# Large DVC Annual Dues Increase for 2019



## littlestar

DVC annual dues/maintenance fees are going up a lot for 2019. Looks like it is due, for the most part, to the new hourly wage of $15.00. Not sure if this is a one-time hit or not for the rise to $15.00 an hour:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/proposed-2019-disney-vacation-club-annual-dues/


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## TravelTime

Here’s another article:

https://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/d...29-sharp-increases-to-hit-owners-in-2019-dues


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## TravelTime

littlestar said:


> DVC annual dues/maintenance fees are going up a lot for 2019. Looks like it is due, for the most part, to the new hourly wage of $15.00. Not sure if this is a one-time hit or not for the rise to $15.00 an hour:
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/proposed-2019-disney-vacation-club-annual-dues/



If it is due to increased wages, then this shows exactly how a higher minimum wage causes inflation in the economy so eventually the value of $15 goes away and it will need to raised again.


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## bizaro86

Probably can expect significant increases next year as well. Some of the rise doesn't go into effect until September, so that will affect 2019 much more than 2018. Plus it goes up another $1 in 2019 and then another $1 in 2020...

A few years of big dues increases and expiration getting to be a factor could finally see DVC prices turn, especially if the economy turns.


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## Sandy VDH

bizaro86 said:


> Probably can expect significant increases next year as well. Some of the rise doesn't go into effect until September, so that will affect 2019 much more than 2018. Plus it goes up another $1 in 2019 and then another $1 in 2020...
> 
> A few years of big dues increases and expiration getting to be a factor could finally see DVC prices turn, especially if the economy turns.




For smarter people, but there will always be the ones the drink the Disney cool-aid.


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## TravelTime

I am not sure why liking Disney means one is drinking the Disney kool aid. I actually did not like Disney when I bought it but I now like it a lot after visiting a few times and in diffferent locations. I was going to sell all my DVC timeshares but held on because the Disney bubble truly is magical and unlike anywhere else.


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## TravelTime

I know I will be crucified for saying this. I am not surprised by the huge MF increases at Disney. Compared to my other timeshares, I have been thinking Disney is not that expensive. I was surprised by how affordable the MFs are at DVC relative to rentals. It does not surprise me that Disney is increasing MFs this much in what is the hottest economy in my history. We own the most points in the DVC resorts that are not increasing as much. So for us, the increase will not be as much on average. I am concerned that this may affect resale values since we were thinking of selling in the next couple of years. I suspect though that the bigger problem with resale values will be the impending recession in 2020+.


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## rickandcindy23

Impending recession?  Please tell me it ain't so!   There will be a market correction, and it will affect some people to the point where they will sell and maybe the price of DVC will tank again.  Maybe I can buy more DVC Points?


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## TravelTime

rickandcindy23 said:


> Impending recession?  Please tell me it ain't so!   There will be a market correction, and it will affect some people to the point where they will sell and maybe the price of DVC will tank again.  Maybe I can buy more DVC Points?



We are having market corrections now. Housing and the stock market are correcting as I type. The economy has been growing since 2009, although many people do not feel it. At some point, there has to be another recession.


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## Jason245

bizaro86 said:


> Probably can expect significant increases next year as well. Some of the rise doesn't go into effect until September, so that will affect 2019 much more than 2018. Plus it goes up another $1 in 2019 and then another $1 in 2020...
> 
> A few years of big dues increases and expiration getting to be a factor could finally see DVC prices turn, especially if the economy turns.


I have been doing the math for a few years now on this and the economics on dvc ownership haven't made sense and won't make sense for anyone ever because dvc keeps exercising rofr to keep the market proped up.. 

They are the only company that does this and based on my more in depth view of thr company they will probably never stop... 

Sucks for me as I will probably never buy.. good on them and their customers.  

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


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## bnoble

Jason245 said:


> won't make sense for anyone ever because dvc keeps exercising rofr to keep the market proped up..


It's the opposite. ROFR follows demand, not the other way around. During the crash, DVC had all but abandoned it.


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## rickandcindy23

Other hotel-managed timeshares have ROFR.  I am pretty sure Hilton does, and of course Marriott and Westin do as well, same with Hyatt.  It's not exclusive to Disney.  

I love Disney.  I hope the price goes back down to $50 per point again (resale), so I can buy more.


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## TravelTime

Jason245 said:


> I have been doing the math for a few years now on this and the economics on dvc ownership haven't made sense and won't make sense for anyone ever because dvc keeps exercising rofr to keep the market proped up..
> 
> They are the only company that does this and based on my more in depth view of thr company they will probably never stop...
> 
> Sucks for me as I will probably never buy.. good on them and their customers.
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk



DVC rarely exercises ROFR. I bought into Aulani at less than half the retail price. The market demand drives resale prices. I paid a lot for Grand Cal resale due to the market, not due to ROFR.


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## TravelTime

rickandcindy23 said:


> Other hotel-managed timeshares have ROFR.  I am pretty sure Hilton does, and of course Marriott and Westin do as well, same with Hyatt.  It's not exclusive to Disney.
> 
> I love Disney.  I hope the price goes back down to $50 per point again (resale), so I can buy more.



Maybe in the next depression.


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## Dean

Jason245 said:


> I have been doing the math for a few years now on this and the economics on dvc ownership haven't made sense and won't make sense for anyone ever because dvc keeps exercising rofr to keep the market proped up..
> 
> They are the only company that does this and based on my more in depth view of thr company they will probably never stop...
> 
> Sucks for me as I will probably never buy.. good on them and their customers.
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk


One has to compare DVC to staying on property using cash.  If staying on property isn't worth an uncharge for a given person, DVC will never make sense for anyone, even those who bought when the market was lower.  There will be a pullback at some point but if there's a fire sale it's unlikely any most could buy in anyway as the economy or the company would be in the tank.  At the current levels it does make less sense that at other times historically.


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## DannyTS

Yesterday a 200 Magic Kingdom was sold for 12100


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## Panina

DannyTS said:


> Yesterday a 200 Magic Kingdom was sold for 12100
> 
> View attachment 9198


Probably won’t pass rofr


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## DannyTS

Panina said:


> Probably won’t pass rofr


i am not even sure why it was on ebay. the auction started at zero so the owner took a big risk


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## TravelTime

Why would someone sell a contract for AK on eBay for $60 a point?

The resale rate is $100-$120 per point for a 200 point contract (more for smaller contracts).

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/animal-kingdom-lodge/

Even the cheapest contract on Fidelity is $97 and they tend to have the fire sales.
https://www.fidelityresales.com/resort/disneys-animal-kingdom-lodge-villas

Buying direct from Disney is $171.


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## frank808

DannyTS said:


> Yesterday a 200 Magic Kingdom was sold for 12100
> 
> View attachment 9198


Disney just got more points at AKL to sell for $171 a point.  Someone on the waitlist to buy at AKL will be getting a call from their guide.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


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## JulieAB

Jason245 said:


> I have been doing the math for a few years now on this and the economics on dvc ownership haven't made sense and won't make sense for anyone ever because dvc keeps exercising rofr to keep the market proped up..



I agree with much of this.  We stayed off-site in timeshares for years because we were on a budget.  But once we had the means, I reached a point last summer at Disneyland while waiting in line for the buses where I was SO OVER it.  I decided I had spent enough time in various Disney bus, parking, and tram lines the past 20 years and it was time to buy VGC.  I did the math, and while the lifetime cost was higher than what we were paying off-site, it wasn't as much as I thought it would be (and it would've been even less had we bought SSR).  At my age, that added cost is totally worth not spending another minute in one of those bus lines!  And with the addition of Star Wars land next year, I fully expect there to be major perks to staying on site!


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## bendadin

I bought from Fidelity in 2015. AKV for $85/point. The chatter chatter on the boards is that these few really low contracts were BK, so deeds have the propensity to be rather tainted which you can't see that upfront. So there is risk but payoff if it works out well. 

I just sold one of my contracts. My kids don't want to stay at Disney any longer, but I do like the annual pass discount. But we started cruising on Disney, so they are now over it. Sigh!


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## TravelTime

bendadin said:


> I bought from Fidelity in 2015. AKV for $85/point. The chatter chatter on the boards is that these few really low contracts were BK, so deeds have the propensity to be rather tainted which you can't see that upfront. So there is risk but payoff if it works out well.
> 
> I just sold one of my contracts. My kids don't want to stay at Disney any longer, but I do like the annual pass discount. But we started cruising on Disney, so they are now over it. Sigh!



What do you mean by BK and tainted?


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## DannyTS

it is interesting that contracts continue to be sold on ebay and sometimes won at even lower prices: 250 annual points for $5625. Since it is  the end of the year, some of these purchases may escape ROFR. Good for the buyers!


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## rickandcindy23

DannyTS said:


> it is interesting that contracts continue to be sold on ebay and sometimes won at even lower prices: 250 annual points for $5625. Since it is  the end of the year, some of these purchases may escape ROFR. Good for the buyers!
> View attachment 9275


No way is that going to make it through ROFR.  Disney will love to get those points back and sell them for about $170 per point.  I should be bidding on eBay, just in case you are right.


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## frank808

DannyTS said:


> it is interesting that contracts continue to be sold on ebay and sometimes won at even lower prices: 250 annual points for $5625. Since it is  the end of the year, some of these purchases may escape ROFR. Good for the buyers!
> View attachment 9275


Unless the broker files a rofr with $20k+ selling price, DVC will snatch this up.  There is no way this will pass rofr at $28 a point.  Even during the great recession this might not have made it past rofr.  

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


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## bnoble

Maybe. Depends on whether or not they have a buyer or not. DVC is not trying to prop up prices. They are only trying to feed their inventory needs. As DannyTS alludes to, the end-of-year volume may work in this buyer's favor. If not, they only lose a little time.


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## bogey21

Will someone pick a DVC Resort and convert the cost per point to what the MF would be if based on owning a Week the old fashioned way.  Any Resort is fine  I am just curious...

George


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## TheHolleys87

bogey21 said:


> Will someone pick a DVC Resort and convert the cost per point to what the MF would be if based on owning a Week the old fashioned way.  Any Resort is fine  I am just curious...
> 
> George



It's a little complicated due to point costs per night being different related to weekday vs. weekend as well as based on season (for instance, nights around Thanksgiving are more expensive than nights earlier that week).  However, for our home resort of Boardwalk Villas, which in 2019 will cost $7.1722/point, Thanksgiving week from Saturday before to Saturday after will be 312 points for a preferred view 2-bedroom unit (overlooking the Boardwalk or the pool or gardens), or $2238 in MFs.  The following week, Sunday December 1 to Sunday December 8, is one of the lowest point costs for the entire year, so that same 2-bedroom unit would be 269 points or $1929 in MFs.

Other size units, different views, and different resorts have different point costs per night.  BWV, being older, has some of the lowest point costs per night.


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## pedro47

What is the average cost per night to stay at a DVC resort.


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## TravelTime

You can use this link to look up points per night and MF by resort, season, room size and view category. It varies a lot depending on these factors. It can be super cheap if you go low season in a studio or super expensive if you book a 2 or 3 bedroom during high season with a view in the most expensive resorts. The points per night can range from 9 points a night to 100s of points per night. Based on 2018 MFs, I usually multiplied by $7 to calculate an average price per night although for the Tuggers who require details, you can get more precise with this chart:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/point-charts/


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## Dean

bogey21 said:


> Will someone pick a DVC Resort and convert the cost per point to what the MF would be if based on owning a Week the old fashioned way.  Any Resort is fine  I am just curious...
> 
> George


DVC is more flexible than most so if one is able to use DVC in a different way such as different sizes or less than a week, the value increases.  Using round numbers and making assumptions DVC cost of 300 points at $30K and yearly dues in the range of $2000 (SSR) for a 2 BR.  Marriott Trust Points for 3000 at around $15K and yearly dues in the $1800.  Legacy Grande Vista at around $2=4000 and yearly dues at around $1350.  You also have to include the future dues increase and the TVM/Opportunity costs.  I'm not where I can run out the numbers for long term right now but large picture view Trust points for Marriott would be around the same as DVC but give much better none Disney options.  DVC gives on property options.  A legacy week will be MUCH cheaper over time, guessing dues alone will be a $20K difference over 20 years and the up front difference in the range of $60000 if you would have the money invested so approaching a 6 figure difference over 20 yrs.


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## bogey21

Thanks all...

George


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## TravelTime

I understand Dean’s analysis and agree. I think DVC is a premium product. Dean compared the most cost effective DVC product (SSR), although at a pretty high number of points. If you compare Grand Floridian lake view or Animal Kingdom savannah view (my favorite DVC resorts and view categories) to an Orlando Marriott, especially a legacy Marriott week, the delta woud be even greater. Both DVC and MVC (points) make no sense from a pure financial perspective.

DVC is likely to only be with me for 2-5 years max since it does not really fit my vacation patterns. I bought it for family members, not for myself. I am finding DVC to be a lot of fun so I decided not to sell right away. Most people who buy DVC enjoy it for emotional and convenience reasons that are unquantifiable. Where else (outside of a safari) can you wake up and sit on your balcony and watch all the animals while sipping tea in the morning. Disney is an experience in and of itself that you do not get staying offsite. It will almost always be more cost effective to stay offsite at Vistana or Marriott or elsewhere.

In my case, I would do the analysis differently and compare timeshares to my previous vacations. I used to spend at least double the average MF for any of the places I go now. So based on my usage patterns, I am likely saving in the 6 figures over 20 years no matter what timeshares I own. However, vacationers like me do not to a NPV analysis on vacation spending.

From reading many of the DVC posts, it appears there are not many Tuggers who own DVC. Many of the comments and questions in the various DVC threads seem to be from non-owners. It is very easy to calculate the cost per week in various room types with the chart I posted several times. But we keep getting the same questions about cost.


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## ljmiii

When people ask me if it is worth buying DVC I ask three questions - Do you need to stay 'on property', can you plan 7 and ideally 11 months in advance, and do you plan to visit WDW at least every other year for the next 10 years. Only if the answer to all of these questions is "Yes" should you really consider buying DVC.

And so asking how much DVC costs vs MVCI isn't that useful a question. MVCI will always be cheaper...much cheaper if you buy and use an Orlando resale week. The real question is how much DVC costs vs the price of paying cash to stay at a WDW resort - really a DVC resort if you want to stay in a 1, 2, or 3BR villa. 

The kicker being that if you really want to stay 'on property' and you really want to stay in a multi-room villa and you really want to stay at a 'Peak time' - e.g. President's week, Easter, or Christmas/New Years - cash villas are nearly impossible to find.


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## TravelTime

I agree. As a DVC owner using my points at Grand Floridian, their flagship resort, I would pay about $350-$400 in MFs per night for a 1 bedroom villa with lake view vs $1000 to $1500 a night as a cash pay customer reserving through Disney directly. Or you could rent points from a broker or another member for at least double above the MF. Marriott does not compare.


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## Dean

DVC is a somewhat unique situation.  It's a crossover between timeshare oriented people and Disney oriented people.  The 2 groups will look at it differently.  The Disney group will tend to stay on property for cash and not have much consideration for other timeshares.  Sometimes they cross over, there are a number of examples here on TUG of people that started out with DVC as a Disney only though then branched out, I'd include myself in that group although it's been over 20 years since that conversion took place.  As such DVC can save money but it really depends on what you compare it to.  IMO, comparing to what the same unit would have cost on cash is a fools comparison other than just for fun.  The 2 proper potential comparisons if on property is the goal are what one would have paid on discounted cash or renting aftermarket.  For some I'd add in the non DVC options to the mix as well.


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## ljmiii

Dean said:


> The 2 proper potential comparisons if on property is the goal are what one would have paid on discounted cash or renting aftermarket.


I'm certainly familiar with renting aftermarket...and have rented out my points on occasion. However, when I've been shy of points and tried to get DVC reservations for the dates I need - President's week, Easter, or Christmas/New Years - I've come up empty and had to stay off property.

But I'm very curious...how do you get a discounted cash stay? Through Disney or someone else?


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## TravelTime

I think every person has a different spending pattern. For example, I would never purchase points on the after market, rent from someone else, or stay offsite if my goal were to go to WDW. Call me a fool then.


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## TravelTime

For anyone who is wondering why people are selling DVC contracts on eBay, you may want to look at this agent’s ROFR report to get an idea at what price DVC might exercise. 

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-rofr-november-18-report/


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## Dean

ljmiii said:


> I'm certainly familiar with renting aftermarket...and have rented out my points on occasion. However, when I've been shy of points and tried to get DVC reservations for the dates I need - President's week, Easter, or Christmas/New Years - I've come up empty and had to stay off property.
> 
> But I'm very curious...how do you get a discounted cash stay? Through Disney or someone else?


All cash rentals ultimately go through Disney but there are ways to get discounted cash stays.  They are often offered directly to guests who have stayed on property previously, based on the area (FL, CA, sometimes other states, CAN, UK), pass holders, military, Disney CC holders and AAA come to mind.  Plus there are codes that anyone can use if you find out what they are.  And there are specials like free dining with a full price room.  DVC owners also get a 25% discount on DVC rooms on cash subject to availability.  



TravelTime said:


> I think every person has a different spending pattern. For example, I would never purchase points on the after market, rent from someone else, or stay offsite if my goal were to go to WDW. Call me a fool then.


If you're saying one should only buy retail and never rent privately to stay, consider yourself labeled.


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## TravelTime

Dean said:


> All cash rentals ultimately go through Disney but there are ways to get discounted cash stays.  They are often offered directly to guests who have stayed on property previously, based on the area (FL, CA, sometimes other states, CAN, UK), pass holders, military, Disney CC holders and AAA come to mind.  Plus there are codes that anyone can use if you find out what they are.  And there are specials like free dining with a full price room.  DVC owners also get a 25% discount on DVC rooms on cash subject to availability.
> 
> If you're saying one should only buy retail and never rent privately to stay, consider yourself labeled.



No need to get nasty.


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## Dean

TravelTime said:


> No need to get nasty.


Not nasty, just agreeing with you.  I take it that was your point then.

ETA:  I wasn’t trying to be mean but I really couldn’t believe anyone could say buy only retail and rent only cash direct with a straight face.  I assumed you were being tongue in cheek.


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## TravelTime

It does not really matter what we compare to, since it does not change what we pay as a DVC owner. I do think people have different frames of reference based on what they would have rented, if they were not an owner. That is okay. It is okay for some of us to be “fools” because we have other priorities so convenience and experience are more important and others to be “wiser” because you are able and willing to optimize your every dollar. I will proudly wear the “FOOL” hat.


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## TravelTime

Dean said:


> Not nasty, just agreeing with you.  I take it that was your point then.
> 
> ETA:  I wasn’t trying to be mean but I really couldn’t believe anyone could say buy only retail and rent only cash direct with a straight face.  I assumed you were being tongue in cheek.



I used to buy all my vacations on Expedia or direct from the hotels. So yes, many of us are coming to timesharing with a different frame of reference. I am saying this with a straight face. No joking. However, shouldn’t TUG be happy to hear I have gained wisdom now? My frame of reference is still what I would do or would have done if I did not own timeshares. Not what you would do because I never did what you did before owning timeshares. Does that make sense?

P.S. I never said people should buy only retail or rent only cash. All I said was my frame of reference was retail and cash. Now that I am a Tugger, this is foolish. But I have seen the light now, thanks to TUG.

P.S.S. If I need to rent a hotel room, even now, I do look for the best deals, but I still rent from Marriott to get points. If it is a non-Marriott owned resort, then I simply compare Expedia (or similar online TAs) vs renting directly from the hotel. If you want to stay in a hotel, those are truly the only options. If there are other ways to get discounts on hotel rooms, I would love to know.


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## TravelTime

Dean said:


> Not nasty, just agreeing with you.  I take it that was your point then.
> 
> ETA:  I wasn’t trying to be mean but I really couldn’t believe anyone could say buy only retail and rent only cash direct with a straight face.  I assumed you were being tongue in cheek.



This is what I said that caused you to react:
“I think every person has a different spending pattern. For example, I would never purchase points on the after market, rent from someone else, or stay offsite if my goal were to go to WDW. Call me a fool then.”

Then you responded:
“If you are saying one should buy retail and never rent privately to stay, consider yourself labeled.”

Sounds nasty to me.

We all have different frames of reference and different needs. That is why TUG can be great. We will never always agree but no need to get defensive.


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## Dean

TravelTime said:


> This is what I said that caused you to react:
> “I think every person has a different spending pattern. For example, I would never purchase points on the after market, rent from someone else, or stay offsite if my goal were to go to WDW. Call me a fool then.”
> 
> Then you responded:
> “If you are saying one should buy retail and never rent privately to stay, consider yourself labeled.”
> 
> Sounds nasty to me.
> 
> We all have different frames of reference and different needs. That is why TUG can be great. We will never always agree but no need to get defensive.


It wasn’t intended as nasty or mean and the short written postings are difficult to convey subtleties, I almost added LOL to be honest.  Since you took it personally, I apologize for that.  Still my opinion for anyone that believes buying DVC retail is the only way to go in general would be much more strongly than what you reacted negatively to.  Are there reasons and situation where it makes sense or is the right choice, absolutely but not for the the exchange options, maybe for the perks for certain situations for a smaller total number of points.


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## TravelTime

Dean said:


> It wasn’t intended as nasty or mean and the short written postings are difficult to convey subtleties, I almost added LOL to be honest.  Since you took it personally, I apologize for that.  Still my opinion for anyone that believes buying DVC retail is the only way to go in general would be much more strongly than what you reacted negatively to.  Are there reasons and situation where it makes sense or is the right choice, absolutely but not for the the exchange options, maybe for the perks for certain situations for a smaller total number of points.



I generally agree with your POV. Thank you for clarifying. I am glad you did not have any mean intentions. I really appreciate your explanation of what you meant.

I think it is best to buy DVC resale. I bought the majority of my DVC contracts resale and I have purchased all my other timeshares resale. I would not pay cash to stay at DVC or even Marriott. If I were not a DVC owner, I would not bother with Disney at all. So all in all, we are in agreement. 

All I was trying to say is that my point of comparison is different than yours. You have been a timeshare owner for 20 years and I am a newbie. I am overjoyed to have found TUG and to be saving so much money now and being able to stay in bigger and better accommodations for half or less the cost of a hotel room.


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## Dean

TravelTime said:


> I generally agree with your POV. Thank you for clarifying. I am glad you did not have any mean intentions. I really appreciate your explanation of what you meant.
> 
> I think it is best to buy DVC resale. I bought the majority of my DVC contracts resale and I have purchased all my other timeshares resale. I would not pay cash to stay at DVC or even Marriott. If I were not a DVC owner, I would not bother with Disney at all. So all in all, we are in agreement.
> 
> All I was trying to say is that my point of comparison is different than yours. You have been a timeshare owner for 20 years and I am a newbie. I am overjoyed to have found TUG and to be saving so much money now and being able to stay in bigger and better accommodations for half or less the cost of a hotel room.


It's all good and discussion, even with disagreement, is often helpful for others.  And truthfully I'm more likely to write a post with others in mind that the person I'm responding to.  It's interesting that timeshares in general and DVC in particular tend to lead to emotional decisions that aren't the best from otherwise bright, calculating people and I'd include myself in that.  I think back over the years and I've made some very good decisions in timeshares and some that weren't as good but in many ways there was a significant element of luck involved.  I have few regrets but I have a few, one Marriott purchase that could have been reasonable had the DC points not overshadowed it and a couple I should have purchased but didn't, VWL at $42/pt for 160 points and a Platinum Aruba Ocean Club 2 BR a number of years ago.  I did regret somewhat a Harbour Pointe purchase but I divested myself of that for what I had in it.  The other component is every situation is different but if one tries to cover every variation, you end up with noting so I stick to big picture principles that are almost always true but there might be variability.  For example, there are situations where it makes sense to buy DVC retail assuming buying in at all makes sense.  Merry Xmas.


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## Lisa P

TravelTime said:


> I used to buy all my vacations on Expedia or direct from the hotels. ... If I need to rent a hotel room, even now, I do look for the best deals, but I still rent from Marriott to get points.





TravelTime said:


> I would not pay cash to stay at DVC or even Marriott.


Do you mean that you do pay cash to stay in Marriott hotel rooms but would not pay cash to stay in Marriott timeshares? The cash rates for renting most timeshare condos are generally pretty steep. It seems like it would be easier and a better deal to pay cash for a hotel suite or a special room package than to rent timeshare condos from the management company. I can see someone adding a cash night to a timeshare points stay to avoid moving rooms between two linked reservations though.



Dean said:


> ...discussion, even with disagreement, is often helpful for others.  And truthfully I'm more likely to write a post with others in mind that the person I'm responding to. ... every situation is different but if one tries to cover every variation, you end up with noting so I stick to big picture principles that are almost always true but there might be variability. ... Merry Xmas.


So true.


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## TravelTime

Lisa P said:


> Do you mean that you do pay cash to stay in Marriott hotel rooms but would not pay cash to stay in Marriott timeshares? The cash rates for renting most timeshare condos are generally pretty steep. It seems like it would be easier and a better deal to pay cash for a hotel suite or a special room package than to rent timeshare condos from the management company. I can see someone adding a cash night to a timeshare points stay to avoid moving rooms between two linked reservations though.
> 
> 
> So true.



No, I did not mean that at all. These days, I only stay in hotels in places where I can’t use a timeshare. Most of my vacations are planned around using timeshares since I own so many now and all my home resorts are enrolled in MVC. What I meant is sometimes we may go somewhere that does not have timeshares like French Polynesia as an example. In that case, I would lean toward using Expedia or renting through the hotel directly. If there are Marriott affiliated resorts, I would also explore staying at one of these so I can get reward points and other benefits since I am Platinum Premier Elite. I doubt I would ever rent a timeshare since I have so many points programs and other options that I can barely use them all every year.


----------



## DannyTS

some  keep on winning DVC auctions at low prices. Whether they pass ROFR or not is another discussion. Has anyone noticed DVC listings before on Ebay? I do not remember to have seen any until recently.


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## frank808

DannyTS said:


> some  keep on winning DVC auctions at low prices. Whether they pass ROFR or not is another discussion. Has anyone noticed DVC listings before on Ebay? I do not remember to have seen any until recently.
> 
> View attachment 9375


Have seen them on ebay since 2008.  That is when I first searched for them. Probably have been listed on Ebay before that.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


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## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> some  keep on winning DVC auctions at low prices. Whether they pass ROFR or not is another discussion. Has anyone noticed DVC listings before on Ebay? I do not remember to have seen any until recently.
> 
> View attachment 9375



You may want to check and see if the eBay auctions are being run by timeshare agents. As I understand, agents get paid their commission even if DVC exercises ROFR. There has been some speculation that these eBay auctions may be run by agents taking advantage of clueless DVC owners. Or perhaps there is some other thing going on. If these eBay auctions are legit, it is likely DVC will exercise ROFR. Most of the eBay listings have tended to be for the resorts that Disney is most likely to exercise ROFR i.e. Saratoga, Old Key West and Animal Kingdom.

Tra3213 is selling all different timeshare brands including the low ball Disney timeshares. He must be an agent. His profile is from June 2018. Also, he has a lot of reviews and they mostly say the same thing: “great service” by the same buyer. I am curious who this seller is.

Great Service! Buyer:
s***r ( 39
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




) 
During past 6 months
  -- -- Private


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## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> You may want to check and see if the eBay auctions are being run by timeshare agents. As I understand, agents get paid their commission even if DVC exercises ROFR. There has been some speculation that these eBay auctions may be run by agents taking advantage of clueless DVC owners. Or perhaps there is some other thing going on. If these eBay auctions are legit, it is likely DVC will exercise ROFR. Most of the eBay listings have tended to be for the resorts that Disney is most likely to exercise ROFR i.e. Saratoga, Old Key West and Animal Kingdom.
> 
> Tra3213 is selling all different timeshare brands. He must be an agent.


He is an agent, 100%, i have seen many other listings with this name. However, i have seen other sellers/agents listing DVC on ebay. 
I am not sure though that DVC does ROFR 100% of the low prices. It surely wants to create that impression but who knows what the reality is.


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## TravelTime

I saw an Animal Kingdom listed on eBay through another seller. The highest bid right now is $10,200 for 250 points. The owner has been past due since April 2018 so the buyer will need to pay all 2018 MFs as well as the 2019 MFs that are due now so this will add about $4000 plus closing costs. It has 250 banked in points and 23 borrowed that the buyer will need to pay for. These points will expire on April 2019 so the new buyer many not have time to use them. 

It makes no sense to use eBay to sell since owners could sell through Fidelity Resales and get it sold quickly at a low price. Perhaps there is a reason for some DVC sellers to resort to eBay. It sounds like the owner of this AK contract is distressed. This one appears to be in bankruptcy and may be an estate sale from the description. I wonder if the reputable DVC resellers will not take contracts in bankruptcy or with past due payments.


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## TravelTime

Disney does not ROFR 100%. It is more likely to exercise ROFR at Saratoga Springs, Old Key West and Animal Kingdom. No one exercises ROFR 100%. Some contracts always slip through. I just do not understand why a seller would sell for so low when there is an active resale market through reputable DVC brokers. It is harder to sell big contracts so this might be why. I suspect the reputable brokers are not going to want to sell this low because it would affect all their other sales and reputable brokers get a percentage based commission. So perhaps some of these contracts are legit and being sold by distressed sellers. I may bid on one and see what happens!


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## Lisa P

TravelTime said:


> Most of the eBay listings have tended to be for the resorts that Disney is most likely to exercise ROFR i.e. Saratoga, Old Key West and Animal Kingdom.


Is this so? Those 3 are the largest, easiest to book resorts. I would have thought that Disney would be most likely to exercise ROFR on the smaller, more popular resorts with limited inventory for sale.


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## TravelTime

Lisa P said:


> Is this so? Those 3 are the largest, easiest to book resorts. I would have thought that Disney would be most likely to exercise ROFR on the smaller, more popular resorts with limited inventory for sale.



Yes I posted the link to DVCResaleMarket.com that shows which resorts DVC is most likely to buy back. I suspect DVC does not need to buy back the expensive resorts since they maintain their prices based on supply and demand.


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## TravelTime

I just saw another eBay auction for 200 points. It is up to $14,400 now with 72 bidders so far. It is also a distressed seller who is past due on MF payments and it might also be an estate sale. It looks like it is the same seller of the Animal Kingdom contract. Perhaps this is why these people are willing to sell so low. This contract was originally purchased for under $10,000.


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## TravelTime

The Animal Kingdom contract went from $10,200 a little while ago to over $17,300 right now. The seller purchased for $19,000. So it seems this seller will make a profit no matter what. The AK contract still has 29 days left for bidding. By the time this closes, it will be too late to use the banked 2018 points so the seller will be paying an additional $2000 for unusable points. The contract opened yesterday at $1000. This contract is now approaching the normal resale price. I would not bid on this one at this point because the risks involved with a bankruptcy would scare me off, unless it were a super cheap contract.


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## Panina

Like some people don’t know about the timeshare resale market and buy from the developer, my guess is, some dvc owners don’t relize the value dvc has and they make a call to an agent and lists with them.


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## Dean

TravelTime said:


> Disney does not ROFR 100%. It is more likely to exercise ROFR at Saratoga Springs, Old Key West and Animal Kingdom. No one exercises ROFR 100%. Some contracts always slip through. I just do not understand why a seller would sell for so low when there is an active resale market through reputable DVC brokers. It is harder to sell big contracts so this might be why. I suspect the reputable brokers are not going to want to sell this low because it would affect all their other sales and reputable brokers get a percentage based commission. So perhaps some of these contracts are legit and being sold by distressed sellers. I may bid on one and see what happens!


I don't think that's what the numbers say.  DVC buys back largely to avoid fire sales but also to control prices when they can make a profit.  OKW is special because of the extension.  There are more sales at OKW, AKV & SSR so there will be more opportunities.  Some resorts are also going to be easier to sell and for a higher price.  Basically a given resale is likely to be one of those resorts and those resorts will tend to be for a lower price.  It's not that their inherently more likely to take those 3 resorts all else being proportional.


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## DannyTS

as we know, the prices of a timeshare can vary quite a bit. I do not know if anyone can say that anything is worth exactly $X. You can buy a week for 2k (not DVC specifically), the next guy is going to pay 5 and the third one 3. Maybe I am exaggerating a bit but i do not think the market is as level as DVC may want us to believe. 

Good to know though that people have been buying DVC contracts on Ebay.


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## TravelTime

Dean said:


> I don't think that's what the numbers say.  DVC buys back largely to avoid fire sales but also to control prices when they can make a profit.  OKW is special because of the extension.  There are more sales at OKW, AKV & SSR so there will be more opportunities.  Some resorts are also going to be easier to sell and for a higher price.  Basically a given resale is likely to be one of those resorts and those resorts will tend to be for a lower price.  It's not that their inherently more likely to take those 3 resorts all else being proportional.



The data posted by DVCResaleMarket.com showed that the percentage of buy backs were much higher at these 3 resorts. I would never base this on the total number since that number is meaningless.


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## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> The data posted by DVCResaleMarket.com showed that the percentage of buy backs were much higher at these 3 resorts. I would never base this on the total number since that number is meaningless.


how reliable are those numbers?


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## TravelTime

I do not see many DVC contracts on eBay except some that are at the normal resale price and some that are being sold by distressed sellers and those are approaching the normal resale price. I am sure there are always going to be some excellent deals on eBay for all timeshares. I saw some great deals for Marriott and Westin too that are well below the resale prices advertised on Redweek. Personally, I would be very unlikely to buy on eBay unless it were an extremely low priced deal where the benefit is worth the risk.


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## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> how reliable are those numbers?



I posted the link so you can judge for yourself. I don’t know the answer. It is only data for one reputable reseller so it does not represent the entire market. This reseller posts his data every month so it is reliable for his sales but I doubt it represents the entire market.


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## Panina

DannyTS said:


> as we know, the prices of a timeshare can vary quite a bit. I do not know if anyone can say that anything is worth exactly $X. You can buy a week for 2k (not DVC specifically), the next guy is going to pay 5 and the third one 3. Maybe I am exaggerating a bit but i do not think the market is as level as DVC may want us to believe.
> 
> Good to know though that people have been buying DVC contracts on Ebay.


Exactly, prices vary lots even on the resale market.  I always hope I got one of the best prices.


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## TravelTime

Panina said:


> Exactly, prices vary lots even on the resale market.  I always hope I got one of the best prices.



There is a lot of variation in resale prices for DVC. I am not arguing about that at all. All I am saying is if someone is selling for half the lowest resale price on the market, there must be a reason they are willing to sell so low. Even a distressed owner could price 5% below the lowest resale price out there and get a much better price than from an eBay auction and do so very quickly.

If there are any distressed DVC owners reading this, I would recommend selling through Fidelity over eBay. We purchased one of our DVC contracts for less than half the retail price and it was also priced $10-$20 per point less than the next most expensive DVC contracts for this resort. I have seen up to $50+ per point variations in the “normal” DVC resale market depending on contract size and other variables.

If I saw a Marriott or Vistana Maui unit for sale for $0-$1000 on eBay, I would also question why the seller is doing that. For all timeshares, there is an established resale price range. Not just Disney so not sure why Disney is being singled out. I saw a super cheap Marriott Newport Coast Platinum 2 BR on eBay today. The highest bid right now is under $1000. On Redweek, the cheapest equivalent unit is over $8000.


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## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> There is a lot of variation in resale prices for DVC. I am not arguing about that at all. All I am saying is if someone is selling for half the lowest resale price on the market, there must be a reason they are willing to sell so low. Even a distressed owner could price 5% below the lowest resale price out there and get a much better price than from an eBay auction and do so very quickly.
> 
> If there are any distressed DVC owners reading this, I would recommend selling through Fidelity over eBay. We purchased one of our DVC contracts for less than half the retail price and it was also priced $10-$20 per point less than the next most expensive DVC contracts for this resort. I have seen up to $50+ per point variations in the “normal” DVC resale market depending on contract size and other variables.
> 
> If I saw a Marriott or Vistana Maui unit for sale for $0-$1000 on eBay, I would also question why the seller is doing that. For all timeshares, there is an established resale price range. Not just Disney so not sure why Disney is being singled out. I saw a super cheap Marriott Newport Coast Platinum 2 BR on eBay today. The highest bid right now is under $1000. On Redweek, the cheapest equivalent unit is over $8000.



I think that you have a very solid point. On the other hand, i have seen at least 10-15 DVC listings on Ebay in the last 2-3 weeks. And I  expect the prices on ebay to be cheaper for any timeshare because buyers have to factor in the additional risk. Many Ebay sellers seem to be brokers that do a decent job (although lacking in communication) but the reality is that there is little info on who they are. Maybe Tuggers know a bit more in general but what about the random buyer? Who would send thousands of dollars to a seller they know nothing about?


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## Panina

DannyTS said:


> I think that you have a very solid point. On the other hand, i have seen at least 10-15 DVC listings on Ebay in the last 2-3 weeks. And I  expect the prices on ebay to be cheaper for any timeshare because buyers have to factor in the additional risk. Many Ebay sellers seem to be brokers that do a decent job (although lacking in communication) but the reality is that there is little info on who they are. Maybe Tuggers know a bit more in general but what about the random buyer? Who would send thousands of dollars to a seller they know nothing about?


You have to be really careful on eBay.  I will not bid on a timeshare that will cost me more then $100 unless I know the seller is honest.  I have made two purchases in the thousands from the same seller who I find reputable and I just wait until he lists what I am looking for.  When it costs me a few dollars I find there is really no risk.  I have been fortunate that all my deals  from ebays went through with what was promised.  My biggest problem has been sometimes it is so slow.


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## Dean

TravelTime said:


> The data posted by DVCResaleMarket.com showed that the percentage of buy backs were much higher at these 3 resorts. I would never base this on the total number since that number is meaningless.


Maybe I misread it, I didn't see the % or the prices for the more expensive resorts, only the total number of buy backs and the % for 4 resorts.  Did I miss the % for VGF, VGC, BWV, BCV, CCV, BRV and Poly?.  You'd really have to have all of those pieces to make any true judgements and ultimately the price compared to retail price is likely the most telling.  On the surface the obvious answer of why the 4 resorts listed were bought back is almost certainly that the prices were lower, not that DVD wanted them.  The only other issue would be for OKW as I mentioned because of the extension.


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## TravelTime

Dean said:


> Maybe I misread it, I didn't see the % or the prices for the more expensive resorts, only the total number of buy backs and the % for 4 resorts.  Did I miss the % for VGF, VGC, BWV, BCV, CCV, BRV and Poly?.  You'd really have to have all of those pieces to make any true judgements and ultimately the price compared to retail price is likely the most telling.  On the surface the obvious answer of why the 4 resorts listed were bought back is almost certainly that the prices were lower, not that DVD wanted them.  The only other issue would be for OKW as I mentioned because of the extension.



I believe the percentages were there for all the buy backs. If he did not list a resort, it is because he had 0 buybacks. In general, DVC does not exercise ROFR that much. That is what I took away from the report.


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## Dean

TravelTime said:


> I believe the percentages were there for all the buy backs. If he did not list a resort, it is because he had 0 buybacks. In general, DVC does not exercise ROFR that much. That is what I took away from the report.


I'm still not seeing the % for the other resorts including those with buy backs listed but it really doesn't matter because it really doesn't answer the question at hand, which is based on price.


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## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> I think that you have a very solid point. On the other hand, i have seen at least 10-15 DVC listings on Ebay in the last 2-3 weeks. And I  expect the prices on ebay to be cheaper for any timeshare because buyers have to factor in the additional risk. Many Ebay sellers seem to be brokers that do a decent job (although lacking in communication) but the reality is that there is little info on who they are. Maybe Tuggers know a bit more in general but what about the random buyer? Who would send thousands of dollars to a seller they know nothing about?



You should start a post about purchasing on eBay. I am suspicious of any eBay listings that are for a timeshare that sellers could easily sell at a much higher price. Some of the eBay listings for DVC are asking the normal resale price. Others appear to be from distressed buyers yet I am noticing those prices are getting bid up to almost the normal resale price range. Like Panina, I would not buy a timeshare on eBay that costs more than a few dollars due to the risks involved. However, many people buy timeshares on eBay all the time. If it is a really good deal, you could turn around and resell it for thousands more the next day (after closing that is).


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## TravelTime

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Timeshare-and-250-Annual-Points-at-Disney-s-Animal-Kingdom-Villas/183550871918?_trkparms=aid=111001&algo=REC.SEED&ao=1&asc=20160908131621&meid=1452c360feab47a299cc7033640a34c4&pid=100678&rk=4&rkt=4&sd=143046976365&itm=183550871918&_trksid=p2481888.c100678.m3607&_trkparms=pageci:5c7adf4a-fd99-11e8-8c7d-74dbd180f750|parentrq:9f85594a1670a9c454b6237fffef1217|iid:1

This listing has gone from $1000 to $19,700 in one day and it still has 29 days more to go. When you add in the unusable banked and borrowed points plus additional late fees that were charged on 12/1 and will continue to be charged until closing, this is not such a good deal for eBay. This is now approaching well into the $24,000+ range with closing costs and delinquent payments and 2019 MFs. I am also noticing there are two buyers that appear to be on automatic bidding. There are contracts for sale by the reputable brokers asking as low as $97 per point for AK. This one is now approaching that price per point. So now my question is, what kind of buyer would buy something so expensive on eBay? Who are those two bidders competing against each other with auto bidding?


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## TravelTime

Dean said:


> I'm still not seeing the % for the other resorts including those with buy backs listed but it really doesn't matter because it really doesn't answer the question at hand, which is based on price.



I see what you mean that he summarized the 4 top resorts with buybacks in a mini table with percentages but left off the others. He included the total volume for all the resorts with buybacks but no percentages for the resorts with the smallest number of buybacks. I guess if someone wants this data, you could email him and ask him to include it. This is the only data I have ever seen published by someone with DVC data available. I would take it as directional and not as a solid answer. He does a cumulative annual report at some point so that might be more helpful since looking at one month has so few buybacks that the percentages for the low volume resorts may be meaningless in any given month. I am assuming that is why he did not include all the resorts in his mini table.

Here is a link to his blog that includes his monthly reports on ROFR and average sales prices. I did not realize how cheap points are at HHI and Old Key West.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/category/buying-dvc/


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## DannyTS

one thing is for sure, the magic will stop and the resale prices will come back to reality if DVC stops this aggresive ROFR policy. Most companies exercise RoFR with the idea of maximizing profit per each week bought back. MVC could not care less about the resale prices. DVC seems to promote the idea that their timeshares go up in value but that may change one day.  i will continue to monitor ebay. The fact that i have seen several cheap sales and that there has been a dvc ebay market for at least 10 years tell me that there is more to the story


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## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> one thing is for sure, the magic will stop and the resale prices will come back to reality if DVC stops this aggresive ROFR policy. Most companies exercise RoFR with the idea of maximizing profit per each week bought back. MVC could not care less about the resale prices. DVC seems to promote the idea that their timeshares go up in value but that may change one day.  i will continue to monitor ebay. The fact that i have seen several cheap sales and that there has been a dvc ebay market for at least 10 years tell me that there is more to the story



DVC does not have an aggressive ROFR policy. They rarely exercise ROFR as shown by the data posted by DVCResaleMarket.com. When you buy through DVC direct, they do not talk about resale value at all. This is absolutely not part of their sales pitch. In fact, DVC is very non-aggressive in my experience. I have bought DVC direct and resale. Personally, I did not mind paying more to buy direct if the purchase was for small contracts or if the delta was not significant in my mind. There were some nice benefits that I valued when I bought from DVC direct. DVC promotes buying direct so they do not ever talk about resale. I mentioned resale to my salesman and he stayed quiet.

The Magic will not stop unless you hate Mickey and friends. You seem to hate the Mouse. I hated the Mouse when I purchased DVC but now I love him. Those characters just get under you skin and make you feel young again. I am even planning to go on an adult group trip to DVC in 2020. There are so many Disney fanatics. It is almost cult like.

Disney as a brand has been around for almost 100 years in all different types of products. The timeshare component is almost 30 years old.

All timeshares are a resale disaster for owners. That is why TUG exists.

To me, the DVC buy in cost is high but the MFs are low.

When there is another recession, I assume all timeshare resale prices will go down as owners dump them.

There is a lot for sale now on DVCResaleMarket.com. I have never seen so many for sale as this year.

But think about it, only a small percentage of the timeshare universe buys resale and the majority of DVC owners buy direct.

I hate the process of buying resale. I have been waiting for about 2 months now for a simple Vistana purchase to close. I found out today there is a deed problem. Resale is a pain in the you know where. It is great for saving money but unless the delta is big, it is not worth it.

I do not think you can predict failure based on a few months in time. I do not know why you want to do this, anyway. If anything, I see more trouble coming for Mexico. I would worry more about that.


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## TravelTime

I am done with posting in this thread. It is time for me to tune out.

Hoping the Mouse will bring some Magic to the people who enjoy it.


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## Dean

TravelTime said:


> I see what you mean that he summarized the 4 top resorts with buybacks in a mini table with percentages but left off the others. He included the total volume for all the resorts with buybacks but no percentages for the resorts with the smallest number of buybacks. I guess if someone wants this data, you could email him and ask him to include it. This is the only data I have ever seen published by someone with DVC data available. I would take it as directional and not as a solid answer. He does a cumulative annual report at some point so that might be more helpful since looking at one month has so few buybacks that the percentages for the low volume resorts may be meaningless in any given month. I am assuming that is why he did not include all the resorts in his mini table.
> 
> Here is a link to his blog that includes his monthly reports on ROFR and average sales prices. I did not realize how cheap points are at HHI and Old Key West.
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/category/buying-dvc/


Options like DIS ROFR thread's and ROFR.net will give you better data from a price standpoint.  I would never recommend anyone buy based on the odds of passing ROFR, that's a disaster looking to happen and a recipe for a retail purchase in many cases.


----------



## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> DVC does not have an aggressive ROFR policy. They rarely exercise ROFR as shown by the data posted by DVCResaleMarket.com. When you buy through DVC direct, they do not talk about resale value at all. This is absolutely not part of their sales pitch. In fact, DVC is very non-aggressive in my experience. I have bought DVC direct and resale. Personally, I did not mind paying more to buy direct if the purchase was for small contracts or if the delta was not significant in my mind. There were some nice benefits that I valued when I bought from DVC direct. DVC promotes buying direct so they do not ever talk about resale. I mentioned resale to my salesman and he stayed quiet.
> 
> The Magic will not stop unless you hate Mickey and friends. You seem to hate the Mouse. I hated the Mouse when I purchased DVC but now I love him. Those characters just get under you skin and make you feel young again. I am even planning to go on an adult group trip to DVC in 2020. There are so many Disney fanatics. It is almost cult like.
> 
> Disney as a brand has been around for almost 100 years in all different types of products. The timeshare component is almost 30 years old.
> 
> All timeshares are a resale disaster for owners. That is why TUG exists.
> 
> To me, the DVC buy in cost is high but the MFs are low.
> 
> When there is another recession, I assume all timeshare resale prices will go down as owners dump them.
> 
> There is a lot for sale now on DVCResaleMarket.com. I have never seen so many for sale as this year.
> 
> But think about it, only a small percentage of the timeshare universe buys resale and the majority of DVC owners buy direct.
> 
> I hate the process of buying resale. I have been waiting for about 2 months now for a simple Vistana purchase to close. I found out today there is a deed problem. Resale is a pain in the you know where. It is great for saving money but unless the delta is big, it is not worth it.
> 
> I do not think you can predict failure based on a few months in time. I do not know why you want to do this, anyway. If anything, I see more trouble coming for Mexico. I would worry more about that.



Let's not forget where all this started, an important increase in MF. And a question whether this is going to impact the resale prices. You are confirming that there are more listings than you have seen before. Several contracts have been sold for much less than expected on Ebay. On DVCResaleMarket.com there are 109 listings that reduced the price and 39 that show the banner "reduced again". There is your answer why Ebay listings. It is not a matter of love or hate Mickey as you put it, the choice is not binary. By the way, most sales are through developer at any other major brand and, according to anecdotal evidence discussed on Tug, at least 90% of the owners bought direct. That does not mean that the resale prices are not where they are. I think that 95% of the resale prices are at zero or negative value. Platinum in quality resorts  has value but there are limits and the price is highly influenced by ROFR. This is all I am saying.


----------



## Dean

DannyTS said:


> Let's not forget where all this started, an important increase in MF. And a question whether this is going to impact the resale prices. You are confirming that there are more listings than you have seen before. Several contracts have been sold for much less than expected. It is not a matter of love or hate Mickey as you put it, the choice is not binary. By the way, most sales are through developer at any other major brands and, according to anecdotal evidence discussed on Tug, at least 90% of the owners bought direct. That does not mean that the resale prices are not where they are. I think that 95% of the resale prices are at zero or negative value. Platinum in quality resorts  have some value but there are limits and the price is highly influenced by ROFR. This is all I am saying.


Historically DVC prices have been propped up by ROFR about 50% of the time or less and the rest driven by the market.  Currently it's likely more the market and not ROFR prices.  Timeshare represent risk in terms of the dues and they will go up even in a recession.  ROFR doesn't offer any protection, if anything, it is a problem for the seller.  But what it does is prevent the fire sales and keep people guessing.  DVC has already proven that the limitation on dues increases and reallocation limits aren't a true protection for the buyer as there's always next year.


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## DannyTS

Dean said:


> Historically DVC prices have been propped up by ROFR about 50% of the time or less and the rest driven by the market.  Currently it's likely more the market and not ROFR prices.


I am not disputing what you say because there is just not enough information. 
In general though, a big buyer can influence  the prices on a continuous manner even if it represents a small percentage of the total transactions and even if the buys are not done all the time. I would give 2 examples relatively easy to understand from the recent history: corporate stock buybacks and the QE programs by the Federal reserves.


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## bnoble

DannyTS said:


> I am not disputing what you say because there is just not enough information.


Yes there is: go back and look at the collection of ROFR threads on DISboards. There was a significant period during the economic downturn when almost nothing was taken via ROFR.


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## frank808

bnoble said:


> Yes there is: go back and look at the collection of ROFR threads on DISboards. There was a significant period during the economic downturn when almost nothing was taken via ROFR.


2008-2009 for buyers, I called it "The Golden Age". 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


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## Dean

DannyTS said:


> I am not disputing what you say because there is just not enough information.
> In general though, a big buyer can influence  the prices on a continuous manner even if it represents a small percentage of the total transactions and even if the buys are not done all the time. I would give 2 examples relatively easy to understand from the recent history: corporate stock buybacks and the QE programs by the Federal reserves.


I've been following resales to some degree or the other for over 20 years.  The reality is that no one has the true data because DVD doesn't share it.  What I posted was my Gestalt for where things have been over time.  Clearly there have been times when ROFR propped up prices and times when they didn't.  Now is one where they don't in general terms but they do control fire sales.  No single buyer is going to be able to influence prices, not enough volume.  But a broker can and frankly, I personally feel one has to the point of refusing listings that were below what they felt was the "norm".


bnoble said:


> Yes there is: go back and look at the collection of ROFR threads on DISboards. There was a significant period during the economic downturn when almost nothing was taken via ROFR.


Prices went to half of what they were a year or 2 before.  HH went for under $30 at times and SSR down to $40 or so.


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## Pathways

TravelTime said:


> DVC does not have an aggressive ROFR policy



I respectfully disagree with this. DVC's pockets are so deep, except during times of extreme downturn, I would venture to say DVC never _purposefully_ lets a sale go through with a price point dramatically lower than the general market. When they do, I would bet it's because of the size of the contract, or terms of the deal.



Dean said:


> But a broker can and frankly, I personally feel one has to the point of refusing listings that were below what they felt was the "norm".



I could not agree more with this statement.  I have experience with five of the main sellers, and while I would not share specifics publicly, there are certain ones I would not buy from, and certain ones I would not sell through, all based on their pricing.

A broker's job is to maximize the price for the seller.  If the broker does enough volume, they can (and I believe do) refuse to list for lower prices.  One listing like that can lower the value for every other listing they have.  On the other hand, if the volume is lower, the broker may price all the contracts lower, thereby selling quickly. They hope the quick sale data will get someone to list with them with the promise of a quick turnaround.

Yes, I realize the above (high/low volume) is the exact opposite of free market norms, but I believe it is true based on my own experience.      Ex: I wanted to make offers on more than one contract with a certain broker. ($6-10 below asking) They refused, saying they knew it would sell at the listed price if not above.  Yet three weeks later, the listings were still there.


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## Lisa P

TravelTime said:


> To me, the DVC buy in cost is high but the MFs are low.


For us, they are both too high for value received vs. (both onsite and offsite) alternatives. The high MFs were the reason we sold ours. We don't hate Disney at all, we just see the value of DVC differently.


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## bnoble

frank808 said:


> 2008-2009 for buyers, I called it "The Golden Age".


From Maelström: "You are not the first to pass this way, nor shall you be the last."


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## frank808

bnoble said:


> Yes there is: go back and look at the collection of ROFR threads on DISboards. There was a significant period during the economic downturn when almost nothing was taken via ROFR.


Even in the depths of the recession (2009), dvc exercised rofr.  DVC did not exercise rofr with okw at $32 and ssr at $40. I was able to purchase a few contracts at these properties for those prices.  DVC did not let a VGC pass at $50 a point that I tried to purchase.  This was when everyone was reporting that DVC was not using rofr.  They were exercising but on a much more selective scale from my experiences. 

Sent from my SM-T217S using Tapatalk


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## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> https://www.ebay.com/itm/Timeshare-and-250-Annual-Points-at-Disney-s-Animal-Kingdom-Villas/183550871918?_trkparms=aid=111001&algo=REC.SEED&ao=1&asc=20160908131621&meid=1452c360feab47a299cc7033640a34c4&pid=100678&rk=4&rkt=4&sd=143046976365&itm=183550871918&_trksid=p2481888.c100678.m3607&_trkparms=pageci:5c7adf4a-fd99-11e8-8c7d-74dbd180f750|parentrq:9f85594a1670a9c454b6237fffef1217|iid:1
> 
> This listing has gone from $1000 to $19,700 in one day and it still has 29 days more to go. When you add in the unusable banked and borrowed points plus additional late fees that were charged on 12/1 and will continue to be charged until closing, this is not such a good deal for eBay. This is now approaching well into the $24,000+ range with closing costs and delinquent payments and 2019 MFs. I am also noticing there are two buyers that appear to be on automatic bidding. There are contracts for sale by the reputable brokers asking as low as $97 per point for AK. This one is now approaching that price per point. So now my question is, what kind of buyer would buy something so expensive on eBay? Who are those two bidders competing against each other with auto bidding?



as i wrote before, the prices can be all over the place, somebody won today an auction for 180 points for $3400


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## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> as i wrote before, the prices can be all over the place, somebody won today an auction for 180 points for $3400
> 
> View attachment 9445



Yes, we already discussed this and some possible explanations. Why are you obsessed with this?


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## Panina

DannyTS said:


> as i wrote before, the prices can be all over the place, somebody won today an auction for 180 points for $3400
> 
> View attachment 9445


What it goes for and what passes rofr are two different things.  Show me one that gets past rofr and then we can assume things are changing.


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## TravelTime

It would be super helpful to research these closed DVC listings and find out if they are legitimate. Then let us know in advance when you find some great DVC deals so we can bid on it. Posting closed auction is not helpful and it could be misleading people into thinking we can get deals like this. I tried bidding on a DVC listing on eBay and I got outbid almost immediately and all of a sudden the price jumped and came close to the normal resale price. The 2 buyers who outbid me were both on auto bidding. The listings are still available waiting for more bids but now it is too expensive to purchase on eBay so I stopped bidding. I thought the entire thing was very odd. If you find another incredible eBay deal, let us know in advance so we can bid.


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## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> Then let us know in advance when you find some great DVC deals so we can bid on it.



Nobody can tell in advance the great DVC deals for the same reason you stated: most people bid in the last minute or so what may seem to be a great deal in advance can prove to be a terrible deal five minutes later. Many people are on auto bidding, it saves  time.

The other points you and Panina make are very true. We do not know whether the seller is not a scammer, and if he is not, if they are going to pass ROFR.

Concerning the seller, tra3213, I do not find anything on TUG about him, a red flag. Google does not reveal much more, except this

http://timeshare-traveler.blog/tag/tra3213/

I have a suspicion now that he might be a scammer and that this page is also related to him somehow. I hope i am wrong for those that may have won his auctions.


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## TravelTime

DannyTS said:


> Nobody can tell in advance the great DVC deals for the same reason you stated: most people bid in the last minute or so what may seem to be a great deal in advance can prove to be a terrible deal five minutes later. Many people are on auto bidding, it saves  time.
> 
> The other points you and Panina make are very true. We do not know whether the seller is not a scammer, and if he is not, if they are going to pass ROFR.
> 
> Concerning the seller, tra3213, I do not find anything on TUG about him, a red flag. Google does not reveal much more, except this
> 
> http://timeshare-traveler.blog/tag/tra3213/
> 
> I have a suspicion now that he might be a scammer and that this page is also related to him somehow. I hope i am wrong for those that may have won his auctions.



If you can post the starting bids for low cost DVC deals, that would be helpful. Then we can bid and see what happens.


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## DannyTS

TravelTime said:


> If you can post the starting bids for low cost DVC deals, that would be helpful. Then we can bid and see what happens.


i believe it is against the Tug rules to post live listings. You can create your own watch lists in ebay though


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## Dean

DannyTS said:


> Nobody can tell in advance the great DVC deals for the same reason you stated: most people bid in the last minute or so what may seem to be a great deal in advance can prove to be a terrible deal five minutes later. Many people are on auto bidding, it saves  time.
> 
> The other points you and Panina make are very true. We do not know whether the seller is not a scammer, and if he is not, if they are going to pass ROFR.
> 
> Concerning the seller, tra3213, I do not find anything on TUG about him, a red flag. Google does not reveal much more, except this
> 
> http://timeshare-traveler.blog/tag/tra3213/
> 
> I have a suspicion now that he might be a scammer and that this page is also related to him somehow. I hope i am wrong for those that may have won his auctions.


I'd suggest you investigate the general level DVC ROFR is occurring at, you should be able to get within a fe $$$.  Then bid on a auction below that with a seller you're comfortable with.  Ebay has quite a few protections but there is still risk.  Worst case scenario is you lose the deal to ROFR and have to wait a month or 2 to get our money back.  I've bought a number of timeshares on ebay over the years but not DVC.  Historically the prices for DVC on ebay haven't been a savings.  You might get a good price that will slip by, more likely you'll lose it ROFR unless it's a bankruptcy or foreclosure.  Even if you get that great price, it might take 4-5 months to close in some cases.  I get the sense you're trying to nail jello to the wall.  To make sure you don't over bid or lose out, snipe it, it'll only cost you if you win.


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## TravelTime

This one just completed bidding on eBay. It ended at $16,500 - $81.50 per point for 200 points at Fort Wilderness. I assume they mean Boulder Ridge. This is not much less than what you could pay a reputable timeshare broker if you shop around so I have no idea why anyone would buy this on eBay. It is being sold by a bankruptcy salesperson and owned by an estate, so I assume if it passes ROFR that it would be a time consuming transaction. It is also past due on MFs.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Timeshare-200-Annual-Points-Disney-World-Villas-at-Wilderness-Lodge-Orlando-FL-/163329658986?nma=true&si=3KyqZ75q7Ks9%2FXDQ6gTkf6II8vI%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

I never see the super low EBay auctions while they are open. The only cheap one I saw was fishy.


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## frank808

TravelTime said:


> This one just completed bidding on eBay. It ended at $16,500 - $81.50 per point for 200 points at Fort Wilderness. I assume they mean Boulder Ridge. This is not much less than what you could pay a reputable timeshare broker if you shop around so I have no idea why anyone would buy this on eBay. It is being sold by a bankruptcy salesperson and owned by an estate, so I assume if it passes ROFR that it would be a time consuming transaction. It is also past due on MFs.
> 
> https://www.ebay.com/itm/Timeshare-200-Annual-Points-Disney-World-Villas-at-Wilderness-Lodge-Orlando-FL-/163329658986?nma=true&si=3KyqZ75q7Ks9%2FXDQ6gTkf6II8vI%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
> 
> I never see the super low EBay auctions while they are open. The only cheap one I saw was fishy.


Add the past due maintenance fees and you are close to $90.  Since so close to end of year you will have to pay 2019 dues. Disney wont transfer with past due and you will close sometime in late Jan to early Feb.  

Another thing is you might not get 2018 points if previous owner borrowed points.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


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## RX8

DannyTS said:


> Concerning the seller, tra3213, I do not find anything on TUG about him, a red flag. Google does not reveal much more, except this
> 
> http://timeshare-traveler.blog/tag/tra3213/



Not sure if that was a self promotion in that link or not. Either way I wouldn’t put any trust in someone whose strategy involves taking on worthless timeshares solely for the rebates the seller is offering.


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## DannyTS

RX8 said:


> Not sure if that was a self promotion in that link or not. Either way I wouldn’t put any trust in someone whose strategy involves taking on worthless timeshares solely for the rebates the seller is offering.


I suspect it was self promotion because if you look at this page their name is on top of other known ebay sellers.
http://timeshare-traveler.blog/home/timeshare-re-seller-rankings/


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## yuantsai

TravelTime said:


> You may want to check and see if the eBay auctions are being run by timeshare agents. As I understand, agents get paid their commission even if DVC exercises ROFR. There has been some speculation that these eBay auctions may be run by agents taking advantage of clueless DVC owners. Or perhaps there is some other thing going on. If these eBay auctions are legit, it is likely DVC will exercise ROFR. Most of the eBay listings have tended to be for the resorts that Disney is most likely to exercise ROFR i.e. Saratoga, Old Key West and Animal Kingdom.
> 
> Tra3213 is selling all different timeshare brands including the low ball Disney timeshares. He must be an agent. His profile is from June 2018. Also, he has a lot of reviews and they mostly say the same thing: “great service” by the same buyer. I am curious who this seller is.
> 
> Great Service! Buyer:
> s***r ( 39
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> )
> During past 6 months
> -- -- Private



I also won a timeshare from same seller tra3213 and wondering if it's legit?


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## TravelTime

yuantsai said:


> I also won a timeshare from same seller tra3213 and wondering if it's legit?



You should contact the seller and ask him to talk to you. I would not send any money to a stranger.


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