Recent Destination Club News

ER

From the most recent ER newsletter (mid year update):

"We continued to grow our membership through the first half of the year—in fact, we achieved our strongest month of new membership sales in nearly two years this past June, suggesting that the benefits of Exclusive Resorts are becoming even clearer.

More than 55 members upgraded their memberships to purchase additional club travel opportunities with the club in the first half of 2010—more than did so in all of 2009—a testament to their enthusiasm for the club experience."

Anyone actually know what those sales numbers are for ER? Have things settled down from the dues increase turmoil from last year?

A&K announced their numbers on the member call in April, and sales were definitely much better this year. Sounds like ER's sales have significantly improved as well. Anyone know about Q, UE or EE?

ER >

TarheelTraveler said:

we achieved our strongest month of new membership sales in nearly two years this past June

More than 55 members upgraded their memberships to purchase additional club travel opportunities with the club in the first half of 2010—more than did so in all of 2009

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UE >

Kagehitokiri2 said:

"our sales pipeline, mark, is probably the highest its been in the last 18 months" (oct 15 2008 > apr 15 2010)

Click to expand...

AK >

Kagehitokiri2 said:

we have done approximately the same number of two year trial memberships and equity memberships during the first two months of 2010 as in all of 2009

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Kagehitokiri2 said:

nearly one third of the members recently upgraded

we expect many two-year trial members to convert before the deadline

more than a dozen prospects in the final stages of joining

Click to expand...

dont recall Q/EE for 2010? posted all 2009 incl EE and hideaways.

Ue Q2 10-q

A couple of quotes from the 10-Q released today:

"In addition, at June 30, 2010, the amount of cash and cash equivalents on hand was less than the one month debt service required under the CapitalSource agreement. We are in active discussions with CapitalSource to modify the covenant. We may not be able to meet certain covenants under the revolving loan agreement in the future (see Note 6). We have also experienced a decrease in new membership sales and existing member upgrades throughout 2009 and continuing in 2010. For the month of July 2010 officers of the Company made approximately $55 of debt payments on behalf of the Company, and in August 2010, the Company was late meeting its payroll obligations to its employees."

"On June 3, 2010, we entered into a Receivables Purchase Agreement with Monterey. Under the agreement, Monterey advanced $1,700 to us, in exchange for an undivided interest in $2,000 of current and future membership dues. The principal amount due of $2,000 is repayable as the
dues are received. Repayments commenced on June 15 and at June 30, 2010, the remaining amount outstanding was $1,046, (net of interest expense of $131 not yet recognized), which is expected to be repaid by August 31, 2010. In the event that the facility is not repaid in full by
September 2, 2010, a fee of 5% of the remaining outstanding amount is due on that date and on each monthly anniversary thereafter, until paid in full. Based on the expected repayment schedule, the effective interest rate is approximately 170%."

Ultimate Escapes

Additional quotes from 10-Q:

"The above factors, among others, indicate that we may encounter a liquidity event, which may cause us to receive a notice of default of our loan covenants. Our management has taken steps to increase cash flow in order to cover 2010 operational expenses through, if necessary, the sale of selected club properties, and closely monitoring and reducing operating expenses as compared to plan. On June 3, 2010, we entered into a receivables financing loan with Monterey Financial Services, Inc. Profit Sharing Plan and Trust (“Monterey”) under which we sold an undivided interest in $2,000 of membership dues for $1,700 (see Note 15). In addition, the Company is actively seeking to raise additional working capital. We cannot predict whether we will be able to obtain the necessary additional capital on a timely basis, on acceptable terms, or at all. In the event that this capital raise does not materialize, or that we are unsuccessful in increasing our revenues and profits, we may be unable to implement our current operating plans, repay our debt obligations as they become due or continue as a going concern, any of which circumstances would have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations. Should our lender, CapitalSource, choose not to modify our revolving loan agreement or grant us a waiver on our covenants, as they have in the past, or if we do not find alternative sources of financing to fund our operations, or if we are unable to generate significant revenues or sell excess properties in our portfolio, we may not have sufficient funds to sustain current operations through the next quarter."

"Sales commissions decreased by $4 for the three months ended June 30, 2010 compared with the same period in 2009 as a result of lower sales in 2010."

Growth strategy said to include points based plans and annual membership plans.

Clearly you are missing the numbers, the factoring is minor when you consider the following:

1) The restricted cash is gone, meaning CapSource took it.

2) The Revolving Credit Line was moved to Current Liabilities.

3) Accounts Payable has doubled, meaning they are not paying bills.

4) UE has very little Cash on Hand. The factoring is gone already!

The only question is when as it has always been and which one Chapter 7 or 11.

Do not worry player haters, everyone will lose their deposits and upcoming travel plans, if a rabbit is not pulled from a hat or the member's pony up again.

Does that make you HAPPY? My Children's disappointment when I tell them the upcoming Orlando trip is cancelled? I am sure that will make you HAPPY, but do not worry I will overcome as I always have.

Traveling to the end!

Nobody can be happy with this, but highlighting the situation may save some naive soul from flushing their hard-earned money down the toilet.

wilkes591 said:

Clearly you are missing the numbers, the factoring is minor when you consider the following:

1) The restricted cash is gone, meaning CapSource took it.

2) The Revolving Credit Line was moved to Current Liabilities.

3) Accounts Payable has doubled, meaning they are not paying bills.

4) UE has very little Cash on Hand. The factoring is gone already!

The only question is when as it has always been and which one Chapter 7 or 11.

Click to expand...

I'm surprised that ULEI bothered to file its 10-Q and committed the lawyer time. They could have just gone out of compliance and gotten delisted.

As far as I can tell the stock hasn't trade since 7/29.

Didn't JT on either a member call or earnings call imply that they were seeing an uptick in membership sales? I guess not.

It is clearly not a good situation. I particularly feel for the members. For the sake of the industry and the members, I've been crossing my fingers hoping JT pulls another rabbit out of the hat. I don't think anyone would be happy if the situation got worse.

Anyone look at the 10-Q and 8-K back to back to see the two very different perspectives on things?

I also thought I recalled them saying that sales were picking up.

Kagehitokiri2 said:

http://viavid.net/vvdce/U298432/E000073CE.asx
"our sales pipeline, mark, is probably the highest its been in the last 18 months" (oct 15 2008 > apr 15 2010)
(mark argentino @ craig hamilton capital )

Click to expand...

i guess "pipeline" makes it not a lie.

TarheelTraveler said:

Sales commissions decreased by $4 for the three months ended June 30, 2010 compared with the same period in 2009 as a result of lower sales in 2010.

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so $4,000?

Q2 = apr may jun

owned/leased down to 94/26.

while possible in 2009, not possible in 2010 to break out non-recurring.

i take it they have not raised more money from members like they did in march?

UnhappyInCT said:

Nobody can be happy with this, but highlighting the situation may save some naive soul from flushing their hard-earned money down the toilet.

Click to expand...

UE is filing and posting the 10-Q's on it web site. What kind of naive soul would not do due diligence before giving a deposit? If they joined since this company went public, I feel for them but common on the information is right there.

I could understand member's angst with joining when it was private and listening to the Rosie picture from JT and RK. Now there is no excuse, by the way they booked $2.1 in membership deposits revenue during the 2nd Qtr. Clearly they are not reviewing the Financial Statement or just do not care.

Should be an interesting week or weeks, something is going to break and soon. As for the naive souls, it like believing your post on the DC forum, caused UE to shut it down.

How can management even think of having additional seasonal rentals, take and confirm reservations for them in the financial condition the company is in. I have always been aware of UE's situation, I would bet there are a lot of naive and unaware members, that have booked travel over the next six to eight months and are going to be shocked one way or the other. Typical for this company, why should anyone be surprised. Or was this a plan, get all that additional peak travel booked and hit the members?

The only thing I am shocked about, is there is no mention of an assessment yet. I can not believe this would not be attempted before a BK filing. Time will tell.

wilkes591 said:

UE is filing and posting the 10-Q's on it web site. What kind of naive soul would not do due diligence before giving a deposit? If they joined since this company went public, I feel for them but common on the information is right there.

I could understand member's angst with joining when it was private and listening to the Rosie picture from JT and RK. Now there is no excuse, by the way they booked $2.1 in membership deposits revenue during the 2nd Qtr. Clearly they are not reviewing the Financial Statement or just do not care.

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Based on the kinds of questions and cheerleading that I have heard on UE conference calls, I think many members are either financially naive or have relied on what they were told verbally without independently reading available documents.

While there is a lot of valuable information in the 10-Q, it is not exactly easy to find, and you have wade through a lot of boilerplate to find it.

Further, I believe that the way they are accounting for the PE merger is allowing them to recognize membership deposit revenue over time and/or that they assign an expected lifetime to the membership and recognize the deposit over time. The fact that they have booked membership revenue does not mean that they received cash for that. It's accrual accounting.

wilkes591 said:

Should be an interesting week or weeks, something is going to break and soon. As for the naive souls, it like believing your post on the DC forum, caused UE to shut it down.

Click to expand...

I agree, something will happen this quarter - whether it's a BK filing, a transaction, an assessment, or foreclosure.

wilkes591 said:

How can management even think of having additional seasonal rentals, take and confirm reservations for them in the financial condition the company is in. I have always been aware of UE's situation, I would bet there are a lot of naive and unaware members, that have booked travel over the next six to eight months and are going to be shocked one way or the other. Typical for this company, why should anyone be surprised. Or was this a plan, get all that additional peak travel booked and hit the members?

The only thing I am shocked about, is there is no mention of an assessment yet. I can not believe this would not be attempted before a BK filing. Time will tell.

Click to expand...

The main reason that CapitalSource hasn't foreclosed is that it is still a terrible time to sell properties in second home markets. As long as they can get paid interest, they think they are better off continuing to forebear and waiting for price appreciation to return. The problem for CapitalSource is that UE continues to burn money and CapitalSource isn't going to fund that. CapitalSource expects JT to find money somewhere - that's his job, and as long as he does that, CapitalSource will forebear.

JT to date has specialized in finding money from the gullible rich, primarily the member base, and to a lesser extent the stock market. He's profiting by paying himself well, so no matter what happens he will have done OK, and he converted a portion of his stake into a $10 million note, so he will be paid before any other investor if UE survives.

As for the seasonal leases, I think you have the motivation dead-on. There's going to be a call where JT says - our new strategy of right-sizing is proving correct, fewer full-time properties plus seasonal leases better matches demand and lowers costs, and our model works; HOWEVER this downturn has turned out far worse than we ever expected - cite lots of statistics to show how bad it is - and despite our efforts, the membership sales have fallen well below our plan due to the economy & other external factors outside our control - we've secured the right leases at good price for this holiday/winter season, but we don't have the cash to execute them. We looked for new investment but failed. So we are turning to you, our members and asking you: which choice do you want? cancel the leases and have to disappoint you with fewer properties and cancelling reservations this winter? a special assessment? increase the dues retroactively and start collecting now?

If members have planned their Christmas and New Years vacations, they may go along yet again. Remember last time, when the penalty was having your reservations canceled if you didn't pay up. That proved to be a powerful motivator.

AKTHUE,

I agree with the whole post, but something is going on with Capital Source and it might not be good. Did you notice the reduction of the total debt above the home sales proceeds? No sense asking for an assessment, if Capital Source is calling the note. Just blame Capital Source and file. It would be stupid in this RE market, but people make bad decisions everyday, like joining a DC.

The best is the huge increases in G&A and Salaries expenses during the QTR. Clearly they are tighten the belt and trying to reduce cost(JOKING), while running out of money.

Basically, Capital Source is taking every dollar and Management is spending as much as it can. It looks like game of CHICKEN and the members will pay one way or the other.

Just as an FYI, A&K's two year trial offer ends August 31:

http://www.akresidenceclub.com/two-year-trial.aspx

http://www.fraxfinder.com/archives/...h-no-upfront-capital-commitment-required.html

IMHO, this is a pretty darn good deal for any prospective member. No capital contribution during that trial period (i.e., only dues), and only a 10% premium on regular dues, with the dues premium credited back towards the capital contribution if the person joins as an equity member.

Separately, ER is doing a four year deposit payment installment plan. I'd link that, but destinationclubnews.com is down right now.

Equity Estates: (in reference to a post that wondered about EE)

I'm a member of EE...the way to think about it (Perry M and the end of the world scenarios apart---not to say they couldn't happen, but for those of us who choose to see a different, possible future...) is this:

Medium High-end Property Investment Hedge Fund, where you get to stay in the investments until the fund wraps up in 12 years.

The basic structure is:
---You must be a "qualified" investor, with a certain amount of liquid assets, net worth and/or both to buy in (just like a hedge fund)
---It's an SEC regulated private investment---which means nothing except that your attorneys will recognize the structure when you put the papers in front of them--and you will too, if you do these sorts of investments (1/10, 2 and 20, GP, LP, LLC, all the normal buzz words)...
---They get paid by taking a percentage out of the portfolio's value every year as a management fee and then 20% of the total profits when they cash in the portfolio in 12 years
---It does NOT have the high touch of Quintess (which I've experienced) or perhaps A&K either---all their "concierges" are contractors, not employees, so don't expect them to be able to get you into Per Se on a drop of a hat when you stay at the New York residences, for example. They do not generate the "once in the lifetime" thing; this has never seemed to break the heart of my (young) kids who are happy to be with mom and dad in warm and interesting places...
---It's family oriented; more than half the members have school age kids, the homes have usually 3 or more bedrooms (one NY residence has two; it's beautiful and in compensation, has an indoor pool, hot tub and work out rooms)...I raise this in contrast to, say, Ritz Carlton DC, which tends to be about condos with more luxury, but less kid friendly set ups (bed rails, bikes, games in the closet, etc etc etc)
---The members LLC owns the properties
---Some properties are allowed to be leased, by the terms of the operating agreements; every 7 members (or 8, for the more expensive ones), they go buy something...
---The leverage on the properties can rise to as high as 25%---but is currently below that
---Holidays are apportioned by a lottery system, not a points system.
---After being a member for 1 year, you can resell your share on the open market if you wish at whatever the fair market price for your share is (you can get---I assume with a fairly substantial haircut).
---Last update, 2 of the 80 something members had dropped/withdrawn/sold, everyone else was traveling.
---They had a red banner year last year, sold a bunch of memberships...
---They have a strategic alliance with a European Equity Club which gives members access to something like 23 European houses during part of their season in return for part access to the Equity Portfolio (seems fair enough)


Comparing them to some of the competition, having had the privilege of staying with friends in their D/Cs ---
---Homes are a little less luxurious than Quintess'---and service is less all over you (at Quintess, the concierge checked in multiple times a day---with EE, once your travel is set up and you are checked into the property, you have to call/tag them for stuff---Having said that, they are always responsive, within 20 minutes, to text/call...)
---Locations are slightly off the high end luxury track (so, rather than in the Trump in NY, or on 5th Avenue or in Millenium near Lincoln Center), they are about 2 blocks out of the most ridiculously high end locations...They have all worked fine, safe, enjoyable---and probably, under the idea that it's best not to own the nicest house on the block, better 12 year hold investments.
---Oddly, and I have no explanation for this, Equity Estates finds better chefs than Quintess---no clue as to why, no explanation for it, but it's been true in Hawaii, SoCal and Hawaii. Utterly clueless as to why. Happy about it though...
---You won't find info about EE (financials and whatnot) up on the web 'cause it's a hedge fund, in essence...If you want that stuff, get in touch with them, sign the NDA and kick the tires...

For what it's worth, I miss Destination Club Forums too!

Good to see the crowd back posting...

EE

Glad to see you posting over here now, SFOResident. You've always had good comments.

I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere, but tell us more about the Equity Estates Lone Star Fund. It looks like a totally new separate fund that is targetting $1.5M-2.5M residences, with some regional targeted destinations like a Texas lake house and New Orleans.

http://www.equityestateslsf.com/destinations.php

http://www.equityestateslsf.com/faq.php

Seems like a good move to offer some regional destinations and presumably a lower price point. I've known a lot of people interested in the equity DC concept, but couldn't afford or didn't want to spend the kind of money needed for an equity DC. I think a lot of people also want some destinations that they can get to quicker.

It looks like EE has sold about 26M in membership interests based on the amended SEC filing for EE I and the EE Lone Star Fund. How many houses are now owned versus leased? I assume maybe 8 of 12 (based on 24M guesstimated net proceeds/3M)?

Also, since you've got friends that are members of Quintess, what have you heard about Quintess lately? Seems like mostly we've heard stuff about the new sister PGA Tour Club.

Equity Estates

SFOResident said:

Equity Estates: (in reference to a post that wondered about EE)

I'm a member of EE...the way to think about it (Perry M and the end of the world scenarios apart---not to say they couldn't happen, but for those of us who choose to see a different, possible future...) is this:

Medium High-end Property Investment Hedge Fund, where you get to stay in the investments until the fund wraps up in 12 years.

The basic structure is:
---You must be a "qualified" investor, with a certain amount of liquid assets, net worth and/or both to buy in (just like a hedge fund)
---It's an SEC regulated private investment---which means nothing except that your attorneys will recognize the structure when you put the papers in front of them--and you will too, if you do these sorts of investments (1/10, 2 and 20, GP, LP, LLC, all the normal buzz words)...
---They get paid by taking a percentage out of the portfolio's value every year as a management fee and then 20% of the total profits when they cash in the portfolio in 12 years
---It does NOT have the high touch of Quintess (which I've experienced) or perhaps A&K either---all their "concierges" are contractors, not employees, so don't expect them to be able to get you into Per Se on a drop of a hat when you stay at the New York residences, for example. They do not generate the "once in the lifetime" thing; this has never seemed to break the heart of my (young) kids who are happy to be with mom and dad in warm and interesting places...
---It's family oriented; more than half the members have school age kids, the homes have usually 3 or more bedrooms (one NY residence has two; it's beautiful and in compensation, has an indoor pool, hot tub and work out rooms)...I raise this in contrast to, say, Ritz Carlton DC, which tends to be about condos with more luxury, but less kid friendly set ups (bed rails, bikes, games in the closet, etc etc etc)
---The members LLC owns the properties
---Some properties are allowed to be leased, by the terms of the operating agreements; every 7 members (or 8, for the more expensive ones), they go buy something...
---The leverage on the properties can rise to as high as 25%---but is currently below that
---Holidays are apportioned by a lottery system, not a points system.
---After being a member for 1 year, you can resell your share on the open market if you wish at whatever the fair market price for your share is (you can get---I assume with a fairly substantial haircut).
---Last update, 2 of the 80 something members had dropped/withdrawn/sold, everyone else was traveling.
---They had a red banner year last year, sold a bunch of memberships...
---They have a strategic alliance with a European Equity Club which gives members access to something like 23 European houses during part of their season in return for part access to the Equity Portfolio (seems fair enough)

Click to expand...

SFOResident - sounds interesting. What do the memberships cost? Are there annual fees or per night charges? How have you found availability?

Do you know if there any resales posted for sale anywhere?

a lot of EE data has been posted here.

this includes that the upcoming mgmt fee, and if they reach debt cap, will IIRC, each add ~33% to current dues. (broadly estimated for debt)

my "unanswered question" was where they would be paying the debt from if they reached the cap.

at some point i will try to reorganize the data posts here. (mainly EE, but some other as well)

Kagehitokiri2 said:

a lot of EE data has been posted here.

Click to expand...

Where is here? If it was supposed to be a link, it didn't work. If you mean this thread, well there are over 440 posts, and a search didn't find the answers to my questions.

TarheelTraveler, howd you find that new EE club? interesting. reciprocal use. like what lusso talked about. how does that work.. and wonder how much lower the fees are.

is ER still doing half now, half in 10 years?

re sea island (ER destination) >
http://www.luxist.com/2010/08/12/sea-island-company-files-chapter-11-plans-sale/

SFOResident said:

---After being a member for 1 year, you can resell your share on the open market if you wish at whatever the fair market price for your share is (you can get---I assume with a fairly substantial haircut).
---Last update, 2 of the 80 something members had dropped/withdrawn/sold, everyone else was traveling.
---Oddly, and I have no explanation for this, Equity Estates finds better chefs than Quintess---no clue as to why, no explanation for it, but it's been true in Hawaii, SoCal and Hawaii. Utterly clueless as to why. Happy about it though...

Click to expand...

wow. that doesnt speak well for "hospitality" experience of Q. any other sourcing comparisons?

hawaii (island?)
socal (la jolla vs la quinta?)
and what was the 3rd?

Kagehitokiri2 said:

TarheelTraveler, howd you find that new EE club? interesting. reciprocal use. like what lusso talked about. how does that work.. and wonder how much lower the fees are.

is ER still doing half now, half in 10 years?

re sea island (ER destination) >
http://www.luxist.com/2010/08/12/sea-island-company-files-chapter-11-plans-sale/

Click to expand...

SFO had mentioned the SEC registration, so I thought that I would look at the Edgar filings where I saw the new filing. Unlike the Ultimate Escapes filings, they don't really have anything of interest other than listing from time to time the amount of interests sold (Equity Estates is exempt from most filing requirements under their structure). SFO or 3DH should be able to elaborate on the questions. Hopefully, they can also provide the current owned versus leased breakdown. They had a very high leased to purchased ratio compared to other clubs (which is not necessarily a bad thing but something that definitely needs to be considered when joining), but I know that EE had talked about buying a number of homes in the 1st Q. When I guesstimated the 8 purchased, I forgot to include debt, so unless I'm missing something, I would think the number of purchased homes would be higher if there is debt or they have a lot in their capital account waiting to be used. Definitely some good deals out there right now.

I assume the new ER offer replaces the old ER offer.

Sea Island is a great destination. Hopefully, they can get out from under all of the debt.

AKTHUE said:

Where is here? If it was supposed to be a link, it didn't work. If you mean this thread, well there are over 440 posts, and a search didn't find the answers to my questions.

Click to expand...

Kage may have meant on DC4MS. I know much of the specific financial info was posted as well as some posts directly from the EE execs.

Quite frankly, the EE execs were happy to post for promotional purposes and then made (IMHO) some contradictory statements about the use of funds. Several posters, including Kage and me, asked some specific questions that (again IMHO) cornered the EE execs on some issues. The EE execs stopped posting and complained to the forum admin (Dr. Bill) about the posts which they viewed as hostile.

My view is the EE execs never fully explained issues regarding their business model and how certain expenditures were being funded. When the hard questions we asked, they took their ball and went home. Not a smoking gun ... but people were starting to cough on the air quality ...

If only we had the archives of DC4MS ....

of course i did not mean DC4MS i meant this thread and TUG. i have posted a ton of data here myself. i guess PerryM is to thank for some my postings, so have to give some credit.

travelguy, beyond what covers debt, what are your other specific "unanswered questions" re EE?

google cache and archive.org are very helpful btw.

UE trying a private placement to members

From my user name you can tell I have been through the wars with the DC industry....nice vacations, but cost per night is off the charts at this point....

So, as to the latest incarnation - UE - with cash almost gone, a slow motion liquidation well underway (gradually selling all high quality properties to stay alive), and no public market for the stock at all, UE has the nerve to send out another PPM to try to raise funds from members....this one dated July 20, 2010.

Seems rather unlikely, but the PPM only mentions financial condition risks a couple of times (and never mentions the cash situation) and the companion puff piece (dated August) says they expect earnings of $3.0 million in 2011 and $18.7 million in 2012, at least based on JT's rather odd version of "non-GAAP" accounting.

Maybe the goal is to get to the Dec/Jan renewal cycle to get some cash....but that hardly seems like a long-term fix....

We should start a pool on the filing date....

AK.TH.UR.UEmember said:

From my user name you can tell I have been through the wars with the DC industry....nice vacations, but cost per night is off the charts at this point....

So, as to the latest incarnation - UE - with cash almost gone, a slow motion liquidation well underway (gradually selling all high quality properties to stay alive), and no public market for the stock at all, UE has the nerve to send out another PPM to try to raise funds from members....this one dated July 20, 2010.

Seems rather unlikely, but the PPM only mentions financial condition risks a couple of times (and never mentions the cash situation) and the companion puff piece (dated August) says they expect earnings of $3.0 million in 2011 and $18.7 million in 2012, at least based on JT's rather odd version of "non-GAAP" accounting.

Maybe the goal is to get to the Dec/Jan renewal cycle to get some cash....but that hardly seems like a long-term fix....

We should start a pool on the filing date....

Click to expand...

I'm with you and I went through the same club sequence. Except by the time of the first assessment it was enough for me. I think there will be a BK filing before they file Q3 financials.

Here's my view in post 436: http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showpost.php?p=966566&postcount=436

reunion

I am glad to see so many of our prior friends back together--I just wish it were for a more joyous purpose and not a wake. Lets hope that things continue for a while and we keep traveling but I'm worried. Good detective work on the dentist et al and I have been lurking but decided to again join the corwd. Keep sharing as this group always seems to be a week, month, or year ahead of other members in understanding the situation.