Westin Flex? Almost certainly...

okwiater · Aug 20, 2015

There's a hidden gem in the announcement regarding the increase in StarOptions and Starpoints valuations for WKORV/-N Oceanfront units. As a result, I am now all but certain that Westin Flex will soon be in the mix. The giveaway is in the Starpoints valuations.

One of the interesting things about Sheraton Flex is that the Starpoints value of your contract can be calculated by multiplying the HomeOptions value by 0.52. In other words, a 67,100 HomeOption Sheraton Flex contract can be converted to 34,892 Starpoints.

Similarly, it appears that in the case of WKORV/-N Oceanfront units, the Starpoints values can be calculated by multiplying the StarOptions value by 0.54. So 176,700 SOs converts to 95,418 SPs, 95,700 SOs converts to 51,678 SPs, and 81,000 SOs converts to 43,740 SPs.

This suggests that a similar Flex-like formula will be applied to new sales at Nanea, but that it absolutely will be a different program from Sheraton Flex. Although it's possible this will be a single-resort points package similar to WSJ-CV, my prediction is that Nanea will instead facilitate the debut of the Westin Flex product.

GregT · Aug 21, 2015

I agree with Okwiater that this is an interesting moment for Starwood owners, and agree Westin Flex is coming. I recall the speculation that Marriott owners went through and what we missed at the time was the owners before the announcement would get grandfathered in -- and benefit. Same with Worldmark -- both systems treated their legacy owners well.

So, I'm not smart enough to run the conversion ratios, but I will casually look for Starwood properties that would be good to own post transition. The unicorn is an obvious example but there have to be others??

Will Starwood need any of the other properties in Westin Flex? WKV is a good example because it's a desirable/sold-out property. However it's already mandatory so it's not the obvious beneficiary.

Are there any desirable/sold-out/voluntary/low MF properties? If so, we should buy them, even if just for sport.

Is there such a property?

Best,

Greg

pacman777 · Aug 21, 2015

GregT said:
I agree with Okwiater that this is an interesting moment for Starwood owners, and agree Westin Flex is coming. I recall the speculation that Marriott owners went through and what we missed at the time was the owners before the announcement would get grandfathered in -- and benefit. Same with Worldmark -- both systems treated their legacy owners well.

So, I'm not smart enough to run the conversion ratios, but I will casually look for Starwood properties that would be good to own post transition. The unicorn is an obvious example but there have to be others??

Will Starwood need any of the other properties in Westin Flex? WKV is a good example because it's a desirable/sold-out property. However it's already mandatory so it's not the obvious beneficiary.

Are there any desirable/sold-out/voluntary/low MF properties? If so, we should buy them, even if just for sport.

Is there such a property?

Best,

Greg

Time to start buying up WMH, WDW, SBP, SMV, etc. (all Platinum+ seasons)...

DeniseM · Aug 21, 2015

But remember - Starwood isn't offering the option to join for just a fee - you have to buy a full priced timeshare from the developer. Since this has been their practice in the past with requalifying resales, I will be surprised if that changes.

lizap · Aug 21, 2015

If they don't offer a chance for at least other mandatory owners to buy into FLEX, this will most likely result in a huge devaluation for mandatory owners and probably have an adverse impact on these owners' ability to sell their TSs, should they desire to do so.

DeniseM said:
But remember - Starwood isn't offering the option to join for just a fee - you have to buy a full priced timeshare from the developer. Since this has been their practice in the past with requalifying resales, I will be surprised if that changes.

DeniseM · Aug 21, 2015

lizap said:
If they don't offer a chance for at least other mandatory owners to buy into FLEX, this will most likely result in a huge devaluation for mandatory owners and probably have an adverse impact on these owners' ability to sell their TSs, should they desire to do so.

Mandatory owners already have Staroptions, so why would they want to?

grgs · Aug 21, 2015

pacman777 said:
Time to start buying up WMH, WDW, SBP, SMV, etc. (all Platinum+ seasons)...

I agree--if one is willing to take a gamble, I would look at Plat seasons at WMH, WDW, and SMV.

lizap · Aug 21, 2015

Denise, maybe I don't quite understand all this. But if Westin FLEX owners can book at desirable locations like WSJ and Hawaii at 12 months out, then that would give them an advantage over current mandatory owners, since we can only book at 8 months out. Mandatory owners would be stuck with what is leftover, if anything. It seems the big losers in all this will possibly be the voluntary owners who use II...

DeniseM said:
Mandatory owners already have Staroptions, so why would they want to?

vacationtime1 · Aug 21, 2015

lizap said:
Denise, maybe I don't quite understand all this. But if Westin FLEX owners can book at desirable locations like WSJ and Hawaii at 12 months out, then that would give them an advantage over current mandatory owners, since we can only book at 8 months out. Mandatory owners would be stuck with what is leftover, if anything. It seems the big losers in all this will possibly be the voluntary owners who use II...

The inventory available to Flex owners at the twelve month mark would have to be limited to inventory owned by Flex (such as Nanea, Sheraton Kauai, etc.). FlexOptions could be treated like StarOptions at the eight month mark.

Of course, if Flex buys units at existing SVN resorts (such as by ROFR'ing WKORV units), those specific units could be available to Flex owners twelve months out.

But otherwise, permitting Flex to reserve units owned by traditional weeks owners at the twelve month mark (whether mandatory or voluntary) would deprive those traditional weeks owners of usage and would therefore be the same as overselling the resort.

tschwa2 · Aug 21, 2015

Just as most Marriott members who did enroll either choose not to purchase trust points or bought the minimum or near minimum (1000-1500 trust points which probably averaged about $10.50 a point), I don't see most SVN members buying into the trust. Platinum members who trade in what they own would end up paying more MF's on the same or less points as the trust averages multiple seasons. The sales pitch always was if you don't buy into the trust then the newer properties wouldn't be available with legacy points. Since they weren't getting too many current owners wanting to plop down $50,000 + they came up with the idea that buying $11,000 worth of points, which would get you about 1.2 days in an ocean front Hawaii 2 br unit was enough to make the Legacy points capable of accessing the trust points. Not true and in reality it is very rare for a reservation of any kind to be available to reserve directly with trust points only.

Wyndham sales sound much better at convincing owners to continuously upgrade. This includes convincing those with fairly modest incomes to spend in the $50,000-$100,000+ range.

lizap · Aug 21, 2015

So you don't envision this significantly affecting (adversely) mandatory owners?

vacationtime1 said:
The inventory available to Flex owners at the twelve month mark would have to be limited to inventory owned by Flex (such as Nanea, Sheraton Kauai, etc.). FlexOptions could be treated like StarOptions at the eight month mark.

Of course, if Flex buys units at existing SVN resorts (such as by ROFR'ing WKORV units), those specific units could be available to Flex owners twelve months out.

But otherwise, permitting Flex to reserve units owned by traditional weeks owners at the twelve month mark (whether mandatory or voluntary) would deprive those traditional weeks owners of usage and would therefore be the same as overselling the resort.

okwiater · Aug 21, 2015

lizap said:
So you don't envision this significantly affecting (adversely) mandatory owners?

Yes, over time this will devalue mandatory SVN ownerships.

vacationtime1 · Aug 21, 2015

lizap said:
So you don't envision this significantly affecting (adversely) mandatory owners?

Not unless Starwood cancels SVN completely.

But it may be brutal on Interval exchanges based on a Starwood-to-Starwood preference. The experience at Marriott is that exchange inventory is being withheld so it is available for Destination Club (i.e. FlexOption) reservations and dumped into Interval only 60-90 days in advance. Starwood will need to be cautious in managing its inventory (the new system is likely to change use patters) so I anticipate an adjustment similar to Marriott.

vacationtime1 · Aug 21, 2015

lizap said:
So you don't envision this significantly affecting (adversely) mandatory owners?

okwiater said:
Yes, over time this will devalue mandatory SVN ownerships.

Why? Assuming FlexOptions have access to SVN inventory at the eight month mark and StarOptions have access to Flex inventory at the eight month mark, there will be more competition for existing units but there will be a matching number of new units.

No different than a new SVN resort.

okwiater · Aug 21, 2015

vacationtime1 said:
Why? Assuming FlexOptions have access to SVN inventory at the eight month mark and StarOptions have access to Flex inventory at the eight month mark, there will be more competition for existing units but there will be a matching number of new units.

Because 42% of developer sales are to existing owners. Assuming these transactions often involve a trade-in, this will result in a larger pool of Flex deeds and a shrunken SVN inventory pool over time.

SMHarman · Aug 21, 2015

GregT said:
I agree with Okwiater that this is an interesting moment for Starwood owners, and agree Westin Flex is coming. I recall the speculation that Marriott owners went through and what we missed at the time was the owners before the announcement would get grandfathered in -- and benefit. Same with Worldmark -- both systems treated their legacy owners well.

So, I'm not smart enough to run the conversion ratios, but I will casually look for Starwood properties that would be good to own post transition. The unicorn is an obvious example but there have to be others??

Will Starwood need any of the other properties in Westin Flex? WKV is a good example because it's a desirable/sold-out property. However it's already mandatory so it's not the obvious beneficiary.

Are there any desirable/sold-out/voluntary/low MF properties? If so, we should buy them, even if just for sport.

Is there such a property?

Best,

Greg

Since the star option upgrade WSJ is low cost per option.

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VacationForever · Aug 21, 2015

grgs said:
I agree--if one is willing to take a gamble, I would look at Plat seasons at WMH, WDW, and SMV.

What about WLR? Lower MF than these 3. Wouldn't SMV join Sheraton Flex instead of Westin Flex based on the name?

pacman777 · Aug 21, 2015

sptung said:
What about WLR? Lower MF than these 3. Wouldn't SMV join Sheraton Flex instead of Westin Flex based on the name?

Wondering if the strange regulations around timeshares (eg. right-to-use instead of deeds) in Mexico would exclude WLR from being part of any trust? I don't think SMV is currently included in the Sheraton Flex program. I would say SMV is probably the second best in SVN second only to Sheraton Steamboat (mainly due to the ski season/location). I can't see SMV and Sheraton Steamboat being in the same classification as SDO and the Florida properties.

SMHarman · Aug 21, 2015

They are both 148k plat plus products. Florida has no plat plus. SDO in the Sheraton trust is an outlier on this also.

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suzannesimon · Aug 21, 2015

Marriott's Aruba Surf Club is a RTU property and is not in the Trust. It might be comparable to WLR.

VacationForever · Aug 21, 2015

Having 2 Flex programs gives Starwood more opportunity to sell as opposed to lumping them all together. However from an owner perspective, you have to buy into both you if want to use timeshare in both the Flex systems at 12 months. There are so few resorts in Vistana (Starwood) that it makes it less compelling to a new timeshare buyer to buy into a (or 2) Flex program(s) with a small group of resorts in each program. One may say it is better than the old Starwood system of buying into one resort and then only be able to use SOs for other resorts at 8 months. But if I were shopping for a new timeshare system, Marriott DC would be more attractive, as a DC point is a DC point and it covers more locations that Vistana (Starwood).

grgs · Aug 21, 2015

sptung said:
What about WLR? Lower MF than these 3. Wouldn't SMV join Sheraton Flex instead of Westin Flex based on the name?

Yes, WLR would also be a good candidate. You may be right about SMV.

Westin Flex? Almost certainly...

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