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Short and long term pricing of retail points due to Wyndham changes

Railman83

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There are a lot of countervailing market forces at work as the changes Wyndham made will be appealing to some potential buyers and devastating to some existing owners.

If this "ends megarenting as we know it" for Wyndham, the points managers will not be able to offer value to their subordinate owners, and those owners will likely sell or use Ovation...they all have different stories, but I suspect for most the choice was use a points manager or sell, rather than use a points manager or vacation more. This would, after a few cycles of closing and transfer tend to create a massive supply glut that would drive prices down.

The mega renters that gave built a business model around this have plenty of systems to move to. My DVC mfs are $6 and I can rent for $14 and I don't need complicated gaming to get those margins. FYI the DVC mega guys will pay owners $13-14 and rent for $15-16...sounds thin but they carry zero inventory.

At the same time these wyndham changes would seem to add value to individual small (sub gold) contracts over the longer run. It would also remove the population at large option of being able to rent cheaper than an owner could pay for points (e.g. If you get a 4br Presidential for studio price there is plenty of margin now for mega renter and owner profit and the renter to get a deal.) I think a lot of owners, myself included, stop at a certain point and say $817k is enough and if run short, I'll rent...better than buying too many points that might go to waste. Same for current non-owners, why buy the cow?

I suspect after the initial glut is worked thru, prices will start to rise, though this might take years.

Thoughts?
 

Railman83

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So my overall prediction is depress prices on resale for 3-4years then gradual rise...assumes no major ROFR change.
 

cayman01

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I think you will see low maintenance fee resorts rise in value and high maintenance fee resorts lose all their value. as MF's continue to rise the Bali Hai, Canterbury, National Harbors will be in greater demand. I think we will see quite an increase in Ovation take backs moving forward and a sharp increase in CWA MF's. This will depress CWA unless they add some low MF new resorts to the inventory (speaking of which, does anybody know the MF 's for Clearwater Beach and how much of it is in CWA?).
 

Railman83

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1,000,000 cwa just sold on eBay for $2500. A few weeks ago contract for 1,000,000 cwa was $6600 and I haven't charted but seems about 40-50 percent lower so you might be on to something.
 

vacationhopeful

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Large contracts should go up in value .. have a Platinum account, why would you add a 203K contract or a 900K contract? ... if you are limited to having under 16 contracts in your member number. Even for personal or extended family use .... Platinum is more desirable.
 

55plus

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I am a renter, not a mega renter. The changes will have no affect on me. However, I know a mega renter who is devastated by some of the changes. He is planning to leave the business and asked me if I was interested in some contracts, which I'm not.
 

dagger1

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Sumday just sold 1M CWA for $4,025 plus $299 closing/transfer...
 

wjappraise

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I wonder if we start seeing fire sales in the "bargain deal" board

Probably will see some, although it is too soon for me to contemplate it. Plus I am still only partially "thawed" from the Great Suspension of August 2016 so I cannot sell any contracts until such time as the Great and Mighty Oz (Owner Care) condescends enough to reach out to the great unwashed masses, of which I am a living, breathing part. Does the bitterness show?
 

happyhopian

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I just posted this in another thread but wanted everyone in here to see it as well since I did the home work. I invite you to do the same and keep up with the trends but just be sure to look back at the historicals in the other resale pricing thread before jumping to any conclusions.


There is ZERO downward movement in the prices over the weekend after the wyndham announcement. That doesn mean there will not be but there isn't as of now. As many know I've been tracking CWA resales for two years. I just ran the weekend CWA sales on ebay and the number are exactly inline and in several cases much higher than the last year's average. Larger contracts generally sell for less per 1k with smaller contracts selling for more $$ per 1k (similar with square footage sales prices on homes).

To those who are buying I like what Ron said earlier (and it is my buying strategy too) bid what you are willing to pay, win some, lose some but never over pay. I bid $3/1000 on every one. I rarely bid more and I've never bid over $4. I've missed a lot but I've won enough to get 3 million points at an average around $3/1k.

Here are the auctions that closed this weekend and today (only annual CWA which I've been tracking)

105,000 $740 $7.04/1k http://www.ebay.com/itm/WYNDHAM-CLU...370997?hash=item489bca49f5:g:bi0AAOSw4A5YzCZU

805,000 $4,431 $5.50/1k (incl closing) http://www.ebay.com/itm/WYNDHAM-CLU...D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

154,000 $760 $4.93/1k http://www.ebay.com/itm/154-000-CLU...638823?hash=item41c25b51a7:g:qTYAAOSwpkFY5S3Q

413,000 $2,551 $6,17/1k (incl fee) http://www.ebay.com/itm/413-000-Clu...D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

1,000,000 $4,325 (incl fee) $4.32/1k http://www.ebay.com/itm/1-000-000-C...177320?hash=item5b36309468:g:7R0AAOSwe7BW1Ig8


Feel free to review and please post anything I didn't see or corrections. I want us all to be well informed and help each other to NEVER over pay :)
 
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