# Would it be feasible to create a TUG TS Blue Book?



## CMF (Nov 14, 2005)

I think such a resource would be invaluable to newbies like myself but maybe too much work.  

Please let me know what you think.  I would be willing to lend a hand in the creation of such a resource.  We wouldn't call it a Blue Book of course.


Charles


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## Makai Guy (Nov 14, 2005)

Sounds suspiciously like this (you'll need your TUG member username and password, same as going to Reviews/Ratings):
http://timeshare-users-group.com/tugdb/TUGsale.htm


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## CMF (Nov 14, 2005)

*Not Really*

For instance.  If saw a Marriott Barony Beach platinum at auction and looked at this chart, I would see that there are 5 purchases from the developer between $16,900 and $28,400.  No help.  I could call Seth and he would tell me that Marriott Barony Beach platinums are going are going for X dollars on the resale Market.  That's what I was getting at.

Charles


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## Dave M (Nov 14, 2005)

Like anything else at TUG, it takes someone not only to get such a project started, but also to manage it as an unpaid volunteer on an ongoing basis. Given how many timeshares there are, the many new ones being built and the changing landscape for sales for various resorts, it would appear that such a project would be a full-time endeavor (plus some) for whoever wanted to undertake it.

As it is, some worthwhile projects (e.g., volunteers to write some fairly straightforward TUG Advice articles) are unfulfilled.

Still, if you want to volunteer your time to manage such a project, let us know.


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## CMF (Nov 14, 2005)

*I'm thinking - I'm thinking.*

Being the elitist hog that I am, I would limit the list to the major players, e.g., resorts that have three or more entries in the historical sales chart.  Then, since "I know nothing about birthing babies" or timeshare prices,  I would need to get the actual info from respected sources, e.g., Seth for Marriott prices. I would then update the list every two years by sending an e-mail to a selected group of timeshare resale price mavens.  Are there others like Seth who have their fingers on the pulse of timeshare resale prices?

Charles


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## ginsun88 (Nov 14, 2005)

*TUG Timeshare Sale/Purchase database*

This thread prompted me to enter my resale purchase in the database.  In addition to the purchase price, I added in comments about what the developer is currrently selling that week for.  

I get e-mail from Marriott's Vacation Club Direct.  
	
	



```
For ex., Marriott Hawaii resorts starting at $11,760, only $170 per month.

LOWER COST HAWAII RESORT IDEAS
Maui 1 bedroom island view, every other year, $11,760, only $170 per month.
Kauai Beach Club, 1 bedroom ocean view, every other year, $15,300. 
Kauai Beach Club, 1 bedroom ocean front, every other year, $18,120.

TWO BEDROOM, OCEAN VIEW, HAWAII RESORT IDEAS
Maui, 2 bedroom, ocean view, every year, $49,000.
Ko Olina, Oahu, 2 bedroom ocean view, every year, $41,200.
Waiohai, Kauai, 2 bedroom ocean view, every year, $41,800.
Kauai Beach Club, 2 bedroom ocean view, every year, $40,500.

THREE BEDROOM, OCEAN VIEW, HAWAII RESORT
Ko Olina, 3 bedroom, ocean view, every year, $59,500.

Prices are subject to change without notice.
```

There are so many posts that describe incredible resale purchases which never make it to this database.  Let's brainstorm on how to improve or build upon.


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## JeffV (Nov 14, 2005)

I think your caveats take it out of the realm of usefulness.  


			
				CMF said:
			
		

> Being the elitist hog that I am, I would limit the list to the major players, e.g., resorts that have three or more entries in the historical sales chart.  Then, since "I know nothing about birthing babies" or timeshare prices,  I would need to get the actual info from respected sources, e.g., Seth for Marriott prices. I would then update the list every two years by sending an e-mail to a selected group of timeshare resale price mavens.  Are there others like Seth who have their fingers on the pulse of timeshare resale prices?
> 
> Charles


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## CMF (Nov 14, 2005)

*I don't see how?*

Limiting number or resorts - Not even Consumer Reports includes every product in a given category.

Relying on expert information - This has no bearing on usefulness given that their opinion is well regarded.

Update every two years - It is my understanding that TS resale prices are not like the stock market. If a specific week was worth $10,000 a year ago, it is unlikely that it will be worth $5000 this year.

I think it would be useful for a newbie to understand what those in the know think are fair prices for main stream product.


Charles


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## ondeadlin (Nov 14, 2005)

I'm about a year into assembling a database of eBay ski timeshare sales, mainly in the Vail Valley and Breckenridge, although I watch some others as well.

It's fairly easy, although somewhat labor intensive.

A reseller has put together something called the timeshare bluebook, but it's only for sales. You can find it here:

http://www.triwest-timeshare.com/bluebook/


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## Dave M (Nov 14, 2005)

Charles -

I agree with Jeff. 

Just one example: Limiting your resorts to those that have at least three sales listed in the database would eliminate many of the very resorts that might otherwise be included in your "elite" group. 

Examples of those which would be omitted (all Marriotts): OceanWatch, SurfWatch, Grand Chateau, Fairway Villas, Mountainside, Custom House, Canyon Villas, Shadow Ridge, Timber Lodge, Mountain Valley and Horizons at Branson. All of those resorts - even the newest ones - have had enough resales to generate a reasonably established resale market. I didn't look at Florida, Hawaii or non-U.S. resorts. 

I also doubt that the "reliable" sources would provide much meaningful info from resellers as to resale prices. If I were a reseller, I could imagine various ways that disclosing my averages might hurt me, with very little chance that disclosing that data would help my business.  

I’ll repeat what has already been stated. Although it’s possible to get some of the info you seek, it partially duplicates some of the info already in the TUG sales database and your proposal would be very limited in scope. Thus, I believe it would be less useful to the majority of TUGgers than the current database. However, if you would like to personally undertake such a project, I’m sure that we could find a place for the resulting output, assuming it presents a reasonably fair picture of the resorts you cover.


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## geekette (Nov 14, 2005)

I think there is every chance that any individual timeshare could gain or lose significant value in a year.  Natural disasters, new amenities, developer bankruptcy, major events in the nearby city, special assessments...

Markets change, properties change, popular opinion changes...

Sounds like a lot of work for limited usefulness.  Far easier to post "does $5k sound right for week x at resort y?" and have those with current knowledge speak up.


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## CMF (Nov 14, 2005)

*So nobody knows and nobody tells - is that it?*

What I'm hearing is that the best we have is anecdotal information. That, recognizing a fair price for a timeshare is sort of like knowing how to make good hollandaise from scratch, i.e., experience is key.

Geekette - I realize that a TS can burn to the ground one day.  But otherwise, my understanding is that the other factors you note really do not significantly affect price from one year to another.  And, I agree that it is easier to ask questions, but questions aren't always answered, or answered appropriately.  It is not uncommon for someone to ask for a price of a resort and have someone respond by questioning their decision to buy there. 

Dave - I don't understand how I can be directed to the historical sales database one second and then told that using that list to create a new one diminishes the usefulness of the information.

Lastly, Geekette says "post a question," Dave says "I also doubt that "reliable" sources would provide much meaningful info . . ."  So, even if I ask a question I can't trust the source of the information.

So, where is everyone getting their info when they tell people that they paid too much for this or that week?  Are they making the stuff up? Does anyone really know what a TS week is approximately worth? Oh!  I know! "It's worth what you pay for it if you are happy with the price."   Just don't ask anyone else.

Charles


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## Dave M (Nov 14, 2005)

CMF said:
			
		

> Dave - I don't understand how I can be directed to the historical sales database one second and then told that using that list to create a new one diminishes the usefulness of the information.


The info in that database is useful. However, it's far from complete. There are probably 10 or 15 or more transactions by TUGgers for every one that is reported there. And as my example above suggests, using that database as the basis for your proposed database is not the best place to start. You would eliminate too many resorts that your "elite" database would purport to cover.



> Lastly, Geekette says "post a question," Dave says "I also doubt that "reliable" sources would provide much meaningful info . . ."  So, even if I ask a question I can't trust the source of the information.


Neither of us said anything that is contradictory, as you seem to suggest.

Sorry to be tough on you but now it appears that you're making up stuff because you don't like being told that some of us think your proposal would involve a lot of effort for not much apparent benefit. 

My comment related to the fact that I believe it would be difficult to cull more than anecdotal info from resellers. And how much of what they would be willing to share would be accurate is anyone's guess. Those who have been around here for a while can pretty much guess the fair resale value for most timeshares, particularly with a bit of investigation regarding current asking prices and the knowledge that 90% or more of sellers overprice their week when setting an asking price. *geekette*'s suggestion is reality and makes sense as a piece of the due diligence you should do for any timeshare for which you are considering a purchase or a sale. 



> So, where is everyone getting their info when they tell people that they paid too much for this or that week?


Personal experience with purchases and sales. Experience of friends – and you would be amazed at how much communication there is among TUGgers via e-mail, at TUG gatherings and even on a cruise! Researching other sites. Reviewing the TUG sales database. Remembering or researching or saving what has been posted here over the years. The knowledge, based on the collective experience here that, for example, a strong Marriott week will typically sell on the resale market for about 50%-65% of current developer prices. Etc.



> Does anyone really know what a TS week is approximately worth? Oh! I know! "It's worth what you pay for it if you are happy with the price."


There is a fair amount of truth to that. Why? Because there is no single established market price for resale timeshares. The timeshare market is not like the stock market where you know with a fraction of a dollar what your price will be if you buy or sell today. It's more like a flea market where buyer and seller each have their own - often very different - perception of value. If the two can negotiate a price somewhere in between those perceived values there will be a deal. But a different buyer and seller will arrive at a very different price on the same day.

Thus, your proposed database may have anecdotal value for the relatively few resorts covered by it, but the true value is what two very different thinking people happen to agree upon.  

Lastly, as I have already stated, if you want to undertake this project, please do it! But please don't be rude (my perception, based on your current "tone") to those who take their time to offer advice to questions you have posed.


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## spatenfloot (Nov 16, 2005)

Posting on the message boards and reviewing Ebay and other website listings is really the best way to find out approximately what you should pay. 

Geekette listed very valid reasons for reconsidering a purchase. You would not want to pay last year's prices for a TS with significant assessments (Polo Towers is paying $1200) or which might not be usable for a couple years due to hurricanes, etc like Morritt's in the Caymans was or still is.


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