New Travel Warning for Mexico...Thoughts?

[mikenk]

Mike's points are valid, and it would be nice to have accurate, more localized, statistics. Has anyone found any? Of any others to refute the link I posted? I'd like to see more recent and more accurate numbers, too. I think it's important to have valid facts that we may use to justify the warnings (or discount them) for reasons other than circumstantial anecdotal beliefs such as the feeling from locals about relative safety.

On a related topic, it seems many of you don't give credence to our government safety warnings. Is that for all of their warnings, or only those which you "know better"? For years many of you have ignored safety warnings about Mexico and posted that you know it's fine (this isn't the first thread on this topic)...to me, that indicates that your view is set on this issue as it doesn't appear you care what warnings are issued unless it contains sufficient details about the block or two you'll be visiting. And, of course, by Mike's response, and some of the other responses, it seems you think they (i.e. the government, State Dept, etc.) are the ones with the "agenda" you mention. I find that troubling on many levels.


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Let me give you a personal story. Remember a few years ago when the swine flu epidemic was becoming rampant and led most news stories - a media goldmine. I live in Texas; I think we were the first state to start having extensive cases. So here comes the government warnings: listed in the states in Mexico not to travel to was the state Cabo is in. We went anyway: guess what we learned when we arrived. There had not been any reported cases in that state at all - none. I actually don't believe there ever was one even after that. I fully believe these warnings are bureaucrats covering their collective asses based on media reports - not real data.

So no, I treat all government warnings as well as any media reports with extreme skepticism. I won't consider it valid until I can validate with data. I also believe in the phrase "you don't really understand unless you have "gone to Gemba"", that is, you have to go the the source to understand. Those of us that frequent Mexico are much better equipped to evaluate safety than people behind a desk. I also consider what the locals know way more worthwhile than what bureaucrats think.

Do I find it troubling that most Americans think the media has become biased and untrustworthy and that government agencies make decisions without due diligence? Damn right I do; I actually don't watch National news media anymore.

Just my opinion.
Mike

 

[Ken555]

Did you read this in full?

https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings/mexico-travel-warning.html

I find it interesting that much of this seems based on data from Mexico's government...not ours. Of particular note (for me):

Baja California Sur (includes Los Cabos and La Paz): Criminal activity and violence, including homicide, remain an issue throughout the state. Exercise caution as Baja California Sur continues to experience a high rate of homicides. According to Government of Mexico statistics, the state of Baja California Sur experienced an increase in homicide rates compared to the same period in 2016. While most of these homicides appeared to be targeted, criminal organization assassinations, turf battles between criminal groups have resulted in violent crime in areas frequented by U.S. citizens. Shooting incidents, in which innocent bystanders have been injured, have occurred during daylight hours.

I'd still like more accurate statistics about each location, so if you find any please post them.



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[Phydeaux]

Mike's points are valid, and it would be nice to have accurate, more localized, statistics. Has anyone found any? Of any others to refute the link I posted? I'd like to see more recent and more accurate numbers, too. I think it's important to have valid facts that we may use to justify the warnings (or discount them) for reasons other than circumstantial anecdotal beliefs such as the feeling from locals about relative safety.

On a related topic, it seems many of you don't give credence to our government safety warnings. Is that for all of their warnings, or only those which you "know better"? For years many of you have ignored safety warnings about Mexico and posted that you know it's fine (this isn't the first thread on this topic)...to me, that indicates that your view is set on this issue as it doesn't appear you care what warnings are issued unless it contains sufficient details about the block or two you'll be visiting. And, of course, by Mike's response, and some of the other responses, it seems you think they (i.e. the government, State Dept, etc.) are the ones with the "agenda" you mention. I find that troubling on many levels.


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Many of us simply don't need or care about statistics. I don't check statistics or warnings about the US cities and states I travel to before going there either. I rely on my own common sense, and what I know. I don't rely on someone else to tell me what is and what is not dangerous. I'll make those determinations for myself, thank you kindly. I also rely on situational awareness.

Life itself is not without risk. Every single time you start the engine of your car and leave your garage, you're taking a risk. Have you looked at those risks? Yikes, a person could drive themselves crazy if you need to analyze every move you make before doing so. No thanks.

As for these warnings about Mexico - I happen to agree that the U.S. over sensationalizes these and have been doing so for many years. Why? Because those U.S. dollars are being spent outside of the US, that's why.

To name just a few overblown BS warnings: Zika virus, swine flu, bad water, and the latest about "allegations" of tainted alcohol causing blackouts. Personally, I find the US State Department negligent, irresponsible and downright reckless to issue a advisory when the best they have are "allegations". Good grief! Not any proof of adulterated alcohol and they issue an advisory? Think about that for a moment. What's next, travel freezes based on hearsay??

 

[Ken555]

Many of us simply don't need or care about statistics. I don't check statistics or warnings about the US cities and states I travel to before going there either. I rely on my own common sense, and what I know. I don't rely on someone else to tell me what is and what is not dangerous. I'll make those determinations for myself, thank you kindly. I also rely on situational awareness.

Life itself is not without risk. Every single time to start the engine of your car and leave your garage, you're taking a risk. Have you looked at those risks? Yikes, a person could drive themselves crazy if you need to analyze every move you make before doing so. No thanks.

As for these warnings about Mexico - I happen to agree that the U.S. over sensationalizes these and have been doing so for many years. Why? Because those U.S. dollars are being spent outside of the US, that's why.

To name just a few overblown BS warnings: Zika virus, swine flu, bad water, and the latest about "allegations" of tainted alcohol causing blackouts. Personally, I find the US State Department negligent, irresponsible and downright reckless to issue a advisory when the best they have are "allegations". Good grief! Not any proof of adulterated alcohol and they issue an advisory? Think about that for a moment. What's next, travel freezes based on hearsay??

Without going down a rabbit hole, could you post some facts about these warnings being inaccurate? I agree that some tend to be overly cautious, but I don't discount them out of hand as you do. And, I think you know, I'm quite well traveled...this isn't new to me at all, I've lived and studied overseas and been to many countries. Being aware of my surroundings is second nature to me, but I also don't invite trouble by going places where there are growing issues of violence when alternatives exist. And for a beach holiday, since that's primarily what I do when in Mexico, it's just not worth it to me...I'd rather go to Hawaii. In fact, that's where I am today.


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[Phydeaux]

Without going down a rabbit hole, could you post some facts about these warnings being inaccurate? I agree that some tend to be overly cautious, but I don't discount them out of hand as you do. And, I think you know, I'm quite well traveled...this isn't new to me at all, I've lived and studied overseas and been to many countries. Being aware of my surroundings is second nature to me, but I also don't invite trouble by going places where there are growing issues of violence when alternatives exist. And for a beach holiday, since that's primarily what I do when in Mexico, it's just not worth it to me...I'd rather go to Hawaii. In fact, that's where I am today.


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No thanks, I'll pass. You've obviously missed my points. Please, do stay away from Mexico. Yes, you have choices, and Mexico will not miss you.

 

[Ken555]

No thanks, I'll pass. You've obviously missed my points. Please, do stay away from Mexico. Yes, you have choices, and Mexico will not miss you.

Um, no. I responded to your points by asking a relevant question. You are now doing me the discourtesy of ignoring my valid concerns. As in past threads, you give up when asked for proof. That says it all as far as I'm concerned.


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[mikenk]

Here is a journalist report that makes sense to me. You can generally make statistics say anything you want it to say. Until you have local valid data, you really have no clue as to relative safety. From a larger perspective, about 35 million tourists visited Mexico last year, how many were murdered, or robbed? Why don't we know that? My guess is very, very few.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-oppenheimer/article169187707.html

Ken, I hope you are having fun in Hawaii, but in reality, you really don't know whether you are safer or not (robbery / violence / whatever) than you would be as a tourist in Cancun or Cabo or Puerto Vallarta.

Mike

 

[Phydeaux]

Um, no. I responded to your points by asking a relevant question. You are now doing me the discourtesy of ignoring my valid concerns. As in past threads, you give up when asked for proof. That says it all as far as I'm concerned.


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And if you go back and read my post above, I already wrote: Many of us simply don't need or care about statistics.

Clear enough?

If you want proof, how about showing some of the proof of tainted alcohol?

And you wrote: "And for a beach holiday, since that's primarily what I do when in Mexico, it's just not worth it to me...I'd rather go to Hawaii."

So why are you wasting your time here??

 

[Ken555]

And if you go back and read my post above, I already wrote: Many of us simply don't need or care about statistics.

Clear enough?

If you want proof, how about showing some of the proof of tainted alcohol?

And you wrote: "And for a beach holiday, since that's primarily what I do when in Mexico, it's just not worth it to me...I'd rather go to Hawaii."

So why are you wasting your time here??

There's a few problems with this attitude.

1. I previously posted that I went to Mexico earlier this year and that I tentatively planned to visit the new Westin timeshare in Los Cabos next year.

2. While you might not care about factual data in determining the accuracy of events, which unfortunately is a trend in our country these days, many of us do. If you want to convince us that you're right, you need data. Show me the data.

3. I never defended tainted alcohol, or any other incident. I never defended the State Dept or the government. I simply asked questions and was curious that you somehow know better than they...which is simply unbelievable, quite frankly. There must be reasons they issue warnings, and that's what we are (or I thought we are) trying to discuss. Stil, you try to deflect your inability to provide facts by trying to make me the bad guy in asking me to defend a position I never took. Nice try.

4. It seems every time there is a similar thread on TUG when you are asked to support your position, you lash out at others emotionally and try to deflect and discount their opinions. Well, sorry, that won't work any more. Either support your position with facts beyond anecdotal experiences or admit you simply don't know.

5. Your encouragement of others to ignore governmental warnings could convince others to visit an unsafe area and get in trouble. I think this is simply absurd. The government may be overly cautious, but that's their job. They are trying to avoid problems, admitted in the warning that their staff may not be able to respond speedily to issues due to their travel restrictions (did you see that part?) and therefore US citizens should expect less support in the event of need.

I'm continually amazed that the apparent knowledge on TUG about Mexico is superior to that of the US government. I'd be more likely to believe it if you have facts to support your opinion.

So, perhaps next time you won't insult others and instead just say you don't know when, you know, you don't know. Since you don't.


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[Phydeaux]

I can find a number of problems with your attitude Ken, but I'm not going to waste my time in calling them out.

You've chosen to ignore what others have written, and instead appear intent on taking things personally, and allowing yourself to become offended. That's your issue, not mine.

You're big on the need for proof, so why not show us proof that you are safer wherever you are in Hawaii now than say Los Cabos. After you, please.

And since you felt I "lashed out", could you please provide an example? A copy/paste will suffice.

 

[Ken555]

I can find a number of problems with your attitude Ken, but I'm not going to waste my time in calling them out.

You've chosen to ignore what others have written, and instead appear intent on taking things personally, and allowing yourself to become offended. That's your issue, not mine.

You're big on the requirement for proof, so why not show us proof that you are safer wherever you are in Hawaii now than say Los Cabos. After you, please.

Sorry, no. I'm about to head to the beach instead.

I've already posted links and facts. You haven't posted any. In normal discussions, we exchange factual info and wait for the other party to contribute before spending more time on research. You haven't earned more of my time yet on this topic since you continue to insult me and others who agree with me by not doing us the courtesy of post any facts at all. At this point I think you just want to waste my time. It's too bad you can't support your own beliefs without disparaging others.


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[Phydeaux]

Sorry, no. I'm about to head to the beach instead.

I've already posted links and facts. You haven't posted any. In normal discussions, we exchange factual info and wait for the other party to contribute before spending more time on research. You haven't earned more of my time yet on this topic since you continue to insult me and others who agree with me by not doing us the courtesy of post any facts at all. At this point I think you just want to waste my time. It's too bad you can't support your own beliefs without disparaging others.


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Predictable. When you cannot backup your own argument, you insult and retreat. Adios!

 

[Ken555]

Predictable. When you cannot backup your own argument, you insult and retreat. Adios!

Too funny! You're projecting...that's exactly what you did. We all know it...


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[T-Dot-Traveller]

Mike's points are valid, and it would be nice to have accurate, more localized, statistics. Has anyone found any. .........

it seems you think they (i.e. the government, State Dept, etc.) are the ones with the "agenda" you mention. I find that troubling on many levels.


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Which came first " spin or governments ?

What we are talking about is interpreting - history . Even if that " history " is last weeks news .
< and some folks may change vacation travel plans because of " it " >

I live in Canada and grew up in New York
Who " won " the War of 1812 - there are two versions of the answer .

Finally I will add - many of us on TUG were teenagers in the 1960's . Were there government "agendas"
then - I think so . Do those " formative years influence my critical thinking - absolutely .


I hope I have kept this non political & non - controversial .

If you are not confortable travelling to somewhere / anywhere - find a different destination
We are booked for 2 weeks in NV / PV Feb. 2018 .

 

[rpennisi]

I have been reading and writing posts on TUG for seven years, and traveling to Mexico for 15 years. In those seven years on TUG, I have read thousands of posts.
I don't know if this is a usable statistic for you Ken, but I can't recall anyone ever saying they were drugged, served tainted alcohol, were robbed, assaulted or knew anyone who had been while in Mexico.

I can recall one instance of an iPad being missing from luggage.

There have been many posts of people being taken advantage of at sales presentations, but that surely doesn't count.

If we know that 10 or 20 million foreigners visit Mexico yearly and except for (from a previously referred to article) around 60 reported problems with alcohol and or assaults occurring that, to me, is a statistic that overwhelmingly shows that Mexico is safe for visitors.

To me, those are the localized statistics that many want. Reports from Tuggers who visit local areas of Mexico (as I have) like Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Vallarta, Nuevo Vallarta, Mazatlan, San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas inform us that Mexico is safe for tourists.

 

[easyrider]

There are many crimes committed against tourists in Mexico, no doubt about this. Considering that 35 million tourists visited Mexico compared to the maybe 1000 - 3000 reported crimes committed against this group of 35 million, the odds are pretty good that a tourist will safely come and go from a Mexican vacation. Add in the fact that most of the crime is committed against those tourists affiliated with the drugs, prostitution and organized crime make the odds of a safe trip even better for the average tourist heading to Mexico.

I doubt that crime is a big factor for safety in tourist areas Mexico. I think that accidents, medical conditions and age has more to do with coming home safely from a Mexico trip than crime.

Bill

 

[Ken555]

I have been reading and writing posts on TUG for seven years, and traveling to Mexico for 15 years. In those seven years on TUG, I have read thousands of posts.
I don't know if this is a usable statistic for you Ken, but I can't recall anyone ever saying they were drugged, served tainted alcohol, were robbed, assaulted or knew anyone who had been while in Mexico.

I can recall one instance of an iPad being missing from luggage.

There have been many posts of people being taken advantage of at sales presentations, but that surely doesn't count.

If we know that 10 or 20 million foreigners visit Mexico yearly and except for (from a previously referred to article) around 60 reported problems with alcohol and or assaults occurring that, to me, is a statistic that overwhelmingly shows that Mexico is safe for visitors.

To me, those are the localized statistics that many want. Reports from Tuggers who visit local areas of Mexico (as I have) like Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Vallarta, Nuevo Vallarta, Mazatlan, San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas inform us that Mexico is safe for tourists.

I think anecdotal comments are valid but don't show the whole story. I'm not seeking problems, I'm searching for accurate info.

As for these discussions on TUG, it's been obvious for years that whenever Mexico safety topics are discussed there's a core group of Mexico travelers that defend it regardless of the news. Those opinions are meaningless now since those individuals have never agreed there is reason to be concerned. It shows their lack of objectivity. For myself, I want to travel to Mexico (and have done so as recently as earlier this year) but there are definitively safer places to visit. I'm more than willing to be swayed based on evidence, and that's all I've been asking for here...and some don't seem to grasp that. I appreciate your comments.


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[x3 skier]

I refrained from entering this for a while since it is somewhat futile to convince anyone based on their personal feelings of safety or fear.

My 2¢ is in one year, out of some 20 or 30 million (pick your Million) visitors, 100 or 1000 or 10000 (pick your decimal point) incidents of tourists encountering some serious problem whilst in Mexico (U.K., Aruba, Chicago or wherever), would not deter me from a visit to just about anywhere I wanted to go for whatever reason I choose (except a war zone like Syria).

My first encounter of violence was when the IRA was planting bombs in London. Never really bothered me then and not much has since then because I might be run over by a bus at home tomorrow.

Statistics, data, rumor, warnings are just things to look at and make your own decisions. I even buy a Power Ball ticket once in a while with the odds of ten gazillion to one against me

Cheers

 

[Ken555]

I refrained from entering this for a while since it is somewhat futile to convince anyone based on their personal feelings of safety or fear.

My 2¢ is in one year, out of some 20 or 30 million (pick your Million) visitors, 100 or 1000 or 10000 (pick your decimal point) incidents of tourists encountering some serious problem whilst in Mexico (U.K., Aruba, Chicago or wherever), would not deter me from a visit to just about anywhere I wanted to go for whatever reason I choose (except a war zone like Syria).

My first encounter of violence was when the IRA was planting bombs in London. Never really bothered me then and not much has since then because I might be run over by a bus at home tomorrow.

Statistics, data, rumor, warnings are just things to look at and make your own decisions. I even buy a Power Ball ticket once in a while with the odds of ten gazillion to one against me

Cheers

I absolutely agree with you. However, facts and statistics, though perhaps incomplete, are still the best objective gauge for making the determination if it's safe or not, in our individual opinion. It seems a group here don't even want to learn those statistics, likely due to a variety of reasons, and which has changed the tenor of this thread from one seeking information to one debating the importance of facts itself.

FYI, my early experiences abroad of violence occurred in Israel and also, like you, in London due to the IRA. Going to a "dangerous" area doesn't scare me unnecessarily, but I also don't voluntarily enter such areas if there are acceptable alternatives with less chance of an incident. Unlike others, I don't have my blinders on.


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[Quimby4]

Our media does not even have the whole picture with the safety and medical concerns in Mexico. US Law Enforcement has been receiving special bulletins that aren't released to the public. Without going into graphic gorey details I will tell you that i have cancelled 3 trips to Mexico in 2018. I am losing well over $1,000 in points and fees. Cancun, Puerto Vallarta and Cabo were our 3 destinations. Each person has to make their own decisions. Personally as a wife and mother, my life and health is too valuable to add the risk of traveling there. Pls save your Detroit and Chicago crime arguments, I dont go there either

 

[klpca]

Hey guys, I don't think there's going to be any mutual agreement on a TUG thread about anyone's personal safety vacationing in Mexico. Everyone will make up their own minds using whatever data they find on the internet. For a more local perspective, I would suggest checking out the Gringo Gazette. That's the only English-speaking news source that I know of. I'm sure there's probably more I just don't know where they're located.

I looked up a news story recently to refresh my memory. There was a German tourist who was killed in a shooting in Union Square in San Francisco back in 2010. It was a gang shooting, I think, and she was in the wrong place at the wrong time. I would have thought Union Square (or San Francisco for that matter) was as safe as it gets. It really can happen anywhere.

Do I think that Mexico is perfectly safe? Nope. But will I continue to return? Yes. But I plan on sticking close to the resort. I don't speak Spanish which puts me at a distinct disadvantage, and I'm not really sure where the "bad parts" of town are, but I'm pretty sure they're not at my resort.

What I don't understand is why everyone is so determined to change everyone else's mind on an internet thread. Go if you want, don't go if you don't want.

 

[mikenk]

I think anecdotal comments are valid but don't show the whole story. I'm not seeking problems, I'm searching for accurate info.

As for these discussions on TUG, it's been obvious for years that whenever Mexico safety topics are discussed there's a core group of Mexico travelers that defend it regardless of the news. Those opinions are meaningless now since those individuals have never agreed there is reason to be concerned. It shows their lack of objectivity. For myself, I want to travel to Mexico (and have done so as recently as earlier this year) but there are definitively safer places to visit. I'm more than willing to be swayed based on evidence, and that's all I've been asking for here...and some don't seem to grasp that. I appreciate your comments.


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We are all searching for accurate information - but we are not getting it. You seem to take the state department warnings and media news as facts; many of us see them as simply opinions that in our experiences are not valid. It in no way shows a lack of objectivity; it shows a sense of skepticism when what is presented does not match what we have personally experienced. BTW, anything I have personally experienced will always trump anything someone tells me not backed by real data.

Sure there are safer places to visit - the safest is to just stay home or maybe visit a local state park. It is certainly not to visit major US cities (see my earlier post from the Miami Herald reporter).

Here is a homework assignment for you; Out of 35 million or so tourists that visit Mexico a year, how many are murdered or even robbed; how does that compare to tourists in cities of the USA or around the world. If you can't find the answer, then it is all speculation. You can certainly choose to make your decisions on the speculative opinions from others, but realize that those of us that have personal experience don't really value speculation that doesn't match our experiences.

 

[buzglyd]

I think the only thing we can clearly state is that problems are rising.

I just returned from Cabo San Lucas and rode out Lidia. It was a total mess there.

We fished prior to the storm arriving and the captain clearly stated that crime has been increasing. He was thankful that the drug gangs were not engaging in extortion on small businesses in the area. (That’s a nice taco stand you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it).

I don’t thing the warring factions have any interest in tourists but caught in the crossfire still leaves you dead.

There was a greater military presence in the area than I have ever seen so clearly the government is taking it seriously. It’s not just evil State Department innuendo.

I caught six delicious Dorado so clearly I’m going to return.

 

[mikenk]

I think the only thing we can clearly state is that problems are rising.

Yes, I agree, I think it is safe to say that the drug warfare is expanding. The thing we don't know if that escalation really amounts to a higher risk level (other than miniscule) to tourists. All the warnings are based on a few more incidents in Cabo / Cancun so that you might get caught in a crossfire. You are way more likely to be killed in a traffic accident on the way to the airport than get caught in a gunfight, That said, in those areas, I would be more likely to stay nearer the resorts and not wander off to non tourist locations.

For me to stop going to Mexico, it would take more than just a few incidents, it would take data showing that tourists are being targeted and dying at an increasing rate - not just a few incidents.

In gun-happy Texas, there are growing incidents of drive by shootings (many road rage). I am not going to stop driving as the odds of getting shot is still minuscule; However, I certainly will keep my middle finger to myself to not be targeted.

The bottom line for me is I believe Mexico is realistically as safe for tourists as ever statistically. Certainly, I will probably not venture out as far as normal in those towns that have had incidences. I will continue to trust the locals as the best source of safety information. I will keep going as I love the resorts and the Mexican culture and people.


Mike

 

[MuranoJo]

Our media does not even have the whole picture with the safety and medical concerns in Mexico. US Law Enforcement has been receiving special bulletins that aren't released to the public. Without going into graphic gorey details I will tell you that i have cancelled 3 trips to Mexico in 2018. I am losing well over $1,000 in points and fees. Cancun, Puerto Vallarta and Cabo were our 3 destinations. Each person has to make their own decisions. Personally as a wife and mother, my life and health is too valuable to add the risk of traveling there. Pls save your Detroit and Chicago crime arguments, I dont go there either

Who is privvy to this info. (just law enforcement?) and how could we learn more about this? Thanks.