Railman83
TUG Member
There are a lot of countervailing market forces at work as the changes Wyndham made will be appealing to some potential buyers and devastating to some existing owners.
If this "ends megarenting as we know it" for Wyndham, the points managers will not be able to offer value to their subordinate owners, and those owners will likely sell or use Ovation...they all have different stories, but I suspect for most the choice was use a points manager or sell, rather than use a points manager or vacation more. This would, after a few cycles of closing and transfer tend to create a massive supply glut that would drive prices down.
The mega renters that gave built a business model around this have plenty of systems to move to. My DVC mfs are $6 and I can rent for $14 and I don't need complicated gaming to get those margins. FYI the DVC mega guys will pay owners $13-14 and rent for $15-16...sounds thin but they carry zero inventory.
At the same time these wyndham changes would seem to add value to individual small (sub gold) contracts over the longer run. It would also remove the population at large option of being able to rent cheaper than an owner could pay for points (e.g. If you get a 4br Presidential for studio price there is plenty of margin now for mega renter and owner profit and the renter to get a deal.) I think a lot of owners, myself included, stop at a certain point and say $817k is enough and if run short, I'll rent...better than buying too many points that might go to waste. Same for current non-owners, why buy the cow?
I suspect after the initial glut is worked thru, prices will start to rise, though this might take years.
Thoughts?
If this "ends megarenting as we know it" for Wyndham, the points managers will not be able to offer value to their subordinate owners, and those owners will likely sell or use Ovation...they all have different stories, but I suspect for most the choice was use a points manager or sell, rather than use a points manager or vacation more. This would, after a few cycles of closing and transfer tend to create a massive supply glut that would drive prices down.
The mega renters that gave built a business model around this have plenty of systems to move to. My DVC mfs are $6 and I can rent for $14 and I don't need complicated gaming to get those margins. FYI the DVC mega guys will pay owners $13-14 and rent for $15-16...sounds thin but they carry zero inventory.
At the same time these wyndham changes would seem to add value to individual small (sub gold) contracts over the longer run. It would also remove the population at large option of being able to rent cheaper than an owner could pay for points (e.g. If you get a 4br Presidential for studio price there is plenty of margin now for mega renter and owner profit and the renter to get a deal.) I think a lot of owners, myself included, stop at a certain point and say $817k is enough and if run short, I'll rent...better than buying too many points that might go to waste. Same for current non-owners, why buy the cow?
I suspect after the initial glut is worked thru, prices will start to rise, though this might take years.
Thoughts?