Speculation About Marriott's New Timeshare Structure [merged]

tombo said:

But you can only get it in theory because all valuable inventory will be booked 12 months in advance.

From the Marriott survey:
"Reservations can be made 12 months before date of occupancy, with a requirement to make reservations of 7 nights or more
· At 6 months before date of occupancy reservations can be booked for 3 nights or more
· At 1 month before date of occupancy, reservations can be booked in nightly increments".

At 6 months (the earliest you can reserve less than 7 nights)no summer weekends at the beach or long weekends at a ski resort in january will remain because all prime weeks available will have been booked the first day by all points owners who had enough points to reserve them. The theory is great, the reality is that only dog weeks will remain available for points reservations at 6 months and especially 1 month before check in. I don't care if you are a points member or a deeded week owner, there never has and never will be any prime inventory available 6 months before check-in. Anyone who has tried to reserve a 4th of july week at the beach one day after the first day you were allowed to reserve can tell you how much prime inventory is left if you are 24 hours late, much less 6 months.

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You're right, but I see three advantages that make this new system sound good, even for prime weeks like the 4th or other holidays.

1. More prime weeks available. A lot of these prime weeks are fixed. Now fixed owners will get so many points it will be like a spending spree. Should they get the one big item they're used to, or should they get a lot of smaller items and more vacations? It will be hard to resist all those other options. Besides that, the price for prime will be significantly higher. Has anyone out there read the book "The Price of Everything?" Raising the price of prime will make some owners think twice about booking. Those who want it will get it and pay for it, but 50% of the owners thinking twice means 50% more inventory.

2. More options. If you own in Hilton Head and call for the summer, maybe your resort gets booked up. With internal exchange, though, you can look at all of the resorts 12 months (or 13 months) in advance. So, Surf Watch may be gone, but then you can try for Barony Beach without having to go on an II waitlist.

3. More flexible. Back to the Hilton Head example. Most clubs are 2-bedrooms that don't lock off. With points as mentioned in the thread, you now have the option to find other beaches and book one room, or a studio, a garden view to save points, or an ocean view. Before you were in this tiny 2-bedroom ocean view box. Now you have all the inventory fit to release at 12 months, including that of the big spenders who are electing to take 3 weeks in a low season for the same cost as the 1 week prime you want.

I do hope they change the booking rules, though. I agree with that. 1 month out for 1-2 nights doesn't make sense at all. They should make it all 12 months out, regardless of # of nights booked...

Asia2000 said:

I'm not sure everyone read the entire letter. Marriott is requesting $1,250 per year for you to use your timeshare via the Points program. For $1,250 a year, I can go rent out a 2 bedroom just about anywhere I want. Or, I can save $1,250 a year, make good interest on it for a five years, and just go buy another week at a destination of my choice. Why would I pay this to Marriott when I can invest it and go buy a into a timeshare that does not have $1,250 membership dues?

Am I missing something here?

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I thought that's what I was saying. $1,250/year is to rich for my blood and, I'd bet it would be to rich for almost anyones pocketbook. It would make no economic sense for anyone to pay that sort of annual membership fee just to belong to a points based exchange system.

tombo said:

But you can only get it in theory because all valuable inventory will be booked 12 months in advance......

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Do you own in a points based system? I don't find this to be necessarily true in the two points based systems we use.

In the current system, owners are going against owners (and Marriott if you will) for the most popular weeks. Some are trying to reserve them for personal use but some are trying to reserve them strictly for exchange power.

In a points based system there is no incentive to book a holiday week just to deposit for exchange. Points have equal value. That actually leaves MORE inventory for owners.

I believe the reality will be that you'll see more inventory for those that own Marriott and less of the high demand times deposited into Interval for outsiders to snag. Marriott will have a contract that guarentee's Interval a certain number of weeks of a specified quality but, Marriott will still allow owners first choice in reserving the weeks they want for personal usage.

With our points based ownership, I find MORE availabilty within those systems, not less. The fear that everything is booked 12 months in advance is false.

ok, without having to weed thru 1,957 posts to get to the bottom line....did the dreaded points system roll out yet, now that June is finally here?

And if so, what does it mean to us resale purchasers who bought platinum weeks with the intention to use our weeks at our home resort?

Asia2000 said:

I'm not sure everyone read the entire letter. Marriott is requesting $1,250 per year for you to use your timeshare via the Points program. For $1,250 a year, I can go rent out a 2 bedroom just about anywhere I want. Or, I can save $1,250 a year, make good interest on it for a five years, and just go buy another week at a destination of my choice. Why would I pay this to Marriott when I can invest it and go buy a into a timeshare that does not have $1,250 membership dues?

Am I missing something here?

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I'm reading it differently - it appears that the $1,250/year is for the "Preferred Resort Priority" which appears to be a separate election:

Instead of a Home Resort Guarantee, what if you had priority access to a group of similar resorts (such as beach locations, golf resorts etc) for a period of time? For example, if you could specify that for the next three years you would have priority access to any property within the Marriott Vacation Club system that has direct beach access. Similarly, what if you could pick the three specific resorts within the Marriott Vacation Club system you want to stay at for the next three years and have a priority access to those resorts?
Assume you enroll your week into the Vacation Points Exchange Program and you receive 25,000 Vacation Points. This would be equivalent to the number of Vacation Points a first time buyer would receive for a $25,000 purchase. How likely would you be to pay a fee of $3750 to have a Preferred Resort Priority for a three year period?

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It appears that if you don't elect that, the fee would only be $159/year:

In the Vacation Points Exchange Program, there may be an annual fee of $159 which may include these and other transaction fees currently paid on a per transaction basis.

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I'd want to know more about how that Preferred Resort Priority would work, if those folks would have a jump on the 12/6/1-month reservation period which would put the "basic" $159 points owners at a disadvantage, and whether or not the fee is applicable per individual weeks owned. I think multi-week owners have a distinct advantage anyway, being able to combine points for all sorts of stays, but if that fee is per ownership instead of per week it might be worth considering. I'd look at it as another annual m/f and try to figure out if what I own could be worked out to at least another week without sacrificing resort quality.

MRMarriott said:

You're right, but I see three advantages that make this new system sound good, even for prime weeks like the 4th or other holidays.

1. More prime weeks available. A lot of these prime weeks are fixed. Now fixed owners will get so many points it will be like a spending spree. Should they get the one big item they're used to, or should they get a lot of smaller items and more vacations? It will be hard to resist all those other options. Besides that, the price for prime will be significantly higher. Has anyone out there read the book "The Price of Everything?" Raising the price of prime will make some owners think twice about booking. Those who want it will get it and pay for it, but 50% of the owners thinking twice means 50% more inventory.

2. More options. If you own in Hilton Head and call for the summer, maybe your resort gets booked up. With internal exchange, though, you can look at all of the resorts 12 months (or 13 months) in advance. So, Surf Watch may be gone, but then you can try for Barony Beach without having to go on an II waitlist.

3. More flexible. Back to the Hilton Head example. Most clubs are 2-bedrooms that don't lock off. With points as mentioned in the thread, you now have the option to find other beaches and book one room, or a studio, a garden view to save points, or an ocean view. Before you were in this tiny 2-bedroom ocean view box. Now you have all the inventory fit to release at 12 months, including that of the big spenders who are electing to take 3 weeks in a low season for the same cost as the 1 week prime you want.

I do hope they change the booking rules, though. I agree with that. 1 month out for 1-2 nights doesn't make sense at all. They should make it all 12 months out, regardless of # of nights booked...

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Not going to work in reality because:

1. There are limited number of prime weeks at each resort. The number of prime weeks at each resort will not change when Marriott turns to points. Fixed week owners will rarely join points hoping to use their points for a fixed prime week they already own. if you use Marriotts estimate of 22% of owners joing the first year then 78% of all inventory(prime and dog) will remain deeded weeks. The vast majority of people who swap to points will swap because they have had limited success swapping their bronze weeks for good inventory, or because II has not worked well for them, or because the salesman convinced them that they had to or they would be left behind. Now all of these new points members will be ready to get long weekends at the beach and prime weeks they couldn't get before with their newly purchased points. A very small percent of prime inventory will be swapped to points IMO because people who own prime weeks aren't unhappy about what they get each year. Why pay $1000's to upgrade when you already own a prime week that you get each and every year hoping to buy a prime week with points? If marriott doesn't cheat and steal inventory from the deeded owners you will have less chance of getting a prime week in points than in weeks and almost zero chance of swapping points for nightly stays at a time and location you would like to stay.

2. There are no more options since there is no more inventory and in fact there will be less inventory. If they were building new points only resorts, then yes more options, but to simply siphon what inventory they can from the existing system will not create any new inventory or options. if they don't cheat the only inventory available to exchange for internally will be the weeks deposited by those who swapped to points, and that inventory pool will be smaller than II's Marriott inventory for at least a few years.

3. People can't stay 3 weeks unless 3 weeks are deposited. If a one bed room get 12,000 points and he deposits it and a 3 bed room gets 36,000 and they deposit theirs, it takes 3 one bed room owners to get availability for 3 weeks for the 3 bed room owner. If 3 one bed room points owners deposit their 3 weeks, and the 3 bed room owner takes all 3 weeks, what will the one bed room owners buy with their points? They can't buy a 3 bed room because they only have 12,000 points and that costs 36,000. they can't trade for a 2 bed room because that costs 24,000 points and they only have 12,000 points. So 3 one bed room owners deposited their weeks and one 3 bed room owner took all 3 one bed room weeks leaving the 3 one bed room owners out of luck with points they can't trade for anything. Will they be happy with points and willing to deposit their weeks next year? Nope, they will have to shell out extra money for the home resort option to be able to use what they bought. Not a good deal for the one bed room owners at all, and not good for the 3 bed room owner if the one bed room owners get mad and refuse to deposit their weeks into the points pool in the future.

The theory is great. The salesman will promise you the moon and convince you that you can use the points anyway you want to, but the reality is that the points system is not the flexible panacea they tout it to be.

laurac260 said:

ok, without having to weed thru 1,957 posts to get to the bottom line....did the dreaded points system roll out yet, now that June is finally here?

And if so, what does it mean to us resale purchasers who bought platinum weeks with the intention to use our weeks at our home resort?

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No it did not, we are still dealing in hypothetical dreams and nightmares.

Come on in and join us, it's fun!

dougp26364 said:

I thought that's what I was saying. $1,250/year is to rich for my blood and, I'd bet it would be to rich for almost anyones pocketbook. It would make no economic sense for anyone to pay that sort of annual membership fee just to belong to a points based exchange system.

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Remember, this was a survey, and if I remember correctly, their questions generally tried to discern at what price point someone would consider the options they were proposing. So any hypotheticals were just stakes in the sand. Anybody else out there remember the same thing?

SueDonJ said:

No it did not, we are still dealing in hypothetical dreams and nightmares.

Come on in and join us, it's fun!

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Ok, then I would like to add that I think Marriott was going to give everyone a free timeshare with purchase of the points system.

How likely would you be to pay a fee of $3750 to have a Preferred Resort Priority for a three year period?

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I was reading this on my phone during breakfast and almost died choking on my cereal when I read it... I then proceeded to involuntarily blurt out the "F word" in front of my 4 year old.

What were they smoking when they wrote that survey?

DanCali said:

I was reading this on my phone during breakfast and almost died choking on my cereal when I read it... I then proceeded to involuntarily blurt out the "F word" in front of my 4 year old.

What were they smoking when they wrote that survey?

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Marriottjuana

laurac260 said:

Ok, then I would like to add that I think Marriott was going to give everyone a free timeshare with purchase of the points system.

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A free timeshare, plus one of those really plush huge white beach towels with the resort logo and a refillable mug. Yeah, that's the ticket.

billymach4 said:

Marriottjuana

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BWAHAHAHAHAhahahahaha!!

DanCali said:

I was reading this on my phone during breakfast and almost died choking on my cereal when I read it... I then proceeded to involuntarily blurt out the "F word" in front of my 4 year old.

What were they smoking when they wrote that survey?

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Some owners will gladly pay an additional $1250 a year to be guaranteed 4th of july week on the beach in hilton head or new years eve week in Vegas rather than hoping to exchange for those hard to get weeks with their current weeks or newly acquired points. Of course they are buying inventory that was available to all in the past and making it private for the next 3 years. Win for marriott since they get an extra $3750 every 3 years, win for the owners who guarantee themselves the same prime weeks for 3 years, but a lose situation resulting in reduced inventory for the owners (Points or weeks) who refuse to pay the extortion.

As I said new advantages given to those who pay to convert have to come at the expense of those who don't because the points system doesn't increase the amount of Marriott inventory in existence, only the way that inventory is allocated. Pay Marriott more money for something you already own, or watch your access to inventory shrink. How can anyone feel like that is a good thing?

tombo said:

... Pay Marriott more money for something you already own, or watch your access to inventory shrink. How can anyone feel like that is a good thing?

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Well I'm not sure how many folks are in the same boat with me and suspect that it's less than the number in your boat, but in my case what I already own pretty much guarantees me a trade-down with exchanges. So there's a possibility that this might be a good thing, with respect to exchanges, if my 3BR weeks get me same-size/quality weeks or the same 2BR we're already "enjoying" with II plus something extra. I'm still not certain of anything and won't be until (and unless) Marriott actually puts something on the table, but for now I'm more encouraged than not.

Considering that I love love LOVE the flexibility in DVC's point system and what's in that old survey from Marriott matches some of that system's most appealing features - varying nights and resorts, banking and borrowing, priority access to specific resorts - it's no surprise that I could find something good here. But the cost is definitely a concern, as is the possibility that a home resort advantage could be sacrificed to get those appealing features.

tombo said:

Some owners will gladly pay an additional $1250 a year to be guaranteed 4th of july week on the beach in hilton head or new years eve week in Vegas rather than hoping to exchange for those hard to get weeks with their current weeks or newly acquired points.

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Well, the assumption is you still need enough points to secure that super prime week so if you start with a Bronze week you may get that Platinum Plus week once every 3 years. So $3750 for a one time use is steep by any measure.

And if you start with a Hawaii or HHI Platinum week week but want to secure 4th of July week every year - $1250 for that privilege is high.

In that case one would be much better off securing a good week, renting it out and then renting the 4th of July week from a different owner. For example, NCV week 26 is Platinum Plus but if I rent out my August reservation and then look on RedWeek for a 4th of July week I may need to add $200 at most to get it. In fact, it's hard to say there is a significant premium for 4th of July rentals at this resort when you look at asking prices. Sure, it's a bit more hassle, but saves you $1000/year...

billymach4 said:

Marriottjuana

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Good one! :hysterical:

It's all trust

tombo said:

Some owners will gladly pay an additional $1250 a year to be guaranteed 4th of july week on the beach in hilton head or new years eve week in Vegas rather than hoping to exchange for those hard to get weeks with their current weeks or newly acquired points. Of course they are buying inventory that was available to all in the past and making it private for the next 3 years. Win for marriott since they get an extra $3750 every 3 years, win for the owners who guarantee themselves the same prime weeks for 3 years, but a lose situation resulting in reduced inventory for the owners (Points or weeks) who refuse to pay the extortion.

As I said new advantages given to those who pay to convert have to come at the expense of those who don't because the points system doesn't increase the amount of Marriott inventory in existence, only the way that inventory is allocated. Pay Marriott more money for something you already own, or watch your access to inventory shrink. How can anyone feel like that is a good thing?

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If that prime July 4th unit week goes to one of the thousands of owners who have a right to reserve it under the current system OR goes to one of the owners who decides to take an ownership amount of points equal to that value and reserve it the unit is just as gone. The people who change over to points fight with others in points ONLY based on percentage of conversions while the "old" owners fight it out over the rest. No one gained any upper hand they didn't already have. All of this assumes Marriott is fairly administering both systems as they hold all the keys. If they are favoring anyone - resale, retail, multiple owners, points owners - whoever - and it is not spelled out in the original documents that there is such a priority then they, IMO, are violating the trust they are entrusted with by being the appointed management. In that case they need to bring in an outside and unbiased management for operations as they prove themselves to be unworthy of that job. Anyone feel that is the case? If not then you are saying you trust them to be fair in all dealings. You better hope so as you are subject to the process and paying dearly for that management.

With our (non-MARRIOTT) points systems in every case the resort management is NOT the operator of the points or weeks system(s). I wouldn't want it any other way as there needs to be checks and balances rather than 100% trust in one company. The temptation can prove to be just too great no matter who it may be.

DanCali said:

Well, the assumption is you still need enough points to secure that super prime week so if you start with a Bronze week you may get that Platinum Plus week once every 3 years. So $3750 for a one time use is steep by any measure.

And if you start with a Hawaii or HHI Platinum week week but want to secure 4th of July week every year - $1250 for that privilege is high.

In that case one would be much better off securing a good week, renting it out and then renting the 4th of July week from a different owner. For example, NCV week 26 is Platinum Plus but if I rent out my August reservation and then look on RedWeek for a 4th of July week I may need to add $200 at most to get it. In fact, it's hard to say there is a significant premium for 4th of July rentals at this resort when you look at asking prices. Sure, it's a bit more hassle, but saves you $1000/year...

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At a resort I own where they went to points they charged you for points conversion from deeded floating week, then in addition to points conversion fees you could pay a one time fee that allowed you access to the week and unit listed on your deed one month earlier than anyone else would be allowed to reserve that week and unit. So most (if not all )of the people with week 26 or 27 on their deeds paid the one time fee locking everyone else out from ever getting 4th of July in the unit on their deed no matter how many points you own. I was getting 4th of july 3 out of 4 years before the change and since the change not once.

If your MF's are $1000 and for an additional $1250 you can guarantee yourself 4th of july week every year you are in effect paying $2250 annually for your MF's and for your floating/points week to become your private fixed week. Retail that would have cost an additional what $10,000 to $15,000 if it was even offered. So yes many can and will justify that expense for the security of knowing what week they will get every year, and by doing so they will also assure that no other Marriott owner will have access to their prime week whether the other marriott owners purchased retail or resale, and whether they have converted to points or not. That is not fair to anyone IMO.

tombo said:

So many can and will justify that expense for the security of knowing what week they will get every year, and by doing so they will also assure that no other marriott owner will have access to their week whether they purchased retail or resale, and whether they have converted to points or not. That is not fair to anyone IMO.

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2 comments...

How much does it cost to rent the 4th of July week. I assume not much more than $2250? So why own?

Also, shouldn't there be weeks 26 and 27 available for the owners who didn't convert - in proportion to the unconverted/converted deeds? For example, for a resort like NCV, if 30% of Platinum deeds converted, then should take 30% if each available week in that season to the points system and leave the rest for weeks. They can't just decide they take July and August for points and leave Sep-Dec for weeks - or can they?

DanCali said:

2 comments...

How much does it cost to rent the 4th of July week. I assume not much more than $2250? So why own?

Also, shouldn't there be weeks 26 and 27 available for the owners who didn't convert - in proportion to the unconverted/converted deeds? For example, for a resort like NCV, if 30% of Platinum deeds converted, then should take 30% if each available week in that season to the points system and leave the rest for weeks. They can't just decide they take July and August for points and leave Sep-Dec for weeks - or can they?

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I assume you will be correct that there will not be a large per cent of owners who pay the $3750, but the $3750 sales pitch works best on those with the best weeks. I have week 25 on my deed which is a good week but not worth the extortion. If my deeded week was week 26 or 27 I might have capitulated and paid to have the right to that week each and every year. So my point is that a larger per cent of the prime weeks will see the advantage and convert to fixed.

If 10,000 platinum week owners applied for 4th of july every year and there were a total of 1000 units at the resort, 10% of those who applied would get the prime week. now with marriott pitching the advantage of having a fixed prime week each year to all deeded owners with week 26 or 27 (which the salesforce knows before you walk in), then they can get a large part of the owners who have week 26 and week 27 to pay the $3750 and lock in their week. So if 50% of the week 26 and 27 owners pay the $3750 to convert to fixed weeks, that will be 9500 platinum week owners fighting over the remaining 500 units that are now available to reserve changing the odds from 10% to 5%. if marriott cheats and places weeks inventory in point pool, then the odds could get worse. If Marriott offers discounts to people with prime weeks or other incentives to get more prime week owners to convert to points and/or fixed weeks, the odds could get really bad of getting a good week. The amount of units/weeks is fixed and not changing unless they build new resorts, so every time they remove units from your pool your odds of getting what you want each year get slimmer and slimmer.

By the way, we have discussing the scenario based on the assumption that Marriott will proceed as my other resort did based on the week on the deed. How about the more likely scenario where Marriott offers fixed 4th of july weeks for $3750 to the first point owners who will pay it until the number of fixed 4th of july weeks equals 30% or 50% of the total available inventory (whatever arbritrary cutoff point Marriott chooses). This could be offered to ANY and EVERY platinum week owner no matter what is on the deed. NOW marriott has really increased the number of people they can sell the $3750 pkge to, and of course they can't buy the package unless they convert to points, so they have provided another incentive for platinum owners to convert to points. The more owners that convert, the less available inventory for those who refuse to convert. And of course we aren't only talking about reducing the prime inventory like 4th of july, we are talking about reducing available inventory at every level every time an owner converts to points.

SueDonJ said:

A free timeshare, plus one of those really plush huge white beach towels with the resort logo and a refillable mug. Yeah, that's the ticket.

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well, apparently no one else wants to play but us...

Ignore things that aren't even possible

tombo said:

Some owners will gladly pay an additional $1250 a year to be guaranteed 4th of july week on the beach in hilton head or new years eve week in Vegas rather than hoping to exchange for those hard to get weeks with their current weeks or newly acquired points. Of course they are buying inventory that was available to all in the past and making it private for the next 3 years. Win for marriott since they get an extra $3750 every 3 years, win for the owners who guarantee themselves the same prime weeks for 3 years, but a lose situation resulting in reduced inventory for the owners (Points or weeks) who refuse to pay the extortion.

As I said new advantages given to those who pay to convert have to come at the expense of those who don't because the points system doesn't increase the amount of Marriott inventory in existence, only the way that inventory is allocated. Pay Marriott more money for something you already own, or watch your access to inventory shrink. How can anyone feel like that is a good thing?

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Is there actually any resort that has such a poorly written set of documents that after the fact management has a right to remove weeks from a pool owners paid to have access to & restrict it to a new subset of those owners? I highly doubt it as that type of thing is exactly what disclosure documents are required to prevent.

When you purchase a deeded property - even if the deed if for float rather than fixed time periods - no one can go back later and change what you are entitled to as an owner. If they could the deed would be meaningless and nothing is further from the truth. This type of wild speculation about something that cannot possibly happen is a needles waste of time & effort. Worry about the things that can happen - there are plenty of those.

timeos2 said:

Is there actually any resort that has such a poorly written set of documents that after the fact management has a right to remove weeks from a pool owners paid to have access to & restrict it to a new subset of those owners? I highly doubt it as that type of thing is exactly what disclosure documents are required to prevent.

When you purchase a deeded property - even if the deed if for float rather than fixed time periods - no one can go back later and change what you are entitled to as an owner. If they could the deed would be meaningless and nothing is further from the truth. This type of wild speculation about something that cannot possibly happen is a needles waste of time & effort. Worry about the things that can happen - there are plenty of those.

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Every week Platinum week that Marriott can convince an owner to voluntarilly convert to points will fall under the NEW POINTS RULES AND GUIDELINES. marriott can't change what the owners deed originally entitled them to, but once they sign papers giving up those rights to become a points member the original rights are gone. Owners can do whatever they want with their weeks, rent them, use them, deposit them with II, or join marriott's points program and deposit their week there, Non points members will not have access to those weeks any more than non II members would have access to weeks deposited with II. Within the points program Mariott will decide if certain memebrs can buy fixed weeks for a price, how many can be purchased, how much they cost, and mariott will decide how many points each week is assigned and how many points each week costs to stay there. marriott will set the rules and all who convert to points will have to follow the rules, and they will sign a contract obligating them to do so. Marriott has a fleet of lawyers and they will do it legally. morally is another question, but it will be done legally.

This is not a far out conspiracy theory. Timeshare developers at all sorts of resorts are converting deeded owners to points and often actually taking ownership of the deeded week. Not only can it happen, it is happening at many resorts run by various developers, and if the rumors are true it will happen very soon at Marriott.

good evening...

Let me make sure I get this right. Hypothetically, I purchase a "primo" platinum MVCI week (ski week, Hawaii, summer in HHI etc) I am told not only am I guaranteed occupancy in season, but it has great trading power and other benefits. Now I am asked to give it back for points so I can spend 2 weeks in a "doggy" unit. If I want to retain "home resort" priority or gain an advantage "Resort type priority" in trading, I will have to fork up MORE "coin" in addition to the 40K I may have already paid for the unit!!!!

Doug tells me that all I am entitled to is occupancy "in season" and everything else is gravy. Now I am being asked to pay more for a second serving of "gravy"

yikes...

Perry may be right!!!