike in Pennsylvania is greater than your risk of being positive for asymptomatic COVID-19 infection,” he said. “This should give you some reassurance that the risk of catching COVID-19 … from someone who doesn’t even know they have the infection, in our communities, is very small.”









						Pa. doctor says coronavirus has become ‘less prevalent’ and isn’t making people as sick
					

Dr. Yealy said there's less chance of getting it from someone who's asymptomatic than of having an accident on the turnpike.




					www.syracuse.com


----------



## DeniseM

Lots of good points made above.  But my risk tolerance is low, so I will sit back and let others blaze the trails, and evaluate the results, before I get on an airplane. again. YMMV


----------



## rickandcindy23

Still getting on an airplane in August to Maui, if Hawaii will permit us to go 8/23-9/6.  I will not go and quarantine for the entire trip.  Just hoping Hawaii opens up.  We both had coronavirus 3/1 for about 5-6 days, start to finish, and we have immunity because we were tested.  But if I am a carrier, I could hurt others, so I will still always wear a mask.  I have N-95 masks Rick had to buy as an EMT.  They bought their own back then.  We have a full box of those things and a partial box.


----------



## csodjd

rickandcindy23 said:


> Still getting on an airplane in August to Maui, if Hawaii will permit us to go 8/23-9/6.  I will not go and quarantine for the entire trip.  Just hoping Hawaii opens up.  We both had coronavirus 3/1 for about 5-6 days, start to finish, and we have immunity because we were tested.  But if I am a carrier, I could hurt others, so I will still always wear a mask.  I have N-95 masks Rick had to buy as an EMT.  They bought their own back then.  We have a full box of those things and a partial box.


I don't believe any study has established that you have immunity. When you say you were tested, I assume you're speaking of the presence of antibodies. It seems likely and the experts believe that's likely the case, but it is not certain until it is tested by a quality study. In addition, they have no idea how long the immunity, if you have it, lasts. So you should still be cautious, not only of others, but of yourselves until there is clear proof and you know how long it lasts.


----------



## DeniseM

Eight new Coronavirus cases on Oahu - it looks like opening things up is increasing the cases of Cornavirus. 








						Hawaii coronavirus cases climb by 9 for second straight day, raising statewide total to 673
					

Hawaii Department of Health officials said today that the state’s tally of coronavirus cases has risen to 673, up nine from Friday.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## Luanne

DeniseM said:


> Eight new Coronavirus cases on Oahu - it looks like opening things up is increasing the cases of Cornavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii coronavirus cases climb by 9 for second straight day, raising statewide total to 673
> 
> 
> Hawaii Department of Health officials said today that the state’s tally of coronavirus cases has risen to 673, up nine from Friday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com


As with other states it could also be they are doing more testing?


----------



## DeniseM

Good point, Luanne - I hope that's it.  I've been concerned about the fall out from the big unsanctioned beach parties that they had Memorial Day weekend.


----------



## slip

DeniseM said:


> Good point, Luanne - I hope that's it.  I've been concerned about the fall out from the big unsanctioned beach parties that they had Memorial Day weekend.



I think we have to wait another week to see if that was an issue. It’s too early to tell with the incubation period.

Restaurants opened yesterday to dine-in with restrictions. I was able to get a haircut today. First time in over 5 months. Boy, does that feel good. Just in time with the weather getting warmer.


----------



## JIMinNC

Activity increases, cases will go up. Even in Hawaii. Coronavirus is here to stay in the US. We have to learn to coexist with it. Unless we are prepared to shut down business and travel for years, we have to learn how to function with the virus in our world. Hopefully Hawaii and everyone else will realize that eventually. It ain’t gong away. It’s not going to be eradicated. Cases will continue for years. The question is not when will it be gone, the question is how long will it take for us to learn to manage it and live with it like we do other deadly diseases.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

DeniseM said:


> Good point, Luanne - I hope that's it.  I've been concerned about the fall out from the big unsanctioned beach parties that they had Memorial Day weekend.


The fallout from the Memorial Day Beach parties will be trivial compared with the consequences of the George Floyd demonstrations.  Instead of hundreds of people without social distancing there are tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people interacting without social distancing.  And instead of people simply milling about and socializing, during demonstrations people bave been screaming, shouting, panting, hyperventilating, and generally engaging in all of the behaviors associated with super-spreader events.

If you are "concerned" about the fall out from Memorial Day beach parties, by any rational measure you should be in terror regarding what has transpired in the last two weeks.  The COVID-19 transmission impacts of the Memorial Day events are trivial in comparison to what we have seen since that time.


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> The fallout from the Memorial Day Beach parties will be trivial compared with the consequences of the George Floyd demonstrations.  Instead of hundreds of people without social distancing there are tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people interacting without social distancing.  And instead of people simply milling about and socializing, during demonstrations people bave been screaming, shouting, panting, hyperventilating, and generally engaging in all of the behaviors associated with super-spreader events.
> 
> If you are "concerned" about the fall out from Memorial Day beach parties, by any rational measure you should be in terror regarding what has transpired in the last two weeks.  The COVID-19 transmission impacts of the Memorial Day events are trivial in comparison to what we have seen since that time.


My guess is that neither one will be as bad or dire as some might fear, because they are outdoors and the viral load/exposure is far less than in close quarters.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> My guess is that neither one will be as bad or dire as some might fear, because they are outdoors and the viral load/exposure is far less than in close quarters.


In the end, the difference between "pandemic" and "endemic" is a societal decision, not a medical decision.  The transition occurs when collectively we decide to accept the risks and get on with life.  

That will almost certainly happen before public health personnel think we are "ready". That endpoint will no doubt be different in various locales, as it should be; each region should make it's own decisions, and we should respect those decisions even though those decisions might differ from our own beliefs and preferences.


----------



## jabberwocky

I agree with being cautious (I started wearing a face mask in mid-March well before anyone was advising this) - but promoting this idea that antibodies don’t give some level of immunity is harmful and anti-scientific. Consider:

1) the human body seems to be able to clear the virus by itself in the vast majority of cases. The only way to do so is via an immune response.
2) if you can’t get immunity via antibodies then why are billions of dollars being spent to develop a vaccine which is designed to initiate the production of such antibodies?

I’m unaware of any studies that have shown that humans do not develop resistance after infection from Covid-19 (and I’ve read a lot of studies).

  Yes - we don’t know how long immunity lasts; however, that is due to the short period of time that has elapsed since the emergence of this virus and is not evidence that there is no immunity conferred for some period of time.

Remember, sowing fear, uncertainty and doubt are effective tools for timeshare salespeople, they are also useful tools for public health officials and politicians. That does not mean long-standing scientific knowledge of immune systems should be disregarded.


----------



## csodjd

jabberwocky said:


> I agree with being cautious (I started wearing a face mask in mid-March well before anyone was advising this) - but promoting this idea that antibodies don’t give some level of immunity is harmful and anti-scientific. Consider:
> 
> 1) the human body seems to be able to clear the virus by itself in the vast majority of cases. The only way to do so is via an immune response.
> 2) if you can’t get immunity via antibodies then why are billions of dollars being spent to develop a vaccine which is designed to initiate the production of such antibodies?
> 
> I’m unaware of any studies that have shown that humans do not develop resistance after infection from Covid-19 (and I’ve read a lot of studies).
> 
> Yes - we don’t know how long immunity lasts; however, that is due to the short period of time that has elapsed since the emergence of this virus and is not evidence that there is no immunity conferred for some period of time.
> 
> Remember, sowing fear, uncertainty and doubt are effective tools for timeshare salespeople, they are also useful tools for public health officials and politicians. That does not mean long-standing scientific knowledge of immune systems should be disregarded.


In the arena of immunology, we should just follow the science. Comments like "I’m unaware of any studies that have shown that humans do not develop resistance after infection from Covid-19" is proof of nothing. I'm unaware of any studies that have shown COVID isn't part of an alien plot from a secret society living on the dark side of the moon. So is that "evidence" that there is, in fact, a secret society on the dark side of the moon using COVID as a plot against us? Of course not. 

The LACK of studies doesn't prove anything. It is the OUTCOME of studies that prove things.

So, what you/we are looking for are studies that demonstrate the immunity, and inform us as to it breadth, depth, and longevity. You've read a lot of studies. But you didn't mention that any of THOSE exist yet.

It seems likely that some degree of immunity exists in those that have been infected. But we know nothing more, yet. Does a mild/low viral load infection provide the same degree of immunity as a high viral load, for instance. Do all people develop the same immunity or do some develop a strong lasting immunity and others a very weak immunity? If you are taking an immunosuppresive drug for psoriasis or RA or IBS or a host of other things, does that change whether you are immune? So many unknowns at this early point in time that it is irresponsible to ASSUME you cannot become reinfected now, or 4 months from now, and based on that assumption disregard things like social distancing and face masks. We will know in time, but until we do, it is safer for everyone to act as if you can get reinfected.


----------



## burg1121

JIMinNC said:


> Activity increases, cases will go up. Even in Hawaii. Coronavirus is here to stay in the US. We have to learn to coexist with it. Unless we are prepared to shut down business and travel for years, we have to learn how to function with the virus in our world. Hopefully Hawaii and everyone else will realize that eventually. It ain’t gong away. It’s not going to be eradicated. Cases will continue for years. The question is not when will it be gone, the question is how long will it take for us to learn to manage it and live with it like we do other deadly diseases.


I'm not sure why that it's here to stay is a given. Most of what the experts have said seems to change weekly. Some corona viruses just burnout like SARS. No one knows what this one will do. Let's hope thar it follows in it's cousins footsteps.


----------



## JIMinNC

burg1121 said:


> I'm not sure why that it's here to stay is a given. Most of what the experts have said seems to change weekly. Some corona viruses just burnout like SARS. No one knows what this one will do. Let's hope thar it follows in it's cousins footsteps.


The difference between the current situation and the original SARS seems to be that SARS was largely contained to a few localized areas. So once it was contained in those few places, it did not spread as widely as this one has. For some reason, Covid19 seems to spread so much easier than the original SARS making it harder to contain and eradicate. That is why so many scientists think this will eventually just become another disease that circulates in our world. Fortunately Covid 19 is less deadly than SARS.


----------



## csodjd

burg1121 said:


> I'm not sure why that it's here to stay is a given. Most of what the experts have said seems to change weekly. Some corona viruses just burnout like SARS. No one knows what this one will do. Let's hope thar it follows in it's cousins footsteps.


This one is particularly difficult to eliminate because of the number of people that can carry it without symptoms or knowledge that they are, in fact, carrying it. It is not unlike some STDs, in fact. One of the most difficult aspects of controlling the spread of them is that in many cases there is no visible sign someone has it. This virus has that same trait. 

There is a theory, and Univ of Pittsburgh doctors are obvserving this, that the virility of the virus will diminish with time because the virus self-selects for a more mild form. If it kills the host, the virus dies with it. The viruses that survive to replicate are those that have a more mild affect on the host.


----------



## DeniseM

There is a new article in the Star Advertised that provides the source of the new 8 cases of Coronavirus on Oahu:  it was the family of a previously known case.  I think it's good news, that it wasn't a new source:


> Of Saturday’s eight new cases, six came from the same household in Waipahu with one of them a coworker of a previous case. The two remaining cases were also household members of previous cases, highlighting the importance of contact tracing, Anderson said.











						Hawaii is likely to see more COVID-19 infections as reopening continues, health director says
					

The number of new coronavirus cases in Hawaii has increased slightly, nearly reaching half of all of May’s cases in the first week of this month. But Hawaii’s health director says the state continues to be positioned well in its response to the pandemic.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## jpd88

I don't intend to spend my week quarantined in resort's room.  Our vacation is planned for early July and I haven't canceled, yet.  Just read the governor's myriad rules.  Among them - you can't have visitors in your room, you can't visit the hotel's restaurants, you can't walk a dog outside,.....in essence, you can't leave your room...period.  What a farce.


----------



## DeniseM

Please be aware that they have been arresting and deporting people who break quarantine.  You should cancel your July reservation, because the governor has already said that he is extending the quarantine into July. 

*Additional note:  When you check-in, they give you a key card that allows admission to your unit one time.  Once you leave, you can't get back into your unit, and the resort will report you.


----------



## Luanne

jpd88 said:


> I don't intend to spend my week quarantined in resort's room.  Our vacation is planned for early July and I haven't canceled, yet.  Just read the governor's myriad rules.  Among them - you can't have visitors in your room, you can't visit the hotel's restaurants, you can't walk a dog outside,.....in essence, you can't leave your room...period.  What a farce.


Yep, this has been made perfectly clear, and as Denise posted it's being taken seriously.  A couple who arrived on Kauai and detoured to a grocery store before checking in were arrested.  In another case a man took selfies on the beach on Oahu.  He was also arrested.


----------



## slip

DeniseM said:


> There is a new article in the Star Advertised that provides the source of the new 8 cases of Coronavirus on Oahu:  it was the family of a previously known case.  I think it's good news, that it wasn't a new source:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii is likely to see more COVID-19 infections as reopening continues, health director says
> 
> 
> The number of new coronavirus cases in Hawaii has increased slightly, nearly reaching half of all of May’s cases in the first week of this month. But Hawaii’s health director says the state continues to be positioned well in its response to the pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com



I agree, this is good news and not the first time that when a higher than usual number came out they were able to explain that it was an isolated incident/cluster. It’s also nice to say that 8 cases is a higher than normal number.


----------



## slip

jpd88 said:


> I don't intend to spend my week quarantined in resort's room.  Our vacation is planned for early July and I haven't canceled, yet.  Just read the governor's myriad rules.  Among them - you can't have visitors in your room, you can't visit the hotel's restaurants, you can't walk a dog outside,.....in essence, you can't leave your room...period.  What a farce.



I have seen a similar post before. Why would allowing people to do these things be a quarantine. It defeats the purpose if you are allowed to do these things. You may not agree with the quarantine and that’s fine but it is a quarantine.


----------



## Luanne

slip said:


> I have seen a similar post before. Why would allowing people to do these things be a quarantine. It defeats the purpose if you are allowed to do these things. You may not agree with the quarantine and that’s fine but it is a quarantine.


Or, to put it another way.  You don't want to quarantine.....don't come.


----------



## Ken555

slip said:


> I have seen a similar post before. Why would allowing people to do these things be a quarantine. It defeats the purpose if you are allowed to do these things. You may not agree with the quarantine and that’s fine but it is a quarantine.



People need to vent when they are inconvenienced, it seems, and TUG is a safe place to do so. As for the earlier post mentioning farce...that word really made me laugh...since it’s not Hawai’i which is creating a farce, it’s those who put us all in this preventable situation. But sure, some people will mistakenly direct their anger at Hawaii for protecting the health of their residents instead of welcoming everyone, including C19, with open arms.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

jpd88 said:


> .in essence, you can't leave your room...period.  What a farce.


That's what quarantine means.  If you can leave your abode, it's not quarantine.


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> That's what quarantine means.  If you can leave your abode, it's not quarantine.


Quarantine is often viewed as being punished. Like being sent to your room. What it really means is you are being treated with the assumption you have a contagious disease. The fact that you may not feel sick is a red herring. These quarantines assume you ARE sick and contagious. If there was a highly reliable way to test it seems the quarantine could be negated. But so far a sufficiently certain test -- one with high enough sensitivity and specificity -- has been elusive, making quarantine the only reliable "test" for the disease. But it's not being punished. 

The part that makes it understandably frustrating is that quarantining itself has a very high "false positive" rate -- meaning the vast majority being assumed to have the disease and required to quarantine do not, in fact, have it. I would love to see some rationale softening by providing a way to "buy" yourself out of quarantine with, say, two false tests taken 24 or 48 hours apart.


----------



## csodjd

jpd88 said:


> I don't intend to spend my week quarantined in resort's room.  Our vacation is planned for early July and I haven't canceled, yet.  Just read the governor's myriad rules.  Among them - you can't have visitors in your room, you can't visit the hotel's restaurants, you can't walk a dog outside,.....in essence, you can't leave your room...period.  What a farce.


I would not plan on going in early July. I'm hoping we can go in late October, but can't even say I'm "fairly certain" that travel from California will be allowed then.


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> I would not plan on going in early July. I'm hoping we can go in late October, but can't even say I'm "fairly certain" that travel from California will be allowed then.


This was from four days ago (if I'm repeating information already known I apologize).

"Governor Ige did not provide a date for when the state will lift the mandatory quarantine for out of state arrivals to Hawaii, but an announcement on that decision is expected by the end of June."

That, to me, would make it very shaky to have plans for July.  You might not know until a day or so before the beginning of your trip if the quarantine had been lifted.


----------



## DeniseM

Actually - On May 28th the Gov. said that he would extend the quarantine into July, so I don't think there is any doubt.

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...-outline-latest-steps-reopen-hawaiis-economy/


----------



## Yellowfin




----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> This was from four days ago (if I'm repeating information already known I apologize).
> 
> "Governor Ige did not provide a date for when the state will lift the mandatory quarantine for out of state arrivals to Hawaii, but an announcement on that decision is expected by the end of June."
> 
> That, to me, would make it very shaky to have plans for July.  You might not know until a day or so before the beginning of your trip if the quarantine had been lifted.


Those of us on the mainland it seems will be down the road a bit, so even when HA does open to out-of-state travelers, it will be from other countries before the US mainland. So yes, it's going to be a while still.


----------



## Yellowfin

Maybe the post should be changed to: Will Hawaii open by October?


----------



## Luanne

Yellowfin said:


> Maybe the post should be changed to: Will Hawaii open by October?


I think the thread name has changed each time the quarantine date gets pushed out.


----------



## DeniseM

Yes - When the quarantine is officially extended to July, then I will change the title to "August."

However, my vote is for September at the earliest, but the protests may set things back a bit.  Time will tell.


----------



## controller1

DeniseM said:


> Yes - When the quarantine is officially extended to July, then I will change the title to "August."
> 
> However, my vote is for September at the earliest, but the protests may set things back a bit.  Time will tell.



I'm hoping you're correct. We have reservations for two weeks beginning the last Friday of September. Fingers crossed!


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> Yes - When the quarantine is officially extended to July, then I will change the title to "August."
> 
> However, my vote is for September at the earliest, but the protests may set things back a bit.  Time will tell.


Hard to imagine it will be before September, at least if coming from the mainland US.


----------



## Yellowfin

Governor Ige mentioned that California is registering an important spike in the number of cases and that he does not see anyone from that state being allowed to visit Hawaii without a quarantine anytime soon. He also said on June 1st that he would make an announcement in about a week about the   trans-Pacific travel. I think he was referring to the "safe" coridors Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand. 

My guess is that, depending on where you live, making travel arrangements to Hawaii is risky any month of this year.


----------



## Yellowfin

DeniseM said:


> However, my vote is for September at the earliest, but the protests may set things back a bit.  Time will tell.



A big spike in the number of cases due to the protests will set things back by quite a bit. If there isn't a significant increase, what better proof one needs that the state has to open and that the current measures are excessive?


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> Governor Ige mentioned that California is registering an important spike in the number of cases and that he does not see anyone from that state being allowed to visit Hawaii without a quarantine anytime soon. He also said on June 1st that he would make an announcement in about a week about the   trans-Pacific travel. I think he was referring to the "safe" coridors Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand.
> 
> My guess is that, depending on where you live, making travel arrangements to Hawaii is risky any month of this year.


You may well be correct, but it's such a logically flawed thinking because if there is pre-flight testing, that'll identify and keep out almost all infections, and reasonable policies once in Hawaii will limit or prevent any significant community spread from the occasional miss. If spikes are a "no come" trigger, it'll be like wack-a-mole. Say they open for S. Korea. And 60 days later they have a resurgence for whatever reason. I think they need now to move beyond keeping it out and into mitigating and living with it.


----------



## controller1

csodjd said:


> You may well be correct, but it's such a logically flawed thinking because if there is pre-flight testing, that'll identify and keep out almost all infections, and reasonable policies once in Hawaii will limit or prevent any significant community spread from the occasional miss. If spikes are a "no come" trigger, it'll be like wack-a-mole. Say they open for S. Korea. And 60 days later they have a resurgence for whatever reason. I think they need now to move beyond keeping it out and into mitigating and living with it.



We all know that a person may test negative one day and two days later test positive due to the incubation period of COVID-19. Doesn't it stand to reason that scenario is more likely of a person coming from a state that is registering a spike in cases rather than a state registering decreases in cases?


----------



## Yellowfin

csodjd said:


> You may well be correct, but it's such a logically flawed thinking because if there is pre-flight testing, that'll identify and keep out almost all infections, and reasonable policies once in Hawaii will limit or prevent any significant community spread from the occasional miss. If spikes are a "no come" trigger, it'll be like wack-a-mole. Say they open for S. Korea. And 60 days later they have a resurgence for whatever reason. I think they need now to move beyond keeping it out and into mitigating and living with it.


I agree with you that it is a flawed argument. If you live in rural North California for example you may be at a much lower risk than in a big city in many parts of the world. Testing is the answer otherwise they will have to keep on changing the list of good/bad countries and states faster than people can amend their travel plans.


----------



## JIMinNC

controller1 said:


> We all know that a person may test negative one day and two days later test positive due to the incubation period of COVID-19. Doesn't it stand to reason that scenario is more likely of a person coming from a state that is registering a spike in cases rather than a state registering decreases in cases?



Testing will never completely eliminate the risk for the reason you note, but it will reduce the risk. If the goal of any state or country is elimination of the risk of importing a virus case, then there will be no travel for a long, long time. And as others have noted, state-level statistics mean very little. Within states, the bigger cities all present greater risks than smaller towns, rural areas, and even the suburban areas of those major cities. Even in New York City, an outsized proportion of the cases were focused on Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx. Manhattan was impacted much less. So why should someone from upstate New York or the upper peninsula of Michigan be denied travel opportunities just because Queens, Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Detroit were hot spots?

I get the impression that people think at some point in the next year or so we are going to be declared "COVID-free" and everything goes back to the way it was in January or February. I just don't see that happening. If a future free from any risk of COVID-19 transmission is the goal, the future of any kind of travel is certainly bleak. Mitigating the risk to the greatest extent practical, while allowing life's activities to continue, should be the goal, IMHO.


----------



## csodjd

controller1 said:


> We all know that a person may test negative one day and two days later test positive due to the incubation period of COVID-19. Doesn't it stand to reason that scenario is more likely of a person coming from a state that is registering a spike in cases rather than a state registering decreases in cases?


If the person didn't engage in risky behavior and wasn't exposed to a known infected person, that's possible but very low risk. I'd suggest that the risks of relying on the testing in a foreign country over which Hawaii has no control has its own risks. 

That aside, while I accept your premise -- yes, more risk coming from a location that is spiking -- that leaves unanswered what that higher risk means. In other words, how much more risk? Is it a material increase in risk or more theoretical than real? Does that translate to one more person a month coming in infected, or does it translate to 100 more per week? Let's consider California. There are 40,000,000 people. If the number of new cases "spikes" from 1000 to 4000, what does that really mean for the difference in risk to Hawaii? Even if we assume that those cases are happening entirely in people with the MEANS to travel to Hawaii (which we know isn't the case), that's still a tiny difference in the overall numbers.


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## JIMinNC

New information from WHO casts considerable doubt on the whole "Asymptomatic Spread" argument that is driving a lot of the travel quarantine hysteria. If this proves out, screening for symptoms may accomplish 90% of what we need to do to mitigate the spread due to travel. COVID-19 "can" be spread by asymptomatic people, but it is rare.

WHO Says Asymptomatic Spread of Coronavirus is "Very Rare."



> Coronavirus patients without symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus, World Health Organization officials said Monday, casting doubt on concerns by some researchers that the disease could be difficult to contain due to asymptomatic infections.
> 
> Some people, particularly young and otherwise healthy individuals, who are infected by the coronavirus never develop symptoms or only develop mild symptoms. Others might not develop symptoms until days after they were actually infected.
> 
> Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated that the virus could spread from person-to-person contact, even if the carrier didn’t have symptoms. But WHO officials now say that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is not the main way it’s being transmitted.
> 
> “From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency’s Geneva headquarters. “It’s very rare.”


----------



## Ken555

Yellowfin said:


> A big spike in the number of cases due to the protests will set things back by quite a bit. If there isn't a significant increase, what better proof one needs that the state has to open and that the current measures are excessive?



Certainly true for outside events. We have known for some time that the rate of infection while in a closed space is highest, based on the info we have now. Opening is not an all or nothing proposition.


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## Ken555

JIMinNC said:


> New information from WHO casts considerable doubt on the whole "Asymptomatic Spread" argument that is driving a lot of the travel quarantine hysteria. If this proves out, screening for symptoms may accomplish 90% of what we need to do to mitigate the spread due to travel. COVID-19 "can" be spread by asymptomatic people, but it is rare.
> 
> WHO Says Asymptomatic Spread of Coronavirus is "Very Rare."



This is welcome news, but are you sure you trust it? Now that the USA is pulling out of the WHO... I’m waiting for all the critical and sarcastic posts (as in other threads on this topic) in response for how we can’t trust the WHO. 

Waiting.

Waiting.


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## JIMinNC

Ken555 said:


> This is welcome news, but are you sure you trust it? Now that the USA is pulling out of the WHO... I’m waiting for all the critical and sarcastic posts (as in other threads on this topic) in response for how we can’t trust the WHO.
> 
> Waiting.
> 
> Waiting.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I don't think we can truly "trust" any of the information that has been coming out from various agencies and research institutions on coronavirus like we have traditionally been able to, but that's not because they are corrupt or biased or whatever. It's because this is so new everyone is learning as we go. Normally when a new disease emerges, all of the conflicting research and uncertainty takes place in the background within the research community, health regulatory/advisory agencies like CDC and WHO, universities, research hospitals, etc. The studies are published in professional journals and are peer reviewed and analyzed for many months or years before things are truly understood. In this case, all of that back-and-forth is taking place in plain view under the microscope of the general public media and the political environment.

So, I think we are all learning as we go. That's why I said in my post above, "If this proves out...".

But IMHO, the whole asymptomatic spread issue is perhaps the most important dynamic to truly understand, as it seems to be driving a lot of the more draconian measures and restrictions on everyday life. If we could truly confirm conclusively that asymptomatic spread is indeed rare as the WHO official said, that opens up a world of possibilities for screening that focuses on symptoms rather than hidden infections. Getting our economy back and our lifestyle back to a more sustainable place will be much easier to do if asymptomatic spread is indeed rare.


----------



## Ken555

JIMinNC said:


> I don't think we can truly "trust" any of the information that has been coming out from various agencies and research institutions on coronavirus like we have traditionally been able to, but that's not because they are corrupt or biased or whatever. It's because this is so new everyone is learning as we go. Normally when a new disease emerges, all of the conflicting research and uncertainty takes place in the background within the research community, health regulatory/advisory agencies like CDC and WHO, universities, research hospitals, etc. The studies are published in professional journals and are peer reviewed and analyzed for many months or years before things are truly understood. In this case, all of that back-and-forth is taking place in plain view under the microscope of the general public media.
> 
> So, I think we are all learning as we go. That's why I said in my post above, "If this proves out...".
> 
> But IMHO, the whole asymptomatic spread issue is perhaps the most important dynamic to truly understand, as it seems to be driving a lot of the more draconian measures and restrictions on everyday life. If we could truly confirm conclusively that asymptomatic spread is indeed rare as the WHO official said, that opens up a world of possibilities for screening that focuses on symptoms rather than hidden infections. Getting our economy back and our lifestyle back to a more sustainable place will be much easier to do if asymptomatic spread is indeed rare.



Absolutely, but trust is the wrong word. 

My sarcastic reply was more to do with the posts on TUG about the WHO and other scientific experts who have been the target of some here on TUG. There have been posts, sarcastic and otherwise, targeting these organizations and implying that we cannot trust them because they change their advice over time. Of course these individuals don’t understand how science works...but still, it’s quite disheartening, especially since it’s those same people who have been pro opening, pro massive spread to get it over with... and this attitude is encouraged by those who decided to cut funding to the WHO. The whole thing is a mess.

So if some of you criticize the WHO for their earlier advice, I certainly hope you’ll either apologize for it or not believe this latest news. You really can’t have it both ways.


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## Yellowfin

do we even remember if there was a study at the time that the asymptomatic people could transmit the virus or if it was just "concern" and speculation? It did not make a lot of sense to me but everyone seemed so convinced...


----------



## Ken555

Yellowfin said:


> do we even remember if there was a study at the time that the asymptomatic people could transmit the virus or if it was just "concern" and speculation? It did not make a lot of sense to me but everyone seemed so convinced...



Many, many posts on TUG on this very topic.

A quick google search brought me to this doc from the New England Journal of Medicine, first published on April 24, which concludes:



> Ultimately, the rapid spread of Covid-19 across the United States and the globe, the clear evidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from asymptomatic persons,5 and the eventual need to relax current social distancing practices argue for broadened SARS-CoV-2 testing to include asymptomatic persons in prioritized settings. These factors also support the case for the general public to use face masks10 when in crowded outdoor or indoor spaces. This unprecedented pandemic calls for unprecedented measures to achieve its ultimate defeat.





			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2009758
		


Frankly, the rapid spread of this contagion is difficult to explain without asymptomatic spread. I’m waiting for the follow up on the WHO announcement to explain this in more detail.

Update:

This is the reference re the asymptomatic conclusions in the earlier article. 



> Rapid and widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was demonstrated in this skilled nursing facility. More than half of residents with positive test results were asymptomatic at the time of testing and most likely contributed to transmission. Infection-control strategies focused solely on symptomatic residents were not sufficient to prevent transmission after SARS-CoV-2 introduction into this facility.





			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2008457
		



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## JIMinNC

Yellowfin said:


> do we even remember if there was a study at the time that the asymptomatic people could transmit the virus or if it was just "concern" and speculation? It did not make a lot of sense to me but everyone seemed so convinced...



I've had the same question myself.

Just did a quick Google search and found these:

March Study from China Case study of a single family

CDC Report on March 2020 Singapore Study  Investigation of all 243 cases of COVID-19 reported in Singapore during January 23–March 16 identified seven clusters of cases in which presymptomatic transmission is the most likely explanation for the occurrence of secondary cases.

Study from NIH published in May In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.

It seems there is no question spread CAN occur in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people. I suspect a lot of the earlier studies found just that, but since it was early, they really didn't have large statistically-controlled tests. The questions that need to be answered though become more nuanced:

Is asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread more common in closed family settings where people are in close contact for extended periods or hours or days? Such would also apply to other close-quarters environments like nursing homes, prisons, workplaces with little ability to social distance, etc.
Is it likely for there to be asymptomatic spread from casual, passing contact outside or even indoors if the period of exposure is short?


----------



## Yellowfin

JIMinNC said:


> I've had the same question myself.
> 
> Just did a quick Google search and found these:
> 
> March Study from China Case study of a single family
> 
> CDC Report on March 2020 Singapore Study  Investigation of all 243 cases of COVID-19 reported in Singapore during January 23–March 16 identified seven clusters of cases in which presymptomatic transmission is the most likely explanation for the occurrence of secondary cases.
> 
> Study from NIH published in May In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.
> 
> It seems there is no question spread CAN occur in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people. I suspect a lot of the earlier studies found just that, but since it was early, they really didn't have large statistically-controlled tests. The questions that need to be answered though become more nuanced:
> 
> Is asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread more common in closed family settings where people are in close contact for extended periods or hours or days? Such would also apply to other close-quarters environments like nursing homes, prisons, workplaces with little ability to social distance, etc.
> Is it likely for there to be asymptomatic spread from casual, passing contact outside or even indoors if the period of exposure is short?


can I just say that a study that  mentions the word "suggesting" is not a real study or at least should not be taken as evidence for any public policy decision? The world has been upside down for 3 months, in no small part because of the fear that asymptomatic people were very important in transmitting the virus.


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> Absolutely, but trust is the wrong word.
> 
> My sarcastic reply was more to do with the posts on TUG about the WHO and other scientific experts who have been the target of some here on TUG. There have been posts, sarcastic and otherwise, targeting these organizations and implying that we cannot trust them because they change their advice over time. Of course these individuals don’t understand how science works...but still, it’s quite disheartening, especially since it’s those same people who have been pro opening, pro massive spread to get it over with... and this attitude is encouraged by those who decided to cut funding to the WHO. The whole thing is a mess.
> 
> So if some of you criticize the WHO for their earlier advice, I certainly hope you’ll either apologize for it or not believe this latest news. You really can’t have it both ways.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Not funding WHO is about as clever an idea as eliminating the police. And it's not exactly like CDC nailed it the first time around either. Should we defund all of them and just go back to using leeches?


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> can I just say that a study that  mentions the word "suggesting" is not a real study or at least should not be taken as evidence for any public policy decision? The world has been upside down for 3 months, in no small part because of the fear that asymptomatic people were very important in transmitting the virus.


Not every study is the endpoint. Most are not. Most have a definitive conclusion that suggests something which becomes the hypothesis for the next study to examine. It's no less a "real study" because they speculate as to the EXPLANATION for the results found.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> It seems there is no question spread CAN occur in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people. I suspect a lot of the earlier studies found just that, but since it was early, they really didn't have large statistically-controlled tests. The questions that need to be answered though become more nuanced:
> 
> Is asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread more common in closed family settings where people are in close contact for extended periods or hours or days? Such would also apply to other close-quarters environments like nursing homes, prisons, workplaces with little ability to social distance, etc.
> Is it likely for there to be asymptomatic spread from casual, passing contact outside or even indoors if the period of exposure is short?


There seems to be growing evidence that the answers are what you'd expect, yes and no. That may be a result of viral load, or something else.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> Not every study is the endpoint. Most are not. Most have a definitive conclusion that suggests something which becomes the hypothesis for the next study to examine. It's no less a "real study" because they speculate as to the EXPLANATION for the results found.


Precisely.

It's almost obligatory that every study must end with suggestions, because that forms the basis for the next funding proposal.  To conclude an investigation without suggesting additional investigation is an off-ramp from the grants and funding freeway.


----------



## lynne

One of the obstacles facing Hawaii for contact tracing is that the required form for entering the state is not being completed:

Some 75% of the Oahu visitors, who filled out a state DOT travel form, said they were coming to Hawaii to visit with friends and family. About 12% of respondents said they were coming for vacation, while 5% said they came for business and about 2% said they were coming to Hawaii to relocate. The percentages don’t total 100% because 35 people chose not to answer questions about the purpose of their visit. Also, respondents could choose more than one answer. 

I cannot see a solution to the 14 day quarantine unless the government puts some teeth into requiring testing and contact tracing.


----------



## rickandcindy23

I thought the governor of Hawaii was making an announcement today.  Our daughter is hoping for Big Island and Maui to open mid-July for her trip.  I am guessing it won't happen, but I am always, always hopeful.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

rickandcindy23 said:


> I thought the governor of Hawaii was making an announcement today.  Our daughter is hoping for Big Island and Maui to open mid-July for her trip.  I am guessing it won't happen, but I am always, always hopeful.




Believe they promised more details about opening up sometime this week.  Not sure they indicated which day of the week they would make that announcement.


----------



## Luanne

rickandcindy23 said:


> I thought the governor of Hawaii was making an announcement today.  Our daughter is hoping for Big Island and Maui to open mid-July for her trip.  I am guessing it won't happen, but I am always, always hopeful.


From a previously posted article dated May 28:

"The governor says a mandatory, 14-day quarantine for mainland and international travelers will be extended beyond June 30.

The decision effectively rules out a reopening of the tourism industry by July 1 — a date some had eyed as possible given the state’s low number of new COVID-19 cases.

Gov. David Ige made the announcement Thursday in a virtual gathering with Hawaii’s four mayors. Ige didn’t say when the quarantine might be lifted.

But in the past, the quarantine has been extended a month at a time."


----------



## Yellowfin

Luanne said:


> From a previously posted article dated May 28:
> 
> "The governor says a mandatory, 14-day quarantine for mainland and international travelers will be extended beyond June 30.
> 
> The decision effectively rules out a reopening of the tourism industry by July 1 — a date some had eyed as possible given the state’s low number of new COVID-19 cases.
> 
> Gov. David Ige made the announcement Thursday in a virtual gathering with Hawaii’s four mayors. Ige didn’t say when the quarantine might be lifted.
> 
> But in the past, the quarantine has been extended a month at a time."


Based on the past, it is reasonable to assume that they will extend the quarantine one month at a time but this is not a rule, they can extend it by 2 weeks or any other amount of time.


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward

JIMinNC said:


> I've had the same question myself.
> 
> Just did a quick Google search and found these:
> 
> March Study from China Case study of a single family
> 
> CDC Report on March 2020 Singapore Study  Investigation of all 243 cases of COVID-19 reported in Singapore during January 23–March 16 identified seven clusters of cases in which presymptomatic transmission is the most likely explanation for the occurrence of secondary cases.
> 
> Study from NIH published in May In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.
> 
> It seems there is no question spread CAN occur in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people. I suspect a lot of the earlier studies found just that, but since it was early, they really didn't have large statistically-controlled tests. The questions that need to be answered though become more nuanced:
> 
> Is asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread more common in closed family settings where people are in close contact for extended periods or hours or days? Such would also apply to other close-quarters environments like nursing homes, prisons, workplaces with little ability to social distance, etc.
> Is it likely for there to be asymptomatic spread from casual, passing contact outside or even indoors if the period of exposure is short?



It Isn't randomized ans double blind, but we are having a large scale test going on with the protestors. It should show up in 2-4 weeks, if asymptomatic contagion is common, in the case numbers. . . .


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> It Isn't randomized ans double blind, but we are having a large scale test going on with the protestors. It should show up in 2-4 weeks, if asymptomatic contagion is common, in the case numbers. . . .


If asymptomatic contagion is common, with the demonstrators skewing to a younger demographic, it's likely that a disproportionate of the next generation transmitters would also be asymptomatic.  

And since the data that is tracked most carefully is hospitalization rates, that means the impacts from the demonstrations may start to be most apparent in 4-8 weeks.


----------



## cman

lynne said:


> I cannot see a solution to the 14 day quarantine unless the government puts some teeth into requiring testing and contact tracing.



Not sure the status of required testing, but according to this article, today they begin training 300 contact tracers. The training is expected to last the middle of July.









						Contact tracing program kicks off Monday
					






					www.kitv.com


----------



## MommaBear

csodjd said:


> Not funding WHO is about as clever an idea as eliminating the police. And it's not exactly like CDC nailed it the first time around either. Should we defund all of them and just go back to using leeches?


Leeches? Don't we already have politicians?
But seriously, we do still use leeches in microvascular surgeries, such as reattaching fingers.
We need both WHO and the CDC to continue their work on disease study and epidemiology.


----------



## JIMinNC

Well, Hawaii may still be afraid to open, but French Polynesia is not.

We're on Air Tahiti Nui's email list thanks to our amazing cruise in French Polynesia *exactly* one year ago this week, and just got this tonight. French Polynesia is reopening on July 15 and Air Tahiti Nui is starting LAX-PPT flights on July 16. There are testing and other health requirements that aren't exactly simple, but at least they are trying to restart their tourism economy. Wish Hawaii were being as proactive.





These are the entry requirements:


*Prior to departure*
Compulsory COVID-19 (RT-PCR) test 72 hours before the departure to French Polynesia
Compulsory international travel insurance for every non-resident visitor traveling to French Polynesia (example; coverage provided by some credit cards used to cover the stay);
Travelers will have to provide a medical certificate – Specifics to be communicated
If the test is negative: boarding
If the test is positive: no boarding

Travelers who have tested COVID-19 positive more than 3 weeks prior to the departure and who have an immunity certificate proving their recovery are exempt from the requirements listed above – Specifics to be communicated.

*During the flight*
Application of International Air Transport Association (IATA) sanitary measures for travel (airport procedures and procedures during the flight. Example: wearing a mask); See here for link to full guidelines.
Sign a statement of commitment to follow sanitary measures and self-diagnosis of symptoms;
Fill in an information form regarding their stay: itinerary and accommodation (e-mail contact / phone / dates of stay).

*During the stay*
Wearing a mask is recommended;
COVID-19 test 4 days after arrival: The Ministry of Health and Prevention of French Polynesia will randomly test a panel of travelers during their stay;
Regular visits from a medical staff authorized by the Department of Health will be held in the accommodations and hotel establishments;
Application of sanitary measures during the stay;
Travelers’ self-diagnosis: alert the authorities by calling the local emergency operations calling center in case of fever and/or breathing difficulties;
If a visitor has symptoms or is declared positive:
Isolation in self-quarantine in the accommodation;
Application of the sanitary measures protocol by the Department of Health – procedures to be communicated.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> Well, Hawaii may still be afraid to open, but French Polynesia is not.
> 
> We're on Air Tahiti Nui's email list thanks to our amazing cruise in French Polynesia *exactly* one year ago this week, and just got this tonight. French Polynesia is reopening on July 15 and Air Tahiti Nui is starting LAX-PPT flights on July 16. There are testing and other health requirements that aren't exactly simple, but at least they are trying to restart their tourism economy. Wish Hawaii were being as proactive.
> 
> View attachment 21865
> 
> These are the entry requirements:
> 
> 
> *Prior to departure*
> Compulsory COVID-19 (RT-PCR) test 72 hours before the departure to French Polynesia
> Compulsory international travel insurance for every non-resident visitor traveling to French Polynesia (example; coverage provided by some credit cards used to cover the stay);
> Travelers will have to provide a medical certificate – Specifics to be communicated
> If the test is negative: boarding
> If the test is positive: no boarding
> 
> Travelers who have tested COVID-19 positive more than 3 weeks prior to the departure and who have an immunity certificate proving their recovery are exempt from the requirements listed above – Specifics to be communicated.
> 
> *During the flight*
> Application of International Air Transport Association (IATA) sanitary measures for travel (airport procedures and procedures during the flight. Example: wearing a mask); See here for link to full guidelines.
> Sign a statement of commitment to follow sanitary measures and self-diagnosis of symptoms;
> Fill in an information form regarding their stay: itinerary and accommodation (e-mail contact / phone / dates of stay).
> 
> *During the stay*
> Wearing a mask is recommended;
> COVID-19 test 4 days after arrival: The Ministry of Health and Prevention of French Polynesia will randomly test a panel of travelers during their stay;
> Regular visits from a medical staff authorized by the Department of Health will be held in the accommodations and hotel establishments;
> Application of sanitary measures during the stay;
> Travelers’ self-diagnosis: alert the authorities by calling the local emergency operations calling center in case of fever and/or breathing difficulties;
> If a visitor has symptoms or is declared positive:
> Isolation in self-quarantine in the accommodation;
> Application of the sanitary measures protocol by the Department of Health – procedures to be communicated.


I'm currently booked on an Air Tahiti flight from LAX to Paris in mid-September, then a commuter to London, for a golf tournament in Deal, UK. Of course, not if they have a quarantine in place. But I've not canceled anything since it's booked with AA miles, so I can cancel any time. 

None of those rules seem unreasonable. Makes me want to go to French Polynesia!


----------



## PigsDad

JIMinNC said:


> Well, Hawaii may still be afraid to open, but French Polynesia is not.
> ...
> These are the entry requirements:
> ...
> 
> Travelers who have tested COVID-19 positive more than 3 weeks prior to the departure and who have an immunity certificate proving their recovery are exempt from the requirements listed above – Specifics to be communicated.




Evidently, French Polynesia seems to be fairly confident that prior CV-19 infection provides a level of immunity such that they are not concerned about those people being contagious.  Kind of contradicts the CDC's statement on immunity (or at least how people are using that statement).  Interesting.

Kurt


----------



## Yellowfin

Experts: Reopening tourism without requiring visitors to get tested could trigger ‘disaster’
					

"Very quickly we will be overwhelmed with new cases."




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## Yellowfin

David Ige: "I do not think we will allow domestic travel before the end of June"









						VIDEO: Gov. David Ige discusses coronavirus updates on COVID-19 Care Conversation
					

Gov. David Ige said today that the recent increase in COVID-19 cases were a result of Memorial Day weekend gatherings.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## Ken555

JIMinNC said:


> New information from WHO casts considerable doubt on the whole "Asymptomatic Spread" argument that is driving a lot of the travel quarantine hysteria. If this proves out, screening for symptoms may accomplish 90% of what we need to do to mitigate the spread due to travel. COVID-19 "can" be spread by asymptomatic people, but it is rare.
> 
> WHO Says Asymptomatic Spread of Coronavirus is "Very Rare."



Well, that didn’t last long until they corrected the mistaken announcement.



> World health official walks back findings





> Calling the controversy “a misunderstanding,” Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging disease and zoonosis unit, said that during the news conference Monday, she was trying to respond to a journalist’s question when she said asymptomatic transmission was “very rare.”
> 
> “I wasn’t stating a policy of WHO or anything like that,” she said. “We do know that some people who are asymptomatic, or some people who do not have symptoms, can transmit the virus on.”











						After criticism, WHO clarifies stance on asymptomatic virus transmission — The Washington Post
					

The World Health Organization moved Tuesday to clarify its position on whether people without symptoms are widely spreading the new coronavirus, saying much remains unknown about asymptomatic transmission.




					apple.news
				






> WHO official walks back comments on asymptomatic transmission being 'very rare'











						WHO official walks back comments on asymptomatic transmission being 'very rare'
					

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead for COVID-19 response, clarified Tuesday that asymptomatic transmission is still 'a major unknown.'



					www.usatoday.com
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## JIMinNC

csodjd said:


> None of those rules seem unreasonable. Makes me want to go to French Polynesia!



Here's another French Polynesian temptation! From one year ago this week


----------



## JIMinNC

Ken555 said:


> Well, that didn’t last long until they corrected the mistaken announcement.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> After criticism, WHO clarifies stance on asymptomatic virus transmission — The Washington Post
> 
> 
> The World Health Organization moved Tuesday to clarify its position on whether people without symptoms are widely spreading the new coronavirus, saying much remains unknown about asymptomatic transmission.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apple.news
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WHO official walks back comments on asymptomatic transmission being 'very rare'
> 
> 
> Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead for COVID-19 response, clarified Tuesday that asymptomatic transmission is still 'a major unknown.'
> 
> 
> 
> www.usatoday.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



The walk back was a bit weak though. Reading the clarifications, it sounds like what they are now saying is something like this (my paraphrase, not their words):

_We have not seen any studies that can conclusively document significant asymptomatic spread. In fact, the studies we have seen have shown asymptomatic spread to be "very rare." These studies, however, are more anecdotal and do not represent rigidly controlled scientific studies. We know it CAN spread asymptomatically, we just do not yet have enough data to know how prevalent it actually is in the real world. Some of our statistical prediction models estimate that asymptomatic spread could be as high as 40%, but these are just predictive models, not actual field data. We still have much to learn, so this does not change the WHO policy, and we should be careful and continue to guard against the possibility of asymptomatic spread._

I think this is a smart and prudent clarification. What Ms. Kerkhove was apparently trying to say is that most of the empirical evidence they have seen so far does not support extensive asymptomatic spread, but given that we know so little at this point, it is imprudent to assume that is the complete picture and make critical decisions based on that being absolute fact.

I still think it is encouraging that health officials have not been able to conclusively document a lot of asymptomatic spread, despite what the statistical models say is possible.

The general circulation media likes to latch onto things that are simple and clear cut, and sometimes scientists don't always explain the uncertainty that always goes with their work. So, the media tries to find absolutes while the scientist understands, but doesn't always effectively communicate, the uncertainty.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> The walk back was a bit weak though. Reading the clarifications, it sounds like what they are now saying is something like this (my paraphrase, not their words):
> 
> _We have not seen any studies that can conclusively document significant asymptomatic spread. In fact, the studies we have seen have shown asymptomatic spread to be "very rare." These studies, however, are more anecdotal and do not represent rigidly controlled scientific studies. We know it CAN spread asymptomatically, we just do not yet have enough data to know how prevalent it actually is in the real world. Some of our statistical prediction models estimate that asymptomatic spread could be as high as 40%, but these are just predictive models, not actual field data. We still have much to learn, so this does not change the WHO policy, and we should be careful and continue to guard against the possibility of asymptomatic spread._
> 
> I think this is a smart and prudent clarification. What Ms. Kerkhove was apparently trying to say is that most of the empirical evidence they have seen so far does not support extensive asymptomatic spread, but given that we know so little at this point, it is imprudent to assume that is the complete picture and make critical decisions based on that being absolute fact.
> 
> I still think it is encouraging that health officials have not been able to conclusively document a lot of asymptomatic spread, despite what the statistical models say is possible.
> 
> The general circulation media likes to latch onto things that are simple and clear cut, and sometimes scientists don't always explain the uncertainty that always goes with their work. So, the media tries to find absolutes while the scientist understands, but doesn't always effectively communicate, the uncertainty.


While it may be a smart and prudent clarification, I think it was a not-smart and careless statement in the first place. It could easily be understood to say, we don't see any evidence of asymptomatic spread. What they are really saying though is, we really have no idea about asymptomatic spread. And if that's the case, why say anything? The concerns over asymptomatic spread are a major driving force behind the actions and decisions of governments around the world. That's not a good time to be inarticulate.


----------



## JIMinNC

csodjd said:


> While it may be a smart and prudent clarification, I think it was a not-smart and careless statement in the first place. It could easily be understood to say, we don't see any evidence of asymptomatic spread. What they are really saying though is, we really have no idea about asymptomatic spread. And if that's the case, why say anything? The concerns over asymptomatic spread are a major driving force behind the actions and decisions of governments around the world. That's not a good time to be inarticulate.



I think part of the disconnect stems from a similar dynamic that I see as a member of specialized aviation media when dealing with mainstream public media on technical or specialized topics. The mainstream media is looking for simple straightforward, black-and-white concepts to easily communicate and will latch onto and simplify even nuanced, complex statements.

Some "experts" also don't often do a good job of explaining the nuances of their field to those on the outside, like the public media. Ms. Kerkhove was simply responding to a question and stated that the limited data they have has yet to document significant asymptomatic spread. She probably intuitively understood that fact didn't mean asymptomatic spread had been debunked because she knew the limitations of the data. But that's exactly how the mainstream media, looking for simple concepts, took it. Perhaps she should have been more careful in her wording, but I see those same kinds of disconnects all the time when mainstream media interviews aviation experts after events that cause the public media to suddenly take an interest in aviation.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> I think part of the disconnect stems from a similar dynamic that I see as a member of specialized aviation media when dealing with mainstream public media on technical or specialized topics. The mainstream media is looking for simple straightforward, black-and-white concepts to easily communicate and will latch onto and simplify even nuanced, complex statements.
> 
> Some "experts" also don't often do a good job of explaining the nuances of their field to those on the outside, like the public media. Ms. Kerkhove was simply responding to a question and stated that the limited data they have has yet to document significant asymptomatic spread. She probably intuitively understood that fact didn't mean asymptomatic spread had been debunked because she knew the limitations of the data. But that's exactly how the mainstream media, looking for simple concepts, took it. Perhaps she should have been more careful in her wording, but I see those same kinds of disconnects all the time when mainstream media interviews aviation experts after events that cause the public media to suddenly take an interest in aviation.


Fair enough... but they aren't rookies, and they know their statements have consequences. She did use the words, "very rare." How is any media supposed to take that?


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

JIMinNC said:


> I think part of the disconnect stems from a similar dynamic that I see as a member of specialized aviation media when dealing with mainstream public media on technical or specialized topics. The mainstream media is looking for simple straightforward, black-and-white concepts to easily communicate and will latch onto and simplify even nuanced, complex statements.
> 
> Some "experts" also don't often do a good job of explaining the nuances of their field to those on the outside, like the public media. Ms. Kerkhove was simply responding to a question and stated that the limited data they have has yet to document significant asymptomatic spread. She probably intuitively understood that fact didn't mean asymptomatic spread had been debunked because she knew the limitations of the data. But that's exactly how the mainstream media, looking for simple concepts, took it. Perhaps she should have been more careful in her wording, but I see those same kinds of disconnects all the time when mainstream media interviews aviation experts after events that cause the public media to suddenly take an interest in aviation.





csodjd said:


> Fair enough... but they aren't rookies, and they know their statements have consequences. She did use the words, "very rare." How is any media supposed to take that?


Part of my duties when I worked for a government agencies was providing background information to news reporters. Not only does the media simplify, they will deliberately misstate or misrepresent information to "make a better story".  Those are the very words used by the Sacramento bureau chief for a network affiliated when I challenged him on a false narrative in a story that he knew was untrue.

It's all about page views and click-throughs.


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Part of my duties when I worked for a government agencies was providing background information to news reporters. Not only does the media simplify, they will deliberately misstate or misrepresent information to "make a better story".  Those are the very words used by the Sacramento bureau chief for a network affiliated when I challenged him on a false narrative in a story that he knew was untrue.
> 
> It's all about page views and click-throughs.


Not saying that's not true. I read quite a few articles about myself back when I was a decent golfer and I'd laugh at their wild and almost always incorrect guesses at what club I hit or some other fact. That all said, in this case, WHO hasn't exactly said that the media got it wrong or that they were misquoted. They apologized for THEIR misleading or inarticulate statements.


----------



## JIMinNC

csodjd said:


> Fair enough... but they aren't rookies, and they know their statements have consequences. She did use the words, "very rare." How is any media supposed to take that?



Based on my reading of her original statement and the later clarifications, I think she would still stand by her words that the data she was referencing did show that asymptomatic transmission was indeed "very rare" in those cases. What she either left out, or what was left out of the reporting, was that the limited statistics she was referencing did not conclusively prove anything. So, the words "very rare" were accurate in the context they were used, but not in the broader context in which they were interpreted.



csodjd said:


> Not saying that's not true. I read quite a few articles about myself back when I was a decent golfer and I'd laugh at their wild and almost always incorrect guesses at what club I hit or some other fact. That all said, in this case, WHO hasn't exactly said that the media got it wrong or that they were misquoted. They apologized for THEIR misleading or inarticulate statements.



My suspicion is that most career agency people at places like WHO are taught to accept responsibility when your statements are misconstrued by the media (either by their fault or by yours). Even if what you said was factual - as I believe what Ms. Kerkhove said was - and it was misunderstood by the media, they are taught to take responsibility since they didn't make themselves clear enough. While politicians will often openly criticize the media for reporting they don't like or things they think the media got wrong, career professionals at places like the WHO are usually much more tactful.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> Not saying that's not true. I read quite a few articles about myself back when I was a decent golfer and I'd laugh at their wild and almost always incorrect guesses at what club I hit or some other fact. That all said, in this case, WHO hasn't exactly said that the media got it wrong or that they were misquoted. They apologized for THEIR misleading or inarticulate statements.


Forty years ago, when I was doing that work, there was a pretty clear hierarchy in reporting accuracy in my experience.  Newspapers (this was pre-internet), were generally the best.  There was one reporter for the Sacramento Bee I interacted with regularly who was dedicated to getting the story.  She actually expressed frustration with one our local Sacramento employees who had provided some help to her, that somehow got inverted, and no one contacted her to let her know.  She was a pleasure to work with, and I often went deeper with her when she was looking for information. 

Radio was the next best after print.  Television news was absolutely awful.  All they wanted was a sound bite.  I sat in on an interview one time with my boss that lasted about 30 minutes.  The interview ended when the reporter decided they had gotten the sound bite they wanted that fit the story they wanted to present.  What they showed was about 20 seconds, consisting of the reporter asking a couple of questions, and the answers to the questions were spliced in from different parts of the interview, to make it look as if that was the answer given to the question asked. 

That was when I stopped watching television news.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

JIMinNC said:


> My suspicion is that most career agency people at places like WHO are taught to accept responsibility when your statements are misconstrued by the media (either by their fault or by yours). Even if what you said was factual - as I believe what Ms. Kerkhove said was - and it was misunderstood by the media, they are taught to take responsibility since they didn't make themselves clear enough. While politicians will often openly criticize the media for reporting they don't like or things they think the media got wrong, career professionals at places like the WHO are usually much more tactful.


When I was doing the work mentioned above, there were only certain people who were allowed to be recorded.   We were slightly less strict with radio than television.

Later in my career, when I was in a different position, I participated in a training session given by some ex-network news producers, on being interviewed by a television news reporter.  Very interesting.  It all came down to sound bites.


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> When I was doing the work mentioned above, there were only certain people who were allowed to be recorded.   We were slightly less strict with radio than television.
> 
> Later in my career, when I was in a different position, I participated in a training session given by some ex-network news producers, on being interviewed by a television news reporter.  Very interesting.  It all came down to sound bites.


Yes. I learned that long ago too. I watched a couple of TV interviews of myself and was duly unimpressed with how they reduced a 15 minute interview to 10-15 seconds and created an impression that was quite wrong. At least live TV provided an accurate forum.


----------



## JIMinNC

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Television news was absolutely awful.  All they wanted was a sound bite.



I concur with your assessment of TV news, particularly local TV news. Several years ago I was in the media area at an airshow working for our aviation print publication. Also there was a local TV reporter and a cameraman. For most of the 3+ hour airshow, the reporter was fretting to her cameraman that one of her fellow reporters got to cover a double homicide on the other side of town and she was stuck at the airshow. She lamented that the other reporter would undoubtedly get the lead story on the 6pm newscast, and unless "we are lucky enough to get a crash here" she would be relegated to the pre-weather segment. I lost a lot of respect for local news at that moment.


----------



## Yellowfin

https://uhero.hawaii.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PreventionOfTravelRelatedReintroductionCOVID19StateOfHawaii.pdf
		



Prevention of Travelrelated Reintroduction of
COVID-19 Infection in the
State of Hawaii
JUNE 9, 2020
UHERO Brief | UHERO 1
By Tim Brown, Sumner La Croix, and F. DeWolfe Miller

This plan proposes to limit travel-related reintroduction of COVID-19 into Hawaii, averting further
local transmission of the virus from travelers to the community. The plan is epidemiologically sound
and conceptually straightforward. Air passengers cleared to travel by screening for specific markers will
pose a much smaller risk of transmission to Hawaii residents. Individuals clearing both (1) temperature
and symptom screening in their departure city and (2) a COVID-19 test in their departure city will
not be required to quarantine for 14 days on arrival in Hawaii. Specific timelines for testing relative to
embarkation are provided.
Clearance documentation is to be completed electronically, using a mobile phone app linked to a cloud
database for receiving and distributing passenger test results. Results will be maintained confidentially
and only distributed to the passenger, their ticketed airline, home state and Hawaii public health
authorities and, if requested, their private physician. Any person arriving in Hawaii without the required
clearance documentation will be quarantined for 14 days. Hawaii state and county governments will be
required to strengthen quarantine enforcement beyond current levels. Otherwise, large numbers of
passengers will avoid taking a COVID-19 test prior to departure and then attempt to break quarantine in
Hawaii (Halliday 2020). In sum, travelers are required to either test there or be quarantined here.
Is our pre-boarding testing plan likely to work and protect the Hawaii community from a second wave
of COVID-19 infections once tourism restarts? We have three clear conclusions:
•Screening air passengers for high temperatures and COVID-19 symptoms in their departure city
removes about one third of infectious passengers from flights to Hawaii.
•Adding a second screen—testing air passengers for COVID-19 infection with an RT-PCR test in their
departure city—removes 80-90 percent of infectious passengers from flights to Hawaii.
• If tourism resumes with 6,000 visitors arriving daily who are only screened for temperature and
symptoms, we estimate this will lead to 750 additional active infections present in our community
each month among visitors and residents. Adding the second RT-PCR screen reduces additional active
infections each month to 150 people.
HAWAII IS NEAR COVID-19 ELIMINATION, HOW DO WE SUSTAIN THE SUCCESS?
As shown below, the COVID-19 epidemic increased dramatically in late March, followed by an
equally dramatic decrease in mid-April. Ongoing local transmission has remained low since April 24,
2020. By continuing current prevention measures, it would be feasible to effectively eliminate COVID-19
transmission within Hawaii. As travel to Hawaii resumes, ongoing reintroduction of the virus from
returning residents and visitors will make this near elimination very difficult to sustain. 
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 2
Active COVID-19 infection is much more widespread in many of the countries and U.S. states sending
visitors to Hawaii than it is locally. As a result, incoming visitors and Hawaii residents returning from these
locations are likely to have higher levels of infectious COVID-19. As of 17 May 2020 about 0.42 percent of
the U.S. population was estimated to have an active COVID-19 infection (Imperial College 2020). This is six
times higher than the upper bound estimate for Hawaii, 0.07 percent (Imperial College 2020). Specific states
sending large numbers of visitors to Hawaii – California (0.23 percent), Arizona (0.55 percent), Washington
state (0.12 percent), Illinois (1.39 percent), New York (0.43 percent), Texas (0.31 percent) and Colorado (0.82
percent)—all have higher percentages of people infectious with COVID-19. Incoming visitors will obviously
increase the risk of generating community transmission within Hawaii.

THE KEY TO SUSTAINED SUCCESS: PREVENT ENTRY OF ACTIVE COVID-19 INFECTIONS
Given the epidemiological difference between the Hawaii population and the origin populations of our
visitors and returning residents, the key to keeping infections in Hawaii low is to stop incoming travelers
from repeatedly reintroducing COVID-19 to our Islands and reseeding community spread. One effective
way to do this is to test and screen those flying to the Islands for active COVID-19 infection before they can
interact with the people of Hawaii. Before describing the details of the approach, it is useful to consider
some general principles.
Where to test: The goal of pre-flight testing is to keep people actively infected with COVID-19 from
boarding a plane to Hawaii. To maximize its impact on public health, testing for COVID-19 among travelers
must be completed at the point of departure rather than upon arrival in Hawaii. Testing at the point of
departure confers five important benefits:
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 3
• Individuals obtaining test results 24 hours before departure will know their results prior to leaving for
the airport. Those who test positive will remain at home. This will reduce the risk of transmission at
crowded airport check-in, security, and boarding facilities. Airlines and hotels could refund fares and
deposits/prepayments (without penalties) to passengers with positive test results. Hawaiian Airlines has
implemented this policy for passengers with a high temperature or COVID-19 symptoms pre-departure
(O’Connor 2020).
•Pre-departure testing will substantially reduce the chance that a passenger with active infection is on
a flight to Hawaii. This protects the ground crew, other passengers, pilots and flight attendants who
might otherwise be exposed to COVID-19 on the flight. Given the current lax enforcement of passenger
masking policies by most airlines serving Hawaii, this is an important benefit (Mzezewa 2020).
•Pre-departure testing protects employees and other travelers at Hawaii’s arrival terminals by reducing
the number of potentially infected people on incoming flights.
• If passengers were to be tested on arrival to Hawaii and found to be positive, this would require isolation
in Hawaii, imposing substantial financial burdens on the arriving traveler for housing, food, and medical
care. It would also add to the burden on Hawaii’s limited health care facilities.
•Those testing positive prior to departure can more easily rely on their own health insurance coverage,
use their local medical care facilities, and quarantine at home at lower cost than in Hawaii. Detecting
these infections, isolating positive individuals at home, and initiating contact tracing at their point of
origin will also benefit prevention efforts in the passenger’s home community.
When to test: From an epidemiological perspective, testing and obtaining results closer to departure
time reduces the chances that those testing negative will be exposed and infected between when they
take the test and when they depart. While 24 hours from specimen collection to boarding is feasible, it
may be impractical given the current state of testing infrastructure in departure sites and the timing of
early morning and late-night flights. Accordingly, for now a 72-hour pre-departure window is proposed.
This should be sufficient to allow travelers to obtain a test through their own physician, private testing
companies, or public testing sites. In the future, the goal should be to minimize the time between testing
and travel. As testing technologies are improving rapidly, over time this pre-departure testing window can
be shortened as faster and better tests become available.
A PRE-BOARDING TESTING AND SCREENING STRATEGY TO PREVENT COVID-19
REINTRODUCTION
The intended traveler will be asked to undergo a series of screens, tests and declarations to reduce the
likelihood that a passenger with COVID-19 is allowed to board a plane to Hawaii.
First test: fever, symptoms, and declaration. The most frequent symptoms of COVID-19 infection are
fever, cough, and fatigue (CDC 2020). Thus, the first test is for fever using a medical infrared thermometer.
Any temperature above 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) indicates a fever. During the screening
procedure, the tester will note any symptoms and will ask the person “have you been ill lately?” and “do
you feel ill now?” prior to taking their temperature. A declaration will be provided to the tester for the
passenger to read, sign and return affirming the answers to the questions on illness and stating that they are
unaware of any exposure to a known or potential COVID-19 patient and have not been notified of any highrisk community exposures, e.g., being told they are a close contact by local health authorities. The person
testing the passenger will enter to the electronic system: 1) the results of the fever test, 2) any observed 
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 4
COVID-related symptoms or positive responses on the questions regarding illness, and 3) an affirmation
that the declaration has been signed.
The ability of fever and symptom screening to detect COVID-19 infections depends on many factors,
e.g., the proportion of those with active COVID-19 who are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic, the
proportion of those with COVID-19 who develop fever as a symptom, or how far along the individual is in
the course of their illness. The sensitivity of a test is the percent of those with infection detected by the
test. The sensitivity of fever testing for COVID-19 in airports has been modeled to be anywhere from a few
percent to just above fifty percent, but it invariably misses many infections (Gostic 2020, Quilty 2020). In
a real-world example, researchers analyzing the return of residents to Taiwan in Winter 2020 found that
32.7% of those with active COVID-19 infection were picked up through body temperature and symptom
screens on arrival at the airport (Liu et al. 2020). Thus, it seems likely that this first test will only pick up
about one-third of all actively infected individuals.
Table 1: Testing Results With Temperature/Symptoms Test
Number of Passengers 6,000
Test Specificity 0.99
Prevalence (%) 1.0 0.75 0.42 0.2 0.1 0.05
Sensitivity False+ False- False+ False- False+ False- False+ False- False+ False- False+ False0.5 59.4 30.0 59.6 22.5 59.7 12.6 59.9 6.0 59.9 3.0 60.0 1.5
0.45 59.4 33.0 59.6 24.8 59.7 13.9 59.9 6.6 59.9 3.3 60.0 1.7
0.4 59.4 36.0 59.6 27.0 59.7 15.1 59.9 7.2 59.9 3.6 60.0 1.8
0.33 59.4 40.2 59.6 30.2 59.7 16.9 59.9 8.0 59.9 4.0 60.0 2.0
0.3 59.4 42.0 59.6 31.5 59.7 17.6 59.9 8.4 59.9 4.2 60.0 2.1
0.25 59.4 45.0 59.6 33.8 59.7 18.9 59.9 9.0 59.9 4.5 60.0 2.3
True Positive 60 45 25.2 12 6 3
True Negative 5,940 5,955 5,975 5,988 5,994 5,997
Table 2: Testing Results with Sequential Temperature/Symptoms Test and RT-PCR Test
Prevalence 1.0 0.75 0.42 0.2 0.1 0.05
Adj Prev. 0.67 0.5025 0.2814 0.134 0.067 0.0335
Sensitivity False+ False- False+ False- False+ False- False+ False- False+ False- False+ False0.99 58.8 0.3 59.0 0.2 59.2 0.1 59.3 0.1 59.3 0.0 59.4 0.0
0.95 58.8 1.7 59.0 1.2 59.2 0.7 59.3 0.3 59.3 0.2 59.4 0.1
0.9 58.8 3.6 59.0 2.7 59.2 1.5 59.3 0.7 59.3 0.4 59.4 0.2
0.85 58.8 8.0 59.0 6.0 59.2 3.4 59.3 1.6 59.3 0.8 59.4 0.4
0.77 58.8 9.7 59.0 7.2 59.2 4.1 59.3 1.9 59.3 1.0 59.4 0.5
0.7 58.8 13.5 59.0 10.1 59.2 5.7 59.3 2.7 59.3 1.4 59.4 0.7
Note: Adjusted Prevalence adjusts number of true positives in sample after temperature/symptoms test that is 33
percent sensitive.
Table 1 provides the results of 36 different temperature/symptom testing scenarios as a function of the
sensitivity of the test, the level of active COVID-19 infection in the tested population and the specificity of
the test (the percentage of uninfected passengers who are correctly identified by the test). For discussion
purposes, we focus on one example that reasonably reflects the current situation and expectations for the
impact of this first testing procedure.
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 5
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE OF THE LIMITED IMPACT OF FEVER/SYMPTOM TESTING AS TOURISM
RECOVERS
Given general concerns about COVID-19, the economic impact of the epidemic on the US, and the fear
many have of flying under current conditions, we examine a scenario in which tourism initially recovers
to only one-fifth of its previous levels. Thus, instead of 30,000 passenger arrivals a day, assume that
6,000 arrivals occur each day. Further assume that a little less than half a percent, 0.42 percent, of these
passengers have active COVID infections. This is the estimated level of infectious individuals in the USA on
17 May 2020 (Imperial College 2020). Without any screening there would be roughly 25 people with active
COVID-19 infections arriving each day, a combination of tourists, returning residents, and airline crew. With
no screening this would mean approximately 750 infected passengers arriving each month.
If we assume a first test is done with fever and symptom screening that detects one-third of the
infected, and these individuals do not travel, then the daily influx is reduced to about 17 passengers
unknowingly infected with COVID-19 or about 500 a month. At present, estimates from different models for
the reproduction rate (Rt
), that is the number of people infected by each infected individual vary from 0.5
to 0.9 for Hawaii (Imperial College 2020, COVID Act Now). If the 14-day quarantine for incoming travelers
is lifted entirely, and we make the conservative assumption that each incoming infection only generates
0.5 additional infections because incoming travelers practice good social distancing and wear masks during
their entire stay, this would add an additional 250 infections a month. This gives us a total of 750 COVID-19
infections in Hawaii per month with a resumption of tourism and only temperature/symptom screening in
place. Such a burden will quickly overwhelm our capacity.
These calculations have been made under the assumption of 6,000 arriving passengers a day, only
20 percent of Hawaii’s 30,000 arriving passengers per day in 2019. If the number of incoming passengers
doubles to 12,000, then the number of infections among tourists and returning residents and the number of
infections generated in the community could also be expected to double. For those who doubt the incoming
burden of COVID-19 can be this high, consider that there were 178 travel-related cases identified in Hawaii
in the last half of March, when passenger flows were already rapidly falling, the quarantine requirements
were being put into place, and the caseloads in the continental United States were still rising.
A second test: an RT-PCR test for active COVID-19 infection. The above analysis illustrates that a
fever/symptom screening check alone is inadequate to staunch the influx of infections into our community
if tourism recovers even partially and the quarantine requirement is removed.
To address this, a second test for the presence of active COVID-19 viral infection is essential. Tests
for viral infection are typically done using either the RT-PCR test or the antigen test. Our proposal is to
use the RT-PCR test because this test is currently more sensitive (i.e., better at detecting infections) and
specific (i.e., less likely to falsely identify someone as infected) than the antigen tests. With an RT-PCR test,
a nasopharyngeal specimen from each nostril is amplified by RT-PCR (taking about 45 minutes) allowing
the direct detection of virus nucleic acid. This is currently the standard test used to detect current active
infections for diagnostic purposes.
One of the characteristics making COVID-19 difficult to control is that a significant proportion of those
with COVID-19 infection are either asymptomatic throughout the course of their infection or in a presymptomatic phase that averages about five days. The fever/symptom test would miss these people, but this
second RT-PCR test will detect most of these asymptomatic infections. Without it, almost all of them would
be permitted to board their flight to Hawaii. Anyone testing positive on this test should be denied boarding,
immediately seek medical advice, and self-isolate to protect their home community.
Table 2 provides the results of 36 different testing scenarios where both the fever/symptom test and the
RT-PCR test are applied sequentially. It assumes the fever/symptom check detects one-third of those with 
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 6
active infection and then applies the RT-PCR test to the remaining potential passengers. (Passengers with
fevers will still have an RT-PCR screening despite being unable to travel.) As with Table 1, it depends on the
sensitivity and specificity of the RT-PCR test and the overall prevalence in the population being tested. As
before, the following discussion focuses on one example that reasonably represents the current situation
and the expectation for the impact of the first test procedure.
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE OF COMBINED IMPACT OF BOTH TESTS IN REDUCING COVID-19 REINTRODUCTIONS
When correctly administered, the RT-PCR test has a sensitivity of 75 to 85 percent, identifying from 75
to 85 percent of active infections. Extending the previous example, assume that the infectious percentage
of passengers is the 0.42 percent average for the US. With 6,000 passengers per day, about 25 of them are
actively infected with COVID-19 and the fever/symptom test will remove one-third of them, leaving about
17 per day. If the RT-PCR test is then 80 percent sensitive, it will detect 13.7 of them, leaving about 3.3 per
day to board the plane. This works out to roughly 100 per month arriving in Hawaii. If they each generate
another 0.5 infections, we end up with only about 150 new active infections each month present in Hawaii.
Consider this summary of the results:
•If no testing is done, then 750 incoming passengers with COVID-19 infection would result in 375
additional infections among visitors and residents, which equates to 1125 new active infections per
month.
•If only temperature and symptom screening is used, then 500 incoming passengers with COVID-19
infection would result in 250 additional infections among visitors and residents, which equates to 750
new active infections per month.
•If both tests are used, 100 incoming COVID-infected passengers would result in 50 new infections
among visitors and residents, which equates to 150 new active infections per month.
What if the population of air passengers is substantially less likely to be infected with COVID-19 than
the overall population in any given state? In this case, the numbers of new infections introduced by air
passengers would fall proportionately, e.g., a 10 percent reduction in the percent of infected travelers would
reduce the active infections described by 10 percent.
FALSE POSITIVE TEST RESULTS
If the test is 99 percent specific, then one percent, roughly 60 people, of the 6,000 taking the test
daily will have positive test results when they are actually free of infection. To reduce this number of false
positives, we recommend immediate RT-PCR rescreening which will substantially reduce the number
of false positives. But for those uninfected who continue to test positive, there will be a requirement to
quarantine for 14 days at home, with the concomitant lost income, mental stress, and other costs of a 14-
day isolation. However, this is counterbalanced by the public health benefits to their home communities of
identifying 650 people who are truly infected with COVID-19 and moving them into a 14-day isolation. With
the average reproduction rate (Rt = 1) in the United States, this will avert an additional 650 infections in their
communities each month or 7,800 COVID-19 infections per year.
In sum, keeping infected people off planes flying to Hawaii is not free. The two screening tests use
scarce resources and some healthy people are unnecessarily quarantined. However, these are costs that
some visitors are almost certainly willing to pay for the chance to visit a very healthy Hawaii.
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 7
LOCATIONS WITH LOW COVID-19 PREVALENCE
Given the COVID-19 infectivity levels in the United States in mid-May 2020, testing of air passengers
will clearly be productive in reducing the number of active COVID-19 infections coming into the State.
However, when the percentage of active COVID-19 infection falls below 0.1 percent, the testing procedure
will avert only a small handful of infections. Consider New Zealand, a nation of 4.8 million people which
has not reported a COVID-19 case since May 15, or South Korea, a nation of 51.6 million people reporting an
average of 33 cases a day since May 15. In both countries, the percent of infectious people is less than 1/10th
of one percent and less than or equal to the percent of infectious people in the overall Hawaii population.
The last panel of Table 2 shows that the RT-PCR testing prevents relatively few arrivals of air passengers
infected with COVID-19 at these low prevalence levels. Resources could then be more efficiently used to
control sporadic transmission of the virus among residents and tourists here in Hawaii. Proposals that allow
residents of New Zealand, South Korea, and Australia—all places with levels of prevalence equal to or less
than the levels of prevalence in Hawaii—to enter Hawaii with just temperature-symptoms screening look
promising as long as low levels of prevalence persist in these places. Entry from these countries should,
however, be restricted to residents of the country to prevent residents of countries with higher prevalence
from transiting through lower prevalence countries to enter Hawaii. In addition, screening questionnaires
should include information on all recent travel outside of the resident’s country of origin. Finally, decisions
on countries included in travel corridors should be dependent on current data on infection rates in each
country, and should be updated regularly.
Could residents of Japan enter Hawaii without RT-PCR testing? Japan, a nation of 130 million people, has
reported between 14 and 89 cases daily since May 13, but also has done extremely little testing, just 314,483
tests as of 7 June 2020. Before Japanese residents are admitted to Hawaii without RT-PCR testing, Hawaii
authorities should obtain better estimates (perhaps from recent Japanese sentinel surveillance testing) of
the percent of Japan’s population currently infectious with COVID-19.
TRAVEL REQUIREMENTS AND COVID-19 TRAVEL DOCUMENTS
Passengers would be notified during the process of purchasing their air ticket to Hawaii of required
testing or quarantine protocols. They would be asked to acknowledge their acceptance of these protocols
and informed to register on the safetravels.hawaii.gov website.
Travelers will be expected to follow all standard COVID-19 prevention precautions in place. All travelers
must be masked while waiting inside the departure airport terminal, on boarding, in flight, and upon arrival.
Boarding and in-flight policies are under airline control, which have all adopted mask wearing policies for
passengers and staff but unfortunately chosen not to enforce them. Arrival policies are under the control of
Hawaii authorities and masks are required in Hawaii airports.
The travel documents necessary should be completed electronically prior to boarding and, if at all
possible, during the on-line check-in process at home. All test results (temperature, symptoms check,
questionnaire and declaration and RT-PCR) are sent by the person administering the test to a secured and
confidential cloud database, with results only accessible to the passenger, the passenger’s airline and home
state and Hawaii health authorities.
TEST, CONTACT TRACING, AND FOLLOW-UP – THE BACKUP
Even if the proposed testing protocols are applied uniformly, some infected asymptomatic people will
still enter Hawaii and potentially spread infection. Temperature and symptom screening combined with
RT-PCR testing will detect most, but not all currently active COVID-19 infections. However, if tourists, 
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 8
returning residents and airline crew maintain social distancing practices and wear masks in public places,
transmission of the virus could be minimal. Accordingly, educational information and videos should be
provided on the plane informing visitors of Hawaii’s policies for COVID-19 prevention and asking for their
aloha in complying with them. Hawaii authorities must also have the capacity to rapidly identify infections
and respond immediately through testing and surveillance. A sound surveillance system that monitors highrisk settings in the tourism industry is important for anticipating and stemming transmission. Relevant
populations for surveillance include any workers with frequent contact with visitors, such as restaurant
servers, front desk staff, housekeepers, and any other high-contact occupations. Any of these workers
developing potentially COVID-19 related symptoms should be offered testing, followed by aggressive contact
tracing and workplace testing.
Surveillance must be accompanied by rapid testing of possible cases and identification of close contacts.
Contact tracing by Hawaii health authorities enables close contacts to be quickly identified, tested, and
isolated. Sufficient capacity must be in place to monitor their symptoms and compliance with isolation
orders. State authorities also must have capacity to analyze outbreak data and to communicate information
about the outbreak to the public.
There needs to be a single clear communication mechanism that reaches both the Hawaii public and
visitors via a variety of sources including phone apps and texts. The public needs to know what is happening,
the settings in which COVID-19 transmission is occurring, and be given clear guidance on the measures they
can take to reduce transmission of COVID-19 among tourists, tourism workers, and the general public. The
State of Hawaii and the tourism industry need to engage and enlist visitors and residents to maintain social
distancing and to wear masks in public spaces. It is important for tourists to understand why they need to
wear masks to protect tourism industry workers and the vulnerable in Hawaii. Passengers should be given
the opportunity when they complete the travel clearance documents before departure to install an app on
their phone that will notify them if they have been in close contact with an infected person while in Hawaii.
Arriving passengers who did not install the app could be asked again to install it or face quarantine.
COMPREHENSIVE SCREENING
The purpose of our analysis is to minimize the number of incoming airline passengers infected with
COVID-19 who disembark in Hawaii. It is critical that comprehensive policies be developed that address
numerous other groups of people who regularly arrive in Hawaii. They include airplane pilots and related
airplane crew, cruise ship passengers and crew, longshoremen moving from US mainland to ports in Hawaii,
and moving between islands on commercial shipping. The airline and shipping industry have addressed
this situation via standing orders to their employees, some of which involve quarantine during layovers
in Hawaii. Currently our local pilots and crew, who continue to fly trans-Pacific flights and provide vital
service, have been given strict guidelines by their respective airlines on how to disembark, eat, and sleep at
foreign and mainland destinations without having to be tested or quarantined on return to Hawaii.
FUTURE TESTING PROTOCOLS
There is rapid development in COVID-19 testing that will greatly improve the accuracy of all types
of COVID-19 tests. It is critical that we monitor developments and adapt the protocols proposed here
as the situation evolves, an example of which would be new viral antigen tests. Antibody tests could also
become part of a future testing protocol as more accurate tests emerge. Currently there is no COVID-19
vaccine. When a validated vaccine for preventing infection with COVID-19 becomes widely available, our
recommendations will, of course, be modified.
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 9
TO MAKE HAWAII A COVID-SAFE DESTINATION, KEEP EXTERNAL INFECTIONS OUT
Quarantines to keep infected travelers from interacting with the community, coupled with stay-at-home
orders, social distancing, and masking have reduced new COVID-19 infections in the Islands to a trickle. If
Hawaii reopens to tourism, even at 20 percent of previous levels, hundreds of people with active COVID-19
infections can be expected to enter each month. This will make it hard, if not impossible, to maintain our
success against this epidemic and may push us past the tipping point.
Currently discussed strategies of temperature and symptom screening without testing for active
COVID-19 infection can only detect about a third of these infections. A two-step strategy, combining fever
and symptom testing with pre-flight RT-PCR testing, can cut these numbers by 80-90 percent. At these
reduced levels, an active testing, contact tracing and isolation program combined with continued social
distancing and masking should allow us to maintain epidemic containment. Testing travelers coming to our
Islands is essential to keeping us an attractive COVID-safe destination for tourists and to achieving a strong
Hawaii economy.
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 10
SUPPORTING MATERIALS INCLUDING REFERENCES
Andres Hernandez, Esteban Correa-Agudelo, Hana Kim, Adam J Branscum, F.
DeWolfe Miller, Neil MacKinnon, Diego F Cuadros (2020). On the impact of early non-pharmaceutical
interventions as containment strategies against the COVID-19 pandemic. 2020. Last access on 7 June 2020.





						On the impact of early non-pharmaceutical interventions as containment strategies against the COVID-19 pandemic
					

Background The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, China and has spread since then to around 210 countries and territories by April 2020. Consequently, countries have adopted physical distance measures in an attempt to mitigate the uncontrolled spread of...




					www.medrxiv.org
				



.
Sang Il Kim, and Ji Yong Lee. Walk-Through Screening Center for COVID-19: An Accessible and Efficient
Screening System in a Pandemic. J Korean Med Sci. 2020 Apr 20;35(15):e154 Last access on 8 June 2020.








						Walk-Through Screening Center for COVID-19: an Accessible and Efficient Screening System in a Pandemic Situation
					

Kim SI, et al. J Korean Med Sci. 2020 Apr;35(15):e154. https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e154




					doi.org
				



Tim Halliday (2020), The Hotel Room Tax Should be Raised – A Lot, Civil Beat, 17 May 2020. Last access on 8
June 2020. https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/05/the-hotel-tax-should-be-raised-a-lot/
Katelyn Gostic et al. (2020). Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of
COVID-19. eLife 2020;9:e55570 DOI: 10.7554/eLife.55570 Last access on 8 June 2020. https://elifesciences.
org/articles/55570v1
Annelies Wilder-Smith, Calvin J. Chiew, and Vernon J. Lee (2020). Can we contain the COVID-19 outbreak
with the same measures as for SARS? Lancet Infectious Diseases; 20: e102–07. Last access on 8 June 2020.


			https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30129-8.pdf
		

RT-PCR screening sensitivity: Wenling Wang, Yanli Xu, Ruqin Gao et al. (2020). Detection of SARS-CoV-2
in Different Types of Clinical Specimens. Journal of the American Medical Association;323(18):1843-1844.
doi:10.1001/jama.2020.3786 Last access on 8 June 2020. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/
fullarticle/2762997
RT-PCR screening sensitivity: Wei-jie Guan, Zheng-yi Ni, Yu Hu et al., for the China Medical Treatment
Expert Group for Covid-19 (2020). Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China. New
England Journal of Medicine 382:1708-1720. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 Last access on 8 June 2020.


			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
		

H. Juliette Unwin, Swapnil Mishra, and Valerie C Bradley et al. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United
States (21-05-2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/79231. Last access on 8 June 2020.
Reference for daily cases in New Zealand: Ministry of Health, New Zealand. COVID-19 – current case details.
At https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work...id19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases. Last access on 8 June 2020.
Reference for daily cases in Japan: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ Last
access on 8 June 2020.
Reference for daily cases in South Korea: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/southkorea/ Last access on 8 June 2020.
Jui-Yao Liu, Tzeng-Ji Chen, and Shinn-Jang Hwang (2020). Analysis of Imported Cases of COVID-19 in
Taiwan: A Nationwide Study. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health; 17, 3311; doi:10.3390/ijerph17093311 Last
access on 8 June 2020. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7246949/
CDC (2020). Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease
(COVID-19). Accessed on the web on June 6 2020: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/
clinical-guidance-management-patients.html.
B.J. Quilty et al. (2020). Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with novel
coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Euro Surveillance; 25(5)ii=2000080. Last access on 8 June 2020. https://doi.
org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000080
UHERO PREVENTION OF TRAVEL-RELATED REINTRODUCTION OF COVID-19 PAGE 11
Christina O’Connor, A look at Hawaiian Airlines’ new cleaning and social distancing guidelines.” Pacific
Business News, 5 June 2020: p. 4. Last access on 8 June 2020. https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/
news/2020/06/03/hawaiian-airlines-adjustments-covid-19.html
Mzezewa, Tariro (2020). Airlines Say Everybody Onboard Must Wear a Mask. So Why Aren’t They? New
York Times, 4 June 2020. Last access on 8 June 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/travel/
coronavirus-flying-face-masks.html
Additional references on U.S. airlines’ failure to enforce their own mask wearing policies.
•https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/business/airlines-mask-policy-enforcement/index.html Last
access on 8 June 2020.
•https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-force-passengers-to-wear-masks-idUSKBN22O349 Last access on 8 June 2020.
•https://www.newsweek.com/airline-pa...e-mask-policies-arenot-being-enforced-1506613 Last access on 8 June 2020.
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the East-West
Center or the University of Hawaii.
UHERO BRIEFS ARE CIRCULATED TO STIMULATE DISCUSSION AND CRITICAL COMMENT. THE VIEWS
EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE INDIVIDUAL AUTHORS.
About the Authors
Sumner La Croix is Professor Emeritus from UH-Mānoa Economics and a Research Fellow at the
University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.
Tim Brown is a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center.
F. DeWolfe Miller is Professor Emeritus from the John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of
Hawaii.


----------



## Yellowfin

Report: Screening visitors for temps, symptoms would miss two thirds of infections
					

“Testing travelers coming to our islands is essential to keeping us an attractive COVID-safe destination for tourists and to achieving a strong Hawaii economy,”




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


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## DeniseM

Did anyone actually read post 582? - AKA the Coronavirus War and Peace.     

Friendly request - rather than copying and pasting an entire document, please just post a few lines, and then post the line.


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## echino

I read it all. It's a study. Any future policies on reopening tourism in Hawaii may or may not take that study into consideration.


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## DeniseM

I'm impressed!


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## Yellowfin

I actually read it too. It is very interesting but it will probably be challenged by peers.  It seems to cherry pick data to support its conclusion that  opening the state without testing will lead to a certain number of new cases. The premise is that around 0.4% of those that visit the islands would be positive. Hard to believe it is true. If this were true, California would have almost 150,000  active cases which is certainly not the case.

I also do not think anyone with  symptoms would travel these days. Maybe it was happening back in February or March when people did not know about it but I do not think it is possible today. That means that most of those infected that would come to Hawaii would be asymptomatic but the study does not look at that possibility.


----------



## MommaBear

Yellowfin said:


> ... I also do not think anyone with  symptoms would travel these days. Maybe it was happening back in February or March when people did not know about it but I do not think it is possible today. That means that most of those infected that would come to Hawaii would be asymptomatic but the study does not look at that possibility.



I wish people had common sense and courtesy not to travel with symptoms. There was a woman who worked as a hairdresser with symptoms for 8 days. I would be more reassured if people did have to be tested first. I would be more comfortable traveling there myself. I have a flight from Newark to HNL planned in November and this makes me cautiously optimistic.


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## Yellowfin

MommaBear said:


> I wish people had common sense and courtesy not to travel with symptoms. There was a woman who worked as a hairdresser with symptoms for 8 days. I would be more reassured if people did have to be tested first. I would be more comfortable traveling there myself. I have a flight from Newark to HNL planned in November and this makes me cautiously optimistic.


yes the media found that hairdresser who worked with symptoms. We do know much about the other 2 million people who got infected in the US.

I am not saying there is nobody who will travel with any symptoms, I just think it is very unlikely and will probably be identified by airport staff before departure, passengers or  airplane crew before getting to the destination.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> I actually read it too. It is very interesting but it will probably be challenged by peers.  It seems to cherry pick data to support its conclusion that  opening the state without testing will lead to a certain number of new cases. The premise is that around 0.4% of those that visit the islands would be positive. Hard to believe it is true. If this were true, California would have almost 150,000  active cases which is certainly not the case.
> 
> I also do not think anyone with  symptoms would travel these days. Maybe it was happening back in February or March when people did not know about it but I do not think it is possible today. That means that most of those infected that would come to Hawaii would be asymptomatic but the study does not look at that possibility.


First, as I understand it, government officials in Hawaii do consider, consult with, and to some extent rely upon the UHERO. So I'd consider this to be at least influential. Second, it certainly has assumptions, as all reports of this kind do. It's akin to a business pro forma. It's an epidemiological pro forma.

Two assumptions stick out to me as being perhaps incomplete. One is mentioned above -- people with symptoms are more likely to self-cancel their plans. Not 100%, but more likely. Thus, the number of patients with symptoms presenting at the airport would be less than the number existing in the general population. Second, they assume an overall prevalence rate of 0.42%. which they say is, "the estimated level of infectious individuals in the USA on 17 May 2020." However, there is not an equal distribution of individuals in the USA able or inclined to travel to Hawaii. That 0.42% is weighted toward lower-income urban individuals where community spread is more prevalent. Consider food processing factories, for instance. Also, individuals in elder care facilities. Moreover, geographically, more from the West travel to Hawaii than from the East. So prevalence in North Carolina and Florida, for instance, is far less relevant than prevalence in California. Just like a political poll is more relevant if it is of "likely voters" than just people over 18, the prevalence of "likely travelers to Hawaii" is likely far below the 0.42% and that has a big impact on their numbers. (They have the data showing where Hawaii travelers from the US come from, so it would have been nice to take that into consideration. Data shows more than twice as many visitors from the West than the East, 4.6M v 2.2M. https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/research/monthly-visitor-statistics/)

What I get mostly out of that analysis are their conclusions that, except where COVID prevalence is already very low, TWO pre-entry screenings are necessary: PCR test and symptom screening. Either alone is not good enough. In low prevalence areas, like New Zealand, symptom screening is probably enough. Here is their ultimate conclusion:

_A two-step strategy, combining fever and symptom testing with pre-flight RT-PCR testing, can cut these numbers [of infected people entering the state] by 80-90 percent. At these reduced levels, an active testing, contact tracing and isolation program combined with continued social distancing and masking should allow us to maintain epidemic containment. Testing travelers coming to our Islands is essential to keeping us an attractive COVID-safe destination for tourists and to achieving a strong Hawaii economy._


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## Yellowfin

I think the study will be used to justify political decisions that have been made already, I heard the governor several times mentioning numbers that seemed extracted from this study. Probably he had it before it was public.

You are right, the two assumptions may be quite a bit off. They used the prevalence data from a month ago even if they could have just easily updated the numbers when they published it Yesterday. Probably they did not want to change the conclusions of the study as well! I clicked on the link they posted, the Imperial College no longer mentions the prevalence numbers so I wonder how accurate they were. 

The notion that those sick and tested will get off their hospital beds and homes to travel to Hawaii is not credible. To justify their numbers, they should have at least attempted to eliminate those. The vast majority of those that know they are sick will not travel for a number of reasons.  Those that may be at the onset, not sure or do not know they have Covid may still embark on a plane. My non-scientific estimate is that the study may be off by a factor of 10-20 times.


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## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> those that know they are sick will not travel for a number of reasons


Who wants to spend their vacation sick in a hotel/TS room? We all want to be home and in our own bed when we're sick. Even more so where there is some risk that it could require hospitalization.


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## Luanne

csodjd said:


> Who wants to spend their vacation sick in a hotel/TS room? We all want to be home and in our own bed when we're sick. Even more so where there is some risk that it could require hospitalization.


I have traveled sick a few times in my life.  Mostly because I needed to get to where I was going.  When I was 8 my family took a train trip from Los Angeles to Chicago.  I was sicker than a dog the whole way out.  I don't know if there was any discussion of postponing or cancelling the trip.  

Most of the times I've traveled sick was when I was returning home, not usually on the way to a vacation.


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## Yellowfin

Luanne said:


> I have traveled sick a few times in my life.  Mostly because I needed to get to where I was going.  When I was 8 my family took a train trip from Los Angeles to Chicago.  I was sicker than a dog the whole way out.  I don't know if there was any discussion of postponing or cancelling the trip.
> 
> Most of the times I've traveled sick was when I was returning home, not usually on the way to a vacation.


Travelling sick and travelling knowing you would potentially transmit to others a deadly virus are two very different things.


----------



## Luanne

Yellowfin said:


> Travelling sick and travelling knowing you would potentially transmit to others a deadly virus are two very different things.


My post was in response to "Who wants to spend their vacation sick in a hotel/TS room? etc"

If I were now placed in the position of thinking I could be carrying a potentially deadly virus I would most definitely cancel the trip.


----------



## JIMinNC

Also, using prevalence rates on a state level can be seriously misleading. Upstate New York or the Upper Peninsula of Michigan have much lower prevalence than New York City and Detroit. Rural northern California has a lower prevalence than Los Angeles County. Here in North Carolina, prevalence rates in suburban Charlotte-area counties are less than Charlotte-Mecklenburg itself. In Florida, Miami-Dade has about four-times the rate of infection as Orange County (Orlando). So just looking at which state Hawaii travelers come from could easily paint a misleading picture.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> Also, using prevalence rates on a state level can be seriously misleading. Upstate New York or the Upper Peninsula of Michigan have much lower prevalence than New York City and Detroit. Rural northern California has a lower prevalence than Los Angeles County. Here in North Carolina, prevalence rates in suburban Charlotte-area counties are less than Charlotte-Mecklenburg itself. In Florida, Miami-Dade has about four-times the rate of infection as Orange County (Orlando). So just looking at which state Hawaii travelers come from could easily paint a misleading picture.


True, to be sure. However, using Country rates is even more misleading. Comparing South Korea to the United States is silly. But there are practical limits too. They cannot really manage at the level of the County. They can use things like a driver's license as proof of state of residence (not 100% perfect of course, but close). But all that misses the point. I was only pointing out that in broad terms, 2/3 of those going to Hawaii are from the West US, 1/3 from the East. So geographic prevalence adjustment is warranted, as well as socio-economic status.


----------



## Yellowfin

As anticipated, a day after the faulty study, the political decision. 









						Ige extends 14-day quarantine for out-of-state arrivals in Hawaii through July 31 - Hawaii Tribune-Herald
					

Gov. David Ige said this afternoon he has signed a new supplemental emergency proclamation that will extend the mandatory 14-day quarantine on out-of-state travelers from June 30 to July 31.




					www.hawaiitribune-herald.com


----------



## csodjd

Hopefully that time will be used to develop and begin implementing a thorough plan for opening up Aug 1. Perhaps providing an update by the end of June.


----------



## DeniseM

The quarantine is not going to be lifted in August - you heard it here first.


----------



## Yellowfin

In addition to temperature scanners they are also working on introducing facial recognition at the airport. The governor gave a rather unconvincing explanation about why they need to spend resources on this.


----------



## Fredflintstone

DeniseM said:


> The quarantine is not going to be lifted in August - you heard it here first.



Sigh, it’s looking more and more like I may need to cancel my trip to Honolulu in December. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## JIMinNC

DeniseM said:


> The quarantine is not going to be lifted in August - you heard it here first.



Sadly, I think you are correct. The Hawaiian economy may take a decade to recover from the perpetual quarantine. It seems they are intent on keeping the islands COVID-free. If they stick to that standard, they will not be able to accept visitors for a year, two years, or longer. The LtGov seems much more open to restarting tourism than the Governor, but Ige seems stuck in quarantine mode. The hospitality industry must not have much sway with the Gov.


----------



## klpca

csodjd said:


> Now comes the real test, as that seemed pretty obvious. Next question is, how long before he tells us what August 1 will bring.


I'm fine with whatever they decide but I wish that they would be more forthcoming with their intent in a more timely fashion so that those of us with reservations can cancel. We are just waiting for that to happen to move forward.


----------



## PigsDad

klpca said:


> I'm fine with whatever they decide but I wish that they would be more forthcoming with their intent in a more timely fashion so that those of us with reservations can cancel. We are just waiting for that to happen to move forward.


The governor obviously doesn't care about tourists nor the tourism industry, so I don't see him having any incentives to be more forthcoming with his announcements of the continuation of his quarantines.  Sad, but quite obvious.

Kurt


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> The quarantine is not going to be lifted in August - you heard it here first.


I'll go the other way. Based on the UH report, testing is not needed if you are coming from one of the several countries with infection rates lower than Hawaii, because the chance of finding a "positive" are very remote if there are only a handful of cases in the entire country. So my guess is about July 7 or so he announces he is starting there Aug 1, while the testing is still being set up. SK, NZ and AUS can come, with pre-flight temperature check and symptoms questionnaire, and temperature check on arrival. By Sept. 1, they have the testing systems in place and are following the UH report protocol to allow others in. 

However, if there is a resurgence, all bets are off.

Totally guessing. But hoping too.


----------



## TXTortoise

Has anyone seen a discussion on how someone will be quarantined if they present with symptoms, let’s say 3 days into a seven day trip?  Assuming they have to checkout of their room at seven days, where do they go?  They certainly can’t fly home If they have a fever and I’m guessing checking in to another hotel is problematic. Hospitalization usually occurs over a longer term, and may not be required.


----------



## Tamaradarann

TXTortoise said:


> Has anyone seen a discussion on how someone will be quarantined if they present with symptoms, let’s say 3 days into a seven day trip?  Assuming they have to checkout of their room at seven days, where do they go?  They certainly can’t fly home If they have a fever and I’m guessing checking in to another hotel is problematic. Hospitalization usually occurs over a longer term, and may not be required.



I would assume that the Hotel or Resort would be required to keep that person in that room for the quarantined period.  It would be as if the unit was out of order similar to a maintenance issue.   I don't know how the payment of the accomodations would be handled.  If new guests needed to be placed in that unit they would need to be given alternate accommodations.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I'll go the other way. Based on the UH report, testing is not needed if you are coming from one of the several countries with infection rates lower than Hawaii, because the chance of finding a "positive" are very remote if there are only a handful of cases in the entire country. So my guess is about July 7 or so he announces he is starting there Aug 1, while the testing is still being set up. SK, NZ and AUS can come, with pre-flight temperature check and symptoms questionnaire, and temperature check on arrival. By Sept. 1, they have the testing systems in place and are following the UH report protocol to allow others in.
> 
> However, if there is a resurgence, all bets are off.
> 
> Totally guessing. But hoping too.



Those are pretty good guesses.  We are cancelling our Plan A September reservations since if they only open up to domestic guests on September 1 we want to have some time to see the impact before placing our bodies in the mix.  We are hoping for Plan B, mid November, but will start to work on a plan C.  PLan D is already in place.  We would skip 2020 and winter of 2021 and perhaps look at Fall 2021.


----------



## bbodb1

PigsDad said:


> The governor obviously doesn't care about tourists nor the tourism industry, so I don't see him having any incentives to be more forthcoming with his announcements of the continuation of his quarantines.  Sad, but quite obvious.
> 
> Kurt


..or apparently his state finances.


----------



## csodjd

bbodb1 said:


> ..or apparently his state finances.


I wonder if things will change when Federal money to the unemployed runs out at the end of July.


----------



## bbodb1

csodjd said:


> I wonder if things will change when Federal money to the unemployed runs out at the end of July.


I suspect there will be a correlation..a strong correlation.....


----------



## Yellowfin

As of July 1st, travelers to Maine can forgo the quarantine if they have a negative Covid test. This puts even more pressure on Hawaii that just extended the measures until July 30th. 









						Beginning July 1, out-of-state visitors with recent negative test may forgo quarantine - Mount Desert Islander
					

AUGUSTA — The state has unveiled a proposed alternative to the 14-day quarantine for out-of-state visitors in an attempt to salvage the summer season




					www.mdislander.com


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> As of July 1st, travelers to Maine can forgo the quarantine if they have a negative Covid test. This puts even more pressure on Hawaii that just extended the measures until July 30th.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Beginning July 1, out-of-state visitors with recent negative test may forgo quarantine - Mount Desert Islander
> 
> 
> AUGUSTA — The state has unveiled a proposed alternative to the 14-day quarantine for out-of-state visitors in an attempt to salvage the summer season
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mdislander.com


Doesn't seem like the Hawaii Governor is affected much by "pressure."


----------



## csodjd

TXTortoise said:


> Has anyone seen a discussion on how someone will be quarantined if they present with symptoms, let’s say 3 days into a seven day trip?  Assuming they have to checkout of their room at seven days, where do they go?  They certainly can’t fly home If they have a fever and I’m guessing checking in to another hotel is problematic. Hospitalization usually occurs over a longer term, and may not be required.


It's a great question. Haven't seen anything, but I'd imaging it would be the obligation of the individual to find a place to go. It's not the hotel's problem to deal with. I'm sure if they have rooms available, or even the current room, they'd be happy to rent it. But if not, at day 7 the individual should just have to find and go directly to another location.


----------



## Yellowfin

csodjd said:


> Doesn't seem like the Hawaii Governor is affected much by "pressure."


Interesting comments on his Facebook page



			https://www.facebook.com/GovernorDavidIge/


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> Interesting comments on his Facebook page
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.facebook.com/GovernorDavidIge/


He says, "We are working very hard toward re-opening out-of-state travel, but we’re not there yet. We are being very cautious." 

There are competing interests: safety v economics. Some states have chosen to focus on protecting the economy at the expense of safety (Georgia, Texas, etc.). Others, notably Hawaii and NY, have chosen to focus on safety. Many try to find a balance in the middle without going too far to one side or the other, which is probably the best approach, even if perfection is unattainable. 

Governor Ige's approach, which he admits is "very cautious," risks irreparable economic harm to both the state and it's residents because it appears to make no compromise to protect economic interests.  It is "all in" on safety. But, the Fed gave him some time to take that approach by providing money to the unemployed. When that ends, people are going to suffer. I suspect he knows that and that's why I think Aug 1 will see him shift more to the middle. If that doesn't happen Hawaii may never be able to fully recover because workers may leave to go where they can work and not live in poverty or homeless.


----------



## Yellowfin

One more month will change nothing in terms of the dynamic of the virus. They will probably have even more cases due to the riots so go justify opening then. A month only buys them time logistically but that shows how unprepared they are, how they have wasted the last 3 months. I think for a long time they were in denial and happy not to make a decision.


----------



## Yellowfin

I will let you decide whether C-19 has anything to do with it.









						Suicides Of 4 Young Men In A Week Raise Alarm On Kauai
					

On Kauai, suicide is an old problem. But it's gaining new urgency as the island grapples with a spate of tragic deaths during the coronavirus pandemic.




					www.civilbeat.org


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> It's a great question. Haven't seen anything, but I'd imaging it would be the obligation of the individual to find a place to go. It's not the hotel's problem to deal with. I'm sure if they have rooms available, or even the current room, they'd be happy to rent it. But if not, at day 7 the individual should just have to find and go directly to another location.



We were at the Hilton Hawaiian Village when the first case in Hawaii showed up via a visitor from Japan who came down with the virus after leaving the Grand Waikikian and returning to Japan.  At that time people didn't want to stay anywhere in the Grand Waikikian.  Any staff that came in contact with the room or the vistor were quarantined at home for 14 days and were given paid leave.  For the benefit of the larger community the best thing would be to quarantine the infected person in the same room to limit further spread of the virus.  Leaving it up to the person to find accomodations somewhere else so that they could spread the virus to at least one other location and perhaps more in the performance of the relocation would not be wise.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> We were at the Hilton Hawaiian Village when the first case in Hawaii showed up via a visitor from Japan who came down with the virus after leaving the Grand Waikikian and returning to Japan.  At that time people didn't want to stay anywhere in the Grand Waikikian.  Any staff that came in contact with the room or the vistor were quarantined at home for 14 days and were given paid leave.  For the benefit of the larger community the best thing would be to quarantine the infected person in the same room to limit further spread of the virus.  Leaving it up to the person to find accomodations somewhere else so that they could spread the virus to at least one other location and perhaps more in the performance of the relocation would not be wise.


All true. But you can't force the person to stay -- there could be a huge cost. Say you're got an OF timeshare for a week. On day 4 you are quarantined for 14 days. You're looking at 11 days in a room that retails for ~$1000/nt. And the TS didn't assume the risk that they'd eat the cost. And what about the owner that was scheduled to have that room? All kinds of issues come up.


----------



## cerralee

So unfortunately I am still confused. “Hypothetical scenario”. Hawaii resident goes to Mainland for two week visit. Travels back to Hawaii for third week in July. From what I am reading the Hawaii resident will have to quarantine at least for the remainder of July and also into August if the quarantine is extended?


----------



## slip

cerralee said:


> So unfortunately I am still confused. “Hypothetical scenario”. Hawaii resident goes to Mainland for two week visit. Travels back to Hawaii for third week in July. From what I am reading the Hawaii resident will have to quarantine at least for the remainder of July and also into August if the quarantine is extended?


 
They would have to quarantine for 2 weeks. We have had people here at my work have to do this. It was for personal travel.


----------



## rickandcindy23

I guess I need to re-trade my late August-early July weeks on Maui.  I was hoping to wait, but I don't want to be stuck with weeks that are going to subject to II's ridiculous replacement certificates.  They are the worst.  I wanted to go to Maui, but I am switching to Palm Beach.  Rick will die with that heat.


----------



## cman

TXTortoise said:


> Has anyone seen a discussion on how someone will be quarantined if they present with symptoms, let’s say 3 days into a seven day trip?  Assuming they have to checkout of their room at seven days, where do they go?  They certainly can’t fly home If they have a fever and I’m guessing checking in to another hotel is problematic. Hospitalization usually occurs over a longer term, and may not be required.


This article is not specific to Hawaii, but it speaks to your question. Seems like the International trend is for the hotel, or in some cases, the government picks up the tab for food and lodging








						Who Pays If You Get Quarantined On Vacation?
					

Should you rethink travel?




					time.com


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> All true. But you can't force the person to stay -- there could be a huge cost. Say you're got an OF timeshare for a week. On day 4 you are quarantined for 14 days. You're looking at 11 days in a room that retails for ~$1000/nt. And the TS didn't assume the risk that they'd eat the cost. And what about the owner that was scheduled to have that room? All kinds of issues come up.



Who eats the cost is an issue that I didn't address but cman did in a subsequent post.  In view of the costs of this pandemic to every government as well as most resorts and hotels $11,000 is so minor, and the costs of allowing the infected person on their own could be possibly immense.    Furthermore, I think that the owner or exchanger who was scheduled to have that room would be grateful to NOT to stay there.  As I mentioned in a previous post the resort or hotel would find alternate accomodations for the incoming guest just as they would if the room had to be taken off line due to a maintenance problem.  We have had 3 maintenance problems since we have been staying in the Lagoon Tower where we had to moved to an alternate location due to maintenance problems.(Keep in mind that we have stayed there for over 1000 nights in the last 12 years)   The resort staff found alternate accomodations for us.  The last two times the alternates were nice upgrades so we were very happy customers.


----------



## controller1

Yellowfin said:


> As of July 1st, travelers to Maine can forgo the quarantine if they have a negative Covid test. This puts even more pressure on Hawaii that just extended the measures until July 30th.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Beginning July 1, out-of-state visitors with recent negative test may forgo quarantine - Mount Desert Islander
> 
> 
> AUGUSTA — The state has unveiled a proposed alternative to the 14-day quarantine for out-of-state visitors in an attempt to salvage the summer season
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mdislander.com



Not to be flippant but I'm not sure this is much "pressure". I didn't even know Maine had a visitors' quarantine in place!


----------



## Yellowfin

controller1 said:


> Not to be flippant but I'm not sure this is much "pressure". I didn't even know Maine had a visitors' quarantine in place!


read the comments on David Ige's FB page


----------



## JIMinNC

csodjd said:


> I wonder if things will change when Federal money to the unemployed runs out at the end of July.





bbodb1 said:


> I suspect there will be a correlation..a strong correlation.....



There is a push by some in Washington to extend the Federal money to January 2021. I also believe I read that the Hawaii congressional delegation is pushing for the next bill to include extra extended help specifically for Hawaii's unemployed due to the outsized impact of tourism in that state and the likelihood tourism may be depressed there for months or years. I can't find it now, but as I recall they were asking for $1000/week instead of $600 and to extend it until the end of 2021 for Hawaii.


----------



## amy241

JIMinNC said:


> There is a push by some in Washington to extend the Federal money to January 2021. I also believe I read that the Hawaii congressional delegation is pushing for the next bill to include extra extended help specifically for Hawaii's unemployed due to the outsized impact of tourism in that state and the likelihood tourism may be depressed there for months or years. I can't find it now, but as I recall they were asking for $1000/week instead of $600 and to extend it until the end of 2021 for Hawaii.


That’s ridiculous - the governor is creating his own problems by not finding safe protocols with which to open up the state.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

JIMinNC said:


> There is a push by some in Washington to extend the Federal money to January 2021. I also believe I read that the Hawaii congressional delegation is pushing for the next bill to include extra extended help specifically for Hawaii's unemployed due to the outsized impact of tourism in that state and the likelihood tourism may be depressed there for months or years. I can't find it now, but as I recall they were asking for $1000/week instead of $600 and to extend it until the end of 2021 for Hawaii.




I know there is a push in Washington for more stimulus, but the exact type seems to up for debate.   I had not heard of the special additional add for Hawaii, i wonder how well that request will be received, particularity if many perceive they are inflicting some of the damage themselves.

I have also read a number of articles that the HI state budget is bad shape.  Of course many states have taken big hits, but i think Hawaii has been hit very hard.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> There is a push by some in Washington to extend the Federal money to January 2021. I also believe I read that the Hawaii congressional delegation is pushing for the next bill to include extra extended help specifically for Hawaii's unemployed due to the outsized impact of tourism in that state and the likelihood tourism may be depressed there for months or years. I can't find it now, but as I recall they were asking for $1000/week instead of $600 and to extend it until the end of 2021 for Hawaii.


Well, that would be an exceptionally effective way to sustain a very high unemployment rate. And a year from now, when their job no longer exist having been replaced by efficiencies, technology, moving over seas to another country, and their UI perk ends, then what?


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> Well, that would be an exceptionally effective way to sustain a very high unemployment rate. And a year from now, when their job no longer exist having been replaced by efficiencies, technology, moving over seas to another country, and their UI perk ends, then what?



How do you move hospitality jobs overseas? 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Ken555 said:


> How do you move hospitality jobs overseas?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I agree.. I don't think offshoring is the big risk for Hawaii jobs.  The bigger issue will be changes in how hospitality is delivered...  Will more people use hotel apps to check in and out, digital keys. etc.  I believe the new guidelines call for an end to housekeeping for occupied rooms.  That has to cut down on the need to housekeeping staff.  etc.


----------



## Ken555

1Kflyerguy said:


> I agree.. I don't think offshoring is the big risk for Hawaii jobs. The bigger issue will be changes in how hospitality is delivered... Will more people use hotel apps to check in and out, digital keys. etc. I believe the new guidelines call for an end to housekeeping for occupied rooms. That has to cut down on the need to housekeeping staff. etc.



I don’t see digital keys and apps significantly impacting jobs at all. They’re currently used as ways to differentiate hotel operators for primarily business travelers who want to save the time from checking in, etc. In my limited experience trying to use them they also don’t work consistently, but I’m sure that will improve. 

Limiting housekeeping would surely impact jobs, but some of those jobs (at least at the Westin’s in Maui) I was told some (most?) of their staff are brought in from the Philippines. Perhaps this has changed but if still true then this won’t have much impact. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if all of them use this as an excuse to reduce service and/or increase costs, etc. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Yellowfin

Other sectors will be affected as well even if they do not count in the tourism industry. They are actually very concerned that the local farmers cannot sell what they produce. David Ige mentioned that the schools will open and that will help the farmers a little bit. I am not sure if that is true unless he has seen data that a kid in school eats more that one at home lol.


----------



## Ken555

Yellowfin said:


> Other sectors will be affected as well even if they do not count in the tourism industry. They are actually very concerned that the local farmers cannot sell what they produce. David Ige mentioned that the schools will open and that will help the farmers a little bit. I am not sure if that is true unless he has seen data that a kid in school eats more that one at home lol.



You’re making the assumption that children have enough food at home, and that’s incorrect. 

Many schools provide meals to children that don’t receive enough food at home. I’m not sure of the numbers in Hawaii, but this could definitely be a meaningful amount. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Yellowfin

Ken555 said:


> You’re making the assumption that children have enough food at home, and that’s incorrect.
> 
> Many schools provide meals to children that don’t receive enough food at home. I’m not sure of the numbers in Hawaii, but this could definitely be a meaningful amount.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


If that is the case, even more curious they have kept the schools closed for so long.


----------



## cman

csodjd said:


> Well, that would be an exceptionally effective way to sustain a very high unemployment rate. And a year from now, when their job no longer exist having been replaced by efficiencies, technology, moving over seas to another country, and their UI perk ends, then what?


You nailed it. I ran the numbers today, and for a minimum wage worker, with the extra $600/wk, their unemployment take home pay, more than doubles what they would make if they went back to work. Minimum wage in Hawaii is $10.10/hour, weekly gross pay is $404/wk. On unemployment, they get $231/wk from the state, plus $600/wk from the cares act, for a total of $831/wk. So if the choice is $404/wk for going back to work vs. $831/wk for staying home. If I were a low wage worker, it would be an easy choice to make.

With the extra $600/wk, a worker will take home more money on unemployment, as opposed to working up to about $50K/yr. A person making $50k/yr, will make about the same on unemployment as they would if they were working.

Of course things will change on 7/31 if the $600 supplement ends. But for now, my guess is that a lot of Hawaiians are just enjoying their uncrowded island. Heck, some of them would love for this to drag out for another six months. If my salary were doubled, and I didn't have to go to work. I wouldn't have a problem with that. lol


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Ken555 said:


> I don’t see digital keys and apps significantly impacting jobs at all. They’re currently used as ways to differentiate hotel operators for primarily business travelers who want to save the time from checking in, etc. In my limited experience trying to use them they also don’t work consistently, but I’m sure that will improve.
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk




I am a frequent business traveler, and personally i hate the digital keys.  However I have seen a number of of hotel industry announcements and guidelines highlighting ways to create contact less guest experience.  They are now promoting the digital keys as way for guest to avoid the lines and front desks.  The other item being promoted is a kiosks where perform the check-in,  i have not used one of those, but i am sure those could be setup to program and dispense a physical key.     None of this is Hawaii specific, its just changes we are likely to see in hotels.


----------



## Yellowfin

cman said:


> You nailed it. I ran the numbers today, and for a minimum wage worker, with the extra $600/wk, their unemployment take home pay, more than doubles what they would make if they went back to work. Minimum wage in Hawaii is $10.10/hour, weekly gross pay is $404/wk. On unemployment, they get $231/wk from the state, plus $600/wk from the cares act, for a total of $831/wk. So if the choice is $404/wk for going back to work vs. $831/wk for staying home. If I were a low wage worker, it would be an easy choice to make.
> 
> With the extra $600/wk, a worker will take home more money on unemployment, as opposed to working up to about $50K/yr. A person making $50k/yr, will make about the same on unemployment as they would if they were working.
> 
> Of course things will change on 7/31 if the $600 supplement ends. But for now, my guess is that a lot of Hawaiians are just enjoying their uncrowded island. Heck, some of them would love for this to drag out for another six months. If my salary were doubled, and I didn't have to go to work. I wouldn't have a problem with that. lol


It is crazy they gave people an incentive to stay home. When they eventually go back to work they will be frustrated.


----------



## Luanne

Yellowfin said:


> It is crazy they gave people an incentive to stay home. When they eventually go back to work they will be frustrated.


I don't think it was meant as an incentive to stay home.  I think the intent was to support people while they couldn't work during shutdowns of their businesses.


----------



## Ken555

Luanne said:


> I don't think it was meant as an incentive to stay home. I think the intent was to support people while they couldn't work during shutdowns of their businesses.



Exactly. It’s the price to pay for flattening the curve. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Ken555

Yellowfin said:


> If that is the case, even more curious they have kept the schools closed for so long.



You’d rather they go to school and get infected? Based on the numbers, they can reopen now as long as it stays low. There are obvious trade offs here... 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## cman

Yellowfin said:


> It is crazy they gave people an incentive to stay home. When they eventually go back to work they will be frustrated.


Giving people an incentive to stay home was not the intent. Had the Cares Act not been passed, $231/wk is all a minimum wage earner would be living on. Can't feed a family on that.


----------



## controller1

Yellowfin said:


> read the comments on David Ige's FB page



OK, let me try this again. "As Maine goes the rest of the country goes" said no one ever.


----------



## csodjd

cman said:


> You nailed it. I ran the numbers today, and for a minimum wage worker, with the extra $600/wk, their unemployment take home pay, more than doubles what they would make if they went back to work. Minimum wage in Hawaii is $10.10/hour, weekly gross pay is $404/wk. On unemployment, they get $231/wk from the state, plus $600/wk from the cares act, for a total of $831/wk. So if the choice is $404/wk for going back to work vs. $831/wk for staying home. If I were a low wage worker, it would be an easy choice to make.
> 
> With the extra $600/wk, a worker will take home more money on unemployment, as opposed to working up to about $50K/yr. A person making $50k/yr, will make about the same on unemployment as they would if they were working.
> 
> Of course things will change on 7/31 if the $600 supplement ends. But for now, my guess is that a lot of Hawaiians are just enjoying their uncrowded island. Heck, some of them would love for this to drag out for another six months. If my salary were doubled, and I didn't have to go to work. I wouldn't have a problem with that. lol


It probably is worse than that. How many do you think realize that their UI money is taxable? So, IF they do go back to work down the road, come April 2021 they're going to be hit with a tax bill they had no idea was headed their way.


----------



## csodjd

cman said:


> Giving people an incentive to stay home was not the intent. Had the Cares Act not been passed, $231/wk is all a minimum wage earner would be living on. Can't feed a family on that.


Yes. But they should have capped UI benefits at about 90% of their wages. Or even 95%. Not a profit.


----------



## Yellowfin

Those that hope to go to Hawaii this fall may be disappointed. He seems to base his decisions on the prevalence of the virus so, realistically, how soon can we expect he  will  lift the restrictions for the mainland?


----------



## cman

csodjd said:


> It probably is worse than that. How many do you think realize that their UI money is taxable? So, IF they do go back to work down the road, come April 2021 they're going to be hit with a tax bill they had no idea was headed their way.


Their W-4 withholding will take care of that. They are poor, not stupid.


----------



## cman

csodjd said:


> Yes. But they should have capped UI benefits at about 90% of their wages. Or even 95%. Not a profit.


They could have. But in Hawaii's case it would not have made a difference. If they capped it a 95%, the payment would be about $400/wk. They couldn't go to work anyway, so you'd just end up with a bunch of hungry kids and angry parents. I look it as these are the people that clean my room, serve me my food, and ensure I have a good time. They don't get paid much, we know that. So, if they finally get to catch a break, good for them.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Ken555 said:


> You’re making the assumption that children have enough food at home, and that’s incorrect.
> 
> Many schools provide meals to children that don’t receive enough food at home. I’m not sure of the numbers in Hawaii, but this could definitely be a meaningful amount.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I agree with you about some kids do not get enough food at home and need the school breakfast and/or lunch programs.  Also, the schools can work out a system to buy from local farmers that is not being sold due to the virus and that would benefit them.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Ken555 said:


> I don’t see digital keys and apps significantly impacting jobs at all. They’re currently used as ways to differentiate hotel operators for primarily business travelers who want to save the time from checking in, etc. In my limited experience trying to use them they also don’t work consistently, but I’m sure that will improve.
> 
> Limiting housekeeping would surely impact jobs, but some of those jobs (at least at the Westin’s in Maui) I was told some (most?) of their staff are brought in from the Philippines. Perhaps this has changed but if still true then this won’t have much impact. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if all of them use this as an excuse to reduce service and/or increase costs, etc.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



You say brought in.  There have roots in the Philipines; just like my family has roots in Italy, Germany, Ireland, Poland etc. but they are and have been living in Hawaii and Hawaii is their home.  They need their Housekeeping Job just as much as any of the other other person needs their job.


----------



## csodjd

cman said:


> Their W-4 withholding will take care of that. They are poor, not stupid.


I know of plenty of smart people that were unaware that unemployment benefits were taxed.


----------



## controller1

N/A


----------



## geist1223

I am still hoping for September 1, 2020.


----------



## Ken555

Tamaradarann said:


> You say brought in. There have roots in the Philipines; just like my family has roots in Italy, Germany, Ireland, Poland etc. but they are and have been living in Hawaii and Hawaii is their home. They need their Housekeeping Job just as much as any of the other other person needs their job.



Sorry, that’s not what I meant. Sure there are many immigrants, but I was specifically told that there are a significant number of temporary workers who are foreign nationals that move to Hawaii for a season (or longer) for a specific job at a large employer. A quick search shows placement agencies, job availability, ways to get green cards, etc. Perhaps this has lessened in recent years...I’m admittedly not well versed in the details of this process. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## Yellowfin

geist1223 said:


> I am still hoping for September 1, 2020.


The availability is very low in Interval for August. Either people have information that we do not have or everyone is just hoping for the best.


----------



## skimble

While I agree that the CARES Act has messed up a lot of things, that's getting political.  The discussion is about whether Hawaii will reopen.


----------



## DeniseM

Boys and Girls - I have given this thread a lot of latitude, but if you can't stay out of the politics and social issues, it can be closed.


----------



## Tamaradarann

DeniseM said:


> Boys and Girls - I have given this thread a lot of latitude, but if you can't stay out of the politics and social issues, it can be closed.



OK, here is a topic related item.  I just looked at the IHME latest projections as of June 10th show that Hawaii will go from no cases a day recently to many cases a day in October and over 300 total deaths.  I am not sure that the projection was a predication that Hawaii would be removing the 14 day quaratine and therefore opening to many tourists.  We are in New York right now and while New York has been in Coronavirus hell it also shows that by October there would be little to no cases in New York.  I am not sure that these projections are correct but they certainly do make you think.


----------



## DeniseM

The shaded area appears to show the uncertainty of what will happen when tourism returns:


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> The shaded area appears to show the uncertainty of what will happen when tourism returns:
> View attachment 22047


That uncertainty no doubt reflects that there is a wide range of possibilities once tourism reopens... come one, come all at one end, to pre-flight testing, temp screening, random surveillance testing, etc. Like us, IHME has no clues from the Governor what level of defense the state will put up. Hence, a wide range. I think most would agree that if they just did nothing, there would be a lot of cases. I think most would also agree that they are not going to just do nothing. Heck, like everyone else, they're just guessing at WHEN tourism will return.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> That uncertainty no doubt reflects that there is a wide range of possibilities once tourism reopens... come one, come all at one end, to pre-flight testing, temp screening, random surveillance testing, etc. Like us, IHME has no clues from the Governor what level of defense the state will put up. Hence, a wide range. I think most would agree that if they just did nothing, there would be a lot of cases. I think most would also agree that they are not going to just do nothing. Heck, like everyone else, they're just guessing at WHEN tourism will return.



I guess they feel that they need to make a projection and since they, like us, don't know anything they are projecting based on not knowing anything.  While I have been saying that while we know that the number of cases will rise when they remove the 14 day quarantine we don't know how much the number of cases will rise, I never put it down in a graph which gives the appearance of having some scientific basis for the projection.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I guess they feel that they need to make a projection and since they, like us, don't know anything they are projecting based on not knowing anything.  While I have been saying that while we know that the number of cases will rise when they remove the 14 day quarantine we don't know how much the number of cases will rise, I never put it down in a graph which gives the appearance of having some scientific basis for the projection.


Well, it's probably scientific in the sense that the peak represents their estimate of worst-case, if there are no mitigating actions taken. And to that extent it is informative to Hawaii officials. If they are true to form, as they get more/new/different information they will modify their projections accordingly. 

What ought to be of more concern is two-fold: Hawaii had a lot of new cases reported today, and some states are exploding with new cases, including Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, and even Mississippi and Nebraska. Though NY and NJ, the two worst at the peak, are doing great, the National new-case count was above 23,000 yesterday and above 26,000 today, reflecting that a lot of states have problems. Moreover, hospitalizations are rapidly increasing in a number of states or cities. Arizona. Houston. Even Austin is experiencing its highest rates since it all started, "On Wednesday, there were a record 24 new hospitalizations. That brought the seven-day average to 13, the highest since the pandemic began," according to a local newspaper there. 

Nothing could bring the plans on opening up Hawaii to a halt faster than a big resurgence of the virus.


----------



## DavidnRobin

The Maui Hospital (MMMC) was already a hotspot for CV when the outbreak first occurred - and there are inadequate ICU beds if an large outbreak were to occur. I wouldn’t want to be the person in charge to pick economy over death/morbidity
(Please... no false equivalences or comparison as some here are so quick to jump on). The risks for catching/transmission the virus, and the death-morbidity rates are pretty well disseminated already. If the risks are reduced - the poor health associated with the CV outcomes are reduced.

The SIP/SAH (everywhere) was always about overwhelming ICUs - the AUC (area-under-curve) for deaths/morbidities and C-19 positivity does not drastically change unless herd immunity or vaccine gets developed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

DavidnRobin said:


> C-19 positivity does not drastically change unless herd immunity or vaccine gets developed.


Not sure exactly what you mean there, but it does change with such simple steps as social distancing, wearing face protection, hand washing, sanitizers, avoiding poorly ventilated indoor areas, and temperature screenings. None of these are particularly burdensome, and collectively they have a huge impact on contagion/spread. The danger to Hawaii (or any place) hospitals is not a sick person, it is a sick person spreading it to many others. In technical terms, if R0 (or Rt) is near 0, Hawaii can handle a lot of infected people. If it is 2, it will be overwhelmed quickly by exponential growth.

Here is an interesting site: https://rt.live/ It shows R values by state in almost real time. For context, if R is < 1, the number of cases will go down. If R is > 1, the number will go up. If R = 2, you have exponential growth.

Hawaii is current 0.91. However, because of its small numbers, it has a wide area of uncertainty.

p.s. They note that their model assumes contagion begins with symptoms, but that actual contagion likely is before that, and they have not taken that into consideration. So actual Rt may be higher.


----------



## slip

Of the 15 new cases report on Hawaii today, 10 were from one family with a known case in the household and two other cases were also from known cases.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> Of the 15 new cases report on Hawaii today, 10 were from one family with a known case in the household and two other cases were also from known cases.


Big family. That aside, the test then becomes what have they done for the past week or so. If they've been good about wearing masks, maybe the infected nobody, or very few. If they've been not that good, maybe they've infected 10, or even 15 others. If 10 tested positive at about the same time, that seems somewhat odd.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> Big family. That aside, the test then becomes what have they done for the past week or so. If they've been good about wearing masks, maybe the infected nobody, or very few. If they've been not that good, maybe they've infected 10, or even 15 others. If 10 tested positive at about the same time, that seems somewhat odd.




He wasn’t that specific, I just posted what the Governor said. I took it to mean that they were being monitored because of the known case but I could be wrong.


----------



## JIMinNC

csodjd said:


> Big family. That aside, the test then becomes what have they done for the past week or so. If they've been good about wearing masks, maybe the infected nobody, or very few. If they've been not that good, maybe they've infected 10, or even 15 others. If 10 tested positive at about the same time, that seems somewhat odd.



This is the canary in the coal mine that doesn't seem to be getting as much discussion as it should for some reason. A significant portion of the infections outside nursing homes and other such facilities, seems to be spread amongst large households that live together in tight quarters. That's why lower income areas of big cities and even rural areas quickly become hot spots. I know Gov Cuomo in NY mentioned in one of his press briefings that a study they did showed that about two thirds of the new cases studied during the duration of that study were people who had been staying at home. One person in the family goes out, maybe to work, catches the virus and brings it back to infect the household.


----------



## DeniseM

*21 members of reported cult that violated 14-day quarantine plan to stay in Hawaii*
They are a religious cult known for polygamy and nudism.









						21 members of reported cult that violated 14-day quarantine plan to stay in Hawaii
					

Twenty-one members of a cult called Carbon Nation who were arrested for violating the state’s mandatory 14-day quarantine told officials Friday they planned to relocate to Hawaii and wouldn’t accept flight assistance home.




					www.staradvertiser.com
				




*I thought some of our rebels without a cause might want to consider joining.


----------



## Ken555

JIMinNC said:


> This is the canary in the coal mine that doesn't seem to be getting as much discussion as it should for some reason. A significant portion of the infections outside nursing homes and other such facilities, seems to be spread amongst large households that live together in tight quarters. That's why lower income areas of big cities and even rural areas quickly become hot spots. I know Gov Cuomo in NY mentioned in one of his press briefings that a study they did showed that about two thirds of the new cases studied during the duration of that study were people who had been staying at home. One person in the family goes out, maybe to work, catches the virus and brings it back to infect the household.



Yes. I’ve been reading this since almost day one of the pandemic. I would think it’s just assumed by now that anyone who lives in the same household as someone infected is likely to catch it, too. Not sure why you think this is a surprise to many. There’s also not much that can be done outside of draconian measures which were discussed in Feb or so. China did it, I believe, by having facilities where infected members of a household could stay so they didn’t infect others and, I think, New York had the provision as well. 

You’re touching on an important point, though, in that the method of infection is obvious in at least this manner. So what do we do about it?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## JIMinNC

Ken555 said:


> Yes. I’ve been reading this since almost day one of the pandemic. I would think it’s just assumed by now that anyone who lives in the same household as someone infected is likely to catch it, too. Not sure why you think this is a surprise to many. There’s also not much that can be done outside of draconian measures which were discussed in Feb or so. China did it, I believe, by having facilities where infected members of a household could stay so they didn’t infect others and, I think, New York had the provision as well.
> 
> You’re touching on an important point, though, in that the method of infection is obvious in at least this manner. So what do we do about it?



If I could answer that question, I'd be selling my consulting services to all 50 states and making a mint! I could buy an OF condo at Kaanapali Alii and quarantine til my heart's content.

China could do it because they are a totalitarian state with a compliant population. I don't know how you do that consistently in a democracy.

I read that in India where there are residential areas with exponentially more density than even New York City, they were actually pushing people to go to work and stay, even sleep at work, to reduce the spread in these dense residential areas. Different solutions are needed everywhere.


----------



## slip

DeniseM said:


> *21 members of reported cult that violated 14-day quarantine plan to stay in Hawaii*
> They are a religious cult known for polygamy and nudism.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 21 members of reported cult that violated 14-day quarantine plan to stay in Hawaii
> 
> 
> Twenty-one members of a cult called Carbon Nation who were arrested for violating the state’s mandatory 14-day quarantine told officials Friday they planned to relocate to Hawaii and wouldn’t accept flight assistance home.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com



This was a big story today. It was also reported yesterday that The Star Advertiser was letting go of 30% of it’s work force.


----------



## Yellowfin

interesting Facebook group









						Hawai’i for Tourism 2022 ⛱‍❤️‍ | Facebook
					

Do you have any questions? Ask!  Do you have a story to tell? It's time to tell it! Do you have any advice or tips to help people to have better experience? Please share with us. Do you need advice?...




					www.facebook.com


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> If I could answer that question, I'd be selling my consulting services to all 50 states and making a mint! I could buy an OF condo at Kaanapali Alii and quarantine til my heart's content.
> 
> China could do it because they are a totalitarian state with a compliant population. I don't know how you do that consistently in a democracy.
> 
> I read that in India where there are residential areas with exponentially more density than even New York City, they were actually pushing people to go to work and stay, even sleep at work, to reduce the spread in these dense residential areas. Different solutions are needed everywhere.


I saw quite a few ER and critical care physicians staying in hotels and not going home between shifts in NY and some other places simply to keep their family safe knowing the risk they had of getting it.


----------



## lynne

I know that everyone has an opinion and many of you are critics on our governor and continuing to quarantine both returning residents and visitors for 14 days, however there are many other states that are also supporting quarantines.  Please stop beating up on the state's government for trying to keep it's population safe.  I know quite a few people who are furloughed from resorts and they stated that if they were called back to work right now, they would not go in.  They have at risk family members and consider health more important than finances.









						States are reopening, but many still require travelers to self-quarantine. Here's where
					

States are slowly beginning to open back up, but that  doesn't mean travelers are free to come and go as they please in most places amid the




					www.statesman.com


----------



## cman

lynne said:


> I know that everyone has an opinion and many of you are critics on our governor and continuing to quarantine both returning residents and visitors for 14 days, however there are many other states that are also supporting quarantines.  Please stop beating up on the state's government for trying to keep it's population safe.  I know quite a few people who are furloughed from resorts and they stated that if they were called back to work right now, they would not go in.  They have at risk family members and consider health more important than finances.


At one time I counted 29 states that had 14 day quarantine requirements for out of state travelers. Texas and Florida were among them. I've yet to see a single post criticizing the quarantine restrictions of these other states, but there are multiple threads commenting on the decisions that the state of Hawaii have made. You're from Hawaii, so you know the deal. If not, I'll break it down for you. The people, that live in other states, value "their" vacation more than they value the health and safety of Hawaiian citizens. It's just as simple as that. What's best for Hawaiians is for Hawaiians to decide. Y'all let me know what you come up with, and I'll proceed accordingly.


----------



## PigsDad

cman said:


> The people, that live in other states, value "their" vacation more than they value the health and safety of Hawaiian citizens. It's just as simple as that.


I don't have a dog in this race (no plans to visit Hawaii anytime soon), but it seems a bit pretentious of you to state that you _know _what other people _value_, don't you think? 

Kurt


----------



## cman

PigsDad said:


> I don't have a dog in this race (no plans to visit Hawaii anytime soon), but it seems a bit pretentious of you to state that you _know _what other people _value_, don't you think?
> 
> Kurt


Not trying to be pretentious. It's just an observation. Looking at the posts criticizing the actions that Hawaii has taken, almost all of them take on the, "my vacation is going to be interrupted" tone. I have yet to see a single post, that prioritizes the health and safety of Hawaiians. Not a single one. Everybody is focused on "their" vacation. Frankly, I find it kind of annoying. I'm from Texas, decisions we make are our decisions. We could care less what another state thinks, and would politely invite you out of a discussion that involved a decision that we thought were in our best interests.

The citizens of Hawaii are the ones that should decide the path forward. I'm just a tourist and I'll abide by any decision the people and government come up with. But, as someone who doesn't reside in the state, I'm not going to trash the government or the decisions that they make because "my" vacation has to be rescheduled. So, if you take a careful look at the posts criticizing the governments actions, you'll see a constant theme of descriptions of how it impacted "their" travel plans. The health and safety of the residents tends to be an afterthought, if mentioned at all.


----------



## Ken555

cman said:


> Not trying to be pretentious. It's just an observation. Looking at the posts criticizing the actions that Hawaii has taken, almost all of them take on the, "my vacation is going to be interrupted" tone. I have yet to see a single post, that prioritizes the health and safety of Hawaiians. Not a single one. Everybody is focused on "their" vacation. Frankly, I find it kind of annoying. I'm from Texas, decisions we make are our decisions. We could care less what another state thinks, and would politely invite you out of a discussion that involved a decision that we thought were in our best interests.
> 
> The citizens of Hawaii are the ones that should decide the path forward. I'm just a tourist and I'll abide by any decision the people and government come up with. But, as someone who doesn't reside in the state, I'm not going to trash the government or the decisions that they make because "my" vacation has to be rescheduled. So, if you take a careful look at the posts criticizing the governments actions, you'll see a constant theme of descriptions of how it impacted "their" travel plans. The health and safety of the residents tends to be an afterthought, if mentioned at all.



I agree. Though to be fair, some of those same posts also are concerned about the Hawaiian economy...and that to improve the economy they should allow tourists in asap...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## cman

Ken555 said:


> I agree. Though to be fair, some of those same posts also are concerned about the Hawaiian economy...and that to improve the economy they should allow tourists in asap...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Concern for the economy may not be the top priority for most Hawaiians. Health and safety appears to trump that.


----------



## Ken555

cman said:


> Concern for the economy may not be the top priority for most Hawaiians. Health and safety appears to trump that.



That's exactly correct (and what I posted in other threads). Health and safety *should* be first, in any civilized society (must I really state "in my opinion" here?).


----------



## Tamaradarann

cman said:


> Concern for the economy may not be the top priority for most Hawaiians. Health and safety appears to trump that.



I don't know if there has been a survey of Hawaiian residents to support that Health and Safety trumps the economy; there are certainly some Hawaiian Residents who need tourists for their business or jobs to be viaable.  However, certainly your statement is supported by the actions of the Governor who is elected by the Hawaiian residents.  

I think that Lieutenant Governor Green is supporting Coronavirus testing before boarding a plane and a 14 day quaratine if no certification of negative for the Coronavirus.  The 14 day quarantine must have more stingent enforcement to prevent violations.  Perhaps GPS tracking.   
Also the Coronavirus test must be pretty reliable.

I don't know if those percautions would be supported by the majoring of Hawaiian Residents as the criteria for opening up to tourists.  If a survey is done of Hawaiian Residents these questions must be included to provide information for where Hawaii goes from here.


----------



## csodjd

cman said:


> Looking at the posts criticizing the actions that Hawaii has taken, almost all of them take on the, "my vacation is going to be interrupted" tone. I have yet to see a single post, that prioritizes the health and safety of Hawaiians. Not a single one.


I disagree. I have posted that Hawaii needs to find the balance of ensuring control of the virus on the islands, and protecting the economy. My criticism has NOT been the actions they have taken, it has been the pace and lack of information being provided. I think the Governor has done a good job of protecting his constituents but a poor job at transparency and information. Here in California the Governor gives a press conference on COVID every day, and answers questions from reporters. Often he says things like, we are looking at it but we just don't know yet because....

For instance, we NOW (finally) know that Hawaii will continue to quarantine through the end of July. But they've said nothing about what comes next. Maybe it's because they don't know yet. In the UK they have a quarantine in place and have said they will reevaluate it every 3 weeks. What has Hawaii said? Nothing. We don't know if they (i) will open August 1, (ii) will not open August 1, or (iii) will be examining things and will decide in early July (or pick a time) if they will extend it or not. We should not have to GUESS. If they have not decided, that's all they need to say. If they can say what they will consider and approximately when we can expect their next decision, great. 

Do I have a vacation planned? Yes. Late Oct and into Nov. All I'd like to know is about WHEN I will know if that's likely to happen or not. I'm not asking for the yes/no now. It's too early. But it would be very comforting, if nothing more, to know that I should know one way or the other by [pick a date].


----------



## Yellowfin

Let's not judge anyone's motives. I assume that the governor has good intentions but probably so has the lt. governor, yet they have a very different point of view on this.

Hawaii seems to attract more attention that other states but it would help both residents and tourists to have clear goals. The governor keeps on saying things like "I know we cannot keep the islands closed for 12 months". What does that mean? One month, 3, 11 months? Nobody seems to know but it is clear that they will open the islands before it is completely "safe" and Covid is gone. He also said that he knows the number of cases is going to go up even before they open. As a matter of fact it is going up now without the tourists. There goes the "we want to be stay safe and we do not want any risk" argument. So what is left is his hesitance in dealing with the details. One thing that kills a business is the incertitude and many need  45 days to reopen. They also need some clarity if they need credit from the banks that is not part of the federal plan. If Hawaii wants to reopen as of August 1st, the deadline to announce is June 17th. If they do not to open they should just say so.


Maybe Hawaii attracts more attention because more people depend on it. I read that 50% of the small businesses may stay closed or may open and still go bankrupt in the next 12 months. We are talking about a lot of families that will be destroyed but the governor is acting now when we know the mortality rate is 0.4% like 3 months ago when we though it was 6-8%. The state has had a lot of time to prepare for a potential increase of patients. We also know now that the ventilators may do more harm than good so they do not need 40,000 ventilators, God forbid.


----------



## bnoble

I'm still amazed at how many people who _do not live or have business interests there_ have such strong opinions about what their government ought to be doing.


----------



## controller1

bnoble said:


> I'm still amazed at how many people who _do not live or have business interests there_ have such strong opinions about what their government ought to be doing.



However, many of them _own property in Hawaii_ and _pay property taxes_ and _support payments of wages_ through their timeshare ownership and the payment of their maintenance fees.


----------



## bnoble

controller1 said:


> However, many of them _own property in Hawaii_ and _pay property taxes_ and _support payments of wages_ through their timeshare ownership and the payment of their maintenance fees.


I know! It might actually come to four figures per year!

(Yes, that was sarcasm.)

The vast majority of this thread is a bunch of people upset that they can't (or might not be able to) go on a vacation they've already paid for because the Hawaii government is taking a more conservative position than many others. Couching it in a concern for the people and economic well-being of Hawaii is a bunch of hooey, nothing more.


----------



## Yellowfin

bnoble said:


> I know! It might actually come to four figures per year!
> 
> (Yes, that was sarcasm.)
> 
> The vast majority of this thread is a bunch of people upset that they can't (or might not be able to) go on a vacation they've already paid for because the Hawaii government is taking a more conservative position than many others. Couching it in a concern for the people and economic well-being of Hawaii is a bunch of hooey, nothing more.



And a bunch of people are upset that a bunch of people are upset. If a developer increases the fees by 25 dollars the hell would  break loose and any comment is fair game, right?
With Hawaii, it is different though and  people should not comment unless their gain/loss is above X amount of dollars, you just have to tell us the amount so that we know the rules going forward.


----------



## turkel

rickandcindy23 said:


> I guess I need to re-trade my late August-early July weeks on Maui.  I was hoping to wait, but I don't want to be stuck with weeks that are going to subject to II's ridiculous replacement certificates.  They are the worst.  I wanted to go to Maui, but I am switching to Palm Beach.  Rick will die with that heat.


I just E-plus out of a August 15-22 Maui week. So sad. But this was from a replacement week from May in Maui. I added E-Plus when I made the new reservation 2 more trades to go!


----------



## bnoble

Yellowfin said:


> If a developer increases the fees by 25 dollars the hell would break loose and any comment is fair game, right?


To be honest, those people annoy me too. Even so, there is an obvious difference between a company seeking to maximize profits at my expense, and a government seeking to protect its citizens at my expense.

If you can't see that, I can't help you, but welcome to my ignore list in the meantime.


----------



## Yellowfin

bnoble said:


> To be honest, those people annoy me too. Even so, there is an obvious difference between a company seeking to maximize profits at my expense, and a government seeking to protect its citizens at my expense.
> 
> If you can't see that, I can't help you, but welcome to my ignore list in the meantime.


It is not that Hawaii will not open because they will eventually. It is how they do it and the lack of transparency.


----------



## rickandcindy23

bnoble said:


> I know! It might actually come to four figures per year!
> 
> (Yes, that was sarcasm.)
> 
> The vast majority of this thread is a bunch of people upset that they can't (or might not be able to) go on a vacation they've already paid for because the Hawaii government is taking a more conservative position than many others. Couching it in a concern for the people and economic well-being of Hawaii is a bunch of hooey, nothing more.


My fees to Wyndham points (Bali Hai and Shearwater) and Hono Koa are in the five-figure range.  We pay $6000 per year for 3 weeks at Hono Koa alone.  But we stayed at Hono Koa this year, and we have reservations for next February.  So hoping we can go next year.  

Hawaii is going to run out of stimulus money, so I assume they will open to save jobs.  Losses of jobs means starving children.  The Hawaiians struggle already with high grocery prices.


----------



## cman

Tamaradarann said:


> I don't know if there has been a survey of Hawaiian residents to support that Health and Safety trumps the economy;



Here's one that was taken last month; 









						Civil Beat-HNN poll: Despite partisan divide, support for COVID-19 orders is broad
					

In the survey, participants were asked what was more important to them — stopping COVID-19 in Hawaii or stopping the spiral of Hawaii’s economy.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## turkel

I would imagine the population is a lot more than 1533 but what do I know.


cman said:


> Here's one that was taken last month;
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Civil Beat-HNN poll: Despite partisan divide, support for COVID-19 orders is broad
> 
> 
> In the survey, participants were asked what was more important to them — stopping COVID-19 in Hawaii or stopping the spiral of Hawaii’s economy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 22113


----------



## PigsDad

turkel said:


> I would imagine the population is a lot more than 1533 but what do I know.


Do you understand how polls work?   With a sample size of 1500, and a reasonably random sampling, that should result in a good confidence poll.

Right now, everyone who is unemployed is receiving an extra $600/week.  Many of those people are making much more on unemployment than when they were working, so the results are no surprise.  I'd like to see how that poll would change if they were told the extra $$ were ending next week.

Kurt


----------



## DeniseM

You know, I could probably condense this whole thread down to just 10 points.  Many of you just keep posting the same old thing over and over.

1) I'm mad because Hawaii is closed and I don't get to go on vacation - how dare they!
2) The whole thing is a big conspiracy - there is no Coronavirus danger.
3) I'm going to use this thread to promote all of my Coronavirus Socially Contentious beliefs + a few about the demonstrations.
4) Let's discuss a lot of random science that is unproven and most of us don't understand.
5) Let's make this an us vs. the Hawaiian people thing.
6) Let's predict dire consequences for Hawaii if they don't let me go on vacation - starving children!
7) Let's complain, because Hawaii has not made it crystal clear exactly what they are going to do, and I want to know NOW, dammit!
8) Let's get mad at the moderator because she won't let us post this junk in the other thread - we don't need no stinkin' facts!
9) Let's complain about our maintenance fees - why can't Hawaii see that it OWES me big time!
10) I can't even think of 10.



*ALSO - Thank you for staying in the one thread - I do actually appreciate that!*


----------



## Yellowfin

cman said:


> Here's one that was taken last month;
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Civil Beat-HNN poll: Despite partisan divide, support for COVID-19 orders is broad
> 
> 
> In the survey, participants were asked what was more important to them — stopping COVID-19 in Hawaii or stopping the spiral of Hawaii’s economy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 22113


This poll was actually taken almost a month ago when people thought the fatality rate was 10 times more than it is believed to be now. But, as we already know, the question actually leads to a false choice, the virus has not been and will not be stopped as we can see from the current increase of new cases.

The question should be:
"Should we keep the measures in place indefinitely and possibly (but not guaranteed) have a lower number of Covid cases (for a longer period of time) but cause great financial distress to 25% of  Hawaiians and expect a number of social services to be cut, furloughs and a significant increase in taxes?


----------



## cman

Yellowfin said:


> This poll was actually taken almost a month ago when people thought the fatality rate was 10 times more than it is believed to be now.


The poll was taken exactly 25 days ago, and people were not of the belief that the CFR was 10 times what it is now. CFR data is not a constant, it varies throughout the course of a pandemic and is influenced by several factors. This same information was widely available when the poll was taken;








						COVID-19 Data Explorer
					

Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems




					ourworldindata.org
				






Yellowfin said:


> But, as we already know, the question actually leads to a false choice, the virus has not been and will not be stopped as we can see from the current increase of new cases.


This may be true for most states, but not for Hawaii. They did stop it. Out of a population of 1.4 million, they only have 76 active cases. So for all practical purposes, their containment efforts have been effective.


Yellowfin said:


> The question should be:
> "Should we keep the measures in place indefinitely and possibly (but not guaranteed) have a lower number of Covid cases (for a longer period of time) but cause great financial distress to 25% of  Hawaiians and expect a number of social services to be cut, furloughs and a significant increase in taxes?


This is a question for Hawaiians to decide. We can opine all we want, but it's ultimately up to the citizens and government of Hawaii.


----------



## JIMinNC

DeniseM said:


> You know, I could probably condense this whole thread down to just 10 points.  Many of you just keep posting the same old thing over and over.
> 
> 1) I'm mad because Hawaii is closed and I don't get to go on vacation - how dare they!
> 2) The whole thing is a big conspiracy - there is no Coronavirus danger.
> 3) I'm going to use this thread to promote all of my Coronavirus Socially Contentious beliefs + a few about the demonstrations.
> 4) Let's discuss a lot of random science that is unproven and most of us don't understand.
> 5) Let's make this an us vs. the Hawaiian people thing.
> 6) Let's predict dire consequences for Hawaii if they don't let me go on vacation - starving children!
> 7) Let's complain, because Hawaii has not made it crystal clear exactly what they are going to do, and I want to know NOW, dammit!
> 8) Let's get mad at the moderator because she won't let us post this junk in the other thread - we don't need no stinkin' facts!
> 9) Let's complain about our maintenance fees - why can't Hawaii see that it OWES me big time!
> 10) I can't even thing of 10.



I looked back through the thread and couldn’t find any that really fit #2 on your list and maybe not any #3 either. In general I think TUGgers have done a good job staying away from the more political conspiracy theories and junk science that seem to be so prevalent in some other forums.


----------



## DeniseM

Well, I don't want to point out exactly what posts I was referring to, so I'll just say that YMMV.


----------



## Yellowfin

cman said:


> The poll was taken exactly 25 days ago, and people were not of the belief that the CFR was 10 times what it is now. CFR data is not a constant, it varies throughout the course of a pandemic and is influenced by several factors. This same information was widely available when the poll was taken;
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Data Explorer
> 
> 
> Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ourworldindata.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This may be true for most states, but not for Hawaii. They did stop it. Out of a population of 1.4 million, they only have 76 active cases. So for all practical purposes, their containment efforts have been effective.
> 
> This is a question for Hawaiians to decide. We can opine all we want, but it's ultimately up to the citizens and government of Hawaii.


It is like saying that you can avoid drowning by holding your breath indefinitely. That is not possible and this is exactly what is happening in Hawaii. They kept the islands closed even for inter-island travel, but that was not sustainable so the number of cases has not been zero and it will go up, like everywhere else. Also, new cases seemed to pop up every few days. This is not possible unless a lot of other cases were just not reported. I assume they are not testing as much as other states daily. 

About the fatality rate, we shall see. I have seen studies that it is in the 0.4-0.5% range now. Remember, that link shows the numbers based on testing those with more severe symptoms, not everyone who has been exposed. 

As we all know the decision is not up to the citizens but up to the governor.


----------



## Luanne

Yellowfin said:


> As we all know the decision is not up to the citizens but up to the governor.


Yep.  And it's not up to us either.


----------



## csodjd

bnoble said:


> I know! It might actually come to four figures per year!
> 
> (Yes, that was sarcasm.)
> 
> The vast majority of this thread is a bunch of people upset that they can't (or might not be able to) go on a vacation they've already paid for because the Hawaii government is taking a more conservative position than many others. Couching it in a concern for the people and economic well-being of Hawaii is a bunch of hooey, nothing more.


I have about $85,000 cash invested and spend another $7000 per year on ownership interests in properties in Hawaii. I spend about a month and a half there each year. I think I'm allowed to have an opinion or voice my thoughts and wishes and hopes. And I believe that investment, and that I'm an American citizen, also gives me the right to care about the economic health of Hawaii. My bar isn't very high. I'd just like to know about when we'll know.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> About the fatality rate, we shall see. I have seen studies that it is in the 0.4-0.5% range now. Remember, that link shows the numbers based on testing those with more severe symptoms, not everyone who has been exposed.


This is not a disease where a single "fatality rate" provides helpful information, because that rate varies so profoundly from one demographic to another. It is not an equal-opportunity killer. If you're 40 years old and in good health your risk of death from COVID-19 is a fraction of that compared with being 78 years old, hypertensive and Type II diabetes.

Someone earlier aptly described how the "concern" has transformed from keeping the amount of COVID low enough to ensure the hospitals could handle the volume, to keeping COVID out of Hawaii. COVID cannot be kept out of Hawaii. I don't believe the Governor is waiting for or shooting for that, though some of his actions could be interpreted otherwise. But here is a reality: if you are 78, diabetic and hypertensive, you probably shouldn't be engaging in any "COVID risk" until there is a treatment. If you are 40 and in good health, it is largely the risk of getting sick for a week or two. Stay socially distant and use good hygiene, and the risk is quite low.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> As we all know the decision is not up to the citizens but up to the governor.


That is clearly true. But Governor's are also politicians, and I hope they listen to and give consideration to the citizens they are serving.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> You know, I could probably condense this whole thread down to just 10 points.  Many of you just keep posting the same old thing over and over.
> 
> 1) I'm mad because Hawaii is closed and I don't get to go on vacation - how dare they!
> 2) The whole thing is a big conspiracy - there is no Coronavirus danger.
> 3) I'm going to use this thread to promote all of my Coronavirus Socially Contentious beliefs + a few about the demonstrations.
> 4) Let's discuss a lot of random science that is unproven and most of us don't understand.
> 5) Let's make this an us vs. the Hawaiian people thing.
> 6) Let's predict dire consequences for Hawaii if they don't let me go on vacation - starving children!
> 7) Let's complain, because Hawaii has not made it crystal clear exactly what they are going to do, and I want to know NOW, dammit!
> 8) Let's get mad at the moderator because she won't let us post this junk in the other thread - we don't need no stinkin' facts!
> 9) Let's complain about our maintenance fees - why can't Hawaii see that it OWES me big time!
> 10) I can't even thing of 10.


It's amusing to me that this is a thread TITLED, "Will Hawaii Open by [AUGUST]? [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]" and yet you appear to be surprised and unhappy or dismayed that there are a lot of posts about Hawaii and Coronavirus and whether Hawaii will open by August.


----------



## lynne

csodjd said:


> This is not a disease where a single "fatality rate" provides helpful information, because that rate varies so profoundly from one demographic to another. It is not an equal-opportunity killer. If you're 40 years old and in good health your risk of death from COVID-19 is a fraction of that compared with being 78 years old, hypertensive and Type II diabetes.
> 
> Someone early aptly described how the "concern" has transformed from keeping the amount of COVID low enough to ensure the hospitals could handle the volume, to keeping COVID out of Hawaii. COVID cannot be kept out of Hawaii. I don't believe the Governor is waiting for or shooting for that, though some of his actions could be interpreted otherwise. But here is a reality: if you are 78, diabetic and hypertensive, you probably shouldn't be engaging in any "COVID risk" until there is a treatment. If you are 40 and in good health, it is largely the risk of getting sick for a week or two. Stay socially distant and use good hygiene, and the risk is quite low.



These blanket statements are simply not supported.  Healthy 40 somethings with no underlying conditions are getting severe cases - there are many examples if you take the time to find them:









						Coronavirus News: Healthy NJ doctor, marathon runner shares his surprise battle with COVID-19
					

Weeks before coming down with COVID-19, Dr. Josh Fiske had been fine and healthy, vacationing with family and running.




					abc7ny.com


----------



## csodjd

lynne said:


> These blanket statements are simply not supported.  Healthy 40 somethings with no underlying conditions are getting severe cases - there are many examples if you take the time to find them:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus News: Healthy NJ doctor, marathon runner shares his surprise battle with COVID-19
> 
> 
> Weeks before coming down with COVID-19, Dr. Josh Fiske had been fine and healthy, vacationing with family and running.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abc7ny.com


I said the risk is "quite low." You argue apparently just because you like to argue. There is also risk of being in a fatal car crash on the way to your flight. Also a low risk. Each person can make their own decision on whether it is a risk they are willing to accept or not. But clearly the risk is not the same between the 78 yo diabetic hypertensive vs the 40 yo in good health, so why do you feel the need to argue as if that's not the case?





__





						| Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
					






					data.cdc.gov
				




Without even filtering for comorbidities, CDC reports 1649 deaths in the 40 age group, vs almost 25,5230 in the 78 age group. The fact is, the blanket statement IS supported.


----------



## JIMinNC

lynne said:


> These blanket statements are simply not supported.  Healthy 40 somethings with no underlying conditions are getting severe cases - there are many examples if you take the time to find them:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus News: Healthy NJ doctor, marathon runner shares his surprise battle with COVID-19
> 
> 
> Weeks before coming down with COVID-19, Dr. Josh Fiske had been fine and healthy, vacationing with family and running.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abc7ny.com



The news media does like to focus on the very small minority of cases where younger healthy people come down with very severe cases. Virtually every disease has exceptions to the rule. Dr Fauci even mentioned way back in April that even a well known, relatively common disease like the flu sometimes results in serious complications or even death in people that you wouldn’t expect to see that outcome. That seems to be happening more often with COVID, but as @csodjd said, it is still rare. The media seems to cover those exceptions because they are rare, probably for the same reason small plane crashes get more coverage than car crashes.


----------



## DeniseM

> you appear to be surprised and unhappy or dismayed



Nope - Amused  I actually appreciate the fact that  you guys are all posting in this thread, and not all over the place - thank you!


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> The news media does like to focus on the very small minority of cases where younger healthy people come down with very severe cases. Virtually every disease has exceptions to the rule. Dr Fauci even mentioned way back in April that even a well known, relatively common disease like the flu sometimes results in serious complications or even death in people that you wouldn’t expect to see that outcome. That seems to be happening more often with COVID, but as @csodjd said, it is still rare. The media seems to cover those exceptions because they are rare, probably for the same reason small plane crashes get more coverage than car crashes.


I've tried to take a pragmatic view of COVID risk. It's generally how I am. I know I'll die from something, so I cannot insulate myself entirely from risk of death. Flu. Car. MI. CA. Who knows. COVID is just a new risk. My goal of living is to live, not to not die. In other words, do those things I enjoy doing. So, with that context, I (mentally) exclude from the data all those that are not "like" me. I'm not in a care facility. I don't work in a meat factory. I don't live in the inner city. I'm not caring for COVID patients (I don't see patients anymore, I now exclusively practice healthcare law). So I say to myself, what is the risk of death or serious disease from COVID in a 62 yo white upper middle class guy living in the suburbs that works at home that had three stents but is otherwise healthy, with no history of HTN, DM, or really anything, that wears a mask outside and washes his hands? All in all, it's pretty small. Not 0. Dying in a car accident is also not 0. But its small enough that I won't let that risk prevent me from living. When COVID was real new, the risk was unknown. That warranted more caution. It's reasonably well known now, and for me, its small. I've not yet even learned that anyone I KNOW tested positive. So, I just refuse to spin out of control with fear. What CAN happen (COVID or no COVID) is really not relevant, because that would prevent me from ever leaving my house, or driving a car, much less ever get in an airplane. What is relevant to me is whether the risk is acceptable. I've flown, and possibly driven, a million miles because I was okay with the risk. 

All that is to say, we should each make our own decision on the risk we will take, but it starts with a pragmatic, not fear-based, understanding.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> Nope - Amused  I actually appreciate the fact that  you guys are all posting in this thread, and not all over the place - thank you!


I learn from others. I learn more from those I don't agree with, at least if/when they make a good argument for their viewpoint. I may not agree, but I learn to understand.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

csodjd said:


> I learn from others. I learn more from those I don't agree with, at least if/when they make a good argument for their viewpoint. I may not agree, but I learn to understand.


Apart from the rules of sandbox, the most useful precept I think I have tried to assimilate in my life is Steven Covey's "Seek first to understand".  

When you feel like exploding or screaming, or you feel the other person is an idiot or a dolt, or you wonder what planet they came from, it's so much more effective to take a deep breath and start to figure out why that person feels the way they do.  

Because the odds are that the person is not an idiot, or out of touch with reality, but rather views things from a; different perspective.  And if you learn what that perspective is - when you grok it to the level where you can say "that could be me" - then you expand your understanding and awareness.  That doesn't mean that you actually agree - it means that you understand.  

And, most importantly, it means that you see the people you might disagree with as people, not caricatures.  As people whom you can even relate to, even though you might be utter opponents.


----------



## JIMinNC

csodjd said:


> I've tried to take a pragmatic view of COVID risk. It's generally how I am. I know I'll die from something, so I cannot insulate myself entirely from risk of death. Flu. Car. MI. CA. Who knows. COVID is just a new risk. My goal of living is to live, not to not die. In other words, do those things I enjoy doing. So, with that context, I (mentally) exclude from the data all those that are not "like" me. I'm not in a care facility. I don't work in a meat factory. I don't live in the inner city. I'm not caring for COVID patients (I don't see patients anymore, I now exclusively practice healthcare law). So I say to myself, what is the risk of death or serious disease from COVID in a 62 yo white upper middle class guy living in the suburbs that works at home that had three stents but is otherwise healthy, with no history of HTN, DM, or really anything, that wears a mask outside and washes his hands? All in all, it's pretty small. Not 0. Dying in a car accident is also not 0. But its small enough that I won't let that risk prevent me from living. When COVID was real new, the risk was unknown. That warranted more caution. It's reasonably well known now, and for me, its small. I've not yet even learned that anyone I KNOW tested positive. So, I just refuse to spin out of control with fear. What CAN happen (COVID or no COVID) is really not relevant, because that would prevent me from ever leaving my house, or driving a car, much less ever get in an airplane. What is relevant to me is whether the risk is acceptable. I've flown, and possibly driven, a million miles because I was okay with the risk.
> 
> All that is to say, we should each make our own decision on the risk we will take, but it starts with a pragmatic, not fear-based, understanding.



I have evolved over the last three months to feel the same way you do. I’m about the same age, 63, and am also an upper middle class suburban male who works from home, and who wears a mask whenever I’m in a retail store or any other interior area other than my home or vacation condo. My only other risk factor that I know of is I do have a history of high blood pressure, but it is well controlled in the normal range with medication. Since it’s controlled I’m not sure if it still qualifies as a risk factor or not. My wife also works from home now that her business travel is paused, so neither of us is forced to interact outside our home unless we choose to or have external purchase needs.

It is reassuring to me to read that an MD like yourself has come to look at things in a similar way. I’m sort of a numbers geek, and I came to my conclusion by looking at the numbers and looking at the odds/probabilities rather than any medical knowledge. I figure if I act responsibly and don’t do dumb things, the risk of serious illness or death is not that high. As you said, it is greater than zero, and is an additional risk on top of all the other risks we face in life, but taking that hopefully low risk seems preferable to locking myself up at home until a proven vaccine or treatment is available. I will wear a mask when I shop and will still use curbside pickup and Amazon orders when it makes sense, but I no longer hesitate to go anywhere that is open. I just take precautions and wash my hands/use sanitizer.


----------



## cman

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> Apart from the rules of sandbox, the most useful precept I think I have tried to assimilate in my life is Steven Covey's "Seek first to understand".
> 
> When you feel like exploding or screaming, or you feel the other person is an idiot or a dolt, or you wonder what planet they came from, it's so much more effective to take a deep breath and start to figure out why that person feels the way they do.
> 
> Because the odds are that the person is not an idiot, or out of touch with reality, but rather views things from a; different perspective.  And if you learn what that perspective is - when you grok it to the level where you can say "that could be me" - then you expand your understanding and awareness.  That doesn't mean that you actually agree - it means that you understand.
> 
> And, most importantly, it means that you see the people you might disagree with as people, not caricatures.  As people whom you can even relate to, even though you might be utter opponents.


That's the most insightful thing I've seen all day. You gave me something that I can take away, and I appreciate it. You sir, have won the internet for the day.


----------



## amycurl

So what I am hearing you both saying is if white, upper-middle class men aren’t dying, but could be asymptomatically infecting lots of non-white, poorer people, who are much more likely to die, then why should the white, middle-class people care? 

That is honestly how I am hearing you both. The issue with this virus is that individual choices affect waaaay more people than that individual. And it saddens me that so few seem to understand that, and are willing to act and make policy choices accordingly.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

T_R_Oglodyte said:


> And, most importantly, it means that you see the people you might disagree with as people, not caricatures. As people whom you can even relate to, even though you might be utter opponents.


Every weekend, and sometimes 1-2 times during the week, I play golf with a group of guys, several of whom I have a VERY VERY different view of our President. But, I'm playing golf with them, not marrying them. They surely think my views are as absurd as I do theirs. But if we win $15 as partners, we're okay with that.


----------



## CPNY

Hope so


----------



## csodjd

amycurl said:


> So what I am hearing you both saying is if white, upper-middle class men aren’t dying, but could be asymptotically infecting lots of non-white, poorer people, who are much more likely to die, then why should the white, middle-class people care?
> 
> That is honestly how I am hearing you both. The issue with this virus is that individual choices affect waaaay more people than that individual. And it saddens me that so few seem to understand that, and are willing to act and make policy choices accordingly.
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Well, in addition to being rather rude and disrespectful in your comment by ASSUMING I/we don't care if we infect others and trying to put words into our mouth as if we said that, I think you (conveniently?) missed the part where we both said we wear masks when we go out (that's not for MY benefit, it is so I don't infect someone else), and that we generally don't have a lot of risk of becoming infected in the first place (work at home, etc.). If my risk of becoming infected is small, my risk of infecting someone else is substantially smaller. And if I wear a mask, it is almost zero. If I stay 6 ft away, and wear a mask, and have low risk of having become infected, it is zero. So, you can hear what you want. But that's not necessarily what was said.


----------



## JIMinNC

amycurl said:


> So what I am hearing you both saying is if white, upper-middle class men aren’t dying, but could be asymptomatically infecting lots of non-white, poorer people, who are much more likely to die, then why should the white, middle-class people care?
> 
> That is honestly how I am hearing you both. The issue with this virus is that individual choices affect waaaay more people than that individual. And it saddens me that so few seem to understand that, and are willing to act and make policy choices accordingly.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



Couldn’t be further from the truth. As @csodjd said, we both said we were wearing masks when we go out. We both said we are washing our hands and using sanitizer. Speaking for myself, we don’t go out doing dumb things like going to big crowds that aren’t social distancing. Sounds like we are both doing the things CDC and WHO recommend to limit the spread. No, we aren’t afraid to go out when we need to because it sounds like we have both analyzed the risk to ourselves and others, have listened to the science and the statistics, and have both independently concluded that if we wear masks and practice good sanitation hygiene we are not putting others or ourselves at significant risk.

Speaking for myself, if I were 75 with more significant health issues, I would be even more cautious and would take even more precautions, because that’s what the public health recommendations say.  If I lived in an urban setting with higher density and was forced to use public transit to go to the store, I would also behave differently.

There are indeed many people out there who either don’t believe this is real or who don’t care their behavior could impact others, because they don’t seem to be trying to social distance and don’t wear masks. I see that behavior more from tourists in Hilton Head when we go to our condo there than I do when going out in Charlotte where we live, but those folks are around everywhere we go. We try to give them a wide berth. My wife and I went to Michael’s craft store today in Charlotte to take a canvas to be framed for our HHI condo and were very pleased to see that all employees and every customer we saw there were masked.

You are correct that some people seem to not be concerned about how their actions impact others. I can assure you we are not one of those and have been wearing masks and keeping our distance from others since March. We just aren’t living in fear. We are trying to do what we need to do, but do it responsibly.

In the final analysis, just staying home was never going to be a long term solution. It bought us time, but eventually, whether now or a few months from now, we all have to learn to model the behaviors needed to function while protecting ourselves and others. That is the only sustainable solution that will allow us to live our life while we wait for a vaccine or the virus to run its course.

And eventually, whenever Hawaii opens up to tourists, I’m convinced we will have to make adjustments there too - either testing requirements to go in the first place or safety protocols we should follow when there. As long as they aren’t draconian, we’re all in. Just let us come and we’ll do what we need to do to protect ourselves and the Hawaiian people


----------



## cman

Waiting for this thread to get nuked. 10...9...8...7...


----------



## Yellowfin

why exactly would this be closed?


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

amycurl said:


> So what I am hearing you both saying is if white, upper-middle class men aren’t dying, but could be asymptomatically infecting lots of non-white, poorer people, who are much more likely to die, then why should the white, middle-class people care?
> 
> That is honestly how I am hearing you both. The issue with this virus is that individual choices affect waaaay more people than that individual. And it saddens me that so few seem to understand that, and are willing to act and make policy choices accordingly.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I think I hear what you are saying and I think I understand what you are saying. I have heard many people expressing similar thoughts.  In reflection of my post upthread, I also think that you projecting into other people's statements rather than seeking to understand what other people are saying.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> In the final analysis, just staying home was never going to be a long term solution. It bought us time, but eventually, whether now or a few months from now, we all have to learn to model the behaviors needed to function while protecting ourselves and others. That is the only sustainable solution that will allow us to live our life while we wait for a vaccine or the virus to run its course.


I think this really is the reality. It's time to figure out how to live WITH COVID, because that's they way it's going to be for a while.

I strongly supported the strong response out of the box (albeit coming a few weeks later than I'd have preferred) because we knew nothing about our enemy. But that was months ago. We know more now. We CAN effectively prevent most infection and most community spread by pretty basic steps. Gotta come out from under the rock. I'm fortunate and there is essentially 100% compliance in my community from what I've seen. Not a single person in a market, Costco, store, gas station, etc., not wearing a mask. Every line is spaced out. Etc. And we learn more almost daily. Here is a fascinating small study, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesc...19-using-low-doses-of-radiation/#3d8387b7dc69 that if it bears out in further testing could truly be a game changer.


----------



## chellej

csodjd said:


> I think this really is the reality. It's time to figure out how to live WITH COVID, because that's they way it's going to be for a while.
> 
> I strongly supported the strong response out of the box (albeit coming a few weeks later than I'd have preferred) because we knew nothing about our enemy. But that was months ago. We know more now. We CAN effectively prevent most infection and most community spread by pretty basic steps. Gotta come out from under the rock. I'm fortunate and there is essentially 100% compliance in my community from what I've seen. Not a single person in a market, Costco, store, gas station, etc., not wearing a mask. Every line is spaced out. Etc. And we learn more almost daily. Here is a fascinating small study, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesc...19-using-low-doses-of-radiation/#3d8387b7dc69 that if it bears out in further testing could truly be a game changer.




I do not think the characterization of "low-dose" is an appropriate description.....maybe compared to cancer therapy but not typical dose to the general public or even occupational levels.  They state a 1.5 Gy dose while that sounds low but just for comparison annual occupational dose limit would be .05 Gy( actually Sv would be the appropriate unit but since we are talking xray they are equivalent).   One view of a spine using film would be .004 Gy..digital would be much lower.
In a life or death situation it may be justified  but the characterization of "low dose" is bothersome to me


----------



## csodjd

chellej said:


> I do not think the characterization of "low-dose" is an appropriate description.....maybe compared to cancer therapy but not typical dose to the general public or even occupational levels.  They state a 1.5 Gy dose while that sounds low but just for comparison annual occupational dose limit would be .05 Gy( actually Sv would be the appropriate unit but since we are talking xray they are equivalent).   One view of a spine using film would be .004 Gy..digital would be much lower.
> In a life or death situation it may be justified  but the characterization of "low dose" is bothersome to me


If it saves you from a respirator and at least a 50% chance of dying, I don't really care all that much about the dose. Fire away.


----------



## chellej

csodjd said:


> If it saves you from a respirator and at least a 50% chance of dying, I don't really care all that much about the dose. Fire away.



csodjd

I agree everyone has to determine their own level of acceptable risk....I just feel they should not describe this as low dose because it is not.  I have worked as a Health Physicist for over 40 years and the public paranoia of anything related to radiation is high...I spend a lot of time explaining to people that dental xrays are fine ( thank you Dr OZ).  It may be the best answer for some....but I do think the medical community has a skewed perspective sometimes on risk vs benefit and the overall health of the patient needs to be considered. And don't get me wrong...I believe that generally speaking that medical use of radiation the benefit outweighs the risks


----------



## csodjd

chellej said:


> csodjd
> 
> I agree everyone has to determine their own level of acceptable risk....I just feel they should not describe this as low dose because it is not.  I have worked as a Health Physicist for over 40 years and the public paranoia of anything related to radiation is high...I spend a lot of time explaining to people that dental xrays are fine ( thank you Dr OZ).  It may be the best answer for some....but I do think the medical community has a skewed perspective sometimes on risk vs benefit and the overall health of the patient needs to be considered. And don't get me wrong...I believe that generally speaking that medical use of radiation the benefit outweighs the risks


And, of course, given the danger of radiation is a cumulative one, use on an 80 yo presents less long-term risk or concern than use on a 40 year old. The bigger point, however, is the possible existence of an effective treatment for preventing the life-threatening stages of COVID-19.


----------



## amycurl

I saw very little in those few posts about other people; the words I read were about individual choices and an individual assessment of individual risk. And I provided feedback about how those statements impacted me, regardless of intent. Now, in both responses to my comment, there was more discussion of the impact of those individual choices on other people, so I appreciate that you both elaborated further.

I am saddened with the "we will need to learn to live with it" response beacause so many, many people (how many tens or hundreds of thousands more?) won't be living with it, and those that won't be living with it are primarly poor and BIPOC. And you're right, we do know so much more about the virus and how to counteract its spread than we did three months ago. In the words of Maya Angelo, when you know better, you should do better. And, yet, so many individuals and policy makers, both of whom should now know better, *aren't* doing better.  I am glad to hear that both of you are taking those precautions on behalf of both yourself *and* other people, and that you are seeing most of the people in Southern CA doing better, a place that has also implemented policy guidelines to enforce some of that behavior. My state has not--no mandatory mask wearing--and behavioral compliance is not nearly as high. Since this thread is about the decision of policy makers in Hawaii to try and limit the overall death rate while trying to figure out how they are going to "do better," I thought it was a pertinent point.


----------



## csodjd

amycurl said:


> I am saddened with the "we will need to learn to live with it" response beacause so many, many people (how many tens or hundreds of thousands more?) won't be living with it, and those that won't be living with it are primarly poor and BIPOC.


Yes, that is certainly unfortunate. Nonetheless, there's no clear timeline for having either a treatment or vaccine, only hope. Thus, we WILL have to learn to live with it, and that means some will catch it and have a bad outcome. Fortunately, our knowledge of this illness allows for much better targeting of virus avoidance for the most at risk among us. As an example of progress, I have a client that just had an employee report that she wasn't feeling well, got tested, and was positive. She worked in close quarters with a number of others in the office. All have been tested and all are negative, but are in a 14 day quarantine out of caution anyway. They at all times wore face protection and practiced regular hand washing and sanitizing (as you'd hope for in a doctors office), and it appears that was effective in preventing the spread. 

But, yes, many individuals choose to disregard, choose to buy into conspiracy theories, etc., and others simply choose to try and survive financially and hope for the best. Our remedy with irresponsible politicians, of course, is easy. Vote them out.


----------



## T_R_Oglodyte

An excerpt from an email message I sent recently to a close friend on the topic ....


> Ultimately, control is not achieved until herd immunity is attained. Herd immunity is achieved via some combination of vaccination and acquired immunity. The only issue is how we reach that point.
> 
> Sheltering-in-place is realistic only for the elites of this world (and that includes us). In much of the world, turning off the economy for six months means people starve to death or die of other causes, in numbers greater than what will occur if the virus simply runs rampant.
> 
> They are probably not going to be saved by vaccinations, because those are not likely to be available soon enough. Given the current timing for the virus, the more likely outcome is that those countries might provide the populations that will serve as guinea pigs during testing of the vaccines. But for the most part, those countries will attain herd immunity via attrition and natural selection – those who attain immunity via surviving the infection, aided and abetted by any genetic dispositions favoring survival.
> 
> The upshot I see is that over the next four to six months the Third World is going to get ravaged. Deaths will pile up, the health care systems will be rendered useless, and bodies will be rotting in the streets. They will not have flattened the curve. But those countries will emerge on the other of the other side of the pandemic sooner than other parts of the world.


----------



## Yellowfin

Referring to opening the Trans-Pacific travel (no quarantine for those with negative tests), Ige said that August is more realistic but if they can get it done in July they will do it. 




__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=285831682826254


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Yellowfin said:


> Referring to opening the Trans-Pacific travel (no quarantine for those with negative tests), Ige said that August is more realistic but if they can get it done in July they will do it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=285831682826254



Thanks for sharing the link to the press conference.  The targeted date of August is promising.  That makes me feel a bit more confident that our fall trip may actually happen,  

I think most of the other information discussed had been previously discussed in one forum or another.  I am curious how the travel bubble concept will be implemented.  Will travel be restricted to people within these bubbles?  Or will all travel be allowed with a test prior entry, but people within the bubble avoid the testing requirements.  

Obviously only allowing travel within the established bubbles is probably the safest from a health perspective,.  However sticking to just the bubbles may limit the tourists so much that that they limit the economic gains from opening back up.


----------



## Yellowfin

1Kflyerguy said:


> Thanks for sharing the link to the press conference.  The targeted date of August is promising.  That makes me feel a bit more confident that our fall trip may actually happen,
> 
> I think most of the other information discussed had been previously discussed in one forum or another.  I am curious how the travel bubble concept will be implemented.  Will travel be restricted to people within these bubbles?  Or will all travel be allowed with a test prior entry, but people within the bubble avoid the testing requirements.
> 
> Obviously only allowing travel within the established bubbles is probably the safest from a health perspective,.  However sticking to just the bubbles may limit the tourists so much that that they limit the economic gains from opening back up.


to my surprise,  there was no follow up question about that statement and it was not reported in the media (as far as I could tell)


----------



## BagsArePacked

DeniseM said:


> You know, I could probably condense this whole thread down to just 10 points. Many of you just keep posting the same old thing over and over.
> 
> 1) I'm mad because Hawaii is closed and I don't get to go on vacation - how dare they!
> 2) The whole thing is a big conspiracy - there is no Coronavirus danger.
> 3) I'm going to use this thread to promote all of my Coronavirus Socially Contentious beliefs + a few about the demonstrations.
> 4) Let's discuss a lot of random science that is unproven and most of us don't understand.
> 5) Let's make this an us vs. the Hawaiian people thing.
> 6) Let's predict dire consequences for Hawaii if they don't let me go on vacation - starving children!
> 7) Let's complain, because Hawaii has not made it crystal clear exactly what they are going to do, and I want to know NOW, dammit!
> 8) Let's get mad at the moderator because she won't let us post this junk in the other thread - we don't need no stinkin' facts!
> 9) Let's complain about our maintenance fees - why can't Hawaii see that it OWES me big time!
> 10) I can't even think of 10.
> 
> 
> 
> *ALSO - Thank you for staying in the one thread - I do actually appreciate that!*




Well that about sums it up and if you missed any of it, it's because she cleaned it up. 


ROFLMAO! Bravo Denise. Aloha. ;-)






Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk


----------



## JoshuaTree

csodjd said:


> Hopefully that time will be used to develop and begin implementing a thorough plan for opening up Aug 1. Perhaps providing an update by the end of June.


Reserved for November.  I’m hopeful...my wife is not!


----------



## csodjd

JoshuaTree said:


> Reserved for November.  I’m hopeful...my wife is not!


I'm reserved late Oct - Nov 9 for 9 days in Waikiki and 7 in Maui. Cautiously optimistic. That's a lot of time for them to figure out how to bring American's in safely.


----------



## Yellowfin

BagsArePacked said:


> ROFLMAO! Bravo Denise. Aloha. ;-)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk


Denise can do better than that


----------



## toddvb20

Yellowfin said:


> to my surprise,  there was no follow up question about that statement and it was not reported in the media (as far as I could tell)


I did not listen to the whole interview.  When they said August did they mean August 1?

Thanks!


----------



## wannagotoo

I so appreciate this discussion. Thank you for the information, the facts and opinions that were presented, the absence of impertinent emotional statements or angry/rude responses that are usually presented when facts are not available.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

toddvb20 said:


> I did not listen to the whole interview.  When they said August did they mean August 1?
> 
> Thanks!


They  didn't specify a particular day, and would probably claim success if its August 30th....


----------



## Tamaradarann

toddvb20 said:


> I did not listen to the whole interview.  When they said August did they mean August 1?
> 
> Thanks!



Well I just looked at the HGVC website for reservations for the Hilton Hawaiian Village, which is the largest resort complex in Hawaii, and they have now moved back the first day that you can book to August 1.  So perhaps they either know something we don't know about the day that the 14 day quarantine will be lifted or they are guessing and hoping like we are that August, means August 1.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I'm reserved late Oct - Nov 9 for 9 days in Waikiki and 7 in Maui. Cautiously optimistic. That's a lot of time for them to figure out how to bring American's in safely.



We are also booked at the Hilton Hawaiian Village during that period.  We usually stay in the Lagoon Tower but have decided to book the Grand Islander.  As you know the elevator situation in the Lagoon Tower is usually horrendous without the coronavirus.  Also, we usually stay for a long stay and want to have a washer and dryer in the room so that we don't need to mix with others in the Laundry Room.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> We are also booked at the Hilton Hawaiian Village during that period.  We usually stay in the Lagoon Tower but have decided to book the Grand Islander.  As you know the elevator situation in the Lagoon Tower is usually horrendous without the coronavirus.  Also, we usually stay for a long stay and want to have a washer and dryer in the room so that we don't need to mix with others in the Laundry Room.


We’re actually splitting it... we’ve not stayed in the GI before so we’re staying there for a few days before going over to our OF room in Lagoon Tower, elevators notwithstanding.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> We’re actually splitting it... we’ve not stayed in the GI before so we’re staying there for a few days before going over to our OF room in Lagoon Tower, elevators notwithstanding.



We have stayed at all the resorts in Oahu before, but the Lagoon Tower Studios give us the best long stay for our points so that is where we usually stay.  The coronavirus has made us rethink our accomodations.  Also, we are not interested in a very long stay any longer in Waikiki since we have the condo we are just interested in a place to stay for a few weeks while we get some things done in the condo and get somethings for the condo to make living there comfortable for us.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> We have stayed at all the resorts in Oahu before, but the Lagoon Tower Studios give us the best long stay for our points so that is where we usually stay.  The coronavirus has made us rethink our accomodations.  Also, we are not interested in a very long stay any longer in Waikiki since we have the condo we are just interested in a place to stay for a few weeks while we get some things done in the condo and get somethings for the condo to make living there comfortable for us.


With three dogs (one 11-wk old Golden Retriever puppy), a cat, and a teenager... long stays aren't in the cards for us.


----------



## yeereid

We are scheduled to be in Kauai Nov 5-12 and are crossing our fingers that the trip is a go without having to quaratine. I've been in touch with Shearwater to possibly change our check in to next Spring since we are owners and there are plenty of options still available in good penthouse units, but as of now, we are hopeful to just keep our plans for Nov. Haven't bought airfare yet, but will likely do FC for both comfort and less passengers in that cabin. We are not afraid to travel though; headed to Vegas this weekend and we've heard that it is pretty quiet.


----------



## csodjd

yeereid said:


> We are scheduled to be in Kauai Nov 5-12 and are crossing our fingers that the trip is a go without having to quaratine. I've been in touch with Shearwater to possibly change our check in to next Spring since we are owners and there are plenty of options still available in good penthouse units, but as of now, we are hopeful to just keep our plans for Nov. Haven't bought airfare yet, but will likely do FC for both comfort and less passengers in that cabin. We are not afraid to travel though; headed to Vegas this weekend and we've heard that it is pretty quiet.


Careful in Vegas. I was just reading that their cases have started spiking to record levels up exactly two weeks after opening the casinos and they are pausing moving to their Phase III as a result. 









						Nevada, Clark County sees largest daily spike in COVID-19 cases since pandemic began
					

Health officials attribute a spike in COVID-19 cases to Nevada going into Phase 2 of its reopening plan two and a half weeks ago and pandemic precautions taking a back seat.




					www.ktnv.com


----------



## Tamaradarann

yeereid said:


> We are scheduled to be in Kauai Nov 5-12 and are crossing our fingers that the trip is a go without having to quaratine. I've been in touch with Shearwater to possibly change our check in to next Spring since we are owners and there are plenty of options still available in good penthouse units, but as of now, we are hopeful to just keep our plans for Nov. Haven't bought airfare yet, but will likely do FC for both comfort and less passengers in that cabin. We are not afraid to travel though; headed to Vegas this weekend and we've heard that it is pretty quiet.



We don't do, nor can we afford FC, it is over $2000/ticket from JFK.  However over the last few years we have been springing for the extra comfort seats for our 11 hour flight from JFK to HNL on Hawaiian Airlines.  We have our direct flight booked for November 8th and hopefully Hawaiian Airlines doesn't start to eliminate flights from JFK.  

Is Las Vegas, Las Vegas now?  Last I heard the Casios were closed and while we don't do very much gambling we do like to walk thru them and do like to do lots of shows.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Careful in Vegas. I was just reading that their cases have started spiking to record levels up exactly two weeks after opening the casinos and they are pausing moving to their Phase III as a result.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nevada, Clark County sees largest daily spike in COVID-19 cases since pandemic began
> 
> 
> Health officials attribute a spike in COVID-19 cases to Nevada going into Phase 2 of its reopening plan two and a half weeks ago and pandemic precautions taking a back seat.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ktnv.com



Well I guess you answered my question that I asked about Las Vegas.  In view of the community spread that we know occurs with this virus I don't know how one can be safe there if it is anything like what I have experienced when in Las Vegas.  I don't know how many people have been coming there but all of the activities in Las Vegas seem to be asking for the spread of infection.  I don't know how you social distance.  I don't know how you keep from picking up infections from touching doors, video games, chips, cards, railings etc.  The little hand sanitizers would be used up in 10 mintues.  Since hand washing is superior to hand sanitizer to be really safe you would need to carry a bathroom around with you while you were there!


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Well I guess you answered my question that I asked about Las Vegas.  In view of the community spread that we know occurs with this virus I don't know how one can be safe there if it is anything like what I have experienced when in Las Vegas.  I don't know how many people have been coming there but all of the activities in Las Vegas seem to be asking for the spread of infection.  I don't know how you social distance.  I don't know how you keep from picking up infections from touching doors, video games, chips, cards, railings etc.  The little hand sanitizers would be used up in 10 mintues.  Since hand washing is superior to hand sanitizer to be really safe you would need to carry a bathroom around with you while you were there!


Mai Tai's on the beach in Maui seem quite a bit safer.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

csodjd said:


> Careful in Vegas. I was just reading that their cases have started spiking to record levels up exactly two weeks after opening the casinos and they are pausing moving to their Phase III as a result.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nevada, Clark County sees largest daily spike in COVID-19 cases since pandemic began
> 
> 
> Health officials attribute a spike in COVID-19 cases to Nevada going into Phase 2 of its reopening plan two and a half weeks ago and pandemic precautions taking a back seat.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ktnv.com




I read a review online that said it was like pre-covide at the Cosmopolitan, crowded and the only people in masks were the staff.  The person writing the article mentioned they were asked why they were wearing mask...    As much as I enjoy Vegas, if off my list for a while...


----------



## csodjd

1Kflyerguy said:


> I read a review online that said it was like pre-covide at the Cosmopolitan, crowded and the only people in masks were the staff.  The person writing the article mentioned they were asked why they were wearing mask...    As much as I enjoy Vegas, if off my list for a while...


Who'd have thought.... people acting irresponsibly in Las Vegas.


----------



## yeereid

Actually, my friend just returned from Vegas and said the Cosmopolitan was empty in the casino, gym and pools, and the strip barely had any cars or people on the sidewalks. None of the shows are open yet but many of the restaurants and shops are. We're staying at the MGM on comp nights where another friend of mine works. He said occupancy is very low. I only play slots so not too concerned about handling chips as I can sanitize the machine and buttons. I don't move machines a lot and tend to just stay put for an hour or so of "donations". Planning on spending the majority of the days at the pool and then dining out. Pretty low key.


----------



## Luanne

yeereid said:


> Actually, my friend just returned from Vegas and said the Cosmopolitan was empty in the casino, gym and pools, and the strip barely had any cars or people on the sidewalks. None of the shows are open yet but many of the restaurants and shops are. We're staying at the MGM on comp nights where another friend of mine works. He said occupancy is very low. I only play slots so not too concerned about handling chips as I can sanitize the machine and buttons. I don't move machines a lot and tend to just stay put for an hour or so of "donations". Planning on spending the majority of the days at the pool and then dining out. Pretty low key.


We were talking about casinos opening a couple of days ago.  Thought an app on the phone that would play the slot machines for you would be a good thing.  It could be totally contactless.


----------



## Yellowfin

18 cases today in Oahu. They cannot blame it on out of state tourists.


----------



## slip

Yellowfin said:


> 18 cases today in Oahu. They cannot blame it on out of state tourists.



No, but there have been a couple of active clusters they have been monitoring.


----------



## Yellowfin

slip said:


> No, but there have been a couple of active clusters they have been monitoring.


unfortunately we all know the cockroach principle.


----------



## Luanne

Yellowfin said:


> unfortunately we all know the cockroach principle.


I don't.  Why don't you explain it to me.


----------



## controller1

Yellowfin said:


> unfortunately we all know the cockroach principle.





Luanne said:


> I don't.  Why don't you explain it to me.



From a Google search: The *cockroach principle* says that if you see one *cockroach* running across the floor, there are many more that you don't see in the walls and other hidden spaces. By extension, it means that if you see one of something - such as an employee stealing from the company - there are many more whom you don't see.


----------



## lynne

Yellowfin said:


> 18 cases today in Oahu. They cannot blame it on out of state tourists.



Most likely not visitors, but traveling from the mainland is an issue with the spread
Hawai‘i County Civil Defense reported that two active cases remain on the Big Island as of Thursday morning, both of which are travel-related.


----------



## Yellowfin

lynne said:


> Most likely not visitors, but traveling from the mainland is an issue with the spread
> Hawai‘i County Civil Defense reported that two active cases remain on the Big Island as of Thursday morning, both of which are travel-related.


"
The Hawaii Department of Health reported 18 new cases of COVID-19 today, all on Oahu. Fifteen of the cases are Hawaii residents; three others remain under investigation.

State Epidemiologist Sarah Park said most of the cases are the result of community spread and only a handful have been travel-related.

"This spike in cases and other recent spikes have been expected as people begin to move around more freely and more businesses are reopening," Park said in a news release."









						Hawaii Updates:18 New Cases, 10 Test Positive At Hale Nani; 2nd Resident Arrested In Quarantine Case
					

Updated: 6/18/2020, 5:21 p.m.The Hawaii Department of Health reported 18 new cases of COVID-19 today, all on Oahu. Fifteen of the cases are Hawaii…




					www.hawaiipublicradio.org


----------



## slip

Yellowfin said:


> "
> The Hawaii Department of Health reported 18 new cases of COVID-19 today, all on Oahu. Fifteen of the cases are Hawaii residents; three others remain under investigation.
> 
> State Epidemiologist Sarah Park said most of the cases are the result of community spread and only a handful have been travel-related.
> 
> "This spike in cases and other recent spikes have been expected as people begin to move around more freely and more businesses are reopening," Park said in a news release."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii Updates:18 New Cases, 10 Test Positive At Hale Nani; 2nd Resident Arrested In Quarantine Case
> 
> 
> Updated: 6/18/2020, 5:21 p.m.The Hawaii Department of Health reported 18 new cases of COVID-19 today, all on Oahu. Fifteen of the cases are Hawaii…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiipublicradio.org



But still, a hand full of 18 cases is still 28% that are travel related. It’s not as insignificant as “a hand full” seems to project.


----------



## lynne

Yellowfin said:


> "
> The Hawaii Department of Health reported 18 new cases of COVID-19 today, all on Oahu. Fifteen of the cases are Hawaii residents; three others remain under investigation.
> 
> State Epidemiologist Sarah Park said most of the cases are the result of community spread and only a handful have been travel-related.
> 
> "This spike in cases and other recent spikes have been expected as people begin to move around more freely and more businesses are reopening," Park said in a news release."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii Updates:18 New Cases, 10 Test Positive At Hale Nani; 2nd Resident Arrested In Quarantine Case
> 
> 
> Updated: 6/18/2020, 5:21 p.m.The Hawaii Department of Health reported 18 new cases of COVID-19 today, all on Oahu. Fifteen of the cases are Hawaii…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiipublicradio.org


Yes, 18 new cases on Oahu, the 2 cases on Hawai'i Island were from this week.  Operative word 'active cases'









						Oklahoma visitor dies of apparent drowning while breaking 14-day passenger quarantine
					

An Oklahoma visitor who apparently drowned Wednesday at Spitting Caves died 10 days into the 14-day mandatory self-quarantine that he was supposed to complete.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## amy241

Volunteer sleuths of Hawaii Quarantine Kapu Breakers track down state’s quarantine scofflaws
					

Former longtime television reporter Angela Keen knows how to track people down.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## PigsDad

amy241 said:


> Volunteer sleuths of Hawaii Quarantine Kapu Breakers track down state’s quarantine scofflaws
> 
> 
> Former longtime television reporter Angela Keen knows how to track people down.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com







Kurt


----------



## lynne

Interesting article:








						How Hawaii Became a Rare Covid Success Story
					

The islands’ geography and small population helped. But so did two enterprising doctors who pushed for aggressive tracing and testing—and sometimes found themselves at odds.




					www.politico.com


----------



## csodjd

Here is the Alaska travel information. The interesting part is the "minimize interactions" pending a second test after arrival. It is a bit vague what that means exactly. Also note that the State of Alaska has one set of rules and the City of Anchorage has slightly different rules, especially with what "minimize interactions" means.





__





						COVID-19 in Alaska, Department of Health and Social Services
					






					covid19.alaska.gov
				








__





						COVID-19 in Alaska, Department of Health and Social Services
					






					covid19.alaska.gov
				




Anchorage information:








						COVID-19 Traveler Information | Visit Anchorage
					

Travel safety information and COVID-19 public health precautions for visitors to Anchorage, Alaska. Learn about the Healthy Anchorage Pledge, municipal mandates, and more.



					www.anchorage.net
				








According to the STATE'S FAQ (not Anchorage), here is what "minimize interactions" means. 

_When a person has a negative test result, it provides value as a measure from a single point in time.   That’s why travelers with a single test result do not have to go into quarantine. 
However, that single test doesn’t account for possible exposure just before or after the test (for example, if you test before you travel, you could be exposed to another traveler who is carrying the virus).

Individuals are expected to get pre-tested, and with that negative test result they are asked to minimize their public interactions until they’ve received a second negative test result or 14 days have passed. Minimizing interactions does not mean quarantine, but you do need to take more precautions than the usual COVID safety advice.

When you buy food, eat in outdoor settings.  Order delivery if possible. Wear a face covering if you go into public areas.  Take part in outdoor recreation (such as fishing) instead of visiting a museum. Postpone attending gatherings until after this window is over. 

If you have to be in an indoor space, such as taking a short flight or riding in a shuttle to get to your lodge or outdoor activity, then everyone involved should wash their hands thoroughly and wear a face mask._

In the City of Anchorage, in-restaurant dining is not allowed as part of minimizing interactions. You also cannot visit indoor entertainment venues, like theaters or museums.


----------



## csodjd

Just looking at the Alaska protocol, it seems the best approach is test 5 days or less before going, then again at the airport when you arrive. Assuming you get those results in a couple days, you are then free and don't have to "minimize interactions" at all, thereby removing any dine-in restrictions.

Of course, Hawaii lends itself much more to outdoor dining than Alaska I would assume. The "minimize interactions" in Hawaii would not be hard at all for most people, except possibly somewhat with the avoiding of group activities.


----------



## JanT

It's going to be interesting to see what they do.  Honestly, I wish we had taken the plunge and gone for an extended stay, done the quarantine, and taken advantage of the quietness while we could.  But didn't do it because we decided to put our house on the market and it takes a lot of outside upkeep to keep it looking good.  So, I'm living vicariously through the few that have done it.



cman said:


> Say's we should expect an announcement from Governor Ige this week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gov. David Ige reportedly close to announcing testing protocol, loosened quarantine
> 
> 
> Gov. David Ige’s administration is poised to adopt a COVID-19 testing protocol similar to one being used by Alaska, and is expected to announce as early as this week that at least some travelers will be allowed to bypass Hawaii’s two-week quarantine requirement this summer if they provide proof...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## geist1223

¿I guess Alaska and Hawaii are close? ¿Similar Travel Restrictions?


----------



## csodjd

geist1223 said:


> ¿I guess Alaska and Hawaii are close? ¿Similar Travel Restrictions?


? All we can go by is that the Governor appears to be looking at Alaska as an example.


----------



## rickandcindy23

Oh, yes, I think Hawaii should just stay closed through the rest of the year and continue to take a lot of federal assistance so Hawaiians do not starve.  That's better than people going back to work, apparently.   A huge number of Hawaiians depend on tourism.  

I have never seen such an overreaction to a virus in my entire life as we have done with this one.  Polio didn't shut down schools and affected children and adults alike.  No one stayed home and people didn't stop shaking hands.  This is unbelievable.  And that is not a political statement.  It seems to be both sides of the aisle that share this paranoia.


----------



## Luanne

rickandcindy23 said:


> Oh, yes, I think Hawaii should just stay closed through the rest of the year and continue to take a lot of federal assistance so Hawaiians do not starve.  That's better than people going back to work, apparently.   A huge number of Hawaiians depend on tourism.
> 
> I have never seen such an overreaction to a virus in my entire life as we have done with this one.  Polio didn't shut down schools and affected children and adults alike.  No one stayed home and people didn't stop shaking hands.  This is unbelievable.  And that is not a political statement.  It seems to be both sides of the aisle that share this paranoia.


Never mind.


----------



## BagsArePacked

rickandcindy23 said:


> Oh, yes, I think Hawaii should just stay closed through the rest of the year and continue to take a lot of federal assistance so Hawaiians do not starve. That's better than people going back to work, apparently. A huge number of Hawaiians depend on tourism.
> 
> I have never seen such an overreaction to a virus in my entire life as we have done with this one. Polio didn't shut down schools and affected children and adults alike. No one stayed home and people didn't stop shaking hands. This is unbelievable. And that is not a political statement. It seems to be both sides of the aisle that share this paranoia.


 You are not the only person experiencing inconvenience or loss. 

Therapy may be needed for the "It's all about me" syndrome exhibited throughout the many whines.  Good luck. 

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Hmm,  the guidelines for Anchorage say you do curbside pickup or meal delivery but can't eat at a restaurant until passing the in state test.    That may prove to be pretty restrictive to most Hawaii travelers.  If its truly no indoor/outdoor dining, bars etc, just takeout then that kind of different vacation for many.   Probably works better for timeshare guests than hotel guests...

Regardless i am looking forward to seeing the actual plan for Hawaii.


----------



## csodjd

1Kflyerguy said:


> Hmm,  the guidelines for Anchorage say you do curbside pickup or meal delivery but can't eat at a restaurant until passing the in state test.    That may prove to be pretty restrictive to most Hawaii travelers.  If its truly no indoor/outdoor dining, bars etc, just takeout then that kind of different vacation for many.   Probably works better for timeshare guests than hotel guests...
> 
> Regardless i am looking forward to seeing the actual plan for Hawaii.


My guess is that there is a LOT more outdoor dining in Hawaii than in Anchorage. And the "Alaska" allows for outdoor, just not indoor. But getting that second test upon arrival would still be the best bet so that you have results in 2-3 days and you're good to go.


----------



## "Roger"

The worst year for Polio was 1952. There were about 56,000 reported cases. By way of comparison, there were about 30,000 confirmed cases of coVid-19 in the Unites States just today. It will take two days to surpass the worst year for Polio. Admittedly many, but by no means all, people recover from coVid-19 without lifelong problems, but there have been about 122,000 deaths from coVid-19 in the US to date and it is only June. All of this would be much worse if at least a good portion of people weren't taking defensive steps.

We can argue about what should be done, but don't minimize the seriousness of the current outbreak. It is not just another virus.


----------



## Yellowfin

rickandcindy23 said:


> Oh, yes, I think Hawaii should just stay closed through the rest of the year and continue to take a lot of federal assistance so Hawaiians do not starve.  That's better than people going back to work, apparently.   A huge number of Hawaiians depend on tourism.
> 
> I have never seen such an overreaction to a virus in my entire life as we have done with this one.  Polio didn't shut down schools and affected children and adults alike.  No one stayed home and people didn't stop shaking hands.  This is unbelievable.  And that is not a political statement.  It seems to be both sides of the aisle that share this paranoia.





"Roger" said:


> The worst year for Polio was 1952. There were about 56,000 reported cases. By way of comparison, there were about 30,000 confirmed cases of coVid-19 in the Unites States just today. It will take two days to surpass the worst year for Polio. Admittedly many, but by no means all, people recover from coVid-19 without lifelong problems, but there have been about 122,000 deaths from coVid-19 in the US to date and it is only June. All of this would be much worse if at least a good portion of people weren't taking defensive steps.
> 
> We can argue about what should be done, but don't minimize the seriousness of the current outbreak. It is not just another virus.


The way they count, it may be more accurate to say deaths with Covid rather than deaths from Covid


----------



## Ken555

Yellowfin said:


> The way they count, it may be more accurate to say deaths with Covid rather than deaths from Covid



And the true death totals won’t be known for a long time, if ever.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> And the true death totals won’t be known for a long time, if ever.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


If one examines the death data on flu and pneumonia you'll see that it is largely a mathematical estimate and not a count. There is much ambiguity in cause of death in many of these cases. For the poster that asserts that the totals only reflect those that die "with" COVID as opposed to "from" COVID, I'd say that's a fairly naive statement, or perhaps a political one. If somebody with asymptomatic COVID is walking across the street and is hit by a car and killed, that's not recorded as a COVID death. THAT would be dying "with" and not "from" COVID. 

But when someone has symptomatic COVID with O2 levels of 78% and is in the ICU, has a stroke, and dies, that is dying "from" COVID -- even though it is, of course, POSSIBLE that the person just had a coincidental stroke that would have happened anyway and it was a "stroke" that was the immediate cause of death. But it is far more likely that the stroke was brought on by COVID. In the same way, the flu doesn't kill anyone -- it causes things that kills people (usually pneumonia).


----------



## Yellowfin

csodjd said:


> If one examines the death data on flu and pneumonia you'll see that it is largely a mathematical estimate and not a count. There is much ambiguity in cause of death in many of these cases. For the poster that asserts that the totals only reflect those that die "with" COVID as opposed to "from" COVID, I'd say that's a fairly naive statement, or perhaps a political one. If somebody with asymptomatic COVID is walking across the street and is hit by a car and killed, that's not recorded as a COVID death. THAT would be dying "with" and not "from" COVID.
> 
> But when someone has symptomatic COVID with O2 levels of 78% and is in the ICU, has a stroke, and dies, that is dying "from" COVID -- even though it is, of course, POSSIBLE that the person just had a coincidental stroke that would have happened anyway and it was a "stroke" that was the immediate cause of death. But it is far more likely that the stroke was brought on by COVID. In the same way, the flu doesn't kill anyone -- it causes things that kills people (usually pneumonia).


Few weeks ago one of my best friend's father died in the hospital at the age of 103. Among others, he had severe respiratory problems. He tested negative for Covid.
Does anyone doubt that had he tested positive, the cause of death would have been recorded as C-19? I do not.


----------



## MommaBear

geist1223 said:


> ¿I guess Alaska and Hawaii are close? ¿Similar Travel Restrictions?


They are generally close on US maps, it's a surprise the weather is so different...


----------



## MommaBear

Yellowfin said:


> The way they count, it may be more accurate to say deaths with Covid rather than deaths from Covid


The way death certificates are written is that the first line is what killed the person that day, the subsequent lines are contributing factors. So, if you have cancer, diabetes, heart disease but are living with it day to day, then you get Covid and die, the Covid is listed as the first reason, because it is what caused you to die today. So, technically, you die from Covid 19. If you have Covid 19 but die in an MVA, your death certificate should read "blunt force trauma in an MVA", Covid is secondary


----------



## DavidnRobin

csodjd said:


> If one examines the death data on flu and pneumonia you'll see that it is largely a mathematical estimate and not a count. There is much ambiguity in cause of death in many of these cases. For the poster that asserts that the totals only reflect those that die "with" COVID as opposed to "from" COVID, I'd say that's a fairly naive statement, or perhaps a political one. If somebody with asymptomatic COVID is walking across the street and is hit by a car and killed, that's not recorded as a COVID death. THAT would be dying "with" and not "from" COVID.
> 
> But when someone has symptomatic COVID with O2 levels of 78% and is in the ICU, has a stroke, and dies, that is dying "from" COVID -- even though it is, of course, POSSIBLE that the person just had a coincidental stroke that would have happened anyway and it was a "stroke" that was the immediate cause of death. But it is far more likely that the stroke was brought on by COVID. In the same way, the flu doesn't kill anyone -- it causes things that kills people (usually pneumonia).



It’s called big data...
Epidemiologists and Statisticians will be able to evaluate death records (non-accident) and then compare to past deaths rates during similar time periods to estimate deaths due to C-19. In the long run - it is about death rates - as well as morbidity (there is more morbidly with CV compared to influenzas or other other pneumatic illnesses).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## geist1223

How do the last 10 or so Posts have anything to do with the Thread Title? I am so confused. Do not understand why people torso far off topic. Why not just start a new thread? It is not hard to do.


----------



## Luanne

geist1223 said:


> How do the last 10 or so Posts have anything to do with the Thread Title? I am so confused. Do not understand why people torso far off topic. Why not just start a new thread? It is not hard to do.


You've been on this site for how long now?  It's very easy for us to get off track.


----------



## geist1223

Luanne said:


> You've been on this site for how long now?  It's very easy for us to get off track.




One can only hope. I decide to read a Thread based upon its Title. Then I have to wade through all the nonrelevant trash. Even worse when there are appropriate Threads for folks to post their comments.


----------



## Luanne

geist1223 said:


> One can only hope.


Sometimes, or maybe many times, when I see a thread I haven't looked at the title, or how it started and I'm just responding to the last post.  Or even if I have read the earlier posts I get excited about the turns and twists it's taken.  And sometimes, I'm the one that takes it off track.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> Few weeks ago one of my best friend's father died in the hospital at the age of 103. Among others, he had severe respiratory problems. He tested negative for Covid.
> Does anyone doubt that had he tested positive, the cause of death would have been recorded as C-19? I do not.


So I guess then that the suggestion is since we'd all die of something if not COVID, COVID isn't the proximate cause of anyone dying? How long does someone with COVID that died have to have been expected to live before COVID would be the cause of death?

The fact is, irrespective of age and comorbidities, if COVID was the "immediate" (proximate) cause of the death or was the agent that started the cascade of events leading to death, the contributing factors are not germane. The individual died today, now, because of COVID.


----------



## csodjd

geist1223 said:


> How do the last 10 or so Posts have anything to do with the Thread Title? I am so confused. Do not understand why people torso far off topic. Why not just start a new thread? It is not hard to do.


It's called normal human conversation. It flows. Naturally. It is UNnatural to say, oh, I have a response or want to respond to that post, but I'll go somewhere else to post my response. Indeed, if you want to be strict and unnatural, your post complaining about the posts being "off topic" should itself have been in another Thread, shouldn't it?


----------



## csodjd

geist1223 said:


> One can only hope. I decide to read a Thread based upon its Title. Then I have to wade through all the nonrelevant trash. Even worse when there are appropriate Threads for folks to post their comments.


There are almost 800 posts in this thread. If you thought you'd start at post 1 and when you arrived at 790 there would be no off-topic posts and post 790 would be just as on-topic as post 1, and every post in between would also be spot on and exactly and only what you expected, I think you've set a bar that's unattainable in human conversation. But, that's just my off-topic opinion.


----------



## Kapolei

Things are great here right now. Governor to make announcements soon.


----------



## geist1223

Lock it up.


----------



## Kapolei

csodjd said:


> So I guess then that the suggestion is since we'd all die of something if not COVID, COVID isn't the proximate cause of anyone dying? How long does someone with COVID that died have to have been expected to live before COVID would be the cause of death?
> 
> The fact is, irrespective of age and comorbidities, if COVID was the "immediate" (proximate) cause of the death or was the agent that started the cascade of events leading to death, the contributing factors are not germane. The individual died today, now, because of COVID.



If I push a log in a river and the log is the straw that breaks the beaver dam, am I responsible for the beavers being homeless?


----------



## amy241

Justice Department urges Gov. David Ige to lift out-of-state quarantine
					

The U.S. Department of Justice is the newest powerful interest pressuring Gov. David Ige to reopen Hawaii’s out-of-state tourism.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## Yellowfin

It is official, as of August 1st no quarantine for those that have a negative C19 test. Details to follow. Governor Ige said he knows the number of cases will go up but they are better prepared now.


----------



## echino

Replying to the thread title question: Yes.


----------



## Luanne

You might be able to get into Hawaii August 1 (as long as you've been tested, and it's negative) but how much will be open at that point?


----------



## slip

Luanne said:


> You might be able to get into Hawaii August 1 (as long as you've been tested, and it's negative) but how much will be open at that point?



Yes, you will want to verify the places you want to go and stay before you come.


----------



## csodjd

Watching live press conference now. Apparently will partner with CVS to get results and plans to add other large "partners." Test within 72 hours before departure. Still looking at travel "bubbles" with NZ, Aus, Japan and S. Korea which would allow them to travel in without testing.


----------



## DavidnRobin

It looks like the Governor finally listened to me...
Meaning... factual... that I posted that HI should implement pre-arrival C-19 testing in the other meandering and opinionated HI Opening thread in order to open up HI to travel.

While not perfect - it will go along way to keep cases down (as long as everyone on plane has tested negative) and other C-19 related questions and temp reading (and masks and social distancing) - all that factually inhibit the spread of the virus.  


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## luv_maui

Per governor:  $90 million, for thermal temperature stuff at airport, etc.  supposedly only kept for 30 minutes, no privacy violated.


----------



## dsmrp

The covid test pre-arrival or post-arrival should r/o the asymptomatic people.
However there's still a window in which visitors could be sick and spread the virus while in Hawaii.
Say a person gets a test 2 or 3 days before flight, and gets exposed plus/minus 1 day from test.  Probably they won't have had time to develop enough levels of virus to be detected by the test.  So then later while in Hawaii they become symptomatic.

Hawaii will eventually have to open and have some more exposure I guess ...


----------



## slip

dsmrp said:


> The covid test pre-arrival or post-arrival should r/o the asymptomatic people.
> However there's still a window in which visitors could be sick and spread the virus while in Hawaii.
> Say a person gets a test 2 or 3 days before flight, and gets exposed plus/minus 1 day from test.  Probably they won't have had time to develop enough levels of virus to be detected by the test.  So then later while in Hawaii they become symptomatic.



Yes, the Governor said he is aware of that and they do expect cases to go up but Hawaii is in a better position with testing and tracing than they were at the start of the pandemic.


----------



## luv_maui

slip said:


> Yes, the Governor said he is aware of that and they do expect cases to go up but Hawaii is in a better position with testing and tracing than they were at the start of the pandemic.


Governor in press conference stated 200 contact tracers in place + another 300 available by 7/31/2020.


----------



## csodjd

luv_maui said:


> Governor in press conference stated 200 contact tracers in place + another 300 available by 7/31/2020.


And PPE supplied, and hospitals equipped to handle more illness. It's not about keeping it out, it's about managing and living with it.


----------



## TravelTime

Yay! Hawaii is reopening. I am so happy to hear this. I am still in wait and see mode to travel to Hawaii but I am thrilled it is now on my travel list.


----------



## oneohana

Here in LA County test results are normally 3 to 5 days.
What do you do, test 3 days prior and hope your test results come in?


----------



## BagsArePacked

oneohana said:


> Here in LA County test results are normally 3 to 5 days.
> What do you do, test 3 days prior and hope your test results come in?


A partnership has been formed with CVS pharmacies that would have the test results available within the 3 day requirement.  Further approved vendor partnerships to follow.  (Approximately $150)

Masks are required to enter stores/businesses and distancing is requested.  No masks on beaches but do spread out.

Community effort required to keep each other safe.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Luanne said:


> You might be able to get into Hawaii August 1 (as long as you've been tested, and it's negative) but how much will be open at that point?



Good Question!  That's why we moved our plans from September to November.  By November we should know if Hawaii is a hot bed of virus and things should be open if they are not out of business and will never open.


----------



## pedro47

When will the Governor of Hawaii, release his latest travel order?


----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> You might be able to get into Hawaii August 1 (as long as you've been tested, and it's negative) but how much will be open at that point?


My guess is they're (businesses) going to try to open. The Gov isn't opening up to tourism for the tourists, he's doing it for the businesses that need tourists. He's given them a solid six weeks to prepare.


----------



## PamMo

The lawsuit has forced Gov. Ige to rethink quarantining visitors to the islands. Starting August 1st, you'll be able to skip the quarantine if you have valid paperwork with a negative coronavirus test.



			Hawaii to implement pre-arrival COVID-19 test option as quarantine alternative
		


_Tourists to Hawaii will be exempted from the quarantine rule upon arrival from different states if they carry a valid coronavirus test result prior to th__e visit, Governor David Ige said late on Wednesday._​​_"Beginning August 1, we will be implementing pre-travel testing program for travellers to Hawaii as an alternative for 14-day mandatory quarantine," Ige said in a briefing._​


----------



## Mary W

My husband and I just did the drive-though Covid-19 testing offered in our community by Project Baseline.  It was easy to schedule and conveniently located.  But it took *6 days* to get our results back. (Both of us were negative. ) This wouldn't have worked if we were planning a trip to Hawaii.


----------



## Luanne

BagsArePacked said:


> A partnership has been formed with CVS pharmacies that would have the test results available within the 3 day requirement.  Further approved vendor partnerships to follow.  (Approximately $150)
> 
> Masks are required to enter stores/businesses and distancing is requested.  No masks on beaches but do spread out.
> 
> Community effort required to keep each other safe.


This sounds great, but what about areas that don't have a CVS?  I guess they would need to rely on other methods to get tested.


----------



## BigDawgTUG

June 24 Update on Hawaii Quarantine:  *Beginning August 1, travelers to Hawaii who have a valid negative COVID-19 test result up to 72 hours prior to arriving at Hawaii’s airports will not be subject to the 14-day quarantine. The FDA-approved PCR test from a CLIA-certified laboratory must be done prior to arrival. No testing will be provided upon arrival at the airport. Click here to view the press release.*

Note that it is 72 hours prior to arrival, so you essentially have to get your test done and results back no more than two days before departure.  Looks like I'll need to let my August 1 reservation go.  PM for 6-nights, 2BR, Ocean Front, at Marriott's Maui Ocean Club - Lahaina & Napili Towers


----------



## teddyo333

My Experience: How Hawaii's Pre-Travel Testing Program Works
					

Traveling to Hawaii? Here's everything you need to know about the state's pre-travel coronavirus testing program, known as "Safe Travels."




					onemileatatime.com


----------



## csodjd

Mary W said:


> My husband and I just did the drive-though Covid-19 testing offered in our community by Project Baseline.  It was easy to schedule and conveniently located.  But it took *6 days* to get our results back. (Both of us were negative. ) This wouldn't have worked if we were planning a trip to Hawaii.


I believe there are some details still to be worked out and released. One I have seen floated is that if you were tested but don't have results back you must quarantine until you have the results. There would be risk, of course, because if it came back positive now you have to quarantine. But otherwise you may find yourself having to quarantine for a day or two, which would be frustrating, but not a deal killer.

We are going in late October. Our plan is to largely self-quarantine at home for two weeks before testing/departure to pretty much guarantee a negative test.


----------



## Mushed

We have reservations starting August 2nd, so we’re trying to decide what to do. Our flight was actually July 31 as we had also booked a few nights at Grand Wailea before we go to the Westin Villas, and it was already cancelled. 

My husband was thinking if we got tested but didn’t have results back by the time we arrived we could quarantine until they came in. Interested in feedback on that plan! I read the Marriott thread of a guest voluntarily quarantining for the 14 days. Sounds like transpo from the airport could be a sticking point, especially for us with two kids. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## buzglyd

I haven’t been tested and I’m wondering are the results instant or does it take a few days?

I’ve got a Sept 29 reservation so things may change by then.


----------



## Luanne

buzglyd said:


> I haven’t been tested and I’m wondering are the results instant or does it take a few days?
> 
> I’ve got a Sept 29 reservation so things may change by then.


One person I know here who was tested said it took her 6 days to get results, she was told it would take 4 days.

I read that Hawaii is somehow partnering with CVS to get tests with faster results.  I guess that might work if you have a CVS near by.


----------



## YYJMSP

Luanne said:


> I read that Hawaii is somehow partnering with CVS to get tests with faster results.  I guess that might work if you have a CVS near by.



And what about for those of us who don't live in the USA???


----------



## Luanne

YYJMSP said:


> And what about for those of us who don't live in the USA???


Can't help you. Sorry.  Do you have testing available in Canada that provides fast results?


----------



## pedro47

Question you could test negative entering the airport and someone in the airport could be positive and not know it. Thus, when you land in Hawaii after a 10 to 14 hours flights. 
You could test positive what happen then. Will everyone on the plane be forced to stay in a hotel for 14 days????.


----------



## Henry M.

Here's the CVS site for COVID testing. They claim $0 cost if you have health insurance: https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing. Results come back in 2-4 days.


----------



## Luanne

Henry M. said:


> Here's the CVS site for COVID testing. They claim $0 cost if you have health insurance: https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing. Results come back in 2-4 days.


This is where our friend got tested.  She was told 2 to 4 days for results by email, but I think it took closer to 6 days.


----------



## rickandcindy23

Luanne said:


> This is where our friend got tested.  She was told 2 to 4 days for results by email, but I think it took closer to 6 days.


This is keeping me from feeling good about going to Maui in August.  We have two weeks booked.  I cannot imagine going under this kind of stress.  Plus, I don't think our flights are going to happen.  We were supposed to fly to Maui nonstop from Denver.  That flight was not full at all, and it looks like I cannot check for different seats, so I have to assume the flight is cancelled.


----------



## Luanne

rickandcindy23 said:


> This is keeping me from feeling good about going to Maui in August.  We have two weeks booked.  I cannot imagine going under this kind of stress.  Plus, I don't think our flights are going to happen.  We were supposed to fly to Maui nonstop from Denver.  That flight was not full at all, and it looks like I cannot check for different seats, so I have to assume the flight is cancelled.


I wouldn't assume the flight has been cancelled.  It could be that if their plan is to distance passengers they may have hit capacity.


----------



## luv_maui

Henry M. said:


> Here's the CVS site for COVID testing. They claim $0 cost if you have health insurance: https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing. Results come back in 2-4 days.


I checked out this site.  You have to currently complete questions to see if you qualify for a test.  So until Hawaii has their official finalized agreement in place, those going to hawaii would either not qualify for the test or shouldn’t be going to hawaii


----------



## Yellowfin

Luanne said:


> This is where our friend got tested.  She was told 2 to 4 days for results by email, but I think it took closer to 6 days.


Unfortunately not many people will keep their reservations not knowing if they can get their results in time. Also, a lot of tests are false positive. In a family of 5, the chance is probably higher than 50% that one of them will be a false positive so the whole family would have to stay home.


----------



## Luanne

luv_maui said:


> I checked out this site.  You have to currently complete questions to see if you qualify for a test.  So until Hawaii has their official finalized agreement in place, those going to hawaii would either not qualify for the test or shouldn’t be going to hawaii


After reading your post I checked the site as well.  It looks like they won't just test anyone unless you are showing some type of symptoms.  I know that our governor keeps saying that anyone can get tested, but it may not be someplace where you can get quick results.

So, I wonder if this agreement that Hawaii is going to have with CVS is going to relax the requirements for testing.


----------



## Luanne

Yellowfin said:


> Unfortunately not many people will keep their reservations not knowing if they can get their results in time. Also, a lot of tests are false positive. In a family of 5, the chance is probably higher than 50% that one of them will be a false positive so the whole family would have to stay home.


It sounds like there is just too much uncertainly if you could get tested and get results in time.  Personally I would be very nervous about planning a trip and putting money out upfront that might have to be cancelled at the last minute.


----------



## YYJMSP

Luanne said:


> Can't help you. Sorry.  Do you have testing available in Canada that provides fast results?



Even if we did (not sure actually), would Hawaii accept test results from there?  So many details for them to work out to make this actually feasible...

Not that we're going to Hawaii anytime this year now.


----------



## BigDawgTUG

luv_maui said:


> I checked out this site.  You have to currently complete questions to see if you qualify for a test.  So until Hawaii has their official finalized agreement in place, those going to hawaii would either not qualify for the test or shouldn’t be going to hawaii



I called many of the companies offering testing in Orange County, CA (UCI, CVS, Rite Aid, Hoag and other urgent care providers).  Without exception, they either require you to have symptoms in order to be tested, or they cannot guarantee results back faster than 3 days.  The problem with 3 days is that the 72 hour Hawaii requirement is at the time you land.  That means, you really need to be tested within two days of departure.  I understand the thought to quarantine for a few days, but if you only can stay a week, what do you do if someone in your party tests positive, either actual or a false positive?  What a nightmare!  Further, even if you get results back before you leave, it will probably by then be too late to cancel reservations if needed.  So, as much as I appreciate the effort to open back up, it does not seem to be a viable option for most.


----------



## luv_maui

Luanne said:


> After reading your post I checked the site as well.  It looks like they won't just test anyone unless you are showing some type of symptoms.  I know that our governor keeps saying that anyone can get tested, but it may not be someplace where you can get quick results.
> 
> So, I wonder if this agreement that Hawaii is going to have with CVS is going to relax the requirements for testing.


I would have to believe so, otherwise why develop a formal agreement?  The criteria has to be a confirmed reservation flight and/or accommodations to hawaii, because otherwise you don’t currently qualify for a test.  And if you did qualify for a test under current rules, you probably shouldn’t go or will probably test positive.   Within 72 hrs of departure with wait time is definitely a potential issue unless the test results are truly within 1-2 days after test is taken.


----------



## csodjd

Yellowfin said:


> Unfortunately not many people will keep their reservations not knowing if they can get their results in time. Also, a lot of tests are false positive. In a family of 5, the chance is probably higher than 50% that one of them will be a false positive so the whole family would have to stay home.


False positives from PCR tests are not common. False negatives are more common. In that case the concern is landing in Hawaii with a fever. May be a lot of people handing out Tylenol to the family about an hour before landing!


----------



## CO skier

There is not an unlimited supply of Covid tests available.  Offering people who feel well enough to travel to Hawaii, or anywhere else, the option to avoid quarantine with proof of a negative Covid test places an unnecessary demand on the limited supply for front line workers and people who may really have Covid-19.  Seems like just another bureaucratic blunder.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Luanne said:


> After reading your post I checked the site as well.  It looks like they won't just test anyone unless you are showing some type of symptoms.  I know that our governor keeps saying that anyone can get tested, but it may not be someplace where you can get quick results.
> 
> So, I wonder if this agreement that Hawaii is going to have with CVS is going to relax the requirements for testing.



In my country the testing is free, but think you need to have symptoms to qualify for the free test.  Those tests are not really free, its just that the government is paying for them,  Since CVS and the other partners will be charging for the travel related tests, i am sure you will be able to get tested without symptoms.   Paying cash money probably also expedites the test result. 

Now maybe that is not a great use of resources.... but that a different question.

We have a trip planned for late September,  hopefully they will have worked the kinks out by then...


----------



## Luanne

1Kflyerguy said:


> In my country the testing is free, but think you need to have symptoms to qualify for the free test.  Those tests are not really free, its just that the government is paying for them,  Since CVS and the other partners will be charging for the travel related tests, i am sure you will be able to get tested without symptoms.   Paying cash money probably also expedites the test result.
> 
> Now maybe that is not a great use of resources.... but that a different question.
> 
> We have a trip planned for late September,  hopefully they will have worked the kinks out by then...


You mean your county, right?  You said country.   It looks like from the CVS link that CVS will not charge for testing IF you have symptoms.


----------



## luv_maui

Mushed said:


> We have reservations starting August 2nd, so we’re trying to decide what to do. Our flight was actually July 31 as we had also booked a few nights at Grand Wailea before we go to the Westin Villas, and it was already cancelled.
> 
> My husband was thinking if we got tested but didn’t have results back by the time we arrived we could quarantine until they came in. Interested in feedback on that plan! I read the Marriott thread of a guest voluntarily quarantining for the 14 days. Sounds like transpo from the airport could be a sticking point, especially for us with two kids.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It looked like uber/Lyft was available at the airport, but didn’t want to chance it, so got a private driver. We took a lyft from ka’anapali to Kihei to pick up our car rental after quarantine.  But going into quarantine upon arrival is an issue unless you plan ahead.  Quarantine means you immediately go to your quarantine location.  No stops for anything.  If you’re staying at a hotel, you’ll have to order every meal room delivered outside your door.  I wouldn’t want to be quarantined in a small hotel room for 1-3 days.  Things should be more open with at least 5 weeks for Maui to prepare.  But currently, in tourist area ka’anapali, very little open.


----------



## luv_maui

buzglyd said:


> I haven’t been tested and I’m wondering are the results instant or does it take a few days?
> 
> I’ve got a Sept 29 reservation so things may change by then.


At news conference yesterday, details still to come, but lieutenant governor stated (at 45:45 of press conference) that hawaii is finalizing a B2B with CVS,  indicating very close to departure and rapid testing.  Kind of implying not an issue for rapid test results but of course, proof is in the details and execution of this plan still to come.


----------



## luv_maui

pedro47 said:


> Question you could test negative entering the airport and someone in the airport could be positive and not know it. Thus, when you land in Hawaii after a 10 to 14 hours flights.
> You could test positive what happen then. Will everyone on the plane be forced to stay in a hotel for 14 days????.


But if you test negative let’s say at a CVS, social distance at airport, and wear a mask, not guaranteed, but chances are on your side as long as you don’t have a temperature or other symptom when you land.  But yes, if you had temperature when you land or other symptoms, I’d guess you’d be quarantined for 14 days so you might as well go back home with most likely a scheduled stay less than 14 days.


----------



## csodjd

CO skier said:


> There is not an unlimited supply of Covid tests available.  Offering people who feel well enough to travel to Hawaii, or anywhere else, the option to avoid quarantine with proof of a negative Covid test places an unnecessary demand on the limited supply for front line workers and people who may really have Covid-19.  Seems like just another bureaucratic blunder.


LA County alone is doing 96,000 per day. I believe the US is doing about 640,000 per day. I'm not sure doing maybe 2,000 per day is that much a burden relative to the 200,000 unemployed people in Hawaii that will benefit from having tourism return. Moreover, some of those getting tested JUST for a trip to Hawaii will unexpectedly test positive, get quarantined and contact traced, and help reduce unwitting spread. We need MORE people randomly tested. Giving people a reason is not necessarily a bad thing.


----------



## bbodb1

Luanne said:


> I read that Hawaii is somehow partnering with CVS to get tests with faster results.  I guess that might work if you have a CVS near by.


Which suggests an idea - is/are all CVS stores able to provide tests and if so, could a traveler get one locally before departing for Hawaii and have that test result satisfy the requirement?


----------



## Luanne

bbodb1 said:


> Which suggests an idea - is/are all CVS stores able to provide tests and if so, could a traveler get one locally before departing for Hawaii and have that test result satisfy the requirement?


I think that is the idea.  If you have a CVS close by, get tested there, within the time frame.  A lot still needs to be worked out.  CVS currently says test results will be back in 2 to 4 days (but someone I know who was tested there got hers back in more like 6 days). Also, the current requirements for CVS to test require you to have some symptoms.  So in order for this to work they will need to adjust their requirements and shorten the time to get results.  Also I "think", but I'd need to go back to the link that told what CVS requires, that it is at their Minute Clinics, which means it's not at all CVS locations.

Here is the link.  It is only the Minute Clinics.

https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing


----------



## csodjd

pedro47 said:


> Question you could test negative entering the airport and someone in the airport could be positive and not know it. Thus, when you land in Hawaii after a 10 to 14 hours flights.
> You could test positive what happen then. Will everyone on the plane be forced to stay in a hotel for 14 days????.


No. Even if you were infected from that kind of brief encounter, which itself is unlikely (especially if the infected person is wearing face protection and didn't cough or sneeze on you), incubation to have sufficient virus to test positive doesn't normally in that short a time frame. It takes some time after exposure. That's one of the causes of false negatives.


----------



## luv_maui

rickandcindy23 said:


> This is keeping me from feeling good about going to Maui in August.  We have two weeks booked.  I cannot imagine going under this kind of stress.  Plus, I don't think our flights are going to happen.  We were supposed to fly to Maui nonstop from Denver.  That flight was not full at all, and it looks like I cannot check for different seats, so I have to assume the flight is cancelled.


We had a direct flight home in July.  Not cancelled, but you couldn’t buy seats for the flight.  Alaska airlines told me they were anticipating cancelling the flight which they did just a couple days ago.  Are you on the United direct flight?  If so, it looked like they were still selling seats and I’d guess if Hawaii can execute their 8/1/20 negative test result alternative to 14 day quarantine, that United won’t cancel the flight.  Obviously later in August is better than early August as kinks are worked out on Hawaii execution and details of their plan, over next 5 weeks


----------



## CO skier

dsmrp said:


> The covid test pre-arrival or post-arrival should r/o the asymptomatic people.
> However there's still a window in which visitors could be sick and spread the virus while in Hawaii.
> Say a person gets a test 2 or 3 days before flight, and gets exposed plus/minus 1 day from test.  Probably they won't have had time to develop enough levels of virus to be detected by the test.  So then later while in Hawaii they become symptomatic.
> 
> Hawaii will eventually have to open and have some more exposure I guess ...


Airports are certainly a vector for Covid-19 transmission.  A few travelers with negative Covid-19 test in-hand will pickup the virus at an airport or at some other time after the testing and before arriving in Hawaii and be asymptomatic for the first few days or for their entire visit.  Even with the pre-arrival testing, Hawaii will see an increase in Covid-19 cases, just like many (most) other areas that are reopening.


----------



## csodjd

CO skier said:


> Airports are certainly a vector for Covid-19 transmission.  A few travelers with negative Covid-19 test in-hand will pickup the virus at an airport or at some other time after the testing and before arriving in Hawaii and be asymptomatic for the first few days or for their entire visit.  Even with the pre-arrival testing, Hawaii will see an increase in Covid-19 cases, just like many (most) other areas that are reopening.


I've not been at an airport yet, but my experience tell me they should not be a vector or high-risk place at all. They are quite open, not at all a closed space where viral load builds in the air. Everyone is moving around and you spend little time in close proximity to anyone (hopefully they have addressed lines/crowding at TSA, etc). For the most part you can easily avoid close engagement with anyone. Assuming most or all are wearing face protection, all in all, it seems to be a far less risky proposition than most work environments, indoor restaurants and similar places. Transport to/from parking, or rental car pickup/dropoff, is more risky than the airport itself.


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> I've not been at an airport yet, but my experience tell me they should not be a vector or high-risk place at all. They are quite open, not at all a closed space where viral load builds in the air. Everyone is moving around and you spend little time in close proximity to anyone (hopefully they have addressed lines/crowding at TSA, etc). For the most part you can easily avoid close engagement with anyone. Assuming most or all are wearing face protection, all in all, it seems to be a far less risky proposition than most work environments, indoor restaurants and similar places. Transport to/from parking, or rental car pickup/dropoff, is more risky than the airport itself.


I haven't been in an airport yet either, but I have the opposite feeling.  Lines, lines, and more lines.....unless as you say they have addressed that issue, but in some airports I've been too I'm not sure how they would.

I did read a report from someone who said the airport where they were the food court was packed, no social distancing.  I'm not sure what they are doing about the waiting areas either.  Taking off every other chair?  Where are people waiting?


----------



## CO skier

csodjd said:


> I've not been at an airport yet, but my experience tell me they should not be a vector or high-risk place at all.











						Airports Expecting Crowding Problem Even With Travel Demand Still Low
					

Social distancing measures will prove to be a challenge.



					www.travelpulse.com
				




*"Right now it might not be an issue, but as the flying public slowly returns to the air, it will become a case of too many people and not enough space. Where once officials were fine with packing in customers like sardines – ticket counters, security checkpoints, seating at the gate – social distancing and the lack of useable space will certainly make things difficult. "*


----------



## dsmrp

I went ahead and cancelled my II exchange for a Big Island week the last week of July.  Even if Gov Ige moved up the neg Covid test alternative from Aug 1,testing in my area is still reserved for those with symptoms. I work for a healthcare org, but not in direct care, and mass testing isn't available for all us non care employees either.


----------



## jabberwocky

YYJMSP said:


> Even if we did (not sure actually), would Hawaii accept test results from there?  So many details for them to work out to make this actually feasible...
> 
> Not that we're going to Hawaii anytime this year now.


My dad got a test a couple of weeks ago in Alberta. Results were back same day. Alberta also just announced today that testing will be available at drug stores for asymptotic individuals.


----------



## TravelTime

I took a test at UC Davis in Roseville. I was negative. I got my results within 24 hours. I would like to test at the center again if I go to Hawaii. However, I would need my doctor to send me there and I am not sure if she will send patients without symptoms for testing. I wonder if testing is started to become required for travel, will doctors let us get tested?


----------



## Yellowfin

csodjd said:


> False positives from PCR tests are not common. False negatives are more common. In that case the concern is landing in Hawaii with a fever. May be a lot of people handing out Tylenol to the family about an hour before landing!


I am not so sure. I have tried to find a clear answer online but I could not. This is what I found








						How Reliable Are COVID-19 Tests?
					

Justin Gilmore was hospitalized and treated for COVID-19. His care team was certain he had it — but he kept testing negative. Why?




					nymag.com


----------



## YYJMSP

jabberwocky said:


> My dad got a test a couple of weeks ago in Alberta. Results were back same day. Alberta also just announced today that testing will be available at drug stores for asymptotic individuals.



interesting.  I am not aware of anything similar in BC...

but second part of the question remains if other jurisdictions, especially other countries, will recognize the results.


----------



## controller1

BigDawgTUG said:


> June 24 Update on Hawaii Quarantine:  *Beginning August 1, travelers to Hawaii who have a valid negative COVID-19 test result up to 72 hours prior to arriving at Hawaii’s airports will not be subject to the 14-day quarantine. The FDA-approved PCR test from a CLIA-certified laboratory must be done prior to arrival. No testing will be provided upon arrival at the airport. Click here to view the press release.*
> 
> Note that it is 72 hours prior to arrival, so you essentially have to get your test done and results back no more than two days before departure.  Looks like I'll need to let my August 1 reservation go.  PM for 6-nights, 2BR, Ocean Front, at Marriott's Maui Ocean Club - Lahaina & Napili Towers



Perhaps there has been a change. I just checked the website and instead of what you quote *"up to 72 hours prior to arriving at Hawaii's airports*" the website now states *"within 72 hours of their trip"* which may mean within 72 hours of the first flight which in my case (due to being an overnight connection) would give me an additional 22 hours prior to arrival at a Hawaii airport.


----------



## nerodog

Starting August 1, travelers will be able to visit Hawaii without having to quarantine if they test negative for COVID-19 prior to arrival, the governor announced on Wednesday.
In a press conference, Gov. David Ige confirmed that visitors must be tested ahead of their flight to Hawaii as tests will not be conducted at any of its airports. Anyone who arrives in Hawaii without the results of a negative test will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine.
Source- Travel and Leisure magazine


----------



## Tamaradarann

Henry M. said:


> Here's the CVS site for COVID testing. They claim $0 cost if you have health insurance: https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing. Results come back in 2-4 days.



I looked at the form you need to fill out and I don't see anything on it about needing the test for travelling.  There are qualifications for the test and they seem to be focused on high risk groups and symptoms which is fine except that with the new exemptions for quarantines for travel that should be a critteria as well.


----------



## amy241

controller1 said:


> Perhaps there has been a change. I just checked the website and instead of what you quote *"up to 72 hours prior to arriving at Hawaii's airports*" the website now states *"within 72 hours of their trip"* which may mean within 72 hours of the first flight which in my case (due to being an overnight connection) would give me an additional 22 hours prior to arrival at a Hawaii airport.



I am sure that testing is required within 72 hours of arrival in HI. We have the same problem. We live on the east coast and break up the trip into 2 days by overnighting in LAX. I really wish he had gone out to 96 hours. We are scheduled to go in November but I am not sure I will be able to handle the crowded airports and flights. I am at a higher risk for serious complications and I am getting really worried about the surges in cases. We live in Florida and it is REALLY getting bad here. We aren’t even leaving our home.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> LA County alone is doing 96,000 per day. I believe the US is doing about 640,000 per day. I'm not sure doing maybe 2,000 per day is that much a burden relative to the 200,000 unemployed people in Hawaii that will benefit from having tourism return. Moreover, some of those getting tested JUST for a trip to Hawaii will unexpectedly test positive, get quarantined and contact traced, and help reduce unwitting spread. We need MORE people randomly tested. Giving people a reason is not necessarily a bad thing.



I agree that giving tests before travel should be a priority.  Having symtoms is obviously a top priority.  I can understand certain high risk groups being a priority also so that the infection is caught early for treatment for life saving.  However, they have been routinely testing many people who "MAY" have been exposed do to their job.  Now that things have opened up in many areas that is everyone everyday who is working near people or public transportation commuting.  That is millions and millions of people who are neither symptomatic or in a high risk group.  Certainly air travel to another location should be as high or higher prior


----------



## JanT

The big question is, now that Hawaii will be "open," albeit with testing requirements, are people going to go?  Are they going to risk spending that kind of money only to find themselves in quarantine?


----------



## Yellowfin

JanT said:


> The big question is, now that Hawaii will be "open," albeit with testing requirements, are people going to go?  Are they going to risk spending that kind of money only to find themselves in quarantine?


It is very risky indeed. Probably some will keep the current reservations but most will think twice before booking anything new. This situation will pose a particular problem to the timeshare owners that rent out their units. Few if any renters will accept a strict cancellation policy and the owners will have to live with the incertitude all the way to the check in date.


----------



## controller1

amy241 said:


> I am sure that testing is required within 72 hours of arrival in HI.



If so then why do you believe the wording on the website was changed?

Also, Hawaii indicates it wants to court visitors from Japan and Australia. Those flights are longer and it will be even more difficult to have results of a test taken no more than 72 hours prior to arrival in Hawaii.


----------



## SmithOp

JanT said:


> The big question is, now that Hawaii will be "open," albeit with testing requirements, are people going to go? Are they going to risk spending that kind of money only to find themselves in quarantine?



I’m still undecided on a Nov 5th arrival at HNL, and I have a premier unit at HHV Lagoon booked so at least its a quarantine with a killer view.

The flights I’m tracking just went up over $100 since this announcement.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


----------



## Tamaradarann

JanT said:


> The big question is, now that Hawaii will be "open," albeit with testing requirements, are people going to go?  Are they going to risk spending that kind of money only to find themselves in quarantine?



Well, if they can tighten up the testing and result procedure so that a test 3 days before a flight gets you results before the flight that should take away the anxiety of worrying about being quarantined if you are in fact negative for the virus and should be going and NOT be quarnatined which is the real issue.  

However, if in fact your ARE positive for the virus not only should you be quarantined, YOU SHOULDN'T BE GOING AT ALL!!  So that if you get a postive test result you are sick and shouldn't be going so the system worked to perfectioin and you won't spread the virus.


----------



## bnoble

JanT said:


> The big question is, now that Hawaii will be "open," albeit with testing requirements, are people going to go?  Are they going to risk spending that kind of money only to find themselves in quarantine?


We're more concerned about the risk of a (very long) flight. I'm still waiting to see to what extent air travel is/is not a risk. So far, it does not seem like a major means of transmission, but that could be because almost no one has been flying for three months.


----------



## csodjd

JanT said:


> The big question is, now that Hawaii will be "open," albeit with testing requirements, are people going to go?  Are they going to risk spending that kind of money only to find themselves in quarantine?


My guess/expectation is that TS owners will be more inclined, hotel/infrequent visitors will not. TS's have kitchens, and are frequent visitors, so they know their way around and can manage nicely even if not everything is open. I don't need to see Pearl Harbor, again. But for those looking for their once-in-a-lifetime trip to Hawaii, now would be a lousy time for that trip! And, of course, there will be plenty that have a rationale fear of going, especially high-risk, 70+ year olds, etc. I'm expecting Hawaii in November to be very quiet compared with normal.


----------



## csodjd

CO skier said:


> Airports Expecting Crowding Problem Even With Travel Demand Still Low
> 
> 
> Social distancing measures will prove to be a challenge.
> 
> 
> 
> www.travelpulse.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *"Right now it might not be an issue, but as the flying public slowly returns to the air, it will become a case of too many people and not enough space. Where once officials were fine with packing in customers like sardines – ticket counters, security checkpoints, seating at the gate – social distancing and the lack of useable space will certainly make things difficult. "*


Take a look at CLEAR if you have it at your airport. I use it all the time. Pretty much eliminates the high-crowd TSA checkin.


----------



## Luanne

I have another question.  I'm just musing, and I might be able to look it up, but hear me out.

On our annual trips to Maui we stop in San Francisco for two nights coming and going.  Would this mean I would have to get the test in San Francisco to be within the 72 hours?  I would think so.  And does the 72 hours count back from the time of take off of your flight?  I've read several of the articles and don't remember this level of detail, but I could have easily missed it.


----------



## Yellowfin

Luanne said:


> I have another question.  I'm just musing, and I might be able to look it up, but hear me out.
> 
> On our annual trips to Maui we stop in San Francisco for two nights coming and going.  Would this mean I would have to get the test in San Francisco to be within the 72 hours?  I would think so.  And does the 72 hours count back from the time of take off of your flight?  I've read several of the articles and don't remember this level of detail, but I could have easily missed it.


Even if you get your answer now, what are the requirements going to be when you actually start your trip? We have a trip with just 1 night stop in SF, I am thinking it might be safer to change the flights so we can get to Hawaii the same day.


----------



## Luanne

Yellowfin said:


> Even if you get your answer now, what are the requirements going to be when you actually start your trip? We have a trip with just 1 night stop in SF, I am thinking it might be safer to change the flights so we can get to Hawaii in the same day.


I have no idea.  As I said I was just musing.  You know, it might affect someone now.


----------



## amy241

Luanne said:


> I have another question.  I'm just musing, and I might be able to look it up, but hear me out.
> 
> On our annual trips to Maui we stop in San Francisco for two nights coming and going.  Would this mean I would have to get the test in San Francisco to be within the 72 hours?  I would think so.  And does the 72 hours count back from the time of take off of your flight?  I've read several of the articles and don't remember this level of detail, but I could have easily missed it.



I would think it would be measured from the time you were actually administered the test.


----------



## amy241

bnoble said:


> We're more concerned about the risk of a (very long) flight. I'm still waiting to see to what extent air travel is/is not a risk. So far, it does not seem like a major means of transmission, but that could be because almost no one has been flying for three months.



I am not sure I would agree that it is not a major means of transmission given all the airline employees that have been testing positive since this started. One example is Delta:









						500 Delta airline staff test positive for coronavirus, 10 dead
					

The airline is looking to have all 90,000 of its employees to be tested.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## Luanne

amy241 said:


> I would think it would be measured from the time you were actually administered the test.


I understand that.  What I meant was, if your flight is at 9 a.m., do you count back 72 from that to determine the time frame in which is must be taken?  Or is it the date you get the results?  Too many questions for me at this point.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Luanne said:


> I have another question.  I'm just musing, and I might be able to look it up, but hear me out.
> 
> On our annual trips to Maui we stop in San Francisco for two nights coming and going.  Would this mean I would have to get the test in San Francisco to be within the 72 hours?  I would think so.  And does the 72 hours count back from the time of take off of your flight?  I've read several of the articles and don't remember this level of detail, but I could have easily missed it.




That sounds right to me,  but assume they publish more details over the next month.  I think they just wanted to get announcement out with a definitive date for reopening.    

Thankfully we live in the bay area, its always a direct flight for us, that eliminates some of the uncertainty...


----------



## Luanne

1Kflyerguy said:


> That sounds right to me,  but assume they publish more details over the next month.  I think they just wanted to get announcement out with a definitive date for reopening.
> 
> Thankfully we live in the bay area, its always a direct flight for us, that eliminates some of the uncertainty...


Ahhh, the days when we could just fly direct. We lived in the Bay Area for years. After we moved we tried a couple of times to fly from Albuquerque to Maui.  We got so screwed up on flights home twice that dh suggested we fly to the Bay Area, stay for a couple of nights, then fly to Maui. This has worked out so well. We get to spend some time in San Francisco, which we love, and we get to spend some time with our dd who lives in Sunnyvale.  It's a win win.


----------



## csodjd

amy241 said:


> I am not sure I would agree that it is not a major means of transmission given all the airline employees that have been testing positive since this started. One example is Delta:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 500 Delta airline staff test positive for coronavirus, 10 dead
> 
> 
> The airline is looking to have all 90,000 of its employees to be tested.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com


An airplane has several qualities consistent with being a good source for transmission. In particular, extended period of time in a moderately contained and relatively small area, in relatively close contact with stationary people. However, mandatory wearing of masks should help considerably.


----------



## controller1

amy241 said:


> I am not sure I would agree that it is not a major means of transmission given all the airline employees that have been testing positive since this started. One example is Delta:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 500 Delta airline staff test positive for coronavirus, 10 dead
> 
> 
> The airline is looking to have all 90,000 of its employees to be tested.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com





csodjd said:


> An airplane has several qualities consistent with being a good source for transmission. In particular, extended period of time in a moderately contained and relatively small area, in relatively close contact with stationary people. However, mandatory wearing of masks should help considerably.



This would be important to know. From the article: *It is unknown whether the infected staff members are cabin crew or ground-level workers . . .*


----------



## Carlsbadguy

I had a test that was supposed to take 2 days to come back but took 4 days to get the results. If you don't do the test where the lab is the test usually does not go out till the next day, so you lose a day. I realized after the fact and could have signed up on the labs website, for me it was Quest, and gotten the results about 12 hours earlier before my doctor called me.


----------



## csodjd

Carlsbadguy said:


> I had a test that was supposed to take 2 days to come back but took 4 days to get the results. If you don't do the test where the lab is the test usually does not go out till the next day, so you lose a day. I realized after the fact and could have signed up on the labs website, for me it was Quest, and gotten the results about 12 hours earlier before my doctor called me.


Quest says on their website that the "Test results are typically available within 3 days, but turnaround time can vary due to high demand. Typically, the quickest way to get your test results is having them sent to you automatically through your secure MyQuest online portal."

I believe/hope that by Aug 1 there will be a means of ensuring a 2-day turnaround or it's going to be pretty testy trying to head off to Hawaii. However, there is a (slightly costly) approach that would make it less risky. You go in about 5 days ahead for a test, and go back 3 days ahead of departure. And you totally quarantine between those two tests. Assuming the first test is negative, the odds are very high so too will be the second, so there is a very low risk that, if you don't have your results yet, you'll land in Hawaii and learn you tested positive and have to quarantine. 

Of course, for a family of 4 that's going to be a bit of a hassle and possibly fairly costly.


----------



## BigDawgTUG

controller1 said:


> If so then why do you believe the wording on the website was changed?
> 
> Also, Hawaii indicates it wants to court visitors from Japan and Australia. Those flights are longer and it will be even more difficult to have results of a test taken no more than 72 hours prior to arrival in Hawaii.



See https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/news/alerts/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/

*STATEWIDE ORDER BY GOVERNOR DAVID IGE: YOU MUST SELF-QUARANTINE FOR 14 DAYS IF YOU ARRIVED IN HAWAII AFTER MARCH 26, 2020
Beginning August 1, Individuals Required To Get Valid COVID-19 Test Within 72 Hours Prior To Trip, and Show Proof of Negative Result, To Avoid 14-Day Quarantine*

See also:  https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...ng-plan-travelers-part-effort-reopen-tourism/

HONOLULU, Hawaii (HawaiiNewsNow) - Starting Aug. 1, travelers who test negative for coronavirus no more than 72 hours before arriving in Hawaii will be able to avoid the state’s mandatory quarantine.

See also:  https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/hawaii-coronavirus-test-traveler-quarantine

A rep for Lige’s office confirmed to _Travel + Leisure_ that specifics as to how long visitors have to take a COVID-19 test before departure, as well as other logistics, are still being worked out and will be announced as Aug. 1 approaches.

So, at this time, everyone seems to have a different understanding, but hopefully clarity will be coming soon.


----------



## CO skier

BigDawgTUG said:


> A rep for Lige’s office confirmed to _Travel + Leisure_ that specifics as to how long visitors have to take a COVID-19 test before departure, as well as other logistics, are still being worked out and will be announced as Aug. 1 approaches.
> 
> So, at this time, everyone seems to have a different understanding, but hopefully clarity will be coming soon.


This clearly shows the policy is an ill-thought-out, knee-jerk reaction in response to getting spanked by the DOJ for the illegal quarantine.  The Hawaii governor wants to continue the isolation policy as much as possible by creating hurdles, while pretending to be "open" .


----------



## lynne

CO skier said:


> This clearly shows the policy is an ill-thought-out, knee-jerk reaction in response to getting spanked by the DOJ for the illegal quarantine.  The Hawaii governor wants to continue the isolation policy as much as possible by creating hurdles, while pretending to be "open" .


https://www.civilbeat.org/beat/judge-feds-cant-intervene-in-quarantine-challenge/


----------



## Tamaradarann

CO skier said:


> This clearly shows the policy is an ill-thought-out, knee-jerk reaction in response to getting spanked by the DOJ for the illegal quarantine.  The Hawaii governor wants to continue the isolation policy as much as possible by creating hurdles, while pretending to be "open" .
> 
> Everyone has been waiting and waiting for an annoucement for when tourists can come to Hawaii WITHOUT a 14 day quarantine so that a NORMAL vacation can be enjoyed.  This is it.
> 
> It is a very reasonable hurdle after they tighten up the testing and result procedure with the pharmacies, which I believe they will, so that after a test 3 days before a flight gets you the results before the flight.  That should mitigate the hurdle while protecting people on the plane and in Hawaii.  Negative Test, NO Quarantine.
> 
> However, if in fact you test Positive for the virus not only should you be quarantined, YOU SHOULDN'T BE GOING AT ALL!!  So that if you get a postive test result you are sick and shouldn't be going so the system would be working to perfection and you won't spread the virus.
> 
> If you don't want to get the test you have 2 choices.  A 14 day quarantine or DON'T GO.


----------



## bnoble

CO skier said:


> This clearly shows the policy is an ill-thought-out, knee-jerk reaction in response to getting spanked by the DOJ for the illegal quarantine.


Except that we’ve been hearing that pre-arrival testing was being worked on for weeks now. Oh and a letter of interest supporting a third party suit is hardly “getting spanked.”


----------



## csodjd

I hope the airlines “play along” and have good policies in the event you do test positive and you had a “non-refundable” ticket. For instance, if they say you must use the ticket within one-year from when you PURCHASED it, as opposed to the scheduled flight, you could be basically screwed if you were irresponsible and planned ahead!


----------



## luv_maui

bnoble said:


> We're more concerned about the risk of a (very long) flight. I'm still waiting to see to what extent air travel is/is not a risk. So far, it does not seem like a major means of transmission, but that could be because almost no one has been flying for three months.


I just saw on the news that American & United will now not block middle seats since their cleaning and air filters.  I do like that delta is continuing to limit seats sold thru currently 9/30/20 and southwest also limiting seats sold.  Currently during this quarantine American & Delta both had direct flights into Maui from LAX, and I’m glad I took delta.  There was maybe 10-12 in coach out of maybe 200 seat.  We paid for comfort plus and guessing no one else did since closest one to us was maybe 10 rows behind us.


----------



## luv_maui

csodjd said:


> I hope the airlines “play along” and have good policies in the event you do test positive and you had a “non-refundable” ticket. For instance, if they say you must use the ticket within one-year from when you PURCHASED it, as opposed to the scheduled flight, you could be basically screwed if you were irresponsible and planned ahead!


agreed!  Considering most flights (except southwest) allow bookings about 11 months in advance.  But unless flying during Holidays or high peak season, I’d think one could wait to book, unless using frequent flyer miles.  I personally think demand for air travel will continue to be weak for the near future and prices airfare won’t be too high although the extra cleaning procedures and lower occupancy will put pressure to raise prices, just like taxes will have to go up with our deficit.


----------



## csodjd

luv_maui said:


> agreed!  Considering most flights (except southwest) allow bookings about 11 months in advance.  But unless flying during Holidays or high peak season, I’d think one could wait to book, unless using frequent flyer miles.  I personally think demand for air travel will continue to be weak for the near future and prices airfare won’t be too high although the extra cleaning procedures and lower occupancy will put pressure to raise prices, just like taxes will have to go up with our deficit.


Demand will surely be low, but the number of flights will also be low. They don't want to fly empty planes. I did just book a couple of flights to Maui Nov 1 and planes were/are pretty empty.


----------



## luv_maui

csodjd said:


> Demand will surely be low, but the number of flights will also be low. They don't want to fly empty planes. I did just book a couple of flights to Maui Nov 1 and planes were/are pretty empty.


We have Return flights booked for each of the next 4 weeks.  return flights have been cancelled and time changed at least 3-4 times.


----------



## JIMinNC

csodjd said:


> Demand will surely be low, but the number of flights will also be low. They don't want to fly empty planes. I did just book a couple of flights to Maui Nov 1 and planes were/are pretty empty.



We just booked CLT-Lihue/Kona-CLT using AAdvantage miles for Jan/Feb 2021. Got them for 40,000 miles each, 80K total, and good flights/times - not the typical horrible routings you have to be willing to accept for the lower "priced" award miles flights. The flights were almost empty as of now. It's anyone's guess what schedules to Hawaii will actually look like then, or what the public health situation will be, but the low mileage requirement was just too attractive to pass on. I've never seen it that cheap. We'll see what happens.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> We just booked CLT-Lihue/Kona-CLT using AAdvantage miles for Jan/Feb 2021. Got them for 40,000 miles each, 80K total, and good flights/times - not the typical horrible routings you have to be willing to accept for the lower "priced" award miles flights. The flights were almost empty as of now. It's anyone's guess what schedules to Hawaii will actually look like then, or what the public health situation will be, but the low mileage requirement was just too attractive to pass on. I've never seen it that cheap. We'll see what happens.


I just booked LAX-OGG for my kids on Hawaiian, 17,500 miles one way each, and return on AA for 20,000, Nov 1 and Nov. 9.


----------



## TXTortoise

Just walking through the testing timeline For a San Antonio Maui trip, and realized how tight the window is.  Can’t imagine being on the east coast or doing an overnight in California. Almost better to fly to CA and do test there over two days.

Sat Arrive Maui 2PM; 7PM San Antonio (+5 hrs)
Fri 7PM SAT    -24 hrs
Thu 7PM SAT  -48 hrs
Wed 7PM SAT -72 hrs

This suggests you’d most likely get tested Thu morning and need your results by Friday, or risk arriving Saturday, not knowing your results until you land, at best. 

A 72 duration calculator across time zones is going to be real useful.


----------



## csodjd

TXTortoise said:


> Just walking through the testing timeline For a San Antonio Maui trip, and realized how tight the window is.  Can’t imagine being on the east coast or doing an overnight in California. Almost better to fly to CA and do test there over two days.
> 
> Sat Arrive Maui 2PM; 7PM San Antonio (+5 hrs)
> Fri 7PM SAT    -24 hrs
> Thu 7PM SAT  -48 hrs
> Wed 7PM SAT -72 hrs
> 
> This suggests you’d most likely get tested Thu morning and need your results by Friday, or risk arriving Saturday, not knowing your results until you land, at best.
> 
> A 72 duration calculator across time zones is going to be real useful.


It's probably premature to guess at how this will really work. And 72 hours before what? Checking in for your flight? Departing? Landing? Assuming it is checking in, if you have a flight leaving LAX at 8:00am on Friday, assuming checking in at 6:00am, 72 hours back would be 6:00 a.m. Tuesday. So you get tested first thing Tuesday morning and hope you have your results by Thursday evening.  

So you'd want to get tested in this example in San Antonio on Tuesday morning, and plan/hope to fly to LA on Thursday evening, then to Hawaii on Friday morning.


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> It's probably premature to guess at how this will really work. And 72 hours before what? Checking in for your flight? Departing? Landing? Assuming it is checking in, if you have a flight leaving LAX at 8:00am on Friday, assuming checking in at 6:00am, 72 hours back would be 6:00 a.m. Tuesday. So you get tested first thing Tuesday morning and hope you have your results by Thursday evening.
> 
> So you'd want to get tested in this example in San Antonio on Tuesday morning, and plan/hope to fly to LA on Thursday evening, then to Hawaii on Friday morning.


The whole thing just sounds too risky, for me, at this point.  Of course for us it's a moot point since we aren't planning on doing any travel this year.  But we're taking a "wait and see" attitude about trying to plan a trip to Maui for March 2021.


----------



## Carlsbadguy

The cost with Quest was $100 for the test which my insurance did cover fully.


----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> The whole thing just sounds too risky, for me, at this point.  Of course for us it's a moot point since we aren't planning on doing any travel this year.  But we're taking a "wait and see" attitude about trying to plan a trip to Maui for March 2021.


Well, we're curious how it will work out. We're scheduled to fly on Oct. 26 to Oahu in the morning. That's a Monday. That means we'd need to test on Friday, and get results over the weekend. If tested on Friday, we'd need results Sunday some time or earlier. Is that possible? Don't know. Hopefully the fog will lift over the next couple of months and things will become more clear.


----------



## csodjd

Carlsbadguy said:


> The cost with Quest was $100 for the test which my insurance did cover fully.


Did you have symptoms or risk? I wonder if insurance covers a test taken because you need it for a vacation? Hardly seems "medically necessary."


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> Well, we're curious how it will work out. We're scheduled to fly on Oct. 26 to Oahu in the morning. That's a Monday. That means we'd need to test on Friday, and get results over the weekend. If tested on Friday, we'd need results Sunday some time or earlier. Is that possible? Don't know. Hopefully the fog will lift over the next couple of months and things will become more clear.


You'd better hope the labs work over the weekends.


----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> You'd better hope the labs work over the weekends.


Well I do know that Quest does work 24x7. Reporting results though, that I'm not sure about. I had the opportunity to try a case against Quest a few years back. Deposing the head of their Western US lab operations, their regional VP, and head of their clinical medicine, and the head of their West Hills, CA lab, among others, gave me a lot of insight into how their lab operates. For those providers using their "360" software, they get results ASAP. But the MyQuest app wasn't part of the litigation.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Well I do know that Quest does work 24x7. Reporting results though, that I'm not sure about. I had the opportunity to try a case against Quest a few years back. Deposing the head of their Western US lab operations, their regional VP, and head of their clinical medicine, and the head of their West Hills, CA lab, among others, gave me a lot of insight into how their lab operates. For those providers using their "360" software, they get results ASAP. But the MyQuest app wasn't part of the litigation.



We are booked on Sunday November 8th.  We are planning on using CVS.  I know the pharmacy works everyday.  As long as the test can get the results back quickly it shouldn't be a problem.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> We are booked on Sunday November 8th.  We are planning on using CVS.  I know the pharmacy works everyday.  As long as the test can get the results back quickly it shouldn't be a problem.


CVS doesn't do their own lab work. They send it out to independent labs. Likely to Quest or LabCorp, but could be others. The real savior will be if the Abbott ID Now test comes into widespread use and proves itself as reliable (it has had some reports of high false negatives). It provides a positive within about 5 min and a negative in about 15.


----------



## Luanne

Tamaradarann said:


> We are booked on Sunday November 8th.  We are planning on using CVS.  I know the pharmacy works everyday.  As long as the test can get the results back quickly it shouldn't be a problem.


My friend had her test done at a CVS Minute Clinic.  She was told 2 to 4 days.  Took closer to 6.


----------



## Bill4728

I work in a medical lab and last week covid virus testing was taking a day.  (sample Monday, test results Tuesday)

BUT suddenly the volume of tests exploded and the day turn around became 5 days almost overnight.

Since Hawaii id saying a negative test within 3 days, a five day test doesn't work.

Sorry

PS  I wonder if you got sampled two days before your flight and got the results two day after arriving if that would work?  A lot better than 14 days in quarantine.


----------



## amycurl

In NC, the testing criteria is fairly broad, including anyone that attended a protest, and if you are a member of a group more likely to have a negative outcome from COVID (basically, if you are over 55, overweight, BIPOC, low-income and/or from another marginalized group.) So, even for the CVS tests, even if you are asymptomatic, you should qualify to get tested. (At least in our state.)

We're hoping to get tested in order to travel to Maine at the end of the July, most likely accompanying my mother who tested negative last week before a surgery on Friday (she's been in our "bubble" for about a month, so that's good news for all of us still being negative.) As for criteria, we can now all check one of those boxes. However, the CVS site everyone has to be 18 to be tested?!? Not sure how to get around that. Maybe we'll need to go through Quest.


----------



## Carlsbadguy

The testing criteria in Ca is pretty broad.  I was tested because I went to my doctor for a regular appointment and had a fever when the nurse checked my temperature in my hot car before entering the office.   Certain states like Arizona and Florida do have narrow testing criteria along with long waits for appointments.


----------



## controller1

The testing criteria in Louisiana is also pretty broad. Some testing sites require COVID-19 symptoms, some do not. Some testing sites require an appointment, some do not. Some testing sites require a physician's referral, some do not.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Luanne said:


> My friend had her test done at a CVS Minute Clinic.  She was told 2 to 4 days.  Took closer to 6.



Well since there is supposed to be a special deal with Hawaii and CVS perhaps they will guarantee an immediate turn around.  If it is going to be a delayed results situation we will skip this year and wait for a better situation in the future.  I believe unless they get testing and results timely Hawaii is going to still have a lack of tourist dollars and be in a economic crisis.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Well since there is supposed to be a special deal with Hawaii and CVS perhaps they will guarantee an immediate turn around.  If it is going to be a delayed results situation we will skip this year and wait for a better situation in the future.  I believe unless they get testing and results timely Hawaii is going to still have a lack of tourist dollars and be in a economic crisis.


We'll see how things are operating come mid-October, which will hopefully be a lot further along than today. But we're also prepared to self-quarantine at home for a week or so before the testing, almost assuring a negative result, and even if we don't have the results when we depart, we can self-quarantine in Hawaii for a day while waiting for the results. But I do expect CVS will work with Hawaii and ensure 2-day results.


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> We'll see how things are operating come mid-October, which will hopefully be a lot further along than today. But we're also prepared to self-quarantine at home for a week or so before the testing, almost assuring a negative result, and even if we don't have the results when we depart, we can self-quarantine in Hawaii for a day while waiting for the results. But I do expect CVS will work with Hawaii and ensure 2-day results.


I believe it is only at CVS Minute Clinics.  And for people who don't have one near by, I guess they may be out of luck.


----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> I believe it is only at CVS Minute Clinics.  And for people who don't have one near by, I guess they may be out of luck.


A key may be doing a bit of homework by contacting the clinic (or different clinics) and finding out what time their lab picks up their specimens so you can get your sample prior to the earliest/first pickup of the day.


----------



## luv_maui

Luanne said:


> The whole thing just sounds too risky, for me, at this point.  Of course for us it's a moot point since we aren't planning on doing any travel this year.  But we're taking a "wait and see" attitude about trying to plan a trip to Maui for March 2021.


Agreed.  The only way it works imho is if the test Results is guaranteed 1-2 days, but still not confident the deal with CVS will get done considering the pandemic is starting to surge and testing is needed for really medical reasons


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> A key may be doing a bit of homework by contacting the clinic (or different clinics) and finding out what time their lab picks up their specimens so you can get your sample prior to the earliest/first pickup of the day.


I am NOT familiar with CVS minute clinics.  We have a regular CVS right down the block where we get our Flu, Pneumonia, Shingles vaccines.  I don't know why they wouldn't be doing the virus test if CVS has the agreement deal.


----------



## Tamaradarann

luv_maui said:


> Agreed.  The only way it works imho is if the test Results is guaranteed 1-2 days, but still not confident the deal with CVS will get done considering the pandemic is starting to surge and testing is needed for really medical reasons



Your post brings up a good point and has implications on the statistics.  Who is to be tested and what are the implications for interpretation of the results for the progress of the pandemic.  At first there were very few test kits so they only tested people with symptoms.  That gave a high chance of getting a positive test result.  After that they started to test people who were in close contact with people without PPE's and distancing who came down with the virus.  Since as we know the virus is very contaigious that also gave a high chance of getting a positive test.  

When test kits became more plentiful they started to test people routinely who wanted to be tested or were in certain capacities without a high chance of being infected.  The news kept saying we need to test MORE tests.  However, the more you test people who do not have symptoms or have not been in close contact with people with the virus the lower your chance of getting a positive test result and the lower the percentage of positives in the tests of the population statistics.   That is putting a different finger on the scale.  

Now this comment is intentionally Hawaii centric since that is the title of this thread.  Unless the virus gets totally out of control in the entire US, I don't think there will be so many medically suspected cases that they will not have sufficient test kits at CVS to test those that are FLYING TO HAWAII.  I Intentionally emhasized HAWAII since there will not be enough testing capacity to test all people flying.  While I acknowledge that this is HAWAII centric Hawaii is the only state that can be isolated since you need to fly there.  It is folly to try to contain the virus spread by testing people flying within the continental United States since you can get there by train, bus or car so easily.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Your post brings up a good point and has implications on the statistics.  Who is to be tested and what are the implications for interpretation of the results for the progress of the pandemic.  At first there were very few test kits so they only tested people with symptoms.  That gave a high chance of getting a positive test result.  After that they started to test people who were in close contact with people without PPE's and distancing who came down with the virus.  Since as we know the virus is very contaigious that also gave a high chance of getting a positive test.
> 
> When test kits became more plentiful they started to test people routinely who wanted to be tested or were in certain capacities without a high chance of being infected.  The news kept saying we need to test MORE tests.  However, the more you test people who do not have symptoms or have not been in close contact with people with the virus the lower your chance of getting a positive test result and the lower the percentage of positives in the tests of the population statistics.   That is putting a different finger on the scale.
> 
> Now this comment is intentionally Hawaii centric since that is the title of this thread.  Unless the virus gets totally out of control in the entire US, I don't think there will be so many medically suspected cases that they will not have sufficient test kits at CVS to test those that are FLYING TO HAWAII.  I Intentionally emhasized HAWAII since there will not be enough testing capacity to test all people flying.  While I acknowledge that this is HAWAII centric Hawaii is the only state that can be isolated since you need to fly there.  It is folly to try to contain the virus spread by testing people flying within the continental United States since you can get there by train, bus or car so easily.


Broadly speaking, you test for two distinct non-overlapping reasons. One is clinically... person has symptoms and you want to know what is wrong with them to guide treatment. The other is epidemiologically... you are testing randomly in the community to identify and contain spread. (Surveillance testing.) The calls for “more testing” are directed at the later.


----------



## Luanne

Tamaradarann said:


> I am NOT familiar with CVS minute clinics.  We have a regular CVS right down the block where we get our Flu, Pneumonia, Shingles vaccines.  I don't know why they wouldn't be doing the virus test if CVS has the agreement deal.


There was a link provided several days ago. That specifically said CVS Minute Clinics. The CVS I use, which is a regular one, has a big sign saying they do NO testing.  There is at least on Minute Clinic in town.  I haven't used it but I know my bil got his shingles shots there, another friend was tested for COVID 19 and I "think" they can diagnose some simple ailments.  But don't take my word, look it up.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Luanne said:


> I believe it is only at CVS Minute Clinics.  And for people who don't have one near by, I guess they may be out of luck.



One of the press releases, of statements by the HI Government indicated they were working on adding additional partners.  We have quite a few CVS near use, but i am not sure if any of them have the minute clinics.   Hopefully they will strike a deal with one or more of the big lab companies as well, like Quest or LabCorp.  would be good to increase the options..


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Broadly speaking, you test for two distinct non-overlapping reasons. One is clinically... person has symptoms and you want to know what is wrong with them to guide treatment. The other is epidemiologically... you are testing randomly in the community to identify and contain spread. (Surveillance testing.) The calls for “more testing” are directed at the later.



Acknowledging that the the more random testing helps identify and contain the spread, it does lower the percentage positives.  Furthermore, unlike the testing for real medical reasons that effort shouldn't prevent the redirection of available test kits to test all the people before they travel to Hawaii.


----------



## rfc0001

Tamaradarann said:


> We are booked on Sunday November 8th.  We are planning on using CVS.  I know the pharmacy works everyday.  As long as the test can get the results back quickly it shouldn't be a problem.


I got a test through CVS and took a full 4 days, so you will have to take the test 3 days prior to departure, and still may not find out results until you arrive.


----------



## rfc0001

HGVC Waikoloa resorts (except Ocean Tower) have availability starting July 16 to book now.  Obviously prior to quarantine exception so will have to stay at resort.  Likely just a soft opening to get staff back up and running given they are already paid for by maintenance fees.


----------



## TXTortoise

rfc0001 said:


> HGVC Waikoloa resorts (except Ocean Tower) have availability starting July 16 to book now.  Obviously prior to quarantine exception so will have to stay at resort.  Likely just a soft opening to get staff back up and running given they are already paid for by maintenance fees.



Not just stay at the resort, but go directly from the airport to your room and not step outside for 14 days.   OF might work, as someone did on Maui this past three weeks. They've been free for a week. ;-)


----------



## rfc0001

TXTortoise said:


> Not just stay at the resort, but go directly from the airport to your room and not step outside for 14 days.   OF might work, as someone did on Maui this past three weeks. They've been free for a week. ;-)


Locals can stay as well


----------



## luv_maui

TXTortoise said:


> Not just stay at the resort, but go directly from the airport to your room and not step outside for 14 days.   OF might work, as someone did on Maui this past three weeks. They've been free for a week. ;-)


Absolutely correct.  Under 14 day quarantine cannot rent car, can’t stop for groceries, just go directly to your room and check in online for 14 days straight starting day after arrival.  Even renting a car was difficult since no email with documented proof quarantine was completed.  I had to call hawaii covid-19 hotline and have police officer verify there was no prof from them, but provided copy of app showing my arrival date.  The App does say you have completed quarantine but only as a message if you try to check-in online again after completing quarantine.  What if I hadn’t tried to check in again out of curiosity, I would have no proof quarantine completed.  Hypothetically speaking only, What’s stopping me from going home and flying back in a month and use my old boarding pass and app message stating I’ve completed my quarantine?  I personally wouldn’t chance it, but could see others that come try to cheat the system


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Acknowledging that the the more random testing helps identify and contain the spread, it does lower the percentage positives.


It doesn't "lower" the percentage positives, it helps accurately determine the percentage of positives in the community. Testing based on symptoms produces an inflated positive percentage. If you want to know if it is spreading in the community you need to test randomly. 

The best tool for looking at the crystal ball remains https://rt.live/ in my opinion. It will show where the big increases will be occurring in 1-2 weeks. Unfortunately, right now it's a really large list of states. Nv, Fl, and Ok being the worst. But really, everything from Ohio on is bad. These are R values well above 1.0, meaning each infected person is infecting more than 1 other person.


----------



## DannyTS

For those who have been tested, how did you get the results? By email? Hawaii is concerned about people showing up with fake emails, this is why they want to have a separate database where CVS can upload the results. Is this going to work smoothly? It is going to require additional administration and possible system and human errors on both sides. How fast will the airport officials going to be able to access it without creating long lines? I hope they will make it work.


----------



## Luanne

DannyTS said:


> For those who have been tested, how did you get the results? By email? Hawaii is concerned about people showing up with fake emails, this is why they want to have a separate database where CVS can upload the results. Is this going to work smoothly? It is going to require additional administration and possible system and human errors on both sides. How fast will the airport officials going to be able to access it without creating long lines? I hope they will make it work.


CVS Minute Clinic says results are by email.


----------



## rfc0001

Luanne said:


> CVS Minute Clinic says results are by email.


You get results from MyChart (mychart.minuteclinic.com).  You are sent registration link when you sign up for test, and must register within 24 hours.  If you register for MyChart, you'll get an email notification from MyChart.


----------



## rfc0001

rfc0001 said:


> HGVC Waikoloa resorts (except Ocean Tower) have availability starting July 16 to book now.  Obviously prior to quarantine exception so will have to stay at resort.  Likely just a soft opening to get staff back up and running given they are already paid for by maintenance fees.


HGVC Hokulani Waikiki on Oahu also is opening July 16.


----------



## MommaBear

csodjd said:


> It doesn't "lower" the percentage positives, it helps accurately determine the percentage of positives in the community. Testing based on symptoms produces an inflated positive percentage. If you want to know if it is spreading in the community you need to test randomly.
> 
> The best tool for looking at the crystal ball remains https://rt.live/ in my opinion. It will show where the big increases will be occurring in 1-2 weeks. Unfortunately, right now it's a really large list of states. Nv, Fl, and Ok being the worst. But really, everything from Ohio on is bad. These are R values well above 1.0, meaning each infected person is infecting more than 1 other person.
> 
> View attachment 22696


Yesterday the most recent R0 I could find was 4.7, which means herd immunity needs to be at 87% immune to disease. The R0, and CFR (case fatality rate) will continue to change over time with increased data.


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> For those who have been tested, how did you get the results? By email? Hawaii is concerned about people showing up with fake emails, this is why they want to have a separate database where CVS can upload the results. Is this going to work smoothly? It is going to require additional administration and possible system and human errors on both sides. How fast will the airport officials going to be able to access it without creating long lines? I hope they will make it work.


I'd imagine supplying a false test result would be a felony. I'd like to think that people would not be inclined to commit an easily provable felony just to vacation in Hawaii. I suspect the resulting "quarantine" will be for much more than 14 days if you get caught.


----------



## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> I'd imagine supplying a false test result would be a felony. I'd like to think that people would not be inclined to commit an easily provable felony just to vacation in Hawaii. I suspect the resulting "quarantine" will be for much more than 14 days if you get caught.


I agree with you, I was just repeating what the governor said, they are clearly concerned. If they do not accept the results provided by visitors by email, I do not see how people who come from other countries (like Canada) will be able to travel since they will not be part of that database.


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> I agree with you, I was just repeating what the governor said, they are clearly concerned. If they do not accept the results provided by visitors by email, I do not see how people who come from other countries (like Canada) will be able to travel since they will not be part of that database.


I view it a bit like high school or college transcripts. As long as the email comes from or is forwarded from the testing entity or lab, and not from the traveler him/herself, the reliability should be a lot higher.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> It doesn't "lower" the percentage positives, it helps accurately determine the percentage of positives in the community. Testing based on symptoms produces an inflated positive percentage. If you want to know if it is spreading in the community you need to test randomly.
> 
> The best tool for looking at the crystal ball remains https://rt.live/ in my opinion. It will show where the big increases will be occurring in 1-2 weeks. Unfortunately, right now it's a really large list of states. Nv, Fl, and Ok being the worst. But really, everything from Ohio on is bad. These are R values well above 1.0, meaning each infected person is infecting more than 1 other person.
> 
> View attachment 22696
> I get that it random testing gives an accurate view of the percentage positives.  However, for the TUG timeshare travelers to Hawaii we want to be safe going there, being there, and not having to endure a 14 day quarartine.  My focus here is responding to a earlier comment made by someone that there was not sufficent tests kits to pre-test all people before the flights to Hawaii.  While I understand and totally agree with testing those with symptoms to enable appropriate medical treatment, I can't agree with random testing rather than pre-testing those that will be flying to Hawaii.  That is my priority and I believe others here that will be going to Hawaii.


----------



## csodjd

There's been much talk here about testing 3d before, and is there time to get the results before departing. But I noticed today in the new story they used this language, "The tests must be completed no more than 72 hours before coming to the islands." The key word there is, "completed." What does it mean to have the test "completed?" Does that mean you must have the RESULTS in hand within 72 hours? If so, that would mean you can be tested 5 or so days before departure.


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> There's been much talk here about testing 3d before, and is there time to get the results before departing. But I noticed today in the new story they used this language, "The tests must be completed no more than 72 hours before coming to the islands." The key word there is, "completed." What does it mean to have the test "completed?" Does that mean you must have the RESULTS in hand within 72 hours? If so, that would mean you can be tested 5 or so days before departure.


It sounds like there are all kinds of questions still out there.  I'd sure want a very definite answer, and policy, before I headed to Hawaii.  But again, this is a moot point for me and my family.


----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> It sounds like there are all kinds of questions still out there.  I'd sure want a very definite answer, and policy, before I headed to Hawaii.  But again, this is a moot point for me and my family.


I expect we'll all have those answers before Aug 1, but for those wanting to push the envelope and depart ON Aug 1, well, they're just going to have to make their best guesses. By Sept 1 the kinks will be worked out and the rules ought to be pretty clear.


----------



## luv_maui

Got this email from a backup reservation at Marriott Wailea, I changed my name and reservation number.  Most notably, they indicate an estimate on a COVID-19 test for approximately $160.

hopefully governor of hawaii will have more details soon, assuming they can actually execute this plan where it works.  But with COVID-19 spreading, I’m not as confident coming back in September.  The devil is in the details and actual execution, assuming they can really make it work effectively.  Too many issues of getting a test and getting results back in time, at least as many of us have speculated.  Time will tell on the details, and I’d have to believe those details have to be announced soon (1-2 weeks?) and certainly not 7/31/20.




> *From:* "Vento, Angela" <Angela.Vento@waileabeachresort.com>
> *Date:* June 29, 2020 at 7:24:33 PM HST
> *To:* "Luv_maui”
> *Subject:* *Confirming your upcoming reservation at Wailea Beach Resort, Maui*
> 
> 
> 
> Aloha luv_maui,
> 
> I am personally writing to confirm reservation number  Xxxxxxxx arriving Wailea Beach Resort on 9/xx//2020. Our ‘Ohana of associates is busypreparing to serve you. We are prioritizing ourcomprehensive cleanliness environment, providingflexible touchless services, leaning into digital guestcommunication and most importantly creatingunforgettable memories for you! We will have our robust programming and much for you to enjoy.
> 
> We ask that you email the status of your reservation so that records are accurate. Stacy Morataya-Pilkington, Resident Manager, is available to assist you with any immediate needs as I will be out of the office from July 1 to July 6. Her email is Stacy.Pilkington@WaileaBeachResort.com. Also,*please know that on July 6, 2020, our cancellation policy returns to 21 days prior to arrival.*
> 
> The State of Hawaii has made some recent announcements regarding welcoming travelers backto the islands. We are here to support and assistyou with sharing information regarding the 72-hourpretesting option prior to your arrival that allows you to forego the quarantine. We have been advised it isapproximately $160 per test. Please use thefollowing Hawaii Tourism Authority Website as agreat resource with the latest news.
> 
> Now, more than ever, our team is reminded of thereason why we entered the hospitality industry wasbecause of engaging with guests like yourself,whom we have the honor of serving. Please take aminute and be swept away virtually with “Until WeMeet Again”. We will be meeting very soon and youhave our full commitment to making your trip once-in-a-lifetime.
> 
> 
> 
> If we can be of any additional service, please let usknow. We look forward to sharing our aloha withyou very soon!
> 
> 
> At Your Service,
> Wailea Beach Resort Team
> _Renew Yourself In An Ocean of Possibilities. TheWater Awaits.
> _
> RESOURCES
> Review the following sites to consider timing of testing, procedures at arrival, quarantine implications,results of not abiding by quarantine.
> https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/ https://portal.ehawaii.gov/ https://www.gohawaii.com/special-alerts-information
Click to expand...


----------



## csodjd

Maybe this will help the testing problems:









						A Honolulu company is working overtime to develop an easy, cheap COVID-19 ‘spit test’
					

They say it’s a game changer that could be ready by the fall.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## luv_maui

Walked to whaler’s Village.  Roundtrip I passed one person coming back.

Whalers village open, limited hours:
Upper level: Lululemon, Oakley, Malibu shirts, jewelry - Rolex,
Sephora, Tommy Bahama, sunglass hut,

Lower level: Ripcurl, pacsun, volcom, flipflop,



when has tugger ever seen a timeshare booth empty?


----------



## luv_maui

csodjd said:


> Maybe this will help the testing problems:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Honolulu company is working overtime to develop an easy, cheap COVID-19 ‘spit test’
> 
> 
> They say it’s a game changer that could be ready by the fall.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com


Lots of possibilities for testing.  The NBA can test their players to restart the season, so testing certainly appears available for Non-required uses.  But what will be the details by Hawaii governor and when will it be announced?  Can test results be guaranteed prior to departure of one’s flight?  That would be incredible if a 5 minute reliable test were available.


----------



## csodjd

luv_maui said:


> Lots of possibilities for testing.  The NBA can test their players to restart the season, so testing certainly appears available for Non-required uses.  But what will be the details by Hawaii governor and when will it be announced?  Can test results be guaranteed prior to departure of one’s flight?  That would be incredible if a 5 minute reliable test were available.


Of course, the NBA is utilizing their own on-site lab! Same with the PGA Tour. Not a luxury Hawaii or an airline can offer.


----------



## JIMinNC

I saw someone post yesterday on one of the Marriott Facebook pages that the Hawaii LtGovernor said they may decide not to open up to US mainland arrivals on August 1 after all if cases keep spiking on the mainland as they are - even with testing.


----------



## Luanne

JIMinNC said:


> I saw someone post yesterday on one of the Marriott Facebook pages that the Hawaii LtGovernor said they may decide not to open up to US mainland arrivals on August 1 after all if cases keep spiking on the mainland as they are - even with testing.


It would be nice for those who may be planning to go to Hawaii to know for sure.  All of the uncertainty would drive me nuts.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> I saw someone post yesterday on one of the Marriott Facebook pages that the Hawaii LtGovernor said they may decide not to open up to US mainland arrivals on August 1 after all if cases keep spiking on the mainland as they are - even with testing.


I understand that, however, with a testing requirement before coming over, it really doesn't matter how many cases there are, does it? That said, we are spiking like crazy, to be sure, but the reintroduction of restrictions like closing bars, and requiring masks, etc., will start having an impact and those numbers will start coming down in mid-July.


----------



## csodjd

csodjd said:


> I understand that, however, with a testing requirement before coming over, it really doesn't matter how many cases there are, does it? That said, we are spiking like crazy, to be sure, but the reintroduction of restrictions like closing bars, and requiring masks, etc., will start having an impact and those numbers will start coming down in mid-July.


Never mind. I underestimated the degree of stupidity in this country. We're all screwed. If I was Gov of Hawaii, I wouldn't let any Americans in. 









						Texas Republicans to host in-person convention despite coronavirus surge
					

The committee voted 40 to 20 to host the meeting that about 6,000 people are expected to attend in Houston's George R. Brown convention center in just over two weeks.  During a lengthy virtual meeting, those opposed to hosting the convention in person said it would endanger older delegates and...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Ralph Sir Edward

Mainlanders, not Amercans. Hawaii residents are Americans, too.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

According to the this article at least, it seems people are not rushing to book trips to Hawaii.  The premise is that lack of clarity about the testing process is causing confusion...









						Lack of clear vision for pre-arrival testing program is hindering Hawaii’s tourism reopening
					

The clock is already ticking on the 30-day countdown to reopen Hawaii to visitors, but so far there’s not a playbook in sight.




					www.staradvertiser.com
				




I am sure this is a complicated thing to workout, without much precedent to draw on.  But have been surprised how slow the state seems to moving on this, and how mixed their messages have been.


----------



## csodjd

1Kflyerguy said:


> According to the this article at least, it seems people are not rushing to book trips to Hawaii.  The premise is that lack of clarity about the testing process is causing confusion...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lack of clear vision for pre-arrival testing program is hindering Hawaii’s tourism reopening
> 
> 
> The clock is already ticking on the 30-day countdown to reopen Hawaii to visitors, but so far there’s not a playbook in sight.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am sure this is a complicated thing to workout, without much precedent to draw on.  But have been surprised how slow the state seems to moving on this, and how mixed their messages have been.


It's being very aggressive, or risk-taking, to plan to be on the first flight over on Aug 1. In the best world, there will be kinks to work out.


----------



## TravelTime

Ige says spike in new COVID-19 infections is manageable, but warns that could change









						Ige speaks with mayors after Hawaii sees alarming spike in new COVID-19 cases
					

There were 41 new COVID-19 cases reported Tuesday, a record high for Hawaii.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## DavidnRobin

Looks as if they may take my 5-day recommendation (for Covid testing prior to arrival) over a 3-day period. Looks like Gov. Ige may be reading my emails after all!

Factually - I have 10 days to decide if I will acquire yet another 176, 700 unrestricted StarOptions (for a total of 368,100 SOs) as we have Sept19-Oct3 booked at WKORV (our 1Bd OFD and 1Bd from WKV SOs). Or, take my chance on them being restricted? Or going?

What does a 14-day quarantine entail?
Can we go to store to by food?
Can we go to beach outside of WKORV/N as long as we stay to ourselves?
Or is it no leaving villa for 14 days for any reason other than to/from OGG - and only allowed room service?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Luanne

DavidnRobin said:


> Looks as if they may take my 5-day recommendation (for Covid testing prior to arrival) over a 3-day period. Looks like Gov. Ige may be reading my emails after all!
> 
> Factually - I have 10 days to decide if I will acquire yet another 176, 700 unrestricted StarOptions (for a total of 368,100 SOs) as we have Sept19-Oct3 booked at WKORV (our 1Bd OFD and 1Bd from WKV SOs). Or, take my chance on them being restricted? Or going?
> 
> What does a 14-day quarantine entail?
> Can we go to store to by food?
> Can we go to beach outside of WKORV/N as long as we stay to ourselves?
> Or is it no leaving villa for 14 days for any reason other than to/from OGG - and only allowed room service?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Quarantine means quarantine.  No going out for any reason other than a medical emergency.  @luv_maui described this in their 14 day quarantine.


----------



## controller1

DavidnRobin said:


> Looks as if they may take my 5-day recommendation (for Covid testing prior to arrival) over a 3-day period. Looks like Gov. Ige may be reading my emails after all!
> 
> Factually - I have 10 days to decide if I will acquire yet another 176, 700 unrestricted StarOptions (for a total of 368,100 SOs) as we have Sept19-Oct3 booked at WKORV (our 1Bd OFD and 1Bd from WKV SOs). Or, take my chance on them being restricted? Or going?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



David - We're in the same decisional situation. We are scheduled to arrive WKORVN six days after you for a two-week stay.


----------



## JanT

TUGGER luv_maui went through the 14-day quarantine recently.  I believe the answers to your questions are:

You go directly from the airport to your accommodations - no stops.  You get to your unit and that is where you stay for 14 days - literally.  You need to arrange to have food, etc. delivered to your room.  No going to the beach.  In the unit for 14 days straight.  Room keys are being issued for one time use which means you get it to enter your unit and it won't work again if you go out and try to get back in.  You have to check in with authorities every day and certify you are not sick, etc.  You can look at his thread if you want more info. 



DavidnRobin said:


> What does a 14-day quarantine entail?
> Can we go to store to by food?
> Can we go to beach outside of WKORV/N as long as we stay to ourselves?
> Or is it no leaving villa for 14 days for any reason other than to/from OGG - and only allowed room service?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Luanne

JanT said:


> TUGGER luv_maui went through the 14-day quarantine recently.  I believe the answers to your questions are:
> 
> You go directly from the airport to your accommodations - no stops.  You get to your unit and that is where you stay for 14 days - literally.  You need to arrange to have food, etc. delivered to your room.  No going to the beach.  In the unit for 14 days straight.  Room keys are being issued for one time use which means you get it to enter your unit and it won't work again if you go out and try to get back in.  You have to check in with authorities every day and certify you are not sick, etc.  You can look at his thread if you want more info.


In addition they weren't allowed to rent a car so they had to plan for transport to the hotel.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

DavidnRobin said:


> Looks as if they may take my 5-day recommendation (for Covid testing prior to arrival) over a 3-day period. Looks like Gov. Ige may be reading my emails after all!



Was there some official comment or discussion from the governor about moving to a 5 day window for testing?


----------



## klpca

1Kflyerguy said:


> Was there some official comment or discussion from the governor about moving to a 5 day window for testing?


I saw a thread on TripAdvisor yesterday discussing a press conference by the governor, that was broadcast on Facebook. I'll try to find the link when I get home.


----------



## luv_maui

DavidnRobin said:


> Looks as if they may take my 5-day recommendation (for Covid testing prior to arrival) over a 3-day period. Looks like Gov. Ige may be reading my emails after all!
> 
> Factually - I have 10 days to decide if I will acquire yet another 176, 700 unrestricted StarOptions (for a total of 368,100 SOs) as we have Sept19-Oct3 booked at WKORV (our 1Bd OFD and 1Bd from WKV SOs). Or, take my chance on them being restricted? Or going?
> 
> What does a 14-day quarantine entail?
> Can we go to store to by food?
> Can we go to beach outside of WKORV/N as long as we stay to ourselves?
> Or is it no leaving villa for 14 days for any reason other than to/from OGG - and only allowed room service?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Yes, quarantine means only your room, not even out in the hallway.  Your latter comment - no leaving villa for 14 days for any reason other than for medical reasons.  I suppose you’d have to leave the room if there was a fire alarm.  Unless I had an acceptable negative COVID-19 test in hand before I got on the plane I won’t come back, based on 14 day quarantine in place.  We are debating on cancelling our 10 day stay mid Sept., 3 nights hotel + 7 at WKORVN, even if weren’t quarantined, because so much is closed.  

Quarantine means having groceries delivered or meals delivered.  No housekeeping entire 14 days unless Westin is different than Marriott’s policy.  Online Safeway didn’t deliver to Marriott for whatever reason and DoorDash had very little options.  Better meal delivery food options is thru 808Pickups app, but with Higher priced items, delivery charge, tax and tip on top.  We did not try 808 pickups, but had a personal delivery service pick us up groceries at Costco & Safeway. Most places allow her service to put groceries in your fridge so just waiting for you on entry yo your room/villa, but Marriott Maui (Exception) didn’t allow it.   Uber might have worked from airport to resort but we packed a lot with 4 suitcases to assist with quarantine, so also used a personal driver with a town car.  Good luck with your decision.  Restricted options vs non-restricted, but it’s certainly unclear how much may or may not be open.  I’d guess more will be open IF avoiding 14-day quarantine with negative COVID-19 really does take place but no news / details for about 2 weeks since the announcement to allow avoidance of 14 day quarantine with negative COVID-19 test.  Can you really get a covid 19 test for vacation reason with limited testing available?  Will you get results in time?  What about that possible false positive?  Lots of unanswered questions and risks.  I certainly wouldn’t risk it with your valuable 14 night stay unless you are confident of getting your negative COVID-19 results in time, willing to have limited activities available and limited restaurants.  A lot can change in next 2 months but online availability of interval International inventory indicates otherwise.  Best of luck on your hard decision.


----------



## luv_maui

Seriously, MM1  2-br available for 8/1/20 check-in Right now, online just sitting there In II inventory.  This shows how much confidence people feel about the 8/1/20 open date with negative coved-19 test.


----------



## cman

*Amid US surge, Honolulu’s mayor says state’s plan to reopen tourism Aug. 1 is ‘no longer safe'*









						Ige: Still no decision on whether to push back plan to reopen tourism
					

“We’re really struggling to figure out what we do next to thaw out our economy."




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## Ken555

And...









						Hawaii Labs Face Shortage Of COVID-19 Testing Supplies
					

A national supplier has reduced its shipments to Hawaii as it shifts focus to helping laboratories in states with more severe coronavirus outbreaks.




					www.civilbeat.org


----------



## cman

It looks like all of the county mayors oppose the August 1 reopening plan. 

"_The mayors of Honolulu, Hawaii and Kauai counties say their islands are no longer ready to allow incoming trans-Pacific travelers to opt out of the state’s 14-day quarantine_" 

"_If the state does decide to move forward with the Aug. 1 reopening date, Kawakami said he will ask Ige to grant Kauai a grace period to hold off on allowing tourists back to the Garden Isle._ "









						County Mayors To Ige: We're Not Ready To Welcome Back Tourists
					

With new surges of COVID-19 cases in key states and a sudden disruption in Hawaii's testing capacity, Hawaii's county mayors want the state to rethink its planned Aug. 1 tourism reopening date.




					www.civilbeat.org


----------



## DannyTS

*LG says governor will likely postpone Aug. 1 date to reopen tourism*










						LG says governor will postpone Aug. 1 date to reopen tourism
					

HONOLULU (KHON2) — Lieutenant Governor Josh Green says the governor will likely delay the reopening of tourism, which is currently scheduled for August 1. Although the governor has yet to mak…




					www.khon2.com


----------



## luv_maui

From CNN.  Daily count in hawaii with red line the 14 day moving average.  Definitely increasing trend line


----------



## DavidnRobin

luv_maui said:


> Yes, quarantine means only your room, not even out in the hallway. Your latter comment - no leaving villa for 14 days for any reason other than for medical reasons. I suppose you’d have to leave the room if there was a fire alarm. Unless I had an acceptable negative COVID-19 test in hand before I got on the plane I won’t come back, based on 14 day quarantine in place. We are debating on cancelling our 10 day stay mid Sept., 3 nights hotel + 7 at WKORVN, even if weren’t quarantined, because so much is closed.
> 
> Quarantine means having groceries delivered or meals delivered. No housekeeping entire 14 days unless Westin is different than Marriott’s policy. Online Safeway didn’t deliver to Marriott for whatever reason and DoorDash had very little options. Better meal delivery food options is thru 808Pickups app, but with Higher priced items, delivery charge, tax and tip on top. We did not try 808 pickups, but had a personal delivery service pick us up groceries at Costco & Safeway. Most places allow her service to put groceries in your fridge so just waiting for you on entry yo your room/villa, but Marriott Maui (Exception) didn’t allow it. Uber might have worked from airport to resort but we packed a lot with 4 suitcases to assist with quarantine, so also used a personal driver with a town car. Good luck with your decision. Restricted options vs non-restricted, but it’s certainly unclear how much may or may not be open. I’d guess more will be open IF avoiding 14-day quarantine with negative COVID-19 really does take place but no news / details for about 2 weeks since the announcement to allow avoidance of 14 day quarantine with negative COVID-19 test. Can you really get a covid 19 test for vacation reason with limited testing available? Will you get results in time? What about that possible false positive? Lots of unanswered questions and risks. I certainly wouldn’t risk it with your valuable 14 night stay unless you are confident of getting your negative COVID-19 results in time, willing to have limited activities available and limited restaurants. A lot can change in next 2 months but online availability of interval International inventory indicates otherwise. Best of luck on your hard decision.



Thanks. I couldn’t find your previous report as I only use TapaTalk.

Just found out that if we cancel our Alaska Air flight (that used a companion pass) that the pass needs to be used by end of year. That sucks.

Looks like we will be cancelling our trip. Arg!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Luanne

DavidnRobin said:


> Thanks. I couldn’t find your previous report as I only use TapaTalk.
> 
> Just found out that if we cancel our Alaska Air flight (that used a companion pass) that the pass needs to be used by end of year. That sucks.
> 
> Looks like we will be cancelling our trip. Arg!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


When I cancelled our Alaska Airlines flights to Seattle in May my companion fare was restored through the end of this year.  What that means is I have to book something by then, but the flight itslef doesn't need to by made by the end of the year.  And since they usually don't restore the companion fare at all if you cancel, I was happy with that.


----------



## DannyTS

25 out of the 28 new cases are in Oahu. It seems that the increase is not due to loosening the restrictions for the local businesses or to the inter-island travel. I wonder why just Oahu has such a large increase.


----------



## luv_maui

DavidnRobin said:


> Thanks. I couldn’t find your previous report as I only use TapaTalk.
> 
> Just found out that if we cancel our Alaska Air flight (that used a companion pass) that the pass needs to be used by end of year. That sucks.
> 
> Looks like we will be cancelling our trip. Arg!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The Alaska pass needs to be utilized but the flight can be up to about 11 months later, so basically any flight in 2021 up to about end of November


----------



## jacknsara

DannyTS said:


> 25 out of the 28 new cases are in Oahu. It seems that the increase is not due to loosening the restrictions for the local businesses or to the inter-island travel. I wonder why just Oahu has such a large increase.


my guess is the answer is mostly here https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/t...where-masks-were-optional.306770/post-2472451
I did a search and found the same info on several other newsy sites I recognized, so lets all thank Hawaiian Airlines as we each individually find appropriate
Jack


----------



## geist1223

luv_maui said:


> The Alaska pass needs to be utilized but the flight can be up to about 11 months later, so basically any flight in 2021 up to about end of November



By utilize does Aslaka mean flight actually flown or just Booked?


----------



## DannyTS

jacknsara said:


> my guess is the answer is mostly here https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/t...where-masks-were-optional.306770/post-2472451
> I did a search and found the same info on several other newsy sites I recognized, so lets all thank Hawaiian Airlines as we each individually find appropriate
> Jack


Oahu has had the most number of cases aside for that incident. We also do not know if the flight attendants were all from Oahu or if they came from other islands for that meeting. There must have been another important contributing factor why Honolulu is much worse than the others.


----------



## luv_maui

geist1223 said:


> By utilize does Aslaka mean flight actually flown or just Booked?


Just book any flight by end of 2020, for any flight up to about 330 days in advance thru about November 2021.  If you have plans thru about late June 2021, and already have Alaska airline credit to use up, book before 7/31/2020 and you can later cancel without change fees or change dates


----------



## DannyTS

It seems they will keep Hawaii closed until at least October 1st. I am confused though, it should probably say "should welcome visitors after October 1st"


"It appears the final word by Governor Ige will be a decision over life and death for many unknown residents. Lt. Governor Green together with all 4 mayors agree the State should not welcome visitors after October 1. "









						Hawaii Governor Ige to make a life or death decision
					

Hawaii News : Local with a global view with a focus on the Hawaii Travel and Tourism world.




					hawaiinews.online


----------



## luv_maui

Looks like time to cancel my September trip


----------



## amy241

DannyTS said:


> It seems they will keep Hawaii closed until at least October 1st. I am confused though, it should probably say "should welcome visitors after October 1st"
> 
> 
> "It appears the final word by Governor Ige will be a decision over life and death for many unknown residents. Lt. Governor Green together with all 4 mayors agree the State should not welcome visitors after October 1. "
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii Governor Ige to make a life or death decision
> 
> 
> Hawaii News : Local with a global view with a focus on the Hawaii Travel and Tourism world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> hawaiinews.online



This looks to be someone’s opinion.


----------



## DannyTS

amy241 said:


> This looks to be someone’s opinion.











						LG says governor will postpone Aug. 1 date to reopen tourism
					

HONOLULU (KHON2) — Lieutenant Governor Josh Green says the governor will likely delay the reopening of tourism, which is currently scheduled for August 1. Although the governor has yet to mak…




					www.khon2.com
				




I agree, just that the Lt Governor Green said more or less the same 2 days ago.
_Edited to add: also the mayors hinted they are no longer comfortable with August 1st._

August becomes October, October becomes December. In October the number of new cases will not be zero  and there will always be another hot spot in the US and elsewhere,  the virus is not going away. If they do not open in August, a lot of Hawaiians will be very upset. Just few days ago the governor said he was expecting an increase in cases because they opened the inter island travel and some local businesses but he thought it would be manageable and the plan to reopen was going on. The protests have probably played a role,  this is IMO why Oahu is more affected than other islands. Are the 25 new cases in Oahu not manageable? Was he expecting 15? Nobody knows, they are as vague as a shadow. Probably there are investors that are licking their lips, some real estate deals are going to be very interesting if Hawaii continues on this path for much longer.


----------



## Theiggy

luv_maui said:


> Looks like time to cancel my September trip



Or just stay till then? 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## amycurl

That was my thought too, @Theiggy! @luv_maui should just pick up the handful of weeks he needs to bridge the trips!


----------



## DavidnRobin

amy241 said:


> This looks to be someone’s opinion.



Opinion is the lowest form of human knowledge; it requires no accountability, no understanding.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS

"The highest form of knowledge… is empathy, for it requires us to suspend our egos and live in another’s world. It requires profound purpose larger than the self kind of understanding."


----------



## luv_maui

Too many signs (your own mayors & LT. governor pushing for 10/1, upsurge in cases on mainland, shortage of testing supplies and needed in hot spots thus I see no completion in near-term for partnership with CVS for vacationers getting a covid-19 test with it’s reason to go to Hawaii let alone issues with test results back in time before one boards the plane) leaning towards Governor switching gears and adjusting to the current situation, by extending the opening date To 10/1 or even indefinitely. I’m personally not upset at the Governor or the state of Hawaii, I think they should do what they believe is best For the state and its people Under the circumstances.  I also feel bad for those wanting to come to Hawaii with no clarity but this is a pandemic.  Just overall tough situation.


----------



## Tamaradarann

luv_maui said:


> Too many signs (your own mayors & LT. governor pushing for 10/1, upsurge in cases on mainland, shortage of testing supplies and needed in hot spots thus I see no completion in near-term for partnership with CVS for vacationers getting a covid-19 test with it’s reason to go to Hawaii let alone issues with test results back in time before one boards the plane) leaning towards Governor switching gears and adjusting to the current situation, by extending the opening date To 10/1 or even indefinitely. I’m personally not upset at the Governor or the state of Hawaii, I think they should do what they believe is best For the state and its people Under the circumstances.  I also feel bad for those wanting to come to Hawaii with no clarity but this is a pandemic.  Just overall tough situation.



I don't disagree with what you have said here, however, where did you see the 10/1 that the Lt. Governor and Mayors have been pushing for?  By the way I just sent e-mails to Governor Ige, Lt. Governor Green, and my Mayor Caldwell on what Hawaii needs to do to prepare for the in rush of many tourists.  The e-mail was a summary of my the thoughts that I expressed on the TUG HGVC Thread "Hawaii on for Aug 1"


----------



## luv_maui

Tamaradarann said:


> I don't disagree with what you have said here, however, where did you see the 10/1 that the Lt. Governor and Mayors have been pushing for?  By the way I just sent e-mails to Governor Ige, Lt. Governor Green, and my Mayor Caldwell on what Hawaii needs to do to prepare for the in rush of many tourists.  The e-mail was a summary of my the thoughts that I expressed on the TUG HGVC Thread "Hawaii on for Aug 1"











						LG says governor will postpone Aug. 1 date to reopen tourism
					

HONOLULU (KHON2) — Lieutenant Governor Josh Green says the governor will likely delay the reopening of tourism, which is currently scheduled for August 1. Although the governor has yet to mak…




					www.khon2.com


----------



## luv_maui

Hawaii Governor Ige to make a life or death decision
					

Hawaii News : Local with a global view with a focus on the Hawaii Travel and Tourism world.




					hawaiinews.online
				




see about 2nd or 3rd paragraph about 10/1 date sought by 4 mayors and LT Governor, although a typo in the sentence


----------



## luv_maui

Nothing official, at least yet, but an additional announcement should be forthcoming soon (?) since currently the 8/1 date coming up with currently negative COVID-19 test can avoid 14 day quarantine is still in place.


----------



## rickandcindy23

Yep, Denise, I was going to post this very article.  So much for our trip 8/21-9/4.  I guess we are going somewhere else at the end of August.


----------



## amy241

Ige delays plan to reopen tourism until Sept. 1 amid COVID-19 surge on the mainland
					

“This was not an easy decision to make. It really was a choice between two difficult options."




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				




Hawaii will not be opening on Aug 1st. Ige states that reopening will be “delayed by at least 1 month.” Back to square one with no plan for reopening the state.


----------



## DannyTS

I think the reservation system for hotels and flights should change. Instead of fixed dates, it should be like "a week after the islands reopen", "3 months and 5 days after the islands reopen". The dates in the calendar are meaningless


----------



## Tamaradarann

rickandcindy23 said:


> Yep, Denise, I was going to post this very article.  So much for our trip 8/21-9/4.  I guess we are going somewhere else at the end of August.



We were first scheduled to go the Honolulu in September, then we moved it back to November, now with this news and the amount of virus spreading in many states we are probably going to scrap the winter of 2020/21 and hope for the fall of 2021.  We are over 70 with some hypertension as well as repiratory problems so we feel that staying safe in our private house with cars right outside in the woods where we don't need to be near anyone when we go outside, no elevators, no public transportation is our safe and comfortable place.


----------



## Tamaradarann

amy241 said:


> Ige delays plan to reopen tourism until Sept. 1 amid COVID-19 surge on the mainland
> 
> 
> “This was not an easy decision to make. It really was a choice between two difficult options."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii will not be opening on Aug 1st. Ige states that reopening will be “delayed by at least 1 month.” Back to square one with no plan for reopening the state.


We were first scheduled to go the Honolulu in September, then we moved it back to November, now with this news and the amount of virus spreading in many states we are probably going to scrap the winter of 2020/21 and hope for the fall of 2021. We are over 70 with some hypertension as well as repiratory problems so we feel that staying safe in our private house with cars right outside in the woods where we don't need to be near anyone when we go outside, no elevators, no public transportation is our safe and comfortable place.


----------



## slip

This is the first announcement I have paid attention to since I returned from Molokai. Now that I am back to work we listen to the announcements daily. He hasn’t changed his delivery, he is still vague with answers. I think we may be lucky if it’s October now.


----------



## csodjd

The pressure on the Governor will not lessen with time, it will increase. Waiting until Sept. 1 may be reasonable, given what's happening both in Hawaii and on the mainland, and the difficult caused by necessary lead times. Aug. 1 is right around the corner. It's clear that it will not even be possible to get the required testing done quickly enough given all the people needing tests right now. So he needs to wait until things settle down, both from a safety stand point and just pragmatically. A 72-hour window means nothing if nobody gets tests results that fast. Even if he said it would be open on Saturday to anyone with a negative test within 72 hours of departure, almost nobody would be able to go! 

Hawaii does need to ensure that its residents are complying well and that they have community spread stomped down. And they need to know that people will be ABLE to get a test result fast enough. At the same time, those hotels and restaurants and golf courses and tour companies can't remain shut down indefinitely. It costs just as much to keep a golf course operating for 20 players as it does for 200. But the later is profitable and the former leads to bankruptcy.


----------



## Ken555

Here we go... back to the economic necessity of reopening. We all know these arguments. Give it a rest. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## DavidnRobin

Ige delays plan to reopen tourism until Sept. 1 amid COVID-19 surge on the mainland
					

“This was not an easy decision to make. It really was a choice between two difficult options."




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				




Looks like I am going to cancel our Sept19-Oct3 WKORV stay. Hurts losing our OFD status with converting them to unrestricted SOs. With our STJ cancellation in June - that creates a lot of very expensive SOs (that just become like all others) to use by end of 2022.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## slip

Ken555 said:


> Here we go... back to the economic necessity of reopening. We all know these arguments. Give it a rest.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



Why can’t  post his opinion?


----------



## Ken555

slip said:


> Why can’t post his opinion?



Of course he can. I just think it’s superfluous. It’s been mentioned countless times already. What’s the point? We all know it.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> Here we go... back to the economic necessity of reopening. We all know these arguments. Give it a rest.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Last I checked, I didn't have to get your approval to make a comment. If you have nothing to say, perhaps consider saying nothing.

It begs the question, at what point does a Governor say, this appears to be the best it's going to be, so we either find a way to open up or decide to never open up? Newest research suggests that that antibodies aren't lasting (my sister's are now gone), raising doubts about whether a lasting vaccine can be developed.









						Covid-19 immunity from antibodies may last only months, UK study suggests
					

After people are infected with the novel coronavirus, their natural immunity to the virus could decline within months, a new pre-print paper suggests.




					www.cnn.com
				




At some point it ceases to be a health "emergency," and becomes just the way it is. Perhaps Hawaii (and others) may have to consider a different approach. If the cases can't be lowered to a level the health care system can handle, then maybe the health care system is going to have to be enlarged to handle the cases. It's not just a Hawaii issue, of course. Today the CA governor closed again all indoor restaurants, gyms, wineries, hear salons, etc. Understandable. But the same questions remain. Can we ever get to a point that those are safe -- 2019 safe -- again? If not, we either find a way to deal, or we eliminate indoor dining and hair salons forever.


----------



## slip

Ken555 said:


> Of course he can. I just think it’s superfluous. It’s been mentioned countless times already. What’s the point? We all know it.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk




That’s all these threads are, people repeating themselves.


----------



## Luanne

slip said:


> That’s all these threads are, people repeating themselves.


At this point I don't remember what I've posted where. I don't even remember which site, let alone which thread.  So I *know* I'm repeating myself.


----------



## Ken555

slip said:


> That’s all these threads are, people repeating themselves.



For myself, the posts I find valuable are those with current information. Long-term analysis discussions are no longer of interest to me...I was very interested in those in March and April and maybe May, but now not so much. Perhaps that will change next month.


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> For myself, the posts I find valuable are those with current information. Long-term analysis discussions are no longer of interest to me...I was very interested in those in March and April and maybe May, but now not so much. Perhaps that will change next month.


Certainly understandable and your right. So, stop reading. Nobody makes you read it, and certainly nobody makes you respond to it. Perhaps there is somebody that's reading it for the first time. Odd as it may seem, some posts aren't written to or for you. You have the choice and power to not read discussions that are no longer of interest to you. 

That said, the facts today are not the same as they were 2 months ago. The situation is not the same. The ISSUE is not the same. The context is different. Today we have increasing cases, we have a CHANGE in plans after announced opening, we have the expected requirements to travel to Hawaii, we have new treatments and new information on possible immunity (or lack thereof). It's an evolving situation. The considerations in March/April are different in July/August.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> That said, the facts today are not the same as they were 2 months ago. The situation is not the same. The ISSUE is not the same. The context is different. Today we have increasing cases, we have a CHANGE in plans after announced opening, we have the expected requirements to travel to Hawaii, we have new treatments and new information on possible immunity (or lack thereof). It's an evolving situation. The considerations in March/April are different in July/August.



Yet your responses are the same. Focus on the economy. Why is that?


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Last I checked, I didn't have to get your approval to make a comment. If you have nothing to say, perhaps consider saying nothing.
> 
> It begs the question, at what point does a Governor say, this appears to be the best it's going to be, so we either find a way to open up or decide to never open up? Newest research suggests that that antibodies aren't lasting (my sister's are now gone), raising doubts about whether a lasting vaccine can be developed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 immunity from antibodies may last only months, UK study suggests
> 
> 
> After people are infected with the novel coronavirus, their natural immunity to the virus could decline within months, a new pre-print paper suggests.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> At some point it ceases to be a health "emergency," and becomes just the way it is. Perhaps Hawaii (and others) may have to consider a different approach. If the cases can't be lowered to a level the health care system can handle, then maybe the health care system is going to have to be enlarged to handle the cases. It's not just a Hawaii issue, of course. Today the CA governor closed again all indoor restaurants, gyms, wineries, hear salons, etc. Understandable. But the same questions remain. Can we ever get to a point that those are save -- 2019 safe -- again? If not, we either find a way to deal, or we eliminate indoor dining and hair salons forever.



I'm not a big hair salon person so if they never opened it wouldn't matter to me.  As far as restauants, in Hawaii, where the weather is pretty nice all year round, I can see eliminating indoor dining and getting by.  However, in the colder climates and in the unbearably hot places like Las Vegas outdoor dining won't bring customers much of the year.   Take out brings in some money but drinks are the big money maker in most restaurants, so take out really doesn't cut it financially for the long haul.


----------



## controller1

With the high unemployment rate in Hawaii, I feel extremely sorry for those who will lose that $600/week additional unemployment payment beginning August 1 with no known date on the horizon on when they will be able to work again. Of course, that also goes for locales other than just Hawaii.


----------



## luv_maui

controller1 said:


> With the high unemployment rate in Hawaii, I feel extremely sorry for those who will lose that $600/week additional unemployment payment beginning August 1 with no known date on the horizon on when they will be able to work again. Of course, that also goes for locales other than just Hawaii.


My understanding is that the exact language is that the extra $600/week stops the week prior to the week ending 7/31/2020 so the last extra $600, unless congress extends, will be 7/24 or 7/25/2020.  Many will be surprised it’s NOT in the end of July paycheck.









						Extra $600 in pandemic unemployment aid may end a week early for some
					

CARES Act directs money to run through July 31. But the fine print says some states will cut it off a week earlier.




					www.cbsnews.com


----------



## jabberwocky

Ken555 said:


> Yet your responses are the same. Focus on the economy. Why is that?


Because not everyone is lucky enough to be retired with a reliable pension check coming in every month. Some still have to work for a living. I’m fortunate enough to be able to work from home largely - but I know a number of families that are worried about putting food on the table or losing their jobs once government stimulus ends.


----------



## Ken555

jabberwocky said:


> Because not everyone is lucky enough to be retired with a reliable pension check coming in every month. Some still have to work for a living. I’m fortunate enough to be able to work from home largely - but I know a number of families that are worried about putting food on the table or losing their jobs once government stimulus ends.



I have that concern. I'm not retired. My business has been impacted in a huge way by this mess. I have no idea how it's going to turn out. But I don't think that's the root reason for the earlier post. Anyway, moving on.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I'm not a big hair salon person so if they never opened it wouldn't matter to me.  As far as restauants, in Hawaii, where the weather is pretty nice all year round, I can see eliminating indoor dining and getting by.  However, in the colder climates and in the unbearably hot places like Las Vegas outdoor dining won't bring customers much of the year.   Take out brings in some money but drinks are the big money maker in most restaurants, so take out really doesn't cut it financially for the long haul.


However, even in Hawaii, which is about as nice as America gets, there are times and/or places where you're glad to be indoors. Whether it's high up visiting the volcano on the Big Island, or during a storm. And consider the space requirements if ALL the indoor dining is forever to be outdoors. That leaves a lot of square feet being paid for that collects dust, and a need to rent a lot of outdoor space.


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> Yet your responses are the same. Focus on the economy. Why is that?


If the economy and financial impact were no issue at all, it would all be pretty simple. Everyone shut down every business until the virus is eradicated. No film production. No sports. No retail sales. No restaurants or bars. No Home Depot. No malls. No clothing stores. Just essentials like grocery stores and hospitals. Total home confinement. Easy.

It is the economic impact on the Country and the individual that creates the TOUGH decisions, the hard choices, the compromises. If you open your eyes you may observe that the entire country is consumed with debate, battle, disagreement, division, political and apolitical, over the correct balance between protecting health and protecting the economy. 

However, you'll not find one post of mine, anywhere, ever, in any forum, that says it's all about or just about the money, the money comes first, etc. My view is that health must be protected first and foremost, and the economy allowed to operate as much as possible within those confines, not the other way around. So my focus is not "on the economy," it is on how much business can be done while ensuring that health is being protected fully. The goal is maximum protection of health, with smallest possible economic impact. 

However, like stock options, there is a time value. If the virus cannot be eradicated, if a vaccine is not on the horizon, if there is no light at the end of that tunnel, a time does come, like it or not, when we have to make the necessary changes to allow life to continue. I have a daughter almost 19, and another 29. They'd really like to go on a date again in their lives, and maybe hang out with friends. So, eventually we're going to need to go to Home Depot and buy clothes. So we may need to figure out how to do it safely. Not risk free, but with minimum risk. That includes vacationing, going to church, dating, and doing the things that PEOPLE DO. Otherwise the virus wins, and humans lose.


----------



## easyrider

Hawaii is not reopened until Sept 1. They don't like the surge on the mainland. I bet Sept 1 isn't happening either.

Bill









						Ige delays plan to reopen tourism until Sept. 1 amid COVID-19 surge on the mainland
					

“This was not an easy decision to make. It really was a choice between two difficult options."




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> If the economy and financial impact were no issue at all, it would all be pretty simple. Everyone shut down every business until the virus is eradicated. No film production. No sports. No retail sales. No restaurants or bars. No Home Depot. No malls. No clothing stores. Just essentials like grocery stores and hospitals. Total home confinement. Easy.
> 
> It is the economic impact on the Country and the individual that creates the TOUGH decisions, the hard choices, the compromises. If you open your eyes you may observe that the entire country is consumed with debate, battle, disagreement, division, political and apolitical, over the correct balance between protecting health and protecting the economy.
> 
> However, you'll not find one post of mine, anywhere, ever, in any forum, that says it's all about or just about the money, the money comes first, etc. My view is that health must be protected first and foremost, and the economy allowed to operate as much as possible within those confines, not the other way around. So my focus is not "on the economy," it is on how much business can be done while ensuring that health is being protected fully. The goal is maximum protection of health, with smallest possible economic impact.
> 
> However, like stock options, there is a time value. If the virus cannot be eradicated, if a vaccine is not on the horizon, if there is no light at the end of that tunnel, a time does come, like it or not, when we have to make the necessary changes to allow life to continue. I have a daughter almost 19, and another 29. They'd really like to go on a date again in their lives, and maybe hang out with friends. So, eventually we're going to need to go to Home Depot and buy clothes. So we may need to figure out how to do it safely. Not risk free, but with minimum risk. That includes vacationing, going to church, dating, and doing the things that PEOPLE DO. Otherwise the virus wins, and humans lose.



I agree with you here and the post of my thoughts about hair salons and indoor dining in Hawaii were aligned with your sentiment.  Your response to that post correctly pointed out that sometimes, even in Hawaii, you want to dine indoors; but not being able to go to a restauant on the top of the volcano or during a storm would not be the end of the world so restricting that would be an example of a compromise).  The point of my post was that while in Hawaii you could feasibly make make that hard choice to restrict restaurant dining to outdoors only, that would not be feasible in the majority of the country due to the inclement weather.

Your point about the space indoors that is being paid for collecting dust brings to light the issue of all indoor commercial and office space that is excess and may not be needed since people are working and shopping from home.  I am intentionally NOT investing in REITs that own that type of space right now since I believe that the ownership of that type of space is an endangered endeavor in the future.


----------



## Fredm

This the first realistic Hawaii related travel news I have seen.

Waikiki's Halekulani Hotel announces closure until mid-2021.

Although it cites repairs they will make while closed, a longer reading makes clear the projected ongoing lack of business is the real reason.
I know this is a hotel and not a timeshare, but it does not bode well for the "rubber meets the road" tourist outlook. It just rings true.

I fondly remember the famed old Halekulani. I was among the last guests to occupy the bungalows spread out on the beach.
The only thing that was saved from the bulldozer was the House Without a Key dining room.
The closing show featured Don Ho, who then commenced to insult us all with how we came and ruined the place. Some laughed at his smiling, but not me.
I remember to this day the thin veneer that covers some native Hawaiian's disdain (not undeserved) for mainlanders.


----------



## nerodog

Hawaii delays reopening tourism until Sept. 1
					

Travelers must be patient before visiting paradise.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## csodjd

Fredm said:


> This the first realistic Hawaii related travel news I have seen.
> 
> Waikiki's Halekulani Hotel announces closure until mid-2021.
> 
> Although it cites repairs they will make while closed, a longer reading makes clear the projected ongoing lack of business is the real reason.
> I know this is a hotel and not a timeshare, but it does not bode well for the "rubber meets the road" tourist outlook. It just rings true.
> 
> I fondly remember the famed old Halekulani. I was among the last guests to occupy the bungalows spread out on the beach.
> The only thing that was saved from the bulldozer was the House Without a Key dining room.
> The closing show featured Don Ho, who then commenced to insult us all with how we came and ruined the place. Some laughed at his smiling, but not me.
> I remember to this day the thin veneer that covers some native Hawaiian's disdain (not undeserved) for mainlanders.


I believe Ochids restaurant is there - one of our favorite dining spots. I was disappointed to read about the closure. Hope it reopens.


----------



## DavidnRobin

Maui ain’t happening easily anytime soon.

Just cancelled our 1Bd OFD WKORV for Sept19-26
and a 1Bd WKORV (SOs) for Sept26-Oct3.
With our cancellation of 2-weeks at WSJ in June, this leaves 340K SOs to bank by Oct (a 3* benefit I thought I’d ever use), and use in 2021-22 along with our existing usage in those years. Yikes!
Ouch!
 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

We're still holding onto hope for our Oct 26 - Nov 9 in Oahu and Maui, but I told my wife if we don't know 30 days before, we'll have to cancel.


----------



## yeereid

I'm seriously considering moving our Nov 5 trip to April 2021.


----------



## MommaBear

I think the title of this thread should be amended to change August to September.


----------



## PigsDad

MommaBear said:


> I think the title of this thread should be amended to change August to September.


I wouldn't take that bet... 

Kurt


----------



## Tamaradarann

yeereid said:


> I'm seriously considering moving our Nov 5 trip to April 2021.



I had reservations for September that I already moved to November, now I think I will cancel those completely and let the points be moved to 2021.  In 2021 I have reservations for Janauary which I probably won't be using and will eventually move to later in 2021.  I believe that for us the 2020/2021 Fall,winter,spring seasons will be a travelling zero.  We will start to forcus on summer, fall 2021.


----------



## csodjd

PigsDad said:


> I wouldn't take that bet...
> 
> Kurt


I wouldn’t bet... but I predict that Hawaii doesn’t extend beyond the Sept. 1 date. For one thing, it was probably not an easy decision for them to make to extend from Aug 1. Doubt they want to deal with that conflict again. Second, hopefully (optimistically) I think the “wave” now occurring will subside over the next four weeks if for no other reason than closing down some of the hot spots of transmission (bars, etc) and hopefully a renewal of mask use, especially in younger people. Recognizing the 14 or so day lag to see the change, I think by the end of July we’ll see new cases dropping. 

That said, it also would not surprise me if Hawaii decides they need to get a bit selective and follow the lead of other states by restricting access and not allowing those whose trip originates in areas where infection rates are at 10% or more. Since everyone comes by air, that’s a relatively easy tool for them to use and gets away from the all-or-nothing of their current proposal. There’s quite a different risk today between a traveler from New York vs. one from Florida, and it would be quite easy for them to recognize that and allow for it.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I wouldn’t bet... but I predict that Hawaii doesn’t extend beyond the Sept. 1 date. For one thing, it was probably not an easy decision for them to make to extend from Aug 1. Doubt they want to deal with that conflict again. Second, hopefully (optimistically) I think the “wave” now occurring will subside over the next four weeks if for no other reason than closing down some of the hot spots of transmission (bars, etc) and hopefully a renewal of mask use, especially in younger people. Recognizing the 14 or so day lag to see the change, I think by the end of July we’ll see new cases dropping.
> 
> That said, it also would not surprise me if Hawaii decides they need to get a bit selective and follow the lead of other states by restricting access and not allowing those whose trip originates in areas where infection rates are at 10% or more. Since everyone comes by air, that’s a relatively easy tool for them to use and gets away from the all-or-nothing of their current proposal. There’s quite a different risk today between a traveler from New York vs. one from Florida, and it would be quite easy for them to recognize that and allow for it.



As I have been saying I believe there are 2 key issues that need to be addressed adequately:

One is assurance that the testing and results are in a timely manner to comply with the requirement to avoid the 14 day quarantine.

The Second one is a feasible way to deal with those that may come without getting tested with the intention of violating the 14 day quarantine.  I believe the annoucement and publicizing of a escorted trip to a guarded quarantine destination will eliminate most if not all who feel they don't want to get tested first but still come with the intention of violating the quarantine.  Once there is the assurance that the testing and results will be available in a timely manner I can't see anyone coming and enduring a 14 quarantine in your room in Hawii instead of getting tested unless their intention is to go rogue so the escorted trip to a guarded quarantine destination will be more or a threat than a major necessity.


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## PigsDad

csodjd said:


> I wouldn’t bet... but I predict that Hawaii doesn’t extend beyond the Sept. 1 date.


Well, I will have to say you are more optimistic than I am.  Everything to date that I have seen coming from the leaders in Hawaii makes me believe that they would rather stay closed for an extended time, and the Aug 1 date only came up as a possibility because in early June, the mainland was showing a major reduction in cases across the board.  Now that they have seen how fast cases can spike across multiple / a majority of the states in such short time, they may dig their heels in again.  The longer they stay closed, the longer being closed becomes "normal".  And we are seeing polls of Hawaiians overwhelmingly support not relaxing the quarantine requirements (last one I saw was on the 80% in favor level).

Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but I don't see that tide turning soon, and I think Hawaii may end up being fundamentally changed for years to come.

Kurt


----------



## Fredm

PigsDad said:


> Well, I will have to say you are more optimistic than I am.  Everything to date that I have seen coming from the leaders in Hawaii makes me believe that they would rather stay closed for an extended time, and the Aug 1 date only came up as a possibility because in early June, the mainland was showing a major reduction in cases across the board.  Now that they have seen how fast cases can spike across multiple / a majority of the states is such short time, they may dig their heels in again.  The longer they stay closed, the longer being closed becomes "normal".  And we are seeing polls of Hawaiians overwhelmingly support not relaxing the quarantine requirements (last one I saw was on the 80% in favor level).
> 
> Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but I don't see that tide turning soon, and I think Hawaii may end up being fundamentally changed for years to come.
> 
> Kurt


Kurt, I agree with you.  I posted this yesterday in the Travel thread.


----------



## csodjd

PigsDad said:


> Well, I will have to say you are more optimistic than I am.  Everything to date that I have seen coming from the leaders in Hawaii makes me believe that they would rather stay closed for an extended time, and the Aug 1 date only came up as a possibility because in early June, the mainland was showing a major reduction in cases across the board.  Now that they have seen how fast cases can spike across multiple / a majority of the states is such short time, they may dig their heels in again.  The longer they stay closed, the longer being closed becomes "normal".  And we are seeing polls of Hawaiians overwhelmingly support not relaxing the quarantine requirements (last one I saw was on the 80% in favor level).
> 
> Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but I don't see that tide turning soon, and I think Hawaii may end up being fundamentally changed for years to come.
> 
> Kurt


Well, there's room for a wide range of optimism here. One thing I note though is that one of their major concerns was Hawaii's own increase and the concern that if THEY are increasing, adding new cases from the mainland might be more than they can handle. But, when you look a bit deeper, a crazy large amount of their new cases are apparently traced to a single person that was infected and went to two gyms and the HA training, infecting a whole bunch of people. Hawaii authorities appear to have been able to trace it all down pretty well, and so the spread and new cases should quickly subside. If so, it may improve their comfort level. (I'm a lawyer... rationalizing an argument is what I do for a living.  )

Anyway, I prefer to be optimistic, but not unprepared. So I'm hopeful a trip in Oct/Nov will happen, but I already know when and how I'll proceed if it doesn't. Since we/I can't control any of the decisions that Hawaii will make, all I can do is remain nimble and not allow myself to get caught off guard or frustrated.


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## klpca

I have pretty much given up on our Sept trip (and honestly don't care) but I am going to ride this one out until the end because I already had to pay another exchange fee to SFX because *I* changed the trip, but they seem to be waiving the fee if Hawaii makes the change. So I will be sitting tight. With my II week, I have eplus and will be asking them to waive the flex restriction as well. If they don't, then I will take my lumps. Our airfare is booked with points on Hawaiian so they will just put my points back. Oh well. Our jobs are safe. Our kids are grown and we don't have to worry about the school situation. We can work from home, which is lovely and has a beautiful back yard in which to spend our time. I am trying to be grateful for all that we have because there are some who are struggling - economically, socially, emotionally - you name it, and I really feel for those folks. I don't know how some of them are going to survive. My hairdresser said that she is barely making ends meet and that was before CA shut down again. There are single moms who work at the same salon and they were already having to utilize the food bank to feed their kids. I can't imagine how they must be feeling to be shutting down again. It is just emotionally devastating. I just hope that we can turn this around soon for their sakes. My trips can wait.


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## csodjd

klpca said:


> I have pretty much given up on our Sept trip (and honestly don't care) but I am going to ride this one out until the end because I already had to pay another exchange fee to SFX because *I* changed the trip, but they seem to be waiving the fee if Hawaii makes the change. So I will be sitting tight. With my II week, I have eplus and will be asking them to waive the flex restriction as well. If they don't, then I will take my lumps. Our airfare is booked with points on Hawaiian so they will just put my points back. Oh well. Our jobs are safe. Our kids are grown and we don't have to worry about the school situation. We can work from home, which is lovely and has a beautiful back yard in which to spend our time. I am trying to be grateful for all that we have because there are some who are struggling - economically, socially, emotionally - you name it, and I really feel for those folks. I don't know how some of them are going to survive. My hairdresser said that she is barely making ends meet and that was before CA shut down again. There are single moms who work at the same salon and they were already having to utilize the food bank to feed their kids. I can't imagine how they must be feeling to be shutting down again. It is just emotionally devastating. I just hope that we can turn this around soon for their sakes. My trips can wait.


All true. And the stress many will experience may be made that much worse if they return to unemployment without the benefit of the federal $600/wk add-on. Most in the low-wage arena cannot afford to pay their bills on unemployment benefits alone.


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## geist1223

We are hanging on to our 9/5/20 - 9/26/20 Kaua'i trip.


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## Tucsonadventurer

We have 2 months booked starting in Jan so hopefully by then things will be more clear. If not I would quarantine but my husband would never agree. He needs his daily bike ride or hike.


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## 1Kflyerguy

geist1223 said:


> We are hanging on to our 9/5/20 - 9/26/20 Kaua'i trip.



We are booked to leave for Kauai on Sept 29, then move to the Big Island Oct 3rd.    I am conflicted if keep the booking as is, or cancel before i incur any cancellation restrictions / penalties.

Most worried about the Kauai portions as its only 4 nights, as so far they have been the most restrictive.  Not to mention that 4 nights does not allow for much of an delay in test results.


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## csodjd

1Kflyerguy said:


> We are booked to leave for Kauai on Sept 29, then move to the Big Island Oct 3rd.    I am conflicted if keep the booking as is, or cancel before i incur any cancellation restrictions / penalties.
> 
> Most worried about the Kauai portions as its only 4 nights, as so far they have been the most restrictive.  Not to mention that 4 nights does not allow for much of an delay in test results.


The great unknown over which none of us has any control -- the time it takes to get test results back. My plan (we'll see) is to get tested (family) about 5-6 days ahead of the trip and to self-quarantine starting a couple days before that first test. Then get a second test within the 72 hr window. I will ASSUME that the 2nd test will produce the same results as the first. If anyone comes back positive from the first test, trip is off before we leave. If everyone comes back negative, then we can head to Hawaii even without the results of the 2nd test back in time with high confidence that those results will also be negative. We can handle a day or so of quarantine in Hawaii if we have to wait for test results.


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## Luanne

csodjd said:


> The great unknown over which none of us has any control -- the time it takes to get test results back. My plan (we'll see) is to get tested (family) about 5-6 days ahead of the trip and to self-quarantine starting a couple days before that first test. Then get a second test within the 72 hr window. I will ASSUME that the 2nd test will produce the same results as the first. If anyone comes back positive from the first test, trip is off before we leave. If everyone comes back negative, then we can head to Hawaii even without the results of the 2nd test back in time with high confidence that those results will also be negative. We can handle a day or so of quarantine in Hawaii if we have to wait for test results.


Someone we know was exposed.  He got tested on Friday and is still waiting for results.  It seems the first test might have gotten lost so he got tested again on Monday and was told he'd get the results in 24 to 48 hours.  He's still waiting.  

That would be what would drive me nuts about having to depend on getting a test done and have results in hand before traveling.


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## csodjd

Luanne said:


> Someone we know was exposed.  He got tested on Friday and is still waiting for results.  It seems the first test might have gotten lost so he got tested again on Monday and was told he'd get the results in 24 to 48 hours.  He's still waiting.
> 
> That would be what would drive me nuts about having to depend on getting a test done and have results in hand before traveling.


As would arriving in Hawaii only to learn that someone in your family tested positive. Hopefully this surge will subside and the labs will be able to catch up and get into a routine they can manage. If you have to wait for test results as long as the quarantine, it rather defeats the purpose of the test.


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## 1Kflyerguy

Luanne said:


> Someone we know was exposed.  He got tested on Friday and is still waiting for results.  It seems the first test might have gotten lost so he got tested again on Monday and was told he'd get the results in 24 to 48 hours.  He's still waiting.
> 
> That would be what would drive me nuts about having to depend on getting a test done and have results in hand before traveling.



I have been sick since last Thursday.  My Dr ordered a covide test, i was tested on Friday July 10th, at 9:00 am.  Got my test results back at 5:00 PM Sunday.  So in theory i would have received them leaving if i was traveling..  But not lots of room for delays...


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> The great unknown over which none of us has any control -- the time it takes to get test results back. My plan (we'll see) is to get tested (family) about 5-6 days ahead of the trip and to self-quarantine starting a couple days before that first test. Then get a second test within the 72 hr window. I will ASSUME that the 2nd test will produce the same results as the first. If anyone comes back positive from the first test, trip is off before we leave. If everyone comes back negative, then we can head to Hawaii even without the results of the 2nd test back in time with high confidence that those results will also be negative. We can handle a day or so of quarantine in Hawaii if we have to wait for test results.



Testing people and getting the results back after they have already travelled by plane, or relying on a 2nd test on arrival is NOT the ideal way to prevent this virus spread to Hawaii.  Only reliable testing and results before the flight is the way to go.  If you have already travelled to Hawaii with the virus the possibility is that you have already spread the virus in the airport to other travellers, on the plane, in the Hawaii airport, in the Cab or Uber, and in the accommodation check in and bag handling.


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## Ralph Sir Edward

Cancellation is not a possibility right now for me. Bay Club office is still closed, and as a direct booking owner (not part of HGVC) I can't change anything. . .


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Testing people and getting the results back after they have already travelled by plane, or relying on a 2nd test on arrival is NOT the ideal way to prevent this virus spread to Hawaii.  Only reliable testing and results before the flight is the way to go.  If you have already travelled to Hawaii with the virus the possibility is that you have already spread the virus in the airport to other travellers, on the plane, in the Hawaii airport, in the Cab or Uber, and in the accommodation check in and bag handling.


Hence the initial test with results BEFORE traveling. Not sure, but you appear to have missed the point of my post/process. It is to address the REALITY that you may not have or be able to obtain test results within the 72 hour (or less if that’s 72 hrs from landing) timeframe. You offer no solution to that problem. 

I completely disagree with your post, however. If you believe what you post, then nobody should ever go anywhere. If its okay to travel with one negative test, why would it NOT be okay to travel with one negative test and a second test result pending? The key to making it work is to self-quarantine — stay home — between tests so there’s ZERO risk of new exposure. In that scenario the only “risk” is the risk of a false negative — but that’s a risk that exists on any test. So, your concern and hypothetical scenario of infecting everyone in the airport, on the plane, in a cab, etc, makes no sense at all. Can you explain how TWO tests, one negative and one not yet known, with no exposure risk between them, INCREASES the risk over one test alone?


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## GeorgeJ.

If I owned the Halekulani I certainly would not be doing any upgrades to it....they are betting that travel will ever resume to Hawaii..


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## jjking42

We are booked in to WKORVN via an II exchange for check in 9/18.

Still want to go but not looking good on quarantine. I have never canceled an II exchange. I booked this way before Covid. Should I cancel now or wait to see if they extend the quarantine. I have never canceled an II exchange before. I did not buy insurance or the ability to switch resorts. I forgot what they call that. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## amy241

jjking42 said:


> We are booked in to WKORVN via an II exchange for check in 9/18.
> 
> Still want to go but not looking good on quarantine. I have never canceled an II exchange. I booked this way before Covid. Should I cancel now or wait to see if they extend the quarantine. I have never canceled an II exchange before. I did not buy insurance or the ability to switch resorts. I forgot what they call that.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I believe you need to cancel at least 60 days prior to check in for a better result — you are really close! I cancelled within 60 days because I did not know better and got hammered.


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## LisaH

amy241 said:


> I believe you need to cancel at least 60 days prior to check in for a better result — you are really close! I cancelled within 60 days because I did not know better and got hammered.


We have an exchange to Westin Nanea with check-in date of July 24. Tomorrow (July 17) is the last day that I can cancel and get a replacement week. Still working with Vistana and II to get it done as I have sold the week I used for this exchange and II can't cancel until Vistana does something with my corporate Vistana membership. Tomorrow is the last day...


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## klpca

LisaH said:


> We have an exchange to Westin Nanea with check-in date of July 24. Tomorrow (July 17) is the last day that I can cancel and get a replacement week. Still working with Vistana and II to get it done as I have sold the week I used for this exchange and II can't cancel until Vistana does something with my corporate Vistana membership. Tomorrow is the last day...


If you haven't reached out to our TUG rep at II, Mark Delcampo, I suggest that you involve him in the situation. He has the ability to solve issues. See this thread: https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/i...s-direct-email-for-tug-member-support.198023/


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Hence the initial test with results BEFORE traveling. Not sure, but you appear to have missed the point of my post/process. It is to address the REALITY that you may not have or be able to obtain test results within the 72 hour (or less if that’s 72 hrs from landing) timeframe. You offer no solution to that problem.
> 
> I completely disagree with your post, however. If you believe what you post, then nobody should ever go anywhere. If its okay to travel with one negative test, why would it NOT be okay to travel with one negative test and a second test result pending? The key to making it work is to self-quarantine — stay home — between tests so there’s ZERO risk of new exposure. In that scenario the only “risk” is the risk of a false negative — but that’s a risk that exists on any test. So, your concern and hypothetical scenario of infecting everyone in the airport, on the plane, in a cab, etc, makes no sense at all. Can you explain how TWO tests, one negative and one not yet known, with no exposure risk between them, INCREASES the risk over one test alone?



You are missing my point also. First of all I don't know where you got this thought from since I certainly didn't say that one negative test was NOT OK, with a second test pending!!! * If its okay to travel with one negative test, why would it NOT be okay to travel with one negative test and a second test result pending?*  All I wanted is ONE NEGATIVE TEST.   I don't care if you get one test, two tests or a test everyday from now until you come home from Hawaii if that makes you happy.  All I am saying is that for the system to assure that people are not travelling to Hawaii and contaminating people all along the way with the virus ONE TEST WITH RESULTS THAT ARE NEGATIVE NEEDS TO BE WHAT KEEPS YOU FROM THE REQUIRED 14 DAY QUARANTINE.


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## jjking42

amy241 said:


> I believe you need to cancel at least 60 days prior to check in for a better result — you are really close! I cancelled within 60 days because I did not know better and got hammered.



Should I call or do it online ? Will the result be the same either way ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> You are missing my point also. First of all I don't know where you got this thought from since I certainly didn't say that one negative test was NOT OK, with a second test pending!!! * If its okay to travel with one negative test, why would it NOT be okay to travel with one negative test and a second test result pending?*  All I wanted is ONE NEGATIVE TEST.   I don't care if you get one test, two tests or a test everyday from now until you come home from Hawaii if that makes you happy.  All I am saying is that for the system to assure that people are not travelling to Hawaii and contaminating people all along the way with the virus ONE TEST WITH RESULTS THAT ARE NEGATIVE NEEDS TO BE WHAT KEEPS YOU FROM THE REQUIRED 14 DAY QUARANTINE.


Agree. But, it is inaccurate or incomplete to say "one test with results that are negative needs to be what keeps you from the required 14 day quarantine." It is inaccurate because it ignores the CRITICAL point that the "one test" must be within 72 hours of arrival. You're ignoring that. But I'm not addressing keeping Hawaii free of COVID. I'm addressing a solution to the problem of potentially not having your test result within 72 hours of you boarding the plane. How to "know" it is okay to go anyway.

If you KNOW for sure you'll have the test result back in 1-2 days, great. We're on the same page. But if you cannot know that, which is often going to be the case, one may not want to head to Hawaii and risk landing and finding out someone was positive. Then you have the problems you described of potentially infecting others, and the problem of having to quarantine for 14 days in Hawaii. All I was trying to do was lay out a plan for helping make that a very unlikely thing to happen and still be able to go. 

Where I got that from was your comment, "relying on a 2nd test on arrival." My entire post was about NOT "relying" on a test after arrival by knowing what those test results will be. So, instead of "relying" on that test, you are merely "waiting" for it. By taking an earlier test and quarantining before the "required" test you can know with a high degree of confidence that the "required" test (within 72 hours) will be negative, eliminating the risk of flying over without having your required test result.

It's not perfect, but it (I believe) greatly reduces your risk of a surprise positive test result while still allowing you to go.


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## amy241

jjking42 said:


> Should I call or do it online ? Will the result be the same either way ?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I would suggest calling so you can ask questions of them, find out what you are getting as a result of cancellation, etc.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Agree. But, it is inaccurate or incomplete to say "one test with results that are negative needs to be what keeps you from the required 14 day quarantine." It is inaccurate because it ignores the CRITICAL point that the "one test" must be within 72 hours of arrival. You're ignoring that. But I'm not addressing keeping Hawaii free of COVID. I'm addressing a solution to the problem of potentially not having your test result within 72 hours of you boarding the plane. How to "know" it is okay to go anyway.
> 
> If you KNOW for sure you'll have the test result back in 1-2 days, great. We're on the same page. But if you cannot know that, which is often going to be the case, one may not want to head to Hawaii and risk landing and finding out someone was positive. Then you have the problems you described of potentially infecting others, and the problem of having to quarantine for 14 days in Hawaii. All I was trying to do was lay out a plan for helping make that a very unlikely thing to happen and still be able to go.
> 
> Where I got that from was your comment, "relying on a 2nd test on arrival." My entire post was about NOT "relying" on a test after arrival by knowing what those test results will be. So, instead of "relying" on that test, you are merely "waiting" for it. By taking an earlier test and quarantining before the "required" test you can know with a high degree of confidence that the "required" test (within 72 hours) will be negative, eliminating the risk of flying over without having your required test result.
> 
> It's not perfect, but it (I believe) greatly reduces your risk of a surprise positive test result while still allowing you to go.



OK, now I understand your focus was a plan for not getting the results back in 72 hours.  My focus was keeping Hawaii as safe as possible.  My nickel in this discussion comes from 2 different places.  While I am currently residing in New York, I have been and still will be a tourist when I return to Hawaii.  However, I now own a Condonmium in Honolulu so I look at this as a resident of Hawaii as well.  I am not interested in just a safe enjoyable trip to Hawaii, I am interested in remaining safe in Hawaii for the future.  From my perspecgtive whatever is set up must optimize the safety of the residents of Hawaii as well as getting the Hawaii Econcomy moving again.  While we had plans for going to Hawaii in late 2020 and staying into the middle of 2021, we are now resigned to staying in New York until sometime in 2021.  

As far as getting the results back in 72 hours or 5 days etc.  Hawaii announced a "partnership" with CVS for the Coronavirus Testing.  Well I don't know what that partnership was but from my perspective if Hawaii was speaking of exempting the quarantine with negative test results within 72 hours of departure, then CVS' end of the partnership HAD TO BE to providing the results within 72 hours.  If CVS can't do that then what was the partnership?  If CVS can only turn the test around with 5 days, and that is _medically acceptable_, then Hawaii needs to change the requirement for exempting the quarantine to 5 days.  The _medically acceptable _term is important and I believe you are in a better position than I to address that.  

The other testing and travel issue that I haven't heard discussed that concerns me is getting tested and then getting infected before your flight.  Our flights to Hawaii have always been in the winter.  I don't know how others handle this but even before the Coronavirus we would stay away from our Grandchildren and Large Events about a week before our flight so that we wouldn't catch the Flu or a Common Cold before a flight.  In view of the Coronavirus I would hope everyone who flys would take that type of pre-flight precaution.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> OK, now I understand your focus was a plan for not getting the results back in 72 hours.  My focus was keeping Hawaii as safe as possible.  My nickel in this discussion comes from 2 different places.  While I am currently residing in New York, I have been and still will be a tourist when I return to Hawaii.  However, I now own a Condonmium in Honolulu so I look at this as a resident of Hawaii as well.  I am not interested in just a safe enjoyable trip to Hawaii, I am interested in remaining safe in Hawaii for the future.  From my perspecgtive whatever is set up must optimize the safety of the residents of Hawaii as well as getting the Hawaii Econcomy moving again.  While we had plans for going to Hawaii in late 2020 and staying into the middle of 2021, we are now resigned to staying in New York until sometime in 2021.
> 
> As far as getting the results back in 72 hours or 5 days etc.  Hawaii announced a "partnership" with CVS for the Coronavirus Testing.  Well I don't know what that partnership was but from my perspective if Hawaii was speaking of exempting the quarantine with negative test results within 72 hours of departure, then CVS' end of the partnership HAD TO BE to providing the results within 72 hours.  If CVS can't do that then what was the partnership?  If CVS can only turn the test around with 5 days, and that is _medically acceptable_, then Hawaii needs to change the requirement for exempting the quarantine to 5 days.  The _medically acceptable _term is important and I believe you are in a better position than I to address that.
> 
> The other testing and travel issue that I haven't heard discussed that concerns me is getting tested and then getting infected before your flight.  Our flights to Hawaii have always been in the winter.  I don't know how others handle this but even before the Coronavirus we would stay away from our Grandchildren and Large Events about a week before our flight so that we wouldn't catch the Flu or a Common Cold before a flight.  In view of the Coronavirus I would hope everyone who flys would take that type of pre-flight precaution.


I‘d say there are three risks. One is what you say, becoming infected after the test, before the departure. The other two are related, and those are the sources of false negatives: a bad test, or a test too soon (you are infected, but it’s not detectable yet). The 72 hour “rule” Hawaii is using is a compromise. Ideally you’d be tested and get near immediate results right before getting on the plane. But that’s obviously not feasible. So Hawaii’s authorities know and accept that the 72 hour window will miss some infections and there WILL be an increase in cases on the islands. But if they feel they have the testing and contact tracing tools to meet the demand they can quickly isolate any breakout, so they feel the risk (relative to the economic benefits) is worth it. 

There is nothing magic about 72 hours. If it was 5 days you’d increase the number of infected people making it to Hawaii. If it was 1 day you’d decrease that, but nobody would have test results. So they’re just trying to find a happy compromise. 

From my perspective, and I hope others, from the a day or two before testing until departure, my family will strictly limit doing anything that risks exposure (save for the airport, which obviously can’t be avoided). This will help reduce risk of false negative. I also don’t trust self-tests. I want a professional to obtain the sample. We don’t want to bring infection to Hawaii, and we don’t want to spend our vacation in quarantine or in a hospital in Hawaii!


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## Tamaradarann

lynne said:


> 10th Proclamation extending the 14 day quarantine signed
> 
> 
> 
> https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/2007090-ATG_Tenth-Supplementary-Proclamation-for-COVID-19-distribution-signed.pdf



While this document clearing states that those that are involved with critical infrastrucure are exempt from the quaratine, I don't see anything about exempting military and airline flight personel.  This document is so long that I could have missed it but is it in there or is it assumed that they are exempt?


----------



## dsmrp

I tried reading the travel rules within the 10th proclamation. It does not state as far as I interpret, an additional quarantine for each island visited. THere had been one in effect and that was relaxed a few weeks ago.  So if I do 14 day quarantine on Oahu, then I could fly to say Mauii, and not have to quarantine again?

DH and I need to go to Honolulu to help with home care for my mother with non-Covid health problem . Hopefully no one subsequently gets covid from flight travel or health treatment facilities. We are thinking of  going to another island for a TBD  few days at the end of our stay.


----------



## lynne

dsmrp said:


> I tried reading the travel rules within the 10th proclamation. It does not state as far as I interpret, an additional quarantine for each island visited. THere had been one in effect and that was relaxed a few weeks ago.  So if I do 14 day quarantine on Oahu, then I could fly to say Mauii, and not have to quarantine again?
> 
> DH and I need to go to Honolulu to help with home care for my mother with non-Covid health problem . Hopefully no one subsequently gets covid from flight travel or health treatment facilities. We are thinking of  going to another island for a TBD  few days at the end of our stay.



Once you have completed your 14 day quarantine, you are allowed to travel inter-island quarantine free.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I‘d say there are three risks. One is what you say, becoming infected after the test, before the departure. The other two are related, and those are the sources of false negatives: a bad test, or a test too soon (you are infected, but it’s not detectable yet). The 72 hour “rule” Hawaii is using is a compromise. Ideally you’d be tested and get near immediate results right before getting on the plane. But that’s obviously not feasible. So Hawaii’s authorities know and accept that the 72 hour window will miss some infections and there WILL be an increase in cases on the islands. But if they feel they have the testing and contact tracing tools to meet the demand they can quickly isolate any breakout, so they feel the risk (relative to the economic benefits) is worth it.
> 
> There is nothing magic about 72 hours. If it was 5 days you’d increase the number of infected people making it to Hawaii. If it was 1 day you’d decrease that, but nobody would have test results. So they’re just trying to find a happy compromise.
> 
> From my perspective, and I hope others, from the a day or two before testing until departure, my family will strictly limit doing anything that risks exposure (save for the airport, which obviously can’t be avoided). This will help reduce risk of false negative. I also don’t trust self-tests. I want a professional to obtain the sample. We don’t want to bring infection to Hawaii, and we don’t want to spend our vacation in quarantine or in a hospital in Hawaii!



After reading what you stated here with your educated and experienced background I have been unable to respond or make any reasonable comment for awhile.  I noticed no one else did either in over a day.  I am sure people with different perspectives will react differently to your post.  Since we are over 70 and my husband has high blood pressure and respiratory problems your post confirms our decision that we shouldn't be travelling and going to Hawaii this year.  At this time we are setting our closest goal on September 2021.  Furthermore, your post gives me an insight into why the Hawaiian Residents don't want to give exemptions to the 14 day quarantine for those that get negative tests before they come.  Younger and healtier people with greater risk tolerance certainly will think differently.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> After reading what you stated here with your educated and experienced background I have been unable to respond or make any reasonable comment for awhile.  I noticed no one else did either in over a day.  I am sure people with different perspectives will react differently to your post.  Since we are over 70 and my husband has high blood pressure and respiratory problems your post confirms our decision that we shouldn't be travelling and going to Hawaii this year.  At this time we are setting our closest goal on September 2021.  Furthermore, your post gives me an insight into why the Hawaiian Residents don't want to give exemptions to the 14 day quarantine for those that get negative tests before they come.  Younger and healtier people with greater risk tolerance certainly will think differently.


I do think the greatest risk lies in the flight over. Once in Hawaii you can exercise a lot of control over your exposure by staying away from people, staying outdoors, etc. But on the airplane, well, there's only so much you can do. I'm paying for First, because it seems safer. (Though I note an article by The Points Guy the other day where he declined a free upgrade and instead asked to sit in the back of the plane because he saw there were no seats sold in the last 10 rows.) I also think it pays to eat before boarding and limit time outside the mask to just having something to drink (and can bring straws along so you can remain masked then too). And it probably also pays to obtain a good filtered mask for the flight, one that will both block your excretion but also reduce your risk of inhaling virus. 

That all said, the math is still favorable. Assuming about 15% of those tested are positive, and assuming testing catches 95%, chances are that there will be zero to two people max on any given plane that are infected. And chances are very much in your favor that you won't be sitting within a couple feet of them, which would be necessary if THEY are wearing a mask. And if you are both wearing a mask, even sitting next to an infected person may not be enough to infect you. If you're in economy, and there are three seats, and just two of you in those three, infection risk is near zero, if the rules are followed.


----------



## lynne

Quarantine chronicles a success story









						Quarantine Chronicles: A success story
					






					www.kitv.com


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I do think the greatest risk lies in the flight over. Once in Hawaii you can exercise a lot of control over your exposure by staying away from people, staying outdoors, etc. But on the airplane, well, there's only so much you can do. I'm paying for First, because it seems safer. (Though I note an article by The Points Guy the other day where he declined a free upgrade and instead asked to sit in the back of the plane because he saw there were no seats sold in the last 10 rows.) I also think it pays to eat before boarding and limit time outside the mask to just having something to drink (and can bring straws along so you can remain masked then too). And it probably also pays to obtain a good filtered mask for the flight, one that will both block your excretion but also reduce your risk of inhaling virus.
> 
> That all said, the math is still favorable. Assuming about 15% of those tested are positive, and assuming testing catches 95%, chances are that there will be zero to two people max on any given plane that are infected. And chances are very much in your favor that you won't be sitting within a couple feet of them, which would be necessary if THEY are wearing a mask. And if you are both wearing a mask, even sitting next to an infected person may not be enough to infect you. If you're in economy, and there are three seats, and just two of you in those three, infection risk is near zero, if the rules are followed.



Your post does help reduce some of the fears that we have, however, the effects of this pandemic would make OUR stay there so different from what we are accustomed to and love that for us it is NOT worth the effort or risk.  We are retired we stay in Honolulu because of a number of reasons that have changed due to the virus and we have no idea when they will come back:

- We make a lifestyle change when we go, we don't just go for a short vacation.  We stock up the room with groceries and usually go in late December early January and stay until sometime in April or May.  We have no idea what changes will go on with the virus and travel during a long stay
- We don't get a car and can either walk or take a bus to whatever we want to do.  We won't feel comfortable going on a bus.
- While we love walking outdoors in the nice weather we go to Honolulu to enjoy many indoor and crowded activities; theatre, symphonies, music concerts and shows, indoor restaurants, street festivals, beer festivals, microbrew pubs, shopping

Younger and healtier people who work and can only stay a short time with greater risk tolerance certainly will and certainly should think differently.






-


----------



## jjking42

My daughter caught Covid while living at college. She quarantined and had to test negative twice before she returned to work. 

Once Hawaii lifts quarantine do you think they will discriminate against former Covid patients. 

She is 20 and healthy and all though she may not be immune she certainly has some antibodies. 

Two of my cousins in their 50s got Covid also both recovered fine. My cousins spouse did not catch it even though they lived in the same house and he helped take care of her. So while it is contagious with precautions you can avoid it. 

I want to go to Hawaii in December with my daughter and in April with my cousin. I assume that with a negative test they would be allowed in. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Your post does help reduce some of the fears that we have, however, the effects of this pandemic would make OUR stay there so different from what we are accustomed to and love that for us it is NOT worth the effort or risk.  We are retired we stay in Honolulu because of a number of reasons that have changed due to the virus and we have no idea when they will come back:
> 
> - We make a lifestyle change when we go, we don't just go for a short vacation.  We stock up the room with groceries and usually go in late December early January and stay until sometime in April or May.  We have no idea what changes will go on with the virus and travel during a long stay
> - We don't get a car and can either walk or take a bus to whatever we want to do.  We won't feel comfortable going on a bus.
> - While we love walking outdoors in the nice weather we go to Honolulu to enjoy many indoor and crowded activities; theatre, symphonies, music concerts and shows, indoor restaurants, street festivals, beer festivals, microbrew pubs, shopping
> 
> Younger and healtier people who work and can only stay a short time with greater risk tolerance certainly will and certainly should think differently.
> -


Lot's of unknowns about "the experience" that those of us on the Mainland love about going to Hawaii.. We're actually considering right now buying one of the leasehold units where you own with much the same thought, going for 4-6 months (we'd buy a small car though because I play golf). We're scheduled for two weeks late Oct/Nov in Maui and Oahu (we'll see) and we're wondering about just what you describe... how different will it be, will the things we enjoy doing not be available, etc. But what we really love doing the most is early morning coffee on the Lanai watching the sun rise, and doing the same in the evening. During the day my wife hangs at the beach. Don't need a lot of infrastructure for that.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Lot's of unknowns about "the experience" that those of us on the Mainland love about going to Hawaii.. We're actually considering right now buying one of the leasehold units where you own with much the same thought, going for 4-6 months (we'd buy a small car though because I play golf). We're scheduled for two weeks late Oct/Nov in Maui and Oahu (we'll see) and we're wondering about just what you describe... how different will it be, will the things we enjoy doing not be available, etc. But what we really love doing the most is early morning coffee on the Lanai watching the sun rise, and doing the same in the evening. During the day my wife hangs at the beach. Don't need a lot of infrastructure for that.



We enjoy sitting on a Lanai for Coffee, Drinks, Cut Up Vegtables, and all meals.  We like to walk along the beach but not hang out.  During the mid day from 11-4 it is too hot for us to be on the beach.  We usually walk along the beach in the morning or late afternoon early evening.

We also like to walk down Kalakaua at night.  The street performers, people watching, shops, and hotels make it free entertainment.  There are/were free shows in the Royal Hawaiian Shopping area, International Market and a piano player at the Moana Surfrider nightly.  Free Hula Shows along the Beach a few times a week.  I am sure that is not going to be the same now.  

We usually have so many events that we'd like to attend at theatres, symphonies, music concerts and shows, street festivals, beer festivals, that some nights we have to choose which one to go to out of 2 or 3.  That is not how it is now.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Lot's of unknowns about "the experience" that those of us on the Mainland love about going to Hawaii.. We're actually considering right now buying one of the leasehold units where you own with much the same thought, going for 4-6 months (we'd buy a small car though because I play golf). We're scheduled for two weeks late Oct/Nov in Maui and Oahu (we'll see) and we're wondering about just what you describe... how different will it be, will the things we enjoy doing not be available, etc. But what we really love doing the most is early morning coffee on the Lanai watching the sun rise, and doing the same in the evening. During the day my wife hangs at the beach. Don't need a lot of infrastructure for that.



By the way do to Coronavirus concerns for the first time we have discussed the possibity of getting a car when we do decide to go back since we don't want to go on the bus or take Ubers.  Our Condo does come with a parking spot.


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## lynne

Hawaii Island Major Kim expressed doubt that Hawaii can open without the 14 day quarantine September 1

One of the main issues is being able to differentiate between people who have had negative test results to bypass quarantine and people who are subject to quarantine.   









						State won’t be ready to reopen Sept. 1, Kim says - West Hawaii Today
					

The state isn’t ready to reopen to tourists Sept. 1 and it’s not ready to bring out-of-state college students back to campus Aug. 24, Mayor Harry Kim said in an hour-long interview Thursday.




					www.westhawaiitoday.com


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## csodjd

lynne said:


> Hawaii Island Major Kim expressed doubt that Hawaii can open without the 14 day quarantine September 1
> 
> One of the main issues is being able to differentiate between people who have had negative test results to bypass quarantine and people who are subject to quarantine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> State won’t be ready to reopen Sept. 1, Kim says - West Hawaii Today
> 
> 
> The state isn’t ready to reopen to tourists Sept. 1 and it’s not ready to bring out-of-state college students back to campus Aug. 24, Mayor Harry Kim said in an hour-long interview Thursday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.westhawaiitoday.com


It seems from the most recent order that the state is looking to put the burden/onus on the "host" rather than the visitor to identify and monitor those that are subject to quarantine. But the thing about Hawaii, unlike almost anywhere else in the US, is that they can almost guarantee nobody comes that IS subject to quarantine and can easily get info/name/address of anyone that must be quarantined. As long as it is made relatively easy/reliable to obtain a test result in ~2 days, they should be able to manage that "problem."


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> We enjoy sitting on a Lanai for Coffee, Drinks, Cut Up Vegtables, and all meals.  We like to walk along the beach but not hang out.  During the mid day from 11-4 it is too hot for us to be on the beach.  We usually walk along the beach in the morning or late afternoon early evening.
> 
> We also like to walk down Kalakaua at night.  The street performers, people watching, shops, and hotels make it free entertainment.  There are/were free shows in the Royal Hawaiian Shopping area, International Market and a piano player at the Moana Surfrider nightly.  Free Hula Shows along the Beach a few times a week.  I am sure that is not going to be the same now.
> 
> We usually have so many events that we'd like to attend at theatres, symphonies, music concerts and shows, street festivals, beer festivals, that some nights we have to choose which one to go to out of 2 or 3.  That is not how it is now.


It'll come back. Maybe slowly. But especially in Oahu, which is a destination for people around the world, it'll come back.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Tamaradarann said:


> By the way do to Coronavirus concerns for the first time we have discussed the possibity of getting a car when we do decide to go back since we don't want to go on the bus or take Ubers.  Our Condo does come with a parking spot.



I understand that sentiment, we are traveling the San Diego in a few weeks and originally planned on just using Uber for everything.  But i changed and rented a car as i didn't want to be getting in and out of multiple cars per day...


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## csodjd

1Kflyerguy said:


> I understand that sentiment, we are traveling the San Diego in a few weeks and originally planned on just using Uber for everything.  But i changed and rented a car as i didn't want to be getting in and out of multiple cars per day...


The evidence of infection by way of surface transfer is scant. It seems that a reasonable wipe down of the touch points like steering wheel, keys, door handles, ignition, etc., at the first opportunity, would adequately ensure protection from the car as a source of contagion.  Has to be safer than an Uber, much less multiple Ubers.


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## Tamaradarann

1Kflyerguy said:


> I understand that sentiment, we are traveling the San Diego in a few weeks and originally planned on just using Uber for everything.  But i changed and rented a car as i didn't want to be getting in and out of multiple cars per day...



San Diego like NYC, Honolulu, and Las Vegas are our favorite vacation spots to go without renting a car and walking or using public transportation.  We rarely use Uber in any the places above except if it starts to rain.  In San Diego we stayed in the Gas Lamp District for a week and didn't need a car.  Now with the Coronavirus it would be different.  We are happy being safe at home with our cars being right outside the door of our private house.


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## easyrider

Hawaii will not be ready to re-open on Sept 1. Kind of a bummer. I'm glad I canceled our trip. 

Bill









						Hawaii County mayor: State will not be ready to reopen by Sept. 1
					

“The mission is to protect the people of the state of Hawaii. The system is not ready,” Kim said.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## CPNY

easyrider said:


> Hawaii will not be ready to re-open on Sept 1. Kind of a bummer. I'm glad I canceled our trip.
> 
> Bill
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii County mayor: State will not be ready to reopen by Sept. 1
> 
> 
> “The mission is to protect the people of the state of Hawaii. The system is not ready,” Kim said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com


Very sad, this may have been my year to go to Hawaii


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## csodjd

easyrider said:


> Hawaii will not be ready to re-open on Sept 1. Kind of a bummer. I'm glad I canceled our trip.
> 
> Bill
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii County mayor: State will not be ready to reopen by Sept. 1
> 
> 
> “The mission is to protect the people of the state of Hawaii. The system is not ready,” Kim said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com


Not so fast. Apparently the Hawaii Mayor is the odd-man-out in a lot of issues. He and the Governor don't see eye to eye quite often. So I'd take his comments with a grain of salt. I remain cautiously optimistic that another month will help. Things happen so fast with COVID.


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## slip

csodjd said:


> Not so fast. Apparently the Hawaii Mayor is the odd-man-out in a lot of issues. He and the Governor don't see eye to eye quite often. So I'd take his comments with a grain of salt. I remain cautiously optimistic that another month will help. Things happen so fast with COVID.



Yes, no change has been announced but I don’t know how out of step Mayor Kim is with the rest of the Mayors. From what I have been hearing he may not be alone on this and I would definitely not be surprised if this gets extended through September.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> Yes, no change has been announced but I don’t know how out of step Mayor Kim is with the rest of the Mayors. From what I have been hearing he may not be alone on this and I would definitely not be surprised if this gets extended through September.


Well, it certainly could. But I'll be the hotel managers will really start getting annoyed, if they aren't already. Pretty hard to get ready to open and have the goal posts keep moving. I'd assume that IF Sept. 1 is going to slip to Oct 1, they'll have to announce that in the next week or two. 

However, his reason -- because they can't tell who must quarantine from who doesn't have to, is really a pretty weak argument since almost everyone coming over will probably have received a negative test... its not like they have a flood of people coming over to quarantine. And if that's the concern, they won't be able to open until a vaccine is widespread, which is probably a year away.


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## slip

csodjd said:


> Well, it certainly could. But I'll be the hotel managers will really start getting annoyed, if they aren't already. Pretty hard to get ready to open and have the goal posts keep moving. I'd assume that IF Sept. 1 is going to slip to Oct 1, they'll have to announce that in the next week or two.
> 
> However, his reason -- because they can't tell who must quarantine from who doesn't have to, is really a pretty weak argument since almost everyone coming over will probably have received a negative test... its not like they have a flood of people coming over to quarantine. And if that's the concern, they won't be able to open until a vaccine is widespread, which is probably a year away.



Another big announcement that could affect the decision is if the federal unemployment benefits are extended and that will be announced soon since they expire at the end of July.

It doesn’t really matter if his argument is weak or strong, he can decide what he wants and that will be the end of it. He can’t run for re-election and he may not care what the hotel managers think if he thinks he is acting in the best interests of the citizens of Hawaii.


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## lynne

This certainly doesn't help the case for opening:









						Investigator: Visitors are skipping out on quarantine rules by going inter-island
					

"It's a shame how many people are doing that and I think a very small percentage of them are getting arrested."




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Well, it certainly could. But I'll be the hotel managers will really start getting annoyed, if they aren't already. Pretty hard to get ready to open and have the goal posts keep moving. I'd assume that IF Sept. 1 is going to slip to Oct 1, they'll have to announce that in the next week or two.
> 
> However, his reason -- because they can't tell who must quarantine from who doesn't have to, is really a pretty weak argument since almost everyone coming over will probably have received a negative test... its not like they have a flood of people coming over to quarantine. And if that's the concern, they won't be able to open until a vaccine is widespread, which is probably a year away.



That is true they DON'T HAVE a flood of people coming over to quaratine right now, however, if they lift the quaratine with a negative test there will be alot more people coming over and some of them will NOT have negative tests, and with so many people coming it will be impossible to identify those that should be quarantined.  That is why I suggested that they ANNOUCE and then IMPLEMENT a policy to escort to a central guarded location anyone who didn't test negative for the Coronavirus.  I believe the threat of that with no possibility of violation will reduce if not eliminate entirely all those that intend to violate the 14 day quarantine order.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Well, it certainly could. But I'll be the hotel managers will really start getting annoyed, if they aren't already. Pretty hard to get ready to open and have the goal posts keep moving. I'd assume that IF Sept. 1 is going to slip to Oct 1, they'll have to announce that in the next week or two.



This is an interesting thought.  A friend of ours who lives in Honolulu correctly told us that the Halekolani Hotel was staying closed until sometime next year, then he incorrectly, at least for now, said that the Hilton Hawaiian Village, which is where we usually stay, was staying closed until January 1.  When I heard that my reaction was that the Top Management of the Hilton Hawaiian Village in concert with Central HGVC had had ENOUGH of the wait another month, wait another month that the Governor has been dictating.  Furthermore, I don't know how the pay situation is for the Personnel at the Hilton Hawaiian Village.  I would assume the hourly union employees have been laid off and are collecting unemployment insurance, however, the Managerial Employees may have been kept on the payroll since April when the HHV closed.  I would immagine that some of the Managerial Employees would lose a considerable amount of income being on unemployement insurance even with the $600 surcharge.  How long could and would HGVC and Hilton Hotels keep Managerial Employees on the dole for doing nothing?  If you are making those decisions you think well another month is OK, but another 3 months, 6 months ...?


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> This is an interesting thought.  A friend of ours who lives in Honolulu correctly told us that the Halekolani Hotel was staying closed until sometime next year, then he incorrectly, at least for now, said that the Hilton Hawaiian Village, which is where we usually stay, was staying closed until January 1.  When I heard that my reaction was that the Top Management of the Hilton Hawaiian Village in concert with Central HGVC had had ENOUGH of the wait another month, wait another month that the Governor has been dictating.  Furthermore, I don't know how the pay situation is for the Personnel at the Hilton Hawaiian Village.  I would assume the hourly union employees have been laid off and are collecting unemployment insurance, however, the Managerial Employees may have been kept on the payroll since April when the HHV closed.  I would immagine that some of the Managerial Employees would lose a considerable amount of income being on unemployement insurance even with the $600 surcharge.  How long could and would HGVC and Hilton Hotels keep Managerial Employees on the dole for doing nothing?  If you are making those decisions you think well another month is OK, but another 3 months, 6 months ...?


Since the Governor appears to be moving in monthly increments, about monthly, HHV and others like it (that is, big enough organizations) are probably trying to keep themselves able to open in 3-4 weeks time, and not “so” shut down that it would take them 6-8 weeks to reopen. But that would cost more to be sure. And one must wonder if they really care all that much that they be open on day 1 when tourism can return. Perhaps they just decide that, once the Governor gives the go ahead, they’ll plan to be open within 4 weeks of that open date since the number of visitors arriving on day 1, or even day 7, will be small.


----------



## DannyTS

Tamaradarann said:


> This is an interesting thought.  A friend of ours who lives in Honolulu correctly told us that the Halekolani Hotel was staying closed until sometime next year, then he incorrectly, at least for now, said that the Hilton Hawaiian Village, which is where we usually stay, was staying closed until January 1.  When I heard that my reaction was that the Top Management of the Hilton Hawaiian Village in concert with Central HGVC had had ENOUGH of the wait another month, wait another month that the Governor has been dictating.  Furthermore, I don't know how the pay situation is for the Personnel at the Hilton Hawaiian Village.  I would assume the hourly union employees have been laid off and are collecting unemployment insurance, however, the Managerial Employees may have been kept on the payroll since April when the HHV closed.  I would immagine that some of the Managerial Employees would lose a considerable amount of income being on unemployement insurance even with the $600 surcharge.  How long could and would HGVC and Hilton Hotels keep Managerial Employees on the dole for doing nothing?  If you are making those decisions you think well another month is OK, but another 3 months, 6 months ...?


It may also be related  to the local taxes. I do not know the rules but it seems logical that a hotel that is closed, without visitors and income should pay a lower rate. They may end up burning less if they close them for few months than if they keep them open for just few visitors.


----------



## luv_maui

Tamaradarann said:


> That is true they DON'T HAVE a flood of people coming over to quaratine right now, however, if they lift the quaratine with a negative test there will be alot more people coming over and some of them will NOT have negative tests, and with so many people coming it will be impossible to identify those that should be quarantined.  That is why I suggested that they ANNOUCE and then IMPLEMENT a policy to escort to a central guarded location anyone who didn't test negative for the Coronavirus.  I believe the threat of that with no possibility of violation will reduce if not eliminate entirely all those that intend to violate the 14 day quarantine order.


looks like the essence of your idea is being implemented in Bahamas.  one Is allowed to entered as long as:









						U.S. travelers can go to the Bahamas again -- but there's a catch - The Points Guy
					

After closing its borders to U.S. travelers last week, the Bahamas changed its mind yet again. Tourists can visit -- but only after going through a 14-day quarantine.




					thepointsguy.com
				




“Tourists are now expected to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival at their own expense in a government facility — as well as taking a PCR COVID-19 test at the end of quarantine. However, they aren’t required to take a test before coming to the country.“


----------



## Clifbell

I have had one Hawaii vacation postponed in May due to the Quarantine that I had planned for a year.... I now have a new one scheduled for me and my 3 adults kids ... But now I have come up with a plan B .... No flying.... I live in Arizona, so maybe I should just do an out of the way vacation in California, Oregon, or Washington?  I created a video to discuss the options which can be found at 



.  I am looking for any ideas,  I am thinking about out of the way places and off peak.


----------



## travelove

Clifbell said:


> I have had one Hawaii vacation postponed in May due to the Quarantine that I had planned for a year.... I now have a new one scheduled for me and my 3 adults kids ... But now I have come up with a plan B .... No flying.... I live in Arizona, so maybe I should just do an out of the way vacation in California, Oregon, or Washington?  I created a video to discuss the options which can be found at
> 
> 
> 
> .  I am looking for any ideas,  I am thinking about out of the way places and off peak.


Love your video.  Goodluck wherever you decide to stay!


----------



## Clifbell

travelove said:


> Love your video.  Goodluck wherever you decide to stay!


It is certainly a challenging time to travel.  The choices seem so different than just six months ago.  But the ocean is still beautiful.


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## csodjd

Clifbell said:


> It is certainly a challenging time to travel.  The choices seem so different than just six months ago.  But the ocean is still beautiful.


I’ll be taking my first endeavor a week from Saturday as I fly from LAX to Charlotte, then drive in a rental car to Pinehurst. I’m not very worried about it (my wife is). My main concern is the challenge of remaining masked for about 7 hours airport to airport.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I’ll be taking my first endeavor a week from Saturday as I fly from LAX to Charlotte, then drive in a rental car to Pinehurst. I’m not very worried about it (my wife is). My main concern is the challenge of remaining masked for about 7 hours airport to airport.



You have to change planes?   That is truly a bummer.  I guess you can take your mask off for eating and if you need to blow your nose.  One of the chalenges that I have with the Coronavirus is that I have a deviatied septus and a rinitus condition and my nose runs quite a bit particularly in the cold or also cool air conditioning.  So that I need to wash my hands or use disinfectant so I can blow my nose.  At times it runs so much that I need to do it many times in a hour.  I do take antihistamines to slow it down which it does however, sometimes it still just runs less.


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## DavidnRobin

Or don’t go!
Maui/Hawaii’s population is relatively SARS-Cov-2 naive. This means from a viral transmission standpoint, it is just a matter of time for a outbreak unless a vaccine is successful. This is how viruses work. This is more about the people living on Maui/Hawaii than an ‘inconvenience’ of not vacationing. Herd immunity won’t help as Maui/Hawaii is isolated - think Native Americans when Europe ‘discovered’ them. Europeans had herd immunity against diseases that the naive native population did not have.
#Science


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> You have to change planes?   That is truly a bummer.  I guess you can take your mask off for eating and if you need to blow your nose.  One of the chalenges that I have with the Coronavirus is that I have a deviatied septus and a rinitus condition and my nose runs quite a bit particularly in the cold or also cool air conditioning.  So that I need to wash my hands or use disinfectant so I can blow my nose.  At times it runs so much that I need to do it many times in a hour.  I do take antihistamines to slow it down which it does however, sometimes it still just runs less.


No plane change... I’m in LA. Fortunately I don’t have those issues with my nose. I’ll probably take a shot of Afrin just to be sure I can easily and comfortably breath through it with the mask on. 

One of the interesting new findings is that most infection occurs through the nose. So as best I can, I’ll use a straw to drink and keep my mask over my nose even if/when exposing my mouth. I’m monitoring seating. I’m in first row, window, FC, with nobody next to me. I’m scheduling a test 5 days before I go, and upon return.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> No plane change... I’m in LA. Fortunately I don’t have those issues with my nose. I’ll probably take a shot of Afrin just to be sure I can easily and comfortably breath through it with the mask on.
> 
> One of the interesting new findings is that most infection occurs through the nose. So as best I can, I’ll use a straw to drink and keep my mask over my nose even if/when exposing my mouth. I’m monitoring seating. I’m in first row, window, FC, with nobody next to me. I’m scheduling a test 5 days before I go, and upon return.



The fact that most infections comes through the nose makes sense since this is such a respiratory attacking virus.   Why are you scheduling tests 5 days before and upon return, is there a 14 day quarantine in North Carolina?


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> The fact that most infections comes through the nose makes sense since this is such a respiratory attacking virus.   Why are you scheduling tests 5 days before and upon return, is there a 14 day quarantine in North Carolina?


No, much more pragmatic reasons. My step-daughter won't let my wife/her mom hold her just turned 1 granddaughter unless we've quarantined for 14 days, which is pretty much impossible in my life. Just one trip to the market and she says no seeing the baby! So we're taking advantage of my being gone for 11 days. We're both going to test, quarantine for a few days before I leave until the test results, and that will allow Pam about 10 days of playing with her granddaughter for the first time since Feb. And I'll test when I get home to put my wife at ease that I didn't get infected on my trip. Trust me, the Gov. of Hawaii is no match for my step-daughter when it comes to staying safe from COVID! There would be ZERO COVID in Hawaii if she was Governor.


----------



## amy241

DavidnRobin said:


> Or don’t go!
> Maui/Hawaii’s population is relatively SARS-Cov-2 naive. This means from a viral transmission standpoint, it is just a matter of time for a outbreak unless a vaccine is successful. This is how viruses work. This is more about the people living on Maui/Hawaii than an ‘inconvenience’ of not vacationing. Herd immunity won’t help as Maui/Hawaii is isolated - think Native Americans when Europe ‘discovered’ them. Europeans had herd immunity against diseases that the naive native population did not have.
> #Science
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



They have the same immunity that everyone else has to this - none. Theirs is no different.


----------



## klpca

Well I just used eplus to switch our II coded ocean view unit (Ko Olina)  into a unit at Timber Lodge in October. I still have the SFX week on the Big Island and when I have the patience to deal with it, I will call them and see what I can do with that week. In reading the recent news in Hawaii it just doesn't bode well for our trip in mid-September, and with the way the virus is going at this point we are also getting skittish about the time on the plane. I rescheduled this trip about two months ago based upon how things were progressing in countries that were further along in dealing with the virus than the US, but it has become clear that our trends are not going to mirror theirs. Oh well, at this point flexibility is key and our vacation is a true first world problem. On to plan B.


----------



## Luanne

We pulled the plug on our plans to go back to Maui in March 2021 and put in a request for March 2022.  We trade with Trading Places Maui since we own at Maui Hill.  I talked to the owner/manager and asked her if they are open. She said the rental side of the resort is closed down, but the timeshare portion is open.  They have very few guests, only those who traveled inter island, or those willing to quarantine for 14 days.  She said one couple who quarantined, had several other weeks with them, then ended up renting a house as they didn't want to return to California.  She told me they did have a week for us March 2021, but we let that go.  She found one week, end of March 2022 so we took that.  I also have another request in for a consecutive week.  When I got the confirmation email there are several things in the dealing with the pandemic.


----------



## Tucsonadventurer

We have 2 months scheduled for Jan/ Feb. I would go if it was quarantine bubble but being from AZ we will most likely be excluded.. My husband couldn't handle 2 weeks in a condo .


----------



## slip

January, February and March are still a long way off. There will probably be a lot of changes by then.


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

I am canceling our plans for Oct,.  I had mostly just left the reservations in place in case things stabilized,  but everything is going in the wrong direction.  Now just have to decide if i try for Spring or fall next year..

Everything is in such a state of flux that you only only make a guess about the state of the travel industry and personal comfort levels..


----------



## Tamaradarann

1Kflyerguy said:


> I am canceling our plans for Oct,.  I had mostly just left the reservations in place in case things stabilized,  but everything is going in the wrong direction.  Now just have to decide if i try for Spring or fall next year..
> 
> Everything is in such a state of flux that you only only make a guess about the state of the travel industry and personal comfort levels..



We just cancelled our plans for November/December.   We still have January 2021 reservations, however, they are just place holders for HGVC reservations and points right now.  We are looking at Fall 2021 as our earliest date to go back to Honolulu.  Late Spring and Summer on Long Island is the best time of the year so we don't need to go to Hawaii.  Hopefully by Fall 2021 there will be an effective vaccine for this virus and things will get back to something that resembles normalcy.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> We just cancelled our plans for November/December.   We still have January 2021 reservations, however, they are just place holders for HGVC reservations and points right now.  We are looking at Fall 2021 as our earliest date to go back to Honolulu.  Late Spring and Summer on Long Island is the best time of the year so we don't need to go to Hawaii.  Hopefully by Fall 2021 there will be an effective vaccine for this virus and things will get back to something that resembles normalcy.


We're still holding onto our late Oct-Nov reservations because, why not? No penalty for waiting. I figure if the Gov is going to extend the Sept 1 date to Oct 1, that should be announced this coming week. I don't think he'll wait until the end of the month and leave hotels, etc., hanging that way. My wife had a COVID test on Wed this week here just north of Los Angeles, and had results in under 24 hours, so at least THAT appears to be working better. With COVID, 30 days makes a big difference, in either direction. I expect Oahu to be < 50 cases/day, or even better, by the end of August. Cautiously optimistic, but watching carefully.


----------



## Blues

Tamaradarann said:


> We just cancelled our plans for November/December.   We still have January 2021 reservations, however, they are just place holders for HGVC reservations and points right now.  We are looking at Fall 2021 as our earliest date to go back to Honolulu.



We're in a similar situation.  Made a couple of Big Island reservations when HGVC was offering for no fee a couple of months ago.  Then a couple of weeks ago moved them to mid-April.  Hopeful that April may be doable, but we can move them back to any date in 2021.  Will monitor the situation. 

Funny, when I moved them I had to acknowledge the quarantine situation in Hawaii, and that we couldn't use a timeshare on the BI for quarantine.  We have no intention to use it if the quarantine is still in effect.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> We're still holding onto our late Oct-Nov reservations because, why not? No penalty for waiting. I figure if the Gov is going to extend the Sept 1 date to Oct 1, that should be announced this coming week. I don't think he'll wait until the end of the month and leave hotels, etc., hanging that way. My wife had a COVID test on Wed this week here just north of Los Angeles, and had results in under 24 hours, so at least THAT appears to be working better. With COVID, 30 days makes a big difference, in either direction. I expect Oahu to be < 50 cases/day, or even better, by the end of August. Cautiously optimistic, but watching carefully.



I think you are correct, the Governor should make the announcement soon if the quarantine will be moved to October, which I think it will. After that who knows, depends on the numbers.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Blues said:


> We're in a similar situation.  Made a couple of Big Island reservations when HGVC was offering for no fee a couple of months ago.  Then a couple of weeks ago moved them to mid-April.  Hopeful that April may be doable, but we can move them back to any date in 2021.  Will monitor the situation.
> 
> Funny, when I moved them I had to acknowledge the quarantine situation in Hawaii, and that we couldn't use a timeshare on the BI for quarantine.  We have no intention to use it if the quarantine is still in effect.



What do you mean "when I moved them I had to acknowledge the quarantine situation in Hawaii, and that we couldn't use a timeshare on the BI for quarantine."  Did you do this on line?  I have moved reservations around on line in early 2021 without having to do anything that I haven't done before when I change reservations.


----------



## Blues

Tamaradarann said:


> What do you mean "when I moved them I had to acknowledge the quarantine situation in Hawaii, and that we couldn't use a timeshare on the BI for quarantine."  Did you do this on line?  I have moved reservations around on line in early 2021 without having to do anything that I haven't done before when I change reservations.



Yep, I changed the reservation online (with HGVC, reservations are normally only changeable for free if you had made the reservation online and do the change online).  And before the website would let me confirm the change, I had to click through a couple of disclaimers about the quarantine.


----------



## PigsDad

You know, I think the admins should change the title of this thread to not only include a _month_, but a _*year *_as well.  Right now, given how the pandemic is progressing and the attitude of the Hawaiians and their government leaders, I would not bet  any significant amount of money that Hawaii will be open to tourists in September, *2021*.  Anyone else fee this way?

Kurt


----------



## Ken555

PigsDad said:


> You know, I think the admins should change the title of this thread to not only include a _month_, but a _*year *_as well. Right now, given how the pandemic is progressing and the attitude of the Hawaiians and their government leaders, I would not bet any significant amount of money that Hawaii will be open to tourists in September, *2021*. Anyone else fee this way?
> 
> Kurt



Yeah, I believe I posted that belief back in March or April...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## csodjd

slip said:


> I think you are correct, the Governor should make the announcement soon if the quarantine will be moved to October, which I think it will. After that who knows, depends on the numbers.


Given that cases are still rising, as apparently the infection rate is also rising (8.5% today I believe), and given the incubation of up to two weeks, its getting quite hard to imagine that over the next week numbers will drop to a sufficient degree that they feel ready to open. It seems that the Oahu residents shot themselves in the foot, or at least shot those of us that want to come visit Hawaii in the foot. That said, do remember that you have to have a negative PCR test to come, so it’s not like it’s just “open.”


----------



## jabberwocky

csodjd said:


> Given that cases are still rising, as apparently the infection rate is also rising (8.5% today I believe), and given the incubation of up to two weeks, its getting quite hard to imagine that over the next week numbers will drop to a sufficient degree that they feel ready to open. It seems that the Oahu residents shot themselves in the foot, or at least shot those of us that want to come visit Hawaii in the foot. That said, do remember that you have to have a negative PCR test to come, so it’s not like it’s just “open.”


I agree that the Sept 1 date will be pushed back and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it moved again. I do find it curious that with respect to inter island travel the quarantine wasn’t established for those going to Oahu.

What is the justification for this?  Is it because once you have widespread community transmission (as seems to be the case on Oahu) the rationale for a quarantine period goes out the window?  

Could this potentially be opening the door to a situation where transpacific travel to Oahu is permitted (still with a PCR test ), but other islands still have a 14 day quarantine requirement?


----------



## travelhacker

I can't understand why they aren't willing to re-open with a negative test. Sure, there is a very slight chance that someone could become infected between when they take the test and when they arrive, but I would think it would do enough to mitigate risk.

Right now, there are more active cases as a percentage of population than a good chunk of states (mine included - Colorado). That will only get worse over the next couple of weeks. I really hope this gives them the wake-up call that they need.

If there is established community spread (like they've been seeing for > 30 days) in Hawaii, the limited number of tourists that all would have had negative tests likely wouldn't add to the numbers in any meaningful way (this is assuming that the number of tourists will be very limited -- even after 2-3 months of allowing tourists to bypass quarantine with negative tests, I've got to think arrivals will be down to 20-30% of "normal" levels). 

From what I have read it seems like Governor Ige's moves pinned all of their hopes on limiting spread by limiting tourism. This gave people a false sense of security that since the islands were mostly COVID free they could ease up. I remember around 30 days ago, there were 2 different yoga gyms that had outbreaks. From the article today there were more than 10 employees at a state building who tested positive. There was another cluster related to a strip club. 

Rather than blaming tourists they should have been sensible and limited gatherings indoors severely. If they really want to take COVID seriously, wouldn't it make sense to have activities like Yoga outside? Or you know, completely shut down strip clubs? Also, I work in government and we have done everything possible to follow social distancing guidelines. We have had a few employees test positive, but because we have been very, very strict, I am not aware of another employee catching it from another at work.


----------



## lynne

travelhacker said:


> I can't understand why they aren't willing to re-open with a negative test. Sure, there is a very slight chance that someone could become infected between when they take the test and when they arrive, but I would think it would do enough to mitigate risk.
> 
> Right now, there are more active cases as a percentage of population than a good chunk of states (mine included - Colorado). That will only get worse over the next couple of weeks. I really hope this gives them the wake-up call that they need.
> 
> If there is established community spread (like they've been seeing for > 30 days) in Hawaii, the limited number of tourists that all would have had negative tests likely wouldn't add to the numbers in any meaningful way (this is assuming that the number of tourists will be very limited -- even after 2-3 months of allowing tourists to bypass quarantine with negative tests, I've got to think arrivals will be down to 20-30% of "normal" levels).
> 
> From what I have read it seems like Governor Ige's moves pinned all of their hopes on limiting spread by limiting tourism. This gave people a false sense of security that since the islands were mostly COVID free they could ease up. I remember around 30 days ago, there were 2 different yoga gyms that had outbreaks. From the article today there were more than 10 employees at a state building who tested positive. There was another cluster related to a strip club.
> 
> Rather than blaming tourists they should have been sensible and limited gatherings indoors severely. If they really want to take COVID seriously, wouldn't it make sense to have activities like Yoga outside? Or you know, completely shut down strip clubs? Also, I work in government and we have done everything possible to follow social distancing guidelines. We have had a few employees test positive, but because we have been very, very strict, I am not aware of another employee catching it from another at work.


On Hawai'i Island our circumstances appear to be different from Oahu.   The majority of our new cases are travel related as well as one of the Hawaiian Air Trainees who came back to the island from Oahu and tested positive.   These are not visitors, but both returning residents and workers.  The idea that mainland travel to Hawaii will continue to put the resident population at increased risk will most likely extend quarantine requirements well into the fall.  









						Traveling Physician, Nurse Meant For KCH Test Positive For Coronavirus | Big Island Now
					

The two employees, a locum physician and a nurse traveler, tested positive during mandatory pre-employment testing prior to beginning work at the hospital.




					bigislandnow.com


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## travelhacker

Colorado (where I live) is a big state for tourism. There are a number of mountain towns that probably have tourism numbers that are on par with many areas of Hawaii. They have been reasonably successful at limiting the spread (Summit, Pitkin, and Eagle Counties) despite tourist numbers that are probably only down about 30% from previous summers. This is particularly impressive given that some of the earliest cases in the US were in these mountain communities. Fortunately, they were able to get community spread almost completely under control through May and reopened around June 1.

Many people figured it would be an abject disaster but because of very strong efforts to limit community spread it has been very manageable. For example, EVERYONE wears masks...stores limit drastically the amount of people that can be indoors, almost all dining is done outdoors, etc. These were all efforts that were made to establish a culture that would prevent the spread of COVID-19. Signs are EVERYWHERE that remind people of local ordinances designed to prevent spread and it has worked very well.

I feel like the current situation would have been much more manageable if there were stronger efforts to establish a culture of "Living with COVID" like some other states have done (some have done so a lot better than others).

In many ways because the focus in Hawaii seemed to be entirely on tourism, it felt like there was a false sense of security.


----------



## GaryDouglas

The Maui Times as of the 8th has 31 people on Oahu dying from the inception of this pandemic.  Based upon an estimated population of Oahu from 2012, that means 3.175X10 to the -5th of that county's population has died.  This is a very small number as far a percentages go, even if anualized.  And if Oahu's population has increased since 2012, that number is even smaller still.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Blues said:


> Yep, I changed the reservation online (with HGVC, reservations are normally only changeable for free if you had made the reservation online and do the change online).  And before the website would let me confirm the change, I had to click through a couple of disclaimers about the quarantine.



You are right that is now what the disclaimer says.  I have changed reservations and clicked those disclaimers thousands of times so that, while I read them once perhaps years ago, I click them without reading them almost all the time.  Well I am not going to keep those reservations I just change to today anyway so I guess it doesn't matter that I must quarantine, get a Covid-19 test, or not quarantine in a timeshare on the Island of Hawaii which I agree to with the click.


----------



## csodjd

GaryDouglas said:


> The Maui Times as of the 8th has 31 people on Oahu dying from the inception of this pandemic.  Based upon an estimated population of Oahu from 2012, that means 3.175X10 to the -5th of that county's population has died.  This is a very small number as far a percentages go, even if anualized.  And if Oahu's population has increased since 2012, that number is even smaller still.


I don‘t think their concern is the fatality rate. I think it’s the hospital capacity. if someone is going to die from the disease, well, there’s little that can be done. But nobody want’s people dying because there was no room at the hospital for them, or they didn’t have enough necessary equipment to keep them alive. And they don’t want others — MI, stroke, car accident, etc. — dying because COVID had the ICU filled. They know a certain percentage of those that test positive will end up in the hospital and a perecentage of those in the ICU. So I think it’s all about keeping the ”new cases” below the levels necessary to ensure their hospitals can operate adequately.


----------



## csodjd

Dire warnings by hospitals fueled decision to reinstate some COVID-19 orders
					

"If we start to get two or three or more hospitals that are maxing out their ICU capacity that is really a problem for us."




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


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## GaryDouglas

I think it's been over two months since there were any equipment issues throughout the country. If they have an equipment problem now, it due to mismanagement. My daughter, who works in a cath lab, told me recently that a person was in for stents. Normally they would be out within 24 hours, but because they tested positive for the virus (asymptomatic), they are hospitalized until further notice (14 days) even though they continue to be asymptomatic. Situations like this fill beds unnecessarily. And it sounds like Oahu doesn't have enough facilities for a hundred year event such as COVID. We are still in what I call 'The fog of war' time where we don't know what's really going on. The news media just about never breaks down the data in any meaningful way like, how many are affected by age groups, how many graduate from observation, to hospitalization to ICU. All I hear is the sky is falling all the time without any way to evaluate things logically. It's almost like they just want to keep everyone in a frenzy for some reason. Hmmm, I appear to be venting...


----------



## Kapolei

GaryDouglas said:


> I think it's been over two months since there were any equipment issues throughout the country. If they have an equipment problem now, it due to mismanagement. My daughter, who works in a cath lab, told me recently that a person was in for stents. Normally they would be out within 24 hours, but because they tested positive for the virus (asymptomatic), they are hospitalized until further notice (14 days) even though they continue to be asymptomatic. Situations like this fill beds unnecessarily. And it sounds like Oahu doesn't have enough facilities for a hundred year event such as COVID. We are still in what I call 'The fog of war' time where we don't know what's really going on. The news media just about never breaks down the data in any meaningful way like, how many are affected by age groups, how many graduate from observation, to hospitalization to ICU. All I hear is the sky is falling all the time without any way to evaluate things logically. It's almost like they just want to keep everyone in a frenzy for some reason. Hmmm, I appear to be venting...



We have some very exceptional medical professionals here on Oahu.  They are not playing politics with the situation.  The problem right now is where we are on the curve.  We are on an Island with no herd immunity.  When this thing started, I watched a webinar from one of the top medical institutions on pandemics.  The science behind the spread of a virus like this is pretty solid.  I had some routine blood panels scheduled. Very recently, my physician told me not to come in right now. It can wait.  My physician does not care about politics.  We are at the edge of a cliff right now.  It could either way.  Yes, they will respond.  But any spike in death rate will hit us hard.  It is the nature of living in an island community.


----------



## Kapolei

PigsDad said:


> You know, I think the admins should change the title of this thread to not only include a _month_, but a _*year *_as well.  Right now, given how the pandemic is progressing and the attitude of the Hawaiians and their government leaders, I would not bet  any significant amount of money that Hawaii will be open to tourists in September, *2021*.  Anyone else fee this way?
> 
> Kurt



We have over a million people on Oahu from all ethnicities (many mixed), religions, and political persuasions.   We got all sorts of opinions here on what is happening and what should be done next.  Much of the population is not Hawaiian.  You should also know, that Hawaiians are not a monolithic group.  There are all ranges of opinions and political viewpoints among Hawaiians.  Just like the non-Hawaiians that live here. 

If you are trying to assess what the local sentiment is as to not reopening for a year,  I think there is too much uncertainty to project this out.  The federal unemployment benefit was just extended.  So for many, that is immediate relief.  I am sure there are bigger behind the scene issues like the survivability of Hawaiian Airlines and the carrying costs of empty hotels that will come into play.  There is the possibility of a vaccine.  And there are plans being considered to lift the quarantine through testing.  Believe me, the Issues are lot bigger than what you think are the attitudes of native Hawaiians.


----------



## PigsDad

Kapolei said:


> We have over a million people on Oahu from all ethnicities (many mixed), religions, and political persuasions.   We got all sorts of opinions here on what is happening and what should be done next.  Much of the population is not Hawaiian.  You should also know, that Hawaiians are not a monolithic group.  There are all ranges of opinions and political viewpoints among Hawaiians.  Just like the non-Hawaiians that live here.
> 
> If you are trying to assess what the local sentiment is as to not reopening for a year,  I think there is too much uncertainty to project this out.  The federal unemployment benefit was just extended.  So for many, that is immediate relief.  I am sure there are bigger behind the scene issues like the survivability of Hawaiian Airlines and the carrying costs of empty hotels that will come into play.  There is the possibility of a vaccine.  And there are plans being considered to lift the quarantine through testing.  Believe me, the Issues are lot bigger than what you think are the attitudes of *native Hawaiians*.


It is a complicated issue, but I just wanted to clarify that I was referring to all citizens of Hawaii when I said Hawaiians, not just native Hawaiians.  Just like I consider myself a Coloradoan, even though I am not originally from Colorado but I live here now.

Kurt


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## Ralph Sir Edward

Question. Why should I visit Hawaii when there is an major outbreak of COVID-19 there? 

It's not just a matter of Hawaii not letting me go. Why should we let residents of Hawaii in, currrently? (Think of all the people New York are quarantining. . . )


----------



## Kapolei

PigsDad said:


> It is a complicated issue, but I just wanted to clarify that I was referring to all citizens of Hawaii when I said Hawaiians, not just native Hawaiians.  Just like I consider myself a Coloradoan, even though I am not originally from Colorado but I live here now.
> 
> Kurt



This is why you have me confused.  Hawaiians are a group of people that once had their own country.  Like the Irish or Italians.  I don’t know why you can’t follow standard usage so we can have a meaningful conversation.


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## Luanne

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Question. Why should I visit Hawaii when there is an major outbreak of COVID-19 there?
> 
> It's not just a matter of Hawaii not letting me go. Why should we let residents of Hawaii in, currrently? (Think of all the people New York are quarantining. . . )


I'm a little confused.  You said "Why should we let residents of Hawaii in, currently?"  Who is "we"?  Where are "we" letting them into?  The continental U.S?  Back into Hawaii?  If it's back into Hawaii don't you think these might be residents returning home? And they are under the same 14 day quarantine as anyone else entering the state, unless they are exempt.  So please explain what you meant.


----------



## PigsDad

Kapolei said:


> This is why you have me confused.  Hawaiians are a group of people that once had their own country.  Like the Irish or Italians.  I don’t know why you can’t follow standard usage so we can have a meaningful conversation.


Ok, so what is the term when referring to those who live in Hawaii?  Those who live in California are Californians.  Those who live in New York are New Yorkers.  Those who live in Colorado are Coloradoans.  Those who live in Hawaii are ???  Since I don't live there, I'm just asking.

Kurt


----------



## Kapolei

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Question. Why should I visit Hawaii when there is an major outbreak of COVID-19 there?
> 
> It's not just a matter of Hawaii not letting me go. Why should we let residents of Hawaii in, currrently? (Think of all the people New York are quarantining. . . )



Everyone should be clear, these quarantines have nothing to do with residency.  To even exist in our nation, they must apply equally to all.


----------



## Kapolei

PigsDad said:


> You know, I think the admins should change the title of this thread to not only include a _month_, but a _*year *_as well.  Right now, given how the pandemic is progressing and the attitude of the *[people of Hawaii]* and their government leaders, I would not bet  any significant amount of money that Hawaii will be open to tourists in September, *2021*.  Anyone else fee this way?
> 
> Kurt



This might work.   I can suggest others.  Please understand, I am not grammar police.  I am informing you of language usage that has a deep significance for large group of people.  You are not required to give respect to that.


----------



## PigsDad

Kapolei said:


> This might work.   I can suggest others.  Please understand, I am not grammar police.  I am informing you of language usage that has a deep significance for large group of people.  *You are not required to give respect to that*.


No disrespect intended -- not sure why you ever thought that?   I simply used the term Hawaiians and then clarified in my followup post what I meant by that after your post.  I can certainly use "people of Hawaii" in the future; no problem.

Kurt


----------



## Kapolei

PigsDad said:


> No disrespect intended -- not sure why you ever thought that?   I simply used the term Hawaiians and then clarified in my followup post what I meant by that after your post.  I can certainly use "people of Hawaii" in the future; no problem.
> 
> Kurt



I apologize for single-ing you out on this.  It is a common error often made with no intent to disrespect.  The other common error is for people to watch and participate in media and attach conclusions about how an entire group of people stand on an issue.  Like the international telescope on Mauna Kea or sovereignty.  There are diverse beliefs on these issues among native Hawaiians and among the rest of the people of Hawaii.  As to the visitor industry, people are getting crushed.  Opinions can vary from one person to the next depending on personal impact.  And personal impact can change from one day to the next.  For example, someone could be stressed about the roof over their head and then it is announced that they get an extra couple thousand a month in benefits.  Instant change in outlook.


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## DavidnRobin

amy241 said:


> They have the same immunity that everyone else has to this - none. Theirs is no different.



Point missed...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## csodjd

Kapolei said:


> I apologize for single-ing you out on this.  It is a common error often made with no intent to disrespect.  The other common error is for people to watch and participate in media and attach conclusions about how an entire group of people stand on an issue.  Like the international telescope on Mauna Kea or sovereignty.  There are diverse beliefs on these issues among native Hawaiians and among the rest of the people of Hawaii.  As to the visitor industry, people are getting crushed.  Opinions can vary from one person to the next depending on personal impact.  And personal impact can change from one day to the next.  For example, someone could be stressed about the roof over their head and then it is announced that they get an extra couple thousand a month in benefits.  Instant change in outlook.


This really isn’t that complicated. “Hawaiian’s“ refers to people of Hawaiian decent. ”Hawaiian residents” refers to people that live in Hawaii. If I move to Hawaii, I’d be a resident, but most certainly not Hawaiian. 

As for “opinions,” I think most are referring to the majority opinion, not everyone’s opinion. I don’t think anyone would argue if someone said Hawaii is a liberal state. That doesn’t mean everyone there is liberal, nor do I think it would be understood to mean that. California, for instance, is clearly a “liberal” state. But I believe more counties are actually politically conservative, they just aren’t the large population centers. But there are a lot of conservatives and a lot of Trump supporters in California. Just not close to a majority. 

I wouldn’t get too caught up in Semantics when you know what was meant. Most people don’t talk or write with lawyer-like precision.


----------



## csodjd

Ralph Sir Edward said:


> Question. Why should I visit Hawaii when there is an major outbreak of COVID-19 there?
> 
> It's not just a matter of Hawaii not letting me go. Why should we let residents of Hawaii in, currrently? (Think of all the people New York are quarantining. . . )


“Major outbreak” needs to be put in context. In Hawaii, that context is largely about the capacity of their medical system. In a city the size of Honolulu it’s hard to say the “outbreak” is “major.” I think it would be more fair to say that officials there want to act before it BECOMES a major outbreak to keep it from becoming one.


----------



## Kapolei

csodjd said:


> I wouldn’t get too caught up in Semantics when you know what was meant. Most people don’t talk or write with lawyer-like precision.



I appreciate this excellent point.  We need to be kind and gracious when we disagree or want to share different perspectives.


----------



## Roger830

Hawaii is now seeing the fastest rate of increase of anywhere in US.

This is probably because they are measuring from a small base because extreme quarantine measures kept cases low.

Pay me now or pay me later.     









						Hawaii seeing fastest rate of COVID-19 spread of anywhere in the US
					

Hawaii is now battling the highest rate of coronavirus transmission in the nation, new data shows.




					nypost.com


----------



## cman

PigsDad said:


> No disrespect intended -- not sure why you ever thought that?   I simply used the term Hawaiians and then clarified in my followup post what I meant by that after your post.  I can certainly use "people of Hawaii" in the future; no problem.
> 
> Kurt


You raised a good question. I had been misusing the term also. I saw this explanation on the internet;

_People who are native to Hawaii are called Hawaiians. People who live in Hawaii but are not native Hawaiians, even if born in the state, are referred to as *Hawaii residents* *or islanders*. _


----------



## DeniseM

Or "locals" "A local guy"


----------



## csodjd

Back on point... today is Aug 11. The travel rules from outside Hawaii are scheduled to change in about 20 days. That’s not too far off. I would imaging that hotels and timeshares are ramping up to open Sept. 1. Seems the Governor has to make a decision if he’s going to delay the opening soon, very soon. Is anyone saying anything? I’d think they’d want to see the new cases drop below 100, or even below 50, before opening up. 

But here is a critical fact. For the past 7 days, the infection rate is 5.7%. That’s actually not awful. It would not be all that hard to drop that below 5%, even well below 5%. It has gone down each day for the last 3 days. It was 4% yesterday. If it drops below 4% and stabilizes that may allow them to stay the course given the requirement for a negative test. 





__





						Hawaii COVID-19 Data | Disease Outbreak Control Division | COVID-19
					






					health.hawaii.gov


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> Back on point... today is Aug 11. The travel rules from outside Hawaii are scheduled to change in about 20 days. That’s not too far off. I would imaging that hotels and timeshares are ramping up to open Sept. 1. Seems the Governor has to make a decision if he’s going to delay the opening soon, very soon. Is anyone saying anything? I’d think they’d want to see the new cases drop below 100, or even below 50, before opening up.
> 
> But here is a critical fact. For the past 7 days, the infection rate is 5.7%. That’s actually not awful. It would not be all that hard to drop that below 5%, even well below 5%. It has gone down each day for the last 3 days. It was 4% yesterday. If it drops below 4% and stabilizes that may allow them to stay the course given the requirement for a negative test.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii COVID-19 Data | Disease Outbreak Control Division | COVID-19
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> health.hawaii.gov


At this point I would say "the travel rules from outside Hawaii *might *change in about 20 days. The way it's been going I wouldn't say anything is a done deal at this point.


----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> At this point I would say "the travel rules from outside Hawaii *might *change in about 20 days. The way it's been going I would say anything is a done deal at this point.


I assume you meant you “wouldn’t” say anything is a done deal. 

The question is, would the Governor change the date just days, or a day, before the new rules are set to go into effect? He’s expressed before sensitivity to the time needed for hotels, etc., to ramp up and be ready to open. If he’s still sensitive to that, I’d think he has a (perhaps self-imposed) drop dead date that’s almost upon him. But that’s all speculative. That‘s why I wonder if those that are living in Hawaii have any insights.


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> I assume you meant you “wouldn’t” say anything is a done deal.
> 
> The question is, would the Governor change the date just days, or a day, before the new rules are set to go into effect? He’s expressed before sensitivity to the time needed for hotels, etc., to ramp up and be ready to open. If he’s still sensitive to that, I’d think he has a (perhaps self-imposed) drop dead date that’s almost upon him. But that’s all speculative. That‘s why I wonder if those that are living in Hawaii have any insights.


Yes, that's what I meant.  I went back and corrected it.

I don't know the governor, but yes, if the numbers are getting worse I think he would/could change the date just a few days ahead.  He reinstated the inter-island quarantine with just 4 days notice.


----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> Yes, that's what I meant.  I went back and corrected it.
> 
> I don't know the governor, but yes, if the numbers are getting worse I think he would/could change the date just a few days ahead.  He reinstated the inter-island quarantine with just 4 days notice.


True, but I’m not sure that implicates hotels and other tourism-related businesses that need to ramp up for a mainland opening In quite the same way.


----------



## Luanne

csodjd said:


> True, but I’m not sure that implicates hotels and other tourism-related businesses that need to ramp up for a mainland opening In quite the same way.


All I was saying was, he's made quick decisions in the past.


----------



## slip

No special insight but if he follows past announcements, he will make one this week or early next week.

Case were at 113 today so it would be good to get back into single digits but I remember he was showing concern when we approached 50 cases.

I really think he will extend it but that is only my guess on what he will do.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> No special insight but if he follows past announcements, he will make one this week or early next week.
> 
> Case were at 113 today so it would be good to get back into single digits but I remember he was showing concern when we approached 50 cases.
> 
> I really think he will extend it but that is only my guess on what he will do.


I certainly would not be surprised if he does. But if that 113 declines over the next few days AND the positive rate settles into the 2-3% he may see the “crisis” as having passed. It seems Hawaii, primarily Oahu, got hit by a dose of complacency and found out that that doesn’t work well with a virus. But, if they get down < 50 over the next week, they’ll have also learned that they can control and contain the virus, they just have to be more diligent and not become complacent again. That’s actually an encouraging sign IMO.


----------



## JIMinNC

A lot of it has to do with perspective. Many other states would be reasonably pleased with Hawaii's 5% positive rate, but Hawaii pegged their strategy to maintaining a VERY low rate of infection, based probably on their great success reducing infection to almost zero in May. Such a strategy may prove to be very difficult without continuing significant restrictions somewhat indefinitely.

New Zealand had been case-free for 101 days, but just re-imposed a lock-down on Auckland and increased restrictions nationwide because of just four new cases, all of them in one family. It seems once you embark on a strategy of elimination, it becomes very difficult to pivot to a strategy of containment.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> A lot of it has to do with perspective. Many other states would be reasonably pleased with Hawaii's 5% positive rate, but Hawaii pegged their strategy to maintaining a VERY low rate of infection, based probably on their great success reducing infection to almost zero in May. Such a strategy may prove to be very difficult without continuing significant restrictions somewhat indefinitely.
> 
> New Zealand had been case-free for 101 days, but just re-imposed a lock-down on Auckland and increased restrictions nationwide because of just four new cases, all of them in one family. It seems once you embark on a strategy of elimination, it becomes very difficult to pivot to a strategy of containment.


Yet containment is easy and effective once you have the rate down low. I agree, a 5% rate probably doesn’t cut it for Hawaii, for numerous reasons. But even with their awful last few weeks, they were at 4% yesterday. So a 1% rate is likely to be seen in the next week. How low is low enough? Zero is setting an unattainable target. So there’s going to need to be some acceptable non-zero rate. 

An important associated question is, what is the “positive rate” among those taking a PCR test and getting a negative result within 72 hours of departure for Hawaii? Say we use California has a benchmark. Assume it’s got a 6% rate. If you retest the 94% of negatives, what percent come back and actually are positive? That’s approximately the risk of an infected person coming into Hawaii AFTER testing negative. I say “approximately,” however, because people going to Hawaii are not a random cross-section of the population. Wide swath’s of people aren’t coming... those in prison, those in nursing homes, those earning $25k/yr or less, etc. Those are also the populations at greatest risk of being infected.


----------



## PigsDad

csodjd said:


> An important associated question is, what is the “positive rate” among those taking a PCR test and getting a negative result within 72 hours of departure for Hawaii? Say we use California has a benchmark. Assume it’s got a 6% rate. If you retest the 94% of negatives, what percent come back and actually are positive? That’s approximately the risk of an infected person coming into Hawaii AFTER testing negative. I say “approximately,” however, *because people going to Hawaii are not a random cross-section of the population.* Wide swath’s of people aren’t coming... those in prison, those in nursing homes, those earning $25k/yr or less, etc. Those are also the populations at greatest risk of being infected.


Yes, that is a good point -- I think there is probably a _very _large difference in the population that is planning to travel to Hawaii vs. those who are currently taking tests.  The latter group is heavily skewed towards those people who already have symptoms and/or have knowingly been exposed to someone who was infected.

Kurt


----------



## csodjd

PigsDad said:


> Yes, that is a good point -- I think there is probably a _very _large difference in the population that is planning to travel to Hawaii vs. those who are currently taking tests.  The latter group is heavily skewed towards those people who already have symptoms and/or have knowingly been exposed to someone who was infected.
> 
> Kurt


There’s an interesting psychological consideration, but one that can’t readily be measured. If you just spent $2000+ for flights for your family and have a room booked for a vacation in Hawaii, and you have to test negative to be allowed to go, and will only get that test result the day before you leave give or take a bit, I would think and hope that you’d be particularly careful the week ahead to avoid any risk situations. 

You’re not getting tested because you want to know if you have it, or because you were exposed, or because you have symptoms. You’re being tested because you WANT and NEED a negative result. That outcome of that test depends almost entirely on what you’ve been doing the week or so before the test. 

Going to Hawaii will require about a 10-day “prep” period of minimal time out of the house or doing anything risky. And if you are thinking that way, the true negative rate should be very, very, high.


----------



## travelhacker

csodjd said:


> There’s an interesting psychological consideration, but one that can’t readily be measured. If you just spent $2000+ for flights for your family and have a room booked for a vacation in Hawaii, and you have to test negative to be allowed to go, and will only get that test result the day before you leave give or take a bit, I would think and hope that you’d be particularly careful the week ahead to avoid any risk situations.
> 
> You’re not getting tested because you want to know if you have it, or because you were exposed, or because you have symptoms. You’re being tested because you WANT and NEED a negative result. That outcome of that test depends almost entirely on what you’ve been doing the week or so before the test.
> 
> Going to Hawaii will require about a 10-day “prep” period of minimal time out of the house or doing anything risky. And if you are thinking that way, the true negative rate should be very, very, high.


I agree 100%. I think this should be a no brainer to allow people to come with negative tests. My brother who hasn't been careful at all, had a trip planned in August and he was ready to have all his kids stay home for the 2 weeks before the trip so that they could go. He was NOT going to risk being able to go. 

Also, with so much closed -- I think it's really, really easy to socially distance in Hawaii and not risk exposing really anyone.

Tourism will be slow to come back and I would think manageable.


----------



## lynne

Does not look too promising for a September opening:









						Gov. Ige: Surge in COVID cases likely means another delay in reopening tourism
					

HONOLULU (KHON2) — The surge in daily COVID cases and hospitalizations makes it more likely that reopening tourism will not happen on September 1. The governor says he hasn’t made a dec…




					www.khon2.com


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

lynne said:


> Does not look too promising for a September opening:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gov. Ige: Surge in COVID cases likely means another delay in reopening tourism
> 
> 
> HONOLULU (KHON2) — The surge in daily COVID cases and hospitalizations makes it more likely that reopening tourism will not happen on September 1. The governor says he hasn’t made a dec…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.khon2.com



Now that i canceled our late Sept trip, i would have been annoyed if things opened up..   But to be honest the testing delays here on the mainland are big problem as well.  My wife was tested in the last week of July and we still don't have her results...  Delays like that will totally ruin the trip anyways.   I am planning to rebook for the spring, hoping that things are more stable by then.


----------



## dsmrp

lynne said:


> Does not look too promising for a September opening:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gov. Ige: Surge in COVID cases likely means another delay in reopening tourism
> 
> 
> HONOLULU (KHON2) — The surge in daily COVID cases and hospitalizations makes it more likely that reopening tourism will not happen on September 1. The governor says he hasn’t made a dec…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.khon2.com



+1
The reported positive Covid cases went down to 130 yesterday, but jumped up to over 200 today. And the city hall had a mini outbreak recently, traced back to an employee potluck !


----------



## lynne

dsmrp said:


> +1
> The reported positive Covid cases went down to 130 yesterday, but jumped up to over 200 today. And the city hall had a mini outbreak recently, traced back to an employee potluck !


The outbreak appears to be linked to an employee retirement party at Honolulu Hale


----------



## dsmrp

lynne said:


> The outbreak appears to be linked to an employee retirement party at Honolulu Hale


Yes, and it was outdoors too.
But the mayor now says it wasn't from that potluck, instead from other informal gatherings in the offices.


----------



## DannyTS

Look back at the comments in April-July. News was always going to come "soon" but the news was always evasive with another promise for details "soon". When they opened the inter island travel they said they expected an increase in cases but now they are using that increase as a justification for  further delays. Better tell folks the truth, that they just do not want to reopen unless the virus is gone (not anytime soon). Better both for tourists and for the tourism industry to know where they stand.


----------



## DeniseM

Hi Big Danny Dan Dan!  So wonderful to see you back on the Hawaii forum! We have missed you and your silly conspiracy posts! It has been so calm and rationale without you!  I can't wait to see what silly idea that you post next! Have a wonderful day!


----------



## DannyTS

DeniseM said:


> Hi Big Danny Dan Dan!  So wonderful to see you back on the Hawaii forum! We have missed you and your silly conspiracy posts! It has been so calm and rationale without you!  I can't wait to see what silly idea that you post next! Have a wonderful day!


I am not sure what part you do not agree with. Would tourists and the industry not want a clear message from the state? Have their statements not been very  evasive and haven't they pushed announcements several times? Does anyone know what they are thinking? Since they did not open in June when the number of cases was at a low both mainland US and  Hawaii, when is a good time to do it? Typically  calm and rational do not come with mean spirited comments like yours. And I think you misuse the word conspiracy and you overuse it. You probably also use it at breakfast with your family when you talk about omelettes.


----------



## csodjd

dsmrp said:


> Yes, and it was outdoors too.
> But the mayor now says it wasn't from that potluck, instead from other informal gatherings in the offices.


The problem isn’t WHICH gathering/party outbreaks are coming from, it is that there ARE gatherings/parties. It is that complacency, occurring here and there, a dozen times here and a dozen times there, that is driving 200 new cases in a day. If residents, especially on Oahu, want their economy restored, people back to work, businesses open, restaurants and small businesses to survive, etc., it starts with THEIR collective decisions. Can’t blame those pesky tourists!


----------



## dsmrp

csodjd said:


> The problem isn’t WHICH gathering/party outbreaks are coming from, it is that there ARE gatherings/parties. It is that complacency, occurring here and there, a dozen times here and a dozen times there, that is driving 200 new cases in a day. If residents, especially on Oahu, want their economy restored, people back to work, businesses open, restaurants and small businesses to survive, etc., it starts with THEIR collective decisions. Can’t blame those pesky tourists!


The local govts acknowledge the complacency of resident groups (a few in particular) contributing to the rise in case rate. The closure of beaches and parks are aimed at the large gatherings of locals.

The complacency after having business shutdowns during the spring, is no different than any other metro region in US, that saw a drop in May then resurgence of Covid cases in early summer.


----------



## jabberwocky

csodjd said:


> The problem isn’t WHICH gathering/party outbreaks are coming from, it is that there ARE gatherings/parties. It is that complacency, occurring here and there, a dozen times here and a dozen times there, that is driving 200 new cases in a day. If residents, especially on Oahu, want their economy restored, people back to work, businesses open, restaurants and small businesses to survive, etc., it starts with THEIR collective decisions. Can’t blame those pesky tourists!


If there is widespread community spread, as there seems to now be on Oahu, doesn’t the justification for a quarantine of travellers to Oahu become superfluous?


----------



## DeniseM

No - Because they don't have enough hospital beds for additional sick tourists.  They are already maxed out, and they got 355 new cases yesterday.


----------



## Roger830

Here's a photo that I took last year.


----------



## jabberwocky

DeniseM said:


> No - Because they don't have enough hospital beds for additional sick tourists.  They are already maxed out, and they got 355 new cases yesterday.


With respect - that doesn’t answer the question. I keep hearing that there isn’t the medical capacity, but it has now been five months for them to get that resolved. It’s really a failure of leadership if that is the excuse IMO.


----------



## rickandcindy23

How many people are hospitalized?  Many people get the virus and are asymptomatic.  Severely obese and elderly are the most at risk.  Are cases up because they are testing more of the population?  I don't see much real information in the articles I have read.


----------



## DeniseM

Oops - I forgot myself and joined in the fray.  My apologies - have at it.


----------



## cman

rickandcindy23 said:


> How many people are hospitalized?  Many people get the virus and are asymptomatic.  Severely obese and elderly are the most at risk.  Are cases up because they are testing more of the population?  I don't see much real information in the articles I have read.


I ran across this article from a few days ago. ICU admissions jumped 33% in two days. Supposedly, they have some emergency plans that they can implement that will increase their capacity by re-purposing rooms. I think the article said they had 70 people in ICU. 









						COVID-19 hospitalizations on Oahu jump by 33% in two days
					

“We are reaching capacity in some of our individual intensive care units."




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## cman

Pacific Islanders are only 4% of the population but account for 30% of Hawaii's cases. Why?


----------



## Luanne

cman said:


> Pacific Islanders are only 4% of the population but account for 30% of Hawaii's cases. Why?
> View attachment 24892


Same thing with Native Americans in New Mexico (and most likely other states).

https://www.abqjournal.com/1461218/...9-death-rates-for-native-americans-in-nm.html


----------



## 1Kflyerguy

Roger830 said:


> Here's a photo that I took last year.
> 
> View attachment 24890


That looks different from the Hawaii i remember....


----------



## cman

Luanne said:


> Same thing with Native Americans in New Mexico (and most likely other states).
> 
> https://www.abqjournal.com/1461218/...9-death-rates-for-native-americans-in-nm.html


Wow. I had no idea.


----------



## geist1223

Roger830 said:


> Here's a photo that I took last year.
> 
> View attachment 24890


So where was this picture taken?


----------



## Roger830

geist1223 said:


> So where was this picture taken?



Schwabacher Landing


----------



## DannyTS

cman said:


> Pacific Islanders are only 4% of the population but account for 30% of Hawaii's cases. Why?
> View attachment 24892











						Pacific Islanders hit more with virus than others in Hawaii
					

HONOLULU (AP) — While Pacific Islanders make up just 4% of Hawaii's population, they represent 27% of the state's newly confirmed coronavirus cases, according to state Department of Health data released. White people have 20% of the newly confirmed cases and make up a quarter of the state's...




					www.sfchronicle.com
				



Lt. Gov. Josh Green said that the "Pacific Islander community has some unique challenges, particularly while living in very large, committed, multi-generational families — a lot of them in Kalihi.”


State Health Director Bruce Anderson told reporters Monday that the disproportionate number of cases in the Pacific Islander community are rooted in socioeconomics and that state officials must help combat those inequities.


----------



## csodjd

cman said:


> Pacific Islanders are only 4% of the population but account for 30% of Hawaii's cases. Why?
> View attachment 24892


Those are not always easy questions to answer. While socioeconomic factors are easy to identify, when dealing with viruses and infectious disease, etc., genetic differences, differences in immune response, history of exposure to related antigens, differences in vaccination history, and cultural differences are among the many factors that can contribute to differences like this. It can take some time for researchers to sort those things out. It’s important not to jump to conclusions.


----------



## cman

Just looking at their recent numbers. Hawaii is in a desperate situation. If they don't take drastic action now, I don't see a way out of this for them. This thing is spiraling out of control on Oahu.


----------



## csodjd

cman said:


> Just looking at their recent numbers. Hawaii is in a desperate situation. If they don't take drastic action now, I don't see a way out of this for them. This thing is spiraling out of control on Oahu.
> 
> View attachment 24895


A fair number of those newest cases are apparently in a prison or jail, so the “community“ spread is somewhat less. Still substantial cases though. I’m actually surprised by how the Governor and Lt. Governor appear to be sort of taking it in stride.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I don't blame them, currently, but for a very different reason. I don't blame them because they don't yet have in place the necessary systems, protocols, etc., to provide adequate protection against new community spread. With testing of incoming people, testing of symptomatic people, and contact tracing -- none of which was available when the virus first showed up -- Hawaii has more than adequate medical resources and would NOT be over burdened (they didn't overwhelm their resources even when they did not have any of those things).
> 
> It is not about the medical resources. It is about the ability to minimize risk and contain/prevent community spread.



In general I like what Governor Ige has done with protecting Hawaii during this pandemic.  However, he is a professional crastinator.  A Procrastinator.


----------



## klpca

Tamaradarann said:


> However, he is a professional crastinator.  A Procrastinator.


Truth. I just want to cancel my trip without penalty and for that to happen, the state needs to announce their plans - if they impose a quarantine we will just skip the trip and rebook for another time. If they allow us to travel we'll still go. I understand that things are fluid, but my goodness I think that the writing is on the wall with their cases. At some point he will have to make a tough choice and it's not going to get any easier the longer he waits. Meanwhile everyone is in economic purgatory - residents and visitors alike.


----------



## csodjd

klpca said:


> Truth. I just want to cancel my trip without penalty and for that to happen, the state needs to announce their plans - if they impose a quarantine we will just skip the trip and rebook for another time. If they allow us to travel we'll still go. I understand that things are fluid, but my goodness I think that the writing is on the wall with their cases. At some point he will have to make a tough choice and it's not going to get any easier the longer he waits. Meanwhile everyone is in economic purgatory - residents and visitors alike.


The thing that might be giving him pause is if, behind the scenes, his experts are saying that the actions taken, closing bars, etc., will take 2-3 weeks to have a measurable impact, but they should restore the levels of new cases back to the acceptable level. So he’s sitting and waiting to see if that happens or not. But you’re right... everyone is stuck until he decides, tourists at one end, airlines and hotels in the middle, and employees and small businesses in Hawaii at the other end. It’s a tripartite relationship and they all need to be on the same page.


----------



## Kapolei

We are at a very scary point on the curve.  We will have to see what the next few days brings.


----------



## dsmrp

The percentages of in use ICU beds and # of ventilators reported in the paper didn't look too high. But the raw total numbers of beds and equipment are still much lower than many other states.  I could see beds and ventilators rapidly being depleted.

I read they don't have the (ICU) nursing staff and maybe physicians to support max capacity. And would need to bring in staff from the mainland.


----------



## DannyTS

the lt. gov. said they can have additional capacity fast if needed (both civilian and military) so this should not be a concern


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> the lt. gov. said they can have additional capacity fast if needed (both civilian and military) so this should not be a concern


The Governor and Lt. Governor don’t always seem to be on the same page though. 

However, the pragmatic reality is that, unless around the US one can RELIABLY get a test result back in 1-2 days, it really doesn’t matter what the Governor of Hawaii does with the “open” date. As I understand it, you’ll (everyone in your travel party really) need a negative result within 72 hours of arrival. Realistically, you need your results the day before you’d be leaving to allow time to cancel. (And you need to have reservations somehwhere that allows you to cancel up to a day before arrival). 

As long as there remain surges and backlogs on testing, or restrictions on getting tested, how can anyone PLAN to travel to Hawaii based on a negative test EVEN IF Hawaii were to allow it?


----------



## PearlCity

I've not posted in years- but im not sure if anyone posted here about our contact tracing fiasco in Hawaii. The public was told we had 100 contact tracers. Turns out for Oahu we had around 9. The public was going about their merry way thinking if thry were exposed that a contact tracer would call them. They never did because they were severely understaffed. Opening up was based on adequate contact tracing. No idea what is in the future for us now.

Here are a few news articles:









						U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard calls contact tracing numbers ‘a lie’
					

U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who called for the resignations or firings of state Health Director Bruce Anderson and state epidemiologist Dr. Sarah Park in April and again this week, said on Friday that there are fewer than 10 so-called contact tracers on Oahu and fewer than 20 across the entire...




					www.staradvertiser.com
				












						During unannounced visit, senators find a health department overwhelmed by COVID-19 surge
					

Fed up with a perceived lack of information on the state’s use of contact tracers, the Hawaii Senate Committee on the coronavirus pandemic walked right up to the Department of Health Friday morning to seek answers




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				












						Whistleblower describes a Health Department ‘struggling to keep up’
					

As coronavirus clusters spread, she says her efforts to sound the alarm fell on deaf ears.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				




Beaches and hiking trails on oahu are shutdown and gatherings of more than 10 have been banned. Bars, fitness classes, arcades, bowling alleys and mini golf (dont ask mw why bowling alleys and mini golf) all shut right now. There is talk of further shutdowns next week.

[Political - deleted]


Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


----------



## linsj

I finally conceded defeat for a two-week trip in early November and rebooked elsewhere. This is the first year since 2002 I haven't gone to Hawaii at least once a year, the past few years 2-3 times. <Sigh>


----------



## DannyTS

The way it is going a good winter travel season is starting to look very unlikely. Hawaii may impose another lockdown now but doesn't that almost guarantee another surge close to the end of the year?








						Tourism officials can’t market Hawaii as ‘the safest place on earth’ anymore
					

It was just a few months ago when some Hawaii tourism and government officials thought Hawaii had a shot at marketing the state to tourists as “the safest place on earth.”




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## PearlCity

The thing is no one knows. Lockdown may be for oahu only. There is talk of resort bubbles on Maui, Kauai and the Big Island. But details have not yet been worked out. 

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


----------



## fernow

DannyTS said:


> ... but doesn't that almost guarantee another surge close to the end of the year?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tourism officials can’t market Hawaii as ‘the safest place on earth’ anymore
> 
> 
> It was just a few months ago when some Hawaii tourism and government officials thought Hawaii had a shot at marketing the state to tourists as “the safest place on earth.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com



Yes.  Absolutely.

Covid is a political issue, not a medical one.  Shouldn't be, but is.  As such, any discussion evokes an immediate emotional response, [deleted: political/socially contentious], which only serves to hurt a considered response to the disease that considers the risk of the infection vs the risks of the response.

Covid is serious for a few and minor for most yet most view it as the other way around.  Fear is a terrible thing.

Flu is seasonal.  Where does it "go" during the off season.  Surfaces?  Asymptomatic carriers?  In any case, it is seasonal so we can vaccinate seasonally.  Still, people get it and die from it.  But we traveled and went to baseball games and restaurants. Risk/benefit ratio.

Covid is proving to be not seasonal.  Most current GUESSES are that any vaccine that comes available (IF any does) will NOT give life long immunity and will need to be repeated.  How often?  It will not be 100% effective.  Some vaccinated people will still get sick.

Unless A) Herd immunity is reached (we are currently taking all available steps to make sure it isn't) or B) the virus burns out, we will be getting Covid infections forever.  So.  Stop traveling forever?  Travel and take the risks?  Only two options unless A or B.

Except it is not about what makes sense.  It is about what each persons particular political party believes.  Doomed.


----------



## travelhacker

csodjd said:


> The Governor and Lt. Governor don’t always seem to be on the same page though.
> 
> However, the pragmatic reality is that, unless around the US one can RELIABLY get a test result back in 1-2 days, it really doesn’t matter what the Governor of Hawaii does with the “open” date. As I understand it, you’ll (everyone in your travel party really) need a negative result within 72 hours of arrival. Realistically, you need your results the day before you’d be leaving to allow time to cancel. (And you need to have reservations somehwhere that allows you to cancel up to a day before arrival).
> 
> As long as there remain surges and backlogs on testing, or restrictions on getting tested, how can anyone PLAN to travel to Hawaii based on a negative test EVEN IF Hawaii were to allow it?


What you are saying is true, but there are A LOT of areas of the US and (I would guess) Asia that have no issues getting results back in 24 hours. 

We're in Colorado and know many people that have gotten tests back in less than 24 hours. As Arizona has improved dramatically from their peaks, the turnaround time is again well within that threshold (those are the only two states where I know people that have gotten test results recently). 

My gut says for exactly the reasons that you outline, the travel to Hawaii would still be limited, but it would be nice to be able to go without the quarantine if you were capable of meeting the requirements as outlined to reopen on August 1st (pushed back to September 1st, and likely to be pushed back again).


----------



## lynne

travelhacker said:


> What you are saying is true, but there are A LOT of areas of the US and (I would guess) Asia that have no issues getting results back in 24 hours.
> 
> We're in Colorado and know many people that have gotten tests back in less than 24 hours. As Arizona has improved dramatically from their peaks, the turnaround time is again well within that threshold (those are the only two states where I know people that have gotten test results recently).
> 
> My gut says for exactly the reasons that you outline, the travel to Hawaii would still be limited, but it would be nice to be able to go without the quarantine if you were capable of meeting the requirements as outlined to reopen on August 1st (pushed back to September 1st, and likely to be pushed back again).


I think the main issue is being able to identify both visitors and returning residents who have to quarantine for 14 days as opposed to those that followed the protocol and provided negative test results.  Once you open to both cases, you lose control of ever being able to trace.


----------



## controller1

fernow said:


> Covid is a political issue, not a medical one.



We have a friend who in May stated on Facebook that "Covid would be gone after the election". Two weeks ago she was discharged after spending nearly a month in the ICU. She says she can't believe she ever uttered those initial words.


----------



## chickenfoot

is there a formal testing policy/procedure in place?  It initially seemed that the test needed to be performed by one vendor to ascertain validity and prevent fraudulent test results.  I spoke to Ko Olina Reservations tonight and the expect Gov Ige will push back the opening till October.  I have a trip scheduled first week of September but it all seems in limbo


----------



## fernow

controller1 said:


> We have a friend who in May stated on Facebook that "Covid would be gone after the election". Two weeks ago she was discharged after spending nearly a month in the ICU. She says she can't believe she ever uttered those initial words.



The disease is real.  The RESPONSE to the disease is political.  As I said, discussions become emotional.  I even had a portion of my previous post deleted because I said discussion often results in emotional responses that people don't want to hear so they censor them.  That comment was censored.  Ironic but that is how this pandemic is being dealt with.  Fear is a terrible thing.

Real disease.  Serious for a few.  Minor for most.  The discussion of how it is best dealt with is needed but... 

As tragic as it is for anyone to get sick, the association of healthy skepticism with eventual contraction of the disease proves nothing.   Yet it is a popular narrative, eagerly reported, whenever it occurs as if to say that if the person had only believed, they would not have gotten sick.  People very afraid of the disease have gotten it too.

Masks and distancing can flatten.  They do not eliminate the virus.  See my previous post. 

I know this make some of you angry to read.  I am sorry for that.  Not my intent.  Discussions can't be one sided.  I hear and do not censor those who say hide until the virus goes away or there is a vaccine.  But for how long?  At what cost?  What if those things never occur? What is plan B?


----------



## rickandcindy23

fernow said:


> The disease is real.  The RESPONSE to the disease is political.  As I said, discussions become emotional.  I even had a portion of my previous post deleted because I said discussion often results in emotional responses that people don't want to hear so they censor them.  That comment was censored.  Ironic but that is how this pandemic is being dealt with.  Fear is a terrible thing.
> 
> Real disease.  Serious for a few.  Minor for most.  The discussion of how it is best dealt with is needed but...
> 
> As tragic as it is for anyone to get sick, the association of healthy skepticism with eventual contraction of the disease proves nothing.   Yet it is a popular narrative, eagerly reported, whenever it occurs as if to say that if the person had only believed, they would not have gotten sick.  People very afraid of the disease have gotten it too.
> 
> Masks and distancing can flatten.  They do not eliminate the virus.  See my previous post.
> 
> I know this make some of you angry to read.  I am sorry for that.  Not my intent.  Discussions can't be one sided.  I hear and do not censor those who say hide until the virus goes away or there is a vaccine.  But for how long?  At what cost?  What if those things never occur? What is plan B?


Agree with this.  If this virus becomes something more like a cold, if there is no cure or vaccination (believe it or nor, there is no cure for a common cold and sometimes becomes pneumonia), are we going to stay home and allow hotels and timeshares to shut down.  So the country stops moving completely, over a virus?  It's insanity. 

People at risk, people who are obese or elderly, they can stay home.  By all means.  But healthy people should make their own choices.  If my sister wants to hang out in her backyard with a mask on, more power to her.  I am not going to do that.  I wear a mask in CO at the grocery store (the only place I get to go) because it's mandated in our state.


----------



## geist1223

rickandcindy23 said:


> People at risk, people who are obese or elderly, they can stay home.  By all means.



So you will cut off all contact with these people so that you do not pass on the disease. Just in case you are one of the 30% to 60% that have the disease but no symptoms. But wait a minute what about all those people in their 20's and 30's that have come down with the disease.


----------



## Tamaradarann

rickandcindy23 said:


> Agree with this.  If this virus becomes something more like a cold, if there is no cure or vaccination (believe it or nor, there is no cure for a common cold and sometimes becomes pneumonia), are we going to stay home and allow hotels and timeshares to shut down.  So the country stops moving completely, over a virus?  It's insanity.
> 
> People at risk, people who are obese or elderly, they can stay home.  By all means.  But healthy people should make their own choices.  If my sister wants to hang out in her backyard with a mask on, more power to her.  I am not going to do that.  I wear a mask in CO at the grocery store (the only place I get to go) because it's mandated in our state.



I don't hang out with my mask on in my backyard.  However, if you came over to my backyard you would have to wear a mask and I would also.  You wear the mask to protect others if you have the virus as well as protecting yourself.  If you have the virus, you may not know it since it could not have come yet come out or you could be asymptomatic, but you still are contaigeous.  I am glad that you respect your Sister and wear a mask when you go over there.


----------



## csodjd

rickandcindy23 said:


> Agree with this.  If this virus becomes something more like a cold, if there is no cure or vaccination (believe it or nor, there is no cure for a common cold and sometimes becomes pneumonia), are we going to stay home and allow hotels and timeshares to shut down.  So the country stops moving completely, over a virus?  It's insanity.
> 
> People at risk, people who are obese or elderly, they can stay home.  By all means.  But healthy people should make their own choices.  If my sister wants to hang out in her backyard with a mask on, more power to her.  I am not going to do that.  I wear a mask in CO at the grocery store (the only place I get to go) because it's mandated in our state.


Just wondering... if you had the flu, would you go to, say, a dinner party with 10-12 of your closest friends without any concern that you’d get a bunch of them sick? 

And, as a corollary question, if one or two were in the midst of chemo and immunocompromised, would you go anyway and tell them they shouldn’t go because you’re sick?


----------



## DannyTS

good news, only 134 cases today









						Hawaii reports 41st coronavirus-related death and 134 new cases as statewide tally climbs to 5,349
					

UPDATE: 4:45 p.m.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## Pathways

csodjd said:


> Just wondering... if you had the flu, would you go to, say, a dinner party with 10-12 of your closest friends without any concern that you’d get a bunch of them sick?



Even worse - Ask anyone in a school or office.  Not only are people there with flu symptoms, but colds and any other issue.  Happens daily.  They go or they face consequences.  How about the church attendees wiping their runny noses and then wanting to shake hands? - ugh


----------



## PearlCity

Governor having a press conference at 2:30 pm HST. Hopefully we have more info and its not another wear your mask or else press conference 

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


----------



## slip

PearlCity said:


> Governor having a press conference at 2:30 pm HST. Hopefully we have more info and its not another wear your mask or else press conference
> 
> Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk



Sounds like it will be. The Lt. Governor did say that 3,000 active cases is where they would impose further restrictions. I believe we are at about 3,300 cases.


----------



## PearlCity

Well hopefully. The LT Governor says a lot of things but Gov Ige moves at his own pace.. so we'll see..

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----------



## PearlCity

Pretravel testing delayed from Sept 1st to AT LEAST Oct 1st per Governor Ige.

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----------



## slip

No social gatherings of more than 5 on Oahu. Same for at a table in a restaurant.


----------



## jabberwocky

Better change the title of this thread to October. Ige has just made it official that the pre-travel testing program is bumped back to October 1.


----------



## slip

134 cases today plus another fatality.


----------



## Ken555

jabberwocky said:


> Better change the title of this thread to October.



Yeah, but what year?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## slip

Ken555 said:


> Yeah, but what year?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



2020 for now. Seems to be one month at a time on Hawaii.


----------



## rickandcindy23

Forget about a Hawaii vacation until at least October as COVID-19 spike delays tourism reopening
					

Hawaii's planned Sept. 1 start date for allowing out-of-state visitors to bypass a 14-day quarantine has been delayed until October.



					www.usatoday.com
				




Glad I didn't plan on September.


----------



## klpca

rickandcindy23 said:


> Forget about a Hawaii vacation until at least October as COVID-19 spike delays tourism reopening
> 
> 
> Hawaii's planned Sept. 1 start date for allowing out-of-state visitors to bypass a 14-day quarantine has been delayed until October.
> 
> 
> 
> www.usatoday.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Glad I didn't plan on September.


At least I can call SFX tomorrow and test their cancellation policy. And then Hawaiian Airlines. I can't wait for life to go back to normal.


----------



## dsmrp

slip said:


> No social gatherings of more than 5 on Oahu. Same for at a table in a restaurant.


I'm glad they didn't go for a SIP and closure of business services. The new gatherings limitation is for 28 days. The daily counts for the last few days have been going down. I hope it continues, as we're in Honolulu now and hope to get a short respite after family care.


----------



## jabberwocky

dsmrp said:


> I'm glad they didn't go for a SIP and closure of business services. The new gatherings limitation is for 28 days. The daily counts for the last few days have been going down. I hope it continues, as we're in Honolulu now and hope to get a short respite after family care.


Cases are lumpy - this is guaranteed with any contact tracing system (potential contacts are identified and tested at the same time). And my understanding is that nearly half of the cases today were linked to a single jail.  

I just hope they can get it under control with this 28 day closure, but it may already be in-the-wild on Oahu. My guess is we will see wild ups and downs for a bit.


----------



## dsmrp

jabberwocky said:


> Cases are lumpy - this is guaranteed with any contact tracing system (potential contacts are identified and tested at the same time). And my understanding is that nearly half of the cases today were linked to a single jail.
> 
> I just hope they can get it under control with this 28 day closure, but it may already be in-the-wild on Oahu. My guess is we will see wild ups and downs for a bit.


Oh yes, I think is in the wild on Oahu. They had a SIP, according to my cousin,  for about 2-3 months, April to June.


----------



## slip

jabberwocky said:


> Cases are lumpy - this is guaranteed with any contact tracing system (potential contacts are identified and tested at the same time). And my understanding is that nearly half of the cases today were linked to a single jail.
> 
> I just hope they can get it under control with this 28 day closure, but it may already be in-the-wild on Oahu. My guess is we will see wild ups and downs for a bit.



At the conference today, I believe it was Mayor Caldwell that said that cases are too high right now for contact tracing to be affective. They have 100 contact tracers and they could add more but it wouldn’t work with the high amount of cases that we have right now. That was the reason he gave for not spending more on contact tracing.


----------



## Ken555

slip said:


> At the conference today, I believe it was Mayor Caldwell that said that cases are too high right now for contact tracing to be affective. They have 100 contact tracers and they could add more but it wouldn’t work with the high amount of cases that we have right now. That was the reason he gave for not spending more on contact tracing.



This means they didn’t sufficiently prepare. They’re not alone.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## slip

Ken555 said:


> This means they didn’t sufficiently prepare. They’re not alone.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I’m just passing on information I heard on the conference today.


----------



## Ken555

slip said:


> I’m just passing on information I heard on the conference today.



Yes, thanks for that. I’m just commenting on the update. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## slip

dsmrp said:


> I'm glad they didn't go for a SIP and closure of business services. The new gatherings limitation is for 28 days. The daily counts for the last few days have been going down. I hope it continues, as we're in Honolulu now and hope to get a short respite after family care.



Yes, it’s going to take those four weeks of numbers to see where they will go from here. They still haven’t said what is the number of daily cases that they are comfortable with. So we’ll just have to wait and see.


----------



## geist1223

So with all the restrictions on tourists the numbers are still going up. So obviously the tourists are not the source of the problem. You think Hawaii would welcome tourists that had negative tests.


----------



## jabberwocky

slip said:


> At the conference today, I believe it was Mayor Caldwell that said that cases are too high right now for contact tracing to be affective. They have 100 contact tracers and they could add more but it wouldn’t work with the high amount of cases that we have right now. That was the reason he gave for not spending more on contact tracing.


But you have to admit jail provides an opportunity for great contact tracing.


----------



## DavidnRobin

Perhaps it is time to change thread title to October...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## DeniseM

Do you still see September?  I changed it yesterday.


----------



## Kapolei

geist1223 said:


> So with all the restrictions on tourists the numbers are still going up. So obviously the tourists are not the source of the problem. You think Hawaii would welcome tourists that had negative tests.



Why would you want to be here now?  Everything is closed and the pandemic is spreading.  At least for Oahu.


----------



## DavidnRobin

DeniseM said:


> Do you still see September? I changed it yesterday.



I did see Sept - but now October.
TapaTalk seems delayed at times.
Hope you are well - Stay Safe.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## DeniseM

Hi Dave! We area safe and well, but have heavy smoke cover and ash this morning from the Del Porto Canyon fires.


----------



## DavidnRobin

DeniseM said:


> Hi Dave! We area safe and well, but have heavy smoke cover and ash this morning from the Del Porto Canyon fires.








On my TapaTalk app.

Sky is orange here in Silicon Valley from surrounding fires.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## DeniseM

Strange - I changed it around 6:00 pm yesterday.  Hang in there!


----------



## geist1223

Kapolei said:


> Why would you want to be here now?  Everything is closed and the pandemic is spreading.  At least for Oahu.



We were scheduled for 3 weeks on Kauai. Island with smallest Covid issue. Cancelled everything - rental car (no big deal was not prepaid); airfare (credit to credit card); WM Points back into Account and shuffle made correct adjustments; and, Point at Poipu (all Points returned with no penalty but had to use by 12/31/20 So dropped into DEX and we have 5 years to use).


----------



## csodjd

geist1223 said:


> So with all the restrictions on tourists the numbers are still going up. So obviously the tourists are not the source of the problem. You think Hawaii would welcome tourists that had negative tests.


Especially if they originate from a location with a positive test rate of < 5%.


----------



## dsmrp

On a side note, we're planning on renting a car for a few days later this month. On quick check of the rates, they seemed kinda high considering there is very low demand now. Lowest is about $150-160 for 4 days, weekly rate is $250.

My brother tells me the Aloha stadium parking lot is filled with un-rented rental cars.


----------



## csodjd

dsmrp said:


> On a side note, we're planning on renting a car for a few days later this month. On quick check of the rates, they seemed kinda high considering there is very low demand now. Lowest is about $150-160 for 4 days, weekly rate is $250.
> 
> My brother tells me the Aloha stadium parking lot is filled with un-rented rental cars.


Maybe that’s one of the reasons.


----------



## PearlCity

dsmrp said:


> On a side note, we're planning on renting a car for a few days later this month. On quick check of the rates, they seemed kinda high considering there is very low demand now. Lowest is about $150-160 for 4 days, weekly rate is $250.
> 
> My brother tells me the Aloha stadium parking lot is filled with un-rented rental cars.


Yes the stadium is filled with cars. And a swear i see them parked on the side of roads on some part of town (multiple cars same model diff color)

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


----------



## frank808

dsmrp said:


> On a side note, we're planning on renting a car for a few days later this month. On quick check of the rates, they seemed kinda high considering there is very low demand now. Lowest is about $150-160 for 4 days, weekly rate is $250.
> 
> My brother tells me the Aloha stadium parking lot is filled with un-rented rental cars.


There are thousands of unused rental cars sitting in the lower parking lot at Aloha Stadium.  Will try to take a pic and post it here when I drive by.


----------



## fillde

43% of Oahu residents say they want an immediate change in the policies that discourage tourists. 









						Hawaii residents frustrated with how coronavirus pandemic is being managed, survey finds
					

As the parade of triple- digit coronavirus case counts continued Friday, a statewide survey has detected a growing frustration among Hawaii residents about the way the pandemic is being managed.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## DannyTS

Two months ago when Hawaii had very few cases and mainland had a lot less spread than now, 80% supported the stringent measures. Now both mainland and Hawaii have a lot more cases but less people support the measures.


----------



## Breezy52

linsj said:


> I finally conceded defeat for a two-week trip in early November and rebooked elsewhere. This is the first year since 2002 I haven't gone to Hawaii at least once a year, the past few years 2-3 times. <Sigh>


I suspect i should follow your lead, sigh....


----------



## Ken555

fillde said:


> 43% of Oahu residents say they want an immediate change in the policies that discourage tourists.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii residents frustrated with how coronavirus pandemic is being managed, survey finds
> 
> 
> As the parade of triple- digit coronavirus case counts continued Friday, a statewide survey has detected a growing frustration among Hawaii residents about the way the pandemic is being managed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com



Everyone should read this article...it’s much more than just a survey on tourists (and, I would suggest, that 43% is the least important part of this article). For example:



> The survey elsewhere found four out of five Hawaii adults either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about themselves or someone in their family getting sick with COVID-19. The “very concerned” response increased 13 percentage points over the last survey.
> 
> Gov. David Ige and other top officials have said Hawaii let its guard down after the kamaaina economy opened in June, allowing the virus to spread.




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----------



## Luanne

Breezy52 said:


> I suspect i should follow your lead, sigh....


We have been going to Maui every March for the past few years.  We went this year, right before everything fell to pieces.  We won't be going back until 2022.


----------



## slip

Ken555 said:


> Everyone should read this article...it’s much more than just a survey on tourists (and, I would suggest, that 43% is the least important part of this article). For example:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk





Ken555 said:


> Everyone should read this article...it’s much more than just a survey on tourists (and, I would suggest, that 43% is the least important part of this article). For example:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



There is a lot of information here but to me the  only surprise is that 43% figure. If it’s correct.


----------



## Ken555

slip said:


> There is a lot of information here but to me the only surprise is that 43% figure. If it’s correct.



It’s probably accurate, but out of context. I’d like to see the questions.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## slip

Ken555 said:


> It’s probably accurate, but out of context. I’d like to see the questions.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



I’m not surprised to see some people changing their minds here in Hawaii. The amount is the surprise.  Seems like these polls can always be picked apart from both ends.


----------



## DannyTS

I would have like to see the actual survey, I do not find the article particularly clear. I did not understand how many people are very concerned, that would show how many people would oppose any measure to open the islands. "Somewhat concerned" does not say anything, every person I know is at least somewhat concerned.


----------



## PigsDad

Luanne said:


> We have been going to Maui every March for the past few years.  We went this year, right before everything fell to pieces.  We won't be going back until 2022.


Assuming Hawaii will be open for tourists by 2022.    

Kurt


----------



## Pathways

slip said:


> There is a lot of information here but to me the  only surprise is that 43% figure. If it’s correct.



I'm with Ken555, I'd like to see the questions.  As stated, it just says that % wants changes. Half of those might want to see tighter controls.

Also not surprised as the % who gave concerns.  They have sacrificed so much for almost 6 months, but yet the numbers are going up.  Many of us have been around the virus and know numerous friends/family who have contracted/recovered, (also some sadly for whom it didn't go well)  so we are getting used to it.  Those on the islands are kind of in a bubble news wise, and are still counting on  Covid not spreading at all in their neighborhood.


----------



## PearlCity

So i think most people in Hawaii are frustrated. On Oahu they shut hiking trails and beaches and no gatherings of more than outside of your home of more than 5 And no gatherings with folks outside of your household even in your own house. But yet Gyms which have been tied to clusters and the waterpark is still open. Its confusing. 

I happened to be hiking at the exact time the state shut the trails down. I only saw one person on the entire trail not from our group. 

All the while no enforcement of quarantine. And i will say personally- i believe it was residents traveling away and returning home not properly quarantining. As well as essential workers traveling and not properly taking precautions as well...i

Its crazy. 

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----------



## Luanne

PigsDad said:


> Assuming Hawaii will be open for tourists by 2022.
> 
> Kurt


Well, there is that.  If it's not, we'll cancel.


----------



## cman

DannyTS said:


> I would have like to see the actual survey, I do not find the article particularly clear. I did not understand how many people are very concerned, that would show how many people would oppose any measure to open the islands. "Somewhat concerned" does not say anything, every person I know is at least somewhat concerned.


I think this might be it. 








						SMS Community Pulse Survey Dashboard
					

The SMS Community Pulse Survey Dashboard shows the SMS Community Pulse Survey results.




					www.smshawaii.com


----------



## DannyTS

Not good news today: 284  new cases, 5 Oahu hospitals at or near capacity,  Governor considers layoffs, program cuts to address budget crisis









						248 new COVID-19 cases reported, pushing statewide total to 6,600
					

Of the new cases, 228 were on Oahu, eight were on the Big Island and 12 were on Maui.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				












						5 Oahu hospitals at or near capacity as coronavirus infections continue to surge
					

Friday marked the 19th consecutive day that Hawaii saw new COVID-19 infections in the triple digits.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				












						Governor considers layoffs, program cuts to address budget crisis
					

The governor is asking department heads to plan for budget cuts of up to 20% by identifying programs and employees that can be eliminated.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> Not good news today: 284  new cases, 5 Oahu hospitals at or near capacity,  Governor considers layoffs, program cuts to address budget crisis
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 248 new COVID-19 cases reported, pushing statewide total to 6,600
> 
> 
> Of the new cases, 228 were on Oahu, eight were on the Big Island and 12 were on Maui.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 5 Oahu hospitals at or near capacity as coronavirus infections continue to surge
> 
> 
> Friday marked the 19th consecutive day that Hawaii saw new COVID-19 infections in the triple digits.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Governor considers layoffs, program cuts to address budget crisis
> 
> 
> The governor is asking department heads to plan for budget cuts of up to 20% by identifying programs and employees that can be eliminated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com


A 10.9% infection rate. That's not good at all. And the graph below tells us a lot. Note the steady or even slightly increasing Rt value since about July 12, reflecting no success in controlling the virus at all for well over a month now -- so people are not taking precautions and are spreading the infection exponentially. 

All the efforts and sacrifices from March through May were wasted. I don't know if that's the result of the government failing Hawaii's residents miserably, or the residents failing miserably despite the best efforts of the government, or somewhere in between -- but its failing miserably either way, that's for sure. This is the highest spread in the entire United States by a LOT and it's been the highest spread in the US for more than a month straight now. 

Compare with California, shown in part below Hawaii below. There is no way California is doing anything Hawaii cannot do. So why the difference? 

New Zealand reinstituted a total two-week lockdown because 6 cases popped up. Clearly Hawaii needs a complete stay-at-home shutdown for at least two weeks to break this cycle. Everything closed. Everyone home. No going anywhere except absolute essentials -- food and medical care.





California:


----------



## jabberwocky

I agree that Hawaii has missed the boat on this and squandered a lot of time to upgrade their health system capacity and contact tracing.

You are also correct that they are by far the state that is in the most precarious position right now in terms of spread. As you point out, the R value is the highest in the US right now.

I’m not so sure I am agreeing with your assessment of California being the best comparison on the R value basis. If anything CA is mediocre at best. The two states with the best R values currently are Alabama and Arizona. Hardly shining beacons of lock-down behaviour. Even Florida isn’t looking too bad on this metric.

I believe the simplest explanation here is that the early and largely successful efforts to suppress transmission in Hawaii left a lot of people potentially exposed for the eventual arrival. To use a firefighting analogy, by trying to put out every small fire (Complete lockdown and quarantine) rather than using controlled burns (targeted measures coupled with appropriate medical capacity and contact tracing), there has been a lot of dry tinder available for the wildfire to consume.

Locking down with nearly complete isolation, and hoping a vaccine arrives one day may work for New Zealand which has a much more self-sustaining economy, but if the virus gets loose before the vaccine - all hell can break loose - which is what I think we are seeing in Hawaii right now coupled with an economic disaster.

I’m not advocating herd immunity or not trying any targeted public health measures. I do think that complete lockdowns and 14 day mandatory quarantines without testing exceptions are heavy handed and end up backfiring in the long run.


----------



## csodjd

jabberwocky said:


> I agree that Hawaii has missed the boat on this and squandered a lot of time to upgrade their health system capacity and contact tracing.
> 
> You are also correct that they are by far the state that is in the most precarious position right now in terms of spread. As you point out, the R value is the highest in the US right now.
> 
> I’m not so sure I am agreeing with your assessment of California being the best comparison on the R value basis. If anything CA is mediocre at best. The two states with the best R values currently are Alabama and Arizona. Hardly shining beacons of lock-down behaviour. Even Florida isn’t looking too bad on this metric.
> 
> I believe the simplest explanation here is that the early and largely successful efforts to suppress transmission in Hawaii left a lot of people potentially exposed for the eventual arrival. To use a firefighting analogy, by trying to put out every small fire (Complete lockdown and quarantine) rather than using controlled burns (targeted measures coupled with appropriate medical capacity and contact tracing), there has been a lot of dry tinder available for the wildfire to consume.
> 
> Locking down with nearly complete isolation, and hoping a vaccine arrives one day may work for New Zealand which has a much more self-sustaining economy, but if the virus gets loose before the vaccine - all hell can break loose - which is what I think we are seeing in Hawaii right now coupled with an economic disaster.
> 
> I’m not advocating herd immunity or not trying any targeted public health measures. I do think that complete lockdowns and 14 day mandatory quarantines without testing exceptions are heavy handed and end up backfiring in the long run.
> 
> View attachment 25256View attachment 25257View attachment 25258


I didn’t intend to suggest CA was the “best” comparison. Just an example from a place that I think SHOULD be much more difficult to deal with than Hawaii. Hawaii has complete control over its ingress. Nobody is arriving they don’t know about. Managing an epidemic in CA ought to be far more challenging than in Hawaii. My point was that EVEN California was doing better. 

I personally don’t think it was leaving a lot of people vulnerable is the problem, I think the early success left a lot of people complacent and feeling invulnerable. I suspect — I have no real proof of this, but suspect — we’ll find that Hawaii failed to adequately implement testing and contact tracing and THAT’s the reason they are where they are. 

But whatever it is that got them there, they MUST act aggressively to stop the spread or Hawaii is looking at months of overwhelming illness and failure of their healthcare. People will die that should not have died because of lack of access to care. So they need to get their **** together fast, and I don’t think that can be done with surgical measures, it needs a sledgehammer.


----------



## PigsDad

@jabberwocky, can you share a link to where you find those R value graphs by state?  Thanks!

Kurt


----------



## jabberwocky

Sure thing.

https://rt.live/us/


----------



## Ken555

jabberwocky said:


> Sure thing.
> 
> https://rt.live/us/



For reference, this is the site I posted several times in previous months in other threads. It was discounted by several people for not being trustworthy since the people behind it are in the tech field and not bio.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> For reference, this is the site I posted several times in previous months in other threads. It was discounted by several people for not being trustworthy since the people behind it are in the tech field and not bio.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Well, there's also this data from Univ. of Washington, which displays graphically what we're all reading in the paper.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> Well, there's also this data from Univ. of Washington, which displays graphically what we're all reading in the paper.



Oh, *I* believe rt.live is fairly accurate.


----------



## DannyTS

The small businesses have been affected pretty hard in Hawaii. 









__





						Business News - Latest Headlines on CNN Business - CNN
					

View the latest business news about the world’s top companies, and explore articles on global markets, finance, tech, and the innovations driving us forward.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## controller1

It doesn't look real good for those who have been discussing herd immunity as a way of dealing with Coronavirus.









						Hong Kong man becomes first patient to be reinfected with coronavirus, researchers say
					

The finding suggests that some patients who recover from COVID-19 may have only short-lived immunity to reinfection.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## csodjd

controller1 said:


> It doesn't look real good for those who have been discussing herd immunity as a way of dealing with Coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hong Kong man becomes first patient to be reinfected with coronavirus, researchers say
> 
> 
> The finding suggests that some patients who recover from COVID-19 may have only short-lived immunity to reinfection.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com


If the findings of this are true, we'd expect to see a pretty good number of reinfections popping up. So I wouldn't get too invested in a single case. When we have credible science of 50 cases then we're on to something (of concern).


----------



## DannyTS

controller1 said:


> It doesn't look real good for those who have been discussing herd immunity as a way of dealing with Coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hong Kong man becomes first patient to be reinfected with coronavirus, researchers say
> 
> 
> The finding suggests that some patients who recover from COVID-19 may have only short-lived immunity to reinfection.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com


I am cautious when I read news from China about Covid. Could it be a case of false positive either in March or now? Especially in March, the tests were not as reliable as they are today (still not 100%)
The patient was asymptomatic mid - August and had very mild symptoms in March. Why was he hospitalized twice? This might be standard procedure in HK though, I do not know.

I read that _in theory_ it is not impossible for somebody to be reinfected with Covid (and other viruses) but it may be such a rare event that it is not significant enough  to alter public heath decisions. *So far we have 26 million infections confirmed worldwide. How many reinfections?* I read about less than 100 cases. Even _if_ they are not due to false positives, they are so rare it does not make a difference. Remember, vaccines are not 100% effective either.

The article also says "While immunity was not enough to block reinfection, it protected the person from disease." We also do not know if the person would shed enough virus to infect others. I do not see how this does not look good for those that discuss herd immunity.


----------



## DeniseM

Friendly reminder - let's keep this thread focused on C19 in Hawaii.  If you have other info to share (China) please post it in the TUG lounge in the general thread.


----------



## JIMinNC

controller1 said:


> It doesn't look real good for those who have been discussing herd immunity as a way of dealing with Coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hong Kong man becomes first patient to be reinfected with coronavirus, researchers say
> 
> 
> The finding suggests that some patients who recover from COVID-19 may have only short-lived immunity to reinfection.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com



After reading this article in its entirety, it strikes me as a prime example of the irresponsible way many in the media are reporting on this pandemic. Some ALWAYS lead with the scary stories & the bad news. This is one case out of 23 million and it seems he didn't actually get sick, but the virus was found in his system. As I read it, there's more good news there than bad, but you wouldn't know it from the headline, subhead, and lead paragraphs.

There have been similar "if it bleeds it leads" stories about what is happening in Hawaii as well. NO question that Hawaii is facing a serious up tick in cases that must be slowed, but it seems there is a dearth of balanced reporting on this whole episode. It's either some in the media seeming to fan the hysteria, or others who seem in denial that this is a serious health issue.


----------



## DavidnRobin

Math Question:
If a lily pad duplicates itself daily, and it takes 60 days for the lily pads to fully cover a pond - on what day is the pond 25% full of lily pads? 50%?
(extra credit for 3.125% coverage?)

(then replace ‘lily pad’ with ‘people with a virus’, and ‘pond’ with ‘Maui’)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## cman

DavidnRobin said:


> Math Question:
> If a lily pad duplicates itself daily, and it takes 60 days for the lily pads to fully cover a pond - on what day is the pond 25% full of lily pads? 50%?
> (extra credit for 3.125% coverage?)
> 
> (then replace ‘lily pad’ with ‘people with a virus’, and ‘pond’ with ‘Maui’)
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


If I understand the question correctly, it would be 50% full on the 59th day, and 25% full on the 58th day.


----------



## jabberwocky

And 3.125% on day 55.


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## DavidnRobin

We have a Winner!
I was going to make it duplicate every 3 days - and remove the number of days for the pond to be full.

I was wondering how many here that keep expounding their scientific opinions (or put forth papers they don’t really understand) without being able to solve this simple question.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Tamaradarann

DavidnRobin said:


> We have a Winner!
> I was going to make it duplicate every 3 days - and remove the number of days for the pond to be full.
> 
> I was wondering how many here that keep expounding their scientific opinions (or put forth papers they don’t really understand) without being able to solve this simple question.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



You posted this as a Math Question, however, you certainly posted this with much more Coronavirus Spread meaning that just a Math Question.  To control the spread of infection there is always discussions about the importance of identification, quarantining, and tracing those that are infected.  Solving this Math Question certainly points out how this virus can spread out of control very quickly to very big numbers if there isn't identification, quarantining and tracing of those that are infected in the early days when it is still controllable.


----------



## DannyTS

*Beaches, Parks, Trails Closed? Honolulu Mayor’s COVID-19 Rules Defy Science, Experts Say*










						Beaches, Parks, Trails Closed? Honolulu Mayor's COVID-19 Rules Defy Science, Experts Say
					

Epidemiologists say keeping beaches, parks and hiking trails shut down without justification could backfire, driving people indoors and increasing distrust in government at a critical time.




					www.civilbeat.org


----------



## csodjd

The Governor just issued a stay-at-home order for two weeks, starting Thursday, for Oahu. That should go a long way toward containing the outbreak. They are also greatly increasing testing and tracing. I didn't see any other solution because they let it get out of control. In two weeks the "new cases" should drop very low. All they need to do from there is test and trace!









						Governor signs off on ‘stay-at-home’ order for Oahu that goes into effect tonight
					

It comes as the island prepares for another “stay-at-home” order.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> All they need to do from there is test and trace!



Odds on this being done correctly and sufficiently?


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> Odds on this being done correctly and sufficiently?


Well, one can only hope they learned how well it works when not done correctly and will do better next time around.


----------



## klpca

Well, this now really hits home. My uncle on the Big Island was just diagnosed with a very serious condition but cannot be transferred to Honolulu because of the covid risk. Talk about feeling helpless. He needs more treatment than he can really get on the BI, yet the covid outbreak has made it just too risky. So they will do their best at the local hospital.

My aunt died, alone, in the hospital in March (not covid, but alone because of covid). Now my uncle is very sick, can't get the "normal" care he needs, and I can't get there to see him either. It is just so frustrating. Btw he is very healthy and in his early 70's. None of us thought that he would be much affected by covid as he lives in a remote area. Such an unexpected, unpleasant surprise.


----------



## csodjd

klpca said:


> Well, this now really hits home. My uncle on the Big Island was just diagnosed with a very serious condition but cannot be transferred to Honolulu because of the covid risk. Talk about feeling helpless. He needs more treatment than he can really get on the BI, yet the covid outbreak has made it just too risky. So they will do their best at the local hospital.
> 
> My aunt died, alone, in the hospital in March (not covid, but alone because of covid). Now my uncle is very sick, can't get the "normal" care he needs, and I can't get there to see him either. It is just so frustrating. Btw he is very healthy and in his early 70's. None of us thought that he would be much affected by covid as he lives in a remote area. Such an unexpected, unpleasant surprise.


Seems the COVID risk is worth taking. I think the risk in a case like that is far more manageable (he'll be handled by professionals, it's not like he's going to a bar or will be around unmasked and careless people), and must be weighed against the risk of NOT obtaining the care that's needed.


----------



## klpca

csodjd said:


> Seems the COVID risk is worth taking. I think the risk in a case like that is far more manageable (he'll be handled by professionals, it's not like he's going to a bar or will be around unmasked and careless people), and must be weighed against the risk of NOT obtaining the care that's needed.


I am not included in the decision making. They just aren't willing to medevac him. Initially he was supposed to be moved then it was just changed today. I am not sure why, but I suppose that the doctors have made the decision based upon his condition (could be good or could be bad, I suppose). Like I said it is really frustrating.


----------



## JanT

I'm so sorry for the loss of your aunt earlier this year and am so very sorry to hear your uncle is so sick and can't get the treatment he needs.  Covid-19 and the resulting chaos is simply stunning.  Sending prayers for your uncle and for you.



klpca said:


> I am not included in the decision making. They just aren't willing to medevac him. Initially he was supposed to be moved then it was just changed today. I am not sure why, but I suppose that the doctors have made the decision based upon his condition (could be good or could be bad, I suppose). Like I said it is really frustrating.


----------



## DannyTS

Did the governor explain what  will be achieved after two weeks? I guess he did not.


----------



## Luanne

klpca said:


> I am not included in the decision making. They just aren't willing to medevac him. Initially he was supposed to be moved then it was just changed today. I am not sure why, but I suppose that the doctors have made the decision based upon his condition (could be good or could be bad, I suppose). Like I said it is really frustrating.


I'm so sorry for the pain and frustration you and your family are going through.


----------



## slip

DannyTS said:


> Did the governor explain what  will be achieved after two weeks? I guess he did not.



The Mayor mentioned lowering the daily new case number. That is the goal of the stay at home order.


----------



## PearlCity

slip said:


> The Mayor mentioned lowering the daily new case number. That is the goal of the stay at home order.


I think they are saying hospitals are at or near capacity so i guess lower numbers and less stress on the hospitals?

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


----------



## slip

PearlCity said:


> I think they are saying hospitals are at or near capacity so i guess lower numbers and less stress on the hospitals?
> 
> Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk



Yes, they would go hand in hand.


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> Did the governor explain what  will be achieved after two weeks? I guess he did not.


It makes sense, though I'd have gone a bit longer just for margin. But if the incubation is 2 weeks, if new exposures stop tomorrow, it'll take up to two weeks for everyone NOW exposed to either get sick or become non-infectious. CDC says that 10 days after onset of symptoms and 1-day of no fever, you're not infectious anymore. So the two-week order allows all the infections to appear, and no further spread to occur. It SHOULD result in a rapid reduction in cases at about day 9-10 since most cases appear before that, with the new cases then being only from the essential workers that are careless.


----------



## PearlCity

csodjd said:


> It makes sense, though I'd have gone a bit longer just for margin. But if the incubation is 2 weeks, if new exposures stop tomorrow, it'll take up to two weeks for everyone NOW exposed to either get sick or become non-infectious. CDC says that 10 days after onset of symptoms and 1-day of no fever, you're not infectious anymore. So the two-week order allows all the infections to appear, and no further spread to occur. It SHOULD result in a rapid reduction in cases at about day 9-10 since most cases appear before that, with the new cases then being only from the essential workers that are careless.


It may get extended. He essentially shut beaches and hiking trails 2 weeks ago and restricted gatherings to groups of 5 or less last week. Most people have been staying home already 

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

PearlCity said:


> It may get extended. He essentially shut beaches and hiking trails 2 weeks ago and restricted gatherings to groups of 5 or less last week. Most people have been staying home already
> 
> Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


It may. But if it is complied with, it should actually do the trick and shouldn't have to be. And if they put testing and REAL contact tracing on the back end of it, they should be back to < 10 cases a day within 2-3 weeks and be able to keep it there. This gives Hawaii its BEST chance of being able to "open" come October 1 because by Sept. 15 the case counts should be what they were a couple months ago.


----------



## Tamaradarann

klpca said:


> I am not included in the decision making. They just aren't willing to medevac him. Initially he was supposed to be moved then it was just changed today. I am not sure why, but I suppose that the doctors have made the decision based upon his condition (could be good or could be bad, I suppose). Like I said it is really frustrating.



With the high number of Coronavirus Cases on Oahu and as Pearl City stated on this thread that hospitals are at or near capacity perhaps they figure that it is better to keep him on Hawaii Island, which has less Coronaviurs cases and hospital overcrowding, than to add to the Oahu Hospitals case load and increase the danger of infection from Coronavirus.  If you haven't asked about the reason for the decision not to move him I would, at least it may ease your mind that the decision has a care based reason not just a whim.


----------



## DannyTS

DavidnRobin said:


> Math Question:
> If a lily pad duplicates itself daily, and it takes 60 days for the lily pads to fully cover a pond - on what day is the pond 25% full of lily pads? 50%?
> (extra credit for 3.125% coverage?)
> 
> (then replace ‘lily pad’ with ‘people with a virus’, and ‘pond’ with ‘Maui’)
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Now replace ‘lily pad’ with ‘people with a virus’, and ‘pond’ with ‘Maui’. Do you see why it is not the same thing?


----------



## klpca

Tamaradarann said:


> With the high number of Coronavirus Cases on Oahu and as Pearl City stated on this thread that hospitals are at or near capacity perhaps they figure that it is better to keep him on Hawaii Island, which has less Coronaviurs cases and hospital overcrowding, than to add to the Oahu Hospitals case load and increase the danger of infection from Coronavirus.  If you haven't asked about the reason for the decision not to move him I would, at least it may ease your mind that the decision has a care based reason not just a whim.


I completely trust the folks making this decision (doctors and family) but it was both a surprise as it was opposite of what we had been told in the morning, as well as a sobering reminder of how much covid has changed people's lives. I can't wait for this nightmare to be over.


----------



## csodjd

klpca said:


> I completely trust the folks making this decision (doctors and family) but it was both a surprise as it was opposite of what we had been told in the morning, as well as a sobering reminder of how much covid has changed people's lives. I can't wait for this nightmare to be over.


There are a lot of factors that affect patient transfers. First and foremost is the risk to the patient -- can he/she safely be moved. But at the other end there needs to be a bed available and a receiving physician that will/can take the patient. I'm engaged in defending a malpractice case right now where a patient died before he could be transferred because there was no bed available yet at the receiving facility. My client secured a physician to receive the patient but by the time the call came that there was a bed in the unit the patient had to go to his condition had deteriorated and they couldn't move him. Adding to it all, because the transfer was from a contracted hospital to a non-contracted one the transfer had to be approved by the IPA then a "letter of agreement" addressing payment had to be entered into between the IPA and the hospital before the receiving hospital would even accept the patient.

As I understand it in Hawaii right now they have a problem with care providers, not beds. They are short doctors and nurses. Maybe that played a role in the decision, maybe not. My point is simply that things go on behind the scenes, it's not as simple as just transferring a patient, irrespective of COVID.


----------



## klpca

csodjd said:


> There are a lot of factors that affect patient transfers. First and foremost is the risk to the patient -- can he/she safely be moved. But at the other end there needs to be a bed available and a receiving physician that will/can take the patient. I'm engaged in defending a malpractice case right now where a patient died before he could be transferred because there was no bed available yet at the receiving facility. My client secured a physician to receive the patient but by the time the call came that there was a bed in the unit the patient had to go to his condition had deteriorated and they couldn't move him. Adding to it all, because the transfer was from a contracted hospital to a non-contracted one the transfer had to be approved by the IPA then a "letter of agreement" addressing payment had to be entered into between the IPA and the hospital before the receiving hospital would even accept the patient.
> 
> As I understand it in Hawaii right now they have a problem with care providers, not beds. They are short doctors and nurses. Maybe that played a role in the decision, maybe not. My point is simply that things go on behind the scenes, it's not as simple as just transferring a patient, irrespective of COVID.


Very interesting.


----------



## SandyPGravel

Deleted, apparently this wasn't as "new" news as ABC made it appear


----------



## Tamaradarann

klpca said:


> Very interesting.



I clearly don't have the knowledge or background of csodjd, but it might be worth it to ask the question why he is not being transferred.  Are you named as the Health Care Proxy?


----------



## DeniseM

The OP said it isn't their decision.


----------



## klpca

Tamaradarann said:


> I clearly don't have the knowledge or background of csodjd, but it might be worth it to ask the question why he is not being transferred.  Are you named as the Health Care Proxy?


No, I'm just receiving the info. His family has it under control. But covid was the reason given. I am sure that there is a lot going on the the background that I am not aware of. I also assume that they have his best interest at heart.


----------



## Tamaradarann

klpca said:


> No, I'm just receiving the info. His family has it under control. But covid was the reason given. I am sure that there is a lot going on the the background that I am not aware of. I also assume that they have his best interest at heart.



Well my husband and I are not going to Honolulu right now to stay in our Condo due to the virus.  We certainly wouldn't want to be going there to go into a Hospital where there are COVID-19 patients.  Perhaps keeping him on the Island of Hawaii is best.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Well my husband and I are not going to Honolulu right now to stay in our Condo due to the virus.  We certainly wouldn't want to be going there to go into a Hospital where there are COVID-19 patients.  Perhaps keeping him on the Island of Hawaii is best.


Eh... a hospital with COVID patients is probably a lot safer than a bar or musty restaurant.


----------



## csodjd

klpca said:


> No, I'm just receiving the info. His family has it under control. But covid was the reason given. I am sure that there is a lot going on the the background that I am not aware of. I also assume that they have his best interest at heart.


Again... my experience is that the doctors and health care providers absolutely do all they can for the patient and what's best for the patient. But they sometimes encounter "business" and practical hurdles that frustrate them as much as anyone. I'd also say that, while one can ask the reason, it's not likely you'll get a true answer if the reason is something they'd rather not talk about, like "couldn't agree to payment terms" or something like that.


----------



## WVBaker

This will take in effect on Thursday at 12:01 a.m. for the next two weeks.








						WATCH: Gov. Ige approves stay-at-home, work-from-home order
					

HONOLULU (KHON2) — Governor David Ige has approved a stay-at-home, work-from-home order for the island of Oahu. This will take in effect on Thursday at 12:01 a.m. for the next two weeks. Emer…




					www.khon2.com


----------



## slip

Don’t be surprised if this is extended.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> Don’t be surprised if this is extended.


With the hugely increased testing we/they should get a way better handle on what's going on. It may be necessary to extend it a week or two, but that ought to be sufficient given the testing and the two-week incubation -- IF -- people are compliant, wear masks when out, etc.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> With the hugely increased testing we/they should get a way better handle on what's going on. It may be necessary to extend it a week or two, but that ought to be sufficient given the testing and the two-week incubation -- IF -- people are compliant, wear masks when out, etc.



I’ll just say I’m not holding my breath.


----------



## rickandcindy23

We have friends who have been on Oahu for several years, and they are now moving to Maui for a great job opportunity for him, and so she is on Oahu in their home, he is on Maui, living in a rented room in a house.  They have dogs, and she cannot move their stuff herself, so she is in quite a pickle right now.  Their house is sold, no help from him because of the quarantine between islands.  I guess she will have to pay money to movers to get her moved over to Maui.  

I know it could be worse, but they are a fairly young couple, and I feel badly they may be separated for what may be a long time with this restriction in place.  It was good for a while because she was going back and forth for visits.  Now she needs to go and stay put with him, but he has to find a house to buy without her.  Such a strange circumstance.


----------



## dsmrp

Selfishly, I wish they didn't extend the inter-island quarantine requirement. It was due to expire Aug 31. I found only 1 Hawaii website updated with this extension. The other county websites still list Aug 31 date, which can be misleading to those considering inter-island flights.

Would have been a great way to use my limited use Hyatt points and see the Hyatt Maui resort to boot. Oh well, Maui Covid counts are going up a lot too....


----------



## DannyTS

it seems that Hawaiians are starting to question what is going on









						Akina, Perry discuss Hawaii's 'state secrets'
					

Gov. David Ige's secretive decision-making during the coronavirus crisis has caught the attention of journalists throughout Hawaii, including Michael W. Perry, the state's most popular radio personality, who yesterday, Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2020, interviewed Grassroot Institute of Hawaii President Kel




					www.grassrootinstitute.org


----------



## rickandcindy23

"...the public are losing confidence in their government's leaders."  Yep.  

Good interview, and so true.  More people are questioning whether the cost of losing businesses is worth it.  I feel badly for Hawaii.  Will Hawaii ever recover from this?


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Eh... a hospital with COVID patients is probably a lot safer than a bar or musty restaurant.


Perhaps, so we are not going into bars, musty restaurants, planes, buses, trains, stores, supermarkets, big box stores etc.  We get delivery or pick-up outside the store if we need stuff.


----------



## Tamaradarann

DannyTS said:


> it seems that Hawaiians are starting to question what is going on
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Akina, Perry discuss Hawaii's 'state secrets'
> 
> 
> Gov. David Ige's secretive decision-making during the coronavirus crisis has caught the attention of journalists throughout Hawaii, including Michael W. Perry, the state's most popular radio personality, who yesterday, Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2020, interviewed Grassroot Institute of Hawaii President Kel
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.grassrootinstitute.org



I do question it also.  Hawaii had such good numbers just a month or two ago.  What happened?  How did the virus spread which was down to 1 or 2 a day grow out of control?   I believe one answer is one of two groups:  One is the EXCEPTIONS for people coming to the islands from the Continental United States:  the military, flight personnel, and essential contracted personal didn't have to quarantine.  Second thought is returning residents and tourist who violated the 14 day quarantine periods.  

I don't have an answer to how to deal with this issue in the future, but if and when the number return to the way they were they do need to deal with them or why bother getting the numbers down, they will just go up again until the numbers from off the islands go way down.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I do question it also.  Hawaii had such good numbers just a month or two ago.  What happened?  How did the virus spread which was down to 1 or 2 a day grow out of control?   I believe one answer is one of two groups:  One is the EXCEPTIONS for people coming to the islands from the Continental United States:  the military, flight personnel, and essential contracted personal didn't have to quarantine.  Second thought is returning residents and tourist who violated the 14 day quarantine periods.
> 
> I don't have an answer to how to deal with this issue in the future, but if and when the number return to the way they were they do need to deal with them or why bother getting the numbers down, they will just go up again until the numbers from off the islands go way down.


You may have missed the real culprit. If Hawaii wasn’t doing adequate testing and, especially, contact tracing there may have been more cases out there than being reported, and worse yet, more becoming infected and not knowing. Isolation isn’t really the tool for controlling a virus, it’s testing to find people that have it, and contact tracing to find people that have it, before they spread it. I believe Hawaii, and especially Oahu, may well have been like NY and Washington (state) were in Jan-Feb, spreading virus around completely unaware it was happening — except they knew better.


----------



## pedro47

How much have the Hawaii economy loss since the COVID-!9 started this year ?
Are Hawaiian leaving the state and relocating to mainland USA or other countries?


----------



## PearlCity

pedro47 said:


> How much have the Hawaii economy loss since the COVID-!9 started this year ?
> Are Hawaiian leaving the state and relocating to mainland USA or other countries?


Not yet. Right now with a block on evictions the impact hasnt been felt yet. The other thing is most folks live in multi family multi generational homes. But...i predict in 2021/2022 some folks will start moving. 

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS

Also government furloughs and budget cuts will add to the pain in the future, not reflected in the numbers yet.


----------



## pedro47

PearlCity said:


> Not yet. Right now with a block on evictions the impact hasnt been felt yet. The other thing is most folks live in multi family multi generational homes. But...i predict in 2021/2022 some folks will start moving.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


Thanks


----------



## pedro47

DannyTS said:


> Also government furloughs and budget cuts will add to the pain in the future, not reflected in the numbers yet.


Thanks.
Are their many Hawaiian  employed by the federal government ?


----------



## PearlCity

pedro47 said:


> Thanks.
> Are their many Hawaiian employed by the federal government ?


Yes. The military has a big presence and is a huge part of the economy. Hawaii is part of the US due to strategic location in the Pacific, which i think the US realized after WWII. I believe thats why we are a state vs some of the other island territories and commonwealths. I also think that is why the surgeon general is on island right now. I believe if we were just a tourist destination the federal government would not be paying as much attention to us here in Hawaii. 









						As tourism stalls, military spending continues to boost Hawaii’s economy
					

One of the remaining pillars of Hawaii’s economy — federal spending, including military — continues to prop up the tourist-depleted Aloha State, with the Defense Department so far resistant to the devastating financial effects of the coronavirus, which have resulted in a jobless rate of 22%.




					www.staradvertiser.com
				












						Military Impact in Hawaii - Chamber of Commerce Hawaii
					






					www.cochawaii.org
				




Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> You may have missed the real culprit. If Hawaii wasn’t doing adequate testing and, especially, contact tracing there may have been more cases out there than being reported, and worse yet, more becoming infected and not knowing. Isolation isn’t really the tool for controlling a virus, it’s testing to find people that have it, and contact tracing to find people that have it, before they spread it. I believe Hawaii, and especially Oahu, may well have been like NY and Washington (state) were in Jan-Feb, spreading virus around completely unaware it was happening — except they knew better.



It could be true that the virus was on Oahu spreading around with them not being aware.  However, if they do get the virus under control then what?  If they continue to let the groups of people from areas that have high virus spread come without testing and quarantining then what I said above would be the culprit.  Furthermore, I forgot to mention something that Pearl City just reminded me of in te 12:28 post.  Returning residents that live in households with other people that didn't travel have an excellent opportunity to bring in the virus and contribute to the community spread.

I agree that testing and contact tracing is necessary to prevent the spread of the virus.  However, my family will continue to isolate, social distance, wear masks, disinfect, and wash our hands to try to prevent the spread of the virus.


----------



## Tamaradarann

pedro47 said:


> Thanks.
> Are their many Hawaiian  employed by the federal government ?



The Federal Government and the Military employ a huge amount of people in Hawaii.  Since furloughs were mentioned in the post you replied to I want to interject that  I don't think that those are a major concern for furloughs in Hawaii.  It is the State and County Governments.


----------



## PearlCity

Tamaradarann said:


> The Federal Government and the Military employ a huge amount of people in Hawaii. Since furloughs were mentioned in the post you replied to I want to interject that I don't think that those are a major concern for furloughs in Hawaii. It is the State and County Governments.


Correct!! There is no talk for furloughs for federal employees. Its the local government employees. 

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> It could be true that the virus was on Oahu spreading around with them not being aware.  However, if they do get the virus under control then what?  If they continue to let the groups of people from areas that have high virus spread come without testing and quarantining then what I said above would be the culprit.  Furthermore, I forgot to mention something that Pearl City just reminded me of in te 12:28 post.  Returning residents that live in households with other people that didn't travel have an excellent opportunity to bring in the virus and contribute to the community spread.
> 
> I agree that testing and contact tracing is necessary to prevent the spread of the virus.  However, my family will continue to isolate, social distance, wear masks, disinfect, and wash our hands to try to prevent the spread of the virus.


There's a distinction between catching or giving someone the virus, which your actions will go a long way to achieve, and addressing epidemiological spread. Assuming you do all the right things, but are infected somehow nonetheless and show some symptoms, the KEY then to preventing spread into the community is to know who you've been around and get them tested so as to isolate any breakout and limit its reach. Similarly, if you do all the right things, and you get a call saying you came into contact with someone that was infectious at the time, you'd want to get tested even though your precautions probably protected you, because maybe they didn't. That's the testing/contact tracing part of the puzzle, your personal precautions notwithstanding.


----------



## TheHappyWanderer

Ken555 said:


> Yeah, but what year?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


That's exactly what I was thinking unfortunately.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> There's a distinction between catching or giving someone the virus, which your actions will go a long way to achieve, and addressing epidemiological spread. Assuming you do all the right things, but are infected somehow nonetheless and show some symptoms, the KEY then to preventing spread into the community is to know who you've been around and get them tested so as to isolate any breakout and limit its reach. Similarly, if you do all the right things, and you get a call saying you came into contact with someone that was infectious at the time, you'd want to get tested even though your precautions probably protected you, because maybe they didn't. That's the testing/contact tracing part of the puzzle, your personal precautions notwithstanding.
> 
> We come from a different place than you do.  Since it has been stated that the virus can be transmitted from surfaces such as boxes, mail, food containers etc. for up to 3 days we wash everything with a Clorox soap solution when it comes into the garage and then keep it in quarantine for 3 days.  If we were to be concerned with tracing we would be worrying about if those that came in contact with the boxes, mail, and food containers in one of the post offices that our mail went through, Fed Ex facilies and driver, UPS facilities and driver, supermarket, Sam's, Walmart, Target where our food comes from came down with the virus.  We just assume they did and take sanitizing precautions without worrying about getting tested.


----------



## JIMinNC

Tamaradarann said:


> We come from a different place than you do. Since it has been stated that the virus can be transmitted from surfaces such as boxes, mail, food containers etc. for up to 3 days we wash everything with a Clorox soap solution when it comes into the garage and then keep it in quarantine for 3 days. If we were to be concerned with tracing we would be worrying about if those that came in contact with the boxes, mail, and food containers in one of the post offices that our mail went through, Fed Ex facilies and driver, UPS facilities and driver, supermarket, Sam's, Walmart, Target where our food comes from came down with the virus. We just assume they did and take sanitizing precautions without worrying about getting tested.



Most of what I've read recently is that, in the real world, the chances of catching the virus from boxes, mail, food packaging, etc. are extremely low. I think both CDC and WHO have now said this. Most of the news articles about that early in the spring stemmed from laboratory studies about what is theoretically possible. In the real world, however, I think most of the science now says there is very little risk of catching the virus from your UPS delivery.

Even casual passing of someone outside on the street, or even brief passing inside, is fairly low risk. The risk goes up with close contact/conversation for a period of time or spending time inside in a poorly ventilated space - just like most other viruses.


----------



## ljmiii

JIMinNC said:


> Most of what I've read recently is that, in the real world, the chances of catching the virus from boxes, mail, food packaging, etc. are extremely low....


What JIMinNC said. In the absence of better information scientists looked at the longevity of SARS-CoV-2 on various surfaces and came up with timeframes from 24-72 hours. And longer than that in low temperature environments like freezers. But prolonged exposure to infected people and/or contaminated ventilation systems seems to be the source of most transmission.

In the beginning we disinfected or quarantined everything entering our house. Groceries were the biggest annoyance. We still do for most mail and shipped packages because almost zero != zero and there is no downside. But that well might be considered an excess of caution.


----------



## DannyTS

they finally have an online screening process. The fact that it took them so long for a relatively simple matter is showing why everything is taking forever









						Travelers flying into Hawaii will be required to complete Safe Travels application
					

The Safe Travels application, starting Tuesday, will become the newest mandatory requirement for travelers flying into Hawaii.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## jabberwocky

DannyTS said:


> they finally have an online screening process. The fact that it took them so long for a relatively simple matter is showing why everything is taking forever
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Travelers flying into Hawaii will be required to complete Safe Travels application
> 
> 
> The Safe Travels application, starting Tuesday, will become the newest mandatory requirement for travelers flying into Hawaii.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com


So how would this work for families with children?  Would they have multiple QR code’s on a single device?  

There are six of us in our family and only two cell phones. I this far have refused to get our oldest two cell phones, even though they are (or more accurately we’re) the only kids attending school who did not have cell phones - at least according to our kids.


----------



## cman

jabberwocky said:


> So how would this work for families with children?  Would they have multiple QR code’s on a single device?
> 
> There are six of us in our family and only two cell phones. I this far have refused to get our oldest two cell phones, even though they are (or more accurately we’re) the only kids attending school who did not have cell phones - at least according to our kids.


Looks like you just add kids as additional travel party members. From their website;

*HOW DO I CREATE A TRIP?*

Select the *Trips* icon on the Home Screen.
Select *+Add Trip.*
Fill in Trip Details.
Fill in your designated Quarantine Location while in Hawaii.
In the *Additional Travel Party Members* section, check the minors who will be travelling with you (minors only need to be added under one adult trip).









						Safe Travels Help
					

The Safe Travels Hawaii program is a multilayered process designed to protect the health and safety of our visitors and residents alike from the spread of COVID-19.  A 5-day mandatory quarantine will be required for travelers who do not participate […]




					ets.hawaii.gov


----------



## amy241

jabberwocky said:


> So how would this work for families with children?  Would they have multiple QR code’s on a single device?
> 
> There are six of us in our family and only two cell phones. I this far have refused to get our oldest two cell phones, even though they are (or more accurately we’re) the only kids attending school who did not have cell phones - at least according to our kids.



It appears to allow you to add children under the age of 18 as travelers to your account. But any adult must have a separate account. So perhaps the wife registers and adds the kids and then the husband signs up separately. I went through it and registered last night but have no minor children any longer so 
omitted that section.


----------



## Tamaradarann

DannyTS said:


> they finally have an online screening process. The fact that it took them so long for a relatively simple matter is showing why everything is taking forever
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Travelers flying into Hawaii will be required to complete Safe Travels application
> 
> 
> The Safe Travels application, starting Tuesday, will become the newest mandatory requirement for travelers flying into Hawaii.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com



I am also not impressed nor do I understand the big deal they are making about a relatively simple system that may provide the arrival people informaton but not fullfill the wants and needs of visitors.

For example, another TUG member asked on another thread if it gave confirmation that you have completed the 14 day quarantine.  Well the system certainly has the capability to do that if it has been programed into the system.  So by giving them the QR code will all of Hawaii know like the Hotels, Timeshares, Rent a Car etc. that you have completed the 14 day quarantine period so you can function while in Hawaii?  Will they have access to the App or can you show them the necessary information on your phone?

Furthermore, the system doesn't provide a system which most visitors are interested in and waiting for which is one that will allow them to avoid the 14 day quarantine!


----------



## pedro47

cman said:


> Looks like you just add kids as additional travel party members. From their website;
> 
> *HOW DO I CREATE A TRIP?*
> 
> Select the *Trips* icon on the Home Screen.
> Select *+Add Trip.*
> Fill in Trip Details.
> Fill in your designated Quarantine Location while in Hawaii.
> In the *Additional Travel Party Members* section, check the minors who will be travelling with you (minors only need to be added under one adult trip).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Safe Travels Help
> 
> 
> The Safe Travels Hawaii program is a multilayered process designed to protect the health and safety of our visitors and residents alike from the spread of COVID-19.  A 5-day mandatory quarantine will be required for travelers who do not participate […]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ets.hawaii.gov


Government site would not load


----------



## Tamaradarann

pedro47 said:


> Government site would not load



I would be disappointed if using the site would enable one to get tested for the Coronavirus before flying and then not have to quarantine.  As it is the site doesn't satisfy my needs so whether it loads or not may give the Hawaiian Governmental Departments concerns but not me.


----------



## DannyTS

Tamaradarann said:


> I would be disappointed if using the site would enable one to get tested for the Coronavirus before flying and then not have to quarantine.  As it is the site doesn't satisfy my needs so whether it loads or not may give the Hawaiian Governmental Departments concerns but not me.



Do you believe that those with a negative test should still quarantine? Have you looked at Alaska that implemented such a policy a while ago? I did not see anything alarming in their numbers.


----------



## ljmiii

DannyTS said:


> Do you believe that those with a negative test should still quarantine? Have you looked at Alaska that implemented such a policy a while ago? I did not see anything alarming in their numbers.


Alaska allowed testing in lieu of quarantine starting on June 6th. There was a rise from the 1-4 cases each day that they had been seeing since late April to the high teens. At the end of June cases started rising swiftly to peaks of 141 on Jul 22nd and 137 on Aug 1st. Since then testing has fallen off and at least partially as a result so have cases which are now in the high 70s and low 80s (all these numbers are 7-day averages). Hospitalizations have risen since June 6th as have deaths. There is no question that Alaska did better in the period from the end of April to June 6th than it has done since. And also no question that they are still doing better than most of the country (though worse than Hawaii).

On the other side, I haven't been able to find any website that shows 'real time' visitor data like the Hawaii Tourism Authority does. There are visitor summary reports for 2019 (and years prior) that show number of people, dollars added to the economy, etc. but nothing on 2020. I've found anecdotal stories about 'Tourism way down', 'Will anyone come this summer', etc. but nothing concrete.

All that said, whether or not allowing visitors into Alaska without quarantine was 'worth it' seems to be in the eye of the beholder.


----------



## DannyTS

ljmiii said:


> Alaska allowed testing in lieu of quarantine starting on June 6th. There was a rise from the 1-4 cases each day that they had been seeing since late April to the high teens. At the end of June cases started rising swiftly to peaks of 141 on Jul 22nd and 137 on Aug 1st. Since then testing has fallen off and at least partially as a result so have cases which are now in the high 70s and low 80s (all these numbers are 7-day averages). Hospitalizations have risen since June 6th as have deaths. There is no question that Alaska did better in the period from the end of April to June 6th than it has done since. And also no question that they are still doing better than most of the country (though worse than Hawaii).
> 
> On the other side, I haven't been able to find any website that shows 'real time' visitor data like the Hawaii Tourism Authority does. There are visitor summary reports for 2019 (and years prior) that show number of people, dollars added to the economy, etc. but nothing on 2020. I've found anecdotal stories about 'Tourism way down', 'Will anyone come this summer', etc. but nothing concrete.
> 
> All that said, whether or not allowing visitors into Alaska was 'worth it' seems to be in the eye of the beholder.
> 
> View attachment 25657



I think Alaska's increases are more or less in line with what happened across US, people have  been more mobile at the beginning of the summer especially after being locked down before. I do not think we have any data to attribute it to the visitors. The best number to follow is deaths, again I did not see anything alarming in Alaska.

Have you compared Alaska with Hawaii? Hawaii has had 7466 cases since June 6th, Alaska only 4638. Hawaii is doing worse even if you adjust for population and at the current rate, Hawaii will be even worse in few weeks.


----------



## Tamaradarann

DannyTS said:


> Do you believe that those with a negative test should still quarantine? Have you looked at Alaska that implemented such a policy a while ago? I did not see anything alarming in their numbers.



No, you took my post out of context and perhaps I wasn't as explicit as I should have been.  It was my response to the previous post where Pedro47 said that the New Government Site wouldn't load.  I was expressing my thought that since the site DOESN'T assist with one getting a Coronavirus Test before flying to avoid the 14 day quarantine that I wasn't disappointed that it didn't load.  I couldn't care less!


----------



## cman

pedro47 said:


> Government site would not load


Try this link, then select item #5;









						Safe Travels Help
					

The Safe Travels Hawaii program is a multilayered process designed to protect the health and safety of our visitors and residents alike from the spread of COVID-19.  A 5-day mandatory quarantine will be required for travelers who do not participate […]




					ets.hawaii.gov


----------



## ljmiii

DannyTS said:


> Have you compared Alaska with Hawaii?...Hawaii has had 7466 cases since June 6th, Alaska only 4638.


Well, yes. Alaska reports 690 cases and 5 deaths per 100K people and Hawaii reports 511 cases and 4 deaths per 100K people. Even if you use the post June 6th numbers you quoted Alaska has 634 cases per 100K and Hawaii has 527.

Though what worries me more about the comparison is that Alaska's testing numbers have fallen off a cliff - they are down to a 7-day average of around 2,500 tests per day from a plateau of around 5,500 in late July through mid August.

Meanwhile Hawaii's testing numbers have remained strong and they are aggressively expanding their COVID testing program conducting 60,000 tests in the upcoming days. Leeward Community College was overwhelmed with the response and Hawaii is closing down H3 Tuesday and Thursday next week to turn it into a COVID test site. Mayor Caldwell said that they will soon use the Aloha Bowl as well.

Hopefully the data from the expanded testing data combined with the 14 day stay-at-home order will flatten the curve in Hawaii. And at least allow for inter-island travel in the near future. And then trans-Pacific travel once those pieces are put in place.


----------



## DannyTS

ljmiii said:


> Well, yes. Alaska reports 690 cases and 5 deaths per 100K people and Hawaii reports 511 cases and 4 deaths per 100K people. Even if you use the post June 6th numbers you quoted Alaska has 634 cases per 100K and Hawaii has 527.
> 
> Though what worries me more about the comparison is that Alaska's testing numbers have fallen off a cliff - they are down to a 7-day average of around 2,500 tests per day from a plateau of around 5,500 in late July through mid August.
> 
> Meanwhile Hawaii's testing numbers have remained strong and they are aggressively expanding their COVID testing program conducting 60,000 tests in the upcoming days. Leeward Community College was overwhelmed with the response and Hawaii is closing down H3 Tuesday and Thursday next week to turn it into a COVID test site. Mayor Caldwell said that they will soon use the Aloha Bowl as well.
> 
> Hopefully the data from the expanded testing data combined with the 14 day stay-at-home order will flatten the curve in Hawaii. And at least allow for inter-island travel in the near future. And then trans-Pacific travel once those pieces are put in place.


Have you factored in that to date Alaska has had 4 times more tests per capita than Hawaii?









						All State Comparison of Testing Efforts - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

Through up-to-date visuals, track how testing volume, positivity, and proportion give a sense of whether the occurrence of new cases is slowing or growing.




					coronavirus.jhu.edu


----------



## ljmiii

DannyTS said:


> Have you factored in that Alaska has had 4 times more tests than Hawaii to date?


Just under twice as many tests - 401,637 vs 233,465 - and a bit over three times as many tests per capita, but yes.

What worries me about Alaska's testing numbers is that the states that are doing 'well' (e.g. NY, NJ, VT) have continued to increase testing or at least maintain their numbers. Other states like FL appear to have given up and are allowing the disease to run rampant and unreported. Having AK fall into the later camp would be unfortunate for those who live there. That said, Alaska's %positive rate still looks good and their tracking system is adequate.

None of which really has anything to do with Hawaii's predicament. They were undeniably caught flatfooted by the dramatic rise of cases that started in late July on O'ahu and spread from there to the other islands. They had nowhere near enough trackers, ICU beds, or testing to deal with the outbreak. And they are belatedly springing into action, reissuing orders for O'ahu and stopping travel from the island, hiring new trackers, adding 24 new negative pressure ICU beds to Queen’s Medical Center, and performing 60,000 tests in the upcoming days.

At this point adding yet more visitors would be adding fuel to the fire (it isn't as if visitors, residents, and 'exempt' arrivals like the military have ever stopped coming). As I said above, flatten the curve, lift the order, resume flights from O'ahu, and eventually allow trans-Pacific visitors to enter without quarantine.


----------



## DannyTS

I still do not see that Alaska has a testing problem. About a month ago they were testing a lot more than NY, now the are testing about 10% less, not that relevant IMO.

New York tests/ 1 million people




Alaska tests / 1 million people


----------



## DannyTS

Inconsistencies like this make people ask what is going on. Temptation island will start production while many businesses are closed. 

"Trade Winds Production’s health security plan includes COVID-19 testing for all cast and crew flying to Maui 72 hours prior to their flight and direct transportation to the Andaz resort, where they will complete a modified seven-day quarantine." Can tourists have the same treatment?









						Reality series ‘Temptation Island’ to begin  filming again on Maui
					

Maui filming of the reality series “Temptation Island” is back on again after obtaining authorization from Mayor Michael Victorino following a review of the production company’s health security plan and testing protocols.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## DeniseM

Great! - This means the state is actively working on their process to safely allow visitors in.  I think this is an important experiment to see what parameters have to be in place to prevent the transmission of C-19, to or from visitors.  If a highly supervised situation like this is successful, it paves the way for larger tourist programs.  If it isn't successful, and they have a C-19 breakout, that is also useful info. It's a step in the right direction!


----------



## DannyTS

DeniseM said:


> Great! - This means the state is actively working on their process to safely allow visitors in.  I think this is an important experiment to see what parameters have to be in place to prevent the transmission of C-19, to or from visitors.  If a highly supervised situation like this is successful, it paves the way for larger tourist programs.  If it isn't successful, and they have a C-19 breakout, that is also useful info. It's a step in the right direction!


Or this is just one of the many exceptions they have made for those with connections. When they have so many problems now, why do they have to divert staff resources for a reality show? The optics are terrible.


----------



## Tamaradarann

DeniseM said:


> Great! - This means the state is actively working on their process to safely allow visitors in.  I think this is an important experiment to see what parameters have to be in place to prevent the transmission of C-19, to or from visitors.  If a highly supervised situation like this is successful, it paves the way for larger tourist programs.  If it isn't successful, and they have a C-19 breakout, that is also useful info. It's a step in the right direction!



I have to agree with you that this is baby steps in the right direction.  Since we have given up plans for a 2020 return to Hawaii it doesn't really matter right now.  Our current plans are for fall of 2021 so they have plenty of time to play around with a plan for tourists to come with a 14 day quarantine.  We are now actually on "Hawaiian time" with our plans for returning to Hawaii.  However, for others that are hoping to come within the next year. and for businesses that are desperate for tourist to come so they can stay in business and be viable again the baby steps are really not enough.


----------



## jabberwocky

DannyTS said:


> Or this is just one of the many exceptions they have made for those with connections. When they have so many problems now, why do they have to divert staff resources for a reality show? The optics are terrible.


The optics might be bad - but if you are going to make an exception - it should be something that has a purpose.

Likely there are few state resources being used - there is probably a provision of the agreement that the show would provide all testing and pay for monitoring of the program (similar to the NHL playoff bubble experiment currently underway.) The 14 days was always pretty arbitrary and based on extreme cases. The vast majority who display symptoms do so in less than half the time. This exception seems to be a recognition of that fact and a good way to test. 

I’m all for the experimentation and trying limited openings if it gets us closer to bring more comfortable with the disease and understanding how to control the spread without overwhelming healthcare systems.


----------



## csodjd

ljmiii said:


> Well, yes. Alaska reports 690 cases and 5 deaths per 100K people and Hawaii reports 511 cases and 4 deaths per 100K people. Even if you use the post June 6th numbers you quoted Alaska has 634 cases per 100K and Hawaii has 527.
> 
> Though what worries me more about the comparison is that Alaska's testing numbers have fallen off a cliff - they are down to a 7-day average of around 2,500 tests per day from a plateau of around 5,500 in late July through mid August.
> 
> Meanwhile Hawaii's testing numbers have remained strong and they are aggressively expanding their COVID testing program conducting 60,000 tests in the upcoming days. Leeward Community College was overwhelmed with the response and Hawaii is closing down H3 Tuesday and Thursday next week to turn it into a COVID test site. Mayor Caldwell said that they will soon use the Aloha Bowl as well.
> 
> Hopefully the data from the expanded testing data combined with the 14 day stay-at-home order will flatten the curve in Hawaii. And at least allow for inter-island travel in the near future. And then trans-Pacific travel once those pieces are put in place.


Raw numbers are interesting, but context is necessary to give them meaning. Context here means capacity/ability to handle severe cases, and sufficient contact tracing capability to find and contain spread. If comparing numbers in Alaska to Hawaii, these tell us whether the numbers point to a problem or not. If Hawaii has "better numbers" but less capacity to handle sick people and less ability to contain breakouts, Hawaii doesn't really have "better numbers." So comparisons like this are more complicated than just how many.


----------



## DannyTS

jabberwocky said:


> The optics might be bad - but if you are going to make an exception - it should be something that has a purpose.
> 
> Likely there are few state resources being used - there is probably a provision of the agreement that the show would provide all testing and pay for monitoring of the program (similar to the NHL playoff bubble experiment currently underway.) The 14 days was always pretty arbitrary and based on extreme cases. The vast majority who display symptoms do so in less than half the time. This exception seems to be a recognition of that fact and a good way to test.
> 
> I’m all for the experimentation and trying limited openings if it gets us closer to bring more comfortable with the disease and understanding how to control the spread without overwhelming healthcare systems.


I do not see the scientific basis to use this to bring back tens of thousands of visitors. 
For the shooting I think they will fly around 100 people to Hawaii. The odds that a mainland member of the crew is actually infected are extremely small, less than 1 per 1000 (they are tested before arrival).

I did not mean that this is using financial resources but rather human resources. One can bet that multiple departments and very important officials had to plan and approve this plan. I just do not see how it is worth it for 7 million dollars when they are bleeding billions.


----------



## DeniseM

My cup is half full - your cup is half empty.  It's a choice.


----------



## JIMinNC

ljmiii said:


> Other states like FL appear to have given up and are allowing the disease to run rampant and unreported.



I'm not sure that is true for FL and some of the other states (like Arizona) where cases surged in July. In both AZ and FL, while total tests have declined along with cases, I have read several articles that say this is due to reduced demand for tests due to fewer people with symptoms and fewer contacts. The validation of this is hospitalizations, which have dropped by about half since July/early August in both AZ and FL. That would seems to imply that the case declines there are a reflection of less virus in the population, not just less testing.

Since this whole thing started there has been a narrative that FL, GA, SC, AL, and other southern states have mismanaged this thing badly, but the fact remains that total cases and deaths per capita in these "mismanaged" states are a fraction of the per capital rates in the "well managed" states of NY/NJ/CT. And Hawaii was praised early on for their "great" response, now look at them - the highest rate of growth in cases in the US. At the same time, the unemployment rates in these "well managed" states in July were:

NY 15.9%
NJ  13.8%
CT  10.2%
HI   13.1%

By contrast, the "mismanaged" states with lower cases and deaths had the following unemployment rates:

AZ  10.6%
GA  7.8%
FL  11.3%
SC   8.6%
AL   7.9%

When I look at the case/death numbers alongside the unemployment rates, it seems the mismanaged states look to be doing a lot better than the general perception.


----------



## Ken555

Paradise lost: How Hawaii went from Covid-19 star to cautionary tale









						Paradise lost: How Hawaii went from COVID-19 star to cautionary tale  — POLITICO
					

The state's infection surge shows the risk of complacency, say local officials who fault the governor for neglecting basic public health measures.




					apple.news
				





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## DannyTS

DeniseM said:


> My cup is half full - your cup is half empty.  It's a choice.


People need to see a coherent strategy. Granting exceptions will only confuse and frustrate the locals and make them act less responsibly. How does the Emergency Order read now? Probably something like this: with the exception  of the Paradise Island reality show crew, every visitor to Hawaii has to quarantine for 14 days.


----------



## DannyTS

"The gist of the WSJ piece, available to subscribers online here, is that there is now five months of global data showing no relationship between the severity of lockdowns and any consistent reduction in coronavirus transmission or Covid-19 deaths. The only certainty is that lockdowns have resulted in the world’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Targeted interventions could save lives at far less cost. But we don’t do targeted interventions here. "

*


			https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/news/2020/08/28/blunt-and-costly-lockdowns.html?fbclid=IwAR2J0jmrHHbZY4oTKX90n2zDJkIDUVqIFH2l1JHrPli4ASUA5Qr7nRWNaQE
		

*


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> I'm not sure that is true for FL and some of the other states (like Arizona) where cases surged in July. In both AZ and FL, while total tests have declined along with cases, I have read several articles that say this is due to reduced demand for tests due to fewer people with symptoms and fewer contacts. The validation of this is hospitalizations, which have dropped by about half since July/early August in both AZ and FL. That would seems to imply that the case declines there are a reflection of less virus in the population, not just less testing.
> 
> Since this whole thing started there has been a narrative that FL, GA, SC, AL, and other southern states have mismanaged this thing badly, but the fact remains that total cases and deaths per capita in these "mismanaged" states are a fraction of the per capital rates in the "well managed" states of NY/NJ/CT. And Hawaii was praised early on for their "great" response, now look at them - the highest rate of growth in cases in the US. At the same time, the unemployment rates in these "well managed" states in July were:
> 
> NY 15.9%
> NJ  13.8%
> CT  10.2%
> HI   13.1%
> 
> By contrast, the "mismanaged" states with lower cases and deaths had the following unemployment rates:
> 
> AZ  10.6%
> GA  7.8%
> FL  11.3%
> SC   8.6%
> AL   7.9%
> 
> When I look at the case/death numbers alongside the unemployment rates, it seems the mismanaged states look to be doing a lot better than the general perception.


How does that reconcile with this data from the Univ. of Washington? This is sorted by total cases per capita. I don't have the data, but if you were to remove from this cases occurring in March/April so this reflected only May 1 to now, I believe NY would drop a bunch and the 8 states with the HIGHEST case count per capita would be Arizona + the Southeast. Granted, cases is not the same as hospitalizations, so the data on the latter might be different.

Notable, if you've been following this data, is that NY, NJ and Mass dominated the cases/1M population for a long time. And over the past two months the Southern states and Arizona have just climbed and climbed as the Northeast got spread under control, but the Southeast/Arizona case counts grew and grew. I've watched NY drop from #1 to #7 over the past 4-5 weeks.

In my view this cannot reflect any randomness. There is a systemic difference between the 8 states in this top 9 (excluding NY) and others.













						United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> "The gist of the WSJ piece, available to subscribers online here, is that there is now five months of global data showing no relationship between the severity of lockdowns and any consistent reduction in coronavirus transmission or Covid-19 deaths. The only certainty is that lockdowns have resulted in the world’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Targeted interventions could save lives at far less cost. But we don’t do targeted interventions here. "
> 
> *
> 
> 
> https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/news/2020/08/28/blunt-and-costly-lockdowns.html?fbclid=IwAR2J0jmrHHbZY4oTKX90n2zDJkIDUVqIFH2l1JHrPli4ASUA5Qr7nRWNaQE
> 
> 
> *


Seems like hindsight analysis to me. If we knew then what we know now, maybe. But we didn't, and could not have, know then what we know now. In March what we knew was that a lot of people were dying from a highly contagious new virus that had no treatment and no immunity. Not much more than that. 

No doubt IF we knew in March that bars, indoor places with poor air circulation, large gatherings, etc., were the source of much spread, and that there were a LOT of asymptomatic spreaders, yes, things could have been done differently. So what? Nobody knew. The severe lockdown was because we didn't know and thought maybe it would be best to avoid millions of people dying.


----------



## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> How does that reconcile with this data from the Univ. of Washington? This is sorted by total cases per capita. I don't have the data, but if you were to remove from this cases occurring in March/April so this reflected only May 1 to now, I believe NY would drop a bunch and the 8 states with the HIGHEST case count per capita would be Arizona + the Southeast. Granted, cases is not the same as hospitalizations, so the data on the latter might be different.
> 
> Notable, if you've been following this data, is that NY, NJ and Mass dominated the cases/1M population for a long time. And over the past two months the Southern states and Arizona have just climbed and climbed as the Northeast got spread under control, but the Southeast/Arizona case counts grew and grew. I've watched NY drop from #1 to #7 over the past 4-5 weeks.
> 
> In my view this cannot reflect any randomness. There is a systemic difference between the 8 states in this top 9 (excluding NY) and others.
> 
> View attachment 25685
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info


Funny, I have been making the same argument about Sweden: look at the number of deaths after May, they kept on going down even if they did not lock down in mid March. The peak of deaths was April 9th


----------



## rickandcindy23

Deaths in Hawaii, 62 from Covid, either directly or indirectly, meaning most of the deaths likely had underlying health problems or were elderly.  Remember that comorbidity is a huge factor in deaths.  Do not discount that is as the underlying cause of deaths we have seen in this country.  When you get the flu or pneumonia, age and health have everything to do with how your body handles the illness.


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> Funny, I have been making the same argument about Sweden: look at the number of deaths after May, they kept on going down even if they did not lock down in mid March. The peak of deaths was April 9th


The problem with deaths as a measure is that we started with no knowledge whatsoever of HOW to treat the condition or WHO was most at risk and needed to be aggressively treated. We didn't even know WHAT the cause or mechanism of death was so as to intervene. 

Today we have some knowledge and tools available that allow people that would have died in March to never even reach the stage of needing a ventilator. Doctors know much about the disease process and have a lot of experience to draw from. They have clinical data to help identify the "at risk" admissions. Heck, they even know people do better lying face down!


----------



## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> The problem with deaths as a measure is that we started with no knowledge whatsoever of HOW to treat the condition or WHO was most at risk and needed to be aggressively treated. We didn't even know WHAT the cause or mechanism of death was so as to intervene.
> 
> Today we have some knowledge and tools available that allow people that would have died in March to never even reach the stage of needing a ventilator. Doctors know much about the disease process and have a lot of experience to draw from. They have clinical data to help identify the "at risk" admissions. Heck, they even know people do better lying face down!


If that is the case, why is the number of deaths/ 1 million people in the US approaching Sweden? The projections are the US will pass Sweden in the next few days.


----------



## PigsDad

csodjd said:


> How does that reconcile with this data from the Univ. of Washington? This is sorted by total cases per capita. I don't have the data, but if you were to remove from this cases occurring in March/April so this reflected only May 1 to now, I believe NY would drop a bunch and the 8 states with the HIGHEST case count per capita would be Arizona + the Southeast. Granted, cases is not the same as hospitalizations, so the data on the latter might be different.
> 
> Notable, if you've been following this data, is that NY, NJ and Mass dominated the cases/1M population for a long time. And over the past two months the Southern states and Arizona have just climbed and climbed as the Northeast got spread under control, but the Southeast/Arizona case counts grew and grew. I've watched NY drop from #1 to #7 over the past 4-5 weeks.
> 
> In my view this cannot reflect any randomness. There is a systemic difference between the 8 states in this top 9 (excluding NY) and others.
> 
> View attachment 25685
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info


I noticed that you cut off the chart just before the deaths/million column.  Right now, NY has 3X more deaths per million than FL (to take one example) -- 1697 vs. 521.  While FL my have more confirmed cases per million right now, I think that has more to do with when the peaks hit each state and what testing they were doing during those peaks.

With 3X more deaths/million in NY but less _confirmed _cases/million, do you really think NY had less _actual _cases/million?  Was the virus really more than 3X more deadly in NY than FL?  Or maybe it is because early in the pandemic (when NY was getting hit hard), testing was focused on those who were quite ill -- early on, even if you had symptoms, many times people were told not to even get tested unless the symptoms became life threatening.  Given this, it would only make sense that the _actual _total cumulative cases in NY are way more than were confirmed.

While the data that is presented on this site is informational, given how testing was done early vs. now and taking into account when each state was going through its peak, using the data in this table is not very useful for making state-to-state comparisons.

Kurt


----------



## csodjd

PigsDad said:


> I noticed that you cut off the chart just before the deaths/million column.  Right now, NY has 3X more deaths per million than FL (to take one example) -- 1697 vs. 521.  While FL my have more confirmed cases per million right now, I think that has more to do with when the peaks hit each state and what testing they were doing during those peaks.
> 
> With 3X more deaths/million in NY but less _confirmed _cases/million, do you really think NY had less _actual _cases/million?  Was the virus really more than 3X more deadly in NY than FL?  Or maybe it is because early in the pandemic (when NY was getting hit hard), testing was focused on those who were quite ill -- early on, even if you had symptoms, many times people were told not to even get tested unless the symptoms became life threatening.  Given this, it would only make sense that the _actual _total cumulative cases in NY are way more than were confirmed.
> 
> While the data that is presented on this site is informational, given how testing was done early vs. now and taking into account when each state was going through its peak, using the data in this table is not very useful for making state-to-state comparisons.
> 
> Kurt


I cut off the deaths per capita because it's not particularly helpful. The vast majority of deaths in NY and NJ were early in the disease when almost nothing was known, not even how COVID was killing people. Since we can't sort out monthly, or start it as of, say, June 1, we can't draw helpful conclusions. 

It is not that the virus was 3x more deadly in NY than in FL. It is that the virus was 3x more deadly early in the pandemic than later. Later doctors had numerous tools, knowledge, and experience to prevent death that would have otherwise occurred early in the pandemic. All other things being equal, would you rather have become infected in March or in August? Would you rather be the 3rd patient a doctor had ever treated, or the 300th? 

I don't care where you live... you're less likely to die from COVID today than you were in March/April. Since the data and charts we have don't allow that to be taken into consideration, the data is rendered unhelpful if trying to draw conclusions about how CONDUCT in various states is working or not working TODAY.


----------



## DeniseM

Hawaii’s hospitals are in urgent need of nurses to tackle a surge in COVID-19 cases
					

With an influx in hospitalizations in Hawaii due to the surge in COVID-19 cases, health care officials have put out an urgent call for more nurses to assist.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## PigsDad

csodjd said:


> I cut off the deaths per capita because it's not particularly helpful. The vast majority of deaths in NY and NJ were early in the disease when almost nothing was known, not even how COVID was killing people. Since we can't sort out monthly, or start it as of, say, June 1, we can't draw helpful conclusions.
> 
> It is not that the virus was 3x more deadly in NY than in FL. It is that the virus was 3x more deadly early in the pandemic than later. Later doctors had numerous tools, knowledge, and experience to prevent death that would have otherwise occurred early in the pandemic. All other things being equal, would you rather have become infected in March or in August? Would you rather be the 3rd patient a doctor had ever treated, or the 300th?
> 
> I don't care where you live... you're less likely to die from COVID today than you were in March/April. Since the data and charts we have don't allow that to be taken into consideration, the data is rendered unhelpful if trying to draw conclusions about how CONDUCT in various states is working or not working TODAY.


All of this is assuming _confirmed _Covid cases is the same as _actual _Covid cases, which is completely false.  How the testing was done is a huge factor, which you seem to be completely ignoring.  Whatever -- you can believe what you want, even it it has very little to do with reality.

Kurt


----------



## rickandcindy23

With Hawaii shut down so long, where are these new cases coming from?


----------



## csodjd

PigsDad said:


> All of this is assuming _confirmed _Covid cases is the same as _actual _Covid cases, which is completely false.  How the testing was done is a huge factor, which you seem to be completely ignoring.  Whatever -- you can believe what you want, even it it has very little to do with reality.
> 
> Kurt


Well, every state in the Country is reporting daily cases. I suppose if it suits your needs you can claim that data "has very little to do with reality." Nonetheless, that data is driving policy and decisions, and school openings, and business closure decisions. Both political and medical authorities and leaders are relying on this data. Perhaps you've got sufficient expertise to have greater insight than they do, I don't know. But this data is the "reality" that is informing most decision making, all the way down to the decision to close down Oahu for two weeks and to delay opening up to trans-Pacific tourists. That IS reality.


----------



## csodjd

rickandcindy23 said:


> With Hawaii shut down so long, where are these new cases coming from?


Probably a mix of some coming in, and plenty of asymptomatic spread "under the radar" after the shut down was relaxed.


----------



## DeniseM

> With Hawaii shut down so long, where are these new cases coming from?


I read the Honolulu Star Advertiser daily, and most of the new cases are coming from social gatherings:  bars, big (illegal) for-pay parties on the beach, in a flotilla, or in the jungle, and large family gatherings, such as birthdays, wedding, funerals, the 4th of July, etc. Some of these for-pay parties have had hundreds of participants.  Several of them were hosted by military personnel.  It's just like every other state - people have let down their guard and are no longer taking precautions.


----------



## PigsDad

csodjd said:


> Well, every state in the Country is reporting daily cases. I suppose if it suits your needs you can claim that data "has very little to do with reality." Nonetheless, that data is driving policy and decisions, and school openings, and business closure decisions. Both political and medical authorities and leaders are relying on this data. Perhaps you've got sufficient expertise to have greater insight than they do, I don't know. But this data is the "reality" that is informing most decision making, all the way down to the decision to close down Oahu for two weeks and to delay opening up to trans-Pacific tourists. That IS reality.


Nice attempt in shifting the conversation to how current data is being used to make current decisions (which I have no issues with).  However, my posts were pertaining to how data from NY in March/April cannot be used to compare current data from the more recent hot spots (like FL) due to how testing has changed in that time frame.  Since you cannot seem to understand that, it's not worth my time to continue this discussion with you so I'll move on.  Have a pleasant day.

Kurt


----------



## PigsDad

DeniseM said:


> I read the Honolulu Star Advertiser daily, and most of the new cases are coming from social gatherings:  bars, big (illegal) for-pay parties on the beach, in a flotilla, or in the jungle, and large family gatherings, such as birthdays, wedding, funerals, the 4th of July, etc. Some of these for-pay parties have had hundreds of participants.  Several of them were hosted by military personnel.  It's just like every other state - people have let down their guard and are no longer taking precautions.


So are they concluding that the new cases are coming mostly from locals and military personnel?  I assume there are very few tourists / people from out of state attending these large social gatherings due to the quarantines, correct?

Kurt


----------



## csodjd

PigsDad said:


> Nice attempt in shifting the conversation to how current data is being used to make current decisions (which I have no issues with).  However, my posts were pertaining to how data from NY in March/April cannot be used to compare current data from the more recent hot spots (like FL) due to how testing has changed in that time frame.  Since you cannot seem to understand that, it's not worth my time to continue this discussion with you so I'll move on.  Have a pleasant day.
> 
> Kurt


You appear to have a difficult time having an intellectual discussion without personal attacks. Why is that? 

You make the statement, "How the testing was done is a huge factor, which you seem to be completely ignoring." I have no idea what that means, or how you know this. What do you mean by "how the testing was done?" And it was/is a "huge factor" in what? I'm merely taking "testing" at face value, positive is positive and negative is negative, and looking at the data that's published. Are you talking about the accuracy of test results? The type of test? Specificity? Sensitivity? What EXACTLY is different about HOW the testing has changed?


----------



## DeniseM

PigsDad said:


> So are they concluding that the new cases are coming mostly from locals and military personnel?  I assume there are very few tourists / people from out of state attending these large social gatherings due to the quarantines, correct?
> Kurt



Yes - After every holiday when people might get together, they've had a surge of cases. They aren't coming from outside the state.


----------



## PigsDad

csodjd said:


> You appear to have a difficult time having an intellectual discussion without personal attacks. Why is that?


Wow, if you don't think your posts were personal attacks, well, I'm shocked.  Whatever -- I'm not going to lower myself to your level.  Welcome to my ignore list.

Kurt


----------



## DeniseM

This thread is taking a time-out.


----------



## csodjd

It's being reported new cases are down to 133. That's down from I believe it was 200, and 309 before that. The cases occurring now should be mostly the more slowly developing cases from infection/exposure before the new rules took affect last week and less and less from "new" exposures. 

If it goes well one would expect new cases to drop below 100 in the next couple of days and continue down steadily from there, bottoming out at some point. Deaths will probably continue to rise for a bit due to all the cases the past month. But dropping from 300 to < 150 in a few days is a good sign. Hope it holds!









						State announces 7 new COVID-19 fatalities, in Hawaii’s deadliest day since pandemic began
					

The new fatalities bring the death toll from the virus in the islands to 70.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## DannyTS

When the number of cases goes down, they will lift the restrictions and the spread will reignite. Hawaii's directors of Health and Public Safety have stepped down by the way









						Directors of Health, Public Safety to step down amid criticism of state’s COVID-19 response
					

State Health Director Bruce Anderson and Public Safety Director Nolan Espinda will both be leaving their posts in September.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> When the number of cases goes down, they will lift the restrictions and the spread will reignite. Hawaii's directors of Health and Public Safety have stepped down by the way
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Directors of Health, Public Safety to step down amid criticism of state’s COVID-19 response
> 
> 
> State Health Director Bruce Anderson and Public Safety Director Nolan Espinda will both be leaving their posts in September.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com


Well, they will if they do the same thing (or lack of "do") that they did last pass. Hopefully this time around they'll test and contact trace vigorously, and they'll be more surgical in their restriction easing. 

Until there is immunity or vaccine there is no way to open up and avoid or limit spread other than testing, tracing, and preventing high risk activities like crowded bars. Perhaps more than anywhere in the US, Hawaii has the ability to be outside and that will go a long way. And, as the article you posted states, "And without adequate contact tracing or widespread testing, experts said, the state and city were ill equipped to slow the spread of the virus." Except I'd say "and," not "or."


----------



## jabberwocky

I’m not sure I would read too much into a raw daily  new case number.  Testing usually goes down over the weekend (not sure if some labs or collection sites close or reduce capacity - but this seems to be occurring across jurisdictions - not just Hawaii).

Based on yesterday’s figures (which correspond to the announcement today) the three day moving average tests per day was 2132 people on August 30. On August 26 the three day moving average number of tests run was 4168. So nearly a 50% drop in the number of tests run per day in only four days. We should expect to see a big drop in cases as a result.

That said, the seven day average positivity rate does seem to be stabilizing or declining, so if that holds then it may be an indication things are getting under control.


----------



## csodjd

jabberwocky said:


> I’m not sure I would read too much into a raw daily  new case number.  Testing usually goes down over the weekend (not sure if some labs or collection sites close or reduce capacity - but this seems to be occurring across jurisdictions - not just Hawaii).
> 
> Based on yesterday’s figures (which correspond to the announcement today) the three day moving average tests per day was 2132 people on August 30. On August 26 the three day moving average number of tests run was 4168. So nearly a 50% drop in the number of tests run per day in only four days. We should expect to see a big drop in cases as a result.
> 
> That said, the seven day average positivity rate does seem to be stabilizing or declining, so if that holds then it may be an indication things are getting under control.


No disagreement, but it's still better than seeing 400 be reported!


----------



## jabberwocky

csodjd said:


> No disagreement, but it's still better than seeing 400 be reported!


Agree that I like seeing fewer cases being reported.  I prefer to be optimistic, so let’s not get too down if we see a spike on Wednesday or Thursday 

On a side note: I’m not in the medical field, but one of my first jobs was in healthcare analytics for our public health system.  I’ve learned that timing and measurement matter, particularly for labs, since the collection and processing leads to “batching”.  You also learn a lot about human behaviour and incentives, things like: if you make it difficult for nurses to book vacation time you will see an abnormal number of sick days for nursing staff occurring on Monday and Friday, relative to other days of the week.


----------



## amycurl

It's really about positivity percentage; to really be able to mitigate and control spread, it needs to be under 5%, so any downward trend in that number is what I'm really looking for (in all communities, not just Hawaii.)


----------



## csodjd

amycurl said:


> It's really about positivity percentage; to really be able to mitigate and control spread, it needs to be under 5%, so any downward trend in that number is what I'm really looking for (in all communities, not just Hawaii.)


That's true, but only if they have a good surveillance testing program. If you only offer testing to symptomatic patients or people with high risk exposures you're not likely to see that 5% number. If you offer it to the community (as I believe Oahu is now doing), then that number has real meaning.


----------



## JIMinNC

We're scheduled to go to Kauai, Maui, Big Island in late Jan/early Feb 2021. At this point, I've pretty much concluded that's not going to happen. If we cancel prior to around Nov 23 (60 days out), we can rebook our weeks, subject to availability, for later in 2021. Since October would be our preferred alternative fall 2021 travel month, I want to have the weeks available at the 12 months window opening, so we'll probably need to make the go/no-go call sometime in early October. I can't imagine things are going to be much different with quarantine/restrictions by then, so I fully expect we won't be going to Hawaii in January . Even if the situation is better in October, I have no confidence that Gov Ige won't reimpose restrictions if cases tick up a bit before January. I don't want our trip hanging on his decisions.

To be honest, even October may be iffy, but rescheduling until then buys us 9 months before we would have to give our weeks to II.


----------



## jabberwocky

csodjd said:


> That's true, but only if they have a good surveillance testing program. If you only offer testing to symptomatic patients or people with high risk exposures you're not likely to see that 5% number. If you offer it to the community (as I believe Oahu is now doing), then that number has real meaning.


+1 for this.  IMO the 5% is fairly arbitrary and only really relevant if you are doing widespread random testing in the community. Even contact tracing can push the positivity rate up if you focus testing mainly on those who have been in contact with a confirmed case.  I am glad to see the Oahu rate coming down and trust that as they ramp the community testing up positivity will fall.


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> We're scheduled to go to Kauai, Maui, Big Island in late Jan/early Feb 2021. At this point, I've pretty much concluded that's not going to happen. If we cancel prior to around Nov 23 (60 days out), we can rebook our weeks, subject to availability, for later in 2021. Since October would be our preferred alternative fall 2021 travel month, I want to have the weeks available at the 12 months window opening, so we'll probably need to make the go/no-go call sometime in early October. I can't imagine things are going to be much different with quarantine/restrictions by then, so I fully expect we won't be going to Hawaii in January . Even if the situation is better in October, I have no confidence that Gov Ige won't reimpose restrictions if cases tick up a bit before January. I don't want our trip hanging on his decisions.
> 
> To be honest, even October may be iffy, but rescheduling until then buys us 9 months before we would have to give our weeks to II.


We're holding on. Still hoping to go this October, maybe November. But I canceled Marriott so at this point it's just Hilton points. Can cancel and move them to 2021 any time.


----------



## Tucsonadventurer

JIMinNC said:


> We're scheduled to go to Kauai, Maui, Big Island in late Jan/early Feb 2021. At this point, I've pretty much concluded that's not going to happen. If we cancel prior to around Nov 23 (60 days out), we can rebook our weeks, subject to availability, for later in 2021. Since October would be our preferred alternative fall 2021 travel month, I want to have the weeks available at the 12 months window opening, so we'll probably need to make the go/no-go call sometime in early October. I can't imagine things are going to be much different with quarantine/restrictions by then, so I fully expect we won't be going to Hawaii in January . Even if the situation is better in October, I have no confidence that Gov Ige won't reimpose restrictions if cases tick up a bit before January. I don't want our trip hanging on his decisions.
> 
> To be honest, even October may be iffy, but rescheduling until then buys us 9 months before we would have to give our weeks to II.


We are in the same boat so would need to cancel by Nov if things aren't better. It is not looking good


----------



## davidvel

One good thing about this pandemic is the education people are getting related to statistics, percentages, and other related issues.  It's  a bit scary how many people blindly read numbers in headlines, with no clue as to what the numbers mean, or their relativity to "normal." Hopefully all the discussion and debate will help people be more critical thinkers. (Despite those that  believe thinking is too much work, and leave it to others.)


----------



## Monykalyn

DannyTS said:


> When the number of cases goes down, they will lift the restrictions and the spread will reignite. Hawaii's directors of Health and Public Safety have stepped down by the way
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Directors of Health, Public Safety to step down amid criticism of state’s COVID-19 response
> 
> 
> State Health Director Bruce Anderson and Public Safety Director Nolan Espinda will both be leaving their posts in September.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com


HOly moly seems a large part of cabinet has "resigned" or "retired".


----------



## csodjd

davidvel said:


> One good thing about this pandemic is the education people are getting related to statistics, percentages, and other related issues.  It's  a bit scary how many people blindly read numbers in headlines, with no clue as to what the numbers mean, or their relativity to "normal." Hopefully all the discussion and debate will help people be more critical thinkers. (Despite those that  believe thinking is too much work, and leave it to others.)


I wish people would be "critical thinkers" instead of "political thinkers." I don't care if the message is coming from the right or the left, one has to have the ability (and willingness) to see if it makes sense. I'm not seeing much of that anymore, even when it comes to things that need to be entirely apolitical, such as approval of a drug or protocols for testing.


----------



## DeniseM

This thread is reopened for civil discourse - thank you!


----------



## DeniseM

Officials say Hawaii’s health care system is under great stress
					

Hawaii hospital officials said Monday that the state’s health care system has been able to handle the state’s COVID-19 surge so far by shifting personnel, recruiting new workers, modifying hospital spaces and working long hours.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## Theiggy

My February trip to Ko Olina is hanging on by a thread -like a loose tooth in a kid’s mouth. One twist, and it’s out. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## csodjd

Just read that the Four Seasons Resorts on Lanai is furloughing 750. A large portion of the island's employed workers (2/3 according to the article).


----------



## controller1

csodjd said:


> Just read that the Four Seasons Resorts on Lanai is furloughing 750. A large portion of the island's employed workers (2/3 according to the article).



Here is a link to an article discussing it: https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/lanai-dealt-huge-economic-blow-with-four-seasons-furloughs/


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## csodjd

181 New cases reported today. While that's up from yesterday, yesterday likely reflected lower reporting from Sunday. Both are down considerably from the recent numbers. If the Oahu orders are effective, that 181 should steadily or even rapidly drop, especially as we pass the one-week mark from the orders taking effect (2-3 more days). Though the incubation is reported up to 14 days, most cases occur within about 7.

It is, however, complicated by the huge increase in testing. Nonetheless, if, the testing notwithstanding, the new case numbers drop below 100 by the weekend it will show that the orders worked, and one more week ought to bring the numbers into the controllable range.

Hoping.









						4 additional COVID-19 fatalities push death toll from virus in Hawaii to 74
					

Since Aug. 1, amid a surge in COVID-19 infections on Oahu, Hawaii has seen 48 coronavirus deaths.




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## DannyTS

So we will have to wait a couple more weeks to see if the numbers go to the same level they were 4 weeks ago, before the surge. What will happen after that? I do not see how this perpetual cycle is sustainable.


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> So we will have to wait a couple more weeks to see if the numbers go to the same level they were 4 weeks ago, before the surge. What will happen after that? I do not see how this perpetual cycle is sustainable.


Well, there are two steps, and both have to happen. The first is getting the numbers down. But that's the easy part. Step two is having a robust testing and tracing program so that the numbers stay down, even as businesses open up. They CAN do that. It just takes the government committing and being competent.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> It just takes the government committing and being competent.



Hey, you’re a comedian!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## jacknsara

Aloha,

Most of the following is probably irrelevant / TMI other than to support the point of view that the near term is risky.  Unless there is a pressing reason to visit Hawaii soon, a prudent approach is to delay trip plans significantly.

I’ve been following this thread all along but have had little technical insight add ( https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/t...i-coronavirus-discussions.304580/post-2456182 ); it has helped me think through our options.  We had reservations at KBV and Shearwater for October 2020 (previously rescheduled from earlier in the year) and Feb/March 2021.  We love going to Kauai every year; we eat out almost every evening and many lunches. We love being healthy and alive even more.  Even if Hawaii opens up for mainlanders without quarantine with clear test results and restaurants are open, we concluded we wouldn’t be comfortable with the risk.

RCI was allowing deposits of the October 2020 weeks.  Our RCI membership was due to expire November 2020.  Oh well. We renewed RCI and deposited the 2020 weeks.  We changed our spring 2021 reservations to October 2021.  We also had a HTSE exchange into Kona Coast Resort for December 2020.  We cancelled that, lost the exchange fee and paid to extend the deposits eligibility to December 2021. In another month, we will submit our reservation request for Feb/March 2022.  

A lot can change between now and late 2021. 

Jack


----------



## dsmrp

We just rented a car at HNL airport for 3 days. Amongst the whole bank of rental counters there were only 2 people working. Our agent at Budget only had 1 model of car available in the compact size range.

We got an upgrade to a mid-size, which wasn't too much larger. Even tho' many cars are sidelined at Aloha stadium, the agent said they have few cleaned cars. The  rental cars are leased and being shipped back to the leasor on the mainland.


----------



## csodjd

dsmrp said:


> We just rented a car at HNL airport for 3 days. Amongst the whole bank of rental counters there were only 2 people working. Our agent at Budget only had 1 model of car available in the compact size range.
> 
> We got an upgrade to a mid-size, which wasn't too much larger. Even tho' many cars are sidelined at Aloha stadium, the agent said they have few cleaned cars. The  rental cars are leased and being shipped back to the leasor on the mainland.


At the same time I read an article this morning about the planned reopening of the now Hyatt in Hana, Maui, planned for Oct. 1. So it appears they are at least still planning/hoping for an Oct. 1 reintroduction of trans-Pacific travelers. No doubt that’s a “flexible” plan, and a lot (everything?) will depend on the success or failure of the current shut down and testing over the next 10 days.


----------



## csodjd

jacknsara said:


> Aloha,
> 
> Most of the following is probably irrelevant / TMI other than to support the point of view that the near term is risky.  Unless there is a pressing reason to visit Hawaii soon, a prudent approach is to delay trip plans significantly.
> 
> I’ve been following this thread all along but have had little technical insight add ( https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/t...i-coronavirus-discussions.304580/post-2456182 ); it has helped me think through our options.  We had reservations at KBV and Shearwater for October 2020 (previously rescheduled from earlier in the year) and Feb/March 2021.  We love going to Kauai every year; we eat out almost every evening and many lunches. We love being healthy and alive even more.  Even if Hawaii opens up for mainlanders without quarantine with clear test results and restaurants are open, we concluded we wouldn’t be comfortable with the risk.
> 
> RCI was allowing deposits of the October 2020 weeks.  Our RCI membership was due to expire November 2020.  Oh well. We renewed RCI and deposited the 2020 weeks.  We changed our spring 2021 reservations to October 2021.  We also had a HTSE exchange into Kona Coast Resort for December 2020.  We cancelled that, lost the exchange fee and paid to extend the deposits eligibility to December 2021. In another month, we will submit our reservation request for Feb/March 2022.
> 
> A lot can change between now and late 2021.
> 
> Jack


I’d say that there’s plenty of room for reasonable people to not “be comfortable with the risk.” That’s certainly not crazy. I’m sort of a numbers-data-driven guy. I recognize there is always risk. What’s the risk/chance of my plane going down? Eh, pretty small. I’ll take that risk. In the COVID-Hawaii context, and COVID generally, I approach it the same way. I would not attend a rally full of unmasked yelling people. I would not eat inside a restaurant. Those are to me not acceptable risks. But I don’t interact with that many people when in Hawaii. We eat almost entirely outdoors (who goes to Hawaii to be indoors?). Sit on the beach. Sit on the lanai. Play some golf. Etc. When I mix that “do list” with infection rates, everyone on the plane having tested negative, even if infected, about 80-90% chance of minor or no symptoms, I come to a risk I’m willing to take. Other reasonable people may not. That’s okay... just reduces my risk even more.


----------



## rickandcindy23

csodjd said:


> I’d say that there’s plenty of room for reasonable people to not “be comfortable with the risk.” That’s certainly not crazy. I’m sort of a numbers-data-driven guy. I recognize there is always risk. What’s the risk/chance of my plane going down? Eh, pretty small. I’ll take that risk. In the COVID-Hawaii context, and COVID generally, I approach it the same way. I would not attend a rally full of unmasked yelling people. I would not eat inside a restaurant. Those are to me not acceptable risks. But I don’t interact with that many people when in Hawaii. We eat almost entirely outdoors (who goes to Hawaii to be indoors?). Sit on the beach. Sit on the lanai. Play some golf. Etc. When I mix that “do list” with infection rates, everyone on the plane having tested negative, even if infected, about 80-90% chance of minor or no symptoms, I come to a risk I’m willing to take. Other reasonable people may not. That’s okay... just reduces my risk even more.


I agree completely.  If Maui has a quarantine in February, when we go, we will stay in our unit the entire 14 days and will get the negative test befroe leaving, too.  I am not changing our trip for a virus that is running a full year by then.   We will be there for 5 weeks and 5 days, so 14 days on our lanai is just fine by me.  We have friends who will get groceries for us those first two weeks.  Then we will be free to go to the store after that.  That trip is on!


----------



## dsmrp

I've no doubt that many tourism dependent and non tourism businesses here are anxious and tired of the multiple restriction releases over the last few months. And would like the tourists to return and to get back to business.

Re car rental, get your reservations now when rates are semi-reasonable. Car availability should go down with them being shipped back to mainland. Rental agencies will wait to get next year's new model replacements. I'm speculating the quantities will likely be much lower than they previously had.


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## controller1

dsmrp said:


> Car availability should go down with them being shipped back to mainland. Rental agencies will wait to get next year's new model replacements. I'm speculating the quantities will likely be much lower than they previously had.



My concern is arriving at the rental counter and having a replay of the Seinfeld episode!


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## jabberwocky

dsmrp said:


> I've no doubt that many tourism dependent and non tourism businesses here are anxious and tired of the multiple restriction releases over the last few months. And would like the tourists to return and to get back to business.
> 
> Re car rental, get your reservations now when rates are semi-reasonable. Car availability should go down with them being shipped back to mainland. Rental agencies will wait to get next year's new model replacements. I'm speculating the quantities will likely be much lower than they previously had.


I think with the Hertz bankruptcy there is also a large liquidation of their fleet going on.  Those cars are probably being shipped out as well.


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## rickandcindy23

Thank you for the reminder.  I need to reserve a different car.

I reserved our full-size car through Costco for all five weeks, 5 days, and it was only $1,680 with fees included.  That is a bargain for Maui.  The Chase UR portal wouldn't allow a car rental for that many weeks. 

Now our kids are joining us, so I need to switch it to a car that seats six.  I guess a minivan is our next best option.

Funny thing:  I reserved a car for the entire time, but in case they don't let us rent a car upon arrival, I also need to reserve a car for 14 days into our trip, in case we have to quarantine in February.  If we do have to quarantine, our kids won't come because they won't want to quarantine that week they are with us, so we won't need the minivan at all.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I’d say that there’s plenty of room for reasonable people to not “be comfortable with the risk.” That’s certainly not crazy. I’m sort of a numbers-data-driven guy. I recognize there is always risk. What’s the risk/chance of my plane going down? Eh, pretty small. I’ll take that risk. In the COVID-Hawaii context, and COVID generally, I approach it the same way. I would not attend a rally full of unmasked yelling people. I would not eat inside a restaurant. Those are to me not acceptable risks. But I don’t interact with that many people when in Hawaii. We eat almost entirely outdoors (who goes to Hawaii to be indoors?). Sit on the beach. Sit on the lanai. Play some golf. Etc. When I mix that “do list” with infection rates, everyone on the plane having tested negative, even if infected, about 80-90% chance of minor or no symptoms, I come to a risk I’m willing to take. Other reasonable people may not. That’s okay... just reduces my risk even more.



I understand that you do low risk activiites when in Hawaii so the rise is low.  However, I question some of what you said about the plane ride:

-  The infection rates are a moving target.  They were horrible in NY in March thru May.  They are bad in Hawaii right now.
-  You said everyone on the plane tested negative.  When has that become a criteria?
-  I don't understand the statement 89-80% chance of minor or no symptoms?
- The reasonable people that don't go are most probably NOT infected since they are very cautious.  The ones that due do are less cautious so that raises your risk not lowers it


----------



## Fredflintstone

Tamaradarann said:


> I understand that you do low risk activiites when in Hawaii so the rise is low. However, I question some of what you said about the plane ride:
> 
> - The infection rates are a moving target. They were horrible in NY in March thru May. They are bad in Hawaii right now.
> - You said everyone on the plane tested negative. When has that become a criteria?
> - I don't understand the statement 89-80% chance of minor or no symptoms?
> - The reasonable people that don't go are most probably NOT infected since they are very cautious. The ones that due do are less cautious so that raises your risk not lowers it



The sad reality is all these precautions are financially killing those who live in Hawaii. I do understand the Covid risks, but the future quarantine rules may have more impact than the disease itself.

Just to illustrate, here’s just one (of many) lineups at Hawaii Food banks...






This one helps illustrate the degree of the problem.










						'I Have To Accept Reality': First-Timers Line Up For Foodbank Help
					

About 4,000 people waited in line more than four hours for desperately needed food. People lined up early because they feared the Hawaii Foodbank would run out and have to turn people away.




					www.civilbeat.org
				




I shutter to think what will happen when the rules remain but the eviction bans ends 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Tamaradarann

Fredflintstone said:


> The sad reality is all these precautions are financially killing those who live in Hawaii. I do understand the Covid risks, but the future quarantine rules may have more impact than the disease itself.
> 
> Just to illustrate, here’s just one (of many) lineups at Hawaii Food banks...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I shutter to think what will happen when the rules remain but the eviction bans ends
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## chellej

JIMinNC said:


> We're scheduled to go to Kauai, Maui, Big Island in late Jan/early Feb 2021. At this point, I've pretty much concluded that's not going to happen. If we cancel prior to around Nov 23 (60 days out), we can rebook our weeks, subject to availability, for later in 2021. Since October would be our preferred alternative fall 2021 travel month, I want to have the weeks available at the 12 months window opening, so we'll probably need to make the go/no-go call sometime in early October. I can't imagine things are going to be much different with quarantine/restrictions by then, so I fully expect we won't be going to Hawaii in January . Even if the situation is better in October, I have no confidence that Gov Ige won't reimpose restrictions if cases tick up a bit before January. I don't want our trip hanging on his decisions.
> 
> To be honest, even October may be iffy, but rescheduling until then buys us 9 months before we would have to give our weeks to II.




We were scheduled to be on Kauai for the first 2 weeks in January.  I could have waited until mid November to cancel but just don't feel things are getting better anytime soon so I bit the bullet and canceled.  The weeks didn't last long..they were snapped up the next day.  Rescheduled for May... one week on Maui and One on the Big Island....We'll see what happens


----------



## DeniseM

We are starting to see the results of the testing push:








						Hawaii reports 1 coronavirus-related death on Oahu and 339 new cases
					

Hawaii Department of Health officials today recorded one new coronavirus-related death and 339 new cases, bringing the statewide totals since the beginning of the pandemic to 75 fatalities and 8,991 cases.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## slip

339 cases today. I think it will be a while before it levels out.


----------



## jabberwocky

I find this the interesting part:

“Health officials said 90 of today’s new cases are previously diagnosed cases from between Aug. 20 and Monday “whose reporting was delayed as the result of an error … that has subsequently been corrected.”

So today’s total includes cases that should have been reported over the past two weeks. This is an example of why moving averages are more important than single day blips.


----------



## PearlCity

jabberwocky said:


> I find this the interesting part:
> 
> “Health officials said 90 of today’s new cases are previously diagnosed cases from between Aug. 20 and Monday “whose reporting was delayed as the result of an error … that has subsequently been corrected.”
> 
> So today’s total includes cases that should have been reported over the past two weeks. This is an example of why moving averages are more important than single day blips.


For thr group this website has grear data including 7 day moving averages for Hawaii https://www.hawaiidata.org/covid19

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


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## DeniseM

jabberwocky said:


> “Health officials said 90 of today’s new cases are previously diagnosed cases from between Aug. 20 and Monday “whose reporting was delayed as the result of an error … that has subsequently been corrected.”



They recently had 1,700 tests that were mislabeled and had to be repeated - not sure if this is the same incident or not.  Reportedly, the fire dept. giving the tests were not given correct instructions by the testing lab.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I understand that you do low risk activiites when in Hawaii so the rise is low.  However, I question some of what you said about the plane ride:
> 
> -  The infection rates are a moving target.  They were horrible in NY in March thru May.  They are bad in Hawaii right now.
> -  You said everyone on the plane tested negative.  When has that become a criteria?
> -  I don't understand the statement 89-80% chance of minor or no symptoms?
> - The reasonable people that don't go are most probably NOT infected since they are very cautious.  The ones that due do are less cautious so that raises your risk not lowers it


Let me address those bullet points. 

As to the first, true and correct, but that's got nothing to with the plane ride. And, while "bad" right now, the assumption underlying even being ABLE to go (without quarantine) is that they are much improved. I'm evaluating risk with the assumption Hawaii is (a) allowing visitors again, and (b) they are allowing them because the infection rate has returned to very low numbers.

As to the second, that's the assumption, that as a condition of going without quarantine one has to have been tested negative within 72 hours. So I'm assuming that's the criteria, not that it is now, but will be.

As to the third, assuming your comment is a typo (I said 80-90%), that's simply based on data showing about 40% have no symptoms at all, and the rate of serious illness (requiring ER or hospitalization), though very age-dependent, is about 15%. That must be viewed with a grain of salt because of individual variation. If you are 78 and have several relevant co-morbidities that's very different than 51 and healthy in terms of risk of serious illness from COVID. The former would probably be ill-advised to travel, well, anywhere right now. The latter, not as much an issue. (One source reports this, as of March 30: "a 20-something has about a 1% chance of illness so severe it requires hospitalization, and that risk rises to more than 8% for people in their 50s and to nearly 19% for people over 80." https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-odds-hospitalization-death-covid-steadily.html).

As to the fourth, I appreciate the point and there's some inherent truth to it. But, again, it is quite mitigated by at least two important factors. The first is, to go to Hawaii (without quarantine) you'd have to have been tested negative. So whatever lack of caution you have displayed, you've tested negative. Second, going to Hawaii isn't as likely in the demographics most affected by COVID. Factory workers, inner-city hourly workers, elder-care residents, prisons/jails, etc., those people aren't going to Hawaii. Hawaii -generally- (broad brush stroke here) is visited by younger people (low risk for serious illness) or people from a higher socio-economic status (e.g., have more money) which is also a statistically relatively low risk group for COVID infection.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> We are starting to see the results of the testing push:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii reports 1 coronavirus-related death on Oahu and 339 new cases
> 
> 
> Hawaii Department of Health officials today recorded one new coronavirus-related death and 339 new cases, bringing the statewide totals since the beginning of the pandemic to 75 fatalities and 8,991 cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com


I -think- that's a good thing. Finding cases, or people finding that they ARE a case, is the key to stoping spread. It is THE REASON for testing. So, yes, it will increase the number of cases, but that's a necessary step to reducing the number of cases. Assuming CDC guidelines are science and not politics, they say that within 10 days after infection and no fever you're no longer infectious. If these people that test positive now stay put and don't infect someone else, the case count will drop.


----------



## csodjd

This may not be as bad as it gets... but it's moving that direction. This is reported today by Hawaii News Now:

_The expert hand-picked to fix the state’s contact tracing program has asked to go on leave, citing “significant confusion” about who is leading the effort — a conflict she says is preventing her from doing her job, Civil Beat reports.

The state announced Emily Roberson would take over the state’s overwhelmed COVID-19 contact tracing program from state Epidemiologist Sarah Park just two weeks ago.

But in an email Wednesday to deputy Health Director Danette Tomiyasu, Roberson said she hasn’t been able to perform her duties because of “significant confusion regarding whose authority and which directives I should be following with regards to COVID-19 contact tracing in Hawaii.”

“In order to avoid making any unintentional missteps that could inadvertently compromise the COVID-19 response, I am requesting leave ... until my specific role, duties, and chain of command with regards to COVID-19 contact tracing efforts in Hawaii can be clarified by leadership.”

Civil Beat says people who work with DOH believe that Park is at the heart of Roberson’s complaints.

Despite being removed from the role, Park continues to oversee the contact tracing effort, those familiar with the program say. That’s despite the governor saying otherwise last month._


----------



## Tamaradarann

Tamaradarann said:


> That scene at the Food Bank was horrible.  Hawaii had such good numbers back in April and May so they wanted to keep out visitors from other areas which was understandable.  I was a big advocate of no quarantine for those testing negative before they got on the plane back in June to get the tourism economy going again.  At that point we had reservations and plans to return in September so we were enthusiastic about the plan.  I understand that Hawaii had a partnership with CVS to do the testing for the program, however, CVS couldn't turn the tests around on a timely basis.   (in my opinion CVS didn't hold up their end of the parnership since the timely testing was what they were bringing to the partnership, Hawaii was bringing the patients!)  We were very disappointed that the plan never came to fruition and changed our reservations which we have since changed twice more to sometime in 2021.
> 
> Hawaii needs tourism to come back in earnest to survive.  We know some Hawaiians who are happy to see few or no tourists coming as well as others that know they need to tourists to survive.  I would think that many of those on the Food Bank line are in the latter group.
> 
> As far as the eviction ban ending, I don't think that the Hawaiian Government would let that happen until Hawaii gets on its feet again economically.  However, I think the real question is how and when will people who have not been paying rent or mortgages be able catch up on what the owe!  Will the Hawaiian Government bail them out or how will they be able to make extra payments out of income that is barerly enough to survive normally?


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Let me address those bullet points.
> 
> As to the first, true and correct, but that's got nothing to with the plane ride. And, while "bad" right now, the assumption underlying even being ABLE to go (without quarantine) is that they are much improved. I'm evaluating risk with the assumption Hawaii is (a) allowing visitors again, and (b) they are allowing them because the infection rate has returned to very low numbers.
> 
> As to the second, that's the assumption, that as a condition of going without quarantine one has to have been tested negative within 72 hours. So I'm assuming that's the criteria, not that it is now, but will be.
> 
> As to the third, assuming your comment is a typo (I said 80-90%), that's simply based on data showing about 40% have no symptoms at all, and the rate of serious illness (requiring ER or hospitalization), though very age-dependent, is about 15%. That must be viewed with a grain of salt because of individual variation. If you are 78 and have several relevant co-morbidities that's very different than 51 and healthy in terms of risk of serious illness from COVID. The former would probably be ill-advised to travel, well, anywhere right now. The latter, not as much an issue. (One source reports this, as of March 30: "a 20-something has about a 1% chance of illness so severe it requires hospitalization, and that risk rises to more than 8% for people in their 50s and to nearly 19% for people over 80." https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-odds-hospitalization-death-covid-steadily.html).
> 
> As to the fourth, I appreciate the point and there's some inherent truth to it. But, again, it is quite mitigated by at least two important factors. The first is, to go to Hawaii (without quarantine) you'd have to have been tested negative. So whatever lack of caution you have displayed, you've tested negative. Second, going to Hawaii isn't as likely in the demographics most affected by COVID. Factory workers, inner-city hourly workers, elder-care residents, prisons/jails, etc., those people aren't going to Hawaii. Hawaii -generally- (broad brush stroke here) is visited by younger people (low risk for serious illness) or people from a higher socio-economic status (e.g., have more money) which is also a statistically relatively low risk group for COVID infection.



I didn't know that your comments were contingent on the promised, but not yet delivered, testing before flight so no quaratnine policy which we have been advocating for.  In view of that I understand #1&2.  I do have some comments on 3&4.  

#3, we are in the over 70 group so our perspective is different than yours on travelling.

#4, I stand by my statement that those that the more cautious would be travelling would in general be less cautious so the chance of infection would be greater not less when traveling.  The really cautious are swearing off traveling until there is an effective vaccine.  Furthermfore, while I agree with you that at times more younger people travel to Hawaii than older people.  However, during the months of Jan, Feb, and March when we usually go there are so many older retired people getting away from the cold in Hawaii like we do.


----------



## dsmrp

Just saw on the news that the Big Island is closing beaches for 2 weeks starting today.  Restroom facilities will still be open. And walking access to the water of course.


----------



## Tamaradarann

Tamaradarann said:


> I got distracted typing this one above so I cleaned it up to make some sense.
> 
> #4, I stand by my statement that those that are less cautious would be travelling so the chance of infection would be greater not less when traveling on the plane.  The really cautious are swearing off traveling until there is an effective vaccine.  Furthermore, while I agree with you that at times like when school is out more younger people travel to Hawaii than older people, during the months of Jan, Feb, and March, when we usually go, there are so many older retired people getting away from the cold in Hawaii like we do.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> However, during the months of Jan, Feb, and March when we usually go there are so many older retired people getting away from the cold in Hawaii like we do.


I understand and appreciate that, however, those "older retired people" still are not coming from the high risk areas such as factory workers, farm workers, elder care facilities/nursing homes, low-wage earners, prisons and jails, etc., and they aren't hanging out in small bars or clubs or fraternity houses. I have no data, but I wonder how many of the 180k that have died were over the age of 70 and living in their own home and NOT living in a shared type facility such as a nursing home or assisted living? Someone like you is, really, at quite low risk of contracting COVID. 

At the end of the day there is cavalier. There is cautious. And there is overly cautious. Nothing wrong with overly cautious, except for all you give up that you didn't need to give up. It's not unlike investing. Yes, you can invest solely in US Treasuries and know there's no risk. But, you also make no money. Investment grade corporate bonds carry remote risk, but pay 5-10x as much.


----------



## csodjd

211 cases today is actually quite encouraging given the surge testing going on. This data for Honolulu is pretty encouraging. Leveling off even as testing is increasing.


----------



## jabberwocky

The surge testing results are even more encouraging. Less than 1% positivity rate.










						HHS: Less than 1% of Hawaii’s ’surge’ tests conducted so far have come back positive
					

In a statement Thursday, the US Department of Health and Human Services said that of 15,152 specimens tested, 92 were positive. That’s a positivity rate of less than 1%.



					www.hawaiinewsnow.com
				




This is essentially as close as you will come to zero cases given potential false-positives.


----------



## csodjd

jabberwocky said:


> The surge testing results are even more encouraging. Less than 1% positivity rate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> HHS: Less than 1% of Hawaii’s ’surge’ tests conducted so far have come back positive
> 
> 
> In a statement Thursday, the US Department of Health and Human Services said that of 15,152 specimens tested, 92 were positive. That’s a positivity rate of less than 1%.
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is essentially as close as you will come to zero cases given potential false-positives.



7-day positive is 3.6%. That's also good. And obviously it's dropping. It is 4.1% in Honolulu, down from 8.9% on August 25. It seems clear that the stay home orders are working. It's now been one week. Most, but not all, of the infections from exposures prior to the order should be showing up. By Tuesday that 7-day ought to be below 2% IF -- IF -- this weekend doesn't screw it all up!


----------



## csodjd

Was just reading that the Lt. Gov. wants to extend the orders for two more weeks. He believes they need two 14-day cycles to ensure things are under control, and he said they need new infections below 150. I think maybe he's being a bit pessimistic. We're still almost a week from the end of the first period. It could certainly be below 150 by then, because all the pre-order exposures are now manifesting. I could see a 1-wk extension, but two may be more than is necessary. 

It does seem to me that if the Oct 1 date is to be extended to Nov 1, that's going to be announced by about the 15th of Sept.


----------



## slip

271 cases today, I think they will extend the stay at home order for two more weeks early next week. Before when decisions were being made, they were always done monthly. They started this with two weeks and I think they will extend it two more weeks.

I remember Governor Ige saying he wanted daily cases to be below 50 cases.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> 271 cases today, I think they will extend the stay at home order for two more weeks early next week. Before when decisions were being made, they were always done monthly. They started this with two weeks and I think they will extend it two more weeks.
> 
> I remember Governor Ige saying he wanted daily cases to be below 50 cases.


You're probably right, but there is a certain amount of that that doesn't make sense. They quintupled the testing so now they're finding out probably for the first time what the REAL number of active/new cases was, so of course there appears to be more. But the infection RATE is dropping. Even at a 1% rate, if you test enough people you'll have 200 cases! I know they are fixated on hospital capacity, but if the infection RATE is dropping, all the other pieces fall into place.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> I remember Governor Ige saying he wanted daily cases to be below 50 cases.


Maybe then they should just do less testing!


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> You're probably right, but there is a certain amount of that that doesn't make sense. They quintupled the testing so now they're finding out probably for the first time what the REAL number of active/new cases was, so of course there appears to be more. But the infection RATE is dropping. Even at a 1% rate, if you test enough people you'll have 200 cases! I know they are fixated on hospital capacity, but if the infection RATE is dropping, all the other pieces fall into place.



I’m just going off past history and what they said. I’m really not trying to figure out anything. I have to keep up with what is happening for work.


----------



## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> You're probably right, but there is a certain amount of that that doesn't make sense. *They quintupled the testing so now they're finding out probably for the first time what the REAL number of active/new cases was*, so of course there appears to be more. But the infection RATE is dropping. Even at a 1% rate, if you test enough people you'll have 200 cases! I know they are fixated on hospital capacity, but if the infection RATE is dropping, all the other pieces fall into place.



I am not sure I agree with that statement. They are testing 90,000 people but 950,000 live on Oahu so they only test less than 10% of the population. They can still potentially miss *a lot* of infected people. Yes, they will report a bit more infections but since they test a fraction of the population they will only capture a part of the real number.  By testing a lot, the positivity rate will drop significantly and that  will be very misleading since it is like shooting in the dark, you will certainly  miss more . Of course the lockdown will lower the number of infections in the next couple of weeks but they will not drop to zero so that will resolve nothing since the numbers can go back up in no time once they lift the restrictions. IMO they should just be straight and tell both locals and visitors what to expect: before a good chunk of the population gets the vaccine, Hawaii will not open. If they open before they will look like fools since they could have done it already by now.


----------



## frank808

I expect the stay at home order to be extended for 2 more weeks.

It might be a conspiracy theory of mine.  The mayor issued a 2 week stay at home order originally.  I believe the intention all along was a 30 day stay at home but that would be very unpopular and met with a lot of resistance.  So a 2 week order was issued instead.  If the cases stayed high then he can justify another 2 weeks.  If the numbers dropped but not to the low teens, he can say that the order is working, but we need another 2 weeks to get it under control.  So he gets his 30 day stay at home with very little opposition.


----------



## dsmrp

frank808 said:


> I expect the stay at home order to be extended for 2 more weeks.
> 
> It might be a conspiracy theory of mine.  The mayor issued a 2 week stay at home order originally.  I believe the intention all along was a 30 day stay at home but that would be very unpopular and met with a lot of resistance.  So a 2 week order was issued instead.  If the cases stayed high then he can justify another 2 weeks.  If the numbers dropped but not to the low teens, he can say that the order is working, but we need another 2 weeks to get it under control.  So he gets his 30 day stay at home with very little opposition.


I can really see that .
I just don't feel that they have a cohesive sustainable plan. There was another turnover at leadership level, reported a couple of days ago. This time, I believe, the lead of the Health dept's investigation, contact tracing section.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...in-of-command-issues-at-department-of-health/

The state epidemiologist just a little earlier was put on administrative leave.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...g-leave-of-absence-from-department-of-health/

 They can't effectively implement a plan, if they have one, if everyone is not on the same page.


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> I am not sure I agree with that statement. They are testing 90,000 people but 950,000 live on Oahu so they only test less than 10% of the population. They can still potentially miss *a lot* of infected people. Yes, they will report a bit more infections but since they test a fraction of the population they will only capture a part of the real number.  By testing a lot, the positivity rate will drop significantly and that  will be very misleading since it is like shooting in the dark, you will certainly  miss more . Of course the lockdown will lower the number of infections in the next couple of weeks but they will not drop to zero so that will resolve nothing since the numbers can go back up in no time once they lift the restrictions. IMO they should just be straight and tell both locals and visitors what to expect: before a good chunk of the population gets the vaccine, Hawaii will not open. If they open before they will look like fools since they could have done it already by now.


There won’t be a Hawaii to open if it remains closed for another 6-12 months. The supporting businesses will be gone. Restaurants will be gone. Employees will be gone. And the state may well be in a full-scale depression with 20-30% unemployment and widespread poverty. I don’t think closure for a year from now is an option. 

Those with symptoms get tested in all likelihood. What the data is picking up are those that are infected but not showing symptoms. 

You are right, the numbers can go back up when they lift the restrictions IF they don’t change anything. But the numbers will be managed and kept down if they have a good testing and contact tracing program. Closing down, then reopening, without that is a waste of time.


----------



## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> There won’t be a Hawaii to open if it remains closed for another 6-12 months. The supporting businesses will be gone. Restaurants will be gone. Employees will be gone. And the state may well be in a full-scale depression with 20-30% unemployment and widespread poverty. I don’t think closure for a year from now is an option.
> 
> Those with symptoms get tested in all likelihood. What the data is picking up are those that are infected but not showing symptoms.
> 
> You are right, the numbers can go back up when they lift the restrictions IF they don’t change anything. But the numbers will be managed and kept down if they have a good testing and contact tracing program. Closing down, then reopening, without that is a waste of time.


Is there any evidence that before   they were not testing people with symptoms due to the lack of capacity? I guess not. If they were testing everyone who wanted to be tested, the surge in testing will bring mostly people without symptoms and people who do not need to be tested.


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> Is there any evidence that before   they were not testing people with symptoms due to the lack of capacity? I guess not. If they were testing everyone who wanted to be tested, the surge in testing will bring mostly people without symptoms and people who do not need to be tested.


People with symptoms always had access to testing by going to the doctor or hospital, and by doing that, got tested. What’s changed is they have (finally) made testing widely available and accessible to whomever wanted it. This is a form of surveillance testing. The most likely people to make the effort to get tested are those that have a concern, either due to risky behavior or exposures, however, so it’s not pure surveillance testing. Nonetheless, the larger the sample group, the more reliable the data.

Today a 3.3% positive test result 7-day moving average is reported. Also, the Rt is now reported in Hawaii as below 1.0. That’s the first time its been below 1.0 in a while. Both indicate declining new cases. Of course, that’s not occurring in a vacuum, it’s occurring precisely in sync with moderate shut-down orders. So, it’s the hoped for and expected result. Irrespective of the gross number of new cases, declining percentages of positive tests and declining Rt are both indicative of an improving environment and reduced community spread. The gross/raw numbers will follow. First in new cases, then in hospitalizations. As long as Labor Day weekend doesn’t screw it up, by next Thursday the number of new cases ought to be below 50 even with a lot of testing.

It would, IMO, be prudent to extend the shut-down orders another week. Two weeks seems unnecessary to me. But I have a hard time seeing how they don’t extend the orders regarding travel. Would be nice if they only go to mid-Oct to give time to decide in later September when the full impact of the orders has played out. I’m guessing they’ll go to Nov. 1.


----------



## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> People with symptoms always had access to testing by going to the doctor or hospital, and by doing that, got tested. What’s changed is they have (finally) made testing widely available and accessible to whomever wanted it. This is a form of surveillance testing. The most likely people to make the effort to get tested are those that have a concern, either due to risky behavior or exposures, however, so it’s not pure surveillance testing. Nonetheless, the larger the sample group, the more reliable the data.
> 
> Today a 3.3% positive test result 7-day moving average is reported. Also, the Rt is now reported in Hawaii as below 1.0. That’s the first time its been below 1.0 in a while. Both indicate declining new cases. Of course, that’s not occurring in a vacuum, it’s occurring precisely in sync with moderate shut-down orders. So, it’s the hoped for and expected result. Irrespective of the gross number of new cases, declining percentages of positive tests and declining Rt are both indicative of an improving environment and reduced community spread. The gross/raw numbers will follow. First in new cases, then in hospitalizations. As long as Labor Day weekend doesn’t screw it up, by next Thursday the number of new cases ought to be below 50 even with a lot of testing.


I do not disagree with you. Lowering the numbers when they  lock down is easy but as we know it is not sustainable in the long run.  The hard part starts after they lift the restrictions.


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> as we know it is not sustainable in the long run. The hard part starts after they lift the restrictions.


It does indeed. 

I'm not sure what "sustainable" is or if it even matters. What matters is manageable. Manageable at a level of infections that the health care system can handle the cases that go badly, manageable at a level that contact tracers can do their job effectively to limit community spread, and manageable at a level that businesses, including service businesses like restaurants and the tourist industry, can safely operate. 

It is clear to me that COVID will be with us for quite some time to come. I don't see (foresee) any meaningful elimination of the COVID threat in the next 12 months -- and that's IF an effective vaccine is developed (effective meaning > 60% receiving it are protected for a year or more). So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it -- especially keeping people that do get a "bad" case alive, off respirators, and out of the ICU with effective treatments. More Zoom. More masks. Working from home. Outdoor dining. No super-spreader events. More testing (home tests!). Avoiding high risk like bars, big indoor parties, fraternity parties, etc.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> It is clear to me that COVID will be with us for quite some time to come. I don't see (foresee) any meaningful elimination of the COVID threat in the next 12 months -- and that's IF an effective vaccine is developed (effective meaning > 60% receiving it are protected for a year or more). So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it -- especially keeping people that do get a "bad" case alive, off respirators, and out of the ICU with effective treatments. More Zoom. More masks. Working from home. Outdoor dining. No super-spreader events. More testing (home tests!). Avoiding high risk like bars, big indoor parties, fraternity parties, etc.



^^THIS

This is what some of us have been advocating since early this year. It seems most now realize there is no magical cure for this mess.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## jabberwocky

@csodjd I hope you are right - but you are much more optimistic than I am.  I think a November opening is possible, but I'm pulling the plug on my March Maui reservations and moving them to August next year.  The risk is just too great and I have lost quite a bit of confidence that the islands will have a reasonable way to travel there without avoiding quarantine.


----------



## csodjd

jabberwocky said:


> @csodjd I hope you are right - but you are much more optimistic than I am.  I think a November opening is possible, but I'm pulling the plug on my March Maui reservations and moving them to August next year.  The risk is just too great and I have lost quite a bit of confidence that the islands will have a reasonable way to travel there without avoiding quarantine.


I consider the last point, to me, to be the most important. I don't find it difficult to enjoy Hawaii without engaging in, really, ANY risky activities. We don't go to bars, nightclubs, concerts, parties, etc. Its beach. Golf. Morning coffee on the lanai. Outdoor dinners, or home cooked dinners on the lanai. Just need to be able to get there and back. 

I also happen to believe that infection risk outdoors is low. Not impossible, but not common. We're certainly not hearing of major outbreaks from the Sturgis biker event in South Dakota. Some cases, but I'm betting those are related to the bars and nightclubs. There were 250k people there. There should be 1000's and 1000's of cases if outdoor spread was easy. Same with all the protests around the Country. Compare those with college parties, where we're hearing about 1000's of cases in colleges already. It just doesn't seem to spread much in the open spaces where viral concentrations don't accumulate. My country club has been having outdoor breakfasts, lunches and dinners now for weeks. They are quite crowded and busy, but spaced out. Tables nicely separated, and not more than six at a round table that could hold ten. No known cases. With that in mind, Hawaii is pretty much the ideal place to be if you want to avoid risk and still have a life.


----------



## cman

csodjd said:


> It is clear to me that COVID will be with us for quite some time to come. I don't see (foresee) any meaningful elimination of the COVID threat in the next 12 months -- and that's IF an effective vaccine is developed (effective meaning > 60% receiving it are protected for a year or more). So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it


You make a very good point. Smallpox is the only virus (that effects humans), that has been eradicated by human intervention. The rest of them have been contained/managed. Even polio is still out there. It's just a few hundred cases per year, but it supports your point that this thing most likely will be with us for awhile.


----------



## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> ^^THIS
> 
> This is what some of us have been advocating since early this year. It seems most now realize there is no magical cure for this mess.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


No, no magical cures. But it has taken some time to figure it out. To figure out how it spreads. To figure out what is risky and what isn't. To figure out HOW to get back closer to normal. And for the doctors to learn how to treat patients. Who goes badly and who doesn't? Who can go home and who needs to be admitted? What treatments work and which don't? I don't think the virus is any less deadly than it was in March, I just think medical care now knows how to keep most people (compared with March) from dying, and that will continue to improve. If they knew then what they know now, its likely we'd have far fewer deaths from COVID.


----------



## Ken555

csodjd said:


> No, no magical cures. But it has taken some time to figure it out. To figure out how it spreads. To figure out what is risky and what isn't. To figure out HOW to get back closer to normal. And for the doctors to learn how to treat patients. Who goes badly and who doesn't? Who can go home and who needs to be admitted? What treatments work and which don't? I don't think the virus is any less deadly than it was in March, I just think medical care now knows how to keep most people (compared with March) from dying, and that will continue to improve. If they knew then what they know now, its likely we'd have far fewer deaths from COVID.



Yup. That’s why many of us advocated social distancing by staying at home as much as possible, especially in areas with troubling numbers.

And yet just today several of my neighbors were congregating without masks. Last time I spoke with these individuals, they just didn’t believe that it was as infectious or troubling as we know it is.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## dsmrp

Local news article about latest businesses WARN layoff notices:
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...triggers-mass-layoffs-traveler-cancellations/


----------



## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> It does indeed.
> 
> I'm not sure what "sustainable" is or if it even matters. What matters is manageable. Manageable at a level of infections that the health care system can handle the cases that go badly, manageable at a level that contact tracers can do their job effectively to limit community spread, and manageable at a level that businesses, including service businesses like restaurants and the tourist industry, can safely operate.
> 
> It is clear to me that COVID will be with us for quite some time to come. I don't see (foresee) any meaningful elimination of the COVID threat in the next 12 months -- and that's IF an effective vaccine is developed (effective meaning > 60% receiving it are protected for a year or more). So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it -- especially keeping people that do get a "bad" case alive, off respirators, and out of the ICU with effective treatments. More Zoom. More masks. Working from home. Outdoor dining. No super-spreader events. More testing (home tests!). Avoiding high risk like bars, big indoor parties, fraternity parties, etc.


Sustainable means a policy that they do not have to change every 3 weeks, that is transparent in terms of costs and benefits, that does not bankrupt part of the population and weakens considerably the state's resources (with all the socio *and  health* consequences), that is consistent and that they can keep in the medium term, and that in general minimizes the negative effects in the medium and long term (not focused on just the next 15 days) and takes into consideration people's happiness in addition their health.


----------



## LannyPC

csodjd said:


> So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it -- especially keeping people that do get a "bad" case alive, off respirators, and out of the ICU with effective treatments. More Zoom. More masks. Working from home. Outdoor dining. No super-spreader events. More testing (home tests!). Avoiding high risk like bars, big indoor parties, fraternity parties, etc.



While that may be true, this is a case of easier said than done.  What you are suggesting here has been suggested for the last six months or so yet many people.... (well, you can fill in the blanks on the rest).


----------



## Tacoma

In August there was a news that Canadians were going to be allowed to go to Hawaii and avoid the 14 day quarantine if they had a negative test within 3 days. I looked on the Hawaii website and it says everyone must quarantine. Does anyone know the actual answer to this?


----------



## jabberwocky

csodjd said:


> I consider the last point, to me, to be the most important. I don't find it difficult to enjoy Hawaii without engaging in, really, ANY risky activities. We don't go to bars, nightclubs, concerts, parties, etc. Its beach. Golf. Morning coffee on the lanai. Outdoor dinners, or home cooked dinners on the lanai. Just need to be able to get there and back.
> 
> I also happen to believe that infection risk outdoors is low. Not impossible, but not common. We're certainly not hearing of major outbreaks from the Sturgis biker event in South Dakota. Some cases, but I'm betting those are related to the bars and nightclubs. There were 250k people there. There should be 1000's and 1000's of cases if outdoor spread was easy. Same with all the protests around the Country. Compare those with college parties, where we're hearing about 1000's of cases in colleges already. It just doesn't seem to spread much in the open spaces where viral concentrations don't accumulate. My country club has been having outdoor breakfasts, lunches and dinners now for weeks. They are quite crowded and busy, but spaced out. Tables nicely separated, and not more than six at a round table that could hold ten. No known cases. With that in mind, Hawaii is pretty much the ideal place to be if you want to avoid risk and still have a life.


Completely agree with you 100%.  Pretty much the only indoor thing we do in Hawaii where we are in a crowded space would be dine-in restaurants or a bit of shopping.  Most of our other activities involve being outdoors (hiking, snorkeling, or just hanging out in a pool).  It really comes down to DDSS (Don't Do Stupid S___).

I'm not even sure I would classify the actual flight to Hawaii as being high risk given mask requirements and aircraft air filtration.  We've now had over 1000 flights in Canada with at least one confirmed case of covid-19 onboard (many have been overseas flights).  Despite very good contact tracing and testing, there has not been a single instance of confirmed transmission to other passengers on the flight.


----------



## jabberwocky

Tacoma said:


> In August there was a news that Canadians were going to be allowed to go to Hawaii and avoid the 14 day quarantine if they had a negative test within 3 days. I looked on the Hawaii website and it says everyone must quarantine. Does anyone know the actual answer to this?


I think this was for everyone.  There wasn't a specific Canadian exception.  Early on there was some talk about giving preference to places with low case counts (Japan was mentioned), but I don't think Canada was in the mix.


----------



## slip

Tacoma said:


> In August there was a news that Canadians were going to be allowed to go to Hawaii and avoid the 14 day quarantine if they had a negative test within 3 days. I looked on the Hawaii website and it says everyone must quarantine. Does anyone know the actual answer to this?



Right now Trans-Pacific flights to Hawaii require a 14 day quarantine. Starting October 1st, the quarantine can be avoided with a negative test no more than 3 days before arrival. But, that was supposed to start September 1st and was moved back. Many people believe it will be pushed back again.


----------



## echino

Tacoma said:


> In August there was a news that Canadians were going to be allowed to go to Hawaii and avoid the 14 day quarantine if they had a negative test within 3 days. I looked on the Hawaii website and it says everyone must quarantine. Does anyone know the actual answer to this?



I saw those news too. Bad reporting. There was no specific exemption for Canadians.


----------



## Tacoma

Yes probably a combination of Hawaii was supposed to open up in Sept but then changed direction.  Seems like everyone will have to wait a little longer. Thanks. Joan


----------



## DannyTS

Hawaii commercial real estate sales crashing
					

Hawaii’s commercial real estate market is on pace to have its worst year in more than a decade, as investors, like tourists, largely stay away.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## DannyTS

this is what people are going through









						Here's How These Hawaii Workers Are Navigating The Pandemic Economy
					

Three residents share their strategies for overcoming longterm unemployment and sunken business models as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the local economy.




					www.civilbeat.org


----------



## csodjd

66 new cases reported today. 105 yesterday. 164 the day before that. Three points of note:
1. This is precisely the trend one would expect at the time it would be expected. We're about 11 days out from the new orders, so case counts should be dropping a lot. 
2. It was Labor Day weekend and it's unclear if that impacted the reported number of cases. 
3. Testing was way down over the weekend, no doubt due to Labor Day weekend. Test less and you find fewer cases. 

Here are the new cases:




Here's the testing data:




Hard to ignore that the two graphs look about the same, so it will be another 1-2 days before we really know if the shut-down in Oahu has done the trick.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> Oahu stay at home order extended for two more weeks. Beaches and parks are open for solo activities.
> 
> Dine-in at restaurants still not allowed.


Any clues given when a decision on whether to move the Oct 1 date to Nov 1?


----------



## csodjd

Mayor extends stay-at-home order, but reopens parks and beaches for solo activities
					

“The one thing we’re not going to do a second time is rush to reopen and then have a second spike."




					www.hawaiinewsnow.com


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> Any clues given when a decision on whether to move the Oct 1 date to Nov 1?



There will be another announcement tomorrow but it wasn’t specific if that would be announced.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> Mayor extends stay-at-home order, but reopens parks and beaches for solo activities
> 
> 
> “The one thing we’re not going to do a second time is rush to reopen and then have a second spike."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hawaiinewsnow.com



He also said they are basing decisions on at least a 7 day average of new case numbers and that a 14 day average is probably better so those averages are the numbers that they are looking at.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> There will be another announcement tomorrow but it wasn’t specific if that would be announced.


I realized that this announcement came from the Mayor of Honolulu. The travel rules are coming from the Governor.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> I realized that this announcement came from the Mayor of Honolulu. The travel rules are coming from the Governor.



The Governor is talking right now.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> He also said they are basing decisions on at least a 7 day average of new case numbers and that a 14 day average is probably better so those averages are the numbers that they are looking at.


I did see that he said they are looking for "sustained" lower case rates. Makes sense. Here is more "good" news (good in quote because I'm not sure how it's affected by the holiday weekend and reduced testing). If the Rt is, in fact, 0.89, that means the infection rate is dropping. A sustained rate of below 1.0 will result in reduction of new cases.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> I did see that he said they are looking for "sustained" lower case rates. Makes sense. Here is more "good" news (good in quote because I'm not sure how it's affected by the holiday weekend and reduced testing). If the Rt is, in fact, 0.89, that means the infection rate is dropping. A sustained rate of below 1.0 will result in reduction of new cases.
> 
> View attachment 26326



The Mayor said the re-opening will be very slow and cautious. The Governor was talking about rent and mortgage relief today. We’ll see if he talks about re-opening travel tomorrow. That still might not come until next week.


----------



## jabberwocky

I wonder if they will treat the different islands separately from each other. Maui seems to be doing very well overall? You could almost make the case that transpacific travel to OGG could be opened up with preflight testing. Oahu and BI are definitely no go right now and I would expect them to be extended.

This would give the state a chance to see how the pre-test protocols work and whether they are effective on a smaller scale.


----------



## PearlCity

jabberwocky said:


> I wonder if they will treat the different islands separately from each other. Maui seems to be doing very well overall? You could almost make the case that transpacific travel to OGG could be opened up with preflight testing. Oahu and BI are definitely no go right now and I would expect them to be extended.
> 
> This would give the state a chance to see how the pre-test protocols work and whether they are effective on a smaller scale.


Yup i agree. I think maui and kauai should open up thier econimies shouldn't suffer because of the other counties. 

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## slip

But both of those islands have extremely limited bed space for hospitals. I wouldn’t think they would do that but we’ll see.


----------



## frank808

Stay at home order extended on Oahu for another 14 days till Sept 24.

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## frank808

Observation I have made over the past couple weeks. 

I average about 2 calls a day asking what time I will be opening store. I have to constantly say that it is closed due to the stay at home order for non essential business. My business is sporting goods, so definitely non essential. When I mention it to callers they have no idea of the stay at home order. So either most people ignore it or are oblivious to it 

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## critterchick

I finally threw in the towel on our October 3 visit. I'm stubbornly hanging on to our late November/early December and February/March bookings, though. I haven't been brave enough to book flights in February, though (I booked November before all this hit the fan).


----------



## Fredflintstone

slip said:


> Right now Trans-Pacific flights to Hawaii require a 14 day quarantine. Starting October 1st, the quarantine can be avoided with a negative test no more than 3 days before arrival. But, that was supposed to start September 1st and was moved back. Many people believe it will be pushed back again.



I agree with the many @slip. I’ll bet you a drink whenever I can safely get to Hawaii that it’s extended to November 1st. We should know the answer in a week or so. The Canada US land border is closed and we too have a required 14 day quarantine upon return. That would mean 28 days quarantine. No thanks.


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## slip

Fredflintstone said:


> I agree with the many @slip. I’ll bet you a drink whenever I can safely get to Hawaii that it’s extended to November 1st. We should know the answer in a week or so. The Canada US land border is closed and we too have a required 14 day quarantine upon return. That would mean 28 days quarantine. No thanks.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



They were asking and I probably shouldn’t have put that last sentence in there. Your or my thoughts make no difference in the decision that will be made.


----------



## Fredflintstone

slip said:


> They were asking and I probably shouldn’t have put that last sentence in there. Your or my thoughts make no difference in the decision that will be made.



Yes, it’s not up to us for sure.


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## csodjd

frank808 said:


> Observation I have made over the past couple weeks.
> 
> I average about 2 calls a day asking what time I will be opening store. I have to constantly say that it is closed due to the stay at home order for non essential business. My business is sporting goods, so definitely non essential. When I mention it to callers they have no idea of the stay at home order. So either most people ignore it or are oblivious to it
> 
> Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


Sad and scary.


----------



## jabberwocky

frank808 said:


> Observation I have made over the past couple weeks.
> 
> I average about 2 calls a day asking what time I will be opening store. I have to constantly say that it is closed due to the stay at home order for non essential business. My business is sporting goods, so definitely non essential. When I mention it to callers they have no idea of the stay at home order. So either most people ignore it or are oblivious to it
> 
> Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


It might not be that far-out of a question.  Some jurisdictions consider sporting goods stores essential due to the fact that they sell hunting and fishing supplies (or maybe I'm thinking of a different kind of sporting good store).


----------



## frank808

Different sporting goods for a specific team sport. My goods would be about as non essential as there is. 

Fishing supply stores are open as they supply the commercial fishing trade which is essential.

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## csodjd

ljmiii said:


> There are slight modifications for outdoor activities. Parks, beaches and trails will reopen to allow for solo activities, including reading, meditating, eating lunch, jogging and sitting on the beach alone, the mayor said at a news conference at Honolulu Hale.
> 
> “One thing we’re not going to do a second time is rush to reopen and then have another spike and have that occur during the holiday season,” Caldwell said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> VIDEO: Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell extends stay-at-home, work-from-home order, with modifications
> 
> 
> UPDATE: 1:05 p.m.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com


I thought it was curious in one respect... “Sorry honey, you’ll have to go sit over there.” That’ll go well with your wife.


----------



## JanT

I thought that same thing - how strange it would be to go to the beach with my husband and have to sit apart from him.  



csodjd said:


> I thought it was curious in one respect... “Sorry honey, you’ll have to go sit over there.” That’ll go well with your wife.


----------



## rickandcindy23

We are going in February no matter what.  I saw an article that says they are hoping to open up to tourists for the holidays.  I hope they do, but in any case, the virus will not be gone completely, so I expect the self-quarantine to stay in place.  

What could happen is our resort may not be open for us to visit in February.  Hono Koa is a small resort with 27 units, and if I can go there and sit on the lanai, I would be a happy camper indeed.  Also Sands of Kahana may not be willing to have us there in February.  That is a big resort.  I think a lot of resorts are closed, but we get no information about Soleil-managed resorts.


----------



## slip

rickandcindy23 said:


> We are going in February no matter what.  I saw an article that says they are hoping to open up to tourists for the holidays.  I hope they do, but in any case, the virus will not be gone completely, so I expect the self-quarantine to stay in place.
> 
> What could happen is our resort may not be open for us to visit in February.  Hono Koa is a small resort with 27 units, and if I can go there and sit on the lanai, I would be a happy camper indeed.  Also Sands of Kahana may not be willing to have us there in February.  That is a big resort.  I think a lot of resorts are closed, but we get no information about Soleil-managed resorts.



Best thing to do is call and check and specifically ask if you can quarantine there if you need to.


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## magmue

I'm still holding out hope for the holidays too. We have a week booked at KBV from Dec 20-27 followed by 10 days at Kingsland. When we made the plans back in April/May, it seemed totally reasonable. Now it's feeling like a long shot.


----------



## csodjd

Latest data is promising. 100 new cases reported. Here is the graph. Give it another 1-2 weeks.


----------



## dsmrp

I doubt the Honolulu police patrolling the beaches are going to cite a couple sitting together on the beach. We went to Ft DeRussy end of Waikiki last week for 2 days. There was a small family with children digging in the sand, and other scattered couples and solos on the beach, when no one was supposed to be lounging. The police officer who drove by was more concerned about the 4-5 guys talking by the outdoor showers.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> Latest data is promising. 100 new cases reported. Here is the graph. Give it another 1-2 weeks.
> 
> View attachment 26391



Do we have any other choice but to wait two more weeks?


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> Do we have any other choice but to wait two more weeks?


What is your impression about Labor Day weekend? Is it going to result in another spike, or were residents complying well as best you can tell? That may be the difference between opening and not opening.


----------



## slip

csodjd said:


> What is your impression about Labor Day weekend? Is it going to result in another spike, or were residents complying well as best you can tell? That may be the difference between opening and not opening.



I only went grocery shopping and a short ride around Waikiki so that observation won’t help much.

But in all the conferences I have listened to from the Mayors, Governor and Lt. Governor, I haven’t heard anything that would even suggest that they will allow Trans-Pacific travel on October 1st. So my guess is that it will be extended to November 1st. I will guess that it will be announced late next week or early the week after next. Only my opinion so it’s not worth much.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> What is your impression about Labor Day weekend? Is it going to result in another spike, or were residents complying well as best you can tell? That may be the difference between opening and not opening.



I understand your focus on the infection rate and the Labor Day weekend in Hawaii since you have plans coming up to go there.  However, there are some other questions in my mind.  Did Labor Day cause another spike in the entire US?  How is the opening of schools across the US in September going to effect infection rates?  Remember Hawaii had only a few cases from March-June but the 14 day quarantine was put in effect due to the high number of cases across the US.


----------



## ljmiii

Additional 'Good News' for Hawaii is that the recent surge in testing did *not* result in a surge in cases.

(Data is through 9/9...it's still too early for today's data to be reflected)


----------



## ljmiii

Tamaradarann said:


> However, there are some other questions in my mind.  Did Labor Day cause another spike in the entire US?...


We'll know toward the end of next week. Figuring about a week for symptoms to develop inspiring people to get tested and another 3-4 days to get test results back from the lab.



Tamaradarann said:


> How is the opening of schools across the US in September going to effect infection rates?


Great question. I've been trying to find an August opening state that had most kids return to school *and* has continued to be serious about testing and thus far come up empty. Florida is out since they have gone from over 65K tests per day to below 20K. And I haven't been able to get good data about the percentage of students returning to school in other 'early' states that have maintained testing.

I don't know about Long Island but north of the city many districts are going all remote learning and those that are going 'back to school' are easing into it - our kids will attend one day of school in September.


----------



## Tamaradarann

ljmiii said:


> We'll know toward the end of next week. Figuring about a week for symptoms to develop inspiring people to get tested and another 3-4 days to get test results back from the lab.
> 
> We would love to back to Honolulu.  We won't go back until there is no quarantine.  Even when the quarantine is lifted we don't want to go back until Honolulu is somewhat back to the way it was so we can resume the lifestyle that we love when we are there.  We are not beach, water activities, hiking type people.   Hawaii is so dependent on Tourism to restart their economy and start to make Honolulu the way it was that I am less concerned about the actual numbers in Hawaii than I am about the numbers in the rest of the US.
> 
> 
> Great question. I've been trying to find an August opening state that had most kids return to school *and* has continued to be serious about testing and thus far come up empty. Florida is out since they have gone from over 65K tests per day to below 20K. And I haven't been able to get good data about the percentage of students returning to school in other 'early' states that have maintained testing.
> 
> I don't know about Long Island but north of the city many districts are going all remote learning and those that are going 'back to school' are easing into it - our kids will attend one day of school in September.



The schools are open on Long Island.  Already many of the Colleges that have opened are seeing many cases.  Going back one day in September seems ridiculous.  Why have all those kids and teachers to possibly be exposed to the virus for ONE DAY OF SCHOOL?


----------



## travelhacker

ljmiii said:


> We'll know toward the end of next week. Figuring about a week for symptoms to develop inspiring people to get tested and another 3-4 days to get test results back from the lab.
> 
> Great question. I've been trying to find an August opening state that had most kids return to school *and* has continued to be serious about testing and thus far come up empty. Florida is out since they have gone from over 65K tests per day to below 20K. And I haven't been able to get good data about the percentage of students returning to school in other 'early' states that have maintained testing.
> 
> I don't know about Long Island but north of the city many districts are going all remote learning and those that are going 'back to school' are easing into it - our kids will attend one day of school in September.


Colorado has had quite a few in person students (not all districts), but a good chunk open since August 17th. There has not been an increase in cases. Overall, new case count has gone down since then. 

There have been a lot of high schools that have had a student or two, some middle schools and some elementary schools. There really haven't been outbreaks that have been seen yet, but we'll see how that goes as the school year goes on.

Personally, I think the elementary model (1 teacher 20 students spaced away from each other for most of the day) is a lot more sustainable than High School where you have thousands of kids walking through halls to get to their next class.


----------



## csodjd

Lt. Gov. just said he believes they can and will open up October 1. He said they are working on details, including testing and possibly an option for two antigen tests (fast), but he doesn't see Oct. 1 being a big problem as things stand right now. I think this is the link to it, he says it about 6:25 into this:

www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1875428385942999&extid=3z4pMXnKoU6dOeYF


----------



## rickandcindy23

csodjd said:


> Lt. Gov. just said he believes they can and will open up October 1. He said they are working on details, including testing and possibly an option for two antigen tests (fast), but he doesn't see Oct. 1 being a big problem as things stand right now. I think this is the link to it, he says it about 6:25 into this:
> 
> www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1875428385942999&extid=3z4pMXnKoU6dOeYF


I will believe it when I see it.  We will be going in February, and hopefully Hawaii will be open by 2/15.  That is our arrival date.  Fingers crossed.


----------



## csodjd

rickandcindy23 said:


> I will believe it when I see it.  We will be going in February, and hopefully Hawaii will be open by 2/15.  That is our arrival date.  Fingers crossed.


I'd imagine we will have to hear from the Governor one way or the other sometime in the next week, maybe sooner. It's only about 20 days from the current opening date. It'll be interesting to see how many actually can and do come the first few weeks after opening given the lack of much advance notice, lack of certainty, the need to get a test and quick results, etc. - not to mention the challenges once they arrive (closed restaurants, etc.) I find it unlikely that, even if they stick with Oct 1, that'll result in more than a few hundred people in the first week or two.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> I'd imagine we will have to hear from the Governor one way or the other sometime in the next week, maybe sooner. It's only about 20 days from the current opening date. It'll be interesting to see how many actually can and do come the first few weeks after opening given the lack of much advance notice, lack of certainty, the need to get a test and quick results, etc. - not to mention the challenges once they arrive (closed restaurants, etc.) I find it unlikely that, even if they stick with Oct 1, that'll result in more than a few hundred people in the first week or two.



You did hear that the Hilton Hawaiian Village, the largest Resort in Hawaii, is closed until December 15th.  They are probably hoping to open for the Christmas/New Years Peak Event Weeks.  While there are certainly other resorts open, that is the one we normal stay at.


----------



## amy241

Tamaradarann said:


> You did hear that the Hilton Hawaiian Village, the largest Resort in Hawaii, is closed until December 15th.  They are probably hoping to open for the Christmas/New Years Peak Event Weeks.  While there are certainly other resorts open, that is the one we normal stay at.



I heard all of the Hilton Grand Vacation Club resorts (except Hokulani) are presently closed in Hawaii but have not heard any reopening dates. We are holding a reservation for HGV Kings Land on the Big Island for December. I don’t know if we will be receiving a cancellation notice soon or not.


----------



## frank808

amy241 said:


> I heard all of the Hilton Grand Vacation Club resorts (except Hokulani) are presently closed in Hawaii but have not heard any reopening dates.



You can try moving your reservations to Kohala Suites or Bay Club as they are open right now. 

Sent from my SM-T377P using Tapatalk


----------



## amy241

frank808 said:


> You can try moving your reservations to Kohala Suites or Bay Club as they are open right now.
> 
> Sent from my SM-T377P using Tapatalk



Thanks for the suggestion. I have only 5000 points to work with so I have to see if that will work for our dates.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> You did hear that the Hilton Hawaiian Village, the largest Resort in Hawaii, is closed until December 15th.  They are probably hoping to open for the Christmas/New Years Peak Event Weeks.  While there are certainly other resorts open, that is the one we normal stay at.


Curious because I just changed some reservations I had in the Grand Islander (canceled them) into the Lagoon Tower (made them) for Oct 26 - Nov 7. Had no problem booking the room and received my confirmation.

Edit: Here is what it says on the website. I gather from that message that it's closed and awaiting opening when they can.


----------



## csodjd

Updated data is, again, fairly promising. 

Infection rate is down to 2.4% over the past 7 days:



 

ICU beds remain very available. 244 total beds, 50 being used by COVID (about 100 being used by non-COVID), and that number is staying stable. 

7-day trend on cases remains downward:


----------



## csodjd

One more bit of going the right direction. Rt is remaining below 1.0. This implies a slowing infections, which is what is being seen. IF (big if?) Labor Day weekend didn't/doesn't screw up the momentum, this should bode well for Hawaii as October continues with Honolulu restricted to essential businesses.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Curious because I just changed some reservations I had in the Grand Islander (canceled them) into the Lagoon Tower (made them) for Oct 26 - Nov 7. Had no problem booking the room and received my confirmation.
> 
> Edit: Here is what it says on the website. I gather from that message that it's closed and awaiting opening when they can.
> 
> View attachment 26457


Did you book on line or by phone?  I just went on line again and see NO Availability until December 15th.


----------



## jabberwocky

Tamaradarann said:


> Did you book on line or by phone?  I just went on line again and see NO Availability until December 15th.


I just checked as well.  Nothing available until Dec. 15th online.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> Did you book on line or by phone?  I just went on line again and see NO Availability until December 15th.


I booked on-line on 9-4. They even charged the $69 reservation fee.

I too just went on the website and, as you say, it no longer allows the booking. Instead, this comes up. Note the new check-in rules they have there.


----------



## csodjd

This story today:

HONOLULU, Hawaii (HawaiiNewsNow) - There are just three days left to get a free COVID-19 test on Oahu as surge testing wraps up Monday. As of Thursday, nearly 34,000 surge tests were administered, with only 187 coming back positive. Experts say that indicates COVID-19 is likely not spreading rapidly in the community.

That's a remarkably low infection rate, 187 out of 34,000. Makes me wonder where the 167 new cases came from?


----------



## PearlCity

Well. Lt gov is positive https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...-tested-covid-after-positive-case-his-office/



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----------



## jabberwocky

csodjd said:


> This story today:
> 
> HONOLULU, Hawaii (HawaiiNewsNow) - There are just three days left to get a free COVID-19 test on Oahu as surge testing wraps up Monday. As of Thursday, nearly 34,000 surge tests were administered, with only 187 coming back positive. Experts say that indicates COVID-19 is likely not spreading rapidly in the community.
> 
> That's a remarkably low infection rate, 187 out of 34,000. Makes me wonder where the 167 new cases came from?


I think the surge totals are being counted in a separate bucket from the regular testing they are doing (from contact tracing and those with symptoms.). The total cases include the surge tests, but the surge test totals don’t include those from contact tracing. 

This probably partly explains the large drop in the positivity rate and why we are starting to see it rise again.

If true this is good news. It means that they can probably open up and that they are chasing down the cases with contact tracing. I’m particularly pleased they the hospitalization figures are staying within reasonable bounds.


----------



## csodjd

jabberwocky said:


> I think the surge totals are being counted in a separate bucket from the regular testing they are doing (from contact tracing and those with symptoms.). The total cases include the surge tests, but the surge test totals don’t include those from contact tracing.
> 
> This probably partly explains the large drop in the positivity rate and why we are starting to see it rise again.
> 
> If true this is good news. It means that they can probably open up and that they are chasing down the cases with contact tracing. I’m particularly pleased they the hospitalization figures are staying within reasonable bounds.


Yes, ICU figures have been very stable over many weeks, suggesting that even if people are getting COVID, they are getting less serious cases. But that’s been the case with Hawaii all along, as it’s deaths per capita continues to be among the lowest in the US since pretty much day 1. Whether that’s because there’s more outside transmission (with lower viral loads?) or a more resistant population (genetic or other innate differences in susceptibility?) or something else, I don’t know.


----------



## dsmrp

Hawaii Lt Gov tests positive for Covid-19.  Doing well at home.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/09/12/hawaii-news/lt-gov-josh-green-tests-positive/


----------



## csodjd

131 New cases reported. Lt. Gov. said earlier this week that they need it sustained at 150 or below to be able to open Oct 1. They are on that pace with a current 7-day moving average of 129 that's steadily dropping. The infection rate is steady at 2.4%. Rt improved to 0.86. 

Notably, its now 5 days since Labor Day, which means new cases from "misbehaving" over the weekend are now appearing if they're going to appear (though they can appear for up to 14 days, the majority occur within about 5-6 days). So one would imagine that some of those 131 are from Labor Day weekend exposure/infection, and there's no clear bump or jump, which bodes well. It should steadily drop from here.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> 131 New cases reported. Lt. Gov. said earlier this week that they need it sustained at 150 or below to be able to open Oct 1. They are on that pace with a current 7-day moving average of 129 that's steadily dropping. The infection rate is steady at 2.4%. Rt improved to 0.86.
> 
> Notably, its now 5 days since Labor Day, which means new cases from "misbehaving" over the weekend are now appearing if they're going to appear (though they can appear for up to 14 days, the majority occur within about 5-6 days). So one would imagine that some of those 131 are from Labor Day weekend exposure/infection, and there's no clear bump or jump, which bodes well. It should steadily drop from here.
> 
> View attachment 26504


So the Lt. Governor said that if they sustain an infection rate below 150 they can "open" October 1.  Does that mean open to let visitors from the Continental US come without having a 14 day Quarantine, or just allow people that are already in Honolulu to go out on the street whenever they want not just for essential reasons?  For my purposes "open" means allowing visitors to come without having to endure a 14 day quarantine as long as they have had a Coronavirus test within 3 days with a negative result.  If that is not what is meant then this announcment has no relevance to me.  If the meaning of open is what I described above then I have 2 thoughts with respect to that.  One is that Hawaii didn't have anywhere near 150 cases back in June and July and they didn't open for the arrival of visitors.  Two is that the Lt. Governor is saying this, what does the Governor say?


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> So the Lt. Governor said that if they sustain an infection rate below 150 they can "open" October 1.  Does that mean open to let visitors from the Continental US come without having a 14 day Quarantine, or just allow people that are already in Honolulu to go out on the street whenever they want not just for essential reasons?  For my purposes "open" means allowing visitors to come without having to endure a 14 day quarantine as long as they have had a Coronavirus test within 3 days with a negative result.  If that is not what is meant then this announcment has no relevance to me.  If the meaning of open is what I described above then I have 2 thoughts with respect to that.  One is that Hawaii didn't have anywhere near 150 cases back in June and July and they didn't open for the arrival of visitors.  Two is that the Lt. Governor is saying this, what does the Governor say?


The Lt. Gov. means open for trans-pacific visitors subject to a negative test. But, yes, he‘s not the Governor. I don’t see what June/July has to do with any of this. There’s little doubt that if Hawaii had maintained its very low case rate it would have opened already to trans-pacific travelers. But they didn’t.


----------



## b2bailey

I've held onto my hope for a 70th Birthday trip to Maui in mid October. Made a few changes so I can quarantine 14 days at Marriott Kaanapali, if need be. Being retired, my time is cheap.

On the slight possibility that Oct 1 will be allowing entry with proof of negative test, I have started to look at possible testing sites in the Santa Cruz/San Jose vicinity because that's where I will be prior to flight departure.

So far, no success. Now I am imagining Maui open for inbound, but me not able to get tested. What to do?


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> The Lt. Gov. means open for trans-pacific visitors subject to a negative test. But, yes, he‘s not the Governor. I don’t see what June/July has to do with any of this. There’s little doubt that if Hawaii had maintained its very low case rate it would have opened already to trans-pacific travelers. But they didn’t.



OK, do you agree that back in June and July there were the very low case rates in Hawaii, much lower than 150/day.  In June there was talk of opening Hawaii to Trans-Pacific Visitors but the Governor extended the 14 Quarantine over and over again.  Now the cases are much higher than in June and July, so what is so great about coming down to less than 150 cases/day make him open Hawaii to visitors?


----------



## amy241

Tamaradarann said:


> So the Lt. Governor said that if they sustain an infection rate below 150 they can "open" October 1.  Does that mean open to let visitors from the Continental US come without having a 14 day Quarantine, or just allow people that are already in Honolulu to go out on the street whenever they want not just for essential reasons?  For my purposes "open" means allowing visitors to come without having to endure a 14 day quarantine as long as they have had a Coronavirus test within 3 days with a negative result.  If that is not what is meant then this announcment has no relevance to me.  If the meaning of open is what I described above then I have 2 thoughts with respect to that.  One is that Hawaii didn't have anywhere near 150 cases back in June and July and they didn't open for the arrival of visitors.  Two is that the Lt. Governor is saying this, what does the Governor say?



Exactly - the Lt. Gov. has always been more reasonable about reopening IMHO. The Gov. is a different story. . . .


----------



## slip

Tamaradarann said:


> OK, do you agree that back in June and July there were the very low case rates in Hawaii, much lower than 150/day.  In June there was talk of opening Hawaii to Trans-Pacific Visitors but the Governor extended the 14 Quarantine over and over again.  Now the cases are much higher than in June and July, so what is so great about coming down to less than 150 cases/day make him open Hawaii to visitors?



One thing the Governor was doing at that time was watching Alaska’s policy. They were using testing and he was watching the results there. He also was working on the testing plan for Hawaii. He said that was causing delays and then the cases started to increase. So now we are assuming they have everything they need in place for that plan but we haven’t been given any updates about it.

We’ll see shortly but just going off past history, I think it will be pushed back to November 1st. We’ll see.


----------



## jabberwocky

Tamaradarann said:


> OK, do you agree that back in June and July there were the very low case rates in Hawaii, much lower than 150/day.  In June there was talk of opening Hawaii to Trans-Pacific Visitors but the Governor extended the 14 Quarantine over and over again.  Now the cases are much higher than in June and July, so what is so great about coming down to less than 150 cases/day make him open Hawaii to visitors?


150 is just an arbitrary number, but it does give them something to point to. A more nuanced approach would be to also look at things like hospital capacity. I think the biggest difference between now and June/July is that the $600/week unemployment benefit wasn’t extended. Reality is starting to sink in of how decimated the tourism industry is, and the impact it will have on ordinary people.


----------



## Tamaradarann

jabberwocky said:


> 150 is just an arbitrary number, but it does give them something to point to. A more nuanced approach would be to also look at things like hospital capacity. I think the biggest difference between now and June/July is that the $600/week unemployment benefit wasn’t extended. Reality is starting to sink in of how decimated the tourism industry is, and the impact it will have on ordinary people.



I can agree with what you are saying.  I believe there are basically two camps that are pushing and pulling the Governor.  One that wants to keep Hawaii closed as much as possible to tourists to prevent them from bringing infection into Hawaii.  That group has gotten what they wanted up till now, the other wants Hawaii to open up so that the tourist industry can start to come back to normal and the economy thrive again.  From an objective perspective I can understand both sides point of view.

From a personal perspective we had originally planned to return to Hawaii this month.  Therefore, we wanted Hawaii to open up with pre-flight testing back in June so that the negative impact as well as the economic rebound of the return of large amounts of tourists would have the opportunity to fully develop before our trip.  When that didn't happen we moved our plans back to November.  As the 14 day quarantine got moved back again and again we gave up on on a 2020 return and will focus on a 2021 return.  (By the way it is interesting the the Hilton Hawaiian Village where we stay most of the time kept moving back its opening dates in small increments from late May to mid June to early July to August to September, to October.  However now they have also moved back all the way back to the middle of December which is the start of the Christmas Season and the HGVC Timeshare Premium Event Weeks 51 & 52.


----------



## JanT

Mods, feel free to move this to the Hawaii Covid-19 discussion thread but I was trying to avoid this question getting lost in the on-going discussion about cases, etc. 

I can't help but wonder if when Hawaii does open back up to trans-pacific travel without a 14 day quarantine or if they have the ability to do rapid testing upon arrival, will people actually go?  With concerns about getting on airplanes and Covid-19 in general I'm not sure people will chance it.  Of course, there are those that are traveling without much or any concern of contracting/spreading the virus (no judgment - just stating a fact) so I'm sure they will go.  But, what will the abundance of the general population do?  Just tossing this out there for TUGGER opinions.  PLEASE don't turn this into a thread about rising case numbers, government bashing, arguing over someone's opinion, etc.  I would just like TUGGER opinions on whether they think people will actually travel there once it's opened back up with few restrictions.


----------



## controller1

JanT said:


> Mods, feel free to move this to the Hawaii Covid-19 discussion thread but I was trying to avoid this question getting lost in the on-going discussion about cases, etc.
> 
> I can't help but wonder if when Hawaii does open back up to trans-continental travel without a 14 day quarantine or if they have the ability to do rapid testing upon arrival, will people actually go?  With concerns about getting on airplanes and Covid-19 in general I'm not sure people will chance it.  Of course, there are those that are traveling without much or any concern of contracting/spreading the virus (no judgment - just stating a fact) so I'm sure they will go.  But, what will the abundance of the general population do?  Just tossing this out there for TUGGER opinions.  PLEASE don't turn this into a thread about rising case numbers, government bashing, arguing over someone's opinion, etc.  I would just like TUGGER opinions on whether they think people will actually travel there once it's opened back up with few restrictions.



Two things about Hawaii opening up trans-Pacific travel and they are both going against your assumptions. 1) I don't see for the next six to nine months Hawaii completely eliminating the 14-day quarantine and 2) Hawaii has insisted they do not wish to do testing upon arrival but want the testing to be done prior to the flight to Hawaii. To do testing upon arrival will logjam the airport and I'm not sure very many people will pay the cost to fly to Hawaii and risk not being able to enjoy themselves without knowing prior to the flight they won't need to quarantine.


----------



## CalGalTraveler

I hope it opens up. We have a reservation for BI/Maui in June/July 2021. I am starting to get cabin fever and may travel somewhere soon.


----------



## Luanne

I can only speak for myself and my dh.  We will feel more comfortable traveling when there is a vaccine.  Currently we have one week booked on Maui for March 2022.  If we still don't feel comfortable by that point we will cancel.


----------



## Luanne

CalGalTraveler said:


> I hope it opens up. We have a reservation for BI/Maui in June/July 2020. I am starting to get cabin fever and may travel somewhere soon.


I hope you meant June/July *2021.*


----------



## CalGalTraveler

Luanne said:


> I hope you meant June/July *2021.*



Oops good catch! Corrected post. Must have been wishful thinking.


----------



## LannyPC

JanT said:


> I would just like TUGGER opinions on whether they think people will actually travel there once it's opened back up with few restrictions.



Well, for my NSHO, I will not travel anywhere unless/until there are *no* restrictions. Not just few --- zero!


----------



## Sugarcubesea

I don’t think Hawaii will be open till summer of 2021 without a 14 day quarantine. I’m hoping to go in 2022


----------



## Luanne

Sugarcubesea said:


> I don’t think Hawaii will be open till summer of 2021 without a 14 day quarantine.


One reason we decided to skip our annual trip to Maui for March 2021.  Well that, and the whole vaccine thing.


----------



## linsj

Once the quarantine is lifted, I'll be making reservations for the first two weeks I can get away. Thankfully, my schedule is flexible. I've already canceled one booking and changed another to a different location this year.


----------



## DeniseM

There has been some infighting within this department - hopefully, they have it straightened out now:








						Emily Roberson, Hawaii’s new head of contact tracing, moves quickly to revamp the program
					

Hawaii is at a critical crossroads in reining in the coronavirus that has killed nearly 100 and sickened more than 10,500 statewide, wreaking havoc on the economy and leaving thousands of residents jobless.




					www.staradvertiser.com


----------



## DeniseM

There is pent up demand for travel to Hawaii - there are lots of people who want to go as soon as the quarantine is lifted.

•I'm going to leave this as a stand-alone thread until tomorrow, and then link it to the primary C19 thread.


----------



## klpca

I'm one who is obviously trying to go. My thinking is this - I'm a bit reassured by the thought that everyone on the plane going to Hawaii has been tested. You cannot say the same about flights to other places. Also we are not indoorsy people, not before covid and definitely not now, so we won't be eating inside of any restaurants while we travel. We will eat inside of our unit or maybe on the lanai. We are also not pool people - if it's open we will be on the beach or, more likely, in the water. I realize that it's a gamble but so is the grocery store at this point. I wear my mask everywhere, including on my walks and have always been a consistent hand washer so I feel like I've given myself the best chance.  

Everyone is different and everyone has different circumstances so you will find no judgement from me. I'm probably less bothered by it because except for a the first month I've been at my office a lot (almost the same as pre-covid) and my daughter who works retail has as well. I even eat at outdoor restaurants. We wear our masks religiously and, knock on wood, so far so good.


----------



## jabberwocky

I've canceled our March 2021 booking and have rebooked into August for Maui next year. There is just too much risk to outlay thousands of dollars for airfare with a family of 6.  

If the pre-test requirements aren't relaxed, by next summer, we'll probably look elsewhere and/or bank our SO until 2023 - as much as I hate to give up home resort reservations. Locally where we live tests are currently taking 7-8 days to get results back since everyone and their dog are eligible for asymptomatic tests.  If Hawaii allowed the rapid COVID tests or did testing on arrival that would be fine with us.

In the meantime, California and Mexico will be getting our tourist dollars with our next two timeshare stays (December and March).


----------



## geist1223

We would be there in a heart beat if they opened Hawaii without a quarantine. Not worried at all about being on an airplane with their HEPA Filters and circulation pattern.


----------



## klpca

I will say this, based upon a recent stay in Tahoe and a few overnight stays here in SD: be prepared to see people who are on a vacation to also take a vacation from their masks. It has been absolutely consistent. You are fine once you are off of the beaten path but Orange Ave on Coronado, the Mission Beach boardwalk, and Heavenly Village - all areas had a large number of maskless people.  And of course no enforcement so it is what it is. But once you get out of the congested areas you will see most people wearing masks. So if you are traveling and wish to avoid that situation you are going to have to find other things to do.


----------



## slip

I think people will come but at a much lower number. Some people on the west coast visit a few times a year and their return will depend on their first experience when they return.

I think the travel to Hawaii will be down enough that more businesses will be closing permanently. This will be a long recovery.


----------



## Blues

b2bailey said:


> On the slight possibility that Oct 1 will be allowing entry with proof of negative test, I have started to look at possible testing sites in the Santa Cruz/San Jose vicinity because that's where I will be prior to flight departure.
> 
> So far, no success. Now I am imagining Maui open for inbound, but me not able to get tested. What to do?







__





						ARCpoint Labs of Monterey Bay
					

ARCpoint Labs of Monterey Bay is proud to be one of the first locations in the nation to offer antibody testing for previous exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. ARCpoint Labs of Monterey Bay is a local laboratory with nationally recognized accreditation and expertise. We provide high quality, confiden




					www.labtestmonterey.com
				




They're at Ryan Ranch, near Monterey airport.  I've used them to get an antibody test earlier in the year, but they also have PCR and rapid tests.


----------



## csodjd

jabberwocky said:


> 150 is just an arbitrary number, but it does give them something to point to. A more nuanced approach would be to also look at things like hospital capacity. I think the biggest difference between now and June/July is that the $600/week unemployment benefit wasn’t extended. Reality is starting to sink in of how decimated the tourism industry is, and the impact it will have on ordinary people.


It may not be as arbitrary as it may seem. There is good data now for predicting what percentage of infected individuals will require hospital care and/or ICU care. That allows pretty straight forward extrapolation out to capacities, both hospital/ICU and tracing for containment.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> OK, do you agree that back in June and July there were the very low case rates in Hawaii, much lower than 150/day.  In June there was talk of opening Hawaii to Trans-Pacific Visitors but the Governor extended the 14 Quarantine over and over again.  Now the cases are much higher than in June and July, so what is so great about coming down to less than 150 cases/day make him open Hawaii to visitors?


Absolutely. That's objective data. Nothing to disagree about. But not terribly relevant in the larger scheme of things. Much more is known today about transmission, treatment, hospitalization rates, risk factors, etc. Testing capacity and reliability is very different today than it was in June/July. And the sense of urgency is different in light of the CARES Act and stimulus money then, versus none now. It's just apples to oranges, and looking backward is not productive in terms of solving the issues and challenges. It may be helpful someday to know what to do differently the next time, but for now, it's about what we know TODAY.


----------



## csodjd

b2bailey said:


> I've held onto my hope for a 70th Birthday trip to Maui in mid October. Made a few changes so I can quarantine 14 days at Marriott Kaanapali, if need be. Being retired, my time is cheap.
> 
> On the slight possibility that Oct 1 will be allowing entry with proof of negative test, I have started to look at possible testing sites in the Santa Cruz/San Jose vicinity because that's where I will be prior to flight departure.
> 
> So far, no success. Now I am imagining Maui open for inbound, but me not able to get tested. What to do?


Look into Urgent Care centers. That's where we have gotten tests done a couple of times here outside of Los Angeles.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> However now they have also moved back all the way back to the middle of December which is the start of the Christmas Season and the HGVC Timeshare Premium Event Weeks 51 & 52.


It's not clear that they have committed to moving back to at least that time, though it is true you cannot now book sooner. But, as you know, I just recently did book in Oct/Nov, and I've not received any notice from HGVC or anyone else advising that the hotel would be closed and our reservation is canceled. Thus, there is certainly some ambiguity or uncertainty. They aren't taking new reservations, but also aren't cancelling existing ones.


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## csodjd

amy241 said:


> Exactly - the Lt. Gov. has always been more reasonable about reopening IMHO. The Gov. is a different story. . . .


Can't help but wonder if his attitude will change now that he's infected and in quarantine.


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## Fredward

One more issue for consideration.  For those of us that have had to cancel reservations for 2020, we have a huge amount of airline credits for our family of 9.  We had plans to fly from the west coast on Hawaiian and Alaskan airlines, which don't serve our east coast airports.  If we can't go to Hawaii, where do we go?


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## geoand

We traveled to Hawaii yearly since 1990’s. Canceled our March 2020 trip & don’t see us going there in 2021


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## TheHolleys87

We have our 2 deeded weeks reserved for 2021 December, and I’m holding on to them planning to use one to replace the July 2020 trip we had to cancel.


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## bnoble

We have three weeks planned in late December /early January 2021. If it is possible to avoid a quarantine with a negative test I think we would be willing to fly based on what we know now in terms of risks (flight transmission seems relatively rare from what I can tell) particularly given the airlines’ insistence on mask compliance these days.


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## csodjd

I flew a few weeks back from Los Angeles to Charlotte, then drove to Pinehurst, then back. My experience was this: the ONLY part of the trip that in my view was of any concern was getting from the parking lot to the terminal. In my case it was an empty van, just me and two other people. But I've heard of other times where that bus/van was moderately filled. Its small and "indoors" (though with masks). Beyond that, the airport was very quiet, TSA was pretty much empty, the Admirals club was quite empty, I had no concern at all of risk. (Lesson: have someone drop you off at the airport.) I was in First on the flight and never felt any particular risk there. There were, after all, only 1-2 people even border close to me, so hardly a crowd. And everyone wore a mask. 

So all of that is to say, I don't see the trip to/from Hawaii as being particularly concerning, especially with everyone having just tested negative (which was not the case above). 

Once one arrives in Hawaii, you can pretty much control and eliminate your risk yourself. 

That said, I would not expect more than 10-20% of normal travel volume, at least not for the first 6 months after it opens. This group here is not a normal cross-section of travelers. We are a group that is particularly interested and tuned into Hawaii that have spent good money to buy a TS in Hawaii, etc. Of my group of friends with TS's in Hawaii, I'm the only one planning (hoping) to go any time soon.


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## csodjd

114 new cases reported today bringing the 7-day moving average down to 121.7 (106.7 in Honolulu). Infection rate down slightly to 2.3%. As long as it keep moving in this direction....


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> It's not clear that they have committed to moving back to at least that time, though it is true you cannot now book sooner. But, as you know, I just recently did book in Oct/Nov, and I've not received any notice from HGVC or anyone else advising that the hotel would be closed and our reservation is canceled. Thus, there is certainly some ambiguity or uncertainty. They aren't taking new reservations, but also aren't cancelling existing ones.



I checked and the 5 Hotel buildings are also not taking reservations.  I know you know how big the Hilton Hawaiian Village is and, therefore, how costly and manpower intenstive the operation is to operate.  Do you really think that they not taking reservations right now for any of the 8 buildings and they are going to open the campus for you and the few people that may have reservations right now?


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I checked and the 5 Hotel buildings are also not taking reservations.  I know you know how big the Hilton Hawaiian Village is and, therefore, how costly and manpower intenstive the operation is to operate.  Do you really think that they not taking reservations right now for any of the 8 buildings and they are going to open the campus for you and the few people that may have reservations right now?


All I know is that on Sept. 4 they were taking reservations and they have not canceled the one I made. I suspect, like many others, they are waiting a few more days to make a final decision based on what the Governor decides this week.


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## frank808

I have a place holder using the free reservation for this year with check in on Nov 28 at Lagoon. HGVC haven't cancelled it yet either. 

Sent from my SM-T377P using Tapatalk


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## canesfan

We have a trip scheduled for the end of February. Crossing our fingers quarantine will be lifted. Definitely going is it’s just a Covid test.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## DaveNV

We'd go.  We have reservations on three islands for next May.  I hope we don't have to cancel.

Dave


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## amycurl

Are local public county health departments not doing regular, free testing in CA? That seems so odd to me. Here, you can go onto the county health dept.'s website, find all of the free testing that they're offering (some during the day, some in the evening, six days a week,) plus all of the OTHER free testing sites available in the county (offered by the local hospital system; nonprofit health clinic; CVS; etc) and you can search by date.

Last week, on Tuesday morning, we learned that we would have the opportunity to host my in-laws last night (who have not seen ANY of their grandchildren in 9 months.) Went on the website, found information for a drive-thru, no appointment, no pre-registration free testing site for Wednesday morning (that would also test kids under 18) that was less than 10 minutes from our house. We arrived just minutes before they opened at 8 am on Wednesday, and there were five cars in front of us. Stayed in our car the whole time, regular nasal swab (no brain swab.) Arrived back home before 8:30 am in time for school and work commitments. It was a LabCorp test, and we had the results in our patient portal in less than 36 hours. The local hospital system hosted it; I am sure that they probably charged our insurance, but it would have been free if we didn't have insurance. Both times we have been tested, we were easily able to find sites on our local health department's website.

Easily available testing for any one who wants it, with 24-48 hour turnaround time, and robust contact tracing--in addition to masking, avoiding crowds, and people indoors--is what it will take for us to be able to live full lives in the "new reality" in lieu of a vaccine any time soon.


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## TravelTime

We have a reservation to go to Kauai next summer. As long as there is no quarantine and planes are flying, we will go.


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## controller1

canesfan said:


> We have a trip scheduled for the end of February. Crossing our fingers quarantine will be lifted. Definitely going is it’s just a Covid test.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



We also have two weeks scheduled beginning Feb 27th. Keeping our fingers crossed.


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## alwysonvac

Here’s the 3rd Quarter forecast from Hawaii’s Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (link)

_Hawaii will welcome 2.9 million visitors in 2020, a decrease of 71.9 percent from the 2019 level. 
Visitor arrivals will increase to 7.2 million in 2021, 8.3 million in 2022, and 9.4 million in 2023. 
Visitor spending will decrease 67.8 percent in 2020, then will increase 109.1 percent in 2021, 18.8 percent in 2022, and 14.7 percent in 2023._


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## alwysonvac

We’re planning to visit Hawaii next year.


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## csodjd

amycurl said:


> Are local public county health departments not doing regular, free testing in CA? That seems so odd to me. Here, you can go onto the county health dept.'s website, find all of the free testing that they're offering (some during the day, some in the evening, six days a week,) plus all of the OTHER free testing sites available in the county (offered by the local hospital system; nonprofit health clinic; CVS; etc) and you can search by date.
> 
> Last week, on Tuesday morning, we learned that we would have the opportunity to host my in-laws last night (who have not seen ANY of their grandchildren in 9 months.) Went on the website, found information for a drive-thru, no appointment, no pre-registration free testing site for Wednesday morning (that would also test kids under 18) that was less than 10 minutes from our house. We arrived just minutes before they opened at 8 am on Wednesday, and there were five cars in front of us. Stayed in our car the whole time, regular nasal swab (no brain swab.) Arrived back home before 8:30 am in time for school and work commitments. It was a LabCorp test, and we had the results in our patient portal in less than 36 hours. The local hospital system hosted it; I am sure that they probably charged our insurance, but it would have been free if we didn't have insurance. Both times we have been tested, we were easily able to find sites on our local health department's website.
> 
> Easily available testing for any one who wants it, with 24-48 hour turnaround time, and robust contact tracing--in addition to masking, avoiding crowds, and people indoors--is what it will take for us to be able to live full lives in the "new reality" in lieu of a vaccine any time soon.


They do. There's no free county health dept test site close to me so I've gone to a local urgent care. I went with checkbook in hand -- they said it was $150 -- but they said no, they'll bill my insurance. They ended up getting about $120 from my insurance. Questionable business plan.


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## Kapolei

This morning.


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## pspercy

Planning for Maui, October 2021, our usual EOY


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## frank808

Sunset tonight from Marriott Koolina.
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


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## b2bailey

Blues said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ARCpoint Labs of Monterey Bay
> 
> 
> ARCpoint Labs of Monterey Bay is proud to be one of the first locations in the nation to offer antibody testing for previous exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. ARCpoint Labs of Monterey Bay is a local laboratory with nationally recognized accreditation and expertise. We provide high quality, confiden
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.labtestmonterey.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They're at Ryan Ranch, near Monterey airport.  I've used them to get an antibody test earlier in the year, but they also have PCR and rapid tests.


Thank you. I was hoping for a place that would accept medical insuranve, but at least I now know there is a place nearby with open appts.


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## b2bailey

csodjd said:


> Look into Urgent Care centers. That's where we have gotten tests done a couple of times here outside of Los Angeles.


Yes, this, plus CVS are shown to do testing, but no appts available.


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## 10spro

b2bailey said:


> I've held onto my hope for a 70th Birthday trip to Maui in mid October. Made a few changes so I can quarantine 14 days at Marriott Kaanapali, if need be. Being retired, my time is cheap.
> 
> On the slight possibility that Oct 1 will be allowing entry with proof of negative test, I have started to look at possible testing sites in the Santa Cruz/San Jose vicinity because that's where I will be prior to flight departure.
> 
> So far, no success. Now I am imagining Maui open for inbound, but me not able to get tested. What to do?


I have had good success with Quest Labs in San Jose. Lots of available appointment times.


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## b2bailey

csodjd said:


> They do. There's no free county health dept test site close to me so I've gone to a local urgent care. I went with checkbook in hand -- they said it was $150 -- but they said no, they'll bill my insurance. They ended up getting about $120 from my insurance. Questionable business plan.


I'm currently in Santa Cruz County and have not found a county site as you describe. Until recently I was in Riverside County (near Palm Springs) and was aware testing was easily available to all. That's why I was surprised by the difficulty of finding a site to use in 3 weeks, when I may need it to travel. So, it seems testing is controlled/offered on a county level. I am willing to go north to Santa Clara County but haven't found a readily accessible location that can provide results in less than a week. (For those who aren't aware, much of Silicon Valley is located in Santa Clara County.)


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## b2bailey

10spro said:


> I have had good success with Quest Labs in San Jose. Lots of available appointment times.


I'm familiar with Quest, but their website said results take 7-10 days. I'll look again. Thanks.


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## b2bailey

10spro said:


> I have had good success with Quest Labs in San Jose. Lots of available appointment times.


Just looked again, and it is one week for results. Won't work for travel.


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## Tamaradarann

pspercy said:


> Planning for Maui, October 2021, our usual EOY



We had originally planned on going next week to Honolulu and staying the winter.  With the Pandemic we feel safer at home on Long Island this year.  We are looking forward to returning to Honolulu next fall.


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## hurnik

b2bailey said:


> Just looked again, and it is one week for results. Won't work for travel.



You can try this site:








						Find PCR, Antigen & Antibody test near me for Travel
					

Need a negative covid-19 test for Travel? Find a Rapid, PCR, Antigen or Antibody Testing Location near you with results in 72 hours or less




					rapidtesttravel.com
				




(This was from TPG website)
Note that the info is self-reported.  So if you find a site listed and they do NOT do PCR testing, you can report that to the site directly and they'll remove the listing.


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## yeereid

Even if I have to take a test prior to arrival, I will still plan on keeping my April 2021 reservation. As long as I do not need to quarantine!


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## Moparman42

I still have a family trip planned for January 2021.  truly hoping the testing infrastructure is in place by then.   If not I have to cancel by November 10th to not have restricted points through vistana.  It took a lot of effort to get this trip together, so I will be disappointed.   Luckily, I was last there January 2020 before Covid really hit, so my memories are still fresh-ish.   I will not hesitate to return, but I get the feeling flights will be less direct and harder to book, less restaurants and things to do.    Hoping the virus dies down to reduce the necessity for masks as well.    basically, hoping for the best but planning for the worst.   I will return, it's just a matter of when we will be allowed to.  ALOHA


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## DeniseM

This is one of the major reasons why Hawaii has not been able to implement an entry process for visitors.  50% of Hawaii vacationers come from California, and CA does not have readily available quick-turn around testing.


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## rickandcindy23

We are going 2/15, and we will self-quarantine for 14 days and then we will be free to do as we want the last 3 weeks and 5 days of our trip.  If there is a place I can self-quarantine, it's our Hono Koa oceanfront unit.


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## b2bailey

Appears to be exactly what I'm looking for. However, my search for sites in CA came back with a list of random, unsorted country-wide results. Can someone else give it a try?


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## PearlCity

frank808 said:


> Sunset tonight from Marriott Koolina.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


Beautiful! Are beaches still closed or can one person sit on the beach now?

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk


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## frank808

You can sit at the beach now as long you are separated by 6 feet. Does not matter if you arrive in the same vehicle. If you want to sit at beach you have to be 6ft apart. 

Lots of 2br available with AC for $300 a week at MKO. I am tempted to just cancel my booked weeks and lose the $154 and uptrade fees. Then use AC`s for Oct and Nov. weeks cancelled at MKO. 

Sent from my SM-T377P using Tapatalk


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## 1Kflyerguy

We are planning to visit next year for sure.  Currently we have two units booked at Kings Land on the Big Island for May.  It would be great if the restrictions were gone by then, but we will adapt.  I don't have any objections with a pre-travel covide test.  Both my wife and i have already been tested, me due to illness, and my wife gets tested monthly for work.


----------



## csodjd

frank808 said:


> You can sit at the beach now as long you are separated by 6 feet. Does not matter if you arrive in the same vehicle. If you want to sit at beach you have to be 6ft apart.


They do some curious things in Hawaii, but that may rank among the most curious of all. Okay to share a bed and a car, just don't sit close at the beach.


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## DeniseM

Makes perfect sense: It would be time consuming for authorities to walk down the beach and check the addresses of each group to see if they should be sitting together or not, but it's very easy to quickly look across a beach and see if everyone is 6 feet apart.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> Makes perfect sense: It would be time consuming for authorities to walk down the beach and check the addresses of each group to see if they should be sitting together or not, but it's very easy to quickly look across a beach and see if everyone is 6 feet apart.


If that's the case they should also prohibit being in your car with another person or walking, or being, anywhere, within six feet of another person.


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## DeniseM

Remember that one of the issues that they have had is large spreader events at beach parties, so that is the behavior that they are targeting.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> This is one of the major reasons why Hawaii has not been able to implement an entry process for visitors.  50% of Hawaii vacationers come from California, and CA does not have readily available quick-turn around testing.


That is perhaps at least party correct, however, I'm not sure Hawaii should "punish" itself for that reason or even concern itself with that. That's an issue or burden for the traveler to deal with. (On an aside, my wife, me, and my daughter twice, have all received test results in 2 days or less in the past 30 days.) If they/you/me can't get the test result in time, so be it. That's our problem to deal with. But if they/we can, why would Hawaii say no, you can't come and help start revitalizing our economy anyway because someone else in your state could not get their test result in time?


----------



## DeniseM

Hawaii has been trying to contract with a company to provide the tests, so that verified test results can be sent directly to Hawaii.  They originally tried to contract with CVS, but like the the rest of California, CVS couldn't acquire enough tests. They are trying to avoid a piecemeal approach,  because it's difficult and time consuming to verify dozens of different forms of test results printed on papers clutched in visitors' grubby hands, which may or may not be authentic.


----------



## Tamaradarann

DeniseM said:


> Remember that one of the issues that they have had is large spreader events at beach parties, so that is the behavior that they are targeting.


By prohibiting more than 2 people sitting within 6 feet of each other would certainly target that also and allow for couples to sit and enjoy the beach together.


----------



## Pathways

DeniseM said:


> Hawaii has been trying to contract with a company to provide the tests, so that verified test results can be sent directly to Hawaii.  They originally tried to contract with CVS, but like the the rest of California, CVS couldn't acquire enough tests. They are trying to avoid a piecemeal approach,  because it's difficult and time consuming to verify dozens of different forms of test results printed on papers clutched in visitors' grubby hands, which may or may not be authentic.



Why does HI need to reinvent the wheel?  Aruba has it down.  All the test data has to be loaded electronically before arrival.  The numbers are clearly lower, but the process is the same.  The test must be taken 72 hours before the flight *departs *for Aruba.

The arrival numbers would be fairly low at first anyway, which would allow them to work out any kinks and ramp up.


----------



## csodjd

DeniseM said:


> Hawaii has been trying to contract with a company to provide the tests, so that verified test results can be sent directly to Hawaii.  They originally tried to contract with CVS, but like the the rest of California, CVS couldn't acquire enough tests. They are trying to avoid a piecemeal approach,  because it's difficult and time consuming to verify dozens of different forms of test results printed on papers clutched in visitors' grubby hands, which may or may not be authentic.


And that makes total sense. However, it may also be a bar they can't get over. Again, just my opinion, but if they can get tourists in there safely they probably need to start doing it, even if it's not optimum convenience. I can certainly imagine a feasible but less sophisticated system where tourists go onto a website, fill out their demographic info, upload their test results, and that's then available for authorities upon arrival.


----------



## JIMinNC

DeniseM said:


> Remember that one of the issues that they have had is large spreader events at beach parties, so that is the behavior that they are targeting.



But the people who flaunt social distancing guidelines at beach parties are likely just going to move those parties to private property or indoors, places that are just as likely, or more likely, to spread infections.

I watched two televised college football games on Saturday - one without fans and one with a stadium at about 25-30% capacity. The crowd shots of the game that allowed fans showed most people reasonably separated into smallish family/friend groups separated by several empty seats or rows. It did appear that in some of the student sections, however, the kids were not really social distancing and mask use was very mixed. But the most revealing "crowd shots" were from the game without fans - ESPN broadcast social media live streams from fans watching the game from their homes, apartments, or dormitories. These shots showed big groups of people inside drinking and partying with absolutely no mask use. I couldn't help but think the people attending the game with fans in an outdoor stadium were at much lower risk for spreading all kinds of infections than those folks at game parties in their homes. People are going to do what people are going to do, and you can't usually regulate bad choices.

I think the anti-beach rules that have been propagated around the world since spring are some of the least productive anti-virus measures. I'm just thankful our beach condo is in S.C. where the beach restrictions have been less strict. We've been able to spend many wonderful days on the beach this summer and are looking forward to more this fall.


----------



## DeniseM

[Redacted by DeniseM]


----------



## csodjd

JIMinNC said:


> But the people who flaunt social distancing guidelines at beach parties are likely just going to move those parties to private property or indoors, places that are just as likely, or more likely, to spread infections.
> 
> I watched two televised college football games on Saturday - one without fans and one with a stadium at about 25-30% capacity. The crowd shots of the game that allowed fans showed most people reasonably separated into smallish family/friend groups separated by several empty seats or rows. It did appear that in some of the student sections, however, the kids were not really social distancing and mask use was very mixed. But the most revealing "crowd shots" were from the game without fans - ESPN broadcast social media live streams from fans watching the game from their homes, apartments, or dormitories. These shots showed big groups of people inside drinking and partying with absolutely no mask use. I couldn't help but think the people attending the game with fans in an outdoor stadium were at much lower risk for spreading all kinds of infections than those folks at game parties in their homes. People are going to do what people are going to do, and you can't usually regulate bad choices.
> 
> I think the anti-beach rules that have been propagated around the world since spring are some of the least productive ant-virus measures. I'm just thankful our beach condo is in S.C. where the beach restrictions have been less strict. We've been able to spend many wonderful days on the beach this summer and are looking forward to more this fall.


Here in California we can't play golf in a fivesome. Four is okay. Five, too many. We can ride four, five, even six people together in a car for an hour to the course, but not five people in a group ON the course. There are plenty of rules that one can question. Bottom line is, if people would just CARE about not getting others sick we'd all be a lot better place right now.


----------



## JIMinNC

[Redacted at Jim's request.]


----------



## DeniseM

[After a meeting of the minds with Jim, we agreed to both edit our posts to get this thread back on track.]


----------



## csodjd

Just reported, 80 new cases on Monday, 70 on Oahu. That follows 114 yesterday, preceded by 131 and 167 and 169. There's no denying the "shut down" is having an impact.


----------



## JIMinNC

Addressing the original question - Will people actually go when they can? - I think the answer is clearly yes. Many of the Caribbean islands are open right now with a testing entry requirement, and if you follow airline news like I do, you will notice that airlines are adding flights to the Caribbean and Mexico. The Jet Blue CEO was on CNBC today and he said demand to the Caribbean is recovering rapidly as the islands open, so they are adjusting their flights to meet the demand. He praised Jamaica and Aruba specifically for their testing regimen. Jet Blue just announced a bunch of new Caribbean and Mexico flights from multiple cities and American is adding to their Mexico schedules. I was just looking the other day at the American schedules for their big hub here in Charlotte, and it looks like they are running almost all of their pre-Covid flight schedules to the Caribbean islands that are open, and to Mexico. In a few cases it seems they are actually running more flights from CLT to some of these places than pre-Covid, and they are adding flights to Puerto Vallarta from CLT to add to their Los Cabos and Cancun flights.

So, I think once Hawaii decides they are willing to open to tourism, I think tourists will come, if the Caribbean experience is any indication.

Slightly off topic but related...as bad as the travel industry has been hit by this, I was surprised to read that for October, American Airlines will be operating almost 500 daily departures out of their CLT hub on peak days. While down from their 700 daily flights in February, operating roughly 70% of their pre-Covid flight numbers isn't too shabby.


----------



## magmue

An excellent interactive overview article in the NY Times today on different strategies taken by various countries and states to prevent resurgences. They spend some time specifically comparing and contrasting Hawaii and Alaska's approaches.
I think NYT Covid coverage is still free to all?


----------



## csodjd

csodjd said:


> Just reported, 80 new cases on Monday, 70 on Oahu. That follows 114 yesterday, preceded by 131 and 167 and 169. There's no denying the "shut down" is having an impact.


To follow up--- 

7-day moving average is now 118 cases (well below the 150 threshold the Lt. Gov. says they can handle). 7-day positive testing rate remains at a low 2.2%. 





Seems the Governor is now in a bit of a tough call situation. The data seems to clearly support allowing the Oct. 1 date to stand. However, the impact of Labor Day weekend won't be known for another 1-2 weeks. He probably needs to decide to open Oct 1, or extend to Nov 1, sooner than that. It's only 16 days away to Oct. 1.  Will there be a Labor Day spike? One would hope not given the orders that were in place, plus the testing that's been done this past week (which would catch and contain cases arsing from Labor Day). I'm guessing rates stay low and even drop a bit further. I'd also call it 50-50 whether, out of an "abundance of caution," he'll delay to Nov. 1.


----------



## csodjd

magmue said:


> An excellent interactive overview article in the NY Times today on different strategies taken by various countries and states to prevent resurgences. They spend some time specifically comparing and contrasting Hawaii and Alaska's approaches.
> I think NYT Covid coverage is still free to all?


Here are some quotes out of that article:

_But Hawaii did what Alaska did not: enforce its quarantine. On arrival, visitors had to identify their hotel, and the authorities called the hotel to make sure guests abided by the lockdown. Sometimes, the government called visitors or checked their social media. Hotel employees and Hawaii residents also alerted the authorities about violators. Nearly 200 people have been arrested for breaking quarantine. Unfortunately, this system was much weaker than in places like Taiwan or South Korea, and eventually enough cases entered Oahu to spur an outbreak in August. ... That could be because, in the end, only an estimated 40 percent of Hawaii’s visitors fully respected the state’s measures for their two full weeks of quarantine, based on analysis of anonymized cell phone records of travelers provided by Cuebiq. Hawaii’s quarantine is not airtight. 

In the United States, such a system could be simple: All people traveling to a state requiring a quarantine would fill out a form before coming in, detailing their travel plans, their quarantine location over the next two weeks, and how to contact them to confirm they are complying. The policy would be enforced through random checks and fines, or through an app visitors would be required to place on their phones to track their whereabouts. (This of course raises privacy concerns.) They could shorten the quarantine with negative P.C.R. tests, ideally at the time of entry and four days after. Measures could be adapted to the type of visitor and the situation at their place of origin._


----------



## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> To follow up---
> 
> 7-day moving average is now 118 cases (well below the 150 threshold the Lt. Gov. says they can handle). 7-day positive testing rate remains at a low 2.2%.
> 
> View attachment 26562
> 
> Seems the Governor is now in a bit of a tough call situation. The data seems to clearly support allowing the Oct. 1 date to stand. However, the impact of Labor Day weekend won't be known for another 1-2 weeks. He probably needs to decide to open Oct 1, or extend to Nov 1, sooner than that. It's only 16 days away to Oct. 1.  Will there be a Labor Day spike? One would hope not given the orders that were in place, plus the testing that's been done this past week (which would catch and contain cases arsing from Labor Day). I'm guessing rates stay low and even drop a bit further. I'd also call it 50-50 whether, out of an "abundance of caution," he'll delay to Nov. 1.


Out of an abundance of caution he did not open in July  when they had 30 cases a day.

For the sake of the argument let's say they open in November. Is there any guarantee they will not close again few weeks later?


----------



## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> Here are some quotes out of that article:
> 
> _But Hawaii did what Alaska did not: enforce its quarantine. On arrival, visitors had to identify their hotel, and the authorities called the hotel to make sure guests abided by the lockdown. Sometimes, the government called visitors or checked their social media. Hotel employees and Hawaii residents also alerted the authorities about violators. Nearly 200 people have been arrested for breaking quarantine. Unfortunately, this system was much weaker than in places like Taiwan or South Korea, and eventually enough cases entered Oahu to spur an outbreak in August. ... That could be because, in the end, only an estimated 40 percent of Hawaii’s visitors fully respected the state’s measures for their two full weeks of quarantine, based on analysis of anonymized cell phone records of travelers provided by Cuebiq. Hawaii’s quarantine is not airtight.
> 
> In the United States, such a system could be simple: All people traveling to a state requiring a quarantine would fill out a form before coming in, detailing their travel plans, their quarantine location over the next two weeks, and how to contact them to confirm they are complying. The policy would be enforced through random checks and fines, or through an app visitors would be required to place on their phones to track their whereabouts. (This of course raises privacy concerns.) They could shorten the quarantine with negative P.C.R. tests, ideally at the time of entry and four days after. Measures could be adapted to the type of visitor and the situation at their place of origin._


If the cell phone records are anonymized, how do they know they belong to travelers?


----------



## Tamaradarann

DannyTS said:


> Out of an abundance of caution he did not open in July  when they had 30 cases a day.
> 
> For the sake of the argument let's say they open in November. Is there any guarantee they will not close again few weeks later?



NO!


----------



## dsmrp

DannyTS said:


> If the cell phone records are anonymized, how do they know they belong to travelers?


When we arrived at airport, they asked to see  our cell phones, and then called the numbers we listed on our forms.


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Here in California we can't play golf in a fivesome. Four is okay. Five, too many. We can ride four, five, even six people together in a car for an hour to the course, but not five people in a group ON the course. There are plenty of rules that one can question. Bottom line is, if people would just CARE about not getting others sick we'd all be a lot better place right now.



I agree with your point here but I must take exception to the Fivesome Example.  A Foursome has been the standard for golf parties for as long as I know which goes back to the early 60's and I would guess it has been the standard way before that.  It has nothing to do with the Coronavirus.  Furthermore, it is important not to have more than Four to keep the game moving and not hold up the party that just finished the previous hole who wants to Tee Off and not have to wait for 5 golfers playing in front of them.  On the courses that I have played starters will break up a Fivesome into a Threesome and a Twosome and place singles and doubles with these two groups.


----------



## DannyTS

dsmrp said:


> When we arrived at airport, they asked to see  our cell phones, and then called the numbers we listed on our forms.


Are you saying Hawaii has shared your information with Cuebiq?


----------



## csodjd

DannyTS said:


> Out of an abundance of caution he did not open in July  when they had 30 cases a day.
> 
> For the sake of the argument let's say they open in November. Is there any guarantee they will not close again few weeks later?


What do they say, the only guarantees are death and taxes....


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I agree with your point here but I must take exception to the Fivesome Example.  A Foursome has been the standard for golf parties for as long as I know which goes back to the early 60's and I would guess it has been the standard way before that.  It has nothing to do with the Coronavirus.  Furthermore, it is important not to have more than Four to keep the game moving and not hold up the party that just finished the previous hole who wants to Tee Off and not have to wait for 5 golfers playing in front of them.  On the courses that I have played starters will break up a Fivesome into a Threesome and a Twosome and place singles and doubles with these two groups.


Eh, that’s silly. We play six routinely (pre-COVID) and never exceed 3:45, often done in 3:30.


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## amycurl

...death, taxes....and dirty dishes in the sink, LOL.


----------



## tompalm

Gov. David Ige today said that he’s likely to delay for the third time the start of a pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism in Hawaii.

The testing program would allow travelers who have taken an approved COVID-19 test within 72 hours of traveling to Hawaii to bypass a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine for out-of state passengers that’s been in place since March 26.

The plan, which was first announced in June, was originally going to launch Aug. 1, then Ige pushed it back to Sept. 1 and then Oct. 1 at the earliest.

“Just talking with many in the industry, it will probably not be Oct. 1,” Ige said today during an interview with “Spotlight Hawaii,” the Star-Advertiser’s Facebook Live show. “But in the next few days we’ll be providing a better plan for the scheduling of what those dates would look like.”

Travel demand for Hawaii has fallen significantly amid COVID-19 fears and tourism lockdowns.


Only 22,562 visitors flew to Hawaii in July, which last year was Hawaii’s best tourism month. Tourism arrivals to Hawaii declined 98% in July and 65% through the first seven months of the year.

It was February when Hawaii tourism last saw any gains, and hardships are mounting as the tourism lockdown that started in March has headed into fall.

A mandatory 14-day quarantine remains in effect for out-of-state travelers to reduce the spread of COVID-19. A partial interisland quarantine also was reinstated on Aug. 11.

Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell, with Ige’s permission, recently extended a stay-at-home order, which began on Aug. 27 and is now slated to run through Sept. 23. The order is still strict, but parks, beaches and hiking trails have reopened to allow individuals to engage in solo activities, including reading, meditating, eating, jogging and sitting on the beach alone.


----------



## echino

Gov. Ige says pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism probably won’t begin Oct. 1









						Gov. Ige says pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism probably won’t begin Oct. 1
					

Gov. David Ige today said that he’s likely to delay for the third time the start of a pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism in Hawaii.




					www.staradvertiser.com
				




What's interesting is the locals' comments under the article. A few weeks ago I remember seeing comments overwhelmingly is support of Ige and for closing Hawaii to tourists. It looks like it's now the opposite.


----------



## jabberwocky

csodjd said:


> Can't help but wonder if his attitude will change now that he's infected and in quarantine.


He doesn’t seem to be doing too badly. Probably wouldn’t have known that he had it if his staff member hadn’t tested positive.










						Lt. Gov. Josh Green: 'I Don't Feel Differently At All'
					

The state's vocal COVID-19 medical liaison was diagnosed with COVID-19 on Friday. He's still doing his popular whiteboard video updates from his son's bedroom.




					www.civilbeat.org


----------



## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Eh, that’s silly. We play six routinely (pre-COVID) and never exceed 3:45, often done in 3:30.



You must play some short easy private courses riding carts where there was no party in front of you and all the players must be very good.  I am most familiar with the 5 Bethpage State Park Public Courses which cost $2 for 18 holes when I was young including the Black Course which has been used a few times for the US Open.  We always walked and in those days carried our OWN bag.  You could never even play those courses in under 4 hours with four players which is the maximum limit of a FOURSOME.  We would break 100 on these courses but breaking 90 for average players was a major goal and struggle.  Most times it was close to 6 hours.  Different life experiences bring people to differnent thoughts on how things are and how things should be on many issues.


----------



## Tamaradarann

echino said:


> Gov. Ige says pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism probably won’t begin Oct. 1
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gov. Ige says pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism probably won’t begin Oct. 1
> 
> 
> Gov. David Ige today said that he’s likely to delay for the third time the start of a pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism in Hawaii.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What's interesting is the locals' comments under the article. A few weeks ago I remember seeing comments overwhelmingly is support of Ige and for closing Hawaii to tourists. It looks like it's now the opposite.



It could be that the general sentiment has changed or it could be that different people are commenting who have a different perspective and interest in the issue.  When the Governor swings toward opening the comments tend to controvert and state keep the tourists out and Hawaii safe, when the Governore swings toward closing for another month the comments tend to controvert and state we need to open to get the economy going again.  I can see both sides.


----------



## amy241

DannyTS said:


> Out of an abundance of caution he did not open in July  when they had 30 cases a day.
> 
> For the sake of the argument let's say they open in November. Is there any guarantee they will not close again few weeks later?



There is no guarantee he will not close the state anytime he feels the need.


----------



## DannyTS

echino said:


> Gov. Ige says pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism probably won’t begin Oct. 1
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gov. Ige says pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism probably won’t begin Oct. 1
> 
> 
> Gov. David Ige today said that he’s likely to delay for the third time the start of a pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism in Hawaii.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.staradvertiser.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What's interesting is the locals' comments under the article. A few weeks ago I remember seeing comments overwhelmingly is support of Ige and for closing Hawaii to tourists. It looks like it's now the opposite.


I thought he was supposed to "listen to the science". I am wondering who were the "many from the industry" who told Ige he should not open in October. Maybe they were real estate potential buyers who wanted to profit from possible liquidations. I bet he did not ask the corner store owner about it.

The comments are turning more and more negative indeed and those that were defending their actions seem to be fewer and fewer. Probably people are starting to open their eyes.


----------



## ljmiii

[deleted]


----------



## hurnik

b2bailey said:


> Appears to be exactly what I'm looking for. However, my search for sites in CA came back with a list of random, unsorted country-wide results. Can someone else give it a try?



If you're referring to the rapid test site, it's unsorted.  Just hit CTRL-F (at least in Firefox) to open the "find" window and type whatever city you're looking for and it'll search the entire page for that word.


----------



## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> You must play some short easy private courses riding carts where there was no party in front of you and all the players must be very good.  I am most familiar with the 5 Bethpage State Park Public Courses which cost $2 for 18 holes when I was young including the Black Course which has been used a few times for the US Open.  We always walked and in those days carried our OWN bag.  You could never even play those courses in under 4 hours with four players which is the maximum limit of a FOURSOME.  We would break 100 on these courses but breaking 90 for average players was a major goal and struggle.  Most times it was close to 6 hours.  Different life experiences bring people to differnent thoughts on how things are and how things should be on many issues.


Well, yes, it's a private course. "Short easy...." Eh, rated 75.0, hosted the NCAA, hosts the annual Southwestern Invitational (which will be on the golf channel this February), and has hosted several US Open qualifiers. At OUR location, not being allowed to play 5 is a silly rule. But, you're entirely missing the points. First, whether you play 4, 5 or whatever as a GOLF rule is fine, but as a COVID rule is silly. The discussion was about COVID rules, not golf etiquette or golf rules. Second, the broader point is that it would not even be an issue if people would just commit to not do things that endanger others. Saying "I have the RIGHT to not wear a mask" may be technically true, but it's tantamount to saying, "and therefore I have the RIGHT to infect others with a potentially fatal disease." I'm not sure the latter is true, and I KNOW what it says about the speaker's character.


----------



## csodjd

slip said:


> Certainly looks like a no for October 1st.
> 
> https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...lRFxSQJ_o-3zMMN4zRW4DNm0SncFaIUw37GFpiXJf5hyk


Based on this (and a dose of reality and common sense) I've finally tossed in the white towel and canceled the Oct 26 HGVC Lagoon Tower reservations, and rebooked for Jan 25. Hopefully that puts some air and space into the plans to allow a Nov 1 or even Dec 1 opening, along with time for some of Waikiki to reopen.


----------



## Luanne

Tamaradarann said:


> I agree with your point here but I must take exception to the Fivesome Example.  A Foursome has been the standard for golf parties for as long as I know which goes back to the early 60's and I would guess it has been the standard way before that.  It has nothing to do with the Coronavirus.  Furthermore, it is important not to have more than Four to keep the game moving and not hold up the party that just finished the previous hole who wants to Tee Off and not have to wait for 5 golfers playing in front of them.  On the courses that I have played starters will break up a Fivesome into a Threesome and a Twosome and place singles and doubles with these two groups.


I always thought that no more than a foursome could go out on a golf course.  My dad was an avid golfer and many times on vacation he'd join an existing twosome or threesome.  He played one time, I think it was on Kauai, but could have been another island, and they added him to an existing foursome.  It was four Japanese players.  My dad said they *ran *from place to place.  He said it was quite an experience.

And yes, I know this has nothing to do with Covid, but I just love this story, and it does have to do with golf and Hawaii.


----------



## rickandcindy23

There is a snowball effect with some people who depend on the tourists and are not able to work.  Now they stop spending money at the essential businesses.  Essential businesses are starting to suffer, too, even grocery stores.  

So first the hotel and restaurants get hit, along with popular tourists' activities.  This is creating an even bigger rift between those that have and those that have not.  And that is happening all over the country.  

Food banks are overwhelmed on the islands.  People need to eat.


----------



## Fredflintstone

OP: Note to self.... why bother putting in a month? 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


----------



## csodjd

Luanne said:


> I always thought that no more than a foursome could go out on a golf course.  My dad was an avid golfer and many times on vacation he'd join an existing twosome or threesome.  He played one time, I think it was on Kauai, but could have been another island, and they added him to an existing foursome.  It was four Japanese players.  My dad said they *ran *from place to place.  He said it was quite an experience.
> 
> And yes, I know this has nothing to do with Covid, but I just love this story, and it does have to do with golf and Hawaii.


In/on public accessible golf courses it has been traditional to limit groups to four players. Not so at private clubs where there is readily available accountability. At our club, like many others, it makes no difference at all how many are in the group. What matters is how long it takes to play. We support a sixsome that plays in under 4 hours and will sanction a threesome that takes 5 hours for slow play. Public facilities don't have the kind of accountability tools that a private club has, and pace of play is always a problem. But, do you think that if Tiger, Obama, and the heads of three Fortune 50 companies showed up at Augusta to play, the club would say, sorry, no fivesomes? 

Our club operates by a simple rule: if there is a hole open in front of you and a group behind you must wait for a shot, you must step aside and waive them through. 

COVID has had an interesting impact on pace of play: we now consistently play in 30-45 minutes less per round. There are three reasons. 1. No touching pins so there's no time spent pulling or replacing flagsticks. 2. No raking bunkers, so as soon as you hit a bunker shot you leave the bunker and head to your ball. 3. The big one. Everyone has their own cart, so you drive to your ball and are not waiting at another person's ball for them to hit. Our walkers are now particularly aware of not holding their group up, and they have sped up notably. So even a group of four walkers is playing in about 3.5 hours.


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## Tamaradarann

csodjd said:


> Well, yes, it's a private course. "Short easy...." Eh, rated 75.0, hosted the NCAA, hosts the annual Southwestern Invitational (which will be on the golf channel this February), and has hosted several US Open qualifiers. At OUR location, not being allowed to play 5 is a silly rule. But, you're entirely missing the points. First, whether you play 4, 5 or whatever as a GOLF rule is fine, but as a COVID rule is silly. The discussion was about COVID rules, not golf etiquette or golf rules. Second, the broader point is that it would not even be an issue if people would just commit to not do things that endanger others. Saying "I have the RIGHT to not wear a mask" may be technically true, but it's tantamount to saying, "and therefore I have the RIGHT to infect others with a potentially fatal disease." I'm not sure the latter is true, and I KNOW what it says about the speaker's character.



I agree with everything you said here.  In the spirit of having to sit on the beach 6 feet away from ones husband or wife I wonder why they don't insist on everyone playing as singles!


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## rickandcindy23

This kind of became a debate about the number of people who can golf at once on course in CA.  We do get off of the OT at times.    

I am concerned for our friends and family who live on the islands.  How are they going to stay there.  Already one famiily member (one was a hotel worker at the Hyatt on Maui) left the island to fly into whatever airport was the cheapest, which turned out to be San Diego, rented an apartment, and the two of them are trying to find jobs in the hospitality industry.  They may have to walk away from the lease on the apartment after they attempt to pay rent another month.  I think they will be back in Denver soon.  Not many jobs here right now, either.


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## rickandcindy23

DannyTS said:


> I thought he was supposed to "listen to the science". I am wondering who were the "many from the industry" who told Ige he should not open in October. Maybe they were real estate potential buyers who wanted to profit from possible liquidations. I bet he did not ask the corner store owner about it.
> 
> The comments are turning more and more negative indeed and those that were defending their actions seem to be fewer and fewer. Probably people are starting to open their eyes.


There will be some of those people, I am sure.  We do have friends moving from Oahu to Maui.  Perhaps they will get a good deal on a house.  One currently lives on Oahu in their home that is sold, the other on Maui.  He is shopping for houses, while she cannot go back and forth right now to look at houses with him.  Lots of virtual tours for her by cell phone.  Governor Ige is keeping them away from each other.  It's so weird.


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## csodjd

Tamaradarann said:


> I agree with everything you said here.  In the spirit of having to sit on the beach 6 feet away from ones husband or wife I wonder why they don't insist on everyone playing as singles!


Are any golf courses in Hawaii open?


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## ljmiii

A bit of good news. Hawaii's positives per 100K and % positivity rate are now low enough to get the state off NY's 'naughty' list.


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## Luanne

csodjd said:


> In/on public accessible golf courses it has been traditional to limit groups to four players.


My dad would have been playing at a public course.


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## csodjd

rickandcindy23 said:


> This kind of became a debate about the number of people who can golf at once on course in CA.  We do get off of the OT at times.
> 
> I am concerned for our friends and family who live on the islands.  How are they going to stay there.  Already one famiily member (one was a hotel worker at the Hyatt on Maui) left the island to fly into whatever airport was the cheapest, which turned out to be San Diego, rented an apartment, and the two of them are trying to find jobs in the hospitality industry.  They may have to walk away from the lease on the apartment after they attempt to pay rent another month.  I think they will be back in Denver soon.  Not many jobs here right now, either.


This is something I commented on a while back. Eventually some or many of the hospitality workers will be forced to leave Hawaii to look for work. As that happens, the harms to the employer's of those people become irreparable. Even with the best of intentions, you cannot operate a business without employees, and cannot operate a business well without good employees. Hawaii cannot afford, IMO, to allow an irreparable loss of employees to occur. It's one thing to have employees without work, but ready to go on a moment's notice. It's another entirely to not have employees at all.


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## csodjd

ljmiii said:


> A bit of good news. Hawaii's positives per 100K and % positivity rate are now low enough to get the state off NY's 'naughty' list.
> 
> View attachment 26568


Ah, the irony. NY will allow you to fly in from Hawaii. But Oahu won't let you fly in from Maui.


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## ljmiii

csodjd said:


> Ah, the irony. NY will allow you to fly in from Hawaii. But Oahu won't let you fly in from Maui.


Anyone can fly *to* O'ahu from another Hawaiian island...it's getting back that's the kicker. From the DOT website...

"Governor David Ige announced the partial reinstatement of the *interisland quarantine*, effective Aug. 11, 2020. The 14-day quarantine requirement applies to any person traveling to the counties of Kauai, Hawaii, Maui and Kalawao (Molokai) as stated in the 11th supplementary emergency proclamation. Interisland passengers arriving on Oahu are not required to quarantine..."









						CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) TRANSPORTATION RELATED INFORMATION AND RESOURCES
					

For State COVID-19 updates and information visit https://hawaiicovid19.com/ For COVID-19 updates and information from the Hawaii Tourism Authority visit https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/news/alerts/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/ For City and County of Honolulu: 808-768-2489 or...




					hidot.hawaii.gov


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## CPNY

Not looking good.




__





						Gov. Ige: Trans-Pacific travel plan unlikely to arrive by Oct. 1
					

Gov. David Ige said Monday that the trans-Pacific pre-travel testing plan likely will be pushed back again — this time beyond its Oct. 1 tentative start date, a spokeswoman from his office confirmed Monday afternoon. The program, originally slated to begin Aug. 1, was designed as a way to reopen...




					www.mauinews.com


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## csodjd

This won't change anyone's minds, but it is nonetheless a testimony to the effectiveness of the orders in place. Not too long ago Hawaii was the furthest right on this chart reflecting the highest Rt value in the United States. Today it is the lowest, meaning a single infected person is spreading the disease to the fewest others of any state in the US. It has gone from ~1.29 about 8 weeks ago (which means exponential growth in cases) to 0.80 today. A value below 1.0 reflects the disease going away.


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## jabberwocky

amy241 said:


> There is no guarantee he will not close the state anytime he feels the need.





CPNY said:


> Not looking good.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gov. Ige: Trans-Pacific travel plan unlikely to arrive by Oct. 1
> 
> 
> Gov. David Ige said Monday that the trans-Pacific pre-travel testing plan likely will be pushed back again — this time beyond its Oct. 1 tentative start date, a spokeswoman from his office confirmed Monday afternoon. The program, originally slated to begin Aug. 1, was designed as a way to reopen...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mauinews.com


And now they want testing for inter-island travel too?  There goes any thought of visiting multiple islands.


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## bnoble

With the (likely) push to Nov 1, we are still hanging on to our three weeks in late Dec/early Jan by a thread. If it pushes to December 1, we will probably cancel---that's not likely to leave enough time for us to see how it works.


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## jabberwocky

csodjd said:


> This won't change anyone's minds, but it is nonetheless a testimony to the effectiveness of the orders in place. Not too long ago Hawaii was the furthest right on this chart reflecting the highest Rt value in the United States. Today it is the lowest, meaning a single infected person is spreading the disease to the fewest others of any state in the US. It has gone from ~1.29 about 8 weeks ago (which means exponential growth in cases) to 0.80 today. A value below 1.0 reflects the disease going away.
> 
> View attachment 26571


It’s good to see progress. I’m particularly impressed with the effectiveness that lockdown orders have had in the states immediately to the right of HI in this chart.


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## csodjd

jabberwocky said:


> It’s good to see progress. I’m particularly impressed with the effectiveness that lockdown orders have had in the states immediately to the right of HI in this chart.


The problem with the graph is that it's describing what already happened and is limited in predictive value because, for instance, a few big Labor Day parties leading to 200 new cases won't show up on it for a couple weeks. So, grain of salt is in order. But it does show the good results that have occurred so far.


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## DeniseM

I'm thinking about closing this thread when the quarantine is extended to Nov. 1, and starting a new Hawaii C19 discussion thread, if you guys like that idea? Please use the like button if you think it's a good idea, like Luanne did.


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## csodjd

66 new cases reported today, down from 80 yesterday, and continuing the downward march. The very good news, as I see it, is that we are now 8 days past Labor Day, 8-10 past the weekend, and so Labor Day bad behavior should be mostly in the data by now. 

The 7-day moving average is 118 new cases. Infection rate steady at 2.2%. 7-day hospitalizations at 8%. All very good numbers. Seems clear that Hawaii is out of its uncontrolled spread and now winding down back to low levels. My guess is the governor extends to Nov 1 for the sole reason that he wants to see if they can open up and maintain these levels. He needs 2-3 weeks after the opening for that, and that puts him well past Oct. 1 to know.


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## DannyTS

csodjd said:


> Based on this (and a dose of reality and common sense) I've finally tossed in the white towel and canceled the Oct 26 HGVC Lagoon Tower reservations, and rebooked for Jan 25. Hopefully that puts some air and space into the plans to allow a Nov 1 or even Dec 1 opening, along with time for some of Waikiki to reopen.


Nothing says parole... I mean vacation like an electronic monitoring bracelet


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## Ken555

What options exist for those who arrive only to discover days later that they are C19 positive? They can’t fly home. Where do they stay? What does this cost? Who pays? 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## JIMinNC

DannyTS said:


> Nothing says parole... I mean vacation like an electronic monitoring bracelet



The “new” spirit of Aloha!


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## csodjd

Ken555 said:


> What options exist for those who arrive only to discover days later that they are C19 positive? They can’t fly home. Where do they stay? What does this cost? Who pays?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Exactly why if/when we go we are determined to self-quarantine for at least 5-7 days before testing so by arrival in Hawaii we're about 9-10 days out and either should have symptoms already or, if asymptomatic, already at the end of contagion per the CDC. If some quarantine is required to make it safe, I'd rather do it at home than in Hawaii!


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## frank808

csodjd said:


> Based on this (and a dose of reality and common sense) I've finally tossed in the white towel and canceled the Oct 26 HGVC Lagoon Tower reservations, and rebooked for Jan 25. Hopefully that puts some air and space into the plans to allow a Nov 1 or even Dec 1 opening, along with time for some of Waikiki to reopen.


I thought HHV announced that it was closed till at least Nov 15? My friend owns a restaurant at HHV and they might not reopen. They are closed indefinitely but he has to still pay rent. He is not even allowed onto HHV property to do anything at his restaurant. 

Sent from my SM-T377P using Tapatalk


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## csodjd

frank808 said:


> I thought HHV announced that it was closed till at least Nov 15? My friend owns a restaurant at HHV and they might not reopen. They are closed indefinitely but he has to still pay rent. He is not even allowed onto HHV property to do anything at his restaurant.
> 
> Sent from my SM-T377P using Tapatalk


It's not clear. It appears you cannot make a reservation before Dec 15. But on Sept. 4 I was able to make a reservation for Oct-Nov. I just canceled that this morning, but HGVC had not canceled it, so as of this morning they still had that reservation on the books. Most I can say is that HHV has been unclear in their situation.


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## Tamaradarann

DeniseM said:


> I'm thinking about closing this thread when the quarantine is extended to Nov. 1, and starting a new Hawaii C19 discussion thread, if you guys like that idea? Please use the like button if you think it's a good idea, like Luanne did.



I like that you said "WHEN" since you kind of know that it will be extended.  Perhaps you should just call it "When will Hawaii Open", that way if it gets extended again and again you won't need to close it.  However, I do get the impression from reading the last statement from Governor Ige that he finally got it that extending it over and over is NOT good for Hawaii.  He may extend it more than a month to say December 1 and make sure that everything is in place for an opening before the Holidays no matter what.


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## DeniseM

*THREAD CLOSED:* *A new thread & a poll has been started here: https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/n...-c-19-hawaii-when-will-hawaii-re-open.309304/*


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