# Airfare is insane



## cindi (Apr 30, 2013)

I have started checking out flights for our Oct trip to Orlando with our 6 year old grandson.

The prices are totally insane! 

Is there something going on that I wasn't aware of? We usually pay between $550 to $600 per ticket.  Right now they are over $1000 each!!

Is any one else finding the prices out of sight lately? I am really hoping this is a temporary situation or we will have one very sad little grandson.


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## Blues (Apr 30, 2013)

Can you drive to Minneapolis?  I just put some random October dates into Southwest's site, and you can get MSP-MCO round trip for under $400.

HTH,
Bob


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## K2Quick (Apr 30, 2013)

You're looking too far in advance in my opinion.  Just wait for a good sale to hit.  There's no hard-and-fast rule, but most big sales are going to happen around 2 to 3 months before your flight.


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## hypnotiq (Apr 30, 2013)

*Booking flights too early can be as expensive as booking too late*
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/feb/03/travel/la-tr-0203-money-20130203


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## siesta (Apr 30, 2013)

To the op, yes ive noticed the same.  Airfare prices are higher then typical. I am guessing this is due to the sequester and faa issues, who knows.


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## am1 (Apr 30, 2013)

Inflation, less competition, less seats


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## vacationhopeful (Apr 30, 2013)

am1 said:


> Inflation, less competition, less seats



Less airlines for competition, fewer flights, better stock market .. more people travelling.:whoopie:


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## cindi (Apr 30, 2013)

Thanks for the comments,  I appreciate them.

I was just so shocked at the prices I had to ask.

I will wait and hope the prices come down.  I had thought we usually buy our flights for the Oct grandson trip in May, as that is when we get our free companion ticket promotion, and I know it has never been like this.  Heck, we flew to Hawaii for about that last year!

I had thought of and checked into driving to MSP and going from there.  If I used Delta, which is our preferred provider, the cost was still totally outrageous.  It was significantly less if we went with Air Tran.  Didn't check others.

Problem with that is it is a whole day of driving each way, as it is 450 miles.  That means extra time off work as well as off school.  I would have to save an awful lot to make the costs worth it in the long run, adding in hotels and meals and gas.

I will keep watching and keep my fingers crossed.  I honestly don't think I have ever seen prices this high in the 30 plus years we have been flying to Orlando.


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## am1 (Apr 30, 2013)

vacationhopeful said:


> Less airlines for competition, fewer flights, better stock market .. more people travelling.:whoopie:



So one entity is responsible for it all?


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## SMHarman (Apr 30, 2013)

cindi said:


> Thanks for the comments,  I appreciate them.
> 
> I was just so shocked at the prices I had to ask.
> 
> ...



http://www.bing.com/travel the price predictior is quite nifty.

Dunno what your dates are but 10/12-19 comes in at 525 on UA which is in your expectation range.


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## SkyBlueWaters (May 1, 2013)

*Same here*



cindi said:


> Thanks for the comments,  I appreciate them.
> 
> I was just so shocked at the prices I had to ask.
> 
> ...



Leaving in a month, and can't believe my eyes. I've paid, in the past from $90 with Spirit, now they want $300, same route. Although this is peak for summer travel. 

Will be forced or drive 1000 one way, and then back or forfeit.


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## lprstn (May 1, 2013)

I know how you feel. No sure fire way and airfare has gone up overall. They can't blame it on gas prices.


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## WinniWoman (May 1, 2013)

cindi said:


> Thanks for the comments,  I appreciate them.
> 
> I was just so shocked at the prices I had to ask.
> 
> ...



This is one reason why my husband and I have been putting off any travel that involves flying, although there are places we would love to go. We are sticking to driving 8 hours or less to a resort for now....It's getting bad and we still work also and our incomes (capped) are not increasing anytime soon....On top of that, my employer has capped vacation time as well....


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## 1st Class (May 1, 2013)

Last fall SWA ran a special.  It cost us only $260 r/t to fly to Orlando in November.  I couldn't believe the price!  Keep watching for those occasional sales.


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## Carolinian (May 1, 2013)

For Orlando, Amtrak is always an option.  A 6 year old would probably love a train trip.

I look more at TATL fares, and it used to be off season was ~$500 but the last couple of years it has been double that.  Shoulder season used to be ~$800 but you could luck into sales or consolidators in the $500-600 range. Now those are about the same price as off season.  That means unless there is some special reason to go at that time, why would anyone do TATL leisure travel in the off season anymore when you can generally get a ticket in shoulder season at about the same price.

Lack of competition in the US seems to be leading to higher prices, like many predicted.  We can thank the government agencies which stabbed consumers in the back by allowing the airline mergers, reducing competition.  Also SWA is no longer a low price airline.  Intra-Europe fares are still good due to vigorous competition from real low fare airlines like EasyJet, RyanAir, and WizzAir.  That often means good fares on legacy airlines as well.  I have picked up London - Bucharest and London - Budapest fares on BA, for example for ~$100 all-in. Those are roughly the same flight distance as OP's route.

What the US needs is real competition from a real LCC.  RyanAir keeps talking about wanting to come to the US.  Maybe some day they will.


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## SMHarman (May 1, 2013)

Carolinian said:


> For Orlando, Amtrak is always an option.  A 6 year old would probably love a train trip.


I was looking at the Car Train down there.  It looks a great option.  Amtrak pricing gets more expensive as time closes in so book early.  Amtrak also cancels without / with minimal penalty.


Carolinian said:


> I look more at TATL fares, and it used to be off season was ~$500 but the last couple of years it has been double that.  Shoulder season used to be ~$800 but you could luck into sales or consolidators in the $500-600 range. Now those are about the same price as off season.  That means unless there is some special reason to go at that time, why would anyone do TATL leisure travel in the off season anymore when you can generally get a ticket in shoulder season at about the same price.


TATL really is crucified by gas prices.  You load about 3 barrels of oil per seat across the Atlantic so that is about $300 of brent crude per seat.  It's a big driver of the $500 > $800 difference.  If you look at some of those cheap fares you see the airline is getting about $25 each way after they have paid the airport, departure / arrival taxes and gas.  You really see that on the FF tickets.  It's not worth buying them TATL anymore.


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## bogey21 (May 1, 2013)

For years I had a policy of setting the maximum airfare I would pay for a particular trip.  If I couldn't get it, I just cancelled the trip.  Yes, I would have to eat my MF but damned if I was going to spend $800 to save a $450 MF.  Originally I cancelled very few trips but then they started to mount.  I then divested my TS Weeks which required flying (SC and FL) and focused on those I could drive to (NM, TX, MS, AR, etc).  I haven't flown in years and don't miss it one bit.

George


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## gnorth16 (May 1, 2013)

*Try Allegiant Air*

They fly out of Bismark, Minot, Grand Forks and Fargo.  (Williston too, I believe) They fly into Sanford, which is 40 minutes Northeast of WDW, and is direct.  They only fly every third or fourth day, they are a charter airline, and they penny pinch on bags and carry ons.  Still, they saved us a ton last year, even considering we drove down from Winnipeg, stayed in a hotel one night and paid for parking for 14 days.

An added bonus is that Sanford is a small airport with only two car rentals.  Easy in, easy out and Allegiant gets deals with Alamo car rental as well

Edit: They don't fly to Florida from BIS and MOT, only GFK and FAR.


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## SkyBlueWaters (May 1, 2013)

*Thank you!*



gnorth16 said:


> They fly out of Bismark, Minot, Grand Forks and Fargo.  (Williston too, I believe) They fly into Sanford, which is 40 minutes Northeast of WDW, and is direct.  They only fly every third or fourth day, they are a charter airline, and they penny pinch on bags and carry ons.  Still, they saved us a ton last year, even considering we drove down from Winnipeg, stayed in a hotel one night and paid for parking for 14 days.
> 
> An added bonus is that Sanford is a small airport with only two car rentals.  Easy in, easy out and Allegiant gets deals with Alamo car rental as well
> 
> Edit: They don't fly to Florida from BIS and MOT, only GFK and FAR.



I just looked into this. Thanks.


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## natasha5687 (May 1, 2013)

FWIW I do not usually fly United however I have gotten some really good deals from them lately.  I am bringing my aunt in RT from Little Rock Arkansas to Reagan for $204.  It would have cost me around $350 to fly her into BWI.  On a whim I decided to check them out for my trip to PR and got 1 way direct flights from Dulles for $140 pp.  I did not see these rates on the consolidator websites.


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## cindi (May 1, 2013)

I just checked on United and Allegiant.  With United I am still showing about $826 per ticket. Allegiant doesn't fly on the days we need and the times kinda suck.  

I am hoping to stay with delta since we have two free companion tickets we use each year for the grandson and his mother.  

I think once I retire we will just plan on driving on vacations.  Our time wil be our own and our finances will be much more limited.  I personally don't mind driving but DH isn't a big fan.  At this point though, driving really isn't an option. 

What a freaking rip off! ran

Once trip many years ago I did take Air Tran out of Minneapolis.  We were a party of 4 and even with driving to MSP plus an overnight hotel room x 2, we saved a LOT.  We saved $400 PER TICKET!! I saved $1600 on airfare by driving to MSP.  

We are so screwed with choices with the monopoly out of Bismarck.


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## SMHarman (May 1, 2013)

bogey21 said:


> For years I had a policy of setting the maximum airfare I would pay for a particular trip.  If I couldn't get it, I just cancelled the trip.  Yes, I would have to eat my MF but damned if I was going to spend $800 to save a $450 MF.  Originally I cancelled very few trips but then they started to mount.  I then divested my TS Weeks which required flying (SC and FL) and focused on those I could drive to (NM, TX, MS, AR, etc).  I haven't flown in years and don't miss it one bit.
> 
> George


And how has your 'gas' cost for these trips gone up over the same time frame?  You use a lot of gas to move a heavier than air craft.


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## timeos2 (May 1, 2013)

Interesting discussion. Until very recently air fare to FL from Rochester had been on a steady increase. But our latest fares are back to levels we hadn't seen since the early 90's. Under $175 r/t.  Direct flights. Can't beat it. 

Staying with a preferred brand airline - especially the big names - tends to be very expensive. The same flight - has one stop - with US AIr is $339. United $437 and American $487.  Meanwhile Jet Blue is $229 and Delta $259 - both with one stop.  

You have to shop and hopefully you have more than one airline or two to pick from to get the best deals.


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## nursie (May 1, 2013)

*Ticket prices up*

We booked airfare to Orlando from Minneapolis months ago, maybe 5 months. It was $436 nonstop on Delta for the times we chose, I thought that was bad since we paid about $60-70 less per ticket last Sept. Our times are leaving at 10:30 in morning, returning 3:30pm on flight back (so not crummy times) and now the same flight is $546 !! It is in June so I don't know if waiting means Fall flights will decrease in price but Wowzer, so far it's been nothing but up...........


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## T_R_Oglodyte (May 1, 2013)

SMHarman said:


> And how has your 'gas' cost for these trips gone up over the same time frame?  You use a lot of gas to move a heavier than air craft.



Bingo!  Fuel is the biggest operating cost for an airline.  Overall, as fuel costs go up, fares go up overall.  There are exceptions, of course, as competition creates different pricing pressures on different routes.

The biggest thing that airlines can do to reduce the impact of fuel prices are:

1.  put more people on the plane.  The amount of fuel consumed per passenger-mile goes down the more passengers there are on the plane.

2.  make fewer flights, with larger planes, and keep those planes full.  In general larger plane that is full has lower fuel consumption per passenger mile than does a smaller plane.

3. do more direct flights between city pairs instead of having people make connections.  It takes extra fuel for a plane to land and take off.  

4. reduce the amount of non-passenger weight on the plane - i.e., get people to take fewer things with them on the plane.  

Note that Items #2 and #3 will often conflict with each other.  

More and more the strategy with airlines seems to be that if there is enough traffic on a route to fly nearly full 737s, airlines will start doing so.  It appears that a 737 must be at the point where criterion #3 begins to outweigh criterion #2.  The LCCs create their dendritic networks by finding another city they can fly to from an existing city with nearly full 737s.


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## T_R_Oglodyte (May 1, 2013)

nursie said:


> We booked airfare to Orlando from Minneapolis months ago, maybe 5 months. It was $436 nonstop on Delta for the times we chose, I thought that was bad since we paid about $60-70 less per ticket last Sept. Our times are leaving at 10:30 in morning, returning 3:30pm on flight back (so not crummy times) and now the same flight is $546 !! It is in June so I don't know if waiting means Fall flights will decrease in price but Wowzer, so far it's been nothing but up...........



I don't think it's wise to make decisions to wait or not to wait based on what you've paid in the past. That decision should be made based on what one thinks will happen with fuel prices, and what you pay for gas for your car is a good proxy since jet fuel and gasoline are interchangeable products at the refinery.  

If you expect gasoline prices are going to go up from where they are at the time you are considering buying your  tickets, you should probably lock in your price.  OTOH - if you think gasoline prices are going to go down, you should wait on your purchase.


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## WinniWoman (May 1, 2013)

SMHarman said:


> And how has your 'gas' cost for these trips gone up over the same time frame?  You use a lot of gas to move a heavier than air craft.



I'm with George, as I posted...It's not only that the airfare is so expensive, but the experience of flying has gotten worse and worse over the years and they want more and more money for the misery! And, then there's the car rental fees.....


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## gnorth16 (May 1, 2013)

*When do seat sales occur?*

When do you notice sales???  I think around the 9 month marks is where I luck out, but I check daily since the TS is usually  booked before the flights...


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## SMHarman (May 1, 2013)

mpumilia said:


> I'm with George, as I posted...It's not only that the airfare is so expensive, but the experience of flying has gotten worse and worse over the years and they want more and more money for the misery! And, then there's the car rental fees.....


As I said, for a New Yorker you can drive to Washington and put your car on the train if you are heading to Orlando.  The price is about the same as flights and car hire combined.


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## NJDave (May 1, 2013)

cindi said:


> I have started checking out flights for our Oct trip to Orlando with our 6 year old grandson.
> 
> The prices are totally insane!
> 
> ...



You could set up an price alert on Kayak to receive an email when the price drops to your targeted fare for your dates.


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## cindi (May 2, 2013)

NJDave said:


> You could set up an price alert on Kayak to receive an email when the price drops to your targeted fare for your dates.



Thanks Dave,

I do have a price alert set continually for Orlando, but I should perhaps go back and make sure it is still working.

I am trying to stay positive and assume the prices will drop down as we get closer to our target date.


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## jdiepm (May 2, 2013)

We purchased tickets to MCO via Spirit airlines about 3 months out and paid under $200pp. That said we were flying from chicago (ORD) so more flights and more competitive prices.

Currently trying to get tickets to London for my sisters wedding in September and its looking to be $1200pp :annoyed:, might have to leave the husband at home for this one. Five years ago it only cost $600pp to fly to England and now prices have doubled and so has our family size.


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## Tropical lady (May 2, 2013)

*? another option*

I agree with frustrating airfares and have alerts set up.  In Kayak they have sometimes "hacker fares" which combine 2 one ways on 2 different airlines, so they do the work for you. That gave me the idea.... on Orbitz or Kayak I check one way going and one way coming back and was successful on one trip saving quite a bit over the traditional r/t.  This used 2 different airlines.
It takes constant looking tho.....
Also I have found 6 weeks before your trip, when they are first posted, and Thurs evenings to be good times for booking.  A change from Tues-Wed.


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## SMHarman (May 2, 2013)

jdiepm said:


> Currently trying to get tickets to London for my sisters wedding in September and its looking to be $1200pp :annoyed:, might have to leave the husband at home for this one. Five years ago it only cost $600pp to fly to England and now prices have doubled and so has our family size.


I would imagine that would come down to nearer $900 for a direct flight closer in when they realize they are not filling the seats.  Also remember that the UK has a GBP85 about $130 departure tax when flying to the US.  It's only GBP13 USD20 for a short flight from the UK so flying into something nearby (Paris, Amsterdam, Iceland) and then connecting to the UK saves money on this tax.
The Iceland option even gives you an option to stopover in Iceland for some time and visit what is supposed to be an amazing country.
Indirect with a stopover in September when everyone is back at school from ORD/BOS/NYC etc should be nearer (but not below) $800 IMHO.


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## jdiepm (May 2, 2013)

SMHarman said:


> I would imagine that would come down to nearer $900 for a direct flight closer in when they realize they are not filling the seats.  Also remember that the UK has a GBP85 about $130 departure tax when flying to the US.  It's only GBP13 USD20 for a short flight from the UK so flying into something nearby (Paris, Amsterdam, Iceland) and then connecting to the UK saves money on this tax.
> The Iceland option even gives you an option to stopover in Iceland for some time and visit what is supposed to be an amazing country.
> Indirect with a stopover in September when everyone is back at school from ORD/BOS/NYC etc should be nearer (but not below) $800 IMHO.



I looked into a stopover and prices were pretty much the same at the moment. I would love to stop and see Iceland (bucket list), unfortunately with a 2yr old and 5yr old, it wouldnt be very fun. Im holding off buying for now, $900 is actually my magic number, if that happens il be straight in there.


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## SMHarman (May 2, 2013)

jdiepm said:


> I looked into a stopover and prices were pretty much the same at the moment. I would love to stop and see Iceland (bucket list), unfortunately with a 2yr old and 5yr old, it wouldnt be very fun. Im holding off buying for now, $900 is actually my magic number, if that happens il be straight in there.


http://news.cheapflights.co.uk/air-passenger-duty-how-to-avoid-the-flight-tax/
Is a good article.
I had the same last summer - true summer though when the school was out and the sticker shock of I'm not paying over $6k to get 4 people to LHR.  My final bill and the flights were when the Olympics were on was under $4k.
That was Me, DW, 2 and 9 yr olds.  The 2yr old was remarkably great on all the flights.
I'd recommend the CARES harness (see if you can borrow one from a family on a local parent list serv / bbs / meetup).


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## Ken555 (May 2, 2013)

As fares go up, miles and award travel may look more appealing again.


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## Carolinian (May 2, 2013)

jdiepm said:


> We purchased tickets to MCO via Spirit airlines about 3 months out and paid under $200pp. That said we were flying from chicago (ORD) so more flights and more competitive prices.
> 
> Currently trying to get tickets to London for my sisters wedding in September and its looking to be $1200pp :annoyed:, might have to leave the husband at home for this one. Five years ago it only cost $600pp to fly to England and now prices have doubled and so has our family size.



Have you tried Iceland Air or Aer Lingus?


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## Carolinian (May 2, 2013)

SMHarman said:


> I would imagine that would come down to nearer $900 for a direct flight closer in when they realize they are not filling the seats.  Also remember that the UK has a GBP85 about $130 departure tax when flying to the US.  It's only GBP13 USD20 for a short flight from the UK so flying into something nearby (Paris, Amsterdam, Iceland) and then connecting to the UK saves money on this tax.
> The Iceland option even gives you an option to stopover in Iceland for some time and visit what is supposed to be an amazing country.
> Indirect with a stopover in September when everyone is back at school from ORD/BOS/NYC etc should be nearer (but not below) $800 IMHO.



If I were flying TATL to the UK from the US, I would avoid the UK APD tax you reference by flying open jaw on one ticket, outbound US to UK, and then the return from somewhere else.  Ireland, rather than Iceland would be my pick, as Irish departure taxes are about the lowest in Europe, and you can usually get a cheap connecting flight to Dublin on Aer Lingus.  Ryan Air is another option, but I prefer Aer Lingus.  The connecting flight must be on a separate ticket on you get popped for the TATL UK APD.


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## tashamen (May 3, 2013)

SMHarman said:


> I would imagine that would come down to nearer $900 for a direct flight closer in when they realize they are not filling the seats.  Also remember that the UK has a GBP85 about $130 departure tax when flying to the US.  It's only GBP13 USD20 for a short flight from the UK so flying into something nearby (Paris, Amsterdam, Iceland) and then connecting to the UK saves money on this tax.
> The Iceland option even gives you an option to stopover in Iceland for some time and visit what is supposed to be an amazing country.



Thank you - this is useful information for me, as I'm looking at airfares to Finland in September for my goddaughter's wedding.  I've flown through Iceland before but have not done a stopover there, and just might this time.


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## SMHarman (May 3, 2013)

Ken555 said:


> As fares go up, miles and award travel may look more appealing again.


To some destinations but the UK bound airlines have instituted the fair rise as a 'fuel surcharge' which is not part of the ticket price.
So now you have 
1) Ticket price
2) Taxes
3) Fuel Surcharge
On a BA / VS and some other allied carriers mileage redemption the 50,000+ miles covers 1).
This leaves you with a bill of about $600 a ticket for 2) taxes fees and 3) fuel surcharges.
So now you have dropped 50k miles to save $300.  Not a good redemption rate.  You could drop the same miles on to discount 2x NY>LA $300 tickets with $5 of taxes etc and that is not really a good redemption.
Basically, TATL mileage redemption has become really bad value.


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## Ken555 (May 3, 2013)

SMHarman said:


> To some destinations but the UK bound airlines have instituted the fair rise as a 'fuel surcharge' which is not part of the ticket price.
> So now you have
> 1) Ticket price
> 2) Taxes
> ...



Yes. As I've posted numerous times in other posts, I no longer use miles to travel outbound from London. There are plenty of easy options to avoid this issue, though. Last fall I flew Delta business to London and returned from Frankfurt (but you could choose from many others, Frankfurt was simply convenient to me). Avoid BA to Europe, etc. 

In any event, my point is still valid. Award tickets may become more valuable again as fares increase. Of course, there is no perfect solution. It's likely you will find that award seat availability even more restrictive, etc.


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## cindi (May 3, 2013)

*OMG!!*

It has gone from worse to ridiculous.

I checked the prices again for our flights and instead of just doing the cheapest flights option I chose to select the usual flights we take.

You won't believe this..........the price was $1700!!! Per ticket!! 

This is insane.  This isn't just maybe you are checking a few months early and can save a couple hundred bucks.  This is outrageous.  

I can't think of anything that could possible justify prices like that.  

I may end up losing the exchange and just staying home.


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## bogey21 (May 3, 2013)

cindi said:


> It has gone from worse to ridiculous.......I may end up losing the exchange and just staying home.



As I posted earlier I did this a couple of times.  I just determined the maximum I was willing to pay for air fare.  If I couldn't get it, I just didn't take the trip.  I think I may have done this twice (maybe three times).  I just looked at the lost MF, etc. and the airfare and car rental cost I would avoid and made a decision.

George


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## x3 skier (May 3, 2013)

cindi said:


> It has gone from worse to ridiculous.
> 
> I checked the prices again for our flights and instead of just doing the cheapest flights option I chose to select the usual flights we take.
> 
> ...



It's called the market. If they can sell tickets at that price or even higher, they will. If they can't they will sell at a lower price. 

With consolidation and reduction in capacity, the airlines can raise prices and maybe make money instead of going into bankruptcy.

Cheers.


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## gnorth16 (May 3, 2013)

x3 skier said:


> It's called the market. If they can sell tickets at that price or even higher, they will. If they can't they will sell at a lower price.
> 
> With consolidation and reduction in capacity, the airlines can raise prices and maybe make money instead of going into bankruptcy.
> 
> Cheers.



No.  It's called gouging.  If it were within a month, holidays or a flight with only 3 or 4 seats left, it's the market.  For a flight that is 6 months out with 90% of the seats available for purchase during the "low season" is gouging.  $1700 for a ticket within North America is ridiculous.


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## NJDave (May 3, 2013)

cindi said:


> It has gone from worse to ridiculous.
> 
> I checked the prices again for our flights and instead of just doing the cheapest flights option I chose to select the usual flights we take.
> 
> ...



The prices will come down. They are not going to sell tickets 5 -6 months in advance for $1,700.


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## Carolinian (May 3, 2013)

gnorth16 said:


> No.  It's called gouging.  If it were within a month, holidays or a flight with only 3 or 4 seats left, it's the market.  For a flight that is 6 months out with 90% of the seats available for purchase during the "low season" is gouging.  $1700 for a ticket within North America is ridiculous.



I quite agree.  I look at the prices that Ryan Air charges, and they are a heck of a lot cheaper for distances involved than the legacy carriers, and yet Ryan Air is consistently profitable, as is Easy Jet. whose prices are not that much higher than Ryan.

What we need is Ryan Air and Easy Jet to come to the US to show US carriers how it is done.  Michael O'Leary of Ryan Air has been wanting to get into TATL flying for some time, as has tried a couple of times to buy Aer Lingus to do just that.  Maybe, now that the EU has rejected that merger (wish the US authority had the backbone to reject mergers!), maybe he will find another way to get into the US market.  

I would love to see the North American airline oligopoly have to compete with an O'Leary operation!


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## x3 skier (May 3, 2013)

gnorth16 said:


> No.  It's called gouging.  If it were within a month, holidays or a flight with only 3 or 4 seats left, it's the market.  For a flight that is 6 months out with 90% of the seats available for purchase during the "low season" is gouging.  $1700 for a ticket within North America is ridiculous.



Like I said, if they can sell them, they will. If they can't, they will lower the price until they sell. That's the way supply and demand works. There has to be willing seller and a willing buyer. If nobody buys at $1700, the price will come down. If they sell, nobody forced somebody to buy at $1700.

Cheers


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## Carolinian (May 3, 2013)

Ken555 said:


> Yes. As I've posted numerous times in other posts, I no longer use miles to travel outbound from London. There are plenty of easy options to avoid this issue, though. Last fall I flew Delta business to London and returned from Frankfurt (but you could choose from many others, Frankfurt was simply convenient to me). Avoid BA to Europe, etc.
> 
> In any event, my point is still valid. Award tickets may become more valuable again as fares increase. Of course, there is no perfect solution. It's likely you will find that award seat availability even more restrictive, etc.



Actually, the French and Germans have tacked on annoying taxes recently, too, just a lot less than the British APD.  Germany's is to help pay for some of their EU bailouts, and France's is for social programs in third world countries.  Gordon Brown justified the UK APD as something intended to reduce air travel in order to ''save the planet'', but the amount projected to come in under the APD just happened to correspond to the shortfall in the London Olympics budget at the time.  The Netherlands briefly had a ''save the planet'' departure tax that was as hefty as the UK, but their departure numbers fell so rapidly as people starting flying from Germany or Belgium instead, that they repealed the tax.

I like Dublin or Amsterdam as return points.  Both are nice cities to stop over in and have great airports.


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## Myxdvz (May 9, 2013)

jdiepm said:


> We purchased tickets to MCO via Spirit airlines about 3 months out and paid under $200pp. That said we were flying from chicago (ORD) so more flights and more competitive prices.
> 
> Currently trying to get tickets to London for my sisters wedding in September and its looking to be $1200pp :annoyed:, might have to leave the husband at home for this one. Five years ago it only cost $600pp to fly to England and now prices have doubled and so has our family size.



I actually saw this.  CHI to MCO for $180pp, I was really surprised!  By the time I saw it though, I don't think there were enough seats as I keep on getting $180 for 1 seat, but if I put 6, I don't get it anymore.  It's currently at $235pp now which is still a good price, but I haven't flown Spirit, so I was hesitant.

Meanwhile, SWA finally released their prices and it's ~$332pp.  For my family of 6, that's still $2000!   The thing with SWA though, is I know if their prices go down, I can rebook and refund the price difference, without change fees. Baggage is free, and for our family with 4 kids, I really like their boarding process because we always end up sitting together.

With our UR points from Chase, we were able to immediately transfer our points to SW RR, and redeeming award tickets for all 6 of us, which I thought was a great redemption price @ ~1.80 per pt.


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## cindi (May 10, 2013)

Our "ususal" flight is now down to a mere $1450.


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## hypnotiq (May 14, 2013)

Finally, the big drop came. 

SEA -> OGG had been sitting at $700 for Sept, which is HIGH for that time of year.

Woke up this morning and checked and it dropped to $404 (about as cheap as you're gonna get for SEA-OGG nonstop).

The $6500 total was a little tough to swallow. LOL


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## x3 skier (May 14, 2013)

As noted, if they can't sell at one price, they lower it until they can. 

Supply and demand usually works quite well. 

Cheers


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## linsj (May 14, 2013)

I've been watching ORD to KOA in September on United for months. Finally, this afternoon it went from $969 to $721, although I paid $40 more for a more-convenient return trip. Now if HNL at the end of October will only drop....


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## Ken555 (May 14, 2013)

You're not alone. I've been trying to find a reasonable fare for LAX-FLL or LAX-MIA and they seem to be around $375-425 rt. In the past I've been able to easily get this route for ~$180-275. It's even more surprising to me since I'm trying to fly during the summer months (within the next 6-7 weeks) when fares to Florida are usually less expensive.


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## hypnotiq (May 14, 2013)

Yeah, airfares have been really strange this year. I was starting to think (especially with gas prices rising recently) that (OGG) wasn't going to come down for Sept (which historically, has been pretty cheap).

I used to be able to find cheap flights ($160) from SEA->LAX  pretty routinely but not this year (so far).


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## WalnutBaron (May 14, 2013)

cindi said:


> It has gone from worse to ridiculous.
> 
> I checked the prices again for our flights and instead of just doing the cheapest flights option I chose to select the usual flights we take.
> 
> ...



Previous posters have variously called this "the market" and "gouging". The correct answer is that it's both. I have a friend who works for Delta and I asked him what's going on with the Bismarck-Orlando route. His answer was interesting:

1. North Dakota is a market which--thanks to the booming oil fracking industry there--has a great deal of disposable income and, along with it, high demand for air travel to the South and the West.

2. Because it has traditionally been a pretty sleepy market until recently, the airlines haven't caught up yet with demand--meaning that the few major airlines that do serve Bismarck have a temporary oligopoly (Delta and United). 

3. Until Southwest or JetBlue or Virgin America comes into the market, the two majors are going to "cooperate" and rack up huge profit margins in your high demand/low supply market.

Bottom line: it's not just Orlando. You're going to be facing much higher airfares for the foreseeable future unless a) your local economy cools down; or b) another airline or two comes into the market.


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## Ken555 (May 15, 2013)

hypnotiq said:


> Yeah, airfares have been really strange this year. I was starting to think (especially with gas prices rising recently) that (OGG) wasn't going to come down for Sept (which historically, has been pretty cheap).
> 
> I used to be able to find cheap flights ($160) from SEA->LAX  pretty routinely but not this year (so far).



I paid $120 for a one way SEA->LAX in March on Virgin.


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## PigsDad (May 15, 2013)

WalnutBaron said:


> Previous posters have variously called this "the market" and "gouging". The correct answer is that it's both. I have a friend who works for Delta and I asked him what's going on with the Bismarck-Orlando route. His answer was interesting:
> 
> 1. North Dakota is a market which--thanks to the booming oil fracking industry there--has a great deal of disposable income and, along with it, high demand for air travel to the South and the West.
> 
> ...



Thanks for the post -- it does make sense that the oil boom could have an effect on the ticket prices in such a small market.

*Cindi *-- have you looked into flying out of Fargo?  Even MSP isn't that bad of a drive (but that would definitely add hotel before and after).  I have family in both Bismarck and close to Fargo, so I feel a little of your pain.  Luckily I have been able to use FF miles for some of our trips there, as the airfare (for a <2hr flight) is usually quite high.

Kurt


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## hypnotiq (May 15, 2013)

Ken555 said:


> I paid $120 for a one way SEA->LAX in March on Virgin.



I was talking RT.


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## Ken555 (May 15, 2013)

hypnotiq said:


> I was talking RT.



That's my point. $120 one way and you used to pay $160 rt (I remember those days, too). Prices have gone up.


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## hypnotiq (May 15, 2013)

Ah, gotcha.  

yeah, ~220 is typical RT fare I'm able to get to LAX these days (we go down 4-5x a year for Disneyland)


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## Ken555 (May 15, 2013)

hypnotiq said:


> Ah, gotcha.
> 
> yeah, ~220 is typical RT fare I'm able to get to LAX these days (we go down 4-5x a year for Disneyland)



You probably already do this, but be sure to also check fares into BUR, LGB and SNA in addition to LAX.


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## hypnotiq (May 15, 2013)

Ken555 said:


> You probably already do this, but be sure to also check fares into BUR, LGB and SNA in addition to LAX.



Yeah, I already watch all the nearby ones, but 9/10 LAX is cheapest. Apr we went to SNA because for once, it was cheaper.


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## cindi (May 15, 2013)

WalnutBaron said:


> Previous posters have variously called this "the market" and "gouging". The correct answer is that it's both. I have a friend who works for Delta and I asked him what's going on with the Bismarck-Orlando route. His answer was interesting:
> 
> 1. North Dakota is a market which--thanks to the booming oil fracking industry there--has a great deal of disposable income and, along with it, high demand for air travel to the South and the West.
> 
> ...



Thank you for taking the time to find out what the situation actually is here.  And that makes total sense.  And totally sucks.

We are seeing a lot of undesirable changes in our area and not gonna change for the foreseeable future. 

Airfare has always been relatively high compared to other states because we have always had a lack of competition, but this is highway robbery.

I can't wait til some other airlines see the blood in the water. Oh, wait, that's sharks.......


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## cindi (May 15, 2013)

PigsDad said:


> Thanks for the post -- it does make sense that the oil boom could have an effect on the ticket prices in such a small market.
> 
> *Cindi *-- have you looked into flying out of Fargo?  Even MSP isn't that bad of a drive (but that would definitely add hotel before and after).  I have family in both Bismarck and close to Fargo, so I feel a little of your pain.  Luckily I have been able to use FF miles for some of our trips there, as the airfare (for a <2hr flight) is usually quite high.
> 
> Kurt



I have on occasion driven to Minneapolis if I could save enough on the airfare (once I saved $1600!) but last I checked MSP was ridiculously high as well.  Plus sometimes you just can't add on 2 days to a trip, like this one, already taking GS out of school.


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## Jimster (May 15, 2013)

*consolidation*

For those of you who welcomed airline consolidation, now you see some of the effect.


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## x3 skier (May 15, 2013)

Actually, the "Bismark situation" while new to that location, is SOP for hub captive locations and has been for years. As an example, CVG (Cincinnati) is essentially captive to Delta with almost zero competition and has some of the highest airfares in the country and has been that way for decades. Lots of people drive to DAY (Dayton) for some significant savings since traffic there is almost totally split around Delta, Useless Air, Air Tran and American. Frontier recently gave up and left. 

Any business charges the highest price they can that moves the product and unfortunately, this is playing out more and more as airline competition is reduced. Flying isn't going to get cheaper for anybody long term. 

New entrants in a market will temporarily reduce prices but since fixed and variable costs are close to the same for everybody, and the airlines seem to finally have decided it is stupid to continuously lose money, the price of a ticket will go up eventually. Buying market share is akin to the old saying, loosing money on every sale but making it up on volume. The airlines used to think that was a sound business practice for some unfathomable reason but not in recent times so prices are rising to the point of actually becoming profitable like back in ancient times when prices were regulated by the US Government. 

Cheers


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