What are my chances of getting Smugglers Notch during Christmas/New Year's Eve

I have Cedarbrook, Vermont on hold untill close of business tomorrow. But I am really interested in getting Smugglers Notch.
What are my chances of getting Smuggs week 51/52 in the RCI points system 10 months out. Should I take a chance and let Cedarbrook go?

Thanks in advance
Neash

I saw a 2 Br sitting there this weekend

fyi--you are at the 10 month mark. This weekend I saw one with check-in 12/20/08. --that is gone--but 2 BR check in 12/19-12/26/08 is there NOW. 76,500 points (I think).

Thanks for your reply Elaine and your PM. I saw that unit, but my kids start their Christmas break only on the 24th so I will have to wait another day for reservations for 24th to open up.