Which fall foliage map should I believe?

I'm planning a vacation for the last week of October (this is not flexible). We were thinking of going to southern New England (MA, RI, CT), because we've never been there before. I realize that the leaves don't all change the same week every year, however, I will plan the vacation for a different location if it is likely we will arrive after all the leaves have fallen. I'm getting conflicting reports as to when that would be. The first link shows that the leaf color most years is near-prime during my week. The second link shows that all the leaves have fallen by Halloween. Which maps should I believe?

http://www.foliagenetwork.com/reports/northeast_us/

http://www.yankeefoliage.com/peakmap/

Neither right now- leaf color depends up the season preceeding it. I would not worry too much as driving as little as 20 miles north or south can bring a big difference. Watch the local area news when you arrive- they will usually know where the best viewing is.

tonyg said:

Neither right now- leaf color depends up the season preceeding it. I would not worry too much as driving as little as 20 miles north or south can bring a big difference. Watch the local area news when you arrive- they will usually know where the best viewing is.

Click to expand...

I'm just worried because I read some places (like the Fodor New England guide I checked out from the library) that, "All leaves are off the trees by Halloween." If that's true, then driving 20 miles south of Newport takes me to ...(?) I might as well plan a vacation somewhere else--since I can. I'm confused because one website shows my week to be the perfect time to find fall color in southern New England, the other shows that I will have missed it all.

Fall color isn't the only reason I'm looking at New England (there's only so much driving through the trees a person can do in a week) but it is certainly a major factor in choosing to go there during that week. I would choose to be in a place at a time when it has visual appeal, if you know what I mean.

Keith,

Keith have you looked at the Archive reports listed on the first link you provided? If not, if you look by year and scroll to the last week of October, you'll get a better indication of what to expect.



Richard

In my 23 years in MA, only once have I seen the height of the foliage season here peak past mid-October. Thus, if you are planning for the end of October, you might well be disappointed. There will still be color, but you'll likely be past the peak and wonder what the big deal is.

I tell friends to come during the first week of October. Although drives into southern NH are sometimes necessary that week to get full color, that week has been a direct hit every time. I think the second week of October should also work well for southern New England.

One other concern that was written up somewhere ( USA Today? ) last year is that New England innkeepers seemed to think that the intensity of leaf coloring in the Fall has been decreasing. This had translated to some drop-off in their business.

Naturally, this was, like everything else, attributed to global warming.

I did observe that here in Western NY, on October 15th last year, the leaves were green and brown. In the past, on the 15th leaves always seemed to be at their brightest and best. When the peak color time arrived in early November last year, the colors really were washed out.

Art

Here in Connecticut I would say that the second or possibly third week of October is your best bet. Halloween is usually too late. But as Tony says...anything can happen.

Better, though, to catch it a bit too early then to have the leaves off the trees!

35 years in CT and I don't recall ever seeing nice colors at Halloween... ever. Since you wrote that you are definitely planning for the last week of October and your dates are not flexible, I would not expect to see nice colors at that time. It would be a strange thing. And the further north you go, from Newport into upper New England, the earlier they'll have fallen, usually totally brown and down way before Halloween.

So with your dates, your options may include:

1. Continue with a pre-holidays New England vacation - enjoy other activities and sightseeing but don't plan on Autumn colors. Boston & New York City offer much to do in urban settings where the leafless trees may matter less.

2. Travel southward for that week to central Virginia's mountains, about 6-9 hours from Newport, I'd guess. The drive along the Blue Ridge Parkway is very scenic and beautiful. Check out Charlottesville, Luray Caverns and other Shenandoah sights. Depending on the weather this summer/early fall, you may have a better chance of seeing some color in the valley at the end of October.

3. Travel further down toward Great Smoky Mountain National Park in Tennessee or North Carolina - perhaps 14-18 hours but worth it to me. Besides lovely drives along the Blue Ridge Parkway, the 3rd and 4th weeks of October are typically prime color weeks for the Blue Ridge Mountains in NC - this year we even had nice color in spots into mid-November, though it was such an odd year. The Asheville, NC area and the Gatlinburg, TN area are both chock full of fun things to do and it's a very popular time to visit either place - really pretty.

Everyone,

Thank you for your responses. Not necessarily the answer I was hoping to get, but it's better to know what to expect up front. It looks like we'll be re-thinking this vacation--and thanks, Lisa, for the alternative ideas!

Unfortunately, a lot has to do with the weather. Rainy spring/summer vs. dry spring/summer can have a big effect. Early frost or a later frost can also change things. One is better off erring on the early side as a drive up to Northern New England is always nice; unfortunately in your case with the week locked, NE may not be your best bet. Perhaps if you could find an exchange somewhere south of New England. it might be peak there. The Poconos come to mind, but they may not be far enough south.

I just found another fall foilage map on www.weather.com

here's there map for normal peak times for fall color throughout the US


Richard