[2014] Most plausible explanation of mystery of Malasyian Flight 370

ace2000 said:

Read post #93

http://tugbbs.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1603729&postcount=93

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No, I caught that the first time. If they're both being frantically searched, curious why you're drawn to the crash scenario, that's all.

Phydeaux said:

A few key differences here than with 911. First, is there cellular coverage in this area?,second, if pax were unconscious, they can't call. Nor can they call if their phones were all collected.

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My point exactly. No cell coverage in the deep ocean. Try collecting phones from 235 people - if they started at one end or even both ends, the people in the middle could at least type out a text or email message that would continually try to send until it gets into cell range.

Guaranteed at least one person would hide their phone before you got to them.

Quadmaniac said:

My point exactly. No cell coverage in the deep ocean. Try collecting phones from 235 people - if they started at one end or even both ends, the people in the middle could at least type out a text or email message that would continually try to send until it gets into cell range.

Guaranteed at least one person would hide their phone before you got to them.

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Your point exactly that unconscious passengers could hammer out a text message too?

If the plane simply went down and crashed, it would be like slamming into concrete, so there would be plenty of debris floating around, right? Is there any way for an intact airliner to be at the bottom of the ocean?

Phydeaux said:

You don't suppose anyone is looking at those 600 runways also?

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If a plane were to be hijacked (by the pilots or others) with the intent of landing safely, I think the circumstances dictate that far less than 600 of those runways make sense. Let's consider that no ransom demands have been made and nobody has claimed responsibility. Can we agree that these are the two plausible reasons why group would hijack the plane?

1. Plane was hijacked solely for the purpose of robbing those aboard of their belongings? Seems like an obscenely difficult way to make some money.

2. Plane was hijacked with the intent of using it at a later date for a terrorist act.

Scenario number two means they would need an 8000+ foot runway to take off again, and it would be nearly impossible to do so while avoiding detection.

Can you think of any other reason the plane would be hijacked and landed safely?

Chrispee said:

Scenario number two means they would need an 8000+ foot runway to take off again, and it would be nearly impossible to do so while avoiding detection.

Can you think of any other reason the plane would be hijacked and landed safely?

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They also need a runway that enables the plane to effectively be hidden from aerial surveillance. I.e, a runway in the middle of a desert is probably not a viable location.

T_R_Oglodyte said:

They also need a runway that enables the plane to effectively be hidden from aerial surveillance. I.e, a runway in the middle of a desert is probably not a viable location.

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Exactly. So you're looking at an 8000' strip in a mountainous region that a pilot would have had to land with no navigational aid, without anybody seeing it. The combined factors make me believe that the plane is in the deep blue or obliterated in a mountain valley, but I'm definitely still open to other interpretations.

Whilst the runways might be unused they aren't really isolated. A plane landing on any of the islands in SE Asia, including the "uninhabited" ones, would most likely run over an Australian backpacker. The Kazakh Civil Aviation Committee has said that the plane would have been picked up by radar if it went over India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The military is a little touchy in that area.

I'm coming late to this party, but found this article quite interesting. What do you experts think?

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Dave

BMWguynw said:

I'm coming late to this party, but found this article quite interesting. What do you experts think?

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Dave

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Already discussed extensively upthread, beginning with post #1. (You're not just coming late to the party; it appears that you may not have read the invitation. :rofl

T_R_Oglodyte said:

Already discussed extensively upthread, beginning with post #1. (You're not just coming late to the party; it appears that you may not have read the invitation. :rofl

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LOL! Actually I did read it initially, but with so many twists in this thread since, its hard to keep up, and I forgot I'd read it. You guys are amazing in your theorizing.

So what about reports of the plane flying low over the Maldives? Why would all those people claim to see it, yet the authorities say it didn't happen?

Dave

Quadmaniac said:

My point exactly. No cell coverage in the deep ocean. Try collecting phones from 235 people - if they started at one end or even both ends, the people in the middle could at least type out a text or email message that would continually try to send until it gets into cell range.

Guaranteed at least one person would hide their phone before you got to them.

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Once again, not if they're all unconscious.

CarolF said:

Whilst the runways might be unused they aren't really isolated. A plane landing on any of the islands in SE Asia, including the "uninhabited" ones, would most likely run over an Australian backpacker. The Kazakh Civil Aviation Committee has said that the plane would have been picked up by radar if it went over India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The military is a little touchy in that area.

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Huh? Isolated, uninhibited means just that. They're aren't human beings on every square mile of planet.

Phydeaux said:

Huh? Isolated, uninhibited means just that. They're aren't human beings on every square mile of planet.

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I can assure you that there are plenty of surfers and hikers from around the world camping on those isolated, "uninhabited islands" in SE Asia. 30 years ago the only way to get to Pulau Perhentian Besar or Kecil was to pay a fisherman to drop you there. To get back you either flagged a passing fishing boat down by standing on the beach or a hill and waving at them or made arrangements for them to collect you in a week or so. The monitor lizards walked on you whilst you slept on the beach and there wasn't a water supply. These days SE Asia Islands are regularly used by travellers with many interests and often the wilder the better. You still get there via fishing boats and even though there isn't a year around, permanent community, "local" people sail there regularly to sell food and water and make money from the captives , just as they have for as long as I can remember.

Malaysia Airlines Expands Investigation To Include General Scope Of Space, Time

http://www.theonion.com/articles/malaysian-airlines-expands-investigation-to-includ,35524/

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA—Following a host of conflicting reports in the wake of the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 last Saturday, representatives from the Kuala Lumpur–based carrier acknowledged they had widened their investigation into the vanished Boeing 777 aircraft today to encompass not only the possibilities of mechanical failure, pilot error, terrorist activity, or a botched hijacking, but also the overarching scope of space, time, and humankind’s place in the universe.

“We continue to do everything in our power and explore every possible lead—both Cartesian and phenomenological—to locate the aircraft as quickly as possible,” said Malaysia’s civil aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, who went on to say that authorities were still actively seeking tips from anyone claiming knowledge related either to the flight, or to the mechanisms by which consciousness arises, or to the question of why anything physical and finite exists instead of nothing at all. “At this stage, we can’t rule anything out: not crew interference with the transponders, not a catastrophic electrical failure, not the emergence of a complex topological feature of space-time such as an Einstein-Rosen bridge that could have deposited the flight at any location in the universe or a different time period altogether, nothing.”

“Could a parallel universe have immediately swelled up from random cosmological fluctuation according to the multiverse theory and swallowed the flight into its folds, or could ice have built up on an airspeed sensor? Those are both options we are currently considering,” Rahman added. “Everything’s on the table. That is, insofar as anything exists at all, which we’re also looking into.”


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The local news outlets are now reporting that Australia has found something (satelite images) off their coast and that they have sent planes...expect to arrive at the 'site' in a couple of hours.

Ingrid

Looks like chance of MH370 debris off Australia, W. of Perth. Stay tuned.

BMWguynw said:

I'm coming late to this party, but found this article quite interesting. What do you experts think?

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Dave

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This has also been my guess since I first saw the article. Just as I was starting to post this, I noticed there is some news from Australia, so will have to check that out.

AMSA's John Young now speaking.

Given the information currently out, what remains is identifying the debris and, if that of MH370, backtracking the currents to a potential search area.

Information on Ocean currents in the area from Wood's Hole:

http://www.whoi.edu/sbl/liteSite.do?litesiteid=81593

Search area is 2500km southwest of Perth. One P3 Orion on station and one US P8 Poseidon on station or near station. Expecting a total of four aircraft on station this afternoon.

The Payne Stewart scenario, if this is indeed MH370, would appear to become more likely, IMO.

Mr. Young says largest image size appears to be 24 meters in one direction, so around 75' (later stated on CNN as 62'). Poor visibility currently in area.

Flight time for search aircraft (P3) from Perth is four hours and it can remain on station for up to two hours before requiring return. The P8, a Boeing 737 derivative, can get there a lot faster and loiter similarly or longer, as well as has newer investigative equipment.

Press conference continuing. Go Australia!

deleted .....

Phydeaux said:

Here's another prediction - a number of folks that have posted their theories on this thread are going to be dropping off the thread.

Alternatively, if my theory was incorrect, I'll be back here to admit I was incorrect.

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Frankly the news "reports" have been 98% pure speculation. There's actually very little we do know. Until the plane is found we'll never know.

I've chosen to step away from this because it's taking too much of my time and we're just going to continue to go around in circles using whatever reported speculation to point fingers to what we believe. I'll be more then happy to come back to admit what I believe to be the most likely outcome was incorrect. However, that may be a very long time to possibly never.

There are 2 major categories of theories: emergency event vs. nefarious event. FWIW, I still personally believe and lean towards a catastrophic emergency event.

If that is the wreckage, there should have been an ELT going off, or even a transmitter from the black box. There was no mention of that in the news. I will be surprised if it is the wreckage. Also, if the plane crashed into the ocean or land, satellites should have picked up the ELT and they should have found it earlier.

Hopefully I am wrong and they find MH 370 and we don't have to worry about terrorists using that plane to make an attack.

Phydeaux said:

Agreed, and no ping. And with each passing day, this theory becomes more and more likely.

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How does each passing day make this theory more and more likely? Couldn't it be argued that with each passing day it's more and more likely that it's on the deep ocean floor somewhere in the Indian Ocean? If it's on land somewhere it should be easier to locate with intensive searching then if it's on the bottom of the ocean floor.

Phydeaux said:

Huh? Isolated, uninhibited means just that. They're aren't human beings on every square mile of planet.

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You not only need a runway long enough to handle a 777, but you need one strong enough. That's a very heavy aircraft and if it's a soft runway (dirt, clay, grass, etc.) the landing gear would sink in on landing causing the aircraft to be torn apart. You would also need a way to quickly hide it from our satellites which you know are looking, and that would take a very big hangar. I guess it could be covered with camouflage, but I would hope our spy satellites would be able to detect something that big being camouflaged. All that makes it highly unlikely it could've safetly been landed and hidden on some remote unihabited island.

All right, good night!