# What happens when Deeds Expire?



## drepublic (Dec 20, 2019)

I've thought about DVC for a long time...I thought that if I were to own anywhere it would be a resale contract at Beach Club (for the pools and location), but what happens 2042 when the Deeds Expire?

Another strategy I thought about is buying the lowest cost/point DVC resale contract I could find to stay in 1 Bedroom for a week, but how easy is it to book other 1 Bedroom's at 7 months out?

How easy it it to book Aulani 7 months out at Thanksgiving/Christmas/Springs Break or the summer??


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## TheHolleys87 (Dec 20, 2019)

The short and simple answer to the expiration question is that the owners at that resort are no longer owners. They can’t use those points to make DVC reservations, and they don’t pay MFs for those points. The property reverts to Disney, who can do what they want with it, including creating an entirely new points chart and selling points there as if it were an entirely new resort. 

No one knows the details, such as whether there will be restrictions on banking and borrowing for some period of time before expiration, whether other owners will be restricted from swapping in for some period of time, whether points received at start of UY during the calendar year before will be pro-rated (for instance, our UY begins September 1 - on September 1, 2041 will we receive our full 300 points or only 5/12 of 300, to be used by January 31, 2042?), etc. 

Re your other question re availability, 1 bedrooms have tended to be the last to book, so easier to swap into at 7 months than studios and even 2 bedrooms. However it has become more difficult to swap as the number of owners increases, so the general advice is to buy where you wouldn’t mind staying if you couldn’t swap out. 

However, the 2021 points charts show a reallocation of points across seasons, and many think that it’s just the first in a multi-year process of reallocation to reduce demand at some seasons (particularly “Fall Frenzy”) and shift to others thereby evening out demand. 

This thread from DISboards is a look-back at availability over the last few years, and you might find it helpful. https://www.disboards.com/threads/predicted-dvc-booking-patterns-studios-1-bd-2-bd-charts-september-2019-2-bd-added.3689931/


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## Dean (Dec 21, 2019)

drepublic said:


> I've thought about DVC for a long time...I thought that if I were to own anywhere it would be a resale contract at Beach Club (for the pools and location), but what happens 2042 when the Deeds Expire?
> 
> Another strategy I thought about is buying the lowest cost/point DVC resale contract I could find to stay in 1 Bedroom for a week, but how easy is it to book other 1 Bedroom's at 7 months out?
> 
> How easy it it to book Aulani 7 months out at Thanksgiving/Christmas/Springs Break or the summer??


As noted, the resorts will revert back to DVD (DVC developer).  If they are extended, DVC's track record would suggest it'll be at a very high cost and if the OKW extension is any indication, it'll be over priced retail like the new resorts are.  

1 BR have historically been the easiest to reserve and the worst value.  Contractually they have an obligation to even out demand and rebalance the points, one they've been lax in over the years.  I do believe they are catching up in that area.  

As for buying elsewhere and booking at 7 months, it's hit or miss.  I can't speak to availability at 7 months for Aulani but those are very busy times, esp Easter and Xmas.  Personally I'm OK with any of the resorts for WDW so owning at say SSR and booking elsewhere would be something I would be comfortable with but others may not be.  That said we currently own BWV & AKV having sold off our OKW points years ago.  IMO BCV is one of the lowest values in terms of cost across WDW.  It's a higher cost compared to most, expires in 2042 & is more points overall than BWV with no views to speak of.  But for someone set on staying there most trips and can afford it (pay cash), I don't think it's worth buying something cheaper trying to get there every time.


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## heathpack (Dec 21, 2019)

For many years, I think your strategy of buying a less expensive resort and trading into a more expensive resort would have worked ok.  In fact, this was a huge benefit of the system as DVC sold it.

But, in addition to Dean’s observation that more DVC members = more internal trading = less availability at popular resorts, there is another factor which I think should cause one to think hard before adopting this strategy- namely, DVC has signaled recently that they are exploring changes to the internal trading paradigm.  The resale restriction on Riveria is the change I’m referring to, but if that’s a success we should expect additional changes if the future.  

None of us can know what those changes might be, but realize that all the “grandfathering” of benefits could stop, or be changed in the future, or there could be unforeseen restrictions on internal trading.

Due to this uncertainty, I think more than ever you should buy at a DVC resort you’d be happy to stay at most of the time, if push came to shove.  It will certainly make booking your stays easier, even if no further restrictions on internal trading with resales are ever put in place.


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## drepublic (Dec 21, 2019)

heathpack said:


> Due to this uncertainty, I think more than ever you should buy at a DVC resort you’d be happy to stay at most of the time, if push came to shove.  It will certainly make booking your stays easier, even if no further restrictions on internal trading with resales are ever put in place.



I’m limited like many to kids school schedules so I’ll be traveling at peak times.  I ran I to this with Wyndham at Clearwater and now own there to get what I want when I want it, but I have to book it 13 months out to get what I want for my kids Spring Break as there are only 100 units or so.

I just like the location and pools of Beachclub and regret not spending a few days their at just the resort in my last trip.  My kids will get Season Passes to Disney for Christmas and we own at Bonnet Creek and can get great large multi bedrooms but there’s  something to be said for stumbling back to your Beachclub room after a few drinks at Epcot...and the pools...we’re a Beach and Waterpark family.

I just might be better off for the long term networking with a Beachclub owner who really likes this Sunset view at Clearwater or who could rent me points...as I’m not to fond of that expiration date...but hell...I may be too old to care t that point...I’m 39.

I think of Timeshare’s like cars that have zero value when done with them...just creating memories in the meantime.







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## TheHolleys87 (Dec 21, 2019)

drepublic said:


> I’m limited like many to kids school schedules so I’ll be traveling at peak times.  I ran I to this with Wyndham at Clearwater and now own there to get what I want when I want it, but I have to book it 13 months out to get what I want for my kids Spring Break as there are only 100 units or so.
> 
> I just like the location and pools of Beachclub and regret not spending a few days their at just the resort in my last trip.  My kids will get Season Passes to Disney for Christmas and we own at Bonnet Creek and can get great large multi bedrooms but there’s  something to be said for stumbling back to your Beachclub room after a few drinks at Epcot...and the pools...we’re a Beach and Waterpark family.
> 
> ...


Wow, your photo makes me wish we owned at BCV instead of BWV! I’d be tempted to swap! 

Your idea of networking with a BCV owner is a good one. I’ve read a number of posts reporting mutually beneficial long term relationships between DVC owners and renters here and on the other boards I frequent.


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## drepublic (Dec 21, 2019)

TheHolleys87 said:


> Wow, your photo makes me wish we owned at BCV instead of BWV! I’d be tempted to swap!
> 
> Your idea of networking with a BCV owner is a good one. I’ve read a number of posts reporting mutually beneficial long term relationships between DVC owners and renters here and on the other boards I frequent.



Yeah I’d even come out on the wrong side of a reasonable deal at Beachclub...like 5 nights Sun-Friday 1 Bedroom Beachclub for 2 Bedroom Presidential at Wyndham Clearwater anytime of year Sun-Friday...as there is no “value season” at Clearwater.  It’s always expensive.  






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## capjak (Dec 21, 2019)

The originals like Beach Club all expire in 22 years (2042).  I own Beach Club and have decided to hold to expiration most likely as I will have grandchildren that will enjoy the location and in 22 years my kids will probably not want it and I will be 80 so will use other options at that point.   If you will go every year or EOY for the next 22 years...just buy Beach club or rent and do not worry about expiration, assuming the cost is not an issue....

In regards to availability at 7 months, depending on time of year the "hot resorts" like BCV, BWV, Bay Lake, tend to have limited availability.  Saratoga springs is almost always available in some room size and for now Aulani has good availability most times of the year.


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## capjak (Dec 21, 2019)

BCV 1 bedroom in magic season (spring break) for sunday-Friday is 189 points and can be rented by the owner (me) for $2650 to $3200 (MF of 1350), so that would be the value for a DVC owner.  It would rent in a week to a few days (very liquid for a timeshare).  Also Sun-Friday vs Frid/Sat point values have been adjusted by DVC such that there is not the huge premium there used to be as they found no one was booking weekends at the resorts so that has changed (only 5 point difference on Friday/Saturday nights).


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## ljmiii (Dec 22, 2019)

drepublic said:


> I've thought about DVC for a long time...I thought that if I were to own anywhere it would be a resale contract at Beach Club (for the pools and location), but what happens 2042 when the Deeds Expire?


Many years ago I bought resale at BCV for basically the same reasons - we loved the pools and the location and we needed to stay Christmas/President's/Easter weeks. That plus we *loved* our 3 generation visit to WDW in a 2BR, knew we wanted to stay at WDW year after year with or without the grandparents, and did NOT want to ever pay cash for a DVC villa again. Or stay with kids in a 'normal' Disney hotel room.

That said, over the past year I've sold all but 30 points of our BCV points. 1/31/2042 is coming like a freight train, we still have points at Bay Lake Tower, and I figure I can always rent a stay from an owner at BCV, Boardwalk, or even Riviera if we need one. So while I completely understand the attraction of BCV, I can't recommend buying there anymore unless you have the money to enjoy your ownership.



drepublic said:


> Another strategy I thought about is buying the lowest cost/point DVC resale contract I could find to stay in 1 Bedroom for a week, but how easy is it to book other 1 Bedroom's at 7 months out?


I can only tell you that we own at BLT because we were 'shut out' twice in our attempts to use our BCV points to stay at BLT during President's and Easter weeks. Even though everyone told us that 1BRs were easy to get if you booked at exactly 7 months out...a statement which is even less true today.



drepublic said:


> How easy it it to book Aulani 7 months out at Thanksgiving/Christmas/Springs Break or the summer??


Spring Break and Summer aren't that difficult for Aulani at 7 months - particularly for 1BRs. I haven't really heard much about Thanksgiving but Christmas is tough. That said, I'm sure the usage pattern for Aulani will change as it sells out (however slowly).


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## drepublic (Dec 23, 2019)

I just had an idea and this is sort of random but follow my logic here as I got this idea from DVC Owners in how they handle Universal Studios...the concept of "burning a room."  I'm just thinking of applying this concept to Disney Value Resorts for 60 day fast pass bookings.

As mentioned earlier we are owners of Wyndham and owners at Bonnet Creek inside the Disney parks where we can book large Presidential Suites and 2 Bedrooms with ease.  Even so...at Universal Studios there is a CLEAR advantage to stay in one of the express hotels in that your room key becomes the express pass...you'll just pay premium for the hotel room and give up a kitchen and so forth at your offsite resort....but you get the express pass that costs more than the hotel room for a family of 4.  Now this past Thankgiving I had a Presidential Suite booked 7 nights through Thanksgiving Week. 

At Universal Studios the Express Pass (hotel room key) works the day you check in and the day you check out and you can check in at 7 am while they hold your luggage...they just text you later in the day when your room is ready.  Also you can get 5 rooms keys per room (each person's name goes on a room key).

You can EASILY do Universal studios in two days.  So I found the cheapest express pass hotel room I could and booked one night in the middle of our Thanksgiving week.  We packed a single overnight bag for all of us and left Bonnet Creek around 8 am just after 9 am we were inside Universal Studios parks while Loews Portifino Bay held our luggage.  Around 4:30 pm I got a text that my room was ready...and I gave my family the option of just not staying there and going back to Bonnet Creek...but they opted for stay so we did...and the next morning we checked out while the hotel held our luggage and spent all day in the parks again.

Short story is we enjoyed the express pass for 2 days for the cost of 1 night's stay in an express hotel.  Express pass at Universal Studios can cost >$100 per person per day so it's like getting expresses passes 1/2 off.

No applying this concept to Disney...my thinking is I could "burn a night" at a value hotel using my season pass discount just to book fast passes 60 days out, as that is a solid advantage of staying at a Disney hotel while I could enjoy the amenities of Bonnet Creek.  I'm not to sure but you guys would know...would I be able to book fast passes for the day I check in and the day I check out? 

I wouldn't mind paying $150 for a room getting Fast Passes at 60 days out for 2 days at the parks if I could keep my current ammenties at Bonnet Creek...or maybe just squeeze a night between Bonnet Creek stays just so I'm already in Orlando and can have two full days at the parks.  I know I wouldn't have the Disney Transportation I'd rather drive to the parks and pay premium parking if I'm in a hurry than take Disney's transportation (or Bonnet Creeks transportation).


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## drepublic (Dec 23, 2019)

ljmiii said:


> 1/31/2042 is coming like a freight train, we still have points at Bay Lake Tower, and I figure I can always rent a stay from an owner at BCV, Boardwalk, or even Riviera if we need one. So while I completely understand the attraction of BCV, I can't recommend buying there anymore unless you have the money to enjoy your ownership.



Noted...and I'm considering renting from a BCV owner for 2020 while I have the Annual Pass.


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## PcflEZFlng (Dec 23, 2019)

ljmiii said:


> Spring Break and Summer aren't that difficult for Aulani at 7 months - particularly for 1BRs.


My experience two years ago didn't reflect this. I tried to book a 1BR stay at Aulani in summer using my points (from BCV incidentally), and it was impossible. For weeks leading up to the time of my planned vacation, I watched all availability vanish at exactly the 7-month mark. I had to give up on it.

BTW, I sold my BCV contract this year partly due to the approaching expiration.


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## paxsarah (Dec 23, 2019)

drepublic said:


> I know I wouldn't have the Disney Transportation I'd rather drive to the parks and pay premium parking if I'm in a hurry than take Disney's transportation


You would have free regular parking at the parks on both your check-in and check-out days of your throwaway night. You would pay to park at the Disney resort, though.


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## TheHolleys87 (Dec 23, 2019)

drepublic said:


> No applying this concept to Disney...my thinking is I could "burn a night" at a value hotel using my season pass discount just to book fast passes 60 days out, as that is a solid advantage of staying at a Disney hotel while I could enjoy the amenities of Bonnet Creek. I'm not to sure but you guys would know...would I be able to book fast passes for the day I check in and the day I check out?



Yes, you could book FPs 60 days out for day of check-in and day of check-out.  Just don't cancel the value hotel reservation - if you do, Disney will cancel those FPs.

And if you want premium parking at the parks, you can just pay the difference between that and regular parking.


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## drepublic (Dec 23, 2019)

paxsarah said:


> You would have free regular parking at the parks on both your check-in and check-out days of your throwaway night. You would pay to park at the Disney resort, though.



Would have I have to pay to park at Disney resort if I didn't park there?  I can imagine the people who get the Disney Shuttle from the Airport and do not have a car to park.  It seems like they wouldn't have to pay parking if they didn't actually park there.


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## drepublic (Dec 23, 2019)

TheHolleys87 said:


> Yes, you could book FPs 60 days out for day of check-in and day of check-out.  Just don't cancel the value hotel reservation - if you do, Disney will cancel those FPs.
> 
> And if you want premium parking at the parks, you can just pay the difference between that and regular parking.



That's right I think I get free parking with my Annual Pass at the Parks.  We frequent Disney Springs and like eating dinner there. I can see us just hitting 3 fast passes and a few rides with a character dinner for breakfast or lunch and then leaving the parks mid afternoon.  We're not exactly "rope droppers" and though we have spend all day at the parks it does get exhausting multiple days.


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## cbyrne1174 (Dec 23, 2019)

The way that fast passes are, it really isn't like express passes. They have categories. For example, you can either get one for Rocknroller coaster OR Slinky dog, but you can't have both 60 days out. You would be better off just waking up early and hitting the busiest ones at rope drop.


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## ljmiii (Dec 23, 2019)

drepublic said:


> Would have I have to pay to park at Disney resort if I didn't park there?


No. Many people stay at Disney Resorts without a car...they are used to it.


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## ljmiii (Dec 23, 2019)

drepublic said:


> I just had an idea...the concept of "burning a room.”


It is very much a Disney concept as well. 2 days of 60 day fastpasses for the price of a room. Or ideally a campsite - Fastpasses for up to 8 people for 2 days for a very attractive price.


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## paxsarah (Dec 23, 2019)

drepublic said:


> Would have I have to pay to park at Disney resort if I didn't park there?  I can imagine the people who get the Disney Shuttle from the Airport and do not have a car to park.  It seems like they wouldn't have to pay parking if they didn't actually park there.



A way to ensure that you wouldn't have to would be to book your throwaway night at the campsites at Fort Wilderness, rather than a value resort - but only if you really didn't plan to sleep there.

If you booked a value and actually drove to the hotel, they would have no way to know that you weren't going to park there overnight. And if you booked a value but never stepped foot on the hotel property, then there's no reason not to just get a campsite instead, since they're cheaper and offer the same benefits (2 days of 60-day fastpasses, 2 days of free parks parking, magic bands for your party).


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## Dean (Dec 23, 2019)

I know several people that use DVC for a studio while staying off site to get fast passes, the dining plan, parking and for a place to take a rest/swim.


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## TheHolleys87 (Dec 24, 2019)

Re parking at the value resort:  people have reported being charged for parking when they don't have a car and not being charged when they do have a car.  Disney is good about removing charges for parking when notified that the guest didn't have a car.


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## drepublic (Dec 24, 2019)

paxsarah said:


> And if you booked a value but never stepped foot on the hotel property, then there's no reason not to just get a campsite instead, since they're cheaper and offer the same benefits (2 days of 60-day fastpasses, 2 days of free parks parking, magic bands for your party).



This may be the way to go right here...  We have magic bands so I'm wondering if check in is automatic or do I have to physically drive to campsite to check in?

I can see my family doing Disney a few days in the middle of a week long stay at Bonnet Creek Presidential rooms where we are already in Orlando and can just head straight to the parks after checking in the the campsite (maybe remotely?) or value hotel booked with Disney Annual Pass discount. 

If I pony up and physically stay at a Disney resort I might just rent from a DVC owner and it would be to enjoy the resort pools or experiences or for location so more than likely Beachclub or Animal Kingdom and put it at the beginning or end of a Bonnet Creek Stay...like I'd love to be at Beachclub New Years Eve for example just to hit Epcot Fireworks and Restaurants and stumble back to the room.


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## bendadin (Dec 25, 2019)

DVC stay or WDW hotel stay: day FP, extra magic hours, and free parking AT THE PARKS. So if you book a room, you get that for check in and check out. However, you can book at day 60 and day 59. But someone who is staying a week can pick up those FP at your day 67 because of the length of stay. So FoP etc are still really tough to get. And what you can get, you can probably get at 30 days out.

As for DVC ownership: You can buy Gold AP as a non-Florida resident. I have a very small direct contract. I sold my resales, not because I wasn't grandfathered because I was, but because it is really difficult to book anything outside of your home resort. And then my kids started staying at the bigger units at Bonnet Creek, Star Island and Reunion and they don't want to stay four or five in a studio.


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## paxsarah (Dec 25, 2019)

bendadin said:


> However, you can book at day 60 and day 59.



You’re correct about the rest but it’s day 60 and 61 (ie book at 60 days for day 60 and 61).


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## cbyrne1174 (Dec 25, 2019)

I've been able to get avatar and toy story fast passes 30 days out as just an annual pass holder, I would just check it every day. If you are there at rope drop, the wait isn't that bad for the new attractions either. You are probably better off booking SSR through RCI than a single night at the campgrounds.


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## paxsarah (Dec 26, 2019)

cbyrne1174 said:


> You are probably better off booking SSR through RCI than a single night at the campgrounds.



That really depends on one’s goal. All in, using Wyndham points for an exchange that SSR week will cost in the neighborhood of $1,000, but it will get a week of 60-day fastpasses and an actual place to stay. That’s a completely different calculus than a single night at a campsite for $100-150 and 2 days of benefits while staying someplace else. We do SSR, but that’s because that’s actually where we want to sleep each night.


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## Theiggy (Dec 28, 2019)

drepublic said:


> This may be the way to go right here... We have magic bands so I'm wondering if check in is automatic or do I have to physically drive to campsite to check in?
> 
> I can see my family doing Disney a few days in the middle of a week long stay at Bonnet Creek Presidential rooms where we are already in Orlando and can just head straight to the parks after checking in the the campsite (maybe remotely?) or value hotel booked with Disney Annual Pass discount.
> 
> If I pony up and physically stay at a Disney resort I might just rent from a DVC owner and it would be to enjoy the resort pools or experiences or for location so more than likely Beachclub or Animal Kingdom and put it at the beginning or end of a Bonnet Creek Stay...like I'd love to be at Beachclub New Years Eve for example just to hit Epcot Fireworks and Restaurants and stumble back to the room.



I don’t know if this helps but you seem to really enjoy the location of Beach Club, I do too but am too cheap to fork up the big bucks. I like to stay at the Walt Disney World Dolphin (or Swan). It’s half the cost of BCV, and while it’s only a hotel room, you get almost all the perks - extra magic hours, fast passes at 60 days. And you can easily walk back to the room after a few at Epcot!The only thing you can’t do is get meal plan or charge to your room from the parks. Oh and no Magical Express but I think those are fair trade offs for price. Maybe this is an option for you? 


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## mich1073 (Jan 1, 2020)

paxsarah said:


> A way to ensure that you wouldn't have to would be to book your throwaway night at the campsites at Fort Wilderness, rather than a value resort - but only if you really didn't plan to sleep there.
> 
> If you booked a value and actually drove to the hotel, they would have no way to know that you weren't going to park there overnight. And if you booked a value but never stepped foot on the hotel property, then there's no reason not to just get a campsite instead, since they're cheaper and offer the same benefits (2 days of 60-day fastpasses, 2 days of free parks parking, magic bands for your party).


The biggest reason not to just book a campsite is because half the resort has no one and us campers can not get all the days we want when site sit there unused for days.  You will not be charged parking at a value if you don't check in. Or check in via the app. 

But really please stop telling people just to book a campsite. I know you could give two poops about others but seriously stop it. Campers have a super tough time enjoying the campgrounds for the stay they want. At least values there are 6 of them and plenty of rooms to hog that you don't use.

I been camping at FW a couple times a year since the late 70s and what ghost campers are doing to it is maddening. Also disney will never add in to the campgrounds... I also don't live that far, so we do bonnet creek and several others too. But please leave the campgrounds to campers...


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## paxsarah (Jan 1, 2020)

mich1073 said:


> The biggest reason not to just book a campsite is because half the resort has no one and us campers can not get all the days we want when site sit there unused for days.  You will not be charged parking at a value if you don't check in. Or check in via the app.
> 
> But really please stop telling people just to book a campsite. I know you could give two poops about others but seriously stop it. Campers have a super tough time enjoying the campgrounds for the stay they want. At least values there are 6 of them and plenty of rooms to hog that you don't use.
> 
> I been camping at FW a couple times a year since the late 70s and what ghost campers are doing to it is maddening. Also disney will never add in to the campgrounds... I also don't live that far, so we do bonnet creek and several others too. But please leave the campgrounds to campers...



Point taken, and I've never booked a throwaway reservation myself. But I don't see how people who book throwaway reservations are booking something an actual camper couldn't have booked themselves. As a Wyndham owner, I see people (mostly on Facebook) complaining that they can't book what they want, but not because they try to book at their earliest availability (which for Wyndham is 10 months in advance or 13 months with advance priority), but because they're waiting and it's booked up. As I understand with Disney room-only (or campsite-only) reservations as with Wyndham points bookings, there's no penalty for booking early and then cancelling with adequate notice if the dates don't work. (You might be tying up a deposit but you'd also get it back with an early cancellation.) So I really don't feel a lot of personal guilt advising someone to book (and pay Disney's going rates for) a single night at a campground when anyone could have booked that at any point earlier than that person. I know with Wyndham, if what I want is already booked up and it's closer than 10 months in advance, I blame myself for not booking earlier, not other owners for beating me to the punch. Admittedly, I don't know when Disney's campsites are fully booked and maybe it's insanely early. But unless they fill up the first day bookings become available, those sites are available to everyone.


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## Dean (Jan 2, 2020)

mich1073 said:


> The biggest reason not to just book a campsite is because half the resort has no one and us campers can not get all the days we want when site sit there unused for days.  You will not be charged parking at a value if you don't check in. Or check in via the app.
> 
> But really please stop telling people just to book a campsite. I know you could give two poops about others but seriously stop it. Campers have a super tough time enjoying the campgrounds for the stay they want. At least values there are 6 of them and plenty of rooms to hog that you don't use.
> 
> I been camping at FW a couple times a year since the late 70s and what ghost campers are doing to it is maddening. Also disney will never add in to the campgrounds... I also don't live that far, so we do bonnet creek and several others too. But please leave the campgrounds to campers...


The reality is that every time we book a reservation we're potentially blocking someone else.  We are truly in competition with each other, esp with DVC.  I don't see any difference between a campsite, DVC room or anything else.  Maybe we book a 2 BR for 2 people or book a studio for value AKV, standard BWV or VGF.  I've seen many with DVC book value resorts for free dining or those who own DVC and other timeshares book a studio just for a respite, pool access, free parking and for a Dining Plan.  Or maybe we book the most sought after options for rental.  IMO they are all the same and all OK.


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## mich1073 (Jan 2, 2020)

Dean said:


> The reality is that every time we book a reservation we're potentially blocking someone else.  We are truly in competition with each other, esp with DVC.  I don't see any difference between a campsite, DVC room or anything else.  Maybe we book a 2 BR for 2 people or book a studio for value AKV, standard BWV or VGF.  I've seen many with DVC book value resorts for free dining or those who own DVC and other timeshares book a studio just for a respite, pool access, free parking and for a Dining Plan.  Or maybe we book the most sought after options for rental.  IMO they are all the same and all OK.



While I get any time you book you block someone.. There is a HUGE difference between less than 100 tent sites (which are the cheapest) and 6 FULL value resorts. There are times I see parents with kids wanting to book a tent site because it all they can afford, and guess what they can't. Because they can cook their own food, etc.. It can make a huge diffence for families. I could see if the price difference was something huge, but it isn't. Most times values are actually cheaper than most of the campsites or about the same price. The Premium meadows sites average 140-200 a night to bring you own house.

I get you could care less about the ones trying to book, but not everyone that camps plans 499 days out. But most campsites are booked well before 300 days out.

Trust me, ghost campsites are a HUGE issue because that many single night reservations block us from booking the amount of days we actually want. Its not just one of you..... Its say the 50 of you a night that do it, now do you see the problem? We only get say 3 of the 5 days we want and we drive around the campsite and see empty sites everywhere.....


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## CPNY (Jan 2, 2020)

bendadin said:


> DVC stay or WDW hotel stay: day FP, extra magic hours, and free parking AT THE PARKS. So if you book a room, you get that for check in and check out. However, you can book at day 60 and day 59. But someone who is staying a week can pick up those FP at your day 67 because of the length of stay. So FoP etc are still really tough to get. And what you can get, you can probably get at 30 days out.
> 
> As for DVC ownership: You can buy Gold AP as a non-Florida resident. I have a very small direct contract. I sold my resales, not because I wasn't grandfathered because I was, but because it is really difficult to book anything outside of your home resort. And then my kids started staying at the bigger units at Bonnet Creek, Star Island and Reunion and they don't want to stay four or five in a studio.


Help me understand, you can book FP at day 67 because you stay for a week? I thought if you stay in property you can book FP at 60 day to each day you’re a guest? So you can book a full week at 60 days to your first check in day? I always thought (I admit I never do the FP bookings) that you had to book each day as each 60 day, not all 7 days at once.


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## Dean (Jan 2, 2020)

mich1073 said:


> While I get any time you book you block someone.. There is a HUGE difference between less than 100 tent sites (which are the cheapest) and 6 FULL value resorts. There are times I see parents with kids wanting to book a tent site because it all they can afford, and guess what they can't. Because they can cook their own food, etc.. It can make a huge diffence for families. I could see if the price difference was something huge, but it isn't. Most times values are actually cheaper than most of the campsites or about the same price. The Premium meadows sites average 140-200 a night to bring you own house.
> 
> I get you could care less about the ones trying to book, but not everyone that camps plans 499 days out. But most campsites are booked well before 300 days out.
> 
> Trust me, ghost campsites are a HUGE issue because that many single night reservations block us from booking the amount of days we actually want. Its not just one of you..... Its say the 50 of you a night that do it, now do you see the problem? We only get say 3 of the 5 days we want and we drive around the campsite and see empty sites everywhere.....


I don't really see a difference.  And it's not as large of a volume difference as you suggest partly because many of the discounts are limited and because it's availability compared to demand.  Just reserve when it comes online and it's unlikely one will have a problem.  Maybe they should institute a minimum stay policy.


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## paxsarah (Jan 2, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Help me understand, you can book FP at day 67 because you stay for a week? I thought if you stay in property you can book FP at 60 day to each day you’re a guest? So you can book a full week at 60 days to your first check in day? I always thought (I admit I never do the FP bookings) that you had to book each day as each 60 day, not all 7 days at once.



With an on-site stay, you can start booking fastpasses for your length of stay at 60 days prior to your check-in day - you can do them all at once. This differs from off-site fastpass booking, which is available at 30 days from each day - you would have to book each day individually in sequence.


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## CPNY (Jan 2, 2020)

paxsarah said:


> With an on-site stay, you can start booking fastpasses for your length of stay at 60 days prior to your check-in day - you can do them all at once. This differs from off-site fastpass booking, which is available at 30 days from each day - you would have to book each day individually in sequence.


Ahhh that’s why. So say I book a week stay. At 60 days to check in I can book FP for the whole week. Say I go ahead and cancel the first two days and keep the last few days of the stay. but I only have FP booked for the last few days of the stay? Would those FP stay? Deciding on a split week with a universal hotel.


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## mich1073 (Jan 2, 2020)

Dean said:


> I don't really see a difference.  And it's not as large of a volume difference as you suggest partly because many of the discounts are limited and because it's availability compared to demand.  Just reserve when it comes online and it's unlikely one will have a problem.  Maybe they should institute a minimum stay policy.


How many times have you stayed at FW to see? You don't see a problem because you never driven and seen the tons of empty sites and you can not book one. That's all.

Value resorts have 1000s of rooms and FW has maybe 100 tent sites which are the cheapest. Only two loops in all of FW are tent sites and both are small.

But I beating a dead horse. Maybe someone will read it and get it.


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## Dean (Jan 2, 2020)

mich1073 said:


> How many times have you stayed at FW to see? You don't see a problem because you never driven and seen the tons of empty sites and you can not book one. That's all.
> 
> Value resorts have 1000s of rooms and FW has maybe 100 tent sites which are the cheapest. Only two loops in all of FW are tent sites and both are small.
> 
> But I beating a dead horse. Maybe someone will read it and get it.


At FW a lot, no campsite stays but friends that stay several times a year; but you missed my point.  My point is it doesn't matter HOW restricted it is or how few there are, it's the principle that governs the issue.  They set the rules and people make the reservation under those rules.  If it's within the rules as Disney allows, it's fine.  Different people use them for different things.  Maybe it's to get access to other options, maybe it's the night before so they'll have a camping spot when they arrive the next morning or maybe they reserve and cancel last minute when they knew they likely wouldn't use it.  It doesn't matter if it's a difficult to get highly desirable DVC option and someone gets it and rents it out on the last campsite when you or I haven't called yet to reserve.  Now this assumes they do so within the rules but even when not (RCI renting of DVC) it doesn't hurt the DVC members but might some RCI members.  I don't have any issue with you emploring people not to do this but I do have a problem if people get upset at others that are following the rules in place.  Here's an example of a relatively similar issue.  The current Dining Plan rules allow one to pay for other meals but as written, this has not always been the case.  However, for many years the rules would not have allowed that but yet most restaurants would do so.  Their rules, their option to follow or not if they want.


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## brianfox (Jan 27, 2020)

*Regarding the original question: What happens when deeds expire*

22 years is a long ways off for the first deeds that expire, but I wonder at what point will those points become unsellable.  Ten years out?  Five years out?  No one says value will drop off right now, but it has to happen.


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## CPNY (Jan 28, 2020)

brianfox said:


> *Regarding the original question: What happens when deeds expire*
> 
> 22 years is a long ways off for the first deeds that expire, but I wonder at what point will those points become unsellable.  Ten years out?  Five years out?  No one says value will drop off right now, but it has to happen.


DVC will just exercise ROFR. I’d expect them to allow you to keep it for a fee or walk away. Who knows.


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## chalee94 (Jan 29, 2020)

brianfox said:


> *Regarding the original question: What happens when deeds expire*
> 
> 22 years is a long ways off for the first deeds that expire, but I wonder at what point will those points become unsellable.  Ten years out?  Five years out?  No one says value will drop off right now, but it has to happen.



Value will drop at some point, definitely.

But as long as purchase price + annual dues < total direct rental costs for the accommodations, there will be some value to the contracts.

The last year might be iffy as there will probably be issues with the transition but I definitely expect they will maintain some value until some point in the last few years.


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## chalee94 (Jan 29, 2020)

CPNY said:


> DVC will just exercise ROFR. I’d expect them to allow you to keep it for a fee or walk away. Who knows.



As owners found out in the Great Recession, Disney has little interest in ROFRing contracts with iffy economic value. (plus, ROFR requires you to get a bona fide offer first - if no one is willing to offer $10 per pt for a contract, ROFR can't come into play.)

in 2042, I am contractually guaranteed to be able to walk away. OKW owners "may" have the option to extend (since the ground lease is already extended - the question is still around the legality of that and how many owners will try to extend for free). But for other 2042 owners, it would simply be a matter of having to purchase a new resort contract (most likely featuring updated point charts and the Riviera contractual changes...plus whatever other options Disney management comes up with in the meantime.)


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## CPNY (Jan 29, 2020)

chalee94 said:


> As owners found out in the Great Recession, Disney has little interest in ROFRing contracts with iffy economic value. (plus, ROFR requires you to get a bona fide offer first - if no one is willing to offer $10 per pt for a contract, ROFR can't come into play.)
> 
> in 2042, I am contractually guaranteed to be able to walk away. OKW owners "may" have the option to extend (since the ground lease is already extended - the question is still around the legality of that and how many owners will try to extend for free). But for other 2042 owners, it would simply be a matter of having to purchase a new resort contract (most likely featuring updated point charts and the Riviera contractual changes...plus whatever other options Disney management comes up with in the meantime.)


Imagine being a DVC member then having to buy a new contract at top dollar. That would stink lol. Hopefully they will allow members the ability to pay a lot less than new customers


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## bnoble (Jan 29, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Hopefully they will allow members the ability to pay a lot less than new customers


You must be new to The Walt Disney Company...


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## Dean (Jan 29, 2020)

CPNY said:


> Imagine being a DVC member then having to buy a new contract at top dollar. That would stink lol. Hopefully they will allow members the ability to pay a lot less than new customers


As hinted at, DVC's track record is to the contrary.  The OKW extension, the only one offered so far, was at $15 per point ($25 pp then discounts) and my estimation of the value at the time was $7-8 pp which was born out in the difference in price resale over the follow few years.  They have offered discounts and incentives to current members but it's usually just early access and/or minor incentives.  I wouldn't expect much if anything and I think those that are assuming an extension are not doing so based on history, facts or reality though they may or may not.


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## Pathways (Jan 29, 2020)

At some point, this discussion will need to take a serious turn, but I believe it is still too early.   DVC will lose 100's of room all at once in 2042. Even if the underlying real estate is too valuable for timeshare usage, Disney can't possibly knock down that many buildings at once.

If they offer a renewal for 10-15 years, when do they offer it, and for how much?  Clearly they struck out on the OKW extension.  But that doesn't mean the concept won't work, their timing/pricing was just way off.

If they don't sell enough, can you picture the Beach Club with only 25% paying MF's?   Disney can't fill that many rooms year round on a cash basis to cover the shortfall.  They have already reduced the number of hotel rooms by turning some into DVC.

Will they continue to use MF reserves to fully renovate the units leading up to the last few years?  Or will they begin to look like a Quality Inn?

Same at the Boardwalk - I just can't see all those buildings sitting there empty, but yet based on the BW Inn, I can't see them filling it on a cash basis.

Wait until one of you number cruncher's in TUG figures the hit the DVC Corp will take just losing the management fees from all those rooms.  WOW!  Can you say 'layoffs'?

All that speculation will affect the pricing for resales as 2042 gets closer.  I would think Disney would have to publicize their plan by 2027 to get on top of the possible exit stampede.  15 years or less left and owners will start dumping to try and get some value if they truly believe it will all end in 2042.  Remember, the last year of occupancy for most is actually 2041.


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## Dean (Jan 29, 2020)

One of the issues they have is that they burned some bridges with OKW.  Thus giving something that's cheap would be problematic.  If they do offer something I suspect it'll be fairly late, like within the last 3-5 years but we'll see.


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## bnoble (Jan 29, 2020)

Pathways said:


> I would think Disney would have to publicize their plan by 2027 to get on top of the possible exit stampede. 15 years or less left and owners will start dumping to try and get some value if they truly believe it will all end in 2042. Remember, the last year of occupancy for most is actually 2041.


Disney does not care about an exit stampede. _Someone _will own those points and will pay maintenance on them. Even in the last year, the points will have positive value, as dues are well under cash rental rates even after prevailing discounts.

True, it would be hard to suddenly rent that much inventory for cash without disrupting the pricing structure across all of WDW's rental inventory. However, don't discount the possibility that these resorts simply close for a while, or at least parts of them will. I can easily imagine shuttering entire floors of BCV, BWV, and VWL; taking them out of service reduces the demand for front desk staff, etc. and there is no ongoing cleaning/maintenance on those units. While the management fee is nice, it is probably in the noise compared to the revenue from the cash resorts and can be done without if necessary. The asset is already "under-performing" because the bulk of the returns on investment are in sales, not in the management fee. Doing without it won't be that hard. There is also precedent: recall that a substantial chunk of Port Orleans was closed for a few years after 9/11.

Disney holds the cards here; they will be fine.


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## Pathways (Jan 29, 2020)

bnoble said:


> Disney does not care about an exit stampede. _Someone _will own those points and will pay maintenance on them.



They may not, but IMO they better.  With the Hawaii disaster, sales slower than anticipated at DRR, and the new one at the old river county (Reflections is it?) they can't afford the PR that will come with trying to sell new points at $230 plus and resales plummeting to $40.  And once they stop buying back and the brokers/buyers see that, price's will drop like a rock.

I agree the MF's will be paid until the last year, but as of 2042 it all stops. Again, I'm not a numbers cruncher but I'm sure somebody here or on DISboards will come up with the % of DVC gross receipts that will be gone all at once.


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## Dean (Jan 29, 2020)

Pathways said:


> They may not, but IMO they better.  With the Hawaii disaster, sales slower than anticipated at DRR, and the new one at the old river county (Reflections is it?) they can't afford the PR that will come with trying to sell new points at $230 plus and resales plummeting to $40.  And once they stop buying back and the brokers/buyers see that, price's will drop like a rock.
> 
> I agree the MF's will be paid until the last year, but as of 2042 it all stops. Again, I'm not a numbers cruncher but I'm sure somebody here or on DISboards will come up with the % of DVC gross receipts that will be gone all at once.


They'll have a plan to extract as much as possible from whatever they do.  Loyalty and past commitment will not enter in other than as it applies to the amount they can rake in.


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## ljmiii (Jan 30, 2020)

brianfox said:


> 22 years is a long ways off for the first deeds that expire, but I wonder at what point will those points become unsellable.  Ten years out?  Five years out?  No one says value will drop off right now, but it has to happen.


"Unsellable"...2040 or so. "When will prices plateau before falling?"...my guess is around 2022. The economics of owning vs renting for stays at 2042 resorts is becoming untenable. 

So buyers...or at least informed buyers...become limited to those who absolutely positively must stay at a particular time (e.g. Easter/Xmas) and want to do it at a particular resort. And have the means to make that happen while being insensitive to the anticipated loss.

BTW, '2042' is somewhat misleading since no 2042 points will be distributed (at least to current owners) and the party ends in Jan of 2042. So really 2041.


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## ljmiii (Jan 30, 2020)

Pathways said:


> At some point, this discussion will need to take a serious turn, but I believe it is still too early.   DVC will lose 100's of room all at once in 2042. Even if the underlying real estate is too valuable for timeshare usage, Disney can't possibly knock down that many buildings at once.


While the WDW 2042 resorts are beloved they are only 12.83% of the DVC points out there (counting Riviera). Not insignificant...but not all that significant either.


Pathways said:


> If they don't sell enough, can you picture the Beach Club with only 25% paying MF's?   Disney can't fill that many rooms year round on a cash basis to cover the shortfall...


Each resort is different. BCV is but a small part of the money making machine which is the Beach Club/Yacht Club - home to corporate events, weddings, and well heeled vacationers. I don't see DVD (or WDW after 2041) having any trouble renting out those rooms. Similarly, I don't see DVD having much trouble selling new 2092 BWV contracts given the location. All they need is a new underlying lease - no need to knock down anything. BRV is more of a problem child - the MK resort not on the Monorail (nor walkable to anything). But it is tiny - only 2.55% of DVC.


Pathways said:


> All that speculation will affect the pricing for resales as 2042 gets closer.  I would think Disney would have to publicize their plan by 2027 to get on top of the possible exit stampede.  15 years or less left and owners will start dumping to try and get some value if they truly believe it will all end in 2042.


For every seller there will be willing buyer through 2040-ish - the only question is price. And as we've seen, DVD has come to regard the potential of falling resale prices as a non-issue (to them).


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## bnoble (Jan 30, 2020)

ljmiii said:


> "Unsellable"...2040 or so.


As long as there is a spread between prevailing rental rates and dues, there will be *some* value, even if it is just someone buying for a single vacation. Just nowhere near what it is now.


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## Dean (Jan 30, 2020)

bnoble said:


> As long as there is a spread between prevailing rental rates and dues, there will be *some* value, even if it is just someone buying for a single vacation. Just nowhere near what it is now.


When you factor in the time delay and uncertainty I would suspect it's going to be at least 2-3 years before the end when it's going to be not feasible to sell.


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## Pathways (Jan 30, 2020)

ljmiii said:


> While the WDW 2042 resorts are beloved they are only 12.83% of the DVC points out there (counting Riviera). Not insignificant...but not all that significant either.




Huge thank you for providing those numbers.  That gives a much better starting point for discussions


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