# Brexit?



## CO skier (Jun 24, 2016)

A vote of "No Confidence" for a Prime Minister is one thing and power changes to the other side.

A vote of "No Confidence" in a currency for an economy of Great Britain's stature seems really bad. Who will hold up the Euro now? Germany? France? For how long?

I don't think the Fed will be raising interest rates anytime soon.

The polls less than 24 hours ago predicted no Brexit. That just goes to show how much opinion polls are worth.

ETA: For long term bond investors (3-10 years), if the British pound reaches USD $1.25 in what is sure to be some crazy days ahead, that would be a great time to invest in pound-denominated bonds. (This is just an idea and not investment advice. Consult a professional investment advisor.)


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## PStreet1 (Jun 24, 2016)

The decisions of the EU haven't been popular in Britain for a long time--guess enough of them reached the fed-up stage.  Perhaps it will cause the EU to reconsider some of its policies because that pretty much leaves Germany footing the bills for keeping the currency afloat--and there is a strong anti-EU group in Germany also, nothing like the strength of the movement in Britain, but still something Merkel has to consider.

Will Scotland vote again on remaining part of Britain?  The EU?


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## VacationForever (Jun 24, 2016)

My personal opinion is that Europe needs to institute borders between countries again (in other words: death of EU) to contain movement of ISIS terrorists across countries.


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## Ken555 (Jun 24, 2016)

sptung said:


> My personal opinion is that Europe needs to institute borders between countries again (in other words: death of EU) to contain movement of ISIS terrorists across countries.





They don't have the infrastructure for this any longer. It would be extremely expensive, and isn't likely to be effective, based on all the experts I've read and heard on the topic.


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## Passepartout (Jun 24, 2016)

Fasten your seatbelts, and batten the hatches. It's gonna be a rough ride for a while.

Jim


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## dioxide45 (Jun 24, 2016)

Financial markets don't like change and uncertainty. So they will definitely take a big hit today. However, Britain has always maintained its own currency. So it would seem they never really had confidence in the Euro. With that, I don't think that Brittain has ever helped to prop up the Euro. The weight of that has long been on Germany.

I think the main concert for markets will be additional referendums for countries to leave the EU. Of course, the current vote is non binding and it would take years for Brittain to negotiate its exit from the EU. Markets will stabilize again. The biggest hit will to the free trade of goods between Brittain and the other EU countries. This may backfire on Brittain.


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## bobpark56 (Jun 24, 2016)

*How hot is your hot button?*



CO skier said:


> The polls less than 24 hours ago predicted no Brexit. That just goes to show how much opinion polls are worth.



Folks opposed to unconstrained immigration feel very strongly about it. They vote. Folks in favor...not as much into it, unless they are political activists. Not as many vote. Polls do not account for this.

Now let's see what happens in the U.S.


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## SMHarman (Jun 24, 2016)

PStreet1 said:


> The decisions of the EU haven't been popular in Britain for a long time--guess enough of them reached the fed-up stage.  Perhaps it will cause the EU to reconsider some of its policies because that pretty much leaves Germany footing the bills for keeping the currency afloat--and there is a strong anti-EU group in Germany also, nothing like the strength of the movement in Britain, but still something Merkel has to consider.
> 
> Will Scotland vote again on remaining part of Britain?  The EU?


The UK was never responsible for keeping the currency afloat. 

They just threw away a great grandfathered deal for an uncertain future deal that will likely cost more and come with major conditions (E.g. Single currency) should they attempt to rejoin.


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## SMHarman (Jun 24, 2016)

sptung said:


> My personal opinion is that Europe needs to institute borders between countries again (in other words: death of EU) to contain movement of ISIS terrorists across countries.


My personal opinion is the US should Institute borders between the states to contain movement of ISIS terrorists across the states.


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## Roger830 (Jun 24, 2016)

SMHarman said:


> My personal opinion is the US should Institute borders between the states to contain movement of ISIS terrorists across the states.



It would be nice if we had borders between countries.


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## ace2000 (Jun 24, 2016)

Seems like the world is turning into one big mess right now...  not sure who to blame?


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## taterhed (Jun 24, 2016)

SMHarman said:


> My personal opinion is the US should Institute borders between the states to contain movement of ISIS terrorists across the states.



I love droll British humor... 

 I think the pound is headed quite a bit south (maybe even $1!!!) unless further events break the trend.  Who knows?  My crystal ball is cloudy.

 The real question?  Cameron has called the bluff, will Parliament allow the exit, or merely placate the masses while forestalling the 'annulment'' of this precarious union? Again, who knows?

 I will say this:  that lovely London dinner of iced wodka,  pate with truffles, Iberico ham with risotto and Chianti--followed by Belgian chocolates and a glass of port....    just got very, very, very much more expensive. 

 Oh, and as Brits, I'd consider buying a Jaguar....tofs that you all are...next year instead of that new Merc.   I think you'll find it a bit less dear.


 Oh....let me keep this less political and more 'timeshare oriented...'
 I think the resale price of timeshares owned in pound-sterling just became a real value.  I'm pretty sure the price will continue to slide for a week or two.  Maybe a great value for someone wanting to enter the Marriott game for a discount.


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## taterhed (Jun 24, 2016)

ace2000 said:


> Seems like the world is turning into one big mess right now... not sure who to blame?



I blame Elvis Presley and putting radios in Automobiles...the ruination of this country and it's morals.

 Ooops!  Sorry, that was my parents rant.  Guess I need to come up with one of my own.


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## bogey21 (Jun 24, 2016)

Good for the Brits.  IMO they are the first of many countries that will exit the EU, not so much for economic reasons but rather to regain their sovereignty.

George


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## Ironwood (Jun 24, 2016)

bogey21 said:


> Good for the Brits.  IMO they are the first of many countries that will exit the EU, not so much for economic reasons but rather to regain their sovereignty.
> 
> George



But at what cost?   The pound has plunged!  Bank stocks are off 30%!  International banks will leave London for European financial centres resulting in the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.  Spain is poised to retake Gibraltar!  I could go on.  Rural UK voted with their hearts not their heads.


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## myoakley (Jun 24, 2016)

Anyone who has been paying attention to the provisions imposed by the bureaucrats in Brussels, (a ban on electric tea kettles [a fire hazard?], a ban on balloons for children under 8, hours and euros spent on the definition of a banana,) is not surprised by this rebellion by the British people.  Let's remember that it was British citizens who rebelled and founded our own great country.  It seems to me that the spirit of independence is alive and well in English genes!


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## SmithOp (Jun 24, 2016)

myoakley said:


> Let's remember that it was British citizens who rebelled and founded our own great country.  It seems to me that the spirit of independence is alive and well in English genes!




or xenophobia.  Lets not forget hundreds of years of British Imperialism, not so nice now the pigeons come home to roost.



Sent from my iPad Mini 4 using Tapatalk


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## VegasBella (Jun 24, 2016)

myoakley said:


> Let's remember that it was British citizens who rebelled and founded our own great country.


Founded is one word for it.
Pillaged or stole are other words.


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## Ron98GT (Jun 24, 2016)

CO skier said:


> A vote of "No Confidence" in a currency for an economy of Great Britain's stature seems really bad. Who will hold up the Euro now?
> 
> 
> I don't think the Fed will be raising interest rates anytime soon.



First, the UK (England) is not using the Euro, they stuck with their pound.

Second, I think that you are wrong.  Janet Yellen (Chair of the Fed) has been itching at the bit and threatening to raise rates again.  I think the first chance she gets she will raise the rates.


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## bogey21 (Jun 24, 2016)

Ironwood said:


> But at what cost?   The pound has plunged!  Bank stocks are off 30%!  International banks will leave London for European financial centres resulting in the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.  Spain is poised to retake Gibraltar!  I could go on.  Rural UK voted with their hearts not their heads.



There is often a price to pay when one votes on principle.

George


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## "Roger" (Jun 24, 2016)

myoakley said:


> Anyone who has been paying attention to the provisions imposed by the bureaucrats in Brussels, (a ban on electric tea kettles [a fire hazard?], a ban on balloons for children under 8, hours and euros spent on the definition of a banana,) is not surprised by this rebellion by the British people.


They never banned electric tea kettles. They did do a study to see whether any device that consumes high amounts of electricity could be improved, but no regulation of tea kettles resulted (nor is it clear that this was even seriously considered - it was a general study of all electric devices).

They recommended that children under eight should be supervised when blowing up balloons because of the danger of them swallowing a burst balloon and choking. Somewhat similar to the warning on the plastic coverings for clothes taken home from dry cleaners. If you look, we have warnings about keeping these away from small children.


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## Pompey Family (Jun 24, 2016)

Ironwood said:


> But at what cost?   The pound has plunged!  Bank stocks are off 30%!  International banks will leave London for European financial centres resulting in the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.  Spain is poised to retake Gibraltar!  I could go on.  Rural UK voted with their hearts not their heads.



The £ has regained lost ground, many economists are not predicting dire consequences.

International banks are unlikely to leave the relatively lax rules of The City for the heavily bureaucratic EU.

Spain is not poised to retake Gibraltar!


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## Pompey Family (Jun 24, 2016)

"Roger" said:


> They never banned electric tea kettles. They did do a study to see whether any device that consumes high amounts of electricity could be improved, but no regulation of tea kettles resulted (nor is it clear that this was even seriously considered - it was a general study of all electric devices).
> 
> They recommended that children under eight should be supervised when blowing up balloons because of the danger of them swallowing a burst balloon and choking. Somewhat similar to the warning on the plastic coverings for clothes taken home from dry cleaners. If you look, we have warnings about keeping these away from small children.



They did more than a study. They have banned high powered electric items that consume a disproportionate amount of electricity and subsequently all vacuum cleaners and similar high powered consumption appliances have had to be redesigned to conform to the guidelines. Kettles and toasters are next in line: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...tle-and-toaster-crackdown-after-brexit-vote2/

It is this constant drip, drip, drip of meddling bureaucracy that has tipped many in the UK over the edge. It is the insidious creep of rule after rule after rule and the gradual erosion of democratic sovereignty. It has nothing to with xenophobia as many will claim but rather an unwillingness to be told what to do by unelected, faceless bureaucrats and I suspect that many American's would feel the same if they found themselves in similar circumstances. Imagine a truly United States of America where the whole continent was united, where free, unimpeded travel was allowed between all member states. Imagine the outcry if an unelected panel of bureaucrats based in Ecuador imposed a law that stripped American's of their right to bear arms and that they could no longer drive their cherished gas guzzling vehicles. A simple comparison perhaps but one that is not too outrageous in its conception.


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## LisaH (Jun 24, 2016)

taterhed said:


> I will say this:  that lovely London dinner of iced wodka,  pate with truffles, Iberico ham with risotto and Chianti--followed by Belgian chocolates and a glass of port....    just got very, very, very much more expensive.



But if you are American tourists with $$$, this may ease the pain just a bit


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## Ken555 (Jun 24, 2016)

Some of you may think differently in a few years when Scotland is an independent member of the EU. The ramifications of this vote are only now becoming apparent in the UK.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...hat-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/



> The run-up to the vote was marked by a bitterly divided campaign, one that was as much about immigration fears as it was about the global economy. But despite the all-out attempts by either side to court voters, Britons were not only mystified by what would happen if they left the E.U.— many seemed not to even know what the European Union is.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## "Roger" (Jun 24, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> ... Kettles and toasters are next in line: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...tle-and-toaster-crackdown-after-brexit-vote2/


 Yes, they did put limits (not bans) on the amount of electric consumption by _larger_ devices. (I never said anything different.) And they said that they would look to see if anything should be done about smaller devices (not naming tea kettles and I doubt that they would ever have considered actually banning them) about two or three years ago and nothing came of it. The Telegraph, however, has made a business of claiming a ban is just around the corner. (Do they have hidden microphones in the conference rooms that they know this?)

As far as larger devices go, you can disagree, but I personally would rather have electric clothes dryers and vacuum cleaners operate at a little less amperage than have an extra nuclear plant in my back yard. In line with that, there are plenty of Britons who do not want an extra coal fired power plant, a nuclear facility, a set of wind mills, etc. in their back yard. How do you balance the two sets of demands?

All told, the Telegraph loves to try to sensationalize things and they have a long history of stretching the truth. Who can blame them? Sensationalism and scare tactics sell. Not my cup of tea (made with my electric tea kettle).


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## Pompey Family (Jun 24, 2016)

"Roger" said:


> All told, the Telegraph loves to try to sensationalize things and they have a long history of stretching the truth. Who can blame them? Sensationalism and scare tactics sell. Not my cup of tea (made with my electric tea kettle).



I can't disagree with you there.


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## Laurie (Jun 24, 2016)

They need a 14-day rescission period like timeshares! Turns out many didn't really know what they were voting for, or even exacty what the EU is, and are regretting their Leave vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...hat-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/


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## taterhed (Jun 24, 2016)

Yes, I believe that Parliament might very well provide them with the opportunity for that 14 day rescission....


 What?  Media stretches the truth and exaggerates things?

 Next you'll be telling me that Timeshare sales staff aren't always truthful...

 :ignore:


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## "Roger" (Jun 24, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> I can't disagree with you there.


More peace making. 

I actually have some sympathy with the general sentiment of your original post. The EU did get involved in a lot of rule making. Not that the rules were necessarily bad (I am sure that some of the individual rules were bad, but as an overall package ... ?), but you (the Brits, or, the citizens of any of the EU countries) did not have a reasonable direct way to vote for approval or disapproval of those making the rules. That was not good.

I am not sure that pulling out is the answer, but something deserved to be changed.


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## Ironwood (Jun 24, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The £ has regained lost ground, many economists are not predicting dire consequences.
> 
> International banks are unlikely to leave the relatively lax rules of The City for the heavily bureaucratic EU.
> 
> Spain is not poised to retake Gibraltar!



Here's the piece from the Telegraph on the noise around Gibraltar.  Most UK dailies have their own story. Surely Spain won't be as foolish as Argentina in 1982!
On the matter of Money Center Banks, Morgan Stanley says they can't service European clients from London if the UK leaves the EU....I'm sure others are having the same discussion today.  It can't be unwound overnight, but don't bet against it!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...d-sovereignty-over-gibraltar-after-brexit-vo/


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## SMHarman (Jun 24, 2016)

myoakley said:


> Anyone who has been paying attention to the provisions imposed by the bureaucrats in Brussels, (a ban on electric tea kettles [a fire hazard?], a ban on balloons for children under 8, hours and euros spent on the definition of a banana,) is not surprised by this rebellion by the British people.  Let's remember that it was British citizens who rebelled and founded our own great country.  It seems to me that the spirit of independence is alive and well in English genes!


Where is the hard evidence of this stuff. 

The pillowcase one was disputed in seconds. One of those pillowcase rules was about pillowcase bearings or joints in cars.


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## am1 (Jun 24, 2016)

I am happy they decided to leave.  Except for my stocks dropping in USD.  

I have never been to either England or Europe but thing that since Great Britain is its own islands that they are different from the rest of Europe.  There is no common border.


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## SMHarman (Jun 24, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The £ has regained lost ground, many economists are not predicting dire consequences.
> 
> International banks are unlikely to leave the relatively lax rules of The City for the heavily bureaucratic EU.
> 
> Spain is not poised to retake Gibraltar!


The problem with banking is that the UK is 'passported' into the EU financial system through EU membership. 

In time that lapses so you now have cross border banking issues to deal with. 

It's not that banks want to leave just the UK staff may not be able to advise on that m&A deal or trade those Siemens securities.


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## x3 skier (Jun 24, 2016)

Ironwood said:


> On the matter of Money Center Banks, Morgan Stanley says they can't service European clients from London if the UK leaves the EU.




Since London is £ and the EU is € and this hasn't changed, why would being in Paris vs London make any difference? Does Morgan Stanley in New York not do any business in the EU? So now London will work like New York. It's all done by computer anyway and the only thing I can see is London is closer in time zone to the Continent so the Bankers in London can keep Banker's Hours.

Cheers


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## VacationForever (Jun 24, 2016)

x3 skier said:


> Since London is £ and the EU is € and this hasn't changed, why would being in Paris vs London make any difference? Does Morgan Stanley in New York not do any business in the EU? So now London will work like New York. It's all done by computer anyway and the only thing I can see is London is closer in time zone to the Continent so the Bankers in London can keep Banker's Hours.
> 
> Cheers



The issue is local banking laws.  Foreign customers and foreign banks have  more restrictions.  When EU is one happy family, foreign (EU) were treated the same way as locals (GB).


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## Sugarcubesea (Jun 24, 2016)

My company is all nervous that this is going to effect business so they recinded two job offers today...ugh


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## Ironwood (Jun 24, 2016)

Two trillion was wiped out from global markets today.  The Dow futures are currently showing 668 down for the opening Monday.  Thanks a lot UK!


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## Ken555 (Jun 24, 2016)

am1 said:


> I am happy they decided to leave.  Except for my stocks dropping in USD.
> 
> 
> 
> I have never been to either England or Europe but thing that since Great Britain is its own islands that they are different from the rest of Europe.  There is no common border.




Unreal comment not based in reality.


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## Ron98GT (Jun 24, 2016)

bogey21 said:


> There is often a price to pay when one votes on principle.
> 
> 
> 
> George





Or vote on impulse/emotion, lack of facts and what the result of their decision/vote will produce, or pure stupidity.  I think a big dose of #3.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## VacationForever (Jun 24, 2016)

Ron98GT said:


> Or vote on impulse/emotion, lack of facts and what the result of their decision/vote will produce, or pure stupidity.  I think a big dose of #3.
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Really?  Obviously it is your opinion that all who voted for BREXIT or believe it was a good decision were stupid.  

There are always 2 sides of a coin, and worse, in politics always 2 or more sides.  It does not make anyone side more stupid than the other.  Projecting your opinion on their vote is like a Dem will call a Rep stupid and vice versa.


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## dominidude (Jun 24, 2016)

The Brits got more out of the EU that they were putting in. 
They will be poorer for having voted to leave.
And to add insult to injury, GB will still be forced to allow legal migration from poor EU countries (that is, if GB wants visa free travel to EU countries, which they surely would), and they will be less effective at coordinating proper responses to illegal immigration.

It seems like a vote based on emotion and lack of facts. 

But GB is not going anywhere. It will still be there 100 yrs from now.

It's like a nasty, unnecessary divorce, that could have been avoided with proper marriage counselling, that's all.


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## VacationForever (Jun 24, 2016)

...ah but by not being in EU, UK will not need to support the debts in the likes of Greece.  It was the less well to do countries that wanted to be in EU, relying on the wealthier countries to support them economically.


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## Talent312 (Jun 24, 2016)

This thread is way political, but since it's UK/EU politics, I guess that doesn't count.

OTOH, the comments about the haircut the markets took hit me close to home.
The 3-4% drop in the US was cushioned a bit by my 50% stake in boring bonds.
If I were planning a trip to the UK, my dollar would go farther, but alas, its not to be.
.


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## SMHarman (Jun 24, 2016)

am1 said:


> I am happy they decided to leave.  Except for my stocks dropping in USD.
> 
> I have never been to either England or Europe but thing that since Great Britain is its own islands that they are different from the rest of Europe.  There is no common border.


No common land border. Just that big one between Northern Ireland and the ROI.


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## dominidude (Jun 24, 2016)

sptung said:


> ...ah but by not being in EU, UK will not need to support the debts in the likes of Greece.  It was the less well to do countries that wanted to be in EU, relying on the wealthier countries to support them economically.



Sounds like a divorcing husband telling his lawyer that his soon-to-be-ex wife is a good for nothing (or the divorcing wife talking to her lawyer, it works either way).

Meanwhile the lawyer is charging $500 an hour to listen to him/her complain.

To this dude (me), the cure seems way worse than the disease. After all, it wasnt as if GB was paying the debt you refer to all by itself (if it was at all). This is a perfect test to see if the money GB sent to the EU was worth the benefits GB got from EU. Time will tell. 

But again, the immigration scare played way too big a role in this vote, and it plainly shouldnt have.


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## taterhed (Jun 24, 2016)

Ya know, if memory serves me correct--and I believe it does--this whole "isolation" thing with the "island nation"  seemed to have some problems with the continent in the past.  Oh, I don't know, say 77 years ago?

Seems to me that another nation may have intervened to save the 'island' from the axis (and our own bacon at the same time).

Wars, migrants and refugees are not 'their' problem, they're 'OUR' problem.  As in 'all of us.'

Not political, just reminding us about history lest it rear it's ugly head and smite us again.


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## Kal (Jun 24, 2016)

In two years England will be a free agent. Having Scotland and Ireland remaining in the EU will present some interesting border control issues, tho.

In any case, after two years, maybe the US will start shopping for free agents. We could offer Puerto Rico and some IOUs and England could then become the 51st state! :whoopie:

 And if England wants to hold out for a better deal, we could throw in Texas!  It just doesn't get any better!


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## Pompey Family (Jun 25, 2016)

dominidude said:


> The Brits got more out of the EU that they were putting in.
> They will be poorer for having voted to leave.
> And to add insult to injury, GB will still be forced to allow legal migration from poor EU countries (that is, if GB wants visa free travel to EU countries, which they surely would), and they will be less effective at coordinating proper responses to illegal immigration.
> 
> ...



The UK will not be forced to allow legal migration from poor EU countries. We will not require visa's to travel throughout Europe, we will simply show our passports as we do now as we're not in the Schengen zone.

Do you think Spain (and others) will make life difficult for the second largest source of tourism income?

Scare tactics and threats have backfired, the UK has voted to leave the failing superstate and after a short period of jitters things will soon return to normal.


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## Laurie (Jun 25, 2016)

What will happen to the health care benefits of all the retired UK ex-pats who have moved south? They've totally relocated, will they have to move back to the UK now?

We have met several of them in our travels - in southern Portugal, Canary Islands, etc. - and have envied that flexibility.


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## Conan (Jun 25, 2016)

I don't know enough of UK politics to understand why, but it's remarkable how the vote varied by region. 






 Of course it may be a similar pattern for the U.S. in November (regardless of which party wins here).
*2012 US presidential election results*


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## CO skier (Jun 25, 2016)

Ron98GT said:


> First, the UK (England) is not using the Euro, they stuck with their pound.
> 
> Second, I think that you are wrong.  Janet Yellen (Chair of the Fed) has been itching at the bit and threatening to raise rates again.  I think the first chance she gets she will raise the rates.



Great Britain had only one foot in the EU to begin with, and now they want to step out altogether.


The Fed has been wanting to raise rates for the last 5 years, because the only other place to go from here is negative interest rates, or drop money from helicopters.

The chance of a rate hike in July is now zero.  The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in a chance of a rate _cut _in July.  The Fed won't raise rates any closer to the election, so the next chance of a rate hike would be early 2017.


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## CO skier (Jun 25, 2016)

Ironwood said:


> Two trillion was wiped out from global markets today.  The Dow futures are currently showing 668 down for the opening Monday.  Thanks a lot UK!



668 down is where the Dow e-mini closed yesterday.  At this moment, futures are not indicating a market sell off Monday morning.


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## Conan (Jun 25, 2016)

NPR Planet Money 
"Brexit:  What Just Happened...."
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/707-brexit/id290783428?i=1000371355420&mt=2


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## dominidude (Jun 25, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The UK will not be forced to allow legal migration from poor EU countries. We will not require visa's to travel throughout Europe, we will simply show our passports as we do now as we're not in the Schengen zone.
> 
> Do you think Spain (and others) will make life difficult for the second largest source of tourism income?
> 
> Scare tactics and threats have backfired, the UK has voted to leave the failing superstate and after a short period of jitters things will soon return to normal.



You are right that things will return to normal.
But normal means a poorer UK. If it does not (and I hope it doesnt) then that flies straight into the face of plain economics:
1) If you make a good and your market is 450 million strong (as in the EU) you stand to make a bigger profit than if your market is only 60 million strong (as in the UK).
2) If you're an employer and are forced to employ higher priced, lower educated Britons (as supposed to cheaper, higher educated eastern Europeans), then you're not as competitive as your competition elsewhere.

It's not scare tactics, it's simple logic.

And my understanding is that the EU has a common immigration policy. Yes, Britons will be allowed to go to Spain without a visa. But so will eastern Europeans in the EU be allowed into GB without visas. 

If GB can split the EU, by allowing some EU citizens to have broader travel privileges than others, then GB was right to the leave the EU. My guess, it's not going to happen.


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## VegasBella (Jun 25, 2016)

27 Brexit Tweets Guaranteed To Make You Laugh, Cry, Or Probably Both

https://www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/brexit-tweets-guaranteed-to-make-brits-laugh-cry-or-both


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## Talent312 (Jun 25, 2016)

Scotland should take back it's sovereignty (just as England thinks it's doing). Just as England was tired of domination by the EU, I would think Scotland would be tired of domination by the English for 3+ centuries.  I say: What's good for the goose is good for the gander.






By the same token, I have no problem with Texit or the Conch Republic.


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## Ken555 (Jun 25, 2016)

VegasBella said:


> 27 Brexit Tweets Guaranteed To Make You Laugh, Cry, Or Probably Both
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/brexit-tweets-guaranteed-to-make-brits-laugh-cry-or-both





Unfortunately, some of these are accurate...


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## Pompey Family (Jun 25, 2016)

Laurie said:


> What will happen to the health care benefits of all the retired UK ex-pats who have moved south? They've totally relocated, will they have to move back to the UK now?
> 
> We have met several of them in our travels - in southern Portugal, Canary Islands, etc. - and have envied that flexibility.



There's no reason why reciprocal health care arrangements cannot remain in place, they existed before and they exist between the Uk and Australia, New Zealand etc.

If the EU decides to remove reciprocal health care between member states and the UK then those ex-pats will either have to take out medical insurance or return to the UK however I don't see why they would. Provisions were in place before the EU proper and it would be disadvantageous for their own citizens who are living or travelling within the UK.


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## Pompey Family (Jun 25, 2016)

dominidude said:


> You are right that things will return to normal.
> But normal means a poorer UK. If it does not (and I hope it doesnt) then that flies straight into the face of plain economics:
> 1) If you make a good and your market is 450 million strong (as in the EU) you stand to make a bigger profit than if your market is only 60 million strong (as in the UK).
> 2) If you're an employer and are forced to employ higher priced, lower educated Britons (as supposed to cheaper, higher educated eastern Europeans), then you're not as competitive as your competition elsewhere.
> ...



There are more than two markets! The protectionism and ridiculous levels of bureaucracy in the EU makes it very difficult for individual countries to trade outside of the EU (and for others to trade into). One only has to look at the protectionism of the French for example to see why many in the UK are tiring of this stifling. There's a reason the EU has had such poor economic growth over the last decade and people in the UK who recognise it are keen to get out before we become dragged down.

There's also a difference between visiting a country such as Spain for a two week holiday with just a flash of a passport required and staying there to work. Eastern Europeans (within the EU) can come to the UK without a visa and will no doubt continue to do so once we've fully left however they won't be able to work nor exceed their stay by a set period. As a British passport holder I can visit 180 countries without needing a visa however for most I can only stay for a maximum of 90 days and certainly can't seek employment.

As for the UK being poorer, it does not fly in the face of plain economics, in fact many leading economists have suggested that the UK could do better once it is able to trade more freely with the rest of the world. In fact, exports to the EU from the UK have been in decline year on year since 2004. We export more to the rest of the world than we do to the EU and with the freedom to set up new and more favourable agreements this can only result in more trade.

What do you determine competitiveness to be? Is making more profit the definition of competitiveness? Is cheaper labour the answer to competitiveness? A good business leader would not agree with those sentiments.


----------



## bogey21 (Jun 25, 2016)

Ron98GT said:


> Or vote on impulse/emotion, lack of facts and what the result of their decision/vote will produce, or pure stupidity.  I think a big dose of #3.



Thank you for the complement!

George


----------



## Kal (Jun 25, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> ... In fact, exports to the EU from the UK have been in decline year on year since 2004. We export more to the rest of the world than we do to the EU and with the freedom to set up new and more favourable agreements this can only result in more trade...



All else being equal, that may be the case.  However, China is the elephant in the room.  If you factor China's marketplace dominance since 2004, GB is highly unlikely to be price competitive.  Thus the EU, like the US, is held captive by the purchasing power in China.  Add in a devalued pound, the homeland might be in for some difficult times.


----------



## Pompey Family (Jun 25, 2016)

Kal said:


> All else being equal, that may be the case.  However, China is the elephant in the room.  If you factor China's marketplace dominance since 2004, GB is highly unlikely to be price competitive.  Thus the EU, like the US, is held captive by the purchasing power in China.  Add in a devalued pound, the homeland might be in for some difficult times.



There is very little that we compete with China on in terms of trade, steel being the main exception, so in that respect they are not really competitors.


----------



## Roger830 (Jun 25, 2016)

Kal said:


> Add in a devalued pound, the homeland might be in for some difficult times.



It's likely that a devalued pound would be good for exports, thus employment.

Also, by not having to pay tribute to poorer performing EU countries, there will be more money for the UK.

There are some reports that over the long term it will be a big win.


----------



## Ironwood (Jun 25, 2016)

CO skier said:


> 668 down is where the Dow e-mini closed yesterday.  At this moment, futures are not indicating a market sell off Monday morning.



Yes you are right.  I'm an active trader so I keep an eye on things.  Futures are very dynamic and can quickly change even with 2 minutes to opening.  We'll just have to wait it out!  Hopefully common sense will prevail, but that rarely applies to markets in the short term.   The algorithms of trading programs will try to exaggerate which ever way we we open, so fasten your seat belts.


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 25, 2016)

x3 skier said:


> Since London is £ and the EU is € and this hasn't changed, why would being in Paris vs London make any difference? Does Morgan Stanley in New York not do any business in the EU? So now London will work like New York. It's all done by computer anyway and the only thing I can see is London is closer in time zone to the Continent so the Bankers in London can keep Banker's Hours.
> 
> Cheers


Morgan Stanley bankers in the US doing business in the EU would need to conform with their cross border controls. Checking licencing and registration and laws. Usually needing a local chaperone. 

MS bankers in London don't need this.  There is no border.


----------



## John Cummings (Jun 25, 2016)

CO skier said:


> A vote of "No Confidence" for a Prime Minister is one thing and power changes to the other side.
> 
> A vote of "No Confidence" in a currency for an economy of Great Britain's stature seems really bad. Who will hold up the Euro now? Germany? France? For how long?
> 
> ...



Great Britain has never used the Euro as their currency choosing to stay with the pound.


----------



## John Cummings (Jun 25, 2016)

bogey21 said:


> Good for the Brits.  IMO they are the first of many countries that will exit the EU, not so much for economic reasons but rather to regain their sovereignty.
> 
> George



I agree with you.


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 25, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> There are more than two markets! The protectionism and ridiculous levels of bureaucracy in the EU makes it very difficult for individual countries to trade outside of the EU (and for others to trade into). One only has to look at the protectionism of the French for example to see why many in the UK are tiring of this stifling. There's a reason the EU has had such poor economic growth over the last decade and people in the UK who recognise it are keen to get out before we become dragged down.
> 
> There's also a difference between visiting a country such as Spain for a two week holiday with just a flash of a passport required and staying there to work. Eastern Europeans (within the EU) can come to the UK without a visa and will no doubt continue to do so once we've fully left however they won't be able to work nor exceed their stay by a set period. As a British passport holder I can visit 180 countries without needing a visa however for most I can only stay for a maximum of 90 days and certainly can't seek employment.
> 
> ...


What are we actually going to trade though?  Not as if we make much.


----------



## John Cummings (Jun 25, 2016)

Ken555 said:


> Some of you may think differently in a few years when Scotland is an independent member of the EU. The ramifications of this vote are only now becoming apparent in the UK.
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...hat-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/
> 
> ...



I couldn't care less if Scotland is an independent member of the EU. It won't affect our lives one iota.


----------



## VacationForever (Jun 25, 2016)

SMHarman said:


> What are we actually going to trade though?  Not as if we make much.



Electric kettles?   Sorry, just being silly.  I really believe BREXIT is good for UK in the long term.


----------



## John Cummings (Jun 25, 2016)

Ironwood said:


> Two trillion was wiped out from global markets today.  The Dow futures are currently showing 668 down for the opening Monday.  Thanks a lot UK!



Those are only paper losses. Only a fool would sell in a down market. Think of it as a good buying opportunity.


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 25, 2016)

sptung said:


> Electric kettles?   Sorry, just being silly.  I really believe BREXIT is good for UK in the long term.


I wish I could agree. With the main export of financial services about to get significantly shut down and moved to frankfurter I fear for the budget.


----------



## CO skier (Jun 25, 2016)

John Cummings said:


> Great Britain has never used the Euro as their currency choosing to stay with the pound.



Yes, that is why I wrote about the pound reaching USD$1.25, not the Euro, which is already below that level, and why Great Britain had only one foot in EU from the beginning.  At least the Brits did not debase their currency the way Germany did.


----------



## PStreet1 (Jun 25, 2016)

I notice that very few posting on this thread (including me) are residents of the UK.  I suspect that impacts what we know about it.


----------



## John Cummings (Jun 25, 2016)

CO skier said:


> Yes, that is why I wrote about the pound reaching USD$1.25, not the Euro, which is already below that level, and why Great Britain had only one foot in EU from the beginning.  At least the Brits did not debase their currency the way Germany did.



The EURU = $1.11180 USD it is down a little since Thursday

The British Pound = $1.36754 USD It is down about 14 cents since Thursday

These are the current rates as of June 25 2016 @ 8:58 PM

The Canadian Dollar lost about 3 cents yesterday but that is largely because of the large drop in oil prices.


----------



## CO skier (Jun 26, 2016)

John Cummings said:


> The British Pound = $1.36754 USD It is down about 14 cents since Thursday



How low will the pound go before the dust settles?  USD$1.25 is not out of the question.  At the current rate of decline, it would get there by mid-week.  I doubt that happens.

If it does happen at some point, I will consider it a buying opportunity for the currency in one form or another.


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 26, 2016)

John Cummings said:


> The EURU = $1.11180 USD it is down a little since Thursday
> 
> The British Pound = $1.36754 USD It is down about 14 cents since Thursday
> 
> ...


And oils prices generally drop when the dollar strengthens


----------



## Conan (Jun 26, 2016)

Here's a view of the post-Brexit world from a U.S. perspective
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/w...ts-place-as-pillar-of-stability.html?emc=eta1


----------



## dominidude (Jun 27, 2016)

haha

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/27/new...n-promises/index.html?iid=surge-story-summary

"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes; and to settle down," he wrote for the Telegraph.

The problem, of course, is that such continued freedom of movement for Brits will require freedom of movement for Europeans.


----------



## Pompey Family (Jun 27, 2016)

dominidude said:


> haha
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/27/new...n-promises/index.html?iid=surge-story-summary
> 
> ...



The Swiss and the Norweigan's have this arrangement, nothing new.


----------



## sue1947 (Jun 27, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The Swiss and the Norweigan's have this arrangement, nothing new.



Thanks for posting on this topic.  Most of us are looking at it from the outside so it's interesting to hear from somebody on the inside; or at least somebody who was part of the decision.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  

Sue


----------



## Marathoner (Jun 27, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The Swiss and the Norweigan's have this arrangement, nothing new.



This is true.  And the Swiss and Norweigan governments pay into the EU budget for this access - each pay about a billion euros per year.  So, the UK should expect to pay a similar amount for trade access to the EU.  What is currently unknown is how immigration will be curtailed into the UK because both Norway and Switzerland allow free border access to EU citizens through the European Economic Area and the Free Movement of Persons agreement, respectively.

HSBC made a call today that the GBP-USD exchange rate will drop to 1.20 by year end.  The FTSE 350 has lost over 150 billion GBP in the last 2 days.  The City will lose more than 100,000 jobs in finance in the next 5 years.

But Brexit will allow freedom to the UK (ex-Scotland, Gibralter, Northern Ireland) from the Brussel bureaucrats and somehow allow Britian to control unfettered immigration of EU citizens.  The question is whether the short and medium term pain is worth the prize.


----------



## littlestar (Jun 27, 2016)

Did the EU mandate how many hours a week British citizens could work?


----------



## dominidude (Jun 27, 2016)

Marathoner said:


> And the Swiss and Norweigan governments pay into the EU budget for this access - each pay about 100-200 million euros per year.  So, the UK should expect to pay a similar amount for trade access to the EU.  *What is currently unknown is how immigration will be curtailed into the UK because both Norway and Switzerland allow free border access to EU citizens through the European Economic Area and the Free Movement of Persons agreement, respectively.*





Pompey Family said:


> There's also a difference between visiting a country such as Spain for a two week holiday with just a flash of a passport required and staying there to work. *Eastern Europeans (within the EU) can come to the UK without a visa and will no doubt continue to do so once we've fully left however they won't be able to work nor exceed their stay by a set period. *As a British passport holder I can visit 180 countries without needing a visa however for most I can only stay for a maximum of 90 days and certainly can't seek employment.



That's the point guys: EU immigration won't be curtailed, and the UK won't stop contributing to the EU's budget!

Those were two things that the Brexiteers were trying to accomplish which plainly won't happen. Like I said, jaja!


----------



## CO skier (Jun 27, 2016)

dominidude said:


> That's the point guys: EU immigration won't be curtailed,



That's the advantage Great Britain has always had versus the rest of Europe (and contributed mightily in WW2); they are an island.  They do not need a wall.   Everyone who enters the country does so through immigration or by rowing/boating across the English Channel.


----------



## dominidude (Jun 27, 2016)

CO skier said:


> That's the advantage Great Britain has always had versus the rest of Europe (and contributed mightily in WW2); they are an island.  They do not need a wall.   Everyone who enters the country does so through immigration or by rowing/boating across the English Channel.



I think you are missing the point. There wont be access to EU market without free movement of people to work where they wish.

If the Swiss didnt get that (they never joined the EU, and are much wealthier per capita than the UK) it's just plain the UK wont either.


----------



## CO skier (Jun 27, 2016)

dominidude said:


> I think you are missing the point. There wont be access to EU market without free movement of people to work where they wish.



The USA and other countries trade with the EU, but there is (supposedly) no "free movement" of EU citizens to and from the USA.  Great Britain will just be another, independent trading partner with the EU.


----------



## CO skier (Jun 27, 2016)

Ironwood said:


> Two trillion was wiped out from global markets today.  The Dow futures are currently showing 668 down for the opening Monday.  Thanks a lot UK!



Dow futures are up more than 100 points for tomorrow's (Tuesday) open.  Anyone for a turnabout Tuesday?  Much can change, of course, before then.  (Up 200-300 by then end of trading tomorrow?  Who knows?)

It just goes to show there is no predicting where this will go from here.  (I think lower from here in the next few weeks.)

I have my ideas of a buying opportunity, but there is no guarantee, either, which is why I also have a stop/loss to go with it, if it happens.


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 27, 2016)

littlestar said:


> Did the EU mandate how many hours a week British citizens could work?


The working time directive has opt outs. All UK employers required their officers to sign the opt out.


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 27, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The Swiss and the Norweigan's have this arrangement, nothing new.


Bit they also contribute their £350m a week share to the EU.


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 27, 2016)

Marathoner said:


> This is true.  And the Swiss and Norweigan governments pay into the EU budget for this access - each pay about 100-200 million euros per year.  So, the UK should expect to pay a similar amount for trade access to the EU.  What is currently unknown is how immigration will be curtailed into the UK because both Norway and Switzerland allow free border access to EU citizens through the European Economic Area and the Free Movement of Persons agreement, respectively.


So the UK contributes 350m a week gets 125 straight back as a rebate and the. Gets another 100 plus back in regional aid. 

Sounds like the UK will be paying more in and getting nothing back going forward. 

Do Norway or Switzerland get regional development aid or CAP monies.


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 27, 2016)

CO skier said:


> The USA and other countries trade with the EU, but there is (supposedly) no "free movement" of EU citizens to and from the USA.  Great Britain will just be another, independent trading partner with the EU.


The US trade is subject to duties and terrify. The UK as part of the EU is not subject to those duties and tarrifs.


----------



## CO skier (Jun 27, 2016)

SMHarman said:


> The US trade is subject to duties and terrify. The UK as part of the EU is not subject to those duties and tarrifs.



Duties and tariffs do not terrify US companies.  They seem to want to trade.

I don't think it will be any different for GB companies.

GB exports are certainly less expensive than they were last week by about 11%.


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 28, 2016)

CO skier said:


> Duties and tariffs do not terrify US companies.  They seem to want to trade.
> 
> I don't think it will be any different for GB companies.
> 
> GB exports are certainly less expensive than they were last week by about 11%.


But they create a barrier. Tie things up in customs. Further,  it's not 50 percent of gdp. 

Finally financial services needs the passport and canot work with tarrifs


----------



## CO skier (Jun 28, 2016)

SMHarman said:


> But they create a barrier. Tie things up in customs. Further,  it's not 50 percent of gdp.
> 
> Finally financial services needs the passport and canot work with tarrifs



Real Scotch whiskey just got a whole lot cheaper.  In the end, that is what matters the most to me.  Don't worry; I am sure my friends and I can put a dent in that 50% of GDP that used to go to the EU. :whoopie:


----------



## SMHarman (Jun 28, 2016)

CO skier said:


> Real Scotch whiskey just got a whole lot cheaper.  In the end, that is what matters the most to me.  Don't worry; I am sure my friends and I can put a dent in that 50% of GDP that used to go to the EU. :whoopie:


Is there that much surplus whisky to buy up?


----------



## Ironwood (Jun 28, 2016)

England has just managed to exit Europe twice in the same week!    The S & P and Moody's have reduced the UK's credit rating two notches below AAA, while Iceland has reduced the three lion's rating to LOL!


----------



## Pompey Family (Jun 28, 2016)

dominidude said:


> That's the point guys: EU immigration won't be curtailed, and the UK won't stop contributing to the EU's budget!
> 
> Those were two things that the Brexiteers were trying to accomplish which plainly won't happen. Like I said, jaja!



It's not what I (and many like me) are trying to accomplish. I have no issue with freedom of movement within the EU and the recent 'achievement' by David Cameron in restricting EU migrants access to the UK benefit system has gone some way to answering many people's concerns. However there is an issue with infrastructure where there has been a huge influx of foreign migrants. Insufficient school places, medical facilities, NHS waiting times, housing shortages, depressed wages etc have all helped to cause resentment amongst those local populations that are affected. For those people it is often their biggest concern.

For me I am concerned at the insidious creep of an unelected, unaccountable and undemocratic organisation that is continuously seeking ever closer unity. The treatment of Greece has been horrendous and it is a taster of things to come particularly for those on the precipice such as Italy, Spain, Portugal etc. One only has to look at the threats issued by EU politicians about "punishing" Britain if the people vote to leave and also making sure that other countries are intimidated so that they dare not seek their own independence. The EU is a failing experiment, it is falling apart and I do not wish to be a part of an inward looking, corrupt, socialist experiment.

It seems that this is lost on many people outside of the EU where the primary concern appears to be money. Perhaps it's because for many they have no knowledge of the real issues.


----------



## VacationForever (Jun 28, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> It's not what I (and many like me) are trying to accomplish. I have no issue with freedom of movement within the EU and the recent 'achievement' by David Cameron in restricting EU migrants access to the UK benefit system has gone some way to answering many people's concerns. However there is an issue with infrastructure where there has been a huge influx of foreign migrants. Insufficient school places, medical facilities, NHS waiting times, housing shortages, depressed wages etc have all helped to cause resentment amongst those local populations that are affected. For those people it is often their biggest concern.
> 
> For me I am concerned at the insidious creep of an unelected, unaccountable and undemocratic organisation that is continuously seeking ever closer unity. The treatment of Greece has been horrendous and it is a taster of things to come particularly for those on the precipice such as Italy, Spain, Portugal etc. One only has to look at the threats issued by EU politicians about "punishing" Britain if the people vote to leave and also making sure that other countries are intimidated so that they dare not seek their own independence. The EU is a failing experiment, it is falling apart and I do not wish to be a part of an inward looking, corrupt, socialist experiment.
> 
> It seems that this is lost on many people outside of the EU where the primary concern appears to be money. Perhaps it's because for many they have no knowledge of the real issues.



Well said, thank you for sharing.  While I don't live in UK, my reaction to BREXIT is that it will be positive for UK in the long term.


----------



## PStreet1 (Jun 28, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> It's not what I (and many like me) are trying to accomplish. I have no issue with freedom of movement within the EU and the recent 'achievement' by David Cameron in restricting EU migrants access to the UK benefit system has gone some way to answering many people's concerns. However there is an issue with infrastructure where there has been a huge influx of foreign migrants. Insufficient school places, medical facilities, NHS waiting times, housing shortages, depressed wages etc have all helped to cause resentment amongst those local populations that are affected. For those people it is often their biggest concern.
> 
> For me I am concerned at the insidious creep of an unelected, unaccountable and undemocratic organisation that is continuously seeking ever closer unity. The treatment of Greece has been horrendous and it is a taster of things to come particularly for those on the precipice such as Italy, Spain, Portugal etc. One only has to look at the threats issued by EU politicians about "punishing" Britain if the people vote to leave and also making sure that other countries are intimidated so that they dare not seek their own independence. The EU is a failing experiment, it is falling apart and I do not wish to be a part of an inward looking, corrupt, socialist experiment.
> 
> It seems that this is lost on many people outside of the EU where the primary concern appears to be money. Perhaps it's because for many they have no knowledge of the real issues.



Thank you for responding.  I can't help but believe a country that has managed very nicely on its own for its very long history can't cope with whatever is necessary that results from 43 years in the EU.


----------



## dominidude (Jun 28, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The EU is a failing experiment, it is falling apart and I do not wish to be a part of an inward looking, corrupt, socialist experiment.
> 
> It seems that this is lost on many people outside of the EU where the primary concern appears to be money. Perhaps it's because for many they have no knowledge of the real issues.



England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland will be 100 years from now, no doubt about that. The question is, will there be a UK?

If the EU is a failing experiment, why did Northern Ireland and Scotland vote to Remain?

Perhaps the EU is not such a failing experiment. Perhaps the English got spooked by immigration of poorer people who dont look like the current English citizens. 

I know it's hard to entertain the thought that a whole country could fall sleep at the wheel like this, but it's not the first time, and it definitely won't be the last. You could even say that's what happened in Greece, but at least the Greek did not vote to leave the EU.


----------



## Talent312 (Jun 28, 2016)

Self-interest modality: With the bounce-back in the stock-market today, my portfolio is up 2.4% YTD.  I had a pre-Brexit gain of 3.9% YTD, so my haircut was only 1.5%.  I'll live.  

I'd like to use these gains for a trip to the UK with cheap Pounds, maybe even visit a few golf courses in Scotland, but alas, I think it better just to let 'em ride.  
.


----------



## John Cummings (Jun 28, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> It's not what I (and many like me) are trying to accomplish. I have no issue with freedom of movement within the EU and the recent 'achievement' by David Cameron in restricting EU migrants access to the UK benefit system has gone some way to answering many people's concerns. However there is an issue with infrastructure where there has been a huge influx of foreign migrants. Insufficient school places, medical facilities, NHS waiting times, housing shortages, depressed wages etc have all helped to cause resentment amongst those local populations that are affected. For those people it is often their biggest concern.
> 
> For me I am concerned at the insidious creep of an unelected, unaccountable and undemocratic organisation that is continuously seeking ever closer unity. The treatment of Greece has been horrendous and it is a taster of things to come particularly for those on the precipice such as Italy, Spain, Portugal etc. One only has to look at the threats issued by EU politicians about "punishing" Britain if the people vote to leave and also making sure that other countries are intimidated so that they dare not seek their own independence. The EU is a failing experiment, it is falling apart and I do not wish to be a part of an inward looking, corrupt, socialist experiment.
> 
> It seems that this is lost on many people outside of the EU where the primary concern appears to be money. Perhaps it's because for many they have no knowledge of the real issues.



I agree with you 100%.


----------



## CO skier (Jun 28, 2016)

Talent312 said:


> Self-interest modality: With the bounce-back in the stock-market today, my portfolio is up 2.4% YTD.  I had a pre-Brexit gain of 3.9% YTD, so my haircut was only 1.5%.  I'll live.
> 
> I'd like to use these gains for a trip to the UK with cheap Pounds, maybe even visit a few golf courses in Scotland, but alas, I think it better just to let 'em ride.
> .


How about a new concept -- dollar cost vacationing?  Sell 2X what that on-sale trip to the UK will cost.  Take the vacation.  Then in October, when Brexit and ClinTrumpit have fully trashed the market, reinvest what is left of what you sold now and did not spend on vacation.

That is my general plan (just with a domestic vacation [I don't think the Scots would let me onto one of their courses], and 10X selling into this dead cat bounce, in the meantime).


----------



## Pompey Family (Jun 29, 2016)

dominidude said:


> England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland will be 100 years from now, no doubt about that. The question is, will there be a UK?
> 
> If the EU is a failing experiment, why did Northern Ireland and Scotland vote to Remain?
> 
> ...



Considering most Poles, Romanian's, Lithuanian's and Latvian's look like most British people (Britain is not just England) then it's difficult trying to see what point you're trying to make.

The Northern Irish vote was 55.8% v 44.2% so not overwhelmingly pro EU. There is a lot of concern about the threat of a return to conflict so that's an understandable reason for a lack of desire to rock the boat.

The Welsh also voted to leave or are they not considered part of the UK?

As for the Greeks. If they were ever given the opportunity for a referendum to leave the EU then I have every confidence that the result would be an overwhelming "yes". Likewise for the Dutch, most likely for the Italian's, even the French and German people are expressing their frustrations and concerns with the EU.


----------



## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The Northern Irish vote was 55.8% v 44.2% so not overwhelmingly pro EU.




I'd say that more than a 10% spread, as in this instance, is a significant number.


----------



## Pompey Family (Jun 29, 2016)

Ken555 said:


> I'd say that more than a 10% spread, as in this instance, is a significant number.



Significant it may be, overwhelmingly supportive of EU membership it is not.

It would be interesting to see if the split was representative of voters pro UK or pro Ireland views.


----------



## Ken555 (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> Significant it may be, overwhelmingly supportive of EU membership it is not.




You'll hear different opinions on that. The very definition of landslide victory is rather opaque. 10% (more, in this instance) is a notably substantial difference and I would suggest you be hesitant at reaching any conclusions by this number other than to say it is a substantial difference.


----------



## ace2000 (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> Considering most Poles, Romanian's, Lithuanian's and Latvian's look like most British people (Britain is not just England) then it's difficult trying to see what point you're trying to make.



You have to face the facts.  It was clear that immigration was a major factor in the Brexit vote.  And it wasn't *just* because of the immigration of the Poles, Romanians, Lithuanians, and Latvians. It's difficult to see what point you are trying to make.


----------



## Pompey Family (Jun 29, 2016)

ace2000 said:


> You have to face the facts.  It was clear that immigration was a major factor in the Brexit vote.  And it wasn't because of the immigration of the Poles, Romanians, Lithuanians, and Latvians. It's difficult to see what point you are trying to make.



Perhaps you could explain what the immigration issues are, I presume you live in the UK and have witnessed it first hand? 

If the influx of large numbers of Poles, Romanian's, Lithuanian's and Latvian's which have caused unprecedented demand on local services and infrastructure and have contributed to depressing wages in certain industries isn't the immigration issue then what is?

There is no unfettered immigration from outside the EU so who else is responsible?

One of the tenets of the Leave campaign was to adopt a points based system whereby skilled workers from the Commonwealth and other countries can be sourced and the process of immigration made easier. That is a much fairer and sensible system than the one we currently have.


----------



## Pompey Family (Jun 29, 2016)

Ken555 said:


> You'll hear different opinions on that. The very definition of landslide victory is rather opaque. 10% (more, in this instance) is a notably substantial difference and I would suggest you be hesitant at reaching any conclusions by this number other than to say it is a substantial difference.



The only conclusion that I have reached was that this was a democratic vote and people have to accept the result.


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## dominidude (Jun 29, 2016)

My understanding is that immigrants to the UK  as a whole add add to its economy, and limiting it would have detrimental effects on the economy. 

Also,  if the UK imposes Australian style controls on EU immigrants,  it won't have access to the EU market,  and can expect the same immigration controls to be applied to UK Immigrants to the EU .

Hence why the Scotts and  northern Irish vote to Remain made a lot of sense to them.


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## ace2000 (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> If the influx of large numbers of Poles, Romanian's, Lithuanian's and Latvian's which have caused unprecedented demand on local services and infrastructure and have contributed to depressing wages in certain industries isn't the immigration issue then what is?
> 
> There is no unfettered immigration from outside the EU so who else is responsible?



You're correct about your assumptions about those groups being an issue (I didn't mean they weren't an issue).  My point is that the immigration angst goes far beyond those groups and encompass many others also.  The groups you mentioned make up less than half of the total immigration numbers over the last two decades.  Over half of the immigration to the UK in the last 25 years has come from India, Pakistan, Bangledesh, and China (only about 15 percent have come from the countries you've mentioned above).


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## Beaglemom3 (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The only conclusion that I have reached was that this was a democratic vote and people have to accept the result.



  Is it binding, though ?

  I am very interested in your understanding of this as a UK resident/citizen.

  Thanking you in advance.


  This is a very informative thread, thanks to all. 

  Seeking to understand here.


  -


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## SMHarman (Jun 29, 2016)

Beaglemom3 said:


> Is it binding, though ?
> 
> I am very interested in your understanding of this as a UK resident/citizen.
> 
> ...


No it is not legally binding. 

It is democratically binding. Ignoring the result ignores the will of the people. Though not the <18s etc.


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## Roger830 (Jun 29, 2016)

Ken555 said:


> I'd say that more than a 10% spread, as in this instance, is a significant number.



55.8% to 44.2%

If 5.8 of the 55.8 voted the other way it would be 55.8 - 5.8 to 44.2 + 5.8 = 50 to 50.


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## littlestar (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> It's not what I (and many like me) are trying to accomplish. I have no issue with freedom of movement within the EU and the recent 'achievement' by David Cameron in restricting EU migrants access to the UK benefit system has gone some way to answering many people's concerns. However there is an issue with infrastructure where there has been a huge influx of foreign migrants. Insufficient school places, medical facilities, NHS waiting times, housing shortages, depressed wages etc have all helped to cause resentment amongst those local populations that are affected. For those people it is often their biggest concern.
> 
> For me I am concerned at the insidious creep of an unelected, unaccountable and undemocratic organisation that is continuously seeking ever closer unity. The treatment of Greece has been horrendous and it is a taster of things to come particularly for those on the precipice such as Italy, Spain, Portugal etc. One only has to look at the threats issued by EU politicians about "punishing" Britain if the people vote to leave and also making sure that other countries are intimidated so that they dare not seek their own independence. The EU is a failing experiment, it is falling apart and I do not wish to be a part of an inward looking, corrupt, socialist experiment.
> 
> It seems that this is lost on many people outside of the EU where the primary concern appears to be money. Perhaps it's because for many they have no knowledge of the real issues.



Great post!


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## Pompey Family (Jun 29, 2016)

dominidude said:


> My understanding is that immigrants to the UK  as a whole add add to its economy, and limiting it would have detrimental effects on the economy.
> 
> Also,  if the UK imposes Australian style controls on EU immigrants,  it won't have access to the EU market,  and can expect the same immigration controls to be applied to UK Immigrants to the EU .
> 
> Hence why the Scotts and  northern Irish vote to Remain made a lot of sense to them.



Yes, immigrants who are working, paying taxes and purchasing goods, services etc are contributing to the economy. What is not happening however is money being spent on the infrastructure to accommodate huge influxes of people. Waiting times to see a doctor are now two weeks in many places, the stresses on the NHS is immense, school places are being fought over, house prices and rentals are through the roof due to shortages, certain industries have seen wages plummet due to a surge in cheaper, foreign labour. The government coffers can be swollen with all the taxes from immigrant workers but if that money isn't being reinvested in the infrastructure it is of no benefit.

There is nothing to state that the UK cannot have access to the EU market (I presume you mean the labour market?) Even if it implements a points based system that doesn't preclude EU citizens from applying in the same way that anyone else in the world could. Why wouldn't the UK want the option of being able to choose who it wants to allow into the country rather than have an open door for all and sundry? It's akin to allowing the residents of Central and South America free and unlimited access to the US and vice versa, I'm sure that would go down well with the majority of US citizens, still they'll all be contributing to the economy so it'll be alright.


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## Pompey Family (Jun 29, 2016)

Beaglemom3 said:


> Is it binding, though ?
> 
> I am very interested in your understanding of this as a UK resident/citizen.
> 
> ...



No, it is not binding. Parliament has to ratify it however it would be a very brave and foolish parliament that went against the will of the people.

Article 50 has not been enacted therefore the UK is still in the EU. Despite calls from EU leaders to rush ahead and implement it it is not in the interests of the UK to act so quickly. I believe there is room for negotiation, I don't believe stubbornness will win the day, perhaps this is the kick that the EU required to start listening to the concerns of the people and put a halt on the bulldozing march to a one nation superstate.


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## Pompey Family (Jun 29, 2016)

littlestar said:


> Great post!



Thank you


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## Pompey Family (Jun 29, 2016)

Ken555 said:


> I'd say that more than a 10% spread, as in this instance, is a significant number.



To shed some light on the voting decisions by the citizens of Northern Ireland it is interesting to note two images. The first is a breakdown of districts according to the strength of religious persuasion, the greener the district the more catholic it is whilst the orange is more protestant.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...nd_by_strength_of_religious_majority_2011.png

The following image shows the majority vote per district.

http://cdn2.spectator.co.uk/files/2016/06/Screen-Shot-2016-06-26-at-23.43.39.png

It is evident that the vote in Northern Ireland was split primarily by religious persuasion. I suspect that age old divisions played more of a role in decision making than a thorough and detailed appraisal of the pros and cons of EU membership.


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## Beaglemom3 (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> No, it is not binding. Parliament has to ratify it however it would be a very brave and foolish parliament that went against the will of the people.
> 
> Article 50 has not been enacted therefore the UK is still in the EU. Despite calls from EU leaders to rush ahead and implement it it is not in the interests of the UK to act so quickly. I believe there is room for negotiation, I don't believe stubbornness will win the day, perhaps this is the kick that the EU required to start listening to the concerns of the people and put a halt on the bulldozing march to a one nation superstate.



  Thank you very much. 

  Very informative and helpful in understanding, especially from the perspective of one in the UK.

  Hoping to get back to Portsmouth again.

  -


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## "Roger" (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> Yes, immigrants who are working, paying taxes and purchasing goods, services etc are contributing to the economy. What is not happening however is money being spent on the infrastructure to accommodate huge influxes of people. Waiting times to see a doctor are now two weeks in many places, the stresses on the NHS is immense, ...


Not sure that I understand your point here. My understanding is that the amount spent on health care per person has dropped by about twenty per cent over the last decade or so. (Inflation adjusted.) If the immigrants are contributing to the economy and paying taxes _at the same rate_ as long standing Britons, how are they responsible for the shortages being experienced by the NHS?

Given that Britons are getting older, new procedures are more expensive, and the amount of money being spent per person is diminishing, the quality of health care will go down. I don't see how slowing the economy and reducing the number of contributors will help solve this.


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## dominidude (Jun 29, 2016)

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ew-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit

47% of UK exports went to other EU countries
54% of UK imports came from other EU countries

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V3QiHflViIc

3% of EU exports went to the UK 
16% of EU imports came from the UK

You tell me who holds the cards in this relationship.

Post Brexit (when/if someone invokes article 50), UK will continue :
-accepting EU people into its borders for work.
-contributing to the EU's budget
-having to abide by regulations from Brussels for products and services for export to the EU

All of this, and the UK risks getting split up, and has greatly diminished its ability to influence the EU.

(mike drop)


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## vacationhopeful (Jun 29, 2016)

"Roger" said:


> ....
> Given that Britons are getting older, new procedures are more expensive, and the amount of money being spent per person is diminishing, the quality of health care will go down. I don't see how slowing the economy and reducing the number of contributors will help solve this.



I believe the costs are in being way MORE than 1 or 2 children per family, overcrowding and subsidized housing, public medical service from LACK of prior health care, language translation services for every interaction, lack of prior or consistent schooling, no family support system, cultural difference (in family make-up, education levels, job skills, extremely different customs) and much more mental illness due to stress.

As for medical costs going DOWN for 20 years ... that can easily be explained as looking at the long window to HIDE the current trend. I would use numbers over the last 18-24 months ,,, and contrast that to 5 or ten years early.


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## Pompey Family (Jun 29, 2016)

dominidude said:


> All of this, and the UK risks getting split up, and has greatly diminished its ability to influence the EU.
> 
> (mike drop)



If Scotland and/or NI decide to leave the UK and seek to join the EU they will need to apply just as every other country has done. This procedure takes, on average, around ten years. Scotland was told explicitly by the EU at the time of their referendum that this would be the case, no exceptions. It may be that the process may not take as long as other countries but it would take several years at least. What would Scotland or NI do for currency during that period? They couldn't use Sterling, they couldn't use the Euro.

Quite simply.....it isn't going to happen.


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## Talent312 (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> Quite simply.....it isn't going to happen.



As my daddy used to say: "Famous last words."

Scotland has an honored and rich history as an independent state. It fought several wars trying to throw off the yoke of it's English overlords. I would not underestimate the significance of that impulse.
.


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## dioxide45 (Jun 29, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> If Scotland and/or NI decide to leave the UK and seek to join the EU they will need to apply just as every other country has done. This procedure takes, on average, around ten years. Scotland was told explicitly by the EU at the time of their referendum that this would be the case, no exceptions. It may be that the process may not take as long as other countries but it would take several years at least. What would Scotland or NI do for currency during that period? They couldn't use Sterling, they couldn't use the Euro.
> 
> Quite simply.....it isn't going to happen.



Not sure why they couldn't use a currency of another nation. Doesn't Panama use the US$ as their official currency?


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## PigsDad (Jun 29, 2016)

dioxide45 said:


> Not sure why they couldn't use a currency of another nation. Doesn't Panama use the US$ as their official currency?



Yep.  A quick Google search will show you that dozens of countries do not have their own currency.  USD and Euros are the most common among those countries as their official currency.

Kurt


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## Ken555 (Jun 30, 2016)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Scotland


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Pompey Family (Jun 30, 2016)

Ken555 said:


> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Scotland
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



The Bank of Scotland uses Sterling. In the case of independence they would no longer be able to. This was all discussed during the run up to their own independence referendum. It's irrelevant how old the bank is or its gloroius history, the simple fact is that it has no currency if its own.

They could use another currency but that would be a last resort and would not make economic sense.

Currency issue notwithstanding there is the very big issue of vetoes. EU states who currently have an issue with seperatist movements, Spain being the obvious one, will not want to encourage such groups with moves towards independence. The Spanish PM has already stated that Spain would veto Scotlands application to join the EU.


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## Pompey Family (Jun 30, 2016)

dioxide45 said:


> Not sure why they couldn't use a currency of another nation. Doesn't Panama use the US$ as their official currency?



There's no reason why they couldn't use another currency other than the huge economic risks and the lack of control.

A quick look at the countries that use another country's currency tells you all you need to know.


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## SMHarman (Jun 30, 2016)

Pompey Family said:


> The Bank of Scotland uses Sterling. In the case of independence they would no longer be able to. This was all discussed during the run up to their own independence referendum. It's irrelevant how old the bank is or its gloroius history, the simple fact is that it has no currency if its own.
> 
> They could use another currency but that would be a last resort and would not make economic sense.
> 
> Currency issue notwithstanding there is the very big issue of vetoes. EU states who currently have an issue with seperatist movements, Spain being the obvious one, will not want to encourage such groups with moves towards independence. The Spanish PM has already stated that Spain would veto Scotlands application to join the EU.


This was one of the most spurious arguments of independence.  

For every £ of currency BOS and RBS issue, they deposit a real £ with BoE. 

That's how their currency is full faith and credit if BoE. They don't have a licence to just print money and change their money supply. 

With that protocol continuing there would be no reason not to continue using £.  Alternatively they could transition to Euro using the same protocol with the ECB.


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## Passepartout (Jun 30, 2016)

Seems to work OK in the Channel Islands. Guernsey (was just there last month) has their own 'Pounds', and there are ATMs side-by-side that dispense Sterling or Guernsey Pounds. Shops seemed to accept either. Bank of Scotland already dispenses their own Pounds, so the problem doesn't seem insurmountable.

Anyway, from my vantage point some 5,000 miles away, it seems increasingly unlikely that Brexit will actually come to pass. It appears that it's 'champions', when called upon to produce results, are ducking the issue, and blaming the  Conservatives who frankly, don't have a dog in the fight.

Jim


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## Pompey Family (Jun 30, 2016)

Passepartout said:


> Seems to work OK in the Channel Islands. Guernsey (was just there last month) has their own 'Pounds', and there are ATMs side-by-side that dispense Sterling or Guernsey Pounds. Shops seemed to accept either. Bank of Scotland already dispenses their own Pounds, so the problem doesn't seem insurmountable.
> 
> Anyway, from my vantage point some 5,000 miles away, it seems increasingly unlikely that Brexit will actually come to pass. It appears that it's 'champions', when called upon to produce results, are ducking the issue, and blaming the  Conservatives who frankly, don't have a dog in the fight.
> 
> Jim



To use the pound requires access to the Bank Of England, something that the Channel Islands and Scotland currently have. If Scotland were to leave the UK that access would be withdrawn. They could carry on and use the pound but without the BofE acting as a lender of last resort, this is a major block to economic security.

Scotland leaving the UK is not as simple as the SNP like to portray it.

Still, the FTSE has recovered lost ground, Sterling is back up to previous levels and the Four Horsemen of The Apocalypse have not made an appearance. Even France's foreign minister has suggested that access to the EU market could be negotiated without accepting free movement of people.

This is uncharted territory but I'm glad the British public had the balls to take a leap into the unknown rather than be cowed by the threats and fearmongering of an undemocratic oligarchy.


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## dominidude (Jun 30, 2016)

Brexit, Bremain, Breversal.
Shoot me now!


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## Pompey Family (Jun 30, 2016)

dominidude said:


> Brexit, Bremain, Breversal.
> Shoot me now!



A little tip.....don't believe everything you read in the media, particularly those owned by people with certain vested interests.


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## x3 skier (Jun 30, 2016)

*Boris declines*

Surprised to see Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London, declined to run for Prime Minister. Perhaps he didn't want to negotiate Brexit after promoting it opposite Mr Cameron's position. Or maybe he wants to get paid more acting as a "consultant" in the process.

Cheers


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## Blues (Jul 7, 2016)

I just noticed this on the net:

EU Bans Claim That Water Can Prevent Dehydration

I didn't understand the Brexit vote before.  Now it's starting to make a bit more sense.


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## PStreet1 (Jul 7, 2016)

Amazing what a three year study can discover, isn't it?


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## "Roger" (Jul 7, 2016)

Interesting... a five year old article from the Daily Telegraph.

First of all, no bottled water company ever wanted to put anything like the claim on its bottles of water. (To do so would mean that they wanted to label their product as a health product as opposed to a food. I suspect that would just open up a can of worms.) What happened is that two professors, hoping to embarrass the EU, asked for a ruling for the following statement for a hypothetical product (bottles of water to be sold in stores under a new label, apparently as a health related product).

_The regular consumption of significant amounts of water can reduce the risk of development of dehydration and of concomitant decrease of performance._​
(Why the techno garble as opposed to plain English?) Asking to clarify their _medical_ claim, the professors ended up saying that dehydration (using other words that meant dehydration) is a risk factor for the disease dehydration. When I taught logic, that was called circular reasoning, not a medical claim. By the way, the application was denied within months after being received. The three years refers to the time period that the professors kept submitting follow up letters asking for this, that, and everything. 

If there had been any serious effort to put health claims on bottles of water I might take this whole thing more seriously, but I take it as an effort to manufacture hysteria and two professors wasted three years of the EU's time to do it. They were being far more silly than the EU. IMHO


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## Talent312 (Jul 7, 2016)

"Roger" said:


> If there had been any serious effort to put health claims on bottles of water I might take this whole thing more seriously, but I take it as an effort to manufacture hysteria and two professors wasted three years of the EU's time to do it. They were being far more silly than the EU. IMHO



Agreed.
It'd be like putting a label on a jar of baked beans saying:
"Prevents diseases associated with starvation."

But then it'd need a warning label as well:
"Excessive use may be harmful to the environment."
.


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## x3 skier (Jul 7, 2016)

Talent312 said:


> Agreed.
> It'd be like putting a label on a jar of baked beans saying:
> "Prevents diseases associated with starvation."
> 
> ...



Very good.

I would note that "wasting 3 years of the EU's time" on this farce might be a good thing since they wouldn't be doing something else.

Cheers


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## Ironwood (Jul 8, 2016)

Andy Murray has made the Wimbledon singles final which will give the Brits something to take their minds off Brexit, but he has to get through Milos Raonic first!


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## dominidude (Oct 11, 2016)

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2016/10/pound-and-fury

The Sterling has since declined by more than 16% against the dollar, to $1.22.

Brexit is a little like Saudi Arabia swearing off the oil business, declaring it would rather work for an honest living even if that makes its people poorer. That might sound noble, though it does make one reflect on the lack of policy imagination that led voters to make themselves poorer so that they could work harder for what they get.


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## x3 skier (Oct 11, 2016)

The Global effects escape me. However, as I'm leaving for London tomorrow, $1.22 to the £ is certainly a nice bonus. 

Cheers


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## CO skier (Nov 9, 2016)

CO skier said:


> The polls less than 24 hours ago predicted no Brexit. That just goes to show how much opinion polls are worth.



"It's like déjà vu all over again." -- Yogi Berra

Final results are not in, but ...


It is still a market of stocks, not a stock market.  If market futures hold (currently down about 700 Dow points, about 3.8%) and the stock market sells off  4-6% at anytime tomorrow, it will be a case of political, not economic, events putting some great companies on sale.

I will be putting some money to work to buy some bargains on good companies with the turn around.


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## klpca (Nov 9, 2016)

CO skier said:


> "It's like déjà vu all over again." -- Yogi Berra
> 
> Final results are not in, but ...
> 
> ...



Yeah - I've been in cash for awhile. I think that there's a buying opportunity tomorrow.


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## VacationForever (Nov 9, 2016)

klpca said:


> Yeah - I've been in cash for awhile. I think that there's a buying opportunity tomorrow.



...mmm insider trading? LOL


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## Roger830 (Nov 9, 2016)

With the stock market extremely high and interest rates extremely low, the stock market might have been looking for a reason to drop. I'd be leery about jumping in too early.

A better strategy might be to sell on any bounce. There are too many uncertainties.


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## klpca (Nov 9, 2016)

sptung said:


> ...mmm insider trading? LOL



 nah, I was only out because I was looking at buying some real estate but in our area it just feels too overpriced. So it has been sitting in cash. Looks like the market has bounced back.


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