I believe Marriott will aggressively acquire weeks into Points Trust

BocaBum99 · Jul 5, 2010

The more I think about this Marriott point system, the more I conclude that the early actions of Marriott with respect to resale weeks owners is simply to get the program started. What I mean by that is on day one, there is no inventory available outside of what is in the current trust, but Marriott will be selling as if it has availability everywhere. At first, I thought they created a clever way to claw back weeks from II and to trick owners into giving control of weeks to Marriott by signing up. However, after thinking about it some more, I don't think those actions alone are going to work to make the Marriott Vacation Club Points system successful over time.

Points systems are successful when the inventory is predictable and owners can easily learn when to try to get reservations they want for peak season. So, those points systems where there is lots of inventory that gets deposited in advance provides that attribute. Disney has it because all resort units are in the system. Same with WorldMark. Bluegreen has it for resorts that started off completely as points resorts. So will Marriott with those resorts they initially put into the system.

So, to get critical mass of inventory at any current resorts outside of the Trust, they will have to acquire inventory into the Trust or they will never have critical mass. An exchange relationship just doesn't do it.

So, given that, I will predict that Marriott will indeed NOT allow new exchange relationships to enroll, rather they will acquire units via ROFR and via equity trade ins into the program. In this way, they can acquire new inventory at the same time they are moving current points inventory.

The points program will only be as strong as the inventory in the Trust. This will occur only when the current inventory levels at Marriott are worked down sufficiently. But, when that happens, I expect Marriott to be buying. But, they will be buying weeks, not points.

Using this approach, they will back into becoming a point system at all of the current Marriott resorts. If this indeed does happen, then it will be good to own those resale weeks that Marriott needs. And, it means that the resale market for points will be weak for a long time.

BocaBum99 · Jul 5, 2010

In addition to the skim debacle that Marriott created with this program introduction, Marriott made a huge mistake with the maintenance fee program.

First, they should have subsidized it down to around $.25/point for the period of 5 years. After the 5 years, they would add several percentage points to the MF until it came out in balance.

Second, they should have included a base rate plus a low point value. Example. Instead of $.40/point, they should have done something like $500 + $.30/point. So, 5000 points would both have $2000 MF. But, 10000 points would have $3500 instead of $4000. An incentive for having more points than less.

If they did this, they could create a huge incentive for owners to convert into the system via equity trade ins with straight economics. And, there would be an incentive to add points later.

Instead, they introduce skim and immediately put their sales teams on the defensive justifying point skim. It's got to be one of the all time biggest mistakes in point program history.

If Marriott did the above, the smart Tuggers on this board would be all over the trick they are using and panning them for such a ruse. But, owners would be converting in masses.

BocaBum99 · Jul 5, 2010

For completeness, I think that Marriott should also create a bonus time / open season program for last minute availability 30-45 days prior to check in.
Make it either discounted points or great cash rate. Either one is fine.

It will make it easier to sell as some owners will chase that feature. They can actually make it available only to points trust owners and exclude exchange enrollees.

jin · Jul 5, 2010

BocaBum99 said:
The more I think about this Marriott point system, the more I conclude that the early actions of Marriott with respect to resale weeks owners is simply to get the program started. What I mean by that is on day one, there is no inventory available outside of what is in the current trust, but Marriott will be selling as if it has availability everywhere. At first, I thought they created a clever way to claw back weeks from II and to trick owners into giving control of weeks to Marriott by signing up. However, after thinking about it some more, I don't think those actions alone are going to work to make the Marriott Vacation Club Points system successful over time.

Points systems are successful when the inventory is predictable and owners can easily learn when to try to get reservations they want for peak season. So, those points systems where there is lots of inventory that gets deposited in advance provides that attribute. Disney has it because all resort units are in the system. Same with WorldMark. Bluegreen has it for resorts that started off completely as points resorts. So will Marriott with those resorts they initially put into the system.

So, to get critical mass of inventory at any current resorts outside of the Trust, they will have to acquire inventory into the Trust or they will never have critical mass. An exchange relationship just doesn't do it.

So, given that, I will predict that Marriott will indeed NOT allow new exchange relationships to enroll, rather they will acquire units via ROFR and via equity trade ins into the program. In this way, they can acquire new inventory at the same time they are moving current points inventory.

The points program will only be as strong as the inventory in the Trust. This will occur only when the current inventory levels at Marriott are worked down sufficiently. But, when that happens, I expect Marriott to be buying. But, they will be buying weeks, not points.

Using this approach, they will back into becoming a point system at all of the current Marriott resorts. If this indeed does happen, then it will be good to own those resale weeks that Marriott needs. And, it means that the resale market for points will be weak for a long time.

I agree with this, and also feel since they may be exercising ROFR, in addition to a slowly diminishing number of weeks for sale (since Marriott no longer sells weeks, and will be converting any obtained weeks into the trust) that resale values for weeks will actually increase, despite the fact they may or may not ever be eligible for the points program. If I were looking to get into Marriott resorts, I would never consider buying into the points program, but would definitely consider buying a resale Marriott week for use or exchange purposes.... Pete

GregT · Jul 5, 2010

BocaBum99 said:
For completeness, I think that Marriott should also create a bonus time / open season program for last minute availability 30-45 days prior to check in.
Make it either discounted points or great cash rate. Either one is fine.

It will make it easier to sell as some owners will chase that feature. They can actually make it available only to points trust owners and exclude exchange enrollees.

BocaBum,

In my conversation with the guy in customer advocacy at Marriott, he told me that a Bonus Time/Open Season concept was something they definitely intended to introduce, but he didn't know the timeline (by that time, our skim-discount will be permanent -- sorry for mini-rant).

I also think that they begin to ROFR those desirable Platinum weeks that they need for inventory but I don't expect everything to be ROFR'd.

Best to all,

Greg

BocaBum99 · Jul 5, 2010

GregT said:
BocaBum,

In my conversation with the guy in customer advocacy at Marriott, he told me that a Bonus Time/Open Season concept was something they definitely intended to introduce, but he didn't know the timeline (by that time, our skim-discount will be permanent -- sorry for mini-rant).

I also think that they begin to ROFR those desirable Platinum weeks that they need for inventory but I don't expect everything to be ROFR'd.

Best to all,

Greg

Greg,

Let me turn it around on you. If Marriott did not have skim and the average week would earn the average number of points required to book a week in their season, would that change your opinion of the program?

I ask only because I believe that Marriott could have achieved the exact same result without you knowing it. I am testing my thesis that point skim was a complete and utter brain fart concept.

GregT · Jul 5, 2010

BocaBum99 said:
Greg,

Let me turn it around on you. If Marriott did not have skim and the average week would earn the average number of points required to book a week in their season, would that change your opinion of the program?

I ask only because I believe that Marriott could have achieved the exact same result without you knowing it. I am testing my thesis that point skim was a complete and utter brain fart concept.

BocaBum,

If Marriott did not have the skim, I would be a big supporter of the program. I would rather have seen a higher up-front and annual fee (and housekeeping fees) that truly reflected the cost and profitability of the system. We all expected the differing property values between sites, and I think people knew that the points system would make it difficult to trade-up, but would bring terrific flexibility.

I just struggle with skimming as it feels so underhanded and sneaky and not at all what I expected from Marriott.

I think it is a PR disaster and will have a small small number of people who question their allegiance to the brand (I have), but it will be extremely lucrative to Marriott. Frustrating stuff.

All the best,

Greg

BocaBum99 · Jul 5, 2010

GregT said:
BocaBum,

If Marriott did not have the skim, I would be a big supporter of the program. I would rather have seen a higher up-front and annual fee (and housekeeping fees) that truly reflected the cost of profitability of the system. We all expected the differing property values between sites, and I think people knew that the points system would make it difficult to trade-up, but would bring terrific flexibility.

I just struggle with skimming as it feels so underhanded and sneaky and not at all what I expected from Marriott.

I think it is a PR disaster and will have a small small number of people who question their allegiance to the brand (I have), but it will be extremely lucrative to Marriott. Frustrating stuff.

All the best,

Greg

That's what I thought. I think it was ill advised. We shall see how well it sells over time. I wouldn't be surprised if Marriott changes it when they make their very first point adjustments.

If I were Starwood, Hilton, Four Seasons, Wyndham, Hyatt or any other hotel brand point system, this point skim would be a lead competitive selling point against Marriott's points program. Very easy to verify, not really required.

m61376 · Jul 5, 2010

GregT said:
BocaBum,

If Marriott did not have the skim, I would be a big supporter of the program. I would rather have seen a higher up-front and annual fee (and housekeeping fees) that truly reflected the cost and profitability of the system. We all expected the differing property values between sites, and I think people knew that the points system would make it difficult to trade-up, but would bring terrific flexibility.

I just struggle with skimming as it feels so underhanded and sneaky and not at all what I expected from Marriott.

I think it is a PR disaster and will have a small small number of people who question their allegiance to the brand (I have), but it will be extremely lucrative to Marriott. Frustrating stuff.

All the best,

Greg

I agree.

The other thing that surprised me was the way points were allocated. I expected them to be based on some real world valuation, and I still maintain that what Marriott itself charges to rent days/weeks reflects value- since market price is based on supply and demand. I expected that if Marriott charged as much as double the rental at one property than another, it would award at least as many points to the property that commands the higher rental rates. I never expected lower points to be awarded to properties that had double an close to double the rental rates as properties receiving higher point allocations. I assume others may agree with the notion that timeshare users are different people than renters so a different set of valuations apply to them, but to me people are, well, people, and whether a timeshare user or a timeshare or hotel renter, their cost assessment and the airfare/drive-ability issues factor in the same; I don't buy into the concept that things can be more valuable to people who rent but worth less to timeshare owners.

So, while I agree that the skimming is the more "in your face" and more universally a problem, I also think the relative point allocation between different resorts leaves something to be desired wrt equity in some cases. I am not referring to the loss of up-trades- if point allocations were more equitable, and if trading value was truly equivalent, then it would be an overall fair and attractive system. While those used to uptrades don't agree, I think IF the system generated equitable trades overall it would be beneficial. However for many (most) owners the system is designed to provide flexibility but with a cost in value (due to the skimming) and, for owners of certain properties, the point allocations ensure significant downtrades (such as when a week that rents for 6k at Marriott.com can't reserve a week that rents for 3K; for me, that represents a significant disparity in valuations.

cp73 · Jul 5, 2010

I disagree and dont think you will see Marriott exercising ROFR for a long long time...First of all they dont have anyone in this program so they dont need any units....How much inventory does Marriott currently own...we dont know...I would guess they have units at almost all the resorts...What about all the units in default right now...thats part of their inventory.

It took over 20-30 years to get 400,000 timeshares sold in the old program...I bet they dont attract 50,000 persons in this next year into this new points program.

Lets dont forget about the economy...most people can't afford to purchase a timeshare in these economic times...

How many owners off of tug even know about this new program??? None of my 6 friends than own Marriotts know anything about it...

I think many of you on this board think the sky is falling. Its going to be a long long time before we know if Marriott is successful with it. I hope they are. Remember they only did this to attract new sales because the old method just wasn't working...The best thing they have going for themselves in this new program is they can lower the entry point for new buyers.

BocaBum99 · Jul 5, 2010

cp73 said:
I disagree and dont think you will see Marriott exercising ROFR for a long long time...First of all they dont have anyone in this program so they dont need any units....How much inventory does Marriott currently own...we dont know...I would guess they have units at almost all the resorts...What about all the units in default right now...thats part of their inventory.

It took over 20-30 years to get 400,000 timeshares sold in the old program...I bet they dont attract 50,000 persons in this next year into this new points program.

Lets dont forget about the economy...most people can't afford to purchase a timeshare in these economic times...

How many owners off of tug even know about this new program??? None of my 6 friends than own Marriotts know anything about it...

I think many of you on this board think the sky is falling. Its going to be a long long time before we know if Marriott is successful with it. I hope they are. Remember they only did this to attract new sales because the old method just wasn't working...The best thing they have going for themselves in this new program is they can lower the entry point for new buyers.

I agree that Marriott won't do anything until it works down its current inventory. Not sure how much that is.

In the first quarter of this year, Marriott sold $172M worth of timeshares. At $10000/1000 points, they would have to sell 17,200 units of 1000 points to equal that revenue. That would also be 191 units per day. That's heckuva lot of points to sell. It will be interesting to see if they can do it.

If they do achieve that sales volume, they will need to acquire inventory from somewhere. Maybe foreclosures will be enough, maybe not.

If they do start exercising again, you will know why.

dougp26364 · Jul 5, 2010

I'm not 100% convinced that Marriott will have a need to re-aquire old weeks to make this program go. It appears they have a sweetheart deal with Interval to aquire the weeks they want via exchange using current inventory Marriott owns. So long as there is adaquate inventory to give in exchange and, so long as there are adaquate availability through Interval of weeks depsosited by owners not utilizing the points side, Marriott should be able to easily and cheaply aquire the weeks necessary to supply the trust program.

It's going to take a long time to have enough trust owners who are strictly points for inventory to become a problem IMHO. I anticpate that a good number of legacy owners who join will join for the one fee for all services vs the ala carte pricing. As such I would be those owners continue to utlilze the weeks based exchange sytem rather than convert their ownership to points, thus avoiding the skim.

Marriott's arrangement to aquired deposited weeks in exchange for what they own is brilliant for Marriott IMO. No cash outlay to repurchase weeks via ROFR. No expensse to employee people to handle ROFR transactions and, no requirement to pay MF's to the HOA for those weeks on the resale market. It seems to me there is little need for Marriott to agressively hit the resale market to supply the destination club based on the agreement they have in place with Interval so long as they have enough inventory to make the necessary exchanges.

What we might start seeing is better availability of weeks for Interval members at some of the newer resorts. As Marriott aquires weeks for destination club members at the older resorts, they'll need to give up something to Interval to complete the exchange. Marriott's largest pool for exchange units should be the newest resorts. Perhaps we'll see a flurry of Marco Island, Ocean Watch or the new resorts in Orlando and Kauai showing up with Interval.

Cindala · Jul 5, 2010

When I call II, I get the Marriott desk as a Marriott owner. Now this seems to me to be a conflict of interest if I am given the Marriott desk as I am not joining the points program.

If II could have a sweetheart deal with Marriott, who is looking out for my best interests as a deeded weeks owner?

dougp26364 · Jul 5, 2010

Cindala said:
When I call II, I get the Marriott desk as a Marriott owner. Now this seems to me to be a conflict of interest if I am given the Marriott desk as I am not joining the points program.

If II could have a sweetheart deal with Marriott, who is looking out for my best interests as a deeded weeks owner?

Marriott, for as long as I've been an owner, has had the Marriott desk. These are I.I. employee's trained especially to handle Marriott owners exchange request. Even my calls for non-Marriott weeks are direct to the Marriott desk just because I'm a Marriott owner.

I would anticipate that Marriott isn't employing it's own personel to handle exchanges. My bet would be that Marriott is once again contracting the work out to Interval. I would anticipate that these are the same empoyee's that also staff the "Marriott" desk.

Who's looking out for you as an individual owner? You are and, hopefully Marriott is an honest company that doesn't shaft it's existing owners. Right now there's been a blow to their integrity with the way the roll out of the new program has been handled. Before June 20th, I trusted Marriott. After June 20th I'm reserving judgement until I see how Marriott behaves.

It's my opinion that there are a lot of if's with this new program. No one knows exactly how it's going to be run and Marriott isn't going to give out those details. Over the next 2 years TUGGERS will have the program figured out and will know the pitfalls and pluses of the system.

I think what makes everyone nervous right now is the unknown. How will Interval inventory be affected? Who's first in line when it comes to exchange requests? How often and by how much will points be adjusted? Will Marriott take inventory and use for rentals rather put weeks into the pool? Will Marriott be aggresively buying up resale weeks for the program? How will booking your home resort work once there are several points owners potentially competing for the same weeks?

Before June 20th we KNEW the answers. After June 20th we're all relearning the game. By this time next year things will be a little more clear. Until them there will still be speculation and uneasiness amoung Marriott owners and TUG members. None of us know for sure what the future holds. Anyone that tells you they have a complete grasp of the system probably has something to sell you.

GaryDouglas · Jul 6, 2010

On April 22, 2010, Marriott Ownershiip Resorts Inc moved 36 Maui Ocean Club deeds to First American Trust FSB. There were other transfers from other resorts in April to this trust. I don't know if that's the designated trust for the new points system. As Hawaii's Bureau of Conveyances updates their database, I'll pull the numbers for May and June and thoughout the remainder of the year. These should be useful facts going forward. Everything else is conjucture...

cruisin · Jul 6, 2010

dougp26364 said:
It's going to take a long time to have enough trust owners who are strictly points for inventory to become a problem IMHO. I anticpate that a good number of legacy owners who join will join for the one fee for all services vs the ala carte pricing. As such I would be those owners continue to utlilze the weeks based exchange sytem rather than convert their ownership to points, thus avoiding the skim.
.

This is the only feature that makes joining worth it to me, my problem is that after a couple years, they can simply start charging fees for the services again, I am sure it will start out low, but another easy money maker, once they have you, they have you by the.....

MALC9990 · Jul 6, 2010

BocaBum99 said:
The more I think about this Marriott point system, the more I conclude that the early actions of Marriott with respect to resale weeks owners is simply to get the program started. What I mean by that is on day one, there is no inventory available outside of what is in the current trust, but Marriott will be selling as if it has availability everywhere. At first, I thought they created a clever way to claw back weeks from II and to trick owners into giving control of weeks to Marriott by signing up. However, after thinking about it some more, I don't think those actions alone are going to work to make the Marriott Vacation Club Points system successful over time.

Points systems are successful when the inventory is predictable and owners can easily learn when to try to get reservations they want for peak season. So, those points systems where there is lots of inventory that gets deposited in advance provides that attribute. Disney has it because all resort units are in the system. Same with WorldMark. Bluegreen has it for resorts that started off completely as points resorts. So will Marriott with those resorts they initially put into the system.

So, to get critical mass of inventory at any current resorts outside of the Trust, they will have to acquire inventory into the Trust or they will never have critical mass. An exchange relationship just doesn't do it.

So, given that, I will predict that Marriott will indeed NOT allow new exchange relationships to enroll, rather they will acquire units via ROFR and via equity trade ins into the program. In this way, they can acquire new inventory at the same time they are moving current points inventory.

The points program will only be as strong as the inventory in the Trust. This will occur only when the current inventory levels at Marriott are worked down sufficiently. But, when that happens, I expect Marriott to be buying. But, they will be buying weeks, not points.

Using this approach, they will back into becoming a point system at all of the current Marriott resorts. If this indeed does happen, then it will be good to own those resale weeks that Marriott needs. And, it means that the resale market for points will be weak for a long time.

This is exactly how Marriott created and launced the Marriott Vacation Club Asia Pacific. This is a points based system. They bought all the unsold units from MVCI at Phuket Beach Club and Mai Khao Beach Club along with units in Hawaii and Las Vegas from MVCI. They also acuired units in a Condo Development in Bangkok and are doing so in other locations in Asia - big expansion into China.

Additionally they have set up arrangements with a range of Marriott Hotels where you can use your MVCAP points to stay nights at a hotel (just like using your MR points). Also in Australia on the GOLD coast in Queensland a Courtyard hotel is being converted to Timeshare units that will be part of the points system also.

They don't appear to be exercising ROFR at Phuket Beach Club yet, but to get more units avaiulable for points they offered the opportunity to exchange your weeks at Phuket Beach Club for MVCAP points - one week gets me 32,500 points (enough points for a week) - all I had to do was buy into the MVCAP points.

So far I only used points to stay in hotels but the rate was excellent. I stayed 3 nights at the Singapore Marriott for 9000 MVCAP points which is equivalent in value to 45,000 MR points - the MR points rate at the hotel for 3 nights was 90,000 - so a 50% saving on the reward points rate. Of course there is a fee to convert my MVCAP points into MR points.

So far the new Destinations points system has not been rolled out into the European resorts and they are still selling weeks with inventory at Playa Anndaluz, Paris and Majorca but I would guess that it is only a matter of time before they roll out in Europe. None of the reps at Majorca knew anything about this new points scheme when I was there last week. At least they said they knew nothing !!

dougp26364 · Jul 6, 2010

cruisin said:
This is the only feature that makes joining worth it to me, my problem is that after a couple years, they can simply start charging fees for the services again, I am sure it will start out low, but another easy money maker, once they have you, they have you by the.....

The great thing about this membership is that you can elect to non-renew anytime you choose. They have at least made it easy to go back to the old ways.

Fee's will go up. They always do. Internal's exchange fee's have gone up over the years as well. Unless you bought a week strictly to use and never exchange, you'll always be paying increased fee's for memberships, lock-off and exchanges.

Cindala · Jul 6, 2010

dougp26364 said:
Marriott, for as long as I've been an owner, has had the Marriott desk. These are I.I. employee's trained especially to handle Marriott owners exchange request. Even my calls for non-Marriott weeks are direct to the Marriott desk just because I'm a Marriott owner.

I would anticipate that Marriott isn't employing it's own personel to handle exchanges. My bet would be that Marriott is once again contracting the work out to Interval. I would anticipate that these are the same empoyee's that also staff the "Marriott" desk.

So it "should" be business as usual like before the new program. :shrug:

No favoritism towards new points system?

josh1231 · Jul 6, 2010

BocaBum99 said:
The more I think about this Marriott point system, the more I conclude that the early actions of Marriott with respect to resale weeks owners is simply to get the program started. What I mean by that is on day one, there is no inventory available outside of what is in the current trust, but Marriott will be selling as if it has availability everywhere. At first, I thought they created a clever way to claw back weeks from II and to trick owners into giving control of weeks to Marriott by signing up. However, after thinking about it some more, I don't think those actions alone are going to work to make the Marriott Vacation Club Points system successful over time.

Points systems are successful when the inventory is predictable and owners can easily learn when to try to get reservations they want for peak season. So, those points systems where there is lots of inventory that gets deposited in advance provides that attribute. Disney has it because all resort units are in the system. Same with WorldMark. Bluegreen has it for resorts that started off completely as points resorts. So will Marriott with those resorts they initially put into the system.

So, to get critical mass of inventory at any current resorts outside of the Trust, they will have to acquire inventory into the Trust or they will never have critical mass. An exchange relationship just doesn't do it.

So, given that, I will predict that Marriott will indeed NOT allow new exchange relationships to enroll, rather they will acquire units via ROFR and via equity trade ins into the program. In this way, they can acquire new inventory at the same time they are moving current points inventory.

The points program will only be as strong as the inventory in the Trust. This will occur only when the current inventory levels at Marriott are worked down sufficiently. But, when that happens, I expect Marriott to be buying. But, they will be buying weeks, not points.

Using this approach, they will back into becoming a point system at all of the current Marriott resorts. If this indeed does happen, then it will be good to own those resale weeks that Marriott needs. And, it means that the resale market for points will be weak for a long time.

As another poster previously pointed out, Marriott can grab weeks from people who deposit their weeks with interval and make them available to point’s users, thus making the points inventory as strong as the weeks inventory by default. This makes their need to purchase weeks for points programinventory use non-existant.

They have a huge supply of weeks with which to sell points from, and an even larger supply of previously difficult to sell really crappy weeks, which now they can sell because a point is a point. This makes their need to purchase points because of lack of availability of points to sell non-existant.

When you also consider their current financial position, I would be surprised if they exercised ROFR for anything other than the occassional needed week, or ridiculously low sales price.

If they get to a point where they are low on points inventory, they are going to be doing very well financially from selling that entire inventory, and I would think at that point perhaps exercise ROFR, but they could also just build a new property.

For these reasons I simply don't see them exercising ROFR anytime in the near future, though it's not impossible I am wrong as I don't have a crystal ball and can only speculate like anyone else.

RedDogSD · Jul 6, 2010

Cindala said:
When I call II, I get the Marriott desk as a Marriott owner. Now this seems to me to be a conflict of interest if I am given the Marriott desk as I am not joining the points program.

If II could have a sweetheart deal with Marriott, who is looking out for my best interests as a deeded weeks owner?

Just so you know....the guys at the Marriott desk are usually not ONLY working on Marriott properties. I get the same guys when I call the Consolidated Desk for II as when I call the Marriott desk with II. They even admitted to me that they just have certain people trained to understand the specific programs used by some developers.

BocaBum99 · Jul 6, 2010

josh1231 said:
As another poster previously pointed out, Marriott can grab weeks from people who deposit their weeks with interval and make them available to point’s users, thus making the points inventory as strong as the weeks inventory by default. This makes their need to purchase weeks for points programinventory use non-existant.

The point of my post is that even if Marriott has the perfect claw back agreement with II, they rely on 1) the owner depositing for points and 2) and owner depositing their week into II. Those timetables are not very predictable.

What a point system requires is lots of inventory available at the 13 month mark. They can only guarantee that if the trust owns it. That is basis for my assertion that Marriott will want to acquire such weeks.

Bill4728 · Jul 6, 2010

BocaBum99 said:
What a point system requires is lots of inventory available at the 13 month mark. They can only guarantee that if the trust owns it. That is basis for my assertion that Marriott will want to acquire such weeks.

I agree, IMHO, unless Marriott gets a whole bunch of people to join their system, t (OR aggressively acquire weeks) the trust will not have a lot of inventory and be a failure.

camachinist · Jul 6, 2010

What a point system requires is lots of inventory available at the 13 month mark.

One reasonable question wrt this which remains IMO is will Marriott cook the back end of the reservation system to favor the trust? IOW, at any resort, in any peak period, their desired reservations for the trust will simply be executed first, before any 'external' owners reservations can be processed? Days on the 'calendar' can simply 'go away' without explanation and everyone will figure 'darn, I just didn't get in this year'. IMO, that's a real slippery slope and we need owners with historical data and experience to work this going forward. Marriott can promulgate 'separate buckets' all they want, but, unless I see those two shiny new buckets for myself in their reservation system, I'll discount that as factual. Trust with verification

*If* this cooking of the books does happen and weeks owners become disappointed and choose to sell into this down market with such weeks precluded from being eligible for enrollment into DCP, here comes the Hoover (that's Marriott) sweeping them up at low prices with ROFR and taking those deeds and adding to the pot cooking in the boiler room. Yummy.

Edit: It just occurred to me that Marriott could be using the same strategy MBA's use in labor dynamics to 'refresh' the labor force at significant cost advantages and profit enhancement potentials. 'Pruning the tree' of the old, expensive, cranky, tired weeks owners and replacing them with a newer, younger, more flexible 'labor force' with DCP. Interesting. If I hadn't learned of such tactics wrt labor from business colleagues, I never would've considered this.

I'll be watching ROFR activity at my resort, as well as Marriott internal 'deeding' there, closely. It might be time to attend one of those annual HOA meetings and see what's 'cooking'

hotcoffee · Jul 6, 2010

Bill4728 said:
I agree, IMHO, unless Marriott gets a whole bunch of people to join their system, t (OR aggressively acquire weeks) the trust will not have a lot of inventory and be a failure.

It appears to me that the Trust already has a lot of weeks. According to the documentation I received, I was kind of shocked to see all of the MOC weeks they seem to have. Also, the Ko Olina shows up as having a whole bunch of weeks (a lot more than MOC, actually). It looks to me that they have some pretty good resorts in inventory, but I don't know if they are good views. Nevertheless, I suspect they still might grab some good weeks via ROFR (or foreclosue) at resorts that they have little or no inventory.

The points program will not be a failure. They are not going back to the old system. They might tweak the program here and there if and when needed, but they are not going to scrap it.

I believe Marriott will aggressively acquire weeks into Points Trust

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