http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=137
Here's the original OP for the fourth generation of this thread:
posted 05-14-2005 06:29
Time for pruning.
Time to bring the meaningful posts over to a new thread. This is necessary because as threads get too long, the forum does not handle them well. Eventually they will be lost.
I will be pulling old stuff over, and you can, too, but here is where we started on the third generation, July 25, 2004:
Officially for RCI, SW Florida is a Subarea that begins at Englewood/Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda and goes south to Marco Island.
I have been familiar with, interested in, in love with SW Florida since going there during my previous incarnation in the 1970's. Initially my interest was in Ft. Myers Beach, but eventually branched out to include Sanibel/Captiva, Bonita Beach, Vanderbilt Beach, Naples, Marco Island, and, yes, Lehigh Acres.
In my new incarnation, we began timesharing in SW Florida, Weeks 1 and 2 each year, in the early 90's. In those days, with no RCI.com, the method of searching involved ongoing searches and relying on the word of a VC. We typically wound up with Lehigh Acres, and with one of the crappy units across the road at Lahaina Inn one week in the early 90's.
With the advent of RCI.com, a better trading week, TUG, and a dose of reality leading to semi-enlightenment, about five years ago we discovered that there are many wonderful resorts in SW FL and they really are/were available.
With RCI.com I began searching SW FL for each January I could, every day I was home. I began recording my searches on March 27, 2002, and have recorded every search since. No, I did not have a crystal ball to know that our best trading week would suddenly lose ALL trading power and I would need my documentation to present to RCI for a remedy. And I had no idea that two years later we would be concerned about prime weeks going directly to rentals.
I believe why I started recording my searches was because of TUG. There were several very nice, very informative members (most of whom seem to no longer be here) who gave advice on areas they were familiar with. As good as their advice was and as well-meaning as they appeared to be, what I found lacking was specifics, empirical data, so I adopted SW FL to study.
I sometimes say that if each of us would do this, for a Subarea we like, it would be a service to all of TUG.
So much for the idle chatter. For those of you who are viewing this for the first time, I just wanted you to be aware of the extent of time and study I have put into this. I have not yet found any simple explanations for the results.
Here's what I've seen:
January, 2004: Search began 3/27/02 with 10 resorts available. The peaks came in July and October, 2002, with 14 resorts. That would have been at 18 and 15 months out. At a year out (January, 2003) it was running 8 and 9 resorts. At six months out it was down to zero to 2.
January, 2005: Search began 3/19/03, with 11 resorts available. The peak came in June and August, 2003, and held through October, with 13 resorts. At 13 months out it was running 5-6, but at a year out it was zero to 3, and never recovered.
January, 2006: Search began 1/28/04, with 2 resorts. In 2/04, it was up to 6, but hasn't done much since. It has hit as high as 9, in June, at 19 months out, the timeframe when the previous searches began their peak. Now, in July, 2004, it has been running only 5-7 resorts.
General observations: First, there has never been any wild and radical fluctuation from one day to the next, as some might lead you to believe. It has seldom changed more than one resort in a day, often times with that one reappearing within the next two days. Several times it has gone many days, sometimes more than a month, with no change whatsoever.
Obviously, there has been a reduction in the number of resorts available.
This was refelected in the 2005 search, when at a year out the typical surge from people Spacebanking in December and January, when fees are paid and trading power is being maximized, did not occur. It was more like what you should see at six months out, 0-3, and never rebounded.
January, 2006, is more obvious. The numbers have simply never been there.
As alarming, the resorts that are not appearing for 2006 are the better resorts. In previous years I saw an occasional Gold Crown, or RID, which I either took or referred to others. Some may remember when I posted Club Regency on Sightings, a Gold Crown I could not take because we already had another Gold Crown!!!! When we changed our plans, I did take it, since it lingered on RCI.com for quite awhile. Club Regency then appeared again and so did Charter Club of Marco and a couple on Sanibel.
But, nothing like that for 2005 or 2006.
So, there it is. The numbers are down. The quality is down. Even searching every day, starting two years out.
- - - - - -
Added 7/26: To give me and mine an alternative, and to share that with others, on March 10, 2004, I began the daily search of "Resorts on the Beach", mainly for January 2006, but also for 2005.
Amazingly, most other areas of Florida do not have the problem I see in SW FL. The Keys, of course, are tough, but I was able to snag a decent place there for Week 1, 2006, something we have always wanted to do,much likeI used to be able to do in SW.
I have seen as many as 55 choices for ROTB for 1/06 and almost as many for 1/05. Some really, really nice places.
Today there were 46 for 2006 and 43 for 2005 (Yes, even at this late date--five months out!).
Go figure!
I just came here to talk about this.